Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings -8 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 52 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. Fresh off an ugly loss against the rival Packers at Lambeau Field last Sunday this is an ideal ‘get right’ spot for the Vikings back home against the Raiders. Oakland got manhandled by the Chiefs in a game that could have been even more lopsided had Kansas City not taken its foot off the gas last week. Now the Raiders have to travel two time zones east for an early 12 noon local start on Sunday afternoon. There’s not much to get excited about when it comes to the Raiders offense and this is a brutal matchup against what will be a highly-motivated and ultra-talented Vikings defense. Minnesota employs a ‘run-first’ offense to be sure, but that’s fine as RB Dalvin Cook has arguably been the best back in football so far this season. He should have little trouble putting this game away when called upon on Sunday afternoon but before that look for QB Kirk Cousins to bounce back from last week’s no-show in Green Bay with an efficient afternoon under center. Take Minnesota (10*). |
|||||||
09-15-19 | Chiefs -7 v. Raiders | Top | 28-10 | Win | 101 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Chiefs season-opening win in Jacksonville and I won’t hesitate to get involved in their Week 2 game as well, laying the points in this spot. Kansas City looked every bit as dominant offensively as it did a year ago last week against the Jaguars, putting up 40 points without barely breaking a sweat. With that being said, the news wasn’t all good as the Chiefs did lose WR Tyreek Hill to an injury that will cost him at least a month of action. It’s obviously not the end of the world, however, as Kansas City is by no means short on offensive depth. WR Sammy Watkins turned in one of the best performances of Week 1 and now it might just be rookie WR Mecole Hardman’s turn to bust out. Regardless how the Chiefs choose to attack the Raiders defense, I’m confident they’ll have plenty of success, noting that they scored 75 points in two meetings with Oakland last season. The Raiders are coming off a win but I certainly didn’t come away overly impressed as they were essentially handed that game by the Broncos, who simply didn’t show up. QB Derek Carr was efficient in the win but again relied on a slow-paced, conservative offensive gameplan – something that simply isn’t going to translate success against a Chiefs squad that can seemingly score at will. Oakland’s Monday night victory was probably the best thing we could have hoped for as it helps to keep this line in check. The Chiefs have blowout potential most weeks and this one is no exception. Take Kansas City (10*). |
|||||||
09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers OVER 46.5 | Top | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this game sets up as a high-scoring affair at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The Seahawks got more than they bargained for at home against the Bengals last Sunday but did manage to pull out a 21-20 victory. The fact that they allowed only 20 points in that contest was a flattering result based on how their defense actually played on the field. The Steelers defense took a beating at Foxborough last Sunday night, suffering an ugly 33-3 loss. This is a more favorable draw at home facing a Seahawks team traveling from the west coast but I still expect Pittsburgh to give up its share of points in this one. Look for strong performances from QB Russell Wilson and WR Tyler Lockett in as Lockett matches up tremendously well and will be eager to rebound following last Sunday’s no-show (the Bengals defense keyed on him early and never let up). The Steelers were taken completely out of their gameplan last Sunday night as they fell behind early and never recovered. I don’t believe there’s any reason to panic, however, as Pittsburgh boasts a loaded offense that should thrive in this matchup. RB James Conner and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster are two of the game’s best players at their respective positions and JuJu in particular should have no trouble breaking loose against a weak Seattle secondary, which in turn should set things up nicely for Conner in a game where he should see heavy usage. This one has all the makings of a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Carolina at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Most of the trends may be pointing to a relatively low-scoring result between these winless NFC South rivals on Thursday night, but I'm confident we'll see some offensive fireworks and believe the total will prove too low. The Bucs couldn't have looked much worse in last week's season-opening 31-17 loss to the 49ers. That game was pegged as a shootout but it never materialized due in large part to four Tampa Bay turnovers. QB Jameis Winston obviously needs to be better if the Bucs are to have any shot at upsetting the Panthers on Thursday night and I'm confident he will be. Note that after being held to less than 20 points in five straight meetings, Tampa Bay scored 28 and 24 points in two matchups with Carolina last year. Virtually all of the Bucs key pieces on offense are healthy entering this game after WR Mike Evans was slowed by illness last week. TE O.J. Howard and WR Chris Godwin in particular are due for strong bounce-back performances here as Tampa Bay likely finds itself in catch-up mode for most of this game. I fully expect to see the Carolina offense move the football and score at will on the Tampa Bay defense in this one. The Bucs pass rush was completely non-existent against the 49ers last week and while San Francisco wasn't really in great position to take full advantage, Carolina will be. Cam Newton should have little trouble bouncing back from an uneven performance last week with a clean pocket to work with on Thursday night. RB Christian McCaffrey draws an extremely favorable matchup as well, noting that he ran for 185 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries against Tampa in two meetings last year. We saw an absolute snooze-fest last Thursday night but I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -108 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over New England at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This really is the start of a new era for the Pittsburgh Steelers with both RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown join new teams in the offseason. It's a fresh start for the franchise as far as I'm concerned and while they've certainly struggled here in New England over the years, I am confident they can give the Patriots all they can handle to open the 2019 season. With WR JuJu Smith-Schuster being shadowed by Pats CB Stephon Gilmore I expect the Steelers offense to center around RB James Conner in this game. He was used sparingly in the preseason but looked even stronger than he did during his breakout campaign in the absence of Bell last year. The Patriots certainly aren't immune to slow starts (remember they lost their home opener against the Chiefs following their Super Bowl win two years ago). I'm high on the Steelers defense entering this season and look for them to give Tom Brady some headaches on Sunday night. It's worth noting that New England's usually rock solid offensive line has suffered a couple of key losses and will have its work cut out for it trying to keep the Steelers vaunted pass rush at bay. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
|||||||
09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears OVER 46 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. While I can understand the logic behind so-called 'sharp' money coming in on the 'under' in advance of Thursday's season opener in Chicago, I'm confident going the other way and calling for a relatively high-scoring affair between these NFC North rivals. The Packers offense should only improve with QB Aaron Rodgers back healthy and Mike McCarthy and his awful play-calling having been ushered out the door. The Matt LaFleur era is about the get underway and despite the fact that Rodgers didn't see a single preseason snap, I'm confident this offense can get off to a positive start, even against a vaunted Bears defense. Chicago's pass rush and run defense are obviously stellar, but I am confident that Rodgers can be granted enough time in the pocket to improvise if necessary and should have little trouble finding his stellar but perhaps unheralded group of receivers against what should be an overmatched Bears secondary. We know what we're going to get from WR Davante Adams as he's a bonafide star in this league. However, I also look for a big game from Geronimo Allison here as he looks to build off what he and Rodgers built during his rookie campaign. Chicago's offense gets severely overshadowed by its tremendous defense but I actually expect big things from this unit in year two under Matt Nagy. RB David Montgomery is the real deal and will be running behind a terrific offensive line that returns all five starters from a year ago. While Montgomery should be in for a big game (note the Packers inexplicably let their best run stopper DT Mike Daniels go in the offseason), I also think we'll see Mitchell Trubisky take another big step this season after throwing 24 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions last year. The WR duo of Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller doesn't get a lot of hype but they're capable of going off against a beatable Packers secondary. I actually do have a lot of respect for the Packers defense, and in particular their re-tooled pass rush but I'm not sure we'll see them firing on all cylinders right out of the gate and they face a stiff challenge trying to penetrate the aforementioned Bears o-line while also giving the proper amount of attention to the rookie Montgomery. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -119 | 66 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Los Angeles at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We cashed a ticket fading the Saints last week as they escaped with a narrow win over the Eagles. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back New Orleans this time around as they try to defeat the Rams for the second time this season, and advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in nearly a decade. Give the Rams credit as they made the red hot Cowboys look rather punchless in last week's dominant victory at home. But now they face a much tougher challenge as they travel to New Orleans, where the Saints own an incredible home field advantage. We didn't see the Saints bring their 'A' game offensively last week, but their defense more than made up for it with a particularly strong finish, keyed by a critical interception in the game's final minute. While the Saints run defense has been terrific this season, I do think the Rams will make some gains on the ground in this one. With that being said, I believe this game comes down to whether Rams QB Jared Goff can get it done against the Saints secondary, or at least keep pace with the legend on the other side in Drew Brees. I don't see it happening. The Saints offense has another gear that I expect to see it reach this Sunday. Unlike last week when their performance was a little disjointed, I look for New Orleans to come out strong and ultimately pull away for a win and cover to advance to the Super Bowl in Atlanta. Take New Orleans (10*). |
|||||||
01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots UNDER 48 | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 9 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Los Angeles and New England at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We’re dealing with a fairly high total in this game but I’m anticipating a bit of a slugfest. The Chargers offense is somewhat limited with RB Melvin Gordon dealing with a myriad of injuries. Give him credit for sticking it out and turning in a solid performance against the Ravens last week but it’s really difficult to gauge just how much he has left in the tank for this one. I have felt all season that the Patriots possess an underrated defense that is capable of rising to the occasion when it needs to. This is certainly one of those spots where the Pats are going to need a peak performance from their defense as I’m really not sure how much success Tom Brady and company will have on offense against a talented and creative Chargers defense. Los Angeles defensive coordinator Gus Bradley pushed all the right buttons in last week’s dominant performance against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens run-first offense. The Chargers will face a much different challenge here but I do expect them to show up and play well again. Note that the Patriots scored 27 points or less in six of their final nine regular season games and they eclipsed that number against the likes of the Packers, Dolphins and Jets so it’s tough to envision them getting back to that level here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Los Angeles at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with the Ravens in this matchup as they catch the Chargers in a favorable matchup, playing an early afternoon game on the east coast on Sunday. The Ravens have already proven they can beat the Chargers, and they did so on the road no less, back before Christmas. Baltimore simply isn’t the same team it was earlier in the season. Since installing QB Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback, the Ravens have gone run-heavy, in fact they’ve been the most run-heavy team in the league, playing keep-away against every opponent they’ve faced. I expect nothing different here, and I like the fact that they’re facing a Chargers squad that seemingly peaked too early this season, perhaps doing so on that Thursday night win in Kansas City in early December. I have a lot of confidence in the Ravens ability on both sides of the football, with their defense putting together an incredible body of work over the course of the entire season. Their ability to step up and finish off a surging Browns offense on the final season-saving drive last Sunday afternoon was tremendous. Look for them to build off of that performance here. Maybe I would have more confidence in Los Angeles were it not for all of the injuries do-it-all RB Melvin Gordon has dealt with. This is quite simply a beaten up Chargers offense right now, and one I can’t see walking into Baltimore and stealing a win on Sunday. Take Baltimore (10*). |
|||||||
01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans OVER 48 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Indianapolis and Houston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up as a high-scoring playoff showdown between two familiar division opponents. I don’t believe the Texans pass defense can do much to slow a red hot Colts aerial attack led by QB Andrew Luck. Buoyed by a relatively weak schedule, the Houston pass ‘D’ is a ‘paper tiger’ as far as I’m concerned. Look for the Colts to move the football at will through the air in the friendly confines of Reliant Stadium on Saturday afternoon. I do fully expect this to be a competitive affair, and if we project the Colts to move the football and put plenty of points on the board, the Texans are going to have to as well. Houston obviously does have offensive weapons, namely dual-threat QB DeShaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins. The Colts defense has been good, but ultimately got here thanks to facing a rather limited Titans offense led by backup QB Blaine Gabbert last Sunday night. They will be taking a step up in class in this one. We saw a pair of relatively high-scoring affairs between these two teams during the regular season, and I expect nothing different here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-30-18 | Raiders v. Chiefs -13.5 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Raiders Christmas Eve win over the Broncos, and came close to backing Oakland in that game as well. I won't hesitate to switch gears and go against the Raiders as they close out the regular season on the road at Arrowhead on Sunday afternoon, however. The Chiefs have fallen on some tough times down the stretch, dropping three of their last five games heading into this one. Keep in mind, their losses came on the road against the Rams and Seahawks and at home against the Chargers so there was really no shame in any of those defeats. In that mix was also a narrow road win over the Raiders. The relatively close nature of that contest should help keep their guard up on Sunday afternoon. Not as if they need any extra motivation as they're playing for the number one seed in the AFC and could incredibly fall as many as four spots if things don't go their way this week. With the Raiders in a clear letdown spot, and heading into one of the most hostile environments in the NFL, I believe the oddsmakers have this one right. Take Kansas City (10*). |
|||||||
12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Oakland at 8:15 pm et on Monday. You can be sure there will be a lot of bettors looking for action eager to play the 'over' in this, the lone game on the board on Christmas Eve. I can't help but feel the total has been shaded a little high. Note that the Raiders have been involved in a string of relatively high-scoring affairs with the 'over' going 3-1-1 in their last five contests. I'm not sure that's sustainable, however, noting that the Oakland offense is rather punchless. While the Raiders defense has been bad as well, I don't believe the Broncos are well-suited to take advantage. With RB Philip Lindsay struggling over the last couple of games, the Denver offense hasn't been able to gain any headway. An injury to WR Emmanuel Sanders - QB Case Keenum's favorite target - hasn't helped. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series and none of those games have really come all that close to going 'over'. That includes earlier this season, when the Broncos beat the Raiders 20-19 with a field goal in the closing seconds. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-23-18 | Rams v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. There's really nothing to fear when it comes to the Rams offense right now. Injuries have taken their toll with WR Cooper Kupp sidelined and RB Todd Gurley banged-up to say the least. We've seen a severely limited Sean McVay offense in the last couple of games and things don't figure to get much easier as they hit the road to face a Cardinals squad eager to play the spoiler role on Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, the Arizona offense continues to struggle. Now they go up against a highly-motivated Rams defense that has gotten better with the return of CB Aqib Talib. Note that the Rams shut out the Cardinals earlier this season and have allowed just 16 points in taking each of the last three meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-23-18 | Giants v. Colts OVER 47.5 | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an excellent spot to back the 'over' as the Giants aim to bounce back from a truly ugly showing at a rain-soaked Meadowlands last Sunday. Look for RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram to pace the charge for the Giants offense, which has certainly been handicapped by an ineffective Eli Manning this season. The Colts offense didn't have to do a whole lot at home against the Cowboys last week as they cruised to a 23-0 victory. QB Andrew Luck will likely have to dial it up a little more in this one, and should have plenty of success against a very limited Giants defense that has been getting ripped on a regular basis this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-16-18 | Lions v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 13-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Lions travel across the country after beating the Cardinals in Arizona last Sunday. Detroit is still a bottom-feeder as far as I'm concerned, and while the Bills haven't been any better, they do have some upside here at home in December, coming off a narrow loss to the Jets last week. Look for the Buffalo defense to come up big in this one against a punchless Lions offense. We're being asked to lay a short number with the team in the much better spot. Take Buffalo (10*). |
|||||||
12-13-18 | Chargers v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -100 | 47 h 59 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Chiefs on Thursday night as they host the surging Chargers with an AFC West division title potentially hanging in the balance. Kansas City is dealing with some key injuries, including one to star WR Tyreek Hill. It sounds like Hill will play on Thursday night although it remains to be seen how effective he can be on a short week. Regardless, I still expect to see the Chiefs offense roll against a banged up Chargers defense. This is actually a fine spot for the Chiefs ground game, even if they are undermanned in that department. Los Angeles has won three games in a row but didn't make things easy on itself in last week's home game against the lowly Bengals. The fact that the Chargers have allowed 51 points in their last two contests is alarming to be sure as they prepare to face one of the league's best offenses in a hostile environment at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have won nine straight games in this series straight-up and four in a row ATS. Despite sputtering a little bit lately, Kansas City has still outgained each of its last five opponents in terms of total yardage and comes in battle-tested off last week's overtime win over Baltimore. Take Kansas City (10*). |
|||||||
12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I believe we're dealing with a very reasonable total in this matchup, largely due to how inept the Vikings offense looked in last week's ugly 10-point effort in New England. I do expect a strong bounce-back performance here as the Seahawks have certainly been beatable on defense this season, regardless whether they've been at home or on the road. Key here may be the fact that Seattle is giving up nearly six yards per rush in recent weeks, and goes up against a highly-motivated RB in Dalvin Cook. The Vikings are beat up defensively and will go up against a Seahawks offense that seems to be gaining confidence with each passing week. Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett is poised for a big performance against a struggling Vikings defense in the slot. Meanwhile, RB Chris Carson has given Seattle some real consistency in the backfield. Minnesota has been tough against the run but I think the Seahawks will be creative enough with Carson and Rashaad Penny running the football to make some headway. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-09-18 | Jets v. Bills -3.5 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. It’s hard to believe we’re laying points with the Bills at this stage of the season but this is a fine matchup for Buffalo, at home against a listless Jets squad that has a lame duck head coach in Todd Bowles and a makeshift roster due to a number of key injuries. The Jets have lost six games in a row, scoring more than 17 points only once over that stretch, and that came against the Titans last week. It’s worth noting that New York didn’t score an offensive touchdown in that game and was outscored 20-6 in the second half. Expect to see some carry-over from that performance here. The Bills suffered a 21-17 loss at Miami but easily could have won were it not for a Charles Clay drop in the end zone late in the fourth quarter. There were definitely some positives to take away from that game as QB Josh Allen threw for over 200 yards and two touchdowns and also ran for an incredible 135 yards. There are no concerns at all around the Bills defense as they’ve given up just 52 points over their last three games, going 2-1 in the process. We’re being asked to lay a reasonable number here given Buffalo has already defeated New York 41-10, on the road no less, back on November 11th. Take Buffalo (10*). |
|||||||
12-09-18 | Falcons v. Packers -4 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Packers mercifully ended the Mike McCarthy era after last week’s demoralizing home loss to the lowly Cardinals. Now I look for them to play with an edge with QB Aaron Rodgers essentially the play-caller on offense. This is Rodgers’ team for the rest of the season anyway and I expect him to perform well against a very beatable Falcons defense. Atlanta is in free-fall mode right now, having dropped four straight games, scoring fewer than 20 points in all four contests. The Falcons haven’t traveled well this season, going 1-4 SU and ATS on the road, with a number of blowout losses in the mix. Their lone road win came against the Redskins. The Packers may no longer have much to play for, but I’m confident we’ll see them show up for their home faithful at Lambeau on Sunday afternoon. Perhaps last week’s no-show had something to do with suffering back-to-back tight, emotional losses to the Seahawks and Vikings, both on the road, over the previous two weeks. Expect a bounce-back here. Take Green Bay (10*). |
|||||||
12-06-18 | Jaguars v. Titans -4.5 | Top | 9-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Jacksonville at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off wins last Sunday, albeit in much different fashions. The Jaguars completely stymied the Colts in a 6-0 victory while the Titans rallied from a big deficit to get past the Jets 26-22. The Titans have now suffered three straight ATS losses. They haven't lost more than three games in a row ATS since back in 2015-16. Note that they went 3-13 straight-up that season. While this Tennessee squad has had its issues, it's not nearly as bad as that 2015 edition. Prior to last week's win over the Colts, the Jags had gone 0-7 SU and 0-5-2 ATS over their last seven games. QB Cody Kessler made his first start of the season against Indianapolis and completed 18-of-24 passes but for only 150 yards and not a single touchdown. He benefited from playing from ahead in that game. I'm not sure he'll be so fortunate this time around and should the Jags fall behind, I expect to see some mistakes from Kessler against a strong Titans defense. That really should be the difference in this game - the Titans defense. They've been getting torched by the run in recent weeks and the Jags will get RB Leonard Fournette back on Thursday. With that being said, I believe the Titans will benefit from facing a one-dimensional Jags offense. Tennessee's offense has sputtered for much of the campaign and while I'm not sure it will get much going on the ground against an elite Jags run defense, I do believe QB Marcus Mariota can find some success through the air against what I consider to be an overrated Jags pass defense. The Titans have taken three straight meetings ATS in this series. They have the better SU and ATS record this season and they certainly have more to play for on Thursday night. I'll lay the points. Take Tennessee (10*). |
|||||||
12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles -6 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 8:15 pm et on Monday. It wasn't pretty, but the Eagles got just what they needed last week, rallying to defeat the Giants at home to stay alive in the NFC East race. Now they get another slam dunk divisional matchup at home against the undermanned Redskins and I look for them to take full advantage. I really liked what I saw from Philadephia in the second half of last week's game as RB Josh Adams took over and showed everyone that the Eagles can still run the football. That means a lot as QB Carson Wentz simply hasn't lived up to expectations after a tremendous, albeit injury-shortened 2017 season. Wentz has all sorts of weapons at his disposal, and here on Monday night, I believe those weapons will be on display against a middle of the road Redskins defense. Washington's pass defense has gotten worse as the season has gone on and I don't see a big resurgence here. Offensively, the 'Skins are in tough with QB Colt McCoy at the helm. He made a couple of big plays but also made some big mistakes against the Cowboys last week. Even an extended week of practice isn't going to make much of a difference for McCoy, playing behind a shaky, beat up offensive line. This would be a matchup for the 'Skins passing game to take full advantage of with the Eagles secondary missing a number of key cogs, but I'm not sure McCoy will have any time or room to make those big plays. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
|||||||
12-02-18 | 49ers v. Seahawks -10 | Top | 16-43 | Win | 105 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Seattle has worked its way back into playoff contention but needs to take full advantage of this slam dunk matchup on Sunday at home against San Francisco. The 49ers are coming off arguably their worst performance of the season, dropping a 27-9 decision at Tampa Bay. Things certainly won't get any easier here as they travel back across the country to face a highly-motivated Seahawks squad. Seattle's offense has really turned things around after looking punchless earlier in the season. RB Chris Carson has given them a lot of versatility while QB Russell Wilson appears to be healthy again, showing a lot more mobility than we saw in the early stages of the season. WR Tyler Lockett is playing some of the best football of his young career while Doug Baldwin continues to work his way back to full health as well. As long as the Seahawks don't completely overlook the Niners they should roll by two touchdowns plus in this one. Take Seattle (10*). |
|||||||
12-02-18 | Broncos v. Bengals OVER 44.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Denver and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a lower scoring game than most expected last week at home against Pittsburgh but it’s not as if the Steelers didn’t move the football all afternoon long. The common line of thinking here is that the Denver defense will be able to manhandle the Jeff Driskel-led Bengals offense but I’m not so easily convinced. Driskel has actually had quite a bit of experience running the Cincinnati offense in the preseason and attempted 29 passes in relief of Andy Dalton last Sunday against Cleveland. I like the fact that Driskel got his feet wet with a touchdown pass to WR Tyler Boyd last week and expect him to build off of that 17-29, 155 pass yards performance against a beatable Broncos secondary. Driskel is expected to have WR A.J. Green at his disposal for this one as well. The Denver offense has been hit-or-miss for the most part this season but lately we have at least seen some consistency as the Broncos have scored 20, 45, 23, 17, 23 and 24 points over their last six games with the outlier coming in a pre-bye week game against the Texans. Here, the Broncos will go up against an awful Bengals defense that simply isn’t stopping anyone right now. Look for RB Philip Lindsay and WR Emmanuel Sanders to go off in this game. We’re dealing with a relatively low total here, largely due to the unappealing matchup between two 5-6 teams. I believe we will see more offensive fireworks than most anticipate. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-26-18 | Titans +4 v. Texans | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Houston at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Titans here in a division game that I believe will be tightly-contested all the way. Tennessee was in a really tough hangover spot last week, going on the road to face a red hot Colts squad fresh off a stunning blowout victory over the Patriots at home the previous week. Perhaps not surprisingly, the Titans came out flat and ultimately got blown out. Now they face a critical matchup with the Texans, sitting two games back of Houston in the AFC South standings. I'm confident we'll see Mike Vrabel's squad come to play in this one. The Texans are red hot, fresh off seven straight victories. However, they've certainly shown a tendency to get involved in close games, with four of those seven wins coming by a field goal or less. The only two truly lopsided victories over that stretch came against two weak opponents in the Jaguars and Dolphins. In those seven wins, the Texans outgained only one opponent by more than 57 total yards (the Cowboys back on October 7th - a game they won by a field goal in overtime). Keep in mind, the Titans were just a one-point underdog in Indianapolis last week. I'm not convinced they should be catching more than a field goal here. Take Tennessee (10*). |
|||||||
11-25-18 | Raiders v. Ravens -10.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
NFL AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark going against the Raiders last Sunday in Arizona but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, this time backing the Ravens in Baltimore. Oakland is not a good football team. This is not a good matchup. The Raiders defense is slow, plain and simple. Now they have to travel for an early start on the east coast, and face arguably the fastest starting quarterback in the NFL in Lamar Jackson. We saw clear evidence of what the Ravens want to do with Jackson under center, and that’s run the football. At this point of the season, it’s pretty clear that the offense isn’t really that well-suited to the injured Joe Flacco. I do feel that Jackson can continue to give them a bit of a boost. Defensively, the Ravens should be fine against a Raiders offense that showed some signs of life last Sunday but still isn’t very good. Note that in that victory over Arizona, QB Derek Carr threw for less than 200 yards and the Raiders top rusher was Jalen Richard with only 61 yards on the ground. Their top receiver had 50 yards. I could go on but the fact is, the Raiders are a bottom-feeder, and they’re a big underdog for a reason on Sunday in Baltimore. Take Baltimore (10*). |
|||||||
11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers OVER 46 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in Seattle’s win over Green Bay last Thursday night and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson looks as healthy as he has been all season and has now thrown for over 400 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two games. Add in the fact that RB Chris Carson has been productive in four of his last six games and this is an offense with a lot of upside right now. The Panthers benefited from facing a predictable Lions offense last week but still fell by a 20-19 score. There should be a sense of urgency as they return home this week off of back-to-back road losses. I’m still high on the Carolina offense, which has certainly had its share of big games this season. We can count on a big bounce-back effort here against a beatable Seahawks defense that just isn’t what it once was, particularly in the secondary. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-22-18 | Falcons +13.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
NFL NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New Orleans at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Much was made of the Saints 'running up the score' against the defending champion Eagles last Sunday afternoon. I don't believe they'll have the opportunity to do so against the division-rival Falcons on Thursday night, however. Atlanta isn't a player in the NFC South race but is still focused on a possible run to the playoffs. Coming off two of its worst efforts of the season, it won't be hard to get up for this matchup on Thursday night. Keep in mind, going back to the start of the 2014 season, the largest margin of victory in this series was 16 points. That came in a Falcons win as a six-point underdog here in New Orleans four years ago. The next biggest margin of victory was 13 points - another Falcons win here in New Orleans back in September of 2016. Atlanta has actually gone 5-4 SU in the last nine meetings in the series. The underdog has gone 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups between the Falcons and Saints. Atlanta has at the very least gotten healthier on defense in recent weeks. I'm confident we'll see the Falcons do a better job of keeping the seemingly unstoppable Saints offense in check than the Eagles did last Sunday. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 44 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. If we lose this play, so be it. I'm just not sure where the offense is going to come from with the Bears missing their emerging young quarterback and the Lions without their top rusher and one of their top two wide receivers, not to mention their starting right guard. Chicago is playing on an extremely short week after outlasting the Vikings on Sunday night. It has barely practiced in advance of this game and I can't imagine QB Chase Daniel will have the full offensive playbook at his disposal. Of course, the Bears defense is one of the few dominant defenses left in the NFL today. They'll have a major advantage against an undermanned Lions offense that is missing RB Kerryon Johnson, who is coming off one of the best efforts of his young career, and played a major part in the first meeting between these two teams this season. On the other side, we've seen the Lions defense improve, particularly against the run, since adding Snacks Harrison. While their secondary is missing some key cogs, I'm not sure the Bears will be able to take full advantage without Trubisky. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-18-18 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 56 | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 1 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. |
|||||||
11-18-18 | Raiders v. Cardinals -5.5 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -107 | 50 h 45 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. |
|||||||
11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers OVER 44.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We saw the 49ers post an 'under' result in primetime last week, rolling to a blowout victory over the hapless Raiders. Meanwhile, everyone is down on the Giants offense with struggling QB Eli Manning at the helm. With that being said, I believe we're in for a rather entertaining affair on Monday night as the Niners host the Giants in Santa Clara. As long as the G-Men have the likes of RB Saquon Barkley, WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepherd and TE Even Engram, they have a shot. The 49ers defense is banged up and hasn't been good against the pass at the best of times this season so I'm confident we'll see New York find some offensive success. Meanwhile, the San Francisco offense looked rejuvenated with QB Nick Mullens at the helm and I expect to see some carry-over from last week's performance. Like the Giants, the 49ers do still have talent at the skill positions on offense with RB Matt Breida, WR Marquise Goodwin and TE George Kittle. The Giants defense is undermanned, particularly in the secondary which opens the door for another solid performance from Mullens. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Cowboys v. Eagles -7 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Eagles. Note that the straight-up winner has gone 7-1 ATS in the Eagles eight games to date this season. That means the SU winner is now an incredible 84-8 ATS in their last 92 contests by my count. Once again here, I don’t believe the spread will come into play. The Eagles motivational level should be high coming off their bye week as a win would put them a full two games ahead of the Cowboys in the NFC East standings while a loss would pull the two teams even. Dallas is a mess right now, playing on a short week and fresh off a two-touchdown loss at home against the Titans on Monday night, with a lame duck head coach in Jason Garrett to boot. This is a spot where we should see the Eagles offense take flight (no pun intended) with the Cowboys once again forced to go without LB Sean Lee. We’ve seen glimpses of brilliance from the Philadelphia offense this season but nothing sustained. However, here they’ll have another weapon at their disposal in WR Golden Tate and a fully healthy QB Carson Wentz off the bye week. Even without any semblance of a running game, the Eagles aerial attack should be able to do plenty of damage against a downtrodden Cowboys defense that has quite simply been asked to do too much on a regular basis this season. On the flip side, the Eagles defense has been terrific against the run which leaves Dallas in an awfully tough spot. Even with the addition of WR Amari Cooper, the Cowboys offense is still very one-dimensional and I’m confident we’ll see the Eagles force QB Dak Prescott into at least a couple of key mistakes on Sunday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Dolphins v. Packers -10 | Top | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Miami at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Credit the Packers for hanging around for a while against the Patriots in Foxborough last Sunday night but in the end they simply didn’t have the horses to keep up with Tom Brady and company. We should see a completely different story unfold this week, however, as the Pack welcome the Dolphins to Lambeau Field. While the Packers did suffer a number of key injuries on the defensive side of the football last Sunday night, there’s little reason to expect those losses to have much of an impact here as the Dolphins offense is bottom of the barrel. Miami QB Brock Osweiler seems to be getting worse with each passing week which should surprise no one. I prefer to focus on the Packers offense in this one, as they should enjoy a tremendous bounce-back performance. Miami doesn’t generate any sort of pass rush and given a clean pocket, I’m confident we’ll see QB Aaron Rodgers pick apart the Dolphins secondary all afternoon long. While Green Bay has dealt with some key injuries at the wide receiver position this season, it has also seen its young players step up in a big way. WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been the biggest benefactor of increased playing time and should benefit from WR DaVante Adams drawing away ‘Fins CB Xavien Howard’s coverage on Sunday afternoon. Tight ends have been blazing the ‘Fins defense and the Packers have one of the best in the business in Jimmy Graham. While his production has certainly dropped off in recent years, he is still capable of coming up with a big game and I believe we’ll see that here. We’re being asked to lay a fairly steep price with the Packers, but it’s warranted in my opinion. The Dolphins winning record is a mirage as far as I’m concerned. Take Green Bay (10*). |
|||||||
11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 48 h 58 m | Show |
NFL TNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this total sets up on Thursday night. I expected to see a considerably higher number but perhaps the Steelers relatively low-scoring result last Sunday in Baltimore has helped keep it in check. We won with the 'under' in Pittsburgh's victory over the Ravens and also leaned hard to the 'over' in the Panthers rout of the Bucs. This is a favorable spot for both offenses on Thursday night and I believe both teams will come in with the mentality that they'll need to finish drives with touchdowns not field goals in order to secure a victory. This has the makings of a shootout. The Panthers offense was good, but perhaps not great against a weak Bucs defense last Sunday afternoon. RB Christian McCaffrey has taken his game to another level this season, which has had a lot to do with the outstanding run blocking by the Panthers offensive line. QB Cam Newton didn't have a banner game against the Bucs, but still put up solid numbers, and left some points on the field. He should be able to run wild against a Steelers defense that has had a tough time containing mobile quarterbacks this season. I also expect Newton and WR Devin Funchess, not to mention TE Greg Olsen to have a field day against this beatable Steelers secondary. On the flip side, the Panthers defense is not all that imposing and faces a Pittsburgh offense that has been gaining steam lately, and really did a nice job of getting WR Antonio Brown going last Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger has enjoyed plenty of time in the pocket this season with the Steelers o-line doing a tremendous job protecting him, particularly of late. Big Ben should have all the time in the world to pick apart an average Panthers pass defense on Thursday night. The last time these two teams met they got into the 50's - that was back when the Panthers didn't have the explosive ground game they do now. Expect another shootout on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 47 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
NFL AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Baltimore on Sunday afternoon as the Ravens and Steelers do battle for the second time this season. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the first matchup and I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘under’ in this spot. The Steelers just aren’t the same offensive team on the road, particularly in these early start games. The Ravens defense didn’t perform well last week in Carolina but should bounce back against a familiar opponent here at home. This is still one of the best defenses in the league and they’ll certainly be up for this matchup against an explosive Steelers offense. Meanwhile, we’ve seen Pittsburgh’s defense play better lately, essentially dating back to that last meeting with the Ravens on September 30th. Since then, Pittsburgh has allowed 17, 21 and 18 points during its three-game winning streak. The Ravens offense has been good, but certainly not great on a consistent basis, having been held to 27 points or less in seven straight games since exploding for 47 points in their opener against the Bills. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Falcons v. Redskins UNDER 48 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Atlanta and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. We’re dealing with a fairly high total here considering both of these defenses come in playing relatively well. The Falcons are loaded with weapons on offense but they will face a tough test here as the Redskins are arguably playing their best defensive football of the season right now. That has had something to do with the schedule they’ve faced, although their current three-game winning streak did begin with a stellar defensive performance in a 23-17 win over the Panthers. Since getting torched by the Saints in New Orleans on Drew Brees’ record-setting night back on October 8th, they’ve really tightened things up. Getting the Falcons outdoors, away from the ideal conditions inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is a key for Washington. On the other side of the football, the Falcons defense has played better the last couple of games and now comes off the bye week. Atlanta welcomed Grady Jarrett back last time out, and his presence will be key against the Redskins run-first offensive attack. With RB Chris Thompson banged-up, the ‘Skins aren’t able to fully employ their preferred short passing game, which would ordinarily be a massive advantage against a Falcons defense that is willing to concede passes to running backs. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -7.5 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
NFL AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has blowout written all over it as far as I’m concerned. While the Steelers cruise into this home date off their bye week, the Browns are fresh off an overtime loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday. There were concerns all over the place for Cleveland last week. Its offense couldn’t sustain many drives against a hapless Bucs defense while the defense simply couldn’t come up with big plays when it needed to. Now the Browns stay on the road and face what will be a highly-motivated Steelers squad after Pittsburgh dominated most of the way but ultimately had to settle for a tie in Cleveland back in Week 1. We’ve seen glimpses of the Steelers offensive potential this season but I look for it all to come together in this matchup. This is a prime matchup for RB James Conner in particular, who continues to prove his worth starting in place of holdout Le’Veon Bell. There’s really no need to over-analyze this one – it’s a true statement spot for the Steelers. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
|||||||
10-28-18 | Bucs v. Bengals OVER 54.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is one of the highest totals on this week's NFL board but it's warranted in my opinion. Both teams are dealing with cluster injuries on the defensive side of the football. The Bucs were already without Gerald McCoy and Vinny Curry and will now have to go on without Kwon Alexander as well. Meanwhile, the Bucs are missing a number of key cogs, with Vontaze Burfict the latest to go down. Both offenses are poised to take full advantage on Sunday afternoon. We saw 'under' results from both teams last Sunday but that's of little consequence here. The Bucs were able to march the football up and down the field against a better Cleveland defense than the one they'll face here. The Bengals couldn't get out of an early hole against the Chiefs, which completely changed their offensive gameplan. They should be more comfortable back at home against arguably the league's worst defense in the Bucs. This one has all the makings of a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-28-18 | Eagles -3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Jacksonville at 9:30 am et on Sunday. These two teams enter this London matchup with identical 3-4 records but I feel that the Eagles are in a far better place right now and in good position to win this one going away. The Jaguars are reeling. There are questions whether QB Blake Bortles is really the right guy to lead the offense while the defense hasn’t come close to living up to expectations in recent weeks. Was last season a fluke? I’m not ready to make that judgement just yet, but I do feel the Jags find themselves in a really difficult spot traveling across the pond to face the defending Super Bowl champions on Sunday. The Eagles are coming off a truly disappointing fall-from-ahead loss against the Panthers, at home no less. With that being said, QB Carson Wentz is coming off a spectacular performance and we should see some carry-over from that effort here. Since getting WR Alshon Jeffery back the Eagles offense has had a more dynamic look and I believe they’ll give Jacksonville plenty of problems on Sunday. Defensively, the Eagles are down a couple of key cogs but depth is not something they’re lacking on that side of the football. They employ a ‘next man up’ philosophy, much like the Patriots, and draw a favorable matchup in a struggling Jags offense here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 52 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
NFL NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Santa Clara on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Rams last game – a relatively low-scoring win in Denver last week. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. Los Angeles will certainly be taking a step down in class against a 49ers defense that did nothing to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the somewhat limited Packers offense on Monday night. In fact, the Niners have had a tough time slowing down anyone this season. The good news is, the San Francisco offense continues to evolve with C.J. Beathard under center. He certainly looked comfortable running the offense in Green Bay on Monday night and while he faces a slightly tougher test here, the fact is the Rams defense has been below average, and will be playing on the road for the third straight game. With RB Matt Breida, TE George Kittle and WR Marquise Goodwin, the Niners have more than their share of offensive weapons. Meanwhile, the Rams will be without WR Cooper Kupp but shouldn’t miss a beat offensively. QB Jared Goff is coming off a subpar performance last Sunday but should bounce back in a big way here. And of course RB Todd Gurley should run wild as he’s done virtually every week this season. This is a high posted total but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +2.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Denver at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the Cardinals on Thursday night as they host the reeling Broncos. Arizona has certainly shown signs of turning things around over the last couple of weeks. Two games back, the Cardinals posted a 28-18 victory over an improving 49ers squad in San Francisco. Just last Sunday they battled the Vikings hard for 60 minutes, ultimately falling by 10 points, on the road no less. Now they return home and draw a favorable matchup against a Denver squad that can’t get out of its own way right now. The Broncos have lost four straight games, allowing at least 23 points in each of those losses. Meanwhile, their offense continues to lag, having scored 20 points or less in four of their last five contests. QB Case Keenum doesn’t look like the right fit for the offense, with some Broncos faithful calling for Chad Kelly to take over. Outside of WR Emmanuel Sanders I don’t see any of the Broncos having much of an edge against a still-capable Cardinals defense. On the flip side, Arizona RB David Johnson should face little resistance against a Broncos defense that has had no success at all stopping the run in recent weeks. Denver’s once-feared ‘no fly zone’ defense is no more. Chris Harris is essentially the lone bright spot in the Broncos secondary. While the Cardinals by no means have an elite WR corps, especially with veteran Larry Fitzgerald playing at well below 100% healthy, they’re still capable of stretching the field and exposing the Broncos secondary. Look for WR Christian Kirk to continue to build on his solid rapport with rookie QB Josh Rosen, helping pace the offense in what I believe will be a win for the Cardinals. Take Arizona (10*). |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 71 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on New England minus the points over Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This is a rematch of last year’s season-opener – a game the Chiefs won in blowout fashion right here in Foxborough. I expect a much different story to unfold this time around as the Patriots look to gain an ounce of revenge against Andy Reid’s undefeated squad. I like the way this one sets up for the Pats as they come off an extended week following their Thursday night win over the Colts. We’ve seen their offense evolve and improve over the early stages of the season and I’m confident we’ll see their best effort of the campaign to date on Sunday night against a very beatable Chiefs defense. New England welcomed WR Julian Edelman back to the field last week and he should continue to see his role increase as the weeks go on. In this game I actually expect to see the Patriots backfield take center stage with RBs James White and Sony Michel going off against a porous Chiefs defense. We have seen some chinks in the Chiefs offensive armor over the last couple of games, with the Broncos and Jaguars at least laying out somewhat of a blueprint as to how to slow down this juggernaut. This certainly has all the makings of a shootout, but in the end I like the Patriots to make a couple more big plays down the stretch and pull away for a win and cover. Take New England (10*). |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos OVER 51.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -107 | 67 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Even with the Rams injury concerns at the wide receiver position, and the Broncos struggles with Case Keenum under center, I’m still anticipating a shootout in Denver on Sunday afternoon. The Rams offense has a bit of a ‘next man up’ feel so even if Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are unable to go, I still expect to see this unit put plenty of points on the board. Keep in mind, the Rams still have arguably the best running back in football in Todd Gurley, who should have a field day against a vulnerable Broncos run defense on Sunday afternoon. We successfully faded the Broncos on the road against the Jets last Sunday and the fact is, the final numbers put up by their offense actually made things look a lot better than they actually were, putting points on the board in garbage time. Here, I am expecting a strong bounce-back performance from the Denver offense as they draw a favorable matchup against a Rams defense that has had a miserable time slowing down opponents this season. While Los Angeles is certainly thought of as an elite team, deservingly so, it’s largely on the strength of its offense. Defensively, the Rams are missing key cogs and the personnel they have had on the field has not come close to living up to expectations. There’s little reason to expect a sudden turnaround as they stay on the road for the second straight week and face a highly-motivated Broncos offense. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Cardinals v. Vikings -10 | Top | 17-27 | Push | 0 | 64 h 52 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this spot sets up for the Vikings on Sunday afternoon. Minnesota’s offense has taken off since that embarrassing no-show at home against the Bills three weeks ago. Since then we’ve seen the Vikes march up and down the field against both the Rams and Eagles, managing to earn a 1-1 split. Now they return home to host a Cardinals squad that is coming off its first victory of the season, but that came against a weak 49ers squad last Sunday. Here, Arizona will face a much tougher challenge, staying on the road and heading two time zones east for an early start in Minnesota. The Vikings defense hasn’t been great this season but did turn in a fairly strong showing in Philadelphia last week and gets a favorable matchup here. If there’s one thing the Vikes have continued to do well it’s stop the run and that should serve them well as they prepare to face Cards RB David Johnson, who has shown some signs of life since QB Josh Rosen took over the offense. I don’t see how Arizona keeps within arm’s reach for four quarters without a passing game to speak of. Look for another big game from Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins as the Vikes roll at home. Take Minnesota (10*). |
|||||||
10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5 | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Giants last second loss at Carolina last Sunday while missing the mark with the 'over' in the Eagles home loss to the Vikings. I'll stay the course and call for the 'over' again as this matchup has shootout potential on Thursday night. The Eagles offense didn't look particularly sharp last Sunday against Minnesota but it may have been a case of the wrong place at the wrong time as the Vikes were bent on revenge after falling in last year's NFC Championship Game and were coming off an extended week following a tough Thursday night loss to the Rams in Los Angeles, in which their defense got lit up. Here the Eagles will draw a Giants defense that hasn't had any answers for opposing offenses this season due to injuries and otherwise. The G-Men will get Olivier Vernon back this week but all indications are that he'll be on a limited snap count. In the last eight meetings in this series, the Giants have allowed 27, 34, 27, 35, 23, 24, 27 and 34 points. As for the Giants offense, we've seen them turning things around lately, scoring at least 27 points in two of their last three games. The Eagles defense is injury-ravaged and has had its hands full with Eli Manning and co. at the best of times in recent years. I've been one of Manning's biggest critics but there's no denying we saw plenty of positives in last week's shootout loss to the Panthers. It does seem as if the G-Men are finally figuring out ways to move the football with all of that star power on offense. With Rodney McLeod sidelined and now his replacement Corey Graham on the shelf as well, Philadelphia is in a tough spot trying to defend the pass. Regardless who falls behind in this game there's certainly 'bomb away' potential against these defenses. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5 | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at the Superdome on Monday night. The Redskins have given up yardage in big chunks on the ground this season but that's by design as they're willing to give up rushing yards and focus on stopping the pass. That should actually serve them well against the explosive Saints offense on Monday night. Note that New Orleans will get RB Mark Ingram back from suspension on Monday which could certainly lead to the Saints being a little more run-oriented. The Saints defense has finally shown some signs of life after a miserable start to the season. They were tough on the Giants last week, on the road no less, and keep in mind, New York scored 30+ points yesterday in Carolina. Here, the Saints draw a manageable matchup as the Redskins offense isn't going to scare anyone. QB Alex Smith has yet to get completely in sync with the offense and Washington has proven rather one-dimensional over its last couple of games (after Adrian Peterson turned back the clock in Week 1 against Arizona). I simply feel that we'll see plenty of long, clock-eating drives in this contest. I'm not convinced that the lofty total is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Rams -7 v. Seahawks | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 57 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This has all the makings of a beatdown in favor of the undefeated Rams on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. First of all, Los Angeles has had an extra few days to prepare for this matchup following last week's impressive home win over the Vikings. You can be sure that head coach Sean McVay has some tricks up his sleeve as he'll see this as a big challenge playing in a hostile environment in Seattle and matching wits with a Super Bowl-winning head coach in Pete Carroll. The case can be made that QB Jared Goff has been the league's best quarterback so far this season which is really saying something given how well we've seen some of the veterans and young arms alike perform in the early going. There's little reason to expect any regression from Goff and the Rams offense here as they face a Seahawks defense that certainly isn't what it once was, and just lost safety Earl Thomas to a broken leg. The question is whether the Rams defense can hold up well enough against a highly-motivated Seahawks offense that has shown some improvement and welcomed back WR Doug Baldwin last week. My answer to that is, I'm not sure it matters how well the Seahawks offense performs as the Rams should do enough damage themselves to ultimately stretch out the margin in this one. Keep in mind, Seattle QB Russell Wilson has been admirable in his efforts but hasn't looked like the same dual-threat quarterback and continues to perform behind a leaky offensive line. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 46 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 45 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Philadelphia at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings loss to the Rams last Thursday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Entering the season most believed Minnesota's defense would be one of the best in the league but that simply hasn't been the case, due to injuries and otherwise. The Rams absolutely exposed the Vikings defense (if it hadn't been already) last week and I expect to see plenty of carry-over from that miserable performance against the Eagles this Sunday. Philadelphia continues to work QB Carson Wentz back into the fold and we saw considerable progression from him last week against the Titans. That was despite facing a Tennessee defense that has applied a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Despite their reputation, I don't believe the Vikes will have much success putting Wentz under duress here. I'm anticipating a big game from Eagles WRs Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery in particular as they should have little trouble finding open field against what has become a porous Minnesota secondary. This is obviously a bit of a desperation spot for the Vikings who are quickly seeing their season crumble before them. With that in mind, we can expect them to throw everything they have at the Eagles, and that has to start with their offense, which is certainly capable of operating at a high level, just as we saw last Thursday night against the Rams. QB Kirk Cousins should be able to find success bombing away against an Eagles pass defense that continues to struggle without corner Rodney McLeod. The Eagles have been much tougher against the run but the Vikes haven't shown much interest in running the football anyway and there's a good chance they'll be playing from behind for much of the game on Sunday, leading to a lot more looks for stud WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 52.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 33 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I've seen enough evolution from the Raiders offense to warrant a play on the 'over' as they make the short trip to Los Angeles to face the Chargers on Sunday afternoon. Oakland certainly didn't shy away from a shootout at home against the Browns last week, moving the football at will against an up-and-coming Cleveland defines. QB Derek Carr has turned things around over the last couple of weeks following a miserable start to the season. He certainly appears to be getting comfortable with veteran WR Jordy Nelson in the slot and last week we saw flashes of big play ability on a couple of ultimately failed hook-ups with WR Martavis Bryant. I like the matchups that Bryant and WR Amari Cooper draw against the Chargers secondary this week. Los Angeles will continue to struggle to keep opposing offenses at bay as long as LB Joey Bosa is sidelined and now will have to press on without another one of their top defenders in LB Kyzir White as well. Meanwhile, there's little reason to believe the Raiders defense will have any answers for the Chargers versatile offense. QB Philip Rivers likely won't have to worry about any sort of pressure on Sunday afternoon as no team has recorded fewer sacks than the Raiders this season. Look for Rivers to have a field day slinging the ball all over the field to his talented group of wide receivers. RB Melvin Gordon doesn't get enough credit for the work he does - perhaps overshadowed by another elite RB in the same city in Todd Gurley. Oakland checks in allowing almost six yards per rush and should also struggle to cover Gordon in the passing game. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Bengals v. Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cincinnati and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Falcons wild overtime loss to the Saints last Sunday and I’ll go right back to the well with the same play here. The Bengals aren’t known for their offense, but they’ve performed pretty well in the early going this season and even if WR A.J. Green can’t go due to his groin injury this week, I still believe they’ll be able to put plenty of points on the board, due in large part to the mess of injuries the Falcons are dealing with on the defensive side of the football. Atlanta got torched by the Saints offense last week and will be in tough trying to slow down a versatile Bengals offense as well. The absence of Deion Jones and Keanu Neal is obviously key, but Takk McKinley’s injury can’t be understated either. The good news for the Falcons is that they have an offense capable of thriving in a shootout. Everyone was quick to criticize the Falcons red zone offense following their opening game in Philadelphia but since then, all they’ve done is go 8-for-8 ending drives with touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. With the Bengals still missing LB Vontaze Burfict, Falcons RB Tevin Coleman should have a field day on Sunday. And the Falcons have mismatches all over the field at wide receiver, especially with the emergence of rookie Calvin Ridley. Expect to see he and Julio Jones go off in this matchup with a below average Bengals pass defense. Perfect conditions inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium only add to the strength of this play. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 48 h 28 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Bears on Sunday afternoon. We cashed a ticket fading the Bucs in their ‘closer than the final score indicated’ loss to the Steelers on Monday night and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well here. We certainly saw some regression from the Bucs offense in that matchup with a terrible Steelers pass defense. The magic seemed to run out for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and I really believe this will be his last start for Tampa Bay for a while with the Bucs heading into their bye week after this and Jameis Winston ready to return to the field. While I’m not a big fan of the Bears offense with Mitchell Trubisky at the helm right now, I’m not sure it really matters here as Chicago should have little trouble moving the football against a weak Bucs defense. The Bears have enough talent around Trubisky, namely RB Jordan Howard and WR Allen Robinson, to put up some points on Sunday afternoon. This is a well-coached football team that is still slowly learning a new offense. There will come a week where we see a breakout performance, and this just might be it. I like the fact that the Bears defense should be able to completely take away the Bucs already non-existent ground game and force Fitzpatrick into more mistakes. Take Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Patriots stunning blowout loss in Detroit last Sunday night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Pats always seem to bounce back from bad games, let along back-to-back bad games, as is the case here. The fact they're returning home for the first time since Week 1 certainly helps their cause. Note that New England always seems to score 30+ points against the Dolphins and while Miami has held up well defensively in the early going this season, it's worth noting it has faced the likes of Tennessee, New York (Jets) and Oakland. This will be its toughest test to date by far. Xavien Howard is a stud in the secondary for the Fins but he can't cover everyone. Look for Tom Brady to spread the football around in this contest. On the flip side, the Patriots defense has been getting gashed against the run and will be vulnerable against Miami's underrated RB Kenyon Drake. The Pats simply don't have the personnel to win games with defense right now and even against a middle of the road Dolphins offense, I don't expect to see them turn in a standout performance. Miami has enough playmakers around QB Ryan Tannehill to put some points on the board in this one. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams OVER 49 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Los Angeles on Thursday night. We won with the ‘over’ in the Rams victory over the Chargers last Sunday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. While the Vikings have seen the ‘under’ cash in two of their first three games this season, the fact is, all three of those contests just as easily could and probably should have gone ‘over’ the number. A lot of points were left on the field in their opener against the 49ers as San Francisco in particular had a tough time finishing drives – keep in mind that was against a Vikings defense that was virtually at full strength, and at home no less. The Vikes followed that up with a wild 29-29 tie in Green Bay before returning home in a massive sandwich spot against the lowly Bills, shockingly dropping that game in blowout fashion. There’s no question Minnesota was caught looking past Buffalo and wasn’t sharp on either side of the football. The Vikes know they’ll need to be a lot better, particularly on offense, in order to hang with the red hot Rams on Thursday night. Los Angeles has gotten better offensively with each passing game this season. There really was no stopping Sean McVay’s offense last Sunday as the Rams moved the football at will against a banged-up Chargers defense. Now they face another quality defensive opponent, but one that is also missing a number of key cogs. I look for Rams WR Cooper Kupp in particular to have a big game in this spot after being generally held in check by the Chargers last week. He owns a considerable advantage against Vikings slot corner Mackensie Alexander in this one. The Vikings will be without their best pass rusher in Everson Griffen this week and are banged-up in the secondary as well. For a team that hasn’t performed particularly well defensively on the road, that spells major trouble against the Rams outstanding offense. I do believe the Vikes can hang in there on the strength of their offense, however, and they certainly have ‘bomb away’ potential should they fall behind. Dalvin Cook may be sidelined again on Thursday, but it should be the Minnesota passing game that exploits a couple of mismatches on the perimeter with Rams' corners Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib sidelined. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions OVER 53.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between New England and Detroit at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This has all the makings of a high-scoring shootout on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots defense isn’t an elite group to begin with and things have gotten worse on the injury front with both Trey Flowers and Patrick Chung expected to miss this week’s game. While the Lions are off to a miserable 0-2 start, they have continued to bomb away with Matt Stafford throwing for well over 600 yards and four touchdowns (to go along with four interceptions). There’s a good chance the Lions will be playing from behind again on Sunday night, which opens the door for another aerial assault from Stafford to his fantastic trio of wide receivers in Tate, Jones and Golladay. I don’t think Lions fans should have any false hope that their team can slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense here. Detroit’s two best defensive players, Ezekiel Ansah and Darius Slay are both expected to miss this game. That leaves the Lions defense completely exposed in this particular matchup. Brady should have little trouble carving up this Detroit secondary in particular, and will have no shortage of motivation after suffering that ugly loss in Jacksonville last Sunday. Expect to see both offenses keep their foot on the gas pedal for four quarters in ideal conditions indoors at Ford Field. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Raiders v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Raiders are in a truly tough situation here. After starting the season on the west coast with a home game against the Rams, they traveled to the thin air of Denver last week and now have to trek across the rest of the country for an early start in Miami on Sunday afternoon. The Dolphins have generally had a solid home field advantage early in the season and already 1-0 SU and ATS at home here in 2018. I like the Dolphins chances of improving to a somewhat improbable 3-0 this week. We’ve seen this story unfold before. Remember, back in 2016 the Dolphins enjoyed plenty of success with the Adam Gase-Ryan Tannehill combo. When asked to be more or less a game manager, Tannehill has proven that he can succeed. In fact, the Fins are 9-1 in Tannehill’s last 10 starts. The Raiders couldn’t have played much better than they did last Sunday in Denver but they still fell short in the end. I can’t see them getting back to that level of effort and execution in their second straight road contest this Sunday. Their offense did show some positive signs against the Broncos, but let’s face it, the Denver defense isn’t what it once was, especially against the pass. I actually feel the Fins can hold up much better than the Broncos did against Derek Carr and the Raiders passing game. On the other side of the football, the Raiders don’t have the personnel in place to get after opposing quarterbacks which sets up nicely for Tannehill. Look for him to have a field day against this Oakland defense, and for the overlooked Miami ground attack to ultimately salt away another victory. Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Miami and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in the Jets season-opening win in Detroit (we weren’t close with that play) but won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as New York returns home to host the Dolphins this week. Everyone is singing Sam Darnold’s praises but he will face a much tougher test here than he did against the Lions defense, which was an absolute joke on Monday night. Not only that but Darnold will be working on a short week of preparation following the Monday nighter. Expect another solid but perhaps not spectacular game from the rookie QB. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill did a nice job of managing the game against the Titans last Sunday and will have to play smart again this week as he faces an opportunistic Jets defense. Don’t count on Tannehill airing it out early and often in this contest. I would count on Miami serving the Jets with a heavy dose of their RB tandem in Kenyon Drake and Frank Gore in an effort to control time of possession. This total is actually a couple of points higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4.5 | Top | 42-37 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
NFL AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Steelers avoided complete embarrassment thanks to a blocked field goal at the end of overtime in Cleveland last Sunday but there’s no question it was an ugly start to the campaign for the Black and Gold. I have no doubt that we’ll see a much sharper effort from the Steelers, on offense in particular, as they host the Chiefs on Sunday. We won with Kansas City last week in Los Angeles but we were fortunate to cash that ticket as the Chargers were able to march the ball up and down the field against what certainly appeared to be a weak Chiefs defense. I’m not sure we’ll see Kansas City right the ship on that side of the football traveling across the country to face the Steelers in their second straight road game to open the season. You have to think heading into this two-game jaunt that the Chiefs would have been more than pleased to earn a 1-1 split. While they’d undoubtedly like to earn the 2-0 sweep now that they have the first one in their back pocket, I simply feel that the Steelers will be the hungrier squad on Sunday afternoon. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
|||||||
09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions UNDER 45 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in the first half of Monday's NFL double-header in Detroit. The Jets won their preseason opener by a 17-0 score over Atlanta but followed it up with three straight losses, scoring a grand total of just 38 points in the process. Sam Darnold takes over at quarterback but I certainly don't expect the Jets to throw him right into the fire in his first career road start, on Monday Night Football no less. Look for a heavy dose of the Jets running game in this one as they count on a combination of that and solid defensive play to shoot for an opening week victory. The Lions put up 33 points in their 'dress rehearsal' game in Week 3 of the preseason but that had little to do with the Detroit starters, with QB Matt Stafford completing just 9-of-18 passes. I'm not all that high on this Lions offense, even with the addition of veteran RB LaGarrette Blount, who should alleviate some of their concerns on the ground. I actually believe it will be the Detroit defense that shines in this contest. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-09-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Chiefs on Sunday as they open the 2018 season with an AFC West showdown with the Chargers. Los Angeles is receiving plenty of hype entering the new season with some even picking it to reach the Super Bowl. I'm not nearly as high on the Chargers. The Chiefs actually haven't lost a game to the rival Chargers since way back in 2013. I don't believe this is the Kansas City team to end that streak. I see the Chiefs as a team with a lot of upside entering the new season. QB Pat Mahomes may be a first-year starter but he certainly played like a veteran in the preseason and gained a lot of knowledge working behind a true pro in Alex Smith last year. Some believe that RB Kareem Hunt was a one-year wonder, but I'm confident that he'll give the Chiefs a lot out of the backfield once again this season. Meanwhile, WR Tyreek Hill has been getting better with each passing season and certainly looked in sync with Mahomes in the preseason. Defensively, the Chiefs do have some question marks, and they'll obviously be facing a tough challenge in the Chargers offense on Sunday, but I'm confident we'll see them play well. Take Kansas City (10*). |
|||||||
09-09-18 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 51 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last year as the Patriots came back to win by a 36-33 score. That has most bettors anticipating another shootout on Sunday afternoon, but I'm not so easily convinced. The Texans were certainly a better defensive team than they showed in that game against the Patriots last season. I believe they have the potential to be even better on that side of the football this year. Meanwhile, the Patriots offense is missing a number of key cogs from a year ago and while they should cruise to another AFC East title, I'm not sure they're going to be the offensive juggernaut we've seen in years' past. Defensively, the Pats were shredded by Texans QB DeShaun Watson in what was really his 'coming out party' a year ago. Expect New England to do a better job of containing Watson this time around. I don't anticipate either team generating much on the ground in this one, and while that can sometimes mean we're in for an air show, I do have confidence in both secondaries to hold up well here in Week 1. Note that the closing total in this matchup last year was just 44.5 points at most books. We're dealing with a much higher number this time around - I'm not sure it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles -2 | Top | 12-18 | Win | 100 | 48 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Atlanta at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The defending Super Bowl champions have gone an impressive 11-3 SU since the NFL went to the Thursday night kickoff in the early-2000's. Of course, we saw the defending champion Patriots fall to the Chiefs last year, but I don't expect history to repeat itself with the Eagles here. It's certainly worth noting that the SU winner has gone an incredible 77-7 ATS in the Eagles last 84 games overall. We're dealing with a very short pointspread here, largely due to Philadelphia's numerous injury concerns - most notably absent from this game will be QB Carson Wentz. Nick Foles didn't look great in the preseason and also suffered an injury of his own but has put in a good week of practice with the Eagles first unit and I'm confident he'll hold his own against the Falcons on Thursday night. The Falcons are a solid team without question, but I don't believe they're the Super Bowl contender that most make them out to be. RB Devonta Freeman wilted at times over the course of last season while WR Julio Jones isn't the unstoppable force he once was. The addition or rookie WR Calvin Ridley will help, but I don't expect him to make all that much of an impact in this contest. The Eagles haven't lost a meaningful game at home since December 11, 2016. Look for them to make the key plays down the stretch in this one to secure a big opening night victory. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
|||||||
01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -7 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -118 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
NFL Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on New England minus the points over Jacksonville at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with the Patriots on Sunday as they host the upstart Jaguars with the AFC Championship on the line. The Jags are getting plenty of support following last week’s impressive wire-to-wire victory over the Steelers. That performance made it easy to forget their ugly 10-3 home win over Buffalo on Wild Card weekend. While there’s a lot to like about the Jags, I believe their run comes to an end here. The Patriots weren’t really tested in last week’s rout of the Titans. This is a team that certainly didn’t need any more extra motivation but it got just that when the story came out regarding dissension in the ranks between Brady, Bellichick and Kraft. While the Jags have the type of defense that should give the Pats some headaches, I simply feel that New England has too many weapons to contend with for four quarters. And on the other side of the football, you can count on New England to come up with a gameplan to take away Jacksonville’s motor, RB Leonard Fournette, and force QB Blake Bortles to beat them. That’s not a story that ends well as far as I’m concerned. As nice as it would be to see some new blood representing the AFC in the Super Bowl, I don’t see it this year. Take New England (10*). |
|||||||
01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Jacksonville and New England at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘under’ on Sunday afternoon in Foxborough. Both of these teams lit up the scoreboard in their respective Divisional Round games last weekend. The Jaguars were buoyed by a number of Steelers turnovers and took advantage of excellent field position throughout the game, an advantage they’re not likely to enjoy against the Pats this Sunday. Meanwhile, New England faced no resistance against a middle of the road Titans defense last Saturday night. Jacksonville’s defense is undoubtedly on another level by comparison. That’s not to say they’ll shut down the Pats vaunted offense by any means, but we don’t really need them to with the total set where it is. While the New England offense gets most of the credit, we’ve seen the defense come up big time and time again and I expect no different here as they take away Jacksonville’s best offensive weapon, RB Leonard Fournette, and force QB Blake Bortles into obvious passing situations. I believe there’s a good chance we see the winning side score in the 24-27 point range here, which puts us in good position to cash our ticket. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-14-18 | Saints +5 v. Vikings | Top | 24-29 | Push | 0 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Minnesota at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. We cashed our Wild Card Game of the Year with the Panthers plus the points over the Saints last Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back New Orleans as it hits the road to face the Vikings this week. The Vikings are obviously highly-motivated as they try to become the first team to ever appear in a Super Bowl on their home field. I'm not convinced they get there, however, and believe they'll be in for a serious battle against the Saints on Sunday. QB Case Keenum had a tremendous regular season but the playoffs are a completely different animal. The Saints opportunistic defense is brimming with confidence right now and will undoubtedly throw everything it has at Keenum. While I do have a lot of respect for the Vikings on both sides of the football, I simply feel that they're overvalued, due in large part to their double-digit win over the Saints way back in Week 1. Take New Orleans (10*). |
|||||||
01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers OVER 41 | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' at Heinz Field on Sunday afternoon. The Jags certainly didn't put their best foot forward offensively against the Bills last Sunday, QB Blake Bortles in particular. However, they still managed to win the game, and now they have a shot at accomplishing something truly great in Pittsburgh. I look for a much better showing by Bortles and the offense in general. Keep in mind, RB Leonard Fournette ran wild against the Steelers back in early October, gaining 181 yards and punching in a pair of touchdowns on the ground. Ben Roethlisberger threw five interceptions against the Jags defense on that afternoon, but I expect a much different story to unfold this time around. Big Ben will have all-world WR Antonio Brown back at his disposal, and with Martavis Bryant stepping up down the stretch as well, this aerial attack is truly loaded. We're dealing with a low total, but I don't believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-07-18 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New Orleans at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers are a trendy sleeper pick in the NFC entering these playoffs, and rightfully so in my opinion. I like the way this matchup sets up for them, even off an ugly showing in Atlanta last Sunday. Of course, prior to that, Carolina had reeled off three straight wins, scoring 84 points in the process. While the Panthers may not have the start power outside of Cam Newton on offense, this unit is capable of doing some damage. The Saints failed to end their regular season on a high note, falling by a 31-24 score in Tampa last Sunday. In fact, they went just 3-3 SU over their last six games. One of those wins did come against the Panthers right here in New Orleans, and it came by a 10-point margin. I can’t help but feel we see a tighter contest this time around as these two familiar divisional foes do battle. Take Carolina (10*). |
|||||||
01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tennessee and Kansas City at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ as the NFL Playoffs kick off in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon. While the Chiefs did close out the regular season with their offensively seemingly humming along, the fact is, neither of these offenses was all that consistent this season. Note that the Titans haven’t allowed more than 27 points in a game since Week 11, when they suffered a 40-17 loss in Pittsburgh, playing just four days after a 24-20 home win over the Bengals. Meanwhile, the Chiefs allowed 15 points or less in their last three games that mattered (they gave up 24 points in last week’s meaningless win over the Broncos – we won with the ‘over’ in that contest). There’s really no need to overthink things here. I’m just not sure that either quarterback really gets rolling, nor do I believe the ground games will run wild in the first of this weekend’s four Wild Card matchups. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-31-17 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 37.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Denver on Sunday afternoon. I'm confident we'll see both offenses open things up in this somewhat meaningless Week 17 matchup. The Chiefs will give rookie Patrick Mahomes a chance under center and I believe we'll see him perform well. Meanwhile, the Broncos offense has been a mess all season long but can take a step toward next season with a strong finish in front of the home faithful. Both defenses have had their ups and downs this season, but in reality there have been more downs than ups. Familiarity generally lends itself to lower scoring football games, but I believe the oddsmakers have gone too low with this total. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-31-17 | Cowboys -3 v. Eagles | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Cowboys on Sunday afternoon, even as they are simply playing out the string against the division rival Eagles. I expect questions to linger whether the Eagles are the real deal with the playoffs on the doorstep. Of course, Carson Wentz remains sidelined and Nick Foles did little to inspire confidence in Monday's narrow win over the Raiders. The Cowboys will certainly be looking to take out their frustrations on Philadelphia here, following a no-show at home against the Seahawks in a must-win game last Sunday. Look for the 'Boys to close out the season on a positive note. Take Dallas (10*). |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers OVER 42 | Top | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The betting marketplace still hasn't caught up with these two rejuvenated offenses, at least considering this relatively low posted total. The Jags have seemingly come out of nowhere to become a contender in the AFC this season and while their defense has led the way for much of the campaign, it has been their offense that has really shouldered the load lately. A host of emerging talents at wide receiver have helped lift up QB Blake Bortles and I expect to see continuation of that strong play here in San Francisco. Meanwhile, the 49ers have found their QB of the future in Jimmy Garoppolo. In fact, he's proving to be their QB of the present as well. This will be Garoppolo's toughest test since taking over the starting job for the Niners, but I'm confident he'll exceed expectations. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Lions v. Bengals +3 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this ones sets up for the underdog Bengals at home. The future is cloudy for the Bengals as a franchise as long-time head coach Marvin Lewis has one foot out the door. But for this week, the spot sets up well as the Lions come in off of back-to-back wins against the lowly Bucs and Bears. Cincinnati should get a boost offensively with the expected return of RB Joe Mixon. After appearing lifeless in the last couple of weeks, I'm confident we'll see the Bengals offense get rolling against a vulnerable Lions defense on Sunday afternoon. The Lions have their sights set on a playoff berth in the NFC but I believe we'll see their hopes spoiled in resounding fashion. The last time we saw the Bengals play with some pride was the first half against Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football three weeks ago. Expect more of that type of play on Sunday. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
|||||||
12-24-17 | Bills v. Patriots -11.5 | Top | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on New England minus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bills are on a nice little run having posted three wins in their last four games both SU and ATS. However, I believe that run grinds to a halt here in Foxboro. The Patriots escaped with a 27-24 win in Pittsburgh last week to take back control of the AFC. Now I expect to see them play loose back at home, and ultimately deliver a lopsided win over the Bills. Keep in mind, Buffalo has just one road win in the last two months and that came at the expense of the Chiefs, who were coming unraveled at the time. It won't be so fortunate in this spot as the Pats seem to have been galvanized by that shocking Monday night loss in Miami two weeks ago. We're being asked to lay double-digits here for a reason. Take New England (10*). |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Sean Murphy NFL Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings -8 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 52 h 43 m | Show |
09-15-19 | Chiefs -7 v. Raiders | Top | 28-10 | Win | 101 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers OVER 46.5 | Top | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -108 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears OVER 46 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -119 | 66 h 44 m | Show |
01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots UNDER 48 | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 9 m | Show |
01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 18 m | Show |
01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans OVER 48 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
12-30-18 | Raiders v. Chiefs -13.5 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show |
12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
12-23-18 | Rams v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
12-23-18 | Giants v. Colts OVER 47.5 | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
12-16-18 | Lions v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 13-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
12-13-18 | Chargers v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -100 | 47 h 59 m | Show |
12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
12-09-18 | Jets v. Bills -3.5 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
12-09-18 | Falcons v. Packers -4 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
12-06-18 | Jaguars v. Titans -4.5 | Top | 9-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles -6 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
12-02-18 | 49ers v. Seahawks -10 | Top | 16-43 | Win | 105 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
12-02-18 | Broncos v. Bengals OVER 44.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
11-26-18 | Titans +4 v. Texans | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
11-25-18 | Raiders v. Ravens -10.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers OVER 46 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
11-22-18 | Falcons +13.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 44 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 56 | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 1 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Raiders v. Cardinals -5.5 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -107 | 50 h 45 m | Show |
11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers OVER 44.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Cowboys v. Eagles -7 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Dolphins v. Packers -10 | Top | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 48 h 58 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 47 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Falcons v. Redskins UNDER 48 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -7.5 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
10-28-18 | Bucs v. Bengals OVER 54.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
10-28-18 | Eagles -3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 52 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +2.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 3 m | Show |
10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 71 h 58 m | Show |
10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos OVER 51.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -107 | 67 h 47 m | Show |
10-14-18 | Cardinals v. Vikings -10 | Top | 17-27 | Push | 0 | 64 h 52 m | Show |
10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5 | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5 | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Rams -7 v. Seahawks | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 57 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 46 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 45 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 52.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 33 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Bengals v. Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 48 h 28 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams OVER 49 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 25 m | Show |
09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions OVER 53.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
09-23-18 | Raiders v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
09-16-18 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4.5 | Top | 42-37 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions UNDER 45 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
09-09-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
09-09-18 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 51 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles -2 | Top | 12-18 | Win | 100 | 48 h 36 m | Show |
01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -7 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -118 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
01-14-18 | Saints +5 v. Vikings | Top | 24-29 | Push | 0 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers OVER 41 | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
01-07-18 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 37.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Cowboys -3 v. Eagles | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers OVER 42 | Top | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Lions v. Bengals +3 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Bills v. Patriots -11.5 | Top | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |