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Jimmy Boyd Basketball Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-24-13 | New York Knicks -1 v. Boston Celtics | 89-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
3* HIGH ROLLER on New York Knicks -
Boston is struggling again and I don't see them getting out of their funk tonight against New York. The Celtics have lost four in a row and they were favored to win each of those games. The last two weren't even really close and those losses came to Detroit and Cleveland due to them shooting below 40% from the field. New York comes into this game well rested due to their trip last Thursday to London, and you know the Knick players have had this circled since the last time these two teams played on January 7th. That is when Kevin Garnett supposedly said some out of line thing to Carmelo, and I have a feeling New York is going to rally around their star tonight and give this Celtic team some payback. I'll lay the small number and roll with the Knicks. |
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01-24-13 | Austin Peay St +10.5 v. Jacksonville State | 74-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
3* on Austin Peay +
The public looks at this game and see a 12-7 Jackonsville State team at home against a 5-15 Austin Peay and immediately sides with the home team, but not so fast. The Governors have a great shot at upsetting the Gamecocks in this one. They are a solid three-point shooting team that hits 40.5% of their attempts from beyond the arc. The Gamecocks have done a good job of defending the three-point shot this year, but they haven't seen anyone who can shoot like this. The Gamecocks shoot just 42.5% from the floor and 30% at home from behind the arc, so I don't know how they are going to put up enough points in this one to cover a double digit spread. The Governors are coming off a pair of upset losses on their home floor, and I think the change of scenery does them well here tonight. Take the points in what should be a close game. |
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01-24-13 | Tennessee-Martin +5.5 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 56-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
5* CBB NO BRAINER on Tennessee-Martin +
I'll take the points here with the Skyhawks. Eastern Illinois is one of the worst defensive teams I have seen, allowing opponents to make 48.2% of their shots on the season. I know that Tennessee-Martin isn't going to set the nets on fire with how they shoot, but they should get some easy buckets tonight. I also like the fact that the Panthers slow the pace down so much with only 60 possessions per game. When you have a slow down team like this who allows such a hefty field goal percentage, the points are too good to pass up. Tennessee-Martin is 15-3 ATS against teams who average 53 or less shots per game the last three years while Eastern Illinois is 0-7 ATS against teams winning less than 40% of their games the last three, a big reason they are 1-12 ATS as a home favorite during that time. |
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01-24-13 | Georgia Southern +8 v. Appalachian State | 62-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
4* CBB VEGAS INSIDER on Georgia Southern +
Appalachian State is laying a few too many points here in this spot. Georgia Southern got caught taking a bad opponent lightly their last time out and lost at home by 15 points to the Citadel. They were favored by double digits and never really showed up. Those games are normally followed by hard work and attention to detail in practice, so I think they come back in a big way tonight. App State is off a couple of disappointing road losses in games that went down to the wire, but this team is going to have trouble blowing anyone out the way they play defense. The Mountaineers are allowing their opponents to shoot 46.7% on the year. I also like how the Eagles play at a slow pace. When you limit the number of possessions and you are getting this many points, it normally spells a cover. |
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01-24-13 | IUPU-Indianapolis +13 v. Oakland | 71-89 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
3* on Indiana-Purdue +
I like this matchup with Indiana-Purdue going on the road to take on Oakland. The Jaguars are a pretty good shooting team, especially from three-point range where they have hit 39.2% of their shots on the road. That's good because Oakland allows 40.3% 3-point shooting at home, and gives up about three more outside looks per game than their opponents average. Neither one of these two teams can play defense, but IUPUI is the better shooting team. Even though they don't get to the line as often, nor do they rebound as well, the better shooting team getting this many points is too good to pass up. A couple of systems support our play here on IUPUI tonight. One says to play against home teams off a conference loss as a favorite of six or more when they also have a losing record. This situation is 52-20 (72.2%) ATS over the last five years. Another solid situation is to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. These teams are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS the last five years. |
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01-23-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors +2 | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Golden State Warriors +
This is a tough situation for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Not only are they playing off a back-to-back, but they are coming off a big win over the LA Clippers, the team many think is their top competition for the Western Conference. Not only that, but they played an overtime game in Denver on Sunday and they will be playing their 7th game in 11 nights. The Warriors have looked tough in their last two games with Stephen Curry back at full strength. they played tough in San Antonio, then beat a hot Hornets team in New Orleans and then the Clippers. I don't think they are getting enough respect here tonight, especially with the rest situation factored in. I'll gladly take the Warriors in what should be an upset win. |
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01-23-13 | Washington State +11.5 v. Oregon | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
3* on Washington State +
This is a sandwich game for Oregon. The Ducks are off a big win at UCLA last Saturday and will head to Washington to face a Huskies team that is 4-1 in Pac-12 play this Saturday. In between is a Washington State squad that is just 1-4 in league play and 10-8 overall. The Cougars though will be out for revenge for what happened last year. They lost by nine points up here in Eugene and by 17 points at home to the Ducks. That means this team will be getting their full attention here today as they would like nothing more than to upset the conference leader. Washington State plays at a very slow methodical pace and will limit the possessions the Ducks have. With a low scoring game like that it's tough not to like a double digit underdog. You want to play against home favorites of double digits off a conference win playing against an opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. This play has gone 78-41 (65.5%) the last five years. You also want to fade double digit home favorites after seven or more straight wins when the team has won 80% or more of their games on the season. This situation has gone 199-127 (61%) the last five years. |
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01-23-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Houston Rockets -2 | 105-95 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
3* on Houston Rockets -
Houston ended their losing streak on Monday but they still haven't covered the last seven games. This has created some value here tonight as they should be laying more than a field goal on their home floor to the Denver Nuggets. Denver came into Houston earlier this year and upset the Rockets, I think these players will be out for revenge here tonight. Not only that, but the Rockets need a win here to make up some ground on Denver in the Western Conference playoff race. Denver is only 9-15 on the road this year as they have a significant home court advantage, but then struggle outside of Colorado. They are losing by 2.5 ppg, and this Rockets team is better than average. They have won at home by an average of 5.4 ppg this year while compiling a 14-7 record on their home floor. Lay the small number with confidence here tonight. |
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01-23-13 | Northern Illinois v. Central Michigan -8.5 | 74-61 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
3* on Central Michigan -
Northern Illinois has been awful on the road this year, going 1-8 but losing by more than 12 ppg. Central Michigan might not be a great team, but they are 5-1 at home and winning by more than 5 ppg. I like this matchup for the Chippewas. They do a good job of getting to the line and then converting their free throws, while the Huskies foul too much and send their opponents to the charity stripe. Central Michigan has trouble defending the three point shot, but that shouldn't be a problem with Northern Illinois making only 27.$ of their long range attempts this year. On the other hand, Central Michigan likes to take three's and with Northern Illinois giving up 37.3% from behind the arc they should get a lot of open looks. Northern Illinois is struggling lately, losing eight of their last nine and they are coming off a 37 point beating at home versus Western Michigan. CMU on the other hand should be high on confidence after beating Ball State by 14 on Saturday. They have covered nine of their last 11, and they cash again at the pay window for us here tonight. |
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01-23-13 | Pennsylvania +17.5 v. Temple | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
4* HEAVY HITTER on Penn +
This is a classic look ahead spot for Temple here today. Saturday this team goes to Butler to take on the Bulldogs, so I don't think their full attention is going to be on the a Penn team who checks into this game with a 3-14 record. Penn might not be very good, but they had done a decent job of covering the spread. They played Butler to a 13 point game and Princeton to 12 with both of those games coming on the road. Temple has been favored by double digits six times so far this year and has only covered the large spread one time. They aren't good at running away from teams, even those as bad as the Quakers. I'll take the large number here in what should not be a blowout game. A bunch of situations back our play here today. The first says to fade double digit favorites who win more than 60% of their games against teams winning less than 20%. These teams have gone 264-173 (60.4%) ATS since 1997. On the other hand you want to take road, double digit underdogs after a loss by 15 points or more against an opponent coming off a game in which both teams combined for 155 or more points. These teams are 118-67 (63.8%) the last five seasons. |
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01-23-13 | Penn State +25.5 v. Indiana | 49-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
4* CBB NO BRAINER on Penn State +
Penn State is not a good team while Indiana is one of the best in the nation, but they don't have any business getting this many points. They only lost to the Badgers in Wisconsin by nine points, and lost by nine to Michigan State. They already faced the Hoosiers once this year and while they lost by 23, you can't expect Indiana to keep the pedal to the medal much more than that here today. The Hoosiers have Michigan State on deck, so when this team gets a lead I expect them to make sure their guys get plenty of rest, and not show the Spartans anything new. This is a classic look passed situation, and the Nittany Lions take advantage with a cover. A lot of systems back our play here tonight. You want to play against favorites of 10 points or more who score 78+ ppg against a team scoring less than 63 ppg during the second half of the season, when the team allowed 60 or less last time out. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5%) since 1997. You also want to play against home favorites of 20+ points after a win over a conference foe. These teams are 84-40 (67.7%) ATS the last five years. You want to take underdogs of 20 or more points revenging a home loss against an opponent as this situation is 99-44 (69.2%) over the last five seasons. |
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01-23-13 | Wright State v. Youngstown State -3 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
5* NO DOUBT BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -
Wright State is a good team but they should be getting more points in this situation. This team is coming off a tough stretch, they played Saturday against a good Valparaiso team and only lost by six, then came back on Monday and won at Detroit. However, this will be their third game in five days, which is a rare occurrence for college basketball's regular season. Youngstown State had several days to prepare so they should be more ready for this one. People will look at Wright State's 14-5 record against Youngstown's 10-8 and cringe, but looking at the margin of victory you will see 5.4 ppg for Wright and 4.5 ppg for Youngstown, so these teams are closer than you think. Add in the rest factor and the home court advantage and this team should be laying six plus. |
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01-22-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers | 109-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma City +
This is a tough spot for the Clippers as they are playing their third game in four nights and coming off a back-to-back against Golden State. They have not covered in two straight games now, playing Washington close Saturday and losing by seven to the Warriors. Oklahoma City is also coming off a loss, but they've had a day to recover from the hard fought game against the Nuggets. The Thunder have now scored 117 or more points in three straight games, so their offense should be fully clicking as they take on the Clippers. You should also take road teams that are outscoring opponents by more than six points per game after scoring 105 or more in three straight games. These teams are 116-71 (62%) since 1996. The Thunder won earlier in the year at home by a score of 117-111 and that sets us up for a nice situation tonight. You want to play against any team with a line of less than three that is revenging a loss against an opponent off a home loss. This system is 217-142 (60.4%) over the last five seasons. You also want to go against home favorite revenging a home loss where an opponent scored 110+ points when playing on back-to-back days. This system is 54-24 (69.2%) over the last five seasons. |
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01-22-13 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
3* HIGH ROLLER on Milwaukee Bucks -
Philadelphia is not a very good road team as they are just 6-14 away from home this year, scoring 90.1 ppg while allowing 95.9. They are playing a back-to-back in a tough spot, where they took on a very good San Antonio team and had the game in hand late, but fell apart to give the Spurs the victory. Milwaukee on the other hand has been playing well lately, winning their last two games and covering both on the road. The Bucks have won five of seven with Boylan coaching them. The Bucks also went into Philadelphia earlier this year and won by nine points. This sets us up for a nice situation here tonight where you want to play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9 points who are revering an upset loss off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. This system is 98-49 (66.7%) ATS since 1996. |
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01-22-13 | Michigan State v. Wisconsin -5.5 | 49-47 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
3* VEGAS INSIDER on Wisconsin -
Wisconsin is going to come into this game determined to pick up the win after losing in Iowa City to the Hawkeyes on Saturday. They got off to a bad start and dug themselves a hole they couldn't get out of, but Iowa is better than most people realize this year. Michigan State on the other hand is off an emotional win against Ohio State and it's tough for teams to get up for back-to-back games against good teams like that. Couple that with the fact that the Spartans then head to Indiana next to face the Hoosiers and you can see why their attention might wander a little more than the Badgers. The Badgers are 114-83 ATS as a home favorite and 58-38 ATS at home after four straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997. The Badgers also get up for these big games, going 33-17 ATS at home against a team winning more than 80% of their games. I like Wisconsin to win in a big way here tonight. |
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01-21-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Chicago Bulls | 83-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NBA NO DOUBT ROUT on Chicago Bulls -
The Lakers are a good team to fade right now. They are back to full strength but this team just isn't a juggernaut like everyone thought they were going to be. LA finally got Gasol back on Thursday and lost to the Heat, then went up to Toronto and couldn't beat the Raptors. Now they travel down to face a Chicago team that has been playing well. The Bulls have won three of four with their only loss being at home to Memphis on Saturday, but that was a tough spot off a one point win in Boston the night before. Chicago is only allowing 89.1 ppg at home this season while the Lakers are giving up 107 ppg on the road. Chicago has the ability to shut down the Lake Show, especially with their troubles getting in sync offensively. I think this one is a Bull blowout. |
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01-21-13 | Texas v. Oklahoma -7 | 67-73 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
4* BIG 12 ATS BLOWOUT on Oklahoma -7
Texas is not a very good team as evidenced by their 8-9 record and 1-7 mark away from Austin. The Longhorns are getting outscored by 8.5 ppg on the road and are 0-4 in the conference. Texas played Kansas tough at home on Saturday and will be in a little bit of a letdown spot here today as they ended up losing that game due to a poor second half. Oklahoma should be a hungry for a win after losing at Kansas State. That loss was the Sooners first in the conference as they had previously blew out West Virginia on the road, then Oklahoma State and Texas Tech at home. The Sooners lost twice to the Longhorns last year, so don't think they aren't join to come out blazing against their long-time rivals who are down this year. I see this one being a blowout. |
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01-21-13 | Houston Rockets -6.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | 100-94 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Houston Rockets -
So the Rockets have not looked good here lately. They have played six of their last seven games on the road, and the only home contest was against the LA Clippers. It's not really a surprise they have put together a seven game losing streak both straight up and against the spread with that kind schedule and I think it has opened up some value on Houston here in a good spot. Charlotte is terrible. They are only 10-30 on the year and 5-16 at home. This team is getting outscored by an average of 8.3 ppg and they have lost six of their last seven. There isn't a better team for Houston to get back on track against than Charlotte, and they should do so in BLOWOUT fashion on Monday. Houston is a PERFECT 8-0 ATS against teams shooting less than 43% with a defense that allows 46% or more the last three years. The Bobcats are just 4-18 ATS against teams who shoot more than 83 times per game the last two seasons and 2-12 ATS at home against teams who attempt 18 or more 3's per game. |
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01-20-13 | Drake +10 v. Northern Iowa | 55-85 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
3* CBB HIGH ROLLER on Drake +10
There isn't much home court advantage for Northern Iowa here today as the Bulldogs have to make a short two hour drive across the Hawkeye State to take on the Panthers and I think the double digits is going to be too much to pass up in this rivalry game. Northern Iowa is coming off a tough loss at Creighton and will be in a little bit of a letdown situation here against Drake. They beat the Bulldogs easily both times they played last year and that typically leads to both line inflation for us and overconfidence for the players. Drake isn't a great team by any means, but they have been playing well in winning two straight. They beat a pretty good Evansville team last time out, the same team that beat UNI up in Cedar Falls two week s ago. Drake also won at Illinois State as an 11.5 point underdog last Saturday, so this team has to be pretty confident in what they are doing, but don't think they haven't circled this game as one they want in a bad way. Both due to the double digit losses last year and because of the in-state rivalry. |
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01-19-13 | Washington Wizards v. Los Angeles Clippers -13.5 | 87-94 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
4* NBA BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on Clippers -
I'm siding with the Clippers here today. Washington has been playing great lately winning four of their last five and covering five straight. Last night they fought hard to come back against the Denver Nuggets, but that actually works against them Saturday as they have to pack up and fly to LA after that tough win. The Clippers on the other hand jus keep rolling. They are coming off another double digit win on Thursday, this time by 13 points in Minnesota. That made it three straight road wins and covers after the team lost at home to Orlando last Sunday. The Clippers are going to want to put on a good show for the home fans after that embarrassing loss last weekend. LA is averaging a 12.2 margin of victory on their home floor, scoring 104.5 ppg and giving up just 92.3. Washington on the other hand is averaging a 11 point margin of loss on the road, scoring just 84.6 ppg while giving up 95.6 ppg. Since these two teams are at the extremes in talent level, I would think each succeeds those numbers by quite a few points here tonight. Last year these two teams played twice in February and the Clippers won by 18 points at home and 26 points on the road. I don't see them having much trouble with Washington here tonight either. |
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01-19-13 | SIU Edwardsville +16 v. Murray State | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
4* HEAVY HITTER on SIU Edwardsville +
The Cougars are a hot team right now that have won two straight games as an underdog. Murray State played well last time out, but had failed to cover the last three times they were favored by double digits. These teams have played Austin Peay and Eastern Kentucky this year. Murray State beat Austin Peay by three while they lost Eastern Kentucky by 12. Edwardsville on the other had beat Peay by 13 on the road and only lost to E. Kentucky by six on the road. You want to play against home double digit favorites who average more than 74 ppg against teams scoring 63 or less ppg. This system has gone 76-40 ATS over the last five seasons. You also want to take road underdogs off an upset win when they have won less than 40% of their games on the season. These teams are 165-105 ATS over the last five years. |
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01-19-13 | Coll Of Charleston +10 v. Davidson | 68-77 | Win | 101 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
3* on College of Charleston +
College of Charleston is getting some value here since they are off an upset loss as a favorite while Davidson is off a 32 point win over the Citadel, but the prior game Davidson had also lost the Georgia Southern on the road, except as a 13 point favorite and it was by 13 instead of only four. Against common opponents both teams are 3-1, the Wildcats winning by 13 ppg while the Cougars are winning by 8 ppg. Davidson might be the better team, but this is too many points for them to be laying against a decent team who lost last time out probably due to looking ahead to this contest. A great system supports our play today that says to take double digit underdogs off an upset loss as a favorite playing on only a day's rest. These teams are 146-92 ATS since 1997. |
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01-19-13 | Ball State v. Central Michigan -5.5 | 57-71 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
3* on Central Michigan -
The Chippewas got smoked last year in both games against Ball State, so I think this team is going to come ready to play on Saturday. Central Michigan does a good job of getting to the line, shooting seven more free throws per game at home than their opponents give up, while the Cardinals are allowing opponents to shoot three more free throws per game than their average. Ball State is 1-8 ATS off a road loss the last two years and 40-61 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games. Central Michigan has been playing pretty solid this year, covering in four of their last five and eight of 10. they have played tough against some good teams and should take advantage of a soft opponent here today. |
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01-19-13 | Louisiana-Lafayette +17.5 v. Middle Tenn. St. | 60-82 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
3* on Louisiana-Lafayette +
I'm going to ride Louisiana-Lafayette this afternoon as they look to revenge an early season loss at home to Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders have struggled to put teams away lately. Before they covered last time out against Arkansas-Little Rock they had lost four in a row at the pay window. That was their first double digit win of 2013 and it was over the leader of the East division of the Sun Belt, so it was pretty big for them, putting them into a letdown spot for today. A couple of systems help support our play today. Play against double digit favorites off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival when playing an opponent off a conference loss by double digits. This system is 72-36 ATS the last five years. You also want to take double digit underdogs with a losing record who are revering a home loss against an opponent. This situation is 480-346 ATS the last five years. |
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01-19-13 | South Dakota +11.5 v. Oakland | 97-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
4* ODDS MAKERS ERROR on South Dakota +
I went against Oakland last time out when they played UMKC and I'm going to continue to do so until the odds makers stop overvaluing them. These two have six games against common opponents and both are 3-3, but Oakland is winning by 3.5 ppg compared to 2.5 ppg for South Dakota. The Golden Grizzlies are allowing 49.2% from the field while South Dakota is an above average shooting team. Both of these teams get to the free throw line, but Oakland fouls more than usual while the Coyotes rarely put the opposition on the line. This is a lot of points and I'll gladly take them today. A nice system supports our play today that say to fade double digit favorites off a no-cover as a win as a favorite when that team has won between 40-50% of their games. This situation is 33-12 ATS since 1997. If the team they are playing has a losing record that number jumps to 25-8 ATS. |
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01-19-13 | Arkansas-Little Rock +8 v. Western Kentucky | 59-54 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
3* on Arkansas Little-Rock +
Arkansas Little-Rock had been playing well until getting embarrassed last time out against Middle Tennessee State while Western Kentucky on the other hand was struggling, losing both straight up and against the spread in three straight games before blowing out Lafayette by 23 points. This has led to some value on the Trojans here today. Arkansas LR already won earlier today at home as a two point underdog so they know they can pull off the upset again today. Western Kentucky is 5-0 against common opponents and wining by 11 ppg, but Ark-Little Rock is 4-2 themselves and winning by 7 ppg. The value here is with the underdog so take the points. Arkansas Little-Rock is 16-7 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last two years and 14-5 ATS against teams that allow 42% or less. Plus, they are 6-0 ATS after a blowout loss by 20 points or more the last three years and 11-2 ATS after scoring 60 or less points in their last game. |
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01-19-13 | St Bonaventure +12 v. Temple | 81-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
3* on St. Bonaventure +
The Bonnies haven't played good lately, losing six straight games. The last time out they lost to Xavier at home by two as a 2.5 point favorite, but that doesn't look bad when you see Temple lost by five at Xavier a week ago. Against common opponents Temple is +0.5 ppg while the Bonnies are -4.5. Not great, but not good enough to justify this double digit spread. Temple beat St. Bonaventure by six on the road last year, so you can bet the Bonnies will be out for revenge here today. The Owls are only shooting 40.6% and 30% from behind the 3-point line. You don't cover too many big spreads if you can't shoot at a high rate. You want to play against double digit favorites off a road win by 3 points or less when they have a winning record and are playing a team with a losing one. This system is 62-31 over the last three seasons. You also want to take road double digit dogs off an upset loss against a conference rival against an opponent off a conference win. This spot is 75-40 ATS the last five years. |
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01-18-13 | Fairfield +6 v. Iona | 73-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
3* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Fairfield +
Fairfield has struggled in losing three games in a row, and that has created some value with them here tonight. They haven't lost any of those games by more than five points, so they are playing their opponents tough and doing so with a stifling defense that gives up just 61.6 ppg. Iona on the other hand has won five in a row, but they haven't lived up to the expectations in covering only once in their last four games. These two teams are fairly evenly matched, and the 5.5 points is a little too much of a home court advantage. I'll take the underdog here tonight. A couple of systems support our play here tonight that says to take teams who allow 63 or less PPG against teams allowing more than 74 after a loss by six points or less. This situation is 60-28 ATS the past five seasons. You also want to take road underdogs off an upset loss to a conference rival at home against an opponent off a home win. These teams are 84-50 ATS the last five years. |
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01-18-13 | Sacramento Kings +9.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
4* HEAVY HITTER on Sacramento Kings +
This is a tough spot for the Memphis Grizzlies. They have played a couple of tough games in a row over the past week wight eh Spurs, Mavs, Clippers, and Spurs again. They beat San Antonio by three the first time around, but then lost the next three and all by more than 20 points. Sure, they were playing good teams but getting beat that badly shakes one's confidence. Even with a short break tonight, Memphis then has to play Chicago, Indiana, and Brooklyn in their next three games coming up, setting this team up for both a letdown and a look ahead. The Kings might not be very good, but they have won two straight. Of course it was against Cleveland and Washington so it was to be expected. Sacramento has now lost six straight against the spread, so they haven't exactly been playing well either, but this is a young team that will be motivated by just winning the last two games. Memphis isn't a team that blows out their opponents, winning by an average of less than five at home. The Kings have lost by less than 10 ppg on the road this year, so I see a lot of value in taking the points here tonight. A couple of situations support our play here that say to fade home teams after scoring 85 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 163-103 (61.3%) since 1996. You also want to take teams winning less than 40% of their games after being beaten by 18+ points combined against the spread in their last three games when hey are double digit underdogs. These teams are 44-18 ATS the last five seasons. |
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01-17-13 | Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 | 99-90 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
3* NBA MAIN EVENT on Lakers -
The LA Lakers are starting to look like themselves all of a sudden. Sure, their lsat two opponents were the Cavs and the Bucks, not exactly top tier teams. When a team beats a team they should you have to look at by how many and the Lakers won both in impressive fashion. It's no surprise that getting Dwight Howard back gave this team a boost, and now word is Pau Gasol is going to play tonight against the Heat. Since LA is just 5-8 without Gasol this year, I think he'll give them a real boost down low, especially since Miami lacks front court depth behind Chris Bosh. Miami won in impressive fashion at Golden State last night, but the team has been struggling against top tier teams. They lost at Utah, at Portland, at Indiana, and at home against Chicago to start the 2013 year. Some would argue that the Lakers aren't a top tier team with a sub. 500 record, but they have top tier talent that will go all out on a Thursday night TNT game. The Heat are just 4-12 ATS after playing as a road favorite. |
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01-17-13 | Gonzaga v. Portland +16.5 | 71-49 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
4* PUBLIC BLOOD BATH on Portland +
I know a lot of people will see Gonzaga's 16-1 record playing a Portland team that is sub. 500 and scoff, but this is a great situation for Portland. First off, you know they are going to be up for this game since they are playing the Zags, one of the perennial league favorites. Plus, they actually played well against them last year, losing by only 12 points at home when Gonzaga was a 15-point favorite. They actually led at half by a score of 29-25. However, don't think that will mean Gonzaga gets up for this game the Pilots. They are coming off a big win over St. Mary's last Thursday night and even though they had a long rest, I think that game will have taken a lot out of them. Plus, this team plays on Saturday at Butler in a game they have to be looking forward to. Portland isn't a threat to win the West Coast, but they went on the road in all three games to open up conference play and did sneak out a victory over Loyola-Marymount as a 5.5 underdog, and were at least in the other two games. I think the win last time out boosted their confidence and puts them in a solid position to play the Zags tough tonight. A solid system supports our play that says to play against double digit favorites after six or more straight wins when they are on 5 or 6 days rest. This system has gone 159-104 (60.5%) since 1997. Gonzaga is all 0-6 ATS on the road after three straight West Coast games the last two seasons and 17-32 ATS after scoring 80 or more in a win over a conference rival. |
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01-17-13 | Georgia Tech +16.5 v. Duke | 57-73 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
3* on Georgia Tech +
Duke is coming off their first loss of the season, so the public will look at that and think they are motivated to win big in their next game. However, teams coming off of a loss to break a double digit win streak in BCS conferences are just 35-43 ATS the next time out. If they are favored that record drops to 27-36 ATS, and if they are favored by double digits it's 12-18 (40%). Georgia Tech has gotten off to a rough start in ACC play, losing three in a row, including by 13 to Miami, 13 at NC State, and five at home to Virginia. The Yellow Jackets aren't a great team, but when you are getting double digits you don't have to be great to cover. A couple of systems support our play that say to take double digit road underdogs after they were beaten by 30 ore more points against the spread the last three games, in January. These teams are 109-58 ATS (65.3%) since 1997. |
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01-17-13 | Oregon State +14.5 v. UCLA | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
3* on Oregon State +
This is a look ahead spot for UCLA as they will face Oregon on Saturday and Arizona next Thursday, and those are the two teams the Bruins have to worry about in the Pac-12, not the 10-6 Beavers who have lost their first three conference games by double digits. I like how these teams matchup too. Oregon State main problem in the Pac-12 has been rebounding, but the Bruins aren't necessarily a good rebounding team. Both teams rarely foul, but both do a good job of drawing fouls. Plus, both squads play pretty solid on the defensive end of the floor, so this game should be somewhat low scoring and not a shootout. I think the odds makers have over-adjusted this line a bit, since the Bruins haven't beat anyone by more than 13 points in a month and have been playing close games even against teams they should have beat easily. A solid system supporting our play says to play against double digit favorites after nine or more straight wins. This system is 196-119 (62.2%) over the last five years. You also want to play on road underdogs off two straight double digit home losses when playing a team with two straight conference wins. This situation is 41-12 (77.4%) since 1997. |
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01-17-13 | Utah State +5 v. New Mexico State | 51-64 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
4* HIGH ROLLER on Utah State +
I normally don't love teams that have played weak schedules, but Utah State has gone 14-1 on the year, so at least they have taken care of business. Plus, they are 5-0 in the conference and winning by 10 ppg, while New Mexico State is just 4-2 in conference play, having won by an average of only .5. Against common opponents both teams are 4-0, but Utah State's margin of victory is 11 to New Mexico State's 8. Plus, you have to think Utah State wants some revenge for what happened to them last year. Both games in this matchup were double digit losses, the first was on the road by 20 points and the second was at home by 11. Sure, Utah State has struggled at the pay window lately, winning their last three games at home easily but not covering double digit point spreads. I think this team was coasting until they faced New Mexico State in their first real WAC test, so I'll gladly take the points here tonight. A solid system we like says to play against home favorites of 3.5-9.5 points that make four or less three point shots per game. This system has gone 96-52 (64.9%) over the last five years. |
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01-17-13 | Louisiana-Monroe +11 v. South Alabama | 56-71 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
3* on Louisiana-Monroe +
I think you are going to see the UL-Monroe Warhawks get some payback over South Alabama here tonight. Nobody likes this team because they have a terrible record and have averaged losing by double digits, but they have played a tough schedule against teams like Florida State and UAB. This team has been playing better lately and has covered six of their last seven games. South Alabama looks better than they are and this line reflects too much of what the score was in the first game and not so much what really happened. The Jaguars won 77-70, but they shot 59.1% in that game and reached the foul line 16 more times than the Warhawks. The foul situation is going to even itself out a little more this time. LA-Monroe had a blip around the turn of the year when they allowed North Texas, S. Alabama, and Florida Atlantic to shoot lights out against them but they have tightened up their defense the last two games, and played solid on that end of the floor prior to the UAB game, so it was an aberration. South Alabama also pulled one out of a hat last time in shooting so well. They have shot 27.4%, 37%, 40.5%, and 28.1% in the four other games they have played since Christmas. A solid system supports our play that says to take double digit underdogs revering a home loss v. an opponent. This system has gone 758-549 ATS over the last five seasons. We can tighten it up when that underdog is off two straight conference losses and the system is 248-162 ATS (60.5%). |
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01-17-13 | UMKC +13 v. Oakland | 68-81 | Push | 0 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
4* HEAVY HITTER on UMKC + over Oakland
It's hard to believe that a 7-12 Oakland team is laying this many points, even if UMKC is only 5-13 on the year and 3-6 on the road. Last year they were favored by 14.5 in this spot and only managed to win by 13, and that team was a little better than this year's edition. Plus, Oakland is only 4-14 ATS as a home double digit favorite since 1997. What is scaring bettors off is how Oakland went into Kansas City last February and put a 33 point beating down on the Kangaroos. However, I think that will serve as motivation here tonight. They shot 61.1% in that game and even shot 52% the previous game against Utah Valley State. This team has some confidence and should do well against an Oakland squad allowing opponents to hit 49.3% of their shots on the season. UMKC had lost nine in a row before upsetting South Dakota as an 8-point underdog last time out, but that sets us up in a nice spot. A solid system says to take road underdogs who are off an upset win as an underdog when they have won less than 40% of their games on the season. This situation has gone 162-103 (61.1%) over the last five years. However, If you tighten the system up to double digit road underdogs off an upset win as a road underdog this system goes to 56-25 (69.1%). |
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01-16-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers +7 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 93-88 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA NO LIMIT on Cleveland Cavs +
Cleveland has had a tough little road trip but I think they will play tough against Portland on Wednesday night. We are getting some value here because Cleveland has lost the first three games of their West Coast swing, but the Cavs have already faced the Blazers once this season and lost by a single point at home back on December 1st. The trouble with Portland is that they are playing on back-to-back nights, but they haven't really played well lately either. The Blazers lost at Golden State and at home to the Thunder the last two games. As I write this they are playing the Nuggets tough, but that game is being played in Denver. Tonight they will have to travel back to Portland, crossing nearly 1,200 miles and a time zone to play a bad team on Wednesday night. So, not only is the rest situation not working in Portland's favor, but they are also going to be in a letdown spot. Portland and Denver are battling it out for the second spot behind Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division and the Blazers currently sit only a half game up on Utah for the 8th and final playoff spot. They will have spent everything they have trying to win in Denver to get an edge in the standings and in any tiebreaker situation late in the year. Playing a non-conference team that is 9-31 isn't going to be high priority after that. Take the points with the Cavs tonight as heach coach Terry Stotts is just 66-93 ATS against teams with a losing record. |
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01-16-13 | Seton Hall +9 v. Marquette | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
3* on Seton Hall +
Marquette has looked good to start Big East Play and that has created some value in this line here tonight. The Golden Eagles have won five straight with wins over UConn, Georgetown, and at Pitt in conference play. However, I think they will have their hands full tonight trying to beat the Pirates by double digits. Seton Hall has struggled in losing their last three Big East games, but those came at Notre Dame, v. Louisville, and the disappointing loss at home to Providence. This team should be ready to bounce back from that upset loss with a strong showing against an over-rated Marquette squad. The Pirates shoot 47.6% from the floor on the road and allow just 40.8% so they should be able to hang with a Marquette team that shoots 46.7% and allows 40.6%. Both teams do a good job of getting to the foul line, both are capable on the glass, and neither has a real advantage creating turnovers. These two teams are a lot closer in skill than the oddsmakers think, so I'll gladly take the big number. A solid system backing our play says to play against teams off two straight conference wins against teams off consecutive double digit losses at home. This system is 52-22 (70.3%) since 1997. |
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01-16-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 | 97-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
4* HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma City Thunder -
Denver is coming off a tough divisional game last night in which they took the Portland Trailblazers to overtime before coming out on top. Now they have to take to the road to take on the best team in the West, and I think this number is a little short of what I expected since this will be the Nuggets third game in four nights. Denver is hot right now winning six in a row, but the Nuggets are just 9-14 on the road this year, losing by 1.5 ppg. The Thunder on the other hand are 18-3 at home, winning by more than 11 ppg. Oklahoma City has won four in a row, the last three of which came on the road. They have this game at home before kicking off a six game road trip so they know they need a good showing before the tough stretch ahead. |
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01-16-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Boston Celtics -7 | 90-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
3* on Boston Celtics -
The Hornets have been an awful 6-13 on the road this year, losing by 4 ppg while Boston is 13-6 at home winning by 4.5 ppg. The public is jumping on this New Orleans team now that they have won five of their last six games both straight up and against the spread, but Boston is just as hot since Avery Bradley returned to the lineup, winning their last six straight up and five of those at the pay window. New Orleans is coming off a nice win last night in Philadelphia, but this will be their third game in four nights. The Celtics on the other hand have only played once since last Friday, so the veterans have had plenty of time to get their legs back under them. These two teams played at the beginning of the season last year, and New Orleans won at home by 19. Don't think for a second this Celtic group doesn't remember that and they will be out to prove a point tonight. |
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01-16-13 | Georgia +13.5 v. Missouri | 62-79 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
3* on Georgia +
The Bulldogs have not looked good their last two times out and that has given us some value with them here tonight. Georgia has lost two straight against the spread after suffering a 33 point loss at Florida and a double digit loss at home as a 7.5 point favorite over Mississippi State. I expect them to rebound here tonight against a Missouri team coming off a disappointing loss of their own at Ole Miss in which they only managed to score 49 points. This is a solid matchup for Georgia as both teams play well on the defensive side of the floor, so with a lower scoring game getting this many points is a gift. Georgia does a good job of getting to the line this year shooting three more free throws per game than their opponents normally allow. The Bulldogs have also been solid on the glass, which should negate the Tigers advantage this year with their offensive rebounding. Georgia is 6-0 ATS on the road after an upset loss as a favorite the last three years while Missouri is 6-17 ATS after scoring 55 points or less since 1997. |
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01-16-13 | South Carolina +10 v. LSU | 82-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
3* on South Carolina +
South Carolina got off to a rough start to the year, but had won five games in a row entering SEC play. Their first game at Mississippi State they only lost by two, covering the spread. They followed that up with an upset loss at home to Auburn due to the fact they allowed the Tigers to shoot 58.5%. LSU hasn't been shooting well so I don't think they will be able to take advantage of the Gamecocks defensive struggles. They shot 37.3% v. Auburn and 32.3% at Florida. LSU went on the road and pulled the upset win over the Gamecocks last year, so this South Carolina team is out for a sort of double revenge. They were favored in their loss to Auburn, and last year in this matchup. This team will come out motivated and should keep it within single digits. |
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01-16-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Atlanta Hawks -4 | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
3* on Atlanta Hawks -
Atlanta was embarrassed in Chicago the other night, only putting up 58 points in the 39 point loss. Now Atlanta has dropped six of their last seven both straight up and at the pay window, and it has given us some value with this team tonight. Brooklyn is coming off a tough divisional game against the Raptors last night so they are on short rest playing their third game in four nights. They have won nine of 10 since PJ took over the reigns, but that has just inflated their value here tonight. The Hawks are 12-6 at home while the Nets are 8-8 on the road. The odds makers are over-adjusting on this one so take advantage. |
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01-16-13 | Fordham +14 v. Charlotte U | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
3* on Fordham +
Fordham isn't a good team but they check into this game after a pair of covers. They beat Duquense and played a decent UMass team tough at home, covering both games. Charlotte doesn't force a lot of turnovers and the Rams do a good job on the offensive glass, so they should get plenty of opportunities to score tonight. Charlotte is also playing well, having beat three straight teams by eight or more points since their loss to Florida State back on 12/22. However, a large favorite who has covered two straight is a good fade situation. A solid system backs our play here that says to fade double digit favorites who have covered two straight when they have won 80% or more of their games on the year, facing a team with a losing record. This play has gone 76-39 (66.1%) over the last five seasons. I'll take the double digits. |
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01-16-13 | Chicago Bulls -3 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 107-105 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA NO BRAINER on Chicago Bulls -
The Toronto Raptors are in a tough spot on Wednesday night as they will be flying from Brooklyn back home to face the Chicago Bulls. Toronto not only has to fly back home, but they are coming off a hard fought divisional game against the Nets. The Bulls are a tough matchup for Toronto because they do a good job of getting to the line, and they convert 79% of their free throw attempts. Toronto allows their opponents who average only 22 attempts per game to get to the line 27 times a contest against them, so expect Chicago to pile on some easy points Wednesday. Chicago's head coach Tom Thibodeau called out his players before the Atlanta game, saying their weren't putting for the effort the liked on defense. What did the Bulls do? They held Atlanta to just 58 points on Monday. If you don't think that carries over think again. Teams that have held opponents to less than 65 points are 52-39 ATS the following game. Toronto even played Chicago in this situation last March and Chicago went into Toronto and won by 12 points as 7.5 point favorite, holding Toronto to just 82 points. Thibodeau is 25-10 ATS on the road after a home win in Chicago and the Bulls are 22-11 ATS as a road favorite the last two years. I'll take Chicago as I think they win big up north. |
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01-16-13 | Providence +7.5 v. Georgetown | 65-74 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
3* on Providence +
Providence has played a tough schedule to start the Big East season, having to go to Louisville and Seton Hall while hosting Syracuse and DePaul. It's no surprise they have won only one of those games, but it does raise an eyebrow the game came last time out against Seton Hall and not at home against DePaul. However, finally ending the five game losing streak and winning a conference game should give them some confidence tonight against the Hoyas. Georgetown has a big win back in early December over Texas, but the Longhorns have disappointed this year. They did play tough at Marquette but got embarrassed by 28 at home against Pitt. They haven't played as tough of a schedule as the Friars, which is why their stats look a little better. I wouldn't expect this game to be very high scoring as Georgetown allows just 55.4 ppg while Providence gives up 62.2. Neither team excels offensively, but the Friars do have a little more firepower on that end of the floor than the Hoyas do. With points at a premium tonight, I'll take a decent size underdog to win. |
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01-15-13 | Indiana Pacers -7.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 103-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
5* NO LIMIT on Indiana Pacers -
Indiana had been rolling along, winning four in a row and 10 of their last 12 before a loss in Brooklyn on Sunday. They are going to want to right the ship tonight against the Bobcats, a team they just beat on Saturday night at home by eight points. There is plenty of value in this one as well since Indiana hasn't covered their last four times out. The Bobcats are going to have a tough time putting up points since they only average 95.5 ppg and Indiana is holding their foes to just 89.3 not he year. Indiana on the other hand should be able to get things going as the Bobcats allow 103.6 ppg. Back in early November Indiana traveled to Charlotte and lost by a single point. You can bet that point has been hammered home to them and they will come out hungry from the opening tip, and pull away fast. Indiana needs to take advantage of soft spots in their schedule to make up for their slow start, and they do that tonight. The Bobcats are 17-34 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last two seasons and 14-28 ATS at a home underdog. |
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01-15-13 | Notre Dame -6 v. St. Johns | 63-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on Notre Dame -
The Irish have to come into this game with a chip on their shoulders after losing at home to UConn on Saturday. The loss was only Notre Dame's second of the season so you can bet they didn't like how that game tasted. Plus, ND will be out for revenge against St. John's here tonight after dropping their last two in New York, including a 3-point defeat last year as 6.5 point favorites. Notre Dame is solid on both end's of the floor. They are scoring 75.6 ppg against teams allowing 66.3 and giving up just 61.1 against teams who normally put up 68.4. Both teams have played decent schedules, but Notre Dame has wins over BYU, Kentucky, and Purdue on their resume while nothing stands out to me for St. John's. The Red Storm have lost two in a row at home, first to Rutgers as 3.5 point favorites and then Saturday Georgetown took it to them by 16 points. St. John's is 39-59 ATS at home after a loss since 1997 and 2-9 ATS after two straight games of scoring 65 points or less the last two years. I'm going with the Irish tonight. |
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01-14-13 | Elon +1.5 v. Western Carolina | 80-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on Elon +1.5
Elon had been playing solid basketball to end the 2012 calendar year but have gotten off to a slow start in 2013, losing two straight. However, this is a team that played Duke tough for awhile and even beat South Carolina on the road by 12 points as a 7.5 point underdog. The Catamounts have won three in a row which is important because it sets them up for a spot they have not done well in in the past. West Caroina is just 35-54 ATS when coming off a win against a conference rival and 14-29 ATS at home after a win since 1997. This is a short trip for the Phoenix so I don't think there is much in the way of home court advantage for West Carolina tonight. Elon is the better team and should pull off the upset in what is an important game in Southern Conference action. |
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01-13-13 | Arizona St +9.5 v. Oregon | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
4* BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on Arizona State +
Oregon knocked off Arizona in what was a great game Thursday night and I think that has set them up for a bit of a letdown tonight. The Wildcat win is fresh in the public's mind so the odds makers had to adjust this line by a point or so to compensate, plus these players have to be feeling pretty a little over-confident after knocking off one of the last remaining unbeatens. Arizona State on the other hand is a solid basketball team that will give the Ducks a run for their money. They have won six in a row and covered all but one of those games. The Sun Devils went up to Oregon State on Thursday and beat the Beavers as five point underdogs, and I think they will surprise Oregon tonight as well. Last year Oregon won as an underdog at Arizona State by 9 points. Sun Devils are going to be out for a little payback here today. |
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01-12-13 | San Francisco +14 v. Saint Marys CA | Top | 72-78 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
5* BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on San Francisco +
The St. Mary's Gaels are in a letdown spot here today as they take on the 7-9 Dons of San Francisco. On Thursday night the Gaels went up to Gonzaga and played the Zags tough, losing by only five points. Not only will they have trouble getting up for the Dons after such an emotional win, the next game on the schedule sees them take on another strong team in BYU. San Francisco is better than their record indicates. Sure, they have lost three in a row, but two of those games they covered against tough teams in BYU and at Santa Clara. the Dons also have covers against Ole Miss and St. John's, so they have played teams tough that have more talent than them. St. Mary's has put up impressive numbers by beating up cupcakes this year. Gonzaga was their first real test and while they played well, they will probably think things go back to normal as they get a sub. 500 team on Saturday. Too bad for them the Dons will come ready to play and keep this one tight. Solid system that says to take double digit underdogs off an upset loss as a favorite on one day or less of rest. These teams have gone 137-86 (61.4%) since 1997. |
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01-12-13 | Murray State v. Austin Peay St +10.5 | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
3* MONEY MAKER on Austin Peay +
There is no doubt who the better team here is as Murray State comes in at 11-4 and Austin Peay at 5-12, but there is plenty of value in the home dog on Saturday. Murray State is coming off a tough loss by 12 points at home to E Kentucky, a team they were favored by nine points over. They have now failed to cover in four of their last five games as the Racers are consistently over-valued by odds makers. Austin Peay had lost either in a row before Wednesday's win over Morehead State, but their previous three losses had been by a total of two points. They are playing competitive and should be able to hang with a Murray State team that has to be looking past a team they beat by double digits twice last year. |
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01-12-13 | Phoenix Suns v. Chicago Bulls -8.5 | 97-81 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
4* NO DOUBT ROUT on Chicago Bulls -
The Suns are a dreadful 2-17 on the road this year losing by 11.5 ppg so I don't think this number is quite high enough. Last night Phoenix played the Brooklyn Nets tough in the first half and then were absolutely blown out in the 2nd, losing the game by 20. Now they have to travel to Chicago for a quick turnaround against a Bulls team that took it to New York last night. Both of these teams are playing their third game in four nights, but for Phoenix it will actually be their fourth in five. Plus this is the last game of a four game road trip that has not gone very well, so I imagine the players will be anxious to get back home. The Bulls have now won four of their last five games. The Bulls beat the Suns by six earlier in the year in Phoenix, so I see another blowout on the horizon tonight as they host the Suns. Phoenix is 19-32 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent the last two seasons and Chicago is 22-9 ATS playing their 3rd game in four days. |
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01-12-13 | Utah Jazz v. Detroit Pistons -2 | 90-87 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on Detroit Pistons -
Both of these teams are off back-to-backs, but a couple of things point in the Pistons favor here today. The first is that they blew Milwaukee out 103-87 so they didn't have to bring the intensity late. Utah was leading or competitive for most of the game with the Hawks so they spent a little more energy in last night's game. The other is that Detroit had four days off coming into the game and will be playing only their fourth game of 2013, so they have had plenty of rest. Utah will be playing their 7th game since the turn of the year and third in four nights. The Jazz are a decent team but they are terrible on the road, going just 8-15 and being outscored by 5+ ppg. Hard to believe they are only getting tow points against a Detroit team that is beating opponents by 3.4 ppg at home and has now won seven of nine and give of their last six games. The Pistons are 16-5 ATS at home against teams who make 36% or more of their three point shot attempts. The Jazz are 22-34 ATS on the road and 8-22 ATS after two or more non-conference games the past three seasons. |
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01-12-13 | IUPU Ft Wayne +12 v. South Dakota State | 57-83 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
3* HIGH ROLLER on IUPU-Ft Wayne +
You might look at Wayne's 8-10 record and scoff, but this team has actually outscored their opponents by 2 ppg on the year so they are better than you think. They have played pretty well as the calendar turned to 2013 as well, beating Navy by five and crushing Nebraska-Omaha by 18 before losing as a 15 point underdog to North Dakota State by 12. South Dakota State has struggled a little bit the last two times out, losing outright as an 11 point favorite to their in-state rivals in South Dakota, then not covering as an 8 point favorite over Oakland. Last year South Dakota State went into Fort Wayne and won by 31 points, that has created a little bit of value for us here tonight. A system that supports our play here today says to take road underdogs of 10+ points who are coming off a double digit blowout loss when the other team is coming off a high scoring game of 155 points or more. These teams are 175-114 (60.6%) over the last five seasons. |
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01-12-13 | Illinois-Chicago +6 v. Wisc-Green Bay | 47-53 | Push | 0 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
4* HEAVY HITTER on Illinois-Chicago +
The Flames are the better team so I'll gladly take them getting so many points here today. Illinois-Chicago is 10-6 on the season and beating teams by 4.7 ppg. They are winning with their defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 39% from the floor and score 58.6 ppg. The outside shot has been impossible to make against the Flames as they are allow just 29.9% from 3-point range. Last year the Phoenix went into Chicago and won by eight so I'm expecting a little payback today. Illinois-Chicago has struggled a little lately, losing some close games to conference foes. I think this rough patch has the team focused to pick up an important win here today. |
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01-12-13 | Houston v. Southern Mississippi -12.5 | 54-73 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
4* DOUBLE DIGIT BLOODBATH on Southern Miss -
Southern Miss started off Conference USA action with a bang, going down to Rice and winning by 23 points as 12 point favorites on Wednesday. They should be plenty of confident for this showdown with Houston as they now have shot 50% or better in six of their last seven games and are coming off a 69.6% performance Wednesday. Houston has won seven straight games but they have played a laughable schedule to date. This will be the toughest team they have faced yet and will find it difficult to score against a Southern MIss defense that is allowing only 51.8 ppg at home on 35.7% shooting. The Cougars do shoot 39.5% from beyond the arc, but that number has dipped to 27.7% on the road and shouldn't get much better facing a Golden Eagle defense allowing opponents to make just 29.5% of their 3-point attempts. |
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01-11-13 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Golden State Warriors -7.5 | 97-103 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NO DOUBT ROUT on Golden State Warriors -
This is a good matchup for the Warriors to get back on track after losing two straight games to the Clippers and Grizzlies. Portland comes into this one fresh off last night's win over the Miami Heat. The Blazers put everything they had into that game, as most teams do, so it's going to be difficult for them to play on no rest down in Oakland. Portland shoots four more 3-point shots a game than their opponents normally allow, so they will have trouble against a Golden State team allowing just 30% from beyond the arc at Oracle Arena. The Warriors are shooting 47% at home while Portland allows 47.3% on the road. In comparison, Golden State is giving up just 42.1% at home while Portland is shooting 42.4% outside of Oregon. Don't be afraid to lay the points with the home chalk here tonight. |
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01-11-13 | San Jose St +10 v. Utah State | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
3* VEGAS INSIDER on San Jose State +
I like how San Jose State matches up with Utah State here tonight. The Aggies have won 12 straight games so you have to give them some respect, but they haven't really taken down anyone tough yet. The Spartans haven't either, but they did go into Kansas and only lose by 13 points, so I think they can keep this one to single digits. The key is the Spartan defense, which is allowing opponents to shot just 39.3% from the floor and has held three of their last five opponents to less than 36%. Utah State has been efficient on the offensive side of the ball all year, but has slowed down in their last two games shooting only 43.1% and 41.5% in games they won but didn't cover. They also allowed their last two opponents to shoot 48.3% and 46.4% from the field. How did they win those games? Rebounding and winning the turnover battle. The problem is that San Jose State is good at both of those areas too. Utah State looks like the better team on paper, but I'll take the Spartans plus the big number here tonight and hope their defense comes to play. |
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01-11-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5 v. New Orleans Hornets | 92-104 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on Minnesota Timberwolves +
New Orleans has played well over the past week and it has created a little bit of value here for us tonight. The Hornets have won three straight and their last two were particularly impressive over San Antonio and Houston since they held those teams to 88 and 79 points, respectively. Minnesota is coming off an ugly 22 point loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday, but the Thunder are one of the best teams in the league and were out for blood after getting blown out themselves the game before. The Wolves were without Kevin Love, who re-injured his hand and will be out for a couple of months. However, that loss isn't as significant as I think is reflected in this line since Love wasn't really himself this year. He was shooting terribly and only putting up significant numbers due to the volume of shots he was taking. Sure, they will miss some of his rebounding but this team has done a pretty good job this year even without him producing like his normal self. The Wolves won in New Orleans back on 12/14 by a score of 113-102 and were 4.5 point favorites. Now they are getting two points which is an over-reaction to how the Hornets have played recently and the loss of Kevin Love. Take the visitors and the points tonight. |
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01-11-13 | Chicago Bulls +5 v. New York Knicks | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
3* HIGH ROLLER on Chicago Bulls +
These two teams have already played twice this year and Chicago has beaten New York both times. The Bulls won at home back on 12/8 by a score of 93-85 and then followed that up with a win in the Big Apple on 12/21 by a score of 110-106. I think they have a good shot at making it three straight here tonight. The Bulls have been a solid road team this year, going 9-5 compared to 10-9 at home and have one two straight away from the United Center after beating Miami and Orlando last week. Chicago will be focused for this one after losing to Milwaukee on Tuesday night, but the Bucks were an energized bunch playing their second game without previous head coach Scott Skiles. Chicago is 58-39 ATS on the road the last three seasons including 10-1 ATS on Friday nights. Teams normally bounce back after getting upset at home, and I think Chicago will do just that tonight. |
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01-10-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. Sacramento Kings -2 | 117-112 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on Sacramento Kings -
The Sacramento Kings will be out for revenge against the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night as back on 12/10 Dallas put a beatdown on them 119-96 in which they led 65-43 at the half. Sacramento has also lost back to back games by 20+ points so you know they got down to business over their last two days off. Before those two games Sacramento had to be flying high (and losing to Brooklyn and Memphis isn't a cause for concern by itself). They had covered in eight of the previous nine games and had even beaten teams like Golden State, Portland, New York, and Boston. Dallas is coming off a tough game last night in which they played the LA Clippers tough. It's going to be tough to bring the energy on back-to-back nights, especially as Dirk works his way back into game shape. The Mavs have lost four in a row and 10 of their last 11, with their only win coming against the Wizards. Take the Kings tonight. |
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01-10-13 | San Diego +6.5 v. San Francisco | 70-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
3* HIGH ROLLER on San Diego +
San Diego hasn't had much luck playing away from home this year but I think that changes tonight. Even though they don't have the best road record, their last four games have all been competitive compared to expectations. San Francisco has played some good teams this year and played them tough, and that should help them in the conference schedule but it also has them a little over-valued in this one. They played BYU tough at home and Santa Clara tough on the road, but this team lost five straight games heading into Christmas day and a lot of them weren't even close. San Francisco relies on the 3-point shot and they shoot well from the perimeter, but San Diego has defended the outside shot well all year long. I think this game is a nail biter so will gladly take the six points here today. San Francisco is just 19-37 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less since 1997. |
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01-10-13 | UCLA v. Utah +5.5 | 57-53 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
3* PAC-12 POWER PLAY on Utah + over UCLA
Utah is still being undervalued from last year's terrible season, but this squad has improved and has been a money maker at the pay window going 9-2 ATS. They have played three pretty good teams in BYU, Arizona State, and Arizona and while they lost all three, it was only by a total of seven points when the odds had them as a combined 40 point underdogs in those games. Plus, they were all on the road and they get the Bruins at home. UCLA has won seven in a row and is now 12-3 on the year, but the Utes are 50-31 ATS at home when playing a team with a record above 60% and 14-3 ATS at home when playing a team with a 80%+ mark. They haven't played a true road game yet, but have yet to cover on a neutral floor, losing to Georgetown by 8, beating Georgia by 4 as 12 point favorites, losing to San Diego State by 9, and only beating Texas by 2 as 6.5 point favorites. The value is with the home underdog here tonight. |
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01-10-13 | Northern Arizona +4.5 v. Eastern Washington | 59-82 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
3* VEGAS INSIDER on Northern Arizona+
Northern Arizona has a bad record and a bad margin of defeat, but that is largely due to playing some stiff competition on the road. This team lost by 43 at Arizona, 47 at Colorado and by 30 at BYU. Obviously Eastern Washington is nowhere near the class of those three teams. This squad has been pretty competitive outside of those three teams so I think they are under-valued in this spot. The Eagles have been struggling lately, losing six of their last seven games both SU and at the pay window. Their only cover was last time out when they lost by two as a three point dog to Montana State, a team N. Arizona beat by seven in the middle of December. Eastern Washington is 5-14 ATS after two or more straight losses the past three seasons. Eastern Washington is 0-3 against common opponents so far this season, losing by 13 ppg. Northern Arizona on the other hand has gone 2-1. They are the better team and getting five points is too many for them, even with this game on the road. |
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01-09-13 | Valparaiso -2.5 v. Illinois-Chicago | 75-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NO DOUBT ROUT on Valparaiso -
Why is a 10-5 team getting points to an 11-5 team at home? Because Valpo isn't just winning they are blowing out their opponents with a 9.2 margin of victory compared to 5.2 for Illinois-Chicago. Both of these teams have been solid on the defensive end of the floor, but Valpo's edge comes on offense where they are shooting almost 7% higher from the floor than the Flames. The other edge that I like with the Crusaders is with rebounding. This team is pulling down seven more boards per game than their opponents while the Flames are actually getting out rebounded on the season. Valpo has won the last six games in this series and took Ill-Chicago down by five on the road last year. I think they win by a similar amount here tonight. |
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01-09-13 | Phoenix Suns v. Boston Celtics -8.5 | 79-87 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on Celtics -
The Suns are playing back-to-back off a tightly contested game with the Milwaukee Bucks last night. Phoenix led at half but had a meltdown after the break to lose by 9. Is it shocking that the Celtics have won three games in a row? Avery Bradley returned four games ago and this team once again is bringing it on the defensive end of the floor. They have allowed 96 points in New York, 81 v. Atlanta, and 75 against the Pacers in their last three games and it's due in large part to getting their best defender back from injury. Boston won in New York without Rondo on Monday night, but he has served his suspension and will be on the floor tonight. Boston isn't going to take any game lightly, even though this is a non-conference game being played in January. They stand at 17-17 and know that every game is important if they want a high seed come playoff time. Phoenix is allowing teams to shoot 47.2% against them this year while Boston is shooting 48% at home. With the Suns losing by an average of 10 ppg on the road this year, I see another double digit loss in their future because right now Boston is at full strength and at full strength they are an above average team. |
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01-09-13 | North Carolina-Wilmington +8 v. James Madison | 50-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
3* BLUE CHIP SPECIAL on UNC Wilmington +
These two teams are a little more evenly matched than most people think, but Wilmington has played eight road games so far this season and has yet to win one. That might sound bad, but they actually covered their last five away from home so they are playing tough as a visitor. James Madison has had a tough stretch here lately. They have lost two games in a row, but they are actually in the strange situation you don't see very often in college basketball of playing their third game in five nights. They haven't had much of a chance to prepare for tonight's opponent. The Seahawks have struggled on offense this year in scoring just 61 ppg, but James Madison allows their opponents to shoot 45%. I think this is the game they get back on track and pick up a road win. |
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01-09-13 | Western Michigan +14 v. Akron | 43-65 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on Western Michigan +
This is a pretty good matchup for the Broncos to be catching 14 points in. Akron is definitely a good team who scores efficiently and plays pretty good defense, but don't sleep on Western Michigan. They have played the tougher schedule to date and have came out looking pretty good at 8-5. There are two things I love about this underdog. The first is they get to the foul line at a high rate. The team shoots four more three throws a game than their opponents give up, while Akron allows two more free throws per game than their opponents normally take. The other is rebounding. They are dominating the boards against their opponents by nearly 9 more per game. Akron's rebounding numbers are impressive too, but when they shoot at a higher rate that their opponents that is going naturally be the case (defensive boards are easier to grab than offensive.) The Broncos have wins over South Florida and Oakland. They have been beat up pretty bad by Michigan and NC State, but those two teams are a lot better than the Zips. I don't see Akron winning this game in a rout so I'll gladly take the points. |
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01-09-13 | Toledo +8.5 v. Kent State | 70-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
3* HIGH ROLLER on Toledo +
When a 4-7 team is playing a 9-5 team you know the public is going to be on the favorite, but a closer look at these two teams makes me think this line is a little high here tonight. The Rockets are actually being outscored by only a point a game and five of their seven losses have been by six points or less. This team has only played three home games on the year, so they are at least tested to be competitive when taking to the road. Kent State on the other hand isn't all that impressive. Sure they have won four games in a row and their last win on 1/2 over Cleveland State is worthy of taking note, but the other three teams they beat were St. Francis, Arkansas State, and Fairmont State. The last two they beat by a total of six points. I expect Toledo to get to the line a lot tonight and when they do the Rockets shoot 76.6% as a team. They average three more free throw attempts than their opponents normally tie up and Kent gives up three more than their opponents normally take. Roll the dog. |
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01-08-13 | Northeastern +5.5 v. Drexel | 63-58 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on Northeastern +
Northeastern has done a good job in CAA action the last few years but there is one team they have struggled with: Drexel. Last year they lost at home by 8 points and by 18 on the road. Those two losses made it six straight in the series, and I think this Northeastern team is going to be out to take advantage of a Drexel team that isn't as good as the odds makers think. Senior co-captain Jonathan Lee missed the first nine games of the season with a foot injury but returned to the lineup for the last five games. This team has seen a boost with his return as Lee has posted double figures in each of those games. He is doing it all and I think this line is based off of how the team has looked in the season as a whole, instead of with one of their best players in the lineup. Another key to this game will be how often Northeastern can get to the line. They are averaging 21 free throws per game against teams allowing only 19, while Drexel is allowing opponents to shoot 21 per game who average only 19. I like teams who can get to the line and convert and Northeastern fits the bill as they shoot 73.5% from the charity stripe. This is a live dog who has a real chance to win outright on Tuesday. A couple of systems support our play tonight that say to fade a home team off a conference loss as a favorite of six or more if they have a losing record on the year. This system is 48-19 (71.6%) the last five years. Drexel is also 0-7 ATS as a favorite this season and 2-9 ATS the last two years against teams who foul less than 17 times per game. |
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01-08-13 | Appalachian State +8 v. Wofford | 50-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show | |
3* HIGH ROLLER on Appalachian State +
Wofford is one of the worst offensive teams around, putting up just 58.9 ppg on 38.6% shooting, but they are excellent on the defensive end of the floor holding teams to 59.6 ppg. How do they do it? By holding opponents to just 30.2% from the 3-point line and by cleaning up the boards. App State though does not shoot a lot of three pointers so I'm not as concerned about the perimeter defense. Instead I'm looking at a team that scores 72.6 ppg against opponents who allow 72 and see an above average offense who can outscore a team that struggles to produce points. These two teams enter this game in completely different directions. Wofford has played a tough schedule and lost big to Virginia and Tulane. While losses were expected losing by 35 and 14 can deflate your confidence. They haven't shot better than 36.2% in their last three games so it's not like they can be confident shooting the ball. App State on the other hand played a couple of bunnies the last two times out in Presbyterian and Milligan, but took care of the first by eight and the latter by 20. I'll take the points with the confident team here tonight. A couple of systems support our play that say to take road underdogs of more than 3.5 points off two or more straight wins who have won less than 40% of their games on the year. This system is 50-22 (69.4%) the last five seasons. App State is also 12-4 ATS the last two years against teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game. |
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01-07-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. New Orleans Hornets +8 | 88-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
3* High Roller on Hornets +8 over Spurs
New Orleans has played San Antonio twice this year and have kept it close both time. The first was in New Orleans back on 10/31 where the Spurs won 99-95, then the Hornets traveled to San Antonio on 12/21 and dropped the game 94-99. That should give the team plenty of confidence they can hang with one of the best teams in the league. San Antonio has been a covering machine lately, cashing tickets in six of their last eight. We rode them over Philadelphia on Saturday to revenge their loss to New York, but this could be a little bit of a look past situation with the Lakers and Grizzlies on deck. New Orleans should have some confidence after winning in Dallas on Saturday night and they are in a good spot. The Hornets are 24-12 ATS revering a same season loss and 33-18 ATS as an underdog of between 3.5-9.5 points the last two seasons. |
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01-07-13 | Georgia State v. Hofstra +5 | 50-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
3* Heavy Hitter on Hofstra +5 over Georgia State
Hofstra hasn't played since January 1st so they have had plenty of time to prepare for this game against Georgia State. You know that they worked hard this week in practice as they are out for revenge against a team that beat them by 16 points on their home floor last year and by 35 points in the first round of the CAA Tournament in March. Neither one of these teams is very good, the Pride have lost eight in a row and five of six at the pay window while Georgia State broke a five game losing streak with a win over James Madison on Saturday. It was the first time in seven tries they had covered as a favorite this year. I'll take the points with the home dog who will be out for revenge in this one. |
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01-05-13 | Golden State Warriors +6 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 89-115 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
5* Pacific Division Game of the Year on the Warriors +6 over the Clippers
Golden State beat the Clippers the first time around by a final score of 114-110 so this team should be confident they can go into LA and do it again tonight. Add in the fact that Golden State just beat them on Wednesday night at home and you can see why we like the matchup. Some might consider the Clippers as motivated to revenge the early season loss, but that is more of a myth than reality in the NBA. In fact, teams with a winning record that are favorites of 3.5-9.5 points revenging two straight losses where opponents put up 100 or more are just 42-78 ATS the last 5 seasons. There aren't many teams playing better than the Warriors right now and they are doing it against some stiff competition. They blew out the Bobcats back on 12/21 at home, then took the Lakers to the wire in Steve Nash's return to the lineup. A four game winning streak quickly followed with an 11 point win in Utah, a 7 point win over the Sixers, 18 points over the Celtics, and the 21 point beating they handed the Clippers. LA is struggling after their long winning streak, losing by 14 at Denver and by 21 at Golden State. They have to play their cross town rival Lakers on Friday night and you know they are going to go all out for that game on ESPN. Don't plan on them having this game circled against the Warriors tonight even with Golden State beating up on them a few days ago. This is a tough spot for the Clippers. This will be the team's fourth game in five nights and seventh in their last ten. The rest situation is brutal for LA right now as they haven't had more than one day off since 12/12. The Warriors take advantage and cover here tonight. |
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01-05-13 | Philadelphia 76ers v. San Antonio Spurs -13 | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on San Antonio -12.5 over Philadelphia
Look for the Spurs to bounce back at home tonight against Philadelphia. Teams that are outscoring their opponents by 3+ ppg usually come back strong after a blowout loss of 15 points or more, going 110-67 ATS over the last five seasons. San Antonio is outscoring opponents by 8.2 ppg and is coming off a 17 point loss to the Knicks on Thurday night. This is a tough spot for the Sixers as they are playing their fourth game in five nights. They had to play in Oklahoma City last night and played the Thunder pretty tough in the first half before running out of gas in the second. This is the final game of a eight game road trip before the team gets a couple of days off leading into a home game against Brooklyn. If a team is ever looking to get home it happens after a stretch like this, especially when the team has only managed two wins so far during the trip. The Spurs should jump out early and stay ahead by double digits most of the game. |
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01-05-13 | Sacramento Kings +7.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | 93-113 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
3* High Roller on Sacramento Kings +7.5 over New Jersey Nets
I'm going against the Nets who are off a back-to-back and to compound matters went into double OT last night with the Washington Wizards, one of the worst teams in the league. This forced Lopez, Williams, and Johnson to all play more than 44 minutes, which should give the stars some tired legs for this one tonight. This is New Jersey's eight game in 12 games, so not a good time to be coming off a double overtime game the night before. The Kings are off an impressive 105-96 win in Toronto in which they led by 19 going into the fourth quarter, so even though they are on a back-to-back they should be a little more rested as none of their guys played more than 35 minutes. Sacramento has now covered in five straight and in eight of their last nine. I think the odds makers continue to discount how much this team has improved lately and I'll go with them again here tonight. |
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01-05-13 | Towson +9.5 v. Drexel | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Towson +9.5
Drexel put a beating on Towson last year at home by a score of 60-27, but these two teams have been heading in different directions ever since. Drexel has been hurt by the injury to Chris Fouch, who broke his ankle in the Penn game, the team is just 3-11 ATS since he's been out of the lineup. Towson has pulled off ATS wins in four of their last five games. It all started when they played at Georgetown and nearly pulled off the upset, then played Temple tough next time out. Their last two lined games came at Oregon State and at UNC-Wilmington were they pulled off upset wins. You can't sleep on this team as everyone remembers their one win from a year ago and assumes they are still one of the worst in college basketball. They aren't and they are going to want to make a statement here today against a conference rival. A solid system backs our play that says to take double digit road underdogs who are off an upset win as a road underdog if they still have a losing record on the season. Since Towson is 6-8 they fit this system that is 54-23 over the last five years. |
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01-05-13 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -2.5 | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
3* High Roller on Kansas State -2.5
Oklahoma State has only played one true road game all year long and that was a loss at Virginia Tech by 10 points. The Cowboys are also coming off a home loss to Gonzaga. Their impressive wins came in the middle of November against Tennessee and NC State but haven't done much to impress since. Kansas State is playing well under new coach Bruce Weber. Their only two losses were on neutral floors to Michigan and Gonzaga. This team did pull a nice win off over Florida a few weeks ago and I like how they are defending and rebounding the basketball. I think Kansas State is the better team and should be laying four to five at home here today. I"ll lay the small number. |
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01-04-13 | Manhattan v. St. Peters -3 | 55-53 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
3* CBB Heavy Hitter on St. Peter's -3 over Manhattan
Neither one of these teams is going to be mistake as good, but I think St. Peter's is better plus they get the home court advantage. Manhattan is just 3-9 on the year and 1-8 on the road. They are scoring just 56.7 ppg against teams that allow 66.4 while shooting 38.8% from the floor. They have played a tougher schedule than St. Peter's but at 3-9 they have only won as favorites of 6 points or more. You know that St. Peter's is going to be out for revenge in this game. Manhattan beat them up pretty bad twice last year, including by 22 points here on their home floor and by 26 points the first time around. Both teams played Long Island just a few short weeks ago. Manhattan lost by a score of 48-75 while the Peacocks won 80-67. Two of the Jaspers best players are dealing with ankle injuries. George Beamon has missed six in a row and is averaging 16.8 ppg this year and Michael Alvarado was sidelined for most of the last game, also with an ankle injury. Without Beamon the team only has one win and that was over Siena. |
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01-03-13 | No. Colorado +13 v. Weber State | 54-79 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
3* Public Blood Bath on Northern Colorado +13 over Weber State
Weber State has looked pretty good this year while Northern Colorado has not. A close look at the schedule though shows that the Bears have played the tougher schedule so things might not be quite as bad as they seem. Weber State has six wins in their last seven games and is coming off a 110-45 beating of Southwest. The other teams they beat are E Washington, Portland State, Utah Valley State, and UC-Irvine. Those really aren't that impressive of wins to me, but what it does do is create a few points of value in the ugly underdog. Favorites of 10 or more points off a 20+ win are just 82-41 ATS the last five seasons when playing a team the is coming off an upset loss as a favorite. Take the points here tonight. |
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01-03-13 | Colorado +11.5 v. Arizona | 83-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
3* Marquee Mismatch on Colorado +11.5
A lot of points for Arizona to be laying a pretty good Colorado team tonight. The Buffaloes have surprised me a little bit with their 10-2 start, beating some decent teams like Dayton, Baylor, and Murray State on neutral floors and Fresno State on the road. They do have one ugly 36 point loss to Kansas that I think gives us a couple of points of value here with this line. Most bettors will look at Arizona and Kansas as comparable, see what Colorado do as an 11 point underdog in Lawrence, and run towards the chalk. Arizona is in a tough spot though. They haven't played since Christmas day, which might create a little rust for their offense. It's always tough coming off the extended layoff on the defensive end too, because no matter how much conditioning you do in practice, being in "game shape" is another story altogether. Colorado knows they can hang with the wildcats, they beat Arizona twice last season. Once was in Boulder, but the other came in the Pac-12 tournament. I'll take the points here in this one. |
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01-03-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. New York Knicks -1 | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
4* Main Event Major on Knicks -1 over Spurs
It's always tough going against a hot team like San Antonio and taking a team that is struggling like the Knicks, but that has opened up some value in the line here tonight. The Spurs have strung together seven straight victories and have covered the spread in five of their last six. New York on the other hand has lost three of their last four and covered only once in their last six games. However, this team knows that they can hang with San Antonio, they already did so back on 11/15 when they visited the Spurs and came away with a four point win. The Spurs have had a fairly brutal schedule here lately as this is their sixth game in nine nights. I think the fatigue starts to catch up with them as they fall in New York. Solid situation supporting our play on New York says take home teams of between +3/-3 that are off an upset loss as a favorite who have a winning percentage of above 60%. These teams are 81-43 ATS since 1996. Plus, the Knicks are 23-10 ATS at home as a favorite of six points or less the last three years. |
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01-03-13 | Louisiana-Lafayette +2 v. Florida Atlantic | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
3* False Favorite on Louisiana Lafayette +2 over Florida Atlantic
The average bettors looks at this game and sees a team with a worse record getting only two points on the road and is all over Florida Atlantic. However, Lafayette actually has a better scoring margin and has played a tougher schedule. Plus, Lafayette has owned this series as of late. Last year they won by 12 points at home as 2.5 point underdogs and two years ago they went to Florida Atlantic and won by 8 points as double digit underdogs. Mike Jarvis is the coach of Florida Atlantic and he is just 16-31 ATS since arriving in the role of a favorite while Lafayette is 49-28 ATS when going on the road playing a team with a losing record. They win the games they know they have a chance in. |
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01-02-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Houston Rockets -9.5 | 92-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
3* Double Digit Blood Bath on Houston Rockets -9.5
We backed the Hornets last night and they cost us with some poor play down the stretch. Now they have to pack up and head to Houston to take on one of the hottest teams in the league in Houston. New Orleans has reached the 100 point barrier just one time in their last 15 games, and that was back on 12/14 against Minnesota when they gave up 113. Houston on the other hand has scored 109 or more in six of their last eight games. The Rockets score too many points for New Orleans to catch up. Houston is a good 3-point shooting team who shoots a lot from outside, while the Hornets allow opponents to shoot 38% from behind the arc. I'm expecting a healthy amount of points, so don't have any problem laying just under double digits. |
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01-02-13 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -10.5 | 81-89 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
3* Money Maker on Pacers -10.5
Washington had a chance to pick up a much needed win last night against the Mavericks but an awful third quarter did this team in again. That made it 10 losses in their last 11 games and I don't like their chances going to Indiana to face a Pacers team that has won five of their last six and eight of their last 10 games. The Pacers have been playing well this year by playing suffocating defense and holding opponents to 7 ppg below their season average. Washington on the other hand makes everyone look defensively, scoring 9 ppg less than their opponents allow. Even though this is going to be a low scoring game, I like the home team to put enough on the board to cover the double digits. |
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01-02-13 | Rutgers +16 v. Syracuse | 53-78 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on Rutgers +16
I think this is a good matchup for a Rutgers team that comes into this game with a 9-2 record on the year and plays tough on the defensive end of the floor. The Scarlet Knights are holding opponents to just 40.5% shooting while converting on 48.3% of their shots this year. They do a good job of defending the 3-point shot, but don't take a lot of outside shots themselves. This is important since Syracuse does a great job of defending the perimeter, only allowing 26.4% from deep. The Orange are a pretty solid basketball team, but I'm not scared to take the 16 points here today with a solid team that slows the pace down, shoots a high percentage from the floor and is good defensively. |
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01-02-13 | Pennsylvania +21 v. Butler | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
3* Public Blood Bath on Penn +21
Solid system supports our play on Penn today that says to fade favorites of 20 points or more who have covered the spread in four of their last five. This system is 41-19 (68.3%) over the last five seasons. Penn is not a good team, but their last two losses weren't quite as bad as they may initially seem. Being an Ivy League school finals are taken seriously, so the team had 12 days off between Villanova and Delaware. You can probably excuse them for being a little rusty in that one. Last time out though this team lost to Wagner, but again that game was played more than a week after Delaware game due to Christmas. On the other hand you have Butler that has rattled off seven straight wins, including a big win over Indiana back on 12/15. This team has covered four out of five and is prime for a letdown. The way both of these teams have been playing lately sets us up for some nice value here tonight. |
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01-02-13 | Nebraska +21 v. Ohio State | 44-70 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
3* High Roller on Nebraska +21
Ohio State put a couple of beatings down on Nebraska last year, winning 79-45 in Lincoln and by 31 at home. The Huskers are a better team this year and you can bet those two whoppings were hammered home to them as they prepared for this game against the Buckeyes. Ohio State on the other hand is in a prime look ahead spot as they travel to Illinois to face the 13-1 Illini in their next game. You think these players are worried about a team they beat by 65 points in two games last year or a team that is up and coming to threaten them for the Big Ten title? I'll take the points here with what should be the hungrier team. |
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01-02-13 | Providence +18 v. Louisville | 62-80 | Push | 0 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
3* Vegas Insider on Providence +18
Couple of good systems supporting our play here say to fade home favorites or 10 or more points after 7 or more wins in a row. This system is 182-118 (60.7%) the last five years. Another system play here is to take underdogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss as a favorite when they are playing a team that won but didn't cover last time out. This system is 93-50 (65%) since 1997. Providence is a good team that is showing us some value now that they are coming off two straight losses as a favorite. The one against Brown was particularly bad since they were double digit chalk, but losing by one when your opponent shoots 50% the first game after Christmas isn't that much of a shock to me. Louisville is a good team that is coming off a tough win against their rivals in Kentucky. It's tough saying they won't be up for their first Big East game of the season, but this is a prime letdown spot for the Cardinals. |
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01-01-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. New Orleans Hornets +3.5 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
5* No Brainer on New Orleans Hornets +3
This is a tough scheduling spot for Atlanta. They are in the dreaded position of playing their fourth game in five nights, playing back-to-back against Cleveland and Indiana, having a night off, then playing in Houston last night on New Year's Eve. They didn't look good against the Rockets, getting beat down by a superior team. Obviously New Orleans isn't a good team as they clock in at 7-23 on the year, while Atlanta is 19-10, but the Hornets do have two wins in their last three games and scored 97 or above in each. Since Atlanta has given up 100 or more in three of their last four, I think the Hornets are going to put enough points on the board to pick up the win here on New Year's Day. The public is going to look at this matchup and see the Hawks won by 22 down in New Orleans last year, but this team has improved and will look to that defeat as some motivation here today. The Hornets start fresh in 2013 and pick up the win over a Hawks team that is overvalued after winning four straight before last night. |
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01-01-13 | Connecticut +6.5 v. Marquette | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
3* Marquee Mismatch on UConn +6.5 over Marquette
This is the Big East opener for both teams, so you know each one of them will be giving it their full attention, but the Huskies will have some extra motivation. Marquette came up to Connecticut last February and put a 79-64 beating down on the Huskies, including leading by 14 points at the half so it was never even close. Fast forward to this season and you'll see UConn off to a very good start at 10-2. Their two losses were by four and six points to New Mexico and NC State. I think both of those teams are a step up in class over Marquette and yet the Huskies are getting 6.5 points here tonight. Marquette backers are going to look at UConn and see how this team has only covered twice so far, in their first game against Michigan State and in their last against Washington. They also haven't had a true road game yet this year, but that is what is giving us a couple points of value here tonight. The Huskies have played the tougher schedule and the win over Michigan State really stands out to me as this being the better team. |
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12-31-12 | Harvard +13 v. Saint Marys CA | Top | 69-70 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
5* CBB No Limit on Harvard +13
This is a great matchup for Harvard as they have made 40% of their 3-point shots on the season and are taking on a St. Mary's team that is giving up 38% from deep range. The other thing Harvard does is get to the line, they are taking 22 free throws a game against teams that allow 19. St. Mary's allows 21 free throws a game against teams that shoot 19. You should see Harvard taking quite a bit of free throws and that's good news as they have hit 74.3% of them on the year. Another reason to back Harvard is the rest factor. St. Mary's played yesterday against Yale and also played on the 27th against Rhode Island. In the NBA you are used to seeing this kind of thing, but college kids aren't used to this quick of a turnaround and it normally shows with tired legs. Harvard is a team that slows the pace down quite a bit and in those situations taking double digits is a gift. I'll ride the Harvard Crimson tonight on ESPN2. |
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12-31-12 | North Texas +14 v. Middle Tennessee St | 57-75 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 37 m | Show | |
3* Heavy Hitter on North Texas +14
This is a few too many points for Middle Tennessee to be laying today even though I like this team quite a bit. They have beat some SEC teams in Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, plus they knocker off UAB by 20 points. The issue I have is that they can't take advantage of the Mean Green weakness, which is defending the perimeter. Middle Tennessee only shoots 14 deep balls a game. On the other hand they are very good at defending the 3-point shot, only allowing opponents to shoot 27.8%. The problem is North Texas doesn't shoot a lot of three point shots either so that strength is largely wasted. Middle Tennessee went into North Texas last year as five point favorites and barely walked away with a 2-point win. If you just look at scoring margins and records this line looks about right, but the way these two teams match up favors North Texas so I think they keep it close and get the cover here today. |
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12-31-12 | Bowling Green +14.5 v. Temple | 57-75 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
3* High Roller on Bowling Green +14.5 over Temple
This is a lot of points for Temple to be laying to Bowling Green today. The line is slightly overpriced here since the Owls are coming off the big upset win against Syracuse and they have had 8 days rest until now to think about it. Temple has shot 40% or less in their last five games and that includes wins over teams like Towson and Alcorn State, and a loss to Canisius. Bowling Green played host to Michigan State this year and lost by 11. they also went to South Florida and lost by 3. Temple might be a little better than South Florida, but they are nowhere near as good as the Spartans so I don't think they will give Bowling Green their worst loss of the season. Temple has beaten two teams by 15 points, and that was Buffalo and Alcorn State. They only beat Rice by 14 points and the Owls are awful. System supporting our play here that says to take double digit underdogs in December who are coming off an upset loss as a favorite. These teams are 207-126 (62.2%) since 1997. Bowling Green fits the bill after losing by 3 points as 3 point chalk at North Dakota. |
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12-30-12 | Southern Illinois -4 v. Missouri State | 59-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt ATS Rout on Southern Illinois -4
Missouri State has been terrible this year, losing eight straight games and only covering once in either tries. Their shooting has been abysmal. In the last five games they have shot 35.5%. They aren't grabbing any of their own rebounds either, in fact they are just nabbing 25 boards per game over their last five. Southern Illinois isn't great, but they should bring their "A" game today to open Missouri Valley conference play. This is a team that has lost six straight in the series and will be looking for some serious payback on Sunday. Missouri State is 0-9 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games the let two years and 0-8 ATS after three or more straight losses. |
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12-29-12 | Boston Celtics +3.5 v. Golden State Warriors | 83-101 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
3* False Favorite on Boston Celtics +3.5
I love this matchup with the gritty veterans from Boston taking on the up and comers in the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors have been putting up a lot of points lately, scoring 94 or more in six straight games but their last two victories have come with only 94 and 96 points, so they are slowing down a little bit. Boston is coming off a disappointing loss to the Clippers in which they were blown out of the water, but this group should rebound for the short road trip to Golden State. The Celtics are 23-7 ATS on the road after an embarrassing road loss in which they scored less than 80 points since 1996. The Warriors offense has been explosive, but their defense not so much. Boston is shooting at a high rate from the floor at 46.6% which isn't a good matchup for the Warriors who are just 18-32 ATS against teams who make 46% of their shots or higher from the floor the last three years. |
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12-29-12 | Oklahoma City Thunder -4 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 124-94 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
5* No Limit Play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4
The Thunder were the hottest team in the NBA up until losing at Minnesota and at Miami in back-to-back games, then on Thursday night trailed most of the game to the Dallas Mavericks. This has setup the rare situation for OKC this season in which they have lost three straight games for their backers at the pay window. I expect that trend to end here tonight against the Houston Rockets. The Rockets on the other hand had won five in a row before dropping last night's contest to the San Antonio Spurs, but they still managed to cover giving them six straight at the pay window. This has caused them to be a little over-valued tonight against a team they can't match up with. The Thunder played Houston earlier this year and put up 120 points on them, which is no surprise since OKC is averaging 105 ppg. The Rockets can score the rock too, but they give up 102.5 ppg compared to the 96.8 ppg the Thunder allow. Coming off a high tempo game against the in-state rival San Antonio Spurs, I just can't see them having enough in the tank to keep it close against Oklahoma City. The Thunder on the other hand should be out to get back on track and pick up the easy win in Houston Saturday. |
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12-29-12 | Fairfield v. Old Dominion +3 | 55-54 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
3* Vegas Insider on Old Dominion +2.5
Fairfield is over-valued in this spot here today coming in off four straight covers and a straight up win as an 11 point underdog over St. Joseph's. This puts them in a little bit of a letdown spot as they see Old Dominion on the schedule at 2-10 on the year. Old Dominion though has played better than their record would indicate and has some momentum of their own off a 2 points win against Virginia, this is the same Virginia team that beat Fairfield by 9 points earlier in the year. The public sees a 2-10 team and immediately turns their head, but this team has covered in three of their last four games, missing the fourth cover by a single point at College of Charleston. This is a fairly good rebounding team, which makes up for their low shooting percentage and gives them a chance to keep this game close. I think you see the Monarchs pull the upset here Saturday. |
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12-29-12 | Towson +15.5 v. Oregon State | 67-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
3* Major Mismatch on Towson State +15.5
I like taking this many points when a team has played as good of defense as Towson State has this year. This team is holding opponents to just 38.7% shooting from the floor and limited Georgetown to just 29% from the field. Towson State has won just once in their last six games, but a closer look shows they played Georgetown to a 40-46 game and Temple to a 61-72 final, covering both times. You look at Oregon State and see their 9-2 record with five straight wins and it can be a little misleading. This team has only played two lined games in their last five and failed to cover against San Diego as 7.5 point favorites and Portland State laying 13. Nobody is going to be on Towson today, but in a low scoring game if you can catch 15.5 points it's too good of value to pass up. |