Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-18-17 | Bulls +6 v. Celtics | 111-97 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Bulls (8:00 EST). I played Chicago in Game 1 and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and keep it competitive until the final moments. I based my Game 1 selection primarily on the issues that Celtics star’ Isaiah Thomas was dealing with as the night before Game 1 his sister was killed in a car crash. Thomas is expected to play again tonight, but I still think that he’ll struggle to keep his head in the game. Boston is a deep team, but without a 100% focused Thomas, it’s going to be very difficult for it to succeed. Besides, the Bulls looked pretty dominant in Game 1, including winning the rebounding battle 53-36, with 20 of those boards coming on the offensive glass. Chicago also was 20 of 23 from the charity stripe, while limiting the C’s to just 43 percent from the floor overall. Chicago won’t be rolling over here obviously. All signs point to a nail-biter, so grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -10.5 | Top | 82-96 | Win | 100 | 35 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:30 EST). I played on San Antonio in Game 1 and I think it will once again lay the hammer down in Game 2. Home court is going to be important in this series I think from an “Against The Spread” angle anyways. Memphis got off to a good opening quarter in Game 1, but the Spurs were able to reign in the Grizzlies and then pull away before the half. Memphis shot just 39 percent from the floor, including only 7 of 20 from range. Marc Gasol was a standout with 32 points on 11 of 18 shooting. Memphis averages only 100.5 PPG, but makes up for it on the defensive end in conceding only 100.5 That vaunted defense looked pretty mediocre against the Spurs though, who would go on to shoot a blistering 53 percent from the floor. Kawhi Leonard led the charge for San Antonio with 31 points. Leonard played smothering defense all season and the Spurs would go on to allow just 98.1 PPG. I’ll point out that Memphis is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while the Spurs are 2-1 ATS in their last three following an ATS victory. I think the Grizzlies have no answer for the Spurs on either end of the court and while I do believe Memphis will look a lot better on its home floor, all signs point to another blowout this evening. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-17 | Pacers +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 32 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Indiana Pacers (7:00 EST). I played Indiana in Game 1 and I think the Pacers can once again take Game 2 down to the wire. Indiana managed to cut the lead to just one in the waning moments of Game 1, but a missed CJ Miles shot at the buzzer sealed the 109-108 home win for the Cavs. Paul George led the way for Indiana with 29 points, five boards and seven assists, while Lance Stephenson chipped in 16 off the bench. The Cavs backed their way into the playoffs, losing four straight and were lucky that Miles missed the shot and that George wasn’t taking it. LeBron James was a standout with 32 points, six boards, 13 assists and three steals. I’ll point out though that Indiana has performed extremely well in this spot for bettors all year, going 4-0 ATS in its last four after allowing 100 points or more and 6-0 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory, while Cleveland is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six when playing on one days rest. Indiana won’t be rolling over. In fact, this is pretty much do-or-die for the Pacers, as an 0-2 hole would likely be just too much for the team to recover from. While I won’t be so bold as to predict the outright upset, I do think that the hungry visitors can at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Play on the Pacers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-17 | Thunder v. Rockets -7 | Top | 87-118 | Win | 100 | 78 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Houston Rockets (9:00 EST). The 47-35 OKC Thunder are in Houston to take on the 55-27 Rockets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. This one features the two leading candidates for MVP in James Harden and Russell Westbrook. Westbrook is probably the better oveall player, but I think that Harden has the better overall team. The Rockets also have home court advantage and I think that will be a crucial deciding factor once it’s all said and done this evening. Houston has to be feeling pretty confident as well as it took three of the four regular season meetings. OKC averages 106.6 PPG and concedes 105.8. Houston averages 115.3 PPG and concedes 109.3. From a trend based stand point, this one heavily favors the home side, as note that OKC is just 12-19 ATS this year against good offensive clubs which average 106 plus points per contest and only 19-22 ATS on the road overall, while Houston is 18-11 ATS after allowing 115 points or more and 3-1 ATS when playing with three or more days rest. I think home court advantage will be important in this series and look for the Rockets to set the early tone. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-17 | Bulls +8 v. Celtics | Top | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 76 h 39 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Bulls (6:30 EST). The 41-41 Chicago Bulls are in Boston to take on the 53-29 Celtics and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, because for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the visitors. This is strictly a “situational” play. Isaiah Thomas is the heart and soul of the C’s. Thomas’ sister was tragically killed in a car accident early Saturday and he may not even play in this game. If he does, clearly his head won’t be in it. Boston is a deep team, but without their floor general completely focused, I think it is going to struggle tonight. I’ll point out as well that Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven when playing with three or more days rest, while Boston is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven at home and only 1-5 ATS in its last six home games against a team with a losing road record. These teams split four games this year, and three of those four were decided by seven points or less. I think Chicago does in fact have a shot at a victory today, but as mentioned off the top, I’m grabbing the points in the end. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-17 | Hawks v. Wizards -5 | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 70 h 20 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washignton Wizards (1:00 EST). The 43-39 Altanta Hawks are in Washington to take on the 49-33 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Atlanta had won four straight before dropping its regular season finale104-86 at Indiana on Wednesday. The Wizards lost five of the final eight, including a 110-102 road defeat to Miami on Wednesday. If histoy is any precedence though then Washington has to be liking its chances as it would go on to take three of four in the regular season series, including a 104-100 home win in the most recent on March 22nd. Atlanta averages only 103.2 PPG, whil conceding 104. Washington averages 109.2 PPG and concedes 107.4 I’ll point out though that Atlanta is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 following a straight up loss, while Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last six conference quarterfinals games. The Wizards “struggled” down the stretch, but the team had nothing to play for, locked into its position for a while now. Washington domianted this series in the regular season and I expect that to continue in the Playoffs. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-17 | Jazz +6 v. Clippers | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 56 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* 33-Club Play is on the Utah Jazz (10:30 EST). The 51-31 Utah Jazz are in LA to take on the 51-31 Clippers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Clippers took the tie-breaker by winning three of four in the season series. Utah though won its last game over the Spurs on Wednesday. Utah hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2012 and will clearly be leaving everything on the floor tonight as it looks to score the upset and gain the early upperhand. The pressure is clearly on LA this year. It comes in having won seven straight, but I think this sets up as a classic trap/letdown spot for the home side. As note that Utah is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while LA is just 15-16 ATS after a win by ten points or more and only 9-15 ATS after scoring 115 points or more. While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for a nail-biter. In a contest which I believe will be decided in the closing moments, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -9 | Top | 82-111 | Win | 100 | 53 h 22 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:00 EST). The 43-39 Memphis Grizzlies are in San Antonio to take on the 61-21 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. If recent history is any precedence, then the Spurs have to be loving their chances today as they swept the Grizzlies in the first round last year. Memphis averaged just 100.5 PPG, but made up for it on the defensive end in conceding just 100. The Spurs averaged 105.3 PPG and conceded just 98.1. I’ll point out though that Memphis has struggled in this spot for bettors this year, going just 1-11 ATS when playing with two days rest, while the Spurs are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 in the first round of the playoffs. Memphis was consistently inconsistent this year, while San Antonio remained in the Top 3 in the league the entire way. Experience and coaching counts in these situations. Lay the points, play on the Spurs. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -6.5 | 97-83 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 47 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (5:30 EST). The 42-40 Milwaukee Bucks are in Toronto to take on the 51-31 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Bucks backed their way into the playoffs, dropping four of six, falling 112-94 at Boston on Wednesday. The Raptors trended the other way to finish the season with four straight victories, most recently an impressive 98-83 win on the road in Cleveland on Wednesday. Toronto has to be feeling pretty confident here, as it’s won 13 of the last 15 in the series, including a 101-94 home win in the latest on March 4th. The Bucks averaged just 103.6 PPG (ranked 20th), while ranked ninth defensively in conceding 103.8. Toronto averaged 106.9 PPG (ranked 10th), while conceding just 102.6. I’ll point out that Milwaukee is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against a team with a winning SU record, while Toronto is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 when playing on two days rest. Milwaukee’s struggles cost it a matchup against the Wizards, which would be preferable than having to travel North of the border. The Raptors have momentum and coupled with their recent playoff experience, suffice it to say I’m expecting a complete blowout in Game 1. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-17 | Pacers +9 v. Cavs | 108-109 | Win | 100 | 48 h 12 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Indiana Pacers (3:00 EST). The 42-40 Indiana Pacers are in Cleveland to take on the 51-31 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog. Now that the playoffs are here, are the Cavs just going to “flip-a-switch?!” That’s what the all the talking heads out there will lead you to believe. Does this one mean more to Cleveland that it does to Indiana? The answer to that one is clearly a resounding “no.” Indiana clinched a spot with a 104-86 win over the Hawks on Wednesday, while the Cavs backed their way into the postsesaon, losing four straight to end the year. This is a revenge game for Indiana, as it lost three of four in the season series, including a 135-130 doulbe OT thriller on April 2nd. The Pacers average 105.1 points per night and concede 105.3. The Cavs average 110.3 PPG and concede 107.2 What’s with this 9-point (give or take upon the closing line) spread? I’ll point out that Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while Cleveland is just 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home. Until Cleveland can prove to me that it’s turned the corner, I’m going against the Cavs to open the playoffs. Too many points, play on Indiana. Good luck…Larry |
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04-12-17 | Mavs v. Grizzlies -6 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:00 EST). It’s the final day of the regular season, so many of the techniques that handicappers have used for the regular season just don’t pertain in this situation. This is a great situational play in my opinion, as the Mavs come in off a game just last night against the Nuggets and will now look to put the final nail in the coffin in another disappointing season. The Grizzlies on the other hand would love to have a win before the postseason as they’ve stumbled of late, losing four of their last five, most recently a 103-90 setback to Detroit on Sunday. I’ll point out that Dallas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four in the second game of a back-to-back, while Memphis is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 90 points or less. I like the Grizzlies to push the pace and end the season on a high note in front of the home town crowd, while I also expect the visitors to simply go through the motions in this one. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-10-17 | Wizards -2.5 v. Pistons | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Washington Wizards (8:00 EST). The 48-32 Washington Wizards are in Detroit to take on the 36-43 Pistons and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Wizards lost for a fourth time in their last six games with a 106-103 setback to the Heat on Saturday night, dropping the team back into fourth place in the East. Washington remains fifth in the league in scoring with 109.3 per contest, while ranked 21st in conceding 107.4. John Wall leads the team with 23.1 points, 10.7 assists and 2.01 steals per game. The Pistons average 101.2 PPG and concede 102.4. Tobias Harris leads all players with 16.2 points, plus 5.1 boards per game. I’ll point out that Washington is 23-13 ATS this season in trying ot revenge a loss against an opponent, while Detroit is just 15-22 ATS as an underdog. The Pistons have nothing to play for right now except the role of spoiler. There’s nothing to spoil for Washington though, which has already punched its ticket to the posteason. Detroit looked bad against Memphis last time out and I don’t think it’ll put up much of a fight here either. The Wizards are cold at the worst possible time, but have a big opportunity here to get untracked and gain some momentum as they head into the playoffs. Lay the points, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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04-09-17 | Cavs -1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (3:35 EST). I played on Cleveland in its big win over the Celtics earlier in the week, a victory which would give the Cavs the No. 1 spot in the East at the time. A favorable matchup the following night against an Atlanta Hawks team which would be without most of its starting players looked like a perfect opportunity to keep the momentum rolling, but the home side would come out flat and inexplicably fell 114-100 on Friday. Suffice it to say, I think it’s payback time today as note that ATL has in fact taken two of three in the season series from the Cavs already. The Cavs are still fighting for the No. 1 seed in the East. They average 110.4 PPG and concede 106.8. LeBron James had 27 points, eight boards and seven assists in the setback on Friday. The Hawks average 103.1 PPG and concede 104.1. Note that ATL hits just 34.2 percent from range, ranked 24th overall. Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson are both doubtful for this one, but I don’t think it’s going to matter. The Hawks are also dealing with injury issues. I believe Cleveland feels embarrassed by its performance last time out and I look for it to make amends with a decisive effort this evening. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-08-17 | Heat v. Wizards -6 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Washington Wizards (7:05 EST). The 38-41 Miami Heat are in the nation’s capital to take on the 48-31 WIzards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Heat’s playoff hopes are fading quickly after falling 96-94 in Toronto just last night. The Wizards are trending in the opposite direction, as they’ve won two straight after edging by the Knicks 106-103 on the road Thursday. This is a double revenge scenario, as Miami has taken the first two meetings this year, including a 112-101 home victory in the last matchup back on December 12th. It was an amazing run for the Heat after the All Star break, but they’ve now run out of gas. Miami has lost three of its last four. The Heat are a poor offensive team, averaging 102.9 PPG. Miami makes up for it on the defensive end though by conceding just 101.9. The Wizards are a good offensive team, averaging 109.4. Washington is poor defensively though in conceding 107.4 per night. But the situational and motivational factors are clearly working in favor of the home side in this one. Washington now looks to close the season strong, to avenge the two earlier losses and to take advantage of what will clearly be a very tired Heat side. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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04-06-17 | Wolves v. Blazers -6 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Portland Trailblazers (10:30 EST). The 31-46 Minnesota Timberwolves are in Portland to take on the 38-40 Blazers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. With just four games to go, Portland has a one-game lead over Denver for the eighth spot. The Blazers will be desperate to maintain that position obviously, but also to get back on track after a two-game slide, one of which came by one point at the hands of these very Timberwolves in Minnesota on Monday night. Suffice it to say, it’s payback time on Thursday! Minnesota has won three of its last five, but has nothing to play for other than spoiler now. And that can only provide so much motivation for so long before everyone just throws in the towel. This is what I envision happening this evening as Portland risks life and limb tonight to get off the schneid with a decent full four-quarter effort. And if history is any precedence, then the Blazers have to be loving their chances today as they’ve won 20 of the last 22 meetings at home against Minnesota: “We’re ready to go home and finish the season out strong and we know that we control what happens,” Portland’s star point guard Damian Lillard said last night. I’ll point out that the Wolves are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight on the road and just 1-6 ATS in their last seven when playing on one days rest, while the Trailblazers are 6-0 ATS in their last six when playing on one days rest and 4-0 ATS in their last four at home against clubs with losing road records. I think the Wolves check out of this one early and expect Portland to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-05-17 | Cavs +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 114-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:05 EST). The 49-27 Cavaliers are in Boston to take on the 50-27 Celtics and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. This is the biggest regular season game for both teams so far as first place is up for grabs in the Eastern Conference. Boston won its second straight and sixth in its last seven with a 110-94 victory over New York on Sunday, while Cleveland cruised to a 122-102 win over Orlando at home last night. The Cavs have taken two of three so far this year, but it was the C’s which won 103-99 at home in the latest on March 1st. Cleveland has now won three straight. It averages 110.3 PPG and concedes 107. LeBron James leads the nightly charge with 26.3 points, 8.5 boards and 8.7 assists per game. Note that the Cavs are second in the NBA in made threes with 13 triples a game. Boston averages 107.8 PPG and concedes 105.1. Isaiah Thomas averages 29.1 points and 5.9 assists per game. Boston is ranked fourth in three points with 11.9 per contest. I’ll point out though that Cleveland is 12-9 ATS this season following a win by ten points or more, while Boston is just 11-15 ATS this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest (also only 5-9 ATS following a win by ten points or more). For many, the Cavaliers playing the Warriors this year was the “biggest” regular season game. Perhaps the Warriors and Durant against the Thunder as well. However, this is the biggest game in terms of it actually meaning something for the postseason. That means that it’s “go” time for James and company. I look for the defending champs to put on a show tonight and at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-31-17 | Pacers +7 v. Raptors | Top | 100-111 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Indiana Pacers (7:05 EST). The 37-38 Indiana Pacers are in Toronto to take on the 45-30 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Pacers come in desperate here, they lost for the fourth time in five games in a 110-97 road defeat in Memphis on Wednesday. Toronto looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after it had its six game win streak snapped in a 110-106 home loss to Charlotte. Momentum is difficult to attain and once lost, it’s sometimes even more difficult to get back. Also note, to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as Toronto has taken three straight and eight of the last nine in the series, including a 116-91 victory at home in the first matchup of the year on March 19th. Indiana is in eighth spot in the East and will be desperate here as it looks to break the slide of poor play. Indiana averages 104.3 PPG and concedes 105.4. Paul George leads the nightly charge with 22.8 points plus 6.4 boards per game. The Raptors average 107.2 PPG and concede 103. DeMar DeRozan leads everyone with 27.2 points and 5.3 boards per contest. I’ll point out though that Indiana is 11-6 ATS this year following a loss by ten points or more, while Toronto is just 1-2 ATS in its last three off an upset loss as a favorite. I think the “hungrier” team is the way to go in this one and while I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on Indiana. Good luck…Larry |
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03-30-17 | Cavs -6 v. Bulls | Top | 93-99 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:05 EST). The 47-26 Cleveland Cavaliers are in Chicago to take on the 35-39 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. It’s going to be all hands on deck for the Cavs today, they’ve lost four of their last six, most recently a humbling 103-74 road loss in San Antonio on Monday. With two extra days off between games and after losing top spot in the East to the Celtics, I’m absolutely expecting LeBron James and company to lay the hammer down tonight though. Note as well that this is a quadruple revenge game for the Cavaliers, having lost each of the last four meetings with the Bulls. Chicago sits just a game behind Miami for the final spot in the East, but note that it’s just 8-10 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog and only 6-8 ATS following a divisional contest. Also note that the Cavs have excelled in this spot for bettors, going 4-1 ATS in their last five when playing with two days rest. This is Cleveland’s most important game so far this entire season and suffice it to say, I look for the defending champions to respond with a resounding performance. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-29-17 | Wizards v. Clippers -5 | Top | 124-133 | Win | 100 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* BAIL-OUT is on the LA Clippers (10:35 EST). The Washington Wizards are in LA to take on the 44-31 Clippers on Wednesday night and for a couple of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Note that Washington played just 24 hours previous against the Lakers and suffice it to say, I think it’s going to be “gassed” in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. And with tough games at Utah and at Golden State upcoming respectively, it’s certainly not too hard to imagine the Wizards also in some small way getting caught “looking ahead” to those very tough contests. The Clippers will be looking to take out their frustrations on someone after letting an 18-point fourth quarter lead go by the way side in a 98-97 setback at home to the Kings. LA currently sits 1.5 games behind Utah for the fourth seed, so it needs to start winning immediately if it has any hopes of securing home court advantage in the first round. Also note that this is a “revenge” game as well for LA after the Wizards won 117-110 in Washington on December 18th (note though that the Clippers have won eight straight at home in this series). With two whole days off to rest, prepare and re-focus, I love the home side to lay a severe beating from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-29-17 | Bucks v. Celtics -8 | Top | 103-100 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Boston Celtics (7:35 EST). The Milwaukee Bucks are in Boston to take on the 48-26 Celtics on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Milwaukee has a solid defense which ranks in the top 10 in the league, but it plays in Charlotte on Tuesday night and suffice it to say, I think it’s going to be “gassed” in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Boston has taken over top spot in the East and won’t want to give it up. The C’s have won four in a row and seven of their last eight. Boston is ranks eighth in scoring and 14th in points allowed. Isaiah Thomas averages 29.1 PPG and six assists per night for Boston. Note that the Celtics are 27-9 at home, while Milwaukee is a few games under .500 on the road. Also note that the Bucks are just 10-14 ATS in their last 24 in Boston, while the Celtics are 17-12 ATS against teams with winning records this year and interestingly, 10-4 ATS against Central division opponents. I think Milwaukee comes in flat-footed after the game last night and look for the Celtics to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-28-17 | Wizards v. Lakers +9 | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER SHOCKER is on the LA Lakers (10:35 EST). The 45-28 Washignton Wizards are in LA to take on the 21-52 Lakers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I’m not going to be so bold as to predict an outright upset here, but I do definitely believe that the home side will catch the Wizards “looking past” their lowly opponent today and keep this one a lot closer than what Vegas is leading us to believe. At the very least, Washington will have the No. 3 seed in the Eastern conference. Clearly the Wizards are the better team, both on paper and on the floor. However, with a game against the Clippers tomorrow night, followed by tough outings at Utah and Golden State respectively, the stage is set for a classic “trap” game this evening. LA has nothing to play for and will almost assuredly be the second worst team in the league behind the Nets. But with one of the few remaining home games to put on a show for the crowd, I think the young Lakers come to play. And I’ll point out that Washington is just 16-17 ATS on the road this season and only 9-15 ATS overall since the All Star break, while LA is 2-1 ATS this year after scoring 85 points or less and interestingly, 6-2 ATS against the Southeast division. Grab as many points as you can, play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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03-27-17 | Thunder v. Mavs +1 | Top | 92-91 | Push | 0 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Dallas Mavericks (8:30 EST). The 41-30 Oklahoma City Thunder are in Dallas to take on the 31-41 Dallas Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. OKC comes in off a loss in Houston yesterday afternoon and I think will be “gassed” here. Dallas will now look to take advantage and to get back into the winners circle after a 94-86 home loss to Toronto in its latest action. These teams have already split a pair of meetings this year, each earning the victory on its home floor. Suffice it to say, I expect that trend to carry on here. Dallas is 21-17 on its home floor and needs to start stringing some wins together immediately if it has any chance whatsoever at making it into the postseason. Desperation breeds motivation and note that the Mavericks are 3-1 ATS in their last four after scoring 86 points or less, while OKC is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the second game of a back-to-back. After yesterday’s high-scoring defeat, I think the Thunder come out flat here. The correct call in this one is on the home side, play on Dallas. Good luck…Larry |
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03-27-17 | Cavs v. Spurs -4 | 74-103 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:00 EST). San Antonio is in a dog fight with the Warriors for top spot in the West and now faces a daunting schedule with the suddenly underachieving defending champion Cavaliers coming to town tonight, followed with matchups at home against Golden State and then at Oklahoma City and then back home for Utah and Memphis. Cleveland has dropped six of its last ten, including three of its last four. After tonight’s tough road contest though, the Cavs have much more “winnable” contests against Eastern Conference cellar dwellers in Chicago, Philadelphia, Indiana and Orlando respectively. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up nicely for San Antonio as it looks to start this tough stretch off on the “right foot,” while Cleveland could very well be caught “looking ahead” to the “vanilla” stretch in its schedule. Also note that the Cavs are just 2-3 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent and only 8-13 ATS after allowing 115 points or more, while San Antonio is 18-6 ATS this season against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. Cleveland will be fine, but I think this one means a lot more to the red hot home side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-27-17 | Magic v. Raptors -9 | 112-131 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:30 EST). The 27-46 Orlando Magic are in Toronto to take on the 44-29 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Orlando comes in complacent here in my opinion, it’s out of the playoff race for a while, but is contented after winning for the third time in four games in Friday’s 115-87 home victory over Detroit. The Raptors are rolling, but can ill afford to take the foot off the gas after a previous rough stretch, they enter this one having won five straight, most recently a 94-86 win over Dallas on the road on Saturday. Note that this sets up as a “revenge” game as well for Toronto, which has dropped two of three in the season series with Orlando so far, including a 102-94 setback in in the most recent matchup on February 3rd. Despite the recent “up tick” in play, the Magic are still just 28th in the league in averaging 100.4 PPG, while ranked a sub-par 19th on the defensive end in conceding 106.3 per game. The Raptors average 106.9 PPG and concede 102.8. Keep your eyes on DeMar DeRozan, who leads the nightly charge with 27.1 points, plus 5.3 boards per game. I’ll point out that Orlando 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing on two days rest, while Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest. Toronto is just three games behind the Celtics with nine games to go. This is a very important contest for the Raptors, one which could be a difference maker in the next two weeks. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to come in focused on the task at hand and look for it to easily pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-25-17 | Knicks +15.5 v. Spurs | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER SHOCKER is on the New York Knicks (8:35 EST). The 27-45 New York Knicks are in San Antonio to take on the 55-16 Spurs and while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do think that the situation favors the visitors and look for them to keep this one a lot closer than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The Knicks come in under the radar here, they’ve lost four straight and seven of their last eight, most recently a 110-95 setback at Portland on Thursday. Conversely, the Spurs come in complacent after winning their third straight and fifth in their last seven by outlasting the Grizzlies 97-90 at home on Thursday. New York comes in averaging 105.1 PPG and is fourth in the NBA in rebounding with 45.5 boards per game. The Knicks are poor defensively though, conceding 108.7 per contest. San Antonio averages 106.3 PPG and concedes 98.4 Kawhi Leonard leads the way with 25.9 points, 5.9 boards and 1.84 steals per game. I’ll point out though that New York has excelled in this spot for bettors this year, going 7-3 ATS after three or more consecutive losses and 22-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record, while San Antonio is just 11-16 ATS this season after three or more consecutive victories and just 5-8 ATS following a divisional contest. Clearly this is a matchup of David vs. Goliath on paper, but not only do the trends support the Knicks in this situation, but so too does the overall “situation.” There’s no doubt that this sets up as a classic “trap” game for the Spurs, with games against the Cavaliers and Warriors on Sunday and Tuesday resepectively. I think the visitors do more than enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample spread they’ve been afforded as they catch the home side “looking ahead.” Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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03-24-17 | Kings +17.5 v. Warriors | Top | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Sacramento Kings (10:35 EST). Clearly the Warriors are the superior team, they come into this one having won five straight, including covering the spread in their last four as well. The last time Golden State faced Sacramento, it would smash the Kings 109-86 on February 15th. So am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle a little on the money-line” as well? Of course not. I simply feel that this sets up as a “trap” game for the Warriors, who will next face the Grizzlies, the Rockets and Spurs respectively. It’s not too hard to imagine the home side taking the foot off the gas a little bit tonight as it focuses on its much tougher upcoming schedule. The Kings have struggled with offensive consistency since making the DeMarcus Cousins trade, but note that they’ve excelled in this spot for bettors this season, going 8-5 ATS after allowing 115 points or more and 11-4 ATS after three or more consecutive losses. And it’s interesting to note that Golden State is just 3-7 ATS this season when playing with two days rest and only 10-16 ATS against poor defensive teams which allow 106 points per contest. For all the reason’s listed above, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-24-17 | Pelicans v. Rockets -7 | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Rockets (8:05 EST). The 30-41 New Orleans Pelicans are in Houston to take on the 49-22 Rockets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. New Orleans comes in off a 95-82 win over Memphis, while Houston nipped by Denver 125-124 in its latest action. James Harden had 39 points and 11 assists in the Rockets most recent win. DeMarcuas Cousins had 41 points and 17 boards in the Pelicans victory over the Grizzlies. I’ll point out though that New Orleans is just 6-8 ATS against the division this year and only 3-5 ATS after allowing 90 points or less, while Houston is 17-7 ATS after allowing 115 points or more and 24-11 ATS against teams with losing records. I think the Pelicans finally stumble as they hit the road and Houston pulls away for the comfortable ATS cover down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-24-17 | Cavs -3 v. Hornets | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (7:05 EST). The 46-24 Cleveland Cavaliers are in Charlotte to take on the 32-39 Hornets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. These teams have played twice this year and the Cavs have won both, most recently a 121-109 decision on December 31st. But Cleveland has lost two of its last three, while Charlotte comes in having won three straight. Suffice it to say, I think the Cavs are the much “hungrier” team today, especially the way LeBron James called out the rest of his team after the disturbing loss in Denver last time out. Newcomer Deron Williams was a stand out in that one with 19 points on 8-of-10 shooting. Charlotte comes in off a 109-102 win over the Magic on Wednesday, led by 19 points from Terrence Ross. I’ll point out though that Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five after scoring 100 points or more in its previous contest, while Charlotte is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 in front of the home town crowd. The Cavs have dominated this series this year and I don’t expect anything to change. Lay the points with confidence as James and company come in razor focused and lay the hammer down from start to finish. Good luck…Larry |
