Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-29-17 | Texas A&M v. Wake Forest -3 | 52-55 | Push | 0 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
ASA 9* PLAY ON: Wake Forest (-) vs Texas A & M, Belk Bowl Friday, 1 PM ET - The Aggies finished the season in ugly fashion and now the coaching situation of course is a mess for the bowl game following the firing of head coach Sumlin. His departure was certainly expected and should lead to a brighter future for the Aggies but it certainly won't help them in this match-up with Wake Forest. While Texas A & M wrapped up the season with 3 losses in their last 5 games, the Demon Deacons won 2 of their last 3. Wake Forest was a covering machine as they went 8-3-1 ATS on the year. The Aggies late season slump is unlikely to reverse itself here. Texas A & M is 2-8 ATS when off of a loss versus an SEC foe. The Aggies are also 0-5 SU and ATS when playing with 2 or more weeks between games. The Demon Deacons are a long-term 9-1 ATS in games played on a neutral field. The location here (in Charlotte, NC certainly does favor Wake Forest though. Look for the Demon Deacons to control the ground game in this one as they have averaged only 90 rushing yards per game their last 7 games! Wake Forest averaged 184.2 rushing yards per game on the season! This season, on 4 different occasions. the Demon Deacons put up the most yards their opponent allowed all season! As you can see, the Demon Deacons offense can be quite dynamic and the Aggies are truly trudging into this bowl game. The Aggies went 1-5 SU versus bowl teams this season while the Demon Deacons went 5-4 SU (and 6-2-1 ATS) against bowl teams this season. This one has the makings of a blowout and we'll gladly lay the small points. Bet Wake Forest! |
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12-28-17 | Stanford v. TCU -3 | Top | 37-39 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
#246 ASA 10* PLAY ON TCU -3 over Stanford, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET – ALAMO BOWL - TCU gets to play in the state of Texas here so they will have the overwhelming crowd advantage in San Antonio. We love looking for teams with a big defensive edge in the bowl games and that’s what we get here. TCU was the 4th best rush defense in the nation holding teams to just 99 YPG on 2.9 YPC. They ranked 18th in total defense nationally and allowed opposing QB to complete just 52% of their passes this year. They held opposing offenses to 122 yards per game below their season averages. Those are fantastic season long numbers and we view them as even better than they might read as they put up those stats in the offensively stout Big 12 which has 4 of the top 19 offenses in the country. This makes a poor match up for Stanford who has a young QB KJ Costello who has played in only 10 games thus far in his college career. While he has been improving and looks to have a bright future, we highly doubt he can carry the load vs this top notch defense. He might have to as Stanford relies on their running game to free him up to pass and that might not happen here facing TCU’s run defense. The only two defenses the Cardinal faced in the Pac 12 that were semi comparable to TCU were Washington & Washington State who are both top 20 defenses. In those two games Stanford averaged only 300 YPG on offense. The Cardinal defense is normally the staple of their team but they are way down this season. They rank 70th or lower in total defense, rush defense, and passing defense. We expect TCU’s offense, with speed and weapons galore, to do very well in this game. The Frogs put up at least 30 points in half their games this season. We also like the fact that TCU was embarrassed by Oklahoma 41-17 in the Big 12 Championship game so they feel as though they have something to prove on both sides of the ball here. Lay this small number with the superior team in a home type venue. |
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas +3 | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show | |
#240 ASA 9* PLAY ON Texas (+) over Missouri, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET – TEXAS BOWL Missouri comes in hot winning their final 6 games of the season. However, we also feel that makes them a bit overrated coming into this game as keep in mind those 6 wins came against ZERO teams going to bowl games. Not one winning team in the bunch and the combined record of those 6 teams Mizzou topped to end the season was 23-48! In fact, the Tigers were 0-5 this year vs teams that made it to bowl games this season. Their offense has been humming late in the season vs a number of poor defensive units, however they lost their play caller as OC Heupel took the head job at UCF and will not be with the Tigers for this bowl game. This is definitely a situation where the hot team may not be so hot after taking a closer look. This game is being played in Houston which heavily favors the Texas Longhorns. Just a 160 mile trip for the Longhorn fans as they’ll have a huge edge when it comes to the crowd. Texas has plenty of motivation here as a win gives them a winning season and a loss drops them below .500. They are also coming off a disappointing finale, a game in which they led Texas Tech by 10 points in the fourth quarter and lost 27-23. Their head coach Tom Herman has been a fantastic underdog coming in at 15-1 ATS in that role dating back to when he was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State and then head coach at Houston before taking over the Texas program. The Horns have the much better overall defense in this match up and rank 7th nationally in rush defense. Also, while Mizzou didn’t beat a bowl team the entire season as we mentioned, Texas beat 3 (Iowa State, West Virginia, and Kansas State) and played to the wire with others including losing by 3 vs USC, 5 vs Oklahoma and in OT vs Oklahoma State. We like Texas to win this game outright so we’ll grab the points. |
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