Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-28-16 | Northwestern v. Pittsburgh OVER 64.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Northwestern at 2 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in the Pinstripe Bowl on Wednesday afternoon. Pitt didn't have much luck stopping the opposition during the regular season but the oddsmakers are giving the Panthers a puncher's chance in this one. I don't expect to see all that different of a story unfold, however. Northwestern turned in a few strong defensive showings, but there was more bad than good over the course of the season. I certainly don't anticipate seeing the Wildcats slowing a Panthers offense that can score points in a hurry. The 'over' went 11-1 in all games involving the Panthers this season. Look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-27-16 | Washington State v. Minnesota OVER 61 | 12-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Washington State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' in this Bowl matchup on Tuesday evening. We've seen a bit of an evolution of the Washington State program in recent years, going from perennial Pac-10/12 doormat to contender, and doing it on the strength of an improved defense. This year didn't exactly play out that way as the Cougars stumbled in their final two games, getting blasted by Colorado and Washington offenses. I'm not sure we'll see the Cougars do much to keep the Golden Gophers offense at bay on Tuesday, but I am confident that the Washington State offense can turn in a strong performance. Minnesota put forth a mixed bag in terms of its defense over the course of the regular season but I believe the Gophers will be vulnerable against an unfamiliar Cougars attack. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-26-16 | Vanderbilt v. NC State OVER 45 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between N.C. State and Vanderbilt at 5 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in this matchup. The Wolfpack seemed to hit a high note in their 10-3 home win over Notre Dame in early October. From there it was a struggle, even though they did win two of their final three regular season games, including a big victory over rival North Carolina. The 'under' cashed in seven of their last eight games but I expect a different story to unfold here. Vandy's final two regular season games sailed 'over' the total. The Commodores had a nice stretch of defensive football in October but outside of that, had a tough time keeping the opposition in check. The most recent meeting between these two schools resulted in a 38-24 Vandy win back in 2012. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 44.5 | 27-31 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Pittsburgh at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. Full writeups return on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. Big rivalry matchup here, the Ravens are coming off back-to-back 'over' results but I don't expect the same story to unfold on Sunday. The Steelers are known for their offense but their defense has actually come up big for much of the season. I don't see either offense breaking loose for a big day at Heinz Field. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-24-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Hawaii OVER 69.5 | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 54 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and Middle Tennessee State at 8 pm et on Saturday. For years, the 'over' seemed to be a sure thing in the Hawaii Bowl. Not so much recently, largely due to the fact that the Rainbow Warriors have fallen off considerably. I do believe we're in for a shootout this year, however. Middle Tennessee State has quietly produced one of the nation's best running attacks this season. Meanwhile, Hawaii can't stop the run. It would be a recipe for a disaster were it not for the fact that the Warriors can put points on the board themselves. Hawaii has a strong aerial attack while the Blue Raiders have had a difficult time slowing opposing passing games this season. The Warriors know they can hang in this matchup and should put forth an aggressive gameplan. All things considered, I believe we're dealing with a reasonable total here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-24-16 | Colts v. Raiders OVER 52.5 | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 50 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Oakland on Saturday afternoon. The Raiders have been involved in back-to-back defensive slugfests but I believe it will be back to 'normal' this week. Neither of these teams will shy away from a shootout. Colts QB Andrew Luck is playing some of his best football of the season right now, and a big reason for that has been the fact that he's managed to stay upright, sacked only twice since returning from a concussion three games back. I don't believe that Indy will have a great deal of success slowing the powerful Raiders offense, however. We saw Oakland sputter in that regard last week as Derek Carr continued to battle an injured finger. That was against the division rival Chargers though. Here, there's a lack of familiarity in terms of the Colts middle of the road defense preparing for Carr. I look for the Raiders to have plenty of success finishing drives. This is one of the highest posted totals we've seen in the NFL this season but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-24-16 | Titans -4.5 v. Jaguars | 17-38 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Saturday. Aside from the Browns, the Jaguars are pretty much the bottom of the barrel in the NFL right now. Jacksonville did put forth a good effort last week but ultimately fell a point short on a late touchdown in Houston. I don't see the Jags picking themselves up off the mat against the surging Titans here. Tennessee has won three straight games but it would be all for not if it can't keep it rolling against a very beatable Jags squad here. Remember, the Titans crushed the Jags by a 36-22 score in their first meeting this season. It could certainly be argued that Tennessee is playing better now than it was then. Jacksonville has no home field advantage whatsoever having gone 1-6 here this season. Meanwhile, the Titans have proven to be a gritty road team, having posted a 4-3 record. Take Tennessee (10*). |
|||||||
12-24-16 | Falcons -3 v. Panthers | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Falcons in Carolina on Saturday. The Panthers came up big in Washington on Monday night but now find themselves in a tough spot, playing on a short week with a number of their key cogs banged up, if able to play at all. That win over the Redskins had more to do with a terrible gameplan from Washington than anything else. Here, the Panthers will face a more focused Falcons squad that is coming off two of their best performances of the season, albeit against weak opposition. The Atlanta offense is absolutely rolling right now, and certainly had no trouble putting up 48 points against the Panthers earlier this season - that was actually a healthier Panthers defense than the one it will face on Saturday. The Falcons defense doesn't get a lot of respect but this is a capable group and one that I expect to see do a terrific job of containing a hobbled Cam Newton and the Panthers offense on Saturday afternoon. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
12-23-16 | Louisiana Tech v. Navy +7 | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Navy plus the points over Louisiana Tech at 4:30 pm et on Friday. Despite back-to-back ugly losses, I don't believe Navy should be written off. The Middies have still managed to go 7-5-1 ATS this season, with some big outright wins along the way. Meanwhile Louisiana Tech, much like Navy, was exposed in its final two games, getting ripped by both Southern Miss and Western Kentucky. The Bulldogs are a quality team to be sure, but I'm not sure they're worthy of laying so many points against what will be a highly-motivated Navy squad. Take Navy (10*). |
|||||||
12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 41.5 | 19-24 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Philadelphia on Thursday night. The Giants have certainly rounded back into form, fresh off back-to-back wins over the Cowboys and Lions, allowing just 13 points in the process. Their offense has come up big when it has needed to, but hasn't been particularly consistent. I do feel they're in for a challenge here. The Eagles haven't played their best football lately, that's for sure. They've given up at least 26 points in five straight games. With that being said, they've allowed more than 27 points only once over that stretch. They've yet to allow more than 27 points in a home game this season. When these two teams met in New Jersey back in November, the Giants rolled to a 28-23 win, easily eclipsing the total. The Eagles were better-suited for a high-scoring affair at the time, however. Despite scoring 26 points against the Ravens last week, they're struggling offensively right now. All four meetings on this field since 2012 have totaled 36 points or less. I believe the relatively low total is warranted in this spot. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-21-16 | BYU v. Wyoming UNDER 57 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Wyoming at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in the Poinsettia Bowl on Wednesday night. BYU is an excellent defensive team that played some of its best football down the stretch during the regular season, allowing a grand total of 29 points over its final four contests. Note that the 'under' cashed in six of their last seven games. Wyoming hunt tough in the Mountain West Conference championship game, ultimately falling by a 27-24 score. That game stayed 'under' the total after the Cowboys previous four contests went 'over'. I simply don't have enough confidence in a BYU offense that will be without QB Taysom Hill to consistently put points on the board against a Wyoming defense that is better than it showed down the stretch. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-20-16 | Memphis v. Western Kentucky OVER 80 | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Western Kentucky at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We're dealing with a very high total in this one, but it's warranted in my opinion. Both the Memphis and Western Kentucky offenses really hit their stride down the stretch during the regular season. I don't believe the extended layoff will have any adverse effects on either offense. This is a nightmarish matchup for the Tigers defense, which allows five yards per rush on the season. The Hilltoppers boast one of the best ground attacks in college football, averaging north of five yards per carry. On the flip side, don't count on the Hilltoppers getting many stops against a Memphis offense that can beat you both through the air and on the ground. The Tigers faced the tougher schedule over the course of the regular season and will have more speed than what Western Kentucky is accustomed to seeing. This will be the first ever meeting between these two programs but despite the lack of familiarity I don't think we'll see much of a feeling-out process. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-19-16 | Panthers v. Redskins -7 | 26-15 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Carolina at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Redskins on Monday night. It's not that I'm all that high on Washington, but I simply feel that the Panthers have too many question marks to support in a tough environment and little to play for other than pride. Both teams are coming off big wins last week, but the Redskins was more impressive as they went into Philadelphia and won while the Panthers defeated the Chargers at home. Washington hasn't been home since the Sunday before Thanksgiving, going 1-2 over its last three contests. The Redskins are still in playoff contention, however, and I believe we'll see them bring their 'A' game on Monday night. While Washington has become known for its offense, which has come a long way this season, it's the Redskins defense that has impressed me most. Look for them to handle the Panthers inconsistent offense and ultimately pull away for a convincing win. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
12-18-16 | Patriots -3 v. Broncos | 16-3 | Win | 100 | 43 h 11 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday Afternoon ATS Rout. My selection is on New England minus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is the story of two teams heading in opposite directions right now, and I believe both squads stay on course on Sunday afternoon. New England is playing its best football of the season right now having not lost a game in over a month. Even without Gronk, the Pats offense continues to churn along while their underrated defense comes up big week after week. Mind you, the Pats haven't exactly faced a tough schedule of late and they come into this one playing on a short week after outlasting the Ravens on Monday. I believe they'll use that angle as motivation here, however, and I also feel that they're catching the Broncos at precisely the right time. Denver has dropped two of its last three games and really hasn't looked all that good since back in October. It's tough to defend a Super Bowl title as everyone is gunning for you on a weekly basis. The Broncos are certainly finding that out first hand this season. The home team has taken each of the last seven meetings in this series, although four of those contests have been won by the Pats. I believe the oddsmakers have got it right installing the Pats as a road favorite this time around, though. Take New England (10*). |
|||||||
12-18-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +3 | 24-20 | Loss | -100 | 40 h 51 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday Afternoon Underdog Shocker. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Bengals at home on Sunday afternoon. Cincinnati has nothing to lose at this point. The Bengals find themselves out of contention but off back-to-back wins, and facing arguably their biggest rival in what amounts to their Super Bowl. I like their chances of giving the red hot Steelers a serious run. Pittsburgh will be facing a tough task here as it tries to extend its winning streak to five games following a gritty road win in Buffalo last Sunday. Consistency hasn't exactly been the Steelers calling card in recent years. I'm just not sure Pittsburgh is quite as good as it has looked over the last several weeks. The Bengals continue to boast a winning record at home this season. They haven't defeated the Steelers on this field since 2013 but they'll have ample motivation to pull off the upset on Sunday afternoon. I'll take all the points I can get. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
|||||||
