Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-10-18 | Heat +4.5 v. Pacers | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Heat (7:00 EST). Miami comes in off a hard-fought 90-89 win at Toronto last night and I believe the team carries that momentum over here. Indiana has won two straight, most recently a 109-96 effort at home over Milwaukee. Note that these teams have already split a pair of games this year. The Heat are now 8-3 in their last 11 and have won five straight. Miami is surging, now in fifth in the East with an 11-8 road record and a 14-8 mark against the Eastern Conference overall. Miami averages 100.9 PPG and it concedes 102.2. Hassan Whiteside is once again putting together a solid campaign with 14 points and 11.5 boards per game. Guard Goran Dragic adds 16.7 points, 4.1 boards and 4.8 assists per game, while Dion Watiers chips in 14.3 points. The Pacers average 107.3 PPG and concede 106.6. Victor Oladipo leads the team with 24.5 points, 5.2 boards and 1.91 steals per game. Miami is now 11-8 ATS on the road this year and 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 90 points or less in its previous contest, while Indiana is just 4-7 ATS already this season following a win by ten points or more. I’m expecting another nail-biter for the Heat in this one and will therefore be recommending to grab the points. Play on Miami. Good luck…Larry |
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01-10-18 | Mavs +6.5 v. Hornets | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Dallas Mavericks (7:00 EST). Dallas smoked Orlando at home 114-99 last night and I believe the team will carry that momentum over here. Conversely, this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for Charlotte, which returns for its first home game after a very satisfying 3-1 Western road swing, including knocking off the Lakers 108-94 last Friday. Note that this is a big time revenge game for the Mavs after the Hornets took both meetings last season. Dallas averages 102 PPG and it concedes 104.4. Harrison Barnes leads the nightly charge with 18.7 points, plus 6.6 boards per game, while Dennis Smith Jr. adds 13.8 points and 4.5 assists. Charlotte averages 105 PPG and it concedes 106. Kemba Walker leads the team with 21.3 points and 5.8 assists per game, while big man Dwight Howard adds 15.7 points, plus 12.1 boards per contest. I’ll point out though Dallas is 10-9 ATS on the road already this year and 17-12 ATS when playing the role of underdog, while Charlotte is already 0-3 ATS this year when playing with three or more days rest and just 3-5 ATS after a victory by ten points or more. While I’m not going to call for the outright upset (I wouldn’t be shocked by it of course!), I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect this one to be a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on Dallas. Good luck…Larry |
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01-09-18 | Kings v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 86-99 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Lakers (10:35 EST). LA snapped a nine-game slide with a resounding 132-113 victory over Atlanta (Lonzo Ball’s second game back from injury, the dynamic point guard narrowly missing out on a triple-double) and suffice it to say, I expect the team to carry that momentum over here. Note as well that this is a revenge game for the Lakers after they fell 113-102 to the Kings in mid November. The Kings come in off a 107-100 loss in San Antonio just last night and all signs do indeed point to a predictable letdown here. So far Sacramento averages just 97.6 PPG, while conceding 106.2. De’Aaron Fox averages 9.9 points, 2.8 boards and 3.8 assists per game. LA averages 107 PPG and concedes 111.8. Brook Lopez leads the nightly charge with 12.5 points, plus 4.2 boards per game. Ball averages 10.2 points, 6.9 boards and seven assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Sacramento is 0-4 ATS in its last four against teams with a losing straight up record and just 1-5 ATS in its last six against the Western Conference, while LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 130 points or more in its previous contest. Sacramento is dealing with injury issues and is playing the second game of a back to back. After an extended stretch of futility, the last thing the Lakers can do is to “look past” this golden opportunity. Expect a similar game-plan for LA as what it featured in its win over the Hawks as its gets out and pushes the pace with its trademark run and gun style. Lay the points, play on the Lakers. Good luck…Larry |
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01-07-18 | Thunder v. Suns +8.5 | Top | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Phoenix Suns (8:05 EST). The Thunder won their second straight with a 127-117 victory over the Clippers on Thursday. The Suns enter having lost two straight, most recently a 103-89 setback in San Antonio on Friday. Note that these teams have yet to play this year, but they’d split four match ups last season with the home side winning each time. The Thunder average 104.9 PPG and concede 100.8. Russell Westbrook leads the nightly charge with 24.8 points, 9.6 boards, ten assists and 2.03 steals per game, while Paul George adds 20.6 points, 5.5 boards and 2.44 steals per game. The Suns average 105.5 PPG and concede 112.4. Devin Booker leads the way with 24.8 points, plus 4.3 assists per game. I’ll point out though that OKC is just 1-2 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog and only 6-9 ATS against teams with losing records, while Phoenix is already 8-6 ATS this year following a loss by ten points or more. With a home game against Portland on Tuesday, it’s not too hard to imagine the surging visitors in some small way looking past their lowly opponent tonight. Play on the Suns. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-18 | Nuggets v. Kings +4 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PEFECT STORM is on the Sacramento Kings (10:05 EST). The 20-17 Denver Nuggets are in Sacramento to take on the 12-25 Kings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. No need to overthink this one in my opinion. Denver comes to town off a very satisfying 99-91 win at home over Utah just last night and faces a now desperate Sacramento side which comes in having lost three straight and which also plays with revenge after falling to Denver 114-98 in late November. The Kings have had three whole nights off to rest and prepare for this one as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Sacramento is 8-2 ATS in its last ten when playing with three or more days rest and already 8-7 ATS this season against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest, while Denver is only 8-10 ATS this year against teams with losing records and just 1-2 ATS against good offensive teams which score 98 plus points per contest. It’s a perfect storm of situational factors working in favor of the lowly home side today and while I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Kings. Good luck…Larry |
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01-05-18 | Raptors v. Bucks +1.5 | 129-110 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Milwaukee Bucks (8:05 EST). Toronto enters off a 124-115 road win in Chicago on Wednesday, while Milwaukee won for the third time in four games in a 122-101 victory over Indiana on Wednesday. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as Toronto has won eight of the last nine, including a 131-127 OT victory at home in the most recent matchup just this past Monday. Toronto averages 111.6 PPG and concedes 103.8. DeMar DeRozan averages 25.2 points, plus five assists per game, while Kyle Lowry adds 16.2 points, plus 6.1 boards per contest. Milwaukee averages 105.9 PPG and concedes 105.8. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way with 29.1 points, 10.4 boards, 4.7 assists, 1.32 blocks and 1.65 steals per game. Eric Bledsoe is so far averaging 17.9 points, plus 4.3 assists per game. I’ll point out though that Toronto is still just 6-8 ATS this year against teams with winning records, while Milwaukee is 9-6 ATS against clubs with winning records this season and 6-4 ATS against good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per contest. The Raptors have been playing exceptionally, but I think they run out of gas here vs. this revenge minded Bucks team. Grab the points, play on Milwaukee. Good luck…Larry |
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01-05-18 | Wolves +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 84-91 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (7:05 EST). Minnesota comes into this one focused after its 98-97 road loss in Brooklyn on Wednesday, while Boston looks primed for a letdown here against this non-conference opponent and after winning four straight, including a decisive 102-88 victory at home over Cleveland in its most recent action. The Wolves enter averaging 108.4 PPG, while conceding 105.7. Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.1 points, plus 11.5 boards per game, while Andrew Wiggins adds 17.7 points, plus four boards per contest. The Celtics average 103.4 PPG and concede just 98.2. Kyrie Irving leads the team with 24.4 points, 4.9 assists and 1.23 steals per game. Note though that Minnesota is 2-1 ATS in its last three off an upset loss as a favorite, while Boston is just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 after playing three consecutive home games. With a “winnable” game at Brooklyn tomorrow night, this also sets up as a bit of a “look ahead” spot for the home side as well. While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to grab the points as I envision this one coming right down to the wire. Play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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01-02-18 | Spurs v. Knicks +4 | Top | 100-91 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Knicks (7:35 EST). The Spurs’ three-game win streak was snapped in a listless 93-79 setback in Detroit on Saturday night and suffice it to say, I believe this one sets up as a letdown spot as well. The Knicks will look to take advantage and build off a solid 105-103 road win over New Orleans, a victory which broke a four-game slide. Note that this is a revenge game for New York as well after it fell 119-107 in the first matchup this year back on December 28th. San Antonio averages 101.2 PPG and concedes just 98.1 (ranked first.) Kawhi Leonard returned in December, but he’s so far struggled, averaging 13.5 points and 3.5 boards per game. LaMarcus Aldridge has carried the Spurs on his back for the most part this year with 22 points per night average. New York averages 103.6 PPG and concedes 103.7. Kristaps Porzingis averages 24.5 points, 6.7 boards and 2.23 blocks a night, while Enes Kanter chips in 13.5 points, plus 10.3 boards per game. I’ll point out that San Antonio is just 3-5 ATS this year though when playing with two days rest and only 2-3 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite, while New York is 4-3 ATS when playing on two days rest and 5-4 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. Outright, straight-up upset? Obviously with a spread like this, that’s not out of the question. However, in a contest which I envision being decided late, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in the end. Good luck…Larry |
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01-01-18 | Magic +4 v. Nets | Top | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Orlando Magic (7:30 EST). The Magic will be hungry here, they come in off a 117-111 loss at home to the Heat on Saturday, their tenth loss in their last 11 games. But here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against as the Nets come in off a deflating 108-105 loss in Boston just last night. Orlando averages 104.8 PPG and concedes 110.2. Nikola Vucevic leads the team with 17.4 points, plus 9.3 boards per game. Vucevic though is out with inury. Brooklyn averages 107.5 PPG and concedes 110 per contest. D’Angelo Russell leads the team with 20.9 points and 5.7 assists per game. But Russell remains out with injury as well. Yesterday was the finale of a five-game trip for the Nets and there’s no question that this now sets up as a classic “letdown/trap” for the home side. Additionally note that Orlando is 2-1 ATS in its last three after allowing 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Brooklyn just 6-8 ATS this season against clubs with losing records. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Magic. Good luck…Larry |
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12-31-17 | Lakers +14.5 v. Rockets | Top | 142-148 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Lakers (7:00 EST). LA won’t be lacking for motivation tonight as it’s lost five straight, including getting thrashed in the last three. Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against, as Houston comes in floundering, having lost five straight. The Lakers have lost eight of their last nine, but their one victory was a 122-116 win over Houston on the road. LA most recently dropped a 121-106 decision to the Clippers. One bright spot was the fact that the Lakers posted 70 points in the paint. Will the Rockets get caught “looking past” the lowly Lakers tonight? I think it’s very possible, with a couple days off before another road game, this time in Orlando. Houston most recently comes in off a 121-103 loss to Washington, shooting just 42.7 percent, including only 14 of 48 from range. James Harden was a bright spot in that one with 20 points, but no rebounds to go along with four assists and five turnovers. Note that big man Clint Cappella has missed the last two games and he’s questionable for this one as well. Additionally I’ll point out that the Lakers are 10-5 ATS this year against teams with winning records and 7-5 ATS after allowing 115 points or more, while Houston is 1-2 ATS this season after a loss by ten points or more and 0-4 ATS as a home fav in the 12.5 to 18 points range. Clearly Houston is the better team. But the desperate Lakers are in a good position to keep this one competitive and that’s exactly what I expect to see happen. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-17 | 76ers +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* UNDERDOG SUPER-SHOCKER is on the Philadelphia 76ers (9:05 EST). Philadelphia will be desperate here as it comes in having lost six of its last seven. Here’s a great opponent to get untracked against, as I believe Denver has another letdown after its three game win streak was snapped in a tough OT loss to Minnesota in its latest action. Joel Embiid had 29 points in his team’s 114-110 loss at Portland. The 76ers had an 18 point lead mid-way through the third quarter, but they then completely fell apart in the fourth. Embiid won’t be playing in tonight, but I still believe this one favors the hungry visiting side. The Nuggets looked decent during their three-game win streak, but they came unravelled in their latest action. Denver has four different players that score in double digits, but I’ll point out that the Nuggets are just 3-5 ATS this year after scoring 115 points or more and only 5-8 ATS in non-conference games. The 76ers on the other hand are 10-8 ATS in non-conference contests this season and 3-1 ATS after playing three consecutive road games. With a four day layoff after tonight’s game, I think the home side gets caught “looking ahead.” Philadelphia though can take nothing for granted, with another game in Phoenix tomorrow night. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-29-17 | Clippers v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 121-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Lakers (10:35 EST). The 14-19 Clippers get ready to battle the 11-22 Lakers on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Lakers. The Clippers enter off a satisfying 122-95 win over the Kings on Friday, while the Lakers come in off a 109-99 setback at hime to Memphis. Note that this is a double revenge scenario for the Lakers as well, with the Clippers taking both earlier meetings, 108-92 and 115-112. The Clippers have been playing better, learning how to win without Blake Griffin in the line-up, but he could very well return tonight. I think that’s going to throw a monkey-wrench into the overall timing/chemistry that the Clippers have found of late without Griffin in the line-up. DeAndre Jordan has picked up the slack in Griffin’s absence, so far leading the NBA with an average of 15.2 RPG. So far the Clippers average 105 PPG and concede 106. The Lakers average 106.3 PPG and concede 109.8. Brandon Ingram led the way in the team’s latest setback with 23 points. I’ll point out though that the Clippers are just 1-3 ATS already this year after scoring 115 points or more in their previous contest, while the Lakers are 12-9 ATS this season trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. I think the Lakers are the much “hungrier” overall team here and I look for them to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points, play on the Lakers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-28-17 | Wolves +2.5 v. Bucks | Top | 96-102 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:00 EST). The Wolves took care of business in a tight 128-125 win at home over the Nuggets last night and I look for the team to carry that momentum over here. The Bucks have lost two straight, most recently a 115-106 setback at home to the surging Chicago Bulls. Now that Minnesota sits in first in the Northwest, the Wolves will be looking to protect their lead. So far Minnesota averages 108.4 PPG and concedes 106.3. Big man Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.5 points and 11.6 boards per game, while Andrew Wiggins adds 17.5 points, plus four boards per contest. Milwaukee averages 105.2 PPG and concedes 105.8. Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 29.5 points, 10.4 boards, 4.6 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.8 steals per game. Malcolm Bledsoe has chipped in 13.1 points per contest. I’ll point out though that Minnesota is 10-6 ATS on the road this year, while Milwaukee is just 6-8 ATS at home (also only 7-9 ATS as a favorite, while the Wolves are 5-3 ATS this season as the underdog.) The Wolves have been playing/travelling a lot, but I think this young core comes in focused on the task at hand and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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12-27-17 | Wizards v. Hawks +5.5 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:35 EST). Washington looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after winning its second straight, a 111-103 road win in Boston on Christmas Day. Atlanta on the other hand snapped a two game losing streak with a 112-107 win at home over the Mavericks. To say this is a “revenge” game for the Hawks would be an understatement, as Washington has won four straight in the series, including a 113-94 victory in the first meeting this year back in mid November. Washington averages 105.8 PPG and concedes 103.6. Guard John Wall averages 18.6 points and 8.8 assists per game. The Hawks average 103.8 PPG and concede 108.7. Dennis Schroder leads the nightly charge with 19.8 points, plus 6.7 assists per game. I’ll point out though that Washington has really struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 2-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and only 7-11 ATS against teams with losing records, while Atlanta is already 2-0 ATS this year after playing with three or more days rest and 6-4 ATS following a non-conference game. I think the Wiz leave the back door open just enough for the hungry Hawks to sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-26-17 | Raptors v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Dallas Mavericks (7:05 EST). The Raptors look primed for a letdown here in my opinion after winning six straight, most recently sweeping a home and home set against the 76ers. The Mavs enter having lost two straight, most recently a 112-107 setback on the road in Atlanta on Saturday. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement as well, as Toronto has won four straight and seven of nine, including both match ups last year. Toronto averages 111.3 PPG and concedes just 102.4. DeMar DeRozan leads the nightly charge with 24.9 points and 4.9 assists per game, while big man Jonas Valanciunas averages 10.6 points and 7.7 boards per outing. Dallas averages 100 PPG and concedes 103.2. Harrison Barnes leads the team with 18.7 points and 6.8 boards per game, while Dennis Smith Jr. adds 13.8 points and 4.2 assists per game. I’ll point out though that Toronto is still just 20-21 ATS in its last 41 after allowing 90 points of less in its previous outing, while Dallas is 12-8 ATS this year against teams with winning records. With a game tomorrow night in OKC, I think the visitors get caught looking ahead and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Mavericks. Good luck…Larry |
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12-25-17 | Wolves -3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 121-104 | Win | 100 | 52 h 50 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (10:35 EST). The Wolves come in with considerable momentum, having won three straight, most recently a 115-106 road victory over Phoenix on Saturday. The Lakers enter off back-to-back losses, most recently a listless 95-92 setback at home to Portland on Saturday. Minnesota averages 108 PPG and concedes 106.3. Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.5 points, plus 11.7 boards per game. Jimmy Butler had 32 points in the Wolves most recent victory. LA averages 106.6 PPG and concedes 109.4. Big man Brook Lopez averages 12.8 points plus 4.3 boards per game. I’ll point out though that Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six on the road, while LA is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after allowing 95 points or less in its previous contest. These two teams are moving in opposite directions right now. The Wolves have won their first two games of this three game trip and now have a two game lead in the Northwest. I like Minnesota to finish up its road trip strong and to take advantage of the scuffling Lakers. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-25-17 | Rockets v. Thunder +4 | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 49 h 20 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:05 EST). The 25-6 Houston Rockets are at Oklahoma City to take on the 18-15 Thunder and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Rockets come into this one on the heels of a two game slide, giving up 122 and 128 points to the Lakers and Clippers respectively. One has to wonder here how much gas Houston star James Harden left in him after back-to-back 51 point performances? Houston’s defense looked terrible in the loss to the Clippers and that doesn’t bode well in facing this rejuvenated Thunder team in my opinion. OKC has won four straight and ten of its last 13 and quietly comes in as arguably the hottest team in the NBA right now. Do it all All Star Russell Westbrook had 27 points, ten boards and ten assists in the Thunder’s most recent win over the Jazz. Paul George also had a huge game in that one, finishing with 27 points, ten boards and ten assists. But perhaps most impressively was the Thunder’s defense, which limited Utah to just 89 points (note that it was the third time in OKC’s last four games that it’s held an opponent to under 100 points.) These two teams are suddenly moving in opposite directions and I expect those trends to continue on Christmas night. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-25-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -5 | 111-103 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 50 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Celtics (5:35 EST). The 18-15 Washington Wizards are in Boston on Christmas Day to take on the 27-9 Celtics and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Washington has won four of its last six, but looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after it’s lop-sided 130-103 win over Orlando on Saturday. Mike Scott led the way in that one with 17 points off the bench, while Bradley Beal added 17 points. The C’s have won three of their last five, most recently smashing Chicago 117-92 on Saturday. Team leader Kyrie Irving led the way with 25 points and seven assists in that one. I’ll point out though that the home teams is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 in this series, while Washington is 0-9 ATS in its last nine visits overall to Boston. Boston has been near impossible to beat at home, winning 14 of 18 so far and on Christmas Day on the national stage in prime time, I look for the Celtics to play a complete four quarters. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-17 | 76ers +10.5 v. Raptors | Top | 86-102 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* EAST-CONF GAME OF MONTH is on the Philadelphia 76ers (5:05 EST). Toronto is a pretty good team. But I don’t think it’s a “great team.” It’s hard to beat a team three times in the same season. The 76ers play with double revenge here, having dropped both earlier meetings against the Raptors this year, including a 114-109 setback in Philadelphia on Thursday. In that game the 76ers had a 20 points lead early in the third quarter. DeMar DeRozan though had different ideas for the visiting Raptors, as he helped his team claw back for the victory with a career high 45 points. Philadelphia averages 108.6 PPG and concedes 109.4. Rookie phenom Ben Simmons averages 17.3 points, nine boards, 7.8 assists and two steals per game. Toronto averages 111.6 PPG and concedes 103. DeRozan leads the nightly charge with 24.7 points, plus 5.7 assists per game. As mentioned off the top though, it’s very difficult even for great teams to beat a poor team three times in one season. Clearly the 76ers can’t “look past” Toronto to their Christmas Day matchup with the Knicks as they come in having lost four straight and eight of their last ten. Could the Raptors get caught looking ahead to their Christmas break? Very possible of course. Toronto has won nine of ten, including five straight and two straight on the road. With a game in Dallas on Boxing Day, I do believe that the Raptors will finally have a letdown here against this extremely desperate 76ers side. Whether big man Joel Embiid plays or not for Philadelphia, I like the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Good luck…Larry |
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12-21-17 | Celtics v. Knicks +4 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the New York Knicks (8:05 EST). Boston comes in off a loss at home just last night to the Heat. The Celtics have been decent in the second game of back-to-back scenarios this year, but I think they’ll stumble again tonight against this revenge-minded Knicks side. New York will be eager to get untracked after its four game win streak was snapped in a 109-91 road loss to Charlotte on Monday. And as mentioned off the top, the Knicks do indeed play with “the revenge factor” tonight after falling 110-89 in the first matchup this season in late October. And with a much more “winnable” game at home against the Bulls on Saturday, before their Christmas Day matchup at home against the Wizards, it’s definitely not too hard to picture the visitors also getting caught “looking ahead.” New York on the other hand has a tough game at Detroit tomorrow night, before its Christmas Day game at home against Philadelphia. There’s no question that tonight’s contest takes on added importance. I base my picks on many things, but this one sets up great from situational and scheduling stand points. New York is better at home (14-5 SU/ATS) than on the road and star Kristaps Porzingis is back in the line-up. Celtics coach Brad Stevens could very well give starters extra rest in the tail end of the back-to-back as well. When you add it all up, all signs point to a comfortable ATS cover for the home side. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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12-20-17 | Wolves +2.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (9:05 EST). The 18-13 Minnesota Timberwolves are in Denver to take on the 16-14 Nuggets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Minnesota enters off a momentum building 108-107 win over the Blazers on Monday, while the Nuggets come in off a deflating 95-94 loss to OKC in their latest action. The Wolves are 6-4 in their last ten. Minnesota averages 107.6 PPG and concedes 106.4. Jimmy Butler exploded for 37 points and six boards in his teams latest victory. The Nuggets average 107.4 PPG and concede 107.1. Garry Harris had 17 points in the road loss to the Thunder. I’ll point out that Minnesota is 4-1 ATS vs. division opponents already this year and 6-2 ATS when playing the role of underdog, while Denver is interestingly just 6-8 ATS this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106-plus points per contest and just 2-3 ATS against division opponents. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Wolves. Good luck…Larry |
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12-18-17 | Jazz +12 v. Rockets | Top | 99-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Utah Jazz (8:05 EST). Houston has won 13 straight and has lost only four times this year. However, the Rockets are just 15-12-1 ATS. Utah has struggled overall this season, due mostly from injuries to key players, but I think it’ll keep this one competitive enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door. The Jazz are injured, but they won’t be lacking for motivation tonight after dropping five of their last six, most recently a spirited 109-100 setback in Cleveland. Donovan Mitchell was a standout in that one with 26 points. Houston has been impressive, but I think it comes out flat-footed here finally as it hits a “vanilla” part of its schedule, with light weights Lakers and Clippers at home up next. I’ll point out as well that Utah is still 4-1 ATS in its last five against the West, while perhaps surprisingly, the Rockets are only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five overall. The Jazz have been playing without big man Rudy Gobert for a while now, but now the Rockets must also make an adjustment with center Clint Cappela out with injury. For all the reason listed above, play on the Jazz. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-17 | Cavs v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Washington Wizards (6:05 EST). No need to overthink this one in my opinion. After a shaky start to the 2017/18 campaign, Cleveland comes in having won 17 of its last 18 after last night’s 109-100 victory over Utah. After Washington the Cavs have a tough one at Milwaukee on Tuesday, followed by a cream puff at home against the Bulls, which precedes their big Christmas Day matchup at Golden State. Off last night’s satisfying victory, I think Cleveland comes out flat-footed here. Washington has won two straight and it’s going to be looking to keep the momentum rolling tonight. Note that the Wizards also play with revenge in this matchup after falling 130-122 to the Cavs back on November 3rd. The Wizards look a lot better with star point guard John Wall back in the line-up and I believe his presence continues to pay dividends for Washington this evening. Play on the Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
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12-14-17 | Kings v. Wolves -10.5 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
This is 10* Las Vegas Insider on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST). I base my selections on many different things. For this particular pick I’m basing it on common sense. Minnesota had won two in a row before an OT loss to Philadelphia. But with three straight home games against suspect competition (with the Suns and Blazers up next), there’s no question that this sets up as an important early game for the playoff hopeful Wolves, who will look to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Sacramento comes in off a highly satisfying 99-92 win over Phoenix and I think it gets caught “looking ahead” to the remainder of its incredibly tough road trip, with upcoming stops at Toronto, Philadelphia and Brooklyn, before a game at home against the Spurs. I’ll point out as well that the Kings are interestingly just 1-5 ATS in their last six after a victory in which they’ve scored 100 points or less, while Minnesota is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Wolves. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-17 | 76ers +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Philadelphia 76ers (8:05 EST). Philadelphia could be without big man Joel Embiid in this one, but whether he plays or not, I think the desperate 76ers will at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. And that’s because the visitors come to town having lost four straight, most recently a hard-fought 131-124 road loss to New Orleans on Sunday. The Wolves enter off a 97-92 home win over the Mavericks. These teams split a pair of games last year, with each winning on the others home floor. Philadelphia comes in averaging 108.2 PPG, while conceding 108.8. Ben Simmons averages 18 points, 9.1 boards, 7.7 assists and 2.08 steals per contest. Minnesota holds a 1.5 game lead in the Northwest Division. The Wolves average 107.1 PPG and concede 106.3. Andrew Wiggins averages 18.2 points, plus four boards per game. I’ll point out though that Philadelphia is 9-5 ATS in non-conference games this year and 3-2 ATS after allowing 115 points or more, while Minnesota is just 1-7 ATS in non-conference contests this season and just 4-8 ATS in front of the home town crowd. The Wolves have hit a very “vanilla” part of their schedule, with upcoming games against bottom feeders Sacramento and Phoenix at home next. It’s not too hard to imagine Minnesota get caught looking past their lowly Eastern conference opponent tonight. As mentioned off the top, whether Embiid plays or not, I think the intensity in which the 76ers play with tonight turns out to the be the difference. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-17 | Raptors v. Clippers +6 | Top | 91-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the LA Clipeprs (10:35 EST). The 17-7 Toronto Raptors are in LA to take on the 9-15 Clippers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Clippers broke a four-game slide with a gutty 113-112 home win over Washington last time out and I expect them to carry that momentum over here. And with an extended Eastern Conference road swing starting on Wednesday, tonight’s game takes on added importance for LA. The Raptors have won six straight and come in off a highly satisfying 102-87 victory over the Kings just last night. With a game at Phoenix on Wednesday, there’s no doubt that tonight’s contest sets up as a classic “letdown/lookahead” for the visitors in my opinion. LA is without leader Blake Griffin, but it still has five players that are averaging in double figures. Offense isn’t an issue for the Clippers, it’s their defense. Which normally would spell disaster facing the extremely deep and talented Raptors, but fortunately for LA it catches them on the tail-end of the back-to-back scenario. A great situational play in my opinion and a mistake made by the oddsmakers. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Clippers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-17 | Magic v. Hawks -2 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:35 EST). Orlando took the first game of this home and home series 110-106 in OT on Wednesday. Suffice it to say, I think it’s “payback” time! Atlanta averages 102.8 PPG and concedes 108.6. Dennis Schroeder leads the way with 20.5 points, plus 6.5 assists per game, while Marco Belinelli chips in 12 points and 2.5 boards. Note that the Hawks are tied for fourth in the league in three point shooting percentage (37.9.) The Hawks haven’t played since the loss to the Magic, but Orlando was in action just last night, falling 103-89 at home to the Nuggets. It’s interesting to note that Orlando is just 4-7 ATS this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106-plus points per contest, while ATL is 5-3 ATS this season against good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per game. I think Orlando comes in with “heavy legs” and I look for the revenge minded Hawks to take full advantage. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-17 | Clippers v. Wolves -12.5 | Top | 106-112 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (7:00 EST). The Clippers lost the services of Blake Griffin to a knee injury for a few weeks and last night they came out and laid and egg in a 108-82 setback in Dallas. The Wolves have been alrternating wins and losses of late and most recently fell 111-107 to a desperate OKC team on the road on Friday. LA averages 105.9 PPG, while conceding 107.2. Griffin had been leading the nightly charge with 23.6 points, plus 7.9 boards per game, but DeAndre Jordan is the main man now with Griffin sidelined. Jordan averages 10.8 points, plus 13,8 boards per game. Minnesota averages 107.7 PPG and concedes 107.4. Karl Anthony Towns averages 20.5 points and 11.6 boards per game, while Andrew Wiggins adds 19.2 points and 4.1 boards. I’ll point out that LA is 0-5 ATS in its last five in the second game of the back to back, while Minnesota is a solid 5-0-1 ATS in its last six against the Western Conference. The Clippers are “gassed” and under-manned. The Wolves are rested and hungry. This will be a slaughter from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-17 | Kings v. Bucks -11.5 | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Bucks (8:35 EST). No need to overthink this one in my opinion. Sacramento comes in off an extremely rare 107-106 win in Chicago just last night and I fully expect a predictable letdown here. Milwaukee enters off a second straight win after beating Portland 103-91 on the road Thursday. And if recent history is any precedence, then the Bucks have to be loving their chances for another big performance tonight, because when these teams played in Sacramento just last week, it was Milwaukee which secured the relatively simple 112-87 victory. Despite last night’s win, note that the Kings still average just 94.7 PPG, while ranked last in the league in three point shooting at just 38.1 percent from range. The Bucks average 102.9 PPG and concede 103.9. Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 29.2 points, 10.1 boards, 4.5 assists and 1.74 steals. The Bucks are a deep team, which gets balanced scoring. I’ll point out as well that Sacramento is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five in the second game of a back-to-back scenario, while Milwaukee is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six against a team with a win percentage below .400. Milwaukee returns home off a successful trip and just hammered the Kings by 25 last week. All signs point to another blowout, so lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-17 | Wolves v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 107-111 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:05 EST). Minnesota comes to town off a very satisfying 120-102 road win over New Orleans on Wednesday, while Oklahoma City dropped its third straight in a listless 121-108 road loss to Orlando on Friday. Note that the Wolves are already 2-0 in the season series with OKC this year, meaning that the Thunder are definitely out for some revenge tonight. Minnesota averages 107.8 PPG and concedes 107.2. Andrew Wiggins averages 19 points and 4.1 boards per game, while Karl-Anthony Towns adds 20.4 points and 11.7 boards. OKC averages just 102.3 PPG, but it concedes just 99.3. Russell Westbrok averages 22.4 points, 9.2 boards, 9.5 assists and 2.2 steals per game, while Paul George adds 20.5 points, 5.9 boards and 2.75 steals per game. I’ll point out that Minnesota is just 1-3 ATS this year already after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Oklahoma City is 5-3 ATS at home this season and 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Thunder. Good luck…Larry |
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11-29-17 | Grizzlies +7 v. Spurs | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:35 EST). We don’t have to question the Grizzlies effort today as the team comes to town off eight straight losses. Memphis fired head coach David Fizdale because of it and suffice it to say, I expect the Grizzlies to come in extrenely focused here. Most recently Memphis fell 98-88 to Brooklyn on Sunday. Marc Gasol had 18 points, before getting benched for the entire fourth quarter by Fizdale, an unpopular move which triggered his release in the end. San Antonio would love nothing more than to kick this Grizzlies team while its down. The Spurs come in off a 115-108 win over Dallas, led by big man LaMarcus Aldridge with 33 points and ten boards. Tony Parker returned in that one as well for San Antonio. The Spurs are also expected to welcome back leader Kawhi Leonard this week. Everything is going right in San Antonio these days, while Memphis has more questions than answers. But “motivation” can be a difficult factor for oddsmakers to properly quantify into a line and that’s the case here in my opinion. This is the opening game of a home and home set between the clubs. I think the desperate Grizzlies will at the very least keep this one respectable until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-28-17 | Bucks -7 v. Kings | Top | 112-87 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Milwaukee Bucks (10:05 EST). I base my selections on many different things. Common sense is a good thing to use in handicapping and that’s the approach I’m taking with this selection. Both Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry sat out in the Warriors 110-106 home loss to Sacramento. The Kings clearly have to be feeling great after that victory over the defending champs and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a massive letdown here in the second game of the back-to-back. Conversely, after a four-game win streak, the Bucks come to town having dropped three of their last four, including a humbling 121-108 setback at Utah in their latest action. I’ll point out as well that the Bucks are 2-1 ATS already this year off an upset loss as a favorite, while Sacramento is just 1-6 ATS in non-conference games. For all the reasons listed above, play on Milwaukee. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-17 | Lakers +6 v. Clippers | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on the LA Lakers (10:30 EST). The Lakers come in off a loss to the Kings, while the Clippers come in off a win against Sacramento. The Lakers lost 113-102 to the Kings last time out. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope had 20 points, while Kyle Kuzma added 17 points. Rookie Lonzo Ball had a big game with 11 points, 11 assists and seven boards. The Clippers beat the kings 97-95, but it wasn’t pretty. Blake Griffin led the way with 33 points and hit the game winning 3-pointer with 3.2 seconds left. This one sets up great for the Lakers from a trend based stand point though, as note that they’re 4-2 ATS in their last six off an upset loss as a favorite, while the Clippers have struggled in this position by going just 1-2 ATS this season after playing three consecutive road games. Off back-to-back road victories to end their trip, I think the Clippers have a predictable letdown here. Whle I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Lakers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-17 | Heat v. Bulls +6.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Bulls (3:35 EST). Miami beat Boston and then went on the raod and beat the Wolves 109-97 on Friday night. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the Heat this evening though. The Bulls will be desperate here, they’ve dropped four straight and nine of their last ten and will be out to atone for a lacklustre 143-94 beatdown in Golden State on the road Friday. Note that this is a revenge game as well after Miami took the first one of the season series, 97-91 back on November 1st. Miami averages 100.9 PPG and concedes 102.5. Hassan Whiteside averags 15.5 points and 12.9 boards per game. Goran Dragic averages 18.9 points, 4.3 boards and 4.7 assists. Chicago averages just 94.4 PPG, while allowing 107.3. Lauri Markkanen averages 14.6 points and 8.2 boards per game, while big man Robin Lopez averages 13.1 points and 5.5 boards per contest. I’ll point out though that Miami is a poor 1-5 ATS as a favorite this season and just 1-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while Chicago is already 4-2 ATS this year following a loss by ten points or more. I won’t try to convince you that the Bulls are a good team which has just gotten some tough breaks to open the season, as that’s not the case. Chicago has problems across the board, with injuries being one of the main reasons the team has struggled to this point. However, I feel this is a bad spot for the Heat, with a game at Cleveland on Tuesday, followed by at New York on Thursday. All signs point to a letdown/look-ahead for Miami. Grab the points, play on Chicago. Godo luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | Knicks v. Rockets -13 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 28 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Rockets (8:05 EST). New York comes in off a deflating loss in Atlanta just last night and I expect the team to have a predictable letdown here in the second game of the back-to-back as well. The Rockets are off their third straight win and nine of their last ten in a 125-95 victory at Denver on Wednesday. If recent history is any precedence, then Houston has to be loving its chances tonight as well, because when these teams met back on November 1st, it was the Rockets that socred the relatively simple 119-97 road victory. The Knicks have been great at home this year, going 5-2, but terrible on the road, now just 1-5 away from friendly confines after last night’s setback. The Rockets average 113.3 PPG and allow just 103.5, which ranks the team tenth. Houston has always been able to score, but now it looks as if its ready to seroiusly challenget Golden State because of its improved performance on that end of the floor. I’ll point out as well that the Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last five in the second game of a back to back scenario, while Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning SU record. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rockets. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | Knicks v. Hawks +2 | Top | 104-116 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:30 EST). I think the Knicks have a letdown here after winning two straight, most recently a 108-100 victory at home over Toronto. Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for ATL, as it’s lost three straight and seven of eight after falling 116-103 at home to the Clippers on Wednesday. New York used a 41-10 third quarter to hammer the Raptors last time out. The Knicks average 104.9 PPG and concede 103.4. Big man Kristaps Porzingis averages 27.3 points, 7.4 boards and 2.31 blocks per night. Atlanta averages 102.8 PPG and concedes 108.2. Dennis Schroder keeps his team competitive by averaging 19.7 points, plus 7.1 boards per game. I’ll point out though that New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 108 points or more in its previous contest, while Atlanta is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses. With a game tomorrow night at Houston, I think the Knicks get caught looking ahead. Grab the points, play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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11-22-17 | Clippers v. Hawks +3 | Top | 116-103 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:35 EST). The Clippers are in a free-fall right now, most recently dropping their ninth straight in a 107-85 setback to the Knicks on Monday. The Hawks can empathize, as they lost their second straight and sixth of their last seven in a 96-85 setback on the road in San Antonio on Monday. These teams played twice last year and it was the Clippers that won both, meaning that this does also set up as a double revenge scenario for Atlanta tonight. LA averages 104.9 PPG and concedes 106.6. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 22.7 points, 7.8 boards and 4.7 assists per game. In the loss to New York the Clippers shot just 37.5 percent from the floor, including just 10 of 32 from range. Atlanta averages 102.8 PPG and concedes 107.8. Dennis Schroder keeps his team respectable most nights by averaging 19.7 points, plus 7.1 assists per game. I’ll point out though that LA is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven againt a team with a losing straight up record, while ATL is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games against a team with a losing road record. I think the Hawks are the hungrier team here. They’ve been kicked around long enough and finally have an opponent to take advantage of. After a hot start, the Clippers are in complete dissaray. Grab the points, play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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11-20-17 | Hawks +9.5 v. Spurs | 85-96 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Atlanta Hawks (8:35 EST). The 3-13 Atlanta Hawks are in San Antonio to take on the 10-6 Spurs and while I’m not going to call for the outright upset, I do believe that the hungry visiting side can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Hawks most recently fell 110-99 to the Celtics, looking great in the first half and then falling apart in the second. San Antonio is finding ways to win, but I think it comes in flat-footed and disinterested against its lowly Eastern Conference opponent tonight. The Hawks won’t be rolling over and with Dennis Schroeder in your line-up, you always have a “punchers chance.” Schroeder had 23 points, nine assists, two boards and two steals in the setback to the Cetlics. The Spurs came from behind to knock off the Thunder 104-101 on Friday night, led by 26 points and nine boards from big man LaMarcus Aldridge. Does the fact that the Hawks are 14-9 ATS in their last 23 against the Southwest division mean anything here? Well, it certainly doesn’t hurt. Also note that the Spurs are already 0-3 ATS this season when playing on two days rest. With a game at Western conference foe Minnesota on Wednesday, I look for the Spurs to get caught looking ahead and I expect the desperate visiting side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample spread that it’s been afforded. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Nuggets v. Lakers +5 | Top | 109-127 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers (9:35 EST). I think Denver has a letdown here after its big 146-114 home win over New Orleans on Friday. It was the team’s fourth win in its last five games. Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the young Lakers who lost for the fifth time in six games, falling at home to Phoenix 122-113 on Friday. This is a revenge game for LA as well, as Denver has won four of the last five in the series, including taking two of three last year. Denver averages 108.5 PPG and concedes 105.4. Paul Millsap leads the way with 16 points and 6.3 boards per game, while Will Barton adds 14.1 points. Big man Nikola Jokic contributes 16.2 points, 11.6 boards and 4.7 assists per game. LA averages 104.3 PPG and concedes 107.4. Brook Lopez averges 15.1 points and 4.9 boards per game, while Brandon Ingram adds 14.9 points. Despite his recent struggles, Lonzo Ball adds 8.8 points, 6.6 boards and 6.8 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Denver is just 1-5 ATS this year against teams with losing records and 0-3 ATS this season after scoring 115 points or more, while LA is 3-2 ATS against clubs with winning recrds and 5-4 ATS against good offensive teams which average 106 plus points per contest. I think the desperation in which the Lakers play with tonight, turns out to be the difference. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Celtics v. Hawks +6.5 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:35 EST). Is Boston ever going to lose again? The Celtics come to Atlanta on the heels of a 14-game win streak, including having just knocked off the defending champs at home in an impressive 92-88 victory on Thursday. I believe the C’s do finally have a letdown here though as I look for the hungry Hawks to take this one right down to the wire. The Hawks come in with momentum/confidence as well after smashing the Kings 126-80 in their most recent action, the team’s largest margin of victory of all time. Atlanta would go on to record 40 assists, which was the most in the league since December 15th, 2016 when the Warriors posted 41. "Right now we have (one of) the worst record in the NBA, so any win is a good win and we'll take it," Atlanta forward Taurean Prince assessed. Note that this is a revenge game for the Hawks as well after the Celtics won 110-107 back on November 6th. I’m expecting Atlanta to push the pace of this one and to not go down without a fight. Grab the points, play on the Hawks. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-17 | Heat +4.5 v. Wizards | Top | 91-88 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Miami Heat (7:05 EST). This is an immediate revenge scenario for the Heat after the Wizards took the first game of this home and home set 102-93 at South Beach on Wednesday. So far Miami averages 101.3 PPG, while conceding 103. Big man Hassan Whiteside contributes 15.7 points, plus 13.9 boards per game, while Dion Waiters adds 16.6 per contest. Washington averages 110.7 PPG and concedes 105. John Wall averages 20.8 points and 9.4 assists per game, while Bradley Beal contribues 23.9. The Heat though have responded well in this spot for bettors, going 19-10 ATS in their last 29 off an upset losss as a favorite, while also going 24-10 ATS in their last 34 when trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. Conversely, this is a position in which the Wizards have really struggled in, going 12-16 ATS in their last 28 off an upset win as an underdog (including 0-2 ATS this year.) With a tough road trip starting in Toronto on Sunday, I think the home side also gets caught looking ahead here. While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Heat. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-17 | Warriors -7 v. Celtics | Top | 88-92 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Golden State Wariors (8:05 EST). Warriors’ head coach Steve Kerr said two weeks ago that the Celtics were “the team of the future in the Eastern Conference.” Clearly Golden State has had this one circled on its calendar for a while now and while some may think the Celtics actually have a shot in this game, I definitely do not. Golden State has won seven straight, including a 110-100 win over Orlando on Monday. Boston has won 13 straight, most recently a 109-102 victory on the road in Brooklyn. The Warriors average 119.6 PPG and concede 107.7. Kevin Durant averages 24.8 points, 7.5 boards and 5.2 assists per game, while Stephen Curry posts 25.2 points, plust 6.7 assists per contest. The Celtics average 102.7 PPG and concede 94.5. Kyrie Irving leads the way with 20.6 points and 5.2 assists per game, while Jaylen Brown contributes 14.7 points and 6.7 boards. The Warriors are a unique team, as they can damage you in so many ways offensively. If you want to get into a “run and gun shootout,” then they have no problems with that. If you want to play a slower-paced game and run half court sets while on offense, they have no issues with that either. They hurt you from 3-point land, in the paint and also in transition. The Celtics have been amazing early, but I think they’re in for a rude awakening tonight. Lay the points, play on Golden State. Good luck…Larry |
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11-14-17 | Spurs -6 v. Mavs | Top | 97-91 | Push | 0 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:35 EST). The Spurs are rolling as they come in having won four of their last five, most recently smashing the Bulls 133-94 at home on Saturday. The Mavs are moving in the opposite direction, as they’ve lost two in a row and eight of their last nine after losing 112-99 at Oklahoma City on Sunday night. So far San Antonio averages 103 PPG and allows 99.6. Big man LaMarcus Aldridge is leading the nightly charge with 21.8 points and 8.5 boards per game, while Pau Gasol averages 10.9 points and 8.1 boards per game. Dallas averages 99.5 PPG and concedes 107.7. Harrison Barnes tops all players with 19 points and 7.1 boards per game, while rookie Dennis Smith Jr. averages 14.8 points and 4.9 assists per game. I’ll point out that the Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400, while Dallas is a horrible 1-10 ATS in its last 11 when playing on one days rest. Greg Popovich has his team firing on all cylinders again despite injuries to key players. That doesn’t bode well for this young Mavs side which is struggling with consistency across the board. All signs point to a rout. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-17 | Rockets v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 118-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Indiana (6:00 EST). Houston crushed the Grizzlies 111-96 just last night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a letdown here finally from the Rockets as they transition for this Eastern Conference contest. Conversely, Indiana looks ready to build off its 105-87 win over the Bulls on Friday to snap a four-game slide. Houston averages 110.5 PPG and concedes 104.1 .James Harden leads the team with 29.9 points and 4.9 boards per game. Indiana averages 109 PPG and concedes 108.4 Victor Oladipo had 25 points, six boards and six assists against the Bulls. I’ll point out though that Houston is just 2-3 ATS this year against teams with losing records and interestingly, just 1-3 ATS against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest, while Indiana is 20-14 ATS in its last 34 after allowing 90 points or less and already 3-2 ATS in front of the home town crowd this season. I think “the road” catches up to Harden and company today and the rested/focused Pacers at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-17 | Kings +5 v. Knicks | Top | 91-118 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Sacramento Kings (8:05 EST). The Kings come in with a ton of momentum as they’ve won two in a row, most recently a 109-108 upset victory at home over the 76ers. The Knicks on the other hand look primed for a letdown here. New York had won three straight and six of seven before losing their final game of their road trip, 112-99 in Orlando on Wednesday. The first game back from an extended trip often can be considered a “trap” for a team and I believe that will in fact be the case here today. Also note, not only is this is a “letdown” spot, but it’s also a “look ahead” spot as well for the Knicks, who have the Cavs coming to town on Monday night. The Kings have looked a lot better on both ends of the floor of late, but the team still ranks just 29th in scoring with 95.2. Sacramento has been better on the defensive end, ranked 11th by conceding 104.2. Zach Randolph leads the team with 13.6 PPG. But the Kings get the job done by committee, with Buddy Hield, Willie Cauley-Stein, George Hill and Vince Carter. New York averages 105.4 PPG and concedes 106.3 Kristaps Porzingis averages 30 points, 7.5 boards and 2.3 blocks per night. But as mentioned off the top, I love Sacramento to keep the momentum rolling and to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire against a distracted Knicks side. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-17 | Bucks +4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 94-87 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Milwaukee Bucks (9:05 EST). The 4-6 Milwaukee Bucks are in San Antonio to take on the 7-4 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry visitors. This the final game of an extended road trip for the Bucks and they come in having lost four straight, most recently a 124-119 setback to Cleveland on Tuesday. The Spurs enter on the other end of the spectrum, having won three in a row, most recently a 120-107 win over the Clippers on Tuesday. It’s interesting to note that these two teams split a pair of games last year, each winning on the others floor. Giannis Antetokounmpo led Milwaukee with 40 points, nine rebounds and four blocks in the loss to the Cavs. So far the Bucks average 105.4 PPG and concede 108.7. Note that the newly acquired Eric Bledsoe is supposed to suit up for Milwaukee tonight (and if he doesn’t, I still love this play as I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the home side.) The Spurs still only average 101.7 PPG, while conceding 100.6. So far big man LaMarcus Aldrige has filled the void left by still injured superstar Kawhi Leonard by averaging 22.6 points plus 8.3 boards per game. Aldridge had 25 in the Spurs latest victory. I’ll point out though that Milwaukee is 13-9 ATS in its last 22 after three or more consecutive SU losses, while San Antonio is just 37-43 ATS in its last 80 after three or more consecutive SU victories. I like the desperate Bucks to at the very least, take this one down to the wire for the comfortable ATS cover. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-07-17 | 76ers v. Jazz -7 | 104-97 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Utah Jazz (9:05 EST). Utah is coming off a humbling 137-110 loss in Houston, a game in which James Harden exploded for 56 points. Nothing that the normally steady Jazz can’t bounce back from though. Especially at home. The 76ers have won four in a row, including a 121-110 victory over the Pacers in their latest game. But with big man Joel Embiid expected to sit for rest purposes, I believe that Philadelphia will stumble in this tough road atmoshphere. JJ Redick was a stand out in the lastest victory with 31 points on 8 of 12 from range. Utah has actually lost two straight, also coming up short to the Raptors prevoius to the Rockets setback. Center Rudy Gobert looks to bounce back as well after just 13 points and five boards in that one. I think it’s interesting to note though that Philadelphia is just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 after playing to three or more consecutive “overs,” while utah is already 5-1 ATS at home this season and 20-12 ATS in its last 32 after a loss by ten points or more. Expect a return to the norm on the defensive side of the ball for the Jazz on their home floor tonight and look for the 76ers to struggle without Embiid in the line-up. Lay the points, play on Utah. Good luck….Larry |
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11-06-17 | Celtics v. Hawks +8.5 | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:30 EST). The 8-2 Boston Celtics are in Atlanta to take on the 2-8 Hawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Both teams come in off victories, with the Celtics winning their eighth straight with a 104-88 win over Orlando, while the Hawks notched their second victory of the season with a huge 117-115 upset win over the Cavs in Cleveland yesterday afternoon. These teams average the same amount of points almost, with the C’s pouring in 102.8 per night, while the Hawks average 101.1. That’s where the similarities end though, as ATL is ranked 24th in scoring defense by conceding over 110 per game, while Boston is No. 1 on the defensive side by allowing just 93.8. Clearly the Celtics are the better team, but with a three-game home stand starting on Wednesday with the Lakers up first, I think this sets up as a classic “trap” for the visitors. Atlanta on the other hand can’t afford to bask in the glory of its big win over Cleveland last night after the terrible start to the year. Back-to-back upsets? Maybe. But in a contest which I foresee being decided late, I’m going to grab the points just in case. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-17 | Thunder v. Blazers +3 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Portland Trailblazers (9:05 EST). The 4-4 Oklahoma City Thunder are in Portland to take on the 5-4 Trailblazers on Sunday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. OKC comes in off a deflating 101-94 loss to the Celtics at home and I think that residual disappointment gets carried over here. The Thunder have looked great defensively, but the offense has yet to find its stride. The Blazers got back into the winners circle after a short two-game slide, holding on for a 113-110 victory over the Lakers on Thursday. And now I think Portland carries that momentum over here. Paul George had 25 points and ten boards, while Russell Wesbrook added 19 points, 11 assists and six boards in the Thunder’s crushing loss to Boston. Carmelo Anthony though was just 3 of 17 from the floor, finishing with ten points. Portland needed a a last second three-pointer to beat the upstart Lakers from Damian Lillard to seal the victory. Lillard would go on to finish with 32 points, going 14 of 14 from the charity stripe. In all the Blazers would hit 24 of 27 from the free throw line. I’ll point out as well that Oklahoma City is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against the Western Conference, while Portland is 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 110 points or more in its previous contest. With a more “winnable” game at Sacramento on deck, I think OKC gets caught looking ahead here as well. Play on Portland. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-17 | Mavs v. Wolves -13 | Top | 99-112 | Push | 0 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST). The 1-9 Dallas Mavericks are in Minnesota to take on the 5-3 Timberwolves on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Dallas comes in off a listless 99-94 loss at home to New Orleans just last night. Minnesota is trending in the opposite direction, it won its third straight by beating the Pelicans 104-98 on the road Wednesay. The Wolves took two of three meetings between the teams last year, with the home side winning each time. So far the Mavs average just 98.2 points, while conceding 108.3. Harrison Barnes leads the way with 16.3 points and 6.1 boards per game. The Wolves average 108.8 PPG and allow 113.1. Andrew Wiggins averages 19.5 PPG, while Karl Anthony Towns puts in 21.4 points and 11 boards. With a game at home tomorrow night against Charlotte (before a big road trip, with a stop in Golden State to kick things off), I’m fully expecting Minnesota to push the pace of this one from the opening tip until the final horn. And a chance to pad their defensive stats against this tired and dejected Mavs team, I expect the Timberwolves to lay the hammer down and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Good luck…Larry |
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11-03-17 | Nets +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 112-124 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Brookly Nets (10:30 EST). The 3-5 Brooklyn Nets are in LA to take on the 3-5 Lakers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The young Lakers come in off a hard-fought and disheartening 113-110 loss at Portland just last night and clearly they’re going to be “gassed” here. The Nets will look to take advantage. After starting 3-2, Brooklyn has lost three in a row. Brooklyn remains in the top ten in the league in scoring, but is now also once again one of the worst on the defensive side of the floor. D’Angelo Russell leads the nightly charge with 21.7 points, 5.7 assists and 4.1 boards per game. LA moved Russell to the Nets so that it could make room for Lonzo Ball, so expect the ex-Laker to go out and try and prove a point tonight. Additionally I’ll point out that the Nets have done extremely well against the Pacific for a long time now by going 41-18-2 ATS in their last 61 against the division, while LA has struggled in this spot for bettors by going just 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 against the Atlantic. The situation favors the visitors, I like Brooklyn to pull away down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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11-03-17 | Bulls v. Magic -8 | 105-83 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Orlando Magic (7:05 EST). The 1-5 Chicago Bulls are in Orlando to take on the 6-2 Magic and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Chicago is reeling, it’s lost two straight, most recently a 97-91 setback on the road to Miami on Wednesday, while Orlando comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won two straight and five of six, most recently a 101-99 effort over the Grizzlies on the road. This would usually set up as a bit of a letdown spot for Orlando, a team that’s overachieved on a road trip returns home and lays an egg in its first game. However, I don’t think that will be the case tonight so early in the season. Chicago ranks as the worst offense in the entire league with just 90 PPG. It’s been decent defesively, allowing only 101.2 PPG, but clearly this isn’t a recipie for success. Lauri Markkanen leads the team with 17.2 points plust 9.3 boards per game. The Magic are second in the league in scoring with 114.9 PPG, while ranked 18th on the defensive side in conceding 106.8. Evan Fournier leads a balanaced attack with 22 points per game, while high-flyer Aaron Gordon adds 20.7 points, plus 8.7 boards per game. I’ll point out that Chicago is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against clubs with winning straight up records, while Orlando is in fact 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after playing three consecutive road games. The Bulls will get Portis back next week, but until then I have a hard time seeing Chicago keeping pace with the surging Magic. Lay the points with confidence, play on Orlando. Good luck…Larry |
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11-02-17 | Lakers v. Blazers -7 | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Portland Trailblazers (10:35 EST). The 3-4 LA Lakers are in Portland to take on the 4-4 Blazers. LA had lost two straight before smashing the Pistons 113-93 at home on Tuesday. Portland though comes in off consecutive losses, falling 99-85 to the Raptors on Monday, before dropping a hard-fought 112-103 OT loss in Utah last night. With a game at home tomorrow night against Brooklyn though, I think the young Lakers get caught “looking ahead” to that one. LA is averaging just 103.4 PPG, while allowing 106.6, while Portland is averaging 107.6 PPG and conceding just 98.3. The duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum is a formidable one. The Lakers are filled with a ton of talent, but not a lot of experience. LA has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors as well, going just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 after a win by ten points or more, while Portland has excelled in this position by going 27-18 ATS in its last 45 against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest. After a stretch of poor play, I expect Portland to defend its home floor against the up-start Lakers. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-01-17 | Hawks +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:05 EST). The 1-6 Atlanta Hawks are in Philadelphia to take on the 3-4 76ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Hawks are going to be desperate tonight after dropping six straight, most recently falling 117-106 at home to Milwaukee on Sunday. Conversely, I think the young 76ers look primed for a letdown here after their second consecutive victory, most recently posting an impressive (and highly satisfying) 115-107 road win over Houston on Monday. Dennis Schroder led Atlanta with 21 points and eight assists in his team’s most recent setback. So far ATL is ranked 25th in scoring with 99.6 PPG, while ranked 19th in scoring defense by conceding 107.6. Marco Belinelli contributes 14.6 points and 2.6 boards per game. Philadelphia averages 104.1 PPG, while ranked 21st on the defensive end in conceding 108.3. The 76ers shot an unreal 55 percent from the floor in their win over the Rockets. Joel Embiid leads the team with an average of 20.8 points and ten boards per contest. I’ll point out though that the Hawks have excelled in this spot for bettors, going 15-11 ATS in their last 26 when playing with two days of rest, while the 76ers are interestingly just 16-21 ATS in their last 37 against the Southeast division. I’m not calling for an outright victory, but I do definitely expect the hungry Hawks to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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10-31-17 | Suns v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:30 EST). The 2-4 Phoenix Suns are in Brooklyn to take on the 3-4 Nets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Phoenix travels across the country after falling 114-107 in Portland on Saturday, while Brooklyn lost its second straight in a 124-111 setback at home to the Nuggest on Sunday. So far the Suns are ranked 19th in the league in scoring with 102.5 PPG, while ranked second to last on the defensive side in conceding 117.2. Devin Booker had 34 points in the loss to Portland. With Eric Bledsoe now gone, TJ Warren will be leaned upon more, so far he’s chipped in 14 points and 5.2 boards per game. The Nets are dominating offensively, averaging 114.7 PPG. Unfortunatley for Brooklyn though it’s conceding 118.3 (the worst in the league.) Spencer Dinwiddle came off the bench to lead the Nets with 22 points in the team’s most recent setback. But so far D’Angelo Russell leads the nightly charge with 19.8 points and 5.2 assists per game. From a trend based stand point, this was favors the home side as note that Phoenix has struggled in this spot for bettors for some time now, going just 4-15 ATS in its last 19 when playing with two days rest, while Brooklyn has excelled by going 13-6 ATS in its last 19 against the Pacific division. The Suns’ lack of depth will continue to be a problem for the team until it can deal Bledsoe. Brooklyn comes in rested, focused and healthy. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | Rockets v. Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 89-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:05 EST). Houston is 5-1 and comes in off a big 109-93 win at Charlotte just last night. Memphis will look to take advantage of a tired and complacent Rockets team and build off its latest 96-91 victory at home over Dallas on Thursday. And if recent history is any precedence, then the Grizz have to be liking their chances, as note that Memphis scored the 98-90 road win over the Rockets back on October 23rd. Houston averages 105.8 PPG and concedes 102.8. With last night’s victory at Charlotte, the Rockets are already 4-0 on the road to start the year. Can anyone say letdown spot here? Not surprisingly, James Harden is leading the charge with 26.4 PPG, while Eric Gordon contributes 24.6. Memphis averages 100.4 PPG and concdes just 95.2. Marc Gasol averages 25 points and 10.8 boards per game, while Mike Conley adds 19.4 points and 4.2 assists per night. With a night off before a “cream puff” at home against Philadelphia, it’s not too hard to imagine the Rockets also getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. I’m banking on the Grizzlies taking advantage. Play on Memphis. Good luck…Larry |
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10-26-17 | Hawks +2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 86-91 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Hawks (8:00 EST). The 1-3 Atlanta Hawks are in Chicago to take the 0-3 Bulls and in my opinion, all signs point to a cover for the visiting side. The Hawks opened the year with a win but have since dropped three straight, most recently a 104-93 setback at Miami on Monday. The Bulls can empathize, as they’ve lost three straight as well, most recently a 119-112 setback on the road in Cleveland. So far ATL is ranked 21st in scoring in the early going with 103.3 PPG, while ranked 20th in scoring defense in conceding 110. Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince each had 20 points in the Hawks most recent setback. Chicago is averaging 96.3 PPG, while allowing 107.7. Justin Holiday had 25 points in the Bulls’ most recent loss. I’ll point out that ATL is 4-1 ATS in its last five agains the Central division, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 100 points or more in its previous contest and just 1-5 ATS in its last six against the Eastern Conference. Mirotic and Portis are still out for Chicago, making the Hawks the deeper overall team tonight. I like Atlanta to take advantage of that fact and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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10-25-17 | Wizards -7 v. Lakers | Top | 99-102 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizards (10:35 EST). With a game at Golden State up next, I think the Wizards leave everything on the floor tonight as the team tries to move to 4-0 to open a season for the first time since 1974. Washington most recently defeated Denver 109-104 on Monday, while the Lakers enter off a 119-112 setback at home to New Orleans on Sunday. So far the Wizards are averaging 115 PPG this year. Bradley Beal averages 23.3 PPG, while John Wall averages 24.3 PPG and 10.0 assists. Forward Otto Porter addes 18.3 points and 9.0 boards. The Lakers struggled with the Pelicans’ big men and they’ll have their hands full again tonight. All eyes will once again be on LaVar Ball for LA, he’s so far averaging 9.4 points, 8 boards and 12 assists per game. I’ll point out though that the Lakers are just 14-27 ATS in their last 41 against good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per contest, while the Wizards are 20-16 ATS in their last 36 against poor defensive teams which allow 106 points per game. Wall and Beal are on a mission right now and won’t be “looking past” the Lakers today. Instead, this is a golden opportunity for Washington before a tough game on Friday night in Golden State. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-25-17 | Pacers v. Thunder -13 | 96-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:05 EST). The Pacers are primed for a letdown here after their epic 130-107 beatdown win over the Wolves as a ten point dog on the road last night. Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the 1-2 Thunder today, who come into this one off consecutive losses, including a 115-113 setback to Minnesota in their latest. The Thunder actually had 38 points in the fourth quarter in the loss against the Wolves, but it wasn’t enough after a shaky start to the contest. Russell Westbrook had 31 points in that one. Paul George though will be looking to do some damage against his former team though and after posting just 14 points in the setback to Minnesota. I’ll point out though that Indiana is just 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 when playing on zero days rest, while the OKC Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last eight against the Eastern conference. Indiana has allowed an average of 119 points so far this year and it comes in contented after last night’s upset win. The Thunder on the other hand will be eager for a big performance after a slow start to the season. No need to overthink this one, play on OKC. Good luck…Larry |
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10-25-17 | Cavs -6.5 v. Nets | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (7:35 EST). Chicago gave Cleveland more of a fight than expected last night, but the Cavs would pull away down the stretch for the 119-112 victory in the end. Brooklyn also played last night and it’ll limp home after falling 125-121 in Orlando. LeBron James is not surprisingly leading the way so far for the Cavs this year with 25 points, 8.3 boards and 6.3 assists per game. Kevin Love chips in 17 points and 10.3 boards per contest. Cleveland wasn’t the best in back-to-back scenarios last season, going just 7-11, but clearly it catches a break here facing the lowly Nets, who also come in off a game just last night. The Nets are second in the league in scoring offense and second to last in scoring defense. Brooklyn’s struggles in back-to-back games was much worse that the Cavs last year as it would go just 1-13 in such instances, allowing an average of 115.6 points in those contests. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 on the road, while Brooklyn is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games against a team with a winning road record. I think the Cavs’ veteran experience in the second game of the back to back situation proves to be the difference tonight. Lay the points with confidence, play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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10-24-17 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Blazers | 93-103 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New Orleans Pelicans (10:05 EST). The 1-2 New Orleans Pelicans will look to use their size to score an upset win over the smaller 2-1 Portland Trailblazers today. New Orleans comes in off a 119-112 road win over the Lakers on Saturday, while the Blazers look poised for another letdown here in my opinion after their first loss of the season in a 113-110 setback at Milwaukee. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Pelicans have to be liking their chances tonight as they’d go on to take three of four in the series last season. So far New Orleans is averaging 110 PPG, while allowing 114.3. Anthony Davis is averaging 31.7 PPG and 17.3 RPG. DeMarcus Cousins is posting 28.3 points and 11.7 boards per contest. Portland is so far averaging 116 points and conceding just 95. Damian Lillard is averaging 23.7 points and 5.3 assists per game while CJ McCollum has posted 27 PPG thus far. I’ll also point out that the Blazers are a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight against good offensive teams which average 106 plus points per contest, while the Pelicans are 23-20 ATS in their last 43 in the same position. The duo of Davis and Cousins is a considerable one and now it appears as if their supporting cast is finally starting to wake up after the convincing road win over the up-start Lakers. The Blazers got out to a quick start, but looked exposed in the loss to the Bucks. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for New Orleans to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-17 | Mavs v. Rockets -12 | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Rockets (8:05 EST). Chris Paul is out for the Rockets for 2 to 4 weeks, but I don’t think that’s going to matter in the end. The Mavs look horrible, losing their opener 117-111 at home and then falling 93-88 to the Kings as a 6 point favorite just last night. Houston has won two in a row after beating Sacramento 105-100 on Wednesday. And if recent history is any precedence, then the home side has to be liking its chances tonight, as the Rockets would go on to take all four games in the series last season. Depth seems to be a major issue early in Dallas and the second game of a back-to-back doesn’t bode well for Dirk Nowitzki and company (note that the Mavs are a poor 6-11 ATS in their last 17 off an upset loss as a favorite.) Houston knocked off Golden State by 1 point on Opening Night and then battled from behind to beat Sacramento as well. So far the Rockets have averaged 113.5 PPG, while allowing 110.5. James Harden led the way last year and so far this season he’s also leading the team with 27 points, 4.5 board and 9.5 assists per night. Note that the Rockets hit 27 of 29 free throws in the victory over the Kings as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Dallas is just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven against the Western Conference, while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing on two dasy of rest. I like Harden to push the pace from start to finish and for the home side to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover once it’s all said and done. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-17 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +7.5 | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:05 EST). While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I do definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up to what will be a highly focused and prepared home side. Besides, the Warriors come to town off a satisfying and harder than expected 128-120 win at New Orleans just last night. Note that Golden State has been bad in this spot for bettors over the last few years as well, going just 14-19 ATS in its last 33 after allowing 115 points or more. Golden State was pretty good in the second game of back-to-backs last year, but the Grizzlies are a tough home team. In its win over the Pelicans most recently, Memphis would go on to force 18 turnovers. Mike Conley went on to post 27 points. Additionally note that the Grizzlies have played well against the tough Pacific division, going 4-1 ATS in their last five against it. I think the Memphis defense keeps the home side competitive late, so grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-17 | 76ers v. Raptors -9 | 94-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:35 EST). I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. Despite finishing among the best in the East the last few years, I think that the Raptors are being severely undervalued in this spot. Last season the Raptors were tenth in scoring with 106.9 per contest, while eighth on the defensive side in conceding 102.6. The 76ers were one of the worst teams in the league last year, but they should be vastly improved this season with a young core of Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz. The sky is the limit for this young Philadelphia team, but clearly it’s going to take more time for it to reach its full potential. With Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan leading the show in Toronto though, the time is NOW for the Raptors. Note that Jonas Valanciunas had 23 points and 15 boards in his team’s 117-100 win over the visiting Bulls on Opening night. Embiid is out for this one, as the 76ers work him back into game shape after sitting out most of last season with injury, meaning that Valanciunas has a major advantage tonight. I’m banking on Toronto’s depth to be too much for the younger 76ers to handle down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-20-17 | Jazz v. Wolves -4.5 | 97-100 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST). Jeff Teague replaces Ricky Rubio as point guard in Minnesota this year. Rubio returns to Minnesota tonight as part of the Utah Jazz. Minnesota head coach Tom Thibodeau brought over Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler to the Wolves as well in the offseason. Minneosta now looks to punch its first win of the year after falling 107-99 at San Antonio in its season opener on Wednesday. Andrew Wiggins had 26 points, while Karl Anthony Towns had 18 points and 13 boards: "We didn't close out the way we needed to against a team like that," Thibodeau said. "You have to play, particularly down the stretch. We just have to do better. We didn't have a lot of turnovers, but the ones we had were very costly. That's something we have to take a look at." I think the Jazz come in a bit complacent here after their big 106-96 opening night win agaisnt the Nuggets on Wednesday. Big man Rudy Gobert was a standout with 18 points and ten boards. Minnesota though plays with revenge tonight after Utah took took three of four meetings a year ago. Additionally I’ll point out that Utah is just 22-23 ATS in its last 45 following a victory by ten points or more, while Minnesota is 45-31 ATS in its last 76 against a team with a winning record. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Wolves. Good luck…Larry |
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10-18-17 | Blazers v. Suns | Top | 124-76 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Phoenix Suns (10:00 EST). Portland was 41-41 last year and got swept in the first round by the Warriors. Phoenix was just 24-58 and missed the postseason for a seventh consecutive year. Note that this is a revenge game for the Suns after the Blazers took three of four meetings last season, including in the last one, a 130-117 home win on April 1st. The Blazers averaged 107.9 PPG last season and conceded 108.5. Damian Lillard averaged 27 PPG and 5.9 assists, while CJ McCollum chipped in 23. The Suns averaged 107.7 PPG and allowed 113.3, which was last in the league. Phoenix added Josh Jackson, Mike James, Alec Peters and Davon Reed in the offseason. Eric Bledsoe led the nightly charge with 21.1 PPG last year, while Devin Booker averaged 22.1 PPG. Phoenix won’t have McCollum in the ilne-up though due to a one game suspension, which I think will be a big difference maker on Opening Night. I like the Suns to hold serve on their own floor and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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10-18-17 | Wolves +2.5 v. Spurs | 99-107 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 7 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (9:30 EST). Minnesota was 31-51 last year, but is expected to make big strides this season with the continued development of star players Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. The Wolves also brought in veteran guard Jimmy Butler from Chicago, who looks re-focused and in great shape coming out of the preseason. Last year the Wolves averaged 105.6 PPG and allowed 106.7. The Spurs averaged 105.3 PPG and allowed 98.1. San Antonio should once again be a strong defensive club, but it lacks offensive firepower. The team signed Rudy Gay, but Kawhi Leonard is expected to miss tonight’s game. San Antonio signed big man LaMarcus Aldridge to a long-term deal, but along with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, the Spurs are certainly not getting any younger right now. With Parker and Leonard out of the line-up for the home side, I have a hard time seeing the Spurs keeping pace with the high-flying Wolves. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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10-18-17 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 30 h 8 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Bucks (7:30 EST). Boston lost its Opening Night game in Cleveland last night and it also lost All Star Gordon Hayward for the season after he suffered a gruesome leg injury. Now the deflated C’s have to retiurn home and try to muster up the same energy to face a Bucks team that can smell the blood in the water. Milwaukee made the playoffs last year and then lost in six games to the Raptors in the first round. The Bucks didn’t make too many changes in the offseason Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to have a massive year for the Bucks. He’s joined by Jabari Parker and Greg Monroe and in my opinion, they have a very legitimate shot at taking this one outright. Kyrie Irving looked pretty good last night for his new team, but with the knowledge that Hayward is now out for the year and coming off the setback in Cleveland, I think this absolutely sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Celtics right out of the gates here. No need to overthink this one in my opinion, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-17-17 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 122-121 | Win | 100 | 76 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Houston Rockets (10:35 EST). Houston won 55 games last year and finished as the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. James Harden averaged 29.1 PPG and posted an NBA best 11.2 assists and finished second in the MVP race behind Russell Westrbrook. Harden has some big time help in the form of All-Star point guard Chis Paul and now the Rockets will look to even better their results in 2017/18. And what better test than against the best in the league? The Warriors are back on top after defeating the Cavaliers in five games last season. Golden State didn’t do too much to its lineup and is once again expected to contend for the NBA title once it’s all said and done. I’ll point out though that Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road, while Golden State is interestingly just 1-2 ATS in its last three Opening Night games. Houston is out for revenge here after faling in five games to Golden State in the conference finals last year, except this time it has arguably the best point guard in the World running the show. While I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do definitely believe this is a few too many points to be giving up here. Play on Houston. Good luck…Larry |
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06-12-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 120-129 | Push | 0 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (9:00 EST). With their backs against the wall, I think the Cavaliers will at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a very healthy spread afforded to them in this one. Down 3-0, the Cavs came out like gang-busters and never looked in their big Game 4 victory and clearly there won’t be any change in game-plan tonight. Cleveland will have to throw everything it has at the Warriors once again if it has any hopes of taking this one back to its own floor. The Cavs though finally solved the Warriors defense after setting several offensive records in Game 4. One of the biggest differences though was the play of the Cavs role players, who finally stepped up and made their presence known. Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle a little on the money line?” I’m not. I simply feel that the Cavs made some big time adjustments in Game 4 and I believe they’re going to take what they learned and make it extremely difficult on the Warriors again tonight. I’ll also point out that Cleveland is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 115 points or more, while Golden State is just 1-5 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more and only 5-7 ATS this season after allowing 115 points or more. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Cavs. Good luck…Larry |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +3 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -105 | 59 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (9:00 EST). I took the Cavs in Game 1 and lost badly. I took the Cavs in Game 2 and lost badly. I’m taking the Cavaliers in Game 3 as well and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The addage: “Don’t underestimate the heart of a champion,” is pretty apt in this situation as far as I’m concerned. It’s do-or-die for LeBron James and company, as clearly a 3-0 hole against these 2017 Warriors would simply be too much overcome. And for me, that’s what this pick comes down to, as I’m expecting the defending champs to risk life and limb tonight to secure a victory. The difference in this series so far hasn’t been the superstars on each side. James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have all played well for Cleveland and Golden State has been getting big time production from its three stars as well in Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. The difference has been the bench production. Golden State’s role players have to this point absolutely domianted their counterparts. But with the shift in venue, I think that major factor is about to change. And that’s going to be the difference for James, Irving and Love, over their three all star counterparts. I’ll point out as well that the Warriors are just 7-8 ATS this year when playing on two days rest, while Cleveland is 3-1 ATS in its last four in the same position. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Cavaliers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-04-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 113-132 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:00 EST). I played Cleveland in Game 1 and felt pretty good about the pick heading into half. LeBron James looked strong and the Cavaliers were only down by five. But Golden State was able to slow down James in the second half and unfortunately, no one else was really able to step up. Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving both had decent outings, but not spectacular. For Cleveland to beat Golden State, James needs both Love and Irving to play spectacular every night. He also needs his bench to give him some support, as the Warriors’ reserves drastically outplayed their counterparts. Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle a little on the money line” as well? Of course not. I simply feel this is too many points to be giving up to the defending champs, as I expect coach Tyrone Lou to make adjustments. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland has performed well for bettors in this spot over the last couple of years, going 6-4 ATS in its last ten when trailing in a playoff series, while Golden State has struggled in this position by going just 6-8 ATS this season when playing with two days rest. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Cavaliers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-01-17 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -110 | 158 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (9:00 EST). I’m with Golden State head coach Steve Kerr on this series. How come the Warriors are such massive favs to win it all? Cleveland is the defending champ and it’s stacked top to bottom with talent. It’s also led by the single best player on the planet in LeBron James. Am I saying the Cavs are going to win this series? I am not. Am I saying that Cleveland is going to win Game 1 outright? Also, I am not. But I do think that this veteran laden Cavaliers team can at the very least, take this one down to the wire and cover with what I feel to be a very ample spread. From a situational stand point, this one also sets up extremely well for the Cavaliers, as this is in fact a spot in which Cleveland has performed extremely well in for bettors all season, while this is a position in which the Warriors have struggled in mightily. As note, the Cavs are a perfect 4-0 ATS this year when playing with three or more days rest, while the Warriors are just 3-4 ATS in the same position. Both teams have great offenses, but the Warriors are better on that end of the floor. Both teams have adequate defenses, but the Cavaliers are slightly better on that end of the floor. I think Cleveland comes to play in Game 1 as it looks to at the very least, get a split in Golden State before heading back to Defend The Land! Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-22-17 | Warriors v. Spurs +11.5 | Top | 129-115 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:00 EST). Will the Warriors stumble like the Cavaliers did last night and lose this one outright? Probably not. But the Spurs won’t be going down without a fight, so while I’ll stop short in calling for the upset, I do think that the home side will play with pride and keep this one competitive until the final moments. Other than Za Za Pachulia’s injury, there’s nothing much to report about the Warriors. They remain the highest scoring team in the playoffs, while ranked in the middle of the pack defensively. Exactly the same as in the regular season. The Spurs on the other hand are now ravaged with injury. They lost Tony Parker in Round 1, then Kawhi Leonard in Game 1 of this series. David Lee went down in Game 3 and is out for the remainder of the year as well. But San Antonio still has weapons in LaMarcus Aldridge and Manu Ginobili. Like the Celtics, one of the main strengh’s of the Spurs is their incredible depth. I think the Spurs’ effort in this one will be the difference maker in the end. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-21-17 | Celtics +14.5 v. Cavs | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is the Boston Celtics (8:30 EST). I got down on this one early (before it was announced that Celtics’ star Isaiah Thomas would be out for the remainder of the playoffs) and have a poor line. But regardless, I still like this play as I expect the undermanned Celtics to fight hard, to keep this one competitive down the stretch and I look for it to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample amount of points they’ve been afforded. Cleveland will look to jump out to an early insurmountable lead, but with the knowledge that Thomas is out, will the Cavs rest some of their starters in the second half? Very likely, as the defending champs can now safely start “looking ahead” to their third straight matchup with the Warriors in the Finals. I’ll point out though that Boston is still 10-5 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more, while Cleveland is just 3-4 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or less. Even with Thomas out, I think the Celtics respond after their historic beatdown loss in Game 2. The Spurs weren’t able to cover last night with their superstar out, but I believe all signs point to Celtics being able to succeed, where San Antonio failed.. Grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 59 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Boston Celtics (8:00 EST). This has been a back-and-forth series. So far the home team has won every game “straight-up,” but the Celtics were able to cover the spread in Game 6 despite the setback. I think the Celtics are the better overall team and have a clear advantage in this situation on their home floor and in the end, I expect them to find a way to get the job done. Washington shot only 43 percent from the floor and was just 5 of 24 from range in Game 6, while also hitting only 13 of 21 from the charity stripe. Bradley Beal was a standout with 33 points, while John Wall added 26. Boston had a chance to wrap this up in six games, but was sunk by the last second shot by Wall. Avery Bradley and Isaiah Thomas had 27 points apiece in the setback. I’ll point out though that Washington is just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road and 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four at home and 6-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory. Boston fought tooth and nail for the entire regular season so that it could ensure home court throughout the playoffs and in pivotal Game 7 scenarios just like this. So here we are. I think the Celtics pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-14-17 | Spurs +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 58 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the San Antonio Spurs (3:30 EST). If the Spurs have any hopes of pulling off an upset in this series, I think they obviously have to gain a split in Golden State. And of the two games, I believe Game 1 is the best opportunity for an underdog to steal one. Last night I had a play on the +190 Senators in their Game 1 upset over the Penguins in the NHL. While I will stop short in calling for an outright upset in this one, I do expect San Antonio to throw its best punch in Game 1 and I look for it to keep this one competitive until the final moments (remember, San Antonio started the season off with an opening night win in Golden State this year.) The Spurs last played on Thursday, while the Warriors have been off since Monday. Will rest lead to rust? Probably not, but the extra few days off has also been beneficial for San Antonio, as top scorer Kawhi Leonard who sat out the Game 6 blowout over the Rockets, has been given the green light to go in this one. Clearly it won’t be easy. The Warriors are favored for a reason as they have an offense which is almost impossible to stop. The Spurs though did completely stop the Rockets’ James Harden in Game 6 though, holding him to a season-low ten points. San Antonio has a flexible defense that’s built around trying to stop Golden State in the playoffs. So here we go. The Spurs had the No. 1 defense in the regular season and the Warriors had the No. 1 offense. I’ll point out that San Antonio is 20-15 ATS this year following a win by ten points or more, while Golden State is just 2-3 ATS this season when playing with three or more days rest. Surely the Spurs could have run the table on the Jazz as well. And likely the Rockets could have taken at least one game from the Warriors if these teams had switched second round opponents. Regardless, I think San Antonio is not getting nearly enough respect here. Play on the Spurs. Good luck…Larry |
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05-10-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -107 | 58 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washignton Wizards (8:00 EST). I played on Boston in Game’s 1 and 2 and then backed Washington in Game’s 3 and 4. So far home floor advantage has meant everything in this series, but I think that changes tonight. The Wizards made some key adjustments over the last two games that I think the Celtics will continue to struggle with. And I also believe that Boston star Isaiah Thomas is much more mentally burnt than even he realizes. Thomas’ sister was tragically killed in a car accident the night before his first round series with the Bulls. The Celtics went on to lose the first two games of that series at home, but then Thomas was able to recover a bit from the initial shock and he used his anger to fuel his team to six straight victories. Boston needed two epic come-from behind efforts in Game’s 1 and 2 of this series, but with Thomas once again starting to struggle, I have a hard time seeing the C’s keeping pace with the high-flying Wizards in Game 5. I’ll point out as well that Washington is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS in its last nine when playing on two days rest, while Boston is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 in the same situation. I think the duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal continues to be just too much for the Celtics to handle and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. It’s a perfect storm of factor working in favor of of the Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
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05-08-17 | Warriors -8 v. Jazz | Top | 121-95 | Win | 100 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Golden State Warriors (9:00 EST). Just like the Cavaliers did to the Raptors last night, I’m expecting the Warriors to put the Jazz out of their misery this evening. Golden State is in the drivers seat and will be wanting to match Cleveland with the perfect 8-0 start. Kevin Durant was a monster in Game 3, finishing with 38 points in the 102-91 victory. Even without Durant in the lineup near the end of the regular season, the Warriors cruised to 14 straight victories. None were even close. Golden State has yet to win a game in this series in blowout fashion, but I think the deflated Jazz are ripe for the picking here. Gordon Hayward was a standout for the Jazz in Game 3 with 29 points and big man Rudy Gobert contributed 21, but they didn’t get much help after that. The numbers/trends definitely support us today as well, as Golden State is 8-0 ATS its last eight on the road and 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 when playing on one days rest, while Utah is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six in front of the home town crowd. The Warriors have been toying with the Jazz to this point in my opinion and I’m expecting the biggest rout of the series in Game 4. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Houston Rockets (9:00 EST). The Rockets crushed the Spurs by 27 points in Game 1, but San Antonio has bounced back to take the next two. I think Houston is going to rally in Game 4 though as it’ll look to push the pace from start to finish and run San Antonio off the court. This is essentially a “do-or-die” for the Rockets, as a 3-1 deficit would likely just be too much for the team to overcome, especially with all of the experience on the Spurs. So this is it. Houston will be leaving everything it has on the floor tonight. Clearly this one means just as much to the Spurs, but I’ll point out that they’re just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 when leading in a playoff series and just 2-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog. And note, the Rockets have performed extremely well for bettors in this spot this season, going 9-3 ATS in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent and 11-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. Despite the Game 3 setback, Houston is still 3-1 on its home floor this year. I think the desperate home side is the correct call tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-07-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 57 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Wizards (6:30 EST). I played Boston in Game’s 1 and 2 and then backed Washington in Game 3. For a number of different reasons, I think the home side will also take Game 4. Clearly “home court” is going to play a significant role in this series. After two opening losses to Chicago, Boston rattled off six straight wins and looked primed for a letdown in Game 3. The Wizards had double digit leads in both Game’s 1 and 2, so Washington was finally able to play a complete four-quarters in Game 3 and suffice it to say, I think the teams carries over that confidence and momentum in Game 4. The Celtics have been playing extremely “emotional” in these playoffs and that can be very draining. Isaiah Thomas’ sister was tragically killed just before Boston’s opening series with the Bulls and the Celtics’ superstar has used her death to drive him to this point. However, I think Thomas is gassed both physically and mentally right now. The Wizards’ Kelly Oubre Jr. has been suspended for this game after he body checked Kelly Olynyk in the second quarter. Washington vowed to be more physicaly in Game 3 and it certainly was, as there were three ejections and 52 personal fouls overall. Washington did a great job on the boards, winning 50-38 while also knocking down 22 of 25 from the charity stripe. I’ll point out that Boston is just 7-18 ATS in its last 28 when playing on two days rest, while Washington is 7-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the home side, play on the Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +2 | 115-94 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 21 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:00 EST). The public has been cleaning up in this series, as the Cavs and the “over” have both gone on to cash with ease over the first two games. Kyle Lowry may be out of this game, but I think the Raptors have a fantastic opportunity to steal one from the defending champs and get right back into this series. So far it’s been fairly “easy” for the Cavs, who steamrolled the Pacers in four games in their opening round matchup, only to then also dominate the first two games against Toronto. If ever Cleveland was going to have a “letdown,” then this is it. The Cavs have been playing at an extremely high level for six straight games and now hit the road to face a Raptors teach which is in “do-or-die” mode. The same sort of situation occured last night with the Celtics. I had played Boston in Game’s 1 and 2 of its series against Washington, but came back with the Wizards in Game 3 last night. The C’s had won six in a row after dropping the first two to the Bulls in their opening round, but finally looked primed for a letdown in Game 3 after the extended stretch of high-level play. The exact same thing applies to Cleveland tonight. I’ll point out that the Cavs are just 9-13 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU victories, while the Raptors are 7-4 ATS after playing three consecutive road games and 3-1 ATS in their last four after allowing 115 points or more. I think the dynamic of this series shifts dramatically tonight. Play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Wizards (8:00 EST). I played on Boston in Game’s 1 and 2, but with their backs against the wall and essentially in a do-or-die scenario, I think the Wizards play their best game of the series and claw their way back into it. Washington had its chance in Game 2, but would eventually fall apart down the stretch, losing 129-119 in OT on Tuesday. Boston has been on an absolute tear since Game 3 of its opening round series against the Bulls by winning six straight. That’s an awful lot of high-intensity, focused games in a row and suffice it to say, I think Game 3 sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the visitors, who I think will finally be caught a little “flat-footed” tonight. And clearly for the Wizards, this is a “must win” game, as a 3-0 deficit would likely be too much for the team to overcome. I’ll point out that Boston is already just 5-15 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU victories and only 9-11 ATS after a victory by ten points or more, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 115 points or more. The Wizards are fighting for their playoff lives, while the Celtics are looking to catch their breath after an extended streak of high-level play. When you add it all up, the correct call is indeed on the home side in this one. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-03-17 | Raptors +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Toronto Raptors (7:05 EST). I played the Raptors in Game 1 and obviously came up short. I think Toronto though can make adjustments and keep Game 2 a lot closer than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. Am I going to suggest to you to “sprinkle a little on the money line” as well? No I am not. Cleveland took Game 1, 116-105 on Monday. Last year the Cavs knocked off the Raptors in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals. If Toronto is going to “get over the hump,” it has to figure out a way to win in Cleveland. Kyle Lowry was a bright spot with 20 points and 11 assists. Clearly head coach Wayne Casey is going to have to make some adjustments. The Cavs came out with a lot of energy, but weren’t overly effecient in Game 1, shooting 45.9 percent from the floor, including 14 of 34 from range. LeBron James dominated with 35 points and ten boards. I’ll point out though that the Raptors have performed well in this spot for bettors, going 5-1 ATS in their last six following a straight up loss and 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU loss of more than ten points, while the Cavs are interestingly 0-4 ATS in their last four when playing on one days rest. Toronto has an infamous reputation now in dropping Game 1 of its recent playoff series the last few years as Monday’s setback made it ten straight Game 1 losses in a row. The Raptors bounced back against the Bucks in Game 2 in their opening series and as I stated off the top, I think they’ll be much more competitive tonight as well. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-02-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -5 | Top | 119-129 | Win | 100 | 34 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Boston Celtics (8:00 EST). I played the Celtics in Game 1 and after a slow start, Boston would put the foot on the gas and pull away for the eventual 123-111 victory. I think the C’s come out much more prepared from the start tonight though and look for them to once again find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Washington is crushed, it had a 22-5 lead at one point in the first quarter, but things went South quickly after that. The Wizards struggled with the inside-outside game of the Celtics and the dynamic guard duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal were effectively “shut down” by Boston’s Isaiah Thomas and company. The Celtics shot a blistering 51.1 percent from the floor and hit 19 of 39 from range. Thomas was a standout with 33 points and nine assists. And I’ll point out that Washington is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning percentage above. 600, while the Celtics are 4-0 ATS In their last four following an ATS/SU victory. “Momentum” is a very real, almost tangible factor in the playoffs and it’s one which I believe the books often have a hard time properly quantifying into a line. And that’s the case here I think. The Wizards’ suspect defense comes back to haunt them again in Game 2, play on Boston. Good luck…Larry |
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05-01-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -5.5 | 126-99 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 14 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:35 EST). The home side has to be feeling pretty confident here as it took three of the four regular season meetings from the Rockets this year. Houston outmatched OKC in its 4-1 series victory over Oklahoma City, however San Antonio clearly presents a much bigger challenge. The Spurs are loaded with talent from top to bottom and can hurt you on the inside and outside. San Antonio has experience, from head coach Greg Popovich, to Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Spurs also have an MVP candidate to rival the Rockets’ James Harden in Kawhi Leonard, who is a much better two-way player than Harden. In fact, Leonard has been defensive player of the year, so there is no comparison whatsoever in that regards. And in the postseason, playing defense does help of course. San Antonio had a top 3 defense in the regular season and I think it will prove to be a difference maker here today as well. The Spurs have the talent to slow down Harden and have the muscle down low to have their way on the glass and offensive end. I’ll point out that Housont is just 2-8 ATS In its last ten following an ATS loss, while San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in its last eight when playing on three or more days rest. I’m expecting a rout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-01-17 | Raptors +7 v. Cavs | 105-116 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 45 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:05 EST). Toronto will look to steal Game 1 of this Eastern Conference semi-finals against rival Cleveland. The Cavs took three of four in the regular season series. This is a big time revenge scenario for the Raptors, who lost the Eastern Conference Finals 4-2 to the Cavs just last year. Toronto had a top five offense in the regular season, but the series against the Bucks was a slower-paced one. The Raptors averaged only 93.8 PPG over the six game series win, but they conceded just 93.2. DeMar DeRozan led the way with 23.5 points and 5.5 boards per game. Big man Serge Ibaka put up 12.8 points, 8.3 boards and 2.33 blocks per game and is expected to be a difference maker in this series as well. Cleveland averaged 112.8 PPG against Indiana in its four game opening series sweep, while allowing 108.8 in the process. LeBron James was a standout with 32.8 points, 9.8 boards, nine assits, three steals and two blocks per game average. I’ll point out though that Toronto is 4-0 ATS in its last four against a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home and 0-2-2 ATS in its last four home games against a team with a winning road record. Cleveland’s four-game series victory came by a combined total of 16 points over Indiana, with six being the largest margin of victory. James looked fantastic, but Kevin Love struggled in Game’s 3 and 4 and the bench has also stumbled with production. I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, but in the end I’m going to grab the points. Toronto needs to make a statement and there’s no better moment than right now. Good luck…Larry |
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04-30-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Boston Celtics (1:05 EST). Washington advanced to the second round by knocking off Atlanta in six games, including a 115-99 road win in Game 6. Boston also won its opening round series with the Bulls 4-2, including a 105-83 victory in Game 6 on the road. These teams split four meetings in the regular season. John Wall and Bradley Beal had their way for the most part with the Hawks, with Wall going for 42 points and eight assists in the Game 6 victory. But now the team faces a much stiffer test in my opinion, as I think the Celtics match up much better against Wall and Beal. The Wizards have been poor on the defensive end, conceding 105.5 PPG in the playoffs. The Celtics have been conceding just 96.5 in the postseason. Isaiah Thomas has gotten progressively better with each game since Game 3 (was blindsided by the death of his sister just before the series started) and so too has everyone around him, including Jae Crowder (12 points, 5.3 boards in the playoffs), Avery Bradley (16 points, four bouards, three assists) and Al Horford (15.3 points, 8.3 boards and 6.5 assists). I’ll point out though that the Wizards are just 1-4 ATS in thier last five road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, whil Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. The Wizards looked great at home in their opening series, but struggled on the road, going 3-0 at the Verizon Venter and just 1-2 away from friendly confines. The C’s dropped those first two games at home to the Bulls, but that was under extraordinary conditions, a factor that no one could have anticipated. Since then though, Boston has fully recovered and note that it did go 30-11 at home in the regular season, while the Wizards were just 19-22 on the road. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-27-17 | Spurs -4 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:35 EST). The best player in this series has been Kawhi Leonard for the Spurs, so far he’s averaged 31 points per game on 57 percent shooting. I’m expecting the best player in this series to lead his team to a convincing series clinching victory on the road tonight. San Antonio steam rolled its way to two big wins at home, but then the Grizzlies responded in kind on their home floor in Game’s 3 and 4. The Spurs once again defended their home court in Game 5 with a resounding 116-103 victory. So far home court has played a big part in this series, but I think that trend ends this evening. The Spurs are shooting a combined 48.3 percent from the floor, as Memphis’ normally stout defense has started to show signs of fatigue. Experience, depth and leadership (Popovich) all count at this point of a series. I’ll point out that San Antonio is 10-4 ATS this year after scoring 115 points or more, while Memphis is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following a loss by ten points or more. The Grizzlies put up a much bigger fight than expected, but all signs point to a Spurs blowout. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-26-17 | Bulls v. Celtics -8 | Top | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Celtics (8:30 EST). I’ve successfully played on and against each of these teams so far in this series. So far in this series, home floor has not been an advantage, with Chicago taking Game’s 1 and 2 and the Celtics returning the favor in Game’s 3 and 4. Isaiah Thomas was blind-sided by the death of his sister just before the series started, so it was a great situation to take advantage of in the first two games. But as the series wore on, Thomas was able to adjust and cope and clearly he looked a lot better on the road. I think Thomas though continues his dominant play and has his best game of the playoffs thus far. Chicago got big production from Rajon Rondo in the first two games, but he injured his wrist and missed the next two. He’s also been ruled out for Game 5. Clearly it’s a big blow for the chemistry of the Bulls’ offense. Thomas had 33 points in Sunday’s 104-95 victory: “I just try to play the same way no matter who’s out there on the floor (defensively),” Thomas said. “I have a job to do, and that’s to score the basketball, make plays for others and be the leader.” I’ll point out that Chicago is already just 5-10 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Boston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after holding an opponent to 96 points or less. Look for Boston to continue its surge and lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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04-26-17 | Hawks v. Wizards -5.5 | 99-103 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizrds (6:00 EST). As I mentioned in my writeup on the “under” in the same game, this contest clearly means a lot to both teams. So far each team has dominated on its home floor, with Washington winning 114-107 and 109-101 and Atlanta prevailing 116-98 and 111-101. I think the home floor advantage trend continues in Game 5. The Hawks are averaging 108.8 PPG in the playoffs, which is over six points higher than their regular season average. Atlanta though is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home. Washington was one of the best shooting teams in the regular season and now that the series is back at the Verizon Center, I think the Wizards will rebound. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-24-17 | Warriors -6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 128-103 | Win | 100 | 36 h 49 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Golden State Warriors (10:30 EST). Head coach Steve Kerr won’t be on the sidelines, but with a chance to end the series tonight, I look for the high-powered Warriors to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Portland is in a 3-0 hole and I think it’ll fold up its tents early in this one. Golden State averages 115.9 PPG this year, while the defense concedes only 104.3. Portland averages 107.9 PPG, but allows 108.5. Golden State is just too deep, too skilled defensively and too experienced overall for Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum to overcome themselves. I’ll point out that Golden State is 6-0 ATS in its last six away from friendly confines and 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 after scoring 100 points or more in its previous contest, while Portland is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 in this series in front of the home town crowd. Portland’s only hope was Game 3. Look for the Golden State to deliver the knock out blow, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-24-17 | Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks | 101-111 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 14 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizards (8:00 EST). Washington took the first two games at home, but stumbled in Game 3’s 116-98 setback in Atlanta on Saturday. Suffice it to say, I like the Wizards to bounce back here and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. John Wall was a standout in the loss for Washington, finishing with 29 points and seven assists. Washington has to be feeling confident, it shot 37 percent from range in the regular season and averaged 109.2 PPG, ranked fifth overall. The defense was the weak point, but the Hawks only average 103.2 PPG, ranked 22nd overall. This is a spot in which the Wizards have excelled in all year as well, going 5-1 ATS in their last six following a straight up loss of ten points or more, while note that the Hawks have struggled in this position by going a poor 1-8 ATS in their last nine following a straight up victory over ten or more points. Wall’s teammate Bradley Beal had an “off” night in Game 3, but it’s hard to imagine the talented guard being held down twice. I have a hard time seeing Atlanta duplicating its 49 percent shooting performance as well. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-23-17 | Clippers +2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Clippers (9:00 EST). Blake Griffin is out, but I think the Clippers are still the deeper, more skilled, more experienced and better coached team. Griffin was out in Game 2, but veteran point guard Chris Paul took over, leading a 15-0 fourth quarter run, en route to the 114-106 Game 3 victory: “He has an amazing will,” Clippers’ head coach Doc Rivers assessed afterwards. “He’s just a tough guy. He’s stubborn in a very, very positive way. All the great ones have that in them. They’re stubborn like they aren’t going to lose.” Paul went on to finish with 34 points, ten assists and seven boards, while DeAndre Jordan added 17. Gordon Hayward was once again the focal point for Utah, he’d play 42 minutes and pour in 40 points. George Hill also showed up with 26 points. Of course, big man Rudy Gobert missed Game 3 and is listed as doubtful for Game 4 as well. For arguments sake, lets call Gobert and Griffin a “wash.” When looking at the remaining pieces, in my professional opinion, LA has still has several advantages. And I’ll point out that the Clippers are 3-1 ATS in thier last four after scoring 113 points or more, whle Utah is just 16-20 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. Grab as many points as you can, play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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04-21-17 | Clippers +1 v. Jazz | Top | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 60 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* 33-Club Play is on the LA Clippers (10:00 EST). These teams are 1-1 so far in this series and depending on when/where you played it, they’re also 1-1 ATS. Utah stole Game 1 97-95, while LA bounced back with a 99-91 win in Game 2. LA held an 18-0 advantage with points in the paint in the first quarter and used that strategy throughout the game, as Utah struggled with the loss of big man Rudy Gobert. The Clippers shot 52.4 percent from the floor and held a 39-33 edge on the boards. Blake Griffin had 24 points, while Chris Paul added 21 points and ten boards. Gobert has once again been ruled out for Game 3. The Jazz managed go go 17 of 22 from the free throw line in Game 2, the only factor that kept the game as close as it was. Gordon Hayward was a lone bright spot with 20 points in the setback. I’ll point out that LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing on two days rest, while Utah is only 1-3 ATS in its last four in the same position. I think the extended absence of Gobert comes back to haunt the Jazz again tonight, play on the Clippers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-20-17 | Spurs -3 v. Grizzlies | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 26 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:30 EST). The Grizzlies showed some life in Game 1, but were clobbered in Game 2, 96-82. San Antonio’s depth is once again proving to be just too much for Memphis to handle and I believe nothing will change in Game 3. The Spurs have to be feeling pretty confident as they’ve now won 16 of the last 20 in this series. Keep your eyes on San Antonio star Kawhi Leonard, who had a career playoff-high 37 points in the Game 2 win. Veteran point guard Tony Parker contributed 15 points as well. Mike Conley was a standout for the Grizzlies in Game 2, finishing with 24 points. Tony Allen missed Monday’s game with a calf issue and is questionable for tonight as well (note that he’s averaging just 9.1 PPG this year). I think a 4-0 sweep is very possible in this series. I believe the Spurs win big again in Game 3, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-20-17 | Raptors +1.5 v. Bucks | 77-104 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 46 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (8:00 EST). These teams are tied at one game a piece as their Eastern Conference series shifts to Milwaukee. Toronto though is 0-2 ATS at this point. Suffice it to say, I think the road will work well for the Raptors, who can escape the media frenzy North of the border and concentrate completely on themselves. The Bucks have put up a hell of a fight to this point, but I think the Raptors’ depth will prove to be the difference maker. In Game 3 anyways. Toronto averages 106.9 PPG and concedes 102.6. Milwaukee averages 103.6 PPG and concedes 103.8. And I’ll point out that the Raptors are 6-1 ATS in thier last seven on the road and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a winning home record, while the Bucks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and a horrible 1-7 ATS in their last eight after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Experience at this time of the year is invaluable. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry both looked a lot better in Game 2 and I believe that momentum gets carried over here. Play on Toronto. Good luck…larry |
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04-20-17 | Cavs -2 v. Pacers | 119-114 | Win | 100 | 33 h 32 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (7:00 EST). I’ve bet against the Cavaliers in each of the first two games of this Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Cleveland is 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS. With a chance to take a strangle-hold on this series, I’m expecting Cleveland to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and look for it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover. The Pacers are wearing down and they had no answers for the Cavs in Game 2 as Cleveland would go on to shoot a sizzling 55.3 percent from the floor. The Cavs will be looking for a better defensive performance themselves after allowing the Pacers to hit 51.2 percent. Keep your eyes on guard Kyrie Irving, who appears to be heating up at the most opportune of times, he had 37 points on 14 of 24 shooting in Game 2. Also note that Kevin Love, LeBron James and Tristan Thompson combined for 31 rebounds. Paul George continues to carry the Pacers and he did his best last time out, finishing with 32 points, eight boards and seven assists. I’ll point out though that Cleveland is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 when leading in a playoff series, while Indiana is interestingly just 14-18 ATS this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106 points per contest. I think the Cavs fight hard on the road and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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04-19-17 | Blazers +15.5 v. Warriors | Top | 81-110 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is is on the Portland Trailblazers (10:30 EST). Portland got 41 points from CJ McCollum and 34 from Damian Lillard, but it still wasn’t enough in the 121-109 Game 1 loss to the Warriors. I’m not going to predict an outright upset here or anything, but I do think that the Blazers can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Game 1 was actually tied entering the fourth quarter, but an early 9-2 run by the Warriors would spell the end for Portland’s chances. It wasn’t a perfect game for Golden State by any sense though, as the Warriors did go on to concede 19 points off 16 turnovers. And I’ll point out that Portland is 8-1 ATS in its last nine after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game and 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss, while Golden State is 4-12-2 ATS in its last 18 when playing on two days rest. I think Golden State takes the foot off the gas tonight and I expect the desperate visitors to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Play on Portland. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -8 | Top | 91-99 | Push | 0 | 36 h 28 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Clippers (10:30 EST). I had a play on the Jazz in Game 1. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the Clippers to risk life and limb in Game 2 to secure a victory and expect the Jazz to fold up their tents early and be completely content with the split before heading home. Utah played great defensively and got a buzzer beating 3-pointer from Joe Johnson to seal the 97-95 victory in Game 1. The Jazz were the No. 1 defensive team in the league in conceding only 96.8 PPG, but they were ranked 28th overall on the offensive end in averaging 100.7. This is do-or-die essentially for the Clippers, as an 0-2 hole heading back to Utah would likely be too big of a climb to get out of. LA has to be feeling confident though, it averaged 108.7 PPG and conceded 104.4 in the regular season. I’ll point out that Utah is just 4-6 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and only 7-10 ATS after three or more consecutive SU victories, while LA is 7-5 ATS this season in revenging a home loss against an opponent and 6-4 ATS in its last ten against good defensive clubs with allow only 98 plus points per contest. Jazz center Rudy Gobert was injured in the first few minutes of Game 1 and basically didn’t even play and somehow Utah still managed the dominant victory. Gobert is listed as doubtful this evening as well. I think this will have an impact on the visitors. For all the reasons listed above, I’m laying the points and expecting a blowout. Good luck…Larry |
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Larry Ness NBA Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-10-18 | Heat +4.5 v. Pacers | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
01-10-18 | Mavs +6.5 v. Hornets | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
01-09-18 | Kings v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 86-99 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
01-07-18 | Thunder v. Suns +8.5 | Top | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
01-06-18 | Nuggets v. Kings +4 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
01-05-18 | Raptors v. Bucks +1.5 | 129-110 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 7 m | Show | |
01-05-18 | Wolves +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 84-91 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
01-02-18 | Spurs v. Knicks +4 | Top | 100-91 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
01-01-18 | Magic +4 v. Nets | Top | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Lakers +14.5 v. Rockets | Top | 142-148 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
12-30-17 | 76ers +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
12-29-17 | Clippers v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 121-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
12-28-17 | Wolves +2.5 v. Bucks | Top | 96-102 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
12-27-17 | Wizards v. Hawks +5.5 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
12-26-17 | Raptors v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
12-25-17 | Wolves -3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 121-104 | Win | 100 | 52 h 50 m | Show |
12-25-17 | Rockets v. Thunder +4 | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 49 h 20 m | Show | |
12-25-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -5 | 111-103 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 50 m | Show | |
12-23-17 | 76ers +10.5 v. Raptors | Top | 86-102 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
12-21-17 | Celtics v. Knicks +4 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
12-20-17 | Wolves +2.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
12-18-17 | Jazz +12 v. Rockets | Top | 99-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
12-17-17 | Cavs v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
12-14-17 | Kings v. Wolves -10.5 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
12-12-17 | 76ers +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
12-11-17 | Raptors v. Clippers +6 | Top | 91-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
12-09-17 | Magic v. Hawks -2 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
12-03-17 | Clippers v. Wolves -12.5 | Top | 106-112 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
12-02-17 | Kings v. Bucks -11.5 | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
12-01-17 | Wolves v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 107-111 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
11-29-17 | Grizzlies +7 v. Spurs | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
11-28-17 | Bucks -7 v. Kings | Top | 112-87 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
11-27-17 | Lakers +6 v. Clippers | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show | |
11-26-17 | Heat v. Bulls +6.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
11-25-17 | Knicks v. Rockets -13 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 28 h 0 m | Show |
11-24-17 | Knicks v. Hawks +2 | Top | 104-116 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
11-22-17 | Clippers v. Hawks +3 | Top | 116-103 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
11-20-17 | Hawks +9.5 v. Spurs | 85-96 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 54 m | Show | |
11-19-17 | Nuggets v. Lakers +5 | Top | 109-127 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
11-18-17 | Celtics v. Hawks +6.5 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
11-17-17 | Heat +4.5 v. Wizards | Top | 91-88 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
11-16-17 | Warriors -7 v. Celtics | Top | 88-92 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
11-14-17 | Spurs -6 v. Mavs | Top | 97-91 | Push | 0 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
11-12-17 | Rockets v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 118-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
11-11-17 | Kings +5 v. Knicks | Top | 91-118 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
11-10-17 | Bucks +4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 94-87 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
11-07-17 | 76ers v. Jazz -7 | 104-97 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
11-06-17 | Celtics v. Hawks +8.5 | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
11-05-17 | Thunder v. Blazers +3 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
11-04-17 | Mavs v. Wolves -13 | Top | 99-112 | Push | 0 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
11-03-17 | Nets +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 112-124 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
11-03-17 | Bulls v. Magic -8 | 105-83 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
11-02-17 | Lakers v. Blazers -7 | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
11-01-17 | Hawks +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
10-31-17 | Suns v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
10-28-17 | Rockets v. Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 89-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
10-26-17 | Hawks +2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 86-91 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
10-25-17 | Wizards -7 v. Lakers | Top | 99-102 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
10-25-17 | Pacers v. Thunder -13 | 96-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
10-25-17 | Cavs -6.5 v. Nets | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
10-24-17 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Blazers | 93-103 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
10-21-17 | Mavs v. Rockets -12 | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
10-21-17 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +7.5 | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
10-21-17 | 76ers v. Raptors -9 | 94-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
10-20-17 | Jazz v. Wolves -4.5 | 97-100 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 46 m | Show | |
10-18-17 | Blazers v. Suns | Top | 124-76 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
10-18-17 | Wolves +2.5 v. Spurs | 99-107 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 7 m | Show | |
10-18-17 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 30 h 8 m | Show | |
10-17-17 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 122-121 | Win | 100 | 76 h 55 m | Show |
06-12-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 120-129 | Push | 0 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +3 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -105 | 59 h 45 m | Show |
06-04-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 113-132 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
06-01-17 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -110 | 158 h 1 m | Show |
05-22-17 | Warriors v. Spurs +11.5 | Top | 129-115 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
05-21-17 | Celtics +14.5 v. Cavs | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 59 h 4 m | Show |
05-14-17 | Spurs +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 58 h 6 m | Show |
05-10-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -107 | 58 h 2 m | Show |
05-08-17 | Warriors -8 v. Jazz | Top | 121-95 | Win | 100 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show |
05-07-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 57 h 8 m | Show |
05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +2 | 115-94 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 21 m | Show | |
05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
05-03-17 | Raptors +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 47 m | Show |
05-02-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -5 | Top | 119-129 | Win | 100 | 34 h 60 m | Show |
05-01-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -5.5 | 126-99 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 14 m | Show | |
05-01-17 | Raptors +7 v. Cavs | 105-116 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 45 m | Show | |
04-30-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
04-27-17 | Spurs -4 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
04-26-17 | Bulls v. Celtics -8 | Top | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
04-26-17 | Hawks v. Wizards -5.5 | 99-103 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
04-24-17 | Warriors -6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 128-103 | Win | 100 | 36 h 49 m | Show |
04-24-17 | Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks | 101-111 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 14 m | Show | |
04-23-17 | Clippers +2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 39 m | Show |
04-21-17 | Clippers +1 v. Jazz | Top | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 60 h 36 m | Show |
04-20-17 | Spurs -3 v. Grizzlies | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 26 m | Show |
04-20-17 | Raptors +1.5 v. Bucks | 77-104 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 46 m | Show | |
04-20-17 | Cavs -2 v. Pacers | 119-114 | Win | 100 | 33 h 32 m | Show | |
04-19-17 | Blazers +15.5 v. Warriors | Top | 81-110 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 44 m | Show |
04-18-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -8 | Top | 91-99 | Push | 0 | 36 h 28 m | Show |