Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-18-21 | Baylor v. Oregon UNDER 135.5 | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* 707/708 UNDER 135.5 Baylor at Oregon 10 PM ET - Baylor’s defense is stifling as they allow just 54.1PPG on the season and have held all of their opponents to less than 63 points and three of them to less than 50-points. The Bears have the 3rd best overall defensive efficiency rating allowing .861PPP. Another key factor here is pace and Baylor ranks 190th in adjusted tempo. The Bears defend the 3-point line as well as anyone allowing 27.9% on the season and 43.3% inside the arc. Oregon has gotten off to a disappointing start with a 6-5 record, but they’ve faced the 65th toughest schedule to date and still have the 104th best defensive efficiency rating. Oregon knows to have a shot at winning this game they must control the tempo and keep this a low scoring game. The Ducks ae 308th in adjusted tempo this season and on average take 17.6 seconds to get a shot up which ranks 215th. Oregon 5-1 to the Under their last six at home against a team with a winning road record, Bears 4-1 Under their last five versus a team with a winning home record. |
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12-18-21 | Providence v. Connecticut UNDER 135.5 | 57-53 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* #663/664 UNDER 135.5 Providence vs Connecticut, 5 PM ET - The defenses of these two teams are outstanding and we can’t see either of these two getting to 65 in this contest. Providence is 71st in defensive efficiency allowing just .952-points per possession and holds foes to an effective field goal percentage of 46.3% which ranks 67th. In their last three games the Friars have allowed 54PPG and they’ve only given more than 64 points just 3 times in their last ten games. As for the Huskies, their overall defensive numbers are outstanding. UConn is 27th in DEFF, have the 10th best EFG% defense at 42.6%, force 22.7 turnovers per game, rank 6th in block% and limit opponents to 40% shooting inside the arc. UConn is 179th in adjusted tempo while Providence is 206th. Finally the value in the number is what sealed the deal for us. Last year these two programs met twice and the numbers on those games were 130.5 and 133.5 with both ending with 134 and 129 total points being scored. The play here is UNDER. |
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12-13-21 | Rhode Island v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 131 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
#877/878 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 131 Points – Rhode Island vs UW Milwaukee, Monday at 8 PM ET - Two slow paced, solid defensive teams facing off in this game. URI ranks 314th in pace and their defense allows just 62 PPG on the season. They rank 72nd in defensive efficiency and 18th in eFG% defense. They have allowed only 1 team this season to reach 70 points and they are facing a UWM team that ranks 318th in scoring averaging 63 PPG. Milwaukee’s offensive struggles have come vs a weak defensive slate of opponents. 7 of Milwaukee’s 9 opponents currently rank outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. URI will be just the 3rd team they’ve faced this year that ranks inside the top 100 in defensive efficiency and the Panthers were able to score just 45 and 54 points in the other 2 games. UWM ranks 275th in pace and their defense is the strength of their team ranking 58th in eFG% allowed. They match up very well defensively vs Rhode Island as the Rams score the vast majority of their points inside the arc and at the FT line. Milwaukee’s D has defended inside the arc very well (26th nationally) and they foul very little. The Rams offense has topped 72 points just twice this season and those games were vs fast paced teams with very poor defenses (Georgia State & Bryant). The projected final here is right around 70-62 in favor of URI. Our projections have both teams coming up short of those projections. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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12-04-21 | Youngstown State v. Green Bay UNDER 133.5 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #685/686 UNDER 133.5 Youngstown State at UW Green Bay, 7 PM ET - This is a great matchup of coaches who come from strong defensive backgrounds. Youngstown State’s head coach Jerrod Calhoun is a former Bob Huggins’ disciple, and Will Ryan is the son of legendary Bo Ryan. Will Ryan has also adopted his dad’s philosophy on offense, which is slow, deliberate and painstakingly slow. The Phoenix are 341st in pace of play this season after ranking 313th a year ago. UWGB had some turnover on their roster this season and are struggling to score with the 311th worst EFG% shooting team in college basketball. The Phoenix make just 27% of their 3-point attempts which is 328th in the nation. Youngstown was 228th in EFG% shooting a year ago, 296th in 3-point shooting at 30.9%. The Penguins also prefer to play at a slower tempo ranking 202nd in pace after finishing last year 212th. Two slower paced teams that can’t shoot make this an inviting UNDER wager. |
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12-02-21 | Portland State v. Idaho State UNDER 130.5 | Top | 63-55 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
#767/768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131 Points – Portland State vs Idaho State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Two bad offenses facing off here makes for a low scoring game. Let’s start with Portland State. They had a few higher scoring games vs something called Evergreen State and George Fox which makes their overall season stats look much better than they are. Throw those 2 games out and they are averaging just 56 PPG vs Division 1 opponents. PSU ranks 356th in eFG%, 357th in 3 point making only 18% from beyond the arc, and they almost never get to the FT line (14% of their points on the season). There are 358 Division 1 teams which tells you how poor they’ve been offensively. Now we move to Idaho State. They are averaging 55 PPG vs their 5 Division 1 opponents they faced so far this season. The Bengals rank 297th in eFG% and 310th in 3 point %. And those numbers come vs a schedule in which 4 of the 5 teams they’ve faced rank below 200 in defensive efficiency. Portland State does like to play at a fast pace, however the host Idaho State is one of the slowest teams in the country ranking 333rd in tempo. It’s really tough to speed up a slow paced team and we expect Idaho State to get their preferred slow tempo here. The 2 Big Sky foes met twice last year and totaled 112 and 121 points. We like UNDER here. |
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12-01-21 | Louisville v. Michigan State UNDER 135.5 | Top | 64-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
#685/686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points – Louisville vs Michigan State, Wed at 7:15 PM ET - We have 2 of the best performing defenses in college basketball facing off in this game and we expect this one to stay under the total. MSU ranks 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and Louisville ranks 18th. Sparty has stayed under this number of 135 in 4 of their last 5 games. Their only game during that stretch that went over this number was vs Eastern Michigan who plays at a very fast pace and has a defense ranked 254th in efficiency. The only 2 teams this year to top 70 points vs MSU’s defense were Kansas & Baylor who rank 5th and 6th nationally in offensive efficiency. The offense they are facing tonight, Louisville, ranks 93rd in offensive efficiency. The Cards have allowed more than 67 points just once this season and in their 2 most recent games vs Maryland (60th in offensive efficiency) and Mississippi State (49th in offensive efficiency) this defense allowed just 55 and 58 points. Both teams struggle to shoot the 3 well both ranking below 210th and both defend the arc with neither allowing 30%. We don’t expect many points from deep tonight. Both are inside the top 23 in eFG% defense while each offense ranks outside the top 160 in that category. Each of these defenses makes it very tough to get shots allowing a shot attempt every 18+ seconds which ranks them both outside the top 300 in defensive pace. MSU & Louisville have combined to play 13 games this year with only 4 going over the total. Another lower scoring game here that we project to land in the high 120’s. |
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11-27-21 | BYU v. Utah UNDER 139 | Top | 75-64 | Push | 0 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
#669/670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 139 Points – BYU vs Utah, Saturday at 9:30 PM ET - Two rivals going at it tonight and we expect a lower scoring affair. Both defenses have been stellar this year with BYU ranking 8th in eFG% defense and Utah ranking 10th in the same category. Neither team ranks inside the top 130 in eFG% offense despite playing a fairly easy slate of defenses this season. Utah has played one of the weaker schedules in the country thus far and they have not faced a defense ranked in the top 100 in efficiency. Despite playing a weak slate of defenses, Utah games have averaged 134 total points this season. BYU has played 2 top 100 defenses this season (San Diego St & Oregon) and those games have totaled 126 & 130 points. If we throw out their game vs Central Methodist (non Division 1) the Cougar games are averaging 132 total points. Neither team shoot the 3 pointer very well and both defend the arc at a high level (BYU #1 nationally defending the 3 and Utah 30th) so we don’t expect many points from deep. Our power ratings have this game finishing in the mid 130’s so some value on the Under in this one. |
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11-24-21 | VCU v. Syracuse UNDER 130.5 | Top | 67-55 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
#747/748 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 130 Points – Syracuse vs VCU, Wednesday at 5 PM ET - Syracuse is coming off a high scoring game vs Colgate which pushed this total quite a bit higher than it should be by our projections. It has dropped a few points since but we still like the Under in this game. Colgate was a very good shooting team that likes to play at a high tempo. They made 18 three pointers in their big win over Syracuse. By comparison, VCU had made 15 three pointers the entire season in 4 games. The Rams are a poor shooting team (286th eFG%), that doesn’t make FT’s (61%) and plays slow. On the other end of the court VCU has been outstanding. They rank 4th nationally in eFG% defense and they’ve allowed their first 4 opponents an average of 51 PPG with none topping 58. Syracuse has solid offensive numbers but they’ve played 3 defenses that rank 192nd or lower in efficiency. 2 of the 3 teams they’ve faced also like to play up tempo and that won’t be the case in this one. To beat the Syracuse zone you need to make some 3’s and VCU just isn’t equipped to do that (313th in 3-point %). They love to play inside the paint. The Cuse is a solid 3-point shooting team thus far but they are now facing a VCU defense that allows just 21% from beyond the arc (6th nationally). It’s tough to get shots against both of these defenses which is why they ranked 350th and 355th in defensive pace. Our projections have this landing in the mid to upper 120’s so we’ll take the UNDER. |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 148.5 | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
#653/654 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 148.5 Points – Arkansas vs Baylor, Monday at 10 PM ET - Baylor’s defense was outstanding prior to their extended Covid interruption which lasted from February 2nd – February 23rd. Coming back from that, they didn’t play very well on the defensive end of the court. The Bears held only 2 of their next 7 opponents under 70 points. Prior to their Covid break they had held 14 of their 17 opponents to less than 70 points. Head coach Scott Drew mentioned that because they had to play so many games in a short period of time after coming back, they didn’t get to practice much which really affected their defensive efficiency. After the Big 12 tourney, the Bears had a full week to practice and their defense is back to elite form. They have allowed 55, 63, and 51 points in their 3 NCAA tourney games including games vs solid offensive teams Villanova & Wisconsin. None of those 3 opponents topped 0.98 points per possession and those 3 teams combined to shoot just 41%. Arkansas is known as a fast paced, high scoring team, however their defense is far superior to their offense. The Razors defense ranks 9th nationally in efficiency while their offense is 46th. They have allowed 66, 68, and 70 points in their 3 tournament games, all which went UNDER the total by a combined 30 points. Their most recent game vs a very fast paced and poor defensive team (Oral Roberts was the worst defensive team in the entire tourney) the final score was just 72-70. Both offenses have scored well under their season averages in the tourney with Arkansas putting up 75 PPG in 3 games (season average is 82 PPG) and Baylor scoring 72 PPG (season average is 83 PPG). Both offenses will be facing one of the better defenses they’ve seen this season and we expect this one to be played in the low 70’s at best. Take the UNDER. |
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03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 136.5 | Top | 84-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 136.5 LA Tech vs Mississippi State, 3 PM ET - This is an interesting situation as LA Tech played another SEC opponent in the opening round of this Tournament against Mississippi. We can make a great comparison from that game as Ole’Miss and Mississippi State have some very similar characteristics in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency along with pace of play. La Tech and Mississippi combined for 131 total points. The (MSU) Bulldogs are 301st in pace or tempo and want nothing to do with a faster paced game. Miss State is coming off a game against Richmond who is like LA Tech and those two combined for 135 total points. These two teams are both top 53 in terms of defensive efficiency ratings allowing less than .950-points per possession. Mississippi State has the 11th best EFG% defense in college basketball while Louisiana Tech ranks 43rd in that same category. It’s getting later in the tournament and pressure is starting to mount. We’ll bet UNDER here. |
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03-25-21 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky UNDER 136.5 | Top | 72-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 136.5 Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky, 10 PM ET - This will be the third meeting of the season for these two Conference USA rivals with the two teams splitting the regular season clashes. We are not concerned with who will win this showdown but will invest in how many points they score. In the first two games at Western Kentucky these two combined for 130 and 121 Total points. Now we get a game on a neutral floor where neither team has any shooting advantages. When it comes to tempo the Hilltoppers are 210th in the nation in pace of play while LA Tech ranks 129th. Both teams are OK when it comes to offensive efficiency but what both do well is play defense. LA Tech was 28th in the nation in defensive efficiency allowing just .922 points per possession while WKU was 89th at .973PPP. Tech had the best effective field goal percentage D in the conference, Western was 3rd. The entire conference was 25th nationally (out of 32) conferences in efficiency ratings and 14th in pace. If we eliminate one OT game in this rivalry, we see they’ve combined to score 137 or less points in 5 of the last six meetings. Bet UNDER! |
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03-24-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Pepperdine OVER 151.5 | Top | 61-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 151.5 Coastal Carolina vs Pepperdine, 8 PM ET - We feel Vegas had the right number when they opened this and will take the added value with the Over here. Consider this, Pepperdine and Bellarmine just played and combined for 153 total points and Bellarmine is the 315th slowest paced team in the nation. Coastal is coming off an OT game against Stetson who ‘average’ in pace of play at 194th and those two schools scored 149 total points. What we have tonight are two teams that want to play fast. Coastal is 49th in pace of play while Pepperdine is 46th. Pepperdine has scored 80+ points in 6 of their last eight games including both games on this tournament. Coastal just played Bryant two games ago and those two teams combined for 175 total points and Bryant was a faster paced team much like Pepperdine. With both teams playing their 3rd game in 3 days we don’t see much defense being played here. |
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03-20-21 | Maryland v. Connecticut UNDER 130 | Top | 63-54 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
#791/792 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 130 Points – Connecticut vs Maryland, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - For those of you that followed us closely this year, you’ll know we’ve been on a numbers of UNDERS with this Maryland team and done very well with those. The Terps are a slow paced, defensive minded team and there is no questioning that. Head coach Mark Turgeon has stressed to this team they will win with defense and they have responded. They rank 27th nationally in defensive efficiency and they are 317th in tempo. They have held 13 of their last 17 opponents below 70 points. Offensively the Terps only average 53 field goal attempts per game which is 329th in the country. UConn’s strength is also their defense. They rank 25th nationally in defensive efficiency and 28th in eFG% allowed. They held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 68 points or less. UConn is also a very slow paced team ranking 301st. The Huskies defense the 3-point line very well which should negate the strength of Maryland’s offense which is shooting from deep. On the other side, UConn shoots very few 3’s and gets most of their points from inside the arc but that is Maryland’s defensive strength allowing just 46% shooting from 2-point range. This game should be a low possession, defensive battle. We look for this game to be played in the high 50’s / low 60’s which equals an UNDER. |
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03-20-21 | Drake v. USC UNDER 135.5 | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
#771/772 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 135.5 Points – Drake vs USC, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - The Bulldogs struggled to put point on the board on Thursday beating Wichita State 53-52. The Shockers ranked 82 nationally in defensive efficiency and were one of the smaller teams in the tournament (243rd in effective height). Now they face a USC team that is HUGE and plays great defense ranking 20th nationally in defensive efficiency and 11th in eFG% defense. The only defense Drake saw this season that was on par with this USC defense was Loyola Chicago who is very good on that end of the court. In their 3 games vs the Ramblers, the Bulldogs scored 45 (in regulation), 54, and 65 points. They don’t take many 3 pointers and most of their scoring comes from inside the arc (59% of their points). The problem is the Trojans are fantastic and defending the 2-point shot (2nd nationally) and because of their massive height (7’0, 6’10, an 6’8 along the front line) they block a lot of shots and are tough to score over inside. Drake will struggle offensively again on Saturday. USC, same as Drake, doesn’t attempt many 3-point shots. On top of that, the Bulldogs defend the 3 well so we won’t see much scoring from behind the arc in this game. Both teams are slow paced so a limited number of possessions are expected. USC is a bad FT shooting team (64%) and Drake is just OK at 70%. Neither team fouls very often so most of the scoring should be done inside the arc which limits points in a low possession game. The Bulldogs when at full strength vs mainly average defenses in the MVC were solid offensively. However since the loss of Hemphill & Penn, two of their main offensive threats, they’ve averaged just 66 PPG over their last 10. Hemphill was back last night but is on a limited minute role (10 minutes vs Wichita) and Penn is still out. This one is an UNDER play for us. |
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03-19-21 | Oral Roberts v. Ohio State OVER 156 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
#739/740 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 156 Points – Oral Roberts vs Ohio State, Friday at 3 PM ET - This one should definitely be a high scoring game. Oral Roberts ranks 13th nationally in scoring averaging 82 PPG on the season. They love to play fast ranking 47th nationally in tempo. The Golden Eagles are a great 3-point shooting team (11th nationally) hitting almost 40% and the are the best FT shooting team in the country at 83%. Ohio State ranks 4th nationally in offensive efficiency and will be by far the best offense ORU has seen this season. There are some very solid offensive teams in the Summit League, but none ranked inside the top 40 in the country. Even with that, the Eagles allowed 75 PPG in conference play. The 3 top offensive teams in the Summit are South Dakota State, South Dakota, and this ORU team. In their 4 games vs SDSU & South Dakota the totaled 189, 178, 175, and 170 points. ORU’s defense ranks 285th nationally in defensive efficiency and the Buckeyes have not seen a defense this leaky in a LONG time. For comparison’s sake, the worst defensive teams in the Big 10 this season were the Buckeyes (79th nationally), followed by Minnesota (51st), Iowa (50th), and Penn State (49th). OSU averaged 77 PPG in their games vs those 3 opponents and they are all FAR superior defensively to this Oral Roberts team. The Eagles played 5 games this season vs tournament teams (Missouri, Oklahoma St, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Wichita St) and allowed an average of 85 PPG in those games and all 5 opponents were ranked outside the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency (OSU is 4th as we mentioned above). The Buckeyes weakness is definitely their defense which was last in the conference this year in efficiency. They also are not great at defending the arc (191st nationally) which will be a problem here vs a great 3 point shooting team. OSU’s tempo numbers aren’t overly fast, however, they have no problem playing fast and did so when facing the up tempo teams in the Big 10. Versus the 4 Big 10 teams ranked inside the top 100 in tempo, OSU averaged 152 PPG in those contests and remember all of those teams have much better defenses than Oral Roberts. OSU get’s to at LEAST the mid 80’s here and we have no doubt Oral Roberts will top 70. Take the OVER. |
