Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-09-21 | San Jose State v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 14-32 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
#346 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -3 over San Jose State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Big time red flags over the last month with this SJSU team. Their travel schedule has been brutal and it’s started to show. This will be their 4th road game in their last 5 games. Since September 4th they have played @ USC, @ Hawaii (long travel), @ Western Michigan (long travel), at home last week vs a terrible NM State team and now @ CSU who is coming off a bye week. In their most recent 3 games the Spartans did beat Hawaii 17-13 but they only gained 291 yards on 3.7 YPP vs a Rainbow defense that allows 5.4 YPP on the season (ranked 67th). SJSU then went to Western Michigan and got rolled 23-3 while getting outgained by 228 yards. Last week they played host to New Mexico State, one of the worst teams in college football, and won 37-31 and only outgained the Aggies by 19 yards. That’s an “almost” home loss to a NM State that that is 1-6 this season (only win vs an FCS team) and has won only 5 of their last 26 games. Starting QB Starkel didn’t play in that game and might not here. CSU has shown some solid growth over the last month beating a solid Toledo team on the road 22-6 and they followed that up with a tight 24-14 loss @ #3 Iowa, a game they led at halftime. The Rams outgained Toledo and were out yarded by just 28 total yards vs the Hawkeyes. This team is rested and headed in the right direction. Their opponent SJSU is not. Lay the small number in this one. |
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10-08-21 | Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 17 m | Show |
#307 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +29.5 over Cincinnati, Friday at 7 PM ET - This is a classic letdown spot for the Bearcats. They are coming off games vs Indiana & Notre Dame and they have UCF on deck. All off-season the talk was if this team can get by IU and the Irish they have a great shot at an undefeated season. Those 2 games were this teams “Super Bowls” so to speak and playing a home game as nearly a 30 point favorite after beating the Irish will be tough. The only other potential roadblock on their way to an undefeated season is probably UCF next week so focusing on Temple won’t be easy. The Owls are better than people might think. Their defense is very solid allowing just 313 YPG on 4.6 YPP. Last week they held a potent Memphis offense to just 5.8 YPP and the Tigers had just 385 total yards of offense entering their final offensive possession with 2:30 remaining in the game. Memphis scored with 30 seconds left to cut the Temple lead to 3 points but the Owls held on to win. The Temple offense struggled in mid September but much of that was because their starting QB Mathis (Georgia transfer) was out with an injury. He’s been back for their last 2 games and led the Owls to 72 points while passing for over 600 yards and 2 TD’s. Now we don’t expect him to put up those numbers vs Cincy but he’ll do enough to keep them within this huge number. This isn’t the same Temple team that was routed by Rutgers in the season opener. They are much better and that game was extremely misleading as well with the Owls turning the ball over 6 times in that game. Because of that, we are still getting line value with Temple who is now at full strength. These two AAC rivals last met in 2019 and Cincinnati was a 7.5 point home favorite and beat Temple 15-13. Now they are laying almost 30 points! Temple has covered 5 straight in this series and we think their defense is solid enough to not let the Bearcat offense go wild in this game. Their offense is also underrated and may not need to score many points to keep this within the number. Take the points with Temple. |
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10-02-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
#178 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -3.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Okie State has played the MUCH tougher schedule here and they are 4-0 on the season. 3 of their wins have come vs Tulsa (who played Ohio St to the wire on the road), @ Boise State, and last week at home vs KSU. We have been impressed with their progression the last few weeks. Starting QB Sanders missed the first game of the season, struggled a bit vs Tulsa and Boise, but hit his stride last week throwing for 344 yards at home in a 31-20 win over Kansas State. His top WR Martin returned after missing the last 2 games and had 9 catches for 100 yards. The OSU defense has been playing lights out allowing just 2.6 YPC and 4.5 YPP on the season. They have allowed just 123 yards rushing total in their last 2 games vs Boise & KSU (2 YPC). That will be a problem for a Baylor team that prefers to run the ball (41 rushing attempts per game). The Bears are undefeated, however their first 3 wins were vs Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Their win last week vs Iowa State at home was one of the more misleading finals of the season. ISU gained 480 yards on 6.6 YPP in the game. Baylor gained 282 total yards on 5.2 YPP. The Bears offense scored TD’s on their first 3 possessions of the game on 206 total yards. After that, they totaled 66 yards on 30 plays for barely 2 YPP. The Bears didn’t have to show much offensively in their first 3 games vs terrible opponents and they surprises the Cyclones with some new looks, plays, and wrinkles on offense. Once the ISU defense settled in Baylor did almost nothing. Their only points after the first 3 possessions came on a 98 yard kickoff return and a short FG after a long punt return. The favorite has covered 15 of the last 21 meetings and the home team has covered 13 of the last 19. We like OSU at home. |
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10-01-21 | Houston v. Tulsa -4.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 54 m | Show |
#106 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulsa -4.5 over Houston, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - There is a reason the team that sits with a 1-3 record is favored over the team that has a 3-1 record. Tulsa is at home for this one and they’ve played a very tough schedule to date including games @ Ohio State and @ Oklahoma State. In their 28-23 loss @ Oklahoma State they outgained the Cowboys in that game plus held their own in the trenches limiting them to just 3.3 YPC on the ground. OSU had a 99 yard kickoff return for TD in that game which was the difference. When the Golden Hurricanes traveled to Ohio State they more than held their own vs the Buckeyes rolling up 501 total yards to 508 for the Bucks. That game was tight throughout despite the final margin. Tulsa trailed by just a TD @ Ohio State with under 4:00 minutes remaining in the game. Last Saturday Tulsa was back at home and topped Arkansas State 41-34. It could have been much worse as they held a 17 point lead in the 3rd quarter but ASU scored 13 of the games final 16 points including a 98 yard kickoff return. The stats in the game were extremely lopsided with Tulsa gaining 663 yards to 359 for Arkansas State. Houston steps in with a 3-1 record but they’ve played an easy schedule compared to Tulsa. The Cougs have faced Grambling, Rice, Navy, and Texas Tech thus far. Take out the Grambling game and the 2 wins for Houston vs Rice & Navy were not all that impressive. Those 2 teams are 0-6 SU combined vs FBS teams this season and 5 of those losses were blowouts. The only one that was close was Houston’s 28-20 win over Navy last week. The one decent team the Cougars played, Texas Tech, rolled them by 17 points outgaining Houston by 125 yards. Despite the big difference in opposition this season, Tulsa has gained an average of 6.9 YPP and allowed 5.6 YPP for a differential of +1.3 YPP. Houston’s YPP differential is +0.6 YPP despite their easy slate thus far. These 2 most recently met here in 2019 and Houston topped Tulsa as a 7-point dog despite getting outgained by 150 yards. Some revenge is in order on Friday night. We like this Tulsa team and feel they are undervalued right now. Lay the points here. |
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09-25-21 | UTSA +3.5 v. Memphis | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
#387 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for the Tigers. They are coming off a HUGE home win over SEC Mississippi State and the week prior to that they beat rival Arkansas State 55-50. Last week’s 31-29 win over MSU was very deceiving. We were on Memphis so we picked up a win but if you would have shown us the final stats before the game was played, we would not have been on the Tigers. Memphis was -14 first downs and -222 yards in that win over Mississippi State. They had a 94-yard punt return and 49-yard fumble return both for TD’s. If they take UTSA lightly after last week’s big win, they will lose here. They may lose even if they play well. UTSA is a very solid, veteran team. They come into this game with a 3-0 record including a win @ Illinois in their other road game this season. Say what you will about the Illini, but in their other 2 home games they beat Nebraska and nearly beat Maryland so that was a very good road win for UTSA who had 497 total yards of offense in that game. Last week they Road Runners topped Middle Tennessee State by 14 points but it should have been much worse as they won the yardage battle by +253. Their senior QB Harris is one of the better “unknown” signal callers in the country, just ask Illinois. We have an edge at that position as the Memphis QB is a freshman that’s played in 3 games in his career. Dating back to last season UTSA has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming in their bowl game 31-24 vs a very good Louisiana team that finished last year 10-1. We’re getting the better team, getting points, in a better situation. Take Texas San Antonio. |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | Top | 37-17 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia -4 over Wake Forest, Friday at 7 PM ET - We love this spot at home for UVA. They are off an embarrassing 59-39 loss @ North Carolina last Saturday. It was the Cavs first loss of the year. They are taking on a Wake team that is 3-0 but they’ve played all home games and faced a very easy schedule thus far. The Deacs topped an FCS team and a bad FBS team (Old Dominion) to start the season and then thumped a reeling Florida State team last week. While FSU isn’t very good – they lost at home the previous week to Jacksonville State – it was still a big win for WF vs a name program. The Wake defense has put up great numbers this year holding their 3 opponents to a combined 40 points but the offenses they’ve faced have been nothing close to what they’ll see on Saturday. Minus their FCS opponent, they have faced Old Dominion (122nd in total offense) and FSU (68th in total offense). Worse yet, those 2 teams aren’t adept at moving the ball through the air (ODU 118th in passing offense / FSU 84th in passing offense) and now they face a UVA team that leads the nation averaging 488 YPG through the air. The Cavs also rank 3rd in total offense and 11th in YPP offense. Wake’s defense takes a huge step up in competition on Saturday. UVA just saw one of the top offenses in the nation (UNC) last week and didn’t fare well but you can bet they’ll make adjustments this week and this will be a step down in competition for the Cavaliers. This is a game Virginia has been waiting for after losing 40-23 at Wake last year (Wake as a 2-point favorite). The yardage in the game was very close but the Cavs had 3 turnovers (0 for Wake), missed a FG, and were shut out on downs inside the WF 10-yard line. They had their chances to say the least. They haven’t been able to host WF since 2012 so it’s been almost a decade since they’ve had a shot at the Deacs here at home. Virginia has won 18 of their last 20 home games and only 3 of those 18 wins have come by less than a TD. Lay it. |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati -3.5 v. Indiana | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -3.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - After finishing with a solid 6-2 record but we felt they were due for a regression this year. The benefitted from a +8 turnover margin last year, they were outgained on the year despite their winning record, beat only 1 team that ended last year with a winning record, and their QB isn’t anywhere near 100%. Michael Penix is just 8 months removed from a 2nd ACL tear on the same knee. Our word from IU is that he is probably only 80% at best. You can see it in his play. His legs were a big part of his success at QB and he isn’t comfortable running yet this season. He’s very uncomfortable in the pocket with pressure, which is understandable, but that does not lead to success throwing the ball. He’s barely averaging 4.0 yards per pass attempt which means IU has become a dink and dunk offense. Their running game has been poor averaging 2.5 YPC vs Iowa and 3.6 YPC vs a bad Idaho team. That means in order to beat Cincy, most likely Penix will need a huge game and we just don’t see it. The Bearcats defensive front is every bit as good as Iowa’s who put constant pressure on Penix and held the Hoosiers to just 6 points. They bounced back after that loss and beat Idaho but not nearly as impressive as the score indicated. IU averaged just 4.8 YPP vs the Vandals and had 2 special teams TD’s in the game. Cincy was one of the best teams in the nation last year going 9-1 with their only loss coming by 3-points vs Georgia in the Peach Bowl. They return many key players from a great defense that allowed 16 PPG and just 4.6 YPP. They also bring back one of the better QB’s in the country as Desmond Ridder threw for 2,300 yards, 19 TD’s and rushed for almost 800 more. The Bearcats have won their first two games by a combined score of 91-21. That includes a 49-14 win over Miami Oh in week one and the Redhawks turned around and nearly won at Minnesota the following week showing how impressive that Cincinnati win was. We’re laying points on the road here but Cincinnati is the much better overall team at this time. Once Penix gets back to 100%, the Hoosiers will be much better but he’s nowhere near that right now. Lay it. |
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09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
#377 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +7 over Michigan, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a pure value play on Washington. This line prior to last week’s games was Michigan -1 or -1.5. Now because Michigan beat Western Michigan handily and Washington was upset by an FCS team, this number moved through -3, -4, and -6 (three key numbers) and onto another key number -7. That’s simply too much of an overreaction after one week. Washington look poor last week no way around that. They turned the ball over 3 times and didn’t create a single turnover. The Huskies tallied just 291 total yards in their 13-7 loss vs Montana. UW had 11 more first downs, won the overall yardage & time of possession battle and the defense held the Grizzlies to 3.4 yards per play. They were flat and turnovers (-3) decided the game. We expect Washington to rally big time this week as they are now backed into a corner so to speak off that loss. The defense has a chance to be elite. Michigan ran the ball at will last week vs a small MAC defensive front but that won’t happen this week. Wolverine starting QB McNamara only completed 9 passes and didn’t have to do much to get this win. He’s still fairly inexperienced and will have to do much more here to get this win vs a big step up in competition. That was made much more difficult with Michigan WR Bell (top offensive player on the team) was injured last week and is now out for the season. The Wolverine defense was OK last week but WMU did get into Michigan territory 6 times and came away with only 14 points. Washington has not been an underdog of 7 or more points since 2016. This team had an energetic week of practice after their upset loss and they will be ready here. This one will be close. Take the points. |
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09-04-21 | Utah State +17 v. Washington State | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State +17 over Washington State, Saturday at 11 PM ET - We expect USU to be drastically improved this year. This team was a train wreck last year and it was mainly due their leadership at the top. Former HC Gary Andersen was terrible. He quit at Wisconsin to take the Oregon State job. He then quit partway through the season on OSU and ended up back at Utah State where he was before he took the Badger job. USU was a rudderless ship last year and the players tanked the season to say the least. The players were so distraught they opted to not even play their final game of the season. They have since hired former Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson who was extremely successfully at ASU with a 51-37 record including 6 bowl appearances. He brought a few players with him from Arkie State including his starting QB Bonner who along with last year’s USU starter Peasley gives the Aggies a decent QB room. Word from Logan, Utah is the players love their new coach and have an entirely different attitude entering this season. They are experienced with 19 starters back and Anderson brought in a number of key Power 5 transfers from programs like Michigan, Texas, Georgia Tech, and Kansas who will contribute. This is a play against WSU as well. It’s really tough to lay 17 points with a defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone over the last few seasons. The Cougs allowed 38 PPG last season (1-3 overall record) and 32 PPG in 2019. They allowed 450+ YPG in both of those seasons. 2nd year head coach Rolovich came from Hawaii and he likes to run an up tempo offense trying to outscore opponents but last year they averaged just 27 PPG. Utah State should be able to put points on the board in this game and Washington State will have a tough time running away with this. Take the big points with USU. |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 63 h 36 m | Show |
#153 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State +3.5 over Northwestern, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - Our power ratings have MSU as a small favorite in this game so we feel the value is on Sparty. They had a rough season last year with a 2-5 record, however it was their first year under new HC Tucker and we expect some solid improvement with a full year in both the offensive and defensive system. They return almost all of their key offensive players including an OLine that has combined to make 147 career starts which is the 4th most nationally. MSU upgrades at QB where they struggled greatly last year by adding Temple transfer Anthony Russo who had over 6,000 yards passing and 44 TD’s in his Temple career. The Spartans running game was poor last year but that should also improve greatly with a steady offensive line and Wake Forest transfer Walker starting at RB. Northwestern lost as much experience as any team in the country. They surprised many by winning the Big 10 West last year but bring back only 8 starters. The Cats lost their starting QB, most of their offensive line, and their top 4 pass catchers. Defensively they lost many of their key contributors including their top corner (to the NFL), top 2 pass rushers, and top 2 LB’s. Hunter Johnson was named the starting QB of the inexperienced offense and that’s not a good thing for NW. He was handed the job in 2019 and proceeded to complete just 46% of his passes, threw just 1 TD, and led an offense that averaged 14 PPG in his 6 starts. Their only win with Johnson at the helm was vs UNLV and he battled again for the job last year and did not play a single down during the season. Now he’s back as the starter. Not good. MSU had a down year in 2020, while NW won the Big 10 West yet in their only meeting a season ago the Spartans topped the Cats 29-20. It wasn’t a fluke as MSU outgained Northwestern by almost 100 yards and dominated in the trenches with 195 yards rushing while holding the Cats to 63. Now we expect a big improvement from Michigan State while Northwestern takes a big step back. No reason to believe MSU won’t win again this year taking that into consideration. NW has very little home field advantage with a 9-9 SU record here the last 3 season (very few fans, small stadium that is often overrun by opposing fans). Take the points with Michigan State |
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09-02-21 | South Florida v. NC State -18 | Top | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
#142 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State -18 over South Florida, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We like NC State to be a surprise team in the ACC. We rate them as the 2nd best team in the Atlantic Division behind Clemson. The Wolfpack are coming off an 8-4 season and 2 of those losses were by 3 points or less. They are one of the more experienced teams in the nation with 20 starters returning. Not only that, they have 28 players we’d consider “starters” due to the number of minutes they’ve played even when not starting. Their QB Leary played last year but was banged up for much of the season and he is back healthy. They have a solid and experienced offensive line, they bring back all of their top RB’s and WR’s and their defense returns it’s top 12 tacklers from last year. USF is in rebuilding mode in HC Jeff Scott’s 2nd year. The Bulls were decimated by Covid last year (as many teams were) and finished 1-8 with their only win coming vs the Citadel. 5 of their 8 losses came by at least 20 points. Since the start of the 2019 season this team has won only 5 games and 2 of those 5 wins were vs non FBS opponents (the Citadel & South Carolina St). They have a new starting QB Fortin who threw only 8 passes in last year’s injury riddled season. The offense topped 4.5 yards per play only 3 times in 8 games vs FBS teams last year and breaking in a new QB they will probably struggle early in the year. The Bulls defense was poor last year to say the least allowing 40 PPG on 441 YPG including getting whipped up front giving up 212 YPG rushing. They put zero pressure on the opposing QB netting just 7 sacks the entire season – only Navy & Arizona had fewer. USF has played 3 Power 5 teams the last 2 seasons (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, & Georgia Tech) and they’ve lose those games by an average score of 38-3. This is a bad first match up for this team and we expect a 20+ point win for NC State. |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 510 h 30 m | Show |
#300 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +7 over Nebraska, Saturday, August 28th at 12:00 PM ET - There is always a lot of optimism in Huskerland entering every season, however the results have not matched the “fan” expectations. This team is favored by a full TD, on the road in their Big 10 opener yet they are just 9-17 SU overall in conference play under head coach Scott Frost. They have won just 4 conference games by more than 7 points in the last 3 years. We believe they are overvalued entering the season (as per usual) and their opponent in game 1 we feel is a bit undervalued right now. The Illini had a rough 2-6 season last year but they were decimated at QB pushing all the way down to their 4th stringer due to injury/illness. This year they expect senior Brandon Peters, former Michigan starter, to have a big season and we agree. He’s operating behind a very solid, veteran offensive line that could turn out to be one of the better units in the conference. The defense returns 16 of their top 18 tacklers and new head coach Bret Bielema knows defense and likes what he sees on that side of the ball. Up front they should be vastly improved defensively with their entire DLine coming back, all upperclassmen, and a few key LB’s back in the line up that were injured last season. They should be able to limit a Nebraska running game that relies too heavily on QB Martinez (leading rusher last year). The Huskers don’t have a single RB returning that rushed from more than 75 yards the entire 2020 season. That means Nebraska may have to have a big day through the air to win this one and we simply don’t trust QB Adrian Martinez who finished 12th in the Big 10 averaging only 150 YPG passing last year. Despite their struggles last season, the Illini were able to waltz into Lincoln and whip the Huskers 41-23 on nearly 500 yards of total offense. The year before Nebraska went to Illinois and barely escaped with a 42-38 win. We expect Illinois to have a solid shot at winning this game at home and getting a TD is generous. Bielema and his new staff have pretty much given the fans and media no access to practices so Nebraska will be guessing a bit when it comes to what Illinois will be doing on both sides of the ball here. Take the points. |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
#496 ASA PLAY ON Iowa State -3.5 over Oregon, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The Big 12 has shown themselves very well thus far with Oklahoma rolling over Florida, Oklahoma State topping Miami, and Texas crushing Colorado (WVU won as well). The Pac 12 has had just one game and that was the blowout we just mentioned. The Buffs were a near perfect 4-1 in Pac 12 play this year and they took on a depleted Texas team, with a number of starters opted out, in the Alamo Bowl and lost 55-23. Iowa State played those teams (Texas & Oklahoma) to the wire this year beating OU by 7 and Texas by 3 in the regular season and then losing to OU by 6 in the Big 12 Championship game. Their only other Big 12 loss this season was by a FG to Oklahoma State. Thus, there 2 conference losses came against bowl teams who both won their bowl games (OU in blowout fashion) by a combined 9 points (they did lose to another bowl team UL Lafayette in the season opener way back in early Sept). Their 8 Big 12 wins came by an average of +18.3 PPG. They are rolling on both sides of the ball right now. On offense the Cyclones have put up at least 435 yards of total offense in 5 of their last 6 games. They actually outgained Oklahoma in their Conference Championship loss but had 3 turnovers. They have also averaged 37 PPG during that stretch. On defense they’ve held their last 6 opponents to an average of just 17.6 PPG. While ISU was obviously disappointed to lose in the Big 12 Championship game, we’re hearing they are thrilled to be playing in the Fiesta Bowl, which is the most prestigious bowl this program has ever played in. Oregon was supposed to be the top team in the weak Pac 12 this year but that wasn’t the case. They did beat USC in the Pac 12 Championship game but the Ducks weren’t even supposed to be in that game. They backed in when Washington, the Pac 12 North Champs, weren’t able to field enough players due to a covid outbreak. Even though they beat the Trojans to win the conference, Oregon was outgained by 115 yards in that game and scored their first 2 TD’s on drives of 9 and 32 yards following USC turnovers. Two of their other three wins were vs teams that finished the season below .500. Their 2 losses were vs Oregon State (finished with a 2-5 record) and California (finished with a 1-4 record). Oregon played a weak schedule and their season stats weren’t overly impressive with a +20 YPG differential. Compare that to Iowa State, who played a much tougher schedule, and had a YPG differential of +97. ISU is better in the trenches running the ball for 192 YPG while allowing only 105 on the ground. The Cyclones are also better at the key position on the field, quarterback. ISU QB Purdy is finishing up his 3rd year as the starter and has thrown for nearly 9,000 yards and 61 TD’s. Oregon starter Shough is fairly inexperienced as this is his first year as a starter and he’s not a great passer. We also like the coaching match up here as ISU’s Campbell is FAR superior to the Ducks Cristobal. We like Iowa State to win this game by double digits. |
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12-31-20 | Ball State v. San Jose State -9 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -9 over Ball State, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET - This SJSU team has flown under the radar the entire season. They are a perfect 7-0 and are seeking their first undefeated season since 1939. Just two seasons ago this team was 1-11. They are HIGHLY motivated to close out with an undefeated season and we expect to see the Spartans at their best on Thursday. If they are at their best, this team is much better than Ball State. All 7 of SJSU’s wins this year have come by double digits including a 14 point win over a very good Boise State team in the MWC Championship game. The Spartans outgained the Broncos by 240 yards in that game! For the season they outgained their opponents by more than 100 YPG and by a full 2 yards per play (6.9 YPP offense & 4.9 YPP defense) in the much tougher MWC (compared to the MAC). QB Starkel, who played at both Arkansas & Texas A&M, was a grad transfer who led this offense with over 300 YPG passing. The Spartans have one of the most potent passing attacks in the country which is bad news for a Ball State defense that allowed 296 YPG through the air (119th nationally). The 2 best pass offenses the Cardinals faced this season were Western Michigan & Toledo and those 2 teams put up 275 yards passing & 2 TD’s and 407 yards passing & 3 TD’s in those 2 games respectively. Ball State, on the other hand, relies heavily on their running game (45 carries per game but only 3.9 YPC) and they are facing an SJSU defense that gives up only 3.3 YPC. The 2 best rushing attacks they faced this season were Air Force (2nd nationally) & San Diego State (32nd nationally). They held the Falcons to 206 yards rushing (100 yards below their average) and the Aztecs to 101 yards rushing (99 yards below their average). Ball State ranks 53rd nationally running the ball and they’ll be without, by far, their best RB here (Caleb Huntley) who opted out after rushing for just under 3,000 yards in his career. This Spartan defense did not allow more than 24 points in a game this season and we like them to really slow down this Ball State attack. The Cards already won their “Super Bowl” so to speak by beating Buffalo in the MAC Championship game despite getting outgained 7.0 YPP to 5.5 YPP. Ball State was outgained 6.1 YPP to 5.8 YPP on the season despite playing an easier schedule than San Jose who was +2.0 YPP as we mentioned above. The MAC has been historically bad in bowl games with an 18-35-2 ATS record their last 55 as bowl underdogs. Ball State is also historically bad in bowl games going 0-7 SU lifetime with 5 of those 7 losses coming by at least 9 points. This game is being played out west in Arizona which is a definite positive for San Jose State. The Cardinal players are just happy to get away from the cold and snow in this vacation type game. We’ll lay the points with San Jose State as we expect the Spartans to roll in this game. |
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12-29-20 | Colorado +8.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-55 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
#297 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado +8.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - We know Colorado is thrilled to be in the Alamo Bowl. We’re not so sure Texas can say the same. Once again the Longhorns had much higher aspirations and fell short of their goals with a 6-3 record. They blew out a poor KSU team to end the season and might be taking this one lightly or have little interest at all. The Horns have had a number of opt outs for this game including top WR Eagles, starting LT Cosmi, starting C Kerstetter, starting DE Ossai, starting DT Graham, and starting safeties Sterns & Brown. That doesn’t sound like a team that cares all that much about this game. There is still talk about whether HC Herman is the right man for the program after underachieving during his tenure and he now has former players chiming in on his lack of coaching acumen. Just not a great overall situation to close out the season for Texas. The Buffs were a surprise this year under new head coach Dorrell. They are 4-1 SU & ATS and by all indications the players love their new head coach. They won 2 games outright as an underdog and Dorrell has been fantastic as an underdog covering 12 of his last 13 when getting points dating back to his HC days at UCLA. Their only loss this season was vs Utah in their season finale, a game Colorado actually led 21-10 in the 3rd quarter. They outgained and outrushed 4 of their 5 opponents this season. Their offense should thrive here vs a Texas defense that allowed 410 YPG and is without many of their top players as mentioned above. Even in their blowout win over KSU to close out the season, the Horns gave up 448 total yards to a Wildcat offense that ranks 106th in total offense. We’re confident that CU will stay in this game throughout and we’re getting more than a TD as a cushion. Take the points. |
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12-26-20 | Western Kentucky v. Georgia State -3.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -3.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Conference USA has proven to be a dud on the bowls thus far. They are currently 0-4 getting outscored by a whopping 85 points in those 4 games. When the Sun Belt has faced off vs CUSA in the bowl games thus far, the Belt is 2-0 with Georgia Southern beating La Tech 38-3 & App State beating North Texas 56-28. That’s relevant because we have Georgia State (from the Sun Belt) facing Western Kentucky (from CUSA) in this game. Western Kentucky has one of the worst offenses in college football ranking 120th in total offense, 111th in passing offense, 99th in rushing offense, and 115th in scoring. There’s been some chatter about their offense coming to life in easy wins over Charlotte & FIU, who have a 2-9 combined record, but what looks like a scoring outburst from the Hilltoppers wasn’t so much as they scored 4 defensive TD’s in those 2 games combined. The fact is, this team has scored a grand total of 19 offensive TD’s in 11 games this year. That’s it. They are facing a Georgia State team that averaged 33 PPG on the season and WKY’s highest offensive output the entire season was just 24 points (minus defensive TD’s). While Western Kentucky’s defense has solid numbers on the year, this is a bad match up for them. The strength of their defense is on the back end as they defend the pass very well. Their rush defense allows 166 YPG and they are facing a GSU offense that loves to run (43 carries per game for 190 yards). The Georgia State defensive numbers aren’t great but they really played well down the stretch allowing just 18 PPG over their last 3 games which included match ups with App State (GSU lost 17-13) and Georgia Southern (State won 30-24) who both won their bowl games already in blowout fashion. State is solid vs the run which matches up well with a WKY that likes to run (but isn’t great at it averaging 3.9 YPC) but it not a good passing team. Georgia State has already proven to be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt taking App State & Louisiana, the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the league, to the wire in tight losses and beating Georgia Southern. The only team they weren’t competitive with was Coastal Carolina who is ranked 12th in the country with an 11-0 record. As we mentioned the Sun Belt has walloped CUSA in their 2 meetings thus far and we have no reason to believe Georgia State can’t cover this small number on Saturday. |
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12-23-20 | Georgia Southern -6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
#273 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Southern -6 over Louisiana Tech, Wednesday at 3:00 PM ET - We can take quite a bit from Monday’s bowl match up between App State & North Texas and apply it to this game. App State dominated that game rushing for over 500 yards in a 56-28 win. What does that have to do with this game? Well Georgia Southern plays in Sun Belt along with App State and La Tech plays in CUSA along with North Texas. Southern faced App State on the road in the final game of the regular season and gave them all they could handle. They actually led in the 4th quarter and were outgained by only 32 yards. La Tech played North Texas on December 3rd and while they won by 11 points, the Bulldogs were outgained both on a YPP and YPG basis. That’s the same UNT team that App State outgained 11.3 YPP to 5.2 YPP on Monday. UNT ran 95 offensive snaps to just 56 for App State and STILL lost by 4 TD’s. Ga Southern runs a unique triple option scheme on offense that is tough to prepare for. The Eagles rank 7th nationally in rushing at 262 YPG. La Tech is not a strong run defense ranking 88th so GSU should control the line of scrimmage here. The Eagles starting QB Werts was out the last 2 games, including their down to the wire loss @ App State, but has been practicing a most likely will play here. Even if not, the starter will be senior Moseley who has plenty of experience in this offense. Speaking of offense, La Tech is a wreck on that side of the ball. They rank 113th nationally in total offense and they will be without their starting QB Anthony here who was lost to a season ending injury in their regular season finale. His back up Allen only attempted 97 passes this season and this team can’t run the ball (97 YPG rushing) which will put more pressure on the QB to make plays. Tech has a 5-4 record on the season but they were outgained on a YPP basis in every game this year (minus Houston Baptist). They average only 4.1 YPP in their 8 games vs FBS opponents and will struggle to keep up here. Georgia Southern wins the trenches on both sides of the ball here and a team that can do that normally comes out on top. Lay it with Georgia Southern. |
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12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State -21 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* App State -21 over North Texas, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - App State is the FAR superior team here and they are motivated. This is a senior laden squad that is looking for their 5th straight bowl win. The seniors have addressed the team wanting to make sure they go 4-0 in their careers in bowl games. Football Outsiders has App State is ranked as 28th best team and UNT 122nd (out of 130). Our numbers concur with that. App State is by far the best team North Texas has played this season. SMU is next best ranked 44th and they beat UNT by 30. The Mean Green also lost to the 95th ranked team (UTSA) by 32 and the 116th ranked team (Charlotte) by 28. North Texas had one of the better offenses in the country this year, however they played a horrible slate of defenses. App State will be by far the best defense they’ve faced this year. They will also be short handed as their #1 offensive weapon, WR Darden who accounted for nearly half of their receiving yards this season and scored 19 TD’s, tops in the nation. They will also be minus one of their 2 QB’s which is significant as they’ve rotated throughout the year and their missing QB, Aune, is their best passer. UNT horrible defensively especially vs the run (243 rushing YPG allowed) and App St a very good running team (243 rushing YPG). They give up 41 PPG on the season. They have allowed at least 40 points vs 6 of their 8 FBS opponents this season. They won’t stop App State in this game. With their offense not a full strength and facing the best defense they’ve seen, we don’t expect UNT to put up a ton of points here. While App State is going for their 6th straight bowl win, the Mean Green are 1-5 their last 6 bowl appearances and their most recent post-season appearance was a 52-13 loss in the 2018 New Mexico Bowl. This one has blowout potential. |
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12-19-20 | Illinois v. Penn State -15 | Top | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
#214 ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State -15 over Illinois, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET Two teams definitely headed in opposite directions here. PSU has saved their season after starting 0-5 they have now rebounded to win 3 straight. Word out of Happy Valley is they are now having fun and excited to be playing and you can see it in their performance. Illinois, on the other hand, just got trounced by their in-state rival Northwestern and fired their coach this week. Now they have to go on the road and try to muster up the energy to play in a meaningless game with a lame duck interim coach. This is a very tough spot for the Illini. The Illinois defense is bad ranking dead last in the Big 10 in total defense, 13th in rush defense, and their pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete 70% of their passes, the worst in the league. Last Saturday they allowed Northwestern to roll up 411 yards rushing. The Cats aren’t a great running team as they were averaging only 3.1 YPC entering last week. PSU’s offense has come alive during their 3 game winning streak averaging 30 PPG over those 3 and now they face the worst defense they’ve seen this year. The Nittany Lions are much better than their record. They were a top 10 team to start the season. They’ve outgained every team this year with the exception of Ohio State & Iowa. This team is 3-5 but they rank 2nd in the Big 10 in total offense and 4th in total defense. They can be vulnerable at times defending the pass, however Illinois is the worst passing team in the conference both on a YPG basis (180 YPG) and on a completion percentage basis (just 48%). On top of that, their best WR opted out this week and won’t play in this game. The records here are similar but there is really a pretty wide gap between these two. ON the season PSU has a +76 YPG differential and Illinois is -91 YPG. Just comparing these two alone, PSU is +51 YPG on offense and +116 YPG defensively. If Illinois gets down in this game, which we feel they will, we have a feeling this could get ugly. |
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12-18-20 | Oregon +3.5 v. USC | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon +3.5 over USC, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a classic underrated vs overrated spot in our opinion. Entering the season our research told us that Oregon was the best team in the Pac 12. We weren’t the only ones who shared that opinion as many other handicappers we respect felt the same way. Oregon lost 2 games along the way to their current 3-2 record. Both games were tight losses by 4 & 3 points and the Ducks had the ball late in the 4th quarter in each with a chance to win. What would this line be if Oregon had one both of those game which they certainly could have? In their most recent 21-17 loss @ Cal, the Ducks outgained the Bears by nearly 100 yards and had the ball in Cal territory in 3 of their last 4 possessions with a shot to win. Those possessions ended in 2 fumbles and a shut out on downs at the Bear 18 yard line. Speaking of fumbles, that has been a problem for the Ducks as they are -11 on the season, in just 5 games yet the STILL have a winning record. The Trojans are the exact opposite for us. They are very solid, but not as good as their 5-0 record. They’ve had to make 3 fourth quarter comebacks to get to their 5 wins. Last week vs arch rival UCLA, they trailed by 18 points made another late comeback scoring a TD with 16 seconds remaining in the game to win by 5. As long as Oregon doesn’t turn the ball over a bunch, we think USC’s luck runs out here. In fact, of the Ducks can keep this TO margin even, we have no doubt they’ll win this game. For the season the 3-2 Ducks are +47 YPG and +1.6 YPP. USC, vs a very similar schedule with 2 common opponents, is +35 YPG and only +0.1 YPP. Speaking of those common opponents this is where we see the value in this line with Oregon as a dog. They both played UCLA with Oregon favored by 18.5 in that game at home and USC favored by 3 at home. They both played Washington State with Oregon favored by 10.5 on the road and USC favored by 11 at home. Should Oregon actually be favored in this game. We wouldn’t disagree if that was the case. Take Oregon to win the Pac 12 Championship on Friday Night. |
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12-12-20 | Stanford v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
#124 ASA CFB TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State +3 over Stanford, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This is simply a terrible situation for Stanford. They are playing their 3rd straight road game and they haven’t even been home period since last Tuesday, Dec 1st. Santa Clara county announced that contact sports would be put on hold starting November 30th and lasting until at least December 21st. Because of that, the only way Stanford can play or practice was to leave the area. Last Tuesday they made their way to Seattle, stayed in a hotel, practiced where they could and then played Washington on Saturday. The Cardinal were able to pull together and pick up a huge upset beating the Huskies 31-26 as a 13 point underdog. That was just a week after they beat arch rival Cal 24-23. So now Stanford is off back to back huge wins and on the road again vs a team they probably will have trouble getting excited about, Oregon State. On top of that, Stanford traveled straight from Seattle to Corvallis, has been living in a hotel again this week preparing for this game and they are now a road favorite. Not ideal to say the least. OSU is underrated in our opinion. Two weeks ago they upset Oregon here 41-38 putting up 260 yards on the ground. Top RB Jefferson 226 yards. A week earlier they beat Cal here at home with Jefferson rushing for 196 yards vs a very good Golden Bear defense. After their big win over the Ducks, OSU traveled to Utah short handed missing a number of players due to covid including RB Jefferson. Starting QB Gebbia who was injured vs Oregon and is out for the season. Despite being shorthanded, they played a solid Utah team to the wire losing 30-24. Back up QB Nolan got his feet wet last week and played pretty well @ Utah throwing for 200 yards and rushing for 36. The Beavers get RB Jefferson back here along with some other key players who were out last week. They should be able to run the ball very well on this Stanford defense that ranks 100th nationally stopping the run. Bad spot for Stanford vs a undervalued OSU team. Take the points. |
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12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -12.5 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin -12.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line opened with Wisconsin -11 and that was before IU knew their starting QB Penix was out for the season. Once that was announced this line jumped to -14 and we don’t think it’s enough. Penix is worth much more than 3 points to this team. He was a huge reason their offense was able to top 30 points in 4 of their first 6 games. He led the Big 10 in passing yards and has accounted for 16 of IU’s 24 TD’s this season. The best 2 teams IU played this season were PSU which they beat on OT 36-35 despite getting outgained by almost 300 yards. Then their game @ OSU was on the way to being a blowout with the Buckeyes up 35-7 when Penix went wild and threw for almost 500 yards and 5 TD’s to bring the Hoosiers back in that game. Without Penix, we have no doubt they lose vs PSU (who now has only 1 win on the season) and they get destroyed by OSU. What makes him even more important to this offense is the fact that Indiana can’t run the ball. They put up good numbers on the ground last week vs Maryland, who ranks 116th in rush defense, but prior to that they were averaging 73 YPG on the ground. That puts huge pressure on the QB to make plays and Penix was up to the task. Now they start Jack Tuttle who has 16 career pass attempts. On top of that they face a Wisconsin defense that is outstanding. The Badgers rank #1 nationally in total defense, #3 in rush defense, and #3 in pass defense. IU will not be able to run the ball in this game. Tuttle will have to have the game of his life to keep the Hoosiers in this one. We don’t see that happening. Wisconsin is fresh for this one. They had last week’s game vs Minnesota cancelled. HC Chryst mentioned his team was able to heal up with the week off after their loss @ Northwestern. In that game Wisconsin lost 17-7 but their were +5 first downs, +103 total yards, +112 rushing yards, and +15 minute time of possession. Problem is they had 5 turnovers which is unlike a Wisconsin team. They also played that game with both starting WR’s out and they were down to playing a freshman and 2 senior walk ons. Because of that, QB Mertz was out of synch with his receivers from the beginning and tried to force a few things which led to turnovers. The Badger defense held Northwestern to just 3.4 YPP in that loss and the Cats rushed the ball 23 times for 24 yards. Again, IU will not have success on the ground in this game. With the Badgers coming off a disappointing loss, with extra time to prepare, getting healthy (WR Davis is the only question mark on offense), and facing a team with an inexperienced QB we love this situation. On top of that, while the Badgers are rested and healthy, this will be Indiana’s 7th straight week without a break. We don’t think Wisconsin will have to score much to cover this number. With the total set at 45.5, the projected score is right around 30-16. We think the Badger offense gets rolling here and scores at least that while we would not be at all surprised if Indiana scores less than 14 points. Wisconsin has won 10 straight in this series and we think they take another here by more than 2 TD’s. |
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11-28-20 | Rutgers v. Purdue -11 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
#194 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -11 over Rutgers, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We love this situation for the Boilers. They have lost 2 straight vs Northwestern & Minnesota so this is a very important home game for them. Last week’s loss @ Minnesota was the infamous invisible offensive pass interference game. Purdue scored a TD with under 1:00 remaining that seemingly gave them the win. However, a terrible offensive pass interference was called taking away the TD and Purdue threw an interception on the next play in their 34-31 loss. That game was on Friday which gave them an extra day to get ready for this must win game. The Boilermakers outgained Minnesota by 100 yards in the game & had 8 more first downs in the loss. We really liked what we saw from QB Plummer as he threw for 367 yards and 3 TD’s. He was replacing O’Connell who was the starter (out with injury) however we don’t consider Plummer a back up. He started 7 games a year ago and was in a neck & neck battle with O’Connell for this year’s starting job. We expect another big game from him vs a leaky Rutgers pass defense that ranks 95th nationally allowing 265 YPG through the air. Another huge addition for Purdue last week was WR Moore who was back in the line up for the first time this year. He is their best offensive weapon and accounted for 136 total yards last week. Purdue’s offense will put plenty of points on the board here vs a Rutgers defense that has allowed 37 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Rutgers had a crushing home defeat last week. They faced a Michigan team that obviously is not nearly as good as they’ve been in the past, but they still have the name recognition so it was a huge game for Rutgers. They jumped out to a 17-0 lead, then went down 35-27 late in the game, had to score a TD + 2 point conversion with under 1:00 minute remaining to send the game to OT. On top of that, the Scarlet Knights then missed a FG in OT that would have given them the win and they wound up losing in 3 OT’s. Now they have to go on the road and we just don’t see them playing well here after last week’s situation. Plus, while they are improved, they still only have 1 win vs Michigan State (Sparty turned the ball over 7 times in that game) and they’ve been outgained in every game. Even with their improvement, this Rutgers team ranks 91st nationally in total offense and 92nd in total defense. This is a bad match up for them vs a Purdue team that is now at full strength on offense and is flying under the radar right now. Rutgers has been a terrible road team with a 2-19 SU record their last 21 away from home and 17 of those losses have come by double digits. We also like the line value here. We have Purdue as 14 point favorite in our power ratings. Last week Michigan was favored by this same number (-11) @ Rutgers and Purdue is better than Michigan this yet only laying -11 here. Take the Boilermakers as this game has blowout potential. |
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11-27-20 | Iowa State +1.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
#143 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State Cyclones (+) over Texas Longhorns, Friday at 12:00 PM ET - Texas has covered 4 straight games in this series and the Longhorns are at home here and very little separates these teams in the rankings and yet the line is a pick'em! This is even though the last time these teams met in Austin (just two years ago), UT won the game by two touchdowns and won the yardage battle by nearly 200 yards. That was then, this is now, and the Cyclones are positioned well here. Iowa State has won 6 of their last 7 games and the only loss in that stretch was a tight 24-21 defeat. The Cyclones will take advantage of a Texas team playing for the first time in 3 weeks. A scheduled bye week for the Longhorns was followed by a postponement last week as UT's game versus Kansas was pushed back to the end of the season. A break is good but not when it is too much of a break. Remember that the Longhorns also did not have a game in mid-October either. That means this game, near the very end of November, was preceded by just 3 games for UT since the 11th of October! The Longhorns were a favorite in this game when the line first popped up and though the line is moving toward a pick'em, it is worth mentioning that the Horns have a strong tendency to not perform as well at home under coach Herman. In fact, the Longhorns have covered only 3 of their last 13 as a home favorite! Iowa State has plenty of confidence entering this game as they have exploded for an average of 45 points per game during their current 3-game winning streak. QB Brock Purdy and the Cyclones will take advantage of a Texas pass defense allowing over 300 passing yards per game in its last 4 games. Though the Horns run defense has been solid, Iowa State running back Breece Hall is leading the nation in rushing with nearly 1,200 yards on the ground plus he has run for 15 touchdowns already this season. Hall is a big reason the Cyclones offensive attack is so balanced and they will give the UT defense trouble in this one. As for the Iowa State defense, they have held their last 5 opponents to an average of only 297 yards per game. Texas has been the SU winner in 7 of the last 8 meetings in Austin but there is a reason the line on this game is set the way it is. Though Iowa State did win against the Longhorns last season, they certainly have been reminded of how their last visit to Austin played out. Per our computer math model, all signs point to the Cyclones getting some payback here for an ugly performance in their most recent visit to UT. This one is set up for a big road win and Iowa State is the play here. |
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11-20-20 | New Mexico v. Air Force -7 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Air Force Falcons (-) over New Mexico Lobos, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - This line opened up at double digits and, as of Thursday afternoon, is down to a -7 on the Falcons. We like the line value here with a move that we fully understand here but absolutely disagree with. Part of the reason for the move is Rocky Long is the defensive coordinator for New Mexico and he has, in his pedigree, a history of stopping option teams. However, he doesn't have the personnel this season to do it. Three of the key components to properly stopping an option attack are game-planning, talent, and execution. Long can game-plan all he wants but he still has to have the proper personnel and disciplined players to go out and execute and this is a bad Lobos defense. So far this season they have not given up much on the ground but that's simply because teams know they can throw all over them. In other words it does not necessarily mean that New Mexico is built to stop the run, it just means that when a team is allowing 410.3 passing yards per game why not throw against them? That is the type of defense we're talking about here...a very bad one! The Lobos have lost all 3 of their games this season and each of the last two seasons they were beaten badly in their match-ups with Air Force. The Falcons won those games by an average margin of 20 points per game. Also, AF averaged 345.5 yards per game on the ground and 236 yards through the air. The Falcons enter this game off back to back losses but had over 400 yards rushing in their most recent game and that was against a tough Boise State team! Now Air Force enters well-rested as they have had some covid issues result in postponements in recent weeks. They will be ready to go here and just like in their season opener against Navy (we had the Falcons in that blowout win of 40-7) when everyone doubts Air Force they seem to be at their best. Look for them to take advantage of a Lobos offense likely to again be without QB Tevaka Tuioti (doubtful - concussion) and that means we likely again see Trae Hall under center. Hall has a 0-2 TD-INT ratio this season and has been sacked 4 times in just about 40 dropbacks to pass plus he has not had success running the ball. He also completes only about 50% of his passes. On the other side of the ball, again Long just doesn't have the guys to be a successful defense. This team lost nearly every starter from last year's defense and they are especially thin up front. New Mexico has been playing their games in, and practicing in, Vegas due to covid issues in New Mexico. Air Force has been at home and hungry to get back on the field after the Falcons lost at home against Boise State 3 weeks ago. The Falcons have extra rest while the Lobos are playing a 4th straight week and the AF ground game will eventually wear them down. The Falcons roll in this one. This one has the makings of a home blowout and we're laying the points with Air Force. |
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11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan +1.5 | Top | 52-44 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Western Michigan Broncos, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #314 |
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11-14-20 | Hawaii v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
#192 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON San Diego State Aztecs (-) over Hawaii Warriors, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - Situations don't get much better than this. The Aztecs just lost at home by a double digit margin even though they were a double digit favorite versus San Jose State! Undoubtedly, there will be extra focus from San Diego State this week at home after what happened right here last week. Not only that, after beating the Warriors 6 straight times both SU and ATS in MWC action, Hawaii has beaten the Aztecs each of the past two seasons including once as a huge underdog. So this is a double revenge spot for San Diego State and they are catching the Warriors at the perfect time to exact that revenge. Hawaii is off of a home win over New Mexico but they allowed 33 points to the Lobos and NM is not only one of the worst teams in the MAC but one of the worst in the nation for FBS programs! The Warriors now are on the road again - for the 3rd time in 4 weeks! - while the Aztecs are back home for a 2nd straight week. The scheduling edge and situational edge here both are huge factors. Additionally, Hawaii has allowed an average of 32 points per game their past two games and allowed 31.9 points per game last season. San Diego State allowed only 12.7 points per game last season and, before getting upset by the Spartans and allowing 28 points last week, the Aztecs allowed 7 points or less in EACH of their first two games. Huge defensive edge to the home team in this one including allowing just 233 yards per game this season while the Warriors are allowing 433 yards per game! The Aztecs also are outgaining Hawaii on the offensive side (452 to 429) and, per our computer math model, San Diego State pulls away as this one goes on. This one has all the right ingredients for a blowout home win and we're laying the points with San Diego State |
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11-13-20 | Iowa -3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Iowa -3.5 over Minnesota, Friday at 7:00 PM ET Iowa picked up their first win of the season last Saturday but they are much better than a 1-2 team. They’ve actually outgained all 3 of their opponents and they are +1.1 YPP differential on the season which is very solid. They’ve led all 3 games in the 4th quarter as well. The Hawks finally put it all together last week in a dominating 49-7 win over Michigan State. The defense, which has played very well this season, held MSU to just 10 first downs and only 59 yards rushing (Iowa had 226 yards on the ground). That defense is getting 2 key players back this week including starting LB Campbell who will now split time at the position helping their depth. Minnesota’s defense played much better last week but we’re not falling for it. The first 2 games they were terrible allowing 94 points on more than 9.0 YPP. So why did they look so much better last week? They played an Illinois team that has had a number of key players out with Covid and their QB position is in disarray as they were down to their 4th string QB Taylor who only completed 6 passes the entire game. This defense still stinks and even with last week’s performance they are allowing 8.2 YPP which is the worst in college football. They have the same 1-2 record as Iowa but the Gophers YPP differential is -2.0 which is a full 3 yard difference PER PLAY when compared to Iowa’s YPP differential numbers which we discussed earlier. The Gophers leaned heavy on their running game last week with 325 yards vs a terrible Illinois defense but they won’t get that luxury this week facing a Hawkeye defense that is allowing just 2.6 YPC this season. On the flip side, Iowa ran the ball very well last week and should continue vs a Minnesota defense that allows 7.3 YPC. This should keep the Iowa offense very balanced in this game which is bad news for an already terrible Gopher defense. On the other side this will be the best defense that Minnesota has faced this season. They’ve faced 2 terrible stop units (Maryland & Illinois) and a Michigan defense that has proven to be not so good thus far. The defensive difference in this game is enormous so we’re siding with Iowa to win and cover on the road. |
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11-11-20 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois +8 | Top | 40-10 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
#116 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Northern Illinois Huskies (+) over Central Michigan Chippewas, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Central Michigan is off a tight win at home but they were helped by a pair of Ohio University turnovers. Also, the Bobcats simply aren't on the level with the Buffalo team that Northern Illinois had to face last week. In fact, heading into the season many had Buffalo pegged as the best team in the MAC this season. That said, even though the Huskies lost ugly on the scoreboard against the Bulls there are a couple of important factors to note. One is that it was a big-time revenge game for Buffalo. Another is that Northern Illinois was done in by turnovers in that game as too many fumbles were the difference in that one. In fact the Huskies actually outgained the Bulls and had 26 first downs compared to just 14 for Buffalo. Now Northern Illinois is in the 2nd of back to back home games and will certainly take better care of the ball in this one. Central Michigan is being over-valued as this line opened up at a 6 but has moved up past the -7 mark as of Tuesday evening. The Chippewas are getting too much respect here. Even if QB David Moore returned from his suspension for this one it would be his first live game action in a full year. If Central Michigan is again without Moore, most likely, it will be a redshirt freshman Daniel Richardson making his first ever road start at QB. This will be much tougher on Richardson in comparison with playing at home last week. The Huskies also have revenge on their minds here as they got blasted at Central Michigan last season. The last time the Chippewas visited Northern Illinois the Chips lost by a 24-16 margin. Per our computer math model this game has high probability that it will be a game decided by a single possession which means great value with the Huskies available in the +7.5 range for this one. This one has potential for a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with Northern Illinois |
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11-07-20 | Oklahoma State -12 v. Kansas State | Top | 20-18 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
#375 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -12 over Kansas State, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - One of the most misleading finals on the board last Saturday was OSU’s loss to Texas. In that 41-34 OT loss, OSU was +15 first downs, outgained the Longhorns 530 to 287 but had 4 turnovers (Texas had 0) which led to directly to half of UT’s points. In the first half alone, Texas scored 20 points and 13 of those came on 17 total yards of offense (a 15-yard TD drive, a 5-yard drive that ended in a FG, and a -3 yard drive that ended in a FG). Texas also scored on a 100-yard kickoff return in the 2nd half. The Horns came into the game averaging 490 YPG on offense so the OSU defense, which is really good this year, held them 200 yards below their average. The Cowboys rank 14th nationally in total defense and they’ve held every opponent this year below their season average in YPG. The only defense in the Big 12 that is ranked ahead of them (slightly) is West Virginia and the Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 points and 225 total yards in their 37-10 win last Saturday. KSU will have all sorts of problems with this Oklahoma State defense as well. The Cats lost starting QB Thompson for the season a few weeks ago. His replacement Will Howard is a freshman with very little experience. Howard has now started 3 games and if you subtract KSU’s game vs Kansas who stinks, they have scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s with him under center. The Wildcats 4-2 record doesn’t look bad but the fact is they are getting outgained by almost 100 YPG and they’ve been outgained by every team they’ve faced this year with the exception of Kansas. That includes Arkansas State who upset KSU 35-31. The Cats do have a signature win over Oklahoma this year which might be keeping them overvalued but they were beaten badly in the stat sheet in that game as well with the exception of turnovers (Oklahoma had 4 / KSU had 0). They also trailed by 21 in that game but had senior QB Thompson in the line up to help with the comeback. The Cowboys offense has averaged 35 PPG over their last 3 games and they received a big boost when starting QB Sanders returned two weeks ago vs Iowa State. He has thrown for over 600 yards and 5 TD’s in his 2 games since returning. He and the OSU offense should have a field day vs a Kansas State defense that is allowing 437 YPG ranking them 78th in total defense out of 113. Last week they allowed WVU to roll up almost 500 yards and tally 37 points. We don’t think Kansas State will be able to keep up here. The Cowboys have rebounded well off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record off their last 8 defeats and they want to rebound from last week’s disappointing loss as they head into a bye week. Lay it as this has the makings of an easy win for Oklahoma State. |
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10-31-20 | Ole Miss -17.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 54-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss Rebels (-) over Vanderbilt, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #185 |
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10-24-20 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +10 | Top | 45-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
#318 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Pittsburgh +10 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - In our opinion, Notre Dame is vastly overvalued at this point of the season due to their perfect 4-0 record. However, they haven’t beaten a single team that currently has a winning record and the combined record of the 4 teams they’ve played is 5-16. Last week they played host to Louisville, who in our power ratings is the best team the Irish have faced, and ND escaped with a 12-7 win. The Irish were held to just 4.9 YPP vs a Louisville team that ranks 32nd nationally in total defense (out of 77). The Notre Dame offense struggled with the Cards last week and now face, by far, the best defense they’ve seen this year as Pitt ranks 7th nationally in total defense. On top of that, ND relies heavily on their running game averaging 45 carries per game (12th most in the country) and Pitt’s defense ranks #1 in the nation in rush defense allowing only 61 YPG. The Panthers are much better than their 3-3 record. They’ve lost 3 straight games by a combined 14 points. Last week they played @ Miami and lost 31-19 but the yardage was close (Pitt outgained by 30 yards) and the defense played very well holding a potent Cane offense to just 331 total yards. Miami did score 31 points but 3 of their TD drives started on Pittsburgh’s half of the field due to turnovers and the Panthers getting shut out on downs. They might be without starting QB Pickett again this week (although he has not been ruled out) but his backup Yellen got his feet wet last week throwing for 277 yards vs Miami. We have Pitt rated about dead even with Louisville so this will be the best team the Irish have played (along with the Cards) AND their first road game of the season. These two programs have faced off 12 times since 2002 with the margin of victory being 8 or less in 10 of those games. Pitt will give Notre Dame all they can handle here and we grab the generous points siding with the home dog. |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette -7 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #170 |
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10-10-20 | Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -117 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Auburn -13.5 over Arkansas, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET Well Arkansas finally did it. They broke their 20 game SEC losing streak last week by upsetting Mississippi State 21-14 as a 16.5 point underdog. A couple of quick points about that game. First of all, they caught MSU off a monumental upset @ LSU so no doubt the Bulldogs weren’t completely focused on the Razorbacks who last won an SEC game in 2017 and that win was by just 1 point! Secondly, Arkansas was very fortunate to win last week as they were dominated in the stat sheet. The Bulldogs were +7 first downs and outgained the Razors 400 to 275. The problem for MSU was their FOUR turnovers. The first one set the tone for the upset as Arky returned a pick 6 just a few minutes into the game to take a 7-0 lead. Not only did the Dogs cough it up 4 times, they were also shut out on downs twice deep inside Arkansas territory at the 13 & 7 yard line. The Dogs also lost their top RB Hill (1350 yards last year) in the first quarter to an injury. Needless to say, a lot of things had to fall into place for Arky to pick up their first win in conference play in nearly 3 years and that’s exactly what happened. Now they are on the road again this week facing an extra motivated Auburn team. That’s because after beating a very solid Kentucky team here in week 1 by a final of 29-13, they were dominated @ Georgia last week. They went into the game as a 7.5 point dog and felt they could pull the upset. Didn’t happen as the Dawgs pushed them around which we look at as a wake up call for the Tigers. After the game Auburn head coach Malzahn stated, “We really got whipped in all 3 phases. We got outcoached.” We’re pretty sure this Auburn team will be more than ready this week. You can also count on them trying to put as many points on the board as possible. We don’t think there will be any backing off with a lead here coming off a loss and the fact that Auburn’s new OC Morris was the head coach at Arkansas last year and got canned. He’ll be motivated as well. This situation looks very similar to the last few seasons when Auburn was coming off a tough loss and pasted Arkansas the following week. Last year the Tigers lost at Florida and then beat the Razorbacks 51-10 just one week later. In 2018, they were coming off a tight 1-point loss vs LSU and proceeded to pound Arkansas 34-3 the following Saturday. The Razors are happy to be 1-1 but their offense will have big problems here vs a top notch Auburn defense. Arkansas currently averages just 277 YPG which ranks 70th out of 74 current teams playing & 15.5 PPG which includes last week’s pick 6. If you take that away, the offense has scored just 24 points in 2 games this year. We love the value here as well. We have this game power rated at Auburn -17.5. We could argue it should be even higher. These teams both played UGA and Arkansas was +27.5 at home while Auburn was +7.5 on the road. Just based on that alone, with no home field factored in whatsoever, it tells us Auburn should be a 20 point favorite on a neutral field. The weather calls for some rain, however the winds shouldn’t be bad at 10-12 MPH. We like Auburn to roll up a big home win on Saturday and getting this under 2 TD’s is a steal. |
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10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
#123 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Oklahoma -7 over Iowa State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We are well aware that recent meetings between these teams have been close games. However, this line was in the double digit range and has dropped to a -7 and we feel we have exceptional line value here with Oklahoma primed for a blowout win. Last season's match-up between these teams was decided by a single point but the Sooners led that game 42-21 late and they won't make the same mistake this season. Yes, the Sooners are off an upset loss to Kansas State but OU had a 4-0 turnover deficit in the game. The Sooners actually had 28 first downs compared to only 10 for the Wildcats and yet they lost the game outright. This is helping to give us great line value this week with Oklahoma. The Sooners piled up 517 yards of offense in that game and now take on an Iowa State team that just allowed 499 yards at TCU last week. The Cyclones tight win over the Horned Frogs had a lot to do with a 2-1 turnover edge and the Frogs had 10 penalties compared to just 3 for Iowa State. The Cyclones also lost their season opener to UL Lafayette by 17 points. In that game they barely eclipsed the 300 yard mark in terms of total offense. The fact is that highly regarded Cyclones QB Brock Purdy hasn't been overly impressive so far this season as his completion percentage is down from the 2 prior seasons and he has thrown for an average of just 178 yards per game. Keep in mind last season Purdy threw for nearly 4,000 yards. The Cyclones simply won't be able to score enough here to keep up with an angry Sooners team that has a dangerous offensive attack and won't be able to be stopped in this one. Lay it! This will be a road rout for Oklahoma |
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09-26-20 | Tennessee v. South Carolina +4 | Top | 31-27 | Push | 0 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
#406 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON South Carolina +4 over Tennessee, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Tennessee comes into this game with a lot of high expectations placed on them coming into the season. The Volunteers, including their 1-point win in the Gator Bowl over Indiana, have won 6 straight games and are ranked 16th in the nation entering this contest. That 6-game winning streak started with a big home win over South Carolina last season. However, South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp entered that contest having beaten Tennessee 7 straight times and that sets up this home dog revenge situation perfectly for the Gamecocks. South Carolina is flying under the radar a bit early this season because they are known for solid, physical defensive play but Muschamp's teams also are known for struggling to put many points on the board. That should change this season. We like the fact that new offensive coordinator, Mike Bobo (former head coach at Colorado State) has former Rams QB Collin Hill to work with. He is a graduate transfer and won the starting job from Ryan Hilinski. Of course Hill knows Bobo's offense well and that will allow the Gamecocks revamped offense to hit the ground running with Bobo's play-calling and Hill's leadership as a veteran with experience in this offense. Hill's college career started in 2016 at Colorado State so he has a lot of experience under his belt! Last year's match-up between these teams saw the Gamecocks lead 21-17 at the half but they were on the road at Tennessee and playing with an anemic offense and watched the Volunteers outscore them 24-0 the rest of the way. This match-up will play out much differently. Of course the ranked (and hyped) Vols are attracting attention from the marketplace but they also have had issues leading up to this game because of covid-19 cases. This has resulted in Tennessee not being able to have consistently scheduled practices. Now they go on the road playing right into the teeth of revenge and there is a very positive atmosphere right now in South Carolina as the team seems rejuvenated with the change at offensive coordinator. The Gamecocks also have stability on the other side of the ball with Travaris Robinson continuing as the defensive coordinator - a role he was hired for in December 2015 - and he has plenty of experience working with Muschamp. Upset alert in this one! We like South Carolina plus the points here. |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest +1 v. NC State | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Wake Forest +1 over NC State, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a great set up for Wake in our opinion. The Deacons were whipped last week vs Clemson losing 37-13 to what might just be the best team in the country. Now they take a huge step down in competition facing an NC State team that finished 1-7 in ACC play last season getting outscored by 159 points in the process (average ACC loss was by 20 points). While WF was getting a game under their best vs Clemson, the Wolfpack still have yet to play. On top of that, they’ve had a number of Covid outbreak interruptions which has limited their already shortened practice time. They were supposed to open their season 2 weeks ago vs Virginia Tech but that game had to be rescheduled September 26th. That’s not a great situation for a team that struggled last year and is trying to learn new systems on both offense and defense as both coordinators are new this year. The entire NC State coaching staff has pretty much been revamped over the last 2 year which disrupts continuity. Just 1 assistant remains on staff from the 2018 season. While NCSU’s coaching staff has had to go through massive changes, WF head coach Dave Clawson has turned this program from a doormat into a winning program. He took a perennial loser and has now led them to 4 straight winning season. Coaching edge is definitely with Wake in this game. NC State QB Leary returns after starting 6 games last year but we’re not so sure that’s a positive. He completed just 48% of his passes and was 0-6 in those starts losing by an average score of 41-16. When Leary faced off against Wake last year, he struggled to say the least completing just 17 of his 45 pass attempts with the Deacs winning 44-10. He now must face basically that same defense with Wake returning 9 starters on that side of the ball. The Demon Deacons have now won 3 straight in this series including 2 years ago here in Raleigh when they were heavy underdogs. The Pack was favored 3 times at home in ACC games last year and lost 2 of those games outright. Going back to the previous season NCSU has actually lost outright 3 of the last 4 times they’ve been a home ACC favorite. No fans in the stands here takes away any home field advantage NC State may have had. We think Wake is the better team, in the better situation, with no long travel (schools are 100 miles apart), and should be favored here. We’ll gladly take the points with the better team with a game already under their belt. |
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09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina +7 v. Kansas | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
#403 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Coastal Carolina +7 over Kansas, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Coastal went into Kansas last year and upset the Jayhawks 12-7 as a TD underdog. While some may think KU will have extra motivation here after that loss, they are simply not good enough to be laying a full TD in this or really any game. Last year was no fluke. The Chanticleers played KU toe to toe and actually had more first downs, more total yardage, and nearly a 10 minute time of possession edge. They return 14 starters this year including many key players and we expect them to be better this season than they were last. Their record last year was just 5-7, however they lost 4 of those 7 games by 7 points or less so they could have easily had a better season. They ran the ball very well last year (35th nationally) and return 4 starters on the OLine along with top RB Marable who ran for 148 yards vs Kansas and over 1,000 on the season. We expect more of the same this year vs a Jayhawk defense that ranked 124th vs the run last year allowing 225 YPG. Kansas lost their QB, 3 starting offensive lineman, their 3 top defensive lineman and their best cover corner and 2 starting safeties. Their defense last year gave up at least 31 points in 8 of their 12 games and now with a number of new faces it’s tough to see a drastic improvement if any. The offense may take some time to gel as well as the QB’s vying for the starting job have attempted a grand total of 19 passes combined in their careers. Lastly, and something we see as a big but overlooked situation is the fact that CC was able to get in ALL 15 of their spring practices to get ready for this season while Kansas did not have a single practice in the spring. This is a KU team that has won just 6 of their last 59 games SU (vs FBS opponents) and now they're being asked to win this one by more than a TD. No thanks. We like Coastal Carolina here. |
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09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3.5 | Top | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Army West Point Black Knights (-) over Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET: Game #242 |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss -13 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-) over South Alabama Jaguars, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #236 |
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01-13-20 | Clemson +6.5 v. LSU | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -115 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Clemson (+) over LSU, Monday at 8 PM ET - After watching what happened during semi final weekend, we knew we’d get some value on Clemson in the Championship game. We just didn’t think it would be this much value. Clemson was favored by -2 with the line rising to -3 versus an Ohio State team that many felt was the best team in the country for the entire season, better than LSU. Now that same Clemson team is getting anywhere from 5 to 6 points versus LSU just a few weeks later? This is an absolute buy low (Clemson), sell high (LSU), spot for us. Most bettors are greatly affected by what they see most recently. They watched LSU roll over an Oklahoma team that in hindsight really had no right being in that game. They also watched Clemson get behind a great Ohio State team and battle their way back to a close win. So based on that LSU is going to crush Clemson right? A massive 80% of wagers have come in on LSU because of that recency bias. We love taking the contrarian viewpoint to go against the public here. Let’s first remember that Clemson’s opponent (Ohio State) was light years better than LSU’s opponent (Oklahoma). We liked the Sooners getting 2 TD’s in that game, however in hindsight they had a number of close games (5 Big 12 wins by 7 points or less) in a conference that simply turned out to be not very good. The Big12 won a grand total of ONE bowl game with 5 losses. A very impressive win for the Tigers but we’re pretty certain Clemson or Ohio State would have done the same thing if facing Oklahoma. We were impressed with Clemson’s resolve getting down 16-0 against the Buckeyes and rallying to win with a late TD drive. We’ve heard the narrative that OSU outplayed Clemson in the game and deserved to win. We disagree. While OSU did outgain the Tigers by 99 yards they also ran 23 more offensive snaps and still lost. On a yards per play basis Clemson outgained Ohio State 6.7 YPP to 6.0 YPP. As we stated a few weeks ago, the Clemson players and coaches are very familiar with this situation. This will be the 4th time in the last 5 years they’ve been in the National Championship game – winning 2 of those. This is eerily similar to last year’s National Championship when Alabama was a 6-point favorite and came in with an unbeatable offense averaging 48 PPG (same as LSU this year) and very few gave Clemson a chance. Of course the Tigers went on to roast the Crimson Tide 44-16 outgaining Bama 7.5 YPP to 6.0 YPP. LSU QB Joe Burrow is obviously outstanding. But let’s not forget Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is now 25-0 as a starter, has a National Championship under his belt, and is considered a generational talent that will almost positively be the #1 pick in the NFL draft when eligible. The underdog in the National Championship is now 6-0 ATS the last 6 years and 14-7 ATS the last 21 seasons. The oddsmakers sent out lines about a month ago on potential National Championship match ups and in this one they had Clemson as a 3-point favorite. Now they are getting nearly a full TD based almost solely on the results from their semi final games. Remember, the oddsmakers felt Clemson was 2 to 3 points better than OSU and they were correct with Clemson winning by 6. So if OSU would have won their game vs Clemson, based on the number versus the Tigers they would be between a 7 to 9 point dog against LSU. I’m sure you see our point that LSU is now overvalued. Are they a TD better than the two other teams in the country considered in the top 3? No way. We anticipate this game being very close. Getting points is a bonus and gives us the opportunity to win even if Clemson loses the game. We don’t think they will. We’ll call for Clemson to win their 3rd National Championship on 4 years. |
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01-06-20 | Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette -14 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -102 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Miami-Ohio Redhawks, Monday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #280 |
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
#272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati (-) over Boston College, Thursday at 3 PM ET - We really like this situation for a solid Cincy team. The Bearcats have just 3 losses on the season with one coming vs Ohio State and they lost their final 2 games of the season both at Memphis on back to back weekends. Those are far from terrible losses as those 2 teams combined for a 25-1 regular season record. OSU is obviously one of the top few teams in the nation and Memphis, who had 1 loss on the season, gave a very good Penn State team all they could handle in their bowl game. Both of their final 2 losses @ Memphis were games that went to the wire and the yardage was almost dead even in both. One of those losses Cincinnati was forced to use freshman QB Bryant because starting QB Ridder was injured. Speaking of Ridder, his shoulder was not 100% down the stretch and the Bearcat passing game was not great because of that. However, with the extended time off our word is that Ridder is back to 100% which will make this offense much more dynamic. For comparison’s sake, if we throw out the OSU game in which Cincy was shutout, they averaged 37 PPG when Ridder was healthy. Over the final 4 games when his shoulder was not right, they put up only 21 PPG. We expect them to have a very good day offensively vs a BC defense that ranks 125th nationally in total defense allowing 481 YPG. The BC offense relies very heavily on the run. After starting QB Brown went out with a season ending injury in mid October, the Eagles have averaged only 131 YPG passing. They were successful running the ball this year (267 YPG) the problem is, RB Dillon was the main reason for that as he rushed for 1900 yards and 15 TD’s. He is not playing in this game as he prepares for the NFL draft which subtracts easily their top offensive weapon. BC is also in transition as head coach Adazzio has already been fired, offensive coordinator Bajakian has moved onto Northwestern, and WR coach Gunnell is coaching the team as they wait for Ohio State DC Hafley to take over after this game. Cincy is excited to be playing a Power 5 opponent, they have the MUCH better defense, and no turmoil with their coaches. Lay the TD here with Cincinnati. |
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12-31-19 | Florida State +4.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
#255 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Florida State (+) over Arizona State, Tuesday at 2 PM ET - ASU will be playing this game without their 2 top offensive weapons as RB Benjamin (1,100 yards rushing and 10 TD’s) and WR Aiyuk (1,200 yards receiving and 8 TD’s) are both sitting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Their backup RB’s have COMBINED for only 85 yards on the ground this season. For a team that ranks 89th in total offense and 94th in scoring offense, they can ill afford to lose their top 2 playmakers. Many may expect that FSU might be distracted with their coaching situation but we argue that ASU is the team that will be at a bigger disadvantage in that regard. FSU fired Willie Taggart but the interim coach Odell Haggins has been on the Seminole staff since 1994 and coached their final 3 regular season games this year. He also led them to a bowl win in 2017 in a similar situation. The players really like Haggins and he’ll be on new head coach Mike Norvell’s staff next year. ASU, on the other hand, will be playing this game without their offensive coordinator (who was fired at the end of the regular season) AND their defensive coordinator left 10 days ago to take the head coaching job at New Mexico. FSU will also be without their top RB Akers, however they are more experienced behind him with his back up Laborn with 300 yards rushing and 4 TD’s on the season. FSU QB Blackmon has thrown for nearly 5,000 career yards and 40 TD’s should find plenty of openings vs an ASU pass defense that ranks 114th in pass defense. Blackmon will also have his full complement of weapons, including top WR Terry who has 1,800 yards receiving and 16 TD’s over the last 2 seasons. Arizona State has been a money burner in the favorite role going 0-8 ATS their last 8 in that role. This year alone they are 0-6 ATS as a favorite losing half of those games outright. FSU is happy to be back in a bowl after missing the post-season last year for the first time since 1981. We expect them to play well here and we feel an upset brewing. |
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12-30-19 | Illinois v. California -6 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
#250 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON California (-) over Illinois, Monday at 4:00 PM ET - We obviously following Illinois very closely being in Big 10 country. While they step into this game with a 6-6 record, this is NOT a .500 type team. They were extremely fortunate to get wins in a number of games this year. They beat Wisconsin, but were drastically outgained and caught the Badgers coming off Iowa with OSU next. Even with that Wisconsin led basically the entire game and made a number of key mistakes in the final 6:00 minutes to lose that one. Versus Michigan State they trailed by 21 in the 4th quarter and had everything possible go their way in that 3 point win despite getting outgained by more than 100 yards. The Illini were rolled 29-10 in their season finale vs a Northwestern team that hadn’t won a conference game entering that contest. In conference play, this Illinois team was outgained by nearly 400 yards vs Nebraska, by nearly 300 vs a poor Northwestern offense, by 239 vs Minnesota, by 233 vs Michigan, and by more than 100 vs Wisconsin and Michigan State. You get the point. For the conference season the Illini averaged 290 YPG while giving up 440 YPG. In non-conference play they lost at home to Eastern Michigan, struggled to beat a terrible UConn team that finished the year 2-10, and topped Akron who might be the worst team in all of college football. While we feel Illinois is drastically overvalued, this Cal team is undervalued in our opinion. A glance at the full season offensive stats doesn’t tell the entire story. Sure the Bears struggled offensively, however, when QB Chase Garbers started and played the entire game (he was injured for about half the season) this California team was a perfect 6-0. With Garbers at QB, the Bears started the season 4-0. He was injured in the 5th game vs Arizona State with the score tied 7-7 and they went on to lose that game. They were 1-5 SU without him under center (including the ASU loss) and Garbers came back to start the final 2 games which were wins @ Stanford and @ UCLA putting up over 400 total yards in each of those games. They averaged 25 PPG with Garbers under center and 15 PPG when he was unable to play. This Cal defense is good enough to hold Illinois in check. As much heat as Cal’s offense received this year for being lethargic, they averaged more YPG than the Illinois offense did this year. The Illini struggle to move the ball through the air averaging just 177 YPG (110th nationally) and the will have problems getting their running game going vs a Cal defense that ranks 26th vs the rush. Cal’s defense played very well against some potent offenses this year holding Oregon to 17 points, Washington St to 20 points, UCLA to 18 points and Ole Miss to 20 points. We have advantages on offense and defense in this game and its being played in San Francisco which is only 14 miles from the Cal campus giving them the location edge as well. We have a feeling the Illinois, playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2014, might just be happy to have gotten to this point. Cal, on the other hand, is very focused on winning this one after losing in OT vs TCU in their bowl game last year. The Bears win and cover this one. |
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12-28-19 | Oklahoma +14 v. LSU | Top | 28-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
#241 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Oklahoma (+) over LSU, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - This Oklahoma team and their head coach Lincoln Riley understand what this College Football playoff appearance is all about. That’s because they were here last year in a very similar situation. The Sooners, the #4 seed a year ago, came in as 13.5 points underdogs vs Alabama who was the # 1 seed. OU lost that game by 11 points but picked up the cover. They did get down by 21 points at one point, however when an offense like OU’s is getting 2 TD’s, they are never out of it and they proved that last year. They put up nearly 7.0 YPP on one of the best defenses in the country last year in this game. Now they face a potent LSU offense, however the Tiger defense is not nearly the caliber of last year’s Alabama defense. We see a similar type game this year. The Sooner defense is underrated this year. Last year they entered this game allowing a ridiculous 454 YPG. This season they are giving up just 331 YPG, a full 120+ yards better than last year, and they’ve allowed an average of just 278 YPG over their final 4 games of the season. On the year the OU defense is allowing almost 100 YPG less than their opponents are averaging. While we don’t expect them to shut down a potent LSU offense, we also don’t think the Tigers will be able to move the ball at will as many believe. Offensively the Sooners have scored at least 30 points in all but one game this year and they’ve topped 40 in 8 of their 12 games this year. Sooner QB Jalen Hurts has tremendous experience playing in college football’s version of the Final 4 as this will be his 4th straight year playing in the college football playoff (played with Alabama the previous 3 seasons). LSU’s coaches and players have not played in playoff which we feel gives a bit of an edge to OU in the experience aspect. The Tigers are very good but we don’t think they should be a full 2 TD favorite in a game of this magnitude. They did beat UGA by 27 in the SEC Championship game, however vs the other top tier SEC teams LSU was not dominant beating Bama by 5, Auburn by 3, and Florida by 14 with the last 2 games mentioned coming at home. Oklahoma’s offense is definitely good enough to keep up in this game and we expect them stay within this lofty number. |
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12-26-19 | Pittsburgh -11 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -109 | 61 h 36 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Panthers (-) over Eastern Michigan Eagles, Thursday at 8 PM ET: Game #225 |
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12-23-19 | Marshall +17.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marshall Thundering Herd (+) over Central Florida Knights, Monday at 2:30 PM ET: Game #211 |
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12-21-19 | Florida International +1.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 26-34 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida International Panthers (+) over Arkansas State Red Wolves, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET: Game #213 |
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12-20-19 | Buffalo -6.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Buffalo Bulls (-) over Charlotte 49ers, Friday at 2 PM ET: Game #201 |
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12-07-19 | Miami-OH v. Central Michigan -6 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -116 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (-) over Miami (Ohio) RedHawks, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #106 |
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11-30-19 | North Carolina -10.5 v. NC State | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) over NC State Wolfpack, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #359 |
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11-29-19 | Washington State +8 v. Washington | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Washington Huskies, Friday at 4 PM ET: Game #339 |
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11-23-19 | TCU +18 v. Oklahoma | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* TCU Horned Frogs (+) over Oklahoma Sooners, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #137 |
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11-16-19 | Wyoming +5.5 v. Utah State | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming Cowboys (+) over Utah State Aggies, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #353 |
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11-09-19 | Kansas State v. Texas -7 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Longhorns (+) over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #184 |
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11-02-19 | Virginia +2.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (+) over North Carolina Tar Heels, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #337 |
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10-26-19 | Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #169 |
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10-19-19 | Colorado v. Washington State -12 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #372 |
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10-12-19 | Memphis v. Temple +5.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple Owls (+) over Memphis Tigers, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #128 |
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10-05-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #356 |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State -16.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 51 h 9 m | Show |
NOTE: If you do not have access to the First Half Line then make a Full Game Wager on this one. Our recommendation is for a First Half Wager per the analysis here: ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) on FIRST HALF LINE over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #195 |
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09-27-19 | Duke +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke Blue Devils (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #105 |
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09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | Top | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over BYU Cougars, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #349 |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma -22.5 v. UCLA | Top | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 42 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over UCLA Bruins, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #191 |
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09-07-19 | Nebraska -4 v. Colorado | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #331 |
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08-31-19 | Virginia -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (-) over Pittsburgh Panthers, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #203 |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +6 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 38 h 52 m | Show |
ASA CFB 10* PLAY ON Clemson (+) over Alabama, Monday at 8:00 PM ET - We have these teams rated nearly even (Bama should be 2.5 point favorite in our ratings) so whoever happened to be getting points in this game, we feel the value is with the dog. Clemson absolutely dominated Notre Dame in the semi’s winning 30-3 and outgaining the Irish by almost 300 yards. That’s nothing new for this team as they outgained every opponent but one by at least 144 yards. Bama beat Oklahoma 45-34 but outgained the Sooners by just 57 yards. The overall numbers of these teams for the season are almost identical. Clemson averaged 531 YPG on 7.3 YPP. Alabama averaged 530 YPG on 7.9 YPP. Defensively the Tigers allowed just 280 YPG on 4.1 YPP. The Tide just 308 YPG on 4.7 YPP. So for the season Clemson was +251 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Bama was +222 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Clemson’s point differential checked in at +32 PPG. The Tide was +31 PPG. You get the point. Pretty much as close as you could be for a full season as far as statistics go. If we break it down vs good teams only (bowl teams) entering the post-season Clemson had faced 10 bowl teams and outgained them by an average of 236 YPG. Alabama had faced 8 bowl teams and outgained them by 212 yards. Again, very close. Many stick to the rhetoric and Saban is simply tough to top in bowl games. However, the facts tell a different story. Saban is just 3-6 ATS his last 7 bowl/playoff games. Clemson head man Dabo Swinney, on the other hand, is a near perfect 8-1 ATS his last 9 post-season games. You say the SEC was much tougher than the ACC? The SEC is currently 6-5 in their bowl games while the ACC is 5-5. While we will agree the SEC is better, the difference isn’t as drastic as most might think. Bama has a tendency to intimidate opponents beating many of them before the game even starts. They are already in the heads of their opponents before the first kick. That’s not the case with Clemson. The Tigers have no fear of the vaunted Tide. They have already proven the can beat this team in big games. They have met twice in the last three years in the National Championship game and both games went to the wire with Bama winning 45-40 in 2016 & Clemson winning 35-31 in 2017. Last year they met in the semi-final and while Bama won 24-6, it was closer than that as the two were separated by 70 total yards and the Tide returned an interception for a TD in the 4th quarter to break the game open. Breaking down the yardage in their 3 meetings over the last 3 seasons, Clemson actually has the advantage with 1250 total yards to 1110 for Alabama. We predict this one comes down to the wire just as their last two National Championship battles did. Taking the points with Clemson is the value play here. |
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12-28-18 | Iowa State v. Washington State -2.5 | Top | 26-28 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* TOP Washington State (-) over Iowa State, Friday at 9 PM ET - These teams have nearly identical stats on the defensive side of the ball but the Cougars hold a large edge on offense. While the Cyclones averaged 26.8 points on only 359 yards per game this season, Washington State piled up 461.8 yards per game leading the way to producing an average of 38.3 points per game. Keep in mind that while the Cougars have had Gardner Minshew at QB all season long, Iowa State is now using a quarterback that was listed 3rd on the depth chart entering this season! The only two losses that Washington State suffered this season were by 3 points at USC in a game in which they outgained the Trojans by nearly 100 yards and then in the Apple Cup battle versus Washington that was played in snowy conditions that didn't allow Minshew to continue his strong late season run. There certainly won't be any concern with weather in this one as it is played indoors at the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX. This is a big edge for the team with the better offense and that is certainly the Cougars in this match-up. The Cyclones do have some injury concerns in the secondary which could impact their depth in this one and that spells trouble against a passing attack that totaled at least 319 passing yards in every single game this season other than the "snow game" in their season finale. Iowa State is 0-3 ATS this season in non-conference games. The Cougars are 8-3 SU and ATS (including 4-1 SU and ATS this season) in games with a point spread in a range of +3 to -3. With the line move on this game also working in favor of the Cougars this is a fantastic value spot. In our opinion, this is the best team Washington State head coach Mike Leach has had during his time with the Cougars and we like them to bounce back after losing their final regular season game. Certainly it is the best defense Leach has had and we have a feeling the Cyclones will struggle to score points in this game and the Cougars pull away in the 2nd half for a double digit win. Washington State is the play. |
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12-22-18 | Buffalo v. Troy +1 | Top | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
#226 ASA CFB 10* TOP PLAY ON Troy (+) over Buffalo, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET – DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL The wrong team is favored here in our opinion. We have these teams rated dead even and this is basically a home game for Troy. This game is being played in Mobile, AL which is 165 miiles from the Troy campus. When the Trojans played here two years ago they beat Ohio (from the MAC) 28-23. They brought 30,000+ fans to the game and a large contingent is expected again on Saturday. The Trojans were 2nd best team in the Sun Belt all season long right behind Appalachian State who already won their bowl game 45-13 despite losing their head coach and much of their coaching staff at the end of the regular season. Our 3rd rated team in the Sun Belt was Georgia Southern who already beat Eastern Michigan from the MAC (same as Buffalo) in their bowl game. Troy beat all of the bowl teams in the Sun Belt with the exception of App State who played host to the Trojans in the final game of the regular season and won 21-10. This team also beat Nebraska on the road earlier in the season. The MAC is again struggling in the bowl season (EMU lost, NIU lost, Toledo lost, Ohio won as of this writing) and the league is just 1-11 SU their last 12 bowl games. Buffalo lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game blowing a 29-10 lead losing 30-29. We think they’ll have a tough time bouncing back from that disappointment. On top of that, the team that beat them, Northern Illinois, was already crushed in their bowl game by UAB. Troy has a decent sized defensive edge here. They have been very good at stopping the run allowing just 3.3 YPC this season. It’s not as if the Sun Belt is a bad rushing conference either as this Troy defense faced 5 of the top 31 rush offenses this season. The Bulls rely heavily on their running game (42 carries per game) and Troy has the ability to shut that down. On the other side of the ball Buffalo allows nearly a full YPC more than Troy. The Trojans should control the trenches here. This is Buffalo’s first bowl game since 2013 while Troy is playing their third straight bowl game (won their bowl game each of the last 2 seasons). Troy has a veteran coach in Neal Brown that has led his team to a 30-19 ATS record over his tenure at the school. This Troy team has won 30 of their last 38 games going back to the start of the 2015 season. This program has a winning tradition while Buffalo is just starting to build theirs with their first winning season since 2013. Troy wins this one. |
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12-15-18 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* Top Play ON Middle Tennessee State (+) over Appalachian State, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET - We don’t expect App State to be completely focused or prepared for this one. Their head coach, Scott Satterfield, took the head coaching job @ Louisville and took both coordinators with him. On top of that, their interim coach, Mark Ivey, who many of the players hoped would get the job was just eliminated from consideration. The new head coach, just named on Thursday, is an outsider from NC State so the emotional make up of the Mountaineers may not be at its best for this one. That won’t be a problem for MTSU. They are a senior laden team that really want this win. Starting QB Brent Stockstill is a 4-year starter that has over 12,000 passing yards and 105 TD passes! His dad, Rick, is the head coach at MTSU and you can guarantee this team is 100% focused on getting a win to close out this season. The Blue Raiders are coming off a disappointing loss in the Conference USA Championship game losing 27-25 vs UAB. We expect them to bounce back with a big performance here. MTSU has played the tougher schedule (79th nationally) facing 3 SEC teams and vs the 7 bowl teams they played, the Raiders were +39 YPG. App State has one of the easiest strength of schedule (112th nationally) and they were just +26 YPG in the 5 bowl teams they faced this season. MTSU will want to throw the ball here with their talented & experienced QB, it may look like they will have problems against an App State defense that has impressive numbers vs the pass. However, those numbers are as deceiving as they come. That’s because Mountaineers have played one of the easiest passing schedules in the country. The Sun Belt has a number of run heavy teams and that shows up in the defensive stats of Appalachian State. They have faced a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 75 in passing this year and four of their opponents ranked lower than 100. We expect Stockstill to be able to move the ball through the air in this one. App State relies very heavily on the run (42 carries per game) and the MTSU defense has been solid stopping the run this year allowing 4.1 YPC. If you take out their 3 games vs SEC opponents the Raider defense has very solid numbers allowing just 3.69 YPC. Middle Tennessee comes into this game with an 8-5 record with 3 of those setbacks vs SEC teams (all bowl teams). Their other two losses came by 2 points in the Conference USA Championship game and 3 points. We expect a close game here and with MTSU having the motivational edge, we give them a solid shot at the outright upset. Take the points. |
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12-01-18 | Stanford v. California +3.5 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
#334 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON California (+) over Stanford, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Stanford has dominated this series in recent years and that has resulted in some extra attention from the betting markets this week. The Cardinal have risen to as high as a 3 1/2 point favorite as of mid-day Friday and we feel we're getting excellent home dog value here. California has been the much better defense this season in comparison with Stanford. Although the Cardinal passing attack ranks the edge over the Golden Bears, the Cal pass defense is allowing nearly 100 passing yards less per game in comparison with the Stanford pass D. Though the Cardinal are off back to back wins, those victories came against UCLA and Oregon State! Prior to these B2B wins, Stanford had lost 4 of its 5 prior games and now the Cardinal take on a Cal team that has won 4 of its last 5 SU and gone 4-0-1 ATS in the process! The Bears opportunistic ways have been a recurring theme as Cal has forced a total of 13 turnovers the past 5 weeks. By comparison, Stanford has forced a total of only 3 turnovers in their last 4 games. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, California is 38-22 ATS (including 7-3 ATS in recent seasons). Stanford, when off a win over Pac-12 foe, has gone 5-10-2 ATS including 0-3-1 ATS this season. Grab the points with the undervalued home dog in the annual "Big Game" between these Pac-12 rivals Saturday. |
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11-24-18 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -11.5 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
#170 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin (-) over Minnesota, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for Wisconsin. They are coming off a rejuvenating, come from behind win @ Purdue last week and it looks like QB Jack Coan finally found his stride. It was his 3rd start and in his first 2 the play calling was very conservative. We liked the way the game was called offensively much better last week as the passing game became a threat. That passing game should be wide open this week vs the Gophers as Wisconsin’s running game should be very effective. The Badgers lead the Big Ten in rushing and 4th nationally at 277 YPG. UW gashed Purdue for well over 300 yards rushing last week which opened up the passing game. Same scenario this week. They are facing a Minnesota defense that has allowed over 300 YPG rushing on the road this year including 430 yards by Illinois in their most recent road tilt. The Gophs are the youngest team in the nation (53% of their roster are freshmen) and because of that they’ve been solid at home but terrible on the road. They are 0-4 in road games allowing 45 PPG. Minnesota had a great shot at their 6th win last week at home vs a Northwestern team that had already clinched the Big Ten West and had nothing to play for. Even with that, the Cats won by 10. We have a strong feeling that Minnesota knows that was their chance to get to bowl eligible and will have a tough time in this game. Wisconsin has won this meeting 14 straight seasons and the coaches and players are stressing this week they do not want to be the team to blow that streak. The last 8 Badger wins in this series have come by double digits and in their home finale they will be sky high. Another double digit win for Wisconsin and this one could get ugly if they get up early which we think they will. |
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11-17-18 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -4 | Top | 47-44 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
#326 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Purdue (-) over Wisconsin, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the Boilers. They are playing their final home game and need this win to become bowl eligible (currently a 5-5 record). If they don’t get this game they have to go on the road next week to arch rival Indiana and try to get a win in order to qualify for the post-season. Purdue has been up one week, down the next for a full month now. They throttled Ohio State 49-20 here then followed that up with a stinker @ Michigan State the next week. They came back home after that loss and beat a very good Iowa team and then got creamed @ Minnesota. Now back at home after that embarrassing performance (their worst of the season) we would look for a very good game out of the Boilers. This team has beaten 3 straight ranked teams at home (BC, Ohio State, and Iowa) and now they face a Wisconsin team that is absolutely trending downward. The Badgers are already bowl eligible, they are coming off a huge game @ Penn State (a 22-10 loss), and they have their biggest rivalry game vs Minnesota next Saturday. We expect back up QB Jack Coan to be under center again this week although that has not been finalized and probably won’t be until gametime. Starter Alex Hornibrook is in concussion protocol and didn’t play last Saturday after suffering his 2nd concussion in 3 weeks vs Rutgers. We anticipate the UW coaching staff to be ultra conservative with Hornibrook moving forward due to his 2 concussions and the fact they are bowl eligible but out of the Big Ten West race. If either play, we still like Purdue. Coan simply doesn’t have enough experience and they have been very conservative offensively because of that. Even down 12 in the fourth quarter last week the play calling was not wide open to say the least. In the two games that Coan has started the Badgers have scored 17 & 10 points. He has thrown for 158 yards and 60 yards in those two games. That makes the offense one-dimensional and the Purdue defense will load the box to stop the run. It’s a Purdue defense that was gashed on the ground by Minnesota last week in their letdown spot but had been playing quite well vs the run leading into that game. If you take out last week’s debacle @ Minnesota, the Boilermaker rush defense is allowing 132 YPG in league play which would be good for 4th best. The weak spot of Purdue’s defense is their pass defense allowing 278 YPG however Wisconsin is not a team that will be able to take advantage of that. The Badger defense is WAY down compared to previous years. They are very young on the back end and their top run stuffer, Olive Sagapolo, is out. After allowing less than 100 YPG rushing in each of the last 3 season, the Badger stop unit is giving up 175 YPG on the ground this season. Purdue’s offense is balanced and potent and they put points on the board (4th in the Big Ten averaging 32 PPG – conference games). They look even more impressive when playing at home as they’ve scored 37, 30, 49, and 38 points their last 4 at Ross Ade Stadium. The Wisconsin defense isn’t playing well enough to stop Purdue and their offense isn’t playing well enough to keep up. Add in the motivation factors discussed above and Purdue rolls in this one. |
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11-10-18 | Florida State +17 v. Notre Dame | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State (+) over Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #215 |
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11-03-18 | Penn State v. Michigan -12 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:45 PM ET: Game #406 |
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10-27-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #180 |
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10-27-18 | Washington State v. Stanford -2.5 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford Cardinal (-) over Washington State Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #162 |
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10-13-18 | Colorado v. USC -6.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC Trojans (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #156 |
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10-06-18 | Iowa -7 v. Minnesota | Top | 48-31 | Win | 100 | 39 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #387 |
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09-29-18 | South Carolina +1 v. Kentucky | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) over Kentucky Wildcats, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #141 |
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09-22-18 | Air Force v. Utah State -10.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State Aggies (-) over Air Force Falcons, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET: Game #392 |
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09-15-18 | Washington -4.5 v. Utah | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10 PM ET: Game #205 |
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09-08-18 | Michigan State -6 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -102 | 36 h 58 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State Spartans (-) over Arizona State Sun Devils, Saturday at 10:45 ET: Game #393 |
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01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 26-19 | Loss | -100 | 46 h 42 m | Show |
#266 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Michigan -7.5 over South Carolina, Monday at 12:00 PM ET We feel this is a defense vs offense mismatch in favor of the Wolverines. The Gamecocks offense is not good. They rank 107th nationally in total offense averaging only 341 YPG. The two best defenses they played this year (Clemson & Georgia) both completely shut this team down. In those two games the Gamecocks scored just 10 points in each game and averaged only 237 total YPG in those two games. Now they face a Michigan defense that is every bit as good as those two stop units as they rank 3rd nationally in total defense allowing only 268 YPG. Only 3 teams all season long scored more than 20 points vs Michigan and those were the 3 best teams in the Big Ten (OSU, PSU, and Wisconsin). We expect South Carolina to struggle big time offensively here. The Michigan offense had their issues this year but when they had Peters at QB they were pretty good as they scored 30+ points in 3 of the 4 games he started. He’s back and ready to go which really gives a boost to Michigan’s offense. This gives Michigan an advantage on BOTH sides of the ball in this game. We’ve been anti South Carolina all season long as this is a team that seem to get a bit lucky in some of their wins with defensive and special teams scores. In fact, this team is 8-4 but they were outgained by nearly 40 YPG on the season. The Big Ten has been very successful in this bowl season as of this writing (Saturday afternoon) and we look for that to continue. Michigan is the play. |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Memphis | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON IOWA STATE +4.5 over Memphis, Liberty Bowl, Saturday Dec 30th @ 12:30 PM ET – This was one game we immediately circled when the lines came out and feel the better team is getting points here. Memphis is basically playing a home game here but is that a huge benefit for a Bowl team? Isn't it more fun, exciting and less distracting for the players to travel to someplace new as a reward for qualifying for a Bowl? In this situation we don't feel the home field will hold the advantages it normally does for Memphis. A big factor in handicapping Bowl games is knowing if a team is properly motivated to be there and one thing we know for sure, Iowa State will be ready here. The Cyclones have a hot-shot young coach in Matt Campbell who is going to be on the short list for some big programs in the future. Campbell is a fantastic motivator and tactician and the team loves playing for him. This will be the Cyclones first Bowl game since 2012 so we know they'll be excited to be here. Campbell mentioned earlier this week many key players were was banged up at the end of the season but they now look like they did in early September health wise. That’s bad news for Memphis. The Tigers also has a great young coach in Mike Norvell who guided them to the Boca Raton Bowl last year, a loss to Western Kentucky. Memphis has a fast paced, high octane offense that averaged 47 PPG but their offensive numbers are very misleading. The Tigers faced some of the worst defensive teams in college football as 7 of their opponents ranked 82nd or worse in defensive efficiency ratings, 5 of which were 103rd or worse. In fact, the combined DEFF ratings of all the teams they faced was 81st so they should have great offensive numbers. The defense Memphis will face here has been battle tested and is easily the best they’ve faced this season. The Cyclones finished 2nd in the Big 12 in scoring defense (behind only TCU) and they won’t be fazed by the Tigers offense in this one as they have already faced more potent offenses that this one including Oklahoma (1st in the nation in total offense) and Oklahoma State (2nd in the nation in total offense). Despite facing one of the toughest offensive schedules in the nation, the ISU defense still ranks 31st nationally in DEFF. ISU faced 6 teams that rank in the top 50 in the nation in total offense (4 in the top 20) and won't be 'over their heads' against Memphis. The Cyclones played 7 teams in the top 45 according to Sagarin’s ratings while Memphis played just one, Central Florida, who beat the Tigers twice. ISU has played the 24th toughest schedule while Memphis has played the 86th. Memphis makes a living by turning teams over and that won't happen here as Iowa State has not lost a fumble all season long and they've only thrown 2 INT's in their previous four games. The Clones are no slouch on offense as they averaged 30 PPG this season against the MUCH tougher schedule. They should have a field day here facing a Memphis defense that rates 120th nationally, the worst defense ISU has faced all season long. Not only that, we consider the Tiger defense worse than the actual stats tell due to the fact they played such an easy schedule this season. Memphis is 7-0 SU at home this year but those wins have come against teams with a 29-39 SU record. It's obvious the oddsmakers continue to undervalue Iowa State as they are on a 6-0 ATS run as a dog and 10-1-1 ATS overall this season. They also have some added motivation here as ISU is the Power 5 team in this game yet they are the underdogs. They will be out to prove a point here and let’s not forget this is a very talented team that beat both Oklahoma (on the road) and TCU, the two teams who met in the Big 12 Championship game. We like the Cyclones to win outright! |
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12-28-17 | Stanford v. TCU -3 | Top | 37-39 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
#246 ASA 10* PLAY ON TCU -3 over Stanford, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET – ALAMO BOWL - TCU gets to play in the state of Texas here so they will have the overwhelming crowd advantage in San Antonio. We love looking for teams with a big defensive edge in the bowl games and that’s what we get here. TCU was the 4th best rush defense in the nation holding teams to just 99 YPG on 2.9 YPC. They ranked 18th in total defense nationally and allowed opposing QB to complete just 52% of their passes this year. They held opposing offenses to 122 yards per game below their season averages. Those are fantastic season long numbers and we view them as even better than they might read as they put up those stats in the offensively stout Big 12 which has 4 of the top 19 offenses in the country. This makes a poor match up for Stanford who has a young QB KJ Costello who has played in only 10 games thus far in his college career. While he has been improving and looks to have a bright future, we highly doubt he can carry the load vs this top notch defense. He might have to as Stanford relies on their running game to free him up to pass and that might not happen here facing TCU’s run defense. The only two defenses the Cardinal faced in the Pac 12 that were semi comparable to TCU were Washington & Washington State who are both top 20 defenses. In those two games Stanford averaged only 300 YPG on offense. The Cardinal defense is normally the staple of their team but they are way down this season. They rank 70th or lower in total defense, rush defense, and passing defense. We expect TCU’s offense, with speed and weapons galore, to do very well in this game. The Frogs put up at least 30 points in half their games this season. We also like the fact that TCU was embarrassed by Oklahoma 41-17 in the Big 12 Championship game so they feel as though they have something to prove on both sides of the ball here. Lay this small number with the superior team in a home type venue. |
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12-23-17 | Army v. San Diego State -6.5 | Top | 42-35 | Loss | -108 | 42 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -6.5 over Army, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET The key to Army’s offensive success is not only running the option proficiently, but also making opposing defenses prepare for an offense they are not used to seeing on short notice. Two things are working against the Cadets here, one is the fact that SDSU has had a month off to prepare for the option and the other is Aztec head coach Rocky Long is as good as any defensive mind when it comes to slowing down the option. Long has won 11 of the last 12 times his teams have faced an option based offense and this will be the 3rd option team they have faced this year alone - they were 2-0 in those games. In those games the San Diego State defense held Air Force to 220 yards on 60 carries (just 3.7 YPC) which was 90 yards and a full 1.1 YPC below their season average. They also stopped the other option attack they faced this season, New Mexico, with just 82 yards rushing on 34 carries (2.4 YPC) which was 153 yards and a whopping 3.0 YPC below the Lobos season averages. It wasn’t a fluke as the Aztec defense ranks 8th nationally this season at stopping the run which is a terrible match up for Army as they run the ball 91% of the time which is more than anyone in the country. If the Cadets can’t dominate the ground game they are in big trouble offensively as they average only 30 YPG passing which is dead last in college football, a full 50 yards behind the next worst passing offense. On the other side of the ball, San Diego State is very good at running the ball (253 YPG) and they have one of the top RB’s in the nation in Rashaad Penny who has put up over 2,000 yards on the ground on 7.4 YPC. They should move the ball very efficiently on the ground facing an Army defense that simply isn’t very good allowing 5.0 YPC. While we fully expect SDSU to move the ball on the ground, they also have a solid QB Christian Chapman who ranks 33rd nationally in passing efficiency and has thrown 31 TD’s and just 9 interceptions in his two years as the Aztec starter. SDSU is 9-2 on the year with their only losses coming at the hands of Fresno St & Boise St, both bowl teams. They’ve knocked off 2 very good Pac 12 teams this year beating Stanford and Arizona State. Army had three losses on the season to Ohio State, Tulane, and North Texas and 5 of their 9 wins came by 5 points or less. These two teams have a very comparable strength of schedule, yet San Diego State had MUCH better overall seasonal numbers. The Aztecs averaged 6.2 yards per play while allowing just 5.1 for a differential of +1.1 YPP. Army averaged 6.1 YPP but allowed 6.2 YPP for a negative YPP differential. While State has had a month off, Army upset Navy just two weeks ago which was huge for them. That upset was definitely bigger than actually winning a bowl game for this team so this one could be a letdown for the Cadets. San Diego State is the better team in the better spot and we like them to win by double digits. |
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12-16-17 | Oregon -7 v. Boise State | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon Ducks (-) over Boise State Broncos, Saturday at 3:30 ET: Game #205 |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL +10 v. CLEMSON | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Hurricanes (+) over Clemson Tigers, Saturday at 8:00 ET: Game #325 |
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11-25-17 | Washington State +10.5 v. Washington | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Washington Huskies, Saturday at 8:00 ET: Game #183 |
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11-18-17 | Arizona University v. Oregon -2.5 | Top | 28-48 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon Ducks (-) over Arizona Wildcats, Saturday at 7:00 ET: Game #366 |
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11-11-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over TCU Horned Frogs, Saturday at 8:00 ET: Game #160 |
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11-04-17 | Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech Hokies (-) over Miami Hurricanes, Saturday at 8:00 ET: Game #341 |
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10-28-17 | Mississippi State v. Texas A&M +2.5 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A & M Aggies (+) over Mississippi State Bulldogs, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET: Game #208 |
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10-21-17 | Colorado v. Washington State -9.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:45 PM ET: Game #412 |
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10-14-17 | Auburn v. LSU +7.5 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LSU Tigers (+) over Auburn Tigers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #208 |
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10-07-17 | Kansas State v. Texas -4 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
#408 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON: Texas Longhorns (-) over Kansas State, 7 PM ET - Sometimes long-term trends are so well-known that they actually create big value in the other direction when the situation is right and that is precisely the case here. Kansas State, under head coach Bill Snyder, has long been known as a great play on team when they are a road dog. However, in this particular case, they are in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Longhorns have played a much tougher schedule than the Wildcats have so far this season but certainly they won't be worn down here. Remember the great game the Longhorns played against USC earlier this season? That was in mid-September and was followed by a bye week. Then last week Texas finally played again and it was a Thursday game (solid win at Iowa State) so they do have a rest edge over a Kansas State team that played on Saturday. The Wildcats got the win over Baylor Saturday but the Bears have been dreadful this season. That's noteworthy because the Wildcats other wins have come over Central Arkansas and Charlotte! Kansas State lost their only tough game (Vanderbilt) and certainly the Commodores are not comparable to the Southern Cal team that the Longhorns went toe to toe with. Texas got surprised by Maryland in the season opener which proved to be a wake up call, and a good thing for the Horns. Since that loss, the Longhorns are on a perfect 3-0 ATS run. The rush defense of the Longhorns has been fantastic (41 yards per game) in their last 3 games and has allowed under 100 yards per game on the season which is 15th best in the nation. That is a major problem for K-State which averages 43 rushes per game (32nd in the country) and 243RYPG (16th). But the Wildcats impressive rushing stats are very misleading as they’ve faced Baylor (120th in rush D), Vandy (116th) and Charlotte (93rd). Kansas State to have to try and beat the Longhorns through the air with a passing attack that is averaging just 128 passing yards per game against FBS schools (Central Arkansas is an FCS school) and is 122nd out of 130 schools. The Cats are going to struggle to move the ball here and they only scored 7 points in their lone road game this season while UT has put up 97 points in their two home games this year. Home team has covered 5 straight....Look for a home blowout in this one. |
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09-30-17 | Georgia -7.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 41-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
10* TOP PLAY ON: #179 Georgia (-) over Tennessee, 3:30 PM ET - The Bulldogs have a fantastic defense and their strength on offense is running the ball. The Volunteers weakness on defense is stopping the run. You can see where we're going here! Georgia is averaging 223.2 rushing yards per game and Tennessee is allowing 242.2 rushing yards per game. While it is true that the Vols number was impacted by the fact that they got run all over by Georgia Tech's option attack in Week 1, it is also true that the Volunteers only other tough match-up was against Florida and they allowed nearly 6 yards per carry in that game. The Yellow Jackets got to Tennessee for over 6 yards a carry too. With the Bulldogs controlling the ground game in this one (Georgia only allowing 97.5 yards per game even though they've faced tough running teams), the only question that remains is whether or not the Vols will be able to move the ball through the air effectively. The fact is that this is highly unlikely. Tennessee QB Quinten Dormady is a junior but he only had thrown 39 passes coming into this season. Now that Dormady has become "the guy" for the Volunteers he has struggled against tougher competition. Even against weaker competition, UMass last week, Dormady struggled enough that the Vols tried their freshman back-up. That didn't go well either. The Vols offensive production has been a concern as they only scored 17 points last week versus the Minutemen! Also, when Dormady faced his first truly tough test he threw three interceptions at Florida. The Bulldogs will surely present the toughest defense he has faced. Additionally, the Bulldogs are highly motivated here as they have blown back to back 17-point leads to Tennessee the past two seasons. Last year's blown lead was culminated with a 43-yard hail mary pass for the game winner for the Vols at Georgia. The Bulldogs again have the talent to get up by at least 17 points on the Vols this year. The difference is that their defense is not only not going to "break" we don't even expect it to "bend". Tennessee doesn't have the firepower, experience, or talent that recent Vols teams have had when they mounted those big comebacks versus the Bulldogs. Georgia Coach Kirby Smart has this team playing extremely well and the Bulldogs won't take their foot off of the gas in this one until the final whistle. The far superior team gets a double-digit win. |
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09-23-17 | Notre Dame -3 v. Michigan State | Top | 38-18 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
TOP PLAY ON: 10* NOTRE DAME (-) over Michigan State, 8 PM ET - Michigan State will be a popular choice here but that's because the Spartans went 36-5 from 2013 to 2015 and many still have that ingrained in their memory banks. This Michigan State team is nothing like those. Not only did the Spartans go just 3-9 last season, they only returned 9 starters for that season. Now, this season, they returned just 8 starters! As you can see this team is now a shell of what is was in the 2015 season when it faced Alabama in the playoffs. More than half of the starts last season were made by seniors so there is a lot of rebuilding for the Spartans to do this year and that "rebuilding" truly hasn't begun yet. Michigan State has only faced 2 MAC team so far this season and then had a bye week. This is completely unlike the "tests" that Notre Dame has already faced. The Fighting Irish faced Georgia (and lost a tight game to that tough SEC foe) and then faced a very tough defense last week at Boston College. The loss to the Bulldogs will help Notre Dame in the long run. Losses build character and they fought hard with Georgia. Then last week against the vaunted Eagles defense, the Irish absolutely wore them down as they pulled away as the game went on and Notre Dame piled up over 600 yards in the win. By the way, the Fighting Irish also totaled over 600 yards in their week 1 win over Temple. This is a dangerous offense and Michigan State allowed 28 points per game last season. In fact, not including a game against Furman (FCS team) and Rutgers (horrible excuse for a Big Ten team), the Spartans allowed an average of 31.8 points per game. This defense is a far cry from what it used to be but they just haven't been tested yet this season as they've faced a pair of MAC teams. Even more concerning for Michigan State is that they lost the turnover battle 5-2 in those 2 games (versus Bowling Green and Western Michigan). Notre Dame is on a mission this season and they're looking to avenge last season's home loss to the Spartans. The Fighting Irish return the favor here by winning at East Lansing. When playing with revenge and coming off of a straight-up win, Notre Dame is a perfect 5-0 ATS! This is a big revenge spot for Notre Dame and a solid spot to bet them as a very small road favorite. |
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ASA NCAA-F Top Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-09-21 | San Jose State v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 14-32 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
10-08-21 | Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 17 m | Show |
10-02-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
10-01-21 | Houston v. Tulsa -4.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 54 m | Show |
09-25-21 | UTSA +3.5 v. Memphis | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | Top | 37-17 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
09-18-21 | Cincinnati -3.5 v. Indiana | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
09-04-21 | Utah State +17 v. Washington State | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
09-03-21 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 63 h 36 m | Show |
09-02-21 | South Florida v. NC State -18 | Top | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 510 h 30 m | Show |
01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
12-31-20 | Ball State v. San Jose State -9 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
12-29-20 | Colorado +8.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-55 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
12-26-20 | Western Kentucky v. Georgia State -3.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
12-23-20 | Georgia Southern -6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State -21 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
12-19-20 | Illinois v. Penn State -15 | Top | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
12-18-20 | Oregon +3.5 v. USC | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
12-12-20 | Stanford v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -12.5 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
11-28-20 | Rutgers v. Purdue -11 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
11-27-20 | Iowa State +1.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
11-20-20 | New Mexico v. Air Force -7 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan +1.5 | Top | 52-44 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
11-14-20 | Hawaii v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
11-13-20 | Iowa -3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
11-11-20 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois +8 | Top | 40-10 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
11-07-20 | Oklahoma State -12 v. Kansas State | Top | 20-18 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
10-31-20 | Ole Miss -17.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 54-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
10-24-20 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +10 | Top | 45-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette -7 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
10-10-20 | Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -117 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Tennessee v. South Carolina +4 | Top | 31-27 | Push | 0 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
09-19-20 | Wake Forest +1 v. NC State | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina +7 v. Kansas | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3.5 | Top | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss -13 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
01-13-20 | Clemson +6.5 v. LSU | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -115 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
01-06-20 | Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette -14 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -102 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
12-31-19 | Florida State +4.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
12-30-19 | Illinois v. California -6 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
12-28-19 | Oklahoma +14 v. LSU | Top | 28-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
12-26-19 | Pittsburgh -11 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -109 | 61 h 36 m | Show |
12-23-19 | Marshall +17.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 44 m | Show |
12-21-19 | Florida International +1.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 26-34 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
12-20-19 | Buffalo -6.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
12-07-19 | Miami-OH v. Central Michigan -6 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -116 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
11-30-19 | North Carolina -10.5 v. NC State | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
11-29-19 | Washington State +8 v. Washington | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
11-23-19 | TCU +18 v. Oklahoma | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
11-16-19 | Wyoming +5.5 v. Utah State | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
11-09-19 | Kansas State v. Texas -7 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
11-02-19 | Virginia +2.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
10-26-19 | Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
10-19-19 | Colorado v. Washington State -12 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
10-12-19 | Memphis v. Temple +5.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
10-05-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
09-28-19 | Ohio State -16.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 51 h 9 m | Show |
09-27-19 | Duke +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | Top | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
09-14-19 | Oklahoma -22.5 v. UCLA | Top | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 42 m | Show |
09-07-19 | Nebraska -4 v. Colorado | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 45 m | Show |
08-31-19 | Virginia -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +6 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 38 h 52 m | Show |
12-28-18 | Iowa State v. Washington State -2.5 | Top | 26-28 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
12-22-18 | Buffalo v. Troy +1 | Top | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
12-15-18 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
12-01-18 | Stanford v. California +3.5 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -11.5 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -4 | Top | 47-44 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
11-10-18 | Florida State +17 v. Notre Dame | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
11-03-18 | Penn State v. Michigan -12 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
10-27-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
10-27-18 | Washington State v. Stanford -2.5 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
10-13-18 | Colorado v. USC -6.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
10-06-18 | Iowa -7 v. Minnesota | Top | 48-31 | Win | 100 | 39 h 27 m | Show |
09-29-18 | South Carolina +1 v. Kentucky | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
09-22-18 | Air Force v. Utah State -10.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
09-15-18 | Washington -4.5 v. Utah | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
09-08-18 | Michigan State -6 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -102 | 36 h 58 m | Show |
01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 26-19 | Loss | -100 | 46 h 42 m | Show |
12-30-17 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Memphis | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
12-28-17 | Stanford v. TCU -3 | Top | 37-39 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
12-23-17 | Army v. San Diego State -6.5 | Top | 42-35 | Loss | -108 | 42 h 10 m | Show |
12-16-17 | Oregon -7 v. Boise State | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
12-02-17 | Miami-FL +10 v. CLEMSON | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
11-25-17 | Washington State +10.5 v. Washington | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
11-18-17 | Arizona University v. Oregon -2.5 | Top | 28-48 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
11-11-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
11-04-17 | Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
10-28-17 | Mississippi State v. Texas A&M +2.5 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
10-21-17 | Colorado v. Washington State -9.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
10-14-17 | Auburn v. LSU +7.5 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Kansas State v. Texas -4 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
09-30-17 | Georgia -7.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 41-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
09-23-17 | Notre Dame -3 v. Michigan State | Top | 38-18 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |