Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-03-17 | Marshall +7 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 25-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (317) plus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (318). Marshall (6-2) saw their five-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in their 41-30 loss to Florida International despite being a 14.5-point favorite. The Thundering Herd suffered from a -3 net turnover margin in that game which included a 12-yard interception return for a touchdown by the Golden Panthers. Those turnovers overwhelmed the Thundering Herd’s 29 to 21 first down margin as well as their +104 net yardage advantage (505 yards to 401 yards) in that game. Now an underdog on the road, look for Marshall to bounce-back with a big effort. The Thundering Herd are 3-1-1 ATS after a double-digit win at home — and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread loss. Marshall has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning four of their last five contests. Additionally, the Thundering Herd have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. They are outgaining their Conference USA opponents by +141 net YPG which is a better mark than the Owls +125 net YPG mark in conference play. |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Jets (308) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (307). Buffalo (5-2) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 34-14 win over Oakland on Sunday as a 2-point favorite. Look for a letdown from this team as they travel on the road for the first time since October 8th. The Bills are just 1-2 on the road where they are scoring just 14.0 PPG while averaging just 226.0 total YPG. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Bills have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. Buffalo rushed for 166 yards against the Raiders defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. And that rushing effort was after they rushed for 173 yards against the Buccaneers the previous week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in two straight contests. Both those games were at home — and Buffalo averages a mere 3.2 Yards-Per-Carry on the road and totaling a mere 89 rushing YPG in those three games. Furthermore, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC East opponents. |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 43 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (307) and the New York Jets (308). New York (3-5) looks to snap a three-game losing streak tonight after they lost by a 25-20 score at home versus Atlanta on Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog. The Jets managed only 43 rushing yards in that game — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. New York was outrushed by 97 yards in that contest — and they have then played 25 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after being out rushed by at least 75 yards. And while the Falcons outgained them by 107 net yards, the Jets have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being outgained by at least 100 yards. New York allowed 386 yards to Atlanta in that game — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Jets do play better defense at home where they are holding their opponents to just 18.2 PPG along with 324.2 total YPG which is 5 points fewer along with -37.2 net YPG lower than their seasonal averages. This shapes up to be low scoring game with both teams on a short week and when considering that New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East opponents. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. |
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11-02-17 | Northern Illinois +8.5 v. Toledo | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 1 h 51 m | Show | |
At 6:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (309) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (310). Northern Illinois (6-2) has own four games in a row with their 30-27 win in overtime against Eastern Michigan Thursday as a 7.5-point favorite. The Huskies are then 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win. Northern Illinois has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This team lost two tough non-conference games to Boston College and at San Diego State — but the good news for this team is they may have found their answer at quarterback. The Huskies have struggled with vanilla play under center with QBs that have lacked the ability to execute the run and pass aspects of their spread offense. But redshirt freshman Marcus Childers has thrived since taking over. He might have played his best game against the Eagles last week by completing 23 of 40 passes for 283 yards with 2 TDs while adding another 54 rushing yards. For the season, Childers has rushed for 334 yards while completing 61.4% of his passes while averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt and sporting a nifty 9-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio. Northern Illinois also has an outstanding defense that ranked 15th in the FBS by allowing just 307.1 total YPG while being tied for 16th by allowing only 18.0 PPG. The pass defense is limiting opposing QBs to complete just 53.1% of their passes while compiling 25 sacks and and picking off 13 passes. The Huskies are 34-14-3 ATS in their 50 road games and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games as an underdog in the 7.5 to 14 point range. |
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11-01-17 | Central Michigan +4 v. Western Michigan | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Central Michigan Chippewas (305) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (306). Western Michigan (5-3) has won five of their last six games after surviving in Ypsilanti last week in their 20-17 win at Eastern Michigan in overtime as a 2.5-point favorite. The Broncos did receive a blow with sophomore QB Jon Wassink breaking his collarbone in that game which will keep him on the shelf for six to eight weeks. With junior Tom Flacco Joe’s younger brother) transferring to Rutgers in late July, first-year head coach will have to rely on a true freshman QB in Reece Goddard to make his first collegiate start. It will be difficult conditions with rain and wind expected in Kalamazoo tonight. Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, these Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games — and not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games after failing to cover the pint spread in five or six of their last seven home games. |
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10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 42.5 | 19-29 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (273) and the Kansas City Chiefs (274). Denver (3-3) managed only 251 yards of offense last week in their 21-0 shutout loss in Los Angeles to the Chargers. But the Broncos did play well on defense as they held the Chargers to just 242 yards of offense in the losing effort. One of the Los Angeles touchdowns was via a 65-yard punt return. Denver leads the NFL by limiting their opponents to just 258.1 total YPG. The Broncos have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Additionally, Denver has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Broncos have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after both a straight-up loss as well as after a point spread setback. Furthermore, Denver has 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. |
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10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (273) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (274). Denver (3-3) looks to get back to their winning ways tonight in an important divisional game. Fifteen days ago, the Broncos were generally considered one of the top five teams in the NFL. But after their 23-10 loss to the Giants for Sunday Night Football, Denver followed that up with a listless 21-0 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 1-point favorite. Look for this team to rebound with one of their strongest efforts of the season. The Broncos have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses. Denver has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss by at least three touchdowns to a divisional rival. And in their last 25 games after a straight-up loss, the Broncos have covered the point spread 17 times. Denver has certainly spent time on the offensive side of the football after being shut out last week. Defense is not a problem as this team leads the NFL by holding their opponents to just 258.1 total YPG which is the best mark in the league. This defense is also very familiar with Andy Reid, Alex Smith and this Chiefs’ offense. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 trips to Kansas City. Furthermore, Denver has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. |
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10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions +3 | 20-15 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (272) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (271). Pittsburgh (5-2) was impressive last week in their 29-14 win over AFC North rival Cincinnati. The Steelers have bow won two straight games — but consistency remains an issue for this team that is susceptible to letdowns. Pittsburgh was very flat in their losses to Jacksonville and Chicago this season. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning at least two straight games. They are giving the ball to LeVeon Bell more as he has rushed the ball 67 times for 313 yards over the last two games. The Lions do have a good run defense as they rank 7th in the NFL by holding teams to just 94.3 rushing YPG. And while Pittsburgh has outrushed their last two opponents by 81 and 166 yards respectively, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after out-rushing their last two opponents by at least 75 yards in each contest. Furthermore wide receiver Martavis Bryant is unlikely to play in this game as he was banished to the scout team this week after making disparaging comments on social media about a teammate — so Ben Roethlisberger has one less of his weapons at his disposal for this game. |
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10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions UNDER 45 | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (271) and the Detroit Lions (272). Detroit (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 52-38 loss in New Orleans two weeks ago. The Lions have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Detroit has also played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total after a game where they surrendered at least 30 points. The Lions did pass for 312 yards in that loss — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Detroit is struggling to getting a credible ground game going as they have not rushed for more than 97 yards in four straight games. The Lions have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. Additionally, Detroit has played 4 straight games Under the Total after their bye week. With Golden Tate still not 100%, this Lions defense might struggle to reach the 298.0 total YPG they are averaging this season which is just 26th in the NFL. |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys v. Redskins +3 | 33-19 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (269) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (270). All seemed right in the world again at least for a few hours when Dallas (3-3) crushed the 49ers in San Francisco last Sunday with their 40-10 victory as a 6.5-point favorite. But the Cowboys have been consistently inconsistent under head coach Jason Garrett. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. And while they gained 501 yards in that win over the 49ers, Dallas has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Now they travel to the nation’s capital where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against the Skins. |
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10-29-17 | Texans v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (267) and the Seattle Seahawks (268). Houston (3-3) has quickly transformed from a defensive-oriented low-scoring team to a high-flying offensive juggernaut that has to outscore their opponents. Season-ending injuries to J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus on defense along with the emergence of rookie QB Deshaun Watson has been the reasons for this transformation for Bill O’Brien’s team. Over his last three games coinciding with the return of Will Fuller at wide receiver, Watson has throw 12 TD passes with just two interceptions for a Passer Rating of 117. During that span, Watson is being sacked only once in ever 20 pass attempts — and he received a big boost this week when Houston’s star left tackle Duane Brown ended his holdout. Brown should be on the field this afternoon blocking for Watson and this rushing attack that is 3rd in the NFL by averaging 137.7 rushing YPG. The Texans come off their bye week after their 33-17 win over the Browns two weeks ago as a 7.5-point favorite. Houston has then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Texans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And in their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game, Houston has played 4 of these games Over the Total. Moving forward, the Texans have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 21 games in the month of October, Houston has played 16 of these games Over the Total. |
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10-29-17 | Colts +11 v. Bengals | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (263) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (264). Indianapolis (2-5) was embarrassed last week by being shut out by the Jaguars in their 27-0 loss last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. The Colts have then bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. Indianapolis has also covered the point spread in 30 of their last 41 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, while Indy managed only 232 yards of offense in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards. Furthermore, the Colts have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. They travel to Cincinnati to face a Bengals team that is just 1-2 on their home field — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games against teams with a losing record at home. And in their last 37 games against teams with a losing record overall, Indianapolis has covered the point spread 27 times. |
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10-29-17 | 49ers +13 v. Eagles | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (259) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (260). The team with the best record in the league faces off against the team that is tied for the worst record in the NFL — and the price is high for bettors to take this Philadelphia team (6-1) coming off a flashy win in front of a national audience on Monday with their 34-24 win over Washington. Let this line continue to the 13 or perhaps even the 14 point range if you can before kickoff. The Eagles suffered two devastating injuries with left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks suffering season-ending injuries in that game with the Skins — and it will be difficult to replace those two players that played such a vital role in the foundation of their offensive line and front seven on defense. QB Carson Wentz has been impressive — but it is a warning sign that he led the team in rushing on Monday with his 63 yards on eight attempts. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing on Monday Night Football. Philly does stay at home this week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record overall, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games. |
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10-29-17 | Vikings v. Browns UNDER 38 | Top | 33-16 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 59 m | Show |
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (251) and the Cleveland Browns (252). Cleveland (0-7) has already had a tumultuous trip to London this week when they were awoken by a late night alarm at their hotel. The Browns remained winless this season with their 12-9 loss in overtime to Tennessee last Sunday. Cleveland has then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss. The Browns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. The Cleveland defense is good — they rank 9th in the league by allowing only 304.7 total YPG. But the offense is a mess as they rank 31st in the NFL by scoring 14.7 PPG. Rookie QB Deshone Kizer is clearly not ready for the league as he is struggling mightily with NFL defenses. His job just became much worse as well with the season ending injury to the rock on the Cleveland offensive line in Joe Thomas at left tackle. With Thomas out, expect the Browns to run the ball even more which will burn time off the clock. Cleveland has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing five or six of their last seven games Under the Total. |
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10-28-17 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -14 | 10-24 | Push | 0 | 2 h 20 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (140) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (139). Clemson (6-1) takes the field again after losing their first game of the season two Fridays ago with their 27-24 loss at Syracuse as a 24-point favorite. QB Kelly Bryant was knocked out of that game with a concussion but the bye has offered him extra time to recover and he has been upgraded to probable for this contest. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by a field goal or less. Clemson has not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. This team returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. The extra week to rest and prepare will also help this Clemson defense prepare for the unique offense of the Yellow Jackets. The Tigers have handled this spread triple option the last two seasons as they have held Georgia Tech to just 91 rushing yards on 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry last season and only 71 rushing yards on a mere 1.7 YPC average in 2015. |
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10-28-17 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky +7 | 42-28 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 37 m | Show | |
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (198) plus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (197). Florida Atlantic (4-3) has won three straight games with their dominant 59-31 win over North Texas last week at home as a 3.5-point favorite. This team has received plenty of attention this season with Lane Kiffin in his first year here as their head coach. The Owls opened as surprising 4.5-point road favorites in this contest — and the public has not been deterred as they have been bet up to a 6.5-point favorite in many spots as of this writing. Well, that is ridiculous — so lets take this solid Hilltoppers team as a home underdog. FAU is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while junior QB Jason Driskel completed 24 of 35 passes for 357 yards in that game, they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. But this team surrendered 283 passing yards in that win over the Mean Green — and they are then 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, the Owls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Keep in mind that this Florida Atlantic team has not pulled an upset this season — their 4-3 record is in line with Vegas expectations. Furthermore, this team has also been very fortunate with their +1.29 net turnover margin per game which is 6th best in the nation. |
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10-28-17 | NC State +7 v. Notre Dame | 14-35 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (179) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (180). Notre Dame (6-1) comes off a triumphant 49-14 win over USC last Saturday night in a dominant effort. But the Fighting Irish may be due for a letdown now. Notre Dame has then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a win by at least five touchdowns. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while the Irish have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 29 games after the covered the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while Notre Dame has only allowed 24 combined points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight contests. |
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10-28-17 | Georgia v. Florida +14.5 | 42-7 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (196) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (195). Georgia (7-0) remained undefeated two weeks ago in their last game where they defeated Missouri by a 52-38 score. But the Bulldogs are just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while freshman Jacob Fromm completed 18 of 26 passes for 326 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after passing for at least 280 yards. Additionally, Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the month of October. And in their last 4 meetings with the Gators in the Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread all 4 times including suffering a 24-10 loss to Florida last October. |
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10-28-17 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 38-39 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 21 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (206) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (205). Penn State (7-0) avenged an embarrassing 39-point loss to Michigan last Saturday night in their “white-out” game with ESPN Game Day with their 42-13 victory over the Wolverines. Head coach James Franklin and the entire Nittany Lions’ nation has been the toast of the town with that victory signaling the program’s return from disgrace after the Jerry Sandusky travesty. We had Penn State in a big play in that game — and that big win sets up a huge emotional letdown “play-against” situation this week as they travel to Columbus for an even bigger showdown. There is plenty of technical support for this expected letdown. The Nittany Lions have been favored by at least 7.5-points in three straight games — and their 29-point win against Michigan was the closest of those three victories. Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after being a favorite of at least 7 points in three straight games. And in their last 11 games after generating at least three straight wins by at least three touchdowns. Frankly, this Penn State team has been a bit overrated in my view since their fluke win over the Buckeyes last October — more on that in a moment. They impressed many with their loss in the Rose Bowl team to a USC team with three losses this season. They barely survived their game in Iowa City to begin the month where a late touchdown eked out a 21-19 win against an Hawkeyes team that also now has three losses. And then Saquon Barkley and company managed to rush for just 39 yards in their next game against Indiana before earning only 95 rushing yards on 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry the next week against Northwestern. They face a dramatic step in quality against this Buckeyes defensive line this week. Penn State is just 4-11-2 ATS when playing on field turf that accentuates their opponent’s speed. The Nittany Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 7 point range. And in their last 11 trips to Columbus to face the Buckeyes, Penn State has failed to cover the point spread 9 times. |
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10-28-17 | Virginia +1.5 v. Pittsburgh | 14-31 | Loss | -102 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (137) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (138). Virginia (5-2) looks to bounce-back from their 41-10 upset loss to Boston College as a 7-point favorite. The Cavaliers are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after a double-digit loss at home. And while Virginia allowed 512 yards to the Eagles in that contest, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 450 yards in their last game. Now Virginia goes back on the road where they are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games. |
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10-28-17 | Louisville v. Wake Forest +3 | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 1 h 18 m | Show | |
At 12:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (128) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (127). This line looks fishy with Louisville (5-3) only laying a field goal or so agains this Demon Deacons team that has lost three straight games. It looks very easy to take the Cardinals with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in Lamar Jackson after they upset Florida State last week by a 31-28 score as a 6-point underdog. Louisville may be ripe for a letdown, however, when considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. The Cardinals are also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 10 games in the month of October, Louisville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games. This Cardinals team is becoming more and more like one of Bobby Petrine’s teams at Arkansas where the offense is powerful but the defense lags. The Charlie Strong recruits that helped construct an elite Louisville defense have moved on. This defense ranks 63rd in the FBS by allowing 383.3 total YPG. That helps explain why the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record. |
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10-28-17 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina UNDER 55 | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (129) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (130). Miami (6-0) remained undefeated last week with their 27-19 win over Syracuse as a 17.5-point favorite. The Hurricanes have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while QB Malik Zaire passed for 344 yards in that victory, Miami has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a game where they generated at least 280 passing yards. Now they go back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total. The Hurricanes bring with them a defense that is 23rd in the FBS by holding opponents to just 18.7 PPG. |
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10-28-17 | Buffalo University v. Akron UNDER 50 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
At 11:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bulls (123) and the Akron Zips (124). Buffalo (3-5) will be starting a true freshman at QB in Kyle Vantrease with both Drew Anderson and Tyree Jackson declared out for this game. Vantrease completed just 17 of 41 passes last week for 202 yards in the Bulls’ 24-14 loss at Miami (OH) as a 3-point underdog. Buffalo is playing all of their opponents tough with three of their losses by 4 points or less and all five of their defeats being within 10 points — so expect a conservative game plan in this contest with a freshman QB playing in a hostile environment. As it is, the Bulls have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. Furthermore, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points, the Bulls have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Moving forward, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of October. |
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10-27-17 | Tulane +12 v. Memphis | 26-56 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (113) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (114). Memphis (6-1) rallied from a 38-28 deficit with under 5:30 minutes to go in the 4th quarter last Thursday in their 42-38 upset win at Houston as a 1-point underdog. Expect an emotional letdown from this team now as a comfortable favorite back at home. The Tigers are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, they are 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Now they return home where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on their home field. Furthermore, they are only outgaining their opponents by +3.7 net YPG this season despite their gaudy 6-1 record. Four of their victories have been one scoring possession — and there is a good chance this game also will be determined by one score. Memphis is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in October. |
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10-27-17 | Florida State -5 v. Boston College | Top | 3-35 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (111) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (112). Florida State (2-4) saw their tough luck season continue last week with their 31-28 upset loss to Louisville last Saturday as 6-point favorites. After their opening 24-7 loss to Alabama when sophomore Deondre Francois suffered his season-ending knee injury, the Seminoles have lost three more games to NC State, Miami (FL) and then to the Cardinals with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson by a combined 13 points. Jimbo Fisher’s team has probably endured the most difficult schedule in the nation. Now with four losses on the season with challenging road games at Clemson and Florida still on the docket, the Seminoles do not have much more margin of error just to become bowl eligible. Expect a big effort from this team in this critical game. Florida State is 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Seminoles have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while Florida State allowed 293 rushing yards to the Cardinals, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. One of the problems for this team is not having much luck in creating turnovers. The Seminoles have forced only one turnover in each of their last three games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after three straight games when they failed to force more than one turnover in their last game. Florida State is playing outstanding defense still as they are holding their opponents 130 net YPG below their season average for the season. Moving forward, the Seminoles are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road. And in their last 5 Friday night games, the Seminoles have covered the point spread all 5 times. |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (102) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (101). This play is the simple endorsement of John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco with their Super Bowl pedigrees over Adam Gase and Matt Moore. Baltimore (3-4) needs a win after losing two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 24-16 loss in Minnesota on Sunday. Injuries particularly on offense has decimated this team. But the Ravens have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing four or five of their last six games. The Baltimore offense struggled last week against an elite Vikings defense as they managed just 208 total yards. Somehow, I will put faith in Harbaugh to oversee a game plan that will help generate points. They rushed for only 64 yards last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Ravens ended up with only 144 passing yards in that game as well — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. Additionally, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 home games with the Total set in the low range of 35.5 to 38 point range. |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens UNDER 37.5 | Top | 0-40 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (101) and the Baltimore Ravens (102). With this Total set in the 37.5 range as of this writing, oddsmakers seem to be trying coax Over bets. Lets not take the bait. After a week where three teams were shutout and another six teams scored 10 points or less in regulation time, there is a good chance that at least one of these teams with limited offenses will fail to score more than 10 points when playing on a short week. Miami (4-2) enters this game coming off their 31-28 win over the NY Jets last week as a 3-point favorite. The Dolphins did generate 357 yards in that game in their best statistical effort on offense all season — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Miami rushed for just 53 yards in that game — and they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. QB Jay Cutler has been declared out for this game with his rib injury — and while Matt Moore is a capable backup, some of the talk defending him that approaches Dan Marino territory is a bit overblown. Now this team goes on the road where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total. Miami has also played 3 straight games Under the Total as an underdog. The Dolphins do have a top-ten defense in yards allowed while ranking 7th in the NFL by allowing 18.7 PPG. The Under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 games played on a Thursday night. And in their last 26 games in the month of October, the Under is 17-8-1. |
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10-26-17 | South Alabama v. Georgia State | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (106) plus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (105). South Alabama (3-4) has won two straight games with their 33-23 win over UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. But this Jaguars team has been consistent regarding their inconsistency over the years. Not only has South Alabama failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a point spread victory. The Jaguars surrendered 488 yards of offense to the Red Hawks in that game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. This team was reeling just a few weeks ago having lost four of their first five games while firing their offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent. An upset win over Troy back on October 11th is the highpoint of their season. But South Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road. And in their last 24 games in Sun Belt Conference play, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of these contests. |
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10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 49 | 24-34 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (477) and the Philadelphia Eagles (478). Philadelphia (5-1) returns to the field tonight after their 28-23 win at Carolina back on October 12th as a 3-point underdog. The Eagles have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a victory on the road. Philadelphia now returns home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total — and this includes playing four straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Eagles defense kept the Skins in check in the first meeting between these two teams which they won by a 30-17 score. The Skins managed just 264 yards while rushing for only 64 yards in that game. This rematch is back in Philadelphia where the Eagles are holding their guests to just 15.5 PPG. |
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10-23-17 | Redskins +5 v. Eagles | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (477) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (478). The Eagles are the latest Golden Boys for BFL pundits are they upset Carolina for Thursday Night Football back on October 12th. We had Philadelphia in that game — but let’s go against them in this one. Washington (3-2) will be playing with revenge on their mind in this rematch of their 30-17 loss at home to the Eagles back on September 17th. The Skins have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with revenge. They look to build off their 26-24 win over the 49ers last Sunday. Washington’s defense has been a pleasant surprise this season — and they held the 49ers to just 85 rushing yards in that game. The Skins have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing 90 rushing yards in their last game. Washington is averaging 407.3 YPG on offense over their last three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three contests. Now the Skins go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games. Washington has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog in the 45.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record, the Skins have covered the point spread 7 times. TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank. |
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10-22-17 | Falcons +3 v. Patriots | 7-23 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (475) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (476). Atlanta (3-2) has the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone: bounce-back from a second-half collapse last week against the Bills while avenging their Super Bowl loss to the Patriots where they blew yet another second-half lead. The Falcons were cruising along with a 17-0 score at halftime before getting outscored by a 20-0 score in the second-half to lose by a 20-17 score the Dolphins despite being a 14-point favorite. Clearly this Atlanta offense is not as dynamic as it was last season — but they do get wide receiver Mohamed Sanu who plays a critical role for them by making it more painful for opponents to double-team Julio Jones. But the defense should be better with cornerback Desmond Truant healthy again while the team added free agent defensive tackle Dontaru Poe to a talented young group that should improve as the season goes on. Atlanta has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road — and this includes covering the point spread in five of their last six games on the road with a team with a winning record at home. Additionally, Atlanta has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as the underdog. |
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10-22-17 | Falcons v. Patriots OVER 56.5 | 7-23 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (475) and the New England Patriots (476). New England (4-2) got away with one last week with their 24-17 win over the Jets where they rallied from an early two-touchdown deficit and were later beneficiaries of a crazy goal-line ruling where a Jets touchdown was instead called a fumble out-of-bounds that actually cost them their Red Zone possession. The Patriots defense continued to be a significant problem for this team as they allowed a woeful Jets’ offense to generate 408 yards of offense. New England has then played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Pats simply cannot generate a pass rush as they are sacking the quarterback just once in every eighteen passes. This Falcons offense is especially potent when QB Matt Ryan is given time to find open receivers. But New England should keep up in what shapes up to be a scoring bonzana — and that certainly what the books are telling us with the Total set in the mid-50s which is basically begging bettors to take the Under. The Patriots have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a victory. New England has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 72 games at home in Foxboro, the Patriots have played a decisive 49 of these games Over the Total. |
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10-22-17 | Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 40.5 | Top | 14-29 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (455) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (456). Pittsburgh (4-2) returns home this week after their triumphant 19-13 win at Kansas City last week as a 3.5-point underdog. The Steelers defense flexed their muscles by holding the explosive Chiefs offense to just 251 yards of offense in that contest. Pittsburgh was able to control the football for 36L39 of that game due to the outstanding performance of running back LeVeon Bell who ran the ball 32 times for 179 yards. Expect the Steelers to commit to running the football as well in this divisional rivalry. Pittsburgh has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Steelers did generate 439 yards of offense in that victory — but they have then seen the Under go 13-2-1 in their last 16 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 31 games against fellow AFC North opponents, the Under is 21-8-1. |
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10-22-17 | Bucs v. Bills OVER 44.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (461) and the Buffalo Bills (462). Buffalo (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 20-16 loss at Cincinnati two weeks ago as a 4-point favorite. The Bills have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, while Buffalo allowed 388 yards to the Bengals, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this team gets back to work at home after their bye week where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and that includes four straight Overs against teams with a losing record on the road. |
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10-22-17 | Ravens +5 v. Vikings | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (457) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (458). Baltimore (3-3) has lost three of their last four games this season with their 27-24 overtime loss at home to the Bears last week as a 5.5-point underdog. The Ravens have suffered a rash of injuries this season but they have been gritty by winning two of their three games in decisive fashion away from home. Baltimore is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home under head coach John Harbaugh. They are likely to get their star defensive lineman Brandon Williams back for this game which will help. He will help a run defense that allowed 231 rushing yards last week to the Bears. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. But on the plus side for this Baltimore defense, they have held their last two opponents to just 137 and 111 passing yards respectively. The Ravens have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after not allowing at least 150 passing yards in two straight games. |
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10-22-17 | Bucs +3 v. Bills | Top | 27-30 | Push | 0 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (461) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (462). Tampa Bay (2-3) has lost two straight games — and three of their last four games — with their 38-33 loss at Arizona last week as a 2.5-point favorite. The score is not indicative of just how awful the Buccaneers played in that upset loss. Expectations were very high for this team entering the season — but this team is in deep trouble to find themselves out of the playoff hunt in the very competitive NFC South. This is a desperate team much like the Raiders were on Thursday. Expect one of the best games of the season from this Tampa Bay team. The Bucs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite. Tampa Bay has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a contest where at least 70 combined points were scored. It does look like Jameis Winston will make the start in this game after being knocked out of that game with the Cardinals. Even if he cannot go (or finish), backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is capable of winning games on the road. Besides, it will need to be a complete team effort to save this season on the brink for the Bucs. They are getting back linebacker Kwan Alexander for this game to help a defense that surrendered 432 yards last week. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 road games against teams with a winning record at home. |
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10-21-17 | USC +3.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 14-49 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (401) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (402). Notre Dame (5-1) has won four straight games after their loss to Georgia back on September 9th after their 33-10 win at North Carolina two weeks ago as a 12-point favorite. But this Fighting Irish team has been consistently inconsistent in the Brian Kelly era as they typically suffer letdowns just as they start to build some momentum. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Fighting Irish have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. Additionally, while Notre Dame held the Tar Heels to just 265 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing at least 275 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Irish have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 41 of their last 62 games after winning at least four of their last five games. And perhaps most telling under Kelly’s coaching in South Bend, Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Granted, the Irish did snap their “big game” losing streak earlier this year with a win on the road against Michigan State which was in prime-time — but more often than not this Notre Dame team eventually sees their head coach screaming bloody murder at them for not playing up to the standards that he brought to the program from Central Michigan. The Spartans were the second-best team they have faced this year to a solid but now wildly overrated Georgia team that handed them their first loss this season. There other wins over Temple, Miami (Ohio), a bad Tar Heels team and Boston College are just not huge resume builders with the tougher part of the schedule backloaded. Kelly’s mediocrity in South Bend has impacted the talent base with his recruiting classes dropping off. Furthermore, I think they are too imbalanced on offense by relying so much on their running game that is averaging over 300 YPG. Sophomore QB Brandon Wimbush will be back under center for this one after missing the North Carolina game. But he is not doing much with his arm as he is completing just 52.3% of his passes while averaging just 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. I have zero confidence in Wimbush’s ability move the ball with his arm if that is what is asked of him. |
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10-21-17 | Michigan v. Penn State -9.5 | Top | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 48 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (456) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (455). Penn State (6-0) has been licking their chops for this opportunity to avenge an embarrassing 49-10 loss at Michigan last September 24th. The Nittany Lions’ linebacking corps was ravaged with injuries in that game which goes far to explain that blowout. Penn State soon got healthy again at that position and preceded to outscore their opponents in the second half of the season by a whopping 326-130 point margin. Save for their 52-49 loss in the Rose Bowl to USC, the Nittany Lions have won all of their games since that bad loss to the Wolverines. Now at 6-0, Penn State finds themselves in the thick of the National Championship hunt — and they have the opportunity to offer a loud rebuttal to that loss last year to Michigan with ESPN Gameday camped out in Happy Valley for this game and a “White Out” being planned by their fans for this game to be the prime-time game on ABC-TV. The Nittany Lions have the benefit of a bye week after their 31-7 win at Northwestern two weeks ago. Penn State is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Nittany Lions defense flexed their muscles in that game by holding the Wildcats to just 265 yards of offense in that game. Not only is Penn State 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their last game but they are also 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Nittany Lions are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games at home — and that includes covering four straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. |
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10-21-17 | Arizona State v. Utah -10 | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (410) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (409). Arizona State (3-3) pulled a big upset last Saturday night with their 13-7 win over Washington as a 17.5-point underdog. Expect the Sun Devils to suffer a big letdown this week against a good Utah team. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Sun Devils won that game despite lacking balance on offense as they ran the ball for only 40 yards. Arizona State has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards. They did hold the Huskies offense to only 139 passing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing no more than 170 passing yards. Now this team goes back on the road where they do tend to struggle. The Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road — and they are just 17-38-2 ATS in their last 57 road gams against teams with a winning record on the road. |
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10-21-17 | Boston College v. Virginia UNDER 47 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston College Eagles (361) and the Virginia Cavaliers (362). Boston College (3-4) looks to build off their 45-42 upset win at Louisville last week as a 20-point underdog. The offensive explosion in that game from this Eagles team that typically relies on stout defense with points hard to come by on offense was a surprise. Expect things to get back to the lower-scoring ways under fifth-year head coach Steve Addazio. Boston College has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Eagles have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Additionally, while BC allowed 625 yards of offense in that game, the Under is then 43-19-1 in their last 63 games after a game where they allowed at least 450 yards in their last game contest. Now the Eagles stay on the road where the Under is a decisive 36-14-1. |
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10-21-17 | Akron v. Toledo UNDER 61 | 21-48 | Loss | -111 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (327) and the Toledo Rockets (328). Akron (4-3) looks to build off their 14-13 upset win at Western Michigan as a 12.5-point underdog. The Zips have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after both a straight-up loss as well as after a point spread setback. Additionally, Akron has played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing 20 points or less in their last game. The Zips won that game despite managing just 215 yards of offense in that contest. Akron has then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing no more than 275 yards — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring no more than 20 points This team is allowing only 13.0 PPG over their last two games. But they stay on the road agains where they are scoring just 16.2 PPG while averaging a mere 275.5 total YPG. Furthermore, the Zips have played 12 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning record at home. |
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10-21-17 | Temple +7 v. Army | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (339) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (340). Temple (3-4) looks to bounce-back from their 28-24 upset loss last week to UConn despite being a 10.5-point favorite. The Owls have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. Temple dominated this game as they outgained the Huskies by a 473 to 248 yardage margin. The Owls allowed a 34-yard interception return for a TD that helped tip the balance the other way. Temple has then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 29 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Now the Owls go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. And in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record, Temple has covered the point spread in 7 of these contests. They will certainly be motivated to avenge a 28-13 upset loss to Army last September where they were laying two touchdowns. This team has 20 seniors and 24 juniors on the roster who will remember well that bad loss from last season. |
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10-21-17 | Oklahoma State v. Texas +7 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (392) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (391). Texas (3-3) hung tough with the Sooners last week in a 29-24 loss to Oklahoma as a 9-point underdog. Texas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread win. This team seems to have found their answer at QB in freshman Sam Ehlinger who passed for 278 yards while adding another 206 yards on the ground. Overall, the Longhorns passed for 289 yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Head coach Tom Herman has proven himself a very dangerous coach when his team is an underdog. His teams have won straight-up five of the last seven games he has coached as the dog with the two losses being this year in close games against USC and then the Sooners. Texas is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Now the Longhorns return home where they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games. And in their last 3 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points, Texas has covered all 3 contests. The Longhorns have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 home games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Despite their 3-3 record, they are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +76.5 net YPG. |
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10-20-17 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +10 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New Mexico Lobos (314) plus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (313). New Mexico (3-3) looks to bounce-back from an ugly 38-0 loss at Fresno State last week despite being a 2.5-point road favorite. The Lobos mist have been feeling themselves after two straight wins against Tulsa and Air Force as they failed to show up against the Bulldogs. Expect head coach Bob Davie to have had his teams’ full attention all week after that poor performance. New Mexico has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Lobos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score at least 20 points. Furthermore, New Mexico has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to a conference foe — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss to a Mountain West opponent. The Lobos’ pistol spread offense can be tricky for opponents to prepare for — they have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games against teams with a winning record. This team is also outgaining their opponents by +35.1 net YPG. Back at home in Albuquerque, New Mexico scores 40.7 PPG while generating 473.3 YPG. They are outscoring their visitors by +12.0 PPG while outgaining them by +180.6 net YPG. Furthermore, the Lobos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. |
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10-20-17 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State +2 | 38-10 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 1 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (310) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (309). Middle Tennessee (3-4) looks to bounce-back from a disappointing 25-23 upset loss at UAB despite being a 4.5-point favorite. The Blue Raiders have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread setback. This team suffered a big blow when their junior quarterback Brent Stockstill suffered a concussion against Minnesota and has not yet been cleared to play for the last few games. Redshirt sophomore John Urzua is completing 64.2% of his passes and averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt but he is throwing too many interceptions. Expect the team that beat the team (Syracuse) who beat Clemson to step up in this critical game for this football program (although, that logic can now be applied to UAB …). Despite their losing record, the Blue Raiders are outgaining their opponents by +19.8 net YPG. They will be motivated to avenge a 42-17 upset loss to what was otherwise a lost year for Marshall last season. Middle Tennessee is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 46.5 | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (301) and the Oakland Raiders (302). Kansas City (5-1) looks to bounce-back from their first loss of the season on Sunday in their 19-13 loss at home to the Steelers as a 3.5-point favorite. The Chiefs have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is a decisive 35-15-1 in their last 51 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Under is 19-7-1 in Kansas City’s last 27 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Moving forward, the Chiefs have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the month of October. And in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record, KC has played 8 of these games Under the Total. And in the last 24 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 18 times. |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (302) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (301). My initial thoughts entering Week Seven this week of the NFL season is that I would like the Chiefs playing on a short week coming off their loss to the Steelers (where we had a big play on Pittsburgh). But upon my deep dive into this situation, we want to be investing in this Oakland team (2-4) that will be playing with desperation in a season-defining game for them. Besides, it seems like most of the betting world is following the logic of taking Kansas City off a loss against a Raiders team who have lost four in a row — so let’s be Happy Contrarians with this game as there are still plenty of reasons to consider this Chiefs team overvalued (more on that below). The prospects of losing their fifth game this season and falling three games behind the Chiefs in the AFC West standings might be an insurmountable hole for Jack Del Rio’s team to overcome. And when considering that Oakland lost a key game to Kansas City last December 8th by a 21-13 score, this is a “circle the wagons” moment. The Raiders have lost four straight while failing to meet point spread expectations in four straight games after their 17-16 loss to the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Most observers expected Oakland to take a step or two back from their 12-4 campaign last year even if they were a better football team than last year’s group. But this has been a very unfortunate start for this team that had three of their first four games on the road just before Derek Carr suffered his back injury that kept him out of their home game with the Ravens. Carr returned last week but was limited in completing 21 of 30 passes but for just 171 yards. Then again, Oakland enjoyed the lead for most of that game before the Chargers nailed a field goal as time expired to steal that game. Expect this team to embrace the physical style of football preferred by Del Rio and win this game at the line of scrimmage while taking advantage of the additions they made in the offseason to combat this Chiefs team. That means plenty of Beast Mode by Marshawn Lynch and the tough Raiders offensive line. And expect immediate dividends to be paid from their acquisition of Navarro Bowman who was the leading tackler for the 49ers before they released him this week in a salary cap move with them still winless this season. Bowman is just what the doctor ordered for this team at middle linebacker. Except a strong effort from this team as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing a game against a divisional rival. |
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10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -2.5 | 42-38 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (304) minus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (303). Houston (4-2) looks to bounce-back from a devastating 45-17 loss at Tulsa last Saturday. The Cougars were a 13.5-point favorite in that game and entered the locker room at halftime with a 10-7 lead but then were crushed by a 38-7 score in the second-half to lose that game. Three Houston turnovers created 21 points for the Golden Hurricanes as they rode the momentum of those miscues to that blowout victory over the Cougars. Now Houston returns home with the opportunity to redeem themselves while also avenging a 48-44 upset loss to Memphis last November. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Houston has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a Thursday night. This remains a good team — with an elite future NFL talent at nose tackle in Ed Oliver — that returned fifteen starters from their 9-4 group under the leadership of first-year head coach Major Applewhite. |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7 | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (276) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (275). Tennessee (2-3) entered the season with very high expectations. This team flashed their potential earlier this season with a 21-point win on the road against Jacksonville before defeating one of the blue blood franchises of the NFC in the Seattle Seahawks. But an injury to QB Marcus Mariota slowed this team down and was a significant factor in their 16-10 loss at Miami last week. Veteran Matt Cassel lacks the mobility under center that this offense requires to hum as he completed 21 of 32 passes but for only 141 yards. The good news for the Titans is that Mariota is likely to be under center tonight having passed the hurdle of head coach Mike Mularkey that he will be mobile enough to have success tonight. Tennessee needs to secure a win tonight against a divisional rival to snap a two-game losing streak where they have scored only 14 and 10 points — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after scoring 14 points or less in their last two games. Furthermore, the Titans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on Monday Night Football. |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans OVER 47 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (275) and the Tennessee Titans (276). Indianapolis (2-3) has won two of their last three games with their 26-23 win in overtime over San Francisco last week. The Colts have found an answer at QB during the continued absence of Andrew Luck with Jacoby Brissett who was always an intriguing prospect when initially drafted in the 3rd round by the Patriots after a good career at NC State. Brissett completed 22 of 34 passes for 314 yards with a TD while adding another 14 yards with a TD on the ground. By giving the Colts a credible passing attack, the running game has thrived as well behind age-less wonder Frank Gore and Marlon Mack. Indy ran the ball 35 times for 159 yards in their win over the 49ers — and they have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. But defense has been a problem for this team. Brain Hoyer passed for 336 yards against them — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last game. The Colts are allowing 408 YPG over their last three games — and they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Moving forward, Indianapolis has played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing on grass. The Colts have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, Indianapolis has played 25 of their last 34 games on the road — and they have 19 of their last 25 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. And in their last 7 games played in the month of October, Indy has played 6 of these games Over the Total. |
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10-15-17 | Giants +13 v. Broncos | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 50 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (273) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (274). Hold your nose if you need to — I plan on it. But no one wants to bet on New York (0-5) tonight with bets pouring in on the rested Broncos. With the line now offering the Giants +13 in many places (and wait as long you can to bet this game — this thing might move to +14 before kickoff), the sound fundamental play is to take the underdog. I could take about their injuries (short answer: it is worse than you can imagine) but that would only be depressing. Lets put it this way: The Giants still have Eli Manning along with an above average defense. And they are playing desperate having not won a game yet this season. But this does make them the wounded animal that everyone has counted out for this game — and head coach Ben McAdoo is playing up that “us against the world” mentality. New York looks to bounce-back from a 27-22 loss to the Chargers last Sunday — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Giants are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. If there is a bright side for this team, it is their emerging running game after McAdoo made the decision to give up on Paul Perkins. New York generated 152 rushing yards last week behind rookie Wayne Gallman from Clemson who ran the ball 11 times for 47 yards along with Orleans Darkwa who added 69 rushing yards on eight carries. The Giants are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. And whole the New York defense has surrendered 382 and 434 yards in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games. |
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10-15-17 | Giants v. Broncos OVER 38 | 23-10 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (273) and the Denver Broncos (274). The fact the Giants’ wide receiving corp is out with injuries has helped move the Total of this game down at least 3 points from its opening at 41. Denver (3-1) has a great defense — but the Over is still 8-3-2 in their last 13 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Broncos have had an extra week to rest and prepare after their 16-10 win over the Raiders as a 3.5-point favorite back on October 1st. Denver has played 6 straight games Over the Total after a win at home. The Broncos have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. |
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10-15-17 | Chargers v. Raiders -3 | 17-16 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (272) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (271). Oakland (2-3) needs a victory after suffering an upset 30-17 loss at home to the Ravens last Sunday. The Raiders have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. Oakland’s defense did allow 365 yards in that contest — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Look for head coach Jack Del Rio to have his team increase their physicality as they look to get back to basics. And don’t be surprised if this team that has not had an interception yet and has forced only four turnovers all season sees some bounces go their way when it comes to turnovers. The team also looks to get quarterback Derek Carr back on the field after he missed the Baltimore game with an ailing back. Carr should be in pretty good shape given the return rate of this injury combined with the short-term miracles of modern medicine. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. |
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10-15-17 | Steelers +5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 89 h 9 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (269) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (270). Pittsburgh (3-2) was embarrassed last week at home in a 30-9 loss to the Jaguars despite being a 7.5-point favorite. In the post-game press conference, Ben Roethlisberger went so far to say that he wonders if he “Maybe I don’t have it anymore.” I suspect that was Big Ben being sheepish and perhaps making a subtle attack on his entire team. He has been outspoken about the culture in the locker room — and perhaps he is inching closer to retirement. But he is also a competitor — and I expect he to lead this team that had such high expectations to begin the season to go out and play their best game of the season against the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL in these Chiefs. As it is, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Big Ben did throw for 312 yards in that game — but he also threw a career high five interceptions. Expect Roethlisberger to take responsibility for those miscues by raising his level of play in this game to prove that he is not ready for the retirement home just yet. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where they generated at least 350 yards of offense. They need to run the ball more after Le’Veon Bell rushed only 15 times for 47 yards. Bell has suffered a sow start as he seems to get into game shape after his contract holdout. But he looked in prime form two weeks ago when he ran the ball 35 times for 144 yards with two touchdowns against the Ravens tough defense. Moving forward, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home, the Steelers are 22-8-2 ATS. |
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10-15-17 | Packers v. Vikings +3.5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (260) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (259). Minnesota (3-2) looks to build off their 20-17 victory over the Bears as a 3.5-point favorite for Monday Night Football. This is a fishy line with the Packers seeming to be locked-in at -3 to -3.5 still this morning despite a vast majority of the money going on their side. Taking the road favorite looks like a trap — especially when considering how effective head coach Mike Zimmer has been in the past in devising defensive schemes to slow down Aaron Rodgers in his career. The Vikings rushed for 159 yards against the Bears in their victory — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Minnesota has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And the Vikings have been a very reliable team on their home field. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games on their home field which includes covering the point spread in nine of their last ten home games against teams with a winning record on the road. |
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10-15-17 | San Jose State v. Hawaii -17 | Top | 26-37 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
At 12:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (220) minus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (219). Hawai’i (2-4) looks to bounce-back from a 35-21 upset loss at Nevada last week as a 3.5-point favorite. The Rainbow Warriors have bounced-back to win 4 of their last 6 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Hawai’i has lost four straight games but they were the underdogs in those first three losses before suffering the disappointing loss to the Wolf Pack. Defense has been an issue to this team as they have allowed 610 and then 566 yards in their last two games. But the Warriors have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 525 yards in their last game. Now this team returns home to play just their third home game all season. After crushing Western Carolina by 23 points on September 2nd, Hawai’i then lost at home by 30 points to a good Colorado State team two weeks ago. The Rainbow Warriors have still covered the point spread in 22 of their last 37 home games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 62 point range. If Hawai’i was not motivated to stop their losing streak tonight, second-year head coach Nick Rolovich will remind this team of their 34-17 loss to the Spartans last year despite being a 3-point favorite. |
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10-14-17 | UCLA -2.5 v. Arizona | 30-47 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (177) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (178). Arizona (3-2) looks to build off their 45-42 upset win at Colorado last Saturday as a 7-point underdog. The Wildcats have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after an upset victory. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory — so an emotional letdown is likely. The Wildcats return home where they have failed to cover the point spreading 5 of their last 7 games at home. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. |
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10-14-17 | Michigan State v. Minnesota +4.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (210) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (209). Michigan State (4-1) comes off a huge win for their embattled program with their 14-10 upset win at Michigan as a 13-point underdog last Saturday night. The Spartans won that game in big rainstorm in the second-half of the season with the benefit of a +5 net turnover margin. Michigan State was outgained by a 300 to 252 net yardage gap in their victory which is not a good sign for them moving forward. The Spartans are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games after not generating 275 yards in their last game. It has been a gauntlet for this team with three straight games against Notre Dame, Iowa and then their arch rivals last week — so an emotional letdown is likely. Michigan State now stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Sparty has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games as a favorite. |
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10-14-17 | Navy v. Memphis -3.5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
At 3:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (194) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (193). Memphis (4-1) looks to build off the momentum of their 70-31 win at UConn last Friday. The Tigers generated a whopping 711 yards of offense in that contest — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The team is getting great play from their QB Riley Ferguson who completed 34 of 48 passes for 431 yards and seven TD passes against the Huskies defense last week. Ferguson has a 16 to 5 touchdown to interception ration this season. Now Memphis returns home for the first time in three weeks where they have covered the point spread in 16 of the last 23 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. This team will be looking to avenge a 42-28 loss to the Midshipmen last October 22nd. The Tigers have struggled on defense after allowing 7.54 and 6.91 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 6.75 YPP in each of their last two games. |
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10-14-17 | Auburn v. LSU +7.5 | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (208) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (207). LSU (4-2) looks to build off their 10-3 win at Florida last week as a 1.5-point favorite. Now the Tigers return home with the opportunity to play spoiler to an Auburn team that is getting plenty of national attention right now. They will certainly notice that they are the underdogs in this game. LSU is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing 20 points or less in their last contest. Additionally, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 20 points or less in their last game. And in their last 7 games in the month of October, LSU has covered the point spread 6 times. The Tigers held the Gators to just 108 passing yards in their victory — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after holding their last opponent to no more than 170 passing yards. And while QB Danny Etling passed for only 125 yards himself against the Florida defense, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to pass for more than 125 yards. |
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10-14-17 | Virginia v. North Carolina +3.5 | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (133) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (132). Virginia (4-1) enters this game coming off a 28-21 upset win at home over Duke as a 1-point underdog. The Cavaliers held the Blue Devils to just 255 yards of offense in that game — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Virginia now goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. And in their last 5 games against ACC opponents, the Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games. |
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10-14-17 | Ohio v. Bowling Green UNDER 63 | 48-30 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 0 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (119) and the Bowling Green Falcons (120). Ohio (4-2) looks to rebound from their 26-23 upset loss to Central Michigan last Saturday despite being a 10.5-point favorite. The Bobcats should tighten things up on defense under head coach Frank Solich. Not only has Ohio played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss but they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bobcats have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 6 games in the month of October, the Under is 5-0-1. |
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10-14-17 | Toledo v. Central Michigan UNDER 55 | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 1 h 55 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (123) and the Central Michigan Chippewas (124). Central Michigan (3-3) enters this game riding high after they upset Ohio on the road last week by a 26-23 score as a 10.5-point underdog. The Chippewas have then played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Central Michigan has also played a decisive 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They return home to Muskegon where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on their home field — and they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in the last 8 games in the month of October, the Chippewas have played 6 of these games Under the Total. |
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10-14-17 | Rutgers v. Illinois UNDER 48.5 | 35-24 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 41 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (135) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (136). Rutgers (1-4) has had a week off to recover from their 56-0 loss at home to Ohio State back on September 30th. The Scarlet Knights have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Rutgers managed only 209 yards of offense in that game — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Now the Scarlet Knights go back on the road where they are scoring only 17.0 PPG while averaging just 194.0 total YPG. Rutgers has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. |
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10-14-17 | South Carolina v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 15-9 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (206) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (205). Tennessee (3-2) has had an extra week off to regroup, rest and prepare for this contest after they were humiliated back on September 30th at home by Georgia by a 41-0 margin as a 10-point home underdog. Head coach Butch Jones had better have used that time to do everything he can to salvage his season since updating his resume will not help him get a job if he can not turn things around this year in his 5th season in Knoxville. One good decision he has made was to bench junior QB Quinten Dormady for redshirt freshman Jarrett Guarantano. The younger QB has as strong an arm as Dormady but gives the offense more options to move the football with his better legs. Expect Jones to get more out of his offense after being shutout by the stout Bulldogs defense. The Volunteers managed only 142 total yards of offense (84 passing yards) against Georgia — but Tennessee has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after failing to pass for at least 125 yards and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to generate at least 275 total yards in their last contest. The Vols should play one of their best games of the season after entering the year with high expectations with fourteen starters back from last year’s 9-4 team that won their bowl game against Nebraska by 13 points. Tennessee has only covered the point spread once in their last five games but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss as well as covering the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 57 games after failing to score the point spread in two straight games. And if this team did not need even more motivation, they will be looking to avenge a 24-21 upset loss at South Carolina last year despite being a 15-point favorite. |
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10-13-17 | Washington State v. California +17 | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (112) plus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (111). California (3-3) has been ravaged with injuries this season — particularly on the offensive side of the ball where expected starters in running back Tre Watson as well as wide receivers Demetris Robertson and Melquise Stovall all have suffered season-ending injuries. This attrition eventually became too much for the Golden Bears last week in a 38-7 loss at Washington where they managed only 93 yards of offense. Some that performance should be credited to the Huskies defense which is superior to the Washington State defense despite what the numbers might say at this point of the season. But Cal simply cannot play worse on offense even with their extensive injuries on that side of the ball. An extra week of practice with their younger players being asked to take starting jobs will help this offense — and so will returning home to play for the first time in three weeks. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after suffering two straight double-digit loss on the road. Cal has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Sophomore QB Ross Bowers completed 11 of 18 passes but totaled just 80 passing yards against Washington. First-year head coach Justin Wilcox has called for changes on offense — at the very least to reconfigure things for the talent still standing which might mean that backup junior QB Chase Forrest gets some snaps. Why not? The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to pass for at least 170 yards in their last game. Remember, this is a team that was tied with USC in the 4th quarter last month before three straight turnovers helped the Trojans walk away with a 10-point win. Cal has managed only 93 and 263 yards in each of their last two games since that contest with USC — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to generate at least 275 yards in two straight games. The Golden Bears return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as the underdog. |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers UNDER 46 | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (103) and the Carolina Panthers (104). Philadelphia (4-1) enters this game coming off their 34-7 win over Arizona on Sunday. The Eagles have then played a decisive 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Philadelphia has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. The Eagles do have the second best run defense in the NFL as they are holding their opponents to just 62.8 rushing YPG. Philly has also seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. |
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10-12-17 | Eagles +3.5 v. Panthers | Top | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (104) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (103). Carolina (4-1) looks due for a big letdown after scoring their second-straight upset victory with their 27-24 win in Detroit as a 2-point underdog. That win came on the heels of their upset win on the road in New England the week before. But the Panthers are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up victory — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. Cam Newton has been outstanding over his last two games by completing 26 of 33 passes for 355 yards against the Lions. He is completing over 77% over his last two games — but that may mean the Complacent (and bad) Cam may be about to make a reappearance when playing on a short week. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. And while they held the Lions to just 242 yards of offense, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after holding their last opponent to 250 or fewer yards. Carolina does not hold much of a home field advantage as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. And in their last 8 appearances on Thursday Night Football, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread 6 times. |
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10-11-17 | South Alabama +18 v. Troy | 19-8 | Win | 100 | 2 h 49 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (101) plus the points versus the Troy Trojans (102). Troy (4-1) returns to the field after their 24-21 upset win at LSU as a 20.5-point underdog two Saturdays ago. Now with this team a double-digit favorite against their in-state rival in the Battle of the Belts, expect an emotional letdown from the Trojans. As it is, Troy has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset win. The Trojans have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a bye week. Despite returning 98.7% of their total yards from last year’s team that led the Sun Belt Conference in scoring, Troy is scoring only 24 PPG this year — and they have not scored more than 27 points this season against any of their FBS opponents which includes mediocre defenses from New Mexico State and Akron. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home. Troy has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 12 home games when laying 14.5 to 21 points, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games. |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +4 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (476) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (475). Few bettors will want to back Chicago (1-3) tonight after their last game was an appearance on Thursday Night Football where they were humiliated in Green Bay by a 35-14 score as a 7.5-point underdog. A -4 net turnover margin did the Bears in that game — and the mistakes and instability exhibited by QB Mike Glennon under center prompted the organization to use the extra days off to give the nod to their rookie Mitch Trubisky to make his first start tonight. I don’t expect Trubisky to play like fellow rookie Deshaun Watson — but his presence on the field should excite his teammates to raise their level of play tonight. The fans in Soldier Field will certainly be fired up. Chicago has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on their home field. The fact is that this Bears team is not as bad as their record over the last two seasons suggests. They held the Packers to just 260 yards last week. While they were just 3-13 last year, they actually outgained their opponents by +9.7 YPG despite being riddled with injuries all season. This is a physical team on both sides of the football. They just need Trubisky to not make mistakes — and that is what did Glennon in. The Bears have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Chicago has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Bears have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And in their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football, Chicago has covered the point spread 5 times. |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 40.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
PLEASE NOTE: Our play is on the Under. I committed a data entry error when loading this play and there lacks a quick fix to this on my end of things. I apologize for the confusion while hoping it is my only mistake of the day. Thanks, Frank. At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Chicago Bears (476). Minnesota (2-2) looks to bounce-back from their 14-7 loss at Detroit last Sunday. The Vikings have now played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against NFC North opponents. Minnesota has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the month of October. And in their last 18 games after failing to score more than 14 points, the Vikings have played 13 of these games Under the Total. The teams looks to get QB Sam Bradford back under center tonight but he returns with his phenom running back Dalvin Cook out the season with a torn ACL. Losing Cook will slow down this offense. Moving forward, Minnesota has seen the Under go 15-6-1 in their last 22 games on the road — and this includes playing 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Chicago (1-3) looks to bounce-back from a 35-14 loss in Green Bay two Thursdays ago as a 7.5-point underdog. The Bears have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And in their last 4 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game, the Bears have played all 4 games Under the Total. With head coach John Fox tapping rookie Mitch Trubisky to make his first NFL start tonight, expect the team to game plan to put him in a position to succeed by running the ball plenty and shortening the length of this game — and that helps our Under play. Moving forward, Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of October. Lastly, the Bears have played a decisive 48 of their last 76 games at home Under the Total as an underdog getting 7 points or less. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Chicago Bears (476). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans OVER 44 | 42-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (473) and the Houston Texans (474). Kansas City (4-0 remained the only undefeated team in the NFL on Monday with their 29-20 win over Washington. The Chiefs have been dynamic on offense with an inspired Alex Smith at QB completing 27 of 37 passes for 293 yards. He was complemented by rookie running back Kendall Hunt who rushed the ball 21 times for 101 yards. Overall, Kansas City rushed for 168 yards en route to their 429 total yards of offense. That bodes well for another high scoring game tonight. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Furthermore, KC has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when on the road. |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1.5 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (474) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas City Chiefs (473). Houston (2-2) is brimming with confidence right now after their 57-14 win over Tennessee last week. The Texans have an elite defense (#1 in Total Defense last season even with J.J. Watt missing most of the season) — but they now look like they have found their long awaited answer at quarterback with rookie Deshaun Watson under center. The former Clemson National Champion completed 25 of 34 passes for 283 yards with four TD passes and he added another 24 yards on the ground with another TD. Watson’s mobility will give the Chiefs problems tonight. Kansas City has already seen Carson Wentz rush for 55 yards and Kirk Cousins scramble for 38 key yards — and neither of them are as mobile as Watson. Overall, the Texans generated 445 yards of offense against the Titans last week — and they are then 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Houston is also 11-5-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Texans stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. |
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10-08-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -2 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (472) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). Dallas (2-2) looks to bounce-back from a 35-30 upset loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday. Don’t blame QB Dak Prescott for that loss as he completed 20 of 36 passes for 252 yards and three TD passes against the Rams defense. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Dallas also ran the ball for 189 yards behind Ezekiel Elliott who rushed for 85 yards on 21 carries. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game. Elliott running the ball on first down should put Dallas in the position to win this game. In their two games against the Packers last season, Elliott ran the ball 32 times on first down where he accumulated 216 of the 285 rushing yards he generated against the Green Bay defense. Generating yardage on first down was the straw that stirred the drink for the Cowboys offense last season. They ran the ball 59.4% of the time on first down last year and averaged 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry on those plays which set up short yardage for second and third downs. This took plenty of pressure off Prescott and helped offensive coordinator Scott Linehan be more flexible with their play-calling since they were not in long yardage situations. Look for Dallas to get back to this winning formula against the Packers. It was a -2 net turnover margin that played a big role in their loss to the Rams last week. When the Cowboys get their offense going, they are tough to beat. Dallas had 440 total yards last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of October. |
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10-08-17 | Seahawks +1 v. Rams | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
At 4:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (467) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (468). Los Angeles (3-1) returns home after upsetting the Cowboys in Dallas last Sunday by a 35-30 score as a 5-point underdog. The Cowboys generated 412 yards of offense in that game under the seemingly resurrected Jared Goff under center. But the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. But Los Angeles also allowed 440 yards of offense to the Cowboys in that contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This team is just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games against fellow NFC opponents — and that includes having failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against NFC West foes. This is not much of a home field advantage for the Rams right now with them still unfamiliar with their new field and not many LA residents taking to their new professional football teams. That is not a good sign for a team that is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home. |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (454) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (453). Buffalo (3-1) was the toast of the NFL last week after they traveled on the road to Atlanta and upset the reigning NFC Champions by a 23-17 score as an 8-point underdog. The Bills stole that game despite getting outgained by 108 net yards and losing the first down battle by a 25 to 15 margin. A +3 net turnover margin made the winning difference for Buffalo in that game. Look or the Bills to fall back to Earth in this contest. They stay on the road again for the second straight week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road gams against teams with a losing record at home. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games on the road where they are an underdog getting 3 points or less. The Bills are getting it done with defense as they have not allowed more than 17 points in their four games this season. But Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after allowing no more than 17 points in three straight games. |
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10-08-17 | Cardinals +7 v. Eagles | 7-34 | Loss | -115 | 0 h 14 m | Show | |
Take the Arizona Cardinals plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles. Arizona (2-2) looks to build off their 18-15 win in overtime over the 49ers last week. Carson Palmer seems to be on track again this season as he has passed for over 1000 yards over his last three games. The Cardinals have not allowed any of their four opponents to rush for at least 100 yards this season — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in four straight games. Philadelphia (3-1) is dealing with injuries on their defense most notably Fletcher Cox. They allowed Eli Manning and Philip Rivers to pass for a combined 713 yards against their defense — and what those two QBs have in common is that their teams have yet to win a game this season. The Chargers gained 400 yards against the Eagles last week — and they are 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Philly is being asked to lay too many points. Take Arizona plus the points. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports suffered their first losing in over a week with their 6-7 mark yesterday — but Frank still remains on a SENSATIONAL 65% WINNING STREAK over his last 140 plays in All-Sports (91-49)! Frank GETS BACK TO HIS WINNING WAYS TODAY — and it all starts in the NFL with the 1 PM ET slate of games! Frank begins the day on a RED HOT 29 of 41 (71%) NFL run which includes a 12 of 17 (71%) NFL Side mark — and while he only likes one play for the early slate of games, it is a situation that has B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it! BANK on Frank! Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports suffered their first losing in over a week with their 6-7 mark yesterday — but Frank still remains on a SENSATIONAL 65% WINNING STREAK over his last 140 plays in All-Sports (91-49)! Frank GETS BACK TO HIS WINNING WAYS TODAY — and it all starts in the NFL with the 1 PM ET slate of games! Frank begins the day on a RED HOT 29 of 41 (71%) NFL run which includes a 12 of 17 (71%) NFL Side mark — and while he only likes Buffalo-Cincinnati play for the early slate of games, it is a situation that has B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it! |
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10-07-17 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska +11 | 38-17 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers (404) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (403). Nebraska (3-2) looks to build off their 28-6 win at Illinois last Friday night. The Cornhuskers have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Nebraska has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 20 points or less in their last contest. The Cornhuskers flexed their muscles on defense against the Illini by holding them to just 199 yards of offense. Nebraska has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Throw out the Cornhuskers’ season stats on defense as the light bulb turned on for that unit at halftime of their game at Oregon. In their last fourteen quarters of play, Nebraska is allowing only 7.8 PPG. This team will also be looking to avenge a 23-17 loss to Wisconsin in Madison last season. Frankly, this Cornhuskers team is probably better than that team while this Badgers team may have taken a step back despite them still being undefeated at this early point of the season. And Nebraska is very tough at home in night games where they have won their last twenty contests. |
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10-07-17 | Washington State v. Oregon +3.5 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (378) plus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (377). Washington State (5-0) pulled off a big upset last Friday night on their home field when they defeated USC by a 30-27 score as a 4.5-point underdog. The Cougars now go on the road for the first time all season — and they looked primed for a big letdown when now facing to playing in a hostile environment for the first time since last November. Even more challenging, this will be a nationally televised game in a tough environment in Autzen Stadium — and at night to boot. As it is, Washington State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win by a field goal or less against a fellow Pac-12 opponent. And while the Cougars generated 462 yards of offense against the Trojans in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games. A +1.0 net turnover margin — ranking tied for 17th in the FBS — is helping this team remain unbeaten. But the bounces and the mistakes may start going against them now that they are not playing at home. And two of Washington State’s victories were by just a field goal — so this could be a 3-2 team if a break or two went the other way. Tellingly, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. |
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10-07-17 | Michigan State +10.5 v. Michigan | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
At 7:30 PM EDT on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (349 plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (350). Michigan State (3-1) lost always plays the Wolverines as they have covered the point spread in 9 straight encounters for the Paul Bunion Trophy. The Spartans enter this game coming off a 17-10 win over Iowa last week. Sparty flexed their muscles on defense in that game as they held the Hawkeyes to just 226 yards in that contest. That is a good sign for this rivalry game. Michigan State is 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Spartans are also 17-8-2 ATS in their last 27 games after not allowing 20 points or less in their last contest. Michigan State is holding their opponents to an impressive -163 YPG below their season offensive average. Defense travels — and the Spartans are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. |
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10-07-17 | Kansas State +7 v. Texas | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (407) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (408). Kansas State (3-1) looks to build off their 33-20 win over Baylor last week as a 14.5-point favorite. The Wildcats have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. And while Kansas State allowed 291 passing yards in that win, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The formula for success for head coach Bill Snyder’s team has been winning the rushing battle. The Wildcats have out-rushed their last three opponents by +141, +136 and +194 net yards over their last three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after out-rushing their last three opponents by at least +125 net rushing YPG. Snyder always coaxes improvements from his team which explains why they are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games in the month of October. And in their last 30 road games as an underdog, Kansas State has covered the point spread 21 times. |
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10-07-17 | SMU v. Houston -6.5 | 22-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM EDT on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (400) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (399). Houston (3-1) will be looking to avenge a 38-16 loss to SMU last October despite them being 23-point underdogs in that contest. The Cougars enter this game coming off a 20-13 win at Temple. Houston is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. This team has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games coming off a win in the road. And in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, the Cougars have covered the point spread 4 times. |
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10-07-17 | LSU +3 v. Florida | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM EDT on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (395) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (396). LSU (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their embarrassing 24-21 loss at home to Troy last week. Running back Derris Guice did not play in that game as he was dealing with a knee injury — but he has been upgraded to probable for this important conference play. Despite their two losses, the Tigers are still very much alive to win the SEC West if they win their rest of their games — including a date down the road with Alabama. So this will remains a motivated team. A -2 net turnover margin helped do LSU last week as that ruined their 65 net yard advantage. They did hold the Trojans to just 157 passing yards — and they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. LSU has covered 6 straight games in the month of October. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 7 meetings with the Gators, LSU has covered the point spread 5 times. They should be very motivated to avenge an upset 16-10 loss to Florida as a 13.5-point favorite last season. |
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10-07-17 | Miami-FL v. Florida State +3.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (418) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (417). Florida State (1-2) has National Championship aspirations but an opening loss to Alabama which included a season-ending injury to their sophomore quarterback Deondre Francois along with then some warranted Hurricane Irma distractions and then returning to host a tough NC State team (as Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson found out on Thursday) left this team 0-2. The Seminoles showed result last week by traveling to Winston-Salem to face a gritty and defensive-minded Wake Forest team that would have loved to have upset them too — but Florida State came away with a 26-19 victory as a 7-point favorite. Now this team has the opportunity to ruin their arch rival Miami’s perfect start to the season while keeping their possible ACC Championship Game hopes alive (just win out). Head coach Jimbo Fisher still has an elite defense that held the Crimson Tide to just 269 yards of offense. Nine starters returned from the unit that allowed only 18.5 PPG along with 293.2 total YPG over their last eight games last season. Freshman QB James Blackman was solid under center against the Demon Deacons as he completed 11 of 21 passes for 121 yards and TD pass (no interceptions). Remember that Fisher is the Young QB Whisperer and the team can lean on junior running back Jacques Patrick who rushed for 120 yards and a TD on 19 carries last week. Look for the Seminoles to play their best game of the season this afternoon. Florida State has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up victory — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. The Seminoles have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a victory on the road where they did not cover point spread expectations. Florida State is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered there point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and that includes three straight winners in that situation when playing at home. And in their last 32 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Seminoles have covered the point spread 23 times. |
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10-07-17 | Duke +2.5 v. Virginia | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
At 12:20 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (335) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (336). Virginia (3-1) has had more than two weeks to relish in their 42-23 upset victory at Boise State back on September 22nd. We had the Cavaliers in that contest — but they looked primed for a letdown now. Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset victory by at least two touchdowns as a road underdog. And while the Cavaliers held the Broncos to just 30 rushing yards in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in ACC play. And in their last 7 games at home, the Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. |
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10-07-17 | Georgia v. Vanderbilt +18 | 45-14 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM EDT on Saturday, we will be playing the Vanderbilt Commodores (386) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (385). Georgia (5-0) remains undefeated after they buried Tennessee in Knoxville last week by a 41-0 score. Coming on the heels of their 31-3 win at home over a Mississippi State team that had just upset LSU, the Bulldogs are feeling very good about themselves with renewed National Championship aspirations after defeating two of the better teams of the SEC by a combined 71-3 score. Call Hershel Walker — but, in the meantime, expect this team to suffer a big emotional letdown on the road against the book worms over at Vandy. As it is, Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a road win by at least four touchdowns. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games after a double-digit win on the road. And with their 28-point win over Samford being their preceding game before they ventured into conference play, Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after registering three straight wins by at least 17 points. With sophomore QB Jacob Eason now healthy again, there are the seeds of a QB controversy with him on the bench — for now — with freshman Jake Fromm now under center. As it is, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Georgia defense held the Volunteers to just 142 yards of offense (while benefiting from a +3 net turnover margin) — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. And in their last 8 games in October, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread 6 times. |
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10-07-17 | Penn State v. Northwestern +14.5 | 31-7 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM EDT on Saturday, we will be playing the Northwestern Wildcats (332) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (331). Penn State (5-0) may have a difficult time not looking ahead to the gauntlet of their schedule starting next week where they look to avenge an ugly loss to Michigan before then engaging in a showdown with Ohio State with both those games likely determining the winner of the Big Ten East Division. The Nittany Lions enter this game coming off a 45-14 blowout win over Indiana last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 45 games after a win by at least four touchdowns. And while Penn State has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 40 games after covering the point spread in at least three of their last four games. There are some warning signs for this team as they managed just 320 yards of offense last week with Heisman Trophy hopeful Saquon Barkley running the ball only 20 times for 56 yards. Head coach James Franklin has been running Barley ragged so don’t be surprised if they rest that dude in preparation for these next two weeks. Penn State rushed for just 39 yards against the Hoosiers — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last game. And in their last 9 games on the road, the Nittany Lions has failed to cover the point spread 6 times — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three of their last four road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. |
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10-07-17 | Tulsa +5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 28-62 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
At 12:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (361) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (362). Tulsa (1-4) looks to salvage their season on Saturday having dropped three straight games after a 31-21 loss at home to Navy as an 8.5-point underdog. The Golden Hurricanes have endured a difficult schedule to begin their 2017 campaign — opening with Oklahoma State while also playing two other bowl teams in New Mexico and the Midshipmen last week. The defensive numbers for this team are a nightmare right now — but they have not padded their schedule with cupcakes. This is the third straight week that Tulsa will be playing against a spread triple option ground game so they have faced this style of defense as much as one of the armed forces schools as this point. Regression was expected for this team in head coach Philip Montgomery’s third year after returning thirteen starters from their triumphant 10-3 team last year. They lost their QB Dane Evans from that team — but sophomore Chad President has been solid run the Baylor-style offense that Montgomery earned his reputation as the “Quarterback Whisperer.” President completed 12 of 18 passes for 115 yards and a TD pass last week while adding another 151 rushing yards with a TD on the ground. Look for the Golden Hurricanes to play very hard in this make-or-break game for their bowl aspirations. Tulsa has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They did rush for 229 yards last week against Navy — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Golden Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against conference opponents under Montgomery. And in their last 16 games on the road, Tulsa has covered the point spread 13 times. |
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10-06-17 | Memphis v. Connecticut +15 | 70-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
At 7:30 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (308) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (307). Memphis (3-1) saw their three-game winning streak shattered on Saturday by Central Florida in a 40-13 loss on the road. It will be difficult for this team to bounce-back to win this game by more than two touchdowns on a shortened week while staying on the road for a second straight trip. As it is, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Memphis has also lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road. Furthermore, this Tigers team is an ugly 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on grass. Defense has been an issue for this team after they surrendered 350 rushing yards to the Knights en route to their whopping 603 yards they allowed in that 27-point loss last week. The Tigers have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 525 yards in their last contest. And while Memphis has still won three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after winning three of their last four games. |
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10-05-17 | Patriots -5 v. Bucs | 19-14 | Push | 0 | 33 h 25 m | Show | |
At 8:25 PM EDT on Thursday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (303) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (304). New England (2-2) suffered an embarrassing 33-30 loss to the Panthers on Sunday as a 9-point favorite. The team has quickly gone from being discussed in some circles as going a perfect 19-0 to now be being burdened by a “historically bad” defenses. With the Patriots now laying more than 4 points on the road against a Buccaneers team that has won six straight games at home, the oddsmakers are practically begging bettors to take the home dog. Don’t take the bait. New England is a decisive 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after a point spread loss. And while their withering defense allowed 444 yards last week, the Patriots have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. New England has also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Look for the Patriots to run the ball more this week to keep their defense off the field to help them fresher. New England ran the ball only 19 times against Carolina for 80 yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Things are fine on the offensive side of the football overall — and they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road. And in their last 59 games in the month of October, New England is 40-16-3 ATS — and that includes covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in Week 5 just after the 1/4 mark of the season. |
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10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs UNDER 56 | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 33 h 23 m | Show | |
At 8:25 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (303) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (304). New England (2-2) has been dismal on defense so far this season as they are allowing 32.7 PPG along with 456.7 total YPG. They surrendered 444 yards last week in their 33-30 loss to Carolina at home in Foxboro. The oddsmakers have responded by placing this Total very high in the low 50s. This is an opportune time to be contrarian and expect a lower scoring game — and this line of thinking is supported by an empirical angle that has been 77% effective over the last ten seasons. New England has seen their last two games finish Over the Total by 15 and 24.5 points over their last two games — and in games after the first month of the season involving a road team that has seen their last two games finish Over the Total by at least two touchdowns, these games then finished Under the Total in 30 of the last 39 situations where these conditions applied. The Patriots defense is not as bad as the numbers suggest in these first four games. And while the New England offense has been prolific still behind Tom Brady, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where they gained at least 350 yards in their last game (Patriots: 373 yards last week). Furthermore, the Pats have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing on grass. |
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10-05-17 | Louisville v. NC State UNDER 66 | 25-39 | Win | 100 | 33 h 52 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM EDT on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisville Cardinals (305) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (306). Louisville (4-1) has won two straight games with their 55-10 win over Murray State last Saturday. The Cardinals have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Louisville held the Racers to just 80 yards in that game — and they have then seen the Under go 17-8-1 in their last 26 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their last contest. This Cardinals team once again has a strong defense that returned seven starters from last season — and they are 27th in the nation so far this year by holding their opponents to just 317.6 total YPG. Moving forward, the Under is 18-7-1 in Louisville’s last 26 games in October. And in their last 24 games as a favorite in the 3.5 to 10 point range, the Cardinals have played 18 of these games Under the Total. |
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10-05-17 | Louisville v. NC State +4.5 | Top | 25-39 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EDT on Thursday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (306) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (305). Louisville (4-1) remains on paper one of the best teams in the nation by Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson. The junior was sensational in his last game against Murray State as he completed 18 of 26 passes for 249 yards and three TDs while adding another 100 yards and a TD on the ground en route to a 55-10 blowout victory. But that is the deal with this Cardinals team: they overwhelm inferior teams but fall short against good teams. This team got exposed late last season by dropping their last three contests to Houston, Kentucky and then LSU in the Citrus Bowl. The issue was on their offensive line as that unit was dominant in all three of those games. The Cardinals managed to score just 19.0 PPG over those last three contests after putting up an average of 49.6 PPG in their first eleven games. Too many penalties and too many missed assignments were the main culprits that epitomized this poor play. By the end of the season, Louisville had also allowed 47 sacks and 83 tackles-for-loss which were both 3rd worst in the nation. Head coach Bobby Petrino responded in the offseason by hiring Mike Summers as co-offensive coordinator as well as the offensive line coach to help rebuild a line that only returned both starting tackles. Their biggest test of their offensive line was against Clemson three weeks ago and Jackson was sacked five times in a 47-27 loss where they were outgained by -180 net yards. Now this team faces an outstanding from seven with this Wolfpack team led by defensive end Bradley Chubb that bypassed the NFL last season to return for his senior year. Chubb has 22 tackles for loss last season and already has another 12 tackles for loss this season. NC State returned eight senior starters from the group that 8th in the nation in run defense by holding opponents to 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry last season — more on this team that has already upset Florida State this season. But this is precisely the type of team that has given Jackson and this Cardinals team fits to hand them four losses over their last eight games. While Louisville has feasted on Kent State and the Racers last week representing an FCS school, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the month of October. |
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10-04-17 | Arkansas State -7.5 v. Georgia Southern | 43-25 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (301) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (302). Arkansas State (1-2) begins their Sun Belt Conference season looking to bounce-back from their 44-21 loss at SMU two Saturdays ago on September 23rd. The Red Wolves have rebounded to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Arkansas State has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a bye week. The Red Wolves did surrender 580 yards in that game to the Mustangs — but they have then covered the point spread in 38 of their last 56 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Don’t worry too much about the losing start to the season for Arkansas State as they once again embraced a challenging non-conference campaign that started with a narrow 7-point loss at Nebraska in the opening week of the season. Last year, the Red Wolves started 0-4 but then won eight of their last nine games to tie for first place in the Sun Belt before going on to win the Cure Bowl in a 31-13 victory over Central Florida. This is situation normal for head coach Blake Anderson in his fourth year with the program. Arkansas State is 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 games in conference play. And in their last 6 games in Sun Belt play, they have covered the point spread in 5 times. |
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10-04-17 | Arkansas State v. Georgia Southern UNDER 55 | Top | 43-25 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas State Red Wolves (301) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (302). Georgia Southern (0-3) is still looking for the first win of the season after their 52-17 loss at Indiana back on September 23rd. The play of the Eagles defense was not quite as bad as the scoreboard reflected with two of the Hoosiers’ touchdowns resulting from a 70-yard punt return as well as a 22-yard fumble recovery. Overall, Georgia Southern allowed 468 yards in that game — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Eagles have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Now Georgia Southern begins conference play with a bit of a blank slate. This team needs to get their “Flexbone” offense going again after this team got away from that foundation last season in the first year under head coach Tyson Summers. The team averaged 22 passing attempts last season which was double the amount in the previous season under Willie Fritz. The Eagles did rush for 242 yards against Indiana — and they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Keeping the potent Arkansas State offense off the field has to be a top priority for this team tonight. Georgia Southern has played 7 of their last 9 games in the Sun Belt Under the Total. And in their last 6 games in the month of October, the Eagles have played 5 of these games Under the Total. |
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10-02-17 | Redskins +7.5 v. Chiefs | 20-29 | Loss | -140 | 31 h 22 m | Show | |
NOTE to subscription clients: I am upgrading Washington from a 10* to 20* play upon final analysis. In terms of money management, I advise that 20* rated plays warrant your typical investment (versus 10* plays that warrant 50% of your normal investment or 25* plays where I recommend a 25* increase in your normal investment). Thanks, Frank. At 8:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (279) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (280). Kansas City (3-0) is the toast of the league right now being one of two teams that is undefeated after beginning the season on that Thursday night where they crushed the Patriots in Foxboro. The Chiefs enter this game coming off a 34-17 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. Now the Chiefs return home to Arrowhead with the reputation that is a very difficult place to play for the visitors — but Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home. Quarterback Alex Smith completed 16 of 21 passes last week against the Chargers for just 155 yards — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. |
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10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs UNDER 49.5 | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (279) and the Kansas City Chiefs (280). Kansas City (3-0) remained one of the two remaining undefeated teams in the league last week with their 34-17 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers. The stout Chiefs defense has not allowed more than 20 points in six of their last eight games. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. QB Alex Smith passed for only 155 yards in that game — and they have then seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last game. Now the Chiefs return home where they have played a decisive 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total — and this includes playing eight of their last eleven home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, KC has played 5 of their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football Under the Total. |
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10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks -12.5 | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (278) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (277). Seattle (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a disappointing 33-27 loss at Tennessee last week. The Seahawks won the first-down battle by a 24-21 margin in that game while also outgaining the Titans by 13 net yards despite losing on the scoreboard. This team should bounce-back as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. I don’t usually like to lay double-digits in the NFL — but I do like cashing winning tickets. Seattle usually saves their best efforts for prime-time games in front of their rowdy home fans. Under head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 44-13 at home in prime-time games — and this includes a 12-2 mark against the AFC. Of course, we need a relative blowout to cover the point spread — but take heart that Seattle has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The encouraging aspect for the Seahawks last week was their play on the offensive line improved (as Carroll has expected). QB Russell Wilson played one of his best games as a pro after completing 29 of 49 passes for 373 yards with four TD passes while adding another 26 yards on the ground. When Seattle gets their passing attack going, they are very tough to beat as they are 22-6-2 ATS in their last thirty games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Seahawks’ defense should be feisty as well after seeing the Titans rush for 195 yards against them — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 150 yards in their last game. |
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10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks OVER 42 | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (277) and the Seattle Seahawks (278). Indianapolis (1-2) looks to build off their 31-28 win over Cleveland last Sunday as a 1-point underdog. The Colts got very good quarterback play from for Patriots’ signal caller Jacoby Brissett who completed 17 of 24 passes for 259 yards and a TD pass. Now the Colts go on the road where they have played 24 of their last 33 games Over the Total on the road. Indianapolis has also played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the month of October. And in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record, the Colts have played 5 of these games Over the Total. Furthermore, with the Total set in the low range around 41, Indianapolis has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. |
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10-01-17 | Raiders v. Broncos UNDER 44 | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 1 h 52 m | Show | |
At 4:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (275) and the Denver Broncos (276). A couple of new pieces of information this afternoon pushes this situation into a worthwhile investment opportunity with the Under. First, Denver (2-1) has moved to become a favorite of 3.5 points in many locations — and they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favorited in the 3.5 to 10 point range. Second, the Raiders will officially be without their wide receiver Michael Crabtree who is dealing with a chest injury. The impact of injuries can be overstated — but that has not been the case lately in the NFL with the mass attrition that many teams are facing (especially on the offensive line — it really does make a difference if one or two key players cannot take the field). |
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Frank Sawyer Football Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-03-17 | Marshall +7 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 25-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 43 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
11-02-17 | Northern Illinois +8.5 v. Toledo | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 1 h 51 m | Show | |
11-01-17 | Central Michigan +4 v. Western Michigan | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 42.5 | 19-29 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions +3 | 20-15 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions UNDER 45 | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
10-29-17 | Cowboys v. Redskins +3 | 33-19 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
10-29-17 | Texans v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
10-29-17 | Colts +11 v. Bengals | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
10-29-17 | 49ers +13 v. Eagles | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
10-29-17 | Vikings v. Browns UNDER 38 | Top | 33-16 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 59 m | Show |
10-28-17 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -14 | 10-24 | Push | 0 | 2 h 20 m | Show | |
10-28-17 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky +7 | 42-28 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 37 m | Show | |
10-28-17 | NC State +7 v. Notre Dame | 14-35 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
10-28-17 | Georgia v. Florida +14.5 | 42-7 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
10-28-17 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 38-39 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 21 m | Show |
10-28-17 | Virginia +1.5 v. Pittsburgh | 14-31 | Loss | -102 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
10-28-17 | Louisville v. Wake Forest +3 | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 1 h 18 m | Show | |
10-28-17 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina UNDER 55 | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show | |
10-28-17 | Buffalo University v. Akron UNDER 50 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
10-27-17 | Tulane +12 v. Memphis | 26-56 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
10-27-17 | Florida State -5 v. Boston College | Top | 3-35 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens UNDER 37.5 | Top | 0-40 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
10-26-17 | South Alabama v. Georgia State | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 49 | 24-34 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
10-23-17 | Redskins +5 v. Eagles | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 21 m | Show |
10-22-17 | Falcons +3 v. Patriots | 7-23 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
10-22-17 | Falcons v. Patriots OVER 56.5 | 7-23 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
10-22-17 | Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 40.5 | Top | 14-29 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
10-22-17 | Bucs v. Bills OVER 44.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
10-22-17 | Ravens +5 v. Vikings | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
10-22-17 | Bucs +3 v. Bills | Top | 27-30 | Push | 0 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
10-21-17 | USC +3.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 14-49 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
10-21-17 | Michigan v. Penn State -9.5 | Top | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 48 h 44 m | Show |
10-21-17 | Arizona State v. Utah -10 | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
10-21-17 | Boston College v. Virginia UNDER 47 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
10-21-17 | Akron v. Toledo UNDER 61 | 21-48 | Loss | -111 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
10-21-17 | Temple +7 v. Army | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
10-21-17 | Oklahoma State v. Texas +7 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
10-20-17 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +10 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
10-20-17 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State +2 | 38-10 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 1 m | Show | |
10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 46.5 | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -2.5 | 42-38 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7 | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans OVER 47 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
10-15-17 | Giants +13 v. Broncos | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 50 m | Show | |
10-15-17 | Giants v. Broncos OVER 38 | 23-10 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
10-15-17 | Chargers v. Raiders -3 | 17-16 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
10-15-17 | Steelers +5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 89 h 9 m | Show |
10-15-17 | Packers v. Vikings +3.5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
10-15-17 | San Jose State v. Hawaii -17 | Top | 26-37 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
10-14-17 | UCLA -2.5 v. Arizona | 30-47 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
10-14-17 | Michigan State v. Minnesota +4.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
10-14-17 | Navy v. Memphis -3.5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
10-14-17 | Auburn v. LSU +7.5 | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
10-14-17 | Virginia v. North Carolina +3.5 | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
10-14-17 | Ohio v. Bowling Green UNDER 63 | 48-30 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 0 m | Show | |
10-14-17 | Toledo v. Central Michigan UNDER 55 | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 1 h 55 m | Show | |
10-14-17 | Rutgers v. Illinois UNDER 48.5 | 35-24 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 41 m | Show | |
10-14-17 | South Carolina v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 15-9 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
10-13-17 | Washington State v. California +17 | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers UNDER 46 | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
10-12-17 | Eagles +3.5 v. Panthers | Top | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
10-11-17 | South Alabama +18 v. Troy | 19-8 | Win | 100 | 2 h 49 m | Show | |
10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +4 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 40.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans OVER 44 | 42-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1.5 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -2 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Seahawks +1 v. Rams | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
10-08-17 | Cardinals +7 v. Eagles | 7-34 | Loss | -115 | 0 h 14 m | Show | |
10-07-17 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska +11 | 38-17 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
10-07-17 | Washington State v. Oregon +3.5 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Michigan State +10.5 v. Michigan | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
10-07-17 | Kansas State +7 v. Texas | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
10-07-17 | SMU v. Houston -6.5 | 22-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
10-07-17 | LSU +3 v. Florida | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
10-07-17 | Miami-FL v. Florida State +3.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Duke +2.5 v. Virginia | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
10-07-17 | Georgia v. Vanderbilt +18 | 45-14 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
10-07-17 | Penn State v. Northwestern +14.5 | 31-7 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
10-07-17 | Tulsa +5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 28-62 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
10-06-17 | Memphis v. Connecticut +15 | 70-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
10-05-17 | Patriots -5 v. Bucs | 19-14 | Push | 0 | 33 h 25 m | Show | |
10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs UNDER 56 | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 33 h 23 m | Show | |
10-05-17 | Louisville v. NC State UNDER 66 | 25-39 | Win | 100 | 33 h 52 m | Show | |
10-05-17 | Louisville v. NC State +4.5 | Top | 25-39 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
10-04-17 | Arkansas State -7.5 v. Georgia Southern | 43-25 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
10-04-17 | Arkansas State v. Georgia Southern UNDER 55 | Top | 43-25 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
10-02-17 | Redskins +7.5 v. Chiefs | 20-29 | Loss | -140 | 31 h 22 m | Show | |
10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs UNDER 49.5 | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks -12.5 | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks OVER 42 | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
10-01-17 | Raiders v. Broncos UNDER 44 | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 1 h 52 m | Show |