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03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State UNDER 135 | Top | 86-80 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
#717/718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135 Points – UCLA vs Michigan State, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The Bruins step into this game as one of the slowest teams in the country ranking 332nd in tempo. MSU was one of the slower paced teams in the Big 10 (9th) and they sit in the middle of the pack nationally. However, they have no problem playing a slow down game and that’s what we expect tonight as UCLA gets the tempo they prefer. Neither team takes or makes many 3-pointers with both ranking outside the top 250 in percentage of points from beyond the arc. That’s always something we look at when taking an UNDER. Limit points from beyond the arc = lower scoring game. MSU is not a good shooting team period. They ranked 13th in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency, 3-point percentage, and eFG percentage. Down the stretch Sparty was held under 60 points in 3 of their final 5 games and only reached 1.00 points per possession once in their final 5. They averaged just 64 PPG in Big 10 play and only topped 70 points 6 times in 21 conference games including the tournament. The Bruins had better offensive numbers averaging 71 PPG in Pac 12 play but keep in mind that conference has nowhere near the defensive prowess the Big 10 has. In fact, MSU ranked 8th overall in Big 10 defensive efficiency (all games) but 32nd nationally. The Spartans defensive numbers were good enough to rank 3rd in the Pac 12 right on par with Colorado (29th nationally) and USC (19th nationally), the top 2 defensive teams in that league. In UCLA’s 4 games vs those 2 opponents, the combined scores were 114, 127, 127, and 131 points. This one will be played in the 60’s and we like the UNDER. |
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03-17-21 | Western Kentucky v. St. Mary's UNDER 125 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 37 m | Show |
#707/708 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 125 Points – St Marys vs Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET - NOTE – All NIT games are being played in Frisco, TX so no home court advantage. The strength of both of these teams are their defenses. St Marys ranks 9th nationally in defensive efficiency and WKU ranks 81st. Both offenses rank outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency with Ste Marys sitting down near 200th in that category. Neither team likes to play at a fast pace, especially the Gaels who rank 347th in tempo. If you take out their 3 games vs Gonzaga (#1 in the country in offensive efficiency) the St Marys defense allowed just 59 PPG in conference play. Offensively they only averaged 59 PPG in WCC play shooting just 39% from the field and 25% from beyond the arc. They rank 328th nationally in 3-point shooting at under 30% for the season. Needless to say this offense isn’t any where close to the sharp shooting teams St Marys has had in the past. The only 2 defenses in the WCC that rank in the top 100 are BYU & Gonzaga. In those games St Marys averaged just 56 PPG in their 5 meetings with those 2 teams. The Hilltopper defense also ranks in the top 100 and was outstanding all year allowing 70 points or more just 4 times in 17 Conference USA games. St Marys offense efficiency (198th) would rank 10th in CUSA this season so we don’t look for much from them on offense. CUSA doesn’t have a single defense ranked in the top 30 in efficiency so this will be a better defense by a wide margin than anyone WKY has faced in conference play (St Marys is 9th nationally as mentioned above). Neither team relies heavily on shooting 3’s (both accumulate less than 29% of their points from beyond the arc) and neither team fouls very often. So it looks like the majority of points will be scored from inside the arc which favors the Under. This sets up to be a low possession game with defenses running the show. We think there is a very solid chance that neither team reaches 60 points here so while it’s set very low at 125, there is a reason for that and we like the UNDER. |
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03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 150.5 | Top | 88-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
#657/658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 151.5 Points – Ohio State vs Illinois, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET - This total is set too high for a Big Ten Championship game. We expect both defenses to be on top of their game with a title on the line. Illinois ranks 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. In Big 10 play they allowed just 68 PPG on 41% shooting. OSU’s overall defensive numbers on the season are not as strong, however after losing 4 in a row to end the regular season, head coach Holtmann went back to the basics and focused on defense. It worked as they have been lights out on that end of the court in the Big 10 tourney allowing their 3 opponents to shoot just 38% combined. On Saturday they held a very potent Michigan offense (5th nationally in offensive efficiency) to just 67 points. The Wolverines held OSU to just 68 points and the Illini defense is definitely on par with Michigan’s (1st and 2nd in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency). On offense, Illinois takes fewer 3 pointers than any team in the league (25% of their points from deep) and OSU is in the middle of the pack (33% of points from 3). So we don’t expect a barrage of threes going up in this game an when they do, remember this is OSU’s 4th game in 4 days and Illinois 3rd game in 3 days so legs will be a factor when launching from deep. This is the Buckeyes THIRD highest total of the entire season and the other 2 were vs Iowa who is fast paced, the #1 offensive efficiency team in the Big 10 and not great defensively. The Illini had 6 totals this season set at 150 or higher and 5 of those games went UNDER the total. We expect the Big 10 Championship game to be a lower scoring game as it always has been. Teams know each other very well and are closing out a long, physically and emotionally draining weekend. Since the Big 10 tourney began in 1998 the average total combined points per game has been just 126.5. NOT ONE of those 22 games has topped 151 points and today’s total is 151.5. UNDER for us on this one. |
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03-12-21 | Ohio State v. Purdue UNDER 143 | Top | 87-78 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
#813/814 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 143 Points – Ohio State vs Purdue, Friday at 2 PM ET - OSU played Minnesota yesterday in what appeared to be a high scoring game with the Buckeyes winning 79-75. It went over the total of 145. However, a closer look reveals that if not for a flurry of points late, this would have been a lower scoring affair. With just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game, the 2 teams had 135 total points which means they scored 19 points in the final minute. The 2 teams had just 66 points at half. The Buckeyes, minus the last few minutes of the game, played outstanding defense. That had been their Achilles heal during their 4 game losing streak to end the season but remember 3 of those 4 teams they faced (Michigan, Illinois, & Iowa) all rank in the top 8 nationally in offensive efficiency. Head coach Chris Holtmann really stressed defensive intensity to his team entering the Big 10 tourney and they responded. The Gophs shot just 36% and had only 58 points with under 2:00 minutes remaining. The Buckeyes offense played very well but they were facing a Minnesota defense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency. It should be much different on Friday with the Buckeyes facing a Purdue defense that ranks 3rd in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Boilers also prefer a much slower pace (273rd nationally) compared to Minnesota so there will be fewer possessions in this game. The 2 met twice this season with Purdue winning both 67-60 and 67-65. Defense ruled the day in those 2 meetings with the teams combining to shoot 43% in each game. These 2 rivals know each other very well and when they get together it’s usually a low scoring, grinder type game. In fact, over the last 12 meetings, these 2 have topped 140 total points only twice. This one goes UNDER the total. |
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03-11-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas OVER 134.5 | Top | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
#715/716 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134.5 Points – Texas vs Texas Tech, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - These 2 played less than 2 weeks ago and the total for that game was set at 134.5. The final score was Tech 68 / Texas 59 for a total of 127 points. Despite that game going under, this total is set higher than the first meeting and we agree. If you take a close look at that game, the teams combined to shoot only 39% from the field and made only 11 of their 37 three point attempts for just 29%. Even with those poor shooting numbers, these teams nearly got to 130 which is only a few possessions short of tonight’s total. Both of these offenses are solid ranking 3rd and 4th in Big 12 offensive efficiency and for the season Texas averages 75 PPG & Tech puts up 73 PPG. They are also both very good three point shooting teams ranking 3rd and 4th in the league in that area as well. As you can see these offenses are much better than their showing a few weeks ago and we expect the numbers to be much better in this game. The one thing they did do in that game which helps a potential OVER is they got to the FT line with 38 made freebies in 53 attempts. Both teams foul often and their opponents put up over 21% of their points from the FT line which ranks each in the top 50 in highest percentage of points allowed from the stripe. So we look for a bunch of FT attempts again on Thursday evening and it they can improve their field goal shooting, which we expect they will, this one should get into the 140’s. Take the OVER here. |
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03-05-21 | Evansville v. Indiana State UNDER 135 | Top | 43-53 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
#869/870 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135 Points – Evansville vs Indiana State, Friday at 3 PM ET - We love the value here on the UNDER. These 2 met twice in mid February and the totals set on those 2 games was 123.5 and 127. Both went OVER the total so now we are getting Friday’s opener at 135 which is a full 11.5 points higher than their first meeting. Were the oddsmakers that far off with their initial totals for those meetings? No. The teams went crazy offensively in those games which pushed both over the total. The first meeting ended with ISU winning 76-70. The 2 teams combined to take only 93 shots in that game but made 53 of those shots which was 57%. They also combined to make 41% of their 3-pointers. In the rematch the 2 teams attempted 104 total shots and made 60 of those for 58%. The also made 44% of their 3-pointers in that game. For comparison’s sake, for the season these teams make 43.7% and 44.3% of their shots (38% and 33% from beyond the arc) so both hit WAY above their averages in those 2 games. They were both very slow paced games as we can see by the total shots and that’s not surprising as Evansville ranks 355th (out of 357 teams) in tempo while Indiana State ranks 219th. The Sycamores are very solid defensively ranking in the top 100 in defensive efficiency (4th in the MVC) and while Evansville is not a great defensive team, ISU still performed well above their offensive expectations (based on facing Evansville’s defense) in the first meetings. 135 may not seem like a high total, but keep in mind ISU has had 9 of their last 10 totals set at 137.5 or less and Evansville has had only one total ALL SEASON set higher than 135. Now we are at a neutral site in St Louis and it’s tourney time. One and done. We expect both defenses to perform much better this time around and another very slow paced game with limited shot attempts is on tap. Unless they both go off the charts again offensively, this one should stay UNDER the total. |
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03-03-21 | St. Joe's v. La Salle OVER 151 | Top | 72-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
#701/702 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 151 Points – LaSalle vs St Josephs, Wednesday at 11 AM ET - We expect this one to be a shootout. These 2 A10 foes faced each other on February 20th and the final score was St Joes 91 – LaSalle 82 in OT. At the end of the regulation the score was 77-77 so they totaled 154 prior to OT. Neither team was all that efficient in that game with St Joes averaging 1.01 PPP and LaSalle putting up 0.97 PPP, both below their season averages. These are the 2 fastest paced teams in the conference so as expected, we had a LOT of shot attempts in that first meeting. St Joes made 33 of their 68 shot attempts and LaSalle hit 31 of their 79 shot attempts. As you can see they only made 43% of their shots and combined to make just 24% of their 3’s yet these 2 still hit 154 in regulation. On top of that, they only hit 63% of their FT’s in the game. These are the 2 worst defensive efficiency teams in the conference and it shows on the court. The Explorers have allowed at least 73 points in 14 of their 16 conference games this season. The Hawks have allowed at least 80 points in 9 of their 12 A10 games. These 2 defenses rank 260th and 342nd in points allowed nationally this season. St Joes offense has really stepped it up over the last 3 games after getting star G Daly back in the line up after he missed 10 straight games. They have scored 97, 91, and 76 points in their 3 games since he came back and he is averaging 25 PPG in those 3. LaSalle was missing G Sanders, on of their top 3-point shooters, in their first meeting vs St Joes and he is now back and healthy. Both of these teams have the offense to get into the 80’s and higher and in a fast paced game with no defense, we like the OVER. |
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02-25-21 | Ohio State v. Michigan State OVER 145 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
#765/766 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 145 Points – Ohio State @ Michigan State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These two met a few weeks ago and they combined to score 141 points with OSU winning 79-62. The 2 teams combined to shoot only 38% in that game including just 26% from beyond the arc and they still topped 140. We look for a much better offensive performance from both teams on Thursday. The Spartans season only offensive efficiency numbers are not overly impressive but over the last few games this teams seems to be coming together on that end of the court. They combined to shoot 51% while scoring 78 and 81 points in their last 2 games vs Indiana (37th nationally in defensive efficiency) and Illinois (15th nationally in defensive efficiency). In their first game vs OSU the Spartans were just coming back from a long Covid break and struggled scoring just 0.89 PPP which was well below their season average of 1.08 PPP. If the Buckeyes have a weakness, it’s on defense where they rank 7th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and 9th in eFG% defense. We think MSU continues to play well on offense in this game. OSU’s offense has been fantastic all season. They rank 3rd nationally in offensive efficiency and in the top 60 in eFG%, 3-point FG%, 2-point FG%, and FT%. They just put up 87 points over the weekend on Michigan who is the #1 defense in the Big Ten (MSU ranks 8th in that category). They have scored at least 73 points in 8 straight games and they have topped 80 in half of those games (4). Both teams get to the FT line a lot (3rd and 4th in Big Ten in % of points from the line) and in the first meeting they combined to attempt 60 freebies. If they simply shoot better from the field in this one, this easily gets into the 150’s. Ohio state has gone OVER the total in 6 of their last 7 games (one push during that stretch) while MSU, with their offense now coming together, has gone OVER 3 straight games. With the spread at OSU -4, the projected scored is 76-72. We like both teams to top their projected numbers and this one goes OVER the total. |
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02-20-21 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 127.5 | 66-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
#723/724 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 127.5 Points – Mississippi State @ Mississippi, Saturday at 6 PM ET - These are two very good defenses and not so much on offense. They are also very slow paced teams which will lead to very few possessions in this game. They met earlier this year and the final score was 64-46 in favor of Ole Miss so just 110 total points. This one sets up for a similar type final score as far as total points go. These 2 rivals both rank in the top 5 in the SEC in defensive efficiency. On the other end of the court, they rank 13th and 11th (out of 14 SEC teams) in conference offensive efficiency. They also rank 12th and 13th in pace of play in SEC games. There won’t be many shots in this game and unless they shoot very well, this one doesn’t get into the 130’s. Neither team shoots many 3-pointers as they rank 13th & 14th in the SEC in percentage of points coming from deep. On top of that both teams are better at defending inside the arc which matched up perfectly with each offense. Versus the slower paced teams in the league, these two teams have been involved in grinder for the most part. Against the 3 other slower paced teams (Miss St, Tenn, and Texas A&M) the Rebels have averaged just 107 total PPG. For Mississippi State vs those teams they have averaged just 109.5 PPG. Defenses dominate here and this goes UNDER the number. |
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02-20-21 | Seton Hall v. Georgetown OVER 141 | Top | 75-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
#709/710 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 141 Points – Seton Hall @ Georgetown, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET - We expect BOTH of these teams to get into the 70’s so it’s OVER the total for us. When these 2 met earlier this year they total 145 points with the Hall winning 78-67. They got to the mid 140’s yet neither team shot all that great as they combined to make just 39% of their shots. They both fell well below their points per possession numbers on the year with Seton Hall averaging 1.05 PPP in the first meeting (they average 1.14 on the season) and G’Town averaging just 0.91 PPP in that meeting (averaging 1.06 PPP on the season). The pace was quick in the first meeting as they combined to attempt 132 total shots (70 for the Hall & 62 for the Hoyas). Both teams are excellent FT shooting teams (75%) and they made 26 of their 31 FT’s in the first meeting. Historically these 2 Big East rivals have gotten to at least 140 in 6 of their last 7 meetings. The Hoyas have allowed 8 of their 11 Big East opponents to get to at least 70 points. In their most recent game vs Butler, who is the slowest team in the conference and 10th in offensive efficiency, the combined for 141 points. Seton Hall has had some low scoring games in Big East play but when they’ve faced one of the top 4 highest tempo teams in the league (G’Town in 3rd) the Pirates have totaled 145, 145, 141, 153, and 166 total points. We like OVER in this one. |
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02-18-21 | Rutgers v. Michigan UNDER 136.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
#763/764 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 136.5 Points – Rutgers @ Michigan, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Michigan just came back from a 3 week Covid stoppage and looked a bit rusty on offense. They shot just 41% in a 67-59 win @ Wisconsin over the weekend. The offense may take awhile to come around after the long break but we know the constant here will be their defense. They rank #1 in defensive efficiency in the Big 10 and #8 nationally. After holding the Badgers to 59 points on Saturday, they have now held half of their Big 10 opponents (5) to less than 60 points. That’s not great news for a Rutgers offense that is middle of the pack in offensive efficiency (7th in the Big 10) and averages only 65 PPG on the road this season. Rutgers defense is much better than their offense. They rank 12th nationally in defensive efficiency so we have 2 top 12 defenses in this game. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in tempo so we don’t expect an up and down game here. Neither team relies heavily on the 3-point shot with both ranking outside the top 200 with 29% (Michigan) and 26% (Rutgers) of their points coming from deep. That tells us the 3-point attempts will be limited here which favors the UNDER. On top of that, neither team gets to the FT line very often as they rank 13th & 12th in the conference in percentage of points coming from the stripe. So it looks like a lot of 2-point attempts in this game. Rutgers has gone UNDER the total in 4 of their last 5 games and Michigan has stayed below the total in 5 of their last 6. These 2 teams have met 8 times since Rutgers joined the Big 10 and only 2 of those games have topped 132 points. We like the UNDER here. |
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02-18-21 | Jacksonville State v. Belmont OVER 147.5 | 59-63 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
#751/752 ASA play on 8* Over 147.5 Jacksonville State @ Belmont, 8 PM ET - These two teams have favored playing Over this season with a combined 23-17-1 Over record on the season. When these two teams last met back in January, they left their defenses in the locker rooms and proceeded to score 189 total points. That seems to be a recurring trend when these two teams meet as they scored 185 total points last February and have totaled more points than this total in 4 of the last five meetings. Belmont is the 9th highest scoring team in college basketball at 83.3PPG and have the 5th best shooting offense in the nation at 51.3%. The Bruins also have a top 60 3-point percentage in the country. Jacksonville doesn’t have those offensive numbers, but they do have some very good statistics as they average 75PPG and shoot 45.8% from the field which both rank top 102 in college hoops. The Gamecocks played Murray State earlier this year and the Racers have similar offensive/defensive efficiency stats as Belmont, but they are the slowest paced team in the conference and Belmont is the fastest. In Jacksonville State’s game against a slow Murray State they combined for 167 total points. Belmont faced an Austin Peay team a few weeks back who has similar numbers to Jacksonville State in terms of pace, OEFF and DEFF and that game finished with 157 total points. This game has all the makings of a shootout with 158+ points. |
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02-16-21 | Xavier v. St. John's OVER 155 | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
#633/634 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 155 Points – Xavier @ St Johns, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - These two met earlier this year and with the total set at 155 the two combined for only 129 points. However, taking a look at how that game played out we see that the two offenses performed way below their averages. They combined to take 131 shots (which is a LOT of shot attempts) and they made just 48 for a shooting percentage of 36%. Even worse, they attempted 30 three pointers and made 5 which is just 16%. On top of that the two combined to make only 29 of their 49 FT attempts (59%). It was just a terrible outing from both offenses and they STIILL got to 129 points. We expect a high number of shot attempts from each team again as these are the 2 fastest paced teams in the Big East. The Johnnies average 65 shot attempts per game (6th nationally) and Xavier puts up 61 attempts per game (57th nationally). In their last 3 games Xavier faced UConn, Butler, and Providence (3 of the 4 slowest paced teams in the Big East) and in 2 of those games they combined to scored 149 & 152 points. Last weekend’s game was very telling when they faced UConn who is the slowest paced team in the league and the #1 defense team in the Big East and the final was 80-72 in favor of the Huskies. St Johns has had a number of high scoring games vs faster paced teams. If we throw out their first meeting with Xavier which we discussed above, the Johnnies games vs the other top 3 fastest paced team in the conference (DePaul, Georgetown, and Creighton) have resulted in combined totals of 149, 176, 170, 177, and 191. These two teams have combined to play 35 games this season and 23 of them have gone OVER the total. We’ll call for another OVER on Tuesday. |
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02-16-21 | Nebraska v. Maryland UNDER 135.5 | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
#631/632 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 135.5 Points – Nebraska @ Maryland, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Terps continue to be a big time UNDER team. They have slowed their games down to a snails pace (13th in the Big 10 in tempo) limiting possessions and now going UNDER the total in 5 of their last 6 games. Their only OVER during that stretch was vs Ohio State a game that was on pace to stay UNDER the entire game and eclipsed the total by just 1 point when the 2 teams combined to score 15 points in the final 2:00 minutes of the game. Their 5 other games during that 6 game stretch have stayed UNDER by a combined 94 points or 19 points per game! Nebraska has won only 1 game in the Big 10 this year which was a 62-61 win @ Penn State on Saturday. While their offense ranks dead last in the conference in efficiency, their defense has been fairly solid ranking 7th. Since coming back from nearly a month long covid break, the Husker defense has allowed only 1 team to top 66 points in their last 5 games. They held a potent Illinois attack to just 66 (in regulation), allowed just 61 vs Wisconsin and 61 vs Penn State. The problem has been the offense averaging only 58 PPG over their last 5 games. Maryland’s offense ranks 12th in efficiency so in this game we have 2 of the 3 worst offenses in the Big 10. On top of that, neither of these teams get to the FT line very often and when they do Nebraska hits 60% in conference play while Maryland makes 68%. The Terps have gotten to 70 points just once in their last 7 games and Nebraska hasn’t topped 66 in their last 5. This one stays UNDER this posted total. |
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02-15-21 | East Tennessee State v. Chattanooga UNDER 134 | Top | 51-53 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
#845/846 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 134 Points – East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga, Monday at 7 PM ET - These two met on February 6th and Chattanooga pulled the upset 67-65 putting up 132 total points. It was on pace for just 120 at halftime and with 10 minutes remaining in the game these two had put up just 82 total points. They put up a whopping 50 points in the final 10 minutes of the game, including 18 points in the last 2:30 of the game. They both eclipsed their season averages in offensive PPP and even after all of that it still went UNDER the total. These are 2 slow paced teams ranking 10th (ETSU) and 8th (Chattanooga) in tempo in Southern Conference play (10 team league). ETSU has gone UNDER the total in 6 of their last 7 games and if we throw out their games vs Citadel, Samford, and VMI (3 fastest paced teams in the league) they are averaging 131 total points and they’ve topped 134 points (tonight’s total) only twice in those 9 remaining games. Chattanooga has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 games and they just put up 136 total points over the weekend vs the Citadel who is the fastest paced team in the league AND the worst defensive team in the conference. Now they have a rematch vs an ETSU defense that ranks 3rd in the league and just allowed 49 points to Wofford, one of the better offensive teams in the SOCON. We think this one will be a grinder with neither getting to 70 points. We like the UNDER |
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02-14-21 | Minnesota v. Maryland UNDER 138 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
#825/826 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 138 Points – Minnesota @ Maryland, Sunday at 7 PM ET - These two met on January 23rd in Minneapolis and Maryland came away with a 63-49 win (112 total points). The Terps, the 2nd slowest tempo team in the Big 10, slowed the game down as they have done for much of the season. The two teams combined to take only 91 shots and made only 13 combined 3-pointers. We see a similar situation here with a low possession game. Neither team is great offensively as they rank 8th and 12th in the league in both offensive efficiency and eFG%. The Gophers are the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big 10 and Maryland ranks 7th in that category. The Terps offense has averaged only 61 PPG over their last 9 conference games and Minnesota on the road has put up just 64 PPG this season. Maryland’s offense has not topped 1.00 PPP in 6 consecutive games. Defensively they have held their last 9 Big 10 opponents to under their offensive PPP average. The Gophers have gone UNDER the total in 8 of their last 10 games and Maryland has stayed UNDER in 4 of their last 5. We don’t see either team getting to 70 in this game and we’ll grab the UNDER. |
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02-03-21 | Kentucky v. Missouri UNDER 137 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
#715/716 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 137 Points – Kentucky @ Missouri, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - While Kentucky is struggling with just a 5-10 overall record, their defense has been very solid all year. They are ranked 14th nationally in defensive efficiency and they have allowed less than 1.00 PPP in 5 of their last 6 games. In SEC play the Cats are giving up only 0.99 PPP. Offensively they’ve really had problems. They rank 11th in offensive efficiency, 12th in eFG%, and 14th (last) in 2-point FG% (in conference play). They have been held to 65 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. On the season UK is making only 41% of their shots and just 29% from 3. Mizzou is off back to back high scoring games vs TCU and Auburn but we think that changes here. In their most recent game over the weekend, they beat TCU 102-98 in OT where both teams went off hitting 56% of their shots overall, 46% of their 3-point shots, and they combined to make 34 FT’s. It was a fast paced game that was on pace and the 2 teams combined to score a ridiculous 60 points in the final 10 minutes of regulation. This one won’t be fast paced as UK is one of the slowest teams in the SEC and Mizzou is in the bottom half of tempo stats in league play. Both defenses rank ahead of the offenses in this one with Kentucky ranking 2nd in eFG% defense in SEC play and Missouri ranking 3rd. The offense rank 12th and 8th respectively in that category. Neither teams shoot many 3 pointers with both ranking 300th or lower nationally in percentage of points from beyond the arc. When they do shoot 3’s, they aren’t very good with the Cats hitting 29% of their shots from deep and Mizzou hits just 30%. This has been a low scoring series with 4 of the last 5 meetings landing on 134 or lower. UNDER is the play. |
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02-01-21 | Murray State v. SE Missouri State UNDER 132.5 | Top | 77-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
#865/866 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 132.5 points – Murray State @ SE Missouri State, Monday at 7 PM ET - SE Missouri State has struggled offensively as much as any team in the OVC. They reached 70 points in regulation just 1 time in the last 13 games. They are a slow paced team that doesn’t get many shot attempts as they have averaged just 52 shots per game over their last 10. Not only do they have limited shot attempts each game, they are very inefficient on offense on top of that. They rank 305th nationally in offensive efficiency. The Redhawks are also one of the worst FT shooting teams in the nation hitting only 64%. They’ll be facing a Murray State team that rates as the slowest tempo team in the OVC in conference play. The Murray defense has allowed an average of just 66 PPG on OVC play including holding Belmont, the #1 offensive efficiency team in the conference, to 72 & 68 points in their 2 meetings. When facing offenses ranked in the lower half of the OVC in efficiency Murray State allows just 61 PPG. SE Mizzou State ranks 9th in the league in offensive efficiency. The Racers are averaging 71 PPG in OVC play but against the top 3 ranked defensive efficiency teams at they have averaged only 60 PPG. SE Missouri State ranks 4th in the conference in defensive efficiency so we expect Murray State to struggle here. Like SEMO the Racers are also a poor FT shooting team hitting only 68% as a team. This will be a game with limited possessions and we look for both defenses to have the advantage here. SEMO has gone under the total in 6 of their last 7 and Murray State has stayed under in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER. |
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01-31-21 | Northern Iowa v. Southern Illinois OVER 138.5 | Top | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
#829/830 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 138.5 Points – Northern Iowa @ Southern Illinois, Sunday at 6 PM ET - These two played on Saturday and tallied 136 points with UNI winning 74-62. The game stayed under by a couple of points as the closing total was 138 at most spots. The two teams combined to make 50 of their 108 shots which isn’t bad at 46%. However, digging deeper we can see a lot of points were left off the board in this game. While they shot OK overall, their 3-point shooting numbers and FT numbers were horrible. The 2 teams combined to make only 11 of their 40 three point attempts (barely 25%) and from the charity stripe they combined to make 25 FT’s on 47 attempts (53%). Both teams drastically underperformed their season averages in those 2 categories as UNI hits 34% of their 3’s on the year and SIU hits 37% (49th nationally). From the stripe they hit 68% and 70% respectively. It’s not as if these teams are lock down defensively from the arc either as NIU ranks 312th nationally defending the 3 and SIU ranks 299th. It was simply an off shooting performance. Expect a much better offensive performance from these teams on Sunday as both defense rank at the very bottom of the Missouri Valley in most key categories. They are 9th & 10th in defensive efficiency (10 team league) and neither of the two rank above 8th in eFG% defense, 2-point % defense, or 3-point % defense. We look for this one to get into the mid 140’s on Sunday so take the OVER. |
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01-30-21 | Minnesota v. Purdue UNDER 141 | Top | 62-81 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
#741/742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 141 Points – Minnesota @ Purdue, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We have 2 offenses in this game that have struggled in conference play. Purdue ranks 11th in the offensive efficiency with Minnesota ranking 10th in that category. These teams also rank 14th (last) and 11th in eFG% and 14th and 13th in 3 point percentage. The Gophers average 70 PPG in league play (7th) while Purdue averages 66 (11th). The Boilers are missing one of their top offensive performers as Sasha Stefanovic, who leads the Big 10 in 3 point shooting percentage, is out due to covid protocols. In their only game with out Stefanovic, Purdue scored 53 points at home vs Michigan last Friday. He’s a huge part of their offense and will be missed on Saturday. Minnesota has one of the largest home/road dichotomies on the nation. The Gophers average just 63 PPG on the road in Big 10 play and they’ve topped 65 points just once and that was @ Iowa who ranks 9th in the league in defensive efficiency and ranks 68th nationally in tempo. When Minnesota played @ Wisconsin and @ Michigan, 2 of the slower paced teams in the conference similar to Purdue, the Gophs scored 59 and 57 points. On top of that, Minnesota is shooting just 31% on the road (25% from 3) and Purdue has allowed an average of just 64 PPG in their 7 homes games this year. The Boilers will make this a slow paced game and we don’t see either team getting into the 70’s. Take the UNDER. |
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01-30-21 | Ole Miss v. Georgia UNDER 142 | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
#721/722 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 142 Points – Ole Miss @ Georgia, Saturday at 6 PM ET - These two met a few weeks ago and the total was set at 147. They combined to scored 152 points yet this number is set lower at 142.5. Hmm… In the first meeting these two team shot lights out combining to make 58 of their 107 shots (54.2%) and they made over 43% of their 3 points attempts. Even with that, the game was sitting at 132 total points with 3:30 remaining and they scored a ridiculous 20 points to close it out. At half the game was 29-28 and they went crazy scoring 95 points in the 2nd half. The hot shooting was definitely out of character for these two teams as they rank 12th and 13th in SEC play in offensive efficiency. They are also both poor 3-point shooting teams ranking 281st and 322nd nationally in that category. Neither team gets to the line very often but if they do they shoot 67% and 66% from the stripe. UGA want to play fast but Ole Miss plays very slow and we expect them to control the tempo here as they did in the first game which was slow paced as they combined for just 107 shots as we mentioned above. We just don’t see any way these two teams shoot as well as they did in the first meeting. Because Ole Miss often controls the tempo and limits possessions, their games are mainly low scoring. Their games this season average 131 total points and they have gone UNDER the total in 13 of their 15 games this season. The Rebels are also 21-5 to the UNDER their last 26 road games dating back to last season. Neither team reaches the 70’s here and we grab the UNDER. |
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01-26-21 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee UNDER 131 | Top | 53-56 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
#611/612 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131 Points – Mississippi State @ Tennessee, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Two of the slowest paced teams who are both struggling on offense calls for the UNDER here. Mississippi State ranks 312th in pace of play and the Volunteers come in at 306th in that category (out of 357 teams). Tennessee has been missing key offensive player (Springer) the last 2 games and they’ve scored 68 or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Starting PG Vescovi is also banged up with a bad hip but he’s been playing and scored just 10 total points the last 2 games (was averaging 10 PPG prior to last 2 games). The Vols now rank 10th in the SEC (conference play) in both offensive efficiency and eFG%. The Mississippi State offense has average 1.00 PPP or less in 5 of their last 7 games and now they face a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency allowing just 0.88 PPP. We expect both Tennessee & MSU to be held under 1.00 PPP which will make it very tough at a slow pace to reach this total. Both teams defenses rank above the offenses in conference efficiency which we like to look for when considering Unders. One thing that can kill under bets is if both teams end up getting to the FT line a lot. That shouldn’t be the case here as both defenses foul infrequently giving up just 15% and 17% of their opponents points at the line. So there shouldn’t be a ton of FT’s in this game and when they do get there neither team is great at the line with MSU shooting 63% and UT hitting 71%. We expect this one to be a grind it out, physical SEC match up. Under is the call. |
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01-26-21 | Western Michigan v. Ohio OVER 141 | Top | 58-81 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 141 Western Michigan @ Ohio U, 6PM ET Ohio U has scored 75+ points in seven straight games and has played in two straight that ended with 168 and 162 total points. In their last three games the Bobcats have scored 78 or better and that was against teams rated slightly better than Western in defensive efficiency. In fact, Ohio recently played Northern Illinois at home, who is comparable to Western in terms of pace, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency and they combined for 149 total points. Ohio U is the second most efficient offense in the conference averaging 1.119-points per possession but they’re also the 2nd worst when it comes to defensive efficiency. Western has had trouble scoring points with an offensive efficiency rating in MAC play below 1-point per possession BUT they’ve faced the five best defensive teams in the conference in their last five games. Again, now they face Ohio who has one of the worst defenses in MAC play. WMU just played Akron and Vegas set a number of 138 on their game and the Zips are similar to Ohio U on offense but much better defensively. WMU and Akron finished with 147 total points. This one GOES OVER rather easily. |
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01-20-21 | VCU v. St Bonaventure UNDER 140.5 | Top | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
#669/670 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 140.5, VCU @ St Bonaventure, Wed at 5 PM ET - Value here is on the Under according to our numbers. We had this total set at 136 and when it came out at 138 we liked the value. Now that it has been bet up a few more points the UNDER now is a play on for us. VCU likes to play fast and when they face off with opponent that would prefer to play at a quick tempo, they’ve had some high scoring games. They are averaging 76 PPG on the season but their numbers are higher than they should be because the majority of their opponents are fast paced. The Rams have played 13 games this season and only 4 of those were vs teams ranked 200 or lower in pace of play. In those 4 games vs slower paced teams, the average combined points scored was 126 and only 1 of those games topped 140. St Bonnies ranks 275th in tempo and they are at home in this game. We’ve found it’s much easier to slow a team down rather than speed a team up. In other words, the slower team usually gets the tempo they prefer. We also have 2 top notch defenses here both ranking in the top 60 nationally in both defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Bonnies have topped 140 just twice this year and they’ve now gone under the total in 5 straight. The Rams have gone under in 5 of their last 6 road games. The last 2 years when these teams have met the totals have been set in the 120’s. Now 140? Someone is going to have to get to 70+ points for this to have a shot at going over and our numbers say neither get there. Take the UNDER. |
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01-17-21 | Indiana State v. Illinois State OVER 140.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
#829/830 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 140.5 Points – Indiana State @ Illinois State, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These 2 played yesterday with Indiana State winning 73-65 for a total score of 138. They reached that number despite both shooting poorly (40.8% combined overall) and neither hitting 30% from the 3-point line. Both are solid 3-point shooting teams hitting 35% & 38% on the season so we expect a much better effort on the offensive end on Sunday. Both underachieved as well on a points per possession basis with the Sycamores putting up 1.00 PPP and the Redbirds 0.89 PPP, both below their season averages. Neither team is good defensively 273rd and 277th nationally in eFG% defense. Illinois State has allowed at least 70 points in 8 of their 11 games on the season and Indiana State has given up at least 70 in 7 of their 12 games. Their overall offensive numbers in league don’t look great with Indiana State averaging 67 PPG in league play and Illinois State averaging 61 PPG, however of their 12 combined games in the MVC this season, 8 of them have come against the 3 top defensive teams in the league (Loyola, Drake, and Mizzou St). Both like to play fast and it took a half for each offense to get comfortable with the opposing defense yesterday. After scoring just 57 combined points in the first half they put up 81 in the 2nd. We say they pick up where they left off on Saturday and this goes over the total (currently set at 141). |
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01-10-21 | Minnesota v. Iowa UNDER 164 | Top | 71-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
#825/826 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 164 Points – Minnesota @ Iowa, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET - These two met just a few weeks ago and Minnesota pulled the upset 102-95 in OT. The total on that high scoring affair was set at 165 and even with the huge numbers put up in that game, this total is set lower. Hmmm. A closer look reveals that these teams ended regulation at 166 and it took a LOT of crazy stuff happening late in the game to get to that number. The halftime score was 38-33 so on pace for 142. The two teams combined to score 24 points in the last 3+ minutes and 15 points in the last minute of play alone. That game was sitting at 151, looking like an easy under, with 60 seconds remaining. On top of all that, the 2 teams combined to make 52 of their 67 FT attempts in the game (77.6%). The offensive efficiency numbers in that game were through the roof with Minnesota averaging 1.32 points per possession & Iowa 1.23. You can bet both coaches were focused on improving their defense here in the 2nd meeting. With Iowa right around a 10 point favorite, the projected score here is right around 87-77. Minnesota has played 3 road games in Big 10 play and scored 57, 59, and 65 points. They are shooting just 30% from the field in road games. Iowa might have to get to 90 for this to have any chance. While they did that in abundance before conference play, they haven’t reached 90 a single time (in regulation) since Big 10 play began. UNDER is the value play here. |
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01-09-21 | Virginia v. Boston College OVER 131 | Top | 61-49 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 131 Virginia at Boston College, 2PM ET Granted it’s hard to play Over on a Cavaliers game but we’ll do it here with the value in the number. Virginia is one of THE slowest paced teams in college basketball but they have one of the best offensive efficiency ratings at 1.111 points per possession. The Cavs have put up 66 and 70 points in their last two games against Notre Dame and Wake Forest and both ended with 123 total points and 131. Those two teams don’t play anywhere near as fast as Boston College who is 45th in tempo and 84th in average possession length. The Eagles are also 82nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and average 1.066PPP. Virginia will score here too against a BC defense that is last in the ACC in defensive efficiency. The lowest total points scored in a BC game this year is 133 in Game 2 against Rhode Island. The Eagles have totaled 140 or more in 8 straight games. Bet this one Over! |
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01-06-21 | Rhode Island v. Richmond UNDER 145 | Top | 73-80 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 145 Rhode Island @ Richmond, 6PM ET Both teams are average in pace of play or tempo but both are very good when it comes to defensive efficiency. The Spiders have played a very tough schedule yet allow just .947 points per possession which is 61st in the country. Rhode Island is top 100 in defensive efficiency allowing just .908PPP and they hold foes to a miniscule 40% shooting which is 18th best in the nation. Rhode Island is coming off a 162 total point game against St Joes but that was in overtime and the two teams had just 140 total points at the end of regulation. Prior to that game the Rams had totaled less than this number in five straight games. Richmond just played a St Bonaventure team that is similar to Rhode Island and those two teams combined for 135 total points. Atlantic 10 conference games this season are averaging just 134.7PPG, last year that average was 135.6PPG. In their one season clash last season these two teams combined for 130 total points. According to our model this total is set higher than it should be and the value is on the UNDER. |
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01-02-21 | Oral Roberts v. Nebraska-Omaha OVER 152.5 | Top | 95-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 152.5 Oral Roberts @ Nebraska Omaha, 5 PM ET - The Summit League Conference was the most efficient offensive conference in college hoops a year ago and the 4th fastest. As a whole, the conference also had the #1 ranked effective FG% at 52.7%. Oral Roberts was the 2nd most efficient offense in the league at 1.154 points per possession, Nebraska Omaha was 5th at 1.076PPP. Defensively though these two were two of the three worst in the Summit and gave points up in bunches. NEOM has given up 82 or more points in 5 of their last seven games while Oral Roberts has given up 79 or more in all five games against quality opponents they've faced this season. The kicker here is that both teams want to play fast. The Golden Eagles are the 57th fastest paced team in college per adjusted tempo while Nebraska Omaha is 63rd. Considering how bad each team's defenses are and how fast they want to play this game should get to 159 or more. |
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12-31-20 | Nevada v. New Mexico OVER 147 | Top | 68-54 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 147 Nevada @ New Mexico, 9 PM ET - Last season an ‘average’ game in the Mountain West Conference was 144 total points. Nevada was the 3rd fastest paced team in the conference while New Mexico was 2nd. Nevada had the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.107 points per possession. New Mexico was slightly below average in the MWC in OEFF at 1.031PPP. When it came to defense the Wolfpack were 5th in defensive efficiency ratings, the Lobos ranked 9th. New Mexico has been extremely fast paced under Paul Weir and typically score well but their numbers this year are skewed after playing a fantastic defensive team in Boise State (twice). Boise has held 5 of seven opponents to less than 60-points, and currently hold foes to under .960 points per possession. Nevada is currently 65th in adjusted tempo this season and will look to run here after a low scoring game against Air Force. Last season the oddsmakers set Totals of 161 and 153 on the two meetings between these two schools. In those games they combined for 162 and 170 total points. The bet here is OVER! |
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12-30-20 | Murray State v. Belmont OVER 145.5 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 145.5 Murray State @ Belmont, 7PM ET These two teams will again be two of the best teams in the Ohio Valley Conference and last season they met three times with Total points scored of: 151, 135 and 160. The game played in Belmont last season had a Total set of 150 but they only managed 135 points. Digging into that game we find the two teams played fast enough, but Murray State had a really poor shooting night at 39% while Belmont hit just 4 of 25 3-pointers. Those numbers were very uncharacteristic of both teams as they were exceptional shooting teams last season, and both were extremely efficient offensively. Belmont will dictate tempo here and want to play fast. The Bruins are a top 100 team in efficiency this season, 58th in adjusted pace and 46th in effective field goal percentage. Murray State has been a little slower than normal this year but will be forced to keep pace with Belmont. The Racers are 108th in OEFF this season and 40th in EFG%. Last season the OVC games averaged 144.5 Total points per game and this contest features two of the best offenses in the league. |
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12-29-20 | Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 147.5 | Top | 87-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 147.5 Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan, 7 PM ET - There is some tremendous value in the number here as these two MAC foes met twice last season and the oddsmakers posted Totals of 138.5 on each game. When EMU was the home team, they dictated tempo and the two teams combined for 130 total points. The game at CMU was a little higher scoring with a Total of 143 but that still gets the cash here. The style of play for these teams couldn’t be any different as Central wants to get up and down while Eastern prefers a much slower tempo. In conference games a year ago, Eastern was the slowest team in the MAC and also the worst offensively with a .930 points per possession average in league play. EMU made up for it though with the second-best defensive efficiency number in the MAC. Conversely, Central was the second fastest team in the league but just 8th in OEFF. CMU wasn’t great defensively though ranking 8th in DEFF allowing 1.038PPP. This season Central Michigan has faced another MAC foe in Western Michigan who is very similar to Eastern and those two teams combined for 137 Total points. Our model is projecting 141 total points here which has us on the UNDER. |
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12-26-20 | Oakland v. Detroit UNDER 155 | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* UNDER 155 Oakland @ Detroit Mercy, 4PM ET The oddsmakers have set a bad Total on this game and we plan to take advantage of this number. Our math model projects just 147-points in this Horizon League clash. Let’s start with the Horizon League. Last year conference games averaged 143 total points with Oakland and Detroit the 7th and 5th slowest paced teams in the league. Not only that these two teams were average in terms of offensive efficiency in conference action. In comparison, Detroit just played Wright State who was the 2nd fastest team in the conference last season with the highest offensive efficiency rating. In the two games last week Wright State and Detroit combined for 157 and 163 total points. Oakland is coming off a pair of games against Illinois Chicago last week which ended with 163 and 146 total points being scored. The oddsmakers had set Totals of 142 and 141 on those two games and UIC was similar to Detroit last season in terms of tempo. Last season in the two meetings between these two teams the Vegas numbers were 141 and 137 which are significantly lower than the number set this year. The two games last season finished with 141 and 147 total points. Easy call with UNDER here. |
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12-21-20 | Texas State v. Northern Arizona UNDER 132.5 | Top | 70-65 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 132.5 Texas State vs. Northern Arizona, 3PM ET - There is no other way to put this, but this game is going to be ugly. Both teams have struggled offensively this season with No. Arizona checking in with the 306th ranked offensive efficiency rating at .935 points per possession. The Lumberjacks are also one of the slowest teams in the nation in terms of tempo and average possession length. They have the 325th effective shooting percentage, rank 308th in 3-point shooting and 319th in 2-pt percentage AND it’s come against a weak schedule. The Lumberjacks have scored 64 or below in each outing, and 53 or below in three of four. Northern just played a fast paced, high scoring Eastern Washington team and they totaled 144-points. Texas State also prefers to play slow, ranking 330th in tempo and 291st in average possession length. The Bobcats average just .978-points per possession and don’t shoot it well with an EFG% of 48.4%. Texas State just played a fast-paced Denver team and totaled 138. This game is being played at Magness Arena in Denver which means higher altitude and fatigue becomes a factor. Neither team gets to 65 here. Bet UNDER |
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12-17-20 | San Francisco v. Oregon OVER 143 | Top | 64-74 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Over 143 San Francisco vs. Oregon, 8PM ET The opening number on this game was 148 and has fallen throughout the day to the current number which gives us additional value. San Francisco is a team that has made some noise this season with a few quality wins over Virginia and Nevada and a couple close games against Rhode Island and California. The Dons are a senior laden team that can play with anyone right now and will compete with this Ducks team. San Francisco and California just put up 142 total points and the Cal Bears are one of THE slowest paced teams in college basketball. SF is averaging 1.068 points per possession which ranks 64th best in the nation. They shoot the 3-ball extremely well at 40% and should have success here against an Oregon team that is below average in defending the 3. The Ducks are below average in terms of pace of play, but they have the 15th best offensive efficiency numbers in college basketball at 1.109 points per possession. The Ducks averaged 76PPG last season while San Francisco scored 74PPG a year ago. Our model projects both teams scoring 75 or more points in this contest. Bet OVER. |
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12-16-20 | South Florida v. Cincinnati UNDER 132 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on UNDER 132 South Florida vs. Cincinnati, 7 PM ET - Two really good defensive teams square off on Wednesday and we can’t see either team getting to the mid 60’s. The South Florida Bulls are six games into the season and have the 59th most efficient defense in college hoops allowing just .933 points per possession. They are also one of the slowest paced teams in the country at 248th. Those numbers are a true representation of this team as last season they were literally one of the slowest paced teams in all college hoops and had a defense that allowed .959 points per possession which was good for 63rd. On the other end of the court the Bulls weren’t good offensively a year ago with a horrendous EFG percentage, 3-point shooting and overall offensive efficiency. Cincinnati was 51st in defensive efficiency a year ago allowing under.950PPP, ranked 199th in pace and had the 25th best EFG% defense in college hoops. This season the Bearcats have been better yet defensively allowing just .912PPP. They are highly efficient offensively but also prefer a slower tempo and do not shoot the 3 well at 25%. Cincinnati also has a bigger game on deck with Georgia and may not be as focused here. Our model projects 127 total points. |
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12-15-20 | Minnesota v. Illinois OVER 146.5 | Top | 65-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 146.5 Minnesota vs Illinois, 7 PM ET - We feel the oddsmakers had the correct opening number on this game and will bet against the move. Let’s start with the tempo or pace of play. Both teams have enough games under their belts for us to know what their preferred style of play is going to be this season. The Illini are 94th in tempo and have an average possession length of 16 seconds which is 82nd in the nation. Illinois is also highly efficient of the offensive end of the floor averaging 1.114 points per possession. HC Brad Underwood is known for his offense and it’s showing this year with a team that has the 8th best effective field goal percentage in the nation, shoot 44.3% from beyond the arc (8th best) and average 88PPG. Minnesota like to play fast also with the 67th fastest paced team in college basketball this season. On average the Gophers get a shut up every 14.8 seconds which is 25th in the country. Minnesota has scored 85 or more points in four of six games this season which has turned into a 84.2PPG scoring average this season. Yes, both teams have some impressive defensive numbers but the pace of this game and offenses will outshined each teams’ defenses. Let’s not forget the average total points scored in a college game this season is 145 so asking these two teams to score more than that is not a stretch. |
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12-13-20 | Wright State v. Bowling Green OVER 150.5 | Top | 85-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 150.5 Wright State vs. Bowling Green 12 PM ET - Our math model has again uncovered a glaring error by the oddsmakers on a line in college hoops on Sunday. The projections for the Wright State vs. Bowling Green game are 160 according to our computers and we couldn’t agree more with them. Let’s examine last years numbers first. Bowling Green was much faster than average in terms of pace of play a year ago ranking 81st in tempo and 88th in average possession length at 16.6 seconds. The Falcons were above average in terms of offensive efficiency and well below average in terms of defensive efficiency. In other words, they score, and allow opponents to score. Bowling Green just played Buffalo who is similar to Wright State in many key statistical categories and they combined for 164 total points. Wright State only has two games under their belt this season but already look very similar to last years team that was 31st in tempo, 132nd in offensive efficiency and around average in defensive efficiency. Wright State was the 7th highest scoring team in the nation last season at 80PPG. BG put up 74PPG and this game sets up to be a shootout. |
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12-12-20 | Wofford v. South Florida UNDER 134.5 | Top | 56-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Under 134.5 Wofford vs. South Florida, 12 PM ET This is a very low number, but we will play UNDER here in the Wofford vs. South Florida game. Both teams have several similarities here as they play extremely slow offensively and are known for their defensive intensity. Last year the Bulls were literally one of the slowest paced teams in college basketball ranking 324th in tempo and they took 18.5 seconds to get a shot up which was 308th. Defensively they were outstanding allowing just .959 points per possession which was 63rd in the nation. Wofford was 293 in pace last year and took 18 seconds on average to get a shot off which was 257th in college hoops a year ago. Defensively the Terriers are allowing less than 1.000 points per possession this season. Last season Wofford did not have great defensive numbers but part of that was a byproduct of playing in the Southern Conference which had six teams in the top 80 in terms of tempo last season. Last year when these two teams met, they combined for just 124 total points on 96 field goal attempts. Both teams shot well, and it still didn’t have a chance to go Over. Easy bet Under. |
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12-11-20 | Niagara v. St. Peter's UNDER 135 | Top | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 135 Niagara vs. St Peters, 8 PM ET |
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12-10-20 | San Diego State v. Arizona State OVER 142 | Top | 80-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: OVER 142 San Diego State vs. Arizona State, 10PM ET We like OVER here, even more with the line drop from 147 to where it currently stands. There are a few givens here that help us accurately predict a higher scoring game here. We know for a fact the Sun Devils are going to play fast and score points. In a short sample size the Sun Devils are averaging 1.113 point per possession (10th nationally) and typically take just 15.5 seconds to get a shot up which is 46th. That coincides to last year’s averages of 1.060PPP (108th) and an Adjusted Tempo of 73.2 which was 14th. Arizona State averaged 74PPG a season ago. ASU was below average in points allowed per game last season (195th) at 71PPG allowed. ASA played a better version of San Diego State earlier this season and Vegas set a number of 158 on that game and the two teams combined for 157 total points. We haven’t overlooked the fact the Aztecs play extremely slow and are fantastic defensively. SDSU is 24th in defensive efficiency this season and were 10th last season allowing just .9000 points per possession. But they are also highly efficient on offense and score 1.070 points per possession, shoot 3’s well at 32.4% and have an EFG% of 50. The Aztecs attempt a lot of three pointers at 24 per game and ASU is not great at defending beyond the arc. The Total on this game has been over-compensated and sets up for an EASY OVER! |
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12-09-20 | Northern Iowa v. Richmond OVER 148.5 | Top | 68-78 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 148.5 Northern Iowa vs Richmond, 6 PM ET - Our models are projecting 154 or more total points on this contest as two highly efficient offenses square off. Richmond is averaging 1.075 points per possession this season which is 44th best in college hoops. That’s no fluke as the Spiders were 53rd last season at 1.092PPP. Richmond also prefers a faster tempo style of play as they ranked 124th in adjusted tempo a year ago and are 58th this season. On average it takes Richmond just 15.4 seconds to get a shot up. They have an effective FG% of 54.8% which is also outstanding. Richmond has faced two very slow paced teams this season in Morehead State and Wofford and one really good defensive team in Kentucky which has kept this O/U number from getting too high. No. Iowa is also very efficient at 1.058PPP this season which is slightly lower than last years number of 1.127 which was 23rd in the nation. The Panthers have a 54.9% EFG percentage, rank 123rd in pace this season and hit 44.6% of their 3-point attempts. Northern Iowa has played one similar opponent to Richmond (in terms of pace and offensive efficiency) this season and that was Utah State. That game resulted in 153 total points. |
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12-08-20 | Austin Peay v. Murray State UNDER 147 | Top | 57-87 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 147 Austin Peay vs. Murray State, Tues 8:30PM ET Austin Peay and Murray State are two of the best teams in the Ohio Valley Conference, along with Belmont, and this should be a fantastic early conference game to start the season. These two teams played three times last season with Murray State winning 2 of three, including a conference tourney win to end AP’s season. Both teams are loaded with returning talent which gives up a great barometer for this season’s matchup. In the three games last season Vegas posted totals of 143, 142 and 145 and all three ended with 139 or fewer total points being scored. In other words, we are getting more value with today’s O/U number and a solid history of 5 of the last six meetings being Unders. Last season Ohio Valley conference games averaged 142 total points per game. Austin Peay was the 2nd slowest paced teams in conference action a year ago while Murray State was 5th. Murray State was the best defensive team in the OVC allowing just .943 points per possession. Austin Peay was 3rd at 1.000PPP. The Under trend continues in the rivalry. Bet UNDER. |
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12-08-20 | Northern Kentucky v. Dayton UNDER 137.5 | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* UNDER 137.5 Northern Kentucky at Dayton, 7 PM ET - It’s early and we have a very small sample size, but the average total points scored in a college game right now is 145 points. This total is set a few made baskets less than an average game but the only way these two teams get there is if they have an unusually high shooting percentage. Dayton has played two games this season and totaled 129 and 130 total points against Eastern Illinois and SMU. SMU ranks 193rd in pace of play while Eastern is slower yet at 293 in tempo. Now the Flyers face a Northern Kentucky team that is 280th in tempo this year and were 304th last season. NKU was also particularly good defensively a year ago allowing less than 1.000 point per possession. The Norse have three games under their belt this season with totals of 147, 139 and 151 but we are most concerned about the 139 game against Tennessee Tech who is like Dayton in terms of tempo. The Flyers are 309th in pace this season and ranked 220th last year. Dayton also had the 38th best defensive efficiency rating in college hoops a year ago. NKU is on a 12-4 Under streak their last sixteen road games while Dayton is on a 4-0 Under run themselves. |
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12-05-20 | Samford v. Belmont OVER 157 | Top | 96-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: OVER 157 Samford vs. Belmont, 5PM ET - This game sets up to be a high scoring affair with two teams that want to get out and run, get easy buckets in transition, and outscore opponents. Last season Belmont was the 65th fastest paced team in college hoops and a top 100 team in terms of offensive efficiency. The Bruins got it done mainly from “downtown” with a team that shot 34.8% from beyond the arc (94th) and were 10th in effective FG% at 54.8%. On average it took Belmont just 15.7 seconds to get a shot off last season which was 22nd in the nation. Belmont will continue to play fast this season with the 46th fastest paced tempo and an offense that is averaging 1.039 points per possession (84th). The Bruins played another team this season, Howard, who is remarkably similar to this Samford team in terms of pace and are poor defensively. In that game (Belmont/Howard) they combined for 173 total points. As for Samford we know they are going to push the pace as they rank 28th in tempo this season and were 25th last season. In the 2019 season the Bulldogs took just 15.9 seconds to get a shot up which was 34th fastest in college hoops. Samford was horrendous defensively a year ago ranking 332nd in defensive efficiency and 342nd in 3-point opponent 3-point shooting, which plays right into Belmont’s hands. Last season these two teams combined for 158, the year before 164 in regulation. This year will be higher yet. |
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12-02-20 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas OVER 148 | Top | 60-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
ASA play on: Over 148 UT Arlington vs. Arkansas, Weds 9PM ET This really could not set up any better than it does with the results of the games played thus far. Starting with Texas Arlington. UTA put up 151 total points against Northwestern State, 147 with Louisiana Tech and 143 with Oklahoma State. In the NWST game the two teams combined for 142 shot attempts which is 28 more FG attempts than last year's national average. Northwestern State also plays a similar style of play as Arkansas which is up-tempo, but UTA and NWST both shot poorly or that game ends with way more than 151 total points. Against LA Tech, a slower paced team, the Mavericks also got 70 field goal attempts up but again didn’t shoot it as well, and the game still ended with 147 total points. UTA also faced Oklahoma State who was (slow) 238th in possessions per game last season and a top 90 team in terms of defensive efficiency ratings. Now the Mavs face an Arkansas team that was 49th in possessions per game a year ago which ranked 49th in the nation. The Hogs take just 14.5 seconds to get a shot up this season which is 20th fastest in college hoops. Arkansas is averaging 1.068 points per possession and have the 22nd best effective FG percentage in the country right now. Arkansas put up 142 points themselves in their opener but then played a slow and deliberate North Texas team which resulted in just 123 total points, 69 for Arkansas. North Texas though was 340th in possessions per game last year out of 353 schools so they got the tempo they wanted, and it led to an extremely low scoring game. Arkansas is very capable of putting up 85+ in this game and Arlington has enough capable scoring options to keep this close throughout. In the end it is 155 total points. |
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12-01-20 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Creighton OVER 149 | Top | 67-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 149 Nebraska-Omaha vs. Creighton, 5PM ET We can make a solid case for an over bet here when these instate schools face off on Tuesday. Let’s start with Creighton who is ranked as the 2nd best team in the Big East and a top ten overall ranking in college basketball. The Jays are coming a lower scoring win 69-58 over North Dakota State which has helped keep this line lower than it should be. Inside the numbers we find that Creighton actually played faster in the game with 63 field goal attempts but shot poorly at 43% overall and 23% from the 3-point line. They were also up against a NDSU team that was one of the slowest paced in college basketball last year at 275. Creighton was 148th in pace of play last season. Those shooting statistics are significantly lower than their season average from a year ago when they made 46.9% from the field (23rd) and 38.7% from beyond the arc which was 6th best in the nation. With a loaded roster and coming off that bad shooting night we expect a drastically better scoring output for the Bluejays here, especially against a Nebraska Omaha team that was 286th in defensive efficiency, 300th in effective FG% defense and 306th in defending the 3-pointer last season. The other team on the floor in this game, Nebraska Omaha, was the 66th fastest paced team in college hoops last year and want to get up and down. NEOM averaged 73.5PPG last season which was good for 85th in the nation. Creighton will get to the mid-to-high 80’s here and NEOM gets to the mid-to-high 60’s. Bet Over! |
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11-30-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Duquesne UNDER 144.5 | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 144.5 Arkansas Little Rock vs. Duquesne, Monday 4PM ET A team we will have our eyes on early in the season will be Duquesne. They return a ton of talent (7 of top 8 scorers) to a team that finished 21-9 SU last season but this is their first game of the season while UALR has two games under their belts so we aren’t interested in betting a side here. What we do like here is a lower scoring game with two very deliberate teams in terms of pace of play. Last season the Dukes ranked 244 in terms of average possession length as it took them on average 17.9 seconds to take a shot. They had an adjusted tempo of 67.8 which ranked 211th. They protected the rim with a top 10 ranking in block percentage and defended the 3-point line extremely well allowing 30.1% from beyond the arc. Arkansas Little Rock is 1-1 on the season and put up 70 and 71 points respectively in their two games. They shot better than expected in both and only attempted 51 and 48 field goal attempts in both games. That ties into the fact they only attempted 53 field goals per game last season which ranks 333 out of 353 schools. Last season UALR had a decent overall offensive efficiency rating but those lofty numbers came because of playing in the Sun Belt, which typically plays fast, and isn’t known for their defense. According to our math models this game projects out to just 134 total points being scored. The bet here is UNDER. |
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03-11-20 | Georgia Southern v. Georgia State OVER 152 | 81-62 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Over 152 Points - Georgia Southern vs Georgia State, Wed at 7 PM ET These two have given us a solid indication of how this game will be played tonight based on their 2 meetings already this year. It should be fast and high scoring. Georgia State ranks 15th nationally in adjusted tempo and Georgia Southern ranks 34th in the same category. These teams do not walk the ball up the court very often. Their 2 meetings this year gave us final scores of 82-77 (159 points) and 79-70 (149 points). Both teams shot the ball well below their averages and the games were still high scoring. In their game that reached 159 points the two teams combined to make only 35% of their shots and 27% of their 3 point shots. In that game on a points per possession basis Georgia State averaged 1.01 PPG (they average 1.06 on the season) and Georgia Southern put up only 0.95 PPP (they average 1.02 PPP). The 2nd game which fell at 149 the two teams had similar stats. They combined to make only 40% of their overall shots and only 28% of their 3’s. Their PPP numbers in the 2nd game were quite poor (0.95 for Ga Southern & 0.84 PPG for Ga State) and they still fell just 1 point short of 150. One thing they did prove they could do offensively is get to the FT line vs one another. Both teams in this rivalry committed lots of fouls in their 2 games and they went to the line a combined 54 times in game 1 and 56 times in game 2. We expect high FT numbers here as the teams meet @ Georgia State. If they decide to shoot closer to their averages, this game will go well OVER this number. Even if they shoot poorly, they’ve proven the can still score points vs each other. Their last 4 meetings the last 2 seasons have yielded totals of 175, 159, 153, and 149 so high scoring games have been the norm. Take the OVER in this big Sun Belt match up. |
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03-11-20 | Fordham v. George Washington UNDER 122.5 | Top | 72-52 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Under 122.5 Points - Fordham vs George Washington, Wed at 3:30 PM ET These two teams have met twice this year and scored 115 & 113 points. Those 2 meetings were at small home courts and this one is at a large NBA arena (Brooklyn Nets) which should cause even more problems for the offenses. In their 2 games these teams made 18, 19, 20, and 22 field goals which is extremely low. They combined to shoot just 37% and averaged only 52 field goal attempts per game. That parallels what they’ve done this season as these teams simply don’t get many shots off (Fordham is 231st in FG attempt rate & GW is 253rd). When they do get shots up they aren’t very accurate shooting teams. Fordham is one of the worst shooting teams in the nation making only 37% (346th out of 351) and George Washington isn’t great hitting 43% (181st nationally). Neither team gets to the FT line very often (Fordham is 342nd in FT attempt rate & GW is 263rd in that category) and when they do neither shoots above 70%. Fordham’s defense is very good ranking 85th in defensive efficiency, 75th in defensive FG% and 54th in 3-point defense. GW’s defense is a notch or two behind Fordham, however they have proven they can hold this bad Ram’s offense in check in their 2 meetings this season. There are only 2 teams in the nation that score fewer points than Fordham who averages 58 PPG and away from home just 55 PPG. The Colonials average only 65 PPG on the season (315th) and away from home just 61 PPG. On top of all that, these are 2 of the slowest paced teams in the country (331st & 276th) and add that to the poor shooting we expect and this one should be very low scoring. Fordham is 10-19-1 to the UNDER this year while George Washington is 10-20-1 to the UNDER. With the line set at GW -3, it suggests a final score of somewhere in the range of 63-60. We don’t think either team reaches 60 in this game and well grab the UNDER here. |
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02-26-20 | Rutgers v. Penn State OVER 137.5 | 64-65 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Over 137.5 Points - Rutgers vs Penn State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET We’re getting some decent value on the OVER in this game. These two met back in January and the total was set at 140 (now 137 or 137.5). They combined to score 133 points in that game which is part of the reason for the lower total here. However, a closer look reveals these two both played poor offensively yet they still pushed near the mid 130’s. In that first meeting they combined to shoot 46 for 119 overall (38%). Even worse from beyond the arc where they combined to make just 8 of their 36 attempts (22%). The one thing they did do in that first game was get to the foul line quite a bit (42 FT attempts – 33 made FT’s). While we expect both teams to play better overall offensively, we can probably count on a bunch of FT’s again these teams foul a lot. Penn State fouls more than any other team in the Big 10 averaging 18 per game while Rutgers averages 17 per game. PSU is dead last in the conference in FTA allowed/FGA allowed and Rutgers is 11th. The Nittany Lions shoot the 3 well (4th best % in Big 10 play) and if Rutgers has a defensive weakness it’s defending the arc (6th in the Big 10). The Scarlet Knights, on the other hand, score most of their points inside the arc (1st in the conference at 60% of points scored) and PSU is 8th in the league at defending 2-point shots. Penn State is one of the faster paced teams in the Big 10 (45th nationally in adjusted tempo) and Rutgers would prefer to get up and down as well even though they rank in the middle of the conference in pace. PSU has had back to back poor offensive performances after averaging 78 PPG their previous 8 games. We expect them to bet back on track at home tonight where they average 77 PPG. Rutgers has scored at least 66 points in 4 of their last 5 games including topping 70 in 3 of those games. We like this game to push into the 140’s tonight so we’ll grab the OVER. |
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01-27-20 | Wisconsin v. Iowa OVER 135 | Top | 62-68 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Over 135 Points - Wisconsin @ Iowa, Monday at 8:30 PM ET This total opened at 138 which is exactly where we had it according to our power ratings. It has dropped 3 full points to 135 and now the value is absolutely on the OVER in this game. The Badgers are coming off an offensive clunker scoring only 51 points on Friday @ Purdue. They averaged just 0.86 points per possession in that game facing a Purdue defense that ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Boilers also love a slow paced game so there simply weren’t many possessions in that game. Wisconsin has struggled offensively in their 5 conference road games averaging just under 60 PPG. However they’ve played some of the top defenses in the nation in those 5 games facing the 9th, 11th, 18th, 19th, and 29th rated teams in defensive efficiency. Tonight they take on an Iowa team that ranks 85th in that category. The Hawkeyes are also the fastest paced team in the Big 10 and while we don’t expect a track meet as Wisconsin will slow the game down at times, we won’t have 2 teams that play at a snail’s pace. Iowa’s offense is best in the Big 10 and #3 nationally in efficiency averaging 1.18 PPP. They have scored at least 72 points in every Big 10 game but one. This is their 3rd consecutive home game and in their first 2 they put up 90 on a solid Michigan defense and 85 on a Rutgers defense that ranks 9th nationally in defensive efficiency. Wisconsin defense is solid but nothing like they were a few years ago when they were consistently the top defense in the Big 10. This year the Badgers rate 6th in the conference in defensive efficiency. As far as efficiency goes both offenses are better than the opposing defenses. Wisconsin’s 5th most efficient offense in conference play will be playing into an Iowa defense that ranks 9th in the league. Iowa’s offense ranks 1st in efficiency in Big 10 play and they will be facing a Wisconsin defense that ranks 6th. We also have 2 of the best FT shooting teams in the conference with both hitting over 75% in league play so we’ll get some extra points from the charity stripe. The last 6 meetings @ Iowa between these two rivals have totaled 138, 152, 126, 137, 153, and 136 points. All but one of those would have gone OVER tonight’s number. Our numbers have Iowa in the low 70’s here and we think Wisconsin has a decent shot to get to 70 as well. |
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12-22-19 | South Carolina v. Virginia UNDER 112 | Top | 70-59 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Under 112 Points - South Carolina @ Virginia, Sunday at 3 PM ET on ABC South Carolina likes a fast paced game but that won’t be happening here. UVA is the slowest paced team in the nation and they will control their tempo at home. The Cav defense is simply phenomenal ranking 1st nationally in defensive efficiency. They allow just 0.73 points per possession on the season. They have allowed a grand total of ONE team to top 55 points this year and in their 10 games they’ve held 8 opponents to 47 points or less. South Carolina is not a good shooting team (231st in eFG%, 304th in 3 point %, and make only 60% of their FT’s) and we have a hard time seeing them reaching 50 points here. On the other side, the Gamecocks are solid defensively ranking in the top 85 in defensive efficiency and in the top 35 in eFG% defense. Like South Carolina, the Cavs are not a good shooting team. They rank 317th in eFG% and 349th (3rd from the bottom) in 3 point percentage. Despite their 9-1 record, Virginia has topped 61 points just ONCE the entire season and that was when the put up 65 points on a James Madison defense that ranks 313th nationally in defensive efficiency. There will be very few 3-pointers made here and with the grinder pace this should be very low scoring. With the spread set at UVA -11.5, the expected outcome is approximately 62-51. Will UVA top 60 points? Odds are they will not. Will South Carolina get into the 50’s? We don’t think so. Take the UNDER here. |
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12-17-19 | Purdue v. Ohio UNDER 128 | 69-51 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
ASA 8* PLAY ON Under 128 Points - Purdue vs Ohio, Tuesday at 9 PM ET One key player is out (or most likely out) for each team tonight and both are key scorers. Purdue’s center Matt Haarms (11 PPG) is the Boilers 2nd leading scorer and he will sit with a concussion. Ohio’s Jordan Dartis (13 PPG) who is 3rd in the MAC in made 3’s per game has sat out the last 2 games with an injury and may not play tonight. This game should be a slow paced, slugfest. Purdue ranks 343rd in tempo while Ohio is 197th. The Boiler defense has been great all season long not allowing a single team to top 70 points on the season. Before Saturday’s poor defensive effort @ Nebraska where Purdue allowed 70 points, they had not allowed a team to reach 60 points (in regulation) since November 13th, a span of 6 games. For the season they allow their opponents to shoot only 38% and from beyond the arc just 27% which ranks them in the top 25 nationally. That’s a key in this game as Ohio gets 36% of their points from deep (79th nationally) and they will have problems putting up good numbers from beyond the arc here. We expect the Boilers, after their loss and subpar defensive game at Nebraska, to play very well on that end of the court tonight. Offensively Purdue is limited. Even more so with Haarms out of the lineup tonight. They rank below 200th in both FG% and 3 point FG% and the Boilermakers have been held under 60 points in 4 of their last 5 games. They have been limited to less than 0.95 points per possession in 4 of their last 5 games. In their true road games this year they are averaging just 55 PPG. Ohio has hit some higher scoring numbers a few times this season but they’ve played a very weak set of defensive teams. In fact, they’ve played only TWO defense currently ranked in the top 100 in defensive efficiency. In those games they put up 54 points vs Villanova (86th in defensive efficiency) and 53 points vs Baylor (10th in defensive efficiency). Tonight they face a Purdue defense that ranks 5th nationally in defensive efficiency. This game projects as a Purdue win 68-60 based on the point spread. We don’t think Ohio gets out of the 50’s here and the way Purdue is shooting they won’t push into the upper 60’s tonight. Under is the play. |
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11-21-19 | Tennessee Tech v. Winthrop UNDER 129 | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
ASA 8* PLAY ON Under 129 Points- Tennessee Tech @ Winthrop. Thursday at 7:30 PM ET Tennessee Tech’s offense has been putrid over the last week or so and we don’t see that changing tonight vs a solid Winthrop defense. Tech has scored 30, 47, and 39 points their last three games vs UNC Greensboro, App State, and Montana State. Their average points per possession in those 3 games were 0.43, 0.63, and 0.78 which is extremely poor. They are shooting just 36% as a team this season and they play very slow with their adjusted tempo ranking 312th nationally. The Winthrop defense has already held 4 of their 5 opponents this year to 61 points or less. That includes a very good St Mary’s offense (Winthrop win 61-59) and a very experienced East Tennessee State team that is one of the favorites to win the Southern Conference (61-58 ETSU win). We project Tech to score 55 points here and if that happens that means Winthrop would have to get to 75 points to push this over. The Eagles have gotten to 75 only once this season and that was against Mid Atlantic Christian. Tech has allowed 70 or more only twice in their six games this season. Neither team gets to the FT line very much with Winthrop ranking 337th in FGA/FTA and Tech even worse at 349th. Also when the few times these teams get to the FT line they are not adept at making them with Winthrop ranking dead last in college basketball making 43% of their FTs and Tennessee Tech making only 67%. Almost all of the scoring in this game will have to come from field which will make it tough to reach this number. We like the UNDER here. |
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11-19-19 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Kent State OVER 149.5 | Top | 68-75 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 149.5 Points - Purdue Fort Wayne @ Kent State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET Jon Coffman took over the PFW program back in 2015 and he has implemented a full speed, up tempo style that lends to a lot of points being scored. His team has been in the top 35 in adjusted tempo each of the last 3 years and they are at it again this season. That’s great offensively as their pace gives them more possessions and opportunities and their offense has been very effective. Since Coffman took over they have been in the top 35 in effective FG% in all but one of his seasons at the helm. They are headed there again this year as this is a very good shooting team that ranks in the top 70 in shooting percentage inside the arc and outside the arc. The Matadors have scored at least 78 points 4 of their 5 games and the only game that they did not was @ UNLV where they shot only 27% from beyond the arc but still scored 71 points. Now the downside to their tempo. Their defense stinks and their pace gives the opponent more shots as well. They currently rank 309th in defensive efficiency after 5 games and that is not an aberration. This team has not finished above 215th in defensive efficiency in any of Coffman’s seasons. They have allowed at least 79 points in 4 of their 5 games this season. That lends itself well tonight to a Kent offense that is averaging 78 PPG and likes to play fast when given the opportunity. The Kent defense was poor last year (274th in eFG% allowed) and we expect them to struggle on that end of the court again this year. They’ve haven’t been terrible in their 2 games vs Division 1 opponents this year allowing 43.5% shooting but even with that they gave up 151 points in those 2 games (75.5 PPG). With Kent favored by 10 and the total set at 149.5, the oddsmakers expect an 80-70 final score. We think Kent has a decent chance to top 80 vs a bad PFW defense. We also are confident that PFW has the offensive firepower to top 70 in this game. PFW has gone OVER the total 23 of their last 31 road games (75%). Take the OVER. |
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03-29-19 | Virginia Tech v. Duke UNDER 143 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 143 Points - Duke vs Virginia Tech, Friday at 9:40 PM ET These two played a few weeks ago and the total was set at 143. They went over by 6 points with Va Tech winning 77-72. Even with that, this total opened 145 and has been bet down to 143 which is telling. If you look closely at their only meeting a few weeks ago, both teams played lights out offensively with VT averaging 1.21 PPP and Duke averaging 1.14 PPG. Both teams shot 62% inside the arc and they combined to make 38 free throws so a lot of clocked stopped, free points. Even with that the game was still at 143 (73-70) with 20 seconds remaining in the game. Va Tech (332nd in tempo) made sure it was a slow paced game as each team had just 50 FG attempts. Expect the same tonight as the Hokies know they can’t get into a running game with Duke and expect to win. The Devils shoot very few 3’s and they are poor shooting team from deep (30% from 3) so they won’t have many threes. Va Tech does like shooting 3’s but they are playing a Duke defense that allows only 29.8% from beyond the arc this season so don’t expect the Hokies to light it up from deep. Neither team fouls very much so we don’t expect 38 made FT’s as they had a few weeks ago. These teams, both being in the ACC, know each other very well and have gone UNDER the total in 14 of their last 17 meetings. Duke has now gone under the total at a rate of 24-10-2 this year and going back further they are 36-17-2 to the UNDER their last 55 games. These two are also playing their first game in Capital One Arena in Washington DC so unfamiliar surroundings could lead to a rough shooting night as well. Two very good defenses (Duke 6th in defensive efficiency & VT 19th) and a slow paced game add up to an UNDER play tonight. |
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03-27-19 | Coastal Carolina v. DePaul OVER 163 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 163 Points - Coastal Carolina @ DePaul, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET Two red hot offensive teams going at it tonight in Chicago. DePaul loves playing at home where they average 81 PPG on 48% shooting. They are one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 49th in offensive efficiency and 74th in eFG%. In their last 4 home games the Demons have scored 92, 101, 100, and 97 points. We expect more of the same tonight as they face a Coastal Carolina team that is allowing 79 PPG on the road this season. DePaul loves to play fast (69th in tempo) and CC will do the same (77th in tempo). Not only does Coastal play fast, they can score in bunches as well. They average 77 PPG on the season and they’ve topped 90 in 4 of their last 8 games. They are coming off a game @ WVU in which they put up 109 points which was the most every vs a Bob Huggins team. They also allowed the Mountaineers to score 91 so the defense was far from stellar. CC should have very good success tonight offensively against a DePaul team that was the worst defense in the Big East this year ranking 282nd nationally in eFG% defense. The Blue Demons have allowed 85 PPG over their last 10 games with all but 2 of those opponents topping 80 points. Both teams played on Monday so a 48 hour turnaround will only make these defenses worse in our opinion. This line sits at DePaul -8 which suggests a final score of 86-78 or right in that range. We like both teams to surpass their projected score for tonight and we like the OVER. |
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03-26-19 | Florida International v. Green Bay OVER 176.5 | Top | 68-98 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 176.5 points - FIU @ UW Green Bay, Tuesday at 8 PM ET Two of the fastest paced teams in the nation and two terrible defenses lead to a high scoring track meet in this one. FIU is #1 in the nation in tempo getting a shot up every 14 seconds! UWGB is far behind as they rank 10th in tempo hoisting a shot an average of every 14.8 seconds. Both defenses are terrible with UWGB ranking 340th in scoring defense (out of 351 teams) and FIU ranks 337th. The Phoenix rank 284th in eFG% defense and FIU ranks 276th in the same category. On offense, Green Bay has scored 80+ points in 11 of their 15 home games this season and FIU allows more PPG (81 PPG overall / 86 PPG on the road) than any defense GB has faced this season. The same can be said for FIU. The worst scoring defense they have faced this season will be UWGB (82 PPG allowed). These two have each played one game in the CIT thus far with FIU beating Texas State 87-81 and UWGB topping East Tennessee State 102-94. Both high scoring games combining to go OVER by 55 points, yet the opponents were much different. Each were slow paced teams with much better defenses yet they still put up big numbers offensively. Texas State is ranked 305th in tempo and 72nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. ETSU ranks 203rd in efficiency and 112th in defensive efficiency. We like both teams to get to 90 points here which would send it OVER the total. |
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03-22-19 | Iona v. North Carolina UNDER 166.5 | Top | 73-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 166.5 Points - Iona vs North Carolina, Friday at 9:20 PM ET We see this game playing out very much like yesterday’s game between Gonzaga and Farleigh Dickinson. It was a game the Zags jumped out big and led 53-17 at halftime. In the 2nd half with a large lead, the Zags shut it down and coasted to an 87-49 win (146 points). FDU really struggled to score against the longer, more athletic Zags. We see Iona having the same problem here. If the Gaels were a prolific 3-point shooting team or really good shooting team period, then we wouldn’t be on this under. But the fact is, Iona was an average shooting team in a bad defensive conference. They rank 133rd nationally in offensive efficiency and 133rd in 3-point shooting percentage. That’s in an MAAC that was terrible defensively with 9 of their 11 teams ranking 200 or lower in defensive efficiency. Now Iona faces a UNC defense that ranks 10th nationally in that category. We feel Iona will struggle to get good shots and struggle to score in this game. UNC will score and they’ll run. That’s what they do. However, that’s what Gonzaga likes to do as well and you saw how that game turned out. UNC could score 50 or more by halftime but the in the 2nd half we look for them to slow the game down a bit, substitute players, and make sure they are fresh for Sunday, similar to what the Zags did yesterday. We don’t think Iona gets to 70 in this game. We look for low 60’s based on our numbers. If that happens UNC has to get to 100 for this to have a chance. Even if the Heels keep the pressure on, which we can’t imagine they will, and get to 95, Iona would have to get to 72 to get this game over the number. We just don’t see that happening. With UNC favored by 22 the oddsmakers see this score around 94-72. We think neither team reaches that number. Take the UNDER. |
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03-22-19 | Georgia State v. Houston UNDER 142 | Top | 55-84 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 142 Points - Georgia State vs Houston, Friday at 7:20 PM ET This play is backed by a longtime trend that involves a #3/#14 seed which is 12-30 to the Under the last 42 times it’s applied. This Houston Cougars team isn’t the Phi Slama Jama team of the early 80’s, that was built on transition and outscoring opponents. This Cougars team is tenacious defensively with the 13th overall defensive efficiency rating and the #1 EFG% defense. Houston is the 2nd best team in nation in defending the 3-point shot and 5th against 2-pointers. The Cougars also protect the rim with a team that ranks 20th in the country in block percentage. On the year Houston held opponents to just 36.7% shooting and 61.2PPG. Georgia State allowed 1.026 points per possession this year which is above average by national standards, but it was their D late in the season which has us excited for this Under. In their last five games the Panthers have held opponents to just 37% shooting and an average of 65PPG. And three of those five games came against the best teams in the Sun Belt, which is an efficiency conference overall that likes to play fast. In their two Sun Belt tourney games the Panthers combined for just 105 points with Texas State and 137 with UT Arlington. The bet here is UNDER the total. |
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03-21-19 | St. Mary's v. Villanova UNDER 131 | Top | 57-61 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 131 Points - St Marys vs Villanova, Thursday at 7:20 PM ET St Mary’s won WCC tourney by beating Gonzaga 60-47. Nova won the Big East tourney winning their 3 games by margins of 11, 4 in OT, and 2 points. Zags averaged 90 PPG on the season and St Mary’s held them to 69 & 47 points their final 2 meetings of the season. Gaels held 6 of their final 8 opponents to 65 points or less and they play very slow ranking #347 in tempo out of 351 teams. Villanova plays very slow as well (#333 in tempo) so not many possessions in this game. Nova relies heavily on the 3-point shot with almost 43% of their points coming from beyond the arc (9th most nationally). The Gaels defend the 3 well so that should make it tough on Nova's offense. Neither team fouls very much so we don't expect many points from the charity stripe in this game. Neither team is adept at forcing turnovers and both protect the ball well offensively so we won't see many steals and run outs here. We expect this game to be a grinder with the winner scoring in the low 60's. UNDER is the play. |
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03-21-19 | Murray State v. Marquette OVER 149 | Top | 83-64 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
OVER 149.5 Murray State vs Marquette, Thursday at 4:30 PM ET (Hartford, CT) Murray State can score as they average 81 PPG. Guard Ja Morant will be a first round NBA pick and he is averaging 24 PPG. He’s not the only Racer that can score as they have 3 others that average more than 10 PPG. You’d think with good guard play Murray State shoots a lot of 3’s but they don’t. They score almost 54% of their points inside the arc which is 60th nationally. They also shoot 57% inside the arc which is the 2nd best percentage in the nation. Marquette is the opposite. They shoot a lot of 3’s and they make them at a 39.3% clip (9th nationally). Markus Howard, the Hauser brothers, and Sacar Anim ALL shoot over 40% from deep. They struggle to score inside with most of those points coming off 3-point misses. Murray State’s defense looks like they match up well as they give up only 28% from beyond the arc which is good for 4th best nationally. However, that might be exaggerated due to their easy schedule (270TH) which also plays a part in their inflated defensive efficiency numbers of .987 points per possession. Murray State ranks 97th in tempo or pace and get a shot up every 16.4 seconds which is 64th. Marquette is 119th in tempo and get a field goal attempt every 16.9 seconds for 96th. Both teams are top 50 in EFG% offense meaning they don’t need a lot of attempts to efficiently score. It all adds up to an EASY OVER! |
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03-21-19 | Bradley v. Michigan State UNDER 134 | Top | 65-76 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 134 Points - Bradley vs Michigan State, Thursday at 2:45 PM ET After starting the conference season 0-5, Bradley rallied and finished in 5th place in the MVC this year with a 9-9 record. They won the MVC tourney winning 3 games in 3 days last weekend, 2 of those as an underdog. The Braves scored just 61, 53, and 57 points in those 3 and were able to win all 3. Scoring has been a problem for Bradley scoring just 66 PPG this season finishing 8th in the 10 team league. This team hasn’t gotten to 70 points since February 9th. Braves play very slow (#299 in tempo) and rely on their defense which was #1 in the Missouri Valley in eFG% defense. Bradley will have a tough time getting their offense moving in the right direction vs MSU defense that ranks 8th in adjusted efficiency and 6th in eFG% defense. It’s easily the best defense Bradley has faced this year. To give you an idea, the top rated defense in the MVC is Loyola and they rank 99th in adjusted defensive efficiency, basically 90 spots below Michigan State. Only 1 of MSU’s last 11 opponents has topped 70 points. This should be a grinder and UNDER is the play. |
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03-15-19 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin UNDER 127 | Top | 62-66 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 127 Points - Nebraska vs Wisconsin, Friday at 3 PM ET This is a low number for a total but we don’t expect these two to get there. Nebraska is playing their 3rd game in 3 days so shooting legs will be an issue. They are a very thin team with only 6 scholarship players remaining. The Huskers were already a slow paced team but due to their limited numbers they have gone very slow in this tourney with just 105 and 101 shot attempts (both teams combined) in their first two games in this tourney. They’ve totaled 128 & 130 in those games and now they face the slowest paced team and the top defense in the Big Ten so we expect lower numbers than the first two games today. We had a winner on the UNDER yesterday in the Nebraska – Maryland game as they scored 129 but that was very deceiving as the game was on pace to score less than 115 for much of the game. They combined for 52 points in the final 10:00 minutes and it still only reached 130. Wisconsin will be playing their first game in this tourney so we look for them to struggle shooting the ball at the United Center. The Badgers have gone 12 straight games without scoring 70 points in regulation and we don’t expect it here. The Nebraska defense has held their first 2 opponents in this tourney to 61 points each so we anticipate mid 60’s at best for Wisconsin. The UW defense has held their Big Ten opponents to just 60 PPG (first in the conference) and we’d be shocked in the Huskers got out of the 50’s in this game. Wisconsin’s defense has not allowed more than 67 points in ANY of their last 15 games (in regulation) and over half of those opponents (8) did not top 60 points. In their lone meeting this year @ Nebraska, the oddmakers set the total at 128 which is nearly where we sit here in a much different circumstance. The Huskers were full strength in that game and it was in at Pinnacle Arena which is much more conducive to shooting well. Even with that the two combined to score only 113 combined points. We would lean Wisconsin in this game but with the spread sitting at -8 currently, that could be a bit dangerous in a low scoring game. We feel the UNDER is the much better way to go here. |
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03-14-19 | Nebraska v. Maryland UNDER 135 | Top | 69-61 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 135 Points - Nebraska vs Maryland, Thursday at 3 PM ET We were a bit unlucky with our UNDER play in the Big Ten last night as Northwestern vs Illinois landed on 122 on regulation (we had UNDER 135.5) but went over the total in overtime. The other Big Ten game yesterday (Nebraska vs Rutgers) totaled 129 to both games failed to reach 130 in regulation. As we stated yesterday, the United Center is a tough venue for shooting, especially when teams have not played here. The last 2 times Chicago hosted the Big Ten tourney the average points scored were 121 and 133. Nebraska shot just 40% yesterday vs Rutgers and made only 3 of 15 from beyond the arc. Today the thin Huskers (just 6 players played 10+ minutes) face a much tougher Maryland defense that is very long inside. The Huskers will have massive problems scoring inside due to the Terps length which means they’ll have to make 3’s which is tough in this venue. On top of that the Huskers aren’t a good 3 point shooting team in general hitting just 32% in Big Ten play this year (9th in the conference). NU benefitted yesterday from going to the line 32 times and making 23 which won’t happen today. Maryland will slow this game down (13th in the Big Ten in tempo) and we anticipate they’ll struggle shooting in their first game at the UC. The Terps aren’t a high scoring team to begin with and playing here won’t change that. Where this total is set the oddsmakers are expecting a 70-65 type game. Here’s the problem, Maryland has scored more than 70 points only ONCE in their last 12 games. This is the third time these two have faced each other this year so they are very familiar with each other which will make it tough to score. In their first meeting they totaled 142 points but combined to shoot 47% overall and 43% from beyond the arc. In their most recent meeting they totaled just 105 in a 60-45 Maryland win. This one should be low scoring and we don’t see it getting out of the 120’s. Take the UNDER. |
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03-13-19 | Northwestern v. Illinois UNDER 136 | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 136 points - Northwestern vs Illinois, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET These two in-state rivals just met on March 2nd with Illinois winning 81-76. The total in that game was set at 136 and it went over by 21 points. Despite that result from just 11 days ago, the oddsmakers again opened the total at 136 and it has dropped at some spots. Hmmm. We agree with the move and like the UNDER in this one. In their game 11 days ago the teams combined to attempt only 112 shots which isn’t a crazy high amount. The problem is, they MADE 50 free throws in the game. Not attempted, but made. That’s a ridiculously high amount and was nearly one third of the points scored in the game. To give you an idea of how high that is, Iowa leads college basketball averaging 18 made FT’s per game. So even if you have 2 Iowa’s play and make their average that’s only 36. That puts that number in perspective. Needless to say we don’t expect them to come anywhere near that number tonight. Northwestern is the worst offensive team in the league. They average just 60 PPG in conference play. They have been held below 60 points in 8 of their last 12 games. They may also be without one of their top offensive players as Vic Law (15 PPG) and even if he does play we can’t imagine he’ll be 100% after a pretty serious looking shin injury last Saturday. Illinois will want to play this game at a fast pace but NW knows they can’t win this game if that’s how it plays out. The Cats will want to slow this tempo down and usually if a team wants to play slow they get the pace they want. If Illinois doesn’t get the pace they want, they aren’t great in the half court. They shoot just 43% in league play and against the 4 slowest paced teams in the Big 10 (Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, & Michigan) the Illini got to 70 points just once in five games. Northwestern is very solid defensively (19th nationally in defensive efficiency) and while the Illini can struggle on that end of the court, we don’t think the Cats are potent enough offensively to take advantage of it. The United Center in Chicago has always been a tough shooting venue for college teams. It’s a huge arena and the back drop makes it tough. The last two Big 10 tourneys played here were in 2013 and 2015 and the average points scored in those tournaments was 121 and 133 respectively. We like the UNDER in this one. |
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03-10-19 | East Tennessee State v. Wofford UNDER 141 | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 141 Points - ETSU vs Wofford, Sunday at 4 PM ET These two met twice this year and both games were grinders for the most part. The final scores were both very deceiving as they put up 141 points in their first meeting and 154 in the 2nd meeting. The first game was on pace to go well under the total for the vast majority. In fact, the two teams had 124 combined points with just 1:40 remaining in the game. They scored 17 points from that point on to get to 141. If you divide the game up into 10 minute segments these two scored 33, 29, 33, and 46 points so you can see they went crazy late. In the second meeting the game was tied at 64-64 in regulation but went to OT where they ended up with 154 points. The points per possession numbers in that game were very high with both teams averaging more than 1.10 PPP yet they still only reached 128 in regulation. These are two of the top defensive teams in the SOCON (2nd and 4th in defensive efficiency) and the tempo shouldn’t be overly quick here with Wofford ranking last in tempo in the conference and ETSU ranking 6th. Both defenses have played better down the stretch than even their overall numbers indicate with Wofford allowing 60 PPG over their last 5 games on 41% shooting by their opponents while ETSU has allowed 67 PPG on 41% shooting during the same span. With the season on the line for both in this do or die game, we expect the defenses to play as hard as they have all season. Play the UNDER in this game. |
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03-08-19 | Illinois State v. Drake UNDER 140.5 | Top | 62-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 140.5 Points - Illinois State vs Drake, Friday at 7 PM ET These two have played twice this year with neither game coming near the posted total. In their first match up the total was posted at 143 and they combined to score 124 points. Their more recent game was on February 24th and the oddsmakers dropped that total to 141 and they combined to score just 127. They weren’t terrible offensively as the two teams combined to shoot 45% over those 2 outings yet they still were very low scoring. That’s two meetings that went under the total by 33 combined points and it wasn’t as if both teams shot terribly. Now they’ve dropped this total to 139 but that’s not nearly a big enough adjustment in our opinion. Unless both surprisingly go off and hit 50%+ we don’t see this getting close to 1140. These two know each other very well and their third meeting should be no different than their first two meetings. They are playing at a neutral site in St Louis that has not been conducive to scoring. Last night the two MVC tourney games here totaled 132 and 125 points. Only one team out of four in yesterday’s play in games shot better than 40%. Drake will be playing their first game at this venue and Illinois State shot just 36% here last night vs an Evansville team that ranks 9th in the MVC in defensive efficiency. Long term the MVC tourney UNDERS have been big time money makers. Since 2005 the UNDERS in MVC tourney games here in St Louis are 85-44 (66%)! |
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03-02-19 | Northern Kentucky v. Green Bay UNDER 157 | Top | 86-82 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 157 Points - Northern Kentucky @ UW Green Bay, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET UW Green Bay has really transformed from a run & gun high scoring, poor defensive team, into a team that doesn’t score as many points as it did earlier in the year and one that plays MUCH better defense than they had been. Despite that, the oddsmakers continue to set high totals on this team. Keep in mind UWGB has now gone UNDER the total in 5 straight games and 6 of their last 7. Not only have they been going UNDER the total, they have been close with their last 5 games staying under the number by a combined 120 points or 24 points per game! Each of their last 5 games have stayed under by at least 10 points. The Phoenix allowed a whopping 88 PPG through their first 9 Horizon League games. Since then they have given up only 71 PPG over their last 8 games, an improvement of 17 PPG. Offensively they have scored only 69 PPG over their last 5. On Saturday they face an NKU defense that ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency and 1st at defending the 3 point line. NKU is 1st in the Horizon in offensive efficiency, however they might be without their leading scorer Drew McDonald in this one as he sat out Thursday’s game @ Milwaukee with back spasms. The Norse only scored 65 points in that game and they held the Panthers to just 55 points. With a first round home game in the Horizon and a top 2 seed already locked up, we’d be surprised if McDonald played here. Even if he does, this total is set too high. NKU is very similar to Wright State (the top 2 teams in the league) who played @ UWGB on Thursday. Wright is #1 in defensive efficiency and #2 in offensive efficiency while NKU is #1 in offensive efficiency and #2 in defensive efficiency. They both play at a similar pace. Thursday game here ended with a final score of UWGB 70 – Wright State 67. We see a similar type game here with it staying well UNDER this hefty total. |
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02-20-19 | Northwestern v. Ohio State UNDER 128 | Top | 49-63 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 128 Points - Northwestern @ Ohio State, Wed at 8:30 PM ET These are two of the least efficient offensive teams in the Big Ten (OSU 11th & Northwestern 14th) and both are currently in big time slumps on that end of the court. Northwestern has made only 37% of their shots over the last 5 games and they are averaging just 57 PPG during that span. They rank dead last in the Big Ten (conference games) averaging just 60 PPG. Over their last 6 games the Cats have topped 56 points just once and that was vs an up tempo Iowa team (2nd in Big Ten tempo) that is poor defensively (14th in conference in defensive efficiency). Ohio State hasn’t been much better. Over their last 5 games the Buckeyes have made only 42% of their shots and they are averaging 61 PPG. They have been held to 56 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. OSU ranks 12th in the Big Ten (conference games) in scoring putting up only 64 PPG. Defensively these teams are far ahead of the offenses. They both rank in the top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency and in the top 35 nationally in eFG% defense. Both teams are slower paced (257th and 298th nationally) and neither gets to the FT line very often (12th and 10th in the Big Ten in FTA/FGA). Ohio State may also be a bit undermanned tonight as starting guard CJ Jackson (13 PPG) injured his ankle over the weekend @ Michigan State and is not at 100%. He may play, but it looks like he will be limited if he does. We don’t see either of these struggling offenses getting back on track tonight and we envision a defensive grinder. This total opened at 124 and has pushed up to 128 and we agree with the oddsmakers number. The value is on the UNDER here and we’ll play it. |
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02-14-19 | Illinois v. Ohio State OVER 144 | Top | 63-56 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 144 Points - Illinois @ Ohio State, Thursday at 7 PM ET These two met earlier this year and with the total set at 143.5, the final score was OSU 77-67 pushing the game OVER by a half point and landing exactly on the set total for this evening. However, neither team was special on offense in that game as the two combined to make just 39% of their shots. From 3-point land the combined to make only 12 of 36 for just 33%. So how did they get to 144 points in that game? Free throws were a big factor as they combined to make 46 from the charity stripe. We don’t expect that to change much tonight as these teams send their opponents to the FT line more than any other in the Big Ten (Illinois ranks 14th in the league and OSU ranks 13th). However we do expect the other offensive aspects of the game (shooting) to improve from their last meeting. The Illini are playing very well right now, especially on offense. They are the fastest paced team in the Big Ten and they have scored 99, 79, 78, 75, and 71 points their last 5 games. That includes 79 in a win vs Michigan State and 78 in a win over Maryland, the 3rd and 4th most efficient defenses in the Big Ten. While the Illinois offense is playing the best they have all season, the defense remains an issue. They put pressure on opponents but they foul A LOT as we mentioned above. They rank 14th in the Big Ten in eFG% defense, 10th in 3-point FG% defense, 13th in 2-point FG% defense, and 11th in defensive efficiency. They allow 76 PPG in conference play which is tied with Iowa for worst in the Big Ten. OSU is off an offensive clunker @ Indiana on Sunday a game in which they won 55-52. The Bucks put up only 0.93 points per possession in that game while holding Indiana to a terrible 0.88 PPP. They should look much better tonight at home where they shoot 48% and average 77 PPG and they are facing the worst defensive team in the conference. Where this total is set the oddsmakers are expecting a 76-68 type win for OSU. We think both teams eclipse those projected numbers and this goes OVER. |
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02-06-19 | Maryland v. Nebraska UNDER 135.5 | Top | 60-45 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 135.5 Points - Maryland @ Nebraska, Wed at 7:00 PM ET These two met in early January and the total was set at 137 and the final score was Maryland 74, Nebraska 72 which eclipsed that total. Despite that result, this total is set lower than their first meeting which is very interesting and we agree with the move. We expect a much lower scoring game this time around. In the first meeting both teams shot fairly well as they combined to make 47% of their shots and 44% of the 3-pointers. Neither team averages those shooting numbers on the season and the large difference came from deep where Maryland shoots 37% on the season and Nebraska just 34%. In that game the Terps averaged 1.14 points per possession while Nebraska came in at 1.11. The Huskers offensive numbers have fallen off drastically over the last few weeks as they have not put up 1.00 points per possession in any of their last 5 games. They lost a key scorer Isaac Copeland 2 games ago and they have scored 51 vs Wisconsin & 64 vs Illinois (the least efficient defense in the Big Ten) their last 2 games. Now facing a Maryland defense that ranks 4th in the Big Ten (conference play) allowing opponents to shoot just 41% and also holding opponents to 32% from deep will be a problem for the Huskers. The Terps also rank 3rd in the Big Ten allowing only 65 PPG. Despite their struggling offense, Nebraska does get it done on the other end of the court ranking 5th in the league in FG% defense with just 2 of their last 7 opponents topping 70 points. The Terps offense has gone into a bit of a lull as well averaging just 65 PPG over their last 5. Neither teams plays at a fast pace with each ranking in the 250 range in adjusted tempo so we don’t expect a large number of possessions in this one. This one turns into a grinder and goes UNDER the total. |
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02-04-19 | Louisville v. Virginia Tech OVER 136 | Top | 72-64 | Push | 0 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 136 Points - Louisville @ Virginia Tech, Monday at 7:00 PM ET - On ESPN After the game Va Tech played on Saturday, we had a feeling this total would be set too low and then bet under by many anyway. That’s exactly what happened. This total should be 140 according to our power ratings yet it opened 137. It has since been bet down to 136 as of this writing early on Monday afternoon. I’m sure you are all aware of the Va Tech – NC State game over the weekend. If not, the final score was Va Tech 47, NC State 24. Yes that was the final score. The Wolfpack made just 9 field goals for the game in 54 shot attempts! From beyond the arc they were 2 of 28. The Hokies weren’t a whole lot better making 16 of their 45 shots. The two teams combined to make only 12 FT’s. It was just one of those games more so than a great defensive performance. The fact is VT hasn’t been a great defense in ACC play. Even with Saturday’s performance they rank 8th in defensive efficiency and 11th in eFG% defense. They actually have better numbers offensively in ACC play ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency and #1 in eFG%. They have scored at least 77 points in 6 of their 9 ACC games. If you throw out last Saturday’s result, which was an aberration, VT’s total points scored in their other ACC games was 185, 158, 152, 147, 143, 134, and 101. That last number (101) was vs Georgia Tech who has a very solid defense but the worst offense in the ACC (15th in the conference in offensive efficiency). Now Tech will face a Louisville offense that ranks 2nd in the ACC in offensive efficiency. The Cards are averaging 77 PPG on the road this year and they’ve scored at least 79 points in 7 of their 9 ACC games. This line, as we mentioned, has been over adjusted too much. Last year these two met twice and the totals were set at 152 & 148.5. This has been a higher scoring with 4 of the last 5 meetings going OVER as they combined to score 184, 180, 174, 143, and 141 in their 5 meetings since they began their ACC series. As you can see, any of those outputs go over this number fairly easily. We realize VT’s Robinson is out tonight but we still think this is set too low. Take the OVER. |
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01-25-19 | Butler v. Creighton OVER 152.5 | Top | 61-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 152.5 Points - Butler @ Creighton, Friday at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One These two met a few weeks ago and Butler topped the Blue Jays 84-69. That game totaled 153 points which is the exactly where this total is set. This one opened 156 and has dropped most likely due to the results of the first game. Now that it’s down in the 153 range will jump on the OVER. These two teams are very adept at shooting the 3-pointer with Creighton ranking 4th nationally making 42% of their shots from deep while Butler is no slouch hitting 37% which is 46th nationally. Not only do they both shoot it well, they both shoot the 3 a lot with Creighton ranking 7th in point distribution from deep while Butler ranks 54th. As we mentioned above, these two teams got to this total (153) a few weeks ago however they shot very poor from 3-point land in that game combining to make just 18 of 57 attempts (31%). You see where we’re going here. Even though neither team came near the percentage they normally shoot from beyond the arc, they still made it to tonight’s posted total. Neither team defends the arc very well with Creighton ranking 304th in 3-point percentage allowed and the Bulldogs rank 173rd in that category. We have to assume they will shoot much better tonight which should push this OVER the total. When Creighton plays at home, they shoot it so well (51% overall & 46% from deep) that teams have to score points to keep up because it’s very difficult to slow them down. They Jays average 85 PPG at home and in their two Big East home tilts they’ve combined to score 168 vs Villanova and 210 in OT (170 in regulation) vs Marquette. In their 10 home games overall this season they Blue Jays have averaged 161 combined points. Based on the spread, the oddsmakers expect a final score of 78-75 in this game. However, the winning team in Creighton games has reached at least 80 points in 15 of their last 16 games. They only game the winner didn’t reach 80 was when the faced Providence and that final was 79-68. We have to think, based on those numbers, that at least one of these teams get to 80 points and we wouldn’t be shocked if both topped 80. Butler has reached at least 151 combined points in 7 of their 8 Big East games so it’s not all Creighton here. We look for a high scoring game that goes OVER tonight. |
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01-20-19 | South Dakota v. Nebraska-Omaha OVER 149 | Top | 68-75 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 149 Points - South Dakota @ Nebraska Omaha, Sunday at 7:00 PM ET UNO is the most efficient offense in the Summit League and they play fast. The Mavs have scored at least 80 points in every league game and they’ve topped 90 in three of their five Summit League games. Going back even further Nebraska Omaha has scored at least 80 in 8 straight games. They are facing a South Dakota defense that has allowed at least 70 points in all 5 of their Summit League games. Now they face the #1 offense in the league and a team that shoots nearly 52% from the field at home. We expect UNO to put up at least 80 here. Defensively, Omaha is bad. While they can score points, they also can’t stop anybody. They rank 323rd nationally in defensive efficiency and 330th in eFG% defense. The Mavs allow 80 PPG on the season. In conference play they are allowing 82 PPG and 4 of the 5 offenses they’ve faced rank 239th or lower in efficiency. In other words, everyone is scoring on Omaha. This total is set at 149 which means the oddsmakers are looking for a 77-72 type final score. We just don’t see it being that low scoring. As we stated we expect Omaha to get to at least 80 and we wouldn’t be surprised if South Dakota pushed upper 70’s to low 80’s here. This is the lowest total set in this series in the last 10 meetings. These to have topped 150 in 6 of their last 7 meetings. Another high scoring game here and we take the OVER here. |
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01-17-19 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Green Bay OVER 164.5 | Top | 76-70 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 164.5 Points - IUPUI @ UW Green Bay, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET UWGB is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation (8th nationally in tempo) and IUPUI loves to play fast as well (87th in tempo). The Phoenix average 80 possessions per game (5th nationally) and IUPUI averages 74 possessions per game. While that comes out to 154 possessions, those numbers include games vs slower paced teams so we expect more than 154 possessions in this game. If those numbers turn out to be accurate, we’ll need these teams to average just a bit more than 1.00 point per possession which we expect them to easily accomplish. Both have poor defenses with UWGB ranking 295th in adjusted defensive efficiency and IUPUI comes in at 212th in that category. They also both tend to send their opponents to the line a lot which rolls up free points with the clock stopped. In UWGB games, at least one team has reached 90 or more points in 5 straight games. The Phoenix defense has allowed 91 PPG in their 5 Horizon League contests. Even UW Milwaukee, who ranks 253rd nationally in scoring put up 82 points on Green Bay. On a points per possession basis, the GB defense has allowed 1.23, 1.28, 1.14, 1.18, and 1.14 PPP in their Horizon League games. On offense they’ve averaged 88 PPG in those 5 conference games and put up well over 1.00 PPP in each. As we stated above IUPUI’s defense isn’t much better as they’ve allowed 77 PPG in their 5 league games. Offensively they’ve been a bit more up and down, however when the Panthers play fast paced teams with below average defenses they have put points on the board. In this one, IUPUI will absolutely have to score points to keep and and they will against a bad GB defense. These two teams have combined to play 32 games and 22 of those have gone OVER the total. With this spread sitting at GB -3 and a total of 164.5 or 165, the oddsmakers are expecting a final score of 84-81 or somewhere in that vicinity. We expect at least one of these teams to push 90 or break that barrier with the other at least in the 80’s OVER is the wager here. |
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01-14-19 | Wisconsin v. Maryland OVER 130.5 | Top | 60-64 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Over 130.5 Points - Wisconsin @ Maryland, Monday at 8:30 PM ET - On Fox Sports One This total opened 137 and we were considering a small play on the OVER at that point. Now that it has dropped all the way to 131 as of this writing, we’ll definitely jump on this one and play the OVER. These are two solid shooting teams who are very efficient offensively. The Badgers shoot 49% on the season while Maryland has hit 48% of their shots. Both rank in the top 27 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. Many think of Wisconsin as a low scoring team but that’s really not the case. They are averaging 75 PPG on the season while the Terps average 77 PPG. Sure they’ve both had a few stinkers offensively but for the most part these two teams have put points on the board. Maryland has put up at least 74 points in 7 straight games. They’ve been held under 70 points in just 3 of their 17 games this season and they are the only team to post 70+ this year vs Virginia who ranks 1st in the nation in scoring defense. The Badgers have played 16 games and been held under 70 points just 5 times. Both defenses have had some very good performances, however when they’ve faced good offenses they have given up points. Wisconsin has played 6 top 50 offenses (adjusted efficiency) and they are allowing 70 PPG on those contests. Maryland has also faced 6 top 50 offenses and they are giving up 71 PPG in those games. Where this line and total sit, the expected outcome is right around 67-64 in favor of Maryland. We think at least one of these two teams and possibly both get to 70 which will be enough to push this game OVER the total. |
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01-02-19 | Texas v. Kansas State UNDER 130 | Top | 67-47 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Under 130 Points - Texas @ Kansas State, Wed at 9:00 PM ET on ESPNU We had our eye on the UNDER in this one before the spreads were released hoping it would be higher than what we thought it should be. The total opened 123.5 and our numbers said 126 so while we did like it, the value wasn’t quite there. Now the total has risen all the way to 130 and it’s time for us to jump on the UNDER. These are two great defensive teams with KSU ranking 2nd nationally in adjusted efficiency defense and Texas ranks 10th in the same category. The Wildcat defense has not allowed an opponent to reach 60 points in 5 straight games dating back to December 1st. Nine of their 12 opponents have been held to 59 points or less. Texas has allowed just 3 of their 12 opponents to top 70 points (in regulation) so we fully expect this game to be played in the 60’s or lower. The offenses will have a lot to do with that as well as neither is very good. Both rank below 100th in adjusted efficiency offense and both rank below 220th in eFG%. Neither team shoots the 3 well with KSU hitting 31% (270th nationally) and Texas making just 32% (250th nationally). Neither team gets to the line very often and when they do they struggle with the Cats making just 63% and the Horns hitting 66%. These two Big 12 rivals have combined to play 24 games so far this year with only 7 going OVER the total. KSU is now 23-9-1 to the UNDER their last 33 games. Not only that, this has been a very low scoring series with 10 of the last 11 meetings going UNDER the total. The average total score the last 10 meetings in this series is just 124 and only ONE of the last 10 games has topped 133 points. As we said, now that this total is in the 130 point range (some 129.5’s and some 130.5’s) we like the value with the UNDER. |
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12-15-18 | College of Charleston v. VCU UNDER 128.5 | Top | 83-79 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Under 128.5 points - College of Charleston @ VCU, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET We used the UNDER when VCU traveled to Texas recently and cashed easily on that game. We expect to do just that again here. The Rams are a fabulous defensive team ranking 8th nationally in defensive efficiency and 2nd nationally in defensive eFG%. They have held 6 of their 10 opponents under 60 points and two others reached just 61 points. As good as they are defensively, VCU is a poor offensive team. They are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation (28%) and their eFG% ranks 315th nationally. They win with defense and that’s how they play. Much of their offense comes off turnovers, however Charleston won’t let that happen as they turn the ball over just 14% of the time ranking them 9th nationally. As bad as VCU is from deep, C of C is worse making only 27% of their 3’s ranking them 323rd nationally. We won’t get much scoring from deep here to say the least. As we stated in our write up on the VCU-Texas Under, many feel the Rams are a fast paced team because they press but that is not the case. The rank 190th in adjusted tempo. Charleston loves to play slow as they are 330th in adjusted tempo (out of 351 teams). A slow paced game, with two below average offenses, and solid defenses leads to a low scoring affair. UNDER is the play. |
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12-14-18 | Green Bay v. Creighton OVER 168.5 | Top | 65-86 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Over 168.5 Points - UW Green Bay @ Creighton, Friday at 9:00 PM ET These are two of the faster paced teams in the country and neither play defense at a high level. There won’t be much in the way of half court offense in this game. UWGB ranks 9th nationally in adjusted tempo while Creighton ranks 85th. Remember those numbers are based on the tempo they’ve played vs their opponents and many of their opponents like to play slow. Creighton has already played 7 opponents who rank below 200 in adjusted tempo so those teams are trying to slow the game down when the play the Blue Jays. UWGB has played 3 opponents ranked 175 or lower in adjusted tempo. The point being, the numbers, as fast as they are, tend to be skewed as they do play slower paced teams. With both wanting up tempo tonight, this game should have a ton of possessions. Defensively these teams are not very good. Creighton ranks 283rd nationally in eFG% defense while UWGB ranks 223rd in the same category. Offensively, the Jays rank #1 nationally in eFG% and the Phoenix aren’t bad in that area hitting over 51%. Creighton just played Nebraska over the weekend, a team that is great defensively and is slow paced and they totaled 169 points. The Blue Jays have scored at least 87 points in 5 of their last 6 games. UWGB has scored at least 82 points in 7 of their 10 games. The Phoenix have played 2 teams this year ranked in the top 100 in adjusted tempo and those games totaled 192 and 175 points. Creighton has played only one team ranked in the top 100 in adjusted tempo and that game totaled 195. This one should be a shootout and we’re on the OVER. |
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12-08-18 | Wisconsin v. Marquette OVER 137 | Top | 69-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Over 137 Points - Wisconsin @ Marquette, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET Being in Wisconsin we follow these two teams very closely and feel we are getting some value on the OVER here. Marquette just played Kansas State a week ago and that total was set the same as this one. Based on the numbers, it shouldn’t be the same, this one should be higher. That’s because Wisconsin and KSU are very similar defensively (13th and 5th in defensive efficiency respectively) but the Badgers are far better than the Cats in almost every category. KSU & Marquette scored 154 total points in that game and we expect these two to reach into the 140’s at minimum. Last year’s total in this game was set at 141 and Wisconsin was nowhere near as good offensively and the two totaled 145 points. While Wisconsin still plays slow, they push a bit more than past years and their offensive production is being overlooked here. They rank 17th nationally in offensive efficiency and they are the 12th best 3-point shooting team in the nation. And that’s facing a tough schedule having already played 7 top 100 teams (16th most difficult strength of schedule thus far). Marquette’s defense looks improved but they have allowed 70+ points vs every top 100 team they’ve played this year (4). The offense is good just as it was last year with solid shooters all over the court. The only 2 teams to hold Marquette to less than 70 points were Kansas (4th in defensive efficiency) who held them to 68 and UMBC in the first game of the year which was a blowout so Marquette called off the dogs (Won 67-42). We have 2 very good shooting teams in this game and while the defenses will have their moments, we expect both to push into the 70’s in this game so the OVER is the play. |
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12-05-18 | VCU v. Texas UNDER 137 | Top | 54-53 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Under 137 Points - VCU @ Texas, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET VCU likes to pressure full court but they are not an overly fast paced team as most tend to think. They rank 143rd nationally in adjusted tempo and Texas ranks 152nd in the same category. So both are near the middle of the pack in college basketball when it comes to tempo. Where both are near the best in college basketball is on the defensive end of the court. The Horns rank 12th nationally in defensive efficiency and VCU ranks 19th. The Rams also rank 3rd nationally in eFG% defense and also 3rd nationally at defending the 3-point line. We expect both teams to struggle from deep in this one as neither shoots the 3 well (30% for Texas & 29% for VCU). Not only do these teams struggle to score from deep, neither are very good shooting teams in general with both sitting at 47% for their eFG% which ranks them around 250th nationally. Both have problems at the FT line as well with each hitting only 65% of their freebies. Only one team this season has topped 61 points vs VCU in regulation and that was St Johns who’s one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and 26th nationally in offensive efficiency. Only two teams have topped 70 points this year on Texas and those were Michigan State & North Carolina who are ranked 4th & 6th nationally in offensive efficiency which is far superior offensively to VCU (ranked 239th in offensive efficiency). Both defense are far ahead of the offenses in this one and while this total opened 133, it has jumped to 137 which gives us some value on the UNDER. |
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11-25-18 | Memphis v. College of Charleston UNDER 138.5 | Top | 75-78 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON - Under 138.5 Points - Memphis vs College of Charleston, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET Two bad shooting teams lead to an UNDER play in this game. Memphis ranks 275th nationally in eFG% (46.6%) while Charleston ranks 221st (49%). Worse yet, these are two of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation which will make it very tough to get to this total. The Tigers make just 26% of their 3’s (332nd nationally) and C of C makes only 24% (339th nationally). Memphis likes to play fast if they can however the Cougars are one of the slowest paced teams in the nation and when that is the case the slow team usually gets the tempo they want. Since their first two games vs inferior opponents, Charleston has cashed 4 straight UNDERS and they have not topped 128 points in any of those games. Memphis has had a few higher scoring games this year, however those we versus teams that shoot the ball very well (LSU & Oklahoma State) and like to play fast as well. The Tigers most recent game on Friday against Canisius was 71-63 and we look for similar result here. This game is on a neutral site in Orlando and each team will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here which won’t help their shooting woes. Take the UNDER here. |
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04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 145 Points - Michigan vs Villanova, Monday at 9:20 PM ET We’re going contrarian here and taking the UNDER in this game. More than 70% of the bets in this game have come in on the over and that’s understandable after everyone watched Villanova shoot the lights out on Saturday in route to putting up 95 points on Kansas. The last thing bettors see usually sticks with them and that affects what they play moving forward. Thus, why many (and most) will see this as a high scoring game. The Cats made 55% of their shots in that game a made a record breaking 18 three pointers vs a KU defense that was pretty average for most of the season. That game played out perfectly for the over with Nova getting out to a hot start which pushed them to a double digit lead. Kansas likes to play fast anyway and when down by 10+, they did just that which played into Villanova’s hands as well. Each team attempted 62+ shots and 61 combined 3 point attempts! We don’t see any way Nova comes close to shooting like that tonight vs a Michigan defense that now ranks 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency. After a rough first half on Saturday, the Wolverine defense contested 24 of Loyola’s 27 shots in the 2nd half limiting the Ramblers to just 28 points. IN their previous game, Michigan’s defense contested 90% of FSU’s shots for the game. Their defense has now limited 12 of their last 13 opponents to less than 1.00 point per possession. Now we realize that will be tough to do vs this Villanova offense, however the point is the Wildcats will have a MUCH tougher time scoring in this game. On top of that, Michigan knows their best shot in this game is to play very slow (as they normally do – 324th nationally in tempo) and shorten this game. Unless they get way behind early, we believe that’s just what Michigan will do. A slow game with fewer possessions than normal. Neither team gets to the line very often and neither teams fouls very often so we don’t expect much from the FT line unless there is some “scrambling” late in the game with fouls. Offensively Michigan hasn’t played very well in this tourney believe it or not. It’s been their defense that has gotten them to this point. With the exception of their game vs Texas A&M, the Wolverines have shot 31% or less from 3 point land in their other 4 NCAA tourney games. They have scored 58, 61, 64, and 69 points in those other four games. Nova’s defense ranks 14th nationally in defensive efficiency so don’t look for Michigan to “get well” offensively here. The one team Villanova played in this tourney that is somewhat similar to Michigan (great defense, slow pace) is Texas Tech. In that game the Cats won 70-58 so the two combined for only 128 points. While we expect a few more points scored tonight, we think this one stays somewhere in the 130’s and we’ll take the UNDER. |
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ASA NCAA-B Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-18-21 | Baylor v. Oregon UNDER 135.5 | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
12-18-21 | Providence v. Connecticut UNDER 135.5 | 57-53 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
12-13-21 | Rhode Island v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 131 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
12-04-21 | Youngstown State v. Green Bay UNDER 133.5 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
12-02-21 | Portland State v. Idaho State UNDER 130.5 | Top | 63-55 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
12-01-21 | Louisville v. Michigan State UNDER 135.5 | Top | 64-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
11-27-21 | BYU v. Utah UNDER 139 | Top | 75-64 | Push | 0 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
11-24-21 | VCU v. Syracuse UNDER 130.5 | Top | 67-55 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 148.5 | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 136.5 | Top | 84-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
03-25-21 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky UNDER 136.5 | Top | 72-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
03-24-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Pepperdine OVER 151.5 | Top | 61-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Maryland v. Connecticut UNDER 130 | Top | 63-54 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Drake v. USC UNDER 135.5 | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
03-19-21 | Oral Roberts v. Ohio State OVER 156 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State UNDER 135 | Top | 86-80 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
03-17-21 | Western Kentucky v. St. Mary's UNDER 125 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 37 m | Show |
03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 150.5 | Top | 88-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Ohio State v. Purdue UNDER 143 | Top | 87-78 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
03-11-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas OVER 134.5 | Top | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
03-05-21 | Evansville v. Indiana State UNDER 135 | Top | 43-53 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
03-03-21 | St. Joe's v. La Salle OVER 151 | Top | 72-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
02-25-21 | Ohio State v. Michigan State OVER 145 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
02-20-21 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 127.5 | 66-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
02-20-21 | Seton Hall v. Georgetown OVER 141 | Top | 75-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
02-18-21 | Rutgers v. Michigan UNDER 136.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
02-18-21 | Jacksonville State v. Belmont OVER 147.5 | 59-63 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
02-16-21 | Xavier v. St. John's OVER 155 | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
02-16-21 | Nebraska v. Maryland UNDER 135.5 | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
02-15-21 | East Tennessee State v. Chattanooga UNDER 134 | Top | 51-53 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
02-14-21 | Minnesota v. Maryland UNDER 138 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
02-03-21 | Kentucky v. Missouri UNDER 137 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
02-01-21 | Murray State v. SE Missouri State UNDER 132.5 | Top | 77-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
01-31-21 | Northern Iowa v. Southern Illinois OVER 138.5 | Top | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
01-30-21 | Minnesota v. Purdue UNDER 141 | Top | 62-81 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
01-30-21 | Ole Miss v. Georgia UNDER 142 | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
01-26-21 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee UNDER 131 | Top | 53-56 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
01-26-21 | Western Michigan v. Ohio OVER 141 | Top | 58-81 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
01-20-21 | VCU v. St Bonaventure UNDER 140.5 | Top | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
01-17-21 | Indiana State v. Illinois State OVER 140.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
01-10-21 | Minnesota v. Iowa UNDER 164 | Top | 71-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
01-09-21 | Virginia v. Boston College OVER 131 | Top | 61-49 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
01-06-21 | Rhode Island v. Richmond UNDER 145 | Top | 73-80 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
01-02-21 | Oral Roberts v. Nebraska-Omaha OVER 152.5 | Top | 95-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
12-31-20 | Nevada v. New Mexico OVER 147 | Top | 68-54 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
12-30-20 | Murray State v. Belmont OVER 145.5 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
12-29-20 | Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 147.5 | Top | 87-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
12-26-20 | Oakland v. Detroit UNDER 155 | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
12-21-20 | Texas State v. Northern Arizona UNDER 132.5 | Top | 70-65 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
12-17-20 | San Francisco v. Oregon OVER 143 | Top | 64-74 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
12-16-20 | South Florida v. Cincinnati UNDER 132 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
12-15-20 | Minnesota v. Illinois OVER 146.5 | Top | 65-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
12-13-20 | Wright State v. Bowling Green OVER 150.5 | Top | 85-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
12-12-20 | Wofford v. South Florida UNDER 134.5 | Top | 56-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
12-11-20 | Niagara v. St. Peter's UNDER 135 | Top | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
12-10-20 | San Diego State v. Arizona State OVER 142 | Top | 80-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
12-09-20 | Northern Iowa v. Richmond OVER 148.5 | Top | 68-78 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
12-08-20 | Austin Peay v. Murray State UNDER 147 | Top | 57-87 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
12-08-20 | Northern Kentucky v. Dayton UNDER 137.5 | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
12-05-20 | Samford v. Belmont OVER 157 | Top | 96-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
12-02-20 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas OVER 148 | Top | 60-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
12-01-20 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Creighton OVER 149 | Top | 67-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
11-30-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Duquesne UNDER 144.5 | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
03-11-20 | Georgia Southern v. Georgia State OVER 152 | 81-62 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
03-11-20 | Fordham v. George Washington UNDER 122.5 | Top | 72-52 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
02-26-20 | Rutgers v. Penn State OVER 137.5 | 64-65 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
01-27-20 | Wisconsin v. Iowa OVER 135 | Top | 62-68 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
12-22-19 | South Carolina v. Virginia UNDER 112 | Top | 70-59 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
12-17-19 | Purdue v. Ohio UNDER 128 | 69-51 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
11-21-19 | Tennessee Tech v. Winthrop UNDER 129 | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
11-19-19 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Kent State OVER 149.5 | Top | 68-75 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
03-29-19 | Virginia Tech v. Duke UNDER 143 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
03-27-19 | Coastal Carolina v. DePaul OVER 163 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
03-26-19 | Florida International v. Green Bay OVER 176.5 | Top | 68-98 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
03-22-19 | Iona v. North Carolina UNDER 166.5 | Top | 73-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
03-22-19 | Georgia State v. Houston UNDER 142 | Top | 55-84 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
03-21-19 | St. Mary's v. Villanova UNDER 131 | Top | 57-61 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
03-21-19 | Murray State v. Marquette OVER 149 | Top | 83-64 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
03-21-19 | Bradley v. Michigan State UNDER 134 | Top | 65-76 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
03-15-19 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin UNDER 127 | Top | 62-66 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
03-14-19 | Nebraska v. Maryland UNDER 135 | Top | 69-61 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
03-13-19 | Northwestern v. Illinois UNDER 136 | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
03-10-19 | East Tennessee State v. Wofford UNDER 141 | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
03-08-19 | Illinois State v. Drake UNDER 140.5 | Top | 62-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
03-02-19 | Northern Kentucky v. Green Bay UNDER 157 | Top | 86-82 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
02-20-19 | Northwestern v. Ohio State UNDER 128 | Top | 49-63 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
02-14-19 | Illinois v. Ohio State OVER 144 | Top | 63-56 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
02-06-19 | Maryland v. Nebraska UNDER 135.5 | Top | 60-45 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
02-04-19 | Louisville v. Virginia Tech OVER 136 | Top | 72-64 | Push | 0 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
01-25-19 | Butler v. Creighton OVER 152.5 | Top | 61-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
01-20-19 | South Dakota v. Nebraska-Omaha OVER 149 | Top | 68-75 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
01-17-19 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Green Bay OVER 164.5 | Top | 76-70 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
01-14-19 | Wisconsin v. Maryland OVER 130.5 | Top | 60-64 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
01-02-19 | Texas v. Kansas State UNDER 130 | Top | 67-47 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
12-15-18 | College of Charleston v. VCU UNDER 128.5 | Top | 83-79 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
12-14-18 | Green Bay v. Creighton OVER 168.5 | Top | 65-86 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
12-08-18 | Wisconsin v. Marquette OVER 137 | Top | 69-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
12-05-18 | VCU v. Texas UNDER 137 | Top | 54-53 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
11-25-18 | Memphis v. College of Charleston UNDER 138.5 | Top | 75-78 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |