Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-03-17 | Ducks +107 v. Oilers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 107 | 36 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Anaheim Ducks (10:00 EST). I played the Ducks in Game 3 and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in Game 4 as well. The Oilers took the first two games of this series, but Anaheim got right back into it with a dominating 6-3 win in Game 3. The Ducks have to be liking their chances tonight as well as they’re now 28-10 in the last 38 games in this series. Anaheim wasn’t great on the road in the regular season, but so far it’s 3-0 away from friendly confines in the playoffs. Keep your eyes on Jakob Silfverberg, who now has six goals in the postseason. I think these goaltenders are a “wash,” as either John Gibson of the Ducks or Cam Talbot of the Oilers has the ability to take over a game on any given night (Talbot is 6-3 with a 2.47 GAA in the playoffs, while Gibson is 4-2 with a 2.80 GAA). I’ll point out that Anaheim is 33-19 (+9.2 units) in its last 52 when playing on two days rest, while Edmonton is just 4-7 (-4.8 units) in the same position this season. I had a feeling that the Ducks would come out poised in Game 3 and that it was the Oilers that had the pressure on them to perform in front of the home town crowd. And I think that line of thinking also applies in this one as well. Expect the Ducks’ veteran leadership to once again get the better of the younger Oilers. Play on Anaheim. Good luck…Larry |
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05-03-17 | Capitals v. Penguins +105 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 34 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (7:15 EST). I played the Penguins in Game’s 1 and 2 and then came back with the Capitals in Game 3. Sidney Crosby is out, but the Pens are an incredibly deep team and I think they offer great value as a slight dog at home in this situation. The Capitals finished as the Presidents Cup Trophy Winners in the regular season, but despite the Game 3 setback, so far it’s been Pittsburgh which has looked like the better team in this series. The Penguins are stacked from top to bottom with talent and have been getting World class goaltending from veteran Marc-Andre Fleury. Pittsburgh was an OT goal away from having a 3-0 stranglehold on this series, but the Pens still have to be liking their chances tonight, even without their captain in the line-up. I think the goaltenders are a “wash.” Braden Holtby got the win for Washington last time out and he’s now 5-4 with a 2.54 GAA in the postseason. Fleury is 6-2 with a 2.44 GAA so far in the playoffs. Either one of these guys has the capability of taking over a game on any given night. Ultimately I feel that the Pens will step up and rally in this moment after their leader has gone down. The defending champs won’t be going down without a fight and as I stated off the top, I feel they offer tremendous value in this position. Washington has been in this spot many times over the last few years and has consistently choked (still just 6-10, -5.6 units in the second round of the playoffs the L3 years combined). Play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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05-02-17 | Blues +150 v. Predators | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the St. Louis Blues (9:35 EST). I think the desperate Blues offer great value here to steal Game 4. So far this has been a competitive series, with each team trading victories to this point. Nashville took Game 1, 4-3, while the Blues took Game 2, 3-2. Nashville then won 3-1 in Game 3. Now it’s time for St. Louis to get back on track here and snatch back the home ice advantage. Pekka Rinne has been unbelievable for the Predators, but Jake Allen has been pretty good for St. Louis as well. Allen is 5-3 with a 2.04 GAA and 93.8 save percentage in the postseason, while Rinne is 6-1 with a 1.38 GAA and 95.0 save percentage. Rinne’s numbers are better, but not by that much. Clearly either one of these netminders has the capability to completely take over a game on any given night. So in my opinion, that means that they’re a “wash.” The Blues had scored ten goals in three games previous before Game 3 and I think that offense wakes up again tonight. I’ll point out that St. Louis is 14-10 (+3.3 units) this year after a loss by two goals or more, while Nashville is just 12-17 (-9.6 units) this season following a win by two goals or more. I think that Nashville finally has a letdown here and the hungry Blues find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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05-01-17 | Capitals +118 v. Penguins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 118 | 33 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Washington Capitals (7:30 EST). I played on Pittsburgh in Game’s 1 and 2 of this series, but for Game 3 I’m backing the now desperate Capitals, which are essentially in a “do-or-die” scenario tonight. Washington lost to the Pens in the second round of the playoffs last year as well. The Capitals were a good road team this season, finishing 25-19 away from friendly confines. Braden Holtby took his second loss in a row, he’s now 26-28 with a 1.98 GAA lifetime in the postseason. The Capitals finished third in scoring offense in the regular season, and No. 1 on the defensive end in conceding just 2.16. Clearly Pittsburgh looks pretty dominant right now, but so too did the Oilers after they grabbed a 2-0 series lead over Anaheim, only to then fall 6-3 at home in Game 3 last night (I had a play on the Ducks in that one.) Marc-Andre Fleury has looked great to this point for Pittsburgh, but one has to wonder when he’ll have his first “hiccup?” The Pens finished with the No. 1 offense in the regular season with 3.39 GPG, while ranked just 17th on the defensive end in conceding 2.79. I’ll point out though that Washington is 27-14 (+7.6 units) in its last 41 after a loss by two goals or more in its previous contest. I think the desperate Capitals offer great value here, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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04-30-17 | Ducks +117 v. Oilers | Top | 6-3 | Win | 117 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Anaheim Ducks (7:00 EST I played the Ducks in Game’s 1 and 2 and I’m obviously 0-2 at this point. But with its back against the wall, I think Anaheim finds a way to get the job done in Game 3. I will admit, I’m obviously surprised at how well the younger Oilers have played to this point. Momentum is a very real, almost tangible factor at times in sports (especially in the playoffs) and Edmonton would seemingly have it on its side. But I’m not writing off Anaheim quite yet. The Ducks steamrolled the Flames in four straight games, but have been caught a little flat-footed against the speedy Oilers. Now that the series has shifted North of the border, I think we’re going to see a much more aggressive attack from this veteran laden Anaheim team. So far Cam Talbot has gotten the better of John Gibson in net, but I still firmly believe that the goaltenders are completely even in this series. The trends also support us here, as note that the Ducks are 10-5 (+5.6 units) this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while the Oilers are just 7-8 (-2 units) this year after playing three consecutive road games and only 7-9 (-4 units) after a three game unbeaten streak. Anaheim outshot Edmonton 40-23 in Game 3 and it’s now outshot the Oilers in both games. Something has to give tonight and as this is essentially a “do-or-die” game for the Ducks, I think the correct call is on the visitors tonight. Play on Anaheim. Good luck…Larry |
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04-29-17 | Penguins +128 v. Capitals | Top | 6-2 | Win | 128 | 31 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (8:00 EST). I played on the Penguins in Game 1 and I think they’re going to roll in Game 2 as well. These teams are very familiar with each other and for the most part, they’re pretty much even across the board. Goaltending is a “wash” in my opinion. The Pens have a bit more depth on the offensive side of the ice though, which I think will once again prove to be too much for Washington to overcome. The numbers/trends also heavily favor Pittsburgh in this one, as note that the Pens are 10-6 (+2.1 units) in their last 16 when leading in a playoff series, while the Capitals are only 5-9 (-4.9 units) in their last 14 in the second round of the playoffs. The value is simply too good to turn down, play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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Larry Ness NHL Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-03-17 | Ducks +107 v. Oilers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 107 | 36 h 55 m | Show |
05-03-17 | Capitals v. Penguins +105 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 34 h 31 m | Show |
05-02-17 | Blues +150 v. Predators | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 59 m | Show |
05-01-17 | Capitals +118 v. Penguins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 118 | 33 h 58 m | Show |
04-30-17 | Ducks +117 v. Oilers | Top | 6-3 | Win | 117 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
04-29-17 | Penguins +128 v. Capitals | Top | 6-2 | Win | 128 | 31 h 28 m | Show |