Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-21-19 | Texas State v. Georgia State -2.5 | 69-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia State minus the points over Texas State at 1 pm et on Saturday. We successfully faded Texas State two nights ago as it fell in a tightly-contested affair against Georgia Southern. Now it stays in the state of Georgia to face the Panthers on Saturday afternoon and I look for it to fall short once again. Keep in mind, the Bobcats solid overall record was boosted by some real layups earlier in the season. Georgia State will offer a tougher challenge, noting that it has won six straight games and sitting at 7-2 ATS in lined contests is one of the best bets in the nation, having already given the likes of Duke and Georgetown serious tests, on the road no less. Take Georgia State (10*). |
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12-20-19 | Lipscomb +11 v. Vermont | 63-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Lipscomb plus the points over Vermont at 7 pm et on Thursday. Lipscomb has won four of six games since starting the season with four losses in its first five. During their rough start, the Bison suffered two losses as double-digit underdogs, and the other two came by a combined four points so it wasn't really as bad as it seemed. Meanwhile, Vermont started its campaign with four straight wins but has gone just 3-5 since. The Catamounts should win this game - I'm just not convinced they do it by margin. Take Lipscomb (10*). |
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12-19-19 | Southern Utah v. Long Beach State +1.5 | 84-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Long Beach State plus the points over Southern Utah at 10 pm et on Thursday. At 3-8 on the season, but with a really brutal schedule behind them, this is a very strong motivational spot for the Long Beach State 49ers as they host the Southern Utah Jaguars on Thursday night. The 49ers enter this game losers of four games in a row with all four of those games being decided by double-digit margins. Southern Utah on the other hand is coming off back-to-back one-point victories that obviously could have gone either way. The Jaguars are playing with house money in this one, which is generally a favorable mentality for teams at this stage of the season but I'm just not convinced they'll be able to match LBSU's intensity in this, their last game before the Christmas break (Southern Utah won't play again until December 30th at Portland while LBSU plays Utah Valley State on Saturday). Take Long Beach State (10*). |
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12-19-19 | Texas State v. Georgia Southern -2 | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia Southern minus the points over Texas State at 7 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the short number with Georgia Southern on Thursday night as it looks to continue its strong play at home this season. The Eagles check in a perfect 4-0 at home this season while Texas State has just one win in four tries away from home, that coming against a struggling UNLV squad that has won just four of 12 games to date. The Bobcats did snap a brief two-game skid with a dominant 117-65 win last time out but that came against little-known Bethany (KS). Georgia Southern will obviously be up for this Sun Belt matchup after getting crushed 81-51 on the road against Bradley last time out. Take Georgia Southern (10*). |
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12-18-19 | North Carolina +13 v. Gonzaga | 81-94 | Push | 0 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Key injuries or not, the Tar Heels are still the Tar Heels and I expect them to be just fine as the season progresses. This is obviously a huge motivational spot for them after getting upset at home against Wofford last time out. That's not to say this isn't a big spot for the Zags as well. They'll be looking to avenge their loss to the Tar Heels in the 2017 national championship game. I'm not sure that really weighs all that heavily on the current players' minds, however. They'll simply be looking to win this game with little concern for what the final margin of victory is. Most are quick to write off the Tar Heels due to their injuries, but I expect them to hold their own tonight. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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12-18-19 | Canisius +9.5 v. Buffalo | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Canisius plus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Canisius Golden Griffins have gotten off to a sneaky-good 5-4 start this season and I look for them to give the Bulls a run in Buffalo on Wednesday night. Canisius snapped a brief two-game skid with an 80-72 victory over Holy Cross last time out. Keep in mind, its last two losses came by a combined 10 points on the road against Hofstra and Florida Atlantic. Those are the Golden Griffins only two losses going back to November 16th. Buffalo is coming off a stunning double-digit loss as a double-digit favorite at home against Army last time out. While the Bulls will be highly-motivated, and 'should' rebound with a victory here, I don't expect it to come by margin. Take Canisius (10*). |
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12-06-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -8 | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Iowa at 6:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Wolverines as they look to bounce back after suffering their first loss of the season last time out. That loss wasn't a big surprise as Michigan was in tough on the road in an underdog role against Louisville. This is a far more favorable spot as the Wolverines are back home to host the Hawkeyes in their Big Ten opener. Note that Iowa is coming off a stunning 14-point win on the road against Syracuse. The Hawkeyes have taken care of business against the teams they should this season but have also suffered double-digit losses at the hands of DePaul and San Diego State. They're ripe for a letdown here and I believe we're being asked to lay a reasonable number with UM. Take Michigan (10*). |
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04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia -1 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
NCAAB Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Texas Tech at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We cashed a ticket with Auburn in its near-miss against Virginia on Saturday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Cavaliers as they take on Texas Tech with the National Championship hanging in the balance on Monday night. This is all about the redemption story for Virginia as it looks to come full circle after being eliminated at the hands of a 16-seed in the opening round of last year's tournament. While Texas Tech has gone on what many consider to be a 'Cinderella run' in this tournament, the fact is, the Red Raiders are a three-seed that haven't really exceeded expectations by that wide of a margin. They're deserving of being here and should be able to give Virginia a run. With that being said, I simply don't see Texas Tech having many advantages here, as Virginia will be more than happy to slug it out with the Red Raiders for 40 minutes. The Cavaliers defense has come up big time and time again in this tournament and I anticipate more of the same on Monday night. Take Virginia (10*). |
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04-06-19 | Auburn +6 v. Virginia | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Auburn plus the points over Virginia at 6:09 pm et on Saturday. Not a lot of respect is being given to the Auburn Tigers based on this pointspread. The Tigers' Final Four run has been impressive to say the least as they've taken down Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky over their last three games. I don't need to tell you that's no easy task. I don't believe there's a significant intimidation factor at play here against Virginia, a team that has been bludgeoning the opposition with its defense, but can always go ice cold offensively at the drop of a hat. I'm not sure that the Cavaliers have the ability to ever completely put this game away, so I'll gladly grab the generous helping of points with the upstart Tigers as they aim to play giant-killer one more time. Take Auburn (10*). |
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03-31-19 | Auburn v. Kentucky -4.5 | 77-71 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over Auburn at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. The injury to Chuma Okeke is obviously key in this matchup. While it's certainly been reflected in the pointspread, I'm not sure enough weight has been given. He's been doing it all for the Tigers, and in what could become a bit more of a slugfest than the Tigers are used to on Sunday, his rebounding ability will truly be missed. The Wildcats didn't get a lot of press entering this tournament, a little bit odd for John Calipari's program. They've quietly gone about their business and are now one win away from the Final Four. The Wildcats are one of the best shooting teams in the nation, knocking down just shy of 48% of their shots, but it's been their defense that has really come up big in this tourney, allowing 44, 56 and 58 points in three games. Take Kentucky (10*). |
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03-30-19 | Purdue +4.5 v. Virginia | 75-80 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
NCAAB Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Purdue plus the points over Virginia at 8:49 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Boilermakers as they look to continue their quasi-Cinderella run in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday night. Top-seeded Virginia has looked good, but not great in this tournament. The Cavaliers will be in for a stiff challenge here as the Boilers have been playing with a nothing to lose mentality since the start of this tournament. In what projects to be a relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday night (unlike Purdue's wild overtime win over Tennessee on Thursday), I'm comfortable grabbing the nearly handful of points in a game that could very well go right down to the wire. Take Purdue (10*). |
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03-29-19 | LSU v. Michigan State -6 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan State minus the points over LSU at 7:09 pm et on Friday. There's a class difference between these two teams that I'm not sure is being properly accounted for in this pointspread. LSU is here thanks to a truly ugly win over Maryland last Saturday. Save for a slow start against Bradley in the opening round, the Spartans haven't really been tested. Over their last three halves of basketball, they've outscored the opposition by a whopping 112-80 margin. Defense, and the poise of Cassius Winston should ultimately be the difference in this matchup as I have Michigan State winning by a comfortable margin. Take Michigan State (10*). |
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03-28-19 | Oregon v. Virginia -8 | 49-53 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Oregon at 9:57 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Cavaliers in the Round of 32 and I wont' hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they take on upstart Oregon on Thursday night. The Ducks are quite simply the hottest bet in the tournament, entering this game riding a 10-game SU and ATS winning streak. However, without question this will be their toughest test since the start of that stretch. Virginia has looked extremely focused in this tournament so far, which is no real surprise after last year's stunning opening round loss to 16-seed UMBC. I still don't think the Cavaliers are getting as much attention as they should be - keep in mind, they're now an impressive 24-10 ATS this season. Virginia is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in this series, with its last victory over Oregon coming back in 2011. Expect to see the same story unfold on Thursday night. Take Virginia (10*). |
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03-24-19 | Oklahoma v. Virginia -10.5 | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Oklahoma at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. Virginia got a bit of a scare from Gardner-Webb in the opening round of this tournament on Friday but that shouldn't really come as a surprise, as the Cavaliers have been slow starters all season. I expect to see the Cavaliers come out with more focus this time around as they face a much tougher challenge against the Sooners. Oklahoma had no trouble at all cruising past Ole Miss in its tournament opener, scoring 95 points in a rout. It was one of the most impressive performances of the entire opening round. The Sooners will be involved in a much different game here, however, as the Cavaliers will of course look to slow things down and play to their strengths. Look for Virginia's suffocating defense to ultimately win out as the Cavs pull away for a convincing victory. Take Virginia (10*). |
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03-23-19 | Villanova +4 v. Purdue | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
NCAAB Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Villanova plus the points over Purdue at 9 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Wildcats in a game I believe they can win outright. Villanova ultimately failed to cover for us in their tournament opener, settling for a push in a four-point win over St. Mary's. Watching that game I didn't feel that it was quite as close as the final score indicated, however. I'm not sure we've seen Villanova's best game yet, really going back to the start of the Big East Tournament, which it did win. Purdue won and covered, narrowly, against Old Dominion in its Thursday matchup. The Boilermakers are good, but not great, and I really don't think there's any sort of intimidation factor at play here. Give me Jay Wright's defending national champion Wildcats over Matt Painter's Boilers on Saturday night. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-22-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Kansas State -4.5 | Top | 70-64 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
NCAAB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Cal-Irvine at 2 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Wildcats on Friday afternoon. Cal-Irvine has become a trendy upset pick here in round one of the NCAA Tournament, largely due to an injury to Dean Wade of Kansas State. The fact is, that Wade injury has essentially been common knowledge since before this line was released. In other words, it has already been factored into the pointspread, which I believe is simply too short. It's easy to forget that Kansas State went on a serious run in this tournament last year, winning three games before bowing out to Cinderella team Loyola-Chicago. Most of the players from that Wildcats squad are back this year and I believe they come in with a chip on their shoulder after bowing out of the Big 12 Tournament at the hands of Iowa State last weekend. The Wildcats have lost only three games since the start of February with two of those coming against Iowa State and the other against Kansas. Cal-Irvine hasn't lost since January 16th but has it really been tested? The Anteaters are without a doubt a formidable opponent but I like Kansas State to ultimately pull away for the win and cover. Take Kansas State (10*). |
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03-22-19 | Iowa v. Cincinnati -4 | 79-72 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Iowa at 12:15 pm et on Friday. I believe Cincinnati is a vastly underrated commodity entering this tournament. Yes, the Bearcats have limped to a 14-20 ATS mark this season but they got themselves on a nice run in the AAC Tournament, culminating with an upset win over Houston in the final. Cincinnati checks in having delivered the cash in two of its last three contests. Iowa has just one win to its credit over its last six games and that came against an awful Illinois squad. The Illini's only other win over their last eight games came by way of overtime at home against another non-NCAA Tournament team in Indiana. As bad as the Bearcats have been ATS this season, the Hawkeyes have been even worse, going 13-20 ATS. Look for Mick Cronin's Bearcats to perform above expectations in their first game of the tournament. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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03-21-19 | St. Mary's v. Villanova -4 | Top | 57-61 | Push | 0 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Villanova minus the points over St. Mary's at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. The St. Mary's Gaels are coming off a high-profile upset win over Gonzaga to secure the WCC Tournament title last week. They clearly caught the Bulldogs looking ahead to a one-seed in this tournament, and also napping a bit after taking the two regular season matchups with relative ease. I like the way the well-coached Villanova Wildcats come into this game after gutting out a couple of tight wins to wrap up another Big East Tournament championship last weekend. Despite being a marked team as the defending national champions, the Wildcats have still managed to post a solid 20-14 ATS record this season. The last time these two schools met was the 2010 NCAA Tournament and we actually cashed with the Gaels in an outright underdog victory in that Round of 32 affair. That was a team led by Matthew Dellavedova, Omar Samhan and Mickey McConnell. The line here is similar, but I believe the gap is wider favoring the Wildcats. Villanova may not be poised to repeat as national champions, but I do expect it to advance on to the Round of 32 with a convincing victory on Thursday night. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-21-19 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Gonzaga -27.5 | 49-87 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 7:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the one-seed Bulldogs on Thursday as they begin their NCAA Tournament march against Fairleigh Dickinson. There's no need to overthink this one. FDU is used to knocking down close to 50% of its shots but won't come close to approaching that shooting percentage here. Gonzaga has played lock-down defense all season, holding the opposition to just over 65 points per game on below 39% shooting. Sure, the Bulldogs suffered a hiccup in the WCC Tournament championship game, falling to rival St. Mary's but I don't think they lost too much sleep over it. Gonzaga may have got caught looking past the Gaels, but will undoubtedly be up for this one. FDU hasn't lost since February 14th, but that was a 25-point setback, at home no less. This is also a team that lost by 35 points against Rutgers to open the season. The class difference between these two squads is being property represented with this lofty line. Take Gonzaga (10*). |
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03-21-19 | Minnesota v. Louisville -5 | 86-76 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Minnesota at 12:15 pm et on Thursday. I realize that this is going to be a popular pick on Thursday afternoon but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. This Minnesota squad doesn't impress me at all. We're talking about a Gophers team that ultimately posted a losing record in conference play, albeit against a tough Big Ten slate. I really question how much the Gophers have left in the tank right now after looking completely out of sorts in a blowout loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament last week. Much like Minnesota, Louisville limps into this one after getting outclassed by North Carolina in the ACC Tournament. I give the Cardinals the considerable edge at the free throw line and on the glass in this matchup and I think that's ultimately what this game comes down to. Everyone remembers that loss to UNC and a blowout loss at Syracuse in a nationally-televised game back in late February. Outside of those poor showings, the Cards have been solid and while we're only worried about round one, they could be poised to go on a run in this tournament. Take Louisville (10*). |
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03-16-19 | Florida +3 v. Auburn | 62-65 | Push | 0 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida plus the points over Auburn at 1 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have obviously impressed so far in this tournament and while Florida would appear to be in a prime letdown spot following yesterday's come-from-behind win over favored LSU, I actually expect that victory to fuel the Gators fire against Auburn on Saturday. The Tigers got the better of the Gators in their lone regular season meeting, their first win in what seems like an eternity in this series. I simply feel that these two teams are mirror images of one another and that the right move is to grab the points in a game that could easily go either way. Behind another balanced offensive performance, look for the Gators to hang tough for 40 minutes and put Auburn's SEC title hopes in doubt. Take Florida (10*). |
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03-15-19 | Grambling State v. Prairie View A&M -3.5 | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Prairie View A&M minus the points over Grambling at 3:30 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Panthers in this matchup. Prairie View will fly below most bettors' radar, after all they've gone just 20-12 SU and 16-14-1 ATS overall this season. But the Panthers have been the class of the SWAC, posting an 18-1 record in-conference. Meanwhile, Grambling has had an ok season, going 11-8 in conference play, thanks in large part to four straight wins entering this contest. Keep in mind, all four of those wins came against losing opponents, with two of them coming against two of the worst teams in the nation. Grambling was competitive in its home matchup with Prairie View during the regular season but still dropped the cash in both matchups, including a 17-point loss on the road. Take Prairie View A&M (10*). |
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03-14-19 | UMKC v. Utah Valley -9 | Top | 64-71 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
WAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah Valley minus the points over UMKC at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with Utah Valley on Thursday night as it aims to march on in the WAC Tournament in Las Vegas. The Wolverines have been absolutely rolling since early January, with only two losses dating back to January 12th and both of those came against the top team in the conference, New Mexico State, which has gone 27-4 this season. It's worth noting that both of those games could have gone either way with the Aggies winning by five and seven points. UMKC closed out the regular season with a beatdown of Chicago State but that's nothing to brag about as the Cougars have only three wins to their credit this season. Prior to that, UMKC's last win came on February 16th. While both regular season meetings in this series went to Utah Valley, neither game was a real blowout. I feel that will help keep the Wolverines guard up here. Take Utah Valley (10*). |
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03-14-19 | Delaware State v. North Carolina Central -11 | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. Central minus the points over Delaware State at 6 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Eagles as they take on Delaware State on Thursday evening. N.C. Central last lost only two games since February 9th and those losses came against the two top ranked teams in the MEAC in Norfolk State and North Carolina A&T, both of which advanced in this tournament with victories last night. Delaware State has only six wins to its credit this season, finishing 12th in the MEAC. The last time these two teams met back on February 11th, the Eagles rolled to a 35-point victory. The Hornets of course did win their tournament opener but that came against Savannah State, a team that ranks seventh in the MEAC with an 11-20 record. Delaware State will be taking a bigger step up in class here. Take N.C. Central (10*). |
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03-14-19 | Chicago State v. New Mexico State -26 | 49-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Mexico State minus the points over Chicago State at 3 pm et on Thursday. There's already a sizable class different between New Mexico State and the rest of the WAC but here that will be even more pronounced as the Aggies take on last place Chicago State, a team that hasn't won since way back on December 6th, and that victory came against the likes of Trinity Christian. Neither regular season meeting between these two teams was close, with New Mexico State winning by 44 and 34-point margins. Of course, there's a chance the Aggies could overlook the Cougars here, but I don't see it. New Mexico State took its foot off the gas in the second half against Cal Baptist in its regular season finale, outscored by 14 points over those 20 minutes. Here I look for a focused 40-minute effort from the Aggies. Take New Mexico State (10*). |
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03-13-19 | Houston Baptist v. Lamar -4 | Top | 79-81 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NCAAB Southland Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Lamar minus the points over Houston Baptist at 6 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this matchup sets up for Lamar and why not? After all, the Cardinals just defeated the Huskies by 35 points back in February. In fact, Lamar has lost only two games dating back to January 26th and those came against the two best teams in the Southland Conference, Abilene-Christian and Sam Houston State. Houston Baptist has played much better basketball since the start of February, finishing eighth in the Southland Conference. The Huskies did defeat Lamar by six points at home back on January 2nd with Ian DuBose going off for 33 points in that overtime victory. That one clearly could have gone either way and the Cardinals certainly proved their superiority in the aforementioned next meeting. I'll lay the relatively short number here. Take Lamar (10*). |
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03-09-19 | Western Illinois v. South Dakota State -15 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
NCAAB Summit League Game of the Year. My selection is on South Dakota State minus the points over Western Illinois at 7 pm et on Saturday. We just saw this same matchup one week ago with the Jackrabbits rolling to a 20-point victory. I don't see this one playing out much differently as the two teams do battle in the Summit League Tournament. There's a major class difference between these two squads. The Leathernecks have managed only three victories since the start of January and none of those wins were considered major upsets. This obviously would be. South Dakota State finished the regular season tops in the Summit League but I don't expect it to let its guard down here, noting that the Jackrabbits have been involved in some close games against tough opposition lately, with four of their last five games being decided by single-digits. Keep in mind, those closer games came against the second, third, fourth and fifth-place teams in the Summit League. This one has blowout written all over it. Take South Dakota State (10*). |
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03-02-19 | Belmont -13.5 v. SE Missouri State | Top | 84-66 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
NCAAB Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Belmont minus the points over Southeast Missouri State at 8 pm et on Saturday. Belmont is one of the country's best kept secrets, having gone 24-4 overall this season, currently sitting atop the Ohio Valley Conference standings. The Bruins have now scored 90+ points in four straight games and I don't believe Southeast Missouri State will prove to be any match for them on Saturday night, noting that Belmont already took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 26 points. Just two nights ago, the Bruins routed Tennessee- Martin 112-67 as 11.5-point favorites. Southeast Missouri State is coming off a blowout win of its own, but that came against 9-20 Tennessee State. Expect a rout on Saturday night. Take Belmont (10*). |
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02-23-19 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -10.5 | 46-85 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Oklahoma State at 4 pm et on Saturday. This is a complete mismatch but the fact that Oklahoma State is coming off a win over TCU is helping to keep the line in check on Saturday afternoon in Manhattan. Kansas State checks in 10-3 in Big 12 play and has already blown out the Cowboys by 18 points, on the road no less, earlier this month. The Wildcats got a nice tune-up for this game, rolling to a 14-point victory at West Virginia last time out. Now they're back at home, where they last suffered a 14-point loss against Iowa State so their motivation level should be extremely high. Kansas State has won three straight meetings in this series, both SU and ATS. Oklahoma State has been one of the worst bets in the nation this season, going 9-17 ATS in lined contests. Don't count on any improvement here. Take Kansas State (10*). |
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02-18-19 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech +5 | 64-58 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia Tech plus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with Virginia Tech in this rivalry matchup on Monday night. The Hokies lone home loss this season came exactly two weeks ago against Louisville. That started a pretty poor stretch as the Hokies have gone 0-3-1 ATS over their last four games. I do expect to see them put forth a strong effort here and it's worth noting that Virginia also brings poor form to the table, having gone 1-4 ATS over its last five games. Most will key on the Cavaliers big win on the road against North Carolina last week but I haven't been overly impressed with the way they've played lately. Virginia easily disposed of Virginia Tech by 22 points in their last meeting back on January 15th but I expect to see a different story unfold here. Take Virginia Tech (10*). |
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02-16-19 | Florida State v. Georgia Tech +6 | Top | 69-47 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAB ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Florida State at 2 pm et on Saturday. Wins rarely come easy for the Seminoles here in Atlanta, where they lost their last meeting by 22 points and their previous two victories on this floor came by two and four points. Florida State did take the first meeting between these two teams this season by 10 points, but that was thanks to an abysmal 28.3% shooting effort from the Yellow Jackets, including 3-of-21 from beyond the arc. The 'Noles enter this contest on the heels of three straight ATS wins. They haven't won four in a row ATS since starting last season with a perfect 7-0 ATS record in non-conference play. Georgia Tech has lost six straight games in ACC play to fall to 3-9 in-conference this season. With that being said, the Jackets have gone a solid 16-9 ATS overall this season. Take Georgia Tech (10*). |
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02-10-19 | Ohio State v. Indiana -2.5 | 55-52 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Ohio State at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams have been rather disappointing this season with Ohio State checking in 5-6 in conference play and Indiana sitting at 4-8. Both have seemingly turned the corner a bit lately, however, with Ohio State reeling off two straight wins heading in and Indiana coming off an upset win at Michigan State followed up by a narrow home loss to Iowa. The Hoosiers have outscored the opposition by an average margin of nearly 14 points here at home this season. Ohio State shoots just a shade north of 40% from the field on the road this season. Take Indiana (10*). |
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02-09-19 | Colorado v. USC -4.5 | 69-65 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on USC minus the points over Colorado at 10 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Trojans on Saturday night as they host the Buffaloes in a Pac-12 showdown. There's not a lot to choose between these two teams as far as overall records go. I will point out, however, Colorado has not won here at the Galen Center since back in 2015 and that was an overtime win that easily could have gone either way. The Buffaloes check in off back-to-back SU and ATS victories. I just don't believe a third straight win is in the cards. USC is coming off a rare home loss, falling by seven points against Utah last time out. The Trojans have outscored the opposition by over 12 points per game here at home this season, holding them to just 66.2 points per game on 38% shooting. Take USC (10*). |
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02-09-19 | Auburn v. LSU -2 | Top | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
NCAAB SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on LSU minus the points over Auburn at 2 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with LSU as it tries to snap a three-game losing streak against the Auburn Tigers. The Bayou Bengals haven't defeated Auburn since 2016 although it's worth noting that they've been significant underdogs in each of the last three meetings. The shoe is on the other foot this time around as LSU is favored at the time of writing. Motivation should be high for LSU as it dropped its most recent home game as a 10-point favorite against Arkansas. Keep in mind, the Tigers are still 11-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 16 points per contest. Auburn checks in having won three in a row but it was favored by at least 8.5 points in all three of those games. The Tigers are just 1-4 SU in true road games, allowing nearly 80 points per game on just shy of 47% shooting. Take LSU (10*). |
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02-07-19 | San Francisco +18 v. Gonzaga | Top | 62-92 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
NCAAB WCC Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Thursday. Motivation should be high for the Dons as they try to avoid a third consecutive loss on the road in conference play. Their last two losses at San Diego and St. Mary's really could have gone either way. Despite those two setbacks, they're still a winning team on the road this season. Obviously Gonzaga is an elite team - a true national championship contender. With that being said, the Zags haven't been involved in a close game in months, essentially. They could actually use a bit of a sweat here and I think they get just that. Keep in mind, the Dons played even with the Bulldogs for a half in their previous meeting back on January 12th. Gonzaga shot better than 52% as a team in that game while San Francisco was completely off, hitting just 40.6% of their shots. I'm not about to call for an outright Dons victory here, but I am confident we'll see them stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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02-06-19 | Georgetown v. Providence -3 | 76-67 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
NCAAB Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Providence minus the points over Georgetown at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. I'll lay the points with the Friars in this matchup as they try to get back on track in Big East play following consecutive road losses. Providence just missed in the first of those two setbacks, losing by a bucket at Seton Hall. It suffered a bit of a hangover of sorts after that, falling by double-digits at DePaul last time out. I expect a solid bounce-back performance here at home, where the Friars have gone 9-3 straight-up this season. Georgetown hung tough for a while but ultimately fell by 12 points at Villanova on Monday night. The Hoyas have shown glimpses of brilliance this season, particularly in conference play. However, it's worth noting that Georgetown is just 1-8 in the last nine meetings in this series. That lone victory came in their most recent meeting back on January 12th but the Hoyas needed overtime to secure the 'W'. Take Providence (10*). |
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02-05-19 | Florida State v. Syracuse -3 | 80-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
NCAAB ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Syracuse minus the points over Florida State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Syracuse as it welcomes Florida State to the Carrier Dome. The Seminoles have climbed back to the .500 mark in ACC play thanks to three consecutive victories heading into this one. Keep in mind, the 'Noles are just 2-3 straight-up in five true road games this season. Florida State has never won here at the Carrier Dome, going 0-3, losing those games by 13, 13 and 10 points. Syracuse has suffered just one loss here at home in conference play and that came in a classic letdown/sandwich spot back on January 12th against Georgia Tech. The Orange were just a couple of days removed from a convincing win over Clemson before hitting the road to face Duke (a game they won) when they fell to the Yellow Jackets at the Carrier Dome. Syracuse has held the opposition to just 58.3 points per game on 37.6% shooting at home this season. Take Syracuse (10*). |
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02-04-19 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma +2.5 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma plus the points over Iowa State at 9 pm et on Monday. Absolutely huge spot for the Sooners here as they try to turn things around off back-to-back losses to Baylor and West Virginia. That loss to Baylor came in blowout fashion right here at home last Monday night so motivation will certainly be high as they host a rolling Iowa State squad on Monday night. The Cyclones. have won three games in a row and five of their last six overall, going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. Note that Oklahoma has held the opposition to 37.7% shooting at home this season. They check in a solid 8-2 straight-up at home while Iowa State is just an even 3-3 in true road games. This has been a home-dominated series and I like that trend to continue on Monday. Take Oklahoma (10*). |
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02-03-19 | Stanford -5.5 v. California | 84-81 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stanford minus the points over California at 4 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Cardinal on Sunday afternoon as they travel to face the listless Bears in Berkeley. Stanford is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now, having won three of its last five games, shooting just shy of 51% from the field over that stretch. Cal continues to struggle, having dropped nine games in a row, staying within single-digits in only three of those games. Note that the Bears are shooting barely above 37% as a team over their last five games while allowing opponents to shoot north of 52%. Take Stanford (10*). |
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02-02-19 | Notre Dame +3 v. Boston College | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Notre Dame plus the points over Boston College at 2 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Irish on Saturday afternoon as they aim to end their long losing streak at Boston College. Notre Dame has lost five straight and seven of its last eight games overall. However, it's worth noting that its last two setbacks have come as double-digit underdogs against Virginia and Duke so I'm not sure how much more could have been expected. Its previous three losses during its current skid all could have gone either way (decided by six points or less). Boston College has lost six of its last eight games but has managed to post victories in two of its last three games. It's been a long, long time since Boston College managed to beat Notre Dame. With motivation high for the Irish I believe the Eagles streak of futility with continue here. Take Notre Dame (10*). |
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01-29-19 | Ball State +12 v. Buffalo | Top | 59-83 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
NCAAB MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Ball State plus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Ball State may be just 2-5 in MAC play so far this season but four of those five losses could have truly gone either way and here we're being given a generous helping of points to work with as the Cardinals challenge the nationally-ranked Buffalo Bulls. Note that the road team has won three straight, four of five and six of the last nine meetings in this series. It's worth noting that three of the Bulls six ATS losses this season have come in their last four contests. Buffalo will be challenged here, facing a Ball State squad that averages over 78 points per game on 51.1% shooting on the road this season. Ball State is actually the slightly better free throw shooting team and can hold its own on the boards as well. Take Ball State (10*). |
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01-28-19 | TCU v. Texas Tech -4.5 | 65-84 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over TCU at 9 pm et on Monday. The Red Raiders come into this game riding a four-game ATS losing streak but did snap a three-game straight-up losing skid with a 67-64 win over Arkansas last time out. Note that they're 11-1 SU at home this season, where they shoot just shy of 50% as a team while limiting the opposition to a ridiculous 32.8% shooting. They're outscoring opponents by over 21 points per contest on this floor. TCU is coming off back-to-back wins over Texas and Florida but both of those games could have gone either way. They're just 1-3 SU in true road games this season. Texas Tech is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. Take Texas Tech (10*). |
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01-28-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -6 | Top | 77-47 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Baylor at 9 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with Oklahoma in this contest as the Sooners aim to put an end to Baylor's four-game SU and ATS winning streak. Motivation will obviously be high for Oklahoma as it checks in a disappointing 3-4 in Big 12 play this season. Meanwhile, Baylor has won four of its first six games in conference play. Note that the Sooners have held the opposition to 36% shooting at home this season, while shooting an impressive 47% themselves. We won with Baylor on Saturday as it got past Alabama but I won't hesitate to switch gears here. Take Oklahoma (10*). |
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01-26-19 | Evansville +3.5 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 74-81 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
NCAAB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Evansville plus the points over Northern Iowa at 8 pm et on Saturday. Not a lot separates these two teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. In fact, they check in sporting identical conference records. With that being said, I believe Evansville has a little more upside and I'm confident the Purple Aces will hang tough for 40 minutes on Saturday night. Northern Iowa is 2-1 at home in MVC play but it averages just 61 points per game on 37.6% shooting on this floor this season. The Panthers also check in shooting a miserable 65% from the free throw line here at home. By contrast, the Purple Aces are shooting better than 74% from the charity stripe on the road. Take Evansville (10*). |
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01-26-19 | Alabama v. Baylor -3 | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Alabama at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Bears as they host the Crimson Tide on Saturday. Alabama is in a clear letdown spot after blowout out Ole Miss last time out. The Crimson Tide are still just an even 3-3 in conference play. This is of course a non-conference showdown - part of the SEC-Big 12 challenge. Alabama has gone just 2-3 straight-up in true road games this season where it allows nearly 72 points per game. Baylor rolls into this one off three straight victories, both SU and ATS. The Bears have held the opposition to just 61 points per game on 40.9% shooting at home this season. Take Baylor (10*). |
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01-25-19 | Brown +7 v. Yale | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
NCAAB Ivy League Game of the Year. My selection is on Brown plus the points over Yale at 7 pm et on Friday. Yale got the better of Brown last week week, on the road no less, prevailing by three points as a small favorite. The Bulldogs have now reeled off seven straight wins but went just 3-3 ATS in lined contests over that stretch. Brown saw its six-game losing streak come to an end last time out and the Bears will be highly-motivated to avoid an 0-2 hole in Ivy League play tonight. While Brown hasn't had much success on the road against Yale, it's not as if it has had its doors blown off with regularity either. Note that three of its last four games here were decided by single-digits - all straight-up losses for the Bears. Yale has shot the lights out here at home this season but it will face a challenge here with Brown limiting the opposition to 38.7% shooting on the road this season. The Bulldogs did shoot better than 47% against Brown last weekend, but still won by just three points. Take Brown (10*). |
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01-24-19 | St. Mary's v. BYU +1.5 | Top | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
NCAAB WCC Game of the Year. My selection is on BYU plus the points over St. Mary's at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Gaels and Cougars renew their rivalry on Thursday night after St. Mary's routed BYU earlier this month. I like the Cougars to get back at the Gaels here, as they host them for the first time since December 2017. St. Mary's enters this contest riding a four-game winning streak, both SU and ATS. The Gaels are off to a 4-1 start in WCC play, although it is worth noting that their lone loss came on the road, where they've gone just 2-2 SU in true road contests this season. BYU checks in 9-1 at home, where it averages just shy of 84 points per game on better than 48% shooting while holding the opposition to under 40% shooting. The Cougars are coming off a blowout loss at San Francisco. Perhaps they were caught looking ahead to this matchup, noting that they had won three games in a row previously. I understand the logic behind the Gaels being favored in this matchup, but I'm confident we'll see BYU defend its home floor. Take BYU (10*). |
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01-23-19 | Texas v. TCU -4 | Top | 61-65 | Push | 0 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on TCU minus the points over Texas at 7 pm et on Wednesday. This feels like a letdown spot for Texas off Saturday's thrilling home win over rival Oklahoma. Prior to that, the Longhorns had dropped three games in a row. TCU is coming off a 10-point loss at Kansas State and has now dropped three of its last four contests. However, the Horned Frogs are a terrific 8-1 straight-up at home this season, including a 31-point beatdown of West Virginia in their last game on this floor. They're averaging just shy of 82 points per game on better than 51% shooting at home this season. Meanwhile, Texas is putting up only 67.7 ppg on the road. Also note that TCU has won its last two home meetings with Texas by 16 and 15 points. Take TCU (10*). |
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01-22-19 | Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech | 61-63 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Notre Dame over Georgia Tech at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Sitting at 1-4 in conference play, this is obviously a big game for Notre Dame. The Irish are coming off back-to-back losses at North Carolina and at home against N.C. State but both of those games really could have gone either way. I'll go back to the loss at Chapel Hill in particular. The Irish didn't play all that well in that game, but still lost by just six points. Georgia Tech has not played well in its last two games, dropping back-to-back contests both SU and ATS at Clemson and at home against Louisville. The Yellow Jackets have played relatively well at home this season but I'm not sure they'll match Notre Dame's motivation level in this one. The Irish haven't won on this floor since 2015 but all three matchups here since have been very close. Take Notre Dame (10*). |
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01-21-19 | Creighton v. Georgetown -1.5 | Top | 91-87 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
NCAAB Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgetown minus the points over Creighton at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the short number with Georgetown as it hosts a reeling Creighton squad on Monday night. The Blue Jays have lost four straight games and are giving up a whopping 82 points per game on just shy of 49% shooting on the road this season. Meanwhile, Georgetown will play with a lot of motivation here having dropped three straight meetings in this series, while also coming off a narrow 74-71 home loss to Marquette. The Hoyas are 9-3 at home this season, averaging north of 87 ppg on 45.6% shooting on this floor. Take Georgetown (10*). |
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01-19-19 | Dayton v. St Bonaventure +3 | Top | 89-86 | Push | 0 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
NCAAB Atlantic-10 Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Bonaventure plus the points over Dayton at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Bonnies at home on Saturday afternoon. St. Bonaventure is coming off a double-digit loss at Rhode Island earlier this week but that's no big surprise as it has gone 0-6 on the road this season. Here at home, the Bonnies have been more productive, going 5-2 straight-up. In fact, in their most recent home game they beat St. Joe's by a lopsided 73-47 margin. While they haven't enjoyed much success in this particular matchup, I feel they catch Dayton in a good spot here. The Flyers saw their six-game winning streak come to an end last time out, suffering a narrow 76-71 loss at VCU. The Flyers are now a miserable 1-7 ATS over their last eight contests. Take St. Bonaventure (10*). |
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01-18-19 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2 | 75-61 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Maryland at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Just a huge motivational spot for the Buckeyes here as they try to get back to even in conference play and host the red hot Terps on Friday night. Maryland has reeled off six straight wins but actually knocked down only 16 field goal attempts against Wisconsin earlier this week. Note that four of their last six wins have come at home, and three of those came by four points or less. The Buckeyes are coming off three straight losses but do check in 8-2 SU at home this season, where they average over 80 points per game on just shy of 49% shooting. The Terps have taken four of the last five meetings in this series but the last time they hooked up on this floor, the Buckeyes rolled to a 91-69 win last January. Take Ohio State (10*). |
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01-17-19 | Manhattan v. St. Peter's -6 | 58-56 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Peter's minus the points over Manhattan at 7 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Peacocks as they aim to build off a win over Marist and get past a reeling Manhattan squad on Thursday night. St. Peter's is 2-2 SU but 3-1 ATS in conference play this season and has an excellent opportunity to get back over the .500 mark here. Manhattan is coming off back-to-back blowout road losses in-conference and continues to struggle offensively, shooting below 40% as a team. Poor free throw shooting has really cost the Jaspers as they're connecting on just over 56% of their attempts from the charity stripe. It's also worth noting that Manhattan is allowing opponents to shoot 48% from the field on the road this season. Take St. Peter's (10*). |
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01-16-19 | Butler -2 v. DePaul | 87-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Butler minus the points over DePaul at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. Butler is coming off back-to-back conference road losses to fall to 1-3 in conference play. Keep in mind, both of those games could have gone either way with the Bulldogs falling by a single point in each contest. I look for the Bulldogs to bounce back against a DePaul squad they've defeated in nine straight meetings. The Blue Demons are coming off back-to-back wins over Seton Hall and St. John's. Butler checks in winless on the road this season with some disappointing numbers both offensively and defensively, but as I mentioned, they've held their own away from home in conference play and will be highly-motivated to pick up a much-needed victory here on Wednesday night. Take Butler (10*). |
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01-15-19 | Seton Hall v. Providence -1.5 | 63-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence minus the points over Seton Hall at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. Seton Hall has taken three straight meetings in this series but I look for Providence to reverse that trend with a victory on Tuesday night. The Friars come in having dropped three straight games to open conference play. Prior to that they had won three games in a row both SU and ATS. Note that each of their last three losses have been relatively close including a six-point overtime loss at Georgetown last time out. Seton Hall checks in with just three ATS victories over its last eight contests. The Pirates have struggled to contain opposing offenses on the road this season allowing just shy of 74 points per game on 45.8% shooting. Take Providence (10*). |
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01-14-19 | Wisconsin +4 v. Maryland | 60-64 | Push | 0 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin plus the points over Maryland at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with the Badgers as they try to close the gap on Maryland in Big Ten play. Wisconsin is coming off an overtime loss on the road against Purdue last Thursday - marking its third loss in its last four games. Keep in mind, prior to that setback, the Badgers went on the road and won by 19 points as a small favorite at Penn State. Maryland is off to a red hot 5-1 start in conference play but its last two home wins have come by a combined five points. Wisconsin has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. Take Wisconsin (10*). |
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01-11-19 | Iona v. Niagara -1 | 90-95 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Iona at 7 pm et on Friday. We cashed a ticket with ease fading Niagara in its last game, a double-digit loss on the road against Fairfield. That dropped the Purple Eagles to 0-2 in MAAC play this season but I expect them to get into the win column on Friday night as they host Iona. Both of these teams have a strong home-road dichotomy with Iona having yet to win on the road this season, going winless in five tries. The Gaels check in allowing over 91 points per game on 48.6% shooting on the road this season, opening the door for the Purple Eagles to get their offense in gear back at home where they've been a little uneven this season. Take Niagara (10*). |
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01-09-19 | Arizona State v. California +10 | 80-66 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on California plus the points over Arizona State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Arizona State is coming off a blowout home win over Colorado last time out, earning its first victory in Pac-12 play. I expect a bit of a letdown here as a matchup with Cal won't yield a great deal of motivation, noting that the Golden Bears are 0-2 in conference play so far and the Sun Devils swept the season series last year. Cal checks in 5-2 on its home floor where it averages over 76 points per game on 46.6% shooting. Arizona State averages 70.5 ppg on just north of 36% shooting on the road. Take California (10*). |
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01-08-19 | Manhattan v. Marist UNDER 123 | 63-78 | Loss | -122 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Manhattan and Marist at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring games and 'over' results. With that being said, both the Jaspers and Red Foxes have struggled to get out of the 50's on most nights this season and I'm expecting a return to 'normal' when they match up on Tuesday night. Manhattan is averaging just north of 52 points per game on 38% shooting on the road this season and runs into a Marist squad that will be highly-motivated after dropping its MAAC opener. The Jaspers have been vulnerable at the defensive end of the floor but I'm not sure Marist is prepared to take advantage. Note that the Red Foxes shoot below 43% as a team and right around 35% from three-point range at home this season and that's considering a small sample size of three games that includes an 82-point outburst against Columbia way back on November 10th. Take the under (10*). |
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01-07-19 | Niagara v. Fairfield -4 | 59-77 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Fairfield minus the points over Niagara at 7 pm et on Monday. Fairfield is in desperate need of a victory here at home as it has opened the MAAC slate with consecutive losses. Both of those games could have gone either way at home against Rider and on the road against Iona. Fairfield is also off to a winless start in conference play, falling by 10 points at Manhattan. Note that the straight-up winner has gone 10-1 ATS in all Niagara games where the spread has been in single-digits this season, as is the case here. In the same situation, the SU winner has gone 7-2-1 ATS in all Fairfield games. Niagara hasn't won a game on this floor since February of 2015 and I don't see that trend changing here. Take Fairfield (10*). |
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11-20-18 | Duquesne v. Notre Dame OVER 140 | 56-67 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duquesne and Notre Dame at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results - games in which they shot in the low-40's percentage-wise. I'm anticipating a bounce-back offensively from both squads here, and believe this could turn out to be a bit of a track meet. The Irish have actually seen their last three games go 'under' the total after opening their campaign with an 84-67 win over Illinois-Chicago. I will point out that the Irish did get loose in the second half of their most recent game against William and Mary, scoring 46 points in the final 20 minutes. They got to 73 points in that game despite shooting right around 41% including a dismal 25% from three-point range. I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from their second half performance in that contest. Duquesne is coming off an impressive win over Radford (the same Radford team that beat Notre Dame). The Dukes scored just 69 points in that victory but that wasn't unexpected with the total sitting in the 130's for that one. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-18 | Oakland +8 v. UNLV | 61-74 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland plus the points over UNLV at 10 pm et on Friday. Oakland missed out on postseason basketball for the first time in a long time last season and with a lot of roster turnover heading into this campaign, many expect it to be a long one for the Grizzlies. I'm not so sure. They're off to a 1-2 start but did deliver an ATS win in their lone previous game as an underdog, falling by just one point against a good Toledo squad. UNLV has split its first two games and is coming off a blowout victory over Cal-Riverside. Of course, that was to be expected as the Runnin' Rebels were double-digit favorites in that game. While UNLV should be better than it was a year ago, I can't help but feel it is laying too many points in this early season non-conference clash. Take Oakland (10*). |
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04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova -6.5 | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villanova minus the points over Michigan at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We've been backing Villanova each game going back to the Elite Eight and I see little reason to jump ship now. The Wildcats appear poised for their second national title in three years, and I don't expect the pointspread to come into play against Michigan on Monday night. Credit the Wolverines for rallying from a big second half deficit against a game Loyola-Chicago squad on Saturday night but the challenge will be a little tougher this time around. Villanova has been relentless over the course of this tournament, suffering just a few brief lapses. Look for the Wildcats to win this one going away. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
Final Four Game of the Year. My selection is on Villanova minus the points over Kansas at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Villanova was my pick to cut down the nets in April at the start of this tournament and I'm certainly going to stick with that prediction now that the Wildcats have reached the Final Four. The Wildcats were certainly challenged in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight last weekend, but passed both tests. Of course, Kansas was in a similar boat, including an instant classic against Duke last Sunday afternoon. But Villanova is favored for a reason in this one. Kansas is certainly a formidable opponent, after all the Jayhawks are a one-seed. I'm just not convinced the Jayhawks can hang within arm's reach of the Wildcats for 40 minutes on Saturday night. The Wildcats have the look of a championship squad once again under Jay Wright, and I look for them to post a convincing win on their way to Monday's title game. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech v. Villanova -6.5 | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villanova minus the points over Texas Tech at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Wildcats on Friday night as they pulled away late for a win and cover against West Virginia. I'm not sure that they'll find themselves in as much trouble on Sunday as they outmatch Texas Tech from the opening tipoff. Credit the Red Raiders for getting to this point. I considered them to be over-seeded as a number three entering this tournament but they've proved me wrong to this point. On the flip side, though, I picked Villanova to cut down the nets in April and this is a team that appears to be getting stronger with each passing game. Look for Jay Wright's squad to turn in another fine performance on Sunday afternoon as the Wildcats dance their way into the Final Four in convincing fashion. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Florida State at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with Big Blue on Saturday night. I had Michigan as a Final Four team at the outset of this tournament and I'm not about to change my opinion now. I believe the Wolverines catch a favorable draw here thanks to the Seminoles upset win on Thursday. While I do feel the Seminoles can keep pace for a while in this game, it will be Michigan's outside shooting that takes over as the 'Noles wear down in the second half. I actually had this number close to -6/-6.5 but the betting marketplace is fairly high on Florida State after the upset over Gonzaga. The Bulldogs were vulnerable. The Wolverines are not. Take Michigan (10*). |
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03-23-18 | Texas Tech v. Purdue -1.5 | 78-65 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Texas Tech at 9:55 pm et on Friday. Texas Tech needed everything it had to get through the opening weekend of this tournament, facing stiff challenges from both Stephen F. Austin and Florida. Now the Red Raiders will step up in class against Purdue, and I believe this will prove to be the end of the line. The Boilermakers faced some adversity at the start of this tournament, losing their starting center, a big part of what they do at both ends of the floor. But they persevered in the opening two rounds, including a victory over a game Butler squad last time out. Now the Boilers' catch a favorable draw against Texas Tech and we're being asked to lay a very reasonable number. Take Purdue (10*). |
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03-23-18 | West Virginia v. Villanova -4.5 | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villanova minus the points over West Virginia at 7:25 pm et on Friday. I picked Villanova to win it all prior to the start of this tournament and I stand by that pick as we work through the Sweet 16. This is undoubtedly a tough matchup for the Wildcats but I also believe the Mountaineers will draw the right level of motivation and focus out of Jay Wright's squad. This is actually the type of game the Wildcats probably need after cruising past Radford and Alabama. Meanwhile, I felt that West Virginia overachieved in blowout wins over Murray State and Marshall. Look for Villanova to impose its will as this game wears on. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-22-18 | Kansas State v. Kentucky -5 | 61-58 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over Kansas State at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. Kansas State has had a fortunate draw to reach the Sweet 16, first facing a Creighton squad that has fallen off in recent years, and then UMBC, a 16-seed that shocked the nation with a win over Virginia in the opening round. Now things get tough on the Wildcats as they face John Calipari's Kentucky squad, which has seemingly been flying under the radar to this point, but looks well-positioned to continue its run toward the Final Four. As usual, the Wildcats of Kentucky are a young team, loaded with blue chip NBA prospects. But unlike recent Kentucky teams, this one seems to play with a bit more of an edge, and with a lot more grit. Kansas State isn't an 'easy out' by any means, but I'm confident we'll see UK put its stamp on this game in the second half and ultimately pull away for a comfortable victory. Take Kentucky (10*). |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -2.5 | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Texas A&M at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the short number with the Wolverines as they aim to dispose of the Aggies and continue on a favorable path toward the Final Four. Things have really opened up for Michigan in the West Region with the top two seeds going down (including number two UNC falling at the hands of Texas A&M). I wasn't particularly high on A&M at the start of this tournament, fading the Aggies against Providence in the opening round. Of course, that didn't work out well but I'm not going to stray from my original thinking here. I believe that Michigan is a team built for tournament success and I'm confident this is the year they get back to the Final Four. There's little doubt this will be a tightly-contested affair, but it's the Wolverines that I expect to make the clutch plays down the stretch. I had the Aggies as an over-seeded squad last week and they find themselves overmatched on Thursday. Take Michigan (10*). |
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03-22-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Nevada -1 | Top | 69-68 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Nevada over Loyola-Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Loyola-Chicago has taken its rightful place as this year's Cinderella team, advancing to the Sweet 16 to face another upstart in Nevada on Thursday night. I simply feel that the Wolf Pack are the superior team in this matchup and having cashed with them in their stunning come-from-behind win over Cincinnati last Sunday, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again here. I certainly don't believe we're going to see Nevada give the Ramblers as much open floor space as Loyola's first two opponents in this tournament did. The Wolf Pack are a character team that has certainly taken their cue from their head coach, whose spirited post-game antics have gained national attention. Loyola will get plenty of support from casual bettors here, but I believe it will be Nevada that keeps on dancing at the end of the night on Thursday. Take Nevada (10*). |
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03-18-18 | Nevada +8 v. Cincinnati | Top | 75-73 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Nevada plus the points over Cincinnati at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Wolf Pack as they take on two-seed Cincinnati on Sunday evening. The Wolf Pack didn't bring their 'A' game against Texas on Friday but still managed to rally from a 14-point deficit to ultimately prevail in overtime. It was a gutsy win that I believe will have some carry-over effect into Sunday's matchup with the Bearcats. Cincinnati has cruised over the last month or so, last losing a game against Wichita State on February 18th. The Bearcats really weren't challenged by Georgia State in the opening round but they will be here. The oddsmakers are giving us a generous helping of points with the Wolf Pack, and I'll gladly take it in a game that could go either way. Take Nevada (10*). |
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03-18-18 | Texas A&M v. North Carolina -6 | 86-65 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Texas A&M at 5:15 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark fading the Aggies on Friday as they managed to get past Providence in a tightly-contested affair. I don't believe they'll be so fortunate on Sunday, however, as they get a tough draw against North Carolina. The Tar Heels are a legitimate threat to cut down the nets in April but aren't getting a ton of love from the betting marketplace, as evidenced by the relatively short line we're dealing with here. I simply feel that UNC will be able to run A&M out of the gym on Sunday night, as their athleticism proves too much in this particular matchup. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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03-17-18 | Florida +2 v. Texas Tech | 66-69 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida plus the points over Texas Tech at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. I didn't expect Florida to get past St. Bonaventure in the opening round of this tournament but now that the Gators have accomplished that, I believe they have a favorable path to advance to the Sweet 16. We cashed a ticket fading Texas Tech in the opening round as the Red Raiders had some trouble putting away Stephen F. Austin. Things certainly won't get any easier against an athletic Gators squad that had little trouble brushing aside the Bonnies. I simply feel that Texas Tech is an over-seeded squad in this tournament and the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Take Florida (10*). |
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03-17-18 | Alabama +11 v. Villanova | 58-81 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Alabama plus the points over Villanova at 12:10 pm et on Saturday. Simply too many points being given to the Crimson Tide in this one. Yes, Villanova looked good in its opening round blowout victory. And yes, the Wildcats are an extremely popular pick to cut down the nets in April. But Alabama is no pushover, and after a strong showing in the opening round, I look for the Crimson Tide to give the Wildcats all they can handle on Saturday afternoon. I never like these early start times for big favorites. I won't be surprised if the Wildcats get off to a sleepy start which may be all Alabama needs to stick around and make things difficult on the number one seed. Take Alabama (10*). |
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03-16-18 | Murray State +10.5 v. West Virginia | 68-85 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Murray State plus the points over West Virginia at 4 pm et on Friday. The Mountaineers have become accustomed to getting involved in tight opening round battles against presumably weaker opponents in recent years in this tournament and I’m expecting a similar story to unfold against Murray State on Friday. Of course, the Racers are no strangers to this tournament, making their 15th appearance all-time. They enter this tournament having won 13 games in a row. Note that Murray State has won its last two opening round games, albeit back in 2010 and 2012. West Virginia is a good team without question, having already defeated number one overall seed Virginia this season. The Mountaineers are capable of going on a deep tournament run but I’m just not convinced they’ll get off easy on opening weekend. We’re being given a generous helping of points with a team that not only feels it can compete, but can stage the upset on Friday afternoon. Take Murray State (10*). |
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03-16-18 | Butler -1.5 v. Arkansas | 79-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Butler minus the points over Arkansas at 3:10 pm et on Friday. This looks like a case of a couple of mis-seeded teams if you believe the betting marketplace. Butler finds itself as the favorite at the time of posting, despite the fact that it comes in as the lower-ranked squad in this matchup. And rightfully so, in my opinion. I don’t think we’ll see the Bulldogs get rattled by the Razorbacks relentless defensive pressure. They’re battle-tested coming out of the Big East – one of six teams from the conference to reach the tournament, including two number one seeds. I’m not as high on Arkansas, or the SEC for that matter, noting that the Razorbacks fell in the SEC Tournament semi-finals against Tennessee. While most expect this to be a high-scoring affair, I actually expect to see the Bulldogs frustrate the Hogs offense throughout. Take Butler (10*). |
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03-16-18 | Providence +2.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -114 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
Opening Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Providence plus the points over Texas A&M at 12:15 pm et on Friday. Providence is in the NCAA Tournament for the fifth straight year and I look for the Friars to make the most of their appearance. Credit the Friars for their Big East Tournament run last week, upsetting a number one seed in this tournament, Xavier before falling to another top seed, Villanova, in the final. I like the way Providence has battled all season long and believe this is a team capable of turning some heads in this tourney. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is back in the tournament after missing out last year and I simply feel the Aggies inconsistency over the course of the season will resurface on Friday afternoon. Note that the Aggies are just 11-14 SU all-time in the NCAA Tournament. While that has little bearing on the outcome of Friday’s contest, let’s consider the fact that this team started the campaign with a stellar 11-1 mark before going 9-11 the rest of the way. They probably deserved a better fate in the SEC Tournament as they fell to Alabama on a last second basket but a loss is a loss and I don’t believe they carry a great deal of positive momentum in this matchup. Take Providence (10*). |
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03-15-18 | St Bonaventure +5.5 v. Florida | 62-77 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Bonaventure plus the points over Florida at 9:55 pm et on Thursday. The Bonnies needed to outlast UCLA in a play-in game on Tuesday night just to get into the NCAA Tournament but now that they’re here, I look for them to make a little noise. St. Bonaventure draws a favorable matchup, in my opinion, against Florida. The Gators exited the SEC Tournament with a whimper, falling 80-72 against Arkansas in their first game. That ended a three-game winning streak which came on the heels of a three-game skid. In other words, the Gators have been inconsistent in recent weeks, not the way you want to enter the Big Dance, certainly not against an capable opponent like St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies ran into a red hot shooting Davidson suqad in the A-10 Tournament semi-final, as the Wildcats rode 16 made three-pointers to victory. That marked the Bonnies first loss since January 19th. The win over UCLA was obviously just what the doctor ordered and now I’m confident St. Bonaventure can go on a bit of a run. Florida reached the Elite Eight a year ago but I don’t believe it’s the Gators time in 2018. Take St. Bonaventure (10*). |
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03-15-18 | Stephen F Austin +11.5 v. Texas Tech | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 32 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stephen F. Austin plus the points over Texas Tech at 7:25 pm et on Thursday. The Red Raiders are laying an awful lot of points for a program that hasn’t advanced past the opening round of the NCAA Tournament since reaching the Sweet 16 in 2005. Playing this game in Dallas will certainly help the Red Raiders cause, but the same goes for SFA. The Lumberjacks haven’t lost to an opponent other than Lamar since falling by a 100-92 score at Central Arkansas back on January 24th. I like the way the Lumberjacks have been able to win games with their offense and their defense. They scored a combined 164 points in two Southland Conference Tournament wins before allowing only 55 in a slugfest win over Southeast Louisiana in the championship game. Texas Tech enters having lost five of its last seven games overall, topping 74 points only once over that stretch. Look for a closer game than most are expecting on Thursday evening in Dallas. Take Stephen F. Austin (10*). |
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03-15-18 | South Dakota State +8 v. Ohio State | 73-81 | Push | 0 | 29 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Dakota State plus the points over Ohio State at 4 pm et on Thursday. South Dakota State certainly has no shortage of motivation as it enters this tournament for the fifth time in the last seven years, still having not managed to record a single victory. It seems like every year the Jackrabbits are a popular upset pick in the opening round and this March is no different. With that being said, I do expect them to hang with an overrated Buckeyes squad on Thursday afternoon. Ohio State wasn’t expected to contend for a Big Ten title in 2018 but managed to finish tied for second in the conference despite limping to the finish line. Unlike past editions of the Jackrabbits, I don’t think there’s a real intimidation factor at play this year. South Dakota State truly believes it can hang with Ohio State and that’s really half the battle when it comes to the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament. We’re being given a generous cushion in a game that I believe could go either way on Thursday afternoon. Take South Dakota State (10*). |
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03-15-18 | Loyola-Chicago +2 v. Miami-FL | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 28 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Loyola-Chicago plus the points over Miami at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers are certainly a popular upset pick in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament but that doesn’t mean they’re a bad pick. I believe Miami is ripe for an upset, keeping in mind this is a team that started the season with a perfect 10-0 record before going just 12-9 the rest of the way. The Hurricanes were not surprisingly outclassed by North Carolina in the ACC Tournament last week, bringing an end to a four-game winning streak. While I do feel the ‘Canes have a lot going for them, they draw a tough opponent in the Ramblers. Loyola-Chicago is fresh off a Missouri Valley Conference Tournament title and hasn’t lost a game since January 31st at Bradley. While the Ramblers were solid offensively throughout the regular season, they had to rely on some hard-nosed defense to run the table in the MVC Tourney, allowing 50, 54 and 49 points in three victories. They’ll face a tougher test here against a Miami squad that believes it can go on a run, but I look for the Ramblers to prevail. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
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03-15-18 | Wright State +12.5 v. Tennessee | 47-73 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wright State plus the points over Tennessee at 12:40 pm et on Thursday. I’ll grab the points with Wright State in an underdog role against Tennessee as the NCAA Tournament tips off on Thursday afternoon. Since starting the season with three consecutive losses, Wright State has gone on a 25-6 tear, culminating with a Horizon League Tournament championship. The fact that the Raiders went 0-2 against tournament-bound opponents during the regular season has many bettors hesitating to back them here, but I’m confident they can give the upstart Vols a considerable run on Thursday. Tennessee reached the SEC Tournament championship game last weekend, falling by five points to Kentucky. Head coach Rick Barnes has admitted that a grueling SEC schedule has been tough on the Vols this season and while many see them as being battle-tested, I’m not sure how much they have left in the tank entering this tournament. Look for the Raiders to stay within arm’s reach on Thursday afternoon. Take Wright State (10*). |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 154 | Top | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and North Carolina at 9:20 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in the national championship game on Monday night. Gonzaga suffered a lapse in the second half against South Carolina on Saturday but still managed to survive and advance to this showdown with North Carolina. The Bulldogs are an excellent defensive team, even if they didn't show it for a stretch in the second half against the Gamecocks. Gonzaga has held the opposition to just 36.5% shooting this season. They've routinely kept opponents under 60 points, including in three out of five contests in this tournament. The Tar Heels are known for their offensive prowess, but they can play a little defense as well, and I believe they match up well with the Bulldogs in that regard. Note that UNC held a terrific Oregon squad to just under 37% shooting in Saturday's semi-final matchup. We're dealing with a relatively high total here, due in large part to the fact that both Final Four matchups played 'over' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina -5 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
NCAA Final Four Game of the Year. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Oregon at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Tar Heels as they try to punch their ticket to the championship game on Saturday night. We cashed a big ticket with Oregon last week as it pulled off a stunning upset of number one seeded Kansas. Here, they'll take aim at another top seed, but I don't believe they'll be as fortunate. North Carolina, of course, got to this point last year. In fact, the Tar Heels came within a buzzer beater of winning the national championship. Roy Williams' squad has had no shortage of motivation in this tournament and save for a near disaster against Arkansas in the second round, the Tar Heels have looked like arguably the most dominant team in the field. Yes, Oregon is capable of giving UNC a run on Saturday night, but I believe this is the game where depth becomes an issue. Despite being firmly planted on every bettor's radar, UNC has still managed to go a profitable 19-15-3 ATS this season. It builds on that record here. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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03-26-17 | South Carolina v. Florida -3 | 77-70 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida minus the points over South Carolina at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. These two SEC foes split two regular season meetings with the home team winning on each occasion. Here, I believe the oddsmakers have got it right installing the Gators as the favorite, and I look for them to ultimately pull away in the second half and advance to the Final Four. South Carolina has enjoyed a tremendous run to get here but really wasn't challenged in Friday's rout of Baylor. I expect the Gamecocks to face a lot more resistance against the Gators. After cruising to wins in the first two rounds, Florida faced a serious test against Wisconsin on Friday night, needing overtime to advance. I believe the Gators will be better for it, and here we'll see them once again be the team that makes all of the key shots down the stretch. Take Florida (10*). |
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03-25-17 | Oregon +7 v. Kansas | Top | 74-60 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon plus the points over Kansas at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with Oregon in this matchup - a game I believe the Ducks are capable of winning outright. Keep in mind, we cashed a 10* ticket with Kansas in its rout of Purdue on Friday night. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday, however. The Ducks have been a better bet than the Jayhawks all season, significantly better in fact. Despite posting a staggering 32-5 SU record, the Ducks have still been undervalued, going 20-15-1 ATS in lined contests. By contrast, the Jayhawks check in sporting a 14-18-1 ATS mark. Don't discount the challenges Coach Altman's Ducks have faced in this tournament so far. Rhode Island gave them all they could handle in the Round of 32 and then they ran into a red hot Michigan squad in the Sweet 16 on Friday. Oregon is battle-tested and should take Kansas right down to the wire on Saturday night. Take Oregon (10*). |
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03-24-17 | South Carolina v. Baylor -3.5 | 70-50 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baylor minus the points over South Carolina on Friday. Credit Baylor for persevering when all seemed to be going wrong against USC last Sunday night. The Bears came up big down the stretch in that one and now draw a favorable matchup against South Carolina in the Sweet 16. Few saw the Gamecocks upset win over the Duke Blue Devils coming, especially after an ugly first half that saw South Carolina struggle to shoot north of 20% from the field. Duke essentially imploded in the second half of that game, something I don’t expect to see Baylor do on Friday night. The Bears were an overlooked team for the most part entering this tournament but now they suddenly have a reasonable path to the Final Four. I look for them to take full advantage as they employ a far more physical style than we saw Duke put forth against a beatable South Carolina squad. Take Baylor (10*). |
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03-24-17 | Butler v. North Carolina -7 | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Butler at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Tar Heels survived a serious scare against Arkansas in the second round of the tournament last Sunday and I believe they’ll be better for it moving forward. After jumping ahead big early, UNC had a tough time sustaining the pressure on the Razorbacks and ultimately coughed up the lead entirely in the second half. Were it not for a cold spell from the Hogs down the stretch the Tar Heels could have easily been ousted from the tournament. With that being said, they’re a better team than they showed as far as I’m concerned. Instead of panicking in the final minutes, we saw UNC toughen up defensively and do an excellent job on the glass. Now I believe the Tar Heels draw a favorable Sweet 16 matchup against a Butler squad that essentially cruised through the first two rounds. It seemed as though the Bulldogs were really fired up for last Saturday’s matchup with Middle Tennessee State. I’m just not sure they can get back up to the same level emotionally following a break, and they’ll obviously be facing a much tougher opponent. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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03-24-17 | Butler v. North Carolina OVER 153 | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Butler and North Carolina on Friday. With Butler coming off two reasonably low-scoring games and North Carolina checking in after a struggle against Arkansas, I believe we’re dealing with a nice situation to back the ‘over’ as the two teams square off on Friday night. The Bulldogs regularly scored north of 80 points this season but only managed to get into the 70s in wins over Winthrop and Middle Tennessee State. Butler was able to overwhelm both of those opponents defensively but will be hard-pressed to do the same against a highly-motivated Tar Heels squad. In order to win this game, the Bulldogs know they’re going to have to score, and I believe they can do that against a sometimes vulnerable UNC defense. After busting loose in their opening matchup, the Tar Heels got off to a quick start but couldn’t sustain it against Arkansas last time out. North Carolina was very fortunate to come out on top in that game, despite some extremely sloppy play with the basketball in the second half. I look for a much sharper performance from the Tar Heels this time around as their offense once again gets in gear and helps this one ‘over’ the very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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03-23-17 | Purdue v. Kansas -5 | 66-98 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Purdue on Thursday. It’s tough to call Purdue a potential Cinderella team as a four-seed but they’ll likely earn that billing if they can get past number one seeded Kansas on Thursday night. I believe the Boilermakers will be in tough. Purdue has drawn two favorable matchups in this tournament so far, first against Vermont and then Iowa State. While I felt the Cyclones would give them trouble, that wasn’t the case as the Boilers rolled to victory. Here they take a big step up in class against a Kansas squad that seemed to really get rolling in the second half against Michigan State this past Sunday. I believe the relatively early tournament matchup against the Spartans serves the Jayhawks well moving forward. While Kansas has plenty of veteran leadership, it is still a fairly young team as a whole, as we saw freshman Josh Jackson take on a prominent role in that win over Sparty. With three full days to prepare for Purdue, I believe the Jayhawks advantages will be pronounced in this one. We’re dealing with a relatively short number due to seeding and that certainly plays to our advantage here. Take Kansas (10*). |
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03-23-17 | West Virginia v. Gonzaga -3 | 58-61 | Push | 0 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over West Virginia at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. Despite the fact that Gonzaga is a number one seed, it doesn't seem that there are a lot of Bulldog believers out there. Here, I simply feel that the Mountaineers will be outmatched, noting that we actually won with West Virginia in its second round victory over Notre Dame. The Mountaineers are one of the worst bets remaining in the tournament, having gone 14-16-1 ATS this season. Despite the fact that the Zags have lost only one game SU all season, they've still proven to be undervalued in the betting marketplace, going 22-9-1 ATS in lined contests. With that being said, the Bulldogs have gone 0-2 ATS in this tournament so far, and that helps to keep the line in check here. I'm willing to lay the short number. Take Gonzaga (10*). |
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03-23-17 | Michigan v. Oregon UNDER 148 | Top | 68-69 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
NCAA Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan and Oregon at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Thursday's first Sweet 16 matchup featuring the Wolverines and Ducks. The last meeting in this series was less than three years ago and the result was a 70-63 Michigan win. Most are expecting a much higher-scoring affair this time around, but I'm not so sure. The Wolverines offense has certainly been in top form through the first two games of this tournament. Save for a shaky start against Louisville, Michigan has shot well. However, a change of venue and a bit of a layoff, not to mention facing a good defensive team in the Ducks (they hold the opposition to 40.8% shooting on the season) should see their returns diminish here. Oregon, like Michigan, thrived offensively through its first two games of the tournament, scoring 93 and 75 points. But it faced the likes of Iona and Rhode Island. I believe things get tougher here. Note that the Wolverines have held opponents to just north of 66 points per contest this season. Bettors are flocking to the 'over' in this one, but I believe we're dealing with an inflated number. Take the under (10*). |
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03-19-17 | South Carolina v. Duke OVER 141.5 | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between South Carolina and Duke at 8:40 pm et on Sunday. South Carolina entered this tournament on an 0-3-1 o/u run but in its opener the 'over' cashed with ease as the Gamecocks rolled to a 93-73 win over Marquette. I expect another relatively high-scoring affair on Sunday as they shift their attention to the Duke Blue Devils. Duke has seen the 'under' cash in back-to-back games following its 93-83 win over North Carolina in the ACC Tournament. I'm confident the Blue Devils can break through a South Carolina defense that has held the opposition to just north of 40% shooting this season. But I'm not sure the Blue Devils can hold the Gamecocks offense down, noting that Duke has allowed the opposition to shoot right around 46% from the field away from its home floor. I simply feel this total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-17 | Rhode Island v. Oregon -5 | 72-75 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Rhode Island at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with Rhode Island over Creighton while also cashing the 'over' in Oregon's opening round win over Iona. I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade the Rams as they draw the Ducks in the Round of 32 on Sunday. Let's face it, Rhode Island caught a break by facing an undermanned Creighton squad in its tournament opener. Of course, the Rams face another team missing a star player here as the Ducks lost Chris Boucher to injury. Oregon didn't look any worse for wear on Friday, however, and I believe it has enough to advance to the Sweet 16 with a win over Rhode Island. I like the way Jordan Bell has stepped up in Boucher's absence for the Ducks and look for him to play a prominent role once again on Sunday. Take Oregon (10*). |
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03-19-17 | Arkansas v. North Carolina -10 | 65-72 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Arkansas at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Tar Heels on Sunday. North Carolina faced no resistance in an opening round blowout win over Texas Southern. Obviously it will face a much tougher challenge against Arkansas on Sunday, but I believe it will be up to the challenge. The Razorbacks drew a favorable matchup in the opening round and disposed of Seton Hall. I just don't believe they'll be able to stay within arm's reach of the Tar Heels for 40 minutes on Sunday. Keep in mind, the last time they stepped up in class was in the SEC Tournament when they fell by 17 points. Expect a similar result here. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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03-18-17 | Iowa State +1 v. Purdue | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iowa State over Purdue at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. The Cyclones are flying well beneath the radar as we enter the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. I believe they're catching a favorable matchup against Purdue on Saturday night. Iowa State has been scoring at will and I'm confident it can overwhelm the Boilermakers in this contest. Purdue did a nice job fending off a game Vermont squad on Friday, scoring 80 points in the process. But I'm not convinced the Boilers can keep up that scoring pace on Saturday against the Cyclones. Both teams have been terrific against the spread this season. I simply feel the Cyclones are better suited to advance to the Sweet 16 in this tournament. Take Iowa State (10*). |
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03-18-17 | St. Mary's v. Arizona -4.5 | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over St. Mary's at 7:45 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the second seeded Wildcats on Saturday night. St. Mary's may have survived its opening round matchup with VCU, but as far as I'm concerned, that game was handed to the Gaels on a silver platter I'm expecting them to face a much tougher test here. Arizona rolled to a win over North Dakota in its opener, although we did cash a ticket ATS with UND in that one. Let's give the Wildcats credit for posting a winning ATS mark this season despite its 31-4 SU record. Generally, teams with gaudy records like that don't fare so well against the number. I believe the 'Cats are Final Four bound, but in order to get there they've got plenty of work in front of them. It starts with a convincing win over the Gaels on Saturday. Take Arizona (10*). |
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03-18-17 | Notre Dame v. West Virginia -2.5 | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 16 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on West Virginia minus the points over Notre Dame at 12:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Mountaineers in this matchup. I had WVU reaching the Elite Eight in my bracket and there's no reason to jump ship after a close call against Bucknell on Thursday. We actually cashed a ticket with the Bison in that one. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and lay the short number. Notre Dame has been a far better bet than West Virginia this season, but to put it simply, I'm not sure the Irish can score enough to keep pace on Saturday afternoon. The Mountaineers are a miserable 1-7-1 ATS over their last nine contests, but they're not overvalued this time around. Scoring 86 points in their opener gives them a shot of confidence here. Take West Virginia (10*). |
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03-17-17 | Northern Kentucky +20 v. Kentucky | 70-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northern Kentucky plus the points over Kentucky at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the points with Northern Kentucky in this 'David vs. Goliath' opening round matchup on Friday night. Let's face it, no one is giving the Norse a chance in this in-state showdown. And perhaps rightfully so. But I believe they're getting too many points in a game where the Wildcats may not bring their 'A' game. Kentucky essentially cruised to an SEC Tournament title last weekend. It's been a while since the Wildcats have been truly tested. Northern Kentucky is in this tournament for a reason, winding its way to a Horizon League title this season. Not only that, but the Norse went 20-9-1 ATS. Look for their three-point shooting to keep them in this game long enough to earn us the cover. Take Northern Kentucky (10*). |
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Sean Murphy NCAA-B Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-21-19 | Texas State v. Georgia State -2.5 | 69-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
12-20-19 | Lipscomb +11 v. Vermont | 63-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
12-19-19 | Southern Utah v. Long Beach State +1.5 | 84-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
12-19-19 | Texas State v. Georgia Southern -2 | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
12-18-19 | North Carolina +13 v. Gonzaga | 81-94 | Push | 0 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
12-18-19 | Canisius +9.5 v. Buffalo | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
12-06-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -8 | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia -1 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
04-06-19 | Auburn +6 v. Virginia | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
03-31-19 | Auburn v. Kentucky -4.5 | 77-71 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
03-30-19 | Purdue +4.5 v. Virginia | 75-80 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
03-29-19 | LSU v. Michigan State -6 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
03-28-19 | Oregon v. Virginia -8 | 49-53 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
03-24-19 | Oklahoma v. Virginia -10.5 | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
03-23-19 | Villanova +4 v. Purdue | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
03-22-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Kansas State -4.5 | Top | 70-64 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
03-22-19 | Iowa v. Cincinnati -4 | 79-72 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
03-21-19 | St. Mary's v. Villanova -4 | Top | 57-61 | Push | 0 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
03-21-19 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Gonzaga -27.5 | 49-87 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
03-21-19 | Minnesota v. Louisville -5 | 86-76 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
03-16-19 | Florida +3 v. Auburn | 62-65 | Push | 0 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
03-15-19 | Grambling State v. Prairie View A&M -3.5 | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
03-14-19 | UMKC v. Utah Valley -9 | Top | 64-71 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
03-14-19 | Delaware State v. North Carolina Central -11 | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
03-14-19 | Chicago State v. New Mexico State -26 | 49-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
03-13-19 | Houston Baptist v. Lamar -4 | Top | 79-81 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
03-09-19 | Western Illinois v. South Dakota State -15 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
03-02-19 | Belmont -13.5 v. SE Missouri State | Top | 84-66 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
02-23-19 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -10.5 | 46-85 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
02-18-19 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech +5 | 64-58 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 51 m | Show | |
02-16-19 | Florida State v. Georgia Tech +6 | Top | 69-47 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
02-10-19 | Ohio State v. Indiana -2.5 | 55-52 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
02-09-19 | Colorado v. USC -4.5 | 69-65 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
02-09-19 | Auburn v. LSU -2 | Top | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
02-07-19 | San Francisco +18 v. Gonzaga | Top | 62-92 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
02-06-19 | Georgetown v. Providence -3 | 76-67 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
02-05-19 | Florida State v. Syracuse -3 | 80-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
02-04-19 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma +2.5 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
02-03-19 | Stanford -5.5 v. California | 84-81 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
02-02-19 | Notre Dame +3 v. Boston College | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
01-29-19 | Ball State +12 v. Buffalo | Top | 59-83 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
01-28-19 | TCU v. Texas Tech -4.5 | 65-84 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
01-28-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -6 | Top | 77-47 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
01-26-19 | Evansville +3.5 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 74-81 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
01-26-19 | Alabama v. Baylor -3 | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
01-25-19 | Brown +7 v. Yale | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
01-24-19 | St. Mary's v. BYU +1.5 | Top | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
01-23-19 | Texas v. TCU -4 | Top | 61-65 | Push | 0 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
01-22-19 | Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech | 61-63 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
01-21-19 | Creighton v. Georgetown -1.5 | Top | 91-87 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
01-19-19 | Dayton v. St Bonaventure +3 | Top | 89-86 | Push | 0 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
01-18-19 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2 | 75-61 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
01-17-19 | Manhattan v. St. Peter's -6 | 58-56 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
01-16-19 | Butler -2 v. DePaul | 87-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
01-15-19 | Seton Hall v. Providence -1.5 | 63-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
01-14-19 | Wisconsin +4 v. Maryland | 60-64 | Push | 0 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
01-11-19 | Iona v. Niagara -1 | 90-95 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
01-09-19 | Arizona State v. California +10 | 80-66 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
01-08-19 | Manhattan v. Marist UNDER 123 | 63-78 | Loss | -122 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
01-07-19 | Niagara v. Fairfield -4 | 59-77 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
11-20-18 | Duquesne v. Notre Dame OVER 140 | 56-67 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
11-16-18 | Oakland +8 v. UNLV | 61-74 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova -6.5 | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
03-25-18 | Texas Tech v. Villanova -6.5 | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
03-23-18 | Texas Tech v. Purdue -1.5 | 78-65 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 42 m | Show | |
03-23-18 | West Virginia v. Villanova -4.5 | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
03-22-18 | Kansas State v. Kentucky -5 | 61-58 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -2.5 | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
03-22-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Nevada -1 | Top | 69-68 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
03-18-18 | Nevada +8 v. Cincinnati | Top | 75-73 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
03-18-18 | Texas A&M v. North Carolina -6 | 86-65 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
03-17-18 | Florida +2 v. Texas Tech | 66-69 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
03-17-18 | Alabama +11 v. Villanova | 58-81 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 25 m | Show | |
03-16-18 | Murray State +10.5 v. West Virginia | 68-85 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 7 m | Show | |
03-16-18 | Butler -1.5 v. Arkansas | 79-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
03-16-18 | Providence +2.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -114 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
03-15-18 | St Bonaventure +5.5 v. Florida | 62-77 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 8 m | Show | |
03-15-18 | Stephen F Austin +11.5 v. Texas Tech | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 32 h 18 m | Show | |
03-15-18 | South Dakota State +8 v. Ohio State | 73-81 | Push | 0 | 29 h 53 m | Show | |
03-15-18 | Loyola-Chicago +2 v. Miami-FL | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 28 h 4 m | Show | |
03-15-18 | Wright State +12.5 v. Tennessee | 47-73 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 154 | Top | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina -5 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
03-26-17 | South Carolina v. Florida -3 | 77-70 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
03-25-17 | Oregon +7 v. Kansas | Top | 74-60 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
03-24-17 | South Carolina v. Baylor -3.5 | 70-50 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
03-24-17 | Butler v. North Carolina -7 | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
03-24-17 | Butler v. North Carolina OVER 153 | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
03-23-17 | Purdue v. Kansas -5 | 66-98 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
03-23-17 | West Virginia v. Gonzaga -3 | 58-61 | Push | 0 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
03-23-17 | Michigan v. Oregon UNDER 148 | Top | 68-69 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
03-19-17 | South Carolina v. Duke OVER 141.5 | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
03-19-17 | Rhode Island v. Oregon -5 | 72-75 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
03-19-17 | Arkansas v. North Carolina -10 | 65-72 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
03-18-17 | Iowa State +1 v. Purdue | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show | |
03-18-17 | St. Mary's v. Arizona -4.5 | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
03-18-17 | Notre Dame v. West Virginia -2.5 | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 16 h 0 m | Show | |
03-17-17 | Northern Kentucky +20 v. Kentucky | 70-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |