01-16-21 |
Michigan v. Minnesota +6 |
Top |
57-75 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (645) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (646). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-4) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four after their 86-71 loss at Iowa as an 11.5-point underdog back last Sunday. Michigan (11-0) remained undefeated on Tuesday with their 77-54 thrashing of Wisconsin at home in Ann Arbor as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Badgers on Tuesday but the Wolverines were on fire with a 51.6% field goal percentage in that game. Michigan also held Wisconsin to just a 30.8% field goal percentage which was their best defensive effort of the season. I thought the Wolverines were underrated to begin the season — and I continue to think that second-year head coach Juwan Howard is underappreciated. The Michigan alum is getting every ounce of talent out of his roster — just wait for when the five-star recruits start coming to Ann Arbor next fall. But this is not the most talented group of players in the Big Ten (or the State of Michigan). They have benefited from a soft early schedule where their 82-57 victory against these Golden Gophers at Crisler Arena on January 6th was their highest-profile victory before their win against the Badgers. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in five straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Now Michigan goes on the road for just the third time this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. The Wolverines went to the free-throw line only four times on Tuesday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not attempting more than seven free throws in their last game. Minnesota is 30th in the nation with a free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 41.5%. They average 26 free throw attempts per game — and Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games against teams who average at least 25 free throws per game. The Golden Gophers should respond with a big effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after a point spread loss. The Golden Gophers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss. Minnesota returns home where they are 10-0 with an average winning margin of +14.8 PPG. Not only do the Gophers score 85.5 PPG on their home court but they hold their guests to just a 37.8% field goal percentage — so expect the Wolverines to struggle to make baskets with the unique sightlines at Williams Arena. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home with the Total set in the 145.5 to 149.5 point range. The Gophers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games getting the points — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan is outscoring their opponents by +16.2 PPG — but Minnesota has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +8 PPG. The Golden Gophers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when avenging a loss where they gave up at least 75 points. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (645) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-15-21 |
UAB v. Charlotte UNDER 129.5 |
Top |
61-37 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (839) and the Charlotte 49ers (840). THE SITUATION: UAB (9-1) has won two games in a row with their 62-58 win against Southern Mississippi as a 13-point favorite on Saturday. Charlotte (5-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 75-72 loss to Belmont Abbey in a non-boarded game on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win at home. Additionally, UAB has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total with that game skimming Under 131 total. The Blazers are limiting their opponents to just a 41.1% effective field goal percentage which is third-best in the nation. They are holding their opponents to just 57.0 PPG this season on 36.7% shooting from the field. Now UAB goes on the road for just the second time this season. They made only 39.3% of their shots against Southern Miss. The Blazers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 37 of their last 56 road games Under the Total as a favorite of 6 points or less — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a favorite overall. Charlotte has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss at home. The 49ers stay at home where they are scoring 67.9 PPG on just 44.4% shooting. Charlotte has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The 49ers have also played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Charlotte has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 8 straight games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Expect a lower-scoring game. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (839) and the Charlotte 49ers (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-14-21 |
NC-Greensboro v. Samford OVER 150.5 |
Top |
87-63 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (769) and the Samford Bulldogs (770). THE SITUATION: UNC-Greensboro (6-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 48-45 upset loss to Wofford last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Samford (5-5) has lost two games in a row after their 73-68 loss at UT-Chattanooga as a 4.5-point underdog back on January 6th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs love to push the pace — they rank 9th in the nation with an adjusted tempo rate that produces 74.1 average possessions per game. The 71 possessions in their last game against the Moccasins are the lowest for them in any game all season. Four of their ten games have seen at least 80 possessions for both teams. Samford has played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a loss to a Southern Conference rival — and they have played 18 of their last 21 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games . They are scoring 84.9 PPG while making 48.1% of their shots — and they are allowing their opponents to score 77.7 PPG. They return home where they are making 51.8% of their shots en route to scoring 97.5 PPG. They are allowing their guests to score 76.5 PPG. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total again teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They also have played 26 of their last 35 home games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. UNC-Greensboro has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss to a Southern Conference rival. They made only 34.5% of their shots which was the second-lowest field goal percentage in their last nine games. They also held Wofford to just a 29.6% field goal percentage which was by far their lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. Not only has the Spartans played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 60 points in their last game but they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not scoring at least 50 points in their last game. They go back on the road where they are scoring 79.1 PPG while allowing their opponents to score 71.8 PPG. UNC-Greensboro is middle of the pack in averaging 71 possessions per game — but they are willing to engage with teams that like to play faster. The Spartans have played 8 straight games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. UNC-Greensboro has also played 6 straight road games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total when laying 6.5 to 9 points.
FINAL TAKE: Samford has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the number set in the 150s. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (769) and the Samford Bulldogs (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-21 |
Boise State v. Wyoming OVER 148.5 |
Top |
90-70 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boise State Broncos (689) and the Wyoming Cowboys (690). THE SITUATION: Boise State (10-1) has won ten games in a row with their 83-60 win at Wyoming on Monday as a 7-point favorite. Wyoming (7-3) has lost two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Broncos’ held the Cowboys to just a 38.9% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Boise State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Broncos have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Furthermore, Boise State has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days. The Broncos lead the Mountain West Conference by scoring 81.2 PPG. They have scored at least 80 points in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. In their last three games, Boise State is scoring 86.8 PPG while making 48.4% of their shots. They are also scoring 82.3 PPG in their six games away from home. Wyoming has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Their 38.9% shooting percentage was their second-lowest mark all season. Wyoming has allowed their last five opponents to make 49.8% of their shots which has translated into 80.8 PPG. They stay at home for this rematch where they are making 46.1% of their shots to average 81.7 PPG. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Cowboys’ last 8 home games — and they have played 12 of their last 16 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total as an underdog — and Boise State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a favorite. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boise State Broncos (689) and the Wyoming Cowboys (690). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-21 |
Auburn v. Georgia +2 |
Top |
95-77 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET Wednesday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (682) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (681). THE SITUATION: Georgia (7-3) has their last three games after falling to Arkansas on Saturday by a 99-69 score as a 5.5-point underdog. Auburn (6-6) has lost four games in a row with their 94-90 loss against Alabama on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Bulldogs allowed the Razorbacks to make 52.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Head coach Mike Crean was not happy with the effort of his team in that 30-point loss — so expect a more spirited effort with his team looking to win their first SEC game of the season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 30 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. Georgia returns home where they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after losing at least three games in a row. They are 7-1 in Athens this season with an average winning margin of +13.1 net PPG. Crean’s team should play much better on defense as they limit their guests to just 40.7% shooting and 67.0 PPG. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Georgia should score plenty of easy baskets inside against the Tigers — they are 61st in the nation with a 53.9% shooting percentage inside the arc. Auburn allows their opponents to make 52.3% of their 2-pointers which is 242nd in the country. The Bulldogs also pull down 35.6% of their missed shots which is 20th in the nation. The Tigers have been bet into a small favorite as I write this — the likely logic is that their getting freshman Sharife Cooper eligible is a game-changer for this team. The 6’1 guard scored 26 points while adding 9 assists against the Crimson Tide. Yet the laptops still project the Bulldogs to win this game even with Cooper back in the mix. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They also have failed to cover the point spewed in 6 straight games after allowing at least 85 points. Auburn goes back on the road where they are 2-4 while making only 39.8% of their shots. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games away from home with the Total set in the 155 to 159.5 point range. Auburn has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog including 6 of their last 8 games at home as a dog. The Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB SEC Underdog of the Month with the Georgia Bulldogs (682) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (681). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-08-21 |
Hornets v. Pelicans UNDER 218 |
Top |
118-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (545) and the New Orleans Pelicans (546). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (3-5) snapped a three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 102-94 upset win at Atlanta as a 5.5-point underdog. New Orleans (4-4) has lost two in a row with their 111-110 upset loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday as an 8-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans nailed 49.4% of their shots on Wednesday which was their second-best mark all season. But they also allowed the Thunder to make 46.0% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. First-year head coach Stan Van Gundy was livid with the effort of his team that allowed 27 fast break points. Expect a better effort on defense on getting back to the other end of the court tonight after this team has been upset twice in a row after a narrow 2-point loss to Indiana before their setback to OKC. New Orleans has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after suffering two straight upset losses at home. The Pelicans have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. They also have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Van Gundy has made an immediate impact on the defensive improvement of this team — they are not fouling as much, they are crashing the defensive glass, and they are working harder in defending the perimeter. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower. Charlotte played their best defensive game of the season on Wednesday with them holding the Hawks to just 37.5% shooting. Third-year head coach James Borrego hopes that effort will carry over tonight. The Hornets have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Despite the win, Charlotte is struggling to score baskets. They are making only 42.5% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in only 105.2 PPG. The Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road when playing their fourth game in seven days.
FINAL TAKE: The Hornets have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and New Orleans has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as a favorite. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (545) and the New Orleans Pelicans (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-08-21 |
Arkansas-Little Rock v. UL - Lafayette +3 |
Top |
64-66 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (848) plus the point(s) versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (847). THE SITUATION: UL-Louisiana (7-2) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 71-59 upset loss at home to Texas State as a 2.5-point favorite. Little Rock (6-3) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 75-62 win against UT-Arlington on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINT(S): Lafayette might have played their worst game of the season last Saturday. They made only 34.6% of their shots which was the second-lowest mark all season. They also allowed the Bobcats to hit 60% of their baskets which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have given up this year. The Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing their last opponent to shoot at least 60% from the field. Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a game where they did not shoot better than 38% while allowing their opponent to nail at least 60% of their shots. The Ragin’ Cajuns have also bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after getting upset by double-digits as a home favorite. They stay at home where they are 6-1 with an average winning margin of +6.4 PPG. They hold their opponents to just 40.8% shooting which is resulting in 68.6 PPG. The Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games at home with the Total set in the 150s. Lafayette does a good job of forcing turnovers — their opponents are coughing it up in 20.6% of their possessions which is 81st in the nation. This is a significant area of concern for the Trojans — they are 325th in the nation by turning the ball over in 24.7% of their possessions. Little Rock exposed a vulnerable Mavericks’ defense in their two-game swing last week. They made a whopping 70% of their shots against UT-Arlington in the opener before making 56.1% of their shots on Saturday in what was their best two shooting efforts of the season. And by holding the Mavericks to just 31.8% shooting, the Trojans played their best defensive game of the season. But the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least two straight games in a row at home. And while Little Rock has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after covering their last two games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with five or six days of rest. They go back on the road where they are just 1-3 this season while allowing their opponents to make 46.1% of their shots which is resulting in 77.0 PPG. The Trojans are 19th in the nation by making 39.4% of their 3-pointers — but that mark plummets to a 32.1% clip when playing away from their home court this season. Little Rock has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road with the total in the 150-154.5 point range. To compound matters, the Trojans may be without their best player in Markquis Nowell who is listed as doubtful with an undisclosed issue. He leads the team with a 17.0 PPG average while adding 8.9 Assists-Per-Game and 4.7 Rebounds-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: Little Rock is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and the Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Underdog of the Month with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (848) plus the point(s) versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (847). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-07-21 |
Washington State v. California OVER 127.5 |
Top |
71-60 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (761) and the California Golden Bears (762). THE SITUATION: Washington State (8-1) lost their first game of the season on Saturday in their 86-82 loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point underdog. California (5-6) has lost their last two games with their 73-64 loss at Oregon State on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: There are two unusual circumstances to this situation that make a mathematical projection for the total in question. First, the Golden Bears will be without their top two scorers in Matt Bradley and Grant Anticevich. Bradley played only 13 minutes on Saturday before injuring his ankle that will keep him out tonight. Anticevich is still recovering from an appendectomy from last month. Their absences remove 28.1 PPG combined from their lineup. And they will be playing a Cougars team that is allowing only 60.8 PPG on 34.2% shooting from the field. But Washington State has played a very soft strength of schedule that is largely responsible for those gaudy defensive numbers. Ken Pomeroy’s metrics calculate that the Cougars’ strength of schedule has been the 309th easiest in the nation. The number is in the high-120s — and dropping. I think it is too low for this Pac-12 clash. California has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total when playing their second game in seven days. Losing Bradley and Anticevich is a two-sided coin because Cal also loses their defensive contributions. As it is, the Golden Bears are allowing their Pac-12 opponents to score 74.4 PPG while making 48.7% of their shots in five games. If Washington State approaches those numbers, this game flies Over. They return home where the players asked to make up for the baskets Bradley and Anticevich would be making will feel more comfortable. This team did make 51.2% of the shots against the Beavers. California has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 6 straight home games Over the Total as an underdog getting up to 6 points. Washington State has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six-game. Now they go on the road for the first time all season — and I suspect this will impact their defensive numbers. The Cougars have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games at home. Additionally, Washington State has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of over 60% at home (Cal is 4-1 at home).
FINAL TAKE: I value team trends for two reasons: (1) they can identify a personality of a team regarding how they respond to certain situations and (2) they can expose biases in how the market perceives certain teams. The latter is particularly in play here. The market tends to overestimate the value of the Washington State defense. That means a soft number for us — which is what I think were are experiencing tonight. Cal has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. I think they find enough scoring from their remaining roster to push this game into the 130s. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (761) and the California Golden Bears (762). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-21 |
Wichita State v. Houston UNDER 135.5 |
Top |
63-70 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wichita State Shockers (685) and the Houston Cougars (686). THE SITUATION: Wichita State (6-2) has won five games in a row after their 83-79 upset win at Ole Miss on Saturday as an 8-point underdog. Houston (8-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season at Tulsa by defeating SMU on the road on Sunday by a 74-60 score as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Shockers made 9 of their 20 shots from the behind the arc on Saturday against the Rebels despite going into that game with a 33% shooting percentage from downtown. Expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance tonight — especially against this Cougars team that is 13th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 24.5% shooting from 3-point land. Wichita State made 52% of their shots in that game in what was their best offensive performance of the season. But Wichita State has then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Shockers have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win on the road. And while Wichita State has scored at least 81 points in three straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last two games. The Shockers allowed Mississippi to make 41.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they allowed in their last four games. Wichita State holds their opponents to 38.9% shooting — and their last five opponents are shooting just 36.0%. Now they go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Shockers have also played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 135 to 139.5 range. Houston has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road. The Cougars made 39.1% of their shots which was actually their best shooting mark in their last three games. Houston has only had preseason American Athletic Conference Player of the Year for four games this season — and now Caleb Mills has decided to transfer. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is now, more than ever, defined by their play on defense. They are seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank seventh in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.0%. They hold their opponents to only 55.0 PPG on their home court on 36.2% shooting. The Under is 21-5-1 in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Houston has also played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Cougars have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wichita State Shockers (685) and the Houston Cougars (686). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-21 |
St. John's v. Xavier -6.5 |
Top |
61-69 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Xavier (688) minus the points versus the St. John’s (687). THE SITUATION: Xavier (8-2) has lost their last two games after their 85-68 upset loss as a 3-point favorite last Wednesday. St. John’s (6-4) snapped a three-game losing streak back on December 20th with their 94-83 win against Georgetown as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MUSKETEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Xavier made only 43.1% of their shots which was tied for the third-worst shooting effort this season. The Musketeers had covered the point spread in five straight games before that loss to the Pirates. Xavier has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in at least four of their last five games. The Musketeers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Xavier now returns home where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +12.3 PPG. The Musketeers are making 50.2% of their shots at home which is generating 83.0 PPG. They are also holding their opponents to just 39.7% of their shots when playing on their home court. Xavier matches up quite well against the Red Storm who deploy head coach Mike Anderson’s “40 minutes of hell” full-court press. St. John’s is 29th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their possessions. But the Musketeers get good guard play from seniors Paul Scruggs and Nate Johnson. Xavier only turns the ball over in 16.0% of their possessions which is 37th best in the nation. They have not turned the ball over more than 11 times in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not turning the ball over more than 11 times in their last four. If and when the Musketeers break the Red Storm press, they should torch their defense. St. John’s has an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.7% which is 325th in the nation — and they are allowing their opponents to make 39.6% of their 3-pointers. Xavier has an eFG of 55.9% which is 25th in the country — and they are making 37.2% of their 3-pointers which is 51st in the nation. St. John’s has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win over a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit victory against a Big East foe. The Red Storm shot 47.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games while making 13 of their 29 shots from behind the arc. But St. John’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making at least 13 shots from 3-point land in their last game. The Red Storm also held the Hoyas to just 43.5% shooting which was their second-best scoring effort in their last eight games. Anderson’s team may be rusty in this game having not played in 17 days. They go back on the road where they have lost three of their four games while allowing their home hosts to make 50% of their shots. St. John’s have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Red Storm have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and Xavier has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Xavier (688) minus the points versus the St. John’s (687). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-21 |
Kansas -5.5 v. TCU |
Top |
93-64 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (639) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (640). THE SITUATION: Kansas (8-2) had won eight games in a row before losing at home to Texas on Saturday by an 84-59 score as a 4.5-point favorite. TCU (9-2) has won five straight contests after their 67-60 win at Kansas State on Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas played their worst game of the season on Saturday. They made only 30.8% of their shots from the field including missing 20 of their 23 shots from behind the arc. That 30.8% field goal percentage was their lowest mark of the season. They also allowed the Longhorns to make 49.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Kansas has an opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.5% so they should play better tonight. Head coach Bill Self has been remarkably reliable in getting his team to respond with good efforts after bad losses. The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 10 points against a conference rival. Additionally, Kansas is a dominant 43-19-3 ATS in their last 65 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread setback. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to score at least 60 points in their last game. Perhaps the Jayhawks were primed for a letdown after defeating two ranked teams in Texas Tech and West Virginia in their previous two games. Now they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 130s. Kansas has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. TCU is 4-2 at home this season — but with just a +4.8 net points-per-game differential. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 135.5 to 139.5 point range. Additionally, the Horned Frogs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win over a Big 12 opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread victory. TCU has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home after winning at least two games in a row. The Horned Frogs’ best win this season was against Oklahoma State — their losses were against Providence and Oklahoma. Head coach Jamie Dixon’s team is perhaps best at defending the arc — they are holding opponents to just a 28.2% shooting percentage from 3-point land which is 41st in the nation. But Self’s team is not reliant on 3-pointers — they only take 36.2% of their shots from behind the arc which is the 206th most reliant on 3s in the nation. Kansas should dominate the interior in this game with their size — the Horned Frogs allow their opponents to make 49.6% of their shots inside the arc which is 160th. The Jayhawks should also get plenty of second-chance opportunities. Kansas pulls down 35.1% of their missed shots which is 31st in the nation — and TCU ranks 150th by allowing their opponents to pull down 27.1% of their misses.
FINAL TAKE: Marcus Garrett is questionable for Kansas after suffering a head injury against Texas -- Self said he seemed good yesterday (but would be a game-time decision). The point guard is solid but his potential absence is not devastating for this balanced Jayhawks team. TCU is not in Kansas’ league — they rank 76th and 60th in the nation in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency while the Jayhawks rank 36th and 19th in those metrics. Kansas has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Horned Frogs would be more dangerous as a home dog in this spot if they were playing in front of a packed gym full of fans. Alas … 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Kansas Jayhawks (639) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-20 |
Knicks v. Raptors -8.5 |
Top |
83-100 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (520) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (519). THE SITUATION: Toronto (0-3) has started the new season with three straight losses after their 100-93 loss at Philadelphia as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. New York (2-2) pulled off their second-straight upset victory with their 95-86 win at Cleveland as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS MINUS THE POINTS: It has been a rough start for head coach Nick Nurse’s team. They lost Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol in free agency. They have had to make Tampa Bay their temporary home given COVID protocols in Canada prohibiting travel to and from the United States. Yet this remains a talented basketball team with Pascal Siakam, Kevin Lowry, and quality depth. They added Aron Baynes to compensate for the loss of Ibaka and Gasol (but they could probably use another big man). The Raptors have been outrebounded by at least eight boards in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after getting outrebounded by at least 5 boards in three straight games. Toronto only made 35.6% of their shots on Tuesday against the 76ers which was their worst shooting effort this season. But they did hold the Sixers to only a 38.1% field goal percentage which was their best defensive effort of the season — so that is encouraging. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after a point spread loss. And while Toronto has yet to cover the point spread this season, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in at least three straight games. New York played their best defensive game of the season on Tuesday by holding the Cavaliers to just 36.4% shooting. That defensive effort helped that game finish miles below the 216 point total — but the Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 49 of their last 77 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. That win came on the heels of their 130-110 upset win against Milwaukee on Sunday. But new coach Tom Thibodeau has seen his teams fail to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after pulling off two straight upset wins. Despite these early upsets, this is still a major rebuilding project in New York. They committed a troubling 25 turnovers against Cleveland while enduring a -12 net turnover margin in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after turning the ball over at least ten more times than their opponent. This Knicks team is also dealign with a bunch of injuries with Dennis Smith, Jr., Frank Ntilikina, and rookie Obi Toppin all out and Austin Rivers questionable with a groin.
FINAL TAKE: The Knicks made be just what the doctor ordered for Nurse and this Raptors team. Toronto has won eight straight games against New York while covering the point spread in six of these games. I don’t love that this game is being played in Tampa Bay — but the Raptors have played a game already in their new home this season and we would likely be laying 12 or so points if this game was being played in Toronto (and I would be investing in this situation still). The circumstances here are too good to pass up. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Toronto Raptors (520) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-20 |
Bucks v. Heat +6.5 |
Top |
108-119 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (574) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (573). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (2-2) got a small measure of revenge against a Heat team that eliminated them from the playoffs in the fall with their 144-97 blowout win in Miami as a -6.5-point favorite. Miami (1-2) has lost two of their first three games this season.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Bucks played as if they had been visualizing every 3-point attempt sinking for them since they got eliminated by the Heat in the bubble in last year’s playoffs. Milwaukee made an NBA record 29 shots from behind the arc while nailing 56.9% of their 51 3-point attempts. Needless to say, the Regression Gods will be visiting tonight. The issue is how far down to earth will the Bucks play again tonight? Their team personality suggests they will suffer a significant emotional letdown. Milwaukee is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a double-digit win — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in the four games after a victory. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 6 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. I looked the Bucks closely — I got scared off for two reasons. First, even after last night’s triumph, Milwaukee has still failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 road games when favored by up to 6 points. The second reason I backed off was that Miami was playing without Jimmy Butler who is dealing with an ankle injury. While the Heat are obviously better with Butler leading the team, I was concerned that the oddsmakers and betting market would overcompensate for his absence. Butler has been ruled out tonight — which makes me like the Miami side even more in this rematch situation. With Bam Aqebayo and Goran Dragic leading the way for a team whose depth remains a strength, there is plenty of talent to keep things close tonight. As head coach Erik Spoelstra indicated after the game, his team did not match the Bucks’ intensity level last night. They also did a poor job early in their 3-point defense with Spoelstra indicating that the Bucks’ first 15 shots from downtown were “right in their wheelhouse.” Both of those issues will be corrected tonight. The Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 130 points in their last game. And while they allowed a whopping 46 points in the first quarter en route to going to the locker room at halftime with a 83-57 hole, they also have covered the point spread in 4 of 5 games after trailing by at least 20 points at halftime. Miami has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss by at least 30 points. As it is, this has been a resilient group under Spoelstra. The Heat are 38-14-1 ATS in their last 53 games after a straight-up loss — and this includes them covering the point spread in twenty-six of their last thirty-four games after a setback. Miami has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 10 points on their home court. The Heat made only 46.8% of their shots after nailing at least 50.6% of their shots in their first two games. I think Miami improved their roster by bringing in Moe Harmless for Jae Crowder while also adding the criminally-underrated Avery Bradley. The Heat also committed an unsightly 22 turnovers last night which they should clean up tonight. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee had not looked great early in the season with two losses to Boston and New York along with a win against a Golden State team that may be in for another long year. Chemistry is an issue after significant roster turnover after failing to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Expect a close game and don’t be surprised with a Heat upset — but (always) take the points for some insurance especially with the Heat playing without Butler who is so clutch down the stretch. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Miami Heat (574) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-20 |
Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 224 |
Top |
86-111 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (567) and the Phoenix Suns (568). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-1) has won two of their last three games with their 98-95 win at San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Phoenix (2-1) rebounded from their first loss in nine games going back to the bubble by avenging their loss to the Kings with a 116-110 win in Sacramento as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns made 48.9% of their shots which was the best shooting mark so far in their three games this season. But Phoenix has played 33 of their last 52 games Under the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. The Suns saw the Kings make 47.4% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort of the young season as well. Phoenix has played of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Suns return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total when favored. New Orleans has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This game flew Under the 227.5 point total as well — and the Pelicans have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. New Orleans made only 38.3% of their shots which is concerning since they made only 39.7% of their shots in their previous game at Miami. They go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Pelicans have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 60% or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has seen only 204.7 combined points in their first three games — and Phoenix has seen only 211.0 combined points in their first three games. While matchups make fights, the Pelicans are clearly emphasizing defense under first-year head coach Stan Van Gundy and the Suns’ improvement in the bubble that seems to be carrying over was in part because of improved emphasis on their defensive play (particularly in the emergence of Mikal Bridges). Nice value here. 25* NBA TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (567) and the Phoenix Suns (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-20 |
Northwestern v. Iowa -10.5 |
Top |
72-87 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (628) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (627). THE SITUATION: Iowa (7-2) comes off a 102-95 upset loss at Minnesota on Friday as a 6-point favorite. Northwestern (6-1) pulled off their third-straight upset victory on Saturday when they stunned Ohio State as a 2.5-point home underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa has been remarkably reliable when coming off a straight-up loss under head coach Fran McCaffrey. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a game where both teams scored at least 80 points. Iowa made only 37.2% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort of the season. Now the Hawkeyes return home where they are 7-0 with an average winning margin of +29.5 net PPG. Iowa is making 49.9% of their shots at home which is generating a staggering 96.1 PPG. And while the conventional wisdom on Iowa is that they are not a great defensive team, they hold their guests to 39.9% shooting which is resulting in only 66.6 PPG. The Hawkeyes are 20-4-2 ATS in their last 26 gams at home. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Northwestern has pulled upsets against Michigan State and Indiana before their win over the Buckeyes. The Wildcats have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after an upset win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after an upset win at home against a Big Ten rival. Additionally, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home in the Big Ten — and they are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games after a point spread win. Even in the win, Northwestern demonstrated some vulnerabilities in the paint against the Buckeyes — and that is an ominous sign when now facing Luka Garza who is a scoring machine with his 28.8 PPG scoring average on 62.7% shooting and a beast on the boards with a 10.0 RPG average. The Wildcats are an improved team under head coach Chris Collins — but it has not been a complete roster overhaul of bluechip five stars from the team that finished 3-17 in Big Ten play last season. Collins has his team playing at a quicker pace — but that will be a big mistake if they try that against Iowa. Northwestern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 150s.
FINAL TAKE: It may look easy to take this upstart Wildcats team as a double-digit dog to at least keep things close given their recent success — but that is kinda the point. Iowa has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when laying double-digits. Trust the oddsmakers on this one — the Hawkeyes’ offensive prowess can produce another blowout at Carver-Hawkeyes Arena. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (628) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-20 |
Grizzlies v. Nets UNDER 230 |
Top |
116-111 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (541) and the Brooklyn Nets (542). THE SITUATION: Memphis (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 122-112 upset loss to Atlanta as a 2-point favorite. Brooklyn (2-1) lost their first game of the season yesterday with their 106-104 upset loss at Charlotte as an 11.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Memphis has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Memphis is throwing up a bunch of shots — they have launched 95 and 93 shots in their first two games. But the Grizzlies have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after taking at least 90 shots in two straight games. Furthermore, Memphis has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has made it point to play outstanding defense according to Kevin Durant. They have held their first three opponents to just 39.9% shooting — and these three foes have scored only 100.0 PPG against them. The Hornets shot 44.8% from the field which was the worst defensive performance for the Nets this season. Look for this Brooklyn team to tighten things up on defense. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Nets have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing without rest. UPDATE: Head coach Steve Nash has announced that both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will get the night off given load management after playing yesterday. With the team already missing Dinwiddie, that is plenty of scoring not available tonight. The team trends above capture the personality of this Nets’ team playing in the bubble without Durant and Irving last season — so the Under situation remains very good.
FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn suffered terrible news earlier today with the announcement that Spencer Dinwiddie will be out the season with a torn ACL that he suffered yesterday. Memphis has played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total with the number set at 230 or higher. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (541) and the Brooklyn Nets (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-20 |
Wisconsin v. Michigan State +1.5 |
Top |
85-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (752) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (751). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (6-1) looks to rebound from their first loss of the season on Sunday with their 79-65 upset loss in Evanston against Northwestern as an 8.5-point favorite. Wisconsin (7-1) has won four games in a row with their 67-53 victory over Nebraska on Tuesday as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINT(S): Michigan State probably played their worst game of the season on Sunday. They made only 38.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting marker them this season. They also allowed the Wildcats to make 52.9% of their shots which was their worst defensive performance of the year. Head coach Tom Izzo certainly made defense a priority in practice this week after they allowed Oakland to make 50% of their shots in their previous game. The Spartans have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing their last to opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. Michigan State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Perhaps the biggest challenge for Izzo with his team this season is replacing the leadership of the departed Cassius Winston. While sophomore Rocket Watts has assumed the starting point guard duties, this group is doing a great job of sharing the basketball. The Spartans are second in the nation by assisting on 73.7% of their field goals. They have generated at least 19 assists in three straight games — and Izzo’s teams have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing two straight games with at least 19 teams assists. Michigan State returns home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And while it is not often that Sparty plays at home as an underdog, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games when getting the points. Additionally, Michigan State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Wisconsin has covered the point spread as a favorite for three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games after covering the point spread as a favorite for at least three straight contests. The Badgers have held their last three opponents to no better than 38.9% shooting from the field — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not allowing their last three opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. Furthermore, Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. The Badgers are 9th in the nation by making 41.9% of their shots from behind the arc — but they may be too reliant on these shots with them making up 39.0% of their shots from the floor. In their lone loss this season against Marquette, they made only 7 of their 24 shots (29.1%) from 3-point land. Perhaps not coincidentally, that game on December 4th was their only game so far this season played away from their home court at the Kohl Center. The Badgers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last five games on the road after playing their previous three games at home.
FINAL TAKE: The home team has covered the point spread in 8 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams. Look for Michigan State to play one of their best defensive games of the season after their loss to what now looks like a pretty good Northwestern team who followed up their upset win against Sparty with a road win at Indiana. 25* CBB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Michigan State Spartans (752) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-20 |
Pelicans v. Heat -3 |
Top |
98-111 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (578) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (577). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-1) looks to rebound from their 113-107 upset loss at Orlando on Wednesday as a 4.5-point favorite. New Orleans (1-0) looks to build off their 113-99 upset victory at Toronto as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: The defending Eastern Conference champions were a bit flat in their 2020-21 season debut. They turned the ball over 22 times in a sloppy effort against the Magic. The spotlight of national television should help Miami tighten things up this afternoon. This team has been consistently good under head coach Erik Spoelstra after disappointing efforts. Miami has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss to a Southeast Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset loss to a divisional opponent. Additionally, the Heat have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 32 home games as a favorite, the Heat are 21-10-1 ATS. New Orleans may be due for a letdown in their first game under new head coach Stan Van Gundy as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up victory. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 23 games on the road after an upset victory by at least 10 points. New Orleans has Zion Williamson but they traded away Jrue Holliday to Milwaukee while getting Eric Bledsoe. I am not sure why Van Gundy keeps getting jobs after doing nothing in his last tenure with Detroit. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 trips to Miami to play the Heat. This is a nice early situation for us. 25* NBA ESPN Game of the Month with the Miami Heat (578) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (577). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-20 |
Murray State v. Austin Peay +3 |
Top |
70-74 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Austin Peay Governors (786) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (785). THE SITUATION: Austin Peay (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 76-70 upset loss to Florida A&M as a 13-point favorite last Tuesday. Murray State (4-2) has won three of their last four games after their 90-49 win against Transylvania last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOVERNORS PLUS THE POINTS: Austin Peay should respond with a strong effort as they are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games after a straight-up loss. That game with Florida A&M might have been their worst effort of the season. They only made 39.7% of their shots which was the second-lowest mark all season. They also allowed Florida A&M to make 55.6% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered all season. The Governors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. This is a good team under head coach Matt Figger in his fourth year in the program. He had two players declare early for the NBA draft in the spring — but Terry Taylor and Jordyn Adams decided to return for their senior and sophomore seasons. Austin Peay was 21-12 with a 14-4 record in the Ohio Valley before the stoppage of play. They are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Murray State may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. The Racers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a double-digit win at home. Murray State has played only twice on the road where they have suffered both of their losses. The Racers returned three starters from the team that finished 15-3 in the Ohio Valley and 23-9 overall — but there is only one senior in their rotation. Murray State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams already played once on December 8th when the Racers embarrassed the Governors on their home court by an 87-57 score. Austin Peay gets to avenge that loss on their home court tonight — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 20 points. 25* CBB Monday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Austin Peay Governors (786) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (785). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-20 |
Duke -2.5 v. Notre Dame |
Top |
75-65 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (693) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (694). THE SITUATION: Duke (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 83-68 upset loss to Illinois back on December 8th as a 3-point favorite. Notre Dame (2-2) has won two of their last three games after their 64-63 upset victory in Rupp Arena against Kentucky on Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: The college basketball observers who pontificate about point spreads think that the oddsmakers have installed Duke as a favorite only because of the reputation of head coach Mike Krzyzewski. Well, he has managed to lead his team to cover point spread expectations in 19 of their last 24 games after an upset loss by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss by at least 15 points. Additionally, his Blue Devils are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after a loss by at least 10 points. Now of the reasons why Krzyzewski's teams are so reliable after setbacks is the disappointment usually ensures a captive audience from the uber-talented roster he consistently assembles. Duke will be without their most naturally-talented player in Jalen Johnson after the freshman suffered a foot injury. And while this Duke team may lack the elite talent of some of his recent teams, there are still plenty of five-star players at his disposal — and this is one of his deepest teams over the last few seasons. The eight days off between games will help Coach K continue to work with his team in practice. He will fine-tune some issues on defense after the Illini shot 58.6% from the field which was the worst defensive performance of their season. This is the Blue Devils from game away from Cameron Indoor — but Duke has covered the point spread in 5 straight road games after playing at three straight games at home. The Blue Devils have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 140s. Notre Dame is riding high after their upset victory over another blue blood in Kentucky — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road. The Fighting Irish raced out to a 31-9 lead in the first ten minutes of the game before going into halftime with a 22-point lead. But Notre Dame was outscored by a deceive 54-33 margin in the final 30 minutes. And head coach Mike Brey’s teams at South Bend have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. The Irish return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after not forcing more than 14 turnovers in at least four straight games. Notre Dame has not forced more than 12 turnovers in any of their four games — and they rank 315th in the nation by only turning the ball over in 13.6% of their opponent’s possessions. Furthermore, the Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as an underdog or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: This Duke team — despite losses to Michigan State and Illinois — ranks 17th in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. So take all the negative talk about how down this the Blue Devils team is with a grain or two of salt. Let’s trust KenPom and the oddsmakers’ judgment (and Coach K!). 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month with Duke Blue Devils (693) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (694). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-15-20 |
Minnesota v. Illinois -7.5 |
Top |
65-92 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (616) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (615). THE SITUATION: Illinois (4-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 81-78 upset loss at Missouri on Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. Minnesota (6-0) remained unbeaten to start the season with their 90-61 win over UMKC last Thursday as a 17-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ILLINI MINUS THE POINTS: Illinois bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss. Illinois has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 75 points. This is a battle-tested team whose other loss is to the second-ranked team in the nation in Baylor — and all they did between their losses was crush Duke at Cameron Indoor Arena by an 83-68 score. The Illini have one of the best starting-fives in the nation led by a dynamic inside-out duo of Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. Dosunmu was a preseason All-American who is scoring 24.8 PPG while adding 7.7 Rebounds-Per-game and 5.2 Assists-Per-Game. The 7’0 Cockburn is also an NBA talent who scored 13.3 PPG last season while pulling down 8.8 Assists-Per-Game. They return home to Champagne for only their fourth game on their home court this season — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 42 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. Minnesota is just 2-6-3 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Now the Golden Gophers go on the road for the first time all season — and they gave failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after playing their last three games at home. Minnesota has not been a great team on the road under head coach Richard Pitino. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Golden Gophers have also failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 47 road games as an underdog in the 6.5 to 9 point range. This team was better than their 15-16 record last year. They certainly got a shot in the arm when Marcus Carr bypassed the NBA to return for his junior season. And Minnesota added two nice transfer players in center Liam Robbins from Drake and guard Both Gach from Utah. Yet this is an untested group whose overtime win last week at home against Boston College was their only game against a power-five conference opponent before tonight.
FINAL TAKE: This will be an angry Illini team after losing to Mizzou — and the Golden Gophers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Illinois Fighting Illini (616) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-20 |
Texas v. North Carolina +1 |
Top |
69-67 |
Loss |
-107 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (716) plus (or minus) the points versus Texas (715) in the finals of the Maui Invitational in Asheville, North Carolina. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (3-0) reached the finals of the Maui Invitational yesterday with their 67-63 win over Stanford as a 4-point favorite. Texas (3-0) joined them in the finals with their 66-44 upset victory over Indiana as a +2.5-point underdog. This game is being played on a neutral court in Asheville.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: Look for a big emotional letdown from the Longhorns after their easy win over the Hoosiers. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. Shaka Smart’s team deserves some credit for their defensive effort as they held Indiana to just 23.9% shooting. But Indiana could not hit the side of the barn yesterday — and they deserve blame for their inability to make shots. The Longhorns limited the Hoosiers to only 6 offensive rebounds after holding Davidson to just 3 offensive rebounds in their last game. But Texas has then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 9 offensive rebounds in two straight games. Now here comes the size of another Roy Williams team at North Carolina that is 7th in the nation by pulling down 44.5% of their missed shots. This is a young team for Williams this season — but this tournament is providing him an opportunity to teach in a concentrated setting. His teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Additionally, North Carolina is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Tar Heels are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on a neutral court. While the Longhorns are talented, so is this North Carolina team — and their style of play of crashing the glass for second-chance scoring opportunities is a consistent formula to get baskets when playing in tournaments like this. 25* CBB Maui Invitational Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (716) plus (or minus) the points versus Texas (715). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-20 |
Kentucky +4.5 v. Kansas |
Top |
62-65 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (627) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (628). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 76-64 loss at home to Richmond as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas (1-1) rebounded from their loss to Gonzaga to open the season with a 94-72 thrashing of Saint Joseph’s last Friday as a 20.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Kentucky opened as a small favorite in this game because of their net edge in raw talent — but the market has been all over Kansas of this one. This sets up a nice strong contrarian play with the opportunity to take the better talent as a dog getting four or so points. The Wildcats certainly looked vulnerable against a veteran and savvy Spiders team — but that offered head coach John Calipari some outstanding teaching moments for his young team. I expect a much better effort from this Kentucky team that has four freshmen in their starting lineup. In Calipari I will trust — his teams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. The Wildcats have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread setback. Kentucky managed only five assists on Sunday which is certainly an issue that Calipari will address in sharing the basketball better. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not registering at least nine assists in their last game. Kentucky did lose their top six scorers from last season — and Keion Brooks is injured for this game after being the team’s only regular returning player from last season. But Calipari also brought in a couple of veteran transfers in seven-footer Olivier Sarr who was a third-team All-ACC player for Wake Forest last season along with Davion Mintz who scored 9.7 PPG for Creighton two years ago. Kansas will be at a size disadvantage in this game as they were against Gonzaga who shot 64.5% against them while retaining a +9 rebound edge against the Jayhawks. Kansas may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a win by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. This Kansas team was poised to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament last year — but they lost their top two players from that team in Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike who accounted for 31.8 PPG. This Jayhawks team lacks a go-to scorer. And while this remains a very good team, the elite talent that Bill Self has been able to attract in the past is starting to thin out given the toll of years of NCAA investigations. Gonzaga simply outclassed them — so much so, that some experts are describing that Bulldogs team as one of the best collegiate teams in the last ten years. Maybe … but they have played two games together, so let’s not overreact.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas may win this game — but Calipari will have his team ready to play their best game of the season. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s — and the Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games with the over/under in the 140 to 149.5 point range. 25* CBB Champions Classic Game of the Year with the Kentucky Wildcats (627) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-20 |
Texas State v. Mississippi State -6.5 |
Top |
51-68 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (872) minus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (871). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (0-2) remained winless this season after losing to Liberty on a neutral court in Melbourne, Florida last Thursday as a 4.5-point favorite. Texas State (2-0) remained unbeaten after their 75-63 win over Texas A&M Corpus Christi yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State needs a win after losing both their games in Florida last week — they also lost to a solid Clemson team. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their 22 games after a double-digit loss under head coach Ben Howland. And while they did not cover the point spread in either of those games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Rowland led a team that won their third-straight 20-win season last year but the decision of sophomore Robert Woodard to go pro left this team in rebuilding mode. This is a sophomore-laden group with talent that should continue to improve. Tolu Smith, a 6’10 sophomore transfer from Western Kentucky, has averaged 16.0 PPG while adding 9.5 Rebounds-Per-Game. Sophomore guard D.J. Stewart has added 16.0 PPG along with 3.0 Assists-Per-Game. This young team should benefit from the weekend of practice under Howland after their initial two games in Florida. Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 home games with the Total listed in the 135 to 139.5 point range. Mississippi State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Texas State faces a challenging travel day playing without rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing their second game in three days. Additionally, the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a point spread win. This will be this team’s toughest test of the season after opening their season with a win against the private schoool University of Mary Hardin-Baylor. Texas State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: In addition to the situational edge the Bulldogs have for this game having been at home all weekend before hosting this game, they also have a big edge in coaching. Terrence Johnson is the Bobcats’ interim head coach after Danny Kaspar was let go in September after the revelation of several racially-charged comments to his team over the years. No offense to Johnson, but Howland has a significant experience edge who has had extra preparation time for this game — and he needs the win. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (872) minus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (871). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-20 |
UCLA v. San Diego State UNDER 133 |
Top |
58-73 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (385) and the San Diego State Aztecs (386). THE SITUATION: UCLA (0-0) returns all five starters that were 19-12 before play was stopped in March due to COVID. San Diego State (30-2) lost three starters including All-American point guard Malachi Flynn who was drafted in the first round by Toronto from the group that was 30-2 before the stoppage.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I am cautious in these early college basketball games — especially on the opening day during a pandemic. But with the Bruins returning five starters from last year’s team, I am more comfortable relying on the statistics from last year. UCLA was more-and-more beginning to look like Mick Cronin’s teams at Cincinnati who played hard-nosed defense while crashing the glass on offense at a moderate (at best) pace. While the Bruins ranked 100th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, Cronin had his team playing as the 43rd best defensive team in adjusted efficiency in their final ten games. UCLA was not a great offensive team last season either — they ranked 206th in the nation with their 69.3 PPG scoring average while ranking 230th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 48.4%. They only made 32.2% of their 3-pointers as well which was 226th in the country. The Bruins were pulling down 34.5% of their missed shots which was 21st in the nation — but the Aztecs usually do a good job of protecting their defensive rim which is a foundation of the program that head coach Brian Dutcher has continued from being the long-time assistant here to Steve Fisher. San Diego State held their opponents to rebounding only 25.4% of their missed shot last year. UCLA has played 34 of their last 45 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 130-139.5 point range — and those numbers tightened to them playing 18 of their last 24 road games Under the Total with the number in the 130-134.5 point range. San Diego State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home. Additionally, the Aztecs have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played a decisive 21 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as an underdog at home. Dutcher gets back his 6’10 sophomore rim protector Nathan Mensah this season after he only played 13 games last year before going on the shelf with a blood clot issue. San Diego State held their opponents to just 56.3 PPG when Mensah was healthy — and that number rose to 61.3 PPG after his injury.
FINAL TAKE: The California programs had the least amount of time to practice given state COVID restrictions. I think this dynamic will exacerbate the weaknesses for these California teams early in the season — and that means that the UCLA and San Diego State offensive attacks are likely to be a step or two behind. 25* CBB CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (385) and the San Diego State Aztecs (386). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-20 |
Heat v. Lakers UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
111-108 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (709) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (710) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (67-23) took a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals on Tuesday with their 102-96 victory over the Heat. Miami (57-35) looks to keep their championship dreams alive in this must-win game for them. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat were able to get Bam Adebayo back on the court in Game Four where he played over 33 minutes. With the two days of rest since that game, Adebayo should be able to at least match that amount of time on the court tonight. As I argued for Game Two last Friday (our NBA Total of the Year), playing without Adebayo would have a significant impact on a higher-scoring game. The highest two scoring games in this series were Games Two and Three which Adebayo did not play — 238 and 219 combined points were scored in those two games. Adebayo’s return to the court leads to lower scoring games. For starters, he is Miami’s best interior defender. Anthony Davis can almost score at will if he is being defended by Meyers Leonard or Kelly Olynyk. But Leonard and Olynyk are both capable outside shooters that Adebayo. Head coach Erik Spoelstra has his team play at a faster pace when Adebayo is not on the court. In all, Adebayo’s presence on the court tonight means better defense for the Heat along with a slower pace and less 3-point shooting. Miami has been outrebounded by seven boards in each of the four games in this series. The Heat have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. Miami has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least two days of rest. And in their last 6 playoff games when trailing in the series, the Heat have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a victory by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Lakers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. Head coach Frank Vogel made a nice coaching adjustment on Tuesday by giving Anthony Davis the defensive assignment against Jimmy Butler. Not only does this make Butler’s job scoring at the rim more of a challenge but Davis was playing off Butler at the top of the key while seemingly daring him to take 3-pointers. Yet Butler only laughed three shots from downtown — missing all three attempts. Miami ended that game with a 42.7% field goal percentage which was tied for the lowest shooting mark in their last fourteen games. The Lakers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after outrebounding their opponent by at least 5 boards in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* NBA Friday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (709) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (710). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-20 |
Lakers -7.5 v. Heat |
Top |
102-96 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (707) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (708) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (66-23) lost their first game in the NBA Finals on Sunday with their 115-104 upset loss as a 9-point favorite. Miami (57-34) still trails by a 2-1 margin in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has responded with victories in all three of their postseason losses this year — and their average winning margin in those games is+13 Points-Per-Game. They have also covered the point spread in all 3 games this season when they lost by double-digits as a favorite laying at least 6 points. The Lakers were flat in Game Three. They shot just 43% from the field which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last twelve games. They allowed the Heat to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last five games. After committing only ten turnovers in Game Two, LA turned the ball over ten times in just the 1st quarter in Game Three en route to 20 turnovers for the game. Anthony Davis was slowed by committing three personal fouls in the first half. He only played 33 minutes and scored only 15 minutes after scoring at least 32 points in the first two games of this series. Davis was simply not very active on Sunday as he attempted only nine shots despite the Heat lacking credible defenders inside the paint given the injury to Bam Adebayo. Davis has failed to score at least 20 points only sixteen times this season. After a lackluster Game Three in the Western Conference Finals against Denver, Davis was spectacular in the next two games averaging 30.5 PPG. The Lakers should also score more points in transition in this game. After netting +6.1 points per 100 possession clip in transition in Game One and +1.1 points per 100 possession mark in transition in Game Two, LA had -1.4 points per 100 possession rating in Game Three. They had adequate transition scoring chances that represented 12.1% of their possessions on Sunday, but they only scored at 90.9 points per 100 possession rate. The Lakers entered this series averaging 23.3 points per game via transitions which was tops in the NBA playoffs with 18.5% of their possessions coming from transition. Los Angeles’ loss snapped a four-game winning streak — but they have still won 22 of their last 29 games after winning three of their last four games. They also have won 23 of their last 34 games after winning four of their last five contests. The Lakers are still dominating Miami on the boards. Their 50-43 advantage on the boards in Game Three was the narrowest that margin has so far been in this series. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least five boards — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of these last five situations. Miami played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding LA to 43% shooting. They received a superhuman effort from Jimmy Butler who scored 40 points with 13 assists and 11 rebounds in his first career triple-double in the playoffs. This was the second-best Game Score registered by Basketball-Reference in the playoffs since 1984 which is how far back they can measure that metric. After logging in 45 minutes to carry his team to victory, it is highly unlikely that Butler can come close to replicating that performance. Butler made 14 of his 20 shots on Sunday — but he made only 45.1% of his shots from the field during the regular season. And Butler has scored more than 30 points in nine of his 44 playoff games since he became an All-Star in 2015 — so it was a relatively rare occurrence. As it is, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a double-digit victory as an underdog. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games on the road after scoring at least 115 points. The Heat were without the injured Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic on Sunday which made Butler’s effort even more spectacular. Dragic will probably not play in this series but Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game with his neck injury. He wanted to play on Sunday but was not cleared by the Miami medical staff. Even if he does take the court, it remains questionable how effective he can be (as we learned, unfortunately, last night with both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley not being effective playing with injuries despite participating in practices at the end of the week).
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss were they were favored by at least 7 points. Look for LA to come out with similar intensity as they did in Game One of this series which they won by 18 points. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (707) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-02-20 |
Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 |
Top |
114-124 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (703) and the Los Angeles Lakers (704) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (65-22) won the opening game of this series on Wednesday with their 116-98 victory over the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite. Miami (56-33) has lost two of their last three games — and they suffered two critical injuries in that game to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic that have an immediate impact on this series moving forward. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Miami hit only 42.7% of their shots on Wednesday which was the lowest shooting mark in their last four games. They also made just 11 of their 36 shots from downtown for a low 31% mark. The team was simply overwhelmed in the 2nd quarter after racing out to an early 13-point lead. Adebayo only played 21 minutes while Dragic managed just 14:50 minutes before leaving the game to their injuries. The Lakers nailed 60% of their 3-pointers in the first half en route to 65 points. The Heat have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Moving forward, the injuries to Adebayo and Dragic forces head coach Erik Spoelstra to make some significant changes. He is going to play more small-ball — which means a faster tempo, more 3-pointers but a reliance on players with defensive liabilities. Without Adebayo and Dragic on the court, Miami has seen the average possessions per game rise from a 97.4 average to 101 possessions per game. The Heat have their worst Defensive Rating when Dragic is not on the court. His absence means more minutes for Tyler Herro who can be lights out on offense but is a work in progress on the defensive end of the court. Adebayo claims he is going to try to play tonight. We’ll see. Spoelstra will have to give more minutes to Kelly Olynyk in his absence which is another player with defensive limitations when playing against a player like Anthony Davis. Spoelstra will likely embrace more small-ball lineups and even more 3-point shooting in the hopes that his team can replicate the 38% shooting from behind the arc they enjoyed during the first two rounds of the playoffs. The Heat have now allowed at least 113 points in their last three games — and they have played 9 straight games on the road Over the Total after allowing at least 110 points in three straight games. They also have played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Los Angeles coasted to victory despite making only 45.2% of their shots which was the lowest mark in their last four games. The Lakers raced out to a 65-48 halftime lead while nailing 60% of their 3-pointers in the first 24 minutes of that game. That was the sixth time that LA has scored at least 60 points in the first half of their sixteen playoff games. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after enjoying a 15-point lead at halftime. They also had a 10-point lead at halftime in their final game with Denver — and the Lakers have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after generating double-digit halftime leads in two straight games. And in their last 20 games after a victory by at least 15 points, they have played 13 of these games Over the Total. The Lakers have an Offensive Rating of 115.7 which is 2nd best of all playoff teams. Davis scored 34 points on Wednesday and should have his way inside with Adebayo out (or less than 100%). Los Angeles outrebounded the Heat by a 54 to 36 margin in Game One — and Miami has played 8 straight road games Over the Total after a game where they were outrebounded by at least 15 boards.
FINAL TAKE: The Heat have to shoot their way to victory tonight — and if they miss, that triggers the Lakers’ transition offense from which they entered this series averaging 23.3 PPG in transition with it representing 18.5% of their offense. Miami has lost all three meetings with LA this season — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (703) and the Los Angeles Lakers (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-20 |
Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 215 |
Top |
107-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (711) and the Los Angeles Lakers (712) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (63-22) took a 3-1 lead in this series on Thursday with their 114-108 victory over the Nuggets as a 6-point favorite. Denver (55-36) once again finds themselves on the brink of elimination down 3-1 in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The referees responded from the criticism from LeBron James about not getting enough whistles as the Lakers got to the charity stripe 35 times from which they converted on 28 of those attempts. Look for the fewer fouls to be called in tonight’s game. The Lakers have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less. Denver made 50.6% of their shots in Game Four which was the third straight game where the Lakers allowed them to make at least 47.3% of their shots from the field. Los Angeles has then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. The Lakers have scored at least 105 points in eight straight games — but that is a strong indicator that this game will finish below the number. LA has played 48 of their last 76 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games — and they have played 38 of their last 60 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games. And in their last 47 games after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games, they have then played 30 of these games Under the Total. And while these two teams have seen 220 and 222 combined points scored in the last two games, the Lakers have then played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Denver has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. The Nuggets are certainly familiar with this situation of being on the brink of elimination. They must crave danger. The urgency of avoiding the abyss does motivate better efforts on the defensive end of the court for Denver. In Game Six and Seven of their series with Utah, the Nuggets held the Jazz to just 45.3% and 38.0% shooting which resulted in only 107 and 78 points in the final two games of that series. Then in Game Five, Six, and Seven in their series with the Clippers, Denver clamped down to hold Kawhi Leonard and company to 42%, 41%, and 37.8% shooting which translated into 105, 98, and 89 points. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.
FINAL TAKE: These team trends are complemented by an empirical situational angle that has been 61% effective over the last five seasons. The Lakers have not covered the point spread in the last two games in this series — and in games involving two teams with a winning percentage in the 60 to 75% range, when one team has not covered the point spread in two straight games, these games have then finished Under the Total in 116 of these last 189 situations where these conditions applied. While Davis is one of the best defenders in the league, if he is not 100% (or does not play), that helps our Under play since he is so important to the Lakers offense — he is averaging 29 PPG in the postseason. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (711) and the Los Angeles Lakers (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-25-20 |
Heat v. Celtics -3 |
Top |
108-121 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (716) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (715) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-30) hopes to stave off elimination tonight after getting upset in Game Four of this series to the Heat on Wednesday by a 112-109 score as a 3.5-point favorite. Miami now owns a 3-1 lead in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Complacency has been the hobgoblin for this Boston team in this series. The Celtics are too often letting up in their intensity and focus. After falling behind by a 2-0 margin, they got Gordon Hayward back in Game Three who helped them with that game by a comfortable 117-106 score. And while many pundits commented on how Hayward was a series-changer with him being the right piece to counter the Miami zone defense, I worried about Boston’s determination after avoiding a disastrous 0-3 start to the series. And the Celtics came out flat on Wednesday. Jayson Tatum scored zero points while failing to get to the free-throw line even once in the first twenty-four minutes of the game. Boston went into the locker room at halftime trailing by a 50-44 score — this was their first deficit at halftime since the opening round of these playoffs. If head coach Brad Stevens is going to accomplish just one thing tonight, it will be to get his team to come out with more fire. The Celtics are still outscoring Miami by +19 points in the 1st quarter of this series. Boston has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games away from home after an upset loss. Additionally, the Celtics are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread setback. And while Game Four finished above the 212 point Total, Boston has then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games away from after a game that finished Over the Total. The Celtics are outshooting and outrebounding the Heat in this series while also shooting better from behind the arc. The reason why both these teams have each scored exactly 441 points in this series is that Boston is turning the ball over which is giving Miami additional scoring chances. The Celtics are averaging 16.0 turnovers per game while coughing the ball up in 16.4% of their possessions in this series. The Heat are averaging only 11.3 turnovers per game which is helping them take 6 more shots per game than Boston. That’s the series. Only Cleveland had a worse turnover percentage during the regular season. Stevens should be able to impart the importance of Boston paying more attention to protecting the basketball. The Celtics turned the ball over in just 13.6% of their possessions in the regular season. And Boston is scoring at a healthy 114.6 points per possession rate in this series when not turning the ball over. Hayward’s ability to knock down 3s to break the Miami zone defense still exists — the Celtics were +4.9 points per possession better with Hayward on the floor during the regular season. Boston has lost and failed to cover the point spread in four of their last six games. But the Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games away from home after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset victory. And while the last two games have finished Over the Total, the Heat have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games away from home after playing two straight Overs. Miami received a stellar effort from Tyler Herro who scored 37 points on Wednesday — and while I have appreciated that the former Kentucky Wildcat is emerging as a star, he is unlikely to replicate that performance tonight. The Heat also have an issue with Bam Adebayo not being at 100% with a wrist injury. While it looks like he will play, it is unclear how productive he can be.
FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games away from home when avenging an upset loss. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (716) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (715). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-24-20 |
Lakers -6 v. Nuggets |
Top |
114-108 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (709) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (710) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (62-22) lost their first game in their last seven playoff contests with their 114-106 upset loss to the Nuggets on Tuesday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (55-35) now trails in this series by a 2-1 margin. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles slacked with their effort on defense on Tuesday as they allowed the Nuggets to shoot 54.8% from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last thirteen games. After allowing Denver to score 93 points after the first three quarters, the Lakers tightened things up to limit the Nuggets to just 21 points in the final twelve minutes. LA was also out-rebounded by a 45 to 25 margin while pulling down an embarrassingly sparse four offensive boards. Anthony Davis did not bother to notch his first offensive rebound until the 4th quarter. This team has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after being out-rebounded by at least ten boards in their last game. The Lakers’ effort was not as high as it has been in their six-game winning streak. But LeBron James and company should respond with a strong performance tonight as they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after winning four of their last five games. The offensive prowess of this team has been consistent as they have shot at least 50% from the field in nine of their last eleven playoff games. Nine of their last ten playoff wins this postseason have been by more than 6 points — so when the Lakers win, they are also covering point spread expectations. And then there is James. In his career, James has seen his team take a 2-0 lead in the playoffs twenty-three times. It has been just eight times when James’ team then lost Game Three up 2-0 in the series. Only once in Game Four did James and his teammates then respond with a straight-up victory to seize the commanding 3-1 series lead. Denver has covered the point spread in the last two games in this series — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 61 games away from home after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games away from home after a point spread win. Denver played one of their best games in the postseason Jamal Murray scoring 28 points with 12 rebounds and 12 assists while Nikola Jokic added 22 points along with 10 boards. And Jeramy Grant played perhaps his best playoff game ever with 26 points while outplaying a listless Anthony Davis. The Nuggets’ 54.8% shooting percentage was the mark in their last eleven games — and they have made at least 47.3% of their shots in six straight games. But Denver may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after making at least 47% of their shots in five straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (709) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-20 |
Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 214 |
Top |
106-114 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and the Denver Nuggets (708) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (62-21) has now won six games in a row in dramatic fashion with Anthony Davis nailing a buzzer-beating 3-pointers to seal a 105-103 victory over the Nuggets on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (54-35) is now down 2-0 to the Lakers in this series. This game is being played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: An encouraging aspect that the Nuggets can take from Game Two of this series was their improved play on defense in the final 24 minutes of that game. Denver limited the Lakers to just 45 points in the second half while limiting them to scoring at just a 0.95 Points-Per-Possession rate. Los Angeles missed 15 of their 21 shots from behind that arc in the second half. The Nuggets have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in Denver’s last 4 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread setback. And while that game finished just below the closing total of 209, the Nuggets have played a decisive 55 of their last 93 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Denver has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 26 of their last 41 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three of their last four games. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow win by no more than 3 points. The Lakers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a victory where they did cover the point spread as the favorite. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning at least six games in a row. The Lakers have scored at least 105 points in each of their six victories in a row — but they have played 23 of their last 36 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games. Additionally, LA has played 38 of their last 58 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games — and they have played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. This Lakers’ team remains relatively rested after taking care of Houston in five games in the Western Conference Semifinals — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when not playing more than three games in the last ten days.
FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have lost all four meetings between these two teams in 2020 — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and the Denver Nuggets (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-20 |
Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
104-89 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (729) and the Los Angeles Clippers (730) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (53-33) pulled off their second-straight upset victory on Sunday as they defeated the Clippers by a 111-98 score as a 9-point underdog to force this Game Seven. Los Angeles (56-20) has blown a lead of at least 15 points in the last two contests in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Apparently, it is the sense of imminent failure that motivates this Nuggets team to play harder on defense. Five of Denver’s seven victories this postseason have come in elimination games. They held the Clippers to just 41% shooting on Sunday in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games — this performance was highlighted by them getting a defensive stop in eleven straight possessions in the second half. The Nuggets also nailed 54.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in the last seven contests. Denver has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games are a double-digit win. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games are a point spread victory. And in their last 15 playoff games with the series tied, the Nuggets have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles played their worst defensive game in their last fourteen contests after allowing Denver can 54.1% of their shots. Head coach Doc Rivers will likely shorten his bench tonight which means less time for Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams who are offensive spark plugs off the bench but who have liabilities on the defensive end of the court. The Clippers have only covered the point spread once in the last five games in this series — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after only covering the point spread at least three of their last four games. Los Angeles has also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total away from home after not covering the point spread in their last two games.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 23 of their last 33 games away from home Under the Total after suffering an upset loss — and they have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss when favored by at least 7 points. 25* NBA Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (729) and the Los Angeles Clippers (730). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-03-20 |
Nuggets v. Clippers -9.5 |
Top |
97-120 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (736) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (735). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-25) returns to the court tonight after defeating Dallas in six games with their 111-97 win over the Mavericks as a 9-point favorite on August 30th. Denver (50-30) outlasted Utah in their seven-game series that culminated with their 80-78 victory as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Look for the Nuggets to suffer an emotional letdown after rallying from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Jazz. Don’t be surprised if this team looks tired tonight. Denver played their hardest game on defense in the bubble on Tuesday — they held Utah to just 38.0% shooting. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 47 games after a straight-up win. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after winning at least two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning at least three games in a row. Furthermore, while the Nuggets have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games away from home after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Los Angeles will be rested and ready for this game — and they are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games when playing with at least three days of rest including covering the point spread in nine of these last twelve situations. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when playing no more than their fifth game in the last fourteen days. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games away from home after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Clippers have covered the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Doc Rivers has indicated that Patrick Beverley will likely take the court tonight after missing time with his calf injury. He gives the team a big boost on defense. It will probably take a game for the Nuggets to adjust to the new challenge of facing this Clippers team. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (736) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (735). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-02-20 |
Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 217 |
Top |
102-104 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (731) and the Houston Rockets (732) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (47-31) forced a climactic seventh game in this series on Monday with their 104-100 upset win over the Rockets as a 4.5-point underdog. Houston (47-31) ha lost three of their last four games in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets blew their opportunity to close out this series on Monday despite making 45.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. Houston has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Rockets have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Houston has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. The pressure of the playoffs tends to play a role in making all the 3s this team launches not fall quite as much. Every statistical moment is not the same — pressure plays a role in these games despite the protestations from the analytics community. It was their last Game Seven against Golden State back in the spring of 2018 where the Rockets missed twenty-seven straight 3-point shots. Houston has played 17 of their last 23 playoff games Under the Total when tied in the series including six straight Unders. They also have played 18 of their last 23 playoff games Under the Total with the opportunity to close out the series. Additionally, the Rockets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Oklahoma City has seen the Under go a decisive 48-21-1 in their last 70 games as an underdog. Additionally, the Thunder have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 28 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Finding consistent scoring options for head coach Billy Donovan has been an issue outside of Chris Paul who scored 15 of his 28 points on Monday in the 4th quarter. Donovan is still starting Lu Dort alongside Steven Adams despite their liabilities on offense. When they are on the floor in this series the Thunder are scoring at just a 66.7 points per 100 possession rate — the Rockets are comfortable playing off both of them to pack the paint. But they are giving Donovan defense as Houston is scoring at just an 89.3 points per 100 possession rate when those two are on the court. I don’t see Donovan moving away from starting this combo tonight.
FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total away from home when looking to avenge an upset loss. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (731) and the Houston Rockets (732). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-20 |
Georgia Southern v. Georgia State -4.5 |
Top |
81-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (668) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (667) in the Quarterfinals of the Sun Belt Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Georgia State (19-12) snapped their three-game losing streak back on March 3rd with their 89-70 win over Arkansas-Little Rock as a 3.5-point favorite. Georgia Southern (19-13) advanced to the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 82-81 win over UL-Lafayette on Monday where they were 8.5-point favorites. Georgia State is the host school for the Sun Belt tournament with the games being played in the GSU Sports Center.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Eagles shot 53.3% from the field on Monday in that win which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. But they also made only 10 of their 20 free throws — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to make more than 53% of their free throws in their last contest. Missing freebies has been an Achilles’ heel for this team as they were last in the Sun Belt by making just 67% of their free throws — and they ranked 277th in the nation overall by hitting just 67.7% of their free throws the season. Georgia Southern may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of the rest 19 games after a win by 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less. Now this team goes back on the road after playing their last two games at home where they make only 43.0% of their field goal attempts — so missing free throws could hurt this team. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 19 road games as an underdog getting 6 points or less. Furthermore, Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in March. Additionally, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing their second game in three days. Georgia State should have a big advantage when it comes to energy with their eight days off — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with at last a week off between games. The Panthers’ style under first-year head coach Rob Lanier emphasizes launching plenty of 3s with their four-out attack while crashing the offensive glass and using pressure to force turnovers. Georgia State is 2nd in the Sun Belt by pulling down 35.8% of their missed shots — and they are also 2nd in the conference by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their conference opponents. The Panthers took 41.2% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play — and they rank 13th in the nation by nailing 40.3% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. Georgia State is 12-2 at home with an average winning margin of +15.2 PPG — and they were led by a stingy defense that limited their guests to just 38.8% shooting which resulted in only 68.4 PPG. The Panthers are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 home games — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Georgia State should build off the momentum of their victory over the Trojans as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a win by at least 15 points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games in expected higher scoring games with the Total set in the 150s.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will be looking to avenge a 79-70 upset loss at home to Georgia Southern back on February 28th where they were 5-point favorites. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Georgia State Panthers (668) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (667). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-20 |
Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion UNDER 132.5 |
Top |
66-56 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the opening round of the Conference USA tournament between the Florida Atlantic Owls (675) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (676). THE SITUATION: FAU (16-15) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 94-82 loss at Marshall as a 5.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Old Dominion (13-18) has lost three of their last five games with their 72-63 loss at UAB as a 2-point favorite on last Saturday. The Conference USA tournament is being played on a neutral court at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Owls allowed the Thundering Herd to nail 53.4% of their shots which was the second-worst defensive effort of their season (and worst over their last fourteen games). FAU has then played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Owls have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss against a conference rival. Now FAU stays on the road where they are making just 40.1% of their shots which is resulting in only 65.6 PPG. The Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games played on a neutral court — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games on a neutral court as an underdog. The Owls have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight days. And in their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3 point range, FAU has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Old Dominion allowed the Blazers to make 51.1% of their shots which was the highest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Monarchs did hold UAB to just four offensive rebounds in that contest — and they have then played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after not allowing more than 5 offensive rebounds in their last game. Old Dominion is 7th in the nation by limiting its opponents to rebounding just 21.7% of their missed shots. The Monarchs stay on the road where they are making only 39.6% of their shots which results in just 60.2 PPG. Old Dominion is 339th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 43.1% when playing away from home. The Monarchs have played 39 of their last 51 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 21 of their last 26 games when playing on a neutral court as the favorite. Old Dominion has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total in tournament action.
FINAL TAKE: The Monarchs are a strong defensive team that ranked 3rd in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 57th in the nation Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. FAU has an effective field goal percentage of 46% when playing away from home which is just 279th in the country. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the opening round of the Conference USA tournament between the Florida Atlantic Owls (675) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (676). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-10-20 |
Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Kentucky -4 |
Top |
62-71 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Kentucky Norse (616) minus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (615) in the Finals of the Horizon League conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Northern Kentucky (22-9) has won three of their last four games after their 80-69 win over Wisconsin-Green Bay last night as a 5.5-point favorite. Illinois-Chicago (18-16) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 73-56 upset win over Wright State yesterday as a 6-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NORSE MINUS THE POINTS: Northern Kentucky should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after winning a least two of their last three games. The Norse have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when playing their second game in three days. Northern Kentucky won the Horizon League tournament last season under head coach John Brannen who then took the vacated job at Cincinnati in the offseason. The Norse also lost their best player in Drew McDonald. But the program landed a veteran head coach in Darrin Horn who has a decade of head coaching experience at Western Kentucky and South Carolina along with long tenures as an assistant at Marquette and Texas. Horn could have waited for a more high profile job in his return to head coaching but he liked the opportunity at Northern Kentucky. The cupboard was not empty when it comes to talent with guards Jalen Tate and Tyler Sharpe along with forward Dantez Walton back from last season. Injuries have kept this big three from playing together often this season with Tate and Walton missing ten games and eleven games respectively this season. When Tate went down early this season, Walton raised his level of play to lead this team with talk of him perhaps being the Horizon League’s best player before he went down with an injury. But this core is healthy again and have played together for the last seven games. Northern Kentucky has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a favorite. Illinois-Chicago held the Raiders to just 28.3% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. But the Flames have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 after not allowing their last opponent to shoot better than 33% from the field. Illinois-Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. The Flames are one of the hottest teams in basketball — and they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games (and five of their last seven). But Illinois-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The Flames’ biggest weakness is being too loose with the basketball as they turn the ball over in 21.2% of their possessions when playing away from home which ranks 287th in the nation. The Norse have forced turnovers in 20.1% of their opponent’s possessions in their last ten games which is 81st best in the country over that span.
FINAL TAKE: Northern Kentucky will have the additional motivation tonight to avenge a 73-43 loss at home to Illinois-Chicago back on February 16th despite being a 10-point favorite in that game. 25* CBB Horizon League Conference Game of the Year with the Northern Kentucky Norse (616) minus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-09-20 |
St. Mary's v. BYU -3.5 |
Top |
51-50 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (894) minus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (893) in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: BYU (24-7) takes the court again tonight having won nine straight games after their 81-64 victory at Pepperdine back on February 29th as a 6.5-point favorite. Saint Mary’s (24-7) advanced to the semifinals of this tournament with their 89-82 victory over Pepperdine in double-overtime on Saturday as a 7-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory over a conference rival where they scored at least 80 points. The Cougars are an outstanding shooting basketball team — they are 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while leading the nation by making 42.0% of their shots from behind the arc. BYU made 53.1% of their shots in their victory over the Waves. That was the third straight game where the Cougars shot at least 48.4% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games. BYU has also scored at least 81 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in three straight games. The Cougars make 49.2% of their shots away from home which results in them scoring 77.1 PPG — and they lead the nation with a 42.4% shooting percentage from 3-point land when playing on the road. BYU also leads the West Coast Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.0% of their opponent’s possessions. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored. Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while the Gaels have played four straight games Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing at least three straight Overs. BYU has a field goal percentage of 50.4% — and Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 road games against teams who make at least 48% of their shots. The Gaels also allow their opponents to make 35.4% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing away from home. Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. The Gaels have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games played on a neutral court as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Saint Mary’s will be looking to avenge an 81-79 loss at BYU back on February 1st — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Game of the Year with BYU Cougars (894) minus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (893). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-08-20 |
North Dakota +6 v. South Dakota |
Top |
74-71 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the North Dakota Fighting Hawks (863) plus the points versus the South Dakota Coyotes (864) in the Quarterfinals of the Summit League conference tournament. THE SITUATION: North Dakota (12-17) has lost their last two games after losing at South Dakota last Saturday by a 77-67 score as a 7.5-point favorite. South Dakota (20-11) snapped a three-game losing streak with that victory. This game is being played on a neutral court in Sioux Falls.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: North Dakota made only 5 of their 10 free throw attempts in that game which is uncharacteristic for this team that ranks 22nd in the nation by making 76.6% of their free throws this season. The Fighting Hawks have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to shoot better than 53% of their free throws in their last game. This is a good shooting basketball team that ranks 25th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 52.4% when playing away from home on neutral courts or hostile environments. North Dakota is led by an All-League performer in guard Marlon Stewart. This team usually plays its best basketball in tournament situations. The Fighting Hawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 tournament contests — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in the Summit League conference tournament. Furthermore, North Dakota has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in March. Additionally, the Fighting Hawks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games played on a neutral court — and they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games on a neutral court as an underdog. South Dakota does nail 39.0% of their 3-pointers — but North Dakota has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who shoot at least 37% from 3-point land. The Coyotes shot 54.2% from the field in their victory last Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. But this South Dakota team shoots only 45.1% when playing any from home. While the Coyotes rank 9th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8%, that number drops to a 51.6% clip when they are playing away from home arena. South Dakota has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. The Coyotes win over the Fighting Hawks finished below the 155 point total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 7 games played with at least seven days of rest, South Dakota has failed to cover the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Coyotes swept the two regular-season games with North Dakota this season as they also defeated them on the road by an 82-68 score on February 8th. This is considered a semi-home game for South Dakota with it being played in Sioux Falls — but it is still 116 miles away from their home campus in Vermillion. Look for the Fighting Hawks give the Coyotes their biggest fight in this single-elimination contest. 25* CBB Summit League Game of the Year with the North Dakota Fighting Hawks (863) plus the points versus the South Dakota Coyotes (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-20 |
Murray State v. Belmont UNDER 141 |
Top |
75-76 |
Loss |
-107 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game between the Murray State Racers (751) and the Belmont Bruins (752). THE SITUATION: Murray State (23-8) reached the finals of this tournament with their 73-61 win over Austin Peay as a 1-point favorite yesterday. Belmont (25-7) joined them yesterday as they won their eleventh straight game with their 60-50 win over Eastern Kentucky as a 13.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral court in Evansville, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Racers have played 9 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Murray State is playing excellent defense right now after holding the Governors to just 39.3% shooting. The Racers have held their last five opponents to just 39.6% shooting from the field which has resulted in only 61.0 PPG. Moving forward, Murray State has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 12 games as an underdog, the Racers have played 9 of these games Under the Total. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Belmont has played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a victory over a conference opponent. They also have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Bruins made only 33.8% of their shots in that game — but they held Eastern Kentucky to just 29.9% shooting to win the game handily. Belmont has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 60 points. The Bruins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a defensive struggle between the top two defenses in the Ohio Valley Conference in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. Murray State has played 7 of their last 8 games after fifteen games into the season Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Belmont has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game between the Murray State Racers (751) and the Belmont Bruins (752). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-20 |
Utah State v. San Diego State UNDER 133 |
Top |
59-56 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game between the Utah State Aggies (741) and the San Diego State Aztecs (742). THE SITUATION: Utah State (25-8) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine games with their 89-82 win over Wyoming as a 15-point favorite yesterday. San Diego State (30-1) has won their last four games after suffering their first loss of the season with their 81-68 win over Boise State yesterday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies outlasted the Cowboys by shooting 56.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eleven games. Utah State has then played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread win. The Aggies have also played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while yesterday’s game flew Over the 136 point Total, Utah State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. San Diego State has played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 80 points. The Aztecs rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season. In their fifteen games away from home this year, San Diego State has held these opponents to just 39.9% shooting and only 60.9 PPG. The Aztecs have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total that were played on a neutral court. San Diego State has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in tournament action. And while Utah State makes 46.1% of their shots this season, the Aztecs have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams who shoot at least 455 from the field. The Aggies are outscoring their opponents by +12.7 PPG — but San Diego State has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Utah State hopes to avenge an 80-68 loss to San Diego State back on February 1st — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when motivated by revenge. The Aggies have also played 6 straight games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. Expect a lower scoring game between the top two defensive teams (in terms of Adjusted Efficiency) in the conference). 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game between the Utah State Aggies (741) and the San Diego State Aztecs (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-07-20 |
Kentucky +3.5 v. Florida |
Top |
71-70 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (615) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (616). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (24-6) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 81-73 upset loss at home to Tennessee despite being an 8.5-point favorite. Florida (19-11) has won two of their last three games after their 68-54 win at Georgia as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Kentucky allowed the Volunteers to make 52.8% of their shots which was not only the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage for them all season but also the worst defensive performance in their last twenty games. The Wildcats should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. Now Kentucky goes back on the road where they are 8-4 this season. The deeper analytics rank the Wildcats as the 6th best road team in the nation when looking at Adjusted Net Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win on the road against an SEC rival. The Gators have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after allowing no more than 60 points in their last contest. And while Florida has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Gators return home where they are 11-3 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games on their home court. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Gators are looking to avenge a 65-59 loss at Kentucky back on February 22nd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB SEC Underdog of the Year with the Kentucky Wildcats (615) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-20 |
VCU v. Davidson UNDER 137 |
Top |
65-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (861) and the Davidson Wildcats (862). THE SITUATION: VCU (18-12) has lost six of their last seven games with their 80-77 loss at home to Duquesne on Wednesday as a 5.5-point favorite. Davidson (15-14) has lost their last two contests after their 80-63 loss at Richmond on Wednesday as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: VCU has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread setback. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored
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03-06-20 |
Georgia Tech v. Clemson -4 |
Top |
65-62 |
Loss |
-108 |
17 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (854) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (853). THE SITUATION: Clemson (15-14) has lost two of their last three games with their 70-58 loss at Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Georgia Tech (16-14) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 73-57 win over Pittsburgh on Wednesday as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson looks to bounce-back from one of their worst games of the season against the Hokies. They made only 35.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. They also allowed Virginia Tech to make 54.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season. The Tigers allowed Florida State to make 50% of their shots in their previous game — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games after allowing two straight opponents to shoot at least 50% of their shots. Head coach Brad Brownell’s team has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with one or no days of rest. They return home where they are 11-5 this season with an average winning margin of +8.3 PPG. The Tigers play the 32nd stingiest defense in the nation when playing at home according to their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — they limit their guests to just 40.4% shooting which translates into only 62.6 PPG. Clemson should shoot better tonight — they have still made 47.9% of their shots over their last five games even after the difficult shooting effort against the Hokies. Clemson takes tons of 3s — but they do lead the ACC by making 53.2% of their shots inside the arc. Their efficiency inside the arc improves at home as they are making 56.5% of their 2-point shots which is the 26th best mark in the nation. Georgia Tech does hold their opponents to just 40.2% shooting — but the Tigers have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after fifteen games into the season when facing a team that does not allow their opponents to shoot better from 42% from the field. And while the Yellow Jackets shoot 45.3% from the field, Clemson has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. Georgia Tech may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least 15 points. They made 49.1% of their shots in what was the best shooting effort in their last four games. They also held the Panthers to 30.9% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last fourteen games. But this will be the Yellow Jackets third game since Saturday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing their third game in seven days. Additionally, Georgia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two straight games against conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least three in a row against ACC foes. The Yellow Jackets go back on the road where they are 6-8 this season. Georgia Tech has covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 road games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Jackets have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 road games with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range. Georgia Tech has two weaknesses that undermine the tough defense they play for head coach Josh Pastner. The Yellow Jackets foul too much to give their opponents freebies at the charity stripe — especially on the road. Georgia Tech ranks 315th in the nation with an opponent’s Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 44.4% when playing away from home. The Yellow Jackets also turn the ball over in 22.8% of their possessions which is 342nd in the nation — and Clemson forces turnovers in 19.9% of their opponent’s possessions which is a solid 105th best in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: Clemson will have revenge on their minds as well for this game after losing to Georgia Tech in Atlanta by a 68-59 score back on February 25th. Not only have the Tigers covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities to play with revenge but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when looking to avenge a loss where they did not score at least 60 points. 25* CBB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (854) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (853). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-05-20 |
UMKC v. Utah Valley OVER 136 |
Top |
61-51 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos (679) and the Utah Valley State Wolverines (680). THE SITUATION: UMKC (15-14) has won three games in a row with their 80-58 win over Chicago State last Saturday as a 20-point favorite. Utah Valley State (11-18) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday in a 73-66 loss at Cal-Baptist where they were 6-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 24 of their last 33 road games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Kangaroos have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. UMKC is hot with its shooting right now as they are making 48.5% of their shots over their last five contests. Now they go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. The Kangaroos have also played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog. Utah Valley State made only 43.9% of their shots last week in their loss to Cal-Baptist — that was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Wolverines have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. And while Utah Valley State has lost five of their last seven games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Over their last five games, they are still making 49.8% of their shots which has resulted in them averaging 76.8 PPG. They have also allowed 75.0 PPG over those last five games. They return home where they are scoring 74.9 PPG while allowing their opponents to average 70.4 PPG. Hosting this Kangaroos team will help their shooting as UMKC is 285th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.8% when they are playing on the road. Utah Valley State has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Wolverines have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as a favorite or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Utah Valley State makes only 30.3% of their shots from behind the arc — but the Kangaroos have played 14 of their last 17 games Ove the Total against opponents who do not shoot better than 31% from behind the 3-point line. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos (679) and the Utah Valley State Wolverines (680). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-05-20 |
Illinois State v. Drake -4.5 |
Top |
65-75 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Drake Bulldogs (712) minus the points versus the Illinois State Redbirds (711) in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (18-13) has lost three straight games after their 70-43 loss at home to Northern Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Illinois State (10-20) has won two of their last three games with their 71-60 upset win at Evansville as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. The Missouri Valley Conference tournament is played on a neutral court at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Drake made only 30.2% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark in their last twenty games. The Bulldogs made only 3 of their 21 shots from behind the arc (14.3%) in their loss to the Panthers — but the have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after a game where they did not make at least 20% of their 3-point attempts. Drake should shoot better tonight as they have made 36.3% of their shots from downtown in their last ten games away from home in games played on neutral courts and true road games. The Bulldogs should respond with a strong effort as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a double-digit loss which includes them covering the point spread in those last four opportunities. Drake has been a reliable team when playing on neutral courts as well as they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games on a neutral court — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on a neutral court when favored. Illinois State played their best defensive game of the season against the Purple Aces by holding them to just 32.8% shooting. But the Redbirds are only 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They stay on the road where they are just 1-14 this season with an average losing margin of -10.4 PPG. Illinois State allows their opponents to make 47.2% of their shots when playing away from home which results in them scoring 75.5 PPG. They also make just 42.2% of their shots in those fifteen games away from Normal. The Redbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral court. Illinois State is also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games when playing as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Drake will be looking to avenge a 57-53 upset loss at Illinois State where they were 1.5-point underdogs back on February 22nd. The Bulldogs play sound fundamental basketball as they made 52.9% of their shots inside the arc which is 2nd best in the MVC. They also hold their opponents to just 46.0% shooting inside the arc which is 2nd best in the Missouri Valley Conference. Illinois State may struggle to score as they make only 45.9% of their shots inside the arc which is 10th in the conference. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Drake Bulldogs (712) minus the points versus the Illinois State Redbirds (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-04-20 |
Georgetown v. Creighton -12.5 |
Top |
76-91 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (778) minus the points versus the Georgetown Hoyas (777). THE SITUATION: Creighton (22-7) saw their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 91-71 upset loss at St. John’s as a 5.5-point favorite. Georgetown (15-14) has lost four games in a row after their 66-63 loss at home against Xavier as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUEJAYS MINUS THE POINTS: Creighton played one of their worst games of the season after perhaps enjoying their most positive stint of the year during their previous five-game run. The Bluejays allowed the Red Storm to make 55% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last twenty-three games. They also made only 37.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. But Creighton has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 15 points. The Bluejays have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread defeat. Creighton has still won nine of their last eleven games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. The Bluejays return home where they are 16-1 this season with an average winning margin of +15.7 PPG. Creighton holds their opponents to just 39.7% shooting from the field — and they also make 49.5% of their shots at home which translates into 83.1 PPG. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on their home court with four victories all by at least 11 points. Creighton has also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 home games against teams who do not have a winning percentage better than 40% on the road. Additionally, the Bluejays have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 150 to 154.5 point range. This team ranks 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency according to KenPom — and the analytics also say they have the best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home. Creighton has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games as a favorite in the 6.5 to 12 point range — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Georgetown has been reduced to an eight-man rotation after four programs left the program in December. Head coach Patrick Ewing’s team will be furthered shorthanded tonight with Omer Yertseven and Mac McClung both doubtful with ankle and foot injuries. Those two players are the Hoyas’ top two possession and shot takers on the team — so their potential loss is devastating. As it is, Georgetown has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They are making only 41% of their shots over their last five games which have resulted in them scoring only 67.8 PPG. Now they go back on the road where they are just 4-6 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road. This team struggles in defending the perimeter as they rank 302nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they allow their home hosts to nail 37.5% of their shots from 3-point land which is 298th in the nation. Creighton is 5th in the nation by making 42.1% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. The Hoyas have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Furthermore, Georgetown has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Creighton will be motivated to avenge an 83-80 loss at Georgetown back on January 15th. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games when avenging a narrow loss by 3 points or less. 25* CBB Big East Game of the Year with the Creighton Bluejays (778) minus the points versus the Georgetown Hoyas (777). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-04-20 |
Texas-San Antonio v. Old Dominion OVER 143 |
Top |
59-84 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (801) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (802). THE SITUATION: UTSA (13-16) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 66-59 victory over UAB as a 3-point favorite. Old Dominion (12-17) also ended their two-game losing streak when they defeated Florida Atlantic on Sunday by an 85-80 score as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: UTSA has played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a victory at home against a conference rival. The Roadrunners have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, UTSA has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Toal after holding their last opponent to no more than 60 points — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Roadrunners held the Blazers to just 36.1% shooting — but now they go back on the road where they allow their home hosts to make 46.5% of their shots which results in them scoring 82.9 PPG. Defense is an issue for this team as they rank 290th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency along with just 11th in conference play. UTSA has played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Roadrunners have played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. UTSA is a solid offensive team that scores 77.8 PPG while averaging 65 shots per game along with 10 made 3-pointers per contest. Old Dominion has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who score at least 77 PPG. The Monarchs have all played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who average at least 62 shots per game — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who make at least 8 shots from behind the arc per game. Old Dominion committed only eight personal fouls in their win over the Owls on Sunday with FAU getting whistled for 19 personal fouls — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after being called for at least 10 personal fouls than their opponent in their last game. The Monarchs have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games against Conference USA foes. Now this team stays at home where they are 9-4 this season. Old Dominion has played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% on the road. The Monarchs have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who are winning 40-49% of their games this season.
FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion will be looking to avenge an 85-81 loss at home to UTSA back on February 6th — and the Monarchs have played 18 of their last 21 home games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (801) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-03-20 |
Purdue v. Iowa -5 |
Top |
77-68 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (648) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (647). THE SITUATION: Iowa (20-9) has won three of their last four games with their 77-68 victory at home against Penn State as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (15-14) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 57-49 win at against Indiana where they were 6.5-point favorites on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa should build off their momentum as they are 7-3-3 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. The Hawkeyes stay at home where they are 14-1 this season with an average winning margin of +14.2 PPG. Iowa makes 47% of their shots on their home court which has resulted in them scoring 81.7 PPG. The Hawkeyes are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, Iowa is 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 home games when favored — and they are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Hawkeyes rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. And while the Boilermakers launch 21 shots from behind the arc this season, Iowa has covered the point spread in 8 straight home games who take at least 21 shots from 3-point land per game. Purdue played their best defensive game of the season last week by limiting the Hoosiers to just 25.4% shooting from the field. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road after a victory at home against a Big Ten rival. Purdue has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And while the Boilermakers are 14-4 at home this season, they are just 4-10 when playing on the road. They are making just 37.4% of their shots on the road which has resulted in only 60.0 PPG. Purdue makes only 28.1% of their 3-pointers and just 43.1% of their shots inside the arc on the road which ranks 318th and 335th in the nation. Their 42.8% effective field goal percentage on the road is just 338th in the country. These struggles with shooting the basketball have contributed to the Boilermakers going just 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 road games — and they are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. Purdue has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. The Boilermakers defeated Indiana despite them making only 37.5% of their shots. Purdue has a low 39.7% field goal percentage over their last five games — it will be difficult to keep up with this Iowa team that is highly efficient on offense.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa will be looking to avenge a brutal 104-68 loss at Purdue back on February 5th. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (648) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (647). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-03-20 |
Nets v. Celtics -6 |
Top |
129-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (504) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (503). THE SITUATION: Boston (41-18) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 111-110 upset loss at home to Houston as a 2-point favorite. Brooklyn (26-33) has lost their last four games after their 116-113 loss at Miami on Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston made only 39% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last twenty-five games. The Celtics should respond with a strong effort as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread defeat. They stay at home where they are 23-6 this season with an average winning margin of +9.6 PPG. The Celtics should shoot better tonight as they are making 47.3% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 116.6 PPG. Boston has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Celtics may be undermined tonight with a flu bug hitting the locker room — Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart are listed as questionable after missing practice yesterday. But Boston will get Kemba Walker back after he missed the last five games with a knee injury. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Boston has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as the favorite. Brooklyn may be without Garrett Temple who is questionable with a shoulder injury — and they will be without Kyrie Irving for the rest of the season with his shoulder injury. The Nets stay on the road where they are 10-20 with an average losing margin of -3.6 PPG. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games as an underdog. The Nets have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when facing an opponent that is winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last 13 games against fellow Atlantic Division opponents, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread 9 times.
FINAL TAKE: Boston will also be motivated to avenge a 112-107 upset loss at Brooklyn back on November 29th. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge against their opponents. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (504) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-02-20 |
Idaho State v. Weber State OVER 145 |
Top |
78-70 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (865) and the Weber State Wildcats (866). THE SITUATION: Idaho State (6-20) has lost twelve straight games after their 89-76 loss at home to Portland State as a 4-point underdog last Thursday. Weber State (11-17) has lost three of their last four games after their 89-83 upset loss to Portland State as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by double-digits. Idaho State has also played 7 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bengals have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing at least two in a row — and they have played 18 of their last 22 games Over the Total after losing at least fifteen of their last twenty games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to nail 50.7% of their shots which has produced 74.5 PPG. Idaho State has played 6 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Bengals have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog. Weber State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and this includes them playing four straight Overs after a victory. Furthermore, the Wildcats have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. Weber State stays at home where they are scoring 80.8 PPG on 49.4% shooting from the field. The Wildcats have played 5 straight home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. Furthermore, the Over is 10-4-1 in Weber State’s last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% overall.
FINAL TAKE: Idaho State is just 318th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 347th in the country by allowing their opponents to make 56.0% of their shots inside the arc. The Bengals have a defensive field goal percentage of 48.3% — and the Wildcats have played 15 of their last 20 home games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Weber State is 3rd in the Big Sky Conference with a 53.3% of their shots inside the arc — they should score plenty of 2-pointers against this Idaho State team. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (865) and the Weber State Wildcats (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-29-20 |
Magic v. Spurs OVER 221 |
Top |
113-114 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (559) and the San Antonio Spurs (560). THE SITUATION: Orlando (23-32) has won three straight games with their 136-125 win over Minnesota last night as an 8-point favorite. San Antonio (24-33) has lost their last two games with their 109-103 loss at home to Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 7-0-1 in the Magic’s last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is also 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Orlando has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last five games. Head coach Steve Clifford has found a five-man combination that is finally jumpstarting what had been a stagnant offense. Markelle Fultz, Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Vucevic entered the week averaging 110.1 points per 100 possessions in the 177 minutes they have played together. In the three games the Magic have played since, Orlando has averaged 127 PPG while making 49.4%, 49.0% and then 54.1% of their shots. But the problem for that grouping is their defense as they had allowed their opponents to score at an 111.8 points per 100 possession clip in those 177 minutes entering last Monday’s game. The Magic have allowed their last three opponents to average 119.3 PPG with a field goal percentage of 47.0%. All three games this week finished Over the Total — and Orlando has played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. In their last five games, the Magic are scoring 120.6 PPG on 47.4% shooting — and they are surrendering 118.1 PPG on 47.1% shooting. Now they go back on the road where the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games — and the Over is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games as an underdog. Additionally, while this is Orlando’s sixth game in the last two weeks, they have played 15 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when playing no more than their sixth game in fourteen days. San Antonio held the Mavericks to just a 41.9% shooting percentage on Wednesday in that loss which was the best defensive effort in their last twelve games. The Over is 6-1-1 in the Spurs’ last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, San Antonio has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. And while San Antonio has lost and failed to cover the point spread in their last two contests, they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after suffering two straight losses — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. The Spurs defensive effort on Wednesday was a surprise because they have still allowed their last five opponents to make 48.8% of their shots which has resulted in 115.4 PPG. They stay at home for this game where they are scoring 113.3 PPG on 46.6% shooting while allowing their guests to score 112.4 PPG. San Antonio has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 20 home games Over the Total as a favorite. The Spurs have also played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while San Antonio has launched at least 91 shots in three straight games, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after taking at least 90 shots in two straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: Orlando averages 89 shots per game this season (while taking at least 89 shots in seven straight contests) — and the Spurs have played 24 of their last 36 games Over the Total against teams that average at least 88 shots per game. The Spurs allow 114.5 PPG this season — and the Magic have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 110 PPG. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (559) and the San Antonio Spurs (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-29-20 |
Michigan State v. Maryland UNDER 138 |
Top |
78-66 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (705) and the Maryland Terrapins (706). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (19-9) has won two straight games with their 78-70 win at home over Iowa as a 9.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Maryland (23-5) has won ten of their last eleven contests with their 74-73 win at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans have seen the Under go a decisive 39-16-3 in their last 58 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a victory over a Big Ten rival. Michigan State has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Now Sparty goes back on the road where they are just 8-6 this season while making only 43.6% of their shots which is translating into just 70.2 PPG. Michigan State sees their effective field goal percentage of 53.9% drop to a 50.3% mark when they are playing away from their home at the Breslin Center in East Lansing — that ranks 91st in the nation. But the Spartans’ outstanding defense does travel as they hold their home hosts to just 38.7% shooting which results in only 67.6 PPG. The Under is 14-6-1 in their last 21 games on the road — and the Under is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Under is 22-8-1 in Michigan State’s last 31 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, in the Spartans’ last 13 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, Michigan State has seen 11 of these games finish Under the Total. Maryland allowed the Golden Gophers to make 45.6% of their shots on Wednesday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last eight contests. The Terrapins have a bad habit of starting slowly which requires them to dig themselves out of big holes — they had to rally from a 16-point halftime deficit to defeat Minnesota. The Terrapins average only 33.4 points in the first half this season with that number dropping to 31.8 points in the first 20 minutes in conference games. They are making only 43% of their shots at home with an effective field goal percentage of 49.1% which ranks 243rd in the nation. Overall, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the season ranks 35th in the nation — but that number plummets to 73rd in the country when they are playing on their home court in College Park. But Maryland holds their guests to just 36.7% shooting which results in a mere 59.8 PPG when they are playing at home. The Terrapins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. Maryland has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These are two of the best defensive teams in the nation with the Spartans and Terrapins ranking 13th and 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency respectively. Maryland holds their opponents to just 39.1% shooting — and Sparty has played 8 straight games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or less. And while Michigan State out-rebounds their opponents by +7.6 RPG, the Terrapins have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against opponents who out-rebound their opponents by at least +7.0 RPG. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (705) and the Maryland Terrapins (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-20 |
Hornets v. Raptors -13.5 |
Top |
99-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (530) minus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (529). THE SITUATION: Toronto (42-16) looks to bounce-back from their 108-97 upset loss at home to Milwaukee on Tuesday as a 1-point favorite. Charlotte (20-38) snapped a two-game losing streak n Wednesday with their 107-101 upset win over New York as a 2-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS MINUS THE POINTS: Toronto only made 35.2% of their shots on Tuesday in what was the lowest shooting effort in their last twenty-three games against the outstanding Bucks defense. The Raptors has still won seventeen of their last nineteen games and they should respond with a strong effort tonight. Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss at home by at least 10 points. They did play very well on the defensive end of the court as they limited the Bucks to just 38.1% shooting room the field. The Raptors limited Indiana to just a 32.6% field goal percentage in their previous game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing their last two opponents to shoot better than 39% from the field. Toronto named just 18 of their 52 shots from behind the arc against Milwaukee for a 34.6% mark which is a bit below their 37.6% shooting percentage from 3-point land this season. They should fare better tonight against this Hornets team that has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 road games against teams who are making at least 36% of their 3-pointers. The Raptors stay at home where they are 23-8 this season with an average winning margin of +9.0 PPG. They are making 47% of their shots at home which has translated into 116.5 PPG. Toronto has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. The Raptors have also over the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%. Charlotte has won four of their last six games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread 24 of their last 34 games after winning four or five of their last six games. In their victory over the Knicks, they allowed them to make 50.6% of their shots which was after they allowed the Pacers to shoot 57% from the field in their previous game. The Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. Charlotte ranks 26th in the NBA in Defensive Rating this season as they allow 113.0 points per 100 possessions. The Hornets will also be without Malik Monk who has suspended for violating the league’s anti-drug program. Monk was scoring 17.0 PPG over their last thirteen games while making 35% of his shots from behind the arc during that span. Charlotte goes back on the road where they are just 11-21 with an average losing margin of -9.7 PPG. They are allowing their opponents to make 47.8% of their shots which has translated into 109.7 PPG. The Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Additionally, Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Toronto will not be at full strength as well tonight with Marc Gasol out and both Norman Powell and Serge Ibaka questionable with injuries. But they still have Pascal Siakam, Kule Lowery, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and the outstanding depth that this organization has compiled on this roster. The issue is whether the Raptors are being asked to lay too many points. I am wary of laying over double-digits in the NBA but I do look closely at team trends to evaluate the personalities of teams regarding how they evaluate situations like this. Toronto has covered the point spread in all 4 of their games this season when they have been laying at least 10 points. Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of the 13 circumstances this season where they were double-digit underdogs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting 12.5 or more points. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Toronto Raptors (530) minus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-20 |
Georgia Southern v. Georgia State -5.5 |
Top |
79-70 |
Loss |
-108 |
19 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (852) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (851). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (18-11) has lost two straight games after their 86-78 loss at Texas State last Saturday as a 4-point underdog. Georgia Southern (17-12) snapped their two-game losing streak on Saturday with their 81-61 upset victory at UT-Arlington as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia State should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss on the road. The Panthers have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 85 points in their last game. Now after being on a road underdog in their last two games, they return home where they are 11-1 this season with an average winning margin of +16.9 PPG. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after being an underdog in two straight games. The Panthers score a healthy 84.2 PPG on their home court while limiting their guests to just 37.9% shooting from the field which has translated into only 67.3 PPG. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 straight home games with the Total set in the 150 to 159.5 point range. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games as a favorite of no more than 6 points. Georgia Southern made 52.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was the best shooting effort in their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they scored at least 80 points in their last game. They also held the Mavericks to just 31.8% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last eleven games. But the Eagles have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of the last 7 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset win against a Sun Belt Conference foe. Furthermore, Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a double-digit win over a Sun Belt rival. Now the Eagles stay on the road where they are just 7-9 this season where they are making only 42.7% of their shots from the field. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the Georgia State Panthers (852) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (851). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-20 |
Arizona v. USC UNDER 140 |
Top |
48-57 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (651) and the USC Trojans (652). THE SITUATION: Arizona (19-8) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 73-72 upset loss at home to Oregon as a 5.5-point favorite. USC (19-9) has lost their last two games with their 75-69 loss at Utah as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats allowed the Ducks to shoot 42.6% from the field which was the best shooting effort from an opponent in their last four games. Arizona should tighten up on defense — they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Wildcats rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that mark rises to them being the 5th best team in the nation when playing on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Arizona holds their home hosts to just 39.8% shooting which is resulting in them allowing only 67.7 PPG in their eleven road games. The Wildcats make only 28.2% of their 3-pointers on the road which is 313rd in the nation — and their effective field goal percentage of 44.3% on the road ranks 318th. Arizona has played 4 of there last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as the favorite. USC has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Trojans have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a point spread defeat. USC allowed the Utes to make 48.2% of their shots on Sunday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Trojans have the 40th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that ranking has improved to 31st best in the country in that metric over their last ten games. USC has held their last five opponents to just 37.6% shooting from the field and now they return home after playing their last two games on the road. The Trojans have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. USC is 11-2 at home while holding their guests to scoring 64.5 PPG on 39.5% shooting from the field. But USC only makes 43.2% of their shots at home given their 47.5% shooting percentage inside the arc which is 285th in the nation. The Under is 39-18-1 in the Trojans’ last 58 home games — and they have played 7 storage home games Under the Total in February. Furthermore, the Trojans have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: USC will be looking to avenge an 85-80 loss at Arizona back on February 6th. The Trojans have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (651) and the USC Trojans (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-20 |
Grizzlies v. Rockets UNDER 237.5 |
Top |
112-140 |
Loss |
-104 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (513) and the Houston Rockets (514). THE SITUATION: Memphis (28-29) has lost three straight games after their 124-97 loss at Los Angeles against the Clippers on Monday as an 11.5-point underdog. Houston (37-20) has won four straight games with their 123-112 win over New York on Monday as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 10 points — and this includes them playing four of these last five situations Under the Total. Memphis has also played 4 straight games Under the Total both after a straight-up loss and after a point spread setback. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Memphis has been playing short-handed with Jaren Jackson, Jr., Grayson Allen, and the recently acquired Justise Winslow all injured. They made only 41.6% of their shots on Monday which was the lowest shooting effort in their last five games. Brandon Clarke also suffered a hip injury in that game which will keep him out for a couple of weeks which further hampers the Grizzlies offensive attack. Memphis has had the fourth-worst offense since the trade deadline with the reason seeming to be that when they dealt away Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill, they lost their two most active shooters from behind the arc. With Kyle Anderson sliding into the starting lineup despite not being a long-range shooting threat, opposing defenses are more comfortable to pack the paint to thwart Ja Morant’s driving lanes while also providing more help in double-teaming Jonas Valanciunas’ post-ups. And it is not helping matters that Dillon Brooks is in the midst of a big shooting slump: over his last nine games, he is shooting only 28.5% from the field while making just 17.1% of his shots from behind the arc. Now the Grizzlies play their fourth straight game on the road — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing their last three games on the road. Memphis has also played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Grizzlies are scoring 111.7 PPG on the road this year which is not very much when considering tonight’s Total is in the high-230s. Memphis has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the number set at 230 or higher. And while the Grizzlies are averaging 47.2% shooting this season while holding their opponents to a 45.5% field goal percentage, they are only making 45.4% of their shots over their last five games — but they are limiting their opponents to a 43.7% field goal percentage. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Rockets have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a game where at least 230 combined points were scored. With the trade of Clint Capela, this team has completely embraced small-ball with them launching even more 3-pointers than ever. But Houston has also played a bit better on the defensive end of the court as they rank 12th in the league in Defensive Rating in their ten games since the All-Star break as compared to their 15th ranking in that metric overall this season. Over their last five games, the Rockets are holding their opponents to 109.2 PPG which is -5.0 PPG below their season average. Houston has played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total with the number set at 230 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Russell Westbrook is listed as probable for tonight with his thumb injury but Eric Gordon is questionable with a knee injury — and his absence will impact the Rockets’ 3-point shooting. Houston will be looking to avenge a 121-110 upset loss in Memphis back on January 14th — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 27 of their last 39 encounters in Houston Under the Total. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (513) and the Houston Rockets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-20 |
Bucks v. Raptors OVER 230 |
Top |
108-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (577) and the Toronto Raptors (578). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (49-8) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine games with their 137-134 win at Washington last night as a 12.5-point favorite. Toronto (42-15) has won their last two games as well as seventeen of their last eighteen contests with their 127-81 victory Indiana on Sunday as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played 7 straight games Over the Total after a win on the road by 3 points or less. Milwaukee has also played 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. And the Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a game where they allowed at least 130 points. Milwaukee made 57% of their shots against the Wizards which the third straight game that they made at least 50% of their shots since the All-Star break — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. The Bucks are shooting 49% from the field over their last five games which has generated 123.2 PPG. They stay on the road where they are making 47.9% of their shots which is resulting in 118.6 PPG. The Over is 19-7-1 in Milwaukee’s last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Raptors make 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Bucks have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who make at least 36% of their shots from 3-point land. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after a win on their home court. The Raptors have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 7 games after a double-digit win, Toronto has played 5 of these games Over the Total. The Raptors held the Pacers to just 32.6% shooting which was the best defensive effort of their season. They also made 51.1% of their shots in that game after nailing 52.5% of their shots in their previous game against Phoenix — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after shooting at least 50% from the field in two straight contests. They stay at home where they are 23-7 while making 47.5% of their shots which is producing 117.3 PPG. Toronto has won nine straight games at home while averaging 125.1 PPG in those contests on 51.9% shooting from the field and a 41.3% clip from behind the arc. The Raptors have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with the number set at 230 or higher. Toronto has also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog. And while the Bucks average 91 shots per game in their up-tempo offense, the Raptors have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 88 shots per game.
FINAL TAKE: The Raptors will not be at full strength with Norman Powell and Marc Gasol both out with injuries — and that will hurt them more on the defensive end of the court rather than with their scoring. These two teams last played back on November 2nd when the Bucks won on their home court by a 115-105 score. Toronto has played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (577) and the Toronto Raptors (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-20 |
TCU v. Iowa State -2.5 |
Top |
59-65 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (606) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (605). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (11-16) has lost two straight games after their 87-57 loss at home to Texas Tech as a 5-point underdog on Saturday. TCU (15-12) has won two of their last three games with their 67-60 upset victory over West Virginia as a 5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State played one of their worst games of the season on Saturday against one of the hottest teams in the nation in that Red Raiders team. The Cyclones shot just 35.8% from the field which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last ten games. Iowa State also allowed Texas Tech to make 57.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last twenty-two contests. The Cyclones have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Iowa State suffered a terrible blow a few weeks ago with the season-ending injury to their best player, Tyrese Halliburton. Yet Steve Promm’s team immediately responded with an 81-52 blowout win at home against Texas in their first game without Halliburton before losing at Kansas and then at home to the Red Raiders which are two teams that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks in the top-15 in the nation according to his numbers. This team should respond with a strong effort in this winnable game. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points to a fellow Big 12 rival. And while Iowa State has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after failing to cover the point spread in three of the last four games. The Cyclones are 10-5 at home with an average winning margin of +7.3 PPG while limiting their opponents to just 41.2% shooting from the field. They have covered 4 straight home games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored by up to 6 points. And in their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, Iowa State has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. TCU made 44.4% of their shots in their upset win over the Mountaineers which was the best shooting mark in their last eight games. They also held West Virginia to just 40.3% shooting which was also the best defensive effort in their last twelve games. But the Horned Frogs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road after a win over a conference opponent. Additionally, TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Now the Horned Frogs go back on the road where they are just 2-8 this season. While TCU ranks 90th in the nation in Net Adjusted Efficiency overall, they plummet to 206th in the nation with their Net Adjusted Efficiency when playing on the road. They rank 351st in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 58.2% when playing on the road — their home hosts are making 47.4% of their shots overall which has resulted in 70.6 PPG. They also have an effective field goal percentage of 42.4% on the road which is 343rd in the nation while making only 37.5% of their shots which is producing just 56.9 PPG. The Horned Frogs are also making only 38.8% of their shots over their last five games which is why they are averaging just 55.8 PPG. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road — and they ave failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games on the road against teams who are winning at least 60 % of their games at home. The Horned Frogs are also just 6-19-2 ATS in the last 27 road games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Jamie Dixon only uses eight players in his rotation — and TCU may be without starting guard Francisco Farabello who is questionable with a concussion. This has been a disappointing season for the Cyclones — and their postseason aspirations are likely gone with Halliburton’s injury — but look for them to play a good game after their embarrassing loss to Texas Tech. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (606) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-20 |
Suns v. Jazz -8 |
Top |
131-111 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (572) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (571). THE SITUATION: Utah (36-20) has lost two straight games after their 120-110 upset loss at home to Houston as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Phoenix (23-34) has won two of their last three games after their 112-104 win at Chicago on Saturday as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah has suffered two straight upset losses as their setback on Saturday was preceded by a 113-104 upset loss at home to San Antonio as a 7-point favorite last Friday. The Jazz should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games are an upset loss at home by at least 10 points. Utah has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 40 of their last 62 home games after a loss at home by at least 10 points. The Jazz allowed the Rockets to make 48.9% of their shots in that contest on Saturday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven games. Utah stays at home for the fourth straight game where they are holding their guests to just a 44.5% field goal percentage which has translated into only 105.0 PPG — so they should play better on defense tonight. The Jazz are still 20-7 on their home court where they are making 47.8% of their shots which is producing 111.2 PPG. Utah has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range. Over their last five contests, they are shooting a healthy 48.9% of their shots. And in their last 20 games when playing with one day of rest, the Jazz have coved the point spread 14 times. Phoenix is likely due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. That was the thirteenth straight game where Phoenix played a game where at least 216 combined points were scored — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Now the Suns stay on the road for the third straight games where they are 12-16 while allowing their home hosts to score 114.2 PPG on 47.4% shooting from the field. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Additionally, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Phoenix may be just what the doctor ordered for this Utah team that has dominated this series as of late. The Jazz have won the last eight meetings between these two teams along with fifteen of their last sixteen encounters with the Suns. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with Phoenix while also going 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 opportunities to host the Suns in Salt Lake City. The Jazz won the last showdown between these two teams back on October 28th by a 96-95 score in Phoenix — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when looking to avenge a narrow loss by 3 points or less. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year with the Utah Jazz (572) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (571). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-20 |
Oklahoma State v. Kansas OVER 134.5 |
Top |
58-83 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (14-13) has won three of their last four games after their 83-66 win over Oklahoma on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. Kansas (24-3) has won twelve straight games with their 64-61 upset win at Baylor as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the total after a straight-up win. Oklahoma State has also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games against fellow Big 12 opponents. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. They also have played 6 of tiger last 9 road games as a double-digit underdog. The Cowboys will be challenged by the outstanding defense that this Jayhawks team plays. Kansas is limiting their opponents to averaging just 60.7 PPG — but Oklahoma State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against opponents who do not allow more than 64 PPG. The Cowboys rank 98th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this season — but they have the 46th best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency mark over their last ten games. Kansas has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a narrow victory by 3 points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Jayhawks victory over the Bears fell below the 131 point total, they have then played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Kansas has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. Kansas returns home where they are 12-1 this season while making 49.6% of their shots which is resulting in 78.7 PPG. The Jayhawks have the 9th best offense in the nation based on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have the 2nd highest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. Kansas makes 58.3% of their shots inside the arc when playing at home which is the 11th best mark in the country. Oklahoma State is vulnerable on the defensive end of the court as they rank 9th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they allow their home hosts to shoot 50% of their shots inside the arc on the road which is the 138th worst mark in the nation. The Over is 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Jayhawks have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 18 of their last 28 home games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. Kansas has also played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. And while the Cowboys hold their opponents to 40% shooting this season, the Jayhawks have played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against opponents who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 27th by a 65-50 score. Oklahoma State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on their home court. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-20 |
Hawks v. 76ers -8.5 |
Top |
112-129 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (564) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (563). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (35-22) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 119-98 loss at Milwaukee as a 9.5-point underdog. Atlanta (17-41) has won their last two games after their 111-107 win over Dallas on Saturday as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia made only 35% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting percentage for them all season. They also allowed the Bucks to make 52.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six contests. The 76ers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road by at least 20 points. Philadelphia will not be at full strength for this game with Ben Simmons out with a back injury and Tobias Harris dealing with a knee — but that opens up space for Joel Embiid to lead the way without any conflicts with Simmons. Embiid scored 39 points while adding 16 rebounds last Thursday in an overtime victory over Brooklyn in the last opportunity he had to lead the team without Simmons being available to play. The Sixers return home where they are 26-2 this season with an average winning margin of +10.0 PPG. Philly makes 48.3% of their shots at home which results in them averaging 111.9 PPG. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Furthermore, Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as a favorite — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams who are not making at least 40% of their shots on the road. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory on their home court. The Hawks are also 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games after a point spread victory. Atlanta has covered the point spread in two straight games but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while they have scored at least 105 points in eight straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after scoring at least 105 points in three straight contests. The Hawks go back not he road where they are just 6-24 while being outscored by -13.3 PPG. Atlanta allows their home hosts to make 48.6% of their shots with them averaging 122.2 PPG. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 220s. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: Clint Capela has yet to make his debut for the Hawks after being traded over from Houston — he is dealing with a heel injury and might not play this season. Atlanta is also without DeAndre Bembry who is out with an abdominal injury. Philadelphia is looking to avenge a 127-117 upset loss in Atlanta back on January 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 48 home games when playing with revenge. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Philadelphia 76ers (564) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-20 |
Stanford v. Washington State UNDER 135 |
Top |
75-57 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (865) and the Washington State Cougars (866). THE SITUATION: Stanford (17-9) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 72-64 upset win at Washington as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. Washington State (14-13) has lost three straight games with their 66-57 upset loss to California as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal has seen the Under go 8-3-2 in their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Stanford has also played 8 of their last 11 games after an upset loss. The Cardinal is one of the best defensive teams in the nation as they rank 6th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They hold their hosts to just 42% shooting from inside the arc which helps them post an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.5% — both those numbers are 3rd best in the nation for teams playing on the road. The Under is 9-4-2 in Stanford’s last 15 games on the road — and the Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better when playing at home. Furthermore, the Under is 3-0-1 in the Cardinal’s last 4 road games as a favorite — and they have also seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games as a favorite. Washington State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Cougars have played 4 straight games Under the Total after losing two in a row — and they have played a decisive 36 of their last 51 games at home Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. They made only 29.8% of their shots against the Golden Bears after shooting just 28.6% from the field in their previous game against USC. Over their last five games, Washington State is shooting just 35.8% which has resulted in only 63.8 PPG. They stay at home where they are making just 40.9% of their shots while ranking 302nd in the nation with a 46.4% field goal percentage inside the arc. Overall, the Cougars have an effective field goal percentage of 46.6% when playing at home which is the 313th lowest mark in the nation. Moving forward, the Cougars have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: To make matters worse, they may be without their point guard Isaac Bonton who is questionable with a leg injury. Boston leads the team in touches when he is on the court while ranking second in shots — so the Washington State offense will likely suffer if he is not able to play or if he is hindered with his leg. 25* CBB Sunday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (865) and the Washington State Cougars (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-20 |
Southern Utah v. Weber State OVER 136 |
Top |
71-82 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Southern Utah Thundercats (771) and the Weber State Wildcats (772). THE SITUATION: Southern Utah (14-12) has lost three straight games after their 68-66 loss at Northern Colorado as a 7-point underdog on Thursday. Weber State (10-16) has lost their last three games with their 77-63 loss at Montana State as a 5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Thunderbirds have played 7 of their last 10 games over the total after a loss on the road by 3 points or less. They also have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Southern Utah has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing three straight games to Big Sky opponents. Now the Thunderbirds go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Southern Utah has not made more than three shots from behind the arc in two straight games — but they have then played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total after failing to make more than three shots from 3-point range in two straight games. They now face a Wildcats team that is 328th in the nation by allowing their opponents to nail 37.3% of their shots from downtown. Weber State allows their opponents to make 45.1% of their shots this season — and the Thunderbirds have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make at least 45% of their shots. Southern Utah has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games. Weber State has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. The Wildcats have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after losing two straight games. They return home where they are 7-4 while making 49.4% of their shots which is generating 80.5 PPG. Weber State has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as an underdog. The Wildcats’ play on the defensive end of the court has waned as of late. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.9% of their shots which has resulted in them averaging 71.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah will be looking to avenge a 75-65 upset loss at home to Weber State back on January 30th. The Thunderbirds have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between Southern Utah Thundercats (771) and the Weber State Wildcats (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-20 |
76ers v. Bucks -8.5 |
Top |
98-119 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (541). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (47-8) has won six of their last seven games with their 126-106 win at Detroit on Thursday as a 13-point favorite. Philadelphia (35-31) has won their last four games with their 112-104 win over Brooklyn on Thursday as an 8-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee made 50.8% of their shots in racing out to a 29-point lead going into halftime against the hapless Pistons — but they still allowed Detroit to make 48.2% of their shots which was the second highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seventeen games. The Bucks allowed Indiana to shoot 52.3% from the field in the last game before the All-Star break in a game where Giannis Antetokounmpo did not play with the birth of his child. Expect a better defensive effort from this team tonight. As it is, Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Now this team returns home for the first time since February 10th — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Milwaukee is 25-3 on their home court where they are outscoring their guests by +13.1 PPG while limiting them to just 41.4% shooting from the field. The Bucks also make 48.5% of their shots on their home court which translate into 121.5 PPG. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Philadelphia played their best defensive game of the season on Thursday as they held the Nets to just 35.3% shooting. Joel Embiid led the way with 39 points along with 16 rebounds and later proclaimed to be the “best player in the world” after the game. But the 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning at least four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. This is a team where the sum of the parts are not as powerful as the individual pieces suggest. Chemistry and team cohesion are significant concerns with Embiid and Ben Simmons battle for the claim of being the leader of this team. Is it a coincidence that Embiid has a big game on Thursday with Simmons out with a back issue? Is it then a coincidence that Embiid boasts he is the “best player in the game?” Are you even the best player on your own team, big guy? The frustrating thing about Embiid is that he will then try to prove himself by launching 3 after 3 — and that is not close to the most effective way for his skills on offense to be utilized. The Sixers have, at times, played their best ball with Embiid out and Simmons leading the way along with Al Horford manning the post. Unfortunately, Horford has been a disappointment when playing on the court at the same time with Embiid with that lineup having one too many big men on the court. Now after playing their last four games at home, Philadelphia goes back on the road where these chemistry issues get exposed while the bench players do not perform at such a high level — and Simmons is listed as probable for this game which reignites the on-floor conflict with Embiid. The 76ers are just 9-19 on the road with an average losing margin of -5.0 PPG. Philly is just 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Furthermore, the 76ers are just 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Philadelphia thrives on the lesser teams in the league — but they are 4-12-1 ATS in the last 17 games against teams with a winning record and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Sixers will be looking to avenge a 112-101 loss at Milwaukee back on February 6th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Milwaukee to face the Bucks. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-21-20 |
Grizzlies +11 v. Lakers |
Top |
105-117 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (529) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (530). THE SITUATION: Memphis (28-27) saw their two-game winning streak end last night with their 129-125 loss at Sacramento as a 1-point underdog. Los Angeles (41-12) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 120-116 victory on overtime in Denver as a 3-point favorite nine days ago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis was sluggish on defense last night in their first game back after the All-Star break. The Grizzlies allowed the Kings to make 50.6% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. Yet they did rally from a 15-point deficit in the 4th quarter to almost steal that game. Despite that effort, Memphis has been playing better defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just 42.0% shooting which has resulted in 111.6 PPG as opposed to their 114.7 PPG/45.4% defensive marks for the season. The Grizzlies should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, Memphis has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. And in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in all 5 games. Memphis stays on the road where they are making a healthy 47.0% of their shots and where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. The Grizzlies also tend to raise their level of play against good teams as they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles may suffer from the rust that Memphis did last night after the long All-Star break. Lack of focus has been an issue for this team in the dog days of February — the Nuggets were the third team in their last four contests to make at least 50% of their shots. The Lakers have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.8% of their shots which has resulted in 111.8 PPG. Los Angeles has been winning high-scoring games as of late — they have scored at least 111 points in seven straight contests. But the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 home games after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. The biggest Achilles’ heel for this team is the lack of a reliable second scorer after LeBron James. Even with Anthony Davis leading the way with James off the court, the Lakers are scoring only 101.8 points per 100 possessions which would rank more than -2.0 points per 100 possessions below the lowest team mark in the league. Overall, LA averages 113.4 points per 100 possessions with James playing a key role in that high level of efficiency. This makes the Lakers unreliable when asking them to cover double-digit point spreads. And while LA has covered the point spread as the favorite in their final two games before the All-Star break, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 57 of their last 95 home games after covering their last two games as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis is a serious contender to make the playoffs with the emergence of rookie superstar Ja Morant. The Grizzlies have a very nice foundation with him joining Jaren Jackson and Brandon Clarke for one of the best young trios of talent in the league — and head coach Taylor Jenkins has been outstanding in getting the most out of his talent. The Grizzlies fare well in expected higher-scoring games like this with that offensive talent. The Lakers average 114.7 PPG on 48.8% shooting — but Memphis has covered the point span in 17 of their last 25 games against teams who score at least 110 PPG and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams who make at least 46% of their shots. And while LA allows their opponents to score 107.3 PPG, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games against teams who allow at least 106 PPG. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Year with the Memphis Grizzlies (529) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-21-20 |
Wisc-Milwaukee +4.5 v. Oakland |
Top |
68-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (871) plus the points versus the Oakland Grizzlies (872). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (12-14) looks to rebound from their 94-90 upset loss to Wisconsin-Green Bay last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Oakland (10-17) has won their last two games with their 72-64 win over Youngstown State as a 4-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee allowed the Phoenix to make 56.9% of their shots last Saturday which was the worst defensive effort of the season. The Panthers should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a Horizon League rival. Milwaukee has also covered the point spread in a decisive 34 of their last 52 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots — and this includes them covering the point spread in three of these last four situations. Even after that defensive effort last week, the Panthers have held their last five opponents to just 40.4% shooting from the field. They go back on the road where they have won their last two contests — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 40 road games with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range. Milwaukee has also covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 road games after scoring at least 85 points in their last game — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Panthers are 2nd in the Horizon League by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions — and this is an area of weakness for the Grizzlies because they rank 7th in the conference by turning the ball over in 19.6% of their conference possessions. Milwaukee is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on their home court. They stay at home for the third straight game where they are getting outscored this season despite their 6-5 record. But the advanced metrics rank the Grizzlies as 308th in the nation in home-court advantage when it comes to net Adjusted Efficiency — and Milwaukee ranks 202nd in the nation in net Adjusted Efficiency when playing on the road. Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games against Horizon League opponents. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 home games against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after fifteen games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Oakland has also been an unreliable favorite as they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 47 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee plays at an up-tempo as they average 62 shots per game — and the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games against teams who average at least 62 shots per contest. 25* CBB Horizon League Underdog of the Year with the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (871) plus the points versus the Oakland Grizzlies (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-20 |
Bucks -13 v. Pistons |
Top |
126-106 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (501) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (502). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (46-8) returns to action after the All-Star break looking to bounce-back from a 118-111 loss at Indiana last Wednesday as a 1.5-point underdog. Detroit (19-38) stumbled into the All-Star break having lost four straight games with their 116-112 loss at Orlando as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee was without Giannis Antetokounmpo in that loss to the Pacers with him away from the team with the birth of his son. The Bucks made only 40.7% of their shots in that game which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last fifteen games. They also allowed Indiana to make 52.3% of their shots in that game which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage all season. Look for this team to make a statement tonight as they return rested and ready to make their push to reach the NBA Finals. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They are 21-5 on the road where they are outscoring their home hosts by +11.0 PPG. They are making 47.5% of their shots on the road which has resulted in 117.6 PPG. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as a favorite. Detroit is a mess who has fully embraced a complete rebuild after trading Andre Drummond at the trade deadline before dropping Reggie Jackson during the All-Star break who was snatched up by the Clippers. The Pistons are also without Blake Griffin for the rest of the season with his knee injury. And while the focus for this organization is to get younger, they are without one of the foundational pieces in Luke Kennard who has been out for almost two months with his knee injury. Head coach Dwane Casey is left with a roster that looks closer to a G-League group than an NBA team. This collection of players was making only 43.8% of their shots over their last five games — even with Jackson in the mix — which was resulting in just 99.4 PPG. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with at least three days of rest. They are just 11-19 at home this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of the last 18 games in their Little Caesar’s Arena. Furthermore, Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons are looking to avenge a 127-103 loss at home to the Bucks back on December 4th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. Detroit was an 8.5-point underdog in that meeting and now they are getting 13 or so points with their depleted roster. Milwaukee had won their previous six games away from home by double-digits before their loss at Indiana. 25* NBA Central Division Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (501) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-20 |
South Alabama +3 v. Appalachian State |
Top |
78-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (601) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (602). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (16-11) has won four straight games with their 50-49 win over UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 10-point favorite. Appalachian State (15-12) has won three of their last four games with their 62-57 upset win at Georgia Southern last Saturday as a 6-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: South Alabama won that game last week despite making only 31.6% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark for them all season. The Jaguars survived that game due to holding the Warhawks to just 31.5% shooting. South Alabama has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. The Jaguars have not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in a decisive 42 of their last 65 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. South Alabama has held its last five opponents to just 38.7% shooting from the field. Now the Jaguars go back on the road where they are 7-6 this season. South Alabama forces turnovers — and this attribute travels. The Jaguars 3rd in the Sun Belt Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.4% of their opponent’s possessions — and that mark improves to a 20.5% clip when they are playing on the road which is 53rd best in the nation. This is an area of vulnerability for the Mountaineers as they are 7th in the Sun Belt by turning the ball over in 20.0% of their conference possessions — and that number worsens to a 20.9% clip where they are playing at home which is the 306th worst mark in the nation. South Alabama is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. The Jaguars are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games as a dog. Appalachian State may be due for a letdown as they are just 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games after a point spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The Mountaineers return home where they are 8-4 this season but with a small average winning margin of +4.4 PPG. Appalachian State makes only 41.8% of their shots at home which results in just 68.7 PPG — they also rank 310th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. Appalachian State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when favored
|
02-19-20 |
Kansas State v. Texas Tech OVER 128.5 |
Top |
62-69 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (839) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (840). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (9-16) has lost five straight games with their 68-57 loss at TCU on Saturday as a 3-point underdog. Texas Tech (16-9) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 73-70 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats held the Horned Frogs to just 44.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Kansas State has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Wildcats stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Kansas State has played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 9.5 to 12 points. The Wildcats have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog overall. And in their last 15 games with the Total set at no higher than 129.5, Kansas State has played 12 of these games Over the Total. Texas Tech has splayed 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Red Raiders return home where they are 12-2 this season while making 48.1% of their shots which has generated 76.6 PPG. Texas Tech has played 6 straight home games Over the Total with the number set no higher than 129.5. They also have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas State will be looking to avenge a 77-63 loss at home to Texas Tech back on January 14th — and the Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (839) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-18-20 |
Oklahoma State v. West Virginia -10 |
Top |
47-65 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (616) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (615). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (18-7) has lost three straight games after their 70-59 loss at Baylor on Saturday as a 5-point underdog. Oklahoma State (13-12) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 73-70 upset victory at home against Texas Tech as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS MINUS THE POINTS: West Virginia allowed the Bears to make 51.8% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Mountaineers remain the second best team in the nation in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. West Virginia should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they are 12-1 this season with an average winning margin of +17.3 PPG. The Mountaineers hold their guests to just 36.4% shooting from the field which translates into only 59.2 PPG. West Virginia has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. While the Mountaineers make 45.9% of their shots at home, they do a few other things quite well to give them extra scoring opportunities. West Virginia leads the nation by pulling down 40.3% of their missed shots — and the Cowboys are 202nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 28.5% of their missed shots. The Mountaineers also lead the Big 12 by forcing turnovers in 24.6% of their opponent’s possessions — and Oklahoma State is 168th in the nation by turning the ball over in 19.0% of their possessions. The Cowboys may be due for a letdown after pulling off two straight upset wins as they also knocked off Kansas State on the road as a 3-point underdog before pulling off the same feat against the Red Raiders. But Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning three of their last four games. They stat on the road where they are 6-6 despite making only 43.6% of their shots from the field. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 9.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys will be looking to avenge a 55-41 loss at home to the Mountaineers back on January 6th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the West Virginia Mountaineers (616) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-17-20 |
Idaho v. Portland State -10.5 |
Top |
69-90 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Portland State Vikings (868) minus the points versus the Idaho Vandals (867). THE SITUATION: Portland State (12-14) has lost two of their last three games with their 89-81 upset loss to Eastern Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Idaho (7-17) had lost eight of their last nine games before they upset Eastern Washington last Thursday as a 15-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Portland State should respond with a strong effort as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they are 7-3 this season with an average winning margin of +10.0 PPG. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Portland State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. The Vikings shoot 46.5% on their home court but there are a few things they do that give them extra possessions which helps them get to their 83.6 PPG scoring average on their home court even their shots are not falling. Portland State is 8th in the nation by pulling down 36.1% of their missed shots — and that mark rises to a 37.4% mark when they are playing at home. The Vikings are also 3rd in the Big Sky Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.6% of their opponent’s possessions. This is an area of weakness for the Vandals as they are last in the Big Sky by turning the ball over in 20.8% of their conference possessions. That mark rises to a 21.5% clip when they are playing on the road which is 272nd in the country. Idaho has not been very consistent after victories as they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a win over a conference rival. Additionally, the Vandals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win as a road underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a win on the road. Furthermore, Idaho has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. They made 50% of their shots against Eastern Washington after shooting 52.3% from the field in their previous game against Montana — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after shooting at least 50% from the field in two straight games. The Vandals stay on the road where they are just 3-9 this season with an average losing margin of -7.0 PPG. Idaho scores only 62.7 PPG on the road while ranking 307th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Vandals are also last in the Big Sky in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
FINAL TAKE: Portland State will be looking to avenge a 72-61 upset loss at Idaho despite being a 6.5-point underdog in that game. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Game of the Year with the Portland State Vikings (868) minus the points versus the Idaho Vandals (867). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-20 |
Arizona v. Stanford +4.5 |
Top |
69-60 |
Loss |
-105 |
14 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Stanford Cardinal (808) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (807). THE SITUATION: Stanford (16-8) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 74-69 upset loss at home to Arizona State on Thursday. Arizona (17-7) has won five of their last six contests with their 68-52 win at California on Thursday as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINAL PLUS THE POINTS: Stanford shot a healthy 52% from the field on Thursday — but it was their defense that let them down as they allowed the Sun Devils to make 54.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. The Cardinal is one of the best defensive teams in the nation — they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also topping the Pac-12 in that metric. Stanford should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with one day of rest. The Cardinal has also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games after losing at least two games in a row. They stay at home where they are 12-3 this season with an average winning margin of +12.2 PPG. Stanford is 2nd in the Pac-12 with an effective field goal percentage of 52.6% — and they rank 38th in the nation with an eFG of 55.7% on their home court. Overall, the Cardinal has a field goal percentage of 48.9% at home which has translated into 71.9 PPG — and they are limiting their guests to just 39.6% shooting what results in only 59.7 PPG. Stanford has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 40 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games against Pac-12 foes. Furthermore, the Cardinal has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games as an underdog getting no more than 6 points. Arizona made 48.1% of their shots on Thursday in their win over the Golden Bears which was the best shooting mark in their last thirteen games. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win on the road. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when playing with one day of rest. The Wildcats are not playing their best basketball as of late. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 43.5% of their shots which is well above their opponent’s 39.4% field goal percentage for the season. And while they are averaging 78.3 PPG this season on 46.1% shooting, those numbers have dropped to just a 69.2 PPG scoring clip over their last five games on 39.3% shooting. Now this team stays on the road where they make only 44.6% of their shots inside the arc which drags down their effective field goal percentage to 45.0% when on the road — those marks rank 279th an 287th in the nation. Arizona averages 78.3 PPG this season — but Stanford has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games against teams who score at least 77 PPG. And while the Cardinal has an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39.3%, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42%.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games against teams who are winning 60 to 80% of their games —and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last thirteen games against opponents who are winning at least 60% of their contests. Stanford will be without their 6’9 junior forward Oscar Da Silva who is out with a head injury — but they do have 6’9 Jaiden Delaire and 6’10 Lukas Kisunas who are regular rotational players off the bench who will be asked to play more in this contest. It is also Da Silva’s absence which explains why the Cardinal are underdogs in the 4-point range despite the analytics projecting a 1-point win for the Wildcats. 25* CBB Pac-12 Underdog of the Year with the Stanford Cardinal (808) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (807). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-20 |
Rider v. Siena UNDER 147.5 |
Top |
64-73 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Rider Broncs (857) and the Siena Saints (858). THE SITUATION: Rider (14-9) has won five of their last six games with their 73-58 victory over Niagara last Saturday as a 9-point favorite. Siena (11-10) has won four of their last five games with their 65-49 win over Fairfield as an 8-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Rider has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total after a victory. The Broncs won that game over the Purple Eaters by making 54.5% of their shots which was the best shooting effort of their season. But now Rider goes back on the road where they are making just 42.3% of their shots. The Broncs have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. Rider is playing their best defense of the year at this point of the season after holding Niagara to just 33.3% shooting on Sunday. The Broncs have held their last five opponents to just 39% shooting which has resulted in just 64.6 PPG which is -6.0 PPG below their season average. Rider will be challenged to defend their defensive glass against this Saints team that leads the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference by pulling down 34.5% of their missed shots. The Broncs are 43rd in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding 24.5% of their missed shots. Rider has held their last two opponents to just 5 and 7 offensive rebounds in their last two games — and they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 offensive rebounds in two straight games. And while Siena averages a +4.6 net Rebounding Per Game margin this year, the Broncs have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who are outrebounding their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. The Saints have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Siena has also played 8 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. The Saints stay at home where they have held their guests to just 41.2% shooting which has generated only 64.7 PPG. Siena has played 21 of their last 28 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Siena is also playing their best defense of the season after limiting the Stags to just 30.2% shooting last Friday. The Saints have limited their last five opponents to only 38% shooting which has resulted in just 63.2 PPG. Siena has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then played 9 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games.
FINAL TAKE: Siena will be looking to avenge an 85-77 loss at Rider back on January 5th — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with revenge where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Rider Broncs (857) and the Siena Saints (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-20 |
SIU-Edwardsville v. Eastern Illinois OVER 140.5 |
Top |
76-74 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville Cougars (651) and the Eastern Illinois Panthers (652). THE SITUATION: SIU-Edwardsville (6-19) snapped their four-game losing streak last Saturday with their 83-75 upset victory against Eastern Kentucky as a 2-point underdog. Eastern Illinois (12-12) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 71-65 win over Morehead State as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL:
|
02-13-20 |
Clippers v. Celtics UNDER 228 |
Top |
133-141 |
Loss |
-106 |
5 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (523) and the Boston Celtics (524). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (37-17) has lost two of their last three games with their 110-103 upset loss at Philadelphia as a 2-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (37-16) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 116-105 loss at Houston as a 2-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers will be playing their third game in the last five days tonight before the All-Star break begins tomorrow — they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing their third game in five days. Los Angeles stays on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The Clippers have also played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. It is not often when Doc Rivers’ team is getting the points — and that usually means that ramp things up on the defensive end of the court. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. They also have played 24 of their last 32 road games as an underdog which includes them playing seven straight games on the road as a dog getting up to 6 points. Furthermore, the Clippers have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against opponents with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. And while the Celtics are shooting 46.3% from the field this season, Los Angeles has played 22 of their last 33 road games Under the Total against teams with a 46% or better field goal percentage. Boston has not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. The Celtics return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Boston has also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Celtics have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% overall.
FINAL TAKE: The Clippers won the last meeting between these two teams at home in the Staples Center with their 107-104 victory as a 7.5-point favorite on November 20th. Boston has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge on their minds. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Thursday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (523) and the Boston Celtics (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-12-20 |
Lakers v. Nuggets +3 |
Top |
120-116 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (521). THE SITUATION: Denver (38-16) has won four straight games with their 127-120 win over San Antonio on Monday as a 6.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (40-12) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 125-100 win over Phoenix as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver allowed the Spurs to make 48.2% of their shots in the win which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Denver has also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games at home after a point spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they should build off that momentum as they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Nuggets are dealing with injuries right now with Mason Plumlee, Will Barton, and Michael Porter, Jr. have all bee out. But Denver still has Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap, and Jamal Murray who have helped this team make 50.9% of their shots over their last five games which has resulted in 118.4 PPG. Now the Nuggets stay at home where they are 21-6 with an average winning margin of +6.0 PPG. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home with the Total set at 220 or higher. Additionally, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 5 games as an underdog, Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of these games. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home by at least 20 points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. And while the Lakers are shooting 52.6% from the field over their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after shooting at least 47% from the field over their last five contests. Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Lakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when they are favored. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: The Lakers will be looking to avenge a 128-104 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 2.5-point favorite back on December 22nd. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 20 points. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 meetings with the Nuggets — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Denver to play this team. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Game of the Year with the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (521).
|
02-11-20 |
Celtics v. Rockets UNDER 232 |
Top |
105-116 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 9:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (585) and the Houston Rockets (586). THE SITUATION: Boston (37-15) has won seven straight games after their 112-111 win at Oklahoma City as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Houston (33-20) has lost their last two games with their 114-113 upset loss against Utah on Sunday as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Boston has not covered the point spread in their last two games with their victory over the Thunder preceded by a 112-107 win at home against Atlanta. The Celtics have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by 6 points or less. Boston stays on the road where they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 6 points. Additionally, the Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 220 or higher. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. The Rockets have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by 3 points or less. Houston has fully embraced small-ball which was cemented with the trade of their center Clint Capela last week. The Rockets are getting killed on the boards as they have been out-rebounded by 10 and 15 boards in their last two games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after being out-rebounded by at least 10 boards in two straight games. Houston has allowed their last four opponents shoot at least 47% from the field while scoring at least 110 points in all four games but they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing at least their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 110 points in four straight games. Small-ball has not resulted in an uptick of scoring (except for their upset win over the Lakers, unfortunately for us, when Eric Gordon and the rest of the team could not miss from 3-point land): they are making only 42.8% of their shots over their last five games for a 113.4 PPG scoring average which is well behind their 119.3 PPG/45.1% field goal percentage for the season. Houston has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. And in their last 51 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Rockets have played 39 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Boston’s biggest weakness is the lack of interior defenders — but that will not be an issue against this Rockets team. The Celtics do a good job of defending the arc as they rank 7th in the league by holding their opponents to make just 34.5% of their shots behind the arc. These two teams have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 meetings in Houston Under the Total. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (585) and the Houston Rockets (586). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-10-20 |
Nets v. Pacers -6 |
Top |
106-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (560) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (559). THE SITUATION: Indiana (31-22) has lost five straight games with their 124-117 loss at home to New Orleans on Saturday as a 5.5-point favorite. Brooklyn (23-28) saw their two-game winning streak end on Saturday with their 119-118 loss at Toronto as a 6-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana has struggled as of late with slow starts and poor play in the 4th quarter. But hosting this Nets team that they have defeated in eleven of their last twelve encounters. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss —and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. And while this is Indiana’s third straight game on their home court, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing their last two games at home. The Pacers have lost five of their last six contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Indiana has only covered the point spread once in their last five games as well — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Indiana is completely healthy at this point in the season with Victor Oladipo back in the mix. He did not play on Saturday in the loss to the Pelicans with head coach Nate McMillan managing his work load but he should be back on the floor tonight. Indiana stays at home where they are 18-9 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. They are also 19-6-1 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 67 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Pacers have covered the point spread in 42 of these contests. Brooklyn rallied from an 18-point deficit on Saturday to narrowly lose to the Raptors. But the Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread 10 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 115 points in their last contest. Brooklyn is once again playing without Kyrie Irving who is dealing with a knee injury — he will be missing his fourth straight game tonight. The Nets stay on the road where they are just 8-16 this season. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Nets have lost ten of their thirteen games this season against the top-six teams in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against the Pacers — and the have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven trips to Indianapolis to play the Pacers. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Indiana Pacers (560) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (559). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-20 |
Bulls v. 76ers OVER 213 |
Top |
111-118 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 6:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (549) and the Philadelphia 76ers (550). THE SITUATION: Chicago (19-34) has lost four games in a row with their 125-119 loss at home to New Orleans on Thursday as a 6-point underdog. Philadelphia (32-21) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 119-107 win over Memphis as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulls are struggling on the defensive end of the court — they allowed the Pelicans to make 56.3% of their shots. Chicago allowed the Raptors to shoot 56% from the field in their previous game as well — they have allowed their last four opponents to shoot at least 51.4% and five of their last six opponents have shot at least 50% from the field. The Bulls have then played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 55%. Furthermore, Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. The Bulls have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 54.5% from the field which has generated 122/.2 PPG. But Chicago has also made 47.0% of their shots over that span which has resulted in them averaging 111.0 PPG in those last five games. The Bulls have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Chicago has also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing at least three straight games in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs — and they have played 10 of their last 14 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. The Bulls have also played 21 of their last 28 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia played their best defensive game in their last nine contests on Friday by holding then Grizzlies to just 40.9% shooting from the field. But the 76ers have still allowed their last five opponents to make 47.8% of their shots which has resulted in 119.8 PPG that they have allowed during that span. Philly has allowed their last five opponents to score at least 107 points — and they have then played 18 of their last 26 home games Over the Total after allowing their last three opponents to score at least 105 points. The Sixers stay at home where they are 23-2 while making 48.5% of their shots which has resulted in 111.7 PPG. Philadelphia has played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The 76ers have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Chicago will be looking to avenge a 100-89 loss at Philadelphia back on January 17th — and they have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a same-season loss. These two teams have played 13 of their last 19 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (549) and the Philadelphia 76ers (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-08-20 |
Nets v. Raptors -6 |
Top |
118-119 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (536) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (535). THE SITUATION: Toronto (38-14) has won thirteen games in a row with their 115-106 win at Indiana as a 2-point favorite last night. Brooklyn (23-27) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 129-88 victory over Golden State as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS MINUS THE POINTS: Toronto should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least six games in a row. The Raptors have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing without a day of rest. Toronto made 47.7% of their shots last night which was the lowest field goal percentage they have produced in their last six games. They are still making 50.8% of their shots over their last five contests. They return home where they are 19-7 this season with an average winning margin of +8.4 PPG. They limit their guests to just 42.9% shooting from the field when playing at home. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games against fellow Atlantic Division rivals. Toronto has also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Brooklyn played their best defensive game in their last twelve contests by limiting the Warriors to just 36.5% shooting. But the Nets are likely due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 30 points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning at least two games in a row. Brooklyn has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are just 8-15 this season with an average losing margin of -4.2 PPG while shooting just 43.4% from the field. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight road games as a dog. Furthermore, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against fellow Atlantic Division opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Injuries have impacted both these teams recently. The Nets are without Kyrie Irving against who is out with a knee injury. Toronto has been without Marc Gasol for the last five games along with Norman Powell in the last three contests with injuries and they will also be without Kyle Lowry tonight who suffered a shoulder injury last night. But the strength of this Raptors team has been their great depth — and they still have very good players led by Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and Serge Ibaka. Toronto defeated Brooklyn by a 121-102 score in the Barclays Center back on January 4th — and the Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when attempting to avenge a loss on their home court. Brooklyn has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Raptors. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Atlantic Division Game of the Year with the Toronto Raptors (536) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-08-20 |
Purdue v. Indiana -1.5 |
Top |
74-62 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (642) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (641). THE SITUATION: Indiana (15-7) has lost three straight games after their 68-59 loss at Ohio State last Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog. Purdue (13-10) has won three of their last four games after their 104-68 blowout win at home against Iowa as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Boilermakers are likely due for a big emotional letdown after playing their best game of the season. Purdue nailed 19 shots from behind the arc en route to a 63.1% shooting percentage which was — by far — their best offensive effort of the season. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Additionally, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a blowout victory by at least 30 points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after a win over a Big Ten opponent — and they have generally been inconsistent this season as they failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up victory. In terms of Adjusted Efficiency, the Boilermakers rank number one in the nation when playing at home in Mackey Arena — but they plummet to just 96th in the nation in that metric when playing on the road. Purdue is 3-8 away from home with an average losing margin of -5.3 PPG. Offense is the biggest weakness of this team — they rank 12th in the Big Ten by scoring 68.8 PPG while also ranking 12th with their meager 65.8% free throw percentage along with their 45.0% shooting mark inside the arc. Their shooting is even worse when they are playing on the road where they are making just 36.5% of their shots which is translating into just 59.0 PPG. The Boilermakers are 345th in the nation on the road with an effective field goal percentage of 41.5% due to their 26.5% shooting from behind the arc (335th in the nation) and their 42.8% shooting clip inside the arc (317th in the nation). Purdue is 0-4-1 ATS in the last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games in Big Ten play. The Boilermakers are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. Indiana is desperate for a victory — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a loss on the road to a Big Ten opponent. The Hoosiers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. Now after playing their last two games on the road where they were the underdog, they return home where they are 12-2 this season with an average winning margin of +13.9 PPG while ranking 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Indiana makes 48.6% of their shots at home which generates a healthy 80.0 PPG. The Hoosiers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. Indiana leads the Big Ten with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 38.6%. And while Purdue leads the Big Ten by pulling down 34.0% of their missed shots, the Hoosiers also lead the conference by limiting their opponents to rebounding just 24.5% of their missed shots. The Boilermakers average +4.6 net RPG versus their opponents — but Indiana has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after fifteen games into the season against opponents who average at least +4.0 RPG.
FINAL TAKE: Bobby Knight is expected to make his first return to Assembly Hall since 1999 with the University honoring the 1980 National Championship team — so emotions will be very high. Indiana has defeated Michigan State, Ohio State, and Florida State on their home court this season that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy currently ranks in his Top-19 teams in the nation with his analytics. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Indiana Hoosiers (642) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (641). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-07-20 |
Blazers v. Jazz -9.5 |
Top |
114-117 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (526) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (525). THE SITUATION: Utah (32-18) has lost five games in a row with their 98-95 upset loss at home to Denver on Wednesday as a 9.5-point favorite. Portland (24-28) has won five of their last six games with their 125-117 win over San Antonio as a 3-point favorite last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah has been very frustrating as of late as they have suffered a remarkable five straight upset losses. We have been on the wrong side of at least two of those games including when they blew a 15-point lead in the 3rd quarter against the Nuggets on Wednesday. I do get reluctant to keep chasing a situation — but is one of those moments where I would have more regret not investing in this situation than I would losing once again on the Jazz. Most importantly to ensure I am not simply chasing good money after bad, this presents a strong “play-against” situation against the Trail Blazers. Portland made 53.3% of their shots last night which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They also held the Spurs to just 44.6% shooting from the field in what was the best defensive effort in their lsat seven contests. The Trail Blazers have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a victory on their home court — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. Damian Lillard has been playing out of his mind with a stretch where he scored 47 or more points in five of six games — but he has come back to earth a bit over his last two contests where he has “only” scored 21 and 26 points. Playing the second game in back-to-back days will not help Lillard replicate his recent Superman powers — and Portland is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games when playing without a day of rest. The Blazers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. Now this team goes back on the road where they are jus 10-17 this season while being outscored by -4.9 PPG while making just 44.9% of their shots. Portland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Trail Blazes have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as a dog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Utah is questioning their mental toughness right now after suffering five straight upset losses — but head coach Quin Snyder’s team has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after an upset loss on their home court. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. This team has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. They made only 41.9% of their shots on Wednesday which was the lowest shooting effort for them in their last twenty-six games. They stay at home where they should shoot better tonight given their 48.0% field goal percentage on their home court this season which is translating into 111.1 PPG. Utah is 18-5 at home with an average winning margin of +7.3 PPG. The Jazz are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. The knock on this Utah team is that the 19-2 winning stretch they enjoyed before this recent losing streak was due largely to them playing weaker opponents. Perhaps … but we can take heart into the fact that the Jazz have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 ames overall against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Utah will be motivated to avenge a 124-107 loss at Portland last Saturday as an 8-point favorite. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. The Trail Blazers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against Utah in Salt Lake City. Let’s trust the team trends in what looks to be a great situation (albeit one that has burned us with the Jazz twice in the last seven days). 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the Utah Jazz (526) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (525). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-20 |
76ers v. Bucks -8.5 |
Top |
101-112 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (506) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (505). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (43-7) has won two straight games — as well as eleven of their last twelve contests — with their 120-108 win at New Orleans as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday. Philadelphia (31-20) has lost three in a row with their 137-106 blowout loss at Miami on Monday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win on the road by double-digit. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after winning three of their last four games. Milwaukee has been a juggernaut as of late on offense where they have nailed 49.5% of their shots over their last five games which has generated 126.2 PPG. Defense has been an issue for the 76ers during their recent slide — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.2% of their shots. Now the bucks return home where they are 23-3 this season with an average winning margin of +13.3 PPG while making 48.7% of their shots which is resulting in 121.8 PPG. The Bucks are also holding their guests to just 41.5% shooting from the field. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Bucks up-tempo offense is helping them average 91 shots per game — and Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against opponents that average at least 88 shots per game. And while the Sixers make 46.5% of their shots, Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 home games against teams who make at least 46% of their shots. Philadelphia is reeling right now — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. They also are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. They allowed the Heat to make 56.5% of their shots on Monday — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Chemistry is a significant problem for this team. Al Horford and Joel Embiid have not been a good fit together since they play similar roles on the court. Embiid is also clashing with Ben Simmons both on and off the court with both players wanting to be the leader of the team — and Simmons is closer to a power forward, in practice, than a point guard so the role allocation on this team continues to be less than ideally optimal. Philadelphia did make some intriguing moves yesterday by adding Glenn Robinson III and Alec Burks from Golden State — but it is questionable if this shooting depth will be able to take the court tonight (and it will likely take some time to effectively transition into the rotation). Philly will also still be without starter Josh Richardson who has been out a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury. The 76ers were playing perhaps their most consistent basketball of the season last month when Embiid was injured. Philly has also been very good at home where they are 22-2 this season — but they have been an ugly 9-18 on the road this year while allowing their opponents to make 46.9% of their shots which has resulted in 110.4 PPG. The 76ers are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games on the road — and they are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee will be looking to avenge a 121-109 loss at Philadelphia on Christmas Day by a 121-109 score despite being a 2.5-point favorite. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed all seven of his 3-point attempts in that game while making just 8 of his 27 shots for just 18 points. The Greek Freak enters this rematch scoring at least 30 points with 16 rebounds and 6 assists in four straight games. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the 76ers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games as an underdog. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Thursday TNT Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (506) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-20 |
Temple v. Memphis UNDER 136.5 |
Top |
65-79 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Temple Owls (827) and the Memphis Tigers (828). THE SITUATION: Temple (11-10) snapped their four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 76-64 win at home against East Carolina as a 10.5-point favorite. Memphis (16-5) has won their last two games with their 70-63 win over UConn as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Owls made 48.9% of their shots on Saturday in their victory over the Pirates which was the best shooting mark in their last ten games. But Temple has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now the Owls go back on the road where they are making only 36.4% of their shots which is translating into just 63.4 PPG. Temple ranks only 350th in the nation (out of 353 Division I teams) with an effective field goal percentage of 39.4% due mostly to their 37.7% shooting mark inside the arc which is also 350th in the nation — and they rank 310th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. The Owls have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Temple has also played 6 straight road games Under the Total with the number set in the 135 to 139.5 point range. The Owls are last in the American Athletic Conference overall in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they play strong defense for head coach Aaron McKie. Temple ranks 33rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency with that ranking improving to 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Memphis has been outstanding on defense this season for head coach Penny Hardaway — they rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency based on their nation-leading opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 41.7%. The Tigers have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total after a win over a conference opponent. Memphis has also played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. But this team has struggled to score points as of late as they are making just 41.5% of their shots over their last five games which is has resulted in just 59.8 PPG. The Tigers stay at home where they are limiting their guests to only 34.2% shooting from the field which has translated into just 59.8 PPG. Memphis has the 3rd best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. They have played 15 of their last 22 home games Under the Total as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Temple has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Temple Owls (827) and the Memphis Tigers (828). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-20 |
Spurs +12 v. Lakers |
Top |
102-129 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (569) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (570). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (22-27) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last night with their 108-105 loss at Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 9-point underdog. Los Angeles (37-11) ended their two-game losing streak on Saturday with their 129-113 win in Sacramento as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio made only 42% of their shots last night which was the lowest field goal percentage for them in their last four games — they had made 56.1% and 51.7% of their shots in their previous two games. The Spurs also allowed the Clippers to make 46% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five contests. San Antonio is 6th in the NBA in Defensive Rating over their last five games where they are holding their opponents to just 43.8% shooting from the field. They should play better tonight as they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. San Antonio is healthy right now so their good depth should help them tonight when playing the second straight games in the Staples Center. The Spurs have covered then point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Spurs have covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Los Angeles responded to their flat performance on Friday at home against the Trail Blazers in their first game since the tragic death of Kobe Bryant by playing one of their better games of the season the next night in Sacramento. The Lakers shot 51.2% from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. They also held the Kings to just a 42.9% field goal percentage which is the lowest mark in LA’s last four games. But the Lakers have struggled on the defensive end of the court as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.1% of their shots which has resulted in them scoring 110.6 PPG. Los Angeles is 10th in the league in Defensive Rating over those last five games as compared to their overall ranking this season in that metric at 4th best in the NBA. The biggest weakness for this team right now is that they lack a reliable second scorer who can create his own shot in the half-court offense after LeBron James (even Anthony Davis struggles to create his own shooting opportunities). This helps explain why the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as the favorite. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 45 of their last 71 home games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Furthermore, the Spurs are an up-tempo team that averages 90 shot attempts per game while averaging 25 assists per game. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games in the second half of the season against opponents who average at least 88 shot attempts per game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 43 games in the second half of the season against opponents who average at least 23 assists per game.
FINAL TAKE: San Antonio will be looking to avenge a 114-104 loss at home to the Lakers back on November 25th. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 38 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Tuesday TNT Game of the Year with the San Antonio Spurs (569) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-20 |
Pistons v. Grizzlies -9 |
Top |
82-96 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (558) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (557). THE SITUATION: Memphis (24-25) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 139-111 loss at New Orleans as a 7.5-point underdog. Detroit (18-33) ended their five-game losing streak yesterday with their 128-123 upset win against Denver as a 2-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis allowed the Pelicans to nail 53.7% of their shots on Friday which was the worst defensives effort in their last eighteen games. The Grizzlies also made just 46.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting performance in their last five games. Memphis should respond with a big effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Memphis has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Jalen Jackson was suspended for the game on Friday but he will be back on the court night. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Grizzlies return home where they had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. Additionally, Memphis has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games on the road. And in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 7 of these contests. Detroit is just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. And Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing without a day of rest. The Pistons are not playing very good defense as of late — the Nuggets made 50% of their shots which was the fourth straight opponent to enjoy at least a 50% field goal percentage against Detroit. The Pistons are 25th in the NBA over their last five games in Defensive Rating while allowing their opponents to make 49.3% of their shots which is resulting in 117.8 PPG by their opponents over that span. They are also plaguing undermanned with a host of injuries. Blake Griffin is, once again, on the shelf with a knee injury and Derrick Rose is also out for tonight with a groin injury. Reggie Jackson and Markieff Morris are both questionable tonight as well with back and hip injuries respectively. Detroit goes back on the road where they are just 8-16 this season. The Pistons are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games on the road — and they are also 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Pistons will be motivated to avenge a 125-112 loss at home to the Grizzlies on January 24th as a 2-point favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 42 games when playing with revenge from a loss by double-digits. Detroit has also failed to cover the point spread 4 of their last 5 meetings with Memphis. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Non-Conference Game of the Year with the Memphis Grizzlies (558) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (557). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-20 |
Jazz -6 v. Blazers |
Top |
107-124 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (531) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (532). THE SITUATION: Utah (32-16) has lost three straight games after their 106-100 upset loss at Denver as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. Portland (22-27) has won three straight games after their 127-119 upset victory in Los Angeles over the Lakers last night as a 13-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah needs to get back to their winning ways with this three-game losing streak — they had won nineteen of twenty-one games before this recent slide. Quin Snyder’s team has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, while the Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after only covering the point spread once in their last four games. Despite this recent slide, Utah is still making a healthy 47.8% of its shots which has translated into 115.6 PPG. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record. I was wrong about Portland last night as they were the team that responded to the emotion of it being the first game in the Staples Center after the tragic death of Kobe Bryant. In a game that had, at times, the defensive intensity of an NBA All-Star Game, Damian Lillard went off with 48 points along with 10 assists and 9 rebounds to best embody the “Mamba Mentality” while the Lakers seemed to still be suffering from their grief. It will be difficult for the Trail Blazers to maintain that energy — especially without a day of rest. As it is, Portland is 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games after a point spread victory — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without rest. The Blazers made 50.5% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort in their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Portland returns home where they are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games — and they are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Blazers are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Utah is scoring 111.2 PPG this season — and Portland has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams who are scoring at least 110 PPG. The Trail Blazers are allowing 114.9 PPG — and the Jazz have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 road games in the second half of the season against teams who are allowing at least 110 PPG. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Northwest Division Game of the Year with the Utah Jazz (531) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-20 |
Colorado v. USC UNDER 135.5 |
Top |
78-57 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (819) and the USC Trojans (820). THE SITUATION: Colorado (16-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 72-68 upset loss at UCLA as a 4.5-point favorite. USC (17-4) has won five of their last six contests with their 56-52 win over Utah as an 8-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buffaloes have played their last two games Over the Total — and they have then played 27 of their last 36 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Colorado stays on the road where they are making only 38.9% of their shots which is resulting in just 65.6 PPG. The Buffaloes are making just 41.3% of their shots inside the arc on the road which is 338th in the nation. This difficulty in shooting 2-pointers has dragged their effective field goal percentage on the road to just a 44.2% mark on the road which is 300th in the country. Colorado has played 25 of their last 34 road games Under the Total — and they have played 20 of their last 26 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. But this Buffaloes teams does play excellent defense — they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. And that ranking improves when only looking at how teams play on the road where Colorado ranks 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. USC has played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Trojans have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning at least two in a row against conference opponents. USC has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. The Trojans stay at home where they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record after fifteen games into the season. USC also plays tough defense — they rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking 2nd in the Pac-12 in that metric in conference play. They hold their visitors to just 38.7% shooting on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado out-rebounds their opponents by +6.1 RPG — but the Trojans have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who out-rebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. And while USC is outscoring their opponents by +6.3 PPG, the Buffaloes have played 6 straight games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who outscore their opponents by +4.0 PPG. 25* CBB FS1-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (819) and the USC Trojans (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-20 |
76ers v. Celtics UNDER 215 |
Top |
95-116 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (525) and the Boston Celtics (526). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (31-18) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 127-117 upset loss at Atlanta as a 6-point favorite. Boston (32-15) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 119-104 win over Golden State as a 13.5-point favorite on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers allowed the Hawks to make 48.3% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last nine games. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. This is the Sixers just fourth game in the last ten days — and they have played 25 of their last 34 games when playing no more than their fourth game in the last ten days. Philly stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the 76ers have played 7 straight games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Boston nailed 47.7% of their shots on Thursday in what was their best shooting performance in their last four games. The Celtics have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 10 points. Boston has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Celtics have scored at least 108 points in eight straight games — but they have then played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games. Boston has also played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: The Celtics will have revenge on their minds as they have lost their last four encounters with the 76ers with their last meeting being on January 9th where Philly defeated them by a 109-90 score. Boston has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge at least three straight losses to their opponent. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (525) and the Boston Celtics (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-01-20 |
Connecticut v. Memphis UNDER 134.5 |
Top |
63-70 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Huskies (619) and the Memphis Tigers (620). THE SITUATION: UConn (11-9) snapped their four-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 78-63 win over Temple as a 4.5-point favorite. Memphis (15-5) ended their two-game losing streak on Wednesday when they defeated Central Florida in their gym by a 59-57 score as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. UConn has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. The Huskies managed that victory despite making just 35.5% of their shots. UConn has not shot better than 39.7% over their last three games — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after failing to shoot better than 40% in three straight games. Over their last five contests, the Huskies have a 39.5% field goal percentage. UConn is last in the American Athletic Conference with an effective field goal percentage of just 42.5% — and they are also last in the conference by making just 26.0% of their 3-point attempts. It gets even worse for the Huskies when they are playing on the road where they are scoring just 64.0 PPG. UConn’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency is just 307th in the nation when playing on the road — and they are making only 24.2% of their 3-pointers in their true road games. But the good news for head coach Dan Hurley’s team is that they play very good defense on the road as they rank 20th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. UConn has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Huskies have also played 6 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 6 points. Memphis has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Tigers have also played 6 straight home games Under the Total after a narrow win by 6 points or less. Memphis averages 73.7 PPG this season but that mark has plummeted over their last five games to a mere 59.4 PPG scoring average with a 42.8% field goal percentage. But head coach Penny Hardaway can lean on the outstanding defensive this team played. The Tigers lead the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 41.8% fueled by their tough interior defense that is limiting their opponents to just 39.2% shooting inside the arc which is 2nd best in the country. Overall, Memphis ranks 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that number improves to them being 7th in the nation in that metric when they are playing on their home court. The Tigers limit their guests to scoring just 60.9 PPG on 34.3% shooting. Memphis has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. 25* CBB CBS-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Connecticut Huskies (619) and the Memphis Tigers (620). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-31-20 |
Blazers v. Lakers -13 |
Top |
127-119 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (514) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (513). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (36-10) takes the court again for the first time since last Saturday where they were upset in Philadelphia to the 76ers by a 108-91 score as a 5-point favorite. Portland (21-27) has won three of their last four games with their 125-112 upset win at Houston as a 5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: It will be a very emotional night in the Staples Center with this being the first game the Lakers have played since the tragic death of Kobe Bryant. I expect a very focused and determined from Los Angeles as a small tribute to their fallen star. The Lakers are 16-5 on their home court with an average winning margin of +10.1 PPG. Los Angeles makes 48.3% of their shots on their home court while limiting their opponents to just 42.8% shooting from the field. The Lakers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Los Angeles is laying plenty of points tonight — and while I tend to be remiss to lay double-digits, I think the urgency to make a statement tonight by this team for their fans will be very strong. I also feel comfortable laying the 13 or so points because the Lakers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying at least 12.5 points. This is also a great opportunity to fade the Trail Blazers. Portland has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a game where at least 235 points were scored. The Blazers made 51.7% of their shots on Wednesday which was the third straight game where they made at least 50.5% of their shots. But Portland has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games. The Trail Blazers now go back on the road where they are just 9-16 this season while making just 44.9% of their shots. Portland has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Blazers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games where the Total is set at 230 or higher. Additionally, Portland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they are 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Portland will not have the services of Carmelo Anthony who is taking a personal day for this contest. Anthony Davis is listed as questionable for the Lakers with his gluteus injury — but even if he does not play, look for LeBron James to take his team on his shoulders tonight with a big performance.The Trail Blazers will be looking to avenge a 128-120 loss at home to the Lakers back on December 28th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Lakers (514) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-31-20 |
Wright State v. Wisc-Milwaukee +6 |
Top |
65-61 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (878) plus the points versus the Wright State Raiders (877). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (10-11) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 70-53 upset loss at Cleveland State as a 3-point favorite. Wright State (18-4) has won two straight games with their 95-63 win over Northern Kentucky last Friday as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after an upset loss by double-digits. The Panthers have also covered the point spread in a decisive 54 of their last 81 games after a loss by at least 10 points to a Horizon League rival — and this includes them covering the point spread in 8 of these last 12 situations. Milwaukee allowed the Vikings to make 51.1% of their shots in that game which was the most defensive field goal percentage in their last seven games. Even worse, the Panthers made only 25.4% of their shots in that game which was the worst shooting performance for them all season. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where they did not make at least 28% of their shots. This team does have ways to generate more scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. The Panthers lead the Horizon League by forcing turnovers in 21.8% of their opponent’s possessions. Milwaukee also returns home where they are pulling down 36.9% of their missed shots which is 19th best in the nation. The Panthers are 7-3 on their home court with an average winning margin of +7.1 PPG while holding their opponents to just 42.9% shooting. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. Wright State enjoyed their best shooting mark of the season last week as they nailed 61.1% of their shots. The Raiders rushed out to a 48-28 halftime lead against the Norse — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after being up by at least 20 points at halftime of their last game. Wright State has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Raiders go back on the road where they are making just 43.2% of their shots. Wright State also makes only 65.5% of their free throws when on the road which is 310th worst in the nation — so don’t give up hope if the Raiders are covering the point spread late in this game. Wright State averages 81.5 PPG — but Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who score at least 77 PPG. And while the Panthers make just 40.5% of their shots, the Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not make more than 42% of their shots. Furthermore, Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record after fifteen games into the season.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers will be looking to avenge an 82-70 loss to Wright State back on December 30th. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* CBB Horizon League Game of the Month with the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (878) plus the points versus the Wright State Raiders (877). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-20 |
76ers v. Hawks +7.5 |
Top |
117-127 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (573) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (574). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (12-36) has lost two of their last three games with their 130-114 loss at Toronto on Tuesday as a 13-point underdog. Philadelphia (31-17) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 115-104 victory at home over Golden State on Tuesday as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. Philadelphia got Joel Embiid back for that game against the Warriors where he scored 24 points while pulling down 10 rebounds and displaying little rust after being on the shelf for nine games. The Sixers won six of those games without Embiid with his absence offering a more stable role for Al Horford who they signed in the offseason. Head coach Brett Brown has not figured out how to effectively work both Embiid and Horford on the court at the same time with both big men playing similar roles. However, that might not be an issue tonight with Horford listed as questionable with a knee issue. The other dynamic that changed in Embiid’s absence is that it opened up space for Ben Simmons to play more aggressively. Simmons averaged 21.6 PPG in those nine games without Embiid while bailing a remarkable 65.3% of his shots as compared to 14.9 PPG scoring average in the 36 games before Embiid’s injury on 56.3% shooting. Philly needs Simmons to continue to be aggressive but the perceived need to get Embiid his touches may work against this notion. Now this team leaves the Wells Fargo Center where they are 22-2 this season — yet they are just 9-15 on the road with an average losing margin of -3.2 PPG. The 76ers are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on their home court. And while the Hawks are being outscored by an ugly -9.3 PPG this season, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against opponents who are being outscored by at least -9.0 PPG. Atlanta has coped the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss. Atlanta returns home where they are being outscored by -4.1 PPG. But the Hawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as the underdog. Atlanta will likely be without big men Alex Len and Bruno Fernandes who are dealing with injuries — but their absences on Tuesday offered the opportunity for big man John Collins to step up with 28 points and 12 rebounds. And the Hawks will have rising star Trae Young who has registered four straight double-doubles while scoring 42 and 45 points in two of those games. Young scored 45 points in his last game at home in a 152-133 win against Washington. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in their last four opportunities to host the Sixers.
FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have only defeated opponents on the road this season by more than 7 points — they beat the Cavaliers in Cleveland by 9 points on November 17th before winning in Detroit against the Pistons by 16 points on December 23rd. Since that win in Detroit, the Sixers have lost seven of their last nine games on the road. Atlanta has covered the point spread in four of their last five games at home as an underdog getting at least 2 points — and they have pulled the upset in three of those games. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with Atlanta Hawks (573) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-30-20 |
Northeastern v. William & Mary OVER 141 |
Top |
58-59 |
Loss |
-113 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Northeastern Huskies (619) and the William & Mary Pride (620). THE SITUATION: Northeastern (11-10) has lost two of their last three games with their 76-74 loss to Delaware on Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. William & Mary (15-7) has lost two of their last three games as well after their 70-58 loss to Towson State as a 5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 26 of their last 38 games Over the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less — and this includes them playing 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less at home. This is an outstanding team in shooting the basketball that ranks 6th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.3%. Northeastern also ranks 4th in the nation by making 40.4% of their shots behind the arc. Those numbers do not fall off much when they are playing away from — they nail 37.7% of their 3-pointers on the road which is 26th best in the country which helps maintain their effective field goal percentage of 55% which is 11th best in the nation for teams playing on the road. The Huskies have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Northeastern should score plenty of points against this Pride defense that ranks 232nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Huskies average 72.7 PPG on the road — and they are scoring 76.8 PPG in their last five games while making 48.5% of their shots from the field. But Northeastern has allowed their last five opponents to also make 48.5% of their shots as well. William & Mary has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. And while that game finished Under the 137 point Total, the Pride have then played 11 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. William & Mary should be able to keep up with the Huskies scoring as they rank 14th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8%. The Pride will likely live inside against Northeastern — they rank 19th in the nation by making 54.7% of their 2-point shots while the Huskies rank 321st in the country by allowing their opponents to make 54.3% of their shots inside the arc. William & Mary is making 47.9% of their shots on their home court which has resulted in 76.7 PPG. The Pride have played 36 of their last 52 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, William & Mary has played 23 of their last 34 home games Over the Total as the favorite — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of William & Mary’s 66-64 upset victory over the Huskies back on January 4th. Northeastern shot just 43.5% from the field in that game while making just 6 of 19 (31.6%) of their shots from behind the arc in a game that saw only 65 respective possessions. The tempo should be quicker in this rematch (with the Huskies making more shots) — the Pride average 67.6 possessions per game while Northeastern averages 67.5 possessions in conference play. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Northeastern Huskies (619) and the William & Mary Pride (620). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-20 |
Thunder -3 v. Kings |
Top |
120-100 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (565) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (566). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (28-20) saw their five-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 107-97 loss at home to Dallas as a 4.5-point underdog. Sacramento (17-29) has won two in a row after being on a six-game losing streak with their 133-129 win at Minnesota on Monday as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. The Thunder have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Oklahoma City did not have the services of Chris Paul in that game with him taking a personal day after the news of the death of Kobe Bryant. The Thunder made only 39.5% of their shots without Paul in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 35 games. Paul is expected to be back on the court tonight — and Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning at least four of their last five games. Even with their disappointing shooting performance on Monday, the Thunder is still averaging a 49.8% field goal percentage over their last five games which has generated 116.4 PPG over that span. Now Oklahoma City goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the Thunder have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Sacramento outscored the Timberwolves by a 21-4 margin over the last 2:30 in the 4th quarter to force overtime to eke out that game. The Kings made 50% of their shots in what was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Kings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Now this team returns home for the first time since January 15th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Sacramento is 8-13 at home — and they are just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games on their home court. The Kings are also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games as an underdog — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Sacramento may not be at full strength for this game with Marvin Bagley III listed as questionable with a foot injury.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City is looking to avenge a 94-93 loss at Sacramento back on December 11th in the last meeting between these two teams. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Road Warrior of the Month with the Oklahoma City Thunder (565) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-20 |
Alabama +5.5 v. LSU |
Top |
76-90 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (809) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (810). THE SITUATION: Alabama (12-7) has won four games in a row with their 77-74 win over Kansas State on Saturday in the Big 12/SEC Challenge as a 9.5-point favorite. LSU (15-4) has won eight games in a row with their 69-67 upset win at Texas on Saturday in their Big 12/SEC Challenge matchup where they were 2-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE PLUS THE POINTS: Alabama has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while that game finished above the 146 point total, the Crimson Tide have then covered the point spread in 11 straight games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Alabama allowed the Wildcats to make 35.1% of their shots which — while low — happened to be the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Crimson Tide have the second-lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in SEC play — and they have held their last five opponents to just 34.7% shooting from the field. Now Alabama goes back on the road where they are outscoring their opponents despite a 4-6 record. The Tide have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. LSU is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after narrow win on the road by 3 points or less. The Tigers have been very fortunate to eke out close games. LSU has won their last six games by a combined 15 points with all those victories by 4 points or less and with three of them decided by 1 or 2 points. The Tigers return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Head coach Will Wade lost three starters from last year’s Sweet Sixteen squad — but he did return five contributors from that group while complementing them with five transfers. Yet scoring may be a problem for this team against this Crimson Tide defense. LSU is making only 44.0% of their shots over their last five games — and they make only 25.8% of their 3-pointers on their home court which is 341st in the nation. The Tigers do lead the SEC by rebounding 41.1% of their missed shots in conference play — but Alabama is 2nd in the SEC by limiting their opponents to rebounding just 26.9% of their missed shots.
FINAL TAKE: The Crimson Tide are beginning to thrive under first-year head coach Nate Oaks who has this team playing at the quickest adjusted tempo in the nation. Over their last ten games, the advanced metrics list Alabama as the 21st best team in the nation — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Those metrics rank LSU at just 45th in the nation over their last ten games despite them being ranked once again in the Top-25 for the first time in ten weeks. The Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. 25* CBB Underdog of the Month with the Alabama Crimson Tide (809) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (810). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-28-20 |
Nuggets v. Grizzlies -1 |
Top |
96-104 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
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At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (550) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (549). THE SITUATION: Memphis (22-24) has won two straight games as well as nine of their last eleven contests with their 114-109 victory on Sunday as a 2-point favorite. Denver (32-14) has won two straight games with their 117-110 win over Houston as a 2-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis should continue to build off the momentum of their victory on Sunday as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Led by rookie sensation Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are steadily improving with a balanced scoring attack with five players that average at least 10 PPG. Memphis made 52.4% of their shots on Sunday — and they shot 54.4% from the field in a 114-109 victory in Detroit against the Pistons in their previous contest. The Grizzlies have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after scoring at least 110 points in two straight games. Memphis has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. The Grizzlies have a field goal percentage of 48.6% over their last five games. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games. Memphis has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when favored by no more than 6 points. The Grizzlies are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Memphis is undermanned in this game with Jae Crowder doubtful with a knee injury and Grayson Allen is out with a hip injury. But the Nuggets are also missing some important players with Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap, and Mason Plumlee all out with injuries as well. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 road games after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. Furthermore, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after winning two games in a row. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in two straight games as well as three of their last four games. Denver has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Nuggets go back on the road for the fourth time in their last five contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight road games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games.
FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Memphis to face the Grizzlies. Memphis will be looking to avenge a 119-110 loss to the Nuggets back on December 28th. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games when playing with revenge from a same season loss. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (550) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (549). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-28-20 |
Purdue v. Rutgers -2.5 |
Top |
63-70 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (628) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (627). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (15-5) has won three of their last four games with their 75-72 win over Nebraska as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (11-9) snapped a two-game losing streak last Friday with their 70-57 victory over Wisconsin as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Boilermakers are likely due for a letdown after playing one of their best games of the season against the Badgers. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Boilermakers ave failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after a win over a Big Ten opponent. But Purdue has still only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have a completely different team than they are at home where they are 9-2 this season at Mackey Arena. But the Boilermakers are just 2-7 on the road where they are being outscored by -6.0 PPG. Purdue is not a good shooting team — they are 256th in the nation in effective field goal percentage and that number drops to 42.9% in Big Ten play which is last in the conference. The Boilermakers also have the worst Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the Big Ten. Their shooting is even worse away from home as they are making just 35.4% of their shots which is resulting in just 58.3 PPG. Pursue has an effective field goal percentage of 39.5% on the road which is 348th in the nation. They make only 23.8% of their 3-pointers on the road while making just 41.5% of their shots inside the arc on the road which ranks 345th and 327th in the nation. The Boilermakers also make things very difficult for themselves on the road by not getting to the free-throw line — they rank 329th in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 21.3%. Purdue is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 road games against Big Ten opponents. Rutgers is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a victory over a Big Ten opponent. And while the Scarlet Knights have won nine of their last eleven games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning at least four or five of their last six games. Rutgers won seven games in Big Ten play last season with head coach Steve Pikiell returns seven of the top eight scorers from that team. The Scarlet Knights stay at home where they are 14-0 with an average winning margin of +17.1 PPG. This Rutgers team plays outstanding defense as they rank 9th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Scarlet Knights hold their guests to just 35.6% shooting on their home court which results in 56.0 PPG. Rutgers rank 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. They will make things very difficult for the Boilermakers’ shooters as they rank 20th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.0%.
FINAL TAKE: The Scarlet Knights have already defeated Seton Hall, Penn State, Indiana, and Minnesota on their home court — metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks all four of those teams in the top 39 teams in the nation. Purdue is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (628) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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