Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-22-16 | TCU v. West Virginia OVER 65 | 10-34 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday Afternoon Total Dominator. My selection is on the ‘over’ between TCU and West Virginia at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’m anticipating a shootout as the Horned Frogs and Mountaineers do battle in Morgantown on Saturday afternoon. TCU has long been known for its dominant defense but this year we’ve seen the offense step into the spotlight. The Horned Frogs started off the season by scoring 138 points in their first three games and only once have they been held to fewer than 33 points. That happened last week as they were nearly upset on the road against a bad Kansas squad, ultimately winning by a single point as a four-touchdown favorite. I’m confident we’ll see TCU return to form on offense this Saturday, as it will need to against a much tougher challenge. West Virginia rolled to a 48-17 win at Texas Tech last Saturday (we won with the ‘under’ in that game). The Mountaineers remain undefeated on the season but have benefited from playing four of their first five games at home. The WVU defense has held up reasonably well but it’s not as if it has faced a monumental challenge in terms of schedule. Keep in mind, the Mountaineers did allow 32 points against BYU in perhaps their toughest test to date. They come into this one having given up just 33 points in their last two contests but I believe they’ll have their hands full against a Frogs offense that can beat you through the air or on the ground. Take the over (10*). |
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10-22-16 | Colorado v. Stanford -1 | 10-5 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday Afternoon Pac-12 Dominator. My selection is on Stanford minus the points over Colorado at 3 pm et on Saturday. Everyone seems to be down on the Cardinal this season and while it has certainly struggled at times, particularly on the offensive side of the football, I believe it is poised for a breakout performance on Saturday against Colorado. The Buffaloes are off to a strong 5-2 start this season and fresh off a 40-16 blowout win over Arizona State last Saturday. That was a much-needed victory following a tough road loss at USC the previous week. I’m still not entirely sold on the Buffaloes, even after failing to cover fading them the last two weeks. Last week’s game was essentially served up to them on a silver platter as ASU QB Manny Wilkins was extremely shaky and out of sync with the offense after missing time due to injury. Colorado has one road win to its credit this season, but that came against an Oregon squad that has fallen hard here in 2016. Last week’s win may have been Colorado’s most impressive of the season so far but I’m not anticipating a proper encore performance this Saturday as it heads to The Farm. Take Stanford (10*). |
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10-22-16 | Texas v. Kansas State +1.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show | |
CFB High Noon ATS Rout. My selection is on Kansas State plus the points over Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday. Most bettors were pretty down on the Longhorns last week, despite the fact that they were laying 17 points in a very winnable game against Iowa State. Texas did go on to crush the Cyclones by three touchdowns in that game, even after a slow start. I came close to putting the Longhorns on my card but ultimately decided against it last week. This week I’ll go ahead and fade them as they head to Manhattan to challenge the Wildcats. Kansas State suffered an expected blowout loss on the road against Oklahoma last week but that came on the heels of a solid win over Texas Tech the last time they played on this field two weeks ago. Note that the Wildcats are a perfect 3-0 at home this season. The Wildcats have essentially won and lost the games they should on their way to an even 3-3 record so far this season. As for Texas, it has yet to post a road win, although it did come close at Oklahoma. I’m just not convinced this line has moved in the right direction so I’ll back the Wildcats at home. Take Kansas State (10*). |
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10-21-16 | Oregon v. California UNDER 89 | 49-52 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and California at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We won supporting the 'over' in games involving Cal earlier this season - in fact, each of the Bears first four games went 'over' the total. However, they've posted a 1-1 o/u mark over their last two contests, with their most recent game - an 'over' result - buoyed by overtime. Oregon is off to a truly disappointing 2-4 start, including four consecutive losses entering this game. The Ducks have had an extra week off between games and I'm confident we'll see them turn in an inspired effort on Friday. Keep in mind, this is a team that allowed 70 points in an embarrassing loss at home against Washington last time out. Cal has proven capable of playing some defense this season. Remember, two games back the Bears held a quality Utah squad to only 23 points in a victory. Having lost seven straight meetings against Oregon, the Bears will certainly have their guard up in this one. Two of the last three meetings in this series have played 'under' the total. The game that went 'over' reached a whopping 100 points but also featured two current NFL quarterbacks in Marcus Mariota and Jared Goff. Cal owns the slightly better record in this matchup but both teams have been rather flaky in the early going this season. Both teams are capable of scoring in bunches and we could very well see a shootout on Friday night. But I simply feel this total has been set too high given the inconsistencies we've seen from both squads. Both teams are loaded with athletes, not only offensively, but defensively as well. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-16 | BYU v. Boise State -6.5 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
CFB Thursday Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Boise State minus the points over BYU at 10:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with Boise State on Thursday night. BYU is coming off back-to-back impressive wins on the road against Michigan State and at home against Mississippi State. I'm not convinced the Cougars can make it three in a row here, however. In fact, I see them suffering a letdown and falling well short against the Broncos. Boise State is quietly off to a perfect 6-0 start and continues to fly well beneath most bettors' radar thanks in large part to its ugly 2-4 ATS mark. The Broncos are coming off a less than impressive 28-23 home win as a four-touchdown home favorite against Colorado State last time out. Perhaps they were looking ahead to this big Thursday night matchup. It's easy to forget that this is a Boise State squad that enjoyed a fine campaign last year, capped off by a 55-7 dismantling of Northern Illinois in Bowl season. The Broncos have picked up where they left off in 2016 and I look for them to give BYU QB Taysom Hill a hard time all night on Thursday, while the offense takes care of the rest in a lopsided victory. Take Boise State (10*). |
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10-20-16 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 46 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 35 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Green Bay at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Green Bay on Thursday night. We've heard a lot of talk this week about just how good Bears QB Brian Hoyer has been in place of an injured Jay Cutler. Yes, Hoyer has done well to throw for 300+ yards in four consecutive games since taking over but the fact is, Chicago doesn't have many points to show for it, and certainly doesn't have many wins - only one on the campaign so far. Here, most expect Hoyer to light up an undermanned Packers defense that is dealing with a number of key injuries, but I'm not so easily convinced. Green Bay still has an excellent front seven, not to mention a strong tandem of Morgan Burnett and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix at safety. Look for the Packers young fill-in corners to step up in this matchup as well, knowing a victory is of the utmost importance following last week's ugly loss to Dallas. Offensively, something just doesn't seem right with the Packers. Jordy Nelson is back but doesn't look like the same dominant force he was two years ago. Randall Cobb is banged-up and still hasn't regained his 2014 form either. Meanwhile, the backfield has been ravaged by injuries, forcing the Pack to bring in former Chief Knile Davis this week. The 'under' is now 14-6 in the Packers last 20 games overall, including a 3-2 mark so far this season. The Bears have yet to post consecutive 'under' results this season, but off Sunday's low-scoring 17-16 setback at home against the Jaguars, I look for that to happen here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-17-16 | Jets v. Cardinals -7.5 | 3-28 | Win | 102 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over New York at 8:30 pm et on Monday. We've kept a close eye on the Cardinals over the last couple of weeks, first losing with them at home against the Rams before backing them again in a blowout victory over the 49ers in San Francisco one week ago Thursday. I believe they're worthy of the lofty pointspread here and I'll back them against the reeling Jets on Monday night. Arizona did a lot of things well in last week's win. One thing it didn't do well, however, was throw the football. Drew Stanton was shaky, ultimately completing only 11-of-28 passes for 124 yards. They'll get a big upgrade at that position on Monday as Carson Palmer returns after suffering a concussion two weeks ago. The Jets are dealing with a number of key injuries right now and as much as I like the team as a whole, not to mention head coach Bowles, I simply can't back them here. Keep in mind, we did win with the Jets back in Week 2 when they turned in their best performance of the season in Buffalo. The Cards were embarrassed by their effort in their most recent home game - a 17-13 loss to the Rams two weeks ago. Look for them to make amends here, as they turn in one of their best performances of the season and roll past the Jets. Take Arizona (10*). |
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10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans OVER 48 | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
10* NFL Sunday Night Total Dominator. My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Houston at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. We're looking at a high total in this matchup given how inconsistent these two teams have been this season but I'm still willing to play the 'over'. The Colts are coming off a much needed win last week against the Bears and despite how poorly they've played, they're just a game back of the AFC South leading Texans. As much as they would probably prefer not to get involved in another shootout, I'm not sure it's something they can avoid given their personnel at hand. Note that the 'over' has cashed in four of the Colts first five games this season. Houston was a no show last Sunday in Minnesota but should respond favorably in this matchup. Despite scoring just a combined 40 points in their last two games, the 'over' is still 2-0 in the Texans last two contests. I don't expect either offense to face much resistance in this matchup. Last year's two meetings between these two teams were relatively low-scoring but that only helps our cause with a reasonable total here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-16-16 | Falcons v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
10* NFC Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Atlanta at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Seahawks on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta is off to a somewhat surprising 4-1 start to the season but I believe we'll see it run into a roadblock in this matchup. The Falcons have reeled off four straight wins since opening the season with a tough home loss to the division rival Bucs. Last week they took down the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos, on the road no less, but it's going to be tough for them to turn the trick again as they stay on the road to face the Seahawks. Seattle was dominant in back-to-back wins prior to its bye week. I don't think that bye week will send it off course, however. This is a team that was dealing with some nicks and bruises and should be in better shape coming off the bye. We've seen the Falcons play their best football already this season. I'm not sure we've seen Seattle's best, however. The Falcons will certainly draw their full attention this week and I'm confident Seattle will cover the reasonable pointspread thanks to a strong offensive showing. Take Seattle (10*). |
