Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-03-21 | Panthers v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
8* Over Panthers/Cowboys (1:00 ET): Dallas is a last-second FG away from being 3-0. Since losing 31-29 to the Bucs on Opening Night, America’s Team has bounced back with wins over the Chargers (on a last second FG) and the Eagles Monday Night. The offense is coming off a 41-point effort and has run for an average of 179 yards in its two wins. You can’t forget about QB Dak Prescott either. He threw for over 400 yards against Tampa Bay. As expected, the Cowboys are very good offensively. Carolina is 3-0 SU for the first time since 2015 when it made the Super Bowl with Cam Newton as MVP. Like Dallas, the Panthers are also 3-0 ATS. Their defense is #1 in the league in yards allowed and #2 in scoring. But they’ve been fortunate to face two rookie QBs (one a backup) and Jameis Winston. This will be - by far - their toughest assignment of the young season. The team has gone Under in six straight games dating back to last season. But I see that streak coming to an end here. The Panthers will be without RB Christian McCaffery. However, QB Sam Darnold is off B2B 300+ yard games as he looks to win three straight starts for the first time in his career. The Cowboys’ defense gives up over 400 yards per game, so even without McCaffery, the Panthers should move the ball and score. They would seem to have an advantage due to being off a “mini-bye” (played last Thursday) while Dallas played on MNF. But Prescott has averaged 347 yards passing his last three times playing on a short week. 8* Over Panthers/Cowboys |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Bengals | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): Urban Meyer’s Jaguars are 0-3 with all three losses coming by double digits. Not even the longest TD in NFL history, a 109-yard return of a missed FG, could get the Jags inside the number against the Cardinals last week. It’s now 18 straight losses for the franchise, a streak that obviously predates Meyer’s tenure here, and the last six have all been by 10+ points. But I believe the Jags are due to keep ONE close. I see that happening this Thursday night against a Bengals team unaccustomed to the role of favorites. Cincinnati is 2-1 but has not been favored in a single game so far. Even Jacksonville was favored once, back in Week 1. In fact, the Bengals have only been favored three times in the last three seasons and they lost two of the games outright! This season’s two wins have come against Minnesota and Pittsburgh, but they were outgained in both games and needed OT to get by the Vikings. The offense has failed to even gain 300 total yards in each of the L2 games. They also lost to the Bears in Week 2. What I’m saying here is that the Bengals should not be trusted as this large of a favorite. Especially on a short week. One would have to go back to the “height” of the Andy Dalton/Marvin Lewis era to find the last time a Bengals team was laying more than seven points at the betting window. The lookahead line was much shorter and I’m just not ready to buy into Cincy yet. Trevor Lawrence just needs to cut down on the interceptions and the Jags will at least keep it close. 8* Jacksonville |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
10* Under Eagles/Cowboys (8:20 ET): Sometime during the course of today, you’ll probably hear that seven of the NFL’s eight primetime games have gone Over the total. I had the one Under, which was Thursday’s Carolina-Houston game. There have been a lot of high-powered offenses featured in these primetime games, which makes sense as that is who the NFL wants on national TV. But when I think “high-powered” I don’t necessarily think of the Jalen Hurts-led Eagles. I’m taking the Under on MNF. The Cowboys have a high-powered offense, but here they’ll be facing an Eagles’ defense that has surrendered a total of 23 points in two games. Philly is allowing just 4.4 yards per play and 283 yards per game. The teams they’ve faced - Atlanta and San Francisco - certainly aren’t terrible offensive teams. Both games also stayed Under. Going back to the middle of last season, the Under is 9-3 in the Eagles’ last 12 games. I think this defense can do a good job of holding Dallas in check tonight. The Cowboys only scored 20 points in last week’s win over the Chargers. This is Dallas’ 1st home game of the season and they’re hoping the recent trend continues of the home team dominating this NFC East rivalry. The home team is 5-0 SU the L5 meetings. I think the Cowboys defense is going to play better than expected tonight. Hurts only completed 12 passes last week and just one to a WR after the 1Q. The Eagles have not scored more than 23 points in any of the previous four meetings with the Cowboys. 10* Under Eagles/Cowboys |
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09-26-21 | Jets +10.5 v. Broncos | Top | 0-26 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (4:05 ET): The Jets are not being given much of a chance in this game, and for good reason, but make note of the fact they did outgained New England pretty significantly last week (336-260) despite losing on the scoreboard 25-6. Growing pains were obviously expected here with a rookie coach (Robert Saleh) and QB (Zach Wilson), but the team does need to show SOMETHING this week in Denver. It’s a big spread and I feel comfortable taking the points against an opponent unaccustomed to being this large of a favorite. Denver was the only team in the league not to be favored a single time in 2020. This year has seen them favored on the road each of the first two games and now laying double digits in the home opener. How rare is this? It’s the first time the Broncos have been double digit favorites since a 2017 game vs. the Giants that they lost outright by 13 points! QB Teddy Bridgewater has an outstanding career ATS mark (37-15-1) but has NEVER been a double digit favorite before. The largest spread he’s faced previous to this one was laying eight points against Carolina in 2018 when he was with the Saints. He lost that game outright. The biggest problem for the Jets last week was four turnovers. That’s how they lost by 19 despite holding an edge in total yards. In what promises to be a low-scoring game, I think grabbing the points is prudent. Denver has not started 3-0 since 2016. They’ve only averaged 25 points the first two games and despite two double digit wins, this isn’t a team that’s normally going to win big. 0-2 ATS teams have covered at a 60% rate in Week 3 over the last decade. 10* NY Jets |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
8* Miami (4:05 ET): The fact there’s been no real line movement since it was announced that Jacoby Brissett would be starting in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa says a lot. Surprisingly, the line has even come down a bit. I thought the opening number was a bit of an overreaction to Las Vegas’ 2-0 start, which has seen them upset the Ravens and Steelers. This game was listed as pick ‘em on the lookahead line. Miami is a perfect 6-0 ATS off its L6 SU losses and 10-1 ATS after giving up 30+ points. Take the points. I really don’t think that the dropoff from Tua to Brissett is that severe. Sure, the Dolphins lost 35-0 last week at home to Buffalo. But Brissett was obviously not expecting to play. Now he gets a full week of practice to face a Raiders’ defense that gave up the second most touchdowns in the entire league last year and over 30 PPG. Vegas is a little lucky to be 2-0 as they beat Baltimore in OT and then Pittsburgh suffered multiple key injuries on defense. This is the first time the Raiders have been favored in 2021. They are just 3-7 ATS L10 as chalk with four outright losses. Miami is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog under Brian Flores. They have also won 10 of the last 12 meetings vs. the Raiders, including seven of the last eight. Last year, they pulled out a last second 26-25 win to officially eliminate Vegas from playoff contention. I’m just very skeptical of this Raiders team and it’s hard for me to see them moving to 3-0. The Dolphins’ defense will keep them in this game. 8* Miami |
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09-26-21 | Washington Football Team +7 v. Bills | Top | 21-43 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): The Football Team is 0-2 ATS as a favorite so far, but let’s try them as a dog this week. They did prevail on the field last Thursday, getting a gift from the inept Giants, who were offsides on the first game-winning FG attempt. After missing that first attempt, Washington kicker Dustin Hopkins then made the G-Men pay on his second try, putting the 43-yarder through the uprights and giving Washington a 30-29 win. I was impressed with the play of QB Taylor Heinicke, who completed 34 of 46 passes for 336 yards and two touchdowns in his first start in place of the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. This will be the Bills’ second straight week facing a backup QB. But I think it’s pretty obvious that Heinicke is better than Jacoby Brissett, who was called into emergency duty last week (Tua injured) as Buffalo blitzed Miami 35-0. Remember that Heinicke started last season’s playoff game for Washington and threw for 300+ yards against eventual Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay. The Football Team has also had a few extra days to prepare for this game compared to the Bills. That will help Heinicke. The “mini-bye” should also help a Washington defense that’s gotten off to a surprisingly slow start. This was one of the best defenses in the league a year ago. I know Buffalo scored five touchdowns last week, but three of those drives were 52 yards or shorter. Josh Allen is completing just 56% of his passes so far and is 27th in yards. The Bills’ offensive line was overwhelmed against the Steelers and the Football Team is capable of doing the same. Washington is 4-1 ATS its L5 games as a dog, so this role suits them well. They’ve won three of those five games outright. Take the points. 8* Washington |
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09-26-21 | Cardinals v. Jaguars +8 | Top | 31-19 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Urban Meyer is looking for answers right now as he’s off to an 0-2 start in his professional head coaching career. Jacksonville has lost 17 games in a row going back to last season, the last six all coming by double digits. Now virtually all of that predates Meyer’s tenure here. However, the legendary college coach can certainly ill-afford a third straight DD loss. Predictably, the public is all over the other side (Arizona) in this matchup but I’m seeing some value with the home dog getting more than a touchdown. Take the points. I understand that taking Jacksonville right now may cause you to hold your nose. But the idea of Arizona laying this many points on the road should bolster your confidence. It’s extremely rare to find the Cardinals as this size of a road favorite. Going all the way back to 1993, it’s happened only TWO times! Situationally, it’s not a great spot for the Cards either as this is their second trip to the Southeast in the first three weeks and they’ve got a big division road game next week at the Rams. There’s no denying how good Kyler Murray has looked in the first two games, but the Cardinals were very lucky to defeat Minnesota 34-33 last week. The Vikings missed a “chip shot” field goal on the final play of the game to seal the deal. I had the Vikes plus the points (they obviously covered) as Arizona dropped to 3-10 ATS its L13 games as a favorite in any setting. The Jags fall into several key angles that are 60% ATS or better, long term. 8* Jacksonville |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
10* Under Texans/Panthers (8:20 ET): Houston is going into Thursday night with a backup QB, Davis Mills, who I saw Sunday and wasn’t the least bit impressive. Just the third QB to be drafted out of Stanford in my lifetime, the rookie played the entire 2H vs. Cleveland and completed just 8 of 18 pass attempts for 102 yards and a touchdown. Now, on a short week, he’s going to be facing a much better defense and it’s really difficult to envision a scenario where the Texans put up a lot of points. Carolina is a surprising 2-0 after holding New Orleans to seven points and 128 total yards on Sunday. Remember that the Saints put up 38 points, led by Jameis Winston’s five touchdown passes, in Week 1 vs. Green Bay. So that was a really impressive performance last week by Matt Rhule’s defense. This is the first time the Panthers have ranked #1 in the league in total defense since Week 10 of the 2017 season. Thus far they have given up an average of just 190 YPG and a total of only 21 points. But with Sam Darnold as their starting QB, there’s still questions about this Carolina offense. The Panthers have covered seven straight road games, but are also 0-6 ATS their L6 Thursday games, so something will have to give here. On the same note, the Panthers are 5-0 Under their L5 regular season games while Houston is 4-0 Over its L4. Considering how few points I expect the Texans to score here, Under has to be the call as you’ve got a rookie QB making his 1st career start (on a short week!) against the league’s top rated defense. The Over is 6-0 in NFL primetime games so far this season. We’re due for an Under. 10* Under Texans/Panthers |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers -11.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (8:15 ET): The Packers were rightfully skewered for a horrendous opening week loss to the Saints. They lost 38-3 (were 3.5-point favorites for the neutral site contest) and gained a meager 229 yards of total offense in the process. But this week they are facing the Lions, one of the worst teams in all of football and I say Aaron Rodgers bounces back with a huge primetime showing. The L11 times they have hosted Detroit, the Pack are 9-2 SU with Rodgers throwing 21 TDs and 4 INTs. Green Bay is also looking to win its ninth straight home opener tonight and they should do so by a wide margin. Lay the points. Detroit did cover the spread in Week 1, but they were very fortunate to do so. At home, they trailed the 49ers 41-17 in the fourth quarter before two quick touchdowns (both followed by two-point conversions) allowed them to sneak through the proverbial “back door.” That made me happy as I took the points with the Lions. But again, it was very lucky as the second touchdown came after an onside kick recovery. Rodgers should have no problem shredding a Lions defense which gave up 8.0 yards per play to San Francisco and is now without CB Jeff Okudah for the remainder of the season (ACL). The Lions won’t be favored in a single game this season and they are 31st in my power ratings (ahead of only Houston). Obviously, I dropped Green Bay after last week’s performance, but they still have massive edges on both sides of the ball in this NFC North matchup. Perhaps we can just chalk up last week to a case of Rodgers not playing in the preseason or the fact the game was moved to a neutral site because of Hurricane Ida. Whatever reason you want to go with, I’m calling it a “one week aberration” as last year’s MVP should bounce back with a huge performance tonight. The Packers are 16-5 ATS off an ATS loss and 8-1 ATS off a SU loss. 10* Green Bay |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | Top | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
9* Baltimore (8:20 ET): Even though the Ravens are on a short week and lost their opener, my power rankings still call this SNF matchup with the Chiefs a pick ‘em. There are definitely some issues with Baltimore right now. Injuries at the running back position plus a defense that doesn’t look quite as good as last year are the primary ones. But lest we forget how good this team has been the last few seasons. They are 9-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2018 season. That includes 6-1 with Lamar Jackson as the starter and the Ravens are 5-2 straight up in those seven games. The only previous time that Jackson was a home dog came against New England in ‘19. Baltimore won that game 37-20. Kansas City has been living very dangerously going back to the second half of last season. They are 2-10 ATS their last 12 games, excluding preseason. It was only a four-point win at home over Cleveland last week, 33-29, where the Chiefs’ defense gave up a horrendous 8.2 yards per play. I played the Browns plus the points in that one, a wire to wire cover that saw them leading outright for most of the game, including 22-10 at the half. Were it not for a big special teams play (Browns’ punter mishandled the snap and ended up turning the ball over deep in his own territory), KC likely does not win that game. Had they lost, my guess is this spread would have been a lot closer to ‘pick em. Getting back to the Chiefs “living dangerously,” nine of their last ten wins (regular season and playoffs) have been by six points or less. That kind of good luck in close games is bound to regress eventually and I’m not going to be surprised at all when they lose a couple of close ones this season. While the Ravens are 0-3 SU vs. KC the L3 seasons, two of those games were decided by five points or less and one went to overtime. I think people are writing off Baltimore far too quickly. They are certainly able to win this game, so take the points. 9* Baltimore |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (4:05 ET): I know that the Vikings have a banged up defense going into Arizona this week. And that the Cardinals were incredibly impressive in torching the Titans 38-13 in Week 1. But Minnesota is certainly capable of moving the ball as well. They gained over 400 yards in an OT loss to the Bengals in Week 1. Losing that game as three-point favorites, the Vikes have now failed to cover eight straight in the regular season. That’s the longest active ATS losing streak in the league. But I still believe this team is going to be improved in 2021. So take the points as I’m anticipating an outright upset here. How can I still be so confident in the Vikings improving? Well, as I wrote last week, this team was incredibly unlucky in a number of key areas last year. Special teams and lack of success on third/fourth downs were the biggest culprits in addition to a defense slipping to 29th in yards allowed. The kicking game and late down success rate can vary wildly from year to year. The defensive ranking was very uncharacteristic for a Zimmer-coached team. So that stuff is going to improve. The offense will still be good with Kirk Cousins (351 yards LW) and Dalvin Cook running the show. Minnesota has covered five straight times vs. Arizona. The Cardinals won SU as a dog in Week 1, but now they are favorites, a role that they are just 3-9 ATS in the previous two seasons. Not only that, they have a losing SU record (5-7) as chalk. Kyler Murray is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite in his career. The Vikings defense, even banged up, is better than the Titans’. I’ve never been sold on Cardinals’ HC Kliff Kingsbury’s in-game decision making. The Vikings were called for a ton of 1H penalties last week, which shouldn’t be repeated. They have only been a dog for two of those eight straight ATS losses and those games came at Tampa and New Orleans. Arizona is not on that level. 10* Minnesota |
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09-19-21 | Falcons +13 v. Bucs | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
9* Atlanta (4:05 ET): Underdogs in division games are generally a solid bet the first five weeks of the NFL season. Such teams have cashed over 60% of the time going back to 2006. Double digit dogs in divisional matchups tend to always catch my eye as more often than not you get closer games than expected when the opponents are familiar with one another. So I’ll take a flier on Atlanta here despite the fact they were blown out at home last week, 32-6 by Philadelphia. The Falcons have covered seven of the last eight times they’ve gotten 10 or more points from the oddsmakers. The defending Super Bowl Champs nearly lost the season opener, needing a late drive from Tom Brady to set up the game-winning field goal. Not only did Tampa Bay barely escape against Dallas last Thursday, but HC Bruce Arians is 0-4 ATS all-time as a double digit favorite. So that’s another reason to take the points in this NFC South matchup. Then you’ve got the fact that the Bucs turned the ball over four times against the Cowboys while the defense gave up 450 total yards. Now Dallas is more talented than Atlanta, but I think the Falcons will score enough to stay within the number here. TB allowed 30 first downs last week! Now I know what you’re saying. The Falcons only scored SIX points last week. It was a dreadful showing, one that the new coaching staff should be embarrassed about. But Arthur Smith will have his team ready here. Remember that Atlanta still has QB Matt Ryan. Eight of their 12 losses last season were by seven points or less as they were far better than their record. Seven times they lost a game by less than six points. That includes a blown 17-0 halftime lead against Brady and the Bucs. TB will be without starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting and did not tackle well in the first game. 9* Atlanta |
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09-19-21 | Raiders v. Steelers UNDER 47 | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
8* Under Raiders/Steelers (1:00 ET) My Under bet Monday night looked pretty solid for three quarters. There were only 27 points scored between the Ravens and Raiders, a matchup where the oddsmakers’ total was a lofty 50.5. But then came a deluge of 4Q points with the teams doubling the scoring. By the time overtime was needed to settle things, the game had already gone Over. It was the sixth straight regular season game to go Over for Las Vegas, the longest active streak in the league right now. That’s going to be tested this week as they are matched up against one of the better defenses in the league. The Steelers pulled out a surprise 23-16 win in Buffalo last Sunday. The game got off to a rocky start for the Black & Gold when they allowed a long return after the opening kickoff. But they held the Bills to just a field goal on that drive and would allow only one TD the entire game. That was a very good offense they faced, much better than what they’ll see here. At the same time, Pittsburgh’s offense remains a bit of a concern with an aging Ben Roethlisberger behind center. They gained only 252 total yards vs. the Bills and the only offensive TD that they scored came with good starting field goal position. RB Josh Jacobs is out for the Raiders this week, so it’s going to be difficult to move the ball on the ground. Not that I would expect them to be all that effective doing so, even with Jacobs on the field. There was major turnover with the LV offensive line this offseason and we all saw what the Steelers’ defensive front was able to do to Bills QB Josh Allen last week. A short week and early start time do the Raiders no favors either. However, they have had the Steelers’ number in recent years, covering six of the last seven meetings with five outright upsets. So let’s go with the Under as neither team will move the ball all that effectively. 8* Under Raiders/Steelers |
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09-19-21 | 49ers v. Eagles +3 | Top | 17-11 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Few - if any - teams outperformed my Week 1 expectations more than the Eagles did. They went down to Atlanta and thumped the favored Falcons by a score of 32-6. I don’t think anybody saw Philly starting the year 2-0, but we can use that to our advantage here as they host San Francisco in Week 2 and are getting points. My power rankings label this game as a “pick ‘em,” so there’s some clear value right off the bat. Throw in the fact that San Francisco has already endured some key injuries and I’ll definitely be taking the points in this matchup. It was a miracle cover on the Lions last week when I went against the 49ers. Certainly things did not look good for much of the games, especially when SF led 41-17 early in the 4Q. But an incredible series of events led to Detroit sneaking in through “the back door.” The Niners did put up a ton of points & yards (442), but they don’t get to face the lousy Lions defense every week. The Eagles did not allow a single pass play of more than 20 yards against the Falcons. Also concerning for the Niners was their own defense giving up 430 yards in last week’s win. But worst of all was two key players - RB Raheem Mosert and CB Jason Verrett - being lost to season-ending injuries. What a blow to both sides of the ball! HC Kyle Shanahan has to be thinking “not again!” (The 49ers were among the most injured teams LY). Meanwhile, things couldn’t have gone any better for the Eagles in Nick Sirianni’s coaching debut. QB Jalen Hurts had a career-high passer rating. WR Jalen Reagor had a career-high six catches. I also like rookie WR DeVonta Smith, who also had six catches in his first pro game. The defense didn’t allow a point over the last 44 minutes of game time. Might everyone have underrated this Eagles’ team coming into the season? It’s possible and as I wrote last week, San Francisco has not been good as a favorite under Shanahan (now 7-17-2 ATS). 8* Philadelphia |
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09-19-21 | Broncos v. Jaguars +6 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): While no team outperformed my expectations more in Week 1 than Philadelphia did (see elsewhere in 3-pack), no team was a bigger disappointment than Jacksonville. The Jaguars laid a major egg in Urban Meyer’s pro debut, losing 37-21 to who we all expect to be the worst team in the league this season (Houston). The market has quickly turned against Meyer, installing him as a big underdog for his 1st home game. Admittedly, the Jags have lost 16 straight regular season games. But it’s difficult to disregard the fact they were favored on the road last week. I’m taking the points here. Jacksonville may have had the league’s worst record in 2020, but Denver was the only team not to be favored in a single game. Now the Broncos will open as favorites in each of their first three 2021 games, so improvement is clearly expected here. Teddy Bridgewater is the new QB, providing some much needed stability on the offensive side of the ball. The Broncos’ defense was pretty good LY, so I can see why people are bullish on this team. But expecting them to win B2B road games by a significant margin? Not sure I’d be that optimistic. HC Vic Fangio is just 1-4 ATS off his L5 SU wins. Denver won 27-13 at the Giants in Week 1. The lookahead line for this game was Denver -2.5. I don’t think that beating one of the worst teams in the league justifies the number moving so much. The Jacksonville offense did average 5.8 yards per play last week with #1 overall DC Trevor Lawrence attempting 51 passes. Three interceptions really doomed Lawrence in his first NFL start, but I think he’s going to take better care of the ball here. Meyer can’t afford to get blown out again and I think his team will keep this one close. 8* Jacksonville |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team OVER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
10* Over Giants/Football Team (8:20 ET): So with last week’s 27-13 loss to Denver, the Giants have now gone Under in eight consecutive games (dating back to last season, obviously). But this week’s total is even lower than Week 1 and as you can see, the G-Men and Broncos were very close to going Over the total last Sunday. They would have gone Over had both teams not fumbled inside the red zone. The Giants’ fumble proved especially costly as they were only down 17-7 in the second half when QB Daniel Jones gave the ball away. Jones did throw for 267 yards though and account for two scores. Washington is already on its second starting QB as Taylor Heinicke will replace Ryan Fitzpatrick. This move comes not by choice, but rather because of injury. Fitzpatrick will miss as many as eight weeks due to sustaining a hip injury in last week’s 20-16 loss to the Chargers. I thought, given the circumstances, that Heinicke performed admirably last week. He completed 11 of 15 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown. Remember that he started last year’s playoff game against Tampa Bay. While the Football Team went down to the (eventual Super Bowl champion) Bucs that day, 31-23, don’t blame Heinicke. He actually threw for 300+ yards in the loss. The Giants’ defense he faces this week isn’t as good as the Bucs .. or the Chargers for that matter. Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley is listed as questionable, but is expected to play Thursday. Given the Giants’ history against Washington, maybe they don’t even need him. They’ve beaten their old division rival five straight times, the last four all coming with Jones as the starter. Jones has thrown for eight touchdowns in the four wins. Look for him to develop more of a rapport with WR Kenny Golladay, who had four catches for 64 yards last week. Based on them allowing 400+ yards last week against the Chargers, I think it’s fair to say this Washington defense may not be as strong as it was a year ago. These teams are a combined 14-4 their L18 TNF games. 10* Over Giants/Football Team |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team -3.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:20 ET): Both teams are off deflating Week 1 losses. In the case of Washington, not only did they lose the game 20-16 to the LA Chargers, but they also lost starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to a hip injury that could keep him on the shelf for as many as eight weeks. But I think the offense will be in decent hands here with Taylor Heinicke stepping in as the new starter. While this is the first time in his NFL career that Heinicke is going to be a starter for any length of time, remember what he did in last year’s playoff start against Tampa Bay. He threw for 306 yards! Perhaps an even bigger story than Heinicke is that the Football Team is looking to snap a five-game losing streak to the Giants. I think they get their revenge Thursday. Lay the points. As they were for so much of last season, the Giants’ offense looked rather lifeless in a 27-13 loss to Denver in Week 1. They gained only 314 total yards and had just one touchdown before the final play of the game. Now what’s a little misleading there is that there was a drive earlier in the second half where QB Daniel Jones fumbled in the red zone. But still, it wasn’t a great showing from a Giants’ offense that ranked 31st in the league in scoring a year ago. Also concerning was the Giants’ defense surrendered 420 yards to a Broncos’ offense that isn’t exactly regarded as one of the league’s best. They could have given up more points, but the Broncos also had a red zone turnover. I expect Heinicke to be able to move the ball in his first regular season start in three years. I know that the Giants are on a 16-4 ATS run as road underdogs, but eventually Washington is going to beat them. It was rather stunning that the Giants swept last year’ season series given they finished 6-10 while Washington won the division. Granted, they won the division with a 7-9 SU record, but they were definitely a better team than the G-Men in 2020. The last three Giants wins over the Football team have all been by fewer than three points or in overtime. Washington actually outgained them in both games last season. Heinicke played the entire second half last week, completing 11 of 15 passes and won’t be “coming in cold” this time. The Giants’ defense gave up a league worst 5.9 yards per rush last week. Also, had Antonio Gibson not fumbled inside his own 5-yard line last week, Washington probably would have won! 8* Washington |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 51 | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 18 m | Show |
10* Under Ravens/Raiders (8:15 ET): Over the course of training camp, no team was hit harder by injuries than Baltimore. The running back position in particular has suffered some incredible attrition. It began with JK Dobbins to a season-ending knee injury. Then Dobbins’ backup Justice Hill suffered an Achilles injury. With their two top running backs done for the year before a meaningful game had even been played, the Ravens next turned to Gus Edwards. Guess what? He too suffered a serious knee injury in practice Thursday, the same day that CB Marcus Peters also sustained a knee injury! With all these injuries at the RB position, there will be tremendous pressure on QB Lamar Jackson to produce this year. Being that he is a former MVP, it’s not like Jackson is doomed. But Jackson and the offense took a step back in 2020 despite facing a relatively weak set of pass defenses. They dropped down to 27.3 PPG overall and 25.2 on the road. Had it not been for a high success rate on third downs and in the red zone, the offense's numbers probably would have dropped even further. With Ty’Son Edwards and Le’Veon Bell set to be the Ravens’ only available running backs, that dimension of the offense simply will not be as strong as it was in years’ past. Las Vegas will finally get to play in front of fans in Allegiant Stadium (opened last year) Monday night. QB Derek Carr might have a 4-2 SU record on MNF but has posted a 46.0 QBR in those games, which is well below average. One area that I am not really worried about Baltimore is on defense. They allowed only 18.5 PPG last year. The Raiders’ receiving corps is not very good and the running game will probably be worse in 2020 due to the loss of three starting offensive linemen from a year ago. Yes, the Over was 13-3 in LV games last season. But now it’s 2021 and things will be different. 10* Under Ravens/Raiders |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams OVER 46.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
10* Over Bears/Rams (8:25 ET): The Rams went Under in every home game last season (8-0). But with an offense that should be better and a defense that is likely to be worse (compared to last season, that is), I look for that streak to come to an end in Week 1 vs. the Bears. Matthew Stafford is now the QB1 for the Rams, replacing Jared Goff. This is a clear upgrade in my eyes. Stafford lost RB Cam Akers to an injury in the preseason, but the Rams have averaged 32.2 PPG in four season openers under HC Sean McVay. Even with the Bears’ defense being well regarded, look for the Rams to put up points on SNF. Bears HC Matt Nagy has made the curious decision to go with Andy Dalton as his starting QB for the season opener. Everyone in Chicago wants to see Justin Fields, but they’ll have to wait apparently. Dalton’s career record in primetime may not be good, but I do think the Bears will score more than expected in this game. That may sound strange considering the Rams had the top ranked defense in the league a year ago. But down the stretch last season, Nagy got his offense humming. They scored 30+ points in four straight games, something that no other Bears team had ever done and that was with Mitch Trubisky playing quarterback. This is actually the fourth straight season that these teams will be playing in primetime. The home team has won every time with the Rams holding a 2-1 SU/ATS series edge. All three games have stayed Under, none of them seeing more than 34 total points scored. But it’s a new season with new players and I really think it’s going to be different this time around. I don’t think either defense will be as good as last year. The Rams lost four starters on that side of the ball to free agency. The Bears’ secondary is a real weak spot and remember Stafford knows this team well. 10* Over Bears/Rams |
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09-12-21 | Browns +5.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (4:25 ET): This is a rematch from last year’s playoffs. Kansas City won that game 22-17, but it was Cleveland leaving with the cash as 7.5-point underdogs. The Browns aren’t quite as large of a dog this time around, despite the fact they will be facing Patrick Mahomes for a full 60 minutes. If you recall, Mahomes left that playoff game with a concussion, forcing Chad Henne into duty. The Chiefs were lucky to hold on that day, but I don’t think they’ll be as fortunate Sunday as Cleveland looks like a serious contender in 2021 and I give them a great shot at pulling the outright upset. Take the points here. Kansas City won 16 of its 19 games last year, but all anyone remembers is them losing the big one - 31-9 to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV. What you may have forgotten is that the Chiefs were a bad bet down the stretch, failing to cover 9 of their last 11 games. They were extremely fortunate to go 9-0 SU in games decided by seven points or less last season. I think the offensive line is a major question mark entering this season as all five starters are new. Cleveland has one of the better defensive lines in the league and is capable of getting to Mahomes the same way the Bucs did in February. The Browns have not won a season opener since 2004 (0-15-1 SU), so that’s added motivation on top of looking to avenge LY’s playoff loss. Odell Beckham Jr is back healthy, so the offense should be more dynamic. This is not your “older brother’s Browns” any longer as this is one of the few games this year where they will be an underdog. They have the best running game in the league. With the most expensive offense in the league (even with Mayfield still on a team-friendly rookie deal), they are going to put up points. Everyone seems to be assuming the Chiefs are going to roll here, but I think that’s flawed thinking. Look for the Browns to surprise here and prove they are the “real deal.” 8* Cleveland |
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09-12-21 | Vikings -3 v. Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -106 | 43 h 4 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): The Vikings are a team that I’m fairly high on for 2021. Most key indicators say they’ll improve upon LY’s disappointing 7-9 SU finish. It was a clear rebuilding year in 2020. The defense, which lost several key contributors due to the salary cap, slipped all the way down to 29th in scoring. That’s very uncharacteristic for a Mike Zimmer stop unit. The Vikes were also unlucky when it came to special teams and third & fourth down relative to success on early downs. Don’t be surprised to see the defense bounce back this year. The offense should be very good again. A Wild Card is certainly not out of the question for this team. I expect them to open the regular season with a big road win at Cincinnati. The Bengals were 4-11-1 SU last season and finished dead last in the AFC North. They were the only team from their division that didn’t make the playoffs. Losing QB Joe Burrow early in the season didn’t help. But it’s not like there’s a ton of talent on hand for Zac Taylor, who seems to be one of the weaker head coaches in the NFL. Burrow is set to return for Week 1 and has a strong group of receivers. But he only took a few snaps in the preseason and it remains to be seen how he looks against “real competition” after suffering a serious injury. There are eight new starters in Cincinnati as well. I would be shocked if the Bengals didn’t finish in last place again this season. This could be Taylor’s last season. Minnesota comes into 2021 on the longest ATS losing streak in the league. They failed to cover their final seven games last year. But Zimmer is 14-8 ATS all-time in the regular season as a road favorite. As many of you know, I’m not a big fan of taking road favorites in the NFL. But this looks like a line we can exploit in Week 1. If I’m right about the Vikings’ improving, then this is a game they should win. Kirk Cousins threw for 4,265 yards and 35 touchdowns LY and has a tremendous group of skill position players around him, including RB Dalvin Cook, who should have no problem cutting through a Bengals defense that gave up a league-worst 5.2 YPC “up the gut” last season. The Bengals have won only one of Burrow’s nine starts. 10* Minnesota |
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09-12-21 | 49ers v. Lions +9 | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 43 h 4 m | Show |
8* Detroit (1:00 ET): The Lions figure to be one of the more “unpopular” sides in Week 1. Very little is being expected in Dan Campbell’s first season on the job and sure enough the team has the lowest projected win total in the NFC (second lowest overall). But this is a big spread for the opening week of the season, especially considering the Lions are playing at home. I’m well aware that San Francisco should be one of the league’s most improved teams for 2021, but that was built into a line that has since been bet up even higher. The 49ers are just the third team in the last 20 seasons to be a Week 1 road favorite of at least seven points coming off a losing season. The previous two both lost their games outright! Not saying Detroit will get the SU win here, but it is also worth noting that SF has lost outright the last five times it has been a favorite. Kyle Shanahan is just 7-16-2 ATS as a favorite as the HC of the 49ers, including 1-7-1 ATS when laying at least a touchdown. So all things considered, this line appears to be a case of “putting the cart before the horse.” Again, I expect the Niners to be improved and win double digit games. Basically everything - from injuries to turnover margin - went wrong for them in the 2020 season. But that doesn’t mean they’re ready to go out and win by more than one score on the road in Week 1. The Lions have a new QB in Jared Goff. He’s viewed by most as a downgrade from the player he was traded for, Matthew Stafford. But don’t be surprised if Goff, who has started a Super Bowl before, exceeds his relatively low expectations. Campbell’s defense should absolutely be better this year (how can it not be?). I think the underdog is going to play “loose” in the season opener while the Niners may very well be overconfident. Take the points. 8* Detroit |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 288 h 31 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (6:30 ET): I opened my analysis of the AFC Championship Game by pointing to the fact that there was a much different “feeling” surrounding the Chiefs going into the penultimate game of the season. While last year’s Super Bowl winning team closed on a 9-0 ATS run, this year’s edition was just 1-8 ATS its L9 going into last week. And even that one cover came with a bit of an “asterisk.” Many (myself included) were able to grab the Saints +3.5 in that game, which ended up being a 32-29 KC victory. Nevertheless, I still laid the points with the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, so I was quite happy to see them dispose of the Bills 38-24. But I think Super Bowl LV is going to be a different story. There’s only so many times that a team can continually dig itself out of early holes. If you’re wondering how I can go from taking to fading the Chiefs, the answer is pretty simple. They’re facing a better team in the Super Bowl than they did in the AFC Championship. In fact, I believe the better team is getting points in Super Bowl LV. At least that’s what the power ratings say. I’m certainly not going to pass up this opportunity to take the points with a team that’s now 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season, including the B2B upsets of New Orleans and Green Bay to get here. This will be just the second time Tom Brady is an underdog in the Super Bowl. The first was all the way back in 2002, his 1st SB appearance, when the Patriots upset the Rams as 14-point underdogs. Brady is now an incredible 41-17-1 ATS all-time as a dog in his career. This is a rematch from the regular season, a game that was won by the Chiefs 27-24. They didn’t cover though (were -5). It just so happens that was the rare occasion where KC got off to a hot start (led 17-0 after 1Q). But they let the Bucs in through the back door. Getting off to good starts has NOT happened for the Chiefs in the playoffs though as they’ve fallen behind by nine points or more in four of their last five postseason contests. Do not forget this game is being played in Tampa Bay’s home stadium. That’s not as big of an edge as it would be in any other year, but it’s still an edge. Another key is that Chiefs could be without BOTH starting offensive tackles. We just saw the Bucs tremendous defensive front (#1 in the league against the run) dominate a banged up Packers offensive line in the NFC Championship Game. I think it must be pointed out that the loss to the Chiefs came right before Tampa Bay’s (very) late season bye. Since then, they are 7-0 SU and averaging 34.2 PPG. They are a better team now than when they faced the Chiefs the 1st time. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs UNDER 56 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 103 h 38 m | Show |
8* Under Chiefs/Bucs (6:30 ET): So when these teams met in the regular season, they combined for 961 yards and all nine scoring drives went for at least 64 yards. Both offenses averaged 7.5 yards per play. Yet they finished with only 51 total points. That’s still a lot, but wasn’t enough to go Over a total of 59.0. While the stakes are much higher the second time around, the total is lower. But it’s still the second highest O/U line in Super Bowl history. The only one larger was four years ago when the Patriots played the Falcons. That game would have stayed Under had it not been for the Pats rallying from a 28-3 deficit to force overtime. Since ‘95, no SB w/ an OU line of 54.0 or higher has gone Over in regulation (5-0 Under). This game is being played in the Buccaneers’ home stadium. That doesn’t mean as much as it would in a “normal” year, but it’s worth noting the Bucs averaged fewer points per game at home than they did on the road this season. Those eight games averaged 52.4 PPG. Chiefs’ road games averaged more total points than their home games (54.6 PPG), but that’s still just below the O/U line here. Going back to the regular season matchup (which was here in Tampa), the Chiefs scored 17 first quarter points and Tyreke Hill had 13 catches for 269 yards. None of that will happen again. The Bucs are #1 in the league against the run and their defense really dominated the Packers up front in the NFC Championship Game. Like Green Bay, Kansas City is dealing with injuries along the offensive line. Obviously, everyone is going to expect a shootout on Sunday and will want to bet the Over, but like last year I’m going Under. The last two Super Bowls have gone Under. The Under is 22-9 since 2015 in Tom Brady starts where the total was 50+. 8* Under Chiefs/Bucs |
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01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 75 h 26 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (6:40 ET): The Chiefs are not only in, but hosting the AFC Championship Game for a third consecutive season. However, it certainly FEELS a lot different than last year when they rode a 7-game ATS win streak into the season’s penultimate game and defeated Tennessee 35-24 here at Arrowhead Stadium. That team would of course go on to win the Super Bowl and end the season on a 9-0 ATS win streak. This year, the Chiefs come into the AFC Title Game on a 1-8 ATS run and that one cover comes with an asterisk as some (myself included) were able to grab the Saints +3.5 in that game, which ended up being a 32-29 KC victory. Last week, they had to hold on to beat the Browns 22-17 (closed -7.5 most places) as Patrick Mahomes left the game with a concussion. I’m operating on the assumption that Mahomes is going to play Sunday. It’s not as if Kansas City hasn’t had to overcome some attrition before. In last year’s playoff run, they trailed by double digits in all three games! Buffalo is in its first AFC Championship Game since 1994 when they were in the final year of their infamous four consecutive Super Bowl appearances (0-4), led by Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and Bruce Smith. They are viewed as the “up and comers” in this matchup, but the reality is the Bills are a bit lucky to be here as they’ve been outgained in both playoff games, 472-397 by the Colts and 340-220 by the Ravens. Both games swung on goal-to-go decisions by the opposing team. Indianapolis failed to score a TD on 4th down while Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson threw a “pick-six” in the end zone when the game was still 10-3. Remember that the Chiefs got a first round bye, so that and the home field are two key advantages they have here. Back in Week 6, they won in Buffalo 26-17 as 5.5-point favorites, so we’re getting a ton of value with this line. I took the Chiefs in the first half of that game and won. Here I’ll play the full game as Mahomes has won 11 straight starts and is 26-14 ATS as a single-digit favorite. 10* Kansas City |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers UNDER 51.5 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -103 | 72 h 50 m | Show |
9* Under Bucs/Packers (3:05 ET): Tampa Bay was able to eradicate some regular season “demons” last week, upsetting New Orleans 30-20 in the Divisional Round. I had the Under, which won by a far narrower margin (total closed at 53), and am now 2-0 in Bucs’ games this postseason. In the Wild Card Round, I faded them, laying a big number at Washington. Now they go from facing a team they lost to twice in the regular season to one that they defeated (albeit at home). Back on October 18th, the Bucs were my 10* Game of the Month as they crushed the Packers 38-10 as a 2.5-point home dog. You wouldn’t have known Green Bay was facing the best defense in the league last week as they rolled up 32 points in a two-touchdown victory over the Rams. Aaron Rodgers directed the Packers offense to 484 total yards, although the game was close (25-18) until he hit Allen Lazard with a 58-yard TD pass with just under seven minutes left. The Packers have now won seven in a row, scoring 30 or more points in all but one of those victories. Unlike the game in Tampa back in Week 6, they absolutely deserve to be favored here. I was tempted to go with the Bucs this week, but considering they were underdogs at home for the first meeting, it could be argued that the value is on the other side of this NFC Championship Game matchup. Plus, as happy as I was to cash my 10* Game of the Month in October, that game was dramatically impacted by turnovers as the Bucs had a rare “pick-six” off Rodgers and a second INT was returned to the GB 2-yard line, setting up another easy TD. You could say the same about turnovers impacting last week’s win over the Saints where they forced FOUR, three of which were almost immediately converted into touchdowns as they started in “plus territory”. (They kneeled after the 4th, a drive which also started in Saints territory). But at the same time, it can’t be discounted that this Bucs’ defense (which is #1 in the league vs. the run) held GB to a season-low 201 total yards in that first meeting. It’s expected to be cold with a 50% chance of snow Sunday afternoon in Lambeau. 9* Under Bucs/Packers |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints UNDER 52 | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 5 m | Show |
8* Under Bucs/Saints (6:40 ET): The two regular season meetings between these teams produced 57 and 41 points. New Orleans won both handily, 34-23 and 38-3. The amount of scoring that took place in the first meeting (which was all the way back in Week 1) was a bit misleading when you consider the Saints got a defensive TD (pick-six) and two other scoring drives began inside the 35-yard line following TB turnovers.That’s why I took the Under in the rematch on November 8th, which cashed easily. The O/U line isn’t much different here and while the final score may not end up as lopsided, the number of total points will be similar. Going into that second meeting, New Orleans had a 7-0 Over record on the season. Since then, they’ve gone Under in 7 of 10 games including last week’s 21-9 Wild Card win against Chicago. The only TD the Saints allowed came on the final play of the game, a “garbage time” score if there ever was one. They held the Bears to just 239 total yards. While the Bucs’ offense is clearly superior to that of the Bears, note that two of the Bucs’ three lowest yardage games this season came against the Saints. They averaged just 252 YPG in the two losses. As I mentioned in last week’s analysis, New Orleans is top five in total and scoring defense this year. But Tampa Bay has a good defense too. In fact, they are #1 in the league at stopping the run, which comes in handy when facing Alvin Kamara. While they won easily, it’s not like the Saints’ offense was moving up and down the field last week. They’ve been held below 300 total yards four different times this season and three of those were with Drew Brees starting under center. One of them was in Week 1. The Saints’ last four playoff games have all gone Under. These teams are obviously familiar with one another and I expect a relatively low-scoring third meeting. 8* Under Bucs/Saints |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs UNDER 57.5 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 51 h 30 m | Show |
10* Under Browns/Chiefs (3:05 ET): The expectation here is for this to be a very high-scoring game. Just look at the total. It’s not only the highest of the weekend, but has a good shot to close as the highest total for ANY Divisional Round matchup in history! Even for the Chiefs, the current number would be the highest for any game this season. This is all due to Cleveland’s shocking performance last week where they upset the Steelers 48-37 in Pittsburgh. But as I’ll get into, there were plenty of “extenuating circumstances” that led to that high score. I believe this number is simply too high and I’m going Under. Last Sunday was quite a special night in Cleveland. The Browns won their first playoff game in more than a quarter century and did so in improbable fashion. They were up 28-0 at the end of the first quarter! How could that happen? Well, simply put, the Steelers imploded. On the very first play from scrimmage they snapped the ball into the end zone, allowing the Browns to recover and score a TD. After that, Ben Roethlisberger threw two 1Q interceptions, setting the Browns up in “plus-territory.” One drive began on the Steelers’ 15-yard line. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is not going to play as poorly as Big Ben did. Also, the Chiefs’ defense is pretty good! They allow just 22.3 PPG at home. While no one expects the Browns’ offense to duplicate LW’s performance, there is (rightly) some concern about the defense’s ability to stop Mahomes. Fortunately, they will be getting back two defensive backs - Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson - from the COVID list. The fact the Browns gave up so many yards passing last week is a bit misleading as Pittsburgh had no choice but to pass on almost every down. The Chiefs have not scored more than 33 points in any of their previous six games and the last time Mahomes was on the field, they scored just 17 against a not good Falcons defense. The Under isn’t just 15-7 the Browns L22 after scoring 30+ their previous game, it’s also 21-10 if they gave up 30+ in their previous game. 10* Under Browns/Chiefs |
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01-16-21 | Ravens +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -100 | 76 h 12 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (8:05 ET): Two of the league’s hottest teams square off Saturday night in the Divisional Round. I’m betting big on the Ravens. While Buffalo is on a seven-game win streak, Baltimore has won six in a row and covered seven straight. The Bills just had their own eight-game ATS win snapped last week. Though their fans could hardly care as the franchise FINALLY got the proverbial “monkey off its back” by winning in the postseason for the first time in a quarter century. But they were a bit lucky to win considering the Colts outgained them 472-397. In fact, all nine Indianapolis drives ended in Bills’ territory! The Bills’ defense forced only two punts the entire game and both were in the 1Q! Baltimore had to overcome an early 1Q deficit to win its Wild Card Game, which was sweet revenge after what happened against Tennessee in LY’s playoffs. But I thought the Ravens were pretty clearly the better team last week. They outgained the Titans nearly 2:1 (401-209). With the Bills’ defense struggling for much of last week, I expect the Ravens offense to put up a big number here. Their strength is running the ball and that happens to the weakness of the Bills’ defense which has allowed 150+ rush yards five times this season. Lamar Jackson and company have had no issues scoring down the stretch, averaging 34.3 PPG during the six-game win streak. The Ravens ended up leading the league in scoring differential in the regular season. So this will likely come down to Baltimore’s defense being able to stop Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense. I think they’re up for the challenge. Allen’s two top receivers (Diggs, Beasley) are still battling injuries and RB Moss is out, leaving Devin Singletary as the primary ball carrier. With the weather forecast calling for snow, that’s a benefit to the team that likes to run more (which is Baltimore). I do NOT think the Ravens should be underdogs here, but I’ll gladly take the points as they are 9-2 ATS their L11 as dogs, including seven outright wins. Jackson is 14-3-2 ATS on the road. 10* Baltimore |
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01-16-21 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 18-32 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (4:35 ET): A majority of the headlines referred to the Rams’ Wild Card victory over the Seahawks as “shocking.” But it was no shock to me. I backed them. While it was a little surprising to see them score 30 points with Jared Goff being called into emergency duty, I specifically cited the Rams’ defense as a reason they might pull the upset. I don’t think people realize how good this team, specifically its defense, really is. The Rams had the best yards per play differential in the league during the regular season and their defense was #1 in scoring, total yards allowed and passing yards allowed. Going into the Divisional Round, we know Goff will be starting and I’ll take the Rams plus the points again. Green Bay defied regression to go 13-3 SU for the second straight regular season. Aaron Rodgers is the likely MVP this year. To be clear, when I talk about “defying regression,” I’m speaking of the fact the Pack went an extremely fortunate 9-1 SU in one-score games a year ago. That usually guarantees a fewer # of total wins the following season, but it didn’t here and that’s largely because of the play of Rodgers. Green Bay had a much better YTD point differential in 2020 (+140) than they did in ‘19 (+63). They come into the playoffs on a real roll, winners of six straight games, all by seven points or more. But only one of those victories came against a team that finished with a winning record. I’m not going to put much stock in Goff’s 0-2 record when gametime temperature is 32 degrees or lower as that is a very small sample-size. Like they have much of the season, it’ll be the defense carrying the Rams anyway. Aaron Donald is going to play, which is key. So is the fact Jalen Ramsey will be charged with covering Rodgers’ favorite target Davante Adams. The Rams’ defense has allowed more than 24 points in just three games this season. This team is 5-2 ATS and STRAIGHT UP as an underdog and is a perfect 6-0 ATS/SU coming off a division game. Even with the bye, I don’t think this spread should be higher than five points. Take the points. 8* LA Rams |
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01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints UNDER 47.5 | Top | 9-21 | Win | 100 | 52 h 29 m | Show |
10* Under Bears/Saints (4:40 ET): For four consecutive weeks, Chicago put up 30+ points (something no Bears team had done since the 1960’s) with Mitch Trubisky at the helm. But then came last week’s disappointing effort vs. the Packers where they were held to just 16. Thanks to Arizona also losing, the Bears were able to “back in” to the playoffs as the 7-seed in the NFC, but I don’t think I’m exaggerating here when I call this the weakest team in the field (yes, even weaker than Washington). They face a VERY tall order in the Wild Card Round, having to travel to the Mercedes Benz Superdome to face the Saints. When looking at that run of 30+ point games, it’s very important to consider just WHO the Bears faced: Detroit, Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville. None of those are playoff teams and the defenses were among the worst in the league. Facing a good defense for the 1st time in a month, the Bears got held to not just 16 points, but only 4.8 yards per play. The Saints defense that Trubisky and company will face this week is one of the league’s best as it ranks top five in both scoring and yards allowed. Chicago is 1-6 SU vs. winning teams this season, averaging just 16 PPG. So last week, sadly, was nothing new. The Saints offense is expected to get both RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas back, which sounds exciting. But the Bears’ run defense is tops in the league in terms of success rate and Kamara may not be operating at full strength after missing a week due to quarantine. While New Orleans is still thought of as this “offensive machine,” they operate at a very slow pace (29th in time between plays) and I think they know it’s not going to take many points to win here. Their L3 playoff games have all stayed Under. 10* Under Bears/Saints |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +9 | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 42 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:15 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. Tampa Bay is a big road favorite here, which is actually NOT a great spot historically as the only three previous road teams to be favored by six or more all lost outright, including the now infamous 2010 Saints, who were facing a 7-9 division winner (Seattle) that no one thought “deserved” to make the playoffs. Washington is only 7-9 and we all (rightfully) mocked how bad the NFC East was this year. But the truth of the matter is that the Football Team is better than its record. They had a +6 point differential in the regular season, which is better than two other playoff teams - Chicago & Cleveland. Also, they were 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in starts made by Alex Smith, who hasn’t been an underdog of more than seven points since guiding the Chiefs to an upset win in New England back in Week 1 of the 2017 season. The last two 7-9 (SU) teams to make the playoffs both won in the Wild Card Round. This is the Saturday night game and let’s not forget Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS in primetime this season. They lost (outright) to the Bears, Saints (badly) and the Rams. The only primetime win was by two points against the Giants, Washington’s division rival. I believe the Football Team has the kind of defense (tremendous front four) that can give Tom Brady trouble. Plus, Brady’s best receiver (Mike Evans) may not even play (‘gametime call’). This Washington defense is #2 in the league in yards allowed and #3 in scoring. The Football Team’s last five losses have all been by seven points or less. 8* Washington |
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01-09-21 | Rams +3.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (4:40 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. While the QB situation is in flux, I don’t think most are aware of just how good this Rams defense is or the fact the team’s YPP (yards per play) differential is among the very best in the league this season. I’m taking the points here. This Rams’ defense led the league in both scoring (18.5 PPG) and yards allowed (282.1 per game) this season. They were also #1 against the pass. Opposing offenses scored a TD on only 16% of their possessions during the regular season. While you may think Seattle QB Russell Wilson is set “to cook” here, you better think again as he went just 2 of 16 on passes of 30+ yards the final eight reg season games, including 1 of 6 vs. the Rams, who are the best in the league at limiting such completions (just 14.8%). Wilson has NOT thrown for more than 200 yards in any of the L3 games, a stretch which has seen the Seahawks get outgained, something that was the case over the course of the season as well! The more interesting battle here seems to be whomever the Rams QB is vs. the improved Seattle defense. Rams HC Sean McVay won’t announce whether its going to be Jared Goff or John Wolford until right before kickoff, but obviously he and the team knows. Seattle doesn’t, which is an obvious disadvantage. The Seahawks’ defense went from being the worst in the league over the first eight games to the best over the final eight games, which is quite the transformation. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle. Most Seahawks’ games end up being close, so I like the points with a Rams team that has covered four of its last five as a road dog of three points or less. 8* LA Rams |
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01-09-21 | Colts +7 v. Bills | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 32 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis (1:05 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. Did you know the Colts were an underdog just ONE time during the regular season? That was when they were +1 in Cleveland of all places. They are the ONLY team in the league that wasn’t +3 or higher in any game in 2020. Buffalo comes into the playoffs red-hot, having won six straight (all by 10 pts or greater) and 9 of their last 10. Their only loss in those L10 games came on the now-famous “Hail Murray” vs. Arizona. The Bills have covered the spread in each of their L8 games, which is the longest ATS win streak entering the postseason since the 2011 Saints. Only three teams in history have carried a longer ATS win streak into the postseason and all of them came prior to 1995, which is the last time the Bills franchise won a playoff game. While the Bills are deservedly big favorites to win here, there’s a lot of pressure on them in what is their first home playoff game since ‘96. I don’t think most people fully appreciate how good this Colts team is. They played just one bad game all season (vs. Tennessee) and that was when they had a number of key defensive players out. This defense is top 10 in the league in both scoring and yards, having spent a majority of the year at/near the top. QB Rivers is 6-2 ATS in his career as a playoff underdog, including 4-0 when getting seven or more points. I think this spread should be several points lower and the Colts are absolutely capable of winning outright. They’ve won six of eight and in one of those losses (Pittsburgh) they blew a DD lead. Buffalo’s top two receivers (Diggs, Beasley) are both dealing w/ injuries. 10* Indianapolis |
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01-03-21 | Seahawks v. 49ers +6.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 53 h 53 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): Realistically, Seattle (11-4) doesn’t have much to play for here, so I don’t like the idea of them laying this many points on the road in Week 17. Yes, they still do have an outside shot at earning homefield advantage and the NFC’s #1 seed, but that would require not only a win, but losses by BOTH Green Bay & New Orleans. The latter part of that equation is rather unlikely. Some “scoreboard watching” could lead to the Seahawks potentially “shutting it down” in the second half, making the points look even more attractive in this NFC West matchup. San Francisco proved last week that they are not going down without a fight in 2020. I took them as a dog against the Cardinals and they delivered an outright win over a team fighting for its playoff life. Since the start of last season, the 49ers are now 9-3 ATS as underdogs with eight outright victories. Three of their six SU wins this season have come against the division (2 vs. LA, 1 vs. ARI) and there is nothing more that they’d like to do here than beat a team they have struggled mightily against ever since Jim Harbaugh left. Since 2012, the Niners are just 4-14 ATS vs. the Seahawks. This seems like a really nice value on SF considering they were just a 1-point underdog up in Seattle back in Week 8. They lost that game 37-27, but still I can’t see justifying the spread getting this much bigger on the road. Seattle has failed to cover five straight away from home and seven of their wins this season have come in one possession games. I know that it’s a “raw deal” for the Niners having to play their “home games” in Arizona and they’ve yet to win as the “home team” here. But they did just win on this field last Saturday. This will be their 4th time playing here in the last 5 weeks. As I said last week, the Niners are better than their record as they’ve outgained opponents on the season. CJ Beathard is a better QB than Nick Mullens, especially with TE George Kittle back on the field. 10* San Francisco |
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01-03-21 | Titans v. Texans +7.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 53 m | Show |
9* Houston (4:25 ET): The 4-11 Texans have been relegated to spoilers here, but don’t expect them to “tank it” against a hated division rival that they could potentially knock out of the playoffs. Also, Houston does not have any Draft incentive being that they’ve already traded away next year’s 1st round pick (big mistake!). DeShaun Watson and JJ Watt are still both on this team and seven of the Texans’ losses this season have come in one-score games. I expect them to remain competitive at home on Sunday and this is an inflated line due to the Titans needing to win the game (my power ratings say the line should be +3.5). We know about Tennessee's success since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB (20-4-1 ATS!), but they got drilled last Sunday night up in Green Bay. That 40-14 defeat sets up a scenario where the Titans basically must win to get in the playoffs/win the AFC South. A loss would be devastating as the Colts (also 10-5 SU) are hosting Jacksonville and will almost certainly win that game. Oddsmakers are well aware of the situation and have inflated this number knowing the public will want to bet the team in the “must-win” spot. Something to remember is that these teams went to overtime in Tennessee back in Week 6. The Titans were very lucky to cover the spread in that game as they scored a TD (rather than kick a FG) to win 42-36 as a 3.5-point favorite. Now they are an even larger favorite on the road, so there’s obvious value to be had here with a Houston team that is 14-7 ATS vs. Tennessee since 2010. Something else worth noting is that Houston has outgained its opponents this season while Tennessee has not. The Titans are rarely road favorites of this size, which helps explain the ridiculous ATS record. Take the points. 9* Houston |
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01-03-21 | Packers v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 35-16 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
8* Chicago (4:25 ET): Green Bay has seemingly defied regression this season and is now in position to earn home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs. They looked incredibly impressive last week on SNF, destroying a good Tennessee team 40-14 at Lambeau Field. Last year’s Packers went 13-3, but had a point differential of only +63. They benefited from an extremely fortunate 9-1 SU record in one-score games. I thought that record in close games virtually guaranteed fewer wins this season (it usually does), but here we are with the Pack at 12-3 heading into the final game of the season, which finds them favored in Chicago. The Bears are just looking to make the playoffs, something that admittedly seemed very far-fetched a month ago. But a 3-game win streak that has seen them average 36.7 PPG has them in control of their own destiny. A win here would clinch a playoff berth. Now beating the Packers has been a problem for Matt Nagy’s team, who lost 41-25 in Lambeau the Sunday after Thanksgiving. But since then, with Mitch Trubisky back in at QB, this has been a different offense/team. The Bears’ offense has put up 30+ points in four consecutive games, something they hadn’t done going back to the 1960’s! My prediction of WL regression for the Packers can still hold true with a loss here. That piqued my interest a bit. So did the way the line has moved this week. There can be no denying that the Bears are a much different team than they were the first go-around with Green Bay. While the Packers will be motivated to earn the 1st round bye, the Bears won’t be lacking for motivation either. Trubisky is trying to earn a new contract, Nagy is trying to save his job and the team is trying to get into the playoffs by beating a rival they are 3-18 SU against in the L21 meetings. Take the points with the home dog here. Green Bay just lost its starting LT to a season-ending injury on Thursday, which is certainly significant. 8* Chicago |
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12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots +7 | Top | 38-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* New England (8:15 ET): There are two six-game streaks on the line coming into this game. Buffalo has covered six in a row. New England has gone Under in six in a row. I’ll be fading the former here as I just think that this is far too many points for the Bills to be laying. My own personal power ratings have this number much shorter. In fact, those ratings say this line should be under a field goal. So I’ll gladly take the points in this matchup as the Patriots are back in Foxboro for the 1st time in a month (they are 4-2 SU in home games this season). Assuming this line doesn’t close lower than -6.5, it will be the most points the Bills have laid to the Patriots since the glory days of Jim Kelly (1993). Quite frankly, being favored against New England is a position Buffalo is completely unaccustomed to being in. They were favored in the first meeting this season, but were just -4 at home. They won that game 24-21 when Cam Newton fumbled inside the red zone on the potential game tying/winning drive. That’s the last game the Bills failed to cover btw! It was the 1st time the Bills had been favored against the Pats since Week 1 of 2003! New England has not gotten at least seven points in an AFC East game since 2001 at Miami. It’s the first time they’ve been a home dog of 7 pts since that same 2001 season (vs. Peyton Manning and Indianapolis). That was Tom Brady’s rookie season. Getting a FG or more, New England is 22-11 ATS under Belichick and 10-3 ATS when getting at least seven. They are 14-3 ATS (12-5 SU) as a home dog under Belichick including 2-0 ATS this year. So it’s not all “ancient history.” Buffalo has been rolling, but a 7th straight cover when laying this many points on the division road seems unlikely. 10* New England |
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12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 46.5 | Top | 38-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
8* Over Bills/Patriots (8:15 ET): There are two six-game streaks on the line coming into this game. Buffalo has covered six in a row. New England has gone Under in six in a row. Here I am targeting the latter streak as the Patriots should be better offensively now that they’ve returned home (where they haven’t played in a month). The last two games saw them run into two of the better defenses in the league (Rams, Dolphins), both on the road, and they had little to no success. Buffalo is giving up 25.4 PPG on the road this season. You’ll have to check out my 10* Game of the Week (play on the side) for a bunch of historical info on this spread. Bottom line: it’s not often that Buffalo is favored against New England, though this is the 2nd time this year it has happened. It’s even more rare to find them favored in Foxboro as they go for the 1st season sweep of the Patriots this century. New England hasn’t been a home dog of this magnitude since Tom Brady was a rookie. They haven’t been a division dog of 7 or more since that same 2001 season. They haven’t gotten this many points from any Buffalo team since Jim Kelly was playing QB in 1993. I that first meeting this season, Cam Newton fumbled inside the red zone as the Patriots were looking to tie/go ahead. They lost 24-21 as a 4-point dog. The total for that game was only 41, so it did go Over. You may find it curious that the total is higher for the rematch as NE has gone Under in six straight. But this time around the Patriots defense won’t have former Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore, who is out for the year with a knee injury. The Buffalo offense also seems to be better now than it was back on Nov 1, the date of the first meeting. They’ve scored at least 26 points in every game since. 8* Over Bills/Patriots |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers UNDER 54 | Top | 14-40 | Push | 0 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
8* Under Titans/Packers (8:20 ET): Two of the NFL’s more prolific offensive teams meet Sunday night at Lambeau Field where snow and wind are expected to be factors. Thus, I’m leaning towards this being a lower scoring game than what the oddsmakers are anticipating. Yes, we all know what an “Over machine” Tennessee has been since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB (19-4-1 O/U record!). But Green Bay has gone Under each of the last three weeks and this is a big number for such a high profile game. Given the weather conditions, expect to see a lot of Derrick Henry when the Titans have the ball. Of course, that figured to be the case anyway. But with the weather potentially being such a factor, the Titans prolific passing attack may be kept in check. The Packers’ defense ability to stop the run has been an issue for a while now, but they’ve gotten better as the season has worn on. I’m sure that slowing down Henry has been the main focus of practice all week long. The L3 games have seen GB allow an average of just 18.7 points and 311.7 yards. Over the L7 games, only one opponent (Colts) has scored more than 25 vs. the Pack. Tennessee has scored 30+ points in five straight games as they look to go to the playoffs for a second straight season. However, the L2 weeks have seen them benefit from facing weak opponents (Detroit, Jacksonville). Expect more resistance from a Packers team that can clinch home field advantage in the NFC with a win tonight. The Titans’ Over percentage is second highest in the league (behind only Las Vegas - ugh), but I’m willing to buck that trend here given the gravity of the game and likely weather conditions. 8* Under Titans/Packers |
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12-27-20 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 47 | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -120 | 125 h 36 m | Show |
10* Over Rams/Seahawks (4:25 ET): These teams met back in Week 10 with the Rams emerging victorious by a score of 23-16. They were 3.5-point favorites at home. The stakes are much higher for this rematch as Seattle, not the Rams, can wrap up the NFC West with a win. LA is off a very embarrassing loss last week as they became the first team to fall to the Jets in 2020, doing so 23-20 as a 17-point home favorite. Obviously, they should come eager to atone for such an unthinkable result. But beating Russell Wilson in Seattle isn’t easy as they scored 40 points the last time they played here - against the Jets! That this game takes place up in the Pacific Northwest should have a profound effect on your analysis of the total. The Rams are 7-0 Under at home this season and they are the only team in the league yet to have a single home game go Over. But they are 4-3 Over on the road as the offense averages 28.1 PPG, up a full TD from what they average at home. Similarly, the defensive numbers go up on the road. The Rams allow just 14.4 PPG at home, but 24.0 on the road, a big-time increase. So while Rams’ home games average just 35.5 PPG, their road games are at 52.1. Again that’s a severe difference. Seattle has had two of its three lowest-scoring games in the past three weeks. Ironically, both games were against NFC East teams. But in between they did have the 40-point game vs. the Jets here at home. They are averaging 31.0 PPG at home for the year. Going into the 1st meeting with the Rams, the Seahawks had gone Over in six of their first eight games. Now they’ve gone Under in six straight. I say it's time for that streak to end. The O/U line for the first meeting closed at 53.5, a full TD higher than what it is here! Over the L3 weeks, the Seahawks defense has gotten to face three bottom five offenses. Not here. 10* Over Rams/Seahawks |
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12-27-20 | Colts v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
UPDATE: Liking this play even more now with the announcement BOTH Colts' starting tackles are out. 8* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Things have really “gone South” in a hurry for the Steelers, who were once 11-0 SU. They’ve now suffered three consecutive SU losses and have failed to cover all four games in December. Their only win this month came against a Ravens team that was severely depleted because of COVID (game was played on a Wednesday night). Starting with that less than stellar effort, the Black & Gold have averaged just 17 PPG the L4 weeks. A new nadir came Monday night when they lost outright - as a two touchdown underdog - to 2-win Cincinnati. Apologies (from players and coaches) have been issued ever since. I know Indianapolis commands a lot of respect in the marketplace. Did you know that the Colts have been underdogs in only one game all season? That was when they closed +1 at Cleveland in Week 5! But this sure feels like a “buy low” spot on the Steelers. The lookahead line for this game was Pittsburgh -3, but after the loss on MNF, it almost instantly “jumped the fence” to where now the Steelers are underdogs for the 1st time all season at home. This line move reminds me a little bit of when the Colts ended up favored against Baltimore and lost 24-10. But that game was played in Indianapolis. The Steelers’ offense has been held under 20 points in four straight games, something that hasn’t happened since Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season. With fingers being pointed, I expect Big Ben and the offense to “get it going” here against a Colts’ pass defense that has given up three straight 300+ yard passing days. Indy was outgained at home by Houston last week, 425-350. Pittsburgh allowed just 230 total yards vs. Cincinnati, but was an unlucky -3 in turnover differential. Getting points, at home, with a team that started the year 11-0 is a value I simply cannot pass up. 8* Pittsburgh |
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12-27-20 | Browns v. Jets +10 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): The Jets finally won a game last week as they stunned the Rams 23-20 as a two-touchdown underdog on the road. While it saved them from the potential embarrassment of going 0-16, the win ultimately may prove costly as the Jets are no longer in position to pick 1st in next spring’s Draft (Jacksonville is). Of course, HC Adam Gase probably doesn’t want to get fired (I would have never hired him), so the win may have bought him some time. I think the conventional wisdom here will be that the Jets “can’t possibly win two in a row.” While that may be true, I do see a ton of value with line. The Browns went 0-16 a few years ago, but that’s now a distant memory with Baker Mayfield leading a renaissance in Cleveland. The Browns are now 10-4 SU and barring a complete collapse will be in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. But this is a somewhat unprecedented spread for Cleveland. The last time they were favored by at least 9 points on the road was 1976 when they laid two touchdowns to the expansion Buccaneers. That was a long time ago! Mayfield is just 2-6 ATS in his career as a road favorite and the Browns are 3-10 ATS overall their L13 road games. You may recall that I successfully faded them a few weeks ago in Jacksonville when they were -6.5. They ended up winning that game by only two points. Since Week 5, the Browns have just one win by more than five points. It came last week in this stadium, against the Giants, 20-6. However, you should note the Giants failed to score on TWO drives that ended inside the 10-yard line. With half the Browns games this season being decided by one score, you really can’t justify laying this many points with them on the road. I know it’s the Jets and motivation could be an issue now that they’ve actually won, but my power ratings say this number should be under a touchdown. The Browns are only 3-6 ATS their L9 games and have failed to cover four of the six games where they’ve been favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take the points. 8* NY Jets |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders UNDER 48 | Top | 26-25 | Loss | -108 | 54 h 36 m | Show |
9* Under Dolphins/Raiders (8:15 ET): These teams are seemingly headed in opposite directions. I played Miami last week as they beat the Patriots 22-12, their 8th SU win in the L10 games (they’ve also gone 9-1 ATS in that stretch). Las Vegas has lost four of five, the only win coming against the then-winless Jets on a last second “Hail Mary.” I went against the Raiders last Thursday when they fell in overtime to the Chargers. Normally, I might stick with the Dolphins’ bandwagon, but this will be LV’s third straight game at home and I don’t like how the line “jumped the fence” early in the week. It’s the total that’s catching my eye now. What’s interesting about playing this total is that each of the Raiders’ last seven games have seen at least 49 total points scored and five of those seven have seen at least 57 total points scored. But Miami has seen 33 or LESS total points scored in four of its last five games (exception was vs. KC). So something will have to give. Considering Marcus Mariota could start for Las Vegas, I think this will be more of a “Miami-type game.” Even if Derek Carr is able to play, you’d have to be concerned about his injured groin facing one of the best defenses in the league. Over their last 10 games, Miami has allowed more than 21 points to only two opponents - the Chiefs and Cardinals. This Dolphins’ defense has hit the “trifecta,” ranking 1st in the league in scoring (18.4 PPG allowed), takeaways (26) & 3rd down percentage (32.5%). Not only do the Raiders have an injured starting QB, but RB Josh Jacobs has averaged just 3.0 YPC since Week 10. But giving the home team a sliver of hope is the fact Miami has scored 22 points or less in four of its last five games. Tua Tagovailoa is still a rookie QB playing on the road. So look for this game to snap a 6-0 Over run in head to head meetings between these teams. 9* Under Dolphins/Raiders |
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12-26-20 | 49ers +5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:30 ET): After “striking gold” as NFC Champs a season ago, the 49ers’ fortunes quickly soured in 2020. Injuries piled up early on, leaving them depleted on both sides of the ball. The end result is a 5-9 SU record and they are down to third string QB CJ Beathard as they get ready to face the Cardinals this week (Saturday). Arizona is a place the Niners should be quite familiar with at this point; it’s where they’ve been playing their “home games” due to local COVID-19 restrictions. While they’ve yet to win here (0-2), playing in the same stadium for the third time in four weeks is a bit of a “hidden advantage.” So I’m actually taking the points here. Both the 49ers and Cardinals scored 33 points last week and put up a ton of yards. The 49ers gained 458 against the Cowboys while the Cards finished with 526 against the Eagles. Interestingly, both also lost the turnover battle pretty badly (49ers -4, Cardinals -3). But while San Fran lost by 8, Arizona still managed to win by 7. That’s pretty much the way it’s gone for these two teams in 2020 as the Cardinals are now ascending in the NFC West. They need this game to move closer to their first playoff berth in five years. Meanwhile, there’s a very good chance the 49ers could be the only team in the division NOT to make the playoffs this year. While it’s “must win”, I feel Arizona is a little overvalued here. While they’ve had success against the 49ers in the past, including a 24-20 win back in Week 1, they’ve also been the underdog in each of the L5 meetings. When favored this year, the Cardinals are just 3-7 ATS with five outright losses.The 49ers really should have beaten Dallas last week (were +167 in total yards) but two early TO’s dug them into a 14-0 hole and they also allowed a kick return for TD. In relief, Beathard actually played pretty well, leading two scoring drives. Having outgained opponents on a per game and per play basis this season, the Niners are better than their record. They were actually favored each of the L3 wks, not to mention were -7 vs. Arizona in Wk 1. Good value here. 10* San Francisco. |
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12-25-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -136 | 45 h 27 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (4:30 ET): Though last week’s 33-27 upset loss to the Bears (at home) effectively ended any chance they have to make the playoffs, I think there’s actually quite a bit to like about this Minnesota team moving forward (expect a bounce back in 2021). Yes, I know they are 0-5 ATS their L5 games. But four of those games have been decided by 6 pts or less. The only one that wasn’t, a 26-14 loss to Tampa Bay two weeks ago, saw them take an early lead. With New Orleans suddenly struggling (also off B2B losses), this feels like it will be closer than experts think. Half of the Saints’ victories this season have come by 6 pts or less. The Saints defense, which had a historically great 5-game stretch, has suddenly “sprung a leak.” Yes, they had to face Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City last week. But what about the week before when they got to go against a rookie QB making his 1st career start? Jalen Hurts and the Eagles not only scored 24 points in a shocking upset, but they also ran for 246 yards. In case you needed to be reminded, the Vikings have Dalvin Cook, the league’s leading rusher. The Saints’ D also allowed 179 yards rushing vs. the Chiefs. Overall, this Vikings offense averages a really solid 6.3 yards per play. They’ve scored 27+ pts five of the last seven weeks. They should put plenty of points on the board again here. Historically, Minnesota does well in this spot. The spot being “off B2B losses.” They are 3-0 ATS in that role this season and 6-0 ATS the L3 seasons! They’ve won five of those six games outright. Let us not forget that Minnesota came here to the Superdome in January and won outright, 26-20 with an almost identical pointspread. Drew Brees didn’t look like himself last week (returned too early?) and New Orleans is a lousy 1-5 ATS the last six times they’ve been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 pts. Take the points. 10* Minnesota |
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12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 40 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over Steelers/Bengals (8:15 ET): Pittsburgh is a heavy favorite Monday night despite B2B losses, both of which came in primetime games. But let’s not be too quick to forget this team was 11-0 SU before having to endure three professional football games in a 12-day span. That, more than anything else, is what “caught up to them” and caused them to drop two in a row. Tonight has all the makings of a “get well” game for the Black & Gold, especially on the offensive side of the ball as the Bengals defense they face tonight just allowed a 122.6 passer rating to backup QB Andy Dalton. Dallas, a bad team, scored 30 in that game. Normally, I’d be “all over” a double digit dog in primetime, but the Bengals seem a bit “untouchable” right now, especially with Ryan Finley now set to start at QB. Finley is the third different starting QB for the Bengals in the last five games. Joe Burrow’s injury effectively ended this team’s season as it’s been all downhill ever since. Cincinnati has lost five in a row, a streak that started against the Steelers. Burrow was hurt the following week and the Bengals have managed only three offensive touchdowns since. The defense had been okay, but then came the aforementioned effort last week vs. Dallas, a sign this game has the potential to get pretty ugly. This is one of the lowest totals you’ll see the entire NFL season. When the teams met five weeks ago, the O/U line was 45 and the game went Over as Pittsburgh won 36-10. A similar final score could be on tap tonight. The Bengals’ offense actually did move the ball a bit last week, only to fumble it away on each of the opening three possessions. But tonight is all about the Steelers’ offense getting back on track. As we saw in the 1st meeting, they could possibly come close to sending this one Over themselves. Cincy will give enough help to get it past the “finish line” as both teams end 4-game Under streaks. The Over is 5-0 in the Bengals’ L5 home games vs. a team w/ a winning road record. 10* Over Steelers/Bengals |
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12-20-20 | Browns v. Giants +6.5 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 36 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:20 ET): Despite losing Monday night, the Browns remain tremendously overvalued in the marketplace. Yes, there is some uncertainty with the Giants’ QB situation as they may have to turn to Colt McCoy (a former Brown!) for this Sunday night game. But remember it was McCoy who helped engineer the shocking upset in Seattle two weeks ago. Calling the plays for the G-Men will be former Browns’ HC Freddie Kitchens. So there’s going to be PLENTY of motivation on that home sideline this week, in addition to the fact the Giants are trying to win the NFC East (currently tied for 1st w/ Washington at 5-7 SU). Cleveland is 9-4 SU, but six of its wins have been by seven points or less and the schedule has been relatively easy. Ironically, in defeat, they probably played one of their better games on MNF. I think the consensus coming off that wild 47-42 loss to the Ravens is that the Browns are “for real.” But beware of the fact they still have a negative point differential on the season and the defense has given up a total of 82 points the L2 weeks. As a favorite this season, the Browns are 7-1 SU, but just 3-5 ATS. As favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, they are 5-0 SU, but 1-4 ATS. I just don’t this team should be this large of a road favorite. In fact, my own power ratings call this game a pick ‘em! The Giants are 8-3 ATS (though only 3-8 SU) as underdogs this season. They were on a 4-game win streak before getting blown out by Arizona (26-7) last week. That singular result seems to have greatly affected this spread and I’m not sure why. The Browns have not won a game by more than six points since October 11th. During that 4-game win streak, the G-Men were giving up an average of just 16.5 PPG. The 26 pts they allowed last week were the most in any game since Week 5. They’ve allowed more than 26 only twice all season. Take the points. 10* NY Giants |
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12-20-20 | Chiefs v. Saints +3 | Top | 32-29 | Push | 0 | 54 h 41 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): The Chiefs are living dangerously. They’ve won five consecutive one score games, but have not covered the spread in any of them. This reminds me of last year’s Super Bowl run where they fell behind by double digits in every playoff game, only to come out ahead every time. Of course, the difference is that they covered the spread in all those games. Normally, I might see a 5-game ATS losing streak as a time to “buy low,” but being a road favorite against the Saints seems to be the antithesis of “buying low.” Rather it’s the other side I want to invest in as this seems to be a steal. For the record, New Orleans was going to be an underdog in this game even before they were upset last week in Philadelphia. That shocking defeat to an Eagles team starting a rookie QB (1st career start) hasn’t seemed to affect this line much. Surprisingly, as of press time at least, nor has the impending return of Drew Brees. I just think this is an incredible value on a Saints team - with or without Brees in the lineup. They’d won nine in a row prior to last week and were widely considered to be the best team in the NFC. The Saints are 8-1 SU and ATS as underdogs since 2018 including a 38-3 win at Tampa Bay last month. That was the only time New Orleans has been a dog in 2020. Even with Taysom Hill as the starter, I would have loved this line. But now it’s the HOF Brees under center. We’re also getting arguably the league’s best defense. If there’s one defense I’d trust to slow down Patrick Mahomes, it would be this one as the Saints are allowing just 20.4 PPG this year. Going into last week’s game vs. Philly (where I cashed the Over), the Saints had allowed just two offensive touchdowns in their past five games. It’s almost unheard of to be getting a Brees-led Saints team as a home underdog. Take the points. 8* New Orleans |
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12-20-20 | Bucs v. Falcons +6 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Atlanta has been a home dog only two other times this season. I took them the first time around and that ended up being a 43-6 thrashing of Las Vegas, their best performance of the 2020 season. The Dirty Birds weren’t as fortunate the following week (+3 in a 21-16 loss), but that was against the Saints. Tampa Bay is closer to New Orleans than they are to Las Vegas in terms of talent, but still I don’t see how Tom Brady and the Bucs deserve to be favored by more in Atlanta than New Orleans was. The current line is much higher than the look ahead line was and I’m seeing value on the Falcons here. The Bucs got a late season bye and really needed it as they were off B2B losses heading into LW’s game vs. Minnesota. The week off seemed to do them some good as they beat the Vikings 26-14 as six-point favorites. However, they were actually outgained in the contest (335-303) and had 10 fewer first downs than Minnesota. A potential major problem for TB this week is that all three specialists (kicker, punter, long-snapper) are on the COVID-19 list. Special teams miscues often end up costing a team wins (just ask the Chargers!) and don’t be surprised if the Bucs make one on Sunday. Also, the Bucs’ starting left tackle (Donovan Smith) won’t play here and RB Ronald Jones is questionable. A few things to keep in mind with the Falcons here. One is that despite a 4-9 SU record, they have actually outscored their opponents this season! Matt Ryan is 15-7 ATS all-time as a home dog. Interim HC Raheem Morris probably wants to keep this job on a permanent basis, so I don’t see this team quitting. They could have beaten the Chargers last week if not for TWO late Ryan interceptions. Atlanta is 4-4 SU under Morris. Take the points. 8* Atlanta |
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12-20-20 | Patriots v. Dolphins -1 | Top | 12-22 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
9* Miami (1:00 ET): Is there something I’m missing here? Because I feel the Dolphins are being severely undervalued in this spot, a key AFC East clash. Not that I mind. I’ve cashed Miami multiple times in 2020, the most notable win was obviously my 10* Game of the Year when they upset the Rams 28-17 here at home. Since their bye week last season, Brian Flores’ team has gone a league-best 19-6 ATS. The ‘Fins are 10-3 ATS this season, have covered eight of their last nine and were a winner for me last week +7.5 against the best team in the league, Kansas City. I feel they should be about a touchdown favorite here. This clearly isn’t the same New England team we’ve grown accustomed to seeing under Bill Belichick. The Patriots are just 6-7 SU and while technically not out of the playoff race, their reign of dominance over the AFC East (won division 17 of the last 19 years, including 11 straight) figures to end, possibly as early as Sunday. Even if the Pats were to win their final three games, it’s highly doubtful they’ll make the playoffs. It’s been awhile, so let me remind you that the last time we saw this team, they were thoroughly dominated in a 24-3 loss to the Rams. So much has changed since these teams met in Week 1. New England won that first game 21-11, but Tua Tagovailoa is now the Miami QB and he’s led his team to a 4-2 WL record. The Dolphins are 4-1 SU/ATS as favorites this season and now they get to play host. The Patriots are just 2-5 SU/ATS on the road and one of those SU wins was by three against the Jets. I know all about Belchick’s record vs. rookie QBs (11-0 since 2012), but this isn’t the same NE team. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records and the Patriots are 0-3 ATS when playing with more than six days off between games. So much for rest. Miami is better and deserves to be favored. 9* Miami |
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12-20-20 | Patriots v. Dolphins OVER 41.5 | Top | 12-22 | Loss | -103 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
8* Over Patriots/Dolphins (1:00 ET): Is there something I’m missing here? Because I feel the Dolphins are being severely undervalued in this spot, a key AFC East clash. Not that I mind. I’ve cashed Miami multiple times in 2020, the most notable win was obviously my 10* Game of the Year when they upset the Rams 28-17 here at home. Since their bye week last season, Brian Flores’ team has gone a league-best 19-6 ATS. The ‘Fins are 10-3 ATS this season, have covered eight of their last nine and were a winner for me last week +7.5 against the best team in the league, Kansas City. I feel they should be about a touchdown favorite here. This clearly isn’t the same New England team we’ve grown accustomed to seeing under Bill Belichick. The Patriots are just 6-7 SU and while technically not out of the playoff race, their reign of dominance over the AFC East (won division 17 of the last 19 years, including 11 straight) figures to end, possibly as early as Sunday. Even if the Pats were to win their final three games, it’s highly doubtful they’ll make the playoffs. It’s been awhile, so let me remind you that the last time we saw this team, they were thoroughly dominated in a 24-3 loss to the Rams. A lot has changed since these teams met in Week 1. New England won that first game 21-11, but Tua Tagovailoa is now the Miami QB. Belichick has won 11 straight against rookie QBs, but don’t be surprised when the Dolphins have far more success on the offensive side of the ball here than they did in that first meeting. They put up 27 points last week vs. Kansas City. Of course, they also gave up 33 (despite forcing four turnovers). The Patriots figure to run the ball a lot here as they were successful doing so (217 yards) back in Week 1. This is a really low O/U and I see the Pats’ 5-game Under run coming to an end. 8* Over Patriots/Dolphins |
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12-20-20 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team +6 | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): So Washington is forced to start Dwayne Haskins this week as Alex Smith is injured. That’s a bit of a bummer for a team that has really come into its own of late with four consecutive wins and covers. I believe this is the team that will win the moribund NFC East. Were Smith starting here, I would make Washington the favorite here. They beat Pittsburgh (who was unbeaten at the time) on the road two weeks ago and it’s not like Seattle is immune from a shocking loss. Two weeks ago, they fell at home to the Giants, 17-12 as 12.5-point chalk. The Seahawks rebounded from that upset loss by smashing the Jets 40-3 last week. But that doesn’t really affect our view of Russell Wilson and company. Everybody beats the Jets. As good as Wilson and the Seahawks’ defense has looked this season, they’re up against a defense that’s allowed a total of just 57 points the last four games. That’s just over 14.0 per game as rookie Chase Young has looked phenomenal of late for the Football team. Seattle’s RT Brandon Snell has been in and out of the lineup recently, so protecting Wilson could be an issue here. Washington’s offense actually gained less than 200 total yards last week, but they still won 23-15 against San Francisco. While not a “true” road win (was played in Arizona), they’ll take it. Seattle is just 3-3 SU on the road this season and almost all of their games (save for LW) end up being close. Going back to the start of last season, 17 of the Seahawks’ 21 victories have been by one possession! They’ve been outgained this year. The Football Team’s defense will carry Haskins and keep this one closer than expected. The Seahawks have failed to cover four straight road games and are 0-3 ATS L3 as a road favorite. 8* Washington |
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12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos +6 | Top | 48-19 | Loss | -104 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
10* Denver (4:30 ET): I have to concede that the Broncos are NOT one of my favorite teams this season. They are the only team in the league that hasn’t been favored in a single game all year and they’ve got the 5th worst point differential. Only the Bengals, Cowboys, Jaguars and Jets - who are a collective 7-44-1 SU - have been outscored by a larger margin this season. That being said, this would seem like a prime opportunity to “sell high” on the Bills as they are coming off a win over the Steelers and 5-0 ATS their L5 games. Despite that ATS win streak, my power rankings indicate this line should be +3.5. I was NOT as high on Buffalo as most were coming into this season. I’ll admit that I was wrong in that regard as this very much looks like a legit contender in the AFC right now. But in terms of point differential, the Bills remain outside the top ten (in the league) and have benefited by going 5-1 SU in one-score games. They still don’t really have the statistical profile you’d expect from a 10-3 team. What they have done is handle their business at home (5-0 SU when favored). But on the road, they are just 1-3 ATS when favored. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS against the Bills since 2007, but this is the first time they’ll face them with Drew Lock as the starting QB. Lock is 10-5 ATS in his NFL career, leading Denver to cash in each of his L3 starts. After leading a near upset of Kansas City two weeks ago, Lock had his best game as a pro vs. Carolina last week as he had a 4-0 TD-INT ratio in the 32-27 victory. This team is simply much better with Lock under center. I know the Denver defense has some serious issues at CB right now, but they remain #1 in the league in red zone efficiency and should stymie Buffalo enough to keep this one within the number. 10* Denver |
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12-17-20 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (8:25 ET): From the oddsmakers perspective, the Chargers “should” have a better won-loss record than the Raiders this year. LA has been favored in six games while Las Vegas has been the chalk in only four. The Chargers’ main problem, which is nothing new, has been a failure to win close games. They are just 3-7 SU in games decided by 7 points or less, though they did prevail in one last week 20-17 against Atlanta. While the Bolts have yet to win as an underdog this year and last won a division game in 2018, the close win last week gives me belief they can pull through here. Take the points. The Raiders’ recent form has been lousy with their only win in the L4 games coming by three points against the 0-13 Jets. If you recall, I faded them in that spot. They would have lost the game outright had it not been for the ineptitude of (now fired) Jets’ DC Gregg Williams. Speaking of bad defense, the Raiders have given up an average of 37.5 PPG these L4 weeks! Sunday marked the third time this season they allowed more than 40 points and the Colts also rolled up 200+ yards rushing AND passing. The Chargers have one of the league’s better offenses as they are top 10 in total yards and #4 in passing. Unlike the Raiders, the Chargers have outgained their opponents this season. The first time these AFC West rivals met very much embodied the kind of season it’s been for LA. They outgained the Raiders 440-320, yet lost on the scoreboard 31-26 when the potential GW TD was overturned. QB Justin Herbert threw for over 300 yards and should do so again here. The Chargers’ YTD point differential is quite comparable to the Raiders despite the disparate records. You have to figure that “elusive” division victory is coming soon for the Chargers and I say “why not here?” as this line should be read as a huge warning signal about the Raiders, who have failed to cover the L2 times they’ve been favored. 10* LA Chargers |
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12-14-20 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | Top | 47-42 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:15 ET): While I remain HIGHLY skeptical of the Browns’ long-term fortune, due to a -15 point differential and 6-0 SU record in games decided by 7 pts or less (lucky!), I’ve got them here as a home dog vs. the Ravens on MNF. Certainly many are going to point to the way Baltimore dismantled the Browns back in Week 1. However, that 38-6 win and cover (as 7-pt favorites) seems like “forever ago” and the Ravens simply have not been as dominant in 2020 as they were a season ago. You’ll want to take the points here. Baltimore had lost three in a row (all by 6 points or less) before beating a Dallas team that put up little effort on Tuesday. I don’t think we should put much stock in a win over the Cowboys at this point. The Browns aren’t the Cowboys, that’s for sure. Last week saw Baker Mayfield play perhaps the best half of his NFL career, leading his team to a ridiculous 38-7 halftime advantage. The final score of 41-35 is misleading to say the least as the Titans scored two touchdowns in the final two minutes. Mayfield had a career-high 4 TDs in the 1H last week. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Odell Beckham Jr was lost to a season-ending injury. That was six games ago and Mayfield had an 11-0 TD-INT ratio since the Beckham injury. The Browns have not trailed in three of their last four games and the one they did (Jacksonville) saw them down for only a brief time. This will be Baltimore’s third game in 12 days and second in a row on a short week. We saw how Pittsburgh looked last night in the same scenario. 10* Cleveland |
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12-13-20 | Steelers +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -102 | 94 h 29 m | Show |
9* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): I view this as a tremendous “buy low” spot on the Steelers. That may sound strange considering this team has lost just one time all season. But that loss occurred last Monday, the same day Buffalo ended its long MNF losing streak with a 34-24 victory against San Francisco. The Steelers have certainly underwhelmed of late, not just with loss to Washington last Monday, but also with a less than stellar showing against what amounted to the Ravens’ backups two weeks ago. But they are 11-1, have one of the best defenses in football and should NOT be an underdog here. My power ratings were more in step with the lookahead line for this game, which had the Steelers as slight favorites. Shortly after the MNF results came in, the line quickly “jumped the fence” with the Bills now favored. I don’t buy it. Despite being 9-3, Buffalo doesn’t even have a top 10 point differential. Five of their wins have been in one-score games and remember that the 49ers team they just defeated was playing a lot of backups and the game WASN’T in San Francisco. The Bills are 1-7 ATS playing on a short week since 2016. Lots of other trends favor the road team here. Mike Tomlin is 17-5 ATS as a road dog against a team with a winning record. He is on a 10-2 ATS run as an underdog of any kind with eight outright wins. Pittsburgh is 8-4 ATS this season, the second best such record in the league. While Buffalo has covered four straight themselves, their pass-happy offense doesn’t figure to fare so well against what is probably the best pass defense in the entire league. The L3 weeks have seen the Steelers allow an average of just 247.7 YPG. 9* Pittsburgh |
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12-13-20 | Saints v. Eagles OVER 42 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
10* Over Saints/Eagles (4:25 ET): Well, isn’t this the contrarian play? Even getting more than a touchdown at home, it feels as if the Eagles are getting too MUCH respect this week as they send out Jalen Hurts to make his 1st career NFL start against what might be the league’s best defense. The QB change, precipitated by the horrendous play of Carson Wentz, was needed. It’s a tough spot for Hurts, no doubt. But here’s the thing. What if he’s good? Certainly he can be no worse than Wentz was over the last month or so. New Orleans doesn’t have many problems these days. They are 10-2 SU and in the driver's seat to earn homefield advantage in the NFC Playoffs. Even without Drew Brees, the Saints continue to hum along as they’ve won nine in a row, the last three coming with Taysom Hill as the starting QB. Brees is reportedly close to returning, but there’s no rush considering the Saints are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS WITHOUT him in the lineup the L2 seasons. The offense should score plenty here as they’ve run for 436 yards the L2 weeks. I certainly expect the Saints to score in the neighborhood of their season average of 28.9 PPG. So this is the lowest total on the board Sunday, which can’t be all that surprising with a rookie QB going against a defense that has allowed just two touchdowns and 44 total points in the L5 games. Plus these teams have combined to go Under in 11 straight games. But I believe the Saints can do virtually all the “heavy lifting” here and won’t be surprised if the Eagles score more than expected. Hurts is a bit of an “X-factor.” If New Orleans allows just 20 points here - and that is their season average - we should be in really good shape. I’ve waited all week to try and hit this number at its nadir, so here we go. 10* Over Saints/Eagles |
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12-13-20 | Cowboys v. Bengals +4 | Top | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 10 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): So the thought process here is pretty simple. Unless they’re playing the Jets, Dallas should not be a favorite against anybody, let alone on the road. America’s Team has really underperformed in Mike McCarthy’s first season, going a league-worst 2-10 ATS. Obviously, Cowboys’ fans can point a finger to the Dak Prescott injury, but the team was already struggling before the QB was lost for the season. McCarthy was a terrible hire and the Cowboys’ three wins this year have come by a combined seven points, none by more than a field goal. So yeah, take the points here. The Bengals also lost their starting QB to a season-ending injury and it may be a long-time before we see Joe Burrow again. That’s too bad because Cincinnati was pretty competitive with Burrow under center. While the immediate future may not be looking too rosy in Cincy, the team has remained competitive even without its rookie QB. Two weeks ago, I took them and they covered in a 2-point loss to the Giants. Last week saw them hang in against the 8-4 Dolphins, even taking a 7-6 lead into halftime. The team is 6-2 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss and now they are back home where they’ve covered four in a row. The big story of this game will be Andy Dalton returning to Cincinnati. But for me, it’s the opportunity to play against Dallas as a favorite. The ‘Boys have been favored five times this season and are 0-5 ATS in those games, losing three of those games outright. This is the just the 2nd time they’ve been favored since the Prescott injury (lost 41-16 to Washington on Thanksgiving). The run defense (167.8 YPG allowed) is the worst the league has seen in a decade and just gave up almost 300 yards to Baltimore last week. That game was on Tuesday and the Cowboys are 3-15 ATS since 2012 when playing w/ six or fewer days' rest. The Bengals defense has held 4 of the last 5 opponents to 20 points or less and the team has three losses by a FG or less. 8* Cincinnati |
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12-13-20 | Texans v. Bears +1.5 | Top | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 87 h 9 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): That 5-1 start is a distant memory for the Bears, who have now lost six straight. The future of HC Matt Nagy in the Windy City is very much in doubt, even though he took this team to a division championship just two years ago. But at least he has Mitchell Trubisky! Wait, what? While Bears fans are probably still salty the team chose Trubisky instead of the opposing QB this week (DeShaun Watson), they can rest easy knowing the team has averaged a solid 25.8 PPG in Trubisky starts this season. As much as the Bears have struggled on the offensive side of the ball, they’re better with Trubisky under center and facing a terrible defense this week. Houston’s season has gone very differently than Chicago, though both now sport similar records. The Texans opened 0-4 with three of those losses coming to Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Kansas City. They’re 4-4 SU since the 0-4 start, but two of the wins were against Jacksonville. As I already mentioned, the Texans defense - even with JJ Watt - is abysmal. They are 30th in both yards allowed and efficiency. Losing a heartbreaker at home to Indianapolis last week (fumbled inside the Colts’ 5-yard line on the potential go-ahead drive) does this team no favors. I have these rated pretty evenly, so even with the Bears’ struggles over the last two months, I don’t think they should be an underdog at home this week. Houston isn’t just 4-8 SU, they are also 4-8 ATS. The Bears’ defense has been bad the L2 weeks, but the Texans offense just lost WR Will Fuller to a suspension and WR Brandin Cooks is questionable with foot and neck injuries. Four of the Bears’ last five games have been decided by one possession, so the fact they’ve lost all of them is a case of bad luck. This is a winnable game. 8* Chicago |
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12-13-20 | Chiefs v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 87 h 9 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:00 ET): No one seems to take the Dolphins very seriously, despite their 8-4 SU record. Normally, I’d also be skeptical of a team with that record if they’ve been outgained on a per game/play basis like the ‘Fins have. But did you know that Miami has the FOURTH best point differential in the league this season (+91!)? They were my 10* NFL Game of the Year back on November 1st and that ended up being an outright 28-17 win as three-point dogs against the Rams. This spot feels eerily similar. Kansas City is one of three teams with a better YTD point differential than the Dolphins. But they’ve been far from dominant of late. Each of their last four wins have been by six points or less and they are 0-4 ATS in those games. Those four wins have been by a total of 15 points and they’ve trailed at halftime in three of them. Last week, as a double digit home favorite, they trailed a bad Denver team for much of the first three quarters and scored just one offensive TD. While Miami’s offense is hardly explosive, they can lean on a defense that has produced a turnover in 18 consecutive games (longest active streak in the league) and allowed the second fewest points in the league this season. They’ve allowed just 10 total points in the L2 games and 21 or less in six of the last seven contests. They’ve covered six of those seven games and are a league-best 18-6 ATS since their Week 5 bye last season. This is a game the Dolphins very much can win and really need for their playoff hopes. Take the points. 8* Miami |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams OVER 44.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
10* Over Patriots/Rams (8:20 ET): This particular play definitely flies in the face of results, both recent and long-term. The Under is 5-0 in Rams’ home games this season with their defense allowing an average of just 15.0 PPG. The Under is also 4-0 in the Patriots last four games overall. The Under is 6-2 in both teams’ last eight games. Now that we’ve got all that out of the way, let’s concentrate on the game at hand. The Rams scored 38 last week while the Patriots scored 45. Those were season-highs for both teams. Now the Patriots definitely got a “boost” from their special teams & defense, both of which scored a TD last week vs. the Chargers. They also got a long punt return that set up a field goal. Obviously, I do not expect New England to score 45 points again this week. The key is I don’t expect their defense to play as well. The Over is 4-1 the Patriots L5 games after holding the previous opponent to 15 points or less. The Rams offense averages nearly 400 YPG and 6.0 YPP. QB Jared Goff threw for 351 on yards on Sunday, completing 37 of 47 passes. Going into last week, the Patriots defense was 31st in the league (2nd worst), allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt. I expect another big offensive game from the Rams. New England flat out shocked me in their dismantling of the Chargers. The offense may not have been THAT impressive, but it did go for 165 yards on the ground. The Rams’ defense has been pretty good at stopping the run lately, but hasn’t really faced an offense that runs the ball well, let alone a QB like Cam Newton. This could end up closing as the lowest O/U for a Rams game all season. The only “competition” would be games vs. the Giants and Washington (w/ Dwayne Haskins), two inept offensive teams. 10* Over Patriots/Rams |
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12-06-20 | Patriots v. Chargers +1 | Top | 45-0 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (4:25 ET): The Chargers were “spared” what would have been yet another close loss last week as QB Justin Herbert was stuffed at the goal line on the final play. That cost me a cover though (would have been a 6-0 Sunday!). Thus it ended up being a 24-14 loss in Buffalo (I did cash the Under), dropping the Chargers to 3-8 SU on the year. They did outgain the Bills (ever so slightly), 367-332. Seven of those eight losses have been by eight points or less with four of them seeing LA blow a double digit lead! I realize you could say this most years, but the Chargers really are better than their record. The Patriots really had no business winning last week. The offense gained only 179 total yards at a pathetic 3.5 yards per play. This offense - with Cam Newton at the helm - just isn’t very good. Over the L8 weeks, New England has scored more than 23 points only one time and that was against the winless Jets. Though the market continues to show them respect (Belichick factor?), I think it’s important to realize the Pats are simply a below average football team right now. They’ve been outgained on the year - both per game and per play - and been outscored by 26 points. Newton has a 4-9 TD-INT ratio and will be missing his left tackle. Home field advantage may not mean much to the Chargers, especially this year, but they really should be at least a three-point favorite in this spot. This is a team that led the Chiefs, Bucs and Saints by double digits! The one bright spot of the season has been the play of rookie QB Justin Herbert, who is averaging over 300 YPG. RB Austin Ekler returned last week and had 129 total yards. The Patriots defense is giving up 7.6 yards per attempt, which ranks 31st. “Now or never” (for the Chargers) might seem a bit hyperbolic, but after five straight ATS losses, they really should win here. 10* LA Chargers |
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12-06-20 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 48.5 | Top | 16-30 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
8* Over Eagles/Packers (4:25 ET): Seeing as how Aaron Rodgers and the Packers just put up 41 on a very good Bears defense, they should have little difficulty scoring plenty of points here against the sinking ship known as the Eagles. Philadelphia dropped to 3-7-1 SU w/ a home loss to Seattle Monday night. That 23-17 defeat saw them pull off one of the great “backdoor covers” of the season with a TD + 2 pt conversion in the closing seconds (closed +6.5). That made it three straight games where the Eagles have scored exactly 17 points. They’ve got to be due for some more scoring, right? As it turns out, Philly’s last five games have all stayed Under. But that includes two games vs. the Giants (who are 30th in PPG), one vs. Dallas (who was starting Ben DiNucci) and lousy weather in Cleveland. I was a bit shocked to see the Eagles hold the high-scoring Seahawks to just 23 points Monday night. They were particularly stout against the run (gave up only 76 yards on the ground). But on a short week I don’t see them having much success against Rodgers, who has thrown 53 touchdown passes in his last 23 regular season games. Rodgers and this Packers offense average 31.7 PPG and have gone over 30 in 8 of their 11 games. If they were to hit that season average (certainly plausible), then we won’t need much scoring from the struggling Carson Wentz. The only Green Bay game in the last six weeks to stay Under came against Jacksonville. When these teams played last year, the Eagles won 34-27 (at Lambeau!), led by Jordan Howard’s 87 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Howard was just activated from the practice squad this week. This one will sneak Over. 8* Over Eagles/Packers |
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12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 11 m | Show |
9* Arizona (4:05 ET): When they were 5-2 SU, the Cardinals were looking like one of the real pleasant surprises in the league. I figured this would be an improved outfit in Kliff Kingsbury’s second season at the helm, but the last four weeks have been a bit concerning. The Cards have failed to cover four in a row and the lone SU win in that stretch came on a Hail Mary pass at home vs. Buffalo. Following a tough loss last week at New England, they return home this week and are underdogs in a key NFC West matchup. The Rams are 7-4 SU, one game ahead of Arizona for second place in the division. They too are off a loss as they fell 23-20 at home to San Francisco. In looking at the Rams’ home vs. road splits, the one thing that becomes apparent is that their defense seems to “fail to travel.” They are giving up 23.3 PPG on the road, not a bad number, but it’s a lot more than the 15.0 PPG they’re allowing at home. As a road favorite, the Rams are just 1-2 SU/ATS this season. They are 3-5 SU/ATS L8 games as a road fave of 3 pts or less. Also, take away the four games against the sorry NFC East and the Rams are just 3-3 SU overall this year. Arizona should have beaten New England last week, but missed the potential game-winning FG with under two minutes to go. That allowed the Patriots to go kick the GW. The Cardinals’ defense allowed just 179 yards. While both of these offenses have had success running the football, Arizona is 1st in yards per carry while the Rams are only 18th. I vehemently disagreed with the way the line moved in LA’s favor early in the week and think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Cardinals, who will be quite eager to beat Rams HC Sean McVay for the first time in seven tries. 9* Arizona |
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12-06-20 | Raiders v. Jets +9 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 91 h 7 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Yes, I’m taking the winless Jets (0-11) this week. My suspicions over Las Vegas were confirmed last week when they suffered an atrocious 43-6 loss in Atlanta. As someone who had the Falcons +3 and was quite confident about the bet, even I could not have fathomed that result. The game was never really competitive and the Raiders turning it over five times certainly didn’t help. Something I want to reiterate from last week is just how few times Las Vegas has been favored this season. This will be only the 4th time it's happened. They are lucky to be 6-5 SU considering they have a -27 pt differential. With so little positives emanating from the Jets’ side of things, this is obviously a clear fade on the Silver and Black. I just don’t think that the Raiders should be favored by this many points on the road, against anybody. This matchup is obviously the “litmus test” for that assessment, but it’s worth noting that my own personal power ratings say this spread should only be -2.5! This will be the first time the Raiders close as a road favorite of 7 pts or more since 2002, which was the year they went to the Super Bowl with Rich Gannon as the MVP. That was a LONG time ago. Let’s try and pick out SOME positives with the Jets, shall we? RB Frank Gore should have a big game this week facing a suspect Raiders’ run defense. QB Sam Darnold, who has not thrown a TD pass in his last 19 quarters of action, is due. Before losing 20-3 to Miami last week, New York had covered three of four with losses to Buffalo, New England and the Chargers all coming by 8 points or fewer. With just one home game left after this week, this may be the Jets’ best shot at avoiding a winless season. No one wants to go 0-16, so I expect effort. Take the points. 8* NY Jets |
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12-06-20 | Jaguars v. Vikings UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
9* Under Jaguars/Vikings (1:00 ET): Last week saw Minnesota overcome an 11-point deficit in the 4th quarter to beat Carolina 28-27. The game-winning TD came in the final minute as the Vikings are now 5-6 SU on the year. They also had to overcome B2B fumble return for touchdowns to get the win last week. It’s actually quite impressive to win a game when you give up multiple defensive scores. It also means that the amount of scoring from that game was a bit misleading. With the Over now 6-0 in Minnesota home games, this total is pretty high and it’s a good time to bet the Under as they’re facing an opponent that’s bottom five in scoring. I’m actually a bit surprised to see how much scoring Jacksonville has done lately. They’ve hit 20 in four of the last five games, the lone exception being a date with Pittsburgh’s top-rated defense, who held them to three points. Mike Glennon is now the starting QB for the 1-10 Jags, losers of 10 straight.. While his 1st start since 2017 went “okay” last week, Glennon was a bit lucky to be in position to tie the Browns late in the game. The Jags scored a late TD after a pretty questionable roughing the passer call to pull within two. Obviously you know they missed the subsequent 2-point conversion attempt. Two of Jacksonville’s scoring drives last week totaled 44 yards. So they were probably lucky to score 25 points. They probably won’t be as lucky this week facing a Vikings defense that allowed only one touchdown last week and 10 points that weren’t off turnovers. Only two of Jacksonville’s last nine games have seen more than 52 total pts scored and the Under is 2-0 for them this season when the O/U line is above 50.0. 9* Under Jaguars/Vikings |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles +6 | Top | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:15 ET): I had tremendous success taking home dogs on Sunday and here’s another one where I see a ton of value. Seattle may be regarded as one of the league’s better teams, but they tend to be involved in a lot of close games. So far, seven of their 10 games have been decided by one score. This is a continuation from last season where they went an extremely fortunate 11-3 SU in one-score games. That good fortune has carried over to this year with a 5-2 SU record in those games. Bottom line: the Seahawks may be winning, but they usually win close. Normally, if a team was a 3-6-1, they’d already be thinking about next season. But because the Eagles (who have that record) play in the NFC East, they are very much still alive for a division title and playoff berth. This despite B2B “ugly” losses to the Giants and Browns. But both of those came on the road. Since losing to the Rams 39-17 back in Week 2, the Eagles are 2-1-1 SU here in Philly with the lone loss coming by two points against the Ravens. That loss to the Ravens was the only other time this season where they were a home dog and they covered the spread. Seattle is far from invincible when they hit the road. Their record away from home this season is just 2-3 straight up and against the spread. And let’s not forget just how awful the Seahawks’ pass defense has been. They are allowing 343.7 YPG through the air, most in the league. So I can see Eagles QB Carson Wentz, who has struggled, having his best game in a while here. Even though they are 7-3 SU, Seattle has been outgained by their opponents this season. The Eagles are actually even w/ theirs on a per play basis. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia |
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11-29-20 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (4:25 ET): The Bucs suffered another primetime loss on Monday, this one against the Rams 27-24. Primetime has accounted for three of the team’s four losses this season and they are 0-4 ATS in such games, the lone win being a nail-biter over the 3-7 Giants. So Tom Brady and company have to be pretty happy to be playing in the 4 PM (ET) window this week, even if the opponent is Kansas City. When NOT playing in primetime this year, Brady is 6-1 SU with the only loss coming back in Week 1 (at New Orleans). This will also be just the third time this season that Tampa Bay is an underdog. The first was that Week 1 loss in New Orleans. The other was an outright win against Green Bay here at home. Brady is 10-1 ATS with nine outright wins as a home dog in his illustrious career. That earlier win against the Packers marked just the 4th time in the last 15 seasons that Brady has been a home dog. He’s won outright all four times. Brady is also 15-8 ATS coming off a Monday night game. I think this is a great value as my power rankings still say TB should be a slight favorite here. Kansas City brings in a vaunted reputation as the defending Super Bowl champs. They are 9-1 SU this season and just avenged their only defeat by beating the Raiders last Sunday night. But they needed a last minute TD to get the win in Vegas and it was the second straight win by four points or less. The defense allowed 31 points to both the Panthers and Raiders. They’ve been particularly susceptible against the pass. The Bucs’ defense, which is outstanding against the run (#1 in the league), can make the Chiefs’ offense one-dimensional. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay |
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11-29-20 | Raiders v. Falcons +3 | Top | 6-43 | Win | 103 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): After playing well in front of a national television audience, the Raiders were the recipients of some “early money” this week, getting bet up to the current price. We had ‘em last Sunday night when they covered against the Chiefs and almost took the game outright. But they lost, 35-31, and what’s interesting here is that this is just the third time all season Las Vegas has been favored! Atlanta has been a giant disappointment in 2020 (already fired their HC), but I don’t think they should be a dog here. The Falcons were off their bye last week and facing a QB making his first career start (Taysom Hill). But you can’t discount just how good the Saints are playing right now. Atlanta ended up losing 24-9, dropping them to 3-7 SU on the year. What was so disappointing about LW’s loss is that the Falcons had been playing better before the bye. They’d won three of four games with the only loss coming by 1 point. Looking at the remaining schedule, which is just brutal, this is probably the Falcons’ best shot at picking up another win for interim HC Raheem Morris. I firmly believe that bettors have overreacted to Las Vegas; close call vs. Kansas City last week. Remember that game was at home. That the Raiders have been favored only twice so far is a clear indication that they have overachieved. Factoring in the fact this game is in Atlanta, I’ve got it rated as a toss-up. The Falcons haven’t been a home dog this season. Matt Ryan, who was sacked eight times by the Saints, should have a much better game this week against the #28 rated pass defense. Also, Las Vegas has the 2nd fewest sacks in the league with 11. The Falcons are better than their record while the Raiders (who have been outgained by their opponents) aren’t as good as theirs. 8* Atlanta |
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11-29-20 | Giants v. Bengals +6.5 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Ok, so the Bengals’ season appears pretty much done. They are 2-7-1 SU and now have to go the rest of the way without starting QB Joe Burrow. They lost the #1 overall draft pick for the remainder of the season last week in Washington. Shell-shocked, they were shutout in the second half and lost 24-9. It should be pointed out that they were winning going into the break. This line has seen the most movement of any on the board this week as Cincinnnati was to be a short home favorite. With Burrow out and backup Brandon Allen to start in his place, the Giants are now a significant road favorite. The Giants should never be a road favorite of this size. Against anybody. I don’t care if Burrow is out; I don’t think he’s worth this much to the pointspread. While New York has been a covering machine on the road as of late (8-0 ATS L8), they haven’t been a road favorite of more than four points in almost four years. This is the 1st time since 2012 that a team with a win percentage of .333 or worse is a road favorite of more than a field goal. Since 1990, such teams are just 3-7 STRAIGHT UP! As a reminder, the Giants’ SU record is 3-7 with two of those wins coming by a combined four points against Washington. With Burrow, the Bengals were pretty good at keeping games close. Four of their seven losses have come by five points or less. Two of the exceptions came against the Steelers and Ravens. The other was last week, but the good news is that Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS off a loss this year. Allen at least has starting experience in this league and is probably an upgrade over the team’s other backup, Ryan Finley. The Giants have zero wins outside the division this year. They are the ONLY team in the league w/o a 3-game win streak the L4 seasons. Take the points. 8* Cincinnati |
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11-29-20 | Browns v. Jaguars +7.5 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): So this probably could go one of two ways for the Jaguars. Either they pull an outright upset, or they get blown out. At 1-9 SU (that one win came in Wk 1), the Jags are turning to Mike Glennon at QB this week. It will be Glennon’s first NFL start in more than three years. It’s not an ideal spot to return to the starting role as the Jags will be missing numerous players - on both sides of the ball - due to COVID. But make no mistake about it, this play is a clear fade on Cleveland, who also has COVID issues. The Browns are a surprising 7-3 SU this year, but they’ve taken advantage of a very weak schedule. Even more damning is the fact they have a -23 point differential. That’s worse than the 3-7 Chargers, who have a -13 point differential. Cleveland has also been fortunate to go 4-0 SU in one-score games this season. Two of those wins have come the L2 weeks, 10-7 over Houston and 22-17 against Philadelphia. The offense has scored 22 points or less in 4 of the last 5 games, scoring 10 or less three times! This will also be the Browns’ first time playing on the road in November! Their last three games were all at home. If they close at -7, it will mark the first time they’ve been favored by that many on the road since Bill Belichick was roaming the sidelines in 1995! Baker Mayfield, who I believe to be a below-average NFL QB, is just 7-11-2 ATS as a favorite in his pro career. That includes 1-5 on the road with four outright losses. By the way, the Browns are just 1-4 ATS their L5 games overall. They will be without five players, one of them Myles Garrett, and haven’t been able to practice together much this week. Hold your nose and take the points. 8* Jacksonville |
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11-29-20 | Chargers +4.5 v. Bills | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
8* LA Chargers (1:00 ET): As I’ve harped on many times before, how a team performs in close games will largely dictate how the overall season goes. For further evidence of that, let’s look at the Chargers and Bills in 2020. Los Angeles has only been outscored by 13 points, but is 3-7 SU due to the fact they’ve lost 7 of 9 one-possession games. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 7-3 SU despite only a +7 point differential because they are 5-1 in one score games. The Chargers are better than their record while the reverse is true for the Bills. This is similar to the Raiders-Falcons game, so once again we’re taking the points. The Chargers are actually off a close WIN, though there was no reason for that game to be close. They held on to beat the winless Jets 34-28 after opening up a 31-13 lead in the second half. Holding leads has been a problem all season for the Lightning Bolts as they’ve lost four games in which they held a DD lead. That’s not good. But leading the likes of Kansas City, New Orleans and Tampa Bay by double digits shows this team has got talent. Rookie QB Justin Herbert has played great. The fact the team is a dog this week is appealing in that we’re “safe” were they to lose close again. But I expect them to win this week. Buffalo suffered its lone close loss of the season two weeks ago when Arizona completed a Hail Mary. They had a week off (bye) to reflect on letting that one get away. Bottom line though is that they were outgained by the Cardinals and gave up 453 yards. The Bills defense has taken a step back this season as it is giving up 6.1 yards per play. The Chargers rank 3rd (in the league!) in total offense. So far, Buffalo is just 2-2 SU when facing top five offenses. The Chargers are 9-4-2 ATS as a road underdog under HC Anthony Lynn and 46-21-5 ATS in the role since 2004. Herbert is 3-0 ATS as a dog of five or more points. This “smells” like an upset. 8* LA Chargers |
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11-29-20 | Chargers v. Bills UNDER 53 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
9* Under Chargers/Bills (1:00 ET): I realize this is a “total” contrarian move with the Chargers having gone Over in each of their last seven games and the Bills doing so in their last three. But it’s a high number. For the Chargers, the team that has gone Over in seven straight, there’s a chance this O/U line could close as the highest for any game so far this season. (It’s been as high as 54.5 at some shops earlier in the week). There’s been only one previous Chargers’ game this year where the O/U line closed north of 50. There have definitely been some “extenuating” circumstances helping these Chargers’ games go Over of late. For instance, each of the last two weeks they’ve had a punt blocked after their first possession! Both times the punt block led to their opponent scoring a touchdown. Despite that occurrence, it looked liked the game vs. Miami two weeks ago was still going to Under. But LA scored a “garbage time” TD in the final two minutes to send it Over. Last week against the Jets, the Chargers scored a defensive TD. Plus there was a safety at the end of the game. Buffalo is off its bye week. They probably needed it considering the manner in which they lost to Arizona the prior week (Hail Mary). The Bills are more used to these high totals. But they are not immune to a poor offensive game. Before busting out against the two NFC West teams (Arizona, Seattle) the L2 games, they’d scored 24 or less four straight games. The Under has cashed the last five times the Bills have been off a SU loss. Also, the Chargers are 39-19-1 Under the L59 times they’ve been off a win. 9* Under Chargers/Bills |
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Bryan Power NFL Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-03-21 | Panthers v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
09-30-21 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Bengals | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Jets +10.5 v. Broncos | Top | 0-26 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Washington Football Team +7 v. Bills | Top | 21-43 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Cardinals v. Jaguars +8 | Top | 31-19 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers -11.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | Top | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Falcons +13 v. Bucs | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Raiders v. Steelers UNDER 47 | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
09-19-21 | 49ers v. Eagles +3 | Top | 17-11 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Broncos v. Jaguars +6 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team OVER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team -3.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 51 | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 18 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams OVER 46.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Browns +5.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Vikings -3 v. Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -106 | 43 h 4 m | Show |
09-12-21 | 49ers v. Lions +9 | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 43 h 4 m | Show |
02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 288 h 31 m | Show |
02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs UNDER 56 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 103 h 38 m | Show |
01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 75 h 26 m | Show |
01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers UNDER 51.5 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -103 | 72 h 50 m | Show |
01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints UNDER 52 | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 5 m | Show |
01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs UNDER 57.5 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 51 h 30 m | Show |
01-16-21 | Ravens +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -100 | 76 h 12 m | Show |
01-16-21 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 18-32 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints UNDER 47.5 | Top | 9-21 | Win | 100 | 52 h 29 m | Show |
01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +9 | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 42 m | Show |
01-09-21 | Rams +3.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
01-09-21 | Colts +7 v. Bills | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 32 m | Show |
01-03-21 | Seahawks v. 49ers +6.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 53 h 53 m | Show |
01-03-21 | Titans v. Texans +7.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 53 m | Show |
01-03-21 | Packers v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 35-16 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots +7 | Top | 38-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 46.5 | Top | 38-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers UNDER 54 | Top | 14-40 | Push | 0 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
12-27-20 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 47 | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -120 | 125 h 36 m | Show |
12-27-20 | Colts v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
12-27-20 | Browns v. Jets +10 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders UNDER 48 | Top | 26-25 | Loss | -108 | 54 h 36 m | Show |
12-26-20 | 49ers +5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
12-25-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -136 | 45 h 27 m | Show |
12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 40 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
12-20-20 | Browns v. Giants +6.5 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 36 m | Show |
12-20-20 | Chiefs v. Saints +3 | Top | 32-29 | Push | 0 | 54 h 41 m | Show |
12-20-20 | Bucs v. Falcons +6 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
12-20-20 | Patriots v. Dolphins -1 | Top | 12-22 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
12-20-20 | Patriots v. Dolphins OVER 41.5 | Top | 12-22 | Loss | -103 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
12-20-20 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team +6 | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos +6 | Top | 48-19 | Loss | -104 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
12-17-20 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
12-14-20 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | Top | 47-42 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
12-13-20 | Steelers +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -102 | 94 h 29 m | Show |
12-13-20 | Saints v. Eagles OVER 42 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
12-13-20 | Cowboys v. Bengals +4 | Top | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 10 m | Show |
12-13-20 | Texans v. Bears +1.5 | Top | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 87 h 9 m | Show |
12-13-20 | Chiefs v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 87 h 9 m | Show |
12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams OVER 44.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
12-06-20 | Patriots v. Chargers +1 | Top | 45-0 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
12-06-20 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 48.5 | Top | 16-30 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 11 m | Show |
12-06-20 | Raiders v. Jets +9 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 91 h 7 m | Show |
12-06-20 | Jaguars v. Vikings UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles +6 | Top | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
11-29-20 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
11-29-20 | Raiders v. Falcons +3 | Top | 6-43 | Win | 103 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
11-29-20 | Giants v. Bengals +6.5 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
11-29-20 | Browns v. Jaguars +7.5 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
11-29-20 | Chargers +4.5 v. Bills | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
11-29-20 | Chargers v. Bills UNDER 53 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |