ASA WNBA play on UNDER 178.5 Dallas Wings at LA Sparks, 6PM ET - The Sparks playoff lives are hanging by a thread as they trail the 8th place Storm by 2 games with three to play. Dallas has been eliminated for a long time now and stands 9-33 on the season. Both teams have favored the OVER this season and the oddsmakers have recognized that with a lofty O/U number on this game. LA is off two game East coast trip to Atlanta and will have a tough time finding their legs with the extended travel and short rest. Dallas has had their struggles offensively, especially without Arike Ogunbowale (injured) not in the lineup. The Wings have scored 81 or less points in 6 of their last seven games. The Sparks offense has seen a dramatic decline in efficiency in their last 7 games and have not shot it well compared to their season standards. These two teams met on August 20th on this same floor and produced 161 total points. Our math model is projecting 172 points given the circumstances.

#925/926 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 or 9 Runs – Seattle Mariners at Atlanta Braves, Sunday at 12:05 PM ET - The Mariners rolled to a 10-2 win yesterday.  Seattle should score well again here and this time the Braves perform much better at the plate as well.  That is because Atlanta will take advantage of a struggling Luis Castillo. The veteran right-hander has a 5.40 ERA on the road this season and also has allowed 19 earned runs in 17 innings over his last 4 starts!  The Braves also have a struggling right-hander slated to take the ball on Sunday.  Spencer Strider is 5-12 with a 4.97 ERA this season and he has particularly struggled in recent action.  Strider has been better in his last 2 starts but had more walks than strikeouts over these two outings.  Overall, in his last 5 outings Strider has been charged with 24 earned runs in 23 and 2/3 innings!  The Mariners have scored an average of 5.3 runs per game over the last 12 games!  Atlanta, before being held to just 2 runs yesterday, had scored an average of 5.1 runs per game over their last 10 games.  Braves bounce back at the plate here and the Mariners roll again as both starting pitchers are likely to struggle here.  Our computer math model is projecting 11 to 12 runs here as the most likely outcomes and even if the game reaches only 10 that is still a winner for us! We are big on Over the total in this one.

World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage - #225465 ASA PLAY ON Slovakia (-130) over Luxembourg, Sunday at 2:45 PM ET - We get line value here since Slovakia is on the road for this one so that keeps them in a playable -130 range.  They are off the big 2-0 win over Germany and will build on that here. They beat Luxembourg here 1-0 in the most recent meeting.  While goals may be at a premium in this one we do expect Slovakia to get the better of it and win this by a 1-0 or 2-0 final.  The visitors have the talent edges and Luxembourg is still building up their program and still lack quality in some key areas on the pitch.  The hosts are off a 3-1 loss to Northern Ireland which is also not a good sign for them here. Lay it with the road club here Sunday afternoon. 

#479 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore -120 over Buffalo, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This line opened with Buffalo as a favorite and has flipped despite Baltimore being the road team. That speaks volumes. This a huge revenge game for the Ravens after losing 27-25 @ Buffalo in last year’s playoffs. In that loss, Baltimore absolutely dominated the stat sheet with 416 yards on 7.3 YPP to Buffalo’s 274 yards on 4.6 YPP. Three turnovers for the Ravens (0 for Buffalo) were the difference in that game. The Ravens shredded the Bills on the ground in that game for nearly 6.0 YPC which wasn’t a huge surprise as Buffalo ranked 22nd in the NFL allowing 4.6 YPC a year ago. With the most dangerous running QB in the league (Jackson) and a high level RB (Henry) we don’t see anything changing here. On top of that, Raven QB Jackson threw for 254 yards and a 72% completion rate in that loss and is now facing a Buffalo defense with both starting CB’s dealing with groin injuries. We respect the Bills who were very good in 2024 but they did catch a number of breaks. Their +24 turnover margin led the NFL by a wide margin. To put those numbers in perspective, that +24 turnover margin was the most of any NFL team since 2012. It’ll be almost impossible to repeat or come anywhere close to those numbers in 2025. Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh has been a massive money maker in road games with an incredible 74-49 ATS record. We’ll take Baltimore in this one.

ASA NFL play on OVER 43 Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints, 1pm ET - There has been some strange movement on this O/U with more tickets on the Under, yet far more money has been bet on Over. The Cardinals averaged 23.5ppg a year ago, the Saints averaged 19.9ppg. Both teams were below average in terms of points per game allowed as the Cardinals gave up 22.3ppg, the Saints allowed 23.4. At first glance, you would think this would be a lower scoring game with two offenses that weren’t great in 2024 but the numbers suggest differently. The Cardinals were actually 7th in yards per play offense at 5.9 and the Saints average 5.3YPP which ranked 17th. Games that involved Arizona last season finished with 44 or more points in 11 of 17 games. The Saints + opponents finished with 43 plus points in 8 of 17 games, but New Orleans was in tank mode in the final weeks of the season. Games involving the Saints resulted in 43+ points in 5 of their first seven games when it still mattered. This is a very modest number and we like 44+ points by the mid-way point of the 4th quarter.

#461 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +6 over Washington, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This number opened -7.5 and despite 50/50 split on the actual bets, it has dropped a point and a half. That’s because, despite the 50/50 wagers, over 80% of the money at a few sharp books we track has come in on the Giants. NYG are the sharp side and we agree 100%. We think this is an overvalued vs undervalued situation to open the season. The Giants had major issues at QB last year with 4 different signal callers starting a game at some point last season. Russell Wilson has been very good in NYG camp and brings some stability to an offense that has some very talented playmakers. Wilson has been fantastic in his career as an underdog with a 44-27 ATS record and he should have some confidence here as he led the Steelers to a win over Washington last year. This rivalry has been very closely with 1 score games in 9 of the last 11 meetings. That includes last year when the Giants, who had only 3 wins, took the Commanders, who had 12 wins, to the wire in both match ups losing by a combined 8 points. Washington took the NFL by storm last year and we look for some regression in 2025. They had some breaks throughout the season facing 5 back up QB’s and they won 9 of their 13 one score games. Week 1 Divisional Dogs have been fantastic with a 31-16 ATS mark since 2016. On top of that, Washington has been a terrible favorite of 6 or more points going 6-20 ATS in that role dating back to the 2008 season. We think this one will be tight, as they usually are when these 2 meet, so we’ll grab the points.

#470 ASA FREE PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +1.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We think Atlanta might be a bit undervalued entering this season.  They started last season with a 6-3 record but finished 2-6 and struggled when starting QB Cousins was injured but kept playing.  They replaced him with Michael Penix in their final 3 games and he was solid with 740 yards passing during that 3 game stretch.  Atlanta lost 2 of those 3 games, however both losses were in OT including losing @ Washington who ended up in the NFC Championship game.  We’re hearing very good things about Penix this year and expect a breakout season.  He has potentially one of the most potent offenses in the league with RB Robinson (one of the tops in the NFL) and a very good WR corp.  The OL is solid as well.  The defense finished 19th in YPP allowed but added some key players and we think improvement on that side of the ball is on the way.  Tampa, on the other hand, we tab as a bit overvalued coming off a playoff season.  The Bucs started last season winning 4 of their first 10 games but went on a late season run winning 6 of their final 7 to win the division.  However, 5 of those wins came vs New Orleans, Carolina (twice), NY Giants, and Las Vegas who had only 17 combined wins between them.  Home division dogs have been lights out in Week 1 of the NFL season with a 23-7 ATS record since 2010 (almost 77%).  Atlanta beat Tampa BOTH times last season and outgained the Bucs 944 to 765.  We look for the Falcons to take a step forward while the Bucs should regress.  Atlanta was favored in both meetings last year and now we’re getting them as a home underdog.  We’ll take the points.