Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Duke plus the points over Clemson at 8 pm et on Monday. There's a lot of hype around Dabo Swinney's Clemson Tigers entering the 2023 campaign - of course, what else is new. After a brief lull (by Clemson standards anyway) they're expected back in the National Title picture led by a loaded defense that has NFL-caliber talent at all three levels. I will say that a number of the players they're counting on to lead that defense will need to make a leap forward after perhaps not quite living up to potential thus far. The same goes for the offense. Duke will field arguably its best team in years - on both sides of the football. There's returning talent and experience everywhere and I believe the potential is there for the Blue Devils to build off of last year's strong finish that included a rout of UCF in the Military Bowl. Most are high on Duke QB Riley Leonard and while he's coming off a big 2022 campaign that saw him lead the Blue Devils in passing and rushing, I think there's still a lot of room for him to grow, especially as a passer, in 2023. The common line of thinking here is that Duke simply doesn't have the same level of talent across the board to match up with Clemson and that Dabo Swinney will coach circles around Mike Elko. The Tigers have certainly owned this series, taking five straight meetings going all the way back to 2005, outscoring the Blue Devils by 24 points or more in all five of those contests. It's been five years since their last matchup though and I'm confident Duke has narrowed the gap considerably. Take Duke (10*). |
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09-02-23 | Old Dominion v. Virginia Tech -15.5 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia Tech minus the points over Old Dominion at 8 pm et on Saturday. Opening night in Blacksburg is always special - you could argue any football night in Blacksburg is special - but this year's home opener takes on added importance after the Hokies were upset by Old Dominion in Week 1 last season. The Monarchs stole that game by a 20-17 score and I say 'stole' because their offense didn't even reach the end zone until the final minute of the fourth quarter. While Old Dominion won't roll over in this rematch, it is certainly going to be in tough to open the campaign after being ravaged by the transfer portal. Gone are two of the Monarchs key pieces from last year's upset win - QB Hayden Wolff and WR Ali Jennings (the Richmond native bolted to Virginia Tech). Defensively, Old Dominion retains the services of tackling-machine LB Jason Henderson but little else, particularly up front. Virginia Tech will once again pin its hopes on QB Grant Wells. It's essentially put up or shut up time for the veteran signal-caller as the Hokies have surrounded him with a ton of talent at the wide receiver position. Wells has always had the arm but has a tendency to turn the football over. The good news here is I expect Virginia Tech to jump ahead early and take the air out of the football the rest of the way. ODU was one of the worst time of possession teams in the entire country last year and won't get any better with so many key pieces gone. Take Virginia Tech (10*). |
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09-02-23 | Twins v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
A.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Minnesota at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Twins easily disposed of the Rangers by a 5-1 score last night. Max Scherzer was still able to eat six innings for Texas in the loss and the Rangers didn't use any of their best relief arms. That's a positive as it's been 'feast-or-famine' for the Texas bullpen this season, which is why I'm more comfortable backing it at a more reasonable price on the run-line on Saturday. The Rangers have either been able to nail down games, or blow them completely, their really hasn't been much middle ground. But I digress. The real story here is that Dallas Keuchel earned himself another turn in the Twins starting rotation thanks to a terrific performance against the Pirates last time out (6 1/3 innings with no earned runs allowed). That start came at home, where he's been just fine in two outings this season. The road has been another story entirely. Going back to last season, Keuchel has allowed 6, 7, 7, 6, 6, 2 and 8 earned runs in seven road starts. He lasted beyond the fifth inning in only one of those outings. With the Rangers feasting on left-handed starting pitching, to the tune of 6.1 runs per game this season, they're in line for a breakout performance at the plate following a brief slump. Jordan Montgomery will get the start for the Rangers. He's been sharp since coming over in a trade with the Cardinals. He did labor through his most recent outing against these same Twins but still gave up just three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. I mentioned the inconsistent nature of the Rangers bullpen this season but it's not as if the Twins relief corps has been lights out either. They check in having closed out 15 saves while blowing 12 on the road this season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-25-23 | Lions +5 v. Panthers | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Carolina at 8 pm et on Friday. The Lions were manhandled 25-7 at home against the Jaguars last week, spoiling the gains from the previous week when they rallied for a victory over the Giants. I look for Dan Campbell's squad to bounce back in Friday's preseason finale as they head to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Carolina is expected to give its starters a run in this game and that includes rookie quarterback Bryce Young. His results have been mixed in the early going. Carolina has yet to secure a win this preseason after getting shut out by the Jets in Week 1 and rallying but falling short in a 21-19 loss to the Giants last week. There's just nothing in this matchup that leads me to believe the Panthers are deserving of laying more than a field goal. While we've seen positive flashes from Carolina's second and third-string quarterbacks in Matt Corral and Jake Luton, we've also seen plenty of mistakes. After such a poor showing last week, I expect the Lions defense to take a step forward here, certainly as they look to rise to the occasion against the highly-touted rookie QB Young in the early going. Take Detroit (10*). |
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08-21-23 | Ravens -1 v. Commanders | 28-29 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Washington at 8 pm et on Monday. The Commanders are coming off a 17-15 win over the Browns last week and that's worth noting as they haven't won consecutive preseason contests since way back in 2017. The Ravens run of preseason success over the last eight years has been well-documented. I expect their run to last at least one more game, despite what the line movement seems to be indicating here. That line movement has a lot to do with an injury to Ravens backup QB Tyler Huntley. He tweaked his hamstring in last week's game and isn't expected to play on Monday. That still leaves a couple of experienced preseason quarterbacks in Josh Johnson and Anthony Brown to run the Ravens offense. The Commanders named Sam Howell their Week 1 starter at QB last week and while he is likely to play in this game, I'm not sure we'll see a lot of him, noting that the starters got plenty of run during joint practices between these two teams over the course of the week. Backup Jacoby Brissett is locked-in to the QB2 spot while Jake Fromm will likely get mop-up duty once again on Monday. There's a lot to like when it comes to the Ravens preseason approach. Their lone preseason winning streak is no fluke and you can be sure this year's edition doesn't want to be the one to spoil the exceptional run. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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08-20-23 | Saints -3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. While this will technically be the Chargers first home game of the preseason, they did play here last week as they delivered a 34-17 win over the Rams. That win had more to do with the Rams lacking depth than anything else (they were also trounced by the Raiders last night). New Orleans is coming off a wild 26-24 victory over Kansas City. I like the Saints quarterback rotation with Jameis Winston and rookie Jake Haener once again expected to handle the bulk of the snaps on Sunday. Haener had a shaky first couple of possessions but did end up settling in and orchestrating a 76-yard touchdown drive later on. The Chargers starters are unlikely see much (if any) playing time on Sunday after these two teams took part in joint practices this week. They didn't show much interest in turning rookie QB Max Duggan loose in the second half last Sunday as he attempted only three passes (that was largely game-script related but still worth noting). I don't anticipate Brandon Staley opening up the Chargers playbook too wide in this contest either as his number one goal this preseason seems to be figuring out who will win the backup running back job. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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08-19-23 | Patriots +3 v. Packers | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NFLX Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Green Bay at 8 pm et on Saturday. While Patriots head coach Bill Bellichick isn't exactly known for his preseason success I do think last week's ugly showing at home against the Texans mattered. Here, the Pats will head back to the field following a couple of days of joint practices with the Packers and by all accounts New England took it to Green Bay in those sessions - particularly on offense. It's worth noting that the Pats check in off a loss last week as they haven't dropped consecutive preseason games (in the same year) since way back in 2017. The Packers are 'fat and happy' off a 36-19 dismantling of the Bengals, on the road no less, last week. That result was more about the Bengals sloppy play than it was the Packers sharpness. Here, we're once again likely to see plenty of Penn State alum Sean Clifford under center for the Packers. The Patriots defense was actually flying around against the Texans last week but didn't end up with much to show for it. I expect them to feast on the Packers depth-shy offense here. Take New England (10*). |
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08-19-23 | Montreal v. Ottawa +1.5 | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Montreal at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Alouettes have won consecutive meetings in this series but haven't notched three straight victories over the RedBlacks since 2021. Here, they're in a tough spot noting they've gone a woeful 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games following consecutive ATS victories as a favorite, as is the case here. Montreal will get QB Cody Fajardo back on the field this week but this is an offense that is predicated on running the football effectively. Note that Ottawa has been stout against the run this season, especially by CFL standards, allowing just 3.6 yards per rush. The previous two times the RedBlacks played at home off a loss this season they delivered a 26-7 win over Edmonton and a 31-28 victory over Winnipeg. Take Ottawa (8*). |
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08-17-23 | Browns v. Eagles -3.5 | 18-18 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Cleveland at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Eagles fell by a 20-19 score, blowing a second half lead last week in Baltimore. I look for them to bounce back here as they host the Browns following a couple days of joint practices. Things got a little testy during those practices, with some Eagles defenders apparently taking 'cheap shots' at Browns QB Deshaun Watson. That was 'much ado about nothing' according to most reports. None of the starters are expected to take the field for the Browns on Thursday, nor do I expect to see many of the Eagles front-line players in prominent roles. I did feel that Philadelphia's loss against the Ravens was a little misleading. The Eagles moved the football with ease in the early stages of that contest - in fact, each of their five first half drives ended up in Ravens territory with three resulted in scores. QB Tanner McKee completed only 10-of-20 pass attempts but flashed at times and likely earned additional playing time this week. While the Eagles didn't play the majority of their regular starters in that game, they did give plenty of veterans a run and I would expect more of the same here. For the Browns, rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has all but earned a roster spot after consecutive impressive performances to open the preseason. He's expected to start and play the entire first half on Thursday. I do think this will be the toughest test he has faced so far as the Eagles defense was humming in last week's contest in Baltimore (they held Baltimore to fewer than 10 yards on three of five first half drives and their backups produced a pick-six in the second half). Apart from DTR, Browns backups at the skill positions on offense haven't shown a ton of upside through two preseason contests. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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08-11-23 | Saskatchewan +5.5 v. Montreal | Top | 12-41 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Saskatchewan plus the points over Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. No one wanted any part of Saskatchewan last week at home against Ottawa after it had lost three games in a row including a 31-13 beatdown against Toronto in its Touchdown Atlantic game. The Roughriders didn't turn in a perfect performance but they did snap their skid with a 26-24 win. Here, I like their chances of staging the upset as they head on the road to face the upstart Alouettes on Friday. Montreal has posted back-to-back win (and covers) against the Stampeders and Tiger-Cats. Note that the Als are a long-term 37-63 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 1.6 points in that situation. The Riders are coming off somewhat of an outlier performance as they didn't force a single turnover against the RedBlacks. They were fortunate to pull out that win despite losing the turnover battle 3-0. The last time they failed to turn their opponent over even once they proceeded to force three in their next game - a 29-26 road win over Calgary back in Week 3. The Als are dealing with injury concerns on offense with both QB Cody Fajardo and RB William Stanback limited in practice this week but expected to suit up. Take Saskatchewan (10*). |
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08-11-23 | Falcons -2 v. Dolphins | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Friday. All indications are that the Dolphins offense and more specifically their offensive line has struggled mightily in camp and during joint practices with the Falcons this week. Now Miami is also dealing with a cluster of injuries at the skill positions on offense. Even though guys like Jaylen Waddle and Jeff Wilson Jr. weren't going to see much playing time, if any at all, in this game anyway, it's likely that this is a contest where the Fins want to effectively shorten proceedings and come out of it as healthy as possible. The needle is pointed up for the Falcons as they look to fine-tune a run-heavy offensive attack after making positive strides last year. Their preseason quarterback rotation will include Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke and Logan Woodside with the latter having gotten a year under his belt in this system in 2022. For Miami we're likely to see plenty of Skylar Thompson and Mike White under center. With a swinging-door offensive line I'm anticipating a rather vanilla offensive gameplan from it in Friday's opener. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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08-05-23 | Montreal v. Hamilton +3 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over Montreal at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Tiger-Cats bounced back with a win in Ottawa last week, as did the Alouettes as they got past Calgary by a touchdown. Here, I look for Hamilton to get its revenge for an earlier 38-12 beatdown at home against the Als earlier this season. The Ti-Cats defense stepped up as expected in a tough road environment last week and I’m confident they can do so again with Montreal dealing with a cluster of injuries on the offensive side of the football. I haven’t been all that high on Als QB Cody Fajardo and certainly not away from home with a depleted supporting cast. On the flip side, the Ti-Cats will be without QB Bo Levi Mitchell after he excelled last week. The good news is they’re accustomed to playing without him. A dialed-back offensive gameplan may actually serve them well against a middling Als defense. While I can understand the logic behind Montreal being favored in this spot that doesn’t mean I agree with it. Take Hamilton (8*). |
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08-05-23 | Nationals v. Reds -1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati -1.5 runs over Washington at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Reds blew a late 3-1 lead and ended up dropping a 6-3 decision in extra innings last night. I look for them to bounce back behind impressive rookie Andrew Abbott on Saturday afternoon. Abbott did struggle in his most recent outing but prior to that had held his last three opponents to just two earned runs in 20 innings of work. On the season he owns a 3.90 FIP and 1.03 WHIP. His counterpart on Saturday will be Joan Adon. He's made just two big league appearances this season and they haven't gone well as he has allowed three earned runs on two home runs in only five innings of work. In 64 2/3 innings with Washington last year he logged a 5.11 FIP and 1.78 WHIP. While the Nationals bullpen has pitched better lately and certainly in last night's game, they entered this series sporting a lofty 6.23 ERA and 1.59 WHIP on the road this season. Take Cincinnati -1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-04-23 | Toronto v. Calgary +8.5 | Top | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Toronto at 9 pm et on Friday. The Argonauts remain undefeated at 6-0 SU and ATS on the season while the Stampeders have been a major disappointment going 2-5 SU and ATS. So it might be a bit perplexing but Calgary could very well be happy to see Toronto on Friday. The Stamps are an incredible 15-2 in the last 17 meetings in this series and haven't lost a game by more than six points against the Argos since way back in 2012. Also note that while things haven't gone well for Calgary so far this season it can take solace in the fact that it is on a long-term 56-33 ATS run in the month of August. It also checks in 13-4 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.0 points in that situation. The Argos are currently dealing with a cluster of injuries on their offensive line. Despite winning 31-13 against Saskatchewan last week, Toronto completed just 13-of-21 passes for 122 yards. Meanwhile, Calgary dropped a 25-18 decision in Montreal last Sunday but limited the Alouettes to 16-of-29 passing for 158 yards. Take Calgary (10*). |
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08-04-23 | Nationals v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati -1.5 runs over Washington at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Reds got their series in Chicago off to a fine start but proceeded to drop the next three games with none of those contests being particularly close. I do like their chances of bouncing back as they return home to host the Nationals on Friday. Washington is admittedly playing well right now and probably would have liked to have gotten right back on the field yesterday but had an off day instead. The starting pitching matchup favors Cincinnati here as it sends a steadily-improving Graham Ashcraft to the hill against Pat Corbin of the Nationals. Ashcraft has been pitching well, holding opponents to two earned runs or less in six straight starts. He owns a 2.08 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over his last three outings. Pat Corbin on the other hand has struggled, allowing 12 earned runs over his last 17 1/3 innings of work, covering a span of three starts. He's seen his FIP rise to 4.99 and his WHIP to 1.53. While the Nationals bullpen has pitched better than that of the Reds lately, there's no question Cincinnati's relief corps has been better this season, particularly at home where it has recorded a collective 3.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Take Cincinnati -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-28-23 | Hamilton +2 v. Ottawa | 16-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The RedBlacks have reeled off consecutive wins in thrilling fashion with both of those victories coming in overtime against the Blue Bombers and Stampeders. Here, I look for Ottawa's run of success to come to an end against the division rival Tiger-Cats, however. A big part of the RedBlacks recent success has been QB Dustin Crum's performance on the ground. The good news for the Ti-Cats is that they've already seen him as he came on in relief back on July 8th - a game Hamilton held on to win by a 21-13 score. You would have to go all the way back to November of 2018 to find the last time Ottawa defeated Hamilton. Tonight, the Ti-Cats will finally welcome back prized offseason acquisition QB Bo Levi Mitchell after he suffered an injury in their season-opener. Noting that the RedBlacks are a long-term 4-13 ATS when playing at home after winning two of their last three games, outscored by an average margin of 5.6 points in that situation, we'll back the visitors here. Take Hamilton (8*). |
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07-26-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Red Sox took the opener of this brief two-game set in lopsided fashion last night. I look for the Braves to answer back on Wednesday. Spencer Strider will take the ball for Atlanta. He was cruising before giving up a pair of home runs (and four runs) in the seventh inning against Arizona last time out. The Braves still ended up rallying from a 4-1 deficit to win 7-5 on that day. While Strider's last two starts haven't been flawless by any means, he does check in having lasted at least six innings in six consecutive outings, striking out nine or more batters in all six of those contests. He has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, logging a 2.88 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. Here, he'll have the advantage of facing the Red Sox for the first time in his career. Note that the bullpen behind Strider should be in good shape after the Braves kept most of their key relief arms idle in last night's blowout defeat. It's a much different story for the Red Sox relief corps as they entered last night's action having worked a collective 36 innings over the last seven games and dealt with another heavy workload on Tuesday with John Schreiber working in an 'opener' role before Nick Pivetta gave them five innings. On the season, Boston has converted only 10 saves while blowing six here at home. Brayan Bello will get the start for the Red Sox on Wednesday. Like Strider, he's been bitten by the long ball recently, giving up six home runs in his last three starts. On the season, Bello owns a 4.36 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. The Braves will actually be getting their second look at the right-hander this season. They mustered only two earned runs on six hits over six innings against him back in May, but it's not as if they were completely baffled, striking out only five times. The Red Sox own a slight 6-5 edge in this series going back to 2021 and it's worth noting that all 11 matchups over that stretch were decided by two runs or more. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-23-23 | Rockies v. Marlins -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami -1.5 runs over Colorado at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Rockies have taken the first two games in this series, adding to the Marlins woes as Miami has now dropped eight straight contests. I look for the Marlins to rebound on Sunday afternoon as they send one of the most underrated starters in baseball to the hill in Jesus Luzardo against Ty Blach of the Rockies. Luzardo didn't have his best stuff last time out against St. Louis but still owns a 3.28 FIP and 1.17 WHIP this season. Keep in mind, this is no one-off as Luzardo also logged a 3.12 FIP and 1.04 WHIP, albeit in only 18 starts, with the Marlins last season. Ty Blach is slated for his first start of the season for the Rockies. He has posted a 5.16 FIP and 1.95 WHIP in seven relief appearances. The Marlins own an advantage in terms of the two bullpens as well even if that hasn't been the case lately. Miami's relief corps did enter yesterday's action having worked 29 2/3 innings fewer collectively on the campaign and it's worth noting that the Rockies have used arguably their best reliever, Daniel Bard, in each of the last two games meaning he's likely unavailable on Sunday. Take Miami -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-22-23 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Baltimore at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rays got back on track with a low-scoring victory over the Orioles last night and I look for them to pick up right where they left off on Saturday afternoon as they send ace Shane McClanahan to the hill against Grayson Rodriguez of the Orioles. Rodriguez had a nice stretch at the minor league level before getting the call back up to the big club earlier this week. He struggled in his first outing back with the O's, however, allowing four earned runs over five innings in a 6-4 loss to the Dodgers. Rodriguez will be at a disadvantage here as the Rays have already seen him once this season, scoring two earned runs on seven hits against him over 5 2/3 innings back in May. Shane McClanahan will be happy to see Baltimore in the opposing dugout as he owns a career 2.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in eight career starts against them. McClanahan is of course enjoying another tremendous campaign having recorded a 3.84 FIP and 1.13 WHIP in 102 innings of work. Behind McClanahan is a Rays bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 0.92 WHIP over the last seven games. While Tampa Bay has been struggling to find the win column it has had little to do with its relief corps. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-21-23 | Toronto v. Hamilton +9.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The Argos are off to a perfect 4-0 start to the season, both SU and ATS, and most project this as a layup on the road against the 2-4 Tiger-Cats on Friday. I'm not so easily convinced. Toronto has gotten off to a red hot start on the strength of forcing a whopping 13 turnovers. Of note, the Argos won the turnover battle by a whopping 6-0 margin two games back against B.C. but still won that game by 'only' 21 points (and it was an 11-point game before Toronto tacked on a pair of scores in the game's final minute-and-a-half). I actually think the fact that the Ti-Cats will be giving rookie Taylor Powell his first career start at quarterback might work in their favor here to some extent. While QB Matt Shiltz performed admirably in place of an injured Bo Levi Mitchell, he often tried to do too much, ultimately tossing just two touchdowns compared to four interceptions. Powell is more of a pocket-passer than Shiltz and I do think he can find some success with a somewhat conservative gameplan that will undoubtedly lean heavily on RB James Butler, who not only thrives as a runner but also as a receiver in the short passing game. The Ti-Cats defense has made positive strides over the last couple of weeks, first holding the RedBlacks out of the end zone until the final two minutes of the first half (and then for the rest of the game) two weeks ago before allowing only one touchdown in the game's first 48 minutes in Edmonton last week. While they'll undoubtedly be taking a step up in class on Friday, I do think the Argos offense is in line for some regression following four straight 32+ point performances to open the campaign. This is of course a revenge spot for the Ti-Cats after they dropped a 32-14 decision in Toronto earlier this season. Note that the Argos have now won three straight meetings in this series going back to last season and that's worth mentioning as they haven't won four straight matchups with the Ti-Cats since 2012-13. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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07-20-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Winnipeg -14.5 | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Edmonton at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Bombers defense should be in a foul mood after coughing up a late lead in last Saturday's overtime loss to the RedBlacks. It was a perplexing 31-28 final score as Winnipeg actually led that game 25-6 entering the fourth quarter. Ottawa's offense didn't reach the end zone until there were nine seconds remaining in the fourth quarter (the tide essentially turned on a Zach Collaros pick-six with less than three minutes remaining). This is an ideal 'get-right' spot for the Winnipeg defense as it faces an Edmonton squad that remains winless six games into the season. The Elks did score 29 points in last week's home loss to the Tiger-Cats. With that said, they didn't find the end zone until the third quarter and ultimately padded their numbers with a couple of meaningless scores (touchdown and a field goal) in the game's final minute when the result was already all but decided. The Elks defense has actually shown a pulse this season, particularly on the road where they've allowed just 22, 26 and 12 points with all three of those contests staying 'under' the total. This will be their first of three games against the Blue Bombers this season, however, and this hasn't been a favorable matchup by any means with Winnipeg scoring 37, 30, 26, 24 and 48 points in five meetings going back to the start of the 2021 season. To make matters worse, the Elks will be missing their leading tackler LB Nyles Morgan along with space-eating DL J-Min Pelley, both due to injuries suffered in practice this week. On the other side of the football, Edmonton has had a very low floor-low ceiling scoring combination in this matchup, producing only 22, 3, 16, 10 and 11 points in the last five meetings. Here, we'll note that the Elks are a woeful 4-12 ATS against the West Division over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 18.3 points in those matchups. Take Winnipeg (8*). |
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07-20-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | 5-7 | Win | 111 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Arizona at 12:20 pm et on Thursday. The Braves are reeling, losers of four games in a row and in danger of being swept by the Diamondbacks (who were just swept themselves in Toronto last weekend) on Thursday afternoon. I expect Atlanta to avoid that fate as they take their frustrations out on D'Backs ace Zac Gallen in this spot. Gallen has been a much different pitcher on the road compared to at home this season, logging a 5.11 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 10 road outings. I can't help but think we might be seeing some fatigue out of the right-hander as he has topped out at five strikeouts or less in four of his last five starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 25 innings of work over that stretch. Since Gallen held the Braves to one hit over seven shutout innings in his first career start against them in 2021, he has been roughed up for 16 hits in just 11 2/3 innings in his last two outings in the series. Spencer Strider will counter for Atlanta. He wasn't sharp against the White Sox last weekend, allowing five earned runs in six innings in an eventual 6-5 loss. Keep in mind, he's just one start removed from shutting out the Rays over 6 1/3 innings. Atlanta's last eight wins with Strider on the hill have all come by at least two runs. That includes a 5-2 victory over these same D'Backs in Arizona back in the first week of June. While it hasn't mattered much so far in this series, the Braves bullpen does have an edge over that of the D'Backs, with Atlanta relievers logging a collective 3.58 ERA and 1.19 WHIP this season (entering last night's action). Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-16-23 | Tigers v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 115 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Detroit at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Mariners will be happy to have rookie starter Bryce Miller back earlier than expected from a blister as he takes the ball against Reese Olson of the Tigers on Sunday. Seattle will of course be looking to avoid the sweep as it has suffered through a bit of a post-All-Star break hangover. Olson has pitched well for the Tigers, logging a 3.46 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 33 1/3 innings of work this season. I do wonder how long he can keep up the pace though, noting that he has held opponents to just 6.8 hits per nine innings. This coming after he yielded 10.3 hits per nine innings in 36 2/3 frames of work at the minor league (AAA) level earlier this year. At Toledo he had posted a 6.38 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Bryce Miller has impressed for the Mariners, entering this start sporting a 3.45 FIP and 0.95 WHIP having allowed just 58-of-231 batters he has faced to reach base. Behind Miller is a Mariners bullpen that had recorded a collective 1.12 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games entering last night's contest. The Tigers 'pen has posted a 4.14 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with only 10 saves converted and eight blown on the road this season (also entering last night's action). Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-15-23 | Calgary +1.5 v. Saskatchewan | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 84 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Saturday. While it's still early in the season, the Stampeders are in desperate need of a victory on Saturday to avoid a 1-4 hole that could potentially drop them eight points (four wins) back of the Blue Bombers and Roughriders at the top of the West Division. This is also a key revenge spot for Calgary after it dropped a 29-26 overtime decision against the Riders earlier in the campaign. Keep in mind, the Stamps were favored in that contest. They've fared much better as an underdog in this series in recent years, going 3-0-1 ATS the last four times they've caught points against the Riders, as is the case here. Saskatchewan has posted mixed results so far this season but has managed to win three of four games. Last week, the Riders won ugly, pulling out a 12-11 victory over the lowly Elks. Note that Saskatchewan didn't find the end zone until their was just over a minute remaining in that game. I didn't like what I saw from the Riders defense the last time they faced the Stamps as they couldn't make a 10-point lead stand up with less than a quarter remaining. Calgary was without key WR Luther Hakunavanhu in last week's disappointing 24-11 loss in Winnipeg but he is expected back for Saturday's game. QB Jake Maier can use all the weapons he can get at his disposal as he's endured somewhat of a sophomore slump so far this season. I do think this is a spot to 'buy low' with a Stamps squad that is better than its record indicates in my opinion. Note that Calgary is 15-4 ATS in all road contests over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.5 points, and also 32-17 ATS in the long-term picture when playing on the road off a division loss, as is the case here. Saskatchewan, meanwhile, has covered the spread only once in its last 11 home games against divisional foes, outscored by 5.9 points on average in that situation. Take Calgary (8*). |
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07-15-23 | Winnipeg -9.5 v. Ottawa | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Ottawa at 4 pm et on Saturday. The RedBlacks are just one game removed from their first victory of the season but they're going to be in tough moving forward as they're down to their fourth option at quarterback in Dustin Crum. He was the Ottawa offense, mostly with his legs, after taking over for an injured Jeremiah Masoli last week in Hamilton. I don't expect Crum to catch an elite Blue Bombers defense off guard with his running ability this week, however. There's a reason why the former Kent State standout wasn't able to overtake the likes of Nick Arbuckle or Tyrie Adams for the QB job earlier this season. Now with Arbuckle having proven ineffective and Adams and Masoli injured, it's Crum's time. I look for a 'baptism by fire' of sorts in his first start on Saturday. Winnipeg is rolling right now, fresh off back-to-back double-digit victories over Montreal and Calgary. Since suffering a humbling 30-6 home loss against B.C. on June 22nd, the Blue Bombers have allowed just one touchdown in their last eight quarters of action. On the flip side, Winnipeg has displayed a balanced offensive attack, running for 100+ yards in four of five games so far this season. While Ottawa's run defense has been stout this season, it has also benefited from facing a manageable schedule. The toughest ground game the RedBlacks have faced would be Calgary and they did so with the Stamps missing starter Ka'Deem Carey. In that contest, Stamps backup RB Dedrick Mills ran for 102 yards on 19 carries. This is Winnipeg's sweet spot as it has gone a perfect 6-0 in Weeks 5 through 9 going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.9 points along the way. Meanwhile, Ottawa checks in 0-8 ATS when returning home off a road loss over the last three seasons, outscored by 10.6 points on average in that spot. Take Winnipeg (8*). |
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07-14-23 | Toronto v. Montreal +5.5 | Top | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The Alouettes were in an awful spot last Sunday as they travelled across the country to take on a Lions squad that had just suffered its first loss of the campaign in embarrassing fashion (QB Vernon Adams Jr. threw six interceptions) less than a week earlier. Montreal couldn't match B.C.'s intensity in a double-digit loss. That makes two straight defeats for the Als and that's worth noting as they've gone a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off consecutive losses over the last three seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 12.2 points in that situation. The Argos are off to a 3-0 start, scoring a whopping 120 points in the process. They've benefited from playing two of their three games at home with their lone road tilt coming against the 0-5 Elks. Note that Toronto did deliver a 34-27 victory in the most recent meeting between these East Division rivals last November but the Argos haven't posted back-to-back wins by more than a field goal against the Als since back in 2017. Incredibly, Toronto hasn't won a game by more than single point in Montreal since October of 2015. Take Montreal (10*). |
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07-08-23 | Mets v. Padres -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 120 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over New York at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series last night - their sixth straight victory. That win snapped the Padres three-game winning streak. Here, I look for San Diego to bounce back as it sends Blake Snell to the hill against David Peterson in a matchup of left-handers. Peterson has actually pitched reasonably well since returning to the big club. He still owns a 4.60 FIP and 1.67 WHIP on the season and didn't fare much better in his minor league sting, posting a 4.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 37 innings of work. Snell has really turned his season around after a shaky start to the campaign for the Padres. He enters this outing having allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last eight outings, lowering his FIP to 3.78 and his WHIP to 1.26. The two bullpens are virtually a wash on the season. While Mets relievers have pitched better over the last week or so, the Padres 'pen has still proven reliable here at home, boasting a 2.92 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-08-23 | Ottawa v. Hamilton -1.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Hamilton minus the points over Ottawa at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Tiger-Cats will look to finally pick up their first win of the season on Saturday as they host the Redblacks. Ottawa will welcome back QB Jeremiah Masoli after he started the year on the injured list. I do wonder whether he's being rushed back with last week's starter, Tyrie Adams sidelined with a knee injury and few other viable options at the position. While the Redblacks did pick up their first win of the season last week, it came against the lowly Elks. Hamilton has faced an extremely difficult schedule to open the campaign, going up against Winnipeg, Toronto and Montreal - those three teams have lost just two games combined so far this season. Note that you would have to go back eight meetings in this series - all the way to 2018 - to find the last time Ottawa won a game in this series. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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07-07-23 | Calgary +8.5 v. Winnipeg | 11-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Blue Bombers enter the first meeting between these West Division rivals this season having won three straight matchups in the series - matching their longest such streak in an eternity. Note that none of those victories came by more than a touchdown. To find the last time they've defeated the Calgary by more than a touchdown you would have to go back to 2019. Given they're north of a touchdown underdog in this one, the Stampeders may face long odds to break that series losing streak but I do expect them to at least give Winnipeg a serious fight on Friday. The Bombers benefited from four Alouettes turnovers but could only produce 17 points, albeit in a lopsided 14-point victory last week. They've now scored just 23 points over their last two games. Calgary turned in a rather sloppy performance the last time we saw it take the field two weeks ago as it turned the football over three times in an eventual 29-26 overtime loss to Saskatchewan. That loss came as a home favorite and that's notable as the Stamps are a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off an upset home loss against a division opponent over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 11.0 points in that situation. They're also an identical 7-0 ATS when playing on the road off a loss over the same stretch, outscoring foes by 11.7 points on average in that spot. Take Calgary (8*). |
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07-03-23 | BC v. Toronto +3 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over B.C. at 7 pm et on Monday. This is the ultimate letdown spot for the 3-0 B.C. Lions as they come off a stunning 30-6 rout of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, on the road no less, and head East to face the 2-0 Toronto Argonauts on Monday. Note that B.C. hasn't taken the field since June 22nd while the Argos dusted the lowly Edmonton Elks by a 42-31 score last Sunday (June 25th). I do think the rest vs. rust factor comes into play at this early stage of the season. The Lions defense has been lights out in the early going this season but I don't think their success on that side of the football will prove sustainable. The Argos are still figuring things out with Chad Kelly at quarterback but he's shown a nice mix of passing and running ability and Toronto also boasts one of the league's best running back tandems in Andrew Harris and A.J. Ouelette. We'll grab the points with the Argos here as I do think Toronto has to feel somewhat disrespected being considered the underdog at home in this early season showdown of undefeated teams. Take Toronto (8*). |
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07-02-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. Kevin Gausman will once again be tasked with lifting the Blue Jays out of a losing streak as he takes the ball against Garrett Whitlock on Sunday afternoon in Toronto. I expect the Jays to bounce back here. Gausman has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, logging a 2.55 FIP and 1.13 WHIP in 17 starts spanning 104 2/3 innings of work. His counterpart Whitlock has pitched reasonably well at times but owns a less than impressive 4.31 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) after laboring through an ugly 4 2/3 inning outing against the Marlins last time out (he allowed six earned runs on 11 hits). The Jays bullpen holds an advantage in terms of recent performance, noting that they entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven contests. In stark contrast, the Red Sox 'pen recorded a 5.33 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-01-23 | Winnipeg -6 v. Montreal | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Montreal at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Alouettes have drawn a favorable schedule to open the season, starting with a home game against the RedBlacks - projected to be one of the weaker teams in the league - followed by a bye week and then a road game against the reeling Tiger-Cats (now 0-3 on the campaign). Here, Montreal will take a step up in class against the Blue Bombers, who are coming off a miserable showing, at home no less, in a 30-6 loss to the B.C. Lions last week. That was an extremely difficult spot for Winnipeg as it returned home and played on just five days' rest after a 45-27 rout of the Roughriders in Regina. Now the Bombers have had time to regroup having not played since last Thursday and I expect a much better showing. Note that the straight-up winner has gone 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series with the only exception being a Bombers 10-point victory as an 11.5-point home favorite back in 2021. Montreal checks in a long-term 37-62 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Take Winnipeg (8*). |
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06-28-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Detroit at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. After a red hot start to the season, the Rangers have cooled off considerably - certainly at the plate. I look for them to get the best of the Tigers pitching staff on Wednesday, however. Joey Wentz will get another turn in the Detroit starting rotation out of necessity only. The Tigers are missing a number of regular starters right now, leaving Wentz as one of the only options to hold down one of the five spots. He checks in sporting a 5.46 FIP and 1.58 WHIP on the campaign and will have to face a Rangers club that has feasted on left-handed starting pitching to the tune of a 14-9 record, averaging 6.6 runs per game. To make matters worse, Wentz will be starting on short rest (four days) after an exhausting five-inning effort that saw him allow five hits, two of them home runs, four walks and four runs (three of them earned) against the Twins. The Rangers will be getting their second look at Wentz in less than a month after frustratingly plating just one run on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings against him on May 31st. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He is quietly enjoying a fine season, logging a 3.93 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 71 2/3 innings of work. Dunning has gone winless in his last three outings against the Tigers but all three of those starts came in Detroit. He's faced the Tigers twice in his career here in Texas with the Rangers winning both of those contests by multiple runs. If there's an advantage the Rangers have in the latter innings in this one it's the fact that their bullpen entered last night's contest having worked a collective 64 innings fewer than that of the Tigers this season. Over the last seven games alone Detroit's 'pen had logged 30 innings. With Wednesday's starter Wentz having lasted beyond the fifth inning just once in his last seven outings, it could be another busy night for the Tigers relief corps. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-27-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Detroit at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers dropped the opener of this series last night - their third straight defeat. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday, however, as they hand the ball to Martin Perez against Matt Manning of the Tigers. Perez hasn't been able to match the terrific numbers he posted last season, logging a 4.97 FIP and 1.45 WHIP. With that said, he does check in having lasted at least six innings in five of his last seven starts and has given up just five earned runs on seven hits over his last two outings covering a span of 13 innings. Matt Manning will make just his third start of the season for the Tigers. In those two outings he recorded a 7.29 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. He has also pitched just 8 2/3 at the Triple-A level, allowing 16-of-39 batters to reach base while recording a 1.85 WHIP. The two bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup although the Tigers relief corps has certainly been more taxed lately, logging a collective 30 innings over the last seven games, including 8 1/3 innings last night after starter Matt Boyd was forced to leave due to injury. Take Texas -1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-26-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Detroit at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Tigers have been playing reasonably well but I don't believe this is a good matchup at all for them as they head to Texas to face a Rangers club that's coming off back-to-back losses to the Yankees in the Bronx over the weekend. Matt Boyd will get the call for the visiting Tigers. He'll be starting on short rest (four day) which is notable as he has not fared well in that situation this season, allowing 16 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings. Boyd owns a pedestrian 4.25 FIP and 1.32 WHIP in 14 starts spanning 70 1/3 innings this season. While the Tigers bullpen has held up well this season, I do think regression is on the way, noting they've logged 30 innings over the last seven games alone and 303 1/3 innings on the season. That's a full 59 innings more than Texas' relief corps. Speaking of the Rangers 'pen, it has been terrific lately, posting a 2.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over the last seven games. Andrew Heaney will start for the Rangers on Monday. He's been good but certainly not great this season. With that being said, he has managed to hold eight straight opponents to three earned runs or less. For whatever reason, the Rangers bats seem to come alive for Heaney here at home, plating double-digit run totals in four of his seven home outings this season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-23-23 | Montreal +3 v. Hamilton | Top | 38-12 | Win | 100 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Month. My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While the Tiger-Cats are licking their wounds following their second straight loss to open the season, the Alouettes are fresh off their bye week, which came on the heels of a season-opening victory over Ottawa. Als QB Cody Fajardo didn't look great in his regular season debut with his new team, which perhaps was to be expected. I do expect a better showing from him following an extra week of practice and perhaps taking a step down in class against a Ti-Cats defense that hasn't shown a pulse through two games. Back in Week 1, Hamilton allowed three Winnipeg touchdowns in less than an eight-minute stretch in the first quarter. Last Sunday, the Ti-Cats yielded three touchdowns in just over a 17-minute stretch in the first half against Toronto. You have to wonder whether the Hamilton offense is capable of keeping up here as it deals with a number of key injuries. QB Bo Levi Mitchell isn't expected to play on Friday. It will also be missing three offensive linemen, with a fourth - Dayton Black - suiting up but not 100% healthy. As you would expect, the Als are at virtually full strength following an early season bye week. Only DB Nafees Lyon checks in as questionable for Friday's game. Here, we'll note that the Ti-Cats are now 0-6 ATS in the month of June going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 11.2 points in those games. Meanwhile, the Als are 9-2 ATS when involved in games where the line settled between +3 and -3 since the start of last season, which is likely to be the case here, outscoring foes by 7.0 points on average in that situation. Take Montreal (10*). |
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06-18-23 | White Sox v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 131 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Chicago at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. These two teams have split the first two games of this series but I look for the Mariners to answer back in Sunday's series finale. Lance Lynn will get another turn in the starting rotation for the White Sox, despite his struggles. Lynn has been lit up in his last two outings and will now start on short rest (four days') for a third consecutive outing. Lynn has seen his FIP balloon to 5.43 and his WHIP to 1.57 on the campaign. Mariners rookie Bryce Miller got off to a terrific start this season before getting roughed up by the Yankees and Rangers in consecutive outings. He still owns a solid 3.36 FIP and 0.93 WHIP in eight starts this season, spanning 44 1/3 innings. The Mariners bullpen has logged a collective 2.28 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven contests. Meanwhile, the White Sox 'pen has posted a 4.55 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the same stretch. In fact, Chicago has blown four saves over the last seven games alone. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-16-23 | Winnipeg -6.5 v. Saskatchewan | 45-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Saskatchewan at 9 pm et on Friday. Mosaic Stadium in Regina has traditionally been tough on opposing teams but perhaps not so much in recent years as the Roughriders have struggled to find consistency with plenty of turnover in terms of their roster. QB Trevor Harris seemed to be developing a good chemistry with WR Derek Walker but now Walker is sidelined with a knee injury while Harris battles through a hip injury of his own. Note that after Walker hauled in a touchdown in the game's first six minutes against Edmonton last week, the Riders never reached the end zone the rest of the way in an eventual 17-13 victory. That was against what projects to be one of the league's weakest teams in the Elks. The Riders will face a much tougher test against the Blue Bombers here. Winnipeg did pull out a 42-31 victory over Hamilton last week but it will likely still be in a foul mood after allowing the Tiger-Cats to claw their way back from a 29-4 halftime deficit. Note that Winnipeg found the end zone three times in the first quarter alone and didn't allow an offensive touchdown until the game was well in hand ahead 32-10 with less than four minutes remaining in the third quarter. Hamilton ultimately made the final score a little more flattering than it probably should have been thanks to a blocked punt returned for a touchdown in the third quarter and an interception return for another score in the fourth quarter. I'm confident we'll see the Bombers clean things up this week. Winnipeg has reeled off seven straight wins in this series going back to 2019 with those victories coming by an average margin of 14.9 points. Take Winnipeg (8*). |
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06-08-23 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw will be pleased to see the Reds in the opposing dugout on Thursday as he has owned them for years, allowing just four earned runs over 34 innings in his last five starts against them with the Dodgers going a perfect 5-0 in those contests. The fact that Kershaw will be starting on just four days' rest might be somewhat concerning but Los Angeles has gone 3-1 with the veteran lefty starting on short rest this season, with all three of those victories coming by at least four runs. Kershaw has of course been the picture of consistency throughout his career and this season has been no different as he owns a 3.56 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. It's a much different story for his counterpart on Thursday, Graham Ashcraft of the Reds. The right-hander checks in sporting a 5.03 FIP and 1.60 WHIP in 62 1/3 innings of work. He's given up a staggering 27 earned runs over his last four outings. The Dodgers bullpen has been shockingly bad so far this season but I still consider their relief corps to be a positive regression candidate moving forward. The opposite could be said of the Reds, noting that Cincinnati's 'pen entered last night's action with a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.32 WHIP this season. Interestingly, four of the Reds eight blown saves this season have come in afternoon games. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-04-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 111-108 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Miami at 8 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure that Game 2 of this series sets up all that much differently than Game 1, which was won by the Nuggets by a score of 104-93. As I noted in my analysis of that contest, this isn't a favorable matchup for the Heat, particularly from an offensive standpoint. Miami's offensive ceiling appears to be fairly low, noting that it has not knocked down an identical 39 field goals in all three meetings with the Nuggets this season. In Game 1, the Heat actually got off a whopping 96 field goal attempts. I expect to see Denver tighten things up considerably from a defensive standpoint here. On the flip side, the Nuggets made good on 45 and 44 field goals in the two regular season matchups between these two teams but connected on 'only' 40 in Game 1. That was on just 79 FG attempts, however. This line may seem steep until you realize that Denver has outscored opponents by an average margin of 10.1 points this season. Much like in Game 1, we'll again note that the Heat are 0-11 ATS after holding consecutive opponents to 105 points or less this season, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*). |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Nuggets in Game 1 of The Finals on Thursday. Miami of course checks in off an incredible seven-game series against the Celtics, going 5-2 ATS along the way. Note that the Heat were contained offensively for the most part in the latter stages of that series, knocking down 42 or fewer field goals in each of the final four games. I feel Miami's offensive ceiling in this particular matchup with the Nuggets is rather low, noting that it made good on an identical 39 field goals in each of two regular season meetings. In fact, the Heat have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals nine of the last 10 matchups in this series. Denver on the other hand has made good on 42 or more field goals in six straight meetings and 45 or more twice over that stretch. While this line may seem steep, it's worth noting that the Nuggets are outscoring opponents by 10.1 points on average. Also note that the Heat are 0-10 ATS this season when coming off consecutive games in which they held the opposition to 105 points or fewer, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*). |
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05-30-23 | Braves -1.5 v. A's | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Braves got stunned by the A's in the series-opener between these two teams yesterday, dropping a 7-2 decision. I look for them to bounce back on Monday, behind impressive starter Bryce Elder. Elder checks in sporting a 3.46 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 10 starts, spanning 58 1/3 innings of work. Of the 237 batters he has faced, only 72 have reached base. He'll start on a full five days' rest after taking the ball on short rest in his last outing. While the Braves bullpen has struggled lately, it has held up well on the road this season, posting a collective 2.89 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the road (entering yesterday's action). J.P. Sears will counter for Oakland. He has actually gone two starts without the A's dropping a decision by multiple runs but Oakland has lost each of his last six outings overall. Sears owns a 5.15 FIP and 1.10 WHIP on the season. He has displayed much better command than we've seen previously in his career, allowing just 1.7 walks per nine innings but will be tested by a Braves lineup that has drawn 178 walks this season (entering Monday's action). Sears hasn't worked beyond the sixth inning in any of his 10 starts this season, leaving the A's poor bullpen likely to make more than a cameo appearance here. Note that Oakland's relief corps has recorded a collective 6.50 ERA and 1.66 WHIP this season with only four saves converted and 10 blown (also entering yesterday's action). Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
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05-25-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. As much as I'd like to see this series get extended (more basketball is always a good thing), I think there's a good chance we see the Heat close the Celtics out on Thursday. Incredibly, the ATS winner has won straight-up in 31 straight meetings in this series so a sprinkle on the Heat moneyline could be well worth your while. Regardless, we'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Heat here as the series shifts back to Boston for Game 5. Miami is on an incredible run right now having not lost consecutive games since a three-game skid from March 25th to 29th. The Heat have really locked in defensively, holding each of their last 13 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Celtics have made good on 43 or fewer field goals in 10 straight contests. I don't believe Boston's offensive ceiling is all that high in this particular matchup, noting that it has topped out at 46 made field goals against Miami this season and that came in a game where the Heat were without Jimmy Butler. Even in Game 4 two nights ago, when the Celtics brought their 'A' game, performing about as well as you could expect at both ends of the floor, they still won by 'only' 17 points, noting that the margin was 15 points before a meaningless bucket on the C's final possession. For its part, Miami couldn't have played much worse, connecting on just 34-of-78 field goal attempts. Here, we'll note that the Heat are 40-25 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, actually managing to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a long-term 91-123 ATS when coming off a double-digit road victory. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-24-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners got a bit of a scare, if you can call it that, from the A's last night as they trailed 2-0 before rallying in the bottom of the fifth inning and ultimately holding on for a 3-2 victory. Sitting in fourth place in the highly-competitive American League West and staring down a tough upcoming schedule that will feature consecutive series' against the Pirates, Yankees and Rangers, it's important that Seattle makes the most of this four-game home series against the lowly A's and so far, so good with two wins in as many tries. Ken Waldichuk will inexplicably get another turn in the A's starting rotation on Wednesday. The left-hander has been every bit as bad as his 6.85 ERA indicates, logging a 7.28 FIP and 1.85 WHIP through nine starts spanning 46 innings of work. Of the 220 batters he has faced, 88 have reached base including a whopping 13 home runs. Things don't figure to get any better here as the Mariners get their second look at him this season and he starts on short rest (four days) for just the third time this season (11 earned runs allowed on 13 hits in 9 1/3 innings in his previous two starts on short rest). Behind Waldichuk is an A's bullpen that continues to struggle, entering last night's action sporting a collective 6.62 ERA and 1.72 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown this season. Impressive rookie Bryce Miller will get the start for Seattle. While he will also be starting on just four days' rest, I'm not overly concerned as he did so back on May 7th as well (against a much tougher opponent in the Houston Astros) and allowed only two hits over six shutout innings. Miller's numbers are terrific. He has logged a 1.78 FIP and 0.51 WHIP through his first four big league starts, facing 88 batters and allowing only 13 of them to reach base. What I really like about Miller is that he's shown the ability to work deep into ball games, lasting at least six innings in all four starts to date. The Mariners bullpen behind him, while showing some regression lately, has recorded a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only six blown this season (entering last night's action). Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*). |
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05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3 | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 8:30 pm et on Monday. After watching the Celtics roll over in embarrassing fashion last night, few are probably expecting much from the Lakers as they face elimination at the hands of the Nuggets on Monday. I actually think we will see some fight from Los Angeles here, noting that it has been competitive for the most part in this series and is in line for a strong bounce-back performance offensively following consecutive subpar showings. The Lakers have made good on just 36 and 38 field goals in their last two games and that's notable as they've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games just four times previously this season, averaging 41 made field goals in their next contest. While the Lakers have now lost three games in a row they haven't suffered a four-game losing streak since back in December. They've also been terrific in these playoffs following an ATS defeat, reeling off five straight ATS wins in that situation entering Monday's contest. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have now won five games in a row - their longest win streak since reeling off nine straight victories back in January. Denver is just 5-13 ATS when playing on the road following consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 5.6 points in that situation. The Nuggets are also 9-18 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive victories this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-21-23 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics have dug themselves an 0-2 hole in this series but I don't think they're about to hit the panic button just yet. After all, there's no real intimidation factor in play as they head to Miami, where they've gone 5-2 in seven meetings since the start of last season including three double-digit victories. The fact that Boston has dropped consecutive games both SU and ATS is notable as it hasn't lost three straight contests since March 3rd to 6th. To find the last time the Celtics dropped the cash in more than two straight games you would have to go back to February 27th to March 5th when they lost four in a row ATS. The Heat have now won four straight meetings in this series. That's their longest winning streak in this matchup since way back in 2004. Here, we'll note that Boston is 12-2 ATS when coming off consecutive outright defeats as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 11.2 points in that situation. The C's are also a long-term 145-109 ATS when playing on the road seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent. Meanwhile, the Heat are 13-27 ATS off an ATS victory this season and 9-18 ATS when coming off consecutive SU wins. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-20-23 | Panthers v. Hurricanes -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina -1.5 goals over Florida at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Panthers rallied to take the opener of this series on Thursday but needed nearly four full overtime periods to get it done in a game that could have obviously gone either way. This was poised to be a long series from the outset and home ice hasn't really meant all that much in this particular matchup in recent years so I don't think the Hurricanes will be too rattled by dropping the series-opener. The Panthers are headed into 'uncharted territory' - a term I've used on numerous occasions during these playoffs - as they've now matched a season-high nine straight games in which they've avoided losing by two goals or more. I expect that to change on Saturday. Note that the last time they put together such a stretch from February 28th to March 20th they went on to lose their next game by a 6-3 score in Philadelphia. Here, we'll note that the Panthers are 2-12 the last 14 times they've come off consecutive one-goal road victories, as is the case here. The Hurricanes have been stingy at the best of times this season, holding opponents to just 2.6 goals per game but that number drops to 2.1 when coming off a one-goal loss. Meanwhile, the Panthers have allowed a lofty 3.8 goals per game when coming off a road victory over the last two seasons. Finally, we'll point to the fact that 30 of Florida's 44 losses this season have come by two goals or more. Take Carolina -1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Heat pulled off a stunner in Game 1 to steal home court advantage and at the very least a split in the first two games here in Boston. Incredibly, the ATS winner has now won the last 28 meetings in this series straight-up including 13 outright underdog victories. I look for that trend to continue on Friday but with the Celtics coming out on the winning end this time around. It certainly appeared as if the Celtics thought the Heat would simply roll over and concede Game 1 after Boston took control late in the first half to build a nine-point halftime lead. Instead, the Heat came out on fire in the third quarter, took control of the game and cruised the rest of the way. Note that Miami knocked down 46 field goals in the victory. We haven't seen it connect on 46 or more field goals in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd (oddly enough both games were against Boston) so we can count on some offensive regression here. The Celtics have now dropped three straight meetings in this series (both SU and ATS) and that's notable as they haven't lost four straight matchups against Miami since 2004. Here, we'll note that the Heat are just 8-18 ATS when coming off consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, while the Celtics are 19-9 ATS when coming off an upset loss at home over the last two seasons. Take Boston (8*). |
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05-17-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. I'm just not buying what the oddsmakers are selling with the Celtics laying a generous helping of points in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final on Wednesday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive ATS defeats - their longest ATS losing skid since dropping the cash in three straight games from March 25th to 29th. Prior to that you would have to go back to February 13th to 25th - spanning across the All-Star break - to find a previous occasion where Miami lost more than two games in a row ATS. Meanwhile, the Celtics have covered the spread in consecutive games. They haven't strung together more than two ATS wins in a row since a six-game ATS winning streak that stretched from the last two games of the regular season into their opening round mismatch with the Hawks. I don't believe Boston's offensive ceiling is all that high in this particular matchup. The Celtics topped out at 46 made field goals in four regular season matchups between these two teams and that performance came in a game where the Heat were missing Jimmy Butler back in late-November (Boston won that game by 13 points). In fact, the C's have knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series. That's not to say the Heat have lit it up from the field in this matchup, however, I do feel there's a path for Miami to effectively shorten this game, noting that it checks in having limited the Knicks to 86 or fewer field goal attempts in five of six games last round. The Celtics have been a more up-tempo team than we've been accustomed to seeing as a whole this season, but enter this series having hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 12 of their last 16 contests. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are just 9-21 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.8 points on average in that situation. Take Miami (8*). |
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05-15-23 | Royals v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Padres enter this game on a season-long five-game losing streak following a disheartening sweep at the hands of the division-rival Dodgers in Los Angeles. Their longest previous losing skid lasted only three games (that's happened twice previously this season). I'm confident we'll see them bounce back as they return home to host the Royals on Monday. Interestingly, tonight's starter for San Diego will be Michael Wacha who just happens to be the last starting pitcher to guide them to victory last week in Minnesota. Wacha has been handled well this season as he's yet to make a start on short rest (four days) and won't here either. He's pitched as well as the Padres could have hoped for in the early stages of the season as he has posted a 4.13 FIP and 1.34 WHIP. While he is putting a few too many batters on base for my liking, he's done a better job over his last two starts, yielding just five hits and five walks (and only one earned run) over 12 innings. Wacha's counterpart on Monday will be Brad Keller of the Royals. The other Keller, Mitch, was lights out for the Pirates yesterday and has arguably been one of the best starters in all of baseball over the last month. It's a much different story with Brad. He checks in sporting a 5.39 FIP and 1.77 WHIP having allowed a whopping 72-of-178 batters he has faced to reach base. Note that he'll be making his second straight start on short rest here. Of course, the Royals bullpen hasn't been much better, entering yesterday's action with a collective 5.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP having converted five saves and blown six. The Padres bullpen hasn't been quite as good as most expected but hasn't been the biggest problem either, logging a collective 3.92 ERA and 1.26 WHIP entering yesterday's contest. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-13-23 | Stars v. Seattle Kraken +1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 goals over Dallas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Stars have taken over this series thanks to consecutive lopsided victories. With that being said, it's difficult enough to string together three straight wins by two goals or more but to do it against the same opponent is even tougher. Case in point, prior to the last two games, the Stars had never even won consecutive matchups in this series by multiple goals. You would have to go back to a three-game stretch from March 1st to 4th to find the last time Dallas reeled off three straight victories by two goals or more. Meanwhile, the Kraken haven't lost three straight games by multiple goals since February 7th to 10th. Here, we'll note that Dallas is a woeful 9-19 when playing on the road after winning their previous contest by three goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. The Stars are also just 7-11 when coming off a home win by two goals or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.1 goal in that spot. Seattle checks in 15-8 when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored five goals or more this season, which is the situation here, outscoring foes by 0.8 goals on average along the way. When playing with double-revenge this season, the Kraken are 14-9 having outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals. Take Seattle +1.5 goals (8*). |
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors saw their fourth quarter lead fizzle in Game 4 of this series on Monday and now they find themselves facing elimination as they return home for Game 5 on Wednesday. I expect them to answer back, noting they're off consecutive losses but haven't dropped three games in a row since March 15th to 18th. That also marked the last time they went three consecutive games without posting an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Lakers have won back-to-back games and we've seen this story before in these playoffs as they're 0-2 SU and ATS when coming off consecutive victories, outscored by 17 and 27 points in those two contests. Also note that the Warriors are 12-3 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 11.0 points in that situation. They're also 13-3 ATS when playing at home after losing four or five of their last six games over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points on average in that spot. The Warriors quite simply went cold from the field in the last two games but did manage to get off 91 field goal attempts in one of those contests while getting back to 40 or more made field goals in the other. They have been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in their last two games. On nine previous occasions where that occurred this season, they responded by averaging 121.8 points in their next contest. I like that Golden State continues to play well defensively, having limited seven straight and an incredible 20 of its last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While there is a fairly distinct offensive floor in place for the Lakers in this particular matchup, I don't believe their ceiling is all that high. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-09-23 | Rangers v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 130 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
American League Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners wasted another terrific outing from Logan Gilbert in a 2-1 loss to the Rangers to open this series last night. Now 4.5 games back of division-leading Texas and looking up at three teams in the American League West standings, I look for Seattle to answer back on Tuesday. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the visiting Rangers. He had an outlier of a season with the Dodgers last year, an injury-shortened one at that, posting a 3.75 FIP and 1.09 WHIP in 72 2/3 innings of work and that earned him a $12 million contract in the offseason. Not surprisingly, he hasn't been able to reach the same heights back in the American League this year, logging a 6.18 FIP and 1.30 WHIP through six starts spanning 29 1/3 innings. The Mariners will likely be happy to see their old friend (Heaney spent the majority of his career with the division-rival Angels), noting that they're 8-7 all time against him as he has recorded a lofty 4.52 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. George Kirby will counter for Seattle. After finishing sixth in American League Rookie of the Year voting last season he's picked up right where he left off here in 2023. Kirby checks in sporting a 3.05 FIP and 0.98 WHIP, allowing just 39-of-148 batters he has faced to reach base so far this season. Note that he's faced the Rangers four times previously with Seattle going a perfect 4-0 with three of those wins coming by two runs or more. While it didn't play out that way last night, the two bullpens in this matchup entered the series heading in opposite directions with the Rangers 'pen having logged a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over its last seven games and the Mariners relief corps' having posted a 1.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the same stretch. Rather than lay the considerable chalk with the Mariners here, we'll sacrifice a run and back them on the run-line, noting that 13 of their 17 victories this season have come by two runs or more. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-08-23 | Warriors +3.5 v. Lakers | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Monday. The Lakers thrashed the Warriors by 30 points on Saturday as Golden State had a miserable night shooting the basketball, connecting on just 36-of-91 field goal attempts in the loss. Hidden in that lopsided result was the fact that the Warriors held their sixth straight opponent to 43 or fewer made field goals. Golden State has now limited an incredible 19 of its last 20 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. I am confident we'll see the Warriors bounce back offensively here, noting that they've averaged 120.0 points per game when coming off a contest in which they made good on fewer than 40 field goals this season. We can project Golden State to have plenty of scoring opportunities in this game as the Lakers have now yielded more than 90 field goal attempts to seven straight opponents. While Los Angeles has hung tough in this series going back to the start of the regular season, I don't feel it has all that high of an offensive ceiling, noting that it has topped out at 42 made field goals in seven matchups. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are 22-10 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 6.8 points in that situation. This is also one our favorite fade spots for the Lakers, as they're a woeful 5-17 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home victory over the last three seasons. Take Golden State (8*). |
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05-08-23 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Oilers | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Oilers routed the Golden Knights 5-1 on Saturday after dropping the opener of this series by a 6-4 score. I don't believe this is a series where home ice will matter a great deal, noting that both teams have been terrific on the road this season and certainly in these playoffs (combined 4-1 to date). Vegas checks in 28-15 away from home this season, outscoring foes by an average margin of 0.6 goals along the way. I mentioned the Knights are coming off a lopsided loss in Game 2 and that's notable as they haven't lost consecutive games by two goals or more since November 25th and 26th and that marked the only time it happened all season. Going back over the history of this series (since the Golden Knights joined the league in 2017), the Oilers have never defeated Vegas by multiple goals in consecutive meetings. The Knights have been terrific when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, going 25-11 while outscoring foes by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Oilers are just 7-11 when playing at home off a victory by two goals or more this season and a long-term 18-24 on home ice after scoring three goals or more in five consecutive games, as is the case here. Take Vegas +1.5 goals (8*). |
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05-06-23 | A's v. Royals -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Oakland at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The A's took a wild one in the series-opener between these basement-dwelling clubs last night. I expect the Royals to answer back on Saturday. Ken Waldichuk will take the ball for Oakland, giving the Royals the opportunity to face a southpaw starter for the second straight game after seeing Kyle Muller last night. Note that Kansas City is averaging 4.7 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, nearly a full run higher than its season scoring average. Waldichuk has been every bit as bad as his 7.26 ERA indicates, sporting a 7.40 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in six starts spanning 31 innings of work this season. Behind him is a majors-worst bullpen that has logged a collective 6.80 ERA and 1.74 WHIP with only three saves converted and nine blown. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He's had an up-and-down start to the 2023 campaign after pitching well for the Royals last season (3.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 153 1/3 innings pitched in 2022). Singer has been marginally better than his inflated 8.49 ERA indicates this season, posting a 5.05 FIP and 1.52 WHIP (still ugly numbers, I know). After turning in arguably his best start of the young season in Arizona two outings back, he made his next appearance on short (four days) rest in Minnesota and proceeded to get shelled for eight earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings. He's back on schedule here, pitching on full (five days) rest and facing an A's lineup that has just one hitter that has seen him before (Tony Kemp - 0-for-9 career against Singer). Two other A's, Seth Brown and Aledmys Diaz, have worn Singer out in the past but both are currently sidelined due to injury. The Royals bullpen has been almost as bad as that of the A's so far this season. However, on a positive note, they kept a number of their key relievers idle in last night's defeat. I mentioned Oakland's penchant for collapsing late with nine blown saves already this season. In stark contrast, the Royals have converted five saves while blowing only four. While Kansas City has just two home victories to its credit this season, both came by multiple runs. On the flip side, nine of the A's 11 road defeats have come by at least two runs with seven of those coming by four runs or more. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*). |
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05-05-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Denver at 10 pm et on Friday. The word 'sweep' is being thrown around quite a bit as this series shifts to Phoenix with the Suns licking their wounds following consecutive double-digit losses in Denver. Yes, the Suns are in tough with Chris Paul sidelined, likely for the next three games, due to a groin injury suffered in Game 2. His absence likely means more time with the ball in the hands of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant and I don't think it's a stretch to say that duo is likely relishing the opportunity to play 'hero ball' on Friday night. Cam Payne and Damion Lee project to absorb Chris Paul's minutes. Both struggled mightily in Game 2 of this series but I'm confident they can bounce back at home. Payne in particular has shown flashes of brilliance over the course of his young career and this is obviously a big opportunity to showcase his talent. While the Nuggets have won consecutive games to open this series, they're heading into uncharted territory now, having now won more than two meetings in a row against the Suns since 2019-20 when they reeled off five straight victories in this series (3-2 ATS). Here, we'll note that Denver is a long-term 126-169 ATS when playing on the road after winning its last two games ATS. Worse still, the Nuggets check in 6-17 ATS when coming off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons. Phoenix on the other hand has gone 28-15 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.8 points in that situation. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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05-05-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | 114-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The Celtics made the necessary adjustments after a poor defensive showing in Game 1 of this series and ultimately thrashed the 76ers by 34 points in Game 2 on Wednesday. I expect the 76ers to answer back as the series shifts to Philadelphia for Game 3 on Friday. While it's difficult to term any playoff game as a 'throwaway affair' but I think Game 2 of this series did quickly devolve into that type of contest for the 76ers. They ultimately hoisted up only 79 field goal attempts (and connected on just 31) in that uninspiring effort. Of course, the Sixers had already accomplished what they set out to do in the first two games in Boston and that was earn a split. A letdown was almost surely in order. Here, I'm confident it will be Philadelphia that makes the necessary adjustments, noting that it allowed Boston to get off 92 field goal attempts in Game 2 - the first time in seven games it yielded more than 83 FG attempts to its opponent. Still, the Sixers have limited seven straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Philadelphia has allowed 110.2 points per game overall this season, that number drops to 104.3 ppg allowed when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 or more points, as is the case here, outscoring foes by an average margin of 7.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Boston averages 116.1 points per game on the road this season but that scoring average drops to 110.7 ppg when coming off a win over a division opponent. Finally, we'll note that the 76ers are 42-26 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Doc Rivers, outscoring the opposition by 6.5 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 35 h 22 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers stunned the Warriors by a score of 117-112 in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday as Golden State had an awful shooting night and ultimately fell just short. I'm confident we'll see the Warriors bounce back in Game 2 on Thursday. Note that Golden State got off a whopping 106 field goal attempts in the series-opener. That marked the sixth time since February 23rd that the Warriors hoisted up 100 or more field goal attempts. The Lakers haven't had the ability (or interest) in limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding 90 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 14 contests. Give a team as talented as the Warriors enough opportunities and they're going to take advantage and I think we'll see that on Thursday. On the flip side, Golden State allowed Los Angeles to knock down 43-of-92 field goal attempts in Game 1 of this series. Interestingly, the Warriors have now held 17 of their last 18 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. That's impressive when you consider each of their last 14 opponents have gotten off 90 or more FG attempts. Here, we'll note that Golden State is 32-18 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here (the Lakers have actually won four straight meetings in this series). While the Warriors have averaged 118.6 points per game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 points, they've scored an average of 120.3 points per game while outscoring the opposition by 9.2 points on average when coming off an ATS loss (15-6 ATS in that situation). Finally, the Lakers are 15-29 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories over the last three seasons, which is the situation here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-04-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
A.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. Mariners starter George Kirby was a hard-luck loser in his most recent outing, working eight dominant innings against the Phillies but ultimately falling short in a 1-0 defeat. His 2-2 record through five starts overshadows just how effective he's been in his second big league season. Kirby checks in sporting a terrific 2.93 ERA but he's arguably been even better than that, logging a 2.61 FIP and 0.95 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings of work. Of the 120 batters he has faced, only 31 have reached base, including just a single home run allowed and a ridiculous two walks issued. While Kirby's results against the A's were a mixed bag in four starts last season (ERA north of four), most of the damage was done by players no longer on the A's roster (Sean Murphy and Stephen Vogt in particular). His counterpart on Thursday will be Drew Rucinski. The right-hander likely wouldn't be starting in most other big league rotations but such is the state of the A's pitching staff. Rucinski checks in sporting a 5.83 FIP and 2.12 WHIP in just 5 2/3 innings of work. I realize we're talking about a small sample size but the fact that 12 of the 28 batters he has faced have reached base is alarming. Also note that prior to getting called up, Rucinski had posted a 6.52 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings at the minor league level this season. Prior to that, he hadn't pitched with any major league organization since he was a member of the Marlins back in 2018. Of course, it's the A's bullpen that is even more concerning. Oakland relievers have combined to post a 7.07 ERA and 1.79 WHIP this season with only three saves converted and a whopping nine blown. Contrast that with the Mariners 'pen, which has logged a collective 2.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with those numbers lowering to 1.21 and 1.12, respectively, over the last seven games. Seattle relievers have combined to close out 10 saves while blowing just four. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Atlanta at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The majority of the teams looking to 'bounce back' in NBA playoff action last night simply didn't, with the Cavaliers and Bucks both eliminated on their home floor and the Kings pushed to the brink of elimination with a home defeat against the Warriors - their third loss in a row. Only the Grizzlies managed to fight back. I only say point that out as I do expect the Celtics to respond positively following their stunning home loss to the Hawks two nights ago. Boston appeared to have that game (and the series) sewn up but as has inexplicably happened on multiple occasions this season, it let down its guard and now is forced to go back to work on the road on Thursday. Note that the Celtics are 39-26 ATS when coming off a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points on average in that situation. Atlanta on the other hand checks in a woeful 7-19 ATS when coming off an outright win as an underdog over the last two seasons, as is the case here. While the return of Dejounte Murray from suspension figures to give the Hawks a boost, it also serves to take some opportunities away from Trae Young, who I think thrives when forced to shoulder the entire offensive load, as we saw in Game 5 on Tuesday. Take Boston (8*). |
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04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11 | Top | 128-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Miami at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat pulled off an improbable home sweep of the Bucks in Games 3 and 4 of this series and head to Milwaukee with a commanding 3-1 series lead. I expect the Bucks to answer back on Wednesday, however. Consider Game 4 of this series the 'Jimmy Butler Game' as he went off for 56 points with the rest of the Heat players essentially left to play bit parts. Despite being held to 87 field goal attempts or less in all four games in this series, the Heat have scored above their season scoring average in all four contests thanks to knocking down 50, 45, 45 and 43 field goals. Interestingly, Game 4 was actually their worst shooting performance of the series yet they won in a rout. Here, I'm confident we'll see a positive response from the Bucks defensively. Note that prior to this series, Miami had made good on 43 or fewer field goals in 25 of its previous 30 contests. Despite the loss in the same situation in Game 4, the Bucks are still 11-2 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this season, averaging well north of their season scoring average with 120.0 points per game in that situation. When coming off consecutive ATS losses this season (12-game sample size), as is the case here, Milwaukee has averaged 123.9 points per game. In the long-term picture, the Bucks are 71-46 ATS when playing at home off consecutive defeats. This has typically been a poor spot for the Heat this season as they're a woeful 1-10 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games, averaging only 104.8 points per game in that situation. Over the last two seasons, the Heat have gone 4-14 ATS when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six contests ATS, as is the case here, averaging a similarly poor 104.9 ppg along the way. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-26-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -4 | 99-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. After stealing a split in the first two games of this series in Memphis the Lakers held serve in Games 3 and 4 at home, including an overtime victory last time out. Needless to say, that most recent contest could have gone either way and I certainly don't think the Grizzlies will feel like they're out of this series despite being down 3-1. Extended ATS winning streaks haven't been commonplace for the Lakers in recent years, noting that they've gone 15-28 ATS following two or more ATS victories in a row over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Worse still, they're just 8-19 ATS when coming off consecutive home wins over the same stretch. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, check in 19-7 when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.0 points in that situation. They've proven to be a resilient team, going 17-6 ATS after suffering consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.1 points on average in that spot. Despite losing both Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles, Memphis still held the Lakers to just 41 made field goals in each contest (including an overtime game) and have now limited five of their last eight foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Following a late season offensive surge, the Lakers have connected on 41 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. I also feel that Los Angeles is giving up far too many scoring opportunities, having yielded 89 or more field goal attempts in regulation time in six of its last seven contests. Look for the Grizzlies to take advantage on Wednesday. Take Memphis (8*). |
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04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | 106-95 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over New York at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Garden felt like the Garden again as the Knicks rolled to consecutive victories over the Cavaliers on Friday and Sunday, grabbing a 3-1 lead in the series as it shifts back to Cleveland for Game 5 on Wednesday. I don't expect the Cavs to roll over as they've owned a considerable home court advantage of their own all season, going 32-11 SU and 26-17 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.2 points per game. Better still, the Cavs are 10-2 ATS when playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, outscoring the opposition by a ridculous average margin of 14.8 points in that spot. When playing at home after losing four or five of their last six games ATS this season, as is the case here, they've held opponents to just 98.1 points per game, outscoring them by 16.6 points on average. I felt that Cleveland had its share of good looks from the field in Games 3 and 4 but simply couldn't take advantage. While the Knicks have undoubtedly been good defensively, limiting the Cavs to 38 or fewer made field goals in all four games in this series, Cleveland has now limited six straight opponents to less than 40 made field goals. Here at home this season, the Cavs have held the opposition to an average of only 38 made field goals per contest. As poorly as things went for Cleveland offensively over the last couple of games, it's worth noting that it was held to fewer than 100 points in back-to-back contests only once previously this season - that coming in its regular season finale and then Game 1 of this series. We saw the Cavs bounce back from those poor performances with a resounding 107-90 win over the Knicks in Game 2. Look for them to bring their 'A' game again on Wednesday. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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04-25-23 | Rockies v. Guardians -1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland -1.5 runs over Colorado at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Rockies took the opener of this series last night and it wasn't particularly close as they jumped ahead 6-0 before the end of the fifth inning and never looked back. The Guardians have admittedly been stumbling lately but I do see this as an ideal bounce-back spot on Tuesday. Ryan Feltner will take the ball for Colorado. He hasn't been quite as bad as his six-plus ERA would indicate but he hasn't been good either. Feltner checks in sporting a 4.69 FIP and 1.68 WHIP, allowing 32-of-88 batters to reach base. As I've noted on multiple occasions this season, the Guardians have the type of lineup that puts a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers - especially those that tend to play with fire and put men on base consistently. Note that Cleveland boasts an incredible five players ranked in the top-15 in baseball (including ties) in stolen bases this season. The Rockies bullpen held up well late night but didn't face much pressure either. Entering this series, Colorado's 'pen had logged a 4.50 ERA and 1.47 WHIP while being forced to work a whopping 90 innings collectively. Rookie Peyton Battenfield will get his third start of the campaign for the Guardians. More has been asked of him due to injuries in Cleveland's starting rotation and the rookie starter has taken advantage. He enters Tuesday's outing sporting a 3.88 FIP and 0.94 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings of work. Of the 41 batters Battenfield has faced, only 10 have reached base. A closer look into Battenfield's background shows that he posted a solid 3.63 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 28 starts at the Triple-A level last season. It's been a steady ascension through the Guardians' minor league system for the right-hander and he certainly appears ready for the opportunity to pitch at this level. Of course, Cleveland owns one of the best bullpens in baseball, even if its numbers have been rather pedestrian so far this season. The Guardians relief corps' has posted a collective 3.47 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with nine saves converted and four blown here in 2023 (entering last night's action). They kept most of their key arms idle thanks to the lopsided result last night, including setup man James Karinchak and closer Emmanuel Clase. Take Cleveland -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-23-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Golden State at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. I think we're seeing an overreaction to the lopsided nature of Game 3 of this series on Thursday as the Kings suffered an expected letdown after winning the first two games of the series at home. Sacramento certainly didn't bring its 'A' game on that night, knocking down just 35-of-92 field goal attempts in the 17-point loss. I do think the potential is there for the Kings to give the Warriors a much tougher run here, noting they haven't dropped consecutive games ATS in this series since back in October and December 2021 (the two teams have met nine times since). While the Warriors have been defending reasonably well, as I noted in my analysis of Thursday's contest, I don't like the fact that they've now allowed nine straight opponents to get off 90 or more field goal attempts including 98, 92 and 92 in this series. Give a team as talented as the Kings enough scoring opportunities and they're going to take advantage. On the flip side, Game 3 marked the first time in seven games the Kings allowed an opponent to hoist up more than 90 FG attempts and they still held the Warriors to only 40 made field goals. Sacramento has limited seven straight and 10 of its last 11 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. Golden State has been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in eight of its last 11 contests. The Warriors will get Draymond Green back from suspension for this game. I'm not sure how much of a help that really is as I liked the rotation they employed without him on Thursday with Jordan Poole and Donte DiVincenzo in particular seeing extra floor time. Finally, we'll note that the Kings are 16-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 2.2 points in that situation. They've gone 22-12 ATS when coming off a loss this season, outscoring foes by 2.7 points on average in that spot. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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04-23-23 | Nationals v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 runs over Washington at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We resisted the temptation to back the Twins on the run-line yesterday after they dropped the opener of this series on Friday night, thankfully so as they got drilled in the second game of this series. They'll look to avoid the unlikely series sweep at the hands of the Nationals on Sunday afternoon and I'm confident they can do just that in convincing fashion. Patrick Corbin will get another turn in the Washington rotation, despite his struggles continuing in the early going this season. Corbin has been just about as bad as his 6.30 ERA indicates, recording a 4.91 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while allowing 35-of-96 batters to reach base. I do think the Twins have a similar lineup to the Guardians in terms of their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths and that particular order gave him plenty of trouble in his most recent start. The presence of Bailey Ober on the mound for the Twins may give some bettors pause but I'm not sure that it should. Ober quietly recorded a 2.92 FIP and 1.05 WHIP in 11 starts spanning 56 innings of work last season but was the odd man out in terms of the Twins rotation to start this season after the acquisition of Pablo Lopez. Due to injuries, there is an opportunity for Ober to perhaps stick at the big league level for a bit should he perform well here. Note that the right-hander had been pitching well at Triple-A, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, not to mention a 22:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 17 2/3 innings this season. The Nationals bullpen has actually outperformed that of the Twins so far this season, but similar to what I alluded to in my Dodgers-Cubs writeup yesterday, I would anticipate that script flipping as the season goes on. Note that the Minnesota 'pen is still one of the fresher relief corps' in baseball having only logged a collective 69 innings this season. Thanks to the lopsided nature of yesterday's game, the Twins were able to keep their key relievers off the mound with recent call-up Simeon Woods Richardson logging a key 4 2/3 innings in relief in Saturday's contest. Take Minnesota -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Sacramento at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Warriors have had no answers for the aggressiveness of De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk through two games in this series. While the sudden absence of Draymond Green (due to suspension) doesn't figure to help matters, I actually think Golden State can spin it into a positive as it returns home in an 0-2 hole on Thursday. The absence of Green should mean more minutes for the likes of Donte DiVincenzo, Jonathan Kuminga and Gary Payton Jr, all of which can help out on defense but also provide more of a spark offensively. Here, we'll note that the Warriors have gone 14-6 ATS when playing at home off an ATS loss this season, averaging 120.6 points per game (compared to their home season scoring average of 119.7 ppg) while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.8 points in that situation. Better still, Golden State is 25-13 ATS at home off a loss of any kind over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 9.6 points on average in that spot. While the Kings have averaged 118.0 points per game on the road this season, that number drops to 115.4 when checking in as a road underdog. Sacramento enters this game off consecutive wins but hasn't won three straight contests since March 15th to 18th and all three of those victories came against Eastern Conference opponents. Despite their poor start in this series, the Warriors check in 8-4 ATS over their last 12 games having not dropped three in a row since, coincidentally, March 15th to 18th. While Golden State has obviously struggled to defend Sacramento at times in this series, I do think the Warriors deserve credit for their defensively play in recent weeks. Note that Golden State has held 12 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals, despite nine of those foes getting off 90 or more field goal attempts. In stark contrast, the Kings have allowed 12 of their last 14 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field. That's concerning when you consider that the Warriors have gotten off 90 or more FG attempts in five of their last seven games and have knocked down more than 40 field goals in 14 of their last 17 contests. In other words, I don't believe the sky is falling in San Francisco and expect the defending champions to get back in this series on Thursday. Take Golden State (10*). |
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04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a major adjustment to this pointspread since Game 1, due in large part to the up-in-the-air status of Ja Morant after he re-aggravated his hand injury in the series-opener. I believe it will prove too much of an adjustment as the Grizzlies look to answer back at home, where they're still an incredible 35-7 this season having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 10.0 points per game. Keep in mind, Memphis is accustomed to playing without Morant as it has done so on 22 occasions this season. Also note that he has topped out at 18 points in six of his last nine games so I do think his offensive production can be accounted for with Tyus Jones and Luke Kennard in particular being called upon. The Lakers are approaching uncharted territory noting that they've now won four straight games. They've only once previously won more than four games in a row this season, that coming in a five-game win streak from December 30th to January 7th. Also note that they've now covered the spread in consecutive meetings with the Grizzlies. They haven't managed to reel off three straight ATS victories in this series since way back in 2017. The fact that the Lakers pulled away in the closing minutes on Saturday sets them up in a situation where they've gone 18-35 ATS following a double-digit win over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS when playing at home following two or more days' rest this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 16.5 points on average in that spot. They've also 24-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.6 points in that situation. I could go on but the bottom line is, I don't anticipate the Lakers getting anything close to the combined 19-of-27 shooting we saw from the duo of Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura in Game 1, while the Grizzlies have proven resilient under head coach Taylor Jenkins going 23-10 ATS playing at home off a home loss and 38-22 ATS when coming off consecutive defeats. Take Memphis (8*). |
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04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento over Golden State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. Most are expecting the Warriors to simply 'flip the switch' and play competitive basketball on the road in these playoffs but I'm not so easily convinced. Golden State actually had just nine wins in 39 road games before beating this same Kings squad (in a game where it rested most of its starters) and a down-trodden, injury-riddled Blazers team last week. Even in that win over the Kings, the Warriors still managed to get off only 78 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Warriors, despite fighting for their playoff lives down the stretch, still allowed each of their last six opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. The Kings figure to be poised to take advantage, noting that they average 45 made field goals per contest (on only 88 FG attempts per game) here at home this season. The Warriors won last week's meeting SU and ATS but haven't posted consecutive ATS victories in this series since late 2021. Here, we'll note that the Kings are 21-12 ATS off a loss this season and 12-1 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS, as is the case here. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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04-14-23 | Mets -1.5 v. A's | 17-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The A's actually had a bit of an offensive explosion over the final three games of their series in Baltimore but managed just one victory. Here, I look for the Oakland offense to go back in the tank as it returns home to cavernous O.co Coliseum to host the Mets. Kodai Senga will get his third big league start for the Mets. While his command hasn't necessarily been there just yet (six walks through 11 1/3 innings, there's no question he has been impressive, posting a 3.66 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings. His counterpart on Friday will be James Kaprielian. I question whether the A's right-hander is long for a big league rotation at this point. He's been in the majors full-time since 2021 and has logged a 4.72 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. The book is effectively out on Kaprielian and I look for the Mets to be next in line to take advantage on Friday. Behind Kaprielian is an A's bullpen that doesn't even get a chance to catch its breath after another wild, high-scoring game in Baltimore yesterday. The A's have already logged 55 innings in relief, posting a collective 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and lost an arm to injury in Domingo Acevedo during the series in Baltimore. New York's 'pen is still missing closer Edwin Diaz but has been impressive nonetheless, recording a 3.72 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Friday. I just think the Timberwolves are a mess right now in all regards and don't really understand the logic behind them being favored by such a considerable margin in this play-in game against the pesky Thunder. Yes, Oklahoma City continues to struggle to contain opposing offenses. The Thunder prevailed on Wednesday in New Orleans despite allowing the Pelicans to knock down 42-of-87 field goal attempts. I'm not convinced the T'Wolves are as well-positioned to take advantage of Oklahoma City's current defensive transgressions, however. Anthony Edwards is a shell of his former self due to late-season injuries and shot a miserable 6-of-17 from the field in Tuesday's loss to the Lakers. It remains to be seen if Rudy Gobert will return after serving his one-game suspension as he deals with a bad back. The Thunder are a taxing opponent to face right now as they continue to push the pace, hoisting up 93, 97, 90 and 92 field goal attempts over their last four games. It's been a struggle for the T'Wolves to just get shots off let alone knock them down, attempting 85 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games including only 83 in Tuesday's overtime contest against the Lakers. Minnesota has picked a bad time to go in the tank offensively, making good on 41 or fewer field goals in six of its last seven games. It has also struggled to slow down the opposition, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in seven straight contests (aided by overtime last time out). While the T'Wolves have taken three of four meetings with the Thunder this season they haven't covered the spread in consecutive matchups in this series since last season (they won the most recent meeting ATS on December 16th). Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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04-12-23 | Bulls +5.5 v. Raptors | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Toronto at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors managed to close out their regular season on a high note by blowing out the undermanned Bucks on Sunday, snapping a two-game skid in the process. I'm just not sold on this Toronto team, noting that nothing seemed to come easy for it all season, going an even 40-40 ATS (excluding pushes) and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of just 1.5 points. The Bulls were almost a mirror-image during the regular season, going 42-39 ATS while outscoring opponents by 1.3 points on average. I fully expect a tightly-contested affair between these familiar foes on Wednesday and will grab all the points I can get with the underdog Bulls. Note that Toronto did take the most recent meeting 104-98 here at home in late February. That's notable as the Raptors haven't won consecutive games against the Bulls since reeling off an incredible 12 straight victories in the series from 2017 to 2020. They haven't posted two ATS wins in a row over Chicago since March and October of 2019. Thanks to a defense that checks in having held 10 of its last 13 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, I do think the Bulls are capable of hanging with anyone on any given night. The Raps have been similarly tough to break down defensively but that only lends itself to a reasonably low-scoring game here and in that situation, I'm comfortable grabbing the generous helping of points with Chicago. Note that Toronto is just 9-21 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by just 0.5 points on average in that situation. Take Chicago (8*). |
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04-11-23 | Hawks +5 v. Heat | Top | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Play-In Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Heat easily disposed of the Hawks in the opening round of last year's Playoffs and while it's been a long time coming, Atlanta finally has a chance to get its revenge when it really matters in Tuesday's Play-In Tournament opener. Yes, these two teams met four times during the regular season with Miami taking three of those four contests as well. The Hawks know they can hang with the Heat though. Their back-to-back losses here in Miami in early March came by a combined 10 points. Interestingly, the Heat were favored by only 2.5 points in the latter of those two contests. Here, Atlanta is arguably healthier than it was then - the healthiest it has been all season in fact. While the Hawks do come in off consecutive losses, their final regular season affair was a throwaway game against the Celtics where their starters sat. Prior to dropping their final two regular season contests they had won three games in a row. They enter this game having made good on 43 or more field goals in five straight games and more than 40 in an incredible 17 of their last 18 contests. While the Heat are known for their defense, they actually haven't held an opponent to fewer than 100 points since February 27th. You would have to go all the way back to mid-January to find the last time they held an opponent under 100 points and won by more than four points. Interestingly, Miami was actually held under 100 points itself in three of its last 11 regular season contests. While the Hawks are by no means an elite defensive team and haven't been in recent years, you would have to go back a whopping 18 meetings in this series to find the last time Miami knocked down more than 43 field goals. The Hawks breezed past that mark in two of the last three matchups in this series. Finally, we'll note that Atlanta is 16-4 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.0 points. Meanwhile, the Heat check in a miserable 1-9 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games this season, which is the situation here, outscored by 8.3 points on average in that spot. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-05-23 | Bulls +8 v. Bucks | Top | 92-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We'll fade the Bucks off consecutive double-digit wins over the 76ers and Wizards as they return home in a back-to-back spot on Wednesday night. Chicago is in a back-to-back situation of its own after dropping a lopsided home decision against the Hawks last night. I can't help but feel the Bulls overlooked a Trae Young-less Atlanta squad. The Hawks were actually held to just 86 field goal attempts in that game - the eighth straight contest in which Chicago limited the opposition to 86 or fewer field goal attempts - but quite simply shot the lights out, knocking down 48 of them. I certainly don't expect the Bulls to overlook the mighty Bucks here. Note that Chicago is 14-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an impressive average margin of 7.0 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks are a long-term 103-144 ATS when playing at home after winning three of their last four games, which is the situation here, and 113-147 ATS when returning home following a road victory. Note that while the Bucks are coming off consecutive wins, they've only won three games in a row once going back to March 11th. Chicago has lost consecutive contests only once since March 8th. Take Chicago (10*). |
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04-04-23 | Celtics v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The 76ers predictably had their two-game winning streak snapped in Milwaukee on Sunday as the Bucks were in line for a big bounce-back performance after an embarrassing blowout loss at home against the Celtics three nights earlier. Here, I look for Philadelphia to get back on track as it hosts Boston, which comes off consecutive wins of its own and plays the front half of a back-to-back set culminating with a home game against Toronto on Wednesday. The 76ers continue to clamp down defensively, having held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a much different story for the Celtics, who have allowed 96 or more field goal attempts in each of their last four contests. While Boston has admittedly been red hot offensively it has been idle since Friday and isn't likely to afford itself nearly as many scoring opportunities as it has seen recently (91 or more FG attempts in six straight games). Note that while the Celtics are a perfect 3-0 in this series this season, they've gotten off just 82, 76 and 86 FG attempts in those three games. All three contests could have gone either way given they were all decided by single-digit margins, including a narrow three-point C's win here in Philadelphia back on February 25th. Note that the 76ers are 19-8 ATS when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.4 points. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State +7.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday. My handicap of this matchup is fairly straight-forward. When we last saw these two teams in the Final Four on Saturday, San Diego was fortunate to escape with a one-point win on a buzzer-beater against Florida Atlantic while Connecticut was never really challenged in a dominant double-digit victory over Miami. I can't help but feel that leaves the Aztecs a little undervalued here as I like the way they match up against the Huskies. San Diego State is capable of defending the perimeter and making UConn work for every basket, effectively able to shorten proceedings thanks to its methodical nature, not to mention its fundamentally-sound defense. Note that the Aztecs rank fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, having faced the 16th toughest slate of offensive opponents (both according to KenPom). While UConn has run the table against non-conference opponents, it also faced just the 210th most difficult non-conference schedule. In stark contrast, San Diego State went up against the 17th toughest non-conference slate. Lines are obviously going to be extremely tight at this stage of the tournament. I've become a fan of San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher over the course of this tournament and like the fact that the Aztecs have gone 44-31 ATS when coming off an ATS loss under his guidance, as is the case here. UConn enters this game on the heels of five straight ATS wins and the last time it accomplished that feat it lost its next game outright as a four-point favorite in the Big East Tournament against Marquette. Take San Diego State (10*). |
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03-31-23 | Pistons +5 v. Rockets | 115-121 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I think the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this game on Friday. The Pistons have at least continued to play some defense, allowing 38, 44, 41, 45 and 39 made field goals over their last five games but in the three occasions where the opposition got into the 40's, they also got off 92 or more field goal attempts. It's a different story for Houston. It has allowed a ridiculous 50 or more made field goals in two of its last four games. On the flip side, the Rockets have knocked down 42 or more field goals in consecutive games but haven't hit 40+ in three straight contests since doing so in five straight games from March 9th to 17th - a stretch that saw them win three games outright (they've lost seven straight games since). Noting that they're 49-30 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, we'll back the revenge-minded Pistons here (they lost the first meeting this season by three points at home in late-January). Take Detroit (8*). |
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03-28-23 | Magic +8.5 v. Grizzlies | 108-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'm expecting a tightly-contested affair between these non-conference opponents on Tuesday as the Magic look to extend their three-game winning streak while the Grizzlies aim for their seventh consecutive victory. The Grizzlies have been red hot offensively, knocking down 45 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. On the flip side, however, they also seem to be developing some bad habits defensively, having yielded 48, 47 and 45 made field goals over their last three contests. After facing the likes of the Rockets (twice) and Hawks over their last three games, the Magic might just resemble the early-2000's Pistons to the Grizzlies here. Orlando has held three of its last four opponents to 37 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Magic offense has thrived, knocking down 40 or more field goals in each of their last 13 contests. Take Orlando (8*). |
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03-28-23 | Cavs v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavaliers are riding a four-game winning streak, having gone 3-1 ATS over that stretch. I think that streak comes to an end on Tuesday, however, as they face a tougher challenge in the Hawks after going against the Wizards, Nets (twice) and Rockets over their last four games. Atlanta enters this game on a tear offensively. It has knocked down at least 44 field goals in an incredible eight straight and 10 of its last 11 games overall. Of course, the Hawks defense is far from elite and they've also given up 45, 52 and 48 made field goals over their last three contests. I think they catch a bit of a break here, however, as they go up against a slow-paced Cavs squad that has topped out at 42 made field goals over their last three games and hasn't hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts since March 6th. While Atlanta is just 3-3 over its last six games, it hasn't lost consecutive contests since March 11th and 13th (it comes off a loss against Memphis here). Also note that the Hawks have dropped the cash in consecutive games only once this entire month (7-6 ATS in March). Take Atlanta (10*). |
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03-26-23 | Mavs -10 v. Hornets | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Charlotte at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. A quick revenge spot for the down-trodden Mavericks here as they look to snap a three-game losing streak and avenge Friday's stunning nine-point home loss against the Hornets. Likely to have their full compliments of players at their disposal, I expect the Mavs to put forth a much sharper performance than we saw on Friday. Keep in mind, that last game against the Hornets came on the heels of consecutive gut-wrenching losses to the Grizzlies and Warriors (by a combined six points). The Mavs overlooked the lowly Hornets, plain and simple. They won't here as this road trip will only get tougher with stops in Indiana, Philadelphia, Miami and Atlanta on deck. The Hornets are without Terry Rozier while Kelly Oubre continues to battle through a shoulder injury (he is expected to play). Here, we'll note that Dallas is 19-5 ATS when playing on the road off an outright upset loss over the last three seasons. Take Dallas (8*). |
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03-25-23 | Bucks v. Nuggets -2.5 | 106-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We got the result we wanted from the Bucks last night, winning with them in Utah and also getting a lopsided final score that sets us up nicely for a play on the Nuggets on Saturday. Sweeping a back-to-back set in altitude in Salt Lake City and Denver is never easy and I don't expect that to be any different for the mighty Bucks. Milwaukee is rolling offensively right now but almost certainly in for some regression after knocking down 51 and 55 field goals in its last two games. Note that it got off 98 and 99 field goal attempts in those two contests but Denver has held four straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. The Nuggets have yielded just 39, 41, 38 and 44 made field goals in their last four contests with the high-water mark coming in a 118-104 win over the Wizards last time out. Offensively, Denver is well-positioned to go off in this game. It has made good on 42 or more field goals in each of its last seven games, finally fully healthy. The Bucks have yielded at least 93 FG attempts in an incredible 11 straight games with six of their opponents getting off at least 100. The Nuggets did drop the first meeting between these two teams this season but that came in Milwaukee, without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, and it came by just eight points as a 10-point underdog. Take Denver (8*). |
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03-25-23 | Sharks +1.5 v. Flames | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Calgary at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We successfully faded the Flames in their 3-2 loss to the Golden Knights on Thursday and we'll do so again here, albeit on the puck-line with the underdog Sharks. San Jose comes off a 7-2 beatdown in Vancouver two nights ago. Keep in mind, it is just one-game removed from an overtime loss against the red hot Oilers in Edmonton so it's not as if the Sharks have completely folded at this late stage of the season. Here, San Jose will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak in this series. Note that the Flames hadn't won three consecutive meetings with the Sharks since 2015 prior to their current streak. To find the last time Calgary took four straight games against San Jose you would have to go all the way back to 2008. That's not to mention the fact that the Flames last three victories over the Sharks have all come by at least two goals. Note that San Jose is a respectable 17-15 when playing on the road after allowing three or more goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.2 goals in that spot. As bad as things have gone for them this season, they're 9-4 when playing on the road after allowing four or more goals in back-to-back games, which is also the situation here, outscoring the opposition by 0.6 goals on average along the way. We can even take it one step farther, noting that San Jose has won all four games when playing away from home after giving up five or more goals in each of its last two contests this season, as is the case here. The Sharks have outscored opponents by an impressive average margin of 2.0 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Flames season is quickly circling the drain at this point and we'll note that they're just 8-15 when coming off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that spot. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (8*). |
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03-24-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Lakers | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. We'll fade the Lakers off their big home win over the Suns two nights ago. That marked Los Angeles' second straight victory but it remains just 1-2-1 ATS over its last four contests. The Lakers have had a tough time just getting shots off lately, hoisting up 84, 78 and 70 field goal attempts over their last three games and now go up against a Thunder defense that can certainly hang and figures to be in a foul mood after allowing the Clippers to connect on 42-of-90 field goal attempts, without Paul George no less, in a lopsided affair last night. Of course, perhaps a letdown was to be expected from the Thunder after they notched a 101-100 victory over the same Clips two nights earlier. This will be Oklahoma City's third straight game in Los Angeles and it has looked reasonably comfortable - even in last night's loss it still made good on 41-of-93 FG attempts, the fifth time in the last six games it managed to get off at least 93 FG attempts. It remains to be seen whether Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be able to play on Friday as he recovers from an abdominal injury. We'll treat it as a bonus if he can go but will make this play assuming he'll be sidelined. The Thunder have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games following a loss. They haven't dropped consecutive games since enduring a five-game skid from February 23rd to March 1st. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a woeful 4-15 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home win over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by just 2.0 points on average in that spot. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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03-24-23 | Bucks -8.5 v. Jazz | Top | 144-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Jazz are in tough right now with both Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen sidelined. They did manage to win without that duo on Monday against the Kings but followed it up with a double-digit loss to the Blazers on Wednesday (with Markkanen in the lineup). Utah is now in uncharted territory offensively as it has scored 115 points or more in eight straight games - its longest such streak of the season. Here, it will be tested, however, as the Bucks have held three of their last four opponents under that number. Milwaukee has limited only three of its last seven opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals but that's not all bad when you consider the shot volume it has been yielding. The Bucks have allowed at least 93 field goal attempts in each of their last nine games. Only one of Milwaukee's last six opponents has managed to shoot better than 44.4% from the field. The Jazz check in having allowed 40 or more made field goals in eight of their last nine contests. The only occasion where they didn't over that stretch came in a game where they held Miami to just 79 FG attempts but still gave up 119 points in a losing effort. The Bucks, even without Khris Middleton, should be able to get loose given Utah has yielded 93 or more FG attempts in four of its last six contests. One thing Milwaukee doesn't lack in is scoring depth so the absence of Middleton can certainly be managed. Here, we'll note that the Bucks are a long-term 53-32 ATS when playing on the road as a favorite of between 6.5 and 12.5 points, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Jazz are a miserable 1-9 ATS when coming off six or seven ATS wins in their last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, allowing a whopping 121.4 points per game in that spot. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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03-22-23 | Suns -1 v. Lakers | 111-122 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I like the spot here for the struggling Suns as they check in having lost four of their last five games SU and all five ATS but all is not lost. They're still sitting in second place in the Pacific Division and fourth in the Western Conference. You would assume Phoenix would be struggling mightily at the offensive end of the floor with Kevin Durant and now DeAndre Ayton sidelined but that hasn't necessarily been the case. The Suns put up 120 points in Sunday's narrow loss to the Thunder and have knocked down more than 40 field goals in an incredible nine straight games and 40 or more in 14 consecutive contests. The issue has been their defensive play but I believe that can be rectified in fairly short order. Here, we'll note that the Suns have allowed just 107.6 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (54-game sample size) and 107.2 ppg when that loss came on the road (33-game sample size), as is the case here. The Lakers have topped out at 111 points over their last three games - that performance coming in the 'Austin Reaves game' on Sunday against the road-weary Magic. Note that Los Angeles has been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of its last four contests. Like the Suns, the Lakers have also had a tough time defensively in recent weeks, allowing 46, 42, 42, 47, 40 and 41 made field goals over their last six games. Note that they're a woeful 13-27 ATS when playing at home after a home win over the last three seasons. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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03-22-23 | 76ers -3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a double-overtime game two nights ago in Philadelphia with the Bulls pulling out a 109-105 victory. The 76ers haven't shot remotely close to as poorly as they did in that contest since back on February 27th in a 101-99 home loss to the Heat. Note that they followed up that dismal performance with a 119-96 victory in Miami two nights later. I expect the Sixers to bounce back nicely here as well, noting that they're 22-12 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.4 points per game. The Bulls are coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, which means they're approaching uncharted territory as they've put together a streak longer than that only once previously, and that lasted just four games back in early January. While Chicago has been winning it has been increasingly reliant on the do of Zach LaVine and Demar Derozan to shoulder the offensive load. I'm confident we'll see the Sixers - an elite defensive team - make the necessary adjustments against that duo here. Even in Monday's overtime loss, the Sixers still held Chicago to fewer than 40 made field goals (39). That marked the fourth time in their last five games they limited the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Philadelphia has knocked down at least 40 field goals in nine of its last 11 contests. James Harden is questionable to play on Wednesday but even if he can't go, I'm confident others can pick up the slack, most notably De'Anthony Melton who has scored in double-figures in five of the last seven games. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia is 18-8 ATS when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.8 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bulls are a long-term 113-155 ATS when playing at home off consecutive ATS victories. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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03-21-23 | Wisconsin +5 v. Oregon | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on Wisconsin plus the points over Oregon at 9 pm et on Tuesday. As high as I've been on Oregon at times this season, I think the time has come to fade the Ducks on Tuesday as they check in as considerable favorites against Wisconsin in NIT quarter-final action. First, it's certainly worth noting that Oregon is dealing with a cluster of injuries at the moment with no fewer than three key contributors questionable to return to the court for Tuesday's game. That's notable especially at this time of year when energy and depth tends to be depleted. The Ducks absences didn't cost them against the likes of Cal-Irvine and UCF but likely will here. Note that Oregon was fortunate that UCF had an off shooting night on Sunday as it made good on just 19-of-62 field goal attempts. The Ducks are playing with fire right now at the defensive end of the floor, having yielded 60, 80 and 62 FG attempts over their last three contests. Wisconsin figures to take advantage, noting that it is playing some of its best offensive basketball of the season now that it's out of the Big Ten. In fact, going back to February 22nd, the Badgers have made good on 25, 30, 23, 27, 21, 25 and 27 field goals and that's despite getting off 58 or fewer FG attempts in five of those seven contests. Defensively, it's been a bit more challenging but the good news is, the Badgers have limited their opponents' scoring opportunities for the most part, allowing 55 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last five games. I do think they can effectively shorten this game with their methodical tempo, which is what you generally want to see from an underdog in this pointspread range. Only 15 teams have faced a tougher schedule than Wisconsin this season (according to KenPom), noting that the Badgers faced the likes of Dayton, Kansas, USC and Marquette in non-conference action this season, going 3-1 in those four games in particular with the lone loss coming by a single point against Kansas. Oregon, on the other hand, stepped up in class and lost by 10 points against Houston, 24 at the hands of Connecticut and four against Michigan State. Take Wisconsin (10*). |
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03-20-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Knicks | 140-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. These two teams certainly appear to be headed in opposite directions right now with Minnesota off three straight losses and New York checking in following three consecutive wins. The T'Wolves not surprisingly weren't competitive on Saturday in Toronto, playing on the second of back-to-back nights after a double-overtime loss in Chicago the night previous. That loss to the Bulls was multi-faceted as Minnesota also lost Anthony Edwards to what appeared to be a serious ankle injury. It turns out that injury may not be as severe as first thought as he was out of the walking boot on Sunday. While he's unlikely to play on Monday, I still think the T'Wolves can hang. Minnesota has undoubtedly had this rematch circled since dropping a 120-107 decision at home against the Knicks back in November. Note that the T'Wolves are 30-18 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 points in that spot. They're also 15-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.2 points on average in that situation. While the Knicks are 12-3 ATS over their last 15 games, they've won by more than eight points only six times over that stretch. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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03-19-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Atlantic -15 | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida Atlantic minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. I have no problem with laying the lofty number of points with Florida Atlantic here, even after Fairleigh Dickinson shocked number-one seed Purdue in its tournament opener on Friday. FDU still checks in ranked 274th in the country according to KenPom - most glaring is the fact that the Knights are 353rd (out of 364 teams) in adjusted offensive efficiency, despite having faced the 362 most difficult schedule in terms of opponents' offensive efficiency. It's obviously extremely rare for a 16-seed to prevail over a one-seed, even moreso when it shoots worse than 39% from the field as FDU did against Purdue. That upset had everything to do with the Big Ten champs looking right past the Knights, and paying the price for it. I don't expect Florida Atlantic to take anything for granted here - after all, it is coming off an 'upset' win of its own over highly-touted Memphis in the opening round. While the Owls didn't necessarily have their shooting legs under them, they still afforded themselves plenty of scoring opportunities - 65 field goal attempts to be exact. They've knocked down at least 25 field goals in an incredible 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Owls are certainly no strangers to blowout victories, with five wins by 20+ points to their credit over their last eight games alone. Take Florida Atlantic (10*). |
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03-19-23 | Michigan State +3 v. Marquette | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan State plus the points over Marquette at 5:15 pm et on Sunday. Marquette put on a shooting clinic in its double-digit win and cover against Vermont in the opening round. That marked its third straight ATS victory. Note that the Golden Eagles have reeled off four or more consecutive ATS wins on two previous occasions this season but to keep those streaks intact beyond three in a row they faced a pair of disappointing teams in Georgetown and Villanova. This time around they'll be up against Michigan State, which is essentially playing with 'house money', dancing on to the second round as a double-digit loss team but having faced the sixth most difficult schedule in the country this season (according to KenPom). In stark contrast, Marquette has faced the 42nd toughest slate of opponents this season, including 196th in non-conference play. Firmly planted in uncharted territory having won a season-high 10 consecutive games (its previous longest win streak was five), we'll fade the Golden Eagles here. Take Michigan State (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Auburn v. Houston -5 | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Auburn at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Regardless whether Houston star guard Marcus Sasser is able to play or how much he can contribute, I like the way this matchup sets up for the Cougars. Auburn exploded for 51 points in the second half in its opening round victory over Iowa. Keep in mind, that was just the Tigers fifth win since January 25th. They haven't posted consecutive victories since a five-game winning streak fro January 7th to 21st. I don't like the Auburn defense here, noting that it has allowed 32, 29, 25, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five contests. The Cougars play at one of the slowest tempos in the entire country but I look for the Tigers to do all they can to speed them up here and I think that actually may end up working against them. Houston certainly didn't show it in its tournament opener but it can hang a crooked number on the scoreboard when necessary. Note that the Cougars have knocked down at least 25 field goals in six of their last eight games. They've been held under 70 points in five straight games but that's by far their longest such streak of the season (prior to it they had been held under 70 in only six of 30 contests). With or without Sasser, I look for the Cougars to outpace the Tigers here. Take Houston (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Duke v. Tennessee +4 | 52-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Duke at 2:40 pm et on Saturday. Duke has reeled off five straight ATS victories including a blowout win over Oral Roberts in the opening round of this tournament on Thursday. Long pointspread win streaks aren't commonplace for teams as high-profile as the Blue Devils and I can't help but feel it's leaving them overvalued as a considerable favorite against Tennessee on Saturday. Note that prior to its current streak, the Blue Devils season-long ATS run had lasted only two games and that happened just once - way back in the first two games of the regular season. Here, I anticipate Duke getting stymied by a tremendous Tennessee defense that checks in ranked second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). The Vols actually sit 10 spots ahead of the Blue Devils in KenPom's overall rankings. While Duke has impressed, it is just one game removed from a sub-20 field goal performance against Virginia (in the ACC Championship Game). In stark contrast, the Vols have knocked down more than 20 field goals in 11 straight games - that despite playing at only the 276th fastest tempo in the country (again according to KenPom). In what projects as a low-scoring game, we'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Vols. Take Tennessee (8*). |
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03-18-23 | Michigan v. Vanderbilt -1 | 65-66 | Push | 0 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vanderbilt minus the points over Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won with Michigan in its NIT opener against Toledo but it faces a much more difficult challenge as it heads on the road to take on Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Commodores are a red hot 10-2 SU and ATS over their last 12 games and unlike the Wolverines, I think Vandy is content to be in the NIT, rather than feeling snubbed by the NCAA Tournament committee. Michigan has struggled away from home all season, going 5-11 while being outscored by an average margin of 1.2 points on average. Meanwhile, Vandy is 13-5 in Nashville, outscoring the opposition by 4.8 points on average. With the Wolverines giving up far too many scoring opportunities (they've allowed more than 60 field goal attempts in five straight games) I look for the Commodores to roll here. Take Vanderbilt (8*). |
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03-17-23 | Arizona State +6 v. TCU | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona State plus the points over TCU at 10:05 pm et on Friday. Bettors will undoubtedly be down on Pac-12 teams after watching Arizona's stunning loss to Princeton yesterday (the Wildcats won the Pac-12 Tournament less than a week ago). With that being said, I'll grab all the points I can get with underdog Arizona State here. TCU peaked sometime around mid-January, perhaps more specifically on January 21st when it won by 23 points on the road against Kansas. At that time, the Horned Frogs had just four losses but they've gone on to suffer eight more since. Since a four-game slide in late January, Arizona State has gone 8-5 over its last 13 games, including upset wins over Stanford, Arizona and USC. While the Sun Devils are coming off an incredible 98-point performance against Nevada in their 'First Four' matchup on Wednesday, I've been more impressed by their defense. They've held five straight opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts entering Friday's contest. The Horned Frogs have knocked down more than 20 field goals in five straight games but they've done so on the strength of 59 or more FG attempts in four of those five contests. Defensively, you would have to go back 14 games, all the way to January 24th, to find the last time TCU limited an opponent to fewer than 24 made field goals. I expect this game to go down to the wire at the very least. Take Arizona State (8*). |
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03-17-23 | VCU v. St. Mary's -4 | Top | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Mary's minus the points over VCU at 2 pm et on Friday. I think VCU carries a certain reputation when it comes to postseason basketball, due in large part to past success. I don't think this is a good matchup at all for the Rams as they take on a St. Mary's Gaels squad that many consider an afterthought after getting brushed aside by Gonzaga twice in its last three games. Entering the tournament, the Gaels rank 12th overall according to KenPom, displaying tremendous efficiency at both ends of the floor. It's a case of 'anything you can do, I can do better' by my estimation. While VCU ranks an impressive 16th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, St. Mary's checks in ninth. The Rams sit just 138th in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency - a far cry from the Gaels 39th ranking. Did St. Mary's do it against a weaker schedule? Not even close as the Gaels have faced the 74th toughest slate of opponents this season (also according to KenPom) and the 56th most difficult non-conference schedule. VCU checks in 134th and 215th in those two categories, respectively. Note that St. Mary's has reeled off six consecutive ATS wins when coming off an in-conference loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here. In fact, the Gaels are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 contests following a straight-up loss. While St. Mary's has gone a profitable 18-13 ATS in lined contests this season, you have to wonder if that record might be a shade better were it not for its opponents shooting an above-average 75.2% from the free throw line. Note that VCU has knocked down just 69.7% of its attempts from the charity stripe this season. Take St. Mary's (10*). |
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03-16-23 | Utah State -1.5 v. Missouri | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Missouri at 1:40 pm et on Thursday. I love the matchup for Utah State here as it draws what I consider to be an overrated SEC squad in Missouri that has certainly exceeded expectations this season but isn't well-suited to go on a deep tournament run in my opinion. Many watched the Tigers upset Tennessee last Friday but their SEC Tournament success was short-lived as they were outmatched by Alabama the next day. While Missouri has managed to get hot for stretches offensively, it has also been limited to 23 or fewer made field goals in four of its last eight games. My concern with Missouri lies at the defensive end of the floor where it ranks 179th in the nation in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and will have to deal with an experienced, multi-pronged Utah State offense that checks in 13th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency despite quietly having faced the 58th most difficult schedule. The Aggies fell just short in the Mountain West Championship Game against a terrific San Diego State squad but I'm confident they'll get right back up for this NCAA Tournament opening round matchup. With 7'1" Trevin Dorius in the middle not to mention the imposing duo of Taylor Funk and Sean Bairstow and the glue-guy that holds it all together in hometown boy Steven Ashworth, I believe this Aggies squad has the potential to make some noise this weekend, starting with Thursday's game. Take Utah State (8*). |
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03-15-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -2 | Top | 126-134 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. For a team that manages its schedule ultra-conservatively from a personnel standpoint, the situation doesn't get much better for the Clippers. They've been off for the last three days and after tonight's contest will get two more days off before playing at home again on Friday against Orlando. And the good news is, the Clips enter this contest playing some of their best basketball of the season. They've won three straight games to pull even with the Warriors in the Western Conference standings. Their offense is rolling, having knocked down 47, 45, 39 and 42 field goals over their last four games with the lone outlier coming in a 108-100 victory over Toronto in which they hoisted up only 71 field goal attempts. Defensively, Los Angeles is locked-in, most recently holding the Raptors and Knicks to just 37 and 32 made field goals, respectively. It's a different story at that end of the floor for the Warriors as they've employed a 'swinging-gate' style of defense, allowing 42, 50, 50, 43 and 46 made field goals over their last five contests, albeit aided by overtime in one of those games (against the Bucks). Offensively, they've been fine, as expected, but most of their damage has been done at home. The Warriors remain a woeful 7-26 on the road, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 7.2 points. Interestingly, you would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time the Warriors covered the spread in consecutive meetings with the Clippers when one of those matchups took place in Los Angeles, as is the case here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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03-14-23 | Toledo v. Michigan -6 | 80-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Toledo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Bettors seem eager to fade Michigan in its NIT opener, probably feeling that it will be disinterested after getting 'snubbed' by the NCAA Tournament committee. This Wolverines team wasn't likely to go deep in the NCAA Tournament anyway, and I think the players know that. A high ranking in the NIT does give the Wolverines and opportunity to keep playing and building for next season (keep in mind Michigan returned only one starter this season). I like the draw here in the opening matchup. Toledo doesn't play a lick of defense. The Rockets rank a woeful 287th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite having faced the 213th most difficult schedule in terms of opponents' adjusted offensive efficiency (both according to KenPom). Yes, Toledo can score, or it could against MAC foes anyway. The Rockets only faced the 199th toughest slate of non-conference opponents (and didn't go against a single opponent from the Power-5 conferences) so it's difficult to gauge how they'll fare in this step-up spot. On the heels of three straight losses, I think we see Michigan's best effort here as I'm willing to bet on head coach Juwan Howard's ability to get his players up for this NIT opener. Note that while Toledo has only lost seven games this season, each of those seven defeats came by at least seven points and five of them came by double-digit margins. Take Michigan (8*). |
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03-12-23 | Knicks +2.5 v. Lakers | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The Knicks may be missing Jalen Brunson but there's still no reason for their offense to go in the tank the way it has over the last few games. Off a dreadful performance on this same court against the Clippers yesterday, I look for them to rebound on Sunday night against the Lakers. Los Angeles is coming off a win over Toronto on Friday night. That had more to do with the Raptors inability to lay the hammer down than anything else. Toronto had a number of opportunities to take full control of that contest but simply failed to do so. Off three straight losses, I expect the Knicks to play inspired basketball as they look to at least give themselves a shot at splitting this four-game road trip. Note that New York is 20-14 on the road this season, where it has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.3 points. It also checks in an impressive 24-10 ATS when playing the second night of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscoring foes by 5.1 points on average in that spot. Take New York (8*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
09-02-23 | Old Dominion v. Virginia Tech -15.5 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
09-02-23 | Twins v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
08-25-23 | Lions +5 v. Panthers | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
08-21-23 | Ravens -1 v. Commanders | 28-29 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
08-20-23 | Saints -3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
08-19-23 | Patriots +3 v. Packers | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
08-19-23 | Montreal v. Ottawa +1.5 | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
08-17-23 | Browns v. Eagles -3.5 | 18-18 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
08-11-23 | Saskatchewan +5.5 v. Montreal | Top | 12-41 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
08-11-23 | Falcons -2 v. Dolphins | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
08-05-23 | Montreal v. Hamilton +3 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
08-05-23 | Nationals v. Reds -1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
08-04-23 | Toronto v. Calgary +8.5 | Top | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
08-04-23 | Nationals v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
07-28-23 | Hamilton +2 v. Ottawa | 16-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
07-26-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
07-23-23 | Rockies v. Marlins -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
07-22-23 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
07-21-23 | Toronto v. Hamilton +9.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
07-20-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Winnipeg -14.5 | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
07-20-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | 5-7 | Win | 111 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
07-16-23 | Tigers v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 115 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
07-15-23 | Calgary +1.5 v. Saskatchewan | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 84 h 34 m | Show | |
07-15-23 | Winnipeg -9.5 v. Ottawa | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 49 m | Show | |
07-14-23 | Toronto v. Montreal +5.5 | Top | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 18 m | Show |
07-08-23 | Mets v. Padres -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 120 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
07-08-23 | Ottawa v. Hamilton -1.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
07-07-23 | Calgary +8.5 v. Winnipeg | 11-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
07-03-23 | BC v. Toronto +3 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
07-02-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
07-01-23 | Winnipeg -6 v. Montreal | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
06-28-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
06-27-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
06-26-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
06-23-23 | Montreal +3 v. Hamilton | Top | 38-12 | Win | 100 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
06-18-23 | White Sox v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 131 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
06-16-23 | Winnipeg -6.5 v. Saskatchewan | 45-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
06-08-23 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
06-04-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 111-108 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
05-30-23 | Braves -1.5 v. A's | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
05-25-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
05-24-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3 | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
05-21-23 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
05-20-23 | Panthers v. Hurricanes -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 56 m | Show | |
05-17-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
05-15-23 | Royals v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
05-13-23 | Stars v. Seattle Kraken +1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
05-09-23 | Rangers v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 130 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
05-08-23 | Warriors +3.5 v. Lakers | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
05-08-23 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Oilers | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
05-06-23 | A's v. Royals -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
05-05-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
05-05-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | 114-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 35 h 22 m | Show |
05-04-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11 | Top | 128-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
04-26-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -4 | 99-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | 106-95 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
04-25-23 | Rockies v. Guardians -1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
04-23-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
04-23-23 | Nationals v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
04-14-23 | Mets -1.5 v. A's | 17-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
04-12-23 | Bulls +5.5 v. Raptors | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
04-11-23 | Hawks +5 v. Heat | Top | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
04-05-23 | Bulls +8 v. Bucks | Top | 92-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
04-04-23 | Celtics v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
04-03-23 | San Diego State +7.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
03-31-23 | Pistons +5 v. Rockets | 115-121 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
03-28-23 | Magic +8.5 v. Grizzlies | 108-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
03-28-23 | Cavs v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
03-26-23 | Mavs -10 v. Hornets | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
03-25-23 | Bucks v. Nuggets -2.5 | 106-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
03-25-23 | Sharks +1.5 v. Flames | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
03-24-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Lakers | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
03-24-23 | Bucks -8.5 v. Jazz | Top | 144-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
03-22-23 | Suns -1 v. Lakers | 111-122 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
03-22-23 | 76ers -3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
03-21-23 | Wisconsin +5 v. Oregon | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
03-20-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Knicks | 140-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
03-19-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Atlantic -15 | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
03-19-23 | Michigan State +3 v. Marquette | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
03-18-23 | Auburn v. Houston -5 | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
03-18-23 | Duke v. Tennessee +4 | 52-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
03-18-23 | Michigan v. Vanderbilt -1 | 65-66 | Push | 0 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
03-17-23 | Arizona State +6 v. TCU | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
03-17-23 | VCU v. St. Mary's -4 | Top | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
03-16-23 | Utah State -1.5 v. Missouri | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 11 m | Show | |
03-15-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -2 | Top | 126-134 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
03-14-23 | Toledo v. Michigan -6 | 80-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
03-12-23 | Knicks +2.5 v. Lakers | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |