04-16-24 |
Warriors -1.5 v. Kings |
Top |
94-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (543) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (544) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Golden State (46-36) has won four of their last five games after their 123-116 win against Utah as an 11-point favorite on Sunday. Sacramento (46-36) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 121-82 victory against Portland as a 17.5-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to play the winner of the Los Angeles Lakers-New Orleans Pelicans game on Thursday to determine the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs; the loser’s season ends.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Steve Kerr has Golden State playing their best basketball heading into the postseason — they have won ten of their last 12 games. In their last ten games, the Warriors rank seventh in the NBA with a Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin of +8.1 which is a big improvement over their Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin of +2.4 for the entire season which ranks 13th. They rank ninth in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they rose to fifth in that metric in their last ten games. They are making 50.6% of their shots in their last five games. The improvement in defense has been even more pronounced. While they rank 13th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency for the season, they rise to ninth in their last ten games. They have held their last five opponents to 45.3% shooting which has resulted in 110.4 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are a 1.3% and a -4.8 PPG improvement against their season defensive averages. They did allow the Jazz to make 51.7% of their shots on Sunday but that was the worst defensive game in their last 17 contests. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after winning two of their last three contests. After struggling on the road last season with the negative vibes coming from Jordan Poole impacting the chemistry of the team, Kerr has emphasized better play away from home this season. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 road games in the second half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. Sacramento held the collection of G-Leaguers wearing Trail Blazers’ uniforms to just 31.6% shooting on Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. But the Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 95 in their last contest. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a win by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 20 or more points. Sacramento is missing two key pieces to what was already a limited rotation of players. Kevin Huerter has only played in two minutes in the last 16 games after injuring his left shoulder on March 18th. Malik Monk has played just one minute in their last ten games after he sprained his right MCL. Both losses are critical. Huerter is their best 3-point shooter. His presence on the perimeter opens up space for De’Aaron Fox to drive the lane — and he is an important target for Domantas Sabonis in his point forward role. Monk provides instant offense off the bench and is in line to win the Sixth Man of the Year award. In their last five games, they are only making 44.7% of their shots which has resulted in 112.6 Points-Per-Game — and those marks represent -3.0% and -4.0 PPG drops from their season averages.
FINAL TAKE: The Warriors will be without Gary Payton II with his left calf strain — but he has missed their last three games as well. These two teams split their four regular season games but the Kings won the most recent two contests after a 134-133 victory on the road on January 25th. Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games when avenging a loss where they surrendered 110 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when motivated by double revenge. 25* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Year with the Golden State Warriors (543) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-12-24 |
Suns v. Kings +4.5 |
Top |
108-107 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (584) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (583). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (45-35) has lost two games in a row as well as four of their last five after their 135-123 upset loss to New Orleans as a 1-point favorite last night. Phoenix (47-33) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 124-108 win in Los Angeles against the Clippers as an 11-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento misses the injured Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter which leaves their depth pretty thin. Huerter helps with the spacing on the court since he is primarily a three-point shooter. Monk provided instant offense off the bench and may still win the Sixth Man of the Year award. But the Kings still have De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis -- and they did make 54.8% of their shots last night against the Pelicans. Head coach Mike Brown will want a better effort on defense after they allowed New Orleans to make 57.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 31 games. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 55% or more of their shots including seven of their ten games under those circumstances this season. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing 130 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, the Kings have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a loss on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after losing two or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Sacramento still has plenty to play for this weekend as the regular season ends on Sunday. They have clinched a spot in the playoffs — but they are fighting for positioning for the Play-In Tournament next week with them being tied with Golden State and the Los Angeles Lakers for the 8th through 10th spots. This is only the fifth time this season when the Kings are playing at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of those 4 previous games. Phoenix enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last four games by making 48.4% of their shots against the Clippers on Wednesday. But the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a double-digit victory against a Pacific Division rival. And while that final score finished Over the 218.5-point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Phoenix stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road when a pick ‘em or favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: The Suns score 116.2 Points-Per-Game — and Sacramento has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 116 PPG. The Kings score 116.6 PPG — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams who score 116 or more PPG. 25* NBA Bailout Game of the Month with the Sacramento Kings (584) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (583). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-10-24 |
Magic v. Bucks UNDER 214.5 |
Top |
99-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). THE SITUATION: Orlando (46-33) has lost two of their last three games after their 118-106 upset loss at Houston as a 3-point favorite last night. Milwaukee (48-31) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 104-91 victory against Boston as a 3.5-point favorite yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks broke their string of upset losses by making 53.1% of their shots against the Celtics which was the best shooting effort in their last five games - albeit against a Boston squad playing without Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis defending the interior. But the bigger news was Giannis Antetokounmpo leaving the game in the third quarter with a left calf injury. While it does not look like a season-ender, Antetokounmpo will not take the court tonight. That leaves the Milwaukee offense guard heavy which is not a good look when facing this Magic defense that has outstanding defenders at the guard position. The Bucks raced out to a 63-43 halftime lead yesterday — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after going into halftime with a 15-point or better lead. They went into halftime with a 61-50 lead against New York in their previous game — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after owning two straight double-digit halftime leads. Milwaukee has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Head coach Doc Rivers will want his team to maintain their recent defensive intensity playing without Antetokounmpo. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. They have held their last five opponents to 111.6 Points-Per-Game which is -4.9 PPG below their season average. But the Bucks are only making 45.1% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 107.6 PP — and those marks are -3.7% and -11.9 PPG below their season average. Milwaukee has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Orlando allowed the Spurs to make 52.3% of their shots last night which was the third straight game where their opponent made at least 50% of their shots against them. The Magic have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots — and they have played 4 straight Unders after allowing three straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. They have played 6 straight Unders after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss by double-digits. The Under is 19-12-1 in their 32 games playing without a day of rest. And while last night’s final score finished Over the 215.5-point total, Orlando has played 23 of their last 35 games on the road Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Franz Wagner did not play in that game as he is nursing a right ankle injury that leaves him questionable tonight — and Gary Harris is out dealing with an injury. This team has slowed things down on offense by playing at the 27th slowest pace in the league since the All-Star break. Led by Jalen Suggs who is making the first or second All-Defensive team this year, Orlando ranks third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Magic have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Milwaukee has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams are still playing for playoff seeding — so the intensity will be high. These two teams last played on December 21st in the 118-114 victory by the Bucks in Milwaukee — and Orlando has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-09-24 |
Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
102-87 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (515) and the Memphis Grizzlies (516). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (19-59) has lost three of their last four games after their 133-126 loss to Philadelphia as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (27-51) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 116-96 loss to Philadelphia as a 14-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Led by their rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs are still playing hard late in the season despite being out of the playoff race. They had covered six games in a row before the point spread loss to the surging 76ers with Joel Embiid back from injury. The biggest improvement for this San Antonio team has been on the defensive end of the court. In their last 15 games, the Spurs rank 10th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is a big jump from their 22nd ranking for the entire season. However, the offense has only improved to 25th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last 15 games from their 26th ranking overall — so credit goes to their defense for their improved competitiveness. San Antonio has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. One of the things holding the offense back has been the season-ending injury to Devin Vassell who was scoring 19.5 Points-Per-Game. They are only making 44.0% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 106.1 PPG — and those numbers are -2.0% and -6.2 PPG below their season averages. The Spurs have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s. They have played 4 straight Unders when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Memphis allowed the Sixers to nail 51.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests. The Grizzlies have still held their last five opponents to just 106.6 PPG which is -6.1 PPG below their season average. But this team is a M*A*S*H unit with a long list of injured players out for tonight’s game including Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, and Luke Kennard joining Ja Morant unable to take the court. Memphis is scoring only 102.6 PPG in their last five games which is -3.3 PPG below their season average. The Grizzlies have played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 100 points in their last game. And in their last 16 games after winning two of their last three games, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Memphis stays at home where they have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record — and the Grizzlies have played 24 of their last 36 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (515) and the Memphis Grizzlies (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-08-24 |
Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 146 |
Top |
60-75 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (675) and the Connecticut Huskies (676) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Purdue (34-4) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 63-50 victory against North Carolina State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. Connecticut (36-3) has won 12 games in a row after their 86-72 victory against Alabama as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are outstanding on the offensive end of the court — but I suspect the strength of their play on defense will dictate the flow of this game. Purdue ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. In their 12 games played on a neutral court, they are allowing -5.0 fewer points per adjusted possessions. They only made 40.0% of their shots on Saturday — but it was their defense that carried the day as they held the Wolfpack to just 36.8% shooting in their 13-point victory. The Boilermakers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They have covered the point spread in all five of their games in the Big Dance — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. UConn ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on a neutral court. They are giving up -10.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions in their 11 games played on a neutral court. The Huskies have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on the road after a win by 10 or more points. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up win — and they have played 22 of their last 34 road games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while UConn has made at least 50% of their shots in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Huskies have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Boilermakers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — and the Huskies have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 25* CBB Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (675) and the Connecticut Huskies (676). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-06-24 |
NC State v. Purdue -9 |
Top |
50-63 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (674) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673) in the Final Four Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Purdue (33-4) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 72-66 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Sunday. North Carolina State (26-14) has won nine straight games after their 76-64 upset victory against Duke as a 7-point underdog in their Elite Eight game on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: NC State held the Blue Devils to just 32.2% shooting last Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. Getting Kyle Filipowski into foul trouble helped — and Duke made only five of their 20 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc. The Wolfpack’s improbable run after trailing a bad Louisville team at halftime in the opening round of the ACC Tournament has included seven upset victories. They have survived two overtime games. And they have probably been fortunate with opponent 3-point shooting woes since their last eight opponents have made only 26.2% of their shots behind the arc despite posting a 35.8% opponent shooting percentage from 3-point land after rallying to defeat the Cardinals a month ago. I expect the bubble to burst tonight — and in a big way — against this Boilermakers team. NC State’s run has been centered on the improved and inspired play of D.J. Burns whose playground post-up moves have baffled opponents. But the 275-pounder’s mojo is not going to fly when now being guarded by Zach Edey, who has seven inches and 25 pounds on him. Burns has thrived on taking advantage of opposing defenders leaning in on him to slow him down since he has the agility to spin by those guys. Edey does not need to do that — he’s just going to stand there and raise his arms. He doesn’t even draw fouls because simply staying vertical is imposing enough on potential shooters. Burns can attempt to attack the rim — and Edey’s 7.0% block rate of opposing shots he defends comes into play. The Wolfpack face an even bigger challenge trying to defend Edey — the conundrum is a huge challenge for head coach Kevin Keatts. If he uses Burns to try to defend him, he risks getting him into foul trouble since Edey is so good at drawing fouls. Opposing big men have fouled out in 29 of the 37 games Purdue has played this season. Burns is too small to stop Edey’s hook shot. And he’s slow. Keatts could deploy Mohamed Diarra who is an inch taller than Burns — but he is spotting Edey 85 pounds. Another problem would then be that Burns would be forced to defend on the perimeter (probably against the 6’6 Mason Gillis) since Purdue plays the other four players with Edey out on the perimeter where they all can make 3s. Keatts could try a zone defense to bypass these problems — but then Edey will have even more room to crash the boards for second-shot opportunities. He ranks third in the country by pulling down 18.5% of his team’s missed shots when he is on the court. And this potential zone would open up more 3-point opportunities for the Boilermakers who rank second in the nation by nailing 40.6% of their 3s. Purdue has scored 1.12 Points-Per-Possession in the rare times teams have attempted to deploy a zone defense against them. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. And teams in the NCAA Tournament coming off a win that eliminated Duke from the Big Dance have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their next 9 games. Purdue only made 45.3% of their shots against the tough Volunteers defense last week which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Boilermakers did control the boards by out-rebounding Tennessee by a 47-26 margin — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by 20 or more boards. Purdue has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 80% or more of their games. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games in the Big Dance under head coach Matt Painter when favored by nine or more points. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year on the Purdue Boilermakers (674) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-05-24 |
Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 226 |
Top |
106-108 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Dallas Mavericks (548). THE SITUATION: Golden State (42-34) has won six games in a row after their 133-110 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite last night. Dallas (46-30) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-92 win against Atlanta as an 11.5-point favorite yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 48.6% of their 3s last night en route to a 58.7% shooting percentage which is their best mark of the season. Expect a visit from the Regression Gods tonight — especially with both Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga questionable with nagging knee injuries. As it is, Golden State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Warriors have covered the point spread in two straight games as well as five of their last six contests. They have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while Golden State has outrebounded their last two opponents by at least ten boards, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after outrebounding two or more straight opponents by ten or more rebounds. This is their third game since Tuesday — and they have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in four days. Head coach Steve Kerr has his team amping up their intensity on the defensive end of the court as the postseason approaches. They have shaved off from than 7.0 points from their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number to improve to fifth in the league in that metric. They have held their last five opponents to 42.7% shooting which has resulted in just 102.6 Points-Per-Game that they have allowed — and those numbers are -3.9% and 13.0 PPG below their season averages. But they are also scoring 114.0 PPG over those five games which is -4.0 PPG below their season averages. The Mavericks live-and-die by the 3-point shot. Golden State ranks sixth in the NBA in 3-point defense by holding their opponents to 35.7% shooting from behind the arc — and they are even better on the road by holding their home hosts to 34.9% shooting from 3. Dallas has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a win on their home court. They have also played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Mavericks have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. Head coach Jason Kidd has also overseen a dramatic transformation of the play of his team’s defense. The acquisitions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline gave this team a much-needed wing defender and rim protector. Dallas ranks third in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games. They have not allowed their last six opponents to shoot better than 45.6% from the field — and their last nine opponents have not eclipsed 107 points with three of those foes held to 97 or fewer points. They have held their last five opponents to 42.0% shooting which has resulted in 101.0 PPG which is -5.4% and -14.8 PPG below their season averages. But the Mavs are scoring 114.6 PPG in their last five games which is -3.7 PPG below their season average — and now Luka Doncic is questionable to play this game without a day of rest given “right knee” issues. Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. They have played 8 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total The Warriors have played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Dallas Mavericks (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-04-24 |
Indiana State -2.5 v. Seton Hall |
Top |
77-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana State Sycamores (681) minus the points versus the Seton Hall Pirates (682) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Indiana State (32-6) reached the finals of this tournament with their 100-90 victory against Utah as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Seton Hall (24-12) advanced from their semifinal contest in an 84-67 victory against Georgia as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SYCAMORES MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana State allowed the Utes to make 52.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 33 games. The Sycamores have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. And while they have won 10 of their last 11 games with their lone setback being against Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference title game that kept them from making the NCAA Tournament (despite 28 wins at the time), they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. Indiana State does sacrifice defense for their explosive offense most of the time — but there is one area that head coach Josh Schertz has his team focus on when playing on the defensive end of the court. The Sycamores limit their opponents to pulling down only 23.9% of their missed shots when they are playing away from home which is the 11th-best mark in the nation. Their defensive rebounding will be critical tonight since the Pirates rank 19th in the county by rebounding 35.6% of their missed shots. They held Utah to just five offensive rebounds on Tuesday — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after not allowing their opponent to pull down more than five offensive rebounds in their last game. Indiana State will win this game with their innovative offense under Schertz. They play at the 26th fastest pace in the nation by averaging only 15.9 seconds per possession. The Sycamores lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 59.9% — and they lead the nation by making 62.6% of their shots inside the arc. They fall all the way down 11th in the country with their 38.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they rank sixth in the nation by taking 49.3% of their shots from behind the arc. Led by the bespectacled Robbie Avila, they have scored at least 80 points in nine of their last eleven games. Seton Hall wants to slow this game down and engage in some bully-ball — but the spacing that the Sycamores engage in on offense takes away their opponent's ability to muck things up in the lane. The Pirates only have a 47.5% effective field goal percentage when on the road which ranks 264th in the nation. If they cannot get second chance opportunities, they will struggle to score points. As it is, they rank only 112th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. They do not force turnovers to increase their potential scoring opportunities either — they rank 130th in the nation by forcing turnovers in only 17.7% of their opponent’s possessions. Seton Hall has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing for the second time in seven days.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games in tournament action — and the Sycamores have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when favored. While I think the “home court” edge for Indiana State is overplayed a bit since they are playing on a neutral court that both teams just played on, it certainly does not hurt our cause that the crowd will be mostly cheering on the home state Sycamores. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year with the Indiana State Sycamores (681) minus the points versus the Seton Hall Pirates (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-02-24 |
Georgia v. Seton Hall UNDER 145.5 |
Top |
67-84 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (663) and the Seton Hall Pirates (664) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Georgia (20-16) has won four of their last five games after their 79-77 upset victory at Ohio State as a 9-point underdog last Tuesday. Seton Hall (23-12) has won five of their last six games after their 91-68 victory against UNLV as a 6-point favorite last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs shot 47.8% from the field against the Buckeyes which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Georgia ranked just tenth in the SEC and currently ranks 105th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. In their five games played on a neutral court, the Bulldogs are scoring -12.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Georgia has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. Their game with Ohio State finished Over the 150-point Total — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when coming off a game that finished Over the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s, the Buckeyes have palled 8 of these games Under the Total. Seton Hall made 56.5% of their shots against the Runnin’ Rebels which was the best shooting effort in their last 19 contests. But the Pirates have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points on their home court. Seton Hall beat North Texas by a 72-58 score in their previous game in the NIT — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two straight games at home by double-digits. They have played 7 straight games Under the Total after winning two games in a row where they covered as the favorite. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. On the road, the Pirates score -9.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions.
FINAL TAKE: Seton Hall has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when listed as the favorite or a pick ‘em. Georgia has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games in tournament settings. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (663) and the Seton Hall Pirates (664). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-31-24 |
NC State v. Duke -6.5 |
Top |
76-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
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At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (658) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (657) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (27-8) has won six of their last eight games after their 54-51 upset win against Houston as a 4-point underdog on Friday. North Carolina State (25-14) has won eight games in a row after their 67-58 upset win against Marquette as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke advanced despite making only 40.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 21 games. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Head coach Job Scheyer has his team playing their best defense of the entire season right now. They have not allowed an opponent to generate an effective field goal percentage higher than 43.3%. Their three opponents in the Big Dance have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency no higher than 85.2 — and Duke only had two better defensive games than that in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency before this tournament started. The Wolfpack make 45.1% of their shots — but the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots. Duke has covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for the second time in three days. On the road, the Blue Devils are scoring +2.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. Duke has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games in March. And while NC State is outscoring their opponents by +4.1 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. NC State played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Golden Eagles to just 33.3% shooting. Marquette scored at just an 0.84 Points-Per-Possession rate despite ranking 21st in the nation by scoring at an adjusted 1.18 PPP rate. Some of that was just bad shooting luck for the Golden Eagles who could not hit the side of a barn from outside as they only made 4 of 31 shots from behind the arc despite getting tons of open looks. The Wolfpack’s opponents in the Big Dance are making only 23 of their 97 shots from behind the arc. ACC opponents made 36.2% of their 3s against NC State — so I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods regarding the 23.7% shooting percentage of the Wolfpack’s opponents in this tournament. Of concern for NC State is that they only scored at a 0.97 PPG rate on Friday — and they missed six of their 12 free throws. The Wolfpack has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not making more than 53% of their free throws in their last game. They held Marquette to only 24 points in the first half — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time in three days. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games (with six upset victories in that run), NC State has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games.
FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (658) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (657). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-30-24 |
Illinois v. Connecticut OVER 155 |
Top |
52-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
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At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (651) and the Connecticut Huskies (652) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Illinois (29-8) has won seven straight games after their 72-69 upset victory against Iowa State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. Connecticut (34-3) has won ten games in a row with their 82-52 victory against San Diego State as a 12-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at TD Garden Arena in Boston, Massachusetts.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Illini played their best game on defense in their last five contests by holding the Cyclones to just 39.7% shooting from the field. But defense is not a staple for this Illinois team that ranks 98th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. When playing away from home, they are still allowing +5.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions — and that is the 316th worst drop in efficiency when compared to a team’s defensive efficiency when playing at home. They rank 129th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their 19 games away from home — and that is not simply a function of playing in hostile environments since they also rank 172nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their eight games played on a neutral court. To make matters worse for head coach Brad Underwood, it is very difficult to prepare for Huskies’ head coach Dan Hurley’s complex offensive sets — especially with only one day to prepare. The Illini only made 42.1% of their shots against the tough Iowa State defense — and that was the worst shooting effort in their last five contests. The Fighting Illini are a powerhouse on that end of the court. They lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last ten games — and they also lead the nation in that metric when playing away from home. They score +12.3 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home which is the biggest jump in the nation. They make 47.6% of their shots including 36.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 85.6 Points-Per-Game on the road which is +1.4 more PPG than their season average. But they allow their opponents to make 45.0% of their shots including 36.1% of their 3s resulting in 78.1 PPG which is +4.9 PPG above their season average. Illinois has played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court. UConn made 46.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Huskies are scoring 82.7 PPG in this Big Dance despite only making 30.6% of their 3-pointers. They make 36.2% of their 3s on the season while ranking number in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. When playing on the road, they fall to second in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, just behind the Illini. They outrebounded the Aztecs by a 50-29 margin — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after outrebounding their previous opponent by +20 or more boards. But the Huskies have played four straight Unders on the strength of their defense and they have not allowed more than 58 points in those four games. A few things about this Under trend. UConn has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two or more games in a row — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have won all four of those games by at least 16 points — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning four or more games in a row by double-digits. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who score 84 or more PPG. On the road, they are also giving up +5.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions than when they are at home. The Huskies have a great roster but they probably lack the player who can slow down the Illini’s Terrence Shannon.
FINAL TAKE: UConn attempts 24 shots from behind the arc per game — and Illinois has played 13 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who take at least 21 shots from 3-point range per game. The Fighting Illini have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total against winning teams — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (651) and the Connecticut Huskies (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-24 |
Creighton v. Tennessee UNDER 146.5 |
Top |
75-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
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At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Blue Jays (641) and the Tennessee Volunteers (642) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Creighton (25-9) has won five of their last six games after their 86-73 victory in double-overtime against Oregon as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (26-8) has won nine of their last 11 games after their 62-58 win against Texas as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bluejays only made 38.7% of their shots against the Ducks last weekend — but they did convert on 15 of their 39 shots (38.5%) of their shots from 3-point range (many of them in the second double overtime period to ruin our Oregon play). Creighton lives and dies by their 3-point shooting — they rank seventh in the nation by taking 48.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Their reliance on 3s could spell trouble when facing this stout Volunteers defense that ranks 28th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 30.9% of their 3-pointers. The Bluejays score -10.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home — that discrepancy is the 352nd worst split in the nation. The problem for Creighton is they lack a Plan B if their 3s are not falling. They are dead last in the nation by forcing turnovers in 11.1% of their opponent’s possessions. They only rebound 26.2% of their missed shots, ranking 273rd in the nation. They are the only team left in the Big Dance that has a negative Shot Volume mark relative to what they surrender. But head coach Greg McDermott’s squad is a good defensive team that ranks 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Sacrificing offensive rebounding allows the Bluejays to get back on defense — and not going for turnovers limits the fouls they commit. They have the best defensive foul rate in the nation. They play great half-court defense by ranking 10th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.2%. The focus on defense is to get their opponent off the 3-point line — they rank sixth in the nation with their opponents only taking 27.6% of their shots from behind the arc. Made 3s consist of only 25.1% of their opponent’s points which is the 336th lowest mark. Creighton has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Tennessee has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread. This Volunteers team was supposed to be different and not offensively challenged given the emergence of Dalton Knecht. But Knecht and Zakai Zeigler combined to miss 14 of their 16 shots from behind the arc. These primary scorers may be feeling the pressure to compensate for the massive funk that Santiago Vescovi is mired in right now. After scoring 12.9 Points-Per-Game and making 39% of his 3-pointers in the previous two seasons, he limped into this tournament with a 3.3 PPG scoring average in his last seven games while making only 23% of their shots including just 4 of 22 (18.1%) of his shots from behind the arc. In his two NCAA Tournament games, Vescovi has only scored eight combined points with a 33.3% shooting percentage with only two made 3s in his seven attempts. His struggles are impacting the flow of the offense — not only did Tennessee only make 33.8% of their shots against the Longhorns, but they had more turnovers than assists. Creighton will give the Vols the midrange — but Knecht only connects on 39% of his midrange jumpers. Tennessee will rely on its defense that held Texas without a 3-pointer for 24 straight minutes on Saturday. The Volunteers rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their 44.1% opponent’s effective field goal percentage ranks fourth in the nation — and they hold their opponents to 44.1% shooting inside the arc. Tennessee has played 30 of their last 44 road games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest.
FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s including all four of their games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Blue Jays (641) and the Tennessee Volunteers (642). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-29-24 |
Gonzaga +5.5 v. Purdue |
Top |
68-80 |
Loss |
-112 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
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At 7:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (639) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (640) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Gonzaga (27-7) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 89-68 victory against Kansas as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (31-4) has won eight of their last nine games after their 106-67 win against Utah State as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Purdue exorcised some of their demons last week after Fairleigh Dickinson knocked them off in the Round of 64 last year despite being a one seed. The Boilermakers had an easy time of it in a 78-50 victory against Grambling State before their 39-point win against the Aggies over the weekend. But this remains a program that has not advanced beyond the Sweet 16 since 2019 — so nerves may play a role for this team that has been National Championship or bust ambitions all season. Purdue made 55.9% of their shots against Utah State which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. They also held the Aggies to 35.9% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 15 contests. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. Additionally, they have beaten six teams this season by 30 or more points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of those 5 next contests going into tonight’s showdown. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning two games in a row by 15 or more points. Since getting outrebounded by Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament, Purdue has outrebounded their next three opponents by at least 14 boards. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after outrebounding two straight opponents by ten or more boards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after outrebounding three straight opponents by ten or more rebounds. Away from home, Purdue scores -7.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions which ranks 337th in the nation in the worst drop-off from the home offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs hold their opponents to 40.2% shooting — and the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or lower. And while Gonzaga outscores their opponents by +16.2 Points-Per-Game, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after 15 games into the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. There is a national perception that this is a down year for head coach Mark Few’s Bulldogs — but this is a better team since Few inserted Ben Gregg into the starting lineup in mid-January. The 6’10 big man makes 38.6% of his 3-pointers — his ability to play on the perimeter opens up space for superstar point guard Ryan Nembhard and Graham Ike to operate their pick-and-rolls with plenty of room. Gonzaga ranks ninth in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in their last ten games led by a nearly unstoppable offense that ranks third in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency during that span. They lead the nation in their last ten games with an effective field goal percentage of 61.5% -- leading the nation with a 44.2% clip from behind the arc and ranking fourth with a 59.6% mark from inside the arc. The Bulldogs will slow down the Boilermakers' rebounding edge — they outrebound their opponents by +7.4 Rebounds-Per-Game while ranking 52nd in the nation by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots. On the road, Gonzaga ranks 29th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they allow -2.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. The Boilermakers make 49.0% of their shots — but the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after 15 games into the season against teams who make 48% or more of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of Purdue’s 73-63 victory against the Bulldogs in the Maui Invitational on November 20th. A few things from that game. First, Few had yet to insert Gregg into the starting lineup which unleashed the offensive attack. Second, Gonzaga neutralized the Boilermakers’ rebounding edge with both teams pulling down 38 boards. Third, Purdue’s Zach Edey was not called for a foul while Ike was in foul trouble all game with four personal fouls — that is not likely to happen again. Few has had a long time to consider how to adjust to the Boilermakers’ motion offense — and the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 road games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Underdog of the Year with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (639) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-28-24 |
San Diego State v. Connecticut -10.5 |
Top |
52-82 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
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At 7:39 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (633) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (33-3) has won nine games in a row after their 75-58 victory against Northwestern as a 13.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Diego State (26-10) has won two in a row and four of their last five after their 85-57 victory against Yale as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: I don’t always love laying double-digits but am willing to do it in this instance in this rematch of last year’s National Championship Game. UConn won that game by a 76-59 score — and while they may be even better this season, the Aztecs are not quite as good as that group was last year. While San Diego State ranked eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road last season, they fall to 22nd in that metric when playing away from home this season. The Aztecs give up +4.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road versus at home this season — and that is the 308th worst discrepancy in the nation. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. The Aztecs' offense is too one-dimensional as they rely too much on big man Jaedon LeDee (who was coming off the bench last year). Huskies head coach has a three-headed monster to slow down LeDee in starters Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban along with Samson Johnson coming off the bench. San Diego State did make 52.7% of their shots against Yale on Sunday but that was the best shooting effort in their last ten contests. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after winning two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when playing for the third time in seven days. UConn’s three losses this season have either come from an ice-cold shooting performance or running into a team on fire from behind the arc. But San Diego State only makes 31.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 283rd in the nation. The Huskies have won three straight games by 16 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning three or more games in a row by 15 or more points. They rank eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after not allowing more than 58 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, UConn has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as a double-digit favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: While San Diego State has revenge on their minds, don’t underestimate the motivation the Huskies have in this game as a measuring stick regarding how this year’s group compares to last year’s squad. UConn has covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record after 15 games into the season. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-27-24 |
Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
111-118 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-28) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 115-92 victory at home against Charlotte as an 11.5-point favorite on Monday. Charlotte (17-54) has lost five games in a row after that loss two days ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers nailed 53.5% of their shots against the Hornets which was the best shooting effort in their last 18 games. Despite that performance, Cleveland is struggling to score points as they continue to play without the injured Donovan Mitchell. They have just a 5-7 record in the last 12 games with Mitchell as he nurses a fractured nose and a nagging leg injury. In their last five games, the Cavs are making 46.4% of their shots but playing at a slower pace — they are scoring only 100.4 Points-Per-Game in those five contests. They have held their last five opponents to 105.4 PPG. Cleveland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. Their victory on Monday eked Over the 206-point total in that game — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing a game on the road that finished Over the Total. They had failed to cover the point spread in four of their previous five games — and they have played 21 of their last 31 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Led by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Cleveland has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, the Cavs have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite. They have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than .250. Charlotte has not scored more than 98 points in five straight games — and they have not cracked even 93 points in their last three games. With LaMelo Ball out with an injury and Terry Rozier shipped off to Miami at the trade deadline, the Hornets offense is relying on Mikal Bridges as their go-to scorer with rookie Brandon Miller the second option. In their last five games, Charlotte is making only 42.7% of their shots resulting in only 93.8 PPG. They return home after a four-game road trip having played 31 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row on the road. The Hornets have played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total against an opponent with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points — and they have played 16 of 25 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points under head coach Steve Clifford. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-26-24 |
Fairfield v. Seattle University -6.5 |
Top |
58-75 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Redhawks (618) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (617) in the Semifinals of the College Basketball Invitational. THE SITUATION: Seattle (21-14) has won two games in a row after their 71-57 victory against Evansville as a 9-point favorite yesterday in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. Fairfield (24-12) has won two in a row and six of their last seven after their 77-74 victory against Chicago State as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle is a solid team out of the Western Athletic Conference who beat Grand Canyon while losing a second game on the road against them in overtime. They also beat Louisiana Tech and lost in double overtime to Washington. Head coach Chris Victor has his team play very good defense — they rank 64th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency off the strength of their half-court defense. They rank 18th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 46.8%. The Stags live and die by the 3-point shot — but the Redhawks rank seventh in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 29.7% shooting from behind the arc. Seattle should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. On the road, they are scoring +7.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games this season against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And while Fairfield outscores their opponents by +5.1 Points-Per-Game, Seattle has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who outscore their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. The Stags nailed 57.7% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last 22 games. But Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have only covered the point spread once in their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. And while they have won nine of their last 11 games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games. The Stags are a good offensive team — but they struggle to stop their opponents on the other end of the court. Fairfield ranks 243rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The problems are with their interior defense. They allow their opponent to make 53.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 303rd in the nation. They also allow their opponents to pull down 30.8% of their missed shots, ranking 268th in the nation. Seattle limits their opponents to 41.4% shooting — and the Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or less. Fairfield had a 10-4 record when playing at home — but they rank 272nd in the nation with their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games including all five of those circumstances this season.
FINAL TAKE: Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games played on a neutral court this season — and the Redhawks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court when favored or a pick ‘em. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games in a tournament setting. 25* CBB College Basketball Invitational Game of the Year with the playing the Seattle Redhawks (618) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (617). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-25-24 |
Nets v. Raptors UNDER 220 |
Top |
96-88 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
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At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (26-45) has lost two games in a row after their 105-93 loss at New York as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Toronto (23-48) has lost ten games in a row after their 112-109 loss at Washington as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets only made 44.7% of their shots against the Knicks on Saturday but it was still their best shooting effort in their last three games. They are scoring only 105.8 Points-Per-Game in their last five games — and they have failed to score more than 108 points in five of their last six contests. They have also failed to score more than 100 points in three of their last six games — so this team that is playing without the injured Cameron Johnson (amongst others) is quite capable of putting up a clunker. Brooklyn has held two of their last three opponents to 105 and 104 points so the effort on defense has been steady as of late. The Nets have played 27 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two or more games on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Brooklyn continues their four-game road trip scoring only 109.1 PPG which is -2.0 PPG below their season average. The Nets have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40%. Toronto is M*A*S*H unit right now as they conduct their soft tank job — they are missing so many players headlined by Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and R.J. Barrett. Gary Trent, Jr. is their go-to scorer right now. The 109 points they scored on Saturday were their most points in their last six games — they had not scored 104 in their previous five games including two clunkers where they scored only 98 and 89 points. They are only making 44.1% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 107.5 PPG. They have not shot better than 44.1% from the field in four of their last six games. The Raptors have held four of their last six opponents to 112 or fewer points. And while the Wizards’ 47.8% shooting effort on Saturday was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games, Toronto has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing three or more straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots from the field. The Raptors have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after losing five or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have played 26 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they are scoring only 110.1 PPG which is -3.0 fewer PPG than their season average — but they are holding their guests to 114.5 PPG which is -3.6 PPG lower than their season average. Toronto has played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in March. They have played 9 of their last 13 opponents with a losing record Under the Total in the second half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: The Nets will remember their 121-93 loss in Toronto against the Raptors in their most recent meeting on February 22nd. Brooklyn has played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-24-24 |
Iowa v. Utah -5 |
Top |
82-91 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (848) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (847) in the second round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah (20-14) won for the second time in their last three games after their 84-75 victory against UC-Irvine as an 8-point home favorite on Tuesday. Iowa (19-14) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 91-82 victory at home against Kansas State as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah ranks top-50 in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have beaten six teams that made the NCAA Tournament: Saint Mary’s, BYU, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State. They are particularly tough to beat at home where they enjoy an altitude edge in Provo — especially against teams from the east like Iowa. The Utes have a 15-2 record at home with an average winning margin of +16.5 Points-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to 38.7% shooting including a 31.5% mark from behind the arc that results in 67.9 PPG on their home court. They make 49.4% of their shots including 38.9% of their 3-pointers resulting in 84.4 PPG. They rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home — and they enjoy the 24th biggest jump in that metric when compared to playing away from home. Utah has covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Iowa made 48.3% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They scored 78 points in their 12-point loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Hawkeyes rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they struggle on the other end of the court. They rank 151st in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to 188th in that metric when playing in hostile environments. Interior defense is a significant problem as they allow their home hosts to make 57.9% of their shots inside the arc. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games when playing for the second time in seven days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. And in their last 13 games with the Total set in at 160 or higher, they have failed to cover the point spread 9 times.
FINAL TAKE: Utah outscores their opponents by +5.5 PPG — and Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games against teams who outscore their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. The Hawkeyes have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB 2nd Round NIT Game of the Year with the Utah Utes (848) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (847). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-22-24 |
TCU -3.5 v. Utah State |
Top |
72-88 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 56 m |
Show
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At 9:55 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (771) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (772) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: TCU (21-12) has lost four of their last six games after their 60-45 loss to Houston as an 11.5-point underdog last Thursday in the Quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. Utah State (27-6) had their six-game winning streak snapped in an 86-70 loss to San Diego State as a 5-point underdog last Friday in the Semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU shot a season-low 23.3% from the field in their loss to the Cougars who might be the best defensive team in the country. But head coach Jamie Dixon should have his team ready to play tonight. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 60 points in their last game. And while they missed 18 of their 20 shots from behind the arc in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after failing to make at least 20% of their 3-pointers — including all four of those occasions this season. TCU has been resilient under Dixon’s guidance — they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss including eight of their previous 11 losses this season. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival including six of those nine occasions this season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. Dixon has his team engage in a style of play that leads to success in single-elimination games because he emphasizes seizing extra possessions. The Horned Frogs rank 20th in the nation by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots. They also rank 22nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions. They are also an above-average 3-point shooting team that makes 35.0% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home. TCU scores +1.5 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road as opposed to being at home. And while the fact that they give up +3.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road is concerning, when looking at just their six games played on a neutral court, they allow -0.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions versus home and true road games — and those six contests include four games against NCAA Tournament teams. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games on the road after a double-digit loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning 15 or more of their last 20 contests. I worry about this Aggies team in tournament settings because they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. Under first-year head coach Danny Sprinkle, this team plays like his previous Montana State teams. They get to the free throw line — and they are an outstanding shooting team inside the arc where they rank tenth in the nation by making 57.1% of their shots. But they only make 32.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 270th in the nation. They do not create many second chances for themselves on the offensive glass as they pull down only 28.5% of their missed shots, ranking 192nd in the nation. And they force turnovers in only 16.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 223rd in the nation. On the road, they are scoring -2.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions — so the old-school Bobby Knight style of play on offense does not travel well for them. And they do not play the same quality of defense as those Knight teams from the 1970s and 80s. Utah State ranks 67th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 303rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 53.1% of their shots inside the arc. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games in the postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 appearances in the NCAA Tournament. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 60-80% of their games including five of their eight games this season under Sprinkle. TCU has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against teams winning 80% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against those teams when playing them 15 games into the season. This Horned Frogs team has high-profile wins against Houston and Baylor. Lastly, TCU ranks 296th in the nation in Ken Pomeroy’s Luck Factor rankings based on his analytics while the Aggies rank 14th in that metric — so perhaps this is a game that the Regression Gods have circled. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Game of the Year with the TCU Horned Frogs (771) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-21-24 |
Drake v. Washington State UNDER 138.5 |
Top |
61-66 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
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At 10:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (745) and the Washington State Cougars (746) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (28-6) has won five straight games as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after upsetting Indiana State in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship Game as a 3-point underdog on March 10th. Washington State (24-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 58-52 loss to Colorado as a 2-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, Nebraska.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs nailed 51.7% of their shots in their upset victory against the Sycamores 11 days ago which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. With the extended layoff between games, their shooting may be rusty tonight — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They also allowed Indiana State to make 52.5% of their shots in that game which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests — so head coach Darian DeVries will likely have his team tighten up on that end of the court. Drake struggled on the defensive end of the court in hostile environments where they had an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 103.9 — but their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their seven games on neutral courts of 97.8 this season was in line with their 98.5 defensive efficiency clip when playing on their home court. The Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. And while they have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 5 straight Unders after playing two or more Overs in a row. Furthermore, Drake has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders and 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Drake scores -2.7 fewer Points-Per-Game when playing away from home — and they do not engage the things to increase their scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They only pull down 24.1% of their missed shots, ranking 314th in the nation. They force turnovers in just 17.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 142nd. They rank 186th in getting to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs have not gotten great point guard play from sophomore Conor Enright or freshman Coby Colby who split time — it is why DeVries has resorted to deploying his son, Tucker, as a point forward. But that may not be effective against the outstanding half-court defense of the Cougars. Drake can’t get mired into being too reliant on outside shooting where they do make 35.8% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. Washington State ranks 51st in the nation by holding their opponents to a 31.6% shooting clip from behind the arc when playing away from home — and they rank 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Myles Rice is their only player who has the skills to create Despite their loss to the Buffaloes last week, they held them to just 43.1% shooting. They surrender -3.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But they also only score 69.7 PPG on the road which is -4.7 fewer PPG than their season average — and the -8.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road represents the 342nd worst drop in scoring efficiency when compared to their home numbers. Head coach Kyle Smith is going to slow this game to a crawl — the Cougars rank 315th in the nation with only 64.9 adjusted possessions per game. Washington State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread loss. And while the Bulldogs make 47.9% of their shots, the Cougars have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams who make at least 45% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: This game shapes up to be a rock fight given the lack of scoring options for both teams. Washington State has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight Unders against teams winning 80% or more of their games. The Cougars are outscoring their opponents by +7.4 Points-Per-Game — and Drake has played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (745) and the Washington State Cougars (746). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-20-24 |
Colorado v. Boise State +3.5 |
Top |
60-53 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
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At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (704) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (703) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Boise State (22-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 76-66 loss to New Mexico in a pick ‘em match last Thursday in the Quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Colorado (24-10) was on an eight-game winning streak before their 75-68 upset loss to Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite in the finals of the Pac-12 Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado is a bit challenging to figure out as they played their best basketball of the season down the stretch. The Buffaloes did deal with some injuries this season with freshman phenom Cody Williams missing 13 games being the most impactful. He is back on the court again, although he may not be 100%. I appreciate the narrative that this team underperformed high preseason expectations — but they are playing at that level now that they are close to 100% again. But problems remain. For starters, Colorado played much better at home in Boulder where they usually have an advantage over their visitors given the high altitude. With a 16-1 record at home, they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when evaluating home court edges. Of note is their 42.7% shooting percentage from behind the arc which ranks fifth best in the nation for home teams. But when away from Boulder, the Buffaloes drop to 47th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and their statistical drop represents the 292nd biggest split in the nation. They allow +5.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions, ranking 321st in the country in the biggest rise in opponent scoring. Colorado is simply not a great defensive team away from home as they rank 91st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. On offense, the Buffaloes score -4.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road, ranking 284th in the nation with that drop in offensive efficiency. They make 35.8% of their 3-pointers on the road which still ranks 59th in the country — but that -6.9% drop represents the 325th worst loss of shooting effectiveness. They also turn the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions away from home, ranking 297th in the nation. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em. And while their game with the Ducks finished Over the 140-point Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Buffaloes have not been reliably resilient under head coach Tad Boyle after setbacks either. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games — so a letdown may be looming for this team. Boise State has been stewing to get back on the court after making only 29.4% of their shots against the Lobos in what was the worst shooting effort of their season. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing for the second time in eight days. They have converted at least 10 shots from behind the arc in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after making at least 10 shots from distance in two or more games in a row. Boise State ranks 49th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home led by its defense that ranks 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 15th in the nation by holding their opponents to 30.0% 3-point shooting away from home. Overall, the Broncos rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank fifth in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 23.1% of their missed shots.
FINAL TAKE: Boise State’s Leon Rice is one of the most underrated in the business — and he has led the Broncos to now three straight NCAA Tournaments. This is Colorado’s first trip to the Big Dance in three years. The public loves the Buffaloes tonight — and the fact that Mountain West Conference teams are 23-46-2 ATS in the Big Dance since 2006 (not sure if that counts Colorado State’s victory last night) is probably playing a role in that sentiment. Besides Colorado’s tournament inexperience, their best victory this season was likely against a Washington State team that ranks 42nd in the nation at KenPom despite playing in the Pac-12. Boise State played a top-30 schedule in the nation — and they have seven victories that all rate better than that using KenPom’s metrics: Saint Mary’s (#18th); San Diego State twice (#20th); New Mexico twice (#22nd); Colorado State (#30); Nevada (#34th). With the Buffaloes now laying -3 to even -3.5s, the strong value is with the battle-tested underdog. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (704) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (703). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-19-24 |
Colorado State v. Virginia UNDER 121 |
Top |
67-42 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
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At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (671) and the Virginia Cavaliers (672) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Colorado State (24-10) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 74-61 loss to New Mexico as a 2.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Saturday. Virginia (23-10) had won two games in a row before their 73-65 upset loss in overtime to North Carolina State as a 2.5-point favorite in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers tend to get into rock fight contests — especially against teams unfamiliar with their brand of the pack line defense. Virginia ranks seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also like to slow the pace of the game to a crawl. They rank 352nd in the nation by averaging 19.7 seconds per possession — and they rank 362nd in the nation by averaging 59.9 adjusted possessions per game. Head coach Tony Bennett has had his team slow things down even more lately. In the Cav’s last three games, they have averaged 21.0, 21.5, and 22.6 seconds per possession. For some context, Air Force was the slowest team in the nation averaging 20.5 seconds per possession — so Bennett has his team going even slower than that. Virginia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while this is their third game since Thursday, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in the last seven days. On the road, the Cavaliers only make 40.5% of their shots resulting in 60.4 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -2.9 % and -3.2 PPG below their season averages. Their lack of secondary scoring threats will present a problem for them tonight. They rank 225th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring -4.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Virginia has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. Colorado State has played 8 straight Unders after winning four of their last five games. And while the Rams have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games, they have then played 4 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in four or more of their last five games. Colorado State is a good defensive team that ranked 38th in the nation and third in the Mountain West Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to 42.9% shooting away from home resulting in 69.7 PPG — and they give up -1.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. But the Rams’ 46.4% shooting percentage and 72.4 PPG scoring mark away from home are 2.4% and -4.4 PPG below their season averages. They score -4.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. They rank 241st in the nation by making only 31.8% of their shots from behind the arc away from home — and their inability to make 3s will make solving the Virginia pack line defense very difficult. They are led by point guard Isaiah Stevens — but he has a difficult challenge tonight when he will be guarded by Reece Beekman who is a glove defensively. Colorado State has played 26 of their last 39 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when on a neutral court — and Virginia has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set no higher than 129.5. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (671) and the Virginia Cavaliers (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-18-24 |
Wolves v. Jazz OVER 223.5 |
Top |
114-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
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At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (46-21) has won two straight games after their 119-100 victory at Utah as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Utah (29-38) has lost four of their last five games after that loss at home to the Timberwolves.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With Minnesota playing without Karl-Anthony Towns for the rest of the season as he recovers from a torn meniscus, the initial take would be to consider Unders for the T-Wolves given the absence of his scoring prowess. But a contrarian position when the Timberwolves after playing a team with a terrible defense is prudent in this situation. Mike Conley has stepped up in the last two games to score 23 and 25 points in their last two games to offer complementary scoring to Anthony Edwards. He has nailed five 3-pointers in both of those games. As it is, the Timberwolves have played 25 of their last 36 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. And they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row. Minnesota remains an elite defensive club even without Towns — and they held their last two opponents to just 100 points. The T-Wolves have played 30 of their last 44 road games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they are making 48.3% of their shots resulting in 114.6 Points-Per-Game. Minnesota has played 29 of their last 44 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Rudy Gobert is questionable for tonight’s contest with a left rib sprain — and if he does not play, he makes the Timberwolves interior defense much less formidable. Utah is fully embracing tanking for the rest of the season. The Jazz owes Oklahoma City their first-round draft pick if it falls outside the top ten. Not coincidentally, they have the worst defensive rating in their last 15 games. Utah has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in March including five of their seven games this month. Jordan Clarkson remains out with a groin injury and Lauri Markkanen is questionable with a quad injury after missing extended time due to that injury. In their last five games, they have allowed their opponents to make 50.7% of their shots resulting in 125.0 PPG — and they have allowed their last five visitors to score 119.6 PPG when they are playing at home. The Jazz have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a Northwest Division rival. They have also played 5 straight Overs after a double-digit loss at home.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has won the last four meetings with Utah after Saturday’s victory. The Jazz have played 27 of their last 40 road games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. They have also played 35 of their last 55 games when playing with double-revenge — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with triple-revenge. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (565) and the Utah Jazz (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-17-24 |
Wisconsin v. Illinois -2.5 |
Top |
87-93 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
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At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (650) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (649) in the Championship Game of the Big Ten Tournament. THE SITUATION: Illinois (25-8) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 98-87 victory against Nebraska as a 4.5-point favorite in their semifinal showdown yesterday. Wisconsin (76-75) has won three games in a row after their 76-75 upset victory in overtime against Purdue as a 5.5-point underdog in their semifinal game yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING ILLINI MINUS THE POINTS: Illinois was locked in with their 3-point shooting yesterday as they nailed 13 of their 35 shots en route to their victory. They should build off that momentum this afternoon. The Fighting Illini have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after making at least 13 shots from behind the arc in their last game. They lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 95 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three or more games in a row. And they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 40 games after a win by double-digits. The Illini did allow the Cornhuskers to make 46% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 85 or more points in their last contest. The Fighting Illini rank fifth in the nation's Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin may be due for a physical and emotional after outlasting the Boilermakers in overtime yesterday. This is a tough matchup for the Badgers against this Illinois team that plays fast and scores tons of points. The Fighting Illini score 83.7 Points-Per-Game while launching 24 shots from behind the arc per game. Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who score 77 or more PPG. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who take at least 21 shots from 3-point land per game. The Badgers struggle with their perimeter defense — they rank 347th in the nation by allowing their opponents to convert on a whopping 37.2% of their 3-point shots. Wisconsin’s opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.0% ranks 262nd in the nation. Inexplicably, Purdue only attempted 16 shots from behind the arc yesterday with their head coach Matt Painter seemingly lost control of the script and still freaked out regarding how to have his team play in one-and-down contests after they got upset as a number one seed last year in the Big Dance. Illinois head coach Brad Underwood will not make that mistake today. The Badgers score -5.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road — and they rank 209th in the nation in the drop off in their Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home.
FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Illinois has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in that +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Illinois Fighting Illini (650) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (649). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-16-24 |
UTEP v. Western Kentucky UNDER 145 |
Top |
71-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas-El Paso Miners (631) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (632) in the Championship Game of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: UTEP (18-15) has won five straight games after their 65-63 upset win against Sam Houston State as a 5-point underdog yesterday afternoon. Western Kentucky (21-11) has won two games in a row after their 85-54 victory against Middle Tennessee as a 6-point favorite in their semifinal contest yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: UTEP only made 43.7% of their shots yesterday — but they held the Bearkats to just 41.2% shooting while holding them to just 53 points. The Miners have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a Conference USA opponent — and they have played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less this season. They have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And in their last 9 games played with one day or less of rest, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. UTEP only makes 41.3% of their shots on the road resulting in just 65.5 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -3.7% and -7.2 PPG below their season averages. They rank 324th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road — and they are scoring -4.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road which is the 262nd worst drop in the country. But the Miners also rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they are giving up -1.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. A key dynamic for this contest is that UTEP leads the nation by forcing turnovers in 26.5% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road. The Hilltoppers play at the fastest pace in the nation — but the pressure the Miners present will slow down their attack. Western Kentucky ranks 262nd in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.2% of their possessions. UTEP has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last games Under the Total as an underdog of six points or less on a neutral court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 tournament games Under the Total. Western Kentucky wants to build off their strong defensive effort yesterday after limiting the Blue Raiders to just 31.0% shooting in their 31-point victory. The Hilltoppers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by double-digits. And while they made 11 of their 22 shots from behind the arc yesterday, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. Western Kentucky has scored 85 or more points in their two tournament games this week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have scored at least 79 points in five straight games — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 75 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Hilltoppers’ fast pace makes Overs tempting when considering them but they only make 45.4% of their shots on the road resulting in 77.7 PPG — and those numbers are -1.4% and -3.0 PPG below their season averages. They are scoring -3.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. They are also giving up -4.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Western Kentucky has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a favorite of up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season contests after Western Kentucky won on their home court by a 90-80 score on February 15th. The Miners have played 5 of their 6 opportunities to avenge an earlier loss this season Under the Total. They have also played 36 of their last 55 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas-El Paso Miners (631) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-24 |
Alabama A&M v. Texas Southern UNDER 136 |
Top |
65-72 |
Loss |
-112 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Alabama A&M Bulldogs (306503) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306504) in the Semifinals of the Southwest Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Alabama A&M (12-21) has won three of their last four games after their 75-63 upset victory against Alcorn State as a 3-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of this tournament on Wednesday. Texas Southern (15-15) has won six of their last seven contests after their 72-62 victory as a 3-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Alabama A&M has pulled off two straight upsets relying on their defense. After holding Southern University to 37.2% shooting last Saturday in their 66-56 victory, they limited Alcorn State to just a 37.0% field goal percentage in their upset victory on Wednesday. The Bulldogs rank fourth in the SWAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.7%. Alabama A&M has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total after winning two of their last three contest. But the Bulldogs rank only 356th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Granted, we are talking about a SWAC team in what is not one of the strongest conferences in the nation. But they rank just 10th in the SWAC on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they fall to 11th in that metric when playing on the road. They are making only 40.6% of their shots on the road including just 25.8% of their 3-pointers resulting in only 66.4 Points-Per-Game. They are scoring -7.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But back to their defense which has held their last five opponents to 64.4 PPG from 39.7% shooting from the field — and those marks are -11.0 PPG and -2.7% below their season averages. They lead the SWAC by limiting their opponents to making only 41.7% of their shots inside the arc. SWAC opponents are making only 38.5% of their shots against them overall — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in conference play. Furthermore, Alabama A&M has played 42 of their last 69 games Under the Total as an underdog. Texas Southern comes off their best defensive game of the season after limiting Jackson State to a 32.3% shooting percentage yesterday. While I often think that is a mark screaming out for the Regression Gods, in this instance I suspect it is reflective of the tough defense this team has embraced under head coach Johnny Jones as they enter the postseason. That game finished Under the 140.5-point total — and the Tigers have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their previous game. Texas Southern is second in the SWAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they lead the conference in that metric when playing on the road. They also rank a very respectable 60th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.2%. The Tigers have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after winning two of their last three. On the road, Texas Southern holds their opponents to -7.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. But unfortunately for them, they also score -4.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They only make 39.3% of their shots including 29.1% of their 3-pointers away from home resulting in just 65.8 PPG — and those marks are -2.1% and -4.4 PPG below their season averages. Their last five-game scoring numbers are up — but that comes from three games on their home court where they scored at least 79 points in each game while generating 84.0 PPG. But in their last three games away from home, they have not scored more than 77 points. The Tigers have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 23 of their last 34 road games Under the Total in conference play.
FINAL TAKE: Texas Southern won the only previous meeting between these teams this season in an 85-69 victory at home. The Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* CBB Southwest Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Alabama A&M Bulldogs (306503) and the Texas Southern Tigers (306504). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-24 |
Wichita State v. UAB -4.5 |
Top |
60-72 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (830) minus the points versus the Wichita State Shockers (829) in the Quarterfinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UAB (20-11) has won two straight games after their 74-70 victory against SMU as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Wichita State (15-18) won for the fourth time in their last five games with their 71-65 upset victory against Memphis as an 8.5-point underdog in the second round of this tournament yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: UAB enters this tournament rested and ready — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing for just the second time in eight days. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory against an American Athletic Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. The Blazers are one of the best offensive-rebounding teams in the country — they rank 22nd in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots. They also rank 22nd in the nation in getting to the free throw line — and they led the American Athletic Conference by making 75.7% of their shots on the charity stripe. These team attributes travel — UAB scores +4.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Overall, they rank 28th in the nation in their improvement when Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. Wichita State held the Tigers to just 36.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Shockers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a win against a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning three of their last four games so an emotional letdown this afternoon appears likely. Wichita State ranks only 205th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they score -3.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Overall, they rank 321st in the nation in the drop in their Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Shockers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court when an underdog getting up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: Wichita State won the only meeting between these two teams back on February 28th by a 74-66 score as a 7.5-point underdog. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games playing with revenge including all four of those opportunities this season. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the UAB Blazers (830) minus the points versus Wichita State Shockers (829). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-14-24 |
New Mexico State v. Western Kentucky -6.5 |
Top |
69-89 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (798) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (797) in the Quarterfinals of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (19-11) has lost four games in a row after their 82-79 loss at Liberty as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. New Mexico State (13-18) has won two games in a row after their 77-70 win against Florida International as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky allowed the Flames to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. They had not allowed an opponent to make 50% or more of their shots until their last two contests. The Hilltoppers have given up 82 or more points in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 road games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Western Kentucky is a pretty good defensive team — they rank fourth in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing -3.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Their raw numbers are propped up by their uber-fast pace. The Hilltoppers rank fourth in the nation by averaging only 14.6 seconds per possession — and their 75.1 adjusted possessions per game is the top number in the nation. They combine this fast pace with great shooting — they lead Conference USA with an effective field goal percentage of 54.6%. Western Kentucky has scored 79 or more points in three straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing four or five of their last six games. This is just their second game since March 2nd — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing for just the second time in the last eight days. New Mexico State nailed made 44.9% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. They rank 297th in the nation and last in the Western Athletic Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Aggies scored 49 points in the first half of that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 45 or more points in the first half of their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning two of their last three games. Now they go back on the road where they have just one victory in 16 games — and they are getting outscored by -16.2 Points-Per-Game in those contests. New Mexico State only makes 40.5% of their shots including 25.5% of their 3-pointers on the road resulting in just 63.4 PPG. But the decline in defense when playing away from home is even more dramatic. They allow their opponents to make 37.8% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home resulting in 79.6 PPG. They are giving up +11.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. They rank 356th in the nation in the drop they experience in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against WAC rivals. Another intangible dragging this team down is that they rank 349th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and the Hilltoppers make 73.4% of their free throws. New Mexico State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games after Western Kentucky won the last meeting by a 72-58 score as a 9.5-point favorite on February 17th. But the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games in conference tournament action. 25* CBB Conference USA Game of the Year is with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (798) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (797). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-14-24 |
Niagara +2 v. Marist |
Top |
59-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Niagara Purple Eagles (791) plus the point(s) versus the Marist Red Foxes (792) in the Quarterfinals of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. THE SITUATION: Niagara (16-15) has won two of their last three games after their 67-65 victory against Siena as a 10.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Marist (17-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 63-62 win against Niagara as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PURPLE EAGLES PLUS THE POINT(S): Niagara should build off the momentum of their victory in the first round of this tournament on Tuesday — they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by three points or less in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two of their last three games. And in their last 12 road games when playing with one day or less of rest, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of those contests. The Purple Eagles are a good team away from home where they allow -10.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They also score +2.7 more points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. Overall, they rank third in the nation in the bump they receive in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from their home court. They lead the MAAC in getting to the free throw line — and the Red Foxes rank ninth defensively in that category in conference play. Niagara has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. Marist can struggle to score baskets — they rank 321st in the nation and ninth in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They held the Purple Eagles to just a 42.9% shooting percentage on Saturday which was the best defensive effort in their last three games — but the Red Foxes have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They have covered the point spread only once in their last six games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Marist ranks 229th in the nation in the drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency margin when playing away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 120s. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in March.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular season games with the Purple Eagles winning by five points in January. Niagara has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Niagara Purple Eagles (791) plus the point(s) versus the Marist Red Foxes (792). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-13-24 |
Lehigh +8.5 v. Colgate |
Top |
55-74 |
Loss |
-114 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306541) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306542) in the Championship Game of the Patriot League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Lehigh (14-17) has won two games in a row — and seven of their last nine contests — after their 84-79 win in overtime at Boston University as a 2-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament on Sunday. Colgate (24-9) is on a four-game winning streak after their 68-65 victory against Bucknell as a 12-point favorite in their semifinal contest on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAIN HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Lehigh was terrible in the first half on the road against the Terriers as they fell behind by 21 points before going into the locker room trailing by 18 points. They only made 40.0% of their shots in that game which was terrible worst shooting effort in their last three games. But they nailed 12 shots from behind the arc, made 24 of their 30 shots at the charity stripe, and forced 16 turnovers in 20.8% of Boston University’s possessions to rally back and steal the game. With that lesson in hand, the Mountain Hawks should play much better tonight and not dig themselves such a hole. They have held their last five opponents to 41.7% shooting resulting in just 66.0 Points-Per-Game. Their defense travels where they are quite comfortable — they are holding their home hosts to -3.9 points per 100 adjusted possessions. Even better, they score +8.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in hostile environments. Overall, Lehigh ranks fourth in the nation in their net improvement in Adjusted Efficiency Margin when playing in true road games. Not surprisingly, the Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Colgate held Bucknell to just 38.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But despite their four-game winning streak, the Raiders have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after two or more wins in a row where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread 7 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Colgate is vulnerable even as a Patriot League giant because they do not create additional scoring possessions. They only pull down 23.6% of their missed shots in conference play and they only force turnovers in 16.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and both those marks rank sixth in the Patriot League. They thrive by usually making the shots they take — but they were cold from behind the arc on Sunday as they made only 5 of their 25 (20%) shots from 3-point range. The Raiders have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their previous 4 games after failing to make more than 20% of their 3-pointers in their last game. They earned the right to host this game after winning the regular season crown — but they rank 246th in the nation in the drop Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home as opposed to their efficiency numbers when playing on the road. Colgate has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Colgate swept both meetings with the Mountain Hawks in the regular season — but both their victories were by just three points including a 60-57 escape at home as an 11-point favorite on January 22nd. The Raiders then won by a 63-60 score on March 2nd — but Lehigh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Patriot League Tournament Game of the Year with the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306541) plus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (306542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-24 |
Wisc-Milwaukee v. Oakland -3.5 |
Top |
76-83 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oakland Grizzlies (624) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (623) in the Championship Game of the Horizon League Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oakland (22-11) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last ten contests after their 74-71 victory against Cleveland State as a 3.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament last night. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (20-14) has won six straight games after their 82-75 upset victory against Northern Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog in their semifinal contest last night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Oakland should have covered the point spread last night — but rather than letting a flung half-court shot by the Vikings go uncontested the Grizzlies player fouled the Cleveland State shooter giving them three shots at the charity stripe. Even after that, Oakland covers the -3.5 if they hit their final free throw with only a second or two left in the game — but, nope. The Grizzlies still won that game despite only making 38.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Oakland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a victory by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a win against a Horizon League rival by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Oakland has a 12-8 mark when playing away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games after winning three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road after a straight-up win. They rank 11th in the nation with their improvement in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court when favored by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in tournament action. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 150s. Wisconsin-Milwaukee held the Norse to host 39.1% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. But the Panthers still rank 312th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after winning two or more games in a row against conference rivals. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Panthers score -5.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted 100 possessions when playing on the road — and they rank 204th in the nation with their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Grizzlies make 45.0% of their shots — and Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against teams who make at least 45.0% of their shots. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Oakland swept the two regular season games between these two teams after their 90-87 win on the road on January 27th — and the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Horizon League Tournament Game of the Year with the Oakland Grizzlies (624) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (623). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-24 |
San Francisco v. Gonzaga UNDER 150.5 |
Top |
77-89 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
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At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (873) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (874) in the Semifinals of the West Coast Conference. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (23-9) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 72-51 victory against Portland as a 16-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament on Saturday. Gonzaga (24-6) has won eight straight games after their 70-57 upset victory at Saint Mary’s as a 3.5-point underdog on March 2nd. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dons made 52.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. They stepped up their play on defense by holding the Pilots to just 32.7% shooting — and they have played 21 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55% of their shots in their last contest. Additionally, San Francisco has played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points against a West Coast Conference rival. They have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. And they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They are making 45.7% of their shots on the road resulting in 71.5 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -3.3% and -8.4 PPG below their season averages. They are scoring -4.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in those road games. But on the other end of the court, they are holding their opponents to just 42.2% shooting with a 32.2% clip from behind the arc resulting in 66.9 PPG. The Dons rank 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to the eighth-best defense in the nation in that metric when playing away from home. They have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.2% on the road ranking 21st in the nation — and they are giving up -8.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road. San Francisco has played 23 of their last 33 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Gonzaga made 51.7% of their shots against the Gaels which was the worst shooting effort in their alt three games — but they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two or more games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have won six straight games by 13 or more points — and they have then played 6 straight road games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row by 10 or more points. And in their last 13 games on the road after winning four or more games in a row, they have then played 11 of these games Under the Total. The Bulldogs are scoring 80.3 PPG away from home with a 49.6% field goal percentage — but those numbers are still -5.3 PPG and -2.3% below their season averages. They hold their opponents to 42.7% shooting and 69.9 PPG on the road — and they are giving up -3.9 fewer points per 100 possessions on the road. They rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. Interestingly, head coach Mark Few has his team playing at a slower pace lately — they are averaging 1.3 fewer possessions per game in their last ten games. The Dons are outscoring their opponents by +12.3 PPG — and Gonzaga has played 7 straight Unders against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +12.0 more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. Gonzaga has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (873) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-09-24 |
Arizona v. USC OVER 161.5 |
Top |
65-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (727) and the USC Trojans (728). THE SITUATION: Arizona (88-65) has won four games in a row as well as 10 of their last 11 contests after their 88-65 victory as a 9.5-point favorite as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday. USC (13-17) has won two games in a row after their 81-73 victory as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made 51.9% of their shots against the Bruins which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They are making 51.8% of their shots in their last five contests. Arizona ranks sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring 90.3 Points-Per-Game. They have scored 85 or more points in four straight games as well as nine of their last 11 contests. But they have also allowed 75 or more points in five of their last eight contests as well. They play at a very fast pace — they average only 15.1 seconds per possession which is the eighth quickest mark in the nation. The Wildcats have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road after a straight-up win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a win on the road where they scored 85 or more points. Furthermore, they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while this is just their second game since February 28th, they have then played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with just one day of rest. Arizona stays on the road where they rank third in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring +4.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. But they are also giving up 80.6 PPG on the road — and the +8.6 points per 100 adjusted possessions they are giving up away from home represents the 342nd biggest jump in the nation. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 28 road games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. USC has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Trojans have scored 163 combined points in their last two games — and they are making 48.6% of their shots in their last five contests resulting in 77.8 PPG. But they have allowed three of their last five opponents to make at least 50% of their shots after the Sun Devils enjoyed a 50% shooting clip against them on Thursday. USC has played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a victory against a Pac-12 rival. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They stay at home where they are scoring +3.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. But the Trojans rank 10th in the Pac-12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total on their home court. USC has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a dog or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona won the first meeting on January 17th by an 82-67 score as a 20.5-point favorite — and the Trojans have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when avenging a same-season loss on the road. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (727) and the USC Trojans (728). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-09-24 |
Rhode Island v. Fordham OVER 146.5 |
Top |
58-50 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Rhode Island Rams (613) and the Fordham Rams (614). THE SITUATION: Rhode Island (11-19) has lost seven games in a row after their 69-57 loss at home to George Mason as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday. Fordham (12-18) has lost two games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests after a 66-64 loss at Massachusetts as a 9.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Rhode Island made only 29.4% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting performance of their season. That game finished well Under the 142.5-point total — but these Rams have played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing five or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Rhode Island has let their last five opponents make 50.5% of their shots resulting in 84.0 Points-Per-Game. They go back on the road where they rank 337th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing their opponents to make 48.8% of their shots and 37.3% of their 3-pointers when on the road resulting in 81.9 PPG. They are surrendering +5.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road — but they are also scoring +1.2 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when away from home as well. They rank 35th in the nation by making 37.6% of their 3-pointers when away from home — and Fordham allows their guests to make 40.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home, ranking 359th in the nation. Rhode Island has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Rhode Island should also get plenty of points from the charity stripe as they lead the Atlantic 10 in free throw rate — and Fordham is last in the conference in putting their opponent on the line. Fordham has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Their loss against the Minutemen on Wednesday finished Under the 143-point Total — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Fordham ranks 10th in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they return home where they rank 222nd in the nation in that metric. They allow their opponents to guests to make 46.0% of their shots resulting in 73.7 PPG — and they are giving up +9.5 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on their home court. They are also scoring +3.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home. The hosting Rams have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when favored. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs at home when playing 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Fordham won the first meeting between these two teams by a 71-68 score as a 2.5-point underdog on January 24th — and Rhode Island has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Rhode Island Rams (613) and the Fordham Rams (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-08-24 |
Western Illinois +6 v. Arkansas-Little Rock |
Top |
57-82 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Western Illinois Leathernecks (885) plus the points versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (886) in the Semifinals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Illinois (21-11) won for the fourth straight time with their 61-59 triumph against Tennessee State as a 2.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of this event yesterday. Arkansas-Little Rock (20-11) has won nine straight games after their 81-43 victory against Tennessee Tech as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana.
REASONS TO THE LEATHERNECKS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Illinois survived yesterday’s game despite making only 37.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But the Leathernecks controlled the boards with a 52-36 edge in rebounds — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after out-rebounding their previous opponent by +15 or more boards. This team does two things well that usually translate to neutral courts. First, Western Illinois ranks 13th in the nation by pulling down 37.1% of their missed shots — and they lead the Ohio Valley Conference by rebounding 39.2% of their misses. They grabbed 19 second chances yesterday representing 45.2% of their missed shots. They should control the offensive glass tonight as well — the Trojans rank 227th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.0% of their missed shots. Second, the Leathernecks play great half-court defense. They rank 14th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1%. They also rank 20th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line — so they make it very tough on their opponents to score points. Western Illinois has not allowed more than 65 points in their last two games — and they have ten covered the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have covered the points spread in 15 of their last 19 games when playing with one day or less of rest. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. Additionally, they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three contests. They have an 11-6 record away from home where they are scoring +2.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions while holding their opponents to -4.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They rank 25th in the nation in their improved play away from home in terms of Adjusted Net Efficiency. They are holding teams to just 40.6% shooting including a 28.9% clip from behind the arc resulting in 66.8 Points-Per-Game. Western Illinois ranks eighth in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6% when playing on the road. They hold these teams to just 46.8% shooting inside the arc, ranking 21st in the nation — and they allow these opponents to make only 28.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking ninth in the nation. The Leathernecks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against Ohio Valley Conference opponents. Little Rock held Tennessee Tech to just 30% shooting last week which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Trojans have scored at least 80 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after winning five or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after winning six or more games in a row. On the road, they have a 6-7 record while making 46.0% of their shots. They only hit 30.0% of the 3-pointers away from home, ranking 297th in the nation. They score -2.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions away from home. But the bigger concern is on the other end of the court where they allow +7.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when away from home. They rank 335th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Little Rock won the first meeting between these two teams in a 63-60 upset win as a 1.5-point road underdog back on February 28th — but the Leathernecks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Underdog of the Year with the Western Illinois Leathernecks (885) plus the points versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (886). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-24 |
Utah v. Oregon State +7.5 |
Top |
85-92 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
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At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (774) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (773). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (12-17) has lost eight of their last nine games after their 78-71 loss at Oregon as a 13.5-point underdog last Thursday. Utah (18-11) has won three of their last four games after their 88-59 victory against California as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon State allowed the Ducks to make 49.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. Now after playin' their last three games on the road, they return home where they have an 11-5 record with an average winning margin of +5.6 net Points-Per-Game. They are scoring +1.2 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home — and they are giving up -8.8 points per 100 adjusted possessions on their home court. Oregon State ranks eighth in the nation in the bump up in Adjusted Net Efficiency when they are playing on their home court. The Beavers hold their opponents to just 41.1% shooting and a 30.9% mark from behind the arc resulting in 67.6 Points-Per-Game. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Utah nailed 50.8% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting mark in their last 16 contests. They also held the Golden Bears to 34.4% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. After playing one of their best games of the season, the Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win against a Pac-12 rival in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread only once in their last four games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have a 4-9 record with an average losing margin of -7.9 PPG. Utah is only making 43.5% of their shots on the road including just 32.1% of their 3-pointers resulting in 71.3 PPG. They are scoring -7.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing in hostile environments. They are allowing their home hosts to make 47.8% of their shots including 38.0% of their 3-pointers resulting in 79.2 PPG. The Utes are giving up +11.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions in true road games. Utah ranks 171st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments — and their opponent's effective field goal percentage of 55.2% ranks 319th in the nation. Furthermore, they rank 361st in the nation in the drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games in conference play. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as a favorite or a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Utah won the first meeting between these two teams at home at Salt Lake City by a 74-47 score as a 15-point favorite. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 10 of their 13 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 game games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Pac-12 Underdog of the Year with Oregon State Beavers (774) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (773). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-24 |
Utah State v. San Jose State OVER 144.5 |
Top |
90-70 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (713) and the San Jose State Spartans (714). THE SITUATION: Utah State (24-5) has won three games in a row and five of their last six after their 72-60 victory against Air Force as a 17.5-point favorite on Friday. San Jose State (9-21) has lost five games in a row after their 68-50 loss at UNLV as a 13.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Aggies rank 11th in the nation by making 57.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they lead the Mountain West Conference with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. Utah State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a win in conference play — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after a win at home by 10 or more points. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing 60 or more points in their last game. They go back on the road where they are scoring 76.4 Points-Per-Game while giving up 72.5 PPG. They rank second in the MWC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency but sit just eighth in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They are scoring +2.6 points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road — and they are giving up +8.5 points per 100 adjusted possessions when on the road in hostile environments. The Aggies have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 6 straight Overs on the road as the favorite or as a pick ‘em. San Jose State has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a loss where they did not score more than 60 points — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 55 points in their last game. And while their loss to the Runnin’ Rebels finished Under the 138.5-point total, they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Spartans return home where they are nailing 47.8% of their shots resulting in 76.1 PPG — and those marks represent a +6.2 PPG and a +3.1% bump over their season averages. But they are also allowing their guests to make 47.4% of their shots including 39.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 76.9 PPG which is +2.2 PPG higher than their season defensive average. San Jose State scores +8.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions when at home which ranks 29th in the nation in the biggest jump. They also allow +4.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at home, ranking 307th worst in the country. The Spartans have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: San Jose State is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation as they rank 281st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 331st in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.8% which does not bode well against a great shooting team like the Aggies. Utah State made 60% of their shots including a 6 of 12 mark from behind the arc en route to their 82-61 victory against the Spartans at home on January 30th — and San Jose State has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Utah State Aggies (713) and the San Jose State Spartans (714). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-05-24 |
Jacksonville v. Eastern Kentucky -8.5 |
Top |
67-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (306510) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306509) in the Quarterfinals of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Eastern Kentucky (17-13) has lost two games in a row after their 81-67 loss at Lipscomb as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday. Jacksonville (15-16) snapped their two-game losing streak before their 92-86 upset win at Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point underdog in the first round of this tournament last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLONELS MINUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins broke out by making 50.0% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort in their last 22 games. They nailed 13 of their 21 shots 61.9% from behind the arc in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers in their last game. That performance was well out of character for this Jacksonville team that ranks last in the Atlantic Sun in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and their 47.3% effective field goal percentage. They rank 281st in the nation by making only 30.3% of their shots from behind the arc. I hate the situation the Dolphins are now in having to travel from Georgia to Kentucky without a day of rest as this tournament continues. As it is, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when playing for the second time in three days or less. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. The Dolphins are just 3-13 away from home — and they rank 330th in the nation and last in the Atlantic Sun in Adjusted Net Efficiency in hostile environments. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread on the road with the Total set in the 140s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. They face an angry Eastern Kentucky team that only made 39.7% of their shots last Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. The Colonels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road -- and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss on the road. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in four or more games in a row. Eastern Kentucky returns where they have a 10-3 record with an average winning margin of 14.3 Points-Per-Game. They rank 203rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency on their home court (not bad for a low mid-major) while leading the Atlantic Sun in that metric. They are scoring 87.1 PPG at home from 48.7% shooting from the field and a 38.4% clip from behind the arc, ranking 42nd in the nation. The Dolphins play pretty good defense — but they rank 313th in the nation by allowing their home hosts to make 38.1% of their 3-pointers. The Colonels have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 140s — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Eastern Kentucky ranks third in the conference in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in March. They also lead the Atlantic Sun with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.7%.
FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville wants to avenge a 75-59 loss at Eastern Kentucky as an 11-point underdog on January 25th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities for revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (306510) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306509). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-04-24 |
Northern Colorado v. Northern Arizona +4 |
Top |
82-74 |
Loss |
-107 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (884) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). THE SITUATION: Northern Arizona (14-17) has lost two of their last three games after their 85-58 loss at Weber State as a 12.5-point underdog on Saturday. Northern Colorado (18-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with an 81-79 upset victory against Idaho State as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LUMBERJACKS PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Arizona only made 31.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 15 games. They also allowed the Wildcats to make 50.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests. The Lumberjacks should bounce back tonight — they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss to a Big Sky Conference rival including five of those last seven circumstances this season. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games. They return home where they have a 7-4 record this season while holding their opponents to just 43.9% shooting including a 30.2% mark from behind the arc. Northern Arizona plays solid half-court defense when playing at home — they rank fourth in the Big Sky with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.9% on their home court and they rank in the top-four in both 3-point defense and 2-point defense at home in conference play. The Lumberjacks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog or a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Head coach Shane Burcar led his team to a big March run last year — they reached the Big Sky Conference Tournament Championship Game despite a 5-13 record in conference play in the regular season. Under Burcar, Northern Arizona has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in March. They have also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 47 games as an underdog. They now host a Northern Colorado team that is a vulnerable road favorite. The Bears rank 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments — and they rank eighth in the Big Sky in that category when on the road. They have a 7-9 record on the road while getting outscored by -1.2 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to score 81.9 PPG while making 47.2% of their shots including 37.0% of their 3-pointers, ranking 287th in the nation when assessing play on the road. They rank 304th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. They made 60.0% of their shots on Saturday against the Bengals which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. They have scored 81 points in two straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Lumberjacks are vulnerable against good offensive rebounding teams — but that is not the Bears who rank 307th in the nation in that category. And while Northern Arizona only makes 43.6% of their shots, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who are not making more than 45% of their shots.
FINAL TAKE: Northern Arizona looks to avenge a 92-87 loss at Northern Colorado on December 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points. The Lumberjacks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Underdog of the Year with the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (884) versus the Northern Colorado Bears (883). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-24 |
North Carolina-Asheville v. Radford OVER 147.5 |
Top |
71-62 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306581) and the Radford Highlanders (306582). THE SITUATION: UNC-Asheville (19-11) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 78-77 upset loss at home against Gardner-Webb as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday. Radford (15-15) had their two-game winning streak end in a 58-57 upset loss at Charleston Southern as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs made 50% of their shots in their loss last week which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last three games. UNC-Asheville has played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 5 straight Overs after an upset loss to a Big South rival. And while that game with Gardner-Webb finished Over the 1553.5-point total, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last contest. The Bulldogs lead the Big South with an effective field goal percentage of 55.9% — and they rank 22nd in the nation by making 37.5% of their 3-pointers. They also rank 11th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 75.9 Points-Per-Game -- fueled by the sixth-best free throw rate when playing in hostile environments. They also rank 47th in the nation by making 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. But UNC-Asheville ranks 208th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they plummet to 307th in that nation in that metric when playing on the road in hostile environments. The adjusted +8.3 points per 100 possessions they allow in hostile environments represents the 339th worst spike in the country. They are giving up 78.8 PPG in those games. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog or a pick ‘em. The Highlanders make 46.5% of their shots — and UNC-Asheville has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams making 45% or more of their shots. Radford made only 41.8% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven contests. They still rank third in the Big South in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are still making 49.3% of their shots in their last five games. More surprisingly, they held Charleston Southern to 35.9% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eight contests. The Highlanders rank 312th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking last in the Big South in that category. Radford has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games — and they have played 8 straight Overs after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They return home where they are scoring 76.2 PPG on 49.5% shooting — and those marks are +3.4 PPG and +3.0% above their season average. The Highlanders rank 14th in the nation by making 41.2% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on their home court. But they also rank 323rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — and the +5.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions they allow represents the 318th biggest jump when assessing home court play. Radford has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite of three points or less or as a pick ‘em. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Bulldogs average eight made 3s per game, the Highlanders have played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who make eight or more 3s per game.
FINAL TAKE: Radford has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 6 straight Overs when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. UNC-Asheville has played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total on the road with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Big South Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306581) and the Radford Highlanders (306582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-01-24 |
Old Dominion v. Georgia Southern OVER 152.5 |
Top |
75-92 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (861) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (862). THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (7-23) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 89-64 loss at Appalachian State as a 14.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Georgia Southern (7-23) has won two of their last three games after their 87-73 victory as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Old Dominion plays at a fast pace — they rank 57th in the nation in Adjusted Possessions per Game while ranking 46th in their Average Possession Length. They have been playing even quicker in conference play as they lead the Sun Belt with 72.5 Adjusted Possessions per Game while averaging 16.2 Seconds per Possession. The Monarchs have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em. Old Dominion ranks 214th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to ranking 312th in the nation in that metric when playing in hostile environments. Furthermore, they rank 233rd in the nation in their drop in Adjusted Net Defensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. They are allowing their home hosts to make 46.3% of their shots resulting in 82.5 Points-Per-Game — and they are scoring 73.2 PPG in those road games. The Monarchs’ Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rises by 5.5 points when they are playing in hostile environments — and that bump ranks as the 38th biggest jump in the nation. Old Dominion has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 20-40% of their games. Georgia Southern played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding the Thundering Herd to 73 points. The Eagles rank 342nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But by making 56.9% of their shots in that game on Wednesday, they made at least 50.9% of their shots for the third time in their last four games. Georgia Southern has scored at least 80 points in three of their last four games. They are making 48.2% of their shots in their last five contests resulting in 80.0 PPG. They have played 35 of their last 54 home games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. They have played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after a win against a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games over the Total after a victory by ten or more points. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. They stay at home where they are making 47.1% of their shots including 41.0% of their 3-pointers resulting in 76.5 PPG. They are scoring +11.2 more points per 100 possessions when playing at home — and that rise in efficiency is the sixth largest for home courts in the nation. Georgia Southern has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion only makes 41.9% of their shots but they average 62 shot attempts per game. The Eagles have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who average at least 62 shots per game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are not making more than 42% of their shots. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Old Dominion Monarchs (861) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (862). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-29-24 |
Towson v. North Carolina A&T UNDER 132.5 |
Top |
84-58 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
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At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Towson Tigers (779) and the North Carolina A&T Aggies (780). THE SITUATION: Towson (17-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 72-56 loss to the College of Charleston as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. North Carolina A&T (7-22) has lost seven straight games after their 83-67 loss at Monmouth as an 11-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers allowed the Cougars to nail 54.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games — and the 72 points they gave up was the most they had allowed in five straight contests. Towson still leads the Colonial Athletic Association in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have still held their last five opponents to just 40.2% shooting from the field resulting in only 61.4 Points-Per-Game. The Tigers should tighten things up on defense tonight — they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by double-digits and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss by 15 or more points. But Towson can struggle to score points. They rank 227th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are just eighth in the conference in that category. They go back on the road where they are only making 38.4% of their shots resulting in just 62.3 PPG. The Tigers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when favored by double-digits. UNC A&T only made 28.3% of their shots on Saturday — but that was only their second-lowest field goal percentage in their last five games in a span where they have not shot better than 38.2% from the field. In their last five games, the Aggies are making only 32.4% of their shots resulting in just 57.6 PPG. They are last in the Colonial Athletic Association and 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The 67 points they scored was their highest total in their last nine contests. UNC A&T has then played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They have also played 10 of their last 12 games at home Under the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. They return home where they are holding their opponents to 45.1% shooting resulting in 68.5 PPG — and those marks are -3.2% and -9.7 PPG lower than their season averages. The Aggies have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams can shoot the basketball. Towson ranks 314th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 46.7% and UNC A&T ranks 355th with an eFG of 44.2%. The Tigers have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s — and the Aggies have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Towson Tigers (779) and the North Carolina A&T Aggies (780). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-28-24 |
Oklahoma v. Iowa State -9 |
Top |
45-58 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (738) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (737). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (21-6) has won five of their last six games after their 71-64 victory against West Virginia as an 18-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma (84-82) snapped a two-game losing streak in an 84-82 upset win in overtime at Oklahoma State as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State was flat against the Mountaineers over the weekend as they allowed them to make 47.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Despite that performance, the Cyclones still rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 home games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also covered the points spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win against a Big 12 rival. And while this is just their second game since last Monday, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when play for the second time in eight or more days. The Cyclones stay at home where they have a 16-0 record with an average winning margin of +25.8 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the nation in Net Efficiency Margin when looking only at home court advantages. They are making 49.9% of their shots at home including 39.1% of their 3-pointers which is the 32nd-best mark in the nation — resulting in 82.9 PPG. On the other end of the court, they are holding their guests to just 38.7% shooting including a 31.2% mark from behind the arc resulting in just 57.1 PPG. They also rank third in the nation by forcing turnovers in 27.0% of their opponent’s possessions — and they should force plenty of turnovers against this Sooners team that ranks 222nd in the nation by turning the ball over in 17.7% of their possessions. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight home games with the Total set in the 130s. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams who are winning 60-80% of their games. Oklahoma nailed 50.7% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last 15 games. But the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win against a Big 12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their previous games this season after pulling off an upset victory. Oklahoma did allow the Cowboys to make 57.4% of their shots in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 55% or more of their shots. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after giving up 80 or more points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have a 6-5 record with an average losing margin of -1.1 PPG — but their drop in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing in a hostile environment presents the 243rd biggest discrepancy in the nation relative to their play at home. They only make 44.9% of their shots on the road in hostile environments including just 29.4% of their 3-pointers which is the 306th lowest mark in the nation. Oklahoma ranks 206nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 48.4% — and that drop compared to their eFG when at home or on a neutral court of -6.8% is the 332nd biggest discrepancy in the nation. On defense, the Sooners are allowing +9.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing in a hostile environment which is the 344th worst discrepancy versus their defensive efficiency at home or on a neutral court. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa State wants to avenge a 71-63 loss at Oklahoma back on January 6th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities for revenge from a loss on the road. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month is with the Iowa State Cyclones (738) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (737). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-27-24 |
Pittsburgh v. Clemson OVER 141 |
Top |
62-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (631) and the Clemson Tigers (632). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (18-9) has won six of their last seven games after their 79-64 victory at Virginia Tech as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Clemson (19-8) has won five of their last six games with their 74-63 win against Florida State as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers held the Hokies to just 40.7% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But Pittsburgh is vulnerable on the defensive end of the court — especially in the interior where they rank 13th in the ACC by allowing their opponents to make 53.3% of their 2-point shots. And in their true road games, they allow their home hosts to make 56.3% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 329th in the nation. The Tigers' big man P.J. Hall should have a big night — he is scoring 18.7 Points-Per-Game while making more than 68% of his shots in the paint. Clemson ranks 38th in the nation by making 54.4% of their shots inside the arc. The Panthers have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points on their home court. Additionally, while Pitt has covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while they have won eight of their last ten games, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning at least eight of their last ten games. The Panthers rank just eighth in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.3% of their shots. But Pitt can put up points as they take advantage of most of their possessions and launch tons of 3s. They rank 18th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 14.2% of their possessions. They also rank 25th in the nation by taking 45.0% of their shots from behind the arc. On the road, they are scoring 72.9 PPG — and they rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing in hostile environments. They are scoring +9.1 more points per 100 possessions when playing on the road when compared to their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home. The Panthers have played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total. And while the Tigers hold their opponents to 41.4% shooting, Pitt has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total against teams who hold their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting from the field. Clemson held the Seminoles to just 36.9% shooting on Saturday on the heels of limiting Georgia Tech to a 30.2% field goal percentage last Wednesday — but they have then played 6 straight Overs after holding their last two opponents to no higher than 37% shooting. They only made 44.0% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five contests. But the Tigers are still making 49.8% of their shots in their also five games — and they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Clemson has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 7 straight Overs after a double-digit win at home. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while they have played two straight games Under the Total, they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They return home where they are allowing +1.9 more points per possession per 100 possessions in adjusted numbers — and that number ranks 245th in the largest home/road discrepancy. They are scoring 80.3 PPG at home — and they have played 12 of their last 19 home games over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, Clemson has played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total in February. And while the Panthers are outscoring their opponents by +6.0 PPG, the Tigers have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh looks to avenge a 79-70 upset loss at home to Clemson as a 4.5-point underdog back on December 3rd — and they have played 5 of their last 6 opportunities for revenge Over the Total. The Panthers have also played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponent. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (631) and the Clemson Tigers (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-24 |
Coppin State v. Howard UNDER 139.5 |
Top |
69-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Coppin State Eagles (306639) and the Howard Bison (306640). THE SITUATION: Coppin State (2-22) has lost eight games in a row after their 68-66 loss to Norfolk State as a 12-point underdog on Saturday. Howard (12-15) has won three of their last four games after their 78-72 victory against Morgan State as a 10.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles are far away from being one of the best teams in college basketball — and it starts with their offense where they rank last in Division I in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank third to the bottom in Division I with their effective field goal percentage of 40.3. They only made 32.7% of their shots on Saturday in their narrow loss — and while I like to fade outlier shooting efforts like that in a team’s next game, that shooting performance was only tied for their sixth-lowest mark of the season. Coppin State has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home. They only scored 24 points in the first half on Saturday — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They go back on the road where the adjusted efficiency numbers project them to score -10.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than they do when playing at home. They are only making 36.0% of their shots away from home including 26.0% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in only 53.3 Points-Per-Game. Coppin State has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog getting 12.5 to 18 points. If there is one thing that the Eagles do well, it is force turnovers — they rank 16th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions. The Bison are vulnerable in this area since they turn the ball over in 21.3% of their possessions, ranking 350th in the nation. Taking away Howard’s scoring opportunities should keep the score of this game down. Coppin State also plays at a slow pace — their games average 66.4 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 264th in the nation. The Eagles have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Howard has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They stay at home where they hold their opponents to just 42.9% shooting including a 31.4% clip from behind the arc. And while the Bison are a good shooting team at home, they are going to lose possessions to this Eagles team because they turn the ball over in 22.4% of their possessions when playing at home, ranking 359th in the nation. Howard has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored or a pick ‘em. They have been favored by double-digits three previous times this season — and all three games finished Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Howard won the first meeting between these two teams on January 29th by an 81-66 score — but Coppin State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. The Eagles have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Coppin State Eagles (306639) and the Howard Bison (306640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-24 |
Kings v. Clippers UNDER 239 |
Top |
123-107 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (32-23) has won two straight games after their 127-122 victory against San Antonio as a 10.5-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (37-18) has won two of their last three games after their 101-95 victory as a 9-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings made 55.9% of their shots against the Spurs which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. And while that final score cruised Over the 242-point total in that contest, Sacramento has then played 22 of their last 33 games on the road Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The Kings have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Sacramento ranks ninth in the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.0 — but now they go back on the road where that metric drops to 114.6, ranking 15th in the NBA. Their 115.7 Points-Per-Game scoring average on the road is -2.9 PPG below their season average. But the Kings tighten things up on defense when playing in hostile environments. While they rank 27th in defensive efficiency in the half-court when playing at home, they improve to a 19th ranking in the half-court when on the road. And while they rank 27th in transition defense at home, they rise to a ranking of 17th when on the road. Overall, Sacramento ranks 10th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 114.6 when on the road which is a big improvement versus their 118.1 mark at home which ranks 26th in the league. Their home hosts are making 47.8% of their shots resulting in 115.6 PPGG which is -0.9% and -2.4 PPG below their season averages. The Kings have played 24 of their last 35 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has played 8 straight Unders at home after a win by six points or less — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Clippers have covered the point spread only once in their last six games (three games ago) — and they have played 8 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. They return home where they hold their guests to just 110.5 PPG on 46.3% shooting — and they rank 11th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 111.9 which is much better than their 116.4 mark when on the road, ranking 15th in the league. But while they lead the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119.6 when on the road, that number drops to 118.6 when at home which ranks just 10th in the league when measuring home court efficiency. The Kings are vulnerable to good 3-point shooting teams since they are last in the league by allowing their opponents to make 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc. But Los Angeles is not a prolific shooting team from distance since only 38.1% of their shots are from behind 3-point range, ranking 17th in the NBA. They may be without two of their best 3-point shooters as well with both Paul George and Norman Powell questionable with nagging injuries.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home when favored by up to six points — and the Kings have played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (571) and the Los Angeles Clippers (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-24 |
Wright State v. Oakland OVER 159.5 |
Top |
96-75 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (841) and the Oakland Grizzlies (842). THE SITUATION: Wright State (16-12) has won two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 93-78 victory at Detroit Mercy as a 10.5-point favorite on Thursday. Oakland (19-10) has won four games in a row as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 63-43 win at Robert Morris as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Raiders nailed 53.3% of their shots on Thursday which was the fifth time in their last six games where they shot 50% or better from the field — and they have scored 85 or more points in four of their last five games. But they allowed the Titans to make 51.7% of their shots which was the third time in their last four games where their opponents made at least 50% of their shots. Wright State is an Over Machine because they shoot great and play at a fast pace but can’t stop anybody on the other end. The Raiders rank second in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 58.6% — and they rank in the top 11 in the nation in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. But they also rank 353rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponents post a 56.6% effective field goal percentage against them, ranking 354th in the nation. Wright State ranks 28th in the nation by averaging only 15.9 seconds per possession — and they rank 31st in the nation by averaging 71.0 adjusted possessions per game. The Raiders have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three contests. While this is their second game since last Saturday, they have also played 11 straight Overs when playing for the second time in eight days. They stay on the road where they average slightly more 73.2 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 17th in the nation. They make 51.8% of their shots on the road along with 41.0% of their 3-pointers (which leads the nation) resulting in 85.1 Points-Per-Game. But they allow their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots away from home resulting in 84.0 PPG. Wright State has played 11 of their last 12 road games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog of six points or less or as a pick ‘em. Oakland only made 34.5% of their shots on Thursday which was their worst shooting of the season — but they also held the Colonials to just 28.3% shooting in what was the best defensive effort of their campaign. While that final score flew Under the 147-point total, the Grizzlies have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have played 11 of their last 14 home games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have played 15 of their last 18 home games Over the Total after winning four games in a row — and they have played 6 straight Overs at home after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They return home where they made 47.6% of their shots including 39.6% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 82.2 PPG. They also average 69.2 adjusted possessions per game at home which is +1.9 possessions above their season average. But the Grizzlies defense takes a step back when they are playing at home. While Oakland ranks 146th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and second in Horizon League play, those numbers drop to 253rd in the nation and eighth in the conference when they are playing at home. The collapse comes from their interior defense as they allow their guests to make 52.5% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 308th in the nation — and Wright State ranks ninth in the nation by making 56.4% of their 2-pointers when playing away from home. Oakland has played 16 of their last 23 home games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total in February.
FINAL TAKE: The Raiders want to avenge a 74-60 upset loss at home to Oakland back on February 10th in their worst shooting game of the season where they made only 33.8% of their shots including just 5 of their 28 (17.9%) shots from behind the arc. Wright State has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Horizon League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (841) and the Oakland Grizzlies (842). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-24-24 |
Pepperdine v. San Francisco OVER 149 |
Top |
68-92 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Waves (799) and the San Francisco Dons (800). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (12-17) has won two games in a row after their 89-70 victory at Pacific as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. San Francisco (21-7) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 70-66 loss at Saint Mary’s as a 7.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Waves held Pacific to just 41.9% shooting on Wednesday which was the second-best defensive effort in their last eight games. But Pepperdine continues to struggle with their half-court defense as they rank 350th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.2% — and they allow their opponents to make 54.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 327th. The Wave have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. They have averaged a whopping 90 points in their last two games with both those contests combining for 160 points — and they have played 7 straight Overs after playing two games in a row where 155 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they allow their opponents to make 53.6% of their shots resulting in 84.4 Points-Per-Game. Pepperdine allows their opponents to nail 48.1% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home, ranking 362nd in the nation. Their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 60.4% away from home ranks 362nd in the country. The Wave have played 17 of their last 22 road games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog. They should be able to generate offense against the Dons tonight by getting to the free-throw line. Pepperdine ranks second in the West Coast Conference in getting to the charity stripe — and San Francisco ranks 295th in the nation and ninth in the West Coast Conference in putting their opponents on the line. The Wave have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. San Francisco has played 6 straight Overs at home after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They have also played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Dons are one of the best shooting teams in the nation — they rank 19th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.5%. Led by 6’9 Jonathan Mogbo, they should have their way inside against the weak interior defense of the Wave as they rank eighth in the nation by making 57.9% of their shots inside the arc. After playing their last two games on the road, San Francisco returns home where they make 52.1% of their shots resulting in 84.7 PPG. They also rank 50th in the nation by nailing a healthy 38.8% of their shots from behind the arc. The Dons have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco won the first meeting between these two teams by an 80-74 score as a 9.5-point favorite on February 8th. Pepperdine has played 21 of their opportunities for revenge Over the Total — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed 75 or more points. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Waves (799) and the San Francisco Dons (800). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-24-24 |
Maryland-Baltimore County +5.5 v. New Hampshire |
Top |
86-68 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (306555) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (306556). THE SITUATION: UMBC (9-19) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in a 62-56 loss at Maine as a 4.5-point underdog. New Hampshire (15-10) has won two of their last three games in an 83-78 victory against the New Jersey Institute of Technology as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RETRIEVERS PLUS THE POINTS: Maryland-Baltimore Country only made 37.3% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 26 contests. Despite that disappointing performance, the Retrievers still lead the America East Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road — and they rank 31st in the nation with their 53.1% effective field goal percentage. UMBC generates good looks at the basket when playing away from home because they play at a blistering pace — they rank second in the nation by averaging only 14.4 seconds per possession. They also rank seventh in the country by averaging 73.4 adjusted possessions per game. While the Retrievers have just a 4-9 record in conference play, seven of their losses have been by six points or less — and two of those losses were by just two points or less. UMBC should play better this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games after a straight-up loss this season. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss to an American East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 160s. The Retrievers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. New Hampshire nailed 53.7% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort of the season. The Wildcats converted 11 of their 27 (40.7%) of their 3-pointers in that game — but now they play a UMBC team that ranks 26th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 30.6% shooting from behind the arc. New Hampshire has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when playing with just one day of rest. The Wildcats rank just eighth in the American East in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing at home in conference play — and UMBC ranks fourth in the conference in Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing on the road against American East foes. New Hampshire is only making 44.3% of their shots including 34.6% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. This team also plays at a fast pace — they rank 26th in the nation by averaging only 15.6 seconds per possession and they rank 21st by averaging 71.2 adjusted possessions per game. But New Hampshire tends to underachieve against similar fast-paced teams. UMBC averages 64 shots per game — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after 15 games into the season against teams who launch 62 or more shots per game. On the other hand, while New Hampshire averages 62 shots per game, the Retrievers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who take 62 or more shots per game.
FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats did win the first meeting between these two teams in a 64-58 win on the road as a 3-point favorite on January 20th — but UMBC has covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 opportunities for revenge this season. The Retrievers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB American East Underdog of the Year with the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (306555) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (306556). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-24 |
Heat v. Pelicans UNDER 219 |
Top |
106-95 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). THE SITUATION: Miami (30-25) returns to the court tonight for the first time since the All-Star break after winning four of their last five games with their 109-014 upset victory at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog back on February 14th. New Orleans (34-22) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 127-105 win against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat stepped up their play on defense heading into the break. They held their last five opponents to 46.4% shooting which resulted in just 102.0 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -8.4 PPG and -1.0% below their respective season averages. They have held eight straight opponents to no more than 110 points — and they have held six of those opponents to 104 or fewer points. But Miami continues to struggle on the other end of the court as they have not scored more than 110 points in 14 of their last 18 games. Injuries will likely hold them back in scoring tonight. Terry Rozier is out with a knee and Josh Richardson is out with a shoulder — and Tyler Herro is questionable with a foot issue. As it is, the Heat have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Miami has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when enjoying a rest advantage versus their opponent. The Heat have played four straight Unders — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. On the road, they are scoring only 108.0 PPG — but they are allowing just 107.7 PPG. They have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, they have played 24 of their last 36 road games Under the Total with Total set in the 210s. New Orleans has played 9 straight Undress at home after a double-digit victory — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Pelicans made 52.1% of their shots last night after going into the All-Star break by making 56.2% against Washington — but they have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Both those games finished Over the Total — but they have then played 6 straight Unders after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing no more than their third game in the last ten days. With Brandon Ingram questionable with an illness and Zion Williamson questionable with his nagging left foot issues, they may be without one or two of their best scorers. As it is, New Orleans has averaged 114.2 PPG in their last five games which is -2.4 PPG below their season average. The Pelicans' play on the other end of the court has been outstanding — they rank sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 106 points — and they have held three of their last four opponents to no more than 105 points with two of those teams only scoring 84 and 87 points. Their last five opponents have scored just 108.2 PPG which is -3.9 PPG below their season average.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these struggle to score in crunch time which may explain why the Heat have played 17 of their last 24 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Pelicans have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (541) and the New Orleans Pelicans (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-24 |
Cleveland State v. Northern Kentucky -2.5 |
Top |
73-75 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Northern Kentucky Norse (752) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (751). THE SITUATION: Northern Kentucky (14-13) saw their three-game snapped in a 73-72 loss at Wisconsin-Milwaukee as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Cleveland State (16-11) has won two of their last three games after an 81-73 upset win against Youngstown State as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NORSE MINUS THE POINTS: Northern Kentucky should bounce back with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss to a Horizon League rival. The Norse have still covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after covering the point spread in their last two contests. This team leads the Horizon League in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 35th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponents' possessions — and they force turnovers in 22.0% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on their home court. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return to play for just the second time since last Wednesday — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when playing for the second time in eight days. Northern Kentucky has a 10-3 record at home with an average winning margin of +11.2 net Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 44.4% shooting at home including a 29.9% clip from behind the arc resulting in 69.5 PPG. They also rank 56.6% of their shots inside the arc at home which ranks 49th in the nation — and they are making 48.9% of their shots at home overall resulting in 80.7 PPG. Northern Kentucky has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after playing their last two games on the road. Cleveland State held the Penguins to just 43.1% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. They also nailed 53.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games and tied for their best effort in their last 20 contests. But the Vikings have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, while they have won four of their last six games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where their defense falters — they rank 328th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Of particular concern is their interior defense when playing Northern Kentucky — they allow their opponents to make 57.8% of their shots inside the arc when on the road, ranking 351st in the nation. They also allow their opponents to pull down 36.5% of their missed shots when playing away from home, ranking 339th in the nation. The Norse pull down a solid 31.9% of their misses when playing at home. Cleveland State has a 4-9 record on the road with an average losing margin of -4.7 PPG. They allow their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots away from home resulting in 77.6 PPG. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set in the 145-149.5 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last two games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog of up to six points or a pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games in 10 of their last 14 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have 9-7 records in the Horizon League — but Cleveland State won the first meeting between these teams by an 88-85 score at home as a 4.5-point favorite on January 7th. The Norse have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Horizon League Game of the Year with the Northern Kentucky Norse (752) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-21-24 |
Furman v. Samford -7 |
Top |
72-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Samford Bulldogs (692) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (691). THE SITUATION: Samford (23-4) was on a six-game winning streak before their 88-84 upset loss at Mercer as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. Furman (15-12) has won three games in a row with their 82-65 victory against UT-Chattanooga as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Samford might be coming off their worst-played game of the season. They allowed the Bears to make 54.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 26 games. They also only made 43.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests — and tied for the worst shooting performance in their last 25 games. They should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss to a Southern Conference opponent. The Bulldogs should shoot much better tonight as they rank sixth in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 57.2%. While they rank 27th in the nation with their shooting inside the arc, their 40.5% clip from behind the arc is the best mark in the country. Samford combines this excellent shooting by playing at a very fast pace. They rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Possessions per game — and they are sixth in the nation by averaging only 15.0 seconds per possession. Additionally, the Bulldogs push the pace by pressing on defense — they rank 13th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.4% of their opponents' possessions. After scoring 170 combined points in their last two games, Samford has scored at least 75 points in seven straight contests. They have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after scoring 75 or more points in five or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored 80 or more combined points. They return home where they have a 15-0 record with an average winning margin of +21.2 Points-Per-Game. The Bulldogs hold their opponents to just 43.1% shooting when playing at home — but they are nearly unstoppable on the other end of the court. They are making 52.4% of their shots on their home court including a nation-leading 43.9% of their shots from 3-point range resulting in 97.0 Points-Per-Game. Samford has covered the point spread in 8 of their 13 boarded games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. They have also covered the point spread in expected high-scoring games where the Total is set at 160 or higher. Furman played their best defensive game of the season on Sunday by holding the Moccasins to just 33.9% shooting. And while the Paladins do a good job in defending the perimeter, they rank 332nd in the nation when playing on the road by allowing their opponents to make 56.1% of their shots inside the arc. Furman had not covered the point spread in six straight games before their triumph against Chattanooga — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four of their last five games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road where they are just 4-10 while allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots and score 80.8 PPG. On the other end of the court, the Paladins only make 42.6% of their shots including just 32.4% of their shots from 3-point range resulting in 77.9 PPG. Furman scores 80.0 PPG this season — but the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams scoring 77.0 or more PPG. The Paladins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Furman won the first meeting between these two teams by a 78-68 score back on January 24th — but Samford has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 opportunities for same-season revenge. The Paladins are outscoring their opponents by +4.5 PPG — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB Southern Conference Game of the Year is with the Samford Bulldogs (692) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (691). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-17-24 |
NC-Greensboro v. Wofford OVER 139 |
Top |
58-47 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (747) and the Wofford Terriers (748). THE SITUATION: UNC-Greensboro (18-8) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 76-61 win at The Citadel as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday. Wofford (15-11) has won two in a row and three of their last four contests after their 73-60 upset win at Mercer as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spartans held the Bulldogs to just 39.1% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. But UNC-Greensboro remains a below-average defensive team — they rank seventh in the Southern Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But what this team does well is shoot 3s — they rank eighth in the nation by making 39.0% of their shots from behind the arc. Even better, in their last ten contests, they are nailing 42.3% of their 3-pointers, ranking third in the country. The Spartans have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Over the Total after a double-digit win on the road. They have also played 26 of their last 39 games on the road Over the Total after a win on the road. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Their game against The Citadel finished Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. They stay on the road where they are making 37.9% of their 3-pointers to help them score 72.1 Points-Per-Game. UNC-Greensboro has played 28 of their last 42 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when favored. Wofford has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win on the road against a conference rival — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Furthermore, the Terriers have played 8 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Wofford converted 10 of their 24 (41.7%) of their shots from behind the arc against the Bears on the heels of nailing 11 of their 26 (42.3%) — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after hitting 10 or more shots from behind the arc in two or more games in a row. And while the Terriers have not allowed more than 64 points in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three or more games in a row. Despite these recent results, Wofford is not a great defensive team — they rank eighth in the Southern Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Even worse for this matchup, they rank 329th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.5% of their 3-pointers — and conference rivals are nailing 37.5% of their 3s. UNC-Greensboro makes 10 shots from distance per game from 25 shots from behind the arc on average. The Terriers have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams who attempt 21 or more 3s per game — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against opponents who make eight or more shots from behind the arc per game. Wofford is a good shooting team as well — they rank 38th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.1%. They return home where they are making 50.1% of their shots including 37.9% of their 3s resulting in 82.5 PPG. The Terriers have played 15 of their last 20 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Spartans won the first meeting between these two teams by an 82-59 score as a 6-point home favorite back on January 20th — and Wofford has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (747) and the Wofford Terriers (748). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-24 |
Siena v. St. Peter's UNDER 128.5 |
Top |
53-75 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (875) and the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (876). THE SITUATION: Siena (4-20) snapped their seven-game losing streak in a 68-63 victory at Manhattan as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. Saint Peter’s (11-11) has lost four games in a row after their 64-62 loss to Fairfield as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints only made 41.5% of their shots against the Jaspers — but it was still their best shooting effort in their last four games. They had not scored more than 61 points in their previous six games — and they only topped 52 points in five of those six contests. Siena is one of the worst-scoring teams in the country. They rank 359th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 353rd of the 362 teams in Division I with an effective field goal percentage of 44.4%. To make matters worse, they turn the ball over in 24.4% of their possessions, ranking second to last in the nation — so they do not even get a shot off in one of every four possessions. The Saints have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while their game with Manhattan finished far below the 139.5 point total, they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Siena stays on the road where they are only making 41.9% of their shots and 21.9% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in just 60.0 Points-Per-Game. The Saints have played 21 of their last 29 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points including five of these last six circumstances. Saint Peter’s made 41.8% of their shots against the Stags last week which was their best shooting performance in their last six contests — they had not made more than 38.3% of their shots in their previous five games. The Peacocks rank 323rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 355th with an effective field goal percentage of 44.1%. But this team can play defense — they rank 98th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking second in that metric in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Critical in this matchup, they rank 24th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.4% of their opponents’ possessions — so Siena is likely to struggle to score much more than even 50 points in this one. Saint Peter’s has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference opponent. Furthermore, they have outshot their last two opponents by 11 and 14 attempts — and they played 19 of their last 21 games Under the Total after attempting at least 10 more shots from the field than their opponent in two straight games. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their last game. Uncharacteristically, they have allowed their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots from the field — but now they stay at home where they rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on their home court while limiting their guests to only 63.7 PPG. But the Peacocks’ offense is even worse at home where they rank 359th in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and with their 42.0% effective field goal percentage. Saint Peter’s makes only 37.1% of their shots including 29.9% of their 3-pointers when playing at home resulting in just 65.2 PPG. The Peacocks have played 7 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 29 of their last 44 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play at a slow pace. The Saints average 67.0 adjusted possessions per game which is below the 67.7 national average — and the 18.6 seconds per possession that average ranks 307th in the nation. The Peacocks rank 341st in the nation in both their 63.8 adjusted possessions per game and the 19.4 seconds per possession they average. These two teams played on January 28th when Saint Peter’s won by a 63-52 score as a 10-point favorite — and Siena has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (875) and the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (876). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-15-24 |
Idaho State v. Eastern Washington OVER 144.5 |
Top |
82-88 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (795) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (796). THE SITUATION: Idaho State (11-14) has won three games in a row after their 68-65 victory as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Eastern Washington (16-8) has won three in a row and 12 of their last 13 contests after their 87-79 loss to Idaho as a 14.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles are one of the best shooting teams in the country. They rank 10th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.4% — and they rank 19th in both 2-point and 3-point shooting. They should pour on the points tonight against a Bengals defense that ranks 273rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.7% ranks 332nd in the nation. Eastern Washington has scored 78 or more points in three straight games along with 177 combined points in their last two contests. The Eagles have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win at home against a Big Sky rival — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored 75 or more points. Furthermore, they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 7 straight home games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. They stay at home where they make 55.0% of their shots including 39.7% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 89.7 Points-Per-Game. Eastern Washington has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Idaho State has played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. The Bengals had covered the point spread in their four previous contests — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Idaho State goes back on the road where they have played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 13 road games Over the Total in February. They have also played 21 of their last 27 road games Over the Total as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. They have played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Bengals have also played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played four of their five games this season.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Eastern Washington’s 79-67 win on the road as a 5.5-point favorite on January 20th — and Idaho State has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (795) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (796). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-12-24 |
Lehigh +2 v. Bucknell |
Top |
71-63 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306629) plus the point(s) versus the Bucknell Bison (306630). THE SITUATION: Lehigh (8-15) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 94-90 win in double overtime against Lafayette as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Bucknell (10-15) has lost two of their last three games after their 77-62 upset loss at home against Boston University as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAIN HAWKS PLUS THE POINT(S): Lehigh survived two overtimes on Saturday despite allowing the Leopards to make 55.6% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort of the season. The Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing two of their last three games. This is Lehigh’s third game since Wednesday — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing their third game in seven days. This team appears to be finding itself under Dr. Brett Reed in his 17th year as the head coach. His team got hot in the second half of conference play last year with the Mountain Hawks finishing tied for second place in the Patriot League. While Lehigh has just a 5-7 record in conference play this season, they rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The Mountain Hawks are 13th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down only 23.9% of their missed shots. They also lead in the Patriot League in getting to the free throw line and in making 73.6% of their shots at the charity stripe — and now they play a Bison team that ranks ninth in the league in putting their opponents on the free throw line. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 road games after playing their last two games at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, Lehigh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. Bucknell averages 53 shots per game — and the Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 road games against teams who do not attempt more than 53 shots per game. Lehigh has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a losing record after 15 games into the season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 40-49% of their games. The Bison have a 7-5 record in the Patriot League — and they rank third in Adjusted Efficiency Margin under rookie head coach John Griffin III. But Bucknell has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after an upset loss — as they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss by double-digits. The Bison rank eighth in the Patriot League by turning the ball over in 18.1% of their possessions — and Lehigh ranks second in the conference by forcing turnovers in 17.8% of their opponents' possessions. Griffin has yet to re-establish a home-court advantage for Bucknell as they have just a 4-7 record at home while getting outscored by -3.6 net Points-Per-Game. The Bison have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 home games when favored or a pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Lehigh wants to avenge an 86-80 upset loss at home against Bucknell as a 5-point favorite on January 10th. The Mountain Hawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 opportunities for revenge this season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 75 or more points. 25* CBB Patriot League Underdog of the Year with the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (306629) plus the point(s) versus the Bucknell Bison (306630). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-10-24 |
Drake v. Bradley -3.5 |
Top |
74-67 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Bradley Braves (758) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (757). THE SITUATION: Bradley (17-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in a 73-70 upset loss at Evansville as a 9-point favorite on Wednesday. Drake (19-5) has won three of their last four games after their 92-88 win against Southern Illinois as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE POINTS: Bradley only made 42.4% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 contests. But the Braves have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss on the road to a Missouri Valley Conference rival. It was a rare bad day at the offense for this team regarding shooting the basketball — they rank 12th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.5%. They also rank 16th in the nation by nailing 38.1% of their shots from behind the arc — and they lead the Missouri Valley Conference by making 39.6% of their 3-pointers in conference play. After playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have a 10-2 record with an average winning margin of +13.8 net Points-Per-Game. They are making 49.3% of their shots at home resulting in 79.2 PPG. They are also playing well on the other end of the court where they are holding their guests to just 40.6% shooting resulting in 65.4 PPG. Bradley has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 38 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 25 games at home when favored or a pick ‘em. Drake made 56.9% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 2 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home against a conference river. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road after a win where they scored 80 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win at home where they scored 85 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road where they won straight-up but did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Drake is second in the nation in defensive rebounding — but they will be challenged by the Braves who lead the Missouri Valley by pulling down 31.1% of their missed shots. The Bulldogs’ defense takes a step back when they are playing on the road. Their opponents sport an effective field goal percentage of 52.8% when they are playing away from home, ranking 238th in the nation — and Drake ranks no higher than 215th in the nation in opponent 3-point shooting and opponent 2-point shooting when they are away from home. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog overall.
FINAL TAKE: This is Bradley’s first opportunity to play Drake since their 77-51 loss to them as a 2-point underdog in the Championship Game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last March 5th which cost them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Braves have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Bradley Braves (758) minus the points versus the Drake Bulldogs (757). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-10-24 |
Kennesaw State v. Lipscomb OVER 169.5 |
Top |
95-101 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kennesaw State Owls (306605) and the Lipscomb Bisons (306606). THE SITUATION: Kennesaw State (13-11) has lost five games in a row after their 85-69 loss at Austin Peay as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Lipscomb (15-10) has won two games in a row after their 90-88 win against Queens University as a 7.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Owls scored their fewest points in 22 contests in their loss on Thursday. Kennesaw State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset loss against an Atlantic Sun rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The Owls rank 320th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have given up at least 85 points in five straight games. Kennesaw State has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in three straight games. They stay on the road where they are scoring 81.5 Points-Per-Game — but they are allowing their opponents to make 48.0% of their shots including 36.8% of their 3-pointers away from home which is resulting in 86.1 Points-Per-Game. Kennesaw State has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog. Lipscomb has scored 81 or more points in seven of their last nine games after nailing 52.2% of their shots on Thursday — and that was the fifth time in their last seven games that have shot 51.7% or better from the field. But the Bisons allowed the Royals to shoot 50% from the field as well which was the fifth time in their last seven games where their opponent shot 50% or better. In their last five games, their opponents are making 50.3% of their shots resulting in 81.4 PPG. Lipscomb has played 7 straight Overs after allowing 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Overs after playing at home where both teams scored at least 75 points. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total after a game where 165 or more combined points were scored. On their home court, the Bisons are making 54.8% of their shots and 42.4% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 91.9 PPG. But they are giving up 77.1 PPG when playing at home where they rank 358th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Furthermore, Lipscomb has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is approaching the 170 mark for good reasons — both of these teams struggled to play defense while Kennesaw State plays at one of the fastest paces in the nation. The Owls lead the nation by only averaging 14.0 seconds per possession. They rank sixth in the nation with 73.9 adjusted average possessions per game — and that mark rises to 76.3 adjusted possessions per game when away from home, ranking second in the nation. Lipscomb plays at above-average pace as well — so they will be happy to accommodate the fast pace given how good they are on offense. The Bisons rank 62nd in the nation by averaging 16.4 seconds per possession. They rank 108th in the nation with 69.0 adjusted possessions per game — and that mark rises to 70.6 adjusted possessions per game when they are playing at home. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kennesaw State Owls (306605) and the Lipscomb Bisons (306606). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-24 |
Jacksonville v. Lipscomb -11.5 |
Top |
82-84 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Lipscomb Bisons (306610) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306609). THE SITUATION: Lipscomb (13-10) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 85-76 loss at North Florida as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Jacksonville (11-11) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 63-43 upset win against Austin Peay as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BISONS MINUS THE POINTS: Despite their 4-4 record in the Atlantic Sun Conference, Lipscomb still ranks as the top team in the conference according to the Adjusted Net Efficiency Margins of Ken Pomeroy — and they have an impressive victory against Florida State this season. The Bisons have been resilient after losses this season — they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They need to tighten up on defense after allowing 85 and 80 points in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last games after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Now after playing their last three games on the road, they return home where they have a 7-1 record with an average winning margin of +18.0 net Points-Per-Game. Lipscomb has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home including five of their last six boarded home games this season. They are holding their guests to just 41.6% shooting resulting in 75.1 PPG. But it is the Bison’s shooting on their home court that sets them apart. They lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 62.7% when playing at home — they are nailing 55.1% of their shots resulting in 93.1 PPG when in front of their home fans. Lipscomb is second in the Atlantic Sun by hitting 40.3% of their 3-pointers — and they rank third in the nation by converting 45.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. They should make a ton of 3s this afternoon against this Dolphins team that is ninth in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 37.2% of their 3-pointers — and they rank 352nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to convert 39.7% of their 3-pointers when they are playing on the road. Jacksonville made 47.9% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games — and by holding the Governors to 34.0% shooting, they enjoyed their best defensive performance in their last 11 contests. But the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games after a point spread win. Jacksonville leads the conference by pulling down 33.1% of their missed shots — but the Bisons protect their defensive glass by limiting their conference opponents to rebounding just 24.3% of their misses, ranking second in the Atlantic Sun. The Dolphins stay on the road where they have a 3-10 record with an average losing margin of -15.6 net PPG. They only make 42.6% of their shots away from home resulting in 67.2 PPG. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning record. They have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games on the road as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as a double-digit underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 140s — and Lipscomb has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Conference Game of the Year with the Lipscomb Bisons (306610) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Dolphins (306609). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-31-24 |
Southern Miss v. Arkansas State -5 |
Top |
71-78 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (718) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (717). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (8-13) has lost two games in a row and four of their last five contests after an 85-82 loss in overtime at UL-Monroe as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Southern Mississippi (12-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 83-67 loss at Marshall as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State only made 32.9% of their shots on Sunday which was the second-worst shooting effort of the season and their worst effort in 16 games. Under head coach Bryan Hodgson, the Red Wolves lead the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing four of their last five games. Now after playing their last four games on the road, the Red Wolves return home for the first time since January 13th where they have a 5-2 record along with an average winning margin of +9.4 Points-Per-Game. On their home court is where Hodgson’s offensive attack explodes — the former assistant for Nate Oats at Alabama has his team rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home. Arkansas State makes 50.4% of their shots at home resulting in 88.4 PPG which is +10.1 PPG above their season average. Hodgson plays the math game by having his team take 46.7% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 24th in the nation. Arkansas State ranks second in the conference by making 37.1% of their 3-pointers — and they rank 17th in the nation by hitting 42.3% of their shots from behind the arc when at home. They should hit plenty of 3-pointers against this Golden Eagles squad that ranks 342nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.2% of their shots from 3-point range. The Red Wolves should also get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight as they rank 63rd in the nation by pulling down 33.1% of their missed shots — and Southern Mississippi allows their opponents to rebound 31.4% of their missed shots, ranking 272nd in the nation. The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 2 road games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after winning three of their last four games. Southern Mississippi lacks the offensive firepower to keep up with the Red Wolves when they are playing at home. The Golden Eagles rank 12th in the Sun Belt by making only 46.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they have scored less than 70 points in four of their last five games. They stay on the road where they have a 5-8 record while getting outscored by -6.5 PPG. Southern Mississippi makes only 42.4% of their shots on the road resulting in only 69.5 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 49 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Arkansas State is looking to avenge a 69-66 upset loss at Southern Mississippi as a 3-point underdog on January 17th. The Red Wolves get this rematch at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 150 to 154.5 point range. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (718) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (717). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-24 |
Morgan State v. Norfolk State -13 |
Top |
73-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Norfolk State Spartans (306638) minus the points versus the Morgan State Bears (306637). THE SITUATION: Norfolk State (13-8) has won three straight games after their 68-58 victory against Coppin State as a 15-point favorite on Saturday. Morgan State (6-14) has won two straight games after their 85-79 upset victory as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: Norfolk State is the top-ranked team in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference according to Ken Pomeroy’s Adjusted Net Efficiency metrics — and they have an impressive non-conference victory against VCU. The Spartans missed all of their 12 shots from behind the arc on Saturday — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after nailing no more than 20% of their shots from behind the arc. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a double-digit win at home. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games at home after winning four of their last five contests. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games when playing with only one day of rest. They stay at home where they are 9-0 with an average winning margin of +33.3 net Points-Per-Game. Norfolk State holds their opponents to just 36.3% shooting resulting in only 60.6 PPG. They also nail 52.0% of their shots at home resulting in 93.9 PPG. The Spartans have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. Norfolk has several ways to generate extra-scoring possessions to help them blow out the Bears. They rank 22nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.8% of their opponent’s possessions. Morgan State is very vulnerable on this front as they rank 338th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.9% of their possessions. The Spartans also lead the MEAC by pulling down 35.0% of their missed shots in conference play — and the Bears rank last in the conference by allowing their opponents to rebound 38.3% of their missed shots. Furthermore, Norfolk State ranks ninth in the nation in getting to the free throw line where they make 75.7% of their freebies (47th in the nation) — and Morgan State ranks 331st in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line. The Bears made 54.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting performance in their last eight games. But Morgan State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after an upset victory. That final score finished Over the 153.5-point total — but the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row. They go back on the road where they have a 1-11 record with an average losing margin of -18.3 net PPG. They allow their home hosts to make 49.3% of their shots including 36.3% of their shots from behind the arc resulting in 83.7 PPG. Morgan State makes only 40.9% of their shots on the road including just 29.1% of their 3-pointers resulting in only 65.4 PPG. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set from 145 to 149.5.
FINAL TAKE: Morgan State ranks 323rd and 353rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency respectively. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog getting 12.5 or more points. The Spartans have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games when laying 12.5 to 15 points. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Norfolk State Spartans (306638) minus the points versus the Morgan State Bears (306637). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-24 |
Texas v. BYU -7 |
Top |
72-84 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Brigham Young Cougars (662) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (661). THE SITUATION: BYU (14-5) has lost two games in a row after their 75-68 loss against Houston as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Texas (14-5) has won two games in a row after their 75-60 upset victory at Oklahoma as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has lost four of their last six games as they experience the gauntlet of Big 12 play. Those four losses were against conference opponents that all rank in the top 32 teams according to Ken Pomeroy’s Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin ratings. The Cougars have registered quality wins against Iowa State and San Diego State which rank 12th and 22nd according to those Pomeroy rankings. This is a balanced team that ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 22nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency using Pomeroy’s metrics. BYU has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have played three straight games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after playing three or more games Over the Total. They stay at home where they have a 10-2 record this season with an average winning margin of +25.9 net Points-Per-Game. The Cougars hold their guests to just 39.6% shooting resulting in just 62.8 PPG. They also nail 48.4% of their shots at home resulting in 88.7 PPG. BYU has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 150s. Texas played their best defensive game in their last six games by holding the Sooners to just 39.3% shooting. But the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win on the road against a conference rival. Texas has scored 71 or more points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning two or more games in a row. And in their last 13 games when playing for just the second time in seven days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of those contests. The Longhorns rank just 30th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are even worse on the other end of the court where they rank 64th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.2% of their shots even after their strong effort against Oklahoma. Interior defense is a weakness as Texas allows Big 12 opponents to make 52.2% of their inside the arc — and BYU ranks seventh in the nation by converting 62.2% of their shots inside the arc when playing at home. The Longhorns stay on the road where they are getting outscored by -0.9 PPG due to them surrendering 77.3 PPG which is +10.3 PPG above their season average. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and the Cougars have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 45 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. 25* CBB Big 12 Game of the Month with the Brigham Young Cougars (662) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (661). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-24 |
Ohio v. Kent State OVER 146.5 |
Top |
71-64 |
Loss |
-116 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (877) and the Kent State Golden Flashes (878). THE SITUATION: Ohio (9-10) had their two-game losing streak snapped in a 67-58 loss at Akron as an 8-point underdog on Tuesday. Kent State (10-9) has won two of their last three games after their 90-84 upset win at Bowling Green in overtime as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bobcats only made 38.9% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. Ohio still leads the Mid-American Conference with an effective field goal percentage of 54.4% in conference play — so they should shoot better tonight. The Bobcats have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total on the road after failing to cover the point spread. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Toal after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. It is usually the other end of the court where Ohio struggles — they rank 265th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In conference play, their opponents are nailing 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc which is the worst mark in the Mid-American Conference. Now they face a Golden Flashes squad that ranks 30th in the nation by making 37.6% of their 3-pointers — and they lead the MAC by nailing 41.0% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play. Kent State takes 22 shots from 3-point land per game — and Ohio has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams who average 21 or more shots from behind the arc per game. The Bobcats allow their opponents to make 45.3% of their shots resulting in 77.8 Points-Per-Game which is +6.5 PPG above their season average. Ohio has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing on the road. Kent State held the Falcons to just 43.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. The Golden Flashes have allowed at least 76 points in five straight games — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. Furthermore, while Kent State has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in the last seven days. They return home where they are making 48.4% of their shots resulting in 84.2 PPG which is +5.7 PPG above their season average. The Golden Flashes have played 7 straight Overs when playing on their home court. They do allow their guests to make 47.4% of their shots resulting in 72.4 PPG which is +2.8 PPG above their season average. Kent State ranks 313th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.4% — and that mark has risen to a 55.6% clip in conference play. The Golden Flashes have allowed their last five opponents to make 50.9% of their shots resulting in 80.6 PPG. Ohio shoots 45.7% from the field while taking 24 shots from behind the arc per game. Kent State has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who make 45% or more of their shots — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams who attempt 21 or more shots from behind the arc per game.
FINAL TAKE: Ohio has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Golden Flashes have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (877) and the Kent State Golden Flashes (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-24 |
Northern Colorado v. Eastern Washington OVER 161.5 |
Top |
74-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (813) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (814). THE SITUATION: Northern Colorado (11-7) has won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 90-61 win against Portland State as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Eastern Washington (11-7) has won seven straight games after their 79-67 victory as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears have scored 77 or more points in eight straight games — and they have scored 83 or more points five times during that stretch. Northern Colorado has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points in their last game — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, the Bears have played 6 straight Overs after a win on the road against a Big Sky rival — and they have played 7 straight Overs after a win on the road after a victory on their home court. They have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while their victory against the Vikings finished Under the 158.5-point total, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Bears can score points — but they struggle on the other end of the court as they rank 302nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They go back on the road where they rank 338th in the nation by allowing their opponents to nail 39.2% of their shots from behind the arc. Northern Colorado allows their opponents to make 39.2% of their shots when away from home resulting in 84.5 Points-Per-Game. They do rank 18th in the nation by making 56.5% of their shots inside the arc — and they have a 48.1% field goal percentage on the road resulting in 81.5 PPG. The Bears have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. Eastern Washington has scored at least 79 points in each of their seven-game winning streak. The Eagles have played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a win against a Big Sky rival — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. They have also played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row against conference foes. They have covered the point spread in nine straight games — and they have then played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Eastern Washington ranks seventh in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.8%. They rank tenth in the nation by making 39.9% of their 3-pointers — and that mark rises to an incredible 54.5% clip behind the arc when playing at home which is the highest mark in the nation for home-court 3-point shooting. The Eagles make 56.8% of their shots at home resulting in 93.8 PPG. Eastern Washington has played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Northern Colorado averages eight made 3s per game — and the Eagles have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams who make eight or more 3s per game. Eastern Washington averages nine made 3s per game — and the Bears have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams who make eight or more 3s per game.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams play at a fast pace. The Eagles rank 61st in the nation by averaging 16.3 seconds per possession — and they rank 76th in the country with 70.1 adjusted possessions per game. Northern Colorado is even quicker as they rank 30th in the nation by averaging 15.7 seconds per possession — and they rank 52nd in the country by averaging 71.0 adjusted possessions per game. The Bears have played 29 of their last 43 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (813) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-24-24 |
Chattanooga v. Wofford OVER 147.5 |
Top |
79-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chattanooga Mocs (695) and the Wofford Terriers (696). THE SITUATION: Chattanooga (12-7) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five after their 81-74 win at East Tennessee State as a pick ‘em on Sunday. Wofford (11-8) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 82-59 loss at UNC-Greensboro as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mocs scored at least 80 points for the eighth time this season with their victory over the weekend. Chattanooga has played 19 of their 27 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games on the road Over the Total when playing for the second time in seven days. This is a game against two teams who love to launch 3s — and both squads average 10 made 3s per game. The Mocs rank third in the nation by taking 50.7% of their shots from behind the arc. They are making 48.2% of their shots in their last five contests. They rank 82nd in the nation by making 35.2% of their 3-pointers away from home — they are scoring 77.2 Points-Per-Game overall on the road. But Chattanooga’s defense falters on the road — they are allowing their opponents to nail 45.4% of their shots away from home resulting in 80.1 PPG which is +9.6 PPG above their season average. The Mocs have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when favored on the road up to six points. They have also played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with the Total set from 145 to 149.5. Wofford has played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total against opponents who make at least 8 3-pointers per game. The Terriers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss on the road to a Southern Conference rival — and they have played 7 straight Overs after a point spread loss. They have played 14 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing 80 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in the last seven days. Wofford ranks 31st in the nation by taking 44.6% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Mocs have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total on the road against teams who average at least 8 or more 3s per game. The Terriers only made 37.7% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games and tied for the lowest shooting performance in their last 14 contests. They return home where they rank 41st in the nation by nailing 40.2% of their 3-pointers. They are nailing 49.2% of their shots at home resulting in 85.7 PPG which is +8.1 PPG above their season average. Wofford has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 8 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Defense is an issue for the Terriers who have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.2% of their shots. They also rank 330th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.9% of their 3-pointers — and their guests are nailing 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: Wofford has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chattanooga Mocs (695) and the Wofford Terriers (696). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-24 |
Kent State +1.5 v. Bowling Green |
Top |
90-84 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (623) plus the point(s) versus the Bowling Green Falcons (624). THE SITUATION: Kent State (9-9) has lost four of their last five games after their 77-71 loss to Akron in a pick ‘em contest on Friday. Bowling Green (14-4) has won four games in a row as well as 12 of their last 13 contests after their 84-79 victory against Western Michigan as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES PLUS THE POINT(S): In head coach Rob Senderoff we trust to right the ship for his team tonight — Kent State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. Under Senderoff’s leadership, the Golden Flashes have won at least 19 games in the last nine non-shortened COVID seasons (and his 2020-21 team that season was 15-8). Kent State won the Mid-American Conference Tournament last season before losing to Indiana in the Big Dance. While the top three scorers from that team moved on, the front court that was the foundation of that team is back. Chris Payton has emerged as one of the best players in the conference with the forward scoring 14.1 Points-Per-Game on 50.3% shooting and 8.1 Rebounds-Per-Game. Jalen Sullinger has moved into the starting lineup this season to score 14.3 PPG while making 39.8% of his 3-pointers. The Golden Flashes lead the MAC by nailing 40.1% of their shots from behind the arc. They should have success from downtown against this Falcons team that ranks 263rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.2% of their 3-pointers — and visiting teams are nailing 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home. Conference opponents are making 38.9% of their 3-pointers against the Falcons. Kent State has lost both of their games that went into overtime this season -- or perhaps their record would be better. They still rank as the fourth-best team in the conference according to the Adjusted Net Efficiency Margin metrics of Ken Pomeroy — and Bowling Green ranks fifth in the MAC according to those numbers. Another power rankings system places Kent State as the 173rd best team in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they rise to 154th in the nation when playing away from home. The Golden Flashes have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road as an underdog getting up to six points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 150s. Bowling Green has scored 78 or more points in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Falcons have overachieved under first-year head coach Todd Simon who they hired away from Southern Utah in the offseason. Injuries have led Simon to rely on essentially a seven-man rotation. They have benefited from an overtime win against Eastern Michigan and a two-point victory against Southern Indiana. Their five victories in conference play have been against opponents who have a combined 11-18 record in the MAC. Bowling Green stays at home where they have a 9-1 record — but they rank just 245th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home as opposed to their 141st rank when playing away from according to those second set of power rankings I consider. The Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to three points. Simon’s offense relies on a fast pace and drawing fouls — they lead the Mid-American Conference in free throw rate. But the Golden Flashes have the third-best opponent free throw rate in the conference. Kent State nails 45.2% of their shots from the field while averaging eight made 3s per game. Bowling Green has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after 15 games into the season against teams who make 45% of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after 15 games into the season against teams who make eight or more 3s per game.
FINAL TAKE: Kent State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Underdog of the Month with the Kent State Golden Flashes (623) plus the point(s) versus the Bowling Green Falcons (624). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-24 |
Tex A&M Commerce v. Lamar -5 |
Top |
65-76 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Lamar Cardinals (306644) minus the points versus the Texas A&M-Commerce Lions (306643). THE SITUATION: Lamar (9-9) looks to snap a two-game losing streak after their 78-77 upset loss at Houston-Christian as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Texas A&M-Commerce (7-10) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 68-52 upset win at Southeast Louisiana on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS THE POINTS: Lamar opened their Southland Conference schedule with three straight victories before losing at Incarnate Word and then Houston-Christian. They allowed the Huskies to make 49.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Cardinals have allowed at least 76 points in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing 75 or more points in three straight games. Now after playing their three games on the road, Lamar returns home where they are 6-1 this season with an average winning margin of +20.0 Points-Per-Game with them scoring 90.9 PPG. The Cardinals should play better on defense tonight since they hold their guests to 40.0% shooting on their home court. Lamar has covered the point spread in all 4 of their boarded games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 boarded home games with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after playing their previous game on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after playing two or more games in a row on the road. Furthermore, Lamar has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing their last two games on the road. And while they did not cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. The Cardinals should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight. They rank 67th in the nation by pulling down 33.1% of their missed shots — and they improve to 23rd in the country by rebounding 37.7% of their missed shots when playing at home. The Lions rank 342nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 34.7% of their missed shots — and when on the road, their opponents rebound 36.7% of their missed shots. Texas A&M-Commerce nailed 45.6% of their shots on Saturday to break their losing streak in what was the best shooting performance in their last five games. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory in conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread this season. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing for the second time on the road in the last three days. Texas A&M-Commerce is just 2-7 on the road this season where they are getting outscored by -18.1 net PPG. They only make 37.1% of their shots away from home resulting in just 57.3 PPG which is -16.2 fewer PPG than their season average. The Lions live-and-die by the 3 — they rank 9th in the nation by taking 48.9% of their shots from behind the arc. But they only make 28.8% of their shots from 3-point range, ranking 338th in the nation — and that mark drops to just 24.6% of their 3-pointers when away from home, ranking 357th in the nation. Texas A&M-Commerce averages 10 mades 3s per game from 30 shot attempts from behind the arc per game — but Lamar usually exceeds point spread expectations when facing teams like this. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams who average at least 8 shots from behind the arc per game — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games against opponents who average at least 21 shots from behind the arc per game.
FINAL TAKE: Lamar has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. 25* CBB Southland Conference Game of the Month with the Lamar Cardinals (306644) minus the points versus the Texas A&M-Commerce Lions (306643). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-24 |
Wagner v. Merrimack -6.5 |
Top |
71-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Merrimack Warriors (306546) minus the points versus the Wagner Seahawks (306545). THE SITUATION: Merrimack (9-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 75-70 upset loss at Central Connecticut State as a 1-point favorite on Monday. Wagner (8-7) has won four of their last five games after a 64-54 victory against Stonehill as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Merrimack has won the Northeast Conference regular season title in two of their four seasons at the Division I level — and they won both the regular season crown and the conference tournament last year. Now eligible to play in the NCAA Tournament, there is an additional excitement around the program. Head coach Joe Gallo has overseen the only program in the NEC to not have a losing record in the last four seasons in conference play. And while the program lost its top three players in the transfer portal to bigger programs, they still have sophomore Jordan Derkack who has emerged into being the leading candidate to win Conference Player of the Year honors. For Gallo, it all starts with the tricky 2-3 zone he deploys to frustrate their opponents. The Warriors rank 44th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.6%. Merrimack also forces turnovers — they rank ninth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.9% of their opponent’s possessions. Gallo had his players' attention this week after they allowed Central Connecticut State to make 47.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Warriors have bounced back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a Northeast Conference rival. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss by six points or less. And in their last 21 games after winning two of their last three games, they have covered the point spread 13 times. They return home to play for just the seventh time this season. They beat UMass-Lowell out of the American East on their home court by six points in a quality win since the River Hawks are projected to compete for their conference title. The Warriors rank 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on their home court where they are undefeated — and they have a 13-game winning streak at home going back to last season. With the addition of 7’0 Jacob O’Connell to this year’s squad, Merrimack is playing better interior defense — they rank 28th in the nation by holding their opponents to 45.0% shooting inside the arc. Wagner is going to struggle to score tonight — they rank 353rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 43.6%. The Seahawks made only 40.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 306th in the nation — and that mark drops to 39.0% when playing away from home, ranking 360th in the nation. They did make 46.8% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two games in a row in conference play by double-digits. Additionally, while they have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after covering the point spread in three of their last four. Wagner has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 6.5-9 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have held their last two opponents to just 54 and 56 points — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 60 points in two or more games in a row. Wagner is vulnerable inside — they allow their opponents to make 51.8% of their shots inside the arc. Led by Derkack, the Warriors make 52.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 120th in the nation. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Game of the Month with the Merrimack Warriors (306546) minus the points versus the Wagner Seahawks (306545). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-18-24 |
Washington +2.5 v. California |
Top |
77-75 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (819) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (820). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-7) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 73-61 upset loss at UCLA as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. California (6-11) has lost four of their last six games after their 80-73 loss at Oregon as an 8-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington laid an egg against a struggling Bruins team. Their 40.4% field goal percentage was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They also allowed UCLA to make 50.0% of their shots which was the second opponent’s field goal percentage they surrendered all season. The Huskies should rebound with a strong effort as they typically do under head coach Mike Hopkins. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss against a Pac-12 rival. Additionally, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road after a straight-up loss to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after failing to cover the point spread twice in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Hopkins hit the transfer portal in the offseason to upgrade the talent on his roster — and he has two former Kentucky players leading this team. Sahyr Wheeler gives him his first pass-first point guard in his tenure at Washington — and Keion Brooks is in contention for Pac-12 Player of the Year. Washington has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 road games as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 150s. California has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Golden Bears return home where they are only 5-4 with an average winning margin of +1.8 Points-Per-Game. Cal has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. The Golden Bears are considered underrated due to four losses by three points or less along with two other losses in overtime — but the Huskies have similar claims that they could easily have a better record. Washington has lost five of their games by five points or less including an overtime loss to San Diego State. They have registered high-profile victories against Gonzaga and Xavier that Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 25th and 26th best teams in the nation according to his net Adjusted Efficiency Margin metrics. All the computer models I follow project the Huskies as a small favorite — so the market may be overvaluing Cal’s close losses.
FINAL TAKE: The Golden Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Pac-12 Underdog of the Month with the Washington Huskies (819) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-17-24 |
Bradley v. Southern Illinois +2.5 |
Top |
70-69 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Southern Illinois Salukis (708) plus the points versus the Bradley Braves (707). THE SITUATION: Southern Illinois (12-5) had their six-game winning streak snapped with a 76-58 loss at home to Drake as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. Bradley (12-5) has won six games in a row after their 77-59 victory as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SALUKIS PLUS THE POINT(S): Southern Illinois might have played their worst game of the season against a good Drake team that is second in the Missouri Valley Conference by ranking 66th in Adjusted Efficiency Margin according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Salukis made only 36.5% of their shots in that game which was the worst shooting effort in their last 11 games. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss at home where they did not score more than 60 points. They only scored 2 points in the first half against Drake — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to score more than 25 points in the first half of their previous game. And by allowing the Bulldogs to nail 56.4% of their shots, Southern Illinois played their worst defensive game of the season. But the Salukis have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home. After losing two All-Conference players from last year’s team that finished 14-6 in conference play, head coach Bryan Mullins gotten this group playing competing once again for a Missouri Valley Conference title with a 4-2 start in conference play. Southern Illinois has a 9-2 record on their home court with an average winning margin of +14.3 net Points-Per-Game. They are making 48.2% of their shots at home while holding their opponents to just 41.4% shooting — so they should play better tonight on both ends of the court. The Salukis have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games at home with the Total set in the 130s. They match up well with the Braves who take 41.4% of their shots from behind the arc (ranking 81st in the nation) — and they average 24 shots from 3-point land per game. Southern Illinois ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to 26.4% shooting from behind the arc — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against teams who average 21 or more shots from 3-point land per game. The Salukis also rank fourth in the MVC in getting to the free throw line — and Bradley ranks 10th in the conference in opponent free throw rate. Additionally, Bradley leads the MVC by pulling down 35.7% of their shots — but Southern Illinois holds their conference opponents to rebounding only 23.2% of their missed shots. The Braves have covered the point spread in four straight games as well as five of their last six boarded games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven boarded games. And while Bradley has not allowed more than 64 points in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 65 points in five or more games in a row. The Braves are also 4-2 in conference play — but they miss center Rienk Mast’s scoring from last year’s team that won the regular season crown. Bradley only makes 45.0% of their shots including 34.9% from behind the arc when playing away from home. The Braves failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games when favored by up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Illinois has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Underdog of the Month with the Southern Illinois Salukis (708) plus the points versus the Bradley Braves (707). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-16-24 |
Nuggets v. 76ers -1.5 |
Top |
121-126 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (570) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (569). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (25-13) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 124-115 victory against Houston as an 8.5-point favorite yesterday. Denver (28-13) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests with their 117-109 victory against Indiana as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Joel Embiid returned to action yesterday after missing the previous three games — and he scored 41 points and added 10 rebounds in 31 minutes of play. Embiid has scored at least 30 points and pulled down at least 10 boards for the 16th straight game. Now Embiid has an opportunity to showcase his talents on TNT tonight — and he usually is very motivated in situations like this. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home after a straight-up victory. They stay at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +10.2 Points-Per-Game. The Sixers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on their home court. Philadelphia is a balanced team that ranks fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and those numbers take into account Embiid missing 11 games due to injury this season. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games against Western Conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when favored. Denver nailed 64.8% of their shots against the Pacers on Sunday which was the best shooting effort for them all season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after making at least 60% of their shots in their last game. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. And in their last 17 games after winning five or six of their last seven contests, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of those games. They go back on the road where they are just 11-9 this season with an average winning margin of just +0.2 PPG. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 220s. Denver allows their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots — and they have been playing loose on the defensive end of the court as of late. The Nuggets’ last five opponents are making 49.2% of their shots resulting in 116.4 PPG which is +5.4 PPG above their season defensive scoring average. The 76ers are undermanned tonight with De’Andre Melton, Robert Covington, and some role players out tonight — and this is why the point spread is as low as it is. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets are an offensive juggernaut that scores 116.2 PPG on 49.8% shooting — but the 76ers usually perform well against these types of teams. Philly has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams who score at least 116 PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 36 games against teams who shoot 48% or better from the field. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month with the Philadelphia 76ers (570) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-24 |
Pepperdine v. San Diego OVER 150.5 |
Top |
83-77 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Wave (793) and the San Diego Toreros (794). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (8-10) snapped their two-game with a 93-78 victory against Pacific as a 12.5-point favorite on Thursday. San Diego (10-8) has lost three games in a row after their 83-63 loss at home to San Francisco as a 10-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wave was never a good defensive team this season — and they are getting crushed on that end of the court now that conference play has started. Pepperdine has allowed at least 78 points in each of their last three games in conference action — and West Coast Conference opponents are nailing 51.5% of their shots resulting in 80.7 Points-Per-Game. The Wave ranks 252nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 333rd in the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 54.2%. Their biggest weakness is defending the perimeter as their opponents are making 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 336th in the nation. Pepperdine has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in their last game — and they have played 32 of their last 49 games Over the Total on the road after allowing 75 or more points in three straight contests. The Wave have also played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home where they scored 85 or more points. Pepperdine can score with points — Michael Ajayi leads the WCC in scoring while Houston Mallet has potential NBA talent. The Wave is making 45.6% of their shots in conference play resulting in a respectable 75.6 PPG. But now they go back on the road where their home hosts make 54.6% of their shots including 36.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 85.3 PPG. Pepperdine has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total on the road. They have also played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total in conference play. San Diego has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a conference rival — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss at home by double-digits. The Toreros have allowed their last three opponents to make 51.7% or more of their shots — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing two straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. San Diego is not a great defensive team either — they rank 169th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and they are perhaps now getting exposed in conference play. In their first three games against West Coast Conference rivals, they are allowing them to make 53.9% of their shots resulting in 88.3 PPG. The Toreros play in high-possession games as well — they rank 41st in the nation with 72.1 adjusted possessions per game. Their opponents only average 16.1 seconds per possession with the ball which is the sixth quickest in the nation. San Diego is scoring 73.4 PPG at home — and they should be able to make 3-pointers against this Waves perimeter defense since they rank 112th in the nation by making 35.1% of their shots from behind the arc. The Toreros have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego won both meetings last season with both games seeing 165 and 181 combined points scored. Pepperdine has played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Wave (793) and the San Diego Toreros (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-23 |
Washington State v. Utah UNDER 144.5 |
Top |
58-80 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (871) and the Utah Utes (872). THE SITUATION: Washington State (9-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 66-61 victory against Boise State as a 2.5-point favorite on December 21st. Utah (9-2) has won six games in a row with their 85-43 win against Bellarmine as a 20.5-point favorite on December 20th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars have played 18 of their last 22 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They play stout defense for head coach Kyle Smith — they are holding their opponents to 37.3% shooting resulting in 62.5 Points-Per-Game. Washington State will slow this game down — they average 17.3 seconds per possession, ranking 179th in Adjusted Pace while their opponents take 18.0 seconds per possession, ranking 302nd in Adjusted Pace. The Cougars rank fifth in the nation in Opponent’s Effective Field Goal Percentage of 42.5% — and they rank in the top-19 in the country in opponent 3-point shooting and 2-point shooting. They also rank 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 23.7% of their missed shots. And their block rate of 15.5% of their opponent’s shot attempts ranks 12th in the country. Washington State has been a bit unlucky with their opponents’ free throws as well — their opponents have made 76.5% of their shots at the charity stripe, ranking 342nd in the nation. The Utes only make 71.3% of their free throws, so the Cougars should get some points back in that area tonight. Overall, Washington State ranks 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rise to 24th in the nation in that metric when playing away from home with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark of 93.8. But while the Cougars rank 89th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they drop to 197th in that category when away from home with a 101.6 efficiency mark. The 67.2 PPG they score away from home is a -10.2 net PPG drop from their overall average. Washington State has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Utah has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They rank 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they drop by -1.6 adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing at home where they rank 56th in the nation. But the Utes are holding their opponents to 37.8% shooting resulting in 63.2 PPG with their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking 38th in the nation — and that ranking improving to 20th in the country with that mark lowering to 89.8. Utah ranks eighth in the nation in Opponent’s Free Throw Rate. The Utes have held their last three opponents to no better than 37.5% shooting — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing three straight opponents to shoot better than 40%.
FINAL TAKE: Utah has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Washington State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (871) and the Utah Utes (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-23 |
Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4.5 |
Top |
116-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (507). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (17-13) has lost two of their last three games after their 106-104 upset loss to Houston as a 7.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Memphis (9-19) has won three games in a row after their 125-119 win at Atlanta as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans only made 46.3% of their shots against the Rockets on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. They should shoot better tonight — the return of Trey Murphy from injury gives the team the outside shooting threat it craved to open up space inside for Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram to drive to the hole. The Pelicans are still making 50.6% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 119.6 Points-Per-Game. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a Southwest Division rival. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games after a loss to a divisional rival — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after a loss at home in their previous contest. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games. Memphis has won all three of their games since Ja Morant completed his 25-game suspension. They nailed 51.5% of their shots against the Hawks on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. But the Grizzlies have not been reliable not reliable on the road relative to point spread expectations with Morant on the court. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games as an underdog -- and that includes them finishing last season on a 5-18 ATS run with Morant as an underdog before losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in the playoffs. They have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 29 road games as an underdog — and 23 of those games go back to last season with Morant given their 4-6 ATS mark as a road dog this season. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 21 road games as an underdog of up to six points after covering the point spread once in their four road games getting up to six points this season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against Southwest Division rivals.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be looking to avenge a 115-113 loss at home to Memphis as an 8-point underdog on December 19th in Morant’s season debut — and the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month with the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-23 |
Mavs v. Suns OVER 237.5 |
Top |
128-114 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 10:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). THE SITUATION: Dallas (17-12) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 144-119 victory against San Antonio as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Phoenix (14-14) has lost four of their last five games after their 120-105 loss at Sacramento as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was just a few years ago when I was grappling with Golden State games on Christmas Day where the Total reached the rarified air of 230 or higher. Now four of the five games today have Totals set at 235 or higher. Some observers think this is a result of the ever-improving skill set of the players. It’s not. More 3-point shooting combined with more teams playing at a faster pace has contributed to the higher-scoring games — but the key ingredient for these big totals remains the lack of effort on defense. The nightcap tonight features two teams who consider defense an afterthought. Dallas ranks 23rd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 50.8% of their shots resulting in 122.2 Points-Per-Game. Led by Luka Doncic who may be enjoying his best season yet in his career, the Mavericks are scoring 119.0 PPG themselves this season. They did hold the woeful Spurs to 44.9% shooting two days ago which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 8 games after a double-digit victory, the Mavericks have played 6 of these games Over the Total. Dallas is dealing with several injuries impacting their depth. Kyrie Irving has been out since December 8th with a foot injury. The team has been without rookie Derrick Lively II as well with an ankle injury — and his absence has taken away their best rim protector. He is listed as questionable to possibly return to action tonight (I like the Over even if he plays, FYI). Now the Mavericks go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road when the Total is set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, Dallas has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. Phoenix only made 44.3% of their shots on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. The Suns have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. And while their loss to the Kings finished far below the 244-point total, they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their previous contest. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Phoenix returns home where they are making 48.7 of their shots resulting in 116.9 PPG. The Suns have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored. Phoenix is dealing with injuries as well. Bradley Beal is once again out with his back issues. Jusuf Nurkic is out for personal reasons as well leaving the team without their best rim protector. As it is, the Suns rank just 17 in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.6% of their shots resulting in 118.4 PPG. Led by Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, this team is not doing much besides putting up scoring points while drastically underachieving their preseason expectations. Phoenix has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas is allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots —and the Suns have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total against teams with opponent field goal percentages of 46% or higher. And while Phoenix has a defensive field goal percentage of 46.3%, the Mavericks have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make 46% or more of their shots. 25* NBA Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-24-23 |
Nevada -6 v. Georgia Tech |
Top |
72-64 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (647) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (648) in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic. THE SITUATION: Nevada (11-1) reached the title game of this holiday tournament with their 88-75 upset win against TCU as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Georgia Tech (8-3) joined them in this title game with a 73-68 upset victory against Hawai’i on their home court as a 2.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played at the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, Hawai’i.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: Nevada is a very experienced team that ranks seventh in the nation in returning Division I experience from their team that won 22 games that lost to Arizona State in a First Four game in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning four of their last five contests. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They did allow the Horned Frogs to make 45.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. TCU was the pre-tournament favorite to win this event. Nevada ranks 31st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Head coach Steve Alford’s team has a high floor given the strong fundamentals that he has instilled into this team. The Wolf Pack ranks 12th in the nation by turning the ball over in 13.6% of their possessions. They also get to the free throw line as they rank seventh in the nation in free throw rate. Nevada has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when playing with only one day or less of rest. Georgia Tech has pulled off three straight upsets in this tournament after beating Penn State and UMass before their victory against the Rainbow Warriors on Friday. For the record, none of those three teams are ranked in the top 100 teams in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Yellow Jackets do have nice wins against Duke and Mississippi State this season — but they have still failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against opponents making at least 45% of their shots and holding their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting. The Wolf Pack are nailing 47.3% of their shots while holding their opponents to 39.0% shooting. First-year head coach Damon Stoudemire is doing a nice job with this team. They have played much better since he started playing Nathan George. After not even playing in the first few games, the freshman is now the team’s starting point guard. But with freshman Baye Ndongu also in the starting lineup, this is a young team that may be particularly susceptible to a letdown. Georgia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a victory by six points or less in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning four or five o their last six games. The Yellow Jackets thrive by crashing the glass — they rank seventh in the nation by forcing turnovers in 37.6% of their missed shots. But getting second chance opportunities will be difficult against Nevada who hold their opponents to rebounding only 25.0% of their missed shots, ranking 50th in the nation. Georgia Tech’s problem is they lack a Plan B to generate points. They are making only 29.0% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 316th in the nation. They only force turnovers in 13.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 352nd in the nation (as if forcing Wolf Pack turnovers was a viable strategy anyway).