12-18-16 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 59 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating another low-scoring affair between these two AFC North rivals on Sunday afternoon. The first meeting between these two teams this season totaled just 40 points back in September. We're dealing with a much lower posted total this time around, but it's warranted in my opinion. The Steelers have been one of the best 'under' bets in the league this season, posting a 4-9 o/u mark. Their offense has been steady lately, but not particularly explosive. Meanwhile, their defense has been better than expected as a whole this season. The Bengals have put up 55 points over their last two games, but don't count on them keeping it up as the competition gets tougher this week. This is still an offense that is missing its top weapon in WR A.J. Green, not to mention versatile RB Gio Bernard. The good news for Cincinnati is it has delivered back-to-back wins and its defense is performing at a very high level. I look for that to continue on Sunday afternoon at home. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-17-16 | Southern Miss v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Southern Miss and UL-Lafayette at 9 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' at the Superdome on Saturday night. I don't anticipate either offense being slowed on the fast track in this one. Southern Miss didn't exactly live up to expectations this season but can make amends with a strong performance here. There's little reason to expect the Ragin' Cajuns to slow the Eagles offense. UL-Lafayette will once again lean heavily on its ground game but should find some success against a vulnerable Southern Miss defense that allows nearly five yards per rush on the campaign. Both teams saw the 'under' cash in their last two regular season games, which helps to keep this total in check. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-17-16 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 37.5 | 34-13 | Loss | -103 | 34 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and New York at 8:25 pm et on Saturday. We're dealing with a low total here, but I believe it's warranted. Both offenses have had their struggles and things won't get any easier playing on a short week, not to mention the fact that both units are without their regular starting centers at this stage of the season. Of course, Miami will also be without QB Ryan Tannehill. Veteran Matt Moore will get his first start since 2011 and while the offense should still run relatively smoothly with Moore at the helm, I'm not counting on a lot of explosive plays. Note that the Dolphins running game has virtually disappeared in recent weeks, severely hampering their ability to finish drives. The Jets offense has turned to Bryce Petty at quarterback. He may be the QB of the future but he hasn't done a great deal to instill much confidence this season. I have respect for both defenses. The Jets 'd' was lit up in a no-show against the Colts the last time they played on this field. They should make amends here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-17-16 | Houston -4 v. San Diego State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston minus the points over San Diego State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Cougars in Bowl action on Saturday afternoon. Houston had its three-game winning streak snapped at the hands of a good Memphis squad last time out, giving up a whopping 48 points in the process. I do believe Houston matches up well with San Diego State, however. The Cougars defense has gotten ripped on more than one occasion this season, but has shown the ability to slow opposing ground games, which will obviously be key against Pumphrey and the Aztecs electric rushing attack. San Diego State dropped back-to-back games before rallying to defeat Wyoming in the Mountain West Championship Game. We actually missed the mark laying the points with the Aztecs in that one. I believe yet another coaching change motivates the Cougars here with Tom Herman moving on and Major Applewhite being promoted to head coach. Houston is ultra-talented but hasn't always lived up to expectations. It will here, however. Take Houston (10*). |
|||||||
12-15-16 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 38.5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Seattle on Thursday night. Both of these teams are coming off ugly losses last Sunday. Now playing on a short week, both will look to clean things up. I'm not anticipating many offensive fireworks. The Rams offense has been awful this season, and I'm not sure a coaching change will make an immediate impact this week. Rookie QB Jared Goff continues to make strides, but he's coming off an ugly performance against the Falcons on Sunday. Don't expect the Rams to ask him to do too much against an opportunistic Seahawks defense on Thursday. Seattle has struggled to put points on the board with QB Russell Wilson hobbled for much of the campaign. He's finally healthy, and turned in a strong effort two weeks ago against a reeling Panthers squad, but had a really tough time in Green Bay this past Sunday. Expect the Seahawks offensive performance to fall somewhere in the middle of those two games here. The Rams defense has the talent and the familiarity with the Seahawks to hold up well playing on a short week - even on the road. Three of the last four meetings in Seattle have totaled 36 points or less. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-12-16 | Ravens v. Patriots UNDER 44.5 | 23-30 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and New England at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Foxborough on Monday night. The Ravens exploded for 38 points in a rout of the Dolphins last week - their second consecutive win. I'm not sold on this offense, however. We're talking about an offense that has been on a decline for years. The consistency just hasn't been there ever since Baltimore's Super Bowl run. I do like the make-up of the Ravens defense. This is an unheralded group but one that's capable of stepping up against one of the league's best offenses in primetime. The Patriots barely broke a sweat in last week's 26-10 win over the Rams. Lost in the success of the Pats offense has been the play of their defense. Note that New England has allowed 17 points or less in eight of its last 10 contests. We've seen plenty of inflated totals in primetime NFL action this season. While this number isn't all that high, I believe it will prove to be too lofty in a key AFC matchup. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-11-16 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 51 | 11-16 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 18 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday O/U Rout. My selection is on the ‘over’ between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Not sure where the stops are going to come from in this game. Yes, the Bucs have won four games in a row, but their defense has been up and down. They’ve yet to face the potent Saints offense this year. New Orleans didn’t perform up to its own standards in last week’s ugly 28-13 home loss against the Lions. Drew Brees threw for a lot of yards, but had a tough time finishing drives in that one. I expect him to bounce back against a familiar opponent here, however. Meanwhile, the Saints defense remains their weakness, as has been the case for years. With Bucs QB Jameis Winston gaining confidence with each passing week, the ‘D’ could be in for a long afternoon in Tampa on Sunday. This is a high posted total to be sure, but I believe it’s warranted. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-11-16 | Saints +2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 11-16 | Loss | -100 | 77 h 20 m | Show |
NFL Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Tampa Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Saints laid an egg at home against a rolling Lions squad last Sunday. But I fully expect to see them bounce back in a big way as they travel to Tampa this week. There are questions lingering as to whether Drew Brees is less than 100% healthy after he struggled at times in last week’s game. I’m not overly concerned. The Lions boast a better defense than most are willing to give them credit for. Brees will be taking a step down in class against an inconsistent and familiar Bucs defense this Sunday. Tampa Bay has made some positive strides this season. That’s probably an understatement as the Bucs roll into this game riding a four-game winning streak – fresh off a big road win in San Diego last week. But now they travel back across the country and I’m not sure their familiarity with the division rival Saints helps their cause in this particular spot. The Saints may be 5-7 overall but they don’t feel they’re out of the running just yet thanks to playing three division games down the stretch, including two against these Bucs. They’ll play three of their last four games on the road, where they’ve gone 2-3 this season but they’ve been close in all of their losses. I simply feel that the wrong team may be favored here. Take New Orleans (10*). |
|||||||
12-11-16 | Texans v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 57 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday Total Dominator. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Houston and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. We cashed a big ticket with the ‘over’ in the first meeting between these AFC South rivals back in October (and were fortunate to do so) but I won’t hesitate to switch gears this time around. The Texans offense has sputtered for much of the season, due in large part to the ineffectiveness of QB Brock Osweiler. Is there any reason to expect anything to change this week as they head into hostile territory with a division title virtually hanging in the balance? The Colts defense should be a confident group thanks to Monday night’s dominant performance on the road against the hapless Jets. It’s a boost that could be much-needed with LB D’Qwell Jackson suspended for the remainder of the season. The Houston defense has dealt with plenty of key injuries this season but has hung in there save for a few late game collapses recently. I’m not sure the Colts offense is quite as good as it showed on Monday night in New Jersey and look for the Texans defense to step up with a strong performance on Sunday afternoon. There’s a lot on the line in this game. I’m anticipating a hard-fought affair all the way. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-11-16 | Steelers -2 v. Bills | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 59 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. We successfully faded the Bills in Oakland last Sunday and I believe they’ll be in tough as they travel back across the country to host the Steelers this week. Pittsburgh essentially controls its own destiny in terms of getting into the postseason and took a step in the right direction with a convincing home win over the Giants last week. Of course, for the Steelers it’s all about finding some consistency down the stretch. While Buffalo can present a hostile environment, particularly in December, I believe the Steelers will be up to the task. We saw plenty of frustration from Bills QB Tyrod Taylor when dealing with tough questions from reporters earlier this week. I’m in line with the majority in thinking Taylor might not be the guy to lead this team as the years go on. The Bills have put some good pieces in place to surround Taylor but it still hasn’t been enough to spark the offense on a weekly basis. Pittsburgh has plenty of veteran experience to lean on at this stage of the season. It hasn’t traveled particularly well but I see this as a big step-up spot against Buffalo. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
|||||||
12-10-16 | Army v. Navy UNDER 47 | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 90 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday. We've certainly cashed our share of 'under' tickets in this series over the years. We're obviously talking about an overwhelming 'under' trend. I'm still not sure the oddsmakers have made enough of an adjustment when it comes to this total. It's the lowest total we've seen since 2009, but I believe it will still prove too high. Neither team has a quarterback that has a real nose for the end zone and I believe that sets us up for another low-scoring affair. Yes, Navy has been involved in plenty of shootouts this season but we cashed a big ticket with the 'under' in the Middies blowout loss to Temple last week, and I can't help but think they'll have a tough time getting rolling again here. Army is coming off a 60-point outburst but that came at the expense of an FCS squad, Morgan State. Prior to that, the Black Knights had topped out at 21 points over their last four contests. Navy has certainly brought out Army's 'A' game in recent years, with the Black Knights often saving their best for last. Of course, Army hasn't been able to get over the hump with a victory and that likely won't change here in 2016. Expect a hard-fought affair though. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-08-16 | Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 47 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 60 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Oakland and Kansas City at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. It would be easy to jump on the ‘over’ after watching these two offenses race up and down the field in their respective games last Sunday. But I’m going to go the other way, as I have respect for both defenses and don’t believe the Chiefs offense in particular is as good as it showed four days ago. Of course, playing on a short week also factors in as these Thursday night games always seem to trend to the ‘under’. The Raiders got off to a slow start against the Bills last Sunday but responded in a big way in the second half, ultimately cruising to yet another victory. Things will be a little tougher here, as they hit the road to face a Chiefs squad that already beat them by a 26-10 score in Oakland earlier this season (we won with Kansas City in that game). For the Chiefs, I believe they’ll face a lot more resistance against the Raiders than they did against the Falcons. Atlanta set the tone for that Sunday shootout early, scoring on its opening drive – yet the ‘over’ result was still in question in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. Given the fast start from both teams, it was surprising that the game ‘only’ reached 57 points. I expect a return to ‘normal’ here. This is obviously a big game for both teams. I’m anticipating a playoff atmosphere at Arrowhead and I don’t expect either team to give an inch. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-05-16 | Colts v. Jets +2 | 41-10 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Indianapolis at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the Jets at home on Monday night. Yes, New York is mired in another disappointing campaign, but it hasn't thrown in the towel as evidenced by last week's narrow five-point home loss to the Patriots. Here, it will stay home looking to avoid an 0-3 slide at the Meadowlands, and I look for the Jets to turn in one of their best efforts of the season. The Colts are battling for their playoff lives, but simply put, I don't believe this is a playoff squad. As much as it will help to get Andrew Luck back on the field, I don't like the personnel the Colts field defensively and I haven't seen enough consistency out of their offense to believe they can go on the road and notch a big victory here. Keep in mind, the Jets have taken three straight meetings in this series since 2011. Their last loss against the Colts came as an eight-point underdog on the road in the 2010 playoffs. Take New York (10*). |
|||||||
12-04-16 | Redskins +2.5 v. Cardinals | 23-31 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday Afternoon Underdog Winner. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Redskins plus the points in Arizona on Sunday afternoon. The Cardinals have been one of the league's biggest disappointments this season, going 4-6-1 SU and 3-8 ATS. I don't see their fortunes changing on Sunday when they host the 'Skins. Washington fell short against Dallas on Thanksgiving Day last week but that shouldn't strike much of a blow to its confidence. If anything, that narrow loss could give the 'Skins a boost in confidence as they stay on the road this week. Washington hasn't won a road game since early October, going winless in three games since. Keep in mind, the 'Skins haven't exactly faced a group of pushovers on the road over the last couple of months. The Cardinals have fallen well short of expectations largely due to the poor play of aging QB Carson Palmer. While he has the weapons in place to bounce back this week, I'm not sure we'll see it happen. These two teams are in much different places in their progression right now. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
12-04-16 | Chiefs +6 v. Falcons | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday Afternoon ATS Rout. My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Chiefs in Atlanta on Sunday. Kansas City appears to be in prime letdown spot off a big road win in Denver last Sunday night. But I'm not expecting the Chiefs to let down their guard in Atlanta this week. Keep in mind, we won with Atlanta last week in its rout of Arizona. It will face a much tougher challenge here, however. The Chiefs have certainly proved themselves on the road this season, going 4-2. Their 5-6 ATS mark doesn't tell the entire story as far as I'm concerned. This is a team that has been able to rise to the occasion and the table is set for another big performance here. We've actually cashed tickets in each of the Falcons last three games. I'm not sure that this is a trustworthy team from an ATS perspective. They've gone 7-4 ATS overall this season but check in just 2-3 ATS over their last five contests. Look for the Chiefs to do enough to stay inside the inflated pointspread at the very least on Sunday afternoon. Take Kansas City (10*). |
|||||||
12-04-16 | Chiefs v. Falcons UNDER 50 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon. Despite giving up 27 points in last week's wild overtime win in Denver, I still believe the Chiefs have one of the league's best defenses. The Falcons have been nothing short of explosive on offense this season but I believe they'll face considerable resistance in this one. Meanwhile, the Atlanta defense has been ripped on more than one occasion. However, this unit is coming off a strong performance last week against Arizona, and despite last week's outburst in Denver, the Kansas City offense is by no means a juggernaut. After losing Jeremy Maclin to injury the question lingered as to who would step up to produce in the Chiefs offense. That question was answered in the form of Tyreek Hill, who has been doing it all. But you can be sure the Falcons defense has been game planning for Hill all week long. I'm confident they'll be ready for what the Chiefs have to throw at them on Sunday. The last time these two teams met in 2012 we saw a closing total of 43. That game sailed 'over' the total with Atlanta rolling to a 40-24 road victory. I'm expecting a much different story to unfold on Sunday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-04-16 | Eagles v. Bengals -1.5 | Top | 14-32 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Bengals at home in this battle of reeling squads on Sunday afternoon. In some sense, I consider Cincinnati to be the lesser of two evils at this point of the season. The Eagles are struggling off back-to-back losses and disappointingly out of the race in the NFC East after a strong start to the season. Playing on the road on a short week, I don't see them figuring things out. The Bengals are winless in their last four games but I give them credit for at least hanging in against the Ravens on the road last week. They're obviously missing some key cogs on offense right now but I believe their defense will lead the way in this particular matchup, while their offense does just enough. Despite injuries to A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard, the Bengals do still have plenty of options on offense, not to mention a quality quarterback in Andy Dalton. Meanwhile, the Eagles aren't getting much out of rookie QB Carson Wentz right now. We're being asked to lay a reasonable number with the home side in this one. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
|||||||
12-03-16 | San Diego State -6 v. Wyoming | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Wyoming at 7:45 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Aztecs as they travel to Laramie for the second time in two weeks on Saturday. San Diego State closed as a 10-point favorite prior to that one. Of course, the Aztecs were ripe for a letdown in that contest, fresh off six consecutive wins. This time around, they'll have no shortage of motivation, not after suffering back-to-back losses, including a one-point setback against Wyoming in that matchup two weeks ago. I do believe the Aztecs are favored by nearly a touchdown for a reason. They're the superior team in this matchup. Wyoming has gone a perfect 6-0 SU at home this season, with some impressive victories in the mix. But there are cracks in the Cowboys armor, as evidenced by last week's 56-35 loss at New Mexico. I fully expect to see San Diego State bounce back in a big way here, noting that it rolled to a 38-3 win over Wyoming in last year's meeting. The Cowboys caught the Aztecs flat-footed last time, but that won't be the case with an MWC Championship hanging in the balance. Take San Diego State (10*). |
|||||||
12-03-16 | Temple v. Navy UNDER 60.5 | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Temple and Navy at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in the AAC Championship Game on Saturday afternoon. Simply put, I believe Temple can slow the high-powered Navy offense. The oddsmakers would seem to be on board with that thinking as well, installing the Midshipmen as a very small favorite in this one. Temple has reeled off 11 straight ATS wins, and has given up just 10 points over its last three contests. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in the Owls last four games. Navy faced a tough schedule this season but came away relatively unscathed, going 9-2 SU. The Middies have posted an 8-3 o/u mark, but again, that has a lot to do with the tough schedule they faced. I see this as a manageable matchup for the Navy defense. The last time these two teams met two years ago they combined to score 55 points, staying just 'under' the posted total. I'm calling for a similar outcome on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-02-16 | Colorado v. Washington UNDER 56.5 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Washington at 9 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in the Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday night. I have a lot of respect for both of these teams. We've made money supporting both this season, but here I'll focus on the total. I'm not convinced the Buffaloes will be able to get a lot done offensively in this matchup. There were times during the regular season when it was a real struggle for Colorado to break through offensively against strong opposition. While the Huskies have been a big of an offensive juggernaut this season, they should face plenty of resistance here. The Buffaloes are built on the strength of their defense, and they do match up reasonably well in that regard. Keep in mind, the 'under' went 2-0-1 in the Huskies final three regular season contests. The last time these two teams met in 2014 they combined to score 61 points but we're talking about two very different squads here in 2016. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 44 | 17-15 | Win | 102 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Minnesota on Thursday night. We won with the 'over' in the Cowboys Thanksgiving Day win over the Redskins, and also cashed with the 'under' and the Lions in the Vikes holiday affair. Here, I'm anticipating a fairly low-scoring contest. Yes, the Cowboys offense is scary good, and extremely efficient with the rookie tandem of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott leading the way. But they'll run into a tougher challenge than they faced last week as the Vikings return home in a foul mood, and with a top level defense. I don't have a lot of faith in the Minnesota offense. Sam Bradford struggled when it mattered most last Thursday in Detroit. The Vikes running game needs to get going, but I'm not sure they currently have the personnel in place to do so. The last time these two teams met in 2013 they reached 50 total points. Three years later, I expect a different story to unfold. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-28-16 | Packers +4 v. Eagles | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with the Packers on Monday night. Everyone is down on Green Bay right now. And perhaps rightfully so as the Packers have shown little life of late, going winless over their last four games. They just haven't been the same since that home loss to Dallas back in mid-October. I do like the Pack to respond favorably in this spot, however. There's really nowhere to go but up following back-to-back blowout losses on the road. While they're still dealing with some key injuries, that's been the case all season. There's no excuses at this point. The Eagles just aren't going to intimidate anyone. Yes, they're a perfect 4-0 at home (we've cashed some tickets along the way), but they've caught the opposition in some real favorable spots. Their offense has regressed as the season has gone on with rookie QB Carson Wentz struggling to regain his rhythm. I'm expecting a tightly-contested affair here. The Packers are down but not out. I don't see them going away quietly. Take Green Bay (10*). |
|||||||
11-28-16 | Packers v. Eagles UNDER 47.5 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Philadelphia on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Philadelphia on Monday night. The Packers are coming off four straight high-scoring affairs. They've been absolutely beaten down in Tennessee and Washington over the last two weeks but I look for them to hold up better in this spot, particularly on defense. Keep in mind, the Eagles are struggling offensively with rookie QB Carson Wentz looking every bit like a first-year starter over the last several games. The Packers defense is better than it has shown over the last few weeks, only collapsing in the fourth quarter last week in Washington. The Eagles defense doesn't get enough credit. This is a solid unit that has been particularly stout at home, where Philadelphia has gone a perfect 4-0 this season. Even in last week's double-digit loss in Seattle the defense did all it could to keep the team in the game right into the fourth quarter. The last time these two teams met they combined to score 73 points in a Packers rout back in 2014 at Lambeau Field. The two teams are in much different places now, however, with the Packers offense looking disjointed and the Eagles more of a defense-first squad. I simply feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-27-16 | Chiefs v. Broncos -3.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Kansas City at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Broncos at home on Sunday night. The Chiefs are riddled with injuries right now, particularly on the defensive side of the football. With that being said, none of their key cogs have been ruled out. But even if the likes of Peters, Poe and Hali can go, they won't likely be at 100%. Denver is coming off a thrilling, and unlikely, road win in New Orleans. I say unlikely because it trailed that game late in the fourth quarter. Add another notch to QB Trevor Siemian's belt after that performance. Defensively, the Broncos are getting healthier with Talib and Wolfe back on the field. And this is certainly a manageable matchup against a rather punchless Chiefs offense that recently lost WR Jeremy Maclin. This one won't come easy for the home side, but I do believe that the Broncos make the big plays down the stretch in this one as they secure a much-needed victory in the AFC West race. Take Denver (10*). |
|||||||
11-27-16 | Panthers v. Raiders UNDER 50 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Oakland on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'under' in the Panthers win over the Saints last week while missing with the 'under' in the Raiders victory over the Texans on Monday Night Football. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Yes, the Panthers will be without their best defensive player in Luke Kuechly, but I look for the rest of this unit to pick up the slack in his absence. Note that the Panthers have essentially turned in just two poor defensive performances this season, those coming against familiar opponents in the Falcons and Saints on the road. The Raiders offense is explosive, there's no question about that. However, this isn't an unstoppable offense. I don't believe the Raiders defense gets enough credit, noting that they have allowed 20 points or less in three of their last four games. The 'over' is a perfect 4-0 in the Raiders last four contests, but that streak will be seriously tested here with a high number. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-27-16 | Cardinals v. Falcons -4 | Top | 19-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Falcons on Sunday. We actually cashed a ticket fading Atlanta in its most recent game - a nine-point road loss against the Eagles two weeks ago. The bye week should have served the Falcons well as they return home to host a reeling Cardinals squad. Arizona has been one of the league's biggest disappointments so far this season. The Cards are coming off another loss last week in Minnesota and will be hard-pressed to bounce back here. While I do like Cards RB David Johnson, he simply isn't capable of shouldering the entire load on offense. Carson Palmer's best days certainly seem to be behind him and his receiving corps has let him down as well (with the exception of the ageless Larry Fitzgerald). Arizona remains banged up on defense and will face an explosive Falcons offense that will welcome back RB Tevin Coleman. I'll lay the reasonable number here. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
11-26-16 | Utah v. Colorado -9 | 22-27 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado minus the points over Utah at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Buffaloes on Saturday. Colorado has been undervalued all season long, and this week is no different. The Buffaloes check in sporting an incredible 10-1 ATS mark this season. However, they're just a game ahead of the Utes. Utah isn't playing its best football, not by a longshot. The Utes have just one win over their last three games and that came against a listless Arizona State squad. Things will obviously be much tougher in this spot. Last week, the Utes dropped a 30-28 decision at home against Oregon. I just don't see them picking up the pieces against a complete Colorado squad that is simply rolling following three consecutive double-digit victories. Take Colorado (10*). |
|||||||
11-26-16 | UCLA v. California UNDER 71 | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UCLA and Cal at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Berkeley on Saturday evening. UCLA is coming off a beatdown at the hands of rival USC last week, falling by a 36-14 score. I do expect the Bruins to turn in a stronger defensive showing here, even against another explosive offense in Cal. While most will assume UCLA will rip through the Bears defense, this is a Bruins offense that has been fairly inconsistent this season. Cal's offense has actually regressed down the stretch this season. The Bears have been involved in so many track meets, I simply feel that they're running out of gas as they limp to the finish line. Note that we haven't seen a matchup in this series go over the 70-point plateau since 2009. Over the last six meetings, the 'under' has gone 5-1. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-25-16 | Arizona State v. Arizona OVER 67.5 | Top | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
CFB Black Friday Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona State and Arizona at 9:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Tucson on Friday night. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Arizona's last game, a 42-17 loss at Oregon State last week. With that being said, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Arizona State hasn't tasted victory since October 8th. The Sun Devils offense has continued to perform at a fairly high level, however, despite a poor showing last week against a powerful Washington squad. With QB Manny Wilkins getting back to full strength there's reason to believe they'll shred the Arizona defense on Friday night. The Wildcats have dealt with injury issues of their own on offense this season. But Solomon and Dawkins are both healthy under center now. They'll be facing a Sun Devils defense that hasn't been able to stop anyone. Keep in mind, last year's meeting between these in-state rivals totaled 89 points. In fact, the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-24-16 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 51 | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 44 h 59 m | Show |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Dallas on Thursday. This one sets up nicely after the Cowboys delivered a relatively low-scoring win over the Ravens last Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, the Redskins exploded for 42 points in a win over the reeling Packers on Sunday night. I expect to see a strong performance from both offenses in Big D on Thursday. With QB Kirk Cousins once again rounding into form, WR DeSean Jackson back healthy, and some semblance of a running game making an appearance, the Redskins are evolving into one of the more explosive offenses in football. I see this as a manageable matchup against a Cowboys defense that has performed better than advertised at times, but has also proven vulnerable without a number of key cogs. Of course, the Dallas offense has been the talk of the league with rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott going off on a weekly basis. There’s little reason to expect any sort of slowdown from that duo on Thursday. Add in a healthy Dez Bryant and this is an awfully tough offense to slow down, let alone stop these days. We’re dealing with a high total in this one, higher than the number these two teams reached in their first meeting this season. It’s warranted though, as far as I’m concerned. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-24-16 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 43 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 40 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Minnesota and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Detroit on Thursday afternoon. The first meeting between these two teams was a low-scoring affair, totaling just 32 points in regulation time back on November 6th. I’m not anticipating a much different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Detroit on Thursday. Yes, the Vikings are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Cardinals on Sunday. However, it’s worth noting that Vikes QB Sam Bradford threw for only 169 yards on 20 completions in that game, while their leading rusher was Jerick McKinnon with just 44 yards on 16 carries. This is by no means an explosive offense right now, and runs into an underrated Lions defense on Thursday. Detroit is coming off a rather pedestrian 26-19 win over the Jaguars. In past years, the Lions have been known for their offense. Even when the team has been bad, the offense has generally remained strong. This year, we’ve seen the Lions defense take a big step forward though, and I’m confident that defense will hold up well again on Thursday. We’ve certainly seen plenty of high-scoring affairs on Thanksgiving Day at Ford Field over the years but this time around, I believe the total will prove to be too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-24-16 | Vikings v. Lions -2.5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 40 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Minnesota at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. For years, the Lions were NFC doormats and regularly dropped their Thanksgiving Day game, usually by wide margins. However, that’s changed in recent years and I like the way this year’s matchup sets up for Detroit as well. The Vikings got off to a hot start this season before going ice cold during a four-game losing streak. That skid included a stunning 22-16 home loss to the Lions. We did see the Vikes bounce back with a 30-24 win over what has turned out to be an overrated Cardinals squad on Sunday, but I believe it will be in tough hitting the road here. Despite putting up 30 points against Arizona, the Vikings offense struggled for the most part, with Sam Bradford throwing for only 169 yards and Jerick McKinnon leading the team with only 44 rushing yards. A lot is asked of the Vikes defense on a weekly basis, and I believe that catches up to them again in this spot. The Lions continue to fly beneath the radar despite reeling off four wins in their last five games. They’ve been getting it done with defense lately, allowing just 53 points over their last three contests combined. I’m confident we’ll see that defense come up big again in this matchup. Minnesota swept the season series between these two NFC North rivals last year after the Lions took both matchups in 2014. I’ll stick with the pattern and back the Lions here. Take Detroit (10*). |
|||||||
11-21-16 | Texans v. Raiders UNDER 45 | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Oakland at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Mexico City on Monday night. We won with the 'over' in Houston's most recent game - a 24-21 win in Jacksonville last Sunday. We were fortunate to cash that ticket, however, as the scoring slowed considerably following an exciting first quarter. I'm certainly not all that high on the Texans. They were in a favorable spot to put some points on the board last week against the lowly Jaguars, but it will be a different story against the red hot Raiders on Monday. While Oakland is known for its offense, we've seen the Raiders defense step to the forefront when it's mattered most as well. Last time out they limited an improving Broncos defense to just 20 points in a double-digit victory. They draw a manageable matchup against a rather one-dimensional Texans offense on Monday. The playing conditions could be difficult on Monday night in Mexico, not only due to the altitude but also the poor air quality. These Monday night games haven't exactly been barn burners this season, and I'm anticipating a similarly slow-paced affair on Monday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-21-16 | Texans v. Raiders -5.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland minus the points over Houston at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Raiders on Monday night. Despite some terrible showings in primetime, the Texans check into Monday's game sporting a 6-3 record. I don't believe they're as good as their record indicates. The Houston offense remains stuck in the mud with QB Brock Osweiler. Case in point, the fact that WR DeAndre Hopkins has been held to 56 yards receiving or less in six of the last seven games. Oakland's offense has been explosive to say the least, and while it will face a tough challenge in a better than expected Texans defense without J.J. Watt, I believe we'll see the Raiders make enough clutch plays to ultimately put this game away. Defensively, I believe we'll see the Raiders shine in this one - just as they did two weeks ago in their lone previous primetime tilt against the Broncos. The Raiders success so far this season is no fluke. This is a complete football team capable of reaching the postseason, and certainly capable of taking care of business against a team the caliber of the Texans. Take Oakland (8*). |
|||||||
11-20-16 | Packers v. Redskins -2.5 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 48 h 16 m | Show | |
Sunday Night ATS Rout. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Green Bay at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. The Redskins have quietly enjoyed a lot of success lately, going 5-1-1 over their last seven games. I look for them to keep it rolling against the downtrodden Packers on Sunday night. Green Bay has lost three in a row and four of its last five overall. The Packers defense just can't stop anyone right now, and even a healthy Clay Matthews isn't likely to make much of a difference here. Note that the Redskins have put up at least 26 points in three of their last four games. Kirk Cousins has proven to be one of the best passers in the league this season, with an unheralded supporting cast helping him out. Of course, these two teams met in the playoffs nearly a year ago with the Packers rolling to a convincing road win. That result certainly won't be lost on the Redskins. They're a better team than they were back in January - on both sides of the football. Meanwhile, the Packers have taken a significant step back as far as I'm concerned. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
11-20-16 | Patriots v. 49ers OVER 51 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 15 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a shootout at Levi's Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Yes, the Patriots will be without Rob Gronkowski but I don't expect that to hold the offense back. Last Sunday night we saw New England struggle against the Seahawks, but they'll face a more favorable matchup here. The 49ers are by no means what they once were defensively, and I'm confident the Pats will expose their weaknesses. San Francisco saw its four-game 'over' streak grind to a halt against the Cardinals last Sunday. Note that the 49ers have put up 43 points over their last two games. I still believe the Niners can have a strong finish to the campaign offensively with Colin Kaepernick locked in under center and Carlos Hyde back healthy. Who could forget the last meeting between these two teams - a Sunday night showdown in Foxboro back in 2012 - a game the 49ers won by a 41-34 score. While I'm not about to predict a game that gets into the 70's, I do believe this lofty total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-20-16 | Steelers v. Browns OVER 44.5 | 24-9 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. The Steelers don't have a defense to speak of. They've gotten repeatedly shredded during their current four-game losing streak. I'm not convinced they turn it around here, certainly not now that arguably their best defensive player, Cam Heyward, has been sidelined. Offensively, Pittsburgh can score with the best of them. We saw that last week as the Steelers went blow for blow with the Dallas Cowboys. I don't expect them to face a great deal of resistance in Cleveland. The Browns offense is better than it has shown, particularly the effort it put forth in last week's ugly loss at Baltimore. I'm a supporter of QB Cody Kessler, and believe he has enough pieces around him to put up points in a matchup such as this. The 'under' has cashed in six of the last seven meetings in this series, but we're looking at a reasonably low total on Sunday afternoon. Note that the last time they met here in Cleveland we saw a closing total of 47.5. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-20-16 | Steelers v. Browns +8 | Top | 24-9 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 59 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Browns on Sunday. The Steelers are in disarray right now. They've lost four straight games, culminating with last week's blown opportunity against the Cowboys. I'm not convinced they bounce back here, even if this does appear to be a very winnable matchup. The Browns have yet to win a game this season. But it's coming. At least that's my belief. Cleveland has actually stayed fairly healthy this season but having the youngest roster in the league has held it back. It won't be difficult for the Browns to get up for this divisional matchup, however, and I'm confident we'll see them stay inside the inflated pointspread. The Steelers defense has struggled at the best of times this season. Now they're without Cam Heyward in addition to a number of other key injuries. I'm not sure they can avoid the upset here, let alone cover the number. Take Cleveland (10*). |
|||||||
11-19-16 | Arizona v. Oregon State OVER 61 | 17-42 | Loss | -104 | 35 h 7 m | Show | |
Late Night O/U Bailout. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Oregon State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Corvallis on Saturday night. After being held to just 31 points over a span of three games, Arizona put up 24 against a quality Colorado defense, on the road no less, albeit in a blowout loss last Saturday. I expect to see progression from the Wildcats offense here against the Beavers. Meanwhile, Oregon State also put up 24 points in a losing effort on the road against UCLA. The Beavers have dropped five games in a row, although it's worth mentioning that they did score 31 points in their most recent home game, against a tough Washington State squad. We saw a closing total of 66.5 points in this matchup last year. While both offenses may have taken a step back, I believe both are in line for big performances on Saturday night. Expect a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-19-16 | Arkansas v. Mississippi State -1.5 | Top | 58-42 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 28 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Arkansas at 7 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been wildly inconsistent lately and both are coming off beatdowns at the hands of superior opponents last week. I simply believe that Mississippi State is a little better than its 4-6 overall record indicates while Arkansas isn't quite as good as its six wins would suggest, and I feel we're looking at a very reasonable line here as a result. Arkansas has alternated wins and losses over its last eight games. So the thinking here is that the Hogs should bounce back with a win following an ugly home loss to LSU last Saturday. I don't believe it will be that simple, however. We've backed the Bulldogs only once this season, in their Week 2 double-digit home win over South Carolina. That was a big rebound spot for Mississippi State as it was coming off a brutal home loss to South Alabama. Here, the Bulldogs are also coming off a tough loss, although it was an expected one, by a 51-3 score at Alabama. In order to make next week's showdown with Ole Miss really matter outside of the rivalry aspect, the Bulldogs need a victory here. This is a team that does deserve a Bowl game as far as I'm concerned, and I look for it to put forth one of its best efforts of the season on Saturday night. Take Mississippi State (10*). |
|||||||
11-19-16 | Washington State +6.5 v. Colorado | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
**REPUBLISHED TO REFLECT THE CORRECT SELECTION ABOVE - WE SINCERELY APOLOGIZE FOR THE ERROR** Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Cougars in Boulder on Saturday afternoon. I think the Cougars reputation as a Pac-12 bottom-feeder is a tough one to shake in the eyes of most bettors. At least that's how it seems as Washington State continues to be undervalued on a weekly basis. Since opening the campaign with back-to-back losses, the Cougars have gone a perfect 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS. Their lone road loss this season came in their second game against a strong Boise State squad and it came by only three points as a 13.5-point underdog. Colorado has enjoyed a tremendous bounce-back campaign, posting an 8-2 record with its two losses coming on the road against Michigan and USC. I believe the Buffaloes will be in for a fight on Saturday, however. Note that Washington State rolled past Colorado 27-3 as a two-touchdown favorite in last year's meeting. The Buffs' have obviously improved by a greater margin than the Cougars have, but I haven't been completely sold. We cashed a ticket fading Colorado at home against UCLA in an ugly affair two weeks ago. This time around, I'm expecting a far more entertaining game, but I'll once again grab the points rather than lay them. Take Washington State (10*). |
|||||||
11-17-16 | Saints v. Panthers UNDER 52.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Carolina at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Carolina on Thursday night. The Saints are known for their offense and they've certainly performed well on that side of the football in recent weeks, but I'm not convinced they'll enjoy the same success they did in the first meeting between these two teams this season. New Orleans' o-line took a hit with the absence of Terron Armstead last week and he isn't expected to play on Thursday. That's a key injury you won't hear a lot about. Defensively, the Saints turned in one of their better performances of the season last week, even if it was in a losing effort against the Broncos. I look for them to build off of that strong showing here. Of course, the Panthers offense has struggled to regain the form that carried the team all the way to the Super Bowl last February. Cam Newton has been under pressure virtually every snap, and the run game has been non-existent. Meanwhile, the receiving corps leaves a lot to be desired. TE Greg Olsen has been one of the few bright spots on offense. The Panthers defense held up well most of the way against the Chiefs last Sunday, but it wasn't enough as they were unable to hold off a fourth quarter comeback. This defense has been playing well, however, allowing 20 points or less in three straight games. If the Panthers are going to turn things around, the defense will need to lead the way. The last two meetings between these two teams resulted in identical 41-38 scores, with each team winning once. However, the most recent meeting here in Carolina resulted in only 49 points in September of last year. Of course, the Saints were without Drew Brees in that one. I'm not sure it makes a difference as far as the total is concerned here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-17-16 | Louisville v. Houston UNDER 69 | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and Houston at 8 pm et on Thursday. While both of these offenses can score in bunches, I feel that this total will prove too high on Thursday night. There's not much separating these two teams in terms of overall records, but I don't think there's any question, Louisville is the superior team from top to bottom. With that being said, Houston managed to upset Louisville, on the road no less, last season and will bring plenty of confidence to the table. The thing is, I believe the Cougars know that they're not going to win a shootout against the Cardinals - not this year anyway. They'll need to extend some drives in order to keep the ball out of the hands of Lamar Jackson and the explosive Cards offense. Louisville actually did a nice job containing Houston QB Greg Ward Jr. in last year's matchup - even if it was all for not in a losing effort. That will obviously be the key to victory here on Thursday night. The blueprint has been laid out for slowing down Ward, and I'm confident we'll see the Cardinals follow it. Last year's meeting went 'over' the posted total, but we're dealing with a much higher number this time around. Too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants UNDER 47.5 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and New York at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in New Jersey on Monday night. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results in their most recent games. In fact, the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 in the Bengals last three games. I don't see that streak continuing here, however. The Bengals have topped out at 31 points this season, and that performance came against the lowly Browns. I don't expect to see them approach that number here. The Giants have topped out at 28 points, doing so last week against the Eagles. It's worth noting that the G-Men scored two quick touchdowns in the first six minutes of that game before putting up only 14 points the rest of the way. Both defenses are better than they have shown and both offenses have been inconsistent at best. I'm surprised so many bettors are quick to back the 'over' in this one. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-13-16 | Seahawks v. Patriots -7.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over Seattle at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Patriots in this Super Bowl rematch from two years ago. The Seahawks cruised to a win over the Bills this past Monday night, but I think that game hid a lot of their flaws. Or should I say that win hid a lot of their flaws. Seattle will welcome Kam Chancellor back on Sunday night, which will provide a boost to the defense, but I'm not sure it will prove to be enough. This is a struggling unit right now and things won't get any easier against a rested Patriots offense. While New England is known for its offense, its defense has more than held its own this season. In fact, it has been dominant for stretches. This group has remained relatively healthy and should feast on a Seahawks offense that really has no semblance of a running game right now. Pete Carroll can talk all he wants about how Russell Wilson is getting back to full strength, but we've yet to see it on the field as he hasn't shown that same scrambling ability in recent weeks. He's getting there, but he's not all the way back as far as I'm concerned. The Seahawks aren't the same imposing force they were when they faced the Pats in the Super Bowl nearly two years ago. I simply believe the Pats will prove to be too much on Sunday night. Take New England (10*). |
|||||||
11-13-16 | Cowboys v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -113 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the short number with the Steelers against the red hot Cowboys on Sunday. Pittsburgh looked pretty awful in last week's loss to the division rival Ravens. Of course, that came on the road, and it came in Ben Roethlisberger's first game back from injury. It took a while for Big Ben to settle in against Baltimore, but I'm anticipating a much sharper performance here. There will be no shortage of motivation for the Steelers as the Cowboys are the talk of the league, having reeled off seven straight wins since opening the season with a home loss to the Giants. Dallas couldn't have played much better than it did in last week's rout of the Browns in Cleveland. But obviously things get a lot tougher here. Note that if Dallas doesn't lose here, it likely won't be seriously challenged again until facing the Vikings on the road in a Thursday nighter on December 1st. As poorly as Pittsburgh has played over its last few games it still remains in the thick of the hunt for an AFC North division title. With a win here it would pull even with the Ravens atop the division. These two teams haven't met since 2012, but the last two meetings have gone the way of the home side. That's a trend I see continuing here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
|||||||
11-13-16 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 42 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. The last time these two teams met they combined to score just 36 points in a blowout victory in favor of the Texans. However, that came in the final week of the 2015 regular season. I expect a game here more similar to the 31-20 result in October 2015. The Texans are coming off a 20-13 home win over the Lions and enter this one off of their bye week. Remember, just two games back the Texans essentially hit rock bottom - at least on offense - in a 27-9 loss to the Broncos (we won with Denver on that night). I still believe these Texans have plenty of upside on offense and I'm confident they'll enjoy plenty of success against a very beatable Jags defense. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's offense has done nothing of late, but does draw a favorable matchup here. The Texans defense has been undermanned for much of the season with J.J. Watt sidelined and I'm not convinced that unit will bring its 'A' game on Sunday. The 'over' is 3-2 in each of these teams' last five games overall and I'll back that modest trend here on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-13-16 | Falcons v. Eagles +1 | 15-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
Sunday Afternoon ATS Rout. My selection is on Philadelphia over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Eagles at home on Sunday afternoon. We cashed a big ticket with the Falcons last week, as they rolled to a blowout win over the Bucs in Tampa. Things get a little tougher for Atlanta here, as it aims for its third straight victory. Note that the Falcons already vulnerable defense lost CB Desmond Trufant to injury last week and he won't play in this one. That opens the door for Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense to take full advantage as far as I'm concerned. Atlanta has thrived on its offense so far this season but how long can it keep it up? The Falcons weren't challenged by a weak Bucs defense last week. Here, they'll run into an Eagles squad that has given up just 23 points in three home games this season. The Eagles are a perfect 3-0 at home this season and know they have to bring their 'A' game in order to put a stop to their two-game skid. In the ultra-competitive NFC East they simply can't afford a long losing streak. I like their chances of bouncing back here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
|||||||
11-12-16 | California v. Washington State UNDER 83.5 | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 32 h 19 m | Show | |
CFB Late Night O/U Bailout. My selection is on the 'under' between California and Washington State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Washington State's blowout win over Arizona last week but I'll switch gears and back the 'under' this time around. Cal is coming off an absolute beatdown at the hands of Washington last week and certainly hasn't performed up to standards defensively of late. After four consecutive terrible showings on defense, I do expect the Bears to at least get a few stops and play with some pride on Saturday night in Pullman. Note that Cal held Washington State to 28 points in last year's meeting. I have more respect for the Cougars defense than most. They absolutely manhandled Arizona last Saturday and have actually done a pretty good job on the defensive side of the ball, particularly here at home, after a rocky start to the season. While Cal does boast an explosive offense, I'm confident we'll see the Cougars do a fairly good job of keeping that unit in check. The 'over' has gone 3-1 in Cal's last four games overall and 3-1 in Wazzou's last three. That has certainly been factored into this total when you consider last year's total closed at 73.5 and the year previous we saw a 67.5. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-12-16 | Stanford v. Oregon OVER 57 | Top | 52-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and Oregon at 4 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' at Autzen Stadium on Saturday afternoon. We missed the mark with the 'over in Stanford's most recent game - a double-digit win over Oregon State last Saturday. A goal-line stand in the final minutes was all that kept that one from going 'over' (and Stanford from covering the spread). We came out on the wrong end of that one, but I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. The Cardinal at least made some positive strides offensively last week. In fact, Stanford has scored 60 points over its last two games which is major progress considering how it had performed earlier in the campaign. I'm confident we'll see Stanford get loose offensively against a weak Oregon defense that hasn't really slowed anyone down this season. The Ducks have allowed at least 35 points in all six Pac-12 games to date. The good news for Oregon is that it has enjoyed some offensive success this season and I'm not convinced Stanford is quite as good defensively as it has showed in recent weeks. Slowing the Ducks down on this field will be a challenge for the Cardinal, noting that Oregon has scored 53, 44, 38, 21 and 54 points at home this season. Last year's meeting between these two teams barely crept 'over' the total but we were dealing with a higher posted total on that occasion. This number remains in a reasonable range thanks to Stanford's offensive struggles more than anything else. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-12-16 | Pittsburgh v. Clemson -20.5 | 43-42 | Loss | -111 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
Saturday Afternoon Blowout. My selection is on Clemson minus the points over Pittsburgh at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Tigers in this one. After getting involved in so many shootouts early in the season, I'm honestly not sure how much Pitt has left in the tank right now. We saw the Panthers struggle at Miami last week, suffering an ugly 51-28 loss. They were fortunate to score as many points as they did in that game. I don't believe they'll enjoy as much success offensively on the road against Clemson in this spot, and I can't see them staying within a reasonable margin over four quarters. The Tigers are off a 54-0 drubbing of Syracuse last week. After some questions were raised early in the campaign, they've gotten loose, and still haven't suffered a loss this season. I simply feel that we'll see the train keep rolling on Saturday afternoon at home. Look for the Clemson defense to set the tone in this one. As long as they can keep the Panthers return game at bay, I'm confident they'll sail to a lopsided victory. Take Clemson (10*). |
|||||||
11-12-16 | Pittsburgh v. Clemson UNDER 65.5 | Top | 43-42 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
ACC Super Total. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. After posting a shutout against Syracuse last Saturday some are anticipating a defensive letdown from Clemson in this matchup, at least based on the relatively high total we're dealing with. However, I'm confident we'll see the Tigers manhandle the Panthers in this one. Pittsburgh put up 28 points in last week's blowout loss at Miami, but it was fortunate to get to that number, thanks to a 100-yard kickoff return. The Panthers offense actually struggled with QB Nathan Peterman completing only 17-of-35 passes and RB James Conner gaining only 40 yards on 12 carries. It's hard to envision the Panthers bouncing back in this tough matchup. I feel that the Panthers are running out of gas after being involved in so many wild, high-scoring affairs early in the season. Yes, they're still in good position to reach a Bowl game but back-to-back losses to Virginia Tech and Miami have struck a blow. Pitt won't be interested in getting involved in another shootout here - it simply doesn't have the the type of defense that could possibly get enough stops down the stretch to prevail. It desperately needs to tighten things up on that side of the football or it is going to get its doors blown off again here. I'm confident we'll see the Clemson defense do enough, and for the offense to take its foot off the gas enough down the stretch to keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-10-16 | Utah v. Arizona State UNDER 57 | Top | 49-26 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Arizona State at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been solid 'over' bets recently, with the 'over' going a perfect 2-0 in each of their last two games. I see that trend changing on Thursday, however. Both the Utes and Sun Devils are coming off bye weeks so they've had plenty of time to get ready for this matchup. Utah will certainly be focused on rebounding defensively after allowing a whopping 76 points in its last two games. The same goes for Arizona State as it has been ripped for 131 points in its last three contests. I'm not sure either squad is interested in another high-octane shootout on Thursday. Note that these two teams have met in each of the last five seasons and none of those games surpassed 52 points. We did see last year's matchup creep 'over' the posted total but we're dealing with a considerably higher number this time around. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-10-16 | Browns v. Ravens UNDER 45 | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Baltimore at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Baltimore on Thursday night. The Browns suffered yet another loss - a resounding one - last Sunday against Dallas. Cleveland has now dropped the cash in three consecutive games, allowing more than 30 points on each occasion. Here, Cleveland catches a bit of a break in my opinion. Baltimore is coming off a big home win over the Steelers last week. But prior to that, the Ravens had dropped four games in a row. A quick start last week led them to victory but the fact is, their offense has struggled. Baltimore will undoubtedly look to get its ground game going against the Browns after picking up only 61 rushing yards over the last two games combined. That lends itself to the 'under' as far as I'm concerned. I don't believe the Browns are as bad defensively as they've looked over the last few games. Their offense has struggled to move the football with any consistency, leaving their defense on the field far too long. I look for them to do a better job of managing that on Thursday night. The first meeting between these two teams this season totaled 45 points. We're dealing with a higher total than we saw on that day - I believe it will prove to be too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-07-16 | Bills v. Seahawks -7 | 25-31 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Buffalo at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Seahawks on Monday night. Here's an interesting angle, similar to the one we used in our favor with the Falcons on Thursday night; the SU winner has gone 23-0-1 ATS in all games involving the Bills going back to the start of last season. I'm confident the Seahawks will be able to get by Buffalo in this spot, and I won't hesitate to lay the points. Buffalo's defense has been virtually non-existent in the last couple of weeks, allowing a whopping 69 points. I'm not sure the Bills have the personnel in place to bounce back in that department this week. The Seahawks have been struggling, particularly on offense, but all indications are that QB Russell Wilson is as healthy as he's been in weeks. Defensively, they're missing a couple of key cogs but I don't believe those absences will cost them against an uneven Bills offense. If Seattle wants to be considered one of the teams to beat in the NFC, and a Super Bowl contender, this is a game it has to have. The Seahawks haven't been a good bet this season, but neither have the Bills for that matter. I'm willing to give the home side the benefit of the doubt in this one. Take Seattle (10*). |
|||||||
11-06-16 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
My selection is on Denver over Oakland at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Broncos in Oakland on Sunday night. Denver is dealing with a number of key injuries right now and Aqib Talib's absence shouldn't be underestimated. But I do feel the banged up nature of the Broncos defense has been more than factored into this line. This is a big showdown in the AFC West with the two teams coming in with identical 6-2 records. I've been high on the Raiders since the start of the season, but also cashed one of my biggest tickets of the campaign fading them against the Chiefs at home. I simply feel that we'll see the Broncos defense keep the Raiders explosive offense in check. Oakland is coming off back-to-back big performances offensively, but that was against the Jags and Bucs. They'll face a much different animal in this one. On the flip side, the Broncos offense is an underestimated unit right now as far as I'm concerned. Losing RB C.J. Anderson certainly hurt, but rookie QB Trevor Siemian has proven more than capable of carrying the load. Take Denver (10*). |
|||||||
11-06-16 | Jets v. Dolphins -4 | 23-27 | Push | 0 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. Many believe that the bye week came at the wrong time for the Dolphins as they came off consecutive wins. However, I have no faith in the Jets coming off back-to-back wins, and believe we'll see the Fins take care of business in this one. The Fins will be home for the fourth consecutive game here, and that shouldn't be discredited. Meanwhile, New York is off a hard-fought win in Cleveland last week - a game that easily could have gone either way. The Jets took both meetings in this series last season and have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. That hasn't been lost on the oddsmakers. Miami has the personnel in place to take advantage of this matchup. Look for the Fins offense to once again break loose in this one. Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
11-06-16 | Cowboys v. Browns OVER 48.5 | 35-10 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'over' in Dallas' win over the Eagles last Sunday night. There's little reason to jump off that train here in this matchup. The Cowboys should have their way with the Browns defense. They'll likely need to keep it up for four quarters however, as I look for the Browns to find some success offensively in this one, and they'll certainly be highly-motivated. Cleveland will welcome QB Cody Kessler back to the fold. They'll also bring back WR Corey Coleman. If nothing else, that should provide an emotional boost. I don't believe the Browns will shy away from a shootout with the Cowboys here. We're dealing with a relatively high total, but it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-06-16 | Cowboys v. Browns +8.5 | Top | 35-10 | Loss | -130 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Browns plus the points over the Cowboys on Sunday. We missed the mark with the Browns last week at home against the Jets but I won't hesitate to back them again in this matchup. It won't be difficult for Cleveland to get up for this game, that's for sure. I like the fact that the Browns are settled at quarterback with Cody Kessler. I also like the fact that rookie WR Corey Coleman is back in the fold. The Cowboys are coming off a huge divisional win over the Eagles last Sunday night. It's letdown time in this spot. As much as I respect this Dallas squad, I don't believe they should be laying this many points in this spot. Cleveland remains winless on the season but I do believe this is a team that will earn a win this season. This could be the week. Take Cleveland (10*). |
|||||||
11-05-16 | Arizona v. Washington State OVER 65 | Top | 7-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arizona and Washington State at 4 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Pullman on Saturday afternoon. We played the ‘over’ in Arizona’s blowout loss at home against Stanford last Saturday night, and were never really all that close to cashing that ticket. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well here, however. Arizona did welcome Brandon Dawkins and Anu Solomon back from injuries last Saturday, but both showed some rust. In fact, Solomon threw only three passes. Clearly rust was a factor for both quarterbacks. I’m expecting a far more positive performance from the Wildcats as a whole on Saturday. On the flip side, I don’t see the Wildcats slowing down an underrated Cougars offense. Mike Leach has his offense humming once again, having scored at least 35 points in five of the last six games. There’s little reason to anticipate the Cougars slowing down against a very beatable Wildcats defense. In order to topple this total we’re going to need to get plenty of help from Arizona as well, but Washington State has proven vulnerable defensively, and I don’t see that being an issue. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-05-16 | Oregon State v. Stanford OVER 42 | 15-26 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Oregon State and Stanford at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ at The Farm on Saturday afternoon. Last year, Stanford rolled to a 42-24 victory over Oregon State early in the season. We’re dealing with a much lower posted total this time around, largely due to the Beavers struggles and Stanford’s offensive ineptitude. However, the Cardinal did respond last week, scoring 34 points in a blowout win at Arizona. Not surprisingly, it was Stanford’s ground game that led the way, and I expect more of the same against Oregon State. The Beavers battled hard, but ultimately fell by a 35-31 score at home against Washington State last Saturday. It was a step in the right direction for the offense after being held to just 31 points combined in their previous two games. This play is more about the number we’re working with than anything else, that and the belief that Stanford is a better offensive team than it has shown, and that the Beavers won’t roll over in this tough matchup. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-05-16 | Oregon State v. Stanford -14.5 | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
My selection is on Stanford minus the points over Oregon State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We haven’t exactly picked our spots wisely with Stanford this season, in fact, the Cardinal have been a bit of a thorn in our side in a profitable campaign to this point. With that being said, I do like the Cardinal in this spot as they aim to build off last week’s strong showing on the road against Arizona. The last time we saw Stanford line up on this field, it turned in a truly ugly showing in a 10-5 loss against Colorado. Now, the Buffaloes are no pushovers so there was no shame in losing that game. But putting up only five points in a big Pac-12 game at home wasn’t acceptable for this well-coached squad. I liked the way the Cardinal bounced back last Saturday and I’m confident it will keep things rolling against a very beatable opponent here. Oregon State has turned in a pair of strong defensive showings this season against Idaho State and Utah, but that’s about it. Outside of those two contests, they’ve regularly given up 30+ points. I expect a similar story to unfold here, even if the Cardinal have looked punchless on offense at times. We’re being offered reasonable spreads to back what was considered an elite Pac-12 squad at the start of the season right now. I believe Stanford still has a lot of upside and will support it in this matchup. Take Stanford (10*). |
|||||||
11-05-16 | Virginia v. Wake Forest -3 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
My selection is on Wake Forest minus the points over Virginia at 3 pm et on Saturday. I’ll lay the points with the Demon Deacons in this Saturday afternoon matchup. Of course, that victory hasn’t come easy. The Demon Deacons are coming off back-to-back losses, first at Florida State and then last week at home against Army. The loss to Army was disappointing to be sure, but I like Wake’s chances of bouncing back, noting it had gone a perfect 3-0 in its first three home tilts this season. Virginia battled hard against Louisville last week but ultimately fell by a 32-25 score at home. That marked the Cavaliers third consecutive loss and they’ll be hard-pressed to pick themselves up off the mat here. We did cash a ticket with Virginia in an underdog role at Duke earlier this season, but that was a much more positive motivational spot off a win against Central Michigan. I can’t help but feel the Wahoos are down on themselves at this point and can’t see them getting up for the Demon Deacons. Take Wake Forest (10*). |
|||||||
11-05-16 | Texas v. Texas Tech +3 | 45-37 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas Tech plus the points over Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll grab the points with the Red Raiders on Saturday as they try to trip up the Longhorns in a letdown spot off a big win over Baylor. Texas Tech is coming off a big victory of its own, defeating TCU on the road in double-overtime last Saturday. Things won’t get much easier here against Texas, but I believe the Red Raiders will be up to the challenge. Last week’s win snapped Texas Tech’s three-game losing skid, which came on the heels of a 3-1 start to the season. Obviously the Red Raiders weakness is their defense but I’m not convinced Texas will be able to take full advantage. While the Longhorns scored 35 points in last week’s win, they had been held to 27 and 21 points over their previous two contests. They’re not an offensive juggernaut by any means, and I don’t believe they’re well-suited to the high-scoring affair the Red Raiders could bait them into here. Take Texas Tech (10*). |
|||||||
11-04-16 | San Jose State v. Boise State -29 | 31-45 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boise State minus the points over San Jose State at 10:15 pm et on Friday. This is a big game for the Broncos after they were stunned by Wyoming on the road last week. I look for Boise State to put its best foot forward in this bounce-back spot, and ultimately blow away the overmatched Spartans. San Jose State has won two of its last three games, but those victories came against Nevada and UNLV. The Spartans will obviously be facing a much tougher challenge here. Boise State has certainly had San Jose State's number, having taken five straight meetings in this series ATS. The Spartans simply haven't shown the ability to stop any offense on the road this season, allowing 45, 44, 48 and 42 points. At least they've been consistent. I believe they'll have a hard time improving on those numbers here. Look for Boise State to come out strong and never look back in this one. The Spartans just don't have the personnel to stay in this one for four quarters on Friday night. Take Boise State (10*). |
|||||||
11-03-16 | UCLA +13.5 v. Colorado | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Colorado at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the points with the Bruins in Boulder on Thursday night. UCLA has essentially played just one bad game this season. Yet, here the Bruins sit at 3-5 on the campaign, on the heels of three straight losses. I do believe the Bruins will approach this as a winnable game. They've been right there in each game during their three-game slide, losing by a touchdown or less on each occasion. Colorado is coming off a bye week, which didn't exactly come at an ideal time as it was rolling prior to that, fresh off back-to-back wins over Arizona State and Stanford. The Buffaloes haven't dropped the cash since November 21st of last year. But considering the blueprint has been laid out for slowing them down offensively, they're being asked to lay an awful lot of points on this occasion. These two teams have met in each of the last five seasons and UCLA has won each and every game. Maybe the Buffaloes get back at them here, but I don't see them covering the number. Take UCLA (10*). |
|||||||
11-03-16 | Falcons -3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Tampa Bay at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Falcons on Thursday night as they try to make it two wins in a row and avoid a series sweep at the hands of the Bucs this season. It's interesting to note that the SU winner is a perfect 7-0 ATS in all Falcons games this season, and an incredible 22-1 ATS going back to the start of last season. I believe the Falcons are the superior team here, and I'm confident supporting that trend for another week. A lot has changed for these two teams since the Bucs upset the Falcons in Atlanta back in Week 1. It's been an up and down campaign for Tampa Bay but with a win here it would pull itself back to the .500 mark and within one game of Atlanta in the NFC South standings. I'm just not sure the Bucs have the personnel on hand to accomplish that, however. Tampa Bay is down to its fourth-string at running back. Jacquizz Rodgers had done a nice job filling in for Doug Martin and Charles Sims over the last two games, but he won't be able to play on Thursday due to a foot injury. The lack of a consistent ground game will hamper Jameis Winston and the Bucs aerial attack, especially against a strong Falcons pass rush. Atlanta is dealing with its share of injuries as well, also at the RB position where it will be without its touchdown leader Tevin Coleman. In spite of that, I look for the Falcons to move the ball up and down the field, leaning heavily on RB Devonta Freeman and of course WR Julio Jones, who caught just three passes last week. The Falcons have battled on the road this season, going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. I believe they're on the cusp of being an elite team in the NFC and I look for them to take another step in the right direction on Thursday. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
10-31-16 | Vikings -4 v. Bears | 10-20 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Chicago at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Vikings on Monday night. Minnesota is coming off a tough 21-10 road loss to the Eagles last week - its first setback of the season. The Vikes gift-wrapped that game for the Eagles with a number of key turnovers. I'm anticipating a much cleaner performance from them on Monday, however. Chicago has lost three straight games, including a 26-10 blowout loss in Green Bay last week. Things obviously won't get any easier here. The Bears defense employed a bend but don't break strategy against the Packers and held up well on the goal line but this is certainly a unit that can be exposed. Most probably don't believe the Vikes are built to put many points on the board in such a setting, but I'm confident they'll do just that in Chicago on Monday. The Vikes went 2-0 SU and ATS in two meetings with the Bears last season, including a 23-20 win here in Chicago. I believe this Minnesota squad is better than last year's edition and I'm confident it can stretch out the margin in this spot. Take Minnesota (10*). |
|||||||
10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 40.5 | 10-20 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in Chicago on Monday. When you think of the Vikings, the first thing that probably comes to mind is defense. And rightfully so. However, I look for the Vikes offense to bust out against the Bears in Chicago on Monday. Minnesota turned in its worst offensive showing of the season by far last week in Philadelphia. Sloppy play ruled that contest but I'm anticipating a much sharper effort from the well-coached Vikes in this division matchup. The Bears will start Jay Cutler on Monday night, and he'll obviously have no shortage of motivation. I do feel that Cutler's presence makes the Bears offense better, even if most of the Chicago faithful believe otherwise. The Vikings defense has been outstanding this season but did show some chinks in its armor last week and is dealing with some key injuries. Keep in mind, the two meetings in this series last year produced 43 and 55 points. The 'under' is still 4-1 in the last five matchups between these two NFC North foes but that's certainly been factored into this number. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-30-16 | Eagles v. Cowboys -4.5 | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Philadelphia at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. The road team has owned this series, taking each of the last six meetings. I look for that trend to change on Sunday, however. The Eagles are coming off a big win over the Vikings last Sunday but that game was essentially gift-wrapped for them. Don't count on the Cowboys to be nearly as forgiving on Sunday. Dallas is coming off its bye week and certainly isn't without its share of controversy with QB Tony Romo returning to practice this week. I don't expect Romo's presence at practice to have an adverse effect on rookie Dak Prescott, however. In fact, I believe we'll see Prescott come out focused and eager to retain his starting job. Philadelphia hasn't performed well on the road this season, with its lone victory coming against a weak Bears squad. Eagles QB Carson Wentz has been mired in a bit of a slump lately and they don't have a ground game to speak of. I simply feel we'll see the Cowboys make the big plays down the stretch - on both sides of the football - and ultimately secure a win here. Take Dallas (10*). |
|||||||
10-30-16 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 42.5 | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Dallas on Sunday night. The Eagles put up 21 points in last week's big win over the Vikings at home, even if it had little to do with the offense. Rookie QB Carson Wentz struggled once again but did just enough to guide his team to victory. I expect a better showing from Wentz here as he'll obviously be up for this matchup with the rival Cowboys - the first time he's faced them in his NFL career. Early in this game at least, I'm confident he'll make some big plays for the Eagles offense. On the flip side, I'm looking for another big performance from the Cowboys offense. Tony Romo returned to practice this week and could be close to returning but that should only fuel the fire of rookie QB Dak Prescott. All indications are that Prescott isn't feeling the pressure of playing in front of a proven QB like Romo. And it doesn't hurt that the Cowboys will likely have WR Dez Bryant back on the field, not to mention arguably the best running back in football right now, rookie Ezekiel Elliott. The 'under' has cashed in the Cowboys last three games but I don't see that trend continuing here. In fact, it works in our favor as it helps to keep this total down, as does the fact that the Eagles are coming off a low-scoring affair against defensive-minded Minnesota. The last time the Eagles and Cowboys hooked up they combined to score 60 points in an overtime affair last November. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-30-16 | Jets v. Browns +3 | Top | 31-28 | Push | 0 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over New York at 1 pm et Sunday. The Jets are in complete disarray right now. So are the Browns, but at least expectations weren't all that high to begin with. I simply feel that Cleveland is in better position to get going from a standing start than New York is in this matchup. The Browns are 0-7 on the campaign but how many of those seven games could we have possibly expected them to win? I would say one - that being a home game against the Ravens in Week 2. Cleveland actually hung tough in that one, leading the game entering the fourth quarter, but ultimately fell five points short. Cleveland faced a highly-motivated Bengals squad on the road last week and got caught flat-footed, also losing its starting QB. Here, the Browns are expected to get a veteran presence back under center in Josh McCown. It's a start. The Jets are riddled with injuries right now and Ryan Fitzpatrick is set to take over the reins again at quarterback whether head coach Todd Bowles likes it or not. I believe the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored here. Take Cleveland (10*). |
|||||||
10-30-16 | Seahawks v. Saints OVER 48 | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in the Big Easy on Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks are coming off a disappointing 6-6 tie in Arizona last Sunday night, but I look for them to bust out offensively as the scene shifts to the SuperDome in New Orleans on Sunday. Everyone is quick to refer to the Seahawks as a 'struggling' offensive team, even though they had produced at least 26 points in three straight games prior to last week's contest. That's not to mention the fact that most see the Seahawks as an elite defensive squad. But this is a defense that is dealign with some key injuries with Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett sidelined. New Orleans had some big plays, but was ultimately held down by the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium last Sunday. With that being said, outside of a no-show against the Giants in New York, the Saints offense has been rolling all season. They'll certainly be up for this matchup with perennial NFC contenders the Seahawks. When these two teams last met in the playoffs in 2014 they combined to score just 38 points. We're dealing with a much higher posted total this time around, but it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-29-16 | Stanford v. Arizona OVER 49.5 | 34-10 | Loss | -119 | 27 h 30 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday Late Night O/U Bailout. My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and Arizona at 11 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Arizona on Saturday night. Stanford is coming off an ugly 10-5 home loss against Colorado last week. In fact, the Cardinal offense has been a big disappointment all season. This does look like a fine 'get right' opportunity, however. After being held to 17 points or less in four straight games against tough defensive opponents, I look for the Cardinal to bust out here. Arizona hasn't stopped anyone this season. The Wildcats have allowed at least 35 points in four straight games. Arizona is expected to have both Anu Solomon and Brandon Dawkins back at its disposal on Saturday, which is obviously key after the Wildcats struggled at the quarterback position last time out against USC. While the Wildcats offense has been on the decline, Arizona has showed plenty of spark this season, scoring at least 28 points on three different occasions. The last two meetings in this series reached 102 and 72 points (the first of those matchups came in 2012 with the latter coming last season). I believe we're dealing with a reasonable number here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-29-16 | Washington v. Utah +10.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Washington at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Utes at home against the undefeated Huskies on Saturday afternoon. Utah took this matchup last year, delivering a 34-23 road win as a field goal underdog. In fact, the underdog is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in three all-time meetings in this series. The Huskies are off to a perfect 7-0 start and haven't actually been tested since an overtime win at Arizona on September 24th (we won with the Wildcats on that night). I'm not sure that plays in their favor here. The Utes are playing their best football of the season having won three games in a row. They're back home for the first time since delivering a 13-point win over Arizona on October 8th. In fact, Utah is a perfect 4-0 at home this season. The Huskies haven't just been the talk of the Pac-12 this year, they've been a national story. Few are paying much attention to the Utes, on the other hand, but they do warrant the attention. Look for them to make a statement here. Take Utah (10*). |
|||||||
10-28-16 | San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 44 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -114 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego State and Utah State at 8 pm et on Friday. San Diego State crushed Utah State in last year's meeting - a loss the Aggies certainly haven't forgotten as it sent them into a tailspin that some would say they still haven't recovered from. Here, Utah State will be looking to exact some revenge but I'm not sure they'll be able to do that with standout RB Devonte Mays still not back at full strength. I do expect the Aggies to hang in a little tougher against the nation's leading rusher Donnell Pumphrey. They were ripped to shreds by the RB in last year's matchup, but that was a banged-up Aggies defense. They're at close to full strength now and I'm confident they'll do a better job of at least slowing Pumphrey down. On the flip side, the Aztecs are down a couple of key cogs in their secondary but I'm not sure the Aggies offense can take advantage. Utah State has struggled to complete passes with any consistency since losing RB Mays. It should be another grind on Friday night against a quality Aztecs defense. The 'under' has cashed in San Diego State's last three games. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 2-0 in the Aggies last two contests. We're dealing with a relatively low total here, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-27-16 | California v. USC UNDER 75.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between California and USC at 10:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Los Angeles on Thursday night. We missed with the 'under' in Cal's most recent game - a wild 52-49 overtime win over Oregon last week. We did deserve a better fate in that one but were ultimately foiled by overtime. Here, I'm willing to go back to the well as I have a lot of respect for the Trojans defense. If anyone is going to slow down the rolling Cal offense, it's USC. The Trojans got steamrolled by Alabama back in the opening week of the season but since then they've tightened up in spite of a tough schedule. Over their last two games, the Trojans gave up just 31 points against Colorado and Arizona. The 'under' has cashed in each of their last three and five of their last six games overall. Cal is capable of playing some defense and I see this as a favorable matchup against a relatively inconsistent USC offense. Note that Trojans standout WR JuJu Smith-Schuster continues to go at less than 100% due to an ailing back. Last year's meeting between these two teams totaled just 48 points. Two years ago they reached 68 points. The oddsmakers can't help but hang out a high total here based on Cal's recent results. I'm just not sure such a high number is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-27-16 | Jaguars v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 101 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Jacksonville at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Titans on Thursday night. This may not be the most intriguing matchup on paper but the fact is, it's a big one in the AFC South. The Jags are reeling right now. Or at least that's the way it seems if you listen to their fans or the media. The fact is, they had won consecutive games prior to dropping an ugly 33-16 decision at home against the Raiders last Sunday. But those wins weren't pretty. The first came in England against a wildly inconsistent Colts squad and the second came on the road in come-from-behind fashion versus an awful Bears team. The Titans have been an awful bet in recent years, and check into this one on a 1-4 ATS slide. They dropped a tough one at home against the Colts last Sunday but I believe the short week works in their favor here as they quickly look to make amends in another division game. The thing that has encouraged me about the Titans this season is that despite some inconsistency from QB Marcus Mariota, they have been putting points on the board. Note that they've scored at least 26 points in three straight games, seemingly getting better with each passing week after a slow start to the season. The Titans rarely win at home, let alone win by margin. But I believe this line could actually be higher, keeping in mind they'll be playing their third straight contest at home and were favored by 7.5 and 4 points against the Browns and Colts respectively the last two weeks. The Jaguars have a ton of pressure on their shoulders right now even if expectations are generally low in Jacksonville. Both head coach Gus Bradley and QB Blake Bortles are on the hot seat right now and another loss here likely results in some changes. I'm not sure we'll see them respond well to that pressure. At this point I just don't believe in the personnel they have on hand. The home team has won four straight meetings in this series. The Titans only managed to win by three at home against the Jags last year, but that was without any semblance of a ground game and what I believe was a weaker defense than they have now. Take Tennessee (10*). |
|||||||
10-24-16 | Texans v. Broncos -7.5 | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Houston at 8:30 pm et on on Monday. You would have to go all the way back to Week 17 in 2014 to find the last time the SU winner suffered an ATS loss in a game involving the Texans. So perhaps the question here is whether you believe the Texans can win this game outright, or do the Broncos bounce back from consecutive losses? I believe we'll see the latter. Houston rallied for a big division win at home against the Colts last Sunday - a game that easily could have gotten away from it. So the Texans should be confident entering this matchup but a tough challenge lies ahead to be sure. Keep in mind, the Texans have been terrible in two previous road games this season, getting blown out at New England and Minnesota. The Broncos got caught flat-footed on the road against an underrated Chargers squad last week. It was QB Trevor Siemian's first game back from injury and he looked out of sync with the offense at times. With that said, the Broncos were still in the game right to the final whistle. I expect to see a strong bounce-back performance from the Broncos offense on Monday night. The Texans haven't been the same team defensively since losing J.J. Watt - that shouldn't come as any surprise. To put it simply, they're not stopping anyone right now. I believe the Broncos have a better offense than most give them credit for. Look for that offense to come up with a few timely scores while the defense does its part as usual. Take Denver (10*). |
|||||||
10-23-16 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 6-6 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Seattle at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Cardinals last Monday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them as they host the Seahawks on Sunday night. Arizona got a solid return from QB Carson Palmer last time out, even if he was battling some conditioning issues after missing time due to a concussion. I expect a sharper performance from Palmer here, even against a tough defense in the Seahawks. Seattle was fortunate to keep its winning streak intact last week, pulling out a narrow 26-24 win over the Falcons. Keep in mind, during the Seahawks three-game winning streak, two wins have come against the likes of the 49ers and Jets - two of the league's worst teams. The Seahawks offense has got rolling lately but its largely been a product of the defenses it has faced. Here, it will face a much tougher challenge. The Cardinals got off to a rotten start this season but they've certainly rounded into form lately. On the heels of back-to-back wins they'll be looking to make a statement here. They can ill afford to fall back below the .500 mark at this stage of the season. The road team has won five of the last six meetings in this series and that's certainly been factored into this line. I simply feel that the Cards are well-equipped to handle a banged-up Seahawks team here. Take Arizona (10*). |
|||||||
