11-03-18 |
Iowa v. Purdue -2.5 |
|
36-38 |
Loss |
-106 |
27 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Purdue Boilermakers (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 3:30 ET: Game #324
We really like this spot for the Boilers. Over the last month, we’ve been watching both of these teams very closely. We’ve felt that Iowa was overrated. They had won 3 straight games heading into last week’s loss @ Penn State. Their wins during that stretch came against Minnesota, Indiana, and Maryland. Their game prior to that run they lost by 11 points at home to a Wisconsin team that simply isn’t at the level they’ve been the past few years. Last week they lost @ PSU 30-24. A Nittany Lion team that is also down this year having lost 2 of their prior 3 games with their only win during that stretch coming @ Indiana despite getting outgained by nearly 140 yards. The Hawks were fairly fortunate last week as they scored on 2 safeties and a pick 6. Thus nearly half of their points vs the Lions were scored by the defense. Even with that they still lost. So Iowa has beat up on bad teams and lost to 2 marginal teams over their last 5 games. On top of that, last week’s game was huge for the Hawkeyes. It was a statement type game for them as they went on the road against a national name team hoping to pick up a good win. Off that loss we expect a bit of a letdown from them on the road for the 2nd straight week. Speaking of the road, Iowa has been away from home a lot as of late. This will be their 4th road game in the last 5 weeks. Not ideal for the Hawkeyes. Purdue has been underrated in our mind. We took them a few weeks ago as a big underdog vs Ohio State and the Boilers dominated that game on their way to a 49-20 win. With head coach Jeff Brohm still building the program, it wasn’t a surprise they laid an egg last week @ Michigan State coming off their OSU win. After losing their first 3 games by a combined 9 points, this Purdue team has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss being last week’s clunker @ MSU. The offense has been playing great scoring 30+ points in 5 of their last 6 including topping 40 points 3 times. Now back at home we expect a great game out of the Boilermakers and we’ll lay this small number. Look for a blowout home win for the Boilermakers in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.
|
11-03-18 |
Nebraska v. Ohio State -18.5 |
|
31-36 |
Loss |
-106 |
24 h 1 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at Noon ET: Game #334
Nebraska enters this game off an easy win versus an FCS team so they actually were able to rest starters in that one after half-time. However, though the Cornhuskers will be somewhat rested here, the Buckeyes are not only fully rested (off bye week) but also very angry after their loss to Purdue two weeks ago. Keep in mind, the Boilermakers have a very potent offense this season and Ohio State found that out first-hand in the loss at Purdue. Though the Boilermakers piled up 539 yards in that game, the Buckeyes actually outgained them! With that said, the 29 points margin of defeat was certainly quite deceiving. In any event, the fact now is that this Ohio State team has had extra time to build up their aggression in terms of a huge response in this game. Keep in mind the Buckeyes defense had allowed an average of just 17 points per game over a 6-game stretch that preceded the loss at Purdue. Also, Ohio State is 4-0 ATS in their 4 meetings with Nebraska that have come since the Cornhuskers moved into the Big Ten. In fact, the last 3 Buckeyes wins over Nebraska have come by an average margin of 42 points per game! Nebraska is allowing 200 rushing yards per game in Big Ten action this season and the Buckeyes are going to respond after a very rare horrible effort on the ground versus Purdue. This is the Buckeyes only home game over a period of 5 weeks so you know they are looking to make the most of it. On the Big Ten road, the Huskers lost games to Michigan and Wisconsin by an average margin of 31.5 points per game and we fully expect this one to be decided in the 30 point range as well! Look for a blowout home win for the deservedly heavy-favorite Buckeyes in this early Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.
|
11-02-18 |
Colorado +3 v. Arizona |
|
34-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Colorado Buffaloes (+) over Arizona Wildcats, Friday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #319
The Buffaloes have now lost 3 straight after a 5-0 start to the season. While road losses at USC and Washington were not unexpected, the home loss to Oregon State last week certainly was. Colorado actually led that game 31-3 before allowing the Beavers to outscore them 31-3 the rest of the way! Oregon State then won the game in overtime. This type of result (blowing a 28 point lead at home) is going to bring out a huge effort from the Buffaloes here. Consider it "lesson learned" for Colorado and the Buffaloes are now catching the Wildcats at the perfect time to get a road win. Arizona is off a huge upset over Oregon as a home dog of more than a TD! The Wildcats have won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and that includes an upset of the Buffaloes at Boulder last year. That said, now it is payback time and it is Colorado's turn for revenge after the Wildcats got their big revenging win (versus the Ducks) last week. Basically Arizona played the "perfect game" last week and it is often after games like those that teams fall very flat in their next game. As for the Buffaloes, there is no way they'll be flat after last week's result versus the Beavers. In terms of technical support here, there is plenty as the Wildcats are 2-6 ATS when at home and facing a team playing with revenge. Colorado is 9-1 ATS when on the road and playing with revenge. The visitor is also 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these teams! Additionally, the Buffaloes are a perfect 5-0 ATS when off an ATS loss by a double digit margin! We'll grab the undervalued road team in this Friday late night match-up.
|
11-01-18 |
Temple v. Central Florida OVER 60.5 |
|
40-52 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 29 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Temple Owl at Central Florida Knights, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #313
Even though Knights QB McKenzie Milton is listed as questionable for this game, his back-up is a very capable option for UCF. The 6'3 230 lb has the size and skills necessary to give the Owls defense all sorts of trouble here. Where Temple does hold an edge here however, is with their offense over the Knights defense as well and that is even if RB Ryquell Armstead does not play. That's because the Owls can still attack this Knights D early and often through the air. Take note that UCF only gave up 10 points last week but they allowed nearly 500 yards. Of course give the Knights credit for notching 5 turnovers in that game but you can see that Central Florida definitely had trouble getting stops other than through the good fortune of turnovers. In their prior game UCF also had allowed close to 500 yards and, earlier this season in a home game versus Florida Atlantic, the Knights gave up 447 yards! As you can tell, the Central Florida defense leaves a lot to be desired but their offensive production certainly deserves merit. UCF is averaging 44.4 points and 537.1 yards per game this season. Temple is 8-4 to the over as an underdog and, per our computer math model, another over is on tap in this one down in Orlando tonight. Bet the over in this early Thursday evening match-up.
|
10-30-18 |
Kent State +1 v. Bowling Green |
|
35-28 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Kent State Golden Flashes (+) over Bowling Green Falcons, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #303
Both of these teams are having tough seasons but Bowling Green has already endured a coaching change (have an interim as head coach was fired a couple weeks ago) and certainly the Falcons appear to be the lesser team at this point in the season. While both teams have struggled on defense, the Golden Flashes have allowed 27.3 points per game their last 3 games while Bowling Green has allowed at least 35 points in every game this season. In fact, the Falcons are allowing an average of 47.8 points per game on the year! Bowling Green is 1-6 ATS as a home fave of 3 or less points. Kent State is 4-2 ATS in games played on turf this season and 2 of the Golden Flashes last 3 losses have come by just a single point. While Kent State has been on the verge of victory twice in their three most recent games, the Falcons have been outscored by an average of 22.2 points per game this season and their slimmest margin of defeat has been 7 points. We'll grab the undervalued road team in this Tuesday evening match-up.
|
10-27-18 |
Texas v. Oklahoma State +3.5 |
Top |
35-38 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #180
Oklahoma State is a disappointing 4-3 on the season but they have a chance to put all of that behind them on Saturday night as the face 6th rated Texas in prime time on Saturday night. It’s homecoming and the Cowboys are honoring the great RB Barry Sanders who will be in the house. Okie State used their bye week to get healthy and focus on some of the basics after losing 3 of their last 4 games. We’re told they’ve had two great weeks of practice heading into this game and should be at their best. OSU is off a bad performance @ KSU two weeks ago losing 31-12 as an 8-point favorite. A week before that they lost at home to a very good Iowa State team in a game that went down to the wire. They had plenty of motivation heading into their bye and we expect them to play very well at home Saturday night. Texas is a bit overrated in our opinion. They’re decent but not great. Not a top 10 type team in our opinion. They have played 7 games this season (6-1 record) and 5 of those games have been one score games. The Horns have not played a true road game in nearly a month and have played only 2 all season, losing @ Maryland and winning @ KSU 19-14 scoring on a punt return and a safety in that game. They have also had a week off but we wouldn’t be surprised if the players are a bit full of themselves so to speak after a 6 game winning streak and their high ranking which has been a long time coming for Texas. They have a huge game at home on deck vs West Virginia as well so facing this struggling OSU team might not bring their peak effort. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger will play here but has a bad throwing shoulder so the playbook might be limited for the Horns. UT has covered only once as a favorite this year and they are 1-6 ATS in that role dating back to last season. OSU’s last home win was a shellacking of a very good Boise State game 44-21 back in September. They have struggled since but we have a feeling this is a circle the wagons game for them coming off a bye and expect a supreme effort. This becomes a huge game for their bowl eligibility with 3 of their final 4 games coming on the road. OSU has controlled this series as of late winning 4 of the last 5 so they will have plenty of confidence coming into this one. Take Oklahoma State at home.
