Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-09-22 | Phillies v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Mariners offense has run dry lately but off their first victory in a while, I think we'll see a reversal of course here on Monday. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 9-0 with Seattle having scored two runs or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 11.0 runs in that situation. The Phillies meanwhile have seen the 'over' go a long-term 145-106 with an average total of 9.3 runs produced when coming off a loss against a division opponent in which they scored one run or less, which is also the situation here. Expect some offensive fireworks on Monday night in the Pacific Northwest. Take the over (4*). |
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05-09-22 | Rays v. Angels OVER 7.5 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Rays were involved in a low-scoring game in Seattle yesterday, eventually falling by a 2-1 score in extra innings. The Angels, meanwhile, staged a late rally to walk it off against the Nationals. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 9-0 with the Rays playing on the road following a game that totalled four runs or less over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of 10.4 runs. The Angels have seen the 'over' cash at a 35-22 clip when playing as a home favorite over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 9.8 runs. Better still, the 'over' is 37-23 with Los Angeles facing left-handed starting pitching over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 9.8 runs. The Halos are off to an incredible start against left-handers this season, averaging 5.5 runs per game with the 'over' going 4-3-1. Take the over (5*). |
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05-07-22 | Blue Jays v. Guardians UNDER 6.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Cleveland at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. The postponement of last night's game works in our favor as far as this play is concerned. Kevin Gausman had made his last two starts on just four days' rest and was slated to do so again last night. With that game being postponed, he'll now be able to pitch on a full five days' rest on Saturday. Note that the last time he pitched on at least five days' rest he turned in his best outing of the young season, allowing just one earned run over eight innings in Boston. In two previous road starts this season he has posted a 1.98 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. It's a similar story for Guardians ace Shane Bieber. He hasn't started a game since April 30th so I'm confident we'll see his best stuff here. In his lone previous home start he gave up only one earned run over six innings against the White Sox. He's made just one previous home start against the Blue Jays, allowing two earned runs over six innings back in 2019. The night off on Friday certainly helps an overworked Blue Jays bullpen that hadn't enjoyed a day off since April 18th. Note that the Jays relief corps has posted a collective 1.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Guardians bullpen owns a 2.36 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-22 | Cardinals v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday. We saw the Cardinals continue their offensive surge in last night's series opener here in San Francisco. The Giants didn't hold up their end of the bargain, however, plating just one run. They've run into some very tough pitching over the last few games but considering they did scratch out 10 hits (and leave 10 men on base) in last night's game, I do think a breakout performance is imminent. Note that the Cards have allowed double-digit hit totals in two of their last three games and I expect a similar outcome tonight. On the flip side, the Giants pitching staff has struggled lately and that's putting it mildly. They've allowed 22, 11, 12, 5, 11 and 12 hits over their last six games and now turn to a struggling Alex Cobb on Friday. Cobb turned in about as bad an outing as a pitcher can have at the big league level last time out, allowing five runs before exiting with only two outs in the first inning. While Cards starter Jordan Hicks has a promising future, he continues to only make brief appearances in a starting role. That leaves a Cards bullpen that has been anything but invincible, recording a 4.35 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over their last seven games. Expect plenty of offense in this game tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-02-22 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 7.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are in fine form at the dish right now, noting that the Twins have pounded out 14, 9, 5, 9, 11, 3, 14 and 13 hits over their last eight games while the Orioles have posted their two highest hit totals of the season in their last four games (14 and 13). Meanwhile, the O's have yet to go more than two games without recording an error this season, which is a streak they'll test tonight. Note that they're just three games removed from a five-error affair against the Yankees last week. The Twins have averaged 6.0 runs per game over the last week while the Orioles have averaged 4.7 runs per contest over that same stretch. While Baltimore's average doesn't appear overly impressive, it is certainly an improvement over its season scoring average of 3.2 runs per game. There's nothing special about the pitching matchup in this one while the potential is certainly there for late runs with the Orioles bullpen in particular struggling to the tune of a collective 5.83 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over their last seven games. Just two of six meetings between these two teams last season totalled fewer than nine runs. Take the over (5*). |
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05-01-22 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This has been an extremely high-scoring series so far with the first two games producing a whopping 30 runs. I expect more of the same on Sunday. The Nationals bats have come to life, pounding out 33 hits in the last two games. They're now averaging 5.9 runs per game on just shy of .300 hitting on the road this season. The Giants are averaging just under five runs per game at home. They've recorded double-digit hit totals in five of their last eight games overall. An often overlooked aspect of the game when it comes to playing MLB totals is defense. Both of these teams have struggled in that realm lately with the Nats' committing nine errors in their last five games including three last night and the Giants recording at least one error in seven consecutive games. There's nothing special about today's starting pitching matchup and we also have a good chance for some late scoring noting that the Nats' bullpen has posted an ugly 5.97 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings of work away from home and the Giants 'pen having recorded a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 41 innings pitched at home. Take the over (6*). |
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05-01-22 | Mariners v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 7-3 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Miami at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. We saw a return to business as usual for the Marlins yesterday as they prevailed in another low-scoring affair. I expect more of the same on Sunday. Mariners starter Logan Gilbert has quietly been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball through the first month of the season. He checks in sporting a 0.40 ERA and 0.85 WHIP through his first four starts, striking out 22 and walking only four in 22 1/3 innings along the way. For the Marlins, Sandy Alcantara has been terrific as well. He has recorded a 1.26 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings pitched at home this season. Both bullpens have been reliable as well with the Mariners 'pen having recorded a 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the road and the Marlins relief corps posting a 2.87 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home. In fact, Miami has already recorded nine saves while blowing just one. Take the under (6*). |
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04-29-22 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 7 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Friday. The Padres are a terrific 'over' play right now for a few reasons. First and foremost, they're locked in at the plate, knocking out 8, 12, 8 and 11 hits over their last four games. But they're also giving up their share, with the opposition collecting 8, 8, 10 and 8 hits over that stretch. Finally, they're playing awful defensive. They've managed to rack up a whopping nine errors over their last four games. Here, they'll face a reeling Pirates squad that is also playing poor defense at the moment, with seven errors over their last five contests. The Buccos aren't hitting as well as the Padres right now, but they are just two games removed from a 13-hit, 8-run barrage against the Brewers. On the flip side, Pittsburgh has yielded its opponents 23, 10, 14, 4 and 9 hits over its last five games. Take the over (10*). |
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04-26-22 | Guardians v. Angels OVER 8 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. Off a 3-0 shutout loss to open this series last night I look for the Guardians bats to finally wake from their slumber against Patrick Sandoval and the Angels pitching staff on Tuesday. With that being said, I'm not convinced Cleveland can keep the Los Angeles bats at bay. Triston McKenzie will get the nod for the Guardians. He has yet to last five innings in a start this season, which isn't out of the ordinary as he generally puts a lot of runners on base due to his inconsistent command. McKenzie walked four over 4 1/3 innings against the White Sox last week. Behind McKenzie is a Guardians bullpen that has posted a 4.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a pair of blown saves (and none converted) on the road this season. As I mentioned, Patrick Sandoval will start for Los Angeles. Like McKenzie, he also likes to put runners on base, or has a tendency to do so anyway, allowing seven hits while handing out five free passes in only eight innings pitched so far this season. Despite their recent struggles at the dish, the Guardians are still averaging 5.2 runs per game and hitting .261 as a team on the road this season. They faced Sandoval once last season, scoring two earned runs in four innings in a game that totalled 11 runs. Behind Sandoval is an Angels bullpen that much like last year, has struggled here at home, posting a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with three saves converted and three blown. Take the over (7*). |
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04-22-22 | Rangers v. A's OVER 7.5 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Rangers offense hasn't exactly lived up to its lofty expectations so far this season but we saw signs of a breakout last night as they produced eight runs, rallying from a 5-0 deficit to win 8-6 in Seattle. I'm confident they can build on that performance against A's starter Adam Oller, who has allowed seven earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work this season, not to mention an A's bullpen that has yet to enjoy an off day this season. On the flip side, I'm not counting on Rangers starter Glenn Otto to shut down the A's offense. He checks in having allowed seven earned runs through his first two starts this season, spanning seven innings. The Rangers bullpen, meanwhile, started bad and has only gotten worse, posting a 5.65 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over its last seven games. Take the over (5*). |
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04-22-22 | Royals v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a high-scoring affair in Seattle last night as the Mariners fell by an 8-6 score against Texas. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Friday as Seattle hosts Kansas City. The Royals have scored four runs or less in six straight games and have produced a grand total of six runs in each of their last two three-game series'. They'll likely have their hands full with Mariners starter Chris Flexen tonight. He's struggled through his first two outings this season but I see this as an ideal bounce-back spot as he faces a Royals club he held to just one earned run over 5 2/3 innings against last September. Behind Flexen is a Mariners bullpen that has been lights out for the most part this season, checking in having posted a 1.61 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over its last seven contests. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. He's been dealing out of the gate this season, working at least six innings in each of his first two starts, giving up just two earned runs in 13 innings. While the Royals bullpen got off to a bit of a rocky start this season, it has since turned it around, recording a collective 0.69 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over its last seven games. Take the under (4*). |
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04-21-22 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Division F5 Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Texas and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This has been a fairly low-scoring series through the first two games with Seattle inflicting most of the damage offensively (it has scored 10 of the 14 runs in the series). Here, I'm looking for another low-scoring start. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Rangers bullpen that has been awful in the early going this season (5.43 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 54 2/3 IP). Rangers starter Taylor Hearn has been average at best through two starts, which is about all that Texas can really expect from the back-of-the-rotation starter. With that being said, I'm confident he can hold the Mariners average offense in check here, noting that he faced them twice last season, allowing only two earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. Marco Gonzalez will counter for Seattle. He'll have the benefit of facing a Rangers lineup that while explosive on paper, has yet to wake from its early season slumber (Texas has scored nine runs over its last four games combined). Gonzalez is coming off a scintillating seven-inning performance against the Astros and checks in having allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts against Texas, spanning 20 1/3 innings of work. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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04-21-22 | Giants v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and New York at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I'm not expecting much in the way of offense on 'getaway day' in Queens on Thursday afternoon. After a relatively high-scoring opener reached nine total runs in this series, we've seen the last two games total a combined 11 runs. I like the starting pitching matchup here with Anthony DeSclafani going for the Giants against Cookie Carrasco of the Mets. DeSclafani is off to an unimpressive start with an ERA north of four and a WHIP approaching 1.70 through two outings. I expect him to turn it around here, however, noting that he has posted a solid 9:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 8 2/3 innings. It's not as if the Mets are tearing the cover off the ball, hitting a collective .247 here at home this season. Cookie Carrasco has allowed just five hits and one earned run over 10 2/3 innings to open the campaign. Like DeSclafani, he faces a favorable matchup here with the Giants hitting just .208 as a team on the road this season. Both bullpens are reliable to say the least. The San Francisco bullpen has posted a collective 1.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while the Mets 'pen has recorded a 3.28 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Take the under (6*). |
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04-20-22 | Twins v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams to open this series last night as the Royals pulled out a 4-3 victory. With the 'under' having gone 3-1 in the Twins last four games and a perfect 4-0 in the Royals last four contests we're being afforded a reasonably low total to work with here - too low in my opinion. There's a reason the Padres were willing to cut Chris Paddack loose, shipping him to Minnesota at the start of the season. He struggled in his Twins debut, allowing three earned runs on six hits over just four innings against the Dodgers last week. I'm not convinced he'll fare any better here. Behind Paddack is a struggling Minnesota bullpen that has posted a collective 5.28 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 46 innings of work this season. It's a similar story for the Royals 'pen, as it has recorded a 4.69 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 38 1/3 innings pitched. That Kansas City bullpen could get put to work early in this one as starter Daniel Lynch has worked more than five innings just twice in his last eight starts going back to last season. Lynch labored through his first start this season, allowing six earned runs on nine hits, including three home runs, in five innings against the Cardinals. It's been a case of 'feast-or-famine' for both offenses in the early going this season but I expect both to feast on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-20-22 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 1-5 | Win | 105 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night and I expect a similar story to unfold in Wednesday's series finale. Charlie Morton will take the ball for the Braves. He is coming off a poor outing against the Padres but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Morton has posted a 29% hard-hit ball percentage - nearly 10% lower than the MLB average while his K, HR and BB rates have all been in line with his career averages through his first two starts, spanning 10 1/3 innings this season. Behind Morton is a Braves bullpen that has held up well in the early going this season, recording a 3.81 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with five saves converted and none blown. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 22-10 with the Braves playing on the road after losing two of their last three games going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 8.1 runs. The 'under' is also 31-19 with Atlanta playing on the road with the total set between 7.0 and 8.5 over the same stretch, leading to an average total of just 7.7 runs. The Dodgers will turn to Tony Gonsolin who is likely to only work a few innings here. Gonsolin always seems to be serviceable for the Dodgers and his first two outings this season have been no different as he has allowed just one earned run in seven innings. Of course, the Los Angeles relief corps has been terrific so far this season, posting a 2.00 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 45 collective innings of work. Take the under (6*). |
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04-19-22 | Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring games. In the case of the Marlins, they're fresh off three consecutive 'over' results. I expect a different story to unfold here, however. Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright didn't pitch well last time out. We know he can still pitch though, noting that he tossed six shutout innings against the Pirates in his first outing this season. He posted a 3.05 ERA (his lowest season-long ERA since 2015) and a 1.06 WHIP last year. Jesus Luzardo had a scintillating Marlins debut last week, striking out 12 over five innings of one-run ball against the Angels. While he isn't likely to duplicate that effort here, I still expect him to pitch well against a Cardinals team that has hit a collective .235 on the road so far this season (limited sample size, I know). Going back to the end of last season, Luzardo has allowed just four earned runs while striking out 28 and walking just three in his last 14 1/3 innings of work. While he's certainly gone through some rough times on the mound in recent years, remember he finished top-eight in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting as a member of the A's just two years ago. Both bullpens have been solid in the early going this season with the Cards 'pen posting a 2.14 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and the Marlins relief corps recording a collective 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Both 'pens have worked 35 or less innings so far this season and both come off an off day on Monday so it should be all hands on deck here. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Cardinals coming off a one-run loss going back to last season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 6.3 runs. The 'under' is also 23-11 with the Marlins playing at home after winning two of their last three games over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 7.2 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-22 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Pirates posted an 'under' result. I look for that to change on Monday, however, as the Buccos head to Milwaukee to face the Brewers. I would consider both of tonight's starters underrated in some sense. Zach Thompson was effective over four innings in his first start with the Pirates (he came over from Miami in the offseason). Thompson quietly posted a 3.24 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 75 innings pitched with the Marlins last season. For his career he has posted a 34.5% hard-hit ball percentage, nearly 4.5% below the MLB average over that period. Behind Thompson is a Pirates bullpen that has been terrific in the early going this season, posting a collective 2.98 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 42 1/3 innings. Brewers starter Eric Lauer didn't have his best stuff in his season debut but still hung in there, allowing three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Orioles. I expect him to fare better in his first home start of the season, noting that he faced the Pirates once here last season, tossing five shutout innings. He owns a career 2.63 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in seven career starts against Pittsburgh. Like the Pirates, the Brewers have been solid out of the bullpen, recording a collective 3.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. As a team, the Brewers are still hitting just .212 and averaging 3.1 runs per game on the season. The Pirates, meanwhile, check in hitting .266 as a team while averaging 4.4 runs per game but figure to suffer some regression in this, just their second 'away' series. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
First Five Innings Total of the Week. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We've seen these two teams take turns beating up on each other in the first two games of this series with the Brewers taking the opener 5-1 before the Cardinals answered back with a 10-1 victory last night. Here, I look for both teams to show up offensively, particularly early in the game. We'll play the first five innings only as both bullpens have been solid in the early going this season and we'll look to avoid them here. The starters on the other hand were not good in their respective season debuts. Steven Matz made his first start as a Cardinal and proceeded to get smashed for nine hits and seven earned runs in just three innings against the Pirates. Adrian Houser couldn't make it through the fourth inning against the Orioles. Both starters will settle down a little bit here, but I'm not convinced they have any sort of advantage against the opposing hitters here. Expect early fireworks. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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04-16-22 | Braves v. Padres OVER 8.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. Both lineups are set up favorably against the starting pitchers in this, the third game of the series between the Braves and Padres on Saturday afternoon. While Braves starter Ian Anderson struggled in his season debut, giving up five earned runs in 2 2/3 innings, Padres starter Nick Martinez actually fared well, giving up just a single earned run over five frames. Both bullpens have been shaky at best with the Braves relief corps posting a 4.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and the Padres 'pen recording a 5.17 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. We know the talent level up and down both lineups and off last night's relatively low-scoring affair (seven total runs), I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Saturday. Take the over (6*). |
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04-15-22 | Rays v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The White Sox could muster only one run in yesterday's wind-swept 5-1 loss against Seattle and that came only thanks to those blustery winds that led to a couple of Mariners' fielding gaffes. Here, I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair as the Rays roll into the Windy City to face the White Sox on Friday. Both of tonight's starters were effective in their season debuts with Drew Rasmussen working four innings in a 5-3 Rays win over Baltimore and Dylan Cease tossing five frames in a 5-2 White Sox victory over Detroit. I expect more of the same here, perhaps with the two bullpens - which have both been solid in the early going - doing some heavy lifting. The Tampa Bay 'pen has posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through a whopping 40 2/3 innings so far this season while the White Sox relief corps has recorded a 3.14 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 28 2/3 innings. On another rather unfriendly hitting night at Guaranteed Rate Field, I expect runs to come at a premium. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-22 | A's v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Oakland and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We'll back the 'over' in the first five innings only in this one as we look to avoid the two bullpens, which have been effective in the early going this season. We have a low-rate starting pitching matchup here with Daulton Jefferies making just his fourth big league start against back of the rotation veteran Ross Stripling. With the two offenses coming in hot I'm confident both can produce in the early going in this one. While it's still very early, I do think the betting markets were a little lower than they should have been on the A's coming out of the gate. Of course, consecutive losses to open the campaign only bolstered that notion. Since then, the A's have gone 4-1, scoring 6+ runs in three of those five contests. Meanwhile, the Jays are coming off a tough series in the Bronx, in unfriendly early season hitting conditions. They'll be more than happy to return to the hitter-friendly confines of the Rogers Centre, where they put up 20 runs in a three-game series against the Rangers last weekend. Take the first five innings over (6*). |
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04-15-22 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Washington and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Friday. We won with this same play last night and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well on Friday. The Nats put up three first inning runs but could only muster one additional run the rest of the way in last night's 9-4 loss. The Pirates are hitting well right now having scored 15 runs over their last two games and they catch another favorable matchup against Nationals starter Erick Fedde on Friday. Of course, Washington is also well-positioned to do some damage against Buccos starter Mitch Keller, who is in line for a bounce-back season but certainly didn't show signs of any sort of turn-around in his season debut, allowing four earned runs over just four innings against the Cardinals. The Nats have hit .273 as a team and averaged 5.5 runs per game in their first four road games this season. Also note that the 'over' is now 27-11 when Washington plays on the road with the total set at 9.0 or 9.5 over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here. By playing the first five innings only, we look to avoid a Pirates bullpen that has been lights out in the early going this season, posting a 2.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Take the first five innings over (4*). |
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04-15-22 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Boston at 2:10 pm et on Friday. The Red Sox offense was held down for the most part through the first four games this season but you can only hold them down for so long and the Tigers found that out over the last couple of games as Boston produced 14 runs in securing consecutive victories. Here, with favorable hitting conditions at Fenway Park, I'm expecting plenty of offense from both teams. The Twins could manage only two runs in a brief two-game Interleague series against the Dodgers earlier this week. Like the Red Sox, they have an explosive lineup and I'm confident we'll see them bounce back here. Note that the 'over' has gone 46-27 with Minnesota coming off four or five losses in its last six games going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 10.3 runs in that spot. Better still, the 'over' is 11-2 with the Twins playing on the road after scoring three runs or less in consecutive games over the same time frame, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 12.9 runs. There's nothing special about today's pitching matchup with Joe Ryan and Nick Pivetta getting their second turns in the rotation this season. Both struggled in their season debuts. We've also seen the Twins bullpen have a tough time, posting a 3.95 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through 27 1/3 innings this season. The Red Sox bullpen showed some warts in its most recent game after cruising early on. Take the over (6*). |
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04-14-22 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 9 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Washington and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Thursday. The Pirates bats are hot off a big day at the plate against the Cubs yesterday. They've scored 6+ runs in two of their last three games and I'm confident they can find continued success early in this one as they go up against Nationals starter Joan Adon, who will be making just his third big league start. Despite recording 12 strikeouts in just 9 2/3 innings, Adon has allowed 10 hits and seven walks, not to mention six earned runs along the way. Washington scored 18 runs and hit .280 as a team in its three-game series in Atlanta. The Nats might be catching Pirates starter J.T. Brubaker at the right time as he was mediocre at best in the Spring and struggled mightily in his first regular season start, yielding four earned runs on four hits and three walks over just four innings against the Cardinals. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Pirates bullpen that has been terrific in the early going, posting a collective 3.57 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 22 2/3 innings of work. Take the first five innings over (6*). |
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04-12-22 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 10 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Somewhat surprisingly, the Rockies have seen just one of their first four games go 'over' the total this season. With that being said, after their first two contests reached just eight and five total runs, their last two have gotten to 13 and 10. Yesterday's series-opener here in Texas probably should have gone 'over' the total in extras were it not for a controversial call to end the game. Regardless, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair on Tuesday. The Rockies brought tonight's starting pitcher, Chad Kuhl, over from Pittsburgh in the offseason. He wasn't great with the Pirates and certainly didn't look good in two Spring Training starts with the Rockies, allowing 12 hits and eight earned runs while recording a 4:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 5 1/3 innings. We know how explosive the Rangers offense can be as we've already seen them score 8+ runs in two of four games this season. The Rangers will hand the ball to veteran Martin Perez. He was relegated to bullpen duty after struggling as a starter with the Red Sox last season. He'll have his hands full in his first start back with the Rangers (where he started his career) as the Rockies check in hitting .307 as a team and averaging 7.5 runs per game in two previous games against left-handed starting pitching this season. With Perez an unlikely candidate to work deep into this game, that opens the door for a struggling Rangers bullpen that has posted a collective 4.74 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, having allowed four home runs in just 19 innings so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-10-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Arizona at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in this matchup last night as the Padres won by a 5-2 score, staying 'under' the total by a couple of runs. We're actually dealing with a lower posted total on Sunday (at the time of writing) and I believe it will prove too low. Blake Snell made just two Spring Training starts for San Diego. In one of those outings he struggled with his command, issuing four walks in just 1 1/3 innings. In the other he gave up five hits and three earned runs over four innings of work. The D'Backs bats have been quiet in this series so far but I do think the potential is there for them to bust out on Sunday. The Padres lineup is of course loaded and we saw flashes of that last night, particularly in the latter stages of the game. Caleb Smith gets the nod for Arizona, having labored through his only two full big league seasons, posting a 4.52 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 2019 with the Marlins and a 4.83 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with the Snakes last season. He recorded a 4.0% home run rate and a 12.6% walk rate last season, both well north of MLB averages. His 35.6% fly ball rate last season was also considerably higher than the MLB average and certainly doesn't suit him well pitching at hitter-friendly Chase Field. Take the over (6*). |
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04-09-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The bats have been quiet through the first two games of this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Note that the 'over' is 21-7 with the D'Backs coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last season plus, resulting in an average total of 10.7 runs. Better still, the 'over' is a long-term 26-9 with Arizona playing at home off a shutout loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 11.5 runs in that spot. The Padres check in averaging 5.1 runs per game as a road favorite over the last 2+ seasons (69-game sample size). Unfortunately for the D'Backs, they've allowed an ugly 6.2 runs per game after scoring one run or less in their most recent game going back to last season (30-game sample size), which is also the case here. While Joe Musgrove and Zach Davies are serviceable, nothing about either starter really jumps off the page. Expect plenty of offense in this one. Take the over (6*). |
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04-08-22 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. We saw a low-scoring result in the opener of this series last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Friday. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-10 with the Astros coming off a game in which they allowed one run or less going back to last season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 10.2 runs. The 'over' is also 17-7 in Houston's last 24 games as a road underdog, leading to an average total of 10.6 runs in that situation. There's nothing special about tonight's starting pitching matchup as the Astros send veteran Jake Odorizzi to the hill against Reid Detmers of the Angels. Odorizzi's strikeout rate was down while his home run rate was up last year compared to his previous two full seasons in 2018 and 2019 (he pitched only 13 2/3 innings in a Covid-shortened 2020 campaign). While Detmers has proven to be an excellent strikeout pitcher at the minor league level, he's yet to prove it in the bigs, posting an ERA north of seven in limited work (around 20 innings) last season. He did pitch well in one start against Houston last year, but I look for the Astros to fare better in their second look at the left-hander. Take the over (10*). |
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04-08-22 | Mariners v. Twins OVER 8 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Minnesota at 4:10 pm et on Friday. I like the upside potential of both of these offenses heading into the new season and while we do have a tricky Opening Day starting pitching matchup to deal with, I believe the posted total will prove too low on Friday afternoon. Robbie Ray comes over to the Mariners from the Blue Jays following an incredible 2021 campaign. While Ray posted terrific numbers last season a closer look does indicate at least some reason for concern. He's certainly in line for some regression after posting the second highest strikeout rate over the course of his entire career. When opposing hitters did make contact, they hit Ray hard, as he posted a 43.3% hard-hit ball percentage - nearly 5% higher than the MLB average. That's not to mention a 29.4% fly ball percentage - exactly 5% north of the MLB average. I'm high on the Twins offense and do expect them to get to Ray on Friday. Twins starter Joe Ryan saw only limited big league action last season. With that being said, he did record an ugly 43.1% fly ball percentage and 4% home run rate in 26 2/3 innings - both well north of the MLB averages. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 31-17 with the Mariners playing on the road with a posted total between 7.0 and 8.5 runs going back to last season with that spot producing an average total of 9.6 runs. For their part, the Twins have posted a 37-21 o/u mark in all games where the total closed between 7.0 and 8.5 going back to the start of last season, good for an average total of 9.7 runs scored in that situation. Take the over (7*). |
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04-07-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this total sets up on Thursday night at Chase Field. The Padres lineup, even without Fernando Tatis Jr., is still absolutely loaded with run-scoring potential. Tonight they'll get the opportunity to tee off on veteran left-hander Madison Bumgarner. After a pair of shaky starts to open the Spring, MadBum settled down to toss five innings of shutout ball in his final outing. He of course was serviceable for the Snakes last season, logging 140+ innings while posting a respectable 1.18 WHIP. However, his line drive and fly ball percentages were well above the MLB average to go along with a career low 33% ground ball percentage. The Padres have favorable matchups against Bumgarner up and down their lineup in this one. Yu Darvish will counter for San Diego. His strikeout rate was down and walk rate and home run rate were both up last season. He pitched reasonably well in three Spring outings but now takes on what I consider to be a D'Backs lineup with lots of potential in a hitter-friendly park in Arizona to open the campaign. The Snakes have a number of hitters coming off impressive Spring showings and I look for some carry-over effect here. Finally, remember there are no more pitchers hitting to worry about in National League play this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Atlanta at 8:05 pm et on Friday. This hasn't been a particularly high-scoring series through two games but that's only served to afford us a reasonable total to work with as the scene shifts to Atlanta for Game 3 on Friday night. Note that the 'over' is 17-5 in Houston's last 22 games as a road underdog, resulting in an average total of 11.2 runs scored. In fact, you would have to go back to August 3rd to find the last time an Astros road game in which they were an underdog finished 'under' the total. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Braves have played at home off consecutive 'under' results (you have to go back four games to find their last 'over' result as Game 2 of this series settled on a 'push'), good for an average total of 10.4 runs in that spot. Astros starter Luis Garcia hasn't been nearly as effective on the road as at home this season, posting a 4.67 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He's coming off his best start of the postseason as he tossed 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball against the Red Sox in the ALCS, but that was at home. Braves starter Ian Anderson hasn't worked more than five innings in any of his three previous starts in these playoffs. He's been good, but certainly not great and here we'll note that he has made three starts against American League opponents this season and hasn't fared well, recording a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Note that the Braves have given Anderson a whopping 6.7 runs per start of support here at home this season. The Astros bullpen has not been all that reliable on the road this season, posting a collective 4.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with only 19 saves converted compared to 17 blown. Meanwhile, the Braves 'pen has recorded a 4.02 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 20 saves converted and 14 blown at home. Against American League foes, the Braves relief corps has posted an ugly 5.84 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with only three saves converted and six blown. Take the over (10*). |
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10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 34 h 7 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Atlanta and Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. NOTE: There's a discrepancy in first five innings totals being offered at a variety of books in advance of this one. I'm fine with playing the 'over' as high as 4.5 runs. Both of these teams closed out their respective LCS' with relatively low-scoring games but that hasn't been the norm during these playoffs. The Braves enter this series having seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five games. The Astros have seen the 'over' cash in eight of their last nine and 11 of their last 13 contests. Here, rather than play the full game 'over' the total we'll stick with the first five innings only. Charlie Morton gets the call for the Braves. The veteran right-hander's best start of the playoffs to date was his first, back in the NLDS against Milwaukee. In two starts since then he has allowed seven hits, seven walks and four earned runs in only 8 1/3 innings, striking out 10 along the way. Keep in mind, he struck out nine in his first start of the postseason. He didn't look confident in his command in his lone start against the Dodgers and now faces an even tougher opponent with the Astros entering this series hitting .287 as a team and averaging 6.6 runs per game over their last seven contests. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. As we predicted in our play on the 'under' (which we lost thanks to a late explosion from the Astros offense) in his most recent start, Valdez matched up well against the Red Sox, and at Fenway Park in particular. Here, I'm not sure he'll be so fortunate. Note that Valdez owns a 1.48 WHIP in 13 home starts this season with nine of those going 'over' the total. In his two previous playoff starts here at home he was tagged for six earned runs on 13 hits in only seven innings of work. By playing the first five innings only we'll aim to avoid two bullpens that have been admittedly sharp. Between the two 'pens, we've seen just one blown save in these playoffs with the Braves relief corps having posted a 3.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP and the Astros checking in with a 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 2-11 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Much like the ALCS, the 'over' has ruled the NLCS, cashing in each of the last three games. I look for that trend to reverse on Thursday, however, as the Braves send Max Fried to the hill in hopes of closing out this series. Fried has of course been outstanding this season, and particularly in the playoffs, recording a 1.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in two postseason starts. He has incredibly worked at least six innings in 14 consecutive starts, allowing more than two earned runs only twice over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 with Fried taking the hill as an underdog priced between +100 and +150, resulting in an average total of only 4.5 runs. Also note that the 'under' has gone 10-2 with the Braves playing on the road after putting up nine runs or more in their previous contest, with an average total of just 5.5 runs scored. The Dodgers have yet to decide on a starter but we do know this is likely to be a 'bullpen game' for them. Despite trailing in this series, the Dodgers 'pen has held up well recently, recording a collective 3.03 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the under (5*). |
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10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 9-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in last night's Game 3 matchup - in fact, we've won with the 'over' twice already in this series. With each of the last five meetings between these two teams going 'over' the total and both teams entering on six-game 'over' streaks, it's no surprise that we're working with a double-digit total tonight. I believe it will prove too high. Note that the 'under' has gone 19-8 with the Astros playing on the road after losing two of their last three games this season, as is the case here, producing an average total of 8.2 runs. Houston is averaging just 4.0 runs with an average total of 8.2 runs in 27 previous situations where it was coming off a loss by four runs or more this season. The presence of struggling veteran Zack Greinke for the Astros is of course a concern. One thing he doesn't lack at this stage of his career is command, and it's worth noting that he has posted a better-than-MLB average hard-hit ball percentage and exit velocity off opposing bats this season. Nick Pivetta stepped into a pressure-packed situation against the Rays in the ALDS and tossed four shutout innings in his most recent appearance for the Red Sox. His overall numbers aren't great this season but I do think he can keep the Astros bats at bay in this one as Houston faces a lot of pressure down 2-1 in this series. Take the under (6*). |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
ALCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams enter Game 3 of the ALCS riding five-game 'over' streaks and I don't believe those streaks are in jeopardy of ending here. Jose Uquidy will get his first start of the postseason for the Astros. While his overall numbers this season are solid, here he runs into a red hot Red Sox lineup, noting that he hasn't really been fooling anyone, topping out at six strikeouts in his last nine starts. I'll also point out that the 'over' has gone 12-4 when Urquidy starts with a posted total of between 8.5 and 10.0 runs, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 11.1 runs scored. Eduardo Rodriguez made two starts for the Red Sox in the ALDS but wasn't particularly sharp, allowing four earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. The Astros faced him twice during the regular season, plating 12 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings. You would have to go back six home starts - all the way to August 15th - to find the last time Rodriguez was involved in a game at Fenway Park that didn't reach at least nine total runs. He never looked all that comfortable pitching at home this season, posting a 5.78 ERA and 1.37 WHIP while averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start. Neither bullpen is all that imposing. The Astros 'pen has converted just 19 saves while blowing 17 on the road this season. The Sox 'pen hasn't been much better at home, converting 21 saves while blowing 15. Note that the Boston relief corps has yet to convert a save in the playoffs while blowing three. Take the over (10*). |
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10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Houston at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We saw a classic pitching duel between the Dodgers and Giants last night but I expect nothing of the sort as the Red Sox and Astros open the ALCS on Friday. Chris Sale certainly isn't the same pitcher he once was and isn't likely to work deep into the game for Boston in the series-opener. He was chased after allowing five earned runs in just an inning of work against Tampa Bay last round. His 10 starts this season have totaled 18, 6, 14, 5, 21, 8, 17, 6, 12 and 20 runs...you get the picture. Astros starter Framber Valdez faced the Red Sox twice during the regular season with those two outings coming over a six-day stretch in early June. Boston wasn't hitting very well at all at that stage of the season. It's a different story now as it enters this series having scored 26 runs in its last three games. Valdez has made six starts since the beginning of September with those games totaling 12, 15, 10, 3, 14 and 13 runs. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-8 with the Astros coming off a game in which they allowed one run or less this season, producing an average total of 10.5 runs in that situation. Take the over (6*). |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 6.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 33 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Game 4 of this series on Tuesday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Thursday's fifth-and-deciding game between these storied rivals. The last time the Giants sent Logan Webb to the hill was in the opener of this series. They could have scored a single run and won that game as Webb was outstanding, working into the eighth inning in an eventual 4-0 victory. Here, I expect the Dodgers to have an answer with Julio Urias on the mound. Note that the 'over' has gone 15-5 with Urias coming off a start in which he allowed one earned run or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 10.3 runs. The 'over' has also gone a solid 22-9 with the Dodgers playing in a game where the total was set at 7.0 runs or less over the last three seasons, good for an average total of 8.4 runs scored. Meanwhile, the Giants have averaged 6.3 runs per game when Logan Webb comes off a start in which he gave up one earned run or less this season, resulting in an average total of 8.8 runs. Note also that the Dodgers are averaging 5.2 runs per game but also allowing 4.4 runs per game when playing on the road off a win by four runs or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here following Tuesday's 7-2 victory at Chavez Ravine. Finally I'll point out that both of Thursday's starters are riding career-long stretches of starts without allowing a single home run. We'll call for regression to the mean in that department here. Take the over (7*). |
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10-12-21 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NLDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the Giants coming off a 1-0 victory last night, pushing the Dodgers to the brink of elimination in the process, I like the way Game 4 sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone 15-4 with the Giants coming off an underdog win over a division opponent this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of 10.7 runs. The 'over' also checks 38-22 with San Francisco coming off a game in which it gave up one run or less over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 10.5 runs. The Dodgers, meanwhile, check in averaging 5.9 runs per game when coming off a loss against a division opponent in a game in which they were favored this season. That situation has produced an average total of 9.9 runs. They also average 5.5 runs per game when playing at home after being involved in a game that saw both teams score three runs or less, good for an average total of 8.4 runs. Neither of tonight's starters are all that imposing. For San Francisco's part, it averages 5.5 runs per game after scoring two runs or less in consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here as well. The Dodgers will be getting their seventh look at Anthony DeSclafani this season. They tagged him for 22 earned runs in 27 innings during the regular season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have yet to announce their starter but we can assume it will be 'all hands on deck' in this elimination game. Take the over (10*). |
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10-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Boston at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a whopping 20 runs scored in Game 2 of this series on Friday and I expect to see plenty of offense again in Game 3 on Sunday. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-13 with the Rays playing on the road against division opponents this season with those games averaging 11.3 total runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 16-5 after the Red Sox score 10 runs or more in a game over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 11.5 runs scored. Drew Rasmussen will get the start for the Rays. He'll inexplicably be facing the Red Sox for the fourth time this season. While he's pitched well against them, you have to wonder if at some point Boston begins to figure him out. Note that he has posted an awful 50.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season. With Rasmussen averaging just over four innings per start we should see plenty of a Rays bullpen that owns a collective 4.29 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the road this season. Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi has arguably been the team's most reliable starter this season. However, here he'll be facing the Rays for the fifth time this season. Note that his previous four starts against them have totaled 11, 14, 28 and 3 runs. The Red Sox bullpen has recorded a collective 4.26 ERA and 1.38 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Most will be anticipating a high-scoring affair between these two homer-happy rivals at hitter-friendly Fenway Park on Tuesday night. I don't see it playing out that way, however. Tonight's starters Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi actually just matched up on September 24th. That game finished 8-3 in favor of New York. The stakes are obviously even higher now with this being a 'win or go home' Wild Card showdown and I expect a more tightly-contested affair. Cole struggled down the stretch but this will be the first time he's had the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest since September 14th against Baltimore. He gave up just one earned run in five innings in that start. Likewise for Eovaldi. He, however, pitched well in his most recent start, tossing six shutout innings against the Orioles. He checks in sporting a 1.11 WHIP in 19 home starts this season. It will obviously be 'all hands on deck' when it comes to the two bullpens following yesterday's off-day. In fact, both teams have had three off days since September 23rd, setting them up well for Tuesday's all-important contest. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-21 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
MLB F5 Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Miami and New York at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of relatively low-scoring seven-innings affairs between these two teams simply playing out the string yesterday. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, at least early on. Elieser Hernandez gets another start for the Marlins. He was tagged for three home runs in his most recent start and a pair of home runs the last time he faced the Mets. I suspect we'll see him nibbling the edges a little too much in this one and perhaps struggle to avoid walks, which have plagued him recently (seven walks in his last two starts spanning just 9 2/3 innings). Hernandez checks in with a 1.81 WHIP over his last three outings. Taijuan Walker will take the ball for New York. The wheels have come off for him down the stretch. He checks in having allowed 19 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a stretch of 17 1/3 innings. Like Hernandez, Walker has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing a whopping eight home runs over his last four outings and at least one home run in 10 of his last 11 starts. We'll play the first five innings only here, noting that the Mets bullpen in particular has been terrific lately, entering yesterday's double-header sporting a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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09-25-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 10.5 | 8-5 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. We saw a pair of wild, high-scoring games in yesterday's seven-inning double-header but I expect a different story to unfold on Wrigley Field on Saturday. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 14-0 when the Cardinals come off a game in which they scored 12 or more runs over the last three seasons with those games producing an average total of just 5.4 runs. St. Louis averages just 2.6 runs per game when coming off a win by eight runs over more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 7.1 runs. As for the Cubs, they average only 3.8 runs per game when playing at home with double-revenge this season, as is the case here. Jon Lester has arguably been the Cards most consistent starter lately, checking in with a 2.84 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over his last three starts. For his part, Cubs starter Adrian Sampson has posted a respectable 3.21 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over his last three outings. The Cards bullpen continues to pitch well, recording a collective 1.12 WHIP over their last seven games. While the Cubs 'pen has struggled for the most part this season, it has managed to post a 4.10 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 19 saves converted and only six blown at home. Take the under (7*). |
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09-22-21 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs to open this series. In fact, you would have to go back to September 15th to find the last time either of these teams posted an 'over' result. Look for that to change on Wednesday. The 'over' is a perfect 8-0 when the Mariners play on the road after winning three or more games in a row over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of 13.2 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' is also a perfect 8-0 when the A's come off consecutive losses at home against division opponents this season, good for an average total of 12.1 runs. The A's average 5.6 runs per game when coming off four straight games scoring four runs or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Neither starter is likely to fool the opposition here given the A's have seen Chris Flexen three times this season while the Mariners have also seen Cole Irvin three times here in 2021. Irvin in particular has struggled, allowing a whopping 22 hits in just 11 2/3 innings. Flexen has seemingly hit the wall lately, topping out at four strikeouts over his last four outings, allowing 24 hits and 11 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings. Additionally, the Mariners bullpen has posted a collective 6.37 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-21 | Braves v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a high-scoring game to open this series last night as the Braves finally snapped out of their offensive funk. I expect some carry-over from that offensive explosion here as we have a subpar starting pitching matchup between spot starter Jesse Chavez and Luke Weaver. Note that the 'over' is 19-10 when the Braves check in having allowed four runs or less in three straight games this season with that spot producing an average total of 9.9 runs. The 'over' is also 39-22 with Atlanta coming off two or more straight wins over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 10.4 runs. On the flip side, the 'over' is an incredible 15-3 with the D'Backs seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent by six runs or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 11.5 runs. Of course, Arizona has been an 'over' machine in general this month, posting a 12-3 o/u mark with an average total of 10.3 runs scored. Braves starter Jesse Chavez made just one previous spot start this season and gave up two earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings. As bad as Arizona has been in terms of wins and losses, it can score runs, having plated at least four runs in eight of its last 11 games. Luke Weaver hasn't really fooled anyone since returning from injury at the start of September. His three starts in that time have resulted in 11, 13 and 12 total runs. Behind Weaver is a D'Backs bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.81 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (8*). |
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09-21-21 | Twins v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Twins have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total but now head to Chicago to face a Cubs squad that has posted five consecutive 'over' results. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. Note that the 'over' has gone 10-2 when the Twins play on the road after scoring three runs or less in consecutive games this season with that situation producing an average total of 12.9 runs. The 'over' is also 12-4 with the Twins on the road after losing a tight game by two runs or less this season with that spot producing an average total of 10.7 runs. Finally, we've seen the 'over' cash at a 14-3 clip with Minnesota on the road revenging a loss in which it scored one run or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, good for an average total of 12.0 runs. As for the Cubs, it's been a case of addition by subtraction during the second half of the season as they've posted a 38-28 o/u record, averaging 4.5 runs per game with an average total of 10.7 runs. Neither of tonight's starters instill much confidence. Griffin Jax got off to a positive start to his rookie season with the Twins but has hit the wall since, allowing 26 earned runs over his last five outings, covering a span of 25 innings. He's allowed at least one home run in all but one of his 11 starts this season and checks in sporting a 6.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in six road starts. Alec Mills has solid overall numbers for the Cubs this season but averages just a shade over five innings per start and that's a concern as the Chicago bullpen has posted a collective 6.39 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off a loss on Sunday, with both managing to score exactly five runs in those losing efforts. The last time we saw the Pirates and Reds match up they combined to score just one run as the Reds salvaged the final game of their series in Pittsburgh last week. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however. Note that the 'over' has gone 7-1 in the Pirates last eight games. That's nothing new as the 'over' is 57-37 when they play on the road in the second half of the season over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of 9.8 runs. Also consider that the 'over' is 38-19 when the Buccos revenge a one-run loss against an opponent over that same span, resulting in an average total of 9.9 runs. Meanwhile, the Reds have posted a 41-31 o/u record at home this season (excluding pushes), good for an average total of 10.6 runs. It gets better though as the 'over' is 23-9 when Cincinnati plays at home off a loss this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 12.1 runs. Pirates starter Dillon Peters has pitched relatively well this season but we're talking about a very small sample size of just 23 1/3 innings. Here, the Reds will be seeing him for the second time in a week. Note that the Cardinals saw him twice in a six-day span back in August. After managing just one run on three hits over five innings the first time they saw him, they doubled their hit total (6) and plated three runs, also over five innings, the next time they matched up. The Reds didn't score a single run off of Peters over five innings last week but I expect better production as they see him for a second time, especially given they're back at home. Reds starter Vladimir Gutierrez has seemingly hit the rookie wall here in September. He's now eclipsed 100 innings pitched on the season and has certainly struggled lately, allowing 13 earned runs in 15 innings over his last four starts. He recorded two strikeouts or less in three of those four outings. Both bullpens have held up well lately, but it's worth noting that the Pittsburgh 'pen has recorded a collective 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with only six saves converted and nine blown in division games this season. The Reds 'pen has posted a collective 5.66 ERA and 1.40 WHIP at home. Take the over (10*). |
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09-18-21 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New York at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Phillies prevailed by a 4-3 score. Here, I'm expecting more in the way of offense as Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola to the hill against Carlos Carrasco. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-1 with the Phillies playing on the road off three or more consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 12.5 runs. Nola averages around 5 2/3 innings per start this season but has lasted less than six innings in seven of his last eight trips to the hill. Meanwhile, Carrasco averages just over four innings per start at home. That's worth considering as both bullpens have been struggling with the Phillies 'pen checking in with a 7.44 ERA and 1.65 WHIP and the Mets relief corps recording a 7.07 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over their last seven games respectively. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-21 | Padres v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night with the Giants doing most of the heavy-lifting in a 9-1 victory. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair as the reeling Padres look to break out of their funk on Tuesday night. Note that the Giants are as hot at the plate as any team in baseball right now, having scored a whopping 8.9 runs per game during their current eight-game winning streak. Here, they'll face a Padres club that has posted a 10-1 o/u record when playing on the road after scoring one run or less in a loss to a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 13.1 runs. In fact, the 'over' is 14-4 with the Padres playing on the road after scoring one run or less in their last game over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 11.6 runs. On the flip side of that, the Giants have posted a 15-3 o/u mark when coming off a win by six runs or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot averaging a total of 12.8 runs. While tonight's Giants starter, Anthony DeSclafani, has generally trended to the 'under', the 'over' has actually gone 9-1 in his last 10 home starts at night with those contests totaling an average of 11.2 runs. The Padres will mercifully trot out Jake Arrieta for another turn in the rotation despite his massive struggles. With Arrieta unlikely to work deep into this game we should see plenty from an overworked San Diego bullpen that has posted a collective 5.84 ERA over the last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-21 | Cubs v. Phillies OVER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Believe it or not, despite yet another series loss - this one coming at home against the lowly Rockies - the Phillies are still in the hunt for an N.L. Wild Card spot, currently sitting just 2.5 games back of the second spot. Here, I expect to see plenty of offensive fireworks as they open an important three-game set against the Cubs. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-1 with the Cubs seeking revenge for a home loss by six runs or more this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing a whopping average total of 15.6 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' has cashed at an incredible 16-3 clip in Phillies starter Kyle Gibson's September outings over the course of his career, good for an average total of 11.7 runs. The wheels have come off for Gibson lately as he's been tagged for 11 earned runs on 15 hits in just 10 innings of work over his last two starts. The Cubs got their bats going a bit on their most recent homestand and should benefit from playing at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park this week. Note that both bullpens have been unreliable lately with the Phillies relief corps posting a collective 7.86 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over their last seven games and Cubs relievers combining to record a 5.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (9*). |
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09-13-21 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 10 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New York at 2:05 pm et on Monday. A direct carry-over to a high-scoring series against the cross-town rival Mets over the weekend, I'm anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks as the Yankees return to the Bronx to host the Twins on Monday afternoon. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 7-0 with the Twins playing on the road revenging a road loss by six runs or more this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 12.6 total runs. The 'over' is also 21-11 with the Twins playing with double-revenge (lost their last two games against their opponent) this season, good for an average total of 10.9 runs. One final 'revenge' angle here; Minnesota has posted a 13-3 o/u mark when revenging a loss against an opponent where they scored one run or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 12.2 runs. The Yankees are giving up 5.7 runs per contest when playing at home after losing three of their last four games this season. In 12 previous situations where they've come off three consecutive 'over' results, their games have totaled an average of 10.5 runs. We should anticipate plenty of scoring opportunities this afternoon with both starters, John Gant for the Twins and Luis Gil for the Yankees, struggling with command issues. Gant has handed out three walks or more in 12 of his 18 starts this season. He owns an ugly 1.55 WHIP in 12 road starts. Gil walked just three hitters combined in his first two big league starts but has issued a whopping 11 walks, including seven in his most recent outing, over his last two starts, covering a span of just eight innings. Also note that the Yankees once-reliable but more recently overworked bullpen has posted a collective 6.13 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-12-21 | Rockies v. Phillies OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Phillies answered back after dropping the first two games in this series, recording a 6-1 victory last night. Here, I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair as the Rockies and Phillies close out their four-game set. Note that the 'over' is 16-7 when the Phillies come off a win by four runs or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 11.0 runs. While Philadelphia is giving up 4.7 runs per game overall this season, it allows 5.3 runs per game when coming off a win. Worse still, the Phillies have allowed 5.9 runs per game when today's starter, Aaron Nola, takes the ball off a team win. That situation has come up 16 times with those games totaling an average of 10.2 runs. Finally, note that Philadelphia has allowed an average of 5.7 runs after giving up two runs or less in its last game this season, as is the case here. That spot has produced an average total of 9.5 runs. As for the Rockies, we know they've struggled to score runs on the road this season, averaging just 3.4 runs per game away from Coors Field. That hasn't necessarily been the case lately, however, as they check in averaging 5.1 runs per contest over their last 12 road games. With the potential of one, if not both of today's starters getting hit hard and two unreliable bullpens in the mix as well - note that the Rockies 'pen owns a 6.16 ERA and 1.50 ERA over the last seven games while Phillies relievers have posted a 6.32 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the same stretch with the two 'pens combining to record just one save while blowing three over that period - I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). |
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09-09-21 | Nationals v. Braves OVER 9 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night as we cashed with the underdog Nationals +1.5 runs in their outright victory. Here, I'm expecting a much higher-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' is 14-4 with the Braves seeking revenge for a loss as a home favorite this season with those games averaging 12.6 total runs. The Nats check in on a 36-22 'over' run with those games totaling an average of 11.1 runs. Washington has actually been fairly consistent offensively in recent games, scoring at least four runs in six consecutive games heading into this one. With a subpar starting pitching matchup featuring Erick Fedde and Huascar Ynoa, and two less than reliable bullpens, expect a high-scoring contest on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-08-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night. In fact, the Rangers have now seen two straight and four of their last five contests stay 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the D'Backs coming off a three-game stretch in which they hit .200 or worse as a team this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 13.3 runs. The 'over' is also 26-11 when Arizona revenges a loss against an opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 11.5 runs. If there's one spot where we can generally count on high-scoring games involving the Rangers, it's on the road in day games over the last two seasons, with the 'over' cashing at a 21-10 clip in that spot, good for an average of 10.5 total runs. With a subpar starting pitching matchup between Arihara and Weaver, not to mention two unreliable bullpens, look for plenty of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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09-07-21 | Mets v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. High-scoring games involving the Marlins have been few and far between in recent weeks but that's the type of contest I'm expecting as they open a series against the Marlins on Tuesday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 12-1 when Miami plays at home after consecutive games where it recorded two hits or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 12.6 runs. The 'over' is also 30-14 when the Marlins play at home after consecutive games where they've scored three runs or less over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 10.2 runs scored. Finally, Miami is allowing 5.0 runs per game after allowing four runs or less in five straight games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, but also averaging 5.0 runs per game itself when coming off a one-run loss against a division opponent this year. With both lineups having just got a look at tonight's opposing starter in the last week, look for more than enough offense to topple this relatively low total on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-06-21 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the Rangers on the run-line in yesterday's 7-3 Texas victory. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as I look for the bats to come alive in the series finale. Note that the 'over' is 23-10 with the Angels coming off four consecutive games in which they scored four runs or less over the last three seasons with those contests totaling an average of 10.4 runs. The 'over' is a perfect 10-0 when the Angels play at home after three or more straight games against division opponents this season with that spot producing an average total of 12.6 runs. Neither Rangers rookie starter A.J. Alexy or Jaime Barria of the Angels inspire a great deal of confidence here, nor do the two ragged bullpens. Take the over (9*). |
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09-06-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Mariners and Astros on Monday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 17-5 with the Mariners coming off four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games averaging 11.8 total runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 12-3 with the Astros playing at home after losing three of their last four games with that situation producing an average total of 11.4 runs. The Astros will inexplicably be getting their sixth look at Mariners starter Yusei Kikuchi this season while the Mariners will be seeing Lance McCullers Jr. for the four time this year and seventh time since the start of 2020. Four of Kikuchi's six starts against Houston since last season have totaled at least 11 runs. Two of McCullers Jr.'s three outings against Seattle this year have reached at least 14 total runs. Take the over (10*). |
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09-05-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night, perhaps not unexpected after Friday's wild 19-run affair (St. Louis won 15-4). Here, I expect another relatively high-scoring contest as the Cards send veteran Jon Lester to the hill against Corbin Burnes. Lester has allowed exactly one earned run in consecutive outings. That actually sets the 'over' up well in this one, noting that the 'over' has gone 27-11 when Lester starts on the road after allowing one earned run or less in consecutive starts, with that situation producing an average total of 10.2 runs. The 'over' is also 14-5 with the Cards revenging a loss where they scored a single run or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 9.7 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a long-term 183-139 with the Brewers at home off a win by four runs or more, producing an average total of 9.5 runs. Take the over (10*). |
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09-04-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. |
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09-03-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 9 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off consecutive low-scoring games. With a subpar pitching matchup on tap Friday night, I'm expecting a different story to unfold. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 with the Twins playing on the road off consecutive games where they plated three runs or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 13.9 runs. The 'over' has also gone 31-9 with Minnesota having lost three of its last four contests this season with that spot producing an average total of 10.8 runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 17-7 with the Rays playing with 'double revenge' this season, good for an average total of 9.6 runs. The 'over' has also cashed at a 15-6 clip with the Rays coming off a game where four or less total runs were scored this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of 9.2 runs. Take the over (8*). |
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09-03-21 | Phillies v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Phillies are desperately trying to stay in the N.L. playoff race but they've by no means tightened things up, with a number of recent slugfests. I expect another similarly high-scoring result on Friday night in Miami. The 'over' has gone 11-2 with the Phillies coming off three or more consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here, good for an average total of 11.3 runs scored in that spot. Meanwhile, the 'over' is an incredible 10-1 with the Marlins coming off three or more consecutive 'under' results over the last three seasons. That situation has produced a whopping average total of 13 runs - nearly double the total we're working with tonight. Both starting pitchers are coming off outings in which they didn't allow a single run. That changes here. Take the over (8*). |
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09-03-21 | Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. If we're going to play an 'under' at this stage of the MLB season, we want to do so in situations where both starters are capable of working deep into the game as bullpens are usually overworked by this point and tend to be unreliable. That makes this play appealing as both Indians starter Cal Quantrill and Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi certainly fit the bill. Quantrill has worked at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts overall and has the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest here. He's been a completely different pitcher since the second week of July, allowing more than a single earned run just three times in his last 10 outings. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last nine trips to the hill. Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight of his last 11 starts and into the seventh inning in five consecutive outings at home. He's been solid at Fenway Park all season, recording a 2.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Like Quantrill, he'll be pitching on a full five days' rest here, noting that the two starters just matched up in Cleveland last week with that game totaling eight runs. Note that two of the Indians best hitters, Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes are currently mired in 0-for-11 and 0-for-14 slumps at the plate, respectively. As for the bullpens, they've combined to record seven saves while blowing only two over their last eight games. With both teams playing well right now, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on a cool September night at Fenway Park. Take the under (10*). |
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09-03-21 | Mets v. Nationals OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair in the nation's capital on Friday night as the suddenly surging Mets open a series against the reeling Nationals. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-2 with the Nats coming off three straight losses against division opponents over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 12.5 runs. We've also seen the 'over' cash at an incredible 10-1 clip with the Mets playing on the road off a one-run win over a division opponent over the last three seasons with that spot resulting in an average total of 11.7 runs. Finally, the 'over' is 25-13 with the Mets playing as a road favorite priced -110 or higher over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 9.8 runs. Take the over (9*). |
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09-03-21 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Friday. We saw a wild, high-scoring extra innings affair between these two teams in last night's series-opener. With the park expected to play fairly neutral weather-wise on Friday, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest. Note that the 'under' is 13-2 in Pirates starter Stephen Brault's 15 starts since the start of last season with those games totaling an average of just 5.9 runs. He got lit up by the Cardinals in his most recent start but I expect a solid bounce-back performance here, noting that he's pitched 10 scoreless innings against the Cubs in two starts since the start of last season. Also note that the 'under' has gone 25-8 with the Cubs coming off four wins in their last five games over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 6.8 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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09-01-21 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive low-scoring games to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon. Jake Odorizzi gets the nod for the Astros. He hasn't worked six innings in a start since way back on July 9th and that's telling. He hasn't been pitching particularly well, sporting a 1.50 WHIP over his last three starts. The Mariners have already got three previous looks at him this season and have had some success, collecting eight earned runs and delivering three home runs off of him. Note that the 'over' has cashed in six of his last eight starts overall with his last two outings against the Mariners totaling 16 and 15 runs. Logan Gilbert has seemingly hit the 'rookie wall' for the Mariners. He'll pitch on just four days' rest and make his sixth start since August 4th, having allowed a whopping 24 earned runs over his previous five including five home runs over his last three trips to the hill. The Astros just teed off on him back on August 21st, scoring nine earned runs on eight hits over just 4 2/3 innings in a 15-1 victory. Both bullpens are generally solid but check in having blown two saves apiece over their last seven games respectively. Take the over (10*). |
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08-29-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. Ranger Suarez has been about as reliable as it gets for the Phillies, stepping into the rotation at the start of the month and allowing just five earned runs in 21 1/3 innings of work. His three previous home starts have totaled just 8, 3 and 4 runs. Meanwhile, D'Backs veteran starter Madison Bumgarner has enjoyed a nice comeback season and enters this outing having worked at least six innings in six consecutive starts. His last three road outings have totaled just 5, 2 and 6 runs. The left-hander has posted an impressive 1.05 WHIP in 10 road starts this season. The less said about the two bullpens the better, but I'm not sure they'll be asked to do too much in this one, and neither lineup has really been tearing the cover off the ball (note that Friday's wild 7-6 extra innings game was 4-4 after nine innings). Weather conditions aren't nearly as favorable for hitters at Citizens Bank Park as they were earlier in the week. Take the under (10*). |
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08-25-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Both Walker Buehler and Blake Snell have pitched like aces here in August and I look for another well-pitched game as the two square off on Wednesday night at Petco Park. Buehler checks in sporting a 2.07 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 10 road starts this season. In four August starts he has allowed just five earned runs in 26 2/3 innings of work. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three of those four games. Meanwhile, the Dodgers bullpen has posted a collective 0.91 WHIP while converting five saves without a single blown save over their last seven games. Blake Snell owns a 2.68 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 10 home starts this season with the 'under' cashing in eight of those games. He's had his share of issues at times this season but not against the Dodgers as he's given up just four earned runs in 15 1/3 innings. In six career starts against Los Angeles, Snell owns a 1.03 WHIP. The Padres bullpen has recorded a collective ERA north of five over its last seven games but a much more respectable 1.14 WHIP. Note that both bullpens enjoyed a day off on Monday so they should be relatively fresh here in the second game of this series. Take the under (9*). |
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08-25-21 | Rays v. Phillies OVER 8 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Tampa Bay and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night with just four total runs scored. I'm expecting to see a higher total reached in the first five innings alone on Wednesday, however. Ryan Yarbrough will get the start for Tampa Bay. He's been awful in three of his last four starts and checks in having allowed four home runs in his last two outings, covering a span of just 10 innings of work. The Phillies are obviously in desperate need of a spark right now and I think they get it as they face Yarbrough for the second time this season (they chased him after 4 1/3 innings in a 5-3 victory in late May). By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a terrific Rays bullpen that has been lights out over the last seven games. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. Like Yarbrough, he's struggled for the most part lately, allowing at least four earned runs in five of his last eight trips to the hill. The last time we saw Wheeler pitch here in Philadelphia he allowed two home runs over six innings against the Reds. On another favorable night for long balls at Citizens Bank Park, I expect him to get tagged again here. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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08-25-21 | Tigers v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and St. Louis at 1:15 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams have been involved in their share of low-scoring games recently but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon in St. Louis. Tarik Skubal will take the ball for Detroit. He's pitched well over his last few starts but note that two of those came at home and the other came on the road against an awful Orioles team. Skubal still owns a less than impressive 5.11 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in nine road starts. Also note that he averages fewer than five innings per start on the road this season. That means we're likely to see plenty of a Tigers bullpen that has posted a collective 5.69 ERA and 1.61 WHIP away from home (entering last night's action). Jon Lester has been a complete train wreck this season and has done little to turn things around since joining the Cardinals. He has recorded a 5.08 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 12 home starts. Over his last three outings that ERA sits at 5.87 to go along with a 1.70 WHIP. His last 10 starts have resulted in 13, 21, 12, 14, 19, 8, 7, 11, 13 and 12 total runs - good for an average of 13 runs. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Nationals may simply be playing out the string at this point but they're still hitting, having scored 38 runs over their last six games. I expect them to get involved in another high-scoring affair to open this series in Miami on Tuesday night. Erick Fedde will get the call for the Nats. He owns an ERA of nearly six and a 1.76 WHIP over his last three starts. The 'over' has cashed in each of his last four trips to the hill. Behind Fedde is a struggling Nats bullpen that owns a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over their last seven contests. Jesus Luzardo will counter for Miami. He's struggled since coming over from Oakland, checking in with an 11.37 ERA and 2.37 WHIP over his last three starts. His last two outings have resulted in 24 and 20 total runs. Behind Fedde is a Marlins bullpen that has posted a collective 9.64 ERA and 1.97 WHIP over their last seven games. With the Marlins getting healthier lineup-wise of late, they won't shy away from a potential slugfest here. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-21 | Angels v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Dylan Bundy has been marginally better (at times at least) for the Angels this season but here he'll face an Orioles lineup that will look to take their frustrations out on their former teammate - mired in an 18-game losing streak but having faced three straight opponents in the midst of playoff races. It's a different story here as the O's welcome the Angels, who just got swept by the Indians and sit out of the playoff race, two games under .500 on the season. Bundy owns an ugly 7.16 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts this season. He's failed to last through the fifth inning in six of his last seven outings. I do think the O's lineup is better than it has shown in recent weeks and its recent struggles have had more to do with the level of opposition it has faced than anything else (Red Sox, Rays and Braves). Again, I think we see the O's take their frustrations out on the Angels subpar pitching staff on Tuesday. Spenser Watkins will counter for Baltimore. He owns a terrible 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over his last three starts. In six nighttime outings this season he has recorded a 6.21 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. Meanwhile, the O's bullpen owns a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home this season. After being held to just two runs in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Indians look for the Angles to bust out at the plate in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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08-23-21 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Boston at 1:10 pm et on Monday. I think an off day might have been the best thing for the Red Sox slumping offense yesterday and look for them to bust out against Kolby Allard and the Rangers pitching staff on Monday. With that being said, I'm not interested in paying the massive price to back Boston here so will instead play the 'over' as I do think the Rangers can do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. Kolby Allard has been tagged for a whopping 12 home runs in his last seven outings. On a warm afternoon in Boston we should see the ball carrying well at Fenway Park and I expect Allard to once again give up his fair share of long balls, noting that he has posted a 33% fly ball rate on batted balls this season. Allard checks in sporting a 5.64 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the road this season. The Rangers bullpen meanwhile has recorded an ERA north of five and a 1.47 WHIP with only six saves converted and seven blown on the road this season. Nathan Eovaldi will counter for Boston. Like Allard he's had a tough time keeping the ball in the park lately, allowing six home runs over his last four outings. Behind Eovaldi is a Red Sox 'pen that has recorded a collective 4.84 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in day games this season and a 1.44 WHIP over its last seven contests. It's been feast or famine for the Rangers offense lately but they have plated at least seven runs in four of their last eight games. Take the over (10*). |
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08-22-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. This game has slugfest written all over it on a hot day in Denver with the wind blowing out to right field. Off a low-scoring affair last night, look for a different story to unfold here. Taylor Widener takes the ball for the D'Backs. He has allowed at least one home run in six straight starts and three in his last two outings, spanning just 10 innings of work. Note that he hasn't lasted beyond the fifth inning in any of his last seven starts. The Arizona bullpen has of course been awful all season, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road (entering last night's action). Jon Gray will counter for Colorado. He's been shaky since the trade deadline passed (his name was swirling around plenty of rumors at the time). He enters this start sporting an ERA north of six and a WHIP over 1.70 over his last three outings. While the Colorado bullpen has been better lately, it still owns an ugly 5.45 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-21-21 | Royals v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. With ideal weather conditions for the hitters (wind blowing out to left-center field) I expect a high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field on Saturday. Kris Bubic has given up five home runs in three August starts for the Royals. While the Cubs are shells of their former selves offensively, they are set up well to have a solid day at the plate on Saturday. Note that Chicago is a better hitting team both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. The Royals bullpen owns an ugly 4.98 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season. Chicago will give Keegan Thompson his first start since May. He fared ok in that start against the Dodgers but still only worked into the fifth inning. With Thompson unlikely to work deep into this game we should see plenty of the Cubs bullpen, which has been terrible lately, posting a 7.96 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over its last seven games. The Royals meanwhile busted out at the dish with multiple home runs yesterday and I expect some carry-over here. Take the over (8*). |
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08-20-21 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Friday. With weather conditions favoring the hitters once again in Cincinnati on Friday night, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Marlins and Reds. Elieser Hernandez will get just his fourth start of the season for the Marlins. He'll be pitching on four days' rest after a solid outing against the Cubs last time out. Keep in mind, he has allowed a home run in each of his three starts this season and two of his three outings have come against bottom-dwelling teams in the Pirates and Cubs. Here, he faces a playoff-hungry Reds club that averages 5.5 runs per game at Great American Ballpark. The Marlins bullpen has of course been a train wreck lately, entering last night's action sporting a collective 8.77 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over their last seven games. Sonny Gray will counter for the Reds as he makes his third straight start on just four days' rest. He owns a 5.44 ERA and 1.46 WHIP at home this season. Behind him is a Reds bullpen that has been extremely overworked, having not had a day off since back on August 2nd. With the Marlins likely to have Jazz Chisholm back in the lineup on Friday, I expect them to put up a better effort at the dish than we saw last night. Take the over (10*). |
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08-19-21 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Marlins are still undecided as to who will take the mound for the opener of this four-game series in Cincinnati. Regardless who does, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair. Cincinnati is coming off consecutive low-scoring games against the Cubs after an offensive explosion on Monday. Weather conditions have been favoring the hitters all week at already hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark and there's more of the same in the forecast for Thursday. Luis Castillo will make his third straight starts on just four days' rest. He's been laboring lately, allowing 11 earned runs on 12 hits over his last two outings, spanning just 10 innings of work. He's been tagged for at least a home run in four consecutive outings. Note that his last two starts against the Marlins have totaled 14 and 13 runs. Here, he'll be facing a Marlins club that is as close to full strength as it has been all season and is coming off a three-game series against Atlanta that saw 36 total runs scored. Behind Castillo is a Reds bullpen that hasn't had a day off since August 2nd. Not surprisingly they've struggled with an ERA north of six and a 1.160 WHIP over their last seven games. Worse still, the Marlins 'pen has posted a collective 8.77 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take the over (10*). |
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08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
N.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pitcher's duel between Corbin Burnes and Adam Wainwright to open this series last night and I expect more of the same as Freddy Peralta goes up against Jack Flaherty on Wednesday. Peralta checks in sporting a 2.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 10 road starts this season with the 'under' cashing in six of those games. Better still, he owns a 1.88 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 11 nighttime starts. Note that he'll be facing a Cardinals lineup that is missing a couple of key bats in Paul DeJong (back) and Dylan Carlson (wrist). Jack Flaherty made a triumphant return to the Cards rotation last Friday night as he tossed six shutout innings against the Royals (we won with the 'under'). Flaherty has made four home starts this season, recording an incredible 1.44 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. He's faced the Brewers once this season, allowing just four hits over six shutout innings in a 2-0 victory back in May. Both bullpens are reliable enough to trust in this one. Much like last night's affair, I expect this one to have a 'playoff-type' feel and prove low-scoring once again. Take the under (10*). |
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08-18-21 | Angels v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw last night's game get 'over' the total thanks to a late scoring flurry from the Angels. I don't expect 'over' backers to be so fortunate on Wednesday, however. It's interesting to note that the 'over' has gone 3-0-1 so far on the Tigers current homestand but the 'under' remains 37-22-2 here at Comerica Park this season. Weather conditions should favor the pitchers on Wednesday night with the winds blowing in from left. Shohei Ohtani will take the ball for the Angels. Los Angeles has done an excellent job of managing his arm down the stretch as he'll be making just his sixth start since the beginning of July. He's been in excellent form, allowing only six earned runs over his last five starts, working at least six innings in all five of those outings. He faced the Tigers once previously this season, allowing just one earned run over six innings back in June. Tarik Skubal will counter for Detroit. Like Ohtani, he brings excellent form into this start having not allowed a single earned run over 11 innings in his last two outings. The 'under' has cashed in seven of his 12 home starts this season as he has posted a soldi 3.51 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at Comerica Park. The Angels bullpen has turned things around after a rough start to the season and has converted 17 saves while blowing only seven on the road this season. The Tigers 'pen coughed it up last night but has still posted 15 saves while blowing only six at home. Take the under (6*). |
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08-18-21 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen the 'under' cash in each of the first two games in this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon. First, it's worth mentioning that weather conditions favored the pitchers the last two nights but that flips to favor the hitters on Wednesday with warm temperatures and the wind blowing toward left field. Zach Plesac will take the ball for Cleveland. Having not had a day off since July (!), the Indians could certainly use a long outing from him on Wednesday but I'm not sure they'll get it. While he did pitch into the eighth inning in his most recent start, that actually works against him here as he makes his third straight start on just four days' rest. Note that Plesac has posted an ERA north of six over his last three outings and owns a very pedestrian 4.89 ERA in eight road starts this season. He's pitched just once here at Target Field, allowing five earned runs over seven innings in an 8-4 loss last September. Lewis Thorpe will get a spot start for the Twins. In three previous starts this season he has allowed six earned runs in 13 innings, managing to record only four strikeouts to go along with four walks and 13 hits allowed. With Thorpe unlikely to work deep into the game we're likely to see plenty of a Twins bullpen that owns a collective ERA nearing five at home this season. Take the over (6*). |
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08-17-21 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
MLB o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Dodgers prevailed by a 2-1 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Wil Crowe will take the ball for Pittsburgh. He's in a tough spot here, noting that he has posted a 6.10 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in eight road starts this season, most recently getting lit up for three home runs in his last road outing in Cincinnati. Dodger Stadium could very well play a bit like Great American Ballpark tonight with the wind blowing out to left-center and I expect the homer-happy Dodgers to take advantage of Crowe here. Note that Crowe has been tagged for six home runs in his last three road starts, covering a span of just 14 1/3 innings of work. Behind Crowe is a subpar Pirates bullpen that owns a 5.22 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). David Price will get the nod for the Dodgers. He'll once again be on a short leash here, having yet to last more than 5 2/3 innings in a start this season. He hasn't fared particularly well in his last two home starts, allowing four home runs in 11 innings. With the Dodgers bullpen having not enjoyed a day off in over a week, with some extra innings affairs in the mix, there's reason to believe that the Pirates can scratch together some offense tonight. Note that they were threatening virtually all game long last night but simply couldn't break through. It's been feast or famine for the Buccos at the plate lately but worth noting that they're only a couple of days removed from exploding for 14 runs against the Brewers on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-21 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. Conditions favored the pitchers last night but a couple of big innings ended up spoiling our 'under' play. Here, we have arguably a better pitching matchup with conditions once again favoring the hurlers on a warm, muggy night at Oracle Park. I'm anticipating a low-scoring affair. Marcus Stroman will start for the Mets. He checks in sporting a 2.64 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the road this season. Going back to July 16th, his last six starts have totaled just 5, 7, 2, 8, 6 and 5 runs. Meanwhile, Giants starter Logan Webb is quite simply one of the most underrated starters in baseball right now. He has given up two earned runs or less in 10 consecutive starts, with the 'under' going 7-3 over that stretch. In fact, each of his last five outings have stayed 'under' the total. He has posted an incredible 1.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in seven home starts this season with all seven of those games staying 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
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08-17-21 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 12 | 3-7 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with our free play on the 'over' in this matchup last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday. Weather conditions will once again favor the hitters considerably in this one with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out to right-center field. Matt Strahm gets a spot start for the undermanned Padres pitching staff. He's been on the hill for just 5 1/3 innings this season and has allowed opponents to hit well north of .400. Note that he hasn't made a big league start since back in 2019. He faced the Rockies once in starting role that season and was lit up for six earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in a 9-6 loss here at Coors Field. The Padres bullpen is beyond overworked at this point, having logged north of 500 innings on the season and 34 innings over the last seven games alone. We're starting to see some signs of regression as their relief corps has posted a collective 1.47 WHIP over those last seven contests. German Marquez will counter for Colorado. The Padres haven't enjoyed much success against him this season but his two previous starts against them came at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. In his last start against San Diego at Coors Field he allowed five earned runs on eight hits over just six innings last August. Note that Marquez has seen his ERA rise from 3.37 to 3.78 since the All-Star break. He'll pitch on just four days' rest on Tuesday after getting torched for seven earned runs over four innings against the Giants last time out. Even if Marquez is sharp tonight, it's unlikely he'll work much more than six innings, opening the door for a Rockies bullpen that has been awful at home this season, posting a collective 5.66 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 12 blown. Take the over (9*). |
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08-16-21 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. We saw a very high-scoring game involving the Mets last night as they were blown out at home against the Dodgers. Here, as they hit the road to face the N.L. West leading Giants, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. Oracle Park in San Francisco has long been known as a pitcher's park and that should hold true on Monday night with cool temperatures and the wind blowing out - but to the deepest part of the park - favoring the pitchers. Rich Hill will start for the Mets. He has posted a 1.21 WHIP in 10 road starts this season and is trending to the 'under' right now having posted a 2-4-1 o/u mark in his last seven outings. The Giants have been a weaker offensive team against left-handed pitching this season, averaging 4.2 runs per game compared to their overall average of 4.9 runs per game. Kevin Gausman counters for San Francisco. He has posted a stellar 0.97 WHIP at home this season. Gausman checks in having allowed only two earned runs in 11 innings over his last two outings. Note that the Mets have scored more than five runs in a game just once since July 23rd. The probability of an offensive breakout here is relatively low. Take the under (8*). |
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08-16-21 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Neither Cal Quantrill or Griffin Jax are household names, but both have been pitching exceptionally well lately and I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair featuring the two young starters on Monday. The Indians are of course coming off an 11-run outburst in Detroit yesterday. Performances like that have been few and far between for this fading club lately though, as they had been held to four runs or less in four of their last five games prior to yesterday's contest. Better than their offensive production was the fact that starter Triston McKenzie gave them eight strong innings, meaning only closer Emmanuel Clase (who hadn't pitched since August 10th) was used out of the bullpen, giving that group a much-needed rest (Cleveland hasn't had a day off since July 26th). Cal Quantrill is locked in for the Indians right now having allowed two earned runs or less in six consecutive starts. He's worked at least into the sixth inning in five straight and seven of his last eight outings. He enters this outing sporting a 3.14 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in eight nighttime starts, with the 'under' going 5-2-1 in those contests. Griffin Jax was shaky in his big league debut back in early July but has settled down considerably since, allowing just six earned runs in 20 1/3 innings over his last four outings. In his most recent start, Jax worked a career high six innings and struck out 10 against a red hot White Sox lineup. Behind Jax is an improving Twins bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 3.72 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over their last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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08-16-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The ball has been flying all over Great American Ballpark since mid-July but with the Reds coming off a week long road trip perhaps a lot of bettors have forgotten about their strong 11-4 o/u trend here at home. Over their last two homestands, the Reds have seen their games reach totals of 17, 11, 8, 26, 7, 7, 11, 8, 16, 12, 11, 11, 10, 14 and 5 runs - good for an average of 11.6 runs per game. With weather conditions once again favoring the hitters on Monday night, look for that 'over' trend to continue. The Cubs aren't scoring with much consistency right now but they did prove they're not completely lifeless at the dish when they plated 10 runs this past Friday night in Miami. A trip to Cincinnati could be good for them as they get to face Reds starter Wade Miley on Monday, noting that they've already seen him three times this season and have had some success, racking up 22 hits and eight walks in just 16 innings. They faced him once last year here in Cincinnati as well, chasing him before the end of the second inning but not before scoring five earned runs. I realize that this isn't the same Cubs squad post-trade deadline but there are still plenty of holdovers capable of giving Miley a rough ride on Monday. Rookie Justin Steele is one of the Cubs top pitching prospects but this isn't an ideal second big league start after he gave up a pair of home runs and three earned runs (while striking out just one) in five innings against the Brewers last week. Note that the Reds have scored at least six runs in eight of their last 12 games, plating 10 or more runs on three different occasions over that stretch. With Steele unlikely to work deep into this game we should see plenty of a Chicago bullpen that is in absolute shambles right now. Cubs relievers have posted a collective 8.78 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (6*). |
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08-15-21 | Dodgers v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 14-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball First Five Innings Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Los Angeles and New York at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. After consecutive extra innings affairs, we'll look to avoid the bullpens in this one and play the 'first five innings' under the total. Max Scherzer will get his third start with the Dodgers after his most recent outing was cut short due to rain. Scherzer should have a live arm after working just 3 1/3 innings before the rain moved in earlier this week against the Phillies. Scherzer has not surprisingly pitched well in Dodger Blue, allowing just two earned runs while striking out 16 and walking just one in 10 1/3 innings of work since joining Los Angeles. He checks in sporting a 3.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the road this season. The Mets are hoping Carlos Carrasco can pick them up after back-to-back one-run extra inning losses. After pitching reasonably well in his first two starts of the season he had a rough outing last time out. It was really the story of a bad start as he gave up consecutive singles before Juan Soto touched him up for a three-run home run to start the game. In limited work this season, Carrasco has posted an impressively-low 29.0% hard-hit ball percentage to go along with a 48.4% ground ball percentage. I look for him to bounce back here. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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08-14-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in this matchup last night but despite a well-pitched game from both starters we still had an opportunity to cash with the potential 'over-clinching' run at the plate in the ninth inning. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play, noting that weather conditions once again favor the hitters in Philadelphia. Luis Castillo gets the start for Cincinnati. We won with the 'over' in this most recent start - a 9-3 loss in Cleveland on Monday. Castillo will once again pitch on just four days' rest on Saturday - the third time he will have done so in his last four outings. He's now been tagged for five home runs in his last three starts and as I mentioned, conditions should favor the hitters at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday. Castillo checks in sporting a 5.40 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in eight of his 12 road starts this season. Behind Castillo is a Reds bullpen that held up well last night but has generally struggled this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.51 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 19 saves converted and 13 blown on the road this season. Note that the Reds haven't had a day off since August 2nd. Matt Moore will get a spot start for the Phillies on Saturday. He's generally been awful this season, posting a 9.30 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in five home starts. With Moore averaging just over four innings per start we're likely to see plenty of the Phillies bullpen. Their relief corps has posted a collective 4.82 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with 15 saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-13-21 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
MLB o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Cardinals are coming off a high-scoring affair to close out their series in Pittsburgh yesterday. Keep in mind, weather conditions were favorable for the hitters in that one as it was hot and humid with the wind blowing out. We're likely to see a different story on Friday with conditions favoring the pitchers and I look for Jack Flaherty and Mike Minor to take advantage. Flaherty will of course be returning to the rotation for the first time since May. There's no question he's ready to come back, keeping in mind his injury was actually to his left side rather than his throwing side. All indications are that he could have returned in the series in Pittsburgh but the Cards didn't want him hitting in an N.L. park. Here, he'll be able to focus solely on pitching and should fare well against a Royals club he has owned, facing them once in each of the last three seasons, allowing just two earned runs in 19 innings of work. While Flaherty isn't expected to be on a pitch count for this one, we could still see plenty of the Cardinals bullpen. That's not necessarily a bad thing as they've recorded a collective 2.40 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown in 56 1/3 innings of work in interleague play this season. Entering yesterday's action they had posted a 1.02 WHIP over their last seven contests. Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. After a long stretch of starting exclusively on four days' rest he has had a little more time off to rest his arm lately. He's struggled in his last couple of starts but both of those came on the road. Here at home, while his ERA north of five leaves a lot to be desired, he has posted a respectable 1.18 WHIP. In his last three home outings he has allowed eight earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. Note that the Cardinals check in averaging just 3.6 runs per game against left-handed pitching this season. Behind Minor is an improving Royals bullpen that enjoyed an off day yesterday and has posted a collective 3.18 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the last seven games. Like the Cardinals, the Royals 'pen has also thrived in interleague play, recording a 2.56 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with six saves converted and only two blown. Take the under (10*). |
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08-13-21 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 6-8 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in the A's 17-0 rout of the Indians yesterday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they continue their road trip in Texas on Friday. Cole Irvin gets the start for the A's. He's actually been getting stronger as the season goes on. He'll be facing the Rangers for the fourth time this season but his most recent outing against them was his best as he gave up just two earned runs over seven innings. Note that Texas has plated just 18 runs over its last nine games combined. Irvin has been at his best on the road, recording a 3.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with the 'under' cashing in eight of his 10 starts. The A's bullpen has been lights out lately, recording a collective 0.99 ERA and 0.73 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over their last seven games. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He's been a completely different pitcher here at the friendly confines of Globe Life Field. In 11 home outings he has posted a 2.51 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He brings fine form into this starts having recorded a 3.37 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his last three outings with the 'under' cashing in two of those. He last faced the A's back on July 1st in Oakland and didn't allow a single run over four innings. Behind Dunning is a Rangers bullpen that has also performed much better at home, sporting a collective 3.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Take the under (8*). |
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08-13-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. While this looks like a fine starting pitching matchup at first glance, a deeper look leads me to believe we could be in for a relatively high-scoring affair on Friday night. The Phillies are actually coming off a low-scoring series against the Dodgers despite the fact that weather conditions certainly favored the hitters with heat, high humidity and the wind blowing out. That remains the case on Friday. Tyler Mahle has been pitching well for the Reds lately. However, here he'll be making his second straight start on four days' rest after working seven innings last time out. He's allowed just three home runs in 65 2/3 innings of work on the road this season but 15 in 58 innings pitched at home. Tonight, I would anticipate Citizens Bank Park playing a lot more like Great American Ballpark than usual due to the weather conditions. Mahle has faced the Phillies twice previously, allowing five earned runs including three home runs in just six innings. The Reds bullpen has held up well lately but can it really be trusted? Cincinnati's relief corps enters this game sporting a 5.28 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with 19 saves converted but 17 blown in night games this season. Zack Wheeler is a legitimate N.L. Cy Young contender but like Mahle, is in a bit of a tough spot here as he makes his third straight start on four days' rest. When you consider he's pitched at least into the eighth inning in each of his last two outings you can understand why his arm might not have quite as much life in it on Friday. We actually won with Wheeler in his last start as he tossed a complete game shutout against the Mets. Here, however, he'll face a Reds club that is heating up having scored 18 runs in their last two games and it's worth noting that Wheeler is by no means invincible as he had allowed seven earned runs in 14 1/3 innings in his two previous starts before last Sunday's stellar outing. The Phillies bullpen hasn't been particularly sharp at home this season, recording a collective 4.82 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. In night games it has converted 17 saves while blowing 12. Take the over (9*). |
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08-12-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Thursday. The Giants just wrapped up a two-game sweep of the lowly D'Backs last night as they pounded away on an awful Arizona pitching staff. I expect they'll find the going a little tougher on Thursday as they face Rockies All-Star starter German Marquez. Meanwhile, the Rockies offense was non-existent in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Astros (they scored a grand total of one run). Expect more of the same against Giants improving young starter Logan Webb. Marquez got roughed up by the Giants in three starts earlier this season, but all three came before the second week of May, when the veteran right-hander was struggling mightily out of the gate. He's settled down since and enters this start sporting a 2.52 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 14 nighttime starts this season. Over his last two outings he's allowed just six hits and two earned runs in 12 innings of work. Speaking to his consistency, he has worked at least six innings in nine consecutive starts. I like the fact that he'll be pitching on a full five days' rest for the second consecutive start here. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Rockies bullpen that is always a disaster waiting to happen, having posted a collective ERA north of five and a WHIP hovering around 1.50. Logan Webb will counter for San Francisco. He's quietly been one of the best pitchers on the Giants elite staff this season. Like Marquez, Webb got off to a shaky start this season and had a couple of rough early outings against these same Rockies. However, since giving up six earned runs in a start against Colorado back on May 5th, Webb has allowed two earned runs or less in nine consecutive outings. He's been outstanding here at home this season, posting a stellar 1.91 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts with all six staying 'under' the total. He's lasted six innings in each of his last three starts and like Marquez, has the benefit of pitching on a full five days' rest here. While the Giants bullpen has held up well, it's certainly worth noting that they haven't had an off day since back on July 26th. I'm not interested in testing the waters with that relief corps here, so we'll instead play the first five innings only. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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08-12-21 | Blue Jays v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Premier Play. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night with the Blue Jays doing most of the heavy lifting. I expect a much different story to unfold on Thursday, however. Jose Berrios will make his third start with his new team. He's been lights out in the first two, allowing just one earned run while striking out 13 in 12 innings of work. He seemed to figure out the Angels lineup pretty well the last time he faced them in July (as a member of the Twins), allowing just two unearned runs over seven innings in a 2-1 loss. Note that Berrios has been at his best at night this season, recording a 2.26 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 20 starts. Behind Berrios is a Blue Jays bullpen that has been pitching well lately, recording a 2.05 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over their last seven games. They've converted 14 saves while blowing only five on the road this season. Shohei Ohtani will counter for Los Angeles. He'll be making just his fourth start since July 19th and first in over a week so there are no real concerns of a tired arm here. Note that Ohtani has posted a sparkling 1.79 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in nine home starts this season with the 'under' cashing in five of those games. While the Angels bullpen has struggled all season, the good news is Ohtani has lasted at least six innings in six of his last seven starts so we may not need a great deal of help from the Los Angeles relief corps here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-11-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Last night's game between these two teams found its way 'over' the total thanks to extra innings. Tonight, I'm anticipating a more comfortable victory for 'over' backers. Spencer Howard gets the nod for Texas. He was the key piece coming back to the Rangers in the Kyle Gibson deal. While Howard has the potential to be a quality starter in the Rangers rotation for years to come, in the short-term he's likely to continue to struggle. Howard hasn't made it beyond the fourth inning in any of his eight starts this season. He made six starts during his rookie season a year ago and lasted five innings just once. That spells trouble as the Rangers bullpen has been awful on the road, posting a 5.36 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with only six saves converted and six blown entering last night's action. While they did eventually record a save in last night's game that was only after coughing up the lead in the ninth inning (the Mariners probably should have won the game in walk-off fashion as they loaded the bases with no outs) and then also giving up a run in the 10th. Tyler Anderson will counter for Seattle. While he's pitched reasonably well this season, I do think the Rangers can scratch together enough offense against him to help this one 'over' the total. Note that Anderson will be making his home debut for the Mariners after coming over prior to the trade deadline. The last time he pitched here at T-Mobile Park he was tagged for four earned runs in just four innings in a start last September. The Rangers have been a better offensive club against southpaws this season, averaging just shy of four runs per game. Take the over (7*). |
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08-11-21 | Brewers v. Cubs OVER 10 | 10-0 | Push | 0 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the second game of yesterday's double-header between these two teams and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Interestingly, that game last night featured just one total run after five innings (in a seven-inning game) but still found its way 'over' the total of 8.5. Weather conditions are once again expected to favor the hitters on Wednesday night with the wind strongly blowing out to right-center field. Corbin Burnes will take the ball for the Brewers. He'll be starting on just four days' rest for the first time since April on Wednesday. Note that he's allowed a home run in each of his last two starts. That's after giving up a grand total of just two home runs in his previous 16 outings. I'll also point out that he has topped out at six strikeouts in his last three starts. That's the longest such streak of the season where he didn't record more than seven strikeouts. Behind Burnes is a Brewers bullpen that has hit the wall a little bit lately, posting a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over their last seven contests with three converted saves to go along with three blown. Jake Arrieta will counter for Chicago. He's been a train wreck lately, allowing 16 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of only 11 1/3 innings. He's given up at least one home run in seven straight starts and allowed a whopping three in his most recent outing. The Brewers will be getting their fourth look at Arrieta this season, having scored a whopping 28 runs in those previous three contests. The Cubs bullpen simply isn't the same unit is was a few weeks ago. Chicago's relief corps has posted a collective 5.33 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with only one converted save over its last seven games. Take the over (9*). |
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08-11-21 | Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Premier O/U Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday night. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams in last night's series-opener but that was to be expected with Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola toeing the rubber. Here, we can anticipate a much different story to unfold. David Price will get the start for Los Angeles. After giving up two home runs in his most recent start (he's allowed two home runs in two of his last three outings) I won't be surprised if he gets caught trying to be a little 'too perfect' on Wednesday and the Phillies certainly have a lineup capable of punishing him for that. Note that Price has posted a 4.70 ERA over his last three outings and has topped out at four strikeouts in seven of his eight starts this season - clearly a shell of his former self. While he's pitched well in his career against Philadelphia, he hasn't faced the Phils since 2018. Here, he'll be pitching on just four days' rest, noting the last time he did that he allowed three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in a 9-6 loss to the lowly Rockies. The Dodgers bullpen will likely get plenty of work with Price averaging just a shade over four innings per start on the road this season. That relief corps has struggled a bit on the road this season, posting a 3.78 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 13 saves converted and 10 blown (entering last night's action). Kyle Gibson will get his third start as a member of the Phillies and will pitch on just four days' rest for the second straight outing. While he's pitched well in his last two outings, those came against the Pirates and Mets. He'll be taking a step up in class here, noting that he was tagged for five earned runs including three home runs over just five innings in his last start against the Dodgers last August. Behind Gibson is a Phillies bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.80 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with 14 saves converted and nine blown at home this season. Finally, I'll note that weather conditions are expected to favor the hitters on Wednesday (as if often the case this time of year in Philadelphia) with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out to right-center field. Take the over (10*). |
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08-10-21 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Astros had a tough time in a four-game series against the Twins from Thursday-Sunday, scoring only 16 runs in dropping three of four contests. Perhaps that letdown was to be expected after a tough road trip that took them through Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles, during which they enjoyed plenty of offensive success. Following a much-needed off day on Monday, I expect them to take their frustrations out on the Rockies on Tuesday, helping this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Jon Gray will get the start for the visiting Rockies. He's quite simply been a different pitcher on the road compared to at home this season, recording a 4.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in five of his nine outings. Here, he's in a bit of a tough spot as he makes his fourth start since July 25th. We saw some signs of wear in his most recent start as he was tagged for eight hits in six innings - his highest hit total allowed since May 17th. Gray has had previous success against the Astros but has never faced them here in Houston. Behind Gray is an awful Rockies bullpen that has posted a collective 5.25 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with only eight saves converted and eight blown on the road this season. Over their last seven games they've recorded an ERA north of six. Jake Odorizzi will look to right the ship as he takes the ball for the Astros. He allowed a whopping four home runs in his most recent start and has been tagged for eight long balls in total in his last four outings. The 'over' has cashed in four of his six home starts as he's recorded a 5.56 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. While I do think he can turn things around to a certain extent in this start, it's highly unlikely that he'll shut the Rockies offense down completely. Despite Colorado's miserable road record this season, it has still managed to average north of three runs per game away from Coors Field and I believe that might be all we need from them to help this one 'over' the total. The Astros have a fine bullpen but I will point out that for whatever reason they've struggled in interleague play, posting a collective 6.05 ERA and 1.77 WHIP, albeit with a small sample size of only 44 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*). |
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08-10-21 | Brewers v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. With ideal hitting conditions at Wrigley Field on Tuesday night (wind is expected to be blowing out to center field) I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Brewers and Cubs. Aaron Ashby will get his second start of the season for Milwaukee. His first came against Chicago as well and it didn't go swimmingly. Ashby was tagged for seven runs, four of them earned, and didn't manage to get out of the first inning. While it's tough to envision this start going any worse, it is certainly worth noting that the Cubs have been a better offensive club both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. While they're certainly not the same team they were pre-deadline, I still believe they're capable of a breakout offensive performance here and will certainly be eager to take their frustrations out on the Brewers pitching staff after facing a tough slate of starters in recent days. Behind Ashby is a Brewers bullpen that enters Tuesday's action sporting a collective 5.54 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over their last seven games with three saves converted and three blown. They've only managed to convert 11-of-20 save opportunities on the road this season. Alec Mills will counter for Chicago. After a strong start to the season he's wobbled a little lately, allowing 17 hits in 12 innings over his last two starts. Note that Mills has allowed a home run in each of his last three outings here at Wrigley Field and again, with ideal hitting conditions on Tuesday we could certainly see Mills fall victim to a long ball or two. The Brewers will be getting their fourth look at Mills going back to last August and the lone previous time they faced him this season, they chased him after four innings but not before he gave up a pair of earned runs including a home run, walked three and didn't strike out a single batter. The Cubs bullpen, like the Brewers, has struggled lately, recording a collective 5.60 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over its last seven games. While Chicago's relief corps has been solid at home this season, we're not talking about the same group that we were before the trade deadline. Take the over (8*). |
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08-09-21 | Reds v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the Reds 'over' yesterday afternoon but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they open a road trip in Cleveland on Monday. First, it's worth noting that the wind is expected to be blowing out to right-center field in this one, ideal conditions for the bats at Progressive Field. Luis Castillo will take the ball for the Reds. While he has certainly turned things around with a terrific stretch of performances, this is by no means an ideal spot as he starts on just four days' rest for the third consecutive outing. While the Indians struggled against Castillo in their first look at him back in 2019, they've figured him out since, scoring seven earned runs in just nine innings against him since last season, including a 9-2 victory here in Cleveland back in May. Behind Castillo is a Reds bullpen that really struggled in night games this season, posting a collective 5.45 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with 19 saves converted and 16 blown. Sam Hentges will get a spot start for the Indians. He's yet to find much success at the big league level and the jury is still out as to whether he's capable of rounding into a major league starter. In three home starts this season, the left-hander has recorded an ugly 9.31 ERA and 2.38 WHIP. That's despite tossing 4 2/3 shutout innings here in his big league debut back in mid-May. Hentges is averaging just under 3 2/3 innings per start and now faces a Reds club that has averaged a whopping seven runs per game over the last week. While the Indians bullpen has been solid this season, it has struggled in interleague play, recording a collective 4.92 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with only three saves converted and four blown in 56 2/3 innings of work. Take the over (10*). |
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08-08-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. This has been a high-scoring series all the way with the first three games totaling 11, 10 and 14 runs. I expect more of the same on Sunday afternoon. Bryse Wilson will get a third straight turn in the rotation for the Pirates. He's held up alright over his last couple of outings, allowing only one earned run in eight innings. However, he's struck out only two while walking three so it's not as if he's really fooling anyone. In three daytime starts this season he owns a 5.52 ERA and 1.43 WHIP and faces a Reds club that has plated 46 runs over its last six games. With Wilson averaging just over four innings per start we should see plenty of a Pirates bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.03 ERA and 1.35 WHIP on the road (entering last night's action) and hasn't had a day off since July 26th. Tyler Mahle will counter for Cincinnati. He has struggled all season at Great American Ballpark, posting a 6.18 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in eight of his 10 starts. With Mahle averaging just a shade over five innings per start at home the Reds bullpen, which has recorded a collective 5.88 ERA and 1.44 WHIP here in Cincinnati (entering last night's action) should be pressed into action once again. Take the over (6*). |
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08-07-21 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the first five innings 'over' in Mariners starter Chris Flexen's most recent outing. He actually pitched well in that game, allowing only two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work against the Rays. Road success hasn't been the norm for Flexen this season, however, as he's posted a 5.44 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in eight starts away from home. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 in his eight previous road starts. Behind Flexen is a Mariners bullpen that has already coughed up the first two games in this series and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.85 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with 15 saves converted and 13 blown away from home this season. With Flexen averaging just 5.6 innings per start on the road this season, we should see plenty of the M's relief corps today. Andrew Heaney will counter for New York. His Yankees debut did not go well at all as he was lit up for four home runs (all four were solo shots so the damage could have been worse) in just four innings of work against the Orioles. Now he makes a second straight start on just four days' rest and faces a familiar Mariners lineup (from his days with the Angels in the A.L. West) that has torched him for eight earned runs in just 7 1/3 innings this season. Heaney didn't issue a walk in his last start but command has been an issue for the left-hander. After giving up those four home runs last time out, look for him to try to be a little too perfect today and that could lead to plenty of Mariners base-runners. With the Yankees having not had a day off since July 26th, their bullpen comes in overworked. Keep in mind, this is a bullpen that has posted a 3.85 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with only 11 saves converted and eight blown at home (entering last night's action), with that ERA rising to 4.50 in day games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-05-21 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair on Thursday night in Chicago. Rookie Daniel Lynch gets the nod for the Royals. He's pitched reasonably well since returning to the big leagues in July but we're talking about a small sample size of just two starts. He's recorded an ugly 46.3% hard-hit ball percentage this season, more than 7% higher than the MLB average. That's not to mention his 30% line drive percentage - also around 7% north of the MLB average. The White Sox will be in bounce-back mode on Thursday and get their second look at Lynch this season after chasing him after scoring a whopping eight earned runs in just 2/3 of an inning back in early May. Behind Lynch is a Royals bullpen that has posted a 5.19 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the road this season. Veteran Dallas Keuchel will take the ball for the White Sox. He'll be pitching on just four days' rest for the second straight start. The last time he did that he allowed six runs, three of them earned, and lasted only 2 2/3 innings against the Astros back in June. He enters this start having been blasted for six home runs over his last two outings, including three in a start against these same Royals last week. In nine starts against division opponents this season, Keuchel has posted a 6.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in seven of those games. The White Sox bullpen has logged just 342 innings this season so should be holding up well at this stage of the season. However, they've managed to convert just one save while blowing three in the last seven games alone and check in with a less than impressive 4.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 15 saves converted and 11 blown at home this season. Take the over (7*). |
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Sean Murphy MLB Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-09-22 | Phillies v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
05-09-22 | Rays v. Angels OVER 7.5 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
05-07-22 | Blue Jays v. Guardians UNDER 6.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
05-06-22 | Cardinals v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
05-02-22 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 7.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
05-01-22 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
05-01-22 | Mariners v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 7-3 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
04-29-22 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 7 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
04-26-22 | Guardians v. Angels OVER 8 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
04-22-22 | Rangers v. A's OVER 7.5 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
04-22-22 | Royals v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
04-21-22 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
04-21-22 | Giants v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
04-20-22 | Twins v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
04-20-22 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 1-5 | Win | 105 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
04-19-22 | Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
04-18-22 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
04-16-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
04-16-22 | Braves v. Padres OVER 8.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
04-15-22 | Rays v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
04-15-22 | A's v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
04-15-22 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
04-15-22 | Twins v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
04-14-22 | Nationals v. Pirates OVER 9 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
04-12-22 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 10 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
04-10-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
04-09-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
04-08-22 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
04-08-22 | Mariners v. Twins OVER 8 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
04-07-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 34 h 7 m | Show |
10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 2-11 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 9-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 6.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 33 h 38 m | Show | |
10-12-21 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
09-29-21 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
09-25-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 10.5 | 8-5 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
09-22-21 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
09-21-21 | Braves v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
09-21-21 | Twins v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
09-20-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
09-18-21 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
09-14-21 | Padres v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
09-14-21 | Cubs v. Phillies OVER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
09-13-21 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 10 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
09-12-21 | Rockies v. Phillies OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
09-09-21 | Nationals v. Braves OVER 9 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
09-08-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
09-07-21 | Mets v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
09-06-21 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
09-06-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
09-05-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
09-04-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
09-03-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 9 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
09-03-21 | Phillies v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
09-03-21 | Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
09-03-21 | Mets v. Nationals OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
09-03-21 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
09-01-21 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
08-29-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
08-25-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
08-25-21 | Rays v. Phillies OVER 8 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
08-25-21 | Tigers v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
08-24-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
08-24-21 | Angels v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | Top | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
08-23-21 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
08-22-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
08-21-21 | Royals v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
08-20-21 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
08-19-21 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
08-18-21 | Angels v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
08-18-21 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
08-17-21 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
08-17-21 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
08-17-21 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 12 | 3-7 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
08-16-21 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
08-16-21 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
08-16-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
08-15-21 | Dodgers v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 14-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
08-14-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
08-13-21 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
08-13-21 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 6-8 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
08-13-21 | Reds v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
08-12-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
08-12-21 | Blue Jays v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
08-11-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
08-11-21 | Brewers v. Cubs OVER 10 | 10-0 | Push | 0 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
08-11-21 | Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
08-10-21 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
08-10-21 | Brewers v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
08-09-21 | Reds v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
08-08-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
08-07-21 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
08-05-21 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show |