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03-22-17 | Knicks v. Jazz -10 | Top | 101-108 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 60 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Utah Jazz (10:30 EST). The 27-43 New York Knicks are in Utah to take on the 43-28 Jazz on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Knicks are now officially looking ahead to next season with nothing but pride to play for the rest of the way. The Jazz on the other hand are trying to hold on to fourth place in the West playoffs, a spot which would give them home floor advantage in the first round. New York comes in off two straight losses, losing at home to Brooklyn on Thursday and then starting this trip with a 114-105 seback at the Clippers on Monday. The Knicks play a game tomorrow night, so could also be caught looking ahead here. Utah comes home in a foul mood after dropping three straight to close a four-game road trip. Gordon Hayward was a bright spot with 38 points in the most recent setback. I’ll point out though that New York is just 1-2 ATS this year against good defensive teams which concede 98 points or less per contest, while Utah is 12-7 ATS this season against poor defensive clubs which allow 106 points per contest. With a big game against the Clippers on Saturday (the team sitting a half game back in fifth spot in the West), the Jazz can ill afford to drop another “gimme.” This has essentially become a “must win” game for Utah, so lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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03-22-17 | Hawks v. Wizards -7 | 100-104 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 30 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizards (8:00 EST). The 37-33 Atlanta Hawks are in Washington to take on the 42-28 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Atlanta comes in with zero momentum, it’s lost four straight, most recently a 105-90 setback at Charlotte on Monday. The Wizards can empathize, they’ve also been scuffling of late, having lost two in a row and four of their last five, most recently a 110-102 setback at Boston on Monday night. Washington has already won two of three in the season series with Atlanta, including a 112-86 victory on the road in the last matchup back on January 27th. Atlanta averages 103.4 PPG and concedes 104.5. Paul Millsap leads all scorers with 18.1 points, plust 7.7 boards and 3.8 assists per game. The Wizards average 108.8 PPG and concede 106.8. John Wall leads the nightly charge with 22.9 points, 10.8 assists and 1.96 steals per game. I’ll point out though that Atlanta is just 3-11 ATS against the division this year and only 8-10 ATS after a loss by ten points or more (also only 2-7 ATS this year after three or more consecutive losses), while Washington is 21-16 ATS at home this season and 16-12 ATS against teams with winning records. Neither team instills much confidence, but the Wizards are a strong 27-10 at the Verison Center. Atlanta has been without Millsap in the lineup the last two games and I think that once again hurts the Hawks tonight. Look for the Wizards to find a way to get the job done, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-22-17 | 76ers v. Thunder -10.5 | 97-122 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:00 EST). The 26-44 Philadelphia 76ers are in Oklahoma City to take on the 40-30 Thunder and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The 76ers just blew a 15 point halftime lead in a 112-109 setback in OT to Orlando on Monday, while the Thunder had their five-game win skein snapped with a 111-95 home loss to the Warriors later that same evening. If history is any precedence though, then OKC has to be loving its chances today as it’s taken 15 straight in the series, including a 103-97 victory in the most recent, back on October 26th. Despite its recent “up-tick” in play, Philadelphia still ranks 24th in the league in scoring with an average of 102.4 PPG. The 76ers are also below average defensively in conceding 107.6 a night. OKC averages 106.7 PPG and concedes 106. Russell Westbrook leads the way with 31.4 points, 10.5 boards and 10.3 assists per game. I think Philadelphia has a predictable letdown here after its shocking collapse in its last game. The Thunder had been averaging 112 points during their five-game win streak before losing to the Warriors. Suffice it to say, I think Westbrook and company take out their frustrations on their lowly visitors and pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-18-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +3.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* UNDERDOG SUPER SHOCKER is on the Memphis Grizzlies (9:05 EST). The 52-15 San Antonio Spurs are in Memphis to take on the 39-30 Grizzlies and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. San Antonio comes to town off a 110-106 home loss to Portland, while Memphis beat Atlanta 103-91 on Thursday. If recent history is any precedence, then the Grizzlies have to be loving their chances for an upset today, because in the lone meeting between the clubs earlier in the year, they’d score the 89-74 home victory. San Antonio has started to show some signs of fatigue finally, it’s just 2-2 over its last four after winning nine in a row. The Spurs average 106.5 PPG and concede 98.5. The Grizzlies average just 101.4 PPG, but make up for it on the defensive side in conceding just 98.2. In the win over Atlanta, they’d hold the Hawks to 40 percent shooting. Big man Marc Gasol had 18 points, ten boards and ten assists. I’ll point out that San Antonio is just 4-8 ATS this year against the division and only 3-7 ATS when playing on two days rest, while Memphis is 10-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and 15-11 ATS against good offensive teams which average 106 points or more per contest. With a much “easier” game at home tomorrow night against the Kings, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors also in some small way getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. I like the Grizzlies to battle hard until the final moments, grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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03-17-17 | Rockets v. Pelicans +5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New Orleans Pelicans (8:05 EST). The 47-21 Houston Rockets are in New Orleans to take on the 27-41 Pelicans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I think the Rockets are poised for a letdown here after three straight wins, including a victory over the Cavs in that stretch. New Orleans though will be hungry here, it had won two straight before then suffering a loss at red hot Miami on Wednesday. Houston is in third in the West, with no real shot at being able to catch either the Warriors or Spurs. New Orleans still has a playoff shot, but its hopes are dwindling. This is the most important stretch of the enitre season for the Pelicans, with three straight at home. I’ll point out though that Houston has in fact struggled in this spot already this year, going just 11-16 ATS after a win by ten points or more and only 4-5 ATS after scoring 130 points or more. And note that New Orleans has excelled in this position, going 14-8 ATS this season against poor defensive clubs which allow 106 points per contest. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in the end. Play on New Orleans. Good luck…Larry |
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03-16-17 | Thunder v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 123-102 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Raptors (7:05 EST). The 38-29 Oklahoma City Thunder are in Toronto to take on the 39-28 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. OKC comes in complacent in my opinion after rolling to a third straight win, most recently a 122-104 road victory in Brooklyn on Tuesday. The Raptors had lost four of six before smashing Dallas 100-78 on Monday and suffice it to say, with two nights off to focus and prepare, I’m looking for the home side to build off that impressive performance. The Thunder average 106.6 PPG and concede 106.2. The error of margin is obviously extremely slim. Russell Westbrook leads the way wih 31.8 points, 10.6 boards and 10.1 assists per game. Toronto averages 107.2 PPG and concedes 103.4. DeMar DeRozan leads the nightly charge with 27.2 points and 5.4 boards per game. I’ll point out that OKC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games and only 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road against teams with a winning home record, while Toronto is 8-1 ATS in its last nine when playing on two days rest and 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Western Conference. Kyle Lowry is still missing from the mix in Toronto, but despite that, the Raptors are still the deeper team. Serge Ibaka gets a shot at his old club tonight, so look for the home side to come out extra motivated. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-15-17 | Bucks v. Clippers -8 | Top | 97-96 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Clippers (10:35 EST). The 32-34 Milwaukee Bucks are in LA to take on the 40-27 Clippers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Milwaukee’s big six-game SU/ATS win streak is over and suffice it to say, I think the team will suffer a predictable letdown here as it hits the West Coast to take on a revenge minded Clippers team. The Bucks got smashed 113-93 in Memphis, allowing the Grizzlies to shoot 52 percent from the floor and go 14 of 27 from range. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 18 points. The Clippers will be in a foul mood after falling 114-108 in Utah on Monday. It was a tough matchup, as LA had won nine straight in Utah previous to that, so the Jazz were extra fired up for that one. Chris Paul had 33 points in the setback. I’ll point out though that Milwaukee is just 4-11 ATS in its last 14 following a straight-up loss and just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a straight up loss of more than ten points, while LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. Milwaukee beat LA, 112-101 in Milwaukee back on March 3rd. Suffice it to say, I think its “payback” time. Milwaukee has only covered in four of its last 14 trips to LA. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-15-17 | Grizzlies v. Bulls | 98-91 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:00 EST). The 37-30 Memphis Grizzlies are in Chicago to take on the 32-35 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Grizzlies broke a five game losing streak with a convincing 113-93 win at home on Monday over the Bucks and I think the visitors carry that momentum over here. Chicago had also lost five straight before managing a 115-109 road win over Charlotte on Monday. Note that this is a revenge game for Memphis after it fell 108-104 at home to the Bulls back on January 15th. Memphis only averages 101.4 PPG, but the 100.7 they concede is ranked fourth in the league. Marc Gasol averages a team high 20.1 PPG. Chicago averages just 102 PPG and concedes 103.3. Jimmy Butler leads everyone with 23.4 points and 6.2 boards per game, while Dwayne Wade adds 18.8 points and 4.5 boards per contest. I’ll point out though that Memhis is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 against teams with a losing straight-up record, while Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest. I have a hard time seeing the Bulls post another 115 points like they did against the Hornets in their last game, note that previously they had not exceeded 95 during their five-game losing streak. I think the Grizzlies find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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03-15-17 | Blazers +10.5 v. Spurs | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Portland Trailblazers (8:00 EST). The 29-37 Portland Trailblazers are in San Antonio to take on the 52-14 Spurs and while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do think that the hungry visitors can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Blazers are 2.5 games behind Denver for the final playoff spot in the West and were likely caught “looking ahead” to this game against the Spurs after suffering a poor 100-77 loss in New Orleans just last night. Suffice it to say, I think the Blazers bounce back here after that listless performance. Damian Lillard was a bright spot with 29 points. San Antonio on the other hand looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion, it’s won 11 of its last 12 after beating Atlanta earlier in the week. Kawhi Leonard had 31 points in Monday’s 107-99 win over the Hawks. I’ll point out though that Portland is 12-8 ATS this season against good offense clubs, while San Antonio is interestingly just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 against teams with losing records. To say this is a “revenge” game for the Blazers would be an understatement as they’ve dropped five straight in the series and both so far this season. I like the visitors to play with a lot more intensity tonight. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-12-17 | Heat v. Pacers -4 | Top | 98-102 | Push | 0 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Indiana Pacers (7:05 EST). The 31-34 Miami Heat are in Indiana to take on the 33-32 Indiana Pacers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. No need to overthink this one in my opinion. This one sets up great for Indiana in that Miami played just last night, hammering the Raptors in a very satisfying 104-89 victory. Indiana on the other hand comes in desperate, it’s lost two of its last three, including a listless 99-85 setback at Milwaukee on Friday. The Pacers also play with double revenge after dropping both games to the Heat this year. Miami still only averagses 102.3 PPG despite its recent turnaround in play. Indiana averages 104.8 PPG and will be risking life and limb today as it fights for playoff positioning. With two nights off before a long home stretch, I think the tired Heat come out flat tonight and the hungry home side takes full advantage. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-11-17 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -5 | 107-90 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 21 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Memphis Grizzlies. The 35-29 Atlanta Hawks are in Memphis to take on the 36-29 Grizzliez and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Grizzlies have lost four straight and will obviously be extremely focused in trying to end that streak of futility. Atlanta comes in off a very satisfying 105-99 home win over the Raptors just last night and now has to travel cross country and play a non-conference contest. Can anyone say “letdown spot?” The Grizzlies are coming off a humbling 122-109 home loss to the Nets, the worst team in the league: “I don’t know what to say,” said forward Zach Randolph afterwards. Marc Gasol was a bright spot though with 20 points, five boards, five assits, a steal and a block. I’ll point out that Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Western Conference, while Memphis is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 when playing on one days rest. Atlanta is gassed and I think comes out flat. No excuses for Memphis tonight, it’s a perfect set of situational factors working in its favor and I expect it to answer the call. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-11-17 | Knicks +6 v. Pistons | 92-112 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Knicks (5:05 EST). The 26-39 New York Knicks are in Detroit to take on the 32-33 Detroit Pistons and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Knicks are looking to rebound after a 104-93 loss to Milwaukee on Wednesday. It was their third loss in their last four gams. So while New York will clearly be “hungry” to get off the schneid with a victory, Detroit is poised for a predictable letdown here after its come from behind 106-101 home win over the Cavaliers on Thursday. So far these teams have split a pair of games this year, with the Knicks winning 105-102 at home on November 16th in the most recent. New York averages 105.6 PPG and concedes 108.6. Carmelo Anthony averages 23.1 points and six boards per game. Detroit averages just 102.1 PPG and concedes 102.3. Tobias Harris leads the way with 16.3 points plus 5.2 boards per game. I’ll point out that New York is 2-1 ATS in its last three following a loss by ten points or more, while Detroit is just 3-6 ATS this season off an upset win as an underdog. With a game at Cleveland early next week, I think the home side lets the foot off the gas tonight. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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03-09-17 | Spurs v. Thunder +3 | Top | 92-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:00 EST). The 50-13 San Antonio Spurs are in Oklahoma City to take on the 35-29 Thunder and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I think the Spurs are poised for a letdown here, they’ve won nine in a row, including seven straight since the All Star break. Most recently San Antonio would take care of the Kings 114-104 at home on Wednesday. Conversely, the Thunder will be desperate tonight, they’ve lost four straight after falling 126-121 at home to the Trailblazers on Tuesday. OKC also plays with revenge after falling 108-94 in the first meeting between the teams in San Antonio on January 31st. San Antonio averages 106.6 PPG and concedes 98.4. Kawhi Leonard leads the nightly charge with 26.3 points, six boards and 1.89 steals per game. OKC averages 106.3 PPG and concedes 106.5. Russell Westbrook averages 32.1 points, 10.5 boards and ten assists per game. I’ll point out though that the Spurs are just 5-9 ATS in their last 14 on the road and only 5-8 ATS in their last 13 against poor defensive teams which allow 106 points per game, while OKC is 21-10 ATS at home this year, 14-9 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent 9-6 ATS after allowing 115 points or more and 8-4 ATS after scoring 115 points or more. With a matchup at home against Golden State on Saturday night, I think the visitors finally have a small mental lapse this evening. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-07-17 | Lakers +10 v. Mavs | Top | 111-122 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER SHOCKER is on the LA Lakers (8:35 EST). the 19-44 LA Lakers are in Dallas to take on the surging 26-36 Dallas Mavericks and while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do think that the hungry visitors can keep this one a lot more competitive than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. LA comes in off seven straight losses, most recently a 105-97 setback to the Pelicans on Sunday. The Lakers are in full rebuilding mode right now, but clearly the team is going to be hungry to get off the schneid. Conversely, the suddenly over-achieving Mavericks look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after winning their second straight and fourth in their last five with a 104-89 home victory over OKC on Sunday. And to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as Dallas has won 13 straight in the series, including a 122-73 home victory on January 22nd. LA averages 103.9 PPG and concedes 110.8. Julius Randle, D’Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson and Nick Young all average double figures. The Mavs are still last in the league in scoring with an average of just 97.9 PPG. Dallas is tough defensively in conceding only 99.7. Harrison Barnes leads the team with 20.1 points and 5.1 boards per night. I’ll point out though that LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Dallas is 1-2 ATS in its last three after allowing 90 points or less. After big wins over Memphis and Oklahoma City, the Mavs now face the dregs of the league in the Lakers, followed by the Nets and then Suns. All at home. It’s simply not too hard to imagine the home side finally coming in a tiny bit complacent here as it looks past its lowly opponent to this very favorable/vanilla part of its schedule. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-06-17 | Celtics v. Clippers -5 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 31 h 18 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Clippers (10:35 EST). The 40-22 Boston Celtics are in LA to take on the 37-25 Clippers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Boston comes in off a deflating 109-106 loss at Phoenix on Sunday, while the Clippers come in off a big victory over the Bulls. Suffice it to say, I think the C’s have a predictable letdown here in the second game of the back-to-back. Boston averages 108 PPG and got 35 points from Isaiah Thomas yesterday afternoon, but it wasn’t enough as the defense looked horrible. The Clippers had lost four games after the All-Star break, but Jamal Crawford would score 28 points and LA would net the 109-100 victory over Chicago: “He’s going to always break out,” LA coach Doc Rivers said of Crawford. “I always tell him to give yourself a shooter’s chance. If you don’t shoot it, you have no chance of breaking out of it.” The Clippers average 107.8 PPG and concede 104.9. I’ll point out that Boston is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven against the Pacific, while LA is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 when playing on one days rest. I think the Clippers come in focused on the task at hand and take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-06-17 | Pacers v. Hornets -3.5 | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 29 h 49 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Charlotte Hornets (8:05 EST). The 31-30 Indiana Pacers are in Charlotte to take on the 27-35 Hornets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Indiana comes in off an extremely satisfying 97-96 win in Atlanta just last night. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. Charlotte enters off a much needed 112-102 road win over Denver on Saturday. These teams have split a pair of game this year, each winning on its home floor. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the Hornets to build off their latest victory and to keep this trend alive. This is the finale of a five-game road trip for Indiana as well, so it’s definitely not too hard to imagine Indiana getting caught “looking ahead” to its upcoming home stretch. And note, despite the victory, Indiana has lost eight of its last ten. Indiana averages 105.3 PPG and concedes 106.2. Charlotte averages 104.9 PPG and concedes 104.6. The Hornets would go on to shoot 16 of 27 from range in the win over Denver, Kemba Walker led all scorers with 27 points. The Hornets are still alive in the playoff race, sitting three games back of eighth spot. Note that they’re 16-13 at home this year. And I’ll point out that Indiana is just 12-17 ATS on the road this season, while Charlotte is 3-1 ATS this year after a win by ten points or more. Charlotte is 0-8 ATS in its last eight at home, but I think that lop-sided trend ends tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-04-17 | Nets v. Blazers -11 | Top | 116-130 | Win | 100 | 30 h 37 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Portland Trailblazers (10:05 EST). The 10-49 Brooklyn Nets are in Portland to take on the 25-35 Trailblazers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. When these teams met on November 20th, Portland came away with the 129-109 victory. Suffice it to say, I expect a similar final outcome here as well. Brooklyn was smashed in Utah just last night and I think will come into this one “gassed.” Conversely, the Blazers are finally coming off a big win and will be looking to snowball that momentum after beating the Thunder 114-109 at home. Portland would shoot 49.4 percent from the floor and go 10 of 25 from range. But more impressievly, Portland would hold OKC to just 39.5 percent shooting, while outrebounding it by five. Damian Lillard had 33 points and five assists. I’ll point out that Brooklyn is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 against the Western Conference, while Portland is 5-2 ATS the last seven in this series. Portland can ill afford to lets games like these slip through its fingers as it continues its hunt for a playoff spot. I’m expecting a blowout from start to finish, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-04-17 | Wolves +8.5 v. Spurs | 90-97 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnsota Timberwolves (9:05 EST). The 25-36 Minnesota Timberwolves are in San Antonio to take on the 46-13 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Wolves come in playing their best basketball of the season, having won two straight and four of their last five after destroying Utah 107-80 on the road on Wednesday. The Spurs won their sixth straight last night, needing OT in the 101-98 victory in New Orleans. Suffice it to say, i think the home side is going to be “gassed” tonight. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement as well as the Spurs have won 11 straight in the series, including a 122-114 victory at home on January 17th in the most recent. In Minnesota’s most recent win, it would shoot 50 percent and hit eight 16 from range. The Wolves would also hold the Jazz to just 38.9 perecent from the floor and only four of 19 from behind the arc. Karl-Anthony Towns led the way with 21 points and 15 boards. It was a “sloppy” win for the Spurs last night, who would miss 10 of 25 free throw attempts. I’ll point out that the Wolves are 14-9 ATS this year against good offensive teams which average 106 PPG, while San Antonio is just 1-3 ATS in its last four against teams with losing records. I think the stage is set for the outright upset, but in the end, I’ll recommend grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-04-17 | Pistons -5 v. 76ers | 136-106 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Pistons (6:05 EST). The 29-32 Detroit Pistons are at Philadelphia to take on the 23-38 76ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Detroit is looking to hold onto its playoff spot, it comes into this one having lost two of its last three, most recently a humbling 109-86 setback in New Orleans on Wednesday. The 76ers are poised for a letdown here in my opinion after they broke a three-game slide with a 105-102 home win over New York just last night. Detroit ranks 26th in scoring at 101.5 PPG. It makes up for it on the defensive side, ranked sixth overall in conceding 102.1 PPG. Tobias Harris leads the nightly charge with 16.2 points and five boards per game. Philadelphia averages just 101.7 PPG, but concedes 107.4. The team is dealing with several injuries and I think it will struggle to keep up with this focused Pistons side. I’ll point out that Detroit is 6-2 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and 11-7 ATS after a loss by ten points or more, while Philadelphia is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after scoring 105 points or more. The 76ers are going to be gassed tonight after the victory over the Knicks on Friday, while the Pistons come in completely rested. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-03-17 | Nets v. Jazz -13.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* NON CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Utah Jazz (9:05 EST). The 10-49 Brooklyn Nets are in Utah to take on the 37-24 Jazz and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Nets are poised for an immediate return to mediocrity after they broke a 16-game road losing streak with a 109-100 effort over the Kings on Wednesday. The Jazz have lost two straight and will be out to atone for a brutal 107-80 home loss to the Wolves on Wednesday. If recent history is any precedence though, then Utah has to be liking its chances for a bounce back performance as it’s taken five straight in the series, including a 101-89 road win in the first matchup this year back on January 2nd. Brooklyn averages 105.4 PPG, which lands them 14th overall. The Nets though are last in the NBA in scoring defense in conceding a whopping 114.2 PPG. Brook Lopez has been a standout this year, leading with 20.5 PPG. Utah averages 100.2 PPG, but concedes just 96 per contest. George Hill is one of four players averaging double figures, with 17.7 points per contest. I’ll point out that the Nets are just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 on one days rest, while the Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last six following a double-digit loss at home. Brooklyn is ripe for a letdown after the rare win, while the hungry Jazz are desperate to wash the stink of back-to-back pathetic efforts out of their mouths. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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03-03-17 | Raptors +5 v. Wizards | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE REVENGE PLAY OF THE MONTH is on the Toronto Raptors (7:05 EST). The 36-25 Toronto Raptors are in Washington to take on the 36-23 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Wizards pulled away for a win at home and then followed that with a victory on the road over these very Raptors the next night. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Washington. Conversely, the Raptors are hungry and searching for answers after losing point guard Kyle Lowry to injury for an undetermined amount of time. Toronto though can take confidence in knowing that when it last played in the nation’s capital, it would come away with the 113-103 victory on November 2nd. DeMar DeRozan is healthy and averaging 27.8 PPG and he’s now joined with newcomers Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker. Toronto averages 108 PPG and concedes 104. Washington averages 107.9 PPG and concedes 105.4. I’ll point out that Toronto is 14-7 ATS this year against teams with winning records, while Washington is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 overall and only 1-2 ATS in the second game of a back to back after scoring 105 points or more in the first game. I think this one comes down to the wire and will therefore be grabbing the points. Play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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03-02-17 | Warriors -6.5 v. Bulls | Top | 87-94 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Golden State Warriors (8:00 EST). The 50-10 Golden State Warriors are in Chicago to take on the 30-30 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Warriors dropped the second game of a back-to-back in a 112-108 setback at Washington on Tuesday, while Chicago had its four game win streak snapped with a 125-107 home loss to Denver on Tuesday. But if recent history is any precedence, then the Warriors have to be loving their chances today as they’ve won three straight in this series, including 123-92 at home in the first matchup back on February 8th. Kevin Durant is out for the Warriors, but I say who cares. At least for this game anyways. I like the Warriors to rally together today and use Durant’s injury as fuel to compete for the rest of the regular season. Note that Golden State boasts the No. 1 offense with 118.1 PPG, while ranked 14th on the defensive end in conceding 105.5. The Bulls average just 102.9 PPG, while ranked seventh overall in conceding 103.4 per night. Chicago is led by Jimmy Butler, with 24 points and 6.3 boards per game. I think it’s important to point out that Chicago is last in the league with 6.7 three pointers per game and last overall by shooting 32.5 percent from range. Also note that Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a straight up loss, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Western Conference. I have a hard time seeing the Bulls keeping pace with what should be a highly motivated Stephen Curry and company. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-27-17 | Warriors -13.5 v. 76ers | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONF GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Golden State Warriors (7:05 EST). The 49-9 Golden State Warriors are in Philadelphia to take on the 22-36 76ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Golden State enters off a third straight win and sixth in its last seven after handling the Nets 112-95 at home on Saturday. The 76ers have played a lot better over the last month, but looked primed for a letdown here after a late rally came up short in a 110-109 setback at new York on Saturday. If recent history is any precedence, then the Warriors have to be loving their chances today as they’ve taken six straight in the series, including in the most recent, a 117-105 home victory back on March 27th. Golden State is the No. 1 ranked offense in the league with an average of 118.2 PPG. The Warriors also lead the league in assists with 31 a night. Golden State is in the middle of the pack on the defensive end, ranked 12th in conceding 105.4 per night. Kevin Durant is leading the nightly charge with 25.7 points and 8.4 boards per game. Despite the recent “up tick” in play, Philadelphia is still ranked 25th overall in scoring with 101.6 PPG, while ranked 23rd on the defensive end in conceding 106.9. I’ll also point out that Golden State is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss and 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight against the Eastern Conference, while Philadelphia is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 110 points or more. I think the visitors keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-25-17 | 76ers v. Knicks -4.5 | Top | 109-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* EAST-CONF BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH is on the New York Knicks (7:35 EST). The 21-35 Philadelphia 76ers are in New York to take on the 23-35 Knicks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The 76ers are coming off a game just last night, besting the red hot Wizards 120-112 and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here in the second game of the back-to-back. The Knicks however will be desperate to break their current slide of futility, they enter off their sixth loss in their last seven games, most recently falling 119-104 to the Cavs on the road Thursday. New York also plays with revenge here after falling 98-97 in Philadelphia back on January 11th. Despite the recent “up tick” in play for the 76ers though, note that they’re still just 8-19 on the road this season. They also only average 101.2 PPG, while conceding 106.8. New York averages 106 PPG and concedes 109.4. Carmelo Anthony still leads the way with 23.3 points and six boards per contest. I’ll point out though that Philadelphia is just 1-2 ATS in its last three on the road, while New York is 12-7 ATS this year after allowing 115 points or more and 10-7 ATS after a loss by ten points or more. I think a desperate, hungry and revenge-minded Knicks team finally gets off the schneid with a convincing effort. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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02-24-17 | Heat v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 108-90 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* REVENGE BLOWOUT is on the Atlanta Hawks (8:05 EST). Miami was one of the hotttest teams in the league heading into the All Star break, winning 14 out of its final 16 games, including big victories over Houston, Golden State and these very Atlanta Hawks. Wiill “rest lead to rust” though for the Heat? I think the answer is yes. And now the Hawks look to take advantage and to avenge the earlier setback. Atlanta is just 2.5 games out of third place and will be eager to return after dropping three of its final five leading up to the break. Goran Dragic leads the way for Miami with 20.3 points and 6.2 assists per game, while Dwight Howard is the leader in Atlanta with 13.5 points and 13 boards per game. I’ll point out that Miami is just 13-14 ATS against teams with winning records this year and only 11-12 ATS after a non-conference game, while Atlanta is 8-6 ATS this season after a loss by ten points or more and 2-1 ATS in its last three against clubs with losing records. Divisional contests are always the toughest and they almost always mean more to the home side. After losing the first matchup of the year between the clubs, the Hawks will be out to make a statement tonight. And note, with a game tomorrow at home against the Pacers, it’s not too difficult to imagine the visitors getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-23-17 | Knicks +10.5 v. Cavs | Top | 104-119 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Knicks (8:00 EST). The 23-24 New York Knicks are in Cleveland to take on the 39-16 Cavaliers on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. New York is at a cross roads right now, as it’s still in the playoff picture, but clearly needing some better play and some type of surge to stay in the conversation. The Cavs are in first in the East and look forward to a favorable part of their schedule with three straight games at home over inferior opponents. After the extended All Star break, could the defending champs come out a bit flat in the opener? Possibly. The Knicks however absolutely can not take anything for granted and need to start stringing some victories together immeidately. Obviously an outright upset win on the road against the Cavs would be a monumental step in the right direction for the club. And while I’m not going to predict an outright upset, I do think from a motivational stand point that this one sets up great for the visitors tonight. Remember, Kevin Love is still out for Cleveland as well. And note that the Knicks have in fact done well in this spot for bettors, going 15-8 ATS after a non-conference game, 1-0 ATS when playing with one more days rest and 11-6 ATS after allowing 115 points or more, while the Cavaliers have struggled in this position, going just 5-11 ATS after three or more consecutive SU victories and only 10-16 ATS against teams with losing records. I think the home side comes out a bit flat and the desperate Knicks take this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-15-17 | Hawks +2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 84-99 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Hawks (10:35 EST). The 32-23 Atlanta Hawks are in LA to take on the 34-21 Clippers and for a number of different reasons, i think this one favors the visitors. I believe that LA has a letdown after winning three straight and in the final game before the All Star break. The Hawks come to town off a confidence building 109-104 OT victory in Portland on Monday. Note that this sets up as a “revenge” game as well for the visitors after LA beat the Hawks by ten in Atlanta earlier in the year. Keep your eyes on the Hawks’ Paul Millsap tonight, he had 21 points, nine rebounds, five assists and four blocked shots in the victory over Portland. Atlanta averages 104.1 PPG and concedes 104.3. LA averages 108.1 PPG and concedes 104.5. Blake Griffin has stepped up his play of late, averaging 26 points, 7.5 assists and 10.3 boards over his last four games. I’ll point out though that that Clippers are just 8-12 ATS in non-conference games this year, just 9-10 ATS after a win by ten points or more and only 7-8 ATS after three or more consecutive SU victories, while the Hawks are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent and 5-3 ATS as a road dog of three points or less. I think the home side comes out a bit flat and the Hawks, at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-15-17 | Blazers v. Jazz -7 | 88-111 | Win | 100 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Utah Jazz (9:05 EST). The 23-32 Portland Trailblazers are in Utah to take on the 34-22 Jazz and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Both teams come in on losing streaks, as the Jazz have lost three straight, while the Blazers have gone just 1-4 in their last five following a deflating OT loss to ATL on Monday. It’s been Utah’s offense which has let it down of late, amassing a season-low in its latest setback to the Clippers. The Jazz are still the best defensive club in the league though and I think they get back to form tonight. The Jazz offense also catches a break in facing the Blazers’ vanilla defense, ranked in the lower-third in most categories. I’ll also point out that Portland is just 10-18 ATS on the road this season, just 10-15 ATS against clubs with winning records, only 14-24 ATS after allowing 105 points or more and just 3-7 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. And note that Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five after scoring 73 points or less in its previous outing. I think the Jazz are the deeper team and expect their smothering defense to be just too much for the inconsistent Blazers to handle tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-15-17 | Spurs -10.5 v. Magic | 107-79 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (7:05 EST). The 42-13 San Antonio Spurs are in Orlando to take on the 21-36 Magic and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. This is the final game of the first half before the All Star break. The Spurs come to town off a 110-106 win over Indiana on Monday, while the Magic enter off a rare victory, picking up a 116-107 road win over the Heat on Monday. Note that this does in fact set up as a “revenge” spot for the Spurs, as Orlando took the first matchup of the season, 95-83, back on November 29th. Suffice it to say, I think Gregg Popovich and company haven’t forgotten that embarrassing performance and will be out to atone with a big beatdown performance this evening. San Antonio averages 106.7 PPG and concedes just 98.7. Kawhi Leonard leads the nightly charge with 25.9, 5.9 boards and 1.8 steals a night. Big man Lamarcus Aldridge contributes 17.4 points and 7.4 boards. Let’s not read too much into the Magic’s latest victory, they’d lost four straight and six of seven prevoius to downing the Heat. Note that Orlando averages just 99.9 PPG and concedes 106.1. I’ll point out that the Spurs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their prevoius outing, while the Magic are just 1-5 ATS in their last six against the Western Conference. The Magic just dealt Serge Ibaka and will once again have to make adjustments on the fly. That doesn’t bode well facing a Spurs team that’s firing on all cylinders and out for revenge. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-14-17 | Kings v. Lakers +1 | Top | 97-96 | Push | 0 | 32 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE BLOWOUT SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the LA Lakers. The 23-32 Sacramento Kings are in LA to take on the 19-37 Lakers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Kings are poised for a letdown here in my opinion after going 4-1 on a five-game homestand, including downing the Pelicans 105-99 at home on Sunday. LA returns home off a 2-3 road trip, most recently beating the Bucks 122-114 on Friday. To say this is a “revenge” game for the Lakers would be a bit of an understatement as the Kings have won eight of the last nine in the series, including 116-92 in the lone matchup this season back on December 12th. It’s a classic letdown spot for Sacramento though, which also beat Golden State, Boston and Atlanta during the home surge. And note that despite the recent up-tick in play, the Kings are still tied for just 21st in the league in scoring with an average of 103.4 PPG. Unfortunately, the defense hasn’t been much better, ranked 18th in conceding an average of 105.8 per contest. DeMarcus Cousins averages 27.8 points and 10.7 boards per game this year. The Lakers posted 47 first quarter points against the Bucks on Friday. Overall LA is ranked 18th in the league in scoring with an average of 104.7 PPG, while ranked 29th on the defensive end in conceding 110.5 per night. Keep your eyes on Lou Williams, who leads the team with 18.4 points and 3.1 assists per night. I’ll point out that Sacramento is already just 9-13 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more and 0-2 ATS after three or more consecutive SU victories, while LA is 7-5 ATS after playing three consecutive road games and 7-2 ATS in its last nine against good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. The stage is set for the Lakers to grab another victory. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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02-13-17 | Clippers v. Jazz -7 | Top | 88-72 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Utah Jazz (9:05 EST). The 33-21 LA Clippers are in Utah to take on the 34-21 Jazz and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I think the Clippers are poised for a letdown here after two straight wins. Conversely, after a 112-104 setback to the C’s on Saturday, I expect the home side to come out fired up tonight. Also note that Utah plays with revenge after dropping the first game of the season to the Clippers 88-75 on the road back in October. The Clippers average 108.5 PPG and concede 105.1. The Jazz average just 100.5 PPG, but are ranked No. 1 in the league on the defensive end in conceding a mere 96 PPG. And I’ll point out that LA is just 1-2 ATS this season as a road dog in the 6.5 to nine points range, while Utah is 2-1 ATS in its last three after allowing 105 points or more. I think Utah comes in focused, eager to break the string of shoddy play and to avenge the earlier loss to the Clippers. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-13-17 | Magic +8 v. Heat | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Orlando Magic (7:35 EST). The 20-36 Orlando Magic are in Miami to take on the 24-31 Heat and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Magic come in as the “hungrier” team tonight after dropping four straight, most recently a 112-80 aetback at Dallas on Saturday. The Heat had their 13 game win strek snapped in a 117-109 road loss to the lowly 76ers on Saturday night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting another letdown here. The first game back after an extended trip is always a tough one for a team, many consider it a classic “trap” scenario. Momentum is difficult to attain and once lost, it can be even more difficult to get back. And that’s the case here in my opinion. I’ll point out that Orlando is 3-1 ATS this year after scoring 85 points or less and 7-3 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses, while Miami is already just 4-5 ATS after playing three consecutive road games. I like the desperate visitors to keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-13-17 | 76ers v. Hornets -8.5 | 105-99 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Charlotte Hornets (7:05 EST). The 20-34 Philadelphia 76ers are in Charlotte to take on the 24-30 Hornets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I simply feel that Charlotte is going to be the much “hungrier” team tonight. It’s lost nine of ten, most recently a 107-102 home setback to the Clippers on Saturday. Conversely, the over-achieving 76ers are poised for a bit of a letdown here in my opinion after winning their second straight, most recently a 117-109 home victory over Miami. Despite the recent surge, Philadelphia remains one of the worst teams in the league on paper, averaging just 101 PPG and conceding 106.8. Compare that to a Hornets club which averages 104.9 PPG and concedes 104.5. And I’ll point out that Philadelphia is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the 6.5 to nine points range, while Charlotte is 2-1 ATS in its last three at home. I expect the Hornets to risk life and limb tonight to try and secure the victory and their immense effort will translate into a lop-sided blowout once it’s all said and done. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-09-17 | Jazz v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Dallas Mavericks (8:35 EST). The 34-19 Utah Jazz are in Dallas to take on the 20-32 Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. No need to overthink this one too much in my opinion, as Utah comes in off a big 127-94 win over New Orleans just last night. I unfortunately had a play on the Pelicans in that one. The Jazz are poised for a letdown now after four straight wins and the revenge minded and much improved Mavericks will be looking to take advantage. Dallas comes in as the “hungrier” team as it’s now dropped two in a row, most recently a 114-113 setback at home to Portland on Tuesday. Note that Dallas does in fact play with “triple revenge” tonight, after dropping all three previous games to the Jazz this season. This is a great situational play, as Utah comes in tired and content. The Mavs are eager to return to the winners circle, have home court advantage and big motivation after already dropping three games to the Jazz this year. And I’ll point out that Utah is just 10-14 ATS on the road this year and interestingly, only 18-22 ATS against poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest, while Dallas is 8-2 ATS in revenging a home loss against an opponent and 12-6 ATS after allowing 105 points or more. While I clearly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Dallas. Good luck…Larry |
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02-08-17 | Heat v. Bucks -2 | Top | 106-88 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER SHOCKER is on the Milwaukee Bucks (8:05 EST). The 22-30 Miami Heat are in Milwaukee to take on the 22-28 Bucks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Miami comes in on the back of an 11-game win streak, but I think it will finally have a letdown here. The Heat most recently got by Minnesota 115-113 on the road on Monday. Conversely, the Bucks are looking to build momentum, they finally got off the schneid and broke a five-game slide with a resounding 137-112 beatdown of the Suns on Saturday. Note that this does indeed also set up as a “revenge” game for Milwaukee, as Miami has taken two of three meetings this year, including a 109-97 home win on January 21st in the most recent. Note that despite the big win streak, the Heat still rank 25th in the league in scoring at 100.7 PPG. Miami is strong defenisvely though, conceding just 102.2 PPG. Goran Dragic usually leads the nightly charge, he’s averaging a team-leading 20.1 PPG. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 30 points, 12 boards, six assists and four blocks in his team’s win over the Suns last time out. Milwaukee averages 105.3 PPG and concedes 105.1. Keep your eyes on big man Greg Monroe, who averages 11.1 points and 6.7 boards in a sixth man role. I’ll point out that Miami is just 10-12 ATS this year after a non-conference game, while Milwaukee is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season after playing three consecutive road games and 5-3 ATS as a home fav of three points or less. Milwaukee comes in rested and focused after four days off. Too many factors working against Miami tonight, I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-08-17 | Jazz v. Pelicans +4 | Top | 127-94 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH is on the New Orleans Pelicans (8:05 EST). The 33-19 Utah Jazz are in New Orleans to take on the 20-32 Pelicans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I believe the Jazz will finally have a letdown here after winning three straight. New Orleans though will be looking to build some momentum after getting off the schneid and breaking a four-game losing streak in a win over the Suns on Monday. Utah played over its head in its 120-95 win over Atlanta on Monday, shooting a season-high 61.3 percent from the floor. Suffice it to say, I am not expecting a repeat performance here. In fact, there’s only one way that shooting percentage can go (and that’s down!). Anthony Davis had 34 points, nine boards and five blocks in his team’s 111-106 win over Phoenix on Monday. Point guard Jrue Holiday had 30 points, nine boards, seven assists and three steals. I’ll point out that Utah is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight on the road, while New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four home against against teams with winng road records and 5-2 ATS in its last seven following an ATS loss. The Jazz have a hard time with Davis, who averaged 25.3 points and 9.8 boards in four games against them last year. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Pelicans. Good luck…Larry |
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02-07-17 | Magic v. Rockets -11 | Top | 104-128 | Win | 100 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Houston Rockets (8:00 EST). The 20-33 Orlando Magic are in Houston to take on the 37-17 Houston Rockets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Magic come in with zero momentum, they lost for the seventh time in their last ten games with a 113-86 loss at Atlanta on Saturday. The Rockets can empathize, they’ve also hit a bit of a rough patch, but do come in off a 121-117 OT win at home over the Bulls to win for just the third time in their last eight overall. These team’s met in Orlando on January 8th and Houston scored the 100-93 victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much bigger blowout this evening. The Magic average 99.6 PPG and allow 105.4 per night. Evan Fournier leads the nightly charge with 16.6 PPG. The Rockets average 114.1 PG and allow 108.3. Houston is led by James Harden with 28.9 points, 8.2 boards and 11.4 assists per night. I’ll point out that Orlando is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 when its opponent allows 100 points or more in its previous game, while the Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Houston is tough at home. I think it builds off its latest victory and keeps the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-05-17 | Clippers +6 v. Celtics | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* CASH BOMB is on the LA Clippers (2:05 EST). The 31-19 LA Clippers are in Boston to take on the 32-18 Boston Celtics and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Clippers are the “hungrier” team in my estimation as they come in having lost three of their last four, most recently a 133-120 setback at home to Golden State on Thursday. Conversely, the surging Celtics look poised for a letdown here after winning their sixth straight, most recently a 113-107 win at home over the Lakers on Friday night. Note that LA averages 108.4 PPG and concedes just 104.7. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 21.4 points, 8.7 boards and 4.6 assists per game. Boston averages 108.3 PPG and concedes 105.7. Isaiah Thomas leads the way with 29.9 points and 6.3 assists per game. These are two good teams, but they’re moving in opposite directions right now. But I think that trend starts to move the other way tonight. Boston is likely playing its best ball of the season, but after six straight wins, including three straight at home, and with two nights off before a long Western Conference road swing, I think it finally has a letdown here. It’s the perfect situation for the Clippers (and us!), to take advantage of. Grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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02-04-17 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Wizards | Top | 91-105 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the New Orleans Pelicans (7:00 EST). The 19-31 New Orleans Pelicans are in Washington to take on the 29-20 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. New Orleans will be hungry here, it’s coming off its third straight loss, this time a 118-98 setback on the road in Detroit on Wednesday. Conversely, the Wizards could hardly be faulted if they came in a tiny bit complacent as they are off their sixth straight victory, most recently a 116-108 home win over the Lakers on Thursday. To say this is a “revenge” game would be an understatement as well as Washington has taken nine of the last ten in the series, including a 107-94 road victory in the first matchup of the year just last week. New Orleans averages 103.4 PPG and concedes 106.5. Big man Anthony Davis averages 27.9 points, 12.3 boards, 1.3 steals and 2.39 blocks per game. Davis is going to need a few more pieces around him before the Pelicans can ever make any serious noise at a playoff run, note that E’Twaun Moore contributes 9.8 points a night, while Tim Frazier chips in 9.1. Washington averages 107.1 PPG and concedes 105. Guard John Wall leads the way with 23 points, 10.3 assists and 2.15 steals per game. I’ll point out though that New Orleans is already 20-15 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and 4-2 ATS as a road dog in the 6.5 to nine points range, while Washington is just 1-3 ATS in its last four non-conference games. With the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers coming to town on Monday night, it’s also not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught looking ahead to that much more “important” game. I’m banking on the desperate Pelicans to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-03-17 | Grizzlies v. Thunder -1.5 | Top | 102-114 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:05 EST). The 30-21 Memphis Grizzlies are in Oklahoma City to take on the 28-22 Thunder and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. This is a big mid-season game as the Thunder sit just 1.5 games behind No. 6 Memphis in the playoff standings. They’ve already played twice this year, each winning on its home floor. I simply feel this sets up as a letdown spot for Memphis though, which has played well of late, winning three straight on the road. The Thunder on other hand have lost three straight, most recently a humbling 128-100 setback at home to the Bulls on Wednesday. The Grizzlies average 100.6 PPG and concede 99.5. Despite struggling some on the offensive end of late, OKC still comes into this one averaging 105.7 PPG. The problem most nights for the Thunder is on the defensive end as they concede an average of 105.7 as well. I’ll point out though that Memphis is just 8-10 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more, while OKC is 8-5 ATS after a loss by ten points or more. Both teams are dealing with injury issues, but I think this one simply means more to Russell Westbrook and the Thunder. Good value on the “hungry” home side, play on Oklahoma City. Good luck…Larry |
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02-01-17 | 76ers v. Mavs -6 | Top | 95-113 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Dallas Mavericks (8:35 EST). The 18-29 Philadelphia 76ers are in Dallas to take on the 18-30 Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The 76ers most recently beat the Kings 122-119 to stop a two-game slide, while the Mavericks won for the fourth time in their last five games with an upset 104-97 victory over the Cavaliers at home on Monday. Philadelphia won despite big man Joel Embiid sidelined last time out. Robert Covington had 23 points and ten boards against Sacramento. The 76ers average just 100.9 PPG and concede 106. The Mavs are last in the league in scoring at 97.1 PPG. Dallas though is pretty good on the defensive side, conceding just 100.1 points per night. But there’s no question that Dallas has looked a lot better of late. And that’s mainly because it’s been getting healthier. Harrison Barnes leads the nightly charge with 20.4 points and 5.3 boards per night. Embiid is not expected to play today and that doesn’t bode well for the visitors in my opinion. Even if he does play, I don’t expect him to be at 100% capacity. The Mavs are getting big contributions up and down the line-up right now and note that Dallas is already 5-1 ATS as a favorite this year. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-31-17 | Hornets +3 v. Blazers | Top | 98-115 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Charlotte Hornets (10:05 EST). The 23-25 Charlotte Hornets are in Portland to take on the 21-28 Blazers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. These are two teams desperate for some wins. Charlotte dropped its fourth straight and ninth in its last 12 with a 109-106 setback to Sacramento on Saturday. Portland had its three game win streak snapped with a disheartening 113-111 home loss to Golden State on Sunday. Momentum is difficult to attain and once lost, it’s even more difficult to get back. I think this one sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Blazers after their extended streak of excellence was finally cut short in an emotional setback to the conference’s heavyweight. And if recent history is any precedence, then the Hornets have to be loving their chances today as when they faced the Blazers on January 18th, they’d pull away for the convincing 107-85 victory back on January 18th. So far Charlotte averages 105.2 PPG and concedes 103.6. Kemba Walker leads the nightly charge with 23.3 PPG. Note that the Hornets are tied for tenth with 9.7 threes per game. Portland averages 107.6 PPG and allows 110.2 (the fourth worst). Damian Lillard averages 26.2 points and 5.9 assists per contest. I’ll point out that Charlotte is 2-1 ATS in its last three when playing with two days of rest, while Portland is just 13-20 ATS in its last 33 after allowing 105 points or more and only 8-15 ATS against teams with losing records. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-30-17 | Pistons +7 v. Celtics | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Pistons (8:05 EST). The 21-26 Detroit Pistons are in Boston to take on the 29-18 Celtics and for a number of different reasons, i think this one favors the visitors. The Pistons come in as the “hungrier” team in my opinion. Detroit has lost two straight, most recently a 116-103 road loss in Miami on Saturday. Conversely, I think Boston could be caught a tiny bit complacent after three straight wins, most recently a hard-fought 112-108 OT win in Mliwaukee on Saturday. If recent history is any precedence, then Detroit has to be liking its chances today, as it would take the first matchup of the year in a 121-114 home victory back on November 30th. Detroit averages just 100.6 PPG, but gets balanced scoring. The Pistons are an above average defensive team, conceding just 101.6 PPG. Reggie Jackson averages 17.2 points and 5.5 assists per contest. Is Boston about to take the foot off the gas after capturing first place in the Atlantic after Toronto lost to Orlando on Sunday? Maybe. The team blew a 15 point lead after the first quarter and let an eight point lead entering the fourth slip away against the Bucks before then managing to gut out the OT victory. Note that the C’s shot just 41.6 percent from the floor, including a poor 14 of 40 from beyond the arc. I think the Celtics are running out of gas. And note that Boston is already just 2-4 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU wins, while Detroit is 2-1 ATS in its last three after a loss by ten points or more. The stage is set for the outright upset, but in the end I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
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01-30-17 | Nets +9.5 v. Heat | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:35 EST). The 9-38 Brooklyn Nets are in Miami to take on the 18-30 Heat and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. This is a revenge game for the Nets after they fell 109-106 to Miami on January 25th. I feel this sets up as natural letdown spot for the over-acheiving Heat, who have won seven straight. Conversely, the Nets will be risking life and limb today in trying to get back into the winners circle, as they come into this one having lost five in a row. Most recently Brooklyn fell 129-109 to Minnesota on Saturday. Brook Lopez was a bright spot with 25 points and seven boards. The Heat most recently beat Detroit 116-103 on Saturday. Goran Dragic had 23 points. Despite the recent better overall play of late, note that Miami is still just 10-13 SU at home this year. And note that Brooklyn is already 9-4 ATS this season in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Miami is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home fav in the 9.5 to 12 points range. I like the Nets to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-27-17 | Kings +4 v. Pacers | 111-115 | Push | 0 | 28 h 50 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Sacramento Kings (7:00 EST). The 18-27 Sacramento Kings are in Indiana to take on the 23-22 Pacers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I had a play on Indiana last night, a 4-point dog which would win outright on the road over the Wolves. I now think this sets up a natural letdown spot for Indiana. Sacramento comes to town with plenty of momentum as well after winning two straight, most recently a confidence building 116-112 OT victory over the Cavs on Wednesday. Note that this also sets up as a “revenge” game for the visitors, who fell 106-100 to the Pacers at home back on January 18th. With the win over the defending champs, the Kings are now just 1.5 games out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Sacramento is in the middle of the pack on both the offensive and defensive ends of the floor, but does catch a break here in facing the now contented Pacers. Indiana is an average offensive team with 105.4 PPG and a sub-par defensive one in conceding 106.8 per night. And I’ll point out that Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road, while Indiana is only 1-5 ATS in its last six against the Western Conference. These are two teams desperate for victories, but I think Sacramento catches the Pacers at a good time. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. Play on the Kings. Good luck…Larry |
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01-26-17 | Pacers +4 v. Wolves | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Indiana Pacers (8:05 EST). The 22-22 Indiana Pacers are in Minnesota to take on the 17-28 Timberwolves and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Pacers are going to be the “hungrier” team tonight in my estimation, they enter off a third straight loss, this time 109-103 at home to the Knicks. Conversely, I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the suddenly over-achieving Timberwolves who come in off their third straight victory, most recently a 112-111 win on the road over Phoenix. So far Indiana averages 105.4 PPG, while conceding 106.8. Paul George leads the way with an average of 22.2 PPG. Minnesota averages 103.5 PPG and allows 104.5. Karl-Anthony Towns leads the way with 22.4 PPG. I’ll point out though that Indiana is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 when playing on two days rest, while Minnesota is interestingly just 19-41-1 ATS in its last 61 home games against teams with a losing road record. A desperate Indiana team. A contented Minnesota side. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-25-17 | Heat v. Nets +4 | Top | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Brooklyn Nets (7:35 EST). The 15-30 Miami Heat are in Brooklyn to take on the 9-35 Nets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I simply feel this sets up as a big time letdown spot for the Heat, who come in off their season-high fourth straight win after upsetting the Warriors 105-102 on Monday night. Brooklyn will be the much “hungrier” side tonight, it comes in having dropped two straight, most recently a 112-86 setback at home to the Spurs on Monday. And to say this is a “revenge” game would be an understatement, as Miami has won seven of the last eight in the series, including a 110-99 home victory in the most recent matchup back on March 28th, 2016. Despite the win over the Warriors, Miami still only averages 98.9 PPG. Brooklyn averages 105.8. The Heat are much better defensively, but as i mentioned off the top, it’s impossible not to think that Miami won’t have some sort of letdown here after their shocking defeat of mighty Golden State last time out. Combined with the revenge factor, it’s a perfect set of situational circumstances to take advantage of. Also note that Miami is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off an upset win as an underdog, while Brooklyn is 10-7 ATS in its last 17 against teams with losing records. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on Brooklyn. Good luck…Larry |
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01-23-17 | Thunder +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (9:05 EST). OKC sits 3.5 games behind the Jazz in the Western Conference standings, making this a very meaningful mid-season game. He may have been snubbed at the All Star Game, but I think Russell Westbrook brings his “A” game tonight and at the very least, helps his team take this one down to the wire. The Thunder enter off a 121-100 loss to the Warriors, a game which was tied at halftime. Westbrook would go on to finish with 27 points, 15 boards, 13 assists, two steals and two blocks in the loss. It was his 21st triple-double of the season. OKC can score with the best of them, but lacks on the defensive end in conceding 105.6 PPG. Utah is coming off a 109-100 win over Indiana, led by 30 points from George Hill. Utah isn’t a high-scoring team, but gets the job done with tough defenisve play, the No. 1 ranked unit in allowing only 98.9 PPG. I’ll point out though that the Thunder are already a perfect 2-0 ATS this year as a road dog in the 3.5 to 6.5 points range and 7-3 ATS after a loss by ten points or more, while Utah is just 8-11 ATS against teams with winning records and only 15-16 ATS against good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. This is a tough matchup. For both teams. I’m expecting a highly competitive affair, one which will be decided in the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-22-17 | Warriors v. Magic +12 | Top | 118-98 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Orlando Magic (12:05 EST). The 37-6 Golden State Warriors are in Orlando on Sunday afternoon to take on the 18-27 Magic and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I simply feel this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the No. 1 ranked Warriors, who come in off their sixth straight win, most recently a satisfying 125-108 road victory over Houston on Friday. Orlando is going to be the “hungrier” team today in my opinion. The Magic do come in with some postitive momentum, after losing three straight and seven of eight, Orlando got back into the win column with a solid 112-96 win over the Bucks on Friday. The Warriors have the No. 1 offense, but the defense ranks middle of the pack in conceding 105 points a night. Orlando averages only 100 points per night, while conceding 104.7. I’ll point out though that the Warriors are just 1-3 ATS in their last four following a five-game unbeaten streak, while Orlando is 3-1 ATS in their last four after scoring 112 points or more. Golden State may be 17-3 SU on the road, but it’s only 8-11 ATS. With a game tomorrow night in Miami, I think the visitors come into this one a bit distracted and the focused home side keeps it competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-21-17 | Bucks v. Heat -1 | Top | 97-109 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Miami Heat (7:30 EST). The 20-22 Milwaukee Bucks are in Miami to take on the 13-30 Heat and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Milwaukee comes in off a 112-96 road loss in Orlando just last night. Miami on the other hand has shown some life in winning two straight, most recently a 99-95 victory over Dallas on Thursday. The last time these teams played, the Bucks took a 116-108 home win, which of course sets up the revenge scenario for Miami tonight. Milwaukee averages 104.8 PPG and concedes 103.8. The Heat average just 98.6 PPG and allow 102.6. As mentioned above though, Miami has looked a lot better over its last two games And note that Miami is 8-6 ATS this year against clubs with losing records and 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Milwaukee is only 7-12 ATS on the road and just 8-13 ATS against teams with losing records. The Bucks are in a free-fall and they won’t have an easy time tonight in the second game of the back-to-back. I think the home side continues to build momentum and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Miami. Good luck…Larry |
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01-18-17 | Blazers v. Hornets -5 | 85-107 | Win | 100 | 30 h 32 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Charlotte Hornets (7:00 EST). The 18-25 Portland Trailblazers are in Charlotte to take on the 20-21 Hornets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Both teams come in struggling. Portland has dropped two straight on the road, most recently a 108-98 setback to Washington, while Charlotte comes in even more desperate after losing five in a row. The Blazers average 107.9 PPG, but they’re horrible on the defensive end, conceding 110.7 per night. The Hornets average 105 PPG and concede 104. Kemba Walker remains a bright spot for Charlotte, averaging 23 points, while dishing out 5.4 assists. I’ll point out that Portland has struggled in this spot all year for bettors, going just 7-13 ATS when playing the role of underdog and only 6-8 ATS in non-conference games, while Charlotte has excelled by going 12-9 ATS at home this year and 8-6 ATS in non-conference contests. I think the “hungrier” home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Charlotte. Good luck…Larry |
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01-18-17 | Grizzlies +3 v. Wizards | 101-104 | Push | 0 | 30 h 32 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Memphis Grizzlies (7:00 EST). The 25-18 Memphis Grizzlies are in Washington to take on the 21-19 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Memphis is the “hungrier” team in my opinion, it comes in having lost two of its last three, most recently a 108-104 home loss to Chicago on Sunday. Conversely, I think the Wizards come in a bit complacent, as they’ve won five of their last six, most recently a 120-101 win over the Blazers at home on Monday. But if recent history is any precedence, then the Grizzlies have to be loving their chances today as when they faced Washington back on October 30th, they’d pull away for the 112-103 victory at home. The Grizzlies average just 99.6 PPG, but are third overall on the defensive end in conceding just 99.1. Marc Gasol leads the nightly charge with 19.4 points and six boards per contest. The Wizards average 105.8 PPG and concede 105.7. Guard John Wall leads the team with an average of 22.9 points, 10.1 assists and 2.24 steals per contest. I’ll point out though that Memphis is already 12-9 ATS this year against clubs with winning records and 9-7 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, while Washington is just 2-3 ATS this season after a win by ten points or more and just 2-3 ATS as a home fav of three points or less. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the gritty visitors to take this one down to the wire. Play on Memphis. Good luck…Larry |
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01-18-17 | Raptors -6 v. 76ers | Top | 89-94 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:00 EST). The 27-13 Toronto Raptors are in Philadelphia to take on the 13-26 76ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I played against the Raptors last night, and Brooklyn would manage a slim 1-point cover with the large 11-point spread it was afforded. Suffice it to say, i think Toronto bounces back with a much bigger effort this evening. These teams have already played twice and the Raptors have won both easily, winning 122-95 in the first meeting, before a 123-114 win in Philadelphia last month. Toronto has now won three straight and averages 111.3 PPG, while conceding 104.6. DeMar DeRozan is averaging 30.5 PPG this month and is now fifth in the league in scoring at 28.1 PPG. Philadelphia is playing its best basketball of the season, but I still don’t think it will be enough. Despite winning four of their last five, the 76ers still average just 99.5 PPG, while allowing 105.3 I’ll point out that Toronto is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 in the second game of the back-to-back scenario, while Philadelphia is a poor 9-20 in its last 29 divisional contests. Toronto has kicked it up a notch of late, averaging over 120 PPG over its last five. This is a matchup which the 76ers have struggled with and I don’t see anything changing tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-17-17 | Raptors v. Nets +11 | Top | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:35 EST). The 27-13 Toronto Raptors are in Brooklyn to take on the 8-32 Nets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Clearly the Raptors are the better team, but I think they’ll come in a bit complacent in facing the lowly Nets and look for the home side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Toronto most recently hammered the Knicks 116-101 at home on Sunday, while Brooklyn lost its tenth straight in a 137-112 home loss to the Rockets. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as Toronto has won six straight in the series, including both meetings this year. So far Toronto is third in the league in scoring with an average of 111.3 PPG, while ranked 15th on the defensive end in conceding 104.6 The Nets are ranked 14th overall in scoring in posting 105.3 PPG, but are last on the defensive end in conceding 114.9 PPG thus far. I’ll point out that Toronto is just 23-30 ATS in its last 53 after three or more consecutive SU victories, while Brooklyn is 2-1 ATS in its last three as a home dog in the 9.5 to 12 points range. Because of all the reasons listed aboved, I think this is a few too many points to be giving up today. Play on the Nets. Good luck…Larry |
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01-16-17 | Cavs +8 v. Warriors | Top | 91-126 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:00 EST). The 29-10 Cleveland Cavaliers are at Golden State to take on the 34-6 Warriors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Warriors have now lost four straight to the Cavs going back to the Finals when they blew a 3-1 lead. Cleveland won 109-108 at home on Christmas day and I think all signs point to another nail-biter tonight as well. The Cavs snapped a mini two-game slide with a 120-108 OT win in Sacramento on Friday. Newly acquired sharp-shooter Kyle Korver had 18 points off the bench, including 4 of six from range. LeBron James had 16 points and 15 assists. So far Cleveland posts 109.4 PPG, which ranks fourth. The Cavs concede 103.5, which is 11th. The Warriors have won three in a row and average 117.5 PPG, ranked No. 1. The team doesn’t need to be the best on the defensive end, and it isn’t, conceding 105.4 PPG, ranked 21st. I’ll point out though that Cleveland is 4-1-1- ATS in its last six when playing on two days rest and 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 following a SU win of more than ten points, while Golden State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six at home and only 1-7 ATS following a SU victory. There’s something about this rivalry that brings out the best in LeBron James. While I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I think the visitors will at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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01-15-17 | Thunder -1.5 v. Kings | Top | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (9:05 EST). Analysis posted at least 3 hours before game time. |
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01-13-17 | Cavs -6 v. Kings | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 32 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (10:30 EST). The 28-10 Cleveland Cavaliers are in Sacramento to take on the 16-22 Kings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. It’s going to be all hands on deck for the Cavs tonight as they look to snap a two-game slide. The Kings enter off a win which snapped a three-game skid by beating Detroit on Tuesday. After wins over the Nets and Suns, the Cavs lost 100-92 at Utah on Tuesday and then 102-86 at Portland on Wednesday. LeBron James had just 20 points and Kyrie Irving had just 11. Is it time to hit the “panic button” if you’re a Cleveland fan? Of course not. These types of games/stretches happen to even the best of them. For championship teams like the Cavs, it serves as a “wake up call.” DeMarcus Cousins had 24 points, 13 boards and six assists in his teams 100-94 victory over the Pistons. Note though in the three previous losses, he averaged just 18.3 PPG on 17-of-45 shooting. I’m expecting James to lead the drive tonight. Cleveland is too deep and talented and a three-game losing streak would clearly not be acceptable. I’m expecting a rout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-12-17 | Pistons v. Warriors -12.5 | Top | 107-127 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Golden State Warriors (10:35 EST). The 18-22 Detroit Pistons are at Golden State to take on the 33-6 Warriors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Detroit comes in off a 110-94 loss to the Sacramento Kings. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope had 21 points. The Pistsons would go on to allow the Kings to shoot 13 of 24 from behind the arc. Reggie Jackson leads the team with 16.9 points. So far on the season Detroit ranks 24th in the NBA in scoring at 100.1 PPG, while ranked fourth on the defensive end in conceding 100.3. Kevin Durant had 28 points and eight boards in a home win over Miami last time out. Guard Klay Thompson was given the night off in that one. The Warriors shot 45.3 percent from the floor and are now 17-3 in front of the home town crowd this season. Note that Golden State leads the league in scoring at 117.3 PPG. I’ll point out that Detroit is just 8-11 ATS as an underdog this year and just 8-13 ATS on the road, while Golden State is 12-8 ATS this year following a win by ten points or more. The Warriors have gone 5-1 SU in their last six, but are 0-6 ATS in that span. I think that trend finally gets broken today as I simply can’t see the offensively challenged and now road weary Pistons matching pace down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-11-17 | Knicks -2 v. 76ers | Top | 97-98 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the New York Knicks (7:05 EST). The 17-21 New York Knicks are in Philadelphia to take on the 10-25 76ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Knicks are the “hungrier” team in my estimation. The Knicks have lost two in a row and eight of their last nine after falling 110-96 at home to New Orleans on Monday. Conversely, this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the suddenly surging 76ers who have won three of their last four, most recently a 105-95 victory in Brooklyn on Sunday. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Knicks have to be loving their chances to get untracked as they’ve taken five straight and nine of the last ten in the series. New York averages 105.5 PPG and is actually tied for third in the league in rebounding with 45.7 boards per contest. Where the Knicks lack on most nights is on the defensive end of the floor in allowing 108.9 PPG. Carmello Anthony leads the way with 21.9 points and 6.1 boards per game. Philadelphia is 26th in the league in scoring with an average of just 99.2 PPG. It’s 20th in rebounding and ranked 21st on the defensive end in conceding 105.9 PPG. Joel Embiid leads the way for the 76ers with 19.4 points, plus 7.3 boards per game. I’ll point out that New York is 9-4 ATS as a favorite this year and 3-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite, while Philadelphia is just 5-6 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and only 1-4 ATS after a divisional contest. I think desperation breeds motivation and success leads to complacency. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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01-10-17 | Hawks v. Nets +7 | Top | 117-97 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:35 EST). The 21-16 Atlanta Hawks are in Brooklyn to take on the 8-28 Nets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Hawks are poised for a bit of a mental letdown in my opinion after winning six straight, most recently a 97-82 victory in Dallas on Saturday. Conversely, the lowly Nets will be desperate to break a six-game slide, most recently falling 105-95 at home to the 76ers. Brooklyn plays with revenge of course, as it’s lost seven of the last eight in the series, but note that the last time the teams met in New York, the Nets escaped with the 90-88 win on November 17th, 2015. Clearly the Hawks are the better team overall. While just 20th in scoring offense at 102.3 PPG, Atlanta makes up for it on the defensive end in allowing just 102.8. Brooklyn is 15th in league scoring at 105.4 PPG, but last on the defensive end in allowing 114 per contest. I simply feel however that this sets up as a natural letdown/lookahead/trap game for the visitors, who conclude a four game road trip after posting three straight wins, before enjoying three whole nights off and their first game back at home. Brooklyn’s level of desperation will at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-08-17 | Warriors v. Kings +10.5 | Top | 117-106 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Sacramento Kings (9:00 EST). The 31-6 Golden State Warriors are in Sacramento to take on the 15-21 Kings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Warriors look vulnerable in this spot in my estimation after having their four game win streak snapped in a brutal 128-119 OT loss to Memphis on Friday. The Kings on the other hand will be risking life and limb today as they try to break a four-game slide, most recently a 106-98 setback at home to the Clippers on Friday. And to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as Golden State has taken 12 straight in the series. The Warriors own the No. 1 offense in the league, but clearly the team has major issues on the defensive end. The slumping Kings will look to reverse their fortunes and take advantage. Sacramento averages 102.2 PPG and is middle of the pack on the defensive end, allowing 104.6, ranked 16th (the Warriors are ranked 20th). I’ll point out that Golden State is in fact 0-4 ATS in its last four against teams with a losing straight up record, while Sacramento is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 following a straight up loss. Sacramento has Rudy Gay back in the line-up, which is a good boost for a team in need of postive momentum. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think the Kings can take advantage of this still reeling Warriors team and keep it competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-05-17 | Jazz +6 v. Raptors | Top | 93-101 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONF SIDE OF THE MONTH is the Utah Jazz (7:35 EST). The 22-14 Utah Jazz are in Toronto to take on the 23-11 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Toronto returns home after an extended road-trip, there’s no question that this one does indeed set up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Raptors. They lost 110-82 at San Antonio most recently on Tuesday. Utah continues its Eastern road swing and enters off a 115-104 road loss to Boston. Note that the Jazz play with revenge here after falling 104-98 to the Raptors back on December 21st. It was a rare weak defensive effort for Utah in the setback to the Celtics. Overall the Jazz shot a solid 46 percent. The setback snapped a four-game win streak, but Utah still sits in first place in the Northwest division standings. Note that the Jazz average only 99 PPG, while conceding just 94.5, which ranks No. 1 in the league. The Raptors average 110.3 PPG, while conceding 103.4. I’ll point out that Utah is 7-2 ATS this year in revenging a home loss against an opponent and 3-1 ATS after a loss by ten points or more, while Toronto is a deplorable 0-9 ATS after scoring 85 points or less. As mentioned off the top, I think this one sets up as a natural “letdown” spot for the Raptors after returning home from a lengthy road trip. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-16 | Mavs +18 v. Warriors | Top | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Dallas Mavericks (10:35 EST). The Mavericks come to Golden State off a confidence building 101-89 road victory over the Lakers last night and I think they can carry that momentum over here. Am I going to suggest to you to “sprinkle a little” on the money line? Of course not. I simply feel that the high-powered Warriors will “look past” the lowly Mavs today, as the team won’t play again until January 2nd. Golden State averages 117.3 PPG, but is sub-par defensively, ranked in the lower-third in the league on that side of the floor. The hungry Mavs will have their chances tonight. I’ll point out that Dallas is 10-7 ATS in its last 17 against clubs with winning records, while Golden State is interestingly just 1-6 ATS this year against the Southwest divsion and only 6-9 ATS against clubs with losing records. Not surprisingly, the Mavs play with revenge today after losing by 21 at Oracle earlier in the year. The stage is now set for a much more competitive affair in my opinion though, so grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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12-29-16 | Celtics v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:05 EST). The 19-13 Boston Celtics are in Cleveland to take on the 23-7 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I think the C’s finally have a letdown here after winning two straight and six of their last seven, most recently a 113-103 home victory over Memphis on Tuesday. Conversely, the Cavs are looking to start their new win skein after a five game streak was snapped in a 106-90 setback to Detroit on Monday. Note though that most of the Cavs starters were rested in that second game of the back-to-back after their epic come from behind 109-108 victory over the Warriors on Christmas Day (I had Cleveland in that one, part of my 5-0 Christmas Day sweep of the board). Boston is 12th in the league in scoring with 105.4 PPG and 14th on the defensive end in conceding 103.3. Cleveland is fourth in league scoring with an average of 110.1 PPG and 13th overall defensively by conceding 103 PPG. I think it’s also important to point out that the Cavs rank second in three point shooting with 39.8 percent from behind the arc. And note the the C’s are just 3-5 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog, while the Cavs are 5-1 ATS this season after a division game and 5-3 ATS when playing with two days of rest. With a much “easier” game at home tomorrow night against the Heat, I think the visitors get caught looking ahead and the defending champs step up and take full advantage. Play on the Cavaliers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-28-16 | Raptors v. Warriors -10 | Top | 111-121 | Push | 0 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Golden State Warriors (10:35 EST). The 22-8 Toronto Raptors are in Golden State to take on the 27-5 Warriors tonight and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Toronto has been playing great, but I think is primed for a letdown here after winning four in a row and eight of its last nine. The Warriors on the other hand look to bounce back and make a statement after a tough 109-108 Christmas Day loss in Cleveland (I had the Cavs in that one, part of a 3-0 NBA X-Mas day sweep and an overall 5-0 holiday card!). The Raptors were rolling right along on a seven game win streak before then falling to the Cavaliers at home a couple of weeks ago and now they face the best team in the West. It’s a very similar situation. Also note, with a very winnable game tomorrow night in Phoenix, Toronto could even elect to rest some of its starters if this one gets out of reach. I’ll point out that Toronto is just 2-3 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Golden State is (not surprisingly), 14-10 ATS this season against poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest and also 6-4 ATS after a non-conference game. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-27-16 | Jazz -4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* 33-Club Play is on the Utah Jazz (10:30 EST). The 18-13 Utah Jazz are in LA to take on the 12-22 Lakers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitor. Utah looks to get back on track after dropping three straight, most recently a 104-98 home loss to Toronto on Friday. The Lakers though look primed for an immediate return to mediocrity after managing a 111-102 Christmas Day “home” win over the Clippers. If recent history is any precedence, then the Jazz have to be loving their chances for a bounce back performance tonight as they’ve won six of the last seven in the series, including the first two meetings this year, the most recent a 107-101 win in LA back on December 5th. Utah is is ranked 24th in the league in scoring at 99.1 PPG, but is No. 1 in scoring defense in conceding just 95.2. George Hill is one of four players which average double figures with 20 points plus 4.2 assists per contest. I think it’s worthy to note that despite struggling on the offensive end so far this season, the Jazz are eighth in the league in three point shooting at 36.3 percent. LA is ranked 16th in the league in scoring at 104.5 PPG, but is brutal on the defensive end, conceding 110.6 PPG, ranked 27th overall. Lou Williams leads the way with 18.7 points and 3.2 assists per game. I’ll point out that Utah is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game, while LA is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten when playing on one days rest and only 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU victory. I think the stage is set for the hungry Jazz to get back on track with a convincing effort against the consistently inconsistent Lakers. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-26-16 | Pacers +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 85-90 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Indiana Pacers (8:00 EST). The 15-16 Indiana Pacers are in Chicago to take on the 14-15 Chicago Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I played against the Bulls on Christmas Day and they’d go on to lose badly in San Antonio last night. Suffice it to say, I think the visitors can take advantage of the schedule and at the very least, take this one down to the wire. If recent history is any precedence, then the Pacers have to be loving their chances tonight as they’d beat the Bulls 111-94 at home back on November 5th. Let’s face it, both teams are really struggling right now. Indiana is paced by Paul George, who averages 21.7 points and seven boards per contest. Chicago got out to a great start, but has since come crashing back down to Earth. Jimmy Butler leads all scorers with an average of 24.4 PPG. The Bulls do average 101 PPG, but are ranked last in the league in three-point shooting percentage at 30.8. I’ll point out that Indiana is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five when playing with three or more days rest, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS this year as a home fav in the two to six points range and only 5-9 ATS against teams with losing records. The Pacers are the “fresher” team and I think that’ll be the difference maker today. Play on Indiana. Good luck…Larry |
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12-25-16 | Wolves v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 100-112 | Win | 100 | 36 h 3 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the OKC Thunder (8:00 EST). If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know that I base my picks on many different criteria. For this particular selection though we’re keeping it simple. OKC has been on a big role of late, riding the amazing play of versatile swingman Russell Westbrook and when it faced the Wolves on November 25th, it would come away with a relatively simple 112-92 victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a repeat performance here. Minnesota had won three of its last four before a 109-105 setback to the Kings in its last game and with a home contest against Atlanta tomorrow night, I think the visitors come in flat on Christmas day. And from a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up beautifully for the home side as Minnesota is just 7-10 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and only 6-9 ATS against teams with winning records, while OKC is 5-1 ATS as a home fav of 3.5 to six points and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 105 points or more. I’m expecting a rout from start to finish, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-25-16 | Bulls v. Spurs -8 | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (5:00 EST). The 14-15 Chicago Bulls are in San Antonio on Chistmas Day to take on the 24-6 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Bulls have lost five of their last six, most recently a listless 103-91 setback at Charlotte on Friday. The Spurs enter on the other end of the spectrum, coming off their sixth win in their last seven games by stompging the Trailblazers 110-90 on Friday. Note that San Antonio plays with revenge today as well after falling 95-91 in Chicago back on December 8th. Chicago enters 23rd in the league in scoring at 101 points per game and sixth overall in scoring defense in conceding 99.7 PPG. I’ll also point out that Bulls are last in the league in three pointers in averaging just six per game. The Spurs rank 18th overall in scoring offense at 104.1 PPG, while being ranked third in scoring defense in conceding 97.9. And note, San Antonio ranks No. 1 in the league with a solid 40.8 percent shooting from range. Also note that Chicago is 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road and 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing on one days rest, while San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in its last six after scoring 100 points or more in its previous contest. With the national spot light in San Antonio on Christmas Day, I’m expecting the deeper and battle tested Spurs to find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-25-16 | Warriors v. Cavs +3.5 | 108-109 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the Cleveland Cavaliers (2:30 EST). The 27-4 Golden State Warriors are in Cleveland to take on the 22-6 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I simply feel that home floor can’t be overlooked in this one. Christmas Day games almost always favor the home side. Besides, Golden State looks poised for a letdown here after winning seven straight, most recently a 119-113 road victory over Detroit. Cleveland has won four straight, most recently a 119-89 destruciton of Brooklyn at home on Friday. The Cavs will also be extra motivated today to atone for a 132-98 setback to the Warriors in Cleveland on January 18th, 2016. Golden State has the No. 1 offense at 117.5 PPG, but the defense is poor, conceding an average of 104.1 PPG, ranked 16th overall. Cleveland is the No. 4 offense at 110.9 PPG, while ranked 1th overall on the defense end in conceding 102.7 PPG. I’ll point out though that Golden State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six road games and 0-4 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game, while Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in its last nine after scoring 100 points or more and 7-1 ATS in its last eight following a SU victory. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-16 | Hawks +4 v. Nuggets | Top | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Hawks (9:05 EST). Denver is just 12-17 but looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after winning three of its last four. Atlanta is 14-15 on the year, but sits just two games back in its division. The Hawks are interestingly just 1-6 in their last seven home games, most recently falling 92-84 to the Wolves. So far Atlanta averages 102 points per game. Big man Dwight Howard hasn’t been in the line-up the last two games, but Paul Millsap is still a force to be reckoned with, he had 18 points, seven assists, ten boards and two steals in the humbling setback to Minnesota. The Nuggets had their mini three-game win skein snapped in a 119-102 blowout loss at the hands of the Clippers. Will Barton was a bright spot with 22 points. Denver has been decent offensively, but its defense has been atrocious, conceding a whopping 109.7 PPG, which ranks its 27th overall. I’ll point out that Atlanta is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog, while Denver is just 12-20 ATS in its last 32 when playing with two days of rest and and just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as a home fav of 3.5 to six points. I think that the Hawks are the more desperate team tonight. Denver’s little run is over and once momentum is lost, it’s very difficult to flip a switch and get it back. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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12-21-16 | Rockets v. Suns +5.5 | Top | 125-111 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Phoenix Suns (9:00 EST). The 21-7 Houston Rockets are in Phoenix to take on the 8-20 Suns and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Houston enters off a 111-109 OT win over the Wolves on Saturday and then fell 102-100 at home to the Spurs just last night. It’s the opportunity that the hungry Suns have been waiting for and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for Phoenix to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Houston is an offensive juggernaut in averaging 113.1 PPG, ranked second only to the Warriors. The defense though is poor, conceding 105.8 PPG, which is 20th overall. Phoenix can score with the best of them, averaging 106.4 PPG, which ranks it ninth overall. Like the Rockets though, the weak point for the Suns comes on the defensive end where they concede 113.1, ranked 29th in the league. I’ll point out though that Houston is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as a road fav in the 3.5 to six points range, while Phoenix is already 3-1 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU losses, 6-4 ATS against teams with winning records and 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog in the 3.5 to six points range. For all the reasons listed above, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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Larry Ness NBA Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-18-17 | Bulls +6 v. Celtics | 111-97 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show | |
04-17-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -10.5 | Top | 82-96 | Win | 100 | 35 h 48 m | Show |
04-17-17 | Pacers +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 32 h 9 m | Show |
04-16-17 | Thunder v. Rockets -7 | Top | 87-118 | Win | 100 | 78 h 23 m | Show |
04-16-17 | Bulls +8 v. Celtics | Top | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 76 h 39 m | Show |
04-16-17 | Hawks v. Wizards -5 | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 70 h 20 m | Show | |
04-15-17 | Jazz +6 v. Clippers | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 56 h 56 m | Show |
04-15-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -9 | Top | 82-111 | Win | 100 | 53 h 22 m | Show |
04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -6.5 | 97-83 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 47 m | Show | |
04-15-17 | Pacers +9 v. Cavs | 108-109 | Win | 100 | 48 h 12 m | Show | |
04-12-17 | Mavs v. Grizzlies -6 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
04-10-17 | Wizards -2.5 v. Pistons | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
04-09-17 | Cavs -1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
04-08-17 | Heat v. Wizards -6 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
04-06-17 | Wolves v. Blazers -6 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show |
04-05-17 | Cavs +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 114-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
03-31-17 | Pacers +7 v. Raptors | Top | 100-111 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 22 m | Show |
03-30-17 | Cavs -6 v. Bulls | Top | 93-99 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
03-29-17 | Wizards v. Clippers -5 | Top | 124-133 | Win | 100 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
03-29-17 | Bucks v. Celtics -8 | Top | 103-100 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 46 m | Show |
03-28-17 | Wizards v. Lakers +9 | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
03-27-17 | Thunder v. Mavs +1 | Top | 92-91 | Push | 0 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
03-27-17 | Cavs v. Spurs -4 | 74-103 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show | |
03-27-17 | Magic v. Raptors -9 | 112-131 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
03-25-17 | Knicks +15.5 v. Spurs | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
03-24-17 | Kings +17.5 v. Warriors | Top | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
03-24-17 | Pelicans v. Rockets -7 | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show | |
03-24-17 | Cavs -3 v. Hornets | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show | |
03-22-17 | Knicks v. Jazz -10 | Top | 101-108 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 60 m | Show |
03-22-17 | Hawks v. Wizards -7 | 100-104 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 30 m | Show | |
03-22-17 | 76ers v. Thunder -10.5 | 97-122 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show | |
03-18-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +3.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
03-17-17 | Rockets v. Pelicans +5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
03-16-17 | Thunder v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 123-102 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
03-15-17 | Bucks v. Clippers -8 | Top | 97-96 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
03-15-17 | Grizzlies v. Bulls | 98-91 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
03-15-17 | Blazers +10.5 v. Spurs | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
03-12-17 | Heat v. Pacers -4 | Top | 98-102 | Push | 0 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
03-11-17 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -5 | 107-90 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 21 m | Show | |
03-11-17 | Knicks +6 v. Pistons | 92-112 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
03-09-17 | Spurs v. Thunder +3 | Top | 92-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
03-07-17 | Lakers +10 v. Mavs | Top | 111-122 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
03-06-17 | Celtics v. Clippers -5 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 31 h 18 m | Show |
03-06-17 | Pacers v. Hornets -3.5 | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 29 h 49 m | Show | |
03-04-17 | Nets v. Blazers -11 | Top | 116-130 | Win | 100 | 30 h 37 m | Show |
03-04-17 | Wolves +8.5 v. Spurs | 90-97 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
03-04-17 | Pistons -5 v. 76ers | 136-106 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show | |
03-03-17 | Nets v. Jazz -13.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
03-03-17 | Raptors +5 v. Wizards | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
03-02-17 | Warriors -6.5 v. Bulls | Top | 87-94 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 60 m | Show |
02-27-17 | Warriors -13.5 v. 76ers | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
02-25-17 | 76ers v. Knicks -4.5 | Top | 109-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
02-24-17 | Heat v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 108-90 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
02-23-17 | Knicks +10.5 v. Cavs | Top | 104-119 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
02-15-17 | Hawks +2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 84-99 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
02-15-17 | Blazers v. Jazz -7 | 88-111 | Win | 100 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
02-15-17 | Spurs -10.5 v. Magic | 107-79 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
02-14-17 | Kings v. Lakers +1 | Top | 97-96 | Push | 0 | 32 h 42 m | Show |
02-13-17 | Clippers v. Jazz -7 | Top | 88-72 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
02-13-17 | Magic +8 v. Heat | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
02-13-17 | 76ers v. Hornets -8.5 | 105-99 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
02-09-17 | Jazz v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
02-08-17 | Heat v. Bucks -2 | Top | 106-88 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
02-08-17 | Jazz v. Pelicans +4 | Top | 127-94 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
02-07-17 | Magic v. Rockets -11 | Top | 104-128 | Win | 100 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
02-05-17 | Clippers +6 v. Celtics | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
02-04-17 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Wizards | Top | 91-105 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
02-03-17 | Grizzlies v. Thunder -1.5 | Top | 102-114 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
02-01-17 | 76ers v. Mavs -6 | Top | 95-113 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
01-31-17 | Hornets +3 v. Blazers | Top | 98-115 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
01-30-17 | Pistons +7 v. Celtics | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
01-30-17 | Nets +9.5 v. Heat | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
01-27-17 | Kings +4 v. Pacers | 111-115 | Push | 0 | 28 h 50 m | Show | |
01-26-17 | Pacers +4 v. Wolves | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
01-25-17 | Heat v. Nets +4 | Top | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
01-23-17 | Thunder +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
01-22-17 | Warriors v. Magic +12 | Top | 118-98 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
01-21-17 | Bucks v. Heat -1 | Top | 97-109 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
01-18-17 | Blazers v. Hornets -5 | 85-107 | Win | 100 | 30 h 32 m | Show | |
01-18-17 | Grizzlies +3 v. Wizards | 101-104 | Push | 0 | 30 h 32 m | Show | |
01-18-17 | Raptors -6 v. 76ers | Top | 89-94 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
01-17-17 | Raptors v. Nets +11 | Top | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
01-16-17 | Cavs +8 v. Warriors | Top | 91-126 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
01-15-17 | Thunder -1.5 v. Kings | Top | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
01-13-17 | Cavs -6 v. Kings | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 32 h 32 m | Show |
01-12-17 | Pistons v. Warriors -12.5 | Top | 107-127 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
01-11-17 | Knicks -2 v. 76ers | Top | 97-98 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
01-10-17 | Hawks v. Nets +7 | Top | 117-97 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
01-08-17 | Warriors v. Kings +10.5 | Top | 117-106 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
01-05-17 | Jazz +6 v. Raptors | Top | 93-101 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
12-30-16 | Mavs +18 v. Warriors | Top | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
12-29-16 | Celtics v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
12-28-16 | Raptors v. Warriors -10 | Top | 111-121 | Push | 0 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
12-27-16 | Jazz -4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
12-26-16 | Pacers +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 85-90 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
12-25-16 | Wolves v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 100-112 | Win | 100 | 36 h 3 m | Show |
12-25-16 | Bulls v. Spurs -8 | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show | |
12-25-16 | Warriors v. Cavs +3.5 | 108-109 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show | |
12-23-16 | Hawks +4 v. Nuggets | Top | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
12-21-16 | Rockets v. Suns +5.5 | Top | 125-111 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 3 m | Show |