#33/34 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 7 Goals - Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Big total but love this spot for a goal-fest.  The Maple Leafs have had 6 of last 7 games total at least 7 goals and those games averaged 8 goals and we expect a 5-4 type battle!  The Panthers have had 5 of last 6 games total at least 7 goals and those 6 games have averaged about 9 goals per game.  You can see why the scoring should be strong in this one given numbers like this.  Even though these are divisional foes, this is just their 2nd meeting of 4 this season as they have two more over the final 3 weeks of the season.  The first one was a 5-4 final in OT and another game in which the teams scored 4 goals apiece in regulation would not be a surprise at all the way these two teams are going right now.  Over is our play here.  

ASA top play on 10* UCLA Bruins -120 vs. Gonzaga, 9:45 PM ET - We like the Bruins and their defense to get it done against the Zags. UCLA ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency this season allowing just .878-points per possession. They held opponents to 31% 3PT shooting (29th) and 46.6% on 2-pointers which ranked 38th. They owned the 20th best EFG% defense at 46.5. Gonzaga does own the #1 ranked offense in terms of efficiency at 1.235PPP, but that number is inflated from playing in the West Coast Conference. The Bruins won’t be intimidated by the Zags offense as they recently held a very good Arizona offense, averaging 82PPG, to just 59 points. UCLA also owns a very good offense that is 21st in OEFF at 1.155PPP. The difference is the Zags aren’t on the Bruins level defensively as Gonzaga ranks 75th in DEFF. Gonzaga plays a tough early season schedule every season and this year was no different. They suffered 3 losses to quality teams such as UCLA when they lost to Baylor close and were blown out by Texas and Purdue. Gonzaga has won 11 straight games but 7 of those came against teams ranked 100th or worse. UCLA is 14-1 SU their last fifteen games with a +/- of +12.8PPG. UCLA is on a 5-1-1 ATS run their last seven, Gonzaga is on an 0-7 ATS streak in NCAA tournament games.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 129.5 Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee, 9 PM ET - The numbers from our math model suggest this is going to be a low scoring game with a final total points scored of 120. The Vols defense is rated the best in the country when it comes to efficiency ratings as they give up just .870-points per possession. They hold opponents to the 3rd lowest EFG% at 42.7%, rank 1st in 3PT% allowed at 26.4% and are 11th in overall FG% defense. To better put this into perspective the Vols defense held Alabama, the 3rd highest scoring team in the nation at 82.3PPG to just 59 points in mid-February. Tennessee just held a Duke team that was averaging 72PPG to 52-points. The Volunteers also prefer to play at a slower pace of play as they rank 278th in Adjusted Tempo and 240th in Average Possession Length at 18.1. Florida Atlantic can also play some defense as they allow just .954-points per possession which ranks them 34th. They have the 15th best EFG% defense at 45.9% and defend the 3-point line and inside the arc well. The Owls are average in tempo ranking 143rd. The Vols are on a 7-3 Under streak, Florida Atlanta is on a 4-1 Under run. We trust the Models numbers on this one and expect a very low scoring contest.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 10:30 PM ET - Even with the loss of Paul George we have to back the home team Clippers who are playing with immediate revenge after losing to OKC 100-101 on Tuesday. Typically, in games like this when a key starter goes out, the role players step up given the opportunity. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last seven games and are starting to play well with Russell Westbrook in the lineup. The Thunder have put together a fantastic season with a 36-36 record and they have won 8 of their last ten games but it’s going to be tough to beat a team the caliber of the Clippers twice in their own joint, in consecutive games. The Clippers average margin of victory against .500 or less teams this season is +6PPG and they still have a very capable Kawhi Leonard on the roster. The home team has won 9 of the last ten meetings and we like that trend to continue here.