Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots UNDER 51.5 | 24-38 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 55 m | Show | |
4* Colts/Patriots TNF Total NO-BRAINER on Colts/Patriots UNDER Last week's Thursday night game between the Rams and Vikings saw a combined 69 points with the two teams nearly going OVER the total in the 1st half. While these Thursday games can be higher-scoring given teams are playing on short rest, I feel the number here and the injuries for both sides will keep this well below the mark. The Colts are dealing with massive injuries on the offensive line, which is going to put Andrew Luck and that offense behind the 8-ball from the start. On top of that they won't have starting running back Marlon Mack, wide out TY Hilton and tight end Jack Doyle. New England will get back Julian Edelman and Gronk is expected to play after suffering an ankle injury last week, but he's likely to be playing at less than 100%. I know the Colts just gave up 37 last week to the Texans, but they have been really good defensively on the road, allowing just 9 points at Washington and 20 at Philadelphia. UNDER is 6-0 in the Colts last 6 road games, 8-1 in their last 9 off a loss and 8-2 in their last 10 vs an AFC opponent. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Patriots last 10 vs the AFC, 8-3 in their last 11 after gaining more than 350 yards in the previous game and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! |
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10-04-18 | Jets -105 v. Blues | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Jets
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-04-18 | Georgia State +17.5 v. Troy | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Georgia State
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-04-18 | Bruins v. Sabres +1.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -220 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
3* NHL Puck Line MASSACRE on Sabres +1.5 I'm confident the Sabres can keep this within 1-goal, as I actually think they win the game outright. The Bruins were humiliated in their season-opener at Washington 7-0 and I think the public perception is that Boston will rebound here. Not me. I think that ugly loss to the Capitals was a very concerning sign of where this Bruins team is to start the season. Buffalo is a team that is trying to take that next step and get to the playoffs and we can count on a electric home crowd in not only their home opener but their season opener. Note that Boston's game against Washington was last night and the Bruins are just 10-19 over the last 3 seasons when playing on no rest. Take Buffalo +1.5! |
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10-03-18 | A's +163 v. Yankees | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
3* A's/Yankees AL Wild Card Winner on Oakland + We saw the Cubs lose at home in the NL Wild Card on Tuesday and I look for the road team to reign supreme again in Wednesday's AL Wild Card showdown between the A's and Yankees. I just don't trust New York starter Luis Severino in this spot. While he got back on track over his final few starts, he allowed 6 runs on 6 hits in just 2 1/3 innings against these A's less than a month ago (9/5). You also can't ignore how shaky Severino was in last season's playoffs. He started New York's 8-4 win over the Twins in the Wild Card game, but recorded just 1 out before he had to be pulled. He allowed just 3 runs in 7 innings of his next start against the Indians, but was fortunate to only give up 3 runs allowing 2 homers. Then in his two starts against the Astros he failed to complete 5 innings in either start. Oakland was the better team in the 2nd half and this A's offense is built for postseason success. I also don't have any concerns with Oakland going with "Opener" Liam Hendricks here. The A's used an "Opener" 9 times in September and posted a 1.86 ERA in those 9 games. Take Oakland! |
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10-03-18 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -240 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 21 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Maple Leafs
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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10-02-18 | Rockies v. Cubs UNDER 7.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
4* NL Wild Card Total ANNIHILATOR on Cubs UNDER Both of yesterday's tie-breaker games were low scoring and both the Cubs and Rockies offenses found it very difficult to get anything going. The Cubs managed just 3 hits against the Brewers and their lone run came on a solo shot by Rizzo. Colorado only had 4 hits against the Dodgers and two of those came in the 9th inning on solo shots by Arenado and Story with the Rockies trailing 5-0. Hard to see either of these offenses getting on track with the starting pitching matchup that has the Cubs Jon Lester up against the Rockies Kyle Freeland. Lester was 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA in 32 starts and comes in with a 1.00 ERA over his last 3 starts. Freeland was 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA and enters with a 1.83 ERA over his last 3 starts. You also have to factor in this being a winner take-all scenario, which means both teams are going to use their best relievers and won't hesitate to make a change to get the best matchups possible. We are also going to have less than ideal scoring conditions with the wind blowing slightly in from center and temps expected in the mid to low 60s. UNDER is 22-8 in the Rockies last 30 games vs a left-handed starter, 13-4 in their last 17 off a loss and 13-3 in Freeland's last 16 starts against a team that scored 2 or fewer runs in their previous game. UNDER is also 11-3 in the Cubs last 14 home games and 5-1 in their last 6 at home in the playoffs. Take the UNDER! |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 191 h 36 m | Show | |
4* Chiefs/Broncos (MNF) ATS NO-BRAINER on Broncos + The Chiefs have gotten off to an impressive 3-0 start behind the sensational play of 1st-year starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who set a new NFL record with 13 TD passes in the first 3 games of the season. This amazing start has KC way overvalued here as a road favorite against a division rival. The Broncos have started out 2-1 and are greatly improved over last year, as they now have a legit offense with Case Keenum at quarterback and the emergence of running back Phillip Lindsay, who is averaging 6.0 yards/carry over the first 3 games. An improved offense is all Denver needed to get back to being a playoff contender, as they have a top tier defense behind Von Miller and company. As good as Mahomes has been, he has struggled against the blitz and Denver ranks in the Top 5 in the league in percentage of plays that they blitz on. Look for that Broncos defense to slow down the high-powered KC attack, while the offense should be able to move the ball at will against a horrible Chiefs defense. Broncos are 28-14 ATS in their last 42 home games against top tier teams that are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game. Take Denver! |
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09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 51 | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 96 h 41 m | Show |
5* NFL Sunday Night TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Steelers UNDER The fact that the OVER is a perfect 3-0 in the Steelers first 3 games and the Ravens are looking strong offensively to start, has this total for Sunday Night Football set way to high. I think both teams will struggle to come anywhere close to putting up the kind of numbers here to push this over the mark. The biggest thing that gets overlooked is just how much harder it is offensively against a division opponent, as these teams play each other twice a year and are very familiar with the schemes the opponent likes to run. Baltimores defense has been great outside of the Thursday night game against the Bengals and I believe that poor showing was a direct result of playing on just 3 days of rest. The Ravens definitely matchup well with Pittsburgh and their high-powered passing attack, as Baltimore ranks 2nd in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 169.3 ypg. The Steelers defense hasn't been the same since losing Ryan Shazier at the end of last season, but they were sharp last week against the Bucs. While they allowed 27 points for the game, Tampa Bay had just 10 points at the half and the Steelers defense forced 4 turnovers. Baltimore's offense also isn't as good as the numbers would suggest, as they have benefited greatly from playing the likes of the Bills, Bengals and Broncos. UNDER is 13-3 in the Steelers last 12 vs a team that's averaging 29 or more points/game and 12-4 in their last 16 after a game where they allowed 250 or more yards passing. We also find a great system in play, as the UNDER is 75-35 (68%) when you have a total of 49.5 or more with a team (Ravens) off a home win and playing a division game. Take the UNDER! |
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09-30-18 | Saints v. Giants +3.5 | 33-18 | Loss | -105 | 88 h 50 m | Show | |
4* Saints/Giants NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Giants + The Giants are way undervalued here getting over a field goal at home. In fact, I think it should be New York that is the favorite. New Orleans is simply getting too much respect for their 2-1 start, as the Saints could just as easily be 0-3. New Orleans lost at home in Week 1 to the Bucs and should have lost at home in Week 2 to the Browns. They were also fortunate to win in OT at Atlanta in Week 3, a victory that was greatly aided by the Falcons missing some key pieces on the defensive side of the ball. The Giants are just 1-2, but could easily be sitting at 2-1, as they let one get away at home against the Jaguars in Week 1. New York avoided an 0-3 start with an impressive 27-22 win at Houston and it was by far the best the Giants offense had looked to this point. Given how bad the Saints defense has looked early on, look for Eli Manning and company to have another big day here. The key here is New York's defense is better than it gets credit for. The strength of the Giants defense has been their secondary, which ranks 11th in the NFL giving up just 232 ypg. We all know the Saints offense is built around Brees and that passing attack, so this is a great matchup for NY. Not to mention the Saints offense tends to struggle on the road in games played outside. New Orleans is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a cover. Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 at home vs a team with a winning road record and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 at home vs strong passing teams that are completing 64% or more of their attempts. Take New York! |
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | 10-48 | Win | 105 | 84 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bears + This is too good a price to pass up on Chicago at home. The Bears are one of the most improved teams in the league and should be 3-0 if not for that big collapse on the road against Green Bay in Week 1. While the Bucs are also 2-1, they came back to earth last time out, losing at home to the Steelers on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay lost by a final score of just 30-27, but were down 30-10 at the half. Really tough spot here for the Bucs playing no a short week of rest and I just don't see Tampa Bay's offense being able to do enough here against an elite Bears defense. The even bigger key here is that this Bucs defense is one the Bears' offense can exploit. Tampa Bay comes in ranked 31st in the NFL in total defense, giving up 433.4 ypg. They have been atrocious against the pass, allowing 362.7 ypg. While two of those games were against Brees and Roethlisberger, they also allowed Nick Foles to throw for 334 yards against them. Look for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense to put up their best numbers of 2018 and that should be more than enough for Chicago to pull away for the win and cover. Adding to this is the fact that the Bucs are just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 vs bad passing teams that are averaging 5.2 or less yards/attempt. Bears are also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 at home, including a 5-0-1 ATS mark in their last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Chicago! |
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09-29-18 | BYU v. Washington -16.5 | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 120 h 25 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Non-Conference PLAY OF THE WEEK on Washington - I got no problem here laying the big number with the Huskies at home against the Cougars. The betting public is all over BYU at this price, as that upset win at Wisconsin as a 23.5-point dog is still fresh in the minds of a lot of people. The win over Wisconsin looks great on paper, but I'm not so sure the Badgers are as good as we expected. There's also little to be excited about with their road win at Arizona to open the season, as the Wildcats have looked horrible. The game that stands out to me is the home loss to Cal, who is no where close as talented as this Washington team. I also don't think people are factoring in just how difficult it is to play well Husky Stadium, especially under the lights in a prime time game. The even bigger key here is this is a statement game for Washington, who need to dominate the rest of the way to get into the playoffs with that loss they suffered early to Auburn. I look for the defense of the Huskies to be what allows them to not just win but cover. BYU's offense comes in ranked 119th in the country at just 320.3 ypg. That's just not going to cut against this elite defense. Take Washington! |
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09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State +4 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 60 h 44 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State + I absolutely love the value here with Penn State not only a home dog, but catching more than a field goal. There's arguably not a better atmosphere in the country than when Penn State plays at home in a prime time game in a "white out." Two years ago in this spot they upset No. 2 Ohio State 24-21 as a 19-point dog. Last year they destroyed No. 19 Michigan 42-13 as a 9-point favorite. With that said, I fully expect the Nittany Lions to win this game outright, but I'll gladly take the points for some added insurance. The concerns over Penn State's offense having to replace Saquon Barkley and offensive coordinator Joe Moorehead can be thrown out the window. The Nittany Lions are averaging over 500 ypg and come in 10th in the nation in rushing at 275 ypg, which well above the 170 ypg they averaged with Barkely last year. Senior quarterback Trace McSorely is the real deal and this could very well be his defining moment for the Heisman trophy. As good as Ohio State's defense has looked and all the big names they have, I think Penn State will be able to put up points on the Buckeyes, especially with OSU's Nick Bosa sidelined. Keep in mind we saw a TCU offense that isn't nearly as talented as the Nittany Lions put up over 500 yards and 22 first downs against Ohio State a few weeks back. The other thing to keep in mind, is the fact that this will be Ohio State's first true road game of the season. The only game away from home was that neutral site matchup with TCU and it felt like more of a home game with all the Buckeye fans in the stadium. Nittany Lions are 20-5-2 ATS in their last 27 games overall, as the books just keep undervaluing them. They are also 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 vs a team with a winning record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Penn State! |
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09-29-18 | Stanford v. Notre Dame OVER 52 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 48 h 23 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Prime Time TOTAL NO-BRAINER on Stanford OVER Both the Fighting Irish and Cardinal are well known for their defenses and both have impressed early against quality competition. Stanford has held 3 of their 4 opponents to 10 points or less, including limiting USC to just 3-points. Notre Dame has held 3 of their 4 opponents to 17 or fewer, one of those being Shea Patterson and the Wolverines. However, both defenses gave up a season-high last week. With Stanford allowing 31 to Oregon (should have been a lot more) and the Irish allowing 27 to Wake Forest. I believe that's a telling sign of what's to come on Saturday, as I look for these two teams to fly over this total. Notre Dame, like a lot of top tier teams around the country, made a move at quarterback, going to sophomore Ian Book. It sure looked like the right move, as Book went 25 of 34 for 325 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 43 yards and 3 touchdowns. I believe he takes a good Irish offense and makes them elite. As for Stanford, their offense couldn't have looked much worse early on, but they finally looked up to par in last week's game agains the Ducks. K.J. Costello threw for 327 yards and 3 scores and Bryce Love had 89 yards on just 19 attempts. I think both teams score in the high 20's and potentially into the 30's, which will be more than enough to eclipse the mark set by the books. Take the OVER 52! |
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09-29-18 | South Carolina +2 v. Kentucky | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 60 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina + It's been quite the start to the season for Kentucky, who is 4-0 with wins over two ranked teams in Florida and Mississippi State. The win over Mississippi State really turned some heads and people are starting to buy into this team. South Carolina has started out 2-1, but had an ugly loss at home to Georgia that quieted the hype around this team. The books are all but begging the public to take Kentucky here laying less than a field goal at home, but I'm going the other way. I think this Gamecocks team is a lot better than people think. While they might not be as talented as the top teams in the SEC, I certainly feel like they are the more talented team in this matchup. I also think this is a tough spot for Kentucky. Not only are they off an emotional win over Mississippi State, but that victory got the respect they were so desperately wanting, as Kentucky went from unranked to No. 17 in the country. It's a lot easier playing with a chip on your shoulder than dealing with the pressure of being expected to win. The other big thing for me is the matchup. Kentucky's offense is centered around running back Benny Snell, as they come in averaging 269 ypg on the ground to just 158 ypg through the air. They are running it twice as much as they are throwing it. I think that plays right into the strength of this South Carolina defense, which is only giving up 3.9 yards/carry against teams that are averaging 5.5. The Gamecocks are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games played on Saturday, while Kentucky is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite, which includes an 0-7 mark as a home favorite. Take South Carolina! |
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09-29-18 | BC +7 v. Hamilton | 10-40 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 56 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on BC
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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09-29-18 | Old Dominion +7 v. East Carolina | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 44 h 17 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Afternoon ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Old Dominion + This is just too good a price to pass up on with the Monarchs. Old Dominion pulled off one of the biggest upsets of Week 4, as they knocked Virginia Tech 49-35 as a massive 28-point home dog. I think the perception here is that the Monarchs win was a just a result of the Hokies not showing up to play. While that definitely wasn't the best effort from Va Tech, I think it's a mistake to not give some credit to Old Dominion. The Monarchs put up 632 yards of total offense and it was a direct result of a quarterback change. Blake La Russa came off the bench and 30 of 49 for 495 yards and 4 scores. He lit a fire under this team they had been desperately missing in their 0-3 start, which saw them lose to the likes of Liberty, FIU and Charlotte. Keep in mind this is a team that brought back 16 starters and was suppose to be greatly improved. As for East Carolina, they also have an impressive outright win as a big dog against an ACC team. The Pirates defeated UNC 41-19 as a 15-point dog. The thing is, that's not a very good Tar Heels team and it doesn't cover up the fact that they lost outright at home to FCS foe North Carolina A&T. They also had just 13 points against a bad USF defense. I just don't think ECU should be laying this big a number against a team that I feel is every bit as talented as them. Pirates are also not a team that has had a lot of success covering the number under head coach Philip Montgomery. In fact, they are 8-19 ATS with him at head coach. They are also a miserable 3-13 ATS in the first month of the season. Take Old Dominion! |
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09-28-18 | Memphis -14 v. Tulane | 24-40 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
3* Friday Night NCAAF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Memphis - I just don't think it's asking much for Memphis to win here by more than two touchdowns. Tulane's only win on the season came at home against FCS foe Nicholls State. While they did lost by just 6 at home to Wake Forest earlier in the season, they only managed 17 points against what has been an awful Demon Deacons defense. They aren't going to keep this within two touchdowns without a huge offensive effort, as this Memphis offense is no joke. The Tigers come in average 49.5 ppg and 593 ypg. They are also averaging 8.7 yards/play, nearly picking up a first down every time they snap the ball. Memphis is built around their passing attack, but are also averaging 309 ypg on the ground. The big key here is that Tulane is not a team that is built to play from behind with that option based offense that comes in averaging 41 rush attempts per game. Look for the Tigers to jump out to an early lead and win here by 20+ points. Adding to this, we see that road teams off back-to-back wins by 14 or more points who are winning at least 60% of their games are 67-29 (70%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Memphis! |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +6.5 v. Rams | 31-38 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 42 m | Show | |
4* Vikings/Rams Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Vikings + This is just too good a price to pass up on the Vikings, who I think are more than capable of going into LA and winning this game outright. Minnesota is way undervalued after that ugly loss to the Bills and the Rams are way overvalued right now after starting out a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS. If you remember back to last year, Minnesota beat the Rams 24-7 on their home field. They held the high-powered LA offense to just 254 yards and 15 first downs. They also dominated the time of possession 37:22 to 22:38. I expect the Vikings to use a similar game-plan in this one, though I also think they are more than capable of winning this game in a shootout. The Rams defense looked great against a couple of bad offenses in the Raiders and Cardinals. It wasn't nearly as good last week against the Chargers and will go into this one missing both their star corners in Talib and Peters. They will also be without linebacker Mark Barron. This is a statement game for Minnesota and I just don't see the Rams pulling away and winning here by a touchdown or more. I see this one being extremely competitive right down to the wire, making this an easy play with the big spread. Take Minnesota! |
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09-27-18 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL UNDER 56.5 | 10-47 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 49 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on under No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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09-26-18 | Dodgers -115 v. Diamondbacks | 2-7 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
4* NL West PLAY OF THE WEEK on Dodgers - This is simply too good a price to pass up on the Dodgers. LA loss 4-3 on a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 9th on Tuesday. The Dodgers are still 10-3 over their last 13 and are definitely a team you want to back off a defeat, as they are 8-1 in their last 9 when coming off a loss. Arizona is getting some love from the books because they have their ace Zack Greinke on the mound, but LA has enjoyed going up against top notch starters. In fact, the Dodgers are 22-8 in their last 30 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Arizona has lost 6 straight off a win, are just 8-20 in their last 28 overall and a mere 1-4 in Greinke's last 5 home starts. Take Los Angeles! |
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09-25-18 | Brewers +104 v. Cardinals | 12-4 | Win | 104 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
4* NL Central PLAY OF THE WEEK on Brewers + Milwaukee went into St Louis and took the series opener 6-4 on Monday and should have no problem taking game 2. With the Brewers win and the Cubs losing to the Pirates, Milwaukee is now just 1.5-games back of Chicago for 1st place in the NL Central. Hard to not like the Brewers chances on Tuesday, as they send out the red-hot Gio Gonzalez against the struggling Ausin Gomber of St Louis. Gonzalez has a 1.65 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in his last 3 starts, all 3 of which have come after Gonzalez came over from the Nationals. As for Gomber, he's got a 7.07 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 5.06 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in 3 home starts. Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, while St Louis is a mere 1-5 in their last 6 at home vs a team with a winning record. Take Milwaukee! |
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09-24-18 | Rangers v. Angels UNDER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
4* MLB Late Night TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Rangers UNDER The books have set the total too high for Monday's MLB matchup between the Rangers and Angels. Both of these teams are just playing for pride and both are struggling at the plate in the stretch run. LA his hitting an atrocious .185 as a team over their last 7 games. A stretch in which they have scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5. It hasn't been much better for Texas. The Rangers are hitting just .214 as a team over their last 7 and have been shutout 3 times in their last 6 games. Angels will give the rock to Felix Pena, who has flashed some potential and was absolutely dominant in his recent start against the Rangers on 9/12, allowing just 6 hits over 6 shutout innings. Adrian Sampson will take the mound for Texas and he's got a 2.53 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in his 2 starts this season. One of those came against the Angels, where he allowed just 1 run on 2 hits in 5 innings of a 0-1 loss. UNDER is 10-4 in Pena's last 14 starts and 6-2 in the Angels last 8 at home. UNDER is also 25-9-3 in the Rangers last 37 road games vs a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! |
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09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 52.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 168 h 48 m | Show | |
4* MNF (PIT/TB) Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Steelers OVER The books simply haven't set the bar high enough for this one. Scoring is up this year and we have two offenses that are clicking early against two defenses that haven't been up to par. The Steelers managed just 21 points in their opener against the Browns, but did have an impressive 472 total yards. They were doomed by 6 turnovers and keep in mind that game was played in less than ideal conditions. Week 2 they put up 37 points and 475 total yards in a game with KC that saw a combined score of 79 points. All the talk with the Bucs is centered around Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown for over 400 yards and 4 scores in each of their first two games. They put up 48 points in their Week 1 win on the road against the Saints and 27 last week against the Eagles, who have one of the best defenses in the league. All of the focus on the offense has people overlooking how bad Tampa Bays defense has played. The Bucs are giving up 30.5 ppg and 443.5 ypg. It doesn't figure to be any better against Roethlisber and the Steelers potent offense, especially with all the injuries that have piled up on that side of the ball. As for Pittsburgh's defense, it just hasn't been the same since they lost Ryan Shazier a season ago. I could see them playing better this week with Joe Haden back from injury, but they aren't shutting down this Bucs offense on the road. Both teams figure to score early and often and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if these two combined for 65+ points. Take the OVER! |
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09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions +7 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 144 h 53 m | Show | |
4* NFL Sunday Night Football ATS NO BRAINER on Lions + The public perception couldn't be much worse on the Lions after their 0-2 start, especially the ugly loss at home in prime time against the Jets in Week 1. That combined with the public wanting to jump on the Patriots off a loss, has Detroit showing some exceptional value here at home on Sunday Night Football. The Lions might not be a great team, but they are going to play their hearts out for their new head coach Matt Patricia, as he came to Detroit from New England. Not to mention their season is pretty much on the line, as it's no secret that your chances of making the playoffs are slim to none if you start the season 0-3. I'm not saying they win the game, but I don't think it's out of the question. New England is beat up right now. They got multiple key players on both sides of the ball injured and the Patriots are a team that has consistently started out slow. NE is also a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a losing home record. We also see that underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 30+ points in their last game are 120-72 (63%) ATS when facing a team off a loss by 10 or more. Take Detroit! |
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09-23-18 | 49ers +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -105 | 100 h 7 m | Show |
5* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on 49ers + The Chiefs are getting way too much respect from the books after their 2-0 start. Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes has been the talk of the NFL after setting a new NFL record with 10 touchdowns passes in the first two games of the season. While the Chief's offense is dynamic, the defense is one of the worst in the league. Kansas City's secondary has been an absolute joke. They let Philip Rivers throw for 418 yards in Week 1 and last week Ben Roethlisberger threw for 442 yards. Expect a monster day here from Jimmy Garoppolo and the entire 49ers offense. I just think when you play defense as poorly as the Chiefs do, it's only a matter a time before it bites you. San Francisco's defense hasn't been great early on, but will be getting back a huge piece this week in linebacker Reuben Foster, who was suspended the first two games. I think the 49ers get a few more stops and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they won this game outright. There's also a great system in play favoring a San Francisco cover. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who didn't force a turnover in their previous game are a mere 41-81 (35%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It's also worth noting the 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Take San Francisco! |
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09-23-18 | Colts +7 v. Eagles | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 9 m | Show | |
4* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Colts + The public is all over the Eagles with the news that Carson Wentz is making his much anticipated debut of 2018 and it has Philadelphia way overvalued here at home against the Colts. Indy is a legit playoff threat in the AFC with Andrew Luck back at quarterback. After blowing a 13-point lead in their opener at home against the Bengals, Indianapolis went on the road and put it on the Redskins in a 21-9 win. We knew the offense would be improved with Luck back under center, but the perception is the Colts have no defense. That's not the case and even with Wentz back in the lineup, I think the Eagles offense will struggle here. Philadelphia is missing a ton of key pieces on the offensive side of the ball. Alshon Jeffery is still out with a shoulder injury. Fellow wide out Mike Wallace and running backs Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles will join him on the sidelines. Colts have thrived as a dog in this price range with their signal caller under center. Indy is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points with Luck at quarterback. Take Indianapolis! |
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09-22-18 | Arkansas v. Auburn -29 | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Prime-Time ATS DESTROYER on Auburn - I really like Auburn to bounce back in a big way from last week's gut-wrenching 22-21 home loss to LSU. That's definitely one they would have loved to win, but it doesn't ruin their season. Keep in mind they lost a heartbreaker to LSU last year and went on to win the SEC West. What it does do is put Auburn in playoff mode early in the year, as they essentially have to win out. A lot of people might think Auburn will come out flat after that loss, but I expect the exact opposite. This a statement game for the Tigers and Arkansas is just the team for them to get back on track against. The Razorbacks have been a huge disappointment in year one under head coach Chad Morris. They blew a big 2nd half lead in a 27-34 defeat at Colorado St and followed that up by getting annihilated at home 44-17 by North Texas. Look for Auburn's Jarrett Stidham to have a field day here against this Arkansas defense that is giving up 300 ypg through the air and allowing opposing QBs to complete 61% of their attempts. With a defense that is as good as any in the country, the Tigers should take control of this game early and turn this into a blowout by half. Take Auburn! |
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09-22-18 | Michigan State -4 v. Indiana | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 48 h 18 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Michigan State - This is the perfect spot to buy-low on the Spartans. Michigan State came into the season ranked No. 11 in the country, but did have the start people were expecting. They needed a late score to knock off Utah State 38-31 as a 23.5-point favorite and then lost outright as a 4.5-point favorite at Arizona State. Coming in those were viewed as two easy wins, but turns out both of those teams are a lot better than people think. You also have to factor in just how hard it is for a midwest team to travel out to the west coast and play well. A lot of Big Tens teams over the years have struggled on the road against the Pac-12 early in the year. This is still a really good Michigan State team and while Indiana is no push-over, it's asking a lot of the Hoosiers to essentially keep this game within a field goal. I also think Indiana is getting a little too much love for that 28-point win over Ball State. Given how well the Cardinals played against Notre Dame on the road the previous week, that's viewed as a good win, but I think they got Ball State in a massive letdown spot. Note that Indiana was 5-1 ATS as a favorite last year and just 1-5 ATS when listed as an underdog. This team looks good against inferior teams and hit has them overvalued when they take a step up in competition. I think that's what we are seeing here, as the Spartans should win here by double-digits. Take Michigan State! |
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09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +22 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 70 h 31 m | Show |
5* NCAAF No Limit GAME OF THE YEAR on LA Tech + This is the absolute perfect spot to fade LSU. There were those that doubted the Tigers being for real after that Week 1 thrashing of Miami, but after winning on the road at Auburn this team is considered to be for real. I believe it has LSU way overvalued in a massive letdown spot against a quality team. Ed Oregon knows how to get his team locked in and fired up in big games, but struggles to keep that focus and energy when they are the superior team. We saw it last year when they lost at home to Troy as a 20-point favorite. The other thing is the offense hasn't exactly been great in the early going. I know they have played two good defenses in Miami and Auburn, but they had just 335 total yards against SE Louisiana. Louisiana Tech gave up just 25.4 ppg and 386 ypg last year and this year's team is expected to be even better on that side of the ball. The offense has always been able to put up points under head coach Skip Holtz and this year will be no different with 8 starters back, including starting QB J'Mar Smith, who has 589 yards and 4 TD's in 2 games. The other big key here is the fact that the Bulldogs had a bye last week, giving them two full weeks to get ready for this game. Holz is also 30-15 ATS as a head coach when his team is a road dog with the average loss in this spot coming by just 7.6 ppg. Take Louisiana Tech! |
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09-22-18 | UNLV v. Arkansas State -7 | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State The Red Wolves come into this one at 2-1 with the only loss coming at No. 1 Alabama. Last time out they won outright 29-20 as a road dog against a much-improved Tulsa team and I look for them to have no problem here covering the number at home against UNLV. UNLV comes in averaging an impressive 39.7 ppg, but a lot of that has to do with the fact they played two cupcakes (UTEP & Prairie View) at home the last two times out. The fact that they played USC tough and covered the big number in Week 1 has them overvalued here. The key here is the Rebels just don't play enough defense to be competitive on the road against a quality team like Arkansas State. UNLV is giving up a ridiculous 5.4 yards/carry on the ground, allowing 1.3 more yards/carry than what their opponents are averaging. That plays right into the strength of this Red Wolves' offense, which is averaging 4.8 yards/carry on the ground this season. Red Wolves Blake Anderson is 13-2 ATS as a head coach vs teams that are giving up 4.75 or more yards/carry. Take Arkansas State! |
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09-22-18 | Charlotte +10 v. UMass | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 39 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte + UMass has no business being this big of a favorite with the way this team is playing. The Minutemen are absolutely atrocious on the defensive side of the ball. In their last 3 games they have allowed 63 points and 536 yards to FIU, 34 points and 485 yards to Georgia Southern and 55 points and 622 yards to BC (Eagles had 48 pts at the half). They simply don't have the offensive fire-power to win games with that kind of production from their defense. Charlotte is not a great offensive team by any means, but they just had 373 yards and 28 points against a talented Old Dominion team. They are going to be able to move the football and put points on the board, giving them an excellent shot at keeping this close and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won the game outright. It's also worth noting that UMass could be down it's top two quarterbacks. Andrew Ford and Ross Comis are both questionable to play. Michael Curtis would be the starter if they can't go and he was just 8 of 15 with 2 picks against FIU. Take Charlotte! |
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09-22-18 | Virginia Tech v. Old Dominion +29 | 35-49 | Win | 100 | 66 h 54 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Od Dominion + It's been a complete disaster of a start for Old Dominion. Coming off a 5-7 campaign, where they won 3 of their last 4, a lot of people thought this team would easily make a bowl with 16 starters back. Instead the Monarchs have started 0-3 with losses at Liberty and Charlotte and a home defeat to FIU. The thing is, they could easily be 2-1 right now, as they blew a 17-point lead against FIU and missed out on several scoring opportunities in a 3-point loss the 49ers. I think there ugly start combined with how good Virginia Tech has looked, has the Hokies getting way too much respect on the road. That win over FSU doesn't look all that impressive any more and their other victory was against William & Mary. I'm not so sure this team is as good as people think. With a much bigger game on deck against Duke and the fact they are a 4-toucdhown favorite, I could see them looking past the Monarchs. Old Dominion knows an outright upset is likely out of reach, but expect this team to play their hearts out at home in this in-state rivalry (schools only separated by 300 miles). That should be more than enough for the Monarchs, who do have some talent, to keep this within the number. Take Old Dominion! |
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09-22-18 | Boston College v. Purdue +7 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 75 h 9 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Purdue + I just think there's too much value here with Purdue getting a touchdown at home against Boston College. The Boilermakers come into this game sitting at 0-3, but just as easily could be 3-0. Their 3 losses have come by a combined 8-points. We just saw Boston College get all they could handle on the road against Wake Forest in their last game and I think there's a good chance Purdue wins this game outright. This is basically a do-or-die point of the season for the Boilermakers. A win here and a bowl game is definitely still within reach. A loss and it doesn't look good. As for the Eagles, they come in feeling really good about themselves after their 3-0 start and just got rewarded with a Top 25 ranking (No. 23). I think it will be really hard for BC to match the intensity that Purdue is going to be playing with. The Boilermakers can put up points and while BC is known for their defense under Addazzio, they just gave up 512 yards to a Demon Deacons offense that scored just 23 against Tulane. WF rushed for 298 yards (5.0 yards/carry). BC has a decent offense of their own, but note that Boilermakers head coach Jeff Brohm is 15-4 ATS when facing a team that's completing 58% or more of their pass attempts and 11-2 ATS vs teams that run for more than 4.75 yards/carry. Take Purdue! |
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09-22-18 | Nebraska +18 v. Michigan | 10-56 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nebraska + There was a ton of hype around the Cornhuskers this year, as they landed promising head coach Scott Frost, who had just guided UCF to a perfect 13-0 season. All of that buzz has subsided after Nebraska's 0-2 start. Losing at home to Colorado in the opener, a game they could have easily won, was acceptable, but a 19-24 loss to Troy has people completely off this team. Michigan on the other hand is another team that people were really high on this year, as they landed Ole Miss quarter transfer Shea Patterson and many felt that was the one position holding this team back in previous years. The Wolverines were a 3-point favorite at Notre Dame and lost 17-24 and were completely outplayed. However, Michigan has rebounded with a 49-3 win over Western Michigan and 45-20 win over SMU to get back some respect. I think it all adds up to a ton of value here with Nebraska as a 3-point dog. They lost to Troy without starting quarterback Adrian Martinez, but he's expected back in the lineup this week. I've also been really impressed with this Nebraska defense, which is only giving up 2.7 yards/rush. I also don't trust the Michigan offense. The Wolverines edge in talent should have them win this game, but expect it to be a dogfight right until the end. Take Nebraska! |
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09-22-18 | Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7.5 | 56-27 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Wake Forest + Notre Dame is getting way too much respect here on the road against a good Wake Forest team. The Fighting Irish come into this game off to a perfect 3-0 start and are ranked No. 8 in the country. The thing is, Notre Dame has had to grind out wins in each 3 games and arguably should have lost last week at home to Vanderbilt. I was really impressed with how well Wake Forest played in their last game at home against a very good Boston College team. This Demon Deacons offense is no joke, as they put up over 500 yards of offense against the Eagles. Wake Forest has had ample amount of time to get ready for this game, as they last played on Sept. 13th. They not only have an edge in rest, but I think the homefield advantage is huge here, especially with this being Notre Dame's first game on the road in 2018. The Demon Deacons more than held their own last year in South Bend, losing by just 11-points as a 14.5-point dog. I not only think they get the cover at home this time around, but I like their chances of winning this game outright. Take Wake Forest! |
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09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -3.5 | 36-39 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC - This is the perfect buy-low spot on the Trojans. All the hype around USC being a playoff contender is completely out the window after the Trojans suffered back-to-back losses to fall to 1-2. The thing is, it was more of a result of a brutal schedule, as those two losses came at Stanford and at Texas. You have to keep in mind just how hard it is to win on the road against top tier teams and the fact that the Trojans are sending out a true freshman at quarterback. J.T. Daniels has had his ups and downs, but despite his 1-3 TD-INT ratio, I think he has a really bright future at USC. This could very well be his breakout performance here at home against a Washington State team that is getting way too much respect after their 3-0 start. The Cougars should be 3-0 right now, as they opened up the season against the likes of Wyoming, San Jose St and Eastern Washington. I look for Washington State to show their true colors in their first real road test of 2018. Keep in mind the Cougars only returned 10 starters from last year and had to replace their all-time leading passer in Luke Falk, as well as their leading rusher and top two receivers. The other big thing here is the Trojans are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder, not only to avoid to their 3rd straight loss, but to get revenge from last year's upset loss at Washington State, when they were No. 5 in the country. Take USC! |
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09-21-18 | Penn State v. Illinois +29 | 63-24 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 1 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Illinois + The Nittany Lions are getting way to much respect from the books in Friday's game at Illinois. The home teams have a huge advantage in these weekday games and I look for the Fighting Illini faithful to show their support in what is easily their biggest home on the schedule for 2018. Not to mention this is a much-improved Illinois team from last year's 2-10 squad. The Fighting Illini are going to do everything in their power here to pull off the upset. While I don't see that happening, they got an excellent shot here of keeping this within 4 scores. Penn State has won big in each of their last two games, but have not started strong and let's not forget about that near upset at home in Week 1 against Appalachian State. The even bigger key here is the spot for the Nittany Lions. It's going to be extremely hard for Penn State to give Illinois their full attention with arguably their biggest game of the season on deck next Saturday, as they will host Ohio State. A game that very well could decide the Big Ten East and the Nittany Lions' playoff hopes. The goal here isn't to embarrass Illinois, but just make sure they get a win and avoid any injuries, so even if this does get out of hand early, the backdoor will be wide open. Take Illinois! |
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09-21-18 | Brewers -123 v. Pirates | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
5* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Brewers - Milwaukee should have no problem securing a win on the road against the Pirates and are showing great value here as a short favorite. The Brewers will be out for revenge after dropping the final 2 games of a 3-game set at Milwaukee against these Pirates last week. Jhoulys Chacin will take the mound for the Brewers and he's 9-3 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.112 WHIP in 19 road starts. He's also pitched extremely well against Pittsburgh this season. Chacin has made 5 starts against the Pirates in 2018 and has allowed a mere 8 runs in 28 2/3 innings of work, never giving up more than 3 runs in any of the 5 starts. He's also allowed just 2 runs on 7 hits in the 2 starts that came at Pittsburgh. Brewers have won 6 of their last 8 on the road and 4 straight series openers with Chacin on the mound. Pirates are just 2-7 in their last 9 home games vs a team with a winning record and 3-3 in Ivan Nova's last 16 starts when he's facing a team that scored 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take Milwaukee! |
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09-20-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Browns | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 31 m | Show |
5* Jets/Browns TNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jets + The Cleveland Browns have won 1 game dating back to the start of the 2016 season. They had their chances in each of the first two weeks of 2018 to get a win, but continue to find ways to lose games late. This team has no business laying this many points against any team right now. The Jets came out with an impressive 48-17 win at Detroit on Monday Night Football, but laid an egg on short rest in a 20-12 home loss to the Dolphins. I think that poor showing against Miami has people once again second-guessing this team and that's created some big time value here with New York in this matchup. No question the Browns defense is improved, but I don't think it's as good as people are making it out to be. They have benefited greatly from the opposing team making costly mistakes, as they have 8 takeaways in 2 games. At some point the turnovers won't be there and this defense will get exposed. Look for Darnold to have a big game and while I'll gladly take the points, I fully expect New York to win this game outright. Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and have cashed 4 of the last 5 tickets on Thursday Night Football. Cleveland on the other hand is just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a loss by 3-points or less. Take New York! |
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09-20-18 | Tulsa +7.5 v. Temple | 17-31 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 42 m | Show | |
3* Tulsa/Temple AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa + Temple is getting way too much respect here against a Tulsa team that is a lot better than most people realize. The Golden Hurricane went just 2-10 last year and are off to a 1-2 start, but one of those losses was on the road to Texas, a game they only lost by 7-points as a 21-point underdog. They let one get away at home this past Saturday against Arkansas State, while Temple avoided an 0-3 start with a shocking 35-14 win at Maryland. I think that's definitely got the number a lot higher than it should be. The Owls were a desperate team going into that game against the Terps and I think Maryland came into that contest with a big head and just thought they were going to roll over Temple at home. Look for the Owls to come back down to earth in this one. Keep in mind they lost at home to both Villanova and Buffalo to start the season. Tulsa has had no problem scoring under head coach Philip Montgomery. Even last year when they lost a ton on the offensive side of the ball they averaged nearly 30 ppg. The big problem has been the defense, but this year's stop unit looks to be much improved over previous versions. After facing a couple of really good offenses in Texas and Arkansas State, I look for them to show out a little bit here on defense against a very mediocre Temple offense. Golden Hurricane are 12-3 ATS as a road dog under Montgomery, including a 10-2 ATS mark against conference opponents. Take Tulsa! |
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09-19-18 | Lightning +1.5 v. Hurricanes | 1-6 | Loss | -200 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Lightning No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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09-19-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 1-10 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
4* AL East TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox UNDER These might be two of the best offenses in the game, but I don't see either of them having much success with tonight's pitching matchup. Boston will send out veteran David Price, while New York gives the ball to ace Luis Severino. Price has been on an absolute tear since July. He's 6-0 with a 2.22 ERA over his last 11 starts. Severino hit a bit of a rough patch, but he's still 17-8 with a 3.46 ERA in 30 starts and owns a 2.86 ERA in 14 home starts. He's fresh off a strong outing at Minnesota and I expect him to step up and deliver one of his better performances against a rival. UNDER is 6-2-1 in Price's last 9 starts and 5-0-1 in the Red Sox's last 6 vs a right-handed starter. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Yankees last 10 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 4-1-1 in Severino's last 6 home starts vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
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09-19-18 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
5* NL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Mets OVER These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. The fact that Noah Syndergaard is on the mound is keeping this number a lot lower than it should be. While Syndergaard is a top notch starter, he's allowed 8 runs on 20 hits and 7 walks in his last 2 starts against the Phillies. As for Philadelphia starter, Zack Eflin, he's lost his form down the stretch. Eflin owns an ugly 6.28 ERA and 1.465 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He's also had a miserable time when matched up with the Mets, as he's 1-3 with a 6.39 ERA in 6 career starts against them. OVER is 5-1 in the Phillies last 6 home games vs a team with a losing record, 5-1 in Efflin's last 6 starts against a division opponent and 3-0-1 in the Mets last 4 after giving up 5 or more runs in their previous game. Take the OVER! |
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09-18-18 | Twins v. Tigers -102 | 5-3 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
4* AL Central PLAY OF THE WEEK on Tigers - Detroit is worth a look here at basically a pick'em at home against the Twins. Minnesota has dropped 26 of their 36 road games in the second half and are just 7-16 on the season when listed as a road favorite of -150 to -100. Jake Odorizzi will take the mound for the Twins in this one and he's just 6-10 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 30 starts. That's good news for Detroit, who have won 5 straight against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Minnesota has also lost each of Odorizzi's last 6 starts on the road. The Tigers will counter with lefty Daniel Norris and the southpaw will have an edge here against the Twins, who have lost 7 straight against a left-handed starter. Minnesota did win the series opener on Monday, but are just 2-9 in their last 11 following a win. Tigers have also won 9 of Norris' last 13 starts against division opponents. Take Detroit! |
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09-17-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -125 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* National League GAME OF THE MONTH on Diamondbacks - The Diamondbacks should have no problem here securing a win at home against the Cubs on Monday. Arizona will have one of the best pitchers in the NL on the mound for this one in Pat Corbin and he comes in lights out of late. He's made 7 quality starts in his last 8 outings and enters with a 2.08 ERA and 1.096 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Corbin has owned the Cubs in his career, going 5-1 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 6 starts. He was sensational in his lone start vs Chicago this year, allowing just 1 run on 6 hits with 9 strikeouts in 7 innings of work. He's also catching the Cubs offense in a bit of a slump. Chicago won 2 of 3 at home against the Reds over the weekend, but managed to score just 5 runs on 16 hits in the series. Kyle Hendricks will take the mound for the Cubs and he's been hit or miss all season, which is why he's just 11-11 with a 3.71 ERA in 30 starts. Most of those struggles have come on the road, where he's got a 3.89 ERA and 1.374 WHIP in 14 starts. Hendricks lasted just 5 innings after giving up 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in his only start against Chicago this season. Take Arizona! |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears -4.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
3* Seahawks/Bears MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Bears - A lot of people are going to look at this line and think we are seeing a big overreaction to the Bears strong showing in Week 1 against the Packers on Sunday Night Football, a game they somehow managed to lose after being up 20-0 in the 2nd half. I think the line is more than justified and you could argue that given the injuries for Seattle this line should be closer to a touchdown. Seattle's offensive line is once again one of the worst in the league and they could be without starting guard D.J. Fluker. The Seahawks front was completely outmatched by Von Miller and the Broncos in Week 1, as Denver sacked Russell Wilson 6 times. Expect more of the same from a Chicago defense front that was already good before they added in former Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack. Note that the Broncos only managed 1 sack on Sunday against Derek Carr and the Raiders. However, it's not so much about how the Bears defense is going to own the Seahawks offensive line, but the fact that Chicago's offense should be able to move the ball against this Seattle defense. The Seahawks gave up 470 total yards and allowed Case Keenum to throw for 329 yards and 3 scores in Week 1. As limited as Tribusky is, with Seattle missing their two star linebackers in Wright and Wagner, Chicago will be able to move the ball on the ground and that should allow for some big plays from Tribusky on play-action. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Bears won this in a blowout. Take Chicago! |
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09-16-18 | Patriots v. Jaguars +2 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 61 h 13 m | Show |
5* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags + This Jaguars team just doesn't get the respect it deserves. Jacksonville had the Patriots on the ropes in last year's AFC Championship Game and that was in New England, where few have been able to just keep games close against the Patriots in the postseason. I like the Jaguars to get their revenge here in Week 2 at home. This is all about the matchup for me and as good as Tom Brady is, I think that Patriots offense is going to have a miserable time moving the ball against this top-tier Jacksonville defense. The Patriots are thin up front on the offensive line. They traded away Nate Soldier, saw their top draft pick in Isaiah Wynn land on IR and now starting right tackle Marcus Cannon is questionable to play. New England also lost running back Jeremy Hill to IR and could be without two of their top backups at running back, as both Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel are questionable. I just don't see the Pats being able to run the ball in this one and that's going to let that loaded Jags front pin their ears and come after Brady. Over the years, the one big neutralizer to Brady and that Pats offense is a great pass rush. Say what you want about Blake Bortles, he picked apart this New England defense last year and I expect him to make enough plays here for the Jaguars to win this game outright. Take Jacksonville! |
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09-16-18 | Dolphins +3 v. Jets | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 58 h 57 m | Show | |
4* AFC East GAME OF THE WEEK on the Dolphins + This game was expected to be around a pick'em until the Jets went on the road and laid it on the Lions 48-17 in an outright win as a 7-point dog. After throwing a pick six on the very first play of his NFL career, Sam Darnold completed 16 of his next 20 attempts for 198 yards and 2 scores. The perception here is that it was an impressive win against a good Lions team, but I'm not so sure Detroit won't finish last in the NFC North this year. The defense for the Jets played outstanding, holding the Lions to just 339 yards and forcing 5 turnovers, but it was revealed after the game that New York basically new what Detroit was running before they snapped the ball. I'm just not buying the defense was as good as it looked. As for Miami, they won 27-20 at home over the Titans and it was an impressive day for Ryan Tannehill, as he was 20 of 28 for 230 yards. The Dolphins also had 120 yards rushing on just 29 attempts. This is a different offense with Tannehill under center. People forget they went 10-6 with him in 2016. I actually think the Dolphins are the better team here, making this an easy play with them catching a field goal. Teams who had a losing record the previous year and are listed as home favorites in conference games are a mere 87-142 ATS since 1983. That's a 62% system in favor of the Dolphins covering. Take Miami! |
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09-16-18 | Chargers v. Bills +8.5 | 31-20 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Bills + The betting public is going to want absolutely nothing to to do with the Bills after how bad they looked in Week 1 against the Ravens. That was on the road against a good Baltimore team. They should be more competitive at home and I liked them going to Josh Allen. The offense couldn't have been any worse than it was with Nathan Peterman at quarterback. Look for them to be able to move the ball here against a Chargers defense that is missing some big pieces. Most notably up front, where Joey Bosa is sidelined with a foot injury and Corey Liuget is serving a 4-game suspension. I'm not saying Buffalo will win the game, but they should be able to keep within this inflated number. Bills are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after allowing 24 or more points in the 1st half of their last game. Chargers on the other hand are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 off a straight up loss, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after allowing 350 or more yards and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Take Buffalo! |
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09-16-18 | Texans v. Titans +3 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
3* NFL Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Titans + The public is all over the Texans in this one and it's created some big time value here with the Titans as a home division dog. Tennessee lost 20-27 at Miami, which is no easy place to play this early in the season and the game got delayed twice. This team is better than people give them credit for and they have gone 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a SU loss and are winning by almost a touchdown on average in this spot. Everyone remembers what Deshaun Watson did last year in his brief stint before being injured and I think they just assume he's going to go right back to being that same guy. I just think it could take some time. He certainly was 17 of 34 for a 176 yards against the Patriots in Week 1. Keep in mind he torched New England for 301 yards and 2 scores on 22 of 33 passing last year. I look for him to struggle again and for the Titans to win this one outright. Take Tennessee! |
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09-16-18 | Eagles v. Bucs +3.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bucs + No one was giving the Bucs a shot at even being competitive against the Saints in Week 1 and they went into New Orleans and won 48-40 behind backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think there's a perception that there's a huge drop-off from Jameis Winston to Fitzpatrick and I'm not so sure there is. Most were quick to just the Saints didn't come to play and that's why Tampa Bay won, but I think that only adds fuel to the fire here the Bucs. Not that they weren't going to show up at home against the defending Super Bowl champs. The Eagles were a bit lucky to win their opener over the Falcons at home. With Wentz still sidelined and some other key players out for Philadelphia, I think they are going to have a tough time matching the intensity of Tampa Bay. I know how good Foles was in the playoffs, but the offense was horrible with him under center in the preseason and it didn't look good against Atlanta. I'll gladly take the points as insurance, but I fully expect the Bucs to win outright. Take Tampa Bay! |
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09-15-18 | Washington v. Utah +172 | 21-7 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Utah
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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09-15-18 | Ohio State v. TCU +14 | 40-28 | Win | 100 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on TCU
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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09-15-18 | USC v. Texas -3 | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 104 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Prime-Time (USC/TEXAS) NO-BRAINER on Texas - This is just too good a price to pass up on the Longhorns at home. There was so much hype around this Texas team in year two under Tom Herman and that balloon was popped in Week 1 when they lost outright as a double-digit favorite at Maryland. They followed that up with a mere 28-21 win at home over Tulsa as a 21-point favorite. Clearly there was a little too much hype on this team, but I also don't think it's time to write them off. They lost to Maryland last year and were a few breaks away from being a 10-win team. That's also a better Terrapins team than people realize. As for the 7-point win against Tulsa, they were up 21-0 with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Maybe they started looking ahead to this game against USC? A game you know they have had circled on the calendar. Not just because it's USC, but they want revenge from last year's crushing 24-27 overtime loss, where they really outplayed Sam Darnold and the Trojans. Darnold is gone and this USC team is down a notch or two from last year. We saw Stanford get their revenge against them last week, holding the Trojans to just 3-points and 332 yards. Freshman quarterback J.T. Daniels looked every bit a freshman on the road and I see no reason not to expect the same thing here. Take Texas! |
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09-15-18 | Colorado State v. Florida UNDER 58.5 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Florida UNDER I just think the number here is way too high on the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between Florida and Colorado State. The Rams defense couldn't have looked much worse in their first two games, as they gave up 43 to Hawaii and 45 to Colorado. I think a lot of that had to do with just how good those two teams are offensively. Colorado State turned around and held Arkansas to just 27 points in a 34-27 outright win as a 14-point dog. They held the Razorbacks scoreless over the final 20+ minutes of that game. Florida put up 53 in their opener against Charleston Southern, but showed their true colors in a 27-16 loss at home to Kentucky. I like Dan Mullen and expect big things from him in Gainesville, but I'm just not a fan of Felipe Franks at quarterback and the fact that he led the team with 44 yards rushing against Kentucky is a huge concern. The key here is I think we are going to see a highly motivated Florida team on the defensive side of the ball off that embarrassing home loss. Colorado State has put up 34 twice against a couple of bad defenses in Hawaii and Arkansas, but only managed 13 against in-state rival Colorado. I just don't see how these teams combine for anywhere close to this number. Take the UNDER! |
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09-15-18 | LSU +10.5 v. Auburn | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 70 h 10 m | Show | |
3* LSU/Auburn SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on LSU + There's just not the same hype around this LSU program as there has been in years past. Not many people gave this team much of a shot against Miami in their opener and they came out with a chip on their shoulder and laid it on the Hurricanes in a 33-17 win. Auburn on the other hand is a team people were high on and the hype around this team only got stronger after they knocked off Washington. I just think we are seeing an inflated number here and too much value with LSU to pass up. I know Auburn has a great defense, but so does LSU, which is no surprise given that Dave Aranda is their defensive coordinator. I know it came against a FCS school, but that same Miami offense LSU held to 17 points put up 77 in their next game, recording the largest margin of victory in school history. I think this is going to turn out to be an old-school defensive battle that could either way in the 4th quarter. All we need is for LSU to lose by 10 or less and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they beat Auburn again (won 27-23 at home last year). LSU is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs a team with a winning home record and closed out last year going a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Take LSU! |
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09-15-18 | Vanderbilt v. Notre Dame -14 | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 114 h 45 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame - I got no problem laying the two touchdowns with the Fighting Irish here at home against the Commodores. Notre Dame is coming off a less than impressive 24-16 win over Ball State last week, a game in which the Fighting Irish were favored to win by 33.5-points. On the flip side of this, Vanderbilt has been impressive in their 2-0 start, taking on Middle Tenn 35-7 as a 3.5-point favorite and Nevada 41-10 as a 10-point favorite. What people are overlooking with Notre Dame's sluggish showing agains the Cardinals, is that was a massive letdown spot after that massive Week 1 game at home against Michigan. At the same time, that Ball State team was way undervalued coming into this season. They went just 2-10 last year, but a lot of that had to do with injuries and they had 16 starters back. As for Vanderbilt, we have seen this story before with this team. Last year everyone was talking about how they were going to give Alabama a run for their money at home after a 3-0 start, but they got annihilated 59-0. A lot of people are putting Notre Dame on upset alert and you can bet Brian Kelly will use that to have his team 100% locked in for this one and that should be all it takes for them to win here in a blowout. Take Notre Dame! |
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09-15-18 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +18 | 37-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 45 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State + The public is going to be all over Oklahoma in this one and I believe the books have set the line here to where they feel ISU has a great shot at covering. The Sooners have looked good in blowout wins over FAU (63-14) and UCLA (49-21). The even bigger thing to why people are falling in love with this team, is Kyler Murray has played really well in place of Heisman winner Baker Mayfield. Murray is a good player, but he struggled with his accuracy at Texas A&M. I think after facing a couple of mediocre defenses, both at home, he's going to find things a lot more difficult against a good ISU defense in what will be quite the atmosphere at Jack Trice Stadium. This Cyclones fan base is extremely loyal and this is the one home game they have been looking forward to since the schedule was released. Keep in mind Oklahoma just lost their top running back in running back Rodney Anderson and this Cyclones defense just held a good Iowa rushing attack to just 105 yards. Sure there's the revenge angle for Oklahoma after ISU won 38-31 in Norman last year. The Sooners may very well get their revenge, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Cyclones pulled off the upset and won outright. Take Iowa State! |
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09-14-18 | Georgia State v. Memphis UNDER 59 | 22-59 | Loss | -112 | 53 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER on Memphis - I think the books have completely missed the mark here with the total for Friday's non-conference slate that has Memphis hosting Georgia State. A lot of people are just going to assume that Memphis is going to light up the scoreboard against this Panthers team after they allowed 41 to NC State last week. That was a very misleading score, as the Tigers added a couple of garbage touchdowns late in that game, one right after Georgia State failed to covert on 4th down and the other after a fumble where they had to go just 12 yards. The Wolfpack also got a field goal on the final play of the 2nd half. I also think people are a little too high on this Memphis offense because they put up 66 in the opener against a bad Mercer team. The offense couldn't make a play when it needed to against a pretty bad Navy defense last week and they simply aren't going to be as potent as they have the last couple of years after losing one of their all-time great quarterbacks in Riley Ferguson. UNDER has cashed in 24 of Georgia State's last 32 games, including 9 of their last 12 on the road and 9 of their last 12 in non-conference play. Take the UNDER! |
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09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals +1.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
4* NFL AFC NORTH GAME OF THE WEEK on Bengals + The books have the wrong team favored in this one. Baltimore couldn't have looked any better in their 47-3 blowout win in Week 1 over the Bills. Props to the Ravens for taking care of business at home, but Buffalo looks like the worst team in the NFL. The Bengals also won in Week 1, as they went on the road and beat Andrew Luck and the Colts 34-23. Yet this is not a team that's getting a lot of love. Most just see that as Cincinnati beating a bad team, but that's much improved Indy team with Luck back under center. I love the fact that the Bengals are getting no respect for that win and in this game, as they are well aware of the Ravens being favored. Baltimore is just 6-16 ATS in their last in their last 22 road games off a win by 21 or more points, while the Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs a team with a winning record and 18-7-2 over their last 27 games played in September. Take Cincinnati! |
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09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest +6.5 | 41-34 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest + There's just too much value here with the Demon Deacons catching almost a touchdown on their home field against their ACC Atlantic rivals in Boston College. The Eagles were expected to be much improved and have looked the part in blowout wins over UMass (55-21) and Holy Cross (62-14). Wake Forest is another team people were high on coming into the year, as Dave Clawson has really done a nice job of turning the program around. However, I think a lot of people jumped off the bandwagon when projected starting quarterback Kendall Hilton was suspended for the first 3 games. I think the book knew the public would be on BC and inflated the line knowing so. This line suggest that BC would be a double-digit favorite over Wake on a neutral field and I'm just not buying it. The loss of Hilton has been eased by the emergence of true freshman Sam Hartman, who has completed 61.5% of his attempts for nearly 8 yards a pop. He's also proven a decent threat on the ground, rushing for 128 yards (5.8 yards/carry) and a score in 2 games. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Wake Forest won this game outright. The Demon Deacons are 22-12 ATS as an underdog under Clawson, 17-7 ATS under Clawson at home and 14-3 under Clawson when coming off a win by 21 or more points. Take Wake Forest! |
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09-12-18 | Rangers +163 v. Angels | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
3* MLB AL WEST PLAY OF THE DAY on Rangers + This is just too good a price to pass up on the Rangers in a division showdown with the Angeles. LA is simply getting way too much respect with Felix Pena on the mound. While Pena does have an impressive 2.70 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in his last 3 starts, he's been awful at home. He's got a 5.85 ERA and 1.392 WHIP in 7 home starts. LA has lost 7 of his last 9 home starts and 7 of his last 10 starts overall. Texas will counter with veteran Yovani Gallardo, who was very effective in a recent start against the Angels. Gallardo faced LA on Aug. 19 and held the Angeles to just 2 runs on 6 hits in a 4-2 win. The Rangers are 7-1 in Gallardo's last 8 starts vs a team with a losing record and 8-3 in his last 11 starts on the road. Take Texas! |
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09-12-18 | Storm v. Mystics -4 | 98-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Mystics
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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09-11-18 | Indians v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 105 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
5* American League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Indians UNDER The Indians and Rays should have no problem going UNDER the mark set by the books. The Rays won the opener 6-5 on Monday and that's worth noting as the UNDER is 14-4 in Cleveland's last 18 games off a 1-run loss. UNDER is also 5-0-1 in the Indians last 6 after scoring 5 or more runs and 5-0-1 in their last 6 after allowing 5+ runs. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Rays last 10 when facing a team that just scored 5 or more runs and 4-1-1 in Tyler Glasnow's last 6 starts. Glasnow comes in with a strong 3.75 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 3 home starts and a 1.29 ERA and 0.429 WHIP in his lone career start against the Indians, which came back on Aug. 31st. Take the UNDER! |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +5 | 33-13 | Loss | -115 | 155 h 55 m | Show | |
4* Rams/Raiders MNF ATS NO-BRAINER on Raiders + The public is all over the Rams in this one, as LA is the talk of the NFL after last year's breakout season and then all the big additions they made in the offseason. I'm not saying the Rams won't be a great team, but I think they could struggle early. They got a lot of new pieces and it's going to take some time for them to gel and learn how to play together. Keep in mind the Rams' starters basically didn't play at all in the preseason. The Raiders on the other hand are a team that I believe will be coming into the season with a chip on their shoulder. No one is giving this team much of a shot, especially after they traded away one of the best defensive players in the game in Khalil Mack. I still got a lot of confidence in Gruden's ability as a head coach. He's going to bring a power-running game to Oakland, which I think will work wonders for getting Derek Carr back on track. It's also worth pointing out that these Week 1 home dogs on Monday Night Football have not been great at just covering, but winning the game outright. Look for the Raiders to keep it close and potentially steal this one late. Take Oakland! |
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09-10-18 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9 | 6-10 | Win | 102 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
3* MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE DAY on Dodgers OVER The Reds and Dodgers should have no problem combining for double-digit runs in tonight's series opener. Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park is one of the top hitter parks in the league and we could see LA's high-powered offense eclipse this total on their own. The Dodgers are coming off a 9-run outburst in Sunday's series finale against the Rockies and will be up against the Reds Cody Reed, who has a 7.10 ERA and 1.736 WHIP in 3 starts. He was rocked in his last outing at Pittsburgh, giving up 6 runs on 9 hits in 5 innings. LA will have lefty Alex Wood on the mound and while he's a decent pitcher, the Reds are locked in at the plate. They put up 25 runs over their final 3 games against the Padres. OVER is 10-4-1 in Cincinnati's last 15 home games vs a left-handed starter and 21-8-2 in their last 31 at home vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! |
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09-09-18 | Giants v. Brewers -135 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line MASSACRE on Brewers - Milwaukee has already won the first two games of the series and are a red-hot 8-2 in their last 10. I look for them to have no problem finishing off the sweep of San Francisco on Sunday. While the Brewers are surging down the stretch, the Giants have lost 6 straight. SF will have their ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound, but he's just 2-3 with an ugly 4.73 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 9 road starts. Last time out he gave up 7 runs on 8 hits at Colorado. Look for Zach Davies to be the better starter in this one, in large part because he's going up against a struggling Giants offense that has scored 3 or fewer runs in 9 of their last 11 games. Brewers have won 9 of Davies' last 12 home starts against a team with a losing record, while the Giants have dropped 13 of Bumgarner's last 18 road starts. Take Milwaukee! |
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09-09-18 | Bengals v. Colts -3 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -105 | 482 h 27 m | Show |
5* NFL Opening Week GAME OF THE YEAR on Colts - This is just too good a price to pass up on Indianapolis at home. The Colts should have no problem here taking down the Bengals in Week 1. There's no doubt in my mind that Indy is going to be one of the most improved teams in the league with Andrew Luck back healthy at quarterback. I just think he hasn't played in so long that people are skeptical of taking them. The Colts are 26-11 SU and 24-12 ATS with Luck as a starter in home games. On the flip side of this, Bengals' starter, Andy Dalton, is a mere 15-25 in 40 career starts as an underdog. I've never really been a big fan of Dalton and there's just not a ton to like about this Cincinnati team, especially on offense. Last year the Bengals averaged just 18.1 ppg and were dead last in the NFL at 280.5 yards/game. They didn't do anything well, ranking 27th in passing and 31st in rushing. Little was done to improve that side of the ball. The defense also wasn't great (ranked bottom half of the league in both scoring and total defense) and has been on the decline ever since Mike Zimmer left to be the head coach at Minnesota. Not to mention they will be without their best defender for the first four games in Vontaze Burfict (suspended). Take Indianapolis! |
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09-09-18 | Bills +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 3-47 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 50 m | Show |
5* AFC Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bills + Buffalo is a team the public wants absolutely nothing to do with going into the season and there's no question the books have inflated this line on the Ravens. A lot of people were way down on the Bills last year, especially after they traded away the likes of Sammy Watkins, Ronald Darby, Reggie Ragland and Marcell Dareus. All this team did was finish 9-7 and snap a 17-year playoff drought, making it in as a Wild Card. While Buffalo does lose starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor, the team is confident that Nathan Peterman can hold the fort down until rookie Josh Allen is ready to take over. Peterman had a rough go of things after he was force into action as a rookie last year, but he looked sharp in the preseason, completing 33 of 41 (80%) of his attempts for 431 yards with a 3-1 TD-INT ratio. Buffalo won a lot of games last year leaning on their running game and a defense that forced 25 takeaways. They know how to win sloppy and I expect them to hang around against a Ravens team that isn't known for blowing out opponents. Ravens are just 18-21 ATS as a home favorite with Joe Flacco as their quarterback and the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 season openers and were a perfect 3-0 ATS in September last season. Take Buffalo! |
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -6 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 133 h 36 m | Show | |
4* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Vikings - There's a lot of excitement around this 49ers team after how they finished the 2017 season once Jimmy Garoppolo took over as the starer. I just think it's a major overreaction and has San Francisco way overvalued to start out 2018. I certainly don't see them extending that win streak on the road against one of the elite teams in the NFC. You can be sure the Vikings have heard all the hype around Garoppolo and that 49ers team. Not that you need any extra fuel for a season-opener, but I think Minnesota will be out to make a statement in this one. Keep in mind the Vikings have 10 starters back from a defense that was the best in the NFL last year. They were No. 1 in total defense (275.9 ypg) and No. 1 in scoring defense (15.8 ypg). Not to mention the one starter they lost was defensive tackle Tom Johnson and they replaced him with a former Pro Bowler in Sheldon Richardson. It's also worth pointing out that Minnesota's defense only gave up 13.8 ppg and 261 ypg at home last year, where they went 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS. I also don't think the 49ers defense will be able to slow down the Vikings new look offense that now has Kirk Cousins as their starting QB. I look for home team to pull away early and win here by double-digits. Take Minnesota! |
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09-09-18 | Bucs +10 v. Saints | 48-40 | Win | 100 | 131 h 21 m | Show | |
3* NFL No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Bucs + The Saints are getting way too much love here from the books in Week 1. I get New Orleans is great at home and are considered a legit Super Bowl contender, but no way should they be laying double-digits against a division rival. Tampa Bay will be without starting quarterback Jameis Winston, who is suspended, but I think this team will be able to move the ball behind talented veteran backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, who had a 7-3 TD-INT ratio in limited action last year. He's got two big time weapons at wide receiver in Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, plus two talented tight ends in Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard. I also think people are overlooking this Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs are loaded up front after bringing in Jason Pierre-Paul to team up with Pro Bowl defensive tackle Gerald McCoy. I'm not saying they are going to shutdown Brees and the Saints offense, but I think they get enough stops to keep it close. Take Tampa Bay! |
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09-09-18 | Jaguars v. Giants +3 | 20-15 | Loss | -100 | 122 h 41 m | Show | |
3* NFL Week 1 ATS SHOCKER on Giants + I think we are seeing a big overreaction with this line based on how these teams finished up last season. The Jaguars finally broke through in 2017, winning the AFC South and nearly took out the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. The Giants were a complete mess and finished just 3-13, but are primed for a big bounce back season and should not be a dog at home. Everyone is expecting the Giants offense to be improved with a healthy OBJ and the addition of prized rookie running back Saquon Barkley, but it's more than that. They also made some big improvements on the offensive line. New head coach Pat Shurmur is also one of the top offensive minds in the league and was the guy responsible for making Case Keenum look like a top tier signal caller last year with the Vikings. The improved running game is going to do wonders for the Giants defense, who I think will thrive in their new 3-4 look. They should be able to hold their own against a very average Jaguars offense, which is still going to be limited by quarterback Blake Bortles. Take New York! |
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09-08-18 | Rice +18 v. Hawaii | 29-43 | Win | 100 | 65 h 49 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Rice + Hawaii has been one of the biggest surprises in the early goings of 2018. The Rainbow Warriors went on the road in Week Zero and took out Colorado State 43-34 as a 17-point dog. They then came back and knocked off Navy 59-41 as a 13.5-point dog. Two outright wins as a double-digit dogs will definitely get the attention of the books and now we see Hawaii laying 3 scores against Rice at home. I think this is a huge overreaction and it's a lot different going into the fight as the heavy favorite compared to the underdog. A lot of people will just expect them to keep it going against a Rice team went 1-11 last year, especially after the Owns barely snuck by Priarie View in their opener 31-28 and lost at home to Houston 27-45. I was actually really impressed with how well Rice played against a good Houston team. The Owls were in that game late and actually led 27-17 midway through the 3rd quarter. They put up 439 yards against a talented Houston defense. It looks like they have found something in Vandy grad transfer Shawn Stankavage, who was 20 of 31 for 204 yards and 3 scores against the Cougars. Hawaii is going to put up points with that air-raid offense, but they are also going to give up a lot of points. They allowed 34 to Colorado State and 41 to Navy. Note that Colorado State managed just 13 points and 284 total yards in their next game against Colorado. If the Warriors aren't careful, they could go from winning as a double-digit dog to losing as a double-digit favorite. Take Rice! |
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09-08-18 | Michigan State v. Arizona State +7 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 95 h 12 m | Show | |
4* Prime-Time (ESPN) GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State + A lot of people are going to be quick to make excuses for Michigan State and their sloppy showing in their home opener against Utah State, where they were fortunate to walk away with a 38-31 win as a massive 23.5-point favorite. They will say the Spartans are slow-starters and didn't give the Aggies their full attention with this big game on deck. I'm not buying it. I expect another sloppy showing from Michigan State. People don't realize how hard it is for these midwest teams to travel out west and the Big Ten has had more than their fair share of troubles when having to play on the road against the Pac-12. You also can't ignore how good the Sun Devils looked in their opener against UTSA, which was also the debut for new head coach Herm Edwards. Not many people were high on Arizona State going into this season and I think that lack of respect has this team playing hungry and flying way under the radar. They demolished the Roadrunners 49-7, while outgaining UTSA by 283 yards. The defense allowed a mere 2 rushing yards on 34 attempts and forced 3 turnovers. If they can slow down Michigan State's running game, which struggled to get going against Utah St, they not only will cover this spread, but they will win the game outright. Take Arizona State! |
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09-08-18 | UTEP +24 v. UNLV | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -111 | 103 h 50 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP + After going on the road and giving USC a scare in their opener, were within 5 at the half and covered the 24.5-point spread, the public is going to be all over the Rebels against a UTEP team that went 0-12 last year and started out 2018 with an ugly 30-10 loss at home to Northern Arizona. What they won't factor in is how hard it's going to be for UNLV to avoid a letdown after that game against the Trojans. All they have been thinking about for months was that game with USC to open the season. It only makes it that much harder to bounce back when you feel like you had a shot at winning the game. Not to mention, it how difficult it has to be to take this UTEP team seriously given how bad they have been. We got numbers to back this theory up. UNLV is a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games when they are coming off a cover where they lost as an underdog. I'm not saying the Rebels won't win this game, but it's going to be a lot closer than everyone is expecting. Take UNLV! |
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09-08-18 | Fresno State +3 v. Minnesota | 14-21 | Loss | -115 | 60 h 29 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Fresno State + I expect the public to be all over Minnesota here, as they won't be able to help themselves but take a Big Ten team laying less than a field goal at home against a team from the MWC. Especially after the Gophers annihilated New Mexico State 48-10 as a 22.5-point favorite this past Saturday. That performance against the Aggies is nothing to be excited about. New Mexico State is way down this year. They were missing a ton of starters on defense and that's the same offense that managed 135 total yards against Wyoming in 'Week Zero.' That same Wyoming defense gave up 41 points to a Washington State that only had 4 starters back on offense. The other thing that stands out to me is the play of Gophers new true freshman quarterback Zack Annexstad. He threw for 220 yards and 2 scores, but was a mere 16 of 33 passing. Luckily Minnesota had their way on the ground (295 yards on 47 attempts). The thing is, they aren't going to be able to run all over Fresno State. The Bulldogs have 7 starters back from a defense that only gave up 113 rushing yards/game and 3.4 yards/carry last year. Annexstad and the Gophers offense is going to be forced into a lot more passing situations and that's going to be a problem. The Bulldogs put up 79 points in their opener against Idaho and should have one of their better offenses in recent memory with 8 starters back. I think they do more than enough here to get a win on the road against Minnesota. Bulldogs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-confernce games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog. Take Fresno State! |
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09-08-18 | Iowa State v. Iowa UNDER 49 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 95 h 41 m | Show | |
4* In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE WEEK on Iowa UNDER I'm expecting a low-scoring matchup on Saturday when the Cyclones travel across the state to take on in-state rival Iowa. The Cyclones didn't even get to play a full quarter before their opener against South Dakota State was canceled because of weather. The Hawkeyes meanwhile overcame a sluggish start to defeat Northern Illinois 33-7. The Hawkeyes only had 3 points just about midway thru the 3rd quarter before they exploded for 30 in the final 23 minutes of regulation. Despite a talented quarterback in Nathan Stanley, this is still your same old Iowa offense that wants to ground and pound their way down the field. I think they are going to have a really tough time moving the ball against a Cyclones defense that has 6 starters back from a stop unit that only allowed 20.9 ppg in 2017. As for Iowa State and their offense, they caught a tough break not being able to work out the kinks against a FCS team in their opener. I think they too will struggle to score. Kinnick Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, especially when it's a late kickoff like this. Last 5 times the Cyclones have visited Iowa City, they have failed to score more than 20 points in any game and were held to single-digits in 4 of 5 meetings. Iowa held a Northern Illinois team that many think are the favorites to win the MAC, to just 7 points and 211 total yards. That's pretty impressive given the Huskies returned 8 starters from a unit that averaged 28.9 ppg and 378 ypg last year. Take the UNDER! |
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09-08-18 | Rangers +159 v. A's | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line DESTROYER on Rangers + Great price here on Texas as a big road dog against the A's on Saturday. The Rangers are going to be highly motivated off a loss in yesterday's opener and I think they have a great shot here at getting a win. Oakland's Edwin Jackson has a 2.91 ERA on the season, but is trending in the wrong direction. Jackson has a 4.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Rangers have hit Jackson hard the two times they have faced him this season, scoring 9 runs on 14 hits in 8 2/3 innings. Rangers will have lefty Yohander Mendez on the mound for this one and Oakland has lost 4 of their last 5 vs a left-handed starter. Take Texas! |
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09-08-18 | Memphis -6.5 v. Navy | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 58 m | Show | |
4* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis - I don't see the Tigers having any problem here winning by at least double-digits on the road against Navy. I think a lot of people are sleeping on this Memphis team due to the fact that they lost a really good quarterback in Riley Ferguson, but look out for junior Brady White, who is a grad transfer from Arizona State (Memphis head coach Mike Norvell was the OC when White first started out with ASU). I know it came against Mercer, but it's hard to ignore his stat line in the opener. White was 22 of 28 for 358 yards and 5 scores. The Tigers also rushed for 324 yards. Keep in mind this is an offense that averaged 45.5 ppg and 532 ypg last year and 7 starters back. The Midshipmen had no answer for Hawaii's high-flying offense in their opener, as the Rainbow Warriors put up 59 in an 18-point win as a 13.5-point dog. Hawaii's Cole McDonald completed 30 of 41 for 428 yards and 6 touchdowns. Memphis has 8 starters back on defense in what is their 3rd season under defensive coordinator Chris Ball. They should be greatly improved on that side of the ball and they looked sharp in the opener, holding Mercer to just 174 total yards and 8 first downs. I think they are going to be ready for that triple-option and Navy is not a team that can play from behind. Take Memphis! |
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09-07-18 | TCU v. SMU +22.5 | 42-12 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 19 m | Show | |
3* TCU/SMU Friday Night ATS DESTROYER on SMU + Analysis will be posted shortly |
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09-07-18 | Indians v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
4* MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE DAY on Indians UNDER I'm expecting a pitcher's duel Friday night in Toronto with Carlos Carrasco facing off against Marco Estrada and we are getting some exceptional value with the high total posted by the books. The Blue Jays figure to have a hard time getting anything going against Carrasco, who is 7-4 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.012 WHIP in 13 road starts. I know Estrada's numbers aren't for 2018, but this guy knows how to pitch and the Indians offense has been very inconsistent of late. Cleveland hasn't scored more than 3 runs in back-to-back games in almost 2 weeks, so I'm not all that concerned with them scoring 9 runs yesterday. UNDER is 9-3-2 in the Indians last 14 games against team with a losing record, 10-4-3 in their las 17 vs a right-handed starter and 8-3-1 in their last 12 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. UNDER is also 4-1-1 in Estrada's last 6 starts at home vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
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09-07-18 | Padres +150 v. Reds | 6-12 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Padres
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in announced lineups and weather conditions. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. |
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09-06-18 | Falcons +3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 12-18 | Loss | -119 | 217 h 36 m | Show |
5* Falcons/Eagles Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Falcons + It's just a given that the defending Super Bowl champ is going to be overvalued on the spread the following season. I know this line has dropped some with Wentz not playing, but I still think there's a lot of value with Atlanta. Nick Foles put on a ridiculous performance last year filling in for Wentz, but this guy has been hit or miss his whole career. I think we already saw signs of things not being as good as they were a season ago. I know it's the preseason and you can't overreact to what you see, but the Eagles offense was dreadful when Foles was under center. Add in he's not going to have one of his top wide outs in Alshon Jeffery, who is out with a shoulder injury, and how talented this Falcons defense is, I think the struggles continue in Week 1. Keep in mind Atlanta will be out for blood in this one after losing to the Eagles in the playoffs, a game they have to feel like they should have won. I also think the Falcons offense is flying way under the radar. They weren't nearly as bad as people made them out to be in 2017. They got all their top weapons back, plus used their 1st round pick on Alabama's Calvin Ridley, who looks like the real deal. As good as the Eagles defense was, I think the Falcons are able to move the ball and ultimately win this game. Take Atlanta! |
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09-06-18 | Cubs +104 v. Nationals | 6-4 | Win | 104 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
4* National League GAME OF THE WEEK on Cubs + This is too good a price to pass up on Chicago in Thursday's series opener against the Nationals. The Cubs recently acquired Daniel Murphy in a trade from Washington. He's going to want to show out against the team that shipped him away and I look for the entire Cubs team to be a little extra focused in this one. Chicago was able to avoid getting swept at Milwaukee with a 6-4 win on Wednesday and are 7-3 in their last 10 off a win. The Cubs will have Kyle Hendricks on the mound. He's got a 1.35 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Chicago has won 6 of his last 7 starts and Hendricks is 5-0 in his last 5 starts off a Quality Start in his last outing. Washington will have Stephen Strasburg on the mound, but he's been pretty mediocre this season. Strasburg is just 7-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 17 starts. He's got a 5.40 ERA in 10 home starts and a 5.06 ERA over his last 3. Cubs have also won 20 of their last 28 games against a right-handed starter. Take Chicago! |
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09-05-18 | Tigers v. White Sox -148 | 10-2 | Loss | -148 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
4* AL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on White Sox - Chicago should have no problem bouncing back from yesterday's 8-3 loss to the Tigers. While the White Sox come in with an overall record of just 56-83, they have been playing like a playoff contender since the middle of August. Chicago is 14-7 over their last 21 games and not once during this stretch have they lost back-to-back games. Detroit on the other hand is a mere 6-14 over their last 20 and have not won back-to-back during this stretch. Hard to not like the White Sox coming away with a win given the starting pitching matchup on Wednesday. The Tigers will turn to veteran Jordan Zimmermann, who is just 2-3 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.306 WHIP in 10 road starts. Zimmermann also owns an ugly 6.40 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in 12 career starts against Chicago. The White Sox will counter with highly touted prospect Michael Kopech, who has posted a 0.82 ERA in his first 3 starts. The best of those outings coming against these Tigers, where he allowed just 1 run over 6 innings in a 7-2 win. Detroit is a mere 19-49 in their last 68 road games, 21-49 in their last 70 coming off a win and 0-4 in Zimmermann's last 4 road starts. Take Chicago! |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 55.5 | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 297 h 17 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Labor Day Total DESTROYER on Virginia Tech/Florida State UNDER I think a lot of people are going to look at how little these two teams have coming back defensively and be quick to back the OVER. While both FSU and Virginia Tech will lack experience on defense, these are two top notch programs that recruit extremely well. I expect both teams to be just fine defensively this year. I also think we have two solid defensive coordinators that will have their units ready to go with all the extra time they have had to prepare for this game. Virginia Tech's Bud Foster has been doing this for ever and I really like new FSU defensive coordinator Harlon Barnett, who spent the last 3 years at Michigan State. UNDER is 35-17 in Virginia Tech's last 52 conference games and 20-7 in Florida State's last 27 vs ACC opponents. Take the UNDER! |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Labor Day ATS NO-BRAINER on Va Tech + Florida State is getting way too much respect here against the Hokies. The Seminoles took a turn for the worse in 2017, as they managed to go just 7-6 and were lucky to finish with a winning record after a dreadful 3-6 start. Most are just assuming that FSU will bounce back and return to elite status, but I don't think that's going to be the case. Not to take anything away from Willie Taggart, but he's not on the same level as Jimbo Fisher. In fact, Taggart has a losing record at 47-50 over 8 seasons as a head coach. With a new head coach comes scheme changes and the players that are left over don't always fit the new systems. I just have a lot more trust in Virginia Tech coming out and playing well. The Hokies will be in year 3 under head coach Justin Fuente and he backed up his 10-4 debut season with a 9-4 record in 2017. Va Tech's offense should be explosive with 7 starters back , including talented sophomore quarterback Joshua Jackson. The Hokies do lose a lot defensively, but I don't think the drop off will be as big as some are expecting. FSU loses just as much defensively and I have a lot more confidence in Virginia Tech's offense being able to stay on the field and finish off drives with touchdowns. Take Virginia Tech! |
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09-03-18 | Toronto +9 v. Hamilton | 28-42 | Loss | -115 | 165 h 38 m | Show | |
4* CFL Big Money PLAY OF THE WEEK on Toronto + I think the books have completely missed the mark with the spread for today's CFL action between Toronto and Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats are just 4-5 on the season and have no business being a near double-digit favorite against the Argonauts. Toronto has won 3 of the last 4 meetings in the series with the lone loss coming by a mere 2-points on the road. The Argonauts did lose and fail to cover in their last game, but are 5-2 in their last 7 after failing to cover in their previous game and are 17-8 in their last 25 in September. The Tigers-Cats are also not a team that plays up to their potential at home, where they have covered just 4 of their last 19 games. We also find a strong system in play favoring the Argonauts, as underdogs who have a losing record and are off an upset loss as a favorite to a division rival are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1996. Take Toronto! |
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09-03-18 | Phillies v. Marlins +140 | 1-3 | Win | 140 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Marlins + This is too good a price to pass up on Miami at home against the slumping Phillies. Philadelphia just lost 2 of 3 at home to the Cubs and are just 4-10 in their last 14 overall. Not to mention, Phillies starter Vincent Velasquez isn't exactly the kind of starter that you can count on. He's a mere 8-9 with a 4.08 ERA in 25 starts and comes in with a 4.77 ERA and 1.589 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Miami will counter with Jose Urena, who hasn't pitched up to his potential this season, but does enter this game with a solid 3.00 ERA and sensational 0.867 WHIP in his last 3 starts. We also see that the Phillies are a mere 1-6 in Velasquez's last 7 road starts, and 1-7 in their last 8 as a team in a series opener. Take Miami! |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL v. LSU +3.5 | Top | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 372 h 52 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on LSU + I have LSU winning this game outright, making this a no-brainer with the Tigers getting 3.5-points. Miami is coming off a solid season in which they started out 10-0, but they lost their last 3 all by double-digits. There's definitely reason to get excited about the direction of the program, but I think people are getting a little too carried away. LSU is coming off a 9-4 season and yet no one is talking about them in the SEC. The Tigers aren't exactly use to flying under the radar, but I think that makes them a dangerous team. I also don't think you can overlook how good the SEC has looked as a whole in Week 1. The only team to lose their opener was Tennessee, which is a complete mess right now. Auburn defeated No. 6 Washington and Alabama rolled Louisville 51-14 in the other marquee matchup. I look for the Tigers defense to be the difference in this one, as there are few better than LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. As long as the offense takes care of the ball, the Tigers have the potential to take control of this game early and win here in convincing fashion. Either way, I like them to keep it within a field goal. Take LSU! |
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09-02-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -153 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
3* MLB Money Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Dodgers - This is an easy play on the Dodgers for me. LA has won each of the last two games in the series and are 7-1 over their last 8 games. While the Dodgers are streaking in the right direction, Arizona has dropped 6 of their last 9. The Diamondbacks struggles of late are a direct result of the offense not producing. Arizona has scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 straight games and have totaled 6 or fewer hits in 5 of those. I don't see the offense coming to life against Dodgers starter Walker Buehler, who is now 6-3 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 17 starts. Buehler also has a 1.65 ERA in 9 starts at home and a 1.59 ERA in his last 3 outings overall. Take Los Angeles! |
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09-01-18 | Louisville v. Alabama OVER 55.5 | Top | 14-51 | Win | 100 | 419 h 47 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Louisville/Alabama OVER I don't see anyway the final score between Alabama and Louisville stays UNDER 65 points. Other sharps couldn't agree more, as this total has grown quite a bit from the original number. Over the last 5 years, the Crimson Tide's lowest scoring average for a season is 35.1 ppg, which is pretty impressive given they have been primarily a running team. Last year they averaged 37.1 ppg and averaged 251 ypg on the ground and just 193 ypg through the air. Alabama is still going to run all over people, especially with the talent they have coming back at running back and how stacked they are on the offensive line. They are also going to exploit teams through the air behind sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. I know it's up in the air whether Tua or Jalen Hurts will start, but I expect Tagovailoa to get most of the reps. Not to mention the Crimson Tide will be going up against a Louisville defense that returns just 4 starters from a unit that wasn't very good in 2017. Scoring on Alabama is never an easy task, as they routinely have one of the best defenses in the country. They will be strong again on that side of the ball, but they do only have 3 starters back. I also think Louisville's offense isn't getting near the respect they deserve because of the fact that they lost Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals have some legit playmakers at receiver and sophomore Juwan Pass is extremely talented (No. 7 recruit at his position coming out of high school). I see this being a shootout and that's been the case in recent years for Alabama in these neutral site games. The OVER is 21-8 in the Crimson Tide's last 29 games played on a neutral field. Take the OVER! |
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09-01-18 | Michigan v. Notre Dame OVER 47.5 | 17-24 | Loss | -115 | 418 h 28 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Michigan/Notre Dame OVER There's been plenty of talk going around about how good this Michigan defense is going to be in 2018, so the public is going to be drawn to playing the UNDER in their games, especially against a top tier team like Notre Dame, who is returning 9 starters from a defense that only gave up 21.5 ppg last year. While I'm not about to say that these two teams won't be as good as advertised on defense, I think it's got the total way to low given the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball. In Jim Harbaugh's first 3 years at Michigan, the Wolverines have got average to below-average play out of the quarterback position. That's no longer going to be the case with Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson now the starter. As for how the Notre Dame offense will be able to score against this Michigan defense. One of the toughest things for elite defenses is to defend mobile quarterbacks and the Irish have one of the best dual-threats in the country in Brandon Wimbush. They are also a lot more talented on the offensive line than people are giving them credit for after losing two 1st round draft picks. I think both teams are going to have some explosive plays offensively that lead to quick scores. I also think we could see some turnovers by both teams that lead to quick scores, which will ultimately push this OVER the mark. Keep in mind, despite the less than stellar QB play, the OVER is 24-14-1 in Michigan games since Harbaugh came to town. OVER is also 7-1-1 in the Wolverine's last 9 non-conference games and a perfect 4-0 in Notre Dame's last 4 vs a team from the Big Ten. Take the OVER! |
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09-01-18 | Reds +142 v. Cardinals | 4-0 | Win | 142 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Reds + This is just too good a price to pass up on Cincinnati in game 2 of their 3 games series with the Cardinals. No surprise here that St Louis is being overvalued here after they won easily 12-5 on Friday, but it's simply not justified. Cincinnati has the offensive fire-power to go off in any game. I know Cardinals starter Daniel Poncedeleon has been great in his first two career starts, but it's only a matter a time before he slips up. A key thing here that I think will get overlooked is one of those two starts came against the Reds. Look for Cincinnati to have a much better approach against Poncedeleon this time around. Reds' starter Luis Castillo hasn't been great in 2018, but I like his chances of delivering a strong outing here. It's exactly what he's done in each of his last two starts against the Cardinals this season. He held them to 2 runs in 5 innings in a 8-2 Reds win on 7/14 and was even better the next time, allowing just 1 run in 5 1/3 innings of a 2-1 win. Take Cincinnati! |
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09-01-18 | Cincinnati v. UCLA OVER 59 | 26-17 | Loss | -110 | 418 h 49 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on UCLA OVER If there's one thing we learned with Chip Kelly in his stint with the NFL, he's going to run his up-tempo offensive attack regardless of the talent on hand. Win or lose, UCLA is going to push the pace offensively this year. With a defense that doesn't have near the talent as year's past, it's going to ultimately lead to a lot of high-scoring games. So while this might seem like a high total for this matchup, I don't think it's anywhere close to what it should be. I look for UCLA and Cincinnati to fly over the mark here. One of the reasons this total isn't higher, is the fact that Cincinnati has really struggled offensively the past two seasons. The Bearcats averaged just 19.3 ppg in 2016 and barely improved to 20.9 ppg last year. However, I'm expecting big improvements in year two under offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock and more than anything the UCLA defense is going to give up a ton of yards and points with how much they are going to be on the field. As a head coach at Oregon, the OVER went 32-15 when Kelly's Ducks were listed as the favorite and 19-5 at home. I expect more of the same now that he's a Bruin. Take the OVER! |
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09-01-18 | Northern Illinois v. Iowa -10 | Top | 7-33 | Win | 100 | 414 h 20 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa - Iowa's not a program that gets a ton of respect nationally, which is why they are a profitable 124-108 ATS since Kirk Ferentz took over as head coach. The Hawkeyes are getting no love once again in 2018 and I think they are showing tremendous value here as a mere 10-point favorite at home against a team from the MAC. Not to take anything away from Northern Illinois, which has quite the track record over the last decade, but they are just 21-18 over the last 3 seasons. Outlets are calling for them to be one of the top teams in the MAC this year, but I think a lot of that has to do with the conference being down a little. This reminds me a lot of last year when Iowa opened against Wyoming. A lot of people were on the Cowboys as a 12-point dog, but the Hawkeyes easily covered in a 24-3 victory. The Hawkeyes are known for fielding a team that can run the football and are always strong on the defensive side of the ball. That won't change in 2018, but I expect a much more balanced offensive attack behind one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Nathan Stanley, who will be throwing to arguably the best tight end in college football in Noah Fantz (projected 1st round pick). While Iowa does lose their top 3 linebackers, they are very strong up front on the defensive line and Northern Illinois is a team that doesn't have a great passing attack. I just don't see the Huskies keeping pace as I have the Hawkeyes winning here by 20+ points. Take Iowa -10! |
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09-01-18 | West Virginia v. Tennessee +10.5 | 40-14 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Tennessee + To no surprise, the public is all over West Virginia in this one. There's a ton of hype around the Mountaineers due to the fact that they bring back one of the top quarterbacks in the country in Will Grier. Not to mention, nobody wants anything to do with the Volunteers, who are coming off a disastrous 4-8 campaign in 2017 and are undergoing a coaching change. All of this has Tennessee extremely undervalued and I'll gladly take the points with the Vols in this one. What a lot of people are overlooking with Tennessee is just how much talent they have on their roster. Butch Jones might not have been a great head coach, but the guy could recruit. That's why there's been so much hype around this team the past few seasons. It was laughable how the coaching search went, but in the end I like who they got. Jeremy Pruitt was the defensive coordinator at Alabama the past two years and he's going to change the culture in Knoxville. He's going to have his team fired up for this game and I wouldn't be shocked if they won the game outright. A big reason for that is I think they can go score for score with Grier and that West Virginia offense, as the Mountaineers only have 5 starters back from a defense that allowed 31.5 ppg. Not to mention they lose arguably their two best players. Take Tennessee! |
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08-31-18 | Rockies v. Padres +125 | 0-7 | Win | 125 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
4* MLB Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Padres + The Padres come into this game having won 3 straight, including a thrilling 3-2 win in extra innings last night in the series opener against the Rockies. While San Diego will take the field with a ton of confidence, Colorado is in a bit of a rut, as they have lost 3 of 4 and scored 3 or fewer runs in all 3 losses. With the way the offense is struggling, I think the Rockies are going to have a difficult time coming away with a win here, as the Padres figure to score early and often against the struggling Antonio Senzatela who has a 5.24 ERA in 4 road starts and a 5.87 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Colorado is 2-8 in Senzatela's last 10 road starts and 0-4 in his last 4 outings vs a team with a losing record. Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 4-1 in their last 5 at home vs a team with a winning record. Take San Diego! |
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08-31-18 | Western Kentucky v. Wisconsin OVER 51 | 3-34 | Loss | -107 | 94 h 50 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK on Wisconsin/WKU OVER I'm not sure what the books are thinking by setting the total this low, but I will gladly jump on the OVER. In Wisconsin's last 3 home openers, they have eclipsed the total set here on their own. The Badgers put up 58 on Miami (OH) in 2015, 54 two years ago against Akron and 59 last season against Utah State. I think there's a really good chance that trend continues. Wisconsin returns 9 starters on offense, including junior quarterback Alex Hornibrook, running back Jonathan Taylor (Heisman candidate) and all 5 starters on what many believe is the best unit in the country. WKU simply doesn't have the size or talent on defense to keep Wisconsin from doing whatever they want in this one. I also think we could see the Hilltoppers score a few more points than expected. While WKU only has 3 starters back on offense, they should actually be improved on that side of the ball, as last year's unit was a complete mess. They will also be up against an inexperienced Wisconsin defense, which could struggle early on with only 4 starters back from last year. Note that the Badgers have already lost two projected starters up front in defensive ends Garrett Rand and Isaiahh Loudermilk. Take the OVER! |
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Jimmy Boyd ALL Sports Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots UNDER 51.5 | 24-38 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 55 m | Show | |
10-04-18 | Jets -105 v. Blues | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
10-04-18 | Georgia State +17.5 v. Troy | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
10-04-18 | Bruins v. Sabres +1.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -220 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
10-03-18 | A's +163 v. Yankees | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
10-03-18 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -240 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 21 m | Show | |
10-02-18 | Rockies v. Cubs UNDER 7.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 191 h 36 m | Show | |
09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 51 | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 96 h 41 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Saints v. Giants +3.5 | 33-18 | Loss | -105 | 88 h 50 m | Show | |
09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | 10-48 | Win | 105 | 84 h 22 m | Show | |
09-29-18 | BYU v. Washington -16.5 | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 120 h 25 m | Show | |
09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State +4 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 60 h 44 m | Show |
09-29-18 | Stanford v. Notre Dame OVER 52 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 48 h 23 m | Show | |
09-29-18 | South Carolina +2 v. Kentucky | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 60 h 33 m | Show | |
09-29-18 | BC +7 v. Hamilton | 10-40 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 56 m | Show | |
09-29-18 | Old Dominion +7 v. East Carolina | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 44 h 17 m | Show | |
09-28-18 | Memphis -14 v. Tulane | 24-40 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
09-27-18 | Vikings +6.5 v. Rams | 31-38 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 42 m | Show | |
09-27-18 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL UNDER 56.5 | 10-47 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 49 m | Show | |
09-26-18 | Dodgers -115 v. Diamondbacks | 2-7 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
09-25-18 | Brewers +104 v. Cardinals | 12-4 | Win | 104 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
09-24-18 | Rangers v. Angels UNDER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 52.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 168 h 48 m | Show | |
09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions +7 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 144 h 53 m | Show | |
09-23-18 | 49ers +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -105 | 100 h 7 m | Show |
09-23-18 | Colts +7 v. Eagles | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 9 m | Show | |
09-22-18 | Arkansas v. Auburn -29 | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
09-22-18 | Michigan State -4 v. Indiana | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 48 h 18 m | Show | |
09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +22 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 70 h 31 m | Show |
09-22-18 | UNLV v. Arkansas State -7 | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
09-22-18 | Charlotte +10 v. UMass | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 39 m | Show | |
09-22-18 | Virginia Tech v. Old Dominion +29 | 35-49 | Win | 100 | 66 h 54 m | Show | |
09-22-18 | Boston College v. Purdue +7 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 75 h 9 m | Show | |
09-22-18 | Nebraska +18 v. Michigan | 10-56 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
09-22-18 | Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7.5 | 56-27 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -3.5 | 36-39 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 41 m | Show | |
09-21-18 | Penn State v. Illinois +29 | 63-24 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 1 m | Show | |
09-21-18 | Brewers -123 v. Pirates | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
09-20-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Browns | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 31 m | Show |
09-20-18 | Tulsa +7.5 v. Temple | 17-31 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 42 m | Show | |
09-19-18 | Lightning +1.5 v. Hurricanes | 1-6 | Loss | -200 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
09-19-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 1-10 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
09-19-18 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
09-18-18 | Twins v. Tigers -102 | 5-3 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
09-17-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -125 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears -4.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
09-16-18 | Patriots v. Jaguars +2 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 61 h 13 m | Show |
09-16-18 | Dolphins +3 v. Jets | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 58 h 57 m | Show | |
09-16-18 | Chargers v. Bills +8.5 | 31-20 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
09-16-18 | Texans v. Titans +3 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
09-16-18 | Eagles v. Bucs +3.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
09-15-18 | Washington v. Utah +172 | 21-7 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
09-15-18 | Ohio State v. TCU +14 | 40-28 | Win | 100 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
09-15-18 | USC v. Texas -3 | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 104 h 57 m | Show | |
09-15-18 | Colorado State v. Florida UNDER 58.5 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
09-15-18 | LSU +10.5 v. Auburn | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 70 h 10 m | Show | |
09-15-18 | Vanderbilt v. Notre Dame -14 | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 114 h 45 m | Show | |
09-15-18 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +18 | 37-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 45 m | Show | |
09-14-18 | Georgia State v. Memphis UNDER 59 | 22-59 | Loss | -112 | 53 h 2 m | Show | |
09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals +1.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest +6.5 | 41-34 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 39 m | Show | |
09-12-18 | Rangers +163 v. Angels | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
09-12-18 | Storm v. Mystics -4 | 98-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
09-11-18 | Indians v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 105 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +5 | 33-13 | Loss | -115 | 155 h 55 m | Show | |
09-10-18 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9 | 6-10 | Win | 102 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
09-09-18 | Giants v. Brewers -135 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
09-09-18 | Bengals v. Colts -3 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -105 | 482 h 27 m | Show |
09-09-18 | Bills +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 3-47 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 50 m | Show |
09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -6 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 133 h 36 m | Show | |
09-09-18 | Bucs +10 v. Saints | 48-40 | Win | 100 | 131 h 21 m | Show | |
09-09-18 | Jaguars v. Giants +3 | 20-15 | Loss | -100 | 122 h 41 m | Show | |
09-08-18 | Rice +18 v. Hawaii | 29-43 | Win | 100 | 65 h 49 m | Show | |
09-08-18 | Michigan State v. Arizona State +7 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 95 h 12 m | Show | |
09-08-18 | UTEP +24 v. UNLV | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -111 | 103 h 50 m | Show |
09-08-18 | Fresno State +3 v. Minnesota | 14-21 | Loss | -115 | 60 h 29 m | Show | |
09-08-18 | Iowa State v. Iowa UNDER 49 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 95 h 41 m | Show | |
09-08-18 | Rangers +159 v. A's | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
09-08-18 | Memphis -6.5 v. Navy | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 58 m | Show | |
09-07-18 | TCU v. SMU +22.5 | 42-12 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 19 m | Show | |
09-07-18 | Indians v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
09-07-18 | Padres +150 v. Reds | 6-12 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
09-06-18 | Falcons +3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 12-18 | Loss | -119 | 217 h 36 m | Show |
09-06-18 | Cubs +104 v. Nationals | 6-4 | Win | 104 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
09-05-18 | Tigers v. White Sox -148 | 10-2 | Loss | -148 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 55.5 | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 297 h 17 m | Show | |
09-03-18 | Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show | |
09-03-18 | Toronto +9 v. Hamilton | 28-42 | Loss | -115 | 165 h 38 m | Show | |
09-03-18 | Phillies v. Marlins +140 | 1-3 | Win | 140 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
09-02-18 | Miami-FL v. LSU +3.5 | Top | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 372 h 52 m | Show |
09-02-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -153 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
09-01-18 | Louisville v. Alabama OVER 55.5 | Top | 14-51 | Win | 100 | 419 h 47 m | Show |
09-01-18 | Michigan v. Notre Dame OVER 47.5 | 17-24 | Loss | -115 | 418 h 28 m | Show | |
09-01-18 | Reds +142 v. Cardinals | 4-0 | Win | 142 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
09-01-18 | Cincinnati v. UCLA OVER 59 | 26-17 | Loss | -110 | 418 h 49 m | Show | |
09-01-18 | Northern Illinois v. Iowa -10 | Top | 7-33 | Win | 100 | 414 h 20 m | Show |
09-01-18 | West Virginia v. Tennessee +10.5 | 40-14 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
08-31-18 | Rockies v. Padres +125 | 0-7 | Win | 125 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
08-31-18 | Western Kentucky v. Wisconsin OVER 51 | 3-34 | Loss | -107 | 94 h 50 m | Show |