11-02-19 |
TCU v. Oklahoma State OVER 58.5 |
Top |
27-34 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma State Cowboys, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #373
Both of these teams play with plenty of tempo. The Horned Frogs are averaging about 76 plays on offense per game which ranks them 14th in the nation. The Cowboys are actually in the top ten in the nation as they are averaging 76.5 plays on offense per game. Oklahoma State is also a top twenty team in terms of offensive efficiency this season as they are averaging 6.6 yards per per play on offense. The weather forecast is excellent for Stillwater, OK on Saturday as the winds are projected to be light with no precipitation thanks to clear skies. A pleasant autumn day and both teams will be able to have the playbooks wide open as a result. Each of these teams is entering off a win last week and it is hard to duplicate the same defensive intensity week after week and that is why teams often take a step back on defense after a big win. TCU is off a key win over Texas. The Horned Frogs held the Longhorns to 27 points but note that TCU's two prior games (both on the road) saw them allow an average of 36.5 points per game. The Frogs also allowed 41 points at home against SMU earlier this season. The point is that this Horned Frogs defense is not what it once was and we expect them to have a letdown this week after the big win over UT last week. The over is 4-1 in TCU's last 5 games. After a home win over a ranked foe last week, the Horned Frogs are now back in the underdog role this week. The over is 6-2 the last 8 times TCU has been an underdog. Oklahoma State is 10-2 the last dozen times they have been a home favorite. As of Friday afternoon the dominant number on the side is this game is Cowboys -2.5 and per our computer math model, this is going to be back and forth game so the low number on the side is not a surprise. OSU has had many back and forth shootouts in the past when in situations very similar to this one. That is why it also comes as no surprise that the over is a PERFECT 7-0 the last 7 times Oklahoma State is a home favorite of a field goal or less. This one likely goes down to the wire with both teams struggling on the defensive side of the ball. The Cowboys defense held Iowa State to 27 points last week but that was thanks to 3 Cyclones interceptions. Give OSU some credit for generating turnovers but the fact is Iowa State actually threw for nearly 400 yards passing! Considering that as well as the fact that both the Horned Frogs and Cowboys have strong rushing attacks, each defense in Saturday's match-up is going to have to respect the run. In turn, that opens up great opportunities through the air to attack downfield. In other words, TCU (just like Iowa State) will be able to move the ball very well here. That was a big road win for OSU last week at Iowa State and, by the way, the over is 8-1 the last 9 times the Cowboys have come into a game off a road win in their prior game. You can see why we're expecting plenty of points in this one. With the total (as of Friday afternoon) having moved down into the upper 50s from a mid 60s opener, this total offers tremendous market value! Bet the OVER in this Saturday afternoon match-up.
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10-31-19 |
Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State -14.5 |
|
24-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY 9* ON Appalachian State Mountaineers (-) over Georgia Southern Eagles, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #304
Last season when Appalachian State faced the Eagles the game was at Georgia Southern. The Mountaineers were actually ranked then too but lost their QB in the 1st quarter plus lost 5 turnovers in the game! As a result, it comes as no surprise that App State lost that game by a 20 point margin That being said, this is not just a typical revenge situation, this is a special one and we fully expect the Mountaineers to make the most of it. Appalachian State is the much stronger team on both sides of the ball and their 4 victories on their home field this season have come by an average margin of 28.5 points! While it is true that Georgia Southern comes into this game off 3 straight SU victories, it is also true that the wins came against a pair of conference foes that are a combined 0-7 in SBC action and a win over a New Mexico State team that is 0-8 on the season. The point is that the Eagles are really taking a big step up in level of competition here and Appalachian State gets revenge in a big way. Per our computer math model, the Mountaineers not only improve to 8-0 SU, they also improve to 6-2 ATS on the year. Lay the big points with Appalachian State in what should be a home blowout in evening action Thursday.
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10-26-19 |
Washington State +14.5 v. Oregon |
|
35-37 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 49 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Washington State Cougars (+) over Oregon Ducks, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #153
At 4-0 in Pac-12 action, Oregon is atop the Pac-12 North and, on the other side of the standings, at 3-1 in Pac-12 action entering Friday's game at Colorado, USC is atop the Pac-12 South. That holds some significance here because next up for the Ducks is a big game at Southern Cal. The last time Oregon visited USC they left smarting from a 25 point road loss. This is clearly a spot where the Ducks could get caught looking ahead to a big game on deck. Oregon could look right past a 1-3 Washington State team and that will prove to be a mistake as the Cougars are a team that has a history of giving the Ducks trouble. This is particularly true at the betting window as Oregon is 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games against the Cougars. This includes the Ducks going 0-4 SU in their last 4 games against Washington State. The Cougars enter this game with plenty of confidence as coach Mike Leach, when it comes to facing Oregon, has had their number in recent years plus Washington State rolled to a 41-10 home win last week! Even in weather conditions that weren't the greatest, the Cougars got their offense rolling plus showed improve defensive play in knocking off Colorado. With their first Pac-12 win under their belt and an offense that at 7.66 yards per play ranks 4th in the nation for offensive efficiency, the Cougars are going to give the Ducks all they can handle here. Grab the big points with Washington State on the road in late night action Saturday.
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10-26-19 |
California +21.5 v. Utah |
|
0-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
32 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* California Golden Bears (+) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10:00 PM ET: Game #141
Utah is in a huge lookahead spot here. We still expect the Utes to get the win here as they certainly are the superior team to Cal but this is simply far too many points for Utah to be laying in this spot. Last year the Utes lost the Pac-12 Championship game to the Huskies. Next week's game for Utah (you guessed it!) is at Washington! Suffice to say the Utes have that game on their mind a bit as it also difficult for them to get too excited about this match-up with a Golden Bears team that has been struggling. Of course overlooking a Cal team that is ranked 20th in the nation for scoring defense certainly could prevent Utah from covering a spread that is in the 3 TD range here! The Bears have excelled in this role recently as they are actually a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they have been a road dog in Pac-12 action. The Utes have been very strong defensively this season and allowed just 3 points to Arizona State last week. However, a late turnover is what led to Utah getting a somewhat fortunate cover in that one. The Utes "luck" runs out here as Cal is only 4-3 SU on the season but note that Utah is 0-8 ATS when they are off a game where they allowed 9 or less points and are now facing a team with a winning percentage of .599 or less. The Golden Bears will be a scrappy underdog here and hang within the big number the odds makers set on this game. Grab the big points with California as a big road dog in late night action Saturday.
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10-26-19 |
Central Florida v. Temple +11 |
|
63-21 |
Loss |
-117 |
29 h 25 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Temple Owls (+) over UCF Knights, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #124
This is a great value spot with Temple at home. The Owls are coming off an embarrassing performance at SMU which was to be expected after they upset Memphis here at home the week prior. Speaking of that Memphis game, the Owls were +4 to +4.5 in that game and now they are getting 10+ points vs UCF. Why is that significant? We have UCF and Memphis rated almost the exact same in our power ratings (UCF would be a 1-point favorite on a neutral field) yet we are getting 6 more points in this game. That’s the value we are talking about. UCF is overrated in our opinion. They have played 3 road games this year and lost 2 of those games @ Cincinnati and @ Pitt and were favored in both. Temple, on the other hand, is 4-0 SU & ATS at home winning 2 of those games outright as underdogs vs Maryland & Memphis. The Owls have been a consistent money maker as a home underdog with an 8-1 ATS mark their last 9 winning SIX of those games outright. We also get them at home coming off by far their worst performance of the year @ SMU. It was a terrible spot for Temple as SMU was off a bye week and a home game vs Tulsa in which they played poorly. The Mustangs were catching Temple off their Memphis upset as we mentioned, and the Owl defense was shredded for 655 yards. That is very atypical for this defense that had held 5 of their first 6 opponents under their current scoring average. UCF QB Dillon is a freshman and hasn’t been great on the road with his 3 lowest QB rating games being his 3 road contests. Last year Temple was +10.5 @ UCF and led 34-28 at half. The Owls outgained the Knights in that game but wound up losing 52-40 with UCF scoring 17 points in the last 15:00 minutes of the game. After the way they lost last year, coming off a poor performance last week, and at home where they’ve been very good, we look for Temple to keep this game close throughout.
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10-26-19 |
Penn State v. Michigan State +5.5 |
|
28-7 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Michigan State Spartans (+) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #162
We couldn’t ask for a better set up here for MSU. They are coming off two of their worst losses of the season @ Ohio State 34-10 & @ Wisconsin 38-0. That’s as tough a back to back road game scenario as anyone in the country had or has this year. Now we look for MSU, who is coming off a bye, to play with a huge chip on their shoulder at home vs Penn State on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are on the other end of the spectrum situation wise as they are off a huge home win over Michigan. It was the most anticipated home game for Penn State this season and a game they had been waiting for after getting embarrassed by Michigan last year. They picked up a big 28-21 win but PSU was completely outplayed on the field. They had 12 fewer first downs, were outgained by 125 total yards and had a 15 minute time of possession disadvantage. After jumping out to a 21-0 lead, Penn State had less than 100 yards of offense from that point on and were held to 1.9 yards per play in the 2nd half. The Michigan offense, which had been struggling, put up 417 yards, the most PSU has allowed this season. The Lions held on for dear life at the end and a Michigan dropped pass in the endzone prevented this one from going to OT. They had nearly the same situation a week earlier as they played a physical game vs Iowa and held on to win 17-12. Both games were prime time ABC night games. The way those games played out we expect Penn State to have trouble getting up to their peak level for this road game. The PSU offense gets credit for being explosive, however the top two defenses they played this year (Michigan & Iowa) held them to 293 & 294 yards respectively and they were outgained in both games. Now facing an angry MSU defense that is among the best in the nation, we look for the Nittany Lions to struggle offensively on Saturday. The Spartan defense was allowing just 55 YPG rushing before hitting their OSU & Wisconsin games. The Buckeyes ran over Sparty for more than 300 yards which wasn’t surprising as the OSU offense might be the best unit in college football right now. A week later they were more effective holding Badger All American Jonathan Taylor to just 80 yards on 26 carries but you could see MSU was just worn out physically & emotionally from their Ohio State game the week before. Offensively they did not play well vs those two defenses who rank #1 and #2 NATIONALLY in total defense. If you throw out those 2 games, MSU is averaging 31 PPG on the season so they are not as bad as they’ve looked the last 2 weeks. Off a bye, we expect some new wrinkles on offense and facing a PSU defense coming off 2 huge games, we think the Spartan offense will look much better on Saturday. The have outgained every opponent this year with the exception of OSU & Wisconsin. Off 2 weeks of rest and two embarrassing performances, we look for the Spartans to play their best game of the season in a must win spot. We’re getting nearly a field goal of line value here as well in our opinion. We rate MSU and Iowa nearly dead even on a neutral field yet Michigan State is getting nearly a FG more than what Iowa was getting (+3) at home in this match up just 2 weeks ago and MSU is in a much better situation than the Hawkeyes were. The Spartans have been a money making underdog with a record of 21-9 ATS their last 30 as a puppy. They’ve also beaten PSU outright each of the last 2 seasons as a double digit underdog so MSU won’t lack for confidence here. We like the Spartans to win this game at home so we’re taking the points.
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10-26-19 |
Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Iowa State |
Top |
34-27 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 17 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #169
Oklahoma State is off what, on the surface, appears to be a blowout loss to Baylor 45-27 last week. However, that game unraveled late for the Cowboys as they were done in by late turnovers. Note that the Bears pulled away late in the game courtesy of some key turnovers. The fact is that Oklahoma State had 27 first downs in the game compared to 18 for Baylor. The point we're making here is that the Cowboys weren't nearly as bad as the final score would indicate in last week's loss and now they're catching double digits against an Iowa State team that comes into this game overvalued. The Cyclones two toughest games this season were hosting Iowa and visiting Baylor. Iowa State lost both games. The Cyclones do have a bye on deck but then face Oklahoma and Texas. Both the Sooners and Longhorns beat Iowa State last season and the loss to the Sooners was the only Big 12 home loss that the Cyclones had all season long. Should the Cyclones lose focus a bit here against a Cowboys team that is 1-3 in Big 12 action (Oklahoma and Texas a combined 7-1 in Big 12 action), Oklahoma State absolutely can make them pay. The Cowboys rank 8th in the nation in total offense this season and Oklahoma State is playing this game with revenge from a home loss to the Cyclones last year. While Iowa State is playing for the 7th consecutive week (and 3 of last 4 have been on the road), the Cowboys had a bye week two weeks ago and will prove to be the fresher team in this match-up. Also, from a motivational standpoint, OSU will bring their A game this week after B2B SU losses by a double digit margin. In fact, this play is also supported by an angle along those lines. The Cyclones are 0-6 ATS the last 6 times they've been favored by 19.5 points or less against an opponent off B2B SU losses including the most recent defeat coming by a double digit margin. The Cowboys will be ready Saturday and have the offense to stay within a score throughout this conference clash. Grab the generous points with Oklahoma State as a sizable road dog in afternoon action Saturday.
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10-24-19 |
SMU v. Houston OVER 65.5 |
Top |
34-31 |
Loss |
-105 |
27 h 30 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: SMU Mustangs at Houston Cougars, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #103
The Mustangs are off a huge 45-21 win versus Temple last week that saw SMU amass 34 first downs and over 650 yards of offense. That game went over the total and the over is now a perfect 7-0 in Mustangs games on the season! SMU averages 85.43 plays per game on offense and that is the #1 fastest pace in the nation! The Mustangs will take advantage of a Houston defense that ranks as one of the worst in the nation in terms of defensive efficiency as Houston allows 6.76 yards per play this season which ranks them 124th out of FBS schools! It should be a big day for the SMU offense here but don't be surprised if the Cougars offense also puts up a ton of points here. They are a stronger unit when they are home and the Houston production at UConn was also hurt because, already without QB King, they lost QB Tune to injury. However, after being down to their 3rd string QB against the Huskies, the Cougars QB Tune is expected back this week and has been upgraded to probable on the injury report. Houston is averaging 31 points per game this season and the Mustangs are favored by 14 points here. If the Cougars hit their average, which they certainly should at home, and the odds makers are correct about the line on SMU here it puts this game in the mid-70s. With the total in the mid-60s on this game that is why we won't hesitate to step in. Not only is the over 7-0 in SMU games this season, the over is 3-0 in the Cougars L3 games in which they are a dog. Double perfect systems in play here. Bet the OVER in Houston in this Thursday early evening match-up.
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10-19-19 |
Colorado v. Washington State -12 |
Top |
10-41 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 6 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #372
Washington State is coming in extra hungry for a win off 3 consecutive losses. Last week they led Arizona State on the road late and the Devils picked up a TD with under 1:00 minute remaining to get the 38-34 win. Their game prior to that was a loss @ Utah and a flat spot coming off an embarrassing home loss. Speaking of their most recent home game it was a full month ago and it was an embarrassment as we said with the Cougars blowing a 49-17 lead in a 67-64 loss to UCLA. Now back at home for the first time since blowing that massive lead, you can bet WSU won’t hold back here. No lead is too safe will be their outlook. This is a bad spot for Colorado playing their 2nd of back to back road game after getting destroyed 45-3 @ Oregon last week. It’s not only a bad situation but a terrible match up for the Buffs. The Colorado defense is one of the worst in the nation at defending the pass and WSU QB Anthony Gordon can wing it with the best of them. The Buff defense currently ranks 123rd nationally in total defense (out of 130), 118th in pass efficiency defense, and 124th in passing yards allowed. Those terrible numbers INCLUDE a game vs Air Force who rarely passes and still threw for 155 yards on CU. On Saturday they face a Washington State passing offense that ranks #1 nationally lighting it up for 453 YPG through the air. Their QB Gordon is completing 71% of his passes and has 25 TD’s and just 6 interceptions on the year. The CU defense has allowed 30 or more points in EVERY game this season and they will not stop this Cougar offense that will be on a mission in this game. We expect upper 40’s to 50+ from WSU in this game. The Colorado offense is reeling a bit after scoring only 3 points last week @ Oregon and we don’t expect them to be able to keep up in this game. WSU has dominated the last 2 games in this series (one on the road and one at home) winning 31-7 last year and 28-0 the previous year with a combined yardage edge of +412. These two both have 3-3 record but there is a reason State is favored by almost 2 TD’s. They have a +1.2 YPP margin on the year while Colorado has a -1.1 YPP margin. Washington State is better than their record and CU should not be a .500 team. Lay it in this one.
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10-19-19 |
Rice -4.5 v. UTSA |
|
27-31 |
Loss |
-108 |
27 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Rice Owls (-) over UTSA Roadrunners, Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #415
When you see an 0-6 team listed as the favorite on the road it certainly may seem surprising or you may feel it is a mistake. Of course the reality is that the odds makers made the 0-6 Owls the favorite with plenty of good reasoning! One thing we know for sure is that the 2-4 Roadrunners are not a very good football team. They have a win over a non-FBS team (Incarnate Word) and their other win came against a 1-4 UTEP team. The reason that Rice is without a win while the Roadrunners have two victories on the season simply comes down to scheduling. The Owls have faced a much tougher schedule this season. 3 of Rice's 6 losses have come by a single possession. Also, the Owls do have revenge here as the Roadrunners have held the upper hand in their meetings in recent seasons. This is Owls coach Bloomgreen's 2nd season with the team and Rice, downtrodden for so long, is showing improvement even though that has yet to shown up in the win column. With this being an I-10 rivalry game (San Antonio just 3 hours west of Houston on the interstate), this is the ideal spot for the highly motivated Owls to break into the win column. The Roadrunners got destroyed by UAB last week while Rice enters this game off a bye week. The Runners were outgained 492 to 220 in last week's loss to the Blazers. Both teams struggle in terms of offensive efficiency this season but the Roadrunners also are horrible in terms of defensive efficiency and rank 116th in the nation in that category. Look for the Owls to break off some big runs for huge yardage in this one as the UTSA defense continues to struggle with giving up too many big plays. The Rice run defense actually held Texas, La Tech, UAB and Baylor to an average of just 127 rushing yards per game. Of course those teams all have offensive attacks vastly superior to the Roadrunners offense. UTSA struggles to throw the ball too and hasn't even thrown for 100 passing yards in 3 of their 6 games. .As a result, the Roadrunners drop to 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games with another ugly home performance here. Lay the small points with Rice as a small road favorite in early evening action Saturday.
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10-19-19 |
North Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia Tech |
|
41-43 |
Loss |
-105 |
24 h 6 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #397
UNC is in a great spot coming off a bye for this revenge game. It’s a game they’ve been waiting for after losing at home last year 22-19 to the Hokies. It was a game that saw UNC dominate the stat sheet (522 yards to 375) but they watched Va Tech score a TD with 19 seconds remaining to get the come from behind win. We’d argue that UNC is much better this year compared to last season’s team and Va Tech is down from a year ago. There is definitely a reason the 3-3 Tar Heels are favored at the 4-2 Hokies. North Carolina has played the much tougher schedule already facing the likes of South Carolina (win), Clemson (lost by 1), Wake (lost by 6), and Miami FL (win). All 3 of their losses have come down to the wire including their near win over National Champion Clemson – UNC went for 2 and the win late in the game but were unsuccessful. Even with their tough schedule the Heels are outgaining their opponents 425 to 371 and QB Howell has been very good with 15 TD’s and just 3 interceptions. Head coach Mack Brown has this team confident and playing very well. Va Tech, on the other hand, has played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They’ve already played 2 FCS teams and struggled with both. They barely got by Furman earlier in the year and last week they led Rhode Island only 24-17 heading into the 4th quarter. Their other wins came vs Miami FL but the Hokies were outgained by 230 yards in the game and benefited from 5 Cane interceptions and Old Dominion who currently has 1 win on the year. Despite their 4 wins and their ultra easy schedule, VT is dead even yardage wise on the year averaging 380 YPG and allowing 380 YPG. If you subtract their games vs FCS opponents VT is averaging 360 YPG on 5.1 YPP while allowing 435 YPG on 6.0 YPP. Tech is 0-3 ATS at home this year and their once vaunted home field advantage has gone by the wayside as of late as they have won only 3 of their last 8 home games vs FBS opponents dating back to the start of last season. They also continue to be overvalued covering only 4 of their last 15 games overall. UNC the much better team and rested. We’ll lay it.
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10-19-19 |
LSU v. Mississippi State +18 |
|
36-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
24 h 3 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) over LSU Tigers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #380
This is simply a case of too many points. LSU is off a huge win versus Florida last week and also has a big game with Auburn on deck. That makes this a very tough spot here for the Tigers as they take on a Mississippi State team that will want to make the most of this opportunity on its home field. The Bulldogs have covered 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. Keep in mind that the Tigers were actually down by a TD in the 3rd quarter of their win over the Gators last week. As for the Bulldogs, they are off a loss at Tennessee last week in a game in which Mississippi State was favored by a touchdown. Clearly the Bulldogs got caught looking ahead to this week's big game and, as a result, they paid the price (outright upset loss as a favorite). Last year's match-up with LSU was the first for Mississippi State with Moorhead as head coach. Suffice to say, neither here nor the players have forgotten it either as the Bulldogs were held to just 3 points in that defeat! They've been looking forward to this opportunity to atone for that performance. Before their low-scoring loss to the Volunteers last week, the Bulldogs had not been held below 23 points in any of their first 5 games this season. The Mississippi State offense bounces back this week and takes advantage of catching LSU is what is a classic flat spot for the Tigers. The Bulldogs are highly unlikely to get the outright upset here but, per our computer math model, they will keep the margin in this game much closer than what the betting market is forecasting. Grab the big points with Mississippi State as a big home dog in afternoon action Saturday.
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10-19-19 |
Tulsa +17.5 v. Cincinnati |
|
13-24 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 0 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) over Cincinnati Bearcats, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #339
The Bearcats won big at Houston last week but they were actually outgained by the Cougars in that game. Certainly Cincinnati deserves credit for the win but the fact is they had two very short TD drives and also the defense scored a TD in that game. As a result, this week the markets have Cincinnati over-valued in this spot and we won't hesitate to take advantage with the hungry underdog, Tulsa, in this one. The road team has covered each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. The Golden Hurricane enter this game off an ugly loss to Navy last week but that was not unexpected. It was a bad spot for Tulsa after a gut-wrenching triple-overtime loss to SMU. Also, the Golden Hurricane faced the unique option attack of the Midshipmen last week. Again, not a good match-up nor a good situation for Tulsa. As a result, the markets have heavily undervalued the Golden Hurricane here because of the recent results. The fact is that, last week notwithstanding, the Tulsa defense had shown improvement this season. The Golden Hurricane allowed an average of just 27 points in regulation time of their first 5 games this season. The Bearcats are being asked to cover 17 points here and that is a big ask when consideration is given to the above. The Golden Hurricane are 16-8 ATS the last 24 times they have been a road dog. Cincinnati is averaging only 28.7 points per game at home this season. The big road dog keeps this one close as Bearcats get caught already thinking about their upcoming bye week. Grab the big points with Tulsa on the road in afternoon action Saturday.
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10-18-19 |
Pittsburgh v. Syracuse UNDER 52 |
Top |
27-20 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 34 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Pittsburgh Panthers at Syracuse Orange, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #312
Syracuse if off a 16-10 loss last week. In that game, the struggles of the offensive line of the Orange continued as they allowed 8 sacks at NC State. The offensive line has been an issue all season long for Syracuse and that is bad news this week as they face a tough Panthers defense. Pittsburgh's defense ranks as one of the best in the nation for generating qb pressure and sacks. That gives the Pitt D a big edge over the struggling offense of the Orange. Of course Syracuse has taken a big step back this season after losing their star QB from last year as Eric Dungey graduated. The Orange are known for being a tough team to play at the Carrier Dome but it will be the defense that is the story in this game. For Syracuse to get the upset win it will take a strong effort from the D. The defense for Syracuse has struggled against the run this season but has been solid against the pass and Pittsburgh likes to throw a lot. Last week's Panthers game went over the total but 4 of their 5 prior games this season had resulted in an under. The Orange have been held to 24 points or less in 4 of their 6 games this season. Syracuse had ugly games defensively versus Maryland and Clemson. However, in their other 4 games the Orange allowed an average of only 13 points per game. Both teams play at a rather quick pace on offense but they simply do not produce much in the way of big plays and points. Considering the Orange D will bring their "A game" in a winnable home game but their O-line has continued to have problems and is facing a tough Panthers D, points will absolutely be at a premium in this one. Bet the UNDER in Syracuse in this Friday early evening match-up.
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10-17-19 |
UCLA +3.5 v. Stanford |
|
34-16 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* UCLA Bruins (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #307
The Bruins and Cardinal both enter this game off a bye. However, prior to their bye UCLA lost to Oregon State while Stanford had huge win (over Washington) and are off their best game of the season. Teams often end up flat after a game like that and that is the reason the sharp money is on the Bruins in this game. Consider that Stanford has won 11 in a row SU in this series and yet the line (Cardinal as a favorite) has been moving down all week long. UCLA certainly has had issues this season (including with their pass defense) but this situation is ripe for an upset and the Bruins have actually played better on the road than at home this season. Per our computer math model, that trend continues here as UCLA improves to 3-0 ATS last 3 road games. Stanford is 0-5 ATS the last 5 times the Cardinal has been a home favorite of 3.5 points or less. That makes this a double perfect ATS spot to fade Stanford and play the Bruins as they travel well for a 3rd straight time at the betting window! Grab the points with UCLA as a small road underdog in evening action Thursday.
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10-12-19 |
Navy v. Tulsa |
|
45-17 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 7 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Navy Midshipmen (-) over Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #123
The Tulsa offense is struggling this season and ranked in the bottom 20 of the nation for offensive efficiency as they average just 4.99 yards per play. The Golden Hurricane come into this game off a very emotionally draining loss as they fell in triple overtime against SMU. Not only is that a tough loss to bounce back from on the simple fact that it is was a defeat in 3 OTs, there are more facts here that make it even tougher! For one thing Tulsa missed a pair of field goals in overtime including one that would have immediately ended the game had they made it. Additionally, and an even bigger factor relating to the disappointment for the Golden Hurricane here, is that they blew a 3 touchdown 4th quarter lead. Tulsa led that game against the Mustangs by a count of 30-9 in the final stanza! Another concern for the Golden Hurricane here is the fact that their inefficient offense also plays a fast pace. They rank in the top 20 in the nation for pace on offense. But if you're playing fast but, as the same time, not efficiently in terms of your production, than you're going to be punting quickly and forcing your defense to spend too much time on the field. That defense is going to be challenged this week in a big way. Coming off a 3-OT game and then facing the option attack is truly double trouble for a team and the Golden Hurricane have a history of struggling to stop Navy. They allowed nearly 400 rushing yards in last season's match-up and this rushing yardage range has actually been the norm for the Midshipmen in recent series history. Although Navy comes into this game off a win over rival Air Force they will not be flat here. The Midshipmen actually have a history of performing well under their current head coach when they are off their annual game against the Falcons and we expect no drop-off here. Navy enters this game on a 6-1 ATS run their last 7 games in regular season action and, per our computer math model, the Tulsa struggles on both sides of the ball continue in what is a very tough spot for them after last week's result against SMU. Bet Navy on the road in early evening action Saturday.
|
10-12-19 |
Penn State v. Iowa +3.5 |
|
17-12 |
Loss |
-119 |
30 h 16 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #204
We’re getting nearly a TD of value on Iowa here when comparing this number to the first line that came out before the season started. That line had the Hawkeyes favored by -2 and -3. Now Iowa is getting +3.5 to +4 based on the current perceptions of these teams. Iowa was undefeated heading into last week when they lost at Michigan 10-3. Their defense played lights out and the offense turned the ball over 4 times in the game after turning it over just once through the first 4 games. PSU has crushed two lower tier Big Ten teams (Maryland and Purdue without their QB) and now Iowa is a home under of more than a FG? Penn State was favored in this match up last year by -5.5 at home. Now they are laying nearly the same number on the road despite losing their QB McSorley and RB Sanders who’ve both moved on to the NFL. PSU won that game 30-24 in a game that Iowa outgained them 350 to 312. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 but they’ve played a very easy schedule to date. They have not played a rated team and they have not faced anyone in our top 45 power rankings. The best team they played this year was Pitt who nearly beat them in Happy Valley. The Panthers outgained PSU in that game but the Lions held on for a 17-10 win. They’ve played only one road game this season and Iowa will be by far their toughest opponent this year and it’s on the road. The Penn State offense has been rolling vs poor defenses as of late and they now face a Iowa defense that has allowed only 5 TD’s through 5 games. The Hawkeyes have played the tougher slate with two teams in our top 25 power rankings losing a tight game @ Michigan and beating a very good Iowa State team on the road. We expect veteran Iowa QB Stanley to bounce back after one of his worst performances of his career with 4 interceptions. He now has 60 TD’s and 20 interceptions in his successful career. This is a night game in Iowa City which is one of the toughest venues in the Big Ten. Iowa has played 19 night games at Kinnick Stadium winning 13 of them. Since October of 2000, Iowa has been a home underdog 20 times. They are 13-5-2 ATS in those games and PSU comes into this game overvalued due to their easy slate. Take the points as we like Iowa to win this game outright.
|
10-12-19 |
Army -4.5 v. Western Kentucky |
|
8-17 |
Loss |
-104 |
30 h 39 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Army Black Knights (-) over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #191
Western Kentucky is in a flat spot here as they are off a huge revenge win over Old Dominion last week. That was a game that the Hilltoppers had circled on their calendar when the schedule came out. Now the Toppers have to try and stop Army's option attack and this is not something they see often. In fact, the Western Kentucky defensive coordinator (White) has never faced the option and, prior to becoming DC here, he was coaching special teams and defensive backs. This is why, even though Western Kentucky has solid numbers against the run this season, they face an entirely different and unique challenge this week that is likely to give them fits. Making the spot even tougher for the Hilltoppers is that they faced a very poor (and struggling!) offense in the form of the Monarchs last week.. Western Kentucky goes from that to now facing a Black Knights team off a home loss against an improved Tulane team. Keep in mind that Army also went toe to toe (only losing in OT) against the Wolverines at Michigan earlier this season. In Army West Point's other road game this season they won by 18 away from home! In fact, just playing the road team in Black Knights games this season would have led to a perfect 5-0 ATS mark and we see that mark improving to 6-0 ATS when this one is in the books! Army off a home loss blasts Western Kentucky off a revenging road win! The Hilltoppers rank in the bottom 20 in the nation for offensive efficiency as they average just 5.01 yards per play. The Black Knights defense entered last week having allowed just 14 points per game in regulation time in their first 4 games this season.. After a bad game against Tulane, they'll have no trouble bouncing back and shutting down a sputtering Western Kentucky offensive attack. Couple that with the success of their offensive attack with the option here and they pull away big in this game! Lay the small points with Army as a small road favorite in early evening action Saturday.
|
10-12-19 |
Memphis v. Temple +5.5 |
Top |
28-30 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 60 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple Owls (+) over Memphis Tigers, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #128
We love taking the defensive home underdog in this game. Temple’s defense ranks 20th nationally in total defense. They have held 4 of their 5 opponents to 17 points or less. The Owls are 4-1 on the season and they have outgained every opponent yet they are getting nearly a TD at home in this game. Memphis is undefeated and has a potent offense, however they have played a plethora of poor defenses this year. In fact, they have played only ONE defense this season ranked higher than 73rd and that was Navy. In that game Memphis was held to just 301 total yards and that game was in Memphis. The Tigers were down 20-7 in the 2nd quarter but a 99 yard kickoff return turned the game around and Memphis got the win. We expect their offense will struggle on Saturday. The Tigers have actually been outgained in each of their last 2 games including last week @ UL Monroe. In their win last week, the Tigers also had fewer first downs and faced a ULM defense ranked 126th nationally. Now they turn around on the road again and face a top 20 defense. That’s a tall task for a team that we feel comes in drastically overvalued. Temple’s offense is averaging a very solid 445 YPG while allowing only 292 YPG and they have a +1.7 YPP differential. ULM’s offense rolled up nearly 600 yards last week on the Memphis D so we expect the Owls to have plenty of success on that side of the ball. Add that to a defense that can absolutely slow down Memphis and we have an upset brewing. Temple was a home dog once already this year and they beat Maryland outright in that game. In fact, the last 7 times the Owls have been a home dog of 12 points or less, they are a perfect 7-0 ATS. As a home dog in general, Temple has covered 12 of their last 15. Situationally this game also favors the host as Temple played on Thursday so 10 days to prepare while Memphis on the road for their 2nd straight game after playing @ Louisiana Monroe last Saturday. We think Temple has a great shot to win this game outright and we’ll take the points.
|
10-11-19 |
Virginia v. Miami-FL -125 |
|
9-17 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Miami Hurricanes (-) over Virginia Cavaliers, Friday at 8 PM ET: Game #110
The Cavaliers are the ranked team in this match-up and yet they are the underdog which has certainly grabbed the attention of some in the betting markets. However, don't let the number fool you here as the Hurricanes are set to prove they deserved to be the favorite in this match-up. As of mid-day Friday, more betting tickets have been written on Virginia but the line has gone the other way with Miami now a 2.5 point favorite and that is because some of the big money (sharp money) has been coming in on the Hurricanes. The Canes are off a game in which they rallied from a big hole once they made the in-game switch from Williams to Perry at QB. In that match-up with Virginia Tech, Miami was down 28-0 in the game (thanks in large part to 3 Williams INTs in 7 pass attempts) but then rallied all the way back to tie the game before coming up just 1 TD short on the scoreboard. Miami has confidence with Perry at QB after the way last week's game played out and they also have hunger after coming all the way back but then still being dealt the loss by one TD. Note that the Canes outgained the Hokies by over 200 yards in last week's loss. Now Miami faces a Cavs team that they have beaten 3 of the last 4 meetings. Virginia did defeat Miami last year but the Hurricanes outgained the Cavaliers by over 100 yards in the 3 point loss. It is payback time here and the Cavs have been struggling to run the ball plus allowed 8 sacks in their most recent game. Virginia's offensive line again is likely to be an issue here and though the Cavaliers and Hurricanes scoring results would lead you to believe the offenses are equal, the yardage stats tell the full story and Miami has been the better team offensively if they can limit turnovers. With Perry back under center this week, that is very likely to be the case! Lay the small points with Miami as a small home favorite in evening action Friday.
|
10-10-19 |
Syracuse v. NC State -4.5 |
|
10-16 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON NC State Wolfpack (-) over Syracuse Orange, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #108
The Orange have gotten the money in each of the past two meetings and did get the SU win last season at Syracuse by a double digit margin. However, the Orange enter this game having lost 11 of their past 17 road games SU and the Wolfpack are 14-2 SU in their last 16 home games. Given the small number posted on this game we like the strong odds here of an NC State SU win at home also equating to an ATS win at the betting window! The Wolfpack seek revenge for last year's loss at Syracuse and the Orange are way down from the level of last season's team after losing their star QB. Also, Syracuse has had a ton of trouble with their offensive line this season and that has led to the Orange QB taking far too many sacks. That doesn't bode well for the road team in this match-up because NC State's defense has been piling up the sacks this season and they also are expected to get a top pass-rusher (Smith-Williams) back for this contest. Per our computer math model, the Wolfpack should win this game by a double digit margin. NC State is 8-1 ATS when they are off an ATS loss by a double digit margin and are facing a conference opponent that is off back to back SU wins. That system fits here with the Orange on a 2-game winning streak (against weak competition by the way) in their past two games. Also, in a weekday game, when Syracuse is an underdog of 13.5 points or less they are on an 0-9 ATS run! Lay the small number here as we fully expect a dominating home win in this one Thursday.
|
10-05-19 |
Washington v. Stanford +15.5 |
|
13-23 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Stanford Cardinal (+) over Washington Huskies, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #352
The home team has dominated this series ATS in recent years with the host covering 6 of the last 8 meetings. The Cardinal have struggled at times this season but getting the win at Oregon State is a boost for this team and they now come home where their defense has played much better this season. Granted one of the games was hosting Northwestern but the other home game was against Oregon and the Cardinal allowed an average of only 14 points and 265 yards per game! Washington is a strong program and will be a major test for Stanford but, per our computer math model, this game lands with a Huskies win somewhere in a range of 7 to 10 points...not the 17 point range that many are expecting! As noted above, the Cardinal are a different team when they are at home and they've proven that through the years as they are known for stepping up their game in spots like this. In fact, 6 of the last 7 times that Stanford has hosted a team that is ranked in the top 25, the Cardinal have gotten the cash! That is an 86% cover rate! Bit of a tough scheduling spot here for the Huskies as they are on the road for the 2nd time in 3 weeks and have another road game (at 3-1 Arizona). As for the Cardinal, they have a bye on deck and are a hungry home pup looking to make amends for losing their prior home game (versus the Ducks). Grab the big points with Stanford as a home dog in late night action Saturday.
|
10-05-19 |
Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -7 |
|
6-31 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 16 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Ole Miss Rebels (-) over Vanderbilt Commodores, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #376
Ole Miss is much better than their 2-3 record in our opinion. Their losses have come at the hands of Memphis, Cal, and Alabama who have a combined record of 13-1. Their losses to Cal and Memphis were one possession games and their loss @ Bama last Saturday wasn’t nearly as bad as the 59-31 score might indicate. One of Bama’s TD’s was a blocked punt return for TD and Ole Miss actually dominated this game on the ground rushing for 280 yards while holding the Tide to 157 yards rushing. To put that in perspective the last time the Tide allowed 280 or more yards rushing in a game was January 1st, 2015 vs Ohio State in the Playoffs and the Buckeyes had 281 yards rushing in that game. That was 63 games ago. Very impressive by the Ole Miss offense despite the loss. Now they take a big step down facing a Vandy defense that allows 5.2 YPC on the season and 7.5 yards per play overall. After getting outrushed by Memphis in the season opener, Ole Miss has now outrushed 4 straight opponents by 570 yards including two very good defenses in Bama & Cal. Ole Miss has 2 capable QB’s here but it looks like they will go with John Rhys Plumlee who made the first start of his career last year @ Alabama and was fazed in the least. Plumlee accounted for 223 total yards last week and 2 TD’s including over 100 yards rushing. He brings a dual threat ability that we feel the Commodores will struggle with. If previous starter Matt Corral is healthy (sat out last week with injury) and he gets time we’re fine with that as well as he has passed for 844 yards and 4 TD’s on the season. Two solid options and if both play that could cause problems for Vandy as well. The Commodores are 1-3 (all losses by at least 24 points) with their only win coming at home last Saturday over a MAC team beating Northern Illinois 24-18. Vandy was outgained in that game just as they have been in every game so far this season. In their lone win, NIU had the ball in Vandy territory moving the ball with a chance to win with under 4:00 minutes remaining so this team could easily be 0-4. This is also a game the Rebels have had circled on their calendar and now coming off back to back losses to Cal & Bama, we expect a huge effort. Last year Ole Miss traveled to Vanderbilt in the 2nd to last game of the year as a small underdog. It was a game they really needed for bowl eligibility and they blew it. The Rebs dominated the stats winning total yards 578 to 387 only to lose in OT. That game basically kept them at home for the holidays (no bowl game) and they’ve been waiting on this rematch. Ole Miss has been very good at creating big plays on offense this year with the 9th most 20+ yard plays in FBS this season. That’s been a huge problem for the Vanderbilt defense as they’ve allowed more 20+ yard plays than any other team in the nation. On the other side, Vandy’s offense will struggle to run the ball against a Mississippi defense that allows only 3.3 YPC putting a lot of pressure on QB Neal who hasn’t been great this year. This game really sets up nicely for a double digit Ole Miss win at home.
|
10-05-19 |
Western Kentucky -3 v. Old Dominion |
|
20-3 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 50 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) over Old Dominion Monarchs, Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #383
Revenge can be an over-used angle if one is not careful. However, there are certain cases of revenge that are at another level of strength. Those are the ones you want to focus in on and that is the type of situation we have here. Western Kentucky, a team that returned 15 starters this season (including 9 on offense), most certainly had this game circled on their schedule after what happened last season. The Hilltoppers, at home no less, saw an astonishing finish last October against Old Dominion. The Toppers led the game by 7 with less than a minute to go but the Monarchs (with no timeouts too!) managed to tie it on a very late TD and then the real craziness began! This was a lead-up to one of the most improbable results that you will ever see as all this came with no time left on the clock in regulation and a field goal attempt by Western Kentucky! The regulation was extended (multiple times) by the fact that a game can not end on a defensive penalty. Long story short, the Monarchs walked away with a highly improbable 3-point win that stunned Western Kentucky as ODU ended up being the team getting a field goal attempt of their own in improbable fashion. As for this year's rematch, the Hilltoppers returned a lot of talent from last year's team (particularly on offense) and the same can not be said for the Monarchs as they returned a total (offense and defense!) of just 6 starters. While both teams have played fairly well on defense this season, they have struggled on offense. However, the Hilltoppers appear much closer to turning that around and they have the returning personnel to do it. Conversely, the Monarchs offense is struggling with a weak offensive line giving up far too many sacks and this has QB Stone Smartt having to rush plays and make mistakes. He has 1 passing TD but 4 interceptions and Western Kentucky's defense is fully capable of forcing mistakes as they did in last week's win over UAB with 4 picks! The Monarchs were favored and yet lost outright to East Carolina last week. Old Dominion is 1-3 this season with their only win (over Norfolk St) coming by just 3 points even though they were favored by 25 points. The Hilltoppers have covered 6 of 7 times when they face a team with a losing record that is off an outright upset loss as a favorite. That system fits here and this is a case of two teams heading opposite directions. Factoring that in along with the revenge coupled with a small line make it a "must play" spot for us! Lay the small points with Western Kentucky on the road in early evening action Saturday.
