How To Beat The Sportsbooks
With the NFL and college football season underway now is time to sharpen up your betting strategies and get ready to beat the sportsbooks.
One strategy that is very commonly used in sports betting is betting trends. There are two types of betting trends.
The first is team based betting trends. For example, the Dallas Cowboys are 2-9 against the betting line since 2006 when playing on Monday Night football. Bettors using team betting trends will fade the Cowboys when they play in week 16 of the 2016 NFL season at home on Monday Night versus the Lions.
The second type of betting trend is league based. For example, an NFL home favorite of 10 or more points, playing a non-conference opponent that is off a home win by 14 or more points, is 9-0 against the betting line since 1995.
Another strategy is betting against the public. It’s very obvious that the public loses more than they win. Therefore, if the public is very heavy on one team in a game, bet on the other team. The best two “sides” that the public love to bet on are 7 or more point favorites, and the over in total sports betting.
One or our favorite betting strategies is reverse line moves. The betting lines on games always move favoring one side of a game. The question is; what is causing the line to move. One of the biggest fallacies in sports betting is that a line moves based on money wagered. A reverse line move is when the betting line moves in reverse of the public betting percentages. For example, let’s say Pittsburgh is playing Cleveland and the Steelers open as a 7-point favorite. If the line moves up to Pittsburgh being an 8-point favorite but the Steelers have attracted only 40% of the betting action that would be a reverse line movement. This tells us that the “sharp” sports bettor and the “smart” money is on Pittsburgh. The betting line is moving in favor of Pittsburgh despite 60% of the money is on Cleveland.
Another betting strategy is statistical or analytical. There are computer based models that take all types of statistics and run them through simulators in attempt to predict the final score of the game.
Every sports bettor has to decide which betting strategy is the best fit for them. We believe that using a combination of all the strategies, with an emphasis on betting against the public, is the most effective way to beat the sportsbooks.