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10-16-16 | Chiefs -1 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Chiefs as they head into this critical early season division showdown off of their bye week. I've been high on the Raiders this season and we've kept a close eye on them to be sure, most recently cashing a ticket fading them with the Falcons back in Week 2. I won't hesitate to fade them again on Sunday as they come in off three consecutive wins. The Chiefs were flat out embarrassed in their last game, suffering a blowout loss in primetime against Pittsburgh on the road. Prior to that they had turned in their most complete performance of the young campaign as they rolled to a 24-3 home win over the Jets. Note that Kansas City has taken three straight meetings in this series. The last time Oakland defeated Kansas City it checked in as a 7.5-point home underdog back in 2014. We're not seeing anything comparable to that line here, and rightfully so as the Raiders have closed the gap between these two AFC West rivals. With that being said, the Chiefs are expected to get RB Jamaal Charles back on the field and I believe he gives the offense a much-needed boost. The defense needs no further motivation following that ugly loss in Pittsburgh. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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10-16-16 | Bengals v. Patriots -7 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
10* NFL Sunday Afternoon ATS Rout. My selection is on New England minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Patriots on Sunday. The Bengals are in free-fall mode right now. The sky isn't exactly falling as they're just a win away from climbing back to the .500 mark, but they were thoroughly dominated in Dallas last Sunday and I certainly don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot on the road against a fired up Patriots squad. New England cruised past Cleveland last week as Tom Brady returned to the field following his suspension. Obviously, the Pats are scary good on offense with the TE duo of Martellus Bennett and Rob Gronkowski essentially uncoverable. Add in breakout WR Chris Hogan and veteran Julian Edelman, not to mention a healthy stable of backs and this is a seriously tough offense to slow down, let alone stop. Defensively, I have faith in the Pats. They didn't turn in their best effort last Sunday against the Browns, but they were good enough to be sure. Bill Bellichick has made a career of taking away opponents' best weapons and that should be the case again this week as New England keys on A.J. Green. This has the makings of one of the week's most entertaining games, but I feel the Patriots will ultimately pull away as the game progresses. We're being asked to lay a reasonable number here. Take New England (10*). |
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10-15-16 | Arizona State +11 v. Colorado | 16-40 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
10* CFB Saturday Night Pac-12 Dominator. My selection is on Arizona State plus the points over Colorado at 8 pm et on Saturday. While Colorado is off to a strong start this season, I'm not sure it will bounce back strong off last week's setback on the road against USC. The Buffaloes had an awful time trying to secure victories in Pac-12 action last season. In fact, they won only once, a narrow victory over Oregon State at home as a small underdog. They're in a much different position this year as they're now one of the hunted teams in the conference, so to speak. We deserved a better fate with USC last week as JuJu Smith-Schuster essentially took a knee rather than going in for the spread-covering touchdown in the game's final minutes against Colorado. Now Colorado goes from an underdog role against USC to a big favorite role against Arizona State. The Sun Devils are coming off an encouraging 23-20 home win over UCLA - a much-needed 'W' following a blowout loss against aforementioned USC (we won with the Trojans in that game). Note that ASU is a perfect 7-0 against Colorado since 2006 and each and every victory has come in blowout fashion. The oddsmakers and betting majority are believers in Colorado. I'm not so easily convinced. Take Arizona State (10*). |
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10-15-16 | Virginia Tech v. Syracuse +20 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
10* CFB Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Syracuse plus the points over Virginia Tech at 3:45 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Orange on Saturday. Virginia Tech has looked unstoppable over its last three games, delivering three straight blowout wins, culminating with last week's 34-3 rout of North Carolina. I don't expect the Hokies to cruise to victory on Saturday, however. Syracuse has won just twice in six tries this season and one of those victories came against an FCS opponent. Coming off an ugly 28-9 loss at Wake Forest, I'm confident we'll see the Orange respond with a strong performance back at home. It certainly won't be difficult for the Orange to get up for this matchup with the Hokies. This will be their first meeting since way back in 2003. The Orange haven't owned much of a home field edge at the Carrier Dome over the years but this is a spot where I believe they can catch the Hokies looking ahead. We're being given a generous pointspread to work with, largely due to Virginia Tech's stunning blowout win last week. Take Syracuse (10*). |
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10-15-16 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech UNDER 85 | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 36 m | Show | |
Early *10* CFB High Noon Total Dominator. My selection is on the 'under' between West Virginia and Texas Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Lubbock on Saturday afternoon. West Virginia is coming off a bit of a slugfest, pulling out a 17-16 win over Kansas State two weeks ago. Coming off its bye week, I'm confident we'll see WVU put forth another solid defensive effort on Saturday, knowing full well it can ill afford to get involved in a shootout here. I have to think it's time for the Red Raiders to say 'enough is enough' defensively. They've been getting lit up all season and are fresh off a tough 44-38 road loss to Kansas State last week. Keep in mind, just two weeks ago, Texas Tech did hold Kansas to only 19 points in a blowout win. So they're capable of holding their own. I see this as a favorable matchup. The 'under' is 3-1 in four meetings between these two teams since West Virginia joined the Big 12. The only game that surpassed the total over that stretch still reached only 64 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-15-16 | NC State v. Clemson -17.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
Early 10* CFB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Clemson minus the points over N.C. State at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Tigers on Saturday. Clemson is rolling right now, off to a perfect 6-0 start to the season, and fresh off four consecutive ATS wins. I don't see N.C. State standing in its way on Saturday afternoon. We missed the mark fading the Wolfpack last week as they got past Notre Dame 10-3 in a sloppy affair. I won't hesitate to go back to the well fading them here, however. N.C. State enters this game off three straight wins but it caught Notre Dame at the right time last week and its two previous victories came in big favorite roles against Old Dominion and Wake Forest. Here, the Wolfpack will be hitting the road for the first time in four weeks. Clemson has taken four straight meetings in this series and while it has only managed to split those four contests ATS, all four wins have come by double-digits. The last time these two met on this field, Clemson rolled to a 41-0 win two years ago. Take Clemson (10*). |
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10-14-16 | Mississippi State +7.5 v. BYU | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over BYU at 10:15 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the points with the Bulldogs on Friday night as they head to Provo to challenge the Cougars. Mississippi State is coming off an ugly home loss against Auburn last week but I don't believe it will have any trouble getting up for this one on Friday night. The Bulldogs have been wildly inconsistent this season, beating down South Carolina (we won with Miss. St. in that game), hanging in on the road against LSU (losing 23-20) and putting up 47 points in a win over UMass, but also getting upset at home against South Alabama. BYU is off to a modest 3-3 start but is fresh off a huge road win over Michigan State. Much like the Bulldogs, the Cougars have been inconsistent. Just two weeks ago they needed to score 55 points to secure a narrow two-point home win over Toledo. While I'm not calling for the outright win from the Bulldogs here, I do believe it's within the realm of possibility and will take all the points I can get. Take Mississippi State (10*). |
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10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 45.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show | |
10* NFL Thursday Night Total Dominator. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and San Diego at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a much higher posted total than we saw the last time these two teams met back in Week 17 last season, but it's not warranted in my opinion. The Broncos are coming off their first loss of the season, a game in which they didn't play particularly well defensively, giving up a touchdown on Atlanta's opening drive and never really getting back in the game. Here, I expect to see a positive response against a Chargers squad that has to feel frustrated at this point. San Diego has actually hung in there pretty well despite all of the injuries it has dealt with. The offense has led the way as the Chargers have put 30+ points on the board in three of their last four games. Keep in mind, they haven't exactly faced the best of the best in terms of defenses over that stretch, lining up against the Jags, Colts, Saints and Raiders. I think the Chargers defense deserves a little more respect than it is getting, noting that the unit was buoyed by the presence of highly-touted draft pick Joey Bosa last Sunday. Bosa recorded two sacks in the loss to the Raiders, and the Chargers did hold QB Derek Carr to just 25 completions on 40 pass attempts. They'll face a more run-heavy attack against the Broncos on Thursday night and I believe that serves them well. I don't believe the Broncos are going to be the offensive juggernaut they looked like through the first month of the season. Off back-to-back 'under' results, I'm looking for more of the same on Thursday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-10-16 | Bucs v. Panthers -5.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
My selection is on Carolina minus the points over Tampa Bay at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the Panthers minus the points, even without Cam Newton on the field on Monday night. Both of these teams check in with 1-3 overall records but it's the Panthers that are better positioned to bounce back as far as I'm concerned. Derek Anderson will take over under center for an ailing Cam Newton and I'm confident that he can turn in a solid performance against a banged-up Bucs defense. It's not as if the cupboard is bare for the Panthers offensively with Newton on the sidelines. They still have a capable backfield and a loaded WR and TE corps. The Bucs got put in their place by a Broncos squad that perhaps isn't quite as dominant as they had appeared previously last week. Tampa's lone win this season came back in Week 1 when it delivered a near perfect offensive performance on the road against the Falcons. As much as I like the duo of QB Jameis Winston and WR Mike Evans, I don't have a lot of faith in the Bucs offense as a whole. Look for the Panthers aggressive defense to clamp down on Monday night. Carolina has run into a really tough schedule in the early going this season but catches a bit of a break here. Note that the Panthers are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS over the last six meetings in this series. Take Carolina (10*). |
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10-09-16 | Bengals v. Cowboys UNDER 45 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Dallas on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'under' in the Bengals most recent game, an easy 22-7 rout of the Dolphins last Thursday night. I don't see any reason not to go right back to the well with the same play here. The Bengals got off to a slow start this season but their defense has never been a big issue. That defense should hold up well against an undermanned Cowboys offense that is relying heavily on a pair of rookies in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense has come along way going back over the last couple of seasons. Last week we saw a signature performance from this unit in San Francisco and I'm confident they'll come to play against the Bengals as well. These two teams last met four years ago, when the Cowboys prevailed by a 20-19 score in Cincinnati. The setting changes this time around but I believe we see a similar result from a totals perspective. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-16 | Texans v. Vikings -6.5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings aren't going to run the table this season and most are calling this a big early season showdown against the 3-1 Texans. But I'm not a believer in Houston and I don't expect the Vikings to suffer any sort of letdown here off a convincing Monday night win over the Giants. Houston managed to pull out a 27-20 win over Tennessee at home last Sunday, but that had more to do with Titans miscues than anything else. Remember, just two weeks ago the Texans were routed 27-0 in New England. The Vikings have it all working right now and while they may be undermanned offensively with WR Stefon Diggs not expected to play, this is still a team that can put points on the board on both sides of the football. Minnesota QB Sam Bradford has developed nice chemistry with his underrated receiving corps, not to mention TE Kyle Rudolph. Even with Adrian Peterson out of action, the ground game continues to churn along. I simply feel that one of these teams are for real while the other is a pretender so to speak. The Vikings have taken on a 'next man up' philosophy this season and I'm confident they'll remain undefeated on their home turf on Sunday. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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10-09-16 | Titans v. Dolphins OVER 43 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Miami on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark with the Titans last week in Houston as they simply couldn't get enough stops and gave up a big punt return touchdown en route to a seven-point loss. I certainly didn't come away impressed by the Tennessee defense in that game, even if it did manage to limit the Texans offensive unit to only 20 points. Now it goes up against a Miami squad that will likely start slinging the football all over the field with the running game simply not working. The Dolphins should be able to have some success through the air with the trio of Stills, Landry and Parker. Last week they were completely shut down by a quality Bengals defense but an easier test awaits this Sunday. Offensively, I believe the Titans are far better than they have shown so far this season. Marcus Mariota was shaky last week but I'm confident he'll bounce back in this spot. I'm also confident that the Titans ground game can find some running room against an aggressive Dolphins front line. We won with the 'under' in the Fins loss in Cincinnati last week but I won't hesitate to switch gears here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-16 | Washington v. Oregon +9 | 70-21 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon plus the points over Washington at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. It's funny how much things can change in just a couple of weeks. Two games back Oregon hosted Colorado and bettors lined up to back the Ducks at a 2-1 clip, laying two touchdowns no less. Now Oregon finds itself a sizable home underdog against Washington and bettors are quick to lay the points with the Huskies. That makes sense on paper as Oregon has been a big disappointment so far, dropping each of its last three games after opening the season 2-0. Meanwhile, Washington is the talk of the Pac-12, cruising to a perfect 5-0 record. However, off a blowout home win over Stanford last week I believe the Huskies could be in for a bit of a letdown in this spot. Washington will simply be looking to keep its undefeated record intact, not winning by margin in this game. Keep in mind, the Ducks have absolutely owned the Huskies over the years, covering the spread in each of the last five meetings. This isn't a typical Oregon squad but it is capable of turning in a strong effort and staying inside the number in this one. Take Oregon (10*). |
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10-08-16 | Colorado v. USC -4.5 | 17-21 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on USC minus the points over Colorado at 4 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Trojans in their rout of Arizona State last week and I'll go back to the well with them again as they host Colorado this week. The Buffaloes are off to a strong 4-1 start with their lone loss coming on the road against Michigan. There's uncertainty surrounding who they'll have at quarterback this week as Sefo Liufau recovers from an ankle suffered in that game in Michigan. I don't believe that uncertainty will serve them well, regardless who ends up starting the game. A lot of bettors seem to be down on the Trojans, stemming from back-to-back losses at Stanford and Utah earlier this season. But what team wouldn't struggle with that back-to-back road set? I liked what I saw from USC in that big bounce-back spot last week and I'm confident we'll see it build from that performance here. We won with Colorado in its season-opener against Colorado State and I certainly have a lot of respect for what the Buffaloes have accomplished so far this season. But they're not going to catch USC off guard the way they did Oregon on the road two weeks ago. The Trojans have had their way with Colorado since it joined the Pac-12 and I see that dominance continuing on Saturday. Take USC (10*). |
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10-08-16 | Army v. Duke OVER 46.5 | Top | 6-13 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Army and Duke at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' at Wallace Wade Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Army has made positive strides offensively this season, even if it didn't show it last week in an overtime loss at Buffalo. Prior to that setback, the Black Knights were a perfect 3-0, scoring 28, 31 and 66 points. Here, I look for the Black Knights to bounce back against a very beatable Duke defense. Despite allowing 35 and 34 points in their last two games, I'm not sure we've seen the worst the Blue Devils defense has to offer to be honest. There have been times this season where Duke has looked like a quality defensive squad but that was against the likes of North Carolina Central, Wake Forest and Northwestern (the latter being the most impressive performance). Duke is more than comfortable getting involved in a shootout, as we saw two weeks ago in that wild win at Notre Dame (we cashed with the Blue Devils in that one). The Blue Devils will certainly be looking to get loose again offensively after a poor performance at home against Virginia last week (we won with Virginia in that game). And the Blue Devils should be able to thrive offensively against an Army defense that has had it pretty easy this season, facing Temple, Rice, UTEP and Buffalo. Last year's matchup between these two teams totaled only 47 points as Army was a no-show offensively. We're looking at almost an identical closing total this time around but I believe it could be higher. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-16 | Maryland v. Penn State +2 | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Penn State plus the points over Maryland at 12 noon et on Saturday. We cashed a ticket (narrowly) with Penn State last week as it slipped past Minnesota in overtime in a hard-fought affair. I won't hesitate to go back to the well this week as the Nittany Lions stay home to host red hot Maryland. The Terps come into this one sporting a perfect 4-0 record. But let's keep things in perspective. Maryland has faced the likes of Howard, Florida International, Central Florida and Purdue. This will be its first true test of the season as far as I'm concerned. Penn State has sputtered its way to a 3-2 record so far this season, and has yet to deliver back-to-back victories - which it will be looking to accomplish here. Defense has surprisingly been a bit of a sore spot for the Nittany Lions but I like they way they clamped down on Minnesota when it counted last week and believe they can handle the Terps offense here. These two teams have met in each of the last two seasons with the road team winning on both occasions. I feel that aspect has been more than accounted for in this line, even if it isn't all that relevant. While Penn State hasn't impressed all that much to most bettors, I believe that only serves to give us additional value here. The fact is, Happy Valley is still a tough play for opponents to steal a win, as evidenced by the Nittany Lions' 3-0 home mark. Take Penn State (10*). |
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10-08-16 | Notre Dame +3 v. NC State | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
My selection is on Notre Dame plus the points over N.C. State at 12 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Irish on Saturday as they try to pick up a much-needed statement win at N.C. State. There's no question, the Irish are off to a disappointing start this season having gone just 2-3 through five games. However, they do come into this tough matchup off a win over Syracuse and there were certainly some positives to take away from that game. The Irish scored 50 points in the win and while they were lit up for 33 points by an average Orange offense, they did manage to tighten up in the second half, allowing only six points. That's a performance they can build off of this week. N.C. State rolls into this one off back-to-back wins, both at home and both against very beatable opponents in Old Dominion and Wake Forest. The Wolfpack will face a stiffer challenge here, and while they'll certainly be up for this showdown with a name program in the Irish, I'm not convinced they'll have enough to win the game, let alone cover the spread. There's no familiarity between these two teams as the programs haven't met since way back in 2003. We cashed a big ticket fading the Irish two weeks ago, when they were a big home favorite against Duke (they lost that game outright). Completely different situation here. Take Notre Dame (10*). |
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10-07-16 | UMass v. Old Dominion OVER 52.5 | 16-36 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UMass and Old Dominion at 8 pm et on Friday. We could be in for a shootout in this under the radar matchup on Friday night. UMass is not a good offensive team - make no mistake about that. With that being said, I do believe the door is open for the Minutemen to turn in a bit offensive showing against a weak Old Dominion defense on Friday night. The Monarchs are coming off back-to-back blowout wins but why are they laying just north of a touchdown against a very beatable opponent here? It's because of their tendency to get involved in wild, high-scoring affairs that could go either way. I do expect to see the Monarchs score early and often in this one, and I certainly do lean their way minus the points. But I'm not sure they'll be able to keep the door shut for four quarters against a UMass squad that will be hungry off back-to-back road losses, and one that has put up 59 points combined over the last two games. This will be the first ever meeting between these two programs but I'm not anticipating much of a feeling-out process. Take the over (10*). |
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10-06-16 | Cardinals -3 v. 49ers | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over San Francisco at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. Even without Carson Palmer on the field, I believe the Cardinals will have enough to get past the 49ers on Thursday night. It's not surprising that a lot of bettors are down on the Cards without Palmer. But how much worse can things really get? Some had the Cards pegged a Super Bowl team or at the very least a playoff team this year. Yet, they're off to a miserable 1-3 start - that was with Palmer at the helm. Drew Stanton represents a downgrade at the position but he won't be asked to do too much for the Cards on Thursday night. This one should be all about the Arizona defense, which got punched in the mouth by the Rams last Sunday at home. The Cards took that loss personal and I'm confident they'll respond favorably here. The 49ers played about as well as could be expected but still fell at home against Dallas last week. They haven't looked like the same team since opening the campaign with a 28-0 blindside of Los Angeles. San Francisco hasn't caught any opponent with its guard down since that season-opening blowout win and that won't change here as the Cards will certainly be out to creep back toward the .500 mark. Take Arizona (8*). |
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10-06-16 | Temple v. Memphis OVER 60.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 26 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Temple and Memphis at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Memphis on Thursday night. This matchup reminds me a little bit of a primetime opportunity the Memphis Tigers enjoyed early last season - a game they won by a 53-46 score over Cincinnati - easily eclipsing the seemingly high closing total of 70. Here, we're dealing with a much lower total, and only a slight adjustment from last year, when we saw a closing number of 57 points in this same matchup between Temple and Memphis. The Owls got the better of the Tigers on that day, winning by a 31-12 score. I'm anticipating a far more competitive affair this time around. There are a lot of new faces on the Memphis offense, namely at the quarterback position with Paxton Lynch having moved on to the Denver Broncos. But the Tigers haven't missed a beat, scoring at will through their first four games. Their balanced attack should give Temple plenty of trouble on Thursday night, but I question how many stops the Tigers can get defensively. They faced what was essentially their first real test of the season last week and gave up 48 points in a blowout loss at Ole Miss. Temple has an experienced offense that is firing on all cylinders right now, coming off back-to-back 40+ point performances. When you think of the Owls you don't generally think of offense, but this is a group that has really come around in that regard. They're well tested on the road as well, having hung in there in a close loss at Penn State earlier this season - a game in which they scored a respectable 27 points. This hasn't been a particularly high-scoring matchup in the last three meetings over the last three years, but I believe that changes here in 2016. Take the over (10*). |
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10-03-16 | Giants v. Vikings OVER 43 | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Monday. While I have a lot of respect for both of these defenses - even taking into consideration all of the injuries the Giants are dealing with on that side of the football - I simply believe this total will prove too low on Monday night. The Giants offense hasn't faced this level of challenge on the road in nearly two years. Back in 2014 they traveled to face the Seattle Seahawks and jumped out to an early lead, ultimately scoring 17 points in a 21-point loss. The offense did manage to hold its own on that day, however, and I believe we'll see a similar story unfold in Minnesota on Monday. While the Giants are thin at running back, it's not as if that position has been a focal point of the offense in recent years anyway. Despite what we saw last week, when they struggled to stretch out their lead and ultimately fell to the Redskins at home, the Giants have a terrific three-headed WR monster in OBJ, Victor Cruz and rookie Sterling Shepherd. They will take their shots against this tough Vikings defense. Minnesota has yet to really get rolling offensively, but I see plenty of positives. Sam Bradford is settling into the offense nicely and has already developed chemistry with WR Stefon Diggs. Adrian Peterson may be sidelined, but Jerick McKinnon is no slouch out of the backfield, running for over five yards per carry against a tough Panthers defense last week. Keep an eye on rookie WR Adam Thielen as well, as he has also been a favorite target of Bradford. The potential is always there for points on the board from the Vikings special teams and defense, and while that can't be properly accounted for when handicapping the total, it is worth mentioning. I believe this total belongs in the mid-40 range, and while that wouldn't appear to give us much value to work with here, the combination of hype surrounding the Vikes defense and injuries in both backfields serve to help our cause - keeping this total in check. Take the over (10*). |
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10-02-16 | Saints +3.5 v. Chargers | 35-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over San Diego at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with New Orleans on Monday night as it couldn't get nearly enough stops in an emotional loss against the Falcons. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however, as the Saints hit the road to face an injury-riddled Chargers squad. San Diego is coming off a tough loss in Indianapolis last Sunday (we won with the Colts in that game). The Chargers have held their own through three weeks but have only one victory to show for it. This certainly looks like a winnable game on paper as they welcome a winless Saints squad to town, but I don't expect a 'W' to come easy. The Saints are banged up, particularly on the defensive side of the football. But as I mentioned, the Chargers have been ravaged by injuries. They're in even rougher shape as far as I'm concerned. The Saints offense did keep it rolling against the Falcons on Monday, even with WR Willie Snead sidelined. There's a chance he'll be able to return on Sunday, but even if he can't I still like New Orleans' chances of lighting up the scoreboard. I'll back the more desperate team in this one. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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10-02-16 | Saints v. Chargers OVER 53.5 | 35-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and San Diego at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Saints loss to Atlanta on Monday night and I'll make the same play on Sunday as New Orleans heads west to take on the Chargers. Both of these teams have performed exceptionally well offensively this season and I don't see anything changing in this particular matchup. Note that both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries, and most of those lie on the defensive side of the football. The Saints had no answers for the Falcons on Monday night and while they will take a step down in class here, I'm still not sure the Chargers will be the cure for what ails them. San Diego is missing a couple of key pieces on offense in RB Danny Woodhead and WR Keenan Allen. However, the cupboard is by no means bare. The Chargers are led by a gunslinger in QB Philip Rivers and I'm confident we'll see him continue to throw downfield early and often. This is the highest total on the board this week, but it's warranted in my opinion. Look for the losing team to get into the high-20s and that should be all we need to cash our ticket. Take the over (10*). |
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10-02-16 | Rams v. Cardinals -7.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Cardinals as they aim to rebound following an ugly defeat in Buffalo last Sunday. The Rams are off to a somewhat surprising 2-1 start but I believe they're two-game winning streak ends here as they stay on the road for a second straight week, and travel back across the country following last Sunday's thrilling win in Tampa. L.A. has been getting it done with some smoke and mirrors as far as I'm concerned. QB Case Keenum completed only 14-of-26 passes in last week's 37-point outburst. RB Todd Gurley was held in check for the most part. It was WR Tavon Austin who was the star of that victory but now he's banged up with a shoulder injury. The Cardinals have been a real jekyll-and-hyde team so far this season. However, they did deliver a a 40-7 win over Tampa Bay the last time they played here at home. With this being their first division game of the campaign they'll certainly be eager to get back on track. Carson Palmer simply had an off day for the Cardinals last week. I fully expect to see him bounce back strong, helped by another big effort from RB David Johnson, on Sunday afternoon. The Cards defense will take care of the rest against a Rams offense that isn't nearly as good as it showed last week. Take Arizona (10*). |
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10-02-16 | Titans +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Titans on Sunday. Two weeks ago we cashed a big ticket with the Titans as they upset the Lions in Detroit. Last week they were taken down a notch or two in a 17-10 home loss to the Raiders. Things won't get any easier here as they travel to face a Houston squad that will be eager to bounce back following a poor showing in New England last week. I believe the Titans will be up for the challenge. Considering the Texans have taken the last four meetings in this series the Titans will certainly have motivation on their side in this one. To put it simply, I don't like laying points with an unproven quarterback like Brock Osweiler. He got the big pay day in the offseason after proving very little taking over from an injured Peyton Manning for the Broncos last season. Now the Texans are up against it with J.J. Watt sidelined and Lamar Miller looking rather ineffective out of the backfield. I'll give Tennessee an excellent shot at the outright win here. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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10-01-16 | Arizona State v. USC -10 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 32 h 39 m | Show |
My selection is on USC minus the points over Arizona State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with USC on Saturday as it aims to bounce back from consecutive losses. The Trojans looked like they were in control on the road against a strong Utah squad last week before faltering in the fourth quarter. They'll certainly be up for this matchup as they try to bounce back at home. Of course, USC will need to brings its 'A' game against an undefeated Arizona State squad. The issue I have with the Sun Devils is that they need to score so many points to prevail on any given week. Against an athletic and talented USC defense I'm not convinced they'll be able to score at will on Saturday. The USC offense has been absolutely shut down by the likes of Alabama and Stanford this season and didn't exactly light it up at Utah last week either. But this is a better unit than it has shown in my opinion. Note that USC went on the road and drilled Arizona State 42-14 just over a year ago. The Sun Devils will certainly be out for revenge here, but as we all know, that's a dish best served at home. Take USC (10*). |
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10-01-16 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -2.5 | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on West Virginia minus the points over Kansas State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Gone are the days when you could blindly back Kansas State in an underdog role and expect to turn a profit. We cashed a ticket fading the Wildcats back in the opening week of the season as they traveled west and suffered a 26-13 loss at Stanford. There was no shame in that loss against a terrific Cardinal squad but it's still worth noting that they failed to cover the spread - the lone time they've been an underdog so far this season. Going back to last season, the Wildcats are now 1-3 ATS in their last four tries as an underdog. Their one cover? It came against the same West Virginia squad they'll face on Saturday. I'm anticipating a different outcome this time though. The Mountaineers are off to a 3-0 start and while they failed to cover the number last week, it was still an impressive road win at BYU. At 8-1 over their last nine games going back to last season, West Virginia will certainly be looking to avenge that lone loss against Kansas State. In fact, West Virginia is 0-4 SU and ATS against Kansas State over the last four years. There will be no shortage of motivation for the Mountaineers here and I'm confident they'll come away victorious. Take West Virginia (10*). |
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10-01-16 | Minnesota v. Penn State -2 | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
My selection is on Penn State minus the points over Minnesota at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Nittany Lions as they host Minnesota on Saturday afternoon. Penn State is off to a disappointing start this season having split its first four games. Last week looked like a terrific step-up spot for the Nittany Lions on the road against Michigan but they fell well short in a 49-10 blowout loss. That should help fuel their fire as they prepare to take on undefeated Minnesota on Saturday. The Golden Gophers are 3-0 SU but have only managed to go 1-2 ATS. They've allowed at least 23 points in all three games and I believe they'll have a tough time containing the Penn State offense on Saturday afternoon in Happy Valley. Note that when Minnesota defeated Penn State last year it was thanks in large part to its defense as it limited the Nittany Lions to only 10 points. Prior to that matchup, Penn State had taken four straight meetings in this series and Minnesota hasn't won a game here since 2003. Outside of last week's no-show, Penn State had held its own, with its lone loss coming by just three points at Pittsburgh (we won with the Nittany Lions in that game). Look for the Nittany Lions to deliver in a big way in this matchup on Saturday. Take Penn State (10*). |
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10-01-16 | Virginia +4 v. Duke | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia plus the points over Duke at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with Duke as it stunned Notre Dame in South Bend last Saturday. I won't hesitate to switch gears here, however, as the Blue Devils host a Virginia squad that is fresh off its first win of the season, a convincing 49-35 victory over a quality Central Michigan team. As impressive as that win over Notre Dame was, this is still a flawed Blue Devils squad. It's tough to lay points with a team that has as weak of a defense as Duke, simply put. The Cavaliers have an offense that can expose the Blue Devils' weaknesses, noting that Virginia rolled to a 42-34 win over Duke in last year's meeting. With that being said, Virginia hasn't won a road game against Duke since 2006. That's one of the reasons the Blue Devils find themselves laying more than a field goal here. I'm just not sure that line is warranted. Virginia checks in 1-3 but it's not as if the Cavaliers have been playing all that poorly. Note that the Cavaliers 0-3 start came at the hands of a quality FCS squad in Richmond and then back-to-back road losses against Oregon and UConn. This is a winnable game for them, and I believe they'll see it that way as well. Take Virginia (10*). |
