Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-14-17 | Nevada +24.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 42-44 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Mountain West Game of the Year. My selection is on Nevada plus the points over Colorado State at 10:15 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with Nevada as it travels to Colorado Springs to face the Rams on Saturday night. Nevada is slowly working its way back to respectability in the Mountain West. After starting the campaign with five straight losses, the Wolf Pack responded with a big two-touchdown win over Hawaii last week. Nevada has been pegged as the underdog in all but one of its six games this year so the situation it faces on Saturday is nothing new. Colorado State has impressed so far, going 4-2, although we actually cashed a ticket fading the Rams in their ugly 17-3 loss to rival Colorado. Coming off back-to-back double-digit road wins over Hawaii and Utah State, it's no surprise the Rams are laying a big number here. I'm just not sure the steep line is warranted as the Wolf Pack offense begins to find its identity. You would have to go back seven years to find the last time we saw a true blowout in this series, and that was in favor of Nevada. Take Nevada (10*). |
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10-14-17 | Baylor +26 v. Oklahoma State | 16-59 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baylor plus the points over Oklahoma State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Everyone jumped off the Baylor bandwagon early in the campaign as the Bears dropped their first two games against the likes of Liberty and Texas-San Antonio, albeit by close margins. Since then, the Bears have continued to pile up losses, but have at least played better, staying competitive against Duke, Oklahoma and Kansas State. Baylor has controlled this particular series, having taken the last three meetings. Of course, the Bears are a different team this year and Oklahoma State is seen as a major force in the Big 12 having posted a 4-1 record, but just 1-1 against conference opponents. I just don't see the Cowboys running away and hiding in this one. The Bears are playing with a little more confidence right now and are certainly hungry for their first victory of the season. While I'm not going to call for the outright upset, I do think Baylor can be a thorn in Oklahoma State's side on Saturday afternoon. Take Baylor (10*). |
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10-14-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Army OVER 47 | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Michigan and Army at 12 noon et on Saturday. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years. The Eagles and Black Knights have met three times since 2012, with those three games totaling 86, 75 and 94 points. With that being said, the 'under' has cashed in each of Eastern Michigan's last eight games going back to last season. However, the Eagles have faced a number of defensive-minded squads so far this year. While Army can get involved in its share of slugfests, that hasn't been the case lately, as the Black Knights have scored 35 and 49 points in their last two games, with the 'over' cashing in both of those contests. Expect more of the same on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-13-17 | Clemson v. Syracuse OVER 56 | 24-27 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Clemson and Syracuse at 7 pm et on Friday. These two teams have combined to record a 9-3 'under' mark so far this season but I'm going to go the other way and back the 'over' at the Carrier Dome on Friday night. Clemson hasn't really exploded offensively since hanging 47 points on Louisville a month ago. But this looks like a fine spot for the Tigers to get rolling offensively. Syracuse has only managed to hold two opposing offenses at bay this season, and those were Central Connecticut State and Central Michigan. The Orange will be facing a much different level of competition here. I do have some confidence in the Orange offense putting points on the board here. We've seen Syracuse step up in similar weeknight matchups over the years and here they catch the Tigers off three consecutive stellar defensive efforts, allowing 7, 17 and 14 points over their last three games. I believe we're in for a bit of a shootout on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | 28-23 | Loss | -125 | 24 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina minus the points over Philadelphia at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Panthers in this spot. Carolina was embarrassed the last time we saw it play on this field, dropping a blowout decision at the hands of the division rival Saints. Here, I anticipate a much better showing from the Panthers as they aim for their third straight victory. The Eagles are rolling along nicely right now, winners of three games in a row. They weren't challenged in last week's rout of the struggling Cardinals at home but they'll face a much tougher test here. I see this as the game where the Eagles really missing RB Darren Sproles. While Philadelphia has complimented QB Carson Wentz with more weapons this year, I'm not sure we'll see Wentz reach the heights he has over the last couple of weeks. I'll call for the Panthers to turn in their most complete effort of the season to date. Take Carolina (10*). |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 40 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I simply feel that this total has been set too high. The Vikings are obviously missing a number of key pieces on offense. It showed last week as they managed only seven points in a home loss against the Lions. I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat on offense this week as they hit the road for the first time in three games. Meanwhile, the Bears will turn to Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. It's the right move to displace an ineffective Mike Glennon but I'm not sure we'll see them light up the scoreboard with Trubisky at the helm either. Yes, the Bears have a dynamic ground attack led by Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen but I look for the Vikings vaunted defense to hold that duo at bay. Take the under (10*). |
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10-08-17 | Ravens +3 v. Raiders | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
NFL Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Ravens in an underdog role as they come off back-to-back no-shows and hit the road to face the reeling Raiders in Oakland. Many considered the Raiders to be a Super Bowl contender prior to the start of the season but that was with a healthy Derek Carr under center. With Carr sidelined and the Raiders ground game struggling, I'm not sure they're deserving of the favorite role on Sunday afternoon. I like the coaching edge the Ravens have in this contest with John Harbaugh matching x's and o's with Jake Del Rio. If there ever were a spot for the Ravens to prove their worth on both sides of the football, this is it. I'm not sold on the Raiders winning with E.J. Manuel at quarterback. Their defense can only carry them so far. I like the Ravens in a grinder on Sunday afternoon. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The line has flipped in this one but I don't believe the move is warranted. The Browns are coming off an ugly blowout loss at home against Cincinnati last Sunday but I'm confident they'll bounce back against the Jets this week. I had Cleveland pegged as a surprise team at the start of the season but it certainly hasn't played out that way as it remains winless. I still see potential in the Browns, however, and QB DeShone Kizer in particular. Meanwhile, the Jets are who we thought they were. Yes, they're off to a respectable 2-2 start but I don't believe they're a quality football team. Here, I expect them to fall back to earth as they hit the road for the first time in three games. The Jets got past the Browns by a field goal here in Cleveland last season. The shoe is on the other foot this time around. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
NFL AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Bengals as they host the surprising 3-1 Bills on Sunday afternoon. I expect Buffalo's lead atop the AFC East to be short-lived. The Bills caught a favorable spot against the Broncos two weeks ago at home, and managed to stage an upset win. Last week's victory came as more of a shock, however, as they went into Atlanta and beat the defending NFC champions. While they have all the momentum in the world heading into this one, I expect to see them fall flat against the Bengals. Cincinnati earned its first victory of the young season last week in Cleveland. They can't be satisfied after that blowout win, however. Cincinnati does own a solid home field advantage and its been years since it last opened the campaign with three consecutive losses at home. The pressure is on in some sense but it's not as if anyone is running away with the AFC North. The road team has won in this matchup in each of the last two seasons. This time around, it's the Bengals that have revenge on their minds as they suffered a 16-12 home defeat against the Bills last year. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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10-07-17 | Michigan State +10.5 v. Michigan | Top | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 30 h 37 m | Show |
CFB TV Game of the Week. My selection is on Michigan State plus the points over Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. A big matchup in the Big Ten awaits at the Big House on Saturday night with the Wolverines installed as considerable favorites against the rival Spartans. I simply feel the line is too high as Sparty will be highly motivated to take down still undefeated Big Blue. Michigan has gone largely untested since opening the season with a rout of Florida. As for Michigan State it picked itself up off the mat following an ugly 38-18 home loss to Notre Dame, slipping past Iowa by a 17-10 score last Saturday. That win certainly didn’t win over many doubters but a victory here would. A tough schedule lies ahead for Michigan State this month with three of four games coming on the road. Look for it to at the very least get October off to a positive start by hanging tough against the Wolverines on Saturday. Take Michigan State (10*). |
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10-07-17 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina UNDER 63 | Top | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Notre Dame and North Carolina at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. After getting off to a hot start offensively this season, North Carolina has cooled off considerably over the last two games and I’m not sure we’ll see the Tar Heels pick themselves up off the mat against an elite opponent in Notre Dame on Saturday afternoon. A more likely ‘get right’ matchup will come next week as UNC hosts Virginia. Notre Dame hasn’t faced any resistance over the last three weeks, scoring 49, 38 and 52 points in reeling off three consecutive victories. While the Tar Heels certainly aren’t known for their defensive ability I do expect them to show up in that regard here. They had very little success against the Georgia Tech option offense last Saturday but should bounce back against an Irish offense that could be in for a letdown. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-17 | West Virginia v. TCU -13 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on TCU minus the points over West Virginia at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. West Virginia is off to a solid 3-1 start this season but who have the Mountaineers really beat? Their latest victory came on the road against Kansas two weeks ago. In their lone step up game, the Mountaineers fell short by a 31-24 score on the road against Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, TCU is a legitimate top 10 team in the nation, off to a perfect 4-0 start and essentially announcing its arrival in a 44-31 road win over Oklahoma State two weeks ago (we won with the Horned Frogs in that game). This is a bit of a tough spot with a trip to Manhattan to face Kansas State on deck next Saturday but I believe TCU will be up to the challenge. We’re being asked to lay a considerable number of points considering these are two nationally ranked squads, but I believe the number could be even higher. Take TCU (10*). |
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10-06-17 | Memphis v. Connecticut UNDER 72 | 70-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Storrs on Friday night. The thinking here is that UConn is capable of trading points with Memphis, I'm just not sure that's how this will play out on the field. Yes, the Tigers defense has looked terrible so far this season. But the schedule-makers haven't done them any favors. I do see this as a favorable matchup against a good but not great Huskies offense. Meanwhile, UConn checks in 1-3 on the season and gave up a season-high 49 points in last week's loss at SMU. Expect a stronger performance from the Huskies defense this time around. The last meeting between these two teams three years ago totaled only 51 points. This total is inflated in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs +6 | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over New England at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. The Patriots are generally a good bet coming off a loss. We won with New England following its home opening loss to the Chiefs, as it rolled past New Orleans the next week. I'm not sure we'll see the same story play out here, however. The Pats defense is struggling, and it's a major problem right now. The Bucs have the type of offense that is capable of taking advantage. While I'm not sure how well the Tampa Bay defense will hold up against a New England offense that is sure to add a few wrinkles, I do believe that unit can do enough to keep the Bucs in the game. These two teams haven't met since the 2013 season, and there's no question a lot has changed on the Bucs side of the equation. New England has issues that aren't likely to get sorted out in four days. I like the Bucs to be a thorn in the Pats side on Thursday night. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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10-05-17 | Louisville v. NC State UNDER 66.5 | 25-39 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and N.C. State at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Raleigh on Thursday night. Both of these teams are capable of stopping the run and that's key. The Cardinals have held the opposition to 3.1 yards per rush so far this season while the Wolfpack have been even better in that regard, allowing just 2.9 ypr. Note that the 'under' has cashed in N.C. State's last two games after the 'over' had cashed in its first three contests. As for Louisville, the 'over' has gone 3-1 in its last four games, but that only helps to keep this total in a lofty range on Thursday night. The Cardinals reputation precedes them with Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson under center. They'll get their points in this one, but not enough to topple the total in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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10-02-17 | Redskins +7 v. Chiefs | 20-29 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Kansas City at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with the Redskins as they try to hand the Chiefs their first loss of the season on Monday Night Football. Washington couldn't have looked much better in last week's primetime win over the Raiders. I came away more impressed by the Redskins' defense than anything else in that victory. I certainly expect that defense to play with a chip on its shoulder here as all we've been hearing about all week is how explosive the Chiefs offense has suddenly become. I'm not convinced Kansas City's offensive prowess is sustainable. Remember, a the start of the season a lot of folks were wondering whether Alex Smith was the right man for the job under center. There's some pressure on the Chiefs now as the league's last remaining undefeated team. I expect the Redskins to keep this one within arm's reach for four quarters. Take Washington (10*). |
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10-01-17 | Giants +3 v. Bucs | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 50 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Giants as they try to earn their first win of the season on Sunday afternoon. Last week we saw the Giants offense finally wake up in the fourth quarter of a tough last second loss in Philadelphia. I do believe the G-Men have a lot to build on following that spirited contest. New York's defense is better than it showed in that loss and I'm confident we'll see a bounce-back in that regard against the Bucs. Tampa Bay got bullied in an ugly road loss in Minnesota last Sunday. The Bucs offense does concern me and should certainly concern the Giants. However, they still haven't sorted out their ground game and until they become multi-dimensional, I'm not sure their aerial attack can really take off. This is certainly a must-win game for the Giants. Maybe they're too dejected to pick themselves up off the mat, but this has always been a proud franchise, and I don't believe we'll see them go down without a fight this season. Take New York (10*). |
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10-01-17 | Eagles v. Chargers -1 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'm not quite as high on the Eagles as some in the early going this season. Yes, they're off to a promising 2-1 start but they almost blew it against a struggling Giants squad last Sunday and they're already dealing with a number of key injuries. The Chargers desperately need a win to at least gain something from their three-game homestand, in their new home no less. Los Angeles did outgain the Chiefs in last week's two-touchdown loss and remember its first two losses this season came by a combined five points. I look for the Chargers to finally get their ground game going against a vulnerable Eagles defense. On the flip side, the L.A. defense is better than it has showed, and I see this as a favorable matchup. Eagles QB Carson Wentz has been rolling, but he faces some resistance here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-01-17 | Bills v. Falcons OVER 48.5 | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This will probably be a popular play on Sunday but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. The Bills finally got their offense in gear against the Broncos vaunted defense, scoring 26 points in a somewhat surprising victory. Here, I look for them to build on that performance against a Falcons defense that has allowed 4.8 yards per rush so far this season. The Buffalo defense has held up well to this point, but that unit will be in for a test here. The Falcons didn't play their best game last week in Detroit but still managed to score 30 points. Through three games, all victories, the Falcons have put up a whopping 87 points this season. The last time they faced the Bills four years ago they scored 34 points in a thrilling overtime victory on the road. We're dealing with a fairly high posted total but I believe it could be even higher. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-17 | Clemson v. Virginia Tech UNDER 51 | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Clemson and Virginia Tech at 8 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Blacksburg on Saturday night. Both of these teams are off to perfect 4-0 starts and both have enjoyed plenty of success offensively. Here, I’m anticipating a bruising battle, however. Lost in the Tigers perfect start is the fact that they’ve given up a grand total of 37 points, with 21 of those coming in an impressive blowout win on the road against Louisville. This won’t be the Tigers toughest test of the young season as far as I’m concerned and I’m confident they’ll hold up well against a good but not great Hokies offense. Virginia Tech, like Clemson, has done a terrific job defensively, allowing only 41 points through four games, highlighted by two shutouts along the way. This will without question be their toughest challenge of the young season and while playing at home helps, I certainly don’t expect to see the Hokies light up the scoreboard against an excellent Clemson defense. The last matchup between these two teams was a 42-35 shootout in favor of Clemson in last year’s ACC Championship Game. I’m not expecting a similarly high-scoring affair this time around. Take the under (10*). |
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09-30-17 | UTEP v. Army -23 | 21-35 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Army minus the points over UTEP at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with Army, by a single point, in last week’s disappointing loss at Tulane, but I fully expect to see the Black Knights respond with a big effort in a very winnable home game against UTEP this Saturday. The Miners are one of the weakest teams in FBS, entering this one on the heels of four consecutive losses to open the season, outscored by a 191-51 margin. I don’t expect them to fare much better against Army’s option attack. This is a key spot for the Black Knights to stop the bleeding on the heels of two straight losses, both on the road. We haven’t seen glimpses of the team that scored 64 points despite not completing a single pass back in its season opener. However, this is a very favorable matchup for that Army offense that will be eager to get rolling again after struggling to find the end zone in the last two weeks. It wasn’t for lack of trying last Saturday at Tulane, as the Black Knights rolled up 371 rush yards. This time around, I’m confident we’ll see Army finish more drives with seven points on the board and ultimately pull away from a hapless UTEP squad. Take Army (10*). |
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09-30-17 | Georgia v. Tennessee +8 | Top | 41-0 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
CFB SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Georgia at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We’ve won with Georgia in two of the last three weeks but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and fade the Bulldogs as they hit the road as a favorite in Tennessee on Saturday afternoon. The Bulldogs faced zero resistance against Mississippi State last Saturday. That won’t be the case here as the Volunteers will be high on motivation after losing in last-second fashion in Florida two weeks ago and then barely getting past UMass in an ugly affair last week. I’m still not sure we’ve seen the Vols best effort this season but this is as good a spot as any for them to put their best foot forward, so to speak. With a home game against South Carolina on deck next week, the Vols have a chance to go on a bit of a run before a likely loss on the road against Alabama. Georgia has a similar path ahead of it should it be able to secure a victory here. Noting that Tennessee took last year’s meeting by a 34-31 score, I don’t expect a win to come easy for the Bulldogs in this spot. I’ll grab the points in what should be a tightly-contested affair. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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09-29-17 | USC v. Washington State OVER 61.5 | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between USC and Washington State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. USC had no trouble getting past Washington State in last year's meeting, rolling to a 44-17 victory. That was the second consecutive 'under' result in this series, but I expect a different story to unfold as they meet on Friday night in Pullman. We've kept a close eye on the Cougars this season, and so far, it certainly seems as if their defense has taken a step back, as expected. That doesn't bode particularly well as they prepare to face a Trojans offense that can put points on the board in a hurry. The good news for Washington State is, it has a veteran QB in Luke Falk that after a brief hiccup early in the season, has settled in to throw for just shy of 1,400 yards, 14 touchdowns and just one interception. We're dealing with a high total in this one, but it's warranted in my opinion. I'm anticipating a shootout on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Green Bay at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'm not anticipating anything resembling a shootout between the Bears and Packers at Lambeau Field on Thursday night. Chicago has seen the 'under' cash in each of its first three games this season. If the Bears are going to stick around in this game, they're going to need to do it on the strength of their defense. The dynamic RB duo of Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard can only carry them so far. I expect to see the Packers stack the box and force Mike Glennon to beat them downfield in this one. The Bears defense should find some success against a makeshift Packers offensive line that struggles to keep Aaron Rodgers upright. Rodgers did pull off a nice comeback win against the Bengals last Sunday, making it look easy late. But don't be fooled, this offense is still a bit of a work-in-progress here in the early stages of the season, largely due to that banged up offensive line. The 'under' has cashed in two of the last three meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Cardinals | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Arizona at 8:30 pm et on Monday. Many believe the Broncos laid out the blueprint for beating the Cowboys last Sunday as they loaded up the box and forced Dak Prescott to beat them, which he didn't do. Even if the Cardinals employ a similar gameplan here, I'm not sure they'll get similar results. Look for a much better performance from Prescott this week. The same goes for Ezekiel Elliott, and perhaps more importantly the Cowboys defense, which got shredded by a pedestrian Broncos offense. The Cardinals are fortunate to be 1-1 after outlasting the Colts in overtime last week. I wasn't high on this team at the start of the season (we successfully faded them backing the Lions in Week 1) and I'm certainly not high on them now with their best offensive player, RB David Johnson, sidelined. There's no denying Arizona has a terrific defense. I'm just not convinced it will be enough against a highly-motivated Cowboys squad on Monday night. Take Dallas (10*). |
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09-24-17 | Raiders -3 v. Redskins | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland minus the points over Washington at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with the Raiders in Washington on Sunday night. Perhaps no team was more hyped leading up to the start of the season than the Oakland Raiders. So far, so good as they’re off to a perfect 2-0 start with convincing wins over the Titans and Jets. I like the fact that the Redskins are coming off a road win on the west coast last week as that helps support them as a small underdog in this spot. I simply don’t see this as a favorable matchup for a team that has plenty of flaws. Note that in last week’s victory over the Rams, QB Kirk Cousins threw for only 179 yards and a touchdown. The Redskins ground game ran wild, but that was against the Rams. Here, they’ll face a tougher challenge against a Raiders defense that limited Titans running backs to just 69 yards on 18 rushes two weeks ago (last week’s game against the Jets wasn’t a good comparison). Also note that Redskins RB Rob Kelley was forced to leave last week’s game due to injury. Washington hasn’t had much of a home field advantage in recent years and while the Raiders will get tripped up at some point, I don’t expect to see it happen here. Take Oakland (10*). |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks v. Titans UNDER 41 | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Seattle and Tennessee at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Nashville on Sunday afternoon. Seattle’s offense has sputtered out of the gates this season and until it finds a ground game, it might be a while before it starts scoring points in bunches again. There’s really nothing intimidating about the Seahawks offense right now. The o-line is weak, the wide receiving corps is pedestrian at best, and TE Jimmy Graham is inconsistent at this stage of his career. The good news is, Seattle’s defense is still above average and should be able to handle this matchup with the Titans. We won with the Titans in last week’s rout of Jacksonville. Things really got out of hand for the Jags in that one, but I’m not sure Tennessee was quite as dominant as the final score indicated. I’m still not sold on this Titans offense, which will lean heavily on its ground attack this Sunday. Defensively, the Titans aren’t an elite team, but they’re serviceable, particularly against a Seahawks offense that is still working things out. We’re dealing with a low total but I believe it could be even lower. Take the under (10*). |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | 27-33 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Tennessee at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Titans last week in Jacksonville but I won't hesitate to switch gears as they host the Seahawks on Sunday afternoon. In Week 1, when we backed the Raiders minus the points here in Tennessee I made the point that I didn't believe the Titans were deserving of all the hype. Yes, they play in a watered down AFC South division so there's a good chance they reach the playoffs, but that's where it ends. Here, they'll be up against a highly-motivated Seahawks squad coming off back-to-back less than impressive games to open the campaign. I simply feel that Seattle is more comfortable regardless of the way this one unfolds. The Titans would probably like to turn it into a high-scoring affair, feeling they have the edge on offense, but I'm not convinced it plays out that way on the field. It won't be easy, but I'm confident the Seahawks stay inside the number at the very least and more than likely win outright. Take Seattle (10*). |
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09-24-17 | Saints v. Panthers OVER 46 | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between New Orleans and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. Neither of these offenses put forth their finest effort last Sunday but I’m confident we’ll see both units bounce back to a certain extend this week. The Saints aren’t going to win many games on the strength of their defense this season. That may be an understatement. While New Orleans has faced a tough schedule to open the season, the fact is, it hasn’t even come close to slowing anyone down. I expect a similar story to unfold here. On the flip side, the Panthers offense couldn’t have looked much worse last week. Cam Newton is still shaking off the rust and the ground game really hasn’t taken off yet. This looks like a tremendous ‘get right’ opportunity for this unit, however, even without TE Greg Olsen. I believe this total is a shade lower than it should be. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-17 | Broncos -3 v. Bills | 16-26 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bills are 1-0 at home, but that victory came against the lowly Jets. The Broncos resume is far more impressive as they've reeled off back-to-back home wins over the Chargers and Cowboys. While hitting the road and heading East isn't easy, I expect them to be up to the challenge. Denver is playing with a lot of energy on both sides of the football right now. This is a team that seems to be rejuvenated under the guidance of first year head coach Vance Joseph. As for the Bills, they hung tough against the Panthers last Sunday but that had little to do with their own play and more thanks to the Panthers disjointed start to the season. Things get tougher in this spot and I don't believe the Bills can stick around for four quarters. Take Denver (10*). |
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09-24-17 | Saints v. Panthers -5.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina minus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers didn’t do their backers any favors last week as they escaped with an ugly home win over the Bills. Despite losing TE Greg Olsen to injury in that game, I expect them to turn in a much sharper performance this Sunday as they draw a favorable matchup against a struggling Saints defense. We’ve cashed tickets fading the Saints in each of the last two weeks, noting that the potential is there for them to be one of the league’s weakest teams this season. The offense is still good, but certainly not great. And here New Orleans will run into a Panthers defense that has feasted on the 49ers and Bills over the last two weeks. Yes, Carolina will be taking a step up in class against Drew Brees and company this week, but perhaps not as significant of one as most believe. Last week’s result may have spooked the betting marketplace when it comes to the Panthers. I’m confident we see them respond favorably here. Take Carolina (10*). |
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09-23-17 | UTSA -13 v. Texas State | 44-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas-San Antonio minus the points over Texas State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark fading Texas State last week as Appalachian State didn’t hold up its end of the bargain, but still managed to rally for a SU victory. I am willing to go back to the well this week as we’re being asked to lay a lower number with a UTSA squad that is off to a solid start to the season. Since having their opener cancelled against Houston, the Roadrunners have delivered back-to-back wins over Baylor and Southern, giving up only 27 points while putting up 68 points themselves. I’m not sure Texas State will offer much resistance at all on Saturday. The Bobcats won only two games last season, and while they do have one victory in their back pocket already this year, that came against Houston Baptist. I certainly haven’t come away impressed by losses to Colorado and aforementioned Appalachian State. Through two games, the Bobcats have scored only 16 points and I’m not sure things get much easier in this spot. Take UTSA (10*). |
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09-23-17 | Mississippi State v. Georgia -4 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Mississippi State at 7 pm et on Saturday. Mississippi State shocked everyone by easily brushing aside LSU 37-7 last Saturday but I believe that leaves the Bulldogs overvalued as they head to Athens to face the undefeated Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday evening. Last week’s contest against LSU was really Mississippi State’s first measuring stick game of the season and the Bulldogs passed that test with flying colors. I’m just not sure they can replicate that performance on the road against Georgia this week. The ‘Dawgs didn’t suffer any sort of letdown following their thrilling road win over Notre Dame, delivering a 42-14 victory at home against Samford last Saturday. That was the perfect tune-up for this showdown with Mississippi State as far as I’m concerned. Both of these teams are going to be a factor in the SEC title chase this season, but on this week, I expect Georgia to prove to be the better team. Take Georgia (10*). |
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09-23-17 | Syracuse v. LSU -21 | 26-35 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on LSU minus the points over Syracuse at 7 pm et on Saturday. There’s no question LSU is a better team than it showed in last week’s blowout loss on the road against Mississippi State. Getting back home to face a beatable opponent should serve the Tigers well this week. Perhaps it wasn’t ideal that the Tigers weren’t tested in their first two games this season, easily cruising past BYU and Chattanooga. I do feel that last week’s embarrassment should serve as the wake-up call this team needs. With home games against Syracuse and Troy ahead before traveling to face Florida on October 7th, the Tigers have an excellent opportunity to ‘get right’. Syracuse is off to an up and down start to the campaign, alternating wins and losses against Central Connecticut State, Middle Tennessee and Central Michigan – all at home. This certainly isn’t an ideal first road trip of the season and I don’t believe the Orange will be able to keep within arm’s reach for four quarters. Take LSU (10*). |
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09-23-17 | TCU +14 v. Oklahoma State | 44-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on TCU plus the points over Oklahoma State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Oklahoma State has come storming out of the gates, posting three consecutive wins in blowout fashion. Not the Cowboys face their first ranked opponent of the young season and I believe they’re going to be in for a game. TCU has a chance to go on a real run with West Virginia (home), Kansas State (road) and Kansas (home) on deck. I do like the fact that the Horned Frogs faced a bit of a test against SMU last Saturday, giving away 22 first half points before settling down and putting the game away in the fourth quarter of a wild 56-36 victory. I expect TCU to be much sharper defensively last week, as they’ll have to be against an explosive Cowboys offense. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have a good enough offense to stick around in this one. We’re being given a generous helping of points in a game that could go down to the wire. Take TCU (10*). |
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09-23-17 | Wake Forest v. Appalachian State +6 | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Appalachian State plus the points over Wake Forest at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with Appalachian State last week as the Mountaineers turned in a sloppy performance on the road against Texas State – a game they did manage to win SU nonetheless. I’m confident we’ll see the Mountaineers bounce back at home this Saturday and it won’t be difficult to get up for a matchup with a still-undefeated Wake Forest squad. I’m not going to get too excited by the Demon Deacons’ 3-0 start. Their wins have come at home against Presbyterian and Utah State and on the road against Boston College. Wake has allowed just 27 points through three games but again, that has had a lot to do with the weak schedule it has faced. Here, the Demon Deacons will face a better Mountaineers offense than we saw last week. Appalachian State is battle-tested having opened its campaign on the road against Georgia. Since getting outscored 31-0 in the first three quarters of that game, the Mountaineers have outscored the opposition 84-20. Take Appalachian State (10*). |
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09-23-17 | Boston College +34.5 v. Clemson | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll grab the generous helping of points with Boston College as it travels to Death Valley to face the Clemson Tigers on Saturday afternoon. Of course, Clemson is fresh off an impressive beatdown of Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson and Louisville, on the road no less. Now comes the potential letdown. Keep in mind, the Tigers will hit the road again next week, as they head to Blacksburg for a big showdown with Virginia Tech. They’ll simply be looking to pick up a ‘W’ and move on against Boston College on Saturday. The Eagles weren’t competitive in a 49-20 home loss to Notre Dame last week. That came on the heels of an ugly 34-10 home loss against Wake Forest the week previous. I do expect to see the Eagles play with some pride and maybe a little sandpaper in this spot. We did see that this offense is capable of moving the football last Saturday as the Eagles put points on the board in all four quarters against the Irish. They keep this one a little closer than expected on Saturday afternoon. Take Boston College (10*). |
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09-23-17 | Duke v. North Carolina UNDER 60 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Duke and North Carolina at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in North Carolina’s rout of Old Dominion last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well here as the Tar Heels welcome the Blue Devils to Chapel Hill. Duke is off to a somewhat surprising 3-0 start to the season and while the Blue Devils offense has been terrific, it has been the defense that has impressed me the most. Through three games, Duke has allowed a grand total of only 44 points. Yes, there was a gimme against North Carolina Central in the mix but over the last two weeks, the Blue Devils have held both Northwestern and Baylor in check. Meanwhile, North Carolina has faced a pretty tough early season slate, hosting Cal and Louisville before defeating Old Dominion on the road last week. The Tar Heels know they’ll need to be better defensively in order to take down the Blue Devils and I believe they will be. Offensively, they’ve been better than expected but face a tough challenge here. Most are anticipating a shootout but I believe the total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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09-23-17 | Army +3 v. Tulane | 17-21 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Army plus the points over Tulane at 12 noon et on Saturday. Army shouldn’t be too down on itself after last week’s loss at the hands of the Buckeyes in Columbus. The Black Knights fell by 31 points but certainly didn’t get embarrassed. Here, they get a nice bounce-back matchup with Tulane, albeit on the road once again. The Green Wave got off to a strong start this season, crushing Grambling before hanging tough in an eventual 23-21 loss road loss to Navy, but proceeded to get their clocks cleaned by Oklahoma last Saturday, falling by 42 points. I just don’t see a lot of upside on this Tulane squad and don’t believe they should be laying points against a hungry Army team. Look for the Black Knights ground attack to prove too much for the Green Wave as Army ultimately puts this one away late. Take Army (10*). |
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09-22-17 | Utah -3.5 v. Arizona | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Arizona at 10:30 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Utes as they open Pac-12 play against the Wildcats in Tucson. Arizona will be looking for its third ATS win of the season. Note that the Wildcats managed only two ATS victories all of last year. I don't believe this team has improved all that much - don't be fooled by blowout wins over weak Northern Arizona and Texas El Paso squads. The Wildcats were actually outgained by Northern Arizona in their season opener. On the flip side, Utah is off to a perfect 3-0 start, both SU and ATS, and it has absolutely dominated the opposition, outgaining opponents by 261, 197 and 238 total yards. Utah snapped a four-game losing streak in this series last season, winning by 13 points. The betting marketplace is a little hesitant to install the Utes as a considerable favorite here, but I believe the line could be much higher. Take Utah (10*). |
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09-21-17 | Rams -2.5 v. 49ers | 41-39 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over San Francisco at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. This is another in a long line of ugly Thursday Night Football matchups but that doesn't mean there isn't money to be made. The Rams have been installed as rare road favorites in this one but I believe the line is warranted. Los Angeles is off to an even 1-1 start after opening with back-to-back home games. There's really no shame in that, even though the Rams failed to win in a favorite role against Washington last week. I simply feel the Rams have a lot more upside on both sides of the football than the 49ers do at this stage of the season. We actually won with the 49ers plus the points in Seattle last week. San Francisco's defense held up well in that game, but keep in mind, it was up against a Seahawks squad that is still figuring things out offensively. Much was made of RB Carlos Hyde running for over 100 yards, but consider that 60+ of those yards came on one run. While it's tough to envision the Rams posting a winning record through three games, it's also easy to forget that they opened last season 3-1, including road wins in Tampa Bay and Arizona. The Rams did drop both matchups against the 49ers but that should only serve to give them extra motivation here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 39 | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in San Francisco on Thursday night. Last year, the 49ers didn't post their third 'under' result of the season until November 13th. Here, they have a chance to do it before we even wrap up the third week of September. I don't see it happening, however. The Rams offense has been somewhat inconsistent but has at least shown it can move the football with Jared Goff under center. I'm not sure the 49ers defense is quite as good as advertised and might come in a little high on its horse following a strong showing in Seattle. Keep in mind, we did win with the 49ers plus the points last week. We saw some flashes of brilliance from the Niners offense in the preseason but that hasn't carried over into the regular season as they've yet to score a touchdown. That should change here. I expect to see both teams take some chances in this key early season division game, as they need to figure out what they have offensively and gain some semblance of an identity. The total has been slowly shifting downward and I believe it's reached the point where it's too low. Take the over (10*). |
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09-18-17 | Lions +3 v. Giants | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over New York at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I felt the Lions were an undervalued commodity entering the season - that's why I chose to back them at home against the Cardinals last Sunday. I won't hesitate to get behind them again this week as Detroit heads to New Jersey to face the Giants. Will the Giants offense be fixed? I'm not so sure. Even if Odell Beckham Jr. is able to return I'm not convinced they'll be able to put points the board with any sort of consistency. New York's defense is good, but perhaps not good enough to carry the entire load. Meanwhile, the Lions aren't exactly accustomed to playing in the primetime spotlight, but here and now I believe they're the better team. The line doesn't indicate the same. Take Detroit (10*). |
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09-17-17 | Cowboys -2 v. Broncos | 17-42 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark fading the Broncos on Monday night as the Chargers late rally fell short but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well and go against Denver again as it steps up in class to face the Cowboys on Sunday. Dallas dominated from start to finish in its season opener against the Giants last Sunday night. With that being said, the offense could certainly perform better this week. Jumping ahead early meant we didn’t see the Cowboys really open things up. They’ll be cautious against an elite Broncos defense this week, but I have more confidence in Dak and Zeke to make the big plays at key points of this game than I do in Denver’s underwhelming offense. I’ll certainly give the Broncos credit for putting 24 points on the board against the Chargers on Monday night, however I think the fact that they were held off the scoreboard in the fourth quarter, when they could have put the game away for good, was telling. Against an elite opponent like the Cowboys, I’m not convinced the Broncos will be able to come up with the big offensive plays they’ll need. While the Cowboys are known for their offense, it’s their defense that impresses me the most. This is still an underrated unit, one that I expect to see make a statement on Sunday afternoon in Denver. Take Dallas (10*). |
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09-17-17 | Cowboys v. Broncos UNDER 42 | 17-42 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Dallas and Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is certainly the marquee matchup on the Sunday afternoon NFL board and while everyone may be hoping for an entertaining, high-scoring affair, I’m expecting a defensive slugfest to develop. The Cowboys absolutely manhandled the Giants in a 19-3 victory last Sunday night. Eli Manning did complete 29 passes but for only 220 yards. Paul Perkins was New York’s leading rusher with a whopping 16 yards. In other words, the Cowboys defense appeared to be in midseason form. They draw another favorable matchup here as the Broncos have a terrific WR tandem in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders but not much else. QB Trevor Siemian certainly doesn’t carry much of an intimidation factor. The Broncos defense sagged in the fourth quarter, but still held the Chargers offense in check for most of Monday’s game. Philip Rivers threw for only 192 yards and Melvin Gordon was limited to three yards per carry. Denver will face a tougher challenge trying to contain Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott on Sunday afternoon, but this is a unit that has stepped up in big games time and time again in recent years. Dak and Zeke will ultimately get theirs, but I don’t expect either offense to do enough to push this one ‘over’ the total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-17-17 | Jets v. Raiders -13 | Top | 20-45 | Win | 100 | 43 h 18 m | Show |
AFC Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland minus the points over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We’re being asked to lay a steep number with the Raiders on Sunday but I believe the price is warranted. We cashed a ticket with Oakland last week in its season opener in Tennessee. While there’s a chance the Raiders overlook the lowly Jets here, with this being their home opener I don’t see it happening. Oakland certainly appeared to be in midseason form last Sunday, making a pretty good Titans squad look average, on the road no less. Meanwhile, the Jets looked exactly how we thought they would look. They managed only 12 points with their lone touchdown coming on a one-yard Josh McCown touchdown run. That’s not encouraging. Despite attempting 39 passes, McCown threw for only 187 yards to go along with two interceptions. Their top rusher in the game was Bilal Powell, who managed only 22 yards on the ground. Not good. Defensively, the Jets are capable, but they’ll be up against a Raiders offense that still has room for improvement, even after putting 26 points on the board against the Titans last week. Marshawn Lynch shook off some rust, running for 76 yards on 18 carries last Sunday while Derek Carr was an efficient 22-of-32 for 262 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. It should only be a matter of time before the Raiders pull away for good in this one. Take Oakland (10*). |
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09-17-17 | Titans v. Jaguars | 37-16 | Win | 100 | 40 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. We cashed a ticket fading the Titans last Sunday afternoon but I’ll switch gears and back them as they travel to face the Jaguars on Sunday. Jacksonville has one of the weakest home field advantages in the NFL, in fact it probably shouldn’t be considered an advantage at all. Yes, the Jags looked good in last week’s rout of the Texans in Houston but perhaps that had more to do with the Texans ineptitude than anything else. RB Leonard Fournette is going to be a force for the Jags for years to come and he showed flashes of that promise last Sunday afternoon. He’ll get his against the Titans as well, but I’m not sure it will be enough to overcome QB Blake Bortles’ ineffectiveness. Defensively, I see these two squads as mirror images of one another. However, motivation lies in the Titans corner following last week’s home loss to the Raiders. They’re behind the eight-ball off to an 0-1 start but can make amends with a big early season divisional win on Sunday, and I expect them to accomplish exactly that. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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09-17-17 | Patriots -6 v. Saints | 36-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. We cashed a ticket fading the Saints on Monday night in Minnesota and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well as they return home to host the Patriots on Sunday afternoon. To put it simply, I don’t believe the Saints are going to be a good team this season. Drew Brees is still an elite NFL quarterback but the talent around him is lacking. I certainly wasn’t impressed by the Saints offensive line on Monday night as Brees was under pressure for most of the game and open lanes were few and far between for New Orleans’ stable of running backs. The fact that Alvin Kamara led the team in rush attempts and earned a share of top spot in terms of rushing yards with 18 said a lot. Defensively, the Saints are relying on a lot of young, inexperienced players in key roles and that doesn’t bode well as they prepare to face a Pats squad that has been idle since last Thursday. New England got off to a roaring start before fading in the second half in an eventual rout at the hands of the Chiefs. Needless to say, they’ll have no shortage of motivation heading into this one. Drew Brees owns a 4-3 edge over Tom Brady in seven career meetings and I don’t need to tell you that will serve to sharpen Brady’s focus here. The Saints have owned a considerable home field advantage over the years, but perhaps not as significant in recent seasons. Here I don’t believe it will be enough. Take New England (10*). |
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09-17-17 | Bears v. Bucs OVER 43 | Top | 7-29 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 13 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Chicago and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ as the Buccaneers finally open their season at home against the Bears on Sunday afternoon. The Bears opened with a narrow 23-17 loss to the Falcons last week. There were certainly some positives to take away from that game, however. Yes, the defense held up well, limiting a very good Falcons offense to only two touchdowns, but I came away more impressed by the offense. Maybe ‘impressed’ is a bit of a stretch, but I liked the fact that they made an effort to push the ball downfield, with Mike Glennon attempting 40 passes, not to mention the emergence of RB Tarik Cohen as a versatile runner and pass catcher out of the backfield. RB Jordan Howard got plenty of hype leading into the season, but Cohen was certainly the more electric back last Sunday. It may not last, but for now, I believe the Bears have big play ability with their RB tandem. The Bucs offense has a chance to be really special this season. Adding DeSean Jackson was big, as was drafting TE O.J. Howard. Mike Evans is in line for a career year with QB Jameis Winston continuing his progression. While the Bears pose a tough challenge defensively, I believe the Bucs will be up for it. This total is a shade low as far as I’m concerned. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-17 | Ole Miss v. California OVER 71.5 | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
CFB ESPN O/U Bailout. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Ole Miss and Cal at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Berkeley on Saturday night. This one is being pegged a shootout, and rightfully so. Ole Miss probably isn’t quite as good as it has looked through two games but there’s no denying that the Rebels possess an offense that is capable of putting points on the board in a hurry. Against a Cal squad that won’t shy away from a track meet, I expect Ole Miss to continue to thrive offensively. The Bears have scored 68 points in winning back-to-back games to open the season, including a quality road win against North Carolina two weeks ago. It’s the Bears running game that really exploded against Weber State last week, and I’m confident they’ll be able to move the chains on the ground against a middle of the road Rebels defense as well. Despite facing two lower-tier opponents in South Alabama and Tennesee-Martin to start the season, the Rebels have still allowed 50 points, albeit in two winning efforts. They know that they’ll need to end most drives with seven points on the board if they want to stick around in this game. Likewise for Cal. In a matchup of two teams that need to make the most of their non-conference schedules, I’m anticipating an entertaining, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-17 | Appalachian State -23 v. Texas State | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 19 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Appalachian State minus the points over Texas State at 7 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams come into this matchup sporting 1-1 records but I don’t think there’s any question who the better team is. Appalachian State bounced back from a season opening 31-10 road loss against Georgia with a 54-7 rout of Savannah State last week. It was the perfect warm up for this week’s road trip to face a very beatable Texas State squad. In fact, the Mountaineers have a stretch of winnable games ahead of them now. This game can really serve as a jump-off point provided they don’t overlook the Bobcats. Texas State endured a terrible 2016 campaign and after opening the 2017 season with a 20-11 win over Houston Baptist it was back to business as usual in a 37-3 loss at Colorado last week. Perhaps the Bobcats will be better for that lopsided loss against a far stronger opponent, but I’m not sure this is the matchup where they pick themselves up off the mat. Appalachian State scored 45 points in the first half alone against Savannah State last Saturday and I’m confident they’ll pick up right where they left off against Texas State. The Bobcats don’t have a home field advantage to speak of, and while we’re being asked to lay a fairly steep number, I believe it’s warranted. Take Appalachian State (10*). |
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09-16-17 | Oregon State v. Washington State -21 | 23-52 | Win | 100 | 45 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Oregon State at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. Washington State is off to a perfect 2-0 start to the season but it was certainly tested last week, as it needed to rally from a three-touchdown fourth quarter deficit to ultimately prevail in triple overtime. We were burned by the marathon nature of that contest as we backed the ‘under’ in that one. Here, I’ll get behind the Cougars, who should put it all together against a very beatable opponent in Oregon State. The Beavers are off to a 1-2 start with their lone victory coming against a still-winless Portland State squad. Not surprisingly, the Beavers have been shredded defensively, giving up a whopping 138 points through just three games. While I do expect them to turn in a better showing in that department this week, I’m not sure they can stay within arm’s length of the Cougars for four quarters with an offense that has sputtered against the better teams it has faced. Meanwhile, Cougars QB Luke Falk will play with a chip on his shoulder after getting benched in the third quarter last week. He’s torched the Beavers throughout his college career. Take Washington State (10*). |
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09-16-17 | Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 65.5 | 23-52 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Oregon State and Washington State at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. It usually takes two to topple a total this high, and I’m not sure we see both offenses turn in stellar performances on Saturday afternoon in Pullman. Oregon State has already allowed 138 points through three games this season so its focus will undoubtedly be on responding on that side of the football this week. Offensively, the Beavers remain a work in progress and I wouldn’t count on much progress against a solid Cougars defense this Saturday. Washington State gave up 44 points in last week’s thrilling triple-overtime win over Boise State. Keep in mind, the Cougars actually held Boise State to just 17 points through three quarters in that game. The Broncos were buoyed by a fumble return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. While Washington State is missing some defensive talent from last year’s squad, it still has the pieces in place to perform well this season, and this is a bit of a statement game to move to 3-0. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-17 | North Carolina v. Old Dominion UNDER 55 | 53-23 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between North Carolina and Old Dominion at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We cashed tickets in games involving both of these teams last week, successfully fading the Tar Heels against Louisville while backing the Monarchs in their ugly win over UMass. Here, I won’t hesitate to switch gears and set sights on the total, which I feel has been set a shade too high. North Carolina has lost a lot of talent from last year’s offense. However, the Tar Heels haven’t seemed to miss a beat, scoring 65 points, albeit in back-to-back losses to Cal and Louisville – both at home. Now as UNC hits the road for the first time, I’m not sure we’ll see them be quite as productive offensively against an Old Dominion defense that is better than advertised. The Monarchs have become known for their offensive prowess in recent years, however, they’ve also dealt with some turnover on that side of the football, and so far this season it has been their defense that has shone. They’ll certainly take this matchup as a challenge, and a good measuring stick here only three games into the season. I’m anticipating a hard-fought affair that sneaks ‘under’ the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-17 | UMass +14.5 v. Temple | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 46 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on UMass plus the points over Temple at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the points with the Minutemen as they head to Philadelphia to face Temple on Friday night. We actually cashed a big ticket fading UMass in last week's 17-7 home loss to Old Dominion. The Minutemen weren't particularly sharp on either side of the football in that contest but I expect them to be better here. This is a team that is capable of putting points on the board in a hurry, even if they didn't show it last week. Against a rebuilding Temple defense, I look for them to bounce back with a strong performance. On the flip side, the Minutemen remain a work in progress defensively. With that being said, I'm confident they can do just enough to keep the Owls within arm's reach for 60 minutes. Note that the last meeting between these two teams back in 2015 was decided by only two points. UMass desperately needs a positive showing off an 0-3 start. I believe this one plays out accordingly. Take UMass (10*). |
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09-15-17 | UMass v. Temple OVER 52 | Top | 21-29 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UMass and Temple at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' at the Linc on Friday night. We cashed a ticket fading UMass last week, and also cashed with the 'over' in the Minutemen's season opener against Hawaii. In other words, I think we have a pretty good handle on where this team is at right now. I certainly feel that UMass is a better offensive team than it showed in last week's ugly 17-7 home loss to Old Dominion. Note that the Minutemen had scored 63 points in their first two games. With TE Adam Breneman and WR Andy Isabella, not to mention RB Marquis Young, who scored four touchdowns in the first two games, UMass has a solid nucleus on offense. It's just a matter of them finishing drives. I believe they'll be able to do that against a Temple defense that lost a lot of talent from last year's team. The Owls have been held to 16 points in each of their first two games going 1-1. They ran into a tough FCS opponent in Villanova last week but will take a step down in class against the Minutemen. Keep in mind, this is a UMass team that gave up 38 points against both Hawaii and Coastal Carolina. Last week's opponent, ODU was missing its top offensive player in RB Ray Lawry. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals UNDER 38 | 13-9 | Win | 100 | 48 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Cincinnati at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in last week's Thursday nighter but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' this Thursday as two reeling squads in the Texans and Bengals do battle in Cincinnati. Both of these teams were flat out embarrassed in their respective home openers last week. Things won't get any easier for the Texans as they turn to rookie QB DeShaun Watson on Thursday night. Don't count on them opening the playbook wide for Watson in his first career NFL start, on a short week no less. Watson threw and interception and also lost a fumble against the Jaguars last Sunday. After giving the offense a spark on his first drive after taking over under center, he wasn't able to get much done the rest of the way. The Bengals were the only team to get shut out in their season opener. Without their full compliment on defense this week they could be in trouble against a lot of teams, but I don't believe that will be the case against the Texans. Offensively, the Bengals have nowhere to go but up. But how much progress will they make playing on a short week? That remains to be seen. This is a low total for an NFL regular season game - there's no question about that. However, I do believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals -6.5 | 13-9 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Houston at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. We're being asked to lay a pretty steep number given the Bengals didn't score a single point in their home opener against the Ravens last Sunday. However, desperation should play a role this week and I believe the Bengals draw a favorable matchup against the Texans at home. Cincinnati can obviously ill afford to start the season 0-2 at home. The Bengals were caught flat-footed against Baltimore last Sunday but I expect to see considerable improvement here. The Texans are a bit of a mess right now. They were already an afterthought in the AFC South race and last week's performance didn't do anything to change minds. DeShaun Watson will take over under center and make his first career NFL start on Thursday night. I'm not sure we'll see the Texans open up the playbook for the rookie, especially after he struggled to complete passes and committed two turnovers last Sunday afternoon. The SU winner has gone 33-2-1 ATS in all Texans games since the start of the 2015 season. I expect the Bengals to find the win column here, and I'll lay the points as well. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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09-11-17 | Chargers +3 v. Broncos | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 27 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Denver at 10:20 pm et on Monday. It's been a while since the Chargers have tasted success here in Denver - 2013 to be exact - but I believe they have a good shot at "upsetting" the Broncos here. L.A. didn't show much in the preseason. It got caught completely flat-footed in back-to-back home games to open the preseason before turning in a strong showing in its Week 3 'dress rehearsal'. I simply feel that the Chargers have a little more upside than the Broncos as we kick off the 2017 campaign. The Broncos will turn to Trevor Siemian under center again this season after he took the reins and performed reasonably well in the starting role a year ago. But can this offense take a step forward? I'm not so sure. As much as I like the Broncos defense, it is worth noting they'll be missing LB Shane Ray and DE Jared Crick. I don't believe we'll see the Chargers contend for the AFC West title when it's all said and done, but I am confident they can get the Anthony Lynn era off to a promising start on Monday night in Denver. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-11-17 | Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 43 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 10:20 pm et on Monday. I certainly expect the defenses to be slightly ahead of the offenses as the Chargers and Broncos renew their rivalry in Denver on Monday night. The Chargers have reason to be excited with an emerging defense led by pass rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. While this is a team that is still known for its offense with QB Philip Rivers at the helm, the fact is, it's the defense that will tell the story in Los Angeles this season. Meanwhile, the Broncos are what they are. Despite the presence of the dynamic WR duo of Thomas and Sanders, this is an offense that has its issues. QB Trevor Siemian isn't likely to light anyone up, certainly not a Chargers defense that is familiar with him after last year. Defensively is where the Broncos should continue to shine. Again, familiarity helps Denver's cause against a division rival to open the new season. That familiarity lends itself to a relatively low-scoring game here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-11-17 | Saints v. Vikings -3 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
NFL MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I had this line pegged considerably higher than what we're looking at and won't hesitate to back the Vikings in their home opener. Minnesota didn't show much in the preseason, save for late in its primetime showcase against the 49ers in Week 3. However, I saw enough to know that they're capable of taking a step forward after an up and down 2016 campaign. Of course, the Vikes did a lot of good things last season. Most notably, QB Sam Bradford completed more than 71% of his passes while throwing 20 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Now with the addition of rookie RB Dalvin Cook, the offense has the potential to be better. Defensively, this is the year the Vikes young core should really step up. All most saw in the preseason was them getting lit up by a pedestrian 49ers offense, but that was the preseason. The Minnesota 'D' will come to play in the face of a tough challenge against the Saints on Monday night. New Orleans enters this campaign on the heels of a few tough seasons. I'm not sure the Saints have all the pieces in place to turn things around this year. RB Adrian Peterson returning to Minnesota will grab a lot of headlines, but I don't expect him to take over this game by any means. The Saints offense will be good, but I'm not convinced they can stick around for four quarters against a quality defense. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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09-10-17 | Falcons -6 v. Bears | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons didn’t show much in the preseason but that’s of little consequence. This is a highly-motivated, and more importantly – supremely talented squad that should have little trouble brushing aside the Bears in front of a weary fan base at Soldier Field. Chicago has finally moved on from the Jay Cutler era but is Mike Glennon really a much better option? It’s only a matter of time before Mitchell Trubisky takes over the reins and a poor performance from Glennon here would certainly speed up that process. Outside of RB Jordan Howard I simply don’t see many bright spots for the Bears, and I’m confident they’ll be one of the league’s weakest teams this season. We’re being asked to lay a considerable number of points with a road team given it is Week 1 after all, but I have a tough time envisioning a story unfolding where Chicago keeps pace with Atlanta for four quarters. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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09-10-17 | Steelers v. Browns OVER 46.5 | 21-18 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Pittsburgh and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in the ‘Dawg Pound’ on Sunday afternoon. For the first time in a long time, there’s some excitement surrounding the Browns in Cleveland. I do believe we’ll see the Browns offense take major stides forward with rookie QB DeShone Kizer this season. That’s not to say that we’ll see them run wild against a capable Steelers defense, but don’t count on Pittsburgh manhandling the Browns the way it has in years past. On the flip side, the Browns defense suffered a major blow losing first overall pick Myles Garrett to injury. That takes away a lot of the positive momentum this unit had been building through August. Cleveland will certainly have its hands full with an absolutely loaded Steelers offense that welcomes back WR Martavis Bryant to an already explosive group. I would have liked to have gotten this total a little lower, but it’s still playable at the current number. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-17 | Cardinals v. Lions +2.5 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’m not as high on the Cardinals as some. It seems like Arizona is a perennial Super Bowl sleeper pick but this is a team that has had a tough time living up to expectations in recent years. Things won’t get any easier this year with an aging, oft-injured Carson Palmer under center. Yes, David Johnson is an absolute force out of the backfield but outside of his presence, does anyone else on this offense really scare the opposition? The Lions gave QB Matt Stafford a lot more money than expected and perhaps deserved. That should at the very least give him a shot of confidence, and I like the receiving corps he’ll be working with, even if that group isn’t loaded with star power. Watch for Kenny Golladay to take on a prominent role in the offense before too long, perhaps passing Marvin Jones on the depth chart eventually. Defensively, the Lions are better than most give them credit for. As I mentioned, the Cards aren’t going to intimidate them. I simply feel that the wrong team is favored in this NFC showdown. Take Detroit (10*). |
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09-10-17 | Raiders +3 v. Titans | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland plus the points over Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. I had this game as a pk’em but the oddsmakers have elected to install the Titans as a small favorite. While I can understand the logic behind the line, that doesn’t mean I agree with it. A lot of folks have the Titans pegged as a playoff team in 2017. I’m not so easily convinced. A lot went right for Tennessee a year ago as RB DeMarco Murray performed better than expected and an ‘under the radar’ receiving corps came up big for QB Marcus Mariota. However, the Titans will have a bigger target on their backs this season, and it starts with this showdown with the Raiders – who carry plenty of hype and expectations of their own. Barring injuries, I do believe Oakland will make some serious noise in the AFC West this season. We saw the Chiefs come roaring out of the gates in Foxborough on Thursday but the Raiders are capable of looking just as impressive here. Take Oakland (10*). |
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09-09-17 | Boise State v. Washington State UNDER 58 | Top | 44-47 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Washington State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. Boise State has reeled off three consecutive 'under' results going back to last season while the Cougars have posted an 0-2-1 o/u mark over their last three contests dating back to 2016. Washington State is still thought of as an offensive powerhouse rather than a defensive stalwart but the fact is, the Cougars can bring it on the defensive side of the football, particularly here at home. They opened the 2017 campaign with a shutout performance against Montana State. They'll obviously be facing a much tougher challenge here but after barely breaking a sweat last week, I believe they'll be up to the task. Boise State had its way with Troy in its season opener, prevailing by a 24-13 score. Note that the Broncos managed only 12 points in a blowout loss in their Bowl game against Baylor last year. We've seen the Broncos have a tough time keeping it rolling offensively when stepping up in class in recent years and I believe that will prove to be the case here as well. Boise State may not be an elite defensive squad but it is serviceable to be sure. Note that it hasn't allowed more than 31 points in a game since November 2015. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-17 | Utah v. BYU UNDER 46.5 | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 50 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and BYU at 10:15 pm et on Saturday. Only one of the last four meetings in this series has totaled north of 45 points and that came in a rare Bowl matchup two years ago. These early September showdowns have been more or less owned by the defenses, and I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair here. Utah thrived offensively in Pac-12 play last season and its season culminated with a 26-24 Bowl win over Indiana. But the Utes are ushering in some new faces on offense, with sophomore Tyler Huntley taking over under center after throwing just seven passes last season. They'll be up against a formidable BYU defense that saw its play overshadowed by a no-show from the offense against LSU last week (we won with the 'under' in that game). I'm not sure we'll see the Cougars offense accomplish much more in this one. QB Tanner Mangum is certainly no Taysom Hill, as we've seen through two games in which BYU has scored a grand total of 20 points. Mangum is capable of playing better, as we saw during the 2015-16 season, but doesn't have a wealth of talent around him. I expect the Utes defense to hold its own against the Cougars here. Familiarity lends itself to a low-scoring game. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-17 | Pittsburgh v. Penn State OVER 64 | 14-33 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Pittsburgh and Penn State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Penn State looked the part of a national title contender last week, albeit against a weak opponent in Akron. The Nittany Lions scored at will, jumping ahead 35-0 before halftime and the defense took care of the rest. They were able to take their foot off the gas in the second half of that game, but still moved the football with ease. I don’t expect them to face much resistance from the Pitt defense this week, but I also don’t believe this will be a cakewalk. Pitt didn’t put its best foot forward last week, but still managed to come away with an overtime win over a good FCS squad in Youngstown State. The Panthers never really got rolling offensively in that game, but now that QB Max Browne has a game under his belt running the offense, I expect him to be better. While there has been plenty of turnover from last year’s veteran squad, Browne still has plenty of talent to work with at wide receiver. Pitt is accustomed to getting involved in shootouts after a wild 2016 campaign and while the Panthers won’t be able to stay within arm’s length of the Nittany Lions here, I do believe they can make things somewhat interesting, which lends itself to a play on the ‘over’. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-17 | Old Dominion -3.5 v. UMass | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Old Dominion minus the points over Massachusetts at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll lay the points with what remains an undervalued Monarchs squad on Saturday afternoon. Few paid much attention to Old Dominion last year but all the Monarchs did was earn a share of the C-USA East Division title, winning 10 games, including a Bahamas Bowl victory over Eastern Michigan. While they have had to deal with some turnover entering this campaign, they’re off to a 1-0 start after defeating Albany last Saturday. They put up 31 points in that game despite getting only 44 yards and a score on five carries from star RB Ray Lawry. He was forced to leave the game after tweaking his hamstring on a long touchdown run in the first quarter but should be good to go for this one. Even if he’s not 100% healthy, the Monarchs are capable of putting up big numbers against a below average UMass defense. The Minutemen are off to a disappointing 0-2 start after suffering a 38-28 loss at Coastal Carolina last week. Losing that game despite QB Andrew Ford throwing for over 300 yards was demoralizing to be sure. There are few opponents that the Minutemen will be able to hold up against defensively, and I don’t believe the Monarchs are one of them. We’ll back ODU before the betting marketplace catches up. Take Old Dominion (10*). |
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09-09-17 | Louisville -9.5 v. North Carolina | 47-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisville minus the points over North Carolina at 12 noon et on Saturday. The Cardinals may be a top-25 team but they didn’t necessarily look like it for much of last week’s narrow come-from-behind 35-28 win over Purdue. Now that Louisville got that uneven performance out of its system I look for it to push forward with a much better effort against North Carolina on Saturday. Much of the Cardinals struggles last week came in the first half, when they managed only a touchdown and a field goal. The second half was much more promising as they put 25 points on the board, scoring on offense and defense. Lamar Jackson was Lamar Jackson and he should thrive against a good but not great Tar Heels defense this week. But it’s the Cardinals defense that I’m really counting on to control proceedings against a UNC offense that is dealing with a lot of changes, most notably under center. This is a big game for UNC off the disappointing loss to Cal last week but I’m not convinced it will be able to pick itself up off the mat against an elite opponent. Take Louisville (10*). |
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09-08-17 | Oklahoma State v. South Alabama UNDER 66.5 | 44-7 | Win | 100 | 72 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and South Alabama at 8 pm et on Friday. The Cowboys appeared to be in midseason form in last week's 59-24 season opening rout of Tulsa. I'm not sure their offense will enjoy the same success as they hit the road this week, however, noting that they put up a whopping 38 points in the first half of last week's game. I expect South Alabama to take advantage of a rare primetime showcase against a big conference opponent and at least offer some resistance with a defense that boasts some experience and talent. After getting railroaded by Ole Miss last week, the Jaguars should respond favorably here. In order to get a total in this point range, it generally takes two offenses to produce at a high level. I'm just not sure the Jaguars will be able to get anything going against a physical Cowboys defense that is used to playing against elite offensive talent. After allowing 17 points in the second quarter last week against Tulsa, I expect Oklahoma State to keep its guard up here and not suffer much of a letdown defensively. That helps keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and New England at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Foxborough on Thursday night. Kansas City didn't show much in the preseason, yet still managed to score 30 points in two of its four games. First round draft pick Pat Mahomes saw the bulk of the action under center, but Alex Smith is still the starter, and I believe he has enough weapons at his disposal to remain the starter for the entire campaign - even if most believe otherwise. The Patriots have an excellent defense but I'm not sure they'll have an answer for Travis Kelce or the WR/RB duo of Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt. Keep in mind, the Chiefs scored at least 24 points on nine different occasions last season. On the flip side, the Chiefs also have an elite defense. But when have the Patriots ever backed down from a challenge. The Pats may have lost Julian Edelman for the season but their 'next man up' philosophy has always served them well. They're still loaded on offense with the addition of Brandin Cooks and the potential emergence of Chris Hogan. We're dealing with a fairly high total here but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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09-04-17 | Tennessee v. Georgia Tech OVER 55 | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Georgia Tech at 8 pm et on Monday. While both of these teams will be ushering in new starting quarterbacks to open the 2017 campaign I'm not expecting either offense to miss a beat. Note that the Vols posted a 9-4 o/u mark last season. Dual-threat QB Josh Dobbs has moved on to the NFL but in what should be a run-heavy offensive attack, I'm not all that concerned with a new face under center. The same goes for the Yellow Jackets as they rely heavily on their run game in an option-based attack. A key here is the strength of both offensive lines, helping ease any growing pains under center. On the fast track in Atlanta, I'm looking for both teams to score points in bunches. We're dealing with a high posted total for a reason here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-03-17 | Texas A&M v. UCLA -3 | 44-45 | Loss | -120 | 71 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Texas A&M at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. The Bruins season got derailed by an injury to QB Josh Rosen a year ago but he's back healthy to open the 2017 campaign, and I look for UCLA to come out and make a statement on Sunday. Meanwhile, Texas A&M hasn't covered a spread since last September - September 24th against Arkansas to be exact. This is by no means an easy spot for the Aggies to snap that ATS skid. Keep in mind, A&M defeated UCLA by a 31-24 score in overtime in last year's season opener. The Aggies were certainly fortunate to cover the five-point spread in that contest. But that was was played at College Station. Different venue, different story. Take UCLA (10*). |
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09-02-17 | BYU v. LSU UNDER 47 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 50 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and LSU at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. College football games in domed stadiums always seem to draw in plenty of 'over' bettors. On the 'fast track' the common line of thinking is that the offenses will ultimately take over. I'm not sure that will be the case in this matchup between two excellent defensive squads, however. No Taysom Hill. No Jamaal Williams. Of course, that's not the entire story for BYU heading into this season, but it's a strong narrative for sure. Last week we saw the Cougars defeat FCS squad Portland State by a 20-6 score. QB Tanner Mangum completed only 16-of-27 passes for 194 yards and a touchdown. Note that BYU was held scoreless for the entire third quarter in that game and managed only a pair of field goals in the second half. Things certainly won't get any easier against LSU. On the flip side, I do expect BYU to hold its own defensively against the Tigers. LSU had a few offensive explosions last season, but more commonly we saw it struggle to string together fruitful offensive drives, particularly in the early stages of the season. I don't believe we'll see the Tigers come out firing on all cylinders here. Yes, the Cougars will be stepping up in class, but they've proved before they can hang with the big boys. Take the under (10*). |
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09-02-17 | Georgia Southern +34.5 v. Auburn | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 70 h 20 m | Show |
CFB Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Georgia Southern plus the points over Auburn at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Auburn has high hopes entering the 2017 season. The Tigers are nationally-ranked for a reason. But I'm not sure they'll be able to sniff out an ATS cover on Saturday as they lay a boatload of points against an upstart Georgia Southern squad. The Eagles are coming off a pretty bad season all things considered. After starting 3-0 they didn't win consecutive games the rest of the way, winning only twice from September 24th on. Keep in mind, this is a team that not only reached a Bowl game two years ago, but won it in convincing fashion. I'm confident we'll see a return to form from Georgia Southern this year. They don't strike me as a squad that's intimidated by the challenge of heading on the road against a name opponent. Note that the Eagles went away and lost by 11 at Georgia Tech and 10 at Mississippi last season. Obviously they face a tougher opponent here, but I'm comfortable backing them catching nearly five touchdowns. Auburn will look explosive at times but Georgia Southern will score enough to stay inside the lofty number. Take Georgia Southern (10*). |
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09-01-17 | Colorado State v. Colorado UNDER 66 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and Colorado at 8 pm et on Friday. We've seen the 'under' cash in eight of the last nine meetings in this rivalry and I look for that trend to continue on Friday night. Colorado State was involved in a wild 58-27 victory over Oregon State last week but don't count on it facing such little resistance against the rival Buffaloes here. Yes, Colorado loses the bulk of its talent from last year's defense but this is a well-coached squad that has enjoyed success recently, and I'm confident it still rises to the occasion defensively, even against a Colorado State squad that already has a game under its belt. Colorado has been an 'under' squad over the last couple of years, posting a 9-18 o/u mark. Note that in the Rams 58-point outburst last week, they were handed five turnovers by the Oregon State offense. I'm confident we'll see the Buffs' take a more careful approach with the football. This could turn out to be a shootout but given how high the posted total is, I'm not sure it will be enough. Take the under (10*). |
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08-31-17 | Ohio State v. Indiana UNDER 58 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 51 m | Show |
CFB TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Indiana at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in this Big Ten showdown on Thursday night. Indiana has had a nightmarish time trying to slow down the Buckeyes over the years but I believe the time is right for the Hoosiers to at least keep things interesting in the 2017 season opener, and it all starts with keeping the Ohio State offense at bay. Last year's Hoosiers squad was a little different. They didn't get involved in as many wild shootouts and that served them well as they reached a Bowl game and nearly took down a good Utah squad, ultimately falling by a 26-24 score. Indiana returns nine starters on defense this year and I believe it is well-positioned to at least get a few more stops than it did in last year's 38-17 drubbing at the hands of the Buckeyes. Of course, Ohio State is one of the strongest teams not only in the Big Ten, but in the nation. It should only be a matter of time before the Buckeyes impose their will on the Hoosiers, especially on the defensive side of the football. We did see Ohio State's offense stagnate at times last year and I believe we see a similar story unfold as the season begins on Thursday. Last year's matchup totaled 55 points - the second straight 'under' result in this series. We're dealing with a slightly lower total as a result, but I believe the move is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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08-26-17 | Hawaii v. UMass OVER 62 | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 69 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and UMass at 6 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks between the Rainbow Warriors and Minutemen in Saturday's season opener. That's not a real stretch as these two teams combined to score 86 points in last year's meeting in Hawaii - a game the Warriors won by a 46-40 score. Both teams return plenty of talent on offense. While both also return pieces from last year's defenses, I'm not so sure that's a good thing. Yes, Hawaii managed to win a Bowl game last year, but still gave up 35 points against Middle Tennessee in the process. UMass couldn't stop anyone, allowing 52, 51 and 46 points over its final three contests. To put it simply, this has the makings of a shootout and we're dealing with a reasonable total as far as I'm concerned. Take the over (10*). |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons +3 | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 53 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New England at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. When in doubt, grab the points, and in this case, I feel the game could go either way but the value is with the Falcons in an underdog role. New England didn't exactly face a murderer's row in terms of opposition this season, and that has continued in the playoffs as it drew a favorable matchup against the Texans before the Steelers were essentially a no-show in the AFC Championship Game. Meanwhile, the Falcons have been going full throttle all season, facing a difficult schedule along the way, and that continued in the postseason as they went up against the Seahawks and Packers - two legitimate Super Bowl contenders. I don't believe the Falcons defense gets nearly enough credit for how well it has played this season. Yes, they've given up their share of points, but that's largely due to playing ahead so much, and forcing opponents into taking chances in catch-up mode. They've been involved in plenty of shootouts but more often than not, their defense has come up with big plays when it has needed to. This should be an entertaining contest from start to finish. I'm comfortable putting my money on a Falcons squad that hasn't been here before. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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01-22-17 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | 17-36 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over New England at 6:40 pm et on Sunday. To put it simply, I'm not overly impressed by the Patriots. This New England squad doesn't carry quite the same intimidation factor it did in recent years - at least not in my opinion. The Steelers certainly won't be intimidated. This is a team that has regained its swagger over the course of the season, particularly on the defensive side of the football. We knew all along the Steelers could score, but last week we saw that they're more than capable of winning a slugfest as well. I do expect to see their offense return to form this week. Few teams have been able to slow down Le'Veon Bell out of the backfield and the Pats should be no exception. The Patriots are coming off a shaky performance against the Texans last week. It was as sloppy as we've seen New England in quite some time. Expect a sharper performance here, but I'm happy to grab all the points I can get with a Steelers squad that should stay within arm's reach for four quarters. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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01-22-17 | Packers +5 v. Falcons | Top | 21-44 | Loss | -109 | 76 h 49 m | Show |
NFL Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Atlanta at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. To put it simply, I don’t see the Atlanta Falcons reaching the Super Bowl. While they’re not exactly giving off a ‘happy to be here’ vibe leading up to the NFC Championship, I can’t help but feel they’re pleased as punch to not only be in the game, but hosting it no less. Meanwhile, the Packers have ‘been there, done that’, so to speak, and still have a sour taste in their mouth from that epic collapse in the NFC Championship Game in Seattle two years ago. Green Bay’s defense is vulnerable – that’s not up for debate. And the Falcons are certainly capable of taking advantage, as we saw last week when they shredded an undermanned but still formidable Seahawks defense. On the flip side, however, Aaron Rodgers is playing some of the best football of his career (that’s saying something) and getting support from all over the field, even in the absence of Jordy Nelson. The same can be said for Matt Ryan, but could he flinch given the high stakes of this game? It’s the biggest game of his career to date without question. In what should be a high-scoring affair, and in a game where the team that can come up with the most clutch plays in the fourth quarter likely wins, my money is on the one that has thrived on this stage before. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs OVER 44.5 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Pittsburgh and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Kansas City on Sunday night. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Steelers blowout win over the Dolphins last Sunday. That was a tough roll of the dice as there were plenty of opportunities to send that one ‘over’ the number but turnovers essentially did us in. I expect a different story to unfold this week as the Steelers travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs. This total has been dropping and it likely has a lot to do with the weather forecast, which is calling for cold temperatures and some precipitation. I’m not all that concerned about that. I think the key here is that the Chiefs offense is being underrated by the betting marketplace – at least in my opinion. The emergence of the versatile Tyreek Hill down the stretch made a big difference for this group and with Jeremy Maclin back to full strength as well, this is suddenly a team that doesn’t have to rely on its defense and ground game to grind out victories. The Steelers defense looked good against the Dolphins last week but let’s not get carried away as they were facing the likes of Matt Moore at quarterback. I do expect Pittsburgh to stick around in this game thanks to its own explosive offense, even if Big Ben isn’t 100% healthy. This is the first time Pittsburgh has had both Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell healthy for the playoffs, and their presence was certainly felt last week, and should be again here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-14-17 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 44.5 | 16-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Houston and New England at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Foxborough on Saturday night. This play essentially comes down to the fact that I don’t believe the Texans are capable of producing much offense at all in this matchup. We did cash a ticket with the ‘over’ in their rout of the banged-up Raiders last week, and it had everything to do with a big first half from the Houston offense. But there’s no question it was the play of the defense that really set up the offense early on. While the big lead had something to do with it, the fact is, QB Brock Osweiler and the offense did very little in the second half. I like the Texans defense, but I don’t like their offense at all, plain and simple. The Patriots are known for their offense of course, and while I do expect them to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard on Saturday night, I’m not sure it will be enough to topple this total. There’s no reason for New England to go over the top in terms of running up the score, not here in the Divisional Round. The Texans defense will at least offer some resistance and I don’t see Bill Bellichick showing up Bill O’Brien – no different than we saw in the regular season meeting between these two teams – a game that could have been even more lopsided than it was – even without Tom Brady at the Pats’ disposal (note that we cashed a ticket on the ‘under’ in that game). Take the under (10*). |
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01-14-17 | Seahawks v. Falcons OVER 51.5 | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Atlanta at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Seahawks Wild Card victory over Detroit last week. The Seahawks offense showed up in that one but the Lions’ did not – it really was as simple as that. There was nothing particularly special about the Seattle defense on that night – the Lions simply didn’t pose any sort of challenge, with QB Matt Stafford struggling through a hand injury. This time around, the Seahawks will face a much more formidable challenge against one of the best offensive teams in the league. I don’t expect the Falcons to show any rust despite the week off. This is a team that has produced offensively all season long with few exceptions. While the defense has held its own for stretches, I do believe that unit will be tested by a Seahawks offense that is more than capable of scoring points in bunches. Yes, Seattle’s offense has been inconsistent, but that’s had a lot to do with QB Russell Wilson playing at less than 100% healthy. He’s arguably as healthy as he’s been all season right now, and we saw glimpses of what the ‘Hawks are capable of last week. Take the over (10*). |
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01-09-17 | Clemson v. Alabama -6 | 35-31 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Alabama minus the points over Clemson at 8 pm et on Monday. We won with Clemson in this matchup last year but I won't hesitate to switch gears and lay the points with the Crimson Tide this time around. Alabama may not boast as many household names as we've seen from Nick Saban's squad in recent years, but this team is every bit as good, if not better. While the Tigers have all the motivation on their side as they look for revenge and finally get over the hump to grab that national title, I'm not sure that will be enough. Alabama has gone an impressive 10-4 ATS this season - made even more impressive by the fact that the Tide are firmly planted on virtually every bettor's radar. Meanwhile, Clemson checks in a modest 7-7 ATS, an overvalued commodity. The betting majority is quick to back the Tigers here thanks to the lofty pointspread. I'll go the other way. Take Alabama (10*). |
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01-08-17 | Giants v. Packers UNDER 45 | 13-38 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Green Bay at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon. I simply believe that this total will prove too high. The oddsmakers have made a pretty big adjustment to the total after we saw a closing number of 49 points in the lone regular season meeting between the Giants and Packers - a game that totaled just 39 points here in Green Bay back in October. The Giants defense shifted into another gear down the stretch and I expect that strong play to continue in this one, even with Aaron Rodgers playing some of his best football for the Packers. On the other side, this play is more about the Giants offense, and the inconsistency of that unit rather than the effectiveness of the Packers defense. There's reason to believe the Pack can contain the Giants offense, just as they did in that regular season matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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01-08-17 | Giants +6 v. Packers | 13-38 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Green Bay at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. The Giants are certainly a popular upset pick on Wild Card Weekend but that doesn't mean they're the wrong one. While I'm not going to call for the outright victory here, I do believe this has the makings of a classic, with the G-Men capable of taking the Packers down to the wire. The New York defense really doesn't get enough credit. This is a unit that has gone through plenty of changes in recent years, but keeps on ticking, with improvement in a number of areas this season, largely due to an influx of young talent. The Packers have gotten tremendous play from Aaron Rodgers, particularly of late, but I don't think he'll have an easy time of it on Sunday afternoon. Look for the Giants offense to make just enough plays down the stretch to keep this one inside the number. Take New York (10*). |
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers OVER 45.5 | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Cold temperatures are in the forecast and that combined with the fact that the Dolphins are turning to backup QB Matt Moore is helping to keep this total in check. I believe it could be higher. Note that these two teams produced just 45 points in their regular season meeting in Florida. That one featured a closing total of 49.5 points. So the oddsmakers have made an adjustment here, I'm just not sure that it's warranted. The Dolphins ended the regular season with a thud, dropping a blowout decision against the Patriots. I do expect them to respond favorably on the offensive side of the football here, even with Moore at the helm. The Steelers don't tackle particularly well, and that opens the door for a Fins attack that does feature plenty of playmakers. On the flip side, I don't see the Fins defense slowing the Steelers three-headed monster on offense. For the first time, Pittsburgh has Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger all on the field for a playoff game. I don't believe they can be contained in this setting. The last meeting between these two teams here in Pittsburgh came back in 2013 and it totaled 62 points. Take the over (10*). |
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01-07-17 | Lions v. Seahawks OVER 43 | 6-26 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. This isn't the same Seahawks defense we're accustomed to seeing at this time of year. Sure, there were glimpses of the unit that has terrorized the league in recent years, but those glimpses were brief. While the Lions offense isn't likely to pose big problems for the Seahawks defense, it will do enough to help this total along. It's not as if the Lions haven't had a taste of playoff football. I expect a poised performance from Matt Stafford, aided by the veteran presence of guys like Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin. On the flip side, the Seahawks offense was explosive at times during the regular season, but also inconsistent. Russell Wilson and company did close things out on a positive note, scoring 53 points over their last six quarters of football. I like the matchup here against the Lions defense. We saw the Detroit 'D' wilt in the final two regular season games, perhaps worn down at the end of a long campaign in which it was asked to do an awful lot to keep games close and open the door for fourth quarter comebacks. Take the over (10*). |
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01-07-17 | Raiders v. Texans OVER 36.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 44 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Houston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a major adjustment in the total here, at least compared to the regular season meeting between these two teams in Oakland. That game saw a closing total up around 45 points. Here we're looking at a number more than a touchdown lower. I'm not sure such a big move is warranted. Yes, the Raiders will be without QB Derek Carr. No, that doesn't mean they have no shot at winning this game, or putting points on the board. I think it's worth noting that we saw a similar scenario play out a couple of years ago when the Cardinals visited the Panthers in the playoffs, and were forced to turn to Ryan Lindley under center. Lindley was terrible in that game, but we still saw 43 total points in a 27-16 Panthers victory. Here, I believe both defenses are getting a little too much credit to be honest. The Raiders didn't record a single sack when the chips were down over the last two games of the regular season. Meanwhile, the Texans pass defense led the way all season long, but overachieved as far as I'm concerned. This is a game where the absence of J.J. Watt will be felt. Take the over (10*). |
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01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State UNDER 60 | 52-49 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between USC and Penn State at 5 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in the Rose Bowl. Simply put, I believe this total is inflated based on Penn State's high-scoring results during the regular season, combined with the way USC closed out the regular campaign. USC put up big numbers offensively this season, but that was at the expense of a relatively weak Pac-12 field as far as I'm concerned. Meanwhile, Penn State surprisingly lit up the scoreboard on a weekly basis, but I can't help but think back to the Nittany Lions narrow 24-21 win over Ohio State earlier in the campaign. I expect this one to play out similarly. Both teams are known for their offense, but the two defenses also came up big time and time again over the course of the season. We're dealing with a lofty total here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-01-17 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 49.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I believe this total will prove too high, despite the first meeting this season totaling 61 points. Obviously everything is on the line here, with the NFC North title hanging in the balance. The Packers lit up the scoreboard last Sunday, but that was against a Vikings squad that has already checked out on the season. Here, they'll face a much tougher challenge. Detroit was torched for 42 points on Monday night in Dallas but is a far better defensive team than it showed in that one. Keep in mind, the 'under' had cashed in the Lions previous eight games. Take the under (10*). |
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01-01-17 | Jaguars v. Colts -4 | 20-24 | Push | 0 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Colts on Sunday as they host the Jaguars, who are coming off a rare win - a blowout win, in fact, over the Titans last week. The Colts fell short in Oakland last week but did put forth a solid effort. They ultimately split their last two games on the road and check in with a respectable 7-7-1 ATS mark this season. Jacksonville has delivered the cash in back-to-back games but let's face it, the Jags are nearing the end of another disastrous season. I don't see them ending it on a high note here. The home team has won four straight meetings in this series. That trend continues here. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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01-01-17 | Cowboys v. Eagles -4.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's little reason for the Cowboys to get up for this one. Yes, they'll be looking for a franchise-record in terms of wins in a season, but that means little in the grand scheme of things. We're going to see Dallas backups on the field most of the game, with Tony Romo seeing action among others. Meanwhile, the Eagles haven't quit on the season, and are coming off a big revenge win over the Giants last week. They've had extra rest having not played since a week ago Thursday, also playing into their favor with the Cowboys having just played on Monday night. We're being asked to lay a reasonable number with a suitably motivated team here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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12-31-16 | Ohio State v. Clemson UNDER 59 | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Clemson at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in this college football playoff semi-final matchup. This is the highest total in a game involving Ohio State since early October. I don't believe it's warranted. Of course, Clemson comes into this one riding a four-game 'over' streak. That certainly plays a factor in this lofty total. Both teams are capable of scoring points in bunches but both defenses are also talented and capable of stepping up in this all-or-nothing affair. Note that the Tigers 4-0 'over' run only brings them to 7-6 on the season in terms of an o/u record. The Buckeyes on the other hand have posted a 6-6 o/u mark. As long as the winner stays in the low-30s in this one we should be in good shape to cash our ticket. That's a solid proposition in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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12-31-16 | Washington v. Alabama OVER 52.5 | 7-24 | Loss | -103 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Alabama at 3 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in the first of two college football playoff semi-final matchups on Saturday. Last year, Alabama rolled to a 38-0 shutout victory over Michigan State. I don't expect the Crimson Tide to pitch another shutout this time around, however. The issue for Washington is that it played in a Pac-12 conference that didn't exactly enjoy a banner year, and still gave up its share of points. It will certainly be in tough against an Alabama squad that can score touchdowns on both sides of the football. On the flip side, the Crimson Tide are 'only' favored by two touchdowns. The oddsmakers believe that the Huskies have a puncher's chance of keeping up in this game. One thing is for sure, Washington can't win this game if it turns into a defensive slugfest. I'm expecting plenty of offense. Take the over (10*). |
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12-31-16 | Washington v. Alabama -14 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Alabama minus the points over Washington at 3 pm et on Saturday. I have no problem laying two touchdowns with the Crimson Tide as they take on Washington in the first college football playoff semi-final on Saturday afternoon. We won some money supporting Washington over the course of the season but that doesn't mean I believe they should be in this playoff. The Huskies managed to go just 7-6 ATS this season, playing in a Pac-12 conference that had a down year as far as I'm concerned. On the flip side, despite being firmly planted on virtually every college football bettor's radar, the Crimson Tide still managed to go 9-4 ATS. Alabama hasn't really been challenged since a 10-0 victory at LSU back on November 5th. While the Huskies may give them a run on Saturday, I don't believe they'll be able to stick around for four quarters. Alabama is the team to beat at this stage and I don't think we're being asked to lay an unreasonable number on Saturday. Take Alabama (10*). |
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12-30-16 | North Carolina v. Stanford UNDER 54 | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and North Carolina at 2 pm et on Friday. The big news leading up to this one was the decision by Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey to sit out. Often times, we'll see teams rally around absences in Bowl games but I'm not convinced that's how this one will play out. Stanford does possess a quality defense and as a result of that, the Cardinal posted a 5-7 o/u record over the course of the regular season. Note that North Carolina posted a 4-8 o/u mark. The Tar Heels didn't have the same explosive offense we've seen in years' past, at least not as the season went on. The 'under' cashed in seven of their last eight contests. We're dealing with a reasonably high total here, but that's largely due to Stanford's 3-0 'over' streak heading in. With Christian McCaffrey out, this is a different game - likely a competitive one, but I don't believe it goes 'over' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-29-16 | Arkansas +7 v. Virginia Tech | 24-35 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Virginia Tech at 5:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the points with the Razorbacks in this one. Arkansas started the season with three straight wins but has alternated losses and wins since. Here, the Hogs will look to bounce back from a regular season ending loss at Missouri. I expect to see them do exactly that. Virginia Tech battled hard but ultimately fell by a 42-35 score in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. The Hokies had a number of poor defensive showings over the course of the season, and I believe they'll once again have their hands full here. Arkansas was virtually a two-touchdown favorite in its Bowl game last year, and won by a 45-23 score against Kansas State. Virginia Tech on the other hand failed to cover a two-touchdown spread in a field goal victory over Tulsa. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair here. Take Arkansas (10*). |
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Sean Murphy Football Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-14-17 | Nevada +24.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 42-44 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
10-14-17 | Baylor +26 v. Oklahoma State | 16-59 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
10-14-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Army OVER 47 | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
10-13-17 | Clemson v. Syracuse OVER 56 | 24-27 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | 28-23 | Loss | -125 | 24 h 46 m | Show | |
10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 40 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Ravens +3 v. Raiders | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Michigan State +10.5 v. Michigan | Top | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 30 h 37 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina UNDER 63 | Top | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
10-07-17 | West Virginia v. TCU -13 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
10-06-17 | Memphis v. Connecticut UNDER 72 | 70-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs +6 | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 35 m | Show | |
10-05-17 | Louisville v. NC State UNDER 66.5 | 25-39 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
10-02-17 | Redskins +7 v. Chiefs | 20-29 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
10-01-17 | Giants +3 v. Bucs | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 50 h 11 m | Show | |
10-01-17 | Eagles v. Chargers -1 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 25 m | Show |
10-01-17 | Bills v. Falcons OVER 48.5 | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 13 m | Show | |
09-30-17 | Clemson v. Virginia Tech UNDER 51 | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 2 m | Show | |
09-30-17 | UTEP v. Army -23 | 21-35 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
09-30-17 | Georgia v. Tennessee +8 | Top | 41-0 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
09-29-17 | USC v. Washington State OVER 61.5 | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
09-25-17 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Cardinals | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 42 m | Show | |
09-24-17 | Raiders -3 v. Redskins | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
09-24-17 | Seahawks v. Titans UNDER 41 | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | 27-33 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
09-24-17 | Saints v. Panthers OVER 46 | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
09-24-17 | Broncos -3 v. Bills | 16-26 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
09-24-17 | Saints v. Panthers -5.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
09-23-17 | UTSA -13 v. Texas State | 44-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
09-23-17 | Mississippi State v. Georgia -4 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
09-23-17 | Syracuse v. LSU -21 | 26-35 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
09-23-17 | TCU +14 v. Oklahoma State | 44-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
09-23-17 | Wake Forest v. Appalachian State +6 | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
09-23-17 | Boston College +34.5 v. Clemson | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
09-23-17 | Duke v. North Carolina UNDER 60 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
09-23-17 | Army +3 v. Tulane | 17-21 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 45 m | Show | |
09-22-17 | Utah -3.5 v. Arizona | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
09-21-17 | Rams -2.5 v. 49ers | 41-39 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 39 | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
09-18-17 | Lions +3 v. Giants | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
09-17-17 | Cowboys -2 v. Broncos | 17-42 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 37 m | Show | |
09-17-17 | Cowboys v. Broncos UNDER 42 | 17-42 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 37 m | Show | |
09-17-17 | Jets v. Raiders -13 | Top | 20-45 | Win | 100 | 43 h 18 m | Show |
09-17-17 | Titans v. Jaguars | 37-16 | Win | 100 | 40 h 16 m | Show | |
09-17-17 | Patriots -6 v. Saints | 36-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 14 m | Show | |
09-17-17 | Bears v. Bucs OVER 43 | Top | 7-29 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 13 m | Show |
09-16-17 | Ole Miss v. California OVER 71.5 | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
09-16-17 | Appalachian State -23 v. Texas State | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 19 m | Show |
09-16-17 | Oregon State v. Washington State -21 | 23-52 | Win | 100 | 45 h 1 m | Show | |
09-16-17 | Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 65.5 | 23-52 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 1 m | Show | |
09-16-17 | North Carolina v. Old Dominion UNDER 55 | 53-23 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 52 m | Show | |
09-15-17 | UMass +14.5 v. Temple | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 46 h 46 m | Show | |
09-15-17 | UMass v. Temple OVER 52 | Top | 21-29 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals UNDER 38 | 13-9 | Win | 100 | 48 h 40 m | Show | |
09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals -6.5 | 13-9 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 35 m | Show | |
09-11-17 | Chargers +3 v. Broncos | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 27 h 15 m | Show | |
09-11-17 | Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 43 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
09-11-17 | Saints v. Vikings -3 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
09-10-17 | Falcons -6 v. Bears | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
09-10-17 | Steelers v. Browns OVER 46.5 | 21-18 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
09-10-17 | Cardinals v. Lions +2.5 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
09-10-17 | Raiders +3 v. Titans | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
09-09-17 | Boise State v. Washington State UNDER 58 | Top | 44-47 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
09-09-17 | Utah v. BYU UNDER 46.5 | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 50 h 56 m | Show | |
09-09-17 | Pittsburgh v. Penn State OVER 64 | 14-33 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
09-09-17 | Old Dominion -3.5 v. UMass | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
09-09-17 | Louisville -9.5 v. North Carolina | 47-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
09-08-17 | Oklahoma State v. South Alabama UNDER 66.5 | 44-7 | Win | 100 | 72 h 57 m | Show | |
09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 51 m | Show | |
09-04-17 | Tennessee v. Georgia Tech OVER 55 | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
09-03-17 | Texas A&M v. UCLA -3 | 44-45 | Loss | -120 | 71 h 39 m | Show | |
09-02-17 | BYU v. LSU UNDER 47 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 50 m | Show |
09-02-17 | Georgia Southern +34.5 v. Auburn | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 70 h 20 m | Show |
09-01-17 | Colorado State v. Colorado UNDER 66 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show | |
08-31-17 | Ohio State v. Indiana UNDER 58 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 51 m | Show |
08-26-17 | Hawaii v. UMass OVER 62 | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 69 h 32 m | Show | |
02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons +3 | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 53 h 48 m | Show | |
01-22-17 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | 17-36 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
01-22-17 | Packers +5 v. Falcons | Top | 21-44 | Loss | -109 | 76 h 49 m | Show |
01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs OVER 44.5 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
01-14-17 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 44.5 | 16-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
01-14-17 | Seahawks v. Falcons OVER 51.5 | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
01-09-17 | Clemson v. Alabama -6 | 35-31 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
01-08-17 | Giants v. Packers UNDER 45 | 13-38 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
01-08-17 | Giants +6 v. Packers | 13-38 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers OVER 45.5 | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
01-07-17 | Lions v. Seahawks OVER 43 | 6-26 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 51 m | Show | |
01-07-17 | Raiders v. Texans OVER 36.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 44 h 21 m | Show | |
01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State UNDER 60 | 52-49 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
01-01-17 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 49.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
01-01-17 | Jaguars v. Colts -4 | 20-24 | Push | 0 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
01-01-17 | Cowboys v. Eagles -4.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
12-31-16 | Ohio State v. Clemson UNDER 59 | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |
12-31-16 | Washington v. Alabama OVER 52.5 | 7-24 | Loss | -103 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
12-31-16 | Washington v. Alabama -14 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
12-30-16 | North Carolina v. Stanford UNDER 54 | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show | |
12-29-16 | Arkansas +7 v. Virginia Tech | 24-35 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 7 m | Show |