Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 152 h 17 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): Cincinnati has been a wonderful story this season, making it to just their third Super Bowl in history. This is a franchise that had not won a playoff game going all the way back to 1990. But let’s be frank here; the Bengals have been outgained on a per play basis in each of the last three games. In their first AFC Championship Game appearance since 1988, they found themselves down 21-3 to the Chiefs, yet somehow pulled out a miraculous 27-24 overtime win. The Bengals feel like they will be a very “public dog” come Super Sunday, thus I’m going to fade them. I think people are forgetting that this is the second time in four years that the Rams are appearing in the Super Bowl. The last time didn’t go well as they lost 13-3 to the Patriots in the lowest scoring SB ever. But this Rams team is better AND playing on its home field. Now, SoFi Stadium isn’t exactly the strongest homefield advantage in the league. But the Rams are 7-3 SU here this season and know the place well. Let’s not forget what happened in LY’s SB when Tampa Bay, playing on its homefield, destroyed Kansas City. It’s pretty interesting that no team played in its home stadium for the first 49 Super Bowls and now it’s happened two years in a row. The Rams have pretty clearly been the better team in all three of their playoff games. They boat raced Arizona (in this stadium), then went on the road and took a 27-3 lead over Tampa Bay. That game should have never ended up being so close at the end. In the NFC Championship, the Rams did trail most of the way, but also outgained the 49ers 396-282. The big key in this matchup is the Rams’ defense, which is easily the best Cincinnati will have faced this season. Incredibly, the Bengals have faced just ONE top 10 defense in 2021-22! Again, it’s been a nice story out of Cincy, but look for it to end poorly and this team to regress next year. The Rams are simply better. 10* LA Rams |
|||||||
01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): So the 49ers swept the regular season series and have now beaten the Rams six straight times (while going 5-1 ATS). I actually had the Niners in both regular season matchups. The first time they were 3.5 point underdogs at home on MNF. That was the game that really turned around their season. San Fran was just 3-5 SU at that time and hadn’t won a home game in more than a year. They ended up prevailing rather easily, 31-10. The second meeting had far more importance as this time the Niners needed to win to make the playoffs. That’s why I took them plus the points and it ended up being a 27-24 outright win in overtime. While the Niners were deserved winners here in LA back in Week 18 (ended up +184 in total yards), allow me to remind you that the Rams led 17-0 at halftime. It is the only time during his head coaching tenure that Sean McVay lost a game when leading at the break (45-0). The 49ers again rallied from a halftime deficit in the Divisional Round, ousting the top seeded Packers on a last second field goal, 13-10. But remember that wouldn’t have been possible without returning a blocked punt for a TD in the 4Q. I’m aware that the Niners have been real “road warriors” in recent years, but their luck is about to run out here. Let’s start with the fact that no team has won four straight games, all on the road, without a bye since 1961. Teams in the playoffs that are playing their fourth consecutive road game are 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. I think the 49ers were a little lucky to prevail against both Dallas (who had bad clock management) and Green Bay (gained only 212 total yards). The Rams have been far more impressive in their two playoff wins, routing Arizona 34-11 and taking a 27-3 lead at Tampa Bay. I find it very hard to believe that the Rams would lose a seventh straight time to the Niners. They didn’t have anything to really play for the last time. Jimmy G remains a liability for a team that easily could have lost all of its last three games. Lay the points. 10* LA Rams |
|||||||
01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
9* Under Bengals/Chiefs (3:00 ET): These teams met in the regular season and it quickly turned into a shootout with the Bengals eventually coming out on top, 34-31 as 3.5-point underdogs. But that game took place in Cincinnati. I don’t see these young upstarts beating KC twice in the same season. There’s only been one instance of Chiefs QB Mahomes losing twice to the same team in the same season. I also don’t think this game will be as high scoring as the original. The O/U line closed at 51.0 for the regular season meetings. It’s predictable that the number for the rematch is a few points higher and that the majority of bettors are on the Over. Especially since the last seven Chiefs’ games have all gone Over. But, every Bengals game since the win over the Chiefs has gone Under the total. They could barely muster 300 total yards against the Raiders in the Wild Card Game and the offense frequently fizzled against a defense that was last in red zone efficiency. Last week, the Bengals managed only one touchdown in the win over the Titans and got 10 points off turnovers, including the GW FG. On the bright side, one of two touchdowns allowed by the Bengals’ defense last week came on a short field. Stopping Mahomes will obviously be more difficult. But - with just two minutes left in regulation against the Bills - the Chiefs had “only” 26 points. The Cincinnati defense is only allowing 16.9 PPG on the road, which is why the Under is 7-2 in those games (just 42.3 PPG total scored). The Chiefs allow only 19.5 PPG at home where the total number of PPG scored is 48.5. I see value with the Under here. 9* Under Bengals/Chiefs |
|||||||
01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (3:00 ET): These teams met in the regular season and it quickly turned into a shootout with the Bengals eventually coming out on top, 34-31 as 3.5-point underdogs. But that game took place in Cincinnati. I don’t see these young upstarts beating KC twice in the same season. There’s only been one instance of Chiefs QB Mahomes losing twice to the same team in the same season. The loss to the Bengals is the only time KC has gone down since early November and they’ve put up 42 points in each playoff win. The Bengals have done well as underdogs this season, but KC is just the 11th team in the Super Bowl era to be favored in each of its first 19 games. The last four have all gone on to the Super Bowl. This will be the 13th consecutive time the Chiefs have been favored to win in the playoffs, the last 10 all coming with Mahomes as QB, a stretch that has seen the team go 7-3 ATS. They are 4-1 ATS when favored by at least four points, as they are here. Cincy just has the feeling of a “public dog” in this spot. They deserve kudos for making it thus far, but also beat a subpar Raiders team in the Wild Card Round, then arguably the weakest #1 seed we’ve ever seen (Tennessee) last weekend. Kansas City beat a subpar Pittsburgh team in Wild Card Weekend, but then ousted the #1 team in my power rankings (Buffalo) last week. The Chiefs’ offense has averaged 7.5 yards per play in the two playoff wins! The Bengals have actually been outgained on a per play basis in both of their playoff wins. Lay the points. 8* Kansas City |
|||||||
01-23-22 | Bills +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -113 | 99 h 24 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (6:30 ET): The Bills looked pretty “Super” to me in destroying New England 47-17 last week, so - as underdogs - I’m making them my 10* Game of the Year this Sunday at Kansas City. Yes, the Chiefs looked pretty strong in their own right in the Wild Card Round. But that was against a subpar Steelers team that had no business even being in the playoff field. Let us not forget how the Bills came to Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season (Week 5) and really beat the Chiefs up, then walking away 38-20 winners. The Patriots team that the Bills destroyed last week were #3 in the league in regular season point differential. So that was a much more impressive win than what KC did vs. Pittsburgh. Really, I haven’t seen many more impressive performances than what the Bills turned in last Saturday. They scored touchdowns on all seven drives that did not end with a kneel down at the end of a half. This against a top five regular season defense. Prior to backup QB Mitchell Trubisky coming in for “mop-up duty” (three kneel downs), the Bills’ offense gained 480 total yards on just 51 total plays. Let’s talk about the Bills’ defense for a moment. It allowed the fewest points during the regular season, resulting in the league’s point differential. Another area where the Bills are #1 in the NFL in yards per play differential. So this is going to be a big step up in class for the Chiefs, who have a bit of a misleading 7-3 SU record vs. fellow playoff teams (including last week). Four of those seven wins were against the Raiders and Steelers, the two worst playoff teams. They also beat Philadelphia early in the season (Week 3) and Green Bay w/o Aaron Rodgers. Buffalo should have had a better record, but was 0-5 in one-score games. The Bills are my #1 rated team in the power rankings and should win here. Take the points. 10* Buffalo |
|||||||
01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 20 m | Show |
8* Under Bills/Chiefs (6:30 ET): The Bills offense played nearly perfect football vs. New England in the Wild Card Round. Against a top five defense (#2 in scoring), they scored touchdowns on all seven drives that did not end in a kneel down. Before backup QB Mitchell Trubisky came in for “kneel down duty” at the end of the game, Buffalo had 480 total yards on 51 plays. I really respect this offense, but repeating last week’s performance will be impossible. Kansas City dominated in the Wild Card Round as well. Don’t be fooled by them allowing 21 points either. One of Pittsburgh’s touchdowns was from the defense. In the first half, the Steelers’ offense never crossed midfield and had just 40 yards on 26 plays (excluding kneel down). That was reminiscent of the stretch in the regular season when the Chiefs allowed 17 points or less in six straight games. At home this season, they are allowing just 17.9 PPG. The Chiefs will NOT keep the Bills in check like they did the Steelers, but I do see KC’s six-game Over run coming to an end here. These teams met in the regular season, here at Arrowhead, with the Bills winning 38-20. That included a defensive touchdown by the Bills. Take that away and the game would have stayed Under. Note the Chiefs only scored 20 points. Buffalo has the league’s top scoring defense at 17.0 PPG allowed and even on the road they allow only 17.5. This game will be lower-scoring than expected. I know that it seems risky, but take the Under. 8* Under Bills/Chiefs |
|||||||
01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 51 m | Show |
8* Under Rams/Buccaneers (3:00 ET): So these teams met in the regular season. The Rams won 34-24, but that was at home. It was a turnover free game (for both sides) where the Rams - at one point - scored on six consecutive drives. The Bucs didn’t exactly have problems moving the football either, but they missed a field goal and turned it over on downs in the fourth quarter. For a variety of reasons, I don’t see the rematch being nearly as high scoring. Take the Under. The Rams were 34-11 winners over Arizona in the Wild Card Round. That included a defensive TD (thanks to an atrocious decision by Kyler Murray), which pretty much put the game away. While Matt Stafford getting his first career playoff win grabbed the headlines, don’t discount what the Rams’ defense did to the Cardinals. They held them to just 183 total yards (just 3.4 yards per play), most of that coming when the game was already well in hand. Holding Tom Brady and company in check like that might seem unrealistic. But the Rams’ defense has now had seven straight games of holding opponents to 24 points or less in regulation. That was the number they held TB to back in Week 3. The Bucs were 31-15 winners on Wild Card Weekend, easily dispatching of the Eagles. But while the final result was never in doubt, take note that TB was actually outgained on a per play basis. Some of that has to do with all of the points and most of the yards allowed by the defense coming in the 4Q. Going into the fourth, Philly was scoreless and had less than 200 total yards. But still, Brady and the offense gained just 4.5 yards per play and clearly benefited from a muffed punt that led to a touchdown. 8* Under Rams/Buccaneers |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (8:15 ET): The Cardinals and Rams split two regular season meetings, both winning on the road. That’s the exact same scenario we had with Patriots-Bills on Saturday (a game where I backed the Bills, as part of a teaser, at home). I’ll do the same here with the Rams, figuring it’s highly unlikely that the home team would lose all three meetings in a season series. I know that Arizona has been the quintessential “road warrior” this season (8-1 SU/ATS), but my view is that the Rams are the better team. It wasn’t just the Cardinals’ road record that defied logic in the regular season. They also come into the playoffs a perfect 6-0 ATS as underdogs this year, winning straight up all six times. Per ESPN’s Stats & Info department, it’s the most outright wins as a dog in a single season, without a loss, during the Super Bowl Era! But this is no longer the same team that started the year 7-0 SU. They went just 4-6 SU down the stretch and no longer have WR DeAndre Hopkins, a major loss. This will also be QB Kyler Murray’s first playoff game. The Rams are better built for the playoffs than the Cardinals. They’ve also played better down the stretch. Los Angeles hasn’t lost a game in regulation since November 28th at Lambeau Field. That run includes a 30-23 win at Arizona on MNF. HC Sean McVay has owned Arizona during his tenure here, going 9-1 SU and ATS. Going back to that Arizona underdog trend, teams with a perfect ATS regular season record as dogs (at least two wins) cash only 40% in the playoffs. 10* LA Rams |
|||||||
01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 46.5 | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Steelers/Chiefs (8:15 ET): Of the six matchups on the NFL’s “Super” Wild Card Weekend, all but one features teams that met in the regular season. This is one of those as Kansas City drubbed Pittsburgh 36-10, three weeks ago, here at Arrowhead. It’s difficult for me to envision a subpar Steelers team that was outscored by 55 points in the regular season, winning here. But this is certainly a big number to lay in the playoffs. The Steelers’ defense should ensure that this rematch is at least a little closer than the original. But I’m not expecting much scoring by the road team either. Kansas City heads into the playoffs on a 5-0 Over run. But let’s not forget about the seven-week stretch of regular season games where they held six teams to 17 points or fewer. At home, the Chiefs’ defense is allowing just 17.1 PPG. I don’t see them really being threatened here by a Steelers’ offense that has been beyond anemic, particularly in the first halves of games this year. The Steelers are averaging just 6.7 PPG in the 1H this year. Put them on the road and that number drops to a near unfathomable 3.6 PPG! They can’t run (3.9 YPC) and barely average 20 PPG. In six of the last eight games, Pittsburgh has gained less than 315 total yards. Kansas City should feel pretty comfortable about their chances of winning here. Patrick Mahomes is 42-1 SU as the starter when the defense does NOT give up 27+ points. Clearly, I don’t see the Steelers scoring THAT many. But I do see this being lower scoring than the regular season game, which makes Under the call. The Chiefs’ offense actually put up fewer points at home (than on the road) this season and gained fewer yards, per game and per play. Five of the Steelers’ last six games did not exceed 46 points and four of those had 40 points or fewer. 10* Under Steelers/Chiefs |
|||||||
01-16-22 | 49ers v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -125 | 43 h 21 m | Show |
8* Dallas (4:30 ET): This is the lone Wild Card game where the teams involved did NOT meet in the regular season. Perhaps the uncertainty of how this game will look is the reason oddsmakers set such a “vanilla” number, but in my opinion the line is far too low. Dallas led the NFC in point differential (+172) and while it should be noted they really did beat up on their lousy division (NFC East), part of their league-best 12-5 ATS mark was a 10-3 ATS record when favored. I really have a hard time believing that Jimmy Garoppolo is going to win a playoff game on the road. Now that may seem strange because of the fact I took Jimmy G and the Niners last week, plus the points, against the Rams. But that was a situation where they NEEDED to win and the Rams had already clinched a playoff spot. Despite that dynamic, SF found itself down 17-0 in the first half. They tied the game with a late TD in regulation before winning on a FG in overtime. Now had the 49ers been matched up with another team here in the Wild Card Round, I might have considered them. But this is a bad matchup. The 49ers’ defense allowed 51 pass plays of 20+ yards. That sounds bad when getting set to face this Cowboys’ offense. With receivers CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper healthy, which they are now, this is a tough group to stop. Dallas averages 36.4 PPG at home! On the flip side, San Francisco is 2-6 SU this season when Garoppolo throws two or more interceptions. The Cowboys have a +14 turnover differential. I have too much respect for the Cowboys, who are #1 in DVOA, not to take them here at home. 8* Dallas |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Raiders v. Bengals UNDER 48.5 | Top | 19-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
10* Under Raiders/Bengals (4:30 ET): When these teams met in the regular season, it was 32-13 Bengals, but that was a little bit misleading as both teams gained less than 300 total yards. I don’t see this rematch being higher scoring, so Under is a logical call here. It was only 13-6 going into the 4Q in Vegas back in Week 11. It was 16-13 with just over five minutes to go. After capping a 62-yard drive with a JaMar Chase TD, the Bengals piled on 10 more points due to two late Derek Carr interceptions. It was a somewhat misleading final. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow led the NFL in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. But he actually threw for a season-low 148 yards when he faced the Raiders. The Bengals’ offense had just one play of 20+ yards in that game and it was a Joe Mixon run. Burrow has been sacked a league-leading 51 times. The Raiders don’t send a ton of pressure, but as we saw last week against the Chargers, Maxx Crosby can certainly be a disrupting presence. I do think the Bengals will still win this game, however, and that’s mainly because I don’t expect a ton from a Las Vegas offense that is far too dependent on drawing PI calls to move the sticks. Even with a full overtime session last week, the Raiders still only gained 346 total yards. Even during their four-game win streak (four wins by a total of 12 points), their offense was just 18th in the league in yards per drive. Before last week, they had been held to 17 pts or less in five of the previous seven games. 10* Under Raiders/Bengals |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Chargers -3 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (8:20 ET): In the name of point differential, the Chargers MUST win this game. They have outscored opponents by 18 points this season. That’s certainly nothing special, but it’s what you’d expect from a 9-7 SU team that’s trying to grab one of the final playoff spots in the AFC. It’s far more impressive than Las Vegas, who is also 9-7 SU but has been outscored this year by 68 points. It is my view that the Raiders do not belong in the playoffs. Look for the Chargers to win (and cover) the final game of the regular season. These teams met back in Week 4 and I had the foresight to get down on Los Angeles, who went on to win 28-14. It was 21-0 at halftime and the Chargers finished with a 380-213 edge in total yards and 25-13 edge in first downs. For this rematch, yes the game is in Vegas, but the Raiders haven’t shown much of a home field advantage at Allegiant Stadium (3-5 SU here this season) and it’s not like the Chargers benefited from any home field edge at So-Fi Stadium (they have the weakest home field advantage in the league). Assuming that the Colts win earlier in the day (to move to 10-7 SU), then this becomes a “winner take all” game for the final playoff spot. If the Colts somehow lost, which is unlikely as they are facing the Jaguars, then BOTH of these teams could make the playoffs with a tie. I think the idea of playing for a tie in today’s NFL seems absurd. So I’m banking on Justin Herbert, who has previously led his team to victories in Kansas City, Philadelphia and Cincinnati (all playoff teams). The Raiders are a very lucky 6-2 SU in one-score games. Their luck runs out here. 10* LA Chargers |
|||||||
01-09-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
01-09-22 | 49ers +4.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
9* San Francisco (4:25 ET): The 49ers (9-7 SU) need to win this game to ensure they make the playoffs. They could also get in with a Saints loss, but given who the Saints are facing (Falcons), they shouldn’t count on that. The Rams (12-4 SU) need a win here to clinch the NFC West. So both teams are invested in this Week 18 matchup. But the stakes are clearly higher for San Francisco, who has already beaten the Rams once this season, 31-10. I’ll take them plus the points in the rematch. I was on the Niners the first time these teams met. It was on MNF and quickly turned into a blowout as it was 14-0 after the first quarter. For the entirety of the second half, the Niners would maintain a two touchdown advantage. That was the game that really turned their season around. SF was only 3-5 SU heading into the game. They’ve won six of eight since. The two losses, both on the road, were by seven points or less. They clearly should have won the game in Tennessee. Believe it or not, the 49ers now rank 3rd in the league in yards per play differential, a metric that I really value. Now the big story heading into Week 18 is who will play QB for San Francisco. HC Kyle Shanahan and his team obviously knows, but the Rams do not. I view this as an obvious edge for the underdog. Jimmy Garoppolo, who missed last week due to a right thumb injury, reportedly had a “good week of practice.” So he could be back in the starting lineup. Or it might be rookie Trey Lance, who guided the team to an easy 23-7 win over the Texans last week. Either way, I like the Niners plus the points over a Rams team that’s been a little lucky the last few weeks. 9* San Francisco |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 48 | Top | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
8* Over Seahawks/Cardinals (4:25 ET): Seattle (6-10 SU) has nothing to play for here while Arizona (11-5) can still win the NFC West by winning this game and the Rams losing to the 49ers. That’s hardly the unlikeliest of scenarios and it’s tough not to expect the Cardinals to win here, given they easily defeated the Seahawks earlier in the year, 23-13, with Colt McCoy at QB. But given the fact Seattle has a +21 point differential for the season (they are better than their record), I’m not about to lay this many points here. The Seahawks put up 51 points in the home finale last week. Granted, that came against the Lions, but it was the third time in the last five weeks that they put up 30 or more points. Four of those five games went Over the total. Expect a much better offensive effort out of Seattle here, compared to the first meeting with Arizona, which was just the second game back for Russell Wilson after finger surgery. The Seattle offense also now has RB Penny, who is coming off a career-best 170 yard day. Arizona ended a three-game losing skid with a surprise 25-22 win over Dallas last week. This offense went for over 400 yards the first time it faced the Seattle defense. Again, that was with Colt McCoy under center. The Cardinals will need to continue scoring, given the defense has allowed 22 points or more in five straight games. Fortunately, they have Kyler Murray, who is set to become the first QB in NFL history with 3,500+ yards passing and 400+ yards rushing in each of his first three seasons. I see this game going Over. 8* Over Seahawks/Cardinals |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Steelers +5 v. Ravens | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 26 m | Show |
9* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Both teams are mathematically alive for the playoffs, but it’s going to take plenty of help. The Steelers obviously must win here, then have the Jaguars beat the Colts and hope Chargers-Raiders doesn’t end in a tie. The Ravens’ chances are even more bleak as they need to win and have the Colts, Dolphins and Chargers all lose. I don’t think much of Pittsburgh (-58 point differential), but Baltimore (five straight losses with four coming by two points or less!) is a sinking ship right now. So take the points. It was announced Friday that Lamar Jackson will miss his fourth straight game due to a right ankle injury. The Ravens haven’t won since their QB got hurt, although the two games started by Tyler Huntley were both one-point losses. But don’t forget they were dominated at home by the Packers before making things interesting late. Then they were dominated by the Bengals with Jackson and Huntley both out. Last week, with Huntley back, the Ravens blew a 16-7 4Q lead and lost to the Rams 20-19. I just don’t see this team “getting off the mat” after such a slew of close losses. Pittsburgh is off an emotional Monday night in what was likely Ben Roethlisberger’s final home game. They beat the Browns 26-14. It was the Steelers that began the Ravens’ downfall with a 20-19 win back on December 5th, the first of two times John Harbaugh infamous went for two and the win, only to fail and lose the game. While the Steelers have been shakier on the road of late, I like that their defense is giving up only 4.7 yards per play the last three weeks while the Ravens’ defense has allowed 7.4 YPP over the same time. The Steelers are 34-15-2 ATS L51 tries as an underdog. 9* Pittsburgh |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | Top | 51-26 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
8* Under Cowboys/Eagles (8:15 ET): With both teams having already clinched a playoff spot, and little chance to improve seeding, don’t expect many fireworks here on Saturday night. Certainly, this will be nothing like the first meeting, which was a 41-21 win by the Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Dallas will play its starters, but for how long remains to be seen. Philadelphia is dealing with a COVID outbreak and QB Jalen Hurts has an ankle sprain. So they won’t resemble the team that’s won six of seven. Even if Hurts does play, I don’t see the Eagles doing much offensively, even though the Cowboys are thin at linebacker. Certainly, Philly is going to want to keep it conservative in preparation for next week’s road playoff game (likely against Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay). Philly may lead the league in rushing, but their RB group is very thin right now. My expectation here is that by the second half you’ll have Gardner Minshew at QB with a third-string RB. That could be the dynamic for the entire game, honestly. The Dallas’ offense has declined in recent weeks - with one notable exception - the MNF beatdown of Washington. But that was at home. The Cowboys’ points per game average dips dramatically on the road, all the way down to 23.5 from 36.4 at home. Fortunately, their defense is allowing only 19.4 PPG in road games. The Eagles defense, while not exactly facing a slew of great QBs, has held its last five opponents to 14.8 PPG. The key here is that scoring should come to a grinding halt after halftime. 8* Under Cowboys/Eagles |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos +11 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
10* Denver (4:35 ET): Last week’s loss to Cincinnati means Kansas City essentially blew its opportunity to gain home field advantage in the playoffs. They still have a chance at being the top seed, mind you, but that would require not just winning here, but also Tennessee losing to Houston on Sunday, which probably isn’t going to happen. Now the Chiefs still do have some motivation on Saturday. A win would guarantee them no lower than the two-seed, meaning the possibility of two home playoff games. But I don’t think that necessarily guarantees they will go out and win by double digits here. Take the points here. After a 3-0 start to the season, the Broncos are just 4-9 in their L13 games, leaving them at 19-29 SU in HC Vic Fangio’s three seasons here. There’s a lot more questions than answers for this team as it will miss the postseason for a sixth straight year. But Denver does have a great defense, one that is ninth overall in yards allowed, third in scoring, seventh against the pass and 14th against the run. They will be missing a few starters on that side of the ball for this final game, but recall that they were able to limit KC QB Mahomes to just 15 completions - and zero touchdown passes - in the first meeting, which was a very misleading 22-9 loss. In that loss, the Broncos actually outgained the Chiefs 404-267 and had seven more first downs for the game. But they were limited to just three field goals and turned it over three times, one of which was an interception returned for a TD. That was the 12th straight loss for Denver to KC and while I don’t see that streak ending Saturday, look for the Broncos - thanks to their defense - to keep this one close. I think it’s going to be tough for KC to “get up” for this game after blowing a 28-14 lead at Cincinnati last week. The Chiefs’ defense gave up 475 yards, so there’s hope for Drew Lock and the Denver offense. 10* Denver |
|||||||
01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers UNDER 42 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Browns/Steelers (8:15 ET): After the events of Sunday, the Browns are eliminated from playoff contention. The Steelers basically are as well. So it’s all about “pride” Monday Night. Cleveland has revenge for a 15-10 home loss on Halloween, which dropped their all-time record vs. Ben Roethlisberger to a woeful 3-24-1. This will almost certainly be Big Ben’s final home game in a Steelers uniform and I’m sure his teammates will want to send him off with a win. Given how poorly these offenses have performed much of this season, I’m expecting this to be a low-scoring game. Take the Under. I won with the Under in the Browns’ game last week, which ended up being a 24-22 loss in Green Bay. Embattled QB Baker Mayfield played horribly, tossing four interceptions. As discussed in the analysis for that X-mas Day play, the Browns’ offense had previously been held to 17 points or less in seven of nine games. Excluding defensive TD’s, they’ve topped 22 just twice since Week 3. Luckily, the defense has kept the Browns in many games this season. It has allowed 24 points or less in eight of the last nine games and has allowed 16 points or less in half the games this season. It’s not a great Pittsburgh offense anymore. They’ve failed to score a single touchdown in the first half since Week 11. Personally, I don’t think the Steelers are any good; they’ve been outscored by 70 points this year and have been behind by double digits in five of the last six games. They’ve led for about 10 minutes of actual game time in that stretch. In four division games so far, the Steelers’ offense has averaged just 13.8 PPG. But I still trust the defense. The last two home games have seen the Steelers allow just 19 and 13 points. Both of those went Under. So will this one. 10* Under Browns/Steelers |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Vikings v. Packers -13 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (8:25 ET): The Packers should destroy the Vikings Sunday Night as the road team will be without QB Kirk Cousins. This is a revenge game for Green Bay, which lost the first meeting in Minnesota, 34-31 on a last second field goal. While they lost, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense averaged an impressive 8.6 yards per play against the Vikings’ defense. At home, the Packers are 7-0 this season and averaging 29.7 PPG. The Vikings’ defensive numbers get much worse on the road. While Rodgers figures to lead the Packers’ offense to a big day, you can’t expect much here from the Minnesota offense. The loss of Cousins is huge as he threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting. It will be Sean Mannion making just his third career start on Sunday night and he won’t have WR Adam Thielen to throw to. It’s expected to be very cold in Lambeau, which will have an adverse effect on a Vikings team that plays its home games indoors. The defense gives up 26.9 PPG on the road. Green Bay is a perfect 4-0 ATS in primetime games this season and 12-4 ATS in them all-time under HC Matt LaFleur. Overall, they are 11-4 ATS this season, including 6-1 at home. Rodgers has been absolutely on fire of late with a 16-0 TD-INT ratio the last five games. He is 25-12 ATS at home vs. NFC North teams. The Packers are looking to lock down home field advantage for the NFC playoffs, which would be huge for them given their record at Lambeau. I am predicting this will easily be the Vikings’ biggest loss of the season. 8* Green Bay |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Lions +7.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-51 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
10* Detroit (4:25 ET): The Lions obviously don’t win many games (they are 2-12-1 straight up), but they do cover regularly. I like them this week plus the points against what is likely to be an unmotivated Seattle side. The Lions’ 10-5 ATS record is third best in the league, only trailing the Packers and Cowboys. Five of their losses this season have come by four points or less, including last week’s (20-16) against Atlanta. Since the bye, they are 6-1 ATS with three of their four SU losses coming by four or less. They tied the Steelers and beat the Vikings and Cardinals during that time. For the season, the Lions are 9-2 ATS as an underdog of four or more points and they’ve covered four straight times off a loss. Seattle has only been outscored by a single point this year, but they are 5-10 SU and were officially eliminated from playoff contention with last week’s loss to the Bears. Again, I have to come back to the issue of motivation as the Seahawks are just the fourth team since 2018 to be at least a six-point favorites despite entering the game with at least 10 losses. The previous teams in this role all lost the game outright! Over the L11 games, Seattle is only 3-8 SU with two of the wins coming against Jacksonville and Houston. They are 2-5 SU at home this season and with nothing left to play for, them laying points seems a bit dicey. QB Jared Goff is doubtful to play here, but his impact is minimal. The return of RB D’Andre Swift is significant though as are the contributions of WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is just the second rookie to have 7+ receptions in four straight games. Russell Wilson has not been himself since returning from injury as he ranks just 22nd in QBR and has now failed to throw for 300 yards in 10 consecutive games, his longest stretch since his rookie year. The Seahawks’ offense is dead last in the league in third down conversion rate (33.7%), a massive problem. Take the points. 10* Detroit |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Texans v. 49ers -12 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): I know that the 49ers may not have Jimmy Garoppolo this week, but based on how the QB performed last week, that may not be a bad thing. Plus the Niners will be facing the Texans, one of the league’s worst teams. If Garoppolo can’t go (and it’s looking doubtful that he will), then it will be rookie Trey Lance getting the start. Lance is a first round draft pick, so he’s not “chopped liver.” San Francisco SHOULD have beaten Tennessee last week; they led 10-0 at halftime and ended up outgaining the Titans 389-278 (not to mention 6.7 to 4.8 yards per play). Houston has won back to back games, but is still just 4-11 SU on the year and has the third worst point differential (-153) in the NFL. Let us not forget that two of the Texans’ four wins came against the Jaguars. Last week’s 41-29 upset of the Chargers was certainly shocking as the offense gained over 400 yards for the first time since Week 1. The Texans also benefited from three Chargers’ turnovers, one of which was an interception returned for a touchdown. The bottom line is that I still consider them to be one of the very worst teams in this league. This will actually be the first time under HC Kyle Shanahan that San Francisco is favored by more than 10 points. The team has generally struggled to cover as home chalk during Shanahan’s tenure, but there is no doubt in my mind that they will win this game and likely move on to the playoffs. Houston won’t be able to run the ball in this matchup, not just because they are last in the league in rushing offense, but also due to the fact the SF defense is #2 in the league at stopping the run. Meanwhile, the Niners get their leading rusher (Elijah Mitchell) back from injury this week. Lay the points. 8* San Francisco |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Broncos v. Chargers OVER 45 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
10* Over Broncos/Chargers (4:05 ET): This is the second meeting of the season between these long-standing AFC West rivals. Denver won the first, 28-13, as a 2.5-point home dog. I was on the Broncos in that spot, but it was actually a much luckier win that the final score indicates as the Chargers had the edge in total yards. Turnovers hurt LA that day, much like they did last week in a stunning 41-29 loss to Houston. Coming off a bad loss like that, I wouldn’t want to lay points with the Chargers here. But I think it’s a given they will put up more points in this second matchup. Give me the Over. The Chargers’ last four games have all gone Over. They’ve averaged 33.8 points in that time, but unfortunately are also allowing 29.5 PPG. So that’s an average of 63.3 total points for the four games. We don’t need nearly that many to get the Over here. QB Herbert will ensure that the offense points up points here. The Chargers are third in the league, averaging 30.3 PPG at home. But the defense remains a liability. It gives up the fourth most rushing yards per game in the league. The Bolts have allowed 140+ rush yards eight times this season and 170+ four times. Denver games typically go much differently as they have the highest Under percentage in the league this season and their Under percentage under HC Vic Fangio is highest in the league during that time. Drew Lock will be the starting QB for the Broncos, so look for him to lean on the running game. Again, that’s a good thing, given what I outlined above. The Broncos averaged 4.5 yards per carry in the first meetings with the Chargers, a game that they finished with 28 points. Both teams should top 21 this time. 10* Over Broncos/Chargers |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +5 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): This is the Football Team’s second crack at the Eagles in three weeks as they lost 27-17 in Philadelphia (on a Tuesday) back in Week 15. That game had to be moved because of COVID and while that’s still an issue in the Washington locker room, they will have some key players back on Sunday that missed the first meeting. Pro Bowl guard Scherff, safety Curl and top tackler Holcomb are all set to return. Most importantly, the team won’t have to rely on third string QB Garrett Gilbert this time. (Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen reportedly will both take snaps). Despite being so short-handed in that first meeting with the Eagles, Washington was still tied at halftime on the road. Now, in between games vs. the Eagles, it was obviously a horrible effort last Sunday night from the Football Team as they were lambasted 56-14 by Dallas. That loss is fresh on everyone’s mind, so I don’t expect a lot of people rushing to the window to bet Washington this week. However, it’s important to note that Philadelphia has some serious injury issues at the running back position with Miles Sanders and perhaps Jordan Howard out. That’s a big deal for an offense that leads the league in rushing. I know that these are teams trending in different directions, but Washington should be motivated after taking such an embarrassing loss in front of a national TV audience last week. Technically, they are still alive in the playoff race. I see value on them getting this many points. What’s interesting about the Eagles is that they were underdogs in each of their first seven games and have been favored (or a pick ‘em) in the last eight. Before the last three weeks, they’d never been favored by more than four points. 8* Washington |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
10* Denver (4:25 ET): Point differential. That’s what this play essentially boils down to for me. Both teams are 7-7. But the Broncos have a +42 YTD point differential. The Raiders are -77. That’s quite the difference. When a team is .500, you’d expect their number of points scored and allowed to be pretty close to even. Yet that’s not the case with either of these teams. Denver should have a better record. Las Vegas should have a much worse record. I’m taking the better team. The Broncos also have revenge here for a 34-24 loss in Week 6. Total yardage was basically even in that game (424-421), but Denver was -4 in turnovers. If you’re a long-term follower of mine, then you know I’m a big believer in scoring differential being a strong indicator of future outcomes, not just in NFL but for all sports. Looking at the Raiders’ point differential, I won’t be the least bit surprised to see them lose all of their remaining games. They could barely beat a COVID-ravaged Cleveland team last Monday. In six of the last seven games, this Raiders’ offense has scored 16 points or less. I just don’t think Las Vegas is a very good football team! 10* Denver |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Jaguars v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
8* Over Jaguars/Jets (1:00 ET): I also like the Over in this game. Again, the Jaguars should score a season-high in points. There have been only two games since their bye, which was in Week 6, where the Jets didn’t allow at least 30 points. I know I talked about the Jets being short-handed when it comes to pass catchers, but considering that last week marked the seventh time this season that the Jaguars’ defense surrendered 30 or more points, the home team should have its own opportunities to score. With this being a matchup of two of the worst teams in football, expect little defense to be played and a surprising shootout to ensue. The Over is 4-0 in the previous meetings. 8* Over Jaguars/Jets |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Jaguars +2 v. Jets | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): The Jaguars were actually a popular choice last week. They’d just fired the embarrassing Urban Meyer and were facing Houston. Unfortunately, it was “same old Jags” as they lost for a second time this season to the Texans, 30-16 as six-point chalk. I was one of those that made the mistake of taking Jacksonville in that spot. Call me stubborn, but I think *this* is now the week this struggling side “gets off the mat.” They are facing a Jets team that’s missing a lot of key personnel, including its head coach. The Jets have been just as miserable as the Jaguars this season. New York has one more win than Jacksonville, but also has a slightly worse YTD point differential. Last week saw the Jets suffer their third straight defeat, 31-24 at Miami. They’ve now been outscored by 178 points. The Jags have been outscored by 174. Those are the two worst point differentials in the sport. But the key is the Jets being without HC Robert Saleh as well as their three top receivers, a tight end and two guards. If the Jags, after a coaching change, can’t be the short-handed Jets, then I don’t know what to say. The Jets’ defense is the worst in the league by a pretty wide margin. It allows 30.6 points per game. So look for Jacksonville’s offense to score a season-high in points today. They have not scored more than 23 in any game all year. If they fail to score 24 against the Jets, they would be the first team since the 2010 Panthers to not score 24 points in their first 15 games of the season. The time is now for Jacksonville! 8* Jacksonville |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Rams -3 v. Vikings | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (1:00 ET): The Rams are now in first place in the NFC West following last night’s loss by Arizona. In order to stay there, they must defeat Minnesota here. Given what the Rams have done each of the last two weeks, it would be foolish to bet against them. Two weeks ago, despite being severely short-handed because of COVID, they were able to go on the road and beat the Cardinals 30-23 in front of a national TV audience. Then came Tuesday’s 20-10 win over Seattle. Lay the points here. An outbreak that once included 29 players is now down to four for the Rams and none of those four that remain on the COVID list are starters. Look for the Rams offense to have a big passing day here against a Vikings defense that is allowing 252.1 yards per game through the air. Rams’ WR Cooper Kupp now has 10 straight games with at least 90 yards receiving. Sean McVay’s defense turned in a fine effort Tuesday night, holding Seattle to not just 10 points, but only 214 total yards. Minnesota is also on a short week here. They won 17-9 in Chicago on Monday, but it was not a good performance as the offense gained less than 200 yards and went 5 of 17 on third down. They were outgained by the Bears 370-193. The Vikings were quite lucky to recover three fumbles in the game. WR Adam Thielen will be back this week, but RB Dalvin Cook has been ruled out and that is potentially more significant. 8* LA Rams |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Bills +1 v. Patriots | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): First place in the AFC East is on the line Sunday in New England. The Patriots won the first meeting with the Bills, a famously windy affair where QB Mac Jones attempted only three passes. That win is the difference in the standings right now as New England enters this game at 9-5 while Buffalo is 8-6. But Mother Nature is not expected to play such a key role in today’s rematch and I think the better team (Buffalo) will rise to the top. The Bills are 15-8-1 ATS as an underdog and 18-9-1 ATS as an underdog with Josh Allen as the QB. They are 10-4-1 ATS as road underdogs. In the first meeting, Buffalo was the team more adversely affected by the windy conditions as it severely limited what they could do in the passing game. Red zone inefficiency also played a role in the 14-10 loss. Late in the game, the Bills missed a field goal and turned it over on downs. Expect Allen to be a lot more effective this time around, even without receiver Cole Beasley (who is on the COVID-19 list). The Bills have averaged 29 points in the two games since losing to New England. Remember that the Patriots lost last week, 27-17 at Indianapolis. They were actually underdogs. The loss snapped a seven-game SU/ATS win streak. With Tennessee’s win on Thursday, the Pats have fallen into third place in the AFC playoff picture. This is an important game for them too, obviously. But the offense hasn’t been putting up big numbers and the defense won’t be able to slow down the Bills for a second time. 8* Buffalo |
|||||||
12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:00 ET): The Cardinals badly need to win this game. Not just because they’ve lost two straight and four of their last seven. The losing streak has resulted in them falling into a tie with Los Angeles for first place in the NFC West. Earlier in the year, when they were 7-0, the Cards had to figure they were a shoo-in for the top seed in the NFC. But now they are looking at possibly falling into a Wild Card spot as last week saw the “unthinkable” happen - a 30-12 loss in Detroit, a game that Arizona was favored to win by 13 points. The Cardinals’ opponents this week, Indianapolis, are trending in a much different direction. The Colts have won five of six, including a very impressive showing last Saturday (at home) vs. New England. But despite winning 27-17, QB Carson Wentz was abysmal against the Patriots, completing only 5 of 12 passes for 57 yards. The Colts were outgained in that game, not just on a per play basis, but also 365-275 overall. Interestingly enough, they are 0-5 ATS coming off a game where they had less than 150 passing yards. On Thursday night, we all saw how one team (Tennessee) that was seemingly trending in the wrong direction beat a hot team (San Francisco). I believe the same will hold true here. The Cardinals are still higher than the Colts in my power ratings. Factoring that in plus the home field, they should be a larger favorite in this spot. Obviously, they’re going to be motivated coming off their worst loss of the season. Meanwhile, Indy is off arguably its best win of the season and thus could be in store for a letdown. This is the first time Arizona has been off B2B losses this year. Indy is 3-9 ATS the L12 times it has been off B2B wins. 10* Arizona |
|||||||
12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers UNDER 46.5 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
8* Under Browns/Packers (4:30 ET): The Browns have activated several key contributors from the COVID-19 list, among them QB Baker Mayfield and WR Jarvis Landry. They will also have HC Kevin Stefanski back on the sidelines after he too missed last Saturday’s 16-14 home loss to the Raiders. But pinning that lackluster offensive effort on all of the absences might be “wishful thinking” in Cleveland; this is a team that has been held to 17 points or fewer in seven of its last nine games. One of the two times it wasn’t was thanks to a defensive TD. The presumed return of Mayfield and company won’t necessarily lead to an abundance of scoring from the Browns here. Now Green Bay doesn’t have much difficulty scoring, thanks to Aaron Rodgers. While the Browns’ postseason hopes just took a massive hit with that loss to the Raiders, the Packers are already assured of a spot in the postseason and have wrapped up the NFC North. They come into Saturday at 11-3 SU having just held on to beat the Ravens last week, 31-30, when Baltimore failed to convert a two-point try. That was the fourth straight game to go Over for the Packers and they’ve averaged 35.7 PPG themselves during that stretch. I’ll get back to that in a minute. But first, I’ve got no worries about the Packers’ defense keeping the Cleveland offense in check here. I’ve already documented the Browns’ season-long offensive struggles. It’s more than half their games that they’ve failed to score more than 17 points. Well, Green Bay’s defense only allows 17.0 PPG at Lambeau. So there’s that. But Cleveland’s defense has allowed 16 points or less in eight games this season, including six of the last eight. 8* Under Browns/Packers |
|||||||
12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans OVER 44 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* Over 49ers/Titans (8:20 ET): San Francisco is surging and despite still only being third in their own division, they are very much in play for a Wild Card spot in the NFC. The Niners have won five of their last six games and last week’s 31-13 dismantling of the lowly Falcons marked the fourth time in that stretch where they scored 30 or more points. The other two games saw them score 26 and 23. Over the L8 weeks, Jimmy Garoppolo has posted the league’s 2nd best passer rating (trailing only Aaron Rodgers!) and the running game has averaged 142.4 YPG since Week 11. So expect the Niners to put up points tonight. Tennessee still leads the AFC South, but its once strong grip is loosening as they’ve lost three of their last four games. The division lead (over the Colts) is now down to just one game after blowing a 10-point lead last week and losing 19-13 to the Steelers. That marked the third time in the last four games that the Titans could only put 13 points on the board. But surprisingly the offense has still been able to run the ball without Derrick Henry as they’ve gone for 200+ yards on the ground in two of the last three games. QB Tannehill may be getting some help in the passing game as WR AJ Brown could return tonight. It’s been reported that Brown is “likely” to play. Though it’s been mostly Unders produced by these two teams in recent weeks, look for this one to go Over. The number is just too low. The Niners, who have probably the more “reliable” offense of the two teams right now, are 4-0 Over this season when the total is below 45. Brown’s return would be big for Tennessee, but even without him they should put up enough points here (for the game to go Over) as it’s been turnovers more than anything else that have limited their scoring the last few weeks. The Over is 6-2 in Tennessee’s last eight games as a home dog. 10* Over 49ers/Titans |
|||||||
12-21-21 | Seahawks v. Rams -6.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (7:00 ET): Coming off their biggest win of the season - last Monday’s 30-23 triumph at Arizona - the Rams were thrown into disarray with 25 players having to be put into COVID-19 protocol as of Thursday. That resulted in this game with the Seahawks being pushed back until Tuesday. While it may seem risky to still lay points with Los Angeles in this spot, they’ll still have QB Matthew Stafford on the field tonight and I simply feel they are still much better than the 5-8 Seahawks, whom they defeated 26-17 back in Week 5 on a Thursday night. I took the Rams then and will play them again in the rematch. Russell Wilson’s return to the Seattle lineup has resulted in B2B wins, 30-23 over San Francisco and 33-13 over Houston. But this is not a good Seahawks team. They rank dead last in the league in yards per game allowed, making it almost improbable that they somehow have allowed the fifth fewest points. The offense is 28th in the league in yards gained and Wilson may not have WR Tyler Lockett (COVID) available to throw to. While Seattle has put up 30+ points in B2B games, let’s not forget how pathetic the offense had looked (even with Wilson back) in the three prior games. The Rams’ offense is first in the league in yards per play (6.2), fourth in scoring (28.2 PPG) and has scored 28 or more in six of the last eight games. Other than TE Higbee, it looks like HC Sean McVay will have his full complement of players on that side of the ball. Remember the Rams were short-handed when they went into Arizona and won last week. I consider them one of the top teams in the league and they’ve covered 23 of the last 35 conference games. 8* LA Rams |
|||||||
12-20-21 | Raiders v. Browns -3 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (5:00 ET): This game was originally scheduled for Saturday, but a COVID-19 outbreak within the Browns organization pushed it back 48 hours. There are obviously some key players missing for Cleveland, not to mention HC Kevin Stefanski, but I still see them beating Las Vegas at home. Both these teams are desperate for a win to remain relevant in the AFC playoff hunt, but I’ve got little faith in a Raiders team that has been outscored by 77 points this year, the 4th worst differential in the conference. Lay the points. Las Vegas is coming off an ugly 48-9 loss to Kansas City, which was the second time in four weeks they got blown out by the Chiefs. Those two losses obviously had a major impact on the aforementioned point differential, but the Silver and Black have also dropped five of their last six overall. The only win came on Thanksgiving Day, in overtime, against the Cowboys. That win was the only time in the last six games that the offense was able to score more than 16 points. In more than half their games this season, the Raiders have been held to 16 or less. Third stringer Nick Mullens is likely to be the Browns’ starting QB in this one. From 2018-20, Mullens made 16 starts for the 49ers, so he’s not “new to this.” I don’t think that the Cleveland offense is going to need to put up many points here. The Browns’ defense has allowed 16 points or less in over half of its games this season and held the Ravens out of the end zone for three quarters last week. I already mentioned the Raiders’ offensive woes. Obviously, all the absences must be accounted for, but with the game being pushed back hopefully some of those Browns players that tested positive can return. I’m not a huge Baker Mayfield fan to begin with, so I don’t think he’ll be all that missed. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
12-19-21 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 45.5 | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
8* Under Saints/Bucs (8:20 ET): New Orleans has won six straight regular season meetings over Tampa Bay. But the Saints would gladly trade those six wins in exchange for the last time they lost to the Bucs, which was the Divisional Round of last year’s Playoffs. I had the Saints as a home dog when they upset TB back in Week 8, 36-27 as 3.5 point dogs. But this time it’s a lot harder to like them, not just because the Saints are playing in Tampa (where the Bucs are a perfect 6-0), but because of their own 1-5 slide. Now New Orleans did end a five-game losing streak last week, beating the lowly Jets 30-9. But don’t expect them to score that many points again. The Jets are the worst defensive team in the league. It’s a big jump up in class facing a Buccaneers’ defense, which allows only 18.5 PPG at home. A big difference between now and Week 8 is the Saints’ QB situation. They still had Jameis Winston as the starter on Halloween. Now it’s Taysom Hill. The Saints were able to run for 200+ yards last week, but won’t do that here against a Bucs’ defense that is third in the league against the run. Tom Brady and company have been a scoring machine at home this year, averaging 37.5 PPG. The team has scored 30 or more in four straight games overall, but needed OT to hit that mark last week vs. Buffalo. The Bucs’ defense looked great for three quarters in shutting Josh Allen in the Bills down. I’ll look past what happened in the fourth quarter as they are facing a much weaker offense this week. But expect the Bucs to struggle to score in this one. The Saints’ defense is very good (only 21.9 PPG allowed). None of New Orleans’ last three games have seen more than 44 total pts scored. 8* Under Saints/Bucs |
|||||||
12-19-21 | Packers v. Ravens +7 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): It is looking like a near certainty that Tyler Huntley will be the starting QB here for the Ravens. Lamar Jackson suffered a sprained ankle in last week’s 24-22 loss to the Browns and hasn’t practiced all week. While the loss of Jackson may make Baltimore a “less attractive option” in the minds of many bettors, I am seeing value here on the Ravens as a home dog. Huntley very nearly led his team back from a 24-6 halftime deficit last week. He also guided a 16-13 win at Chicago earlier in the season. Take the points! Now Green Bay is the top ATS team in the league. They’ve covered 11 of 13 games this year, including a come from behind effort last week against Chicago. Things were not looking good for Packers’ bettors early on last Sunday night as the team trailed at halftime. But they stormed back to win 45-30 and improbably cover the double digit spread. That was at Lambeau though. All three Packers’ losses this season have come on the road - where their scoring average dips to 20.6 PPG. Now GB’s road numbers are a little skewed due to a Week 1 loss to the Saints (an outlier performance) and the game they played at Kansas City without Aaron Rodgers. That being said, this is too many points for them to be laying here. This line is a classic overreaction to Jackson’s absence. Jackson is a great player, but the Ravens also have a great defense and special teams. John Harbaugh is 9-3 ATS his L12 games as a home underdog with eight outright wins. Baltimore is also 3-0 ATS as ‘dogs this season. Almost all of their games end up close with five of the last six decided by six points or less. Only two teams in history have ever started a NFL season 12-2 ATS. 10* Baltimore |
|||||||
12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars -4.5 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
9* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Urban Meyer’s firing had an interesting effect on this number as the Jaguars are now bigger favorites to beat the Texans without their disgraced former head coach. My view is that the Jags are going to come out highly motivated to win this game. Certainly they can’t be any worse than they were under Meyer, whose NFL coaching career will end with a 2-11 WL record. For this first game without Meyer, the Jags probably couldn’t have asked for a more ideal opponent. I’m laying the points! There are two teams that I have rated lower than Jacksonville in my own personal power ratings. One of them is the opponent here (the other is the Jets). Houston has a worse point differential than Jacksonville and the same 2-11 SU record. David Culley just feels like a lame-duck coach this season for the Texans, who are down to Davis Mills at QB. The team is 0-7 SU with Mills as the starter after losing 33-13 last week at home to Seattle. The Texans actually struck first in that game and then were thoroughly dominated after that. This is a revenge spot for Jacksonville, who lost 37-21 in Houston back in Week 1. It was their seventh straight loss to the Texans, which is quite embarrassing. It’s interesting to note that the Jaguars were favored in the Week 1 matchup. While that proved to be a “bad line,” it looks like we’re getting a bargain on them at home here. Houston has won just once since Week 1. You’ve got to believe the Jaguars’ players will want to win for interim HC Darrell Bevell to prove a point that they are better without Meyer. From the revenge angle to the new coach, lots of motivation here for the home side. 9* Jacksonville |
|||||||
12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts -2 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis (8:20 ET): Two of the hottest teams in football meet Saturday night and both are coming off byes. I don’t think there’s any denying that the Colts are better than their 7-6 SU overall record. The team ranks seventh in the league in point differential, having outscored the opposition by 88 points. Now I am well aware that New England is not only #1 in the league in that department (+150 point differential), but is also on a 7-0 SU/ATS win streak. But the Colts have been a favorite of “sharp bettors” all season and this is a case where it’s right to fade what is likely to be a very “public dog” (that being the Patriots). Remember that Indianapolis started the year at 0-3 SU. Since then, they’ve gone 7-3 with two of the losses coming in overtime (both after blowing big leads) and the other coming by only seven points to the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. Still fresh in everyone’s mind is New England’s win at Buffalo two weeks ago where QB Mac Jones only attempted three passes due to insanely windy conditions. But don’t forget that the Colts went to Buffalo a few weeks ago and absolutely trounced the Bills, 41-15 (as a seven-point underdog). As good as the Patriots have looked over the last two months, you’ve got to figure they are “due” to drop at least one game down the stretch. Looking at the remaining four games, this and next week’s home date with Buffalo are easily the two toughest matchups Bill Belichick’s team has left. New England is 6-0 SU on the road this year, but three of those wins came by four points or less. This game means A LOT more to the Colts, who trail the Titans by two games in the AFC South and really cannot afford another loss. The last time we saw them, they beat the Texans 31-0 and allowed only 141 total yards. The Texans are admittedly a horrible team, but a Colts offense (led by RB Taylor) that has struck for 30 or more points in seven of the last eight games will test this Patriots’ defense. 10* Indianapolis |
|||||||
12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (8:20 ET): A win tonight would give the Chargers a season sweep of the Chiefs and thus a “leg up” in the race for the division title. A Chargers win would also mean both teams are 9-5 SU. So you can see how important this one is. Either LA falls two games back with a split of the season series, or they are even with a season sweep. I know that the Chiefs - 6-0 SU L6 games and 4-0 ATS L4 - have been playing well of late. But so have the Chargers, who have scored 37 or more points in three of the last four games. Those offensive numbers will certainly be tested tonight by a Chiefs defense that has allowed exactly nine points in three consecutive games. But KC has not exactly been facing the top offensive teams during this stretch. Twice they’ve beaten the Raiders and other wins came against the Broncos, Giants and Rodgers-less Packers. Holding Dallas to just nine points WAS impressive. But I can’t see a similar defensive effort taking place against these Chargers, which has Justin Herbert and two receivers that will go over 1,000 yards this season. The Chiefs are surprisingly still being outgained this season on a per play basis. While it was back in Week 3 and Kansas City turned it over four times, the Chargers scored 30 in the first meeting and that was when they weren’t playing as well. The Chargers’ last three wins have been by an average of 13 PPG, but even that’s misleading as they led by as many as 17, 24 and 30 in those respective games. LA is 4-1 ATS its L5 games as a dog. 10* LA Chargers |
|||||||
12-12-21 | Bears +12 v. Packers | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
9* Chicago (8:20 ET): Going total contrarian on this one as Green Bay is the first double digit favorite in a Sunday Night game this season. It’s somewhat rare to see a DD fave in these primetime matchups, at least on SNF where it’s happened only eight times the previous decade. Those eight favorites went just 2-6 ATS. As bad as the Bears have looked this season, I can’t help but think this is an inflated number. At least Justin Fields is back at QB. Yes, I’m taking the points here. There’s always a sense of “pride” in these division games and I don’t see Chicago just “rolling over” in this one. Aaron Rodgers was not afraid to make his feelings known in the last meeting between these teams. “I own you” is what Rodgers told the Soldier Field faithful following a 24-14 win back in Week 6. First off, note that win was “only” by 10 points (less than the spread here). Secondly, might Rodgers’ comments come back to bite him? You’ve got to think the Bears will at least be motivated after being disrespected like that. Total yardage and first downs were actually pretty close in Chicago back October 17th. The Bears have just one win since losing to the Packers two months ago, but last week they actually outgained Arizona only to be undone by four turnovers. They also finished with a 26-14 edge in first downs! Fields definitely has a higher ceiling than “turnover machine” Andy Dalton. The Packers may be 10-2 ATS overall (including 5-0 at Lambeau), but they are due to drop a game at the betting window. 9* Chicago |
|||||||
12-12-21 | Giants +10 v. Chargers | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -122 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (4:05 ET): A change in playcallers has failed to provide any kind of spark for the struggling Giants’ offense - at least so far. Freddie Kitchens replaced Jason Garrett as the new OC two weeks ago, but the G-Men have scored a grand total of 22 points (including just one TD) since the change. They were held to season lows in points, total yards and time of possession last week against Miami. It doesn’t help that Daniel Jones is out because of a neck injury. But I think New York may surprise you this week, even with backup Mike Glennon at QB. This team has typically been reliable in the role of underdog. Take the points. The Chargers are off an impressive 41-22 win at Cincinnati, but they strike me as the kind of team that should never be laying this many points. Note that they nearly blew all of a 24-0 lead last week before pulling away late. Prior to that, the team had covered just one of five games with the two SU wins coming by three and four points. QB Justin Herbert will be without his top receiver this week as Keenan Allen has landed on the COVID-19 list. Coming off the surprisingly big win over the Bengals and with a huge division showdown vs. the Chiefs on deck, this is a tricky spot for Los Angeles. The Giants, as alluded to above, have done well in the past as a road underdog. They are 9-4 ATS in that role under HC Joe Judge and 19-7 ATS L26 going back further than that. The Chargers aren’t just 1-4 ATS L5 as favorites; they’ve never been more than a 6.5-point favorite in any game this season. They’ve got the worst homefield advantage in the league and are 5-13-1 ATS L19 as home chalk. LA’s YTD point differential is still negative while the Giants are outscored by only 5.2 PPG. I think the Giants’ offense can find success here as the Chargers’ D still ranks 31st against the run and 31st on third downs. 8* NY Giants |
|||||||
12-12-21 | Falcons v. Panthers -2.5 | Top | 29-21 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
10* Carolina (1:00 ET): The Panthers’ 3-0 SU/ATS start is now a distant memory as they are 5-7 SU/ATS coming out of the bye. This is a team that’s finished with just five wins each of the last two seasons. If they want to beat that number in 2021, this might be their last chance to do so. That’s because the final four weeks of the season will see Carolina face Buffalo, Tampa Bay twice and New Orleans. Three of those games are on the road. Given that upcoming schedule and the fact that (now former) OC Joe Brady was dismissed during the bye week, I’m expecting an “inspired effort” here from the Panthers. Atlanta may have the same 5-7 SU record as Carolina, but I’d argue the Falcons are a significantly worse football team. Point differential certainly paints that picture as Atlanta has been outscored this season by 116 points. Carolina is only -17 in point differential. While the Panthers are fresh off a bye, the Falcons are playing for an eighth straight week. Last week marked the Dirty Birds’ fifth double digit loss of the season. This team is actually ranked dead last in the league in DVOA and struggles in all three phases of the game. The bottom line is that my power ratings say Carolina should be laying closer to SIX points on Sunday. I took the Panthers in the first meeting of the season, which they won 19-13 in Atlanta as 2.5-point dogs. They ended up outgaining the Falcons 332-213 thanks to a substantial edge in the ground game. Carolina ran for 200+ yards that day. While they no longer have RB Christian McCaffery (out for year) at their disposal, that’s okay. McCaffery didn’t play in that first matchup either. It was Chubba Hubbard leading the way. From Weeks 4-8, Hubbard was second in the NFL in rush attempts and ninth in yards. The Panthers also now have Cam Newton playing QB. The Falcons’ offense doesn’t run the ball well and the Panthers are fifth in the league in pass defense. Specifically, they’re very good at defending tight ends, so I’d expect Kyle Pitts (two catches, 13 yards in 1st meeting) to not have a big day. Lay the short number. 10* Carolina |
|||||||
12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans +9 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:00 ET): I understand that few, if any, want to touch the Texans right now, let alone when they have Davis Mills quarterbacking. But are we really convinced that Seattle should be laying this many points on the road, against anyone? I guess this will be the test. The Seahawks are off a 30-23 win over San Francisco last week as 2.5-point dogs. But that was at home and they were aided by both a 73-yard TD on a fake punt and a safety. The Seahawks are 2-0 vs. the 49ers this year, but 2-8 SU against the rest of their schedule. Last week was just their second win since Week 4. I’m taking the points. Just how odd is it to see a 4-8 SU team favored by seven or more on the road? Well, per ESPN Stats & Info, Seattle is the first team since 1966 with a win percentage of .333 or worse to be laying seven or more on the road in the month of December! Also, keep in mind the fact that the Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS their last five tries as a favorite and have also lost outright four times. They are 1-7 ATS in their L8 games as a road favorite going back to last year. I’m not going to look you in the eye and tell you that Mills is good. But he’s no worse than Tyrod Taylor has been at QB for Houston. Before getting steamrolled 31-0 by a good Colts team last week, the Texans previous three games had all been decided by single digits. They beat the Titans 22-13 on the road. The two losses were by seven and eight points. Just “hold your nose” and take the points here as I don’t think a defense that gives up nearly 400 YPG and just lost Jamal Adams for the season should be laying this many points. 8* Houston |
|||||||
12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:20 ET): Despite what the records may say, I believe the Vikings are a better football team than the Steelers. Minnesota may be 5-7 SU, but (unlike the Steelers) they can actually claim a POSITIVE YTD point differential, albeit a small one (at +3). The Vikes’ seven losses have all been by eight points or fewer. Four have been decided on the final play of the game, including a pair of OT losses. Last week may have been the new nadir as the Vikes fell 29-27 to the previously winless Lions. That was a game where Mike Zimmer’s team was favored by a TD on the road, had a 426-372 edge in total yards and took the lead with just under two minutes to go. The defense simply could not get the last stop that Zimmer needed. So, at this point, I’m pretty much willing to “dig my heels in” and let it be known that I don’t think Pittsburgh is a very good team. Sure, they beat the Ravens last week to move to 6-5-1 on the year. But the Steelers have been outscored this season by 42 points. They are the only team in the NFL to have a winning record and negative point differential. While a bulk of that negative point differential stems from a 41-10 loss to the Bengals two weeks ago, it’s also true that the Steelers do not have a single victory this season by more than eight points. Their six victories have been by a total of 26 points. Bottom line: I do NOT believe this team is going to make the playoffs. I want to play against them here. The defense may have let them down last week, but the Vikings are a lot stingier here at home. A lot stingier, in fact. On the road, Minnesota allows 29.2 PPG. That’s second most in the NFL. But at home, they allow only 19.8 PPG, which is in the top 10. It’s that defensive improvement that allows me to look past the potential absences of WR Adam Thielein and RB Dalvin Cook on Thursday. The Steelers’ offense, which averages only 20.3 PPG and has an aging Ben Roethlisberger at QB, isn’t very good. And the last two times the Steelers have gone on the road, their defense has surrendered 41 points in both games! The Vikings moved the ball fine w/o Thielen and Cook last week. My power ratings do say that the Vikings are the better team here. So they probably should be laying more than a field goal. But with all but one of their games having been decided by eight points or less, I feel more comfortable simply playing them on the money line. They WILL win this game. 8* Minnesota (MONEY LINE) |
|||||||
12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (8:20 ET): After a weak Sunday slate, we’ve certainly got something to “sink our teeth into” here as New England faces Buffalo on Monday Night Football. These are the two top teams in my own personal power rankings. Winners of six straight (SU and ATS), the Patriots are the hottest team in the league right now. Last time we saw them, they blew out the Titans 36-13. That was their third straight win by 23+ points. But it would be unwise to disregard what the Bills have done this season. They were the Super Bowl favorite not even a month ago. I’m going to lay the short number in this one. What’s hurt the perception of Buffalo over the last month is two confounding losses. One was at Jacksonville, by a score of 9-6, and I still have no explanation for what happened there. A 41-15 loss to the Colts two weeks ago was easier to explain as the Bills were -4 in turnovers in that game. Despite losing by 26, they actually had a slight edge in yards per play. It was a strong bounce back game Thanksgiving Night against New Orleans as the Bills went on the road and won 31-6 as 6.5-point road favorites. With 10 days between games, I expect the Bills to be sharp on their home field tonight. You’ve got to respect New England’s 5-0 SU road record. However, they’ve gone off as the favorite in four of those five games. So you can’t be too surprised by their success. The only time they haven’t been favored on the road was against the Chargers, who have the worst home field advantage in the league. The other four road wins were against the Jets, Texans, Panthers and Falcons. Buffalo’s defense, which is #1 in total yards allowed, should make Mac Jones “look like a rookie” tonight in what amounts to a statement game for the reigning AFC East Champs. New England is “due” to lose here. 10* Buffalo |
|||||||
12-05-21 | Broncos +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 9-22 | Loss | -116 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
9* Denver (8:20 ET): I think that this spread is way too high given these two AFC West teams have nearly identical YTD point differentials. Denver has outscored their opponents by 32 points this season while Kansas City is +31. I took the Broncos last week and as a slight home dog they delivered an impressive outright win, 28-13 over the Chargers. That has them at 6-5, tied with the Chargers and Raiders for second place in the division, one game behind the first place Chiefs. I’m taking the points here. Chiefs HC Andy Reid has been profitable in his career when off a bye, but he’s just 1-3 ATS the L4 times in that situation. Going back to last year, Kansas City has been a disaster at the betting window, going just 6-19 ATS the L25 games. Prior to the bye, the Chiefs did beat the Raiders 41-14 and the Cowboys 19-9. But those were two of their biggest wins all season. Before that, they had just two double digit wins and both came on the road against NFC East teams. At home, the Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS this season and averaging only 21.5 PPG. Believe it or not, this will be just the fourth time this year that Denver is an underdog. I already mentioned cashing in on them last week at home vs. the Chargers. But I also had them +10 in Dallas back on November 7th when they won outright 30-16. This is a huge game for the Broncos as they’ve lost 11 straight times to the Chiefs, many of them blowouts. They aren’t looking to get blown out on national TV. A defense that allows the league’s fewest number of trips into the red zone should - at the very least - help the Broncos stay within the number. 9* Denver |
|||||||
12-05-21 | Jaguars v. Rams OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-37 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
8* Over Jaguars/Rams (4:05 ET): Both the Jaguars and Rams come into this Week 13 matchup on three-game SU losing streaks. However, there are longer streaks at play as well. The Rams have failed to cover five straight games, a streak that dates back to mid-October. The Jaguars have gone Under in six straight games. I know we’re talking about one of the worst offenses in the NFL here (Jacksonville) going cross-county to face a Rams team that’s had some poor offensive outings of late. But I’ve got a “hunch” that this one is set to go Over. The Rams should score a lot of points in this game. The Rams scored 28 last week against the Packers. The problem is they also gave up 36. The last three games, again all losses, have seen the Rams’ defense allow an average of 31.7 PPG. While they aren’t likely to give up that many here to the Jaguars, I think they’ll still give up enough to allow this game to go Over the total. Though they only scored 16 points against the Titans and 10 against the 49ers, there’s really nothing “wrong” with the Rams offense. As I mentioned above, they put up 28 points and 5.8 yards per play last week. Los Angeles comes into this game averaging 27.2 PPG and will be facing a Jacksonville defense that gives up 27.0 PPG on the road. These teams play only once every four years, but for what it’s worth, the Over is 4-0 the L4 meetings. 8* Over Jaguars/Rams |
|||||||
12-05-21 | Cardinals v. Bears +7.5 | Top | 33-22 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): While I’m not going so far as to predict a Bears outright victory here, I do believe they can keep the game close at home. They’re coming off a “mini-bye” as Monsters of the Midway last played on Thanksgiving when they defeated Detroit 16-14 as three-point favorites. They may not have covered the spread, but HC Matt Nagy (on the hot seat) will gladly take the SU win as it snapped a five-game losing skid. The Bears’ last three games have been decided by a total of seven points. Arizona is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS on the road. Winning every road game is tough enough. Covering them all is very rare. The 9-2 Cardinals are coming off their bye, but QB Kyler Murray remains a “gametime decision” as the team looks to be cautious given Murray’s injury history. They probably think they don’t need him to beat the Bears, especially after backup Colt McCoy led a 23-13 “upset” in Seattle two weeks ago. The Cards are actually 2-1 with McCoy as the starter. My view is that if Murray does play, we’re going to get a better number. So you may want to wait closer to kickoff to bet this one. Andy Dalton will start for the Bears. Not inspiring, but he threw for 317 yards last week. It was the first 300+ yard day by a Bears QB since Nick Foles last season. Also, RB David Montgomery is back. Look for edge-rusher Robert Quinn to pressure whomever Arizona’s QB ends up being. I just can’t see the Cardinals winning a seventh straight road game by double digits. Only two other teams (in NFL HISTORY) have done it six times. In addition to Murray, WR DeAndre Hopkins is also a game-time decision. Hold your nose and take the points in this one. 8* Chicago |
|||||||
12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals -3 | Top | 41-22 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): With the Bengals favored by only three points at home, oddsmakers are essentially saying they see these teams as “even” on a neutral field. I have a different view. After B2B impressive wins (over the Raiders and Steelers), Cincinnati has a +83 YTD point differential. That’s third best in the AFC, trailing only the Patriots and Bills. Don’t forget the Bengals also blew out the Ravens, 41-17 back in Week 7. That’s a Ravens team that blew out the Chargers 34-6 the week prior. Los Angeles, despite being 6-5 SU, comes into this game with a -20 YTD point differential. I chose to fade the Chargers last week and that ended up being a wise decision. They went to Denver as 2.5-point favorites and lost outright 28-13. Despite outgaining the Broncos, LA never led and trailed most of the way by double digits. More bad news is the fact this just isn’t the Chargers “time of year.” In Weeks 10 through 13, they are 2-8 SU and 0-10 ATS. It gets worse as they are also 1-7 SU/ATS coming off a division loss. The fact that this team has been outscored tells me they aren’t as good as their record. The defense really struggles to stop the run (164 YPG allowed on the road) and has given up an average of 31.3 PPG the L7 weeks. You can look for the Bengals’ offense, which has scored 31+ points in five of its last six games, to take advantage of that suspect Chargers’ defense. Also note that this is an early start for the road team (10 AM West Coast time), which is a disadvantage. The last time the Chargers played a 1 PM ET game was … the blowout loss to Baltimore. They are averaging only 19.2 PPG on the road. That just won’t cut it against a Bengals team that is one of the most improved in the league this year. The Cincinnati defense has allowed just 23 points in the L2 games. 10* Cincinnati |
|||||||
11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* Over Seattle/Washington (8:15 ET): Since Russell Wilson returned to the lineup, the Seahawks have gone 0-2 SU and scored just 13 points. That point total is a little misleading though as Wilson threw TWO interceptions in the end zone against Green Bay. With the season very much on the brink heading into tonight, look for Wilson and the Seattle offense to “pick up the pace” against a Washington defense that has mostly struggled in 2021. Through the first four games of the season, the Football Team had the worst third down defensive efficiency in league HISTORY! They are still giving up 26.7 PPG. Washington’s offense has gotten better though, specifically QB Taylor Heinicke, who will be seeking to be the first QB to throw 3+ TD passes in B2B games for the franchise since Kirk Cousins did it back in 2016. The Football Team is coming off back to back upset wins, the first a real shocker as they were 10-point dogs and beat the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers 29-19. Last week, they went to Carolina and won 27-21. Seattle’s defense was very poor at the start of the season. While it’s gotten somewhat better over the last month or so, it is still giving up over 400 YPG for the year. So I’m looking for this game to go Over the total. Yes, Seattle games are 8-1-1 to the Under (8-2 for some) this season, but I really do think this is the game where we start to see the “old Wilson.” As for Heinicke, he’s thrown for more than 245 yards in six of his nine games. The Over the L4 times that Washington has been off a SU win. 10* Over Seattle/Washington |
|||||||
11-28-21 | Browns +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:20 ET): The Browns were 0-7 ATS in division games under HC Kevin Stefanski, but then they blew out Cincinnati, 41-16 (as 1-pt road dogs) three weeks ago. That was another game where the sharp money was seemingly on them, despite being off less than a stellar performance. Before beating the Bengals, the Browns had lost 15-10 to the Steelers. Here they are off a win, albeit an unimpressive one, 13-10 (as 13.5 point chalk) over the winless Lions. I think Cleveland will surprise you in this spot. Baltimore has been a pretty lucky team this season. They are 7-3 SU and lead the AFC North, but that’s thanks in no small part to a 5-1 SU record in one-score games. There have been four games decided by three points or less and the Ravens have won all them. The latest was last week, 16-13 over Chicago, where the Ravens were outgained 353-299. I know there was no Lamar Jackson in that game, but the Ravens very nearly lost. It was the FOURTH time this year they got the go-ahead score in the final minute. Twice this year they’ve come back from a double digit deficit to win in overtime. Cleveland was leading 13-0 last week at the half. The offense did nothing in the second half as QB Baker Mayfield isn’t 100% and continues to struggle. But the only real mistake made by the Browns’ defense last week was giving up one long TD run. The Lions’ FG came after a 9-yard drive. Cleveland is healthy again at RB, which is the key to their offensive success. The Browns’ defense has allowed 16 points or less in six different games this season, including four of the last five. Baltimore is only 2-6 ATS as a favorite thus far. Take the points. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (4:25 ET): This line has certainly shifted during the week, but I think the line move is warranted. The game might be in Lambeau Field (where it will be cold), but the Rams have had two weeks to prepare for this game after heading into the bye on a two-game losing streak. Due to COVID and a toe injury, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has not been able to practice regularly the last three weeks. I believe the Rams are the better team here and think they’ll show it on Sunday. I faded Green Bay last week. Despite them playing nearly flawlessly, I came away with a winning ticket as the Vikings pulled a 34-31 upset, thanks to a GW field goal as time expired. That snapped what had been a record-setting 9-game ATS win streak for the Packers. My view is they are still due to “give some back.” I say this based on the fact they only have a +33 point differential, despite their 8-3 SU record. I just don’t think the Pack are as good as their record would seem to indicate. This is also a big-time revenge game for the Rams, who are 0-7 ATS the L7 meetings with the Packers, including a playoff loss last January. Green Bay has won six of those previous seven meetings outright. But the Rams are not only rested this time, but have also upgraded their roster with the additions of Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. Green Bay is dealing with some injuries along the offensive line and could struggle to protect Rodgers in this matchup. Having not had their bye yet (comes next week), the Packers could be somewhat gassed, especially compared to a rested opponent. 10* LA Rams |
|||||||
11-28-21 | Chargers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
9* Denver (4:05 ET): It seems as if every Chargers’ game ends up close these days. Five of the last six have been decided by seven points or less and they’ve won three of those. The Chargers’ history in closely-contested affairs is not good, so it’s a bit of a surprise to see them 5-3 in one-score games this year. Despite being 6-4 SU overall, the Chargers have a -5 point differential. I know that last week’s 41-37 win over Pittsburgh should NOT have ended up so close, but still I think it’s dicey to trust Brandon Staley’s team laying points on the division road. Despite being a game behind LA in the AFC West standings, Denver actually has a better YTD point differential (+17). Considering that and that they both at home and off a bye, the Broncos should be favored here. After not being favored in a single game last season (only team in the league that could say that), Denver was actually favored in its first six games of 2021. They’ve only been an underdog in two games this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 0-3 ATS their last three games as a favorite. The Broncos are also 9-2 ATS off a bye, including 2-0 under HC Vic Fangio. The home team already had a decided edge defensively. They allow only 18.3 PPG. The Chargers allow 26.5 PPG and rank 32nd (i.e. last) against the run. Now Bradley Chubb has been activated and is expected to play Sunday. That should bolster Denver’s pass rush and keep the pressure on Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert. Also, as we saw again last week vs. Pittsburgh - when they had a punt blocked - LA’s special teams continue to be a major liability. Take the points. 9* Denver |
|||||||
11-28-21 | Titans +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-36 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans are off a shocking loss where they outgained the Texans 420-190. But they were also -5 in turnover differential and that’s the primary reason they lost 22-13 as 10-point favorites. That and they are a banged up football team right now. But Tennessee still has the best WL record in the AFC right now (8-3 SU) and I think they can stay within the number this week, despite playing the new hottest team in the NFL. The Titans are a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season, also winning outright all five times! Not saying they’ll win outright again here, but take the points. The Patriots seem to be the new “toast of the town” right now as they’ve won five in a row, four of those victories coming by 18 or more points. Bill Belichick’s team entered Thanksgiving with the top point differential in the league at +123. (Have since been passed in the department by Buffalo). The league’s top scoring defense (16.1 PPG allowed) has been key, but so has being +9 in turnover differential during the win streak. The Pats have also covered five in a row, so between that and the Titans’ record as a dog, something will have to give Sunday. My thinking is the Pats are EXTREMELY popular right now and it’s probably a good time to fade. This line has really risen during the week. New England is off the “mini-bye,” after playing last Thursday. They shut the Falcons out 25-0 last time we saw them. But if you think the extended rest is a good thing for the Patriots, then think again as they are 0-6 ATS the L6 times they’ve been off extra rest. Tennessee isn’t just perfect as a dog, they are also 4-1 ATS on the road. HC Mike Vrabel is 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Belichick, whom he previously served under. I think the Titans’ loss last week was HIGHLY misleading (given the total yardage discrepancy) while at the same time wanting to “sell high” on the Pats. 8* Tennessee |
|||||||
11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints +6.5 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 4 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (8:20 ET): For the first time since 2016, the Saints have lost three in a row. Now if you are a regular client of mine, that shouldn’t surprise you. I said to fade New Orleans last week and that turned out to be a good bet as they lost 40-29 to the Eagles. Really, things weren’t even as close as that final score makes it seem. The Saints fell behind 33-7 after three quarters and were clearly outclassed from the get-go. But I should mention how turnovers played a key role in that outcome. The Saints had three of them, one of which was an INT that was returned for a TD. They actually outgained the Eagles, slightly, on a per play basis for the game. The key for Philly was having three scoring drives (besides the pick-six) begin in Saints’ territory. What I’m saying is - don’t write off New Orleans just yet. Especially not here at home. Last week marked the first time in five games this season that they did NOT cover as an underdog. They’d won three of the previous four outright. Of course, last week’s game was on the road. I remind you of that because the Saints are 8-2 ATS their L10 games as a home underdog. They are also the only team in the league to alternate ATS wins and losses all season. If that trend holds here, that means they’ll cover the spread. Going back to last season, New Orleans is 6-0 ATS off its previous six ATS losses. Buffalo is just 1-3-1 ATS its last five games, including an embarrassing outright loss to Jacksonville a few weeks ago. As embarrassing as that defeat to the Jags was, last week’s 41-15 thrashing at the hands of the Colts may have been their nadir. While the Bills still are near the top of my power ratings, I think they’re laying too many points in this Thanksgiving night matchup. The spread should be under a FG, so I think there’s value here on the home dog, who has seen three of its five losses come by six points or fewer. 8* New Orleans |
|||||||
11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 47 h 0 m | Show |
10* Under Bills/Saints (8:20 ET): Both the Bills and Saints come into Thanksgiving off blowout losses. In fact, the Saints have lost three straight games (first time since 2016). Two of those losses were close, but last week’s wasn’t as they fell 40-29 to the Eagles. But that was a bit of a misleading final as Philly had three scoring drives start in Saints’ territory + a pick six. Also, New Orleans had two TD drives start inside the Eagles’ 40-yard line. So the fourth straight Saints game to Over the total was pretty misleading all-around. The Bills’ 41-15 loss to the Colts was also a little misleading. Like the Saints, the Bills also had a slight edge in yards per play on Sunday. That sounds crazy considering the scores, but it is true. Buffalo was also done in by turnovers. They had four (and didn’t force any), which led to three Indianapolis touchdown drives, two of which started deep in Buffalo territory. As for the Bills offense, there were two missed field goals, but it was also the second time in three weeks that they scored 15 points or less. That’s not good. These two defenses surrendering 40+ points is quite uncharacteristic. In fact, the number of points allowed last week were season-worsts for both teams. The Bills defense still has given up the fewest number of total yards in the league and also ranks second in scoring (17.6 PPG allowed). Most of New Orleans’ points last week came in the fourth quarter during “garbage time” and it’s looking unlikely that they will have RB Alvin Kamara for this game. Trevor Siemian has proven to be a below-average QB. As for the Saints’ defense, the number of rush yards it allowed last week was highly uncharacteristic (though it was the second year in a row that the Eagles shredded them on the ground). Entering that game, New Orleans was #1 in the league at stopping the run. The Under has hit each of the last six years in the primetime Thanksgiving window. Make it seven in a row. 10* Under Bills/Saints |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Giants v. Bucs UNDER 50 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10* Under Giants/Buccaneers (8:15 ET): Tampa Bay’s defense has given up 65 points the last two weeks as the team has lost B2B games for the first time since the midpoint of last season. The good news for Bucs fans is that after suffering those B2B losses last season, the team didn’t lose another game and went on to win the Super Bowl. I wouldn’t be all that confident in a similar run taking place here in 2021, but I do think at the very least the defense gets back on track Monday night vs. the Giants. The Giants, who are coming out of their bye week, are one of nine teams in the league that averages fewer than 20.0 PPG. It was a 23-16 win over the Raiders two weeks ago, but the touchdown that decided that game came from the defense (pick-six). Only twice in its last seven games has the Giants offense accounted for more than 20 points. Part of that has to do with RB Saquon Barkley being out, but let’s not look past the fact that Daniel Jones (0-7 SU in primetime games) is a below average NFL QB. One encouraging sign for the Giants is that their defense has allowed a total of just 39 points the last three games. A struggling Washington defense held Tom Brady & the Bucs offense to just 19 points last week, so I don’t see why the Giants can’t turn in yet another solid defensive effort tonight. On the flip side, Tampa Bay’s defense is giving up only 18.5 PPG at home. Both losses they recently suffered were on the road. Including last week, the Bucs are 4-0 Under off their previous four losses. 10* Under Giants/Buccaneers |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Cardinals v. Seahawks +2 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 30 m | Show |
9* Seattle (4:25 ET): The return of Russell Wilson last week produced a shocking result as the Seahawks were shut out for the 1st time since 2011, which predates Wilson’s tenure here in the Pacific Northwest. The 17-0 loss to the Packers leaves Seattle at 3-6 SU and in last place in the NFC West. This week feels like a “watershed” game for the team as another loss would essentially sink their season. But a win would certainly keep them viable in the playoff hunt. Given that the Seahawks are 15-7 ATS as a home dog under HC Pete Carroll, including 6-3 with Wilson as the starter, I’m taking the points here. Now I know that Arizona is 5-0 SU/ATS on the road this season and covered the spread in five of their last six visits to Seattle. But this week marks the first time since 2011 (again the year before Wilson arrived) that the Cardinals are favored here. The big story here is whether or not QB Kyler Murray (game-time decision) will play. Murray has missed the L2 games and backup Colt McCoy (will start if Murray can’t go) got injured last week in a 34-10 loss to Carolina. We know that WR DeAndre Hopkins is out Sunday. So the bottom line is that Arizona’s offense will NOT be at full strength, no matter what. Whether or not Murray ends up playing here is irrelevant to the selection. Coming back from a sprained ankle will limit his mobility, if he does play. If Murray is out, then I certainly don’t fear a banged up McCoy, who threw for only 107 yards last week. Given that Arizona’s bye is next week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hold Murray out. While Seattle was blanked last week, note that Wilson threw TWO interceptions in the end zone. He’s had a week to “shake off” the rust and I expect a big game from the Seahawks QB in this one. The Seahawks have three losses by a total of nine points, so their record could be much better. The Cardinals have dropped two of three following a 7-0 SU start. I can’t see them winning all their road games this season. 9* Seattle |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +1.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 39 h 44 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): The Vikings finally stepped up and delivered a big-time performance last week, going to LA and defeating the Chargers 27-20 as three-point underdogs. Now 4-5 SU on the year, they seek to win B2B games for just the second time. Eight of their nine games have been decided by one score, including three in overtime and four by three points or less. So their won-loss record could easily be better. They have a positive point differential (+10) for the season. I believe this team is MUCH better than its record and is set to pull an “upset” over the division leading Packers on Sunday. Green Bay did it again last week, covering the spread for a ninth consecutive game as they defeated Seattle 17-0. The Packers’ current 9-0 ATS win streak is a franchise record and the third longest in history! Last week marked the return of Aaron Rodgers after he missed the loss to the Chiefs (GB’s only SU loss in the L9 games), but the former MVP has barely had any practice time the L2 weeks, not just because of COVID, but also due to a toe injury. Not that Rodgers needs a ton of practice time at this stage of his career, but here he’s facing a defense that is traditionally very good at home under Mike Zimmer. Minnesota allows 28.6 PPG on the road. But at home, they allow just 17.0 PPG. That’s a big difference. This week, it looks like they might get back both S Harrison Smith and CB Patrick Peterson, which would bring their secondary back to full health. Rodgers may be the QB that gets all the headlines in this matchup, but the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins is the one who actually leads the NFL in QB-INT ratio. Minnesota should probably be coming into this game on a five-game win streak (Dallas & Baltimore losses were both BRUTAL). This is a HUGE game for the Vikings to stay in the NFC North race and they are 19-6-1 ATS L26 as home dogs. 10* Minnesota |
|||||||
11-21-21 | 49ers v. Jaguars +6.5 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): While the Jaguars are far from my favorite team to endorse, I think this is a GREAT spot to fade the 49ers, who are on a short week and laying a big number on the road after upsetting the Rams Monday night. I took San Francisco on MNF and even I was shocked by the ease with which they won. It was 31-10, the team’s first home win in MORE THAN A YEAR. But despite the lopsided nature of the final score, yardage was pretty even - both for the game and on a per play basis. The big key was the Niners forcing two turnovers, one of which was a “pick six.” Really, you could make the case the Niners forced FOUR turnovers. There were two more Rams drives which ended inside the SF 20-yard line and did not result in any points. One saw the Rams attempt a fake field goal, which did not work. Another time they simply turned it over on downs. What I’m saying here is that we should temper our enthusiasm on the Niners somewhat. This is a team that had previously dropped five of six with the lone win coming against Chicago. Something else worth noting is just how poor the Niners have been as a favorite under Kyle Shanahan, going just 9-21-2 ATS. That includes 2-10 ATS L12 with NINE outright losses. This is the most points they’ve had to lay on the road this season. Jacksonville’s defense has only given up 29 points (total) the L2 games as they have covered the spread against both Buffalo and Indianapolis, two good teams. In fact, the Jaguars stunned the Bills two weeks ago here at home, 9-6 as two-touchdown underdogs. I mentioned earlier that SF just ended a long losing streak at home. Well, now the Jags look to end a 13-game losing streak vs. the NFC, which dates back three seasons. Not sure if they can end it, but take the points as I expect this to be a close game throughout. The 49ers are not as good as they “looked” Monday night. 8* Jacksonville |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Saints v. Eagles -1.5 | Top | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): I think the Eagles have proven themselves to be better than their 4-6 SU record. Not only do they sport a positive point differential on the season (+26) but they’ve also outgained opponents on a per play basis. Last week saw the Eagles go to Denver and win very convincingly, 30-13 (line closed as a pick ‘em). But one thing that the team has failed to do this year is win at home! They are 0-4 SU at Lincoln Financial Field. The only other teams not to win a home game in 2021 are the Lions (obviously) and the odious Falcons. I think it’s about time Philly gets 1st year HC Nick Sirianni a win. Lay the short number here. New Orleans is a team that impressed me early on this season, but they seem to be on a downward trajectory. They are 0-2 SU in November with both losses coming by two points. But don’t let last week’s 23-21 score against Tennessee fool you. It was a late TD that got them the cover. A failed two-point try ensured there would be no OT. While only losing by two points to the hottest team in the league may not sound all that bad to you, what about losing at home to Atlanta? That’s what the Saints did two weeks ago. I understand that the Saints have not lost three in a row since they opened 2016 at 0-3, but this is a team now being quarterbacked by backup Trevor Siemian. The strength of the Saints now resides on the defensive side of the ball, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. But the Eagles lead the NFL in rush yards the L3 weeks and gashed the Saints for 246 yards in an 24-21 upset last season. That was the first career start for QB Jalen Hurts. Miles Sanders is set to return this week for the Eagles, making their rushing attack all the more formidable. 8* Philadelphia |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Dolphins/Jets (1:00 ET): Well, I certainly wish the Jets would have started the archaic Joe Flacco last week when I had the Under in their game vs. Buffalo. Now, maybe it would have been a “moot point” as the Flyboys scored all of seven 17 points anyway. They gave up 45 (to Buffalo) as for the sixth straight time a Jets’ game went Over the total. I’m putting my foot down again this week, saying the streak comes to an end this week against a team that’s far less explosive than Buffalo, that being Miami. Take the Under. I know the Jets’ defense is bad, but they probably should not have given up 45 points last week. There was a disastrous six-minute stretch to open the second half where the Bills scored a TD on their opening possession, then got two more quick touchdowns off Jets’ interceptions. It was the third time in the last four games this Jets’ stop unit gave up 45+ points, something this league has not seen since the 1966 Giants! The good news for this week is that they will be facing Tua Tagovailoa, who has an injured thumb. The Dolphins have topped 22 points just one time in their last seven games. Jets’ HC Robert Salah’s specialty is the defensive side of the ball and he’s got to get this group playing better. But Miami’s defense probably feels pretty good about itself coming into this game. And it should, given it held Baltimore to only 10 points in a shocking Thursday night win last week. I had the Dolphins plus the points in that one and was taken aback by their performance. If they can shut Flacco’s old team down, then they can certainly shut down the 36-year old Flacco quarterbacking what is the league’s seventh lowest scoring offense (17.9 PPG). Four of Miami’s last five games have seen 43 or less total pts scored. This has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring division game. 10* Under Dolphins/Jets |
|||||||
11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 47 | Top | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
8* Under Patriots/Falcons (8:20 ET): The “world” figures to be on New England here and I really can’t blame them. They are off a dominant 45-7 win over Cleveland where three of the TD drives went for 92+ yards. The Pats have won and covered four straight games and thanks to a couple blowouts, they are tied (w/ the Cardinals) for the league’s 2nd best YTD point differential, behind only Buffalo. Bill Belichick’s team is also a perfect 4-0 (straight up) on the road and is going against an Atlanta team that is not only 0-3 SU/ATS at home, but also off a horrendous 43-3 loss to Dallas last week. But I just can’t pull the trigger on a Thursday night road favorite of this size, even if my own power ratings say that it’s probably the right move. Instead, let’s turn to the total. After giving up an 84-yard TD drive on the opening possession, the Patriots’ defense held Cleveland to just 133 total yards the rest of the game. That marked the third time in four weeks that the Pats held their opponent to 13 points or less. Atlanta certainly didn’t do much offensively last week, gaining only 214 total yards and scoring just three points. So it stands to reason that the Falcons won’t be doing much scoring here. They only average 19.8 PPG to begin with and that number actually drops at home, down to 16.3. Making matters worse for the underdog, they are without Calvin Ridley and probably Cordarrelle Patterson (game-time decision). New England’s defense is #2 overall in scoring and allows only 14.5 PPG on the road. So again, don’t expect many points from the Falcons Thursday night. Let’s just hope that it’s an off-night for the Patriots offensively. If so, this should be an easy Under, a bet that has cashed each of the L5 times Atlanta has played on Thursday night. 8* Under Patriots/Falcons |
|||||||
11-15-21 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (8:15 ET): The 49ers currently sit at 3-5 SU, but a win here could “save” their season. They face Jacksonville next week, so there is a decent chance the Niners could be back to .500 at the 10-game mark. But first things first, they do NEED to win tonight. They face a Rams team that they’ve defeated four straight times going back to the start of the 2019 season. What’s really interesting about this matchup is that San Francisco is one of three teams (Detroit & Philly are the others) that are still winless at home. The Rams are one of three teams (Cards, Pats) to still be perfect on the road. Both teams are also coming off frustrating losses. The Rams fell to the Titans 28-16 last Sunday night in what was their worst performance of the year. Despite outgaining Tennessee 347-194, LA was never really “in” the game as they trailed 21-3 at halftime. The game really swung on B2B Matt Stafford INT’s in the second quarter, one of which was returned for a TD (the other set Tenn up at the LA 2-yard line). Remember that the Titans didn’t have Derrick Henry. As for San Francisco, turnovers (-3) were also the culprit in their 31-17 loss last week to an Arizona team that was forced to start backup QB Colt McCoy. Even though both teams lost last week, the Rams are clearly the more “popular” side here as they are 8-2 SU. They also just signed Odell Beckham Jr. But Beckham is as overrated as it gets. I respect the Rams, who have been favored in every game this season, but keep in mind that the Niners have been favored in every game but one. They’ve obviously had the Rams’ number and three of the four wins the last two years have been as underdogs. This game is more important to the home team, who should at least be able to keep things within a field goal. 10* San Francisco |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Chiefs v. Raiders +2.5 | Top | 41-14 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
8* Las Vegas (8:20 ET): People keep waiting for Kansas City to get going. But what if it never happens? The Chiefs did win last week, but it was “ugly” (13-7 over the Rodgers-less Packers) and they failed to cover the spread … AGAIN. Over their last 20 games (including playoffs), KC is now a money-burning 4-16 ATS. They are 0-6 ATS this season against teams with winning records. With the Raiders ranked higher in my personal power ratings, I will definitely be taking the points on Sunday Night Football. Las Vegas fell to 5-3 SU on the year with a surprising loss to the Giants last week. Coming out of a bye, that was certainly not the result the Silver and Black was looking for. They did outgain the G-Men 403-247, but were undone by three turnovers, one of which was an interception returned for a touchdown. That “pick-six” was the difference in the game. Last week was the “dreaded” 1 PM ET start for the Raiders, a “West Coast” team. I expect them to play much better this week at home, where they are 3-1 SU. At the start of the season, everyone was rightly pointing to the Chiefs’ defense as the reason for their surprisingly poor record. They allowed 30+ points each of the first five games. But what about the offense? It’s now three straight games (and four of five) that Patrick Mahomes and company have scored 20 points or less. They were actually outgained by Green Bay last Sunday, 301-237. This team is a mess right now. I just think that the wrong team is favored in this AFC West matchup. 8* Las Vegas |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Packers | Top | 0-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
10* Seattle (4:25 ET): With Russell Wilson back in the fold, I’m looking for the Seahawks to outscore Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week. Yes, Rodgers did clear protocol on Saturday and thus is able to play here. So these teams should look much different than the last time we saw them. Now for Seattle, they are certainly hoping for a result similar to what they had vs. Jacksonville two weeks ago. With Geno Smith at the helm, they won that game 31-7. Green Bay is looking to bounce back from last week’s ugly 13-7 loss to the Chiefs where they were forced to start Jordan Love at QB. Though Seattle comes into this game with a 3-5 SU record, they actually have a positive point differential (+12) that’s not far off from Green Bay (who is only +19 despite being 7-2 SU). Once again, I do not feel the Packers are as good as their record shows, something I was adamant about two years ago with them. It’s pretty remarkable that the Pack have covered eight consecutive games, though it should be pointed out that three of their wins were by a field goal or less. The fact that the Seahawks are off a bye and that Rodgers has had no actual practice time this week is a huge advantage for the road dog this week. I firmly believe that GB’s ATS win streak - which is not only the franchise’s longest in the Super Bowl era, but also tied for the longest in the entire NFL the L3 seasons - is due to end. Wilson has thrived as a dog, going 24-12-1 ATS and winning half of the games outright. When getting four or more points, he’s 10-1 ATS and has won outright seven times. This game sets up beautifully for Seattle against a GB team that’s due to lose. Take the points. 10* Seattle |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Seahawks v. Packers OVER 49.5 | Top | 0-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
9* Over Seahawks/Packers (4:25 ET): With Russell Wilson back in the fold, I’m looking for the Seahawks to outscore Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week. Yes, Rodgers did clear protocol on Saturday and thus is able to play here. So these teams should look much different than the last time we saw them. Now for Seattle, they are certainly hoping for a result similar to what they had vs. Jacksonville two weeks ago. With Geno Smith at the helm, they won that game 31-7. Green Bay is looking to bounce back from last week’s ugly 13-7 loss to the Chiefs where they were forced to start Jordan Love at QB. I know that they were facing the Jaguars, but Seattle scoring 31 points without Wilson is impressive. In three of the four games this year that Wilson has finished, the Seahawks have put up 28 or more points. So you should expect them to “carry their weight” with this Over play. I also have some concerns about their defense, which gives up more than 400 YPG and was historically bad the first five weeks of the season. Rodgers didn’t practice all week, but the Packers have scored at least 24 points in each of his last seven starts. They average 28.7 PPG at home. Green Bay has gone Under in six straight games, but this matchup has “shootout” written all over it. The Over is 7-3 in the Packers last 10 games after a loss. The last two times that Rodgers and Wilson have met, their teams combined to score 51 total points. I expect even more than that here. 9* Over Seahawks/Packers |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 47.5 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
9* Under Bills/Jets (1:00 ET): The last five Jets’ games have all gone Over the total. That seems odd given that the Flyboys are 27th in the league in scoring at just 18.0 points per game. But they’ve put up 30+ points in B2B games, including a shocking win over Cincinnati two weeks ago. They’d scored 14 or fewer points in four of the first six games. Now the defense has been shredded the L3 games as it’s given up a total of 130 points! There hasn’t been a single game all year where the Jets held an opponent under 24 points. Now you would think that this figures to be another “long day at the office” for the Jets defense as the Bills pay a visit to MetLife Stadium. However, Buffalo didn’t even get in the end zone last week in an absolutely shocking 9-6 loss to the Jaguars. While I am banking on Josh Allen and company bouncing back here, the Bills defense should also handle its business. Though no one was talking about it after the loss to the Jags, the defense has now allowed 11 points or fewer four times in 2021. Since 2019, Buffalo is 9-1 Under when off a SU loss. That includes 5-0 after their last five losses. A banged up offensive line may mean they won’t score as many points as you think. As for the Jets offense, I know that backup QB Mike White has captured the hearts and minds of the fanbase, but consider me still skeptical. The Bills haven’t allowed any Jets player to run for 100 yards since 2016. Expect that streak to continue here. This is the highest O/U line in any Jets’ game this season. 9* Under Bills/Jets |
|||||||
11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:20 ET): The Dolphins got me last week, covering the spread in a 17-9 win over the Texans. In my analysis for that game, I admitted that it was a bit risky to go with Houston, even though Miami came in with the same 1-7 SU record. For what it’s worth, the Texans did have their chance to cover, but elected to kick a field goal (down 11) rather than go for a TD at the three-yard line. But that’s “water under the bridge” now. It’s a new week and the Dolphins are hosting Baltimore Thursday night. My recommendation here is to take the points. You might be a little shocked by that, given my decision to fade Miami last week against a lowly team like the Texans. But the ‘Fins are obviously not favored in this game and there can be no denying that Baltimore has been “living dangerously” this season. Four of the Ravens six victories have been by six points or less, two of them requiring overtime. Last week saw them battle back from a 14-point deficit in the 2H to beat Minnesota 34-31 in OT. While the Ravens held the edge in total yards in that game, 500-318, that’s a little misleading in that they ran 37 more plays than the Vikings. John Harbaugh’s team was actually outgained on a per play basis by Minnesota. As mentioned above, last week wasn’t the first close call Baltimore has pulled out this season. The last time they played in primetime, they were down 16 with just over 10 minutes to go against Indianapolis. They won that game in OT as well. Don’t forget about when they needed a 66-yard FG to beat Detroit or a late fumble to win by 1 against KC (a game the Ravens led for only 3:14). Another thing to consider here is that the Ravens are playing on the road for the first time in over a month. Jacoby Brissett possibly starting again for Miami is a non-issue for me as he’s already proven he’s no downgrade from Tua. 10* Miami |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Packers v. Chiefs OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
8* Over Packers/Chiefs (4:25 ET): Well, some of the luster of this matchup has certainly been lost, eh? Not only is Kansas City just 4-4 SU on the year, but Green Bay is going to play without Aaron Rodgers, who has tested positive for COVID-19. This comes on the heels of an improbable Packers’ victory last Thursday (24-21 at Arizona) where the team was without its top three receivers. Yes, it’s VERY tempting to want to fade GB here (especially because they are on a 7-0 ATS run). But believe it or not, I can’t trust the lousy Chiefs defense laying this many points. So I’ll call for another streak to end - the Pack’s 5-0 Under run. Kansas City is a horrible 4-15 ATS its last 19 games. They did not cover Monday night when they beat the Giants 20-17, nor did they really come close to as 10.5-point favorites. Interestingly, the Chiefs’ last three wins have all been against the NFC East. Last week was the second best defensive effort of the season so far, but KC has allowed 27 or more points six times in 2021. Now, with Rodgers out, can the Packers score that many? Jordan Love, a former 1st round pick, will be the starting QB and he’ll have those top three receivers (Adams, Lazard, Valdes-Scantling) back. So maybe they can. I also have to think that this Chiefs’ offense is due to start scoring more. In three of the last four games they’ve been held to 20 points or less. That’s shocking. I love how much the O/U line has dropped with Rodgers out and think there’s some real nice value on the Over now. Truthfully, I was thinking about taking the Over anyway in this matchup (had Rodgers played). His absence must be accounted for, but I like the Over on a lower number just as much as I did the Over on the higher number with Rodgers in there. 8* Over Packers/Chiefs |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Chargers v. Eagles +2 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 58 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (4:05 ET): The Eagles were not expected to be very good this season. With a 3-5 SU record, one might argue that they are in fact “living up to expectations.” However, I think they’ve played a lot better than people may realize. It’s something I talked about when taking them - plus the points - against Carolina a few weeks ago. The Eagles have outgained their opponents on a per play basis this season! That’s still the case and coming off a 44-6 beatdown of the Lions last week, they also now have a positive YTD point differential! I think Philly is BETTER than the Chargers. Take the points in this one. The Chargers have not won since October 10th when they defeated Cleveland in a wild 47-42 game. Even then, the Lightning Bolts needed to stage a comeback from a two touchdown deficit in the second half. Since that last win, the team has been blown out by Baltimore (34-6) and then, off a bye, lost at home to New England 27-24. You may recall I had the Patriots last week. Similar to this matchup, my power ratings said that LA should have been the underdog when they were in fact favored. At least, the Chargers had home field advantage last week. This week they do not. The Eagles are 0-3 SU at home, so expect them to really want to win here for 1st year HC Nick Sirianni. Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert is banged up (right hand injury) and was limited in practice Wednesday. That makes me like the home team even more in this one. Expect the Eagles to exploit a lousy Chargers’ run defense, which is giving up a league-worst 159 YPG. The Eagles just ran for a season-high 236 yards on the ground last week. Special teams remains an albatross for the Chargers as they currently rank 32nd (per DVOA) for the third year in a row in the “third phase” of the game. The Eagles are 6-2 ATS L8 as home dogs. 10* Philadelphia |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Texans +6.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:00 ET): Cross your fingers and say a prayer, we’re taking the Texans this week. Now this play has far more to do with Houston’s opponent. Miami shouldn’t be laying this many points to ANYBODY as I have them rated as the third worst team in the NFL right now. Are the Texans 32nd (i.e. last)? Yes, they are. But I do not believe this spread is an accurate representation of the actual difference between the two teams right now. The Dolphins have been outscored by 95 points this season and haven’t won a game since Week 1 when they defeated the Patriots - by a single point. Houston’s lone win also came in Week (at Jacksonville). Since then, they’ve lost six times by double digits. The one exception was against the Patriots, a game they led most of the way. There have been some really bad blowout losses for David Culley’s team and last week’s game vs. the Rams was far worse than the final score (38-22) made it seem. But look at some of the teams the Texans have had to play so far. The Rams, Cardinals and Bills are the three highest rated teams in my current power rankings. Do I think Houston wins this week? Not necessarily. But I do believe they will keep this game close (as in within one possession). Miami has had a few more close calls than Houston this season, with three losses coming by a FG or less. But they still have the same seven-game losing streak the Texans do. It was a game effort for three quarters last week up in Buffalo, but the offense still only managed to score 11 points. In six of their eight games this season, the Fins have scored 20 points or less. That’s why I am fading in this spot. Also, Tyrod Taylor is set to return and be the starting QB for Houston. That’s an upgrade from Davis Mills. The Texans have a positive point differential for the six quarters Taylor has played this season. 8* Houston |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Broncos +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
8* Denver (1:00 ET): Dallas surprised all of us last Sunday night when they went to Minnesota and won 20-16 (as 4.5-point underdogs) despite not having the services of QB Dak Prescott. It was the sixth straight win for the Cowboys on the field and at 7-0 ATS, they are the only team to still be perfect at the betting window. I’m banking on that latter streak to come to an end Sunday as America’s Team is caught laying its biggest number of the year. Prescott is expected to play, but regardless of his status I am taking the points. What an odd two years it’s been for Denver when it comes to the oddsmakers. Last season, they were the ONLY team in the entire NFL not to be favored a single time. This year, they’ve been favored in seven of eight games! After starting 2021 a perfect 3-0 SU, the Broncos went on a four-game losing streak. But they picked up a much needed win last week (at home), beating Washington 17-10. They did so despite amassing only 273 yards of total offense. But a “win is a win” in this league and HC Vic Fangio will take it. Denver actually has the best YTD point differential (+20) in the AFC West. Do I think that will hold? Probably not. But the Broncos have let only three teams score more than 17 points this season. Only one of their losses has been by greater than 10 points. I know Von Miller is now gone (traded to the Rams), but I still look for the underdog to make this a close game. The Cowboys are certainly long overdue NOT to cover and after surprising everyone with the win last Sunday night, this is a great time to fade them. 8* Denver |
|||||||
11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
8* Under Jets/Colts (8:20 ET): The Jets are 2-5. That WL record is not nearly as surprising as the two teams that they beat, the Titans and Bengals, who are a combined 11-5 SU. Both Jets’ wins have been by exactly three points (34-31 over Cincy LW and 27-20 over Tennessee in Week 4) and represent their two highest scoring games of the season. The win over the Bengals saw the Jets score 2 TDs in the final five minutes while the win over the Titans required OT. Both wins were also at home. The Jets are still 30th in scoring (16.3 PPG). What I’m saying is that, as a road underdog this week, they probably aren’t going to score many points. Now recent Colts’ games have been high-scoring. Indy is off a painful 34-31 OT loss to the Titans where they blew an early 2 TD lead. That leaves them at 3-5 SU overall and three games off the pace in the AFC South. It’s actually more than a three-game disadvantage they face in the division as they’ve now been swept by Tennessee. Carson Wentz and the offense have scored 30+ points in three consecutive games, but that’s not a streak I see continuing here. It’s interesting that over the L2 weeks, the Colts have averaged just 301 total yards per game. Two touchdowns in the Jets’ game last week vs. the Bengals were scored after drives that started inside the 15-yard line (one for each team). Backup QB Mike White was a nice story for the Jets last week, but I don’t really trust him in his first career road start. After allowing just 21 points total the previous two games, the Colts defense performed better than you think last week. One of Tennessee’s TDs came on an INT return. Of course, Indy also benefited (early in the game) from a turnover, which allowed them to start a TD drive inside the Titans’ 10-yard line. 8* Under Jets/Colts |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -114 | 102 h 48 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:25 ET): Two teams off byes meet in this week’s Sunday Night Football Game. But despite an extra week of rest, the Cowboys are not necessarily healthy. There’s some question as to whether or not QB Dak Prescott (strained calf) will even play here. Regardless if he does or not, I think Dallas is likely to lose this game and suffer its first ATS defeat of the season. They enter as the only unbeaten ATS team in the league (6-0) and are 5-1 SU, the lone loss coming to Tampa Bay on Opening Night. Minnesota is 3-3 SU, however I believe the Vikings are better than their record. After suffering some very close losses in the early part of the season (at Cincinnati, at Arizona and Cleveland), they’ve battled back to square away their record at .500. While they needed OT to get by the Panthers 34-28 two weeks ago, statistically they dominated that game with a 571-306 edge in total yards. Those early season losses to Cincinnati and Arizona (both on the road) no longer look as bad, given where those teams are at now. The Vikings offense may only be 14th in scoring, but it is fifth in total yards per game. Two weeks ago, the Cowboys were very lucky to win, let alone cover, in New England. Obviously, Prescott’s status could change everything, but I liked the idea of fading America’s Team even before the severity of the calf injury was known. It’s not like Dallas is going to cover the spread in every game this season and their defense is giving up 6.5 yards per play so far. The Vikings’ defense is tied for the league lead in sacks (with 21), so even if Prescott does play Sunday night, he’s likely to be under duress the whole time. Not good for a signal caller dealing with a calf injury. 10* Minnesota |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints +5.5 | Top | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 76 h 0 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): Tampa Bay couldn’t score ONE touchdown in the second half last week vs. the Bears. Granted they didn’t HAVE to. But I could have used one. I bet the Over in their game vs. the Bears, which was 35-3 at halftime and looking good in that regard. But only a field goal was scored in the 2H and things stayed Under with the Super Bowl Champs winning 38-3. It will undoubtedly be much tougher this week when the Bucs travel to New Orleans to face the rival Saints. New Orleans is off a somewhat ugly 13-10 win in Seattle Monday night. Because that’s fresh on bettors’ minds and Tampa Bay is off a blowout win, I don’t anticipate a rash of people running to the window to play the home team in this one. But I’m here to tell you that the Saints should not be discounted. This team has a very good defense, which is now the identity of the team with HOF QB Drew Brees retired. The Saints are also going to be highly motivated this week. Not just because they are up against the defending Super Bowl Champs (who knocked them out of the playoffs LY), but also because this is just the second game at the Superdome this season. Tampa Bay ran for 182 yards last week on Chicago. That was rather easily a season-high. But I wouldn’t expect them to reach half that number this week. New Orleans is giving up just 81 YPG on the ground. That’s #3 in the league. Now the Bucs defense is #1 against the run. But a big key here is that New Orleans is a home dog of four or more points for just the third time ever under HC Sean Payton. They are 10-2 ATS as a dog since 2018. Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS on the road this season. My power rankings call this basically a toss up, so I will obviously take the points. 8* New Orleans |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Patriots +6 v. Chargers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 32 m | Show |
8* New England (4:05 ET): It was “just the Jets,” but the Patriots made quite the emphatic statement last week with a 54-13 win in Foxboro. It definitely made me take notice that this COULD still end up being a playoff team under Bill Belichick. Now I know their three wins have come at the expense of the Jets (twice) and Texans, who are perhaps the two worst teams in the NFL. But the Pats also have three losses that have occurred by either two points or less or in overtime. So their SU record could certainly be better than it is. They now have a YTD point differential of +39 (better than the 4-2 Chargers). So I’m definitely taking the points. Los Angeles is coming off its bye. They needed it as the last time we saw the Lightning Bolts, they were getting thrashed 34-6 by Baltimore. It was easily the worst loss for the Chargers this season. They’ve actually had better luck in close games, which is rare for the Chargers, who have three wins by six points or less. Another issue for the Chargers this season is their run defense, which gives up the most yards per game and attempt in the league. In addition to rookie QB Mac Jones getting better every week, New England ran for a season-best 148 yards last week. The Patriots always seem to have the Chargers’ number. They are 6-0 against them since 2010, including playoffs. That run also includes a 45-0 beatdown from last season where special teams played a key role. Once again, this year finds New England with a massive edge in special teams over LA. I am simply going to trust my own power rankings on this one as they say the visitors are the better team. 8* New England |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Panthers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 94 h 29 m | Show |
9* Carolina (1:00 ET): Two 3-4 teams from the NFC South meet this week in Atlanta. The Falcons are undoubtedly “hotter” at the moment as they’ve won two straight games, one before and one after a bye. But I remain unconvinced that they are a better team than the Panthers. All three of Atlanta’s wins have been by one score, two of them by three points or less. After YEARS of misery in close games, the Dirty Birds won on a last second field goal last week, beating the lowly Dolphins 30-28. Carolina was once 3-0 but has now dropped four straight. They are off their most embarrassing result to date, a 25-3 loss at the Giants. QB Darnold was benched in his return to MetLife Stadium. RB Christian McCaffery remains OUT due to injury. All reports indicate that Darnold will be back as the starter this week. Regardless if those reports end up being true (I believe they are), I’ll be taking the points in this divisional matchup. Atlanta isn’t just 0-2 SU at home this season; they are also 0-6 SU and ATS their L6 as home favorites. Even with the Falcons’ two-game win streak, my power ratings disagree with them being favored here. They have a -41 YTD point differential as they were blown out in the first two games by the Bucs and Eagles. Their three wins have been against the Jets, Giants and Dolphins, three teams that are a combined 4-16 SU. Carolina’s YTD point differential is 0 as their first three losses were all by eight points or less. The Panthers won here in Atlanta LY when they were a weaker team. 9* Carolina |
|||||||
10-31-21 | 49ers v. Bears OVER 39.5 | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 94 h 28 m | Show |
10* Over 49ers/Bears (1:00 ET): Holding an Over ticket in my hand last week, I felt pretty good at halftime of the Bears-Bucs game. Tampa Bay had just scored its FIFTH touchdown of the first half to go up 35-3. All I would need in the second half was 10 points. I got three. Probably my most frustrating defeat so far this NFL season. But I’m going to “go for it again” this week as the Bears (now 6-0 Under L6 games) host the 49ers in a battle of two NFC teams that are absolutely desperate for a victory. San Francisco has lost four straight games. Being in the same division as the Cardinals and Rams, the Niners can pretty much “kiss goodbye” any chances of winning the NFC West. Remember that at one time they were 2-0 and looking like a lock to be one of the most improved teams in the entire league (finished 6-10 SU LY). But the bottom has dropped out, mostly because of injuries. QB Jimmy Garoppolo returned last week, but the offense could only manage 18 points in a rain-soaked loss to the Colts on SNF. I do think they’re set to do better here, especially if Khalil Mack can’t go for the Bears. Rookie QB Justin Fields, who everyone wanted to see play, has been thrown to the wolves in Chicago. It doesn’t help that Matt Nagy is looking more and more like a “lame-duck” head coach. But I think Fields and this much maligned Bears offense can find some success this week against a 49ers defense that has given up 28 or more points in three of its last four games. This is a REALLY low total for 2021, especially considering SF is 5-1-1 Over the L7 times it has been road chalk. 10* Over 49ers/Bears |
|||||||
10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -6 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:20 ET): Two of the league’s hottest teams collide Thursday night in Glendale as the Cardinals host the Packers. Being that it’s a 7-0 team vs. a 6-1 team, this was thought to be the best TNF game of the season (at least to date). However, there is trouble in the Green Bay camp. There is a chance they could be without their top THREE wide receivers here. Both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard landed on the COVID-19 list, so they are out. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been on IR and missed the L4 games with a hamstring injury. I know GB has Aaron Rodgers, but he can’t catch the ball. Truthfully, even before this ill-timed news broke, I was already looking to fade the Packers this week. They were pretty fortunate to defeat Washington 24-14 last week and cover as 8.5-point favorites. The Football Team turned the ball over THREE times inside the Packers’ 10-yard line in the game. That pretty much negated a 430-304 edge in total yards. The loss of Adams would be critical to the Packers’ offense. Leading up to the game, you will probably hear that the team is 6-0 all-time with Adams out of the lineup. That is true. But so is the fact the gap in number of receptions between him and the team’s 2nd leading receiver is the largest between any #1 and #2 WR on any team in the league. I should probably reiterate that Arizona is undefeated! The Cardinals currently have the best scoring differential in the league at +111. That’s significantly better than Green Bay’s +22. My personal power rankings already had this spread north of a touchdown and that was BEFORE the Packers learned about the positive COVID tests. Only one of Arizona’s wins this year has come by fewer than seven points. While Green Bay won’t be quite the “public dog” I’d hoped they’d be, we’re still getting a discount on the home team, even at the current price. 10* Arizona |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers UNDER 43 | Top | 30-18 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
8* Under Colts/49ers (8:20 ET): I’d like to think that, coming off a bye, San Francisco will be ready to roll here. But this team has not been good as a favorite under HC Kyle Shanahan, going just 8-19-2 ATS including 2-7 SU the last nine times they’ve been laying three points or more. Even with QB Jimmy Garoppolo set to make his return, there are still a litany of injuries this team is dealing with. It’s not like Garoppolo was all that effective before getting injured anyway. He completed only 62% of his passes the L2 starts with two interceptions. Meanwhile, it was an 0-3 start for Indianapolis this season and things were looking bleak. But the Colts have turned it around a bit by winning two of the last three games and going 3-0 ATS. Honestly, they probably feel like they should also be 3-0 SU over that stretch as they blew a big lead against Baltimore on MNF and lost that one in OT. Thanks to playing the Texans last week, it was an easy bounce back and the defense did its job, holding Houston to only three points. The last time the 49ers beat the Colts was 2001. Obviously, you can count and know that was 20 years ago. But considering that was the game that inspired Jim Mora’s infamous “PLAYOFFS” rant, it might as well have been a lifetime ago. Who knows if either of these teams can get back in the playoff race in 2021. But what I do know is that Sunday night should be a low-scoring game. 8* Under Colts/49ers |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Bears v. Bucs OVER 47 | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -106 | 46 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Bears/Bucs (4:25 ET): If Justin Fields thought going against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers was tough, wait until he gets a hold of Tom Brady and the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. This should be Fields' toughest matchup as a pro. I just can’t see the Bears being able to trade points with the Bucs. But I do think they can score enough to help send this one Over the total. The Bears’ last five games have all gone Under. A matchup with a top three scoring offense should change that. Take the Over. The Bucs have not faced a good offense since suffering their only loss, 34-24 to the Rams. Since that loss, they’ve beaten New England, Miami and Philadelphia. Yet only that New England game, which was a highly emotional affair (Brady’s return to Foxboro), saw less than 50 total points scored. Other than at New England, Tampa Bay games have averaged more than 60 PPG this season! All three of their home games this season have gone Over. Brady will not have to worry about one of Chicago’s top pass rushers (Robert Quinn) as he is on the COVID list. The Bucs have scored at least 30 points in every home game so far and twice gone over 40. Obviously, I’m expecting a lot of points from them today. But I also expect their defense to give up a surprising number of yards in the passing game to Fields. Before going up against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles last Thursday, the Bucs had allowed at least 262 yards passing to every opponent. If the Bears get to 20, which they should, then this is an easy Over. 10* Over Bears/Bucs |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 46 | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 53 m | Show |
9* Over Bengals/Ravens (1:00 ET): I can understand why the “sharp money” seems to like the Under in this matchup. It’s a divisional game, which means the teams are familiar with one another. Also a Cincinnati team that is 5-0 Under its last five games has been held to just 19 points in its last three meetings with Baltimore. However, this is a much better Bengals team in 2021. They come in at 4-2 SU and just put up a season-high 34 points last. While that was against the lowly Lions, there’s been only one game all year when Cincy failed to score at least 22 points. I’m on the Over. The Ravens scored 34 points last week in what was the most impressive wins I’ve seen from anybody this NFL season. They crushed the red-hot Chargers, holding Justin Herbert to just six points. But this Baltimore defense has been kind of “Jekyll and Hyde.” While there have been three times they’ve held the opponent to 17 points or less (Lions, Broncos, Chargers), there have also been three times they’ve given up 25+ points (Raiders, Chiefs, Colts). Where there’s no mystery is on the offensive side of the ball at home. In three home games, the Ravens have averaged 33.7 PPG and topped 30 every time. I already mentioned how the previous three meetings between these teams have seen the Bengals not score many points. The same cannot be said about the Ravens. They’ve averaged 38 PPG in those three matchups! Here at home (see above), I have full confidence in them scoring a bunch of points on Sunday. Cincinnati should be able to stick with them though as the Ravens’ defense is allowing 277 yards passing per game. Joe Burrow is a lot better now than when he faced the Ravens as a rookie. He has Ja'Marr Chase to throw to as well. 9* Over Bengals/Ravens |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Washington Football Team +9 v. Packers | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -123 | 43 h 53 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): Seemingly all is well in Green Bay right now as the Packers are riding high on a five-game win streak. They’ve covered the spread in every win as well. But despite the 5-1 SU record, they have an unimpressive point differential of only +8. For comparison sake, all other NFC teams that are 5-1 SU (or better) have a YTD point differential of at least +51. So the Packers are really trailing the other division leaders in that regard. Now, the reason for the Packers’ less than impressive point differential, is the 38-3 beatdown they were handed in Week 1 by the Saints. But I feel this is worth mentioning. Two of the wins have been by a FG or less. Washington, like Green Bay, was a division winner last season. But unlike the Pack, it doesn’t seem like the Football Team is destined to repeat. They are 2-4 SU overall with those two wins coming by a combined five points over the Giants and Falcons. Ron Rivera’s team is also tied for the worst ATS mark in the league at 1-5. The only game they covered was the miracle comeback in Atlanta. But despite their defense not performing as well as expected thus far, I view this as a great “buy low” spot on Washington. This is a team that’s led in every game this season but one (at Buffalo). Green Bay’s defense has allowed a TD every time an opposing offense has entered the red zone this season. That’s bad. This has all the makings of a “trap game” for the Packers, who know that they have a “short week” coming up before a visit to undefeated Arizona on Thursday. Give credit to the Pack for the five-game win streak. It’s not easy to win five straight in this league. But they haven’t really beaten any great teams to this point. It’s even harder to win SIX straight, let alone cover six in a row, so I’m grabbing the points in this one. 8* Washington |
|||||||
10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns -1.5 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:20 ET): This may seem like a “risky” bet, given how banged up the Browns are on the offensive side of the ball. With it being a short week, backup Case Keenum will be the starting QB and he won’t have either of the team's two main running backs (Hunt, Chubb) to hand the ball off to. Receiver is a question mark as is the offensive line. But Keenum knows HC Kevin Stefanski’s offense from the time the two spent together in Minnesota. This is the first time the Browns have lost two in a row under Stefanski and I just can’t see them losing a third in a row. Not at home against another reeling team. Lay the points. Denver’s 3-0 SU start to the season now seems like a distant memory. It’s critical to keep in mind that those three wins came at the expense of the Giants, Jets & Jaguars, who are a collective 3-15 SU this season. The Broncos have since nosedived with three straight losses (Ravens, Steelers, Raiders), all of which have been by eight points or more. Their QB (Teddy Bridgewater) is far from 100% right now (foot, quad) and the same could be said for a defense which gave up SEVEN plays of 25+ yards to the Raiders last week (most since ‘91) and is down three starting linebackers. Cleveland played a terrible game last week vs. Arizona, but they easily could have been 5-0 going into that game. They blew halftime leads against both the Chiefs and the Chargers. I know this isn’t “the same team” as those first five games, but I think the Browns will be motivated (in front of a National TV audience) to prove their detractors wrong. Denver was tied for the league lead in net upsets (+5) last season, something that typically does NOT carry over to the following year. It’s interesting that they’ve already lost three games as a favorite this season and this is the first time they’ve been an underdog. The number has come down significantly throughout the week to where there’s value on the Browns. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
10-18-21 | Bills -5.5 v. Titans | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 37 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (8:20 ET): I said it in my analysis for the Sunday night game last week, but I’ll repeat it here. The Bills are the best team in the league right now. They have a +108 point differential after going to Kansas City and winning 38-20 as 2.5-point underdogs. No other team in the league (entering Sunday) has a YTD point differential better than +62. Each of their four straight wins have been by at least 18 points. So while the spread seems high for Monday night’s game in Tennessee, I’m laying it. The Titans are 3-2 and will probably win their division. But I don’t think they’re an elite team by any means or even as good as they’ve been the last couple years. Winning the AFC South should not be viewed as any major achievement as it’s the worst division in football. Two of the Titans’ three wins this year have been against division rivals (Indianapolis and Jacksonville) and they were actually outgained last week by the Jags as the defense gave up nearly 7.0 yards per play to a winless team. Don’t forget the Titans also lost to the Jets. They are certainly not on the Bills’ level. Buffalo’s offense leads the league in scoring and QB Josh Allen should have a field day against a suspect Tennessee defense. For the year, the Titans are being outgained on a per play basis. On offense, they have allowed the most sacks in the league (20) and have a banged up WR corps. Last week saw the Bills avenge their loss in LY’s AFC Championship Game. Here the revenge tour continues as they lost 42-16 to Tennessee last season. They remember that and won’t take their foot off the gas pedal. 10* Buffalo |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Raiders v. Broncos -180 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -180 | 102 h 8 m | Show |
7* Denver Money Line (4:25 ET): So, uhh, it’s been a rather tumultuous week out in Vegas with now former Raiders HC Jon Gruden resigning in disgrace. The team has to still play a football game this week mind you and to compound matters, the Silver and Black are off B2B losses as they hit the road to face Denver. The Broncos are in a similar situation in that they too have lost two straight following a 3-0 SU start. But they are at home and HC Vic Fangio’s emails are probably pretty nondescript. I look for Denver to be the team that ends its slide and will play them on the money line. There’s really something pretty remarkable with this Broncos team. They were the ONLY team in the league not to be favored a single time last season. Now, in 2021, they have been favored in each of the first six games! I know that their three wins are against the Giants, Jets & Jaguars (who are a combined (2-13 SU), but you can argue (based on the pointspread) that the Broncos have actually underachieved to this point. Now they probably shouldn’t have been favored against the Ravens or at Pittsburgh. But this mess known as the Raiders is a team they should certainly beat. Long time special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia is the one left to pick up the pieces in the wake of Gruden’s departure. It’s obviously a very tough situation for someone with no prior NFL HC experience. He takes over an offense that has been really struggling of late with only 23 points scored in the L2 games. The Raiders rank 31st (next to last) in yards per rush. Two of their three wins came in OT, so I view them as being fortunate to even be 3-2 SU. Given the circumstances, this should be a win for the Broncos. 7* Denver Money Line |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +4 | Top | 35-29 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 8 m | Show |
10* New England (4:25 ET): Dallas is the only team in the league to still be undefeated ATS. The Cowboys ran their mark to 5-0 ATS (and 4-1 SU) with a convincing 44-20 win last week (as seven-point favorites). But the team they beat (the Giants) resembled the “walking wounded” by the end of that game. By the time the second half kicked off, the G-Men were without SEVEN of their Week 1 starters on offense. This included QB Jones, RB Barkley and WR Golladay. So it’s no wonder that the Cowboys were able to win so easily. This week’s opponent seems a lot healthier and is also coming off a win. Now it was closer than anyone expected, but the Patriots did get by the Texans 25-22. This will now be the second time in three weeks that the Pats are home underdogs, something that never happened all that much when Tom Brady was the QB here. You may recall that I took the Patriots two weeks ago when they hosted Brady’s new team (Tampa Bay) and they came away with the cash, covering the number in a close 19-17 loss. If they can stick with the Bucs (lone team to beat Dallas this year), then they can stick with - or beat - the Cowboys. It all starts with a New England defense that gives up only 18.3 PPG. That’s top five in the league. Then, as I discussed in the analysis for the TB game, Bill Belichick has been great as an underdog throughout his career. He’s 49-24-1 ATS here in NE, including 25-10-1 since 2006. As a home dog, Belichick is 15-4 ATS with 12 outright wins. Dallas is an extremely “public” side this week and I definitely trust my money with Belichick more so than I do with Mike McCarthy. Take the points. 10* New England |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 102 h 48 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (4:05 ET): Arizona is 5-0 SU and the only unbeaten left in the NFL. But they were also the only team to win last week while being outgained on a per play basis. The 49ers outgained them for the game (338-304) and 5.7 to 5.1 per play. It was a lucky break facing a rookie QB (Trey Lance), who had to make his first career start on the road. Eventually, you know that the Cardinals are going to lose a game. This week, the Cards are poised to be without several key players as they go on the road to face a good Cleveland team. This is where the first loss happens. Cleveland is 3-2 with the two losses being close ones on the road to the Chiefs and Chargers. In both instances, Kevin Stefanski’s team led at halftime. Last week saw them put up 42 points and 532 yards with zero turnovers. They were the first team in NFL history to do that and still lose. That’s little consolation for the Browns, but the good news is that they’ve won six straight times off a SU loss and are 6-0 ATS L6 non-conference games. Arizona has already gone on the road and won three times, twice as an underdog. I can’t see them doing it again. Not with three positive COVID tests among players and staff this week. The one player we know that tested positive is LB Chandler Jones. That’s in addition to the losses of TE Maxx Williams (out for season) and center Rodney Houston to injuries. Cleveland also has its fair share of injuries, but can lean on the league’s best rushing attack and that will be the difference in a game where most of the focus will be about Mayfield vs. Murray. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Vikings -1 v. Panthers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 44 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (1:00 ET): With the exception of an impressive 30-17 win they had up in Seattle, the Vikings have played nothing but close games this season. Four times things have been decided by seven points or less and last week one FINALLY went Mike Zimmer’s way as the Vikes got a last second FG to beat the Lions 19-17. It really should have never come to that as they led by 10 with less than three minutes remaining, only to give up a FG, then a touchdown after an inexcusable fumble. I happen to agree with the line move here and will play Minnesota as a road favorite. Carolina has been a bit exposed following a 3-0 SU/ATS start. They’ve dropped B2B games, failing to cover the number both times. I faded them last week when they hosted Philadelphia and that proved to be the correct decision as the Eagles came from behind to win 21-18. Like Minnesota, there was a late miscue you can point to (blocked punt), but unlike the Vikings, the Panthers could not overcome it. I remain unsold on Sam Darnold, who has thrown five interceptions and been sacked eight times in the team’s two losses. Despite a 2-3 SU record, the Vikings have a positive point differential, which is something definitely worth mentioning. I know that Minnesota has had its fair share of struggles at the “pay window” going back to last year, but that’s something that’s going to improve moving forward. Carolina may have solid defensive numbers thus far, but they really haven’t faced many good QB’s. The one time they did, they gave up 36 points to Dak Prescott and Dallas. Kirk Cousins has the “goods” to make them pay here and I don’t think the return of Christian McCaffery is enough to stop the Panthers from losing their third straight game. 8* Minnesota |
|||||||
10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7.5 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): The road team has gone 5-0 ATS on Thursday Night Football this season, but only 2-3 straight up. Obviously, most are anticipating that SU record will be “squared away” after tonight as the Bucs visit the Eagles. But the Super Bowl Champs best be careful here as Philly is coming off a SU win (I had ‘em!) last week in Carolina. As I said in my analysis for that game, the Eagles have actually outgained their opponents - on a per play and per game basis - despite the losing record. Certainly, the score of last week’s Bucs game will only further attract more bettors to them. They won 45-17 with Tom Brady throwing for 400+ yards and five touchdowns. But they were facing a terrible Miami team, who I have rated dead last in the league in my own personal power ratings. Two of Tampa's other three victories this season have been by just two points. They’ve not fared well on TNF previously, going just 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS. That includes the season opener vs. Dallas where they won 31-29, but did not cover as nine-point chalk. The Eagles are 0-2 SU/ATS at home thus far, so you know they’re going to be highly motivated to win in front of their fans for the first time under HC Nick Sirianni. It’s not often you get them in this price range, but they are 8-1 ATS the L9 times they’ve been a dog of 7.5 or more points with five outright wins. QB Hurts did not play great last week against a good Carolina defense, but did throw for a career-high 387 yards in his last home game. Here he'll be facing a banged-up Bucs secondary that has given up the most passing yardage in the league. 10* Philadelphia |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 102 h 33 m | Show |
9* Buffalo (8:20 ET): The Bills have a serious claim to being the league’s top team right now as they have a +90 point differential, which is #1 overall and the second best point differential through four games in franchise history (only the ‘92 Super Bowl team was better). They are just the second team since the merger to post two shutout victories by at least 30 points (the great ‘91 Washington team is the other) in the first four weeks of the season. Yes, they’ve beaten up on some bad teams. But this week, they have the chance to prove themselves on a national stage in a big revenge spot. I think they get it done. This is pretty clearly not the same Chiefs team that we saw make the Super Bowl each of the last two years. A defense that’s 31st in scoring and 32nd in yards per play is pretty difficult to overcome, even if you have Patrick Mahomes. Not to mention the entire starting offensive line is different from 2020. The defense allowed 29+ points in every game so far and really struggles in the red zone, which is huge for a Buffalo offense that would have even more points if not for settling for nine field goals in 21 RZ opportunities. Meanwhile, Mahomes faces a stiff test this week going up against the league’s #1 scoring defense, which has allowed just 21 points in the L3 games (all to Washington) & is #1 in yards per play. Truthfully, Kansas City was “playing with fire” last season as they were a ridiculously lucky 9-0 SU in games decided by six points or less. Given that record, it’s not really a surprise to see the team regressing somewhat in 2021. Before last week’s 42-30 win in Philadelphia, the Chiefs had covered just two of its previous 14 games. There’s also a revenge angle in play Sunday night as the Bills lost twice to the Chiefs last season, including in the AFC Championship Game. Revenge is one thing, but the Bills are simply better than the Chiefs right now with an obviously massive edge on the defensive side of the ball. Take the points. 9* Buffalo |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Broncos v. Steelers OVER 39.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 94 h 13 m | Show |
10* Over Broncos/Steelers (1:00 ET): Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater suffered a concussion in last week’s loss to the Ravens and did not practice Wednesday. He is questionable to play here, which means it could be Drew Lock starting in his place. Lock’s career ATS record (11-7) pales in comparison to that of Bridgewater (who is 38-15 ATS as a starter), so that would be a downgrade going up against what is still regarded as a very good defense in Pittsburgh. But that Steelers’ defense is also pretty banged up at the moment. Denver’s 3-0 SU start came against teams that are currently a combined 2-10 SU (Giants, Jets, Jags). They were somewhat exposed in last week’s 23-7 loss to the Ravens. I find it interesting though that the Broncos, who were the only team in the league not to be favored in a single game last season, could end up being favorites for a fifth consecutive week here. They are in a much better position than Pittsburgh, who has lost three in a row after opening the season with an upset win in Buffalo that now feels like a distant memory. The Steelers look like they could be headed for their 1st losing season under Mike Tomlin. There are only four teams in the league that are 4-0 Under and these are two of them. Given that, the injuries and “iffy” QB situations on both sides (Big Ben has been BAD), I understand why this O/U is so low. But I feel it’s too low. You’re just not going to see many NFL totals of 40.0 or lower this season. Two of the Steelers’ last three games would have exceeded this total. Look for this game to sneak Over the total, somehow, someway. Both teams have key injuries in the secondary. 10* Over Broncos/Steelers |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Eagles +3 v. Panthers | Top | 21-18 | Win | 100 | 47 h 18 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Since opening the season with an impressive 32-6 beatdown of Atlanta, the Eagles have yet to win again. They’ll arrive in Carolina Sunday on a three-game losing streak - both SU and ATS. The last two losses saw them matched up against a couple of the league’s premier teams, Dallas and Kansas City. The Jalen Hurts led offense put up lots of yards and a decent amount of points in those games, but it obviously wasn’t enough either time. Here, they’ll be matched up with a banged up Panthers team that’s coming off its first loss of 2021. I smell “upset,” so take the points. I’d say that the biggest issue in Philly right now is a defense that’s allowed the second most rush yards in the league. But that unit catches a break here as Panther starting Guard Pat Elflien is on IR and Tackle Cam Erving is not expected to play. So even if RB Christian McCaffery does return from his own injury, he’ll be operating behind a line that’s down both starters on the left side. I’m still not sold on QB Sam Darnold, even though he led Carolina to a 3-0 start. Remember two of those wins were against the Jets and Texans. Facing those type of teams is why the Panthers entered last week #1 in total defense. But as we saw they got shredded by Dallas (433 yds allowed) in a 36-28 loss. Clearly, the Eagles are not as good or potent offensively as the Cowboys are. But Hurts is coming off B2B games with 300 yards passing, including a career-high 387 last week. The team has outgained its opponents - on a per game and per play basis - despite the 1-3 SU start. Last week, they had to face the Chiefs on a short week and still it was a one possession game in the 4Q. Carolina’s is banged up on BOTH sides of the ball as they just put two defensive starters on IR and LB Shaq Thompson has been ruled out as well. 10* Philadelphia |
|||||||
10-10-21 | Saints -2 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
9* New Orleans (1:00 ET): For most of last week, it appeared as if the Saints were headed for a victory and Washington was headed for a loss. But instead, the opposite happened. New Orleans shockingly blew a double digit 4Q lead at home and lost in OT to the Giants, 27-21. Meanwhile, Washington came from behind to defeat Atlanta 34-30. What I’m going to do here is use those surprising results to my advantage and take what I feel is an undervalued Saints team on the road this week. Lay the points. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in these two teams’ games this season. That includes 4-0 in Saints’ games. New Orleans has definitely taken an unconventional path to 2-2 SU as they’ve won both times they were dogs (Green Bay, New England) but lost outright both times as favorites (Carolina, Giants). Washington has been favored three times this year, but the only time they covered in that role was last week in Atlanta. The one time they were an underdog, they got blown out 43-21 in Buffalo. Washington’s two wins have been by five total points and came against the Falcons and Giants, two teams that are a combined 2-6 SU right now. They’ve got a backup QB (Taylor Heinicke) under center and the defense isn’t playing anywhere near the level it did last year. Making matters worse, two defensive starters were lost for the season last week. There are also key injuries on offense. The Saints’ offense has obviously fallen off somewhat without Drew Brees, but the defense remains elite, allowing just 66 YPG rushing on 3.1 YPC. I can’t see Heinicke single-handedly leading a Washington upset here. The Saints are a fantastic 30-12 ATS L42 road games. 9* New Orleans |
|||||||
10-07-21 | Rams -130 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 25 m | Show |
10* LA Rams Money Line (8:20 ET): I think that the Seahawks should feel extremely fortunate to have defeated the 49ers on Sunday. Their first five drives of the game were all “three and outs” and resulted in -12 net yards. They were outgained nearly 2:1 in total yardage for the game (457-234) and 6.3 to 4.3 in terms of yards per play. It was a massive break that 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo got injured, leaving a rookie (Trey Lance) to have to come in and play extended minutes for the first time. I don’t think Seattle, who could easily be 1-3 SU right now, will be as fortunate this week. After beating the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers in Week 3, the Rams suffered a letdown and thus their 1st loss of the season on Sunday. They simply had no answers for Kyler Murray and Arizona in a pretty shocking 37-20 home loss. Yards gained per play was basically even and the Rams’ offense did go over 400 yards. But two turnovers, one deep in their own territory, led to Cardinals’ touchdowns. There was also a missed FG and turnover on downs. The fumble at their own 21-yard line (occurred in the 2Q) was what really swung the game as LA fell behind by double digits and never really recovered. I’ve still got the Rams rated as the better team here and believe they’ll come in and pick up a big division road win. Don’t let last week cloud the fact that QB Matt Stafford has looked GREAT thus far in Sean McVay’s offense. The Seattle defense is giving up 444.5 YPG, which is the most in the league. Over the L2 years, we’ve seen Russell Wilson bail out this lousy Seahawks defense, but the NFC West is so tough now. The Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS coming off a division loss while the Seahawks are just 2-5 ATS off a division win. 10* LA Rams (Money Line) |
|||||||
10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -160 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers Money Line (8:15 ET): The underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS in these teams’ games this season. The Raiders’ season started with B2B upsets over the Ravens and Steelers. Then they won last week as favorites, but did not cover, in their second OT win of the season. The Chargers have also already pulled two upsets, winning at Washington 20-16 (+1.5) and at Kansas City 30-24 (+7). In between, they lost outright to the Cowboys 20-17 as three-point home favorites. I just can’t see Las Vegas pulling its third upset in four weeks. Not when they are just the fourth team to win two OT games in the first three weeks and only the second to start 3-0 when doing so. Prior to pulling out the OT win against Miami last week, the Silver and Black had been just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS when coming off B2B SU wins. Personally, I was not that high on the Raiders coming into the year. So it’s definitely a surprise to see them at 3-0 SU. The Chargers are a team I did say would improve in 2021 and my main rationale was “Justin Herbert.” The second year QB threw four TD passes in last week’s upset of the Chiefs. While LA was outgained in that game and the beneficiary of four KC turnovers, I don’t necessarily believe it was a “lucky” win. The Raiders’ defense has yet to be really tested in the passing game this year. I trust the Chargers’ ability to limit Derek Carr more than I do the Raiders slowing down Herbert. Take the Chargers to win, on the money line. 10* LA Chargers (ML) |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 38 m | Show |
9* New England (8:20 ET): I know that Tampa Bay is a perfect 5-0 ATS off a loss with Tom Brady as their QB, but you are paying a premium because of that trend Sunday night. This isn’t “any other game” either. It’s Brady’s return to New England where he won six Super Bowls alongside HC Bill Belichick. Brady will become the NFL’s all-time passing leader at some point in this game, but I expect things to be closer than the oddsmakers think as Belichick is a remarkable 14-4 ATS as a home dog. Take the points. New England is just 1-2 SU, but outgained the opponents in both losses. Ironically, they were outgained themselves when they defeated the Jets 25-6 two weeks ago. Being +4 in turnovers in that win was huge, but then the “TO bug” bit them LW vs New Orleans as they were -3 in 28-13 game. Brady might be gone, but I still like this Pats’ defense as it is allowing just 318 YPG. The play that put last week’s game out of reach was pick-six, thrown by Brady’s replacement Mac Jones, early in the 2H. So the defense has yet to allow more 21 in any game. Tampa Bay’s defense has some work to do as the secondary is banged up. They’ve allowed at least 25 pts in every game and had few answers for the Rams last week in a 34-24 loss. The Bucs were a little fortunate to win in Week 1 (needed last second FG) and then the 48-25 final against Atlanta was misleading as that was a one-score game in the 4Q (they returned TWO interceptions for TDs). Given the magnitude of this SNF matchup, I believe the Bucs are WAY too “public” of a side. You know Belichick wants to win this game badly. 9* New England |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Steelers +6.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 33 h 43 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): Green Bay’s horrendous Week 1 effort against the Saints now seems like a distant memory as they are 2-1 following primetime victories over the Lions and 49ers. But lest we forget that the Pack trailed Detroit at the half and needed a last second FG to win in San Francisco last Sunday night. This line feels like a classic overreaction to recent results as GB’s 38-3 loss to New Orleans should not be forgotten. They are a public side that should be faded in this spot. I’m taking the points with Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ season does seem to be “heading in reverse” as it’s been the complete opposite of what we’ve seen from the Packers. Pittsburgh started out by going to Buffalo and upsetting the Bills 23-16 as 6.5 point underdogs. But they’ve followed that up with B2B outright losses as favorites, losing 26-17 to Las Vegas and 24-10 to Cincinnati. Both losses were at home. There are many offensive issues right now, but the defense is still good and hopes to get T.J. Watt back this week. This will only be the ninth time that Ben Roethlisberger is an underdog of six or more points. Pittsburgh is 13-3-1 ATS as a dog the L3+ seasons and has the NFL’s best ATS record in the month of October (7-1-1 during that time). The only team that the Packers have held below 28 points was the winless Lions, who scored 17 in the 1H against them. I think the Steelers’ D holds Rodgers below 30 points and will score enough here to cover the spread. 10* Pittsburgh |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Incredibly, the Jets are on the verge of starting 0-4 for a third consecutive season. It has been a rough start to the pro career of QB Zach Wilson, the #2 overall draft choice. The Jets’ offense has scored just 20 points in three games while getting held out of the end zone B2B weeks. They were shutout in Denver LW, 26-0, in what was their worst loss yet. But against all odds, I think they’re going to keep this one closer than expected. Take the points with the home dog. Tennessee usually doesn’t have a problem scoring. The Over is 22-6-1 in Ryan Tannehill starts. But this week Tannehill is going to be without BOTH of his starting receivers, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown. Yes, he can still hand the ball to Derrick Henry. But this Jets’ defense isn’t bad at stopping the run. They allow just 3.8 YPC and know what’s coming here. The most points allowed by the Jets in any game so far was the 26 last week. As for the woeful Jets’ offense, I believe it has a chance to get on track here against a Titans’ defense that gave up 30+ points each of the first two weeks. The Jets are one of only three 0-3 ATS teams (KC, Washington), but considering how well underdogs are doing in 2021 (30-18 ATS with 21 outright wins), they are due to cover. First year HC Robert Saleh really needs a win. I’ll almost always gravitate towards a top 10 defense getting this many points at home. 8* NY Jets |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Bryan Power NFL Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 152 h 17 m | Show |
01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
01-23-22 | Bills +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -113 | 99 h 24 m | Show |
01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 20 m | Show |
01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 51 m | Show |
01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 46.5 | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 5 m | Show |
01-16-22 | 49ers v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -125 | 43 h 21 m | Show |
01-15-22 | Raiders v. Bengals UNDER 48.5 | Top | 19-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
01-09-22 | Chargers -3 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
01-09-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
01-09-22 | 49ers +4.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
01-09-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 48 | Top | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
01-09-22 | Steelers +5 v. Ravens | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 26 m | Show |
01-08-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | Top | 51-26 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos +11 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers UNDER 42 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
01-02-22 | Vikings v. Packers -13 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
01-02-22 | Lions +7.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-51 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
01-02-22 | Texans v. 49ers -12 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
01-02-22 | Broncos v. Chargers OVER 45 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
01-02-22 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +5 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
12-26-21 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
12-26-21 | Jaguars v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
12-26-21 | Jaguars +2 v. Jets | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
12-26-21 | Rams -3 v. Vikings | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
12-26-21 | Bills +1 v. Patriots | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers UNDER 46.5 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans OVER 44 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
12-21-21 | Seahawks v. Rams -6.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
12-20-21 | Raiders v. Browns -3 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
12-19-21 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 45.5 | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
12-19-21 | Packers v. Ravens +7 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars -4.5 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts -2 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
12-12-21 | Bears +12 v. Packers | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
12-12-21 | Giants +10 v. Chargers | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -122 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
12-12-21 | Falcons v. Panthers -2.5 | Top | 29-21 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans +9 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
12-05-21 | Broncos +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 9-22 | Loss | -116 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
12-05-21 | Jaguars v. Rams OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-37 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
12-05-21 | Cardinals v. Bears +7.5 | Top | 33-22 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals -3 | Top | 41-22 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
11-28-21 | Browns +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
11-28-21 | Chargers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
11-28-21 | Titans +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-36 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints +6.5 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 4 m | Show |
11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 47 h 0 m | Show |
11-22-21 | Giants v. Bucs UNDER 50 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
11-21-21 | Cardinals v. Seahawks +2 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 30 m | Show |
11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +1.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 39 h 44 m | Show |
11-21-21 | 49ers v. Jaguars +6.5 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
11-21-21 | Saints v. Eagles -1.5 | Top | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
11-21-21 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 47 | Top | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
11-15-21 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
11-14-21 | Chiefs v. Raiders +2.5 | Top | 41-14 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
11-14-21 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Packers | Top | 0-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
11-14-21 | Seahawks v. Packers OVER 49.5 | Top | 0-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
11-14-21 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 47.5 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
11-07-21 | Packers v. Chiefs OVER 47.5 | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
11-07-21 | Chargers v. Eagles +2 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 58 m | Show |
11-07-21 | Texans +6.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
11-07-21 | Broncos +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -114 | 102 h 48 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints +5.5 | Top | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 76 h 0 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Patriots +6 v. Chargers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 32 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Panthers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 94 h 29 m | Show |
10-31-21 | 49ers v. Bears OVER 39.5 | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 94 h 28 m | Show |
10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -6 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers UNDER 43 | Top | 30-18 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
10-24-21 | Bears v. Bucs OVER 47 | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -106 | 46 h 17 m | Show |
10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 46 | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 53 m | Show |
10-24-21 | Washington Football Team +9 v. Packers | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -123 | 43 h 53 m | Show |
10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns -1.5 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10-18-21 | Bills -5.5 v. Titans | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 37 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Raiders v. Broncos -180 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -180 | 102 h 8 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +4 | Top | 35-29 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 8 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 102 h 48 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Vikings -1 v. Panthers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 44 m | Show |
10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7.5 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 102 h 33 m | Show |
10-10-21 | Broncos v. Steelers OVER 39.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 94 h 13 m | Show |
10-10-21 | Eagles +3 v. Panthers | Top | 21-18 | Win | 100 | 47 h 18 m | Show |
10-10-21 | Saints -2 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
10-07-21 | Rams -130 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 25 m | Show |
10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -160 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 38 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Steelers +6.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 33 h 43 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show |