10-23-16 | Bucs v. 49ers UNDER 46.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday Afternoon Total Dominator. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in San Francisco on Sunday afternoon. The Bucs are coming off their bye week, which came on the heels of a big 17-14 road win over the Panthers on Monday Night Football. Yes, the Panthers were without Cam Newton in that game, but credit the Bucs for allowing just two touchdowns in a tough road matchup. Tampa Bay draws another favorable matchup here as the 49ers continue to struggle. San Francisco will turn to Colin Kaepernick under center once again. He showed plenty of rust in a shaky performance last week in Buffalo but should be sharper against the Bucs. I'm still not sure that equates to a strong offensive showing from the Niners, however. I still don't believe we've seen the Bucs best defense, but they have shown improvement as the season has progressed and the bye week shouldn't hurt their cause. Offensively, Tampa Bay is shorthanded, down its top two running backs on the depth chart and now also without Vincent Jackson. Even though Jackson is no longer the focal point of the offense, he has still served as a security blanket for QB Jameis Winston at times. The 49ers defense has been absolutely ripped by the run this season but after a complete no-show in Buffalo last week, I do look for them to show some pride here. These two teams have met three times since 2010 and all three totals closed at 41. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-23-16 | Saints v. Chiefs -5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday Afternoon ATS Rout. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Chiefs again this week. We cashed one of our biggest plays of the season to date last week as the Chiefs rolled past the Raiders in Oakland. I look for them to keep rolling as they return home to host the Saints on Sunday. New Orleans is coming off back-to-back high-scoring victories. If the Saints are going to win this season, it's likely going to happen in those wild, high-scoring affairs. Their defense simply isn't good enough to win many slugfests. Here, I'm not sure we're in for one of those slugfests. With that being said, I still believe the Chiefs turn in another strong performance. Much has been made of the success of Andy Reid coached teams following the bye week. We saw that trend hold true last week but also worth noting is that in the last two years, the Chiefs have also delivered blowout victories in the week following that post-bye week success. Arrowhead Stadium is still a tough place for opponents and the road hasn't exactly been kind to the Saints in recent years. New Orleans did pull out a win in its most recent road game in San Diego (and we won with the Saints on that day), but that came in wild comeback fashion in a game the Chargers essentially gave away. The Chiefs have a big opportunity in front of them here, something that might have seem lost two games back when they were crushed by the Steelers in a primetime game in Pittsburgh. The Saints have been fun to watch over the last couple of weeks, but I believe they run into a tough defense here. Take Kansas City (10*). |
|||||||
10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 44 | Top | 25-28 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Miami on Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring affairs last week. The Bills have seen the 'over' cash in their last two games, scoring 30 and 45 points in wins over the Rams and 49ers. Meanwhile, the Dolphins offense got rolling against the Steelers last week, putting up 30 points. But make no mistake, this is still a plodding Miami offense as far as I'm concerned. RB Jay Ajayi had a breakout performance last week and essentially carried the offense. The Fins are still content to dink and dunk their way down the field with Ryan Tannehill under center. I'm not convinced the Bills are quite as good offensively as they've shown in the last couple of weeks. They'll face a Fins squad that will certainly have its guard up after allowing a whopping 74 points in two meetings - both losses - last year. Buffalo has played three road games this season, and two of those totaled 20 points or less. Note that prior to last season, the 'under' had cashed in five of the previous six meetings in this series. Expect a return to form here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-22-16 | Washington State v. Arizona State +7.5 | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday Late Night Bailout. My selection is on Arizona State plus the points over Washington State at 10 pm et on Saturday. I’ll grab the points with the Sun Devils on Saturday as they aim to bounce back from last week’s dismantling at Colorado. I do think Arizona State is a far better team than it showed last week in Boulder. The Sun Devils welcomed QB Manny Wilkins back from injury and he didn’t perform well at all. Yes, the Buffaloes put plenty of pressure on him, but he simply couldn’t get back in sync with the offense. I expect him to be much sharper against the Cougars on Saturday. Washington State has played exceptionally well since the onset of Pac-12 play, reeling off three straight wins. The Cougars opened the season with back-to-back losses but have taken off since. While I do have a lot of respect for this team and feel that they’re flying under the radar a little bit, I see this as a difficult spot. The last time the Cougars hit the road they were able to cruise to a surprising 26-point win at Stanford two weeks ago. They were never really challenged in that game, not allowing a touchdown until the third quarter. Here, I look for them to be under pressure all game long as the Sun Devils won’t back down in what should be a tightly-contested affair. Take Arizona State (10*). |
|||||||
10-22-16 | Oklahoma v. Texas Tech OVER 84.5 | 66-59 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Oklahoma and Texas Tech at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Red Raiders laid an egg at home against West Virginia last week. That worked out just fine for our purposes as the game stayed well ‘under’ the posted total. I won’t hesitate to switch gears this week, however, and back the ‘over’ as Oklahoma rolls into Lubbock. The Sooners are led by former Red Raider QB Baker Mayfield and you can be sure he’ll be looking to stick it to his old team on Saturday night after leaving Texas Tech on less than pleasant terms. Oklahoma can score points in bunches against the best of them, and they certainly won’t be facing an elite level defense in Lubbock on Saturday. Last week, the Sooners rolled to a rather ho-hum 38-17 home win over Kansas State – the first time since the third week of the season against Ohio State that they were held to fewer than 45 points. The biggest concern here is whether Texas Tech will be able to get its offense going again after last week’s stinker. I do think the Red Raiders will be jacked up for this showdown – treating it as one of their biggest games of the season – as they should. Keep in mind, this is one of the most prolific offenses in college football in a big bounce-back spot. Even against a big, athletic Sooners defense I’m confident the home side will be able to help this total along, and ‘over’ the lofty number. Take the over (10*). |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Sean Murphy Football Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-28-16 | Northwestern v. Pittsburgh OVER 64.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
12-27-16 | Washington State v. Minnesota OVER 61 | 12-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 27 m | Show | |
12-26-16 | Vanderbilt v. NC State OVER 45 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 44.5 | 27-31 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
12-24-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Hawaii OVER 69.5 | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 54 h 21 m | Show | |
12-24-16 | Colts v. Raiders OVER 52.5 | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 50 h 4 m | Show | |
12-24-16 | Titans -4.5 v. Jaguars | 17-38 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
12-24-16 | Falcons -3 v. Panthers | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
12-23-16 | Louisiana Tech v. Navy +7 | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 41.5 | 19-24 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
12-21-16 | BYU v. Wyoming UNDER 57 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
12-20-16 | Memphis v. Western Kentucky OVER 80 | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
12-19-16 | Panthers v. Redskins -7 | 26-15 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
12-18-16 | Patriots -3 v. Broncos | 16-3 | Win | 100 | 43 h 11 m | Show | |
12-18-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +3 | 24-20 | Loss | -100 | 40 h 51 m | Show | |
12-18-16 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 59 m | Show |
12-17-16 | Southern Miss v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 36 m | Show | |
12-17-16 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 37.5 | 34-13 | Loss | -103 | 34 h 13 m | Show | |
12-17-16 | Houston -4 v. San Diego State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
12-15-16 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 38.5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
12-12-16 | Ravens v. Patriots UNDER 44.5 | 23-30 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
12-11-16 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 51 | 11-16 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 18 m | Show | |
12-11-16 | Saints +2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 11-16 | Loss | -100 | 77 h 20 m | Show |
12-11-16 | Texans v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 57 m | Show | |
12-11-16 | Steelers -2 v. Bills | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 59 m | Show |
12-10-16 | Army v. Navy UNDER 47 | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 90 h 23 m | Show | |
12-08-16 | Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 47 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 60 h 15 m | Show |
12-05-16 | Colts v. Jets +2 | 41-10 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
12-04-16 | Redskins +2.5 v. Cardinals | 23-31 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
12-04-16 | Chiefs +6 v. Falcons | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
12-04-16 | Chiefs v. Falcons UNDER 50 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
12-04-16 | Eagles v. Bengals -1.5 | Top | 14-32 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
12-03-16 | San Diego State -6 v. Wyoming | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
12-03-16 | Temple v. Navy UNDER 60.5 | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
12-02-16 | Colorado v. Washington UNDER 56.5 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 44 | 17-15 | Win | 102 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
11-28-16 | Packers +4 v. Eagles | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
11-28-16 | Packers v. Eagles UNDER 47.5 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
11-27-16 | Chiefs v. Broncos -3.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
11-27-16 | Panthers v. Raiders UNDER 50 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
11-27-16 | Cardinals v. Falcons -4 | Top | 19-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
11-26-16 | Utah v. Colorado -9 | 22-27 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
11-26-16 | UCLA v. California UNDER 71 | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
11-25-16 | Arizona State v. Arizona OVER 67.5 | Top | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
11-24-16 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 51 | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 44 h 59 m | Show |
11-24-16 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 43 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 40 h 1 m | Show | |
11-24-16 | Vikings v. Lions -2.5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 40 h 0 m | Show | |
11-21-16 | Texans v. Raiders UNDER 45 | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
11-21-16 | Texans v. Raiders -5.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show | |
11-20-16 | Packers v. Redskins -2.5 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 48 h 16 m | Show | |
11-20-16 | Patriots v. 49ers OVER 51 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 15 m | Show |
11-20-16 | Steelers v. Browns OVER 44.5 | 24-9 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 55 m | Show | |
11-20-16 | Steelers v. Browns +8 | Top | 24-9 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 59 m | Show |
11-19-16 | Arizona v. Oregon State OVER 61 | 17-42 | Loss | -104 | 35 h 7 m | Show | |
11-19-16 | Arkansas v. Mississippi State -1.5 | Top | 58-42 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 28 m | Show |
11-19-16 | Washington State +6.5 v. Colorado | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
11-17-16 | Saints v. Panthers UNDER 52.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
11-17-16 | Louisville v. Houston UNDER 69 | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants UNDER 47.5 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
11-13-16 | Seahawks v. Patriots -7.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
11-13-16 | Cowboys v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -113 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
11-13-16 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 42 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
11-13-16 | Falcons v. Eagles +1 | 15-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
11-12-16 | California v. Washington State UNDER 83.5 | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 32 h 19 m | Show | |
11-12-16 | Stanford v. Oregon OVER 57 | Top | 52-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
11-12-16 | Pittsburgh v. Clemson -20.5 | 43-42 | Loss | -111 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
11-12-16 | Pittsburgh v. Clemson UNDER 65.5 | Top | 43-42 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
11-10-16 | Utah v. Arizona State UNDER 57 | Top | 49-26 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
11-10-16 | Browns v. Ravens UNDER 45 | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
11-07-16 | Bills v. Seahawks -7 | 25-31 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 30 m | Show | |
11-06-16 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
11-06-16 | Jets v. Dolphins -4 | 23-27 | Push | 0 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
11-06-16 | Cowboys v. Browns OVER 48.5 | 35-10 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 20 m | Show | |
11-06-16 | Cowboys v. Browns +8.5 | Top | 35-10 | Loss | -130 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
11-05-16 | Arizona v. Washington State OVER 65 | Top | 7-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
11-05-16 | Oregon State v. Stanford OVER 42 | 15-26 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
11-05-16 | Oregon State v. Stanford -14.5 | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
11-05-16 | Virginia v. Wake Forest -3 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
11-05-16 | Texas v. Texas Tech +3 | 45-37 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
11-04-16 | San Jose State v. Boise State -29 | 31-45 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
11-03-16 | UCLA +13.5 v. Colorado | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
11-03-16 | Falcons -3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
10-31-16 | Vikings -4 v. Bears | 10-20 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 40.5 | 10-20 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
10-30-16 | Eagles v. Cowboys -4.5 | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
10-30-16 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 42.5 | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
10-30-16 | Jets v. Browns +3 | Top | 31-28 | Push | 0 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
10-30-16 | Seahawks v. Saints OVER 48 | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
10-29-16 | Stanford v. Arizona OVER 49.5 | 34-10 | Loss | -119 | 27 h 30 m | Show | |
10-29-16 | Washington v. Utah +10.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
10-28-16 | San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 44 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -114 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
10-27-16 | California v. USC UNDER 75.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
10-27-16 | Jaguars v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 101 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
10-24-16 | Texans v. Broncos -7.5 | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show | |
10-23-16 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 6-6 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
10-23-16 | Bucs v. 49ers UNDER 46.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
10-23-16 | Saints v. Chiefs -5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 44 | Top | 25-28 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
10-22-16 | Washington State v. Arizona State +7.5 | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show | |
10-22-16 | Oklahoma v. Texas Tech OVER 84.5 | 66-59 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |