Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-26-21 | TCU v. Iowa State -14.5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
#140 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -14.5 over TCU, Friday 4:30 PM ET - Vegas is begging us to bet on TCU here and we won’t bite. The Horned Frogs are attracting a lot of public action, yet the line is not fluctuating down. TCU has had a disappointing season which cost longtime head coach Gary Patterson his job and has Jerry Kill as the interim coach. The Horned Frogs are coming off a 3-point win over 2-9 Kansas who has an average +/- on the season of minus -22.8PPG. TCU has been blown out on the road this season by 46 at Oklahoma State, by 19 at Kansas State and 21 at Oklahoma who are all on par with this Iowa State team. The Cyclones are a disappointing 6-5 this season, but they are much better than their record indicates. Even with 5 losses, ISU has a +10.3 average MOV which is incredible. Iowa State has a bad taste in their mouths after two straight 1-score losses on the road and will look for atonement at home. ISU is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +/- of +14.8PPG. Iowa State has a top 50-offense in several key statistical categories and should have success moving the ball against a TCU defense that ranks 113th in yards allowed per game at 454. On the other side of the football the Horned Frogs will have a tough time moving it against the top 10 defense of the Cyclones. This one has all the makings of a blowout. |
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11-26-21 | Boise State -2.5 v. San Diego State | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 46 m | Show | |
#119 ASA PLAY ON 8* Boise State -2.5 over San Diego State, Friday at 12 PM ET - Fishy line here with Boise (7-4) favored @ San Diego State (10-1) with the Aztecs playing for the MWC West title. We agree that Boise should be favored but to most this looks like any easy play on SDSU. Boise started the season a little slow but they’ve kicked it in gear and are playing as well as anyone in the conference. They’ve won 5 of last 6 with only loss vs Air Force. The Broncos have also shown they can get it done on the road with wins @ BYU, @ Utah State, @ Fresno State (blowout), and @ Colorado St. After struggling to run the ball early in the year they’ve really started to become balanced offensively running for 178, 187, 160, and 239 last 4 games. SDSU is very good defensively but their offense is not. They rank 114th overall and 125th in passing. When they’ve played step up games vs the other top teams in the MWC West the Aztecs lost by 10 at home vs Fresno and beat Nevada at home on a last second FG. In their last 4 games with San Diego State making their title push they beat Hawaii by 7 but were outgained in that game, lost by 10 at home vs Fresno, beat Nevada at the buzzer at home, and struggled with UNLV winning by 8 last week but getting outgained by 100+ yards. Boise gets the win and cover in this one. |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
#112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -2 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ve kept a close eye on Ole Miss for a number of weeks now. We used their game vs Vandy Under last week and cashed easily. The Rebels are running out of gas. They are now playing their 9th consecutive week and now on a short week on the road. This team is banged up at a number of positions including QB where Matt Corral has not been able to practice which has limited Lane Kiffin’s game planning to his own admission. They struggled a bit last week beating Vandy by 14 (Ole Miss was favored by 35) and that was a Commodore team that had lost their first 6 SEC games by an average of 26 points including a 45-6 loss to Mississippi State. Because this team is fatigued, their scoring has dropped drastically especially in the 2nd half where they have scored a grand total of 44 points over their last 6 games (7.3 PPG in 2nd half during that run). Speaking of the Bulldogs, they are peaking right now which can’t be said about the Rebels. They have won 6 of their last 7 games with their only setback during that run coming @ Alabama. Throw out that game and MSU has outgained their last 6 opponents by an average of 203 YPG. While Ole Miss QB Corral gets most of the press, how about the run by MSU QB Rogers? He is completing 80% of his passes with 20 TD’s over the Bulldogs last 5 games. They have outgained every SEC opponent they’ve faced with the exception of Bama. MSU’s offense is rolling right now as we discussed and their defense gives up a full 100 yards less per game than Mississippi. This is a rivalry revenger as MSU lost @ Ole Miss last season 31-24. We like MSU to win this one and we’ll lay the small number. |
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11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii +2.5 | Top | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 37 h 27 m | Show |
#426 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Hawaii +2.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 11PM ET - We have you covered for the late-night tilt on the Big Island in Hawaii when the Rams visit the Rainbow Warriors. This is a tough scheduling situation for Colorado State as they travel to Hawaii after suffering their fourth straight loss last week to Air Force. After prepping for the Triple Option attack, they now must adjust to playing the more traditional attack of Hawaii. CSU cannot make a Bowl game at this point, and they face one of the best teams in the Mountain West next week in Nevada. Hawaii on the other hand still has a shot at notching 6 wins on the season with a win here and the at Wyoming to become Bowl eligible. The Warriors are a much different team at home than they are on the road. Hawaii has been competitive at home against some of the league’s best teams losing by 7-points to San Diego State, 4 to San Jose State and beating Fresno State. Hawaii has some horrible defensive numbers overall, but at home they allow 5.2-Yards Per Play and 25.4PPG which are better than the national average. The Rams offense has struggled this season, especially on the road where they average just 4.9YPPL and 3.6-Yards Per Rush. In comparison, Hawaii averages 5.8YPPL at home and 5.0YPR. Colorado State should not be favored here and with nothing left to play for don’t be surprised if they view this trip to the islands as a vacation of sorts. Grab the points. |
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11-20-21 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss UNDER 65 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
#391/392 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 65 Points – Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - The Rebels have really upped their defensive performance as of late holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 19 points or less. Those 3 opponents were Texas A&M, Liberty, and LSU whose offenses are all far superior to Vandy. The Commodores rank 123rd in total offense and 128th in scoring offense averaging only 15 PPG. Take out their games vs the 2 defenses they’ve faced ranked lower than 100th (Mizzou & UConn) and Vanderbilt is averaging only 11.5 PPG. They will struggle offensively vs this Ole Miss defense that is playing much better than their season long stats indicate. Offensively the Rebels have slowed WAY down compared to early in the season. They have not topped 31 points since October 9th which has resulted in 5 straight Unders. Mississippi has a huge game on deck Thursday (Thanksgiving) with rival Mississippi State so they don’t want to do anything to jeopardize their performance in that game. Nothing special on offense from them here and if they get a comfortable lead as the point spread suggests they will we expect them to sit key players, including banged up QB Corral, in the 2nd half at some point. Of Vandy’s last 36 road games, 26 have gone Under the total and we expect another one here. |
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11-20-21 | UL-Lafayette v. Liberty UNDER 53.5 | 42-14 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 50 m | Show | |
#353/354 ASA PLAY ON 8* UNDER 53.5 Points - UL Lafayette @ Liberty, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The defenses for both teams are stingy and tough to score on. Liberty is 13th in the nation in scoring defense allowing just 18.7PPG. UL Lafayette is right behind them allowing 19.2PPG which ranks 17th. On average it takes teams 18.3 yards to score a point on ULL which is 13th best in the nation. Liberty is 28th in Yards Per Point defense at 16.1. The Flames defense is allowing 4.6-Yards Per Play on the season which ranks them 13th, Lafayette allows 5.0YPPL which is 32nd. You get the picture, this game is all about the defenses. Liberty is 101st in the country in pace of play, Lafayette is 66th. The Ragin Cajuns are on a 6-1 Under run, Liberty has stayed Under 6-3-1 on the season. |
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11-20-21 | Minnesota -7 v. Indiana | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show | |
#357 ASA PLAY ON 8* Minnesota -7 over Indiana, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Indiana is in a free fall losing 6 straight games and they really have nothing left to play for. You could tell that last week when they hosted Rutgers and lost 38-3! That’s the same Rutgers team that lost 52-3 at home vs Wisconsin a week earlier. The Rutgers offense had not topped 20 points in a game since mid September and nearly put up 40 on IU. The Hoosiers are really banged up a QB with starter Penix still out, his back up Tuttle was re-injured last week and didn’t return leaving them with their 3rd and 4th team signal callers. Their offense has been terrible ranking 121st nationally and if you subtract their one decent offensive performance vs a bad Maryland defense, the Hoosiers have scored 0, 3, 6, 7, 7, and 15 points in Big 10 play. Minnesota’s defense is very good (6th nationally) and should shut this team down. The Gophs completely out played Iowa on the road last week outgaining them 409 to 277 and held the Hawks to just 70 yards on the ground (Minny had 190 rushing). A few bad breaks cost them that game. They already have blowout road wins @ Colorado & @ Northwestern along with a win @ Purdue. We like Minnesota to bounce back and win this one by more than a TD. |
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11-20-21 | Virginia v. Pittsburgh OVER 66 | 38-48 | Win | 100 | 30 h 25 m | Show | |
#325/326 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 66 Points - Virginia @ Pittsburgh, Saturday at 3:30PM ET - The first aspect that stands out here is how fast both these teams play. Virginia ranks 36th in pace of play and has ranked as high as 28th. Pittsburgh is 17th in POP averaging 2.52 plays per minute. We also have two of the best offenses in college football squaring off as UVA ranks 5th in total yards per game (518YPG), while Pitt is 2nd at 533YPG. They are also both top 5 in passing yards per game and have big play capability with their passing attacks averaging 8.1-Yards Per Pass Attempt (Virginia 37th) and 8.8YPPA (Pittsburgh 19th). Last week the Cavs produced just 3-points against Notre Dame, but they were missing one of the best QB’s in college as Brennan Armstrong was out. Anderson is expected back for this game. Pittsburgh may have the best QB in the country with Kenny Pickett who is completing 67% of his passes for over 3,500 yards and 32 TD’s to 4 INT’s. Pitt just faced North Carolina and Vegas set a Total of 72 points. UNC and Virginia are very comparable offensively, but the Tar Heels are much better defensively. The Cavaliers at 98th in scoring defense, giving up 31PPG on the season and rank 120th in yards allowed. Pittsburgh has a weakness on defense and it’s against the pass as they allow 242PYPG which ranks 87th. If Armstrong is under center for Virginia, this sets up as a QB shootout. Bet Over. |
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11-20-21 | Illinois +13 v. Iowa | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show | |
#367 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois +13 over Iowa, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - We like this spot for the Illini. They are coming off a bye and have been very competitive on the road beating Penn State & Minnesota, while losing by 4 @ Purdue. Iowa is coming off a big home win last week vs Minnesota but they were outplayed in that game getting outgained by 132 yards. The Hawkeyes switched QB’s with Padilla making his first career start but it wasn’t overly impressive as he led the to just 277 total yards and the Hawkeyes averaged only 2.8 YPC. We see them struggling again this week vs an underrated Illinois defense. The Illini have not allowed more than 24 points in their last 7 games and they are allowing just 16 PPG in Big 10 Play (in regulation). Tough to lay nearly 2 TD’s when your offense is ranked 122nd nationally which Iowa’s is. Illinois HC Bielema won’t be on the sidelines here (Covid) but we expect the Illini to keep this one tight in a low scoring game as they have for most of the Big 10 season. They shouldn’t need to do all that much offensively to stay within this number. Take the points. |
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11-20-21 | Michigan State v. Ohio State OVER 68 | 7-56 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
#339/340 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 68 Points – Michigan State vs Ohio State, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for MSU’s defense. Sparty ranks DEAD LAST in the country in pass defense allowing 351 yards per game through the air and 111th in total defense. They are facing an OSU offense that is rolling right now and ranks #1 nationally in total offense and #6 in pass offense. This Buckeye offense just put up 59 points and 624 yards last week vs Purdue who came into the game as the 20th ranked defense in the nation. It could have been much worse as Ohio State had 52 points with 11 minutes still remaining in the 3rd quarter in that game. And that was vs a top 20 defense and now they face a bottom 20 defense on Saturday. While MSU’s defense stinks, they can score points. They are averaging 31 PPG in Big 10 play which is 2nd in the conference behind OSU who is averaging 48 PPG. Even vs the 2 top defenses they’ve faced this year (Michigan & Purdue) the Spartans scored 37 and 29 points respectively. This total seems high at 68 but let’s compare it to OSU’s total last week when the faced Purdue. That number was 65 and the Boiler defense is FAR superior to and MSU’s offense is ranked 40 spots higher than Purdue’s, yet this total is only 3 points higher. Weather looks great in Columbus with high temps in the upper 40’s with very little wind. Shootout here and we like the Over. |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan OVER 66 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 66 Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan, 8:30PM ET - If you enjoy MACaction and a lot of scoring you will love this contest tonight. Both teams have plenty to play for with identical 6-4 SU records so energy will be high for this “Michigan” rivalry. Let’s start with the Eastern defense which has been atrocious in the past few weeks. Last week, EMU allowed 8.1-yards per play to Ohio U who averages 6.1YPPL on the season and gave up 34-points to a Bobcats averaging 24PPG on the year. The Eagles allowed 8.6YPPL, 672 total yards to Toledo the week before and 49 points. While we are talking about defenses, Western Michigan has given up 31 or more points in 5 straight games, in 3 of those they allowed 40 plus. WMU has racked up some gaudy offensive numbers in recent weeks with 533, 445, 398 and 648 total yards of offense in their last four games. The Broncos will have success on the ground against an EMU defense that gives up 195-rushing yards per game and ranks 107th in that department. Overall the Eagles give up over 430YPG which is 103rd in the nation. WMU is 29th in yards per game at 443.8 with 195 of those yards coming via the 34th ranked rushing attack. Ohio is the highest scoring team in the MAC and 22nd highest scoring team in the nation at 33.9PPG. Last season when these two teams met they combined for over 1,000 total yards of offense and 95-total points. The bet here is OVER. |
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11-13-21 | South Carolina v. Missouri OVER 54.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
#187/188 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54.5 Points – South Carolina vs Missouri, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Mizzou has a very good offense and terrible defense. They have allowed at least 35 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The only team that did not reach 35 was Vanderbilt and Mizzou allowed a bad Commodore offense to 28 in that game. FCS team Southeast Missouri State put up 28 points on this defense which ranks 122nd and total defense and 116th in YPP allowed. Offensively, this team can score points. Their only 2 poor offensive performances this year were vs Georgia & Texas A&M who rank 2nd and 7th nationally in YPP allowed. If we subtract those 2 games, Mizzou is averaging 38 PPG on the season. Starting QB Bazelak missed last weekend’s game @ UGA but has been practicing this week so we expect him to go. The South Carolina offensive numbers for the season aren’t great. However, the Gamecocks seem to be peaking late in the year on that side of the ball right now putting up 400+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games including last Saturday beating Florida 40-17. On top of that, Missouri will be the worst defense they’ve faced this season. South Carolina has a middle of the pack type defense this year ranking 53rd nationally. However, in SEC play they have allowed 30 PPG with 3 teams getting to at least 40 points. The weather looks perfect for scoring in Columbia, MO on Saturday with light winds and no precipitation in the forecast. We like the OVER in this one. |
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11-13-21 | Minnesota +4.5 v. Iowa | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +4.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Iowa started the season on fire and moved all the way up to #2 in the polls which we knew at the time was nowhere near an accurate perception of this team. They won their first 6 games of the season but that slate was quite easy. They played only 2 teams through the first 6 that currently have a winning record. Those games were tight wins vs Iowa State, who outgained Iowa by 166 yards, and Penn State, who had their QB Clifford leave with an injury with PSU up by 14 points. In those first 6 games, the Hawkeyes were plus a ridiculous 15 turnovers which masked their offensive problems and simply wasn’t sustainable. In their most recent 3 games the Hawkeyes have come back to the level we thought they would be playing at losing by 17 vs Purdue, by 20 vs Wisconsin, and beating a bad NW team by just 5 points. Iowa was outgained in all 3 of those games by a combined 300 yards. That includes last week’s tight win @ NW vs a Wildcat team that had been outgained by a combined 720 yards in their 5 Big 10 games prior to facing Iowa. The Hawkeye offense ranks 121st in total offense and 124th in YPP offense this season. They have scored just 31 total points in their last 3 games and now face a very good Minnesota defense that ranks 7th nationally in total defense and allows just 4.9 YPP. The Gopher defense has allowed more than 16 points just ONCE in their last 7 games. On top of that, Iowa will be most likely be starting Alex Padilla at QB as Petras is injured. Padilla has never started a game in college and while he played decent in relief last week, they still only scored 17 points vs a NW defense that ranks 92nd nationally. Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing home loss vs Illinois. The Gophs had their chances in that 14-6 loss and outgained the Illini. In that loss, Minnesota was shut out on downs twice inside the Illinois 25 yard line, threw a pick in Illinois territory and missed a FG. Prior to last week Minnesota won 4 straight games and they have outgained 6 of their last 7 opponents. The Gophers faced NW on the road a week prior to Iowa doing the same and won the game 41-14 outgaining the Wildcats by 200 yards – the same team the Hawkeyes struggled with last week. These defenses are both very good but we feel Minnesota has a big edge at QB with veteran Morgan vs a first time starter. They also have a large edge on the ground rushing for an average of 208 YPG compared to Iowa’s 114 YPG on the ground. This is expected to a be a low scoring grinder (total set at 37) and getting points, especially +5.5, will be key. We feel Minnesota has a great shot to win this game and if not we don’t see Iowa with their terrible offense winning by more than a FG. Take the points. |
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11-13-21 | Georgia State +10.5 v. Coastal Carolina | 42-40 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
#123 ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia State +10.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 2 PM ET - The big news here centers around QB Grayson McCall of Coastal Carolina who is out with an injured shoulder. McCall had led the Chanticleers to the 6th best completion percentage in the nation and an offense that was averaging 43.3PPG before his injury. Last week without McCall, Coastal managed just 28-points against Georgia Southern which ranks 99th in the nation in points allowed per game and 113th in yards given up per game. Coastal Carolina’s rush defense is 33rd in the nation allowing 129.9YPG but that unit is slightly overrated considering they’ve faced 5 rush offenses that rank 74th or worse. The Chanticleers will struggle to stop a Georgia State offense that is 12th in the nation in rushing at 222.3YPG. Coastal will lean on their rushing attack here too with a unit that averages 225YPG on the ground, but the Georgia State rush D isn’t as bad as their numbers would indicate. The Panthers have faced five rushing offenses that rank 32nd or better including #1 ranked Army. The Panthers are coming off a close 4-point loss against UL Lafayette and have covered 4 in a row. We predict a one score game here. |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming +14 over Boise State, Friday at 9 PM ET - This line is an overreaction to Boise’s big win last Saturday @ Fresno. Our power ratings have this line around 10 so we’re getting value with Wyoming. In Boise’s 2 other conference home games they were favored by 3 vs Air Force (and lost) and favored by 4 over Nevada (and lost). They are taking on a Wyoming team that is coming in with confidence after playing their best game of the season last week beating Colorado St on the road 31-17 outgaining the Rams by 120 yards. Wyoming’s offense has struggled this year but they made the switch at QB to Levi Williams which gives them more of a running threat and he responded with 116 yards on the ground last week and their highest point total since mid September. And that was vs a CSU defense that ranks 10th nationally. The Cowboys are also an attractive big underdog because their defense is outstanding. The rank 18th nationally allowing just 325 YPG and they have allowed more than 27 points only once all season. Boise’s home field advantage isn’t what it used to be having lost 3 games here already this season and Wyoming has played them as tough as anyone. 4 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less and we expect a closer than expected game here. Take the points. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
#116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -6.5 over North Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Love this spot for Pitt. UNC is off a back and forth energy draining 58-55 home win over Wake Forest last Saturday. The Heels trailed for much of the game, down by 18 points late in the 3rd quarter, but made a furious rally in the 4th scoring 24 points in a 10 minute span. That was facing a Wake defense that ranks 105th in total defense and the game was at home. They’ll have a much tougher time with this Pitt defense ranked 37th nationally. The North Carolina defense was shredded last week for over 600 yards and they were on the field for a whopping 90 plays so fatigue will be a factor here. The problem is, they face at Pittsburgh offense that is better than the Wake offense they faced last week. The Panthers rank #1 nationally is scoring averaging 45 PPG and #2 in total offense averaging 543 YPG. If the Heels couldn’t slow down the Deacs last week we don’t see them fairing very well in this contest. UNC has lost all 3 of their road games this season by 7 @ Va Tech, by 23 @ Georgia Tech, and by 10 @ Notre Dame. Pitt is significantly better than the first 2 listed and we have them power rated about 2 points better than ND on a neutral field. These teams have played a similar strength of schedule yet Pitt numbers are much better. The Panthers are +1.8 YPP, +1.1 YPC, +2.4 yards per pass attempt, and +198 YPG. UNC’s numbers are +0.9 YPP, +0.6 YPC, +1.5 yards per pass attempt, and +68 YPG. This Pitt team isn’t talked about much and they are flying under the radar. They continue to be undervalued covering 5 of their last 6 games by 81 points (average cover by 13.5 points). On the other side, North Carolina was an overhyped team coming into the season and they have not lived up to expectations. They are just 2-4 ATS their last 6 with their only covers coming vs a terrible Duke team and by a half point last week at home vs Wake. Pitt gets this one by double digits. |
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11-10-21 | Toledo v. Bowling Green UNDER 50 | Top | 49-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50 Points – Toledo vs Bowling Green, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - Last week both of these teams went WAY over the total in their games which sets this week up nicely for the Under. Bowling Green beat Buffalo 56-44 going over the posted total by 48.5 points! Toledo came up short vs Eastern Michigan losing 52-49 which went over the posted total by 46.5 points! Both games were way outside the norm for these teams and they oddsmakers are simply very rarely that far off. Even with those results, this week’s total opened at 51.5 points and was immediately hammered by pro money pushing it down to 50. The Rockets last 4 totals were set at 54, 54, 53.5, and 51.5 so very similar to tonight’s number vs BG. However, those 4 games were vs offenses that rank 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th in the MAC. Bowling Green’s offense ranks dead last in the conference. Throw out their worst game of the season last year vs EMU, and this Toledo defense allowed 15 points vs WMU who averages 29 PPG, 23 points vs CMU who averages 30 PPG, and 20 points vs NIU who averages 32 PPG. Even after their terrible effort last week, the Rockets still rank 1st in the MAC in points allowed and 2nd in yardage allowed. BG will struggle on offense. The Falcons defense is the strength of their team as well. They rank 4th in the MAC in total defense and they are #1 in the league in pass defense. Toledo’s huge scoring effort last week was an outlier as they averaged just 24.7 PPG in MAC play leading into last week. Prior to last week Toledo had played in 6 straight games that went Under the total. BG is 5-4 to the Under this year. Both are slow paced teams (82nd and 88th nationally) so possessions might be limited. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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11-06-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue +3 | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
#394 ASA PLAY ON 8* Purdue +3 over Michigan State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Sparty is obviously in a tough spot on the road here coming off their biggest win in a number of years topping arch rival Michigan last week. It was a game MSU trailed by 16 late in the 3rd quarter, were outgained 552 to 395 and allowed a Michigan offense that was averaging 208 YPG passing in Big 10 play to throw for over 400 yards. Not surprising as Michigan State’s pass defense is terrible ranking 129th out of 130 FBS teams. That’s bad news this week vs a Purdue offense that loves to throw the ball and they are good at it ranking 14th nationally averaging 307 YPG through the air. MSU has had a number of tight games in which they were actually outplayed on the stat sheet. They’ve actually been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games. They struggled with Nebraska at home winning in OT and nearly were upset @ Indiana winning by just 5 points. While they are undefeated this team is not playing to that level having outgained their opponents by just +22 YPG this season. They face a solid Purdue team that comes in off a nice road win @ Nebraska. The Boilers also dominated Iowa a few weeks back 24-7 giving the Hawks their first loss of the season. They are very good defensively ranking 18th nationally and give up 110 fewer YPG than the Michigan State defense! The Spartans are going to get picked off very soon and we feel it happens right here. We like Purdue +3 at home. |
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11-06-21 | South Alabama v. Troy -3.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
#382 ASA PLAY ON 8* Troy -3.5 over South Alabama, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this situation for Troy. They should come in plenty rested for this match up. Their most recent game was a road loss @ Coastal Carolina on Thursday, October 28th and prior to that game they had a bye week. So they’ve had 10 days to prepare for this game and technically prior their game on Saturday, the Trojans have played 1 game in the last 19 days. South Alabama will be playing their 6th consecutive week as their bye was back in September. Troy has only played 1 home game since September 11th as 5 of their last 6 games have been on the road. They did win their only home game during that stretch and we expect them to be motivated for this rare game at home. We were impressed with their game @ Coastal Carolina, one of the top teams in the country currently ranked #21 in the AP poll. Troy took them to the wire on the road losing 35-28. After their turnover ridden 23-14 loss @ South Carolina in early October, a game Troy was actually favored by -2 points, the Trojans made a switch at QB as starter Powell was turning the ball over too much. Since switching to new QB Watson, they have won 2 of 3 games with their only loss coming to the aforementioned Coastal Carolina and he has completed almost 70% of his passes with 6 TD’s and 0 interceptions. South Alabama is definitely improved this season but they have been a very poor road team. Not only historically, but this year as well. They have played just 3 road games this year all vs poor competition. Those road game came vs UL Monroe (126th ranked in our power ratings out of 130 teams), Texas State (ranked 125th) and Bowling Green (ranked 114th). Despite the poor competition the Jaguars actually lost 2 of those games with their only road win coming @ Bowling Green by 3 points. Even in their win @ BG they were trailing by 7 points with 1:40 remaining in the game and scored 10 points in the final 1:39 to win. South Alabama was outgained on a yards per play basis in each of those 3 road games and by a combined 6.3 YPP to 4.9 YPP in those games. Taking a look at the Jaguars road record going back a few years they are just 3-17 since the start of the 2018 season and their road points per game margin is -15.7. Last year Troy was -4 @ USA and won 29-0. The previous year the Trojans were -17.5 at home and won by 24 points. Value with the short home favorite here. Take Troy. |
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11-06-21 | Navy +21 v. Notre Dame | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
#379 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Navy +21 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is the epitome of a potential rush doubling underdog with a Navy team that is 15th in the country in average rushing yards per game at 224RYPG, while Notre Dame averages just 130RYPG (94th). This is not the best scheduling situation for the Irish as they come off two big games against USC and North Carolina with Virginia on deck. It will be easy to look past this Navy team that has just 2 straight up wins on the season. But a closer look shows us the Midshipmen are on a 5-1 spread run and still undervalued by the oddsmakers here. Navy had an impressive showing two games ago when they took Cincinnati to the wire before losing by a TD as a 28.5-point underdog. That same Cincinnati team beat this Notre Dame team a few weeks ago in South Bend. This is the largest spread of the season for Notre Dame, and we don’t feel they can distance themselves here against a pesky Navy team that has been beaten by more than 21-points just once this season and that was the first game of the season. The Irish have one win over 21 points this year and that was a fluke as Wisconsin gifted them 3 INT’s, two of which were pick 6’s late in the game. |
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11-06-21 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State OVER 68 | Top | 48-14 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
#371/372 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 68 Points - App State vs Arkansas State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - We will start with pace of play, or the number of plays run per minute in our analysis here. Arkansas State is the 11th fastest paced team in college football at 2.63 plays per minute. Appalachian State is 58th at 2.32PPM. App State plays slightly slower, but they make up for it with the 46th best Yards Per Point average at 13.6 while ranking 29th in Yards Per Play at 6.3. The Mountaineers are top 20 in total yards per game, top 38 in both passing and rushing YPG and average 34.8PPG which is 27th in the nation. Appalachian State has put up over 500YPG in 5 of their last six games. Last weekend, App State put up 521 total yards and 59 points against a UL Monroe team that is better than this Arkansas State defense. The Wolves stop unit (we use that term loosely) is 130th in total yards allowed per game, 122nd in passing yards allowed, 129th in rushing D and 128th in points allowed at 42.4PPG. Arky State has given up more than 50 points 4 times this season. The Red Wolves can play offense though averaging over 408YPG, rank 10th in passing yards per game and score 27.5PPG on the season. App State is down defensively compared to past editions and rank slightly above average in most key categories. |
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11-06-21 | Illinois v. Minnesota UNDER 44 | 14-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
#345/346 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 44 Points – Illinois vs Minnesota, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - Minnesota loves to play slow and eat clock. They are the 2nd slowest paced team in the nation only ahead of Army. They average just 1.86 plays per minute. The Gophs also run the ball nearly as much as any team in the country. They average 47 carries per game which is the 5th most nationally. Running the ball keeps the clock moving which favors the Under. They are facing an Illini defense that has been solid. They have not allowed more than 24 points in any of their last 6 games and they’ve allowed an average of 16.8 PPG (in regulation) over those 6 contests. The problem for Illinois is on the offensive side of the ball. They have scored a grand total of 8 offensive TD’s in their 6 conference games and if we remove defensive scores and OT game, Illinois is averaging 12 PPG in Big 10 play. It won’t get any better here as Minnesota’s defense is VASTLY improved over last season. They are allowing just 5.0 YPP (30th nationally) and if you take out their season opener vs Ohio State, the Gopher defense is giving up just 15 PPG on the year. This one should be a good old Big 10 grinder and we like the Under. |
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10-30-21 | Ole Miss v. Auburn -2.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
#196 ASA PLAY ON 10* Auburn -2.5 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Big mismatch situationally. Auburn is coming off a bye week where they were able to rest up and get healthy. Ole Miss will be playing their 5th straight week of brutally tough games without a break. That includes @ Bama, home vs Arkansas, @ Tennessee, home vs LSU, and now @ Auburn. The Rebel offense, while still good, has slowed down immensely since hitting their SEC slate. They were averaging 52.6 PPG in the non-conference but have been held to 31 points or less in 3 of their 4 SEC games. Their defense is among the worst in the nation ranking 100th in total defense and 98th in rush defense. The latter will be a problem here vs an Auburn rushing attack that puts up 198 YPG. The Tigers have a very solid offensive line and should dominated an Rebel defensive front that isn’t all that good and will most likely be worn down after the gauntlet they’ve faced over the last month. Auburn’s QB Nix looked great in his last game after getting a little extra motivation getting benched vs Georgia the previous week. He threw for 290 yards and had an 80% completion rate vs a solid Arkansas team. Auburn’s only 2 losses this year are at home vs Georgia (the best team in the nation) and @ Penn State when the Nittany Lions were at full strength. Ole Miss has played only 2 road games this season and one was a blowout loss @ Alabama and the other they had to hold on to be an OK Tennessee team 31-26. Night game in Auburn should be rockin’ and we’ll lay the small number. |
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10-30-21 | Georgia v. Florida UNDER 51 | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
#197/198 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points - Georgia vs Florida, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The World’s largest Cocktail party takes place this weekend when Georgia and Florida meet for their annual showdown. According to our computer analytics you can bet and expect a lower scoring affair. The Bulldogs have one of the best defenses we’ve seen in quite a few years and put up some eye-popping statistics thus far. The Dawgs are allowing just 1-point scored for every 31.8 yards gained. To put that into perspective, in the last ten years no team has finished the season at 24.5YPPT or better. Georgia just faced three SEC teams that were top 50 in scoring per game, and they gave up a total of just 23 combined points in all three. Florida has solid overall offensive numbers, but they haven’t faced a defense like Georgia’s. In fact, the two closest defenses the Gators have faced this season are Alabama’s and Kentucky’s who allow a full 100-more yards more per game than Georgia does. Florida scored 29-points on Bama (who is down defensively by their standards) and put up 440 total yards. That equates to 1-point for every 15-yards gained which is roughly the national average. Against Kentucky, the Gators managed 382 yards and 13 points. Georgia allows just 209YPG on the season and holds opponents to just 3.4 Yards per Play (1st) so don’t expect Florida to move the ball successfully against this stop-unit. The Bulldogs are very pedestrian offensively and prefer to wear their opponents out with a power rushing attack that averages 193 yards per game. Florida has some solid defensive numbers overall (give up just 21.1PPG, and 16YPPT) and are especially good against the pass. Georgia plays at one of slowest paces in the country ranking 117th in pace of play. Florida isn’t much faster, ranking 73rd. These two teams played in a higher scoring game a year ago with Florida putting up 44 points and 571 total yards. That’s not happening this year and expect this game to revert to the low scoring contests like 2015-2019 which finished with 30, 34, 49, 53 and 41-points. The Under is now 7-3 the last ten meetings. |
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10-30-21 | Washington State v. Arizona State -16 | 34-21 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
#160 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arizona State -16 over Washington State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We love this spot situationally for ASU. The Devils are coming off a loss @ Utah in mid October and then a bye last week. Their goal this year has always been to win the Pac 12 South and their loss @ Utah put that goal in jeopardy. Well the Utes lost last week vs Oregon State so now ASU is right back at the top of the P12 South tied for first. Head coach Herm Edwards wrote a letter to his captains during the bye week letting them know their goals were back in play and it was time to get back down to business. This team was rejuvenated over their bye week and we expect a great game from them at home on Saturday. Washington State is in a tough spot. Almost half their coaching staff, including head coach Rolovich, was fired last week and they went all in emotionally and physically last week to win one for those that were terminated. They played host to BYU and lost by 2. Our word is the Cougs put everything they had into that game. Not only will they be emotionally spent, this team will be playing their 9th straight weekend without a break. Off last weekend’s tight home loss, without many of their leaders on the coaching staff, they must go on the road to play ASU. We don’t expect WSU to play well on Saturday under the circumstances. They don’t match up well with ASU no matter the circumstances. The Sun Devils will control the trenches here. They run the ball very well at 205 YPG and Wazzou is 86th nationally at stopping the run. The Cougers allowed BYU to gash them for 238 yards on the ground last week and now they face a team that is better than BYU at running the ball. This isn’t the explosive offense that WSU has had in the past as they rank 90th in scoring at 24 PPG. They’ll have problems keeping up here. This game is being played in the afternoon and the temperatures in Tempe will be around 90 degrees which is also a big negative for this tired WSU team that is not used to the heat. This has the makings of an easy win for ASU and we’ll lay the points. |
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10-30-21 | Cincinnati -26.5 v. Tulane | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
#199 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cincinnati -26.5 over Tulane, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Cincy had a bit of a scare last Saturday beating Navy 27-20 as a 28 point favorite. Now they play a Tulane team we have rated lower than Navy but the spread is lower due to last week’s tight game. We expect a blow out here. Cincy head coach Fickell admitted he did not have his team prepared mentally for going on the road with a bullseye on their back facing a team they should destroy. The Bearcats didn’t play well and you can bet he’ll have them ready here. The 2 previous weeks they topped Temple 52-3 and UCF 56-21. This team needs style points and they proved in those game they won’t let up scoring TD’s 4th quarter of both of those games with huge leads. We project 50+ in this game for the Bearcats. They are facing a terrible Tulane defense that ranks 128th in both total defense and scoring defense (out of 131 teams). The Green Wave have allowed an average of 46 PPG vs FBS competition this year and in those 6 games they’ve allowed more than 50 points 3 times. Offensively Tulane has topped 21 points just twice in their last 5 games and in those 2 games they scored 26 vs SMU (84th ranked defense) and lost by 29 and they scored 29 vs ECU (104th ranked defense) and lost by 23. On top of that, there is a good chance their starting QB Pratt won’t play here. That would mean 3rd string freshman Kai Horton (back up is injured), whose thrown 3 career passes, would get the start. Not ideal vs the 9th ranked defense in the nation no matter which QB starts. Since topping FCS Morgan State back in early September, Tulane has lost 5 straight games by margins of 40, 7, 23, 18, and 29 points. Now they face a motivated top 5 team trying to impress for a run at College Football’s Final 4. This gets ugly. |
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10-30-21 | Iowa +3.5 v. Wisconsin | 7-27 | Loss | -116 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
#117 ASA PLAY ON 8* Iowa +3.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We’ll keep this one simple. Two poor offenses vs two top 10 type defenses. We don’t expect either team to have much success running the ball with Wisconsin’s defense allowing 1.9 YPC and Iowa’s allowing 2.7 YPC. Neither QB is great but we do trust Iowa’s Petras more than Wisconsin’s Mertz. Petras had a poor game 2 weeks ago at home vs Purdue with 4 interceptions but prior to that he had thrown 9 TD’s and 2 picks on the season. He at least gives the Hawkeyes a threat in the passing game averaging 190 YPG through the air. Mertz is a turnover machine. He has only 2 TD’s to go along with 7 picks & 4 fumbles on the season. He’s completed a total of 31 passes in his last 4 games. The Badgers have not threatened opposing teams in the passing game and don’t expect it here. This one looks like a low scoring slugfest (total set at 36) which may come down to turnovers. If that’s the case, while hard to project, we’d have to favor Iowa in that category. The Hawkeyes have forced 20 takeaways on the season and their turnover margin is +1.57 per game which is 3rd nationally. Wisconsin ranks 122nd in that stat at -1.00 per game. Possessions will be huge here and if Iowa can gain an extra possession or 2 that could be the difference. Much is being made of Wisconsin winning @ Purdue while Iowa lost at home vs Purdue the previous week. Let’s remember Iowa was coming off a HUGE game at home vs Penn State (an Iowa win) while Purdue was off a bye going into Iowa City. It was a perfect spot for the Boilers and we were on them. Last week Wisconsin caught Purdue off their huge win @ Iowa and took advantage of it. Here we get Iowa off a loss and coming in off a bye which is a great spot situationally. Even if the Badgers win which will be tough, this could very well be a 13-10, 16-13, 17-14 or 20-17 type game. Iowa is the play here. |
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10-23-21 | Temple +2.5 v. South Florida | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 34 m | Show | |
#359 ASA PLAY ON 8* Temple +2.5 over South Florida, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET - This is a perfect spot to play on Temple who we have power rated as the better team in this game. The Owls had last week off after getting trounced @ Cincinnati. No alarm with that game as the Bearcats have shown they are going all in on attempting to destroy lesser competition to make a statement with the selection committee. Last week Cincy beat a solid UCF team by 35 points so they rolling over everyone they possibly can. While Temple was resting last week, USF lost a 1-point game as Tulsa scored a TD with 47 seconds remaining to grab the 36-35 win. The Bulls will be demoralized after that loss. However, while it may look like they played Tulsa tough, USF was destroyed in the stat sheet. The Bulls were outgained 535 to 268 and out rushed by 2.0 YPC. Tulsa had 3 turnovers in the game (1 for USF) and in the 2nd quarter the Bulls scored 3 TD’s on a 12 yard drive after a turnover, a 69 yard pick 6, and a 100 yard kickoff return. As you can see the score was quite misleading. The fact is USF has not beaten an FBS opponent since 2019 which means they are 0-17 SU their last 17 vs FBS opponents! If you throw out their game vs Florida A&M, who they only outgained by 24 yards, USF has been outgained in every game by a combined 1,105 yards in their other 5 contests or an average of -221 YPG. Temple, prior to getting smoked by Cincinnati, had been playing their best FB. They had outgained 4 straight opponents entering their game vs Cincy and they were coming off a win over Memphis. The Owls are getting outgained by an average of just 8 YPG but their YPP differential on the season is +0.2. They also played 2 games this season without their starting QB Mathis (Georgia transfer) but they have a 2-2 record with him in the line up with their only losses coming @ Rutgers & @ Cincinnati. The Owls defense has played very well for the most part allowing just 5.2 YPP which is nearly a full 2 YPP better than USF’s stop unit that allowed 7.0 YPP. Temple is the better overall team in the much better situation and they are getting points. Play Temple. |
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10-23-21 | UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 45-16 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech +6.5 vs UTSA, 7 PM ET - Meep, meep…here come the 7-0 #24 ranked UTSA Roadrunners! This is uncharted territory for UTSA who has never been ranked in the top 25 ever before and the impact in the line is evident. The Roadrunners have played the 96th easiest schedule to date with their best win coming against an average 4-3 Memphis team. Their other five FBS wins have come against teams with a combined 8-23 SU record. LA Tech comes into this huge conference showdown off an embarrassing 3-19 performance versus UTEP and will be primed for a game against a ranked opponent. In their game versus UTEP the Bulldogs had 3 crucial turnovers, 2 failed 4th down conversions and only scored once in five possessions in the red zone. Prior to that game, LA Tech had scored in 15 of 16 RZ trips. The Bulldogs have faced the much tougher schedule to date with 2-point loss to 6-0 SMU, 1-pt loss to SEC Mississippi State and a 7-point loss to 18th ranked NC State. The Bulldogs could very well have won all three of those games. UTSA is 10-2 ATS their last twelve road games BUT they were underdogs in all but one of those and they failed to cover as a road favorite. Since 2019 LA Tech has been a home dog just 4 times and they’ve covered three with an average loss margin of just -0.5PPG. |
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10-23-21 | Maryland +5 v. Minnesota | 16-34 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 14 m | Show | |
#345 ASA PLAY ON 8* Maryland +5 over Minnesota, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The Terps had a bye last week and they needed it. They were rolled the previous 2 weeks by Iowa & Ohio State, two top 5 teams at the time. Those blowout losses are giving us some value here on the Terps as they regrouped over the last 2 weeks and will play well here. Their loss vs Iowa was a game Maryland had 7 turnovers which big contributor to the final score. Two weeks ago they were simply overwhelmed @ OSU, a team that is playing as well as anyone in the country right now. Prior to those 2 losses, the Terps were 4-0. This Saturday they take a big step down in competition as they face Minnesota. The Gophers are off a home win over Nebraska but this offense has been struggling. Last week they looked good in the first half coming off their bye week, but the 2nd half was telling for the Minnesota offense as they fell back into struggle mode. They were held scoreless for much of the 2nd half with the defense getting a safety with just over 4:00 remaining and the offense getting a late TD with just over 2:00 left in the game. Their offense averaged less than 5 YPP in the 2nd half and had only one drive of more than 5 plays. Prior to last week the Gophs offense was outright poor getting held to 300 yards or less in 3 of their previous 4 games including games vs MAC opponents Miami OH and Bowling Green. They lost at home vs BG and nearly lost to Miami OH. The Gophers are down their top 2 RB’s who are out for the season. Maryland is banged up at WR but they are fairly deep at that position. These 2 have faced similar strength of schedule to date and Maryland is +128 YPG and +0.8 YPP – Minnesota is +25 YPG and +0.2 YPP. We feel Minnesota is definitely a step down from last year’s team and Maryland is better this season. When then met last year Maryland won by 1-point but outgained the Gophers by 225 yards. Too many points here so we grab Maryland. |
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10-23-21 | Northwestern v. Michigan UNDER 51 | 7-33 | Win | 100 | 29 h 48 m | Show | |
#347/348 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 51 Points – Northwestern vs Michigan, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We anticipate a defensive type game in this Big 10 clash. Michigan’s defense is one of the best in the nation and NW will really struggle on offense here. The only team that has topped 17 points on the Wolverines this year is Nebraska. They allowed 29 in that game (32-29 Michigan win) and they have now had 2 weeks off since so the defense will come into this game with a chip on their shoulder. Michigan is allowing just 309 YPG on 4.7 YPP. They face NW offense that is pedestrian at best. Their numbers are a bit misleading as 3 of the last 4 defenses they’ve faced were ranked 115th, 100th, and 89th in YPP allowed. The one decent defense they’ve faced in the last month (Nebraska ranked 34th) held them to 7 points on just 293 yards. Both these teams rely heavily on the run with Michigan averaging 45 carries per game and NW 40 carries per game. That eats clock. The Wolverine offense has shown the ability to score if pressed by the opposing offense to “keep up” so to speak (see Nebraska) but that isn’t the way we see this game playing out. Michigan is a 23 point favorite, we see them getting a lead and grinding out a win in the 2nd half. They don’t have to win big and pile on points, especially with a huge game vs Michigan State on deck. Northwestern’s defense has had their ups & downs but they have held half their opponents (3) to less than 10 points. NW HC Fitzgerald is a great defensive mind and should do enough to slow down the Wolverines. The last 4 games vs these 2 teams have totaled 37, 38, 19, and 45 points. We like the UNDER here. |
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10-22-21 | Colorado State v. Utah State OVER 58 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 58 Points - Colorado State at Utah State, Friday 10:30 PM ET - The first statistics that jumped out to us in this matchup is the pace of play numbers. These two teams rank in the top 15 in terms of plays run per minute and both average over 76 plays run per game. That obviously favors a higher scoring game with more possessions for each offense. Colorado State has some impressive defensive numbers but when you factor in the offenses faced, the numbers become less impressive. CSU is 9th in total yards allowed per game, 21st in passing yards given up and 16th in rushing yards allowed BUT they’ve faced six teams that rank 107th or worse in total offense and another team Toledo who ranks 74th. But on the flip side, the Rams offense is much better than their season numbers would indicate as they’ve faced some of the nation’s best defenses. San Jose State, Iowa, Toledo and San Diego State all rank 47th or better in total defense, three of those teams are top 25 in yards allowed per game. Utah State is more than capable offensively with a unit that averages over 484YPG (11th) is 15th in passing and 59th in rushing YPG. The Aggies numbers aren’t misleading either as they’ve faced some solid defenses in BYU, Boise State and Washington State who all rank 60th to 79th in total defense. Utah State is near the bottom of the nation defensively in yards per game allowed (108th), yards per play allowed (112th) and 85th in points allowed per game at 30.6PPG. We have lost value in this number from where it opened at, but the move hasn’t been enough according to the math. Bet Over. |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +5.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State +5.5 over Coastal Carolina, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - CC is undefeated this season but their schedule has been one of the easiest in the country. App State will be by far the best team they’ve faced this year. Coastal’s strength of schedule ranks 159th in the nation when including FCS teams schedules which says a lot since there are only 130 FBS teams. To date they have faced Citadel, Kansas, Buffalo, UMass, UL Monroe, and Arkansas State. Not one of those teams ranks inside the Sagarin top 100 and their combined record is 11-26. App State is 4-2 on the season but they’ve played 4 teams that are better than any opponent CC has faced (Miami FL, ECU, UL Lafayette, and Marshall). It’s really tough to even strongly consider their offensive stats when the FBS teams they’ve faced currently rank 130th, 129th, 118th, 116th, and 113th in total defense (out of 130). On the other side of the ball the Chanticleer defense has faced only one offense ranked higher than 71st. App State has 2 losses on the season, a 2-point setback at Miami FL where the Canes needed a late FG to get the win and their most recent game @ ULL. That was by far their worst performance of the year getting blown out by a very solid ULL team but committing 4 turnovers leading to 21 points for ULL. App State was also 0 of 11 on third downs. Just a terrible performance by a solid team and we expect them to bounce back and play very well at home. These 2 met last year in Coastal where App was a 3-point dog and lost by 11. They outgained CC by 45 yards in that game. Now they are getting more points at home this year vs a team that hasn’t played anybody. CC has played 2 road games this year and one of those vs Buffalo went to the wire and turned out as a 3-point win for Coastal. This game will be much tougher. CC hasn’t played in almost 2 weeks which isn’t ideal at this time of year. App State has been great at home where they have a 29-3 record their last 32 and all 3 of those losses were by a FG or less. This sets up for an upset on Wednesday night and we like App State + the points. |
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10-16-21 | Kentucky v. Georgia -21.5 | 13-30 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia -21.5 over Kentucky, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UGA has allowed 2 TD’s the entire season – just 5.5 PPG given up. Kentucky offense isn’t great throwing the ball, they rely on the run and no way they get that done here vs UGA defensive front (allows 2 YPC). UGA will be motivated here as UK is undefeated and ranked 11th – they shouldn’t be – Wildcats have already faced 2 of the 3 worst teams in the SEC (Mizzou & South Carolina) and won those games by 7 points & 6 points. Since season opener vs Clemson (10-3 final) the Dawgs offense has scored an average of 46 PPG and they have not scored less than 34. With a defense that has allowed 2 TD’s ALL YEAR, that means they are blowing out everyone. UGA is covering by an average of 15 PPG (#1 in the country) and their scoring margin is +34 PPG which is #1 nationally. This is just 2nd road game for UK and they struggled for a 16-10 win @ South Carolina in their other road tilt. Two weeks ago UGA played host to then undefeated and #8 ranked Arkansas who was looking great and scoring lots of points averaging 35 PPG entering the game – UGA won 37-0 and held Arkansas to 162 total yards. Arkansas offense is better than Kentucky’s and we see a similar result in this game. Just like Arky, the Wildcats might not score in this game. UGA rolls to another big win and cover. |
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10-16-21 | Fresno State -3.5 v. Wyoming | 17-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
#163 ASA PLAY ON 8* Fresno State -3.5 over Wyoming, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Fresno comes in off a bye week and a loss @ Hawaii the previous week. That 17-14 setback was very misleading with FSU outgaining Hawaii by 160 yards. Bulldog top notch QB Haener had perhaps the worst game of his career throwing 4 interceptions in that game all inside the Hawaii 15 yard line! Basically taking away 4 scoring chances and they still only lost by a FG. For the season he had completed 70% of his passes for over 2,200 yards and 18 TD’s with just 2 total picks in his other games. Just an aberration and a motivating one at that. Fresno’s other loss this season came @ Oregon by 7 in a game they outgained the Ducks. They also outgained UCLA by 174 yards in a win on the Bruins home field. This team is very good, coming off a bye and a tough loss which sets up nicely. Wyoming lost @ Air Force last week. The Cowboys are outgaining their opponents by only 13 YPG despite playing a very easy schedule that includes Montana State, Northern Illinois, UConn, and Ball State. It’s not as if the Cowboys are rolling over this suspect competition as they struggled to beat FCS Montana State by 3 points and UConn, the lowest ranked team in FBS, by 2 points. That’s the same UConn team that Fresno beat 45-0 this season. The Wyoming defense was preparing for the option attack of Air Force last week and now they have to completely switch gears facing a top notch passing attack this week. Fresno ranks 3rd nationally averaging 380 YPG through the air and the 4 FBS teams that the Cowboys have faced thus far rank 128, 124, 120, and 78 in passing offense. This will be a really tough adjustment for Wyoming. We like the better team, off a bye, off a loss, and they’ve played the much tougher slate (outplayed 2 Pac 12 teams as we mentioned above). Take Fresno. |
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10-16-21 | Purdue +12 v. Iowa | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show | |
#181 ASA PLAY ON 8* Purdue +12 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We see no way the Hawkeyes have their complete focus for this game. They are coming off a top 10 match up vs Penn State in what was a wild Saturday in Iowa City. We had some friends in the stands for that game and they said the energy from the crowd was off the charts. Iowa was down 17-3 in the game when PSU lost their QB Clifford for the rest of the game with an injury. From that point on, with 12:30 to go in the 2nd quarter, the Penn State offense gained a total of 50 yards. Back up QB Roberson, who had 8 career pass attempts entering the game, was overwhelmed by Iowa’s defense and completed just 7 passes. Even with that Iowa was barely able to squeak out a 23-20 win. Now after that game and with big time rival Wisconsin on deck, the Hawkeyes will be flat here. Purdue is solid this season and they are coming off a bye. They are coming off a 20-13 loss to Minnesota in a game they outgained the Gophers by 150 yards. The Boilers have outgained every opponent they’ve faced this year including their game @ Notre Dame. Their defense is solid ranking 16th nationally allowing just 300 YPG on 4.8 YPP. They should be able to stay in this game facing an Iowa offense that ranks 110th nationally putting up only 317 YPG. Iowa’s YPP differential is nothing to write home about at +0.6 YPP but they’ve been gifted with a ridiculous +18 TO margin in just 6 games! That includes +3 last week vs PSU with their back up QB and again they still only won by a FG. If Purdue can limit turnovers, they’ll have a shot to pull the upset here. Iowa’s offense isn’t good enough to pull away from a solid defense off a bye week. This has been a close series with the last 3 meetings being decided by a total of 12 points. Dangerous spot here for the Hawkeyes and we’ll take the underdog. |
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10-16-21 | Nebraska -3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
#143 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska -4 over Minnesota, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We were on the Huskers last week and wound up with a push as they lost by 3 to Michigan. Nebraska fumbled in their own territory late in that game setting up the Wolverines for the game winning kick. Nebraska has been tested as much as any team in the country over the past month. They have faced three top 10 teams and stood toe to toe with all of them. They lost at Oklahoma by a TD yet outgained the Sooners on a YPP basis. A week later they traveled to undefeated Michigan State and lost in OT despite outgaining the Spartans by 186 yards! Then last week their close loss to Michigan. Those 3 teams are a combined 18-0 and Nebraska was close to winning each of those games. The only team they’ve faced in the last month that wasn’t in the top 10 was Northwestern and they beat the Wildcats 56-7. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been struggling with lower tier opponents. Their last 4 games they almost lost at home to Miami OH, won @ Colorado, lost at home to Bowling Green, and then beat Purdue but were outgained by 150 yards. The first 3 teams listed rank 104, 105, and 144 in College Football Sagarin ratings. Bowling Green, who beat Minnesota in Minneapolis, just lost at home by 15 points to an Akron team that had a record of 1-26 their last 27 games! The Gophers rely heavily on their ground game and they are now down to their 3rd string RB after losing starter Ibrahim in the season opener and then back up Potts was lost for the season in their most recent game vs Purdue. Their offense has put up an average of just 15 PPG and 270 YPG over their last 2 games. Nebraska’s offense is humming against top notch competition averaging over 500 YPG in their last 6 games. We see no way Minnesota will be able to keep up here. They take a huge step up in competition and if they are struggling to beat middle of the pack MAC teams at home, they’re in trouble here. The Huskers are +1.8 YPP differential on the season while Minnesota is just +0.2 YPP despite the difference in their schedule strength. Nebraska is MUCH better than their record and we see a double digit win on Saturday. Lay the small number with the Huskers. |
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10-15-21 | Marshall v. North Texas UNDER 67 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #117/118 UNDER 67 Marshall vs North Texas, Friday 7 PM ET - Our computer simulators are predicting 60 or less points in this Conference USA showdown. If we do a quick comparison, we see North Texas recently played a similar team to Marshall in LA Tech a few weeks ago and Vegas had set a number of 64.5. That game stayed below the Total with just 41-points scored. Marshall also played a team that resembles UNT in Middle Tennessee State which finished with 62-Total points and Under 66. The Mean Green are coming off a very high scoring game against SEC Missouri but most of their yardage and points came in garbage time after they were down 41-14. That game also featured an uncharacteristic number of big plays with a 40-yard INT for a TD and 3 TD’s of 50+ yards. Marshall is coming off a low scoring affair against Old Dominion which was tied at 13 points apiece prior to overtime. The Herd rely on a passing attack that is 6th in the nation in passing yards per game at 358 but the Mean Green rank 50th in passing yards allowed per game. Not to mention, UNT has faced 4 offenses this year that rank 36th or better in passing which makes their defensive numbers even more impressive. We know North Texas will want to exploit the Herd’s rushing defense that allows over 212RYPG this year which ranks them 119th in the country. North Texas is averaging over 200RYPG on the season and should have success on the ground here. UNT on a 4-1 Under run while Marshall 4-0 Under their last four Conference USA games. Bet Under here. |
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10-09-21 | Michigan v. Nebraska UNDER 50 | Top | 32-29 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
#381/382 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50 Points – Michigan vs Nebraska, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We like the value in the number here when we consider the Wolverines just faced a Badgers team in Madison with a Total set of 43.5-points. That game did go Over the number but Wisconsin gifted UM with several turnovers which resulted in easy scores. Nebraska is coming off a game against a bad Northwestern defense and put up 56-points which has forced the oddsmaker to adjust this number up. This game shapes up to be very similar to the Michigan State/Nebraska game which finished with 43-total points in OT. We get two of the top 13 scoring defenses in the country squaring off as the Huskers rank 13th in points allowed per game at 15.5 while the Wolverines have given up just 12.8PPG Nebraska 17th in rushing attempts per game at 43.8, Michigan is 11th at 45.8. But both will have a hard time running the football against each other’s defense as the Wolverines allow just 3.3-Yards Per Rush (24th), while the Huskers give up just 3.5YPR (32nd). Michigan has some strong Over support overall, but when coming off a SU win they are 2-4 Under their last six. The Under is 7-0 in NU's past seven as a dog. |
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10-09-21 | San Jose State v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 14-32 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
#346 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -3 over San Jose State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Big time red flags over the last month with this SJSU team. Their travel schedule has been brutal and it’s started to show. This will be their 4th road game in their last 5 games. Since September 4th they have played @ USC, @ Hawaii (long travel), @ Western Michigan (long travel), at home last week vs a terrible NM State team and now @ CSU who is coming off a bye week. In their most recent 3 games the Spartans did beat Hawaii 17-13 but they only gained 291 yards on 3.7 YPP vs a Rainbow defense that allows 5.4 YPP on the season (ranked 67th). SJSU then went to Western Michigan and got rolled 23-3 while getting outgained by 228 yards. Last week they played host to New Mexico State, one of the worst teams in college football, and won 37-31 and only outgained the Aggies by 19 yards. That’s an “almost” home loss to a NM State that that is 1-6 this season (only win vs an FCS team) and has won only 5 of their last 26 games. Starting QB Starkel didn’t play in that game and might not here. CSU has shown some solid growth over the last month beating a solid Toledo team on the road 22-6 and they followed that up with a tight 24-14 loss @ #3 Iowa, a game they led at halftime. The Rams outgained Toledo and were out yarded by just 28 total yards vs the Hawkeyes. This team is rested and headed in the right direction. Their opponent SJSU is not. Lay the small number in this one. |
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10-09-21 | Michigan State v. Rutgers +5.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
#316 ASA PLAY ON 8* Rutgers +5.5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Is MSU vastly improved over last year’s team that finished with a 2-5 record? Sure. Are they the 11th best team in the country (currently ranked #11)? No chance. They are going to get knocked off here soon and this could be the weekend. MSU has beaten Northwestern (worst team in the Big 10 this year), Youngstown State, Miami FL (Canes had 4 turnovers in the game and currently have a 2-3 record), Nebraska in OT (Huskers outgained MSU by nearly 200 yards in the game), and Western KY. This is a very dangerous game for a 5-0 team that wasn’t very good last year laying nearly a TD on the road. Their offense is solid but the Spartan defense allows 428 YPG which makes it tough to lay lumber on the road in the Big 10 vs a Rutgers defense that is more than 100 yards per game better than MSU’s (Rutgers allows 320 YPG). Rutgers is coming off a blowout loss to Ohio State which was HC Schiano’s worst game rejoining the program as the head man. He’ll have his team ready this week. A week prior to their loss vs OSU, this team lost @ Michigan by 7 points and outplayed the Wolverines outgaining them by 77 yards and beating them in the trenches averaging 4.7 YPC while allowing just 2.9 YPC. A win there, which they should of and could have had, and this Rutgers team would be 4-1 with their only loss coming vs Ohio State. MSU hasn’t been on the road since September 18th and in their 2 road games thus far they were 3-point dogs @ Northwestern and 7-point dogs @ Miami. Now they are laying nearly a TD at Rutgers? This is a bad line and the Scarlet Knights will give MSU all they can handle here. Close game and we take the points. |
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10-09-21 | West Virginia +3 v. Baylor | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
#361 ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia +3 over Baylor, Saturday at 12 PM ET - WVU is the better team here and we like them to win this game outright. The Mountaineers have played the much tougher schedule having already faces Oklahoma, Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Texas Tech. Baylor played one of the easiest schedules through their first 3 games facing Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Since that they’ve faced Iowa State and Oklahoma State and Baylor has been dominated in the stat sheet in those 2 games getting outgained by over 300 yards. They were lucky to beat ISU by 2 points at home as they were outgained by almost 200 yards and benefited from a 98 yard kickoff return for TD. The Baylor offense caught ISU off guard in that game with some things they didn’t show in their first three games vs bad opponents. Once the Cyclones made their adjustments, Iowa State held the Bears to just 65 yards in the 2nd half. Thus in the last game and a half (since halftime of ISU game) the Baylor offense has generated just 345 total yards on 82 offensive plays (4.2 YPP). Now they face a WVU defense that is playing great allowing just 313 total yards and 346 total yards the last 2 games to potent offenses (Oklahoma & Texas Tech). Baylor will really struggle on offense in this game. The Baylor defense is in the same situation. Solid stats because of their weak schedule. However, in the last 2 games once they hit Big 12 play the Bears defense has allowed 440 YPG. WVU has covered the last 3 years in this series by a combined 51 points and we like them to win on Saturday. Take the points. |
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10-09-21 | West Virginia v. Baylor UNDER 44.5 | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
#361/362 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 44 Points – West Virginia vs Baylor, Saturday at 12 PM ET The first thing that stands out on this game is the opening number, the current number and the tickets/money being bet on the OVER yet the line has dipped by a point. First off, we have two teams here that are very deliberate in their style of play as the Neers rank 118th in plays run per game compared to Baylor who is slower yet ranking 125th. Baylor put up yards and points against Texas State (91st ypg all’d), FCS Texas Southern and Kansas (128th ypg all’d). Against the two quality defenses the Bears have faced they scored 31 vs. Iowa State but only gained 285 total yards. Last week vs. Oklahoma State, Baylor had 280yds but just 14 points. Baylor’s 6.1-Yards Per Play offense is misleading based on the defenses they have faced. West Virginia below average in terms of Yard Per Play offensively at 5.4 which ranks 70th in the nation. The Neers offense has not been explosive this season averaging just 1-point for every 16.2-yards gained which ranks 83rd in the nation. Each team’s defense will effectively nullify the others offensive strengths. Baylor is 12th in the country in rushing yards per game but West Virginia is 11th best stopping the run. West Virginia relies on their 42nd ranked passing offense but Baylor allows just 155-passing yards per game which is 12th in the nation. Last year West Virginia won 27-21 in OT but did you know that 20 of those points came in OT. Baylor had 256 total yards, WV 345. This game stays UNDER. |
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10-08-21 | Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 17 m | Show |
#307 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +29.5 over Cincinnati, Friday at 7 PM ET - This is a classic letdown spot for the Bearcats. They are coming off games vs Indiana & Notre Dame and they have UCF on deck. All off-season the talk was if this team can get by IU and the Irish they have a great shot at an undefeated season. Those 2 games were this teams “Super Bowls” so to speak and playing a home game as nearly a 30 point favorite after beating the Irish will be tough. The only other potential roadblock on their way to an undefeated season is probably UCF next week so focusing on Temple won’t be easy. The Owls are better than people might think. Their defense is very solid allowing just 313 YPG on 4.6 YPP. Last week they held a potent Memphis offense to just 5.8 YPP and the Tigers had just 385 total yards of offense entering their final offensive possession with 2:30 remaining in the game. Memphis scored with 30 seconds left to cut the Temple lead to 3 points but the Owls held on to win. The Temple offense struggled in mid September but much of that was because their starting QB Mathis (Georgia transfer) was out with an injury. He’s been back for their last 2 games and led the Owls to 72 points while passing for over 600 yards and 2 TD’s. Now we don’t expect him to put up those numbers vs Cincy but he’ll do enough to keep them within this huge number. This isn’t the same Temple team that was routed by Rutgers in the season opener. They are much better and that game was extremely misleading as well with the Owls turning the ball over 6 times in that game. Because of that, we are still getting line value with Temple who is now at full strength. These two AAC rivals last met in 2019 and Cincinnati was a 7.5 point home favorite and beat Temple 15-13. Now they are laying almost 30 points! Temple has covered 5 straight in this series and we think their defense is solid enough to not let the Bearcat offense go wild in this game. Their offense is also underrated and may not need to score many points to keep this within the number. Take the points with Temple. |
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10-02-21 | Kansas v. Iowa State OVER 56.5 | Top | 7-59 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
#135/136 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 56.5 Points - Kansas vs. Iowa State, 7 PM ET - Kansas certainly won’t be confused with the Kansas City Chiefs offense, but they’ll score enough points here to help push this game OVER the number. The Jayhawks are averaging just 21PPG on the season, but they do average 5.8 yards per play (52nd) which is respectable. Kansas coach Leopold has won at every level and is known for his offensive schemes which produced 7.3 yards per play and 43.4PPG last year at Buffalo. The Cyclones come into this game off their second loss of the season and will make a statement here. ISU is averaging 6.1YPPL (35th) and 31.3PPG (46th) and has produced over 479 total yards in each of their last two games. They will have no problems scoring against the KU defense that has allowed 52, 45 and 49 points to three offenses (Duke, Baylor and Coastal) who are not as good as the Cyclones. Iowa State’s defense is over-rated based on our metrics after facing some poor offenses in Northern Iowa, Iowa and UNLV. Last year when these same two teams squared off they produced 74 total points. This one gets to the mid-60’s. Bet OVER |
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10-02-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
#178 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -3.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Okie State has played the MUCH tougher schedule here and they are 4-0 on the season. 3 of their wins have come vs Tulsa (who played Ohio St to the wire on the road), @ Boise State, and last week at home vs KSU. We have been impressed with their progression the last few weeks. Starting QB Sanders missed the first game of the season, struggled a bit vs Tulsa and Boise, but hit his stride last week throwing for 344 yards at home in a 31-20 win over Kansas State. His top WR Martin returned after missing the last 2 games and had 9 catches for 100 yards. The OSU defense has been playing lights out allowing just 2.6 YPC and 4.5 YPP on the season. They have allowed just 123 yards rushing total in their last 2 games vs Boise & KSU (2 YPC). That will be a problem for a Baylor team that prefers to run the ball (41 rushing attempts per game). The Bears are undefeated, however their first 3 wins were vs Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Their win last week vs Iowa State at home was one of the more misleading finals of the season. ISU gained 480 yards on 6.6 YPP in the game. Baylor gained 282 total yards on 5.2 YPP. The Bears offense scored TD’s on their first 3 possessions of the game on 206 total yards. After that, they totaled 66 yards on 30 plays for barely 2 YPP. The Bears didn’t have to show much offensively in their first 3 games vs terrible opponents and they surprises the Cyclones with some new looks, plays, and wrinkles on offense. Once the ISU defense settled in Baylor did almost nothing. Their only points after the first 3 possessions came on a 98 yard kickoff return and a short FG after a long punt return. The favorite has covered 15 of the last 21 meetings and the home team has covered 13 of the last 19. We like OSU at home. |
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10-02-21 | Nevada +5 v. Boise State | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show | |
#151 ASA PLAY ON 8* Nevada +5 over Boise State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We love this spot for Nevada. They had last week off to get ready for this game and they are coming off a loss 2 weeks ago @ Kansas State. In that game Nevada was actually favored by 1.5 to 2 points on the road and they are now getting nearly a full TD @ Boise State, a team we have power rated lower than KSU. Boise State just isn’t the program they once were. They are 2-2 on the season and have been outgained in 3 of their 4 games this year. The only team they outgained was UTEP and that final score was very misleading as the Miners turned the ball over SIX times in that game. For the season the Broncos are -50 YPG and -0.4 YPP. Last week they beat Utah State 27-3 but that was another misleading final score as the Aggies outgained Boise on both a YPG and YPP basis but had 3 turnovers, missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs twice. Nevada’s loss 2 weeks ago @ Kansas State was a bit deceiving as well. The yardage was near even in the game and KSU scored 2 TD’s in the final 6 minutes of the game. This Nevada team did win @ Cal this season as an underdog. They are +95 YPG on the season and +1.4 YPP and that’s vs a schedule that has included 2 Power 5 teams already. The Wolfpack have one of the top QB’s in the nation, Carson Strong, who has completed 68% of his passes for nearly 1,000 yards in 3 games. He’s thrown for over 6,000 yards and 45 TD’s in his career. The best QB Boise has played so far this season is UCF’s Gabriel and hit lit them up for 318 yards passing, 4 TD’s while leading his team to nearly 600 total yards. Strong will have a big day on Saturday. Nevada has covered 7 straight games as an underdog and we feel the better team is getting points in the much better situation. Take Nevada. |
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10-02-21 | Bowling Green v. Kent State -16 | 20-27 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
#170 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kent -16 over Bowling Green, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Despite facing some quality defenses (Iowa, Texas A&M and Maryland) the Kent State offense has some solid overall numbers, ranking 41st in total yards per game gained (439YPG) and 14th in rushing yards per game (237RYPG). The three defenses of Iowa, A&M and Maryland all rank 25th or better in total defense and now the Golden Flashes face a Bowling Green defense that is 99th in stopping the run. The Falcons allow an average of 207RYPG at a 4.3 per rush clip. Bowling Green on the other hand has played the 83rd overall easiest schedule yet rank 130th in rushing yards per game and 124th in total offense. Last season when these MAC foes met it was in Bowling Green and Kent State was favored by 14-points, won 62-24 and outgained the Falcons by over +300 total yards. Bowling Green is coming off a huge underdog win last week in Minnesota as a +30-point underdog while Kent State returns home off a loss at Maryland. This conference opener for both teams is going to be all chalk and a big win for the Golden Flashes. The favorite is 4-1 the last five meetings. |
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10-01-21 | Houston v. Tulsa -4.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 54 m | Show |
#106 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulsa -4.5 over Houston, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - There is a reason the team that sits with a 1-3 record is favored over the team that has a 3-1 record. Tulsa is at home for this one and they’ve played a very tough schedule to date including games @ Ohio State and @ Oklahoma State. In their 28-23 loss @ Oklahoma State they outgained the Cowboys in that game plus held their own in the trenches limiting them to just 3.3 YPC on the ground. OSU had a 99 yard kickoff return for TD in that game which was the difference. When the Golden Hurricanes traveled to Ohio State they more than held their own vs the Buckeyes rolling up 501 total yards to 508 for the Bucks. That game was tight throughout despite the final margin. Tulsa trailed by just a TD @ Ohio State with under 4:00 minutes remaining in the game. Last Saturday Tulsa was back at home and topped Arkansas State 41-34. It could have been much worse as they held a 17 point lead in the 3rd quarter but ASU scored 13 of the games final 16 points including a 98 yard kickoff return. The stats in the game were extremely lopsided with Tulsa gaining 663 yards to 359 for Arkansas State. Houston steps in with a 3-1 record but they’ve played an easy schedule compared to Tulsa. The Cougs have faced Grambling, Rice, Navy, and Texas Tech thus far. Take out the Grambling game and the 2 wins for Houston vs Rice & Navy were not all that impressive. Those 2 teams are 0-6 SU combined vs FBS teams this season and 5 of those losses were blowouts. The only one that was close was Houston’s 28-20 win over Navy last week. The one decent team the Cougars played, Texas Tech, rolled them by 17 points outgaining Houston by 125 yards. Despite the big difference in opposition this season, Tulsa has gained an average of 6.9 YPP and allowed 5.6 YPP for a differential of +1.3 YPP. Houston’s YPP differential is +0.6 YPP despite their easy slate thus far. These 2 most recently met here in 2019 and Houston topped Tulsa as a 7-point dog despite getting outgained by 150 yards. Some revenge is in order on Friday night. We like this Tulsa team and feel they are undervalued right now. Lay the points here. |
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09-25-21 | Troy v. UL-Monroe UNDER 50.5 | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 35 h 42 m | Show | |
#403/404 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 50.5 Points – UL Monroe vs Troy, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - We don’t see how this one gets to 50 points. Neither offense is good and Monroe’s offense is one of the worst in the nation. After 2 games vs Kentucky & Jackson State, ULM is averaging just 169 TOTAL yards per game and they’ve scored a grand total of 22 points in those 2 games. The Warhawks scored a TD @ Kentucky on their opening drive which was only 42 yards after a Kentucky turnover. They have not scored a TD since! That’s 26 straight offensive possession without a TD. Now they face one of the top defenses in the Sun Belt and we don’t see them coming alive on offense here. Troy has allowed just 33 points in 3 games this season and just 3 offensive TD’s in those games. They rank 5th in the nation allowing only 228 total yards per game on 3.8 YPP. That includes a game vs a solid Liberty offense in which they held the Flames to 21 points and barely 300 total yards. Troy should completely shut down this bad ULM offense. Can Troy score enough by themselves to get this one close to 50 total points? It doesn’t look like it. They have not been great offensively averaging 333 YPG which ranks them outside the top 100 in total offense. And that includes a game vs FCS Southern. Take that away and Troy is averaging 17 PPG on just 267 YPG. These 2 rank 87th and 104th in offensive plays per game so we don’t anticipate a fast moving game. Troy is a big favorite here (-24) and we look for them to get a lead, lean on their defense, and eat the clock. This one stays UNDER 50 points. |
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09-25-21 | Nebraska +5 v. Michigan State | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 34 h 37 m | Show | |
#399 ASA PLAY ON 8* Nebraska +5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Prior to the season the Huskers would have been a slight favorite in this game and now just a few weeks later we’re getting nearly a TD with Nebraska. We love the value here. On top of that, Nebraska is playing really well right now. Let’s throw out their season opening loss @ Illinois (we were on the Illini) and since they are 2-1 with their only loss coming by 7-points last week @ #3 ranked Oklahoma. The Huskers actually outgained the Sooners on a YPP basis (6.0 to 5.9) and only punted twice the entire game. They were every bit the equal of Oklahoma last week and could have easily won that game. The previous week Nebraska rolled over a solid Buffalo program 28-3 and had a over 500 yards of total offense. That win looks much better now after Buffalo took #16 Coastal Carolina to the wire last week losing by a FG. The defense has looked light years better than last year allowing just 4 TD’s in their last 3 games. QB Martinez looked shaky in the season opening loss @ Illinois but has since played the best football of his career completing 49 of his 67 pass attempts (73%) with only one turnover in the last 3 games and that was a highlight reel interception by OU last week. He’s also run for 179 yards in those 3 games. MSU is improved no doubt but we have to ask how impressive are their wins? They beat NW to open the season and the Cats are flat out bad this year (lost @ Duke last week). MSU then beat Youngstown State. Throw that out. Last week they led Miami 17-14 in the 4th quarter before scoring a few late TD’s to win 38-17. The game wasn’t that lopsided as the yardage was about even but the Canes had 4 turnovers (0 for MSU) and 2 of those giveaways led to a 13 yard TD drive and a 23 yard TD drive for Sparty. Miami FL could easily be 0-3 on the season as their lone win was vs App State by 2 points in a game they could have lost. Michigan State has historically been a terrible home favorite with just a 1-12 ATS record their last 13 in that spot. The Spartans were just 3-point dogs a few weeks ago vs Northwestern and now they are laying 5 points vs a much better Nebraska team? We like the Huskers to have a great shot at pulling the upset here. |
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09-25-21 | Kansas State +6 v. Oklahoma State | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 34 m | Show | |
#369 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State +6 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We’ve been thoroughly impressed with KSU this season. We love their head coach Chris Klieman who is now in his 3rd year here after leading FCS power North Dakota State to a 69-6 record in his 5 years as head man at that program. This team is flying under the radar despite big wins over two very good teams Stanford and Nevada. Those wins came by margins of 17 points and 21 points respectively. Stanford has since beaten USC handily and Nevada has a road win @ California this season. Starting QB Thompson went down for KSU a few weeks ago but his replacement Will Howard has lots of experience and has played very well including in last week’s win vs Nevada where he completed 70% of his passes and had 56 yards rushing. We like KSU in the trenches here as they rank 19th nationally in rushing (226 YPG) and 5th nationally in stopping the run (55 YPG). OSU is off a big road win at Boise 21-20 blocking a Bronco FG attempt with just 2:00 minutes to go. The Cowboys haven’t been dominating by any stretch despite their 3-0 record. All of their games have been decided by a TD or less including wins vs Missouri State & Tulsa. They are really banged up at WR with 4 potentially out which has made it tough on their passing attack (just 190 YPG). KSU is 19-6 ATS in this series and a perfect 7-0 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points. This is a big revenger for Kansas State as well after losing 20-18 at home to OSU last season. We expect another tight game and taking nearly a TD with KSU is the way to go here. |
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09-25-21 | Rutgers v. Michigan UNDER 50.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
#401/402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Rutgers vs Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This game is not going to play out like last years when these two teams combined for 90 points. Looking closer at that game, these two teams had 55 total points with five minutes to play before two late TD’s forced the game into overtime. They also had a 95-yards punt return for a TD and three touchdowns on big plays of 46 or more yards. We are betting this game plays out much differently and don’t see a high scoring affair. These two teams have been outstanding defensively this season with the Wolverines allowing 14, 10 and 10 points in three games this season. UM is 9th in points allowed per game, 26th in total yards allowed at 287YPG and 22nd in yards per play allowed at 4.4YPPL. Offensively the Wolverines rely on a rushing attack that is pounding out 350 rushing yards per game (1st) while scoring 47PPG. Those numbers are not sustainable and also come against a Western Michigan team that is 120th in yards allowed per game, Washington who is 42nd in YPG/allowed and Northern Illinois who ranks 103rd. So while UM is really good offensively their numbers are somewhat misleading. Rutgers has a defense allowing 261YPG which ranks 16th while allowing only 145 rushing yards per game which ranks 15th. The Knights give up just 11.3 points per game which is 8th best in the nation. Offensively the Knights have struggled though ranking 99th in yards gained per game while averaging just 3.6 yards per play (121st). Michigan is one of the slowest paced teams in college football and will dictate the tempo and pace here with their ground attack. Michigan has a much bigger opponent on deck in Wisconsin so look for them to call off the dogs late in this one. BET UNDER! |
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09-25-21 | UTSA +3.5 v. Memphis | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
#387 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for the Tigers. They are coming off a HUGE home win over SEC Mississippi State and the week prior to that they beat rival Arkansas State 55-50. Last week’s 31-29 win over MSU was very deceiving. We were on Memphis so we picked up a win but if you would have shown us the final stats before the game was played, we would not have been on the Tigers. Memphis was -14 first downs and -222 yards in that win over Mississippi State. They had a 94-yard punt return and 49-yard fumble return both for TD’s. If they take UTSA lightly after last week’s big win, they will lose here. They may lose even if they play well. UTSA is a very solid, veteran team. They come into this game with a 3-0 record including a win @ Illinois in their other road game this season. Say what you will about the Illini, but in their other 2 home games they beat Nebraska and nearly beat Maryland so that was a very good road win for UTSA who had 497 total yards of offense in that game. Last week they Road Runners topped Middle Tennessee State by 14 points but it should have been much worse as they won the yardage battle by +253. Their senior QB Harris is one of the better “unknown” signal callers in the country, just ask Illinois. We have an edge at that position as the Memphis QB is a freshman that’s played in 3 games in his career. Dating back to last season UTSA has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming in their bowl game 31-24 vs a very good Louisiana team that finished last year 10-1. We’re getting the better team, getting points, in a better situation. Take Texas San Antonio. |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | Top | 37-17 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia -4 over Wake Forest, Friday at 7 PM ET - We love this spot at home for UVA. They are off an embarrassing 59-39 loss @ North Carolina last Saturday. It was the Cavs first loss of the year. They are taking on a Wake team that is 3-0 but they’ve played all home games and faced a very easy schedule thus far. The Deacs topped an FCS team and a bad FBS team (Old Dominion) to start the season and then thumped a reeling Florida State team last week. While FSU isn’t very good – they lost at home the previous week to Jacksonville State – it was still a big win for WF vs a name program. The Wake defense has put up great numbers this year holding their 3 opponents to a combined 40 points but the offenses they’ve faced have been nothing close to what they’ll see on Saturday. Minus their FCS opponent, they have faced Old Dominion (122nd in total offense) and FSU (68th in total offense). Worse yet, those 2 teams aren’t adept at moving the ball through the air (ODU 118th in passing offense / FSU 84th in passing offense) and now they face a UVA team that leads the nation averaging 488 YPG through the air. The Cavs also rank 3rd in total offense and 11th in YPP offense. Wake’s defense takes a huge step up in competition on Saturday. UVA just saw one of the top offenses in the nation (UNC) last week and didn’t fare well but you can bet they’ll make adjustments this week and this will be a step down in competition for the Cavaliers. This is a game Virginia has been waiting for after losing 40-23 at Wake last year (Wake as a 2-point favorite). The yardage in the game was very close but the Cavs had 3 turnovers (0 for Wake), missed a FG, and were shut out on downs inside the WF 10-yard line. They had their chances to say the least. They haven’t been able to host WF since 2012 so it’s been almost a decade since they’ve had a shot at the Deacs here at home. Virginia has won 18 of their last 20 home games and only 3 of those 18 wins have come by less than a TD. Lay it. |
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09-18-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis +3.5 | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 30 m | Show | |
ASA play 8* on: #162 Memphis +3.5 over Mississippi State, 4PM ET - The play here is on the home team Tigers in what we expect to be a mild upset and outright win for Memphis. We’ll gladly grab the points! Memphis has one of the best offenses in college football averaging 680 yards per game which ranks them 2nd in the nation. That is obviously not a fluke either as they averaged over 400YPG a season ago which was 28th best. The Tigers high scoring offense is averaging 55PPG this season and has averaged over 36PPG going back three full seasons. Last week the Tigers jumped out to a big lead against Arkansas State before the Red Wolves scored three Touchdowns in the 4th quarter to make it respectable. In other words, we don’t feel the Tigers defense is as bad as the 50-points they allowed last week to Arkansas State. The Wolves offense averaged over 31PPG a year ago and were 14th in total yards per game. Mississippi State is coming off a big win over NC State and have a huge game looming on deck versus LSU. While the Bulldogs are looking ahead to that game, the Tigers are focused on a huge home game versus an SEC opponent. Last week the Bulldogs returned the opening kick for a TD but were unimpressive after that, getting outgained by NC State but still winning. Since 2018 Memphis is 20-1 SU at home with an average margin of victory of 18.5PPG. They’ve also been a home dog just three times in that span and are 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS in those games. Mississippi State finds themselves in unfamiliar territory here as a road favorite with this being the 6th time since 2018 in that role. Miss State is just 1-7 ATS their last 8 on the road against a team with a winning home record. Grab the points with Memphis here. |
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09-18-21 | Florida State +5 v. Wake Forest | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 4 m | Show | |
ASA play 8* on: #145 Florida State +5 over Wake Forest, 3:30PM ET - Florida State came into the season with high hopes, but an 0-2 SU start has dampened the Seminoles spirits. They are facing a “must win” situation here if they want to salvage any semblance of a successful season. The Noles played a top ten team in Notre Dame to the wire in the opener but came up short. Then last week they suffered a big upset loss (favored by 28) to Neon Deon Sanders and Jacksonville State. FSU lost that game on a 59-yard Hail Mary pass to end the game. Now the Noles must get back up to face an ACC foe in Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are off to a 2-0 start, but they’ve faced Norfolk State and Old Dominion. Old Dominion didn’t play last season and was 1-11 SU the year before. Despite playing two bad programs the Deacons rank 75th in total yards per game, 74th in passing and 70th in rushing offensively. Wake Forest has decent defensive numbers, but they are not what they should be considering the competition they’ve faced. FSU has a decisive rushing advantage here and can win this game in the trenches. Had this game been played the first week of the season the Noles may have been favored in this game and now they are catching over a field goal. In fact, going back to 2010 the Deacons have never been favored in this series. Going back to 2018 Florida State is 11-8 SU when coming off a loss and we like them here plus the points. |
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09-18-21 | Kent State v. Iowa UNDER 56.5 | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
#147/148 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Under 56.5 Points – Kent State vs Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Our number has this total set at 51 so definitely value on the Under. Iowa defense is outstanding. They’ve allowed 23 points total this season and that was vs Indiana & Iowa State, two very solid Power 5 offensive teams. Last week the Hawkeyes held what we consider one of the better offensive teams in college football, Iowa State, to just 17 points in 4.7 YPP. Dating back to last year over their last 8 games, the Hawkeye defense has allowed just 13 PPG on 4.4 YPP. In their last 5 games vs the MAC conference, the Iowa defense has allowed an average of 10 PPG. Kent is off a high scoring win vs FCS VMI, however their lone game vs a Power 5 team this year they scored 10 points vs Texas A&M. Kent also loves to run the ball which eats clock. They ran it 45 times vs A&M and last year they finished 3rd nationally with 50 rush attempts per game. Here’s the problem. It’s really tough to run on Iowa. They have allowed 77 and 87 yards rushing the first two games and those, as we mentioned, we vs solid Power 5 offensive teams. Kent will have a tough time running the ball here. Iowa is a slow paced team. They prefer taking their time in the huddle which they will continue here. Their offense has been fairly pedestrian this year. They’ve put up only 476 total yards in 2 games. They have scored 61 total points but 3 of their TD’s have come from the defense and they’ve only had 4 TD’s this year from their offense. Since the start of last season Iowa has had a grand total of ONE game where they totaled more than 56 points. We anticipate Iowa getting ahead here and then slowing way down offensively to put it away in the 2nd half. That means Kent won’t have many chances and scoring vs this defense will be very tough when the do. Even if Iowa scores 40, which we don’t think they will, Kent would need to get to 17 to push this over the total. We look for a 35-14 type score keeping this UNDER the total. |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati -3.5 v. Indiana | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -3.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - After finishing with a solid 6-2 record but we felt they were due for a regression this year. The benefitted from a +8 turnover margin last year, they were outgained on the year despite their winning record, beat only 1 team that ended last year with a winning record, and their QB isn’t anywhere near 100%. Michael Penix is just 8 months removed from a 2nd ACL tear on the same knee. Our word from IU is that he is probably only 80% at best. You can see it in his play. His legs were a big part of his success at QB and he isn’t comfortable running yet this season. He’s very uncomfortable in the pocket with pressure, which is understandable, but that does not lead to success throwing the ball. He’s barely averaging 4.0 yards per pass attempt which means IU has become a dink and dunk offense. Their running game has been poor averaging 2.5 YPC vs Iowa and 3.6 YPC vs a bad Idaho team. That means in order to beat Cincy, most likely Penix will need a huge game and we just don’t see it. The Bearcats defensive front is every bit as good as Iowa’s who put constant pressure on Penix and held the Hoosiers to just 6 points. They bounced back after that loss and beat Idaho but not nearly as impressive as the score indicated. IU averaged just 4.8 YPP vs the Vandals and had 2 special teams TD’s in the game. Cincy was one of the best teams in the nation last year going 9-1 with their only loss coming by 3-points vs Georgia in the Peach Bowl. They return many key players from a great defense that allowed 16 PPG and just 4.6 YPP. They also bring back one of the better QB’s in the country as Desmond Ridder threw for 2,300 yards, 19 TD’s and rushed for almost 800 more. The Bearcats have won their first two games by a combined score of 91-21. That includes a 49-14 win over Miami Oh in week one and the Redhawks turned around and nearly won at Minnesota the following week showing how impressive that Cincinnati win was. We’re laying points on the road here but Cincinnati is the much better overall team at this time. Once Penix gets back to 100%, the Hoosiers will be much better but he’s nowhere near that right now. Lay it. |
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09-17-21 | Maryland v. Illinois OVER 60.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -114 | 55 h 48 m | Show |
#107/108 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 60.5 Points – Maryland vs Illinois, Friday at 9 PM ET - This total opened at just 58.5 which was way too low in our opinion and it has since jumped up to 60.5. Our power rated total for this one is set at 64 to still value on the OVER in our opinion. The Maryland offense has been great thus far putting up 92 points in 2 games to go along with almost 1,100 yards on 6.6 YPP. One of those games was vs a very good West Virginia defense that ranked 5th in college football in total defense last season. The Terps lit them up for 30 points on 496 total yards. They actually should have scored more than 30 points as Maryland missed a FG, was shut out on downs in WVU territory, and ended the game on the WVU 13-yard line running out the clock. The Terps are averaging 82 plays per game as their fast paced offense is clicking right now to say the least. The Illini pass defense has been terrible so this is a bad match up. Maryland QB Tagovailoa has already thrown for over 600 yards, completed 76% of his passes, and 6 TD’s. Not to mention he’s a running threat as well. The Illini pass defense has allowed their last 2 opponents starting QB’s (UTSA & UVA) complete 46 of their 68 pass attempts (68%) for 685 yards and 6 TD’s. Getting no pressure up front hasn’t helped as Illinois has 1 sack in their last 2 games combined. They’ve allowed 37 & 42 points in those 2 games. Offensively the Illini get a big boost here with starting QB Peters back under center after missing most of the Nebraska game and each of the last 2 games. He gives them a much better passing attack and makes this team tougher to defend. The Illini scored 30 points in each of their first 2 games but just 14 last week @ UVA. They had many more opportunities to put points on the board throwing an interception in Virginia territory and getting shut out on downs twice on the Cavs side of the field. Illinois has been using a fast paced offense as well averaging 75 plays per game so both teams prefer up tempo. Maryland shut out an FCS team last week but in their lone FBS game they gave up 24 points to West Virginia and the game had 41 points at halftime (21-20 WVU lead). With perfect weather (temps in the 70’s and light winds at game time) and a lot of offensive snaps expected, we think this one is high scoring. The projected score based on the spread is Maryland 34 – Illinois 26. We like both teams to eclipse their projected point total and this one goes OVER. |
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09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
#377 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +7 over Michigan, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a pure value play on Washington. This line prior to last week’s games was Michigan -1 or -1.5. Now because Michigan beat Western Michigan handily and Washington was upset by an FCS team, this number moved through -3, -4, and -6 (three key numbers) and onto another key number -7. That’s simply too much of an overreaction after one week. Washington look poor last week no way around that. They turned the ball over 3 times and didn’t create a single turnover. The Huskies tallied just 291 total yards in their 13-7 loss vs Montana. UW had 11 more first downs, won the overall yardage & time of possession battle and the defense held the Grizzlies to 3.4 yards per play. They were flat and turnovers (-3) decided the game. We expect Washington to rally big time this week as they are now backed into a corner so to speak off that loss. The defense has a chance to be elite. Michigan ran the ball at will last week vs a small MAC defensive front but that won’t happen this week. Wolverine starting QB McNamara only completed 9 passes and didn’t have to do much to get this win. He’s still fairly inexperienced and will have to do much more here to get this win vs a big step up in competition. That was made much more difficult with Michigan WR Bell (top offensive player on the team) was injured last week and is now out for the season. The Wolverine defense was OK last week but WMU did get into Michigan territory 6 times and came away with only 14 points. Washington has not been an underdog of 7 or more points since 2016. This team had an energetic week of practice after their upset loss and they will be ready here. This one will be close. Take the points. |
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09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State -4 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 31 m | Show | |
#350 ASA PLAY ON 8* Iowa State -4 over Iowa, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Iowa is coming off what looks like a dominating performance in their 34-6 win over Indiana last Saturday. Not so fast on that assumption. The Hawkeye offense scored only 2 TD’s while the defense had two pick 6’s accounting for 14 of the 34 points. Iowa barely totaled 300 yards and were held to just 4.7 YPP. Defensively Iowa looked great but remember they were facing an Indiana QB Penix who is not even close to 100% coming off ACL surgery for the 2nd time on the same knee. He couldn’t even plant to throw and it showed with 3 interceptions and just 156 yards passing on 31 attempts (a measly 5.0 yards per attempt). ISU got a scare last week at home as they struggled to top Northern Iowa 16-10. They played a similar game out of the gate last year and lost at home to Louisiana and then turned around and beat TCU and Oklahoma the next 2 weeks. The Cyclones were obviously looking ahead to this one last week and when facing one of the very best programs in FCS (Northern Iowa) was able to keep it close in a game that was their “super bowl” so to speak against a big boy in the state. ISU is simply better at nearly every unit in this game. They have the better QB (Purdy), one of the top RB’s in the country (Hall), 5-starters back on the offensive line, and defensively they return their 20 top tacklers from last year’s 9-3 team that beat Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. Iowa has one of the more inexperienced offensive lines in the nation (115th in starts returning), their QB Petras is inconsistent at best (under 50% completions last week for just 145 yards), he lost 2 of his top 3 WR’s, and the defense while still solid, lost almost their entire front 4. Iowa State is the much more complete team and they are at home. This is a HUGE game for the ISU program having lost 5 straight to their cross-state rivals. Iowa turned the ball over just ONCE in those 5 games combined (6 turnovers for ISU) and yet 2 of the last 3 meetings Iowa had to come from behind late in the 4th quarter to win by 1 point and by 3 points in OT. HC Matt Campbell is putting a big time emphasis on winning this game as to be expected. We like the Cyclones to win by at least a TD here. |
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09-11-21 | Miami-OH v. Minnesota OVER 53.5 | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show | |
#321/322 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 53.5 Points – Miami OH @ Minnesota, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We have a hard time seeing this game staying Under the Total, and in fact, will predict it’s Over the number early in the 4th quarter. Miami just faced a very good Cincinnati team and were steamrolled 49-14. The Bearcats ran for 8.0 yards per carry and 247 rushing yards in the game and put up nearly 550 total yards against the Redhawks. Minnesota has that same capability with their offense that just put up 408 total yards against a much better Buckeye defense, 203 of which came on the ground. The Gophers converted 8 of fourteen 3rd downs and dominated the ball for over 38 minutes. Miami was better offensively than the 14-points that showed up on the scoreboard last week in their opener. They held the ball for 34 minutes, put up 275 total yards of offense and had 4 possessions inside Cincinnati’s territory end without points. Two of those scoreless drives ended inside UC’s 20-yards line. They fared well against a Bearcat defense that allowed just 16PPG a year ago and 4.4 yards per play, which both ranked top 7 in the nation. Minnesota’s defense is expected to be improved this year, but they are nowhere near as good as UC’s. In their last seven games overall, five of the Gophers games have had posted Totals of 60 plus points by the oddsmakers. Weather looks great with temps on the 80s and light winds on Saturday in Minneapolis. We look for the Gophers to push close to or into the 40’s here and Miami OH gets to at least 20. This number is a bargain and we expect an easy OVER. |
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09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss -9 | 24-43 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* Mississippi -9 over Louisville, Monday - Ole Miss returns an experienced roster with 64 returning lettermen and 17 starters back. Contrast that to the Cardinals are one of the least experienced teams in the nation with just 14 starters back and a host of freshman. Both teams have their starting QB’s back but Rebels starter Matt Corral rates better than UL’s QB Malik Cunningham. Cunningham will be asked to carry the load offensively as he lost 4 of their top 6 receivers and top rusher while the Rebels return most of their skill players. Last year UL gave up 42+ vs. Miami, Ga Tech and Va Tech and none of those teams are near as good offensively as Ole’ Miss. Mississippi had horrible defense numbers a year ago, including allowing 38.3PPG, but those numbers came against much better teams and offenses in the SEC, including Bama and Florida, who were top 13 in scoring a year ago. An interesting factor in this line is that the number didn’t fluctuate with the announcement of Ole’Miss coach Lane Kiffin not being available to coach this game. That tells us Vegas doesn’t want to move off of a key number like -10 for fear of getting pounded by Mississippi money. Lay the points with Ole’Miss here. |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State OVER 55.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 35 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* OVER 55.5 Notre Dame @ Florida State, Sunday - Florida State 17 starters back, 10 on offense, 7 on defense. Notre Dame just 9 starters back, 3 on offense, 6 on defense but the Irish did land a solid QB transfer in Jack Coan from Wisconsin. Coan threw for over 2700 yards with 18 TD’s and 5 INT’s in 2019. Notre Dame has a rebuilt O-line BUT they bring back RB Williams who rushed for over 1100 yards a year ago. FSU is in year two of Mike Norvell’s rebuild and coming off a 3-6 SU season. Norvell brought his high-octane offense from Memphis so we know the Noles will want to play fast. They were 21st in plays run per game last season. The QB situation is up in the air with returner Jordan Travis or UCF transfer McKenzie Milton, but both have been solid this spring. The Irish beat FSU last year 42-26 which went well over the total of 53.5. Notre Dame gouged the Noles with 353 rushing yards and over 554 total yards. Florida States defense was one of the worst in the ACC last year and overall as they gave up over 37PPG which ranked 111th. Against quality teams such as ND the Noles gave up 52 to Miami, 42 ND, 28 UNC, 48 Louisville, 41 to Pitt and 38 to NC State. In last year’s meeting with the Golden Domers the Seminoles did put up over 400 yards of offense so we know they’re capable of trading point here. FSU closed the year on a 6-2 Over run which continues into this season. Notre Dame had 6 straight games of 31+ points to end the season before they ran into a pair of the best defenses in college football last season in Clemson and Alabama. Big rebound here in their season opener for the Irish offense. BET OVER! |
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09-04-21 | Utah State +17 v. Washington State | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State +17 over Washington State, Saturday at 11 PM ET - We expect USU to be drastically improved this year. This team was a train wreck last year and it was mainly due their leadership at the top. Former HC Gary Andersen was terrible. He quit at Wisconsin to take the Oregon State job. He then quit partway through the season on OSU and ended up back at Utah State where he was before he took the Badger job. USU was a rudderless ship last year and the players tanked the season to say the least. The players were so distraught they opted to not even play their final game of the season. They have since hired former Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson who was extremely successfully at ASU with a 51-37 record including 6 bowl appearances. He brought a few players with him from Arkie State including his starting QB Bonner who along with last year’s USU starter Peasley gives the Aggies a decent QB room. Word from Logan, Utah is the players love their new coach and have an entirely different attitude entering this season. They are experienced with 19 starters back and Anderson brought in a number of key Power 5 transfers from programs like Michigan, Texas, Georgia Tech, and Kansas who will contribute. This is a play against WSU as well. It’s really tough to lay 17 points with a defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone over the last few seasons. The Cougs allowed 38 PPG last season (1-3 overall record) and 32 PPG in 2019. They allowed 450+ YPG in both of those seasons. 2nd year head coach Rolovich came from Hawaii and he likes to run an up tempo offense trying to outscore opponents but last year they averaged just 27 PPG. Utah State should be able to put points on the board in this game and Washington State will have a tough time running away with this. Take the big points with USU. |
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09-04-21 | Nevada v. California -3 | 22-17 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 22 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* California -3 over Nevada, Saturday 10:30 PM ET - Nevada is a bit of a media darling with QB Carson Strong garnering Heisman attention which has impacted the number and forced it to be set lower than it should be. The Wolfpack offense posted some impressive numbers a year ago with Strong throwing 27 TD’s and over 2,800- passing yards last season. Nevada was 7-2 SU in a shortened season a year ago, but their record and numbers were a by-product of weak competition. The Wolfpack didn’t have a win over a team ranked higher than 53rd in our final rankings and four of those wins came versus teams ranked 97th or worse. So even though Nevada returns 22 overall starters, and had a solid record on paper, they aren’t as good as advertised. Cal is also loaded with returning talent and should be eager after playing just four games a year ago. The Bears return their starting QB in Chase Garbers who has 23 career starts under his belt. Cal has experience on the other side of the football with 9 starters back on a defense that can nullify the Wolfpack offense. The Bears have struggled in the Pac-12 going back to 2018 with a 9-13 SU record and a negative point differential, but they are 7-1 SU their last eight non-conference games with an average MOV of +9PPG. Grab the value and Cal. |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 63 h 36 m | Show |
#153 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State +3.5 over Northwestern, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - Our power ratings have MSU as a small favorite in this game so we feel the value is on Sparty. They had a rough season last year with a 2-5 record, however it was their first year under new HC Tucker and we expect some solid improvement with a full year in both the offensive and defensive system. They return almost all of their key offensive players including an OLine that has combined to make 147 career starts which is the 4th most nationally. MSU upgrades at QB where they struggled greatly last year by adding Temple transfer Anthony Russo who had over 6,000 yards passing and 44 TD’s in his Temple career. The Spartans running game was poor last year but that should also improve greatly with a steady offensive line and Wake Forest transfer Walker starting at RB. Northwestern lost as much experience as any team in the country. They surprised many by winning the Big 10 West last year but bring back only 8 starters. The Cats lost their starting QB, most of their offensive line, and their top 4 pass catchers. Defensively they lost many of their key contributors including their top corner (to the NFL), top 2 pass rushers, and top 2 LB’s. Hunter Johnson was named the starting QB of the inexperienced offense and that’s not a good thing for NW. He was handed the job in 2019 and proceeded to complete just 46% of his passes, threw just 1 TD, and led an offense that averaged 14 PPG in his 6 starts. Their only win with Johnson at the helm was vs UNLV and he battled again for the job last year and did not play a single down during the season. Now he’s back as the starter. Not good. MSU had a down year in 2020, while NW won the Big 10 West yet in their only meeting a season ago the Spartans topped the Cats 29-20. It wasn’t a fluke as MSU outgained Northwestern by almost 100 yards and dominated in the trenches with 195 yards rushing while holding the Cats to 63. Now we expect a big improvement from Michigan State while Northwestern takes a big step back. No reason to believe MSU won’t win again this year taking that into consideration. NW has very little home field advantage with a 9-9 SU record here the last 3 season (very few fans, small stadium that is often overrun by opposing fans). Take the points with Michigan State |
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09-02-21 | East Carolina v. Appalachian State -10 | 19-33 | Win | 100 | 37 h 22 m | Show | |
#140 ASA PLAY ON 8* Appalachian State -10 over East Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We like the value of the move in this game as App State opened a 13-point favorite and are now laying -10-points. There is one decided advantage Appalachian State has in this match-up and it's their ground game against the Pirates rush defense. The Mountaineers return a bevy of playing time on the O-line and 8-starters on offense. App State averaged 253-rushing yards per game a year ago (8th best) and 5.2-yards per rush (5th). They exploited an ECU defense that couldn’t stop the run allowing 201.3-rushing yards per game (95th) and 5.2-yards per rush allowed (103rd). Appalachian State has a void to fill at QB, but Chase Brice, a Clemson/Duke transfer, should fit in nicely. The ‘Neer’s defense has historically been a strength and will be again in 2021-22 with 9 starters back on that side of the football. East Carolina is expected to finish near the bottom of the conference again and will have a tough time in this game against a veteran App State team. ECU does return talent on the offensive side of the football, but their defense allowed 42PPG in 2019 and 34PPG last year. ECU was 3-6 SU last year with four of those losses coming by double-digits. Appalachian State was 9-3 SU last season with an average margin of victory of +13.8PPG. |
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09-02-21 | South Florida v. NC State -18 | Top | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
#142 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State -18 over South Florida, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We like NC State to be a surprise team in the ACC. We rate them as the 2nd best team in the Atlantic Division behind Clemson. The Wolfpack are coming off an 8-4 season and 2 of those losses were by 3 points or less. They are one of the more experienced teams in the nation with 20 starters returning. Not only that, they have 28 players we’d consider “starters” due to the number of minutes they’ve played even when not starting. Their QB Leary played last year but was banged up for much of the season and he is back healthy. They have a solid and experienced offensive line, they bring back all of their top RB’s and WR’s and their defense returns it’s top 12 tacklers from last year. USF is in rebuilding mode in HC Jeff Scott’s 2nd year. The Bulls were decimated by Covid last year (as many teams were) and finished 1-8 with their only win coming vs the Citadel. 5 of their 8 losses came by at least 20 points. Since the start of the 2019 season this team has won only 5 games and 2 of those 5 wins were vs non FBS opponents (the Citadel & South Carolina St). They have a new starting QB Fortin who threw only 8 passes in last year’s injury riddled season. The offense topped 4.5 yards per play only 3 times in 8 games vs FBS teams last year and breaking in a new QB they will probably struggle early in the year. The Bulls defense was poor last year to say the least allowing 40 PPG on 441 YPG including getting whipped up front giving up 212 YPG rushing. They put zero pressure on the opposing QB netting just 7 sacks the entire season – only Navy & Arizona had fewer. USF has played 3 Power 5 teams the last 2 seasons (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, & Georgia Tech) and they’ve lose those games by an average score of 38-3. This is a bad first match up for this team and we expect a 20+ point win for NC State. |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 510 h 30 m | Show |
#300 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +7 over Nebraska, Saturday, August 28th at 12:00 PM ET - There is always a lot of optimism in Huskerland entering every season, however the results have not matched the “fan” expectations. This team is favored by a full TD, on the road in their Big 10 opener yet they are just 9-17 SU overall in conference play under head coach Scott Frost. They have won just 4 conference games by more than 7 points in the last 3 years. We believe they are overvalued entering the season (as per usual) and their opponent in game 1 we feel is a bit undervalued right now. The Illini had a rough 2-6 season last year but they were decimated at QB pushing all the way down to their 4th stringer due to injury/illness. This year they expect senior Brandon Peters, former Michigan starter, to have a big season and we agree. He’s operating behind a very solid, veteran offensive line that could turn out to be one of the better units in the conference. The defense returns 16 of their top 18 tacklers and new head coach Bret Bielema knows defense and likes what he sees on that side of the ball. Up front they should be vastly improved defensively with their entire DLine coming back, all upperclassmen, and a few key LB’s back in the line up that were injured last season. They should be able to limit a Nebraska running game that relies too heavily on QB Martinez (leading rusher last year). The Huskers don’t have a single RB returning that rushed from more than 75 yards the entire 2020 season. That means Nebraska may have to have a big day through the air to win this one and we simply don’t trust QB Adrian Martinez who finished 12th in the Big 10 averaging only 150 YPG passing last year. Despite their struggles last season, the Illini were able to waltz into Lincoln and whip the Huskers 41-23 on nearly 500 yards of total offense. The year before Nebraska went to Illinois and barely escaped with a 42-38 win. We expect Illinois to have a solid shot at winning this game at home and getting a TD is generous. Bielema and his new staff have pretty much given the fans and media no access to practices so Nebraska will be guessing a bit when it comes to what Illinois will be doing on both sides of the ball here. Take the points. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama UNDER 75 | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
#499/500 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 75 Points – Ohio State vs Alabama, Monday at 8 PM ET - This is the highest total ever set in a National Championship game and we think it’s too high. The previous high total set by the oddsmakers in this game was back in 2014/15 season when Ohio State faced Oregon with the number set at 72. The two teams combined to score 62 points staying under by 10 full points. The average total scored in the 6 FBS National Championship games is 64.8 points. We understand why this total is set so high because the public likes to bet overs and focus on offenses. These are two of the best offenses in the country. However keep in mind the defenses in these games will be among the best each offense has seen this year as well. Last week was the first time in their last 8 games that Bama faced a defense ranked inside the top 47. Notre Dame was ranked 21st in total defense and held the Tide to 31 points on 437 total yards both well below their averages. Prior to last week’s game vs Clemson, the Buckeyes had faced 2 top 30 defenses this season and scored 22 & 38 points in those games for an average of 30 PPG. That’s not getting it done here with the total set as high as it is. OSU played the perfect game on offense last year. One Big 10 coach said he’d never seen QB Fields play a better game in his career. Can he duplicate that vs Bama with injured ribs and Saban watching the film and having extra time to get ready? We don’t think so. Bama’s offense is great but we expect OSU to try and run the ball and keep them off the field here. Funny to say, but OSU has to slow this game down to have a decent shot to win. If they can do that, we think they can, it’s going to be very tough to hit this total. This is the highest total for BOTH of these teams this season. OSU has not had a total in the 70’s this year. Bama has had a few in the 70’s including their game vs Florida which was set at 74 and their game vs Ole Miss which was set at 74. Those numbers alone tell us we’re getting value on the under here as Florida’s offense is absolutely on par with OSU’s offense however the Buckeye defense is much better than the Gators. The Ole Miss offense is one of the tops in the country (3rd nationally) but their defense is atrocious. All it takes is one bad quarter or a few long, time eating drives in this game and the Under will be looking very good. Take the UNDER here. |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
#496 ASA PLAY ON Iowa State -3.5 over Oregon, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The Big 12 has shown themselves very well thus far with Oklahoma rolling over Florida, Oklahoma State topping Miami, and Texas crushing Colorado (WVU won as well). The Pac 12 has had just one game and that was the blowout we just mentioned. The Buffs were a near perfect 4-1 in Pac 12 play this year and they took on a depleted Texas team, with a number of starters opted out, in the Alamo Bowl and lost 55-23. Iowa State played those teams (Texas & Oklahoma) to the wire this year beating OU by 7 and Texas by 3 in the regular season and then losing to OU by 6 in the Big 12 Championship game. Their only other Big 12 loss this season was by a FG to Oklahoma State. Thus, there 2 conference losses came against bowl teams who both won their bowl games (OU in blowout fashion) by a combined 9 points (they did lose to another bowl team UL Lafayette in the season opener way back in early Sept). Their 8 Big 12 wins came by an average of +18.3 PPG. They are rolling on both sides of the ball right now. On offense the Cyclones have put up at least 435 yards of total offense in 5 of their last 6 games. They actually outgained Oklahoma in their Conference Championship loss but had 3 turnovers. They have also averaged 37 PPG during that stretch. On defense they’ve held their last 6 opponents to an average of just 17.6 PPG. While ISU was obviously disappointed to lose in the Big 12 Championship game, we’re hearing they are thrilled to be playing in the Fiesta Bowl, which is the most prestigious bowl this program has ever played in. Oregon was supposed to be the top team in the weak Pac 12 this year but that wasn’t the case. They did beat USC in the Pac 12 Championship game but the Ducks weren’t even supposed to be in that game. They backed in when Washington, the Pac 12 North Champs, weren’t able to field enough players due to a covid outbreak. Even though they beat the Trojans to win the conference, Oregon was outgained by 115 yards in that game and scored their first 2 TD’s on drives of 9 and 32 yards following USC turnovers. Two of their other three wins were vs teams that finished the season below .500. Their 2 losses were vs Oregon State (finished with a 2-5 record) and California (finished with a 1-4 record). Oregon played a weak schedule and their season stats weren’t overly impressive with a +20 YPG differential. Compare that to Iowa State, who played a much tougher schedule, and had a YPG differential of +97. ISU is better in the trenches running the ball for 192 YPG while allowing only 105 on the ground. The Cyclones are also better at the key position on the field, quarterback. ISU QB Purdy is finishing up his 3rd year as the starter and has thrown for nearly 9,000 yards and 61 TD’s. Oregon starter Shough is fairly inexperienced as this is his first year as a starter and he’s not a great passer. We also like the coaching match up here as ISU’s Campbell is FAR superior to the Ducks Cristobal. We like Iowa State to win this game by double digits. |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Georgia OVER 51 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
#327/328 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51 Points – Cincinnati vs Georgia, Friday at 12 PM ET - This total has crept up from 49.5 to 51 points and we still think it’s much too low. The Georgia offense has been rolling since switching QB’s to former USC starter JT Daniels. Since taking the reigns on November 21st, the UGA offense led by Daniels, has scored 31, 45, and 49 points. They’ve also averaged 500 YPG of total offense in those 3 games after averaging 382 YPG prior to making the switch at QB. Cincinnati’s defense 13th nationally but that number is drastically inflated in our opinion. The AAC has a few good offenses but the conference definitely isn’t great on that side of the ball. The best offense they faced this year was UCF who put up 33 points. Of the other 8 offenses they faced, one was an FCS opponent, 2 others ranked in the top 41 and the rest were all ranked 57th over lower. In the AAC Championship game they allowed 24 points to a Tulsa team that is ranked 57th in total offense. On the other side of the ball, Cincy is very good ranking in the top 20 nationally in total offense, rush offense, and scoring. The scored at least 36 points in 6 of their 9 games this season. Now they did face some poor defenses, we realize that, however the best defense they faced was Tulsa, one of the better defenses in the country, and they scored 27 in that game and it should have been much more. The Bearcats put up 420 yards in that game and they missed a short FG and were shutout on downs at the Tulsa 5 yard line. They are very balanced offensively and have an experienced dual threat QB Ritter who is a 3 year starter. UGA’s defense also has very good numbers but they were the beneficiary of facing perhaps the easiest offensive schedule in the SEC. The Bulldogs faced just TWO offenses this season ranked inside the top 60 (Florida & Bama) and those teams put up 44 and 41 points respectively. Half of their SEC opponents (4) were ranked 96th or lower in total offense. Cincinnati will be the 3rd best offense this UGA defense has faced this season behind only Alabama and Florida. The Bearcats average just under 40 PPG (39.3) and Georgia averages 33 PPG despite their slow start. Both of these teams have the ability to get to 30 in this game but we don’t even need that to happen. If both reach at least 25 points this is going OVER. This game will have no weather situation as it’s being played in Mercedes Benz domed stadium in Atlanta so a fast track and perfect conditions for the offense. The projected score with UGA a 7-point favorite is 29-22. We like both teams to top their projected point total so we take the OVER in this game. |
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12-31-20 | Ball State v. San Jose State -9 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -9 over Ball State, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET - This SJSU team has flown under the radar the entire season. They are a perfect 7-0 and are seeking their first undefeated season since 1939. Just two seasons ago this team was 1-11. They are HIGHLY motivated to close out with an undefeated season and we expect to see the Spartans at their best on Thursday. If they are at their best, this team is much better than Ball State. All 7 of SJSU’s wins this year have come by double digits including a 14 point win over a very good Boise State team in the MWC Championship game. The Spartans outgained the Broncos by 240 yards in that game! For the season they outgained their opponents by more than 100 YPG and by a full 2 yards per play (6.9 YPP offense & 4.9 YPP defense) in the much tougher MWC (compared to the MAC). QB Starkel, who played at both Arkansas & Texas A&M, was a grad transfer who led this offense with over 300 YPG passing. The Spartans have one of the most potent passing attacks in the country which is bad news for a Ball State defense that allowed 296 YPG through the air (119th nationally). The 2 best pass offenses the Cardinals faced this season were Western Michigan & Toledo and those 2 teams put up 275 yards passing & 2 TD’s and 407 yards passing & 3 TD’s in those 2 games respectively. Ball State, on the other hand, relies heavily on their running game (45 carries per game but only 3.9 YPC) and they are facing an SJSU defense that gives up only 3.3 YPC. The 2 best rushing attacks they faced this season were Air Force (2nd nationally) & San Diego State (32nd nationally). They held the Falcons to 206 yards rushing (100 yards below their average) and the Aztecs to 101 yards rushing (99 yards below their average). Ball State ranks 53rd nationally running the ball and they’ll be without, by far, their best RB here (Caleb Huntley) who opted out after rushing for just under 3,000 yards in his career. This Spartan defense did not allow more than 24 points in a game this season and we like them to really slow down this Ball State attack. The Cards already won their “Super Bowl” so to speak by beating Buffalo in the MAC Championship game despite getting outgained 7.0 YPP to 5.5 YPP. Ball State was outgained 6.1 YPP to 5.8 YPP on the season despite playing an easier schedule than San Jose who was +2.0 YPP as we mentioned above. The MAC has been historically bad in bowl games with an 18-35-2 ATS record their last 55 as bowl underdogs. Ball State is also historically bad in bowl games going 0-7 SU lifetime with 5 of those 7 losses coming by at least 9 points. This game is being played out west in Arizona which is a definite positive for San Jose State. The Cardinal players are just happy to get away from the cold and snow in this vacation type game. We’ll lay the points with San Jose State as we expect the Spartans to roll in this game. |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin v. Wake Forest UNDER 52 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 52 Points – Wake Forest vs Wisconsin, Wednesday at 12 PM ET - Wake has played a grand total of ONE game since November 14th. Their most recent game was a 45-21 loss @ Louisville back on Dec 12 and HC Dave Clawson mentioned after the game his team was simply not in game shape after the long break in their schedule. Their up tempo offense, which averages 80 plays per game (8th nationally), only put up 351 yards on 72 plays in that game (4.8 YPP). His offense will have big problems again in this game as they’ve had another 2+ week break and if they weren’t in game shape vs Louisville they surely won’t be here either. On top of that, they are facing a Wisconsin defense that ranks #1 nationally in total defense allowing only 263 YPG. The Badger defense has given up a total of only 94 points in 6 games this season. The only decent defense WF faced this season was Clemson and they put up just 13 points in that game. The other 7 defenses the Demon Deacons faced had an average total defense ranking of just 68th and the highest ranked stop unit they faced besides Clemson was Louisville who closed the season ranked 41st. They’ll have problems scoring points in this game. Don’t expect the Badger offense to light up the scoreboard here either. They scored only 4 TD’s in their final 4 games of the season. You might argue that WF has a poor defense so Wisconsin should get back on track but we’re not buying it. They just played a Minnesota team that was among the worst defenses in the nation in YPP allowed and the WORST in YPC allowed and Wisconsin was able to score only 17 points in regulation. QB Mertz has really struggled with his confidence and it looks as though both of this starting WR’s, Pryor & Davis, will most likely sit here once again. With Wisconsin favored by 7 and a total of 52, the projected final score for this game is in the range of 30-23 or 29-22. Wisconsin is only averaging 10 PPG their last 4. No way they get to 30 in this game. And with Wake facing a top notch defense for the first time since early September, we don’t think they’ll top 20 points. Take the UNDER. |
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12-29-20 | Colorado +8.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-55 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
#297 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado +8.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - We know Colorado is thrilled to be in the Alamo Bowl. We’re not so sure Texas can say the same. Once again the Longhorns had much higher aspirations and fell short of their goals with a 6-3 record. They blew out a poor KSU team to end the season and might be taking this one lightly or have little interest at all. The Horns have had a number of opt outs for this game including top WR Eagles, starting LT Cosmi, starting C Kerstetter, starting DE Ossai, starting DT Graham, and starting safeties Sterns & Brown. That doesn’t sound like a team that cares all that much about this game. There is still talk about whether HC Herman is the right man for the program after underachieving during his tenure and he now has former players chiming in on his lack of coaching acumen. Just not a great overall situation to close out the season for Texas. The Buffs were a surprise this year under new head coach Dorrell. They are 4-1 SU & ATS and by all indications the players love their new head coach. They won 2 games outright as an underdog and Dorrell has been fantastic as an underdog covering 12 of his last 13 when getting points dating back to his HC days at UCLA. Their only loss this season was vs Utah in their season finale, a game Colorado actually led 21-10 in the 3rd quarter. They outgained and outrushed 4 of their 5 opponents this season. Their offense should thrive here vs a Texas defense that allowed 410 YPG and is without many of their top players as mentioned above. Even in their blowout win over KSU to close out the season, the Horns gave up 448 total yards to a Wildcat offense that ranks 106th in total offense. We’re confident that CU will stay in this game throughout and we’re getting more than a TD as a cushion. Take the points. |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +1.5 | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
#296 ASA PLAY ON 8* Miami FL +1.5 over Oklahoma State, Tuesday at 5:30 PM ET - We love the situation here with Miami coming off a blowout loss vs UNC to end the season while OSU steps in off a blowout win over Baylor. The Canes failed to cover that home finale vs the Heels by 39 points and the Cowboys covered their finale by 33 points. With that in mind, bowl underdogs coming off a season ending SU loss as a favorite are 25-9 ATS if playing a bowl opponent that won their season ender by at least 17 points. Miami will have plenty of motivation which is key when handicapping bowl games. On top of everything above, the Canes lost last year as a bowl favorite getting shutout by La Tech 14-0 providing an extra spark of motivation for this game. Take a listen to Miami starting safety Bubba Bolden this week, “we are coming into this game with a lot of fire, I’ll tell you that right now...We take this very personally, and after the last game’s performance, that was not the Miami way.’’ They also received a mental boost this week when star QB King (2,500 yards passing / 600 yards rushing / 22 TD’s) said he’s coming back next year. We have no doubt the Canes are fully focused for this game in which they have the travel edge with this game being played in Orlando. OSU started the season 4-0 but closed just 3-3 over their last 6 games with their 3 wins all coming vs teams that finished the season below .500. They leaned on their defense early in the season but the regressed heavily on that side of the ball down the stretch allowing 30 PPG over their last 6. Minus their final game vs Baylor (118th in total offense) this OSU defense allowed 38 PPG & 529 YPG over their final 4 (again minus Baylor). They were outgained in 4 of their final 5 games and their star RB Hubbard is not playing in this game. If not for their recent opposite end of the spectrum performances, the Canes would be favored in this game. Line value and motivation in Miami’s favor so we’ll take them to win this one. |
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12-26-20 | Western Kentucky v. Georgia State -3.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -3.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Conference USA has proven to be a dud on the bowls thus far. They are currently 0-4 getting outscored by a whopping 85 points in those 4 games. When the Sun Belt has faced off vs CUSA in the bowl games thus far, the Belt is 2-0 with Georgia Southern beating La Tech 38-3 & App State beating North Texas 56-28. That’s relevant because we have Georgia State (from the Sun Belt) facing Western Kentucky (from CUSA) in this game. Western Kentucky has one of the worst offenses in college football ranking 120th in total offense, 111th in passing offense, 99th in rushing offense, and 115th in scoring. There’s been some chatter about their offense coming to life in easy wins over Charlotte & FIU, who have a 2-9 combined record, but what looks like a scoring outburst from the Hilltoppers wasn’t so much as they scored 4 defensive TD’s in those 2 games combined. The fact is, this team has scored a grand total of 19 offensive TD’s in 11 games this year. That’s it. They are facing a Georgia State team that averaged 33 PPG on the season and WKY’s highest offensive output the entire season was just 24 points (minus defensive TD’s). While Western Kentucky’s defense has solid numbers on the year, this is a bad match up for them. The strength of their defense is on the back end as they defend the pass very well. Their rush defense allows 166 YPG and they are facing a GSU offense that loves to run (43 carries per game for 190 yards). The Georgia State defensive numbers aren’t great but they really played well down the stretch allowing just 18 PPG over their last 3 games which included match ups with App State (GSU lost 17-13) and Georgia Southern (State won 30-24) who both won their bowl games already in blowout fashion. State is solid vs the run which matches up well with a WKY that likes to run (but isn’t great at it averaging 3.9 YPC) but it not a good passing team. Georgia State has already proven to be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt taking App State & Louisiana, the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the league, to the wire in tight losses and beating Georgia Southern. The only team they weren’t competitive with was Coastal Carolina who is ranked 12th in the country with an 11-0 record. As we mentioned the Sun Belt has walloped CUSA in their 2 meetings thus far and we have no reason to believe Georgia State can’t cover this small number on Saturday. |
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12-25-20 | Marshall v. Buffalo UNDER 55 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show |
#279/280 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 55 Points – Marshall vs Buffalo, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - Buffalo has been a high scoring team all season long. The problem is, they’ve faced a horrible set of defenses this year. The best defense they have faced this season ranks 55th in total defense. Their other 6 opponents all rank 75th or lower in total defense including 2 that rank 110th or lower. The Bulls also have the top rushing attack in the country averaging over 300 YPG. Same situation here. The rush defenses they’ve faced are flat out bad. Three of their opponents rank 121st or lower in rush defense and only one ranks higher than 47th. That is Miami OH who held Buffalo to over 100 yards below their rushing average. Now the Bulls face the best defense, by far, they’ve seen this season. Marshall ranks 3rd nationally in total defense and 2nd in rush defense which matches up perfectly vs this Buffalo offense. The Herd are allowing just 12 PPG this season (1st nationally) and only one team has topped 20 points on this defense. Buffalo will not run wild here. On the other side of the ball Marshall is dealing with some key defections on offense. Their top RB Knox (first team all conference) has opted out for this game. He is a huge part of their offense as he put up nearly 900 yards rushing in their 7 games this season. They run the ball an average of 39 times per game and Knox gets most of those carries. Their starting left tackle has also decided to sit this one out. Marshall was really struggling offensively anyway scoring only 13 points & 500 yards TOTAL in their last 2 games of the season vs Rice & UAB. There is a reason a team that averages 48 PPG on the season (Buffalo) & 30 PPG on the year (Marshall) has their total set at just 54 points. Looks way to easy to take the over here and digging deeper we absolutely the UNDER in this game. |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston OVER 59.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
#277/278 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 59.5 Points – Houston vs Hawaii, Thursday at 3:30 PM ET - Houston’s defense isn’t great to begin with as they’ve allowed at least 30 points in all but 2 games this year and now they will be short handed. Their top tackler (LB) and top sack man have both opted out for this game. The 2 teams who did not reach 30 points on Houston this year were Navy, who ranks 121st nationally in scoring and USF who ranks 101st nationally in scoring. Everyone has had their way with this defense. Hawaii’s stop unit isn’t any better. They have allowed 30 or more in every game but 2 as well including a UNLV offense that ranks 117th in scoring offense. Both defenses rank outside the top 20 in total defense allowing more than 400 YPG. Both defenses are also terrible at slowing down or stopping explosive plays each ranking 93rd or lower in defending both pass and rush explosiveness. Both of these offenses will be able to move the ball and score points. Houston’s offense has topped 400 total yards in every game but one this season and that was vs Cincinnati who has a top 15 total defense. The Hawaii offense was a bit more up and down this season, however they were able to score at least 24 points in 6 of their 8 games. We feel they’ll look good here vs a depleted Houston defense that wasn’t good to begin with. Both teams can reach into the 30’s here and we’ll take the OVER. |
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12-23-20 | Georgia Southern -6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
#273 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Southern -6 over Louisiana Tech, Wednesday at 3:00 PM ET - We can take quite a bit from Monday’s bowl match up between App State & North Texas and apply it to this game. App State dominated that game rushing for over 500 yards in a 56-28 win. What does that have to do with this game? Well Georgia Southern plays in Sun Belt along with App State and La Tech plays in CUSA along with North Texas. Southern faced App State on the road in the final game of the regular season and gave them all they could handle. They actually led in the 4th quarter and were outgained by only 32 yards. La Tech played North Texas on December 3rd and while they won by 11 points, the Bulldogs were outgained both on a YPP and YPG basis. That’s the same UNT team that App State outgained 11.3 YPP to 5.2 YPP on Monday. UNT ran 95 offensive snaps to just 56 for App State and STILL lost by 4 TD’s. Ga Southern runs a unique triple option scheme on offense that is tough to prepare for. The Eagles rank 7th nationally in rushing at 262 YPG. La Tech is not a strong run defense ranking 88th so GSU should control the line of scrimmage here. The Eagles starting QB Werts was out the last 2 games, including their down to the wire loss @ App State, but has been practicing a most likely will play here. Even if not, the starter will be senior Moseley who has plenty of experience in this offense. Speaking of offense, La Tech is a wreck on that side of the ball. They rank 113th nationally in total offense and they will be without their starting QB Anthony here who was lost to a season ending injury in their regular season finale. His back up Allen only attempted 97 passes this season and this team can’t run the ball (97 YPG rushing) which will put more pressure on the QB to make plays. Tech has a 5-4 record on the season but they were outgained on a YPP basis in every game this year (minus Houston Baptist). They average only 4.1 YPP in their 8 games vs FBS opponents and will struggle to keep up here. Georgia Southern wins the trenches on both sides of the ball here and a team that can do that normally comes out on top. Lay it with Georgia Southern. |
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12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada OVER 56.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
#270 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 56.5 Points – Tulane vs Nevada, Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET - The Tulane offense improved greatly in the 2nd half of the season as freshman QB Pratt acclimated to the offense and the college game. He came on strong in the 2nd half of the season throwing for over 200 yards in 4 of his last 6 games after not topping 200 in his first 3 starts. The Green Wave has a very solid running game ranking 19th nationally at 219 rushing YPG and once Pratt started opening up the passing game as well, this offense took off. In the last 6 games they’ve scored at least 30 points in all but one game and that was vs Tulsa who has a top 25 total defense & scoring defense. Even with that, Tulane put up 24 in that game. We full expect them to get to 30 points here. Nevada’s defense ranks 46th nationally in total defense but they’ve played a very weak schedule of offenses including Utah State, UNLV, and San Diego State. On offense, Nevada matches up very well vs Tulane’s defense. The Wolfpack are one of the better passing teams in the country averaging 325 YPG through the air (9th nationally). Their senior QB Strong, who ranks 6th nationally in passing YPG and in the top 20 in passing efficiency, should have a field day vs a Nevada defense that ranks 85th nationally in pass defense. On top of that, Tulane’s all time sack leader and first team all conference DE Johnson will be out for this game only helping Nevada’s passing attack. With the weather looking good in Boise (temp in the upper 30s and winds 10 to 15 MPH) we expect both of these teams to get to 30 points. Take the OVER here. |
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12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State -21 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* App State -21 over North Texas, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - App State is the FAR superior team here and they are motivated. This is a senior laden squad that is looking for their 5th straight bowl win. The seniors have addressed the team wanting to make sure they go 4-0 in their careers in bowl games. Football Outsiders has App State is ranked as 28th best team and UNT 122nd (out of 130). Our numbers concur with that. App State is by far the best team North Texas has played this season. SMU is next best ranked 44th and they beat UNT by 30. The Mean Green also lost to the 95th ranked team (UTSA) by 32 and the 116th ranked team (Charlotte) by 28. North Texas had one of the better offenses in the country this year, however they played a horrible slate of defenses. App State will be by far the best defense they’ve faced this year. They will also be short handed as their #1 offensive weapon, WR Darden who accounted for nearly half of their receiving yards this season and scored 19 TD’s, tops in the nation. They will also be minus one of their 2 QB’s which is significant as they’ve rotated throughout the year and their missing QB, Aune, is their best passer. UNT horrible defensively especially vs the run (243 rushing YPG allowed) and App St a very good running team (243 rushing YPG). They give up 41 PPG on the season. They have allowed at least 40 points vs 6 of their 8 FBS opponents this season. They won’t stop App State in this game. With their offense not a full strength and facing the best defense they’ve seen, we don’t expect UNT to put up a ton of points here. While App State is going for their 6th straight bowl win, the Mean Green are 1-5 their last 6 bowl appearances and their most recent post-season appearance was a 52-13 loss in the 2018 New Mexico Bowl. This one has blowout potential. |
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12-19-20 | Stanford v. UCLA UNDER 59 | Top | 48-47 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: Under 59 Stanford and UCLA, 7PM ET UCLA just faced USC last week and that game had a total set of 65 and USC is waaaayyyy better offensively than Stanford. The Trojans are top 25 in many offensive categories including yards per point and overall scoring (35.2PPG). Stanford can’t say the same as they rank 99th in yards per point offense, 65th in total yards per game and 84th in scoring at 25PPG. Both teams have better than average scoring defenses as both allow less than 29PPG on the season. Earlier this season Stanford played Colorado (similar to UCLA) and the two teams combined for 67 points in mid-November. Stanford scored 2 TD's in the final 8 minutes of that game and converted a pair of 2-point conversions or that could have very easily been 51 total points. In games against similar teams to Stanford the Bruins have played a few ugly low scoring games (Arizona State 43 total points, Arizona 37, Cal 44). Neither team has anything left to play for, so we don’t expect a shootout here. Stanford is one of the slower paced teams in all of college football and this will be the highest Total on a Cardinal game this season. Last year when these two teams met the O/U set by Vegas was 48.5 and they combined for 50-points. |
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12-19-20 | Illinois v. Penn State -15 | Top | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
#214 ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State -15 over Illinois, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET Two teams definitely headed in opposite directions here. PSU has saved their season after starting 0-5 they have now rebounded to win 3 straight. Word out of Happy Valley is they are now having fun and excited to be playing and you can see it in their performance. Illinois, on the other hand, just got trounced by their in-state rival Northwestern and fired their coach this week. Now they have to go on the road and try to muster up the energy to play in a meaningless game with a lame duck interim coach. This is a very tough spot for the Illini. The Illinois defense is bad ranking dead last in the Big 10 in total defense, 13th in rush defense, and their pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete 70% of their passes, the worst in the league. Last Saturday they allowed Northwestern to roll up 411 yards rushing. The Cats aren’t a great running team as they were averaging only 3.1 YPC entering last week. PSU’s offense has come alive during their 3 game winning streak averaging 30 PPG over those 3 and now they face the worst defense they’ve seen this year. The Nittany Lions are much better than their record. They were a top 10 team to start the season. They’ve outgained every team this year with the exception of Ohio State & Iowa. This team is 3-5 but they rank 2nd in the Big 10 in total offense and 4th in total defense. They can be vulnerable at times defending the pass, however Illinois is the worst passing team in the conference both on a YPG basis (180 YPG) and on a completion percentage basis (just 48%). On top of that, their best WR opted out this week and won’t play in this game. The records here are similar but there is really a pretty wide gap between these two. ON the season PSU has a +76 YPG differential and Illinois is -91 YPG. Just comparing these two alone, PSU is +51 YPG on offense and +116 YPG defensively. If Illinois gets down in this game, which we feel they will, we have a feeling this could get ugly. |
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12-19-20 | Air Force -2.5 v. Army | 7-10 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
#205 ASA PLAY ON 8* Air Force -2.5 over Army, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET The situation heavily favors Air Force here. On top of that, they are the better team despite the records. Air Force was at home last weekend preparing for this rivalry while Army was playing their biggest rival, Navy last Saturday. It has to be a weird situation playing a game the week following Navy as that never happens. Those 2 always play in the final regular season college football game each year. Army won 15-0 but it was far from impressive. They had just 8 first downs and 162 total yards in the win. Air Force played Navy earlier this season and beat them 40-7 outgaining them by 170 yards. We understand that doesn’t always correlate but that was their only common opponent and AF was far superior in that comparison. Air Force is 3-2 on the year with their 2 losses coming at the hands of Boise State & San Jose State who have a combined 12-1 record. They actually outgained Boise and SJSU had just 3 more total yards in their meeting with the Falcons. Army is 8-2 on the year but they’ve played a brutally easy schedule including 3 FCS teams. There is a reason that a 3-2 team is favored over an 8-2 team on the road. Both of these teams obviously run the ball as much as anyone in the country. Air Force is simply better at it on both sides of the ball. On offense they put up 336 YPG on 5.9 YPC while Army averages 280 YPG rushing on 4.8 YPC. Defensively the numbers are closer but AF still has the advantage vs the run. The Falcons have topped 400 yards of offense in every game but 1 this year. Army topped 400 yards of offense just twice in 10 games and those were against Abilene Christian (throw that out) and UL Monroe, whose defense ranks 122nd nationally vs the run. AF has simply dominated this series with a 19-4 SU record since 1987, 17-6 ATS. They’ve also covered 10 of the last 11 times they’ve traveled to Army. This is a small number to lay in our opinion. Air Force is the side. |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma -5.5 v. Iowa State | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8*: Oklahoma -5.5 over Iowa State, 12 PM ET We are betting the number here and taking the dominant Sooners in this Big 12 Championship game. Earlier this season OU was favored by a touchdown at Iowa State and now laying less than that on a neutral field. This number should be 10-points at a minimum and our power ratings has Oklahoma favored by 12-points. Both teams come into this game playing well with ISU winning five straight, OU six W’s in a row. Examining the yards per play numbers for both teams we find they are relatively equal with Oklahoma holding a slight edge in both offensive and defensive yards per play. Looking at two common opponents (Baylor and Oklahoma State) we find Oklahoma was much bigger favorites in both games and had dominating wins (+41 total points) while ISU lost to Okie State by 3-points and barely beat Baylor by 7 (+4 total point differential). Iowa State is very well coached and has a solid roster but are in unfamiliar territory here while Oklahoma has been here, done that. The Sooners have dominated the Big 12 with a 83-18 winning record dating back to 2010 and they’ve won those games by an average margin of 15PPG. Lay it with the Oklahoma here. |
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12-18-20 | Oregon +3.5 v. USC | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon +3.5 over USC, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a classic underrated vs overrated spot in our opinion. Entering the season our research told us that Oregon was the best team in the Pac 12. We weren’t the only ones who shared that opinion as many other handicappers we respect felt the same way. Oregon lost 2 games along the way to their current 3-2 record. Both games were tight losses by 4 & 3 points and the Ducks had the ball late in the 4th quarter in each with a chance to win. What would this line be if Oregon had one both of those game which they certainly could have? In their most recent 21-17 loss @ Cal, the Ducks outgained the Bears by nearly 100 yards and had the ball in Cal territory in 3 of their last 4 possessions with a shot to win. Those possessions ended in 2 fumbles and a shut out on downs at the Bear 18 yard line. Speaking of fumbles, that has been a problem for the Ducks as they are -11 on the season, in just 5 games yet the STILL have a winning record. The Trojans are the exact opposite for us. They are very solid, but not as good as their 5-0 record. They’ve had to make 3 fourth quarter comebacks to get to their 5 wins. Last week vs arch rival UCLA, they trailed by 18 points made another late comeback scoring a TD with 16 seconds remaining in the game to win by 5. As long as Oregon doesn’t turn the ball over a bunch, we think USC’s luck runs out here. In fact, of the Ducks can keep this TO margin even, we have no doubt they’ll win this game. For the season the 3-2 Ducks are +47 YPG and +1.6 YPP. USC, vs a very similar schedule with 2 common opponents, is +35 YPG and only +0.1 YPP. Speaking of those common opponents this is where we see the value in this line with Oregon as a dog. They both played UCLA with Oregon favored by 18.5 in that game at home and USC favored by 3 at home. They both played Washington State with Oregon favored by 10.5 on the road and USC favored by 11 at home. Should Oregon actually be favored in this game. We wouldn’t disagree if that was the case. Take Oregon to win the Pac 12 Championship on Friday Night. |
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12-12-20 | Stanford v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
#124 ASA CFB TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State +3 over Stanford, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This is simply a terrible situation for Stanford. They are playing their 3rd straight road game and they haven’t even been home period since last Tuesday, Dec 1st. Santa Clara county announced that contact sports would be put on hold starting November 30th and lasting until at least December 21st. Because of that, the only way Stanford can play or practice was to leave the area. Last Tuesday they made their way to Seattle, stayed in a hotel, practiced where they could and then played Washington on Saturday. The Cardinal were able to pull together and pick up a huge upset beating the Huskies 31-26 as a 13 point underdog. That was just a week after they beat arch rival Cal 24-23. So now Stanford is off back to back huge wins and on the road again vs a team they probably will have trouble getting excited about, Oregon State. On top of that, Stanford traveled straight from Seattle to Corvallis, has been living in a hotel again this week preparing for this game and they are now a road favorite. Not ideal to say the least. OSU is underrated in our opinion. Two weeks ago they upset Oregon here 41-38 putting up 260 yards on the ground. Top RB Jefferson 226 yards. A week earlier they beat Cal here at home with Jefferson rushing for 196 yards vs a very good Golden Bear defense. After their big win over the Ducks, OSU traveled to Utah short handed missing a number of players due to covid including RB Jefferson. Starting QB Gebbia who was injured vs Oregon and is out for the season. Despite being shorthanded, they played a solid Utah team to the wire losing 30-24. Back up QB Nolan got his feet wet last week and played pretty well @ Utah throwing for 200 yards and rushing for 36. The Beavers get RB Jefferson back here along with some other key players who were out last week. They should be able to run the ball very well on this Stanford defense that ranks 100th nationally stopping the run. Bad spot for Stanford vs a undervalued OSU team. Take the points. |
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12-12-20 | Central Michigan v. Toledo -11 | 23-24 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
#410 ASA CFB PLAY ON 8* Toledo -11 over Central Michigan, Saturday at 3 PM ET - These two have the same 3-2 records, but Toledo is the much better team. The Rockets might just be the best overall team in the MAC this season. They rank 1st in the conference in total defense and 2nd in total offense. CMU ranks 9th in total defense and 6th in total offense. These two teams have each played 5 games on the year and 4 of those game vs common opponents. Because of that, the stats for each team need to be compared. Toledo has a +13 PPG differential, a +153 YPG differential and a +1.7 YPP differential on the season. CMU has a +1.5 PPG, a -3 YPG differential and -0.1 YPP differential on the season. If we break down the total yardage in just their 4 common opponents (Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Ball State, and Eastern Michigan), Toledo has outgained those opponents by +505 total yards while CMU has been outgained by -96 total yards. Toledo, despite their 2 losses (both by 3 points), has outgained every opponent they’ve played this season. They also have the best point differential in the MAC West. The Rockets only 2 losses came by 3 points vs Ball St & Western Michigan who sit tied for first place in the MAC West. Again, Toledo outplayed both of them on the stat sheet. Speaking of Ball State, Central Michigan played the Cards last Saturday and got thumped 45-20 getting outgained by 177 yards. The Chips had to go with their back up QB Brock (threw 2 interceptions) and he will get the go again here as the starter is banged up and will only be used in an emergency situation. Toledo will also be using their back up QB here, Carter Bradley, however he has plenty of experience playing in multiple games last season. He looked great last week throwing for 432 yards and 3 TD’s in the Rockets 41-24 win @ Northern Illinois. Extra motivation here for Toledo as well as they were walloped 49-7 in last year’s season finale @ Central Michigan. The favorite has covered 11 straight in this series and Toledo is 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they’ve faced CMU here at home. |
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12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -12.5 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin -12.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line opened with Wisconsin -11 and that was before IU knew their starting QB Penix was out for the season. Once that was announced this line jumped to -14 and we don’t think it’s enough. Penix is worth much more than 3 points to this team. He was a huge reason their offense was able to top 30 points in 4 of their first 6 games. He led the Big 10 in passing yards and has accounted for 16 of IU’s 24 TD’s this season. The best 2 teams IU played this season were PSU which they beat on OT 36-35 despite getting outgained by almost 300 yards. Then their game @ OSU was on the way to being a blowout with the Buckeyes up 35-7 when Penix went wild and threw for almost 500 yards and 5 TD’s to bring the Hoosiers back in that game. Without Penix, we have no doubt they lose vs PSU (who now has only 1 win on the season) and they get destroyed by OSU. What makes him even more important to this offense is the fact that Indiana can’t run the ball. They put up good numbers on the ground last week vs Maryland, who ranks 116th in rush defense, but prior to that they were averaging 73 YPG on the ground. That puts huge pressure on the QB to make plays and Penix was up to the task. Now they start Jack Tuttle who has 16 career pass attempts. On top of that they face a Wisconsin defense that is outstanding. The Badgers rank #1 nationally in total defense, #3 in rush defense, and #3 in pass defense. IU will not be able to run the ball in this game. Tuttle will have to have the game of his life to keep the Hoosiers in this one. We don’t see that happening. Wisconsin is fresh for this one. They had last week’s game vs Minnesota cancelled. HC Chryst mentioned his team was able to heal up with the week off after their loss @ Northwestern. In that game Wisconsin lost 17-7 but their were +5 first downs, +103 total yards, +112 rushing yards, and +15 minute time of possession. Problem is they had 5 turnovers which is unlike a Wisconsin team. They also played that game with both starting WR’s out and they were down to playing a freshman and 2 senior walk ons. Because of that, QB Mertz was out of synch with his receivers from the beginning and tried to force a few things which led to turnovers. The Badger defense held Northwestern to just 3.4 YPP in that loss and the Cats rushed the ball 23 times for 24 yards. Again, IU will not have success on the ground in this game. With the Badgers coming off a disappointing loss, with extra time to prepare, getting healthy (WR Davis is the only question mark on offense), and facing a team with an inexperienced QB we love this situation. On top of that, while the Badgers are rested and healthy, this will be Indiana’s 7th straight week without a break. We don’t think Wisconsin will have to score much to cover this number. With the total set at 45.5, the projected score is right around 30-16. We think the Badger offense gets rolling here and scores at least that while we would not be at all surprised if Indiana scores less than 14 points. Wisconsin has won 10 straight in this series and we think they take another here by more than 2 TD’s. |
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12-05-20 | West Virginia +6.5 v. Iowa State | 6-42 | Loss | -104 | 22 h 57 m | Show | |
#395 ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Iowa State is off a win at Texas last week and in the perfect spot for a letdown after all the late game dramatics in the win over the Longhorns. The Cyclones have won 4 straight games and now are in the ideal spot to get upended as West Virginia certainly does not want to see the Cyclones punch a ticket to the Big 12 title game at their expense. West Virginia has a fantastic defense and that will be a key in this game as Iowa State allowed 448 yards last week and is simply not on the same level defensively as the Mountaineers are. West Virginia is allowing only 274 yards per game on the season. On the other side of the ball, Mountaineers QB Doege has a 13-3 ratio and has helped lead the way for an offense averaging over 440 yards per game this season. While Cyclones QB Purdy is having a respectable season as well, the pass defense of WVU is giving up 76.5 yards per game less than the Iowa State pass defense. Our computer math modeling reflects Doege having strong odds for a bigger game than Purdy in this one. The Mountaineers will be the fresher team here as they have been off since November 14th while the Cyclones are playing for the 3rd time since November 21st. Big difference and that will prove important as this game gets further into the 3rd and 4th quarters. The Cyclones are ranked 12th in the nation while the Mountaineers are unranked and yet this line moved off the key number of 7 and settled in at 6.5 during the week. That is a strong indicator that sharps are siding with the dog here and the books are respecting that. We're putting our sharp money right there as well with the Mountaineers ranking among the top defenses in the country and WVU is sure to bring their A game for this match-up given the situation. This one has the right ingredients for a road dog upset and we're grabbing the points as West Virginia. |
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12-05-20 | Texas A&M v. Auburn +5.5 | 31-20 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 51 m | Show | |
#412 ASA PLAY ON 8* Auburn Tigers (+) over Texas A & M Aggies, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - First off this is an interesting line in this game. The Aggies are a highly-ranked team and opened up as low as a 4-point choice even though they are facing an unranked foe. Sure enough, as we expected, the betting markets jumped on Texas A & M and drove the line up to as high as a -7 before it settled in at a -6.5 as of Friday afternoon. We're happy to grab the additional line value here with the home dog Tigers as this one sets up very nicely. Auburn is 4-0 SU at home this season and enter this game off a road loss which was to be expected as they faced mighty Alabama last week. The Tigers are already 2-0 SU this season when off a loss and have covered 3 of their 4 home games on the year. Aggies QB Kellen Mond is coming off a very rough start (11 of 34 for just 105 yards) and that was against an LSU defense that has struggled this season. Now Mond faces a Tigers team that has allowed 17 points or less in 3 of its 4 home games this season. Taking a look at the offensive production in this one, Auburn has scored an average of 34.3 points per game at home this season. The Aggies had a blowout win in their most recent road game but that was against a bad South Carolina team. In their other two road games Texas A & M averaged only 26 points per game. The Aggies are off back to back big wins but against South Carolina and LSU (combined 5-11 record) and now face an Auburn team with a much better defense than those teams. The Tigers, on the other hand, just faced the toughest team in the nation and will respond after the 29-point loss to Alabama. The Aggies do have revenge here against Auburn but that is part of what is driving this line movement and revenge is often over-played. Per our computer math modeling, the line move will prove to be wrong in this one and the underdog offers solid line value here. This one has the makings of a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with Auburn. |
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12-03-20 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas -115 | Top | 42-31 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* North Texas Mean Green (-) vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, Thursday at 6:00 PM ET: Game #324 |
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11-28-20 | Rutgers v. Purdue -11 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
#194 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -11 over Rutgers, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We love this situation for the Boilers. They have lost 2 straight vs Northwestern & Minnesota so this is a very important home game for them. Last week’s loss @ Minnesota was the infamous invisible offensive pass interference game. Purdue scored a TD with under 1:00 remaining that seemingly gave them the win. However, a terrible offensive pass interference was called taking away the TD and Purdue threw an interception on the next play in their 34-31 loss. That game was on Friday which gave them an extra day to get ready for this must win game. The Boilermakers outgained Minnesota by 100 yards in the game & had 8 more first downs in the loss. We really liked what we saw from QB Plummer as he threw for 367 yards and 3 TD’s. He was replacing O’Connell who was the starter (out with injury) however we don’t consider Plummer a back up. He started 7 games a year ago and was in a neck & neck battle with O’Connell for this year’s starting job. We expect another big game from him vs a leaky Rutgers pass defense that ranks 95th nationally allowing 265 YPG through the air. Another huge addition for Purdue last week was WR Moore who was back in the line up for the first time this year. He is their best offensive weapon and accounted for 136 total yards last week. Purdue’s offense will put plenty of points on the board here vs a Rutgers defense that has allowed 37 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Rutgers had a crushing home defeat last week. They faced a Michigan team that obviously is not nearly as good as they’ve been in the past, but they still have the name recognition so it was a huge game for Rutgers. They jumped out to a 17-0 lead, then went down 35-27 late in the game, had to score a TD + 2 point conversion with under 1:00 minute remaining to send the game to OT. On top of that, the Scarlet Knights then missed a FG in OT that would have given them the win and they wound up losing in 3 OT’s. Now they have to go on the road and we just don’t see them playing well here after last week’s situation. Plus, while they are improved, they still only have 1 win vs Michigan State (Sparty turned the ball over 7 times in that game) and they’ve been outgained in every game. Even with their improvement, this Rutgers team ranks 91st nationally in total offense and 92nd in total defense. This is a bad match up for them vs a Purdue team that is now at full strength on offense and is flying under the radar right now. Rutgers has been a terrible road team with a 2-19 SU record their last 21 away from home and 17 of those losses have come by double digits. We also like the line value here. We have Purdue as 14 point favorite in our power ratings. Last week Michigan was favored by this same number (-11) @ Rutgers and Purdue is better than Michigan this yet only laying -11 here. Take the Boilermakers as this game has blowout potential. |
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11-28-20 | Northwestern v. Michigan State +13.5 | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
#180 ASA PLAY ON 8* Michigan State +13.5 over Northwestern, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We definitely look for Northwestern to be flat here after beating Wisconsin in their biggest game of the season last week. That game basically locked up the Big 10 West for the Cats, especially now that the Badgers are not eligible (need to play at least 6 games) to win the division after getting their game with Minnesota cancelled this week. The Cats haven’t been a great first half team to begin with this year. If we throw out their first game vs Maryland (43-3 win) the Wildcats have outscored their last 4 opponents by a combined 2 points in the first half. They’ve trailed at half in 2 of their last 4 games and they’ve been outgained in 3 of those games. 50 of the 60 points the Northwestern defense has allowed this year have come in the first half. They make great adjustments on that side of the ball at halftime allowing just 10 total points in the 2nd half this year. MSU had last week off after their game @ Maryland was cancelled. They used last Friday, Saturday, and Sunday to work on fundamentals which we think is key. They started prep for this game on Monday and coming of back to back losses vs Iowa & Indiana, we feel this is a rally the troops type home game for the Spartans. Their offense should have some success here in the first half vs Northwestern. They shouldn’t need much because the Cats simply don’t score many points in general and in the first half they are averaging just 13 PPG (last 4 games). If MSU gets to 7 or 10 here by halftime, we really like them to cover this first half line. Northwestern may regroup in the 2nd half, but we see them having a lackadaisical performance in the first 30 minutes. Even if adjustments are made at halftime and Northwestern is better in the 2nd half, we still don't see them scoring enough to cover this large spread. Take MICHIGAN STATE. |
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11-27-20 | Iowa State +1.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
#143 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State Cyclones (+) over Texas Longhorns, Friday at 12:00 PM ET - Texas has covered 4 straight games in this series and the Longhorns are at home here and very little separates these teams in the rankings and yet the line is a pick'em! This is even though the last time these teams met in Austin (just two years ago), UT won the game by two touchdowns and won the yardage battle by nearly 200 yards. That was then, this is now, and the Cyclones are positioned well here. Iowa State has won 6 of their last 7 games and the only loss in that stretch was a tight 24-21 defeat. The Cyclones will take advantage of a Texas team playing for the first time in 3 weeks. A scheduled bye week for the Longhorns was followed by a postponement last week as UT's game versus Kansas was pushed back to the end of the season. A break is good but not when it is too much of a break. Remember that the Longhorns also did not have a game in mid-October either. That means this game, near the very end of November, was preceded by just 3 games for UT since the 11th of October! The Longhorns were a favorite in this game when the line first popped up and though the line is moving toward a pick'em, it is worth mentioning that the Horns have a strong tendency to not perform as well at home under coach Herman. In fact, the Longhorns have covered only 3 of their last 13 as a home favorite! Iowa State has plenty of confidence entering this game as they have exploded for an average of 45 points per game during their current 3-game winning streak. QB Brock Purdy and the Cyclones will take advantage of a Texas pass defense allowing over 300 passing yards per game in its last 4 games. Though the Horns run defense has been solid, Iowa State running back Breece Hall is leading the nation in rushing with nearly 1,200 yards on the ground plus he has run for 15 touchdowns already this season. Hall is a big reason the Cyclones offensive attack is so balanced and they will give the UT defense trouble in this one. As for the Iowa State defense, they have held their last 5 opponents to an average of only 297 yards per game. Texas has been the SU winner in 7 of the last 8 meetings in Austin but there is a reason the line on this game is set the way it is. Though Iowa State did win against the Longhorns last season, they certainly have been reminded of how their last visit to Austin played out. Per our computer math model, all signs point to the Cyclones getting some payback here for an ugly performance in their most recent visit to UT. This one is set up for a big road win and Iowa State is the play here. |
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11-21-20 | Liberty v. NC State OVER 64.5 | Top | 14-15 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
#359/360 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER 64.5 Points – NC State vs Liberty, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - NC State is known to put up big points but they can't stop teams. That latter point is bad news for the Wolfpack as they now take on a red hot Liberty team that is 7-0 this season! The Flames are scoring 42.3 points per game on an average of 510 yards per contest! Liberty's offense is averaging 6.83 yards per play which ranks them in the top 20 teams in the nation this season for offensive efficiency out of more than 125 teams! NC State is allowing 456.5 yards per game and will struggle to stop an incredibly balanced Flames attack! Liberty is averaging 255 yards per game both rushing and passing! As for the Wolfback offense, they are averaging 38.8 points per game at home this season. Those 4 home games included facing two teams with winning records including a recent match-up with Miami (7-1 on the season). NC State scored 41 points against the Hurricanes! The Wolfpack are off an under (barely!) in their most recent game but that under was just their 2nd in 8 games this season! Additionally, the over is 6-1 in Liberty's 7 games this season! NC State is off of a game in which they surrendered only 22 points but that was against a Florida State team that has had major QB issues and is having a miserable season. Now the Wolfpack face Liberty QB Willis who has a TD-INT ratio of 15-1 plus has rushed for 700 yards this season too! That type of dual threat QB is going to give a bad defense like NC State's a lot of trouble. Taking a look at the Wolfpack offense again, they even slowed down last week because they had the game in hand (it was 28-3 in the 2nd quarter) but in this one a talented and confident Liberty team isn't going to wither away like the Seminoles did. That is why this one has the makings of a back and forth shootout as the Flames offense has helped lead the way to them becoming a ranked team this season! A lot of talent on that side of the ball for Liberty but now their defense will have its hands full with an equally talented NC State offense as both teams take advantage of beautiful weather conditions in this one too. The early forecast for Saturday night in Raleigh, NC is temperatures in the 50s with no precipitation and no wind either! Shootout in Raleigh! Per our computer math modeling, both teams are likely getting into upper-30's in this one and that means an easy OVER expected here! |
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11-21-20 | San Diego State -114 v. Nevada | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
#387 ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -115 over Nevada, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Most may look at this line and wonder why a 4-0 Nevada team is a home underdog in this game. We look at it and see line value with the road favorite. When these two met last year San Diego State was a 17 point favorite. Nevada pulled the huge upset in that game winning 17-13 despite getting outgained by nearly 100 yards. That loss has put a huge emphasis on this game for the Aztecs. Has Nevada improved that much where they go from a 17 point dog to just a 1.5 point dog? It may look that way with their 4-0 record but we don’t think so. The Wolfpack have played arguably the worst schedule in college football. Their last 3 games have come against UNLV, Utah State, and New Mexico, three teams we have power rated in the bottom 15 teams in the nation. Last week they barely squeaked by a New Mexico team that has won just 2 of their last 22 games. The yardage was basically even in that game yet the Lobos outrushed Nevada 141 to 52 in that 27-20 Wolfpack win. That simply emphasized Nevada’s struggles in the running game this year. Despite their easy schedule, they are averaging only 99 YPG on the ground. SDSU will have a HUGE advantage running the ball as they average 280 YPG rushing this season which is 4th nationally with Nebraska transfer Bell leading the way. The Nevada offense has solid numbers on the year but again, the last 3 defenses they’ve faced rank 122nd, 116th, and 107th nationally. San Diego State’s defense ranked 5th nationally last year and they are sitting at #3 in total defense so far this year. With Nevada unable to run the ball, they obviously put the ball in the air a lot. Their QB Strong averages 42 pass attempts per game. He may have a tough time in this game vs the Aztecs who rank 3rd nationally in pass defense this year. That includes holding a pass happy Hawaii team who ranks in the top 5 in passing yards this year to barely 200 yards in last week’s 34-10 SDSU win. The Aztecs have put massive pressure on opposing QB’s this year ranking 10th in the country in sack percentage and 11th in sacks per game. The Nevada offensive line is the weak point of this offense and they rank 107th in sacks allowed despite playing weak opponents. This will be, by far, the best defense and defensive front they’ve faced this season. Now we realize SDSU also played UNLV and Utah State this year but they’ve also faced a very solid San Jose State team and a decent Hawaii team. If we look at the 2 common opponents (UNLV & Utah St) the Aztecs outscored them 72-13 with a total yardage edge of +593 yards and a rushing edge of +511 yards. Nevada outscored those 2 opponents 71-28 with a total yardage edge of +481 and a rushing edge of just 33 yards. SDSU has simply been the much better program as of late with a 38-15 record over the last 4 years compared to Nevada’s 23-25 mark over the same period. We like the team that is stronger in the trenches, with the better defense, and the better running game to win this one. The motivated Aztecs get their revenge here. |
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ASA NCAA-F Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-26-21 | TCU v. Iowa State -14.5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
11-26-21 | Boise State -2.5 v. San Diego State | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 46 m | Show | |
11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii +2.5 | Top | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 37 h 27 m | Show |
11-20-21 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss UNDER 65 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
11-20-21 | UL-Lafayette v. Liberty UNDER 53.5 | 42-14 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 50 m | Show | |
11-20-21 | Minnesota -7 v. Indiana | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show | |
11-20-21 | Virginia v. Pittsburgh OVER 66 | 38-48 | Win | 100 | 30 h 25 m | Show | |
11-20-21 | Illinois +13 v. Iowa | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show | |
11-20-21 | Michigan State v. Ohio State OVER 68 | 7-56 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
11-16-21 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan OVER 66 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
11-13-21 | South Carolina v. Missouri OVER 54.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
11-13-21 | Minnesota +4.5 v. Iowa | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
11-13-21 | Georgia State +10.5 v. Coastal Carolina | 42-40 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
11-12-21 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
11-10-21 | Toledo v. Bowling Green UNDER 50 | Top | 49-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
11-06-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue +3 | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
11-06-21 | South Alabama v. Troy -3.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
11-06-21 | Navy +21 v. Notre Dame | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
11-06-21 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State OVER 68 | Top | 48-14 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
11-06-21 | Illinois v. Minnesota UNDER 44 | 14-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
10-30-21 | Ole Miss v. Auburn -2.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
10-30-21 | Georgia v. Florida UNDER 51 | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
10-30-21 | Washington State v. Arizona State -16 | 34-21 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
10-30-21 | Cincinnati -26.5 v. Tulane | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
10-30-21 | Iowa +3.5 v. Wisconsin | 7-27 | Loss | -116 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
10-23-21 | Temple +2.5 v. South Florida | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 34 m | Show | |
10-23-21 | UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 45-16 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
10-23-21 | Maryland +5 v. Minnesota | 16-34 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 14 m | Show | |
10-23-21 | Northwestern v. Michigan UNDER 51 | 7-33 | Win | 100 | 29 h 48 m | Show | |
10-22-21 | Colorado State v. Utah State OVER 58 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +5.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
10-16-21 | Kentucky v. Georgia -21.5 | 13-30 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
10-16-21 | Fresno State -3.5 v. Wyoming | 17-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
10-16-21 | Purdue +12 v. Iowa | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show | |
10-16-21 | Nebraska -3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
10-15-21 | Marshall v. North Texas UNDER 67 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
10-09-21 | Michigan v. Nebraska UNDER 50 | Top | 32-29 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
10-09-21 | San Jose State v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 14-32 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
10-09-21 | Michigan State v. Rutgers +5.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
10-09-21 | West Virginia +3 v. Baylor | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
10-09-21 | West Virginia v. Baylor UNDER 44.5 | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
10-08-21 | Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 17 m | Show |
10-02-21 | Kansas v. Iowa State OVER 56.5 | Top | 7-59 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
10-02-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
10-02-21 | Nevada +5 v. Boise State | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show | |
10-02-21 | Bowling Green v. Kent State -16 | 20-27 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
10-01-21 | Houston v. Tulsa -4.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 54 m | Show |
09-25-21 | Troy v. UL-Monroe UNDER 50.5 | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 35 h 42 m | Show | |
09-25-21 | Nebraska +5 v. Michigan State | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 34 h 37 m | Show | |
09-25-21 | Kansas State +6 v. Oklahoma State | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 34 m | Show | |
09-25-21 | Rutgers v. Michigan UNDER 50.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
09-25-21 | UTSA +3.5 v. Memphis | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | Top | 37-17 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
09-18-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis +3.5 | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 30 m | Show | |
09-18-21 | Florida State +5 v. Wake Forest | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 4 m | Show | |
09-18-21 | Kent State v. Iowa UNDER 56.5 | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
09-18-21 | Cincinnati -3.5 v. Indiana | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
09-17-21 | Maryland v. Illinois OVER 60.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -114 | 55 h 48 m | Show |
09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State -4 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 31 m | Show | |
09-11-21 | Miami-OH v. Minnesota OVER 53.5 | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show | |
09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss -9 | 24-43 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show | |
09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State OVER 55.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 35 h 56 m | Show |
09-04-21 | Utah State +17 v. Washington State | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
09-04-21 | Nevada v. California -3 | 22-17 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 22 m | Show | |
09-03-21 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 63 h 36 m | Show |
09-02-21 | East Carolina v. Appalachian State -10 | 19-33 | Win | 100 | 37 h 22 m | Show | |
09-02-21 | South Florida v. NC State -18 | Top | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 510 h 30 m | Show |
01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama UNDER 75 | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
01-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Georgia OVER 51 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
12-31-20 | Ball State v. San Jose State -9 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
12-30-20 | Wisconsin v. Wake Forest UNDER 52 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
12-29-20 | Colorado +8.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-55 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +1.5 | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
12-26-20 | Western Kentucky v. Georgia State -3.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
12-25-20 | Marshall v. Buffalo UNDER 55 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show |
12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston OVER 59.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
12-23-20 | Georgia Southern -6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada OVER 56.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State -21 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
12-19-20 | Stanford v. UCLA UNDER 59 | Top | 48-47 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
12-19-20 | Illinois v. Penn State -15 | Top | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
12-19-20 | Air Force -2.5 v. Army | 7-10 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
12-19-20 | Oklahoma -5.5 v. Iowa State | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
12-18-20 | Oregon +3.5 v. USC | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
12-12-20 | Stanford v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
12-12-20 | Central Michigan v. Toledo -11 | 23-24 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -12.5 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
12-05-20 | West Virginia +6.5 v. Iowa State | 6-42 | Loss | -104 | 22 h 57 m | Show | |
12-05-20 | Texas A&M v. Auburn +5.5 | 31-20 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 51 m | Show | |
12-03-20 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas -115 | Top | 42-31 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
11-28-20 | Rutgers v. Purdue -11 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
11-28-20 | Northwestern v. Michigan State +13.5 | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
11-27-20 | Iowa State +1.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
11-21-20 | Liberty v. NC State OVER 64.5 | Top | 14-15 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
11-21-20 | San Diego State -114 v. Nevada | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 18 m | Show |