Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -2 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Round 1 Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Knicks after they played poorly but still took the Hawks right down to the wire in the opener of this series on Sunday. The fantastic duo of R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle combined to knock down just 12 shots and score only 29 points in Game 1, something I look for them to make amends for here in Game 2. Hawks superstar Trae Young got to the free throw line nine times (and knocked down all nine shots) in Game 1 and now continues to get called out for 'flopping'. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Knicks get the benefit of the doubt from the officials a little more here in Game 2. Note that the Hawks are just 5-15 ATS on the road after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 7.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Knicks have thrived in similar situations to this all season, going 18-8 ATS as a favorite and and incredible 25-6 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3, as is the case here. Better still, they're 17-2 ATS when at home in the latter situation this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.9 points. Finally, note that the Knicks have taken four of the last six meetings with Atlanta here at home. I don't believe there's any real intimidation factor at play in this one. Now that the Hawks have earned their split in New York, I look for the Knicks to answer back and send the series back to Atlanta knotted at one game apiece. Take New York (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | 127-121 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks took the opener of this series on Saturday but I look for the Clippers to answer back with a convincing victory of their own on Tuesday. Remember, these two teams met in the bubble in Orlando last August as the Clippers prevailed 4-2. In that series, the Clips did a terrific job bouncing back from their two losses, securing victories by eight and 43-point margins (yes, they won the latter contest 154-111). That's pretty much par for the course when it comes to the Clippers as they've been a terrific bounce-back team, having gone 33-19 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 10.8 points in that situation. Better still, they're 13-4 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss, as is the case here, over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.8 points in that spot. Dallas is an excellent team and certainly has a shot at winning this series, as evidenced by its convincing Game 1 victory, however I expect the Mavs to have a tough time matching the Clips intensity here after accomplishing their goal of earning at least a split in Los Angeles. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Sun v. Storm -3 | 87-90 | Push | 0 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Connecticut at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Connecticut has exceeded expectations and gotten off to a perfect 5-0 start keyed by consecutive wins over the Mercury and Aces - two of the league's best teams - to open this three-game road trip. I expect the Sun to finally get tripped up on Tuesday night, however, as they face a tall task against the defending champion Storm. Seattle has just one blemish on its record so far this season with that setback coming in the second half of a two-game set against the aforementioned Aces. Note that the Storm swept last year's two-game season series, winning both meetings by double-digits. They've gone 14-8 in the last 22 meetings in this series. The Sun should have the Storm's full attention for this one given their undefeated record. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Blazers took the opener of this series, which shouldn't have come as a big surprise as they played exceptionally well down the stretch this season and they've been terrific on the road, going 23-14. Here, I expect the Nuggets to bounce back, however, noting that they've gone 25-12 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of six points, and have taken seven of their last 10 home meetings with Portland. The Blazers have now won consecutive games in this series after the Nuggets had taken the previous two. Note that the Nuggets check in 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when trailing a playoff series, outscoring the opposition by 6.9 points per game. They've also a terrific 13-4 ATS when coming off two more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.8 points. All respect to Portland, it was the better team in Game 1, but now it has accomplished its goal of earning at least a split here in Denver. Look for the Blazers to fall short on Monday. Take Denver (10*). |
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05-24-21 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | 98-132 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the Heat in the opener of this series on Saturday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. While the Bucks slogan is 'Fear the Deer', there was really nothing to fear for Miami in Game 1 of this series on Saturday. The Heat were right there for four quarters plus overtime and only fell short thanks to an incredible shot by Khris Middleton in the final second of OT. The fact that they were right there should be encouraging as the Heat certainly didn't play their best game - not by a longshot. So many easy shots - within 4-6 feet of the basket - were missed. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo just couldn't buy a basket at times, missing a number of layups that could have easiliy been the difference in the game. I expect them to make amends here on Monday. Note that the Heat remain a winning team on the road this season and they'll certainly want to earn a split here in Milwaukee, knowing just how difficult it would be to come back from a 2-0 deficit, needing four wins in five games - a nearly insurmountable task against a team as good as the Bucks. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
NBA First Round Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Sunday. The Grizzlies did well to take down the eight-seed with consecutive wins in the play-in tournament, including Friday's upset win over the Warriors in San Francisco. Here, however, I look for them to get a bit of a reality check against the well-rested Jazz. Utah has been positively dominant here at home this season, posting a 31-5 record while outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game. While the Grizzlies were battling it out in a pair of close games against the Spurs and Grizzlies the Jazz were at home resting, and getting healthier with both Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley expected to play in Sunday's playoff-opener. Mitchell obviously gives the Jazz a major boost. Even without him, they still put up gawdy offensive numbers, scoring more than 120 points in four of their final seven games down the stretch. While Memphis has been locked in defensively this will undoubtedly be a difficult challenge against a Jazz squad that averages over 117 points per game and shoots better than 47% from the field at home this season. I'm concerned that the Grizzlies offense might not be able to keep pace here considering they check in having shot 44.4% or worse from the field in each of their last four contests. Take Utah (10*). |
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05-23-21 | Bruins v. Capitals +1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -222 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington +1.5 goals over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. This has been a tighter series than the 3-1 advantage for the Bruins would indicate. Facing elimination on Sunday night at home, I certainly expect the Capitals to give Boston all it can handle. Note that this marks the first time the Capitals have lost three games in a row since a four-game losing streak - their longest of the season - back in early February. Note that the Bruins are 2-8 on the road after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games this season, averaging just 2.1 goals and outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that situation. They also check in just 6-9 off a win by three goals or more this season. The Capitals, meanwhile, have allowed just 2.2 goals per game the last 15 times they've been at home facing elmination in a playoff game, outscored by just 0.1 goals in that situation. Washington has averaged a whopping 4.3 goals per game and outscored opponents by 1.2 goals on average after allowing three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons. Finally, I'll point out that the Caps are 5-4 in their last nine meetings with the Bruins here on home ice and despite dropping three of the first four games in this series have gone 10-9 in the last 19 meetings overall. Take Washington +1.5 goals (9*). |
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05-22-21 | Storm -6 v. Wings | Top | 100-97 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
WNBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Saturday. Dallas exploded for 94 points in its season-opening rout of Los Angeles last Friday night but should find the going much tougher as it returns home to host a Seattle squad that already appears to be in midseason form. The Storm are off to a 2-1 start with their lone loss coming in the second of a two-game set against Las Vegas. We should see the Seattle offense go off in this game as it faces a below-average Dallas defense that is missing a number of key cogs including two-way star Allisha Gray on Saturday. Arike Ogunbowale is an all-world talent for the Wings but she can't carry the team all on her own. I believe secondary scoring could be an issue moving forward with Gray sidelined as well as Satou Sabally. Seattle has taken five straight meetings in this series, going 4-1 ATS along the way. That includes a pair of double-digit wins in the bubble last summer. Note that the Storm check in an impressive 23-10 ATS after giving up 75 points or more in their last game over the last three seasons and 20-10 ATS against division opponents over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by more than 10 points per game in the latter situation. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 goals over Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Friday. This series looks like it's over by all accounts after consecutive lopsided victories by the Avs but with the scene shifting to St. Louis for Game 3 I do look for the Blues to put up a fight. Note that Colorado is just 21-30 when playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in its last game over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, St. Louis checks in 11-2 when playing at home off consecutive losses by three goals or more, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. The Blues have more than held their own here at home against the Avalanche over the last three seasons, taking six of the last eight meetings. We'll grab the insurance goal with St. Louis here as the price warrants such a play, noting the Avs managed just one win by more than a single goal in four tries here in St. Louis this season. Take St. Louis +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-20-21 | Panthers +1.5 v. Lightning | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 6:35 pm et on Thursday. While the Lightning certainly have a stangle-hold on this series up 2-0 heading back home, I don't expect the Panthers to simply roll over. They know they can skate with the Lightning here in Tampa, having split four meetings here this season, going 3-1 when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line. Florida has been a quality road team this season, checking in 17-11 while averaging 3.4 goals per game. The Panthers have gone 10-1 when revenging a loss where they scored one goal or less this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that spot. They're also 14-4 after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games and 8-1 after being held to a goal or less in their previous contest this season. Going back over the last two seasons, Florida has averaged a whopping 4.5 goals per game after being held to a goal or less in its previous game. On the flip side, the Panthers have done a good job tightening things up when heading on the road off a home loss over the last two seasons, allowing just 2.6 goals per game in the 26 times that situation has come up. We'll grab the insurance goal here out of respect for the Lightning but certainly expect Florida to show some fight. Take Florida +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-19-21 | White Sox v. Twins +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota +1.5 runs over Chicago at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. It could certainly be argued that this game means a little more to the Twins than it does to the White Sox. Minnesota is wrapping up a six-game homestand and needs a victory today to salvage a 3-3 record. Meanwhile, the White Sox are sitting comfortably atop the A.L. Central standings and haven't lost consecutive games since April 15th and 17th. I'll grab the insurance run with the Twins here, as I don't think we'll see Chicago score enough to cover the run-line in this spot. The White Sox have scored four runs or less in six of their last seven games and are without one of their best hitters in Jose Abreu for this series. By contrast, Minnesota has scored four runs or more in four straight games, crossing the plate 20 times over that stretch. Note that Chicago is averaging just 3.9 runs per game in 16 daytime games this season. Meanwhile, Minnesota has gone a miserable 8-16 in day games despite averaging 5.1 runs per game. Expect some positive regression to the mean record-wise in that department for the Twins moving forward. Lucas Giolito gets the start for Chicago on Wednesday. The Twins faced him three times last season and knocked him around for 12 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings of work. Giolito has certainly been off of his game this season, posting a 7.02 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four road starts. Twins starter Matt Shoemaker has been just as shaky although there is reason for encouragement after he worked six innings for the first time since his 2021 debut last time out against Oakland, and two starts back tossed five shutout innings against the Tigers. Shoemaker should bring some confidence to the table against the White Sox having allowed just six earned runs over his last three starts against them, spanning 20 1/3 innings. Chicago does own a slight bullpen edge in this matchup but it's worth noting that the Sox 'pen has compiled a collective ERA north of five in day games this season. Take Minnesota +1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Aces +1 v. Storm | 96-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas over Seattle at 10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in Saturday's matchup between these two elite WNBA squads - a game Seattle won by a 97-83 score. The Storm turned in a near-perfect performance in that one, shooting 51% from the field and knocking down 12-of-27 (44%) of their three-point attempts. Here, I look for Las Vegas to answer back and finally exact some revenge after dropping four straight meetings in the series going back to last year's WNBA Finals. The Aces are certainly comfortable playing an up-tempo style, which they should be afforded once again on Tuesday night. Their downfall on Saturday was their inability to knock down outside shots, connecting on just 3-of-12 three-point attempts. Look for more of those shots to start falling on Tuesday as they earn a split in this two-game set in the Pacific Northwest, noting that Seattle is 10-25 ATS when coming off an upset win as a home underdog, outscored by an average margin of 7.4 points. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Wizards v. Celtics -2 | 100-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Washington at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. I simply feel this is a short line to back the Celtics here at home as they try to make amends for what has been a very disappointing season and earn their way into the playoffs with a victory here on Tuesday night. Boston does check in sporting a 21-15 home record and will have its full compliment of players back in the lineup, with the exception of Jaylen Brown, after missing a number of key starters in its last couple of regular season games. The Wizards have expended a ton of energy just to get to this point and I can't help but feel there's a bit of an exhale here, knowing they have two chances to advance given this is the 7-8 matchup in the East. Note that the Wiz are just 15-21 on the road this season, just 5-13 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3, outscored by an average margin of 5.9 points in that situation this season. They're also just 18-34 ATS on the road following an ATS loss over the last three seasons while Boston checks in 8-1 ATS after losing four of its last five games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 6.0 points per game in that spot. The C's have also won four straight meetings against the Wizards here in Boston. Take Boston (9*). |
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05-18-21 | Lynx -1.5 v. Liberty | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over New York at 7 pm et on Tuesday. New York is off to a perfect 2-0 start to the season but is fortunate to have faced the lowly Indiana Fever twice, and it's worth noting it needed a last-second game-winning shot from Sabrina Ionescu to secure one of those victories. Minnesota suffered a narrow two-point loss in its home-opener against Phoenix but should bounce back here against a weaker opponent. Keep in mind, the Lynx have taken four of their last five meetings with the Liberty, sweeping last year's two matchups by 26 and 30-point margins. Minnesota is a perennial WNBA title contender and should be right there in the conversation this season with the addition of Kayla McBride, who contributed 17 points in the season-opener. Of course the Lynx will be even stronger once they get Napheesa Collier back from quarantine later this week but for now, I believe this is a matchup they can handle with the Liberty missing a number of key players as well. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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05-14-21 | Sun -2.5 v. Dream | Top | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I actually like the prospects of both of these teams but Connecticut is the squad that has legitimate championship aspirations, even if the odds are long on the Sun reaching that pinnacle for the first time in franchise history. The Sun return most of their roster from a year ago - a team that got off to a slow start before eventually rounding into form and going on a deep playoff run. While the Sun won't have Alyssa or Jasmine Thomas for Friday's opener, they do have Jonquel Jones back after she opted-out of the 2020 campaign, and should also have the services of Briann January (for limited minutes at least) after there was some question whether she would be able to start the season due to Covid quarantine. Losing Alyssa Thomas for the season to a torn achilles was obviously a major blow, but I do feel the Sun have the depth to stay competitive, especially if rookie DiJonai Carrington can exceed (or even just meet) expectations following an impressive training camp. Look out for Brionna Jones as well as she took on a bigger role in Jonquel Jones' absence last season and comes off an incredible championship season in the Czech Republic League. Atlanta has the potential to improve considerably following its second consecutive losing season but I'm not sure we're going to see it all work right out of the gate. The Dream will be without Tiffany Hayes and Cheyenne Parker for their opener, which means they'll rely heavily on sophomore guard Chennedy Carter and third-overall draft pick Aari MacDonald. Head coach Nicki Collen bolted for Baylor on short notice, leaving the team under the guidance of interim coach Mike Petersen. With a lot of new pieces to work with, it will likely take some time to figure things out. The potential is there for the Dream to be one of the entertaining teams in the league with a guard-heavy rotation, but on night one of the regular season, I expect them to fall short against a more seasoned Sun squad. Take Connecticut (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Canucks +1.5 v. Flames | 1-4 | Loss | -180 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vancouver +1.5 goals over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We won by fading the Canucks last time out as they suffered a 5-0 wipeout at the hands of the Jets in Winnipeg on Tuesday night. Here, I'll switch gears and back Vancouver with an insurance goal as it continues its somewhat tedious stretch to the finish line on Thursday night in Calgary. Since dropping the first three meetings in lopsided fashion this season, the Canucks have answered back going 2-1 in their last three matchups with the Flames, with the lone defeat coming by a single goal. Here, we find the Canucks having gone 18-12 following a shutout loss under the guidance of head coach Travis Green, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 goals in that situation. Calgary, meanwhile, checks in just 7-16 when coming off a win by three goals or more over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that spot. The Flames are also a miserable 3-10 after scoring four goals or more in their previous game this season, outscored by 1.4 goals on average in that situation. Neither team has much to play for at this point and I believe we're getting a reasonable price to back the Canucks with an extra goal in our back pocket. Take Vancouver +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Magic v. Hawks -13 | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Hawks managed to wrap up a two-game sweep of the Wizards at home last night although it took a big fourth quarter rally to do so. Atlanta certainly didn't bring its 'A' game, perhaps a product of already having taken care of Washington on two previous occasions this season. The Hawks enter this game having shot better than 50% from the field in five of their last six games and they should absolutely go off against a Magic squad that is simply playing out the string at this point. Orlando has been bullied lately, allowing three of its last four opponents to shoot 48.5% or better while giving up 51 or more rebounds in three straight contests entering tonight's game. Last time out the Magic actually held the Bucks to 42.6% shooting but still lost by 12 points (they did manage to cover the spread). The Magic simply can't match the Hawks depth, as we saw in the most recent meeting, when Atlanta cruised to a 16-point win on April 20th. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
A.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over New York at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Rays as they try to avoid the series sweep at the hands of the Yankees on Thursday night. Tampa Bay has run into a couple of hot pitchers over the last two nights, unable to get anything going against Jordan Montgomery and Gerrit Cole. Here, it will benefit from facing what I would consider the weak link in the Yankees rotation in Jameson Taillon. The Yanks are just 2-4 with Taillon on the hill this season and he's posted an ugly 10.56 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in two road starts - both losses. We did see Taillon work into the seventh inning in his most recent start, but that was at home against the light-hitting Nationals and New York still lost the game 11-4 (we won with the underdog Nats in that game). Crafty veteran Rich Hill will take the ball for the Rays tonight. After a rough start to the season he has righted the ship over his last three starts, allowing just two earned runs on five hits over 15 innings of work. Hill has already guided the Rays to a victory against the Yankees this season, 10-5 back on April 9th. Hill's 4.66 home ERA is slightly misleading as he's recorded a stellar 0.98 WHIP here at Tropicana Field. Despite losing the first two games in this series, Tampa Bay is still 12-9 at home against New York over the last three seasons, and 5-3 overall against the Yankees here in 2021. I'll grab the insurance run with the Rays here as the very reasonable price warrants such a play. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-12-21 | Wild v. Blues +1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 goals over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. We can take advantage of a 'wrong team being favored' situation here in my opinion (at the time of writing anyway) as we're able to grab an insurance run with the enigmatic Blues on home ice in a spot where I do expect them to play well. Note that for as inconsistent as St. Louis has been, it does check in 14-2 over its last 16 games when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line. I've generally preferred to back the Blues off a win under head coach Craig Berube as they've fared much better in that spot than trying to regroup off a loss. Note that St. Louis is 44-24 the last 68 times it has come off a win, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition 0.8 goals on average. Better still, the Blues are 23-9 when coming off a one-goal win over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, Minnesota has gone just 1-3 when hitting the road off of consecutive home victories this season, as is the case here. The Wild have allowed a whopping 3.6 goals per game after winning three of their last four games this season, outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. The Blues are 3-2 in the last five meetings between these two teams here in St. Louis and have taken eight of the last 13 matchups overall in this series. Also note that four of six meetings this season have been decided by a single goal and of the two that weren't, one was played in Minnesota and the other went St. Louis' way by a 9-1 score. Take St. Louis +1.5 goals (9*). |
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05-12-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -6 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This is a brutal spot for the Wizards as they play a second straight game in Atlanta (following an off day yesterday) on the heels of a momentum-killing one-point loss here on Monday (note they outscored the Hawks by 16 points and scored 45 points in the fourth quarter, only to fall one point short). Washington has been battling hard to earn a spot in the NBA Play-in Tournament but how bad do they really want it apart from Russell Westbrook who continues to stuff the statsheet and chase individual records? The Hawks have won eight straight games here at home with the first seven of those victories coming by 12, 16, 15, 7, 11, 9 and 32-point margins prior to Monday's close call. Atlanta is in an excellent spot here having gone 8-1 ATS when playing at home off a home win this season, outscoring the opposition by 9.4 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in allowing a whopping 122 points per game when playing with double-revenge, as is the case here after dropping the previous two meetings this season. The Wizards have been involved in so many tightly-contested games lately - I simply expect them to run out of gas in this spot. Keep in mind, Bradley Beal remains sidelined with a hamstring injury while the Hawks are as healthy as they've been in quite some time after dealing with numerous key injuries over the course of the season. The Hawks are a good defensive team that hasn't played like it over the last couple of games but I look for them to turn in a solid performance in that department here, noting they have held opponents to 45.6% shooting on their home floor this season. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Thunder v. Warriors -14 | Top | 97-136 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Oklahoma City at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors have already crushed the Thunder twice this season including two nights ago as they rolled to a 21-point victory. I don't mind laying all the points with the Warriors here as they check in playing phenomenal defensive basketball having held four straight opponents to 43.3% or worse shooting. They won three of those four games, with all three victories coming by at least 15 points. The Thunder are simply playing out the string at this point and have managed to shoot better than 40.9% just once over their last five contests. While they'll be looking for quick revenge here, no more so than last time out as they were looking to avenge an even more lopsided 147-109 loss at home back on April 14th. The fact is, the Thunder are overmatched against most opponents right now and the Warriors aren't likely to sleepwalk through this one as they continue to fight for playoff positioning in a crowded Western Conference. Note that the SU winner has also covered the spread in 40 of the Warriors last 41 games overall. I look for that trend to continue tonight. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Pelicans v. 76ers -9.5 | 107-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Pelicans in their last game as they rallied to defeat the Warriors and split a two-game set at home. New Orleans checks in 5-1 ATS over its last six games but let's face it, this team isn't really going anywhere sitting six games under .500 in 11th place in the Western Conference. With Brandon Ingram sidelined and Zion Williamson having aggravated an injury to his hand last time out, I could certainly see them folding the tent should they find themselves trailing by any considerable margin in the fourth quarter tonight. Philadelphia has been pouring it on lately, winning six straight games, scoring more than 120 points in four of those contests. The 76ers and healthy and firing on all cylinders, having shot better than 53% from the field in four of their last six games while holding the opposition to 45.2% or worse shooting in all six of those contests. I don't expect any sort of letdown from Philadelphia here after it lost by seven points on the road against New Orleans (as a five-point favorite) in the last matchup between these two teams less than a month ago. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Avalanche v. Sharks +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Avs have now posted three straight wins over the Sharks with the last two coming by single-goal margins. The Sharks know they can skate with the Avs and have actually taken six of the last 10 meetings between these two teams here in San Jose. I'm anticipating another tightly-contested affair on Wednesday night as the Avs and Sharks wrap up a four-game set. Note that Colorado finds itself in what has been a difficult spot this season as it has gone 1-5 when playing on the road off a road win in which it scored at least four games this season. Somewhat inexplicably, the Avs have given up 5.0 goals per game and been outscored by 1.8 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Sharks check in having gone 10-5 after losing three of their last four games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that spot. While the Sharks are simply playing out the string at this point, they should be eager to turn things around in the midst of a five-game homestand to wrap up the season. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | 3-6 | Loss | -154 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros couldn't contend with the Yankees (or their fans) last night, falling in blowout fashion in the series-opener. I do look for Houston to bounce back on Wednesday, however, as they send Luis Garcia to the hill against Jordan Montgomery. Garcia has been a bit of a mystery to opposing hitters during his young big league career, holding them to a collective .184 batting average in 32 1/3 innings of work. Here this season he's made five appearances, three of them starts, and has posted a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Garcia has recorded a 34.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats not to mention better than MLB average strikeout and walk percentages. Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery has been good but certainly not great during the early going this season. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up while he's also posted an inflated 4.6% home run percentage here in 2021. While the Yankees bullpen has been terrific, I'm confident the Astros can scratch together enough offense against Montgomery to keep this one close at the very least. Take Houston +1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Oilers v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -141 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Oilers took the first game in this two-game set in Vancouver by a 5-3 score last night. The Canucks have now dropped five games in a row although four of those five losses came on the road. 12 of their 19 victories have come on home ice this season where they've been outscored by an average margin of just 0.2 goals. Note that Edmonton checks in 0-5 when coming off consecutive wins by two goals or more this season, as is the case here, outscored by 2.2 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Canucks have gone 16-9 when coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average of 0.9 goals in that spot. As well as the Oilers have been playing, they haven't strung together three consecutive victories since March 17th to 20th. With this the second game of four in a row against Edmonton, look for the Canucks to show some push back on Tuesday night. We'll grab the insurance goal as the price warrants such a play. Take Vancouver +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Warriors v. Pelicans -2.5 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Golden State at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Warriors took the first game of this two-game set in New Orleans last night but I like the Pelicans to bounce back here on Tuesday. Note that New Orleans has outscored the opposition by 3.2 points on average when coming off an upset loss as a favorite this season. The Pelicans also check in averaging 119.3 points per game when revenging a double-digit loss this season. The Warriors are just 10-22 ATS when playing the second of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 4.7 points in that spot. They're also just 3-11 ATS after posting consecutive wins this season, outscored by 7.3 points per game in that situation. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Twins | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a tight ball game between these two teams in last night's series-opener as the Twins prevailed by a 6-5 score. I expect another close game on Tuesday with the Rangers having a good shot at evening the series with Kyle Gibson on the hill. Gibson had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 2.16 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through six starts, spanning 33 1/3 innings of work. The former Twin hasn't been doing it with smoke and mirrors either. He's recorded a 32.3% hard-hit ball percentage and a 53.1% ground ball percentage. While we're bound to see some regression over time, I do think he's well-positioned to turn in another fine outing on Tuesday. J.A. Happ will counter for Minnesota. He had a miserable spring but has posted a 1.96 ERA and 0.83 WHIP through four regular season outings. I do think there's some reason for concern, however. Note that Happ has recorded a 40.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both worse than the MLB average. His 40.3% fly ball percentage doesn't really line up with his 2.3% home run percentage, noting that he's been worse than the MLB average over the course of his career in terms of home run rate. With all of that said, he's held opposing hitters to a collective .150 batting average - I'm expecting some considerable regression in that department moving forward. While the Rangers are 13-16 overall, they've gone 9-4 against left-handed starters, outscoring the opposition by 1.0 run per game on average. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets are coming off consecutive losses, including a three-point setback in a poor all around performance here in Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon. I look for Brooklyn to answer back positively here on Tuesday as it finds itself in what I would consider a smash spot offensively after being held to 42.1% and 42.7% shooting in its last two games. Keep in mind, the Nets had shot 48.2% or better in seven of its previous 11 contests, even with what seems like a merry-go-round rotation on any given night. The Nets are averaging north of 119 points per game on an impressive 49.3% shooting on the road this season. Of course, the Bucks have been every bit as good offensively here at home this season and enter this game off consecutive victories. They haven't won three games in a row since April 11th to 15th, however, going just 5-4 SU and ATS since. They're certainly not invincible here at home, having lost five games outright here in Milwaukee since March 26th. Note that the Nets are 34-16 ATS when on the road revenging a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 points on average in that situation. Milwaukee checks in a miserable 7-17 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season, as is the case here. The Bucks are also just 29-49 ATS when coming off a home win by three points or less the last 78 times that situation has come up. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks -1 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Portland at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Hawks are well-positioned to go on a late season run after a brief lull on the road last week. Trae Young returned to the lineup two games back and proceeded to pour in 30+ points in both contests. Now Atlanta draws a tough matchup with the surging Blazers on Monday with Portland coming off its fourth straight road win to open its current trip last night in Boston. I believe the Hawks will be up to the challenge in this revenge spot after suffering a 112-106 loss in Portland back in mid-January. Note that the last time these two teams met here in Atlanta, the Hawks prevailed by a 129-117 score last February. The Hawks shook off a three-game losing streak to deliver a 108-97 win over the Bulls on Saturday. They've scored just 104 and 108 points since Trae Young returned to the lineup but an offensive outburst is coming, and could very well come against a road-weary Blazers squad on Monday. Note that Portland allows 114.9 points per game on 47.6% shooting on the road this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in 13-5 ATS as a home favorite this season, allowing just 104.3 points per game in that situation. The Hawks have put together a terrific stretch of defensive basketball here at home lately, allowing 96, 103, 104 and 97 points in their last four home games - all victories. Note that Atlanta is 26-14 ATS the last 40 times it has played at home revenging a loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 points, which is more encouraging when you consider that trend goes back two seasons, when the Hawks were a far weaker team than they are this year. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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05-02-21 | Raptors v. Lakers -7 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Toronto at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. Bettors were quick to get behind the Lakers on Friday night as Lebron James made a surprising return and Los Angeles closed as an 11.5-point favorite. Things didn't go well, however, as the Lakers ultimately fell by four points against the Kings. I expect a better performance from the Lakers here as they look to regain their footing and snap their two-game skid before a tougher matchup against the Nuggets tomorrow night. It actually wasn't that bad of a game from Los Angeles on Friday as it shot 50% from the field and held Sacramento to 45.3% shooting. It was a tough scheduling spot in the first place, given the Lakers were returning home on just one day rest and across three time zones following a four-game road trip. The Raptors have opened their current trip with consecutive losses in Denver and Utah. Toronto is simply playing out the string at this point and doesn't look all that interested in winning games, resting Kyle Lowry last night. I have no doubt the Raps will get up for this game on Sunday - I'm just not convinced they can match the Lakers hunger in this spot. Note that Toronto has allowed three straight opponents to shoot better than 47% from the field and things don't figure to get any easier here, playing on no rest after consecutive games in altitude. There's been plenty of talk after Lebron James indicated following Friday's game that he may never again be 100% healthy. That's just talk. If he's in the lineup on Sunday, he'll play well. If he's not, I still like the Lakers at a reasonable price against a road-weary Raptors squad playing their sixth game in the last nine nights, in five different cities (by contrast the Lakers are playing just their fifth game over that stretch, in four different cities). Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Pistons v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 94-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'm not sure the average bettor realizes how dire the Pistons injury situation is right now. Mason Plumlee, Jerami Grant and Cory Joseph have all been ruled out for Saturday's game (among many others) while Hamidou Diallo, who has given them good minutes and production off the bench, is now listed as doubtful as well. Detroit hung around for a while against an undermanned Mavs squad on Thursday (Luka Doncic missed that game) but still fell by double-digits, despite shooting better than 50% from the field. Here, the Pistons will run into a Hornets squad that should certainly be in a foul mood following consecutive losses, as they continue to fight for a playoff spot in the East. Charlotte is of course dealing with injury issues of its own but it does appear Malik Monk and LaMelo Ball are at least close to returning, which should give the Hornets a bit of an emotional boost as they continue to push forward. Note that Charlotte checks in 16-7 ATS after losing two of its last three games this season and owns a 31-17 ATS mark following consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons. There are plenty of trends supporting the Pistons here, and that certainly factors into the relatively short pointspread. But the fact is, Detroit has now dropped three of its last four games ATS with its lone victory over that stretch coming against a banged-up Hawks squad that was in letdown mode following a home upset win over the Bucks two nights earlier. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies -10.5 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Grizzlies returned home from a long, successful road trip that ended with a thud (a blowout loss in Denver) and couldn't regain their footing in a blowout loss at the hands of the Blazers, who were in a quick revenge spot, two nights ago. Here, I expect Memphis to fare much better as it draws a favorable matchup against the lowly Magic. Orlando is actually coming off a rare win but that came against the Cavs. The Magic have now won consecutive games ATS but I think that's about as much as we can expect from this team that's simply playing out the string at this point. Orlando certainly isn't looking to force the issue down the stretch, taking a cautious approach with both Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross, who are nursing minor injuries but likely to sit again on Friday. The Grizzlies were actually favored against the Blazers two nights ago but probably shouldn't have been (hindsight is 20/20 of course) as they were playing on just one day of rest following an extremely difficult seven-game road trip. We should see the Grizz come out with much fresher legs tonight and that should result in a far better shooting performance after they were held to 42% shooting against Portland. The Magic held the Cavs to 40.2% shooting last time out but check in allowing 118.8 points per game when playing in a game with a posted total 220 points or higher, as is the case here. The Grizzlies have shown the ability to tighten things up following a bad loss, allowing just 107.9 points per game after a double-digit home loss over the last two seasons. They should be able to get loose in this one against a Magic squad that prior to their last game had allowed five of their last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three consecutive opponents shoot 54% or better. The Magic took the most recent meeting in this series but that was last March. We haven't got a real picture of just how wide the gap has grown between these two squads here in 2021 but we should see it in the front half of this home-and-home series on Friday night. Take Memphis (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Division Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the insurance run with what I consider to be the superior team in this matchup (for now at least) as the Twins continue to deal with some key absences early in the season and struggle to find their footing. Brady Singer will take the ball for Kansas City. He's made some nice progress over his rookie campaign, which was impressive in its own right. Singer has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance this season, recording a 33.9% hard-hit ball percentage while also posting a ground ball percentage a shade over 55% after recording a 53.7% in that department last season. His walks are down while his strikeouts are up compared to last year and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .210 batting average. Michael Pineda is off to an up and down start to the campaign and draws a tough Royals lineup here. Pineda has once again had a tough time keeping the ball down, leading to a 32.3% fly ball percentage and a 4.6% home run percentage in the early going this season. He has held opposing hitters to a .193 batting average but we can certainly anticipate some regression to the mean in that department as he owns a career .248 opponents BA, not posting a number lower than that since way back in 2014. With a 43.5% hard-hit ball percentage and an exit velocity off opposing bats nearly 90 mph, look for the Royals to enjoy a solid night at the plate and keep this one within arm's reach at the very least. Take Kansas City +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Pelicans -9 v. Thunder | Top | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans may appear to be in a tough situation on paper as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a two-point loss in Denver last night. However, they're actually in the same three-in-four situation as the Thunder and catch Oklahoma City in a letdown spot off an upset win in Boston two nights ago - the team's first victory since back on March 31st against the Raptors. In order to secure that win, the Thunder needed to shoot better than 48% from the field - their best shooting performance since April 10th against the 76ers (a game they lost by 24 points). Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is averaging just 106.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting here at home this season. Playing at a much quicker pace lately they can certainly turn this into a track meet but that should only serve to stretch out the margin. The Pelicans are bringing the proper level of intensity to the floor every night, having shot 47.1% or better from the field in five straight games, shooting north of 53% in three of those contests. Last night's game ended a streak of three straight contests holding their opposition to 43.6% shooting or worse. Note that the Pelicans check in ranked eighth in the league in opponents effective field goal percentage over their last three games. They rank tops in the league in floor percentage this season. Oklahoma City hasn't fared well as a home underdog this season, going 9-20 ATS, outscored by 12 points on average. They're also 3-11 ATS the last 14 times they've come off a non-conference game, outscored by an average margin of 15.9 points, and that's exacerbated further by the fact that they're in for an obvious letdown off the win over what seemed to be a disinterested Celtics team. This wouldn't appear to be an easy game for the Pelicans to get up for until you realize that Oklahoma City took the last meeting in this series by a single point as an eight-point underdog in New Orleans back on January 6th. The Pelicans may have overlooked the Thunder in that one after they took the first meeting here on this floor by 33 points on December 31st. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Boston at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Two clubs heading in opposite directions will meet on Thursday night in Texas as the Red Sox travel from New York to face the Rangers, who just wrapped up a series with the division-rival Angels. Boston enters riding a three-game winning streak thanks to some outstanding pitching. Here, I'm not sure they'll get such a positive performance from former Ranger Martin Perez. Opponents are hitting .290 against Perez this season, bumping his career opponents batting average all the way up to .283 - 31 points higher than the MLB average. His walk rate is up again after a miserable 2020 campaign in that department, while his strikeout rate remains well below the MLB average. He has always done a fairly good job of keeping opposing hitters off balance and limiting his hard-hit ball percentage but his ability to induce ground balls has dropped off considerably in recent years. So far this season he has recorded a 38.2% ground ball percentage - nearly 6% lower than the MLB average. Kyle Gibson will counter for Texas. He's enjoying a resurgence of sorts, building off an encouraging spring to post a 2.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through his first five regular season outings. Gibson has always been a good ground ball pitcher and he's on track for another solid year in that department having recorded a 53.2% ground ball percentage through 27 1/3 innings of work. Gibson's fly ball percentage is all the way down south of 14% so it's no surprise that he's yet to allow a home run this season. Also note that Gibson's strikeouts are up and his walks are down compared to last season and he's held opponents to a .235 collective batting average. While he won't be able to keep it up forever, I do like his chances of keeping the Rangers in the game in a bounce-back spot here tonight. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 2-5 | Loss | -204 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado +1.5 goals over Vegas at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. It's not often I'll make a play in this price range but I actually feel the price could be even higher with the Avs grabbing a goal-and-a-half in Las Vegas on Wednesday night. Colorado is of course coming off consecutive losses in St. Louis including an ugly 4-1 setback on Monday. The Avs already appeared to have one foot on the plane after falling behind big in that one, perhaps rightfully so as they were winding down a long four-game set against the Blues. I look for a much sharper effort from the Avs here, noting they've gone 15-5 when playing on the road off a loss by three goals or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. We've also seen the Avs go 25-8 the last 33 times they've been seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 1.6 goals per game in that spot. Vegas enters this game riding a nine-game winning streak but it has done so by beating up on the likes of Los Angeles, Anaheim and San Jose - three non-playoff teams - over its last eight contests. Note that Colorado has held its own here in Vegas, going 4-3 over the last seven meetings. Take Colorado +1.5 goals (9*). |
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04-27-21 | Lightning v. Blackhawks +1.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -147 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the insurance goal with the Blackhawks here as the situation sets up well for them to keep pace with the Lightning on home ice. Note that Tampa Bay is just 3-7 in its last 10 games following a one-goal victory, allowing 3.8 goals per game and outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that situation. Worse still, the Bolts are 1-5 in their last six games off an overtime win, allowing 4.3 goals per game and outscored by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are 10-2 at home off a loss against a division opponent this season, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. They're also a solid 24-18 in their last 42 games after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, allowing 2.8 goals per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.1 goals (only notable due to the fact we're grabbing the +1.5 here) in that situation. Finally, it's worth mentioning that Chicago has gone 19-8 when playing at home off a loss by two or more goals over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. Tampa has taken three straight meetings in this series by multiple goals but this is a tough one-game road trip with the Blackhawks sitting at home well rested following three days off. Take Chicago +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Thunder v. Celtics -11.5 | 119-115 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Oklahoma City at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We haven't faded Oklahoma City much during its current 3-14-1 ATS slide but I will do so on Tuesday as the Thunder limp into Boston following back-to-back losses by 20+ points. Boston is expected to be without Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum but I don't expect it to roll over in their absence. The Celtics are coming off an 0-2 trip to Brooklyn and Charlotte which included an ugly 21-point rout at the hands of the Hornets on Sunday afternoon. Note that Boston checks in a perfect 9-0 ATS the last nine times it has come off a double-digit road loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by a whopping average margin of 17.2 points in that situation. The C's average north of 125 points per game in that spot and should be able to feast on a Thunder squad that have allowed their last two opponents to shoot 51.6% and 54.7% from the field. Despite Sunday's poor showing, the Celtics are fairly locked-in defensively, having held five of their last eight opponents to 45.6% or worse shooting. Note that Oklahoma City averages just 94 points and loses by an average margin of 17.2 points when playing on the road after giving up 120 points or more this season. The Celtics took the first matchup in this series this season by 17 points in Oklahoma City back on March 27th and I expect a similar outcome here. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Chelsea +0.5 v. Real Madrid | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chelsea +0.5 goals over Real Madrid at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Note: I'm recommending playing this at +0.5 goals which may be an alternate goal-line at your book. I get the feeling many bettors feel that backing Real Madrid in the first leg of this Champions League semi-final matchup will serve as a safe investment given the fact that Los Blancos haven't lost a match since January (they're riding a 17-game unbeaten streak). Of course, Real Madrid also has the Champions League pedigree with 13 all-time wins and has the benefit of playing at home. That's not to mention the fact that Real will have Eden Hazard back on the pitch after he returned and played 30 minutes in its last match. However, I don't expect Chelsea to simply roll over. Yes, the Blues have one eye on the Premier League, where they sit fourth in the table by the slimmest of margins but there's no question they'll have little trouble getting up for this trip to Spain to face a true world football power. While Real Madrid has Hazard at possibly less than 100% health and will be without Sergio Ramos as he continues to work his way back from injury, Chelsea has a full squad for this semi-final opener. The Blues certainly weren't happy with their performance in their last Champions League match as they lost 1-0 against Porto on home soil (after taking the first leg 2-0 in Sevilla to hold on for a 2-1 aggregate victory). They'll be looking to make amends here and while Real Madrid serves as an extremely difficult squad to break down, I expect the Blues to keep pace for the full 90+ minutes. Take Chelsea +0.5 goals (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Grizzlies +4 v. Nuggets | 96-120 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. This would appear to be a pretty obvious fade spot for the Grizzlies as they wrap up a long, successful seven-game road trip with a second stop in Denver in less than a week. However, the Grizz have done nothing but impress and off another big performance in a win over the Blazers yesterday, I look for them to keep it rolling on Monday. While this is certainly a tough back-to-back spot for Memphis, it is worth noting that it managed its starters minutes well in yesterday's game, with no one playing more than 30 minutes. Jonas Valanciunas just returned yesterday after missing time due to a concussion so he should have fresh legs for this one. The Grizz know they can hang with the Nuggets having taken Denver to overtime (without Valanciunas and Dillon Brooks) just last week. Meanwhile, Denver was already without Jamal Murray and is now missing key secondary scorer Will Barton as well. The Nuggets shot the lights out in a lopsided win over the lowly Rockets on Saturday but that actually sets them up poorly here, noting they've gone 6-17 ATS the last 23 times they've come off a 55% or better shooting performance, outscored by an average margin of 4.3 points in that spot. They're also just 23-38 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.5 points on average in that situation. The Grizzlies are quite simply the hottest bet in the league and locked in defensively right now, having held their last three opponents to 45.2%, 47.9% and 37.1% shooting. Take Memphis (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +6.5 | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. Most have written off the Hawks with Trae Young out for an indefinite period with an ankle injury. However, Atlanta thrived in its first game without its superstar, delivering a 118-103 win over the Heat on Friday. Here, the Hawks catch the Bucks in a somewhat favorable spot with Milwaukee its second of back-to-back games after wrapping up a two-game sweep of the 76ers with a blowout win yesterday afternoon. While the Hawks lost Young, they did recently get Danilo Gallinari back from injury while Clint Capela could also return on Sunday, although I'm making this play assuming he can't go. The Bucks shot the lights out in the last two games against an undermanned 76ers squad but prior to that they had shot worse than 49% from the field in seven straight games. Note that they're just 18-32 ATS when on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just 3.3 points in that spot. They hadn't been playing tough defense at all prior to yesterday's win and certainly caught a big break in that one with the Sixers missing both Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid in what amounted to a throwaway game for Philadelphia. The Hawks have been an underrated defensive team all season and check in having held 11 of their last 13 opponents to worse than 49% shooting. They're allowing just 110 points per game on 45.4% shooting at home this season. The Hawks will have revenge on their minds in this one having dropped both previous meetings against the Bucks this season, including a 120-109 setback in a poor all-around showing at home on April 15th. Note that the Hawks are 25-14 ATS at home revenging a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 points on average in that situation. Better still, they're 18-7 ATS when at home revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 3.7 points. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Cavs v. Wizards -9.5 | Top | 110-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Wizards are absolutely rolling right now, taking full advantage of a favorable schedule to reel off seven straight wins, going 6-0-1 ATS along the way. I expect them to keep it rolling against the lowly, undermanned Cavs on Sunday. Cleveland was already in for a bit of a letdown after shooting better than 51% in each of its last two games, but now will be without its top offensive threat in Collin Sexton due to a concussion. While I'm a fan of Darius Garland, the budding star isn't capable of shouldering the entire load with a poor supporting cast around him. Keep in mind, the Cavs were already without Taurean Prince, who had been giving them solid minutes and offensive production before going down to injury last week. The Wizards certainly haven't been playing down to the level of competition lately, delivering blowout wins against the Kings, Pistons and Thunder (twice) during their current winning streak. Note that the Wizards are an excellent positive momentum play having gone 8-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win this season. Meanwhile, the Cavs are a miserable 9-19 ATS as a road underdog this season, outscored by an average margin of 10.9 points. Washington is absolutely locked in defensively right now, having held its last five opponents to 43.4% or worse shooting - an incredible stretch of defensive dominance by today's NBA standards. This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season after the Cavs took a 113-108 decision against a much different Wizards squad here in Washington last February. Take Washington (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Royals v. Tigers +1.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over Kansas City at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Royals have had their way with the Tigers in this series, adding to Detroit's misery in the midst of a 1-8 slide. I'll back the Tigers with an insurance run on Sunday, however, as they look to salvage the final game in this series. Danny Duffy will get the start for Kansas City. After a shaky three-year stretch from 2018-2020, he's pitched well in the early going this season, at least as far as his 0.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP would seem to indicate. The Royals are paying Duffy $15.5M this season so he obviously has a bit of pressure on his shoulders to live up to expectations in the fourth year of his contract. Those numbers I mentioned certainly aren't sustainable when you consider Duffy has recorded a 45.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats, not to mention a 39.6% line drive percentage and below average 29.2% ground ball percentage. Duffy hasn't posted lower than a 3.1% home run percentage (the MLB average is 2.9%) since 2017 but that number stands at 1.4% this season. I believe it's only a matter of time before we start seeing some balls leave the yard with Duffy on the mound. Michael Fulmer will counter for Detroit. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I'm fairly high on Fulmer, this season at least. It's easy to forget that he was the A.L. Rookie of the Year in 2016, finishing top-10 in A.L. Cy Young Award voting that year. He followed that up with an All-Star campaign in 2017. He's looking to make his way back to respectability now following a tough stretch and he's been effective so far in 2021. Fulmer has recorded a 36.4% hard-hit ball percentage and an 86.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a solid rate, with a 52.3% ground ball percentage. Opposing hitters are batting a collective .186 against him. While he has allowed three home runs in just 16 innings, I expect that to even out as he's been better than MLB average in terms of home run percentage over the course of his career. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-24-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
National League Run-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Marlins have had a tough time through the first two games here in San Francisco, only making things look close thanks to a two-out ninth inning error followed by a two-run home run to close the gap to 5-3. Here, I do like Miami in what figures to be a close affair. Pablo Lopez will take the ball for the Marlins. He was solid last season and has picked up right where he left off here in 2021. Through 21 2/3 innings of work, Lopez has recorded a 37.3% hard-hit ball percentage and an 84.6 mph exit velocity off opposing bats, noting that the MLB average in those departments is 39.2% and 88.7 mph. He's done a terrific job of staying out of danger throughout his career thanks to a 49.0% ground ball percentage and he checks in 47.5% in that category so far this season. His career fly ball percentage is nearly 5% lower than the MLB average. It's also encouraging to see Lopez's strikeout rate climb in each of his last three big league seasons. Kevin Gausman is pitching with a bit of pressure off a solid 2020 campaign as the Giants are paying him $18.9M this season. He's been solid in the early going this season but there is some reason for concern. Gausman's strikeouts are down and his walks are up while he's also recorded a 38.6% fly ball percentage. Opponents are hitting just .185 against him but we're bound to see some regression to the mean in that regard as he owns a career .263 opponents batting average. Rather than back the Marlins outright here, we'll grab the insurance run in what projects as another low-scoring affair in San Francisco. Take Miami +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Nuggets -2 v. Warriors | Top | 97-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Most were quick to write off the Nuggets after they lost Jamal Murray for the season to a torn ACL, interestingly enough in a game right here in San Francisco against the Warriors earlier this month. Instead of hanging their heads, the Nuggets have reeled off four straight victories with Nikola Jokic leading the way in his MVP-worthy campaign. While Denver has gone 0-8 ATS when on the road revenging a loss against an opponent this season, I think this one is a little different. The Nuggets certainly haven't forgotten that 116-107 loss here on April 12th and I'm confident they'll make amends for it with the Warriors in a tough spot, returning home following an eastern road trip that saw them start strong but finish poorly, blowing a fourth quarter lead in an eventual loss to the Wizards two nights ago. Here, Golden State will be playing its seventh game in the last 12 nights, in six different cities. It very much looked like a team that was running out of gas in Washington, shooting worse than 40% from the field against a below-average Wizards defense. The Nuggets will be playing their sixth game in the last 12 nights, but in just four different cities. They're set up well here, noting they've gone 21-9 ATS after losing at least two games in a row ATS over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 10.2 points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Warriors have gone a miserable 1-10 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 11.1 points in that spot. The Nuggets are locked in at both ends of the floor right now, having outrebounded each of their last five opponents while holding eight straight opponents to worse than 50% shooting, a strong defensive run by today's NBA standards. Denver checks in ranked fourth in the league in floor percentage over its last four games while Golden State sits bottom-six in that category over the same stretch. The Nuggets are also top-five in extra scoring chances per game over their last three contests while the Warriors rank 29th. You get the picture. Take Denver (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Pirates +1.5 v. Twins | 0-2 | Loss | -146 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Pirates are quietly stacking series wins after a slow start to the season and I like their chances of at least starting this series in Minnesota on a positive note on Friday night. J.T. Brubaker is an underrated starter for the Buccos. He didn't post great numbers on the surface in his rookie campaign a year ago but a deeper look showed encouraging signs and he's picked up where he left off here in 2021. After recording a 32.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats last season he's just north of those numbers in the early going here in 2021. While we're talking about a small sample size, Brubaker has done a terrific job of inducing ground balls so far this season, posting a 55.3% ground ball percentage and 21.1% fly ball percentage. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and he's limited opposing hitters to a collective .196 batting average in 15 1/3 innings of work this season. J.A. Happ will counter for the Twins. He's clearly on the downside of his career with the Twins taking a bit of a flyer on him for $8M this season. Happ had a rough spring and he's yet to turn things around through two regular season starts, despite his 3.12 ERA and 1.27 WHIP seeming to indicate otherwise. Happ has recorded a 44.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His 44.0% fly ball percentage is certainly concerning, even if Happ has by no means been a ground ball pitcher over the course of his career. More concerning is the fact that his strikeout rate is down while his walk rate is up. I don't need to tell you that's a bad combination for a starting pitcher in the latter stages of his career. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
MLB American League Run-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Mariners head east following a 1-0 loss to the Dodgers two days ago to face a Red Sox club that's fresh off a two-game split against the division rival Blue Jays. I like the way this one sets up for Seattle as it sends Justin Dunn to the mound against Nick Pivetta. Dunn has been a bit of an enigma for the M's during the early stages of his big league career. Command has certainly been an issue as Dunn has recorded an ugly 18.5% walk percentage in 62 innings of work. However, there is reason for optimism as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .168 batting average. We've also seen him improve on his strikeout percentage this season, averaging 8.4 K's per nine innings. Note that the Mariners own a terrific 6-1 record with Dunn on the mound as a road underdog over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs per game in that situation. Nick Pivetta was cast away after a brutal start with the Phillies last season. He was fine in a couple of appearances with the Red Sox last season but now we're seeing the same issues creep up again in the early going here in 2021. Pivetta has recorded a 45.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats so far this season - both well north of the MLB average. He has also posted a 32.5% line drive percentage and 27.5% fly ball percentage to go along with a poor 30.0% ground ball percentage - again, all worse than the MLB average. His walks are up and his strikeouts are down so far this season. The only thing that has helped him save face has been the fact that he's kept the ball in the park for the most part, but it should only be a matter of time before that changes, noting that he owns a career 4.0% home run percentage compared to the MLB average of 3.3%. For his career, opponents are hitting a lofty .272 against him - 22 points higher than the MLB average. Noting that the Mariners have gone a perfect 11-0 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line over their last 11 games, we'll grab the insurance run again here with the price warranting such a play. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Suns -1 v. 76ers | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I really wanted to back the 76ers in this game but the more I look into the matchup, the more I like the Suns. Of course, what was originally keeping me from getting behind Philadelphia was its injury/illness concerns with Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons questionable to play. While it is likely at least one of the two will be good to go for this one, I'm still not sure it will be enough, and question how much they would really contribute here. The Suns are in an obvious letdown spot off the overtime win over the Bucks in Milwaukee two nights ago, but letdowns have been few and far between for this team this season, particularly on the road where they check in 18-7, outscoring opponents by 4.0 points per game. The Suns are a terrific positive momentum play, having gone 17-5 ATS on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. They're also an incredible 21-5 ATS after winning two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.0 points per game in that spot. The 76ers are quite simply out of rhythm right now, barely getting by an undermanned Clippers squad last Friday night before falling to the Warriors in a 107-96 decision on Monday. They shot a miserable 42.2% and 39.3% in those two games, respectively. We've seen the Sixers fall in a number of step-up spots here at home in recent weeks. While they check in 22-6 SU at Wells Fargo Arena this season, half of those losses have come since March 17th. Phoenix has taken each of the last two meetings in this series, including a 120-111 win at home back on February 13th. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Yankees | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over New York at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Braves bats went silent once again in last night's 3-1 loss to the Yankees but I look for them to salvage a split, or at the very least take this one down to the wire on Wednesday evening in the Bronx. Ian Anderson will take the ball for the Braves. He had a tough spring and he's been average at best through three regular season starts but I look for him to step up in this key road tilt on Wednesday. Note that while Anderson has posted an ugly 4.70 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, there is some reason for encouragement. In keeping with his success a year ago, Anderson continues to induce ground balls at a terrific rate, having recorded a 46.3% ground ball percentage this season. His 12.2% fly ball percentage is even more impressive, yet he's been tagged for three home runs in just 15 1/3 innings of work. That should even out in due time, noting that Anderson recorded a stellar 0.7% home run percentage last season - on his way to finishing seventh in N.L. Rookie of the Year Award voting. Veteran Corey Kluber will counter for New York. He has labored through three starts with his new club, recording an ERA north of six to go along with a brutal 2.23 WHIP. Kluber will eventually figure it out I'm sure but it is alarming to see a 46.9% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Also note that his strikeout percentage, walk percentage and home run percentage are all trending in the wrong direction compared to his career averages - no surprise as Kluber is undoubtedly on the down side of his terrific career. Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (9*). |
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04-20-21 | Hurricanes +1.5 v. Lightning | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. There's not a lot separating these two teams right now, as evidenced by last night's 3-2 overtime win by the Lightning (we won with Tampa Bay in that game). Carolina has an excellent track record bouncing back from one-goal losses away from home, having gone a perfect 7-0 in its last seven opportunities away off a one-goal loss against a division foe, outscoring opponents by 2.0 goals per game and allowing just 1.6 goals per contest in that situation. I certainly feel the Hurricanes should be priced considerably higher catching an insurance goal here. Note that Tampa Bay has won just three of its last nine games when coming off a one-goal victory this season, allowing a whopping 3.8 goals per game in that spot. The Lightning are also just 6-14 in their last 20 games following an overtime victory, as is the case here, allowing 3.5 goals per game in that situation. Note that Canes head coach Rod Brind'Amour has done a terrific job of getting his team ready despite playing on short rest, having gone 25-11 the last 36 times they've played their third game in four nights and 25-12 in their last 37 contests on the second of back-to-back nights. The Canes have been right there with the Lightning this season and with a win tonight can even up the season series at four games apiece. I'll grab the insurance goal here as I do feel there's a high probability that we see another game go right down to the wire, just as we did last night. Take Carolina +1.5 goals (9*). |
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04-19-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 137-139 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Memphis at 9:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the Grizzlies in their outright underdog victory in Milwaukee on Saturday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade them here as they head to Denver in what I consider a throw-away game. Note that Memphis has now won three of its last four games SU and four in a row ATS but will be without Jonas Valanciunas due to a concussion on Monday and could also be missing Dillon Brooks, among others. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Grizz as they still have four games left on their current road trip, with a four-game in six-night stretch on deck. Meanwhile, the Nuggets lost Jamal Murray for the season with a torn ACL last week but proceeded to reel off consecutive wins in blowout fashion over the Heat and Rockets. While Memphis is playing its fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities, this will be just the Nuggets third game in the last six nights, with two of those contests coming here at home. Denver checks in 18-10 at Ball Arena this season, outscoring opponents by six points per game. The Nuggets have taken consecutive meetings in this series in Denver, going 1-0-1 ATS along the way. Take Denver (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Penguins v. Sabres +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo +1.5 goals over Pittsburgh at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. While Buffalo remains an NHL doormat this season it has certainly played better hockey lately, going 5-5 over its last 10 games despite suffering a narrow 3-2 loss against the Penguins yesterday. If you factor in the +1.5 puck-line, the Sabres check in 11-1 over their last 12 games. While the Pens have been playing well, and will be looking for their fifth straight road win today, this spot doesn't set up particularly well, noting that they average just 2.4 goals per game and have been outscored by 0.6 goals on average when playing on the road after winning four of their last five games over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Buffalo checks in averaging 3.7 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average when coming off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons. The Sabres have actually gone 5-1 when coming off a one-goal loss at home this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive 1.8 goals per game in that spot. Take Buffalo +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 128-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Grizzlies will have revenge on their minds after they suffered a heart-breaking last-second loss against the Bucks on their home floor back on March 4th and I like their chances of taking Milwaukee down to the wire again here. While the Bucks are back home following a three-game road trip (in which they went a perfect 3-0) and had an off day yesterday, this is still a tough scheduling spot as this will be their 11th game since March 29th, in nine different cities no less. The Grizzlies are in a back-to-back spot, making the short trip from Chicago, but had the benefit of a three-game homestand prior to that. Of course, Memphis has been playing excellent basketball, having gone 13-3 ATS over its last 16 games. The Grizzlies have certainly been a streaky team and set up well here given their 14-5 ATS mark after winning consecutive games ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 3.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks check in just 21-33 ATS when coming off three more more consecutive victories over the last two seasons. I'll also point out that the Grizzlies have been outscored by an average margin of just 0.5 points when coming off a game in which they gave up 115 points or more, as is the case here off last night's 126-115 win in Chicago. Memphis has certainly held its own against the Bucks, going 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings, including an outright victory in its last trip to Milwaukee. Take Memphis (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Devils +1.5 v. Rangers | 3-6 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Jersey +1.5 goals over New York at 12:35 pm et on Saturday. We missed with this same play two nights ago as the Rangers jumped out in front early (they grabbed a 1-0 lead 47 seconds into the game) and the Devils were never able to recover in a 4-0 loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Saturday, however, as these two teams go head-to-head in the second of three straight matchups. As I noted in my analysis on Thursday, the Devils are still a winning team on the road this season having gone 10-9, outscored by just 0.2 goals per game along the way. Note they've gone 8-2 when playing on the road following consecutive losses against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals per game in that spot. They also check in 9-3 on the road after giving up three goals or more in three straight games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals per game in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rangers are just 3-9 coming off a win by three goals or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. They're also a miserable 1-7 when playing at home after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.4 goals per game on average. We'll grab the insurance goal here as the price warrants such a play. Take New Jersey +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Some will be expecting a letdown from the 76ers here as they come off Wednesday's wire-to-wire win over the Nets but I don't see it happening. Perhaps that game wasn't quite as big as it could have been as Brooklyn didn't have the services of two-thirds of its 'big three', Kevin Durant and James Harden. Here, the Sixers host another elite opponent but do so knowing they've taken each of the last two meetings in this series in Philadelphia, but also with revenge on their minds following a 10-point loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles back on March 27th. The Clippers have already locked up a winning three-game road trip thanks to victories in Indiana and Detroit. Now they're in a tough spot, playing their fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities, with another three-in-four spot up next beginning Sunday at home against Minnesota. It's still unknown whether the Clips will have Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup for Friday night's game. I would lean toward him playing but still like the 76ers in that situation. Note that Philadelphia is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games as a home favorite of six points or less, outscoring the opposition by 12.3 points on average in that spot. The 76ers are also 21-9 ATS when playing at home following an ATS loss, as is the case here after Wednesday's win but non-cover against the undermanned Nets, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game in that situation. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 | 120-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. There are injury concerns on both sides leading into this game with the status of Giannis and Trae at the top of every bettor's mind. Based on early line movement there's a good chance we'll see Giannis sit once again while Trae will likely give it a go, but I do like the Hawks regardless of the injury situation in this spot. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins to open its current road trip but it's worth noting it hasn't put together a three-game ATS winning streak since way back in February. The Bucks are playing a wide-open style right now and while it has flustered their last two opponents (two overmatched teams in the Magic and Timberwolves) I believe the Hawks will do just fine. After holding their last two opponents to 37.2% or worse shooting we can certainly anticipate some regression from Milwaukee defensively here. Meanwhile, the Hawks are riding high off three straight wins (both SU and ATS) but still have plenty of room for improvement after shooting 45.2% and 47.6% from the field in their last two contests - both coming on the road against the Hornets and Raptors. Note that Milwaukee checks in 11-20 ATS the L31 times it has come off consecutive games scoring at least 110 points. The Bucks are also just 9-19 ATS the L28 times they've been in a three games in five days situation on the road, outscoring opponents by just 1.1 points per game in that spot. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Devils +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NHL East Division Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on New Jersey +1.5 goals over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers have posted some big wins lately that give off the impression that they're playing better than they actually are. The fact is, New York hasn't won consecutive games since March 30th and April 1st. New Jersey has somewhat surprisingly been a much better team on the road than at home this season, posting a 10-8 record in enemy territory while averaging 3.1 goals per game. Here, the Devils are set up well having gone a perfect 4-0 when playing on the road off three straight home losses, outscoring opponents by a whopping 2.8 goals per game in that situation (yes, I know, small sample size). We've also seen the Devils go 7-2 when playing on the road after being held to two goals or less in their last two games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals per game in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rangers are a woeful 2-9 when coming off a win by three goals or more this season, outscored by 1.0 goal per game in that spot. They're 0-8 the last eight times they've come off a shutout victory, as is the case here, allowing 3.9 goals per game while being outscored by an average margin of two goals in that spot. The Devils have certainly held their own in this series at MSG in recent years, splitting the last six meetings, including taking both matchups in Manhattan this season. Take New Jersey +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Mavs -2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 114-113 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Memphis at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs are coming off consecutive home losses against the Spurs and 76ers with the latter coming in embarrassing form in a lifeless effort two nights ago (in front of a national audience on ESPN, no less). It shouldn't be difficult for the Mavs to get back up for this one-game road trip to Memphis on Wednesday and they're set up well to get back in the win column. Note that Dallas is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as a road favorite of six points or less, outscoring the opposition by 9.2 points per game in that situation. The Mavs are also a solid 39-25 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.3 points per game in that spot. The Grizzlies check in averaging just 106.2 points per game when playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS this season and should have hard time keeping up with the a Mavs squad that has inexplicably been better both offensively and defensively on the road compared to at home this season. Note that Dallas averages 118 points per game when playing on the road off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Dallas took the first meeting in this series this season by 10 points back on February 22nd and has won two of its last three trips to Memphis, both SU and ATS. Take Dallas (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Celtics v. Blazers -1 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Boston at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers should be in a foul mood when they take the court on Tuesday night after suffering a disappointing 107-98 loss at home against the defensive-minded Heat on Sunday. While the Blazers have certainly been scuffing their heels lately, dropping three of their last four games overall, I'm confident we'll see them bounce back against the resurgent Celtics on Tuesday. Note that Portland has outscored the opposition by 5.3 points per game when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Celtics have averaged just 105.4 points per game and have been outscored by 2.4 points per contest when coming off a win by 15 points or more this season, as is the case here. Boston delivered that blowout win on Sunday, rallying against what appeared to be a very disinterested Nuggets squad (Denver scored just eight fourth quarter points in the loss). Portland couldn't have played much worse, particularly at the offensive end of the floor, against the Heat on Sunday. I don't think the Blazers will have any trouble getting up for this nationally-televised game at home before heading on the road for a two-game trip to San Antonio and Charlotte. Portland has lost a number of games against marquee opponents here at home lately and I think that's why this line is as short as it is. Thi sis a 'put up or shut up' game of sorts and I'm confident we'll see Damian Lillard take charge and lead the Blazers to a strong bounce-back performance. Take Portland (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Jets v. Senators +1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Ottawa +1.5 goals over Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Jets are rolling right now, winners of three games in a row including a two-game sweep in Montreal which culminated with a 5-0 victory on Saturday night. While Winnipeg has owned this series, taking five of six meetings so far this season, the Senators have been right here with the Jets in the last two matchups, winning 2-1 here in Ottawa on February 13th before dropping a 4-3 decision in Winnipeg on April 5th. The Jets are set up poorly here, noting that they've gone just 17-26 after allowing one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.3 goals per game in that situation. They've also posted an ugly 3-12 record and average just 2.1 goals per game after scoring three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Sens have somewhat surprisingly gone 5-1 after allowing six goals or more over the last two seasons, averaging 3.8 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that situation which presents itself here after Saturday's wild 6-5 loss in Toronto (we won with the 'over' in that game). Also note that the Sens give up just 2.3 goals per game playing at home after losing five or six of their last seven games this season. Expect a tightly-contested affair on Monday night in Ottawa. Take Ottawa +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Rockets +12 v. Clippers | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is a 'name your score' type of game for the Clippers but as we know from recent history, they don't always fare that well in that type of situation. We cashed the Magic in an outright underdog victory in a similar spot on March 30th. On that night, the Clippers were also playing the second of back-to-backs and also coming off consecutive games in which they shot 50% or better from the field. Here, we find Los Angeles coming off a victory over the Suns last night (we won with the 'under') - their third consecutive SU and ATS win. Note that the Clips have allowed 116.7 points per game when playing at home off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by just 1.8 points per game in that situation. They've also gone just 8-21 ATS the last 29 times they've played at home off three consecutive home victories, outscoring opponents by just 1.6 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rockets have actually been playing some competitive basketball lately, going 4-3 ATS over their last seven contests, including an upset win over the Mavericks two nights ago - a game in which Dallas did put forth a quality effort with a full roster and no limits on minutes even though it was the front half of a back-to-back. The Rockets won't have John Wall on Friday night after he poured in 31 points on Wednesday but they also didn't have him two games back when they gave the Suns all they could handle in a narrow 133-130 loss. As bad as the Rockets have been at times this season, they've still only been outscored by 5.5 points per game on the road. I'm not sure how interested the Clippers will be in laying a beatdown here while Houston has shown that it hasn't quit on the season despite its miserable record. Take Houston (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +2 | Top | 129-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Memphis at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Knicks are in a bit of a lull right now, having lost five of their last six games but it's worth noting that four of those five games were played on the road and three of those losses almost certainly could have gone either way. While this looks like an awfully tough matchup on paper with the Grizzlies coming in off four straight victories, including a perfect 3-0 start to this current road trip, I expect New York to be up for the challenge. Note that the Grizz have caught a couple of favorable situations on this trip with the 76ers sitting Joel Embiid last Sunday and the Hawks missing a number of key cogs on Wednesday. After shooting a blistering 54.8% and 53.9% over their last two games, I'm certainly anticipating some offensive regression from the Grizzlies here, as they face a Knicks squad that allows just 104.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home this season. Note that New York is 10-1 ATS at home with the line set between +3 and -3 this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.9 points in those contests. Also note that the Knicks have outscored opponents by 3.7 points per game following a loss by six points or less this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Grizz have been outscored by 2.5 points per game when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons. Take New York (10*). |
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04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga -4 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over Baylor at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Gonzaga's thrilling semi-final victory over UCLA on Saturday. Here, I'll switch gears and look at the side as we back the Bulldogs in their final showdown with Baylor. I hesitate to say that the Zags merely survived Saturday's buzzer-beating win over UCLA. You could certainly make the case that both teams deserved the win on that night - the Zags were simply able to make one more shot than the Bruins. With that being said, I give a ton of credit to UCLA. It shot an exceptional 57.6% from the field, knocking down incredibly tough shots all night long. Keep in mind, that was only the third time all season that Gonzaga allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field. In two previous occurrences, the Bulldogs followed it up with an ATS victory, holding Auburn to 37.3% shooting in a 23-point rout on November 27th and limiting Creighton to 40.6% shooting in an 18-point victory earlier in this tournament. Considering the Bruins shot so well, and also held a 32-26 rebounding edge, the Zags should be incredibly pleased with the fact that they were able to come away victorious on Saturday. Here, I certainly don't expect Baylor to shoot nearly as well, nor do I expect the Zags to lose the rebounding battle (note they hadn't been outrebounded in a game since February 27th prior to Saturday's contest). Note that the Zags entered this tournament ranked 11th in the nation in total rebounding percentage and 13th in opponents floor percentage. By contrast, Baylor checked in ranked 44th in both of those categories. For Baylor's part, it shot an impressive 52.7% from the field in Saturday's blowout win over Houston. The Cougars were quite simply overmatched from the start in that game as the Bears jumped ahead early and never looked back. Now I question whether Baylor can get right back up to the necessary level of intensity to stage the upset against Gonzaga. Note that Saturday's game marked the first time in six games that the Bears shot better than 50% from the field. It was also the first time they outrebounded an opponent since a lopsided victory over Hartford in the opening round of this tournament. We know that Gonzaga prefers to play at a fast pace, entering the tournament ranked 16th nationally in possessions per game. Also note that the Zags have gone 28-14 ATS with the total set in the 150's over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 26.1 points. Take Gonzaga (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Thunder +11.5 v. Blazers | 85-133 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. We'll plug our nose and back the undermanned Thunder as they face the Blazers in Portland on Saturday night. Of course, Oklahoma City was routed by 37 points in Phoenix last night but that was against a Suns squad that is absolutely rolling right now. Here, the Thunder catch the Blazers playing their sixth game in the last 10 nights, in five different cities. The Blazers certainly looked like a tired team last night against Milwaukee, shooting 36.4% from the field while allowing the Bucks to shoot 54.4%. While Portland will certainly be eager to bounce back tonight, it's unlikely the Thunder will draw a great deal of motivation considering the Blazers already exacted revenge on the Thunder for an earlier-season home loss by winning by double-digits in Oklahoma City back on February 16th. The Blazers rarely blow anyone out here at home, where they've outscored the opposition by just 2.1 points per game this season. The Thunder check in 15-5 ATS when playing on the road off a double-digit loss over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Portland is a woeful 1-8 ATS at home after allowing 115 points or more in its last game this season, outscored by 7.9 points per game in that spot. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Mavs v. Wizards +6 | Top | 109-87 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Dallas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I thankfully laid off my potential fade of the Mavs last night as they ended up defeating the Knicks by double-digits in New York. Here, I will go to the well with a fade of streaking Dallas, however, as it might struggle to find the proper level of motivation to draw on in the final installment of what has been a successful five-game road trip. The Mavs lone loss on the trip came one week ago tonight in New Orleans in a game where they sat both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. While I certainly expect both to play here, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that Luka at the very least could be given another night off in this back-to-back situation - but we'll operate under the assumption that he does play. The Wizards didn't show up to play in Thursday's 29-point blowout loss in Detroit. You really do have to pick your spots wisely when it comes to the Wiz, but when they do show up motivated, you can generally count on a competitive game and I do expect them to step up here at home against the Mavs. Note that as poorly as things have gone in general for the Wiz in recent years, they've actually been outscored by just 0.2 points per game in their last 96 games played here at home. Meanwhile, the Mavs have outscored opponents by an average margin of just 1.3 points when coming off a win over the last two seasons and here they check in off three consecutive victories. Washington is in a favorable situation here as it has gone 19-9 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS over the last two seasons, actually outscoring the opposition by 0.3 points per game in that spot. Take Washington (10*). |
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04-02-21 | Bulls +12.5 v. Jazz | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Bulls here, even with the assumption that Zach LaVine won't be in the lineup. Chicago fell just short in Phoenix two nights ago as Devin Booker absolutely went off in a five-point Suns victory. Now at the tail-end of this four-game road trip, Chicago will be looking to at least salvage some positive momentum before returning home. Of course, that's a tall task against the league-leading Jazz. However, this has been a bit of an emotionally-draining week for Utah after its plane headed for Memphis was forced to make an emergency landing after hitting a flock of birds shortly after taking off. Donovan Mitchell was particularly shaken up following the experience and didn't make the trip to Memphis. Utah ended up getting past the Grizzlies by four points in a game where we won with the 'under'. The Bulls are in a good spot here, noting that they've gone an incredible 20-5 ATS when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. They're also 10-2 ATS when playing on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game this season, outscoring opponents by 5.5 points per game in that spot. There's really not much negative we can say about the Jazz as they've been dominant this season. I simply feel this is a spot where they're simply looking to keep their winning streak intact rather than win by margin. Take Chicago (10*). |
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03-31-21 | Flyers v. Sabres +1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo +1.5 goals over Philadelphia at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. It's certainly not easy to back the Sabres these days and after Monday's embarrassing 3-0 blown lead (which eventually led to a 4-3 overtime loss) Buffalo-backers will be few and far between on Wednesday night. I'll grab the Sabres on the puck-line here, however, noting that they don't look like a team that's quit, holding third period leads in each of their last two games. In fact, Buffalo has only been outscored in two of its last six periods of hockey. Its last two games mark the first time it has gone without losing a game by multiple goals in a two-game stretch over the course of its entire 18-game skid. Let's face it, tonight's opponent the Philadelphia Flyers have their own issues right now. While they do enter this one off consecutive wins, you would have to go all the way back to February 28th to find the last time they won a game by two goals or more (right here in Buffalo oddly enough). Their two-game winning streak marks their longest since notching three consecutive wins from February 24th-28th. Note that the Flyers are have allowed 4.3 goals per game off a one-goal loss this season, outscored by 1.7 goals per game in that situation. They've also allowed a whopping 4.8 goals per game following a road game where both teams scored three goals or more over the last two seasons. The Sabres have been outscored by just 0.1 goals per game following a one-goal loss over the last two seasons. We certainly won't be taking many shots with the Sabres but in this spot, I believe a play is warranted. Take Buffalo +1.5 goals (10*). |
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03-31-21 | Blazers v. Pistons +7 | Top | 124-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. After an extended stay in Florida - a successful one at that - I think this might be a tough game for the Blazers to get up for on Wednesday night as they look to wrap up a perfect 4-0 eastern road swing. Portland has been a solid road team all season, going 14-9 SU and ATS, however it's been a dead heat in terms of scoring averages as it puts up 115.7 points per game while giving up, you guessed it, 115.7 points per game away from home. Also note that the Blazers have been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points per game after winning four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons. They've also been outscored by 2.9 points per game on average when coming off an ATS win over the last two seasons. For their part, the Pistons have been a solid spread team at home this season, going 12-9 ATS, outscored by just 1.5 points per game on average. They check into tonight's game having gone a profitable 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games overall. Note that Detroit owns a stellar 17-7 ATS mark after losing four of its last five games this season, as is the case here, actually outscoring the opposition by 0.4 points per game in that situation. With Portland looking forward to getting back home to host Giannis and the Bucks on Friday, look for the Pistons to keep this one competitive on Wednesday. Take Detroit (10*). |
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03-30-21 | Magic +11.5 v. Clippers | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. Yes, the Magic cleared out over half of their starting five prior to the trade deadline last week but since then they've gone a perfect 2-0 ATS and now catch another favorable situation against the Clippers on Tuesday night. Los Angeles played through a number of key absences last night to rout the Bucks by 24 points. While the Clips have enjoyed tremendous success on the second of back-to-back nights this season, this is going to be an awfully tough one for them to get up for and when you factor in that they're also playing their third game in four nights, and off four consecutive double-digit wins, I can certainly see them taking a bit of a breather. The Magic have actually been outscored by just 1.9 points per game when coming off a road loss over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Clippers have outscored opponents by just 4.7 points on average when playing at home off an ATS win over the last three seasons. The Magic check in 29-16 ATS when playing on the road following four or five ATS wins in their last six games, as is the case here, outscored by just 2.1 points per game in that situation. Finally, Orlando could get a boost with the expected return of three-point specialist Terrence Ross on Tuesday as well. Take Orlando (10*). |
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03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga -8 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over USC at 7:15 pm et on Tuesday. Credit USC for reaching the Elite Eight on the strength of some truly incredible shooting performances over the last couple of games. The Trojans shot better than 57% against both Kansas and Oregon and enter tonight's contest having shot 50% or better in four straight games going back to the Pac-12 Tournament earlier this month. Keep in mind, only once previously this season did the Trojans shoot better than 50% from the field in three consecutive games, and that took place right out of the gates in a stretch that saw them face the likes of Cal Baptist and Montana (along with a solid BYU squad). While USC has enjoyed an incredible run, I expect it to run out of magic here, and it's certainly worth noting that the Trojans have gone 0-7 ATS in their seven straight-up losses this season, losing four of those games by nine points or more. What more can be said about Gonzaga? They were the heavily favored to win this tournament at the outset for a reason and have only gotten better with each passing game. While the Bulldogs have shot better than 55% from the field in two of their three tournament games to date, that's only par for the course really, noting that their Round of 32 win over Oklahoma marked the first time since January 23rd that they shot worse than 50%. The Zags are tops in the nation in both offensive efficiency and floor percentage and play at a pace that should make the Trojans uncomfortable, noting that USC entered the tourney ranked north of 200 in terms of possessions per game. I don't expect USC to afford itself enough extra scoring opportunities to keep pace here, noting that it entered the tournament ranked 311th in steals per possessions, 123rd in turnovers per possession and 98th in extra scoring chances per game. By contrast, Gonzaga ranked 41st, 36th and 32nd in those three categories, respectively. Take Gonzaga (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor -7.5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Arkansas at 9:55 pm et on Monday. A lot of folks were obviously down on Baylor entering this tournament after it sleepwalked its way to an early exit in the Big 12 Tournament a week earlier. Even in the Bears NCAA Tournament opener against Hartford (and subsequently in the first half of their second game against Wisconsin) we saw some rather uninspired basketball. However, over their last 60 minutes played, the Bears have turned it on and have left the opposition in the dust. I expect to see continued progression from Baylor on Monday as it takes on Arkansas. It's worth noting that the Bears will be playing just their second game in the last eight days here on Monday as it's a spot they've absolutely thrived in over the last couple of seasons, allowing an average of just 57.2 points per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 17.3 points (going 13-5 ATS in those games). I'll also points out that Baylor has gone 14-5 ATS, outscoring opponents by 10.1 points per game when playing away from home off of three straight wins, as is the case here. Despite winning all three tournament games to this point, there's still plenty of room for improvement when it comes to the Bears as they've actually been outrebounded by two over their last two contests and have yet to shoot better than 45.5% from the field in the tourney to date. Keep in mind, we're talking about a Baylor squad that ranked second in the nation in offensive efficiency and third in floor percentage not to mention a respectable 44th in total rebounding percentage heading into the tournament. Arkansas obviously wants to play at a fast pace but I'm not sure that will serve it well in this particular matchup. Baylor certainly has the athleticism to counteract the Hogs in transition and ultimately afford itself extra possessions, noting that the Bears are a top-10 team in extra scoring chances per game this season. Take Baylor (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Oregon State v. Houston -7.5 | 61-67 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Oregon State at 7:15 pm et on Monday. Oregon State has enjoyed a run for the ages going back to the Pac-12 Tournament and now finds itself just one win away from an improbable Final Four appearance. I believe the clock is about to strike midnight on this Cinderella team on Monday, however, as the Beavers run into a dominant Cougars squad. Houston entered this tournament checking all the boxes and we cashed a ticket with the Cougars in their opening round rout of Cleveland State. While I haven't gone back to the well with them since, I will get behind them here. Keep in mind, Houston checked into this tournament ranked top-five in the nation in offensive efficiency and top-12 in floor percentage. The list goes on and on; ninth in total rebounding percentage, 16th in steals per possession, ninth in block percentage, seventh in opponents floor percentage, first in opponents effective field goal percentage, first in extra scoring chances per game - you get the picture. In start contrast, Oregon State ranked outside the top-100 in both offensive efficiency and floor percentage, 189th in total rebounding percentage, 274th in opponents effective field goal percentage and a truly miserable 298th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. That really helps illustrate just how improbable the Beavers run has been as they've taken down some elite opponents. We know that Oregon State likes to play at a slow pace but so does Houston. The Cougars have consistently done it better, however. If the Beavers didn't have everyone's attention prior to Saturday's dominant victory over Loyola-Chicago, they do now. I don't think they'll catch Houston napping the same way they did against the Ramblers. Loyola's downfall could very well have been its hot start as it jumped out to a big early lead and probably thought it would cruise from there. The Beavers took advantage of the Ramblers complacency - again something that isn't likely to happen here. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Pacers v. Wizards +5 | Top | 124-132 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We saw this line open a little higher than expected with Bradley Beal questionable to play after exiting with a hip injury on Saturday. I would operate under the assumption that Beal won't play on Monday - should he be able to go that will serve as an added bonus. I like the spot for the Wizards regardless. There's no question this is a tough spot for the Pacers to get up for as they look ahead to a pair of much tougher home games against the Heat and Hornets later this week. Washington is coming off a 14-point rout of Detroit on Saturday night, shooting better than 46% from the field for a seventh consecutive game while holding the opposition to under 39% shooting for the second straight contest. While Washington is thought of as an Eastern Conference doormat, it has held its own here at home this season, going 11-12 ATS while being outscored by less than four points per game. The Pacers are outscoring opponents by just 0.6 points per game on the road this season. Indiana checks in off consecutive victories over the Pistons and Mavs but it's certainly worth noting that Dallas was without Luka Doncic in the latter contest. The Pacers check into a miserable spot here having gone a woeful 1-11 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games this season, outscored by six points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Wizards average an impressive 122.9 points per game playing at home off an ATS win this season, outscored by just 0.9 points on average in that spot. The Pacers are averaging 113 points per game overall this season but that average drops to 108.1 ppg when coming off a win over the last three seasons. Take Washington (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech +1 | Top | 84-62 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Mississippi State at 3 pm et on Saturday. Most bettors will likely back Mississippi State by default at virtually a pk'em price in this one as it comes from a power conference in the SEC while Louisiana Tech is out of the far less respected C-USA. I like the Bulldogs' (La. Tech) chances of staging the minor upset, however, as they come in playing some of their best basketball of the season and match up well here. It's worth noting that Louisiana Tech ranks an impressive eighth in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 11th in opponents effective field goal percentage this season. While Mississippi State has the better offense, I do think that Louisiana Tech, which comes in having scored 70+ points in six of its last seven games, can hang. Note that Mississippi State ranks just 161st in the country in steals per possession and conversely, ranks a miserable 319th in turnovers per possession on offense. With Mississippi State ranking 248th in the country in possessions per game, it isn't going to overwhelm Louisiana Tech with its pace here either. Louisiana State checks in as a positive momentum play having gone 10-1 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games this season, outscoring opponents by 14.6 points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, Mississippi State is just 1-9 ATS following a close victory by six points or less over the last two seasons, outscored by 5.1 points per game in that spot. Take Louisiana Tech (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Oregon State v. Loyola-Chicago -6.5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago minus the points over Oregon State at 2:40 pm et on Saturday. We won one of our big ticket plays backing Oregon State in its win over Oklahoma State last round but I won't hesitate to switch gears and go against the Beavers here as they go up against Loyola-Chicago in the Sweet 16. The Ramblers are by no means a 'Cinderella' team. They've turned in a tremendous season so far, winning 26 of 30 games, leaning on their wealth of talent and experience to reach the Sweet 16, even if few gave them a chance against Illinois last Sunday. This is a team that is certainly comfortable being in the 'favorite' role, having been the front-runner in the Missouri Valley Conference for much of the season. If any team is going to suffer a letdown here, it's not going to be the Ramblers off the upset win over one-seed Illinois, instead I feel that Oregon State might have a tough time getting its emotions running as high as it did against 'name' programs like Tennessee and Oklahoma State in the first two rounds of this tournament. The Beavers are undoubtedly deserving of respect as they've gotten hot at the right time, parlaying a Pac-12 Tournament championship run into two victories here in the NCAA Tournament. However, let's not lose sight of the fact that this is a team that entered the tourney ranked 274th in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 190th in opponents effective field goal percentage, not to mention its dreadful 298th ranking in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Like Loyola-Chicago, Oregon State plays at a slow pace, ranking 316th in the country in possessions per game. But the Ramblers do it much better, entering the tournament ranked 26th in the country in offensive efficiency and 25th in floor percentage. By contrast, the Beavers sat outside of the top-100 in both of those categories. The Pac-12 is being given plenty of respect now with four teams reaching the Sweet 16. However, noting that Loyola-Chicago has gone 10-3 ATS when playing away from home off three or more consecutive wins this season, outscoring the opposition by 13.1 points on average, while also going 15-4 ATS off a double-digit victory, outscoring opponents by 16.8 points per game in that situation, I'll gladly back the Ramblers laying a relatively short number here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
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03-26-21 | Nets -5.5 v. Pistons | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We've made a habit of fading the Nets over the last week or so, cashing tickets against them with the underdog Magic last Friday night and the favored Jazz in what turned out to be a monster blowout on Wednesday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the Nets as they stay on the road to face the Pistons in Detroit on Friday. Brooklyn obviously has injury concerns but I would expect it to have James Harden back on the floor for Friday's game. According to head coach Steve Nash it sounded like Harden could have played on Wednesday in Utah but the team essentially treated that as a throw-away game on the second of back-to-back nights off a win in Portland on Tuesday. The Pistons check in off an ATS win in Indiana on Wednesday but that sets them up poorly here, noting they've gone 17-31 ATS off an ATS victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 6.5 points per game in that situation. Having dropped their last meeting with the Nets after staging an upset in their first matchup, I'll point out that they're 26-41 ATS when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.2 points in those contests. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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03-24-21 | Nets v. Jazz -8.5 | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Brooklyn at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. A lot of bettors got burned by the Nets last night, electing to fade them missing two of the big three against the Blazers in Portland. James Harden rose the occasion and Brooklyn pulled off the outright underdog win in that one. Now those same bettors might be quick to switch gears and back the Nets catching a generous helping of points in Utah tonight, especially with the Jazz returning home off a long road trip. I think that's the wrong move. Note that Brooklyn will be playing its fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities and three different time zones. That's not to mention the fact that it is without Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving while James Harden plays with a nagging neck injury (after being on the floor for 39 minutes last night). Utah has of course been one of the league's best bets this season, going 13-4 ATS as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by 13.6 points per game on average. I like the way the Jazz are set up here, noting that they've allowed just 100.6 points per game and outscored the opposition by 12 points per game after winning their previous contest by 20 points or more over the last three seasons. That's the case here after Utah closed out its road trip with a 25-point blowout win in Chicago on Monday. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Abilene Christian +5 v. UCLA | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
CBB East Region Game of the Year. My selection is on Abilene Christian plus the points over UCLA at 5:15 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with Abilene Christian as it continue on a Cinderella run here in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats shot a miserable sub-30% from the field in their opener against Texas but still managed to stage the upset thanks to an incredible defensive effort. That shouldn't have come as a big surprise as Abilene Christian has terrific at that end of the floor all season, entering the tournament ranked sixth in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 13th in opponents effective field goal percentage. That's not to mention the fact that the Wildcats are capable of ratcheting up the pressure, ranking third in the country in steals per possession. I'm not overly concerned by their awful shooting performance against Texas. Keep in mind, ACU entered the tourney ranked a respectable 67th in offensive efficiency and 55th in floor percentage, not to mention sixth in the country in extra scoring chances per game. I feel their up-tempo style could give UCLA some problems here, noting that ACU ranks 97th in possessions per game compared to the Bruins', who entered the tourney 288th. UCLA rode the hot hand of Johnny Juzang in its 'upset' win over BYU in the opening round. Juzang had been dealing with injuries and I do question what happens if he doesn't shoot the lights out again here. While ACU has had some issues taking care of the basketball this season, UCLA is unlikely to take advantage, ranking 299th in the country in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage entering this tourney. The Bruins have really been nothing special defensively either, ranking 156th in opponents floor percentage and 201st in opponents effective field goal percentage. Finally, I'll point to the fact that UCLA has gone just 3-11 ATS away from home after winning two of its last three games over the last three seasons, outscored by a whopping 11 points per game in that situation. Take Abilene Christian (10*). |
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03-21-21 | Oregon State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Oklahoma State at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. Oklahoma State held on for the cover against Liberty in its NCAA Tournament opener on Friday but I expect the Cowboys will be in for a tough challenge against red hot Oregon State on Sunday. The Beavers got hot at exactly the right time, improbably winning the Pac-12 Tournament last week before dominating a good Tennessee team in their opening round matchup on Friday. I like the matchup here as well. Oklahoma State has outscored the opposition by just 1.8 points per game after winning four of its last five games this season. In 14 situations where it has won five or six of its last seven games this season it has outscored opponents by just 0.5 points per game. While Oregon State is considered an upstart, it has actually posted a winning record away from home this season, allowing just 66.7 points per game. Albeit against a tougher schedule, Oklahoma State has allowed 72.9 ppg away from home this season. Note that entering this tournament, the Cowboys ranked just 135th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 79th in floor percentage while also ranking 270th in extra scoring chances per game. By contrast, Oregon State entered the tourney ranked 88th in extra scoring chances per game. Take Oregon State (10*). |
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03-21-21 | Bulls -3 v. Pistons | Top | 100-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. This is a fine bounce-back spot for the Nuggets after suffering consecutive losses against the Spurs and Nuggets. Both of those losses could have gone either way and there's certainly no reason for Chicago to hang its head following a four-point setback in Denver. Somewhat surprisingly, the Bulls are actually a better team on the road than at home this season, posting a 9-8 record and outscoring the opposition by 2.6 points per game. Note that Chicago is a stellar 14-2 ATS on the road after posting three wins in its last four games ATS over the last three seasons. As we've noted before, the Pistons are not a good revenge team, having gone 25-40 ATS revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points in that situation. They're also a miserable 3-13 ATS after posting consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here, outscored by 9.3 ppg in that spot. It's certainly worth mentioning that Detroit's last two wins came against a reeling Raptors squad and a dreadful Houston team. Take Chicago (10*). |
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03-21-21 | Magic +8.5 v. Celtics | 96-112 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Boston at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have now won three straight and five of their last seven games ATS following a three-game ATS losing skid where many had left them for dead. We won with them in Friday's outright underdog win over the Nets and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Orlando has been a streaky team from an ATS perspective, having gone 19-5 ATS after winning four of its last five games ATS over the last three seasons, actually outscoring the opposition by 3.1 points on average in that situation. Boston has lost three consecutive games both SU and ATS and while most see this as a terrific bounce-back spot, I just think the Celtics might have a tough time getting fully focused on the Magic in a sleepy Sunday afternoon spot before heading out on the road for four games. Take Orlando (10*). |
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03-20-21 | Hornets +9.5 v. Clippers | 98-125 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. This road trip hasn't gone as planned for the Hornets as they've dropped consecutive games by double-digit margins in Denver and here in Los Angeles (against the Lakers). I like the way they're set up to at least keep things competitive against the Clippers on Saturday, however. Note that Charlotte has gone 37-19 ATS off at least two losses in a row over the last three seasons, outscored by just 1.0 point per game in that situation. They're also an impressive 21-8 ATS after giving up 105+ points in three straight games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 points per game in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've outscored opponents by an average margin of just 5.9 points when returning home off a road game over the last three seasons. There's no reason for the Hornets to hang their heads here as they still have three games left on this road trip to turn things around. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how easy it will be for the Clips to get up for this two-game homestand against Eastern Conference opponents. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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03-20-21 | Spurs v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 113-120 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over San Antonio at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Spurs guaranteed themselves a winning road trip with last night's 116-110 win in Cleveland. I can certainly see a scenario unfolding where they have a tough time keeping within arm's reach against a much better rested Bucks squad here on Saturday. For San Antonio, this will be its fifth game in the last seven nights (in five different cities). In fact, it will be the Spurs seventh game in seven different cities since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Bucks are home off two days' rest and this will mark just their fourth game in the last eight days and only their fifth since the All-Star break (in only three different cities). Note that Milwaukee has gone 28-15 ATS returning home following an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 14.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been outscored by 7.2 points per game on average as a road underdog over the last three seasons, and this is by no means a favorable situation (for the reasons noted above). Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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03-20-21 | Texas Southern v. Michigan -25 | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Texas Southern at 3 pm et on Saturday. I expect to see Michigan lay waste to Texas Southern on Saturday afternoon. Of course, credit the Tigers for advancing past Mount St. Mary's in come-from-behind fashion in their First Four matchup on Thursday, but they're likely to get drummed in this one. Note that Texas Southern ranks just 209th in the nation in offensive efficiency and a miserable 277th in turnovers per possession. While we didn't see it on Thursday, the Tigers generally look to push the pace but that will likely backfire against the Wolverines here. Michigan of course has a sour taste in its mouth after failing to reach the final in the Big Ten Tournament last weekend. The Wolverines check into this game ranked 17th in offensive efficiency, 21st in floor percentage, 24th in total rebounding percentage, eighth in opponents effective field goal percentage and third in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage - you get the picture. Texas Southern regularly got torched during its non-conference schedule, allowing 80+ points against Oklahoma State, St. Mary's-CA, Auburn and BYU. Here, unless the Wolverines completely look past the Tigers, they should be able to approach 90 while I don't see Texas Southern finding an easy path to 60. Take Michigan (10*). |
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03-20-21 | St Bonaventure +1.5 v. LSU | 61-76 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Bonaventure plus the points over LSU at 1:45 pm et on Saturday. LSU enjoyed a tremendous run in the SEC Tournament, reaching the final before falling by a single point against Alabama. The Tigers were largely inconsistent away from their home floor over the course of the season, however, going 7-7 SU and ATS while allowing north of 78 points per game. St. Bonaventure is an experienced team built for postseason success and we certainly saw that play out in the Atlantic-10 Tournament as the Bonnies defeated VCU to bring home the championship. I'm confident in the Bonnies ability to run their offense in this matchup, noting that LSU ranks 199th in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 226th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage this season. The Tigers also rank a miserable 258th in block percentage. Meanwhile, St. Bonaventure ranks ninth in opponents floor percentage and 54th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. The Bonnies also check in a very respectable 60th in extra scoring chances per game - by contrast, LSU is 154th in that department. As we saw in the SEC Tournament, the Tigers thrive in an up-tempo environment but I don't think the Bonnies will be interested in trading baskets on Saturday. Note that St. Bonaventure ranks 329th in the country in possessions per game and I'm confident it can use that slow pace to its advantage here. Take St. Bonaventure (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Winthrop +7 v. Villanova | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
CBB First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Winthrop plus the points over Villanova at 9:55 pm et on Friday. While Villanova is just two tournaments removed from a National Championship and head coach Jay Wright is deserving of all the respect he receives for putting together a title contender year in and year out, I believe this is a tough opening round matchup for the Wildcats against a Winthrop squad that 'checks all the boxes' as a potential Cinderella team here in March. We've seen some cracks in Villanova's armor down the stretch while Winthrop has just one blemish on its otherwise flawless resume, albeit against inferior opposition to what the Wildcats face on a game-to-game basis in the Big East. I'm not going to knock the Eagles for playing a lighter schedule though - what they've accomplished is certainly deserving of plenty of respect. Winthrop checks in ranked 7th in the nation in total rebounding percentage compared to Villanova's 116th. I really like the fact that the Eagles will be facing a Wildcats defense that hasn't proven to be all that active at its own end of the floor. Note that 'Nova ranks a miserable 343rd in the country in block percentage and 260th in steals per possession. Contrast that with Winthrop, which checks in 59th in steals per possession, while only slightly better in terms of block percentage at 264th. Defensively, Winthrop has been terrific, ranking 18th in opponents floor percentage, top-100 in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage and a respectable 127th in opponents effective field goal percentage. In order to stay inside the number tonight, taking advantage of any and all extra opportunities will be key and the Eagles check in top-five in the nation in extra scoring chances per game and also succeed at pushing the pace, ranking 48th in possessions per game. By contrast, 'Nova ranks 296th in possessions per game. The knock on the Eagles is their inability to knock down their free throws but we did see some improvement from them in that regard down the stretch, as they shot better than 74% from the free throw line in their last three games while the Wildcats saw some regression, knocking down just 66% of their free throw attempts over their last three contests. Maybe the Eagles freeze in the moment and Villanova's championship pedigree leads it to victory here, but I believe Winthrop has all the tools to at the very least take this one down to the wire. Take Winthrop (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Nets v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Magic haven't won a game since February 21st and are in what appears to be a tough spot here playing the second of back-to-back nights off a tough loss in New York on Thursday. With that being said, I believe they're being given too many points here. The Nets have won six games in a row, including a come-from-behind victory in Indiana (without Kyrie Irving) two nights ago. I do question how easy it will be for the Nets to get up for this one against the slumping Magic, however. The Magic have played hard off a road loss over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 1.9 points per game in that situation, as is the case here. The Nets are outscoring opponents by just 5.2 points per game as a road favorite this season, well south of the spread we're dealing with tonight. Orlando has been getting healthier lately and we've seen signs of progress as it has gone 4-2 ATS over its last six games. I expect the Magic to use last night's close loss as a confidence-builder rather than a reason to be down on themselves here. Take Orlando (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Spurs v. Cavs +4.5 | 116-110 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over San Antonio at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Even without Demar Derozan, the Spurs have turned things around with consecutive wins over the Pistons and Bulls this week. I expect them to have a tough time staying up for this date with the lowly Cavs on Friday, however, with Derozan likely to miss once again. The Cavs finally won a game last time out with their young core showing up and showing out against the Celtics in a 117-110 victory. I look for some carry-over from that performance here. Note that the Spurs are just 6-16 ATS after winning three of their last four games over the last two seasons, outscored by 5.5 points on average in that situation. They're also a woeful 16-30 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by just 2.2 points per contest. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Utah State +4.5 v. Texas Tech | 53-65 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State plus the points over Texas Tech at 1:45 pm et on Friday. In what has the potential to be a very low-scoring game, I'll grab all the points I can get with Utah State on Friday afternoon. The Aggies, of course, fell in the Mountain West Tournament championship against a terrific San Diego State team by double-digits in front of a national audience on CBS last Saturday. With that result fresh in the minds of a lot of bettors, I can understand Texas Tech being installed as a considerable favorite here. With that being said, the Aggies have been a 'tough out' all season long and I expect that to hold true here today. While Texas Tech ranks highly in most offensive categories, including just outside the top-50 in offensive efficiency and the top-20 in floor percentage, it will be up against a very capable Aggies defense that ranks an impressive second in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 15th in opponents effective field goal percentage. It's certainly worth noting that Utah State ranks third in the country in total rebounding percentage compared to Texas Tech, which checks in 97th. The Aggies possess an active defense that ranks 13th in block percentage as well and sit 29th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Both teams are comfortable playing at a relatively slow pace - again in a game that has the potential to be low-scoring, with both teams capable of knocking down their free throws, I look for this one going down to the wire. Take Utah State (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Thunder +7 v. Hawks | 93-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams enter this game banged-up but I give the Thunder the considerable edge in terms of motivation. Oklahoma City is coming off a 21-point drubbing at the hands of the Bulls in Chicago two nights ago but that sets it up well here, noting that the Thunder have gone 8-1 ATS off a road loss this season, outscored by just 0.8 points per game in that spot. They're 29-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons, outscored by just 3.4 points per game on average. Meanwhile, the Hawks are a miserable 4-14 ATS after posting four or five ATS wins in their last six games over the last two seasons, outscored by a whopping 12.3 points per game in that situation. While we're obviously talking about a much stronger Atlanta squad than we've seen in past years', I do question how much the Hawks will be up for this one after winning six straight games, with their last three victories coming by double-digit margins. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Jazz v. Wizards +12 | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Utah at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Wizards have a quick turnaround here after losing on a last-second shot from De'Aaron Fox last night against the Kings. However, I would argue this is a much tougher game for Utah to get up for than Washington. The Jazz defeated the Celtics two nights ago in Boston and are playing in their third different time zone since the All-Star break having gone from Utah to San Francisco to Boston and now the short trip to Washington. Having gone just 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games, how interested are the Jazz in laying a beatdown on the Wiz here? Meanwhile, Washington has now lost five games in a row and would like nothing more than to play spoiler before heading on the road for three straight games in New York (one against the Nets and two against the Knicks). Note that while the Jazz are an impressive 15-5 ATS on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last three seasons, they've won those games by an average margin of just 4.6 points. The Wizards are 26-9 ATS when playing the second of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.4 points. Take Washington (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State +2 | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wichita State plus the points over Drake at 6:25 pm et on Thursday. All of the analytics seemingly point to Drake in this First Four matchup on Thursday night so it's not a surprise that the Bulldogs have flipped over to the favorite role. After a subpar showing in the AAC Tournament, however, I like the way this game sets up for Wichita State. Drake got off to a red hot start this season but injuries ultimately took their toll and the Bulldogs were never really able to regain that magic late, ultimately falling in the MVC Championship Game against Loyola-Chicago. The Bulldogs absolutely tore through their non-conference schedule but it was littered with beatable teams. Their season-opening win at Kansas State may have looked somewhat impressive at the time but the Wildcats turned out to be a Big 12 doormat. Meanwhile, Wichita State hung tough in key non-conference games against Missouri, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss, going 1-1-1 ATS. The Shockers also split a pair of matchups with eventual AAC champion Houston, going 2-0 ATS in the process. So many bettors were burned by Wichita State in its upset loss in the AAC Tournament semi-finals. We actually cashed a ticket fading them in the quarter-final round against South Florida last Friday (but lost with them on the ML against Cincinnati in the semis). Even with Drake getting healthier in time for this game (ShanQuan Hemphill is expected to return to the lineup for the first time since February), I believe the wrong team is favored in this one. Take Wichita State (10*). |
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03-17-21 | Sharks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Sharks on the puck-line on Monday and I don't see any reason not to back them again in Wednesday night's rematch in Vegas. The Sharks are 3-1 in their last four games, allowing just five goals in the process. As I noted in Monday's analysis, San Jose is as healthy as it has been all season so perhaps it's no surprise that it is finally playing well with some consistency. Note that the Sharks are 26-16 the last 42 times they've played with triple-revenge, as is the case here tonight. They've outscored opponents by 0.3 goals per game in that situation. The Knights have interestingly been at their worst after low-scoring games in recent years, going 8-16 after a game totaling three goals or less over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.8 goals per game in that spot. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (10*). |
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03-17-21 | Heat -1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 85-89 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Memphis at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are fading fast right now, losers of three games in a row, allowing their last two opponents to shoot a combined 89-for-156 (57%) from the field. They're back home tonight and catch the Heat in a back-to-back spot but that's certainly been factored into this line. Keep in mind, Memphis is actually a losing team at home this season where it has been outscored by 3.0 points per game on average. The Heat are an even 10-10 on the road but enter tonight's game riding a six-game winning streak away from home. Having held five straight opponents to 45.3% or worse shooting, I like the way the Heat have locked down on defense lately and I'm confident they can add to the Grizzlies woes on Wednesday night. Take Miami (10*). |
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03-17-21 | Kings v. Wizards -2.5 | 121-119 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Sacramento at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We cashed a ticket fading the Kings on Monday night in Charlotte and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they continue their eastern road swing in Washington. The Wizards have lost four straight games but they were underdogs in all four of those contests. This is clearly their best shot at a win on their current five-game homestand as a date with the Jazz looms tomorrow night. As I noted in Monday's analysis, the Kings have been awful following a loss this season and it ultimately boils down to poor coaching in my opinion. They've gone 6-17 ATS off a loss this season, outscored by 7.1 points on average in that situation. Under head coach Luke Walton, the Kings have gone 20-36 ATS following an ATS loss, outscored by 5.5 points per game on average. Look for the Wiz to bring an end to their losing streak here. Take Washington (10*). |
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03-16-21 | Knicks v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks stayed competitive and covered the spread last night in Brooklyn but certainly showed signs of fatigue, shooting just 40% from the field and really only staying in it thanks to the Nets general disinterest in putting the game away. We won with the 76ers in Sunday's rout of the undermanned Spurs and I'm anticipating another convincing victory here on Tuesday. Further to my fatigue comment regarding the Knicks, note that they allowed the Nets to shoot 58% from the field last night. With a number of key cogs currently out of the lineup, I don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot with New York heading home for a four-game homestand after this one. The 76ers continue to play without Joel Embiid but keep rolling along, winners of five games in a row ATS. They're a terrific positive momentum play having gone 14-4 ATS at home after scoring 115 points or more over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.6 points per game in that situation. They've generally been rock solid at home this season, where they outscore opponents by eight points per game, going 14-6 ATS in the process. The Knicks average 105.9 points per game when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 4.4 points. I expect them to have a tough time keeping within arm's reach for four quarters tonight. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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03-15-21 | Sharks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Sharks have quietly gotten themselves on a bit of a roll lately, winning three straight games and outscoring the opposition 12-3 in the process. While I'm not going to call for the outright upset in Vegas on Monday, I do expect San Jose to give the Knights all they can handle. Of course, the Sharks motivation level should be sky-high for this one as they've dropped all three meetings against Vegas this season, including consecutive losses on home ice earlier this month. While San Jose has gotten healthier with Tomas Hertl among those returning to the lineup, the Knights are still without big offseason acquisition Alex Pietrangelo. Vegas is coming off back-to-back wins in St. Louis on Friday and Saturday but is actually in a tough spot here, returning home off a long road trip. Note that the Knights have gone 0-4 (small sample size, I know) and have been outscored by a wide average margin of 2.2 goals when playing at home off at least three consecutive games on the road over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Sharks are a strong positive momentum play here having gone 12-4 when on the road after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.2 goals per game in that situation. Going back much further, the Sharks are 26-15 when in a triple-revenge situation, as is the case here. We'll grab the insurance goal with San Jose here, noting that it has gone 9-3 when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line over its last 12 contests. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (10*). |
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03-15-21 | Grizzlies v. Suns -7 | 99-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Memphis at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Grizzlies are coming off a fourth quarter meltdown in Oklahoma City yesterday as they dropped a 128-122 decision as a big road favorite. Now they're in tough as they play the second half of a back-to-back against what will be a highly-motivated Suns squad coming off a double-digit home loss against the Pacers two nights ago. Memphis ranks second in the league in pace rating over its last five contests and I believe that's precisely what will get it into trouble tonight. Note that the Suns rank fifth in the league on offensive rating at home this season while checking in sixth in defensive rating at home. I certainly don't expect to see the Grizzlies shoot better than 50% from the field again tonight after they knocked down 51% of their shots yesterday. This one has the potential to get away from Memphis as it plays for the fourth time since the All-Star break (in three different cities). It's worth noting that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 37-0 ATS in all games involving the Suns this season. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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03-14-21 | Cavs v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 82-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Cleveland at 7:35 pm et on Sunday. The Hawks avoided a possible 'trap' last night, dominating the Kings in a 121-106 victory. The fact that they're playing on back-to-back nights (and for the third time in four nights) is certainly being factored into the line here. I like the make-up of the Hawks rotation right now with Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic back healthy to contribute off the bench. Cam Reddish remains sidelined but let's face it, he's been a general disappointment in his sophomore season. The Cavs were playing reasonably well prior to the All-Star break but returned with a 34-point loss in New Orleans on Friday. Cleveland remains an awful road team and will face a motivated Hawks squad here after Atlanta dropped a 112-111 decision as eight-point favorites on the road against the Cavs back on February 23rd. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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03-14-21 | Spurs v. 76ers -2.5 | 99-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over San Antonio at 6:35 pm et on Sunday. The 76ers have faced some Covid-related adversity out of the All-Star break with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons sidelined in their first game back - a convincing win in Chicago - before Embiid returned for Friday's rout of the Wizards. Here, the Sixers draw another favorable matchup against the Spurs. San Antonio delivered a blowout victory at home against the Magic on Friday, successfully bouncing back from a loss in Dallas two nights earlier. The fact that the Spurs won that game on Friday without Demar Derozan was impressive but there's a big difference between beating a team like the Magic at home and going out on the road and competing with the red hot 76ers. I simply feel this line will prove too short, even if the 76ers are once again missing key cogs. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -2 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
05-25-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | 127-121 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
05-25-21 | Sun v. Storm -3 | 87-90 | Push | 0 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
05-24-21 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | 98-132 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
05-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
05-23-21 | Bruins v. Capitals +1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -222 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
05-22-21 | Storm -6 v. Wings | Top | 100-97 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
05-21-21 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
05-20-21 | Panthers +1.5 v. Lightning | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
05-19-21 | White Sox v. Twins +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
05-18-21 | Aces +1 v. Storm | 96-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
05-18-21 | Wizards v. Celtics -2 | 100-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
05-18-21 | Lynx -1.5 v. Liberty | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
05-14-21 | Sun -2.5 v. Dream | Top | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
05-13-21 | Canucks +1.5 v. Flames | 1-4 | Loss | -180 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
05-13-21 | Magic v. Hawks -13 | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
05-13-21 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
05-12-21 | Wild v. Blues +1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
05-12-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -6 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
05-08-21 | Thunder v. Warriors -14 | Top | 97-136 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
05-07-21 | Pelicans v. 76ers -9.5 | 107-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
05-05-21 | Avalanche v. Sharks +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
05-05-21 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | 3-6 | Loss | -154 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
05-04-21 | Oilers v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -141 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
05-04-21 | Warriors v. Pelicans -2.5 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
05-04-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Twins | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks -1 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
05-02-21 | Raptors v. Lakers -7 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
05-01-21 | Pistons v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 94-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies -10.5 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
04-30-21 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
04-29-21 | Pelicans -9 v. Thunder | Top | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
04-29-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
04-28-21 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 2-5 | Loss | -204 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
04-27-21 | Lightning v. Blackhawks +1.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -147 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
04-27-21 | Thunder v. Celtics -11.5 | 119-115 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
04-27-21 | Chelsea +0.5 v. Real Madrid | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
04-26-21 | Grizzlies +4 v. Nuggets | 96-120 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
04-25-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +6.5 | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
04-25-21 | Cavs v. Wizards -9.5 | Top | 110-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
04-25-21 | Royals v. Tigers +1.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
04-24-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
04-23-21 | Nuggets -2 v. Warriors | Top | 97-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
04-23-21 | Pirates +1.5 v. Twins | 0-2 | Loss | -146 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
04-22-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
04-21-21 | Suns -1 v. 76ers | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
04-21-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Yankees | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
04-20-21 | Hurricanes +1.5 v. Lightning | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
04-19-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 137-139 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
04-18-21 | Penguins v. Sabres +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
04-17-21 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 128-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
04-17-21 | Devils +1.5 v. Rangers | 3-6 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
04-15-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 | 120-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
04-15-21 | Devils +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
04-14-21 | Mavs -2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 114-113 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
04-13-21 | Celtics v. Blazers -1 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
04-12-21 | Jets v. Senators +1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
04-09-21 | Rockets +12 v. Clippers | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
04-09-21 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +2 | Top | 129-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga -4 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
04-03-21 | Thunder +11.5 v. Blazers | 85-133 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
04-03-21 | Mavs v. Wizards +6 | Top | 109-87 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
04-02-21 | Bulls +12.5 v. Jazz | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
03-31-21 | Flyers v. Sabres +1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
03-31-21 | Blazers v. Pistons +7 | Top | 124-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
03-30-21 | Magic +11.5 v. Clippers | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga -8 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor -7.5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
03-29-21 | Oregon State v. Houston -7.5 | 61-67 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
03-29-21 | Pacers v. Wizards +5 | Top | 124-132 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech +1 | Top | 84-62 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
03-27-21 | Oregon State v. Loyola-Chicago -6.5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
03-26-21 | Nets -5.5 v. Pistons | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
03-24-21 | Nets v. Jazz -8.5 | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
03-22-21 | Abilene Christian +5 v. UCLA | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Oregon State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Bulls -3 v. Pistons | Top | 100-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Magic +8.5 v. Celtics | 96-112 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
03-20-21 | Hornets +9.5 v. Clippers | 98-125 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
03-20-21 | Spurs v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 113-120 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Texas Southern v. Michigan -25 | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
03-20-21 | St Bonaventure +1.5 v. LSU | 61-76 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
03-19-21 | Winthrop +7 v. Villanova | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
03-19-21 | Nets v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
03-19-21 | Spurs v. Cavs +4.5 | 116-110 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
03-19-21 | Utah State +4.5 v. Texas Tech | 53-65 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | Thunder +7 v. Hawks | 93-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | Jazz v. Wizards +12 | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State +2 | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
03-17-21 | Sharks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
03-17-21 | Heat -1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 85-89 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
03-17-21 | Kings v. Wizards -2.5 | 121-119 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
03-16-21 | Knicks v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
03-15-21 | Sharks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
03-15-21 | Grizzlies v. Suns -7 | 99-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
03-14-21 | Cavs v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 82-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
03-14-21 | Spurs v. 76ers -2.5 | 99-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |