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Jimmy Boyd Basketball Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-04-14 | Northeastern +6.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 49-79 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
5* Non-Conference Game of the Week on Northeastern +
These teams are basically identical statistically, with a few key advantages for the Huskies. Northeastern has been a better rebounding team on the offensive glass, with a +2 rebounding margin on that end of the court. The Commodores on the other hand come into this game with a -2 figure in offensive rebounding margin when playing at home. The Huskies have also been a better ball control team averaging 14 turnovers per game. The statistical advantages are actually much better than they appear on paper. Northeastern has played a much stronger strength of schedule, so the fact that they are putting up such comparable numbers to Vanderbilt tells me the Huskies are actually the better team. Northeastern has close losses against some very good opponents, while the Commodores have been blown out by good teams and they have played in some very close games against bad teams. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Huskies. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Northeastern when they are coming off a loss by six points or less, and playing against an opponent that is coming off a game with a combined score of 110 points or less. This system is 65-32 (67%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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01-04-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs -8 | 92-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -
I like San Antonio's chances to cover a single digit line at home since Los Angeles is playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The Clippers will be without Chris Paul for this matchup, and Paul was a big impact player when these teams met last month. San Antonio has a chance for revenge after being handed one of their most lopsided losses of the season in that game. The Spurs depth will give them a huge advantage over the Clippers. San Antonio leads the NBA with 46.3 points per game from from the bench. They are averaging 104.2 points per game at home this season, and the Spurs defense is allowing a mere 96.7 points per game overall. The Clippers have a 9-9 record on the road this season, and San Antonio will easily be one of the best home teams they have faced. This matchup fits into a very profitable system that backs San Antonio. You should play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Spurs when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more, against a poor defensive team allowing 98-102 points per game, after a combined score of 205 points or more in four straight games. This system is 45-18 (71%) against the spread. |
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01-04-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls -4.5 | 84-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Chicago Bulls -
The Atlanta Hawks have lost five consecutive games in the second leg of a back-to-back situation. They are coming off a heartbreaking single-point loss last night against Golden State, and now have to travel to Chicago to take on a Bulls team that has quietly won four of their last six games. Unlike Atlanta, the Bulls come into this game well rested, getting a break after beating Boston on Thursday. A big reason for Chicago's recent success is their defensive play. Over the last five games they have held opponents to a mere 88.2 points per game. Chicago may not be a high scoring team, but they have a big opportunity to get some points on the board tonight when they face an Atlanta defense that is allowing 105.6 points per game on the road. The Hawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against Eastern Conference opponents. They face a Bulls team that has a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games. In the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams the Bulls have a 4-1 ATS record when playing in Chicago. Chicago is an easy call in this matchup since Atlanta has continuously proven they can't play in the second half of a back-to-back situation. |
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01-04-14 | Oklahoma v. Texas -5.5 | 88-85 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
4* Big 12 No Brainer on Texas -
In a battle of 11-2 teams I think it is the home team that has the biggest advantage. Texas has played a much stronger strength of schedule, and their 8-2 record at home cannot be ignored. The Longhorns are averaging 78.3 points per game this year, but it is their defense that gives them the advantage over the Sooners. They have held opponents to a mere 66.1 points per game at home this season, while Oklahoma is allowing 77.8 points per game overall. Texas also has a huge advantage on the boards. They are +8 in rebounding margin, led by Cameron Ridley with 7.2 rebounds per game. Ridley is also a defensive force averaging 2.4 blocks per game which also leads his team. He is a very athletic player that will be a matchup nightmare for the Sooners. Oklahoma lacks a physical presence in the paint and it has shown against the few talented teams they have faced. They have also had serious turnover problems in those games. The Texas Longhorns are 19-8 ATS in home games when coming off a blowout win of 20 points or more at home. The Longhorns are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning record on the road. The Sooners have a history of struggling against Texas. They are 2-8 in the last 10 head-to-head games against the Longhorns when playing in Texas. |
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01-04-14 | Fairfield v. Manhattan -14 | 57-83 | Win | 106 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Manhattan -
This game should be a lot more lopsided than the oddsmakers expect. The Jaspers are a very good team, indicated by their 10-2 record this season. Fairfield on the other hand has a 3-10 record, and they have struggled to cover several double-digit lines this season. The Stags have lost by double-digits in three of their last five games. Manhattan is averaging 77.5 points per game this season. That gives them just over a 16 point advantage over a Stags team that is averaging 61.2 points per game. Fairfield has been a horrible shooting team, averaging 37.2 percent from the field on the road. They also have a negative figure in rebounding margin, and have been turnover prone at times. Manhattan on the other hand is +2 in rebounding margin and averaging just 13 turnovers per game when playing at home. Fairfield is 3-12 ATS when coming off a road loss, and they are 0-6 ATS when coming off a road loss against a conference opponent. Manhattan comes into this game with a 17-5 ATS record after covering the spread in two of their last three games. The Jaspers are also 35-19 ATS after four or more consecutive wins. The Stags are a very bad team, and I do not give them much chance to keep this game even remotely close against the Jaspers. |
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01-04-14 | Virginia +5 v. Florida State | 62-50 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
4* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia +
The Cavaliers are one of the best defensive teams in basketball, and I think that gives them a big advantage over Florida State in this game. Virginia has held opponents to 56.7 points per game this year, and I do not see a matchup on the court that indicates Florida State has any chance at matching their 77 point per game average. Virginia is a very good team, and after a few games of failing to cover the spread while Florida State has been easily covering the spread I think the oddsmakers have over corrected. Florida State does not do a lot of scoring from the outside. They average just 13 three point attempts per game, and I like the matchup advantages for the Cavaliers big men in this game. The Cavaliers also have the depth that Florida State is lacking. They have eight players averaging over 15 minutes per game, and I think the constantly fresh legs on the court will be another big advantage in Virginia |
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01-04-14 | UC Riverside v. North Texas -8 | 72-76 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
4* Hidden Gem on North Texas -
North Texas comes into this matchup against UC-Riverside with a 6-2 record at home. The Highlanders on the other hand have struggled on the road with a 1-5 record. I think there is a big talent gap between Conference USA and the Big West, so the fact that the Mean Green are laying a single-digit number in this game tells me there is a lot of value on the home team. North Texas has a huge scoring advantage over Riverside in this game. The Mean Green are averaging 74.4 points per game at home, while the Highlanders have averaged a mere 60.3 points per game on the road. When you look at the schedules for both of these teams it is easy to see that UC-Riverside is a very bad team. They have yet to play a decent opponent, and they still come into this game with a 5-8 overall record. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing North Texas. You should play against an underdog like UC-Riverside when they are coming off a home win by 10 points or more, and are playing against an opponent off an upset win as a road underdog of 12 points or more. This system is 24-4 (86%) against the spread. |
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01-04-14 | Denver v. St. Joseph's -7.5 | 52-53 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on St. Josephs -
I think home court advantage plays a big factor in this matchup since Denver is traveling over 1,700 miles to get to this game. The Pioneers have struggled on the road this year posting a 3-5 record. They are scoring a mere 63.5 points in those games. That is not a good sign since they have played a soft schedule and are surrendering 65.9 points per game when playing on the road. St. Josephs may not have an outstanding record at 8-4, but they have played a very tough schedule. Their losses have come against Creighton, LSU, Temple and Villanova, four teams that have a combined 37-11 record. They have won four consecutive games coming into this matchup so I expect their confidence to be high for this matchup with the Pioneers. Denver has a 5-13 ATS record in their last 18 non-conference games. They are also 4-14 ATS in road games after two straight games getting called for five or more fouls than their opponents. St Josephs is 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games against a team with a losing record on the road, and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. I think the Hawks come to play in this one, and easily pick up a win over the Pioneers. |
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01-04-14 | Western Kentucky -5.5 v. Troy State | 60-51 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
3* Sun Belt Oddsmakers Error on Western Kentucky -
This is a very small line for a good team like Western Kentucky to cover. The Hilltoppers have played a very strong schedule, and they come into this game with a 9-5 record. They have faced two ranked opponents this season, and are no stranger to playing on the road since this will be the seventh road game of the season for Western Kentucky. Four of the Trojans eight losses have come by a double-digit margin. They average just 66.5 points per game this season, and have a -2 figure in rebounding margin. That puts them at a big disadvantage against the Hilltoppers who are +4 in rebounding margin, and they are pulling in an average of 13 offensive rebounds per game when playing on the road. I think Western Kentucky |
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01-04-14 | St John's +6.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 60-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
5* Big East Game of the Month on St. Johns +
Georgetown might be one of the most overrated teams in the Big East this season. They come into this matchup against St. Johns with a 9-3 record, suffering losses at the hands of Oregon, Northeastern and Kansas. That may not seem all that bad at first glance, but those games were not even close. Their most recent loss to Kansas came by 22 points. Even their wins have been less than impressive. They won at home against Colgate by a mere six points, and they are coming off a home win by seven points against a very bad DePaul team. I think St. Johns will be the hungry team in this game after suffering a road loss earlier this week at the hands of Xavier. The Red Storm have played two ranked teams, staying within five points of No. 2 ranked Syracuse last month. Their four losses have come against teams with a combined record of 47-8. Their difficult schedule should have them well prepared to take on this overrated Hoyas team. The Red Storm have two key statistical advantages. They are a better rebounding team averaging 38 boards per game, with 10 of those coming on the offensive glass, and they are a better ball control team with just 10 turnovers per game this year. St Johns is 8-0 ATS when coming off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival. They are also 25-12 ATS in road games when coming off a road loss. Georgetown on the other hand has posted a 15-32 ATS record in home games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite. The Hoyas have failed to meet oddsmaker |
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01-03-14 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Hawaii -8.5 | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Hawaii -
Home court advantage will be big for Hawaii since this is such a dramatic time change for Nebraska-Omaha. Combine that with the fact that the Warriors are an underrated team this season and we have the makings for a blowout in this game. Hawaii comes into this matchup with a 10-3 overall record, and they are 8-1 against the spread. The oddsmakers have not been able to set the bar high enough for this team that is averaging 82.4 points per game. The biggest advantage Hawaii has in this matchup is their outstanding defensive play. Nebraska-Omaha has played a soft schedule this year with the exception of their road game against Minnesota. I think their offensive numbers are very inflated, and they will struggle to put up points against this Warriors team that has held opponents to 67.5 points per game at home. The Nebraska-Omaha defense has been soft on the road, allowing opponents to score 79.6 points per game. The Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record. The Warriors on the other hand are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 5-1 in their last six non-conference games. The Warriors have dominated the rebounding margin this season while Nebraska-Omaha is -2 in that category when playing on the road. I expect to see Hawaii get a lot of second chance shot attempts and pick up a double-digit win over the Mavericks. |
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01-03-14 | New Orleans Pelicans -3 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 95-92 | Push | 0 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA Game of the Week on New Orleans Pelicans -
The Pelicans are an easy call in this game. The Celtics lack the offensive firepower it will take to keep pace with this New Orleans team, and Boston has struggled to keep up with oddsmaker |
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01-02-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Utah Jazz -5.5 | 87-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -
The home team is the play in this matchup. The Jazz are a better team defensively than Milwaukee, and I think that gives them a big edge in this matchup. Utah has held opponents to 99.5 points per game at home this year, while Milwaukee is allowing 101.6 points per game on the road. Both teams average 92.7 points on offense, but with the Jazz playing at home against such a soft defense I think they have a good opportunity to improve on that number. The Jazz also have an extra day of rest prior to facing the Bucks. Milwaukee played on New Year's eve, and they with this being their fourth game this week, and third on the road, I expect to see them look run down. The Bucks are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games against Northwest division opponents. They are also 2-10 following a straight up win. Milwaukee is coming off and upset win as an underdog over the Lakers, and I don't think they can put together back-to-back wins on the road. This matchup fits into a system to play against road underdogs like Milwaukee when they are a terrible team being outscored by six or more points per game, and facing an opponent that is coming off a win by six points or less. This system is 106-61 against the spread. The Jazz are also 5-2 in their last seven games when playing with two days of rest, and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games against Central division opponents. |
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01-02-14 | Illinois St v. Missouri State -5 | 70-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Missouri State -
Missouri State is clearly the better team in this game, and I don't think Illinois State has the scoring ability to keep this matchup within five points. Missouri State averages 79.7 points per game at home this season, and they have a perfect 7-0 record. Illinois State has struggled on the road with a 3-3 record, and their defense has been horrible in those games allowing 78.5 points per game. Defensively Missouri State is a very solid team. They are holding opponents to 65.9 points per game at home, and keeping Illinois State in check should be an easy task to accomplish. The Redbirds are averaging just 40 percent from the field this season. Illinois State has also been a very poor rebounding team, and they have major issues with getting into foul trouble. The Redbirds are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. They face a Missouri State Bears team that is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games against Missouri Valley Conference opponents. The Bears are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. The Bears are far too talented to allow Illinois State to keep this game close, and I think Missouri State picks up a big win in this game. |
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01-02-14 | Eastern Kentucky v. Eastern Illinois +9 | 100-81 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Eastern Illinois +
I think the home team has a big advantage in this game, especially as such a large underdog. The Panthers are a much better team than their 4-8 record indicates. They have played well at home this year posting a 3-2 record against a decent strength of schedule. The Panthers are a strong team defensively, holding opponents to just 66.6 points per game at home. Eastern Kentucky has been a horrible rebounding team. They are -6 in rebounding margin, and I think they have benefited from a very soft schedule this year. The Colonels have played some very close games against weak opponents, and they should struggle with the Panthers in this matchup. Eastern Kentucky is allowing over 70 points per game on the road this year, and all four of their losses have come in road games. The Colonels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win, and 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games when coming off a win by more than 20 points. Eastern Kentucky just played one of the worst teams in college basketball, and I think they will struggle against a much stronger team like Eastern Illinois. |
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01-02-14 | Marshall v. Akron -10 | 58-59 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Akron -
Akron should have no problem picking up a double-digit win in this game against Marshall. The Thundering Herd have been terrible defensively, allowing an average of 85.8 points per game. Marshall is yet to win a game on the road this season at 0-6, and they have a 1-4 record against the spread in those games. Akron comes into this came averaging 77.2 points per game at home. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in those games, and have played phenomenal defense. The Zips are holding opponents to a mere 61.8 points per game at home this year. They have also been a solid rebounding team, and I don't see how Marshall will be able to keep this game close when they lose the battle on the boards. Akron is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams winning less than 40 percent of their games on the road. The Thundering Herd come into this game with a 3-12 ATS record in their last 15 games played as a road underdog. With Akron's high powered offensive attack, and their outstanding defensive play there is no way a 5-8 team like Marshall should be able to keep this game close on the road. |
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01-01-14 | Old Dominion +3.5 v. William & Mary | 68-74 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Old Dominion +
William and Mary may score a lot of points, but they have yet to face a team with as strong of a defense as Old Dominion. The Monarchs have held opponents to 65.8 points per game this season, and they have done so against opponents whose offensive scoring average is over 71 points per game. The Tribe have averaged 72.6 points per game which is slightly more than the Monarchs, but their opponents have surrendered 72.7 points per game this year. Another big advantage for the Monarchs is their outstanding rebounding ability. They are +3 in rebounding margin while the Tribe are -1 on the boards. William and Mary has been a very soft team defensively, allowing over 71 points per game. Their soft defense is just what Old Dominion needs to see in order to boost their scoring average over 64.8 points per game. The Monarchs may not score a lot of points, but that has not stopped them from posting a 4-2 ATS record on the road this season. William and Mary is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against C-USA opponents. They are also 10-25 ATS in their last 36 home games against a team with a losing record. Old Dominion comes into this game with a 4-1 ATS record in their last five road games against a team with a winning record at home. This is a non-conference game, so I don |
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01-01-14 | College of Charleston +5.5 v. Davidson | 76-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on College of Charleston +
The Charleston Cougars are a much better team than their 6-7 record indicates. They are a strong rebounding team, and that will give them a big advantage over Davidson in this matchup. The Davidson Wildcats are -5 in rebounding margin, while the Cougars are have a +4 figure in that area. The advantages for Charleston do not end on the boards. They are also very good at staying out of foul trouble, which means Davidson will not be able to get their typical 16 points per game from the free throw line. Davidson is a very weak team defensively. They have allowed an average of 81.7 points per game, and even with the added benefit of playing at home they are giving up over 72 points per game. Meanwhile, Charleston comes into this game holding opponents to just 62.8 points per game overall, and 60.3 points per game when playing on the road. Davidson has a 4-9 record this season, and they are 1-2 in home games. That only home victory came against a team that is not even in NCAA division one basketball. Charleston has been a great team to back on the road. They are 59-29 ATS as a road underdog since 1997. They are also 57-33 ATS after two consecutive non-conference games. Charleston is also 27-12 ATS in road games against teams that average 33 or less rebounds per game. Davidson comes into this matchup with a 1-4 ATS record in their last five home games. I think Charleston has a very good chance to pull off the upset in this game, but since they are on the road we will take the points. |
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12-31-13 | Marquette +9 v. Creighton | 49-67 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Marquette +
The oddsmakers are giving way too much respect to Creighton in this game. Marquette may have five losses on the season, but all of them have come against very respectable opponents, and only one of those five losses came by a double-digit margin. I don |
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12-31-13 | North Texas +13 v. Texas A&M | 61-41 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on North Texas +
The Texas A&M Aggies are nowhere near as good as their 8-3 record would indicate. They have played an incredibly soft schedule, and now that they are facing more division one opponents, they have lost three of their last five games. They are coming off a 12 point neutral court loss to an Oklahoma team that is one of the most overrated squads in college basketball. The Aggies have yet to pick up a quality win this season, and I expect them to struggle with North Texas in this game. The Mean Green are an outstanding rebounding team, and that gives them a huge advantage over the Aggies. North Texas averages 42 rebounds per game, with 11 coming on the offensive glass. They have also been a great ball control team with a mere 13 turnovers per game. The extra rebounds and their ability to avoid turnovers has resulted in an average of over 60 shot attempts per game. Those extra attempts over the Aggies should ensure that this game stays well within the point range we are being spotted in this matchup. The Mean Green are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team winning 60 percent of their games or more. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games when coming off three or more consecutive games at home. The Aggies on the other hand have a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 games against C-USA opponents, and they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a winning record. |
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12-31-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Boston Celtics -2.5 | 92-91 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Boston Celtics -
The Celtics should be a much larger favorite on their home court against Atlanta. The Hawks are 5-10 on the road this season, and their defense has been nothing short of horrible in those games. Atlanta is allowing 106.5 points per game on the road against opponents whose typical offensive average is only 99.4 points per game. The Hawks have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, and they are 3-12 ATS in road games after missing the cover in two or more consecutive games. Boston may not have a great record, but they have played well defensively this season and that gives them a big matchup advantage in this game. They also come into this game with an extra day of rest over the Hawks. This is Atlanta |
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12-30-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Utah Jazz -2 | 80-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on Utah Jazz -
This is a very small number for the Jazz to be laying against a bad team like Charlotte. The Bobcats are entering their second game of a five game road trip, and they have lost three of their last four coming into this stretch. The first loss to start their recent skid came at the hands of the Utah Jazz. Charlotte played host in the last matchup between these teams, but this time it will be the Jazz with home court advantage. There is a lot of value on Utah as a small favorite with the Bobcats coming off an overtime loss in their last game. The wear and tear from playing back-to-back games on the road is hard enough when you only have a single day of rest in-between, but the fact that they also had to play through overtime tells me the Bobcats will be even more worn out than normal. The Bobcats are 19-33 ATS when coming off two or more consecutive losses. This matchup fits into a system to play against underdogs like Charlotte when they are revenging a straight up loss as a favorite against their opponent. This system is 138-86 (62%) against the spread when that team is coming off a road loss where they covered the spread. Charlotte has a 9-28 ATS record in non-conference matchups over the last two seasons, and I expect that trend to continue tonight against the Jazz. |
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12-30-13 | San Francisco +15.5 v. Gonzaga | 41-69 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on San Francisco +
With Dower and Bell both out for Gonzaga, there is a lot of value on San Francisco as such a large underdog in this game. The Dons have a very respectable 8-5 record this season, and their offense should have no problem keeping pace with the Bulldogs. San Francisco is averaging 81.9 points per game this season, shooting over 51 percent from the field. They are also a great ball control team committing just 13 turnovers per game. This biggest weakness for San Francisco has been their defense. They catch a huge break since Dower and Bell will not be in the lineup. The two combined for 26.5 points per game for the Bulldogs, and are second and third on the team in scoring. The biggest hit may not be a loss of points for Gonzaga, but their advantage on the boards instead. Dower is second on the team in rebounds with 6.8 per game, and against a physical team like the Dons I have to believe the rebounding margin swings heavily in San Francisco's favor. The Dons are 46-17 against the spread against West Coast Conference opponents, and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games against a team with a winning record at home. Gonzaga comes into this game having lost four of their last five against the spread. The Bulldogs are also 0-6 ATS in home games when coming off two straight games with nine or less offensive rebounds. With the key injuries suffered by Gonzaga there is simply too much value on San Francisco to pass up. |
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12-30-13 | Ole Miss v. Western Kentucky +2 | 79-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Western Kentucky +
The Ole Miss Rebels have been struggling recently dropping three of their last five games. I expect them to struggle once again today against a Western Kentucky team that has won four of their last five games. The Hilltoppers are coming off a 100+ point performance, so confidence should be high for tonight's matchup with the Rebels. The greatest strength for this Western Kentucky team is a defense that has held opponents to a mere 59.9 points per game. The biggest reason for their success this season has been the Hilltoppers ability to out rebound their opponents. Western Kentucky is +4 in rebounding margin in home games this year, and they are not allowing many second chance opportunities on the offensive glass from their opponents. The Ole Miss Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record. The Hilltoppers come into this matchup with a 5-1 ATS record in their last six games against a team winning 60 percent or more of their games on the season. They are also 19-9 ATS in their last 28 home games. I think the physical play in the paint from Western Kentucky gets them the win at home in this matchup. |
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12-30-13 | Santa Clara v. Portland -7 | 76-68 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Portland -
The Portland Pilots have been a great team to back against the spread this year, and I think the oddsmakers have once again undervalued them in today's matchup with Santa Clara. The Broncos have not fared well against the spread this season, posting a 2-6 record in comparison to a 10-3 ATS record from the Pilots. Santa Clara has averaged a mere 64.6 points per game when playing on the road, and with numbers like that I expect them to struggle keeping pace with this Portland team that has averaged 81.4 points per game at home this season. Santa Clara has played a very soft schedule this season, yet they are still being dominated on the boards. The Broncos have a negative number in rebounding margin, and when playing on the road they have been outrebound by six per game. They also have a poor pressure defense, forcing just 12 turnovers per game on the road. The Pilots on the other hand, come into this game with a positive figure in rebounding margin, and they average seven steals and five blocks per game at home. They are a solid unit defensively, and should have no problem covering a single digit spread against the Broncos. This matchup fits into a system to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Portland when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 76 points per game or more, and they are facing an average defensive team that has allowed 67-74 points per game, when coming off a matchup with a combined score of 165 points or more. This system is 53-18 (75%) against the spread over the last five seasons. If that is not enough, the Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against West Coast Conference opponents, while the Pilots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. |
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12-29-13 | Houston Rockets +4.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 86-117 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets +
There is a lot of value on Houston as an underdog in this matchup. This game could go either way, but it will almost certainly be very close. I don |
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12-29-13 | SE Missouri St. v. Missouri State -7.5 | 78-81 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Missouri State -
SE Missouri State has been very inconsistent this year, and I don |
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12-29-13 | College of Charleston -8 v. The Citadel | 72-48 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on College of Charleston -
The College of Charleston may not have a great overall record, but that is because they have played an extremely difficult schedule this season. The Cougars have faced the likes of Louisville, Miami, San Diego State, and Arizona State this year, while the Citadel have played just two mediocre opponents in Tennessee and Nebraska with both games resulting in 20+ point losses. The Cougars difficult schedule will make the Citadel look like a practice squad in this game. The Citadel Bulldogs have been a very soft team defensively. They are allowing 75.7 points per game against opponents whose offensive scoring average is only at 70.7 points per game. The Cougars on the other hand are allowing a mere 64.1 points per game and have actually played better on the road allowing just 62.8 points. Charleston |
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12-28-13 | Western Illinois v. UTEP -12 | 64-67 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on UTEP -
The Miners are playing host in the Sun Bowl Invitational, and I don |
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12-28-13 | Philadelphia 76ers +11 v. Phoenix Suns | 101-115 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 30 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on Philadelphia 76ers +
The Phoenix Suns might be the most overrated team in the NBA right now. They opened the season with an impressive run, and there is certainly no denying that. However, I don |
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12-28-13 | Tulane +13.5 v. Kansas State | 41-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Tulane +
This is a lot of points for Tulane to be receiving on a neutral court. The Green Wave come into this game with a 7-6 overall record and they have won three of their last four games. Tulane has a very significant scoring advantage over Kansas State. They average 70.8 points per game to just 66.5 points from the Wildcats. The Green Wave are also averaging one turnover per game less than the Wildcats, and shooting eight percent better from the free throw line. The better shooting does not end at the free throw line. They have also made six percent more of their attempts from beyond the three point line. The Green Wave are the better scoring team, and I just don |
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12-27-13 | Phoenix Suns v. Golden State Warriors -6 | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Golden State -
The last time these teams met the game was playing in Phoenix and the Suns walked away with a four point win. This is a chance for revenge for the Warriors who will play host to their division rival. Golden State is hot right not having won four of their last five games. They are playing with a day of rest, and I think that gives them an advantage over a Suns team that will be shaking off a little rust since they have not played a game since before the holiday. A big reason for Golden State's recent success has been their outstanding defensive play. The Warriors have held two of their last three opponents under 85 points. They average 104.9 points per game at home this season. They should continue to score at will against a Phoenix defense allowing 104.5 points per game against division opponents, and I like their chances for the defense to shine against the rusty Phoenix Suns. The Suns have struggled when playing good teams. They are 16-30 against the spread when playing a team that is outscoring their opponents by three or more points per game. You should play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Phoenix when they are coming off a win by 20 points or more over a division opponent, and facing a team that is coming off a home win like Golden State. This system is 29-8 (78%) against the spread. |
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12-27-13 | Lafayette v. Seton Hall -11.5 | Top | 58-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* CBB Game of the Month on Seton Hall -
The Seton Hall Pirates are clearly the better team in this game. The Pirates average 79 points per game at home, and I think there is a big opportunity to score even more tonight against a Lafayette defense that has allowed an average of 76 points per game on the road. The Pirates are also a great foul drawing team, and averaging over 74 percent from the free throw line will give them another key advantage. The Pirates should dominate the boards in this matchup. They are +2 in rebounding margin, while the Lafayette Leopards are -1. Things will not get any easier for the Leopards tonight because they will be up against Seton Hall's Gene Teague. This season Teague has five double-doubles. He averages 10.2 points per game and 9.3 rebounds. The Leopards do not have a player on the court that will be able to compete with Teague on the offensive glass, and those second chance shot attempts will be a big difference maker in this game. This matchup fits into a system to play on home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points from a major division one conference when they are coming off a home win scoring 85 points or more and they are playing against a team from a mid-major conference. This system is 147-87 (62.8%) against the spread. Lafayette will be without their best player Seth Hinrichs who is out indefinitely with a knee injury. With Seton Hall already having a big statistical advantage over the Leopards, I can't see how Lafayette will be able to stick withing 11 points on the road against the Pirates. |
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12-26-13 | Memphis Grizzlies +8 v. Houston Rockets | 92-100 | Push | 0 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on Memphis +
This is a lot of points for the Grizzlies to be receiving considering Houston is coming off a big emotional win last night. Playing in a back-to-back situation at this point in the season is a hard enough task on its own, but after crushing the San Antonio Spurs yesterday I am not sure the Rockets will be coming into this game with the mentality it takes to pull off a near double-digit win. The Grizzlies have been solid on the road this season, posting a 6-5 record, and scoring should not be a problem against this Rockets defense allowing 102.3 points per game. The Grizzlies have played well recently, picking up wins in their last two games. I think there is a lot of value on a team coming into this game with two days to prepare. It has taken some time, but it seems like the Grizzlies are finally starting to adjust to the loss of Marc Gasol. In their last five games Memphis has held opponents to 96.6 points per game, and their stingy defense should give them a great chance to pull off an upset in Houston. The Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games when playing on two days of rest. They are also 73-44 ATS in road games when playing just their second game in a five day stretch. Houston on the other hand has posted a 0-6 ATS record in their last six games following a straight up win, and they are 8-28 ATS in home games when playing their fifth game in seven days. |
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12-25-13 | Oregon St v. Hawaii -4.5 | 73-79 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Hawaii -
Hawaii is a very undervalued team laying just 4.5-points against the Beavers. They come into this matchup with an 8-3 overall record, and a 7-1 record against the spread. The Warriors have been dominant on the boards, at +6 in rebounding margin to -6 from the Beavers when playing on the road. That gives them a very significant matchup advantage over Oregon State. They also have the benefit of playing at home where they have five wins by a double-digit margin this season. Not only are the Beavers at a disadvantage in rebounding, but they are a horrible team defensively. They have allowed 78.2 points per game on the road this season, and that is big trouble when facing a Hawaii team that has averaged over 83 points per game. The Beavers are not good at forcing turnovers, and they have a horrible perimeter defense. Hawaii is shooting just shy of 50 percent from the field at home, and they are averaging almost 37 percent from beyond the three-point line. The Warriors have been a great team to back when playing with a single day of rest. Over the last three seasons they have a 15-6 ATS record when playing with one or less days of rest, while the Beavers come into this game with a 4-12 ATS record when coming off one or more consecutive wins. Oregon State has barely matched oddsmakers expectations this year, with their last two ATS wins coming by a margin of just 1.5 points combined. Hawaii, on the other hand, has four double-digit wins out of five games as a single-digit favorite. |
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12-23-13 | New Orleans Pelicans +1 v. Sacramento Kings | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider in New Orleans Pelicans +
The Kings are one of the worst teams in the league this year, and there is a lot of value on the Pelicans in today's matchup. New Orleans is coming into this game playing with a day of rest after playing a close game with Portland in their last outing. They will surely be trying to end their five game road trip on a positive note. The Kings come into this game having lost five of their last seven games. The Pelicans will have a significant matchup advantage against this soft Sacramento defense. The Kings are allowing 103.3 points per game this year, and they will have their hands full against a Pelicans team that has had no problem putting up big offensive numbers. New Orleans comes into this matchup averaging 102.4 points, and they have the luxury of facing a Sacramento team that is just 5-10 straight up and against the spread at home this season. This will be Sacramento's fifth game in the last seven days, and they are 29-61 ATS when playing in this scenario. They are also 5-15 as a home favorite of six points or less over the last two seasons. The Pelicans on the other hand are 31-14 ATS in road games when coming off four or more consecutive losses. The Kings have a 4-13 ATS record in their last 17 home games against a team with a losing record and it seems the oddsmakers have once again given them too much credit in today's matchup. |
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12-23-13 | Toronto Raptors v. San Antonio Spurs -11.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -
San Antonio has been dangerously good at home this year. They are 9-3 in home games, while Toronto is just 6-6 on the road. The Spurs are scoring 102.9 points per game at home, and they should have no problem exceeding that number against a soft defense like Toronto's that has allowed opponents an average of 99 points per game this year. The Spurs have played extremely well defensively, and they get a day of rest while the Raptors are playing on back-to-back nights. With Toronto coming into this game having won three of their last four games, and the Spurs losing two of their last four I think we are getting a lot of value on San Antonio. The Spurs clearly outmatch the Raptors, and I don't think recent results are relevant in this game considering the opponents these teams have faced recently. The Spurs recent losses have come against the Clippers and Thunder, two teams that are considerably better than the Raptors. San Antonio is 31-16 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons. The Raptors come into this matchup with a 16-34 ATS record against good shooting teams that are making over 48 percent of their attempts from the field. The Spurs have posted an 18-7 ATS record when playing against a losing team that has won just 40 to 49 percent of their games on the season. With San Antonio coming into this game with a day of rest and the Raptors playing last night on the road I think the Spurs are poised to win this game in a blowout. |
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12-23-13 | IUPU-Indianapolis +11.5 v. SE Missouri St. | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on IUPU-Indianapolis +
The Redhawks come into this matchup having lost their last two consecutive games. I think the loss to Memphis puts them in a letdown spot against the IUPU Jaguars today. These two teams are lot more evenly matched than their records indicate. The Jaguars have played a few bad games that make them look much worse statistically than they actually are. Their 29.5 percent shooting from the field against Marquette was an anomaly, and I expect a much stronger performance in what will be their second game of the season against SE Missouri State. The Jaguars are a very good ball control team, and I don't think SE Missouri State can win this game by a double-digit margin without a very lopsided figure in the turnover margin. IUPU averages just 11 turnovers per game, and they have also done a great job of avoiding foul trouble. In games that end in a blowout there is almost always a clear advantage in turnovers or points from the free throw line, and the Redhawks simply won't be able to win those battles in this game. SE Missouri State is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when coming off a loss. The last time these teams met the game was decided by just eight points back in November. This matchup falls into a system to play on road underdogs of 10 points or more when they are revenging a home loss against their opponent, and they are playing their second road game in three days. This system is 120-72 against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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12-23-13 | Milwaukee Bucks +7 v. Charlotte Bobcats | 110-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Milwaukee Bucks +
There is a lot of value on Milwaukee as such a large underdog with Caron Butler back in the lineup. In his first game back from a knee injury Butler came up big with 22 points and 11 rebounds. It was one of the best offensive performances of the season for the Bucks who ended up winning 116-106 against Philadelphia. The Bucks are a team that will rapidly improve as they get healthy players back on the roster, and tonight is a perfect opportunity to jump on them before the oddsmakers catch on. This will be Charlotte's fifth game in the last seven days, and if their last performance against Utah is any indication it appears the brutal stretch of schedule is starting to catch up with them. The Bobcats lost outright as a home favorite against Utah even though they had one of their best defensive performances of the season. They managed to score just 85 points on the offensive end of the court, and that won't be enough to keep pace with this Bucks team that has gone over 100 points in each of their last three games. The Bobcats have not received a lot of benefit from playing at home posting a mere 7-9 record. They have a matching record against the spread in those games. In their last five games Milwaukee has averaged 102.2 points per game. The Bucks offense is hot right now, and they should have no problem keeping this game close against a Charlotte team that is averaging 90.9 points per game at home this season. |
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12-23-13 | Loyola-Chicago v. Fordham -8.5 | 69-83 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Fordham -
This game has blowout written all over it. Loyola has been a great team to fade this year, and it seems the oddsmakers have still not caught on to just how bad the Ramblers are this year. They have posted a 1-8 record against the spread, and they are just 1-5 straight up and against the spread when playing on the road this season. Fordham comes into this game with a 4-1 record at home, and I like them to play another outstanding game defensively against Loyola. The Rams have a knack for stepping up their level of play in home games. They average 79.6 points per game, and on the defensive end of the court they have surrendered just 66.5 points when playing at home. Meanwhile, the Ramblers come into this game averaging just 64.8 points per game on the road. Loyola has played a very soft schedule this year, and they still cannot meet oddsmakers expectations. Fordham should be well prepared for this game after facing the likes of Syracuse and St John's already this season. The Fordham Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a losing record, and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. They are up against a Ramblers team that is coming off a 49 point performance against Northern Illinois in their last game. Loyola is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 50 points or less in their previous game. The Rams have consistently outperformed the oddsmakers expectations in non-conference play, posting an 11-4 ATS record dating back to last season and we will ride them to victory again today. |
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12-22-13 | Santa Clara v. UNLV -9 | 71-92 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on UNLV -
This game has blowout written all over it. The Runnin' Rebels have been a great team to back in non-conference play posting a 6-0 ATS record in their last six games. UNLV comes into this game with one of the best defenses in college basketball, holding opponents to a mere 57 points per game on the road. They have played a tough schedule in the process, facing the likes of Illinois and Arizona. Santa Clara is not a good team. They are scoring just 63.7 points per game on the road, and have a 1-3 record in those games. This is technically a tournament game for the Rebels, but they will be playing host in this Continental Tire Las Vegas Classic. With the backing of their home crowd I expect to see the Rebels easily pick up a double-digit win. They are an outstanding rebounding team, averaging 44 rebounds per game while allowing opponents just 39 boards per game. Santa Clara has been a great team to fade the past few years. They have a 25-40 ATS record in all games, and they are keeping on that pace this year with a 0-5 ATS record to open the season. UNLV comes into this game with a 48-30 ATS record when playing with one or less days of rest, and they are a hot team having won four of their last five games. That lone loss was a close game on the road against Arizona, losing by just five points to arguably one of the best teams in the country. The talent gap between Santa Clara and UNLV is a big one, and it will show in this matchup. |
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12-22-13 | Toronto Raptors +11 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on Toronto Raptors +
Toronto is a much better team than they are getting credit for in this matchup. They have the benefit of getting the Thunder who are playing in a back-to-back situation after facing the San Antonio Spurs last night. That was a big win for the Oklahoma City, and I don't see them coming into this game with the mentality it takes to win by a double-digit margin. Toronto has played well recently winning four of their last six games both straight up and against the spread. They are playing with a day of rest which gives them a big advantage over the Thunder. The Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games overall, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a winning record at home. You should play against a home favorite of 10 points or more like Oklahoma City when they have won eight or more of their last 10 games and have a winning record on the season when they are facing a team with a losing record. This system is 105-59 (64%) against the spread over the last five seasons. With a day of rest, and after winning three of their last four I like the Raptors chances to play a close game with the Thunder today. |
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12-22-13 | DePaul +1.5 v. Illinois St | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on DePaul +
Illinois State is clearly outmatched in this game. The Redbirds have serious rebounding issues this season, and they have also been getting into a lot of foul trouble. Those extra rebounds, as well as the extra points from the free throw line give DePaul a significant matchup advantage. The Blue Demons come into this game with a +3 figure in rebounding margin, while the Redbirds are -5 in that category. Illinois State has averaged 24 fouls per game, so expect the Blue Demons to be playing from the bonus early on. Another factor favoring the Blue Demons is their overall strength of schedule in comparison to Illinois State. DePaul has a better record, and they have been winning games against better teams than the Redbirds. The Blue Demons have won four of their last five games coming into this matchup. Illinois State is coming off a game where they squeaked by a weak Tennessee State team, and prior to that they were crushed in a matchup with Oakland. The Redbirds have not shot above 38 percent from the field in their last two outings. Illinois State is 10-26 in their last 36 home games against a team with a winning record. DePaul is coming off a blowout win over Houston Baptist and they are 13-4 ATS on the road when coming off a home win by 20 points or more. The Blue Demons are also 27-13 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal team that has won 51% to 60% of their games on the season. DePaul is clearly the better team, and they should have no problem picking up a win over Illinois State in this matchup. |
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12-21-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Clippers -8 | 91-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on LA Clippers -
The Clippers are loaded with talent, and they should have no problem picking up a blowout win over the Nuggets in this game. They have a beast with DeAndre Jordan, and the combination of Blake Griffin and Chris Paul simply make them too much to handle for this struggling Nuggets team that has lost three of their last four games. Jordan is tied for second in the NBA with an average of 13 rebounds, and tied for fourth with 2.2 blocks per game. The Clippers come into this matchup having won five of their last six games. They are playing at home with two nights of rest, and that gives them a huge advantage over a Nuggets team that is coming off a four point loss just last night against Phoenix. The Clippers are 10-2 in home games, and they are scoring 111.2 points per in each of those games. Against a soft Nuggets defense that is playing without rest I think they should have no problem putting up another huge offensive number tonight. The Nuggets come into this game with a 2-8 ATS record in their last 10 games against Pacific division teams. The Clippers on the other hand are 4-0 ATS in their last four against Western Conference opponents. The Nuggets have struggled on the road against teams with a winning home record, posting a 4-9 ATS record in those games. Denver is also 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing without a day of rest. |
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12-21-13 | Utah Jazz +4.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | 88-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +
The Jazz have won eight consecutive games over the Bobcats, and with Utah playing better recently I have to believe they will make it nine straight. Both teams are playing in a black-to-back situation, and both have won three of their last six games. It is Utah's scoring ability that gives them a significant advantage in this game. The Jazz are averaging 93.1 points per game, but are more than capable of scoring in the triple digits. They are also a much better shooting team than the Bobcats, especially from the three throw line. The Jazz are coming off a bad loss last night, but they are a team that has responded well to a poor performance in the past. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points. Playing in a back-to-back situation has not had as big of an impact on Utah as it has Charlotte. The Bobcats are 14-31 ATS when playing without a day of rest. They are also 14-36 ATS against teams from the Northwest division. I don't think home court advantage will do much for the Bobcats in this game. Charlotte is 32-55 ATS in home games over the last three seasons. They are also 8-27 ATS when playing in a non-conference game. In the Bobcats recent win streak they have benefited from poor shooting performances from their opponents. It has certainly not been the Bobcats defense winning games because their points surrendered in their last give games is above their overall season average. I expect Utah to win this game straight up, but we will still take the points. |
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12-21-13 | Davidson v. North Carolina -19 | 85-97 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on North Carolina -
The Tar Heels are clearly the better team, and they are playing like one of the best teams in the country right now. They are coming off a tough three point loss to Texas, and I think they will respond with a big performance against Davidson in this game. North Carolina is averaging 78.7 points per game at home, but they should be able to put up an even bigger number than that against this soft Davidson defense. The Wildcats have given up an average of 83.5 points per game on the road this season. They allowed 111 points against Duke, and against a prolific scoring team like North Carolina things could get out of hand very quickly. The Tar Heels are a great rebounding team with 41 boards per game including 13 on the offensive glass. Davidson has struggled to pull in rebounds, so I expect North Carolina to get a lot of second and third chance shot attempts. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against ACC opponents, and 8-20 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games. They have struggled on the road with a 19-40 ATS record, and are 5-11 ATS against teams winning over 60% of their games. The Tar Heels on the other hand have posted an 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games following an ATS loss, and they are 22-8 ATS in home games against a team with a losing record. I expect North Carolina to pull away early and never look back. |
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12-21-13 | Middle Tenn. St. v. Cincinnati -9 | 48-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Cincinnati -
The Bearcats should easily be a double-digit favorite in this game, but we will happily take advantage of this oddsmakers oversight. Cincinnati has two very respectable losses this season, and they did a great job of responding to those back-to-back losses by winning straight up as an underdog earlier this week against Pittsburgh. Now they have the benefit of playing a traditional home game, a place where they are 7-0 straight up and 2-0 ATS this season. Middle Tennessee is nowhere near as good as their 8-3 record indicates. They have played an extremely soft schedule and two of their three losses came by a double-digit margin. The only loss that didn't come by more than 10 points was a nine-point loss last week against Ole Miss in a game that was never as close as the final score. The Blue Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record, and they are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games. You should play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Middle Tennessee when they average 74-78 points per game and are coming off a win by 15 points or more, and they are playing against a team that is averaging 67-74 points per game. This system identifies teams that are being overvalued by the oddsmakers. It has led to a 111-60 (65%) record against the spread. |
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12-21-13 | Murray State v. Western Kentucky -8 | 64-71 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Western Kentucky -
The Hilltoppers should have no problem winning this game in a blowout. They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against Ohio Valley opponents, and they are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games against a team with a losing record on the road. Murray State is not a good team this year. They are 0-4 in road games, and a mere 5-5 overall this season. Western Kentucky has dominated at home with a perfect 5-0 record. It is Western Kentucky's defense that gives them the biggest advantage in this game. They have held opponents to a mere 58 points per game at home this season. The Hilltoppers offense has struggled at times, but they will have no problem getting points on the board against a Racers defense that is allowing 77.7 points per game on the road. The Racers have played an easy schedule in the month of December, and I think that has earned them a little too much credibility with the oddsmakers. They are 0-8 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games. They also have a long history of under performing on the road against non-conference opponents with a 31-51 ATS record. I like the Hilltoppers to pick up a double-digit victory in this game with a strong defensive performance. |
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12-21-13 | Belmont v. Kentucky -17.5 | 80-93 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Kentucky -
This game has blowout written all over it. The Wildcats are coming off a tough loss to North Carolina, and they will want to respond with a big win over Belmont in this game. The Bruins are in a slump right now having lost their last two straight games. They were blown out in their last outing on the road against Denver, and there is no reason to expect a different result in this game as they face one of the best teams in the country. It will be hard for Belmont to keep pace with this Kentucky team that averages 84.7 points per game at home this season, especially since the Wildcats defense has been very stingy by holding opponents to 60.6 points in those games. Belmont is a poor rebounding team, and that puts them at a huge disadvantage in this matchup. Kentucky averages 48 rebounds per game with 16 on the offensive glass in home games. Meanwhile, the Bruins have averaged just 30 rebounds per game on the road, with just eight of those coming as offensive rebounds. I expect Kentucky to get a lot of second and third chance shot attempts in this game. They should pull away early and never look back in this matchup. The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 4-1 in their last five home games against a team with a winning record on the road. Belmont on the other hand is 2-10 ATS in road games against teams shooting over 45 percent on the season. Lay the points on the Wildcats because this game will be a blowout. |
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12-20-13 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Minnesota -15 | 79-92 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Minnesota -
Nebraska-Omaha has been on a five game run, but they have benefited from a soft schedule. Four of those five games have come against teams that do not even play division one basketball. They also benefited from an unsustainable shooting percentage, and I think that ends tonight against the Golden Gophers. Minnesota has held opponents to a mere 62 points per game at home, while scoring an average of 78.9 points in those games. The Mavericks have struggled against good opponents. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record. Their defense has been soft this year, allowing an average of 76.2 points per game on the road. They are at a big disadvantage on the boards in this matchup. The Gophers are +5 in rebounding margin at home, while Nebraska-Omaha is -3 when playing on the road. Minnesota has played a much stronger schedule than the Mavericks, and the talent gap between these teams will show on the scoreboard. Minnesota is 9-2 ATS at home when coming off a home win. They are also 15-6 ATS when coming off a win regardless of venue. The Gophers are undefeated straight up and against the spread at home this season. Minnesota is a great ball control team averaging just 10 turnovers per game at home, while the Mavericks have averaged 14 turnovers per game on the road. Nebraska-Omaha has yet to face a defense as talented as Minnesota, and I expect turnovers to be a major issue for them in this game. |
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12-19-13 | Texas St +15 v. Utah | 50-69 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Texas State +
This line seems to be overvaluing the Utes. There have not been many games on the schedule that look very challenging for Utah, aside from their last game against a BYU team that we now know was overrated coming into the season. That was a big win over a rivalry opponent, and I have the Utes playing in a letdown situation tonight. Its likely Utah is still going to win this game, but Texas State should give them a scare, and 15 points is simply too many to pass up. The Bobcats are a great ball control team. They average just 13 turnovers per game. They run a slow paced game, so statistically they may not immediately look like a strong team offensively, but the talent is certainly there. Texas State has a positive number in rebounding margin, averaging 33 boards per game while opponents average just 31 per game. The Bobcats are shooting over 44 percent from the field on the road this year, and have been lethal from beyond the three point line. Texas State is 13-3 against the spread in road games when coming off a double-digit loss. They are also 12-3 ATS when playing a second consecutive road game or more. You should play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like Utah when they are shooting 32 to 36.5 percent on three point attempts and playing against a defense that has allowed over 36.5 percent on three point attempts. This system is 166-102 (62%) against the spread. This angle is extremely significant because the Bobcats vulnerability has been their perimeter defense, but the Utes are not a big scoring team from the outside. |
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12-19-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Oklahoma City Thunder -13 | 95-107 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on Oklahoma City -
Since Derrick Rose went out the Bulls have lost 10 of their 13 games. They are not just losing, they are getting crushed. They have covered the spread two times in that 13 game span. Now we catch them up against one of the hottest teams in the league when they face the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder are averaging 107.7 points per game at home and they should have no problem outscoring a Bulls team that averages just 90.5 points per game. The Thunder also have the advantage from a rest profile perspective. They had the night off yesterday and will face a Bulls team that is coming off a demoralizing loss to Houston last night. Chicago was on the road again last night, and at this point they have to be throwing in the towel until they can get some rest, and regroup playing at home. Their game against Houston was not even close, getting beat by 15-points last night. Oklahoma City has covered the spread in six of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Bulls have posted a 7-17 ATS record this season. In the month of December Chicago is 1-8 against the spread. Don't let the Bulls defense trick you into thinking they have a chance in this game. The Thunder are 16-5 ATS against good defensive teams that have allowed a shooting percentage on defense of less than 43 percent over the last three seasons. The bleeding won't stop in Oklahoma City for the Bulls, so lay the points on the Thunder. |
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12-19-13 | South Dakota v. Morehead St. -7.5 | 83-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Morehead St -
The advantages for Morehead State in this game are big. First, they have dominated opponents in rebounding margin, especially when playing at home. The Eagles are 3-1 in home games, averaging 45 rebounds per game with 16 coming on the offensive end of the court. Meanwhile, South Dakota has been losing the rebounding margin. Another problem for the Coyotes is their lack of pressure defense. South Dakota is averaging just five steals per game, and without any kind of pressure defense this game will get out of hand early. Morehead State averages 86 points per game at home. With their significant rebounding advantage, and their ability to draw fouls they are going to get extra shot attempts and score more points against South Dakota. The Eagles average 68 shot attempts per game at home while South Dakota is averaging just 55 attempts from the field. The Eagles are coming off a pair of tough losses, but I expect them to bounce back with a strong performance tonight. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss. South Dakota has lost four consecutive games coming into this matchup, and they are showing no signs of improvement. Expect Morehead State to have a lot more shot attempts from the field and free throw line in this game, making the single digit spread an easy number to cover. |
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12-18-13 | Houston Baptist v. DePaul -15.5 | 58-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on DePaul -
The Blue Demons have several significant matchup advantages in this game. It starts on the defensive end of the court. Houston Baptist has allowed an average of 77.7 points per game this year, and that number bumps up to 80.7 points surrendered when they are playing on the road. The Huskies are 1-6 in road games this season, and defending a DePaul team that averages 78.6 points per game will be no easy task to accomplish. Houston Baptist has struggled to get points on the board in road games, averaging a mere 61.3 points per game. The Huskies are negative in rebounding margin this season, while the Blue Demons sit with a +4 figure in that area. DePaul is a great ball control team averaging 14 turnovers per game. They face a Huskies team that has a poor pressure defense, getting just four steals per game. Against common opponents this season Houston Baptist is 0-3. They have committed an average of 18.3 turnovers in those games, and have been getting crushed on the boards. The Huskies are a poor three point shooting team, averaging just 30.8 percent on their attempts. DePaul on the other hand, has shot 37 percent from beyond the three point line. Getting open shots should not be an issue in this game since the Huskies have a poor perimeter defense. Houston Baptist has allowed opponents to shoot 37.3 percent on three point attempts in road games this year. |
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12-18-13 | Western Michigan +5.5 v. Drake | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Western Michigan +
The Drake Bulldogs are not as good as their 6-3 record, and they have not received a lot of benefit when playing at home this year. The Bulldogs are 2-2 at home straight-up, and 1-2 against the spread in those games. They have lost two straight, and are shooting below 40 percent from the field in their last two outings. Western Michigan has been solid defensively this year. They are holding opponents to just 62.2 points per game. They have played a tough schedule, and and have one common opponent with the Bulldogs. The Broncos have a six point win, while Drake suffered a 12 point loss against New Mexico State. The Bronco's stingy perimeter defense will be difficult for the Bulldogs to overcome since they rely heavily on their three-point shooting ability to win games. Drake is 0-6 ATS when coming off a home loss by 10 points or more. The Bulldogs are also 4-15 ATS in home games when coming off a performance shooting 20 percent or worse on three point attempts. The Broncos on the other hand are 4-0 ATS when coming off a loss, and I think they will put on a strong showing at the Knapp Center tonight. |
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12-18-13 | Tenn Chattanooga v. UAB -20 | 52-67 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on UAB -
Chattanooga has four wins this season, only one of which has come against a division one school, and it was against the 4-8 IUPUI Jaguars. The Mocs have been blown out by a double-digit margin in five of their seven losses this season. Chattanooga is a very bad team, and they are up against a Blazers team that is 8-2 on the year and coming off four consecutive wins. This game has blowout written all over it. The Blazers should score at will against a Chattanooga team that has allowed an average of 88 points per game on the road. The Mocs are 1-6 in road games, while the Blazers are a perfect 6-0 at home. UAB has averaged 78.9 points per game against opponents who have surrendered an average of just 72.4 points so they should be able to put up huge offensive numbers against Chattanooga tonight. The Blazers are 28-13 ATS in home games when coming off a performance in which they scored 80 points or more. UAB has dominated the boards this year averaging 50 rebounds per game, 16 on the offensive glass, while allowing opponents just 33 rebounds in those games. That +17 figure in rebounding margin gives them a big advantage against any opponent they face. The Blazers have also been great at avoiding turnovers, and they should score at-will in this matchup against the Mocs. |
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12-18-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Toronto Raptors -5.5 | 104-102 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Toronto Raptors -
I think we are getting a lot of value on Toronto after Charlotte's uncharacteristic shooting performance on Tuesday. They made 8 of 17 attempts from beyond the three point line, but Charlotte is actually last in the league in that department shooting just 29.7 percent on the season. I don't expect that to be a performance they can repeat, especially against a Raptors team that has won three of their last four games. The Bobcats are not a big scoring threat. They average just 89.5 points per game on the road, and they should struggle mightily against Toronto. The Bobcats are playing in a back-to-back situation after facing off with Sacramento last night. Toronto on the other hand is playing on three days of rest, so they will be the fresh team on the court tonight. The Bobcats are 22-46 ATS when playing six or more games in the last 10 games, and they are 14-29 ATS when coming off a game they covered the spread. This is a revenge game for the Raptors after losing by just two points earlier this season. Toronto is 72-48 ATS when revenging a loss of three points or less. |
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12-18-13 | Massachusetts -2.5 v. Ohio | 83-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on UMass -
UMass might be one of the most underrated teams in the country right now. They have yet to garner any respect from the oddsmakers, and that has led to an 8-1 ATS record this season. The Minutemen are a perfect 9-0 straight up, with impressive wins over Boston College, New Mexico, Clemson and BYU. They have played a tough schedule and have been winning in dominating fashion all year. Ohio has played a soft schedule through the first nine games of the season. Their 10 point loss against Ohio State seems to be earning the Bobcats a little too much credibility, but I don't put a lot of stock in that game. It was against an in-state opponent, and came early in the season when teams are still working out their early season issues. The Bobcats were crushed by 17 points against a very mediocre Oakland team, so I can only imagine how bad things will be against a tough opponent like UMass. UMass has dominated the offensive glass, and they have done a great job of drawing fouls. Those extra shot attempts from winning the rebounding margin, and points from the free throw line are more than enough of an advantage to cover such a small line. UMass is no stranger to playing on the road this year, so I don't expect Ohio to draw much benefit from home court advantage. The Minutemen are a perfect 6-0 on the road, and it will take a better team than the Bobcats to end their undefeated record. This matchup fits into a system to play on a team like UMass that has beaten the spread by 30 or more points combined in their last five games when they are a team from a second tier division 1 conference and playing against an opponent from a mid-major conference. This system is 57-26 (69%) against the spread. |
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12-18-13 | NC State v. Tennessee -7.5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Tennessee -
The Volunteers have three losses coming into this game, but all three of those games have been played against very good opponents, and their margin of loss has been in the single digits. Those losses have also come either on the road or a neutral court games. Tonight they get to play host to an NC State team that is nowhere near as good as their 7-2 record would indicated. The Wolfpack have yet to win a game over decent opponent. Their last three wins have come against teams that are a combined 12-20 on the season. The Wolfpack have a double-digit loss on the road against Cincinnati, and they were beat in overtime against North Carolina Central. The Volunteers will easily be one of the best opponents they have faced, and I expect them to struggle mightily on the road in this game. Tennessee has been dominant at home this year scoring 83 points per game, while their defense has held opponents to a mere 63.7 points per game. That has led to a 4-0 record in home games. The Volunteers respond well when coming off a loss. After losing to UTEP they had a chance for revenge against Xavier, and they took full advantage by putting a 15-point beat down on the Musketeers. The Wolfpack are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games, while the Volunteers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played at home. Tennessee is also 13-5 ATS when coming off a straight-up loss. Mark Gottfried is 3-14 ATS as a head coach when coming off a close home win by three points or less. NC State was lucky to squeak by (5-6) Detroit, and I don't think that luck will continue today against this undervalued Volunteers team. |
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12-17-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets +3 | 105-93 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
3* Bailout Blowout on Denver Nuggets +
The Thunder's win streak should come to an end today against the Denver Nuggets. This is Oklahoma City's fifth game since last Tuesday, while the Nuggets are playing in just third third game during that same time span. The Nuggets have been dangerously good at home this season posting a 7-3 record, and they have been on fire winning 10 of their last 13 games overall. Denver is not an easy place to play. Whether it be the altitude, or the home fan base. winning at the Pepsi Center is no easy task to accomplish. Denver averages 102 points per game, and they should score at-will against a Thunder defense that is allowing 100.6 points per game on the road. Denver is +6 in rebounding margin at home this season, and in a game between two very good teams winning the battle of the boards will go a long way towards winning this game. This matchup fits into a system to play against road favorites like Oklahoma City when they have won over 75% of their games on the season and have covered the spread in four of their last five five games, when they are playing in a matchup against a team with a winning record. This system is 60-24 (71%) against the spread. It is a great way to identify teams that have been overvalued by the oddsmakers. |
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12-17-13 | New Mexico St +8.5 v. New Mexico | 67-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on New Mexico State +
There is a lot of value on the Aggies in this rivalry game against the Lobos. New Mexico has already been a big letdown this season, dropping games against UMass and Kansas, both by 16 points or more. Defense has been the issue for the Lobos, allowing 72 points per game. They will struggle to slow down their in-state rival in this matchup because the Aggies are averaging 75.2 points per game this season. The Lobos have seriously under-performed against the oddsmakers expectations this year. They are just 2-4 against the spread, yet they still find themselves laying a big margin in this matchup that has historically gone either way as far as the ATS winner is concerned. This is a rematch game for the Aggies, who lost by just nine points earlier this season in a game that was much closer than the final score. I expect New Mexico State to play another close game against the Lobos, and it is very unlikely they will have another 38.7 percent shooting performance in round two between these teams. The Aggies are a hot team right now, posting a 4-1 ATS record in their last five games. The Lobos on the other hand are 2-6 in their last eight games against non-conference opponents. New Mexico is also 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. The Lobos have played a soft schedule, and they are a serial under-performer against good teams. They have a 1-5 ATS record in their last six games against teams winning 60% of their games or more. |
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12-17-13 | UNC-Charlotte +10 v. Florida State | 62-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Charlotte +
The Florida State Seminoles are getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers. Charlotte is a very good team. They are 7-2 overall this season, and 6-1 against the spread. The 49ers are averaging an impressive 77.1 points per game, and they will easily be one of the best offensive teams Florida State has seen this season. The 49ers are a great rebounding team. They are +7 in rebounding margin, while the Seminoles are just +3 against an inferior schedule. Charlotte is also a great foul drawing team, and extra rebounds, combined with extra attempts from the free throw line gives them a very significant advantage in this game. If that wasn't enough, Charlotte has also done a better job of controlling the ball this season. They average 14 turnovers per game and are only improving in that area as the season progresses. They have had 14 or less turnovers in each of their last three games. The Seminoles on the other hand average 17 turnovers per game and they have forced less than 10 turnovers from their opponents in three of their last five games. The 49ers are 12-4 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons, and they are up against a Seminoles team that is just 2-10 ATS when playing their first game in the last seven days or more. You should play against favorites like Florida State when they are holding opponents to under 40 percent shooting and they are committing 14.5 to 17.5 turnovers per game when they are facing an opponent that is a good defensive team allowing just 40 percent to 42.5 percent from opponents, and they are a good ball handling team committing less than 14.5 turnovers per game. This system is 117-63 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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12-16-13 | Detroit Pistons v. Indiana Pacers -10 | 101-96 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -
The Pacers average margin of victory in home games is a whopping 13.2 points per games. They are off to an 11-0 start at home which is their best ever. To say things are going well for the Pacers would be a huge understatement. In the last three season's Indiana has dominated the series between these teams, posting a 7-1 straight up record and a 6-2 record against the spread. A big reason for the Pacers success is their stingy defense. They have held opponents to 89.5 points per game overall, but when playing at home that number drops to an outstanding 83.1 points allowed. Their big, physical style of play will give them matchup advantages all over the court, and facing a team that is 5-6 on the road like Detroit tells me this game should end in a blowout. The Pistons have struggled on the road against good three point shooting teams. They are 10-23 ATS in road games against teams making over 36 percent of their three point attempts. You should play against a team like Detroit when they are revenging a same season loss against an opponent, and they are coming off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system is 166-104 (62%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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12-15-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns +1 | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns +
The Warriors have not played well recently. They have lost three of their last five games, and failed to cover the spread in four of those five. They are below .500 on the road this season, and face a Suns team that is an impressive 7-3 in home games. Phoenix is scoring 105.6 points per game at home this season, while the Warriors are allowing 101 points per game on the road. I think there is a lot of value with the Suns whenever they are playing on their home court. We also have a favorable advantage with rest profiles. Golden State is playing their sixth game in the last 10 days, while the Suns will be playing in just their fourth during that same time-frame. Phoenix has been on fire recently, picking up wins in their last four consecutive games. They have continuously been undervalued by the oddsmakers, winning two of those four games straight up from the underdog position. The Suns are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record, and they are 16-5 ATS against Western Conference opponents. When playing on a single day of rest they have a 15-5 ATS record while Golden State has a 1-4 ATS record when they are on just one day of rest. In the last nine head-to-head meetings between these teams the home team is 7-2 ATS. |
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12-15-13 | Houston Rockets v. Sacramento Kings +6.5 | 91-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Sacramento Kings +
The Rockets have not played well on the road this year. They are allowing 109.7 points in those games, and they will playing in their third consecutive road game in the last four days tonight. The wear and tear of the schedule should catch up with them, and I expect Sacramento to play a very close game. I think there is a lot of value on Sacramento based on the way these teams are trending. In their last five games the Rockets have shot considerably lower than their overall average this season. They have been below 45 percent from the field in four of those five games, which is quite a bit less than their average of almost 48 percent on the year. The Kings have been shooting well, and their defense has played incredibly well. They have held two of their last four opponents under 36 percent shooting from the field. This matchup fits into a system to play on a team like Sacramento when they have scored over 100 points per game in four or more consecutive games in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing over 102 points per game. This system is 61-32 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons. I like Sacramento's chances to pull off an upset tonight at home, but we will take the points. |
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12-15-13 | Troy State v. Kansas State -14.5 | 43-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Kansas State -
The Wildcats have a significant advantage over Troy in this game, and I am surprised to see this line as low as it is. This should easily be a 15+ point victory for Kansas State when they face a Troy team that averages a mere 58.7 points per game on the road. The Wildcats defense has played extremely well this season, holding opponents to 61.2 points per game overall, and 59.2 points when playing at home. The Wildcats are +2 in rebounding margin, while the Trojans are -4 on the boards. Those extra rebounds should result in extra shot attempts for Kansas State, and against a Troy defense that has allowed 70 points per game on the road I think it gives Kansas State a very significant advantage. With the Wildcats outstanding defense, combined with the fact that they are playing against a poor defensive team on the road, I think they should easily walk away from this game with a big win. There is a very large talent gap between the Big 12 and Sun Belt conferences. The Trojans may be 4-3 on the year, but they have played just one team from a major conference, and they ended up losing that game by 15 points. The Wildcats are hot, having won four straight games. Troy hasn't played a game in over a week, and I think Kansas State's matchup last Tuesday keeps them looking fresh on the court. |
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12-15-13 | Manhattan -4.5 v. NC-Wilmington | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Manhattan -
The Jaspers are off to a great start this season posting a 6-2 overall record, including a 5-0 run on the road. They have been scoring at will against virtually every opponent they face, averaging 77 points per game. They face an NC-Wilmington team that has really struggled with their shot this season. The Seahawks have two games shooting under 30 percent from the field, and they have shot well under 45 percent in over half of their games this season. Manhattan has a knack for stepping up their level of play against winning teams. They are 14-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. When their opponent is only a marginal winning team (between 51% to 60%) the Jaspers tighten up to a 9-1 ATS record. The Seahawks are a poor pressure defense team, getting just six steals per game. I don't think NC-Wilmington has an answer for Manhattan's George Beamon. The senior guard/forward averages over 20 points per game for the Jaspers, and he is shooting over 90 percent from the free throw line. The Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games, and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Manhattan has posted a 23-7 ATS record in road games when playing against a team with a winning record at home. The Jaspers are also 13-5 ATS overall dating back to last season. This Manhattan team has been continuously undervalued by the oddsmakers, and we will continue to ride the Jaspers until they give us a reason to do otherwise. |
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12-15-13 | Syracuse -4.5 v. St John's | 68-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on Syracuse -
The Orange are a perfect 9-0 this year and have quickly earned a reputation as one of the best teams in the country. Their size and speed give them an advantage over any opponent on the court, and I just can't see St. Johns being able to keep this game close. The Red Storm have been horrible to back when coming off a win, posting a 1-8 ATS record. This game is going to come down to ball control, and Syracuse will have a huge advantage. The Orange average almost double the number of steals per game than the Red Storm. They are a completely different caliber team than St. Johns which is why I think they will easily pick up a win on the road today. Syracuse is +5 in overall rebounding margin, and +7 on the offensive glass. Their ability to outrebound St. Johns should afford them more shot attempts, and with the Orange shooting 49.1 percent from the field in road games that should make covering a 4.5 point line a very simple task. Syracuse has dominated the non-conference portion of their schedule. They are 14-2 ATS after two consecutive non-conference games. They are also 11-3 ATS after three straight games committing 14 turnovers or less. St Johns is coming off a strong defensive performance against Fordham, and I think that has earned them a little too much respect from the oddsmakers. The Red Storm are 2-12 ATS after a game allowing 60 points or less. |
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12-14-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz +7.5 | 100-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +
The Spurs are an old team, so rest profiles are a big factor in their games. San Antonio is playing in a back-t0-back situation when they are on the road against the Utah Jazz today. They were at home last night to take on Minnesota, and without a day of rest between games I am calling for this one to be much closer than the oddsmakers expect. San Antonio also had several players get more minutes than normal in their last game. The Jazz are also playing in a back-to-back situation, but they were on the road against Denver last night, and had the luxury of sleeping in their own bets prior to this game. It hasn |
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12-14-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Dallas Mavericks -12.5 | 93-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on Dallas Mavericks -
This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Mavericks have been incredibly good when playing at home this year. They have a 9-2 straight up record, and face a Milwaukee team that is just 3-8 on the road. Dallas averages 106.7 points per game at home this season, while Milwaukee has scored just 89.6 points per game overall. The rest profiles also favor the Mavericks in this game. Dallas is playing with two days off after their four game span on the road. Milwaukee played last night at home against Chicago in a losing effort and now they are forced to play on the road for the second leg of back-to-back games. The Bucks have lost three out of their last four, and I can |
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12-14-13 | Portland Trail Blazers -10 v. Philadelphia 76ers | 139-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Portland Blazers -
The Portland Blazers have been the biggest surprise team in the NBA this year, and it seems the oddsmakers have still not caught on to how talented this 19-4 team really is. Portland is 17-6 ATS, averaging 106.4 points per game. They have a great opportunity to build on that number against a 76ers team that is allowing 109.2 points per game. The 76ers are playing on back-to-back nights after getting crushed by Toronto on the road yesterday. The Trailblazers come into this matchup with a day of rest, and the better team that is more rested should easily win this game in a blowout. The 76ers are already a bad team defensively, and without fresh legs on the court this game should get out of hand quickly. This matchup fits into a system to play against home teams like Philadelphia when they are being outscored by three or more points per game, and they are coming off three consecutive games scoring 100 points or more. This system is 122-70 ATS over the last five seasons. You should also play on road favorites like Portland after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games. This system is 198-124 against the spread. |
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12-14-13 | Illinois-Chicago +11 v. SE Missouri St. | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on Illinois-Chicago +
There is a lot of value on Illinois-Chicago as a double-digit underdog in this matchup with SE Missouri State. I don |
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12-14-13 | New Mexico St +1 v. Drake | Top | 81-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on New Mexico State +
The Aggies have several key advantages in this game. They are an excellent rebounding team, pulling in 36 boards per game, with 11 on the offensive end of the court. Drake has struggled on the offensive glass, getting outrebound by three boards per game at home this season. Also, the Bulldogs have played several Division III schools to pad there statistics, and I think it is very unlikely they will be able to match their 51.1 percent shooting from the field against the Aggies. New Mexico State is great at drawing fouls. They average 31 free throw attempts per game, while Drake gets to the line and average of just 19 times per game. I think the Aggies will get several of the Bulldogs players in foul trouble early, and they should easily pull away down the stretch. I don |
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12-14-13 | Atlanta Hawks -1 v. New York Knicks | 106-111 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -
The Hawks demolished the Knicks last time they came to Madison Square Garden, and the Knicks have not done a lot to convince me the outcome will be any different this time around. These teams met back on November, 16th and the Knicks were blown out with a 90-110 final score. New York has had all kinds of shooting issues this season, averaging just 42.4 percent from the field in home games. Both of these teams are playing in a back-to-back situation, but it is Atlanta that is the more rested team. Prior to last night |
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12-14-13 | Kentucky +3.5 v. North Carolina | 77-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on Kentucky +
The Wildcats are clearly the better team, and I think they will head to North Carolina and pick up a win in their first true road game of the season. We will take the points since they are on the road, but Kentucky is clearly the more talented team. The Wildcats are young, and the first 10 games of the season were a great opportunity for a new group of players to get used to being on the same team. The Wildcats two losses are very respectable, losing by just four points against Michigan State and five points against Baylor. North Carolina has been wildly inconsistent this year. They have a loss to Belmont in a game they were a 14-point favorite. They also have suffered a four point loss against UAB. Much like the Wildcats, North Carolina is a young team. However, the Tar Heels did not benefit from signing four McDonald |
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12-14-13 | Tennessee +6.5 v. Wichita State | 61-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Tennessee +
The Wichita State Shockers have had a bad habit of getting off to a slow start, and against a hungry team like Tennessee that will be a big problem. The Shockers have been down at the half several times this season. Tennessee is one of the most improved teams in the SEC this season, and they are certainly talented enough to hang on to an early lead. Even if the Shockers are able to get off to a better start today, I don |
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12-14-13 | VCU -5.5 v. Northern Iowa | 68-77 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on VCU -
The VCU Rams have a great pressure defense. They force a lot of turnovers, and that will be a problem for a small school like UNI. The Panthers took in-state rival Iowa State to overtime last week, and I think that performance has bought them a little too much credit from the oddsmakers. The Panthers have always played their in-state rival in a close game, and I don |
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12-13-13 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -3.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
5* Heavy Hitter on Golden State Warriors -
The Golden State Warriors have an explosive offense, and against a horrible defensive team like the Rockets I think they are poised to put a big number on the scoreboard. Combine that with a defense that plays exceptionally well at home and the Warriors become a strong value play. Golden State is 7-2 straight up on home games, while the Rockets are just 5-5 on the road. The Warriors are averaging 104.8 points per game at home this season. They should score at-will on a Houston defense that has allowed 109.5 points per game on the road. This is also a revenge game for the Warriors. They were crushed when playing at Houston last week, and this time they have the benefit of playing host. I think they get their revenge with a strong first half, which is something that was missing the last time these teams met. In the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams the favorite has a 9-4 ATS record. The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Pacific division teams, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Golden State had yesterday off, so they should be well prepared for Houston. The Rockets on the other hand played last night in a losing effort against Portland. With the rest profiles favoring Golden State I think they get a big win in this game. |
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12-13-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Phoenix Suns -6 | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
3* Bailout Blowout on Phoenix Suns -
Phoenix has played well at home this season. They are 6-2 straight up, while the Kings are just 2-4 on the road. The Suns biggest advantage in this game is their defense. Sacramento has not done a lot of scoring in road games, and Phoenix is allowing just 99.9 points per game. The Suns also have the benefit of playing on two days of rest coming into this game, while Sacramento is playing their fifth game in the last eight days. The oddsmakers have undervalued the Suns all season and that has led to a 15-5 ATS record. On their home court with the better rest profile I think Phoenix picks up a big win in this game. This matchup fits into a system to play on home teams like Phoenix when they are playing in a double revenge situation having two straight losses against their opponent, when that opponent is coming off a loss of 15 points or more as a home favorite in their previous game. This system is 57-26 (69%) against the spread. |
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12-13-13 | Elon v. Colorado -13.5 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on Colorado -
Colorado picked up a huge win over Kansas in their last game and they now find themselves ranked in the top 25. The Buffaloes have a 9-1 record this season, and they are a perfect 7-0 on home games. Colorado has averaged 80.3 points per game at home this season, and Elon lacks the offensive talent to match that number today. The Buffaloes defense is allowing just 65.6 points per game. They are an outstanding rebounding team on both ends of the court. They average 11 offensive rebounds per game, and combining those second chance attempts with their 48.2 percent shooting from the field at home and this game should be a blowout. Elon is -8 in rebounding margin on the road, while the Buffaloes have a +11 rebounding margin in home games. Colorado is 11-3 ATS when playing only their second game in the last eight days. They are also 15-6 ATS after three or more consecutive wins. Elon on the other hand has posted a 1-11 ATS record in road games when they are coming off two straight games with nine or less offensive rebounds. Colorado is a very good team, and with home court advantage in the mile high altitude they should have no problem winning this game in a blowout. |
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12-13-13 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Toronto Raptors -8 | 100-108 | Push | 0 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Toronto Raptors -
The Raptors have several key advantages in this matchup with Philadelphia. Toronto has four new additions available for this game after making a blockbuster trade. They traded Gay, Gray and Acy to Sacramento in exchange for forwards Patrick Patterson, John Salmons and Chuck Hays, as well as getting guard Greivis Vasques. That will make them a very difficult team to defend against with the added depth. The 76ers defense has been absolutely abysmal on the road this season. They are allowing 111.1 points per game, which is a big reason they have a 1-9 record in those games. Toronto should score at-will in this game, and with the added depth from their new additions I think they get an immediate boost defensively. The Raptors should also be able to force a lot of turnovers in this game. The last time these teams met the 76ers had 20 turnovers. Their average of 18 per game ranks them among the worst in the league. This matchup fits into a system to play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Philadelphia when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 points or more, and they are coming off a game where they covered the spread but lost straight up as an underdog. This system is 96-53 (64%) over the last five seasons. The 76ers are also 4-14 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last two seasons. |
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12-12-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Brooklyn Nets +3 | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +
The Nets have several key advantages in tonight's game against the Clippers. Los Angeles is playing their sixth consecutive road game tonight, and they are playing in a back-to-back situation. Last night the Clippers were on the road against Boston. Six games in nine days with all the travel is a difficult obstacle to overcome. Brooklyn on the other hand is playing their second straight game from the comfort of their home court, and they have benefited from a night of rest between games. After a rough stretch to open the season, the Nets are finally playing as a team. They have quietly won three of their last five games, including two straight coming into this game. I think the Nets will put up some big offensive numbers against the Clippers. The first thing to go when players tire is their defense. Los Angeles is already allowing an average of 99.1 points per game, and playing on the road against several of Doc Rivers former all-stars will simply be too much to handle. The Brooklyn Nets are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games against Pacific division teams. In head-to-head meetings the Clippers have a 1-12 ATS record their last 13 games when playing in Brooklyn. The Clippers are playing in a letdown spot on the road today. They are 46-70 ATS in road games when coming off two or more consecutive wins. I think the Nets have a good chance to win this game straight up, but we will take the points against the Clippers. |
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12-12-13 | Maryland -3 v. Boston College | 88-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Maryland -
When you look at performances against common opponents the Terrapins have performed much better than Boston College. Maryland has a four-point win on a neutral court over Providence, while Boston College has a four-point loss against the Friars. Boston College comes into this game with three wins, but all three of those wins have been close games, and they were against very soft opponents. The biggest difference maker in this game will be defense. Boston College is allowing over 80 points per game at home this year. The Terrapins on the other hand have held opponents to just 65.3 points per game on the road. That 15-point difference is more than enough to make up for the extra three points the Eagles average offensively. I don't expect home court advantage to provide much of a boost. The Eagles have wins over Florida Atlantic and Sacred Heart at home, but both by slim margins. They also have a loss to Toledo in a game they were favored by 8.5 points. The Eagles are a very poor rebounding team. They are -5 in the rebounding margin, while the Terrapins are +7 in that category. The Terrapins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games, and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against ACC opponents. The Eagles seem like they have already thrown the towel in on the season. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall, and 1-4 ATS when coming off a straight-up loss. In head-to-head meetings between these teams the road team is 7-3 ATS. |
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12-11-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies +6 | 116-100 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on Memphis Grizzlies +
We are getting a lot of value on Memphis as a six point dog on their home court. The Thunder couldn't keep up with the Grizzlies in last season's Western Conference semifinals, and in these teams first meeting since the playoffs it is Memphis that once again gets the nod. The Grizzlies have been solid defensively this year, and I don't see a scenario where Oklahoma City will be able to score enough points to cover this spread. The Thunder have played poorly on defense, especially when on the road. They are allowing 100.7 points per game. The Grizzlies are coming off a confidence boosting win over Orlando, followed by a day off yesterday. For Oklahoma City this will be their fourth game in the last six days. The wear and tear of so many games in a short time span will catch up with the Thunder today. The Grizzlies are 33-19 ATS against teams that are scoring 99 points per game or more. They are also 28-16 ATS against teams making 46% or more of their shots. The reason for their success against these strong offensive teams is because their physical style of play on defense. That is something the Thunder are not used to facing, and it creates a significant matchup advantage for the Grizzlies. |
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12-11-13 | San Antonio Spurs -11 v. Milwaukee Bucks | 109-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on San Antonio -
This matchup has blowout written all over it, and I don't think the oddsmakers have given San Antonio enough credit. They are 16-4 this season, and facing a team that is 5-16. Milwaukee gets no home court advantage. They are 2-8 straight up and ATS in home games this year. San Antonio is scoring 103.3 points per game on the road while Milwaukee has averaged 87.9 points per game at home. The Spurs hit a bit of a losing streak recently, dropping three of their last six games. I blame that on a rigorous schedule. After facing Indiana the Spurs received a couple days of rest, and they got right back to their winning ways against Toronto last night. The Milwaukee Bucks are 13-34 ATS when coming off an upset win as an underdog over a division rival. They are also 15-28 ATS when coming off a game where they covered the spread. There is little-to-no consistency from the Bucks this year, and San Antonio should have no problem picking up a big double-digit win in this game. |
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12-11-13 | Los Angeles Clippers -6 v. Boston Celtics | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on LA Clippers -
This is an opportunity for Doc Rivers to get some revenge against his former team. This will be the first visit to TD Garden since Rivers coached his last game with the Celtics on May 3rd. He comes into this matchup with a team that is loaded with talent, and I expect the Clippers to be very well prepared for this game. The Clippers are averaging 104.1 points per game. They will play against a Celtics defense that has been somewhat soft on their home court. Boston is allowing 96.1 points per game overall, but when playing at home they allow slightly more points at 97.6 per game. The Clippers on the other hand step up their level of defensive play in road games. They have held opponents to 97.6 points per game, but should easily keep Boston under that number since the Celtics are a below average team offensively. The Clippers are also coming into this game with a day of rest, while Boston is playing on back-to-back nights. Boston has struggled against good teams, posting a 1-4 ATS record in their last five games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. The Clippers are 27-12 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, and that is a trend that should continue today. |
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12-11-13 | Orlando Magic v. Charlotte Bobcats -6 | 92-83 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -
The Magic have been horrible on the road. They have a 1-10 record, and the defense is giving up 106.5 points per game. Charlotte should have no problem putting up a big number against their soft defense. Charlotte averages just 92.2 points per game, but they dominate the boards and avoid turnovers so they should easily exceed that number in this game. Defensively the Bobcats have played well this year. They are holding opponents to 92.4 points per game. A big reason for their defensive success is because they are +4 in the rebounding margin. In road games the Magic are -8 in rebounding margin. Those rebounds and less turnovers will translate into more shots per game, and thus the Bobcats should score more points than normal against the Magic. This matchup fits into a system to play on a team like Charlotte when they have covered the spread in five of their last six games, and they have won 40% to 49% of their games on the season when facing a bad team that has won only 25% to 40% of their games. This system is 72-35 (67%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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12-11-13 | Penn State v. Duquesne +6.5 | 68-59 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Duquesne +
This looks like a trap game for Penn State backers. The Duquesne Dukes have a lot of scoring potential this year, and they should easily keep pace with the Nittany Lions on a neutral court. The Dukes are scoring an impressive 81.5 points per game, and with Penn State giving up 77.5 points per game on the road I think there is a lot of value on Duquesne plus the points. Another key factor swinging in Duquesne's photos is efficiency. The Dukes are a team that stays out of foul trouble, and they don't turn the ball over very often. Penn State is not a very turnover prone team, but they have had their issues with foul trouble. The Dukes have four players averaging double-digit scoring, with two of them put up a lot of points in the paint. I think they will challenge the Nittany Lion's big men, and get to the line early and often. The Dukes are 15-5 ATS in road games when coming off a home win where they scored 85 points or more. I don't think Duquesne will be intimidated by facing a Big Ten opponent. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Big Ten. In fact, playing a major school like Penn State should only add motivation for the Dukes. |
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12-10-13 | Dartmouth +17 v. Illinois | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on Dartmouth +
Illinois has not had a lot of success covering these over-inflated double-digit lines this year. They have lost three of their last four games against the spread. Tonight they face a very underrated Dartmouth team. The Big Green are averaging 77 points per game this season, and they should have no problem staying within the 17 points they are being spotted. Dartmouth is an outstanding shooting team. They are averaging 47.6% from the field, and even the Illini defense will struggle to slow them down. The Big Green will also have a rebounding advantage in this game. Dartmouth is averaging seven rebounds per game more than their opponents and Gabas Maldunas has been dominant on the boards, pulling in 9.7 rebounds per game. Illinois is 4-13 ATS in home games when coming off a game where they covered the spread. The Illini are also 9-19 ATS when coming off one or more consecutive overs. The Illini have played nine games this season, while Dartmouth comes into this matchup with fresher legs having played just six games. Three of Illinois last four games have been decided by a single-digit margin, and I don't think they will shoot over 61% like they did against Auburn. Take the points on Dartmouth because this one should be much closer than the oddsmakers expect. |
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12-10-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves +1 v. Detroit Pistons | 121-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Timberwolves +
The Detroit Pistons are a very poor free throw shooting team, and in a game that should be close game I like the Timberwolves to pick up the win. Minnesota is shooting 80% from the free throw line, while the Pistons are averaging just 67.7% from the line. The Timberwolves are the better scoring team in general, averaging 104.7 points per game. Meanwhile, the Pistons have been scoring 98.7 points per game on their home court. Neither of these teams has played well defensively, but again I have to give the edge to Minnesota. The Timberwolves are playing with two days of rest while Detroit is playing on a single day. Minnesota is a great rebounding team, pulling in an average of 55 boards per game. Winning the rebounding margin and shooting better from the free throw line will be the key to Minnesota picking up a win in the game the oddsmakers expect to be very close. This matchup fits into a system to play on a road team like Minnesota when the line is +3 to -3, they are coming off a home loss, and they are a well rested team playing just their third game or less in the last 10 days. This system is 34-10 (77%) against the spread. Also, the Pistons are 0-7-1 in their last eight games against Northwest division teams, and 6-20-1 in their last 27 games against Western Conference opponents. |
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12-09-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. Sacramento Kings +5 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Sacramento Kings +
The Kings got off to a slow start this season, but they have been playing a lot better recently. They have been within six points or less in five of their last six games, and I think covering a five point number against the Mavericks will be a task they can easily accomplish. Ben McLemore has been improving quickly, and with that improvement he has seen a rise in playing time. He hit a three-pointer that took the Kin=gs to overtime Saturday on the road against Utah. McLemore is a matchup nightmare for the Mavericks. Dallas is coming off a hard fought battle with Portland on Saturday, and that has them playing in a letdown spot today. The defense has not been good this season, especially when playing on the road. The Mavericks are allowing 102.2 points per game on the road, which is a big reason they are just 4-6 straight up in those games. The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous games. That angle matches up nicely with the fact that Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in their last six games when their opponent allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. The Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games played on a single day of rest. |
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12-09-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Charlotte Bobcats +6 | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats +
Golden State has not played well on the road this year, and there is a lot of value on Charlotte as an underdog in this game. The Bobcats are 5-6 at home, while the Warriors are 6-7 on the road. The Bobcats are playing on two days of rest after putting a 105-88 beat down on the 76ers last Friday. That was a confidence boosting win for a team that is just two games below .500 on the season. The Bobcats defense gives them a big advantage over Golden State. The Warriors have been a streaky shooting team, and against a stingy defense like Charlotte's I think they will struggle to get points on the board. The Bobcats are holding opponents to a mere 91.5 points per game this season, and that has come against opponents whose offensive average is 97.7 points per game. The Warriors have lacked consistency this year. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. They face a Bobcats team that is 4-0 ATS in their last four games. With Charlotte having an extra day of rest over their opponent, home court advantage, and the better defense they should be able to cover this six-point line. |
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12-08-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on OKC Thunder -
Oklahoma City is a tough team to beat when they are playing on their home court. The Thunder are a perfect 9-0 at home, and there is a lot of value here since they are such a small favorite against the Pacers. Oklahoma City is averaging 105.7 points per game at home, while the defense is allowing a mere 97.1 points per game. This is Indiana's fifth consecutive road game, and it will be the second time they have played on back-to-back nights during that stretch. The last time the Pacers played on back-to-back nights on the road they were handed a loss by the Portland Trailblazers. The Thunder on the other hand are coming into this game with a full day of rest which gives them even more value. The Thunder are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams winning over 60% of their games on the road. In head-to-head meetings between these teams Oklahoma City has a very clear edge. In the last five games the Pacers have a 1-4 ATS record against the Thunder. Indiana's tough five-game road stretch will catch up with them today, so lay the points on the Thunder. |
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12-08-13 | Orlando Magic +12.5 v. Houston Rockets | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Orlando +
The Rockets are getting too much respect from the oddsmakers tonight. Orlando has had no problem scoring points on the road. They are averaging 99.7 points per game in their nine road games this season, and they face a Rockets defense that has allowed an average of 101.8 points per game. Houston has lost two of their last three games both straight up and against the spread, so they are not coming into this game with a lot of momentum. Jameer Nelson is back in the lineup for Orlando. In his first game back from being out with a foot injury Nelson added 13 points and nine assists. Against the Rockets soft defense Nelson should have no problems finding an open man. Arron Affalo is coming off a 20 point performance. The Rockets are playing through several injuries tonight. Harden has an undisclosed injury, and while he is expected to play, I don't expect him to be at 100 percent. This matchup fits into a system to play against favorites of 10 points or more like Houston after allowing 85 points or less in their previous game. This system has been very profitable over the long term, posting a 406-294 (58%) ATS record. I think the Magic play with a little extra motivation tonight since they will be up against Dwight Howard. Howard has bashed the Magic since leaving the team for the Lakers. Orlando has taken five of the last seven meetings between these teams, so this should be a close game. |
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12-08-13 | Rhode Island +4 v. Detroit | 68-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on Rhode Island +
Rhode Island is the better team, and I am not buying into any home court advantage for a small school like Detroit. The Titans are a poor team defensively, allowing an average of 74.7 points per game. They have played a fairly weak schedule, so it says a lot that they are allowing more points than their opponents offensive average. Detroit's scoring average is also very misleading thanks to some cupcake games at home where they were able to run up the score. The Rams have a definite size advantage in this game. They are an excellent rebounding team, and they do a great job of avoiding turnovers. Rhode Island is outrebounding opponents by five boards per game on average. They have played a much stronger schedule than the Titans, facing the likes of Arizona and Providence. The Rams are not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers in this game, and their is a lot of value on them as an underdog against a much weaker team. Detroit is 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games, so clearly home court has not been an advantage for the Titans in a long time. The Titans are coming off an embarrassing road loss against Toledo. They are 5-15 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog. The Rams on the other hand are 10-2 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games. |
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12-08-13 | Oklahoma v. George Mason +6 | 81-66 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on George Mason +
Oklahoma might be the most overrated team in the country right now. They have a 7-1 record, but their most impressive win came by a single point in a neutral court battle with Seton Hall. They lost to Michigan State, and have yet to play another team worth mentioning. The Sooners defense has been horrible when they are playing away from home. They have allowed an average of 81.7 points in those games. George Mason is playing in a great spot to pull off an upset against the Sooners. We will take the points, but it is hard not to like the Patriots chances with their outstanding defense. They have held opponents to just 64 points per game this season. The Patriots have out rebound opponents by four per game, while the Sooners are being out rebound by one board per game against a very soft schedule. George Mason is 19-7 ATS when coming off a straight up loss. The Patriots are also 35-18 ATS in road games after two straight games giving up nine or less offensive rebounds. Oklahoma on the other hand is 7-18 ATS in road games after three straight wins by 10 points or more. Oklahoma's recent win streak over Little Rock, Texas A&M CC and Mercer has earned them too much respect from the oddsmakers. Take the points because this should be a very close game. |
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12-07-13 | Brooklyn Nets -3 v. Milwaukee Bucks | 90-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Brooklyn Nets -
There is no denying the amount of talent on this Brooklyn Nets team. They are off to a slow start this season, but should get a much needed win tonight over one of the NBA's worst teams. Milwaukee is 4-15 on the season, and they have a mere two wins on their home court. Brooklyn may not be lighting up the scoreboard on a nightly basis, but they should have no problem outpacing a Bucks team that averages just 88.6 points per game at home. The Nets are scoring 94.8 points per game on the road, and they have the benefit of facing a soft Bucks defense that is allowing 99.9 points per game this year. Brooklyn is also playing with a day of rest while Milwaukee is playing on back-to-back nights. The Nets have responded well to a bad loss. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Milwaukee is 16-35 ATS dating back to last season against Eastern Conference opponents. They are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when playing without a day of rest. |
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12-07-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies | 108-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Memphis Grizzlies
The Golden State Warriors have not played well on the road this season. They have a 5-6 record in their 11 road games, with the defense allowing an average of 101.1 points per game. They have been plagued by turnover issues, and that gives the Memphis Grizzlies a significant matchup advantage on their home court. The Grizzlies defense has been stingy this year. They are holding opponents to just 95.9 points per game. What makes that number so impressive is the fact that their opponents scoring average has been 100.7 points per game on the season. The Grizzlies are also a very good ball control team. They average just 14 turnovers per game. Golden State is playing in a back-to-back situation. Last night they were on the road against Houston, and then had to catch a red-eye to get to Memphis for today's game. The Warriors are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against Western Conference opponents. The Grizzlies on the other hand have posted a 10-1-1 ATS record in their last 12 games against the Pacific division. |
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12-07-13 | Kansas v. Colorado | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Colorado
The Jayhawks have played one of the most difficult schedules in college basketball to open the season, and it won't get any easier today when they are in the high altitude in Boulder, Colorado. The Buffaloes are off to an impressive 8-1 start this season. They have yet to lose a game at home, and there should be plenty of motivation from the home crowd with a ranked opponent in town. Colorado is averaging 81.2 points per game at home, but the strength of this Buffaloes team has been their defense. They are holding opponents to a mere 64.9 points. Expect Kansas to struggle today since they area very young team that has not been playing well recently. They lost to Villanova, and almost blew their last game against UTEP. They have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, and they are facing a Buffaloes team that has covered the spread in three of their last four games. Kansas lives and dies by their ability to out rebound their opponents. That is a battle they will lose today against Colorado. The Buffaloes are pulling in 40 rebounds per game, and when playing at home their opponents have averaged just 27 rebounds against them. Colorado is 11-1 ATS against teams that are outrebounding opponents by four or more per game. They are also 5-2 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams. |
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12-07-13 | Clemson v. Arkansas -5 | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Arkansas -
The Arkansas Razorbacks are off to a phenomenal 5-2 start this season. They have a big win over Minnesota on a neutral court, and they have won in blowout fashion in their four home games this season. Clemson is coming into this game overrated thanks to a 7-1 record. The only good team the Tigers have faced was also their only loss of the season. Clemson lost by six-points on a neutral court against UMass. I think home court advantage at a big school like Arkansas will give them a very significant advantage in this game. The Razorbacks are averaging 93.7 points per game. They have earned that average by playing a very strong schedule to start the season. Along with their game against Minnesota, the Razorbacks have faced a very good Cal Bears team, and the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Clemson's soft schedule has made there defense look better than it is, and I don't see a scenario where they can continue to allow under 60 points to their opponent in this game. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record. When coming off three of more consecutive home games, the Tigers have a 2-6 ATS record on the road. The Razorbacks on the other hand have posted a 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 home games against a team with a winning record, and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. |