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09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington OVER 44.5 | Top | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and Washington at 9 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' at Husky Stadium on Friday night. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Stanford's most recent game - a 22-13 win at UCLA last Saturday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. It took a while for the Cardinal offense to get rolling against the Bruins but I do expect them to turn in a much more efficient performance in this matchup. There's no question they're still working out some kinks with a new starting quarterback. But the pieces are in place for this offense to start taking strides forward. Washington has been electric offensively and is fresh off a big 35-28 overtime win at Arizona (we won with the Wildcats ATS in that game). I don't believe the Huskies are interested in a bruising, defensive-minded affair here. Not at home. I look for them to set the tone early as they look to knock the Cardinal defense down a peg or two. This hasn't been a high-scoring series, with the 'under' cashing in five of the last seven meetings. However, that actually works in our favor here - combined with the fact that the Cardinal have seen the 'under' cash in all three of their games so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 12 m | Show |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Miami and Cincinnati at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Cincinnati on Thursday night. The Dolphins were involved in a wild 30-24 overtime affair against the Browns last week but let’s not get too carried away by that high-scoring result. Scoring 24 points in regulation time against a team the caliber of the Browns is no real accomplishment. This is still very much a ‘dink and dunk’ offense with Ryan Tannehill at the helm as far as I’m concerned. They’ll move the football at times on Thursday night but I’m not convinced they’ll put a lot of ‘7’s on the board. Defensively, the Fins gave up plenty of yardage but when it was all said and done, allowed just one offensive touchdown against the Browns last Sunday. This is still a quality defense, particularly up front, and they’ll need to bring their ‘A’ game to contend with a highly-motivated 1-2 Bengals squad on Thursday night. I don’t like the effort the Bengals have put forth on offense so far this season. It’s pretty much been A.J. Green or bust and while that can work at times, it’s not a feasible long-term strategy. They need to get RB Giovani Bernard in particular more involved, but I’m not sure the Dolphins will give them a great deal of open space on Thursday night. Cincinnati remains a stout defensive squad, even if it has shown some cracks so far this season. It's worth noting the Bengals have faced a tough schedule including matchups with Pittsburgh and Denver. Look for this game to play out just the way the Bengals like it – I’m confident we’ll see enough of a slugfest to keep this one ‘under’ the total on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-16 | Connecticut +30 v. Houston | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Houston at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the points with the Huskies on Thursday night. It's easy to forget that UConn was actually a Bowl team last season. The Huskies should be better here in 2016 but they're off to a less than impressive 2-2 start despite having played three of their first four games at home. Of course, their two losses could have gone either way as they fell by four points at Navy and a touchdown at home against Syracuse last week. It's not as if we're asking the Huskies to even keep this game remotely competitive on Thursday night. We simply need them to not get completely embarrassed. I don't believe they will. Most bettors remember Houston's rout of Cincinnati two weeks ago quite well. The Cougars followed up that blowout win with another annihilation of Texas State on the road last week. Here, Houston will simply be looking to pick up a 'w' playing on a short week, and not get caught looking ahead against a UConn squad that upended them last November. We know Houston will likely score at will in this game. The question is whether the Huskies can break through offensively. I believe they'll do enough to keep this game within a few scores. Take Connecticut (10*). |
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09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 53.5 | 45-32 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and New Orleans at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in the Big Easy on Monday night as two NFC South rivals do battle. To put it simply, I have very little faith in the Falcons defense right now. They've done absolutely nothing to instill any confidence this season, allowing a combined 59 points against the Bucs and Raiders. Things won't get any easier here as they stay on the road to face what will be a desperate Saints squad. New Orleans hung in there in a losing effort against the Giants in New York last Sunday, with its defense putting forth an admirable effort. I don't expect to see a repeat performance against a familiar foe on Monday, however. Offensively, the Saints remain loaded and remember just two weeks ago Drew Brees lit up the Raiders, guiding his team to a 34-point performance. Expect an effort more closely related to that one than the stinker the team put up against the Giants last week. The 'under' is actually 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in this series but that only serves to help our cause playing the 'over' in this particular matchup. I believe both teams are well-suited to get involved in a shootout on Monday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 45-32 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Atlanta at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the short number with the Saints on Monday night as they try to pick up their first victory of the season after back-to-back disappointing losses. I'm not as down on the Saints as some. Keep in mind, we cashed a 10* ticket with the Falcons in an underdog role in Oakland last week. I don't see this as nearly as favorable of a matchup, however. After seemingly scoring at will at home against the Raiders two weeks ago the Saints took a big step back last Sunday, struggling to put points on the board in an ugly loss to the Giants. I fully expect to see Drew Brees get back in rhythm on Monday night and lead his offense to a productive night. The Falcons have plenty of holes on both sides of the football. They do have a lot of upside as well but I'm not sure they have enough to outgun a desperate Saints squad on the road, in primetime no less, on Monday night. Keep in mind, the Saints swept this series a year ago. That included a 10-point victory here at the Superdome. I'm anticipating a similar result on Monday. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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09-25-16 | Bears v. Cowboys OVER 43.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Dallas at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Dallas on Sunday night as I believe the Bears offense will take a step forward with Jay Cutler sidelined while the Cowboys got their swagger back in last week's win in Washington. There's no reason to think we see any sort of drop-off in offensive production from the Bears. There's really nowhere to go but up with Brian Hoyer taking over under center. I do feel that the Bears have some good pieces in place on offense. Jeremy Langford is being pushed for his starting job in the backfield while the receiving corps is solid with Alshon Jeffery leading the way (he's expected to play despite a minor injury). Meanwhile, the Cowboys showed a lot of positives in last week's win in Washington with Dak Prescott and Dez Bryant getting on the same page and Ezekiel Elliott showing flashes of brilliance in his second NFL start. We're dealing with a relatively low total here, largely due to the uncertainty surrounding both offenses. I don't believe the low number is warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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09-25-16 | Chargers v. Colts -1.5 | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over San Diego at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Simply too many key injuries for the Chargers to overcome in this one. The Colts will be desperate, we know that. Indianapolis is coming off back-to-back losses to open the campaign although let's face it, last week it was up against it facing an elite squad in the Denver Broncos, on the road no less. The Colts got caught flat-footed in their home opener against Detroit but I don't expect that to be the case here. Indy will realize the importance of this contest and I fully expect to see it put forth its absolute best effort. San Diego already lost Keenan Allen for the season and now is forced to go forward without Danny Woodhead as well. I'm just not sure the Chargers defense is good enough to shoulder so much of the load when you consider the offensive will likely be hampered moving forward. The Chargers have taken the last three meetings in this series but these two teams haven't hooked up since 2013. Take Indianapolis (9*). |
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09-25-16 | Steelers v. Eagles +4 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. In a battle of 2-0 teams I'll back the Eagles at home on Sunday afternoon. I know that the Eagles have faced a light schedule so far, going up against the Browns and Bears. However, that victory in Chicago this past Monday was no gimme, noting that the oddsmakers listed the Bears as field goal favorites prior to that one. Here they'll face a tough test against an explosive Steelers offense, and defense that has been steadily improving. But I like the composure that Eagles rookie QB Carson Wentz has shown and I'm confident he can do enough to guide his squad to victory in this big matchup. Don't discredit the Eagles defense either. This unit has held its own so far this season and will be amped up for a matchup against the high-octane Steelers who have been getting plenty of hype. I don't believe there's much separating these two teams at all, certainly not enough to warrant the lofty pointspread. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 41.5 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Tampa on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark badly with the 'over' in the Rams most recent game - a big home win over the Seahawks last Sunday. L.A. couldn't get anything going offensively in that game, but it was also up against a premier defensive unit. Different story here on Sunday as the Rams head to Tampa to take on the Bucs. Tampa Bay has been involved in back-to-back relatively high-scoring affairs, however the Bucs did little to help their own cause last week in a 40-7 loss against the Cardinals. I do expect to see the Bucs bounce back offensively here as they return home for the first time this season. Don't be fooled by last week's game against a hungry Cards squad. This Bucs offense has improved with QB Jameis Winston coming into his own in the pro ranks. The Rams are a good defensive team, but not a great one. Remember, in their opener they got ran all over in a 28-0 rout at the hands of the 49ers. They were fired up last week in their first game back in L.A. but here it may be a little tougher to get up for the opposition. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-16 | Washington v. Arizona +14 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Washington at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. The home team hasn't lost a game in this series since back in 2007. Based on this pointspread you would assume that streak will be in jeopardy but I believe the Wildcats have a better shot at taking this game than the oddsmakers are giving them credit for. Washington is off to a perfect 3-0 start, but hasn't actually been challenged, having been favored by at least 25 points in each of its first three contests. Arizona checks in 0-3 ATS but has gone a perfect 2-0 over the last two weeks, and the Wildcats stay home for a third consecutive week here. There will be no shortage of motivation for the Wildcats. After all, they fell by a 49-3 score at Washington last year. The Huskies have built quite a positive reputation with the betting public thanks to their hot start. I'm just not sure the steep line is warranted in this particular situation. Take Arizona (10*). |
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09-24-16 | Stanford v. UCLA OVER 46 | 22-13 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and UCLA at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in this Pac-12 showdown on Saturday night. We're dealing with a much lower total than we saw in this matchup last season, despite the fact that last year's game totaled a whopping 91 points. That's largely due to the fact that the Stanford defense has been positively dominant this season, allowing only 39 points through three games. However, I do believe that we'll see the Bruins offense break through to some extend in this one. There's a reason UCLA is catching only a field goal here. On the flip side, I'm not sure the Bruins will be able to contain the Stanford offense for four quarters. Note that the Cardinal have scored at least 27 points in six of the last seven meetings in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-16 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -8 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Oklahoma State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Baylor has gone 0-3 ATS so far this season but that's a direct result of the Bears being favored by way too many points. Here, we're dealing with a more reasonable line, and I like Baylor to cover. The Bears have scored a whopping 133 points through three games and I don't anticipate the Cowboys standing in their way on Saturday night. Oklahoma State is coming off a big win over Pitt last week but there is still reason for concern as the Cowboys were torched for 38 points in that victory. Remember, just two weeks ago Oklahoma State fell by a field goal at home against Central Michigan. Baylor has taken three of the last four meetings in this series with its most recent two victories coming by double-digit margins. The last time the Cowboys traveled to McLane Stadium they were listed as 33-point underdogs. Take Baylor (10*). |
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09-24-16 | Duke +20.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
My selection is on Duke plus the points over Notre Dame at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Blue Devils on Saturday as they head to South Bend to challenge the Irish. Duke fell at Northwestern last week - suffering its second consecutive loss. However, keep in mind the Blue Devils were up against a desperate Northwestern squad that was playing at home and coming off back-to-back losses to open the campaign. Here, Duke will face another hungry opponent as Notre Dame has somewhat surprisingly dropped two of its first three games this season. While I do believe we'll see the Irish bounce back here, I'm not convinced they'll be able to win this one going away. Despite a tough finish to the regular season a year ago, Duke still managed to pick up the pieces and win a Bowl game. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has won just once since last November. I simply don't believe the Irish warrant being such a big favorite in this spot. Take Duke (10*). |
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09-24-16 | Penn State v. Michigan UNDER 56.5 | Top | 10-49 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Michigan at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Ann Arbor on Saturday afternoon. The 'over' is a combined 6-0 in these two teams' six games so far this season. That only serves to give us value with the 'under' in this matchup, however. Note that the last two meetings in this series have totaled just 31 and 44 points. I don't believe that Penn State is as efficient offensively as it has shown through its first three games. Note that the Nittany Lions have faced Kent State, Pitt, and Temple - not exactly three defensive powerhouses. Michigan has rolled past three very beatable opponents in Hawaii, UCF, and Colorado. The Wolverines will taking a step up in class here, and I believe they're in for a battle. We'll see some big plays in this game but the total has ultimately been set too high based on recent results. Take the under (10*). |
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09-23-16 | USC +3 v. Utah | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
My selection is on USC plus the points over Utah at 9 pm et on Friday. I'll gladly back the Trojans in an underdog role on Friday night in Utah. We won fading USC last week as the Trojans fell at Stanford. I won't hesitate to switch gears here, however. USC is off to a tough start but the Trojans have also faced a pretty tough schedule with their two losses coming against Alabama and aforementioned Stanford. I see this as an ideal bounce back spot as USC will have no trouble getting up for a matchup against undefeated Utah. The Utes are 3-0 and we missed the mark with them in their second game as they won but failed to cover in a tough battle against BYU. I simply feel the Trojans have a talent edge here. While Utah is certainly tough at home, that's been factored into this line with the Utes favored by a field goal. The home team has won the last three meetings in this series but USC is 4-1 in the last five overall. Take USC (10*). |
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09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots +1.5 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England plus the points over Houston at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Patriots as a rare home underdog on Thursday night. No need to get too carried away analyzing this matchup. I have a lot of confidence backing the Patriots as they stay home for a second straight game, and face an opponent that will draw plenty of motivation, especially with the Pats being down to their third-string quarterback. Look for New England to do an excellent job defensively, minimizing the effectiveness of elite WR DeAndre Hopkins. Lamar Miller has been good but not great out of the backfield in his first year with the Texans. Meanwhile, Brock Osweiler should struggle at times in his first road start of the season. Jacoby Brissett will start for the Pats under center and while that's a downgrade at the position to be sure, the Pats still have plenty of solid pieces around him, even if Gronk can't suit up. In what could be a grinder, I'll put my money on the Pats. Take New England (10*). |
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09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 41 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New England at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll play the 'under' in Foxborough on Thursday night. The Texans defense has held up well through two games - of course, those two games have come at home against two weak offensive squads in the Bears and Chiefs. Those performances should serve to give them a nice confidence boost, however, and it's not as if they're facing a Patriots offense that is at full strength. On the flip side of the equation, Bill Bellichick is known for his ability to have his team take away their opponent's best weapon and I expect that to hold true on Thursday as they do everything they can to minimize DeAndre Hopkins' contribution. The Texans still have other weapons but I don't have a lot of faith in QB Brock Osweiler lighting up this Patriots defense. New England gave up its share of points against Miami last week, but most of those points were scored when the game was already out of hand. The Patriots offense has been performing well but will undoubtedly take a step back with Jacoby Brissett under center. These two teams met last year in Houston and that game totaled just 33 points. I'm expecting more of the same this time around. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-16 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech UNDER 58 | Top | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Clemson and Georgia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Thursday night. I have a lot of respect for both of these programs. While I do feel the pointspread has been set just about right in this one, I can't help but feel the oddsmakers have missed the mark with the total. Both teams roll into this matchup 3-0. I do feel that if Clemson brings its 'A' game it should have little trouble brushing aside the Yellow Jackets, in particular manhandling them defensively. With that being said, Georgia Tech is unlikely to roll over. The Yellow Jackets are more than capable of churning out some long drives, even if they don't end in scores. That would certainly serve its purpose, keeping the electric Clemson offense off the field. This has been an 'over' series in recent years, with three of the last four meetings sailing over the number. However, the last time they met here, we saw just 34 total points scored in 2014. Too many long drives should help keep this one 'under' the total as well. Take the under (10*). |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | 29-14 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Philadelphia at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Eagles are certainly the popular choice in this one, and why not? After all they sailed to a 29-10 win over the Browns last week with rookie QB Carson Wentz turning in a stellar debut performance. I'm not sure we see a repeat as Wentz makes his first career road start in Chicago, however. It's not easy to back the Bears these days, but I do like the way this spot sets up. This is a team in desperate need of a jolt and here they get a manageable matchup against an Eagles squad that isn't quite as complete as it appeared in that Week 1 victory. It's worth noting that Philadelphia will be without TE Zach Ertz on Monday, a key safety valve for QB Wentz. Ertz caught six passes for 60+ yards in last week's victory. The Bears are going to need a big game from a number of key players on offense, and for the defense to hold up better than it did a week ago. I'm betting they check both of those boxes on Monday. Take Chicago (10*). |
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09-18-16 | Packers v. Vikings +2 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Green Bay at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. Everyone is quick to proclaim Green Bay as being 'back' after its Week 1 win, but I'm not so sure. First of all, the Packers never really went anywhere, but let's not get too excited by that victory against the Jaguars in Jacksonville. Yes, the Jags have some upside, but the Pack will face a much tougher challenge here against a Vikings squad that has its sights set on an NFC Championship - even with QB Teddy Bridgewater sidelined. The Vikes still have the pieces in place to get the job done and keep pace with the Packers in the NFC North all season long. They'll feed Adrian Peterson all night long on Sunday and let the defense take care of the rest. This will be a close one, I'm comfortable grabbing the points with Minnesota, even if we're not catching many. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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09-18-16 | Falcons +4.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons couldn't have looked much worse while the Raiders couldn't have looked any better in last week's respective season openers. Here I'll go against the public and back the Falcons plus the points as I feel they'll be highly-motivated, and capable of pulling off the "upset" win in the Black Hole. I'm a big fan of the Raiders this year, and I do believe there will be money to be made backing them, but we're going to have to pick our spots. This isn't one of them. The Raiders haven't had much of a home field advantage in recent years, but let's face it, their team has stunk. This is a different squad this year, but it certainly won't be able to catch the Falcons looking past it - not after last week's stunning victory in New Orleans. Atlanta has the type of offense that can give the Raiders trouble and I'm anticipating a big day from the Ryan-Jones combo. This has the makings of one of the week's more entertaining games. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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09-18-16 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 37.5 | 3-9 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring affairs last week, with neither living up to expectations offensively in those contests. I'm expecting a different story to unfold this Sunday, however, as Seattle heads to Los Angeles to face the Rams in their home opener. Russell Wilson suffered a sprained ankle in last week's narrow win over the Dolphins, so there is some concern about his health heading into this one. All indications are that he will play though, and I'm confident he'll play well against a beatable Rams defense. Meanwhile it's probably only a matter of time before Jared Goff takes over the reins under center for the Rams, but at least for this week, I look for Case Keenum to hold his spot and perform well in a bounce-back spot against the Seahawks defense. We're dealing with a very low total here, I'm not sure it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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09-18-16 | Titans +6.5 v. Lions | Top | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Titans in this one, even after that demoralizing blown opportunity against the Vikings in their home opener last week. Of course, there's a big difference between the defense the Titans faced last week and the one they'll line up against this week at Ford Field. Detroit was involved in a wild contest in Indianapolis last week and ultimately prevailed by four points, but gave up a whopping 35 points in the process. Here they'll take a step down in class against a Titans offense that still has plenty of kinks to work out, but I'm confident we'll see Tennessee hang tough. I liked them last week and missed the mark, but I won't hesitate to go back to the well at better line value here. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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09-17-16 | Texas v. California OVER 81 | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and California at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. If it wasn't evident prior to the season starting that Cal would be a big-time 'over' team this year, it certainly is now. The Golden Bears have been involved in two wild shootouts to open the season, and I'm anticipating more of the same on Saturday night as they return home to host an explosive Texas squad. This is one of the highest totals on the board this week, and likely one of the highest totals we'll see this season, but it's warranted. The Golden Bears just aren't going to have any answers for the versatile Texas offense. Last week, the Longhorns were able to shift it down a gear or two in the second half as they cruised past UTEP, but they won't be so fortunate in this one. Meanwhile, Cal hasn't missed a beat offensively with Davis Webb under center, and while the Bears will face a tough challenge against Texas' defensive front here, I'm still confident they'll find the end zone early and often. Take the over (10*). |
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09-17-16 | USC v. Stanford -8.5 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
My selection is on Stanford minus the points over USC at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'm not sure that anyone has seen quite enough of Stanford to get fully behind the Cardinal in this one. But I will. Two weeks ago we backed Stanford in its 26-13 win over Kansas State. Now coming off a bye week, I expect the Cardinal to be even sharper against a tough opponent in USC. The Trojans are coming off a blowout win over Utah State last week, which was largely expected following a tough opening week blowout loss to Alabama. Here, the Trojans will once again be in tough heading to The Farm. Stanford has had USC's number, taking the lat two meetings both SU and ATS. Look for the Cardinal to really flex their muscle defensively as they ultimately pull away for a convincing win and cover against the Trojans on Saturday. Take Stanford (10*). |
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09-17-16 | Oregon +3 v. Nebraska | 32-35 | Push | 0 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon plus the points over Nebraska at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Not to oversimplify things, but I believe it's too early in the campaign for the Oregon Ducks to suffer their first setback. That's not to say this isn't a difficult matchup. This is obviously a tough one for the Ducks - they've been installed as underdogs for a reason. But I'm confident they'll be up to the challenge. There are a lot of fresh faces at key positions for Oregon, but so far so good as it has rolled to back-to-back victories. Of course, so has Nebraska, but it has faced an equally easy road thus far. Here, playing their third consecutive home game to open the campaign, I look for the Huskers to let their guard down just enough, and get caught up in a track meet with the Ducks. Take Oregon (10*). |
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09-17-16 | Florida State v. Louisville UNDER 68 | 20-63 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida State and Louisville at 12 noon et on Saturday. This is an inflated total as far as I'm concerned, and it's not difficult to figure out why. Both the Seminoles and Cardinals have exploded out of the gates, scoring at will against overmatched opponents. I'm convinced we'll see the pace change here, as the physicality really ramps up in this key early season ACC showdown. We already know that Florida State is an elite defensive squad while the jury is still out on Louisville. Look for the Cardinals to prove themselves in that regard here, even if it doesn't turn out to be enough to secure a victory. I had this total several points lower than the number we're currently dealing with. We should have plenty of room to work with when it's all said and done on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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09-17-16 | Florida State v. Louisville | Top | 20-63 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
My selection is on Florida State over Louisville at 12 noon et on Saturday. Both of these teams have gotten off to tremendous starts, but what else would you expect? There can obviously only be one winner when the Seminoles and Cardinals square off on Saturday afternoon, and I like the visitors to prevail. Simply put, I don't believe we see the 'Noles undefeated start to the season end this early. While both teams have come roaring out of the gates, I've been a little more impressed by what FSU has accomplished, getting things started with a double-digit win over Ole Miss. Louisville has yet to truly be challenged, but it's coming here. Look for the 'Noles depth and physicality to prove to be too much. Take Florida State (10*). |
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09-16-16 | Arkansas State v. Utah State UNDER 55.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas State and Utah State at 9 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams got steamrolled last week as both ran into extremely tough matchups with Arkansas State losing at Auburn and Utah State falling at USC. Neither defense is as bad as it showed a week ago, at least in my opinion. I'm not sure either wants to get involved in a shootout here, as neither offense is well-equipped to be quite honest. Arkansas State does have some upside with Pitt transfer Chad Voytik at quarterback while Utah State is moving on from the Chuckie Keeton era. The Aggies will pound away with RB DeVante Mays, but that's provided he can even start as he's dealing with an ankle injury. After scoring just 24 points through two games Arkansas State will be eager to get back on track offensively - I'm just not sure this is the matchup to do that. Take the under (10*) |
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09-15-16 | Jets -1 v. Bills | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Buffalo at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Jets as they travel to Buffalo for an early season division showdown on Thursday night. New York battled but ultimately fell just short in a 23-22 loss to the Bengals last Sunday. The Jets offense looked disjointed in that game, although the Bengals defense had a lot to do with that. Here, New York will take a step down in class against the Bills defense. Speaking of shaky offensive performances, the Bills turned in a real stinker in Buffalo, scoring just a single touchdown in a losing effort. I honestly believe that there are some major changes necessary, and likely coming in Buffalo as the season progresses. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman just doesn't seem to be able to get the most out of the talent he has on hand, and I'm not sure anything will change in the Bills home opener on Thursday night. I'll get behind what I believe is the better all-around team in this one. Take New York (10*). |
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09-15-16 | Houston v. Cincinnati +7.5 | 40-16 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Houston at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Bearcats on Thursday night as they host the sixth-ranked Cougars Nippert Stadium. Obviously Houston has a ton of weapons on offense, but QB Ward Jr. and RB Catalon are both banged up and likely playing at less than 100%. Cincinnati got off to a rather slow start, defeating Tennessee-Martin by a 28-7 score in its home opener. The Bearcats came out stronger last week, defeating Purdue by a 38-20 score on the road. I look for them to build off of that performance here. This is a team that has the pieces in place to get better each and every week and this is obviously a big step-up spot. The Cougars will have a little more pressure on their shoulders here, especially after upsetting Oklahoma in their opener as nearly two-touchdown underdogs. I'm anticipating a close game here. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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09-12-16 | Rams -2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 0-28 | Loss | -113 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over San Francisco at 10:20 pm et on Monday. Not to oversimplify things here, but I really think we're getting the lesser of two evils in the Rams on Monday night. There's a good chance the 49ers turn out to be one of the league's weakest teams this season so I'll gladly fade them here in Week 1 before the lines get out of hand. The Rams aren't going to set the NFC on fire in their first season back in Los Angeles. While I'm not a big fan of Case Keenum as a starting quarterback at this level I do believe he's serviceable in this particular matchup. On the flip side, the 49ers will lean heavily on their ground game in Chip Kelly's up-temp offense, especially when you consider Blaine Gabbert is getting the start under center. This one likely won't be pretty but I'm comfortable laying a short number with a Rams squad that will have plenty of motivation and certainly won't look past the 49ers on the road. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-11-16 | Patriots v. Cardinals OVER 44 | 23-21 | Push | 0 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Arizona at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a big downshift in the total with not only Tom Brady out but also Rob Gronkowski. While I'm not sure the Patriots can truly overcome both of those huge absences, I do believe they'll still find a way to put some points on the board against a great Cardinals defense. On the flip side, I'm high on the Arizona offense and believe we'll see them continue to show progression just as they did as the preseason went on. Arizona will undoubtedly get up for this matchup against the high profile Patriots and I expect to see a sharp offensive performance. The Cards may be known for their defense but they've taken some big steps offensively with Carson Palmer under center. Following the line move, we're seeing excellent value to play 'over' this relatively low total on Sunday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-11-16 | Dolphins +10.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I like the Dolphins in an underdog role, not only this week, but this season in general. I believe we'll see the Miami offense really grind down the opposition, dinking and dunking down the field with Ryan Tannehill at the helm. This is a team desperate to find an offensive identity this season, and I'm confident they'll do just that. It certainly won't be difficult for the Fins to get up for this opening week matchup as they head west to face the always tough Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. Seattle has its sights set on another NFC championship this year and while the pieces are in place for the Seahawks to contend for that title, there are a lot of question marks as well. Note that Seattle closed out last season on a 1-3 ATS slide. They may have to gut out a victory on Sunday afternoon. I'll grab all the points I can get with Miami. Take Miami (10*). |
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09-11-16 | Bucs +2.5 v. Falcons | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bucs finished last season with a whimper, dropping their final four games both SU and ATS. It's worth noting that their most recent win came against these same Falcons back on December 6th of last year. I'm fairly high on the Bucs entering the new campaign, however. I like the fact that they start the season with a road division game as they'll have little trouble getting up for this one. Meanwhile, Atlanta just seems disjointed to me. Matt Ryan continues to hold down the starting quarterback job but for how much longer? There just hasn't been enough winning in recent years and I'm not sure things change here in 2016. It's great to have Julio Jones on the field but he won't be enough on Sunday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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09-11-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
My selection is on San Diego plus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday. Everyone is down on the Chargers again this year, but what else is new? I actually feel that the AFC West is going to be fairly wide open this season, however, and I don't consider the Chargers to be a down-trodden bunch entering the new campaign. Philip Rivers should do enough to keep his squad in this one from start to finish on Sunday. The Chiefs stumbled against the Patriots in the second round of the playoffs last January - there was certainly no shame in bowing out in the Divisional Round. This is a complete team, there's no question about that. But I simply feel the Chiefs are being asked to lay too many points in a division game, at home where the pressure is steep, right out of the gates in 2016. Kansas City has taken the last four meetings in this series, but prior to that the Chargers had dominated. Look for a tight one at Arrowhead on Sunday. Take San Diego (10*). |
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09-10-16 | California +7.5 v. San Diego State | 40-45 | Win | 100 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal plus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. Cal has been idle for a couple of weeks after opening the season with a dominating victory over Hawaii in Sydney, Australia. I don't expect the Golden Bears to suffer any sort of hangover here, however, as they head to San Diego to take on the Aztecs. The Bears rolled to a 35-7 victory in this matchup last year. It is worth noting that game was in Berkeley of course. With that being said, I believe the Bears can give the Aztecs a battle in this one. San Diego State delivered a 31-0 shutout win over New Hampshire last week but takes a step up in class here. The Aztecs are simply being asked to lay too many points in my opinion. Take California (10*). |
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09-10-16 | Texas Tech v. Arizona State -1.5 | 55-68 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona State minus the points over Texas Tech at 10 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the short number with the Sun Devils in this key early season showdown in Tempe. Both of these teams rolled to victory against overmatched opponents last week. There really wasn't much to draw from those lopsided results. Here, I believe Arizona State can really frustrate a Texas Tech squad that wants to turn this into a track meet. The Sun Devils have a strong home field advantage that simply isn't being properly accounted for in this line. I like the Red Raiders, but I believe we'll see them get caught flat-footed off the blowout win over Stephen F. Austin at home. Arizona State is riding a perfect 5-0 ATS run dating back to last season. Take Arizona State (10*). |
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09-10-16 | BYU v. Utah -3 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over BYU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I always love playing this rivalry matchup and this year is no exception. BYU is coming off a stunning win over Arizona, setting the tone for what promises to be a big season for the Cougars, an independent. Meanwhile, Utah struggled to get in gear offensively but still cruised to a shutout victory over Southern Utah. Don't think for a second that the Utes weren't looking ahead to this showdown with the Cougars. While BYU has a healthy Taysom Hill under center, which is a huge advantage here in 2016, I'm not sure his presence will be enough in this one. The Utes lost some key pieces from last year's squad but the cupboard remains well stocked. Note that Utah has owned this series lately, taking four consecutive meetings. Take Utah (10*). |
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09-10-16 | South Carolina v. Mississippi State -7.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over South Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Bulldogs in this huge bounce-back spot against the Gamecocks. South Carolina is coming off a down year but got 2016 off to a strong start with a field goal win at Vandy last week. Things get a little tougher here as the Gamecocks take on a Mississippi State squad that will be bent on rebounding following an embarrassing home loss to South Alabama last week. Note that the Bulldogs led that game 20-7 in the fourth quarter before allowing two unanswered touchdown scores. They're certainly a better team than they showed in that game. All things considered we're being asked to lay a reasonable number with the superior squad here. Take Mississippi State (10*). |
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09-10-16 | Penn State +4.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 39-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
My selection is on Penn State plus the points over Pittsburgh at 12 noon et on Saturday. I just don't see Penn State dropping a game this early in the season, even if this is a tough matchup on the road against Pitt. The Panthers have one big positive working for them, and that's RB James Conner. He'll get his yardage against the Nittany Lions, but I'm confident they'll bring their 'bend but don't break' approach will serve them well. Pitt delivered a 28-7 win over a quality FCS squad in Villanova last week but it will face a tougher challenge here. Meanwhile, Penn State rolled to a 33-13 win over Kent State, even if it was a struggle at times. I simply feel the Nittany Lions are the superior squad here, so obviously I don't feel the Panthers are deserving of laying more than a field goal, even at home. Penn State entered this season with a real chip on its shoulder after closing last year with four straight losses. It delivers another big victory here to open the campaign. Take Penn State (10*). |
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Sean Murphy Football Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-22-16 | TCU v. West Virginia OVER 65 | 10-34 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
10-22-16 | Colorado v. Stanford -1 | 10-5 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
10-22-16 | Texas v. Kansas State +1.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show | |
10-21-16 | Oregon v. California UNDER 89 | 49-52 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 14 m | Show | |
10-20-16 | BYU v. Boise State -6.5 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
10-20-16 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 46 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 35 h 42 m | Show | |
10-17-16 | Jets v. Cardinals -7.5 | 3-28 | Win | 102 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans OVER 48 | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
10-16-16 | Falcons v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
10-16-16 | Chiefs -1 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10-16-16 | Bengals v. Patriots -7 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
10-15-16 | Arizona State +11 v. Colorado | 16-40 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
10-15-16 | Virginia Tech v. Syracuse +20 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
10-15-16 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech UNDER 85 | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 36 m | Show | |
10-15-16 | NC State v. Clemson -17.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
10-14-16 | Mississippi State +7.5 v. BYU | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show | |
10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 45.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show | |
10-10-16 | Bucs v. Panthers -5.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Bengals v. Cowboys UNDER 45 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
10-09-16 | Texans v. Vikings -6.5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
10-09-16 | Titans v. Dolphins OVER 43 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
10-08-16 | Washington v. Oregon +9 | 70-21 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 55 m | Show | |
10-08-16 | Colorado v. USC -4.5 | 17-21 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 40 m | Show | |
10-08-16 | Army v. Duke OVER 46.5 | Top | 6-13 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
10-08-16 | Maryland v. Penn State +2 | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show | |
10-08-16 | Notre Dame +3 v. NC State | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
10-07-16 | UMass v. Old Dominion OVER 52.5 | 16-36 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
10-06-16 | Cardinals -3 v. 49ers | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
10-06-16 | Temple v. Memphis OVER 60.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 26 m | Show |
10-03-16 | Giants v. Vikings OVER 43 | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
10-02-16 | Saints +3.5 v. Chargers | 35-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
10-02-16 | Saints v. Chargers OVER 53.5 | 35-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
10-02-16 | Rams v. Cardinals -7.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
10-02-16 | Titans +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
10-01-16 | Arizona State v. USC -10 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 32 h 39 m | Show |
10-01-16 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -2.5 | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
10-01-16 | Minnesota v. Penn State -2 | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
10-01-16 | Virginia +4 v. Duke | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington OVER 44.5 | Top | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 12 m | Show |
09-29-16 | Connecticut +30 v. Houston | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 53.5 | 45-32 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 45-32 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Bears v. Cowboys OVER 43.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
09-25-16 | Chargers v. Colts -1.5 | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
09-25-16 | Steelers v. Eagles +4 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 41.5 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
09-24-16 | Washington v. Arizona +14 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
09-24-16 | Stanford v. UCLA OVER 46 | 22-13 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
09-24-16 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -8 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
09-24-16 | Duke +20.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
09-24-16 | Penn State v. Michigan UNDER 56.5 | Top | 10-49 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
09-23-16 | USC +3 v. Utah | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots +1.5 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show | |
09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 41 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
09-22-16 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech UNDER 58 | Top | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | 29-14 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 48 m | Show | |
09-18-16 | Packers v. Vikings +2 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 43 m | Show | |
09-18-16 | Falcons +4.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
09-18-16 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 37.5 | 3-9 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
09-18-16 | Titans +6.5 v. Lions | Top | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
09-17-16 | Texas v. California OVER 81 | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
09-17-16 | USC v. Stanford -8.5 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
09-17-16 | Oregon +3 v. Nebraska | 32-35 | Push | 0 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
09-17-16 | Florida State v. Louisville UNDER 68 | 20-63 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
09-17-16 | Florida State v. Louisville | Top | 20-63 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
09-16-16 | Arkansas State v. Utah State UNDER 55.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
09-15-16 | Jets -1 v. Bills | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
09-15-16 | Houston v. Cincinnati +7.5 | 40-16 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
09-12-16 | Rams -2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 0-28 | Loss | -113 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
09-11-16 | Patriots v. Cardinals OVER 44 | 23-21 | Push | 0 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
09-11-16 | Dolphins +10.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
09-11-16 | Bucs +2.5 v. Falcons | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
09-11-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
09-10-16 | California +7.5 v. San Diego State | 40-45 | Win | 100 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
09-10-16 | Texas Tech v. Arizona State -1.5 | 55-68 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
09-10-16 | BYU v. Utah -3 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
09-10-16 | South Carolina v. Mississippi State -7.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
09-10-16 | Penn State +4.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 39-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |