09-16-17 |
Middle Tennessee State v. Minnesota -9 |
Top |
3-34 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 36 m |
Show
|
#134 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota (-) over Middle Tennessee, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Golden Gophers head coach PJ Fleck is winning at Minnesota just like he was at Western Michigan! In fact he now has a regular season winning streak of 15 straight games! All but 1 of those 15 games was a lined game. Fleck's ATS record in the 14 lined games is 10-4 / 71% ATS! Look for Fleck to make it 16 straight regular season wins here while also improving that ATS run to 11-4. The Golden Gophers have a bye week on deck so there will be no holding back this week. Minnesota is coming off of a blowout win at Oregon State and their ground game really got rolling against the Beavers. The Golden Gophers are now averaging 211 rushing yards per game on the young season and, on Saturday, they are hosting a Middle Tennessee State team that is averaging only 71.5 rushing yards per game. That certainly could be an issue for the Blue Raiders as their QB is banged up. MTSU QB Brent Stockstill is a key player but even if he plays this week he is unlikely to be 100% and with struggling to move the ball on the ground or through the air it will most certainly be a rough afternoon for Middle Tennessee. The Minnesota defense has been fantastic so far this season as they have held opponents to just 243.5 yards per game. The Golden Gophers are catching MTSU off of an upset win as a big road dog at Syracuse. That makes this a very tough spot for the Blue Raiders. The past 4 seasons Middle Tennessee had back to back games away from a home a total of 6 times. They NEVER covered both games any of those 6 times! With that said, coming off of the big cover against the Orange, look for the Blue Raiders to fall flat against the Golden Gophers! Lay the big points with Minnesota as this is an ideal spot for a home rout blowout!
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09-09-17 |
Boise State v. Washington State -10 |
Top |
44-47 |
Loss |
-110 |
33 h 39 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Boise State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #400
Boise State is not what they once were. Even in their own conference, which they used to absolutely annihilate, the Broncos are a surprising 4-5 in their last 9 games against teams from their division (Mountain Division) of the Mountain West Conference. That says a lot right here! What also says a lot about how this game might play out is that Washington State is still fuming mad about what happened at Boise State when they fell short by 3 points and the Cougars are ready to take advantage of a Broncos team that returns only 9 starters from last season. Washington State returns 14 starters plus the kicker/punter. The Cougars are strong in the trenches and they are ready to get very physical with the Broncos in this one. Also, Boise State is a different team when they're not on their home blue turf and Washington State is enjoying a scheduling quirk where each of their first 5 games this season is at home in Pullman! The Broncos are 0-4 ATS when off of a straight-up non-conference win. Though they dispatched of Troy (SunBelt team) last week, Boise State didn't overly impress as they turned the ball over a couple times and also allowed a lot of pressure on QB Rypien. He is still the starter this week even though he was sacked 4 times and threw a pick. The fact is that the offensive line is a weakness for Boise State and, in fact, their weakness is a strength for the Cougars as Washington State is solid in the trenches. That will prove to be a mismatch Saturday night and lead to the Broncos struggling to move the ball on offense and struggling to stop the Cougars when WSU is on the attack. Remember the Cougars did throw for 480 yards in last year's meeting. While both teams do have their conference openers on deck, Boise State has a short week to get ready for it as theirs is coming up Thursday. The situational edges, talent edges, experience edges, revenge factor all combined to add up to a blowout win here. Lay the big points with Washington State in late night action Saturday!
|
01-09-17 |
Clemson +7 v. Alabama |
Top |
35-31 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 40 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson Tigers (+) over Alabama Crimson Tide, Monday at 8:30 PM ET in Championship Game in Tampa, FL
Revenge can certainly be over-played or incorrectly played in sports betting. However, when the numbers support a big revenge spot it is always worth investigating further and we like what we see here! Not only are the Tigers looking for revenge after last year's loss to the Crimson Tide in the Championship Game, they appear to be peaking at the perfect time! Clemson comes into this game having gained 470 yards of offense in back to back games and 9 of their last 10. At the same time, the Tigers defense has strengthened as the season has gone on. Clemson has allowed an average of only 254 total yards per game in their last 4 games. Considering Alabama's offense just went through a change at offensive coordinator and have been held to 164 passing yards or less in 6 of its last 8 games, look for the Tigers front seven to be able to stack the box and slow down the running game of the Crimson Tide. Alabama's offense has been held to 33 points or less in 5 of their L7 games and Clemson has been a machine on offense with 42 points or more in 4 of its last 6 games. The Tigers passing attack averages over 100 yards more per game than that of the Crimson Tide. Alabama's non-covering win in the Championship Game last year was the 3rd straight time that Alabama's season has ended with a non-cover. We expect that streak to reach 4-0 here as Tigers QB DeShaun Watson and Company exact revenge in this one. With Clemson's blowout win over Ohio State last week, the Tigers have now covered 6 straight post-season games. We are forecasting a 7th straight cover for that streak here. Look for the outright upset but we'll grab the generous points with Clemson in this one.
|
01-02-17 |
Western Michigan v. Wisconsin -8.5 |
Top |
16-24 |
Loss |
-107 |
22 h 20 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Western Michigan Broncos, Monday at 1 PM ET in Cotton Bowl in Arlington, TX
The Broncos certainly deserve to be commended for their 13-0 season and they are well-coached with MAC Coach of the Year PJ Fleck leading the way. Also, Western Michigan did go 2-0 against Big Ten teams this season. However, the overall schedule that the Broncos faced is, of course, much weaker than the strong schedule the Badgers faced this season. Even the Big Ten teams that the Broncos faced were two of the lesser teams - Illinois and Northwestern. The Illini went 3-9 this season and the Wildcats started the season "out of sync" and also lost to Illinois State early this year. That puts that 1-point Broncos win in perspective. Western Michigan now faces one of the top teams in the Big Ten. Wisconsin went 10-2 in the regular season with their only losses to Michigan and Ohio State. Then, in the Big Ten Championship Game they led the Nittany Lions 28-7 late in the 2nd quarter. The eventual loss in the conference championship game has the Badgers defense completely amped up for this bowl game. They want to atone for their performance and the fact they are facing a 13-0 team in a January bowl game insures the proper focus from Wisconsin here. The Badgers defense allowed only 13 points per game in regulation time in their first 12 games of the season and never allowed more than 23 points in any game - Ohio State scored 7 in OT in the game at Madison. The point is that this defensive dominance, up until the loss to Penn State, came against much tougher competition than what the Broncos have faced this season. With the Badgers fired up to respond off of the loss, and very likely to hold Western Michigan to 14 points or less, the only question is can the Badgers score enough to cover here? We say, emphatically, yes! Wisconsin's offensive line outweighs the D-line of the Broncos by about 60 pounds per man and the Badgers are going to wear down Western Michigan as this game goes on. Look for the ground game of Wisconsin - averaged 259 rushing yards per game in their last 4 games - to be the difference as this game gets into the 3rd and 4th quarters. The Badgers will pound away on offense and continue their hot streak - averaged 40 points per game in their last 4 games of the season. Lay the points and look for a Badgers Blowout in this one.
|
12-29-16 |
Arkansas +7 v. Virginia Tech |
Top |
24-35 |
Loss |
-120 |
26 h 41 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY *10* ON Arkansas Razorbacks (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET in the Belk Bowl at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC
It is no secret that the underdogs have dominated so far in this bowl season and we see no reason for that to change in this particular match-up. To be able to get +7 in a game that truly has a great shot at being won outright by the underdog is what has us stepping up with a huge play in this match-up. The Razorbacks have been fantastic in their two bowls under head coach Bret Bielema and they didn't exactly face "cream puff" opponents either. Arkansas faced Texas two years ago and Kansas State last year and they won those two bowl games by a combined score of 76 to 30. Arkansas has had a few "hiccups" this season but one thing they have shown is the ability to bounce back off of a loss. In fact, that has been a strong trend under Bielema since the middle portion of last season. Many times a coach adjusting with a new team has his best season in year three and that was the case with Bielema. The first season tends to be a "lost" season, the second season is a "transition" season and then by the third season the team really starts to "click" as a cohesive unit. The Razorbacks improved their win totals each year under Bielema and from the middle point of last season until now, Arkansas has responded every single time off of a loss. Beginning with last season's 27-14 loss at Alabama, the Razorbacks have gone 6-0 SU (and 5-1 ATS) when off of a loss. With nearly 5 weeks to prepare for this game, Bielema will have his team ready and, in our opinion, Arkansas has the coaching edge in this match-up. While Bielema has been the head coach in many bowls (including his tenure at Wisconsin), Justin Fuente of the Hokies has only been a head coach for one bowl game in his career and that was with Memphis. Even though the Hokies have performed surprisingly well this season in Fuente's first season at head coach - following Beamer's retirement - Virginia Tech certainly wasn't dominating the opposition once they got into conference action. The Hokies big win at North Carolina was played during Hurricane Matthew and deserves an asterisk as a result. Since that early October game, the Hokies only went 5-3 and 3 of those victories came by only a field goal margin. You can see from those results that Virginia Tech would be on only a 2-6 ATS run if they were laying a full TD in each of their last 8 games. We feel this line is far too high as Arkansas certainly played a strong schedule just as the Hokies did and the Razorbacks stepped up big and won 4 games outright as an underdog! Also worth noting is that they were a double digit underdog in 2 of those big wins. The Razorbacks enter this game on an 8-3 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Also, when entering a game with 2 weeks or more of rest between games, Arkansas has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS. When off of a loss against an SEC foe, the Razorbacks have gone 11-2 ATS! Virginia Tech is on a 4-7 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. We expect the ground game of Arkansas to be a key in this match-up as the Razorbacks ran for 1,133 yards the 4 times they were off of a loss this season. In other words they get angry and pound it on the ground and we watched the Hokies struggle to stop the run game numerous times this season in match-ups with teams like Duke, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, and Notre Dame. All of those teams averaged at least 5 yards per carry in those games. While the Razorbacks defense has certainly given up their fair share of big gains and big yardage this season, they always seem to step up big off of a loss and they have a tendency to be a "bend but don't break" defense in those games. We look for more of the same here as the Razorbacks continue their amazing streak of bouncing back off of a loss. Grab the generous points with Arkansas as a Top Play in the Belk Bowl Thursday.
|
12-26-16 |
Miami (OH) v. Mississippi State -14 |
Top |
16-17 |
Loss |
-115 |
66 h 49 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State Bulldogs (-) over Miami-Ohio Redhawks, Monday at 11 AM ET in the St Petersburg Bowl
It is a bit ironic, isn't it? A 5-7 team is one of the biggest favorites this bowl season. How can that be? The fact is that it is because this game is a complete mismatch as an SEC team takes on a MAC team in a location that also favors the stronger SEC foe. The only question when it comes to laying this many points is as it relates to motivation and that concern is answered quite simply. The 5-7 Bulldogs did not have to accept a bowl invite. They could have packed it in and considered it simply a disappointing campaign and to say to themselves "just wait until next year". Instead, Mississippi State answered the call, quite literally, and now here they are with a chance to prove just how good this 5-7 team can be! The Bulldogs are led by head coach Mullen who has a 4-2 record in bowls and Mississippi State crushed NC State 51-28 in last year's bowls. This is the Redhawks first bowl since 2010 and head coach Martin will be coaching in his first bowl game. Though the Redhawks finished the year on a 6-game winning streak they of course played a very weak schedule. Miami-Ohio will prove to be no match for an SEC team that finished the season strong with a big win over Ole Miss in a game where they knew they needed a win to have any hopes of a bowl opportunity. The Bulldogs crushed the Rebels 55-20 as a double digit dog and they will continue to ride the momentum of that game right into this bowl opportunity. Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald took over for Dak Prescott this season and he has been great with 21 TD's against just 10 INT's on the season. Also, Fitzgerald netted over 1,200 yards on the ground with 14 rushing TDs and that ranks him as the top rushing QB in the SEC. We just don't see this MAC foe having the firepower to keep up with the Bulldogs here. Of course the defense of Mississippi State is their weakness but just think about the tough SEC foes that the Bulldogs have faced throughout the season. That said, the Dogs D should have no trouble stepping up against a MAC offense that is one of the weakest in the nation with only 23 points per game on the season and certainly we don't see that Miami-Ohio defense as being able to stop what is a "geared up" SEC offense. The Bulldogs can "name the score" in this one and, with a 5-7 "chip on their shoulders", we feel they will do just that and win this one by much more than just two touchdowns. Lay the big points with Mississippi State for a TOP PLAY in the St Petersburg Bowl early Monday!
|
12-03-16 |
Virginia Tech +11 v. Clemson |
Top |
35-42 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 18 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech Hokies (+) over Clemson Tigers, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET
A lot of pressure on Clemson here as they certainly have a playoff spot locked up with a win in this game. That is a lot of pressure for the Tigers considering their facing a tough match-up here. Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuente has only failed to cover the spread once in his last 8 games as an underdog. He also feels like even more of an "us against the world" underdog here since Fuente was passed up by Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney when he interviewed for the offensive coordinator spot 6 years ago. Outwardly there are no hard feelings but you can bet that Fuente wants this game badly and he certainly has done a fantastic job with the Hokies offense this season. That will be a key here because the Hokies defense has truly been just as solid as the Tigers have this season. The one game that "blew up" on the Hokies defense had a lot more to do with turnovers than the D as Virginia Tech allowed only 330 yards (but 45 points) against Tennessee. In the Hokies other 11 games this season they have allowed only 19 points per game! This is quite comparable to a Clemson defense that has given up an average of 17 points per game this season. The Tigers are off of a huge win over a weak South Carolina team and that is helping to inflate their point spread this week. Clemson had only covered 1 of their last 5 games prior to the blowout of the Gamecocks. Certainly Clemson is a fantastic team but they are again over-valued here and the Hokies have gone 3-0 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points the past 3 seasons and 21-11 ATS long-term in that price range. The Virginia Tech pass defense ranks among the top teams in the nation and will be a key to slowing down QB Watson and that will help to keep this game much closer than many are expecting. The most recent meeting between these teams was 2012 and the Tigers won that game as well as both games in 2011 (included the ACC Championship). The Hokies have their sights set on revenge in this one and, even if they do fall short, look for Fuente to have plenty of wrinkles in the offense to keep the Tigers solid D off-balance and this game is likely to be decided by just a single score when the dust settles. We'll grab the points with Virginia Tech for a TOP PLAY in the ACC Championship Game where we expect the highly motivated Hokies will stay within a TD Saturday as the Tigers are feeling all the playoff pressure in this one.
|
11-19-16 |
Oklahoma -3 v. West Virginia |
Top |
56-28 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 58 m |
Show
|
#341: ASA 10* TOP Oklahoma Sooners (-) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ 8 ET: Huge game in Big 12 action and we like the value here with Oklahoma only laying a small number since they're on the road for this one. The Sooners welcomed back RB Perine last week after he had missed most of the action the past 4 weeks. Perine and Mixon both had over 100 yards of rushing last week and that is a huge 1-2 punch to have when you also have Mayfield throwing for big plays all over the field. The Oklahoma quarterback had 300 yards of passing last week as he connected on 80% of his throws. The OU offense is going to provide a match-up issue for West Virginia just as it has in other recent meetings. The Sooners have defeated the Mountaineers each of the past 4 seasons and the last 3 meetings have been won by an average of 13.7 points per game with not a single victory by less than 9 points. Oklahoma has a bye week on deck so they're fully focused on remaining perfect in Big 12 action this week. West Virginia has the tougher scheduling situation as they keep going back and forth each week. They were in Texas to face the Red Raiders, then back home in Morgantown, then in Oklahoma to face the Cowboys, then back home to Morgantown, then in Texas again to face the Longhorns, and now back home again. So this is 6 straight weeks of nothing but travel for the Mountaineers and next week they head to Iowa to face the Cyclones before coming back home for their regular season finale. Even though West Virginia is 8-1 on the season, they faced a weaker non-conference schedule than the Sooners did. The only tough non-conference game that the Mountaineers had was a tight win over BYU where they were outgained by the Cougars. In their only tough conference game, West Virginia lost badly to Oklahoma State! As for the Sooners, though they are 8-2 on the season, their two losses were to Ohio State and Houston. The Buckeyes, of course, are one of the top teams in the country and the Cougars proved how good they are with not only beating OU but then rising up to beat Louisville soundly on Thursday! Oklahoma's 8 wins this season have all come by at least 5 points and we're comfortable laying the short number on the road here as OU is 12-1 SU (and 9-4 ATS) in road games the past 3 seasons combined. The Mountaineers were outgained by 153 yards at Texas last week and were very fortunate to get the win. West Virginia also turned the ball over 4 times against the Longhorns but Texas' mistakes helped West Virginia. The Mounties are unlikely to benefit from those types of mistakes this week as they have 8 turnovers in the past 3 weeks and the Sooners have a total of only 4 turnovers in the past 5 weeks. Ever since the loss to Ohio State the Sooners have looked like a team on a mission and we see that "mission" continuing to be executed Saturday night in Morgantown. Lay the short number with Oklahoma as a TOP PLAY in this one Saturday.
|
11-12-16 |
California v. Washington State -14.5 |
Top |
21-56 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 17 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over California Golden Bears Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #184
We used Washington State for a big top game over Stanford five weeks ago and the Cougars won the game outright by 26 as a 7 point dog. One of the keys we spoke of in looking at that game was the fact that the Cougars had not beaten the Cardinal during Mike Leach's tenure at Washington State and he wanted the game badly. This one sets up in similar fashion because, even though the Cougars have defeated the Golden Bears once in the 4 meetings since Leach took over in Pullman, they have lost each of the last two games and plus have lost both times they've hosted California. Leach doesn't forget things like this and he has revenge on his mind in a big way for this rematch. One of the keys to Leach's team this year is that they returned so much experience and these are all his recruits now so he's really built the team as he's wanted to. The offense (as is typical with Leach) is stellar this season but the big news has been a defense that continues to outperform the expectations of even the most optimistic Cougars followers. Washington State has truly put it all together this season and their defense has allowed 301 yards or less in 5 of their last 7 games. Look for the Cougars to do a good job of holding down a powerful Cal offense in this match-up. The key difference in comparing these teams is the defense as California is one of the worst defenses in the nation. The Bears have allowed an average of 528 yards and 44.4 points per game. Cal's porous defense is not going to be able to stop a Washington State offense led by QB Falk (28 passing TDs against only 5 INTs). The Cougars have averaged 49 points per game at home. The Washington State pass defense has improved as the season has gone on as they have allowed just 192 passing yards per game in their last 4 home games. Cal's D is going the opposite direction as they have allowed 52 points per game in their last 4 games while allowing an average of 302 passing yards per game in their last 3 games. This is a huge mismatch and California is on a 3-13 ATS run in games where they are a double digit underdog! The Cougars, after starting the season 0-2, have won 7 straight games and allowed only 21 points per game. Knowing how bad Cal's defense has been, there is no reason this game shouldn't end up being at least a 22 points margin, a 55-33 type game here, as Cougars haven't allowed more than 33 points in their last 7 games and Cal has allowed 55.5 points in their past two games - both blowout losses. We'll lay the points with Washington State for a TOP PLAY in a game we expect will turn into a blowout in the 2nd half!
|
11-05-16 |
Iowa v. Penn State -6 |
Top |
14-41 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #406
While it is true that Iowa does have a long winning streak on the road in regular season games, it is also true that the Hawkeyes have only gone 5-5 overall their last 10 games since starting last season 12-0. It is also true that Iowa is sorely missing their senior wide receiver, Matt VandeBerg, who is out with a foot injury. Even though the Hawkeyes have an excellent quarterback in C.J. Beathard, the trouble is that he's got a very inexperienced wide receiver group to throw to. That sets this game up as a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Hawkeyes had their big year last season (even though it ended in disappointment) and the fact is they never won more than 8 games in a season the five prior seasons. As for the Nittany Lions, they brought in new coordinators and a pair of new position coaches after the 2015 season. It took a little time for everyone to get on the same page this season but this is also head coach James Franklin's third year with Penn State and things have indeed come together. Penn State has won 4 straight games (including a win over Ohio State) and the Nittany Lions have averaged 38.3 points per game in those four victories. Penn State has won all 5 of their home games this season and, even though the Hawkeyes have won all 3 of their road games this season, a close look shows reason for concern as Iowa now faces the Nittany Lions in a night game at Beaver Stadium where Happy Valley will be rocking with a raucous atmosphere. The Hawkeyes only beat Rutgers (a team that is actually an embarrassment to the Big Ten) by a score of 14-7 and the Scarlet Knights actually outgained Iowa in that game. In their next road game Iowa only beat Minnesota by a 7 point margin as the Hawkeyes were held to 321 yards of offense in that game. Though the Hawkeyes did win big over Purdue (another bad Big Ten team), Iowa gave up 458 passing yards to the Boilermakers. Penn State has played a much tougher schedule than Iowa has as the Nittany Lions have had to do battle with teams like the Buckeyes and Michigan (each team undefeated other than Ohio State's loss to PSU). Two of Penn State's other Big Ten games included Purdue and Minnesota and the Nittany Lions obliterated them by a combined score of 100 to 38. As you can see, there is a big difference between the offensive firepower of these two teams. Iowa's inexperienced wide receiver corps continues to be a problem and Penn State is allowing only 3.9 yards per carry in home games so the run defense will force the Hawkeyes to try and beat the Nittany Lions through the air and we don't see that happening. Iowa has been held to 21 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. Penn State, excluding the Michigan game, has averaged 37 points per game in their other 7 games this season. Looking at the Nittany Lions last 4 games, their offense struggled at times against Ohio State but PSU averaged 502 yards per game in the other 3 games. The point is that this offense is clicking, this is a home night game, and this line is a very manageable number in a game that the Nittany Lions should win by a multiple TD margin. Penn State is on a 7-0 ATS run when they are a home favorite and off of a game where they covered the spread by more than 14 points. Filled with confidence after putting up 62 points in an easy cover at Purdue last week, the Nittany Lions offense keeps rolling this week. Iowa is off of their bye week but their loss at home against Wisconsin the prior week was very telling. Even though they were catching the Badgers off of back to back hard-fought games against Michigan and Ohio State, the Hawkweyes not only lost the game 17-9, they were outgained by 187 yards by Wisconsin! The final scored easily could have been much worse if the Badgers had executed better in the red zone. This final score, on the road and facing a red hot offense, will indeed be worse for Iowa. We'll lay the points with Penn State for a TOP PLAY in a game we expect will turn into a blowout in the 2nd half!
|
10-29-16 |
Nebraska v. Wisconsin -8 |
Top |
17-23 |
Loss |
-115 |
25 h 6 m |
Show
|
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin Badgers (-) over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #172
The Badgers are definitely battle tested having already played 4 Top 10 teams (at the time they played them) on the season. The teams that Wisconsin has played this season currently have a combined 23-6 record and two of those six losses came at the hands of these Badgers. They are off a nice win @ Iowa in a game Wisky dominated more than the final score indicated. Wisconsin outgained Iowa by nearly 200 yards but struggled in the red zone making the game closer than it should have been. The Badgers got inside Iowa’s 35 yard line on four of their first five drives and came away with only 7 points. The defense continued to dominate holding Iowa to 3.9 yards per play. A week before that they outplayed Ohio State in an OT loss here at Camp Randall. The atmosphere was electric for that game and you can expect the same here. The Badgers have 2 Big Ten losses, both by just a TD to Ohio State & Michigan, but have a ton still to play for. If they win out, they will almost assuredly win the Big Ten West and head to the Conference Championship game. They would need to beat the Huskers, which they would obviously do by running the table, and have Nebraska lose one more game. That will most likely happen next week when Nebraska travels to Ohio State. The defense continues to shine for Wisconsin. They have held their opponents to 128 fewer yards than what they are averaging against other foes. They lost leading tackler LB Cichy last week for the season but Wisky is loaded at the LB spot so no big dropoff is expected. Nebraska is undefeated yet they have played a VERY easy schedule. It could be argued their best win this season was at home vs Oregon. The Huskers won that game 35-32 in what looked like a solid win. However, the Ducks have proven to be WAY down this year and actually have lost 4 straight since that game. Nebraska’s Big Ten wins have come against Northwestern (when the Cats were playing poorly), Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue. Overall their 7 wins have come against teams that have a combined 20-30 record and only two of those teams, Wyoming & NW, currently are above.500. Last week they struggled with Purdue as the Boilers led at halftime in Lincoln. The Huskers only put up 157 yards on the ground against a Purdue defense that had allowed 300+ yards rushing in THREE STRAIGHT GAMES! This team will struggle to get anything going on the ground vs Wisconsin so keeping the game close will fall on QB Armstrong’s shoulders. He’s prone to making mistakes and we have a feeling he will do just that on Saturday with no ground game supporting him. Wisconsin has hammered Nebraska each time they’ve played in Camp Randall by final scores of 59-24, 70-31, and 48-17. The home crowd will be huge and we like the Badgers to roll again here.
|
10-22-16 |
Arkansas +10.5 v. Auburn |
Top |
3-56 |
Loss |
-104 |
24 h 52 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas Razorbacks (+) over Auburn Tigers Saturday at 6 PM ET: Game #401
Auburn is getting a lot of positive press right now as they've won 3 straight and it all started with the big win over LSU. That was the game that got Les Miles fired but, as impressive as that win may seem, the fact is that it was LSU's fourth straight ATS loss. The point is that LSU, with Miles, was overvalued. So now we take a look at who else Auburn has beaten. The Tigers other wins included victories over Arkansas State and Louisiana Monroe but those are two Sun Belt Conference teams that are a combined 4-8 on the season. Auburn's other win, and most recent, was over a Mississippi State team that is only 2-4 on the season and also is the worst team in the SEC West. Now, Auburn is off of a bye and over-confident after, arguably, having not beaten really anyone! LSU was not performing well at all under Miles so one could easily put an asterisk by that victory. The Tigers are in for a tough test with Arkansas coming in for a visit. While it is true that the Razorbacks schedule has been tough (some physical games recently) they do have a bye week on deck. That said, Bret Bielema's team, buoyed by the confidence-building win over Ole Miss (as a 10 point dog!) last week, is going to definitely "leave it all on the field" as they know they can worry about resting up after the game with the help of the upcoming bye week. Arkansas has proven time and time again to be a dangerous dog under Bielema. His first season in Arkansas, 2013, was an adjustment year but, since then, the Razorbacks won 7 games in 2014 and 8 games in 2015. The last 4 times they were a dog in 2015 they not only covered but they won 3 of the 4 games outright. This season, the Razorbacks have had outright wins over the Rebels and over TCU and they were a double digit dog in each game. Once again Arkansas is not being given enough respect here. Yes they lost by 19 to Alabama but the Crimson Tide are, of course, the #1 team in the country. As for the other Razorbacks loss, that came at Texas A & M, and the 45-24 final score doesn't tell the "full" story in that one. The Razorbacks, LATE in 3rd quarter, were getting ready to punch it in near the A & M goal line to go up 24-17. Unbelievably, they not only failed to do that but A & M got them to turn it over on downs and then the Aggies struck for a huge TD play of 90+ yards. Just like that, Arkansas entered the 4th quarter down 24-17 instead of up 24-17. Momentum can be huge in football and that was certainly a big momentum swing in that ball game. Arkansas has only two losses on the season and both were to undefeated teams (A & M and Alabama). They were on track to beat the Aggies on the road before things came unraveled. The Razorbacks have moved on from that game and getting that all important first SEC win last week versus Ole Miss has them fully confident they can get another before their bye week. Arkansas has Austin Allen at QB and he is leading the SEC in both passing yards (1,861) and TDs (18). What is most impressive about him is what he has done against some tougher competition while Auburn's Sean White has 5 passing TD's against Sun Belt teams and then only has had ONE passing TD in his other 4 games. Arkansas is on a 7-2 ATS run as a road dog. The Tigers defensive coordinator (Kevin Steele) was the DC at LSU last year when Bret Bielema's team put up 440 yards at LSU in a 31-17 win as a TD underdog! To put that in perspective, that was LSU's worst home loss since 2008. Look for Steele to again struggle to stop the dangerous Razorbacks offense as this Arkansas team has totaled 1,000 passing yards in their 3 games against Alabama, Texas A & M, and Ole Miss. That is impressive (to say the least!) and we expect the Razorbacks to absolutely be in this one all the way. Another outright upset would not be a complete surprise. We'll grab the generous points with the very dangerous road dog for a TOP PLAY in this one!
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10-15-16 |
Tulsa +21.5 v. Houston |
Top |
31-38 |
Win
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100 |
26 h 8 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) over Houston Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #159
The Cougars had their bubble burst in the loss at Navy last week. Of course Houston is saying all the right things in terms of not letting that impact them this week and going forward but the fact is that this was a very deflating loss. Houston's hopes of being a playoff team this season and going for the national championship went out the window with the loss to the Midshipmen. With the "hang over" effect of last week's loss, it would not be surprising to see the Cougars struggle to put away Tulsa this week. The Golden Hurricane have a high octane offense and they are led by a solid senior QB. Tulsa signal caller Dane Evans has already thrown for 1,135 yards this season and 9 touchdowns. The key to the value with grabbing the big points in this match-up is the fact that the Golden Hurricane are fully capable of trading scores with the Cougars. Houston had a huge win over an over-matched Texas State team earlier this season but their other 5 games have seen the Cougars score no more than 42 points in a game. That is significant here because Tulsa (other than a game where they faced one of the nation's best - Ohio State), has scored at least 43 points in each of their other 4 games. The point is that if this game plays out in a similar fashion to the way these two offenses have been producing points all season long, a 38-35 game would not be a surprise at all. The Cougars defense allowed over 300 yards on the ground to Navy last week and the Houston D previously allowed at least 273 yards through the air in each of their other three games against FBS foes (excluding Texas State as mentioned earlier). So against quality offenses, Houston has stopped no one this season. Tulsa is a very dangerous offense that can move the ball both through the air and on the ground and they are adjusting well in Philip Montgomery's second season as the head coach. Home field has not meant a lot in match-ups between these two teams as the road team has notched the straight-up win in 5 of the last 6 meetings! The only home win in recent seasons was decided by just 10 points when the Cougars (-19.5) won here in Houston two years ago and that was the 3rd straight home game in which they failed to cover when hosting Tulsa. Of course you can tell by the big O/U number (currently 73) on this game that a lot of points are expected to be scored. That is significant because Tulsa fares very well in games like this as they are 5-1 ATS in road games with a total of 70 points or more while Houston is only 1-3 ATS in home games with a total of 70 points or more. Look for the Golden Hurricane to hang tough throughout this game and a 1 TD loss (2 TD margin at most) is what we're forecasting here. We'll grab the generous points with the very dangerous road dog for a TOP PLAY in this one!
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10-08-16 |
Washington State +6.5 v. Stanford |
Top |
42-16 |
Win
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100 |
11 h 31 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #407
Cougars head coach Mike Leach is in his 5th year with Washington State. He undoubtedly has his best team yet as the Cougars returned 47 lettermen including 14 starters from last year's team. Leach has built this program now with the right personnel in the right places and they are stronger now on both sides of the ball than they have ever been in his tenure. This game is circled in red on Leach's calendar. The Cougars almost beat Stanford last season but fell short by a missed field goal in the two point loss. Not only that but the biggest key of all as to why this game means so much to the Cougars and to Leach is the fact that the Cardinal are the only Pac-12 team that he has yet to defeat during his tenure at Washington State. While the "Air Raid" offense will be able to fully execute on a clear, calm night with perfect weather conditions expected at Stanford, there are two other keys with this Cougars team that make them far superior to the Washington State teams that Stanford has faced in the past. The Cougars defense did improve last season (sizable improvement) but they also are even more improved this year. Washington State is starting to put it all together in their 2nd year under defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. Make no mistake about it the average yards allowed per game on the season may not be that impressive but the Cougars have faced some tough offenses and, in fact, Washington State has held their foes to 84 yards per game less than what those teams have averaged in their other games. Washington State started this season, just like last year, with a disappointing loss to an FCS foe. However, just like last season, they have responded and last week's 651 to 426 yardage edge in the Cougars 51 to 33 win over Oregon was their most complete game yet. We mentioned Washington State's improvement on defense being a key and the other key is that the running game has now gone for an average of 254 yards per game in their past two games. With defenses having to focus so much on the Air Raid offense, the ability of this team to now pick up huge yards on the ground makes Leach's offense even that much more dangerous. The Cougars are an incredible 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games against FBS foes and Washington State has thrived in the underdog role with a fantastic mark of 13-3 ATS their last 16 games as a road dog. While things are very quiet on the Cougars injury front (good news!), the Cardinal have issues on BOTH sides of the ball with injuries. Stanford is banged up off of their loss to Washington. While it may seem enticing to back Stanford off of a loss the fact is that the Cardinal are hurting both physically and psychologically off of that demoralizing 44-6 loss to the Huskies. Also, Stanford is on an 0-4 ATS run in their games that follow facing Washington. Additionally, when off of a loss by a double digit margin, the Cardinal track record is not good as they have actually gone 1-7 ATS when off of a loss by 10 points or more and in conference action. Everything is lined up perfect for this to finally be "the year" for Leach's Cougars and we expect an outright upset which makes this one a very strong play for us. We'll grab the generous points with the very dangerous road dog in this one!
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10-01-16 |
Utah v. California -2.5 |
Top |
23-28 |
Win
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100 |
45 h 46 m |
Show
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ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* California (-) over Utah, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET: Game #184
Nice spot here to grab the small home fave. Cal wants this game badly. Last season when these teams met, both of them were undefeated and the Golden Bears ended up on the wrong end of the scoreboard 30-24. That ended California's 5-0 start to the season and sent them into a tailspin where they lost 5 of 6 games. Cal hasn't forgotten about what happened last year and now they get a chance to return the favor as they host an undefeated and ranked Utah team. The Utes certainly are off to a strong start this season but they have played a weaker schedule than have the Bears. Also, Utah has been fortunate in a pair of tight wins as they defeated BYU by only a single point and the Utes had to rally last week to sneak by USC 31-27. The home team in the Utah/Cal series has won all 5 games and this is California's homecoming game. They are fired up for more reasons than one and the big edge they have will be through the air. Utah's defense gets a lot of positive press but they allowed 258.2 passing yards per game last season which ranked them 103rd in the country. This season they have not faced anything close to the passing attack they will face this week. California is averaging nearly 600 yards of offense per game and they get over 450 yards of that through the air. The Utes secondary is a major concern and the Golden Bears have thrived under QB Davis Webb. The transfer (from Texas Tech) has excelled in the offense installed by new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital and it certainly has shown in the insane numbers being put up from week to week. Cal is averaging 45.5 points per game so far this season and the Utes simply won't be able to keep up. Utah can't "trade scores" with the Golden Bears and Cal's strength on offense attacks the Utes weakness. Though California is only 2-2 on the season they outgained both foes they lost to. Certainly the Golden Bears defense is not their strength but Utah just doesn't have the explosiveness on offense to keep up in this one. Dating back to their win last season over Cal, the Utes have not scored more than 35 points in any of their last 13 games. California, dating back to last season, has scored at least 40 points in 7 of their last 8 games. The Golden Bears are 8-2 ATS in games where they are a home fave against a team with a winning percentage of .666 or better. The Utes come in undefeated but will leave with Cal having improved that ATS mark to 9-2. Expect a very strong effort here from California off of a loss and they get their revenge. A win by a double digit margin here would not be a surprise so we are happy to lay the small number in this one.
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