Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-30-18 | San Francisco v. North Texas OVER 140 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 140 Points - San Francisco @ North Texas, Friday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPNU We like the value with the OVER here as this total has dropped 6 full points from their opening match up on Monday. That total was set at 146, Wednesday’s total was 143, and now we’re getting this number in the 140 range. Obviously the oddsmakers are adjusting downward as each of the first 2 games have gone under the number. North Texas has shot poorly in both games not reaching 40% in either. They’ve been getting plenty of shots off with 68 attempts in each game. If UNT can shoot better here, which we think they will as they’ve shot 47% at home this year, they will put plenty of points on the board. Let’s not forget this team 90 points or more in each of their first 3 games in this CBI tournament so they are absolutely capable. The Mean Green have scored at least 69 points in 7 of their last home games and they reached 69 on Wednesday despite shooting under 40% and making only 2 of their 18 three point attempts. They have made just 6 of their 39 three point attempts (15%) and they are a much better shooting team that those numbers would indicate (35.2% from 3 this year). We expect them to hit the mid to upper 70’s here. San Fran relies heavily on the 3 point shot and when they are on they can put points on the board. They made 14 three pointers in their opener vs UNT but made only 9 of 30 from deep on Wednesday. The Dons also hit a huge drought on Wednesday going a full 9 minutes without a FG spanning late 1st half into the 2nd half. Now that they’ve played a game here and they are used to the venue, we’d expect them to play much better offensively on Friday. They have scored 72 or more in 3 of their 5 CBI games and we’d expect the Dons to get to at least 70 here. We also look for more points from the charity stripe as the first two games have totaled only 10 and 17 points from the line, despite the fact both teams are prone to fouling (232nd and 285th in FTA/FGA per game defense). Shot attempts haven’t been a problem in this series as they’ve attempted 255 which is an average of 63 per team per game which is quite high. Look for the poor shooting percentages to improve here as each has underperformed by quite a bit thus far. If the game is close late as we anticipate it will be, fouling leading to extra points from the FT line is a strong possibility as well. Remember this is the Championship game of the CBI and there is no tomorrow for these teams. Take the OVER on Friday night. |
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03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143.5 | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 143.5 Points - FSU vs Michigan, Saturday at 8:45 PM ET We used Michigan Under the Total on Thursday night vs A&M and obviously we were bitten by some ridiculous shooting from the Wolverines. They hit 61% of their shots including 14 of 24 (58%) from deep. It was simply one of those games for the Michigan offense where everything and everyone was clicking at the same time. Many will look at this number and immediately jump on the OVER after watching the Wolverines put up nearly 100 points by themselves on Thursday. We see it as a chance to catch some value with the UNDER in this one. This total is set higher than it should be because of that recent result. We see no way Michigan comes close to duplicating that shooting performance here vs the long athletic defenders from FSU. Let’s not forget that was the same Michigan team on Thursday night that made just 39% of their shots in their first 2 NCAA tourney games combined. The Seminole defense has been up and down this year, but they are absolutely locked in right now. They have allowed just 37% shooting in their 3 tourney games combined and that includes two games vs Gonzaga & Xavier who rank in the top 15 nationally in offensive efficiency. The Noles rotate 10 players on a regular basis and all are long and athletic and those fresh defenders will make it much tougher for the Wolverines this go around. FSU is a decent, not great, shooting team but they will struggle here vs a Michigan team that ranks 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency. Michigan rarely fouls so FSU won’t be going to the line often. The Wolverines don’t run an offense conducive to getting to the line so they won’t get many freebies either. And when either team does go to the FT line, they are poor (66% & 65%). Michigan is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation but they did attempt to run on Thursday as head coach Beilein obviously saw they could take advantage of a big A&M team that wasn’t good at getting back on defense. Our guess is he won’t want to do that here as FSU is deep and prefers to run. Thus we expect a slow paced game in this one. Again while many will like the Over based on recent results, we think there is a lot that points to this one staying UNDER the total. |
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03-23-18 | Syracuse v. Duke UNDER 133.5 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points - Syracuse vs Duke, Friday at 9:35 PM ET Syracuse knows the only chance they have in this game is to limit possessions by slowing the game to a crawl. That’s what they do anyway (345th in tempo) so we expect nothing different here. Duke is the much more talented offensive team, however with the Syracuse zone and their length (tallest team in the nation) they will give the Devils problems here just as they did in their lone meeting this season. That game ended with Duke winning 60-44 and that was with the two teams scoring a whopping 40 points over the final 10 minutes. The Syracuse defense did a great job keep the pace slow and limiting Duke’s easy looks as the Devils scored only 0.89 points per possession in that game. The Orange, who are a bad shooting team to begin with (325th in eFG%) were absolutely terrible against the Duke zone. Because of Duke’s length inside, the Orange were forced to try and shoot over the zone and that is not their forte. They are one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country and made only 6 of 24 from deep that day. Nothing will change here. Syracuse has won 3 games in the NCAA and they have yet to top 60 points! Two of those games vs Arizona State and TCU were against teams who rank outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. The Syracuse offense will struggle big time here vs a Duke defense that is very good (9th nationally in defensive efficiency). On the other end of the court, the Orange defense is superb (5th nationally in defensive efficiency). In the tourney they have held their 3 opponents to just 56, 52, and 53 points. That’s impressive enough, however factor in the point that all 3 offenses (ASU, Michigan St, and TCU) are top 20 in the country in offensive efficiency and it becomes even more impressive. Duke obviously has a very good offense, however vs slow paced / very good defensive teams in the ACC (Syracuse, Clemson, and Virginia) the Devils and their opponents totaled 104, 123, and 128 points. We see this one with a bit more scoring than their first meeting which hit 104 but not nearly enough to get into the 130’s. UNDER here. |
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03-22-18 | Kansas State v. Kentucky UNDER 138.5 | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 138.5 Points - Kansas State vs Kentucky, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET KSU is a slow paced team ranking 303rd nationally in adjusted tempo. Kentucky is middle of the pack tempo wise but they’ve shown they will play fast or slow depending on the game. In their 3 games vs SEC teams that are similar in pace to KSU (Vandy, Georgia, and Mizzou) Kentucky and those opponents averaged 133 points. KSU will absolutely try and play this game as slow as possible to limit possessions which gives them a better chance to win this game. KSU’s defense has been among the best in the nation for the entire year. The currently rank 20th nationally in defensive efficiency and they allowed only 102 points in their first two tourney games. That was impressive as they held a very good shooting Creighton team (10th nationally in eFG%) to a season low 59 points on just 34% shooting. The Cats then shut down a UMBC team to only 43 points on 29% shooting. That’s the same UMBC team that torched Virginia, the best defense in the country, for 74 points a few nights earlier. Offensively KSU has scored only 69 & 50 points and that was against two defense ranked outside the top 100 in efficiency. Even with Wade back in the line up (he expected to play here) we don’t see the KSU offense going off on a Kentucky defense that is much better than the two teams they just saw. Kentucky has had two higher scoring games vs Davidson (151 total points scored) and Buffalo (170 total points scored) however that wasn’t unexpected. Davidson is a great shooting team (11th nationally in eFG%) and Buffalo loves to play fast. Both defenses were also ranked outside the top 100 in efficiency. Thus both teams have yet to see a defense in the tourney ranked inside the top 100 until here and now they each get to face a top 20 type defense. Neither team shoots the 3 particularly well and neither shoots a ton of 3’s. Kentucky made a grand total of 7 three pointers in their first two games while KSU made just 10 in their games. Both defenses are very good at stopping their opponents from deep thus the vast majority of points will come from inside the arc keeping this a lower scoring game. We like the UNDER in this one. |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan UNDER 136.5 | Top | 72-99 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 136.5 Points - Texas A&M vs Michigan, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET With two top 10 defenses facing off here we have to side with the UNDER. The Wolverines are ranked 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency while A&M comes in at 10th in that category. Michigan is also a very slow paced team (329th in tempo) and we expect this game to be played in the half court with lots of clock eaten on most possessions. A&M will play either way and when they faced similar tempo teams in the SEC (Vandy, Georgia, and Mizzou) they combined to score 109, 120, 121, and 170 points. Their lone outlier was vs Vandy where they combined to score 170 but remember the Commodores defense ranks outside the top 200 in efficiency and the two teams combined to shoot 56% in that game. The Wolverines have allowed just 110 points in their 2 NCAA tourney games while A&M held both of their opponents under 70 points, including a potent UNC offense. The Aggies are an average shooting team that is not very good from beyond the arc (263rd nationally). They caught fire in their first two games hitting over 50% of their shots in each. Now facing a lock down Michigan defense that hasn’t allowed a team to get to 70 points in regulation since February 11th, we expect the A&M offense to look more like the average shooters they actually are. The Aggies get the majority of their points inside the arc and they do not get to the line very much. When they do they only shoot 66% on their freebies. Michigan is the opposite as they rely heavily on the 3 point shot. The problem is A&M defends the arc very well (20th nationally) and Michigan struggled from deep in their first two games hitting just 13 of their 46 attempts. The Wolverines also get to the line very little and when they do they are worse than A&M making only 65% of their FT’s. We look for this to be a half court grinder staying UNDER the total. |
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03-20-18 | Mississippi State v. Louisville UNDER 144 | 79-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 144 Points - Mississippi State @ Louisville, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET Defense should rule the day here as we have two teams who are very good on that end of the court. Louisville ranks 24th nationally in defensive efficiency and MSU ranks 44th. Both teams rank better defensively than they do offensively. Both teams defend the arc very well and neither fouls very often so we don’t expect many FT’s in this one. If the offenses decide to work around the hoop, both of these defenses are fantastic at blocking shots with the Cards ranking 10th in block shot percentage and MSU is 14th. Both teams played on Sunday so this short 48 hour turnaround could bring some tired shooting legs on each side. Both played in high scoring games on Sunday which we feel has pushed this total a bit higher than it should be. For comparison’s sake, MSU’s total @ Baylor on Sunday was 135. Baylor & Louisville have VERY comparable efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively yet this total is set nearly 10 points higher. Both Louisville & MSU along with their opponents all shot lights out on Sunday with all 4 teams topping 50% from the field. MSU, who is a terrible 3-point shooting team (329th nationally), made 13 threes and hit 56% of their shots from deep. Louisville, who had made 37% of their 3’s on the season, made 11 triples and hit over 50% of their shots from beyond the arc. Everything pushes back to the mean here as both teams will struggle to for stretches of this game and it stays UNDER the total. |
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03-15-18 | St Bonaventure v. Florida UNDER 143 | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 143 Points - St Bonnies @ Florida, Thursday at 9:55 PM ET The Bonnies pulled the minor upset in the play in game and in doing so held the UCLA Bruins to just 58 points, 23 points below their season average. St Bonaventure employed a 1-3-1 zone against the Bruins which limited them to just 50 field goal attempts. We look for them to use the same tactics against the Gators as they simply do not match up with Florida. The Gators were 2nd in the SEC (4th toughest conference) in defensive efficiency ratings and are 27th overall in the nation allowing just .975 points per possession. The SEC is the 22nd slowest conference in the country (out of 32) while the A-10 is the 24th slowest. Florida was the 13th slowest team in the SEC, while the Bonnies were 5th in the Atlantic 10. St Bonaventure was 75th in the nation in defensive efficiency ratings at 1.001 points per possession allowed and that was against a top 100 schedule. Only 7 teams (Cincy, Duke, Syracuse, Kentucky, NC Greensboro, Providence and Auburn) that play a significant amount of zone defense rank higher than the Bonnies in defensive efficiency ratings. Florida played Cincy, Auburn and Kentucky twice and averaged 69.5PPG, 6.5 points less than their season average (also played Duke but the Blue Devils were not playing zone defense at the time). The pace of play and efficiency numbers tell us to bet UNDER here. |
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03-15-18 | Iona v. Duke UNDER 157.5 | 67-89 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 157.5 Points - Iona vs Duke, Thursday at 2:45 PM ET Duke is favored by 20 points in this game, thus the oddsmakers foresee a final score in the neighborhood of 89-69 in this game (that would be 158 total points). We don’t see either team getting to those numbers offensively. First of all, Duke is playing lights out defensively since switching to a zone a few weeks ago. Over their last 8 games the only team to reach 70 points was Notre Dame and that includes 2 games vs UNC who has the 5th most efficient offense in the nation (64 & 69 points). Now Iona (80th in offensive efficiency) is expected to get to 70ish in this game? We don’t think there’s any way that happens. At first glance the Gaels have impressive offensive numbers averaging 79 PPG on the season. However, let’s remember their conference, the Metro Atlantic, has a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 100 in defensive efficiency and that is St Peters at 91st nationally. Duke’s defense is a whole different animal coming in ranked 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Iona played only 2 teams all season ranked in the top 30 in defensive efficiency (St Johns & Syracuse) and they scored 59 and 62 points in those games. Duke has the ability to put points on the board here vs an Iona defense ranked 212th in defensive efficiency. However, we envision the Devils getting a large lead and slowing the game down, with lots of subs in late knowing they play again in 48 hours. They don’t need to score 90+ points and the crazy part is, even if they do there is a good chance this game doesn’t go over. The average points scored in a #2 vs #15 game over the last 3 years is 151 points. Also, the last 10 times a 2 vs 15 total has been set higher than 145, the UNDER is 8-2. UNDER for us on this one. |
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03-10-18 | North Carolina v. Virginia OVER 125 | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 125, UNC vs Virginia, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET ACC Championship game. When these same two teams met back in early January the oddsmakers posted a Total of of 134.5 points on the game. You can see for yourself the value we are getting with today's number. Tony Bennett's team is built around his father's (Dick) Pack-line principles and is one of the best in the nation. But to play it you have to expend a ton of energy and with this being their 3rd game in 3 days the Cavs will struggle on that end of the floor a little today. North Carolina clearly wants to play fast with the 50th fastest tempo offense in college hoops. The Heels average just 15.4 seconds to get a shot up which is 14th in the nation. NC has scored 80 plus points in 8 of their last thirteen games, 74+ in 12 of their last thirteen. Our math model predicts 132 total points here and we agree! |
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03-09-18 | St. Louis v. Davidson UNDER 125.5 | 60-78 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 125.5 Points - St Louis vs Davidson, Friday at 8:30 PM ET These are two of the slowest paced teams in the nation (324th and 336th nationally in tempo) so we don’t look for many possessions here. If their lone meeting is an indication, they only too 93 total shots in their game that ended with Davidson winning 54-51. Both are very good defensively with Davidson ranking #3 in the A10 in defensive efficiency while St Louis ranks #4 in defensive efficiency and #1 in eFG% defense. Davidson can definitely shoot the ball well but this St Louis defense matches up well with the Wildcats as we saw in their meeting this year with the Billikens held them to 44% from the field. Also, Davidson relies on the 3 ball more than any other team in the A10 and this will be their first game of the tourney at Capital One Arena so it may take some time getting used to the backdrop in this big NBA arena. St Louis is a poor shooting team ranking 14th and dead last in the A10 in eFG% and made only 37% of their shots vs this Davidson defense earlier this season. Because the rely on the outside shot, Davidson rarely gets to the FT line (348th nationally in FTA/FGA). On the flip side, St Louis is a poor shooting team so they rely heavily on getting to the charity stripe (2nd nationally in FTA/FGA) however Davidson defenders rarely foul. This one has the makings of a grinder and we’ll grab the UNDER. |
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03-08-18 | Notre Dame v. Duke UNDER 143.5 | Top | 70-88 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 143.5 Points - Notre Dame vs Duke, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET If you haven’t noticed, Duke’s defense has been playing as well as any in the nation. This young team struggled with their defense early in the year but their zone has now stepped it up to a different level. They’ve gone UNDER the total in 6 straight games and in those games the Devil defense has allowed 53, 57, 56, 44, 64, and 64 points. Their most recent two performances in which they allowed 64 points each, although higher than their other games during this stretch, were probably their most impressive. That’s because of their opponents who are very efficient offensive teams, Virginia Tech & UNC. Tech ranks 2nd in the ACC in eFG% and averages 80 PPG. The Tar Heels #1 in the ACC in offensive efficiency and average 83 PPG. Both were held way below their average by this red hot Duke defense. Now they take on a tired ND team playing their 3rd game in 3 days. They shot 34% and 37% against two of the worst defenses in the ACC in their first two games in this tourney. Don’t expect them to get well vs this Duke defense. The Irish have had two lower scoring affairs getting by a bad Pitt team on Tuesday 67-64 and then coming from 21 points down with under 15:00 minutes to go to beat Va Tech 71-65. We expect the Irish shooting legs to be a bit weary in this one. Their defense, which has been solid allowing 68 PPG on the season, will have to keep them in it and you can guarantee they want this to be a slow paced game to have a chance to win. ND is one of the slower teams in the nation (320th in tempo) and the slower team usually gets the pace they want. Duke’s offensive scoring has slowed as their defense has improved. The once higher scoring Devils have topped 80 points only once in their last 9 games. This one stays UNDER the total. |
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03-08-18 | Alabama v. Texas A&M OVER 138.5 | 71-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 138.5 Points - Alabama vs Texas A&M, Thursday at 1:00 PM ET We’re getting some nice value with this total set where it is. These two have met twice this year and the totals were set at 144 and 141. Now with this one set in the high 130’s we’re going to jump on the OVER. We realize both games did go under the number, however let’s take a closer look. The first game hit 132 but that was way back in December so we don’t put a tremendous amount of stock in that result either way. Their more recent meeting was over the weekend when Alabama traveled to A&M and lost 68-66. That total was set a 141 and because that game only reached 134, this total is set nearly a full 3 points lower only 5 days later. We look at it this way…Both teams were very poor offensively in the game last Saturday and they still got to 134 points, only a few points lower than today’s total. Bama hit only 37% of their shots in that game and the Aggies weren’t much better at 39%. The two combined to make only 9 three pointers in 45 attempts (20%). On top of those ugly offensive numbers, they made only 61% and 60% of their FT’s respectively. Both also averaged under 1.00 point per possession and again with all that, they still got to 134 points. We expect both teams to fare much better offensively in this one as each defense struggled for the most part down the stretch. Bama allowed 79 PPG over their last 5 while A&M gave up 77. The Tide allowed 73 or more in 4 of their last 5 and the Aggies allowed 80+ in 3 of their last 5. Both teams are capable of putting up solid numbers and this total has been adjusted too low. Take the OVER. |
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03-01-18 | Texas-San Antonio v. North Texas UNDER 148.5 | Top | 62-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
#525/526 ASA 10* PLAY ON: UNDER 148.5 Texas San Antonio @ North Texas, 8PM ET. This is a very big game for UTSA as they can still potentially gain a top 4 spot in the Conference USA standings which would be a bye in the first round of the tourney. North Texas is desperate to stop a 5-game slide. Our math model projects just 143 total points in this game which ironically is what they scored in the first meeting this season. UTSA will be without their leading scorer here (Jackson 18.4PPG) who is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury. That means they now have a starting five with only one player averaging double digit points. The Roadrunners are 28th in the nation in 3-point field goal attempts per game and live and die with the 3-ball. The bad news for them here is the fact that North Texas as the 27th best field goal percentage defense in college hoops. When North Texas plays at home they typically dictate tempo and prefer to play in lower scoring games. Against one of the fastest paced teams in ALL of college basketball (Marshall) they Totaled just 146 points recently. In fact, in conference play they've combined with their opponent to score less than tonight's number in every game but one when at home. We like UNDER here. |
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02-19-18 | Cleveland State v. Wright State OVER 136 | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
#709/710 OVER 136 Cleveland State @ Wright State, 7:30PM ET - These same two teams just squared off on Feb 1st and combined for 151 total points in a game that Vegas had set a total at of 133.5. They've adjusted that number tonight, but it's not enough. Cleveland State is one of the worst defensive teams in the Horizon League allowing 1.105 points per possession. The Vikings have allowed 70 plus points in 7 straight games and 78+ in 4 of their last five. Wright State is coming off a huge win over Northern Kentucky and now have a shot to win the Horizon League title with three relatively easy games on the schedule. Don't be surprised if the Raiders stellar defense takes a dip tonight after that emotional win over NKU. The Horizon League as a whole is the 5th fastest paced conference in college hoops and league games have averaged 147PPG this season. You can see for yourself how low tonight's Total is on this game compared to the conference average. In the last 10 meetings between these two teams on this court the Over has cashed 70% of the time. The math says OVER! |
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02-16-18 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 132.5 | Top | 76-71 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 132.5 Points, IUPUI @ UW Milwaukee, Friday at 8:00 PM ET #817/818 ASA 3* PLAY ON Under 132 Points – IUPUI @ UW Milwaukee, Friday at 8:00 PM ET These two met in January and the total was set at 134.5. The final score of that game was 72-71 sending it OVER the total by 8.5 points Interestingly enough, despite that result this total is set lower than the first game which doesn’t happen very often. Normally in that situation you’ll see the total of the 2nd game set a little higher. There is a reason this total is set lower and we like the UNDER in this game. In the first meeting both teams shot very well. They combined to shoot 48% overall from the field and 51% from beyond the arc. This is not the norm with these two as they are not good offensive teams. These two actually rank last and 2nd to last in offensive efficiency in the Horizon League (conference games only). They are also the two worst FT shooting teams in the conference at 62% and 64% in league games. Scoring wise these two come in at 8th and 9th in the Horizon. Lastly, the pace of this game should be slow with two of the slowest teams in the league in terms of tempo ranking 8th and 10th in that category. Milwaukee’s defense has been playing lights out as of late holding 5 of their last 7 opponents to 61 points or less. While IUPUI’s defense has been up and down, they still rank in the middle of the pack in PPG allowed in Horizon League play. These two have combined to play 49 games where the oddsmakers posted a total and only 18 have gone OVER the number. IUPUI has gone UNDER the total in 16 of their last 21 road games and we expect a grinder here. Take the UNDER |
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02-13-18 | Northwestern v. Rutgers UNDER 125 | Top | 58-67 | Push | 0 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 125 Points - Northwestern @ Rutgers, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET While this low total may bait some into taking shot with the OVER, not us. This is going to be a low scoring game. Bad offense is the key to this one. These two teams are the lowest scoring teams in the Big Ten. Rutgers averages only 57 PPG while Northwestern scores only 63 PPG. They are also the 2 worst shooting teams in the Big Ten with Rutgers hitting just 36% of their shots and NW making only 40% (conference games). On top of being 2 poor offensive teams, these are 2 of the slowest paced teams in the nation so possessions will be limited. Rutgers has been held to 60 points or less in 9 of their 14 Big Ten games. Eight of their fourteen league games have failed to top 124 total points. In their last 7 games (all losses) 5 have totaled 122 points or less. The Cats have scored 65 or less in more than half of their Big Ten games and over the last 4 they’ve put up 61, 60, 57, and 47 points. The team that most compares to these two teams in the Big Ten is Wisconsin as far as offensive output, shooting percentage, and pace. Each of these teams have played the Badgers so looking at those scores should give us a gauge of what to expect tonight. NW and Wisconsin put up just 112 points while Rutgers and Wisconsin totaled 124 points. The Wisconsin – Rutgers game was on pace to score well below the 124 the two teams put up 40 points in the final 10:00 minutes of the game. That was after averaging only 28 points in each of the first three 10:00 minute intervals. Northwestern and Rutgers have combined to play 53 games this year and only 14 have gone over the total. Our numbers say this will be a low scoring, slow paced grinder that stays UNDER the total. |
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02-08-18 | Towson v. Drexel OVER 147.5 | 94-92 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON: #515/516 OVER 147.5 Towson @ Drexel, 7PM ET - This game has the makings of a shootout and our Math Model suggests over 154 total points in this contest. Towson is the 3rd most efficient offense in the Colonial Conference at 1.136 points per possession and they'll have an easy time scoring against a Drexel defense that is last in the league in DEFF allowing 1.160PPP. The Tigers have most recently played Delaware and James Madison and combined with those opponents for 146 and 152 total points. The comparison here is that Delaware and James Madison are two of the slowest paced teams in conference play while Drexel is the 2nd fastest. That means more opportunities for a Towson offense that has an EFG% offense of 53.4% (113th in nation). Drexel is on a hot streak right now with 4 straight wins and have done it with an offense that is shooting 48% their last five games and averaging 78PPG. The Dragons should score here against a Towson defense that has been great overall for the season, but has slipped in their last five games by allowing 78PPG n 46% shooting by opponents. Drexel has played Over in 3 of their last four games, Towson Over in 11 of their last twelve. Earlier this season these two teams combined for 158 total points. The bet here is OVER! |
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02-06-18 | St. Joe's v. Davidson UNDER 145.5 | 62-91 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
ASA UNDER 145.5 St Joseph's @ Davidson, 7PM ET - We love the spot for an UNDER here is what shapes up to be a lower scoring game. The average total points scored in the A-10 is 141.5PPG so you can see for yourself the value we are getting with tonight's number. The A-10 is the 26th slowest paced conference (out of 32) according to KenPom. Davidson is the slowest paced team in conference play and the 313th in the nation. St Joe's is the fastest paced team in the A-10 but they struggle to score points with an EFG% f 46.9% which is 315th in the country. St Joe's is clearly a horrible shooting team at 315th in 3-point percentage, 292nd in 2-point percentage and they only make 66.7% of their free throws (309th). Defensively the Hawks are above average though with the 99th ranked defensive efficiency rating which is 3rd best in conference action. Davidson has the 2nd best DEFF rating in the A-10 allowing just .961 points per possession. Davidson is the home team here and they'll dictate tempo which will be slow. They have a HUGE game on deck later this week against Rhode Island so you can bet they'll want to conserve energy in this contest. Prior to a game against LaSalle (bad defensively) the Hawks had scored 68 or less points in 4 straight games. Last year when these teams met they combined for just 135 total points. The bet here is UNDER. |
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01-30-18 | Rutgers v. Illinois UNDER 134.5 | Top | 60-91 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 134.5 Points - Rutgers @ Illinois, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET These two teams are both better defensively than they are on offense. Rutgers is a terrible offensive team. One of the worst in the nation. They rank 304th in offensive efficiency and 348th (out of 351) in eFG%. They shoot just 39% for the season and it gets worse on the road where they make only 34% of their shots and average just 56 PPG. They are also one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the nation (339th nationally). Since scoring 80 points at home vs Iowa, the worst defense in the Big Ten, Rutgers has averaged just 48 PPG over their last 3 contests. If you throw out their game vs Iowa where they shot an uncharacteristic 53% from the field, this team has scored 52, 51, 64, 59, 46, 47, 54, and 43 points in their last 8 Big Ten games. As bad as they are offensively, the Scarlet Knights play excellent defense ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and they play at a slow tempo as well. Illinois will try and push the pace here, although we find that if a team wants to play slow as Rutgers does, they usually get the tempo they want. Expect a slow game tonight. That’s not great for the Illini who need a lot of possessions to score points because they don’t shoot the ball well. They rank 248th nationally in eFG% and make only 31% of their 3 point attempts which is 323rd nationally. Illinois is decent defensively with the 84th most efficient defense in the nation. These two teams have played a combined 33 games this year where Vegas set a total and they have combined to go OVER just 11 times. We spoke of Rutgers low scoring games, however Illinois has gone UNDER the total in 25 of their last 34 games dating back to last season. This one stays in the 120’s and we play the UNDER. |
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01-30-18 | Buffalo v. Kent State UNDER 159 | Top | 79-82 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 159 Points - Buffalo @ Kent State, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET Our computer math model has this game ending with 150 total points. We feel the value here is absolutely on the UNDER. Buffalo has the top offense in the MAC and we understand that, however their defense is being overlooked here. They are the #1 defense in the league (conference games) allowing opponents to shoot only 40% and the Bulls have held 6 of their last 7 opponents below 70 points. They have held their opponents to a combined shooting percentage of just 39% in those 7 games. We don’t expect Kent, a below average shooting team (227th nationally in eFG% & 261st in 3 point FG%) to change that tonight. Defensively the Flashes have been pretty good in MAC play ranking 5th overall in the league in FG% defense and 2nd in 3 point FG% defense. This is the 4th highest total for Buffalo this year and 2nd highest this year for Kent and we don’t feel it is warranted. Kent has topped 160 points only ONCE this year in MAC play and just 3 times in their 21 games overall (in regulation). Buffalo has topped 160 points in just 2 of their MAC and only 6 of their 21 games overall this season (in regulation). We’re taking the UNDER here. |
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01-28-18 | Richmond v. Davidson UNDER 141 | Top | 66-63 | Win | 100 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 140.5 Richmond @ Davidson, 2PM ET - Our predictive analytics suggests just 132 total points being scored in this game which is a significant difference than the Vegas number. Let’s start with pace of play as these two teams prefer to play slow. Richmond is 229th in the nation in tempo overall and the 9th slowest team in the A-10. Davidson is slower yet, ranking 320th (out of 351) in pace which makes them the slowest paced in the conference. Not to mention the A-10 is one of the slowest conferences in the nation. Neither team has great overall defensive efficiency numbers on the season, but both have been drastically better in conference action. Davidson allows just .97 points per possession in conference play while Richmond allows 1.015PPP which are 1st and 5th in the A-10. Earlier this year when these two teams met they totaled just 127 points. The bet here is UNDER! |
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01-25-18 | Arkansas State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 148.5 | Top | 47-62 | Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
ASA #529/530 UNDER 148.5 Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina, 7:30PM ET - Our computer analytics predict a Total of 141 or less points on this game and we're betting it's right. This is our favorite wager on the card today and expect a very low scoring game here. Let's start with the number on this game of 148.5. Coastal Carolina recently played UL Lafayette who is the best team in the Sun Belt conference. ULL has the most efficient offense by a wide margin in conference action and Vegas posted a Total on that contest of 150. Now CC faces an Arkansas State team that averages .13 points per possession less than ULL. For those of you that don't follow efficiency numbers that's a huge difference. In Coastal's case, they faced a team recently who is very similar to Arky State, in Texas State and those two teams combined for just 140 total points. The Chanticleers are the 8th slowest paced team in the Sun Belt and have the 3rd worst offensive efficiency numbers at .975 points per possession. Prior to a game against Troy, Coastal Carolina had scored 57, 58, 66 and 64 points in their previous four games. Arkansas State is also a slower paced team much like CC as they average just 67.6 possessions per game in conference play. Let's not forget the Sun Belt is one of the slower paced conferences in the nation and also in the bottom third in shooting and scoring. In both teams last five games they are shooting just 42.8% (Arky St) and 38.9% (CC). The Red Wolves are near the college average in pace of play but 8th in the Sun Belt. They are average or below in most offensive efficiency categories and shooting percentages. Last year in two meeting these two teams combined for 124 and 135 total points. The bet here is UNDER! |
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01-24-18 | DePaul v. Georgetown OVER 144.5 | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
#747/748 OVER 144 DePaul @ Georgetown, 8:30PM ET (Fox 1). The numbers don't lie here as our computer analytics suggest 150+ total points in this game. Both teams play faster with DePaul ranking 114th in tempo and Georgetown checking in at 38th. In Big East play these two teams are top 4 in pace of play and that's in a conference that is 2nd fastest of all the conferences. The Big East is also the 2nd most efficient league along with the 5th best shooting. Georgetown is above average in EFG% offense but make up for it by being a great offensive rebounding team and shooting free throws. DePaul is very similar to G-Town in that regard as they don't shoot it well but play fast, go to the glass hard and make FT's. What DePaul doesn't do well is defend the 3-point line as they allow foes to hit 37.4% of their attempts which is 291st out of 351 schools. The Hoyas shoot 35% from 3 which is above average. These same two teams squared off in early January and combined for 171 total points. The Total on that game was 146 and now we see a number that is less than the college average (145). The bet here is OVER! |
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01-24-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Drake UNDER 140 | 80-57 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
#739/740 UNDER 139 Loyola Chicago @ Drake, 8PM ET - This is a showdown for the top spot in the Missouri Valley Conference and should be a defensive grinder. We recently used and won a bet on the Under in the Missouri State versus Drake game which finished with just 119 total points. We state that because Missouri State and Loyola are very similar in terms of pace, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. Loyola is 318th in tempo and takes a shot every 18.2 seconds which is very deliberate. Drake isn't quite as slow as Loyola but they still play at a snail's pace (237th). On the season the Ramblers hold foes to just 42.4% shooting on the road while the Bulldogs hold opponents to just 40.5% at home. The Missouri Conference is one of the slowest overall conferences in college hoops and one of the worst shooting yet the number on this game is near the college average. Our Math Model suggests just 130 total points in this contest. |
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01-24-18 | Samford v. Chattanooga OVER 144.5 | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
#777/778 OVER 145 Samford @ Tennessee Chattanooga, 7PM ET - This game features two really bad defense so scoring point shouldn't be difficult for either team. Overall, Samford is ranked 348th out of 351 schools in defensive efficiency ratings while Chattanooga is 250th. In conference play the Bulldogs give up 1.143 points per possession which is 8th out of ten schools. The Mocs of Chattanooga allow 1.169PPP which is dead last in SoCon play. Samford is the 3rd fastest paced team in conference action while Tenn Chatt is 8th. Samford is allowing 81PPG on the season while Chat gives up 74PPG. In their last five games these two teams have allowed opponents to shoot over 47% and 55% so neither gets to shooters or contests shots. The SoCon is the 2nd best EFG% shooting conference in college hoops which probably has a lot to do with poor defense which will be the case tonight. Our math says 151. |
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01-20-18 | Missouri State v. Drake UNDER 138 | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
#599/600 ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 137 Missouri State @ Drake, 4PM ET - This shapes up to be a very low scoring game and we don't see these two teams topping 130 points here. Missouri St is the 315th slowest paced team in college hoops and take 18.1 seconds to get a shot up so they are very deliberate on the offensive end of the court. The Bears have attempted 59 or less field goals in nine straight games and scored 68 or less points in 8 of their last ten games. Missouri State also has the #1 ranked defensive efficiency numbers in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. Drake is very comfortable playing a slower paced game as they rank 247th in tempo. The Bulldogs have totaled 137 points in three of their last four games. Drake has attempted 52 or less field goals in four straight games and 7 of their last ten. Both teams are playing solid defense right now as MOST allows just 42.1% shooting on the road this season and 41.7% their last five overall. Drake is holding opponents to just 41.4% at home this year. The Missouri Valley Conference is the 30th (out of 32) slowest conference in college hoops with a tempo of 66.8. It is also the third worst conference in terms of offensive efficiency ratings. The bet here is UNDER! |
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01-19-18 | Buffalo v. Western Michigan UNDER 153 | 84-74 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
#819/820 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 153 Buffalo vs. Western Michigan, 7PM ET - Two contrasting styles of play here but we expect the home team, Western Michigan, to control the pace enough for this to be a lower scoring game. Buffalo is one of the faster paced teams in college hoops at 73.3 possessions per game. WMU is one of the slower though, ranking 235th in pace or 67.5 possessions per game. Western is not a great shooting team at 49.1% EFG percentage which is 240th in the nation. Their 2-point percentage shooting is just 46.1% which is 294th. Buffalo is top 100 in several different offensive categories but recently they've played two similar teams to WMU in Balls State and Akron and those games finished 152 and 146 total points. Western Michigan is the slowest paced team in the MAC which is a big reason why 10 of their last eleven conference games have stayed UNDER the number. The bet here is UNDER. |
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01-18-18 | Mercer v. VMI UNDER 137.5 | 62-56 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
#585/586 ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 137.5 Mercer @ VMI, 7PM ET Mercer is the 334th slowest paced team in college basketball while VMI is 223rd. VA Military is one of the worst teams in nation when it comes to offensive efficiency as they rank 345th out of 351 schools. Their overall EFG% offenses isn't much better either ranking 323rd. In other words they struggle to score points. VM I has lost 6 straight games and have scored 65 or less points in all six, less than 58 four times. VMI recently played UNC Greensboro who is similar to Mercer in terms of pace of play and those two teams combined for just 124 total points. Mercer is much better offensively than VMI in terms of OEFF and EFG% but again they play very deliberate. Mercer recently played two other teams that are a lot like VMI (Samford, Chattanooga) in terms of pace of play and those games finished with just 131 and 132 (in regulation). In the two meetings last year these two conference rivals combined for just 132 and 118 total points. The Under is 15-2 in VM I's last 17 conference games while Mercer Under in 5 of their last six in the Southern Conference. BET UNDER! |
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01-16-18 | Detroit v. IUPU-Indianapolis UNDER 156 | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 156 Detroit U @ IUPUI, 7PM ET - The home team here, IUPUI, will dictate tempo and keep the Titans from playing their game which is up-and-down. The Jaguars are one of the slowest paced teams in college hoops at 281st while Detroit is 11th. In a very similar situation the Jags hosted a UW Green Bay (22nd pace) team recently and the two Horizon League teams combined for just 128 total points. Defensively neither team is good as both rank 312th or worse in defensive efficiency ratings but neither is good offensively either as IUPUI ranks 242nd while Detroit is 192nd. The Titans are shooting just 42.6% offensively on the season while IUPUI is hitting under 41%. Detroit is playing in an unfamiliar building for the first time, on the road for the first time in 5 games, so expect them to struggle shooting here. IUPUI sets the pace at home and this game stays well under the number. |
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01-14-18 | Davidson v. Fordham UNDER 136 | Top | 75-45 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
ASA play on: UNDER 135.5 Davidson vs Fordham, 3PM ET – These are the two slowest paced teams in the A10 Conference which is also the 28th slowest conference out of 32 in the country. Overall Davidson is 314th in the nation in tempo while Fordham is 274th. And while Davidson is very efficient offensively ranking 55th at 1.116 points per possession, Fordham is not ranking 330th at .94PPP. Defensively though the Rams are 129th and give up just 1.023PPP. Davidson is 159th in DEFF and hold foes to a shot every 18 seconds defensively. Davidson recently played at Richmond who is VERY similar to this Fordham team and those two combined for just 127 total points. Fordham recently played St Bonaventure (comparable to Davidson) and totaled 139 points but unlike Davidson, St Bona plays much faster. Fordham has really struggled with their shooting of late by hitting less than 41% of their attempts while Davidson has held their last five opponents to under 42% shooting. This sets up to be lower scoring. BET UNDER! |
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01-09-18 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska UNDER 132 | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
#547/548 UNDER 132 Wisconsin @ Nebraska, 8:30PM ET - We play UNDER here as the Badgers are one of the slowest and most deliberate offenses in the nation. Out of 351 schools the Badgers are in 348th tempo or pace and take a shot every 20.1 seconds which is the 4th slowest in D1 hoops. Wisconsin averages just 65 possessions per game, only Virginia is slower. Nebraska plays right around the national average in terms of pace of play and are slightly above average in terms of shots per minute. What Nebraska doesn’t do well though is shoot. They are 221st in EFG% offense and average just 75PPG. Defensively both teams are solid as they rank 90th or better in defensive efficiency ratings allowing less than 1.000 points per possession. The Badgers have held opponents to just 41% shooting on the road while Nebraska does the same at home. In the last five meetings these two teams have combined to average just 124PPG if you take out one overtime period. Yes, it’s a low number but the bet here is UNDER! |
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01-09-18 | Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 140 | Top | 74-79 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
#519/520 UNDER 140 Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan, 7PM ET - The numbers are suggesting an UNDER here or lower scoring game between these two Michigan rivals. Both teams rank in the lower half of college basketball in terms of tempo or pass of play. CMU is 269th in tempo and takes a shot every 17.9 seconds every offensive possession. EMU is 202nd with a shot up every 17.4 seconds. So both teams are going to prefer to play slow which is great for our under bet. Secondly, neither is very proficient offensively. Central is 187th in offensive efficiency ratings while Eastern is 198th. Both also have EFG% shooting percentages that rank 187th or worse. So in other words, they both play slow and have a hard time scoring. Both teams are solid defensively as CMU holds foe’s to just 40.7% shooting (47th best in nation) while EMU limits opponents to just 43% shooting (120th). The line opened 135 on this game and was pushed up to 140 which we love as it gives us 5 points of value. The Under has cashed in 7 of the last nine meetings and it’s about to change to 80% after tonight. |
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01-07-18 | William & Mary v. Drexel OVER 158 | Top | 85-63 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY #835/836 OVER 159.5 William & Mary @ Drexel, 4PM ET – The number on this game might look a little intimidating but in reality, it’s not. Our preditictive analytics suggest 165 or more points in this contest. William & Mary is very efficient offensively averaging 1.125 points per possession which is 41st in the nation. They shoot it EXTREMELY well with the 5th best EFG% offense at 59.8% and they are the d#1 3-point percentage team in college basketball. They have an adjusted tempo of 71.4 which is 93rd and they get a shot up every 16.7 seconds which is 105th. Defensively they are awful! They give up 1.116 points per possession which is 318th out of 351 schools. Their effective FG% defense is 318th! Drexel is not a great offensive or shooting team, but they do get a ton of second chance opportunities and are slightly better than the college average in pace of play. Defensively they are not good either with the 203rd ranked 3-point percentage defense, 229th defensive efficiency rating at 1.061PPP. Drexel is coming off a OT game on Friday and fatigue affects defense more than anything, so they’ll give up points here. In a similar game against UNC Wilmington the Dragons got beat 107-87 or 194 total points. Drexel has given up 82 or more points in three straight, W&M has scored 84 plus in three straight! The bet here is OVER! |
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01-06-18 | The Citadel v. Wofford OVER 166 | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 166 Points - The Citadel @ Wofford, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET We just pushed a total wager the other day with Under on The Citadel versus Furman game but the difference is that number was 174. Now we get a more manageable number with the 2nd fastest paced team in college hoops. Citadel clearly wants to play as fast as they can and the result is a lot of points for them and their opponents. Citadel is one of the worst defensive teams in college basketball ranking 326th in defensive efficiency ratings, 339th in EFG% ‘D’ and they give up 96.6PPG which is 350th out of 351 college programs. Wofford is a slower paced team but very efficient ranking in the top 100 in offensive efficiency ratings and 46th in EFG% offense. Wofford just put up 92 points against VMI who is better defensively than Citadel but doesn’t play as fast as them. In two meetings last season the oddsmakers posted totals of 182 and 184 on their two meetings and they combined for 190 and 207 (in OT but 182 in regulation) total points. This one goes OVER the total. |
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01-05-18 | Wisconsin v. Rutgers UNDER 125 | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY UNDER 125 Wisconsin Badgers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 7PM ET - This is obviously a very low total but there is still value in the number and here's why. Rutgers is awful offensively averaging just .988 points per possession (264th in nation), an EFG% of 43.6% which is 342nd, 3-point percentage of 29.7% (329), 2-point percentage of 43.3% (327) and they make just 62.5% of their free throws which is 345th of 351 schools. All these horrific number despite playing the 338th easiest schedule in the country. What the Knicks do well though is play defense. They are 30th in defensive efficiency ratings and 15th in EFG% defense. Their overall pace or tempo is 211th which is also in the bottom half of college hoops. Earlier this season they faced a similar team to Wisconsin in terms of tempo in Michigan State and they combined for 114 total points. The Badgers are one of the slowest paced teams in college basketball ranking 346th out of 351 schools. Their average possession length is 20 seconds which is 348th. In other words Wisconsin is very deliberate offensively! The Badgers allow .988 points per possession which is 79th in the nation. Wisconsin is missing two, and potentially three starters for this contest and were forced to play walk-ons in their most recent win over Indiana. Last year when these two teams met on this court they scored 90 total points in regulation, added 25 in OT and still stayed under this number of 125. The bet here is UNDER! |
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01-04-18 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Oral Roberts OVER 153 | 60-76 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON: #587/588 OVER 153 IPFW @ Oral Roberts, 8PM ET - This Summit League clash should be a shootout with plenty of points to go Over the number. Last year the Summit was the fastest and most efficient offensive conference in the nation with IPFW the 3rd fastest team in the league and Oral Roberts 5th. This season Oral Roberts has faced just one other conference opponent which was Nebraska Omaha who is similar to IPFW in pace (50th) and average possession length (98th). In that contest Oral Roberts and Nebraska totaled 167 points. Oral Roberts has some poor overall efficiency number offensively and defensively but they've played a brutally tough schedule so their better than their stats. The Mastodons are the 19th fastest paced team in the nation and get a shot up every 15.5 seconds which is 38th fastest. The Dons have scored 88+ points in 4 of their last six games overall and 85+ in 9 of their seventeen. Ft Wayne is 4th in the nation in 3-pointers made and 24th in 3-point attempts per game. The Dons have made 10 or more 3-pointers in 11 games this season. Last year in two meetings these two teams combined for 170 and 193 total points. Oral Roberts on 13-4 Over streak last 17 conference games. IPFW on a 23-9 Over run last 32 in Summit League play. |
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01-04-18 | The Citadel v. Furman UNDER 173 | 67-107 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
ASA play on: UNDER 173 #579 The Citadel vs Furman, 7:30PM ET - Our Math Model has uncovered a huge difference in the Totals today and predicts an Under on this game by a fairly wide margin. There are contrasting styles of play here as the Citadel wants to play fast (2nd in nation in adjusted tempo) compared to Furman who is right around the national average in pace. Playing fast is just about all that Citadel does well though as they are not efficient on the offensive end of the court and have one of the worst EFG%'s in the nation (301st) at 46.4%. They don't shoot free throws well, 3 or 2-pointers. The Bulldogs will have a hard time scoring against a Furman team that is 112th in defensive efficiency ratings and have held their last five foes to just 42.9% shooting. The Paladins will be deliberate on offense and dictate the tempo they want at home. Furman just played a VMI team that is very similar to this Citadel team and they combined for just 144 total points. Our predictive model suggest 157 total points here. BET UNDER! |
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01-03-18 | Marquette v. Providence OVER 151 | 95-90 | Win | 100 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
ASA 9* play OVER 151 #725/726 Marquette @ Providence, **6:30PM ET** - The numbers and efficiency ratings predict a higher scoring game here as these two teams both rank 122 or higher in adjusted tempo (so better than average or 175) and each are highly efficient offensively. Marquette with their sniper lineup is the 18th best EFG% offense in the nation by shooting 57.4%. Providence isn't quite as good with an EFG% of 52.9% but it's top 100. They make up for it with the 61st ranked offensive efficiency numbers at 1.100 points per possession. Marquette has the 18th best OEFF rankings at 1.155PPP. The Friars are better defensively overall but they've given up 70+ points in four straight games and now face a Golden Eagles team that has scored 80+ in 9 of their fourteen games. Marquette has also allowed 80 or more points in 7 of their fourteen games and give up an average of 74.1PPG which ranks them 195th in the country. The bet here is OVER! |
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12-12-17 | Mississippi State v. Cincinnati UNDER 138.5 | Top | 50-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 138.5 Points - Mississippi State @ Cincinnati, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2 Two defensive minded teams here and we expect a grinder. MSU comes in allowing their opponents to shoot only 37% and the Bearcats do them one better giving up just 36% from the field. That ranks these two teams 17th and 11th nationally in FG% defense respectively. The Bulldogs have held 7 of their 8 opponents this season to under 39% from the field. The Bearcats have held 7 of their 9 opponents this season to 67 points or less and 5 of those opponents failed to top 54 points. Their lone stinker defensively came against cross town rival Xavier two games ago and it wasn’t a huge surprise as the Musketeers are a fast paced team that shoots the ball as well as anyone in the nation (55% ranking 2nd nationally). They bounced back last Saturday after that poor performance and held a Florida team that was averaging over 90 PPG to just 66. Neither is a great shooting team and MSU is really poor from beyond the arc hitting just 29% (311th nationally). On top of that when these teams go to the line, it’s not a given as both make under 70% of their freebies. The Bearcats have gone UNDER in 5 of their 7 games with a posted total and Mississippi State has gone UNDER in 3 of their 4 games with posted totals. Cincy has gone UNDER the number in a whopping 50 of their last 70 non-conference games and we look for another here. This one should be low scoring and stay well UNDER this number. |
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12-09-17 | Illinois v. UNLV OVER 157.5 | Top | 82-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 157.5 Points - Illinois @ UNLV, Saturday at 11:59 PM ET These two teams want to play fast and it's going to lead to a very high scoring game. The Illini are the 17th fastest paced team in the country at 78.8 possessions per game while UNLV is 8th at 80.9. The Runnin Rebels are also the 29th most efficient offense in college hoops at 1.135 points per possession. Illinois is not as efficient offensively as UNLV but they still average 1.036PPP which is good for 128th. What shot the Illini do miss they tend to clean up the boards and get plenty of second chance opportunities with an offensive rebounding rate that is 44th in the nation. UNLV is 33rd in NCAA with an effective FG% of 56.4 and also do a fantastic job on the O-boards with the 9th best rebounding percentage in the country. UNLV has scored 85 or more points in every game but one this year, 6 of nine have been 91+. The Illini have topped 80 points in 7 of their ten games this season. Bet the OVER in this game. |
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12-05-17 | Tennessee-Martin v. Arkansas State UNDER 144.5 | 92-78 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON: #755/756 UNDER 144.5 Tennessee Martin @ Arkansas State, 8:30PM ET - Tempo or pace will have a lot to do with the outcome of this O/U wager and with one of the slowest teams in ALL of college basketball on the court we like a lower scoring game. Tenn-Martin ranks 320 out of 351 in terms of pace of play and are very deliberate on the offensive end of the court. Their average length of possession is 18.1 seconds (277th). Arkansas State played a very similar team to UTM earlier this season in South Florida (306 in pace) and that game finished with just 133 total points. Looking at Arkansas State's schedule we see two higher scoring games this year against Howard and Indiana. Howard (35th pace) is one of the fastest paced teams in college hoops and Indiana is one of the most efficient offensively (49th at 1.112 points per possession). Not only does Tenn-Martin play slow, they are not efficient offensively averaging just .990 points per possession which ranks them 256th in the Nation. UTM recently played LSU, who is much better than Arkansas State, and they combined for 144 total points which is tonight's number. Against Illinois, who is the 29th fastest paced teams in college hoops, UTM and the Illini combined for 151 total points. The average points scored in a college game this year is 146 so you can see for yourself this number isn't as low as you might think. The bet here is UNDER! |
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11-28-17 | Tenn Chattanooga v. Akron UNDER 134.5 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
ASA play on: #545/546 UNDER 134.5 Tennessee Chattanooga @ Akron, 7PM ET - We'll start with pace of play in this matchup as the tempo of this game sets up to be slow. Akron was the 2nd slowest team in MAC play a year ago and currently rank 279th in pace this season (out of 351). Tenn-Chat is very similar as they were the second slowest team in the Southern Conf last season and this year they are averaging just 70.5 possessions per game which is 271st. Both teams are also better defensively than they are offensively. Chattanooga is one of the worst offensive efficiency teams in all of college basketball at 301st but have an EFG% defense that is 193rd. The Akron Zips are 226th in OEFF but 46th in DEFF. The Zips are giving up just 63PPG this season which is 31st in NCAAB. The Mocs give up 73PPG on 45% shooting but their stats are a little skewed after playing an UAB team that is one of the higher scoring teams in college hoops right now. These two teams have less than 26% of their minutes played last year so it's not like veteran guys can step up on the offensive end of the court. UTC on a 9-1 UNDER streak while Akron has played UNDER in 46 of their last 63 home games. The BET HERE IS UNDER the total! |
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11-27-17 | Eastern Illinois v. Marquette OVER 149 | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 149 Eastern Illinois @ Marquette, 8PM ET - We expect a higher scoring game from these two teams based on the math which will lead to an easy winner here. EIU recently played at San Diego State who is comparable to Marquette in some aspects and those two teams combined for 157 total points. In a game versus IUPUI who is a fast paced team from the Summit Conference, they scored 159 total points. Now they face a Marquette team that has already scored 94 points in two games against LSU and VCU who are far better defensively than Eastern Illinois. The Golden Eagles like the 3-point shot and have several players that can stick it in the hole. Guards Markus Howard was one of the best 3-point shooters in the nation last year at 54.7%. His backcourt mate Andrew Rowsey shot 44.7% last year from beyond the arc and is averaging over 24PPG this season. Throw in super-soph Sam Hauser and you have three players on the floor at all times that can make shots from anywhere on the court. Marquette is 22nd in the nation in 3-point attempts per game this season. Eastern Illinois has the 319th WORST 3-point field goal defense this season which is clearly bad in this situation. We'll need EIU to score here too which they should as Marquette has given up 80+ points in four straight games. The NCAA average points per game is 146 and this number tonight is barely higher than that with one team that will get to 90. Easy call OVER! |
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11-22-17 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Kentucky OVER 148 | 67-86 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
We are going to play OVER 148 in the IPFW (Indiana Purdue Fort Wayne) versus Kentucky. These two teams like to play FAST! Last year Kentucky was the 18th fastest paced team in college hoops at 76.2 possessions per game. IPFW was faster, ranking 14th in pace at 77 possessions per game. The Wildcats averaged 84.9PPG while IPFW averaged 84.3PPG. They were both top 10 scoring teams in the nation. Kentucky was 16th in the country in offensive efficiency at 1.113 points per possession while IPFW was 33rd at 1.095PPP. IPFW just played Illinois Chicago and the total on that game was 160 points and now they play arguably one of the best offensive systems in college over the last ten years. Kentucky just played Troy (215th in pace) who is a very slow team in terms of pace along with East Tennessee State (75th) and Kansas (92nd). All three were lower scoring games by Wildcat standards. Now they get a chance to go up-and-down with another team willing to run. IPFW is not good defensively either as they ranked 250th last year in defensive efficiency ratings. Only 6 of IFPW’s 33 games last year finished with 148 or less points and all of the Mastodons’ top four scorers are either juniors or seniors so they’re a veteran group. Kentucky scored 90+ in 14 games last season and this looks like a perfect opportunity to get to that number here. PLAY OVER! |
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11-21-17 | Morehead State v. IUPU-Indianapolis OVER 146 | 61-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON: #757/758 OVER 146 Morehead State @ IUPUI, 7PM ET - There is tremendous value in this OVER bet as the opening Vegas number on this game was 154.5 and has dropped all the way down to the current number. That over-correction by the oddsmakers has us ready to punch this winning ticket. The pace of play will be critical here and we project a faster paced game here. IUPUI was 72nd in pace last year and average just 16.8 seconds to get a shot up on the O-end of the court. Morehead was 117th in pace and took just 17.1 seconds to get a field goal attempt up last year. Defensively, both of these teams were horrible last season ranking 323 (IUPUI) and 332 (Morehead) in defensive efficiency ratings and both allowed more than 78PPG. Morehead State has played two similar opponents to IUPUI already this year in Marshall and Lipscomb and those two games finished with 169 and 147 total points. Both teams should shoot reasonably well in this game given the defenses and we'll have a fast enough game to get over the total which is set slightly below the NCAA average points scored of 148.6PPG. |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 155 | Top | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 155, Gonzaga vs North Carolina, Monday at 9:20 PM ET This number is set awfully high for an NCAA Championship game. For some perspective, just 4 of the last 26 NCAA title games have topped 160 points (this total is currently set at 155). While both offenses are definitely capable, let’s not forget that the Zags are #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency and defensive eFG%. With this number set where it is, one of this two teams almost has to get to 80 points. Gonzaga has not allowed a single team to reach 80 all year. UNC’s defense has been solid during the tourney as well allowing just 40% from the field. They just held a very good shooting Oregon team to 38%. With PG Berry having 2 bad ankles, this Tar Heel team will rely very heavily on Jackson from the outside. If he’s off, they will have trouble scoring bunches from deep. Inside they rely on offensive rebounding and putbacks and with Gonzaga’s size, they should be able to neutralize that a bit. Also, we don’t envision the Zags shooting nearly 50% as they did on Saturday. In last year’s championship game, UNC & Villanova combined to shoot 49.5% and they still only reached 151 points. Both teams will have to play very well offensively to get to this number and we don’t think it happens. Take the UNDER. |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 138 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 138, Gonzaga vs South Carolina, Saturday at 6:09 PM ET In this game we have the two top defensive efficiency teams in the entire nation with Gonzaga ranking #1 and South Carolina #2. Both rank in the top 12 nationally in eFG% defense (Zags #1 & S Caro #12) and each lockdown the 3 point line as good as anyone in the nation (both allowing 30% or under). That should limit points from deep which is always a big advantage when you’re on the UNDER. They’ve continued that shut down mode throughout the tourney where South Carolina has allowed their 4 opponents to shoot just 39% and Gonzaga has done even better allowing 33%. They’ve also stopped their opponents from beyond the arc with South Carolina allowing 32% during the tourney (that includes facing two of the top 3-point shooting teams in the nation Marquette & Duke) while the Zags have allowed just 24% from deep. The fact is, it’s really tough to get solid looks against these two defenses. Let’s also not forget that while the Gamecocks have shot the ball decent during the tourney, that’s not their M.O. as they are one of the worst shooting teams in the nation (306th nationally out of 351 teams). On the other side, the Zags simply aren’t accustomed to facing the type of pressure defense they will see here. They did face one similar defense during the tourney in terms of aggressive pressure and that was WVU. In that game Gonzaga shot 40% and scored just 61 points. This one is going to be an absolutely slugfest with the defenses being in control. Let’s also keep in mind this game is being played in a football venue (Arizona Cards) so not conducive to shooting the ball. We don’t see either team reaching 70 points and this one stays well UNDER the total. |
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03-25-17 | Oregon v. Kansas OVER 156.5 | 74-60 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 54 m | Show | |
PLAY OVER KANSAS vs OREGON - At first glance you wouldn't expect any value in this line as most 'Joes' will be betting over in this game but we feel there is enough room for us to still bet the over here. In direct comparisons: Kansas just played Purdue and the total on that game was set at 156. Purdue and Oregon are very comparable in terms of pace of play, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency ratings and Kansas put up 98 points on the Boilermakers and the game ended with 164 total points. Oregon had a total set of 148 in their game against Michigan who is one of the five slowest paced teams in all of college basketball (Kansas is 83rd fastest). The Oregon/Iona game had a total of 155.5 and those two teams put up 170. Our baseline in college basketball is 145 average points per game. In this matchup we have an Oregon team that has scored 80 or more points in 4 of their last 7 games and a Kansas club that has scored 98, 90, 100 in the NCAA Tournament and put up 90 and 82 in the Big 12 Tourney. These two teams boast two of the top 15 offensive efficiency offenses in college hoops and two of the top 16 shooting teams. Again, this number is just 11 points higher than 'average' so we'll bite and bet OVER! |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga UNDER 145.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UNDER 145.5, Xavier vs Gonzaga, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET After making 46% of their shots on the season and 35% of their 3-point attempts, Xavier has played over their heads offensively during the first 3 games of the tourney. In their 3 NCAA tourney games they have made 53% of their shots and 46% of their 3-point attempts. Now they face a defense that ranks #1 nationally in defensive efficiency AND defensive eFG%. Gonzaga’s offense has been shaky at best during this tourney (shooting just 41%) but their defense has lived up to its lofty billing. They held a high scoring South Dakota State team to just 46 points in the opener. Then Northwestern put up only 20 points in the first half before breaking out in the 2nd half although we feel that had a lot to do with Gonzaga letting up with a huge lead. On Thursday they completely stifled WVU’s offense holding them to 58 points on 27% shooting. On the season the Zags have allowed only 8 teams to top 70 points in 36 games! We think they keep XU under 70 here. We also think Gonzaga’s offense is held short of 70 in this one. While we look for XU’s offense to cool down, we also look for their defense to continue to play very well. They’ve allowed 65, 66, and 71 points in the tourney, the final two tallies coming against very good offensive teams (Florida State & Arizona). The Musketeers held their first 3 opponents to 41% and we can’t envision a struggling Gonzaga offense doing much more than that. UNDER is the play in this one. |
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03-24-17 | Wisconsin v. Florida UNDER 132 | Top | 83-84 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 132, Florida vs Wisconsin, Friday at 9:55 PM ET We expect a slow paced game here and with 2 of the top 7 teams in the nation in defensive efficiency, a low scoring one as well. Florida ranks 3rd in the nation in defensive efficiency and they’ve allowed only 104 total points in their 2 NCAA games. They just held Virginia to 39 points last weekend to get here. While we don’t expect them to do that to Wisconsin, the game will be played at a similar pace and Florida-UVA put up just 104 points. The two teams combined for only 104 shot attempts as well and converted on only 17 FT’s. A low shot total and few FT’s here again as neither team fouls very much. The Gators have held 14 of their last 19 opponents to less than 70 points and we don’t think the Badgers get there. Wisconsin ranks 7th in defensive efficiency and just held a much better offense (Villanova ranked 4th in offensive efficiency) to only 62 points. Florida is not a great shooting team if they are forced to play a half court game and that’s what Wisconsin will make them do here. Only 7 teams all season have topped 70 points on Wisconsin. That’s it. Four of those seven opponents ranked in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency (Michigan, UNC, Marquette, and Creighton when Watson was healthy). Florida is not nearly as potent offensively as those teams. Both defenses push the opposing offenses into long possessions and this one stays UNDER the total. |
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03-24-17 | South Carolina v. Baylor UNDER 135 | Top | 70-50 | Win | 100 | 46 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 135, Baylor vs South Carolina, Friday at 7:25 PM ET Two top notch defenses should control this game. The Gamecocks rank as the 4th most efficient defense in the nation while Baylor checks in with the 4th most efficient defense. Both stop units are far ahead of the offense. Especially South Carolina. We’re going to discount their first two offensive performances as outliers to the norm. They put up 93 on Marquette who came into the tourney with one of the least efficient defenses. The Gamecocks then had 23 points at halftime vs Duke, which is a normal-like SC performance, only to put up a ridiculous 65 points in the 2nd half. The most EVER in a half vs a Krzyzewski coached team. The fact is, this is a poor shooting team. The worst remaining in the tourney BY FAR. South Carolina ranks 306th nationally in eFG% (only 44 teams are worse). Of the teams remaining in the tourney Florida is the 2nd worst shooting team and they rank 116th nationally which gives you an idea of how poor this Gamecock team shoots. Now they face a Baylor team that plays zone and will make they shoot jump shots for the outside which usually doesn’t work for SC. The Bears shot nearly 49% in their first two NCAA games and both were high scoring. However, they were both vs lower tier defensive teams. So each offense has faced poor defenses thus far and now they run into a brick wall. The high scoring games these teams were involved in last week set this one up nicely for an UNDER play. |
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03-24-17 | Butler v. North Carolina UNDER 153 | Top | 80-92 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 153, Butler vs UNC, Friday at 7:05 PM ET Butler is a slow paced team and they know their best chance to win here is to keep this one a half-court game. While UNC wants to run, the slower paced usually gets the tempo they want as long as they aren’t getting blown out. That’s what we see happening here with Butler playing slow. Another key to beating UNC is keeping them off the offensive boards. Butler is a solid defensive rebounding team which will help (68th nationally) and our feel is they send everyone to the defensive boards to make sure UNC doesn’t dominate that aspect. Doing that will also take away chances for Butler pushing the ball after a rebound as everyone will be at the rim. Thus, they will most likely be walking the ball up after a defensive rebound. If the Heels are forced to play in a half court game, they are not a great shooting team. They rank 98th nationally in eFG% and that might be a bit skewed do to their offensive rebound put backs (basically many times turn into layups) and their points in transition – both should be limited here. The Bulldogs had 3 top 30 offenses (efficiency wise) in the Big East (Villanova, Marquette, & Xavier) and not one of those teams top 80 points (in 7 games). The Dogs held those opponents in their 7 match ups to an average of 69 PPG. UNC is a top offense but this line (with total factored in) is calling for UNC to reach 80+ points. We don’t think they will. On the flip side, it calls for Butler to reach 73 points (or so) and we don’t think that happens either. Butler is a solid shooting team but they are playing into the 19th most efficient defense in the nation. If this total stays where it is, it will be tied for the highest total all year for Butler. The other was vs Creighton early in the year with the Blue Jays were rolling and at full strength. The two totaled 139 in that game staying 14+ points below the number. In fact, Butler has topped 150 points (combined with opponent) just 6 times in 34 games this year. This one stays UNDER. |
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03-23-17 | Xavier v. Arizona UNDER 145 | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
We play UNDER 145 in the Xavier vs. Arizona game. Our math on this game suggests less than 140 total points and we'll be UNDER here. Pace of play has the biggest impact on this wager as we get two slower paced teams here with Arizona ranking 288th (of of 351) while Xavier is 245th. On average, Arizona takes 18.6 seconds to get a shot off which is 295th slowest, Xavier takes 17.6 seconds to shoot which is 211th. Xavier put up some solid offensive numbers their last two games but it came against two defenses that were ranked 70th and 98th in defensive efficiency ratings. Arizona is 41st in DEFF and they play in the Big 12 which is 7th in efficiency ratings. The Musketeers put up 91 points against Florida State the other night by shooting 55.6% from the field overall, 64.7% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are not normal considering Xavier shoots 45.8% overall and 34.9% from 3 on the season. In other words, expect a return to normal season averages tonight, especially against a Wildcat 'D' that allows just 41.8% from the field and 30.9% from the 3-point line. Arizona had a high scoring game against North Dakota but NDU is the 34th fastest paced team in college hoops. In Zona's game against St Mary's, the total ended with 129 total points and St Mary's is 251st in pace which is similar to Xavier. We continue to monitor the number on this game which will trend up as the public bets over, then immediately bounce lower as the sharps bet under. Go with the smart money here! BET UNDER! |
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03-17-17 | Marquette v. South Carolina OVER 141 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
PLAY OVER in the Marquette vs South Carolina game. The opening number on this game was 148 but has since been bet down to the current total of 141.5 and now the price is right for an OVER wager. Marquette is the 7th most efficient offense in the entire nation averaging 1.210 points per possession. They are 6th in eFG% at 57.6% and the #1 3-point shooting team in all college hoops. The Golden Eagles average possession length is 16.3 seconds which ranks 73rd overall in the county. Now the reason this line is low and has been bet down is because of South Carolina's poor offense. They are a bad shooting team at 46.7 eFG5 which is 316th in the nation BUT they are around average in pace of play and above average in average possession length at 16.6 seconds offensively. Where the Gamecocks will get their points is on the offensive glass where a small Marquette lineup will have a hard time blocking out. SC is the 44th best offensive rebounding team in the nation and even bad shooting teams can make layups. Two teams in the SEC that are very similar in raw statistics to Marquette are Arkansas and Auburn and when South Carolina played those two teams they combined for 167 and 159 total points. The value bet here is OVER the total! |
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03-17-17 | Michigan State v. Miami (FL) OVER 125.5 | 78-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
PLAY OVER 125.5 in the Michigan State vs. Miami FL game. Tipoff is 9:20PM ET. This is another VALUE bet on our part as the Vegas number has been set too low according to our Math Model or analytics. In fact, we are projecting a total of 137.6 points in this contest. The Big Ten is known as a slower, methodical offensive conference (26th of 32 in tempo) and Vegas sets their number accordingly knowing bettors will come 'under' on Big Ten games. But when they've posted a total of 130 or less on Big Ten teams in the opening round the 'over' players have been rewarded with a tidy profit. Despite playing slower the Big Ten is 15th or above average in offensive efficiency ratings. Yes, MSU plays slower but they also shoot it extremely well with the 43rd eFG% ratings in college hoops at 53.9%. They also shoot the 3's at 37.6% rate which is 60th in the nation and their overall efficiency rating of 1.105 points per possession is 68th in the NCAA. Yep, we know Miami plays slow too with the 338th slowest pace in the nation but they make up for it with an OEFF rating of 1.103PPP and an eFG% of 51.2% which is in the top half of the country. Both teams have a penchant for turning the ball over too which should lead to some easy baskets for both teams. Again, a lot of this wager is based on the value in the number. Michigan State games have totaled more than today's number in 13 of their last 16. Miami has gone over this number in 12 of their last 17. Easy bet OVER! |
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03-17-17 | USC v. SMU OVER 139 | 66-65 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
The play today is OVER 139 is the "3 letter teams" game of the day, USC versus SMU. Our computer analytics suggest 148 total points being scored in this game and we couldn't agree more. Both teams are very good offensively as the Trojans check in here with the 41st most efficient offense in college basketball averaging 1.132 points per possession. Their effective field goal percentage is 51.8 which is in the top third in D1. They are also 108th in 3-point percentage at 36.3% and they average just 16.1 seconds to get a shot off which is 54th fastest in college hoops. As good as USC is, SMU is better offensively. The Mustangs OEFF is 1.201PPP which is 10th best in college basketball and their eFG% is 31st best at 54.7%. They also shoot the 3-ball extremely well at 40.6% which is 5th best in the nation and USC does a horrible job defending beyond the arc by allowing 36.7% (271st). SMU does play slower but they make up for it by being so highly efficient in scoring. USC could be a little fatigued here which will impact their defense and help our OVER cause. When these two met earlier this season they combined for 151 total points which is well above today's number. The OVER is 6-1 in USC's last 7 non-conference games and 8-0 in SMU's last 8 games overall. BET OVER! |
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03-17-17 | Iona v. Oregon OVER 152 | Top | 77-93 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 152, Iona vs Oregon, Friday at 2:00 PM ET Iona is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and they shoot the ball very well. They are the 16th best 3-point shooting team in the nation and they hit 77% of their FT’s. Defensively they won’t scare anyone. They rank 203rd nationally in defensive efficiency and in their 3 games vs NCAA tourney teams this year they allowed 99, 91, and 75 points. The Ducks should be able to take advantage of that as they rank 16th in the nation in offensive efficiency and hit 80 or more points 12 times in Pac 12 play. To put that in perspective, only 4 Pac 12 teams rank lower than 112th in defensive efficiency so they put up points facing much better defenses for the most part. Iona has scored at least 80 points in 17 of their last 27 games. Oregon can play any pace and with Iona wanting to push we think the Ducks will be fine with that. High scoring here. |
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03-16-17 | South Dakota State v. Gonzaga OVER 156 | Top | 46-66 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 156 - South Dakota State vs Gonzaga, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET Tonight we play OVER in the South Dakota St vs Gonzaga game. As you already know we've been dialed in on college totals this month and this is a great match up for an OVER wager. Both teams want to play fast and score points in a hurry. South Dakota St comes from the Summit League which is the fastest paced, has the highest offensive efficiency rating and the #1 ranked eFG% conference in all of college basketball. South Dakota St was the 7th fastest paced team in the league at 70.5 possession per game but was also the most efficient at 1.162 points per possession in conference play. They were also the 2nd most efficient shooting team in the league with an eFG% of 56.9% As good as the conference was offensively, it was just as bad defensively. Not one team allowed less than 1.000 points per possession in conference play this season and SDST gave up 1.121PPP which was 308th out of 351 schools. Again, the Jack Rabbits were solid offensively though, ranking 62nd nationally in OEFF at 1.108PPP. The second part of this equation is of course Gonzaga. The Zags have the 10th most efficient offensive in college hoops at 1.207 points per possession and are the 72nd fastest paced team. Their average length of a possession is just 15.7 seconds which is 33rd in the nation. They shoot it extremely well too by hitting 38.2% (45th) of their 3-point attempts and 58.4% (4th) of their 2’s. Gonzaga has the 2nd best eFG% percentage in college hoops at 58%. Earlier this season the Zags played South Dakota who is eerily similar to South Dakota State and that game ended 102-65 in Gonzaga’s favor. Gonzaga has scored 90+ points in 5 of their last 12 games and last year they put up 90+ in the opening round of the tourney so we know they won’t be shy here. Plenty of points here by both! OVER is the bet! |
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03-15-17 | South Dakota v. Iowa OVER 164 | 75-87 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
ASA 8* PLAY ON Over 164, South Dakota @ Iowa, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET Tonight we play OVER in the South Dakota vs Iowa game. As you already know we've been dialed in on college totals this month and this was one matchup we were hoping for in the NIT. Both of these teams want to play fast and score points in a hurry. South Dakota comes from the Summit League which is the fastest paced, has the highest offensive efficiency rating and the #1 ranked eFG% conference in all of college basketball. South Dakota was the 2nd fastest paced team in the league at 73.6 possession per game! As good as the conference was offensively, it was just as bad defensively. Not one team allowed less than 1.000 points per possession in conference play this season. Overall, the Coyotes were 54th nationally in pace of play and 27th in terms of shot clock usage as they averaged just 15.5 seconds to get a shot up. The way Iowa plays they belong in the Summit with South Dakota. The Hawkeyes were the fastest paced team in the Big 10 at 70.5 possessions per game and averaged 1.049PPP in Big 10 play. Overall, the Hawks were 47th in the country in offensive efficiency ratings and the 39th fastest paced team. It took Iowa an average of just 15.4 seconds to get a shot up which was the 21st fastest in all of college basketball. To close out the regular season the Coyotes scored 90 or more points 4 of five games. Iowa has scored or allowed 83+ points in 8 of their last eleven games. The bet here is OVER! |
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03-15-17 | Akron v. Houston UNDER 147.5 | 78-75 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
We are going to PLAY UNDER 147.5 in the Akron versus Houston game in the NIT tonight. Game time is scheduled for 7:30PM ET. Houston comes from the American Athletic Conference which is the slowest (32nd) paced conference in major college hoops (66.3 possessions per game) and they have the 28th worst offensive efficiency rating at 1.013 points per possession. Houston is the 8th slowest team in league play but also have one of the better defenses allowing just .986 points per possession. Overall, the Cougers have the 73rd most efficient 'D' in college hoops allowing just .995PPP, 35th best eFG% defense allowing just 47% and 39th best TO%. In more basic statistics, UH limits opponents to 64.5 points per game on 40.7 percent shooting from the field and 32.7 percent from downtown with 6.7 made 3-pt FG per game. The Cougars caused 428 turnovers (13.8 tpg) while collecting 147 steals (3.3 stl/g) and 131 blocked shots (3.9 blk/g). Akron comes from a MAC conference that is 6th fastest in terms of pace but the Zips are 11th (of 12) in tempo within the MAC. On average, Akron takes 18.5 seconds to get a shot off which is the 291st slowest in all of college basketball. Houston takes on average 18.3 seconds to get a shot off which is 279th slowest. The Zips played 3 games in 3 days last weekend then had to travel so fatigue becomes a factor. In their last five games the Cougars and their opponents have combined to average just 132PPG. Lastly, this game is NOT being played on Houston's regular home court as they had to move it to Texas Southern's H&PE Arena so shooting lines for both teams won't be the same. The bet here is UNDER! |
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03-11-17 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee UNDER 159 | Top | 72-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
We will play UNDER 159 in the Marshall versus Middle Tennessee State game at 8:30PM ET tonight. We love this spot as several dynamics clearly favor a lower scoring game in this Conference USA championship game. Everyone knows about Marshall's game yesterday where they 'went off' from beyond the arc making 19 of 35 3-pointers against LA Tech. At halftime in that game Marshall scored 49 points and 42 came from 3. With this being their 4th game in four days, and four starters logging over 35 minutes yesterday, (3 had 33+ minutes the day before) we don't expect jumpers to be falling for the Herd against Middle Tennessee State today. Not to mention they WON'T get any second chance baskets as MTSU will DOMINATE the glass as they did in the two regular season meetings (+34 rebounds ). The Blue Raiders are also the 53rd best 3-point field goal percentage defense in the entire nation so Marshall isn't going 'off' from beyond the arc. In the two regular season meetings they held Marshall to just 295 and 26% shooting from 3. Middle Tennessee State is 1st in C-USA in defensive efficiency defense allowing just. 937 points per possession this year and 2nd in eFG% D at 46.6%. MTSU also knows they need to dictate the tempo in this game and the dominate team normally gets their way. The Blue Raiders are the 13th slowest team in the conference and 325th in the nation. In the two meetings this season the oddsmakers posted totals of 158 and 164.5 so we are still getting value at the current price even though the line has dropped. Our math model suggests just 150 total points in this contest and we agree whole heartedly! |
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03-10-17 | Alabama v. South Carolina OVER 122.5 | Top | 64-53 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
PLAY OVER 123 in the Alabama vs. South Carolina game today. The SEC is the 7th fastest paced conference in the nation and games average 147.3PPG which is substantially higher than this number. Our computer projections on this game is drastically higher than the Vegas number and we feel these two teams will combine for 135 or more points in this contest. In the only other meeting this season these two team totaled 176 points BUT that was in overtime. At the end of regulation though they had combined for just 114 total points which clearly would be under today's number. But South Carolina, who is not a good shooting team, hit just 26% in that game which is drastically lower than their season average of 41%. Games involving the Gamecocks when they are on the road have averaged 138PPG while games with Bama as the visitor have totaled 135PPG. Both of those number clearly higher than today's total set by the oddsmakers. If you've been following our successful O/U wagers you know we are high on 'value' and it's interesting to note that in a combined 62 games for these two teams, this is the lowest number posted by Vegas in any game this season. Bet OVER! |
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03-10-17 | East Carolina v. SMU OVER 127 | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
PLAY OVER 123 in the East Carolina vs SMU game. 12PM ET tipoff. Our Math Model projects 131 total points on this game which is a sizeable difference than the Vegas number. SMU is the most efficienct offense in the AAC averaging 1.201 points per possession which is one of the best OEFF ratings in college basketball. They don't play fast but they still manage to score because they offensive rebound like crazy (5th in nation) and shoot extremely well (eFG% 54.3%, 37th in nation). SMU will dominate the boards on the offensive end of the floor as ECU is 328th (out of 351) in terms of opponents offensive rebounds per game. That means plenty of easy opportunities for the Mustangs and more scoring. This number is set too low here as these same two team recently played and had a posted total of 126.5 and they combined for 132 total points in that game. In road contests this season: ECU and their opponents averaged 130PPG while SMU and their opponents averaged the same 130PPG. In both teams last five games they have averaged 138 and 151 total points. The value bet on this game is OVER the total. |
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03-09-17 | Virginia v. Notre Dame OVER 125 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 125, Notre Dame vs Virginia, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET We took OVER in the UVA-Pitt game last night and it easily eclipsed 117 as the two combined for 138 points. Now we get a much better offense with Notre Dame (17th in the nation in offensive efficiency) as compared to yesterday’s opponent (Pitt) and the number still sits in the low 120’s. Our math model predicts 133 which gives us nearly 10 points of value here. These two met once this season and the total on that game was set at 129.5 with UVA winning 71-54 (125 total points). The normally fine shooting Irish made just 41% of their shots overall and worse yet, only 3 of 18 from beyond the arc (16%). It was their lowest offensive output of the season and in fact the only time this year ND was held under 60 points. On the other end of the court, the ND defense, which is middle of the pack in the ACC in efficiency, has not held one team under 60 points in ACC play this year. That would lead us to believe that both teams get to at least the 60’s here which would mean a very strong likelihood this one goes OVER. |
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03-09-17 | Rutgers v. Northwestern OVER 122.5 | Top | 61-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 122.5, Rutgers vs Northwestern, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET Big value here on the OVER according to our numbers. Our math model as this one set at 131.5 which is an 8.5 point advantage. Looking at the two meetings this year, the oddsmakers set totals of 132 and 131 on those games and now we sit in the low 120’s. In one meeting the two teams combined for 134 points and 129 in the other. That obviously means both eclipsed this number, and fairly easily. The stats in those games were far from impressive as the two teams combined to shoot only 39% and just 22% from beyond the arc (both games combined). Yesterday Rutgers faced off against Ohio State and the two totaled 123 (right at this number) despite shooting terribly at 38% and missing 19 FT’s. The Scarlet Knights have combined with their opponent to score less than 123 points just 4 times in their 19 Big Ten games. NW combined with their Big Ten opponents to score less than 123 just 2 times in 18 games. This one has been adjusted too far and we grab the OVER. |
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03-09-17 | Montana v. Idaho OVER 139 | Top | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 139 Montana vs Idaho game. Let’s start with the facts that the Big Sky games this year have averaged 150 total points per game and every team averages more than 1.000 points per possession AND allow more than a point per possession. The Big Sky is also the 10th fastest paced conference in the nation which means more scoring opportunities. In their two meetings, this season both games finished UNDER the total but current trends tell us this will be a higher scoring game. When playing on the road this season (better indicator for tourney games), Montana and Idaho games have averaged 147 total points per game. In their most recent games, Montana is averaging 154 total points per game and Idaho is averaging 149. These two teams have favored the OVER all season long in conference play with a combined record of 20-15. Our math model projects 147.5 total points for this game and we couldn’t agree more! |
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03-09-17 | Texas-San Antonio v. Middle Tennessee OVER 128.5 | Top | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY OVER 129 Texas San Antonio vs Middle Tennessee State, 12:30PM ET – This will be a tougher wager to make but the averages and computer math model projects a total on this game of 135 which is 6 full points higher than the Vegas number. Again, our math model continues to predict O/U’s at a ridiculous rate and we won’t buck the system here. In the lone meeting this season these two combined for 128 total points but Middle Tennessee State was coming off a HUGE conference win and simply played down to a bad UTSA teams level. This is playoff basketball and a rested MTSU team, which is the best in the conference, is going to motivated and focused here. Even though UTSA can struggle offensively at times, their games have finished with more total points than today’s number in 7 of their last 8. On the road this season UTSA games have averaged 139 total points while MTSU road games averaged that same 139PPG. In their last five games these two teams are averaging 132 (UTSA) and 146 (MTSU) total points per game. Middle Tennessee State is the most efficient offense in C-USA AT 1.113 points per possession which is also one of the better numbers in the entire country. Conference USA games average over 142PPG on the season and we feel these two teams get to the 139 range and an EASY OVER! |
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03-09-17 | Davidson v. La Salle UNDER 148.5 | 82-73 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY UNDER 148.5 Davidson vs LaSalle - Noon ET – Our Math Model continues to kick out winners at an unbelievable rate and we’ve been very selective in the picks we’ve posted. Today we post all the picks supplied by our computer to make you more money. Our programs tells us to take the under in this game and suggests the total points scored will be 142. These two teams are literally average in terms of offensive efficiency ratings and rank in the middle of the conference at 1.037 points per possession (LaSalle) and 1.034PPP (Davidson). Defensively, the league average is 1.022 points per possession which is Davidson’s number and LaSalle allows slightly more at 1.061PPP. The biggest factor in this under wager is the pace of play as these two teams are two of the slower paced teams in Atlantic 10. All A-10 games this season in conference play have average 140.9PPG which is also an indicator for these two similar teams. In their last five games Davidson and their opponent is averaging 141 total points while LaSalle games in their last five have averaged 135 total points. BET UNDER! |
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03-08-17 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia OVER 116 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 116, Pittsburgh vs Virginia, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET These two just met in Virginia on Saturday and the total was set at 122. Thus, just based on that, we’re looking at a 6 point value here. Our math model sits at 130 for this one so a full 14 point advantage to the OVER. A heavy part of the reasoning for this total sitting so low is the result from last Saturday. UVA won that game 67-42 so 109 total points were scored. The Panthers made only 15 of their 45 shots (33%) including just 4 of 20 from beyond the arc (20%). UVA was nothing special at 42% for the game. On top of that, the two combined to attempt only 10 FT’s in the entire game. They made all 10 but 10 made FT’s in a game is extremely low. However, despite all of that these two still reached 109 points which isn’t all that far off this number. Pitt scored just 15 points in the first half of that game but seemed to get it together a bit in the 2nd half with 27 so expect a carryover here and a much better offensive performance. Let’s also not forget when these two met the first time this season, they put up 138 points in regulation (Pitt won in OT). UVA’s defense is well known, however they are MUCH better at home than they are on the road. At home they allow just 54 PPG on 39% shooting and on the road they give up 63 PPG on 43% shooting. If Pitt would have had this total (currently 116) set for every game this year, they would have gone under only twice with 29 overs. Even UVA would be sitting at 18 overs and 12 unders if all of their totals were set at 116. This total has been over adjusted too far and we grab the OVER. |
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03-07-17 | Idaho State v. CS Sacramento OVER 139 | Top | 76-91 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #719/720 OVER 139 IDAHO STATE vs SACRAMENTO STATE, 8:30PM ET - This is clearly one of our computer plays and based on value and year long, in conference statistics. When these two teams met earlier this year the Vegas Total was set at 146 and this line opened 143 before dropping to 139. That's a full 7 points of value compared to the earlier meeting! Our math on this game suggests 148 total points and we couldn't agree more with it. The Big Sky league average is 150PPG. Both of these teams rank near the bottom of the entire country in defensive efficiency ratings as Idaho State allows 1.119PPP (339th) while Sacramento State allows 1.118PPP which is 338th out of 351 D1 schools. Easy OVER call here. |
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03-07-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Northern Kentucky OVER 133 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER 133, UW Milwaukee vs Northern Kentucky, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET This total opened 136.5 and has dropped to 133 and we’re jumping on the value here. Our math model has this one at 144 so now we’re getting double digit value to the OVER. We have two of the better shooting teams in the Horizon facing off in this one. N Kentucky is the #1 eFG% team in the conference and UWM is 3rd. Both also rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency. For the season NKU is averaging 75 PPG but they’ve really turned it up as of late averaging 84 PPG over their last 5. The Norse have scored 84 & 82 points in their two Horizon League tourney games. Milwaukee has put up 70 PPG over their last 5 and that includes an offensive stinker in the 2nd game of this tourney when they beat Valpo 43-41. Throw that game out the window as Valpo played without their leading scorer and conference player of the year (Peters) which took a big portion of their offense out of the lineup. The two teams were also both had a horrendous shooting night combining to make only 31 shots the entire game (32% from the field). They also made just 9 of 39 combined from beyond the arc. Just one of those games. In their other two games in the tourney UWM put up 85 & 74 points. When these two met this year they had lower scoring games with the combined numbers at 132 & 126. That, however, sets this total up too low with how these offenses are playing now. Also with UWM playing their 4th game in 5 nights and NKU playing their 3rd straight night, the defenses could tire here. Finally, with an NCAA tourney bid on the line, there will be no “give up” in this one so their will most likely be some scrambling and fouling late depending on the score. We like the OVER here. |
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03-06-17 | Central Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 166.5 | Top | 106-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
We are going to play UNDER in the Central Michigan versus Kent State game. Our Math Model suggests a total output on this game of 160 which is well below the opening total set on this game of 170.5. Since the line came out this game has been bet down to 166.5 but there is still value in the number per our computers. CMU just played Western Michigan who is a more efficient offense compared to Kent and worse defensively and CMU/WMU scored 168 total points which is barely more than tonight’s number. Kent is the 4th most efficient defense in the MAC and they’ve held 5 straight opponents to less than 70 points. In that 5 games run the Zips held the MAC’s #1 offensive efficiency team, Akron, to 66 and 67 points in two games. Granted Central Michigan’s defense hasn’t been good this season and especially poor lately but in their last five game, four team have been better than Kent’s which is 9th in the MAC in OEFF and 10th in eFG% shooting just 48.3%. In the lone meeting, earlier this season between these two teams they combined for 203 total points by 35 game in OT. With the pressure of the tourney on both teams we don’t see them getting near that number today. BET UNDER! |
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03-06-17 | East Tennessee State v. NC-Greensboro OVER 137 | Top | 79-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 137, UNC Greensboro vs East Tennessee State, Monday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2 Our math model, which has been very successful on college totals down the stretch, has this one pegged at 147 so a double digit advantage for the OVER here. These two met twice this year with the totals set at 144 & 145 which is well above where this one is set. The two meetings ended with final scores of 83-79 (162 points) and 72-66 (138 points). In the game that reached 162 points, both teams shot well hitting right around 50% of their shots. However, in the game that made it to 138, which would go OVER the current number, that was not the case. In that game the two teams combined to make only 42% of their shots and 35% of their 3’s. Nothing fantastic there and the still nearly hit 140. UNCG and ETSU are two of the faster paced teams in the Southern Conference (2nd and 3rd in tempo) and they both shoot the ball well (2nd and 3rd in conference eFG%). In conference play, including the Southern Tourney thus far, ETSU has reached at least 70 points in 15 of their 20 games (75%). UNCG has gotten to at least 70 points in 16 of their 20 games (80%). If both get to 70, this one goes OVER. We think they do. Take the value with the OVER in this one. |
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03-06-17 | South Dakota State v. South Dakota OVER 152 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
The analytics on the South Dakota vs. South Dakota State says bet OVER 152 and we couldn't agree more. The Summit is one of the faster paced, higher scoring conferences in the country and not known for their defense. Summit league games this year have averaged 159.3PPG and today we have a total set that is less than 'average'. South Dakota has the best DEFF in the conference play, allowing 1.029 points per possession but their overall defensive efficiency rating is 156th in the nation or not very good. South Dakota State is 7th in the Summit in DEFF in conference play and 329th (out of 352) in the nation in DEFF allowing 1.096PPP. On the other side of the ball, South Dakota State has the 52nd best offensive efficiency rating in all of college basketball this season at 1.078PPP and in just conference play that number improves to 1.162PPP. South Dakota is 7th in the Summit in OEFF, which doesn't sound great, but they are 127th in the country overall at 1.035PPP which is good. These same two teams just met in late February and combined for 180 total points and Vegas has adjusted this number down on this game compared to the earlier meeting. In their last five games SDST and their opponents are averaging 164 total points. In that same 5 game span, SDAK, combined with their foe is averaging 168 total points. Combined these two are 19-5 OVER run in Summit league play. |
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03-05-17 | Denver v. South Dakota State OVER 150 | Top | 73-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
TOP TOTAL - OVER Denver vs South Dakota State, 7pm ET - Based on our analytics the total points scored in this game will be 159 which is well above the posted total. In both teams last five games they've been shooting the ball exceptionally well as Denver, as a team, is hitting nearly 47% from the field while South Dakota State is shooting 50%. On the other end of the court neither team has played much defense lately either. Denver has allowed foes to make nearly 50% of their FG attempts while SDST has allowed opponents to make 47%. The last game these two teams played was against each other on this same court Feb 25th and that game had a total of 154.5 on the game and they combined for 152 total points. Denver has the 3rd best eFG% in the Summit at 55.5% and South Dakota State has the 3rd worst efficiency defense in the conference but yet Denver scored just 64 points (10 less than season average) on 41% shooting. Denver has played OVER the total in 17 of their last 22 Summit league games while SDST is on a 10-4 OVER run in conference games. Let's not forget the league average for Summit league games this year is 159.3PPG. Bet OVER! |
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03-04-17 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. North Dakota State OVER 147.5 | Top | 76-57 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 147.5, North Dakota State vs IUPUI, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET Our computer math model, which has been extremely accurate with college totals over the last month or so, predicts 155 on this game so we’ll go OVER. These two met twice this season with the two teams totaling 182 & 167, albeit the 2nd one was in overtime. The Summit League is not known for their defensive prowess as league games average 159 PPG this year. Both are solid shooting teams and IUPUI puts up 78 PPG while NDSU averages 76 PPG. IUPUI’s defense allows the highest shooting % in the Summit at 47.3%. They allowed over 80 points in more than half of their conference games this year (9 of 17). While NDSU did play solid defense at times this year, when they faced the top scoring offenses in the league, they nearly all led to high scoring games. When facing IUPUI, IPFW, and Nebraska Omaha (6 games vs these opponents), the 3 top scoring teams in the conference, only once did a game end under 150 points. These teams have played to the OVER all season long combining for a 36-14 OVER record. This one is set too low and we like another high scoring affair. |
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03-03-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 170.5 | Top | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
Today we play UNDER in the Central Michigan at Western Michigan game. The number on this game opened around 175 and has since been played down to the current number but we still feel there is plenty of value left with an UNDER wager. Our math suggests a total output on this game of 161.5 which is significantly less than the total set on this MAC clash. These same ‘Michigan’ teams recently met in Central and produced 168 total points. Western is the more dominate team here, at home, and they’ll instill their will on the flow of the game which means a slower tempo contest. WMU is 11th in the conference in pace of play and will do everything to keep CMU from playing fast (1st in MAC). The average total points scored in MAC games this year is 152. Western Michigan has been especially stingy defensively their last three games having allowed 56 or less points in each of those games, and one was an OT affair. CMU is shooting just 38.7% their last five games and will have some issues scoring here against the Broncos. Based on comparable opponents we predict a total right around 160. BET UNDER! |
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03-02-17 | Rice v. Marshall UNDER 182 | 89-88 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 182, Rice @ Marshall, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET This is a huge VALUE play according to our Math Model which projects a total on this game of 157 based on season averages. Not only that but Vegas posted a number on this game of 177.5 but it's since gone up to the current number which is fine with us as we grab the added points. Marshall is one of the fastest paced teams in the country and in Conference USA but they are 5th in the conference in offensive efficiency ratings. They did just play Charlotte and totaled 182 points and even though Charlotte is similar to Rice in terms of offense, they are dramatically worse in defensive efficiency ratings (Charlotte allows 1.084 points per possession / Rice allows 1.000PPP). When playing on the road this year, Rice and their opponents have averaged 156 total points per game while the Herd and their foes have averaged 169 when playing in Marshall. In both teams last five games their overall team field goal percentage is trending down and we don't see either of these teams getting to the 90's in this one tonight. |
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02-28-17 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois OVER 140 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: OVER 140 in the Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois game. The MAC conference as a whole is very high scoring conference as their games average 152 total points on the season, and tonight we have value with this number that has simply been set to low. Based on our projections this game should finish with 149 total points and go OVER the number. These same two teams just met in mid-February and totaled 143 total points in Western Michigan. NIU hit just 39% from the field overall and made just 5 of 19 3-pointers. WMU didn't have a great shooting night either at just 43% and they missed 9 free throws as a team but combined they still scored 143 which would net a winner here. You can expect a much better shooting night from the Huskies tonight as they have shot over 44% as a team at home this season while Western Michigan has hit an average over 45% their last five games and scored nearly 80PPG. WMU recently played an Eastern Michigan team that is very similar in terms of pace, OEFF and DEFF to Northern Illinois and they combined for 168 total points. We can also make the comparison between Akron and WMU (tempo, OEFF and DEFF) and see that NIU recently played the Zips and they combined for 149 total points. |
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02-28-17 | Indiana v. Purdue UNDER 150.5 | 75-86 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 150.5 Indiana @ Purdue, 7PM ET. Our predictive analytics project the total points to be scored in this game is 144.6 which is enough of a difference compared to the Vegas number to warrant a wager. These same two teams just met on Feb 9th and combined for 133 total points. The last six meetings between these rivals has resulted in 150 or less total points. Purdue has the best defense in the Big Ten allowing just .984 points per possession in conference play and just 66.7PPG overall on the season. In their last five games the Boilermakers have held foes to an average of just 42.6% shooting and 66.8PPG. They are coming off a loss at Michigan where they gave up 82 points so expect a concentrated effort on that end of the floor tonight. Indiana has struggled to score on the road this year by averaging just 69.2PPG when away from Bloomington. The Hoosiers have shot just 42.4% away from home on the season and just 41.5% their last five on any court. Our game simulator has crunched the numbers with comparable opponents to both teams and predicts UNDER too. Under 5-2 L7 overall for Purdue while IU has an under streak of 5-1 against teams of Purdue's caliber. |
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02-28-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Central Michigan UNDER 172 | Top | 109-81 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
UNDER EASTERN MICHIGAN @ CENTRAL MICHIGAN - We nailed another easy Total winner last night in college as our late season predictive math model is honed in. Today our favorite O/U wager on the board is UNDER in the Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan game. Our projected number on this game is 158 which is substantially lower than the Vegas number. When looking at a few comparable opponents (Kent State and No. Illinois) to Eastern Michigan we find Central Michigan scored 170 and 155 versus NIU and 166 versus Kent State (*In regulation*). Those two teams have similar tempo and efficiency ratings to EMU which gives us a great baseline for tonight’s contest. On the flip side, there are some similar numbers for Ball State and Central Michigan and when Eastern played Ball State twice this season they totaled 166 and 151. These two Michigan teams have already squared off this season and that game ended with 148 total points. EMU is shooting just 42.9% on the road this year and CMU is struggling shooting at just 39.8% as a team their last five games. The UNDER is 8-1 the last nine meetings with the highest total points scored in the last 10 meetings being 179 which barely crawls over tonight’s number. In fact, the average total points scored in the last 10 clashes is just 130 total points per game. |
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02-27-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 164 | Top | 77-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
We will play UNDER 164 in the UL Lafayette @ Appalachian State game. Vegas posted a number on this game of 166 and it was immediately bet down to 164 but it hasn’t moved enough per our predictive math model which suggests a total of 152 on this game. Let’s not forget the Sunbelt league average total points scored per game is 143.7PPG so you can see for yourself this number is over-inflated. Yes, these are two of the faster paced teams in the conference but based on comparable opponents this game won’t come close to the posted Total. Appalachian State shoots just 40.3% at home on the season which makes them one of the worst shooting teams at home in the Sun Belt, and they allow just 43.7% at home which is drastically better than their overall season % allowed. They average and allow less than 70PPG when playing at home on the season. ULL struggles to shoot on the road at just 42.6% and their road contests have averaged just 153 total points per game. App State has played UNDER in 8 of their last eleven at home. BET UNDER! |
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02-26-17 | Illinois v. Nebraska OVER 137.5 | Top | 73-57 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
OVER 137.5 Illinois @ Nebraska, 7:30PM ET – We wish we could bet this game at the opening line of 133 but even though we can’t, we still feel there is enough value to play OVER on this number. In fact, our math model projects 142 total points on this game and we feel it will be even higher than that. In the first meeting of the season these two teams combined for 145 total points which pushed the Vegas number. These two teams are both in the bottom half of the Big 10 in terms of offensive efficiency ratings but they are also in the bottom of the conference in defensive efficiency ratings. Illinois allows 1.056 points per possession and Nebraska allows 1.063PPP. On the season the Illini are averaging 143 total points per game with their opponents when playing on the road while Nebraska home games have averaged that same number of 143. Granted, Illinois averages are down their past 5 games but they played Northwestern twice in that 5-game span and they are the 3rd slowest paced team in the Big Ten and one of the better defensive teams. The Cornhuskers are 5th in the Big Ten in pace of play and they’ll set the tempo at home today. The bet here is OVER the total! |
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02-25-17 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Western Illinois OVER 154.5 | Top | 96-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
PLAY ON: #711/712 OVER 154.5 IPFW @ Western Illinois, 8:30PM ET – We just successfully played over in a Western Illinois game earlier this week and tonight they face one of the fastest paced teams in the Summit League in IPFW. The Summit League is known for faster paced, higher scoring teams and not known for their defense. Conference games this year have averaged 158.6PPG and today’s number offers some value. When these same two teams met earlier this season they combined for 184 total points and an OVER which tie into a trend for these two conference foes. IPFW has a 22-8 OVER record their last 30 conference games, while WIU has played OVER in 14 of their last 18 in Summit League play. In their most recent action, IPFW (+ foe) is averaging 174 total points per game while Western Illinois and their opponents are averaging 156PPG. Vegas has set this number a shade too low and we’ll step in with a play on the OVER! |
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02-25-17 | Marshall v. Charlotte UNDER 179.5 | 93-89 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
PLAY ON: UNDER 179 Marshall @ Charlotte, 6PM ET – Our math model projects a total on this game of just 160.1 total points which is DRASTICALLY lower than the number Vegas has set on this game. Based on our calculations we just don’t see this game going over the number. Granted, the first meeting between these two teams ended with 203 total points but Marshall had a ridiculous second half in that game as they hit over 61% from the field and near 67% from beyond the arc. These two teams have had just 1 posted Total by Vegas of 179 or more and that was the earlier meeting in the season. If we look at both teams last five games, we see Charlotte and their opponents are averaging just 146 total points per game which is much lower than their season average of 155. Marshall is in the same boat as they are average 162 total points their last five versus their season average of 170. Both teams are also shooting less than 44% their last five games which falls below season numbers too. Conference USA games average 142 total points per game and even though these two are faster paced we must bet with the law of averages. BET UNDER! |
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02-24-17 | Oakland v. Green Bay UNDER 163 | 85-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Tonight we play UNDER 163 in the Oakland @ UW Green Bay game. Sticking with our mathematical approach to Totals we calculate the total number of points being scored on this game at 151.5 which is dramatically lower than the number Vegas has set. Yes, this game features two of the faster paced teams in the conference but they are also two of the most efficient defenses in the league. Oakland allows just .963 points per possession while Green Bay allows just .991. Not only are those good numbers in the Horizon conference but they’re also solid nationally with Oakland 57th and UWGB 124th. In their last five games these two defenses have locked down opponents by allowing less than 42% shooting by opponents and less than 73PPG. Oakland is coming off a rare 100+ point game but that was against one of the two worst defensive teams in the Horizon and we expect a return to reality tonight. The first meeting of the season between these two teams ended with 152 total points which is where we feel tonight’s game ends up. BET UNDER! |
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02-24-17 | Central Michigan v. Toledo UNDER 176.5 | Top | 66-87 | Win | 100 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
Today we play UNDER 176.5 in the Central Michigan @ Toledo game. The league average total points scored per game in the MAC this year is 152 and today we have a Total that is set nearly 20 points higher. Our predictive model projects a total on this game that is full 12-points less than the number Vegas has posted which is HIGHLY unusual. Toledo is the dominate team here and will dictate tempo which is key. The Rockets are 12th in the conference when it comes to tempo or pace so they’ll want to play slow. Not to mention they are coming off a huge game against Western Michigan and have a bigger game on deck versus Ball State. Yes, the Chippewas want to play fast (1st in MAC pace) but again, Toledo won’t allow it. On their home floor, in conference games, the Rockets and their opponents have NOT totaled more than 167 points and those contests averaged 142 total points. In the first meeting of the season these two combined for 184 total points but that was at Central Michigan. CMU has had issues shooting the basketball of late as they are averaging less than 42% as a team from the field their last five games. The UNDER has cashed 7 of the last 9 meetings and should win again tonight with this inflated number! |
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02-23-17 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois OVER 146 | Top | 92-81 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
PLAY ON: OVER 146 SOUTH DAKOTA @ WESTERN ILLINOIS - We have a fantastic play for you tonight on the OVER in the South Dakota @ Western Illinois game. This Summit League game has all the makings of a very high scoring game and we expect plenty of points by both teams here. When we run the numbers through our predictive math model we come up with a Total that is 6.5 points higher than the posted number tonight. That’s a substantial difference by our algorithm and immediately gets our attention. Summit League games average 158 total points per game and this number set by Vegas is substantially lower than that. S Dakota is the 2nd fastest paced team in the conference and Western Illinois is the 4th fastest. Defensively these two teams are top four in terms of efficiency ratings but ‘defense’ is a loose term in this conference and both teams have been giving up a ton of points lately. South Dakota has given up an average of 80PPG their last five games on 46% shooting by opponents. In that same 5 games span Western Illinois has allowed 83PPG on 48% shooting by foes. There is one team in the conference that is very like both teams and that’s Nebraska-Omaha. South Dakota recently played at NEOM and they combined for 174 total points. Western Illinois hosted NEOM on Feb 1st and they combined for 146 total points. The Over has cashed in 5 straight SD road games. The Over is also 9-3 the last Western Illinois home games. See the trend…BET OVER! |
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02-23-17 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas UNDER 147.5 | Top | 85-67 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
ASA UNDER 147.5 in the Louisiana Tech @ North Texas game, 8PM ET - Based on our math model this game projects out to have under 143.5 total points and we agree with its prognosis. The league average for total points scored in this conference 142 and we feel these two teams will be much closer to that number than the one Vegas has posted. When these same two teams met in late January they combined for 138 total points which was the O/U the oddsmakers had suggested. Which also shows the value we are getting here as tonight's number is much higher than the 138 from the first meeting. North Texas is the 3rd worst efficiency offensive team in the conference at just .956 points per possession and the 309th (out of 351) overall eFG% team in the nation at just 47%. The Mean Green will have a hard time scoring here against a La Tech team that has the 3rd best efficiency defense in Conference USA, allowing just .954 points per possession. The Bulldogs average 80PPG at home on the season but that number dips to just 72PPG on the road. With La Tech being the superior team they'll dictate tempo in this one and should keep this from being a high scoring affair. In their 7 conference road games the Bulldogs and their opponents have average 138 combined total points. |
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02-22-17 | Furman v. East Tennessee State OVER 141 | Top | 81-93 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: #765/766 OVER the 141 Total Furman @ East Tennessee State, 7PM ET- We are going to play OVER the Total in the East Tennessee State versus Furman tonight in the Southern Conference showdown. First place is on the line tonight as Furman currently leads the SoCon with a 13-3 record but ETSU is right behind them at 12-3. These are basically the top two teams in the SoCon in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and when we look at similar teams and home/road dichotomies we expect a high scoring game tonight. ETSU starts 4 seniors who will be playing their final home game in front of a sellout crowd (lead conference in attendance and the fans will be rabid tonight). The Bucs are also playing with same season revenge as they had a HORRIBLE shooting night at Furman (14% from 3-point line, 37% overall) and lost 62-75 for 137 Total points. That was uncharacteristic for ETSU who is the 7thth best shooting team in the nation at 49.3%. Furman can also light it up from the field as they rank 40th in the country in shooting at 47.4% as a team. As we touched on earlier, Furman is 2nd in the SoCon in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.111 points per possession and have the 2nd best eFG% at 56.9%. They typically take 17.9 seconds to get a shot off which is 6th in the conference. ETSU is 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.110PPP and 1st in eFG% at 57.7%. They play fast too, averaging just 16.1 seconds to take a shot which is 2nd fastest in the SoCon. East Tenn State has a goal of getting to 80 points as they are a perfect 12-0 SU this year when they top that mark. Our Math Model projects a Total of 146.5 on this game and the league average is nearly 148PPG so you can see for yourself the value we are getting at 141. |
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02-21-17 | Ohio v. Miami (OH) UNDER 149 | 79-62 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
We are going to play UNDER 149 in the Ohio U @ Miami OH game tonight. Our Math Model projects a total less than tonight's number and based on the pace of play, offensive and defensive efficiency numbers we expect a lower scoring game tonight. About the two teams. Through 25 games in 2016-17, Ohio ranks second in the MAC and 129th in the nation with 70.5 points allowed per game, first in the league and 54th in the country with a 41.1 percent field goal percentage defense and first in the league and 59th in the country with a 32.5 percent three-point field goal percentage defense. The Bobcats have held the opposition to under 70 points in 12 games. Miami ranks last in the league in points per game (71.8) and rebounding margin (-3.2), 11th in three-point field goal percentage (31.6 percent). Miami OH is the worst offensive team in the MAC as they average less than .99 points per possession and have the 9th worst eFG% in the conference at 49%. They'll have a hard time scoring against a Ohio U defense that is 3rd overall in the conference in DEFF, 3nd in eFG% at 48% against. Both teams are middle of the pack in terms of pace of play, but a bad shooting Miami OH team is 9th in the league in average offensive possession length at 17.5 per. Last season these two teams met twice and those two contests finished with 132 and 140 total points. We predict a final total points tonight of 140. |
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02-21-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 152 | 72-79 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
Play OVER 152 Eastern Michigan @ Ball State, 7PM ET. The league average for total points scored in the MAC is 153.5 total points per game. Knowing the 'average' we then look at where these two teams stand in efficiency ratings, tempo, shooting etc...Ball State is 6th in the MAC in offensive efficiency ratings (average) while EMU is 9th at 1.031 points per possession (Ball State is 1.085PPP). Eastern Michigan is 4th in defensive efficiency rating while Ball State is 6th. Both what makes this wager attractive is their average possession length which is 3rd and 4th fastest in the conference, meaning they get shots up quickly in their perspective possessions. Both teams shoot it well from the free throw line which obviously helps in a close game (Vegas has Ball State a 2.5-point favorite) so that is just an added bonus. In the one meeting earlier this season these two combined for 168 total points when the O/U was 153. Last season when they met on this court they combined for 194 total points. Ball State is at home and will set the tempo in this game and they are the second fastest paced team in the conference so EMU will be forced to play along. Since 2013 Ball State is 29-17 OVER at home or 63%. They've also got a long term 44-18 OVER record their last 62 MAC games, 6-1 OVER at home in conference play this season. |
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02-21-17 | Purdue v. Penn State UNDER 146 | Top | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
We are going to play UNDER 146 in the Purdue @ Penn State game tonight. We love several different dynamics to this wager including a line that is 6-points higher than Big Ten games average, plus the fact a high percentage of public money has been bet on the OVER already but the line isn't moving. That tells me they'll take all the action they can on OVER because they like UNDER. Purdue is in a tough scheduling spot here and could be flat for this contest. They are off a big win over Michigan State and have a road date at Michigan on deck. Plus, they beat this PSU team 77-52 earlier this season. The Boilermakers have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten allowing just .97 points per possession. In their last five contests they have held foes to an average of just 38.3% shooting which is ridiculously low. Penn State is 'average' or 7th in the Big Ten in DEFF allowing 1.016PPP and they've been solid at home defensively allowing just 68.7PPG on their home floor and 40.4% shooting by opponents. Both teams struggle shooting when on the road (Purdue 42.1%) and at home (PSU 41.5%). The Nittany Lions just hosted a very similar team to Purdue (OEFF, DEFF and pace) in Maryland a few weeks back and they combined for 134 total points. Purdue hosted Rutgers just last week who has very similar stats to Penn State and they combined for 129 total points. The Under is on a 19-6 run the last 25 meetings, 4-1 Under last 5 games for Purdue and 9-4 L13 home games for PSU. |
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02-08-17 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State UNDER 148.5 | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 148.5 Points - Baylor @ Oklahoma State, Wed at 7:00 PM ET Baylor is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (#330) and they know to win this game they have to make it a grinder. OSU wants to get up and down, however if one of the two teams wants to play slow, they usually get control of the tempo. That will be the case here similar to the first meeting this year when Baylor topped OSU 61-57. The Bears have one of the top defenses in the nation ranking 6th in defensive efficiency, 8th in eFG% defense while allowing just 61 PPG on the season. They’ve allowed only 3 opponents to reach 70 points in Big 12 play. The Cowboys offense has been putting points on the board, however they’ve played mainly fast paced teams as of late. Those type of teams play right into the hands of the Okie State squad. There are only really 2 slower paced teams in the conference (Baylor & Texas Tech) and in those games the OSU total points scored were 118 & 147, both under today’s number. In their game vs Tech where the two totaled 147, the team’s combined to shoot 50% overall and nearly 50% from 3 and still stayed UNDER the number. We don’t envision those type of shooting numbers tonight. We know Baylor’s defense is top notch but OSU’s is much better than their overall season numbers. They’ve changed their defensive philosophy over the last few weeks changing from a pressure defense to more of a man to man, gap help defense. It’s really helped as in their last 5 games their opponents have only hit 43% of their shots. Baylor’s offense is struggling shooting 35%, 42%, and 38% their last 3 games so don’t expect them to break out here. Baylor knows how they have to play to win games – slow with defense. Of their 10 Big 12 games this year, 9 have stayed under this current total. Add another one tonight. Play the UNDER here. |
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02-01-17 | Villanova v. Providence OVER 136 | 66-57 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER in Providence Friars vs Villanova Wildcats, Wednesday at 7 PM ET: Game 545 |
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01-31-17 | Wisconsin v. Illinois OVER 132.5 | Top | 57-43 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the total in Wisconsin Badgers @ Illinois Illini, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET: Game No. 755 |
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01-26-17 | Indiana v. Michigan OVER 145 | Top | 60-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the total (145) in Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan Wolverines, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET: Game No. 739 |
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01-23-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma State OVER 155.5 | Top | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the total (155.5) in Oklahoma State Cowboys vs TCU Horned Frogs, Monday at 7:00 PM ET: Game No. 527 |
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01-17-17 | Illinois v. Purdue OVER 144 | Top | 68-91 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on OVER the total (144) in Purdue Boilermakers vs Illinois Illini, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET: Game No. 715 |
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ASA NCAA-B Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-30-18 | San Francisco v. North Texas OVER 140 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143.5 | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
03-23-18 | Syracuse v. Duke UNDER 133.5 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
03-22-18 | Kansas State v. Kentucky UNDER 138.5 | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan UNDER 136.5 | Top | 72-99 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
03-20-18 | Mississippi State v. Louisville UNDER 144 | 79-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
03-15-18 | St Bonaventure v. Florida UNDER 143 | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
03-15-18 | Iona v. Duke UNDER 157.5 | 67-89 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
03-10-18 | North Carolina v. Virginia OVER 125 | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
03-09-18 | St. Louis v. Davidson UNDER 125.5 | 60-78 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
03-08-18 | Notre Dame v. Duke UNDER 143.5 | Top | 70-88 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
03-08-18 | Alabama v. Texas A&M OVER 138.5 | 71-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
03-01-18 | Texas-San Antonio v. North Texas UNDER 148.5 | Top | 62-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
02-19-18 | Cleveland State v. Wright State OVER 136 | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
02-16-18 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 132.5 | Top | 76-71 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
02-13-18 | Northwestern v. Rutgers UNDER 125 | Top | 58-67 | Push | 0 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
02-08-18 | Towson v. Drexel OVER 147.5 | 94-92 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
02-06-18 | St. Joe's v. Davidson UNDER 145.5 | 62-91 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
01-30-18 | Rutgers v. Illinois UNDER 134.5 | Top | 60-91 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
01-30-18 | Buffalo v. Kent State UNDER 159 | Top | 79-82 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
01-28-18 | Richmond v. Davidson UNDER 141 | Top | 66-63 | Win | 100 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
01-25-18 | Arkansas State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 148.5 | Top | 47-62 | Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
01-24-18 | DePaul v. Georgetown OVER 144.5 | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
01-24-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Drake UNDER 140 | 80-57 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
01-24-18 | Samford v. Chattanooga OVER 144.5 | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
01-20-18 | Missouri State v. Drake UNDER 138 | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
01-19-18 | Buffalo v. Western Michigan UNDER 153 | 84-74 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
01-18-18 | Mercer v. VMI UNDER 137.5 | 62-56 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
01-16-18 | Detroit v. IUPU-Indianapolis UNDER 156 | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
01-14-18 | Davidson v. Fordham UNDER 136 | Top | 75-45 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
01-09-18 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska UNDER 132 | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
01-09-18 | Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 140 | Top | 74-79 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
01-07-18 | William & Mary v. Drexel OVER 158 | Top | 85-63 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
01-06-18 | The Citadel v. Wofford OVER 166 | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
01-05-18 | Wisconsin v. Rutgers UNDER 125 | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
01-04-18 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Oral Roberts OVER 153 | 60-76 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
01-04-18 | The Citadel v. Furman UNDER 173 | 67-107 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
01-03-18 | Marquette v. Providence OVER 151 | 95-90 | Win | 100 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
12-12-17 | Mississippi State v. Cincinnati UNDER 138.5 | Top | 50-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
12-09-17 | Illinois v. UNLV OVER 157.5 | Top | 82-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
12-05-17 | Tennessee-Martin v. Arkansas State UNDER 144.5 | 92-78 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
11-28-17 | Tenn Chattanooga v. Akron UNDER 134.5 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
11-27-17 | Eastern Illinois v. Marquette OVER 149 | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
11-22-17 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Kentucky OVER 148 | 67-86 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
11-21-17 | Morehead State v. IUPU-Indianapolis OVER 146 | 61-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 155 | Top | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 138 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 42 m | Show |
03-25-17 | Oregon v. Kansas OVER 156.5 | 74-60 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 54 m | Show | |
03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga UNDER 145.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
03-24-17 | Wisconsin v. Florida UNDER 132 | Top | 83-84 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 59 m | Show |
03-24-17 | South Carolina v. Baylor UNDER 135 | Top | 70-50 | Win | 100 | 46 h 5 m | Show |
03-24-17 | Butler v. North Carolina UNDER 153 | Top | 80-92 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
03-23-17 | Xavier v. Arizona UNDER 145 | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
03-17-17 | Marquette v. South Carolina OVER 141 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
03-17-17 | Michigan State v. Miami (FL) OVER 125.5 | 78-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
03-17-17 | USC v. SMU OVER 139 | 66-65 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
03-17-17 | Iona v. Oregon OVER 152 | Top | 77-93 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
03-16-17 | South Dakota State v. Gonzaga OVER 156 | Top | 46-66 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
03-15-17 | South Dakota v. Iowa OVER 164 | 75-87 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
03-15-17 | Akron v. Houston UNDER 147.5 | 78-75 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
03-11-17 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee UNDER 159 | Top | 72-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
03-10-17 | Alabama v. South Carolina OVER 122.5 | Top | 64-53 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
03-10-17 | East Carolina v. SMU OVER 127 | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
03-09-17 | Virginia v. Notre Dame OVER 125 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
03-09-17 | Rutgers v. Northwestern OVER 122.5 | Top | 61-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
03-09-17 | Montana v. Idaho OVER 139 | Top | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
03-09-17 | Texas-San Antonio v. Middle Tennessee OVER 128.5 | Top | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
03-09-17 | Davidson v. La Salle UNDER 148.5 | 82-73 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
03-08-17 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia OVER 116 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
03-07-17 | Idaho State v. CS Sacramento OVER 139 | Top | 76-91 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
03-07-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Northern Kentucky OVER 133 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
03-06-17 | Central Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 166.5 | Top | 106-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
03-06-17 | East Tennessee State v. NC-Greensboro OVER 137 | Top | 79-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
03-06-17 | South Dakota State v. South Dakota OVER 152 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
03-05-17 | Denver v. South Dakota State OVER 150 | Top | 73-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
03-04-17 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. North Dakota State OVER 147.5 | Top | 76-57 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
03-03-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 170.5 | Top | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
03-02-17 | Rice v. Marshall UNDER 182 | 89-88 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
02-28-17 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois OVER 140 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
02-28-17 | Indiana v. Purdue UNDER 150.5 | 75-86 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
02-28-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Central Michigan UNDER 172 | Top | 109-81 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
02-27-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 164 | Top | 77-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
02-26-17 | Illinois v. Nebraska OVER 137.5 | Top | 73-57 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
02-25-17 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Western Illinois OVER 154.5 | Top | 96-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
02-25-17 | Marshall v. Charlotte UNDER 179.5 | 93-89 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
02-24-17 | Oakland v. Green Bay UNDER 163 | 85-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
02-24-17 | Central Michigan v. Toledo UNDER 176.5 | Top | 66-87 | Win | 100 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
02-23-17 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois OVER 146 | Top | 92-81 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
02-23-17 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas UNDER 147.5 | Top | 85-67 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
02-22-17 | Furman v. East Tennessee State OVER 141 | Top | 81-93 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
02-21-17 | Ohio v. Miami (OH) UNDER 149 | 79-62 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
02-21-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 152 | 72-79 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
02-21-17 | Purdue v. Penn State UNDER 146 | Top | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
02-08-17 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State UNDER 148.5 | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
02-01-17 | Villanova v. Providence OVER 136 | 66-57 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
01-31-17 | Wisconsin v. Illinois OVER 132.5 | Top | 57-43 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
01-26-17 | Indiana v. Michigan OVER 145 | Top | 60-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
01-23-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma State OVER 155.5 | Top | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
01-17-17 | Illinois v. Purdue OVER 144 | Top | 68-91 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |