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Jimmy Boyd Basketball Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-21-14 | Mercer v. Duke -12.5 | 78-71 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
3* Blowout on Duke -
This matchup has blowout written all over it. Mercer's stat sheet is very inflated thanks to a soft schedule. The Bears only faced two teams playing in the NCAA Tournament all season, both losses, and four of Mercer's eight losses came by a double-digit margin. Mercer's opponents had a defensive scoring average of 74.4 points per game, so the fact that Mercer is scoring 79.3 points per game is a bit misleading. Duke comes into this matchup averaging 78.6 points per game. That is a lot more meaningful than Mercer's scoring average since Duke's opponents have surrendered an average of just 66.1 points per game on the season. The Blue Devils also faced 13 teams playing in the NCAA Tournament, and they played eight games against ranked opponents. Facing a team like Mercer is going to feel like playing a practice squad, especially since Duke is known for reserving its best basketball for when it counts the most. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Duke. You should play on neutral court teams as a favorite after two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a game committing eight or less turnovers. Mercer may be a good ball control team when facing Atlantic Sun opponents, but that won't be the case against one of the ACC's top teams. This system has a 96-51 (65%) record against the spread. |
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03-20-14 | Western Michigan v. Syracuse -12.5 | Top | 53-77 | Win | 100 | 50 h 58 m | Show |
5* Opening Round Game of the Year on Syracuse -
There is no denying the fact that Syracuse had a poor finish to the regular season, but they also played a very tough stretch of schedule to finish the year. This is still the same team that opened the season with a perfect 25-0 record. It is also worth noting that even though Syracuse lost five of its final seven games, four of those seven games were played on the road and three of the five losses came by four points or less. Western Michigan posted a respectable 23-9 record this season, but coming out of the MAC that does not mean a lot. They faced one ranked team all season, then No. 24 Missouri, and the Tigers are not even playing in the NCAA Tournament this season. I think the Broncos are severely outmatched against a top tier team like the Orange, and Syracuse runs the zone defense better than any team in the country so expect a lot of turnovers and little scoring from Western Michigan. Western Michigan relies heavily on its ability to get to the free throw line to win games. Syracuse is a perfect 8-0 ATS against teams attempting 25 or more three throws per game. The reason they have been so successful in these situations is because the Orange are a smart basketball team that avoids getting into foul trouble. Syracuse is also 8-2 ATS when playing only their second game in the last eight days this season. |
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03-20-14 | American v. Wisconsin -13.5 | 35-75 | Win | 100 | 48 h 47 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Wisconsin -
The Badgers might be one of the most underrated teams in the tournament this season. This is a team that opened the season winning 16 consecutive games and ranked as high as No. 3 in the country. Wisconsin may have been a little over confident coming into Big 10 play, but they finished the year with a strong showing, and should make easy work of No. 15 seeded American. I don't think playing in the Patriot league has the American Eagles prepared for a matchup against a tough Big Ten team like Wisconsin. The Eagles lost seven of their first 10 games during non-conference play this season. The Eagles could be in for a long day facing this Badger's defense. They average a mere 63.9 points per game this season, and Wisconsin has surrendered 64.5 points per game against teams with a scoring average over 71 points per game. The Badgers have an outstanding perimeter defense. They have posted an 11-3 ATS record in road or neutral court games when facing teams that make 37 percent or more of their three point attempts. The fact that American relies so heavily on their ability to successfully shoot three pointers gives Wisconsin a huge matchup advantage. The Badgers are also 11-3 ATS against teams averaging 33 or less rebounds per game and American comes into this matchup pulling in a mere 30 rebounds per game with just six coming on the offensive glass. |
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03-20-14 | Dayton v. Ohio State -6 | 60-59 | Loss | -106 | 47 h 22 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Ohio State -
Ohio State has the nation's 12th ranked scoring defense. The Buckeyes have surrendered a mere 59.8 points per game, and they should make easy work of the Flyers in this game. Dayton has been mediocre on offense averaging 73.4 points per game, but that has come against opponents allowing 10 points per game more than what Ohio State is surrendering this year. When you look at strength of schedule that disparity becomes even more obvious. The Buckeyes opened the season with a perfect 15-0 record. In a conference as talented as the Big 10 it is not surprising to see some inconsistency throughout conference play. What we do know is Dayton is a six loss team in the inferior Atlantic 10 conference, and the Flyers add an additional four losses during non-conference play. Dayton suffered double-digit blowout losses against VCU, Rhode Island and Saint Joseph's this year, and Ohio State will be adding its name to that list. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Buckeyes. You should play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Ohio State when they are from a BCS conference and coming off a loss to a conference opponent and they are facing a team from a second tier conference like Dayton. This system is 61-29 (68%) against the spread. The Atlantic 10 is not as good as all the hype coming into the tournament so Ohio State should dominate this game. |
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03-19-14 | Fresno State v. UTEP -4.5 | 61-56 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 9 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on UTEP -
The Miners might be the most underrated team in the CBI tournament. They posted a 23-10 overall record, and half of those losses came by five points or less. UTEP managed to stick to within four points on a neutral court against then No. 2 in the country, Kansas, and I expect to see them make easy work of Fresno State today. Fresno State is a very bad road team. They posted a 6-11 record in road games this season. A big reason for their complete lack of success away from home can be credited to a defense that surrendered 74.1 points per game. Meanwhile, the Miners come into this matchup with one of the best defenses in the tournament, holding opponents to a mere 63.4 points per game. UTEP is 15-5 ATS against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. They are also 24-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. Over the last three seasons the Miners have posted a 21-10 ATS record in non-conference games. Coming out of C-USA has the Miners underrated, and they should make easy work of Fresno State in this game. |
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03-19-14 | Toronto Raptors v. New Orleans Pelicans | 107-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans -
The Pelicans have been playing well recently, while Toronto seems to be headed in the opposite direction. Now New Orleans will play host to the Raptors after two days of rest while Toronto is playing in a back-to-back situation. The Raptors were on the road last night against Atlanta. Playing in a back-to-back situation is always tough, but back to back road games gives New Orleans a big advantage. The Pelicans offense is on fire right now. Over their last five games they are averaging an impressive 107 points per game. They have the luxury of facing a Raptors squad that has struggled on the road this year averaging just 99 points per game. Toronto's defense is playing horribly right now. They have surrendered 119.5 points per game over the last two games and things will not get any easier tonight when they are playing without rest against this red hot Pelicans offense. You should play against teams averaging 98 to 102 points per game like Toronto after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games and they are facing a team allowing 102 points per game or more. This system has a 77-40 (66%) record against the spread. It is also worth noting that New Orleans is 114-83 against the spread in home games when revenging a same season loss. |
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03-19-14 | Princeton -7 v. Tulane | Top | 56-55 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
5* CBI Game of the Year on Princeton -
The Princeton Tigers are clearly the better team in this matchup. They finished the season riding a five game win streak, and posted a 20-8 overall record. Some might argue the Ivy league is soft, but even during non-conference play the Tigers put on a dominating 12-2 showing. They suffered a mere three point loss on the road against Butler, and held to within six points on the road against Harvard, a team now playing in the NCAA Tournament. The Tulane Green Wave finished the regular season headed in the opposite direction. They lost three of their last four games, and cannot be excited about playing in the CBI. The Green Wave had a wealth of issues on the offensive end of the court this year. Their 63.9 points per game ranks them 317th in the country for scoring. They are also 237th in rebounds per game, 348th in assists per game and 309th in shooting percentage from the field. The Princeton Tigers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games against conference USA opponents. They are 8-3 ATS in non-conference games. Tulane meanwhile is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games against teams winning 60 percent or more of their games. The Green Wave are severely outmatched in this game and the Tigers should have no problem picking up an easy win in their CBI opener. **I'd play this as a 5* up to -9 and 4* up to -10.** |
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03-18-14 | Utah -1 v. St Mary's CA | 58-70 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
3* Bailout Blowout on Utah -
The difficult Pac-12 schedule played by Utah has made this matchup look a little more even than it is. The Utes have a 21-11 overall record, but they faced five ranked opponents this season. Saint Mary's on the other hand did not face a single ranked opponent all season. The Utes are one of the country's best shooting teams. In fact, they ranked 12th in the nation in field goal percentage, making 48.9 percent of their attempts. Saint Mary's suffered bad losses to both BYU and Gonzaga, two teams that are very comparable to the Utes. I think the Gaels are severely outmatched from a talent perspective, and home court advantage will not be enough to swing the outcome of this game in their favor. Utah is 15-5 ATS against poor pressure defenses that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. They are also 21-10 ATS against teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or more games in the season. Saint Mary's is 2-11 ATS when playing a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. All signs point to a Utah blowout tonight. |
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03-18-14 | Belmont v. Wisc-Green Bay -6 | 80-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Green Bay -
After finishing first in the Ohio Valley East, Belmont had to believe they would be making a return to the NCAA Tournament. I think playing in the NIT has to be a bigger disappointment for Belmont than it is for Green Bay, and that could cause some motivation issues for this game. Green Bay actually posted a better record than Belmont on the year with just six losses. Four of those six losses came against teams playing in the NCAA Tournament. Green Bay's defense gives them a huge advantage in this matchup. They are playing on their home court where they allow a mere 60.2 points per game. Meanwhile, Belmont has surrendered an average of 75.8 points per game on the road. On the offensive end of the court the Phoenix should be fine. They average 74.6 points per game, and with the defense shutting Belmont down they should easily score enough points to cover this spread. Belmont has struggled in tournament games in recent years. In fact, the Bruins are 4-14 ATS in all tournament games over the last three seasons. Green Bay is 20-6 ATS when coming off an upset loss to a conference rival when they are playing as a home favorite. The Phoenix are the better team, and it will show on the court tonight. |
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03-18-14 | Toronto Raptors -2.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | 113-118 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Toronto Raptors -
The Raptors are an easy call in this matchup with Atlanta. The Hawks are playing in a tough spot today after picking up a road win over Charlotte last night. It was a defensive battle that had to take its toll on Atlanta, and now they are forced to play in the second half of a back-to-back situation against a hungry team like the Raptors. Toronto is coming into this game with a day of rest. The Raptors have won 11 of their last 15 games, and they are playing like a team on a mission. Over their last five games they have averaged 104.2 points per game. They should have no problem scoring on an Atlanta defense that has surrendered 102.1 points per game on the season. You should play against home dogs like Atlanta when they are trying to revenge a blowout loss of 20 points or more and their opponent is coming off an upset loss as a favorite. This system is 102-61 (63%) against the spread. You should also play against home teams when the line is three points or less and they are off a road win and trying to revenge a loss. This system has a 92-50 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-18-14 | Mount Saint Mary's v. Albany NY -2.5 | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on Albany -
Albany has a huge advantage for this play-in game against Mount Saint Mary's. The Great Danes have been an outstanding team defensively, holding opponents to a mere 63.8 points per game. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers have surrendered an average of 78 points per game this season. When playing on the road Mount Saint Mary's is allowing an astonishing 81.6 points per game. Albany will also have a big rebounding advantage in this game. The Great Danes average 35 rebounds per game, with a +3 figure in rebounding margin. The Mountaineers on the other hand are -4 in rebounding margin. It is also worth noting that Mount Saint Mary's averages just seven offensive rebounds per game when playing away from home. Without second chance shot attempts from a strong showing on the offensive glass the Mountaineers will be in serious trouble today. Albany has been a spread covering machine against poor pressure defenses. They are 8-1 ATS against teams forcing less than 14 turnovers per game. The Great Danes are also 6-0 ATS against poor ball movement teams that average less than 12 assists per game. The Mountaineers have two players that do the majority of the team's scoring, and that makes them easy to defend. |
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03-17-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Denver Nuggets +4.5 | 100-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +
We will take the points, but I think Denver is the team that ends the Clippers recent win streak. Los Angeles was at home last night hosting Cleveland, and now they have to play on back-to-back nights by traveling to Denver to face the Nuggets in mile high altitude. The Nuggets have been playing well recently, winning two of their last three games all on the road. Now they get a day of rest and will be playing from the comfort of their home court. The Clippers recent run can be credited to tough defensive play. Even good defensive teams struggle when playing in the mile high altitude of Denver, so I think the Nuggets are poised to put a big number on the scoreboard. The team averages 104.5 points per game at home this season. The Nuggets met the Clippers in early February and picked up a win on their home court. I expect another close game between the teams today, with Denver having a chance to win outright in the end. You should play on home teams like Denver when they average 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers and they are facing an average pressure defense forcing 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers after 42 or more games on the season. This system is 119-82 (59%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play on teams averaging 103 points per game or more after training in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have undervalued and it has resulted in a 143-78 (65%) record against the spread. |
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03-17-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Brooklyn Nets -4 | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
4* NBA Heavy Hitter of the Week on Brooklyn Nets -
The Suns have won two straight, but they won't make it a third when they face the Brooklyn Nets tonight. Brooklyn has won seven of its last nine games and they are trying to close the gap on Washington and maintain a lead over Charlotte in the Eastern Conference standings. The Nets have a 20-11 home record to protect, and that includes a very profitable 18-13 record against the spread in those games. The Phoenix Suns are playing in a back-to-back situation after facing Toronto on the road last night. The Suns will be playing in their third consecutive road game, and their fifth road game in their last six contests tonight. This is a brutal stretch of schedule that will catch up with the Suns against an underrated Nets team. You should play against underdogs like Phoenix when they are revenging a home loss against their opponent, and that opponent is coming off a road loss. This system is 197-133 (60%) over the last five seasons. When that underdog is a road underdog the system tightens up to 167-108 (61%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-17-14 | Atlanta Hawks +3 v. Charlotte Bobcats | 97-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Atlanta Hawks +
The Atlanta Hawks suffered a poor stretch of games in February and early March, but they have bounced back strong winning three consecutive games coming into this matchup. Charlotte has a 2.5 game lead on Atlanta in the Eastern Conference standings, so I like the Hawks to play with plenty of motivation tonight. Charlotte is playing in a very tough spot. They were on the road yesterday against Milwaukee, and now the Bobcats have to play a very talented Atlanta team in the second half of a back-to-back. The Hawks have been on fire recently, averaging 103.2 points per game over their last five games. Against division opponents they are averaging 104.8 points per game. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are averaging a mere 96.7 points per game against the division while surrendering 102 points per game. You should play against home teams like Charlotte when they are trying to revenge a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are playing on back-to-back days. This system has a 101-51 (66%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play against home teams with a line of three points or less when they are off a road win and revenging a loss to their opponent. This system is 91-50 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-16-14 | Charlotte Bobcats -6 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference No Doubt Rout of the Month on Bobcats -
The Bobcats are up against one of the league's worst teams tonight, and they should have no problem covering a single-digit number against them. Charlotte has won three straight coming into this matchup, and five of their last six. Meanwhile, the Bucks have lost six of their last seven games, and they are showing no signs of life as the regular season unwinds. Not only are the Bucks on a bad losing streak, they are also playing in a very tough back-to-back situation. Milwaukee was just on the road yesterday against New York, and now they have to immediately travel home to play host to the Bobcats. Playing in a back-to-back situation is tough on any team, but I expect it to really take its toll on this Bucks team that looks like they have thrown in the towel on their season. You should play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Milwaukee when they are playing in a double revenge situation having lost their last two games against their opponent, and they are coming into the matchup off of two or more consecutive road losses. This system identifies favorites that are being undervalued. It has resulted in a 117-67 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-16-14 | Duke v. Virginia +1.5 | 63-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on Virginia +
When these teams met during the regular season the Cavaliers did not play a great game and still managed to stick to within four points against the Blue Devils. Duke may have been lucky to squeak by with a win in that game on their home court, but I do not expect that to be the case today. In this matchup the Cavaliers will face Duke on a neutral court, and they are coming into this game as one of the hottest teams in college basketball. Virginia has the nation's No. 1 ranked scoring defense. They have held opponents to a mere 55.1 points per game this season, and they showed us during the regular season that slowing the Blue Devils down will not be something they have a problem with. Virginia is going to need a strong offensive performance to win this game, and I think there is a good chance they get it. The Blue Devils have given up 68.6 points per game when playing away from home this season and if Virginia even comes close to that number they will win this game. The Cavaliers are 9-0 against the spread when facing a team that is outscoring opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or more games on the season. They are also 8-1 against the spread when facing a team that averages less than 12 turnovers after 15 or more games. While Duke may have a storied history, the Blue Devils have actually been a good team to fade late in the year. Since 1997 the Blue Devils have posted a 47-74 ATS record in March games. I think the oddsmakers have favored the wrong team today and Virginia picks up a win in the ACC Championship. |
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03-15-14 | Brooklyn Nets -3 v. Washington Wizards | 94-101 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Brooklyn Nets -
After picking up a road win over Miami in their last outing, the Brooklyn Nets are the hottest team in the NBA right now. They have won seven of their last eight games, and have a matching 7-1 ATS record during that stretch. The Nets will face a Wizards team that is starting to cool off after having lost two of their last three games. The Wizards are not a team that gets a lot of benefit from home court advantage. Statistically they they do not improve on either end of the court, and they have a 16-16 record at home this season. They are playing in a very touch spot after facing the Magic on the road last night, while Brooklyn is coming into this matchup with two full days of rest. The Nets are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games against Southeast Division opponents. The Wizards on the other hand are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams from the Eastern Conference. Washington is also 2-10 ATS at home against a team that has a losing record on the road. I think the fact that Brooklyn struggled on the road early in the season has only created value on them today, and the Nets pick up a dominating win over the Wizards in this matchup. |
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03-15-14 | Toledo -2.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 77-98 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
5* MAC Tournament Game of the Year on Toledo -
The Toledo Rockets are clearly the better team, and this line does not do them justice. Toledo averages 79.9 points per game this season, and when playing on the road or a neutral court their offensive production has barely slowed down still averaging 77.6 points per game. They are up against a Western Michigan team that is averaging a mere 67.4 points per game on the road. These teams split there regular season games, but it is Toledo that won in the most recent meeting. The Rockets picked up an 11 point win just over two weeks ago, and a change to a neutral court will not be enough for the Broncos to narrow their margin of loss by enough points to cover this spread. Western Michigan is also coming off an overtime time in their last outing. Playing in a back-to-back is hard enough for college teams, but when the first half of that back-to-back went to overtime I just don't see how the Broncos will be able to physically keep pace with the Rockets. Toledo is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven neutral court games. They are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams that have won 60 percent or more of their games on the season. Toledo has been the better ball control team this season averaging just 10 turnovers per game to 14 turnovers per game from the Broncos. Toledo has covered three of their lat four games against the spread, and I like that trend to continue today. |
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03-15-14 | New Mexico v. San Diego State -1.5 | 64-58 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on San Diego State -
These teams met twice during the regular season and split their games. It is San Diego State that won the most recent matchup just one week ago today. I don't see a lot of reason to expect a different outcome in today's game. The Aztecs are the better team, and it will show on the court today. While they do not get a lot of attention or credit, it is worth noting that San Diego State has the second ranked scoring defense in the country. The Aztecs have surrendered a mere 56.6 points per game this season. That has come against a schedule that has been anything but easy. San Diego State has faced five teams that were ranked at the time of play, and they have a 4-1 record in those games. This matchup fits into a system to play against teams like New Mexico that average 74 to 78 points per game when they are facing an excellent defense allowing 63 points per game or less on a neutral court and they lead their last three games by five or more points at the half. This matchup identifies teams that are overvalued because of their ability to get off to a quick start. This system has a 64-30 (68%) ATS record. The better team will prevail in the second half, and that team is San Diego State. |
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03-15-14 | George Washington v. VCU -4 | 55-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on VCU -
The Rams quickly fell out of the top 25 ranking early in the season, but have since earned their way back. I think a lot of people gave up on VCU a little prematurely, and it seems as though the oddsmakers have still not not caught on to just how talented the Rams are this season. VCU has now won five consecutive games coming into this matchup with George Washington, and they were able to get key players a little extra rest time thanks to a dominating win over Richmond in their A-10 Tournament opener. George Washington picked up a win at home against the Rams back in January, but VCU responded by picking up a 17 point win when the teams met again in February. On a neutral court the advantage has to be with VCU. The team forces an average of 19 turnovers per game, and it is that defense that makes them a dangerous team against anyone in the country. I think George Washington's win early in the season was an anomaly. The Rams are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in head-to-head history with the Colonials. VCU is 8-2 ATS when coming off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival this season. They are also 11-3 ATS after three consecutive conference games. That is a very telling statistic about the disparity in talent between the Rams and the remainder of the Atlantic 10 conference. VCU should pick up an easy win in this semifinal matchup over Georgia Washington. |
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03-15-14 | Arkansas State v. Georgia State -7.5 | 45-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
4* Sun Belt Tournament Game of the Year on Georgia State -
Arkansas State has to be exhausted after their four overtime matchup with Arkansas-Little Rock last night. Now they are tasked with playing a well rested Georgia State team. The Panthers are playing with six days of rest coming into this game. Georgia State is also the hottest team in the conference. They have posted a 17-1 record in conference play this season. The first thing to go for a tired team is usually its defense. Effort on the defensive end of the court has been an issue for the Red Wolves even when they are not coming off a quadruple overtime game. Arkansas State has surrendered an average of 78.6 points per game when playing away from home this season, and now they are up against a Georgia State offense that has averaged 78.1 points per game on the season. Arkansas State is a good team to fade when facing a good ball handling team. They are 27-45 ATS against teams committing 14 or less turnovers after 15 or more games in the season. Georgia State is 8-0 ATS in road or neutral court games when playing a team with a winning record after 15 or more games on the season. The Red Wolves will not be able to keep this game close after their grueling game last night so I have Georgia State winning this game in a blowout. |
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03-15-14 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia -3 | 48-51 | Push | 0 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Virginia -
When these teams met during the regular season the Cavaliers held Pitt to a mere 45 points. That game was played on Pittsburgh's home court, so I can only imagine what Virginia will be able to accomplish in this neutral court rematch. Virginia is the hottest team in college basketball right now, and I expect the Panthers to struggle against the nation's No. 1 ranked scoring defense. The Cavaliers have surrendered a mere 55.4 points per game this season. While they have been spectacular on defense, the team is also playing well offensively. Their 66.2 points per game may not rank among the best in basketball, but the schedule has been anything but easy with opponents averaging just 66.7 points surrendered. This will be Pittsburgh's third game in three days and I think the wear and tear of consecutive back-to-back games will be too much for the Panthers to handle against a top tier team like Virginia. The oddsmakers have undervalued Virginia for most of the season. The Cavaliers have a respectable 18-10 record against the spread. They are 9-0 ATS against teams outscoring opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or more games, and they are 8-0 ATS against teams making over 45 percent of their shot attempts after 15 or more games. Pitt has not performed well in games that are expected to be defensive battles. The Panthers are 6-15 ATS when the total opens between 120 to 129.5 points over the last two seasons. |
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03-14-14 | Ole Miss v. Georgia | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
5* Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Georgia -
Ole Miss had to use a lot of energy rallying from an early 13-point deficit to beat in-state rival Mississippi State. I don't see the Rebels and those tired legs being able to hang with a talented and underrated Georgia team tonight. The Bulldogs are fresh off a full 5 days rest and will be out to make a statement. Georgia tied for 2nd in the SEC with a 12-6 record, yet are not even being talked about as an NCAA Tournament team. While Ole Miss comes in off back-to-back wins, they have not been playing all that great of late. They are just 5-7 since the start of February and four of those five losses came against teams who finished the year with a losing record. Georgia on the other hand is playing some of their best basketball. The Bulldogs are 8-2 over their last 10 games with the only two losses coming on the road against Tennessee and Arkansas. Georgia has been a covering machine. The Bulldogs are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 conference games and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games overall. Ole Miss is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record. |
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03-14-14 | Northwestern v. Michigan State -13 | Top | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
5* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan State -
Northwestern is coming off a surprising win over Iowa in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament, but the magic stops here. The Wildcats put everything they had on the line in that game and I just don't see them having enough left in the tank to keep it close against a Michigan State team that is back to full strength and ready to prove they are the best team in the Big 10. Northwestern basically played just six players last night against the Hawkeyes, as Nikola Cerina played just 2 minutes. Even without their full lineup, Michigan State was able to beat the Wildcats rather easily in both regular season meetings. The Spartans won by 14-points at Northwestern and 15-points at home. With a healthy lineup and tired legs for the Wildcats, I could see this turning into a 20+ point blowout rather quickly. While Michigan State lost their final game of the regular season 67-69 at Ohio State, that sets up a very favorable system for the Spartans. Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who have a winning record, are off a road cover where they lost outright and playing a team with a losing record are 65-29 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of a Spartan cover! |
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03-14-14 | Washington Wizards -5 v. Orlando Magic | 105-101 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington Wizards -
The Wizards are playing in a great spot to snap their two game losing streak and pick up a big win over the Magic. Orlando has lost four consecutive games, and even with Washington's losses in their last two games the Wizards have still won eight of their last 11 games. Orlando has been horrible against the division this season posting a 3-9 record and allowing 105 points per game. They are -6.4 points per game in scoring differential when facing a division opponent. Washington's explosive offense should have no problem scoring on Orlando today. The Magic have surrendered 102.2 points per game overall, and 105.6 points per game over their last five games. Orlando has had a lot of trouble scoring points this season. They average 97 points per game overall, but I think they will struggle to match that number tonight. Washington has held division opponents to 96.5 points per game this season and Orlando is one of the worst teams in the division. You should play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Orlando when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 points or more and they are coming off a home loss. This system is 90-47 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play on road favorites like Washington against a division opponent when they are coming off an upset loss as a favorite against another division opponent. This system is 72-38 (66%) against the spread. |
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03-14-14 | LSU v. Kentucky -4.5 | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
4* SEC No Doubt Rout on Kentucky -
The Wildcats are the better team and they should have no problem picking up a win over LSU today. The Tigers are playing in a very tough spot after playing against Alabama yesterday in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. Playing in a back-to-back situation is hard enough on its own, but to have to face a top tier team like the Wildcats in the second half of that back-to-back will prove to be too much for LSU. These teams split their games during the regular season, but Kentucky picked up a win in the most recent meeting. Kentucky is one of the top rebounding teams in the country, and I think this tired LSU team will be at a big disadvantage against the nation's fifth ranked team in rebounds per game. LSU finished the regular season losing five of its final eight games. They benefited from an easy matchup with Alabama in the opening round of the tournament, but they won't be as lucky today against the Wildcats. |
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03-14-14 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Arkansas State -4.5 | 114-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
3* Bailout on Arkansas State -
This line is not an accurate reflection of the disparity in talent between these teams. Arkansas State posted an 18-12 overall record, while Arkansas-Little Rock comes into this game with a losing record of 15-16 overall. The Red Wolves also finished higher in Sun Belt standings. When these teams met in January the Red Wolves picked up a 28 points win. They may have lost on the road against the Trojans, but that was a close game and on a neutral court Arkansas State should have no problem picking up another dominating win. The Red Wolves offense averages 75.7 points per game. When playing away from home that number only dips slightly down to 74.4 points per game. Arkansas-Little Rock on the other hand averages just 70.1 points per game overall. The Trojans see their offensive production take a big hit on the road dropping down to 67.5 points per game. Arkansas State also has a defensive advantage holding opponents to 70.4 points per game to 72.7 points allowed by the Trojans. |
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03-14-14 | NC State v. Syracuse -9 | 66-63 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
4* ACC ATS Bloodbath on Syracuse -
Syracuse struggled down the final stretch of the regular season, but they have had plenty of time to regroup coming into the conference tournament. I think they are at a huge advantage playing with four full days of rest, while NC State is playing in a back-to-back situation after squeaking by Miami in the opening round yesterday. The Orange may have lost four of their last six games, but it is important to remember those are the only four losses the team suffered all season. The biggest advantage Syracuse has in this matchup is its outstanding zone defense. The Orange have held opponents to a mere 59.3 points per game this season, a feat that gives them the country's ninth ranked scoring defense. These teams met once this season and it was Syracuse that walked away with a win. That win may have been by a slim margin, but a big reason for that can be credited to the fact that the Orange were coming off a close road win over longtime rival Pitt in the game just three days prior. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Syracuse. You should play on neutral court favorites like the Orange when they are coming off two or more consecutive overs and they are facing an opponent coming off three or more consecutive overs. This system identifies favorites that the oddsmakers have undervalued, and it has resulted in a 65-34 (66%) ATS system. |
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03-14-14 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -5.5 | 57-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
3* Big Ten Main Event on Wisconsin -
Wisconsin is clearly the better team and laying such a small number clearly puts the value on the Badgers. Wisconsin finished the regular season by winning eight of its nine final games. They have had four days to rest and prepare for tournament play, and that will be a big advantage going up against a Minnesota team that is playing in a back-to-back situation. College teams do not play on back-to-back nights very often, and I don't think the Gophers will be conditioned well enough to compete with a top tier team like Wisconsin when playing in this situation. These teams met twice during the regular season and Wisconsin picked up a win in the most recent meeting. The biggest advantage the Badgers have is a scoring defense that has surrendered just 64.2 points per game this season. The offense is averaging 73.1 points per game and the Badgers are poised to easily match that number against the Gophers soft defense. Minnesota has surrendered 71.9 points per game when playing away from home. |
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03-14-14 | Akron v. Western Michigan +1.5 | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Western Michigan +
The oddsmakers have favored the wrong team in this matchup. Western Michigan comes into this game with two less losses than Akron, and they have a statistically significant advantage on both ends of the court. They also have a better conference record at 14-4 to 13-6 from the Zips. Offensively Western Michigan averages 71.9 points per game. They are up against an Akron defense that has surrendered 72.5 points per game when playing away from home this season. On the defensive side of things Western Michigan is surrendering a mere 67.4 points per game overall, and it should be easy to match that number since Akron is not a high scoring team with 68.1 points scored per game. Western Michigan has won 10 of its last 11 games coming into this game. They are averaging 77.4 points per game over their last five games, and it is their explosive offense that makes them an easy call over Akron. We will take the points, but I expect Western Michigan to win this game outright. |
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03-14-14 | Richmond v. VCU -8.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
5* Atlantic 10 Tournament Game of the Year on VCU -
This is a perfect spot to jump on VCU. Richmond is playing undermanned right now with the injury to leading scorer Cedrick Lindsay. While the Spiders were able to come away with an impressive 76-64 win over Duquesne in their A-10 tournament opener, that didn't come as a huge surprise. Richmond beat Duquesne by 17-points on the road without Linsay back on Feb. 12. While the Spiders only lost by 6-points at home to VCU recently (March 6), the Rams didn't show up until the second half of that game. I look for the score to be a lot more lopsided this time around. VCU isn't going to take Richmond likely after almost losing to them. Another big key here is the Spiders are playing on no rest, while VCU is fresh off a 5-day layoff. That pressure defense that the Rams rely so much on should be at its finest and I expect it to lead to an easy double-digit win. Richmond is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 following a game where they covered the spread and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs a team that has won 60% or more of their games. VCU is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 overall and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record. |
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03-14-14 | Dayton v. St. Joseph's -1 | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
4* Atlantic 10 No Brainer on St Joseph's -
The Hawks are one of the most underrated teams in the Atlantic 10 and I think they easily get past the Flyers today. Dayton has not performed well on the road this season. They are scoring 73.6 points per game, but the defense has surrendered 72 points per game. St Joseph's on the other hand comes into this matchup holding opponents to 69.9 points per game on the road and 67.8 points per game overall. In a game with a single point line that is a very statistically significant difference in scoring defense. Another key factor for today's game will be free throws. The Hawks are a very smart team averaging just 16 personal fouls per game, and sending opponents to the free throw line for an average of 18 attempts per game. Dayton on the other hand has a lot of problems getting into foul trouble. They average 23 personal fouls per game when playing on the road, and their opponents have averaged 28 free throw attempts in those games. Those extra attempts from the line will prove to be a big factor in a game that is projected to be close, and it gives the Hawks a significant advantage. The Dayton Flyers have not performed well against slow-down teams like the Hawks. They are 14-28 against the spread against teams averaging 53 or less shot attempts per game after 15 or more games on the season. St Josephs secured a first round bye and they are well rested coming into this matchup. The Hawks are coming off a loss to La Salle to end the regular season and they are 6-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent. |
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03-14-14 | Florida State v. Virginia -7 | Top | 51-64 | Win | 100 | 3 h 9 m | Show |
5* No Doubt Rout of the Year on Virginia -
I don't think Florida State is worthy of playing in this quarterfinals matchup against Virginia, and the Cavaliers should have no problem picking up a double-digit win. These teams met twice during the regular season and the Cavaliers picked up a 12-point win in both of those games. Playing on a neutral court does not help the Seminoles since they could not even keep the game within single digits when playing at home. The Virginia Cavaliers have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the country. They have held opponents to a mere 55.4 points per game. Florida State is not a high scoring team to begin with averaging just 68 points per game when playing away from home. Virginia also enters this game as one of the hottest teams in the country having won 13 of its last 14 games. Florida State is a team that buckles under the pressure of playing a quality opponent. The Seminoles are 2-13 ATS versus teams that are outscoring opponents by eight or more points per game after 15 or more games in the season. The Cavaliers are outscoring opponents by an average of 10.9 points per game this year. Virginia is also well rested since they secured a first round bye in the tournament. They are 13-3 ATS when playing only their second game in a week this season. |
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03-13-14 | UNC-Charlotte v. Louisiana Tech -11 | 65-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
4* C-USA Tournament Vegas Insider on Louisiana Tech -
The Bulldogs should have no problem covering this large spread against Charlotte. Louisiana Tech destroyed the 49ers 80-60 in the only regular season meeting. Keep in mind that Charlotte had a full 4 days to prepare for that game. This time around they must face the Bulldogs on no rest, as they had to play UAB yesterday. Louisiana Tech is 8-1 ATS when playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons, while the 49ers are a dreadful 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games at least 15 games into the season versus an opponent who is outscoring the opposition by 8+ points/game. The Bulldogs are also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against poor pressure defenses that forced 14 or fewer turnovers/game and have have won these contest by an average of 16.4 ppg. |
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03-13-14 | West Virginia v. Texas -2.5 | 49-66 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Texas -
The Longhorns are an easy call in this matchup with West Virginia. Texas has been underrated all season long, and playing on a neutral court takes away any advantage West Virginia would have had over the Longhorns. The Mountaineers struggled on the road this season with a 6-9 record, and only three of those road wins came during conference play, and they happened to come against three of the worst teams in the Big 12. Texas has a huge rebounding matchup over the Mountaineers. The Longhorns rank fourth in the country in rebounds per game with 41.8, and those extra rebounds will translate to extra shot attempts. Both of these teams have put up similar shooting percentages from the field, so I think those extra rebounds and shot attempts will be a huge factor in this game. Texas has also been a very good ball control team this season committing just 12 turnovers per game on average. These teams met twice this season and Texas picked up a 2-0 sweep over West Virginia. When playing on the Mountaineers home court the Longhorns won by 11 points. Playing at home Texas picked up a dominating 17 point win. This is a neutral court matchup, but I expect the end result to easily land somewhere between those two prior games. Texas has a 22-9 record this season and they have faced a total of nine ranked teams. The Longhorns might be the biggest sleeper in the Big 12, and they will have no problem getting past the Mountaineers today. |
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03-13-14 | Central Florida v. Cincinnati -12 | 58-61 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
3* AAC Tournament Main Event on Cincinnati -
The Bearcats earned the No. 1 seed in the American Athletic Tournament, but aren't getting a whole lot of respect. Oddsmakers listed Louisville as the overwhelming favorite and even Memphis had better odds to win the tournament. This can't be sitting well with Cincinnati and I look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder and make a big time statement with a blowout win over a pretty bad UCF team. The Knights won a dogfight yesterday against Temple 94-90 and I just don't see them being able to match the Bearcat's energy in this one. Cincinnati is one of the best defensive teams in the country and should be playing with a lot of energy on that side of the ball with a full 4 days of rest. The important thing to note is that Cincinnati won both meetings during the regular season by more than the spread listed. They won 69-51 at home and 77-49 at UCF. This is clearly not a good matchup for the Knights and I expect this to get ugly rather quickly. UCF is just 2-8 ATS versus good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field this season and have lost these contests by an average of 14.5 ppg. The Knights are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against a team that has won more than 60% of their games. Cincinnati is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games after winning at least 4 of their last 5 and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played on a neutral site. Combined this adds up to a 76% system in favor of the Bearcats. |
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03-13-14 | Cal State Fullerton v. Long Beach State -6 | 56-66 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Long Beach State -
The Long Beach State 49ers have been a great team to back when playing away from home this season. They have posted a 10-6 ATS record in road games. CS-Fullerton on the other hand has been a great team to fade away from home, posting a 4-10 ATS record. The value in this matchup is on Long Beach State laying the points. They are going up against a Fullerton defense that has surrendered 73.8 points per game on the road this season. The 49ers also have a big advantage on the boards. They average 37 rebounds per game, with 12 coming on the offensive glass. Fullerton on the other hand averages only 34 rebounds per game (-1 rebounding margin) with a mere nine boards coming on the offensive glass. Long Beach State is 65-39 ATS in road or neutral court games when playing against a team with a losing record. CS-Fullerton has an 8-16 ATS record against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or less turnovers per game. The 49ers come into this matchup averaging a mere 12 turnovers per game. Long Beach State is also the hot team coming into this matchup. They have won four of their last six games, while CS-Fullerton has lost two consecutive coming into tournament play. |
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03-13-14 | Wyoming v. UNLV -8 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
5* Mountain West Tournament Game of the Year on UNLV -
This may be the Mountain West Tournament, but it is a home game for UNLV. There is not a lot of travel for the Rebels, while the Cowboys make the trek to Las Vegas as heavy underdogs. Wyoming is one of the most overrated teams in the conference. They average a mere 57.5 points per game when playing on the road or in a neutral court game, and they are facing a UNLV team that is averaging 72 points per game on the season. The Rebels are an outstanding team defensively. They have held opponents to just 65.1 points per game at home this season. Against this Cowboys team that struggles on the road they should easily improve on that number. The Cowboys will also be without Larry Nance who happens to be the team's leading scorer. The Cowboys would struggle against the Rebels with Nance, but without him this matchup will be a double-digit blowout. Wyoming is struggling coming into the conference tournament. They have lost four of their last five games straight up, and they have lost five of their last six games against the spread. I don't think the oddsmakers can set the bar high enough without Nance in the lineup for the Cowboys, so that is a trend that should continue today. Lay the points with the Rebels because they should win this game in a blowout. |
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03-13-14 | Rutgers v. Louisville -18.5 | 31-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
3* American Athletic Afternoon Annihilator on Louisville -
Louisville comes into today's showdown with Rutgers on a full 4 days of rest, while the Scarlet Knights have a quick turnaround from victory yesterday against South Florida. The Cardinals closed out the regular season 9-1 over their final 10 games and finished with a 33-point statement win over Connecticut. This is a lot of points to be laying, but there's a big enough gap in talent that Louisville should win here by 20+ rather easily. While the Cardinals won just 83-76 at Rutgers in the first meeting, they destroyed the Scarlet Knights 102-54 in the second meeting at home. When Louisville is rolling is typically a good idea to jump on the bandwagon. The Cardinals 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games off a conference win, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games with a 4-1 record over their last 5 and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games off a home win. This is also the time of the season where Louisville shines. The Cardinals are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played in the month of March. It's also worth noting that the Cardinals are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games played on a neural site. |
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03-13-14 | Utah State v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 39-73 | Win | 100 | 2 h 49 m | Show |
5* Conference Tournament No Brainer on San Diego State -
The Aztecs closed out the regular season on a 4-game winning streak, including a thrilling 51-48 come from behind win over New Mexico in the finale to give them the outright Mountain West title. I look for No. 8 ranked San Diego State to carry over that momentum with a convincing win over Utah State. While this will be the Aztecs first game of the Mountain West Tournament, the Aggies had to play Colorado State yesterday. No rest is bad news for Utah State against a top notch team like San Diego State. The Aztecs won both meetings during the regular season, winning 74-69 on the road and 60-45 at home. San Diego State should have no trouble winning here by double-digits, so don't worry about the 8-point spread. While the Aggies come in having won three straight, they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off 3 or more consecutive wins against conference opponents. Utah State is also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games versus good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 39% or worse from the field. San Diego State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week, 16-7 ATS in their last 23 after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games after 5 straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers. |
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03-13-14 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -8.5 | Top | 55-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
5* ACC Tournament Game of the Year on Pitt -
The Pitt Panthers might be the biggest sleeper in the ACC and I don't think they will have any problem getting past Wake Forest today. This is a neutral court matchup which plays heavily in the Panthers favor since the Demon Deacons are 3-11 when playing away from home this season. Against conference opponents Wake Forest has averaged a mere 66.4 points per game, and when playing on the road or a neutral court that average dips down to 65.9 points per game. Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses in the conference. They have held opponents to a mere 62.5 points per game this season. The team ranks 23rd in the country in scoring defense. On the offensive end of the court Pitt should have no problem putting up a big number. The Demon Deacons have surrendered 76.5 points per game on the road this season. This matchup fits into a system to play on neutral court favorites like Pitt after one or more consecutive overs and their opponent has gone over the total three or more consecutive times. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the favorite. It has resulted in a 121-68 (64%) record against the spread. When the favorite is coming off two or more consecutive overs the system tightens up to 64-31 (67%) against the spread. |
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03-13-14 | Fordham v. Dayton -10.5 | 74-87 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
3* A-10 Tournament Play of the Day on Dayton -
The Flyers have been a team on a mission down the stretch. Dayton is 9-1 since Feb. 1 and are an impressive 7-3 ATS during this run. Don't be fooled by Fordham's 70-67 upset win over George Mason in the opening round of the A-10 Tournament. The Rams had lost 8 straight prior to that victory and six of those losses came by double-digits. In the lone meeting between these two teams this season, Dayton won 80-68 at Fordham, which leaves plenty of reason to believe they can win on a neutral setting by 11+. Keep in mind that the Flyers have a big advantage here playing on a full 4 days of rest, while the Rams are forced to play their second game in two days. Even with yesterday's win over George Mason, Fordham is 3-12 on the road this season. One of the keys to playing to Dayton is that the Rams are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games off a win and have lost these contests by an average of 21.3 ppg. Dayton is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs a team with a losing record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team that has won fewer than 40% of their games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral site. |
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03-13-14 | Tulane v. Tulsa -13 | 49-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Tulsa -
These teams met once earlier this season and it was the same kind of blowout I think we can expect today in the C-USA Tournament. Tulsa picked up a 97-71 win in that first meeting. Tulane is a very soft team defensively. They have allowed just shy of 73 points per game when playing on the road, while their opponents scoring average is only 69.9 points per game. Today they run into a Tulsa team averaging 73.2 points per game. Tulsa is the hot team coming into this matchup. Tulane has lost two of their last three, and they did not deserve to win the game against North Texas in their last outing. Tulsa on the other hand has won eight consecutive games straight up, and 10 consecutive against the spread. The Golden Hurricane's opponents have a scoring average of almost 71 points per game, yet they have held those opponents to 68.2 points per game. That tells me this is a very talented team defensively, and they are facing a Tulane team that averages just 61.3 points per game on the road. Tulsa is 8-1 against the spread when facing a poor ball movement teams that average less than 12 assists per game. Tulane averages just nine assists per game while committing 13 turnovers which is a good indication of just how bad the Green Wave are. If you think revenge is going to be a factor you can think again. The first matchup was played back in January, so I doubt the Green Wave will draw much motivation from that loss. It is also worth noting that Tulane is 11-22 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last three seasons. |
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03-12-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -
The Clippers are riding an eight game win streak, and I see no reason why they won't be able to continue to keep that record intact on their home court today. Over their last five games the Clippers are averaging an impressive 115 points per game, while the defense has surrendered a mere 95.8 points per game. They are facing a Golden State team that has surrendered 101 points per game to division opponents this season. Rest profiles are also in favor of the Clippers. They come into this game with a day to prepare, while Golden State is coming off a game last night where they hosted Dallas. Golden State's up-tempo style of play plays into the Clippers favor. They are 47-29 against the spread versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shot attempts per game. You should play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Clippers when they are revenging a road loss of 10 points or more and the game involves two good teams having won 60 to 75% of their games on the season. The last time these teams met the game was played at Golden State and the Warriors won big, so I expect the Clippers to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight. This system is 116-70 (62%) against the spread. |
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03-12-14 | New York Knicks -4.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 116-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year on Knicks -
This matchup has blowout written all over it. The New York Knicks are playing for a season best fifth consecutive win. Almost surprisingly, the Knicks are just 3.5 games back on Atlanta for the eighth and final seed in the playoffs. With the season winding down this is a motivated team that will be hungry for a win against a Boston team that is not far behind them in the conference standings. Boston is playing in a tough spot after losing on the road just last night to Indiana. Now they have to play in a tough back-to-back situation against a red hot and well rested Knicks team. A bad team like the Celtics usually does not fare well in these situations. Add in the fact that New York is averaging 108.2 points per game over its last five games while Boston is allowing 99.8 points per game during that stretch and we have a blowout in the making. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Celtics. You should fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Boston when they are revenging a loss against their opponent, and they are coming off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system finds home underdogs the oddsmakers have overvalued. It has resulted in a 64-27 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-12-14 | Detroit Pistons v. Toronto Raptors -9.5 | 87-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Toronto Raptors -
The Detroit Pistons are really struggling right now. They have lost 10 of their last 13 games, and although they picked up a win over Sacramento in their last outing, they have done very little to show any signs of life. Now the Pistons are tasked with facing one of the best teams in the Atlantic division. If the losing streak and a tough opponent were not enough, their unfavorable rest profile should be. Detroit is playing in a back to pack situation after hosting the Kings last night. They have to face a Toronto team that is playing with a day of rest, and the Raptors should be playing with plenty of motivation after dropping a close game on the road with their division rival. You should play against teams like Detroit when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 points or more, and that opponent is coming off a loss against a division rival. The last time these teams met Toronto handed the Pistons a 112-91 beat down. This system has a very favorable 84-38 (69%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. When the team is an underdog revenging a loss that system tightens up to 57-24 (70%) against the spread. |
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03-12-14 | Boston College +1.5 v. Georgia Tech | 70-73 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
3* ACC Play of the Day on Boston College +
The wrong team appears to be favored in this matchup. Boston College should have no problem winning this game against Georgia Tech. The Eagles may have finished towards the bottom of the ACC standings, but the Yellow Jackets were right there with them. Statistically Boston College is a much better team than Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are averaging 65 points per game away from home while allowing 69.1 points in those games. Meanwhile, Boston College comes into this matchup averaging 68.6 points per game on the season. I think the Eagles defensive stats are a bit misleading. When you look at their strength of schedule, Boston College's opponents have a scoring average over 70 points per game. Facing a lowly team like Georgia Tech provides a great opportunity for Boston College to showcase its defensive talents. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Eagles. You should play on an underdog like Boston College when they are revenging a close loss by three points or less, and they are coming off a road loss by 10 points or more. In this situation the oddsmakers have a tendency to severely undervalue underdogs, and it has resulted in a 130-77 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-12-14 | Washington +5.5 v. Utah | 61-67 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
4* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Washington +
The Utah Utes have not been a very good team on the road, and although this is not a traditional road game, I still think they will struggle on a neutral court against an underrated team like Washington. These teams met twice this season and split their games in some very close battles. At this price I think the value is on the underdog since this is a matchup that will be close, but could certainly be won by either team. The Utes take a big hit in offensive production when playing on the road. Their scoring average drops from 77 points per game down to 64 points per game. Washington on the other hand may have a slightly lower overall scoring average at 74.9 points per game, but their 70.5 points per game away from home will give them a big advantage over the Utes today. The Huskies had a strong finish to the season winning three of their final four games. They closed the season with a win over USC, but failed to cover the spread in their last two matchups. Washington is 25-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games. Utah comes into this matchup playing some of its worst defense of the season. The Utes are 21-49 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five seals or less. |
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03-11-14 | Texas-San Antonio +5.5 v. East Carolina | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
5* Conference USA Tournament Game of the Year on UTSA +
The Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners did not have a great season overall, but I still think they are a n easy call in this matchup with one of the conference's worst teams, East Carolina. The Roadrunners biggest problem this season was a defense that struggled to slow opponents down. During the final stretch of the regular season they seemed to have things back on track defensively. The team allowed over 76 points per game on the season, but over their last five games they held opponents to a mere 71.4 points per game. East Carolina averages just 70.3 points per game when playing away from home. The defense has surrendered 72.8 points per game in those games. The Pirates only faced the Roadrunners once this season and that game was played at East Carolina. On a neutral court UTSA should have no problem narrowing the margin of defeat, and I even expect the Roadrunners to have a good chance at winning this game in the final seconds. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the UTSA Roadrunners. You should play against teams like East Carolina on a neutral court when they have gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last seven games and they have a winning record on the season and are playing a team with a losing record. This system has a 50-15 (77%) record against the spread. |
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03-11-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Minnesota Timberwolves -14.5 | 101-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -
This matchup has blowout written all over it. Milwaukee is one of the worst teams in the league, and the Bucks have done very little to show they are capable of keeping this game close against an excellent offensive team like Minnesota. The Timberwolves are averaging 106.6 points per game at home, while Milwaukee has surrendered an average of 104 points per game on the road this season. What makes things even worse for the Bucks is the fact that they are forced to play in a back-to-back situation after hosting Orlando last night. Now they face this Minnesota team that is playing with a day of rest. The Bucks are 1-11 ATS when playing their fourth game in five days, and that is a trend that should continue tonight against Minnesota. You should play on teams like Minnesota in a game involving two teams allowing 102 points per game or more, after they have scored 100 points or more in four straight games. This system is 77-42 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons. The worst team in the league will not be able to stop Minnesota tonight and the W'Wolves win this game in a blowout. |
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03-11-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Memphis Grizzlies -
At one point in the season the Portland Trailblazers looked nearly unstoppable. That day is long gone, and now they enter tonight's matchup with Memphis having lost three of their last four games. The Grizzlies on the other hand have won four of their last five games, as their season begins to turn the corner. Over their last five games the Grizzlies offense has really turned things up. They are averaging 102 points per game, while the defense is surrendering a mere 93.8 points per game. That tough Grizzlies defense should give the Trailblazers fits tonight, and Portland's poor defensive play on the road (105.6 points per game allowed) should allow Memphis to easily pull away with a win. This matchup fits into a system to fade Portland. You should play against teams like the Grizzlies when they are revenging a straight up loss against an opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. This system has a very profitable record of 127-74 (63%) against the spread. |
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03-10-14 | South Dakota State -3 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | 60-64 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
3* Bailout Blowout on South Dakota State -
Winning during a conference tournament has a lot to do with which teams get hot at the right time. There is no team in the Summit League hotter than the Jackrabbits. They have won nine of their last 10 games, and after putting a 21 point beat down on Western Illinois I like there chances to pick up a big win on a neutral court against IPFW. These teams split their games this season. When IPFW played host the squeaked by with a seven point win in a game that was much closer than the final score. When the Jackrabbits played host they dominated with a 28 point victory. The neutral court is going to favor the better team, and that better team is without a doubt South Dakota State. Not only has South Dakota State been winning games straight up, they have also covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games. They have done so by playing outstanding defense. IPFW has played a soft schedule down the stretch and that has afforded the Mastodons with a 54.5 percent shooting percentage from the field over their last five games. They won't have that luxury today against this Jackrabbits team that has allowed a mere 39.9 percent shooting percentage over their last five games. |
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03-10-14 | Denver Nuggets v. Charlotte Bobcats -5.5 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Charlotte Bobcats -
The Charlotte Bobcats have won six consecutive home games, and they should have no problem making it a seventh straight when they host the Denver Nuggets tonight. Denver has been horrible on the road this season posting an 11-19 record. The biggest problem for the Nuggets has been their defense. They are allowing 107.1 points per game on the road. Charlotte may not be known for an explosive offensive attack since the team averages 95.4 points per game, but that should change in this matchup with Denver. The Bobcats are averaging 101 points per game over their last five games, and they are facing a Nuggets team that has surrendered 116 points per game over their last five games. Charlotte has the benefit of home court advantage, and the Bobcats are also getting Denver in a back-to-back situation after playing New Orleans on the road yesterday. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Bobcats. You should play against road underdogs like Denver when they are revenging a home loss and their opponent is coming off a loss on the road. This system is 164-103 (61%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-10-14 | Kent State v. Miami Ohio -3 | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on Miami Ohio -
The records for these teams are a bit misleading. Miami Ohio played a very tough non-conference schedule so they are coming into the first round of the MAC Tournament with a 12-17 overall record. Their 8-10 record in MAC play is one game better than opponent Kent State. The RedHawks have a recent win over the Golden Flashes, beating Kent State on its home court 73-61 just under a week ago. The Golden Flashes finished the regular season by losing four of their last five games. They are averaging a mere 65 points per game during that stretch, while allowing 68.6 points per game on the defensive end of the court. Kent State has not fared well on the road this season, and with home court advantage there is no reason the RedHawks cannot pick up another double-digit win against the Golden Flashes tonight. Fading Kent State come tournament time has proved to be a very lucrative move over the last few seasons. They Golden Flashes are 2-11 ATS in all tournament games over the last three seasons. These teams may have split games this season with Kent State winning the first meeting, but that victory was a statistical anomaly. The Golden Flashes made 58 percent of their 26 three-point attempts in that game, and that is a feat that is very unlikely to take place again since the team has made just 34.6 percent of their attempts on the season. The matchup from last week is a more telling indicator of what we can expect to see tonight. |
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03-10-14 | Washington Wizards +7 v. Miami Heat | Top | 90-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
5* Southeast Division Game of the Month on Wizards +
The Miami Heat are playing in a very tough spot tonight. First of all, the Heat have lost three consecutive games coming into this matchup. The Heat just played yesterday in Chicago in a losing effort against the Bulls. Now they are tasked with returning home to host the Wizards in a back-to-back situation when Washington is coming into this game with a day of rest. Washington is one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. The Wizards have won eight of their last night games, including five consecutive on the road. Washington is averaging 115.6 points per game over their last five games, and they are averaging 104.7 points per game against division opponents. The defense has really stepped up in those division games, allowing a mere 96 points per game. You should play against home teams like Miami when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are playing on back-to-back days. This system is 99-50 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play on road teams like Washington when they are averaging 98 to 102 points per game and are facing a defense allowing the same number of points aver 42 or more games, and that road team has scored 100 points or more in two straight games. This system is 48-17 (74%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-09-14 | Indiana Pacers -1.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | 94-105 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -
The Pacers may be on a three game skid, but they are still clearly the best team in the league. Their recent losing streak has only created value as Indiana looks to get some revenge against Dallas from a loss last month. The Mavericks are not playing much better than Indiana, so it is surprising to see the Pacers listed as such a small favorite. Dallas has lost three of its last four games coming into this matchup. The Indiana Pacers have the best defense in the league in terms of points allowed. They have held opponents to a mere 92 points per game this season. The last time they faced the Mavericks the Pacers gave up just 81 points. They suffered from a poor shooting performance in that game, but that was an anomaly that should not be credited to good defensive play from Dallas. The Mavericks have allowed 102.5 points per game at home this season and opponents are making 47 percent of their shot attempts in those games. You should play against home underdogs like Dallas when they are averaging less than 14.5 turnovers per game and are facing a team that forces less than 14.5 turnovers per game after 42 or more games. This system is 233-157 (60%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Indiana is the better team, and winning by two points should be an easy task for the best team in the East. |
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03-09-14 | La Salle +8.5 v. St. Joseph's | 71-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on La Salle +
The Explorers are an easy call in this matchup against Saint Joseph's. La Salle will have several key advantages today. They are the better rebounding team pulling in 36 boards per game which ranks 114th in the nation. The Hawks on the other hand rank 151st in the nation in rebounds per game. Defensively La Salle has played incredibly well this season, especially when on the road. They are holding opponents to just 66.2 points per game. The Hawks do not have a lot to play for in this game. They cannot move ahead of Saint Louis in the A-10 standings, so at this point they are just trying to prepare for the conference tournament. La Salle comes into this matchup having won two of its last three games. They are playing to end the season on a positive note after a bad stretch in February. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against favorites like St Josephs when they have gone over the total by more than six points in four consecutive games, and they are playing against an opponent that has gone under the total by 36 points or more combined in their last five games. This system is 40-20 (67%) against the spread. |
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03-08-14 | Washington Wizards -8.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 114-107 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Wizards -
Milwaukee is the worst team in the league. They have allowed opponents 102.3 points per game this season, while the offense has averaged a mere 92.8 points per game when playing at home. Washington is a very good team with an explosive offense, and the Wizards have no business being a single-digit favorite. Washington has averaged 115.8 points per game over their last five games and they will have no problem picking up a double-digit win today. The Bucks come into this matchup with a 7-25 straight up record at home, and a 12-20 ATS record in those games. Washington on the other hand has been a great team to back on the road this season with a 22-8 ATS record. Washington is also the hot team coming into this matchup. The Wizards have won seven of their last eight games, posting a 6-2 record against the spread. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Bucks. You should play against home underdogs like Milwaukee when they have lost 15 or more of their last 20 games and they have won 25 percent of their games or less on the season, and they are facing a team with a winning record. This system has an 80-38 (68%) ATS record over the last five seasons. |
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03-08-14 | Colorado State +1.5 v. Wyoming | 75-83 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
4* False Favorite Game of the Week on Colorado State +
The wrong team is favored in this matchup. Wyoming is a very overrated team. The last time these teams met the Rams picked up a 15 point win. The change in venue may allow the Cowboys to decrease that margin of loss, but it will not be enough for them to win this game. Colorado State is averaging 73.4 points per game this season. The Cowboys come into this matchup averaging a mere 64.6 points per game. The reason Wyoming was blown out by the Rams in the first meeting of the season is because they are a poor rebounding team. Colorado State pulls in 38 rebounds per game, with 11 of them coming on the offensive glass. The Cowboys on the other hand are averaging 29 rebounds per game with just four coming on the offensive glass. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on Colorado State. You should take a team like the Rams when the line is three points or less and they are an excellent ball handling team that averages less than 12 turnovers per game, and they are coming off five straight games forcing opponents to commit 14 turnovers or less. This system has a 212-158 (57%) ATS record over the last five seasons. |
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03-08-14 | Utah v. Stanford -4.5 | Top | 60-61 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
5* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford -
This matchup has blowout written all over it. Utah has been horrible on the road this season posting a 2-7 record. They are facing a very underrated Stanford team that averages 78 points per game at home. The Cardinal are 11-4 in home games, which includes a 10-3 record against the spread. Stanford also has a very underrated defense. The Cardinal have held opponents to a mere 66.2 points per game at home this season. Stanford is also 8-2 ATS in home games against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing less than 14 turnovers per game. Utah has forced an average of 12 turnovers per game on the road this season. The Utes have some artificially inflated shooting statistics thanks to a very soft schedule. That should not slow the Cardinal down since they have a 63-42 ATS record when facing teams that are making 48% or more of their shot attempts. Utah may average 49.6 percent from the field overall this season, but when playing on the road that number dips down to 41.7 percent shooting. The Utes also go from averaging 77.8 points per game to 64.9 points per game on the road. |
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03-08-14 | Connecticut +9 v. Louisville | 48-81 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
3* American Athletic Game of the Week on UConn +
This is a lot of points for a game that could easily be won by UConn. The Huskies have one of the best defenses in the country surrendering 62.8 points per game. In the last game against Louisville the Huskies suffered from an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance. They were held to 35 percent shooting from the field, and that is unlikely to take place again today. UConn is also the hot team coming into this matchup. They have won three straight games, including a victory over then No. 11 ranked Cincinnati. I don't think Louisville will get a big benefit from home court advantage since UConn has dominated on the road with a 10-3 record. The Huskies are a team that plays incredibly well against good teams. They are 52-31 ATS in road games against teams that are outscoring opponents by eight or more points per game after 15 or more games in the season. Louisville on the other hand has not performed well as a home favorite. The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. |
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03-07-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets -9 | 126-134 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Denver Nuggets -
This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Lakers are playing in a tough spot tonight. They are in the second half of a back-to-back after hosting the Clippers last night, and now they have to play on the road against Denver. In last night's game the Lakers were blown out by 48 points so the team's confidence has to be at a season low. The Nuggets have an explosive offense. They are averaging 103.6 points per game at home this season. They should have no problem putting up an even bigger number tonight since the Lakers have allowed 108.2 points per game on the road. It is also worth noting that over their last five games the Lakers have surrendered an average of 122 points per game. You should play against road underdogs like the Lakers when they are revenging a home loss to their opponent, and they are coming off two or more consecutive home losses. The last time these teams met the Nuggets picked up a 22 point win in Los Angeles. This system has a 66-31 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-07-14 | Oakland +3.5 v. Wright State | 57-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Oakland +
The last time these teams met Wright State squeaked by with a single point win. The Golden Grizzlies will be playing with a lot more motivation in this matchup, and I like there chances to play another great game against the Raiders. Oakland is coming off a confidence boosting win over Youngstown State, and now they get the Raiders on a neutral court with a chance to keep their postseason dreams alive. Statistically the Grizzlies matchup well with the Raiders. Wright State is not a strong rebounding team. They average a mere 29 rebounds per game, with only seven of those coming on the offensive glass. That ranks them 344th in the country in rebounds per game. The Raiders are also ranked 270th in points per game with 67.4, while the Grizzlies average 74.9 points per game and rank 78th in the country. Oakland is 33-15 against the spread when playing on the road or a neutral court against a conference opponent. They are also 17-7 ATS in March games with Greg Kampe as the head coach. Kampe is the third longest-tenured Division 1 head coach in the country. That kind of experience makes Oakland a dangerous team in the postseason. In this matchup the Grizzlies are both more talented and experienced than Wright State. |
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03-06-14 | North Dakota -9 v. Southern Utah | 71-77 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on North Dakota -
Southern Utah has been unable to win a game since their first game of the season. They are one of the worst teams in college basketball, and I don't think the Thunderbirds can play a close game against North Dakota and its 85th ranked offense. Southern Utah ranks 350th in the country in points per game with 58.6. North Dakota on the other hand is averaging 74.3 points per game, and should have no problem exceeding that number against this Thunderbirds defense that has surrendered 75 points per game. North Dakota is 1.5 games back on Weber State in the Big Sky standings, and they have a half game lead over third place Montana. There is still a lot to play for, and that means this will be another blowout loss for Southern Utah. This matchup fits into a system to play against the Thunderbirds. You should fade teams like Southern Utah when they are revenging a same season loss, and they are off two straight losses against conference rivals. This system has a 172-103 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-06-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder -6 v. Phoenix Suns | 122-128 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Oklahoma City Thunder -
The Thunder are on fire right now having won three straight games coming into this matchup against the Suns. Phoenix is coming off a tough loss to the Clippers in its last outing, and I expect a similar result tonight against Oklahoma City. Over their last five games the Thunder are averaging 115 points per game, and they should have no problem putting up another huge number against the Suns' soft defense. The Suns are struggling at the point guard position, and that will make it incredibly difficult to play a close game against a top tier team like the Thunder. Eric Bledsoe has been out since December with a knee injury, and in their last game against the Clippers the Suns lost their backup Leandro Barbosa. Barbosa will miss up to six weeks with a fractured hand. The Suns are now 2-4 in their last six games and allowing more than 110 points per game during that stretch. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Thunder. You should play on road favorites like Oklahoma City when they are coming off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more. This system identifies teams that the oddsmakers have undervalued, and it has resulted in a 56-29 (66%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-06-14 | USC-Upstate +7.5 v. Mercer | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
5* Atlantic Sun Game of the Year on USC Upstate +
In the Spartans two games against Mercer they lost 60-62 in overtime on the road, and embarrassed the Bears 80-61 at home. Upstate might be the most underrated team in the Atlantic Sun Conference, and their is simply no reason they should be such a large underdog in this matchup. Six of the Spartans seven conference losses came by six-points or less. USC Upstate is averaging 73.7 points per game. The Spartans have already shown us they can score on Mercer since they put up 80 points the last time these teams met. Mercer on the other hand has put up just 60 and 62 points against the Spartans underrated defense. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Spartans. You should play on road teams like USC Upstate when they are coming off two straight wins by six points or less, and they are facing an opponent that scored 85 points or more in their previous game. This system identifies matchups where the road team has been undervalued, and it has resulted in a 55-26 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-06-14 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion -4 | 47-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Old Dominion -
When these teams met back in January it was Old Dominion picking up a double-digit win on the road. In the final game of the regular season I see no reason why the Monarchs cannot pick up another impressive win over the Pirates, this time on their home court. The Pirates have not fared well on the road this season posting a 7-6 record. These teams may have similar overall records, but the most telling number about the disparity in talent between them are their conference records. Old Dominion is 8-7 in conference games while the Pirates are 5-10. The Monarchs should have no problem improving on that number from their home court where they have allowed a mere 63.8 points per game this season. East Carolina is 10-27 ATS when they are revenging a loss as a favorite. The Pirates are also 24-43 ATS when revenging any same season loss. Old Dominion is coming off very poor performance against Charlotte in its last outing, and that has created value on today's line. The Monarchs should dominate this game from start to finish. |
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03-05-14 | Air Force +18 v. New Mexico | 52-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
4* Mountain West Game of the Week on Air Force +
The Lobos are playing in the perfect situation to look past Air Force as they prepare to take on the Mountain West co-leader in their regular season finale. Air Force is coming into this matchup under the radar with an 11-16 record, and they are in a good spot to play a great game against the unsuspecting Lobos. New Mexico will be on the road against San Diego State to determine the regular season champion of the Mountain West assuming both teams get past tonight's opponent with a win, and with such a big game on deck I think they come up short of covering the spread against the Falcons tonight. The Falcons are unlikely to pull off an upset, but they are definitely capable of keeping this game within the 18 points they are being spotted. Only three of Air Force's 11 conference losses have come by a margin large enough to cover this line. The Falcons were on the road against San Diego State just a few weeks ago and manged to stick to within a single digit margin, and I expect them to deliver a similar result tonight. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Air Force. You should play on road underdogs like the Falcons when they have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more points in their last 10 games, and they are facing an opponent that has gone under the total by 24 points or more in their last three games. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the home team and it has resulted in a 38-13 (75%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-05-14 | Texas Tech +14 v. Kansas | 57-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Texas Tech +
The Kansas Jayhawks do not have a lot to play for tonight. They are already the regular season conference champions, and with a lack of motivation I think they will have a lot of trouble covering a double-digit spread against this hungry Red Raiders team. Texas Tech's season has been a disaster, but they have played some great basketball down the stretch. Four of their last five games have been decided by 10 points or less, which includes matchups against a ranked Iowa State team, and a game against the Jayhawks. Kansas will rest Joel Embiid for this game in preparation for the postseason. When these teams met just over two weeks ago Embiid accounted for 18 of the Jayhawks 64 points. Kansas ended up winning that game by a single point. The lack of motivation showed on the road against Oklahoma State in the Jayhawks' last outing, and I think we can expect a similar performance tonight against Texas Tech. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Red Raiders. You should play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Texas Tech when they are revenging a loss of three points or less and they are coming off a road loss by 10 points or more. In this situation the oddsmakers have a tendency to undervalue the underdog and it has resulted in a 41-13 (76%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-05-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Boston Celtics +5 | 108-88 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics +
The Warriors are playing in a letdown spot today after winning a close game on the road against Indiana last night. Playing in a back-to-back situation is always tough, but doing so when coming off a big win like Golden State is will prove to be incredibly difficult tonight against this Celtics team that is starting to get hot on offence. Over their last five games Boston has averaged 100 points per game. Boston has covered the spread in three of their last four games. They are coming into this matchup with plenty of rest having three days off since hosting the Pacers the first of March. These teams met back in January and the Celtics managed to stick to within two points playing at Golden State. This time they have the luxury of playing host, so I like their chances to play another close game with the Warriors. The Warriors have been a soft team defensively when playing on the road. They are surrendering 99.9 points per game, and that puts them at a serious disadvantage against this well rested Celtics team. Boston has held opponents to 97.3 points per game at home this season, and they should have no problem improving on that number against Golden State tonight. |
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03-05-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Charlotte Bobcats +4.5 | 87-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
4* Letdown Game of the Week on Bobcats +
The Indiana Pacers are playing in a bad letdown spot after losing at home to Golden State last night. Now they are in the second half of a back-to-back, traveling to Charlotte to take on the Bobcats. Charlotte should be well prepared for this game since they are playing with a day of rest following a three game road trip. The Bobcats have been playing some great basketball at home recently. They have a perfect 4-0 record in their last four home games, which includes an upset win as an underdog over the Dallas Mavericks. Charlotte's last loss at home came against San Antonio, but it was a game where the Bobcats still managed to cover the spread. Now they have the luxury of facing Indiana in a percent situation to give the Pacers a scare. Charlotte is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games against teams from the Central division. Meanwhile, the Pacers are coming into this matchup with a 1-6 ATS record in their last seven games overall. Indiana has really been struggling away from home posting a 2-6 ATS record in their last eight road games. |
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03-04-14 | Miami Heat v. Houston Rockets +1 | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets +
The Miami Heat are playing in a very tough spot tonight, and even Lebron James won't be able to get them past the Rockets. Miami was at home last night hosting Charlotte, and now they have to play the second half of a back-to-back on the road in Houston tonight. The Rockets have been on fire recently, winning 11 of their last 13 games. Over their last five games they are scoring an impressive 110.8 points per game. Houston has a 23-7 record at home this season, and the oddsmakers have really undervalued their home court advantage tonight. The Rockets are holding opponents to a mere 98.8 points per game when playing at home, while averaging 106.9 points per game on the offensive end of the court. With Houston's offense playing as well as they have been, and Miami playing without rest, the Rockets should have no problem picking up a win on their home court. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Houston. You should play against road teams like Miami when the line is three points or less and they went over the total by 18 points or more in their previous game, and both teams have a winning record on the season. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the road team and it has resulted in a 49-21 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-04-14 | Northern Colorado +4 v. North Dakota | 90-94 | Push | 0 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
4* Big Sky Game of the Month on Northern Colorado +
North Dakota is clearly outmatched against Northern Colorado today. The Bears should have no problem putting up big numbers against North Dakota's soft defense. The Bears come into this matchup averaging 74.1 points per game, making 48.7 percent of their attempts from the field and 38.7 percent of their attempts from beyond the three point line. North Dakota has surrendered 73.3 points per game this season, allowing just over 48 percent shooting from the field. These teams met earlier this season and the Bears picked up an 18 point win. North Dakota has won three straight games coming into this matchup, but only one of those teams has a winning record. North Dakota will be at a severe disadvantage on the boards in this matchup. They rank 321st in the nation with just 31.1 rebounds per game. Northern Colorado is 6-0 ATS against terrible defensive teams that are allowing a shooting percentage of 48 percent or worse. The Bears are coming off a tough home loss, but in the past those types of games seem to serve as motivation. They are 13-4 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival. The Bears are the better team and it will show today. |
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03-04-14 | Jacksonville +14.5 v. Mercer | 64-85 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Jacksonville +
These teams met last Saturday and the Jacksonville Dolphins were able to stick to within 14 points on the road. There is a lot of value getting the Dolphins as a 14.5 point underdog in this rematch. Jacksonville knows what adjustments need to be made to play a better game against Mercer this time around. The Dolphins suffered from an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance in the previous matchup with the Bears making just 40 percent of their attempts. Jacksonville averages 74.7 points per game this season, and they have made an average of almost 44 percent of their attempts from the field. With an average shooting performance tonight Jacksonville will easily keep this game within a single-digit margin. Jacksonville may have lost their last regular season game to Mercer, but the Dolphins still had a very strong finish to the season. They managed to win three of their final four games. Over their final five games the Dolphins boosted their scoring average to 75.8 points per game, while Mercer finished the season well below its scoring average at 73.6 points per game. The value is on Jacksonville covering the spread in today's rematch. |
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03-03-14 | Montana State +9.5 v. Montana | 50-53 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
4* Big Sky Game of the Week on Montana State +
The value in this matchup is on the road team when in-state rivals Montana State and Montana face off tonight. The last time these teams met the game was decided by a mere four points, and the change in venue is not going to be enough to give the Grizzlies a double-digit advantage. Both of these teams have similar overall and conference records, and with this being a rivalry game it is one that could easily be won outright by the Bobcats. Montana has not fared well from the favorite position this season. They are 3-10 against the spread when playing as a favorite. The Grizzlies are also 1-8 against the spread in home games after a win by 15 points or more over the last three seasons. The Bobcats should have no problem keeping this game close against their in-state rival today. In the first meeting of the season they suffered from a below average shooting performance and still managed to stick to within four points. I don't credit their poor shooting in that game to good defensive play by the Grizzlies since Montana has allowed opponents to average 70.3 points per game on almost 48 percent shooting from the field this season. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Bobcats. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Montana State when they average 67-74 points per game, and they are facing an opponent allowing 67-74 points per game after 15 or more games, and they scored 30 points or less in the first half of their last two games. This system has a 79-37 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-03-14 | Utah Jazz v. Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 | 88-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -
The Utah Jazz are playing their third game in the last four days. This is the second half of a back-to-back after losing on the road against Indiana last night. Now the Jazz have to travel to Milwaukee for their third consecutive road game to face a Bucks team that has been playing better than their record would indicate. Milwaukee comes into this matchup having covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games. They may not be winning a lot of games straight up, but they are definitely keeping games close against good teams. They should have no problem picking up a win with the lowly Jazz in town. The Jazz have lost five of their last seven games, and playing on the road again in a back-to-back situation will simply be too much to overcome. The Jazz are 2-10 against the spread after playing two consecutive road games this season. They are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing without a day of rest. In the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams the home team is 11-2 against the spread. With Milwaukee coming into this matchup with a day of rest and home court advantage they should have no problem picking up a win tonight. |
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03-03-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Brooklyn Nets -3 | 80-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Brooklyn Nets -
The home team has a big advantage in this matchup when the Brooklyn Nets host the Chicago Bulls tonight. Chicago is playing in a tough spot after hosting New York last night, and now they have the play the second half of a back-to-back against this Brooklyn team that has won three of its last four games. The Nets are playing with a day of rest, and they are back on their home court where they will try to revenge a loss against Chicago that opened a seven game road trip that started just over two weeks ago. Both of these teams have talented defenses, but it is the Nets offense that gives them the advantage in this game. Brooklyn is averaging 98.8 points per game at home this season, which is more than enough to cover such a small spread against a Bulls team that averages 92.1 points per game on the road. Chicago's offensive numbers have come against teams with much softer defenses than what they will face from Brooklyn tonight. The Bulls' opponents have a defensive scoring average over 100 points per game. Chicago has not played well on the road this year. They have a 15-16 straight up record. The fact that Chicago is surrendering 94.5 points per game on the road while only scoring 92.1 points per game is a good indication that the Bulls are even worse than their losing road record would indicate. This will be Chicago's third game in the last four days, and I don't think they can keep it close against a rested Brooklyn team playing with home court advantage. |
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03-03-14 | Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 v. Washington Wizards | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
4* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Grizzlies -
The Wizards are trying for their longest winning streak in over nine years tonight, but it is a streak they will not be achieving with the Memphis Grizzlies in town. Memphis has been playing incredibly well recently, and with their offense rolling the way it has been the Wizards are simply outmatched. Over their last five games the Grizzlies have averaged over 103 points per game. Washington's recent run has also come against a fairly soft schedule. They are coming off a road game against one of the worst teams in the league, and I don't give the Wizards a lot of credibility for beating up on teams like Philadelphia, Orlando, Cleveland and New Orleans. Washington has yet to face a defense as talented as the Grizzlies' during their recent run. Memphis comes into this matchup surrendering a mere 92.3 points per game on the road this season. You should play against home teams with a line of three points or less in a game involving two teams that are +/- three points per game in differential after 42 or more games, and after the home team has allowed 100 points or more in two straight games. This system is 93-48 (66%) against the spread. You should also play on road favorites like Memphis after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games. This system is 209-132 (61%) against the spread. |
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03-02-14 | Golden State Warriors -2 v. Toronto Raptors | 98-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -
The Warriors should have no problem picking up a win over Toronto today. Over their last five games they have been playing some outstanding defense surrendering just 97.4 points per game. They are facing a Raptors team that has allowed over 100 points per game over their last five games. Golden State has also dominated the recent head-to-head history between these teams boasting a 3-1 record both straight up and against the spread over the last three seasons. I don't think home court advantage will be a big factor for Toronto tonight. Golden State is coming into this game with a day of rest, so the impact of traveling will not be as bad as it is when teams are playing in a back-to-back situation. The Raptors have benefited from a soft schedule at home this year, but that changes today. Toronto is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team that has won 60 to 70 percent of its games on the season. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Warriors. You should play on road favorites like Golden State when they are averaging over 102 points per game and facing a team allowing 92 to 98 points per game, after a blowout win by 20 points or more. This system has a 48-22 (69%) record against the spread. |
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03-02-14 | South Alabama +9.5 v. UL-Lafayette | 76-102 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on South Alabama +
This is the second meeting of the season between these teams. In the first matchup South Alabama picked up an eight point win on their home court. This time the venue to will change and the Ragin' Cajuns will play host, but home court advantage is not going to be enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for Louisiana-Lafayette to cover such a large spread. The Ragin' Cajuns have a much better record than the Jaguars, but with the way these teams matchup the value is with South Alabama. Lafayette is a team that likes to run an up-tempo offense to tire their opponent, but South Alabama is too good defensively for that style of play to work. The Jaguars have held opponents to 69.8 points per game this season, and that includes holding the Cajuns to 73 points earlier this season. Lafayette typically averages over 81 points per game. The Cajun's defense has been horrible allowing just shy of 75 points per game. They surrendered a whopping 81 points to the Jaguars last time these teams met. The Jaguars have dominated the head-to-head history with Lafayette. Over the last three seasons, South Alabama is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread when facing the Cajuns. In all games played at Louisiana-Lafayette since 1997, the Jaguars are 8-5 against the spread. The Cajuns are 3-11 ATS after having won two of their last three games. They are coming off a tough road loss to Georgia State in their last outing, and I expect that loss to have a lingering negative effect. |
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03-01-14 | Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 v. Sacramento Kings | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Minnesota T'Wolves -
Minnesota is an easy call in this matchup against Sacramento tonight. The Wolves are coming off three days of rest, while the Kings are playing in the second half of a back-to-back situation after facing the Lakers last night. Minnesota is also the hot team coming into this game. The Wolves have won four of their last five games both straight up and against the spread. Both of these teams have had their share of issues defensively this season, but over their last five games the Timberwolves have stepped up their level of play on that end of the court. Minnesota has surrendered 98.8 points per game compared to 104.8 points per game allowed over the Kings last five games. The Wolves also have the advantage on the offensive end of the court. They are averaging 105 points per game on the road, to 102.7 points per game at home from Sacramento. The disparity in scoring is even greater when you look at how these teams have performed offensively over their last five games too. This matchup fits into a system to play on teams like Minnesota that have covered the spread in four of more of their last six games, and they have won 40 to 49 percent of their games and are playing a bad team that has won 25 to 40 percent of its games on the year. This system has a very profitable record of 84-46 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Lay the points with the Wolves tonight because they should pick up an easy win. |
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03-01-14 | Long Beach State -4 v. Cal State Fullerton | 76-84 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on Long Beach State -
The oddsmakers have continuously undervalued the 49ers when playing on the road this season. Long Beach State has a 10-4 ATS record in road games this year, and they should improve on that number today against CS-Fullerton. The 49ers should also be the more motivated team in this game. A win over Fullerton will keep their chances alive to finish the regular season in first place in the Big West Conference. The 49ers have a very underrated defense. Against conference opponents they have surrendered a mere 64 points per game. The Titans on the other hand are surrendering 73.1 points per game against Big West opponents. It is a similar story on the offensive end of the court too. Long Beach State improves to 71.2 points per game against the conference while Fullerton regresses to 69.2 points per game. The Titans have benefited from a soft schedule this year, but their performance in the Big West is a good indication of how overrated they really are. You should play on road teams as a favorite or pick like Long Beach State when they have a +/- 3.5 point per game differential and are playing against a team with a -3.5 to -8.5 point per game differential after 15 or more games, and they are coming off a close win by three points or less. This system has resulted in a 57-25 (70%) record against the spread. |
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03-01-14 | Northern Arizona +12 v. Weber State | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
3* Bailout Blowout on Northern Arizona +
Weber State is getting too much credit from the oddsmakers in this Big Sky showdown with Northern Arizona tonight. The Lumberjacks managed to keep this game to within a single-digit margin in the first meeting of the season between these teams. The change in venue to Weber State's home court is not going to be enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for the Wildcats to cover the spread. The Lumberjacks have a very underrated defense this year. Their opponents have an offensive scoring average of almost 71 points per game and the Lumberjacks are allowing an even 70 points per game. Against conference opponents that number tightens up to 68.8 points per game allowed. I don't think Weber State is good enough offensively to score enough points on Northern Arizona's defense to cover a double-digit line today, and that makes the Lumberjacks a strong value play. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on road underdogs of 10 points or more like Northern Arizona when they are revenging a home loss against their opponent and playing their second road game in the last three days. This system has a 123-78 (61%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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03-01-14 | Oakland +5 v. Youngstown State | 87-81 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
4* Horizon League Game of the Week on Oakland +
The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are a much better team than their record indicates. The non-conference portion of the schedule was tough this season as the Grizzlies opened by playing three of their first four games on the road and against ranked teams. The Grizzlies have been playing much better against Horizon League opponents posting a matching record with Youngstown State of 6-9. Home court advantage will not be enough for Youngstown to pull off a six point win against this underrated Oakland team. The Penguins are surrendering an average of 72.9 points per game this season against opponents with an offensive scoring average of only 69.7 points per game. They are up against a Grizzlies team that is averaging 73.8 points per game on the year. Oakland already has one win over Youngstown State this season, and I think they will have a good chance to pull off the sweep over the Penguins today. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Golden Grizzlies. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Oakland after going over the total by 18 or more points in their last three games when they have won 20 to 40 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies road teams that are performing well offensively and are being undervalued by the oddsmakers. It has resulted in a 210-124 (63%) record against the spread. |
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03-01-14 | Davidson -3 v. Elon | 86-69 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Davidson -
This matchup has blowout written all over it. Davidson is a much better team than Elon, and it will show on the court today. The Wildcats are 14-1 against conference opponents this season, and 10-5 against the spread in those games. Elon on the other hand has a decent straight up record of 11-4 against the Southern Conference, but they are 7-8 against the spread in those games. The last time these teams met the game went to overtime and was played at Davidson. The Phoenix are the only team to hand the Wildcats a conference loss this season, so Davidson should be playing with plenty of motivation for revenge today. In that matchup Davidson shot well below their typical 47.5 percent from the field, while Elon shot over 50 percent from the field when they normally average closer to 46 percent shooting. That statistical anomaly is unlikely to repeat itself in this second meeting of the season. You should play on road favorites like Davidson when they are revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, when their opponent is coming off an upset loss as a favorite in their previous game. This system has a 66-31 (68%) record against the spread. It is a good way to identify matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the home team. |
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03-01-14 | Tennessee St. +13.5 v. Eastern Kentucky | Top | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
5* Ohio Valley Game of the Year on Tennessee State +
These teams may have vastly different records, but the Tigers have been playing just as well as the Colonels lately. Tennessee State has won its last two meetings, including a road win over Morehead State in their last outing. It is also worth nothing that the Tigers were listed as a double-digit underdog in that game. The Tigers have been continuously undervalued by the oddsmakers, which has led to a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Colonels are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a double-digit favorite. The biggest weakness for Eastern Kentucky this year has been a defense that is allowing a lot of uncontested shots. That has resulted in opponents making 48.4 percent of their attempts. The Colonels are allowing 70.1 points per game, and it will be extremely difficult to win by a double-digit margin with the defense giving up as many points as they have. Tennessee State has proved to be a great team to back on the road this season. They are 10-4 ATS in road games, while Eastern Kentucky is just 2-5 ATS at home. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against Eastern Kentucky. You should fade teams like the Colonels when they are a home favorite of 10 points or more and have won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season, and they are facing an opponent that has won 20 percent of their games or less. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the home team and it has led to a 279-182 (61%) record against the spread. |
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03-01-14 | California +4 v. Arizona State | 60-78 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on California +
This is a revenge game for the Golden Bears, and I like their chances to get that revenge after giving one away on their home court earlier this season. The last time these teams met the game went to overtime. The Cal players struggled to find the basket and were forced to play soft defense because of foul trouble. It took a near 48 percent shooting effort on three-point attempts for the Sun Devils to get to overtime and eventually win that game. Cal has several statistical advantages in this game. They have been the better ball control team this season with a mere 10 turnovers per game, to 12 turnovers per game from the Sun Devils. Cal is also the better rebounding team posting a +3 figure in rebounding margin, while the Sun Devils come into this matchup with a -2 figure in rebounding margin. The Sun Devils really struggle on the offensive glass, pulling in a mere seven offensive rebounds per game. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing road teams. You should play on road teams like Cal in a game involving two average defenses that are allowing 67-74 points per game when they are coming off a loss by 15 points or more. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 222-141 (61%) ATS record over the last five seasons. |
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03-01-14 | Colorado +6.5 v. Utah | 64-75 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Colorado +
The Buffaloes are the better team, and the fact that they are getting so many points is a good indication that the oddsmakers have overvalued Utah's home court advantage. Colorado comes into this matchup with a 20-8 overall record and a 9-6 record against Pac-12 opponents. Meanwhile, Utah is 18-9 overall and has a losing record of 7-8 against the Pac-12. Utah played a very soft non-conference schedule and it featured only one game being played on the road. That soft schedule has inflated Utah's record to make the team look better than they actually are when playing at home. When you separate the non-conference portion of the schedule from the Utes games against Pac-12 teams you can see just how mediocre Utah has been this year. Utah's scoring average drops from 78.4 points per game down to 71.2 points per game, and their defensive scoring increases from 64.3 points allowed to 67.9 points allowed against the Pac-12. The Utes are not a very physical team, and that bodes well for the Buffaloes in this matchup. Colorado is 31-15 ATS against teams that have been called for three or more fouls per game less than their opponents after 15 or more games on the season. The Buffaloes are also 25-13 ATS when coming off a game where they failed to coverage the spread. Since Colorado is on the road we will take the points, but they will have a good chance to win this game straight up today. |
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02-28-14 | Golden State Warriors -5.5 v. New York Knicks | Top | 126-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
5* Blowout Game of the Week on Warriors -
The New York Knicks are playing in an incredibly difficult spot tonight when they play host to the Golden State Warriors. New York was crushed last night by the Miami Heat, now they have to travel back home for the second half of a back-to-back to take on one of the hottest teams in the league. The Golden State Warriors have won four of their last five games coming into this matchup. The Knicks look like a team that has thrown in the towel on their season. They have lost 10 of their last 12 games, and they have surrendered 107 points per game over their last five games. The Warriors on the other hand have stepped things up on the defensive end of the court, allowing a mere 95.2 points per game over their last five games. Golden State has had no problem scoring this season with their 103 point per game scoring average, and against a soft defense like the Knicks that number can only get better tonight. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Golden State when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more, and they are playing against a poor defensive team that is allowing 98 to 102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system has cashed in a 56-23 (71%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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02-28-14 | Cornell +24 v. Harvard | 47-72 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 45 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Cornell +
Harvard is not the kind of team that is going to win in a 20+ point blowout very often. They are a smart team that likes to slow down on offense and setup plays. The fact that they are not a fast paced team is going to make it extremely difficult to have enough possessions to outscore Cornell by 25 or more points. This is the second meeting of the season between these teams. In that first meeting the Harvard Crimson managed to shoot 60 percent from the field. That is a feat that is extremely unlikely to take place again since the Big Red have allowed 60 percent shooting or more just one other time this season, and that other game was decided by a mere seven points. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Crimson. You should fade teams like Harvard when they are coming off three or more consecutive road wins, and they are a top level team that has won 80 percent or more of its games on the season. This system identifies teams that are playing in a letdown situation. It has resulted in a 26-9 (74%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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02-27-14 | Cal Poly SLO -3.5 v. UC-Davis | 73-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Cal Poly-SLO -
It is a Big West showdown when the Cal Poly Mustangs take on the UC Davis Aggies. The last time these teams met the Aggies picked up a four point win, but I think their fortunes will change in the second meeting of the season. In that first game UC Davis benefited from an absurdly good night of shooting from beyond the three point line, and that statistical anomaly is not likely to take place again. Cal Poly is a much better team defensively than the Aggies. The Mustangs have held opponents to a mere 64 points per game this season. Even with UC Davis shooting 10 percent better on three point attempts and making almost 50 percent of their shot attempts from the field, the Aggies were still held to just 62 points in that first meeting of the season. The Mustangs were also without one of their best players in that game with Kyle Odister out of action. Odister is expected to be in the lineup tonight. UC Davis is not a strong rebounding team, and I think that will be a big issue against the Poly's top notch defense. They cannot count on an absurdly great shooting performance in this matchup. UC Davis is 7-20 ATS in home games when coming off a performance with five or less offensive rebounds, and they are 12-31 at home when failing to cover the spread in their previous home game. |
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02-27-14 | UAB -6.5 v. Rice | 61-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on UAB -
We are getting a lot of value on the Blazers in this matchup thanks to a somewhat sluggish performance lately. UAB has lost four of its last seven games, but more importantly they have shown signs of turning a corner by winning three of their last four. Now they have the luxury of facing the worst team in the conference, and we get the benefit of laying a single-digit number in a game that should end in a blowout. Statistically this is a very lopsided matchup. Rice has a mere 2-11 record against conference opponents this season. They are averaging 63.2 points per game, and face a UAB team that has gone for 74.9 points per game this year. The Owls' offensive woes really stand out when you look at their performance against conference opponents. Rice is averaging just 60.1 points per game against the conference, and over their last five games that number has dipped all the way down to 56.6 points per game. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Owls. You should play against home underdogs like Rice when they are coming off a road loss, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a close road win decided by three points or less. This system identifies road teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 110-57 (66%) record against the spread. |
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02-27-14 | Murray State -6.5 v. Tennessee-Martin | 86-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Murray State -
Murray State is without a doubt the best team in the Ohio Valley, and they are on fire coming into tonight's matchup against Tennessee-Martin. The Racers have won seven of their last eight games, with the only loss during that stretch coming by a mere three points on the road against first in the East - Belmont. Tennessee-Martin is currently in last place in the West division of the conference. The biggest problem for the Skyhawks this season has been a complete lack of defense. They are allowing 81.1 points per game overall, and they have not received much of a home court advantage by still allowing 79.5 points per game. The Skyhawks are -6 in rebounding margin at home and will be severely outmatched on the boards against the Racers tonight. The last time these teams met Murray State picked up a 14-point win and a change in venue will not be enough to cut that margin in half. This matchup fits into a profitable system backing the Racers. You should play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Murray State when they are coming off three straight wins over conference rivals, and they are a good team winning 60 to 80 percent of their games and are playing a bad team winning 20 to 40 percent of their games. This system is 61-32 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons. |
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02-27-14 | Duquesne +15 v. St. Louis | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
5* Atlantic 10 Game of the Week on Duquesne +
This is way too many points for an underrated team like Duquesne to be receiving. The Dukes are averaging 73.5 points per game this season, which is more than the Billikens have averaged on their home court. St Louis has struggled to meet the oddsmakers absurdly high expectations recently, and I expect that to be the case again today. The Billikens have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games. St Louis will have an edge defensively, but I don't think it is enough to cover such a large spread. Six of the Billikens last eight games have been decided by a single-digit margin, and the competition does not get any easier against the Dukes tonight. Duquesne has a 7-2 ATS record when playing on the road, and they are 8-4 ATS against conference opponents this season. This matchup fits into a system to play against home favorites of 10 points or more after 10 or more consecutive wins. The system has a 170-123 (58%) ATS record over the last five seasons. You should also play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Duquesne when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 75 or more points and are coming off two covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system is 49-17 (71%) against the spread. |
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02-27-14 | Tenn Chattanooga +8 v. Western Carolina | 83-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Chattanooga +
Western Carolina has benefit from a fairly soft schedule this season, and I think they are clearly outmatched against Chattanooga tonight. The Catamounts are 8-30 ATS when playing against a team that has won 51 to 60 percent of its games after 15 or more games in the season. They are also 33-58 ATS when playing against any team with a winning record after 15 or more games. The Catamounts have been successful at home because of their ability to score a lot of points. Their defense is not good, but they average 79.5 points per game. They will not have the luxury of simply forcing the Mocs into a shootout in this game because Chattanooga is every bit as good on offense as the Catamounts. The Mocs are averaging just shy of 77 points per game this season. These teams are very even statistically, which is a good indication that this will be a very close game. In fact, it is a matchup that could easily be won by either team. Both teams average similar numbers in rebounding, turnovers and shooting percentage, with a slight edge actually going to the Mocs who are making almost 44 percent of their attempts from the field. I expect this game to be very close, with Chattanooga having a good opportunity to win straight up in the end. |
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02-27-14 | UNC-Charlotte +2.5 v. East Carolina | Top | 68-75 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
5* C-USA Game of the Month on Charlotte +
The wrong team is favored in this Conference USA showdown. The Charlotte 49ers are a much better team than their 14-12 record indicates, and I think we are getting a lot of value on today's line because of their recent slump. The East Carolina Pirates are the perfect opponent to end that recent slide. The Pirates are a not a team that gains a lot of benefit when playing at home. In fact, they have a 3-6 record against the spread in those games. They are not getting a big boost on the offensive end of the court, averaging 1.5 points per game more at home than they do overall. The Pirates are getting way too much credit because of their recent performances against Louisiana Tech and Rice. Tech was without their best player, and Rice is the worst team in the conference, so those wins should not buy a lot of credibility. This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the 49ers. You should play on road underdogs like Charlotte when they have failed to cover the spread in five or more of their last seven games, and they are facing an opponent that has covered the spread in four of their last five games. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have a tendency to overcompensate on the lines. It has resulted in a 164-95 (63%) ATS record over the last five seasons. |
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02-26-14 | Stanford +1.5 v. Arizona State | 64-76 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Stanford +
The wrong team appears to be favored in this matchup when the red hot Stanford Cardinal take on the Arizona State Sun Devils. Stanford has won five of its last six games and covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 games. The Sun Devils on the other hand come into this matchup having lost two in a row, and they they have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games. These teams have put up comparable numbers in points scored and points allowed, and they have very comparable records. However, Stanford is still the better team in this matchup. The Cardinal have a 3-1 record against ranked opponents this season, and they have proved to be the better rebounding team and ball control team. Stanford has allowed opponents a mere eight offensive rebounds per game, and they are committing just 11 turnovers per game. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils have allowed opponents double-digits in offensive rebounds and average 12 turnovers per game. Stanford is 8-1 ATS against teams averaging six or less steals per game after 15 or more games this season. They are also 8-2 ATS against teams committing less than 14 turnovers per game. Arizona State has struggled against good three point shooting teams. Stanford is knocking down just over 38 percent of their three point attempts, and the Sun Devils are 1-8 ATS against teams making over 37 percent of their three point attempts after 15 or more games in the season. |
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02-26-14 | Brooklyn Nets +3 v. Portland Trail Blazers | 80-124 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
3* Bailout Blowout on Brooklyn Nets +
Portland just played on the road in Denver last night, and now they will host the Nets in the second half of a back-to-back. Brooklyn is coming into this matchup with two full days of rest. The Nets have been playing extremely well recently, picking up wins in six of their last nine games while Portland has been struggling to hover around .500 for the past month. The Blazers have surrendered 103.8 points per game over their last five games. That should provide a nice scoring boost to the Nets tonight. Meanwhile, Brooklyn has been playing some outstanding defense recently allowing just 95 points per game over their last five games. Brooklyn is 13-2 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in the last 14 days. They are also 20-8 ATS in road games against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. Portland on the other hand comes into this matchup with a 15-29 ATS record over the last three seasons after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. |
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02-26-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Utah Jazz +2 | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +
The Phoenix Suns have played soft defense all season. They are allowing 101.9 points per game, and they should give up another big number tonight against the Jazz. The Suns were at home last night in a losing effort against Minnesota, and now they have to play in a back-to-back situation against a rested Jazz team that is coming off a confidence boosting win over Boston in their last outing. The Utah offense has been on fire recently. Over their last five games the Jazz have averaged 102.4 points per game. While nobody will confuse Utah for a great defensive team, their 100.3 points per game allowed at home is still an advantage over the defensive numbers Phoenix has put up, especially when you consider the fact that Utah's opponents have a slightly higher scoring average than the Suns have faced this year. This matchup fits into a profitable system to play on the Jazz. You should take home underdogs like Utah when they are well rested, playing five or less games in the last 14 days, and they have a losing record on the season. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the rested team, and it has resulted in a 49-27 (65%) ATS record over the last five seasons. |
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02-26-14 | California +12.5 v. Arizona | 59-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on California +
The Golden Bears picked up a two point win the last time they faced Arizona, and a change in venue is not enough to swing the outcome of this game by the amount of points it will take for Arizona to cover the spread. The oddsmakers have been giving the Wildcats far too much credit recently. Arizona has failed to cover the spread in six of its last nine games, and the Wildcats have two straight up losses during that stretch. The Golden Bears matchup well with Arizona, and that makes this double-digit line far too many points. Cal is a great rebounding team putting up comparable numbers to the Wildcats. The Golden Bears also have a slight advantage in turnovers, committing 10 per game while the Wildcats commit 11 turnovers per game. The Golden Bears have shown several times throughout the year that they are an underrated team defensively. They held the Wildcats to a mere 58 points in the first meeting of the season. This matchup fits into a system to fade the Wildcats. You should play against home teams like Arizona when they make 32 to 36.5 percent of their three point attempts and they are +6 or more in rebounding margin, when they are facing a team allowing 32 to 36.5 percent on three point attempts and are +3 to +6 in rebounding margin. This system identifies matchups where the home team is being overvalued, and it has resulted in an 83-40 (68%) record against the spread. |