|
10-27-18 |
Washington State v. Stanford -2.5 |
Top |
41-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
28 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford Cardinal (-) over Washington State Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #162
The Cardinal lost last year at Washington State but there is more to this revenge situation than just that. The Cougars went down to Stanford and blasted the Cardinal 42-16 two years ago. That embarrassing home loss is one that deserves payback and this is the perfect spot for it. The Cougars are an amazing 7-0 ATS this season so they are becoming a popular choice with bettors right now. We all know what happens when a team becomes too popular as it is then that the value erodes away. In this case the Cardinal are now down to a 2.5 point choice as of mid-day Friday and this is a Stanford team that is 21-4 SU the last 25 times they've been favored. Also, when the Cardinal are involved in a game where their line range is between +3 and -3, they are 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS. The Cougars are a long-term 2-5 ATS as a road dog of 3 points or less. In games played on grass, which tends to slow down Mike Leach's offense, Washington State is 2-4 ATS with one of the few such covers being the game at Stanford two years ago. Again, payback time. Although Cardinal RB Bryce Love is questionable for this game he certainly has not had a big season and the sum production of the two running backs who have filled in for him when has not been available is very nearly equal to Love's production on the season. In other words, the Love injury status is merely serving to give even more value here as it is also helping to keep this line low. On the season, Stanford has played a tougher schedule and, even with that, the Cardinals are allowing just 20.7 points per game while the Cougars are allowing 23.3 points per game. This is a huge game in the PAC-12 North as both teams have just one loss like Washington does. Next week Stanford is at Washington and so the Cardinal know that they control their own destiny. Fulfilling their immediate goal of finishing at the top of the PAC-12 North begins here with a big revenging home win over a Cougars team that is simply over-rated at this point in time. The only road wins that the Cougars have this season were at Wyoming and Oregon State. Those teams entered this week with a combined record of 3-12 this season. This is the toughest challenge Washington State has had since their road loss at USC and our math model forecast says they are losing on the road again here. Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday evening PAC-12 match-up.
|
10-27-18 |
South Florida v. Houston -7.5 |
|
36-57 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Houston Cougars (-) over South Florida Bulls, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #184
When an opening line makes you scratch your head, you know you're onto something! The point in this exact instance is that the Cougars were as large as a 9 point favorite when lines first came out for this one even though it is South Florida that is undefeated on the season and it is the Bulls that are the ranked team! Of course the underdog has attracted some attention here as a result but this is certainly no "mistake" by the odds maker. The fact is that Houston has faced a tougher schedule in comparison with South Florida and the Bulls continue to be overvalued by the betting markets. That is evident by the fact that USF is on a 1-4 ATS skid. Also note that Houston has won 3 straight meetings with the Bulls plus the Cougars are looking to take advantage of their only home game in a 4-week span while South Florida could be a bit "gassed" as USF is playing their 3rd road game in the past 4 weeks. The Bulls certainly were unimpressive last week as they barely got by one of the worst teams in FBS (Connecticut) and that game was at South Florida! When USF is a dog of more than 5 points and playing with revenge the Bulls are 2-8 ATS their last 10. Look for a home blowout in this Saturday afternoon AAC match-up.
|
10-27-18 |
Georgia -6.5 v. Florida |
|
36-17 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Georgia Bulldogs (-) over Florida Gators, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #167
Both teams are off a bye week entering this week's annual neutral site game between these SEC foes. The difference for these teams is what happened in the prior week. Prior to their bye the Gators won and have now won 5 straight games while the Bulldogs lost and that ended Georgia's 6-game win streak. That means you're going to see a huge effort from Georgia this week. Yes, Florida has revenge from a bad loss to the Bulldogs last year but the difference will again prove to be the ground game. The Bulldogs had a rare "off" performance versus LSU as the Tigers ran all over them. Prior to that game Georgia had allowed an average of just 113 rushing yards per game on the season. Florida entered their win over Vandy (before the bye) having allowed 172.5 rushing yards per game this season. Just like last year, look for the Bulldogs to again win the battle in the trenches. The Gators are on a 3-8 ATS run as an underdog. Georgia is 6-1 ATS in games played on a neutral field and the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS when off a loss in SEC action. Look for a rout win for the favored Bulldogs in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.
|
10-27-18 |
Oregon State v. Colorado OVER 62 |
|
41-34 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 17 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Oregon State Beavers @ Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 3 PM ET: Game #153
Beautiful weather in Boulder, Colorado for this one as normally late October weather there is much different than the unseasonably mild temperatures and spectacular conditions expected Saturday afternoon. Of course that is just one of the key factors in support of an over here. The Buffaloes will take advantage of an Oregon State defense that ranks among the worst in the nation as they allow 47.3 points per game and 541 yards per game. What is surprising about the Beavers that not many people realize is they do move the ball quite well on offense. Oregon State is averaging 28 points per game on the season as well as 423.4 total yards per game. Long-term the over is 8-2 when the Beavers are a road dog of 21.5 or more points. Oregon State is off an under last week as it was a rare poor performance from the offense but this has led to more value this week as the Buffs defense is certainly nothing special. Also, the Beavers were 5-1 to the over prior to last week's game. Adding to the value here is that Colorado has trended under all season long but it does not make sense based on the production the offense has had this season and in looking at the numbers on defense since they had a strong opening games versus Colorado State in Week 1. The one word here as a result? Value. Look for an all-out shootout in this Saturday afternoon PAC-12 match-up.
|
10-25-18 |
Georgia Tech +3 v. Virginia Tech |
|
49-28 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #111
The Yellow Jackets have won each of the last two meetings between these teams and we look for the streak to reach 3-0 on Thursday evening. The underdog has not only covered the last 5, they've actually won the game outright each of the last five meetings. In fact, the underdog has covered in 12 of the last 13 meetings between the Hokies and the Jackets. Both teams are coming off a bye but the concern with Virginia Tech is a suspect defense. The Hokies were fortunate to beat North Carolina prior to their bye week as Virginia Tech allowed over 500 yards in that game and was outgained by nearly 150 yards by a Tar Heels team that is truly not a very good football team this season. Look for Georgia Tech (352 rushing yards per game) to control this one on the ground and that gives the road dog Yellow Jackets the edge in this one. We'll grab the available points as we do expect a road upset in this Thursday early evening match-up.
|
10-20-18 |
Ohio State v. Purdue +12.5 |
|
20-49 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Purdue Boilermakers (+) over Ohio State Buckeyes, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #334
This is a very dangerous game for the Buckeyes. They simply aren’t playing very well right now while Purdue is playing lights out. OSU wins aren’t looking quite as impressive as we may have originally thought. They came from double digits down to beat TCU which looked great at the time. TCU has since gone on to lose 2 of their next 3 games with their only win coming at home vs Iowa State by just 3 points. The Buckeyes were completely outplayed at PSU (outgained by 100+ yards) and pulled out a 1-point win late. The following week they struggled to pull away from a poor Indiana team a few weeks ago leading by just 8 at half. They pulled away late but it wasn’t an overly impressive performance. Last week they were 30 point favorites vs a Minnesota team that is very young starting a freshman at QB and RB. It was a 9-point game midway through the fourth quarter and the Bucks won by 30-14. Again, not impressive. They are struggling to run the ball averaging 3.2 YPC or less in all 3 of their Big Ten games. Purdue is definitely better than their 3-3 record. They were winless their first 3 games but those losses came by a total of 8 points. They have since won 3 straight games with all 3 coming by at least 13 points. The offense for Purdue is performing at a high level as they’ve averaged 39 PPG over their last 4 games. QB David Blough has been lights out completing 68% of his passes for almost 400 YPG over their last 4 contests. Defensively the Boilers held Illinois, who had rushed for 200+ in every game this year, to just 69 yards on the ground last week. Now facing an OSU team that has struggled to run the ball we think they can make the Buckeyes fairly one-dimensional in this game. Purude has now covered 4 straight games by a combined 64 points. They are undervalued right now. It’s a rare, huge home game at night for them and we think OSU should be put on upset alert in this one. Take the points.
|
10-20-18 |
Vanderbilt v. Kentucky -12 |
|
7-14 |
Loss |
-115 |
30 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Kentucky Wildcats (-) over Vanderbilt Commodores, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #312
When a team is rolling they do not necessarily want a bye but when off a loss it can be a welcome chance to regroup and then come out flying immediately in their very next game. This is precisely what we expect from Kentucky here. The Wildcats were 5-0 on the season but then two weeks ago the Cats faced Texas A & M and lost by 6 as it was clearly Kentucky's worst game of the season. Even with the defeat the Wildcats are allowing just 13.8 points per game on the year. The Cats defense has been rock solid this season while the Commodores come into this game having allowed 35.5 points per game their past 4 games. Vanderbilt's defense has allowed more yardage in their last 4 games than Kentucky's D has allowed this entire season - 6 games! The Commodores are allowing an average of 510.8 yards per game their last 4 games. The Wildcats are giving up just 304.8 yards per game on the year. From a situational perspective, it doesn't get much better than this. Kentucky is off a bye week which followed their very first loss of the season while Vandy has lost 4 of its last 5 games and the only win was by just 4 points against an FCS school. The Commodores were favored by 4 touchdowns in that game and yet won by only 4 points! Vanderbilt is playing their 8th straight week while Kentucky is rested. Also, Vandy is on a 1-10 ATS run against SEC foes as they continue to prove to be outclassed against conference opposition. The Wildcats should dominate the ground game here again versus the Commodores. That was a key in last years win by a 23 point margin for Kentucky and that was on the road! The Wildcats have outgained Vanderbilt 490-201 in rushing yardage the past two meetings. Per our math model forecast, the hungry home favorite to control this one from start to finish as the Cats defense continues to dominate while Vandy's porous D continues to be burned by big plays. Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.
|
10-20-18 |
Mississippi State v. LSU OVER 45 |
Top |
3-19 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 29 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Mississippi State Bulldogs @ LSU Tigers, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #403
This total made an interesting move this week. It opened at 44.5 and even though more than 75% are on the UNDER, it moved up a point. We liked the OVER to begin with and that move definitely signals a play on here. LSU’s offense is playing much better than most give it credit for. They have scored 30+ points in 5 of their 7 games this year. They are perfectly balanced on offense averaging 202 YPG rushing and 202 YPG passing which makes them very tough to defend. Last week against a very good Georgia defense the Tigers put up 36 points and almost 500 yards! We think they’ll do some damage vs a Mississippi State defense that has solid numbers but has played a number of weak offenses including Stephen F Austin, UL Lafayette, Kansas State, and Florida. This will be the most productive offense they’ve faced this season. On the other side of the ball LSU played great last week. They held Georgia to 16 points in a 20 point win. We have a feeling the Tigers put a LOT of emotional effort into that game knowing they were playing a very good Bulldog offense. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if they had a bit of a letdown on that side of the ball. Especially with Alabama on deck after next week’s bye. LSU has been solid defensively but they have given up 21+ points in 3 of their last 5 games. Mississippi State’s offense was rolling early in the season and their totals were mainly set in the high 50’s and low 60’s. They then hit a rough patch on offense vs Kentucky and Florida on back to back weekends but bounced back on that side of the ball last week vs Auburn. The Dogs scored 23 points on 418 yards last week and we look for them to land in that range again this week. Where this total sits right now, the oddsmakers are expecting a final score in the range of 26-19 in favor of LSU. We feel both offenses top those point totals and we take the OVER here. Our math model forecast suggests that you can look for a surprisingly high scoring all out shootout in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.
|
10-20-18 |
Cincinnati v. Temple -3.5 |
|
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Temple Owls (-) over Cincinnati Bearcats, Saturday at Noon ET: Game #314
Cincinnati is a ranked team and the Bearcats are 6-0 SU on the season. Of course this begs the question how can they be an underdog against a 4-3 Temple team? The answer to that is that nothing is ever as easy as it seems on the surface! The fact is that the odds makers are projecting the Cats to suffer their first loss of the season and we are too! Temple has played the tougher schedule in comparison with Cincinnati. Also, the Bearcats lose some momentum with the bye week last week. A team usually doesn't benefit from a bye when they were already rolling in the first place. What a bye usually does in a case like this is actually let some air out of the tires and the team all of the sudden loses their timing (in terms of execution) and suddenly is no longer on a roll. This is the first time this season that the Bearcats will face a team that has a winning record at the time of the match-up. That is certainly noteworthy as Cincinnati went 2-7 ATS (and 0-9 SU!) the past two seasons when facing a team with a winning record! The Owls continue to be a covering machine and that includes going 17-3 ATS (15-5 SU) in their last 20 games versus American Athletic Conference opponents. The Owls have allowed just 108 passing yards per game their past 5 games. Temple won each of the last two meetings versus Cincinnati by an average margin of 15 points per game. Our math model is forecasting another rout win in this match-up! Look for a home blowout in this very early Saturday afternoon AAC match-up.
|
10-19-18 |
Air Force -10 v. UNLV |
|
41-35 |
Loss |
-106 |
7 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Air Force Falcons (-) over UNLV Rebels, Friday at 10 PM ET: Game #309
Even though Falcons QB Donald Hammond III got hurt in the most recent game, the Air Force offense moved the ball just fine with Isaiah Sanders at the helm. Just about any offense in College Football can move the ball well against this porous UNLV defense. The Rebels have allowed an average of 54.5 points per game their past two games and that is bad news for UNLV fans because their offense is having major issues without QB Armani Rogers. The Rebels are on a 1-8 ATS run as a home dog and get blasted again here. Air Force has allowed an average of just 14 points per game their past two games while the Rebels have allowed over 500 yards each of their past two games. Complete mismatch especially with the ground game (Rogers was leading rusher for UNLV). Look for the Falcons to get the cash here. We'll lay the points as we expect a road rout in this Friday late night match-up.
|
10-18-18 |
Stanford v. Arizona State +3 |
|
20-13 |
Loss |
-120 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Arizona State Sun Devils (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #306
Stanford has allowed an average of 36.3 points per game their last 3 games. Arizona State is allowing an average of 21.2 points per game on the season and the Sun Devils have not allowed more than 28 points in a game this season. The Sun Devils ground game on offense is averaging 175.2 rushing yards per game this season and that is more than double the 85.7 rushing yards per game that the Cardinal are averaging. We love taking home dogs that have a great shot at the edge in the all-important departments of defense as well as the ground game! Stanford is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in Weeks Five through Nine of a season. Arizona State is on a 12-4 ATS run in home games and also 7-3 ATS when off a loss against a conference rival. Look for the Sun Devils to get the cash here. We'll grab the points for added insurance but we expect a home upset in this Thursday night match-up.
|
10-13-18 |
Colorado v. USC -6.5 |
Top |
20-31 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC Trojans (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #156
With the Buffaloes at 5-0 on the season, ranked in the top 25, and catching significant points here; of course that is attracting attention within the betting markets as the unranked Trojans are only 3-2 on the season. The key though is in strength of schedule. USC has played a much tougher schedule than Colorado has and the result is superb line value here. The Trojans losses were road losses at Stanford and Texas. The Buffaloes have yet to lose a game but their "toughest" games (based on the lines in those contests) were at Nebraska and versus Arizona State. That is certainly noteworthy as Nebraska is now 0-5 on the season and the Sun Devils have lost 3 of their last 4 games. That said, a game at Southern Cal against a quality Trojans team is certainly a much tougher challenge than hosting ASU and visiting the Huskers (having such an awful season). Also note that the Buffaloes were outgained at Nebraska by a margin of 565 to 395 yards! In other words, Colorado was fortunate to get the win. The Buffs opened the season with a neutral site game against Colorado State and, therefore, this game at USC is just the 2nd true road game for Colorado this season. Considering the Buffaloes, in their first road game of the season, were outgained by 170 yards by a team that is now 0-5 on the season, the Buffs are likely to struggle with the talent level of this Trojans team! Southern Cal is off back to back wins and a bye week. With that said, the Trojans enter this game both rested and confident as they look to make it 3 straight wins in PAC-12 action. USC has won each of the last 7 meetings between these teams (they've met annually since the 2011 season) and the average margin of victory has been 19.4 points per win! Colorado is 1-8 ATS when they are a dog of less than 17 points and playing the first of back to back road games (Buffaloes are at Washington State next week). Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday late night PAC-12 match-up.
|
10-13-18 |
Georgia v. LSU +7.5 |
|
16-36 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* LSU Tigers (+) over Georgia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET Game #198: Many will be set to jump off LSU’s bandwagon after they picked up their first loss of the season last week @ Florida. That result has helped the value here pushing this number above a TD. Last week’s game @ Florida showed a near even stand off on the stat sheet with Florida scoring on an interception return with under 2:00 minutes remaining to salt away the 27-19 win. LSU has been a home dog just 6 times since 2010 and they’ve won half of those games (3) outright. Georgia is a bit overvalued in our opinion. They are undefeated but have yet to be challenged. Their schedule thus far has been fairly weak as this will be by far their toughest test of the season. The Bulldogs have played just 2 road games this year and their most recent one @ Mizzou was a 14 point win with 2 non-offensive TD’s fueling that win in a game that was nearly dead even on the stat sheet. Another key point is UGA has yet to be in a stressful, close game situation due to their fairly easy schedule and we expect them to have some serious adversity for the first time this season in this game. Georgia has never been higher than a 1-point favorite @ LSU and now they are being asked to lay more than a TD. We like LSU to bounce back and play very well this week. We give them a decent shot at the upset so we’ll grab the points.
|
10-13-18 |
Baylor +14.5 v. Texas |
|
17-23 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 58 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Baylor Bears (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #187
Perfect spot to fade the Longhorns as they are off of their huge win in their annual rivalry game with Oklahoma last week. Texas expended a ton of energy in securing the victory as the Horns blew a huge lead against the Sooners. Couple that with the fact that Baylor is out for revenge this season (embarrassed 38-7 in Waco last year) and you can see that the set up here is a great one. The Bears are highly motivated while the Longhorns certainly could come out flat as they have won 5 straight games and might get caught looking ahead to their bye. While Baylor also has a bye on deck there is no way they're looking past the Horns after what happened in last season's 31 point home loss. This is a large line given the situation as well as the fact that the Bears, should they need it, also certainly have "backdoor cover" potential here as their offense is averaging 500 yards per game this season. However, we don't expect this game to come down to needing a backdoor cover as our computer math model forecast has the Bears hanging close throughout this game and actually having a shot at the outright upset. The Longhorns are only 1-3 ATS the last 4 times they've been a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Also, Texas is an ugly 1-10 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points and are facing a team playing with revenge. That system fits perfectly here and we have no doubt about the type of effort the Bears are going to bring in this one! Look for the big road dog to stay well within the number in this Saturday afternoon BIG 12 match-up.
|
10-13-18 |
Washington v. Oregon OVER 57.5 |
|
27-30 |
Loss |
-105 |
25 h 25 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Washington Huskies @ Oregon Ducks, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #159
Beautiful weather at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon for this one and we're expecting a bit of a "track meet" here. The Ducks are averaging 45.6 points per game this season as Oregon has averaged over 500 yards of offense per game. Washington allowed just 24 points last week but the Huskies did give up over 400 yards of offense and that was against a UCLA team that remains winless on the season at 0-5. Now Washington faces a Ducks team that is out for revenge after being embarrassed in each of the last two meetings. Oregon is a different team when Justin Herbert is at QB and healthy. While he and his Ducks teammates are sure to put up a ton of points in this revenge opportunity, the problem with the Ducks is their defense has allowed an average of 54 points to the Huskies the past two seasons. Washington enters this game having scored an average of 32 points per game their last 5 games. The Ducks, as noted above, have been piling up points but the Oregon defense has allowed 412.5 yards per game in PAC-12 games this season. The over is 18-6 in the Ducks last 24 home games! The over is 5-2 in Washington's last 7 October games. This will be the toughest offense the Huskies have faced this season. On the flip side, the Huskies offense will take advantage of a Ducks defense that has been susceptible since conference action began. Oregon is ranked 15th out of 130 teams in terms of offensive efficiency (yards per play) and Washington's offense has piled up points against this Ducks defense each of the last two meetings. Look for an all-out shootout in this Saturday afternoon PAC-12 match-up.
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10-12-18 |
Arizona +13.5 v. Utah |
|
10-42 |
Loss |
-106 |
16 h 4 m |
Show
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ASA 9* Arizona Wildcats (+) over Utah Utes, Friday at 10:00 PM ET - The Utes are off of a big upset win at Stanford last week. Utah also has USC on deck. From a situational perspective, this game certainly sets up as a flat spot for the Utes. Also, Arizona has revenge from losing each of the last two meetings including last season's game which the Wildcats lost at home. The Cats are getting about two touchdowns in this spot and the big dog is offering significant line value. After dropping their first two games this season, Arizona is 3-1 SU and ATS their last 4 games. Even though Utah won last week at Stanford they were outgained in that game. Also, last season's match-up between these teams saw the Utes get outgained by over 100 yards by the Wildcats in a game that had a deceiving final score. We look for Arizona to improve to 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Cats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games with a total set between 49.5 and 52 points. Utah is 1-3 ATS this season in games played on turf. Bet ARIZONA
|
10-11-18 |
Georgia Southern v. Texas State OVER 49 |
|
15-13 |
Loss |
-107 |
27 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* OVER – Georgia Southern @ Texas State, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Both teams run the ball very well and we just don't foresee either defense getting many stops in this game as each of these teams is also allowing a lot of yardage on the ground as well. The Bobcats, other than their lone game versus an FCS foe, have allowed an average of over 200 yards per game on the ground. The Eagles have allowed an average of 185 rushing yards per game their last 3 games. With both teams able to establish the run in this game that serves to open up opportunities downfield in the passing game as the front seven of the defense must respect the running game. That being said, there should be plenty of points in this game and we are getting extra value with this total as it has moved down from the low 50s to the upper 40s. In road games with a total between 42.5 and 49 points, Georgia Southern is 5-0 to the over. In games against teams with a losing record, the Eagles are 8-3 to the over. Texas State is 2-0 to the over in home games this season and, in recent seasons, is on a 6-3 run to the over in games played in Weeks 5 through 9 of a season. The Bobcats are scoring an average of 29 points per game their last 4 games. Georgia State, other than their game against Clemson's D (and Texas State D is at the other end of the spectrum compared to Clemson), has averaged 37 points per game in their other 4 games this season. Bet the OVER in Texas State Thursday.
|
10-09-18 |
Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +10.5 |
|
35-9 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* Arkansas State (+) over Appalachian State, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a case where perception doesn't meet reality. Yes Appalachian State is 5-0 on the season but they've played a much weaker schedule than Arkansas State has. Now, on the road, and in a primetime rare national TV game for Arkansas State at home, the Red Wolves are going to be amped up. Getting double digits at home in a situation like this is a great value and the Red Wolves are 7-0-1 ATS in October games. Also, Arkansas State is 3-1 ATS the last 4 times they've been a dog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. All 3 of those wins were outright upset wins. The Red Wolves pass defense has been great except for when they played Alabama and who stops the Crimson Tide? That said, we feel the Mountaineers are going to struggle to get any type of significant margin in this Tuesday night road game against the Red Wolves. Play ARKANSAS STATE
|
10-06-18 |
Utah v. Stanford -5 |
|
40-21 |
Loss |
-106 |
56 h 27 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Stanford Cardinal (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #364
The questionable status of Bryce Love has resulted in a very favorable line here. Even if he did not play in this game we do not expect this to be a significant factor. Keep in mind the Cardinal have been getting the job done through the air rather than on the ground. 72% of their yardage this season has come via the passing attack and they're hosting a Utah team that allowed 445 passing yards at Washington State last week! This is absolutely a critical game for Stanford as they have a bye week on deck and they want to respond after a dismal effort at Notre Dame last week. After that non-conference game, the Cardinal will be highly motivated for a Pac 12 match-up. Also, from mid-September to late October, this is the only home game for Stanford so they want to make it count to say the least! The Utes, since a road win at Arizona early last season, have gone 2-8 SU in their last 10 Pac 12 games and that includes an 0-2 start this season. Stanford is 12-2 SU in their last 14 regular season games and 9 of the 12 wins have come by 7 points or more. Based on the above, you can see why we're very comfortable laying the points here as this line has been holding at under a touchdown during this week leading up to the game. Lay the points and look for the home team to win in a blowout in this Saturday late night match-up.
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10-06-18 |
LSU -115 v. Florida |
|
19-27 |
Loss |
-115 |
49 h 5 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* LSU Tigers (-) over Florida Gators, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #333
The Gators are off of a huge win last week as it was head coach Dan Mullen's former team, the Bulldogs, that they defeated at Mississippi State. Off of that win as a touchdown underdog, we're not sure the Gators are going to have enough left in the tank to take down the Tigers! LSU has a powerful ground attack and their QB, Joe Burrow, has become more and more comfortable in this offense with each game that he gets under his belt. The Tigers threw for nearly 300 yards in last week's win versus Ole Miss plus LSU ran for nearly 300 yards too. The Tigers have averaged nearly 250 rushing yards the past two weeks and Florida gave up an average of 262.5 rushing yards per game in their first two games this season. They can be run on by a strong ground game and not only does LSU possess that, they also possess an improving passing game that is forcing opponents to respect that as well. While LSU should certainly be able to move the ball quite well here, note that the Tigers defense is allowing just 103 rushing yards per game. Florida has run the ball on 60% of their plays their last 3 games. The Gators prefer to run but are going to have trouble doing that against this LSU defense. The Tigers have won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these teams and this line has gone from LSU near a -3 to nearly a pick'em as of Thursday afternoon. This is offering even more line value with the team that has taken 6 of the last 8 meetings in this series! The Gators are 1-5 ATS when entering a game off back to back straight up and ATS wins. Florida is also 1-4 ATS when off a double digit ATS cover but facing a team off a SU win by a double digit margin. Both of those systems fit here and we also like the fact that Kentucky blasted the Gators by double digits here in Gainesville last month and LSU is entering this game having gone 11-1 SU their last 12 regular season games with the lone loss coming at Alabama. Florida is certainly no Alabama! We expect a road rout in this Saturday afternoon match-up.
|
10-06-18 |
Iowa -7 v. Minnesota |
Top |
48-31 |
Win
|
100 |
39 h 27 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #387
The Hawkeyes can't wait to get on the field for this one. After a tough home loss versus Wisconsin - game was much closer than final score indicates - Iowa has had two weeks to wait for this game because of a bye last week. That said, off of their first loss of the season, the Hawkeyes are extra hungry. One could argue the same fact for the Golden Gophers as Minnesota is off of their first loss of the season too and is coming off of a bye week. However, that is where the comparisons end. For one thing, Iowa played a solid Badgers team and played them tough. Compare this with Minnesota playing a Maryland team that is certainly not a Big Ten powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination and they got blasted by a 29-point margin. A big concern for the Golden Gophers is they allowed over 300 yards rushing in that game. Iowa has a very capable ground attack that is balanced well by a passing attack that has averaged nearly 300 yards per game their past two games. Iowa has a huge edge at the skill positions as Minnesota lost their senior running back early this season and now has much of the running back duties being handled by freshmen plus the Golden Gophers have a freshman QB whom is a walk-on. There is simply no comparison between the talent level of these teams. Also, while Kirk Ferentz is in his 20th year as the head coach at Iowa - longest-tenured head coach among FBS schools in the nation - PJ Fleck is in his just 2nd season with Minnesota and there are still growing pains. Though the Golden Gophers started the season with 3 straight wins, two of those victories came against over-matched New Mexico State and Miami-Ohio. Minnesota went just 2-7 in Big Ten action last season and is now 2-8 in Big Ten games under PJ Fleck after getting demolished by the Terrapins two weeks ago. The 8 losses have come by an average margin of 19 points per defeat. That is very close to what our computer math model is predicting for this game. Iowa is a 1 TD favorite but the forecast is for a blowout by a 3 TD margin. The Hawkeyes are 8-0 ATS the last 8 times they've been a favorite of less than 17 points and they are facing an opponent off of a SU loss by a margin of more than 14 points. That system fits perfectly here! Look for a road rout win in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.
|
10-05-18 |
Utah State v. BYU -2 |
|
45-20 |
Loss |
-108 |
57 h 51 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* BYU (-) over Utah State, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - The Cougars are off a rough game @ Washington losing 35-7. It was a poor performance on both sides of the ball against one of the top teams in the nation so we expect a big effort at home in a game BYU needs to win. They come in with a 3-2 overall record but they’ve also played one of the toughest schedules in the nation thus far already facing the likes of Wisconsin, Arizona, California, and Washington. They are one of just 6 teams in the nation that have already faced 4 Power Five teams. They beat both Wisconsin & Arizona on the road so this team is definitely capable. The one negative we see with this game is they do catch Utah State off a bye which we’re not crazy about. However, USU has played a MUCH easier schedule. They played Michigan State tough in a 7-point loss to open the season. They were a little lucky to stay close in that game as they were outgained by over 100 yards and benefitted from a interception return for TD. Since that game the Aggies have played New Mexico State, Tennessee Tech, and Air Force. So while BYU has been playing a tough slate of teams to prepare them for this spot, USU has been padding their overall stats vs weak opponents. The Aggies offensive numbers are impressive, but the last 3 games they’ve faced the 103rd ranked defense (NMSU), 70th ranked defense (Air Force) and a Tennessee Tech defense that has allowed 51 PPG this year. These two met last year @ Utah State and BYU was a 1-point favorite in that game. Now a much improved BYU team is laying just 2 points at home. The Aggies won last year 40-26 at home but it was a misleading final score as BYU outgained them 396 to 288. BYU had a ridiculous 7 turnovers in that game which led to the USU win. Now Utah State will attempt to beat BYU in consecutive seasons for the first time since the 1974 season! It won’t happen here as the Cougars will be focused and play very well after their worst outing of the season. Lay this small number at home with BYU
|
10-04-18 |
Georgia State v. Troy OVER 54 |
|
20-37 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 24 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* OVER – Georgia State @ Troy, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - The Panthers erupted for 46 points in last week's win and will take advantage of a Trojans defense that has allowed nearly 400 yards per game in their 4 match-ups with FBS schools this season. The issue for Georgia State however is that, prior to beating a struggling UL Monroe team, the Panthers had given up over 500 yards in each of their 3 prior games. This Georgia State defense is unlikely to enjoy much success this week either as Troy comes into this one having averaged 41 points per game their past 4 games. Also, the Trojans have totaled over 450 yards of offense in 3 of their last 4 games. Troy is 4-1 to the over this season. Also, their non-road games (home or neutral field) are on a 6-1 run to the over dating back to last season. With the downward line move on this total it has fallen into our play range as we fully expect plenty of points in this one. Bet the OVER in Troy Thursday.
|
09-29-18 |
Stanford v. Notre Dame OVER 52 |
|
17-38 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 47 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER – Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Stanford Cardinal, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #207
Even though Stanford allowed "only" 31 points against Oregon last week, it certainly could have been more as they gave up 524 yards of offense to the Ducks. Their past two weeks (one against Cal Davis!) the Cardinal have conceded an average of 302 passing yards per game. The Fighting Irish offense is firing on all cylinders after erupting for over 550 yards and 56 points last week at Wake Forest. This is a match-up of undefeated teams both ranked in the Top Ten and we expect the offenses to be in the story in this one. Stanford has plenty of momentum after rallying for the big win at Oregon last week while Notre Dame is seeking revenge for the 38-20 loss at Stanford last season. The Fighting Irish did gain over 400 yards against the Cardinal but were done in by 3 turnovers. In other words, they're in line for much more than 20 points here as they are likely to pile up yardage at home but the issue for Notre Dame will be stopping the Cardinal. This could be a breakout game for Bryce Love as the Irish allowed over 250 yards on the ground last week against the Demon Deacons. Of course Stanford's ability to get the ground game going softens up the defense for then attacking through the air and the Cardinal have already thrown for over 300 yards in wins over Oregon and San Diego State this season. When Stanford is an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points, they've gone 4-0 to the over their last 4. The over is 3-1 in Notre Dame's last 4 games versus Pac-12 opponents. Bet the OVER and expect a back and forth high-scoring battle in this Saturday evening match-up involving Top Ten teams..
|
09-29-18 |
South Carolina +1 v. Kentucky |
Top |
10-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
34 h 51 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) over Kentucky Wildcats, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #141
When you see a ranked team hosting an unranked foe and yet priced in a "pick'em" range it certainly is something worthy of investigation. Of course the markets are enamored with Kentucky right now after seeing them upset Mississippi State last week. However the Bulldogs were caught looking ahead to a big game against Florida (their former coach) and they paid for it with an ugly loss. Prior to this game the Wildcats have looked strong but two of their three prior games were against Central Michigan and Murray State. They're facing a tough South Carolina team that has inexplicably lost 4 straight meetings with the Cats. In other words, revenge is in order here. The Gamecocks have a ton of momentum here as they completely demolished the Commodores in the 2nd half of their game last week at Vanderbilt. Though South Carolina lost by 10 to the Wildcats last season, they actually outgained Kentucky in that game. The Gamecocks have faced the tougher schedule this season and also could have the fresher legs here. The Wildcats will be playing their 5th straight Saturday while South Carolina had a bye two weeks ago on the 15th prior to then pummeling Vanderbilt last week. Kentucky is 20-37 SU (including 3-6 SU in recent seasons) when off of a win over an SEC foe. South Carolina, in games with a line between -3 and +3, has gone 4-1 SU and ATS in recent seasons. The Gamecocks are also 3-1 SU (4-0 ATS) in their last 4 games played on turf. The South Carolina passing attack has been a clear strength this season and will be the difference-maker in this match-up. The Wildcats rely heavily on the run and the Gamecocks actually have been strong against the run but their numbers got skewed by the match-up against Georgia. Of course the Bulldogs are certainly one of the top teams in the nation and note that South Carolina held their other two opponents this season (including Vandy last week) to an average of only 3 yards per carry. With this line currently at -1 on Kentucky but possibly moving higher (the public choice in this match-up) it is also worth nothing that the Wildcats are on a 2-11 ATS run as a favorite! Look for a road rout revenge win in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.
|
09-29-18 |
Florida v. Mississippi State -7 |
|
13-6 |
Loss |
-105 |
34 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Mississippi State Bulldogs (-) over Florida Gators, Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #194
Mississippi State is in bounce back mode after they appeared to look right past Kentucky and lost 28-7 last week as a double digit favorite. While Florida is 3-1 so far this season and has rolled to a 3-1 ATS mark they've been in their preferred role as a favorite. As an underdog the past two seasons the Gators went an ugly 1-9 ATS and that includes 0-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Florida's head coach Dan Mullen is facing his former team and the Bulldogs will have some extra motivation as the message was that he left under the premise the grass was greener on the other side of the fence! The Gators won by 26 at Tennessee last week but actually barely outgained the Volunteers in that game and that is helping to add to the line value in this match-up. The spread had been above 7 but has settled back in at 7 as of early Friday morning. Mississippi State is on a 4-0 ATS run when hosting the Gators. Though these teams have faced very similar schedules early this season, the Bulldogs offense has averaged over 100 yards more than the Florida offense while allowing about 70 yards less per game on the other side of the ball. Take the highly motivated home team that has outperformed this foe on both sides of the ball so far this season and that is ready to respond after that unexpected loss to the Wildcats. Clearly the Bulldogs were looking ahead to this match-up and they'll be ready here. We expect a home blowout in this Saturday early evening match-up.
|
09-29-18 |
Michigan v. Northwestern +15 |
|
20-17 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 23 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Northwestern Wildcats (+) over Michigan Wolverines, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET: Game #210
When off of their regular season bye week, Northwestern is 3-0 ATS their last 3. The Wildcats needed the bye after a disappointing (and highly unexpected) home loss to Akron as a 3-TD underdog. Northwestern did out-gain the Zips by 124 yards and have held each of their last two opponents under 100 yards rushing. The Wildcats did lose RB Jeremy Larkin as he is being forced to retire due to a medical condition but look for them to rally around this factor and have a huge home game performance versus Michigan here. The Wolverines have won 3 straight games by big margins but their schedule has been light since opening up the season with a loss to Notre Dame. That loss to the Fighting Irish dropped Michigan to 7-15 ATS the last 22 times they've been a road favorite and we feel they're getting far too much respect from the betting markets in this match-up. This line has climbed from its opener and is now above the two TD mark (14.5 / 15) as of early Friday morning. Michigan is on a 1-4 ATS run in games played on grass. Northwestern is 3-0 ATS when off B2B straight-up losses and also 15-4 ATS their last 19 in Big Ten action. Excellent home dog value with the Wildcats. Grab the big points and look for the home team to hang tough in this Saturday afternoon match-up.
|
09-28-18 |
Memphis v. Tulane OVER 66 |
|
24-40 |
Loss |
-110 |
31 h 23 m |
Show
|
OVER – Memphis @ Tulane, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - The Tigers offense has scored at least 52 points in 3 of their 4 games this season. The Green Wave, before facing Ohio State last week, had averaged over 400 yards of offense per game so far this season. The Tulane defense is most certainly a weakness as they have allowed nearly 500 yards of offense per game so far this season. The Tigers D allowed 465 yards last week and 35 points and that was at home. Memphis, when on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games, the over is 28-10 long-term including 10-2 in recent seasons. Tulane, in weeks 5 through 9 in a season, are 6-2 to the over their last 8 games. Last year these teams combined for 82 points. This season Memphis games have totaled more than 80 points in 3 of 4 games. That is why, though this O/U is a big number, it is very likely to prove to not be nearly high enough. The Tigers offense is one of the tops in the nation for efficiency as they are averaging 8.7 yards per play on offense. Bet the OVER in Tulane Friday.
|
09-27-18 |
North Carolina v. Miami-FL -17.5 |
|
10-47 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 27 m |
Show
|
Miami Hurricanes (-) over North Carolina Tar Heels at 8 PM ET Thursday - The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these ACC foes. Even though Miami has Florida State on deck, the Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 ACC openers. The Canes have been very strong on defense this season and while the North Carolina defense has struggled badly. With the line opening as high as 21.5 and now down to as low as 17.5, there is additional value here as this one does have the makings of a home blowout. The Tar Heels finally got into the win column last week versus Pittsburgh so this is the perfect spot to fade them off of the home dog upset. Combined edges above of 13-2 (87%) ATS in favor of a play on the big home favorite here. Lay the points with Miami
|
09-22-18 |
Air Force v. Utah State -10.5 |
Top |
32-42 |
Loss |
-108 |
36 h 59 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State Aggies (-) over Air Force Falcons, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET: Game #392
Air Force returned only 5 starters on offense and 6 starters on defense. That 6 became 5 when starting DB James Jones was lost for the season (ACL). Last season the Falcons went just 5-7 on the season as they returned only 6 starters total! That is why there has been a big drop-off in talent level and experience at Air Force as their three previous bowl seasons (2014 to 2016) saw them average 13 returning starters. Now the past two seasons, and with the loss of Jones, they've averaged 8 returning starters. This spells trouble against the revenge-minded Aggies here. Utah State has had this game circled as they have lost each of the last 3 meetings with Air Force and all 3 were very close games. Keep in mind, prior to this 3-game losing streak (each game decided by just a single score), the Aggies had won the two prior meetings (2013 and 2014) by an average margin of 25 points per game. We feel that, based on the disparity between these two teams this season coupled with the fact that this game is in Logan Utah, a blowout of similar proportion is on tap here! Utah State returned 18 starters this season and looks solid on both sides of the ball and they are particularly improved on the defensive side of the ball. Air Force is off of a bye last week but the Aggies have a bye week on deck so there is no real edge for the Falcons there. In fact, with how "out of sorts" that the Falcons were at Florida Atlantic two weeks ago (allowed 471 yards passing!) a bye week may not help matters as Air Force is seeking some consistency in their play and they don't have it right now. The Aggies threw for nearly 300 yards in last week's win and they did eclipse 300 passing yards at Michigan State in their season opener too. Also, the ground attack has averaged nearly 300 yards per game the past two weeks. Utah State's defense has looked much improved early this season and has the veteran experience to handle the Falcons option attack. Air Force is the only Mountain West team to beat the Aggies each of the last three seasons. That's right, not even Boise State has done that as Utah State upset them at Boise in 2015. The point being that head coach Chris Wells and the upperclassmen that are up and down this Aggies lineup are ready for their revenge here and they'll take advantage of a Falcons team that is heading for another down season just like last year. The Aggies already have benefited from 9 turnovers in 3 games this season and Utah State will continue be opportunistic on defense. This is all without linebacker Suli Tamaivena. Though the senior is still out the Aggies defense has filled in well in his absence and is loaded with upperclassmen. Lay the points and look for a home blowout in this Saturday night Mountain West match-up.
|
09-22-18 |
Stanford v. Oregon OVER 55.5 |
|
38-31 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER – Oregon Ducks vs Stanford Cardinal, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #355
The Ducks got crushed by the Cardinal last year but didn't have their QB Justin Herbert. Last season when he played for Oregon the Ducks went 6-2 and scored an average of 49 points per game. When Herbert was out the Ducks went 1-4 and averaged 15 points per game. Considering Stanford allowed 238 passing yards per game the past two weeks and that one of those games was against Cal Davis, it is certainly reasonable to expect that Oregon is likely to have success attacking the Cardinal through the air. Of course the Ducks also have a potent ground attack too. The issue for Oregon is that their defense struggles against the balanced attack that Stanford has presented to them in recent years. The past two seasons the Cardinal have averaged 50.5 points per game and over 500 yards of offense per game in matching up with the Ducks. Stanford - Oregon match-ups have gone over in 13 of the last 20 and, also, the Ducks are on an 11-5 run to the over in home games. Bet the OVER and expect a back and forth high-scoring battle in this Saturday evening Pac-12 match-up.
|
09-22-18 |
Michigan State -4 v. Indiana |
|
35-21 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 46 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Michigan State Spartans (-) over Indiana Hoosiers, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #317
The Spartans did win by 8 over the Hoosiers last year but this game still means plenty to them. Not only is it their Big Ten opener and not only are they off of a loss (at Arizona State prior to last week's bye), Michigan State did lose their last visit to Indiana. The Spartans were favored in that game and had won their prior visit to Indiana by a 39-point winning margin. Suffice to say the loss was unexpected and the Spartans will also be "more than ready" here as a result of the late-game collapse against the Sun Devils two weeks ago. Even though the Hoosiers are 3-0 SU this season they have played a much weaker schedule in comparison with 1-1 Michigan State. This is helping to add to the line value here. Now things toughen up for Indiana and they bring an ugly 6-12 SU mark (and 5-13 ATS) in Big Ten action into this game. The Spartans only have Central Michigan (a MAC team) on deck so they're certainly going to play hard for the full sixty minutes here - especially after blowing their prior game at ASU! One final ATS tightener here is that when Indiana is a Big Ten dog of less than 21 points, they've gone 3-20-2 ATS! We like those odds as the hungry Spartans make up for their last visit to Bloomington! We'll gladly lay the rather short number being offered in this Saturday evening Big Ten match-up.
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09-22-18 |
Clemson -15 v. Georgia Tech |
|
49-21 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 43 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Clemson Tigers (-) over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #337
The key to success against the Yellow Jackets is stopping the option attack. Of course the Tigers are known for their defense but what has been especially impressive about Clemson's recent meetings with Georgia Tech is that they've been great against the Yellow Jackets ground game. Georgia Tech has been held to an average of just 121.3 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry in their last 3 meetings with the Tigers. For a team that relies on their rushing attack to move the ball, those are very poor numbers. That said, though Clemson won those 3 meetings by an average margin of 17 points per game, the victory margin easily could have been much more. On Saturday, we feel it absolutely will be much more! The Tigers have already faced two ground-based offenses (Furman and Georgia Southern) in the first three weeks of the season so they'll again be geared up for stopping the Yellow Jackets offense. The key to a blowout margin this season is the fact that the Jackets defense has allowed an average of 36.5 points per game the past two weeks and they now face a Tigers team averaging 38 points per game and over 500 yards of offense per game. While the Yellow Jackets have put up some impressive stats on offense this season, they now face one of the top defenses in the nation and a D that has been a nemesis for them for 3 years straight! Georgia Tech lost some key personnel from last year's defense and Clemson will exploit those holes just like South Florida did when the Bulls put up 49 points on the Yellow Jackets two weeks ago! Lay the points and look for a road rout in this Saturday afternoon match-up.
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09-21-18 |
Penn State v. Illinois OVER 60 |
|
63-24 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 20 m |
Show
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OVER – Penn State @ Illinois, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - The Penn State offense is clicking right now to say the least. After struggling a big in their opener vs App State (they still scored 38 points in regulation and 45 points for the game) the Nittany Lions have gone up and down the field at will the last two weeks. They scored 51 points on a solid Pittsburgh defense that allowed just 19 points to Georgia Tech last week with the Jackets scoring their final TD with just 35 seconds remaining in the game. Last week PSU topped that offensive performance by putting up 63 points and 643 yards Kent State. Head coach James Franklin has never been opposed to running up the score as witnessed last week when they scored 28 in the first half and 35 in the second half when the game was already well out of reach. The Illinois defense is allowing 21 PPG through three contests this year but those numbers could and should be much worse. That’s because the Illini are allowing almost 500 YPG and over 6 YPP to opposing offenses this season. Those numbers usually equate to many more points on the board than they have been giving up. On top of that, we’re talking about Kent, Western Illinois and South Florida doing that damage against the Illinois defense. PSU’s offense is on a whole different level. In last week’s 25-19 loss to USF, the Illini defense allowed 626 yards however the Bulls shot themselves in the foot with 3 turnovers, 13 penalties, and 3 missed field goals. Needless to say, USF should have had many more points in that game. The Illinois offense has actually been OK this year. They’ve put up 34,31, and 19 points. Their starting QB AJ Bush should be back this week and even if he doesn’t return his back up Rivers had a decent game last week and was able to get a game under his belt. Either way, we don’t think the Illinois offense will have to do a whole lot for this game to push over the total. PSU has the capability of getting to 50 by themselves. We look for some 2nd half success from the IU offense when the game is most likely out of hand. While we expect Penn State to score a lot, we simply don’t trust laying 4+ TD’s with PSU here, and feel the OVER is the much better play.
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09-20-18 |
Tulsa v. Temple -7 |
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17-31 |
Win
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100 |
22 h 31 m |
Show
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Temple Owls (-) over Tulsa Golden Hurricane at 7:30 PM ET Thursday - Temple off of the big win at Maryland while Tulsa continues to struggle with too many turnovers on offense. Some strong angles support a play on the Owls here. The Golden Hurricane have gone 1-9 ATS when they an underdog versus a team with a losing record that is off of a SU win by 10 or more points. That system fits perfectly with Temple just 1-2 SU on the season but off of a blowout win over the Terrapins. Also, the Owls are 10-0 ATS when they are facing a team that is off of a SU loss as a favorite. Tulsa was favored last week but lost at home versus Arkansas State so that system is also set up perfectly here. We also like the fact that Temple is on a 7-1 ATS run in games against teams with a losing record while the Golden Hurricane have a 1-6 ATS mark in games against teams with a losing record. Long-term the Owls are on a 30-13 ATS run and we expect them to continue their run as a "covering machine" with a very manageable line posted on this Thursday night home game. Taking the best four systems / angles above it combines for a 32-3 (91%) mark in favor of the home favorite. Lay the points with Temple
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09-15-18 |
Washington -4.5 v. Utah |
Top |
21-7 |
Win
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100 |
35 h 44 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10 PM ET: Game #205
Tremendous line value here. When you look at the fact that Washington was roughly a "pick'em" in their match-up against Auburn to open up the season and the fact that those same Tigers are now a double digit favorite this weekend over LSU, you can see why perceived value here with the Huskies in the 5-point range is certainly more than just perception! The point being that Utah is really not close to the level of the Tigers of Auburn and yet the pricing here is really not that much different. This has led to exceptional line value here on a Washington team that very nearly did (and arguably should of) beat Auburn in that season opening game in a "neutral" site game at Atlanta, Georgia. We like the fact that the Huskies returned most of their starters (including on defense) from last season's team while Utah lost most of their starters on defense. The Utes are 2-0 on the season but they've played two weak teams and they barely escaped at Northern Illinois last week. They had a late field goal and a interception return for a TD in a truly unimpressive 17-6 victory over the Huskies. They face much tougher "Huskies" this week and, unlike the Utes, Washington has already faced tougher competition by virtue of that season opener against Auburn. Being battle-tested by an SEC foe gives the Huskies an additional early season edge over a Utes team whose inexperienced defense is going to spell trouble for Utah fans as they won't be able to stop a potent Washington offense. The Huskies aerial attack, led by senior QB Jake Browning, will dominate here. Washington is on a 9-4 ATS run as road chalk in the PAC-12 and they are also 10-1 SU in their last 11 meetings with Utah. We see every reason to believe that the series dominance continues this weekend! Lay the points and look for a road rout in this Saturday night PAC-12 match-up.
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09-15-18 |
Ohio State v. TCU +13 |
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40-28 |
Win
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100 |
33 h 50 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* TCU Horned Frogs (+) over Ohio State Buckeyes, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #204
This is a very skilled TCU offense and, as per usual, the Horned Frogs have a fantastic defense. We're getting line value here because everyone watched TCU "sleepwalk" through the first half of their game with SMU on Friday night last week. The betting public has seen that plus they've also seen Ohio State steamroll to big wins and ultra easy covers in the first two weeks of the season. The key though is that the Buckeyes were roughly a 5-touchdown favorite in each game and they are taking a major step up in level of opposing talent here. Of course Ohio State wants to win every game but one could certainly argue (and be correct in doing so) that this game means even more to TCU. This is absolutely the marquee game of their season outside of their Big 12 action and an upset of the Buckeyes would be huge for the Horned Frogs. We're not necessarily calling for the outright upset here but we certainly expect the Frogs to at least keep this one within 7 points. This game is at AT & T Stadium and of course the TCU campus is in nearby Fort Worth. Ohio State is off of a win over a Big Ten team and is only 6-11 ATS when off of a win in a conference game. TCU is a long-term 20-10 ATS when they are an underdog in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Ryan Day is still filling in on gamedays for coach Urban Meyer (final game of 3-game suspension) and, in addition to all of the factors note above, we also like the edge of Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson over Day in this one on the sidelines Saturday. Grab the points with the hungry underdog in this Saturday evening match-up.
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09-15-18 |
LSU +10.5 v. Auburn |
|
22-21 |
Win
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100 |
28 h 11 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* LSU Tigers (+) over Auburn Tigers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #153
Revenge game for Auburn but, as is so often the case, the emphasis on revenge in the betting marketplace can lead to great value on the other side. Each of the last two meetings between these teams has been decided by 5 or less points. Also, 4 of the last 5 meetings at Auburn have been decided by a TD or less. LSU has had success (other than one blowout loss) at Auburn in recent years and we like the value as this line has crept up into double digits this week. Of course Auburn is a very strong team this season but they very nearly lost to Washington in Week One. Certainly Washington is also a very talented team but the point is that the line on that game was roughly a "pick'em" and now this one is double digits even though Auburn is facing an SEC foe known for giving them a lot of trouble. LSU's defense has done a great job early this season including forcing turnovers and of course they were dominant in that season opening win over Miami. As a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points, LSU has failed to cover just once in their last seven in that role! As a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points, Auburn is on a 2-8 ATS run. Additional big dog value here because last year Auburn blew a 20-point lead and lost to LSU. That means even if Auburn would jump in front in this game LSU has full confidence in their comeback abilities against this team and we expect their tough defense and solid ground game to keep this one close all the way. We'll gladly take the generous points being offered in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.
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09-15-18 |
Georgia Tech v. Pittsburgh OVER 54 |
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19-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 7 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER – Pittsburgh Panthers vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Saturday at 12:30 PM ET: Game #135
The Panthers are struggling to stop the run as Penn State ran all over them last week. The last thing a struggling run defense needs is to face the option attack of the Yellow Jackets. The rushing attack for Georgia Tech is averaging 429 rushing yards per game and the Jackets can take advantage of a Pitt defense still reeling from a deplorable second half performance versus the Nittany Lions last week. However, the good news for Pittsburgh fans is that the Panthers certainly should be able to get their offense back on track this week. The Yellow Jackets defense allowed 426 yards at South Florida last week. The last time the Panthers hosted the Jackets they put 37 points on nearly 400 yards of offense. GT gave up two kickoff returns for touchdowns in last weeks loss and the Panthers also had special teams miscues in their game. That just adds to the big play potential of this game and the over is on a 10-5 run in Pittsburgh home games and also a perfect 3-0 when Georgia Tech is a road favorite. Bet the OVER and expect a back and forth high-scoring battle in this early Saturday ACC match-up.
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09-14-18 |
Georgia State +28 v. Memphis |
|
22-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
48 h 37 m |
Show
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Georgia State Panthers (+) over Memphis Tigers at 7 PM ET Friday - With Georgia State off of an embarrassing loss at NC State everyone is jumping on Memphis here. That said, value has been created with the big dog as, keep in mind, the Tigers didn't exactly look sharp in their one point loss as a touchdown favorite at Navy last week. In weekday match-ups, Memphis is on a poor 1-7-1 ATS slide as a home favorite and the Tigers certainly are a pricey home favorite in this one. Also, Georgia State is 6-0 ATS when they are an underdog and facing an opponent that lost outright as a favorite in their prior game! The Panthers are also 6-0 ATS when they're facing a non-conference opponent that is off of a SU loss in their prior game. With this line up around 4 touchdowns the value is with the large underdog in this match-up that, just like the favorite, is looking for a better performance this week. Grab the big points with Georgia State
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09-13-18 |
Old Dominion v. Charlotte OVER 40 |
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25-28 |
Win
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100 |
21 h 2 m |
Show
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OVER the total – Charlotte vs Old Dominion at 4 PM ET Thursday - The first numbers popping up on this total were in the mid-40s. Now it is down to a 40 as of Wednesday evening. Of course this game was moved up because of the hurricane approaching the Carolinas but that weather event is going to have have no impact on this Thursday game. With that said, the drop on this total likely had a lot to do with some poor performances on offense for these teams. The problem with that analogy is that it is not taking into account that both of these teams have had some major issues on defense. Charlotte has allowed nearly 300 passing yards in EACH of its first two games. Yes 49ers QB Evan Shirreffs is out but he wasn't even expected to be the starting QB for this team as of a few month ago. Also, Charlotte is sure to take advantage of an Old Dominion defense that is allowing 540 yards per game so far this season. The over is on a 19-8 run in Monarchs road games. Also, Old Dominion is on a 10-3 run to the over when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 2 or more games. Charlotte is 7-3 to the over in September games. OVER is the play.
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09-08-18 |
Michigan State -6 v. Arizona State |
Top |
13-16 |
Loss |
-102 |
36 h 58 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State Spartans (-) over Arizona State Sun Devils, Saturday at 10:45 ET: Game #393
While Arizona State did get a big win last week it came against a UTSA team that is one of the most inexperienced in the nation this season. That said it was not a huge surprise that the Sun Devils won big in coach Herm Edwards debut. However, now Arizona State faces a much tougher opponent and we were looking for an early season spot to fade coach Edwards and this is it. Edwards has to be one of the most baffling coaching hires for a Power 5 conference in recent memory. He had been out of coaching for so long and away from the college game for even longer. That said, beating the Roadrunners is one thing but trying to avoid a bad loss at the hands of a ranked team that is one of the most experienced teams in the nation is another matter entirely. Michigan State was not overly impressive last week but Utah State is a quality opponent. We also like the fact that the Spartans have a bye week on deck. That said, though a late night game in the southwestern US heat may not be the most appealing for MSU, the fact is they are geared up and ready to leave it all on the field knowing their Big Ten opener is still two weeks away. Michigan State will be able to establish the run and that will open things up for QB Brian Lewerke whom is the type of mobile QB that gives defenses fits. The Sun Devils defense lost most of their starters from last season and that is bad news against a Spartans offense that returned nearly all of its starters from last year. This is a big play on a team (MSU) with plenty of continuity from last season and a big play against a team (ASU) that is going through a coaching change and still trying to install new schemes and adjust to a lot of new players in key roles as well. A weak team like the Roadrunners was unable to expose any of that due to the talent gap between the teams but Michigan State is going to exploit all of these Arizona State weaknesses in a huge way and we get line value since the Spartans are on the road and that is (as of Friday morning) keeping this line below a 7. Lay the points and expect a dominating road win in this Saturday late night match-up.
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09-08-18 |
Virginia +7 v. Indiana |
|
16-20 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 34 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Virginia Cavaliers (+) over Indiana Hoosiers, Saturday at 7:30 ET: Game #369
Rain is expected in Bloomington all day Saturday and particularly through the evening hours. We expect these conditions to maximize the importance of the ground game in this match-up and that gives a huge edge to the Cavaliers. Not only did Indiana have one of the worst rushing offenses in the nation last season, Virginia has a true dual-threat QB that will give the Hoosiers run defense some major problems Saturday. Signal-caller Bryce Perkins is the Cavs key weapon in this game as he can beat defenses with his legs and that was evident in Virginia's win over Richmond Saturday. Sure the Spiders are not a powerhouse football team but the Cavs were favored by 2 touchdowns and won by 4 TDs in a dominating effort that saw Perkins talents on full display. Though Indiana is also off of a week 1 win, the Hoosiers allowed 170 rushing yards in their win while the Cavs allowed just 34 yards on the ground! Cavaliers head coach Bronco Mendenhall is in his 3rd season now with Virginia and that is the year when a coach tends to be at the "tipping point" with a program where he gets them over the hump and we feel that is the case with this current Cavs team. In terms of technical support here, Indiana is on a 4-9 ATS run in home games while Virginia is on a 6-3 ATS run in September games under Mendenhall. We'll gladly take the available points as a road upset is likely in this Saturday evening match-up.
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09-08-18 |
Baylor -15 v. UTSA |
|
37-20 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 52 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Baylor Bears (-) over UTSA Roadrunners, Saturday at 7 ET: Game #349
Last season the Bears got embarrassed by losing at home to UTSA in a game in which Baylor was favored by double digits. Now it is time for payback. Baylor is stronger this season while the Roadrunners are much weaker and, in fact, are one of the most inexperienced teams in the nation coming into this season. That inexperienced had a lot to do with the Roadrunners getting blasted by 42 points last week in a game in which they were only a 17 point underdog. Things won't get any easier in this week as, even though UTSA is at home, they are hosting a Texas team that is happy to make the trip down to San Antonio for this road game. In fact you can expect plenty of Baylor fans to be in attendance for this game and this looks like a very down season for Roadrunners football after they lost nearly their entire offensive unit from last season. Also, the defensive was heavily impacted by graduation losses plus they have a new defensive coordinator as their prior one was grabbed by Alabama! The Runners will get better as the season goes on but lack of experience and all kinds of adjustments early in the season for this team on both sides of the ball means they don't have the cohesion to compete with a Power 5 team like Baylor that has revenge on its minds! The Roadrunners defense was shredded last week (including on the ground) and the Bears ran for nearly 300 yards last week plus threw for over 300. They are set at QB with both Brewer and McClendon both being very capable QBs. Baylor is 11-3 ATS in road games with a total set between 49.5 and 56 points. UTSA is 1-4 ATS in home games with a total set between 49.5 and 52 points. Lay the points and expect a road rout in this Saturday evening match-up.
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09-08-18 |
Buffalo +4.5 v. Temple |
|
36-29 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 59 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Buffalo Bulls (+) over Temple Owls, Saturday at 3:30 ET: Game #345
Many will be looking for a bounce back from Temple this week. But this is an Owls team that didn't just lose as a double digit favorite last week, they actually got beaten much worse than what the scoreboard showed. Temple lost by 2 points points to Villanova but it could (should!) of been much worse as the Wildcats outgained the Owls by 154 yards in that game! Though the most recent meeting was 2011 you can bet that the Bulls are aware of their recent history as they've lost the last two match-ups by a combined score of 76 to 0. Of course that was before Lance Leipold was the head coach at Buffalo. In fact, at that time he was still in the midst of a run that saw him win 5 championships with UW-Whitewater's Division III program. He is a fantastic coach that, now in his 4th season with the Bulls, has this Buffalo team poised to be a bowl team this year. That likely would have happened last season (6-6 year) were it not for QB injuries. The Bulls 6 losses last season came by a total of just 29 points and we like the value of the points being offered here in a game in which Buffalo (returning a lot of key experience) has a great shot at the outright upset on the road. Temple returned only 5 starters on each side of the ball and that showed in their loss to Villanova. Now they face a Bulls team that is confident after a blowout win in week one and is ready now for a signature road win. The Owls are on a 6-15 ATS run in games against MAC foes. Look for the Bulls to improve to 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they've been an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Grab the points with the road dog in this Saturday afternoon match-up.
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