Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-21-16 | Wizards v. Bulls -4 | 107-97 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Bulls (8:00 EST). The 12-15 Washington Wizards are in Chicago to take on the 14-13 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Washington comes in off a 107-105 loss at Indiana on Monday, while Chicago destroyed Detroit 113-82 to halt a three-game slide. I think the Wizards have a letdown here and expect the Bulls to build off their latest victory. The Wizards are just 2-9 on the road this year. Defense is the weak point for Washington as it concedes an average of 106.4 PPG, ranked 22nd. Chicago on the other hand averages 101.6 PPG and concedes just 99.3, which is ranked fifth. I’ll point out that the Wizards are just 4-7 ATS on the road this year and only 38-40 ATS in their last 78 after scoring 105 points or more, while the Bulls are 4-2 ATS this year following a divisional contest and 8-6 ATS in their last 14 home games. For all the reasons listed above, I’m backing the home side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-21-16 | Grizzlies v. Pistons -6.5 | 98-86 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 33 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Pistons (7:35 EST). The 18-11 Memphis Grizzlies are in Detroit to take on the 14-16 Pistons and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side. No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as Memphis was at home to Boston just last night, falling 112-109. I think the hungry home side, which has dropped three straight, including a listless 113-82 road setback at Chicago on Monday, finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. And to say this is a “revenge” game for the home side would be a bit of an understatement, as Memphis has taken 12 of the last 13 meeting, including a 93-92 win in Detroit back on December 9th, 2015. Memphis is ranked just 29th in scoring offense, posting 96.4 PPG. The Grizzlies get the job done on the defensive end though, conceding just 96.7 PPG, which is ranked No. 2. Detroit’s offense is ranked 25th overall, averaging 98.4 PPG. The defense though has also been stout, conceding 97.4 PPG, which is third overall in the league. I’ll point out though that Memphis is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten as a road dog of 6.5 to nine points, while Detroit is already 3-1 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU losses. I like the desperate home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-16 | Blazers v. Warriors -13 | Top | 90-135 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Golden State Warriors (10:30 EST). The 13-15 Portland Trailblazers are at Golden State to take on the 23-4 Warriors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Warriors enter off three straight SU victories. The Blazers are trending the opposite directoin, having lost five of their last six after falling at Denver on Thursday. Portland has given up at least 118 points in three of its last four outings. Most recently the Blazers allowed the Nuggets to shoot better than 50 percent, while also letting Denver hit 15 of 31 from range. And that doesn’t bode well versus this focused Warriors team which is seemingly getting better with each game. Most recently Golden State assisted on an amazing 41 of their 45 baskets in the 103-90 win over New York. I’ll point out that Portland is just 4-8 ATS against teams with winning records this year and only 6-10 ATS on the road, while Golden State is 6-4 ATS this season as a home fav of 12.5 points or more and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 following a win by ten points or more. The Blazers are playing horrible defense right now and I look for that trend to carry over here. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-16 | Lakers +2 v. 76ers | 100-89 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Lakers (8:05 EST). A couple of cellar dwellers go head-to-head on Friday night and I think the visitors have the advantage in this one. LA will be desperate, it’s all hands on deck after losing eight straight. Most recently the Lakers fell by ten at Brooklyn on Wednesday. LA held a one-point lead going into the fourth, but would fall apart late. Lou Williams had 16 points off the bench and six players would go on to score in double digits. But it wasn’t enough, as the defense couldn’t hold up. LA has averaged 107 PPG over its last six. The defense though has given up an average of 111 PPG this season. Philadelphia won two straight on the road and then returned home and lost 123-114 to Toronto on Wednesday. Robert Covington had 26 points and 12 boards. From a trend based stand point, they don’t get much better than this though, as LA is 6-3 ATS in its last nine off an upset loss as a favorite (including 2-1 ATS this season), while Philadelphia is just 2-4 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more. The Lakers have actually been getting healthier on this road trip and I think the deeper team finds a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-16 | Hawks +7 v. Raptors | 125-121 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:35 EST). The 12-13 Atlanta Hawks are in Toronto to take on the 18-7 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Hawks had a two-game win streak snapped in a 131-120 setback at home to Orlando on Wednesday, while Toronto won its fourth straight and tenth out of its last 11 with a 123-114 road win at Philadelphia. To say this is a “revenge” game for ATL would be a bit of an understatement I think, as TO has won five of the last six in the series, including a blowout 128-84 victory in the first meeting of the season on December 3rd. In the loss to the Magic, Hawks’ big man Dwight Howard had 20 points and 16 boards. So far Atlanta is ranked 23rd in the league in scoring at 101.6 PPG. It’s better on the defensive end, conceding 103.4 PPG, ranked 14th. Paul Milsap leads the charge with 17 points, 8.3 boards and 3.6 assists per night. The Raptors are third overall in scoring at 111.9 PPG and 12th in scoring defense, conceding 103 PPG. DeMar DeRozan leads the Raptors with 28 points and 5.2 boards per contest. Simply put, I think Atlanta is the “hungrier” and more motivated team today. It plays with revenge after getting destroyed by Toronto earlier in the month and it’s also out to atone for its lacklustre effort against the Magic. Success breeds complacency. I think the Raptors have a small mental letdown here and leave the back door open just wide enough for Atlanta to sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-16 | Knicks v. Warriors -14.5 | Top | 90-103 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Golden State Warriors (10:35 EST). The 14-11 New York Knicks are in Golden State to take on the 22-4 Warriors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Warriors bounced back from a loss at Memphis to win their last two games, over Minnesota and New Orleans respectively. New York had won six of seven before an OT loss in Phoenix on Tuesday and suffice it to say, I’m expecting another letdown here. Momentum is difficult to attain and once lost, is even harder to get back. I’ll point out that New York is just 1-3 ATS in its last four on the road and only 1-4 ATS in its last five as an underdog, while Golden State is 12-8 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more and 6-3 ATS this season as a home fav of 12.5 points or more. It’s a tough road trip for New York, with a game in Denver on Saturday and it’s not too hard to imagine the team getting caught looking ahead. Conversely, after a somewhat difficult five-game road trip behind them, I’m expecting the Warriors to come out fired up in the opener of a three-game home stand. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-14-16 | Kings +9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 98-132 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Sacramento Kings (8:05 EST). Sacramento has won two of its last four, including a 116-92 victory over the Lakers on Monday. Houston enters off a 122-118 win over the Nets on Monday and is poised for a letdown here after posting its seventh win in a row. The Kings would hold the Lakers to just 39 percent from the field and were led by DeMarcus Cousins, who had 31 points, 16 boards, five assists, three blocks and two steals. Houston looked poor defensively against the Nets, allowing Brooklyn to shoot 52 percent from the field. James Harden was two rebounds away from a triple-double. I’ll point out that Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 3-1-1 ATS in its last five against the Southwest division, while Houston is just 16-23 ATS in its last 39 after three or more consecutive SU victories. Cousins is a man possessed right now and I think he and the Kings can keep this one competitive in facing the Rockets poor defense. Grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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12-14-16 | Raptors v. 76ers +8.5 | 123-114 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia 76ers (7:05 EST). The 17-7 Toronto Raptors are in Philadelphia to take on the 6-18 76ers and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side. I believe the high-flying Raptors “look past” the lowly 76ers tonight. Toronto comes in have won three straight and nine of its last ten after besting the Bucks 122-100 at home on Monday. I had the Raptors in that one. The only loss during that stretch came at home to the Cavaliers and I had a play on Cleveland in that particular contest. Note that Toronto ranks among the best on the offensive end, averaging 111.5 PPG, but defensively it’s middle of the pack, allowing 102.6. Philadelphia comes in with a ton of momentum after winning back-to-back road games. In their most recent win over the Pistons, the 76ers held a 42-34 edge on the boards. Robert Convington led the way with 16 points to lead six other players in double figures. I’ll point out that the Raptors are just 4-6 ATS in their last ten as a road fav in the 6.5 to nine points range, while Philadelphia is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog in the same points range. For all of the reasons mentioned above, I’m backing the home side in this matchup. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-13-16 | Wolves +7.5 v. Bulls | Top | 99-94 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:00 EST). The 6-18 Minnesota Timberwolves are in Chicago to take on the 13-10 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I believe the Wolves will be the “hungrier” team today, they enter off their fourth straight loss, most recently a hard-fought 116-108 home setback to the Warriors on Friday. Chicago on the other hand looks poised for a letdown here after winning its second straight, this time a 105-100 victory over Miami on Saturday. But if recent history is any precedence, then the visitors have to be loving their chances for an outright victory today as they’d take both meetings last year, including a 112-105 win in the last matchup on February 6th, 2016 in Chicago. Minnesota will be especially motivated after letting a late lead slip away in the fourth quarter against Golden State. Note that Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine each had 25 points in the setback. Chicago got 31 points, seven boards, five assists and three steals from Jimmy Butler in the win over Miami. I’ll point out that Minnesota is 4-1 ATS this year after three more consecutive SU losses, while Chicago is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records. With two nights off before a home-and-home set with Milwaukee, I think the home side comes in a bit complacent here. Conversely, the hungry Wolves are desperate to break the slide and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Wolves. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-16 | Blazers +9.5 v. Clippers | Top | 120-121 | Win | 100 | 30 h 11 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Portland Trailblazers (10:30 EST). The 12-13 Portland Trail Blazers are in LA to take on the 17-7 Clippers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I think Portland, which has dropped three straight, will be the “hungrier” team today and am expecting that determination to at the very least, lead to a solid cover for the visitors tonight. LA broke a three-game slide with a blowout win over New Orleans on Saturday. Portland will be especially motivated here after letting sizeable fourth quarter leads slip away, most recently a disappointing setback to the Pacers: “This wasn’t a normal loss,” Blazers guard C.J. McCollum said after. “We’ve had a lot of these games we should win, games we’re up double digits and they make more plays than us down the stretch, they make more hustle plays. They make aggressive moves toward the basket, they get fouls. They finish the game and we don’t.” LA blew out the Hornets and Chris Paul led the way with 20 points, 20 assists and zero turnovers. But with a three game road trip on the horizon, I think the Clippers get caught “looking ahead.” And I’ll point out that Portland is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three consecutive SU losses, while LA is just 6-17 ATS in its last 24 as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. While I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely think this is too many points to be giving up. Play on Portland. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-16 | Nets +15 v. Rockets | 118-122 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Brooklyn Nets (8:00 EST). The 6-16 Brooklyn Nets are in Houston to take on the 17-7 Rockets and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the visitors. The Nets lost for the 11th time in their last 13 in a 130-101 setback at San Antonio on Saturday. The Rockets though looked poised for a letdown here after six straight wins, most recently a 109-87 victory at home over Dallas. Brooklyn can score with the best of them, it averages 106 PPG, which is ranked a respectable tenth in the league. Where the team lacks severely is on the defensive end, ranked dead last in conceding an average of 114.9 PPG. Brook Lopez leads the way with 19.8 points a night. Houston ranks second in the league in scoring with 111.6 PPG and is 18th in scoring defense in allowing 105.7 PPG. James Harden leads the team with 27.8 PPG, 7.6 boards and 11.6 assists per night. Note though that Brooklyn is 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog, while Houston is just 15-26 ATS in its last 41 following a divisional contest. I think the Rockets come into this one complacent and the high-scoring Nets keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-16 | Bucks v. Raptors -8.5 | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 27 h 11 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:30 EST). The 11-11 Milwaukee Bucks are in Toronto to take on the 16-7 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. These teams come in trending in opposite directions, as the Bucks have lost two straight, most recently a 110-105 setback at Washington, while the Raptors won their second straight and eight in their last nine with a 101-94 road victory in Boston on Friday. If recent history is any precedence, then Toronto has to be liking its chances today as it’s won five straight in the series, including a 105-99 win in the first meeting this year on November 25th. Milwaukee is led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, with 21.9 points, nine boards, 5.9 assists, 1.95 steals and 2.14 blocks. The Bucks though are ranked 16th overall offensively with 104.2 PPG. They’re a bit better on the defensive end, ranked 13th overall in conceding 102.7 PPG. The only loss in the Raptors current run has come against the Cavaliers last week (I had Cleveland in that one). Note that Toronto is fourth in the league in scoring with a 111 points per game average, while the Raptors clock in at 12th on the defensive end, giving up 102.7 PPG. I’ll point out that the Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record, while Toronto is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games against a team with a road win percentage of less than .400 and a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four when playing on two days of rest. Milwaukee is out of gas right now, it blew a 20 point half time lead in losing to Atlanta at home on Friday and then stumbled on the road in Washington. I think the home side takes full advantage and keeps the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-16 | Knicks v. Lakers +2.5 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Lakers (9:35 EST). The 13-10 New York Knicks are in Los Angeles to take on the 10-15 Lakers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Knicks are poised for a letdown in my opinion after winning five of their last six, most recently a 103-100 victory on the road in Sacramento. Conversely, the Lakers will be risking life and limb tonight to get back into the win column after droping five straight, most recently a 119-115 home setback to Phoenix on Friday. New York is 15th in the league in scoring (104.2) and tied for 23rd in scoring defense (106.9). LA is 11th in the NBA in scoring (104.9) and 27th in scoring defense (110.7). I’ll point out though that New York is just 1-3 ATS in its last four on the road, while LA is 2-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. I think from a situational stand point, they don’t get much better than this. Despite injuries to some key players, I think the “hungrier” team gets the job done ATS tonight. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-16 | Nets v. Spurs -14 | Top | 101-130 | Win | 100 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:35 EST). The 6-15 Brooklyn Nets are in San Antonio to take on the 18-5 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Brooklyn enters off a home win over Denver, but has yet to win two games in a row this season. San Antonio’s four-game win skein ended in a loss at Chicago on Thursday, so any sort of a “letdown” in its first game back home has been nullified. Brooklyn is in a rebuilding mode, so the pressure is off coach Kenny Atkinson, who has been tasked to build the team from the ground up. San Antonio on the other hand is coming off its first road loss of the year, coming one victory away from matching the league’s best-ever road start. I’ll point out that Brooklyn is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five road games and only 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 road games against teams with winning home records, while San Antonio is 14-9 ATS in its last 23 after playing three consecutive road games. Spurs coach Greg Popovich unloaded on his team after the loss to the Bulls: “We haven’t learned as a group that the game is 48 minutes,” Popovich said during his tirade. I think San Antonio bounces back here and steamrolls the lowly Nets. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-16 | Pacers v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE BLOWOUT SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas has been a disaster this year, it’s just 4-17 overall and has lost two in a row. Indiana is 11-11 and has also struggled with consistency on both ends of the court this season. Indiana looks poised for a letdown here though after earning a road victory over the lowly Suns on Wednesday. Paul George had 25 points in the win. Note though that the Pacers are near the bottom of the league in scoring defense, conceding 107.3 PPG, ranked sixth worst overall. Dallas enters off an embarrasing 120-89 blowout loss at home to Sacramento. I had the Kings in that one. The Mavs are among the league worst in most offensive and defensive categories and I won’t try to convince you that they’re a decent team which has just caught a few bad breaks, as that’s not the case. Dallas is a poor team. But Indiana is not a “good” team either. It’s shown flashes every now and then, but overall it’s been consistently inconsistent. I simply think this sets up as a classic “letdown/look-ahead” spot for the visitors, who play the final game of a five-game road trip, before then heading home for a contest tomorrow night against Portland. I’ll also point out that Indiana is already just 4-7 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more, while Dallas is interestingly, 4-2 ATS in its last six against the Central division. A great situational play, grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-16 | Nuggets v. Wizards -5 | Top | 85-92 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Wizards (7:00 EST). The 8-14 Denver Nuggets are in Washington to take on the 7-13 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. No need to overthink this one I don’t think. Washington has lost three of its last four after falling 124-116 at home to the Magic on Tuesday and is clearly hungry for a victory. The home side also plays with double revenge after dropping both games to the Nuggets last year, including a 117-113 setback in Washington on January 28th, 2016. But if all of those motivational and situational factors weren’t enough, Denver comes into this one having also played just last night in Brooklyn, losing 116-111. Clearly the Nuggets are going to be “gassed.” I’ll also point out that Denver is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven when playing on back-to-back days, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range. This is in fact the Nuggets third road game in the last four nights. The Wizards have had a day off to look at themselves in the mirror and must take advantage of this situation. And that’s exactly what I expect them to do, lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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12-07-16 | Kings -3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-89 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Sacramento Kings (8:30 EST). The Kings are looking to snap a three-game slide and a date against the lowly, undermanned Mavs is just what the doctor ordered to get off the schneid. Sacramento most recently fell 106-98 to New York on Sunday. DeMarcus Cousins had 36 points and 12 boards. Dallas fell 109-101 to Charlotte on Monday and lost center Andrew Bogut to a knee injury in the process. Dallas would go on to get outrebounded 55-35. Harrison Barnes was a bright spot, finishing with 29 points. Dirk Nowitzki missed his fifth straight game, while JJ Barea missed his tenth in a row. I’ll point out that Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss and 7-1 ATS in its last eight after a SU loss, while Dallas is 0-4 ATS in its last four after scoring 100 points or more in its previous contest. The Kings averaged 116.3 points in taking three of four in this series last year and I’m expecting a similar blowout tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-07-16 | Cavs -5 v. Knicks | 126-94 | Win | 100 | 29 h 15 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:00 EST). The 14-5 Cleveland Cavaliers are in New York to take on the 11-9 Knicks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Cavs come in with momentum after beating the Raptors 116-112 on the road on Monday, the victory would snap a three-game slide. New York on the other hand comes in off a very satisfying 114-103 victory in Miami just last night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. If recent history is any precedence, then the Cavs have to be loving their chances today as when these teams met on October 25th, Cleveland would come away with an easy 117-88 victory. Last time out it was LeBron James that led the way for Cleveland, pouring in 34 points, grabbing eight boards and dishing out seven assists. Note that Cleveland is fourth in the NBA in scoring at 110.3 PPG. The Cavs rank in the middle of the pack defensively, conceding an average of 105.1 PPG. Kyrie Irving leads all players with 24.4 PPG. Also note that Cleveland is second in the league in made threes with 13.4 triples per game. New York is tied for 15th in scoring at 104.3 PPG and is 22nd in scoring defense, conceding an average of 106.4 PPG. I’ll point out that Cleveland is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 off an upset win as an underdog, while New York is just 6-8 ATS as an underdog this season. I think the Cavs build off their last performance and catch the Knicks a little flat-footed as they come in tired on the second game of the back-to-back. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-07-16 | Blazers +2 v. Bucks | 107-115 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 15 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Portland Trailblazers (8:00 EST). While I obviously would not be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points as I expect the visitors to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. The Blazers come in having won three in a row. The Bucks have been trading good performances with bad all year and are floating right around .500 right now. Last time out Portland scored a 112-110 win on the road in Chicago on Monday night. Guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum combined for 54 points. The Blazers average 110.3 PPG, which is tied for fourth most in the league. Note that Portland has put up almost 117 PPG over a six-game stretch. Milwaukee on the other hand comes into this one deflated after letting a 48-35 lead at halftime against the Spurs go to waste, eventually succumbing 97-96. Milwaukee ranks as one of the best defensively, giving up an average of just 101.5 PPG, which ranks in the top ten. The Bucks though have struggled with offensive consistency from game to game. I’ll point out that Portland is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 off an upset win as an underdog, while Milwaukee is just 3-4 ATS as a favorite this year and only 2-4 ATS after a non-conference game. I think the visitors build off their latest victory, while Milwaukee takes a step back after its crushing defeat to San Antonio. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-16 | Knicks v. Heat -1 | Top | 114-103 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Miami Heat (7:35 EST). The 11-9 New York Knicks are in Miami to take on the 7-13 Heat and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the “hungrier” home side. After winning three straight and six of their last eight after downing the Kings 106-98 at home on Sunday, I think the Knicks have a predictable letdown here. While New York is 9-3 at home this year, it’s just 2-6 on the road. It isn’t overly spectacular on either end of the floor, ranked 15th in scoring with an average of 104.3 PPG, while ranked 22nd in scoring defense, conceding 106.4 PPG. Carmelo Anthony leads the way with 22.5 points, plus 6.2 boards per game for the Knicks. The Heat can empathize, they’ve also struggled with consistency on both ends of the court this year. In their latest loss to the Trailblazers, big man Hassan Whiteside had 28 points, 16 boards and five blocks. Miami averages just 97.1 PPG, ranked 28th overall. The defense though has been solid all year, it concedes an average of just 98.8 PPG, ranked sixth. I’ll point out that New York is just 3-5 ATS on the road this season, while Miami is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 versus good offensive teams which score 99 plus points per contest. With a game at home against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers tomorrow night, I think the visitors get caught looking ahead to that one. A great situational play, I’m backing the Heat. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-16 | Cavs v. Raptors -2 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* CA$H BOMB is on the Toronto Raptors (7:30 EST). The 13-5 Cleveland Cavaliers are in Toronto to take on the 14-6 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Cavs come into this one with zero momentum, most recently dropping their third straight in a 111-105 setback to Chicago on Friday. Meanwhile, Toronto enters on absolute fire, it’s won six straight, most recently a 128-84 drubbing of the Hawks on Saturday. These teams have played twice this year, and the Cavs have prevailed each time (94-91 in Toronto on October 28th and 121-117 at home on November 15th). Of course, it was the Cavs that knocked Toronto off in six games of the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago as well. The “revenge factor” working in favor of the home side is off the charts tonight. These teams are trending in opposite directions right now and while the Cavs will clearly get things turned around sooner than later, I don’t think that’s going to happen tonight in this hostile environment. Toronto posted its biggest win in franchise history last time out, with eight players scoring in double figures. I’ll point out that Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four away from friendly confines, while Toronto is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six North of the border and 5-0 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the home side tonight and I expect it to take full advantage. Play on the Raptors. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-16 | Magic v. Pistons -7 | Top | 98-92 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Pistons (6:05 EST). The 8-12 Orlando Magic are in Detroit to take on the 11-10 PIstons and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Magic beat the 76ers 105-88 on Friday, while the Pistons won their third straight on the road and fifth in their last six overall by crushing the Hawks 121-85 on the same night. If recent history is any precedence, then Detroit has to be loving its chances for a fourth straight win, as it’s taken seven straight in the series, including a convincing 108-82 beatdown in the first matchup this year. Orlando is the one that looks poised for a letdown here, despite the victory over the lowly 76ers, note that the team still averages only 92.9 PPG, ranked second to last in the league. The Magic get the job done on the defensive end of the court, conceding an average of just 97.3 PPG, which ranks third overall. Last time out for Detroit, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope led eight other players in double figures with 23 points and eight boards. The Pistons average 100.4 PPG, but conceded just 96.9, ranked second overall. Tobia Harris leads Detroit with 17.1 points and 4.9 boards per outing, while Marcus Morris chips in 14 points and four boards. I’ll point out that Orlando is just 1-4 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest, just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more and only 1-9 ATS in its last ten following an ATS victory, while Detroit is 5-1 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more, 3-0 ATS after allowing 85 points or less and 3-0 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. The Magic are just 4-6 SU on the road, while the Pistons are 7-2 at home this season. I think the home side continues its hot run and pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-16 | Lakers v. Grizzlies | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:00 EST). The 10-11 LA Lakers are in Memphis to take on the 12-8 Grizzlies and for a number of different reasons (despite several injuries to key players), I think this one favors the home side. LA isn’t surprising anyone anymore, last night it lost its fourth in its last six after getting destroyed 113-80 by the Raptors on the road. I had a play on LA in that one and while I don’t normally ever “flip-flop,” on a team, I always remain flexible with my approach (especially in the regular season) and for the most part analyze contests by a “game by game” basis. Conversely, Memphis enters this one with momentum after breaking a three game slide with a 95-94 home win over Orlando on Thursday. LA averages 106.6 PPG, but allows 109.6. Lou Williams leads the way with 16.7 points plus 3.5 assists a night off the bench. The Grizzlies would outscore the Magic 30-26 in the fourth quarter to score the 1-point win. The hungry home side would force 17 turnovers and big man Marc Gasol finished with 25 points and five blocks. So far Memphis averages just 97.2 PPG. The Grizzlies get the job done with tough defensive play though, allowing just 98.3 PPG, good for fifth in the league. I’ll point out that LA is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road fav of three points or less, while Memphis is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 as a home dog of three points or less. LA is dealing with a few injuries as well, so while Memphis may be injured, it’s still very dangerous in this position. LA played just 24 hours previous in Eastern Canada and had to fly half way around the country for this one. I’m banking on the Grizzlies to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-16 | Wizards +9.5 v. Spurs | Top | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizards (8:30 EST0. The 6-11 Washington Wizards are in San Antonio to take on the 15-4 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Wizards will be in a particularly foul mood today after letting a 7-point lead slip away late in regulation, eventually falling 126-115 in OT in OKC. They’re also out for revenge after SA beat them 112-110 at home last Saturday night. Washington would waste another big effort from guard Bradley Beal, who had 31 points in the loss to the Thunder. Markieff Morris also had a big game, added 19 points and seven boards. So far the Wiz average 102.8 PPG. After Orlando beat SA by 12 on Tuesday, the Spurs would bounce back with a lacklustre 94-87 win over the Mavericks on the road on Wednesday. Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard had 21 points and seven boards against the Mavs, but was just 5 of 16 overall. I’ll point out that San Antonio is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven at home and only 9-19-1 ATS in its last 29 when playing on one days rest, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four when trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. The Spurs have struggled with game-to-game consistency and I think the hungry visitors will give them everything they can handle tonight. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-16 | Lakers +10.5 v. Raptors | 80-113 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Lakers (7:30 EST). The 10-10 LA Lakers are in Toronto to take on the 12-6 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. LA is coming off a confidence building 96-90 road win in Chicago on Wednesday, while Toronto is coming off its fourth straight victory in a 120-105 effort over the undermanned Grizzlies on Wednesday night. LA would hold Chicago to just 35.2 percent shooting, including 4 of 21 from down town. The Lakers also controlled the glass by a dominant 62-46 margin. Jordan Clarkson and Lou Williams led the way with 18 points apiece. So for the Lakers average 106.6 PPG, ranked eighth overall. LA struggles defensively, conceding an average of 109.6, but clearly the unit took a big step in the right direction in its latest victory. Toronto guard Kyle Lowry led the way over Memphis with 29 points and eight assists. Toronto averages 109.7 PPG, while conceding 104.3. DeMar DeRozan leads the team with 28.9 PPG. I’ll point out that the Lakers are 4-1 ATS in non-conference games this year, while the Raptors are just 4-5 ATS in the same position. I think the visitors can “hang” with the home side here and while I’ll stop short in predicting the outright upset, everything does indeed point to a comfortable cover for the Lakers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-16 | Kings +7 v. Celtics | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Sacramento Kings (7:30 EST). The 7-11 Sacramento Kings are in Boston to take on the 10-8 Celtics and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Sacramento comes into this one with a little extra time off, as its game against Philadelphia was postponed due to condensation on the floor, the contest will be made up at a later date. This is a great little situational factor which I think will be a big difference maker tonight. The home side comes in with zero momentum, most recently losing a third straight, this time 121-114 to the Pistons on Wednesday. In their most recent game against the Wizards, the Kings would eventually succumb in the overtime period. Big man DeMarcus Cousins led the way with 36 points and 20 boards. So far Sacramento is ranked 17th overall in the league in scoring with 103.2 PPG. The defense is ranked 19th, conceding 105.2. I’ll point out though that Sacramento is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning record, while Boston is interestingly, just 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Pacific division. Boston has struggled with consistency and will have its hands full today with this well rested and re-focused Kings’ team. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to grab the points in the end. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-16 | Clippers +5 v. Cavs | Top | 113-94 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the LA Clippers (8:00 EST). The 14-5 LA Clippers are in Cleveland to take on the 13-3 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I think that LA is the much more motivated side tonight after three-straight losses, most recently a 127-122 double OT road setback in Brooklyn on Tuesday. And I think that this does in fact set up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Cavs, as they had their four-game win streak snapped with a lacklustre 118-101 setback at Milwaukee on Tuesday. And despite this being a non-conference contest, this does set up as a bit of a “revenge” scenario for the visitors, who have lost four straight in the series, including a 114-90 setback in Cleveland on March 14th, 2016. It should be noted as well that in the loss to the Nets, star forward Blake Griffin was given the night off for rest and to prepare for this one. LA is a tough, deep team which ranks seventh in scoring defense in allowing just 98.9 PPG. The offense is ranked sixth with an average of 108.6. The Cavs are second in the league in scoring with 111.3 PPG. They’re 14th in scoring defense by allowing 103.8 PPG. I’ll point out that the Clippers are 9-6 ATS in their last 15 as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while Cleveland is just 1-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season. With a three game road trip against the best in the East which starts tomorrow night in Chicago, there’s no question that this also sets up as a “look ahead” spot for the home side. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on the Clippers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-30-16 | Wizards +5.5 v. Thunder | Top | 115-126 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Wizards (8:05 EST). The 6-10 Wizards are in Oklahoma City to take on the 11-8 Thunder and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the visitors. Washington has started to turn things around of late as it would win for the third time in four games by besting the Kings 101-95 in OT at home on Monday. OKC also comes in on a three-game win skein after defeating the Knicks 112-103 on the road on Monday (I had the Thunder in that one). Despite this being a non-conference game, it still does set up as a “revenge” scenario for the visitors, who have lost four straight in the series, including both matchups last year. The Wizards would knock down 10 of 25 three point attempts in their latest win, while holding the Kings to just 3 of 21 shooting. Guard Bradley Beal had 31 points, including a career-high seven three-pointers. As Russell Westbrook goes, so go the Thunder. In the win over New York he posted his eighth triple-double of the year with 27 points, 18 boards and 14 assists. I’ll point out though that Washington is already 3-1 ATS this season following a non-conference game, while OKC is just 2-6 ATS this year in the same position and only 7-8 ATS when playing the role of favorite. With three whole days off before a game at home against the Hornets, I think the Thunder take the foot off the gas and get caught looking ahead to the extra time off. Washington has been playing much better in all phases and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Play on the Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
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11-30-16 | Grizzlies +11.5 v. Raptors | Top | 105-120 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Memphis Grizzlies (7:35 EST). The 11-7 Memphis Grizzlies are in Toronto to take on the 11-6 Raptors and while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the visitors. Memphis most recently lost 104-85 to the Hornets on Monday, while Toronto smashed the 76ers 122-95 at home on the same night. The Grizz play with a bit of the revenge factor on their side this evening after dropping both games to the Raptors last season. The reason the Grizzlies are getting so many points here is that guard Mike Conley is out. The team is also without the servics of James Ennis and Chandler Parsons. I simply feel this is a bad “spot” for Toronto though and expect it to get caught a little complacent. The Raptors have hit a “vanilla” part of their schedule, with the lowly Lakers at home on Saturday up next. And note that despite averaging just 96.9 PPG this season, the Grizzlies allow just 97.3 PPG, which ranks third overall. Toronto averages 109.1 PPG, good for fifth overall. But note that the Raptors concede an average of 104.3 PPG, ranked 16th overall. I’ll point out that Memphis is a perfect 3-0 ATS this year after scoring 85 points or less, while Toronto is just 3-4 ATS in all non-conference games. This one sets up as a bit of a trap for Toronto. I’m banking on the visitors keeping this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, so grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-29-16 | Rockets -2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 101-120 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Houston Rockets (9:00 EST). The 11-6 Houston Rockets are in Utah to take on the 9-8 Jazz and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Houston has been surprisingly good on the road this year and I expect that trend of strong play to continue tonight, as note that the Rockets have won three straight away from friendly confines. In fact, Houston has won five of its last six, including a convincing 111-102 victory at home over Utah ten days ago. The Jazz are the NBA’s leading defensive team, but I think they come out flat and tired after their high-scoring 112-103 win in Minnesota just last night. And that’s bad news against a Rockets team which averages 109.8 PPG, ranked third overall. Keep your eyes on James Harden of course, he leads the NBA in assists and is fourth in scoring at 28.9 per game. The Rockets most recently beat the Blazers by 16, posting 130 points in the process. Utah leads the league in several defensive categories, but as I stated off the top, I simply feel this is a bad spot for the Jazz, as note that they’re already just 1-6 ATS as an underdog this year and 2-6 ATS against teams with winning records. And note that Houston has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 8-0 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more and 5-3 ATS against clubs with winning records. I’m laying the points with confidence and expect a wire-to-wire rout. Good luck…Larry |
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11-28-16 | Thunder +1 v. Knicks | Top | 112-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK is on OKC (7:30 EST). The 10-8 Oklahoma City Thunder are in New York to take on the 8-8 Knicks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. OKC comes in with momentum, it’s now won two straight after dispatching the Pistons 106-88 at home on Saturday. The Knicks enter off a 107-102 road loss at Charlotte on Saturday night. After dropping seven of their previous nine, the Thunder have seemingly turned the corner once again, perhaps most impressive in the win over the Pistons was that they’d hold them to just 45.1 percent shooting and only 1 of 19 from 3-point range. The Knicks have been better at home this year, but they’re still giving up an average of 106.3 PPG, ranked 22nd overall. I’ll point out that OKC is 4-2 ATS in its last six after a win by ten points or more, while New York is just 1-2 ATS in its last three against good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. I like Russell Westbrook and company to do just enough at the end of the night. Play on the Thunder. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-16 | Hawks -4 v. Lakers | Top | 94-109 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONF SUPER SIDE is on the Atlanta Hawks (9:35 EST). LA has lost four of its last five as it continues to deal with numerous injuries. D’Angelo Russell has already missed the last three games and forward Julius Randle and guard Nick Young were both out in Friday’s 24 point loss to the Warriors. If Young or Randle do somehow manage to play today, clearly they won’t be at 100% capacity. The Hawks will look to take advantage and also to avenge a 123-116 loss at home to the Lakers on November 2nd. Atlanta will look to push the pace as LA is allowing an average of 111.9 PPG, which ranks it 28th in the league (in fact, opponents are shooting 48.7 percent, which ranks the Lakers dead last). The Hawks will be especially motivated here, they’re 10-6 and still lead the Southeast Division, but have lost four of their last five, including a humbling 95-68 beatdown loss to the Jazz on Friday. I’ll point out though that Atlanta is 19-11 ATS in its last 30 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while LA is just 3-5 ATS against clubs with winning records this season. I think there are enough situational and motivational factors working in favor of the visitors today to confidently pull the trigger on this top rated 10* selection. Play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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11-23-16 | Raptors +3 v. Rockets | Top | 115-102 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Toronto Raptors (8:05 EST). Toronto has struggled defensively of late, but has still averaged 113 points over its last five games. Most recently the Raptors fell 123-115 to the Clippers in LA on Monday night: "It seems like everybody we've played the last couple weeks we've turned it into an offensive slugfest," Raptors coach Dwane Casey said. "Until we get defense in the game and maintain in the game (things will remain the same). I think our guys are trying. They're trying defensively but we're not getting it done. We're not getting stops when we need to." Houston is poised for a letdown here after three straight victories, most recently a 99-96 win at Detroit on Monday night. The Rockets’ James Harden is having a tremendous season, but note that he’s shooting just 73.9 percent from the line over the last four games. The Raptors’ DeMar DeRozan continues to lead the league in scoring, so I’m calling him and Harden a “wash” tonight. I’ll point out though that Toronto is 4-1 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog, while Houston is a deplorable 13-21 ATS in its last 34 after three or more consecutive victories. With a large Western road trip starting on Thursday night, I think that the home side gets caught looking ahead and the hungry Raptors at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-16 | Jazz +5 v. Rockets | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Utah Jazz (5:05 EST). Houston is 7-5 and comes in off a win against the struggling Trailblazers. The Rockets have been all over the map as far as their game-to-game consistency is concerned. Utah is 7-6 and has been plagued by the injury bug early. After a successful five-game Eastern road swing, the Jazz come into this one having lost two straight at home. Note that Utah is 5-3 on the road this year though. Point guard George Hill is out, but second-year guard Dante Exum has done decently, averaging nine points and two assists. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on Jazz forward Gordon Hayward. I’ll point out that Utah is already 4-2 ATS this year against poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest, while Houston is just 1-2 ATS following a win by ten points or more. With another tough game tomorrow night in Denver, I’m expecting the visitors to leave everything on the floor tonight and to at the very least, come away with the comfortable ATS victory. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-16 | Blazers +4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Portland Trailblazers (8:05 EST). The Rockets played and lost just last night in OKC, 105-103 and suffice it to say, I think an upset is in the works this evening as well. Thunder guard Russell Westbrook went off for 30 points, seven boards and nine assists against the Rockets. Now Houston has to try and contain the Blazers’ Damian Lillard, who is ranked fifth in scoring in the NBA (29.8 points) and eighth in usage rate at 32.6 percent. The Rockets struggled to score in the fourth period, running out of gas and it obviously isn’t going to get any easier tonight in playing the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Note that Houston posted just 13 points in the final frame last night, missing nine consecutive shots at one point. And that’s music to Portland’s ears, as it’s struggled with defensive consistency this season, ranked 29th in scoring defense and 27th in defensive rating: “Our defensive rebounding is a concern," Portland coach Terry Stotts stated yesterday. "It's addressed and we've got to get better and focus on it." I’ll point out though that Portland is 14-9 ATS in its last 23 after playing three consecutive home games, while Houston is just 19-22 ATS in its last 41 when playing on back-to-back days. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-16 | Cavs v. Pacers +4.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indiana Pacers (7:00 EST). I successfully played on the Raptors against the Cavaliers last night and they’d manage to score the cover once it was all said and done. Cleveland is playing amazing basketball right now, but I think the stage is set for an upset tonight. Indiana has struggled defensively this year, it came into its contest with Orlando on Monday giving up 108 PPG. But the Pacers took a big step forward in the defensive department and held the Magic to a season-low 69 points in the victory. And note, despite the overall losing record Indiana is 5-1 at home this year. Before beating the Pacers in Indianapolis last February, LeBron James’ teams hadn’t won a regular-season game in Indiana since February 2012. It’s a prime spot for a letdown for the defending champs. So far Cleveland has risen to almost every challenge to open the season, but last night’s game was a war down to the final bucket and I think the team will be gassed this evening. I’ll point out that Cleveland is just 7-16 ATS in its last 23 as a road fav of 3.5 to six points and only 14-28 ATS in its last 42 against the division, while Indian is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as a home dog in the 3.5 to six points range and 22-12 ATS in its last 34 against the division. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-16 | Raptors +5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 117-121 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Raptors (7:00 EST). DeMar DeRozan (the Eastern Conference’s Player of the Week after averaging 34.7 points on 54 percent shooting during Toronto’s 3-0 week) and the Raptors come to Cleveland firing on all cylinders and looking for a little revenge after falling to the Cavs on their home floor earlier in the season. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I think the visitors at the very least, take this one down to the wire and cover comfortably with the spread. DeRozan has now become the first player to score at least 30 poitns in eight of his first nine games to start a season since Michal Jordan did it back in 1986. The Cavs have been fantastic this year as well, they’re now on pace to make more 3-pointers than any team in history. But note that Cleveland is just 1-3 ATS this year against teams with winning records and just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 as a home fav of 3.5 to six points. And note that Toronto is 3-1 ATS in its last four against clubs with winning records and 3-0 ATS on the road this season. These two Eastern Conference favs are destined for another playoff battle this year, but if Toronto has any hopes of playing for the league title, it’s going to have to find a way to win in Cleveland. The stage is now set for that to happen, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-14-16 | Heat +11 v. Spurs | Top | 90-94 | Win | 100 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Miami Heat. Miami plays with revenge today after falling 106-99 at home to the Spurs earlier in the season. San Antonio comes in off back-to-back wins, most recently a satisfying 106-100 victory in Houston, revenging a home loss to the Rockets a week previous. The “aura” surrounding the Spurs’ home court advantage is completely gone now, although they did end a three-game home losing streak with a win over Detroit on Friday. The Heat are just 2-6 and will be desperate for a victory today. While I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do think that the intensity level in which the visitors play with tonight will keep this one competitive until the final moments. Most recently Miami fell 102-91 to a streaking Jazz team at home on Saturday. Heat big man Hassan Whiteside has been a bright spot, he’s now the only player in league history to start a season grabbing double-digit rebounds over the first eight games. It’s hard to imagine San Anontio “looking past” the Heat today, but with a two-game conference road trip starting in Sacraemento on Wednesday and against the resurgent Lakers on Friday, the possibility does definitely exist for that to occur on some small level. I’ll point out that Miami is 29-20 ATS in its last 49 following a loss by ten points or more, while San Antonio is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 105 points or more. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-16 | Lakers v. Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 126-99 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New Orleans Pelicans (7:05 EST). The Pelicans got off the schneid with a 112-106 road win over the Bucks last time out and suffice it to say, I think the team carries that confidence over and ultimately finds a way to get the job done in front of the home town crowd tonight. LA comes in off a 101-91 victory over the Kings on Thursday, but with a game tomorrow night at Minnesota, I think this young team gets caught “looking ahead.” Keep your eyes on Pelicans’ forward Anthony Davis, who had 32 points and grabbed eight boards in the victory over Milwaukee. And note, it’s true that New Orleans is just 1-8 to start the year, but their margin of defeat in eight of its losses has been by 6.0 points. I’ll also point out that LA is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after a win by ten points or more, while New Orleans is 30-17 ATS in its last 47 against the Pacific division. The Lakers have been an early surprise, but I think they come back down to Earth tonight. Play on New Orleans. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-16 | Pacers v. 76ers +5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* 33-Club Play is on the Philadelphia 76ers (7:00 EST). Philadelphia is the East’s lone winless team at 0-7, most recently dropping a tough 122-115 OT game to the Pacers on Wednesday in Indiana. I think the home side comes into this one fired up though as it looks to avenge that frustrating setback and to also finally get off the schneid. And while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as the 76ers have lost ten of the last 11 in the series. Also note, Sixers center Joel Embiid was rested on Wednesday, but is expected to play tonight. Embiid averages a team-leading 17.6 PPG. With a date at home against Boston tomorrow night, I think the Pacers get caught “looking ahead” and Philadelphia does just enough to at the very least, sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-16 | Lakers +4.5 v. Kings | Top | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 32 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers (10:35 EST). To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as Sacramento has won seven straight in the series. Sacramento enters off a 102-94 victory over New Orleans on Tuesday. The Kings have shown flashes of brilliance at times this year, but they’ve also looked very poor in others, holding three opponents to under 100 points, but they’ve surrendered an average of 107 points in their five setbacks. LA’s fifth ranked offense will look to take advantage, so far the Lakers average 108.6 PPG and a victory tonight would give them four wins in a five-game stretch. I’ll point out that LA is 4-2 ATS in its last six off an upset loss as a favorite, while Sacramento is interestingly, just 1-3 ATS this year against poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest. With a game tomorrow night at Portland and with matchups against San Antonio, the Clippers and Raptors on the horizon, I think the home side gets caught “looking past” the lowly Lakers, who at the very least, keep this one close enough to cover down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-09-16 | Raptors +3.5 v. Thunder | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (8:05 EST). I think DeMar DeRozan and the Toronto Raptors are a good matchup for OKC and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Like Thunder’ star Russell Westbrook, DeRozan pushes the pace and likes to keep his opponents on their heels. Toronto is out to atone for a loss to the Kings on Sunday night, as big man DeMarcus Cousins went off for 22 points, 14 boards and three blocked shots. Toronto was without the services of big man Jonas Valanciunas, but he could be back in the line-up tonight. Whether Valanciunas suits up or not, I still think that Toronto has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. The Thunder have so far been very effective defensively, but the unit is about to face a stiff test in DeRozan’s faster pace. I’ll point out that Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five off an upset loss as a favorite, while OKC is just 58-67 ATS the last two season against good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. Grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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11-09-16 | Rockets +7.5 v. Spurs | Top | 101-99 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Rockets (9:35 EST). Houston comes to town with a ton of momentum, having won two straight, most recently a 114-106 victory over the Wizards on Monday. The Spurs won 40 of 41 regular season games at home last year, but have dropped two straight at the AT&T Center, most recently a humbling 114-92 setback to the Clippers. San Antonio allowed a whopping 73 points at half time. Forward Kawhi Leonard had just 14 points, all of which came in the first half. Spurs welcome back Tony Parker to the mix, he’s been out since opening night against the Warriors because of a knee issue. I think his effectiveness is in question tonight. The Rockets looked good in their win over the the Wizards, especially on the defensive end in the final quarter. James Harden has gotten out to a great start as well, he had 15 assists and 32 points in the victory: "This offense gives me a lot more space, a lot more room for me to get to the basket and for me to find guys," Harden assessed after the victory. "You have to respect our shooters. The guys just knocked down some shots tonight and we found our rhythm in the fourth quarter." I’ll point out that the Rockets are already 3-0 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more, while San Antonio is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 following a loss by ten points or more. I think Houston carries its momentum over into this one and while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do expect the visitors to take this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-09-16 | Celtics v. Wizards +1.5 | 93-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washignton Wizards (7:05 EST). With a date against Cleveland in two nights, the 1-5 Wizards will be risking life and limb in trying to secure a victory against the 3-3 Celtics. The Wizards most recently fell 114-106 to the Rockets on Monday. But here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against, the C’s have regressed quickly and enter having lost two straight by allowing an average of 125.5 PPG. Boston seems out of sorts without big man Al Horford, who missed his third straight in a 123-107 setback to Denver on Sunday. Washington also plays with revenge today, it lost all four to Boston last year. And I’ll point out that the Celtics are just 8-15 ATS in their last 23 when playing with two days of rest, while the Wizards are interestingly 2-1 ATS in their last three after scoring 105 points or more. Play on the hungry Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
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11-07-16 | Magic v. Bulls -7.5 | Top | 80-112 | Win | 100 | 29 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Chicago Bulls (8:05 EST). Chicago opened with three straight victories and looked ready to challenge the Cavs for Eastern conference supremacy, but the wheels quickly fell off and the Bull have come back down to earth with three straight losses. Orlando opened with three straight losses, but comes into this one riding a three game win streak. Most recently the Bulls fell 111-94 to the Pacers, a team which they beat during their opening season win skein. Indiana came in off consecutive defeats and caught the Bulls in a bad spot. But now it’s time for Chicago to bounce back in this home game. Orlando comes to town off an 88-86 win over Washington on Saturday. Orlando’s turnaround has been decent, but I’ll caution in reading too much into it quite yet as the competition level has been minimal, with wins over the 76ers, Kings and Wizards. Dwayne Wade has so far been the focal point of the Bulls’ offense, so expect to see a lot more of everyone else, especially Jimmy Butler: "I'm just going to have to lead the charge when it comes to coming out with the right energy, making sure we're doing everything we're supposed to on both ends of the floor," Butler said. "I'm definitely capable of doing that, so I can't come out lackadaisical. I've got to make sure everybody is doing what they're supposed to do. I think that's on us. It's not even on the coaches." With much easier games at home against Minnesota and Utah this week, I think this sets up as a letdown spot for Orlando tonight. And with a tough road trip starting on Wednesday on back-to-back nights, Chicago knows that it can ill afford to waste this opportunity. All of the situational factors are in place for the Bulls this evening, but I’ll also point out that Orlando is in fact just 12-13 ATS in its last 25 as a road dog in the 6.5 to nine points range, while Chicago is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 after three or more consecutive SU losses. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-07-16 | Jazz v. 76ers +7 | 109-84 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Philadelphia 76ers (7:05 EST). Gordon Hayward returned to the Utah lineup yesterday and the Jazz managed to score an upset victory in New York. The Jazz have won three of their last four, but I think are primed for a classic letdown today. Philadelphia is winless, but if ever there was an opponent to get untracked against, this is it. And while I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright straight-up upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Hayward had 28 points in the 114-109 win yesterday, while Jazz guard George Hill added 23. So while everything is smelling like roses in Utah, the 76ers will clearly be in a foul mood today, their most recent setback was a 102-101 loss to Cleveland on Saturday. One player to keep your eys on today is Philadephia’s rookie center Joel Embiid, who made all four of his 3-point attempts while scoring 22 in the setback to the Cavs. It’s interesting to note that Utah is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 against the Atlantic division, while Philadelphia is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 against the Northwest. I think this one sets up perfectly for the home side and expect this game to be a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to beileve. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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11-06-16 | Bucks v. Mavs -3.5 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Dallas Mavericks (8:00 EST). Dallas is 0-5 to open the season and will be playing tonight without the services of Dirk Nowitzki, who is being sidelined with an Achilles injury. Despite those facts, I think the desperation level in which the home side plays with tonight will prove to be the difference once the final horn blares. And here’s the perfect opponent and situation to take advantage of, as Milwaukee comes to town content after hammering the Kings 117-91 at home just last night, making it three in a row for the Bucks. The Mavs most recently fell 105-95 at home to Portland. But if history is any precedence, then Dallas has to be loving its chances today, as it’s won three straight in this series at home and 11 of the last 13. I thnk it’s significant to note that Milwaukee is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 after three or more consecutive SU victories, while Dallas is still 7-5 ATS in its last 12 after three or more consecutive SU losses. A perfect storm of factors collide to make the Mavs the correct call in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-16 | Bulls v. Pacers -2.5 | Top | 94-111 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Indiana Pacers (7:00 EST). Indiana is just 2-3 on the year, but has won both games at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Pacers play with the immediate “revenge” factor after falling 118-101 at the United Center last Saturday. That was the second night of a back to back for Indiana. But now the tables have turned, as the Pacers look to exact a little revenge on a Bulls team which just gave up 117 points in a loss in New York last night (and that was on the heels of giving up 107 to Boston). After three straight wins, the Bulls have regressed and the veterans will surely be gassed in this back-to-back scenario. Dwayne Wade especially should be tired tonight after going 5 of 7 from 3-point range and finishing with 35 points, all for naught. I’ll point out that Chicago is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 as a road dog of three points or less, while Indiana is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 as a home fav of 3 points or less. It’s a great spot to pull the trigger on this LEGEND play, lay the points with the Pacers. Good luck…Larry |
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Larry Ness NBA Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-21-16 | Wizards v. Bulls -4 | 107-97 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
12-21-16 | Grizzlies v. Pistons -6.5 | 98-86 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 33 m | Show | |
12-17-16 | Blazers v. Warriors -13 | Top | 90-135 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
12-16-16 | Lakers +2 v. 76ers | 100-89 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show | |
12-16-16 | Hawks +7 v. Raptors | 125-121 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
12-15-16 | Knicks v. Warriors -14.5 | Top | 90-103 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
12-14-16 | Kings +9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 98-132 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
12-14-16 | Raptors v. 76ers +8.5 | 123-114 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
12-13-16 | Wolves +7.5 v. Bulls | Top | 99-94 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
12-12-16 | Blazers +9.5 v. Clippers | Top | 120-121 | Win | 100 | 30 h 11 m | Show |
12-12-16 | Nets +15 v. Rockets | 118-122 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show | |
12-12-16 | Bucks v. Raptors -8.5 | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 27 h 11 m | Show | |
12-11-16 | Knicks v. Lakers +2.5 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
12-10-16 | Nets v. Spurs -14 | Top | 101-130 | Win | 100 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
12-09-16 | Pacers v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
12-08-16 | Nuggets v. Wizards -5 | Top | 85-92 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
12-07-16 | Kings -3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-89 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
12-07-16 | Cavs -5 v. Knicks | 126-94 | Win | 100 | 29 h 15 m | Show | |
12-07-16 | Blazers +2 v. Bucks | 107-115 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 15 m | Show | |
12-06-16 | Knicks v. Heat -1 | Top | 114-103 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
12-05-16 | Cavs v. Raptors -2 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
12-04-16 | Magic v. Pistons -7 | Top | 98-92 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
12-03-16 | Lakers v. Grizzlies | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
12-02-16 | Wizards +9.5 v. Spurs | Top | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
12-02-16 | Lakers +10.5 v. Raptors | 80-113 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
12-02-16 | Kings +7 v. Celtics | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
12-01-16 | Clippers +5 v. Cavs | Top | 113-94 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
11-30-16 | Wizards +5.5 v. Thunder | Top | 115-126 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
11-30-16 | Grizzlies +11.5 v. Raptors | Top | 105-120 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
11-29-16 | Rockets -2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 101-120 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
11-28-16 | Thunder +1 v. Knicks | Top | 112-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
11-27-16 | Hawks -4 v. Lakers | Top | 94-109 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
11-23-16 | Raptors +3 v. Rockets | Top | 115-102 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
11-19-16 | Jazz +5 v. Rockets | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
11-17-16 | Blazers +4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
11-16-16 | Cavs v. Pacers +4.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
11-15-16 | Raptors +5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 117-121 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
11-14-16 | Heat +11 v. Spurs | Top | 90-94 | Win | 100 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
11-12-16 | Lakers v. Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 126-99 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
11-11-16 | Pacers v. 76ers +5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
11-10-16 | Lakers +4.5 v. Kings | Top | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 32 h 22 m | Show |
11-09-16 | Raptors +3.5 v. Thunder | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show | |
11-09-16 | Rockets +7.5 v. Spurs | Top | 101-99 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
11-09-16 | Celtics v. Wizards +1.5 | 93-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
11-07-16 | Magic v. Bulls -7.5 | Top | 80-112 | Win | 100 | 29 h 0 m | Show |
11-07-16 | Jazz v. 76ers +7 | 109-84 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
11-06-16 | Bucks v. Mavs -3.5 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
11-05-16 | Bulls v. Pacers -2.5 | Top | 94-111 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show |