FINAL TAKE: Nevada has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games against non-conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when favored. 25* CBB Diamond Head Classic Game of the Year with the Nevada Wolf Pack (647) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-23 |
Knicks v. Nets +1.5 |
Top |
121-102 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (539) plus the points versus the New York Knicks (540). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (13-13) has lost three straight games after their 125-108 upset loss at Utah as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday. New York (15-11) has won two of their last three contests after their 114-109 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINT(S): The Knicks come off an emotional victory against the Lakers which was a personal revenge spot for Julius Randle facing his previous team. They held Los Angeles to just 42.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last nine contests. The team endured challenging traveling circumstances after staying over in Los Angeles Monday night before traveling cross country yesterday. Now they finish their five-game road stand against their cross-town rivals. Consistency has not been a strength of this team that has up-and-down players like R.J. Barrett, Immanuel Quickly, and Randle. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games after a victory by six points or less. New York is playing without Mitchell Robinson who is out another two months with an ankle injury. Not only is Robinson the lynchpin of the Knicks' defense as their primary rim protector, but he also leads the NBA by pulling down 5.3 offensive rebounds per game. New York is thin at center with backup Jericho Sims now also out with an ankle injury. The Knicks are getting outscored by -0.7 net Points-Per-Game while allowing their home hosts to make 48.5% of their missed shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. Brooklyn allowed the Jazz to make 49.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four contests. The Nets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +6.8 PPG. The Nets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on their home court at the Barclays Center. Brooklyn has a +1.1 Adjusted Net Rating this season despite one of the more difficult opening schedules in the league — and they post a +7.7 Adjusted Net Rating when playing at home. After Cam Thomas missed time due to an injury, he has returned to action and leads the team by scoring 24 PPG. Head coach Jacque Vaughn encourages his team to bomb away from 3 — the Nets rank fifth in the NBA by getting 37.9% of their points from behind the arc and they are second in the league by nailing 38.7% of their 3-pointers. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams who are making 36% or more of their 3-pointers. And while New York allows their opponents to shoot 47.8% from the field, Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 46% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Nets have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Underdog of the Month with the Brooklyn Nets (539) plus the points versus the New York Knicks (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-23 |
Lakers v. Spurs OVER 233.5 |
Top |
115-129 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (16-10) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 122-119 victory at San Antonio against the Spurs as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. San Antonio (3-20) has lost 18 games in a row after that setback.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lakers made 53.8% of their shots on Wednesday despite LeBron James taking the night off with his nagging left calf issue. James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable tonight — but I suspect both will play tonight (and I was skeptical about James playing on Wednesday). James and Davis are listed as questionable for most games as a way to soft-play load management. With this game on national television (ESPN) in an opportunity to pad some stats, both stars have incentives to play. Perhaps this game against the lowly Spurs is an opportunity for Davis to get the night off (with James returning to action) — and that only helps our Over play since Davis is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. The Lakers are clicking on offense with an attack that lives in transition and thrives at the rim. Los Angeles is second in the NBA in shot frequency at the rim where they are then making 70.2% of their shots — and they lead the NBA in transition possessions. In their last five games, the Lakers are nailing 50.2% of their shots which results in 121.8 Points-Per-Game. LA has made at least 53.4% of their shots in their last four contests — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in three or more games in a row. They have played 23 of their last 30 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six contests. This is Los Angeles’ third game on the road since Tuesday — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when playing for the third time in their last four games. They stay on the road where they are making 49.4% of their shots which results in 115.1 PPG — but they are allowing their home hosts to make 46.2% of their shots and 117.2 PPG. The Lakers have not engaged with as much urgency lately in games outside the In-Season Tournament on the defensive end of the court lately. Their last five opponents are making 44.1% of their shots from behind the arc -- and they rank 23rd in transition defense during that span. San Antonio has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Spurs allowed the Lakers to score 62 points in the paint — they rank 26th in the league by allowing their opponents to make 67.9% of their shots within four feet. They also are turning the ball over too much as head coach Greg Popovich continues to audition second-year forward Jeremy Sochan as their point guard. San Antonio ranks 26th in the NBA by turning the ball over in 15.9% of their possessions — and those miscues will create more scoring opportunities for the Lakers in transition. The Spurs stay at home where they are making 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc as opposed to their 31.2% shooting from 3-point range when on the road. They raise their shooting percentage by +1.7% when playing at home with a 46.9% mark — and the 114.9 PPG scoring average at home is an improvement of +5.1 points versus their season average. But San Antonio also allowed 122.3 PPG at home which is a +0.9 rise over their season average as well. The Spurs have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 32 of their last 48 home games Over the Total at home as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio has played 30 of their last 48 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their 5 games Over the Total this season against teams winning 60-70% of their games. The Lakers have played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Finally, the Spurs have played 41 of their last 68 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-10-23 |
Michigan v. Iowa OVER 158 |
Top |
90-80 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (855) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (856). THE SITUATION: Michigan (4-5) has lost three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after a 78-75 upset loss at home to Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Iowa (5-4) has lost two games in a row after their 90-65 loss at Iowa State as an 8-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After opening the season by playing good team defense, the play on that end of the court has fallen apart for the Wolverines. After the Hoosiers made 51.7 of their shots against them, Michigan has allowed four of their last six opponents to make at least 50.0% of their shots. Their last five opponents are making 48.0% of their shots which is resulting in 77.2 Points-Per-Game. The Wolverines rank 131st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The weakest link has been their perimeter defense as their opponents are nailing 39.2% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 349th in the nation. Michigan has remained competitive in most of their games because of their balanced offensive attack. They rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency based on their balanced scoring attack — they rank 18th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.7%. They are making 49.1% of their shots including 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc to generate 81.2 PPG. The Wolverines have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. And while this is Michigan’s second game since last Saturday, they have played 28 of their latest 39 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in seven days. Iowa only made 38.6% of their shots against the Cyclones — and that was on the heels of their 38.5% shooting effort at Purdue in their previous game. The Cyclones have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. And while Iowa State has not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. They return home where they are making 51.1% of their shots including 39.2% of their 3-pointers which is resulting in 99.7 PPG. Facing the porous Wolverines' defense may be just what the doctor ordered for this Hawkeyes team that ranks 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But Iowa struggles on the other end of the court where they rank 147th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.7% of their shots which has resulted in those five opponents to average 81.2 PPG. The Hawkeyes have played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total after a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa has played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total in Big Ten play — and Michigan has played 30 of their last 42 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (855) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (856). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-23 |
Suns +1.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
103-106 |
Loss |
-108 |
4 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (561) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (562) in the Quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (12-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 116-109 victory against Memphis as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. Los Angeles (12-9) has won two of their last three games after their 107-97 victory against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINT(S): Phoenix hopes to make a deep run in the NBA playoffs let by their Big Three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal — but Beal has only played in three games this season as he deals with a chronic back issue. Booker has missed nine games as well due to various injuries — and this Suns team is much better when he is available to team up with Durant. Phoenix has a 9-2 record with Booker healthy — they are just 3-6 without him — and they are outscoring their opponents by +6.2 Points-Per-Game when Booker plays. Digging deeper, while the Suns have a +3.1 net Adjusted Efficiency Margin this season, that number jumps to a +11.2 mark when Booker is on the court. When Booker is off the court, they have a -3.2 net Adjusted Efficiency Margin. So Phoenix is a significantly better team when Booker is available and able to pair with Durant. Booker scored 34 points and added 10 rebounds in the victory against the Grizzlies on Saturday. The Suns were whistled for 21 personal fouls while drawing 31 fouls in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after drawing ten or more personal fouls than what they committed in their last game. And while Phoenix has not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. The Suns only have a 4-5 record at home this season — but they have a 7-3 record on the road where they are tightening things up on defense. While Phoenix is allowing their opponents to score 113.2 Points-Per-Game on 46.3% shooting, those numbers drop to 111.6 PPG on 44.7% shooting when they are on the road. The Suns have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Los Angeles held the Rockets to just 40.4% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a point spread loss. There is a narrative that this In-Season Tournament means just a little more to LeBron James as a student of the game who would love to win this inaugural tournament — and this thought is supported by the Lakers leading the NBA with their +74 net point differential in group play of the event. Point differential was one of the tie-breakers to advance to the Quarterfinals — so everyone was incentivized to run up the score. But besides playing the Suns in the group stage, Los Angeles benefited from an easy schedule against Portland, Utah, and Memphis who combine for an 18-40 record with none of those three teams posting a winning percentage above .350. Each player from the winning team in this tournament is awarded a cash prize -- so every Phoenix player has $500,000 reasons to care about this game as well. James is questionable to play tonight with a calf issue — and Gabe Vincent is out with a knee injury.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have beaten the Suns twice this season including their 122-119 upset victory in Phoenix as a 2-point underdog on November 10th in the In-Season Tournament Group Stage — but Booker did not play in either game. Tonight’s game will be the first time that Los Angeles plays this Suns team with both Booker and Durant on the court together. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (561) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-23 |
Raptors +1.5 v. Nets |
Top |
103-115 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (545) plus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (546). THE SITUATION: Toronto (8-9) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 105-102 loss at Cleveland as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Brooklyn (8-8) is on a two-game winning streak after their 118-109 victory against Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto only made 41.6% of their shots against the Browns which was the worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Raptors can struggle to make shots — especially in the half-court — but they should be able to get their offense going against this Nets team that is underachieving with their play on defense. Brooklyn ranks 22nd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.6% of their shots which has resulted in 119.2 Points-Per-Game. Toronto’s size coming from the four forwards in their starting unit helps them get second-chance scoring opportunities — they rank tenth in the league by pulling down 31.0% of their missed shots. The most encouraging development for this team has been with Scottie Barnes in his third season in the league. After struggling with his outside shot in his first two seasons, he is making 37.6% of his 3-pointers this year en route to his 19.0 PPG scoring average. With Fred VanVleet gone in free agency in the offseason, Barnes has stepped up to become the leader of this team — and a front-line of Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Barnes is a formidable front line. Veteran point guard Dennis Schroder has been solid running the offense in VanVleet’s place. Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. Brooklyn continues their six-game home stand with Game Three at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games while being the favorite in their previous two games at home, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as the favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games after winning two of their last three games. The Nets are undermanned right now with Cam Thomas and Ben Simmons both out with injuries along with Dennis Smith, Jr. questionable with a back injury — and that challenges the depth of this team. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 65 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 40 home games with the Total set in the 220s. Furthermore, the Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games against fellow Atlantic Division opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto gets to play the role of the spoiler with Brooklyn needing the win to keep their hopes alive of advancing to the Quarterfinals of this In-Season Tournament — Brooklyn advances with a win along with either a Boston loss or if their net point differential is better than the Celtics (if they beat Chicago tonight). The Nets tend to live and die by the 3-point shot — they average 16 made 3s per game while nailing 39.2 % of these shots from behind the arc, ranking third in the league. But the Raptors have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games against teams who average 14 or more made 3s per game. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month with the Toronto Raptors (545) plus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-23 |
Heat v. Knicks -5 |
Top |
98-100 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (562) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (561). THE SITUATION: New York (8-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 117-100 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday. Miami (10-5) won for the ninth time in their last ten games with their 122-96 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York only made 34.8% of their shots against the Timberwolves in what was tied for the lowest shooting percentage for them all season. That was an outlier effort as the Knicks. Over his last five games, Julius Randle has rebounded from a slow start by scoring 23.6 Points-Per-Game while adding 9.2 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.0 Assists-Per-Game. Mitchell Robinson leads the NBA by pulling down 6.1 offensive RPG. New York is nailing 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Heat are allowing their opponents to make 38.2% of their 3-pointers. The Knicks should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have outrebounded their last four opponents by at least +6.0 RPG — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after outrebounding four straight opponents by +5.0 or RPG. And while the Knicks had covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home where they have covered 3 of their last 4 contests. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing their last three games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing their last four games on the road. Miami made 52.3% of their shots on Wednesday which was their highest field goal percentage in their last nine contests. The Heat have covered the point spread in two straight games as a favorite but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row as a favorite. Their game with the Cavaliers cruised Over the 211-point Total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Miami has not allowed more than 102 points in three straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They are still allowing their opponents to make 47.1 of their shots this season — and the Knicks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. The Heat have been getting by without Tyler Herro — but they have been fortunate to play a softer schedule lately which has included games against Chicago (twice), Brooklyn, Charlotte, San Antonio, and Atlanta. Duncan Robinson has stepped in Herro’s absence by scoring 20 PPG in those last six games while making 49% of his 3-pointers on 8.5 attempts per game — but he is out for this game with a thumb injury which leaves Miami light on outside shooting with Herro still out as well.
FINAL TAKE: This is New York’s first opportunity to play the Heat since losing to them in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in the playoffs last spring. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month is with the New York Knicks (562) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-23 |
Magic v. Nets UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
104-124 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (569) and the Brooklyn Nets (570). THE SITUATION: Orlando (5-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 112-97 upset victory at home against Milwaukee as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Brooklyn (5-5) has won two of their last three games after their 102-94 win against Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic are playing outstanding defense after holding the Bucks to just 97 points. After ranking sixth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last 57 games last season, they currently rank tied for second in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 105.8. With two 6’10 big men in their starting rotation Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Orlando has size that makes it difficult on their opponents. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread win. The Magic have covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Orlando only ranks 21st in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with this roster probably needing more scoring. Injuries will not help their cause to night with point guard Markelle Fultz and forward Wendall Carter, Jr. out tonight — and shooting guard Gary Harris is questionable with a groin injury. He is the team’s best shooter who nailed 43% of his shots from behind the arc last year. The Magic are making only 45.0% of their shots on the road which is resulting in only 108.2 Points-Per-Game away from home. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has played 30 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total at home after a win at home. The Nets are beginning to play better defense as they have held their last three opponents to no higher than a 43.6% shooting percentage after holding the Wizards to 37.5% shooting. Not having center Nic Claxton early on held the play of their defense back. In the two games he has played, the Nets are allowing just over 100 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. Cam Johnson is another good defender for them who missed seven games in a row before getting back on the court for their last two contests. Brooklyn has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to 105 or fewer points — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where both teams did not score more than 105 points. And while the Nets have played three straight Unders, they have then played 18 of their las 27 games Under the Total after playing three straight Unders. Brooklyn will miss Cam Thomas tonight who is out with a left ankle injury. He is scoring 26.9 Points-Per-Game coming off the bench but has missed the last two games. Ben Simmons will also miss his fourth straight game with a hip injury — and while he does not score many points, he contributes with assists and rebounds on the offensive end of the court. In their last five games, they are making only 42.9% of their shots which is generating only 109.6 PPG — but they are holding their last five opponents to 43.4 shooting. The Nets have played 23 of their last 32 home games when favored by up to six points — and they have played 20 of their last 31 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when the game is at the Barclays Center. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (569) and the Brooklyn Nets (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-23 |
Hornets +3 v. Wizards |
Top |
124-117 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (507) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (508). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (2-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 132-116 upset loss to Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Washington (2-5) snapped a four-game losing streak with that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hornets should rebound with a strong effort in this immediate rematch. Charlotte has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss to a Southeast Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against a divisional opponent. The Hornets are undermanned with Terry Rozier out with a groin injury and Mikhail Bridges serving a ten-game suspension (at least). Charlotte is struggling on defense with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency that ranks 28th in the NBA. They have allowed 124 or more points in four straight games — and their last five opponents have made at least 47.3% of their shots against them. But the personality of this team under head coach Steve Clifford is to tighten things up after stretches like this. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 120 or more points in four straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after allowing their last three opponents to make 47% or more of their shots, 14 of their last 20 games after allowing their last four opponents to shoot 47% or better, and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing five straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots. Despite the loss of Rozier and Bridges, Carolina has been effective on offense. They have made 50.7% of their shots in their last five games. On the road, they are making 50.9% of their shots which is generating 120.7 Points-Per-Game. Washington is perhaps Suspect Number One to take nights off this season. They have trailed by 25 or more points in all five of their losses this season. Their defense has been even worse than the Hornets — they rank 29th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their opponents are making 51.7% of their shots which is resulting in 126.9 PPG — and their last five opponents are making 53.4% of their shots as they average 127.8 PPG. They have allowed five straight opponents — and six of their seven opponents — to make at least 50% of their shots. They have surrendered 148 or more points twice already. As it is, Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win by 15 or more points as an underdog. They took a 65-46 lead going into halftime on Wednesday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after owning a 15 or more point lead at halftime of their last contest. Given their defense, they have played five straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing five or more Overs in a row. Jordan Poole was their big addition in the offseason — but he has been erratic by shooting only 41.5% of his shots with a meager 31.9% of his shots behind the arc for a 17.4 PPG scoring average. The Wizards return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games at home with the Total set at 230 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss against their opponent. 25* NBA Southeast Division Underdog of the Month with the Charlotte Hornets (507) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-08-23 |
Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 216 |
Top |
101-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 134-116 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Monday. Minnesota (4-2) has won four of their last five games after their 114-109 upset loss against Boston as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans played their worst defensive game of the season after allowing the Nuggets to make 53.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent's field goal percentage against them all season. New Orleans has become a very good defensive team under head coach Willie Green — they ranked sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last season. That loss to the defending NBA champions came on the heels of a 123-105 loss to Atlanta on Saturday. New Orleans has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing two in a row by ten or more points. The Pelicans are dealing with several injuries to begin the season — and it gets even worse tonight. C.J. McCollum is dealing with a collapsed lung so he will not take the court. Herbert Jones is questionable with a sore right leg. And, of course, Zion Williamson is taking the game off for personal reasons — leaving Brandon Ingram as the primary scorer against the Timberwolves. New Orleans is a potent scoring team when teams have to address both Williamson and Ingram on the court together — especially with McCollum running the point. But this team lacks outside shooting to open up space for players to drive the lane — the torn meniscus injury of Trey Murphy III has impacted the efficiency of their offense. The Pelicans ranks tied for 22nd place with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of just 108.4 this season. They did make 50% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort for them this season — but that was with Williamson on the court. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 43 of their last 69 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Minnesota followed up their handing Denver their first loss of the season by doing the same thing to the Celtics on Monday in a game where they nailed 51.8% of their shots — their second-best shooting effort of the season. The Timberwolves have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row. And while that game with the Nuggets finished Over the Total, they have then played 18 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Minnesota is playing outstanding defense — they lead the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 100.7. After holding the explosive Denver scoring attack to just 39.1% of their shots, the Timberwolves have limited five of their six opponents to no higher than 40.2% shooting. The great potential of this team on the defensive end of the court was demonstrated last year despite Karl-Anthony Towns being limited to just 29 games due to injury. The T-Wolves would have led the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency if the numbers they generated with Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, and Towns on the court together were extended to the entire season. On their home court, Minnesota has held their opponents to 39.3% shooting which has resulted in their guests scoring only 95.7 Points-Per-Game. The Timberwolves have played 30 of their last 48 home games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when hosting the Pelicans. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-23 |
Mavs v. Nuggets -6 |
Top |
114-125 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573). THE SITUATION: Denver (4-1) lost their first game of the season with a 110-89 upset loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Dallas (4-0) is unbeaten to start the season after their 114-105 win against Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: If the financial incentives for this In-Season Tournament that begins tonight were not enough to motivate the defending champions, the Mavericks should have Denver’s full attention tonight after they played their worst game of the season on Wednesday after a Timberwolves team coming off an embarrassing loss themselves. The Nuggets only made 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort of their season. And while Minnesota made a modest 45.8% of their shots, that was still the highest shooting percentage that Denver has allowed all season. The Nuggets have been very focused early on this season — three of their four victories have been by eight or more points. They rank second in the league in Net Adjusted Efficiency. The biggest concern for this team coming into this season was the play of their bench after losing Bruce Brown and Jeff Green in the offseason. Christian Braun, Reggie Jackson, and Peyton Watson have played well as the core of their second unit. Denver should play great tonight as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road by 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss by double-digits. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after winning two of their last three games. Dallas allowed the Bulls to make 47.2% of their shots which was actually the second-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Mavericks are allowing their opponents to make 48.3% of their shots including 38.5% of their shots from behind the arc. Defense was one of the biggest questions for this team after they ranked 25th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Kudos to this team for starting the season undefeated — and a slimmed-down Luka Doncic has been spectacular so far. Kyrie Irving has not yet played this season due to a left ankle sprain — and he is questionable to play tonight. I suspect Irving plays — but the Mavericks ranked 27th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after acquiring Irving at the trade deadline which is not a surprise since he is not known for his defensive prowess. The Doncic/Irving duo was not successful last year — Dallas was only 5-11 in their 16 games when they played together down the stretch as they dropped from the fourth seed in the Western Conference to the 11th seed. It will still be a work in progress for those two superstars to mesh together on the offensive end of the court. The Mavericks lost some important role players from last year as well with Christian Wood and Reggie Bullock leaving the team in free agency. Dallas is getting nice contributions from rookie center Derrick Lively, Jr. — but is he ready (and big enough) to slow down Nikola Jokic? Doncic and Irving are both liabilities on defense. Furthermore, Dallas has had an easy opening schedule with games against San Antonio, Brooklyn, the mess that is Memphis, and the Bulls. As it is, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a win at home. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning four or more games in a row.
FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks are making 41.0% of their shots from behind the arc — but Denver has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games against teams making 36% or more of their shots from 3-point range. The Nuggets have also covered the point spread in 41 of their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-23 |
Raptors v. Bulls -2 |
Top |
103-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (544) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (543). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-1) lost their opening game of the season in a 124-104 upset loss at home against Oklahoma City as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Toronto (1-0) comes off a 97-94 win against Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago was sluggish with their shooting on Wednesday as they only made 41.9% of their shots. The Bulls can struggle with their shooting — but allowing the Thunder to make 54.9% of their shots was a surprise after they finished fifth in the NBA last season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Look for Chicago to play much better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 10 games after a loss at home by ten or more points. The Bulls lost in the Play-In Tournament to Miami after finishing the regular season with a 40-42 record — but their net point differential projected them to have 44 victories which was more in line with their 46 wins for the 2021-22 season. The organization returned their top eight players in terms of minutes played. While they will not have the services of Lonzo Ball this season as he recovers from his chronic knee injuries, the team still has a very respectable trio in Zack LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic that forms the core of the team. Chicago has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 49 games at home when favored by up to six points. Toronto only made 40% of their shots on Wednesday — but they benefited from the Timberwolves only making 34% of their shots. But the Raptors got out-rebounded by a 62-47 margin to Minnesota — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after getting out-rebounded by 15 or more boards in their last game. Additionally, Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after allowing no more than 100 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. The Raptors entered a new era in the offseason after firing head coach Nick Nurse and then not resigning point guard Fred VanVleet — two key pieces in their recent NBA championship. Dennis Schroder was signed as a free agent from the Los Angeles Lakers to run the offense — but he is a downgrade from VanVleet. This is a team that ranked 26th in the league by assisting on only 57% of their made field goals — and VanVleet was their leading assist man. Toronto also ranked 28th in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. They were just 14-27 on the road last season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games on the road after playing a game that finished Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago beat the Raptors in the Play-In Tournament last season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against Toronto. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Chicago Bulls (544) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (543). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-23 |
Heat +9 v. Nuggets |
Top |
89-94 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (521) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (522) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (58-48) has lost six of their last eight games after their 108-95 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Denver (68-33) has won nine of their last ten games while taking a 3-1 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: After losing both games at home to the Nuggets, things are dire for Miami to rally and win this series. But they should be a tough out. I think the power rankings used to evaluate the Heat are off a bit since they are primarily relying on their regular season numbers where they experienced outlier shooting numbers from behind the arc. After ranking 27th in the league by only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, that mark has improved to a 38.8% shooting percentage which leads all teams in the postseason. When Miami makes their 3s, they usually win. When they don’t, they are in trouble. In Game Four, the Heat only made 8 of 25 shots (32%) from behind the arc — and that was after only converting 11 of their 35 shots (31%) in Game Three. But the last time they played at Ball Arena last Sunday, they nailed 17 of their 35 shots (48.6%) from 3-point land. There are a couple of dynamics when the series is 3-1. For starters, the pressure drops for the team who is trailing since the deficit seems almost insurmountable. Don’t be surprised if Miami breaks out of the shooting slump they experienced in Miami. The Heat have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 13 games on the road after losing three of their last four games. They have perhaps been more effective when playing on the road in the postseason where they have been nailing 40.3% of their 3-pointers. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points. The other thing about 3-1 leads is that they tend to compel the leader to take their foot off the accelerator — especially when that team has two of the remaining three games scheduled on their home court. Denver has been great all season — but one of the flaws of this group is their tendency to get complacent. Remember the 13-2 run that Miami went on to begin the fourth quarter of Game Two? The Heat went on a big run to start the fourth quarter in Game Four — but the Nuggets were able to push back even with Nikola Jokic sitting on the bench with five fouls. That resiliency probably won them the NBA Championship — but it will not help them avoid thinking they can simply flip the switch when they need to with the luxury of being back on their home court for Game Five. Denver won both games in Miami by 13 and 15 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games on the road by 10 or more points. And while the Nuggets have covered the point spread in five of their last six contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in five or six in their last seven games.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when motivated to avenge two straight losses by ten or more points to their opponent. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (521) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-09-23 |
Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
108-95 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (67-33) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-94 victory on the road against the Heat as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Miami (58-47) has lost five of their last seven games to fall behind in this series by a 2-1 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Michael Malone had his team’s attention after their upset loss at home in Game Two — and he got a much better effort on defense in Game Three. Denver limited the Heat to only 25 uncontested shots from beyond the arc after giving 30 uncontested 3-pointers in both Game One and Game Two. The Nuggets’ defense has been underrated for much of the season — especially when they are dialed in which they should continue to be tonight. They are holding Miami to just 41% shooting in this series — and the Heat’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 111.1 in this series is far below the 118.3 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency they posted against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while Denver has made at least 50.2% of their shots in each game in this series, they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. This is one of the rare games in the NBA Finals where the teams only get one day between games — and the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Miami has played 4 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest. The Heat need to slow the pace of play down — their Game Two victory was the only game in this series that had less than 90 possessions. Look for Hayward Highsmith to play more tonight to help with size and the physicality that Erik Spoelstra indicated his team lacked on Wednesday after they got outrebounded by a 58 to 33 margin. Denver pulled down 36.1% of their missed shots — so Miami needs to grab more defensive rebounds. But Highsmith is a liability on offense as he is just a career 33% shooter from behind the arc. The Heat have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a playoff loss in the last two postseasons. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points. Furthermore, Miami has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. The Heat have also played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. The Heat have also played 5 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 20 or more rebounds in their last contest. 25* NBA Friday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-23 |
Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 215.5 |
Top |
109-94 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (66-33) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 111-108 upset loss at home against the Heat as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (58-46) has won two of their last three games while evening this series at 1-1.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets lost Game Two despite making 52.0% of their shots from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But it is the play on defense that garnered most of head coach Michael Malone who described his team’s effort on Sunday as the “least disciplined” game that they played in the postseason. Miami’s 48.7% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage that Denver allowed in their last five games. The Nuggets made 50.4% of their shots in Game One on Thursday — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Despite these good shooting numbers, the Heat are frustrating Denver with the various zone defense looks. In the 37 possessions in this series when Miami has deployed a zone, the Nuggets have scored only 39 points. For comparison's sake, while Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 118.8 when playing at home in the postseason, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plummeted to just 105.4 in their two games at home against the Heat when playing against this zone defense. The Heat are also implementing a 21st-century version of the Jordan Rules against Nikola Jokic — the defensive scheme used by the Detroit Pistons to stymie the Michael Jordan Bulls’ teams. The idea is that the superstar is going to get his points no matter what — but if the star’s teammates are not contributing, then the efforts of the superstar alone will not be enough to win. Head coach Erik Spoelstra went big in Game Two by reinserting Kevin Love into the starting lineup to defend Aaron Gordon. This move allows Jimmy Butler to defend Jamal Murray in an attempt to “cut the head off the snake” in the words of Steve Kerr when analyzing Game Two. Jokic scored 41 points in Game Two — but he only assisted on four other baskets on 11 potential assists. In Game One, Jokic had 14 assists on 17 potential assists. Now the Nuggets go on the road where their scoring drops by 2.7 Points-Per-Game versus their season average. While Denver knows that they need their supporting cast to shoot more and get into a better rhythm, they are more comfortable scoring when playing at home. Miami has also been successful in slowing the pace that Denver prefers to play at. This series is averaging 89.75 adjusted possessions per game with the Nuggets not getting out in transition as much — a big drop from the 96.33 adjusted possessions per game that they were averaging in their first three playoff series this postseason. Miami has played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning their previous game by three points or less. They return home to play for the first time since May 27th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after being on the road for seven or more days. The Heat have also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to three points. Miami has an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.7 when playing at home in these playoffs — as compared to their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 115.6 on the road this postseason. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games in the NBA Finals Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in a tied series. Denver has played 13 of their last 19 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-04-23 |
Heat v. Nuggets OVER 214.5 |
Top |
111-108 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-46) looks to rebound from their 104-93 loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 9-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (66-32) has won seven games in a row while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams should shoot better — especially from 3-point range. The Heat were ice cold in the first half on Thursday as they missed 13 of their last 17 shots from behind the arc while going into halftime with just 22 points. Miami was sluggish. We can blame their struggles in their adjustment to the high altitude in Denver. We can blame the team’s decision to sacrifice a good night’s sleep on Monday after they won their Game Seven in Boston against the Celtics. The conventional wisdom is that players recover faster if they stay over to get a good night’s sleep rather than get on an airplane and arrive in a new city that evening. But the decision sets up Miami better for Game Two since it provided them another ten hours in the altitude to help their acclimation. Sunday night’s game will be the team’s sixth day in Denver — so they should be fine. The Heat shot better in the second half — they made 15 of their 22 shots (68%) from 3-point range. While it may be too much to ask for Miami to make 39.0% of their 3-pointers in Game Two as they did in getting through the Eastern Conference side of the playoff bracket, they should be more effective than their 19 of 39 shooting (33%) from behind the arc on Thursday. And the Heat will be fully committed to being more aggressive in attacking the rim rather than settling for midrange jump shots — they only attempted two free throws as a team in Game One. Miami has played 6 straight second games in a playoff series Over the Total. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days' rest. The Heat have now played five straight Unders while not giving up more than 104 points in three straight games — but this situation sets up to be a higher-scoring contest. Miami have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Heat have played 41 of their last 64 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing four or more Unders in a row. Miami has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Denver left plenty of points on the table themselves in Game One despite making 50.6% of their shots. They only scored 45 points in the second half while cruising to the victory. They only made 8 of their 27 shots (30%) from behind the arc. The Nuggets make 39.1% of their 3-pointers when playing at home in their Ball Arena. Denver has a significant size edge against the Heat — and it seems like they can take advantage of this whenever they please to do so. They opened Game One by scoring 18 of their first 24 points inside the paint. Aaron Gordon scored 12 points in the first quarter dominating over the smaller Gabe Vincent guarding him. Nikola Jokic only took one shot in the first quarter — but he assisted on six buckets. Denver went into the fourth quarter with a 21-point lead with Jokic scoring or assisting on 69 of their 84 points. In the end, Jokic scored 27 points on just 12 shots from the field. The Nuggets did not really need to lean on the Joker in Game One — but it does not look like Miami has an answer for him when Denver needs a basket. Denver is still rested after getting a ten-day break after completing their four-game sweep with the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the third time in ten days. Furthermore, Denver has played 33 of their last 52 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 13 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has lost all three of their games with the Nuggets this season — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total when playing with double revenge and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-23 |
Heat v. Celtics UNDER 204.5 |
Top |
103-84 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 45 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-45) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 104-103 loss at home to the Heat as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Boston (68-33) hosts this Game Seven after rallying from their 3-0 series deficit.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The oddsmakers have lowered the Total for this final contest by six points to account for the historical Game Seven slide in points scored. Even after that, the evidence is strong that this game will finish Under the Total. There were a combined 63 free throw attempts taken in Game Six — but that number should be lower tonight with the referees not wanting to decide the game by unnecessarily placing a key player into foul trouble. Miami only made 35.5% of their shots on Saturday — but that number was still propped up by them naming 14 of their 30 shots (47%) from behind the arc. While they should make more than 36% of their shots tonight, they may not reach their effective field goal percentage of 50.5% from Game Six given the likely regression in 3-point shooting. Jimmy Butler seems slowed by a bad ankle. After scoring 35 and 27 points in Games One and Two, he has only averaged 20.8 Points-Per-Game on 37% shooting in the last four games in this series. The Heat did get Gabe Vincent back on Saturday after he missed Game Five with his twisted ankle, but he missed 9 of 12 shots from inside the arc while showing little lift with his feet. Bam Adebayo has not scored more than 17 points since Game Two while averaging just 12.5 PPG after scoring 21 PPG in the first two games of this series. Kyle Lowry has gone MIA with just 27 combined points since halftime of Game Two. Miami has played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in potential closeout playoff games. Boston only made 7 of their 35 shots (20%) of their 3-pointers on Saturday — but they did nail 27 of their 43 shots (62.8%) from inside the arc. So, like Miami, while the Celtics should make more 3s tonight, they may very well underperform their effective field goal percentage of 52.6% in that game. Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the last three games facing the brink of elimination. They have held the Heat to just 43.0% shooting in the last three games which has resulted in only 99.7 PPG. The Celtics have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they did not cover the point spread. They have also played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Boston has played 10 straight Unders in potential elimination games including all five this postseason. The Celtics have also played 8 of their last 11 Game Sevens Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The tempo of this series has slowed dramatically. The first four games of this series averaged 96.5 adjusted possessions per game with Game Four seeing 94.3 adjusted possessions per game. Games Five and Six have then averaged just 88.8 adjusted possessions per game with Game Five seeing 84.4 adjusted possessions and Game Six totaling 89.4 adjusted possessions. With these teams tiring and more banged up than they were a week ago, expect another slow game with shaky shooting from both sides. 25* NBA Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-27-23 |
Celtics v. Heat UNDER 211.5 |
Top |
104-103 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (67-33) extended this series at least for another game with their 110-97 victory as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. Miami (56-44) still holds a 3-2 series lead.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite both teams shooting over 50% from the field, Game Five finished Under the Total. The tempo of this series is slowing. In victory, the Celtics only took 79 shots which were tied for their series low in Game Two — and they scored only 105 points in that game after making 47% of their shots. Boston made 16 of their 39 shots from behind the arc for a 41% shooting percentage. After shooting under 35% from 3-point range in Games One through Three, the Celtics have nailed more than 40% of their 3-pointers in the last two games. Look for the clip to drop tonight given the pressure of a Game Six — and Boston makes 37.6% of their 3-pointers on the road this season. The Celtics have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after winning two games in a row. Additionally, Boston has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games on the road Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 33 of their last 52 road games Under the Total when favored by up to three points. Miami is finding it difficult to score since Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the face of potential elimination. The Heat have only attempted 78 shots in each of their last two games after averaging 86 shots per game in the first three games of this series with at least 81 shots in each of their three victories — so their tempo has slowed. The Celtics are doing a better job of moving Miami off the 3-point line as they have made only 17 of their 55 shots from behind the arc (31%) in the last two games after nailing 47 of 93 of their 3-pointers (51%) in the first three games of this series. Boston is also not fouling as much. After getting to the free throw line at least 19 times in the first four games of the series, the Heat only had 10 free throw attempts on Thursday. Miami scored only 97 points in Game Five despite making 51.3% of their shots. The Heat have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. After Miami has allowed the Celtics to shoot 51.2% and 50.6% from the field in the last two games, the Heat should increase their defensive intensity in this critical Game Six.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-25-23 |
Heat +8.5 v. Celtics |
Top |
97-110 |
Loss |
-112 |
23 h 19 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (549) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (550) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-43) looks to bounce back from their 116-99 upset loss at home to the Celtics as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (66-33) snapped their three-game losing streak to stave off elimination.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Celtics played with professional pride on Tuesday after their embarrassing 26-point loss in Miami on Sunday. They made 51.2% of their shots in Game Three which was the best shooting effort in their last three games — and they nailed 18 of their 45 shots (40%) from behind the arc which was their best 3-point shooting mark in this series. But can Boston continue this effective shooting back at home? They were only making 28.3% of their 3-pointers in this series before Game Four. Frankly, this team simply seems too dependent on the 3-point shot — and teams that live and die by the 3 are usually inconsistent. And the fundamental problems with this team regarding their relationship with head coach Joe Mazzulla — the last-minute replacement for Ime Udoka who was suspended for his off-the-court shenanigans. Boston still looks broken despite the momentary display of life. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing their last two games on the road. Boston has also been unreliable when playing at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after getting upset in the first two games of this series. They have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games at home with the Total set in the 210s including six of those eight circumstances this season. The Celtics have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 Game Fives in a series. Miami only made 8 of their 25 shots (25%) from behind the arc while settling for a 43.6% shooting percentage which was the worst offensive effort in this series. But the Heat have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Expect a more aggressive effort from Bam Adebayo who has only scored 11.5 Points-Per-Game on six shots per game after averaging 15 shots per game in the first two games in this series. On the road, the Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Miami has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 playoff games when leading in the series.
FINAL TAKE: The books still have Boston as an 8-point home favorite which is the range they were in for Games One and Two. Frankly and in hindsight, that number seems flawed based on an overreliance on the Heat’s regular season numbers before they (somehow) flipped the switch and started making their 3s. Gabe Vincent’s rolled ankle late in Game Four worries me — he did come back and play on Tuesday but is listed as questionable for Game Five (UPDATE: Vincent is out tonight — but this is still a play. It’s a Jimmy Butler night). Ultimately, I think this Heat team has too much heart and team unity to get blown out again. Perhaps Boston extends this series to a sixth game, but this should be a close game if they do — and Miami has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (549) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-23-23 |
Celtics v. Heat UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
116-99 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 31 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-33) has lost five of their last seven games after their 128-102 upset loss on the road against the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (56-42) has won 10 of their last 12 games while taking a 3-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics embarrassed themselves (and everyone backing them as a road favorite in that contest) with that 26-point loss in a must-win game for them on Sunday. They allowed the Heat to nail 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 60 games. It looks like the team quit on rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla — but they should play much harder tonight after Game Three’s humiliation. Boston has played 7 straight Unders when facing elimination in a playoff series. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Additionally, the Celtics have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of six points or less. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Miami was on fire by nailing 19 of their 35 shots (54%) from behind the arc as they continued a miraculous turnaround with their long-range shooting after only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. The Heat made 56.8% of their shots on Sunday which was the best showing effort in their last 13 games. Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. The Heat dominated Game Three despite getting outrebounded by a 57 to 35 margin. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when holding a 3-0 series lead — and they have played 4 of their last 6 playoff games with the possibility of closing out the series.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-22-23 |
Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 225.5 |
Top |
113-111 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (64-32) has won five games in a row after their 119-108 upset loss as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (52-46) has lost four of their last five games to dig themselves into an 0-3 hole in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers' obvious move tonight is for head coach Darvin Ham to reduce D’Angelo Russell’s playing time since he is scoring only 7 Points-Per-Game in this series while being a sieve on the defensive end of the court. This adjustment will help Los Angeles’ defensive efforts. As it is, the Lakers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total at home when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. Despite the Nuggets making 50% of their shots on Saturday, the Lakers still have the lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 101.6 in the playoffs when playing at home — and fewer minutes for Russell will only help those numbers. Denver has played 36 of their last 62 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Nuggets have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. And in their last 5 games when playing with one day of rest, Denver has played 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Fatigue is becoming an issue for the Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing tons of minutes and the bench shortening due to ineffective players like Russell. While I do not expect the effort for Los Angeles to drop off, they may try to slow the pace down simply to conserve energy for the fourth quarter after giving up a 13-0 run late in the game on Saturday. In the Lakers’ last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, the Under is 12-5-1. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-21-23 |
Celtics -3 v. Heat |
Top |
102-128 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
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At 8:32 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542) in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-32) has lost four of their last six games after a 111-105 upset loss at home as a 10-point favorite on Friday. Miami (55-42) has won nine of their last 11 games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Like a drunken sailor who hates himself, Boston seems determined to keep digging deeper and deeper holes for themselves to then dig out of — but I suspect they know that an 0-3 hole will be all but insurmountable. They had a 12-point lead early in the fourth quarter in Game Two — but squandered that by allowing the Heat to outscore them by a 36-22 margin to give that game away. Miami has a big edge with head coach Erik Spoelstra — and they are the mentally tougher team. But the Celtics do have more ballers who can win any game in this series if they are all playing at their typical levels of competency. On Friday, it was Marcus Smart who disappointed the Boston faithful with just 7 points on 2-of-5 shooting with just four rebounds and three assists. Before that game, Smart had averaged 18.2 Points-Per-Game on 15.2 field goal attempts per game, 5.7 Rebounds-Per-Game, and 7.5 Assists-Per-Game when Boston was trailing in a postseason game over the last two years. Smart should play better tonight — and so too should Jaylen Brown who scored only 16 points after missing 16 of his 23 shots. Jayson Tatum had his A-Game with 34 points — but he needs more help. The Celtics have staved off elimination on the road in the playoffs last season and also this year — so they are up to the challenge. Boston has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after getting upset in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when both those upsets were at home. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after an upset loss at home. Furthermore, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two in a row. Boston has some clunkers at home in these playoffs — but they have won and covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. They are also a decisive 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. Frankly, I was disgusted by Miami’s effort in their opening Play-In Tournament game when we were on them against Atlanta. Fortunately, we have avoided fading them for most of their seven upset wins in this postseason. Mindlessly zig-zagging in the NBA playoffs is a dangerous betting strategy — especially since Joe Public knows about it. But mindlessly fading the zig-saggers is not an approach either. Off two upset wins already in this series, it may be difficult for the Heat to maintain their highest intensity — that is simply human nature. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning three games in a row. They have won all five of their games at home in the postseason — but they were 6-0 at home in the playoffs last year before losing three games in a row at home to these same Celtics. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 home games with the Total set in the 210s.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Miami including those three playoff games last year. They have also covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Year with Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-20-23 |
Nuggets v. Lakers -5.5 |
Top |
119-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 16 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (540) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (539) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (52-45) has lost three of their last four games after their 108-103 loss as a 5.5-point underdog on the road on Thursday. Denver (63-32) has won four straight games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only made 43.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They responded to that effort in Game Two of their series against Golden State by scoring 127 points in a 30-point route at home against the Warriors in Game Three of that series. The Lakers should play their best game of this series tonight with their backs against the wall. They have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss including five straight games in this postseason. Anthony Davis has been inconsistent with his scoring production — but he is likely due for a big effort tonight after only making 4 of his 15 shots from the field on Thursday. LeBron James missed all six of his shots from behind the arc in that game as well. But now Los Angeles returns home where they have won and covered the point spread in all six of their games this postseason. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Back on their home court in these playoffs, Los Angeles is scoring +3.8 more points per 100 possessions off turnovers — and they are allowing -1.7 fewer points per 100 points off turnovers. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Denver outrebounded Los Angeles by a 49-40 margin making it the fourth straight game where they outrebounded their opponent by at least eight boards. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after outrebounding four straight opponents by at least five boards. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after winning two games in a row. Furthermore, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning three games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after winning four games in a row. The Nuggets have yet to find a suitable answer to Lakers’ head coach Darvin Ham’s fourth-quarter adjustment in Game One where he inserted Rui Hachimura in the game to defend Nikola Jokic. Not only is Hachimura a good defender but that move freed up Davis to devote his defensive energy to protecting the rim. Jokic has gone just 9 of 23 from the floor in the last five quarters of this series since Ham made that adjustment. The Nuggets pulled out Game Two because Jamal Murray went supernova in the fourth quarter of that game by scoring 23 points on 6 of 7 shooting including 4 of 5 from behind the arc. Murray had missed 12 of his previous 17 shots in that game. But now Denver goes back on the road where they have lost three of their five games this postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 40 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Los Angeles against the Lakers.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when avenging a same-season loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (540) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-19-23 |
Heat v. Celtics -8.5 |
Top |
111-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (538) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (537) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-31) looks to bounce back from a 123-116 upset loss at home as an 8.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Miami (54-42) has won eight of their last ten games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston head coach Joe Mazzulla has been ridiculed for claiming afterward that his team won three of the four quarters on Wednesday. It was a disastrous third quarter in which the Heat outscored the Celtics by a 46-25 margin that made the difference. But Mazzulla’s point was that his team “let go of the rope” and let up in their intensity and focus on the defensive end of the court. Boston was not as physical as they needed to be and let Miami run wild in transition. The Heat nailed six of their nine shots from behind the arc in the third quarter while pulling down four of their nine missed shots. The Heat was a sizzling 17 of 26 from the field in that decisive start to the second half. But there are good signs for Boston from that game — if they simply tighten things up on defense and play a full 48 minutes tonight. The Celtics posted a 58% effective field goal percentage with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 120.8. They outscored Miami by a 62-40 point margin in the paint. But there is still room for improvement since Boston only made 34.5% of their 3-point attempts while only launching 29 shots from behind the arc. They should take more 3s tonight given their average of 42 shots from 3-point range per game this season — and they are making 39.8% of their 3-pointers in the postseason. Mazzulla will probably not play Robert Williams III as much since he struggled in defending the Heat’s perimeter players — the Celtics had a 145 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when he was on the court in Game One. Miami made 54.1% of their shots which was the Celtics’ worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. Boston should bounce back tonight as they tend to play better when their backs are against the wall. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Boston has covered the point spread in 11 of their 13 games after a loss in the last two postseasons including after four of their five playoff losses this year. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Boston has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 second games in a playoff series, they have covered the point spread 5 times. Miami enjoyed their best shooting mark in their last 11 games with their 54.1% shooting — and they made 16 of their 31 shots (52%) from behind the arc including 57% of their non-corner 3s. The Heat are due a visit from the Regression Gods after posting an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 65.1% despite an expected eFG of 50.8%. Miami’s eFG in this postseason is 54.4%. Miami has won the opening game in all three of their playoff series this year — but they followed that up with a 138-122 loss at Milwaukee and then a 111-105 loss at New York in the second games of both those series. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after a point spread victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. And in their last 26 games after winning two games in a row, they have failed to cover the point spread 18 times.
FINAL TAKE: Boston laid an egg in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals against Miami last season — but they bounced back by blowing out the Heat by a 127-102 score despite being on the road. Home teams in Game Twos coming off a loss in Game One have won 16 straight times in the NBA playoffs — and the seven Game Two winners have an average margin of victory of +17.7 points with six of those winners all being by double-digits. 25* NBA Friday TNT Game of the Year is with the Boston Celtics (538) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-14-23 |
76ers v. Celtics UNDER 203 |
Top |
88-112 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (61-31) saw their two-game winning streak in this series snapped with a 95-86 loss at home to the Celtics as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. Boston (64-30) forced this climactic seventh game of this series with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Thoughtful handicapping of the over/under for this game needs to resolve why the total has dropped more than 10 points than the common 211.5-point number that Game Six closed at. The books typically drop the Total several points in Game Sevens — but the drop for this Game Seven is remarkable from a historical perspective. Something else is going on — especially when the public is hitting the Over for this game. The 76ers shot a season-low 36.1% from the field on Thursday. Was that an outlier effort — or was it a canary in the coal mine and harbinger as to what to expect moving forward in this series? I concluded it is the latter. The Celtics have had plenty of success against the Sixers in the Joel Embiid era. They had won 12 of their 17 games at home against Embiid going into Game Five including all six games in the postseason. But Philadelphia pulled off a 115-103 upset win with them making 50.6% of their shots. Frankly, the Celtics may have been simply overconfident in that game as their defensive effort was laughable in that game. They were embarrassingly bad at times defending the basic 76ers’ pick-and-roll play between James Harden and Joel Embiid. The tape offered head coach Joe Mazzula a great opportunity to seize an attentive audience to get back to fundamentals as to how they want to defend that play. In Game Six, Boston remained focused on defending Embiid after picks and dare Philly’s role players beat them. That defensive approach will continue in Game Seven given the stakes — and the onus will be on these players stepping on the road with the Celtics likely double-teaming Embiid and doing what they can to deny him the ball. It is telling that the 76ers have shot under 40% in their three losses in this series. More evidence that the low-scoring game in Game Six will carry over into Game Seven is that Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing to an Atlantic Division rival. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200s — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. Boston has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after beating an Atlantic Divisional rival in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional opponent. They have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The Celtics have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 6 straight Unders in the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown era when facing potential elimination in the playoffs. The Celtics have also played 7 of their last 10 Game Sevens Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 Game Sevens Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 8 playoff potential close-out games Under the Total including both close-out games this postseason. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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