11-18-20 |
Western Michigan v. Central Michigan +1.5 |
Top |
52-44 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Western Michigan Broncos, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #314
Central Michigan not only lost at home to the Broncos last season, they also lost their most recent home meeting with Western Michigan as well. Both defeats came by a double digit margin and now the Chippewas get revenge in an ideal situation. The Broncos are off a last second win that involved a crazy late rally against Toledo last week. That was a big revenge win for Western Michigan and it will be tough for the Broncos to come right back and play a strong game after what will likely go down as one of the most unlikely wins of this entire college football season. Western Michigan scored 13 points with less than a minute to go in the game last week! Central Michigan has been strong on defense as they have held their first two opponents to an average of 294.5 ypg. The Broncos had an easy time with Akron in week one but then allowed over 500 yards of offense to Toledo last week. That doesn't bode well for this week as they now take on a Chippewas team which is averaging 35 points per game this season. Last season after the Chips lost at Western Michigan they won 6 of 7 games to close out the regular season and they have begun this season with a 2-0 mark. As you can see, the Chippewas are surging and playing with confidence and they catch the Broncos off a very emotional win last week. Our computer math model indicates high probability for a home win and Central Michigan is now a home dog here. We'll take it!
|
11-17-20 |
Akron +27 v. Kent State |
|
35-69 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 55 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 8* Akron Zips (+) @ Kent State Golden Flashes, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #302
This is too many points for a rivalry game. Not only have these teams split the last ten meetings, Akron had won 4 straight games in this series prior to last season's loss in this match-up. While this is a tough match-up for the Zips in what is appearing to be a rough season for them, there is no doubt they are going to bring a strong effort against their biggest rival. Last week, Akron did look much better than they did in their first game as the Zips were a 27 point dog and yet didn't even give up 27 points in the game! This week they are again in that line range as the markets continue to over-adjust to some early blowouts in MAC action. Kent State is off a massive win last week but their first win this season came by just 4 points. Also, early this season the Zips have played the tougher schedule in comparison with the Golden Flashes. That is helping to lead to huge line value here in a rivalry game. The Zips defense has been respectable with allowing only 396.5 yards per game so far this season and will keep them in this game as well. Grab the big points with Akron in what is forecast to be a much closer game than expected for this big road dog in evening action Tuesday.
|
11-14-20 |
Hawaii v. San Diego State -10 |
Top |
10-34 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 56 m |
Show
|
#192 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON San Diego State Aztecs (-) over Hawaii Warriors, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - Situations don't get much better than this. The Aztecs just lost at home by a double digit margin even though they were a double digit favorite versus San Jose State! Undoubtedly, there will be extra focus from San Diego State this week at home after what happened right here last week. Not only that, after beating the Warriors 6 straight times both SU and ATS in MWC action, Hawaii has beaten the Aztecs each of the past two seasons including once as a huge underdog. So this is a double revenge spot for San Diego State and they are catching the Warriors at the perfect time to exact that revenge. Hawaii is off of a home win over New Mexico but they allowed 33 points to the Lobos and NM is not only one of the worst teams in the MAC but one of the worst in the nation for FBS programs! The Warriors now are on the road again - for the 3rd time in 4 weeks! - while the Aztecs are back home for a 2nd straight week. The scheduling edge and situational edge here both are huge factors. Additionally, Hawaii has allowed an average of 32 points per game their past two games and allowed 31.9 points per game last season. San Diego State allowed only 12.7 points per game last season and, before getting upset by the Spartans and allowing 28 points last week, the Aztecs allowed 7 points or less in EACH of their first two games. Huge defensive edge to the home team in this one including allowing just 233 yards per game this season while the Warriors are allowing 433 yards per game! The Aztecs also are outgaining Hawaii on the offensive side (452 to 429) and, per our computer math model, San Diego State pulls away as this one goes on. This one has all the right ingredients for a blowout home win and we're laying the points with San Diego State
|
11-14-20 |
Notre Dame v. Boston College +12 |
|
45-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 3 m |
Show
|
#148 ASA PLAY 8* ON Boston College Eagles (+) over Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - While it is true that the Fighting Irish have beaten the Eagles big in each of the last two meetings, it is also true that this is a very unique situation. Notre Dame is off an OT win over Clemson, the #1 team in the nation, and they have a big game against North Carolina on deck. Will the Irish be able to fully focus on a team they've beaten by an average margin of 31 points in the past 2 meetings? That is highly unlikely and, as a result, Boston College will take advantage and keep this game very close throughout as they seek a big upset win of their own. Another angle to like here is Eagles QB Jurkovec going against his former team. Though Boston College will find it a bit of a challenge to run against the ND defense, Jurkovec has a 15-4 ratio this season and will do some damage through the air here as the Fighting Irish get caught flat after the monumental win over the Tigers last week. Though the Eagles are off a non-covering win over Syracuse last week, they did go with a very conservative gameplan there and held the Orange to only 240 yards. On offense, Boston College certainly held back plenty in the playbook that they have been saving for this week's huge game at Chestnut Hill, MA. Also, the Clemson team that Notre Dame just beat last week was without star QB Lawrence plus a number of starters on defense. A big win for the Irish for sure but would have been unlikely had those guys played. Boston College recently faced the same Clemson team and lost by only 6 points. The point is that the Eagles can absolutely be competitive here with the Irish and the last 11 times that BC has been a home underdog they have only lost one time ATS! This one has potential for the home dog keeping it close all the way through and we're grabbing the points with Boston College
|
11-13-20 |
Iowa -3.5 v. Minnesota |
Top |
35-7 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 17 m |
Show
|
#127 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Iowa -3.5 over Minnesota, Friday at 7:00 PM ET Iowa picked up their first win of the season last Saturday but they are much better than a 1-2 team. They’ve actually outgained all 3 of their opponents and they are +1.1 YPP differential on the season which is very solid. They’ve led all 3 games in the 4th quarter as well. The Hawks finally put it all together last week in a dominating 49-7 win over Michigan State. The defense, which has played very well this season, held MSU to just 10 first downs and only 59 yards rushing (Iowa had 226 yards on the ground). That defense is getting 2 key players back this week including starting LB Campbell who will now split time at the position helping their depth. Minnesota’s defense played much better last week but we’re not falling for it. The first 2 games they were terrible allowing 94 points on more than 9.0 YPP. So why did they look so much better last week? They played an Illinois team that has had a number of key players out with Covid and their QB position is in disarray as they were down to their 4th string QB Taylor who only completed 6 passes the entire game. This defense still stinks and even with last week’s performance they are allowing 8.2 YPP which is the worst in college football. They have the same 1-2 record as Iowa but the Gophers YPP differential is -2.0 which is a full 3 yard difference PER PLAY when compared to Iowa’s YPP differential numbers which we discussed earlier. The Gophers leaned heavy on their running game last week with 325 yards vs a terrible Illinois defense but they won’t get that luxury this week facing a Hawkeye defense that is allowing just 2.6 YPC this season. On the flip side, Iowa ran the ball very well last week and should continue vs a Minnesota defense that allows 7.3 YPC. This should keep the Iowa offense very balanced in this game which is bad news for an already terrible Gopher defense. On the other side this will be the best defense that Minnesota has faced this season. They’ve faced 2 terrible stop units (Maryland & Illinois) and a Michigan defense that has proven to be not so good thus far. The defensive difference in this game is enormous so we’re siding with Iowa to win and cover on the road.
|
11-11-20 |
Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois +8 |
Top |
40-10 |
Loss |
-109 |
26 h 43 m |
Show
|
#116 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Northern Illinois Huskies (+) over Central Michigan Chippewas, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Central Michigan is off a tight win at home but they were helped by a pair of Ohio University turnovers. Also, the Bobcats simply aren't on the level with the Buffalo team that Northern Illinois had to face last week. In fact, heading into the season many had Buffalo pegged as the best team in the MAC this season. That said, even though the Huskies lost ugly on the scoreboard against the Bulls there are a couple of important factors to note. One is that it was a big-time revenge game for Buffalo. Another is that Northern Illinois was done in by turnovers in that game as too many fumbles were the difference in that one. In fact the Huskies actually outgained the Bulls and had 26 first downs compared to just 14 for Buffalo. Now Northern Illinois is in the 2nd of back to back home games and will certainly take better care of the ball in this one. Central Michigan is being over-valued as this line opened up at a 6 but has moved up past the -7 mark as of Tuesday evening. The Chippewas are getting too much respect here. Even if QB David Moore returned from his suspension for this one it would be his first live game action in a full year. If Central Michigan is again without Moore, most likely, it will be a redshirt freshman Daniel Richardson making his first ever road start at QB. This will be much tougher on Richardson in comparison with playing at home last week. The Huskies also have revenge on their minds here as they got blasted at Central Michigan last season. The last time the Chippewas visited Northern Illinois the Chips lost by a 24-16 margin. Per our computer math model this game has high probability that it will be a game decided by a single possession which means great value with the Huskies available in the +7.5 range for this one. This one has potential for a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with Northern Illinois
|
11-10-20 |
Kent State v. Bowling Green +21 |
|
62-24 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 8* Bowling Green Falcons (+) vs Kent State Golden Flashes, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #110
Kent State is off a win last week but it was a tight one even though it came against an Eastern Michigan team many project to be the worst team in the MAC West this season. Bowling Green, on the other hand, is off an ugly loss but they faced a team that many expect to be the best team in the MAC West this season. Also, the Falcons were playing right into the teeth of revenge when they faced the Rockets at Toledo last week. As for the Golden Flashes, they were at home last week but now they are on the road and there has been an overreaction by the markets based on last week's results. This line is up near a full 3 TDs now and, per our computer math model, that big of a number is simply not justifiable here. The last time these teams met at Bowling Green, Kent State won the game by just a single TD. Yes the Golden Flashes blasted the Falcons last season but the first downs were 34-20 in that game and a key difference was a 2-0 turnover differential. That is the only reason that game ended up with such a wild margin. Kent State allowed 473.5 yards per game last season which was one of the worst marks in the nation and their defense will give up plenty here on the road and that will make it very tough for the Golden Flashes to cover this inflated pointspread. Grab the points with Bowling Green in what is forecast to be a much closer game than expected for this big home dog in evening action Tuesday.
|
11-07-20 |
Oklahoma State -12 v. Kansas State |
Top |
20-18 |
Loss |
-109 |
27 h 42 m |
Show
|
#375 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -12 over Kansas State, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - One of the most misleading finals on the board last Saturday was OSU’s loss to Texas. In that 41-34 OT loss, OSU was +15 first downs, outgained the Longhorns 530 to 287 but had 4 turnovers (Texas had 0) which led to directly to half of UT’s points. In the first half alone, Texas scored 20 points and 13 of those came on 17 total yards of offense (a 15-yard TD drive, a 5-yard drive that ended in a FG, and a -3 yard drive that ended in a FG). Texas also scored on a 100-yard kickoff return in the 2nd half. The Horns came into the game averaging 490 YPG on offense so the OSU defense, which is really good this year, held them 200 yards below their average. The Cowboys rank 14th nationally in total defense and they’ve held every opponent this year below their season average in YPG. The only defense in the Big 12 that is ranked ahead of them (slightly) is West Virginia and the Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 points and 225 total yards in their 37-10 win last Saturday. KSU will have all sorts of problems with this Oklahoma State defense as well. The Cats lost starting QB Thompson for the season a few weeks ago. His replacement Will Howard is a freshman with very little experience. Howard has now started 3 games and if you subtract KSU’s game vs Kansas who stinks, they have scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s with him under center. The Wildcats 4-2 record doesn’t look bad but the fact is they are getting outgained by almost 100 YPG and they’ve been outgained by every team they’ve faced this year with the exception of Kansas. That includes Arkansas State who upset KSU 35-31. The Cats do have a signature win over Oklahoma this year which might be keeping them overvalued but they were beaten badly in the stat sheet in that game as well with the exception of turnovers (Oklahoma had 4 / KSU had 0). They also trailed by 21 in that game but had senior QB Thompson in the line up to help with the comeback. The Cowboys offense has averaged 35 PPG over their last 3 games and they received a big boost when starting QB Sanders returned two weeks ago vs Iowa State. He has thrown for over 600 yards and 5 TD’s in his 2 games since returning. He and the OSU offense should have a field day vs a Kansas State defense that is allowing 437 YPG ranking them 78th in total defense out of 113. Last week they allowed WVU to roll up almost 500 yards and tally 37 points. We don’t think Kansas State will be able to keep up here. The Cowboys have rebounded well off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record off their last 8 defeats and they want to rebound from last week’s disappointing loss as they head into a bye week. Lay it as this has the makings of an easy win for Oklahoma State.
|
11-07-20 |
Michigan -3 v. Indiana |
|
21-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
39 h 37 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 8* Michigan -3 over Indiana, 12:00 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for Michigan. They are coming off a home loss vs Michigan State while IU sits on top of the Big Ten East with a 2-0 record, tied with OSU. The Hoosiers are very fortunate to be undefeated. They topped PSU in OT in week 1 despite getting outgained 488 to 211 and outrushed 250 to 41. Last week they beat a Rutgers team that just ended a 23 game conference losing streak a week prior. So in essence, IU won a game they shouldn’t have and beat Rutgers. Big deal. Michigan destroyed Minnesota in week 1 putting up 49 points. Last week it looked like they were a bit full of themselves entering their game vs arch rival MSU who was off a loss to Rutgers (due to 7 MSU turnovers). Sparty definitely looked like the more motivated team and pulled the upset. The Wolverines should be very motivated here off that performance. Their offense has been good putting up 481 vs Minnesota and 452 vs a solid MSU defense. On defense they’ve been solid against the run and struggled a bit vs the pass. IU can’t run the ball. They’ve averaged 1.6 YPC vs PSU and 2.6 YPC vs Rutgers. Michigan should shut down that portion of their offense making them one dimensional. Indiana QB Penix is solid but not the type of throwing quarterback you want to carry a team through the air. These 2 have faced off 32 times since 1980. Michigan has won 31 of those games and has been favored in all 32. This current line of Michigan -3 is the lowest spread ever in this series. Michigan was favored by 10 here last year with fans in the stands for IU (Mich won 39-14). Now they are a full TD lower just 1 year later with in an empty IU stadium? Looks like the Wolverines are undervalued coming off their loss while Indiana is overvalued with their 2-0 start. Lay the points with Michigan.
|
11-07-20 |
West Virginia +6.5 v. Texas |
|
13-17 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 10 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #377
A key factor during the season to find value on a weekly basis is to find games which fit the bill as a phony final where the scoreboard just does not match what truly took place on the field and the box score serves as the evidence! One of the most misleading finals on the board last Saturday was Texas getting an upset win over Oklahoma State. In that 41-34 OT win, Texas was -15 first downs, the Longhorns were outgained 530 to 287 but had a 4-0 turnover edge which led to directly to half of UT’s points. In the first half alone, Texas scored 20 points and 13 of those came on 17 total yards of offense (a 15-yard TD drive, a 5-yard drive that ended in a FG, and a -3 yard drive that ended in a FG). Texas also scored on a 100-yard kickoff return in the 2nd half. The Horns came into the game averaging 490 YPG on offense but it was quickly proven that a solid defense could give them problems (held under 300 yards in the OT win). Indeed, last week Texas faced an OSU defense that is really good this year and now the Longhorns face the only defense in the Big 12 that is ranked ahead of the Cowboys and that is West Virginia. The Mountaineers have been fantastic on that side of the ball this season and held Kansas State to just 10 points and 225 total yards in their 37-10 win last Saturday. Texas will have some problems with this West Virginia defense as well. The Mountaineers are allowing just 19.8 points and only 255.7 yards per game this season. Their defense rates a huge edge over that of the Longhorns. Texas allowed just 3 points in their season opener but that was against an out-classed UTEP team. Since then, UT has allowed 38.4 points per game. As you can see, that is almost exactly DOUBLE what the West Virginia defense is allowing this season. This is also a revenge game for the Mountaineers as they lost last season's match-up 42-31. In fact, this series has been dominated by the road team and West Virginia won at Texas 42-41 in 2018. It looks like another upset could be in the offing in this one! Mountaineers QB Doege has thrown for 300+ yards in 3 straight games and faces a Horns pass defense that has struggled in Big 12 games. Look for the road to improve to 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these teams as coach Herman's team falls to 3-10 ATS the last 13 times they have been a home favorite in Big 12 action. As you can see above, there is strong situational value in this spot and per our computer math model, the forecast is a close game with great potential for an outright upset for the road team in this one. Grab the points in this Saturday early afternoon Big 12 match-up.
|
11-05-20 |
Wyoming v. Colorado State +3.5 |
|
24-34 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 8* Colorado State Rams (+) vs Wyoming Cowboys, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET: Game #306
The Mountain West Conference season is just getting going and, as per usual, early on in the season there can be an over-reaction to just one game. We feel that is the case here as the Rams lost by 21 points at Fresno State last week and now come into this game as a home dog of more than a field goal. Our computer math model projections are forecasting that Colorado State will play much better at home this week. Wyoming is off a big win versus Hawaii but that was at home. The Cowboys are now back on the road and they lost their only road game this season. Wyoming did force OT in their lone away game, at Nevada, but actually trailed that game by 15 points entering the 4th quarter. The Rams best receiver, Dante Wright, missed the season opener but has been upgraded to probable for this game and that will open up the passing game for Colorado State. The Rams will take advantage of a Wyoming defense that did allow nearly 500 yards at Nevada in their season opener. Cowboys offense is a "run first" team and the Rams allowed just 84 rushing yards on 43 carries last week. In other words, this one sets up very well for the host. Grab the points with Colorado State in what could be an underdog upset and what is forecast to be, at the very least, an ATS cover for the home dog in evening action Thursday.
|
10-31-20 |
Virginia Tech v. Louisville +3.5 |
|
42-35 |
Loss |
-109 |
26 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 8* Louisville Cardinals (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #122
Louisville did lose at home to Miami this season but the Hurricanes only loss this season was to Clemson so the 5-1 Canes are having quite a season. The point is that the Cardinals can be a tough team at home and they have proven that with their other two games seeing them prevail by a combined score of 83 to 37 which includes last week thrashing of Florida State. We like taking teams in back to back home games when they are off a dominating win and building confidence. This is a Louisville team on the rise under coach Scott Satterfield who is now in his 2nd season here. Satterfield went 40-11 in his last 4 seasons with Appalachian State before coming to Louisville. Though the Cards are a tough 2-4 this season they easily covered at Notre Dame when they lost by just 5 as a 15.5 dog and also lost by just 3 in a tough road game at Pittsburgh. Considering those tight losses and the fact the Cardinals are off a big confidence-boosting win you can see why we like having them as a home dog in this spot. Louisville gained 569 yards of offense last week and only had to punt twice and now they host a Hokies team that is 0-3 ATS in road games this season! This is a back to back road situation for Virginia Tech for the 2nd time this season. How did the first one go? In the 2nd game of the back to back the Hokies allowed 56 points in a loss at North Carolina! Per our computer math model, Virginia Tech is going to drop to 4-12 ATS the last 16 times they have been a road favorite. This is a great spot for the home dog so we're grabbing the points in this Saturday afternoon ACC match-up.
|
10-31-20 |
Ole Miss -17.5 v. Vanderbilt |
Top |
54-21 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 60 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss Rebels (-) over Vanderbilt, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #185
This line may seem surprising to some considering that the Rebels record of 1-4 certainly doesn't seem worthy of this large of a point spread on the road. However, the key here is just how truly bad this Vanderbilt team is right now on both sides of the ball. The Commodores simply will not be able to keep up with a high-powered Ole Miss offense. The Rebels 34.8 points per game average is more than the TOTAL points that Vandy has scored all season! Indeed, Vanderbilt has totaled only 26 points in their 3 games. Though losing to A & M by just a 5 point margin in their first game is, on the surface, impressive, turnovers played a role in that game and helped keep Vandy in it. In their next two games the Vandy problems were not masked by turnover differential and they got blown out by a combined score of 82-14 in those two games. The Commonders defense allows 7.25 yards per play and their offense averages only 3.95 yards per play. This ranks Vandy among the worst teams in the nation on both sides of the ball. Ole Miss comes into this game angry about their 1-4 record on the season and also about feeling a bit "cheated" by a key officiating blunder in last week's loss to Auburn. With a bye week on deck, and a ton of penned up frustration to let loose, the Rebels are ready to completely obliterate the next team they see. That said, this Commodores team is in for a long afternoon even though they are on their home field. The Rebels, given the situation, will simply not let up here, and this is an offense that is averaging 521 yards per game which is more than double what the Commodores average at 257 per game. Vanderbilt also has been heavily impacted by covid issues this season and will be playing for the first time in 3 weeks! The Commodores lost by 25 at Ole Miss last season and our computer math model is forecasting a similar point differential in this one even though this game is at Vanderbilt. Ensuring the proper focus here for Ole Miss is the fact they did lose their last visit to Vandy two years ago and they have been reminded of that heading into this game. Though they lost that one by a TD it was a fluke loss as the Rebels outgained Vanderbilt by nearly 200 yards in that one! Last season, by the way, the Rebels outgained the Commodores by 242 yards. The point being that the Commodores have proven time and time again that they can not stop this Ole Miss potent attack and their ground game is phenomenal this season with two of the top rushers in the nation! On the other side of the line, the Rebels defense has been a problem this season but facing one of the worst offenses in the nation will prove to be the perfect remedy. That said, we see no way in the world that the Commodores are going to be able to keep up with an Ole Miss offense that is highly motivated and averaged 42 points in its first 3 games this season and that included games against Florida, Kentucky, and Alabama. Lay the big points and look for a dominating road rout in this Saturday afternoon SEC match-up.
|
10-31-20 |
Michigan State +24.5 v. Michigan |
|
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
45 h 19 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 8* Michigan State +24.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 12 PM ET - This line is simply too high for this rivalry. Last year’s line was Michigan -13.5 at home WITH fans and now just one year later we are looking at the Wolverines nearly 2 TD’s higher in an empty stadium. Let’s not overreact to what happened last week which is why this line is so high. MSU lost at home to Rutgers, we get it. However, they outgained the Knights by nearly 100 yards but had SEVEN turnovers. MSU’s first 6 offensive possessions went like this – fumble, fumble, shut out on downs, TD, interception, and fumble. You simply have zero chance to win a game at any level if you turn the ball over on half of your offensive possessions which is exactly what the Spartans did. Defensively they were solid. The allowed barely over 2.0 YPC on the ground and they held Rutgers to less than 4.0 YPP. Michigan looked great last week (overvalued now?). They took on a Minnesota team that was returning most of their key players offensively but had to retool nearly their entire defense. The Gophs also announced just before game time they would be without 2 starting offensive lineman along with their top LB (COVID issues). Thus the new sports handicapping world we live in where PJ Fleck keeps that under wraps from everyone until right before the game starts (we had Minnesota). Let’s not forget Michigan has a brand new QB who made his first ever start, 4 new offensive lineman, and they lost their top 2 receivers from last year. Now they face an MSU defense that should be fairly solid this year and we don’t expect them to put up 40+ as they did last week vs a depleted Minnesota defense. We expect new head coach Mel Tucker to rally the troops this week after an embarrassing performance last Saturday. This is the 2nd highest spread EVER in this series and only TWICE in the last 27 games in this series has there been a winning margin of more than 24 points. The line value is definitely on MSU here and we’ll take the points.
|
10-31-20 |
Kansas State v. West Virginia -4.5 |
|
10-37 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 56 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (-) over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #118
Kansas State is off a big win over the Jayhawks. Of course Kansas is a bad football team but that is still a big game every year for the Wildcats as that is their long-time in-state rival. Off that big win, Kansas State is in trouble here as they face a Mountaineers team that comes in angry off a loss at Texas Tech. West Virginia outgained the Red Raiders by nearly 100 yards but were done in by a late fumble return for a touchdown! The Mountaineers are allowing only 262 yards per game this season and the Wildcats go from facing a bad Kansas team to now facing what has been one of the top defenses in the nation so far this season. The Mountaineers have covered each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and have 4 straight SU wins in the series as well. The Wildcats are playing their 6th game this season and so far have won the yardage battle in only 1 game this season! On the other hand, West Virginia is averaging 461 and allowing only 262 per game. The markets are a bit enamored with Kansas State here because their big win over the Jayhawks was their 4th straight cover. That is keeping this line lower than is should be and the marketplace has a short attention span and simply sees West Virginia as the team that lost to Texas Tech last week. That leads to value in a spot like this as our computer math model is forecasting a big win by a double digit margin for the home team in this one. Lay the points and look for a blowout home win in this Saturday early afternoon Big 12 match-up.
|
10-29-20 |
South Alabama +5.5 v. Georgia Southern |
|
17-24 |
Loss |
-109 |
46 h 53 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 8* ON South Alabama Jaguars (+) @ Georgia Southern Eagles, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #104
The Jaguars are the hotter team with back to back wins and covers and plus are now 4-1 ATS on the season. Also, South Alabama has played the tougher early season schedule in comparison with Georgia Southern. The Eagles, despite playing a weaker schedule, have not impressed. Georgia Southern is just 2-3 ATS this season. Their only big SU win was a blowout win over a very bad UMass team. The Eagles other 2 SU wins were by a combined 6 points even though Georgia Southern was favored by an average spread of 27 in those two games - against Campbell and UL-Monroe. Part of the reason for the line value here is because Georgia Southern has dominated this series with South Alabama and that is "baked into" this line which is making it higher than it should be. The Eagles are getting some shading for that as well as shading for the home field edge here. However, the Jaguars went 6-2 ATS last year as an underdog in SunBelt Conference action. Also, South Alabama beat UL-Monroe by 24 points last week and that is the same team that Georgia Southern only beat by a margin of 5 points. It looks like this is the year the Jags finally turn the tables on the Eagles and this one sets up well with underdog value. Grab the points with South Alabama in what could be an underdog upset and what is forecast to be, at the very least, an ATS cover for the road dog in evening action Thursday.
|
10-24-20 |
Michigan v. Minnesota +3.5 |
|
49-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
28 h 23 m |
Show
|
#386 ASA PLAY 7* ON Minnesota +3 over Michigan, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We think the line value is with the Gophers in this game. We have this game power rated to a pick-em. Michigan gets the 3 point bump because of their name value I guess. The Wolverines offense is a complete unknown coming into the season and will be a work in progress. Their new starting QB Milton has thrown 11 passes in his college career. He’ll be operating behind a brand new offensive line that lost 4 of 5 starters from last season. They also lost their top 2 WR’s Black and Collins. Minnesota, on the other hand, is one of the most experienced offenses in college football. They averaged 34 PPG last year and bring back nearly everyone including QB Morgan who led the Big 10 in passing YPG last season. He’ll be operating behind an offensive line that brings everyone back and throwing to one of the best WR in the country in Bateman. Both defenses have some question marks this season and while we expect Michigan to be solid on that side of the ball as they always are, let’s not forget this Minnesota defense finished 10th nationally in total defense last year. Again, they have to replace some key players on that side of the ball but so do the Wolverines. Entering the season we’d give Michigan an edge defensively but Minnesota a much larger edge on offense. Let’s also not forget that Minnesota was 11-2 last year and beat the 2nd place team from the Big 10 East (Penn State) along with Auburn in their bowl game. They should feel a bit disrespected being a home underdog in their season opener after their successful run last year. Speaking of home underdog, Minnesota has fallen into that role 36 times since 2007 and they are a money making 23-13 ATS in that spot. We like Minnesota here vs a Michigan team we feel is overrated coming into the season.
|
10-24-20 |
Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +10 |
Top |
45-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 53 m |
Show
|
#318 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Pittsburgh +10 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - In our opinion, Notre Dame is vastly overvalued at this point of the season due to their perfect 4-0 record. However, they haven’t beaten a single team that currently has a winning record and the combined record of the 4 teams they’ve played is 5-16. Last week they played host to Louisville, who in our power ratings is the best team the Irish have faced, and ND escaped with a 12-7 win. The Irish were held to just 4.9 YPP vs a Louisville team that ranks 32nd nationally in total defense (out of 77). The Notre Dame offense struggled with the Cards last week and now face, by far, the best defense they’ve seen this year as Pitt ranks 7th nationally in total defense. On top of that, ND relies heavily on their running game averaging 45 carries per game (12th most in the country) and Pitt’s defense ranks #1 in the nation in rush defense allowing only 61 YPG. The Panthers are much better than their 3-3 record. They’ve lost 3 straight games by a combined 14 points. Last week they played @ Miami and lost 31-19 but the yardage was close (Pitt outgained by 30 yards) and the defense played very well holding a potent Cane offense to just 331 total yards. Miami did score 31 points but 3 of their TD drives started on Pittsburgh’s half of the field due to turnovers and the Panthers getting shut out on downs. They might be without starting QB Pickett again this week (although he has not been ruled out) but his backup Yellen got his feet wet last week throwing for 277 yards vs Miami. We have Pitt rated about dead even with Louisville so this will be the best team the Irish have played (along with the Cards) AND their first road game of the season. These two programs have faced off 12 times since 2002 with the margin of victory being 8 or less in 10 of those games. Pitt will give Notre Dame all they can handle here and we grab the generous points siding with the home dog.
|
10-24-20 |
Baylor v. Texas -9.5 |
|
16-27 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 17 m |
Show
|
#346 ASA PLAY 8* ON Texas Longhorns -9.5 over Baylor Bears, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Kansas is 0-4 this season and has lost those 4 games by an average margin of defeat of 28 points. What does that have to do with this play? Well the only win Baylor has came against the Jayhawks in their first game of the season. Baylor's only other game was a loss at West Virginia. Though that was a tight loss (in double OT) for the Bears, they were fortunate they were even in the game. Baylor benefited from being +2 in turnovers in that game and they only had 256 yards of offense in that one! The Bears came into this season with a lot of issues and have been dealing with Covid complications too and that is why they have played only 2 games so far this year! Considering all the pandemic-related issues and the fact the Bears have a new coach this has already been a challenging season for Baylor and they are only two games into it. Things get much tougher this week as the Bears and Horns are rivals and UT is out for revenge after losing last year's game by a two TD margin despite the yardage being equal. Texas is the much better team in this year's match-up and they will roll at home. The Longhorns have a big edge here as they have played 4 games already so they have an edge of 2 extra games under their belts. Also, the situation is ideal as they were off last week but that followed back to back tight losses to TCU and Oklahoma. The Longhorns are chomping at the bit to get back on the field. While their defense has been an issue this season, the UT offense has been nearly unstoppable. The Horns are an efficient offense that plays fast and they are averaging 49.5 points per game this season. Even taking OT points out of the equation, the Longhorns are averaging 44.2 points per game this year. The Bear simply won't be able to keep up. Yes the Texas defense has been a weakness this season but they allowed just 18 points and 345 yards per game in their two home games. They will respond here at home and take advantage of a struggling Bears offense in this one. The Longhorns have had one two-game losing streak each of the last 3 seasons. The streak never reached 3 in any of the 3 seasons. The result was a 3-0 mark with an average margin of victory of 21 points. Per our computer math model, the Longhorns have a high probability of winning this game by a margin of 2 to 3 touchdowns. Lay the points and look for a home blowout in this Saturday afternoon Big 12 match-up.
|
10-23-20 |
UL-Lafayette v. UAB +2.5 |
|
24-20 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 2 m |
Show
|
#310 ASA PLAY 8* ON UAB Blazers (+) over Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns, Friday at 8 PM ET - Earlier this week UAB was as much as a 3 point favorite. Now the Blazers are a 3 point dog. This is a fantastic value especially when you consider that UAB is on a 21-0 SU run in home games! The Blazers are battle-tested already as they had to face Miami this season. As you would expect, UAB lost that game by double digits but they are 4-0 SU in their other games. In those 4 victories the Blazers are averaging 36.3 points per game. In their last 3 games, UAB has allowed an average of only 12.3 points per game. Also, though they struggled against Miami (as expected), the Blazers have allowed only 285 yards per game in their other 4 games. Their defense is playing well, their offense is playing with confidence with scoring 37 points or more in 3 of their 4 victories and now they are at home where they also have plenty of confidence due to their long-term success here! Louisiana Lafayette still seems to be overvalued from their surprising upset of Iowa State earlier this season. The Ragin' Cajuns are actually 0-3 ATS since that win as 2 of their victories since then have come by 3 or less points. Now UL-Lafayette is off a loss to Coastal Carolina as they enter this game. The Ragin' Cajuns defense just does not seem to be on the same level as last year. Ever since the upset of the Cyclones in Week 1, ULL has been gashed and is giving up an average of 427 yards per game. Per our computer math model, Louisiana Lafayette will struggle to stop the balanced offensive attack of UAB as RB Brown delivers a big game for the Blazers. Couple that with a strong game from the Alabama-Birmingham defense, this match-up is set to go very well for the host! This one has the makings of a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with UAB
|
10-22-20 |
Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -13 |
|
17-45 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 28 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 8* ON Appalachian State Mountaineers (-) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #306
Arkansas State is off a tight 7-point win last Thursday but allowed 52 points in that game. In fact, in each of their last two games against FBS level opponents, the Red Wolves have allowed 52 points each time. That is not going to cut it against a Mountaineers team that is allowing just 19.3 points per game so far this season. Although this is a big number on this game, Appalachian State is the class of the Sun Belt Conference and 8 of their 11 regular season wins last year came by a margin of 14 or more points. The Mountaineers also won their bowl game by 14 points. For the Red Wolves, 2 of their 3 losses in SBC action came by a margin of 14 or more points. Their two non-conference defeats were by an average margin of 31 points last season. Arkansas State has a solid offense but a sieve-like defense. These teams did not meet last season but they did meet the year before. Even though that game was at Arkansas State, the Mountaineers rolled to a 35-9 win. Our computer math model is calling for an equally impressive margin of victory in the rematch here in 2020. Appalachian State allowed 20 points per game last season and their respectable defense is on a similar trajectory already this season. Arkansas State, on the other hand, allowed 34.3 ppg last season and is looking even worse this season with allowing an average of 39.8 points per game even though that included a game against an FCS school too! This one gets ugly as the Mountaineers crush the Red Wolves. Lay the big points with Appalachian State in what should be a massive home blowout in evening action Thursday.
|
10-17-20 |
Boston College v. Virginia Tech -11.5 |
|
14-40 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 34 m |
Show
|
#112 ASA PLAY 8* ON Virginia Tech -11.5 over Boston College, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We love the rushing disparity in this game which is heavily in favor of Va Tech. The Hokies are 12th nationally in total offense and their running game has been fantastic averaging 299 YPG which is good for 3rd nationally behind only 2 run only option teams (Air Force & Army). BC, on the other hand, has had a long, proud tradition of being able to run the ball and that’s is now what is happening this year. Their biggest output on the ground this season was 87 yards vs Texas State and they currently rank 74th out of 76 teams running the ball for only 60 YPG. As good as their running game has been, we now expect their passing game to take off as well with starting QB Hooker back in the line up. He was out the first 3 games of the season and returned last week @ UNC. The Hokies are coming off their first loss of the season @ North Carolina. Down 35-10 at half, Hooker stepped in for Burmeister, who had been starting due to the Hooker injury, and he led them to 31 second half points scoring on 5 of their 6 possessions. Hooker will be starting here and we look for the offensive to be very good vs BC. VT is also starting to get healthy as they have dealt with numerous Covid quarantines over the first few games and they are still 2-1 despite that. In fact, in their opening 2 wins over NC State and Duke, the Hokies had 20+ players in quarantine that were unable to play and they still came out with W’s. BC is 3-1 but they have not played a road game since September 19th. They are off a huge home win last week as they beat Pitt 31-30 in OT when the Panther placekicker missed an extra point in overtime. Despite their 3-1 record, the Eagles are getting outgained on the season. A team that has a solid record but is getting outgained on a regular basis, plus has no running game is a team that we will most often look to fade. Tech’s offense is now at full strength and we saw a glimpse of what it can do last week in the 2nd half vs a very good North Carolina team. Va Tech was upset @ BC last year 35-28 and had 5 turnovers in that game. A little extra motivation for Saturday. We’re going to lay the points here.
|
10-17-20 |
Army -7.5 v. UTSA |
|
28-16 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 0 m |
Show
|
#151 ASA PLAY 8* ON Army Black Knights -7.5 over UTSA Roadrunners, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - Last year Army was a 17 point favorite over UTSA and now they are close to just a TD favorite in this year's match-up. This has a lot to do with the Black Knights coming off an unimpressive win over The Citadel last week while the Roadrunners are off an impressive effort at BYU. However, the reality is that all last week's results did was create incredible line value this week. The reason that Army struggled with The Citadel is because the Bulldogs are also an option team and so they are used to seeing it all the time and were able to slow down the Black Knights. Now enter a UTSA defense that rarely sees it plus is coming off a road trip to Utah. This is not a good situation for the Roadrunners and last season Army ran for 340 yards against UTSA. This season Army is averaging 310 rushing yards per game. On defense the Black Knights have been great against the run as they have allowed only 83 rushing yards per game. UTSA managed only 72 yards on the ground at BYU last week. It is tough to win when you lose the rushing stats by a huge margin and that is the projection here per our computer math model. Army dominates the ground game and the scoreboard. The Roadrunners might seem inviting as a home dog but they have actually only covered 3 of the last 9 times they have been in that role. Also, looking at common opponents this season, Army destroyed Middle Tennessee 42-0. That is the same Blue Raiders team that UTSA faced a few weeks ago and only beat 37-35. Against FBS teams, the Runners have allowed 32.8 points per game. Army, in their games against FBS opponents, have allowed just 10.3 points per game. This one has the makings of a road rout and we're laying the points with Army
|
10-17-20 |
Auburn v. South Carolina +3 |
|
22-30 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 42 m |
Show
|
#124 ASA PLAY 8* ON South Carolina +3 over Auburn, Saturday at 12 Noon ET - We were on Auburn last week and lost as they jumped out to a 17-0 lead but struggled defensively vs Arkansas from that point on. After the Tigers grabbed the 17-0 lead, their defense allowed the Razorbacks to score points on 5 of their final 6 possessions to keep it close in Auburn’s 30-28 win. It was a perfect spot to play on the Tigers coming off an embarrassing 6-point effort vs Georgia while Arkansas was coming off a huge win @ Miss State, breaking their 20 game SEC losing streak. We weren’t at all impressed with the way Auburn responded giving up 437 yards to an offense that came in averaging 277.5 yards per game and had not topped 280 yards in either of their first 2 games, including their win over Mississippi State. South Carolina, on the other hand, has impressed us. They opened the season facing ranked opponents on back to back weeks. They lost by 4 points @ home vs Tennessee in a game the Vols scored a defensive TD which turned out to be the difference in the game. Then @ Florida they lost their 2nd game of the season but played fairly well keeping the yardage near even vs a potent Florida offense. We though their defense played very well in that game, despite allowing 38 points, they held the Gators to just 348 total yards. That’s a Florida offense that is averaging 522 YPG in their other two contests this year vs Texas A&M and Ole Miss. The Gamecocks finally were able to take a step down in competition last week and they blasted Vandy 41-7 on the road. Now back at home getting points is a great spot for South Carolina in our opinion. Despite their 2-1 record Auburn is getting outgained by 92 YPG on the season. The Gamecocks, on the other hand, are outgaining their opponents by 58 YPG and remember they’ve faced 2 ranked opponents already this year. SC also has a very good rush defense allowing just 92 YPG and Auburn relies heavily on running the ball. Auburn has a number of key players questionable for this game as well and we simply like the spot for the home dog. Take the points.
|
10-16-20 |
BYU -4.5 v. Houston |
|
43-26 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 14 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 8* ON Brigham Young Cougars (-) over Houston Cougars, Friday at 9:30 PM ET: Game #109
Houston finally played a game after many cancellations and postponements early this season. Even though Houston impressed in that season opening victory, they played a Tulane team that has struggled badly on defense early this season. Now Houston has to face a BYU team that has absolutely been locked in on defense early this season. Brigham Young has allowed an average of only 11 points per game in their 4 games this season. On that note, this is another big edge for BYU in this match-up as they have played 4 games already this season and have had plenty of time to make adjustments on both sides of the ball. Keep in mind Houston has played just one game and they take a big step up in terms of level of competition this week as they face a ranked BYU team. Brigham Young is averaging 44 points per game and is going to test the Houston defense in a way that Tulane was unable to. BYU is led by QB Zach Wilson who has thrown for 1,241 yds with an 81% completion rate and a 8-1 TD-INT ratio. Wilson also has 6 rushing touchdowns too. Per our computer math model this game may be close early but BYU eventually wears down Houston and wins this game by a double digit margin. Lay the points with Brigham Young in what should be a road rout in late night action Friday.
|
10-15-20 |
Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3 |
|
52-59 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 8* ON Arkansas State Red Wolves (-) over Georgia State Panthers, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #106
This line opened up at a -5.5 in many books and there was even a -6 out there earlier this week. Now the line has dropped to a solid -3 as of Thursday morning and our computer math model forecasts a solid home win here and we won't hesitate to get involved. Georgia State has played only 2 games this season. With Arkansas State having 4 games under their belt the Red Wolves actually hold an edge even though they are on short rest here. In this pandemic-impacted season teams with more practices, more game time, etc. have an edge and that applies to the Red Wolves in this one. Not only that, Arkansas State had won 5 straight meetings before Georgia State won last year's game at home. That was the 2nd straight game in which the home team won by a double digit margin and that is the forecast here per our computer math modeling - Red Wolves by 10+ points! As a home favorite in SBC action, Arkansas State is on a 15-4 ATS run. The Red Wolves are averaging 343 passing yards per game and the Panthers run game (lost some key personnel from last season) won't be able to trade scores with them in this one as they just can't keep up. Lay the points with Arkansas State in what should be a home blowout in evening action Thursday.
|
10-14-20 |
Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette -7 |
Top |
30-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #170
Both teams are undefeated on the season but Louisiana has played the tougher schedule. While UL-Lafayette defeated Iowa State by a 17-point margin, Coastal Carolina played Kansas from the Big 12. The Cyclones are projected to be one of the better teams in the Big 12 this season (and went to a bowl last year and faced Notre Dame) while the Jayhawks are off a 3-9 season and have been struggling annually for many years. Additionally, the Ragin' Cajuns' other two games were against fellow Sun Belt foes while only 1 of Coastal Carolina's other two games were. The other one was against an FCS school! Again, big difference in strength of schedule between these two undefeated teams. Additionally, one could argue that Coastal Carolina has revenge here from last year's 48-7 beating at the hands of the Cajuns. However, Louisiana did lose the prior season's match-up when these teams met at Lafayette and a little home loss revenge is on order here. Coming into this season the Ragin' Cajuns were projected to be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt while Coastal Carolina was projected to be one of the worst. The Chanticleers offense has surprised early this season but this will be a tough test for them here and the Ragin' Cajuns do have the better defense. Louisiana has allowed 18 points or less in 2 of their 3 games and that is despite facing the tougher schedule. We are aware of UL-Lafayette having some injury issues and Covid-related issues but those are still not enough to justify the low number posted on this game. Per our computer math model, the Ragin' Cajuns win this one by at least a 2 TD margin. Lay the points with UL-Lafayette in what should be a home blowout in evening action
|
10-10-20 |
Marshall v. Western Kentucky +7.5 |
|
38-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 14 m |
Show
|
#358 ASA PLAY 8* ON Western Kentucky +7 over Marshall, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET At 11 AM Pacific Time on Sunday, one of the first sportsbooks in Vegas to put out numbers on this Saturday college football card hung a -2 on Marshall. The Thundering Herd were quickly bet up to a -6.5 within the first 24 hours at that sportsbook and now are up to a full -7 across the board as of Friday (a few are at +7.5). We like to look for spots like this when fading over-valued road favorites and won't hesitate to step in big on this one. The Hilltoppers have covered 6 straight match-ups with the Thundering Herd. Even though Marshall has won each of the last 3 meetings straight up, all 3 victories came by 7 or less points and this one will too per our computer math modeling. The Hilltoppers haven't forgotten last season's game in which they led 23-7 in the 3rd quarter but ended up losing the game when Marshall made a 51 yard field goal on the final play of the game! The Thundering Herd haven't played in 3 weeks and that was an outright upset of Appalachian State. We like fading teams off outright wins as dogs and plus Marshall has had a little too much time between games and will also be playing their first road game of this season. The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, are playing their 4th game in 5 weeks but had a bye two weeks ago. WKU also enters this game off their first win of the season but it was a non-covering win. Perfect spot to back the Toppers here as they also want to atone for losing their only home game so far this season in a disappointing performance as a host to Liberty. The Hilltoppers did return a lot of experience from last season's team and last week's win at Middle Tennessee is a confidence booster for this team. Western Kentucky coach Helton has covered 6 of the last 8 times he has been an underdog and five of those were outright upset wins! Marshall has failed to cover 22 of the last 32 times they have been a favorite. Considering the above factors, and the line movement to a full +7, we're happy to bet the revenge-minded dog in this one. This one has the makings of a home upset and we're grabbing the points with Western Kentucky
|
10-10-20 |
Pittsburgh -6 v. Boston College |
|
30-31 |
Loss |
-116 |
22 h 47 m |
Show
|
#311 ASA PLAY 8* ON Pittsburgh -6 over Boston College, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET Pitt should be in an angry mood here after losing at home to NC State as a 14 point favorite. Looking at the stat sheet, you’d have no idea how Pitt lost that game. The Panthers rolled up over 500 total yards and held the Wolfpack to 398. NC State scored a TD with just 23 seconds remaining in the game to pull the 30-29 upset. Pitt’s defense is outstanding. They rank #3 nationally in total defense allowing just 232 YPG. Their rush defense is a brick wall as they’ve allowed just 57 YPG on the ground through their first 4 games, good for 2nd nationally. Now they are facing a BC team that has been predominantly a running team over the last few years but this season they are only putting up 70 YPG on the ground which ranks them 71st out of 74 teams currently playing. In other words, the Eagles will most likely be one dimensional here with very little success on the ground. That’s never good for an offense. BC comes in with a 2-1 record but they are fortunate to be in that situation. They upset Duke in their first game thanks to the Blue Devils 5 turnovers. Duke has also gone on to lose every game this season (0-4 record) so that win might not be all that impressive in hindsight. BC then played host to Texas State and the Eagles barely squeaked out a 24-21 win as a 17 point favorite. TSU actually outgained the Eagles in that game and led 21-7 late in the 3rd quarter before BC scored the final 17 points including the game winning FG with just 3 seconds remaining. Last week BC was all in at home vs a very solid, and ranked, UNC team. The Eagles trailed the entire game yet scored with under 1:00 minute remaining to pull them within 2. A failed 2 point conversion gave them the loss. That game took a lot out of this team both physically and mentally and this week could be tough for BC. The Panthers are also 2-1 after last week’s loss but they are outgaining their opponents 419 to 232. BC, on the other hand, is getting outgained on the season 345 to 370. BC also upset Pitt on the road last year as a 9-point dog giving the Panthers even more motivation here. We like the better team, who should be very motivated, that is better on both sides of the ball in this game. Laying less than a TD is solid value here.
|
10-10-20 |
Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5 |
Top |
28-30 |
Loss |
-117 |
22 h 14 m |
Show
|
#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Auburn -13.5 over Arkansas, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET Well Arkansas finally did it. They broke their 20 game SEC losing streak last week by upsetting Mississippi State 21-14 as a 16.5 point underdog. A couple of quick points about that game. First of all, they caught MSU off a monumental upset @ LSU so no doubt the Bulldogs weren’t completely focused on the Razorbacks who last won an SEC game in 2017 and that win was by just 1 point! Secondly, Arkansas was very fortunate to win last week as they were dominated in the stat sheet. The Bulldogs were +7 first downs and outgained the Razors 400 to 275. The problem for MSU was their FOUR turnovers. The first one set the tone for the upset as Arky returned a pick 6 just a few minutes into the game to take a 7-0 lead. Not only did the Dogs cough it up 4 times, they were also shut out on downs twice deep inside Arkansas territory at the 13 & 7 yard line. The Dogs also lost their top RB Hill (1350 yards last year) in the first quarter to an injury. Needless to say, a lot of things had to fall into place for Arky to pick up their first win in conference play in nearly 3 years and that’s exactly what happened. Now they are on the road again this week facing an extra motivated Auburn team. That’s because after beating a very solid Kentucky team here in week 1 by a final of 29-13, they were dominated @ Georgia last week. They went into the game as a 7.5 point dog and felt they could pull the upset. Didn’t happen as the Dawgs pushed them around which we look at as a wake up call for the Tigers. After the game Auburn head coach Malzahn stated, “We really got whipped in all 3 phases. We got outcoached.” We’re pretty sure this Auburn team will be more than ready this week. You can also count on them trying to put as many points on the board as possible. We don’t think there will be any backing off with a lead here coming off a loss and the fact that Auburn’s new OC Morris was the head coach at Arkansas last year and got canned. He’ll be motivated as well. This situation looks very similar to the last few seasons when Auburn was coming off a tough loss and pasted Arkansas the following week. Last year the Tigers lost at Florida and then beat the Razorbacks 51-10 just one week later. In 2018, they were coming off a tight 1-point loss vs LSU and proceeded to pound Arkansas 34-3 the following Saturday. The Razors are happy to be 1-1 but their offense will have big problems here vs a top notch Auburn defense. Arkansas currently averages just 277 YPG which ranks 70th out of 74 current teams playing & 15.5 PPG which includes last week’s pick 6. If you take that away, the offense has scored just 24 points in 2 games this year. We love the value here as well. We have this game power rated at Auburn -17.5. We could argue it should be even higher. These teams both played UGA and Arkansas was +27.5 at home while Auburn was +7.5 on the road. Just based on that alone, with no home field factored in whatsoever, it tells us Auburn should be a 20 point favorite on a neutral field. The weather calls for some rain, however the winds shouldn’t be bad at 10-12 MPH. We like Auburn to roll up a big home win on Saturday and getting this under 2 TD’s is a steal.
|
10-03-20 |
Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State |
Top |
30-37 |
Loss |
-106 |
29 h 39 m |
Show
|
#123 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Oklahoma -7 over Iowa State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We are well aware that recent meetings between these teams have been close games. However, this line was in the double digit range and has dropped to a -7 and we feel we have exceptional line value here with Oklahoma primed for a blowout win. Last season's match-up between these teams was decided by a single point but the Sooners led that game 42-21 late and they won't make the same mistake this season. Yes, the Sooners are off an upset loss to Kansas State but OU had a 4-0 turnover deficit in the game. The Sooners actually had 28 first downs compared to only 10 for the Wildcats and yet they lost the game outright. This is helping to give us great line value this week with Oklahoma. The Sooners piled up 517 yards of offense in that game and now take on an Iowa State team that just allowed 499 yards at TCU last week. The Cyclones tight win over the Horned Frogs had a lot to do with a 2-1 turnover edge and the Frogs had 10 penalties compared to just 3 for Iowa State. The Cyclones also lost their season opener to UL Lafayette by 17 points. In that game they barely eclipsed the 300 yard mark in terms of total offense. The fact is that highly regarded Cyclones QB Brock Purdy hasn't been overly impressive so far this season as his completion percentage is down from the 2 prior seasons and he has thrown for an average of just 178 yards per game. Keep in mind last season Purdy threw for nearly 4,000 yards. The Cyclones simply won't be able to score enough here to keep up with an angry Sooners team that has a dangerous offensive attack and won't be able to be stopped in this one. Lay it! This will be a road rout for Oklahoma
|
10-03-20 |
Navy v. Air Force +7 |
|
7-40 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 34 m |
Show
|
#132 ASA PLAY 8* ON Air Force +7 over Navy, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Though it was only recently announced that the Mountain West Conference would have a season, it was already determined many weeks ago that Air Force would at least play the other service academies (Navy and Army) this season. In other words, the Falcons have already been preparing to face Navy for many weeks now. What have the Midshipmen been doing? They have been busy prepping for teams like BYU and Tulane as those were their first two opponents. Give the Midshipmen credit for rallying in the 2nd half for the win over the Green Wave two weeks ago. However, lets not forget that up until that point Navy was outscored 79-3 in their first 6 quarters of football this season. Tulane essentially gift-wrapped the 2nd half comeback for the Midshipmen and this Navy team is not nearly the team it was last season. Keep in mind, prior to last season's 11-2 record, Navy was 3-10 the previous season. We're not sold on the Midshipmen this season and we like Air Force getting a full TD here as a home dog. Home field has meant a lot in this rivalry match-up and the Falcons enter this game on a 8-game winning streak. Yes, Air Force has lost a lot of personnel from last season's team but this is not that unusual for a service academy football team. They are use to major turnover of the roster year after year. That said, coach Calhoun and his staff absolutely have this Falcons team ready to go for this season and they've been gearing up for Navy for many weeks now and they know this team very, very well. Air Force knows how to stop the option and, though there are a lot of new faces on the defensive side of the ball, it is all about execution and playing within the system to defend the Navy attack on offense. The Falcons defense will be ready here. On the other side of the ball, other than the QB spot, the Falcons return plenty of experienced personnel and this is a unit that was one of the best in the nation running the ball at 298.5 ypg last year. This line opened up with Air Force at nearly a 3 point favorite and has swung nearly 10 points as the Midshipmen are now a 7 point favorite in this one. This is because of all the roster news surrounding the Falcons including QB Hammond losing his cadet status. The result, in our opinion, is exceptional line value on the home dog Falcons in this one. They match up so well with Navy, they have dominated this series at home in recent years, and they also got a big emotional boost with the recent announcement that there would be a Mountain West season. Already fully prepping for Navy, now the Falcons also ride a wave of emotion as their season schedule just went from 2 games to 10 games and these guys can't wait to take the field against one of their service academy rivals. We expect another home win for the Falcons in this rivalry so of course we feel very comfortable here with grabbing the points here with Air Force!
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10-03-20 |
Missouri +13 v. Tennessee |
|
12-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 56 m |
Show
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#115 ASA PLAY 8* ON Missouri +13 over Tennessee, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Missouri opened up the season with a loss but it was to be expected as they played Alabama last week. The Tigers defense showed great improvement last season and even though Missouri has a new head coach (Drinkwitz) this season, they have the same defensive coordinator (Walters). Last year the Tigers allowed only 19.4 points per game and their pass defense (179.3 ypg) ranked among the best in the nation. We like double digit dogs that are solid defensively and Missouri certainly fits the bill in that regard. Also, the fact they had to begin their season with a very tough match-up against the Crimson Tide means the Tigers will be well-prepared to face anything the Volunteers throw at them here. Missouri catches Tennessee off a 4-point win over South Carolina. The Vols barely snuck by the Gamecocks thanks in part to a 2-0 edge in turnovers as the yardage and first downs in that game were very close to equal. That said, we feel this is far too many points for the Volunteers to be laying here and, in fact, Tennessee only has 3 ATS covers the last dozen times they have been a home favorite! These teams met last season in Game 11 and with each team sitting at 5-5 on the year. The Vols won that game and it made them bowl eligible as they went on to a 8-5 season (including 1 point win in bowl game versus Indiana). The Tigers home loss to the Volunteers cost them a winning season and there was no bowl for Missouri. Though they may not get full payback here in the form of an outright win, the Tigers will stay within single digits in this game per our computer math modeling. Look for a very tight game likely decided by a single score margin. Grab the points with Missouri
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09-26-20 |
Tennessee v. South Carolina +4 |
Top |
31-27 |
Push |
0 |
28 h 17 m |
Show
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#406 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON South Carolina +4 over Tennessee, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Tennessee comes into this game with a lot of high expectations placed on them coming into the season. The Volunteers, including their 1-point win in the Gator Bowl over Indiana, have won 6 straight games and are ranked 16th in the nation entering this contest. That 6-game winning streak started with a big home win over South Carolina last season. However, South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp entered that contest having beaten Tennessee 7 straight times and that sets up this home dog revenge situation perfectly for the Gamecocks. South Carolina is flying under the radar a bit early this season because they are known for solid, physical defensive play but Muschamp's teams also are known for struggling to put many points on the board. That should change this season. We like the fact that new offensive coordinator, Mike Bobo (former head coach at Colorado State) has former Rams QB Collin Hill to work with. He is a graduate transfer and won the starting job from Ryan Hilinski. Of course Hill knows Bobo's offense well and that will allow the Gamecocks revamped offense to hit the ground running with Bobo's play-calling and Hill's leadership as a veteran with experience in this offense. Hill's college career started in 2016 at Colorado State so he has a lot of experience under his belt! Last year's match-up between these teams saw the Gamecocks lead 21-17 at the half but they were on the road at Tennessee and playing with an anemic offense and watched the Volunteers outscore them 24-0 the rest of the way. This match-up will play out much differently. Of course the ranked (and hyped) Vols are attracting attention from the marketplace but they also have had issues leading up to this game because of covid-19 cases. This has resulted in Tennessee not being able to have consistently scheduled practices. Now they go on the road playing right into the teeth of revenge and there is a very positive atmosphere right now in South Carolina as the team seems rejuvenated with the change at offensive coordinator. The Gamecocks also have stability on the other side of the ball with Travaris Robinson continuing as the defensive coordinator - a role he was hired for in December 2015 - and he has plenty of experience working with Muschamp. Upset alert in this one! We like South Carolina plus the points here.
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09-26-20 |
Texas State +18 v. Boston College |
|
21-24 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 18 m |
Show
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#451 ASA 8* PLAY ON Texas State +18 over Boston College, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - Anytime we look at a large underdog in college football, we like to have a team that can score points. That way they are always in the game, even if they get down big the back door is open. That’s what we have here. Texas State can score points. They are playing their 4th game of the season here vs BC and this team is averaging 37 PPG on 431 YPG and 6.1 YPP. They have 2 very solid QB’s in McBride and Vitt who’ve both played key roles already this year. McBride has been out due to Covid issues but could be back here. If not, Vitt has thrown for over 600 yards and put up 86 points in his 2 starts this year. Texas State played a very good SMU team to open the season and gave them a scare almost pulling the upset before losing 31-24. This offense is definitely capable of hanging in this game. While TSU is playing their 4th game of the season, this will be BC’s 2nd game. They upset Duke last week 26-6 so coming off a huge ACC win we’d expect a bit of a ho-hum performance here from the Eagles. On top of that, this BC team has a big ACC game on deck as they host North Carolina next Saturday. The Eagles win last week over Duke was a bit deceiving. The Devils were their own worst enemy with a number of mistakes that left points off the board. Duke was picked off at the BC 19 yard line, fumbled at the BC 4 yard line, fumbled at their own 12 yard line, fumbled at the BC 14 yard line, threw a pick at the BC 33 yard line, AND missed a FG. As you can see, the 20-point win by Boston College was not as it may have looked. The Eagles lost their battering Ram RB Dillon to the NFL (1,685 YR last year) and had only 84 yards rushing on 2 YPC last week. That’s a red flag for a team that has been a physical, run the ball team, over the last few seasons. This is also a spot the Eagles are simply not used to and that is laying a lot of points. The last time they were laying 17 points or more was back in 2018 and that was vs FCS Holy Cross. Just a bad spot for BC and playing in front of zero fans at home. We’ll grab the points here.
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09-24-20 |
UAB v. South Alabama +7 |
|
42-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
26 h 36 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY 8* ON South Alabama Jaguars (+) over UAB Blazers, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #418
This line was as low as a -5 but now has risen to as high as a -7 as of Wednesday evening. We're going to take advantage of this line rising to the key number of 7 and fade a Blazers team that is dealing with a key injury here. Even though the injury is to his non-throwing shoulder, starting QB Johnston is expected to be out for this game. That means redshirt freshman Lucero would be getting his first ever start and it would be on the road. Keep in mind, South Alabama nearly upset Tulane two weeks ago and that was on the road. The Jaguars have been a double digit dog in each of their first two games this season and their first game saw them get the outright upset as a big home dog versus Southern Mississippi. That said, even though UAB is a quality football team and returned a lot of starters this season, the QB situation is a precarious one to say the least and the Jaguars have proven capable of being tough on opponents that are projected to be much better than them. Per our computer math model, some of the projections have the Jags getting the outright upset and the majority show them staying with less than a TD margin in this one. With that being the case, the home underdog is the way to go here. Grab the points with South Alabama in what could be a home upset in evening action Thursday.
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09-19-20 |
Wake Forest +1 v. NC State |
Top |
42-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
32 h 19 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Wake Forest +1 over NC State, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a great set up for Wake in our opinion. The Deacons were whipped last week vs Clemson losing 37-13 to what might just be the best team in the country. Now they take a huge step down in competition facing an NC State team that finished 1-7 in ACC play last season getting outscored by 159 points in the process (average ACC loss was by 20 points). While WF was getting a game under their best vs Clemson, the Wolfpack still have yet to play. On top of that, they’ve had a number of Covid outbreak interruptions which has limited their already shortened practice time. They were supposed to open their season 2 weeks ago vs Virginia Tech but that game had to be rescheduled September 26th. That’s not a great situation for a team that struggled last year and is trying to learn new systems on both offense and defense as both coordinators are new this year. The entire NC State coaching staff has pretty much been revamped over the last 2 year which disrupts continuity. Just 1 assistant remains on staff from the 2018 season. While NCSU’s coaching staff has had to go through massive changes, WF head coach Dave Clawson has turned this program from a doormat into a winning program. He took a perennial loser and has now led them to 4 straight winning season. Coaching edge is definitely with Wake in this game. NC State QB Leary returns after starting 6 games last year but we’re not so sure that’s a positive. He completed just 48% of his passes and was 0-6 in those starts losing by an average score of 41-16. When Leary faced off against Wake last year, he struggled to say the least completing just 17 of his 45 pass attempts with the Deacs winning 44-10. He now must face basically that same defense with Wake returning 9 starters on that side of the ball. The Demon Deacons have now won 3 straight in this series including 2 years ago here in Raleigh when they were heavy underdogs. The Pack was favored 3 times at home in ACC games last year and lost 2 of those games outright. Going back to the previous season NCSU has actually lost outright 3 of the last 4 times they’ve been a home ACC favorite. No fans in the stands here takes away any home field advantage NC State may have had. We think Wake is the better team, in the better situation, with no long travel (schools are 100 miles apart), and should be favored here. We’ll gladly take the points with the better team with a game already under their belt.
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09-12-20 |
Coastal Carolina +7 v. Kansas |
Top |
38-23 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 55 m |
Show
|
#403 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Coastal Carolina +7 over Kansas, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Coastal went into Kansas last year and upset the Jayhawks 12-7 as a TD underdog. While some may think KU will have extra motivation here after that loss, they are simply not good enough to be laying a full TD in this or really any game. Last year was no fluke. The Chanticleers played KU toe to toe and actually had more first downs, more total yardage, and nearly a 10 minute time of possession edge. They return 14 starters this year including many key players and we expect them to be better this season than they were last. Their record last year was just 5-7, however they lost 4 of those 7 games by 7 points or less so they could have easily had a better season. They ran the ball very well last year (35th nationally) and return 4 starters on the OLine along with top RB Marable who ran for 148 yards vs Kansas and over 1,000 on the season. We expect more of the same this year vs a Jayhawk defense that ranked 124th vs the run last year allowing 225 YPG. Kansas lost their QB, 3 starting offensive lineman, their 3 top defensive lineman and their best cover corner and 2 starting safeties. Their defense last year gave up at least 31 points in 8 of their 12 games and now with a number of new faces it’s tough to see a drastic improvement if any. The offense may take some time to gel as well as the QB’s vying for the starting job have attempted a grand total of 19 passes combined in their careers. Lastly, and something we see as a big but overlooked situation is the fact that CC was able to get in ALL 15 of their spring practices to get ready for this season while Kansas did not have a single practice in the spring. This is a KU team that has won just 6 of their last 59 games SU (vs FBS opponents) and now they're being asked to win this one by more than a TD. No thanks. We like Coastal Carolina here.
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09-12-20 |
Arkansas State +13 v. Kansas State |
|
35-31 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 56 m |
Show
|
#427 ASA 8* PLAY ON Arkansas State +13 over Kansas State, Saturday at 12 PM ET Arkansas State is off a loss at Memphis last week by 13 points but they were only outgained by 78 yards in that game. It was a bit of a deceiving final score and they are particularly dangerous on offense because they have the option of two solid quarterbacks in Bonner and Hatcher. Both saw some time under center last week and, though RB Murray did not play last week, their top 3 running backs in that game totaled 136 yards on 25 carries and were led by senior RB Jamal Jones. The QB's combined to throw for nearly 300 yards and though Bonner threw two picks in that game a repeat is unlikely. Bonner had 10 TDs against just 1 INT last season. The fact is the Red Wolves have a very talented and veteran group on offense and that is what makes them especially dangerous as a big dog. Arkansas State is a hard team to put away and their experience factor gives them a huge edge here as they return one of the more experienced teams in the nation while Kansas State ranks as one of the least experienced FBS programs this year. The Wildcats are the better team defensively when comparing these teams. However, on the other side of the ball, Kansas State lost nearly all of its starting offense. They return a solid QB in Skylar Thompson but nearly all the other starters from last season's offensive unit are gone and that includes the entire offensive line! New offensive lines generally take awhile to play their best together and that will surely be the case here especially with how disjointed the 2020 offseason was for these players. Adding to that factor is a big but potentially overlooked situation and that is the fact that Arkansas State was able to get in 11 of their spring practices to get ready for this season while Kansas State did not have a single practice in the spring. This is a Wildcats team that is just 6-5 their last 11 games and only 2 of those wins came by more than 7 points (and 1 of those victories came by just 10 points) and now they're being asked to win this one by more than 10 points. This is asking a lot when one considers the Red Wolves also have the game in hand edge too as a result of playing last week. We like Arkansas State here.
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09-05-20 |
Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3.5 |
Top |
0-42 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 33 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Army West Point Black Knights (-) over Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET: Game #242
This is a tough spot for Middle Tennessee. This will be the first time that coach Rick Stockstill's team has faced an option attack in 7 years. That was a bowl game loss to Navy by a margin of 18 points. Making the situation even more troublesome for the Blue Raiders here is that they were originally game planning for two other opponents before finally becoming aware in mid-August that their first game would be against the Black Knights. In other words, why worry about preparing for an option attack if you're not expecting to face one? But now just a few weeks before the season opener you find out your team is opening the season at West Point and facing the option attack of Army! This is unlikely to go well for Stockstill's team. Middle Tennessee allowed 459 yards per game last year and that ranked them 114th out of about 130 in the nation. Now that sub-par defense has to contend with an offensive attack they are not familiar with facing. On the other side of the ball, the Blue Raiders are solid offensively but some running back transfers and on offensive linemen opted out of the season. So Middle Tennessee has been impacted (scheduling and opt outs) significantly in more ways than one heading into this season. The Blue Raiders will be facing an Army defense that returns the majority of its starters and which allowed 23 points and only 178.9 passing yards per game last season the latter of which ranked the Black Knights 5th in the nation! One final note about Army's offense is that though they have a new QB this season it is a senior, Christian Anderson. He did play in 6 games last season and started 1 and ran for over 400 yards. Anderson is a perfect fit for the Black Knights option attack. Lay the points with Army as a small home favorite in early afternoon action Saturday.
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09-03-20 |
South Alabama v. Southern Miss -13 |
Top |
32-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 52 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-) over South Alabama Jaguars, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #236
This line was as high as a -15.5 but now has fallen to as low as a -13 as of Thursday morning. We're going to take advantage of this line falling below the key number of 14 and get involved with a Golden Eagles team that is primed for a blowout win here. Southern Miss finished last season poorly as they lost their 3 last games by a combined 50 points! That being said, the Eagles have been anxiously awaiting a chance to erase the bitter taste of last season's poor finish and finally it has arrived. South Alabama should prove to be the perfect "punching bag" here for Southern MIss to take out their frustrations relating to last year's poor ending. While it is true that the Jaguars return 15 starters from last year's team that may not be such a good thing as that Jags team won just 2 games last season! Look for the Golden Eagles to take advantage of a South Alabama pass defense that was a significant weakness last season. Also, the Eagles did lose 2 years ago as a home favorite against a Sun Belt opponent and they have been reminded of that heading into this game. In other words they won't make the same mistake twice and, per our computer math model, a win in the 3 TD range is expected in this one. Lay the big points with Southern Miss in what should be a home blowout in evening action Thursday.
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01-13-20 |
Clemson +6.5 v. LSU |
Top |
25-42 |
Loss |
-115 |
79 h 4 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Clemson (+) over LSU, Monday at 8 PM ET - After watching what happened during semi final weekend, we knew we’d get some value on Clemson in the Championship game. We just didn’t think it would be this much value. Clemson was favored by -2 with the line rising to -3 versus an Ohio State team that many felt was the best team in the country for the entire season, better than LSU. Now that same Clemson team is getting anywhere from 5 to 6 points versus LSU just a few weeks later? This is an absolute buy low (Clemson), sell high (LSU), spot for us. Most bettors are greatly affected by what they see most recently. They watched LSU roll over an Oklahoma team that in hindsight really had no right being in that game. They also watched Clemson get behind a great Ohio State team and battle their way back to a close win. So based on that LSU is going to crush Clemson right? A massive 80% of wagers have come in on LSU because of that recency bias. We love taking the contrarian viewpoint to go against the public here. Let’s first remember that Clemson’s opponent (Ohio State) was light years better than LSU’s opponent (Oklahoma). We liked the Sooners getting 2 TD’s in that game, however in hindsight they had a number of close games (5 Big 12 wins by 7 points or less) in a conference that simply turned out to be not very good. The Big12 won a grand total of ONE bowl game with 5 losses. A very impressive win for the Tigers but we’re pretty certain Clemson or Ohio State would have done the same thing if facing Oklahoma. We were impressed with Clemson’s resolve getting down 16-0 against the Buckeyes and rallying to win with a late TD drive. We’ve heard the narrative that OSU outplayed Clemson in the game and deserved to win. We disagree. While OSU did outgain the Tigers by 99 yards they also ran 23 more offensive snaps and still lost. On a yards per play basis Clemson outgained Ohio State 6.7 YPP to 6.0 YPP. As we stated a few weeks ago, the Clemson players and coaches are very familiar with this situation. This will be the 4th time in the last 5 years they’ve been in the National Championship game – winning 2 of those. This is eerily similar to last year’s National Championship when Alabama was a 6-point favorite and came in with an unbeatable offense averaging 48 PPG (same as LSU this year) and very few gave Clemson a chance. Of course the Tigers went on to roast the Crimson Tide 44-16 outgaining Bama 7.5 YPP to 6.0 YPP. LSU QB Joe Burrow is obviously outstanding. But let’s not forget Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is now 25-0 as a starter, has a National Championship under his belt, and is considered a generational talent that will almost positively be the #1 pick in the NFL draft when eligible. The underdog in the National Championship is now 6-0 ATS the last 6 years and 14-7 ATS the last 21 seasons. The oddsmakers sent out lines about a month ago on potential National Championship match ups and in this one they had Clemson as a 3-point favorite. Now they are getting nearly a full TD based almost solely on the results from their semi final games. Remember, the oddsmakers felt Clemson was 2 to 3 points better than OSU and they were correct with Clemson winning by 6. So if OSU would have won their game vs Clemson, based on the number versus the Tigers they would be between a 7 to 9 point dog against LSU. I’m sure you see our point that LSU is now overvalued. Are they a TD better than the two other teams in the country considered in the top 3? No way. We anticipate this game being very close. Getting points is a bonus and gives us the opportunity to win even if Clemson loses the game. We don’t think they will. We’ll call for Clemson to win their 3rd National Championship on 4 years.
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01-06-20 |
Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette -14 |
Top |
17-27 |
Loss |
-102 |
52 h 21 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Miami-Ohio Redhawks, Monday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #280
The Redhawks went 5-0 in games decided by 7 points or less this season. However, in games decided by 15 points or more Miami-Ohio went 2-4. The odds makers posted a big line on this game and we feel it is justified and like the fact that the Redhawks tend to end up on the wrong side of these blowouts. Miami-Ohio managed more than 27 points just 3 times in 13 games this season. Compare that to a Louisiana-Lafayette team that was held below 28 points just ONCE this entire season. The Redhawks simply won't be able to keep up with the high-powered offense of the Ragin Cajuns. Louisiana averaged 43.1 points per game in their 10 wins this season. You can see why we're expecting a blowout here. On the season the Ragin Cajuns averaged 501.3 yards per game. By way of comparison, Miami averaged only 305.9 yards per game on offense. Additionally, Louisiana allowed an average of only 19.9 points per game while the Redhawks allowed 28.2 points per game. The location of the Alabama Bowl in Mobile, AL of course also favors Louisiana. The Ragin Cajuns have some extra motivation after losing badly in last year's bowl game against Tulane as they fell to the Green Wave by a margin of 17 points. They're going to take advantage of mismatches this time around as they face a MAC team that won some tight games this season with "smoke and mirrors" as their full season stats reflect. Miami gets exposed in this game and we look for UL-Lafayette to roll big. Lay it! Bet the Ragin' Cajuns in evening action Monday.
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01-02-20 |
Boston College v. Cincinnati -7 |
Top |
6-38 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 40 m |
Show
|
#272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati (-) over Boston College, Thursday at 3 PM ET - We really like this situation for a solid Cincy team. The Bearcats have just 3 losses on the season with one coming vs Ohio State and they lost their final 2 games of the season both at Memphis on back to back weekends. Those are far from terrible losses as those 2 teams combined for a 25-1 regular season record. OSU is obviously one of the top few teams in the nation and Memphis, who had 1 loss on the season, gave a very good Penn State team all they could handle in their bowl game. Both of their final 2 losses @ Memphis were games that went to the wire and the yardage was almost dead even in both. One of those losses Cincinnati was forced to use freshman QB Bryant because starting QB Ridder was injured. Speaking of Ridder, his shoulder was not 100% down the stretch and the Bearcat passing game was not great because of that. However, with the extended time off our word is that Ridder is back to 100% which will make this offense much more dynamic. For comparison’s sake, if we throw out the OSU game in which Cincy was shutout, they averaged 37 PPG when Ridder was healthy. Over the final 4 games when his shoulder was not right, they put up only 21 PPG. We expect them to have a very good day offensively vs a BC defense that ranks 125th nationally in total defense allowing 481 YPG. The BC offense relies very heavily on the run. After starting QB Brown went out with a season ending injury in mid October, the Eagles have averaged only 131 YPG passing. They were successful running the ball this year (267 YPG) the problem is, RB Dillon was the main reason for that as he rushed for 1900 yards and 15 TD’s. He is not playing in this game as he prepares for the NFL draft which subtracts easily their top offensive weapon. BC is also in transition as head coach Adazzio has already been fired, offensive coordinator Bajakian has moved onto Northwestern, and WR coach Gunnell is coaching the team as they wait for Ohio State DC Hafley to take over after this game. Cincy is excited to be playing a Power 5 opponent, they have the MUCH better defense, and no turmoil with their coaches. Lay the TD here with Cincinnati.
|
12-31-19 |
Florida State +4.5 v. Arizona State |
Top |
14-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
24 h 31 m |
Show
|
#255 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Florida State (+) over Arizona State, Tuesday at 2 PM ET - ASU will be playing this game without their 2 top offensive weapons as RB Benjamin (1,100 yards rushing and 10 TD’s) and WR Aiyuk (1,200 yards receiving and 8 TD’s) are both sitting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Their backup RB’s have COMBINED for only 85 yards on the ground this season. For a team that ranks 89th in total offense and 94th in scoring offense, they can ill afford to lose their top 2 playmakers. Many may expect that FSU might be distracted with their coaching situation but we argue that ASU is the team that will be at a bigger disadvantage in that regard. FSU fired Willie Taggart but the interim coach Odell Haggins has been on the Seminole staff since 1994 and coached their final 3 regular season games this year. He also led them to a bowl win in 2017 in a similar situation. The players really like Haggins and he’ll be on new head coach Mike Norvell’s staff next year. ASU, on the other hand, will be playing this game without their offensive coordinator (who was fired at the end of the regular season) AND their defensive coordinator left 10 days ago to take the head coaching job at New Mexico. FSU will also be without their top RB Akers, however they are more experienced behind him with his back up Laborn with 300 yards rushing and 4 TD’s on the season. FSU QB Blackmon has thrown for nearly 5,000 career yards and 40 TD’s should find plenty of openings vs an ASU pass defense that ranks 114th in pass defense. Blackmon will also have his full complement of weapons, including top WR Terry who has 1,800 yards receiving and 16 TD’s over the last 2 seasons. Arizona State has been a money burner in the favorite role going 0-8 ATS their last 8 in that role. This year alone they are 0-6 ATS as a favorite losing half of those games outright. FSU is happy to be back in a bowl after missing the post-season last year for the first time since 1981. We expect them to play well here and we feel an upset brewing.
|
12-30-19 |
Illinois v. California -6 |
Top |
20-35 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 25 m |
Show
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#250 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON California (-) over Illinois, Monday at 4:00 PM ET - We obviously following Illinois very closely being in Big 10 country. While they step into this game with a 6-6 record, this is NOT a .500 type team. They were extremely fortunate to get wins in a number of games this year. They beat Wisconsin, but were drastically outgained and caught the Badgers coming off Iowa with OSU next. Even with that Wisconsin led basically the entire game and made a number of key mistakes in the final 6:00 minutes to lose that one. Versus Michigan State they trailed by 21 in the 4th quarter and had everything possible go their way in that 3 point win despite getting outgained by more than 100 yards. The Illini were rolled 29-10 in their season finale vs a Northwestern team that hadn’t won a conference game entering that contest. In conference play, this Illinois team was outgained by nearly 400 yards vs Nebraska, by nearly 300 vs a poor Northwestern offense, by 239 vs Minnesota, by 233 vs Michigan, and by more than 100 vs Wisconsin and Michigan State. You get the point. For the conference season the Illini averaged 290 YPG while giving up 440 YPG. In non-conference play they lost at home to Eastern Michigan, struggled to beat a terrible UConn team that finished the year 2-10, and topped Akron who might be the worst team in all of college football. While we feel Illinois is drastically overvalued, this Cal team is undervalued in our opinion. A glance at the full season offensive stats doesn’t tell the entire story. Sure the Bears struggled offensively, however, when QB Chase Garbers started and played the entire game (he was injured for about half the season) this California team was a perfect 6-0. With Garbers at QB, the Bears started the season 4-0. He was injured in the 5th game vs Arizona State with the score tied 7-7 and they went on to lose that game. They were 1-5 SU without him under center (including the ASU loss) and Garbers came back to start the final 2 games which were wins @ Stanford and @ UCLA putting up over 400 total yards in each of those games. They averaged 25 PPG with Garbers under center and 15 PPG when he was unable to play. This Cal defense is good enough to hold Illinois in check. As much heat as Cal’s offense received this year for being lethargic, they averaged more YPG than the Illinois offense did this year. The Illini struggle to move the ball through the air averaging just 177 YPG (110th nationally) and the will have problems getting their running game going vs a Cal defense that ranks 26th vs the rush. Cal’s defense played very well against some potent offenses this year holding Oregon to 17 points, Washington St to 20 points, UCLA to 18 points and Ole Miss to 20 points. We have advantages on offense and defense in this game and its being played in San Francisco which is only 14 miles from the Cal campus giving them the location edge as well. We have a feeling the Illinois, playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2014, might just be happy to have gotten to this point. Cal, on the other hand, is very focused on winning this one after losing in OT vs TCU in their bowl game last year. The Bears win and cover this one.
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12-28-19 |
Oklahoma +14 v. LSU |
Top |
28-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
24 h 50 m |
Show
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#241 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Oklahoma (+) over LSU, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - This Oklahoma team and their head coach Lincoln Riley understand what this College Football playoff appearance is all about. That’s because they were here last year in a very similar situation. The Sooners, the #4 seed a year ago, came in as 13.5 points underdogs vs Alabama who was the # 1 seed. OU lost that game by 11 points but picked up the cover. They did get down by 21 points at one point, however when an offense like OU’s is getting 2 TD’s, they are never out of it and they proved that last year. They put up nearly 7.0 YPP on one of the best defenses in the country last year in this game. Now they face a potent LSU offense, however the Tiger defense is not nearly the caliber of last year’s Alabama defense. We see a similar type game this year. The Sooner defense is underrated this year. Last year they entered this game allowing a ridiculous 454 YPG. This season they are giving up just 331 YPG, a full 120+ yards better than last year, and they’ve allowed an average of just 278 YPG over their final 4 games of the season. On the year the OU defense is allowing almost 100 YPG less than their opponents are averaging. While we don’t expect them to shut down a potent LSU offense, we also don’t think the Tigers will be able to move the ball at will as many believe. Offensively the Sooners have scored at least 30 points in all but one game this year and they’ve topped 40 in 8 of their 12 games this year. Sooner QB Jalen Hurts has tremendous experience playing in college football’s version of the Final 4 as this will be his 4th straight year playing in the college football playoff (played with Alabama the previous 3 seasons). LSU’s coaches and players have not played in playoff which we feel gives a bit of an edge to OU in the experience aspect. The Tigers are very good but we don’t think they should be a full 2 TD favorite in a game of this magnitude. They did beat UGA by 27 in the SEC Championship game, however vs the other top tier SEC teams LSU was not dominant beating Bama by 5, Auburn by 3, and Florida by 14 with the last 2 games mentioned coming at home. Oklahoma’s offense is definitely good enough to keep up in this game and we expect them stay within this lofty number.
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12-28-19 |
Iowa State +3.5 v. Notre Dame |
|
9-33 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 2 m |
Show
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#237 ASA PLAY 9* ON Iowa State (+) over Notre Dame, Saturday at 12 PM ET - ISU comes into this game with a 7-5 record but they are much better than that mark. Three of those losses came at the hands of Oklahoma, Baylor, and Iowa (all top 16 teams in the final college playoff rankings) by a combined 4 points. Their other 2 losses to Oklahoma State and KSU, the Cyclones were tied with both in the 4th quarter. Despite only finishing 2 games above .500, Iowa State was +100 YPG and +9 PPG on the season. This team was very close to having 9 or 10 wins this season. We expect ISU to be very motivated facing a national brand (Notre Dame) as well as they fact they enter this one off their worst performance of the season (a 10 point loss @ KSU). Notre Dame enters on a 5 game winning streak but the competition was pretty average down the stretch. Three of those wins came vs teams that finished at .500 or below and another was a 1-point home win over Va Tech with the Irish scoring a TD in the final seconds to win. Their lone impressive win down the stretch was vs Navy. The Notre Dame defensive stats vs the pass are impressive. However, we feel they’ll have trouble slowing down an Iowa State passing game that ranks 8th in the nation under QB Purdy. Notre Dame’s pass defense stats are a bit misleading as they have faced just ONE team ranked in the top 35 this season in pass offense. That was USC and the Trojans put up 430 total yards on the Irish. It was also USC QB’s Slovis first game back after an injury and he passed for 255 yards and 2 TD’s in that game (Notre Dame 30-27 win). On the other side of the ball, we feel Iowa State’s defense is underrated. They allowed just 362 YPG despite facing a plethora of potent offenses in the Big 12. Taking points in ISU games has been profitable this year as the dog has covered 8 of 11. Our power ratings have this closer to a pick-em game and we’re getting over a FG which is a lot considering many of ISU’s games vs top notch opponents have come down to the wire. The Cyclones lost their bowl game last year 28-26 vs Washington State and head coach Matt Campbell has them focused on getting a win this year. We’ll call this one close and take the points with Iowa State.
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12-26-19 |
Pittsburgh -11 v. Eastern Michigan |
Top |
34-30 |
Loss |
-109 |
61 h 36 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Panthers (-) over Eastern Michigan Eagles, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #225
This game is in Detroit and while some may think Pitt is not all that excited to be here, we would disagree. Our word is the Panthers are really focused on getting their first bowl win since 2013 and head coach Pat Narduzzi is emphasizing just that. There is a massive gap defensively in this game. Pitt ranks 11th in the nation in total defense allowing only 302 YPG on just 4.4 YPP. Meanwhile EMU ranks 92nd in total defense (428 YPG) and allows over 6.0 YPP. EMU’s offensive stats look impressive averaging 29 PPG until you did deeper. The fact is they’ve only faced TWO defenses currently ranked in the top 20 Buffalo & Kentucky, and they scored 14 and 17 points in those games. They did most of their damage vs a slate of bad defenses including 7 of their opponents who ranked 79th in total defense or lower. Here they will face the best defense they’ve seen this year. Offensively for Pitt, their struggles have been in the red zone. They are averaging nearly 380 YPG (only 25 YPG less than an EMU team that has played vs a terrible defensive schedule) but they are only averaging 20 PPG. They are only averaging 18 yards per point which speaks to their red zone struggles. We think that changes here as they face one of the worst defenses they’ve seen this season and one that is terrible stopping teams in the red zone. EMU has allowed their opponents to score 33 TD’s in their 45 red zone trips this year which is 7th worst in the nation. They also struggle to put pressure on the QB (100th in sacks per game) so Pitt QB Pickett should be able to get comfortable and have a big game. On the flip side, the Panther defense leads the nation in sacks averaging over 4 per game which will be a big problem for an Eagle offense that relies heavily on the pass. Oh and if Eastern Michigan thinks they can run on Pitt, the Panthers have allowed only 2.9 YPC on the year which is the 8th best mark in the country. The MAC is 2-1 SU & ATS this year in the bowls but historically they’ve been terrible. Entering this season the MAC has only won 16 of their last 62 bowl appearances outright with a spread record of 20-40-2 during that stretch. Pitt is the much better team here and they seem to be focused on the task at hand which should lead to a big win here.
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12-23-19 |
Marshall +17.5 v. Central Florida |
Top |
25-48 |
Loss |
-109 |
69 h 44 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marshall Thundering Herd (+) over Central Florida Knights, Monday at 2:30 PM ET: Game #211
This will almost absolutely be a situation of a team that wants to be here (Marshall) vs a team that had their sights set much higher this year (UCF). The Knights have played in back to back New Year’s Day bowl games facing Auburn & LSU and now they get stuck in the Gasparilla Bowl facing Marshall. Because of what they had done over the last few years, we felt UCF was overrated for much of the year and their spread record coincided with that thought as they were just 2-7 ATS their last 9 games of the season. Because of who they are, the oddsmakers had to set the lines a bit higher than they should have and UCF was unable to cover the inflated numbers. That’s what we have here. Should they be a huge favorite in a bowl game they probably don’t even want to be in? No. The Knights are definitely the superior team but Marshall is no slouch. Marshall returned a number of key players from a team that went 9-4 last year and had high expectations. They also have 30 kids on their roster from Florida so they will be extremely motivated to play well here in Tampa vs a top notch team. They started slow losing 3 of their first 5 games but the Herd closed the season winning 6 of their final 7. The Herd beat 5 of the 8 bowl teams they’ve faced this season. Their defense is solid allowing only 362 YPG and just 3.7 YPC on the ground. On offense Marshall will run the ball and try and control the clock keeping UCF’s fast paced offense on the sidelines. We think they can do just that vs a Knight defense that allowed over 170 yards rushing in 5 of their final 9 games. The Herd can throw it if need with mobile QB Isaiah Green who threw for 2,200 yards on the season. UCF relies heavily on the pass as they put it in the air 426 times this season which ranks them on the top 30. The weather could be a big factor in slowing down their aerial attack as 20 MPH winds are in the forecast. Marshall head coach Doc Holliday has been a fantastic bowl coach with a PERFECT 6-0 SU and ATS record. That includes an easy win here at the Gasparilla Bowl last year beating USF 38-20. Dating back to 1997, Marshall is an amazing 12-1 SU in bowl games. Will they win this one? Probably not but we expect them to battle and keep it within this huge pointspread.
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12-21-19 |
Florida International +1.5 v. Arkansas State |
Top |
26-34 |
Loss |
-109 |
24 h 57 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida International Panthers (+) over Arkansas State Red Wolves, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET: Game #213
We feel the wrong team is favored in this one. Our power rating have FIU as a 1-point favorite here and they are getting nearly a FG. Arkansas State comes in with a 7-5 record and one of the worst defenses in America. They rank 127th nationally (out of 130 teams) in total defense allowing 481 YPG and 122nd in rush defense allowing 224 YPG. Versus bowl teams this season ASU was just 1-4 SU and they were outgained by 177 YPG and outscored by 18 PPG in those games. Offensively they are a very pass heavy team ranking 14th nationally in passing yards, however this looks like a bad match up for them. FIU’s defense allows only 178 YPG through the air (6th nationally) and if they can slow down the Red Wolves through the air, they are not a great rushing team averaging only 3.6 YPC. FIU is much more balanced on offense and we anticipate them running very well on this porous Arkansas State defense. If they can control the ground game, they should win this game. FIU head coach Butch Davis (formerly the head coach at Miami FL & North Carolina) is a fantastic bowl coach. He has a 7-2 ATS record in bowl games and last year he led the Panthers to a 35-32 win over a very solid Toledo team as a 7-point dog. He did so without his starting QB James Morgan who was unable to play in that game and is excited to get his opportunity this year vs ASU. The Red Wolves head coach Blake Anderson is on the other end of the spectrum with just a 1-4 SU & ATS bowl record. We’ll take the better coach, better running game, and better defense as an underdog here.
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12-21-19 |
SMU -6.5 v. Florida Atlantic |
|
28-52 |
Loss |
-109 |
22 h 26 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* SMU Mustangs (+) over Florida Atlantic Owls, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #211
With this game being played at FAU Stadium and with the Owls having won 6 straight games and 10 of their last 11 it may seem surprising to see SMU favored in this game. Of course you know what that usually means. Lay the points here! The Mustangs are favored with good reason. For one thing Florida Atlantic is without their head coach as Kiffin is headed to Southern Miss to take over the reins here. That means defensive coordinator Spencer is the interim head coach for this game. Spencer would have had his hands full even if he was only the DC in this one. The Mustangs have averaged 43 points per game this season and have a very balanced attack with averaging 186 rushing yards per game and 309 passing yards per game on the season. The Owls were only a dog two times this season and they lost both of those games. The other game Florida Atlantic lost was as a 4-point favorite against Marshall. The point is that FAU struggled at times when stepping up in class in terms of the opposition. SMU played 4 games this season in which their line ranged from +4.5 to -4.5 and they won 3 of the 4 both SU and ATS. The Mustangs D did pile up 50 sacks this season. By comparison the Owls had only 34 sacks on the year. SMU has the coaching edge considering the Owls situation here. Also, the Mustangs played the tougher schedule and we give them the edge in the trenches (offensive line and defensive line) in this match-up. SMU went 4-0 SU and ATS in non-conference games this season. The Owls are 1-8 SU the last 9 times they have been an underdog. They have faced an American Athletic Conference opponents 3 times the last 3 seasons (including this year) and are 0-3 SU and ATS in those games. As we noted at the top of this write-up, there is a reason SMU is favored on the road in this one. Lay it! Bet the Mustangs in afternoon Boca Raton Bowl action Saturday.
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12-20-19 |
Buffalo -6.5 v. Charlotte |
Top |
31-9 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 22 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Buffalo Bulls (-) over Charlotte 49ers, Friday at 2 PM ET: Game #201
Windy conditions expected in Nassau for the Bahamas Bowl. As a result, the running game is going to be the key factor in determining the winner of this game as the wind will be a challenge for the passing attack. That being said, while both teams do run the ball well, the run defense of the Bulls definitely holds the edge over the run defense of the 49ers. Buffalo is running for 254.3 yards per game this season while Charlotte is running for 213.3 yards per game this season. While there is a difference there in favor of Buffalo, the run defense variance is where you really see an edge for the Bulls. The 49ers are allowing 190.8 yards per game on the ground this season while the Bulls are allowing only 95.3 rushing yards per game on the season! Buffalo has been to recent bowls, including last season, but has come up empty and certainly has extra motivation here as a result. For Charlotte, on the other hand, it could be a case of just being happy to be here. This the first ever bowl for the Niners. Even though the 49ers finished the season on a 5-game winning streak, 4 of the teams they beat finished the season with a losing record. Charlotte, earlier in the season, had a stretch where they faced 4 teams that are bowl teams and they lost all 4 games by a combined margin of 101 points! The Bulls finished the season winning 5 of their last 6 games and faced multiple bowl teams during this stretch. With the better defense and the better ground game, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting a Bulls win by double digits in this one. Lay the points with Buffalo in what should be a blowout in afternoon action
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12-07-19 |
Wisconsin v. Ohio State -15.5 |
|
21-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
26 h 1 m |
Show
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(FIRST HALF LINE) ASA PLAY ON 9* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) over Wisconsin Badgers, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #120 (FIRST HALF LINE)
NOTE - Play FIRST HALF LINE if you can but, of course, if you can not then play this on the full game line. - We’ve released 3 first half bets this season and won all 3 and expect another here. We look for OSU to come out and jump on Wisconsin in this game. They learned their lesson in their first match up when the Badgers tried to turn the game into a grinder with 17 rushing attempts in 26 first half plays. They were able to stick to that game plan because OSU struggled on offense early and had to punt on their first 3 possessions. Even with the Buckeyes not playing great offensively in the first half, they still led 10-0 at half which would cover this number. After their slow start the Buckeye offense figured out the Wisconsin defense ripping off 38 points in the final 37:00 minutes of game time. They scored points on 6 of their final 8 possessions including 5 TD’s. On their last possession they were moving the ball again but ended the game taking knee at Wisconsin’s 30-yard line and we have no doubt they would have scored again if time warranted. The Badgers only points in that game came on a TD on a 30-yard drive following a blocked punt. Now we do expect UW to have more success offensively in this game, we also believe OSU will get off to a quick lead in this game and never look back. No slow start here for the Bucks in perfect conditions @ Indy. Remember, their lone meeting was @ OSU in windy conditions. That would favor Wisconsin but ideal conditions favor OSU’s speed on offense for sure. The Buckeyes have jumped on teams early all season. Their lowest margin at half this season was +10 vs Wisconsin and we gave you some thoughts on why that happened. They have outscored their opponents 367 to 57 in the first half this year for an average margin of +26 points at the break. We like OSU in the game a bit but have our reservations about Wisconsin scoring some points in the 2nd half after the Bucks build up a solid lead and that always opens a back door cover possibility. We don’t have to worry about OSU taking their foot of the gas in the first half and cover 8.5 points seems probable. Ohio State on the first half line is our play.
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12-07-19 |
Baylor v. Oklahoma -8.5 |
|
23-30 |
Loss |
-115 |
18 h 12 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over Baylor Bears, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #110
Oklahoma traveled to Baylor just a few weeks ago and got down 28-3 in the game. The Sooners were down 31-10 at half and came out in the 2nd half and outscored the Bears 24-0 and rolled up over 300 yards of offense. The 34-31 come from behind win has prompted bettors to side with Baylor here (65% of the tickets on the Bears) as they expect another close game. Not us. The fact is OU dominated that game on the road. They outgained Baylor by 218 yards and had 16 more first downs. They also had a 41:00 to 19:00 minute time of possession edge. OU gifted Baylor 14 points in the first half with 2 turnovers that led to short TD drives of 9 and 27 yards for the Bears. The Baylor defense simply couldn’t stop or even remotely slow down the Sooner offense in the 2nd half. They won’t here either in perfect conditions on a neutral field in Dallas. The Oklahoma defense, on the other hand, is peaking right now. Starting with their 2nd half @ Baylor, the OU defense has allowed just 3 offensive TD’s in the last 10 quarters of football. They have outgained their last 3 opponents (Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma St) by a combined 640 yards! The Sooners have outgained EVERY opponent this year (+230 YPG) while Baylor has actually been outgained in 3 of their last 4 games (Kansas was only team they outgained in that stretch). Baylor had their shot at beating OU and blew it. That crushing loss and the way it went down has to linger into this game. From a confidence standpoint, the Bears literally couldn’t get the OU offense off the field in the 2nd half of that game and they have to be questioning whether they can here. On top of that, the Sooners played that game without arguably their top offensive threat in WR Lamb and he is back healthy for this game. We’re laying -9 points here on a neutral field which is LESS than Oklahoma was a favored AT Baylor just a few weeks ago.
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12-07-19 |
Miami-OH v. Central Michigan -6 |
Top |
26-21 |
Loss |
-116 |
17 h 11 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (-) over Miami (Ohio) RedHawks, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #106
The wear and tear of a season can take a toll on teams and the RedHawks will be playing for the 5th straight week here. The Chippewas, on the other hand, are the fresher team as they have had two late season bye weeks. This will be just the 3rd game for Central Michigan in the past 5 weeks as they had bye dates on the 9th and 23rd of November. Miami lost a few players to injury in the first half of last week's game against Ball State so then they rested players in the second half. The RedHawks were hoping to bounce back after almost losing outright to Akron as a 31-point favorite the prior week! We're not putting a lot of weight into either one of those late season games as Miami had already secured its position atop of the MAC East. However, what we are putting a lot of weight into is the fact that the RedHawks have an anemic offense. QB Brett Gabbert hardly played last week because he didn't need to but in the 6 preceding games he had thrown as many picks (6) as touchdowns (6) and he had been sacked an average of 2.2 times per game. He is a freshman and has completed just 54% of his passes this season. Conversely, Central Michigan QB Quinten Dormady is a senior completing 71% of his passes this season! In 4 of Dormady's last 6 games he has not been sacked. He has 13 TDs against just 5 INTs on the season. Dormady has thrown for at least 250 yards in all 5 of his games against MAC opponents this season! They have been a different team since he took over at QB. Dormady leads a Central Michigan offense that is one of the best in the MAC while Gabbert leads an offense that ranks not only among the worst in the MAC but among the worst in the nation! That will prove to be the difference in this match-up. The defenses are about equal but there is no comparison when looking at these two offenses and this game is being played where the NFL's Lions play. Ford Field is an indoor stadium and that means Dormady will be able to air it out all game long in this one. The RedHawks have been held to 27 points or less in 9 of their 12 games this season. The Chippewas have scored 38 points or more in 6 of their past 7 games. Head coach Jim McElwain, formerly a head coach at SEC school Florida, has led a huge turnaround in his first year at Central Michigan. Since turning to former Tennessee (another SEC school) recruit Dormady at QB, the Chips offense has taken things to another level. The RedHawks will not be able to keep up here. Both teams have had some defensive struggles away from home this season but it is Miami-Ohio's inconsistency on offense that will be the difference maker here. The RedHawks pace (61.7 offensive plays per game) ranks near bottom of nation and their efficiency (5.0 yards per play on offense) ranks in bottom twenty of the nation. That plodding and methodical style is not going to get the job done with the way McElwain's offense is firing on all cylinders right now. The Chippewas defense has it numbers skewed by the fact they had two rough performances in the MAC and lost an ugly game at Wisconsin in non-conference action this season. In their other 9 games this season Central Michigan has allowed 19 points per game. Taking a look at Miami lets remove their match-up with Ohio State and their two worst performances in the MAC from the equation and they have allowed 21 points per game in their other 9 games. As you can see, truly the defenses do rate about equal here but there is no comparison in terms of the offensive production and being able to lay less than a TD here is a bargain with high-flying Central Michigan as they have hit their stride at the right time of year and also are the fresher team here thanks to the more recent bye weeks. Lay the points with the Chippewas in very early Conference Championship action Saturday.
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11-30-19 |
North Carolina -10.5 v. NC State |
Top |
41-10 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 44 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) over NC State Wolfpack, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #359
NC State won last year's game in overtime and there was a huge fight in the end zone after the game. Suffice to say both teams will be highly motivated in this year's rematch but that is bad news for the Wolfpack because the Tar Heels are certainly the vastly superior team. NC State was down 21 to 3 to Georgia Tech (UNC beat GT 38-22 by the way) at the half last week and that shows you have far this team has fallen as the Yellow Jackets have been enduring a rebuilding season and yet still went on to defeat the Wolfpack last week. Now NC State faces a fierce rival seeking revenge and also seeking the necessary 6th win for bowl eligibility. Even though the Tar Heels are away from home for this one, the road team has covered 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams. North Carolina has a huge edge at QB in this match-up as Sam Howell as thrown for 32 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions. NC State QB Devin Leary has just 7 touchdowns and has thrown 3 picks. In his last 5 games Howell had one tough game at home against Duke but in the other 4 games he totaled 15 touchdowns against just 1 pick and this includes an 8-1 ratio in road games. Leary, on the other hand, is trending the other direction with his 3 picks (against 4 TDs) all coming in his last 4 games. NC State has lost 5 straight games and the average margin of defeat in those is 23.2 points per game. The Wolfpack have averaged scoring only 17 points per game in their past 7 games. That is bad news here for NC State as they simply won't be able to keep up in this game. North Carolina has scored an average of 34 points per game their past 6 games (not including OT points in the 6-OT battle with Virginia Tech). While the Tar Heels and Wolfpack rate about equal on the defensive side of the ball, North Carolina's does hold a big edge on offense. The Tar Heels have amassed over 5,000 yards of offense this season and their 6.2 yards per play ranks them #3 in the ACC while NC State ranks 11th in the ACC averaging just 5.2 yards per play on offense. In terms of technical support here the Wolfpack certainly have not been performing well in the underdog role. NC State is 0-6 ATS the last six times they have been an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points including 0-3 ATS this season. In their last 5 ACC games the Tar Heels have averaged 325.2 passing yards per game. In their last 4 ACC games the Wolfpack have averaged just 196.3 passing yards per game. Per our computer math model, North Carolina piles up the yardage here and sends NC State to their 6th straight loss (both SU and ATS) as road team dominance in this series continues and the Tar Heels get revenge for last season's OT loss (and game-ending fight) that ruined the night at Chapel Hill! UNC hasn't forgotten that one! Lay the points with the Tar Heels as a road favorite in evening action Saturday.
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11-30-19 |
Ohio State -8 v. Michigan |
|
56-27 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 8 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) over Michigan Wolverines, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #367
We feel OSU is absolutely the value side here. Just two weeks ago the initial line on this game was OSU -14. Now laying 10 or less we are siding with Ohio State. Last week’s 28-17 win over Penn State was quite deceiving. The Buckeyes dominate the game. They were up 14-0 at half and should have been up 21-0 if not for a fumble by QB Fields just before he crossed the goal line. They held a 245 to just 64 yardage edge at the break. A quick score to open the 2nd half made it 21-0 (could have been 28-0) and it looked like another OSU rout vs a top notch opponent. PSU then took advantage of 2 short field drives after back to back OSU turnovers and got back in the game very quickly at 21-17. The Buckeyes dominated the stats (+190 yardage) and if not for that brief hiccup in the 3rd quarter (2 quick turnovers deep in their own territory) this was headed for a blowout. The Bucks have covered 8 of their 10 games this year, they are +39 PPG and +315 YPG on the year. Simply dominating. Michigan was impressive last week winning @ Indiana, however with the game tied at 14-14, the Hoosiers players started dropping including their QB Ramsey, who was injured during the game but kept playing, their top RB, starting LT, and top WR who missed the game. The Wolverines took advantage and pulled away for a big win. Let’s face it, the Buckeyes own this series. They have won 14 of the last 15 meetings and even last season when Michigan was the better team all season long and came into the game favored by 3.5 points, OSU still rolled to an easy 62-39 win. Before last week’s misleading 11 point win, Ohio State had won every conference game by at least 24 points. While they did clinch the Big Ten East last Saturday, the Bucks have higher aspirations and need to keep winning to seal a spot in college football’s version of the Final 4. They’ve been completely focused all season with nothing really resembling a letdown game. Getting potentially the top team in the country laying less than 10 is a gift here. We like Ohio State.
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11-29-19 |
Washington State +8 v. Washington |
Top |
13-31 |
Loss |
-109 |
28 h 53 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Washington Huskies, Friday at 4 PM ET: Game #339
The Huskies have good recent history in this rivalry but Washington enters this game off a loss at Colorado and has now lost 3 of 4 games. Washington State enters this game riding the momentum of a key comeback win at Oregon State where the Cougars rallied and scored the final 14 points of the game. Washington State QB Anthony Gordon has thrown for nearly 5,000 yards and has 45 touchdown passes this season. He led the huge win last week by throwing for 6 touchdowns and the Cougars got the final TD with just a couple ticks left on the clock. Normally a team can be expected to be flat after a game like that but rivalry games are most definitely an exception. Especially considering the Huskies recent dominance in this series, there is no way the Cougars will be flat here. Look for Gordon and company to ride the momentum of last week's win over the Beavers which also gave Washington State the all-important 6th win for bowl eligibility. With Gordon at the controls the Cougars have been tough to stop as the season has gone on. While the Huskies enter this game with losses in 3 of 4, Washington State has won 3 of its last 5 games and one of the losses was by just 2 points at Oregon! In fact, the Cougars 5 SU losses this season have featured 3 by just 4 points or less. Per our computer math model, Washington State has a great shot at the outright upset here and, if they do fall short, it is expected to be by just a single score. That means we have great value here with getting more than a TD in this one. Washington State, after a tight win by 7 points or less over a conference foe, has gone 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU). Washington, off an outright upset as a road fave of 7 or more points, has gone 3-8 ATS. The Huskies are dealing with a very dangerous dog in this year's match-up as Washington State is riding a wave of late-season momentum. Grab the points with the Cougars as a road dog in afternoon action Friday.
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11-29-19 |
Cincinnati v. Memphis -11.5 |
|
24-34 |
Loss |
-109 |
27 h 54 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Memphis Tigers (-) over Cincinnati Bearcats, Friday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #332
This is an interesting situation with Cincinnati already having clinched the AAC West with Memphis and Navy still battling for the AAC East crown. If Memphis wins this game, these two will have a rematch next Saturday right here on the same field (Liberty Bowl in Memphis). However, if Memphis loses this game and Navy beats Houston, then Cincinnati will host Navy next week for the AAC Title. You may look at this number and wonder how could Memphis be a double digit favorite vs a team that is undefeated in the AAC? Well there is a reason the oddsmakers set this number where it is and we agree with them. We expect Memphis to roll in this game. Cincy is a very shaky 7-0 SU on league play in our opinion. Despite not losing a game in the AAC, they’ve been outgained in 6 of their 7 conference match ups. The only team they outgained this year was UConn who just happens to be one of the worst teams in the nation. In conference play the Bearcats rank 11th (out of 12) in total offense averaging 358 YPG while giving up 404 YPG (-46 YPG). The last 2 weeks the Bearcats have been able to squeak by middle of the pack AAC teams USF and Temple winning by 3 & 2 points respectively. Cincinnati was outgained by a combined 260 yards in those 2 wins. In those 2 games they’ve really struggled to score points (20 & 15 points) and they’ve only put up 210 and 278 yards. That won’t cut it against this high powered Memphis attack averaging 43 PPG and 481 YPG in conference play. While Cincy has a negative YPG differential in conference play, the Tigers are plus nearly 100 YPG. They are also 3-0 SU & ATS at home in AAC play. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has had 3 conference road games this year, all vs lower tier teams (ECU, USF, and Houston) who have a combined 5-16 league record. The Bearcats needed late heroics to win 2 of those games scoring 10 points in the final 5:00 minutes to beat ECU 46-43 and kicking a FG as time expired to beat USF 20-17. Now they take a huge step up in competition facing a Memphis team that is 31-5 SU their last 36 home games with 26 of those wins coming by at least 10 points. We just don’t think Cincinnati will be able to keep up offensively in this game and we’re laying the points with Memphis.
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11-23-19 |
TCU +18 v. Oklahoma |
Top |
24-28 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 30 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* TCU Horned Frogs (+) over Oklahoma Sooners, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #137
The Sooners are one of the top teams in the nation and they have a fantastic offense. Certainly their offense rates the edge in this match-up but the Horned Frogs have proven they can put up plenty of points too as they are averaging 32 points per game on the season and the keys to the value with this play are many. TCU has the edge on defense in this match-up. Keep in mind that prior to the Sooners miracle comeback win against Baylor last week, they entered the 2nd half of that game having allowed an average of 12 points per quarter over their prior 10 quarters of football. That equates to an average of 48 points per game against the Jayhawks, Cyclones, and the 1st half of the Bears game. Give credit to the Sooners for their huge 2nd half comeback but the defensive edge in this match-up belongs to Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs had two ugly games in terms of points allowed this season but in the other 8 they have allowed an average of only 22.4 points per game. They are dogs of about 18 points in this match-up and they are getting strong play from QB Duggan as he led the way against Texas Tech last week. While the Horned Frogs hung on for a well deserved win last week, the Sooners were fortunate to storm all the way back for their comeback win at Baylor. Also, Oklahoma has their biggest rival, Oklahoma State, on deck and they have failed to cover 5 of the last 7 times when they have the Cowboys on deck. This is a definite sandwich spot for OU off the big win over the previously undefeated Bears and with rival Oklahoma State on deck. Also, the 52 points that OU put up on TCU last year was the most points ever scored in this series. The Horned Frogs defense is ready to make up for that performance here. The Sooners enter this game on a 1-5 ATS run as they continue to be over-valued by the betting markets. Games since mid-October for Oklahoma have included a 7-point loss to Kansas State and 3 wins over Texas, Baylor and Iowa State that have come by a total of 11 points. That means in those 4 Big 12 games OU has a point differential net of just +4 or 1 point per game yet here they are laying more than two touchdowns. We'll take it! 4 of the Horned Frogs 5 SU losses this season have been by a margin of 7 points or less. Per our computer math model, this one will be too! Grab the points with TCU as a big road dog for a Top Play in evening action Saturday.
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11-23-19 |
Houston v. Tulsa -3 |
|
24-14 |
Loss |
-105 |
26 h 34 m |
Show
|
#194 ASA PLAY ON Tulsa (-) over Houston, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Both teams enter this game with 3-7 records however Tulsa’s 3-7 feels much different than Houston’s 3-7. Tulsa comes off a bye and with some serious momentum after beating a very good UCF team 34-31 as a 15 point dog 2 weeks ago. That was a big win for this program that had come so close a number of times this year vs top tier AAC competition. They’ve played a brutally tough AAC slate facing the top 6 teams in the conference according to our power rankings. Their conference games this year have come against Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF, Tulane, SMU, and Navy. All 6 of those teams have records above .500 on the season the their combined conference record is 28-8. Tulsa took Memphis (5-1 in the AAC) to the wire before losing 42-41 on a FG as time expired. They led SMU (5-1 in the AAC) by 21 points in the 2nd half and lost in OT. They had Cincinnati (6-0 in conference play) on the ropes late down 17-13 late in the 4th quarter but turned the ball over on each of their final 2 possessions in the loss. You get the point. This team is much better than their record. They are also still giving full effort as proven by their win here over UCF 2 weeks ago when Tulsa already knew they could not make it to a bowl game. Now with two weeks of positive energy and solid practices leading into this home finale, we expect them to play very well. Houston is on the opposite end of the spectrum. They played a huge home game vs Memphis last week and jumped out to a 17-7 lead but got boat raced from that point on with the tigers winning 45-27. Houston had only 256 total yards (531 for Memphis) and their last TD came on a blocked punt return. After the game Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen admitted after the game his team ran out of gas around halftime. That’s not a good sign for a team that has to get back up and go on the road this week. On top of that, the loss eliminated Houston from bowl consideration and for a program that has been a to a bowl game for the last 6 seasons, we can see them being flat this weekend. On top of that, they just aren’t very good this year with a 1-5 conference record and their only win coming by just 7 points vs a terrible UConn team. While Tulsa was playing the top tier teams in the league tight for the most part, Houston was not. They lost to Memphis by 18, UCF by 15, and Cincinnati by 15. We realize Tulsa QB Zach Smith is questionable here but we are handicapping this game as if he were out. His backup Seth Boomer started for Tulsa last year and has thrown 200 career passes for 1400 yards so he has plenty of experience. Boomer also stepped in for Smith and played the entire 2nd half of the UCF game and led the Hurricane to a 34-31 win outscoring UCF 17-3 while he was in the game. If Smith ends up playing in this game, that’s simply a bonus. If not, we still love the spot for Tulsa. We look for a big win here.
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11-23-19 |
Texas +6 v. Baylor |
|
10-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 11 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON Texas Longhorns (+) over Baylor Bears, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #177
Texas has won each of the last 4 meetings between these Big 12 rivals and the Longhorns are catching Baylor at the perfect time to make it 5 in a row. The Bears are in a very difficult spot here. Baylor would be suffering unbeaten letdown regardless of how they lost last week but it is the manner in which they were defeated that makes this situation a particularly tough one for the Bears. Baylor had a huge lead of 31-10 at half against Oklahoma last week and then allowed the Sooners to come all the way back for a stunning 34-31 victory. That is a soul-crushing loss when you are an undefeated team. The Bears also managed to score ZERO points in the 2nd half against a Sooners defense that had been torched for at least 41 points in their two preceding games. The Bears clearly will still be licking their wounds here and they are running into a Longhorns defense that is playing much better since they got healthier again. Texas has held their last two opponents each under 25 points. That definitely holds some significance here as the Longhorns are about a 6 point dog in this match-up and, prior to last week's 21 point effort, the Texas offense had not been held below 27 points in any game this season! The Horns are averaging 36 points per game this season and, with the way their D has been playing, the Longhorns have a great shot at the outright upset in this one! While Texas is averaging 36 points a game the Bears have scored more than 33 points in a game just once in their last eight games! You can clearly see the difference in the production level of these two offenses. The road team has covered 8 of the last 11 meetings between these teams. Longhorns head coach Herman has cashed in 16 of the last 19 times his team has been a dog! 11 of the 16 wins have been outright upsets too and that is what we expect here but we'll gladly take the points being offered. Grab the points with Texas as a road dog in afternoon action Saturday.
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11-23-19 |
Michigan v. Indiana +10 |
|
39-14 |
Loss |
-115 |
21 h 12 m |
Show
|
#122 ASA PLAY ON Indiana (+) over Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a terrible spot for Michigan playing a much improved Indiana team. The Wolverines are off their state rivalry game vs Michigan State and they have their game of the year on deck hosting Ohio State next week. Indiana comes in with a solid 7-3 record with 2 of their losses coming down to the wire (@ PSU & @ MSU) and they only blowout loss coming at the hands of Ohio State which is no surprise. Last week they had Penn State in a very similar situation to Michigan this week and nearly pulled off the road upset. Penn State was coming off a huge game @ Minnesota with Ohio State next. IU lost the game by a TD but outgained the Nittany Lions by 100 yards & put up 462 total yards on a very good PSU defense. That game was on the road and now they get to play a similar spot at home. Michigan has played only one road game in the last month and that was @ Maryland who has been trending downward since mid September. The Wolverines are 2-2 SU on the road and this game will give them their biggest challenge since losing at Penn State in mid October. The Hoosiers should have some confidence facing Michigan at home as the last 3 years this game has been fairly tight with the Wolverines winning by 11, 10, and 7 points. This is IU’s home finale and they don’t have any pressure on them as they are already bowl eligible. We expect them to play very well and they’ve proven they can score with 27 or more points in every game but one (Ohio State) this season. We don’t see Michigan being able to pull away in this game. Also, do the Wolverines have much to play for here? Not really. Their chances to win the Big Ten East are pretty much out the window. If OSU beats PSU this weekend, the Buckeyes clinch the title. If PSU beats OSU, all the Nittany Lions have to do is beat Rutgers next week and they clinch the title. Michigan is on the outside looking in and they have much bigger fish to fry next week facing Ohio State. Take the points in what we think will be a very close game.
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11-23-19 |
Penn State v. Ohio State -18 |
|
17-28 |
Loss |
-113 |
18 h 49 m |
Show
|
FIRST HALF play. Of course if you do not have access to first half line than play the FULL 60 but this is a FIRST HALF line play - #212 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State FIRST HALF LINE (-) over Penn State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We have released 2 first half line plays this year and won both. One of those was this Ohio State team @ Nebraska where they led 38-0 at half. This is a game where we do like the Bucks, however laying 18.5 for the full game is a bit too risky. It’s possible they could be up 24+ and a late meaningless score by PSU could do us in. However, we’re confident they’ll get out to a fast start and look to bury the Nittany Lions early as they do with every team they play. In fact, in their Big Ten games this year, OSU has outscored their opponents 206 to 26 for an average halftime score of 29.5 to 3.7. That’s Big Ten only. Add in their non-conference games and the halftime margins go up. Penn State comes in overrated in our books. They have a 9-1 record but they have been outgained in half of their games this season (5). While OSU is simply destroying every Big Ten opponent (every conference win by at least 24 points), Penn State has had 4 conference wins by 7 points or less. Last week they held on to beat Indiana at home winning by just 7. Again, we like OSU to roll in this game but are more confident they’ll jump on this PSU team in the first half and go into the break with a substantial lead. Take Ohio State (-) in the first half.
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11-22-19 |
Colorado State v. Wyoming -6.5 |
|
7-17 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 59 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Wyoming Cowboys (-) over Colorado State Rams, Friday at 9:30 PM ET: Game #114
Wyoming fell just short at Utah State last week but they are in a good situation to bounce right back this week. The Cowboys are back home where they are 5-0 this season and this is their home finale. Wyoming is going to go all out here to finish this season with a perfect record at home. The line on this game as of Thursday afternoon is a 6.5 and we look for the Cowboys to win by at least a TD (our forecast is two TDs) in this one. The margin of victory for Wyoming in their 5 home wins this season is 17.6 points per win. Each of the Cowboys last 3 home wins have come by 13 points or more. Colorado State is facing the reality that a bowl game is highly unlikely. Yes the Rams can still become bowl eligible with two wins to close out the season but their remaining schedule is this road game at Wyoming and then a date with Boise State! The handwriting is on the wall for the Rams after they got blasted at home by Air Force last week. That being said, this is a difficult situation in which to try and rally the troops. While the Cowboys are allowing just 15.4 points per game at home this season, the Rams are allowing 38.6 points per game on the road. 5 of Colorado State's 6 losses this season have come by a double digit margin. The average margin of defeat for the Rams is 15 points per loss. Given all of the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for the Cowboys to win this one by a margin of two touchdowns. Colorado State led Air Force 14-10 at the half last week in a game that would have given them their 5th victory and a better chance at getting that key number of 6 wins for bowl eligibility. The fact the Rams fell apart in the 2nd half and got outscored by a margin of 28-7 (at home too!) is the type of tough loss that is nearly impossible to bounce back from. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS the last 7 times they have been a home favorite in a Mountain West match-up. We look for them to get the cash again in that role here! Lay the points with Wyoming as a home favorite in evening action Friday.
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11-16-19 |
Minnesota v. Iowa -3 |
|
19-23 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 52 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #336
As we’ve mentioned before in our write ups throughout the season, there is a reason the 6-3 Iowa Hawkeyes are favored over the 9-0 Minnesota Gophers. This line of -3 suggests that despite the records, Iowa and Minnesota are even teams on a neutral field. As we expected, the bettors have flocked to the undefeated dog here with nearly 70% of the wagers currently on Minnesota. Despite that the line has not dropped at all and we expect Iowa to get the win and cover at home here. We realize this is a rivalry game, however this is simply a terrible spot for Minnesota. After playing one of the easiest schedules in America leading up to last week, they finally had their big game. It was a home game vs PSU that the Gophs had been pointing to for at least a month. A game to prove their doubters wrong. They did pick up a 31-26 win but they were outgained by Penn State, had fewer first downs and benefitted from 3 crucial interceptions by Lion QB Clifford. Two of those interceptions led to 14 Gopher points and the third was thrown in the endzone late in the game as PSU was looking for the go ahead score. After a game that was hyped as Minnesota’s biggest home game in over a decade, we can’t see the Gophs playing that well again a week later on the road. This team has played only 2 Big Ten road games this year (@ Purdue & @ Rutgers) and the most recent was nearly a month ago. Now they face an angry Iowa team that lost 24-22 @ Wisconsin last week. The Hawkeyes are a very solid team and not far from having an outstanding record as their 3 losses (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn St) have come by a combined 14 points. The Hawkeye offense has struggled against top notch defenses, the teams listed above, but Minnesota’s stop unit is not in that category. PSU put up over 500 yards last week and we expect Iowa to have success offensively on Saturday. Minnesota had been running through poor defenses heading into last week, however PSU actually shut their rushing attack down quite well allowing only 120 yards on the ground. Minny QB Morgan saved them with a career game (more TD’s (3) than incompletions (2) and we don’t see that happening again on the road. Iowa’s rush defense will come in hungry after Wisconsin ran all over them last week. Prior to that the Iowa defense has allowed only 89 YPG on the ground and we look for them to really slow down Minnesota’s running game again this week. We also don’t expect Morgan to go off for another career type game. Let’s also remember this is a young Minnesota team consisting of mainly freshman and sophomores playing key roles so responding on the road after last week might be too much to ask. Iowa City has been a house of horrors for the Gophers as their last win here was way back in 1999. We’ll call for Iowa to win by more than a FG.
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11-16-19 |
Wyoming +5.5 v. Utah State |
Top |
21-26 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming Cowboys (+) over Utah State Aggies, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #353
Not only is Wyoming 6-3 SU and ATS on the season, the 3 SU losses the Cowboys have all came by 4 or less points. Out of 9 games this season no one has soundly beaten Wyoming and that includes the Broncos last week in a game played at Boise State. The Cowboys, with back-up QB Tyler Vander Waal, nearly pulled off the outright upset as a 2 TD+ dog at Boise last week. There has been a different "feel" in the Wyoming locker room this season and this team just gives it all they have week after week in terms of their effort no matter the situation. With that being said, we certainly look for the Cowboys to give the Aggies all they can handle this week. Utah State is off an upset win at Fresno State last week so this sets up perfectly. Prior to that win over the Bulldogs, the Aggies had lost 3 of 4 games and the 3 losses all came by big margins. Those 3 losses for Utah State featured an average margin of defeat of 29 points per game! Last season the Cowboys got the ATS cover for the 3rd straight time in this series with the Aggies but Wyoming did lose the game SU at home even though they held a 331 to 194 yardage edge! It was a fluke final score and the Cowboys now have a score to settle with Utah State in this season's rematch. Aggies QB Love is highly touted but he has more INTs than TDs this season and has struggled badly in his two career meetings with the Cowboys as well. Wyoming's pass defense has been a strength again this season and Love has 4 INT's and 0 TD's in his two career games against the Cowboys D. On the other side of the ball, Wyoming relies heavily on their ground game and should enjoy some success on the ground here. The Aggies front seven on defense suffered a major blow with the loss of linebacker David Woodward. Already without a senior defensive lineman (Fua Leilua) that was expected to be a key contributor this season, the loss of Woodward is huge. He had 134 tackles last season and already had 93 this season. The Cowboys take advantage and QB Vander Waal certainly had a respectable game against a tough 8-1 Boise State team last week. All it takes is a little success with the aerial attack (like he had last week) to open things up even more for the ground game! On that note, Utah State has allowed 275 rushing yards per game the past 3 weeks. Per our computer math model, the Aggies defense gets run on big in this game too and once again Love has another bad game against a Cowboys pass defense that has given him fits each of the past two years. More of the same here and we'll bet this game with the points but we don't expect to need them! Grab the points with Wyoming as a road dog in afternoon action Saturday.
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11-16-19 |
Texas +7 v. Iowa State |
|
21-23 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 8 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Texas Longhorns (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #377
We were on Texas last week and felt we should have covered that game but that’s the way things go sometimes in this gambling biz. KSU jumped out to a 14-0 lead on the Horns after their first 2 offensive possessions. The Cats had 138 yards and 14 points on their first 2 possessions and after that the Texas defense really played well allowing just 3 points (the only other TD for KSU was 98 yard kickoff return) and just 166 yards the remainder of the game. The Longhorn offense averaged 7.3 YPP on nearly 500 total yards vs a very solid KSU defense. The Horns outgained the Cats by 130 yards in the game. Again, the 98 yard kickoff return after Texas went up 10 in the 4th quarter was the killer. We felt the Texas defense, which hadn’t been playing well heading into last week, would be much better as a number of key players on that side of the ball returned to action after their bye the previous week. They did play very well and we expect that to continue. This team is a bit undervalued right now in our opinion. As for ISU, we’re not sure how they get up off the floor so to speak. They went to Oklahoma last week and rallied late from 21 points down in the 3rd quarter only to lose 42-41 when they failed on a 2-point conversion going for the win in the final seconds. That’s going to be very tough to rebound from. The physical and emotional energy used in that comeback only to fall short should have an affect here. The Cyclones have simply found a way to lose close games this year (4 losses each by 7 points or less) and we see this one playing out in a similar fashion. Their home field hasn’t been great this year as they’ve already lost outright here vs Iowa and Oklahoma State and barely beat Northern Iowa in OT. The Horns have owned this series as of late winning each of the last 3 seasons and ISU has NEVER been favored over Texas and now they are laying a full TD. We like Texas to keep this game close and we’ll grab the points.
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11-14-19 |
North Carolina +4.5 v. Pittsburgh |
|
27-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 40 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* North Carolina Tar Heels (+) over Pittsburgh Panthers, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #313
These teams have met six times as ACC foes and the Tar Heels have won all six of the games both straight-up and against the spread! Both teams are off a bye week and North Carolina can't wait to get back on the field after a tough 7-point loss to a quality Virginia team prior to their bye - Tar Heels outgained the Cavs by over 100 yards! The Panthers got a win before their bye week but it came against a Georgia Tech team having a rough season as this is a transition year for the 2-7 Yellow Jackets. Pittsburgh is averaging just 21 points per game this season which ranks them around the #110 spot in the nation. Though the Panthers defense is their strong suit, the Tar Heels defense had allowed 25 points or less in 6 of 8 games before having a tough time with the Cavaliers in their most recent game. The key to the match-up edge for UNC here is that they are averaging 446 yards per game on offense and are clearly the stronger team on that side of the ball. That yardage average would be even higher if the Heels did not have to face Clemson. Pittsburgh does not face Clemson this season and, overall, the Tar Heels have played the tougher schedule this season which also is not properly factored into this line (Pitt opened at -4) in our opinion. The Heels offense, since the loss to Clemson, has averaged 512 yards per game in 4 games. The Panthers have averaged just 350 yards per game on offense in their 4 games since October 1st. Per our computer math model, Pittsburgh won't be able to score enough to match the Tar Heels in this one as UNC covers for a 7th straight time in their ACC meetings. Grab the points with North Carolina as a road dog in evening action Thursday.
|
11-12-19 |
Western Michigan +1 v. Ohio |
|
37-34 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 46 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON Western Michigan Broncos (-) over Ohio University Bobcats, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET: Game #303
When Ohio University blasted the Broncos at Western Michigan last season that was their first victory over them since 2006. Suffice to say the Broncos haven't forgotten the 59-14 shellacking that they were handed by the Bobcats last season. That was a "phony final" too because it was driven by turnovers. Ohio U scored 45 first-half points in that game on only 260 yards of offense so that tells you the Bobcats did not dominate the game in the way you would think given the scoreboard result. Coming into this game the Broncos have all the momentum. Each team is alive in their respective divisions within the MAC but it is Western Michigan with the momentum. The Broncos are off back to back wins and have won 3 of their last 4 games. The Bobcats lost Wednesday and that was their 2nd loss in their past 4 games. Ohio U was at home against Miami-Ohio Wednesday and the SU loss was also an ATS loss which dropped the Bobcats to 0-5 ATS in home games this season! Ohio U has allowed 36.5 points per game in its past 4 home games. The Broncos are averaging 36 points per game on the season and, per our computer math model, Ohio U won't be able to keep up with the high-scoring Broncos in this one. Bet Western Michigan in what should be a road rout in early evening action Tuesday.
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11-09-19 |
Clemson -32 v. NC State |
|
55-10 |
Win
|
100 |
49 h 49 m |
Show
|
ASA FIRST HALF LINE PLAY ON 9* Clemson Tigers (FIRST HALF LINE) over NC State Wolfpack, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #117
If you do not have access to the First Half Line than play this one for the full game. The fact is that this one has the makings of an absolute blowout but rather than laying 32 points for the game, we’re confident Clemson will be ahead at halftime by more than 19 points so we’ll take the first half line here. The danger of laying 32 for the game would be the Tigers getting a big lead and letting up late allowing NC State the possibility of a back door cover. We won’t have that situation to worry about in the first half. Since their one scare this year @ North Carolina (a 21-20 Clemson win) the Tigers offense has scored 45, 45, 59, and 59 points. They have outgained their last 4 opponents by 1,530 yards or +382 yards per game. Looking at their season, Clemson often gets off to big half time leads as not one opponent this year has scored more than 7 points in the first half with the exception of UNC. The Tigers have outscored their opponents 239 to 36 in the first half and that includes a 14-14 halftime score @ UNC. Many of those games vs teams that are better than this NC State squad. The Wolfpack are 4-4 but their wins have come against Western Carolina, East Carolina, Ball State and Syracuse. Their four losses have all come in conference play and all were easy wins for their opponents. They lost by 34 points to Wake, 21 points to BC, 18 points to Florida State, and 17 points to West Virginia. Clemson is obviously far superior to any of those teams and they all handled NC State quite easily. They are really struggling offensively with 16 or fewer points in 3 of their last 4 games. Last week they scored just 10 points @ Wake (a 44-10 loss) who was allowing 27 PPG to their FBS opponents entering last week’s game. Wake’s defense ranks 69th nationally in total defense and was actually the BEST defense NC State has faced this season. Now they face the Tigers who rank 4th nationally in total defense and 3rd in defensive efficiency (yards per play). There is a chance that State doesn’t score in this game but if they do we think it will be late in the game when its already out of reach. Also, let’s not discount that this Clemson team, who won the National Championship last year, feels they are being disrespected after ranking #5 and not currently in the BCS Final four in the initial rankings that came out earlier this week. They’re primed to blast someone and we think they’ll come out with guns a blazing as they say in the first half here.
|
11-09-19 |
Missouri +16.5 v. Georgia |
|
0-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
48 h 44 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Missouri Tigers (+) over Georgia Bulldogs, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #181
Tigers QB Kelly Bryant is on the injury report this week but he has been upgraded to probable and, as of Thursday afternoon, is on track and "ready to go" for Saturday. He has been taking the majority of the 1st team repetitions in practice. The Tigers defense could be the real story in this match-up. Missouri is catching the Bulldogs off a big win over Florida last week in Jacksonville. Georgia is favored by nearly 17 points in this match-up with the Tigers. That is big overlay in this game considering that this is a Missouri defense that, after a tough opening week performance that led to a loss at Wyoming, has helped lead the way to a 5-2 run for the Tigers as they have allowed just 15.4 points per game in those 7 games. Missouri's offense did struggle in their past two weeks but, coming off their bye week, they'll be ready to bounce back here and Bryant had to exit their previous game (at Kentucky). Georgia is not only off the big win over Gators, they have big games on deck with Auburn and Texas A & M too. The Tigers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Bulldogs. Per our computer math model, Missouri will bounce back from the 29-7 loss at Kentucky that preceded their bye week. They don't get the SU win here but they get the all-important cover. Georgia has failed to cover 8 straight games when they are at home facing a team with a winning record that is off a loss by a margin of more than 14 points. Grab the big points with Missouri as a road dog in afternoon action Saturday.
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11-09-19 |
Iowa v. Wisconsin -8.5 |
|
22-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
45 h 57 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Wisconsin Badgers(-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #194
We love how this game sets up for the Badgers. They began the season with a perfect 6-0 record and rolled over their opponents by a combined score of 255 to 29 or an average score of 42 to 5. Two of those wins came against Michigan (35-14) and Michigan State (38-0). Their defense pitched 4 shutouts in those first 6 games. In game 7 they traveled to Illinois and were upset 24-23. It was a look ahead game for UW with Ohio State on deck and they simply didn’t play well. With that said, A LOT had to go wrong in the final quarter for them to lose that game and it did. The Badgers outgained the Illini significantly and held a 23-14 lead with 7:30 remaining AND had the ball inside the Illini 30 yard line. Any type of score there and the game is over. Wisconsin fumbled and Illinois scored 4 plays later to make it 23-21. Then another Badger turnover late led to the Illinois game winning FG. Two weeks ago before the bye UW lost big @ Ohio State which doesn’t affect our handicap here at all. OSU is simply that good. Wisconsin should really be 7-1 which is right where we thought they’d be as of a few weeks ago. Getting them at home, off 2 losses, laying less than 10 we feel is a bargain. Iowa is solid but lost both of their step up games in the Big Ten to Michigan and Penn State. The Hawkeye offense has struggled big time vs good defenses this year. They have played 2 games this year vs defenses ranked in the top 30 in total defense (Michigan & Penn State) and scored a grand total of ONE touchdown in those two games combined! Now they face a Wisconsin defense that ranks 1st in the nation in total defense, 2nd in defensive efficiency (yards per play), and 4th in scoring defense. Not only that, it’s a defense that was embarrassed in their most recent game allowing 38 points to Ohio State and had a bye week to stew over that performance. Iowa won’t score much in this game. We realize Iowa’s defense is very solid as well but Wisconsin’s offense has proven they can score against similar defenses. They put up 35 at home on Michigan (7th nationally in total defense) and 38 on Michigan State (20th in total defense). Iowa will be without their top WR (Smith) and possibly their leading tackler (Welch) on Saturday. Wisconsin has owned this series winning 6 of the last 7 and they beat Iowa 28-17 last year in Iowa City and it was a down year for the Badgers in 2018 (8-5 record). If that team can win by double digits @ Iowa last year, we have no doubt this team can cruise in this game on Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium.
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11-09-19 |
Kansas State v. Texas -7 |
Top |
24-27 |
Loss |
-105 |
19 h 17 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Longhorns (+) over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #184
The sharp money is on Texas in this game. As of Thursday afternoon, 67% of the tickets are being written on Kansas State in this game since the line opened up at -5 and yet the Longhorns are now up to a -7. That tells you that the bigger wagers are coming in on Texas in this one. The set up here is ideal as the Wildcats are off back to back huge wins. In the past three weeks Kansas State is off 3 straight big wins. They won at home against TCU, then upset Oklahoma when they hosted the Sooners and then followed that up with a huge win against the rival Jayhawks at Kansas. Sure one could argue that Kansas State has plenty of momentum here but what we see with this is an over-rated Wildcats team due for a letdown game. That is why they are ranked 20th in the nation and yet odds makers are favoring the un-ranked Horns in this spot! The fact is that upset wins, of course, do happen in College Football and the Wildcats put it all together when they upset the Sooners two weeks ago. However, Kansas State's other 5 wins this season have included a win over an FCS school (Nichols State) and 4 other FBS teams of which NONE have a winning record. The Longhorns are going to be ready here. They are coming off a bye week and this followed a game in which QB Sam Ehlinger threw 4 interceptions in an ugly loss against TCU. Poor games on offense have certainly been the exception rather than the norm this season for Ehlinger and the Horns. Texas has been particularly strong in Austin as they have averaged 42.3 points in their 4 games at Memorial Stadium this year. Where the Longhorns have had issues this season is on the other side of the ball but therein lies the key to this match-up. Texas is coming off a bye week and finally near 100% health on the defensive side of the ball. The key is their secondary is getting back to full strength this week. Both safeties Caden Sterns and BJ Foster are coming back this week. Also, DeMarvion Overshown is expected to play for the first time this season as the defensive back got injured right before the season in fall camp and has been upgraded to probable for this game. Texas was counting on Overshown as a key member of the secondary as well and you can see why we're expected a much improved performance from the Longhorns defense in this one. They are finally healthy and they catch the Wildcats at the right time and in the right place to deliver a blowout win and that is precisely what our computer math model is forecasting here. The home team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series. Make that 8-0 ATS when this one goes into the books! Lay the points with Texas and look for a home blowout in afternoon action Saturday.
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11-02-19 |
Virginia +2.5 v. North Carolina |
Top |
38-31 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 1 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (+) over North Carolina Tar Heels, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #337
Perfect set up to back a solid underdog in this one. While Virginia fell just short at Louisville last week, the Tar Heels hung on for a tight win over Duke last week in Chapel Hill. The Cavaliers lost the turnover battle 2-0 against the Cardinals and that factored into their loss. Speaking of turnovers, the Blue Devils threw an INT from the NC 2-yard line with under half a minute to go in the 3 point Heels win. After winning a nail-biter like that in dramatic fashion, the Tar Heels could be a little spent this week. That is why they are such a small favorite here despite being at home and facing a Cavaliers team that has lost 3 straight road games. This line looks like an open invitation to take the home team minus the short number and, of course, you know what that generally leads to - a road dog upset! The Heels were fortunate to escape with the win over Duke last week and they won't be so fortunate here. North Carolina is just 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they have been a favorite. Also, the Cavaliers are looking to make it 3 in a row (both SU and ATS) in meetings with UNC as they have had their number in recent meetings. Virginia has been solid defending the pass this season as they are allowing only 58% completions and 166 passing yards per game. Comparing that to North Carolina (64% completions and 242 passing yards allowed per game) and it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for the Cavs to hold a significant edge over the Heels in the passing game in this one. The Tar Heels were fortunate to hang on against Duke and that tight win was preceded by North Carolina losing 3 of their past 4 games including losing to a Sun Belt Conference team and losing to a Virginia Tech team that is really down this season. 3 of UNC's 4 wins this season have come by a combined total of just 10 points and, again, the Tar Heels already have 4 losses this season too. The Cavaliers had allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their first 7 games this season. Coming off a disappointing loss where they gave up 28 points, Virginia's defense is poised for a strong bounce back effort here. The Cavs catch the Tar Heels in a tough spot here as they have played back to back brutally tough games. The war with Duke was preceded by a 6-OT loss at Virginia Tech. Look for North Carolina to run out of gas as this game goes on and the Cavaliers pull away down the stretch. Grab the points with Virginia as a road dog in early evening action Saturday.
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11-02-19 |
Pittsburgh -7 v. Georgia Tech |
|
20-10 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 2 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Pittsburgh Panthers (-) over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #317
Our power ratings have Pitt favored by 10 here so we feel we’re getting value with the Panthers. The reason the line sits at -7.5 we feel is both teams recent results vs Miami FL. It was the most recent game for each of these 2 teams. Georgia Tech went to Miami as a +18 point favorite and won the game 28-21 in OT. Tech had fewer first downs, was outgained in the game and their first score was a defensive TD. They also caught Miami off a huge win vs Virginia who is one of the favorites to win the ACC Coastal division. A lot had to go right for Tech to win that game and it did. Follow that up the next week with Miami traveling to Pittsburgh. The Canes bounced back from their loss to Ga Tech with a 16-12 win as a 4.5 point underdog. Despite the loss, Pitt outgained the Canes 322 to 208 and on the ground they held Miami to just 54 yards on 27 carries (Pitt had 176 yards rushing). So in essence, the Panthers dominated the game and lost at home (3 turnovers didn’t help). Those two results set this one up nicely. Pitt sits at 2-2 in the ACC Coastal, one win behind first place Virginia & North Carolina. This is a must win for them. Their defense has been superb allowing just 4.2 YPP which ranks them 7th in the nation. They have been a brick wall vs opposing teams rushing attacks allowing just 85 YPG on 2.6 YPC (ranked 6th nationally in both categories). They match up very well vs a Georgia Tech offense that loves to run the ball and simply isn’t a very good passing team completing an average of just 11 per game. Georgia Tech’s offense ranks 118th nationally and will have trouble scoring much in this game. Remember, the Jackets have switched from their option based offense after head coach Paul Johnson retired last year. New head coach Geoff Collins has implemented a new system and doesn’t really have the players to fit it yet. They can’t throw (120th in passing offense) because he has option QB’s on the roster which were recruited by Johnson. If they can’t run, which will be a struggle here, they are in trouble. Pitt’s offense is far from dynamic but we feel they won’t have to score much to get this cover. If they get to their 21 PPG average that may be enough to cover this number. However, facing a Ga Tech defense that has allowed more points than any other team in the ACC Coastal, we like the Panthers to top 21 points which should be enough here. Lay it with Pitt.
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11-02-19 |
Miami-FL v. Florida State -3 |
|
27-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
24 h 34 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Florida State Seminoles (-) over Miami Hurricanes, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #388
Both of these teams come in with a 4-4 record but FSU is the better team right now. With this line sitting at FSU -3 at home, it’s actually saying Miami is the better team and would be -1 on a neutral field. We completely disagree with that. Since blowing a 31-13 lead in their home opener vs Boise (36-31 FSU loss) the Seminoles have won 4 straight at home. In their ACC home games they have won by margins of 11 (vs Louisville), 18 (vs NC State), and 18 (vs Syracuse). Miami will be on the road for the 2nd consecutive Saturday after topping Pitt last week as a 4.5 point dog. The Canes were a bit lucky to pick up that win as they were outplayed quite drastically on the stat sheet. Miami had just 12 first downs and only 208 total yards of offense as they were outgained by 114 yards. A week earlier the Hurricanes lost at home to Georgia Tech as an 18 point favorite. Two weeks prior to that they lost at home to Va Tech as a 14 point favorite. The fact that they have already lost 4 games outright this season as a favorite tells us they are inconsistent and definitely overvalued. FSU has had just one poor performance over their last 5 games and that was vs Clemson which was to be expected. Their only other loss during that stretch was 22-20 @ Wake in a game the probably should have won outgaining the Demon Deacons and holding the lead late in the 4th quarter. We get this is a rivalry so both teams will be more than ready, however the Noles have had this one circled for a full year or really two years. In 2017 FSU held a 20-17 lead late until Miami scored a TD with 6 seconds remaining for the win. Last year in Miami the Noles held a 27-7 lead and lost 28-27. We expect a very good performance from Florida State here and look for a win by at least a TD.
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10-31-19 |
Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State -14.5 |
|
24-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY 9* ON Appalachian State Mountaineers (-) over Georgia Southern Eagles, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #304
Last season when Appalachian State faced the Eagles the game was at Georgia Southern. The Mountaineers were actually ranked then too but lost their QB in the 1st quarter plus lost 5 turnovers in the game! As a result, it comes as no surprise that App State lost that game by a 20 point margin That being said, this is not just a typical revenge situation, this is a special one and we fully expect the Mountaineers to make the most of it. Appalachian State is the much stronger team on both sides of the ball and their 4 victories on their home field this season have come by an average margin of 28.5 points! While it is true that Georgia Southern comes into this game off 3 straight SU victories, it is also true that the wins came against a pair of conference foes that are a combined 0-7 in SBC action and a win over a New Mexico State team that is 0-8 on the season. The point is that the Eagles are really taking a big step up in level of competition here and Appalachian State gets revenge in a big way. Per our computer math model, the Mountaineers not only improve to 8-0 SU, they also improve to 6-2 ATS on the year. Lay the big points with Appalachian State in what should be a home blowout in evening action Thursday.
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10-26-19 |
Washington State +14.5 v. Oregon |
|
35-37 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 49 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Washington State Cougars (+) over Oregon Ducks, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #153
At 4-0 in Pac-12 action, Oregon is atop the Pac-12 North and, on the other side of the standings, at 3-1 in Pac-12 action entering Friday's game at Colorado, USC is atop the Pac-12 South. That holds some significance here because next up for the Ducks is a big game at Southern Cal. The last time Oregon visited USC they left smarting from a 25 point road loss. This is clearly a spot where the Ducks could get caught looking ahead to a big game on deck. Oregon could look right past a 1-3 Washington State team and that will prove to be a mistake as the Cougars are a team that has a history of giving the Ducks trouble. This is particularly true at the betting window as Oregon is 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games against the Cougars. This includes the Ducks going 0-4 SU in their last 4 games against Washington State. The Cougars enter this game with plenty of confidence as coach Mike Leach, when it comes to facing Oregon, has had their number in recent years plus Washington State rolled to a 41-10 home win last week! Even in weather conditions that weren't the greatest, the Cougars got their offense rolling plus showed improve defensive play in knocking off Colorado. With their first Pac-12 win under their belt and an offense that at 7.66 yards per play ranks 4th in the nation for offensive efficiency, the Cougars are going to give the Ducks all they can handle here. Grab the big points with Washington State on the road in late night action Saturday.
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10-26-19 |
California +21.5 v. Utah |
|
0-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
32 h 22 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* California Golden Bears (+) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10:00 PM ET: Game #141
Utah is in a huge lookahead spot here. We still expect the Utes to get the win here as they certainly are the superior team to Cal but this is simply far too many points for Utah to be laying in this spot. Last year the Utes lost the Pac-12 Championship game to the Huskies. Next week's game for Utah (you guessed it!) is at Washington! Suffice to say the Utes have that game on their mind a bit as it also difficult for them to get too excited about this match-up with a Golden Bears team that has been struggling. Of course overlooking a Cal team that is ranked 20th in the nation for scoring defense certainly could prevent Utah from covering a spread that is in the 3 TD range here! The Bears have excelled in this role recently as they are actually a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they have been a road dog in Pac-12 action. The Utes have been very strong defensively this season and allowed just 3 points to Arizona State last week. However, a late turnover is what led to Utah getting a somewhat fortunate cover in that one. The Utes "luck" runs out here as Cal is only 4-3 SU on the season but note that Utah is 0-8 ATS when they are off a game where they allowed 9 or less points and are now facing a team with a winning percentage of .599 or less. The Golden Bears will be a scrappy underdog here and hang within the big number the odds makers set on this game. Grab the big points with California as a big road dog in late night action Saturday.
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10-26-19 |
Central Florida v. Temple +11 |
|
63-21 |
Loss |
-117 |
29 h 25 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Temple Owls (+) over UCF Knights, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #124
This is a great value spot with Temple at home. The Owls are coming off an embarrassing performance at SMU which was to be expected after they upset Memphis here at home the week prior. Speaking of that Memphis game, the Owls were +4 to +4.5 in that game and now they are getting 10+ points vs UCF. Why is that significant? We have UCF and Memphis rated almost the exact same in our power ratings (UCF would be a 1-point favorite on a neutral field) yet we are getting 6 more points in this game. That’s the value we are talking about. UCF is overrated in our opinion. They have played 3 road games this year and lost 2 of those games @ Cincinnati and @ Pitt and were favored in both. Temple, on the other hand, is 4-0 SU & ATS at home winning 2 of those games outright as underdogs vs Maryland & Memphis. The Owls have been a consistent money maker as a home underdog with an 8-1 ATS mark their last 9 winning SIX of those games outright. We also get them at home coming off by far their worst performance of the year @ SMU. It was a terrible spot for Temple as SMU was off a bye week and a home game vs Tulsa in which they played poorly. The Mustangs were catching Temple off their Memphis upset as we mentioned, and the Owl defense was shredded for 655 yards. That is very atypical for this defense that had held 5 of their first 6 opponents under their current scoring average. UCF QB Dillon is a freshman and hasn’t been great on the road with his 3 lowest QB rating games being his 3 road contests. Last year Temple was +10.5 @ UCF and led 34-28 at half. The Owls outgained the Knights in that game but wound up losing 52-40 with UCF scoring 17 points in the last 15:00 minutes of the game. After the way they lost last year, coming off a poor performance last week, and at home where they’ve been very good, we look for Temple to keep this game close throughout.
|
10-26-19 |
Penn State v. Michigan State +5.5 |
|
28-7 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 57 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Michigan State Spartans (+) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #162
We couldn’t ask for a better set up here for MSU. They are coming off two of their worst losses of the season @ Ohio State 34-10 & @ Wisconsin 38-0. That’s as tough a back to back road game scenario as anyone in the country had or has this year. Now we look for MSU, who is coming off a bye, to play with a huge chip on their shoulder at home vs Penn State on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are on the other end of the spectrum situation wise as they are off a huge home win over Michigan. It was the most anticipated home game for Penn State this season and a game they had been waiting for after getting embarrassed by Michigan last year. They picked up a big 28-21 win but PSU was completely outplayed on the field. They had 12 fewer first downs, were outgained by 125 total yards and had a 15 minute time of possession disadvantage. After jumping out to a 21-0 lead, Penn State had less than 100 yards of offense from that point on and were held to 1.9 yards per play in the 2nd half. The Michigan offense, which had been struggling, put up 417 yards, the most PSU has allowed this season. The Lions held on for dear life at the end and a Michigan dropped pass in the endzone prevented this one from going to OT. They had nearly the same situation a week earlier as they played a physical game vs Iowa and held on to win 17-12. Both games were prime time ABC night games. The way those games played out we expect Penn State to have trouble getting up to their peak level for this road game. The PSU offense gets credit for being explosive, however the top two defenses they played this year (Michigan & Iowa) held them to 293 & 294 yards respectively and they were outgained in both games. Now facing an angry MSU defense that is among the best in the nation, we look for the Nittany Lions to struggle offensively on Saturday. The Spartan defense was allowing just 55 YPG rushing before hitting their OSU & Wisconsin games. The Buckeyes ran over Sparty for more than 300 yards which wasn’t surprising as the OSU offense might be the best unit in college football right now. A week later they were more effective holding Badger All American Jonathan Taylor to just 80 yards on 26 carries but you could see MSU was just worn out physically & emotionally from their Ohio State game the week before. Offensively they did not play well vs those two defenses who rank #1 and #2 NATIONALLY in total defense. If you throw out those 2 games, MSU is averaging 31 PPG on the season so they are not as bad as they’ve looked the last 2 weeks. Off a bye, we expect some new wrinkles on offense and facing a PSU defense coming off 2 huge games, we think the Spartan offense will look much better on Saturday. The have outgained every opponent this year with the exception of OSU & Wisconsin. Off 2 weeks of rest and two embarrassing performances, we look for the Spartans to play their best game of the season in a must win spot. We’re getting nearly a field goal of line value here as well in our opinion. We rate MSU and Iowa nearly dead even on a neutral field yet Michigan State is getting nearly a FG more than what Iowa was getting (+3) at home in this match up just 2 weeks ago and MSU is in a much better situation than the Hawkeyes were. The Spartans have been a money making underdog with a record of 21-9 ATS their last 30 as a puppy. They’ve also beaten PSU outright each of the last 2 seasons as a double digit underdog so MSU won’t lack for confidence here. We like the Spartans to win this game at home so we’re taking the points.
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10-26-19 |
Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Iowa State |
Top |
34-27 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 17 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #169
Oklahoma State is off what, on the surface, appears to be a blowout loss to Baylor 45-27 last week. However, that game unraveled late for the Cowboys as they were done in by late turnovers. Note that the Bears pulled away late in the game courtesy of some key turnovers. The fact is that Oklahoma State had 27 first downs in the game compared to 18 for Baylor. The point we're making here is that the Cowboys weren't nearly as bad as the final score would indicate in last week's loss and now they're catching double digits against an Iowa State team that comes into this game overvalued. The Cyclones two toughest games this season were hosting Iowa and visiting Baylor. Iowa State lost both games. The Cyclones do have a bye on deck but then face Oklahoma and Texas. Both the Sooners and Longhorns beat Iowa State last season and the loss to the Sooners was the only Big 12 home loss that the Cyclones had all season long. Should the Cyclones lose focus a bit here against a Cowboys team that is 1-3 in Big 12 action (Oklahoma and Texas a combined 7-1 in Big 12 action), Oklahoma State absolutely can make them pay. The Cowboys rank 8th in the nation in total offense this season and Oklahoma State is playing this game with revenge from a home loss to the Cyclones last year. While Iowa State is playing for the 7th consecutive week (and 3 of last 4 have been on the road), the Cowboys had a bye week two weeks ago and will prove to be the fresher team in this match-up. Also, from a motivational standpoint, OSU will bring their A game this week after B2B SU losses by a double digit margin. In fact, this play is also supported by an angle along those lines. The Cyclones are 0-6 ATS the last 6 times they've been favored by 19.5 points or less against an opponent off B2B SU losses including the most recent defeat coming by a double digit margin. The Cowboys will be ready Saturday and have the offense to stay within a score throughout this conference clash. Grab the generous points with Oklahoma State as a sizable road dog in afternoon action Saturday.
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10-19-19 |
Colorado v. Washington State -12 |
Top |
10-41 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #372
Washington State is coming in extra hungry for a win off 3 consecutive losses. Last week they led Arizona State on the road late and the Devils picked up a TD with under 1:00 minute remaining to get the 38-34 win. Their game prior to that was a loss @ Utah and a flat spot coming off an embarrassing home loss. Speaking of their most recent home game it was a full month ago and it was an embarrassment as we said with the Cougars blowing a 49-17 lead in a 67-64 loss to UCLA. Now back at home for the first time since blowing that massive lead, you can bet WSU won’t hold back here. No lead is too safe will be their outlook. This is a bad spot for Colorado playing their 2nd of back to back road game after getting destroyed 45-3 @ Oregon last week. It’s not only a bad situation but a terrible match up for the Buffs. The Colorado defense is one of the worst in the nation at defending the pass and WSU QB Anthony Gordon can wing it with the best of them. The Buff defense currently ranks 123rd nationally in total defense (out of 130), 118th in pass efficiency defense, and 124th in passing yards allowed. Those terrible numbers INCLUDE a game vs Air Force who rarely passes and still threw for 155 yards on CU. On Saturday they face a Washington State passing offense that ranks #1 nationally lighting it up for 453 YPG through the air. Their QB Gordon is completing 71% of his passes and has 25 TD’s and just 6 interceptions on the year. The CU defense has allowed 30 or more points in EVERY game this season and they will not stop this Cougar offense that will be on a mission in this game. We expect upper 40’s to 50+ from WSU in this game. The Colorado offense is reeling a bit after scoring only 3 points last week @ Oregon and we don’t expect them to be able to keep up in this game. WSU has dominated the last 2 games in this series (one on the road and one at home) winning 31-7 last year and 28-0 the previous year with a combined yardage edge of +412. These two both have 3-3 record but there is a reason State is favored by almost 2 TD’s. They have a +1.2 YPP margin on the year while Colorado has a -1.1 YPP margin. Washington State is better than their record and CU should not be a .500 team. Lay it in this one.
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10-19-19 |
Rice -4.5 v. UTSA |
|
27-31 |
Loss |
-108 |
27 h 48 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Rice Owls (-) over UTSA Roadrunners, Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #415
When you see an 0-6 team listed as the favorite on the road it certainly may seem surprising or you may feel it is a mistake. Of course the reality is that the odds makers made the 0-6 Owls the favorite with plenty of good reasoning! One thing we know for sure is that the 2-4 Roadrunners are not a very good football team. They have a win over a non-FBS team (Incarnate Word) and their other win came against a 1-4 UTEP team. The reason that Rice is without a win while the Roadrunners have two victories on the season simply comes down to scheduling. The Owls have faced a much tougher schedule this season. 3 of Rice's 6 losses have come by a single possession. Also, the Owls do have revenge here as the Roadrunners have held the upper hand in their meetings in recent seasons. This is Owls coach Bloomgreen's 2nd season with the team and Rice, downtrodden for so long, is showing improvement even though that has yet to shown up in the win column. With this being an I-10 rivalry game (San Antonio just 3 hours west of Houston on the interstate), this is the ideal spot for the highly motivated Owls to break into the win column. The Roadrunners got destroyed by UAB last week while Rice enters this game off a bye week. The Runners were outgained 492 to 220 in last week's loss to the Blazers. Both teams struggle in terms of offensive efficiency this season but the Roadrunners also are horrible in terms of defensive efficiency and rank 116th in the nation in that category. Look for the Owls to break off some big runs for huge yardage in this one as the UTSA defense continues to struggle with giving up too many big plays. The Rice run defense actually held Texas, La Tech, UAB and Baylor to an average of just 127 rushing yards per game. Of course those teams all have offensive attacks vastly superior to the Roadrunners offense. UTSA struggles to throw the ball too and hasn't even thrown for 100 passing yards in 3 of their 6 games. .As a result, the Roadrunners drop to 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games with another ugly home performance here. Lay the small points with Rice as a small road favorite in early evening action Saturday.
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10-19-19 |
North Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia Tech |
|
41-43 |
Loss |
-105 |
24 h 6 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #397
UNC is in a great spot coming off a bye for this revenge game. It’s a game they’ve been waiting for after losing at home last year 22-19 to the Hokies. It was a game that saw UNC dominate the stat sheet (522 yards to 375) but they watched Va Tech score a TD with 19 seconds remaining to get the come from behind win. We’d argue that UNC is much better this year compared to last season’s team and Va Tech is down from a year ago. There is definitely a reason the 3-3 Tar Heels are favored at the 4-2 Hokies. North Carolina has played the much tougher schedule already facing the likes of South Carolina (win), Clemson (lost by 1), Wake (lost by 6), and Miami FL (win). All 3 of their losses have come down to the wire including their near win over National Champion Clemson – UNC went for 2 and the win late in the game but were unsuccessful. Even with their tough schedule the Heels are outgaining their opponents 425 to 371 and QB Howell has been very good with 15 TD’s and just 3 interceptions. Head coach Mack Brown has this team confident and playing very well. Va Tech, on the other hand, has played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They’ve already played 2 FCS teams and struggled with both. They barely got by Furman earlier in the year and last week they led Rhode Island only 24-17 heading into the 4th quarter. Their other wins came vs Miami FL but the Hokies were outgained by 230 yards in the game and benefited from 5 Cane interceptions and Old Dominion who currently has 1 win on the year. Despite their 4 wins and their ultra easy schedule, VT is dead even yardage wise on the year averaging 380 YPG and allowing 380 YPG. If you subtract their games vs FCS opponents VT is averaging 360 YPG on 5.1 YPP while allowing 435 YPG on 6.0 YPP. Tech is 0-3 ATS at home this year and their once vaunted home field advantage has gone by the wayside as of late as they have won only 3 of their last 8 home games vs FBS opponents dating back to the start of last season. They also continue to be overvalued covering only 4 of their last 15 games overall. UNC the much better team and rested. We’ll lay it.
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10-19-19 |
LSU v. Mississippi State +18 |
|
36-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
24 h 3 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) over LSU Tigers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #380
This is simply a case of too many points. LSU is off a huge win versus Florida last week and also has a big game with Auburn on deck. That makes this a very tough spot here for the Tigers as they take on a Mississippi State team that will want to make the most of this opportunity on its home field. The Bulldogs have covered 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. Keep in mind that the Tigers were actually down by a TD in the 3rd quarter of their win over the Gators last week. As for the Bulldogs, they are off a loss at Tennessee last week in a game in which Mississippi State was favored by a touchdown. Clearly the Bulldogs got caught looking ahead to this week's big game and, as a result, they paid the price (outright upset loss as a favorite). Last year's match-up with LSU was the first for Mississippi State with Moorhead as head coach. Suffice to say, neither here nor the players have forgotten it either as the Bulldogs were held to just 3 points in that defeat! They've been looking forward to this opportunity to atone for that performance. Before their low-scoring loss to the Volunteers last week, the Bulldogs had not been held below 23 points in any of their first 5 games this season. The Mississippi State offense bounces back this week and takes advantage of catching LSU is what is a classic flat spot for the Tigers. The Bulldogs are highly unlikely to get the outright upset here but, per our computer math model, they will keep the margin in this game much closer than what the betting market is forecasting. Grab the big points with Mississippi State as a big home dog in afternoon action Saturday.
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10-19-19 |
Tulsa +17.5 v. Cincinnati |
|
13-24 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 0 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) over Cincinnati Bearcats, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #339
The Bearcats won big at Houston last week but they were actually outgained by the Cougars in that game. Certainly Cincinnati deserves credit for the win but the fact is they had two very short TD drives and also the defense scored a TD in that game. As a result, this week the markets have Cincinnati over-valued in this spot and we won't hesitate to take advantage with the hungry underdog, Tulsa, in this one. The road team has covered each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. The Golden Hurricane enter this game off an ugly loss to Navy last week but that was not unexpected. It was a bad spot for Tulsa after a gut-wrenching triple-overtime loss to SMU. Also, the Golden Hurricane faced the unique option attack of the Midshipmen last week. Again, not a good match-up nor a good situation for Tulsa. As a result, the markets have heavily undervalued the Golden Hurricane here because of the recent results. The fact is that, last week notwithstanding, the Tulsa defense had shown improvement this season. The Golden Hurricane allowed an average of just 27 points in regulation time of their first 5 games this season. The Bearcats are being asked to cover 17 points here and that is a big ask when consideration is given to the above. The Golden Hurricane are 16-8 ATS the last 24 times they have been a road dog. Cincinnati is averaging only 28.7 points per game at home this season. The big road dog keeps this one close as Bearcats get caught already thinking about their upcoming bye week. Grab the big points with Tulsa on the road in afternoon action Saturday.
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10-17-19 |
UCLA +3.5 v. Stanford |
|
34-16 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* UCLA Bruins (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #307
The Bruins and Cardinal both enter this game off a bye. However, prior to their bye UCLA lost to Oregon State while Stanford had huge win (over Washington) and are off their best game of the season. Teams often end up flat after a game like that and that is the reason the sharp money is on the Bruins in this game. Consider that Stanford has won 11 in a row SU in this series and yet the line (Cardinal as a favorite) has been moving down all week long. UCLA certainly has had issues this season (including with their pass defense) but this situation is ripe for an upset and the Bruins have actually played better on the road than at home this season. Per our computer math model, that trend continues here as UCLA improves to 3-0 ATS last 3 road games. Stanford is 0-5 ATS the last 5 times the Cardinal has been a home favorite of 3.5 points or less. That makes this a double perfect ATS spot to fade Stanford and play the Bruins as they travel well for a 3rd straight time at the betting window! Grab the points with UCLA as a small road underdog in evening action Thursday.
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10-12-19 |
Navy v. Tulsa |
|
45-17 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 7 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Navy Midshipmen (-) over Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #123
The Tulsa offense is struggling this season and ranked in the bottom 20 of the nation for offensive efficiency as they average just 4.99 yards per play. The Golden Hurricane come into this game off a very emotionally draining loss as they fell in triple overtime against SMU. Not only is that a tough loss to bounce back from on the simple fact that it is was a defeat in 3 OTs, there are more facts here that make it even tougher! For one thing Tulsa missed a pair of field goals in overtime including one that would have immediately ended the game had they made it. Additionally, and an even bigger factor relating to the disappointment for the Golden Hurricane here, is that they blew a 3 touchdown 4th quarter lead. Tulsa led that game against the Mustangs by a count of 30-9 in the final stanza! Another concern for the Golden Hurricane here is the fact that their inefficient offense also plays a fast pace. They rank in the top 20 in the nation for pace on offense. But if you're playing fast but, as the same time, not efficiently in terms of your production, than you're going to be punting quickly and forcing your defense to spend too much time on the field. That defense is going to be challenged this week in a big way. Coming off a 3-OT game and then facing the option attack is truly double trouble for a team and the Golden Hurricane have a history of struggling to stop Navy. They allowed nearly 400 rushing yards in last season's match-up and this rushing yardage range has actually been the norm for the Midshipmen in recent series history. Although Navy comes into this game off a win over rival Air Force they will not be flat here. The Midshipmen actually have a history of performing well under their current head coach when they are off their annual game against the Falcons and we expect no drop-off here. Navy enters this game on a 6-1 ATS run their last 7 games in regular season action and, per our computer math model, the Tulsa struggles on both sides of the ball continue in what is a very tough spot for them after last week's result against SMU. Bet Navy on the road in early evening action Saturday.
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10-12-19 |
Penn State v. Iowa +3.5 |
|
17-12 |
Loss |
-119 |
30 h 16 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #204
We’re getting nearly a TD of value on Iowa here when comparing this number to the first line that came out before the season started. That line had the Hawkeyes favored by -2 and -3. Now Iowa is getting +3.5 to +4 based on the current perceptions of these teams. Iowa was undefeated heading into last week when they lost at Michigan 10-3. Their defense played lights out and the offense turned the ball over 4 times in the game after turning it over just once through the first 4 games. PSU has crushed two lower tier Big Ten teams (Maryland and Purdue without their QB) and now Iowa is a home under of more than a FG? Penn State was favored in this match up last year by -5.5 at home. Now they are laying nearly the same number on the road despite losing their QB McSorley and RB Sanders who’ve both moved on to the NFL. PSU won that game 30-24 in a game that Iowa outgained them 350 to 312. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 but they’ve played a very easy schedule to date. They have not played a rated team and they have not faced anyone in our top 45 power rankings. The best team they played this year was Pitt who nearly beat them in Happy Valley. The Panthers outgained PSU in that game but the Lions held on for a 17-10 win. They’ve played only one road game this season and Iowa will be by far their toughest opponent this year and it’s on the road. The Penn State offense has been rolling vs poor defenses as of late and they now face a Iowa defense that has allowed only 5 TD’s through 5 games. The Hawkeyes have played the tougher slate with two teams in our top 25 power rankings losing a tight game @ Michigan and beating a very good Iowa State team on the road. We expect veteran Iowa QB Stanley to bounce back after one of his worst performances of his career with 4 interceptions. He now has 60 TD’s and 20 interceptions in his successful career. This is a night game in Iowa City which is one of the toughest venues in the Big Ten. Iowa has played 19 night games at Kinnick Stadium winning 13 of them. Since October of 2000, Iowa has been a home underdog 20 times. They are 13-5-2 ATS in those games and PSU comes into this game overvalued due to their easy slate. Take the points as we like Iowa to win this game outright.
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10-12-19 |
Army -4.5 v. Western Kentucky |
|
8-17 |
Loss |
-104 |
30 h 39 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Army Black Knights (-) over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #191
Western Kentucky is in a flat spot here as they are off a huge revenge win over Old Dominion last week. That was a game that the Hilltoppers had circled on their calendar when the schedule came out. Now the Toppers have to try and stop Army's option attack and this is not something they see often. In fact, the Western Kentucky defensive coordinator (White) has never faced the option and, prior to becoming DC here, he was coaching special teams and defensive backs. This is why, even though Western Kentucky has solid numbers against the run this season, they face an entirely different and unique challenge this week that is likely to give them fits. Making the spot even tougher for the Hilltoppers is that they faced a very poor (and struggling!) offense in the form of the Monarchs last week.. Western Kentucky goes from that to now facing a Black Knights team off a home loss against an improved Tulane team. Keep in mind that Army also went toe to toe (only losing in OT) against the Wolverines at Michigan earlier this season. In Army West Point's other road game this season they won by 18 away from home! In fact, just playing the road team in Black Knights games this season would have led to a perfect 5-0 ATS mark and we see that mark improving to 6-0 ATS when this one is in the books! Army off a home loss blasts Western Kentucky off a revenging road win! The Hilltoppers rank in the bottom 20 in the nation for offensive efficiency as they average just 5.01 yards per play. The Black Knights defense entered last week having allowed just 14 points per game in regulation time in their first 4 games this season.. After a bad game against Tulane, they'll have no trouble bouncing back and shutting down a sputtering Western Kentucky offensive attack. Couple that with the success of their offensive attack with the option here and they pull away big in this game! Lay the small points with Army as a small road favorite in early evening action Saturday.
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10-12-19 |
Memphis v. Temple +5.5 |
Top |
28-30 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 60 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple Owls (+) over Memphis Tigers, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #128
We love taking the defensive home underdog in this game. Temple’s defense ranks 20th nationally in total defense. They have held 4 of their 5 opponents to 17 points or less. The Owls are 4-1 on the season and they have outgained every opponent yet they are getting nearly a TD at home in this game. Memphis is undefeated and has a potent offense, however they have played a plethora of poor defenses this year. In fact, they have played only ONE defense this season ranked higher than 73rd and that was Navy. In that game Memphis was held to just 301 total yards and that game was in Memphis. The Tigers were down 20-7 in the 2nd quarter but a 99 yard kickoff return turned the game around and Memphis got the win. We expect their offense will struggle on Saturday. The Tigers have actually been outgained in each of their last 2 games including last week @ UL Monroe. In their win last week, the Tigers also had fewer first downs and faced a ULM defense ranked 126th nationally. Now they turn around on the road again and face a top 20 defense. That’s a tall task for a team that we feel comes in drastically overvalued. Temple’s offense is averaging a very solid 445 YPG while allowing only 292 YPG and they have a +1.7 YPP differential. ULM’s offense rolled up nearly 600 yards last week on the Memphis D so we expect the Owls to have plenty of success on that side of the ball. Add that to a defense that can absolutely slow down Memphis and we have an upset brewing. Temple was a home dog once already this year and they beat Maryland outright in that game. In fact, the last 7 times the Owls have been a home dog of 12 points or less, they are a perfect 7-0 ATS. As a home dog in general, Temple has covered 12 of their last 15. Situationally this game also favors the host as Temple played on Thursday so 10 days to prepare while Memphis on the road for their 2nd straight game after playing @ Louisiana Monroe last Saturday. We think Temple has a great shot to win this game outright and we’ll take the points.
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10-10-19 |
Syracuse v. NC State -4.5 |
|
10-16 |
Win
|
100 |
30 h 36 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY 9* ON NC State Wolfpack (-) over Syracuse Orange, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #108
The Orange have gotten the money in each of the past two meetings and did get the SU win last season at Syracuse by a double digit margin. However, the Orange enter this game having lost 11 of their past 17 road games SU and the Wolfpack are 14-2 SU in their last 16 home games. Given the small number posted on this game we like the strong odds here of an NC State SU win at home also equating to an ATS win at the betting window! The Wolfpack seek revenge for last year's loss at Syracuse and the Orange are way down from the level of last season's team after losing their star QB. Also, Syracuse has had a ton of trouble with their offensive line this season and that has led to the Orange QB taking far too many sacks. That doesn't bode well for the road team in this match-up because NC State's defense has been piling up the sacks this season and they also are expected to get a top pass-rusher (Smith-Williams) back for this contest. Per our computer math model, the Wolfpack should win this game by a double digit margin. NC State is 8-1 ATS when they are off an ATS loss by a double digit margin and are facing a conference opponent that is off back to back SU wins. That system fits here with the Orange on a 2-game winning streak (against weak competition by the way) in their past two games. Also, in a weekday game, when Syracuse is an underdog of 13.5 points or less they are on an 0-9 ATS run! Lay the small number here as we fully expect a dominating home win in this one Thursday.
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10-05-19 |
Washington v. Stanford +15.5 |
|
13-23 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 13 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Stanford Cardinal (+) over Washington Huskies, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #352
The home team has dominated this series ATS in recent years with the host covering 6 of the last 8 meetings. The Cardinal have struggled at times this season but getting the win at Oregon State is a boost for this team and they now come home where their defense has played much better this season. Granted one of the games was hosting Northwestern but the other home game was against Oregon and the Cardinal allowed an average of only 14 points and 265 yards per game! Washington is a strong program and will be a major test for Stanford but, per our computer math model, this game lands with a Huskies win somewhere in a range of 7 to 10 points...not the 17 point range that many are expecting! As noted above, the Cardinal are a different team when they are at home and they've proven that through the years as they are known for stepping up their game in spots like this. In fact, 6 of the last 7 times that Stanford has hosted a team that is ranked in the top 25, the Cardinal have gotten the cash! That is an 86% cover rate! Bit of a tough scheduling spot here for the Huskies as they are on the road for the 2nd time in 3 weeks and have another road game (at 3-1 Arizona). As for the Cardinal, they have a bye on deck and are a hungry home pup looking to make amends for losing their prior home game (versus the Ducks). Grab the big points with Stanford as a home dog in late night action Saturday.
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10-05-19 |
Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -7 |
|
6-31 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 16 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Ole Miss Rebels (-) over Vanderbilt Commodores, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #376
Ole Miss is much better than their 2-3 record in our opinion. Their losses have come at the hands of Memphis, Cal, and Alabama who have a combined record of 13-1. Their losses to Cal and Memphis were one possession games and their loss @ Bama last Saturday wasn’t nearly as bad as the 59-31 score might indicate. One of Bama’s TD’s was a blocked punt return for TD and Ole Miss actually dominated this game on the ground rushing for 280 yards while holding the Tide to 157 yards rushing. To put that in perspective the last time the Tide allowed 280 or more yards rushing in a game was January 1st, 2015 vs Ohio State in the Playoffs and the Buckeyes had 281 yards rushing in that game. That was 63 games ago. Very impressive by the Ole Miss offense despite the loss. Now they take a big step down facing a Vandy defense that allows 5.2 YPC on the season and 7.5 yards per play overall. After getting outrushed by Memphis in the season opener, Ole Miss has now outrushed 4 straight opponents by 570 yards including two very good defenses in Bama & Cal. Ole Miss has 2 capable QB’s here but it looks like they will go with John Rhys Plumlee who made the first start of his career last year @ Alabama and was fazed in the least. Plumlee accounted for 223 total yards last week and 2 TD’s including over 100 yards rushing. He brings a dual threat ability that we feel the Commodores will struggle with. If previous starter Matt Corral is healthy (sat out last week with injury) and he gets time we’re fine with that as well as he has passed for 844 yards and 4 TD’s on the season. Two solid options and if both play that could cause problems for Vandy as well. The Commodores are 1-3 (all losses by at least 24 points) with their only win coming at home last Saturday over a MAC team beating Northern Illinois 24-18. Vandy was outgained in that game just as they have been in every game so far this season. In their lone win, NIU had the ball in Vandy territory moving the ball with a chance to win with under 4:00 minutes remaining so this team could easily be 0-4. This is also a game the Rebels have had circled on their calendar and now coming off back to back losses to Cal & Bama, we expect a huge effort. Last year Ole Miss traveled to Vanderbilt in the 2nd to last game of the year as a small underdog. It was a game they really needed for bowl eligibility and they blew it. The Rebs dominated the stats winning total yards 578 to 387 only to lose in OT. That game basically kept them at home for the holidays (no bowl game) and they’ve been waiting on this rematch. Ole Miss has been very good at creating big plays on offense this year with the 9th most 20+ yard plays in FBS this season. That’s been a huge problem for the Vanderbilt defense as they’ve allowed more 20+ yard plays than any other team in the nation. On the other side, Vandy’s offense will struggle to run the ball against a Mississippi defense that allows only 3.3 YPC putting a lot of pressure on QB Neal who hasn’t been great this year. This game really sets up nicely for a double digit Ole Miss win at home.
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10-05-19 |
Western Kentucky -3 v. Old Dominion |
|
20-3 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 50 m |
Show
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ASA PLAY ON 9* Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) over Old Dominion Monarchs, Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #383
Revenge can be an over-used angle if one is not careful. However, there are certain cases of revenge that are at another level of strength. Those are the ones you want to focus in on and that is the type of situation we have here. Western Kentucky, a team that returned 15 starters this season (including 9 on offense), most certainly had this game circled on their schedule after what happened last season. The Hilltoppers, at home no less, saw an astonishing finish last October against Old Dominion. The Toppers led the game by 7 with less than a minute to go but the Monarchs (with no timeouts too!) managed to tie it on a very late TD and then the real craziness began! This was a lead-up to one of the most improbable results that you will ever see as all this came with no time left on the clock in regulation and a field goal attempt by Western Kentucky! The regulation was extended (multiple times) by the fact that a game can not end on a defensive penalty. Long story short, the Monarchs walked away with a highly improbable 3-point win that stunned Western Kentucky as ODU ended up being the team getting a field goal attempt of their own in improbable fashion. As for this year's rematch, the Hilltoppers returned a lot of talent from last year's team (particularly on offense) and the same can not be said for the Monarchs as they returned a total (offense and defense!) of just 6 starters. While both teams have played fairly well on defense this season, they have struggled on offense. However, the Hilltoppers appear much closer to turning that around and they have the returning personnel to do it. Conversely, the Monarchs offense is struggling with a weak offensive line giving up far too many sacks and this has QB Stone Smartt having to rush plays and make mistakes. He has 1 passing TD but 4 interceptions and Western Kentucky's defense is fully capable of forcing mistakes as they did in last week's win over UAB with 4 picks! The Monarchs were favored and yet lost outright to East Carolina last week. Old Dominion is 1-3 this season with their only win (over Norfolk St) coming by just 3 points even though they were favored by 25 points. The Hilltoppers have covered 6 of 7 times when they face a team with a losing record that is off an outright upset loss as a favorite. That system fits here and this is a case of two teams heading opposite directions. Factoring that in along with the revenge coupled with a small line make it a "must play" spot for us! Lay the small points with Western Kentucky on the road in early evening action Saturday.
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10-05-19 |
TCU v. Iowa State -3 |
|
24-49 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 1 m |
Show
|
ASA PLAY ON 9* Iowa State Cyclones (-) over TCU Horned Frogs, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #374
On the surface, it may look like Iowa State is off a disheartening loss since they lost on a late field goal with less than a minute left at Baylor last week. However, the Cyclones actually bring in momentum (and hunger for a win) after that loss because the key take-away for Iowa State from that game was that they rallied from a 20-0 fourth quarter deficit to take a 21-20 lead before falling just short because of the late field goal. Keep in mind, that big comeback took place on the road too! They are getting strong QB play as Purdy has completed about 70% of his passes and has thrown 8 TDs against only 2 INTs on the season. Now a game the Cyclones are fully focused on at home this week and a situation that is not a good one for TCU. . While Iowa State has revenge from losing a tight game to the Horned Frogs last season, TCU is off a dominating revenge win at Kansas last week. Yes the Frogs had actually lost to the Jayhawks last season. Not only was TCU fired up for revenge in that game last week, they also were anxious to release their frustration on Kansas after a disappointing loss the prior week in the Frogs rivalry game with SMU. The point is that TCU put a lot of energy, physical and mental, into last week's game and now they are on the road and have a bye week on deck.. This is the type of scenario - we have seen this many times in the past - that ends up being a flat spot for a team. The Horned Frogs try to coast into their bye week and get blasted in the process. Iowa State is "only" 2-2 SU on the season but their other loss was only by a single point against rival Iowa and they truly outplayed the Hawkeyes in that game but were done in by turnovers. The point is that the Cyclones are within just a few points of being a perfect 4-0 SU on the season and, per our computer math model, they are being severely undervalued here by the betting markets. While none of the Cyclones first 4 opponents this season had a losing record last season, the combined record of the Horned Frogs first four opponents was 16-32 last season. This is the first time that TCU has been a dog this season (but a small dog at that) and we're going to step in and take advantage while the markets still have them over-valued. Lay the points with Iowa State as a small home favorite in very early afternoon action Saturday.
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10-05-19 |
Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 |
Top |
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 9 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #356
We’re getting tremendous line value with this play on Michigan. The line in late summer, before the college football season started, came out on this game at Michigan -14. Now we realize the Wolverines have not lived up to their pre-season hype and they were a bit overvalued coming into the year, but now we feel the opposite is true. Getting them at home at -3.5 is a bargain in our opinion. We also feel that Iowa is now the overvalued team coming into this game with a 4-0 record. That sets this up perfectly to grab the Wolverines at home. These teams have played 2 common opponents at home (Rutgers & Middle Tennessee State) and both won easily. Let’s look strictly at the line in those 2 games so you can get a feel for the value we have with Michigan here. The Wolverines were favored by 36 points vs MTSU while Iowa was favored by 23. That tells us on a neutral field the oddsmakers felt Michigan would be a 13 point favorite. Michigan just played Rutgers last weekend and they were a 28 point favorite. Iowa played the Knights a few weeks ago and were laying 18. That tells us Michigan was 10-points better than Iowa on a neutral field. So if we split the difference were looking at Michigan -11.5 on a neutral. Even if we take the lower difference and then adjust it down a few points from there, at worst Michigan would be favored by 8 or 9 on a neutral field vs Iowa. You see where we are going here with the line value. People have had too big of an overreaction to the way Michigan lost @ Wisconsin a few weeks ago. We watched that entire game in person and then again on tape. It was just one of those games where Wisky played well, but also caught some breaks (4 Michigan turnovers) to get a big lead which changed Michigan’s entire game plan. Things spiraled out of control from there. The Wolverines are much better than they played in that game, yet this line doesn’t reflect that. Iowa is 4-0 on the season but they have played one team thus far with a pulse and that was Iowa State. It was a game the Hawkeyes were outgained by more than 100 yards, trailed for most of the game but rallied for an 18-17 win. In that game ISU averaged 7.7 yards per play while the Hawkeyes averaged 4.4 YPP. Iowa won the turnover battle 2 to 0 and they were very lucky to win. The other teams they’ve played this year have a combined record of 2-9 this year vs other FBS teams. They also have yet to leave the state of Iowa. In last week’s game vs Rutgers head coach Jim Harbaugh moved offensive coordinator Josh Gattis from the pressbox to the sidelines as he felt more face to face discussion with Gattis and his QB’s would help. It seemed to do so as QB Patterson had his best game of the year. Granted it was vs Rutgers but we feel this move will help the offense moving forward. Defensively we expect an extremely motivated Michigan unit after they were pushed around a few weeks ago by Wisconsin and have heard about it ever since. Iowa will bring a similar gameplan although they are not on the same level as Wisconsin at this point and the Wolverines are at home for this one rather than on the road. They won’t be caught off guard here. We like the match up for Michigan and feel Iowa is overrated right now. but most of all we love the value with this number as we discussed earlier. Michigan gets the win and cover at home.
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