Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-01-17 | Bills v. Falcons OVER 48.5 | 23-17 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (267) and the Atlanta Falcons (268). Atlanta (3-0) returns home still unscathed this season after escaping Detroit with a 30-26 win as a 3-point favorite. The Over is then 13-2-1 in the Falcons’ last 16 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is also 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Atlanta has played 12 straight games Over the Total on their home field. Moving forward, the Falcons have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the month of October. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record, Atlanta has played all 8 games Over the Total. |
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10-01-17 | Titans v. Texans +3 | Top | 14-57 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (259) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (260). Tennessee (2-1) earned a nice win at home last week in their 33-27 win over Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite. But rather than this being a dominant victory, the Titans were fortunate that the bevy of Seahawks mistakes overwhelmed their 24-21 advantage in first downs as well as being outgained by 13 net yards after surrendering 433 yards to what had been a stagnant Seattle offense. Tennessee is then 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games after a straight-up win. The Titans are considered quite fondly right now in many circles despite not playing in the playoffs in recent history — or even winning a game that has playoff implications. Remember that last year, their playoff hopes were dashed in Week 16 of the regular season when they were crushed by the lowly Jaguars in Jacksonville. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Titans now face the (relative) blue bloods of the AFC South in the Houston Texans — and they have lost seven of their last nine meetings with the Texans. Furthermore, Tennessee is 4-21-3 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, keep in mind that teams that come off a game with the physical Seahawks over the years tend to suffer big letdowns. |
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10-01-17 | Saints v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 20-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
At 9:30 AM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (252) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (251). New Orleans (1-2) got off the mat from an 0-2 start by traveling to Carolina to shock the Panthers by a 34-13 score as a 5.5-point underdog. But the Saints may be primed for an emotional letdown after their victory over a divisional rival. The disruption of the travel to London may exacerbate a lack of focus that the Ravens’ experienced last week. As it is, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The defense stepped up out of nowhere to hold the Carolina offense to use 288 yards of offense in that game. But after allowing 1025 total yards of offense in their first two games, their performance last week may speak more to the sad state of the Panthers’ offense with rumors that quarterback Cam Newton has deteriorated physically. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points. And in their last 13 games as the favorite, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games. |
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09-30-17 | Clemson v. Virginia Tech +7.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 41 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (194) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (193). Virginia Tech (4-0) enters this huge game on their home field for this nationally televised game with the lights on coming off a 38-0 win over Old Dominion as a 28.5-point favorite last week. The Hokies have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. This team will be seeing a dramatic uptick in the level of their competition after their strongest opponent in their first four games was West Virginia in their opening game. But twelve starters return from the team that lost by just a 42-35 margin in the ACC Championship Game to this Clemson team that went on to win a National Championship. This game now is in Blacksburg where the Hokies are very tough. Virginia Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The team has a new quarterback from last year in redshirt freshman Josh Jackson who has been quite a good fit in head coach Justin Fuente’s system. Jackson is completing 65% of his passes with an outstanding 11:1 touchdown to interception ratio. He is leading an offense that is scoring 40 PPG along with averaging 507 YPG. The Hokies generated 582 yards of offense last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. |
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09-30-17 | Navy v. Tulsa +8.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 38 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (154) plus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (153). Tulsa (1-3) looks to rebound from their 16-13 upset loss at home to New Mexico last Saturday as a 10-point favorite. The Golden Hurricanes have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread setback. Tulsa will retain a huge situational advantage this afternoon hosting the Midshipmen since they faced a similar offense last week with the Lobos. In fact, the Golden Hurricanes also face the spread triple option offense next week when they play Tulane — so this defense may be in the middle of the deepest dive into attacking this offense that any defense has seen in years given how few teams actually deploy this scheme. The Golden Hurricanes are tough home dogs as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Tulsa has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Golden Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. |
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09-30-17 | Maryland +13.5 v. Minnesota | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (141) plus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (142). Minnesota (3-0) begins their Big Ten Conference schedule coming off a 34-3 win over Middle Tennessee State two weeks ago as a 13.5-point favorite. But the Golden Gophers have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. And in their last 6 games after a point spread win, Minnesota is just 1-4-1 ATS. The Gophers rushed for 221 yards in that game — but they are then just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. |
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09-30-17 | New Mexico State v. Arkansas -17 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (172) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (171). Arkansas (1-2) will be looking to take out their frustrations on a lowly non-Power Five Conference opponent this afternoon after they blew their game last week with Texas A&M in what resulted in a 50-43 loss in overtime to the Aggies. This was a frustrating game to watch — so imagine how head coach Bret Bielema feels now firmly sitting on the proverbial hot seat after his team’s start where they have lost two of their last three games. Bielema needs to get his defense to play better under first-year defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads. The Razorbacks allowed 285 rushing yards in that game en route to Texas A&M averaging 7.26 Yards-Per-Play. Arkansas has then bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last contest. The Razorbacks have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 as well as 18 of their last 26 games after allowing an opponent to average at least 7.25 YPP in their last game. Furthermore, Arkansas has played 29 of their last 39 games after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored — and that includes covering 3 straight games when they allowed at least 50 points in their last game. The Razorbacks should get their powerful running game going behind their big offensive line that should overwhelm the Aggies — and this team has been a reliable big favorite at home in situations like this. Not only has Arkansas covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when laying 14.5 to 21 points but they have covered their last three when a home fave in the 14.5 to 17 points (as they are as of this writing). |
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09-29-17 | USC v. Washington State +5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
At 10:30 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (112) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (111). USC (4-0) enters this game after their 30-20 win at Cal as a 16.5-point favorite last Saturday. I hate this spot for the Trojans as they are being asked to stay on the road for the second straight week while facing their fifth straight opponent that played in a bowl game last season. As it is, this USC team has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 road games against teams with a winning record at home. This is a banged up roster which has impacted their play after a winning a very physical game against Stanford a few weeks ago. They have allowed 11 sacked already — and they face an aggressive Cougars defense that has resisted 14 sacks already. And the greatest quarterback in the world Sam Darnold has thrown seven picks already. Injuries on an offensive line has impacted what was already a thin group with only two returning starters from last year. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of September. And in their last 5 games played on turf, USC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. |
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09-29-17 | Nebraska -5.5 v. Illinois | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers (107) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (108). Nebraska (2-2) enters this Big Ten game coming off a 27-17 win over Rutgers last Saturday as an 11-point favorite. The Cornhuskers have then rebounded to go 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Frankly, Nebraska should have come away from that game with the Scarlet Knights with a bigger win. Not only did they settle for two short field goals but they also allowed a 33-yard interception return for a touchdown. While this is not the Tom Osbourne Cornhuskers anymore with a recruiting base that has been become regional rather than national, this remains a solid football program. Their defense struggled to adjust to new defensive coordinator Bob Diaco’s move to a 3-4. In their first six quarters of play, they allowed 78 points and 886 yards which translates into an ugly 52 PPG and 591 YPG defensive scoring averages. But since halftime of their game at Oregon where they were getting throttled by a 42-7 score, Nebraska’s defense has allowed only 584 yards which translates into a stingy 233 total YPG defensive average. Take away the three(!) pick-sixes that QB Tanner Lee has thrown and the Cornhuskers’ defense has allowed just 21 points which translates into an outstanding 8.4 PPG scoring average over those last ten quarters. Now Nebraska goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning record at home. |
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09-29-17 | BYU v. Utah State +1 | 24-40 | Win | 102 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (110) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (109). Utah State (2-2) is feeling pretty good about themselves with their 61-10 win over at San Jose State last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Now the Aggies return home after playing two straight games — as well as three of their last four contests — on the road. Utah State typically enjoys a great home field advantage as they are 27-7 straight-up in their last thirty-two games at home. This is an important rivalry game opportunity for head coach Matt Wells team in his fifth year with the program after they were just 3-9 last season. This team entered the season having lost thirteen of their last seventeen games — but seven of those losses were by 7 points or less care of four leads blown in the final 15 minutes of play. But Utah State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win over a conference rival by at least five touchdowns. The Aggies raced out to a 38-0 halftime lead against the Spartans last week — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after enjoying at least a 20-point lead at halftime. Moving forward, Utah State is an impressive 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on a Friday night. |
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09-29-17 | Miami-FL v. Duke +6 | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 45 m | Show | |
Take the Duke Blue Devils plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes. Duke (4-0) will be playing with tons of confidence after they traveled to Chapel Hill and upset North Carolina by a 27-17 score. The Blue Devils have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. Duke returns home where they have covered the points spread in 6 straight games. They have two more games under their belt than this Miami team (2-0) that saw two of their September games cancelled due to Hurricane Irma. The Hurricanes come off a 52-30 win over Toledo last week in a game where they generated 587 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now Miami plays their first road game of the season on a short week against a team that they defeated by a 40-21 score last November. Take Duke plus the points. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports begins Friday on a SIZZLING 33 of 53 (62%) Football run! Frank also owns a DYNAMITE 60% FOOTBALL TOTALS TEAR with his last 211 Football O/Us (126-85) — and now he UNLEASHES his 25* CFB Friday Night Total of the Month! DON’T MISS OUT! Frank DELIVERED his 25* MLB NL Central Total of the Month last night with the Cubs-Cardinals Under to further a NEAR PERFECT 6 of 7 (86%) MLB TEAR that continues his SCORCHING 11 of 15 (73%) MLB run along with a RED HOT 27 of 41 (66%) MLB run! Now Frank spots ANOTHER OUTSTANDING O/U OPPORTUNITY this week for his 25* MLB Divisional Total of the Year! DON’T MISS OUT! |
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09-29-17 | Miami-FL v. Duke UNDER 56 | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (105) and the Duke Blue Devils (106). Duke (4-0) returns home still undefeated after they pulled the upset last Saturday with their 27-17 win at North Carolina as a 1.5-point underdog. The Blue Devils have then played 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Duke has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Blue Devils relied on their defense to win that game against the Tar Heels as it was a 61-yard interception returned for a touchdown at the 4:01 mark that provided their last touchdown in that contest. Head coach David Cutliffe appears to have one of his best defensives in his ten years at Duke. 66% of the tackles from last year returned to a unit that is allowing only 15.3 PPG (17th in the FBS) while ranking 11th in the nation in total defense (261.5 total YPG). Moving forward, Duke returns home where they have played 7 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total. And in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, the Blue Devils have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, Duke has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the month of September. |
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09-28-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Packers | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
At 8:25 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (102) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (101). Green Bay (2-1) remains banged up after their 27-24 win in overtime at home to Cincinnati on Sunday. The short week is hard on both teams — but the Packers will be left particularly short-handed. The strength of the Green Bay offensive line is at with David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga — but both have been downgraded to doubtful on Thursday with their ailments. When considering that general manager Ted Thompson had previously made the decision to cut costs at guard after letting Josh Sitton go last season with T.J. Lang following up out the door via free agency last offseason, the resulting offensive line that will be protecting Aaron Rodgers will be rather shoddy. It is telling that Green Bay has already allowed 13 sacks this season — and they are averaging just 69 rushing YPG. Both numbers reflect poorly on their offensive line. The Packers’ defense is a mess as well. Cornerback Davon House has been ruled out for tonight while Mike Daniels — the heart of their defensive line — and their key linebacker Nick Perry are both questionable. This is not good news when facing a divisional rival. As it is, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. And while they trailed the Bengals by a 21-7 score at halftime last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after trailing at halftime by at least two touchdowns in their last game. |
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09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). In a game between two divisional rivals both who are banged-up and coming off a game on Sunday that required overtime — and now both playing on a short week — expect this contest to a grind where both opposing coaches look to rise to the challenge by winning the battle at the line of scrimmage in what should result in a lower scoring game. Chicago (1-2) travels to Lambeau Field with confidence after their 23-17 upset win over the Steelers in overtime as a 7-point underdog. The Bears have an underrated defense that limited the potent Pittsburgh offense to just 282 yards of offense. Chicago has now played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of September. The Bears have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games against NFC North opponents, Chicago has played 5 of these games Under the Total. |
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09-28-17 | Texas v. Iowa State +6 | 17-7 | Loss | -123 | 21 h 22 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (104) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (103). Iowa State (2-1) looks to build off their 41-14 win at Akron as a 10-point favorite back on September 16th. The Cyclones have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Iowa State has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games in the month of September. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Head Matt Campbell’s team should be fired up to make a statement in his second-year with the program with this nationally televised game at night. As it is, the Cyclones have covered the point spread in 5 straight games played on a Thursday. Led by junior quarterback Jacob Park, Iowa State is 18th in the FBS by averaging a robust 311.7 passing YPG — and this offense should have success against the maligned Longhorns pass defense that allows 248.2 passing YPG (82nd in the FBS). Park’s dangerous arm should help the Cyclones hang around in this game — at the very least. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 home games as an underdog. |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5 | 28-17 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (490) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (489). Dallas (1-1) will be looking to bounce-back from their 42-17 pounding at the hands of the Broncos last Sunday — and that will make them a trendy pick in many circles. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Dallas is also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. Now this team stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. And in their last 5 trips to Arizona, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games. Additionally, in their last 12 appearances on Monday Night Football, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of these occasions. |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals UNDER 47 | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 93 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (489) and the Arizona Cardinals (490). Dallas (1-1) was embarrassed last week on the road in Denver where they were spanked by a 42-17 score despite being a 2.5-point favorite. The Cowboys surrendered 380 yards in that contest while seeing their defense be on the field for 33:50 minutes in that game. Ezekiel Elliott rushed the ball only nine times for 8 yards. Overall, Dallas rushed the ball only 14 times for 40 yards with Dak Prescott ending up as their leading rusher with 24 yards. The Cowboys have to get back to running the football behind the bruising offensive line in an attempt to control the clock and impose their will while keeping their defense off the field. Dallas will not be successful in the long run if Prescott attempts 50 passes like he did against the Broncos. As it is, the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Dallas has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And in their last 14 games on the road, Dallas has played 11 of these games Under the Total. |
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09-24-17 | Raiders v. Redskins +3.5 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (488) plus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (487). Washington (1-1) returned home in a good mood after their 27-20 win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3-point underdog. The Skins generated 385 yards of offense in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Washington has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Skins should be feisty underdogs tonight — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog of 3 points or less. |
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09-24-17 | Raiders v. Redskins OVER 53.5 | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (487) and the Washington Redskins (488). Oakland (2-0) looked very good for the second straight week with their dominant 45-20 win over the Jets last Sunday as a 14-point favorite. The Raiders have then played 19 of their last 25 gams Over the Total after a straight-up win. The Over is also 31-13-2 in Oakland’s last 46 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns, the Raiders have played 5 of these games Over the Total. But while the Raiders defense has impressed by only allowing 292 yards last week to the Jets, but concerns remain when going deeper inside the numbers as they are allowing opponents to convert on 50% of their 3rd down plays. Moving forward, Oakland has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the month of September. |
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09-24-17 | Bengals +8 v. Packers | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
At 4:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (485) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (486). There has been no more of disappointing team than the Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) after they lost the first two games of the season after their 13-9 loss at home last Thursday night to the Texans. Now this Bengals team has been beat up all week in the media and face a must-win game on the road against a divisional rival to salvage their season. Since 2012, teams that started the season 0-3 all ended up with losing records — and the average win total for teams that have started 0-3 in the last five seasons is just 4.4. So Marvin Lewis and his coaching staff (probably — who knows with the Cincinnati ownership) have their jobs on the line this week. This is a team that has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games in the third week of the regular season. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss at home. And while the Cincy offense has been completely inept by scoring just those 9 points against the Texans after being shutout by the Ravens, they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after failing to score at least 17 points in two straight games. And in their last 15 games on the road, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 10 of these games. |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -130 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
At 4:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (481) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (482). Tennessee (1-1) flexed their muscles last week by crushing the Jaguars in Jacksonville last Sunday. This Titans team looked like the group that won a Super Bowl a few seasons ago and was just that goal-line interception away from winning twice in recent history and cementing themselves as a dynasty team. Oh wait, that’s not Tennessee? That actually describes their opponents in the Seahawks under head coach Pete Carroll? Then why has the line moved from Seattle opening as a small road favorite to now the Titans laying up to a field goal in some spots? This Tennessee was hyped up a ton during the offseason before losing by 10 points at home in their opening game against the Raiders. This remains an unproven team at home that has lost sixteen of their last twenty-two games in Nashville. The Titans are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games at home which includes failing to cover the point spread in ten of their last sixteen games at home. Furthermore, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games off a win on the road. Additionally, Tennessee are just 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 games after a game where they scored at least 30 points. And while the Titans did rush for 131 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards. |
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09-24-17 | Broncos v. Bills +3.5 | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (470) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (469). Denver (2-0) is a trendy pick this week after their dominant 42-17 blowout upset win over the Cowboys last Sunday on national television during the second slate of games. In fact, it is a little surprising that they bettors can still find -3s with the Broncos this morning. This game screamed trap to me since the line came out — and the betting trends confirm that a vast majority of the money is on Denver. So, lets take the contrarian play (and bet with the books). This is the Broncos’ first game on the road this season. And Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset victory. Furthermore, not only are the Broncos 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games off a win but they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 5 games played on turf, Denver has failed to cover the point spread all 5 times. |
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09-24-17 | Steelers v. Bears +7.5 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (466) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (465). Pittsburgh (2-0) looked great last week in their 26-9 win at home over a Minnesota team without their starting quarterback Sam Bradford. But this Steelers team is much better — and more aggressive on offense — at home than they are on the road. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in their last 2 road games when favored in the 3.5 to 7 point range. Frankly, the makeup of this Bears team is similar to that of the Cleveland Browns whom the Steelers played in Week One but only escaped with a 21-18 victory despite being a 10-point favorite on the road. And while Pittsburgh held the Vikings to just 146 passing yards against the Vikings, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. |
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09-24-17 | Falcons -2.5 v. Lions | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (477) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (476). Detroit (2-0) finds themselves undefeated after two games with their 24-10 win in New York against the Giants for Monday Night Football. This is a team that has benefited from the maturation of quarterback Matthew Stafford who has taken this team on his shoulders since the retirement of Calvin Johnson. As a one-time doubter, Stafford’s continued development has been impressive. But he just lacks enough help from his teammates. The Lions were actually outgained by 13 net yards on Monday while managing a mere 257 yards of offense — and it will be very difficult to keep up with the potent Atlanta offense. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game. The Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against NFC opponents. And in their last 7 games against NFC opponents, Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests. |
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09-24-17 | Giants +6 v. Eagles | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 1 h 13 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (479) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (480). New York (0-2) looked awful on Monday in their 24-10 loss at home to Detroit despite being a 3-point favorite. Now this Giants team has been beat up all week in the media and face a must-win game on the road against a divisional rival to salvage their season. Since 2012, teams that started the season 0-3 all ended up with losing records — and the average win total for teams txt have started 0-3 in the last five seasons is just 4.4. So Ben McAdoo and his coaching staff have their jobs on the line this week. This proud franchise has been resilient as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight up loss — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Giants are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games after a double-digit loss at home. Don’t blame the defense as they held the Lions to only 257 yards of offense on Monday. Only 119 of those yards were in the air in that game — and the G-Men have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing no more than 150 passing yards in their last game. New York needs to get more out of the rushing attack after accumulating a mere 97 rushing yards combined in their first two games. The Giants have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in each of their last two games. |
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09-24-17 | Saints +6 v. Panthers | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (473) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (474). New Orleans (0-2) will be playing with a sense of desperation having lost their first two games with their 36-20 loss at home to New England last week. Expect a strong bounce-back effort from this veteran team led by Drew Brees. The Saints have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Defense remains a problem for this team that surrendered an incredible 555 yards to the Patriots. There is some reasons for optimism given what the Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott did to Cam Newton last week after accumulating inside knowledge on the quarterback in his time as the Panthers’ defensive coordinator. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing 30 points in their last game. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. And don’t worry about New Orleans being away from the Superdome as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Saints have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against fellow NFC South opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against the Panthers. |
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09-24-17 | Ravens v. Jaguars +3.5 | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 0 h 27 m | Show | |
At 9:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (462) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (461). Jacksonville (1-1) is a team bettors do not want to touch after they were throttled by Tennessee by a 37-16 score last Sunday. But while the betting world rides the Ravens, the smart play is to take the underdog in this London contest played on a neutral field. The Jaguars certainly have a situational advantage having played over in London for five straight seasons — and they have won their last two games played in Wembley Stadium. Jacksonville is also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. While Blake Bortles has regressed and does not look long for the starting QB job, this is a team with an underrated defense along with a promising young running back in Leonard Fournette. And this is a group that has already defeated another team with a great defense in the Texans in their building this season. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC foes. |
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09-23-17 | Penn State v. Iowa +13 | Top | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 43 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (317) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (318). Penn State closed out last season by scoring 45.6 PPG over their last seven games that culminated in an exciting 52-49 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl. That finish along with a soft early schedule has the Nittany Lions a public favorite as well on the short list for much of the sports punditry’s for College Playoff teams. But this will the first road game for this Penn State team this season after playing their first three games at home. The Nittany Lions come off a 56-0 shutout victory over Georgia State last week as a 37-point favorite. That came after their 33-14 win over Pittsburgh as an 18.5-point favorite in a revenge situation from the previous year. This Penn State program has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after two straight wins by at least two touchdowns. This Nittany Lions team has not been tested yet after being favored to begin their season as a 30-point favorite over Akron. But this may spell trouble for this team now facing sky-high expectations for this first time since the Joe Paterno era. Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing at least three straight games as a favorite by more than one touchdown. This is a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 16 games played on turf, the Nittany Lions are 4-10-2 ATS. |
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09-23-17 | Rutgers v. Nebraska UNDER 47.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 1 h 41 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (349) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (350). |
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09-23-17 | TCU +10 v. Oklahoma State | 44-31 | Win | 100 | 1 h 39 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (383) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (384). TCU (3-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 56-36 win over SMY last week. The Horned Frogs have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Despite giving up 463 yards last week to the Mustangs, this TCU defense has held their three previous opponents to -82 YPG below their season average. Seven starters return from the defense that only allowed more than 350 yards twice last season. This year, the Horned Frogs have stepped up on offense as they are outgaining their opponents by +242 YPG. Head coach Gary Patterson will have his group ready to lay considering that they are playing with revenge from a 31-6 upset loss as a 6-point favorite last season. TCU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set at 70 or higher. The Horned Frogs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, TCU has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. And in their last 30 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points, the Horned Frogs have covered 20 of these contests. |
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09-23-17 | Toledo v. Miami-FL UNDER 61 | 30-52 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 33 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (351) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (352). Miami (1-0) will likely be rusty on offense as they take the field for the first time since September 2nd after having a couple games cancelled due to Hurricane Irma. The Hurricanes won their opening game against Bethune Cookman by a 41-13 score — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Miami (FL) has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a bye week. The strong Hurricanes defense was sloppy against that FCS school as they allowed 350 yards — so expect a focused effort this afternoon. The Under is 5-2-1 in Miami’s last 8 games at home. And in their last 63 games against teams outside the ACC, the Hurricanes have played 44 of these games Under the Total. |
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09-23-17 | NC State +11.5 v. Florida State | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the NC State Wolfpack (321) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (322). Florida State (0-1) will be taking the field for a game for the first time since their disappointing 24-7 loss to Alabama way back on September 2nd. The Seminoles have since seen their game with UL-Monroe cancelled due to Hurricane Irma and then their showdown with Miami (FL) delayed and rescheduled for next month while they dealt with the aftermath of that storm in the South Beach area. Expect Florida State to be very rusty with three weeks off early in the season. It is almost a bowl break for the Seminoles — but there is a big difference in getting three weeks off at the end of the season than it is at the beginning of the year. Furthermore, any desire that this team had to get the bad taste out of their mouths from the bad loss to the Crimson Tide has subsided. This team risks being flat with the probability that their ability to make the College Football Playoff is already low. Additionally, the team lost their redshirt freshman quarterback Deondre Francois to a season-ending injury in that game |
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09-23-17 | Arkansas +3 v. Texas A&M | 43-50 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 12 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (395) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (394). Arkansas (1-1) comes off a bye week with plenty to prove after their 28-7 loss to TCU back on September 9th as a 3-point underdog. The Razorbacks have then bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, Arkansas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. And in their last 4 games coming off a bye week under head coach Brett Bielema, they have covered the point spread all 4 times. This team will also be playing with revenge on their minds after suffering a 45-24 upset loss to the Aggies last September as a 7-point favorite. |
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09-23-17 | UMass v. Tennessee OVER 59.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -117 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Massachusetts Minutemen (327)/Tennessee Volunteers (328) Over the Total. Tennessee (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their heartbreaking 26-20 loss to Florida that ended on a Hail Mary pass from Florida with the game-tied that featured such terrible defense that it will likely be the signature visual that gets head coach Butch Jones relieved of his duties in early December. But I do expect the Volunteers to beat up on the Minutemen this afternoon. Tennessee did cover the ending +6.5-point spread in that game — and they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread win. The Vols have also played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total in the month of September. Additionally, not only has Tennessee played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home but they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total agains teams with a losing record on the road. |
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09-22-17 | Utah v. Arizona +4 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
At 10:30 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Arizona Wildcats (308) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (307). Arizona (2-1) enters this game with a bit of momentum after rebounding from their loss at home to Houston by crushing UTEP on the road last Friday night by a 63-16 score. Now the Wildcats return home in a critical game for Rich Rodriguez and this Arizona program. Many bettors will be shying away from this Wildcats team that was last in the nation by being outscored by -10 PPG against the point spread last season. Last year’s 3-9 season has put Rodriguez on the proverbial hot seat this year. But remember that under Rodriguez, Arizona had secured wins over Top-Ten teams in four straight seasons before last year. While this undefeated Utes team does not quite find themselves at those lofty heights (although they are ranked in the Top-25), this is a game that the Wildcats absolutely need to win help reverse the negative slide this team has been in since going 10-4 in 2014. Fourteen starters returned this season led by junior quarterback Brian Dawkins. Arizona did outgain the Miners by 292 net yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 175 yards. The Wildcats have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games played on a Friday night. |
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09-22-17 | Virginia +13 v. Boise State | 42-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (305) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (306). Boise State (2-1) will be looking to build off their 28-14 win over New Mexico last Thursday as a 16-point favorite. The Broncos have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while the Boise State offense managed only 264 yards of offense in that contest, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after failing to generate at least 275 yards of offense. Junior quarterback Brett Rypien did not play last week as he was going through the concussion protocol — he has been upgraded to being listed as probable for this contest. But it is unclear what head coach Bryan Horsin will do with his offense when considering that the inconsistent Rypien has no touchdown passes and an interception while Kansas graduate transfer has a 5:1 touchdown to interception ratio while adding 179 rushing yards on the ground. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 11 games at home, Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games. |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
At 8:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (302) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). San Francisco (0-2) looks for their first victory of the season tonight after their tough 12-9 loss on the road in Seattle on Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite. The 49ers have now covered the point spread in 4 straight games against fellow NFC West opponents. Additionally, San Francisco typically plays this Rams’ franchise tough. Not only have they covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against “Los Angeles”, but they have also covered then point spread in 11 of their last 16 games at home against the Rams. Furthermore, the underdog has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in this series. |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 40 | Top | 41-39 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). In this game between two rebuilding teams in the NFC West, look for both teams to try to win the battle at the line of scrimmage with both teams playing on a short week under the leadership of first-year head coaches trying to re-establish the identity of their respective franchises. Expect both teams to stay committed to running the football to keep their defenses off the field — which also serves to limit the number of offensive plays in this game. Los Angeles (1-1) looks to rebound from a 27-20 loss to Washington on Sunday as a 3-point favorite. The Rams allowed the Skins to rush for 229 yards in that game on 33 carries in a strategy that the 49ers will likely try to replicate behind Carlos Hyde — and Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Rams have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West opponents. Furthermore, the Under is 35-15-1 in Los Angeles’ last 51 games on the road — and that includes playing 9 of their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record at home. |
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09-21-17 | Temple +20.5 v. South Florida | 7-43 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
At 7:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (303) plus the points versus the South Florida Bulls (304). Temple (2-1) enters this early important American Athletic Conference contest coming off a 29-21 win over UMass as a 14.5-point favorite last Friday. The Owls have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Temple has also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 33 games against AAC opponents. The Owls should keep this game close after upsetting the Bulls last season by a 46-30 score as a 6-point underdog last October 21st. The key to success in that game was running the ball 51 times for 319 yards against this suspect South Florida defense. Temple still has running back Ryquelll Armstead who exploded for 210 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries in that upset victory last year. The Owls have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Temple has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants UNDER 42 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (289) and the New York Giants (290). Detroit (1-0) opened their season with a 35-23 win over Arizona last week as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. The Lions’ defense forced four turnovers while holding the Cardinals to just 309 yards of offense. But Detroit has then played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now this Lions team goes on the road where they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total. Detroit has also played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3 points or less. |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants -3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (290) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (289). New York (0-1) will be playing with a sense of desperation tonight having lost their opening game of the season in a 19-3 loss in Dallas as a 6-point underdog. Less than 13% of the teams that start the season with two losses have gotten off the mat to make the playoffs — so this is an important contest for the Giants that entered that contest with the Cowboys with deep playoff aspirations. New York has bounced-back to go 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, while the Giants managed only 233 yards of offense last week, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last contest. Dallas won the yardage battle in that Sunday Night by a 159 net yards. But not has New York covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after being outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after being outgained by at least 150 yards. The Giants will likely have the services of Odell Beckham tonight as he has been upgraded to probable despite his leg injury. His presence on the field not only helps Eli Manning by giving him his favorite target but it also will likely compel defenses to provide only single coverage against their new wide receiver Brandon Marshall. New York returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record, the Giants are 5-2-1 ATS. |
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09-17-17 | Packers v. Falcons OVER 53.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (287) and the Atlanta Falcons (288). Atlanta (1-0) returns home to host their first regular season game ever in their new home at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons enter this game coming off a 23-17 win in Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite. Atlanta has then seen the Over go 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Falcons have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Atlanta has played 6 straight games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 11 games at home in Atlanta, the Falcons have played all 11 games Over the Total. |
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09-17-17 | Packers v. Falcons -3 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (208) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (207). Atlanta (1-0) returns home to host a rematch with the Green Bay Packers who they last crushed when these two teams met by a 44-21 score in the NFC Conference Championships last January. The Falcons will also be playing their first game in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium so except an electric atmosphere for this nationally televised game. Atlanta was listless last week in their 23-17 win on the road in Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite. But the Falcons have then rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win. Furthermore, while the Falcons offense did generate 372 yards of offense, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 7 games in the month of September, Atlanta has covered the point spread 5 times. |
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09-17-17 | Eagles +6 v. Chiefs | 20-27 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (271) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (272). Kansas City (1-0) has been the toast of the NFL over the last ten days after their opening night of the regular season beatdown of the Patriots by a 42-27 score despite being 8-point underdogs. Now the Chiefs return home where they have precarious favorites as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games a home fave. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, expect a letdown from the Chiefs’ offensive explosion in that game after they generated 537 yards of offense against the Patriots. KC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. After producing three touchdowns of over 20 yards last week, it is highly unlikely that Alex Smith and company will see similar results today. |
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09-17-17 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 41 | Top | 37-16 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (261) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (262). Tennessee (0-1) looks to bounce-back from an opening week 29-16 upset loss to the Raiders last Sunday despite being a 2.5-point favorite. The Over is then 10-4-1 in the Titans’ last 15 gamers are a point spread loss. Tennessee did generate 350 yards of offense in that loss — and the Over is then 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Titans have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. |
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09-16-17 | Tennessee v. Florida -5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 1 h 49 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (166) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (165). Florida (0-1) has had an extra week to bounce-back from their opening game loss to Michigan in AT&T Stadium on September by a 33-17 score. The Gators were 4.5-point underdogs in that game — and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread loss. Florida has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games for a bye week. This team needs to improve on the offensive side of the football — but facing a stout Wolverines defense did not help. The Gators managed only 11 rushing yards on 27 carries against Michigan — but they are then 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. If Florida needed any extra motivation, they will have it with the memory of losing to the Volunteers team last September by a 38-28 score. |
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09-16-17 | UCLA v. Memphis +3.5 | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (138) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (137). UCLA (2-0) has a challenging trip east for this early kickoff on Saturday as the Bruins’ body clocks will think it is 9 AM. The team enters this game coming off a 56-23 win over Hawai’i last Saturday as a 24-point favorite. But UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. Now this team goes on the road for the first time all season where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games. Furthermore, UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Defense is a concern for this team after they allowed the Rainbow Warriors to outgain them last week by surrendering 515 yards of offense. Of course, that defensive effort was after their opening game against Texas A&M where they executed that miracle 4th quarter comeback to steal that game. UCLA is allowing their opponents to average a whopping 331 rushing YPG along with 6.3 Yards-Per-Carry. Road favorites who have allowed at least 5.5 YPA in their last two games have then failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 31 games (84%) when these conditions applied. |
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09-15-17 | Illinois v. South Florida -17 | 23-47 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls (108) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (107). South Florida (2-0) has had an extra week to prepare for this contest after a listless effort back on September 2nd in which they won by a 31-17 score over Stony Brook. The Bulls actually went into the locker room at halftime with a 10-7 deficit before stepping up their play in the second-half to outlast this FCS program despite being a whopping 35-point favorite. South Florida should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, not only have the Bulls covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as the favorite. Head coach Charlie Strong seemed to be having his team hold some things back in that game — so expect plenty of wrinkles for this prime-time on ESPN which can showcase his team and senior quarterback Quinton Flowers against a Power-Five conference opponent. Additionally, South Florida has still covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the month of September. |
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09-15-17 | UMass v. Temple -15 | 21-29 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (106) minus the points versus the Massachusetts Minutemen (105). Temple (1-1) comes off a sub par effort in a 16-13 win over Villanova as a 6-point favorite last Saturday. The Owls have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss -- and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after a win at home by a field goal or less. Temple returns only ten starters from the group that finished 10-4 last season. They began the year by getting thumped by Notre Dame — but this is a veteran team that has 20 seniors and another 24 juniors on the roster thanks to thirteen redshirted players. Look for this team to play their best game of the season tonight after the tough opening contest with the Irish followed up by a pressure-filled matchup with an FCS geographical rival that would have loved to pull the upset. The Owls have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a favorite in the 7.5 to 14 point range. |
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09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals UNDER 38 | 13-9 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show | |
At 8:25 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). Cincinnati (0-1) was anemic on offense last week in getting shut out by the Ravens by a 20-0 score. The Bengals managed only 221 yards of offense in that game. Now on a short week, do not expect Cincinnati to find many answers for what ails them on offense. As it is, the Bengals have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to gain more than 250 yards in their last game. And in the air last 5 games at home, the Bengals have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Cincinnati has problems on their offensive line which is an ominous sign when now facing this outstanding Texans’ defense. The Bengals did play well on the defensive side of the football last week as they limited the Ravens to just 268 yards of offense. |
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09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals -6.5 | Top | 13-9 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (101). Houston (0-1) had the opportunity to rally the entire city around them in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey last Sunday as they played on their home field. Instead, the Texans embarrassed themselves with a 29-7 loss to the Jaguars in a game where they managed only 203 yards of offense. A -4 net turnover margin did not help matters but the biggest problem was their offensive line. The holdout of left tackle Duane Brown concerned me last week but I concluded that Houston was satisfied they could manage without their best lineman. Instead, Texans’ quarterbacks were sacked a whopping ten times in that game without Brown. As if playing on a short-week was bad enough, the Texans simply do not have an answer for this situation as they will not be signing Brown before the game this week. In fact, head coach Bill O’Brien’s decision to bench his boy Tom Savage for rookie Deshaun Watson was less about Savage’s play and more about Watson being a bit more mobile in lieu of continued poor play from the offensive line. Watson will start this week — if his bum ankle will allow him to go. That is a very tough assignment for a rookie QB on a short week. The Texans are a M*A*S*H unit right now with nine players missing practice on Monday on this short week — and five players in the concussion protocol that will keep them from playing on Thursday. All three of Houston’s tight ends are injured which may leave them empty at this position. This is all bad news for a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games played on a Thursday. The Texans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. It might be tempting to expect Houston to rally around each other given this adversity after such a disappointing effort. However, that is not the personality of this team as they have not only failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in all 4 games. |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico +15.5 v. Boise State | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the New Mexico Lobos (103) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (104). New Mexico (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a frustrating 30-28 upset loss to in-state rival New Mexico State last week. The best way form the Lobos to get the bad taste out of their mouth from that setback is to pull the upset on the Broncos — and they are playing with revenge from a 49-21 loss to Boise State last season. Not only has New Mexico rebounded to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after a loss at home but they have also covered the point spread in 43 of their last 67 games after a loss at home. Furthermore, while the Lobos gave up 500 yards of offense to the Aggies, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 475 yards in their last contest. Additionally, New Mexico has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 point range. And in their last 6 meetings with the Broncos, the Lobos have covered the point spread 5 times. |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico v. Boise State UNDER 59 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico Lobos (103) and the Boise State Broncos (104). Boise State (101) looks to bounce-back from a heartbreaking 47-44 overtime loss at Washington State last week in a game where they had a 31-7 lead with under 11 minutes to go before blowing that lead and eventually succumbing in overtime. This team has quarterback issues with the inconsistent junior QB Brett Rypien benched in their first game before suffering a head injury in the 1st quarter last week against the Huskies. Graduate transfer Montell Cozart finished that game out — but while this 12 of 20 passing for 161 yards with two touchdowns with an additional 72 rushing yards looks dynamic, he completed only 3 of 9 passes to close out the game for just 33 yards which helped Washington State eke that game out. Rypien’s status for this game is questionable which makes things even more difficult for the Broncos on a short week. Don’t be surprised if the former Kansas QB gets the start tonight. Boise State needs to tighten things up on defense after allowing 455 yards to the Cougars. The Broncos have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Additionally, Boise State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 14 games at home, the Broncos have played 11 of thee games Under the Total. |
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Frank Sawyer Football Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-01-17 | Bills v. Falcons OVER 48.5 | 23-17 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
10-01-17 | Titans v. Texans +3 | Top | 14-57 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
10-01-17 | Saints v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 20-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
09-30-17 | Clemson v. Virginia Tech +7.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 41 m | Show | |
09-30-17 | Navy v. Tulsa +8.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 38 m | Show | |
09-30-17 | Maryland +13.5 v. Minnesota | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
09-30-17 | New Mexico State v. Arkansas -17 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
09-29-17 | USC v. Washington State +5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
09-29-17 | Nebraska -5.5 v. Illinois | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
09-29-17 | BYU v. Utah State +1 | 24-40 | Win | 102 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
09-29-17 | Miami-FL v. Duke +6 | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 45 m | Show | |
09-29-17 | Miami-FL v. Duke UNDER 56 | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
09-28-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Packers | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
09-28-17 | Texas v. Iowa State +6 | 17-7 | Loss | -123 | 21 h 22 m | Show | |
09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5 | 28-17 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals UNDER 47 | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 93 h 27 m | Show |
09-24-17 | Raiders v. Redskins +3.5 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
09-24-17 | Raiders v. Redskins OVER 53.5 | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
09-24-17 | Bengals +8 v. Packers | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -130 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
09-24-17 | Broncos v. Bills +3.5 | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
09-24-17 | Steelers v. Bears +7.5 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
09-24-17 | Falcons -2.5 v. Lions | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
09-24-17 | Giants +6 v. Eagles | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 1 h 13 m | Show | |
09-24-17 | Saints +6 v. Panthers | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
09-24-17 | Ravens v. Jaguars +3.5 | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 0 h 27 m | Show | |
09-23-17 | Penn State v. Iowa +13 | Top | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 43 h 28 m | Show |
09-23-17 | Rutgers v. Nebraska UNDER 47.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 1 h 41 m | Show | |
09-23-17 | TCU +10 v. Oklahoma State | 44-31 | Win | 100 | 1 h 39 m | Show | |
09-23-17 | Toledo v. Miami-FL UNDER 61 | 30-52 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 33 m | Show | |
09-23-17 | NC State +11.5 v. Florida State | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
09-23-17 | Arkansas +3 v. Texas A&M | 43-50 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 12 m | Show | |
09-23-17 | UMass v. Tennessee OVER 59.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -117 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
09-22-17 | Utah v. Arizona +4 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
09-22-17 | Virginia +13 v. Boise State | 42-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 40 | Top | 41-39 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
09-21-17 | Temple +20.5 v. South Florida | 7-43 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants UNDER 42 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants -3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
09-17-17 | Packers v. Falcons OVER 53.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
09-17-17 | Packers v. Falcons -3 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
09-17-17 | Eagles +6 v. Chiefs | 20-27 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
09-17-17 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 41 | Top | 37-16 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
09-16-17 | Tennessee v. Florida -5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 1 h 49 m | Show | |
09-16-17 | UCLA v. Memphis +3.5 | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
09-15-17 | Illinois v. South Florida -17 | 23-47 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
09-15-17 | UMass v. Temple -15 | 21-29 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals UNDER 38 | 13-9 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show | |
09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals -6.5 | Top | 13-9 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 47 m | Show |
09-14-17 | New Mexico +15.5 v. Boise State | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
09-14-17 | New Mexico v. Boise State UNDER 59 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |