Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-03-21 | North Carolina -5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 14 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Virginia Tech at 6 pm et on Friday. A trip to Blacksburg isn't nearly as daunting as it once was. I love the way this one sets up for the Tar Heels who have their sights set on some lofty goals once again this season. North Carolina loses plenty of talent to the NFL - that's simply the sign of a great college team. The best programs don't need to rebuild, they simply reload, and I think that's the case with Mack Brown's Tar Heels. QB Sam Howell is back to run the offense and despite losing a host of talent at the running back and wide receiver positions, I expect this high-octane attack to keep humming along. This is obviously a big season for Howell as he's likely to be a highly-touted NFL draft pick next spring. First things first, he looks to guide this Tar Heels squad to another stellar campaign. While plenty of names have moved on, the cupboard is by no means bare. RB Ty Chandler transfers in from Tennessee and should run wild behind an offensive line that was terrific at opening up holes for the ground game last season and returns all five starters this year. There are questions at the wide receiver position but this is very much a 'plug-and-play' type offense and there's a host of talented receivers that have simply been waiting for their opportunity to step out of the shadows and into the spotlight. It shouldn't take long for this offense to start piling up points. The Tar Heels defense loses standout LB Chazz Surratt but that's about it. There's talent and experience all over the field. While the North Carolina offense gets all the press, the defense can play as well and I expect it to come out and make a statement against an overmatched Hokies offense here. Virginia Tech has managed to go just 19-18 SU over the last three seasons under head coach Justin Fuente. Keep in mind, the Hokies went 19-8 in Fuente's first two seasons as he reaped the benefits of Frank Beamer recruits. If it weren't for standout RB Khalil Herbert, the Hokies probably wouldn't have won five games last year. He's gone so now someone else will need to step up. Unfortunately, the Hokies don't have the benefit of a transfer like Chandler for the Tar Heels. The biggest issue might be on the offensive line where Virginia Tech lost two of its best starters to the transfer portal. It's going to take some time for the new look o-line to come together - the problem is the Hokies won't have the benefit of time here in Week 1 as the Tar Heels are capable of scoring in bunches. Virginia Tech's defense returns just six starters from a year ago. This simply isn't the same feared Hokies defense from the Frank Beamer era. Last season, Virginia Tech gave up just shy of 450 total yards per game and 32 points per contest. I'll admit, it's likely we'll see an improved defense here in 2021. Jordan Williams transfers in from Clemson to anchor the defensive line but there are still holes that I believe the Tar Heels will be able to expose over the course of four quarters on Friday. All of North Carolina's road games this season are winnable, with the toughest test coming at Notre Dame on the final Saturday in October. If the Tar Heels are going to reach their goals, they need to get off to a fast start and I'm certain the Hokies will have their full attention this week. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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08-31-21 | Yankees -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
A.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way the Yankees are set up to bounce back from last night's series-opening loss here in Anaheim on Tuesday. In fact, New York has dropped three games in a row following an extended winning streak. Don't expect the Yanks losing ways to continue here as they look to tee off on Anaheim starter Jaime Barria. He's by no means a long-term solution in the Angels starting rotation. He's been used out of necessity this season, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. While those numbers aren't all bad, the wheels have come off lately as he has recorded a 9.72 ERA and 2.52 WHIP over his last three outings, covering a span of just 8 1/3 innings of work. Barria isn't fooling anyone right now, topping out at five strikeouts over his last seven starts. It's not as if the Halos bullpen is likely to rescue Barria here, noting that the L.A. relief corps has posted a collective 5.49 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over their last seven games. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for New York. Like Barria, he has struggled lately. However, he faces an Angels lineup that has been a true 'feast-or-famine' group lately. The Yankees check in 7-5 in Taillon's 12 road starts this season. The big difference here is that behind Taillon is a capable Yankees bullpen that has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with an incredible 24:7 save conversion ratio on the road this season. There's reason to believe the Yankees bats can eventually stretch out the winning margin in this one so we'll lay the extra run. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-30-21 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Houston at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Mariners picked up a much-needed victory to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Royals yesterday afternoon. Now I look for them to build some positive momentum as they open a home series against the Astros on Monday. Luis Garcia will get the nod for Houston. He's admittedly pitched well this season, but much of his success has come at home. In 11 road starts he has recorded a 4.97 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with the Astros winning just six of his 13 starts. Note that the M's will be seeing him for the third time this season and in their most recent look they got to him early and often, scoring five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in an 11-8 victory here in Seattle. Chris Flexen, like Garcia, has also been better at home than on the road this season. Lately though, it hasn't mattered where he has pitched, he's been rock solid. Flexen has posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last three outings - all Seattle victories. He is winless in two outings against Houston this season but catches the Astros at the right time here as they've plated just 26 runs over their last seven games combined. While the M's bullpen has quietly posted a 1.07 WHIP at home this season, the Astros 'pen has recorded a 1.50 WHIP on the road (entering yesterday's action). Take Seattle +1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-29-21 | Browns v. Falcons +6 | 19-10 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Cleveland at 8 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons have looked awful in their first two preseason games. They'll have a shot at redeeming themselves on Sunday night as they host the 2-0 Browns in front of a national audience. Note that Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski has surprisingly announced that QB Baker Mayfield and a 'select group' of starters will play in this game - an about face after the majority of his starters hadn't played a single snap in the first two preseason games. I'm still not expecting much more than a cameo appearance from Browns starters here. Falcons first-year head coach Arthur Smith has also suggested that some of his starters will play on Sunday night. Again, don't expect much more than a cameo appearance. Atlanta essentially punted last week's game in Miami, attempting just 15 passes in a 37-17 loss. Smith will certainly want his team to go into the season feeling good about themselves. Note that while the Browns are 2-0 they've faced the Jaguars and Giants - two teams that enter Week 3 sporting a combined 0-4 record. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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08-28-21 | Chargers v. Seahawks -5 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Saturday. I said it last week and I'll say it again here, the Chargers don't care about the preseason. Or should I say they don't care about their preseason win-loss record anyway. Head coach Brandon Staley has made a point to not play his starters throughout the preseason schedule and his number one goal will simply be keeping everyone healthy and ready to go for the start of the regular season here tonight. The Seahawks don't really care about the preseason either - not this year anyway. With that being said, they are coming off a 30-3 drubbing at the hands of the Broncos here at home last week so I do think they'll at the very least want to put their best foot forward and turn in a cleaner performance here as they wrap things up against the Chargers. Seattle backup quarterbacks Sean Mannion and Alex McGough have shown the ability to move the football. They struggled against an aggressive (by preseason standards) Denver pass rush last week but should fare better against the Chargers less aggressive front here tonight. Take Seattle (8*). |
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08-28-21 | UTEP -9 v. New Mexico State | Top | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 465 h 11 m | Show |
College Football Game of the Month. My selection is on UTEP minus the points over New Mexico State at 9:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th. C-USA media members have the UTEP Miners slated to finish in last place in the West Division this season. I believe that the potential is there for a much better campaign, however. The Miners haven't had much recent success to boast about. They've gone a miserable 5-27 going back to the 2018 season but three of those victories came in eight games last season. Here, they have an excellent opportunity to get off to a fast start with this road tilt against New Mexico State followed by their home opener against FCS squad Bethune-Cookman. This is a team that has lofty goals this season, believing it can exceed expectations and reach a Bowl game. Note that UTEP was favored in only three games all of last season and won all three by an average margin of 14 points. UTEP returns the bulk of the squad that won those three games last season. On offense, there's finally some continuity with QB Gavin Hardison back under center. In the backfield, the potential is there for a breakout campaign from RB Deion Hankins who returns after rushing for nearly 600 yards and nine scores as a redshirt freshman last season. The Miners also have an excellent 1-2 punch at wide receiver with Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett. There are questions on the offensive line after a shaky 2020 campaign, but with plenty of experience returning there's reason for optimism. Defensively, the Miners draw a favorable matchup against an Aggies offense that has been punchless over the last couple of seasons (keep in mind New Mexico State didn't play a single game in 2020 due to Covid). UTEP has a true star on the outside in DE Praise Amaewhule, who finds himself on the Bednarik Award Watch List for the nation's best defensive player. He could quickly climb up the NFL Draft board should he repeat or improve on his incredible 2020 performance. UTEP's secondary could be leaky early on, but this is a matchup where I expect its pass rush to give the Aggies little time to get the football down the field for big plays. The Miners are set on the defensive line and should devour a New Mexico State offensive line that lacks continuity and will need time to come together as a unit. There's a QB competition ongoing for New Mexico State with junior Jonah Johnson trying to hold off Weston Eget. Eget was more effective in the team's first of two Spring games against non-FBS opponents but injured his ankle early on and missed crucial practice time as a result. Johnson struggled against the likes of Dixie State and Tarleton State and I question how he will perform should he get the nod against the Miners vaunted pass rush here. While the Aggies should have a solid backfield, again this is a tough opening matchup against a good defensive line. Defensively, the Aggies allowed their two FCS opponents in the Spring to rush for over five yards per carry. Meanwhile, they failed to come up with a single interception. While I realize they've had plenty of practice time since then and those two results don't tell the entire story, this is a defensive unit that is unrecognizable compared to the 2019 edition and I simply feel it's going to take time to round into form. Take UTEP (10*). |
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08-28-21 | Cubs v. White Sox -1.5 | 7-0 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the White Sox -1.5 runs over the Cubs at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The White Sox bats are on fire once again and I don't see Alec Mills and his 6.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over his last three starts slowing them down on Saturday night. Meanwhile, Sox starter Lance Lynn took a hard-luck no decision in Toronto earlier this week but Chicago remains 7-2 in his last nine outings, including an 8-6 victory over these same Cubs at Wrigley Field. Lynn owns a sparkling 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 14 home starts this season. With Lynn likely to work deep into the ball game and the White Sox bats in excellent form (27 runs last two games) to support him, look for a lopsided victory for the home side here. Take the White Sox -1.5 runs (6*). |
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08-28-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Arizona at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. The D'Backs have put up plenty of offense in the first two games in this series but only managed a 1-1 split. I look for them to run out of gas on Saturday as they fall short of the desperate Phillies in the third game in this series. Philadelphia did well to bail itself out of a mess in the 11th inning last night, ultimately securing a 7-6 walk-off win. That should give it some much-needed confidence ahead of another very winnable game against the lowly Snakes on Saturday. Kyle Gibson has been terrific since joining the Phils and he'll be asked to step up with another solid performance here. He owns a 2.25 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over his last three outings. Meanwhile, Humberto Mejia is only being used as a stop-gap for a poor D'Backs rotation. He pitched reasonably well against the Pirates in his last start but has generally struggled in four career big league outings, allowing eight earned runs on 19 hits in only 15 innings of work. Behind him is an awful Arizona bullpen that showed its ugly side again last night. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (5*). |
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08-26-21 | Aces -10.5 v. Dream | Top | 78-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Thursday. Atlanta gave Chicago all it could handle two nights ago but again fell short by six points to remain winless since returning from the Olympic break. Now with a host of key injuries and absences it will be hard-pressed to bounce back as it welcomes what is sure to be a fired up Aces squad coming off a tough loss in Connecticut. Las Vegas has already handled the Dream with ease once this season, rolling to a 118-95 win back on July 4th (we won with the Aces and the 'over' on that night). With A'ja Wilson coming off a ridiculous (and highly uncharacteristic) 1-of-15 shooting performance against an elite Sun squad two nights ago we can expect her to lead the bounce-back charge here. Note that the Aces also got poor performances from generally steady contributors in Jackie Young, Riquna Williams and Kelsey Plum in that loss. The Dream appeared headed for another blowout loss on Tuesday before they caught fire shooting the ball in the second half. That was of course after Chicago had already built up a sizable lead and let down its guard defensively. Things have gone downhill in a hurry for the Dream who didn't exactly start the season on the right foot. A suspension to Chennedy Carter has been key to their regression but the fact is, when you shoot below 41% from the field at home and average fewer than 79 points per game, you're not going to find much success in today's WNBA. Las Vegas has shown the ability to win by margin on the road this season. Two of its last three road victories have come by 16 points or more. Note that the Aces haven't suffered any sort of drop-off in execution defensively on the road this season, holding opponents to 80.3 points per game on 41.6% shooting. I suspect this will be a situation where the Aces clamp down on the Dream offense, ultimately opening things up for their offense to rebound off Tuesday's poor showing. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
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08-24-21 | Sparks v. Mystics +1.5 | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Los Angeles at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Sparks have reeled off four straight wins coming out of the Olympic break but I expect that streak to end here on Tuesday night in Washington. Keep in mind, L.A.'s four wins have come against the likes of Indiana, Atlanta (twice) and New York - three of the league's worst teams. The Mystics would also appear to fit in that category based on their 8-14 record but I expect them to rise to the occasion here. Note that Washington has had a tough slate of opponents since returning from the break, going up against the Aces (twice) and Mercury on the road before hosting the defending champion Storm on Sunday. While the Mystics dropped all four of those games SU they did manage to go 2-2 ATS with one of the missed covers coming by a single point. Washington will have to deal with the absence of leading scorer Tina Charles for this one but it got a big boost with the return of Elena Delle Donne last time out so Charles' injury doesn't serve as quite as much of a blow. If the Mystics are to have any hopes of climbing the Eastern Conference standings and making a run at the postseason they need to win games like this - the second instalment of a five-game homestand. Los Angeles has played just three road games since the middle of June, losing two of those. While the Sparks are finally healthy, I still don't consider them to be one of the league's elite teams. Note that despite holding the Liberty to 41.3% shooting on Sunday (and shooting better than 47% from the field themselves), they were still outrebounded by a 45-36 margin. They'll face a Mystics squad that managed to outrebound the Storm 48-45 despite shooting 36.8% from the field in Sunday's setback. The Sparks have dropped each of their last two visits to Washington and I look for the Mystics to get the better of them here as well. Take Washington (10*). |
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08-22-21 | 49ers -5 v. Chargers | 15-10 | Push | 0 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. The Niners did a lot of good things but ultimately fell by a 19-16 score against Kansas City in their preseason opener. Meanwhile, the Chargers defeated the Rams despite scoring just 13 points last week. Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley, along with the Chargers players, have made it clear that they don't care about the preseason (wins and losses anyway). Their starters will once again be on the sidelines for this one. Meanwhile, the 49ers should again give Jimmy Garropolo and Trey Lance extended looks in this one. All reports pointed to the fact that the Niners two quarterbacks looked sharp in 7-on-7 drills during joint practices with the Chargers this week and I expect to see some carry-over here. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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08-21-21 | Titans v. Bucs -1 | 34-3 | Loss | -108 | 59 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Tennessee at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. The Bucs laid an egg in their preseason opener. After jumping ahead with a first quarter touchdown, their offense failed to reach the end zone again in a 19-14 loss against the Bengals, at home no less, last Saturday. Here, I look for a strong bounce-back performance from Bruce Arians' squad. While preseason results mean very little in the grand scheme of things (at least from a win-loss perspective), after a performance where they allowed four sacks and threw two interceptions, I think Arians will want to see a much cleaner performance from his team this week. The Titans on the other hand, rolled to a blowout win in Atlanta last Friday night. Mike Vrabel has still only managed a 3-6 preseason record in 2+ years guiding Tennessee. It's not as if the Titans backup QB duo of Logan Woodside and Matt Barkley was all that impressive in last week's win, it was more of a case of Atlanta not offering much resistance whatsoever. I expect a different story to unfold here. We go from the Bucs laying nearly a touchdown against the Bengals last week to now being virtually a pk'em against the Titans. I simply feel it's an overreaction to last week's 'meaningless' Week 1 preseason results. Take Tampa Bay (9*). |
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08-20-21 | Chiefs -2 v. Cardinals | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
NFLX TV Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Arizona at 8 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the short number with the Chiefs as they travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals in front of a national ESPN audience on Friday. Both of these teams were victorious by identical 19-16 scores last week as the Chiefs defeated the Niners in San Francisco and the Cardinals took down the Cowboys here at home. It's worth noting that Arizona's victory came thanks to a pair of Matt Prater field goals inside the game's final two minutes (foiling our play on the Cowboys plus the points). Kyler Murray is expected to see his first action of the preseason for the Cardinals. He has already stated that he 'hates the preseason' and puts virtually no stock in what happens on the field. With WRs DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green and RB James Conner on and off the field due to various ailments, he may not have his full compliment of weapons during what should be a brief appearance in the first half on Friday. Also note that depth WR Andy Isabella will miss this game due to Covid protocols. Behind Murray in the QB rotation is the capable but underwhelming duo of Colt McCoy and Chris Streveler. Note that the Cards went 1-3 in the preseason in their first year under head coach Kliff Kingsbury back in 2019. So they're in uncharted territory in a sense as they look for their second consecutive preseason win here. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has said that he will play his starters for most, if not all of the first half on Friday. While it remains to be seen whether that means we'll see a full half from QB Pat Mahomes (probably not), I still think we're going to see Kansas City put forth a fairly serious effort (by preseason standards) as they look to go 2-0 on the road. The Chiefs offense will be facing a Cardinals defense that won't have the services of J.J. Watt or Chandler Jones. Kansas City doesn't have a top-flight QB rotation by any means but I do like the veteran presence of Chad Henne and Shane Buechele did show he can move the ball down the field with his arm and his legs in last week's victory (8-of-11 passing and three runs for 13 yards). I simply feel we'll see a little better execution from the Chiefs for four quarters than we will from the Cardinals as Kansas City is a road favorite for a reason. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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08-20-21 | Storm -8 v. Liberty | 99-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 7 pm et on Friday. The Storm were once again without USA Olympic Gold Medal winners Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart in the first of this two-game set two nights ago. Still, Seattle led that game by double-digits entering the fourth quarter. It couldn't make that lead stand up, however, as it was held to just seven points in a brutal fourth quarter on its way to a four-point loss. I expect a strong bounce-back performance with Bird and Stewart expected back in the lineup on Friday (note that Bird will be playing what could be her final game in here hometown of New York). Seattle has now dropped consecutive games coming out of the break but the fact that it was right there at the end of both of those games despite missing key cogs is encouraging. With championship pedigree, I'm confident we'll see the Storm bring their best effort on Friday. The Liberty shot an uncharacteristic 51.7% from the field in Wednesday's come-from-behind win. Note that they shoot worse than 44% at home this season. Interestingly, the SU winner has gone a perfect 23-0 ATS in all Liberty games this season. I certainly look for the Storm to get back on the winning side here, and believe they'll cover this reasonable spread. Take Seattle (10*). |
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08-19-21 | Edmonton Elks +4.5 v. BC | Top | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over B.C. at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Elks are off to a very disappointing 0-2 start, especially considering their first two games were played at home, against seemingly inferior East Division opponents no less. Expect them to bounce back on Thursday as they hit the road for the first time this season and play their first division game. In Week 1, it was all about a lack of execution for Edmonton as it marched up and down the field but simply couldn't finish drives with touchdowns against the RedBlacks. Last week, the Elks were simply overmatched by an Alouettes squad that came out firing on all cylinders on both sides of the football, but particularly on defense as they were all over Elks QB Trevor Harris all night long. I think the case can certainly be made that the Elks overlooked the Als. They won't make the same mistake against the Lions, who are coming off an upset win on the road against the Stampeders. The news has now come out that Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell has a broken fibula and all indications are that he was playing hurt in last week's game against B.C. Credit for the Lions for coming up with the win, but let's not get too excited. They're still dealing with injury issues to starting QB Mike Reilly with reports from practice this week indicating that he is still having trouble pushing the football down the field. While he is expected to start on Thursday night you can take that news with a grain of salt as we've seen plenty of mystery around the QB position in B.C. already this season. While the Lions offensive line held up well last week, I still think it's an area of concern with big offseason acquisition Ryker Matthews sidelined due to a head injury. He isn't expected to be cleared to play this Thursday night. This one really comes down to whether we can trust the Elks offense. If Edmonton is going to turn things around, that's the area that needs to improve the most and I'm confident we'll see just that on the fast track at B.C. Place on Thursday. This is an ultra-talented group led by veteran QB Trevor Harris and WR Greg Ellingson. After being held to just one catch for one yard last week, I believe we can bank on a big bounce-back performance from Ellingson in particular. Harris was given no time to operate against the Als retooled pass rush but should find the going a little easier against the Lions this week. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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08-19-21 | Patriots v. Eagles +1.5 | 35-0 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New England at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll make the case that the wrong team is being favored in this NFLX Week 2 kickoff matchup between the Patriots and Eagles. Yes, New England is 1-0 while Philadelphia checks in 0-1. You can be sure the Eagles are putting some emphasis on winning this game, which is their final home preseason game before wrapping up their exhibition schedule with a trip to New York to face the Jets next Friday. They actually got off to a terrific start in their opener against the Steelers last week jumping ahead 13-0 before the Steelers left them in the dust in the second half. That was a Pittsburgh squad that had a leg up having already played a preseason game. Here, the Eagles will have a more level playing field against New England with both teams having played just once. Mac Jones was the story for the Patriots last week as he impressed in a 22-13 win over the Washington Football Team. He could very well impress again this week but he's going to once again have to concede some playing time to projected starter Cam Newton, who hasn't looked particularly sharp this summer. RB Rhamondre Stevenson was also a big story for the Pats last week, putting the game away with a late 91-yard touchdown run. Keep in mind, outside of that big run he was held to just 4.0 yards per rush. As I mentioned, the Eagles did do a lot of good things in head coach Nick Sirianni's debut last week. We can expect QB Jalen Hurts to see more extensive playing time on Thursday night as Sirianni looks to give him some confidence running the offense after he made only a cameo appearance last week. Of course, Philadelphia boasts one of the stronger preseason quarterback rotations you'll find with Hurts followed by two experienced QB's in Joe Flacco and Nick Mullens. I like their depth at all of the skill positions on offense with impressive rookies WR Quez Watkins and RB Kenneth Gainwell likely to see plenty of action on Thursday as well. It's worth noting that while New England did manage to win by nine points last week, Washington did find some success passing the football, racking up 245 yards through the air - nearly doubling the Patriots production in that category. Washington also held a 22-16 first down edge. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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08-19-21 | Angels v. Tigers +1.5 | 13-10 | Loss | -147 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Angels will be looking for the sweep of the Tigers at Comerica Park on Thursday afternoon but I expect Detroit to have other ideas. Jose Quintana is back for our fading pleasure for the first time since late May. That's music to the ears of the Tigers as they've reeled off four straight wins over left-handed starters and actually own a winning record against southpaws this season. In fact, they're 23-8 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line in their last 31 games against LH starters. Quintana has of course been a train wreck this season, posting an ERA north of seven and a WHIP approaching two. Behind Quintana is an Angels bullpen that has been overworked this season and hasn't had a day off in over a week. Matt Manning got off to a brutal start for the Tigers this season but has shown signs of righting the ship lately. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in two of his last three starts and owns a respectable 3.15 ERA in four home starts this season. The Tigers are 3-1 in those four home starts with two of the victories coming against playoff contenders in the Cardinals and White Sox. Keep in mind, the Detroit bullpen, while also overworked has managed to convert 15 saves while blowing only six here at home this season. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (6*). |
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08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals +1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -158 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Cardinals dropped the opener of this series by a 2-0 score last night as Corbin Burnes outdueled Adam Wainwright. We're being afforded the opportunity to back the Cardinals plus an insurance run in what should be another pitcher's duel on Wednesday and we'll take advantage. Freddy Peralta will take the ball for Milwaukee. The Brewers have won each of his last four starts. That's not their longest win streak with Peralta on the hill this season, however, as they actually won each of his five starts from May 16th to June 10th. It's worth noting though that they've yet to win five straight Peralta starts by multiple runs, something they'll be looking to do here. I expect them to fall short noting that they've won just once in Peralta's four previous starts against the Cardinals. In his lone previous outing here in St. Louis, the Brewers lost by a 5-2 score. Jack Flaherty will counter for St. Louis. He returned from injury to shut out the Royals over six innings in his last start. He's been positively dominant here at home this season, recording a 1.44 ERA and 0.72 WHIP with the Cardinals winning each of his previous four starts. Behind Flaherty is a Cards bullpen that has been terrific lately. They entered last night's game sporting a collective 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over their last seven games and proceeded to toss three shutout innings in that 2-0 loss. Take St. Louis +1.5 runs (7*). |
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08-14-21 | Dolphins v. Bears -3.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 126 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Saturday. The Bears are one of the biggest favorites on the NFL preseason Week 1 board and they're favored for a reason in my opinion. Chicago is in desperate need of a spark right out of the gate following another disappointing campaign. The Bears boast arguably the best QB rotation in the preseason with veterans Andy Dalton and Nick Foles book-ending potential standout rookie Justin Fields. Any or all of the three are capable of guiding the offense on touchdown drives against the Dolphins on Saturday. Meanwhile, Miami has already been dealing with a number of key injuries at training camp and I see it as a team that is simply looking to come out of this game unscathed injury-wise, with perhaps a few positive moments from QB Tua Tagovailoa to take away as well. The Dolphins may give veteran backup QB Jacoby Brissett the bulk of the snaps in this one but he's learning a new offense with unfamiliar faces after coming over from the Colts. The Dolphins are reportedly active in the trade market right now as they look for help on the offensive line. That's obviously not a good sign - again, they'll simply be looking to turn in a clean performance and avoid any more injuries and certainly won't look to put their quarterbacks under too much duress in this one. Expect a rather 'safe' offensive gameplan from the 'Fins in this one. |
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08-13-21 | Cowboys +1.5 v. Cardinals | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Arizona at 10 pm et on Friday. The Cowboys failed to reach the end zone in their preseason opener against the Steelers last week and that ugly loss in front of a national audience is a big reason why they're catching points against NFC West sleeper squad Arizona on Friday night. I do expect to see progression from Dallas in this one. The Cowboys offense struggled last week but that was expected as we rarely see sharp performances in the Hall of Fame Game and they were up against a Steelers defense that erased big plays by loading up the secondary as they looked to evaluate corners in that contest. The Cardinals obviously have plenty of starpower but their starters will likely see just a cameo appearance in this one. After Kyler Murray, we're likely to see journeyman QB Colt McCoy and former CFL standout Chris Streveler see the bulk of the snaps with the rest of the backups (and beyond) in this one. Neither instill a great deal of confidence against a Cowboys defense that has already seen game action, and also benefited from the opportunity to take part in joint practices with the Rams this past weekend. Take Dallas (10*). |
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08-13-21 | Toronto +6.5 v. Winnipeg | 7-20 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Argos are coming off a stunning 23-20 win over the Stampeders on a last-minute field goal last week. Of course, that victory doesn't look quite as impressive after Calgary dropped a 15-9 decision at home against B.C. last night. With that being said, I do expect Toronto to once again turn in a quality performance away from home against the defending champion Blue Bombers on Friday night. I'm confident we'll see Toronto effectively shorten this game by pounding away with top-flight RB John White. Keep in mind, the Bombers will be without their best run stopped in Steve 'Stove' Richardson for this one while stud edge rushers Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffcoat are also questionable to suit up (I'm making this play with the expectation that both do play). Winnipeg got a tremendous performance from veteran QB Zach Collaros in last week's win over Hamilton. Collaros was comfortable in the pocket all night long thanks to a strong effort from the Winnipeg o-line. I do think we'll see him under duress far more often in this one, however. I still rate the Bombers as having one of the league's weaker wide receiving corps, especially with Darvin Adams and Ardarius Stewart sidelined due to injury. Take Toronto (8*). |
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08-13-21 | Titans v. Falcons | 23-3 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Tennessee at 7 pm et on Friday. Everyone is high on the Titans entering the 2021 season and for good reason. They added Julio Jones to an already dynamic offense and should be poised to go on another playoff run. That of course means little in the preseason, however. We're only likely to see cameo appearances from the Titans starters here. Note that Tennessee has only managed to win two of eight preseason games under the guidance of head coach Mike Vrabel going back to 2018. The Falcons have a new head coach in Arthur Smith and the former Titans offensive coordinator could certainly put a little extra stock in beating his former team here. I like the Falcons QB rotation a little more than that of the Titans with Feleipe Franks likely to see the bulk of the action in the second half. I like Franks mobility here as he should be able to extend plays against the Titans defensive backups. Keep in mind, Tennessee doesn't have an elite defense to begin with so when you get into the second and third level on the depth chart, there's reason for optimism when it comes to the Falcons offense. Take Atlanta (5*). |
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08-12-21 | BC v. Calgary -7 | 15-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Calgary minus the points over B.C. at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. Our two losses in CFL action last week came on plays involving these teams as we suffered an epic bad beat with the Riders in B.C.'s incredible comeback loss (but cover) while the Stampeders blew a second half lead (and cover) in a field goal loss to the Argos. Here, I like the way this one sets up as a big bounce-back game for the Stamps at home. B.C. had a miserable 2019 season and it might be in for a similar fate here in 2021 if Week 1 was any indication. Yes, give the Lions credit for not quitting and rallying back to nearly steal a win after falling behind 31-0 in the first half in Saskatchewan. However, the fact that it dug such a hole was telling. The Lions defense is saying all the right things heading into this one as it did hold an excellent Riders offense to just one second half point in last week's 33-29 loss, however that had everything to do with game flow. The Riders offense quite simply took its foot off the gas after building that 31-0 lead. B.C. won't be so fortunate here as the Stampeders come into this one in a foul mood after a disappointing season-opening loss at home. There were a lot of positives for Calgary to take away from last week's game. The offense was able to march the football up and down the field and just as easily could have put up 30+ point were it not for some miscues at the end of drives. That probably should have been expected with QB Bo Levi Mitchell missing considerable time in the 2019 season and then having no preseason games to get back in rhythm here this year. I do expect to see progression from the Calgary offense this week. Defensive, the Stamps were terrific last week, making a number of splash plays. Now they get too tee off on a weak Lions offensive line that will be without big offseason acquisition OL Ryker Matthews. Rookie QB Nathan Rourke is expected to start under center but don't be surprised if we see plenty of Michael Reilly as well. I'm not sure either are a great option at this point with Rourke still trying to learn the CFL game and Reilly clearly playing at less than 100%. Take Calgary (10*). |
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08-12-21 | Washington Football Team -2 v. Patriots | Top | 13-22 | Loss | -108 | 85 h 31 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington minus the points over New England at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. If a road team is favored in Week 1 of the NFL preseason, there's usually a valid reason for it. I believe that statement holds true in this matchup as the Washington Football Team travels to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots. Washington head coach Ron Rivera sounds like he's taking the preseason seriously right out of the gate this season, indicating his starters are likely to see extended playing time on Thursday night. Whether or not that will actually be the case remains to be seen but regardless, I like the mentality he's building in his team that these preseason games are important. Here's a telling quote from Rivera from the weekend, “I think we have to grow and mature as a football team. I don’t think we can show up and automatically assume we’re gonna pick up where we left off last year.'' Washington boasts a very capable QB rotation with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taylor Heinecke, Kyle Allen and Colorado U standout Steven Montez. The Patriots have been dealing with a number of injuries over the past week and will simply look to come out of this preseason opener healthy. Yes, rookie QB Mac Jones pushing veteran Cam Newton is a popular storyline at Patriots camp but the reality is Newton will more than likely begin the season as the starter, even though he has reportedly struggled in the early stages of training camp. He'll likely see only a cameo appearance on Thursday while Jones is still learning the offense and has spent more of his time working with the 'ones' at camp, and might struggle should he be on the field with backups on Thursday. Behind Newton and Jones will be veteran Brian Hoyer and Jake Dolegala. That duo inspires little confidence in the Pats ability to find much second half offensive success in this one. Take Washington (10*). |
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08-09-21 | Marlins v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Miami at 10:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the Padres yesterday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them as they open a series against the Marlins on Monday night. Zach Thompson will take the ball for Miami. Unfortunately, he's in a tough spot here, making his second consecutive start on just four days' rest. The Marlins are winless in his four road starts this season, where he's averaged just a shade over four innings per start. That spells trouble for an overworked Marlins bullpen that hasn't had a day off since July 29th. Note that Thompson has topped out at three strikeouts or less in three of his last four starts after posting six or more K's in four of his first five outings. Here, he'll be facing the Padres for the second time this season after suffering a 5-2 loss against them at home back on July 23rd. He lasted only five innings in that start, allowing three earned runs on six hits while striking out only three and walking one. Joe Musgrove will counter for San Diego. We actually cashed a ticket fading him in his most recent start in Oakland. That was no fault of his, however, as he allowed only one earned run on two hits over six innings. Now Musgrove is back home where he owns a 2.52 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this season. He faced the Marlins once this season, allowing two earned runs over six innings, also matched up against Thompson in that 5-2 win back on July 23rd. Like the Marlins 'pen, the Padres bullpen has also been overworked this season. However, they've still managed to pitch well, recording a collective 2.65 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 23 saves converted and only seven blown here at home. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-08-21 | Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on the Dodgers -1.5 runs over the Angels at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Dodgers bounced back from a disappointing extra innings loss on Friday with a come-from-behind 5-3 victory last night. I look for them to pick up right where they left off on Sunday as they wrap up the series win in convincing fashion. Reid Detmers will get a second straight turn in the rotation for the Angels despite pitching poorly in his big league debut. Detmers was actually favored in that start, at home against the A's, but ultimately lost the game by a lopsided 8-3 score. He gave up six hits and six earned runs, including two home runs, while striking out only two and walking two over 4 1/3 innings. It's hard to envision him faring much better against an even tougher opponent here. While the Angels bullpen has pitched better lately, this is by no means an ideal spot as they've posted a collective 5.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in day games this season. To make matters worse, the Halos inexplicably haven't had a day off since way back on July 21st. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will hand the ball to Walker Buehler. All he's done in 13 home starts this season is post a 2.16 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Better still, he has recorded a sparkling 0.47 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in three daytime outings with the Dodgers winning all three of those games. The Dodgers bullpen has of course been effective at home this season, recording a collective 3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 18 saves converted and only nine blown (entering last night's action). Take the Dodgers -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-07-21 | Toronto v. Calgary -5 | 23-20 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary minus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Full writeups will return for Week 2. I’ll give the Stamps the benefit of the doubt in their home opener and feel this line will prove too short. With a healthy Bo Levi Mitchell the Stamps are eager to put the 2019 season behind them. While there are plenty of new faves, the cupboard is always well stocked in Calgary. Toronto has the potential to make some noise in the East Division this season but this is a tough Week 1 road matchup against one of the West Division’s perennially elite teams. Take Calgary (6*). |
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08-06-21 | BC v. Saskatchewan -6.5 | 29-33 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Saskatchewan minus the points over B.C. at 9:30 pm et on Friday. I actually thought we'd see an opening line closer to double-digits for this one as the Lions travel to Regina to face the Riders. The Lions have high hopes coming off a disastrous 2019 campaign where they simply couldn't keep veteran QB Mike Reilly upright due to major issues in pass protection. However, Reilly is already dealing with shoulder issues and while he's likely to start on Friday night, whether he can finish the game probably depends on how well the Lions new-look offensive line holds up. While I absolutely love the make up of the Lions receiving corps, I have questions whether they can hit the ground running against a terrific Roughriders secondary led by Ed Gainey on Friday night. RB Shaq Cooper was B.C.'s big offseason acquisition but he isn't expected to play in this game leaving backfield duties in the hands of ex-XFL RB James Butler. If the Lions aren't able to consistently run the football there's little reason to expect anything other than for the Riders defense to pin back its ears and tee off on Reilly. Offensively, the Riders return virtually all of the key pieces from their West Division-winning roster two years ago. QB Cody Fajardo is one of the CFL's stars but perhaps doesn't get talked about enough. With aggressive play-caller Jason Maas taking over offensive coordinator duties, the sky should be the limit for the Riders passing game. With that being said, Saskatchewan also boasts one of the league's best running backs in William Powell and I expect him to find plenty of room to run against an average Lions defensive front. While the Riders defense loses four starters from the 2019 edition - mostly up front - the cupboard is by no means bare and defensive coordinator is a true up-and-comer in CFL coaching ranks after taking over for Chris Jones two years ago. Take Saskatchewan (8*). |
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08-02-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto -0.5 runs first five innings over Cleveland at 3:05 pm et on Monday. The Jays are coming off a three-game sweep of the Royals as they made their triumphant return to Rogers Center in Toronto. Now I look for them to get off to a fine start against the Indians on Monday as well. Cleveland limps into this series off another series loss at the hands of the White Sox. Here, they'll hand the ball to Eli Morgan who gets another turn in the rotation despite his struggles. The Jays actually faced Morgan in his first big league start earlier this season, scoring six earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings. Morgan hasn't been a whole lot better since, failing to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last six starts, allowing at least three earned runs in each of those contests. He's allowed seven home runs in his last four starts alone. Toronto will counter with Robbie Ray. He's quietly anchored the Jays rotation this season, posting a 3.04 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 20 starts. Better still, he owns a 2.45 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in six daytime outings. He'll have the benefit of facing the Indians for the first time in his career on Monday. By playing the first five innings only we should avoid the bullpens in this one. That's notable as I give the Indians a slight edge in that department. Take Toronto -0.5 runs first five innings (5*). |
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07-25-21 | Canada v. Costa Rica | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Gold Cup Game of the Year. My selection is on Costa Rica pk'em (draw no bet) over Canada at 7 pm et on Sunday. Credit Canada for battling through key injuries to Jonathan David and Alphonso Davies to get to this stage of the tournament but now with striker Cyle Larin and midfield Ayo Akinola missing due to injury as well, I believe getting past an improving Costa Rica squad will be a bridge too far. Costa Rica has impressed in this tournament, certainly performing better than I expect this veteran squad to heading in. Keep in mind, Costa Rica does find itself ranked above Canada in the FIFA world rankings so the case can certainly be made that the wrong side is being favored here (ever so slightly). Canada went all out in its final Group Stage match against the USA, but ultimately failed to find the back of the net despite applying waves of pressure throughout the match. The low posted total gives us a hint of what to expect here as well as I suspect the Canadians will once again have a tough time finding goals with what could only be considered their 'B' squad at this point. Costa Rica will be without goalkeeper Leonel Moreira for this match after he was given a red card against Jamaica. However, this is still a well-organized Costa Rican defense that should prove difficult to break down and I don't expect it to afford the Canadians a great deal of scoring chances. Costa Rica has been clinical in attack from the get-go in this tournament and while this will arguably be its toughest test to date, I look for Ariel Lassiter in particular to shine up front in this match. Take Costa Rica pk/draw no bet (10*). |
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07-24-21 | El Salvador +0.5 v. Qatar | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on El Salvador +1 goal over Qatar at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: I'm recommending grabbing the insurance goal with El Salvador in this one, allowing us to 'push' should it lose by exactly one goal. Most books are currently offering +0.75 goals as the standard line but +1 is widely available as an alternate line, albeit at a steeper price. Qatar got off to a shaky start in this tournament, blowing three leads on its way to a 3-3 draw against Panama. It's been all positive since then, however, but now it finds itself in uncharted territory as it heads to the quarter-final round as a decided favorite against El Salvador. Keep in mind, these two teams just squared off in a friendly tune-up match prior to this tournament with Qatar winning by a 1-0 score. El Salvador has actually played well in this tournament so far, with its lone blemish coming in a 1-0 loss to top-15 FIFA ranked Mexico in a relatively meaningless Group Stage finale. This is an El Salvador side that has been on the rise over the last couple of years. Getting to this stage of the tournament is a big deal as it had failed to do so in two of the last three Gold Cup events. I like the make up of this squad and believe it can give Qatar all it can handle on Saturday. Watch for Alex Roldan for El Salvador. He's been a real difference-maker for them in this tournament and started for the first time against Mexico last time out. It's been a smooth ride for Qatar over its last couple of matches but I expect it to face some resistance here. These are two evenly matched sides and I'm not sure that's being properly reflected in the line. Take El Salvador +1 goal (6*). |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | 98-105 | Loss | -107 | 37 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Milwaukee at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The wheels have inexplicably fallen off for the Suns as they've dropped three straight games to relinquish control of this series and now face the prospect of needing a road win to force a seventh and deciding game. While I'm not going to call for the outright victory, I do expect the Suns to give the Bucks all they can handle and at the very least take this one right down to the wire. Note that Phoenix checks in 11-2 ATS when playing on the road with triple revenge over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10 points in that situation. Long ATS losing streaks have been few and far between this season, noting that the Suns have gone 24-11 ATS off an ATS loss, outscoring the opposition by 7.6 points on average in that spot. Milwaukee has gone a miserable 5-14 ATS after winning three of its last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.7 points in that situation. Off three or more consecutive wins, the Bucks have gone 6-17 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by a narrow average margin of 1.0 point in that spot. We've seen quite a pendulum swing in this series with 'Suns in four' a common refrain after Phoenix posted consecutive lopsided wins to open the series before the Bucks reeled off three straight victories. Now everyone is quick to bury the Suns, assuming they're incapable of winning a game in Milwaukee. I simply feel a letdown could be in order for the Bucks here after they shot a blistering 51.3% and 55.2% in the last two games - noting that they've shot better than 50% from the field in consecutive games only twice previously this season, never able to do so in three straight contests. The door is still open a crack for a Suns squad that has proven more than capable of winning on the road this season, having gone 30-16 SU and 25-19-2 ATS. We'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Suns here. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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07-17-21 | Qatar -2.5 v. Grenada | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Qatar -2.5 goals over Grenada at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Off a wild 3-3 draw that saw all six goals scored in the second half against Panama, Qatar should find the going much easier against an overmatched Grenada squad on Saturday. Grenada fell by a 4-0 score against Honduras in its Gold Cup opener. It's unlikely the 160th-ranked international squad will find its footing against a cohesive Qatarian side here. Keep in mind, the bulk of the Qatar lineup plays together at the club level in its home country so it's no surprise that we saw it flow freely against Panama last time out. Defensively Qatar was extremely sound leading up to this tournament but clearly sprung some leaks against the Panamanians. This is an ideal bounce-back spot, however, as it faces an inexperienced Grenada squad that has had a miserable time trying to find the back of the goal against inferior opposition to what it will face here. While we're being asked to pay a steep tariff to back Qatar in this one I believe the lofty spread is warranted. Take Qatar -2.5 goals (9*). |
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07-16-21 | Jamaica -1.5 v. Guadeloupe | 2-1 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Jamaica -1.5 goals over Guadeloupe at 6:30 pm et on Friday. We won plays supporting both of these squads in their respective tournament openers but here, I'll give the nod to Jamaica as it should outclass Guadeloupe by a considerable margin over the course of 90 minutes. Jamaica jumped ahead early and while there were a few testy moments, ultimately prevailed by a 2-0 score against Suriname in its Gold Cup opener. The fact that it was challenged at all should serve as a bit of a wake-up call as it prepares to face another seemingly inferior squad talent-wise on Friday. Keep in mind, the Jamaicans can lock up advancement from the group stage with a victory here. We won with Guadeloupe +2.5 goals in its opener against Costa Rica but were fortunate to do so after it fell behind by two goals on two separate occasions and also received a red card fairly early in the second half. That red card will result in key defender/midfielder Steve Solvet missing this match. I have concerns when it comes to the Guadeloupe defense in this one after it looked rather disorganized against a slower Costa Rica squad than it will face on Friday. While goalkeeper Yohann Thuram was the hero in a penalty shootout win over Guatemala to reach this tournament, he has looked shaky at times and that was certainly the case in the match against Costa Rica. There's a considerable class difference that I'm not sure is being properly reflected in this line, partly due to Guadeloupe's respectable 3-1 defeat at the hands of Costa Rica. Jamaica wasn't quite as sharp as it would have liked against Suriname but I expect to see a more cohesive performance here. While I like some of the pieces Guadeloupe has up front, most notably Mirval, Phaeton and Ramothe, I suspect it will have a different time breaking down a Jamaican defense that has the potential to perform better than it did on Monday. Take Jamaica -1.5 goals (9*). |
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07-15-21 | United States -2.5 v. Martinique | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on USA -2.5 goals over Martinique at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. |
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07-15-21 | Canada v. Haiti +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Haiti +1.5 goals over Canada at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Haiti has been struck by Covid issues in this tournament, likely to miss seven players once again for Thursday's critical match against Canada. Nevertheless, the Haitians put forth a valiant effort against the USA in their Gold Cup opener and I expect them to be a 'tough out' against Canada as well. Canada cruised to a 4-1 victory against an overmatched Martinique squad in its tournament opener. A win here would obviously put it in the driver's seat for advancement from the group stage. Haiti on the other hand will be desperate to at least gain a point here before closing the opening round with a winnable match against Martinique. Despite getting shutout in its opener, Haiti did have its share of scoring opportunities against the Americans and will have something to build on here. Having also been shutout in two World Cup Qualifying matches against Canada prior to this tournament, I expect Haiti to make a concerted effort to put pressure on the Canadian defense here, which was never really tested by Martinique. While Canada's first victory was lopsided in nature, it's worth noting that it didn't extend the lead to three goals until the closing minutes of the match and that was with Martinique appearing punchless at both ends of the pitch. It will be up against a far more cagey side here, and I believe the familiarity between these two squads lends itself to a tightly contested affair. Take Haiti +1.5 goals (9*). |
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07-14-21 | Mexico -2.75 v. Guatemala | 3-0 | Win | 50 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mexico -2.75 goals over Guatemala at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. This is a nightmarish spot for Guatemala as it faces a furious Mexican side coming off a stunning 0-0 draw against Trinidad and Tobago in its Gold Cup opener - a match that was marred by questionable officiating and an injury to Mexican star Hirving Lozano. There's really no reason to knock Mexico for that 0-0 result. It dominated play for 90 minutes and probably deserved a better fate as their should have almost certainly been a penalty called on the play that injured Lozano, not to mention another goal that was called back due to a questionable offside call. Nevertheless, Mexico held 83% of the possession in that contest, firing 30 shots with seven hitting target. It racked up an incredible 31 crosses in the draw and held Trinidad and Tobago without a single shot on goal. In fact, Mexico hasn't allowed a single shot on target in its last two contests. Guatemala is only in this tournament due to Curacao being forced to withdraw due to positive Covid results. I don't think there's any question, El Salvador overlooked Guatemala in the opener. Still, the floodgates eventually opened with El Salvador finding a couple of late goals in a 2-0 victory. In the loss, Guatemala managed only 31% of the possession while allowing 21 shots with six on target and 24 crosses. Guatemala itself managed just one shot on target in the loss. Goal differential becomes a factor here after Mexico's scoreless draw to open the tournament. I don't expect to see the Mexicans take their foot off the gas should they build a lead in this contest, noting that they secured a 3-0 victory over the Guatemalans the last time they squared off in a friendly match last September. Take Mexico -2.75 goals (9*). |
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07-14-21 | Suns +4 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Milwaukee at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Bucks in Game 3 of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Suns as they look to grab a 3-1 stranglehold in this series on Wednesday night. Sunday's result could be chalked up as an anomaly as Phoenix had previously gone a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS when playing on two or more days' rest in these playoffs. It actually got off to a terrific start in that contest but ultimately couldn't match the Bucks desperation and fell behind by 20+ points entering the fourth quarter. The fact that Frank Kaminsky saw 13 minutes of playing time in that game tells you all you need to know about how that one played out. Here, we can expect the Suns to make the necessary defensive adjustments after Giannis Antetokounmpo went off for 41 points on 14-of-23 shooting (13-of-17 at the free throw line) in Game 3. It was just a solid all-around bounce-back game for the Bucks on Sunday with Jrue Holliday finally getting going again as well, knocking down 8-of-14 shots for 21 points. In the loss, Devin Booker shot a miserable 3-of-14 for 10 points for the Suns. We saw a similarly bad performance from him in Game 3 against the Clippers last round - a game Phoenix lost by 14 points. He responded by scoring 25 points in the next game, which the Suns won by an 84-80 score. In fact, the Suns are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in these playoffs after Booker is held to less than 20 points, winning those next games by an average margin of 14 points. Note that Phoenix checks in an incredible 9-1 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 12 points in that situation. The Suns have shot below 50% in three straight games to open this series. The last time they shot below that mark in three consecutive games they exploded with a 130-point outburst on 56.4% shooting on the road in Game 6 against the Clippers last round. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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07-12-21 | Guadeloupe +2.25 v. Costa Rica | 1-3 | Win | 50 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Guadeloupe +2.5 goals over Costa Rica at 9 pm et on Monday. Costa Rica made a splash at the 2014 World Cup but it's been mostly downhill since then as it has fallen from the 15th ranked team in the World (according to FIFA rankings) to 50th, where it currently resides. Yes, Costa Rica 'should' win this match on pedigree alone, however I don't think Guadeloupe will go down easily. Guadeloupe is playing with house money in this tournament after booking its ticket with a thrilling shootout victory over Guatemala last week. Putting the level of competition aside, Guadeloupe has now won each of its last six matches while Costa Rica checks in winless over that same stretch. I love the setup of the 'Gwada Boys' up front as they feature clinical attackers in Phaeton, Mirval and Ramothe that should be able to take advantage of an older, slower Costa Rica squad. I believe the door is open for Guadeloupe to find the back of the net at least once in this match, noting that Costa Rica did not include PSG goalkeeper Keylor Navas on its squad for this tournament. Should that happen, Costa Rica will be hard-pressed to find the four goals needed to cover this lofty goal-line spread. Take Guadeloupe +2.5 goals (9*). |
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07-09-21 | Lynx v. Aces -6.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
WNBA Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Minnesota at 10:30 pm et on Friday. The Aces have plenty of reason to get up for Friday night's showdown with the Lynx in Las Vegas as they come off a tough overtime loss against Phoenix, at home no less, and look to avenge a narrow one-point loss suffered in Minnesota on June 25th. We won with the Aces this past Sunday as they cruised to a 23-point rout of Atlanta. They couldn't follow that performance up with another stellar effort, however, as they shot just 43.9% from the field in an overtime loss to the Mercury on Wednesday night. Keep in mind, the Aces are averaging an incredible 96.7 points per game on 49.9% shooting here at home this season. They've been a much more potent offensive team at home compared to on the road while also holding the opposition to just 39.5% shooting. That's why it's somewhat perplexing that we're 'only' being asked to lay 6.5 points (at the time of writing) in this spot given the Aces closed as six-point favorites on the road against Minnesota in that most recent meeting on June 25th. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that the Lynx have gone on a tear, entering this game riding a five-game winning streak. Former Aces sharp-shooter Kayla McBride has been absolutely on fire over the last few games but what better team to slow her down than her former one. The Lynx aren't exactly brimming with scoring depth, relying heavily on veteran Sylvia Fowles and McBride. Bridget Carleton did chip in with 10 points off the bench in Wednesday's win over Dallas but she had previously topped out at just five points in her last six games. This will be Las Vegas' final home game before the extended Olympic break. Meanwhile, Minnesota will wrap up pre-Olympic play with a stop in Los Angeles on Sunday. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
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07-08-21 | Yankees v. Mariners +1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +0.5 runs first five innings over New York at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees have taken the first two games in this series but I look for the Mariners to have the early edge against them on Thursday afternoon. Jordan Montgomery gets the nod for New York. The Mariners have actually hit 14 points higher and averaged 0.3 runs per game more against left-handed starters this season, posting a 16-12 record along the way. Montgomery hasn't been good on the road, where he owns a 5.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. In six daytime starts he has posted a 5.97 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Note that he'll be pitching on just four days' rest on Thursday after laboring through 4 1/3 innings in his most recent start against the Mets. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Yankees bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.02 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only two blown on the road this season. Rookie Logan Gilbert will take the ball for Seattle. He's settled in a bit after a shaky start to his big league career. Gilbert has been at his absolute best in daytime starts, posting a 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in four outings with the Mariners winning all four of those games. Note that he'll have the advantage of facing the Yankees for the first time and will be pitching on at least five days rest for the 10th straight time to open his career. Playing the first five innings should help us avoid a Mariners bullpen that while effective here at home this season has been overworked lately and just logged another four innings last night. Take Seattle +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. It's not easy to back the Cubs right now as they enter this game riding an 11-game losing streak. We just lost with them last night +1.5 runs but I won't hesitate to come back with the same play on Wednesday night. The Phillies will give the nod to their ace, Zack Wheeler on Wednesday night. I don't have much negative to say about Wheeler, who is having a career year. With that being said, he will be starting on just four days' rest for the third straight turn in the rotation after working at least seven innings in each of his last two starts. Despite his stellar overall numbers, the Phillies are still just 7-10 when factoring in the -1.5 run-line in his 17 outings this season. Behind Wheeler is a Phillies bullpen that hasn't been good on the road this season, posting a collective 4.26 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with 10 converted saves to go along with 10 blown. Alec Mills will counter for Chicago. He has quietly pitched well in five starts this season, recording a 3.52 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. While he averages less than five innings per start that's not a major concern given the Cubs bullpen has been their strong suit, posting a collective 2.87 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 13 converted saves and only three blown at home this season. Mills will have the advantage of facing the Phillies for the first time in his career on Wednesday. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Milwaukee at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Suns have actually dropped the cash in each of their last two home games which is notable as they've lost three consecutive home games ATS only once this entire season, that coming way back in January when they just weren't playing good basketball, mired in a 3-7 stretch. Here, I look for the well-rested Suns to come up with a big Finals-opening performance, regardless whether the Bucks have the services of Giannis Antetokounmpo or not. Milwaukee has of course been a different team on the road compared to at home this season. You wouldn't know it based on its most recent dominant performance, closing out the Hawks in Atlanta in blowout fashion on Saturday. Note that the Bucks are still just 19-26 ATS on the road this season where they allow just shy of 114 points per game. The Suns on the other hand, have gone 28-16 ATS on their home floor, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.9 points. Note that the Bucks are just 5-13 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.2 points in that situation. They're also a miserable 8-23 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Phoenix owns an incredible 16-3 ATS record as a home favorite of six points or less this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 11.8 points in that spot. When coming off a double-digit win over a division opponent (as is the case here after their blowout victory over the Clippers last time out), the Suns have gone a perfect 7-0 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 14.2 points on average. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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07-06-21 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 15-10 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs are obviously reeling right now, having not won a game since June 24th. After getting blown out 13-3 in the opener of this series last night, I look for them to bounce back and at the very least take this one down to the wire on Tuesday. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phillies. Like the rest of his team, he has struggled on the road this season, posting a 5.32 ERA and 1.33 WHIP to go along with a 3-6 team record in nine starts. Note that he has lasted more than 5 1/3 innings just once in his last six trips to the hill. That's concerning as the Phillies bullpen has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 3.96 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 10 converted saves to go along with 10 blown. Despite last night's victory, the Phils are still 10 games under .500 on the road this season. Jake Arrieta will counter for Chicago. While it's not saying much, he has been better at home this season than on the road, posting a 4.08 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He'll likely be on a short leash here after struggling in his last several starts but that's not a bad thing as the Cubs bullpen has recorded a terrific 2.78 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Note that Arrieta will be pitching on five days' rest here. The last four times he's done so he has allowed just seven earned runs in 21 innings of work. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-05-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We've focused mostly on totals in this series so far but I'm willing to take a flyer on the Canadiens with an insurance goal on Monday night. This marks the first time this season we've seen the Canadiens lose three consecutive games by two goals or more. Saturday's game essentially got derailed by a couple of early goals allowed and they ended up playing catch-up all night from there. I do expect to see them get off to a better start as they face the prospect of their season ending on Monday night. Note that the Lightning are just 11-14 after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of just 0.1 goals in that situation. Tampa Bay also averages just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road after a game that totaled at least nine goals over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.2 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Canadiens check in 6-1 when coming off a home loss by three goals or more this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. They've also outscored opponents by 0.6 goals on average while allowing just 2.3 goals per contest when revenging two losses where their opponent scored at least three goals this season, with that situation coming up 13 times previously. While I certainly don't believe the Habs can come back and win this series, I don't think we'll see them go away quietly, noting that the Lightning have been involved in a number of tight, low-scoring affairs when attempting to close out a series on the road over the last two seasons (that situation has averaged a total of just 4.0 goals with Tampa Bay outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 0.6 goals, coming up nine times previously). Take Montreal +1.5 goals (9*). |
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07-04-21 | Dream v. Aces -15.5 | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Atlanta at 6 pm et on Sunday. This is a prime bounce-back spot for the Aces offensively after they were held to just 66 points on sub-38% shooting in the second of back-to-back games against the Sparks last time out. Note that Las Vegas averages a whopping 94.9 points per game on 49.5% shooting at home this season and should feast on a below-average Dream defense here. Atlanta comes in with some confidence following a narrow 91-88 loss on the road against the defending champion Seattle Storm last time out. The Dream have now won consecutive games ATS after going 2-5 ATS over their previous seven contests. I don't believe that's a sustainable trend and they're certainly in line for some regression after committing just 17 turnovers over their last two games (they turned the ball over 50 times in their previous five contests). The last time we saw the Dream shoot better than 47% from the field they followed up that performance with a 23-point loss at home against the New York Liberty. They're facing a tougher test here and I expect the Aces to ultimately win this one going away. Take Las Vegas (9*). |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Bucks in Game 5 of this series two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Hawks as the series shifts back to Atlanta on Saturday night. The Bucks are of course expected to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo once again on Saturday night. While there's a better chance that Trae Young is able to play for the Hawks, that's certainly no guarantee. Regardless whether he plays or not, I expect to see the Hawks bounce back with one of their best efforts of the series off of Thursday's lopsided loss. Note that the Bucks are just 4-13 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 4.0 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Hawks have gone 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.5 points in that situation. After allowing Milwaukee to shoot better than 50% from the field in Game 5 we can expect Atlanta to make the necessary defensive adjustments here, noting that it has been a considerably better defensive team at home compared to on the road this season, allowing 2.5 points per game less than its season-average while holding the opposition to under 45% shooting. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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07-03-21 | Denmark v. Czech Republic +0.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Euro Quarter-Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Czech Republic +0.5 goals over Denmark at 12 noon et on Saturday. It's time for teams to starting taking this Czech Republic side seriously after it dispatched the Netherlands in a convincing 2-0 victory last Sunday. The Czechs have done nothing but impress in this tournament and I don't expect to see them wilt under the pressure against the favored Danes on Saturday. Note that Denmark has rode a wave of positive momentum in this tournament ever since a stunning loss to Finland that was marred by Christian Eriksen's cardiac-arrest on the field in mid-match. I give the Danish side all the credit for their incredible run but now they've been sitting idle since breezing past Wales 4-0 last Saturday and I simply feel they're going to have their hands full with a cagey Czech squad. Patrik Schick has arguably been the breakout star of this tournament and he'll be called on once again to lead the Czechs to victory here. Note that they're expected to have key defender Jan Boril back from suspension for this match as well and they'll need all hands on deck given Denmark's ability to find the back of the net, scoring eight times in its last two contests. There's a certain confidence and swagger that the Czech's have displayed in this tournament and I believe it carries them to at least a level result after 90 minutes against Denmark on Saturday. Take Czech Republic +0.5 goals (10*). |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -2 | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Hawks in Game 4 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Bucks, even with Giannis likely sidelined on Thursday night. Milwaukee allowed Atlanta to shoot 50.6% from the field in a game that was never really close on Tuesday. The Bucks do have a terrific track record of bouncing back from performances like that, however, noting that the only other time they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the field in these playoffs, they responded with a gritty 86-83 road win over the Nets last round. In fact, they're 7-2 SU the last nine times they've come off a game in which they allowed the opposition to shoot better than 50%. The Hawks are hoping to have Trae Young back in the lineup on Thursday but regardless whether he plays, I still expect Milwaukee to rise to the occasion. Young's absence seemed to have a galvanizing effect on the Hawks in Game 4 but now we could very well see a letdown. Note that the Bucks have gone 39-24 ATS off an outright upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.7 points. Giannis' absence certainly doesn't help their cause here, but we've seen Khris Middleton step up previously in this series and I expect him to relish taking a starring role on Thursday as well. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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06-30-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Suns in Game 4 of this series last Saturday before switching gears to cash the first half 'over' in Game 5 on Monday. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Phoenix as it looks to wrap up this series and advance to its first NBA Finals since 1993. Paul George went into 'superstar mode' for the Clippers in Game 5, shooting a blistering 15-for-20 from the field and pouring in 41 points as Los Angeles staved off elimination with an 'upset' win in Phoenix. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I like to fade teams after they have a player 'go off' in their previous contest. Lost in George's monster performance was the fact that Devin Booker also got on track with a 31-point effort - the first time he eclipsed the 30-point mark since scoring 41 in Game 1 against the Clips. Note that the Suns check in an incredible 11-2 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 13.4 points. They've gone 23-9 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, outscoring opponents by 7.8 points on average. Phoenix has shot 45.2% or worse in three consecutive games - its longest such streak this season. It did shoot 45.7% or worse in three straight games back in round one against the Lakers. In their next game, the Suns shot better than 50% from the field and won by a 113-100 score right here at Staples Center. A similar scoreline would be well within the realm of possibility on Wednesday. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -164 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
MLB N.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers got past the Giants by a 3-2 score last night. I like San Francisco to get off to a positive start on Tuesday, however, as I fully expect it to at the very least stay level with the Dodgers through the first five innings. Kevin Gausman remains one of the most underrated and underappreciated starters in baseball this season. He checks in sporting an incredible 1.02 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 10 road starts. Here, he'll be pitching on five days' rest for the third consecutive start. While he will be facing the Dodgers for the second time this season, it's worth noting that he has allowed a grand total of just four earned runs in 26 innings of work when facing a team for a second (or third) time this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Giants bullpen that while solid, has managed to blow 11 saves on the road this season. Walker Buehler will counter for Los Angeles. There's really not a lot negative that can be said of the Dodgers ace (that title is of course debatable given how well Clayton Kershaw has pitched). However, he did labor through his most recent start, allowing three earned runs on five hits, including two home runs, while also issuing a pair of walks over six innings in his most recent start against the Cubs - a 4-0 Dodgers loss. Here, he'll be pitching on just four days' rest. The Giants will be facing Buehler for the third time this season. Take San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +7 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the Bucks on Tuesday coming off Khris Middleton's 38-point explosion in Game 3 (we won with the 'under' in that game). The Hawks are of course dealing with an injury to Trae Young, who may or may not be able to play due to a bruised foot suffered on Sunday. Whether he can go or not, I still like Atlanta in this spot as we're being given a generous helping of points with the home side, noting that the Hawks have already defeated the Bucks by seven as a six-point home underdog without Young in the lineup back in late April. Milwaukee has shot better than 51% in consecutive games - the first time it has accomplished that feat since May 13th and 15th. On that occasion, they followed up those two games with a 118-112 loss in Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite, shooting just 42.2% from the field in that loss. Note that the Bucks check in a miserable 4-12 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points in that situation. They're also 8-22 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games overall this season, as is the case here, only managing to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points in that spot. The Hawks are 15-5 ATS playing at home off a double-digit home loss over the last three seasons and 28-15 ATS when at home off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.3 points on average in the latter situation. Finally, in 10 games played at home after two or more consecutive ATS losses this season, the Hawks have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 6.3 points. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Ukraine v. Sweden | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
Euro Knockout Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Sweden pk (draw no bet) over Ukraine at 3 pm et on Tuesday. We won with Sweden in its most recent match, a 3-2 victory in a wild contest against Poland. Credit the Swedes hanging in there despite Robert Lewandowski's heroics and thanks to the victory they draw a favorable matchup against Ukraine here. Ukraine is certainly fortunate to be here after closing out the group stage with a 1-0 defeat against Austria. While it showed plenty of fight in a narrow 3-2 loss to the Netherlands in its opener and ultimately faced little resistance in a win over North Macedonia, the tournament has generally been a mixed bag for Andriy Shevchenko's squad. That's a stark contrast to the Swedes, who have been rock solid, showing excellent form defensively and just enough attacking prowess to make them a dangerous team moving forward in this tournament. Sweden is now undefeated in its last eight matches and I don't believe Ukraine will be the side to end that run. While I have a lot of respect for Ukraine, particularly for the duo of Zinchenko and Yarmolenko, I look for Sweden to ultimately prevail in what will likely be a low-scoring affair. Take Sweden (10*). |
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06-26-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Suns couldn't have played much worse in Game 3 of this series but perhaps that was to be expected after they grabbed a 2-0 series lead thanks to a thrilling last-second win in Game 2 (we won with the Clippers in Game 3). Here, I look for Phoenix to bounce back in all areas of the game as it looks to grab a 3-1 stranglehold on the series before heading back home. Much has been made of Devin Booker's awful 5-of-21 shooting night and whether it had anything to do with him wearing a protective mask after breaking his nose in Game 2. Regardless whether the mask played a role, I expect him to respond with a big performance on Saturday night. The best generally bounce back and Booker is certainly in that elite category a this stage of his career. For the Suns, Game 3 was also their first game of the series with Chris Paul back in the lineup. I did figure it would take some time for him to get re-acclimated with the offense and that certainly appeared to be the case. Look for a more cohesive effort from the Suns offense here on Saturday. Note that Phoenix has gone 8-1 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 12.9 points on average in that situation. The Suns have been an excellent bounce-back team all season, going 16-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.2 points when coming off a loss of any kind. While the Suns did hold Paul George relatively in check in Game 3 (he shot 9-of-26 from the field for 27 points), they'll need to play with a lot more intensity here after George and Ivica Zubac combined to haul in 31 rebounds. Again, it was no real surprise that we saw Phoenix take a breath in Game 3 after they had not only won the first two games in this series, but nine straight overall. The only other time they lost a game by double-digits in these playoffs, they responded with a 100-92 victory right here at Staples Center in Game 4 against the Lakers in round one. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Friday. Credit the Hawks for posting a more convincing Game 1 victory than the final score indicated two nights ago. Now it's the Bucks turn to answer back and that they will on Friday night. The fact that Milwaukee came out flat in Game 1 wasn't all that surprising. After all, it was coming off a grueling seven-game battle against the Nets - who were favored to win the NBA title. Getting up for the upstart Hawks was going to be a challenge and it played out accordingly on Wednesday night. Here, I'm confident we'll see a much sharper performance from the Bucks at both ends of the floor. Note that they check in 67-49 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 11.9 points. They're 31-11 SU at home this season, where they outscore the opposition by eight points per game on average. Meanwhile, the Hawks are just 20-36 ATS after posting consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons. They're also just 7-18 ATS as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points over the last two seasons, outscored by a wide average margin of 15 points in that spot. Take Milwaukee (9*). |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1.5 | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. Everyone is quick to count out the Kawhi-less Clippers after falling in an 0-2 hole in this series and with Chris Paul set to return for the Suns. I do feel we'll see what will potentially be the Clips best performance of the series on Thursday night, however, as they return home in desperate need of a victory to make this a series. Keep in mind, even with Kawhi Leonard in and out of the lineup all season, one thing has remained fairly consistent and that has been Los Angeles ability to win games at home having gone 30-13, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.8 points here at Staples Center. The Clips have also been a long-term winning bet when coming off a loss, going 37-21 ATS in their last 58 opportunities, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.2 points. We've seen Los Angeles lose consecutive games on two previous occasions in these playoffs. Following those mini-skids, the Clippers answered back with perhaps their two best games of the playoffs to date, defeating the Mavs 118-108 on 57.9% shooting in Game 3 of the opening round and throttling the Jazz 132-106 on 56.2% shooting in Game 3 last round. The difference here is they won't have Kawhi Leonard to lean on. Nonetheless, I believe they have a win in them in this series, and it comes on Thursday. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-23-21 | Poland v. Sweden | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sweden +0.5 goals (-185) over Poland at 12 noon et on Wednesday. NOTE: I'm recommending a play on Sweden using the alternate goal-line of +0.5 on Wednesday. Alternatively, if that line isn't offered at your book of choice, playing the Swedes pk (draw no bet) is an option as well. Poland needs a victory to ensure advancement to the knockout stage of this tournament but I suspect Sweden will be a difficult side to break down on Wednesday. The Swedes have impressed in their stubbornness through their first two matches, having yet to allow a goal in earning a 0-0 draw against Spain and a 1-0 victory over Slovakia. While it's quite likely they'll be moving on regardless of the outcome here today, there's a possibility that they could miss out should they lose and Spain and Slovakia play to a draw. I certainly wouldn't expect Sweden to lay down in this one as it has a clear opportunity to seal top spot in the group. Poland has looked rather uneven at both ends of the pitch in its first two matches. The 1-1 draw against Spain last time out was certainly a favorable result and perhaps a somewhat fortunate one with Spain missing a penalty late. Robert Lewandowski is a living legend to be sure and he's been responsible for both Polish markers in this tournament. If any opponent is going to contain the Bayern Munich striker, it's Sweden, which has shown a real penchant for staunch defense here at Euro 2020. Sweden hasn't lost a match since falling 4-2 to mighty France back in November. Even that defeat came with somewhat of an asterisk as the Swedes didn't have a fully-formed lineup at that point, with one of their stars in this tournament so far, Alexander Isak only making an appearance in the latter stages of the match. Speaking of lineups, the Swedes have a wealth of options at their disposal, with players capable of coming off the bench and making an immediate impact should things not go their way in the first half of this contest. Regardless, I like the Swedes to at the very least keep this one on level terms as they cruise to the knockout stage of the tournament. Take Sweden +0.5 goals (10*). |
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06-22-21 | Wings +1.5 v. Sun | 70-80 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Connecticut at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Wings are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the WNBA right now while Connecticut is just trying to keep its footing without its best player, Jonquel Jones. Regression was always going to be coming for Connecticut whether Jones got hurt or not. The Sun got off to a tremendous start this season but have now lost three games in a row and five of their last seven overall. Without a true go-to scorer they've struggled to keep up with the league's better teams. Tonight's game should be no different. We won with Dallas in its most recent game - a 95-77 rout of the Lynx on Saturday. The Wings are getting production from all over the floor right now, including off the bench. With Arike Ogunbowale in a bit of a shooting slump, others have picked up the slack, most notably Marina Mabrey, who poured in 28 points on 9-of-13 shooting off the bench on Saturday. While she's unlikely to turn in that type of performance again tonight, I do expect a bounce-back of sorts from the duo of Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally, with the latter scoring just seven points in 15 minutes on Saturday. The Sun leaned heavily on their defensive play early in the season but have struggled in that regard lately. On the season, they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 46% from the field here at home. With Dallas playing at a fast pace that spells trouble for the Sun on Tuesday. By contrast, the Wings have held opponents to 42% shooting on the road and have held four of their last six opponents to 41.4% shooting or worse. Take Dallas (10*). |
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | 103-96 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Atlanta at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 76ers (moneyline) in Game 6 of this series and I won't hesitate to come right back with them again as they host Game 7 against the Hawks on Sunday night. Atlanta had its chance to close out this series on its home floor and came up just short on Friday night. Now I suspect it is going to have a tough time getting back up and keeping this game competitive on Sunday night. The 76ers have been a terrific home team all season, going 33-9 SU and 25-16 ATS here in Philadelphia, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.1 points. While the Hawks check in 6-18 ATS as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 12.5 points over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 15.7 points. On the flip side, the 76ers are 30-20 ATS as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.5 points. Better still, Philadelphia has gone 22-8 ATS when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.9 points. This series should probably already be over for all intents and purposes given the way the 76ers coughed up Game 5 on their home floor. Look for them to turn in one of their best performances of the series as they close out the Hawks in convincing fashion on Sunday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets -1 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We got what we wanted in Game 6 of this series as the Bucks cruised to an easy, double-digit victory to force a seventh and deciding game back in Brooklyn on Saturday night. Here, we'll back the Nets at a short number as they look to hold serve for a fourth time at home and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals in the process. The Bucks have offered the Nets their best punches in the last two games of this series, shooting better than 49% from the field in a six-point loss here in Brooklyn in Game 5 before registering a 16-point home win in Game 6. Now it's the Nets turn to answer back with a peak performance here at home, even without Kyrie Irving. Brooklyn has of course been a tremendous home team this season, going 34-8 while outscoring the opposition by just shy of eight points per game. The Nets have gone a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS here at home in these playoffs. Game 6 was always going to be an uphill battle for the Nets off an emotional, Kevin Durant-fueled Game 5 victory here at home. Not surprisingly, the Bucks came out with more energy and had little trouble forcing a seventh game. Now the situation sets up well for the Nets, noting that Milwaukee has gone 5-14 ATS when playing on the road after winning two of its last three games this season. We're dealing with a short pointspread here for a reason as the Nets certainly aren't the same team without their 'Big Three' intact. With that being said, I do think they're right where they want to be, at home with a chance to close out this series, and I look for them to take full advantage. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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06-19-21 | A's +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -165 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
American League Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the A's on the run-line (free play) last night even though we didn't even need the insurance run in a 5-3 victory. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they continue their series with the Yankees in the Bronx. Chris Bassitt gets the start for Oakland. He was quietly an A.L. Cy Young contender last season and after a slow start this year, he has been excellent for the A's once again. Bassitt checks in sporting a 3.98 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in seven road starts this season with the A's winning all seven of those games. While he was shaky in his most recent road start in Seattle back on June 1st, it's worth noting that he was pitching on four days' rest for the second straight start in that one. Here, he pitches on five days' rest for a second consecutive outing. Bassitt will also have the advantage of the Yankees having never faced him. Behind Bassitt is a solid A's bullpen that entered last night's game having worked just 20 2/3 innings over their last seven contests, with an off day in the mix as well. They've posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season. Domingo German will counter for New York. He's generally been awful over his last four starts. In six daytime starts this season he owns an ugly 5.34 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He averages just 5 1/3 innings per start here at home and while that's generally not a problem as the Yankees bullpen is terrific, we're talking about a group that has been somewhat overworked lately and has struggled a bit as a result. Entering last night's game, the Yankees relief corps had worked 29 1/3 innings over their last seven contests, recording a collective 3.99 ERA and 1.43 WHIP along the way. Finally, I'll point out that the A's have faced German three times since the 2018 season, knocking him around for 13 earned runs in just 15 1/3 innings. With the A's roster mostly intact from recent years, look for them to find continued success here today. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Germany v. Portugal +0.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portugal +0.5 goals over Germany at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Portugal's Euro 2020 debut against Hungary on Tuesday - a rather miraculous win thanks to three late goals from A Selecao. Here, I expect to see another tightly-contested affair, but will grab the half-goal of insurance with Portugal knowing it would be pleased to gain another point here with a difficult match against France still ahead. Germany isn't the same dominant team we've seen at recent European Championships. While the talent is still there, the pieces just haven't fit together quite as well in recent years and here we find it with just three victories in its last seven matches, with those wins coming against the likes of Iceland, Romania and Latvia. While a narrow 1-0 defeat at the hands of mighty France might look good on paper, the Germans rarely looked all that threatening in that match. Portugal last lost just one match going all the way back to November 2019 - a string of 16 contests. That lone defeat came by a 1-0 scoreline against aforementioned France. Die Mannschaft has gotten the better of Portugal over the years but there haven't been any recent meetings between the two sides. As the odds for this match indicate, there's little to choose between these two sides but I see Portugal having the killer instinct that Germany lacks at the moment and at the very least keeping this one level on Saturday. Take Portugal +0.5 goals (10*). |
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06-17-21 | Lynx v. Wings -5 | 85-73 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Minnesota at 8 pm et on Thursday. I wasn't all that high on Dallas early in the season as they were dealing with some key absences and putting too much on the shoulders of Arike Ogunbowale. However, the Wings have gotten back to virtually full strength and the difference in their play has been staggering as they've gone 4-2 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS over their last six contests. Meanwhile, Minnesota still can't seem to get out of its own way. The Lynx did post three straight wins earlier this month but have since dropped two of their last three contests to fall to 4-6 on the campaign. They're the ones missing a number of key contributors now. While Napheesa Collier continues to shine, she's not getting a great deal of help. I've been waiting all season for former Aces sharp-shooter Kayla McBride to get acclimated with the offense but it just hasn't happened. Now their depth will be seriously challenged with only three players capable of giving them significant minutes off the bench with Natalie Achonwa sidelined. The Wings shot just 32.5% from the field in their last game yet still managed to cover the spread in a competitive seven-point loss in Las Vegas. That came at the end of a tough five-game road trip, on the heels of three straight wins. Here, I look for the Wings to get back on track offensively as they reach the win column once again in convincing fashion. Take Dallas (10*). |
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06-16-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Playoff Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Habs for at least staying in the game in the opener of this series on Monday night. They could have easily folded the tent after falling behind 2-0 early in the second period but answered back with a goal to cut the lead in half. They could have also let the game get out of hand after a quick response from Vegas to make it 3-1 but instead they battled in the third period, ultimately outshooting the Knights 12-9 in the final frame and falling by a 4-1 score. The Canadiens are very much a team with 'nothing to lose' here in the Stanley Cup semi-final round. Few expected them to get out of the first round let alone make it out of the North Division. Facing the Knights is a tall task and I certainly don't expect them to win this series. However, I do think they're well-positioned to give Vegas a run in Game 2 on Wednesday night. Note that Montreal is 11-5 after scoring a goal or less in its last game this season, averaging 3.1 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that spot. We've also seen the Habs allow just 2.4 goals per game and outscore opponents by an average margin of 0.4 goals when revenging a loss by four goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation coming up 21 times previously. The Knights are just 4-10 when coming off consecutive home wins by two goals or more in franchise history, allowing 3.5 goals per game and outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that spot. Vegas is a terrific team and certainly has a clear path to a Stanley Cup title at this point. However, I don't think it will go completely untested in this series. Look for the Habs to keep things close at the very least in Game 2 on Wednesday night. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-14-21 | Czech Republic v. Scotland | 2-0 | Win | 106 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Czech Republic +0.5 goals (-190) over Scotland at 9 am et on Monday. NOTE: I'll play the alternate goal line at a steeper price here giving us insurance should this match end in a draw. Alternatively, your book may offer the Czechs to win/draw at the same price. I'm higher on the Czech's than most entering this tournament and while this obviously a difficult match against Scotland in Glasgow, I expect to see them keep proceedings level at the very least and earn a much-needed point as they battle it out in a tricky group. With England and Croatia rounding out the group, advancement could be difficult for these two squads so avoiding a goose-egg in the opening match is obviously critical. The Czechs bring rather inconsistent form to the table after suffering a 4-0 defeat at the hands of mighty Italy before rallying their spirits for a 3-1 win over Albania in two warm-up friendly matches. Keep in mind, they didn't start their 'A' squad against the Italians and fell behind quickly 2-0 as a result. Once the likes of Patrik Schick and Tomas Soucek entered the match after halftime the game was already well in hand for Italy. Scotland earned a recent 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, which was certainly impressive on paper. However, the Dutch were missing some key parts at the back-end, most notably goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen, whose absence was certainly felt in yesterday's narrow 3-2 victory over Ukraine. In World Cup Qualifying back in March, the Scots' needed a late goal to pull even with Austria in a 2-2 draw before settle for another disappointing draw, 1-1 against Israel, and then proceeding to lay waste to Faroe Islands 4-0. Scotland actually reached this tournament - a rare Euro appearance at that - on the shoulders of qualifying wins over the likes of Kazakhstan, Cyprus and San Marino before clinching their ticket with victories on penalties against Israel and Serbia. To say that it is fortunate to be here would be an understatement. I think the fact that Scotland got past Czech Republic in both Nations League matches last fall looms large when it comes to the prices being set for this match. While Scotland does have home field advantage, I believe the case could be made for the Czechs to be favored. Instead we're able to grab them plus a half-goal at a reasonable price. Take Czech Republic +0.5 goals (9*). |
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06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Phoenix at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. This line is moving in the wrong direction in my opinion. While the Nuggets are highly unlikely to give the Suns a serious run int his series I do think that they can salvage at least one game. Note that Denver is 10-2 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 10.3 points. In fact, coming off a home loss of any kind this season, the Nuggets have outscored opponents by 12.8 points on average the 12 times that situation has come up. They're also an impressive 17-5 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 14.4 points in that situation. I have a lot of respect for Phoenix. There's a reason I didn't fade them in Game 3 (instead playing the 'under'). However, the fourth win is always the toughest in a series and I expect them to get extended at least one more game against a Nuggets squad that should play with some pride on Sunday night. Take Denver (10*). |
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06-12-21 | Sparks v. Lynx -7.5 | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Los Angeles at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Lynx on Saturday night as they look to bounce back from a close loss in Washington last time out. Minnesota has still won three of its last four games, not surprisingly coinciding with the team getting healthier. Napheesa Collier's return in particular has boosted the team's prospects in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is missing both Ogwumike's and not surprisingly suffered a lopsided defeat in Washington two nights ago (we won with the Mystics in that game) as they continue to struggle to find consistent offensive production. Here, they'll face a Sky squad that is locked in defensively right now, having held four straight opponents to 43.7% or worse shooting. Los Angeles has shot 37.5% or worse from the field in three of its last four contests. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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06-12-21 | Padres v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets got the better of the Padres in last night's pitcher's duel (we won with the 'under') and I expect a similar story to unfold on Saturday. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for San Diego. He's off to an incredible start this season and of course already has a no-hitter to his credit. However, he has struggled in four daytime starts, posting a 4.50 ERA and he averages just north of five innings per start on the road. Musgrove has already faced the Mets once this season and it was one of his worst starts of the season as he allowed three earned runs on eight hits over just five innings (he did strike out 10 along the way). While the Padres bullpen working behind him has posted excellent overall numbers this season, I still feel it's an overworked group, having already pitched 271 innings (prior to last night's game). We've seen some regression from the Padres relief corps in recent weeks and could certainly see more of that should they get extended today. Marcus Stroman will counter for the Mets. He didn't allow a single earned run over 6 2/3 innings when he faced San Diego on June 6th. Stroman checks in sporting an impressive 2.02 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in four home starts this season. He's lasted at least six innings in six straight starts and behind him is one of the best bullpens in baseball, particularly here at home where the Mets relief corps has posted a collective 1.69 ERA and 1.11 WHIP (entering last night's action). We'll grab the insurance run here but hopefully won't need it. Take New York +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-11-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Run-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Texas at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Dodgers are showing signs of getting rolling again, coming off a three-game sweep of the Pirates in Pittsburgh. I look for them to win in convincing fashion with Clayton Kershaw on the hill against Mike Foltynewicz on Friday night. Foltynewicz is a somewhat familiar face to the Dodgers from his days in the National League. In six career starts against them, he's posted a 6.11 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Of course, that's pretty much par for the course for Folty as so far this season he owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in four road starts, with the Rangers winning just one of those games. While he has worked seven innings in two of his last three starts, he's still averaging just 5.5 innings per start this season which is concerning as the Rangers bullpen has been awful on the road, posting a collective 5.58 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Clayton Kershaw is coming off back-to-back rough outings but should get back on track here. He has posted a 3.55 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in six home starts, with the Dodgers winning four of those games. Note that he's absolutely owned the opposition in three previous interleague starts, recording a sparkling 0.92 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings of work. While the Rangers have hit better against left-handers this season, better is a relative term in this case as they're still averaging just 4.1 runs per game and hitting .241 against southpaws. With Kershaw averaging around 6 1/3 innings per start here at home, the Dodgers bullpen may not have to factor in too much, but it's worth noting that they've recorded a collective 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home this season. Over their last seven games (entering yesterday's action) they've posted a 2.60 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with no blown saves. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-11-21 | Storm v. Dream +9.5 | 86-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Seattle at 8 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Dream in this same matchup two nights ago as they fell flat in a 24-point rout at the hands of the Storm. Keep in mind, that game was actually close into the second half before Atlanta went on an extended cold streak and got caught chasing the game. I'll back the Dream again here, as I expect them to make the necessary adjustments and do a better job of defending the Storm after they shot a blistering 55% on Wednesday. Seattle got above-average performances all over the floor in that game. In fact, the trio of Mercedes Russell, Sue Bird and Stephanie Talbot combined to shoot 13-of-17 from the field. Meanwhile, outside of Tiffany Hayes, the Dream just couldn't knock down shots consistently. Atlanta is certainly capable of much better and needs a victory tonight to have a shot at a winning homestand with Washington rolling into town on Sunday. Note that the Storm have posted three previous wins by more than 10 points this season. In their next game they've gone 2-1 with their two victories both coming by exactly three points. Look for the Dream to take the Storm down to the wire at the very least on Friday night. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Sparks v. Mystics -4 | 71-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Los Angeles at 7 pm et on Thursday. The Mystics have managed to turn their season around, relatively speaking, by winning two of their last four games with the two losses over that stretch coming against two championship-caliber teams in Connecticut and Las Vegas. Here, I look for the Mystics to take advantage a depleted Sparks squad traveling across a couple of time zones to play this Thursday night contest in Washington. Note that while Los Angeles is coming off consecutive victories, its most recent came on a day where the game was essentially handed to it by a disjointed Chicago squad. The Sky had awful performances all over the court on that day while the Sparks saw Amanda Zahui B, Erica Wheeler and Te'a Cooper play above expectations in a come-from-behind five-point win. Washington has seen the duo of Ariel Atkins and Myisha Hines-Allen really emerge as consistent scoring threats in the last couple of games and I look for it to ride their strong performances to another victory on Thursday. Take Washington (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Suns | 98-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Phoenix at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. Despite the relatively lopsided result in the opener of this series I still think this has the makings of a long series between two teams that have the ability to win away from home. Case in point, the Nuggets took two of three games in Portland in the opening round and despite their Game 1 loss, check in 24-16 away from home this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.6 points. Here, we find the Nuggets an incredible 12-2 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 4.9 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Suns are just 10-22 ATS when playing at home after scoring 120 points or more in a game over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.0 points in that situation. There's really no intimidation factor at play here as the Nuggets have taken five of the last six meetings in this series here in Phoenix. The Suns have looked better when playing on more than one day of rest during these playoffs, particularly with Chris Paul dealing with a nagging shoulder injury. They're just 2-2 ATS when playing on one day of rest but a perfect 3-0 ATS when coming off two or more off days. Both of their SU losses in these playoffs came on one day of rest. Take Denver (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Storm v. Dream +10 | Top | 95-71 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
WNBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Seattle at 7 pm et on Wednesday. In my opinion, this is a bit of a lazy WNBA line set by the oddsmakers. Yes, the Storm are the defending champs and yes, Atlanta is coming off a 20-point drubbing at the hands of a middling Minnnesota squad - its second straight loss at the hands of the Lynx. However, I fully expect to see the Dream get up for this game. Despite the consecutive losses in Minnesota, Atlanta has been playing better lately, going 5-1 ATS over its last six contests. While losing guard Chennedy Carter to injury hurt, we've seen highly-touted draft pick Aari McDonald finally start to acclimate herself to the offense in recent games, most recently scoring a season-high 15 points in consecutive games against the Lynx. Meanwhile, Tiffany Hayes has scored 20+ points in four of her last five games and Cheyenne Parker, the Dream's big offseason acquisition, is rounding back into form after contributing 19 minutes and 12 points last time out. Seattle is coming off a hard-fought 1-1 split in a two-game set against the Dallas Wings at home and checks in just 1-5 ATS over its last five contests. I'll grab the generous helping of points with a Dream squad that despite its early-season struggles, hasn't lost three games in a row yet this season. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Israel v. Portugal -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portugal -1.5 goals over Israel at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. We won with Portugal +0.5 in its last match against Spain and will go back to the well with A Selecao here as it draws a more favorable match against Israel ahead of its Euro opener against Hungary next Tuesday. We certainly didn't see Portugal's 'A' squad against La Roja last week. I suspect we'll see something closer to it here on Wednesday, however, even if Cristiano Ronaldo is likely to only make a cameo appearance (if he plays at all). Note that while Israel is coming off consecutive victories, scoring a whopping seven goals in the process, those came against the likes of Moldova and Montenegro. The fact that it conceded a goal in each of those contests was somewhat discouraging. Note that the last two times Israel stepped up in class it failed to find the back of the net against Denmark and the Czech Republic. I suspect it will have a difficult time breaking down a tremendous Portugal defense here as well. A Selecao certainly wants to head into the Euros on a positive note and consecutive clean sheets would do exactly that. On the flip side, regardless whether Ronaldo is on the pitch, I expect Portugal to go on the attack in this match - unlike what we saw against Spain when it didn't record a shot on target until the closing minutes. Prior to that 0-0 draw, Portugal had tallied nine goals in its last four matches. It should only be a matter of time before it puts its stamp on this one as well. Take Portugal -1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. This line is moving in the wrong direction as far as I'm concerned. The 76ers clearly took the Hawks lightly in the opener of this series on Sunday, falling behind big early as the Hawks simply couldn't miss in the first half. They did rally to make a game of it, however, showing a bit of Atlanta's inexperience in the process. Here, I look for the Sixers to bounce back with a convincing win. Note that Philadelphia has gone 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite of six points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.9 points. Better still, the Sixers are 21-8 ATS at home after losing two of their last three games, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points on average in that situation over the last three seasons. Atlanta is still a losing team on the road this season at 19-21 and checks in 20-34 ATS after winning consecutive games ATS over the last three seasons, outscored by 5.8 points on average in that spot. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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06-07-21 | Cyprus v. Ukraine -1 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ukraine -1 goal over Cyprus at 12 noon et on Monday. We won with Ukraine in last week's 1-0 victory over Northern Ireland and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, this time laying a goal to get a more reasonable price. While the final scoreline was 1-0, the damage could have been much worse as Ukraine missed a number of prime opportunities to extend its lead, particularly in the first half of that most recent match. All told, Ukraine made 18 shot attempts with four hitting the target. While it did get put back on its heels for a stretch in the second half, I'm not convinced Cyprus has the same ability to do so here. Note that Cyprus has managed to score just a single goal in its last five matches and will have to be careful here after losing defender Andreas Karo to injury in its match against Hungary last week. While Cyprus has proven to be a tough defensive squad, I expect Ukraine's duo of Yaremchuk and Zinchenko (he didn't see the field in its last match after playing in the Champions League Final days earlier) to find some success here, with Yaremchuk building off a strong showing against Northern Ireland last week. While the result here is of little consequence given that it is simply an international friendly, a positive showing should be important to Ukraine ahead of a very difficult Euro opener against the Netherlands coming up in a week. With Austria also lurking in its group, it will need to hit the ground running heading into the tournament and I'm confident we'll see Andriy Shevchenko field his 'A' squad for this tune-up. Take Ukraine -1 goal (10*). |
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06-06-21 | Jets +1.5 v. Canadiens | 1-5 | Loss | -199 | 34 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg +1.5 goals over Montreal at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. The Jets had every opportunity to get back in this series on Friday night but couldn't solve Carey Price and now head to Montreal down two games ahead of Sunday's Game 3 clash. I do expect to see Winnipeg's best effort on Sunday as it knows that it can ill afford to dig itself an 0-3 hole, much like Carolina against Tampa earlier this week. The Canadiens have now reeled off five consecutive victories since going down 3-1 against the Leafs in round one but as well as they're playing, I believe that streak is on borrowed time. I still feel this has the makings of a long series, while the Canadiens owned the opener, Winnipeg just as easily could have prevailed on Friday night. Extended success against the Jets hasn't been commonplace for the Habs and Winnipeg knows it can steal a game in Montreal. As I've noted time and time again, home ice just doesn't mean quite as much in the NHL Playoffs compared to other sports. While we're being asked to pay a tariff to back the Jets with an insurance goal on Sunday, I believe the price could be even higher. Take Winnipeg +1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-06-21 | Greece +0.5 v. Norway | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Greece +0.5 goals over Norway at 12 noon et on Sunday. The presence of Erling Haaland will have many rushing to back the Norwegians in this friendly match on Sunday. However, after Norway was only able to break down the likes of Luxembourg for one goal last time out I believe it will be hard-pressed to come away victorious against a Greece side that actually brings solid form to the table. Greece has in fact gone undefeated in its last nine matches including a 1-1 draw against top-ranked Belgium earlier this week. While the Belgians were missing a number of key players in that match, it was still another encouraging result for this gritty Greece side. We're not asking for it to work any miracles here, but I do expect Greece to find a little more success disseminating a vulnerable Norwegian defense and ultimately keep this match level at the very least. Take Greece +0.5 goals (10*). |
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06-05-21 | Bucks +4 v. Nets | 107-115 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. Travelling this weekend so my apologies for the somewhat brief analysis for this play. Let’s take a shot with the Bucks here as we go against the narrative that the Nets are invincible after taking care of the Celtics with ease in the opening round. This does promise to be a long, hard-fought series after the Bucks ‘slayed the dragon’ so to speak by taking down last year’s playoff nemesis, the Miami Heat, in an opening round sweep. The Nets have gone with a smaller lineup since dealing rim protector Jarrett Allen and I do think that leaves them vulnerable against a Bucks squad that crashes the boards relentlessly. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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06-05-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Phillies | 2-5 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Nats' are a small underdog (at the time of writing) on Saturday, allowing us to grab the insurance run in a spot where I believe they have an edge. Joe Ross will get the start for Washington. While he's struggled for the most part this season, day games haven't been an issue as he's posted a 1.75 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five afternoon outings. Ross averages less than five innings per start but behind him is a Nationals bullpen that has also fared very well in day games, recording a collective 2.49 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with four converted saves compared to just one blown. Spencer Howard will counter for Philadelphia. He has made just two starts this season and has yet to work beyond the fourth inning. Note that the Nationals will be getting their second look at Howard since last August. We're likely to see plenty of the Phillies 'pen on this day, and that relief corps has struggled here at home this season, posting a 5.14 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Take Washington +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-05-21 | Sky +5 v. Sparks | Top | 63-68 | Push | 0 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Los Angeles at 3 pm et on Saturday. We just missed with the Sky in their last game as they blew a late five-point fourth quarter lead before dropping a three-point decision in overtime - their second straight heartbreaking loss at the hands of the Phoenix Mercury. Here, they'll continue their road trip against a Sparks squad that is off a blowout win against the lowly Fever, but play without a number of key players. While Los Angeles gets bit by the injury bug, Chicago gets healthier. The Sky welcomed back Allie Quigley and Stefanie Dolson last game and while both played limited minutes, they both contributed and I expect both to make even more of an impact on Saturday. Chicago isn't off to the start it had hoped for this season but there's obviously plenty of time to turn things around. This is a key spot and I look for the Sky to come up big. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-04-21 | Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The road team has won all five games in this series so far but perhaps that shouldn't come as a big surprise as both teams have proven to be 'road warriors' this season with the Clippers going 23-15 and the Mavs posting a 24-15 record away from home. I look for that trend to continue on Friday as this will be the only first round series that goes the full seven games. Los Angeles actually falls into an excellent situation here having gone 14-2 ATS, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 18.5 points (!), after losing five or six of its last seven games ATS over the last two seasons (as is the case here). The Clips are 34-20 ATS after a loss of any kind over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.5 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Mavs check in a miserable 6-17 ATS when returning home off a road win over the last two seasons, outscored by a considerable average margin of 6.5 points. The fourth win in a series is generally the toughest one to get (don't tell that to the Suns) and I expect the Mavs to find that out on Friday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-04-21 | Portugal +0.25 v. Spain | 0-0 | Win | 50 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portugal +0.5 goals over Spain at 1:30 pm et on Friday. |
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06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers -2 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Everyone is down on the Lakers right now. Perhaps rightfully so after an ugly 30-point loss in Game 5 of this series two nights ago. Concerning for the Suns though is the fact that Chris Paul was forced to leave Tuesday's game after aggravating his shoulder injury. Now he'll be forced to play on just one day of rest once again - just as we saw between Games 2 and 3 when the Lakers rolled to a 14-point victory here at home. It was only after two off days that CP3 was able to turn in a stellar performance in last Sunday's key Game 4 victory here in Los Angeles. While Anthony Davis' status remains in question for Los Angeles I would expect him to play in this elimination game, although even if he can't go, I still like the Lakers at a short number here. Even with Lebron and AD in and out of the lineup this season, Los Angeles has still managed to go 23-16 here at home, outscoring the opposition by 3.5 points on average. Better still, the Lakers have outscored opponents by an average of 6.7 points as a favorite this season. Considering the Lakers closed as -6.5-point favorites in both Games 3 and 4 here at home, I believe we're dealing with an overreaction to the last two results in this series. AD's status certainly plays a factor as well but perhaps a little more than it should as the defending champs face elimination on Thursday. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Sky +2 v. Mercury | 74-77 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Sky have a lot of room for improvement in this game after suffering a heart-breaking 84-83 loss on a buzzer-beating three from Kia Nurse two nights ago. Look for them to earn some quick revenge here as they head to Phoenix looking to snap their five-game skid. Chicago shot a miserable 38% from the field in that loss to the Mercury while Phoenix shot a blistering 52.5%. Yet it still took a 14-3 run to end the game for the Mercury to prevail. Here, Chicago opened as a short road favorite but has since shifted to an underdog role. That's just fine with us. The Sky are expected to have both Allie Quigley and Stefanie Dolson back for this game. How much they can contribute minutes-wise remains to be seen but the fact that they have them back in the lineup at least provides an emotional boost. Remember, this is a team that started the season with consecutive victories. Phoenix has been dealing with a key absence of its own with Diana Taurasi sidelined with a chest injury. Note that the Mercury check in 0-8 ATS the last eight times they've played at home after allowing 80 points or more in their last game, as is the case here. Despite Tuesday's loss, Chicago has still taken five of the last seven meetings in this series. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-02-21 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Avalanche | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas +1.5 goals over Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting Game 2 of this series to play out much differently than Game 1. The Avs of course skated to a stunning 7-1 blowout victory in the series opener, overwhelming a Knights squad that was just one day removed from finishing off its hard-fought seven-game opening round series with the Wild. Now Vegas is set up well, having gone a perfect 12-0 when revenging a road loss against an opponent by three goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals in that situation. Colorado's Game 1 victory marked its second straight win over Vegas. It's worth noting that neither team has managed to win three in a row in nine meetings in this series this season. Also note that the Knights are 7-2 against the Avs this season when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line that we're dealing with tonight. Take Vegas +1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-02-21 | Mavs +7 v. Clippers | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The road team has won all four games in this series so far and while I'm not sure if that trend will continue on Wednesday, I do think this line will prove too high. I like the fact that there have been two days off between games here as that will have served to give Mavs injured star Luke Doncic a little extra time to get treatment on his neck and heal up heading into this one. Of course, the Mavs have been a better team off a loss as well, particularly on the road where they've gone 26-15 ATS off a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.5 points. On 39 occasions where the Clippers have come off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, they've actually been outscored by 0.6 points on average. Meanwhile, the Mavs have outscored opponents by an average margin of 3.1 points per game after losing two or more games in a row ATS over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation coming up 43 times. Take Dallas (10*). |
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06-02-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -1 | 103-89 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks have been quite simply outclassed in the last two games in this series but if there were ever a time for them to punch back, this would be it as they face elimination on Wednesday night at MSG. The situation sets up well for New York here. Note that Atlanta has gone just 11-22 when heading on the road following a home game over the last two seasons, outscored by 7.5 points on average in the process. Worse still, the Hawks are 18-34 ATS when coming off two or more wins in a row over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Knicks are an incredible 18-2 ATS when at home with the line set between +3 and -3 this season, as is the case at the time of writing. They're also 19-8 ATS as a favorite this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.6 points. After getting blown out in the last two games it's not going to be difficult at all for the Knicks to get up for this one. Take New York (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Rays v. Yankees +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions but I look for the Yankees to potentially turn the tide on Tuesday night in the Bronx. Tyler Glasnow gets the start for New York. The Yanks will be getting their second look at him this season after chasing him from a start here in New York after only five innings back in mid-April. In fact, Glasnow has failed to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts against the Yankees and has only managed to last six innings against them once in eight career starts. That could be key here tonight as the Rays bullpen has been average at best on the road this season, posting a collective 4.31 ERA and 1.32 WHIP (entering yesterday's action). Domingo German will counter for New York. He has also struggled to work deep into ball games against the Rays although he did go six solid innings in a 6-2 win in his most recent start against them here at home. Note that German has been pitching well, having recorded a 1.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over his last three starts. He also owns a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP not to mention a perfect 4-0 team record in four nighttime starts this season. Behind German is a terrific Yankees bullpen that has posted a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this season (entering yesterday's game). Take New York +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Aces +1.5 v. Sun | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Connecticut at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We were fortunate to cash a ticket fading Connecticut on Sunday as it faded in the game's final minute in an eventual overtime loss against the Lynx. Here, I look for the Sun to fall short once again as they host a surging Las Vegas Aces squad. I noted in Sunday's analysis that the Sun were a road-weary bunch and now they check in playing their seventh game in the last 14 nights in five different cities with not one occasion where they were able to catch their breath with consecutive games at home over that stretch. Meanwhile, Las Vegas comes in having played four of its last five games at home, forced to travel just once over the last two weeks - that being a relatively short trip to Phoenix. The Aces have reeled off three straight victories, going 2-0-1 ATS over that stretch and will be set on earning some revenge here after dropping a 72-65 decision at home against the Sun on May 23rd. While I have a lot of respect for Connecticut, I do feel it is still in line for some regression and should fall short against an elite Las Vegas team on Tuesday night. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
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05-30-21 | Sun v. Lynx +2 | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Connecticut at 7 pm et on Sunday. Connecticut is off to a blazing 6-1 start to the season but I look for it to get tripped up here as it travels to Minnesota to face the winless Lynx on Sunday. Note that the Sun will be playing their sixth game in the last 12 nights, in five different cities. Also note that they're coming off three straight tightly-contested basketball games, all decided by seven points or less. Meanwhile, the Lynx got closer to full strength with the return of Napheesa Collier last time out and while they dropped their fourth game in a row, Collier contributed 14 points, six assists, three rebounds and two blocks in 28 quality minutes. They'll be happy to face someone other than the defending WNBA champion Storm after dropping consecutive double-digit decisions against them. While the Sun may be a little road weary, the Lynx will be playing for just the third time in the last 11 nights. The last time these two teams met we saw Minnesota prevail by nine points last August. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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05-30-21 | Suns +7 v. Lakers | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Suns are in tough right now with Chris Paul battling a painful shoulder injury that has rendered him ineffective over the last two games - both losses. However, with an extra day off between games, I would expect CP3 to at the very least contribute more than he did in Game 3, while I also expect the rest of the Suns to step up off back-to-back losses. Note that Phoenix has been an excellent road team this season, going 24-13 while outscoring the opposition by 2.2 points per game. They're in a fine spot here, having gone 23-11 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 4.4 points on average in that situation. They've also been a tremendous bounce-back team this season, going 21-8 ATS off an ATS loss this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 8.7 points in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lakers check in a miserable 4-17 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home victory over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by a narrow margin of 2.7 points per game in that situation. We're certainly taking a bit of a chance here as Chris Paul's health remains in serious question. However, at the current number, I believe Phoenix is worth a shot in this critical Game 4 matchup. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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05-29-21 | Dream +4 v. Liberty | 90-87 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New York at 2 pm et on Saturday. The Liberty have been one of the biggest surprises in the WNBA in the early going this season, reeling off five wins in their first six games. Meanwhile, Atlanta has quietly turned things around with three straight victories and I believe the Dream will be right there with the Liberty here today. Atlanta's turnaround has coincided with everything clicking on offense as it has poured in 83, 90 and 101 points in its last three contests. It should be able to continue that offensive surge against a middle-of-the-pack New York defense here. Give the Liberty credit for getting off to a hot start, but I'm not sure it's sustainable. They've certainly benefited from facing some struggling opponents in the early going (Indiana twice, Minnesota, Washington, Chicago and Dallas). I'll grab the points with the Dream here. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
NBA First Round Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:35 pm et on Saturday. You probably won't find the majority of bettors looking to back the Heat here as they come off consecutive embarrassing performances to dig themselves a virtually insurmountable 0-3 hole in this series. Believe it or not, I think the Heat are set up well to avoid elimination on Saturday afternoon, however. Note that Milwaukee is just 11-24 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season. Better still, the Bucks are 5-16 ATS after posting three or more consecutive victories this season, outscoring opponents by just 0.7 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Heat have gone 13-3 ATS after giving up 105 points or more in five consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive 7.9 points per game in that spot. The fourth win is generally the toughest in a playoff series and I expect that to hold true here. While the Heat were absolutely crushed in Game 3, at least Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler both managed to post series-high scoring totals. I expect that duo to show some pride and lead the Heat to a strong bounce-back effort here. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-28-21 | Lynx +7.5 v. Storm | Top | 72-82 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
WNBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Seattle at 10 pm et on Friday. As defending WNBA champions, Seattle is likely to get every opponent's best shot this season. Perhaps even moreso here as Minnesota has been idle since dropping a 12-point decision at home against the Storm back on May 20th. The Lynx were right there in that one until Seattle caught fire in the fourth quarter. Here, I look for Minnesota to do a better job of keeping things close for 40 minutes. Note that the extra time off has given the Lynx a chance to get underrated Napheesa Collier back for this matchup. She was a force at both ends of the floor last season and adds to an already talented Lynx lineup. The extra time off should have also served to get former Las Vegas Aces sharp-shooter Kayla McBride better acclimated in the offense. Seattle has reeled off three straight wins since opening the season with a 1-1 split in a two-game set against the Aces. However, the Storm have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games (we settled for a 'push' with Seattle in its three-point win over Connecticut earlier this week). With Minnesota desperate to end its three-game slide to open the season, we'll grab the generous helping of points on Friday night. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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05-28-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
NBA First Round Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Clippers have dug themselves an 0-2 hole heading to Dallas for Game 3 but I don't expect them to panic. No NBA series is really over (for all intents and purposes) until a team goes down 3-0. Here, the Clips are actually set up well as they've gone 22-10 ATS on the road revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Better still, they're an incredible 13-2 ATS after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 19.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Mavs have generally been a better team at home off a loss in recent years, going 6-16 ATS the last 22 times they've returned home following a road victory, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that spot. Dallas has now won three straight meetings in this series, noting that it hadn't even managed to take two straight matchups in the previous nine games between these two teams going back to the bubble in Orlando last summer. A quality road team having gone 21-15, outscoring the opposition by 4.3 points on average, I look for the Clippers to come up with an answer in Big D on Friday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-27-21 | Suns v. Lakers -7 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Lakers (and the 'over') in Game 2 of this series and we'll come right back with them again in Game 3 as the scene shifts to Staples Center in Los Angeles. Chris Paul is obviously the engine that runs the Suns offense. Yes, Devin Booker is electric and capable of going off on any given night, but without a healthy CP3, the Suns aren't going anywhere. Paul is nursing a shoulder injury he suffered in the opener of this series and was limited to just 22 ineffective minutes in Game 2. Now with only a day off between games, I'm not sure how much he can give the Suns on Thursday night. There's probably a better chance we see him go full throttle in Game 4 as there will be a two-day layoff between games. Regardless, the Suns are not well-positioned to take control of this series here, noting they've gone just 5-5 over their last 10 road games after starting the season 19-7 away from home. Meanwhile, home court has suddenly meant something to the Lakers as they've reeled off five straight victories here at home, not coincidentally the streak has had a lot to do with them getting healthier down the stretch. We saw the Lakers clamp down on the Suns offense in Game 2. We've yet to see them turn in their best effort offensively but I do think it's coming. Why not on Thursday, in a pivotal Game 3 matchup on their home floor. Note that L.A. checks in 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six home matchups against Phoenix. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-27-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NHL First Round Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Leafs have cruised to three straight victories in this series to push the Habs to the brink of elimination but I don't expect Montreal to go down without a fight on Thursday. Note that Montreal is an incredible 21-8 when coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. They're also 13-6 when playing on the road after scoring two goals or less in consecutive games over that same stretch, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.5 goals. Meanwhile, the Leafs are just 11-14 after winning three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons. They're also 10-14 when playing their third game in four nights over that stretch, outscored by 0.2 goals on average in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that the Habs have been in a situation where they've been seeking revenge against an opponent for a loss by three or more goals on 11 occasions this season and in that situation they've allowed just 2.1 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average of 0.4 goals. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | 129-141 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Memphis at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We missed badly with the Jazz in Sunday's outright loss in Game 1 against the Grizzlies but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they look to bounce back and even the series at a game apiece. I think Utah was caught a little flat-footed emotionally after Donovan Mitchell was a late scratch in Game 1. All indications leading up to the series-opener were that he would be good to go, but that changed on Sunday afternoon. Now Utah is prepared to move forward without Mitchell, although it does once again sound like he'll likely suit up for Game 2 on Wednesday. Just as they have all season, the Grizzlies exceeded expectations and rode the momentum from their play-in tournament victory to a 112-109 win here in Salt Lake City on Sunday. Note that the Jazz have gone 17-5 ATS when playing consecutive home games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 15.5 points. They're also a solid 63-41 ATS the last 104 times they've played at home off an outright loss as a home favorite, as is the case here. Meanwhile, this has been a bit of a tough spot for the Grizzlies defensively, playing on the road after winning four of their last five games as they've given up 120.3 points per game. I expect a big response from the Jazz here, noting that they've gone 31-6 here at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.8 points on average. Take Utah (10*). |
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05-26-21 | Aces -6 v. Mercury | 85-79 | Push | 0 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll lay the points with the Aces as they look to bounce back from a disappointing home loss against the Sun last time out. Phoenix is also coming off a home loss against Connecticut but will be in tough trying to bounce back against one of the best teams in the league, without one of its best players in Diana Taurasi, who is out indefinitely with a chest injury. The Aces shot a miserable 40.3% from the field in their most recent game with the duo of Liz Cambage and A'ja Wilson scoring just 24 points combined. Expect them to make amends here. Note that the Mercury's only two wins this season have come against Minnesota and Washington, two teams that are missing key players of their own and struggled in the early going this season. Las Vegas will have added motivation here after dropping both matchups with Phoenix last year. The Aces are the better team and I look for them to win this one going away. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-03-21 | North Carolina -5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 14 m | Show |
08-31-21 | Yankees -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
08-30-21 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
08-29-21 | Browns v. Falcons +6 | 19-10 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
08-28-21 | Chargers v. Seahawks -5 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
08-28-21 | UTEP -9 v. New Mexico State | Top | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 465 h 11 m | Show |
08-28-21 | Cubs v. White Sox -1.5 | 7-0 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
08-28-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
08-26-21 | Aces -10.5 v. Dream | Top | 78-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
08-24-21 | Sparks v. Mystics +1.5 | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
08-22-21 | 49ers -5 v. Chargers | 15-10 | Push | 0 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
08-21-21 | Titans v. Bucs -1 | 34-3 | Loss | -108 | 59 h 39 m | Show | |
08-20-21 | Chiefs -2 v. Cardinals | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
08-20-21 | Storm -8 v. Liberty | 99-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
08-19-21 | Edmonton Elks +4.5 v. BC | Top | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
08-19-21 | Patriots v. Eagles +1.5 | 35-0 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 1 m | Show | |
08-19-21 | Angels v. Tigers +1.5 | 13-10 | Loss | -147 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals +1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -158 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
08-14-21 | Dolphins v. Bears -3.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 126 h 34 m | Show | |
08-13-21 | Cowboys +1.5 v. Cardinals | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 47 m | Show | |
08-13-21 | Toronto +6.5 v. Winnipeg | 7-20 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
08-13-21 | Titans v. Falcons | 23-3 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
08-12-21 | BC v. Calgary -7 | 15-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
08-12-21 | Washington Football Team -2 v. Patriots | Top | 13-22 | Loss | -108 | 85 h 31 m | Show |
08-09-21 | Marlins v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
08-08-21 | Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
08-07-21 | Toronto v. Calgary -5 | 23-20 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
08-06-21 | BC v. Saskatchewan -6.5 | 29-33 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
08-02-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
07-25-21 | Canada v. Costa Rica | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
07-24-21 | El Salvador +0.5 v. Qatar | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | 98-105 | Loss | -107 | 37 h 47 m | Show | |
07-17-21 | Qatar -2.5 v. Grenada | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
07-16-21 | Jamaica -1.5 v. Guadeloupe | 2-1 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
07-15-21 | United States -2.5 v. Martinique | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show | |
07-15-21 | Canada v. Haiti +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
07-14-21 | Mexico -2.75 v. Guatemala | 3-0 | Win | 50 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
07-14-21 | Suns +4 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 20 m | Show |
07-12-21 | Guadeloupe +2.25 v. Costa Rica | 1-3 | Win | 50 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
07-09-21 | Lynx v. Aces -6.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
07-08-21 | Yankees v. Mariners +1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
07-07-21 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
07-06-21 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 15-10 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
07-05-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
07-04-21 | Dream v. Aces -15.5 | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
07-03-21 | Denmark v. Czech Republic +0.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -2 | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
06-30-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
06-29-21 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -164 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +7 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
06-29-21 | Ukraine v. Sweden | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
06-26-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1.5 | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
06-23-21 | Poland v. Sweden | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
06-22-21 | Wings +1.5 v. Sun | 70-80 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | 103-96 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets -1 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
06-19-21 | A's +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -165 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
06-19-21 | Germany v. Portugal +0.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
06-17-21 | Lynx v. Wings -5 | 85-73 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
06-16-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
06-14-21 | Czech Republic v. Scotland | 2-0 | Win | 106 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
06-12-21 | Sparks v. Lynx -7.5 | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
06-12-21 | Padres v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
06-11-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
06-11-21 | Storm v. Dream +9.5 | 86-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
06-10-21 | Sparks v. Mystics -4 | 71-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
06-09-21 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Suns | 98-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
06-09-21 | Storm v. Dream +10 | Top | 95-71 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Israel v. Portugal -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
06-07-21 | Cyprus v. Ukraine -1 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
06-06-21 | Jets +1.5 v. Canadiens | 1-5 | Loss | -199 | 34 h 58 m | Show | |
06-06-21 | Greece +0.5 v. Norway | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
06-05-21 | Bucks +4 v. Nets | 107-115 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
06-05-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Phillies | 2-5 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
06-05-21 | Sky +5 v. Sparks | Top | 63-68 | Push | 0 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
06-04-21 | Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
06-04-21 | Portugal +0.25 v. Spain | 0-0 | Win | 50 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers -2 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
06-03-21 | Sky +2 v. Mercury | 74-77 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
06-02-21 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Avalanche | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show | |
06-02-21 | Mavs +7 v. Clippers | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
06-02-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -1 | 103-89 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
06-01-21 | Rays v. Yankees +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
06-01-21 | Aces +1.5 v. Sun | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
05-30-21 | Sun v. Lynx +2 | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
05-30-21 | Suns +7 v. Lakers | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
05-29-21 | Dream +4 v. Liberty | 90-87 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
05-28-21 | Lynx +7.5 v. Storm | Top | 72-82 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
05-28-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
05-27-21 | Suns v. Lakers -7 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
05-27-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
05-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | 129-141 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
05-26-21 | Aces -6 v. Mercury | 85-79 | Push | 0 | 10 h 53 m | Show |