|
10-05-19 |
TCU v. Iowa State -3 |
|
24-49 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 1 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Iowa State Cyclones (-) over TCU Horned Frogs, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #374
On the surface, it may look like Iowa State is off a disheartening loss since they lost on a late field goal with less than a minute left at Baylor last week. However, the Cyclones actually bring in momentum (and hunger for a win) after that loss because the key take-away for Iowa State from that game was that they rallied from a 20-0 fourth quarter deficit to take a 21-20 lead before falling just short because of the late field goal. Keep in mind, that big comeback took place on the road too! They are getting strong QB play as Purdy has completed about 70% of his passes and has thrown 8 TDs against only 2 INTs on the season. Now a game the Cyclones are fully focused on at home this week and a situation that is not a good one for TCU. . While Iowa State has revenge from losing a tight game to the Horned Frogs last season, TCU is off a dominating revenge win at Kansas last week. Yes the Frogs had actually lost to the Jayhawks last season. Not only was TCU fired up for revenge in that game last week, they also were anxious to release their frustration on Kansas after a disappointing loss the prior week in the Frogs rivalry game with SMU. The point is that TCU put a lot of energy, physical and mental, into last week's game and now they are on the road and have a bye week on deck.. This is the type of scenario - we have seen this many times in the past - that ends up being a flat spot for a team. The Horned Frogs try to coast into their bye week and get blasted in the process. Iowa State is "only" 2-2 SU on the season but their other loss was only by a single point against rival Iowa and they truly outplayed the Hawkeyes in that game but were done in by turnovers. The point is that the Cyclones are within just a few points of being a perfect 4-0 SU on the season and, per our computer math model, they are being severely undervalued here by the betting markets. While none of the Cyclones first 4 opponents this season had a losing record last season, the combined record of the Horned Frogs first four opponents was 16-32 last season. This is the first time that TCU has been a dog this season (but a small dog at that) and we're going to step in and take advantage while the markets still have them over-valued. Lay the points with Iowa State as a small home favorite in very early afternoon action Saturday.
|
10-05-19 |
Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 |
Top |
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 9 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #356
We’re getting tremendous line value with this play on Michigan. The line in late summer, before the college football season started, came out on this game at Michigan -14. Now we realize the Wolverines have not lived up to their pre-season hype and they were a bit overvalued coming into the year, but now we feel the opposite is true. Getting them at home at -3.5 is a bargain in our opinion. We also feel that Iowa is now the overvalued team coming into this game with a 4-0 record. That sets this up perfectly to grab the Wolverines at home. These teams have played 2 common opponents at home (Rutgers & Middle Tennessee State) and both won easily. Let’s look strictly at the line in those 2 games so you can get a feel for the value we have with Michigan here. The Wolverines were favored by 36 points vs MTSU while Iowa was favored by 23. That tells us on a neutral field the oddsmakers felt Michigan would be a 13 point favorite. Michigan just played Rutgers last weekend and they were a 28 point favorite. Iowa played the Knights a few weeks ago and were laying 18. That tells us Michigan was 10-points better than Iowa on a neutral field. So if we split the difference were looking at Michigan -11.5 on a neutral. Even if we take the lower difference and then adjust it down a few points from there, at worst Michigan would be favored by 8 or 9 on a neutral field vs Iowa. You see where we are going here with the line value. People have had too big of an overreaction to the way Michigan lost @ Wisconsin a few weeks ago. We watched that entire game in person and then again on tape. It was just one of those games where Wisky played well, but also caught some breaks (4 Michigan turnovers) to get a big lead which changed Michigan’s entire game plan. Things spiraled out of control from there. The Wolverines are much better than they played in that game, yet this line doesn’t reflect that. Iowa is 4-0 on the season but they have played one team thus far with a pulse and that was Iowa State. It was a game the Hawkeyes were outgained by more than 100 yards, trailed for most of the game but rallied for an 18-17 win. In that game ISU averaged 7.7 yards per play while the Hawkeyes averaged 4.4 YPP. Iowa won the turnover battle 2 to 0 and they were very lucky to win. The other teams they’ve played this year have a combined record of 2-9 this year vs other FBS teams. They also have yet to leave the state of Iowa. In last week’s game vs Rutgers head coach Jim Harbaugh moved offensive coordinator Josh Gattis from the pressbox to the sidelines as he felt more face to face discussion with Gattis and his QB’s would help. It seemed to do so as QB Patterson had his best game of the year. Granted it was vs Rutgers but we feel this move will help the offense moving forward. Defensively we expect an extremely motivated Michigan unit after they were pushed around a few weeks ago by Wisconsin and have heard about it ever since. Iowa will bring a similar gameplan although they are not on the same level as Wisconsin at this point and the Wolverines are at home for this one rather than on the road. They won’t be caught off guard here. We like the match up for Michigan and feel Iowa is overrated right now. but most of all we love the value with this number as we discussed earlier. Michigan gets the win and cover at home.
|
10-04-19 |
New Mexico v. San Jose State OVER 66.5 |
Top |
21-32 |
Loss |
-107 |
28 h 9 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: New Mexico Lobos at San Jose State Spartans, Friday at 10 PM ET: Game #309
The Spartans have totaled nearly 900 yards of offense the past two weeks and those games came against an SEC team and an Air Force team that had been playing very well defensively. That said, San Jose State certainly should be able to move the ball well against a New Mexico team that is allowing an average of 42 points (and over 500 yards) per game this season. The key to the value with the over here, even with a big total posted on this game, is that the Lobos also should enjoy plenty of success moving the ball on the Spartans in this one. New Mexico is scoring an average of 30 points per game and has averaged over 450 yards of offense per game. They'll take advantage of a San Jose State defense, not including their game against an FCS team, that is allowing over 500 yards per game. The Lobos defense, in terms of yards allowed per play, ranks as one of the worst in the entire nation. The over has cashed in New Mexico's games 8 of the last 11 times they were off a non-conference match-up in their prior game. As a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points, Spartans games have gone over the total in 7 of their last 9. Bet the OVER in San Jose State in this Friday evening match-up.
|
09-28-19 |
Ohio State -16.5 v. Nebraska |
Top |
48-7 |
Win
|
100 |
51 h 9 m |
Show
|
NOTE: If you do not have access to the First Half Line then make a Full Game Wager on this one. Our recommendation is for a First Half Wager per the analysis here: ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) on FIRST HALF LINE over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #195
Ohio State continues to come out and play great in the first half. Many of their games they lead by so much at half they take their foot off the gas in the 2nd half. They have outscored their 4 opponents 135-18 in the first half this season. On the year, the Buckeyes have had 32 first half offensive possessions and scored TD’s on 19 of those (60%). We see no way this poor Nebraska defense has any chance of slowing down the Bucks. The Huskers looked OK vs South Alabama (allowed 21 points) and Northern Illinois (allowed 8 points), however those 2 teams are ranked 118th and 110th respectively in total offense. Colorado lit them up for 34 points & Illinois scored 28 last week and those two teams are ranked 56th and 89th in total offense. You get where we are going here. OSU will be, by far, the best offense they have faced this season. They have scored 51 on Indiana (30 in the first half) and IU has allowed a total of 27 points in their other 3 games. They scored 42 (28 at half) on a very good Cincinnati defense that is allowing 13.5 PPG in their other games this season. Last week they put it all together and rolled up 76 points (49 at half) vs Miami (Oh). Can Nebraska keep up here? We don’t think so especially in the first half. After an off year in 2018, the OSU defense ranks 2nd nationally behind only Wisconsin allowing 222 YPG and they’ve only given up 36 total points in 4 games on the season. We see Ohio State getting a big lead early here and we’ll lay the points (-9.5 at time of publishing this) in the first half Saturday evening.
|
09-28-19 |
SMU v. South Florida +8 |
|
48-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
47 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* South Florida Bulls (+) over SMU Mustangs, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #122
SMU is off of an upset win over rival TCU last week as they beat the Horned Frogs outright as an 8 point underdog in the Iron Skillet rivalry. Not only was that a huge win for the Mustangs, this is also the first time in 35 years that the Ponies have opened up a season with 4 straight wins. There is a good chance that perfect start comes to an end here! Traveling to the heat and humidity of South Florida after a grueling and emotionally draining 41-38 win over a fierce rival is certainly not an ideal situation. Magnifying the situational edge for the Bulls here is that they are coming off a bye week. South Florida has covered 4 of 5 (and all 5 victories were SU wins) the last 5 times they have been off a bye week. Also, the past 4 seasons the Bulls are 6-1 ATS when they are at home and their prior game was also at home. Even though SMU's game last week was in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, the fact is that it was a road game as it was at TCU. Now on the road again it is not a good spot for SMU. When the Mustangs are favored in the 2nd of back to back road games, as they are here, they have covered just once the past 8 times! Another edge here in the myriad of edges favoring USF in this match-up is the fact that USF has perennial doormat UConn on deck. As for SMU, the Mustangs have a home date with Tulsa on deck. That is the same Golden Hurricane team that only won 5 games the past two seasons but one of their 3 wins last season was the one that managed to upset Southern Methodist in the season finale. That SMU defeat prevented the Mustangs from going to a bowl in Sonny Dykes first season at the helm. Grab the big points with South Florida as a home dog in afternoon action Saturday.
|
09-28-19 |
Iowa State v. Baylor +3 |
|
21-23 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Baylor Bears (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #130
The Cyclones won last year's match-up but that was at Iowa State and the Bears actually outgained them by 150 yards in that game! This year it is Baylor that is the host and the Bears have a big edge here in that they have not even had to leave their home state yet for a game. For the Cyclones, they are playing their first road game of the season. Iowa State is off a huge win last week but that was against UL Monroe. Entering that game Iowa State was averaging just 15 points per game (not including overtime) in their first two games of the season. Baylor is off of what looks like a tight win last week against Rice but the Bears did have a 21-3 halftime edge in that game. Also, they outgained the Owls by nearly 200 yards in the victory and the fact is Rice has been a scrappier team this season as they are not laying down for opponents like they did last season. Baylor has covered 7 of the last 9 times they have been a home dog. The Bears have also covered 7 straight times when they are a coming off a non-conference game and now facing a conference opponent. This is the Big 12 opener for both teams. While Baylor plays with revenge this week, Iowa State has their first Big 12 revenge game next week hosting TCU. The Cyclones have failed to cover 6 of 7 times when they have the Horned Frogs on deck. Grab the points with Baylor as a home dog in afternoon action Saturday.
|
09-28-19 |
BYU -2.5 v. Toledo |
|
21-28 |
Loss |
-105 |
43 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* BYU Cougars (-) over Toledo Rcokets, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #131
The Cougars have played one of, if not the, toughest schedule in the nation this year to prepare them for this game. They are 2-2 and they’ve already faced four Power 5 schools (USC, Utah, Washington, and Tennessee). The first 3 are arguably the best 3 or certainly in the top 4 teams in the Pac 12. Last week we were on Washington who got the easy win vs BYU but we were actually impressed again with the Cougs. They put up 356 yards on a very good Washington defense and QB Wilson threw for 277 yards and looked sharp. We expect them to look very good against a Toledo defense that was shelled for almost 700 yards last week @ Colorado State. The Rockets were outgained by 175 yards in that game and remarkably pulled off the win 41-35. Not overly impressive vs a CSU team that came in 0-2 vs FBS teams getting outscored 107-65 in those 2 games (they did beat Western Illinois – FCS team). The Rockets have played only one team with a pulse and lost to Kentucky, a lower tier SEC team, by 14 points. Another advantage in our opinion is that BYU has a bye on deck – no look ahead game – while Toledo has a huge MAC rivalry game on deck with Western Michigan who is considered by many the other top team in the MAC West. BYU is 15-7 ATS their last 22 games and they’ve proven they can get it done on the road topping the likes of Wisconsin, Arizona, and Tennessee since the start of last season. We’ll lay this small number with the better team taking a step down in competition level.
|
09-27-19 |
Duke +3 v. Virginia Tech |
Top |
45-10 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke Blue Devils (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #105
Last season these teams also met in Duke's ACC opener. At the time the Blue Devils were rolling along with a 4-0 start to the season and had moved into the Top 25 for the first time. That came to an abrupt halt when, after 4 straight wins by an average victory of margin of 22.3 points per game, Duke got upended as a 7 point home favorite and lost by 17 points to Virginia Tech. The fact is that the Hokies have been a "thorn in the side" of David Cutcliffe and the Blue Devils and there is nothing sweeter than getting revenge in "their house" in a weeknight primetime game with the ESPN cameras rolling. Duke opened this season getting a beatdown at the hands of Alabama - just as most teams do when they face the Crimson Tide - but the Blue Devils responded with back to back dominating wins over much softer competition. The Hokies have been much less impressive as they opened the season losing at Boston College and Virginia Tech was favored in that game. The Hokies then followed that up with a couple of victories against lesser competition but they were very unimpressive in those games. Virginia Tech struggled against both Old Dominion and Furman in non-covering wins. The Hokies actually trailed Furman 14 to 3 at the half two weeks ago! Duke QB Quentin Harris is a senior and has run the ball well in addition to putting up solid numbers through the air. Harris will take advantage of a Virginia Tech defense that fell off drastically last year (31 ppg and 439 ypg). Early indications this season are that the Hokies defensive struggles will continue in conference play as Boston College had 432 yards against Virginia Tech in the season opener (and conference opener) for the Hokies. In terms of Virginia Tech's history against Duke (with David Cutcliffe as the Blue Devils head coach), the dog has covered 8 of the last 11 meetings between these teams. Also, both teams enter off a bye week but it is the Blue Devils that have covered 5 in a row ATS when they are an underdog coming off a bye. Additionally, when Duke is off a non-conference game and on the road against a conference foe, the Blue Devils have covered 9 of the last 10 times. This is a triple revenge spot for Cutcliffe's team and they are undervalued considering how poorly Virginia Tech has played on both sides of the ball this season. Grab the points with Duke as a road dog in early evening action Friday.
|
09-21-19 |
Utah State -4 v. San Diego State |
|
23-17 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Utah State Aggies (-) over San Diego State Aztecs, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #399
Certainly San Diego State holds a large edge in this series as they have won 10 straight meetings. However, there have only been two recent meetings as Mountain West Conference foes and yet the Aztecs did dominate those as well as San Diego State won the two by an average margin of 27.5 points per victory! That said, it may have seemed surprising to see the Aggies open up as the favorite in this one, particularly since this game is at San Diego State. The fact is that this is certainly no "mistake" by the odds makers. The Aztecs offense is struggling badly this season as they are attempting to switch to a spread attack and it has not gone well. Typically a transition year can be painful and that is evident with what the San Diego State offense has displayed to this point. The Aztecs offense has averaged only 20 points per game this season. This may not sound so bad until you consider they have faced an FCS school (Weber State) as well as a New Mexico State team that has averaged 3 wins per season the past TEN years and a UCLA team that is off to a horrific start this season. That being said, San Diego State is going to find the going particularly tough against a Utah State team that averaged 47 points per game last season while allowing just 22 points a game! The Aggies came up just short at Wake Forest to open the season but the Demon Deacons look better this season than any of the 3 teams San Diego State has faced. Also, Utah State then got to enjoy a blowout win over an FCS school the next week and then a bye week last week. To say the least, the Aggies are VERY prepared as well as rested for their Mountain West opener against a team that has had their number. It is now payback time and the Aggies offense ranks in the Top 20 in the nation for offensive efficiency with 6.69 yards per play so far this season. This will be, by far, the toughest test that the Aztecs defense has faced this season and, per our computer math model, this one will turn into a road rout decided by a double digit margin. The Aztecs sputtering offense simply won't be able to keep up against a highly motivated and talented Aggies team that won 11 games last season and finally gets their first shot at San Diego States since the 2016 season. Lay the short number with Utah State in late night action Saturday.
|
09-21-19 |
Washington -6 v. BYU |
Top |
45-19 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over BYU Cougars, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #349
The Cougars are at home in this game and that is truly where their advantages begin and end. The Huskies are the better team all over the field and, from a situation standpoint, this is a fantastic spot for fading BYU. The Cougars have had one of the toughest schedules in the nation to open up this season. For Brigham Young, this will be their 4th straight game against a Power 5 Conference opponent. The Cougars suffered a home loss against Utah in BYU's home opener. Then they went on the road and won a dramatic multiple-OT game at Tennessee. The Cougars then came home and won another OT game against Southern Cal. To summarize, BYU has already played an SEC team and a pair of Pac-12 teams and now faces another Pac-12 team this week. Coming off back to back OT games (both wins) and truly getting dominated in their lone loss, we feel it all catches up with the Cougars here. BYU is facing a Washington team that blasted them 35 to 7 last season and the scoreboard was no fluke as the Huskies outgained the Cougars 474 to 194 in that game! While Brigham Young entered this season with a total of just 10 regular season wins the past two seasons combined, Washington entered this season having notched at least 10 regular season wins in each of the past three seasons! Last week the Huskies blasted Hawaii and were at home. In BYU's win last week they beat a USC team that started a back-up quarterback making his first ever road start because of the season-ending injury to JT Daniels. Certainly the Cougars face a much tougher test this week as they now face a Washington offense led by QB Jacob Eason (a transfer from SEC powerhouse Georgia). He is already averaging over 250 passing yards per game with 7 TDs against just 1 INT in the first 3 games. If you take away the OT scoring, BYU is averaging only 18.3 points per game in regulation this season. The Cougars won't be able to keep up with a Huskies team that already "learned their lesson" early this season with a 20-19 loss to Cal as a 2-TD favorite two weeks ago. Having already been tripped up once early this season (but scoring 49.5 points per game in their other two games) we look for a dominating effort from the road team in this one. Lay it with Washington in afternoon action Saturday.
|
09-21-19 |
Michigan v. Wisconsin UNDER 45 |
Top |
14-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
44 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER: Michigan Wolverines @ Wisconsin Badgers, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #344
Being right here in Madison, WI, we follow the Badgers very closely. While their defense took a step back last year, we were told by some key informants before the season started that this defense will be back to where they were in previous years which was very good (top 5 rush defense& scoring defense nationally 2015, 2016, & 2017). So far they’ve proven that correct not allowing a single point in their first 2 games. They have allowed 215 total yards on 100 plays (barely 2.0 YPP) vs USF and Central Michigan. While we realize the competition hasn’t been great, keep in mind that in their other 2 games USF has scored 65 combined points and Central Michigan has scored 38 & 45 points in their other 2 contests. Michigan’s offense is one in transition as they’ve switched to a brand new system this year. They scored only 14 points in regulation two weeks ago at home vs Army. This offense will take some time to get humming and it won’t happen this weekend on the road vs a very good Wisconsin stop unit. The Badger offense has been playing well but they take a huge step up in competition facing a very talented Michigan defense. The Wolverine defense plays by far its best when it can face up and play their base defense. They haven’t been able to do that yet this year facing a spread out MTSU offense in week one and an Army option attack last week. Defensive coordinator Don Brown stated this week he was really looking forward to finally playing a conventional offense this week. He’s had very good success slowing down the Badgers holding them to 7, 13, and 24 points in his 3 years as Michigan’s DC. The weather on Saturday doesn’t look great in Madison with potential rain and 15+ MPH winds. We see the winning team putting up no more than 24 points here which should keep this one UNDER.
|
09-20-19 |
Utah -3.5 v. USC |
|
23-30 |
Loss |
-107 |
29 h 27 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Utah Utes (-) over USC Trojans, Friday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #305
This one sets up nicely for the Utes who basically had a bye last week (beat Idaho State 31-0) while USC was in BYU losing 30-27 in overtime. Both of these teams played @ BYU and while USC lost in OT, Utah beat the Cougars 30-12. Utah has a balanced offense with a veteran QB, senior Tyler Huntley. He has been through the Pac 12 road wars and knows how to win. The Utes have won 13 of the last 16 games that Huntley has been the starting QB. He’s completing nearly 78% of his passes this year with no turnovers. USC will start true freshman Kedon Slovis again at QB. He takes over for JT Daniels who was injured in the season opener. He played very well in his first start vs Stanford which doesn’t look quite as good as it did at the time as the Cardinal have already turned into a trainwreck getting blow out in their last 2 games. Last week, Slovis came back down to earth throwing 3 interceptions in their loss @ BYU. Now he will face the best defense he’s played thus far and one of the top secondary in the nation. We expect him to turn the ball over again here which will give Utah a nice advantage. USC will struggle to run the ball vs a defense that is allowing just 65 YPG on the ground this year. The Utes finished 5th nationally in rush defense last year so their early season numbers are no fluke. The lack of a running game will put more pressure on the true freshman QB to win the game. We think that’s too much to ask. We also have a nice coaching advantage here with Kyle Whittingham easily over Clay Helton in our opinion. How does USC do vs teams when they are underdogs? Terrible. They are just 2-13 ATS and 1-14 SU their last 15 games as an underdog dating back to Helton’s early days here. That tells us the Helton & USC can beat the teams they are supposed to but when they are asked to step up and pull an upset, they can’t. Take Utah here.
|
09-19-19 |
Houston v. Tulane OVER 57.5 |
|
31-38 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Houston Cougars at Tulane Green Wave, Thursday at 8 ET: Game #303
The Cougars have a potent offense but a very weak defense. Houston is allowing over 500 yards per game this season. Granted they have played Oklahoma and Washington State but the fact is Tulane will be able to move the ball in this game. The Green Wave are averaging 35.3 points per game this season even though they also played Auburn two weeks ago. The Cougars are 18-5 to the over as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Within that parameter Houston is 4-0 to the over as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Green Wave are 6-3 to the over as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. This total was originally set at 62 in the very first numbers that popped up offshore but this total has been bet down to a 57.5 already. We're going to grab the over here as our computer math model is projecting this one to get into the mid-60s. Tulane's defense is strong in the trenches but the Cougars can take advantage of weak corners and safeties and split the defense downfield. Houston's ground game has been consistently strong early this season and that will open up opportunities to attack through the air. Bet the OVER in Tulane in this Thursday evening match-up.
|
09-14-19 |
Oklahoma -22.5 v. UCLA |
Top |
48-14 |
Win
|
100 |
52 h 42 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over UCLA Bruins, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #191
This is a BIG number posted on this game but UCLA is showing a BIG problem early this season. The Bruins came into this 2nd season under Chip Kelly knowing that their offense was going to have to lead the way. Of course that has long been the story with teams led by Chip Kelly and last season was no exception as the defense ranked 102nd in the nation as they allowed 445 yards per game. The big problem is that the offense was supposed to be much improved in the 2nd year in Chip Kelly's systems but they have looked absolutely awful. The Bruins are getting horrible QB play and their offensive efficiency (3.71 yards per play) ranks them 128th out of 130 teams! While UCLA has 479 yards of offense on the season, the Sooners have nearly a thousand more as they have piled up 1,417 yards of offense. Oklahoma's efficiency on offense is 10.92 yards per play which ranks them #1 in the nation. This is why, even though this is a big number of points to lay on the road, we have no hesitation in laying it with the Sooners here. Oklahoma is going to do what they always do which is score nearly every time their offense takes possession of the ball. The Bruins just don't have the ability to keep up here. The UCLA offense right now can't even get out of its own way, that is how bad it has been. Also, Oklahoma has a bye on deck and this is their first road game of the season. Look for a strong game from the defense as the Sooners D is viewing this as a very important game to come up with a big effort on the road. The reason is because this is their final non-conference game of the season as Big 12 play begins for the Sooners after their upcoming bye week. While the Sooners have a bye on deck, UCLA has their Pac-12 opener up next! Huge edges here for the Sooners! In terms of their production on offense, Oklahoma averaged 48 points per game last season and they put up 49 points in Week 1 this season (and then 70 last week but against South Dakota). UCLA has scored just 14 points in each of their games. Given those stats it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is forecasting a victory margin in the 5 TD range (35 points). Lay it with Oklahoma in evening action Saturday.
|
09-14-19 |
USC v. BYU UNDER 56.5 |
|
27-30 |
Loss |
-109 |
47 h 39 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* PLAY ON Under – USC Trojans @ BYU Cougars, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #144
If you simply look at the defensive PPG stats for BYU this year, they are massively misleading. It says they are allowing 28 PPG on the year which is not great. However, the facts are the BYU defense has allowed a total of 3 offensive TD’s this year in 2 games. That’s it. In their 30-12 loss to Utah in their season opener, the Utes scored 2 defensive TD’s. That means the potent Utah offense really scored only 16 points vs BYU. We were on the UNDER in that game (49 points) and cashed even with the defensive scores. Last week vs Tennessee the score was 16-16 at the end of regulation and the 2 teams combined to score 23 points in 2 overtimes making the final score BYU 29, Tennessee 26. The Cougar defense is very good and we look for them to play well again on Saturday. They face a USC offense that is a bit overvalued coming in after scoring 45 points on Stanford last week. True freshmen Kedon Slovis made his first ever start at QB in place of the injured JT Daniels. Slovis had a fantastic game throwing for 377 yards and 3 TD’s with only 5 incompletions the entire game. We fully expect a large regression here as Slovis plays on the road for the first time in his career and is facing a top notch defense. BYU’s offense is fairly pedestrian. They have scored just 28 points in their 2 games this year in regulation (14 PPG). They are a slow paced team that has run just 112 offensive plays this year in 2 games (regulation only). That equates to 56 plays per game and to use last year’s full season college stats for comparison, that would have rated them dead last in college football in 2018. They want to make this game into a grinder and we anticipate they will. With this spread set at USC -4.5, the score the oddsmakers expect when they set this total at 56.5 would be 31-26 (or so) in favor of USC. We don’t expect either team to reach their projected number of points. The BYU defense has allowed more than 30 points only 3 times in their last 19 games. On the other side the Cougar offense isn’t explosive enough to light up a talented USC defense. This one has UNDER written all over it.
|
09-14-19 |
Air Force +4 v. Colorado |
|
30-23 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Air Force Falcons (+) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET: Game #125
Air Force holds a huge situational edge in this match-up as the Falcons enter this game off a bye week while Colorado is off back to back big wins. The Buffaloes opened up the season with a rivalry win over Colorado State and then followed that up with a huge come from behind OT win (were down 17-0 in 3rd quarter) versus Nebraska last week. The Buffaloes used a lot of energy in storming back for the win over the Cornhuskers Saturday afternoon and, to top it off, Colorado also has their Pac-12 opener on deck at Arizona State. While Air Force entered this season returning 7 starters on both sides of the ball, the Buffaloes returned only 5 starters on defense. This increases the tough task of facing the Falcons option attack. While Air Force has had two weeks to prepare for this game, Colorado is having to try and quickly prepare for a much different offensive attack than what they saw last week with the Huskers. Also, while the Falcons return 4 starters from the offensive line plus their starting tight end from last seasons team, the Buffaloes return only 1 of their 4 starters on the defensive line. This is going to present a problem at the point of attack in this game and we look for a huge game from the Falcons option attack which is not the type of offense the Buffaloes see very often at all. Overall, the Falcons are the much more experienced team and also head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 13th year with Air Force. Conversely, Colorado lost a lot of experience from last season's team and their head coach Mel Tucker is in his first season as a head coach. The Buffaloes did their damage through the air in the comeback versus Nebraska last week but the Falcons do have an experienced secondary including one of the best safety duos in the Mountain West Conference with Garrett Kauppila and Jeremy Fejedelem. Colorado will certainly move the ball some through the air in this game but the Falcons ground-based attack on offense (ranked 3rd in the nation for rushing last season) will be the difference-maker and leads Air Force to the win in this one. We won't hesitate to grab the small number here as our computer math model is calling for the road team Falcons to win this one in an outright upset. Take the points with Air Force in early afternoon action Saturday.
|
09-14-19 |
Ohio State v. Indiana OVER 59 |
Top |
51-10 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 17 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER – Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #109
We were on the Cincinnati – Ohio State OVER 52.5 last week and lost as OSU won 42-0. If we get anything, and we mean anything, from the Bearcats we most likely get a win with the over. If they give OSU any reason at all (even one score) to keep their foot on the gas, the Bucks absolutely score more than 42 points. The way it played out, Ohio State led 28-0 at half and then scored another TD in the 3rd to go up 35-0. At that point they tapered back on offense and only scored 7 points the rest of the way on just 90 total yards (over the last 19 minutes of game time). We have no doubt if OSU needed to or wanted to keep scoring, they could have. And that was against a Cincinnati defense that was one of the best in the nation last year and will be again this year when all is said and done. Definitely better than this IU defense. The Bearcats did have 273 yards which would normally equate to about 18 points based on the college yards per point average. They definitely had chances to score some points. They missed a FG, threw an interception after getting inside OSU’s 10-yard line, and fumbled at the Buckeye 16-yard line. OSU has had both of their games play out this way. Huge halftime leads and then not much doing in the second half. They’ve scored 56 points in the first half this year on 650 yards of offense (2 games) and just 26 in the 2nd half because they’ve had those huge leads. We see this one playing out differently as the Bucks play their first road game. Indiana has a very solid passing game and we look for them to score at home on Saturday. The weather looks perfect with light winds which will be great for both team’s aerial attack. The Hoosiers are 2-0 and have scored 86 points in their 2 games. Do we expect them to light up OSU’s defense? No but they really don’t have to. Just keep a little pressure on the Bucks offense to perform is all we are asking here. The Hoosiers love to put the ball in the air and have 2 solid QB’s that can make plays. Starter Michael Penix is banged up and questionable here, however his back up is Peyton Ramsey who was the starter last year and threw for almost 3,000 yards. We think either will score points in this game. IU has scored at least 20 points in 16 of their last 17 games and if they get to that number here we have no doubt this goes OVER. We expect OSU to get to at least the mid 40’s in this game and if the IU offense can score some and put some pressure on them to score more, they can get to 50+. This has been a high scoring series as of late. Last year these two were involved in a shootout with OSU winning 49-26 (73 points). A year before it was 49-21 Ohio State (70 points). These two have scored 63 or more points in 4 of their last 5 meetings. IU has scored 21 or more in each of the last 3 meetings here in Bloomington and OSU has averaged 42 PPG over the last 12 meetings. We think Saturday has the makings of a back and forth game early which will keep the points rolling in. OVER is the play on Saturday.
|
09-13-19 |
Washington State v. Houston OVER 73.5 |
|
31-24 |
Loss |
-107 |
25 h 35 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Washington State Cougars at Houston Cougars, Friday at 9:15 ET: Game #107
Washington State has the #2 offense in the nation early this season based on offensive efficiency as they have averaged 9.62 yards per play on offense. While it is also true that Washington State has played easy competition, it is still impressive that they've averaged 58.5 points per game and now they are not exactly facing a tough defense either! Houston allowed 37 points per game last season and they've allowed 33 points per game so far this season. Houston has faced a very tough team as they faced Oklahoma in the first game but then they got a reprieve as they faced Prairie View A & M in the second game. Houston has scored an average of 34 points per game this season and they averaged 44 points per game last season. Washington State averaged 37 points per game last season. Given all of the above numbers it is not a surprise that this total was set as high as it was. Per our computer math model, it was not set high enough as this game has great potential to attain total points in the 80s. The over is 5-2 when Washington State is off back to back wins by a margin of 28 or more points. The over is 18-4 when Houston is an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The past two seasons the over is 8-3 when Houston has scored 31 points or more in 2 straight games. Both teams quickly move up and down the field in this one! Bet the OVER in Houston in this Friday night match-up.
|
09-07-19 |
BYU v. Tennessee -3 |
|
29-26 |
Loss |
-120 |
54 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Tennessee Volunteers (-) over Brigham Young Cougars, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #358
Both the Cougars and the Volunteers had some turnover issues last week but BYU has some definite concerns with an offense whose only TD came in "garbage time" last week against the Utes. The Cougars had only 240 yards of offense last week and, again, some of that coming late when the game was already decided and Utah had "let up" in defensive intensity. Now certainly BYU faced a tougher defense than the Volunteers did last week but Tennessee did put up over 400 yards of offense and scored 30 points but they were done in by 3 turnovers in the game. The Vols were guilty of overlooking a Georgia State team that was 2-10 last season. This is a Volunteers team that returned 16 starters and now is out to make a statement this week to prove that last week's unacceptable loss was an aberration. The last 7 times Tennessee was off a non-conference SU loss they've gone undefeated (6-0-1) ATS. Look for the Vols to bounce back here. Certainly BYU is looking to bounce back as well but Brigham Young is 1-5 ATS the past two seasons when they are off a big loss (margin of defeat of 17 points or more). Additionally, the Cougars history against SEC teams (0-8 ATS the last 8) certainly doesn't bode well either! The Volunteers are 7-3 ATS the last 10 times they have been off an upset loss as a double digit favorite. We won't hesitate to lay the small number here as our computer math model is calling for the home team Volunteers to win this one by a double digit margin in early evening action Saturday.
|
09-07-19 |
Nebraska -4 v. Colorado |
Top |
31-34 |
Loss |
-107 |
51 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #331
The Huskers received more off-season hype than any other Big Ten team and we felt they were overvalued entering the season. They showed that last weekend when they struggled at home in a 35-21 win over South Alabama falling well short of their 35 point spread. While that number was much too high, we feel their poor showing last week, along with a deceiving Colorado performance has resulted in a number that is too low here. We have this game power rated to Nebraska -7 so the value, and a full FG, is on the Huskers. They are facing a Colorado team that looks like they destroyed their in-state rival last week. The Buffs beat Colorado State 52-31 however the game was much closer than that. CSU actually outgained Colorado but lost the turnover battle 4-0 which was the difference in the game. The Colorado defense gave up over 500 yards and we expect the Husker offense to have a field day on Saturday. The Nebraska offense was expected to be one of the best in the Big Ten this year. If you throw out their late season game last year vs MSU which was played in snow and very strong winds, this Husker offense averaged 41 PPG over their last 7 games. They topped 400 yards of offense in 8 of their final 9 games with their MSU game being the only outlier. They bring back all-conference caliber QB Martinez and most of his weapons. Last Saturday was a dud offensively. Head coach Scott Frost mentioned after the game it was one of the most anemic offensive efforts he’s ever been a part of. You can bet they’ll play very well on that side of the ball this week coming off that performance and facing a restructured CU defense under new head coach Melvin Tucker. The Nebraska defense had us questioning this team coming into the season however they won the game for the Huskers last week. If they play solid again this Saturday we feel this team will roll as we expect the offense to click. These two met last year and Nebraska had their way with Colorado’s defense rolling up 565 yards. They outgained the Buffs by 170 yards but lost 33-28 when Colorado scored on a 40-yard TD pass with just over 1:00 remaining in the game. Nebraska was the better team last year and they are better this year. We look for Colorado to take a step back this year as they adapt to their new schemes on both sides of the ball. The game is in Boulder we’re hearing that the Nebraska fans will be traveling in droves and it could be close to a 50/50 in the stadium when all is said and done. It all adds up to a convincing Nebraska win on Saturday.
|
09-07-19 |
Vanderbilt v. Purdue -7 |
|
24-42 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Purdue Boilermakers (-) over Vanderbilt Commodores, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #314
This is a huge home game for the Boilers who were upset last Saturday @ Nevada. Purdue simply blew that game. They were up 31-14 late in the 3rd quarter and decided to put it on cruise control. They allowed the Wolfpack to score the final 20 points of the game to pull the unlikely win. Purdue had over 500 yards of offense but over the last quarter and half, after taking the 17 point lead, they tallied just 55 yards. PU head coach Jeff Brohm admitted after the game they should have stayed more aggressive on offense. They will not make that mistake on Saturday. If they get ahead, which we anticipate, they won’t take their foot off the gas as they did last week. Even with the terrible last quarter and a half of play, Purdue dominated Nevada. They outgained the Pack by 115 yards and QB Sindelar had 343 yards passing. The problem was they lost the turnover battle 5-0. Normally if the turnover margin in a game is minus 5 it’s a blowout. However, it took a 56 yard FG as time expired for Nevada to win. That tells us how much Purdue dominated the game, sans the turnovers. They come home to face a Vandy team that is off a big home conference opener vs Georgia and they have LSU as their next opponent. The Commodores were toasted 30-6 in a game that could have been much worse as UGA ran for 323 yards on 8.1 YPC. The offense struggled behind a banged up offensive line (2 starters out) as they learn a new system (new offensive coordinator). Grad transfer QB Neal from Ball State threw for just 85 yards and was under constant pressure. It will be very tough for Vandy to rebound on the road as they were beat up physically last Saturday. Purdue played Friday giving them another edge and an extra day off. Vanderbilt has been a poor road team winning just 6 of their last 27 games away from home. This is a really tough spot for them versus a team that really needs this win at home. Lay it with Purdue.
|
09-07-19 |
Cincinnati v. Ohio State OVER 53.5 |
Top |
0-42 |
Loss |
-108 |
47 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Cincinnati Bearcats at Ohio State Buckeyes, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #321
The Bearcats offense piled up over 400 yards in last week's win over UCLA. While the defense looked great and certainly deserves some credit for that, a lot of "credit" goes to the Bruins and turning the ball over 4 times as Chip Kelly continues to struggle since taking over at UCLA. The Bruins have now played 13 games under Kelly and the offense has been held to 21 points or less in more than half of those games. The point is that the Bearcats go from facing a program that is still in a state of flux to facing the well-oiled machine otherwise known as Ohio State. The Buckeyes piled up 45 points last week on 469 yards of offense and that was even with losing two fumbles in the game as well. Ohio State averaged 42 points per game last season and this marked the 3rd straight season they have averaged at least 39 points a game. As strong as the Buckeyes defense has been through the years, they did take a step back last season as they allowed 25 points per game. With allowing 21 points to Florida Atlantic in Week One of this season, the Buckeyes have now given up 20 points or more in 13 of their past 18 games and at least 14 points in 15 of their last 18 games. Ohio State has averaged an incredible 50.9 points per game in their last 14 home games. The total set on this game has dropped to a 53.5 as of Thursday afternoon and it is not inconceivable for the Buckeyes to get this number by themselves though we're projecting this game to be a 41-24 type contest. The Bearcats return a lot of firepower from a team that averaged 35 points per game last season. They'll get some points here even if some of that comes in garbage time. Speaking of the potential for some garbage time, as this game goes on we do expect the Buckeyes to attain a sizable lead and it would not be surprising to see the defense "let up" some as their thoughts start to turn toward their Big Ten opener which is on deck at Indiana next week. You can see why we're expecting plenty of points in this one. Bet the OVER in this early Saturday afternoon match-up.
|
09-06-19 |
Marshall +12.5 v. Boise State |
|
7-14 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Marshall Thundering Herd (+) over Boise State Broncos, Friday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #303
Bryan Harsin is in his 6th season as the head coach at Boise State.. In his first season at the helm in 2014, the Broncos had a solid ATS record at home (similar to some of those dominating campaigns under former head coach Chris Petersen).. However, the past 4 seasons Harsin's teams are 6-17-1 ATS as a home favorite and this particular spot is a very tough one for the Broncos. Boise State is off a huge upset win on the road way down in Florida where they rallied to upset the Seminoles. Not only did that comeback win take a lot out of the Broncos, it also involved a lot of travel (over 4,000 miles round-trip). Look for the Thundering Herd to come in and take advantage as Marshall is excited about this opportunity to take on a ranked team in a weeknight game where they know they certainly have a chance to get noticed if they can pull off the upset with the ESPN cameras rolling. The Herd enter this game off a confidence-building win as they were able to roll up a big margin of victory against VMI in what was the home opener for Marshall. Now the Thundering Herd take to the road where they are 8-2 ATS as a road dog the past 3 seasons. The last 14 times that the Broncos have been a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, they have gone 4-10 ATS. Situational value and historical trends and our computer math model all offer strong support for this play. Grab the big points here as we fully expect this one to go down to the wire on Friday.
|
09-02-19 |
Notre Dame v. Louisville OVER 54.5 |
|
35-17 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Louisville Cardinals, Monday at 8:00 ET: Game #217
The over went 5-1 the past two seasons when the Fighting Irish were in a road game where the total was set between 49.5 and 56 points. Notre Dame is in that "sweet spot" again here and facing a Cardinals defense that got torched for 45 points per game last season. Louisville is expected to show improvement under their new head coach this season but that will take time. That means the defense is susceptible to a potent Irish attack that can't wait to put its strength on display again after being held to just 3 points in a playoff loss to Clemson which ended their season in January. The Cardinals have been so bad on defense that this stat will not come as a huge surprise: Louisville is 9-2 to the over the 11 times they have been installed as an underdog the past two seasons. Also, new head coach Scott Satterfield was an offensive coordinator prior to becoming a head coach at Appalachian State. He is known for his strength on offense and the Mountaineers averaged 37 points per game last season. Satterfield will have the Cardinals making some early season adjustments for success on the offensive side of the ball. Bet the OVER in this Monday night match-up.
|
09-01-19 |
Houston v. Oklahoma -22.5 |
|
31-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over Houston Cougars, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #216
There is no questioning the Sooners offensive firepower. Although they have a new QB this season it is the Oklahoma system that is a catalyst for fantastic production on that side of the ball. Additionally, they are loaded (as usual) with talent and firepower at the skill positions and ready to dominate opposing defenses. The Cougars are very poor on the defensive side of the ball plus lost most of their starters from last season's team. Houston truly has little chance of getting stops in this match-up. The key to laying the big number here is that the Sooners, unlike the Cougars, should get quite a few stops. Look for some improvement from the OU defense this season after the addition of Alex Grinch at defensive coordinator. He was previously at Ohio State and though improvement will take time this season, there already is a new attitude and confidence level within the Sooner defense. The Cougars are 3-7 the last 10 times as a road underdog of 21.5 to 28 points. In the past two seasons Houston was an underdog 4 times and they went 1-3 ATS. The Sooners are 13-5 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63 points and this total is set very high for a reason. Oklahoma is known for imposing their will and not taking their foot off of the gas on offense no matter the score. When facing an over-matched foe, the Sooners go for the jugular. This game will be no different and, per our computer math model, this one is decided by at least 4 TDs as that record improves to 14-5 ATS! Don't hesitate to lay the big points here as we fully expect a rout (and cover) from the home team Sooners in this evening match-up Sunday.
|
08-31-19 |
Virginia -2.5 v. Pittsburgh |
Top |
30-14 |
Win
|
100 |
75 h 31 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (-) over Pittsburgh Panthers, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #203
We think Virginia is a team that will surprise this year. They come into the season a bit underrated in our opinion. The Cavs were 8-5 a year ago including a 28-0 win over South Carolina in the Belk Bowl. Offensively they return one of the top QB’s in the country in Bryce Perkins who threw for 2,700 yards and rushed for almost 1,000 more last season. The only other QB in college football to pass for more than 2,600 and rush for more than 900 last year was Heisman Winner and #1 pick Kyler Murray of Oklahoma. UVA will have a big advantage at QB in this game as Pitt’s Kenny Pickett is inconsistent (58% completion rate) and not nearly the offensive threat that Perkins is. Defensively the Cavs should be one of the best units in the ACC. They return 8 of their top 10 tacklers and they are very good up front on the all-important defensive line where they are very deep. They bring back 6 starters in the front 7 so we expect them to control the trenches vs a very raw Pittsburgh offensive line who has only 37 combined starts (117th nationally). On the other side of the ball the Panthers lost 5 of their 7 players up front including their top returning DE Rashad Weaver who injured his knee in camp a few weeks ago and is out for the season. We think Virginia has a solid edge on both lines of scrimmage which is vitally important. Situationally this is a very solid spot for Virginia. It’s a revenge spot and a fairly significant one. Last season UVA won 6 of their first 8 games and pushed their way into the top 25 for the first time since 2011 heading into week 9 checking in at #23. That week 9 opponent just happened to be the Pitt Panthers. While the Cavs were celebrating their top 25 ranking, Pitt came into Charlottesville as a 7-point dog and walked away with a 23-13 win making the Cavaliers long awaited move into the rankings a one week affair as they dropped out for good. Virginia has had this game in their sights since that embarrassing effort. Bronco Mendenhall is a very solid coach and he had the Cavs getting better each year. They went from 2-10 to 6-7 to 8-5 in their 3 years under Mendenhall. He now has his best team yet and they’ll take advantage of a rebuilding Pitt squad. We think UVA is better on both sides of the ball here. Virginia is the play. Lay the small points here as we fully expect a rout (and cover) from the road team Cavaliers in this early evening match-up Saturday.
|
08-31-19 |
Boise State v. Florida State -4.5 |
|
36-31 |
Loss |
-103 |
67 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Florida State Seminoles (-) over Boise State Broncos, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #192
Florida State returns 16 starters from last year's team and that includes 8 on each side of the ball. Also, at QB they have plenty of experience on hand with James Blackman as the starter and Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook (a starter with the Badgers) serving as the back-up. The Broncos situation on offense is certainly unsettled early on as they lost their QB, RB and a pair of top receivers. All those skill position guys for Boise State were top performers and now the Broncos begin the season far away from home and facing a talented Noles defense. FSU returned their entire secondary among the 8 returning starters on the defensive side of the ball. Of course this game being played at TIAA Bank Field, the home of the NFL's Jaguars, in Jacksonville, FL is a big edge for Florida State. This is a tough spot for a team's first game with a new QB but that is the task at hand for the Broncos. Boise State is starting true freshman Hank Bachmeier in this one. The Seminoles rate an edge in terms of experience and have the location edge in this game. FSU is projected to be much improved in their 2nd year under Willie Taggart after last season was deemed a "transition year" for the program. In terms of ATS support here, the Seminoles are perfect 8-0 ATS when they are facing a non-conference foe and are favored by less than a 4 TD margin. Taking a look at Boise State, the last 3 times the Broncos opened the season in a match-up in which they were the underdog they lost all 3 games SU. The 2 most recent occurrences were both ATS losses and saw Boise State get blown out by an average of 27 points per game despite the fact that their average line in those two games was only +7. We won't hesitate to lay the small number here as our computer math model is calling for the home team Seminoles to win this one by a double digit margin in early evening action Saturday.
|
08-30-19 |
Rice v. Army -21.5 |
|
7-14 |
Loss |
-103 |
56 h 11 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Army Black Knights (-) over Rice Owls, Friday at 6 PM ET: Game #146
Army is 21-5 SU the past two seasons. Rice is 3-22 SU the past two seasons. In fact the Owls have only won 6 games the past 3 seasons combined and the Black Knights had nearly twice as many victories as that just in the last season alone. The point is that there is a huge difference in the current status of each of these two football programs and that was on full display in the most recent meeting between these squads. In that game in 2017, Army rolled to a 35-0 halftime lead and then coasted to the 49-12 victory. That game was at Rice too! Now the Owls are facing the Black Knights at West Point and we expect nothing less than a result very similar to that 2017 meeting. Army has won 5 of its last 6 home openers. The Black Knights last 3 home openers have all been wins and the average victory margin has been 33 points per game. The Owls averaged only 18.9 points per game last season and remain unsettled in terms of their QB situation. Conversely, the Black Knights are very much settled in with their QB situation as senior Kelvin Hopkins returns. Last season he became the first Army QB to both throw and run for over 1,000 yards in the same season. He is a dual threat and the Black Knights ground game is one of the best in the nation as they ranked 2nd last year! Defensively, the Black Knights were in the top ten in the nation for rush defense, yardage allowed, and points allowed last season. Rice has been known for slow starts to the season as they've gone 3-10 ATS in the first half of the season the past two years. Though Army lost a number of starters from their defensive unit of a year ago, they do return plenty of experience as they have many upperclassmen to turn to. In fact, their 2-deep on defense shows a dozen seniors. Once again, the Black Knights system under Jeff Monken appears poised for another double digit win total this season and, in this spot, the downtrodden Owls appear very likely to suffer yet another early season blowout loss. Don't hesitate to lay the big points here as we fully expect a rout (and cover) from the home team Black Knights in this early evening match-up Friday.
|
08-29-19 |
Utah v. BYU UNDER 48 |
|
30-12 |
Win
|
100 |
52 h 1 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* UNDER: Utah Utes at Brigham Young Cougars, Thursday at 10:15 ET: Game #144
BYU simply can't wait for this game! They blew a 27-7 late 3rd quarter lead in last season's match-up as they allowed 28 straight points to Utah to close out the game. Not only did that burn the Cougars up, it also burned backers of the under in that match-up. Even with that result, this rivalry game has a recent history of unders. Additionally, BYU trended under all season long last year as that regular season finale loss to Utah was only their 3rd over of the entire regular season. In 12 regular season games last year, the unforgettable loss to the Utes was one of only 3 games in which the Cougars defense allowed more than 23 points. BYU wants to focus on being a physical team that runs the ball behind a massive offensive line. Similarly, part of the reason that the Utes brought in Andy Ludwig as their offensive coordinator this season is because he will employ their desired system much more strongly than the prior OC. The Utes want to use their ground game to pound opponents and, even though they have a mobile quarterback in Tyler Huntley, Utah wants to be careful with their play calling. That's because the Utes production dropped off tremendously last season when Huntley was out with an injury. This is a fierce rivalry and physical defense along with a conservative offensive game plan featuring a "ground and pound" mindset will be the key factors in this game. As a result, look for the point total to finish somewhere in the 30s just like it did in both 2016 and 2017. No crazy finish here like we saw in the 2018 game. BYU won't let that happen again, especially not on their turf! The past two seasons the Utes have been a road favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points three times. All 3 of those games ended under the total! In the past two seasons the Cougars have been an underdog 11 times and 9 of those 11 games ended under the total. Bet the UNDER in this Thursday late night match-up.
|
08-24-19 |
Arizona v. Hawaii +11 |
|
38-45 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 23 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Hawaii Warriors (+) over Arizona Wildcats, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #294
Three years ago these teams met in Arizona and the Wildcats got the win but the Warriors got the cover. This time around, with Hawaii as the host in an early season match-up, the likelihood of another underdog cover is even greater! The Warriors have excelled as a home dog against PAC-12 foes as they have covered five in a row! Overall, in their lined home openers, it has been a run of 7 straight covers for Hawaii. The Warriors are strong this season in terms of returning talent as they return 18 starters from last season's team. Offensively, they are strong at QB with McDonald and he pairs with wide receivers Ward and Byrd for a dangerous aerial attack. The Wildcats were weak in terms of pass defense last season and Hawaii will take advantage here. Though the Warriors are not known for their defense they should see improvement on that side of the ball this season as they do return 5 of their top 6 tacklers from last season's squad. Arizona has not fared well in the role of an away favorite. Facing Hawaii - so strong in home openers and known for "stepping up their game" when getting an opportunity against the PAC-12 - this is simply not a good spot for the Wildcats from a situational standpoint. A lot of points expected here as this total is in the mid-seventies as of Friday afternoon and in a game projected to be a shootout, that is likely to spell trouble for Arizona at the betting window. The Wildcats are 5-14 ATS when the total on their game is set at greater than or equal to 70. The Cats are also a poor 5-12 ATS when they are favored on the road by 7 or more points. Hawaii is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games played in the month of August. Look for a strong fight (and cover) from the home dog Warriors in this Saturday night non-conference match-up.
|
01-07-19 |
Alabama v. Clemson +6 |
Top |
16-44 |
Win
|
100 |
38 h 52 m |
Show
|
ASA CFB 10* PLAY ON Clemson (+) over Alabama, Monday at 8:00 PM ET - We have these teams rated nearly even (Bama should be 2.5 point favorite in our ratings) so whoever happened to be getting points in this game, we feel the value is with the dog. Clemson absolutely dominated Notre Dame in the semi’s winning 30-3 and outgaining the Irish by almost 300 yards. That’s nothing new for this team as they outgained every opponent but one by at least 144 yards. Bama beat Oklahoma 45-34 but outgained the Sooners by just 57 yards. The overall numbers of these teams for the season are almost identical. Clemson averaged 531 YPG on 7.3 YPP. Alabama averaged 530 YPG on 7.9 YPP. Defensively the Tigers allowed just 280 YPG on 4.1 YPP. The Tide just 308 YPG on 4.7 YPP. So for the season Clemson was +251 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Bama was +222 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Clemson’s point differential checked in at +32 PPG. The Tide was +31 PPG. You get the point. Pretty much as close as you could be for a full season as far as statistics go. If we break it down vs good teams only (bowl teams) entering the post-season Clemson had faced 10 bowl teams and outgained them by an average of 236 YPG. Alabama had faced 8 bowl teams and outgained them by 212 yards. Again, very close. Many stick to the rhetoric and Saban is simply tough to top in bowl games. However, the facts tell a different story. Saban is just 3-6 ATS his last 7 bowl/playoff games. Clemson head man Dabo Swinney, on the other hand, is a near perfect 8-1 ATS his last 9 post-season games. You say the SEC was much tougher than the ACC? The SEC is currently 6-5 in their bowl games while the ACC is 5-5. While we will agree the SEC is better, the difference isn’t as drastic as most might think. Bama has a tendency to intimidate opponents beating many of them before the game even starts. They are already in the heads of their opponents before the first kick. That’s not the case with Clemson. The Tigers have no fear of the vaunted Tide. They have already proven the can beat this team in big games. They have met twice in the last three years in the National Championship game and both games went to the wire with Bama winning 45-40 in 2016 & Clemson winning 35-31 in 2017. Last year they met in the semi-final and while Bama won 24-6, it was closer than that as the two were separated by 70 total yards and the Tide returned an interception for a TD in the 4th quarter to break the game open. Breaking down the yardage in their 3 meetings over the last 3 seasons, Clemson actually has the advantage with 1250 total yards to 1110 for Alabama. We predict this one comes down to the wire just as their last two National Championship battles did. Taking the points with Clemson is the value play here.
|
01-01-19 |
Washington v. Ohio State OVER 56.5 |
Top |
23-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
28 h 40 m |
Show
|
ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON OVER – Ohio State vs Washington, Tuesday at 5:00 PM ET - ROSE BOWL - Prior to their low-scoring win over the Utes in the PAC-12 Championship Game, the Huskies had scored at least 27 points in 8 of their 9 previous games. This included bad weather games too. As for this one, conditions should be ideal in Pasadena for the Rose Bowl Tuesday afternoon (2 pm local time). Santa Ana winds in Southern Cal are impacting New Year's Eve but will have subsided through the morning hours on New Years Day. Winds are expected to be near 10 miles per hour at kickoff with clear skies and temperatures near 60 degrees. With ideal weather, Washington should have no trouble putting up at least 27 points again here. Look for QB Jake Browning and the Huskies to take advantage of a Buckeyes defense that allowed an average of 266 passing yards per game their last 9 games of the season. In fact, looking at Ohio's State's last 6 games they only had one truly impressive defensive performance (versus Michigan State). In the Buckeyes other 5 games dating back to mid-October they allowed an average of 38.8 points per game. That includes 6 overtime points allowed in the Maryland game but even adjusting for that the Buckeyes allowed an average of 37.6 points in those 5 games. You can see why we're expecting plenty of points here as the Ohio State defense struggled as the season went on but, of course, they have an extremely potent offense! Another way to look at it is this way: With the total set at 57.5 and Ohio State -6.5 the oddsmakers expect the final score to be in the 32-25 range. We like Buckeyes to score more than 32 and the Huskies to score more than 25. Washington State's last 3 games played with 2 or more weeks of rest between games have gone 3-0 to the OVER. In terms of additional technical support, the Huskies are also 3-0 to the over when they are a neutral field dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Ohio State is 6-2 to the over this season when off a win over a Big Ten foe. The Buckeyes big win over Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship wrapped up a season-ending 3-game run that saw Ohio State score an average of 53 points per game (50.7 ppg adjusting out the 7 points in the OT win versus the Terrapins). Considering all of the above, this should be a very high scoring game and the OVER is the play here.
|
01-01-19 |
LSU -7 v. Central Florida |
|
40-32 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 16 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON LSU (-) over UCF, Tuesday at 1 PM ET - There is a lot of focus on defensive personnel that are out for this game for LSU. So much focus in fact that many are forgetting about the most important injury situation relating to this game. That of course is the fact that UCF star QB McKenzie Milton is out with that devastating knee injury he suffered in November. The Tigers have played a much tougher schedule than the Knights have this season. Additionally, the few times when Central Florida has stepped up in level of opposition, they have not been overly impressive. The four toughest match-ups that UCF had were facing Memphis twice, Cincinnati once, and Temple once. Note that the Owls put up 670 yards on the Knights! That is the same Temple team that got smoked in the bowls by Duke. As for the win over the Bearcats, the scoreboard showed a 25 point edge but note that UCF only won the yardage battle by 23 yards! Certainly a bit of a phony final and the two games against Memphis saw the Knights have to rally in BOTH games. UCF rallied to beat the Tigers by 1 point in October. Then, in the AAC Championship game, the final score makes it look like the Knights dominated but Central Florida was down huge at the half and the game was still a 1-point game with under 7 minutes to go in the contest. Keep in mind that was against a Memphis team that, like Temple, also lost their bowl game and the Tigers were out-gained by 151 yards by Wake Forest in that bowl defeat. The point is that LSU is, by far, a tougher opponent than UCF has faced all year and this would be true even if the ENTIRE Tigers defense was made up of their 2nd stringers! LSU comes from the powerful SEC of course and the Tigers only losses came against Florida (blasted Michigan in bowl game), Alabama (blasted Oklahoma in CFB Playoff semi-final), and Texas A & M (an epic game decided in 7 overtimes). In our opinion, the Knights (with a back-up) quarterback will struggle to hang around in this game and by the second half the Tigers will wear them down and eventually win this one by a margin of at least two touchdowns. What is the motivation for LSU? UCF is 12-0 on the season. They won't be undefeated after the Tigers are done with them. LSU is the play.
|
12-31-18 |
Northwestern +7 v. Utah |
|
31-20 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 4 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON Northwestern (+) over Utah, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Utes are expected to have QB Tyler Huntley (broken collarbone) back for this game but there is certain to be some rust as he has not seen game action since November 3rd. Utah has been held to 147 passing yards or less in 3 of their last 5 games and that is a key concern here because their running game has not been the same since losing running back Zach Moss for the season with an ankle injury. The Utes averaged only 3.4 yards per carry in their last 3 games. Northwestern wrapped up the season with strong running as they totaled over 400 yards in their final two games and averaged 5.9 yards per carry! The Wildcats defense had a poor game versus Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. However, Northwestern entered that game having allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their 6 prior games! Utah lost 10-3 in the PAC-12 Championship and the Utes entered that game having allowed 25 points or more in 4 of their 6 prior games. You can see why we like having the TD underdog here when you see how these teams have performed in the latter half of the season. Speaking of underdog value, if you had played the underdog in all 12 of Northwestern's regular season games (prior to Big Ten Championship) you would not have lost a single bet as the dog was 11-0-1 ATS in the Wildcats dozen regular season games. Northwestern's outright upset wins included defeating Wisconsin and winning at Iowa and at Michigan State this season. We are forecasting another upset here and will gladly grab the points being offered. Northwestern is the play.
|
12-31-18 |
Michigan State +2.5 v. Oregon |
|
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 25 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Michigan State (+) over Oregon, Monday at 3:00 PM ET - We really like the defensive and coaching advantage in this game. MSU head man Mark Dantonio is a very good coach and with extra time to prepare he has been money. The Spartans are 5-1 both SU & ATS their last 6 bowl games with their only loss & non-cover coming against Alabama. Oregon’s Mario Cristobal is in his 2nd season in Eugene and while he is a very good recruiter, we’re not wild about him as a head coach. He had only 2 winning seasons (8-5 & 7-6) in his 6 seasons as head coach @ Florida International from 2007 to 2012. His two bowl appearances with FIU were not very impressive as the slipped by Toledo 34-32 as a 2-point favorite and the Rockets outgained FIU by 130 yards in that game (FIU had 89 yard kick return for TD by now Indy WR TY Hilton). The following year Cristobal took FIU to another bowl and lost by 10 to Marshall as a 4-point favorite. Last year, his first with Oregon, the Ducks went into their bowl game vs Boise as a 7-point favorite and lost by 10. Cristobal, unlike Dantonio, has not shown the ability to have his team ready for bowl games losing in 2 of his 3 post-season appearances as a favorite. MSU defensively has been great this year. They rank #1 nationally vs the rush allowing just 81 YPG on 2.7 YPC. The Ducks rely very heavily on the run averaging 41 carries per game (35th nationally in rushing attempts per game). Using a successful running game to set up QB Justin Herbert and the passing game probably won’t be an option here for the Ducks. MSU should keep them one dimensional. The Spartan offense definitely had their problems this season. However, injuries had a lot to do with that. QB Brian Lewerke had a shoulder injury down the stretch and was not anywhere near 100% as he split time with Rocky Lombardi. Lewerke has had time to rest his shoulder and it’s much better than it has been as he gets the start here. Starting RB LJ Scott was injured much of the season and he is healthy for this game. Sparty has had a month off to tweak their offense and now with some key contributors back, we expect them to play much better. They are facing an Oregon defense that allowed 31 PPG vs the 6 bowl teams they faced this year. By comparison, the MSU defense allowed 21 points or less in 9 of their 12 games this year. Sparty played the much tougher schedule this year facing the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and even a very good Utah State team in the non-conference slate. The Pac 12 was down again this year and they continue to flame out in bowl games. This year the Pac 12 is already 1-2 SU in bowls but 0-3 ATS. The conference is now 2-14 ATS their last 16 bowl appearances. The Pac 12 is just 2-10 SU their last 12 bowl games dating back to last season. We like Michigan State to take this game outright.
|
12-29-18 |
Oklahoma v. Alabama OVER 76.5 |
Top |
34-45 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 50 m |
Show
|
#253/254 ASA 10* CFB PLAY ON OVER – Alabama vs Oklahoma, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - ORANGE BOWL - Oklahoma ranks 102nd in total defense so this will be the 3rd worst defense Bama has faced this season. The two teams they played that are ranked lower in total defense were Ole Miss (116th) and Louisville (126th) and the Tide put up 62 & 51 points in those 2 games. As we go a bit further, Bama played a total of 4 teams this year ranked 75th or worse in total defense and they scored 65, 62, 57, and 51 points in those 4 games. We expect Alabama to put up similar numbers on Saturday vs a terrible Sooner defense that gave up big points to nearly everyone on their schedule. They allowed at least 33 points in 6 of their 9 Big 12 games and allowed 40+ in 5 of those games. That includes a bad Kansas offense who scored 40 on this defense. The Okie defense will now face the BEST offense they’ve taken on this season as Bama ranks 2nd nationally in YPP putting up 7.6. Who ranks first in YPP offense? Oklahoma at 8.6 YPP. So while we expect Bama to run up huge numbers here, the Sooners will get theirs as well. The Tide have impressive defensive numbers but they haven’t faced an offense like this OU unit. The best offense Bama has faced in Georgia and they average a full 100 less per game than Oklahoma. Georgia scored 28 points and put up 450 yards on Bama. We think Oklahoma tops both of those numbers which should put this one over rather easily despite the high number. Look at it this way, with the total set at 77 and Bama -14 the oddsmakers expect the final score to be in the 45-31 range. We like Bama to score more than 45 and Oklahoma to score more than 31. These two have combined to play 26 games this year and they are 19-6-1 to the OVER. This should be a very high scoring game and the OVER is the play here.
|
12-29-18 |
Arkansas State v. Nevada OVER 56 |
|
13-16 |
Loss |
-112 |
19 h 8 m |
Show
|
#245/246 ASA 9* CFB OVER – Arkansas State vs Nevada, Saturday at 1:15 PM ET – ARIZONA BOWL - Both of these defenses played pretty well down the stretch which is possibly why this total is sitting lower than it should be in our opinion. Our numbers had this total sitting at 60 so the value is on the OVER in our opinion. Arkansas State won 4 straight to end the season allowing 14, 16, 17, and 7 points. None of those teams made it to a bowl game and they ranked 120th, 106th, 84th, and 56th in total offense. Against the 4 bowl teams they faced this year the Red Wolves allowed 57, 47, 35, and 28 points. Nevada’s defense was in the same boat. In their final 4 games they allowed 34, 12, 10, and 24 points their last 4 games. The 34 points they allowed was to a UNLV team that ranks 75th in total offense so not an impressive defensive effort. The other 3 games Nevada faced offenses ranked 122nd , 112th, and 60th. Similar to Arkansas State, when the Nevada defense faced a bowl team, it was a much different story. The Wolfpack allowed 63, 41, 31, 24, and 21 vs bowl teams. Both offenses are potent averaging over 6.2 yards per play. They are also both very balanced with each averaging over 35+ pass attempts per game and 32+ rush attempts per game. Arkansas State ranks 20th nationally in total offense and Nevada ranks 34th. They both average over 30 PPG and both teams average over 2 plays run per minute which puts them in the top third of the NCAA in tempo. Both QB’s are veterans capable of putting up big numbers. Arkansas State signal caller Justice Hansen is a 4-year starter that has thrown for over 13,000 career yards and 110 TD’s. Nevada QB Ty Gangi is a 2.5-year starter that has thrown for over 7,000 yards and 56 TD’s. The weather at game time in Tucson will be a bit cool in the upper 40’s but light wind and no precipitation. Ideal conditions. We expect both of these teams to push into the 30’s and we’ll take the OVER.
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12-28-18 |
Iowa State v. Washington State -2.5 |
Top |
26-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
34 h 36 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 10* TOP Washington State (-) over Iowa State, Friday at 9 PM ET - These teams have nearly identical stats on the defensive side of the ball but the Cougars hold a large edge on offense. While the Cyclones averaged 26.8 points on only 359 yards per game this season, Washington State piled up 461.8 yards per game leading the way to producing an average of 38.3 points per game. Keep in mind that while the Cougars have had Gardner Minshew at QB all season long, Iowa State is now using a quarterback that was listed 3rd on the depth chart entering this season! The only two losses that Washington State suffered this season were by 3 points at USC in a game in which they outgained the Trojans by nearly 100 yards and then in the Apple Cup battle versus Washington that was played in snowy conditions that didn't allow Minshew to continue his strong late season run. There certainly won't be any concern with weather in this one as it is played indoors at the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX. This is a big edge for the team with the better offense and that is certainly the Cougars in this match-up. The Cyclones do have some injury concerns in the secondary which could impact their depth in this one and that spells trouble against a passing attack that totaled at least 319 passing yards in every single game this season other than the "snow game" in their season finale. Iowa State is 0-3 ATS this season in non-conference games. The Cougars are 8-3 SU and ATS (including 4-1 SU and ATS this season) in games with a point spread in a range of +3 to -3. With the line move on this game also working in favor of the Cougars this is a fantastic value spot. In our opinion, this is the best team Washington State head coach Mike Leach has had during his time with the Cougars and we like them to bounce back after losing their final regular season game. Certainly it is the best defense Leach has had and we have a feeling the Cyclones will struggle to score points in this game and the Cougars pull away in the 2nd half for a double digit win. Washington State is the play.
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12-28-18 |
Auburn v. Purdue +3.5 |
|
63-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
40 h 20 m |
Show
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#242 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Purdue (+) over Auburn, Friday at 1:30 PM ET – MUSIC CITY BOWL - We know Purdue is thrilled to be here. They will be well prepared and very motivated to take on their SEC foe. Head coach Jeff Brohm, who is very well liked by the players, gave this team an extra boost by turning down the Louisville job (Brohm’s alma mater) after the season to stay with the Boilers. Positive energy abounds around this program and we expect them to play very well on Friday. Auburn? Maybe not so much. The Tigers had much higher aspirations this year but struggled to get to a 7-5 record. They were in the Sugar Bowl and Peach Bowl the last 2 seasons and now they are relegated to the Music City Bowl. Their coach Gus Malzahn is just 1-4 SU in bowl games as this team often underachieves in the post-season. On top of that, Malzahn was on the hot seat for much of the season but will now remain as head coach which we’re not sure is a great thing. His offensive coordinator has already left for the same position under Les Miles at Kansas. Their starting QB Jarrett Stidham will play but has already declared for the draft so we’re not sure he’ll be 100% focused on this one. Since the opening weekend when the Tigers slipped by Washington 21-16, this team has beaten a grand total of ONE team that was bowl eligible. That was a 28-24 win over Texas A&M, a game Auburn was outgained by 123 yards AND trailed 24-14 with less than 6:00 remaining in the game. This team was outgained in every SEC game but two this year (outgained Ole Miss by 50 & Tennessee by 37). Purdue has great momentum after starting the season 0-3 and fighting their way back and into a bowl game. Four of their six losses came by 4 points or less and only once this season were they beaten badly and the game was out of reach. Unlike Malzahn, Purdue’s Jeff Brohm has been a very good bowl coach with a perfect 3-0 SU record in his time at Western Kentucky & Purdue. They have impressive wins this year over bowlers Ohio State, Iowa, and Boston College. While the Boilers have hung around in the same neighborhood stat’s wise vs other bowl teams getting outgained by just 10 YPG, the Tigers have been dominated by other good teams getting outgained by 123 YPG vs other bowl teams. We’ll take the rising team as a dog over the team that is likely to go through the motions here.
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12-27-18 |
Duke +3.5 v. Temple |
|
56-27 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 23 m |
Show
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#235 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Duke (+) over Temple, Thursday at 1:30 PM ET – INDEPENDENCE BOWL We feel the coaching mismatch in this game is fairly significant. Duke’s head man David Cutcliffe is a veteran whose been at Duke for 11 years & was the head coach at Ole Miss prior to that. His teams at both schools have performed very well in bowl games with an 9-2 ATS record. He prepares them well with the extra time off and that shows in his 82% ATS bowl mark. His counterpart on Thursday will be interim coach Ed Foley as Temple head coach Geoff Collins has moved on to take the job at Georgia Tech. Foley was the interim coach for Temple in their bowl game 2 years ago and they lost by 8 points to Wake Forest as a 12 point favorite. Temple’s main assistant coaches have remained in place which helps but many will be looking for new jobs (or have been already) as Miami DC Manny Diaz takes over starting on Friday. That has to cause some distraction for this team. We love this situation for the Devils as well. They were absolutely embarrassed in their season finale losing 59-7 to Wake Forest. Not only that, Duke was favored by 9 in that game! It was a bad spot for Duke as they were coming off Clemson a week earlier and took and up and coming Wake team for granted (Wake already beat Memphis in their bowl game). It was Cutcliffe’s worst loss of his career and you can bet his team wants redemption for that terrible and effortless performance. Temple, on the other hand, hasn’t been challenged in a month and a half when they beat Houston on November 11th. They were double digit favorites in their final two games vs USF and UConn and won those games by 10 & 50 points. The Owl defense has impressive numbers, however they did have problems with mobile QB’s allowing Houston to put up 49, Boston College 45, UCF 52, and Buffalo 36 points. Duke’s QB Daniel Jones falls into that category so we expect the Devils to have a solid offensive performance here. The Blue Devils have played the MUCH tougher schedule facing off against 10 teams that made their way into bowl games. They were 5-5 in those games including wins over Army (who blew out Houston in their bowl game), Miami FL, Northwestern (who won the Big Ten West), Georgia Tech, and Baylor. Meanwhile, in the much weaker AAC, Temple faced 6 bowl bound teams and finished with a 3-3 mark with wins over Houston (who was blown out by Army in their bowl game), USF (who was WAY down this season and blown out at home in their bowl game by Marshall), and Cincy in OT. We think Duke has a great shot to win this game outright and we’ll take the points.
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12-26-18 |
Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 |
|
34-10 |
Loss |
-100 |
20 h 57 m |
Show
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ASA 9* PLAY ON Georgia Tech (-) over Minnesota, Wednesday at 5:15 PM ET This is the Gophers first bowl appearance since PJ Fleck took over as head coach so they might be in “just happy to be here” mode. They already won their biggest game of the year upsetting Wisconsin (Badgers had 4 turnover to 0 for Minnesota) on the road in the season finale taking home Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the first time in 14 yards AND becoming bowl eligible in the process. Going into Wisconsin as a double digit underdog, we’re not sure they even expected to be playing in the post-season. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, will be highly motivated to get this win. Their long time head coach Paul Johnson has informed his team that he will retire after this one. From what we have been told, Johnson is well liked by his players and they REALLY want to win this game for him. “I’m going to try to have my best game, and we’re going to try to send coach Johnson out the right way, with a win,” linebacker and captain Brant Mitchell said. “I think that’s the mindset of everybody on this team.” The Jackets offensive strength plays right into Minnesota’s defensive weakness. Tech leads the nation in rushing at 335 YPG on 5.7 YPC while Minnesota allows 170 YPG on the ground in 5.2 YPC. They had some solid defensive performances vs the rush against lower tier rushing teams. However, against the top running games in the Big Ten they struggled allowing Illinois, Nebraska, and Maryland to all rush for over 300 yards. Against Wisconsin to end the season, Minny jumped out to a quick 17-0 lead due to turnovers and special teams (punt return TD for Gophs) taking the Badgers out of their gameplan. Even with that Wisconsin rushed for 170 yards on 5.5 YPC. The Gophs will also be without their top defensive player and leading tackler LB Blake Cashman along with starting OT Donnell Greene who are both sitting out this game to get ready for the NFL draft. On top of that, head coach PJ Fleck suspended a few other players but he isn’t divulging who they are so we’ll all find out at game time. Either way, not a great sign for Minnesota and their mental readiness for this game. They are also the youngest team in the nation with over 50% of their roster being freshmen so it will be the first bowl game ever for many on this team. Because they were young, the Gophers struggled on the road with their only win coming @ Wisconsin in a game they were actually outgained. Their other games away from home ended in losses by margins of 29, 25, 24, and 16 points. Ga Tech has won 6 of 8 game entering this one but did lose in their season ender to in-state rival Georgia. Johnson has led his team to wins in 3 of their last 4 bowls games and we like them to bounce back after losing their final regular season game. We have a feeling the young Minnesota defense gets worn down in this game and Tech pulls away in the 2nd half for a double digit win. Georgia Tech is the play.
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12-22-18 |
Buffalo v. Troy +1 |
Top |
32-42 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 51 m |
Show
|
#226 ASA CFB 10* TOP PLAY ON Troy (+) over Buffalo, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET – DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL The wrong team is favored here in our opinion. We have these teams rated dead even and this is basically a home game for Troy. This game is being played in Mobile, AL which is 165 miiles from the Troy campus. When the Trojans played here two years ago they beat Ohio (from the MAC) 28-23. They brought 30,000+ fans to the game and a large contingent is expected again on Saturday. The Trojans were 2nd best team in the Sun Belt all season long right behind Appalachian State who already won their bowl game 45-13 despite losing their head coach and much of their coaching staff at the end of the regular season. Our 3rd rated team in the Sun Belt was Georgia Southern who already beat Eastern Michigan from the MAC (same as Buffalo) in their bowl game. Troy beat all of the bowl teams in the Sun Belt with the exception of App State who played host to the Trojans in the final game of the regular season and won 21-10. This team also beat Nebraska on the road earlier in the season. The MAC is again struggling in the bowl season (EMU lost, NIU lost, Toledo lost, Ohio won as of this writing) and the league is just 1-11 SU their last 12 bowl games. Buffalo lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game blowing a 29-10 lead losing 30-29. We think they’ll have a tough time bouncing back from that disappointment. On top of that, the team that beat them, Northern Illinois, was already crushed in their bowl game by UAB. Troy has a decent sized defensive edge here. They have been very good at stopping the run allowing just 3.3 YPC this season. It’s not as if the Sun Belt is a bad rushing conference either as this Troy defense faced 5 of the top 31 rush offenses this season. The Bulls rely heavily on their running game (42 carries per game) and Troy has the ability to shut that down. On the other side of the ball Buffalo allows nearly a full YPC more than Troy. The Trojans should control the trenches here. This is Buffalo’s first bowl game since 2013 while Troy is playing their third straight bowl game (won their bowl game each of the last 2 seasons). Troy has a veteran coach in Neal Brown that has led his team to a 30-19 ATS record over his tenure at the school. This Troy team has won 30 of their last 38 games going back to the start of the 2015 season. This program has a winning tradition while Buffalo is just starting to build theirs with their first winning season since 2013. Troy wins this one.
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12-22-18 |
Houston v. Army -5 |
|
14-70 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 22 m |
Show
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#224 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Army (-) over Houston, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – ARMED FORCES BOWL - We’re not so sure what Houston’s mind set will be entering this game. They had higher aspirations coming into the season but are stuck in the Armed Forces Bowl. Their top player, DT Oliver, is sitting this game out to get ready for the NFL draft. Their starting QB D’Eriq King, who passed for 3000 yards and 36 TD’s along with nearly 700 yards rushing, hurt his knee in the Cougars 2nd to last game of the season and is out. His back up is a true freshman who was 18 of 43 passing in their season ending blowout loss at the hands of Memphis. They will also be without one of the top offensive playmakers, WR & kick returner Bryson Smith. On top of that, head coach Major Applewhite fired his defensive coordinator at the end of the season. This team seems to done with this season and looking ahead to next year. We know that isn’t the case with Army. One thing we know about the service academies is they will show up and play hard in their bowl games (16-8 ATS in bowl games since 2003). Army was easily the best of the academies this year with a 10-2 record. Let’s not forget one of the losses was 28-21 @ Oklahoma in overtime and the Cadets outgained the Sooners! It was easily the lowest point total for the Sooners this season (21 in regulation) as they topped 40 in every game but two (37 vs Iowa State was the other). That speaks volumes on how good this Army defense is. They ended the season ranked in the top 20 nationally in total defense, rush defense, pass defense, AND scoring defense. Houston, on the other hand, struggled to top the run this year allowing just under 200 YPG. And that was WITH All American DT Ed Oliver in the line up and as we stated he is sitting this one out. The Cougs beat Navy this year as the Middies were way down, however they allowed 344 yards rushing in that one. They’ll have big problems again here stopping an Army running attack that ranks #2 nationally averaging 297 YPG. We like Army to win by at least a TD in this one so we’ll lay the points.
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12-21-18 |
Florida International +7 v. Toledo |
|
35-32 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 39 m |
Show
|
#217 ASA 9* CFB PLAY ON Florida International (+) over Toledo, Friday at 12:30 PM ET NOTE - FRIDAY AFTERNOON GAME - Windy conditions expected in the Bahamas Bowl and this absolutely will negate some of the impact of Florida International QB James Morgan being downgraded to "out" for this game. They are expecting 25 to 35 MPH winds in Nassau on Friday which has dropped this total from 67 to 56! We’re not on the total but interesting to note the affect the strong winds will have on this game. The running game will now become more important of this game and FIU back up QB Christian Alexander, a junior is actually the much better runner in comparison with Morgan. Alexander hasn't seen a ton of action this season but he did complete 19 of 29 passes for 218 yards plus he ran for 98 yards on 14 carries for an average of 7 yards per carry. Morgan is a graduate transfer from Bowling Green and his insight into Toledo (both are MAC schools) is also a bonus in this game as he'll pass along plenty in game planning as he helps Alexander with this rare start. Though this will be an unexpected start for Alexander, he did see action in 8 of the Panthers 12 games this season. The Rockets have the more impressive numbers in terms of production on offense but they are also playing with their back up QB Eli Peters who stepped in the final 4 games for injured starter Mitchell Guadagni. Defensively FIU has a solid edge in our opinion. FIU has allowed 386 YPG on the season while Toledo has been rolled for 430 YPG. In road games this season, the Panthers have allowed just 22 points per game. As for Toledo, away from home this season the Rockets have allowed 34.6 points per game! The Rockets allowed only 13 points in their most recent game but that was at home vs Central Michigan who ranks 2nd to last nationally in total offense. Prior to that one, Toledo allowed 31 points or more in 7 of their previous 10 games since the season opener. With FIU's 28-25 loss to Marshall, the Panthers have now allowed 28 points or less in 8 of their last 11 games. Florida International is 9-2-1 ATS in their last dozen games against teams with a winning record. They are also a perfect 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season & 12-4-1 ATS in that role going back a few seasons. FIU’s Butch Davis is a veteran coach and gets the edge over Toledo’s Jason Candle who is in his 2nd year with the Rockets and this is his only head coaching experience. Davis took over a bad FIU program last year and turned them from a 4-8 team into an 8-5 team in one season. This year they sit at 8-4 looking for their first 9 win season ever. The venue also benefits FIU as they are a short hour flight from the Bahamas and definitely used the the warm, humid weather (supposed to be 80 degrees on Friday). The Toledo players may look at this as more of a vacation making the long trip from the cold Ohio weather. Grab the generous points!
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12-18-18 |
Northern Illinois +2 v. UAB |
|
13-37 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 31 m |
Show
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ASA 9* Northern Illinois (+) over UAB, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET – BOCA RATON BOWL - UAB comes into this game with the better record at 10-3 compared to Northern Illinois who is 8-5. However the Huskies have played the MUCH tougher schedule and it’s not even close. Only 9 teams in all of college football have had an easier schedule this year than UAB. The only decent non-conference game the Blazers played was vs Texas A&M and they lost that one 41-20. That game was also late in the season in the middle of the SEC season for A&M. The Aggies were in a perfect letdown spot coming off Ole Miss with LSU on deck and still dominated the game. Conference USA was not a strong league this year and that has shown true in the bowl games thus far. The two CUSA teams that have played thus far are Middle Tennessee State and North Texas and both were blown out despite facing teams that just lost their head coaches (App State & Utah State). UAB was 2-1 this year against those 2 teams but were outgained in all 3 games and their two wins were by 2 & 8 points. One of those wins was by 2-points over MTSU in the CUSA Championship game. NIU challenged themselves to say the least in the non-conference season as they faced Utah, BYU, Iowa, and Florida State! They struggled offensively in those games, which is understandable, but it also makes their overall stats for the season a bit misleading. Down the stretch this offense played quite well scoring 38, 36, and 30 points in 3 of their last 5 games. That includes an impressive come from behind 30-29 win over a very good Buffalo team in the MAC Championship game. Over their final 5 games, 3 vs bowl teams, the Huskies averaged nearly 400 YPG on offense. The defense is among the best in the nation allowing just 347 YPG on 4.6 PPG despite the tough schedule. We rated these defenses almost dead even. While UAB has better stats offensively, we rate them very close as well because of the strength of schedule difference. This game should be a pick-em on our opinion so we’re getting value with Northern Illinois here. UAB is a popular play here with over 70% of the overall spread tickets on the Blazers. That’s fine with us. That’s because since 2005, when a team gets more than 70% of the spread bets they are just 27-44-1 ATS (just 38%). Take Northern Illinois tonight.
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12-15-18 |
Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State |
Top |
13-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
32 h 15 m |
Show
|
ASA 10* Top Play ON Middle Tennessee State (+) over Appalachian State, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET - We don’t expect App State to be completely focused or prepared for this one. Their head coach, Scott Satterfield, took the head coaching job @ Louisville and took both coordinators with him. On top of that, their interim coach, Mark Ivey, who many of the players hoped would get the job was just eliminated from consideration. The new head coach, just named on Thursday, is an outsider from NC State so the emotional make up of the Mountaineers may not be at its best for this one. That won’t be a problem for MTSU. They are a senior laden team that really want this win. Starting QB Brent Stockstill is a 4-year starter that has over 12,000 passing yards and 105 TD passes! His dad, Rick, is the head coach at MTSU and you can guarantee this team is 100% focused on getting a win to close out this season. The Blue Raiders are coming off a disappointing loss in the Conference USA Championship game losing 27-25 vs UAB. We expect them to bounce back with a big performance here. MTSU has played the tougher schedule (79th nationally) facing 3 SEC teams and vs the 7 bowl teams they played, the Raiders were +39 YPG. App State has one of the easiest strength of schedule (112th nationally) and they were just +26 YPG in the 5 bowl teams they faced this season. MTSU will want to throw the ball here with their talented & experienced QB, it may look like they will have problems against an App State defense that has impressive numbers vs the pass. However, those numbers are as deceiving as they come. That’s because Mountaineers have played one of the easiest passing schedules in the country. The Sun Belt has a number of run heavy teams and that shows up in the defensive stats of Appalachian State. They have faced a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 75 in passing this year and four of their opponents ranked lower than 100. We expect Stockstill to be able to move the ball through the air in this one. App State relies very heavily on the run (42 carries per game) and the MTSU defense has been solid stopping the run this year allowing 4.1 YPC. If you take out their 3 games vs SEC opponents the Raider defense has very solid numbers allowing just 3.69 YPC. Middle Tennessee comes into this game with an 8-5 record with 3 of those setbacks vs SEC teams (all bowl teams). Their other two losses came by 2 points in the Conference USA Championship game and 3 points. We expect a close game here and with MTSU having the motivational edge, we give them a solid shot at the outright upset. Take the points.
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12-15-18 |
Arizona State v. Fresno State UNDER 54 |
|
20-31 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 55 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* Play ON: Under - Fresno State vs Arizona State in Las Vegas Bowl, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Coming into this match-up no one could really argue with the fact that the Sun Devils have a strong offense. However, the loss of wide receiver N'Keal Harry for this game (he opted to sit out the bowl) is a significant absence for ASU. Harry was Arizona State's leading receiver by far and is essentially like losing 1 TD and 100 receiving yards from your offense. He was far and away the leader of this receiving group. Considering that factor as well as the fact that Fresno State has allowed just 13.7 points per game and you can see why the under is offering some solid line value here. This total was creeping toward the mid-fifties and the Bulldogs actually hold the nation's longest streak (by far) of holding teams to 30 points or less. It is a 24-game streak! With Fresno State allowing only about 14 points per game this game, this bowl match-up reaching only into the 30s or 40s seems quite logical even with beautiful weather expected in Vegas Saturday. The Bulldogs defense ranks among the best in the nation in terms of creating takeaways. The Sun Devils defense has been a bend but don't break defense this season. The ASU yardage allowed stats sometimes do not impress and yet this is a team that held 9 of its first 10 opponents to 28 points or less. Also, in non-conference games this season Arizona State allowed an average of only 16 points per game. The Bulldogs have some impressive numbers on offense this season but those stats were inflated by games against bad defenses - the likes of Hawaii, UNLV, and New Mexico. Those opponents were 3 of Fresno State's 9 foes since October 1st. In their other 6 games these past two and a half months, the Bulldogs offense averaged only 23 points per game! Certainly not impressive and that included a game against a bad San Jose State team too! Per the above you can see why the forecast here is that this one should be a tight battle featuring some solid play on the defensive side of the ball and we’re on the UNDER.
|
12-15-18 |
North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State |
|
13-52 |
Loss |
-105 |
25 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* Play ON North Texas (+) over Utah State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - There is a strong probability that Utah State won't be completely focused nor fully prepared for this one. Their head coach, Matt Wells, left to take the head coaching job at Texas Tech and now the Aggies are being led by a co-defensive coordinator (Frank Maile) in this one. Also favoring North Texas in this match-up is that teams with bad ATS records (33% or less) have historically been good bets in bowl games. Those teams have gone 35-23-1 (60%) against the spread since 2005. North Texas fits within this criteria, as the Mean Green finished the regular season 4-8 ATS (33%). Even though UNT finished with a sub-par ATS record it could also be considered a bit of a statistical anomaly as the Mean Green actually won the yardage battle in all 12 of their games this season! In fact, on the season, North Texas averaged more than 100 yards per game than their foes. The Mean Green are solid defensively and allowing only 359.5 yards per game on the season. North Texas is on a 10-4 ATS run in non-conference action. Also, while UNT did win their final game of the regular season, Utah State suffered a momentum-killing (and very frustrating loss) at Boise State. That is worth taking note of because the Aggies are 3-8 SU (and ATS) when off a loss in conference action. Suffering that letdown against the Broncos and also dealing with the departure of their head coach, this is a tough spot for Utah State to be laying significant points. Against teams with a winning record, Utah State is on a 3-8 ATS (and 2-9 SU) run! Utah State's pass defense is likely to be exploited here as they closed out the season by allowing at least 307 passing yards in each of their four November games. We expect a rather tight game here and with North Texas having the program continuity edge - Utah State certainly dealing with distractions - we give the Mean Green a solid shot at the outright upset. Take the points.
|
12-01-18 |
Memphis +3.5 v. Central Florida |
|
41-56 |
Loss |
-120 |
25 h 28 m |
Show
|
#309 ASA 9* PLAY ON Memphis (+) over UCF, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET This is a revenger for the Tigers who faced off against UCF at home on October 13th and lost 31-30. Memphis led that game 30-17 at half and were held scoreless in the 2nd half in the 1-point loss. Not only that, Memphis lost twice last year to UCF including a 62-55 setback in OT in the AAC Championship game. The Tigers led that game at half as well and took a 7-point lead in the first OT only to lose in the 2nd OT. Memphis was hoping for this rematch and they get it. The one big difference is UCF QB and leader McKenzie Milton will not be playing in this game after a season ending injury last week vs USF. That’s simply too big of a loss to overcome for the Knights. To put his loss in perspective, Milton accounted for 1,200 total yards and 11 TD’s in those 3 games vs Memphis we discussed above. Even with that, the Tigers went to the wire with a chance to win in the most recent 2 match ups. Milton’s replacement is freshman Darriel Mack Jr who has very little experience. He started one game this year with Milton out and UCF topped a bad ECU team and Mack threw for just 69 yards. The Knights were actually outgained in that game by an ECU team that has just 3 wins on the season. For the season, Mack has attempted just 43 passes and completed less than 50% of those throws (just 4 yards per pass attempt). That should allow the Memphis defense to focus mainly on stopping the run which they’ve been solid at this year (3.9 YPC allowed). The Tigers have proven they can score a move the ball against a UCF defense that is the weak point of their team allowing over 400 YPG. UCF, with Mack now at QB, has not proven they can do the same. We’ll take the points here and call for Memphis to pull the upset which is not really an upset in our mind.
|
12-01-18 |
Stanford v. California +3.5 |
Top |
23-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
26 h 8 m |
Show
|
#334 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON California (+) over Stanford, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Stanford has dominated this series in recent years and that has resulted in some extra attention from the betting markets this week. The Cardinal have risen to as high as a 3 1/2 point favorite as of mid-day Friday and we feel we're getting excellent home dog value here. California has been the much better defense this season in comparison with Stanford. Although the Cardinal passing attack ranks the edge over the Golden Bears, the Cal pass defense is allowing nearly 100 passing yards less per game in comparison with the Stanford pass D. Though the Cardinal are off back to back wins, those victories came against UCLA and Oregon State! Prior to these B2B wins, Stanford had lost 4 of its 5 prior games and now the Cardinal take on a Cal team that has won 4 of its last 5 SU and gone 4-0-1 ATS in the process! The Bears opportunistic ways have been a recurring theme as Cal has forced a total of 13 turnovers the past 5 weeks. By comparison, Stanford has forced a total of only 3 turnovers in their last 4 games. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, California is 38-22 ATS (including 7-3 ATS in recent seasons). Stanford, when off a win over Pac-12 foe, has gone 5-10-2 ATS including 0-3-1 ATS this season. Grab the points with the undervalued home dog in the annual "Big Game" between these Pac-12 rivals Saturday.
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12-01-18 |
Marshall +4 v. Virginia Tech |
|
20-41 |
Loss |
-113 |
23 h 29 m |
Show
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#329 ASA 9* PLAY ON Marshall (+) over Virginia Tech, Saturday at Noon ET - The common thinking here will be to back the team the team that needs this game for bowl eligibility and plays in the tougher conference. However, Virginia Tech is off a rivalry game win over Virginia. Not only could that leave the Hokies running a little low on "fuel" here - both physically and mentally - that was also just the 2nd win for Virginia Tech in their past 7 games. Both wins have come by just 3 points. The Hokies are allowing 205 rushing yards per game this season while the Thundering Herd rush defense is surrendering only 100 yards per game. Also, Virginia Tech QB Willis has struggled in his last two games and has thrown 4 picks against just 2 TD's plus he has completed less than 50% of his passes. The Thundering Herd have been enjoying a resurgence since QB Green returned. He has thrown 6 TDs against 3 TDs in recent games while also completing close to 60% of his passes. Marshall is on a 12-3 ATS run as an underdog while Virginia Tech is on an overall 1-6 ATS run entering this one. The injury report for this game also shows that the Hokies are in much worse shape than the Thundering Herd in that department as well. Grab the points with the undervalued road dog in this non-conference match-up going very early Saturday.
|
11-30-18 |
Northern Illinois v. Buffalo -3.5 |
|
30-29 |
Loss |
-103 |
8 h 29 m |
Show
|
#304 ASA 9* PLAY ON Buffalo (-) over Northern Illinois, Friday at 7 PM ET - The Huskies are stumbling into the MAC Championship Game as Northern Illinois is off back to back losses. The Bulls, on the other hand, are 7-1 (SU and ATS) in their 8 MAC games this season and are very hungry to finally erase their history of struggles against the Huskies. Undoubtedly, Buffalo is favored over Northern Illinois here with good reason! Much is made of the Huskies strong defense but the Bulls defensive stats in terms of overall yardage allowed are equal to that of Northern Illinois. Also, Buffalo has the much more dangerous offense and is averaging 15 points more (and 101 yards more) per game in comparison with the Huskies. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois is 0-4 (SU and ATS) as a neutral field underdog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. Grab the Bulls and lay the small points. Buffalo rolls in the MAC Championship Game early Friday evening.
|
11-24-18 |
Arizona State v. Arizona +1.5 |
|
41-40 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 50 m |
Show
|
#234 ASA 9* play on Arizona (+) over Arizona State, 3:30 PM ET - The home team has won each of the last five meetings between Arizona and Arizona State. The Wildcats are seeking revenge here as they lost last year when the Sun Devils came back from being down by double digits to win by a dozen points on their home field. Look for home field to again be a key factor in this season's match-up. Both teams are off losses last week but there is a key scheduling edge here the way we see it. That's because, although both teams played in the Pacific Northwest last week (ASU in Eugene, Oregon against Ducks and Wildcats in Pullman, WA against the Cougars), Arizona just enjoyed the benefits of a bye two weeks ago. As for Arizona State, their bye was quite some time back and this is their sixth straight week of action. Also, for the Sun Devils, this is their third road game in the past five weeks. Another factor here is that Arizona State already has their 6th win but Arizona still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. The Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Arizona State is 2-4 ATS (and 0-6 SU!) in road games with a total set between 63.5 and 70 points. That system fits here and, base on the line here, that 0-6 SU run is certainly worth noting. Arizona is already 3-0 ATS this season when off a loss against a conference foe and the Wildcats are set up well to add another W to that record. In home games with a total set between 63.5 and 70 points, Arizona has a record of 17-6 SU the last 23. We won’t be surprised when the Wildcats win this game in a blowout at home. Bet Arizona!
|
11-24-18 |
Minnesota v. Wisconsin -11.5 |
Top |
37-15 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 46 m |
Show
|
#170 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin (-) over Minnesota, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for Wisconsin. They are coming off a rejuvenating, come from behind win @ Purdue last week and it looks like QB Jack Coan finally found his stride. It was his 3rd start and in his first 2 the play calling was very conservative. We liked the way the game was called offensively much better last week as the passing game became a threat. That passing game should be wide open this week vs the Gophers as Wisconsin’s running game should be very effective. The Badgers lead the Big Ten in rushing and 4th nationally at 277 YPG. UW gashed Purdue for well over 300 yards rushing last week which opened up the passing game. Same scenario this week. They are facing a Minnesota defense that has allowed over 300 YPG rushing on the road this year including 430 yards by Illinois in their most recent road tilt. The Gophs are the youngest team in the nation (53% of their roster are freshmen) and because of that they’ve been solid at home but terrible on the road. They are 0-4 in road games allowing 45 PPG. Minnesota had a great shot at their 6th win last week at home vs a Northwestern team that had already clinched the Big Ten West and had nothing to play for. Even with that, the Cats won by 10. We have a strong feeling that Minnesota knows that was their chance to get to bowl eligible and will have a tough time in this game. Wisconsin has won this meeting 14 straight seasons and the coaches and players are stressing this week they do not want to be the team to blow that streak. The last 8 Badger wins in this series have come by double digits and in their home finale they will be sky high. Another double digit win for Wisconsin and this one could get ugly if they get up early which we think they will.
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11-24-18 |
Purdue v. Indiana OVER 64.5 |
|
28-21 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 14 m |
Show
|
#211/212 ASA 9* PLAY ON Over – Purdue @ Indiana, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - The weather looks decent here with slight chance of rain but 10 MPH winds which is the more important factor. We think both these offenses will have a field day in this one. Purdue has scored 38 or more in 5 of their last 7 games. They face an IU defense that has given up at least 31 points in 6 straight. Indiana had scored 28+ in 3 straight entering last week’s game @ Michigan and then put up more yardage on the Wolverines than anyone has all season along with 21 points. These are the two worst pass defenses in the Big Ten so we expect a lot of balls in the air, stopping the clock more often, and opening up the potential of big plays in the passing game. QB’s Peyton Ramsey (IU) & David Blough (Purdue) are ranked 2nd and 3rd in the Big Ten in passing yards per game so they should have a field day in this one. We like both teams to get to 30+ here and we’ll take the OVER.
|
11-23-18 |
Washington +3 v. Washington State |
|
28-15 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 13 m |
Show
|
#143 ASA 9* PLAY ON Washington (+) over Washington State, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - The Huskies have dominated this series with 4 straight wins both SU and ATS. This is a big rivalry game and this year's carries some extra meaning for certain. Not only are these teams battling it out at the top of the Pac-12 North, the Cougars are going for an all-time record 11th win on the season. Of course with the low spread posted on this game, it may seem enticing to back Washington State on a 13-game winning streak at home and also having already tied the school record with a 10th win on the year. However, Washington is not going to relinquish their supremacy in this rivalry so easily! The fact is that the Huskies have played a tougher strength of schedule this season. Also, Washington is offering great value here because they've had a tough season ATS and this is overshadowing the fact that they have had a solid season SU. The Cougars have been the hot ATS team and are garnering the attention of the betting markets. One of things we favor overall in terms of betting situations is "running road dogs" that also play solid defense. The Huskies are gaining more than twice as much rushing yardage per game as the Cougars this season. Also, in the last 2 meetings between these teams, Washington has out-gained Washington State by an average of over 200 rushing yards per game in the last two meetings between these rivals. The Huskies are allowing just 16.6 points per game on the season and have allowed 24 points or less in 10 of 11 games this season. The Cougars have allowed 28 points or more in 4 of their last 8 games. Grab the road dog. Washington rolls in this one Friday evening.
|
11-23-18 |
East Carolina +19.5 v. Cincinnati |
|
6-56 |
Loss |
-105 |
28 h 9 m |
Show
|
#117 ASA 9* PLAY ON East Carolina (+) over Cincinnati, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - The Bearcats officially took themselves out of the AAC Championship race last week with a 38-13 loss @ UCF. That was basically a championship type game as the winner was locked into the AAC Title game. It’s going to be very tough for the Bearcats to bounce back and play at a high level this week vs ECU. Cincy is going to a bowl game no matter what so while this one isn’t meaningless, it’s close. The Pirates are MUCH better than their 3-7 record might indicate. They are actually outgaining their opponents by 58 YPG despite their 3 wins. This team can hang around because they can score. They average 456 YPG offensively and they’ve outgained 7 of their 10 opponents. They’ve hung in fairly well against the AAC other top teams this year with turnovers usually taking them out of contention for upsets in those games. Earlier this year against UCF they lost 37-10, however the Pirates were +7 first downs, +70 in total yardage in that game. They also had 5 turnovers, missed a FG, were shut out on downs at the UCF 8-yard line, AND gave up a 94-yard fumble recovery for a TD. That game was much closer than the final score indicated. Against the other two teams vying for a spot in the AAC Championship game, the Pirates were competitive as well. They lost by 18 to Memphis but it was a 4-point game entering the 4th quarter. Against Houston the same scenario. They lost by 22 but Houston returned a fumble for a TD and ECU had more first downs & more yardage. Cincy comes in a bit overvalued as they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 to the spread. Now laying a huge number in a bad spot we look for ECU to cover this spread.
|
11-22-18 |
Colorado State v. Air Force -14.5 |
|
19-27 |
Loss |
-107 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
|
#112 ASA 9* play on Air Force (-) over Colorado State, 3:30 PM ET - The Falcons have out-gained the Rams by a combined 547 rushing yards in the past two meetings. Of course Air Force is known for their ground attack but Colorado State has held a passing edge in the past two meetings. The Rams passing game may not be so successful in this one however. They have had only one strong game in the air out of 5 games away from home this season. In their other 4 games away from Fort Collins, Colorado State has averaged only 195 passing yards per game. The Rams are off a very tough late-game loss to Utah State as they very nearly pulled off a huge upset. That is the type of defeat that tends to be the most difficult to bounce back from. Colorado State also is just 1-4 ATS in games not played at Fort Collins. The Rams are 2-6 ATS the last 8 times as a conference dog of more than 14 points when off a SU loss. In road games with a total set between 56.5 and 63 points the Rams are on a 9-20 ATS run. All 3 of the wins that Air Force has at home this season have come by 18 points or more. The average margin of victory for Air Force in their home wins has been 28 points this season. The Rams last 4 losses have been by an average margin of 21 points. The forecast is more of the same in this one. We won’t be surprised when the Falcons win this game in a blowout at home. Lay the points!
|
11-17-18 |
Cincinnati +7.5 v. Central Florida |
|
13-38 |
Loss |
-120 |
25 h 17 m |
Show
|
#353 ASA 9* play on Cincinnati (+) over Central Florida, 8PM ET - We have patiently waited for the right spot to fade UCF and the day is here. Based on the strength of schedule these two teams are much closer than you might think but UCF is living on last year’s reputation and a 22-game winning streak. That has forced the oddsmakers to over-adjust the Knights number here. UCF has been out-gained in 3 of their last four games yet went 4-0 SU. Cincinnati has out-gained every opponent but two this season and in those two games they were minus -6-yards and minus -2-yards. Central Florida has a total 36-minute time of possession deficit in their last four games combined and their big play ability will be nullified by a Bearcat defense that allows just 4.2 yards per play which is 5th best in college football. UCF relies on a running game that averages 5.0YPC but Cincinnati gives up just 3.1YPC (14th). Both teams recently played Navy on their home fields and the statistics drastically favor Cincinnati’s results. The Bearcats out-gained Navy by 280 total yards and held the potent Midshipmen rushing attack to just 124 yards and 2.4YPC. That’s quite the defensive statement considering Navy is 3rd in the nation in rushing at 274YPG. Cincinnati beat Navy 42-0. Last week UCF beat Navy 35-24 but the Midshipmen held an 11-minute TOP advantage, rushed for 375 yards at a 6.0YPC average. UCF did put up 300 yards rushing themselves but that was against a Navy defense that is 95th in the country in stopping the run so we’re not impressed. This is clearly a huge game for both teams but Central Florida is carrying the weight of this unbeaten streak and the pressure continues to mount. UCF has an average margin of victory of +23PPG but Cincinnati has a MOV of +20.1PPG and cover the spread by an average of nearly 11PPG. We won’t be surprised when the Bearcats win this game outright on the road. Grab the points!
|
11-17-18 |
Iowa State v. Texas OVER 46.5 |
Top |
10-24 |
Loss |
-115 |
25 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA 10* TOP PLAY Over the total – Iowa State @ Texas, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This total is well too low in our opinion. We had it projected in the mid 50’s and we’re getting a full TD+ less than that here. Part of the reason for the low number might be the recent history between these teams which has been low scoring. However, keep in mind neither of these coaches have been at the school very long (Herman in his 2nd year @ Texas & Campbell in his 3rd year @ ISU) so those historical numbers aren’t as important in our analysis. Last year Texas won this match up 17-7 and the year before it was Texas 27-6. Those totals were set at 62 & 69 respectively and now this one sits below 50 because of those two results. The ISU offense is much improved this year while the Texas defense is down allowing 420 YPG. We see no way that UT shuts down the Cyclone offense that has scored 48, 30, 40, 27, and 28 points their last 5 games. The Longhorn defense has allowed at least 34 points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Longhorn defense did shut down TCU & KSU to 16 & 14 points respectively in their first two conference games but those are the 2 of the 3 worst offenses in the Big 12 in scoring offense with the other being Kansas who Texas plays next weekend. Even with the poor offenses in play in those two games, the totals were BOTH set higher than this on (48.5 & 50). Herman has his offense humming in his 2nd year as head coach. They have scored at least 28 points in all but 2 games this year. They play fast averaging 76 plays per game which is 16th nationally. They are a tough offense to defend as they are very balanced. Iowa State’s overall defensive numbers are off in our mind. They played very well against weak offenses this year (Kansas & TCU) and have one outlier game where they shut down WVU’s offense to 14 points. That is not the norm for this team. It was just one of those games in our opinion. Last week it may look like they played great defensively holding a middle of the pack Baylor offense to just 14 points. Take a closer look. The Bears had over 500 yards of total offense but missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs twice inside the ISU 15-yard line. That 28-14 final was very misleading as Baylor potentially left 20+ points off the board in that game. Even with that those two got to 42 points which isn’t far off this posted total. Offensively, ISU struggled early in the year but since switching to Brock Purdy at QB in early October. In his 5 starts the Cyclones are averaging 34 PPG and have not been held under 27 in any of those games. We also like the fact that ISU tends to play how their opponent plays. They can play fast or slow. They were in grinder, low-scoring games TCU & Kansas but vs teams that are similar in style to Texas (Okla St, Texas Tech, & Oklahoma) they were involved in high scoring games (90, 71, and 64 points scored respectively). In games they can get a lead and grind the offense they do that. In games where they have trouble slowing down the other team, which we feel they will here, they have to score to keep up and they do just that. We don’t see either defense slowing down the opposing offense in this game. Both teams have been quite efficient on a yards per point basis with Texas averaging 12.9 & ISU 13.7. The weather looks perfect in Austin with temps in the mid 60’s and light wins in the forecast at gametime. This one goes OVER this total easily.
|
11-17-18 |
Wisconsin v. Purdue -4 |
Top |
47-44 |
Loss |
-105 |
21 h 47 m |
Show
|
#326 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Purdue (-) over Wisconsin, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the Boilers. They are playing their final home game and need this win to become bowl eligible (currently a 5-5 record). If they don’t get this game they have to go on the road next week to arch rival Indiana and try to get a win in order to qualify for the post-season. Purdue has been up one week, down the next for a full month now. They throttled Ohio State 49-20 here then followed that up with a stinker @ Michigan State the next week. They came back home after that loss and beat a very good Iowa team and then got creamed @ Minnesota. Now back at home after that embarrassing performance (their worst of the season) we would look for a very good game out of the Boilers. This team has beaten 3 straight ranked teams at home (BC, Ohio State, and Iowa) and now they face a Wisconsin team that is absolutely trending downward. The Badgers are already bowl eligible, they are coming off a huge game @ Penn State (a 22-10 loss), and they have their biggest rivalry game vs Minnesota next Saturday. We expect back up QB Jack Coan to be under center again this week although that has not been finalized and probably won’t be until gametime. Starter Alex Hornibrook is in concussion protocol and didn’t play last Saturday after suffering his 2nd concussion in 3 weeks vs Rutgers. We anticipate the UW coaching staff to be ultra conservative with Hornibrook moving forward due to his 2 concussions and the fact they are bowl eligible but out of the Big Ten West race. If either play, we still like Purdue. Coan simply doesn’t have enough experience and they have been very conservative offensively because of that. Even down 12 in the fourth quarter last week the play calling was not wide open to say the least. In the two games that Coan has started the Badgers have scored 17 & 10 points. He has thrown for 158 yards and 60 yards in those two games. That makes the offense one-dimensional and the Purdue defense will load the box to stop the run. It’s a Purdue defense that was gashed on the ground by Minnesota last week in their letdown spot but had been playing quite well vs the run leading into that game. If you take out last week’s debacle @ Minnesota, the Boilermaker rush defense is allowing 132 YPG in league play which would be good for 4th best. The weak spot of Purdue’s defense is their pass defense allowing 278 YPG however Wisconsin is not a team that will be able to take advantage of that. The Badger defense is WAY down compared to previous years. They are very young on the back end and their top run stuffer, Olive Sagapolo, is out. After allowing less than 100 YPG rushing in each of the last 3 season, the Badger stop unit is giving up 175 YPG on the ground this season. Purdue’s offense is balanced and potent and they put points on the board (4th in the Big Ten averaging 32 PPG – conference games). They look even more impressive when playing at home as they’ve scored 37, 30, 49, and 38 points their last 4 at Ross Ade Stadium. The Wisconsin defense isn’t playing well enough to stop Purdue and their offense isn’t playing well enough to keep up. Add in the motivation factors discussed above and Purdue rolls in this one.
|
11-17-18 |
Michigan State v. Nebraska +100 |
|
6-9 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 15 m |
Show
|
#416 ASA 9* PLAY ON Nebraska (+) over Michigan State, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - It is hard to envision the Spartans having a lot of energy or enthusiasm for this game Saturday.. Michigan State badly wanted the game last week when they hosted Ohio State. The Spartans actually were in that game for quite a while before the Buckeyes pulled away late. Not only is that the type of big game loss that can leave a team flat, this also is a situation where Michigan State really doesn't have much to play for either. The Spartans already have 6 wins and are simply "playing out" the regular season since they've already clinched a bowl berth. As for the Cornhuskers, though they have a 3-7 record on the season, they've been playing their best football of late. Nebraska had a write-in game on October 27th against Bethune-Cookman which they won easily but did not cover the huge spread. However, the Huskers are 5-0 ATS their last 5 games in Big Ten action and the Huskers have scored 46 points per game in their last 4 games overall. Granted one of those was the Bethune-Cookman game but the fact is the last time Nebraska failed to cover a Big Ten game was their late September loss to Purdue. This Huskers team has clearly been playing its best football of the season the past 6 weeks. Though the Spartans have a fantastic defense (particularly against the run) one could easily question their motivation here and also how much they'll have left in the tank. Michigan State has played a grueling stretch as their last 6 games the past 6 weeks have included just one easy opponent (Maryland) and that was on the road. Big battles recently with Michigan, Penn State, the potent Purdue offense and also Ohio State could easily have this team "out of gas" for this one. The Huskers are likely to prove to be the hungrier team and they have averaged 538 yards per game their last 7 games. Conversely, the Spartans have averaged just 287.5 yards of offense per game their last 4 games. Again, opponents faced is a factor in this but, overall on the season these teams have played very similar schedules and yet the Cornhuskers are trending up while Michigan State is clearly trending down here late in the season. Nebraska has won 6 of the last 8 meetings with Michigan State SU and is on a 6-2 ATS run in the last 8 meetings with the Spartans. This season Big Ten teams are 1-5 ATS their next game after facing Ohio State. In other words, taking on the Buckeyes tends to take a lot out of teams both physically and emotionally and we fully expect a flat game from the Spartans in this one. The play here is Nebraska
|
11-16-18 |
Boise State v. New Mexico OVER 61.5 |
|
45-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* PLAY ON Over the Total - Boise @ New Mexico, Friday at 9:00 PM ET
The Broncos are off back to back strong efforts on defense but are now in a "sandwich spot" as they are off a big win versus Fresno State and have Utah State on deck. While they still should certainly score plenty of points against a poor Lobos defense tonight, don't be surprised if New Mexico scores their fair share as well. Boise State has allowed an average of 28.6 ppg on the road this season. The Broncos are 6-1 to the over in road games with a total set between 56.5 and 63 points. Boise State is 6-2 to the over in games against teams with a losing record. The Lobos are 7-2 to the over this season. Also the weather is ideal in Albuquerque for this evening's match-up. Take the OVER in New Mexico tonight.
|
11-15-18 |
Tulane v. Houston OVER 67 |
|
17-48 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* PLAY ON Over the Total - Tulane @ Houston, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET
The Cougars run defense got gashed last week as the loss of defensive tackle Ed Oliver is significant and he is out again this week. The Green Wave defense also got gashed last week and both of these teams have potent offenses. Tulane is currently being led by LSU transfer Justin McMillan at QB. The Green Wave signal-caller threw for nearly 400 yards last week and had 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. McMillan should feast on a Cougars defense that has allowed 44 points per game their last 4 games. The Houston offense is averaging 47.8 ppg their season and also 546 yards per game on the year. You can see why the projection here is for plenty of points. This is a big total at 67 points but the over should prove to be a very worthy investment. The over is 7-2 this season in Cougars games played on turf. Take the OVER tonight.
|
11-14-18 |
Buffalo v. Ohio UNDER 67 |
|
17-52 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* PLAY ON Under the Total - Buffalo @ Ohio, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET
Luckily for Bobcats fans this game is being played Wednesday rather than Thursday. The weather in Athens, Ohio is expected to be a wintery mix starting overnight Wednesday. Even though this game will be completed before the weather gets truly nasty, this total is far too big considering the cold weather in this one as well as the huge implications this game has. The Bulls can wrap up the MAC East with a win here and the Bobcats can stay alive in the race with a win here. That said, this game will be played like a typical playoff game and the total is far too lofty considering that fact. Yes the teams have potent offenses but look for this to be a ground-based affair with plenty of running clock. Bulls game have resulted in an under in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Also, 14 of Buffalo's last 19 games as an underdog have resulted in an under. In games with a line between +3 and -3, Bobcats games have resulted in an under in 6 of their last 7. Ohio University's MAC games have resulted in an under in 16 of the last 22. Take the UNDER tonight.
|
11-13-18 |
Western Michigan v. Ball State OVER 57.5 |
|
41-42 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* PLAY ON Over the Total - Western Michigan @ Ball State, Tuesday at 6:00 PM ET
The Broncos have allowed 55 points per game their last two games. The Cardinals have allowed 46.3 points per game their last three games. Both defenses are struggling as you can see. Though it will cold in Muncie, Indiana tonight there is no concern about precipitation or wind being a factor. Both teams should be able to light up the scoreboard as a result. This is especially true considering the way these defenses have been playing. The last 6 times these teams have met at Ball State the over has cashed in 5 times! Per our math model, the over cashes in tonight to move to an 8-2 record in the last 10 November games for Western Michigan. Take the OVER tonight.
|
11-10-18 |
Florida State +17 v. Notre Dame |
Top |
13-42 |
Loss |
-115 |
31 h 45 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State (+) over Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #215
Notre Dame QB Ian Book is now listed as OUT for this match-up. This is a BIG loss for the Fighting Irish as he was the starter over Brandon Winbush for good reason! The fact is that Winbush has great running ability but he struggles as a passer and is known for making costly mistakes. That sets this one up very well for a big play on the large underdog. Florida State has a solid rushing defense and has allowed just 2.6 yards per game and 102.6 yards per game on the ground their last 6 games! That said, Notre Dame's offense could really struggle to move the ball in this game. The Seminoles have, of course, had a very disappointing season but that makes this a fantastic opportunity for them that will bring out the best in a roster that is still loaded with plenty of talent. Florida State still needs two more wins for bowl eligibility and this match-up at Notre Dame is just one of three remaining games. While an outright upset may be asking a lot, the Seminoles are absolutely relishing the idea of a chance to end the unbeaten season that Notre Dame has enjoyed to this point. These teams, in their recent meetings, have a knack for playing tight games decided by a single score and that is what our math model is forecasting for this game as well. Florida State has won the last 3 meetings. Although FSU is off an ugly loss at NC State, the Noles actually won the yardage battle in that game so the final score was deceiving. Notre Dame is 1-8 ATS in home games where they are favored by more than 7 points! This certainly has not been a good role for them and the Fighting Irish are already 0-3 in that role this season as they did not come anywhere close to covering versus Ball State, Vanderbilt, and Pittsburgh in this role this season! The Seminoles are 9-2 ATS (and 11-1 SU) in their last dozen non-conference games! Notre Dame is 1-7 ATS in November games the past two seasons! We expect those late season struggles at the betting window to continue here for the Fighting Irish. Grab the points with Florida State as an undervalued big road underdog Saturday evening.
|
11-10-18 |
Ohio State v. Michigan State +4 |
|
26-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 54 m |
Show
|
ASA 9* PLAY ON Michigan State (+) over Ohio State, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #220 - We obviously follow the Big Ten as close as anyone and something is definitely off with this OSU team. We’ve heard rumblings that there are cohesion problems in the locker room and it’s showing up on the field. This team is nowhere near as good as recent OSU teams and their 8-1 record is masking some problems. Three weeks ago the Buckeyes were blasted by 29 points @ Purdue. They had a bye coming off that loss leading into last week’s home game vs Nebraska and if they were ever going to bounce back and destroy someone it was last week. They didn’t. In fact a 2-win Nebraska team actually led at half and took OSU to the wire at the Horseshoe. While they did run the ball pretty well against a terrible Husker defense the Buckeyes have had trouble running the ball for most of the season. They will continue those struggles again this week versus a Michigan State defense that ranks #1 nationally allowing just 77 YPG on the ground. It’s been no better on the defensive side of the ball for the Bucks. They are allowing 402 YPG this season which is a full 100 yards worse than a year ago. They have allowed 26 points or more 6 times already this year. Last year they allowed 26+ only 3 times all season. MSU got starting QB Lewerke back off an injury in last week’s 24-3 win @ Maryland. They are playing very well winning 3 of their last 4 including wins over Penn State & Purdue. Their lone loss over the last month was a 21-7 setback vs Michigan which doesn’t look all that bad based on how the Wolverines are destroying everyone else. The host has a big edge defensively and their offense has started to look much better over the last month. Last week they ran for 269 yards vs Maryland and if they can run the ball here and take some pressure off Lewerke their offense will do very well here vs a struggling OSU defense that has allowed 80 point and almost 1,000 yards in their last 2 games alone. The underdog has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and we’ll call for the Spartans to win this game outright at home.
|
11-10-18 |
South Carolina v. Florida -6 |
|
31-35 |
Loss |
-103 |
24 h 17 m |
Show
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ASA 9* PLAY ON Florida (-) over South Carolina, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #194 - After 4 straight wins in SEC action, Florida has now last back to back games. Not only is this week's game versus South Carolina a revenge game for the Gators, it is also their final SEC game of the season. In other words, there is little doubt that Florida is looking to come out strong here after losing their annual showdown with Georgia and then falling short versus Missouri last week. Gators head coach Dan Mullen was previously at Mississippi State from 2010 to 2017. When the Bulldogs entered a game off 2 or more consecutive SU losses, Mullen coached them to an 11-4 SU record and 10-4 ATS! In other words, look for Mullen to have his team ready to respond here! The Gamecocks enters this game off an upset win. Coincidentally, that upset win was at Mullen's old employer in Mississippi State. Though South Carolina's offense impressed, the Gamecocks were outgained by over 100 yards as their defense struggled badly. Also, this is coach Will Muschamp's third season with the Gamecocks. This is the first time this season they've won back to back games and, in Muschamp's tenure at South Carolina, when the Gamecocks are on a winning streak of 2 or more games and on the road, they've lost both times and each defeat came by a margin of at least 13 points. South Carolina is also a long-term 2-11 ATS in road games with a total set in a range of 52.5 and 56 points. Per all of the above, you can see why we’re calling for the Gators to win this one by double digits in a home blowout.
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11-10-18 |
Navy +25 v. Central Florida |
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24-35 |
Win
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100 |
24 h 60 m |
Show
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ASA 9* PLAY ON Navy (+) over Central Florida, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #135 - The Knights entered last week in a battle with two teams in the AAC East Division. Those two teams were Temple and Cincinnati. With that being said, this is a classic trap game this week for UCF. The Knights defeated Temple last week but were out-gained in the game plus allowed a ridiculous 670 yards. That was a key win for Central Florida and now next week's game is even bigger as they host Cincinnati! The point is that Navy (with a 2-7 record) is unlikely to have the full attention of the Knights here and that could certainly prove to be dangerous. The Midshipmen are a long-term 16-4 ATS as a road dog of 21.5 points or more. This has plenty to do with their style of play as it makes it difficult for teams to truly blow them out. Navy's offense is a ground-based attack and teams that run the ball well are able to control the clock in games and also keep the ball out of the opponents hands. That is the game plan again here of course and, though UCF is clearly the better team, the Knights are also clearly in a bad scheduling spot and will have a lot of trouble getting this margin above the two TD mark. Despite the large difference in records between these teams they are statistically equal except for the Knights passing attack on offense. That is an edge UCF has but it is not enough of an edge for this type of overlay on a game and this is particularly true when one considers that Navy has played the tougher schedule this season too! Despite last week's ugly loss at Cincinnati, the Midshipmen are still an incredible 13-4 ATS the last 17 times they have faced a team with a winning percentage above .800 that is off a SU win. Of course that system fits again here for Navy this week against undefeated UCF. Though the Knights have extra rest here, Central Florida is actually a poor 3-6 ATS when playing with 8 days of rest between games and the look ahead factor here is a huge one for the Knights. We’ll call for the Midshipmen to stay well within the big number in this one.
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11-09-18 |
Fresno State v. Boise State +3 |
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17-24 |
Win
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100 |
12 h 36 m |
Show
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ASA 9* PLAY ON Boise State (+) over Fresno State, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - It’s not often we get a chance to take Boise at home as an underdog. In fact, the last time the Broncos were getting points at home was 17 years ago back in 2001. That’s a span of 111 straight home games as a favorite until tonight. This is a team that has the best home field advantage in America. Since September of 2001 the Broncos have a 105-6 record at home! Fresno has won and covered 7 in a row and now they come in overvalued. The Bulldog defense has phenomenal numbers allowing just 12 PPG. While they are good, they aren’t that good. That’s because they haven’t played a single offense ranked in the top 40 in total offense this season! Zero. The three best offenses they’ve played (Minnesota, Hawaii, and Toledo) have all put up 20 or more on this defense. Boise will be the best offense they’ve faced this season by far coming in ranked 20th in total offense averaging 468 YPG on 6.3 YPP. Boise’s QB Rypien has been in many big games in his successful career as he has thrown for almost 13,000 yards and 84 TD’s. We’ll take him at home in a game of this magnitude. FSU’s offensive stats sit in a similar situation. They rank 43rd nationally in total offense however they should be better than that based on the defenses they have faced this season. They’ve only played one team ranked higher than 76th in total defense and 5 of their 9 opponents rank 100th or lower in total defense. This Boise team will be easily the best team Fresno has faced this year. The Bulldogs have not played a close game since their 21-14 loss @ Minnesota and the Gophs have shown they are one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. How will they react in a tight game which this one is destined to be? Not as well as the home team that expect to win every game at home. Boise was favored by 6.5 @ Fresno last year. They were also favored by 10 in the 2nd meeting of the year which was the MWC Championship game. Now they are getting points at home? Bad line in our mind and we like Boise to pull the upset on Friday night.
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11-08-18 |
Wake Forest v. NC State OVER 67.5 |
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27-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ North Carolina State Wolfpack, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #109
The Demon Deacons are allowing 43.6 ppg in ACC games this season. The Wolfpack have allowed 40 ppg in their last 3 games. Both teams have been moving the ball well (and Wake Forest has QB depth behind Sam Hartman - out for the year with injury). The Demon Deacons have piled up 226.2 rushing yards per game this season. NC State has thrown for 322.9 yards per game this season and the Wake Forest defense can't stop the run or the pass. The Wolfpack defense also has trended downward in recent weeks. Per our computer math model, this game is expected to play out as a very high-scoring shootout with punts being few and far between. The teams are projected to score on nearly every drive in the game. Bet the OVER in this Thursday early evening match-up.
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11-07-18 |
Toledo +3.5 v. Northern Illinois |
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15-38 |
Loss |
-107 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Toledo Rockets (+) over Northern Illinois Huskies, Wednesday at 8 PM ET: Game #105
When Toledo is a road dog of less than 6 points in a conference game and facing a team with a winning record, they've gone 10-1 ATS their last 11. The most recent occurrence was at Western Michigan two weeks ago. The Rockets were very close to the point-spread range they are in for this game and Toledo beat the Broncos 51-24. Northern Illinois is 2-7 ATS their last 9 home games when facing a team with a winning percentage of .401 or greater. The Huskies are off a big win last week at Akron but previous to that game Northern Illinois was averaging just 17 points per game this season. The Huskies do have a very strong defense but their offense has struggled for nearly the entire season and ranks as one of the worst in the nation. This will spell trouble as they try to match scores with a Rockets offense that is certainly a strength. Toledo has been on a roll in recent games with back to back wins and averaging 48 points per game game. Look for QB Eli Peters, filling in for the injured Mitchell Guadagni, to continue to get the job done for the Rockets as he has been impressive thus far. Per the above situational ATS edges, this is a 17-3 (85%) spot in favor of Toledo. We'll grab the undervalued road dog in this Wednesday evening match-up.
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11-06-18 |
Kent State +20.5 v. Buffalo |
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14-48 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Kent State Golden Flashes (+) over Buffalo Bulls, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #101
We were waiting on the weather report for this one and now feel very comfortable with grabbing the big points in this one. This game is being played in upstate New York in Amherst which is just slightly north of Buffalo. Of course Buffalo is known for bad weather from time to time and, in this case, strong winds are whipping up right off the shores of Lake Erie and into the Buffalo area. A high wind warning has been issued and continues into the overnight hours. The point is that there is not expected to be any significant letup by the time this game kicks off at 7:30 ET. In fact, the winds may be at their peak at that time. The reason this is so significant is that it is hard for a team to run up the score when a teams passing game and kicking game is limited due to winds. The Bulls are the better team as you can tell from the huge line here but they're going to be forced to rely on their ground game and try to grind out a win. Also, Kent State has impressed us in terms of playing hard for their new coach this season. The Golden Flashes will not lay down here and they will play hard for the full sixty minutes. As a result of the above (including the weather element), this game is likely to be much closer than many expect. We'll grab the undervalued big road dog in this Tuesday early evening match-up.
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11-03-18 |
Missouri +6.5 v. Florida |
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38-17 |
Win
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100 |
28 h 24 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Missouri Tigers (+) over Florida Gators, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #337
Missouri's overall 4-4 record on the season, on the surface if you will, does not impress. However, two of their losses have come by 2 points and 1 point. This Tigers team is very close to being a 6-2 team and certainly holds the edge in terms of overall offensive productivity when comparing Missouri with Florida. Also, the Gators may not have a lot left in the tank after going toe to toe with Georgia last week. The Bulldogs have a way of pounding teams that leaves them battered and bruised the next week and Florida was outgained by nearly 150 yards in that 19 point loss last week. The Gators are 1-6 ATS their last 7 in their game following Georgia. Once again, look for Florida (very disappointed by last week's loss) to fall flat here the week after facing the Bulldogs. The Tigers are fired up after a tight one point loss to Kentucky that was a controversial finish. Missouri allowed just 15 points in that loss and here's an interesting stat for you: the Tigers are 7-0 SU the last 7 times they've been off a game where they held their opponent to 21 points or less. Look for that stat to hold true again here this week as there is most definitely strong potential for a road upset here so we're grabbing the points in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.
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11-03-18 |
Penn State v. Michigan -12 |
Top |
7-42 |
Win
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100 |
27 h 60 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:45 PM ET: Game #406
The Wolverines are out for revenge in a big way at The Big House Saturday! Heading into last year's match-up in Happy Valley at Penn State, Michigan had rolled to 3 straight wins (and 3-0 ATS) in their last 3 meetings with the Nittany Lions. Then, inexplicably last season, the Wolverines got rolled by 4 TD's in last season's match-up. The set up for this season's rematch is perfect for Michigan. Big Blue is off their bye week and they have lowly Rutgers up next. In other words, full focus and attention is on Penn State here. When you look at points allowed this season the Nittany Lions 22.2 points allowed doesn't look too bad in comparison with Michigan's 14.4 points allowed per game. However, there is a huge difference between the level of play on defense in comparing these two teams. The Wolverines have allowed an average of 220 yards per game on the season! That ranks Michigan as the #1 defense in the nation! As for Penn State, they've allowed an average of 424.4 yards per game their last 5 games. This stretch included losses to Ohio State and Michigan State as well as unimpressive (and somewhat fortunate) wins over Indiana and Iowa. Penn State, simply put, is "on the fade" right now and Michigan is on an entirely different level. The Wolverines have won 7 straight games and they've already begun their "revenge season" as they look to get payback for every single Big Ten loss from last season. The Wolverines already beat Wisconsin and Michigan State by an average margin of 19.5 points per game. Now they get revenge against Penn State and then part four of the "revenge season" beckons them in the regular season finale at Ohio State. As a home favorite in Big Ten games, Michigan is already 3-0 ATS this season. Penn State is an ugly 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and Nittany Lions QB Trace McSorley was roughed up by the Hawkeyes last week and in the 2nd half was wearing a bulky knee brace. He is not going to have any fun this week either, whether 100% or not, as he goes up against the #1 defense in the nation. Look for a home blowout revenge win in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten match-up.
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