Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-25-18 | Canucks v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* Over Canucks/Stars (7:05 ET): Dallas has picked the absolute worst time to play its worst stretch of hockey this season. A seven-game losing skid, four of those coming by one goal, has all but sunk their playoff hopes. With St. Louis now having won five straight, the Stars are now looking at a five-point deficit to make it as a Wild Card. That's not insurmountable, but they'd have to not only jump the Blues, but whomever finishes fourth in the Pacific as well. As for tonight's opponent, well, at no point this season have they been thinking playoffs. Vancouver currently sits tied w/ Arizona for the fewest points in the Western Conference (61) and has been every bit as bad as was projected at the start of the season. I've written previously about the "transformation" of the Stars this season into a team that no longer relies on having to "outscore" its opponents. Two years ago, they won the Central Division despite being below average in the goals allowed side of the ledger. Last season saw them tumble down the standings as they ranked near the very bottom in the league in goals allowed (plus they were just 16th in goals scored). During that division winning campaign, they were - by far and away - #1 in the league in scoring. Fast forward to the present and they're just 20th. But they've remained in contention thanks to being a top 10 team in goals allowed, a huge improvement from last season. However, this losing streak has brought back the "Stars of old." They've given up at least three goals in all seven losses and 27 total. They did get off 42 shots vs. Boston Friday night, but failed to take advantage of four power play opportunities. It's been a pretty brutal schedule that has had Dallas facing some of the league's best teams, but still, you would have expected them to win one or two of these games. Tonight likely gets them back into the win column, but expect the game to be high-scoring. The winner of Vancouver's last four games has scored at least four goals every time. The Canucks are also mired in an awful stretch presently as they've dropped seven of eight. Expect both teams' struggles to keep the opponent from finding the back of the net to be the prevailing theme here. 10* Over Canucks/Stars |
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03-23-18 | Devils v. Penguins UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
10* Under Devils/Penguins (7:05 ET): So, it appears as if the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference is beginning to take shape. We know Tampa Bay and Boston are in (both clinched) and Toronto, Washington, Pittsburgh, Philly have all been in position most of the year. Columbus is the hottest team in the league right now (won 10 straight!), so it looks like they'll do no worse than a Wild Card. The leaves one more spot and it will go to either New Jersey or Florida. The Devils come into Friday w/ a one-point advantage, something that was maintained w/ the Panthers losing yday (shutout 4-0 by C-bus). Needless to say, tonight's game is huge for New Jersey. But I like the total more than either side in this one. I'm still not used to seeing a "6" attached to a Devils' game for a total. For years, this was among the lowest-scoring teams in the league. But a plodding style of play has given way to a more wide-open approach this season and the results speak for themselves. Like Colorado in the Western Conference, the Devils are hoping to make the playoffs just one season removed from a last place finish. Really, both teams' renaissance has been overshadowed due to the unprecedented success of the expansion team in Vegas. For the record, New Jersey is 15th in goals per game. That may not sound great, but they were 28th a season ago. They also gave up six goals in their last game (loss to San Jose). However, I'm expecting a much different style of game in what is the finale of a brutal six-game road trip for the Devils, a score akin to teams of years' past. We know Pittsburgh can score too; they are 6th in the league in goals per game and have the top power play (26.2%). But sometimes that offense is too dependent on them having the man advantage. New Jersey has a good enough penalty killing unit (10th) to stymie the Pens on the PP. Note the Devils are 2-0 vs. the Pens this season, both wins coming in February. They've held them to just three goals total, none coming from the power play (0 for 3). In one of the games, Pittsburgh managed only 16 shots on goal. But it has been the Penguins that have done a good job at limiting the # of opponents' shot attempts lately and the Devils come in averaging just 25.6 per over the L5 games. 10* Under Devils/Penguins |
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03-22-18 | Kings v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
10* Under Kings/Avalanche (9:05 ET): Stop me when you've heard me say this before - "this is a big game in the Western Conference playoff race." I think it's fair to say that it's now down to 10 teams competing for the eight spots (Calgary is waning and I no longer consider them as having any realistic shot). We know Nashville is in and while neither have officially "clinched," I consider Winnipeg and Vegas as locks too. That leaves seven teams and five spots. As things stand right now, both the Kings and Avalanche would be Wild Cards in the playoffs (both in fourth place in their respective divisions). But with those seven teams only separated by seven points, a lot can change between now and the end of the regular season. I expect the proverbial "playoff-like mentality" for this one. The Kings are second in the league in fewest goals allowed, but Denver is a hard place to win. Thus, I'm calling for an Under tonight. Similar deal to last night's 10* on the Under in Anaheim-Calgary. With so much on the line, I do not expect any kind of wide open game. Note that we have two of the top three penalty killing units in the league here (Kings #1), so the power play should be a non-factor tonight. Neither team is by any means dominant w/ the man advantage anyways. The Avs do have three PP goals in their last two games, but I would expect nothing of the sort here. The Avs are coming off B2B wins where they scored five goals in each game. Keeping that scoring streak going against a team like the Kings isn't easy to do. Also, I like how the Avs have allowed just one goal in each of their last three victories. The Kings got off only 17 shots on goal in an OVERTIME loss to Winnipeg on Tuesday, so we shouldn't expect much out of their offense here either. We should also have two strong netminders between the pipes tonight. For the Kings, Jonathan Quick needs no introduction and has a .937 save percentage his L4 starts. For the Avs, Semyon Varlamov has been a revelation, playing in 18 straight games (16 starts). He has a ridiculous .961 save percentage his L4 starts and a .935 save percentage for the year at home. 10* Under Kings/Avalanche |
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03-21-18 | Ducks v. Flames UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
10* Under Ducks/Flames (9:35 ET): This is an incredibly important game for both sides as they try and work their way into the top eight in the Western Conference. Anaheim currently occupies that eighth and final playoff spot, but it's a precarious hold as Dallas and St. Louis are each within three points of them. A win here though and the Ducks would move past the Kings for third place in the Pacific Division, a spot which guarantees you a playoff berth. Meanwhile, Calgary's playoff hopes are looking to be on "life support." They've fallen a bit behind the pack (trail Anaheim by six points) and are 11th in the Western Conference standings, meaning they need to jump at least three teams. Their -18 YTD goal differential does not exactly bode well for their future either. But I'm not making a play on the side for this one. They've lost eight of 11, including three straight, but you have to think the Flames are going to come in highly motivated tonight. After all, they were just beaten by lowly Arizona (5-2, on the road) Monday night. It was their third consecutive game allowing at least four goals and they've also allowed that many each of the last four times they have lost. A 3-14 head to head record w/ Anaheim is another reason not to like Calgary here, but you have to take into account than the Ducks are a subpar team on the road. They've won their last three games, but all three wins were at home. Over the last month, they've played only three road games and totaled just three goals in them (all losses). Despite an average of more than 40 shots per game, Calgary has averaged just 1.8 goals its last five contests. Many times, I might then forecast some sort of offensive explosion is forthcoming. But not here. The Flames only rank 25th in the league in goals per game to begin with and Anaheim ranks 5th in goals allowed. All three head to head meetings this season between these two have stayed Under the total. I see this one following suit as the Ducks are off B2B four-goal games, meaning they're more likely to regress than Calgary is to improve on the offensive end. The Ducks are also 23-12 Under this season, in road games, when the total is 5.5. The Under is also 14-7 in goaltender John Gibson's 21 road starts. I have to think Calgary G Mike Smith is set to perform better as well. 10* Under Ducks/Flames |
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03-12-18 | Blues v. Ducks OVER 5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
10* Over Blues/Ducks (10:05 ET): These days, it seems as if every Western Conference matchup is vital to to the playoff race, and this one is no exception. Anaheim currently sits third in the Pacific, which would mean a guaranteed playoff spot, but they're anything but secure w/ only a one-point edge over the fourth place Kings and a two-point edge over the fifth place Flames. At the same time, the Ducks are only one win away from taking over second place from San Jose. So tonight's result is going to have huge reprucussions for them. So too will it for St. Louis, who of the 11 teams currently in the playoff hunt, is in 11th position. The Blues are three points back of the Wild Card and need to jump multiple teams. After what the Blues did to the Kings Saturday, it certainly appears as if they're ready to break out. They scored SEVEN times in a huge win out in Staples Center, which was the same number of goals they'd scored - combined - in the previous six games (shut out three times). Let that win not make your forget that St. Louis has been ice cold of late, losing 9 of 11 games overall. To say I could see their previous result coming would be a lie as they were coming off a 2-0 loss to San Jose where they'd been outshot 36-16. But, out of nowhere, they turned around and dealt the Kings their worst loss of the season in a game that saw 83 total shots. Seven different players scored and the first three goals all came from defensemen. You have to think the offense is going to start improving down the home stretch, given how poorly they had performed on that end of the ice the last month. Anaheim has a pretty similar profile to St. Louis in that they are in the top seven in the league in goals allowed, but outside the top 20 in goals scored. Neither team's power play figures to set the world on fire, but both are sound on the penalty kill. That sounds like a recipe for an Under, but the Over is 3-0 this season in Ducks' home games if the O/U line is 5.0. The Over is 3-1 in Blues' road games at that number. Anaheim is off a 2-1 loss to Dallas that definitely hurt as they allowed 37 shots on goal. Both teams typically allow a high number shots per game (Ducks top five in that department), so I'm expecting this one to go Over the low number. 10* Over Blues/Ducks |
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03-10-18 | Devils v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Devils/Predators (8:05 ET): Few expected the Devils to be in the position that they're currently in right now, that being a potential playoff team in the East. That said, their hold on said spot is rather precarious right now as they would be the second of two Wild Card entrants (thus drawing Tampa Bay in the 1st round) and hard-charging Florida isn't far behind (only three points). Incredibly though, the gap between New Jersey and the team below them in the Metro standings (Carolina) is almost the same as the gap between NJ and 1st place Pittsburgh! So there's a wide range of options as to where the Devils may finish at season's end. Unfortunately for them though, they are in Nashville tonight. The Predators are the hottest team in the league right now, having won 10 games in a row. They have blown by Vegas for the top spot in the Western Conference and are now challenging Tampa Bay (one point back) for the President's Trophy. Keep in mind that when this team made its run to the Stanley Cup Finals last year, they entered as a Wild Card. This year's team is much stronger (i.e. deeper) and ranks in the top 12 in goals scored, goals allowed, penalty killing and the power play. Penalty killing is the only area they are not top six (12th). So, in other words, good luck to Devils tonight trying to win here in Nashville where the Preds have gone 24-7-3 SU this season. A big reason for the Preds' success is that they rank #1 in the league in goals allowed. They are allowing only 2.5 per game for the year and they've allowed just two total in the last two games, both coming in Thursday's win over Anaheim. New Jersey had no luck finding the back of the net when they hosted Nashville back in late January as they were shutout, 3-0. Pekka Rinne is making a strong case for the Vezina Trophy and has a .942 save percentage his L4 starts. The interesting thing w/ New Jersey's success this year is that its come despite them not being quite as stingy as past seasons. But I expect goaltender Corey Schnieder to play a lot better here than he did against Winnipeg on Thursday when the Devils lost 3-2 despite a 43-24 edge in shots. Six of the Devils last seven games have stayed Under the total. 10* Under Devils/Predators |
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03-09-18 | Ducks v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Ducks/Stars (8:35 ET): As most are these days, this is a really key game in the Western Conference. Right now, you essentially have 11 teams competing for the eight playoff spots. The top three in each division are guaranteed entry. Anaheim is third in the Pacific, but just one point behind San Jose (who was a winner for me last night!) and only only point ahead of Los Angeles (who I believe is better than both of its California rivals). Over in the Central, Dallas is in fourth place and has the same number of points as Anaheim (80). The Stars trail third place Minnesota by three points and are ahead of fifth place Colorado by only two. So expect a "playoff-like atmosphere" in this one, which means a low-scoring game. Take the Under. As I've discussed previously, there's been a transformation w/ the Stars this season and one for the better. In previous seasons, this was an "all offense, no defense" type team. Even when they won the Central two years ago, they still ranked 19th in goals allowed. Last year, they missed the playoffs, sinking all the way down to 29th in goals allowed. This year, they're all the way up to 4th! Unfortunately for them, however, the offense betrayed them in a shutout loss (2-0) to Nashville. It was the third straight game to go Under for the Stars and four of the last five has seen five or fewer total goals scored. That's what I like to see w/ a play like this. Conversely, Anaheim has been at or near the top of the league in goals allowed the past two seasons. They ranked 1st in 2015-16 and 3rd last season. This year, they're "down" to 6th, but that's just fine (they're also #3 in penalty killing). Ironically, they too are off a loss at Nashville, their coming last night by a score of 4-2. That marked just the third time in the last 13 games that the Ducks allowed three or more goals in regulation. On offense, they are in the bottom 10 in goals per game, so I'll look past the recent uptick in scoring that occurred prior to the Nashville loss. The only prior meeting between these two teams this season took place last month in Anaheim and while Dallas had a 41-17 edge in shots, they were blanked 2-0. That is one of three shutouts for the Ducks in their last eight games overall. Anaheim is also 12-5 Under this year after allowing 4+ goals the previous game. 10* Under Ducks/Stars |
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03-06-18 | Capitals v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
10* Under Capitals/Ducks (10:05 ET): These two each won their respective divisions last season, but 2017-18 is proving to be a bit more challenging for both. The Caps are in first place in the Metro, mind you, but are nowhere near as dominant as they were a season ago. That said they did just beat Toronto 5-2 in an outdoor game in Annapolis, scoring all five goals in the first two periods. Anaheim is also in off B2B victories and scored a ton in their last one as well. They beat Chicago 6-3 here at The Pond back on Sunday. It's been a high-scoring homestand thus far for the Ducks, but w/ the Caps having to "readjust" after playing outdoors and these being two good teams, I'm expecting a low-scoring affair tonight. Take the Under. Tonight wraps up a four-game homestand for the Ducks and so far all three games have gone Over. Things started w/ a 6-5 loss to Edmonton, but they've since rallied for a 4-2 win over Columbus and the aforementioned 6-3 win over Chicago. It's not like this offensive surge is commonplace for the Ducks, who rank only 22nd in the league in goals per game. Consider in the three previous games, all were shutouts, two in their favor and one not. They do rank 6th in the league in goals allowed and are 5th in penalty killing. Note that projected starting goalie John Gibson has a ridiculously good .945 save percentage his L4 starts. He's 7-1-1 since the Break, which has allowed Anaheim to crawl (skate?) back into playoff position. Washington will play its next three game all out in California w/ stops in LA and San Jose to follow. They've had issues keeping the opponent out of the back of the net in road games this season, but Braden Holtby figures to be a lot more stout here than he was outdoors vs. Toronto. Holtby also struggled in Columbus last week, but again Anaheim is hardly prolific and biorhythms suggests both offenses are bound to cool off here. In fact, the Ducks have yet to go Over in four consecutive games at any point this season, going 3-0 Under when they are off three straight Overs, a trend that applies tonight. Washington has been held to three or fewer goals in six of its last eight games overall. 10* Under Capitals/Ducks |
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03-05-18 | Senators v. Stars UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
8* Under Senators/Stars (8:35 ET): Dallas needs this game badly. They're at home and facing one of the bottom five teams in the league. Entering tonight, they have a three-point cushion on a Wild Card spot, but are also only two points back of third place Minnesota in the Central. Again, given the "lay of the land," Ottawa is a team they have to beat. The oddsmakers are all too aware of this, however, and have installed the Stars as massive money line favorites. So, for me, that's really not an option. But where I do see value is the total as Dallas' reputation for playing high-scoring games has not really played out this season. Take the Under. Saturday, I had the Stars as they picked up a key win over St. Louis, 3-2 in overtime. In my analysis of that matchup, I noted the transformation that has taken place here in "Big D" this season as goaltending has led the way and will be the reason this team likely makes the playoffs. The Stars are 4th right now in goals allowed, a massive jump from last year when they ranked near the bottom of the league in that department. At home, they've been even stingier, giving up an average of just 2.43 goals per game. Now there have been some recent "hiccups" in that department as the Stars have allowed five or more goals four times in the nine games. But they've allowed two or fewer in each of the other five, including two shutouts.Ben Bishop is the likely starter in goal tonight and he's been outstanding all year at home w/ a .930 save percentage. \ Ottawa stinks, no matter how you slice it. They have just one win in the last seven games and ironically it came at Vegas of all places. That was a 5-4, but other than that they haven't scored more than three goals in a game since 2.17. They are 24th in the league in scoring. (Dallas, for the record, has a "middle of the road" 15th place ranking in that department). The Sens just lost 2-1 to Arizona on Saturday as they generated only 24 shots on goal. The key here will be keeping the Dallas' offense in check, but in a battle of two teams that are either average or well below average in goal scoring, I see no reason why the O/U line should be this high. 8* Under Senators/Stars |
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03-02-18 | Devils v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
8* Under Devils/Hurricanes (7:35 ET): Carolina certainly got one over one me last night as they went into Philadelphia and not only snapped their own six-game losing streak, but also snapped the Flyers' six game win streak. It was an emotional 4-1 victory w/ captain Jordan Staal making a surprise return to the ice following the death of his infant daughter. The 'Canes quickly jumped out to a 3-0 advantage and never looked back, limiting Philly to just 22 shots on goal. Tonight, they get to return to Raleigh and face one of the teams they are attempting to chase down in the Metro, that being New Jersey. The Devils have been one of the biggest surprises in the legaue this year, but did lose last night, 3-2 at Florida. So we've got both teams playing the second game of a back to back. It's also the third game in four nights for both sides. For New Jersey, all three will have been on the road. Playing on back to back days, the Devils are 6-6 SU this year and have an O/U record of 7-5. For Carolina, they are just 5-8 SU playing w/o rest and 9-3-1 Under. These teams met twice in February w/ the Devils winning both times, 5-2 at home and 3-2 here in Raleigh. Carolina, as we often see, had more shots on goal only to come out on the losing end (both times). Last night stopped a streak of six consecutive games scoring three or fewer goals for the 'Canes. I think we can expect a low-scoring game tonight. The Under is 5-0-1 in New Jersey's last six games. Keith Kinkaid is the likely starter in goal for them as Corey Schneider played last night. Kinkaid made 40 saves in the last meeting w/ Carolina and has a .946 save percentage his L4 starts. Goaltending has been a concern all year for the 'Canes, but New Jersey is only 15th in goals per game while Carolina themselves ranks 26th. We don't see an O/U line of 6.0 very often w/ either of these teams. For Carolina, this will be just the fifth time and for New Jersey only the 11th. 8* Under Devils/Hurricanes |
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02-27-18 | Oilers v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
10* Over Oilers/Sharks (10:35 ET): This is a big game for the Sharks, who have lost three in a row. Their most recent defeat was rough as they blew a two-goal lead in Minnesota on Sunday and lost in overtime. (I had the Wild!). They're still in second place in the Pacific mind you (75 points), but the fifth place team has 73 points, so one more loss could be extremely detrimental. As much as I want to "pull the trigger" here and take them against Edmonton, I just can't. The Oilers, who are this season's biggest disappointment, have won three in a row and are playing much better right now. What I can predict, however, is this will be a high-scoring game. Take the Over. Edmonton's three-game win streak has seen them score a total of 13 goals. They outlasted Anaheim Sunday night, winning 6-5 in a shootout. Really, goal scoring should never have been an issue for the Oilers this year. They are near the top of the league in shots per game (34.0), but seem to be snake-bitten as opposing goaltenders have posted a somewhat stunning .916 save percentage against them. That's among the highest marks in the league. Of course, that can be overcome, but not when you're own goaltending is lousy and such is the case w/ the Oilers, who have seen their netminders post a collective .896 save percentage this year. That's the worst mark in the league and a big reason why they allow the third most goals per game. Also, they are dead last in penalty killing. San Jose looks to have a massive edge on special teams here as they are #1 in the league in penalty killing and sixth on the power play. I do look for the Sharks' offensive numbers to start improving on this homestand, which will take them through the middle of March. When it comes to the number of shots and goals per game, both numbers are up significantly when they play at "The Tank." They also just added Evander Kane (20 goals/20 assists) at the trade deadline. At the same time though, I am concerned w/ the number of shots they've been allowing of late. That number is 36.5 per game over the L5 contests. It's very likely Edmonton is going to get a lot of scoring chances here and I'm just not very confident in either Sharks' goaltender right now. 10* Over Oilers/Sharks |
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02-23-18 | Sharks v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* Over Sharks/Blackhawks (8:35 ET): Chicago is desperately trying to right the ship here as they are stuck in last place in the Central w/ a lot of ground to make up and many teams to jump, if they are to make the playoffs for a 10th consecutive year. Last Saturday saw them snap an eight-game losing streak w/ a 7-1 win over Washington, looking like the "Blackhawks of old." However, they went right back to their losing ways on Monday as they fell at home to the Kings, 3-1. Wednesday, it was back into the win column w/ a 3-2 win over Ottawa. Tonight's opponent (San Jose) had been playing well. The keyword there though is "had." Last night, they were torched in Nashville, giving up seven goals in an ugly loss (I had the Preds!). Prior to last night's 7-1 loss, the Sharks had won B2B games as well as five of their last six. Tonight marks their third road game in four nights, which is obviously not a great spot. I'm a little bit concerned over the goaltending right now. Aaron Dell's struggles continued last night as despite making 39 saves, he was responsible for all seven goals allowed. Martin Jones figures to be an obvious choice to start tonight, but I don't see him being able to maintain his save percentage (.947!) from the last four starts either. The Sharks obviously gave up a lot of shots last night (46) and figure to be under siege again here as the Blackhawks average a strong number of shots per game here at the United Center (36.1). Chicago has its own issues between the pipes right now, namely the ongoing injury situation w/ Corey Crawford, whose absence has coincided w/ the team's tailspin. This is the first game of a back to back for the 'Hawks and HC Joel Quenneville has said he'll be using both Anton Forsberg and Jean-Francois Berube. Truthfully, neither is a great option right now. Forsberg certainly is the more experienced of the two, but the team has gone only 7-15 SU in his 22 starts. Berube has never started, only once coming on in relief and he gave up two goals on 14 shots. San Jose is long overdue to score on the power play as they are 0 for 18 w/ the man advantage the L7 games. This is a team that has the fifth ranked power play in the league this season (22.0%). They'd also scored a total of 12 goals in three games before last night's debacle. 10* Over Sharks/Blackhawks |
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02-22-18 | Blue Jackets v. Flyers OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
10* Over Blue Jackets/Flyers (7:05 ET): This is a rematch from last week when Philly went into Columbus and won in overtime, by a score of 2-1. That served as a continuation of a trend (that's since held) which has the two teams heading in very opposite directions. In the midst of the muddled Metropolitan Division, the Flyers are strengthening their position of late by winning 7 of 8. I had them Tuesday as they again won in overtime, this time 3-2 over Montreal. They're also now 23-8-3 since December 4th and haven't lost a game in regulation since the 1st of the month at New Jersey. The Flyers' 72 pts have them sitting in a nice spot (third in the division) while the Blue Jackets have dropped 8 of 11 (3-6-2) and are in 5th in the Metro. But a gap is forming between the top four and the bottom four in the division. Expect a higher scoring game this time around. Last week's 2-1 win in Columbus saw the Flyers give up 36 shots, so they were a bit lucky to win there. They've now gone into extra time six of the last nine games. Their number of "loser points" (OT/SO losses) are tied for second most in the league w/ 10, so this is a team that's gone beyond regulation often. Recently though, they've been coming out ahead more often than not. However, there are two concerns I have moving forward. One is the penalty killing. The Flyers have gotten away w/ having zero players in the box the L3 games. They are only 28th on the PK (75.0%), so if/when they do take a penalty (tonight?), look for them to potentially give up a goal there. Also, there's the goaltending situation. Petr Mrazek was brought over from Detroit, almost out of necessity, and likely makes his 1st start here tonight. The team's top two goalies - Brian Elliott and Michael Neuvirth - are both on IR. Expected regression from the PK unit (simply by being out there!) and question marks between the pipes should be conducive to more Overs. At the least the Flyers are sixth on the power play, while Columbus is 27th on the PK. So, Philly has that going for itself. With two teams so bad down a man, I expect multiple PP goals in this one. I also should mention that the Flyers have scored 4+ goals in five of the last seven contests. Meanwhile, Columbus is due to start scoring more given the number of shots the L6 games. Ironically, they beat Montreal Tuesday (2-1) despite only 19 shots on goal. But in the five games prior, they got off 50, 51, 57, 36 and 37 shots. That's a ton! The Blue Jackets are also 6-2 Over when seeking revenge for a home loss. 10* Over Flyers/Blue Jackets |
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02-21-18 | Flames v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 115 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
8* Over Flames/Golden Knights (10:35 ET): Vegas suffered a RARE home defeat on Monday, and a shutout at that, losing 2-0 to Anaheim. Not to worry though, the Pacific Division leaders still own a 22-5-2 won-loss record in Sin City where they average a very healthy 3.6 goals per game. Only three teams in the league score more at home, and one of them (Winnipeg) was part of a successful Over play I had last night (the Jets lost to the Kings 4-3). I also won an Over play w/ the Golden Knights their game before the Anaheim loss, that being a 6-3 win over Montreal. A bounce back offensively has to be expected here, but at the same time I question the goaltending (of Vegas). Take the Over. As you know, eight teams make the playoffs in each conference. The top three in the two divisions (per conference) are guaranteed six of those spots and then there are two Wild Cards, which can come from either division. Taking inventory right now, I see seven playoff probables in the Western Conference: Nashville, Winnipeg, Dallas, St. Louis, Vegas, San Jose and Los Angeles. Calgary is one of three teams I see as an option for the second of the two WC spots, along w/ Minnesota and Anaheim. Currently, the Flames are two points behind those two, so you can see just how important a win would be here. Easier said than done, but they are in the top 10 in goals per game scored on the road this season. Like the Golden Knights, the Flames are off a low-scoring loss, theirs coming at home to Boston by a 2-1 count (game went to overtime). But this was on the heels of three straight Overs w/ them scoring seven times in the two games prior. All three games saw at least seven total goals scored. This has actually been a better team on the road this year (17-7-5). A concern I do have w/ Calgary here though is David Rittich starting between the pipes. His last four starts have brought a save percentage of .890. Vegas remains non-committal between the pipes, but I've long been suspicious of their success in that area. They are 5-1 Over this season though after being held to 1 or 0 goals the previous game. Five of the last six games have seen the Knights finish w/ 33+ shots on goal. 8* Over Flames/Golden Knights |
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02-19-18 | Kings v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10* Over Kings/Blackhawks (8:35 ET): Back in 2014, the Kings and Blackhawks met in the Western Conference Finals w/ the former advancing in a seven game series. Fast forward four years to the present and both are now struggling just to make the playoffs. I was on the Kings Saturday as they picked up what I called in my analysis a "must win" at Buffalo (won 4-2). However, they are still two points back of the final spot in the Western Conference playoff picture and have two more games to go on this seven-game road trip. Things are looking far more dire in the Windy City though. Chicago is in last place in the Central Division and just picked up its first win of February on Saturday (albeit in very impressive fashion). It had been eight straight defeats for the Blakhawks before the beat Washington 7-1 here on Saturday. Few could have seen that coming considering how the club had been playing previously. Looking at the gap they face to make the playoffs and how many teams they have to jump, I think we're looking at the first non-playoff year in Chicago since 2007-08. However, there's no denying that you have to like what you saw from the offense against the Capitals. Seven different players scored and they got off 44 shots on goal. Getting off shots has not been an issue for the Blackhawks, even during the losing streak. Three times in the last five games, they've had exactly 44 shots on goal. They've averaged 40.2 per game overall during that span. The Kings generally win w/ defense as they are #2 in the league in goals allowed and have the third best penalty killing unit. However, they've also scored three or more goals in six of the last seven games. Based on the number of goals vs. shots we've seen recently, they too are due for an increase in scoring moving forward. At the same time, they're also allowing more shots per game than we're used to seeing. They've allowed 35 or more shots in four of the last five games and Jonathan Quick has been a little bit suspect in goal lately. Of course, Chicago has bigger goaltending issues w/ Corey Crawford still out. Anton Forsberg is your likely starter here and he's got an .894 save percentage his L4 starts. 10* Over Kings/Blackhawks |
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02-18-18 | Oilers v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
8* Over Oilers/Avalanche (3:05 ET): Look for the scoreboard to be plenty busy in this Western Conference matchup Sunday. Few, if any, could have predicted that Colorado would have more points than Edmonton at this point in the season. But the former has certainly been one of the more "pleasant" surprises of this NHL season, going from worst team in the league (by a mile) last year to potential playoff entrant. Edmonton, on the other hand, is arguably this year's biggest disappointment. The fanbase believe the team was ready to challenge for a Stanley Cup, but instead they won't even be making the playoffs. The disappointment continued for the Oilers yday as they were shutout in Arizona, 1-0. That's the worst team in the league they were shutout by, mind you. It's not like Edmonton didn't have its fair share of chances though; they had 40 shots on goal for the game. It had to very disappointing to lose in that fashion considering the previous three games (all losses) saw the Oilers allow a total of 17 goals. The team has now dropped six in a row and ranks 29th in the league in goals allowed. Their special teams are absolutely horrific as they rank dead last on the power play and in penalty killing. In the first five games of the current losing streak, they allowed three or more goals every time. That doesn't even include a 4-3 home loss to Colorado on Feb 1, an easy Over. Colorado didn't fare well its last time out either as they lost 6-1 at Winnipeg. It was their second 6-1 loss in the last five games as the Blues got them by that same score back on Feb 8th. Goal scoring has become an issue recently for the Avs as they've been held to two or fewer in four of the previous five games. But this matchup should change that. Leading scorer Nathan MacKinnon is back and the team's offensive dip can directly be tied to his absence. MacKinnon was 2nd in the league in goals scored when he injured his left shoulder Jan 30th in Vancouver. The Avs have won 10 in a row on home ice w/ the last loss here at the Pepsi Center coming all the way back on December 27th! They've scored a total of 38 goals in those 10 wins. Both teams' goaltending situations are suspect here. Edmonton may have to turn to Laurent Brossoit as Cam Talbot was between the pipes last night and regular backup Al Montoya took a puck to the face in practice Friday. Brossoit has an .886 save percentage for the year. Colorado's Semyon Varlamov is coming off a 44-save shutout Wednesday vs. Montreal, but shouldn't be expected to repeat that kind of performance. 8* Over Oilers/Avalanche |
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02-17-18 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* Over Canadiens/Golden Knights (7:05 ET): What's going on in Vegas has certainly been the story of this NHL season as the expansion Golden Knights continye to lead the Pacific Division (80 pts) and would be the top seed in the Western Conference were the playoffs to begin today. They say "what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas," but in the case of the hockey team, they've traveled relatively well this season, even though the road record (17-11-2) is nowhere near as good as their home record (21-4-2). Tonight, the Knights are again on home ice where they've scored nine goals the last two games in beating Edmonton and Chicago. There's no reason to believe they won't win again here, but the asking price (money line) is astronomical, so I'll be staying away from that. Montreal was a division winner itself last season, taking the Atlantic w/ 103 points. But they were ousted in the 1st rd of the playoffs (six games) by the Rangers and there has been a carryover to this year as the Habs have been one of the league's biggest disappointments. They currently are in sixth in the Atlantic and well off the playoff pace. A big reason for the dropoff has been the decline of Carey Price, who carried the club last season from between the pipes. We've seen this before w/ Price and the Canadiens. In 2014-15, he won the Vezina, leading to a division title. The following season he suffered a knee injury and played in only 12 games. The result was a 28-point decline and the team missing the playoffs. With Price healthy, the Habs predictably bounce back and won the division again last season. But now the regression bug has bit them yet again. Unlike the injury plagued season of two years ago, this season Price simply hasn't been very good. His overall save percentage is barely above .900 and in his last start, he allowed five goals on just 21 shots - to the Coyotes! It was Price's eighth consecutive loss on the road. Now we do have to be concerned w/ a Montreal offense which ranks 29th in goals per game and has scored 1 or 0 goals in 8 of the last 11 games. But Vegas can clearly do the heavy lifting here as they average 3.6 goals per game at home. They are 2nd overall in goals per game and the Over is 8-2 at home this season when the total is 5.5. 10* Over Canadiens/Golden Knights |
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02-15-18 | Red Wings v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* Over Red Wings/Lightning (7:35 ET): The asking price is borderline astronomical here, as it should be, considering the league-best Lightning are returning home off rare B2B losses (both on the road). But I won't be laying the juice even though I have little to no belief in the visiting Red Wings, who have lost 10 straight regular season meetings to Tampa Bay (and 14 of the past 15 overall, including one playoff series, in 2016). Instead, I believe the better bet to be to follow another streak, that being one that has seen the Lightning go Over the total in seven consecutive games (all w/ at least six total goals scored). TB not only leads the league in goal scoring, they have five individual players w/ at least 19 goals. Take the Over. Goal scoring wasn't the problem on the just completed 0-2 road trip. Rather, TB gave up nine goals themselves. Now, a 4-3 loss to Toronto was certainly excusable, given the Maple Leafs are a good team. But losing the next night in Buffalo was far less "forgivable," even if they were w/o rest. The Sabres rank 30th in the league in goals per game yet hit up the Lightning for five, matching their season-high. That wasn't the first time the Lightning surrendered that many goals to a "bad team" this month either. Earlier, they'd allowed six in a loss to Edmonton. Should we be concerned about goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, whose save percentage in his L4 starts is .896 (Over is 4-0). For the season, the Over is 15-7 when Vasilevskiy starts at home. One thing we need not be concerned over is the Lightning offense, which not only leads the league in scoring, but also averages 3.8 goals per game on home ice. Detroit's last two road games have seen them surrendered a total of 11 goals (that number sound familiar?) and Tuesday's 2-1 win over Anaheim (at home) marked the first time in the L5 games that they allowed fewer than three. Likely to start between the pipes here is Jimmy Howard and his save percentage his L4 starts is .890. The Over is 3-1 for the Red Wings this season, in road games, if the total is 6.0. At home for the Lightning, the Over is 8-5 w/ a total of 6.0. So no need to worry about the high O/U line tonight. Something else to consider is that Tampa Bay has allowed 10 PP goals in its last 10 games. 10* Over Red Wings/Lightning |
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02-13-18 | Capitals v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Capitals/Jets (8:05 ET): Here's a battle of two of the top teams in the league. Washington leads the Metro w/ 70 points, ironic b/c tonight's opponent Winnipeg is a second place team (in the Central) despite 73 points! This game being in Manitoba is a big edge for the Jets considering a 20-5-2 mark here at Bell MTS Place. However, two of those losses have come in the last week. One was to St. Louis on Friday, then they lost to the Rangers on Sunday. They allowed eight goals in the two losses. This season-long 10-game homestand is quickly winding down and so far they're surprisingly only 3-3. So I'm not about to endorse them here in this spot. What I will endorse, however, is the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Washington is also off a loss here as they fell 5-4, in overtime, to Detroit. They've lost three of five. So neither club is exactly in "fine form" coming into tonight. But what we do have here is a matchup of two of the top eight teams in goals per game. The Caps average 3.1 gpg while the Jets average 3.2. Washington has actually scoring plenty of late, despite getting off fewer shots per game. Their last five contests have seen them average only 25 shots per game, but also 3.6 goals. Now imagine if they start getting more chances! Prior to losing to the Red Wings, they beat Columbus 4-2 despite only 17 shots on goal. At the same time though, they've allowed a total of 20 goals the L5 games. Goalie Braden Holtby has struggled on the road all season long w/ an .894 save percentage. I had the Under (a 10* winner!) in Winnipeg's last game, that being the 3-1 loss to the Rangers. However, the fact remains this team averages 3.7 goals per game at home, tied for the second highest average in the league. They've exceeded that average only once on this current homestand. So, it's only a matter of time before we start to see them find the back of the net w/ great regularity again. As for Washington, they are 14-6 Over in road games when the total is 5.5. They are also 19-9 Over when facing a team w/ a winning record. 10* Over Capitals/Jets |
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02-12-18 | Blackhawks v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
10* Over Blackhawks/Coyotes (9:05 ET): Even though Arizona is involved, few could have anticipated this being a "battle of last place teams" on Monday. Perennial power Chicago is struggling as five straight losses have kept them in the Central basement and they're now looking at an eight-point gap between them and the rest of the field. Time really is running out on them to make a push for the playoffs. As for the 'Yotes, the playoffs were never a realistic possibility entering this season as most felt they would be the worst team in the league. They've certainly lived up to advanced billing as their number of points (36) and goal differential (-64) both are league worsts. Something has to give here and I'm not about to lay the price w/ the Blackhawks. That means it's a totals play and I'm looking at the Over. The last five games have seen Chicago "doubled up" in scoring as they've lost by a combined score of 18-9. They were shutout (3-0) at Minnesota on Saturday, despite a massive 44-19 edge in shots. That might be their most frustrating loss of the year. It was only fifth time this season the 'Hawks have been shutout. Goaltending has obviously become an issue here w/ Corey Crawford still out. Jeff Glass could make only 16 saves on Saturdaay and the team has allowed the 6th most goals in the league since the Crawford injury. Though the power play still ranks 29th, I think the offense will be fine. The L3 games have seen Chicago put 36, 39 and 44 shots on goal. They should find the back of the net plenty here facing the 30th ranked team in goals allowed. Now scoring has also been an issue all season long for the Coyotes, who rank dead last in the league in goals per game. But they did score three goals in their last game, a shootout loss to Philadelphia. The shootout went seven rounds and saw them fail to beat a backup goaltender that came in cold during the five minute overtime period. That being said, the 'Yotes have scored a total of 10 goals the last three games and have posted four straight Overs. On the other side of the ledger, they allow 3.5 gpg for the season as none of the four netminders used have been reliable. Over the last five games, the team has allowed 4.2 goals per. That's 21 goals total. 10* Over Blackhawks/Coyotes |
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02-11-18 | Rangers v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
10* Under Rangers/Jets (3:00 ET): A fairly early start time in Manitoba today w/ the Jets hosting the Rangers (did you know: those are two of the six "shared" nicknames, across pro sports?). Winnipeg had been in first place in the Central for awhile, but has dropped to second after taking a tough 5-2 loss here at home on Friday (at the hands of third place St. Louis). Their division figures to be a dogfight the rest of the way w/ the top four now separated by all of five points. The Rangers also find themselves in a dogfight, but they're just trying to get into the playoff picture. A recent brutal stretch (lost 7 of 9) has them in last in the equally tough Metro as they're 4 pts back of the final playoff spot. In what I think will "feel" like a playoff game, I'm taking the under this afternoon. Winnipeg has been a GREAT team for much of the year. There was the loss Friday, but prior to that they'd gone 20-3-2 here at Bell MTS Place. What's interesting to note though is there number of shots forced/allowed don't necessarily change here, compared to the overall landscape. But scoring does, in positive directions, both when it comes to goals scored and allowed. The Jets average 3.8 goals per game here while allowing only 2.4. Connor Hellebuyck has started virtually every home game this year (save for three) and has a .928 save percentage here. It was a clear "off night" vs. the Blues Friday as he gave up four goals on just 26 shots (StL also added an empty-netter). But I would naturally expect a bounce-back today. Before scoring four goals in their last game, the Rangers had scored just four times total in their previous four contests. As a matter of fact, opposing goalies have posted a .942 save percentage against the Rangers the L5 games. Friday, it appeared as if the Blueshirts were headed for another defeat, but they scored twice in the third period including once on the power play. Note there were a total of three PP goals scored in that game between the two sides. It's not as if the Rangers have an exceptionally good power play (rank 15th). At the same time, Henrik Lundqvist has to start playing better, right? He has a .920 save percentage on the road this season, which I'll lean on more than his .894 save percentage the L4 games overall. 10* Under Rangers/Jets |
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02-09-18 | Kings v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10* Under Kings/Panthers (7:35 ET): In each of the Kings' last three games, either they or the opponent has scored five or more goals. Interesting though is the fact that two of those games were also shutouts, one in their favor (6-0 over Arizona) and one not (5-0 loss at Nashville). Wednesday's win over Edmonton made it 11 goals for LA alone in the L2 games, but prior to that six of their last eight games had stayed Under the total. Tonight, they embark on a critical seven-game road trip w/ the majority of games taking place out East. There's plenty to like about this team moving forward (#2 in goals allowed/#1 in penalty killing) and they seem to have "righted the ship" (won 5 of 7) after a January swoon. However, they are facing a pretty hot team in its own right. Give me the Under in this non-conference matchup. The Panthers have won four in a row, giving up only six goals in the process. They are riding the very unlikely success story of Harri Sateri, a 28-year old rookie, in goal. Sateri has posted a stunning .950 save percentage while starting every game during the team's active win streak. Tuesday vs. Vancouver, he stopped 26 of 27 shots. Having had the last two days off is nice because right now Sateri is basically the team's lone option between the pipes as Roberto Luongo is still injured and James Reimer is just getting cleared Friday. Since Jan 21st, Sateri has the second most saves of any goaltender in the league. However, something he and the rest of the Panthers will have to deal w/ here is the Kings are a team that likes to dominate possession of the puck. Of course, all teams "like" to dominate possession; the Kings just happen to do it better than most. Thus, I see Florida's streak of scoring three or more goals being snapped here at four games. It's not like the Panthers are a dominant offensive team. For the season, they rank only 19th in goals per game. The Kings aren't much better at 17th. Something else to like here, as it pertains to the Under, is that we're going to get Jonathan Quick in goal for LA. Quick, who has not played the L2 games, had actually struggled of late. But following some time off, I expect him to regain previous form. His save percentage against Eastern Conference teams this year is .931. 10* Under Kings/Panthers |
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02-04-18 | Sharks v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
8* Under Sharks/Hurricanes (1:05 ET): San Jose's reputation as one of the league's top Under teams has been well-established by this point. Only their division rival Anaheim is on par w/ their 19-31-1 Under mark right now and that's even after four of the last six games have gone Over. But the last two have both stayed Under. After beating Columbus 3-1 on Friday, the Sharks' trek out East continues this afternoon w/ a visit to Carolina. The Hurricanes are right up there at the top of the league in terms of number of shots per game, however, they are only 24th in goals per game. Given the opposition here, that discrepancy isn't about to start rectifying itself. Each of the 'Canes L3 games have gone Under and so will this one. While San Jose has been traveling, Carolina has gotten to stay in the friendly confines of home as this will be their fourth consecutive game in Raleigh and they've got four more coming after today. Unfortunately though, they've managed only five goals total in the first three and while two was enough to beat back both Montreal and Ottawa, it was a 4-1 loss to Detroit on Friday. There were a ton of shots in that game (38-37 in favor of the Red Wings), but Carolina just couldn't find a way to score save for the power play. Their PP has scored in 13 of the previous 14 games, but I don't expect that trend to continue as they rank only 19th on the man advantage for the season (at 19.4%). Also, the team is 13-7 Under after allowing 4+ goals in the previous game. San Jose has actually done Carolina "one better" in terms of the power play of late, scoring 14 times in their last 15 games. Two of their goals in the 3-1 win over Columbus Friday came when having a man advantage. Unlike Carolina, there is evidence that this could continue for the Sharks, who rank 4th in PP% for the season. But, at the same time, the current pace will be difficult (if not impossible) to maintain. The Sharks will also have to face Carolina's top goalie, Cam Ward, something Detroit did not have to do. Ward has a .926 save percentage his L4 starts. San Jose's goaltending situation is what has really kept the team afloat. Aaron Dell and Martin Jones have both been reliable options all year. 8* Under Sharks/Hurricanes |
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02-03-18 | Lightning v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
10* Over Lightning/Canucks (10:05 ET): Vegas is obviously the better story, but for most of this season, Tampa Bay has been the NHL's best team. They arrive in Vancouver (for what should be a relatively easy matchup) w/ the most points and the best scoring differential. However, generally speaking, I don't like to lay this much juice on the road. Therefore, let's look at the total, shall we? The Over seems like a good "buy" considering the Lightning are the highest scoring team in the league and the Canucks are 25th in goals allowed. There's no doubt in my mind that TB will "get theirs" Saturday night. But also don't be surprised if Vancouver is able to find the back of the net multiple times in this one as well. Take the Over. Case in point, Vancouver is off B2B wins and scored four goals in each victory. Those wins both came at home and were at the expense of Colorado and Chicago. They were shutout in the final game before the All-Star Break (by Buffalo!), but the game before that saw them score six goals in a win over the Kings. So that's 14 goals in the last four games for them despite being shutout in one of them. Something else worth noting is Vancouver swept the season series LY from Tampa Bay, scoring nine goals in two games! Of course, the Lightning can score too. They proved that by beating Calgary 7-4 on Thursday night. They too have scored four or more in three of the past four games. The Over is 15-9 for the Lightning this season if they scored four or more goals the previous game. 10* Over Lightning/Canucks |
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02-01-18 | Blackhawks v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
8* Over Blackhawks/Canucks (10:05 ET): As recently as a month ago, if I would have told you that one of these two teams would be in last place on Feb 1st, the virtually unanimous choice would have likely been the Canucks. Sure, they play in the same division as Arizona, but there's certainly no way that mighty Chicago could ever find itself in the division cellar, right? Wrong. They come into today last in the Central. Now that's a bit of a misleading distinction seeing as they have 55 pts, nine more than the Canucks. Furthermore, the Central is as tough as any division in recent memory. Every teams besides the Blackhawks has a winning record. As "easy" as it might seem to call for a Blackhawks' victory here, season-long inconsistencies give me pause. They have won B2B road games, beating Detroit and Nashville, but that was around the All-Star Break w/ plenty of time off in between. The 'Hawks did lose their only prior visit to B.C. earlier this season. I do think they'll be able to score plenty in this matchup though. Vancouver gives up 3.4 goals per game here at home and it's not as if goaltender Jacob Markstrom is involved in any kind of Vezina discussion. Overall, the Canucks rank 25th in goals allowed. The last three Vancouver games have all seen either them or the opponent score four goals. Last time out, it was a 4-3 win over Colorado, in overtime. That was after being shutout by Buffalo, 4-0, last Thursday. The game before that was a 6-2 win over the Kings. All three took place here at home. Chicago's goaltending remains in flux as Corey Crawford is still out. Jeff Glass and Anton Forsberg continue to split time. Forsberg has played the better of the two of late, but he also stunk against Vancouver in the last visit, giving up five goals on 31 shots. 8* Over Blackhawks/Canucks |
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01-31-18 | Sharks v. Red Wings OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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01-30-18 | Wild v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under Wild/Blue Jackets (7:05 ET): Neither of these teams are happy where they're at coming out of the All-Star Break as both find themselves on the fringe of playoff participation. Columbus is a tenuous second in the Metro, tied w/ Pittsburgh, but just one point ahead of two others and two points ahead of two more. Four of those six teams will likely make the postseason, we just don't know which ones yet and given the Blue Jackets' YTD goal differential (-6), they're far from a "lock" at this point. Over in the Western Conference, Minnesota is one of four teams currently tied for the final Wild Card spot w/ 57 points. In this first game back, I like the Under tonight. The Wild are not a great road team. They're 17-4-4 on home ice, but just 9-14-1 otherwise. Their goal scoring predictably goes down on the road (2.6 gpg), although at the same time they do give up 3.7 gpg. Goalie Devan Dubnyk hasn't been nearly as effective as he was last season. Dubnyk did not have a strong effort in the final game before the Break as he allowed four goals on 21 shots vs. Pittsburgh, before getting pulled. But I'm pretty confident he'll bounce back here w/ the benefit of time off. Also, it sure does help that Columbus is 29th in the league in goals per game as well as dead last (31st) on the power play. It's an ideal opponent for a struggling goaltender. The Blue Jackets are 7-2 Under in the month of January, not a surprise given the offensive rankings listed above. It also helps to have Sergei Bobrovsky, who has been very good at home this year w/ a .933 save percentage. Bobrovsky made 38 saves in the team's 2-1 win over Arizona last Thursday. Offensively, the Blue Jackets have not topped three goals in regulation in any game this month. I expect a slow start to this game as both sides try to get back into the "groove." 10* Under Wild/Blue Jackets |
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01-25-18 | Wild v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 105 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Over Wild/Penguins (7:05 ET): I think that it would certainly be fair to label both of these teams as "first half (of the season) disappointments," certainly when juxtaposed w/ LY's results. Pittsburgh has of course won B2B Stanley Cups. So for them to be on the periphery of playoff contention is certainly noteworthy. Minnesota finished w/ 106 pts LY, but would NOT be in the playoffs (if they started today) despite playing well of late. So a lot is on the line here tonight. Each team plays in the tougher division of their respective conference. Not sure who gets the two points, but I do like the total. Scoring is down for the Pens this year, but they still boast the league's top power play unit. The Wild have scored 14 goals the L4 games. Take the Over. Above, I mentioned that the Wild have been playing well of late. They come into tonight having won B2B games as well as four of the last five. They've been off for two days since beating Ottawa 3-1. Before that, it was an impressive 5-2 win over Tampa Bay. Both wins came at home, however. They totaled 71 shots, which is a nice number. But the road has been far less kind this season, especially on the defensive end as they are giving up 3.6 goals per game. The Over is 12-6 in Wild road games this season if the O/U line is 5.5. In goal, Devan Dubnyk has played really well of late (.940 save percentage L4 starts), but is probably due to drop off. The Over is 8-4-1 in his road starts this season. For Pittsburgh, Sidney Crosby has not scored a goal in the L4 games, so it's only a matter of time now before he finds the back of the net again. As for the rest of team, they have scored three or more goals in four of the previous five games (no OT). The Pens continue to do a good job of getting the puck on net as they average 34.5 shots per game, which is just behind Chicago for the most in the league. At home, the number of shot attempts per game jumps to 37.5! They've had no fewer than 31 shots in eight consecutive contests. As for who is going to be in goal tonight, there's still some question over that. Casey DeSmith has started the last three games, as #1 Matt Murray has been dealing w/ a personal issue, and played well. But similar to Dubnyk for the Wild, I don't see DeSmith maintaining those numbers. Tristan Jarry has struggled. 10* Over Wild/Penguins |
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01-23-18 | Jets v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 105 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Jets/Sharks (10:35 ET): Call this a "West Side Story" as it's the Jets and Sharks facing off Tuesday. In the Western Conference, the Jets are one of your two division leaders, but it is by no means a firm hold as the Central is shaping up to be an incredibly tough race. Meanwhile, San Jose has inched its way up to second place in the Pacific, trailing only Vegas. But they too are by no means "in the clear" as only three points separate them from fourth place. So tonight's game definitely carries quite a bit of importance. The Sharks haven't been a dominant home team, but getting this game in "The Tank" is big simply because Winnipeg is 17-3-1 at their rink while just 11-10-6 on the road. Still, I'm staying away from the money line on this one. Looking at the total, San Jose has been one of the top Under teams in the league this season. It's them and SoCal rival Anaheim way out in front of the pack in that regard. The Under is 14-7-1 in their home games. But lately, the team has seen an uptick in scoring as they've averaged 3.6 goals over the L5 games. Since January 1st, they are actually tied for the league lead w/ 35 goals scored. Now, that average is somewhat inflated due to Sunday's six-goal effort, in Anaheim of all places. They scored those six goals despite just 26 shots, but I'd expect them to have more chances tonight as Winnipeg gives up a decent number of shots per game, at least on the road (32.7 per game). Aaron Dell is expected to start in goal for San Jose and while that's a good thing (he's top five in GAA and save percentage), tonight would mark the first time all season that he's started three consecutive games. Winnipeg is going to go w/ Connor Hellebuyck and for good reason as he is coming off a phenomenal week. But I expect regression as those kind of numbers simply cannot be maintained. He's also been quite a bit shakier on the road where his record is just 8-5-5. The Jets have gone Under in four consecutive games, totaling just five goals. So, at the same time, isn't it maybe time for a breakout offensively? I'd answer that in the affirmative as this team ranks 6th in the league in goals per game and also boasts the 2nd best power play. Look for a high-scoring affair tonight. 10* Over Jets/Sharks |
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Bryan Power NHL Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-25-18 | Canucks v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
03-23-18 | Devils v. Penguins UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
03-22-18 | Kings v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
03-21-18 | Ducks v. Flames UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
03-12-18 | Blues v. Ducks OVER 5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
03-10-18 | Devils v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
03-09-18 | Ducks v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
03-06-18 | Capitals v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
03-05-18 | Senators v. Stars UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
03-02-18 | Devils v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
02-27-18 | Oilers v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
02-23-18 | Sharks v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
02-22-18 | Blue Jackets v. Flyers OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
02-21-18 | Flames v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 115 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
02-19-18 | Kings v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
02-18-18 | Oilers v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
02-17-18 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
02-15-18 | Red Wings v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
02-13-18 | Capitals v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
02-12-18 | Blackhawks v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
02-11-18 | Rangers v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
02-09-18 | Kings v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
02-04-18 | Sharks v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
02-03-18 | Lightning v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
02-01-18 | Blackhawks v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
01-31-18 | Sharks v. Red Wings OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
01-30-18 | Wild v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
01-25-18 | Wild v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 105 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
01-23-18 | Jets v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 105 | 15 h 17 m | Show |