ASAwins NBA play on OVER 234.5 Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8pm ET - Denver (124.6 oEFF) and Minnesota (120.6 oEFF) are two of the most efficient offenses in the NBA. Denver is 3rd in eFG% shooting at 57.6%, the Wolves are 2nd at 58.6%. That means we don’t need a high possession game to get a higher scoring output. Minnesota is 14th in pace of play, the Nuggets are 24th. We also like the consistency from both teams when it comes to scoring in the paint with the Nuggets averaging 56.9PIP (3rd), the Wolves are 10th at 53PIP. Last 3 meetings in Minnesota: 241, 237, 235 total points. Expect another high scoring affair tonight. Our model is projecting 244.3 total points. OVER 234.5 is the call.

World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage - #225297/225298 ASA PLAY ON OVER 3 goals (+105) Austria at Cyprus, Saturday at Noon ET - Austria is a big favorite here as they are favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line.  We look for them to dictate the flow of this match and Cyprus might make the net ripple too but will not be able to stop a club that outclasses them.  Austria will be ready to go strong here as they only won by a 1-0 count when these clubs met in September.  Additionally, Austria is fired up here as they enter off a 1-0 loss to Romania.  Prior to that Austria had scored 19 goals in 5 matches in this competition.  Granted 10 goals came in a beating of San Marino but they did score 9 goals in the other 4 games.  This club is plenty dangerous on the attack.  Cyprus is outclassed here but they at least have been scoring goals recently so they bring some confidence into this one plus they are at home for this one.  Cyprus has scored multiple goals in 3 straight matches and should get at least 1 goal here as well!  Getting to at least  3-1 shows high probability per our computer math modeling simulations.  Over gets the call in this one!    

#660 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska Omaha -9 over Southern Utah, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Omaha is in an early must win type spot here at home as they’ve started the season 0-3. All 3 of those games have been away from home and they had tight losses vs Murray State and Abilene Christian, both solid teams, and a blowout loss @ Colorado State (top 65 team) in their most recent game. Now they’ve had a full week off and finally get to play a home game. This UNO team is rated as one of the top 4 teams in the Summit League. They won the conference tourney last year and made it to the Big Dance. They finished with a 22-13 record and they have 4 of their top 7 players back from that team. The Mavericks were 11-2 at home last season and 22-5 the last 2 years. Southern Utah lost pretty much everyone from last year’s team including their 5 starters. They have only 2 players back who played minimal roles a season ago. The are rated outside the top 300 and currently sit as the lowest rated team in the WAC. The Thunderbirds rank outside the top 300 in both eFG% offense and defense. Their 3 point D has been horrendous this year 49% from deep while their offense makes less than 24% of their triples. They are 1-2 with 2 double digit losses and their only win was vs Bethesda. They have been poor on the road winning only 6 of their last 31. SUU also has a game @ Gonzaga in 2 days (on Monday) so they might be a bit distracted here. Lay it with Nebraska Omaha.

#402 ASA PLAY ON USC -6.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line is too low in our opinion. For comparison’s sake, last week Oregon was laying the same number (-6.5) @ Iowa as USC is laying at home on Saturday. We were on the Ducks last weekend and didn’t get the cover as they won by 18-16 @ Iowa. The conditions were tough with high winds, rain and sleet which really helped Iowa in that situation. The conditions made it tough for the much better offensive team, Oregon, to pull away and make a poor Iowa offense chase. Despite the tight final score, the Ducks outgained the Hawkeyes by 134 yards and put up 261 yards rushing to just 101 for Iowa. If the weather wasn’t bad in that game, we have no doubt Oregon wins by more than a TD. This is a rough spot for the Hawkeyes as they went all in on that game last week and lost on a last second FG. Now they travel to the west coast for the first time this year to face a USC team that is 5-0 at home with every win coming by at least 14 points. Last week the Trojans were impressive easily handling a surging Northwestern team that had won 4 of their previous 5 games including a win @ Penn State when the Nittany Lions still had starting QB Allar healthy. USC rolled the Cats 38-17 putting up almost 500 total yards to just 280 for NW. The Trojans also beat a very good Michigan team handily here by 18 points outgained the Wolverines by 174 yards while rushing for 224 yards on 6.2 YPC. This USC team is undervalued right now, especially at home. They have a huge edge offensively in this game averaging nearly 200 YPG more than Iowa and they put up 2.6 more YPP than the Hawks. Iowa hasn’t been on the road since they faced Wisconsin on October 11th. They’ve played 3 straight home games since then. Their league road schedule has been very weak facing Wisconsin and Rutgers and that’s it. Their game at Rutgers was a 10 point win, however the Scarlet Knights put up over 400 total yards outgained Iowa but the Hawkeyes had a kick return for a TD. USC is 4-1 ATS at home this season and they’ve covered 9 of 11 here since the start of last year. Looks like some rain in LA on Saturday but temps in the 60’s and winds around 10 MPH so not terrible. We’ll call for another here as USC wins this by 10+.

#348 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +7 over Penn State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - These teams stand 3-6 SU with basically nothing to play for. The difference is, the Spartans weren’t expected to be good this year and are in a rebuild mode. Penn State on the other hand was one of the favorites to win the National Championship prior to the start of the season. We are betting the Lions are flat in this game after their demoralizing loss last week to Indiana. Not only are they coming off that loss, they faced Ohio State and Iowa in previous games which had to have taken an emotional toll. Last Saturday PSU led Indiana and was about to pull off a massive upset, then IU scored with :36 seconds left in the game for the W. Sparty played well last two weeks ago in Minnesota a 20-23 loss but MSU put up 467 total yards at 6.8YPP, while holding Minnesota to 301yds 4.9YPP. Michigan State got a bump in that game offensively with QB Milivojevic making his first career start and going 20/28 for 311 passing yards. If you take a closer look at each teams overall offensive and defensive numbers you will see many similarities: PSU total offense 110th at 335 total YPG, 97th YPP at 5.3, MSU 103rd total O at 347ypg at 5.4YPP. Spartans defense allows 371ypg, Penn State allows 326ypg. Given the circumstances, this line is higher than it should be and the value lies with the motivated home underdog.

#333/334 ASA PLAY ON Over 61.5 Points – Marshall vs Georgia State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Both these teams could easily get into the 30’s facing really poor defenses. Georgia State’s defense allows 42 PPG and ranks 135th out of 136 teams in scoring D. Marshall allows 32 PPG and ranks 120th. They rank 124th and 128th in YPP allowed. In their last 4 games, Georgia State has allowed 41, 41, 38, and 40 points and 3 of those offenses are ranked lower than Marshall’s offense. The Herd put up at least 40 points in each of their first 4 Sun Belt games and over the last 2 weeks they scored 27 and 23 vs Coastal Carolina and James Madison. In their 27 point performance vs Coastal they had 432 yards but 5 turnovers and were shut out on downs twice. Needless to say, they could have easily pushed 40 points in that game. Last week vs JMU they scored 23 points but put up over 400 yards on one of the top defenses in the country (8th in total defense). It was the most yardage JMU has allowed in a game this season. Marshall’s D has allowed at least 28 points in 5 of their 6 conference games including 35+ in 4 of those games. Georgia State doesn’t have great season long offensive numbers but they are trending up scoring 24, 31, and 27 points over their last 3 games. We love the match ups here as well. Georgia State loves to sling it averaging almost 40 pass attempts per game (14th nationally) and they are facing a Marshall D that ranks 120th vs the pass. On the other side of the ball, Marshall is 16th nationally averaging 211 YPG rushing and facing a Ga State defense that ranks 129th vs the rush. The offenses should dominate here in a very high scoring game.