Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 105 h 38 m | Show |
Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. I had this total pegged at 45, maybe 45.5 if I'm being generous to the two offenses. Yet here we are, working with a total of 47.5 at the time of writing with the potential we see it bump up a half-point at some books in advance of Sunday's kickoff. We got the result we wanted in the late game on Conference Championship Sunday as the 49ers got shredded early before rallying for a wild 34-31 victory over the Lions (in which they would have covered the spread were it not for a late Lions touchdown). Note that the 'under' is 16-11 in San Francisco's last 27 games following an 'over' result and 6-3 in its last nine contests after giving up 30 points or more in its previous game, including a perfect 2-0 this season in that latter situation. There is reason to believe the Chiefs can move the football on this 49ers defense but I don't believe game script (this projects as a tightly-contested affair) will force Kansas City to play fast or bomb away. With that said, the Chiefs have attempted 30 or more passes 11 times going back to October 29th and didn't throw for 300 or more yards in any of those contests so even if they do throw the football more than we expect, it doesn't necessarily work against us. Andy Reid's team has evolved into one that relies heavily on its ground attack and short passing game to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten proceedings. That's precisely how they went into Baltimore and upset the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. I do suspect we'll see the 49ers continue to employ a run-funnel defensive gameplan in this contest in an effort to stamp out Kansas City's big-play potential through the air. The strength of this Niners defense is in the middle - a big reason it was so successful in keeping opposing tight ends under wraps all season long, and certainly in the playoffs. Kansas City TE Travis Kelce will draw plenty of prop bet money from recreational bettors leading up to Sunday's game and I don't think the sportsbooks mind that one bit. On the flip side, the Chiefs defense is elite. It presents challenges all over the field for the 49ers offense. While I'm higher than Niners QB Brock Purdy than some, he's going to have a difficult time trying to find his favorite target WR Brandon Aiyuk against the Chiefs lock-down corners. Meanwhile San Francisco TE George Kittle continues to deal with a nagging toe injury and might be best deployed as a decoy in this particular matchup. RB Christian McCaffrey will get his but he's essentially the only Niners skill position player that draws a favorable matchup here. There could be times where he's on an island trying to carry the Niners offense down the field. Again, any success McCaffrey has figures to keep the clock moving, effectively shortening this contest. The 'under' is 12-7 in the Chiefs last 19 games following a road win and a long-term 27-20 in their last 47 contests after an upset win away from home. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 4-1 in Kansas City's last five games following a bye week and 23-12 in its last 35 contests in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 47 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Baltimore at 3 pm et on Sunday. While there are plenty of offensive stars on display in this matchup, headlined by the quarterback showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, I actually expect points to come at a premium on Sunday afternoon in Baltimore. I don't envision either team having a ton of success throwing the football. The Chiefs have done a tremendous job of containing mobile opposing quarterbacks over the years and job number one will be taking away Lamar Jackson's legs on Sunday. Of course Jackson is playing arguably the best football of his career right now so that's no easy task. I do think we'll see the Chiefs defense, which is relatively healthy considering the time of year, at least force the Ravens to go on long, methodical drives that may or may not end in 7's on the board. Meanwhile, the Baltimore defense should feast on a Chiefs offense that has been gashed by injuries on the offensive line. Not only that but RB Isaiah Pacheco, who has been the team's unsung hero down the stretch, is playing on a bad toe and ankle. I would anticipate Kansas City using its short passing game and expect to see Patrick Mahomes flushed out of the pocket and forced to run the football on plenty of occasions on Sunday. Again, long, clock-eating drives could turn out to be the story of the game. Note that the 'under' is 8-1 in the Chiefs last nine games following a win by three points or less and 9-5 in their last 14 contests following four straight victories, as is the case here. The Ravens have seen the 'under' go 10-6 in their last 16 games following a home win and a long-term 30-21 in their last 51 contests after a victory by 21 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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01-21-24 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 49 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 3 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout potential. The same thing could have been said for the Lions matchup with the Rams last week but the scoring fizzled in the second half following a blazing hot start from the two offenses. Here, I expect both teams to score early and often. The Buccaneers draw a favorable matchup from an offensive standpoint but a tough one defensively. QB Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his NFL career right now and were it not for a couple of drops on potential big plays to veteran WR Mike Evans last Monday, Tampa Bay probably would have approached 40 points against what was once considered an elite Eagles defense. Here, the Bucs draw a Lions defense that can't stop the pass. Yes, Detroit has snuffed out opposing ground attacks but that's not really what Tampa Bay is all about right now. We've already seen the Bucs offense thrive in previous indoor games this season, scoring 20 points in Minnesota, 26 in New Orleans, 37 in Houston, 20 in Indianapolis and 29 in Atlanta. QB Jared Goff and the Lions explosive offense should continue to cook in this plus matchup on Sunday. The Bucs will do what they do defensively and that involves plenty of blitzing. Goff should eat them up with quick passes, noting that the Lions possess a rock solid offensive line and one of the best blocking running backs in football in David Montgomery. It's a pick your poison type of situation for the Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs will have to hope their offense can keep pace all afternoon long. Note that the 'over' is 7-2 in Tampa Bay's last nine road games as an underdog of seven points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. The 'over' is certainly flashing for the Lions noting that the 'over' has gone a perfect 5-0 in their last five games following a win by three points or less, 19-11 in their last 30 contests played indoors and a long-term 122-103 when coming off an 'under' result. Take the over (10*). |
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01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 43.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This total has dropped considerably since opening in part due to weather concerns with cold temperatures and potentially gusting winds playing a factor. I'm not overly concerned. The first meeting between these two teams this season was a bit of a stinker as Baltimore rolled to a 25-9 victory. Needless to say, the Texans are a much different team now than they were then (that previous matchup came in Week 1). Rookie QB C.J. Stroud is the real deal. I like the way this Texans offense has evolved over the course of the season. As good as the Ravens defense is, it is by no means perfect. Baltimore has actually allowed 4.5 yards per rush this season. Going back to mid-October, the Ravens were torched for 120+ rushing yards in eight of their last 12 games. There's undoubtedly a path forward for the Texans offense here and I'm confident we'll see them play loose. Head coach DeMeco Ryans is defensive-minded without question but I like the way he let the offense cook down the stretch and certainly in last week's playoff opener against Cleveland. Note that Houston has scored 20+ points in nine of its last 11 games, only failing to reach that number in a game where Stroud suffered a concussion and then when he missed the next week. Of note, Baltimore will be without top CB Marlon Humphrey for this game, easing the matchup for Texans breakout WR Nico Collins as well. Enough about the Texans, let's talk about the Ravens electric offense. I don't think Houston is going to have many answers against a well-rested Baltimore offense. The Texans haven't performed particularly well against the pass, in fact they've been downright awful in that regard at times. They've also struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks on the ground, yielding seven rushing touchdowns over the course of the season. Everything is on the table for the Baltimore offense here and I don't expect it to take its foot off the gas pedal for one moment in this game. Note that the 'over' is 23-15 in the Texans last 38 games when seeking revenge for a loss by 14 points or more against an opponent. When that previous blowout loss came on the road the 'over' has gone 15-7 in their last 22 contests. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 6-3 in the Ravens last nine games following a loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens -9.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I don't think it can be understated just how well the Ravens were playing prior to resting their starters in Week 18 against Pittsburgh (they lost that game 17-10). They had won six straight games heading into that contest, going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. The wins were all impressive including a 37-31 victory over the Rams in a rainstorm in Baltimore, a 33-19 rout of the 49ers in Santa Clara and a 56-19 dismantling of the Dolphins at home. I love what the Texans have done this season. They're undoubtedly a team on the rise and C.J. Stroud is already being talked about as a top-five quarterback in the league (rightfully so). They're running into an extremely difficult matchup here, however. The Ravens aren't the type of team to take their foot off the gas and they have favorable matchups all over the field on offense. Not only has Houston struggled to defend the pass this season but it has had a miserable time containing running quarterbacks, having allowed a whopping seven rushing touchdowns to opposing signal-callers. Derek Stingley Jr. erased Amari Cooper in last week's blowout win over the Browns but he'll be hard-pressed to do so against anyone particular in the Ravens multi-pronged aerial attack on Saturday. With TE Mark Andrews trending toward playing trouble abounds for the second level of the Texans defense. Even if Andrews can't go, TE Isaiah Likely figures to go off. Note that Houston is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an upset victory, as is the case here. In fact, the Texans are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 contests following an outright win as a home underdog. They're also 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games following three straight ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss against a division opponent. They're also 35-27 ATS in their last 62 contests following a home loss. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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01-15-24 | Steelers v. Bills -10 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 29 m | Show |
Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:30 pm et on Monday. UPDATE: This game has been moved to Monday. I’ll still be playing the Bills minus the points. Weather can be the great equalizer at this time of year and with high winds projected for kickoff of this Wild Card matchup on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, there are those that believe that will favor the underdog Steelers who are essentially playing with house money at this point. I think it's going to be a real struggle for Pittsburgh to score points in this game, regardless how the weather turns out. Buffalo somewhat quietly enters this game riding a five-game winning streak including a 21-14 victory in Miami last Sunday night to secure the AFC East division title and the Wild Card home game that goes with it. Unlike previous years, the Bills have been forced to essentially play playoff football for weeks just to get into the postseason. I think that actually works in their favor this year and while the road to the Super Bowl runs through Baltimore in the AFC, I believe the argument can be made that the Bills are playing as well as any team in the conference right now. Pittsburgh is in this game thanks to a three-game stretch at the end of the regular season that saw it face the Bengals (without Joe Burrow among others), Seahawks (who got worse as the season went on) and the Ravens (resting the majority of their starters). Note that the Steelers are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a road win. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 20-14 ATS in its last 34 home contests as a favorite of between 7.5 and 14 points. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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01-14-24 | Rams +3 v. Lions | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. The Rams enter the playoffs playing as well as anyone over the last two months, winners of seven of their last eight games having gone 6-2 ATS over that stretch. They're in their sweet spot on Sunday as they've gone 25-18 ATS in their last 43 road games as an underdog of three points or less. Meanwhile, the Lions are just 12-19 ATS in their last 31 games following a double-digit victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell elected to play his starters in last Sunday's win over the Vikings and paid the price to a certain extent with standout rookie TE Sam LaPorta suffering an injury. He has actually been able to get in limited practice this week and is expected to play but it remains to be seen how effective he can actually be. Regardless, I don't believe this is a favorable matchup for the Lions. I don't think there's anything more dangerous than an experienced team that catches fire late in the season and goes on the road in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The pressure rests squarely on the Lions shoulders in their first home playoff game in three decades. Keep in mind, Detroit played another seemingly massive home game back on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers and was stunned 29-22 as a near-double-digit favorite. Few teams can match Detroit's personnel at the skill positions on offense but Los Angeles is one of them with the emergence of rookie WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams this season. Note that the underdog has gone 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I think the Browns can score at will in this game as they look to continue their upward trajectory with veteran QB Joe Flacco under center. Cleveland was a run-first team earlier in the season, rushing the ball more than 30 times in eight of its first nine games. It was a much different story down the stretch, however, as the Browns ran the football at least 30 times just once in their final eight contests. They'll undoubtedly deploy a similar strategy here as the Texans simply don't have the personnel in place to stop the pass. On the flip side, I don't think we can rule out the Texans staying competitive in this game. When they faced the Browns on Christmas Eve they scored 22 points despite accomplishing very little with Case Keenum and Davis Mills running the offense. The Browns defense simply hasn't travelled well this season, allowing at least 22 points in all eight road games with the 'over' cashing at a perfect 8-0 clip. Note that the 'over' is 29-15 in the Texans last 44 home games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. I also strongly believe this game has the potential for 'splash' plays from the two defenses, potentially leading to points on the board. Flacco has admittedly been turnover-prone. C.J. Stroud, while the front-runner for offensive rookie of the year, will be up against a ball-hawking Browns secondary that looks like it will have the services of CB Denzel Ward after he tweaked his knee at practice earlier this week. Take the over (10*). |
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01-07-24 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks are of course in a must-win situation in Arizona on Sunday and while I'll rarely look to back teams on that premise alone, I do like the way this spot sets up for Seattle (which needs a victory and some help to get into the playoffs). First we'll note that Seattle has owned this series recently, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The road team is also a long-term 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 matchups between these two teams. The Cardinals are in a big letdown spot here after upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia last Sunday. Few expected them to be remotely competitive in that game. Of course, what worked last week may not work this week. The Cardinals ran wild on the Eagles. While the Seahawks haven't exactly played stout run defense, they do get back one of their best run stoppers in LB Jordyn Brooks from an ankle injury this week. Seattle is a long-term 121-100 ATS when coming off a loss and 62-45 ATS after giving up 30 points or more in their last game. The Cards are 7-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent and 15-19 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring 35 points or more in their previous contest. Take Seattle (10*). |
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01-07-24 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 46 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings defense held up better than most expected over the course of the season with Brian Flores' blitz-happy packages stemming the tide for much of the campaign. That hasn't been the case over the last three games, however. It seems that the book may be out on this incarnation of the Purple People Eaters. Minnesota has been smacked for 27, 30 and 33 points over its last three contests. The Vikes three opponents over that stretch - Cincinnati, Detroit and Green Bay - posted respective passing lines of 29-42-298, 30-40-246 and 25-34-193. According to head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions will play their starters on Sunday, despite being locked into the third spot in the NFC. Regardless who takes the field, I expect them to find success against the Vikes sagging defense. On the flip side, Minnesota will be going for it with a slim chance of reaching the postseason despite its embarrassing home loss against the Packers in primetime last Sunday. Teams haven't even bothered running against the Lions lately and the Vikings don't figure to stray from that strategy (they've run the football just 27 times over their last two games). More passing equates to more clock stoppages. I don't envision Minnesota possessing the football for long stretches on Sunday but I do think it can punch through with some big plays against this struggling Lions secondary. Take the over (10*). |
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01-06-24 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 34.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This is obviously a must-win game for the Steelers and they'll also need help in the form of a Dolphins win over the Bills tomorrow night to clinch a playoff spot. While Baltimore will be resting its starters, I'm not convinced it will simply roll over in this divisional revenge game after dropping a 17-10 decision in Pittsburgh earlier this season. While the Ravens won't play the majority of their starters you can be sure they would still like nothing more than to end the Steelers season here. I do think it's in both teams best interest to effectively shorten this game. For the Steelers, they'll be looking to take the crowd out of the game and make this one as boring as possible in my opinion. The last thing they want to do is awaken the sleeping giant in this case. QB Mason Rudolph has been ultra-efficient through his first two starts but regardless who he is facing on the Ravens defense on Saturday, they'll be scheming up to stop him. Note that Baltimore has forced a whopping 10 turnovers over its last three games. For the Ravens, they simply want to get through this game unscathed. Backup QB Lamar Huntley has only appeared in mop-up duty so far this season. Last year, the final scores in his five games of extended action totalled just 19, 30, 16, 26 and 29 points. While the 'over' has cashed in each of Pittsburgh's last four games, the 'under' is a long-term 149-114 when it plays away from home. The 'under' is also 12-4 in the Steelers last 16 games following a victory. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 42-22 in the Ravens last 66 contests after scoring 25 or more points in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-31-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Cincinnati at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is a massive bounce-back spot for both of these teams with the Bengals coming off a stunning beatdown in Pittsburgh and the Chiefs fresh off a Christmas Day upset at home at the hands of the hated Raiders. The difference here is, Kansas City has the personnel in place to bounce back. Cincinnati, in its current form, does not. The Bengals defense has been a massive disappointment this season, unable to stop the run or the pass. Needless to say, despite its struggles against Las Vegas on Monday, Kansas City has the pieces in place to explode on offense. This is a smash spot for Chiefs TE Travis Kelce in particular. With all signs pointing to Chiefs RB Isaiah Pacheco being good to go as well, we'll give Kansas City the green light on offense on Sunday. It's a different story for the Bengals as they try to squeeze as much as they can out of QB Jake Browning. He has regressed considerably and has yet to truly riff with elite WR Ja'Marr Chase, who is expected back this week. Note that the Chiefs are a long-term 63-47 ATS in their last 110 games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. The Bengals are just 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss by 21 points or more against a divisional opponent, which is the situation they're in on Sunday. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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12-31-23 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 42 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Saints have defied expectations from a totals perspective, at least on the road in recent weeks as the 'over' has gone 3-1 in their last four games played away from home. This is another promising spot for the Saints offense on the road against what has turned out to be a very beatable Buccaneers defense. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay offense has thrived with Baker Mayfield at the helm. With the Saints missing CB Marshon Lattimore once again, it's all systems go for the Bucs offense again. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series. We haven't seen four straight 'unders' between these two teams previously since 2014-16. In their next matchup on that occasion they combined to score 55 points. The 'over' is a long-term 63-54 with the Saints coming off a road loss, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 46-40 in Tampa Bay's last 86 games following an upset win. Take the over (10*). |
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12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -5 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. The Cowboys are in a prime bounce-back spot as they return home following consecutive losses in Buffalo and Miami. Detroit on the other hand finds itself in a letdown spot after clinching the NFC North division with last week's win (and cover) in Minnesota. While I fully expect Dallas to crash and burn at some point in the playoffs, I do think it has plenty of upside over the next 2-3 weeks. Note that the Lions are a miserable 12-30 ATS in their last 42 road games following consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Dallas is a perfect 6-0 in its last six home games as a favorite of a touchdown or less. The Cowboys are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take Dallas (10*). |
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12-24-23 | Cardinals v. Bears OVER 43 | Top | 16-27 | Push | 0 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Chicago at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. On a surprisingly pleasant Christmas Eve in Chicago weather-wise, we'll call for plenty of points in this NFC matchup. The Cardinals dropped a 45-29 decision at home against the 49ers last week and draw a similar matchup against an improved Bears defense here. With that said, Arizona has scored 24 or more points in consecutive games and it positioned quite well to thrive with the Kyle Murray-to-Trey McBride connection working wonders for the offense. Chicago has the potential to light it up as well as it looks to bounce back following last week's blown opportunity in Cleveland. The Bears didn't keep their foot on the gas against the Browns and ultimately let Cleveland off the hook. Against a reeling Cardinals defense we can anticipate Bears QB Justin Field going off in this matchup. Note that the 'over' is 17-10 in the Bears last 27 games following an ATS loss. The 'over' is also 15-11 in the Cards last 26 games after giving up 40 or more points in their previous contest. Take the over (10*). |
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12-24-23 | Lions v. Vikings +3 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -100 | 71 h 59 m | Show |
NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. Easy call for us here as we'll back the underdog Vikings at home after they dropped a hard-fought 27-24 decision in Cincinnati last Saturday while the Lions rolled to a blowout in over the Broncos. Note that the home team has gone 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings in this series. Detroit is just one game removed from a 15-point loss in Chicago and checks in a miserable 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a road favorite. Minnesota on the other hand is 40-24 ATS in its last 64 games as a home underdog and 6-2 ATS in its last eight contests following a loss by six points or less. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers +3 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. These teams are quite clearly heading in opposite directions right now but I like the Steelers chances of snapping their three-game losing streak as they stare down consecutive road games in Seattle and Baltimore to close out the season. Remember, on November 26th the Steelers went into Cincinnati as road favorites and delivered a 16-10 victory. No Kenny Pickett this time around but Pittsburgh will be essentially facing the same Bengals led by QB Jake Browning but with no WR Ja'Marr Chase or nose tackle D.J. Reader. The Steelers offense has fallen on hard times and will now turn to third-stringer Mason Rudolph at quarterback. While that's not all that encouraging, I don't believe he'll be asked to do too much as the Steelers should be able to run all over the Bengals front line. Note that Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after giving up 30 or more points in its most recent contest while it is also 33-18 ATS in its last 51 home games following a double-digit loss. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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12-17-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Patriots | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Chiefs are a screaming buy right now coming off consecutive losses, both SU and ATS, especially given the nature of last Sunday's home defeat against the Bills in which QB Patrick Mahomes in particular felt his team was shafted by the officials (even though it clearly wasn't). The SU winner has gone a perfect 13-0 ATS in the Patriots previous contests this season and I look for that trend to continue here. New England does have the rest advantage having not played since a week ago Thursday in Pittsburgh, when it staged a 21-18 upset victory. That win was about as ugly as it gets as the Pats gained just north of 300 total yards of offense and made an early lead stand up against Mitchell Trubisky and the Steelers. I don't need to tell you that there's an ocean between facing Trubisky and Mahomes, even with the Chiefs offense struggling at times this season. Note that Kansas City is a long-term 55-36 ATS when playing on the road following a loss. Meanwhile, New England is just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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12-17-23 | Giants +5.5 v. Saints | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on New York plus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. This spot sets up beautifully for the Giants in the sense that they have the ground game to gash the Saints and effectively shorten proceedings as a considerable road underdog. QB Tommy DeVito has grabbed plenty of headlines for his surprisingly efficient play. I don't expect him to be asked to do too much in this spot. The Saints are coming off a blowout win over the hapless Panthers but that victory had more to do with Carolina's inability to finish drives than anything else. Note that New Orleans is just 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season and 4-13 ATS in its last 17 contests following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Giants are a long-term 113-83 ATS on the road against NFC foes and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Take New York (10*). |
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12-16-23 | Broncos v. Lions -4.5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. NFL teams don't often get a shot at a 'do-over' but this is about as close as it comes for the Lions as they host the Broncos in a pre-holiday primetime game after laying an egg on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers. Adding fuel to Detroit's fire is the fact that it's coming off another stunning defeat against a divisional opponent in Chicago last Sunday. Perhaps QB Jared Goff's struggles in that contest were predictable as he hasn't travelled well over the course of his career. Here, he and the Lions draw a smash spot against a Broncos team that's 'fat and happy' off a 24-7 rout of the Chargers (who lost QB Justin Herbert to injury in the game) in Los Angeles last Sunday. Denver has improved, that's for sure. The Broncos are in the playoff picture thanks to a 6-1 SU run. I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Saturday, however. Note that Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an upset win and 2-5 ATS in its last seven road contests as an underdog of a touchdown or less. Detroit on the other hand is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a double-digit loss. The last time we saw it in that situation it delivered a 26-14 win over the Raiders in a primetime game on October 30th. Take Detroit (10*). |
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12-14-23 | Chargers +3 v. Raiders | Top | 21-63 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points first half over Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. In a battle of backup quarterbacks with both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense, I'll grab the points with the Chargers in the first half. My issue with Los Angeles for the full game is head coach Brandon Staley's track record closing out football games. That's not to mention the fact that Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell will likely be on a short leash here and his presence is one of the main reasons I'm interested in fading Las Vegas. Should Jimmy Garoppolo get another shot at running the offense, I could see the Raiders getting a spark. I do think the Raiders will need to make considerable halftime adjustments to support their offensive line, which is missing a pair of starters due to injury. The Chargers are set up well to feast on that Raiders o-line in the first half. On the flip side, we'll likely see Los Angeles lean heavily on swiss army knife RB Austin Ekeler against a Raiders run defense that has been torched for 4.4 yards per rush this season. QB Easton Stick won't have his top target on the field in WR Keenan Allen but I do like Stick's arm, not to mention his mobility, which he flashed during his years with North Dakota State. Keep in mind, Stick has been with the Chargers since 2019 and has the advantage of being familiar with the playbook, something that O'Connell has seemingly struggled to grasp in his first season as a Raider. Note that Los Angeles is 15-5 ATS in the first half in its last 20 games following a double-digit upset loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Las Vegas is 0-6 ATS in the first half in its last six games when seeking revenge for a loss by seven points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation here. Take Los Angeles first half (10*). |
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12-10-23 | Seahawks v. 49ers -13.5 | Top | 16-28 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers have won four straight meetings in this series by a combined score of 120-56. I don't envision the Seahawks closing the gap one bit on Sunday afternoon in Santa Clara. Seattle left it all on the field in last week's 41-35 loss in Dallas. I'm not sure how much Seattle has left in the tank following three straight losses that have dropped it to an even 6-6 on the campaign. QB Geno Smith is among those banged up heading into this matchup. There's a good chance we'll see backup QB Drew Lock at some point in this game. The 49ers have been a streaky team and I look for them to match their season-long three-game ATS winning streak here. This is a team that is still ascending offensively and essentially playing mistake-free football with just one turnover in its last four contests. Defensively, we've already seen the Niners absolutely wreck the Seahawks offense on Thanksgiving Night. Note that the Niners are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games against divisional opponents and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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12-03-23 | Panthers +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the visiting Panthers as they look to come away with something positive after firing head coach Frank Reich. Carolina has appeared lifeless this season, winning just once in 11 games. Needless to say, when a head coach gets fired, the players tend to take it upon themselves to show up and show out the next week. Tampa Bay had its four-game ATS winning streak snapped with a 27-20 loss at Indianapolis last Sunday. The once-stout Bucs defense has now allowed 24 points or more in four of its last five contests. Note that Tampa Bay is a miserable 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games following consecutive road defeats while Carolina is a long-term 142-117 ATS in an underdog role. We've seen an incredible 12 straight meetings in this series decided by more than a field goal but I think there's a good chance that this one goes down to the wire on Sunday. Take Carolina (10*). |
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12-03-23 | Broncos v. Texans OVER 47 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's all systems go for the Texans with breakout wide receivers Tank Dell and Noah Brown expected to play on Sunday in this critical home matchup against the Broncos. We know what the Houston offense is capable of and it should push the Broncos defense much harder than either of their last two opponents did in the banged-up Vikings and Browns (both of those games were played in Denver). On the flip side, Denver's offense is no longer the plodding, methodical unit taking what it can get. The Broncos have reeled off five straight wins, scoring 24 or more points in three of their last four contests. Finally with at true RB1 in Javonte Williams and a rejuvenated WR duo in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, the Broncos can give the Texans defense some problems in this game. Note that the 'over' is 29-14 in the Texans last 43 home games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-30-23 | Seahawks +9 v. Cowboys | Top | 35-41 | Win | 100 | 58 h 60 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Cowboys have rattled off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, but those came against three of football's worst teams in the Giants, Panthers and Commanders. While the Seahawks are reeling off back-to-back losses, they're still 6-5 on the season and I expect them to give the Cowboys all they can handle on Thursday night. Seattle ran into an incredibly difficult matchup last week, playing with a number of key contributors banged-up on a short week against the red hot 49ers. I do think the extra couple of days off will help the Seahawks here. Note that Dallas is a long-term 17-38 ATS when coming off five or six ATS wins in its last seven games, as is the case here. It is also 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by 28 points or more and 14-28 ATS in its last 42 contests following a home victory by 21 points or more. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are a long-term 59-35 ATS when coming off consecutive losses and 43-22 ATS in their last 65 games after scoring 17 points or less in back-to-back games. Regardless what has separated these two NFC foes over the years, the Seahawks have stayed competitive. You would have to go back eight meetings, all the way to 2011, to find the last time Dallas defeated Seattle by more than seven points. The underdog has gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups in this series. Take Seattle (10*). |
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11-26-23 | Steelers -1 v. Bengals | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Steelers dropped a heart-breaker in Cleveland last week and proceeded to fire offensive coordinator Matt Canada in a move that was a long-time coming in the eyes of most. Here, I look for Pittsburgh to take full advantage of a Joe Burrow-less Bengals squad that enters this game reeling off back-to-back losses. It's been a lost season for Cincinnati by most accounts. It started the campaign with consecutive losses (and went 0-3-1 ATS in its first four games) with Joe Burrow hobbled with a calf injury. There was a brief resurgence once Burrow got healthy but now he's out for the season, leaving undrafted backup QB Jake Browning to run the offense. That spells trouble against a ferocious Steelers defense that has proven it can win games all on its own this season. Pittsburgh has a new offensive coordinator but won't put too much on the offense in this particular game as it is well-positioned to win ugly. Notably, the Steelers have owned this series in Cincinnati over the years and even when they've fielded weaker teams, they've still managed to split the last four meetings in this stadium. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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11-23-23 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 44 | Top | 31-13 | Push | 0 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The 49ers are coming off consecutive 'under' results, a curious outcome considering they've gotten as healthy as they've been all season on offense over that stretch with Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel among those returning. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are fresh off a very low-scoring affair against the Rams as they dropped a 17-16 decision in Los Angeles. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday with a higher-scoring result than most are expecting. The Niners should feast on a Seahawks defense that has been relatively soft against the run and in the middle of the field. Yes, Seattle boasts a tremendous cornerback duo in Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon but that hasn't stopped opponents from attacking it relentlessly through the air. On the flip side, the Seahawks offense is admittedly banged up. QB Geno Smith is expected to play but is certainly at risk of sitting at some point due to his shoulder injury. As strange as it sounds, I like Seattle's offense with backup QB Drew Lock at the helm - especially as an 'over' bettor as his presence generally leads to plenty of 'splash' plays, often to his team's detriment. Seahawks home games have been considerably higher-scoring (47.2 points per game) than their road affairs (39.6 ppg) this season and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-23 | Commanders +12.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. The Cowboys enter this Thanksgiving Day divisional matchup with the Commanders riding a season-long two-game SU and ATS winning streak - that's right, season-long. As well as Dallas has played, consistency hasn't really been its calling card. The same goes for Washington and QB Sam Howell in particular. Howell is coming off a dreadful performance against the lowly Giants last Sunday, at home no less. The Commanders were upstaged by New York third-string QB Tommy DeVito, turning the football over a whopping six times in a 31-19 defeat. I do look for Washington to bounce back with a much sharper performance here, noting that it is a long-term 35-19 ATS when playing on the road after losing five or six of its last seven games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of just 2.3 points in that situation. The Cowboys are a woeful 16-38 ATS in their last 54 contests after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS, which is also the situation here, outscoring foes by only 2.6 points on average in that spot. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals +6 v. Texans | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I really like the setup for the underdog Cardinals here as they look rejuvenated with QB Kyler Murray back at the helm and catch the Texans in a massive letdown spot off last Sunday's stunning road win in Cincinnati. Arizona has proven to be a 'tough out' under rookie head coach Jonathan Gannon this season and last week's offensive breakout led by Murray and fast-emerging TE Trey McBride has it brimming with confidence heading into this 'spoiler' spot against the upstart Texans. Houston has been involved in three straight barn-burners - all decided by three points or less. While this team may never' hit the wall in their first season under the guidance of head coach DeMeco Ryans, I do think they get tripped up at some point during this three-game homestand, noting they've yet to notch more than two victories in a row this season. Arizona checks in 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog of seven points or less while Houston is 21-38 ATS in its last 59 contests following an upset victory. Take Arizona (10*). |
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11-19-23 | Steelers v. Browns -2 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Browns have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendar since the Steelers stunned them in a 26-22 victory in Pittsburgh on September 18th. The Steelers gained only 255 total yards in that game but turnovers were the story. The Browns have now lost QB Deshaun Watson to a season-ending injury but I don't expect them to fold the tent as a result. Everything is still in front of Cleveland after last week's upset win in Baltimore as it sits at 6-3 on the season in a crowded AFC North. This is a key spot with a sneaky-difficult two-game road jaunt to Denver and Los Angeles (vs. the Rams) on deck. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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11-16-23 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I can't help but feel the Bengals got caught overlooking the upstart Texans last Sunday, as many other teams have, or almost have this season. That loss snapped Cincinnati's four-game winning streak and put it in tough position here as it needs a win to avoid following three wins behind Baltimore in the AFC North standings. I do think the Bengals are one of those teams where the 'revenge' angle matters. We saw it in play to a certain extent a few weeks ago as Cincinnati went on the road and defeated San Francisco (after dropping a heartbreaker against the Niners at home in Joe Burrow's rookie season two years ago). Here, the Bengals will be looking to avenge an earlier 27-24 home loss against the Ravens, when Joe Burrow clearly wasn't right dealing with a calf injury earlier in the campaign. Baltimore also got caught overlooking its opponent last Sunday as it dropped a last-second decision against the division-rival Browns. While I don't believe the Ravens are as bad as they looked in the second half of that game, I also don't think they're as invincible as they appeared during their recent four-game winning streak. Home team has meant plenty in this series with the hosts winning four of the last five matchups. With that being said, you would have to go back three meetings here in Baltimore to find the last time the Ravens defeated the Bengals by more than two points. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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11-12-23 | Commanders v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Washington at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I generally look to fade the Commanders off a win at the best of times but here we have their opponent in a smash spot as well as the Seahawks return home following a lifeless performance in Baltimore last week. Washington has relied heavily on dual-threat QB Sam Howell to keep its offense afloat without a ground game to speak of this season. That spells trouble in situations such as this, however, where the Commanders are likely to be playing from behind. Seattle has struggled to lift the lid off its offense in recent weeks after showing so much promise early in the campaign (it scored exactly 37 points in consecutive games against Detroit and Carolina in September). This looks like a potential breakout spot against a Washington squad that has already allowed 30+ points on five different occasions this season and certainly didn't get any better defensively but cutting ties with pass-rush specialists Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Note that Washington is averaging a woeful 14.5 points per game the last six times it has come off an upset win on the road, as is the case here. Take Seattle (10*). |
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11-12-23 | 49ers v. Jaguars OVER 45 | Top | 34-3 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers come out of their bye week and look to snap a three-game losing streak in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. With WR Deebo Samuel and LT Trent Williams set to return it should be all systems go for the 49ers offense. Note that San Francisco turned the football over three times in each of its last two games with a number of potential scoring drives going awry as a result. The Niners still scored 17 points in each of those two contests and should be able to improve on that production here. Jacksonville has scored 20 or more points in five straight games and I don't expect it to go away quietly on Sunday. You can be sure QB Trevor Lawrence hasn't forgotten a stinker of a performance at home against the Niners during his rookie season in 2021. That was back when Jacksonville was guided by head coach Urban Meyer and Lawrence's weapons included the likes of RB James Robinson and WRs Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault Jr. The fact that the Jags even scored 10 points on that day was admirable. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-23 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. These two offenses balled out last Sunday as the Cowboys exploded for 43 points in a rout of the Rams while the Eagles rallied to secure a 38-31 road win over the Commanders. I expect nothing of the sort in terms of offensive production on Sunday as Dallas heads to Philadelphia. The Cowboys lived in the Rams backfield last Sunday, ultimately leading to plenty of mistakes and short fields for the offense. It's unlikely they'll enjoy the same level of success against an elite Eagles offensive line here. Philadelphia got away from its ground game last week but that was almost entirely game-script dependent as it trailed much of the way, ultimately running the football just 22 times. It was a similar story a few weeks ago against the Jets in New York. Here, I look for a far more run-centric approach from the Eagles in a game where they've been installed as a home favorite. Note that the 'under' has gone 9-1 in the Cowboys last 10 games where the line was posted between +3 and -3, as is the case here. The 'under' is a long-term 50-20 in the Eagles last 70 games after their previous contest totalled 60 or more points and 17-6 in their last 23 home games after a win by seven points or less against a divisional foe, with both of those situations in play here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-23 | Saints v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-27 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results last week and that's led to this total being bet up a few points since opening. I believe it's a move in the wrong direction. The Saints have aired it out 50+ times in consecutive weeks. That's not how this offense is built as head coach Dennis Allen and QB Derek Carr are as risk-averse as it gets. I do expect the Saints to find some success in this game but road teams haven't been running away and hiding on the Colts here in Indianapolis this season with their four home games all decided by 10 points or less. Indy put up a whopping 38 points against Cleveland last Sunday but I'm not counting on a repeat performance. After turning the football over four times in each of the last two weeks, there's reason to believe we'll see Shane Steichen's Colts scale back their offensive gameplan for QB Garnder Minshew against an elite Saints defense on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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10-23-23 | 49ers v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers got bogged down offensively in a bad weather game (against a very good defense) in Cleveland last Sunday ending their streak of five straight games scoring 30 or more points to open the season. I expect them to pick right back up on Monday as they draw a mouth-watering matchup under the Bank of America Stadium roof in Minnesota. The Vikings only hope on defense is that their blitz-happy nature can force 49ers QB Brock Purdy into a couple of crucial mistakes but I'm more confident in Purdy's ability to pick apart a very beatable Vikes secondary. Even without all-world WR Justin Jefferson, I do think the Minnesota offense can test an extremely stout 49ers defense. Rookie WR Jordan Addison flashed in the absence of JJ last Sunday in Chicago. The Vikes offense got off to a strong start in that contest before slowing down in the second half. While most have given up on RB Alexander Mattison, I think he has plenty of tread left on his tires. Note that he contributed a touchdown run in Minnesota's wild 34-26 loss in San Francisco the last time these two teams met in November of 2021. The Vikes manufactured 26 points in that contest despite Jefferson being held out of the end zone. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 7-0 with Minnesota priced as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points over the last three seasons with that situation totalling an average of 61.2 points. Even if we downgrade the Vikes offense with Jefferson sidelined, they still figure to approach the 20-point mark. Take the over (10*). |
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10-22-23 | Chargers +5.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. With the Chargers low-scoring defeat at home against the Cowboys on Monday night fresh in our mind, we'll back Los Angeles as it heads out on the road on a short week to face the mighty Chiefs. Kansas City rode three turnovers to a 19-8 victory over the Broncos a week ago Thursday night. Note that the Chargers have only turned the football three times all season. While Los Angeles has lost three straight matchups in this series, all three defeats came by less than one score. The Chargers have long been successful in road games, going 145-107 ATS in their last 252 games played away from home. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are a miserable 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit victory, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 2.5 points in that situation. Despite their 2-3 record, the Chargers do a lot of things well and I expect them to give the Chiefs all they can handle on Sunday afternoon. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-22-23 | Commanders v. Giants +3 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Giants let the Bills off the hook last Sunday night, plain and simple. A massive upset win was there for the taking and New York let it slip away. With that being said, the G-Men have to be feeling as good about themselves as they have all season entering this division matchup against the Commanders. Washington picked up a road win in Atlanta last Sunday despite gaining fewer than 200 total yards. The Commanders will have three two-game road swings this season and I don't expect them to sweep any of them. Whether it's Tyrod Taylor or Daniel Jones under center for the Giants, I expect solid production from the quarterback position on Sunday. RB Saquon Barkley looked no worse for wear following his high ankle sprain last week as he returned and turned in a productive performance against the Bills. The Giants will be taking a step down in class in all facets against Washington and I expect them to take advantage of this rare opportunity to pick up a victory. Take New York (10*). |
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10-15-23 | Eagles -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are cruising along a little bit, dare I say, beneath the radar at 5-0 on the season. Philadelphia will again try to string together an ATS winning streak for the first time this season as it heads to the Meadowlands to face the Jets on Sunday. I like the way this matchup sets up for Philadelphia. Yes, the Jets possess a talented defense. Yet the reality is they're still giving up plenty to opposing passing games, as we saw in last week's relatively high-scoring affair in Denver, and are sorely missing Sauce Gardner's running mate at corner in D.J. Reed. The Eagles offense hasn't always looked dominant this season but I think this matchup favors them immensely. While Philadelphia will be forced to go without CB Darius Slay and DT Jalen Carter among others, it is also expected to get back LB Nakobe Dean. The Jets offense isn't all that difficult to gameplan for. The Eagles will need to key on RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson. There's no question QB Zach Wilson's presence continues to keep New York's offensive ceiling relatively low. I certainly don't expect Breece Hall to slice and dice through the Eagles defense the way he did against the Broncos sieve-like defensive front last Sunday. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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10-15-23 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 43.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings season is obviously swirling down the drain following another loss last Sunday, not to mention the fact that all-world WR Justin Jefferson will miss a considerable number of weeks due to injury. With that being said, Minnesota is in a smash spot against the Bears on Sunday and should finally be able to get rolling offensively. Thought to be one of the best 'over' bets on a weekly basis out of the gates this season, you would have to go back to Week 2 to find the last time a game involving the Vikes found its way 'over' the total. That should change here. The Bears defense has already given up a whopping eight rushing touchdowns through five games this season. Chicago's secondary has been ravaged by injuries and even without Jefferson, Minnesota's passing game remains dynamic with rookie WR Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn and TE T.J. Hockenson in line to eat on Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, it's all systems go for Bears QB Justin Fields after he got going against the Commanders last week. Minnesota has managed to pick off just one pass all season in contrast with eight passing touchdowns allowed. That's about par for the course given the Vikes personnel deficits in pass defense. I can't imagine Chicago bothering to bang its head against the wall running the ball in this game, instead electing to attack Minnesota's burnable secondary through the air. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-23 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 42 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We're looking at a classic overreaction to last Sunday's results in my opinion as this total has climbed a number of points since opening. The Jets offense went from lifeless to inspired thanks to a stunningly sharp performance from QB Zach Wilson against the mighty Chiefs last Sunday night. Meanwhile, the Broncos hung 34 points on the lowly Bears in a massive come-from-behind victory in the Windy City. I'm taking both of those results with a grain of salt, however, as I believe the jury is still out as to how efficient or explosive these two offenses can be. The Jets aren't going to win many games pinning their hopes on an offense that has been of the pop-gun variety at best so far this season. I wouldn't anticipate them opening up the playbook too wide for Wilson in a hostile environment against an opportunistic Broncos defense on Sunday. On the flip side, Denver's furious rally last week came against a hapless Bears defense. I expect the Broncos to go back to a rather conservative offensive gameplan against an elite Jets defense. Note that these two teams just met here in Denver last October with New York prevailing in a 16-9 slugfest. Two years ago on this same field, the Broncos pitched a shutout in a 26-point rout. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 24-11 with the Jets playing on the road off three or more consecutive losses with that situation producing an average total of just 36.3 points. Better still, the 'under' is 15-2 with Denver coming off three straight games in which it allowed 25 or more points, as is the case here, leading to just 38.3 total points on average in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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10-08-23 | Texans v. Falcons -1.5 | Top | 19-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons have to be disappointed with their 2-2 start after starting the season by reeling off consecutive victories. They were hampered by more mistakes from QB Desmond Ridder last Sunday in London, dropping a lopsided decision against Jacksonville. I do expect them to 'get right' back at home on Sunday as they host the upstart Texans. Houston started the campaign with back-to-back losses but has since evened its record at 2-2 thanks to upset wins over the Jaguars and Steelers. I simply feel it is going to have a difficult time moving the football, let alone scoring against an underrated Falcons defense this week. Consider this Texans QB C.J. Stroud's 'welcome to the NFL' moment as he gets checked by Atlanta after turning heads over the last two games. Falcons fans have been calling for backup QB Taylor Heinicke to take over under center but I expect him to be stuck warming the bench for at least one more week. Too much Bijan Robinson and too much Atlanta defense in this spot. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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10-08-23 | Titans -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Titans have owned the Colts lately taking five straight meetings in this series and I don't think that winning streak will be in jeopardy on Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis. While the case can be made that Tennessee is ripe for a letdown off last week's dismantling of Cincinnati at home, I think it's more likely we finally see some consistency from Mike Vrable's squad. The Colts defensive warts finally showed in last week's 29-23 overtime loss against the Rams. That game wasn't close for the first half before Indianapolis staged a furious second half rally. Colts QB Anthony Richardson is the real deal but he doesn't have many weapons at his disposal just yet. RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to make his season debut on Sunday but he'll likely be on a 'pitch count'. Yeah, this is a team with a lot of 'but's' at this point. The Titans run defense has been incredibly stingy, limiting opponents to just 2.9 yards per rush this season. On the flip side, Tennessee's vaunted ground attack should feast with help on the way on the offensive line in the form of Peter Skoronski and Nicholas Petit-Frere. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44 | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met on a Thursday night last season, the result was a predictable snoozefest that went Washington's way by a score of 12-7. While few are expecting much entertainment from this Thursday's rematch, I actually think we could be in for some offensive fireworks. Both teams thrived offensively last Sunday with both falling a field goal short, albeit in much different fashion. The Bears coughed up a three-touchdown lead in an eventual 34-31 loss to the Broncos, at home no less. Meanwhile, the Commanders gave the mighty Eagles all they could handle on the road in a 31-28 overtime defeat. Chicago's offense sputtered in this matchup last year but should confidently attack a leaky Commanders back-end on Thursday with QB Justin Fields coming off a confidence-building performance against Denver. While the Bears offensive line has been downright offensive so far this season, help is on the way in the form of left guard Teven Jenkins, who is expected to return from a calf injury. Washington has been wildly inconsistent on offense. That's quite simply what you're going to get with Sam Howell as your starting quarterback. I do think we'll see the Commanders get whatever they want on the ground in this game with the underrated RB duo of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson poised to go off against a Charmin-soft Bears defensive front. Likely to have plenty of time to operate in the pocket, Howell figures to take his shots against an injury-depleted Bears secondary as well. Chicago is allowing a ridiculous 8.4 yards per pass attempt this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with the Bears playing on the road off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons, as is the situation here, with that spot producing an average total of 53.9 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks -1 v. Giants | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I know the case can be made to back a desperate Giants squad as they return home licking their wounds following a dismantling at the hands of the mighty 49ers last week. After all, New York has had a couple of extra days of preparation and also has the 'revenge' angle working its favor after dropping a 27-13 decision in Seattle last year. I'm not ready to buy in, however. New York will be without RB Saquon Barkley. He obviously means a lot to the Giants offense but not just for his running and catching ability but also as a pass blocker. In fact, Barkley ranked tops among all running backs in pass-blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus last season. Without Barkley, the Giants will have a tough time staying ahead of the chains and ultimately chewing clock in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings on Monday. The Seahawks got off to a tough start this season with a blowout loss at home against the Rams. Of course, the Rams have turned out to be a more competitive team than most expected. Since then, Seattle has reeled off consecutive wins over the Lions and Panthers. Now it will look to keep it rolling as Geno Smith sets up in a 'revenge' spot of his own in his old stomping grounds at Met Life Stadium. There's a lot to like about the Seahawks on both sides of the football, and it sounds like they'll be getting some key pieces back healthy on the defensive side of the football this week. Take Seattle (10*). |
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10-01-23 | Ravens +2 v. Browns | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Ravens are coming off an embarrassing showing at home against the Colts last Sunday. The sky is not falling in Baltimore though as the Ravens remain 2-1 to start the season, good enough for a tie for top spot in the AFC North. Here, Baltimore has an opportunity to make a statement on the road against a Browns squad that is off to a perfect 2-0 start at home. The Ravens last played here last December and were unable to complete the season sweep, dropping an ugly 13-3 decision. It's worth noting that Cleveland hasn't won consecutive matchups in this series since way back in 2007. I like the notion of Todd Monken drawing up a far more effective offensive gameplan for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens after last week's debacle against the Colts. He'll certainly need to do that given how stout the Browns have been on defense so far this season. I'm not particularly high on Cleveland's offense, certainly without RB Nick Chubb. Chubb's absence wasn't really felt last Sunday as the Browns were able to control proceedings from the get-go against the Titans. This week, Chubb will be missed. Note that the Ravens have held up tremendously well in pass defense this season, allowing just 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Needless to say, Deshaun Watson doesn't instill a great deal of confidence as a passer right now. The Ravens check in a long-term 36-18 ATS as a road underdog of a field goal or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.9 points along the way while the Browns are a miserable 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games after a win by 14+ points, outscored by 6.5 points on average in that spot. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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10-01-23 | Broncos v. Bears UNDER 46.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think both of these defenses are being lumped into the 'bad' category three games into the season but I'm not sure it's warranted. The Broncos got schooled by the Dolphins explosive offense last Sunday, allowing a ridiculous 70 points in a 50-point defeat. Meanwhile, the Bears gave up 41 points on the road against the Chiefs. Here, both defenses catch a break as we're talking about two of the slowest and most punchless offenses in the entire league. Broncos head coach Sean Payton clearly isn't comfortable dialing up many aggressive plays down the field for QB Russell Wilson. The same goes for the Bears with QB Justin Fields as they continue to waste his talent with tentative play-calling. I can't help but feel we're in for a game where the two offenses move up and down the field but accomplish very little on the scoreboard Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, the last three meetings in this series have produced 23, 32 and 30 total points. The 'under' is a long-term 41-16 with the Bears playing at home as an underdog of three points or less, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 37.2 points scored in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers +2 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are off to solid 2-1 starts to the season. That was expected of the Lions, even if their path to get there has been a little surprising. Few gave the Packers much of a chance as they began the post-Aaron Rodgers era. However, Green Bay has proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out' and I think that will prove to be the case again on Thursday. The Packers find themselves in a rare 'triple revenge' spot in this series having dropped the last three matchups going back to early 2022. They actually did a tremendous job of containing a terrific Lions offense in last season's two meetings, allowing a grand total of 35 points and holding WR Amon-Ra St-Brown to just 104 scoreless yards. While most consider Jordan Love a considerable downgrade from Aaron Rodgers, he won't have too high of expectations thrown his way after Rodgers threw just two touchdown passes and four interceptions against Detroit last season. Love is expected to get some help this week with the return of RB Aaron Jones and the season debut of WR Christian Watson. I expect both to make an impact. Defensively, the Packers have some work to do at the back-end, especially if Jaire Alexander is forced to miss his second straight game. The good news is, the Lions offense hasn't been quite the same on the road, with Jared Goff looking like a completely different quarterback away from the friendly confines of Ford Field. Green Bay pass rush specialist Rashan Gary has looked like a man on a mission after last year's devastating ACL injury and is a true game-wrecker on the line. Here, we'll note that the Lions are a long-term 12-30 ATS when priced as a road favorite of less than a touchdown, outscored by an average margin of 2.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Packers are a long-term 108-79 when playing at home on six days or less rest, outscoring the opposition by 8.2 points on average and a terrific 11-2 ATS in an underdog role over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points in that spot. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs OVER 44.5 | Top | 25-11 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Tampa Bay at 7:15 pm et on Monday. The Buccaneers have displayed a rock solid offensive floor in this particular matchup in recent years, putting up 45, 27, 28 and 31 points in four meetings going back to 2015 including two since 2021. No, Tampa Bay doesn't have Tom Brady running the show anymore, but I do think it can find success with Baker Mayfield working against what looks to be a pass-funnel Eagles defense so far this season. Injuries to Avante Maddox and Nakobe Dean have certainly played a role in Philadelphia's early-season deficiencies on the defensive side of the football. On the flip side, this is a double-revenge spot for the Eagles after dropping each of its last two matchups against the Bucs. Note that Tampa Bay has allowed an average of 25.7 points per game when coming off consecutive contests in which it gave up 17 points or less over the last three seasons (six-game sample size), leading to an average total of 49.5 points in that situation. The Eagles offense has yet to really hit its stride through two games but still managed to put up a total of 59 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-23 | Bills v. Commanders +6.5 | Top | 37-3 | Loss | -104 | 95 h 42 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bills had little trouble shaking off a season-opening loss to the Jets, rebounding to crush the Raiders at home as a big favorite last Sunday. With that being said, I do expect them to be in for a fight in Washington this week. The Commanders are off to a surprising 2-0 start (to some). A win was certainly expected in their opener against the lowly Cardinals while last week's 'upset' victory in Denver was of the mild variety to be sure. Regardless, I do feel Washington matches up reasonably well with Buffalo this week and we're being offered a generous helping of points. The Commanders always seem to boast a fierce pass rush and this year has been no different. While few have paid much attention to their first two contests, they've racked up a whopping 10 sacks while applying heaps of pressure on opposing quarterbacks Joshua Dobbs and Russell Wilson. They'll be facing a much tougher opposing quarterback here, but also one that tends to get turnover-happy when under duress (as we saw in Week 1 against the Jets). Buffalo continues to employ a three-man rotation in the backfield and I think that has more to do with no one stepping up and taking the RB1 job than anything else. Washington hasn't given opposing running backs much room to run, allowing only 3.4 yards per rush so far this season. On the flip side, I think this Bills defense is beatable. I was fairly high on the Buffalo defense out of the gates this season, especially with the trio of Tre'Davious White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde finally all healthy at the same time in the secondary. In watching their first two games, however, I've seen a defense that looks vulnerable, particularly in the back-end. Neither the Jets or Raiders had the personnel to really stretch the field (due to Aaron Rodgers' injury and Jimmy Garoppolo's ineptness) but both teams still came up with some splash plays through the air (the Raiders game-opening touchdown drive last Sunday comes to mind). Here, Commanders QB Sam Howell should be able to test Buffalo's pass defense, working behind an offensive line that is one of the more underrated in the entire league. Washington has speed to burn at the receiver position with Terry McLaurin leading the way. TE Logan Thomas is questionable to play this week but his possible absence would only mean more touches for the likes of McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Take Washington (10*). |
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09-24-23 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
AFC Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a smash spot for the Patriots defense as they line up against a Jets offense that is completely out of sorts after losing QB Aaron Rodgers to a season-ending injury in Week 1. Compounding matters is the fact that New York is also without LT Duane Brown, meaning it's all systems go for the New England pass rush on Sunday. Bill Bellichick has owned Jets QB Zach Wilson and given the fact that New England enters this game sporting an 0-2 record, I don't expect the Pats to hold anything back gameplan-wise on Sunday. I've actually come away encouraged by the Pats offensive play-calling through two games under coordinator Bill O'Brien. There's not a lot New England can do schematically to circumvent an outstanding Jets secondary in this matchup, but I do think the Pats can move the football well enough to let their defense take care of the rest on Sunday. The Jets are obviously in desperate need of a spark offensively but they're unlikely to get it until Zach Wilson is sent to the bench, perhaps in favor of another veteran quarterback. Dalvin Cook certainly hasn't been the answer out of the backfield. All he's doing is eating into the workload of RB Breece Hall. Try as they might, I don't expect the Jets to break through offensively on Sunday. Take New England (10*). |
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09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers UNDER 44.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We saw a predictably high-scoring affair on Thursday Night Football last week as the Vikings and Eagles lit up the scoreboard in Philadelphia. I expect a much different story to play out this week as the Giants and 49ers do battle on a short week in Santa Clara. New York got off to a sluggish start in Arizona last Sunday but ultimately got it together in the second half in a massive come-from-behind victory over the Cardinals. The Giants will face a much more difficult test here, however, as the 49ers enter sporting a perfect 2-0 record off back-to-back road wins to open the campaign. I don't anticipate Giants QB Daniel Jones having much time to operate behind a banged-up offensive line. The 49ers boast one of the league's fiercest pass rushes and I'm certain we'll see Brian Daboll's employ a gameplan centered around Jones getting the football out quick, not to mention a healthy dose of the Giants ground game. The effectiveness of that New York backfield is in question with RB Saquon Barkley questionable to play after getting hurt on Sunday. For the 49ers, I look for them to go a little more conservative here as they play on a short week following consecutive road games. This is a game where they should be able to control proceedings from the jump and there should come a point where they can essentially take the air out of the football. While QB Brock Purdy has been efficient through the first two games (and throughout the early stages of his career) he does have a tendency to distribute the football close to the line of scrimmage rather than looking for big plays down field. I expect to see a number of long, clock-eating drives from the 49ers in particular in this one, which of course serves us well with the 'under'. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 131-90 with the Giants coming off an 'over' result, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 42.2 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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09-18-23 | Saints -3 v. Panthers | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Carolina at 7:15 pm et on Monday. The Saints may not be an elite NFC team but I do think they'll be in the playoff conversation all season. Here, they'll look to keep pace with the division-leading Buccaneers and Falcons, who both secured their second straight wins to open the season yesterday afternoon. I think New Orleans is in excellent position to move to 2-0 as well with this favorable Monday night draw in Carolina. The Saints only eked out a one-point victory over Tennessee in what was a defensive slugfest last Sunday. There were lots of positives to take away from that low-scoring affair, however. QB Derek Carr looked very comfortable in the Saints pocket - this has the potential to be a terrific fit for the 32-year old quarterback. He won't be asked to do too much but does have the tools to distribute the football to a sneaky-good group of receivers and tight ends led by super sophomore Chris Olave. This is a potential blow-up spot for RB Jamaal Williams as well as he once again handles the lead back role. The Panthers were not good against the run in last Sunday's lopsided loss in Atlanta. Offensively, the Panthers have the potential to be one of the league's worst teams. While it's important not to overreact to Week 1 results, Carolina's 'O' looked lukewarm at best, relying heavily on Bryce Young's athleticism at quarterback to elevate a rag-tag cast of weapons (I use the term 'weapons' lightly in this case). The Saints defense put the clamps on the Titans offense last week and this is a similarly favorable matchup. Note that while the Panthers have won consecutive meetings in this series, their offensive ceiling remains low, producing 26 points or fewer in seven straight matchups with the Saints. In a similar vein, New Orleans has produced 18 points or less in each of the last four meetings but again, it brought in veteran QB Carr to give the offense a lift and I think we'll see it produce on Monday. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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09-17-23 | 49ers -7 v. Rams | Top | 30-23 | Push | 0 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Rams turned in one of the most impressive performances in Week 1 as they routed the division rival Seahawks, on the road no less. I expect them to suffer considerable regression here in Week 2, however, as they host the 49ers. Los Angeles is between a rock and a hard place defensively in this matchup. Last week, the Rams were able to play a very conservative style against the Seahawks, keeping everything in front of them and frustrating QB Geno Smith and his receiving corps all afternoon long. The 49ers are capable of taking full advantage of that type of gameplan though with RB Christian McCaffrey fresh off an efficient performance against the Steelers last week. It seemed as though the jury was still out on QB Brock Purdy over the course of the offseason but he looked incredible in a game managing role last Sunday and should be able to repeat that performance here. The Rams offense is still missing WR Cooper Kupp and QB Matt Stafford, while impressive in last week's win, is likely to be under duress for much of the afternoon on Sunday. The Steelers offense was arguably better positioned to move the football on this San Francisco defense last Sunday and couldn't get anything going. Pittsburgh managed only 62 rushing yards against the Niners defensive front and you could make the case that Los Angeles boasts a weaker backfield tandem in Cam Akers and Kyren Williams, even though the latter did impress against a swinging gate Seahawks defense last Sunday. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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09-17-23 | Raiders v. Bills OVER 47 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Raiders defense was never really tested in last Sunday's 'upset' win in Denver as the Broncos employed an extremely conservative gameplan. I expect a completely different story to unfold here as the Bills look to bounce back following Monday's ugly overtime loss against the Jets. New York made Buffalo's offense look completely average in that contest but make no mistake, this is still an elite Bills 'O'. The fact that the Raiders held the Broncos to only 16 points on less than 300 total yards simply didn't tell the whole story. Denver actually got most of what it wanted on offense in that contest but rarely pushed the football down the field. There's a path for the Raiders offense to make some headway against the Bills here. Buffalo's defense looked downright awful against the run on Monday night, allowing Jets RB Breece Hall to get loose for big gains on a number of occasions. Las Vegas' offensive gameplan will likely center around RB Josh Jacobs here. While the Raiders will be without WR Jakobi Meyers after he hauled in two touchdown catches last Sunday, that only means more looks for DaVante Adams who remains a gamebreaker despite getting up there in age. The Bills secondary held up fine on Monday against Zach Wilson and while this does figure to be another favorable matchup against Jimmy Garoppolo, I do think Adams can win his share of matchups. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-23 | Jaguars v. Colts OVER 45.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
AFC Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. Last year's matchup between these two AFC South rivals in the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium produced a whopping 61 total points and that was with noodle-armed veteran QB Matt Ryan running the offense for Indianapolis. The Colts were without RB Jonathan Taylor on that day and will be again here. Of course, Ryan is no longer under center for Indy - now it's up to rookie Anthony Richardson. His upside is enormous but there will be growing pains. While this is by no means an ideal Week 1 matchup, I do think Richardson can make enough happen to keep the Colts more competitive than most think. While a clock-control offensive gameplan might make sense for Indy, that will be tough to employ if (and more likely when) they fall behind by a considerable margin. Ryan threw the football 58 times in that aformentioned matchup here last year. Richardson won't approach that pass attempt total here but I still expect him to be forced to throw plenty (which could also potentially lead to turnovers and short fields for the Jaguars offense). Jacksonville is loaded offensively as QB Trevor Lawrence settles in for his third NFL season and second under the guidance of head coach Doug Pederson. The attack only gets stronger with the additions of WR Calvin Ridley and rookie RB Tank Bigsby. After lighting up the Colts defense in last year's two matchups there's reason to believe Lawrence can and will go off again here, keeping in mind the Colts defense arguably got worse in the offseason, certainly at the back-end. I do question, however, whether the Jags even know how to 'take the air out of the football' so to speak. While Jacksonville is understandably a popular road favorite this week, I would hesitate to lay points until it shows me it can manhandle an opponent the caliber of the Colts as it should. Expect Indy to do just enough to keep this one competitive and ultimately help the total along. Take the over (10*). |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles -1.5 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 33 m | Show |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. As impressive as the Eagles have been from wire-to-wire this season I'm not sure the casual NFL viewer/follower realizes just how good this team is from top-to-bottom. There's been a lot of talk about how the Eagles have got off easy this season, facing a lighter schedule than most, even if the truth is they've gone against a very comparable slate of opponents to that of the Chiefs, for example. With QB Jalen Hurts healthy, the Eagles have been virtually unstoppable on offense and the same goes for the defense from a health perspective. When at full strength, as is the case right now, there's no more talented defense in the NFL even going position-by-position. Yes, the Chiefs legacy continues to grow with the trio of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce the true faces of the franchise through it all. I'm concerned about just how banged-up they are, even with the bye week, heading into this contest. On so many occasions, Kansas City has been forced to rely upon Patrick Mahomes heroics (and the exploits of his supporting cast). Yes, the defense has come up big at times as well, most notably late in the Divisional Round win over the Jaguars, but I don't put that unit on nearly the same plane as that of the Eagles. Offensively, the Eagles have an incredibly versatile attack that can beat you in a number of different ways. The emergence of second-year WR DeVonta Smith has made them that much more explosive, and I think the production of TE Dallas Goedert gets overshadowed as well. The same goes for RB Miles Sanders, who is often afforded gaping holes to run through thanks to an all-world offensive line. I could go on, but the fact is, the Eagles have been the best team in the NFL all season long, and as difficult as it is to fade Reid, Mahomes and company, I'm willing to do it at what I consider to be a short number here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 47.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 46 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. Both of last weekend's AFC Divisional Round matchups ended up fizzling from a point-scoring perspective, leading to a pair of 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold this Sunday as the Bengals and Chiefs do battle in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game. While the Bengals ran the football at will in last Sunday's landslide win over the Bills in snowy Buffalo, I expect nothing of the sort against a stout Chiefs run defense here. Cincinnati's path to victory here undoubtedly involves throwing the football at will and doing so in all areas of the field. The Bengals pass protection issues were non-existent last Sunday but will likely play more of a factor here. While one might think that would lead to a lower ceiling for this Bengals offense, I'm not convinced that will be the case. Joe Burrow has routinely carved up the Chiefs defense in three previous matchups between these two teams and I'm confident in Cincinnati's ability to scheme up an offensive gameplan that puts the ball into the hands of its playmakers like Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase. On the flip side, the Chiefs offense also has an apparent low ceiling with QB Patrick Mahomes dealing with a high ankle sprain that looked awfully severe in last Saturday's gutsy win over the Jaguars. With that being said, Mahomes is operating behind a Chiefs offensive line that is only overshadowed by the Eagles in that department as far as teams remaining in the playoffs go. Similarly to the Bengals, I believe the Chiefs best chance at advancing to the Super Bowl comes by putting the ball in the air, again in all areas of the field with guys like do-everything RB Jerick McKinnon and all-universe TE Travis Kelce pacing the offense. The three previous meetings between the Bengals and Chiefs going back to last season have produced 65, 51 and 51 total points. We're working with a reasonably low total here, largely due to the injury to Mahomes and the cluster of injuries on the Bengals offensive line. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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01-29-23 | 49ers v. Eagles -2 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 31 m | Show |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over San Francisco at 3 pm et on Sunday. We backed the 49ers as our top side play of the entire season last week so I obviously have plenty of respect for the Kyle Shanahan-led squad. With that being said, I feel this is the week to jump off as the Niners enter riding a 12-game winning streak but prepare to face what I feel has been and is the most complete team in the NFL this season. The calf injury to Niners RB Christian McCaffrey is certainly a concern, even if they do have plenty of depth at the position, not to mention other ways to attack the Eagles defense. My concern for San Francisco here is that Philadelphia has the type of pass defense that can all but erase a guy like WR Brandon Aiyuk and even TE George Kittle. Deebo Samuel is still going to get his, especially if McCaffrey is less than 100% healthy but I'm not convinced that will be enough. Offensively, the Eagles are well-positioned to eat with QB Jalen Hurts looking prolific-as-always in last Saturday's rout of the Giants and the WR duo of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith well-positioned to go off against a middle-of-the-road Niners pass defense. The injury to RB Tony Pollard absolutely derailed the Cowboys hopes of staging an upset of the Niners last Sunday. Here, I'm confident we'll see Eagles RB Miles Sanders have a productive afternoon to keep the San Francisco pass rush honest, noting also that Philadelphia possesses a truly elite offensive line, both in pass and run-blocking. This is a battle of two ultra-talented teams, both coming in playing their best football. I simply feel that the Eagles have a little more on both sides of the football and will ultimately book their ticket for Arizona on Sunday afternoon in the City of Brotherly Love. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers -3.5 | Top | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 105 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Dallas at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. While the 49ers have been on an incredible run, not to mention the fact they've been the best bet in the NFL since mid-November, I can't help but feel they're just scratching the surface and dare I say still undervalued as they head into the Divisional Round of the playoffs on Sunday. Yes, the Cowboys impressed in Monday's complete dismantling of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Tampa. However, that lopsided result had a lot to do with the inept nature of the Bucs, who by all accounts were nothing more than a middle-of-the-road team all season, benefiting from residing in a weak NFC South division. Tampa Bay didn't exactly throw a haymaker against what was admittedly a well-prepared Dallas squad that looked like a team on a mission after suffering an embarrassing loss on the road against Washington in the final week of the regular season. The Cowboys are in line for a 'shock to the system' here, however, as they stay on the road for a fourth straight game to face a 49ers team that is quite simply 'firing on all cylinders'. San Francisco took a punch in the first half against the Seahawks last Saturday and I'm glad they did. The fact is, the Niners have faced a fairly breezy schedule going all the way back to mid-November. A little bit of adversity wasn't the worst thing for them to face in the Wild Card round and I believe they're better for it. To say that the Niners are a difficult team to defend is putting it mildly. They have a multi-pronged attack that is unlikely anything we've seen in recent years and they've been taken to the next level by rookie QB Brock Purdy who continues to prove he is indeed the 'real deal'. The Cowboys have only really faced 'dink-and-dunk' type offenses over the last three games, so again I believe they're in for a bit of a reality check here. While I have a lot of respect for the Cowboys offense, I'm still not convinced they'll lean as heavily on RB Tony Pollard as they should, still bent on giving Ezekiel Elliott his share of the pie in an offense where he should realistically only play a bit part (in my opinion). QB Dak Prescott avoided the mistakes that had previously plagued him against the Bucs on Monday, but he was rarely under much duress in that contest. He's sure to face a lot more pressure against the 49ers elite defense here. The Niners have absolutely stamped out opposing running games this season and likely puts a whole lot more on Dak's plate - similar to what we saw in recent road games against the Titans and Commanders in which the Cowboys ultimately turned the football over five times (they didn't commit a single turnover in Monday's win in Tampa). The 49ers have forced at least one turnover in 10 consecutive games and two or more in eight of those contests. This is a rematch of last year's Wild Card game between these two teams in Dallas - a game the 49ers won by a 23-17 score. That final score was actually flattering to the Cowboys in my opinion. I expect San Francisco to ultimately pull away for a convincing victory and advance to the NFC Championship Game on Sunday. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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01-21-23 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 48 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday night in Philadelphia. The first meeting between these two teams was a blowout victory in favor of the Eagles, 48-22 in New York back in early December. The rematch wasn't all that notable as the Giants rested their starters in a much lower-scoring defeat. Here, I think we're in line for something in between with the total quite simply proving too high. On a positive note for the Giants, they'll have standout CB Adoree' Jackson on the field for this the third meeting between these two teams this season. Jackson obviously played a big role in last week's 'upset' win in Minnesota, helping stamp out Justin Jefferson's big-play potential. He'll look to do the same against Eagles WR A.J. Brown on Saturday, likely to mixed results. There's no denying the Giants are playing well up front with Kayvon Thibodeaux getting better as the season has gone on. On the flip side, the Eagles boast perhaps the league's best defensive front and should give the Giants offensive line fits all night long. Giants QB Daniel Jones was able to get loose on numerous occasions against the Vikings last week and found plenty of success through the air, just as he did in the teams' regular season matchup. This is a much different challenge, however, and I don't anticipate Jones being afforded a lot of time in the pocket, nor do I expect New York's lukewarm wide receiving corps to enjoy much open field. There is a path for the Giants offense to stay on the field and effectively shorten this game by picking their spots to run with Jones and also work the slot in Avonte Maddox's absence for the Eagles. I'm just not convinced we'll see the Giants end many drives with 7's on the board. We've certainly seen the Eagles jump ahead and then take the air out of the football at times this season. They have that type of offense that can control the football for long periods and I'm confident we'll see that as this game wears on. Running the football figures to be a key part of the Eagles offensive gameplan on Saturday after RB Miles Sanders picked up 155 yards and a pair of scores against the Giants earlier this season. New York can take some solace in the fact that it did effectively stamp out the Vikings ground attack last Sunday, albeit in a much different game script than they're likely to see on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams this season was the only meaningful one - as I mentioned the Giants rested their starters in the Week 18 rematch. That game saw a closing total of just 44.5 points. Of course, it also featured 70 actual points. I don't think we're in for another high-scoring affair here, however, as the Giants have done enough to instill confidence defensively and the return of Jackson has given them a boost against the pass. Note that since that 48-22 loss to the Eagles on December 11th, the Giants have given up 12, 27, 10, 22 and 24 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-15-23 | Giants v. Vikings OVER 48 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Minnesota at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. When these two teams met back on Christmas Eve they combined to score 51 points in a narrow 27-24 Giants victory. While we've seen a minor adjustment to the total in advance of this rematch, I don't believe it will prove to be enough to keep this one 'under' the total. This game once again pits two of the better and more aggressive offensive minds in the NFL today in head coaches Brian Daboll of the Giants and Kevin O'Connell of the Vikings. Over the course of the season, we saw the Giants offense evolve from a run-oriented, risk-averse unit to a far more aggressive, pass-heavy attack. Never was that more true than in the aforementioned game against the Vikings. In that contest, the G-Men threw the football 40+ times. That's not to say their ground game wasn't effective as well. They racked up 126 rush yards on only 21 attempts. While the Vikings bolstered their offense with the addition of TE T.J. Hockenson prior to the trade deadline, they elected to stand pat defensively and that could ultimately prove to be their downfall in the postseason. Strong safety Harrison Smith, arguably their best defender, continues to play hurt. They've had no answers for opposing passing games, nor have they been able to stop opposing running backs, both on the ground and through the air. I do have a lot of respect for the Giants defense but there's no denying this is a difficult matchup against a multi-faceted Vikings offense. As I mentioned, this has been an even more explosive Vikings offense since acquiring Hockenson from the Detroit. WR Justin Jefferson is as advertised, as is RB Dalvin Cook, who should once again feast on a Giants defense that has struggled to stop the run all season. New York does get back CB Adoree Jackson. It remains to be seen how effective he can be in his first game action since Week 11. Even facing blanket coverage in Week 16 against New York, Jefferson still went off to pace the Vikes offense. Expect a shootout here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-14-23 | Chargers -2 v. Jaguars | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points first half over Jacksonville at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I'm far more interested in backing the Chargers minus the short number in the first half rather than the full game in this one as head coach Brandon Staley's crunch-time coaching decisions have rightfully been called to question ever since he took over the gig. Here, I do think the Bolts have enough early advantages to take a lead into the locker room at halftime. Note that Los Angeles is 10-1 against the first half line when seeking revenge against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here after the Jaguars boat-raced the Chargers at SoFi Stadium earlier this season. Better still, the Chargers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the first half when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the same stretch. In that situation, they've outscored opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.8 points in the first half. Meanwhile, the Jags are a woeful 0-7 ATS against the first half line when playing at home after a division game over the last three seasons, outscored by 10.0 points on average in that spot. I like the way this matchup sets up on paper for the Chargers as the Jags haven't been particularly stout against the pass this season and have struggled in particular defending opposing running backs that can catch the football. Of course the Bolts have one of the best in that department in Austin Ekeler, who enters the playoffs on a red hot tear. The same goes for QB Justin Herbert, who had a fantastic final two regular season games, tossing four touchdown passes. It's a different story for Jags sophomore QB Trevor Lawrence. He struggled down the stretch, even in last Saturday's must-win game against the Titans, which the Jags did manage to pull out by the skin of their teeth. Take Los Angeles first half (10*). |
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01-08-23 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks offense has actually been struggling lately, despite last week's 23-6 win over the Jets here at home. The Rams down-trodden and injury-ravaged defense should be the cure for what ails them here, however. Teams have been running all over Los Angeles' defense since DT Aaron Donald and space-eater A'Shawn Robinson went down to injury. The Rams have given up 165, 138, 104 and 192 rush yards over their last four contests. That's not to say they've been any stronger against the pass either. Last week, the Chargers lit them up for 24-of-31 passing, good for 7.7 yards per pass attempt and two touchdowns. With all of his weapons at his disposal, Seahawks QB Geno Smith has the potential to go off in this one. The question becomes whether the Rams lukewarm offense can keep up in a potential shootout. They did find some success early in last week's game against the Chargers but once the margin got too large, they essentially took the air out of the football. I do expect a more competitive affair here, noting that the Rams will be looking to avenge an early-December home loss against the division-rival Seahawks. Keep in mind, Seattle hasn't won consecutive matchups in this series since 2016-17. Take the over (10*). |
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01-07-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders +9.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I simply feel the Raiders are a dangerous team with nothing to lose here in Week 18 of the regular season. We certainly saw plenty of fight from Las Vegas last Sunday as it gave San Francisco all it could handle but ultimately lost by a field goal for the second straight week. QB Jarrett Stidham gave the Raiders offense some life and I think we'll see some carry-over effect from last week's performance here. The Chiefs are just 6-10 ATS on the season, including 3-5 ATS away from home. Meanwhile, the Raiders check in an impressive 5-2 ATS here at Allegiant Stadium. While Kansas City has won four straight games, three of those contests could have gone either way. Who knows what the future holds for the Raiders franchise on many fronts, but here I look for them to give the division-rival Chiefs all they can handle in the regular season finale for both teams. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
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01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants -5.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Colts are going to be in tough playing on the road on a short week with a seemingly lame duck head coach in Jeff Saturday not to mention a journeyman quarterback nearing the end of his career in Nick Foles. Nothing worked for the Colts in Monday's loss to the Chargers - on either side of the football. Things aren't likely to get any better here as they hit the road to face the playoff-hungry Giants who are coming off a disappointing last-second loss against the Vikings last Sunday. Credit New York for hanging in there despite the red hot Minnesota offense racking up 270 yards through the air on 34 Kirk Cousins pass completions. While it never feels all that comfortable laying more than a field goal with an offensively-limited team such as the Giants, the fact is they've been winning by margin. Since opening the season with consecutive wins by a field goal or less, their last six victories have come by 8, 5, 4, 6, 8 and 8 points. That's four out of six victories by more than the spread we're dealing with this week (at the time of writing) with the other two coming against potential playoff-bound teams in the Packers and Ravens. I like the fact that Giants RB Saquon Barkley should be fresh for this one after a limited workload last Sunday in Minnesota (the Giants ran the football 21 times - their lowest rush attempt total since Thanksgiving in Dallas). Also helping New York's cause is the absence of one of Indianapolis' best defenders in slot corner Kenny Moore. Take New York (10*). |
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01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants UNDER 39 | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. New York is coming off a relatively high-scoring affair in an indoor setting in Minnesota last Sunday. The Giants have seen consecutive games go 'over' the total only once previously this season though, that coming in a two-game stretch that saw them face the Lions and Cowboys - two distinctly different opponents than they'll face today in the down-trodden Colts. Indianapolis had a tough enough time just getting plays off let alone scoring with Nick Foles at the helm on Monday night against the Chargers. The Colts ran the ball only 14 times and threw it just 29 times in that 20-3 defeat. Needless to say, they'll be interested in shortening this game as much as they can to stay competitive on Sunday. The Giants would be wise to employ a similar gameplan given they've managed to win just once in their last six contests (they've played much better than that record would indicate going 4-2 ATS over that stretch). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Giants having lost four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 32.0 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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12-24-22 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 47.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 39 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Saturday. It seems that the Eagles intentions are clear heading into this one as they're expected to give QB Gardner Minshew the start after Jalen Hurts injured his shoulder in last Sunday's win in Chicago. While it doesn't sound like Hurts' injury is all that serious, he's likely to sit as Philadelphia owns a comfortable three-game cushion atop the NFC East. While there are some that believe backup Minshew can keep the train rolling offensively, I'm not in that group. I don't expect the Eagles to put a whole lot on Minshew's plate here. The Eagles still have enough offensive playmakers to churn out some long, clock-eating drives but I question how many of those drives they can end with seven points on the board. The Cowboys probably aren't all that interested in getting involved in another shootout here - not after last week's disappointing overtime loss in Jacksonville. They've now seen the 'over' cash in four straight and six of their last seven games overall but I look for that streak to end here. Note that the first meeting between these two teams totalled 43 points. That was with Cooper Rush at quarterback for the Cowboys of course. I do think we see Dallas scale back its offense a bit here after turning the football over five times in the last two games. While Philadelphia is without Hurts on offense, its defense remains healthy and poised to shoulder the load here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-22-22 | Jaguars v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Jacksonville at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. While the presence of Zach Wilson under center will keep a lot of bettors off the Jets on Thursday night, I'm not in that group as I expect them to take full advantage of this winnable in-conference matchup in primetime. Last Sunday's game had a dream setup for the Jets as they hosted the Lions who happened to be in a prime letdown spot. New York had every opportunity to win that game but ultimately fell apart late, allowing Detroit to sneak through the back door with a late touchdown. Here, I don't believe Jacksonville will be so fortunate. The Jags of course pulled off a stunning home upset over the Cowboys last Sunday, rallying from down big early to steal a victory in overtime. That win didn't come without a price, however, as the Jags lost key offensive lineman Cam Robinson and now go against a fierce Jets defense that I'm still not sure gets enough praise or credit for all it has accomplished this season. The Jags offense is undoubtedly on the rise but here, on a short week, off that massive performance last Sunday, I can't help but feel a letdown is in order. I mentioned the presence of Jets QB Zach Wilson earlier. He's starting out of necessity only as Mike White remains sidelined. I actually thought Wilson had one of his better games against the Lions last Sunday, even if he did make a couple of boneheaded mistakes. Here, I don't think we'll see the Jets heap too much on Wilson's plate. The Jags don't defend the pass particularly well, nor do they do a great job of containing opposing running backs, both on the ground and in the short passing game. Note that Jacksonville will be without one of its best pass rushers in first overall draft pick Travon Walker for this one. I believe this line will prove too short in favor of the home side. Take New York (10*). |
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12-19-22 | Rams v. Packers -7 | Top | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Credit the Rams for rallying, led by QB Baker Mayfield, a week ago Thursday, stunning the Raiders with a pair of late touchdowns to steal a victory at home. That win had more to do with Las Vegas taking its foot off the gas than anything else - something I don't expect the Packers to do in front of their home faithful at Lambeau Field on Monday. It's easy to forget Green Bay actually won (and covered) in its most recent game two weeks ago in Chicago. That solid performance against a 'tough out' in the Bears proved that the Pack haven't given up on the season. In fact, I believe their trajectory is pointed up with their offense finally coming around and well-positioned to feast against an Aaron Donald-less Rams defense on Monday. RB Aaron Jones has been dealing with a multitude of injuries but coming off the bye week should be as healthy as he's been in quite some time, and he stands to benefit more than anyone on the Packers offense from the absence of Donald and key run-stopper A'Shawn Robinson. All of the talk last week was about Baker Mayfield somehow absorbing enough of the Rams offensive playbook in just two days (he had signed with the team earlier in the week). Now he's had a little more time to digest the Rams offensive scheme so many expect him to come out firing on Monday. I expect precisely the opposite, noting that Mayfield is still operating behind a poor run and pass blocking offensive line (mostly due to injuries) and with a limited group of weapons around him. Green Bay, despite its overall struggles this season, has remained stout against the pass and should be able to snuff out any thought of Mayfield stringing together a second straight solid performance. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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12-18-22 | Eagles v. Bears UNDER 48.5 | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. While this game is being pegged as a potential shootout, I believe there's a good chance we see both offenses frustrated on Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field. The Eagles are in a prime letdown spot offensively after scoring a season-high 48 points in last Sunday's rout of the Giants (we won with Philadelphia in that game). The Bears come out fresh off their bye week but with an offense that has regressed, scoring 24, 10 and 19 points over the last three games since putting up 30 or more points in consecutive games earlier in November. The 'over' has actually cashed in each of the Bears last seven contests but this game matches the highest total we've seen over that stretch. For the Eagles, this is the highest total we've seen since October 9th in Arizona - a game that ended up reaching just 37 total points. Both defenses should be familiar with what they'll face on Sunday as quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields are two of the most mobile pivots in the league and the defenses see them operate every day at practice. I believe there's a good chance this develops into a bit of a chess match on Sunday afternoon in the Windy City. Take the under (10*). |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills OVER 43 | Top | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
AFC Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two AFC East foes this season but probably deserved a better fate after that game got off to a quick start but stalled out thanks to a number of failed red zone trips from the Bills. Miami played keep-away in the south Florida heat on that day in late September, needing to do so to keep its banged-up defense off the field as much as possible. I expect a much different story to unfold in Buffalo on Saturday. Miami has been held down offensively in consecutive losses to the 49ers and Chargers but I expect it to 'get right' here. The Bills are going to be without key run-stopper Jordan Phillips while Matt Milano is banged-up as well. That should open the door for the Fins to restore some offensive balance and ultimately feed Buffalo's front-line a heavy dose of RB Raheem Mostert. The success of Miami's ground game figures to open things up for Tua Tagovailoa and its suddenly dormant passing attack. I'm never all that worried about where the points will come from when it comes to the Bills. They were held in check for the most part against a tough Jets defense last Sunday but should bounce back in sling-shot fashion here. Miami's defense has been good for stretches but has been on the field for an awful lot of football over the last two weeks (thanks to the ineptitude of the offense) and now faces the unenviable task of containing the Bills on a short week, not to mention on the road for the third straight game. This is a blow-up spot for Bills WR Stefon Diggs as Dolphins top corner Xavien Howard hasn't looked right all season due to various injuries. We're seeing a sharp drop from the total in the first meeting this season (that total was set in the low-50's). I don't believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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12-15-22 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I think a lot of bettors are talking themselves into backing the home divisional underdog in Seattle on Thursday but I feel it's the wrong move. I don't believe 49ers QB Brock Purdy is going to be a 'one-and-done' story. Yes, he is probably getting too much hype off last Sunday's monster first half against the Buccaneers. That doesn't mean that he can't enjoy continued success, however. The fact is, the Niners gameplan should be focused around getting RB Christian McCaffrey the ball here anyway as the Seahawks have been dismal against the run and could be without one of their best run-stoppers in DT Al Woods after he suffered an achilles injury in last Sunday's loss to the Panthers. The Niners have injury issues of their own, of course, most notably to do-it-all WR Deebo Samuel. This is a deep offense, however, and I'm confident we'll see guys like George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and even Jauan Jennings step up in Samuel's absence. While San Francisco has yielded plenty of yardage to opposing wide receivers this season, that's really only because it has been playing from ahead so much and opponents have bailed on their ground attacks after gaining little headway. How about this - the Niners last six opponents have run for 56, 51, 67, 63, 33 and 69 yards. While I am high on Seahawks rookie RB Kenneth Walker, who is expected to return from injury here, I'm not convinced he'll do anything other than run into the Niners line over and over again on Thursday. Seattle allowed a whopping 30 points to the lowly Panthers last week. That's notable when you consider the Niners haven't allowed 30 points over their last three-and-a-half games. In fact, the Seahawks have yielded 93 points over their last three contests while San Francisco hasn't given up that many points over its last six games combined. I did consider playing the Niners on the moneyline here given the fact that we have seen a number of games decided by a field goal or less between these division rivals over the years. However, noting that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS in games where the line closed at a field goal or less involving these teams this season, I'll confidently lay the points with the visitors here. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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12-11-22 | Browns v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think we see a 'slingshot effect' from the Browns offense here in QB Deshaun Watson's second game back under center following a nearly two-year absence from game action. Watson didn't look good against an awful Texans defense last week, but Cleveland still found a way to manufacture 27 points and I do think that bodes well going forward. This is a game where the Browns likely find themselves playing from behind in which case we should see them open the playbook far more than they did last week against Houston. The Bengals offense figures to smash in this spot as they catch an already struggling Browns defense without key run-stopping LB Sione Takitaki. All indications are that RB Joe Mixon will be back on the field and of course Ja'Marr Chase is back healthy as well, ready to go off on a vulnerable Browns secondary. While division games often lead to tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affairs, that hasn't been the case in this particular matchup, at least not in Cincinnati, where the last four meetings have produced 57, 71, 56 and 55 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 52 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 34 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. With Minnesota coming off consecutive 'over' results and Detroit fresh off a high-scoring result of its own last week at home against the Jaguars, I feel this total will prove too high as these two NFC North opponents square off on Sunday afternoon in the Motor City. The Vikings offense really has nowhere to go but down after scoring 60 points combined in consecutive home wins over the Patriots and Jets over the last two weeks. While Detroit's defense was down-trodden earlier in the campaign, this is a unit that has improved as the season has gone on, allowing just 60 points over its last three games combined. Meanwhile, Minnesota has yielded more than 26 points only twice this season with those two poor performances coming in consecutive weeks against the Bills and Cowboys back in November. The Vikes 'D' should be brimming with confidence after saving last week's victory over the Jets with a goal-line stand in the waning seconds. We'll certainly look to fade the Lions offense here after it put up 40 or more points for the second time this season in last week's win over the Jags. The last time Detroit scored 40+ points it followed it up by getting shut out in New England the very next week. While another shutout certainly isn't likely here, I do think both defenses come up with enough stops to keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-08-22 | Raiders -6 v. Rams | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We actually backed the injury-riddled Rams in Kansas City two weeks ago - a game in which they did sniff out an ATS and ultimately delivered a 'push' for most bettors. They followed that up with a loss but cover against the Seahawks last Sunday in a game that featured a misleading final score in my opinion. Were it not for Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker going down to injury early in that contest, I do think Seattle would have run up the score. Note that it scored touchdowns on two of its first three offensive drives before Walker was forced to exit the game and the Seahawks balance disappeared. This Rams defense is a mess without DTs Aaron Donald and A'Shawn Robinson, unable to generate much push or clog up the middle. The Raiders have precisely the type of offense that can expose the L.A. defense with RB Josh Jacobs running as well as anyone in the league, even if he is a little nicked-up (few players are 100% healthy at this stage of the season). With corner Jalen Ramsey having a miserable time on an island on this Rams defense, Raiders WR Davante Adams figures to smash in this spot. In last Sunday's game, Seahawks WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf went off, hauling in a combined 17 catches for 255 yards and two scores. The sky is the limit for Adams here. On the flip side, the Raiders defense is rounding into form at the right time with the duo of Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby terrorizing opposing offensive lines. Of course, the Rams boast one of the league's worst o-lines with QB John Wolford absorbing four sacks last week and now dealing with a neck injury, potentially leaving this game in the hands of newly-signed QB Baker Mayfield, who is with his third different team since last season and has had about two days to learn the playbook. While I don't love backing a team that has reeled off three consecutive ATS wins at this stage of the season, I feel we can confidently back the Raiders against a Rams squad that is already looking ahead to next year. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
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12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 41.5 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll stick with what works here and call for another low-scoring start between the Saints and Buccaneers on Monday night in Tampa. The first time these two teams met this season they combined to score three, yes three, first half points (New Orleans led 3-0 at the break). In fact, the first half 'under' has gone an incredible 10-1 in all Bucs games this season with the only outlier being a wild, high-scoring affair against the Chiefs in Week 4. New Orleans has scored a grand total of 23 first half points in its last four games combined. You would have to go back six games to find the last time it allowed more than 14 points in the first half and that's only happened three times in 12 games so far this season. As for Tampa Bay, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time it put up more than 14 first half points. In fact, it has been held to 10 or fewer first half points in four of its last five contests. Alvin Kamara is one of the Saints lone weapons on offense and he faces a tough matchup here given the fact that the Bucs have all but stamped out opposing running backs, both on the ground and through the air this season. Only one team has allowed fewer catches to opposing running backs, which is obviously Kamara's bread-and-butter. While the Bucs offense showed signs of life last week in Cleveland, this is still very much an under-achieving group facing a revenge-minded Saints squad on Monday. Tom Brady has posted unremarkable results in three of five career matchups against Dennis Allen-coached defenses and just lost one of his best offensive linemen in Tristan Wirfs to an ankle injury. We'll play the first half 'under' only in this spot given the Saints could turn to QB Jameis Winston for a spark against his old team should Andy Dalton struggle early on. Take the first half under (10*). |
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12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout potential as the Texans look to avenge last year's 31-21 loss to the Browns. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in last year's meeting but I don't believe the move is warranted. It has everything to do with the fact that the Texans have been involved in a string of relatively low-scoring games with the 'under' cashing in each of their last three contests. The Browns posted an 'under' result last week as well as they pulled out a 23-17 overtime win over the Bucs. Here, Cleveland's offense figures to get a boost from the return of QB Deshaun Watson. While Watson is dealing with returning from a long layoff, he draws an ideal matchup against a Texans defense that has seen things go from bad to worse. Houston checks in having allowed 29, 24, 23 and 30 points over its last four games, getting ethered by both the pass and the run. The Browns held up alright defensively on paper last week against the Bucs, but this is still a vulnerable unit that doesn't do anything particularly well. The Texans will give QB Kyle Allen another start in place of an ineffective Davis Mills. Allen was at least in sync with WR Nico Collins last Sunday, hitting him on six of nine targets. WR Brandin Cooks is expected to miss this game but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he's been virtually invisible this season. RB Dameon Pierce remains the focal point of the Texans offense and he should bounce back with a full workload after being taken out of the gameplan thanks to Houston trailing big early last week in Miami. The Browns have been touched up for 4.8 yards per rush attempt this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans +8 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
AFC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a game that the Texans have likely been waiting for just as long as the Browns have as Cleveland gives former-Texan Deshaun Watson his long-awaited first start with his new team following a long suspension. This is a prime letdown spot for Cleveland after it pulled out an improbable 23-17 overtime win over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last Sunday. I'm not ready to start believing in this 4-7 team just yet, however, noting they had lost consecutive games by a combined margin of 30 points prior to that upset victory. Cleveland has won just once on the road this season and that victory came by only two points in Carolina way back in Week 1. Here, the Browns are laying more than a touchdown. Houston is riding a season-high six-game losing streak and has dropped the cash in a season-high three consecutive games as well. I do feel that QB Kyle Allen gives them a better chance to win than Davis Mills at this point. The reality is the offense should run through RB Dameon Pierce and he figures to eat against a Browns defense that has struggled mightily against the run this season. Note that this is also a 'revenge game' for Houston after it dropped a 31-21 decision in Cleveland last year. There are very few spots where I would recommend backing the Texans the rest of the way, but this just happens to be one of them. Take Houston (10*). |
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12-04-22 | Commanders v. Giants +2.5 | Top | 20-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Commanders have won three games in a row to climb into the playoff conversation in the NFC. I expect a letdown here, however, as they hit the road to face the Giants on Sunday. Washington has benefited from a 7-3 turnover margin in its favor over its last three contests. Here, I can't help but feel we'll see the Giants wreak havoc defensively against Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke, who I do feel has been walking the thin line between success and failure over the last few games. Getting back Evan Neal on the offensive line should pay immediate dividends for Giants RB Saquon Barkley, who has admittedly struggled in recent weeks. Once again, not much will be asked of QB Daniel Jones. The hope here is that he's tasked with playing with a lead rather than from behind as we saw last week against Dallas. Note that Washington is a long-term loser in the role of favorite, going 70-103 ATS. Meanwhile, New York has delivered the cash 11 of the last 13 times it has come off a Thursday game, as is the case here. Take New York (10*). |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New England at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Bills Thanksgiving Day victory in Detroit last Thursday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they stay on the road to face the division-rival Patriots in Foxborough. While Buffalo has still put up 30, 31 and 28 points over its last three contests, it hasn't looked totally in-sync. Whether that has to do with Josh Allen's injury is up for debate. With the Patriots having had an extra couple of days to prepare for this tall task, I do think we'll see their defense, which is still underrated at this late stage of the season in my opinion, keep Allen and Co. in check, relatively-speaking at least. I'm willing to chalk up last week's allowance of 33 points in Minnesota as an aberration as the Pats suffered a 'shock to the system' of sorts after facing the Jets (twice) and Colts over a three-week span heading in. I think we see their defense bounce back here. On the flip side, the Pats have gone fairly conservative offensively ever since Mac Jones orchestrated a turnover-fest against the Bears in a Monday nighter in late October. Since then, the Pats have turned the football over just twice in four games, without a single TO in their last two. While the Bills are known for their offense, they can play elite defense as well and while losing Von Miller to an injury hurts, the rest of the defense is as healthy as it's been in quite some time off the extended week. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in Bills road games this season. We've also seen the 'under' go 6-1 with Buffalo coming off consecutive games totalling 50 or more points over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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11-27-22 | Packers +6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I don't know how you can be all that high on the Eagles right now as they enter Sunday's contest off three consecutive ATS losses after narrowly escaping with a 17-16 win in Indianapolis last Sunday. The time to fade the Packers was last Thursday - fresh off a huge come-from-behind upset win over the Cowboys - which we did with the Titans in that game. Now everyone has once again written off Aaron Rodgers and company in a spot where I believe they can give the Eagles all they can handle. Note that Green Bay laid waste to Philadelphia by a 30-16 score the last time they met less than two years ago. In that contest, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts completed 5-of-12 passes for 109 yards, one touchdown and one interception while running five times for 29 yards. Interestingly, TE Dallas Goedert led the Eagles in catches and receiving yards in that game. He's now sidelined, leaving the tight end position to a duo that includes Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra. Obviously Hurts is a much better quarterback now than he was two years ago. With that being said, I don't believe there's any sort of intimidation factor at play, certainly not after the Commanders and Colts bottled up this Eagles offense over the last two weeks. The Packers are an interesting study in many regards, still boasting plenty of talent on both sides of the football, and perhaps a chip on their shoulder in the 'spoiler' role down the stretch. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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11-27-22 | Rams +16 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-26 | Push | 0 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Yeah, the Rams are going nowhere this season. Everyone knows that. They're also missing most of their key contributors on offense - a unit that is almost unrecognizable at this point. The Chiefs know that as well and off a hard-fought, come-from-behind, last minute victory over the Chargers last week, I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown here. Kansas City doesn't run away and hide on the opposition this season. You could say only two of their games have been true blowouts - a 44-21 win in Arizona way back in Week 1 and a 44-23 rout of the 49ers on October 23rd. Here, they'll be facing a Rams team that has allowed more than 27 points just once all season, and they'll do so with their own injury issues. Already thin at the wide receiver position, they're still without Mecole Hardman and now Kadarius Toney is banged-up as well. Note that Kansas City has allowed 17 or more points in all 10 games so far this season so there's little reason to expect it to completely shut down the Rams offense here. I do like Los Angeles' chances of churning out some long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game on Sunday and that certainly works in our favor catching north of two touchdowns. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. Last Thanksgiving, we saw the Cowboys fall in a wild, high-scoring shootout against the Raiders (in overtime) but I expect a much different story to unfold in this year's instalment as Dallas draws a divisional foe in the New York Giants. Of course, the Giants allowed a season-high 31 points in last Sunday's home loss against the Lions. While they're dealing with some key injuries in the secondary, I do expect them to at the very least do a better job of defending the Cowboys than the Vikings did last Sunday (we won with Dallas and the 'under' in that game). The presence of DT Leonard Williams has certainly made a difference for New York's run defense, noting that it has held opponents to 4.3 yards per rush over the last three games (5.3 ypr allowed this season). Don't count on the Giants abandoning the run the way the Vikings did against Dallas last Sunday (that was largely game-script related as they fell behind big early). While RB Saquon Barkley hasn't been his usual dominant self in recent weeks, the G-Men will still want to get all they can out of him in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives to effectively shorten this contest as double-digit underdogs. New York, unlike Minnesota, also has a mobile quarterback that can help in minimizing the effectiveness of Dallas' ferocious pass rush. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Giants have come off a game in which they allowed 31 or more points, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 31.5 points in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-22 | Bills v. Lions UNDER 54.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. This is the highest posted total on this week's NFL board and I believe it will prove too high at Ford Field on Thursday afternoon. The Bills offense 'should' have its way with a weak Lions defense in this one but I can't help but feel their ceiling is somewhat capped by QB Josh Allen's nagging elbow injury. He's coming off a poor performance against a very beatable Browns defense last Sunday and now plays on a short week, knowing he'll need to be somewhat cautious against an opportunistic Lions defense that has forced seven turnovers in the last three games. With injury concerns on their offensive line, I'm not expecting much from the Lions offense here. Speaking of capped ceilings, that's precisely what we've seen from Detroit's offense with QB Jared Goff at the helm. Note that while the Lions have scored 31 points in consecutive games, they've completed just 14, 19 and 17 passes for 137, 228 and 165 passing yards over their last three contests. I can't help but feel the optimal gameplan here involves making running backs Jamaal Williams and DeAndre Swift the focal point on Thursday afternoon, in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives to effectively shorten proceedings as a two-score underdog. Detroit's recent scoring spike has also had something to do with the fact that it has turned the football over just once over its last four games. It will need to be cautious here, however, noting that Buffalo has forced at least one turnover in seven straight games. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month (1H). My selection is on the first half 'under' between San Francisco and Arizona at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers have generally been slow starters offensively this season, scoring more than 14 points in the first half only once through their first seven games. While we won with the first half 'over' in last week's eventual victory over the Chargers, I won't hesitate to go the other way as they head to Mexico to face the Cardinals on Monday night. Arizona came up with its best defensive effort in weeks in a 27-17 victory over the Rams last week. I actually don't mind Colt McCoy at quarterback given the team's current state as he doesn't tend to stretch out plays and force the offensive line to block for extended periods the same way Kyler Murray does (McCoy also lacks Murray's elusiveness and mobility of course). This is obviously a favorable matchup for the 49ers vaunted defense but I do think the Cards can do enough to extend some drives and eat some clock early on. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense remains somewhat capped in terms of its ceiling with QB Jimmy Garropolo at the helm. My concern for the full game 'under' in this one is that the Cards defense wears down and ends up getting exposed by San Francisco's ground attack and middle-of-the-field passing attack as the game goes on. Early, I do think the Cards can hang, however. Here, we'll note that the first half 'under' is 8-2 with the Niners coming off four or five wins in their last six games over the last three seasons and 5-1 with the Cards following up consecutive 'over' results over the same stretch. Take the first half under (10*). |
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11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 52 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The first matchup between these teams came back in Week 2 and was not surprisingly pegged as a shootout but fizzled somewhat as the Chiefs pulled out a 27-24 victory that stayed just 'under' the total. While both offenses are missing or dealing with some banged-up key pieces, I believe we're in for a true back-and-forth shootout in Sunday night's rematch. Kansas City's offense keeps rolling along with a 'next man up' philosophy, particularly at the wide receiver position where QB Patrick Mahomes serves as a true talent-elevator. The Chiefs backfield has been a revolving door this season as well but should feast on a Chargers defense that hasn't been able to even slow opposing running games this season and now deals with a cluster of injuries along its defensive line. Los Angeles is expected to have wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back on the field on Sunday. Regardless whether they're 100% healthy, their presence alone should give the offense a much-needed boost after it stalled in the second half against the 49ers last week. QB Justin Herbert has fared exceptionally well against this Chiefs defense in recent years and should be in for another boxscore-stuffing performance on Sunday night. Given Kansas City's tendency to allow opposing running backs to get loose in the short passing game, Chargers RB Austin Ekeler sets up well to go off in this matchup as well. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 in the Chargers last nine games following a road loss, resulting in an average total of 55.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 48.5 | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 50 h 27 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Most have this game projected as a shootout between two of the NFC's elite teams in the friendly confines of U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. I'm not so easily convinced. Both teams are coming off poor defensive performances last week with the Cowboys coming away with an overtime loss against the down-trodden Packers and the Vikings coming from behind to defeat the Super Bowl-contending Bills, also in overtime. While Minnesota's defense continues to give up a ton of yardage to opposing offenses, it has done a reasonable job of limiting points, and more specifically touchdowns. Note that last week marked the first time all season the Vikings had yielded more than 26 points in a game. They haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since a three-game 'over' streak from Weeks 3 through 5. The Cowboys have one of the better defenses in the league but haven't shown it in the last couple of games against the Bears and Packers. That's been somewhat game-script dependent as they've been playing from ahead most of the way (something they don't necessarily project to do here in this near pk'em priced contest). Note that Dallas enters this game leading the NFL in sacks per game and only two teams have held the opposition to fewer yards per pass play. While you can run on these Cowboys, it seems that opponents are rarely able to resist the urge to test their aggressive pass defenders, often leading to negative results. Here, we'll note that the Cowboys have checked in as a road favorite of a field goal or less only twice over the last three seasons and both of those games stayed 'under' the total. The 'under' is also 9-4 in the Vikings last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous contest and 25-12 the last 37 times they've played at home after winning six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 42.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-20-22 | Lions +3 v. Giants | Top | 31-18 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Lions suddenly have a good thing going after delivering a home win over the Packers and a come-from-behind road victory over the Bears in consecutive weeks. Now they head to the Meadowlands to face a Giants team that I still consider a 'paper tiger' even as they sit at an impressive 7-2 nine games into the campaign. Last week was a good spot to back the Giants. They ultimately covered by the narrowest of margins but really had no business winning that game as their offense did virtually nothing while the underdog Texans marched into the red zone time and time again but simply couldn't finish drives with touchdowns. Here, I'm not sure New York will be so fortunate. The G-Men have been gashed for 5.4 yards per rush this season with no easy fix in sight. There's certainly a path for the Lions to effectively shorten this game with an offense that's more than capable of staying on the field for extended stretches. Defensively, the Lions have their warts but the Giants offensive ceiling is always capped thanks to its one-dimensional nature. RB Saquon Barkley will get his but at some point in this game, I expect QB Daniel Jones to be called upon to be a difference-maker. I'm not convinced he comes through, noting that New York has totalled fewer than 20 pass completions in four straight games and has topped out at a pitiful 213 passing yards in a game this season. Take Detroit (10*). |
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11-14-22 | Commanders +11 v. Eagles | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. One thing we know when it comes to the Commanders (or the Football Team as I still prefer to call them) is they love to play for their quarterback Taylor Heinecke. The same goes for head coach Ron Rivera - the very definition of a 'player's coach'. While it's been another trying season in Washington, winning only four of nine games to date, this team continues to play competitive football, going 2-0-1 ATS since Heinecke took over for an ineffective Carson Wentz. The first matchup between these two teams was no contest as the Eagles rolled to a 24-8 victory in Washington. I did like the way the Commanders defense played in that contest, however, and really all season long, only allowing more than 25 points on one occasion. You would have to go back six games to find the last time they gave up more than 21 points. Needless to say that's worth noting given the lofty pointspread here. Philadelphia is in danger of coming out a little sleepy here in my opinion, still undefeated on the season and having not played since a week ago Thursday, when it was never really challenged in a 29-17 win in Houston. Note that the Eagles took last year's meeting between these two teams here in Philadelphia by 'only' 10 points. I say 'only' because Washington couldn't have played much worse in that game, gaining only 63 rushing yards on 21 attempts while completing 20-of-31 passes for 174 yards. The Eagles racked up 238 rushing yards and 281 passing yards in that contest. Again, they won by only 10 points. I'm confident the revenge-minded Commanders can close the gap in many regards on Monday and ultimately give the Eagles a bit of a scare at the very least. Only twice in the last three seasons have we seen the Eagles come off five or six ATS wins in their last seven games and on both occasions they failed to cover the spread in their next game. That's the situation here and I look for the Commanders to stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers -7.5 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. While the Chargers inexplicably enter this game with the superior overall record to that of the 49ers, I don't believe they're the better team, at least not given all of the injury blows they've been dealt. The Niners have had their share of key injuries as well but their depth has shone through and they're off their bye week on Sunday, set up in a smash spot offensively. I say this is a smash spot because the Chargers have been horrid against the run, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush. Needless to say, the Niners can run the football as well as any team in the league, especially with RB Christian McCaffrey even more acclimated with the offense off the bye. I'm also convinced the Niners can get creative with their passing attack in this matchup as well. We've seen the Chargers frustratingly stray away at times from their best all-around offensive player, RB Austin Ekeler, at least in terms of their ground attack. Playing from behind doesn't suit this team particularly well missing its top two receiving threats in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Even against an injury-plagued Falcons defense last Sunday, the Chargers were only able to muster 20 points on 245 passing yards (those came on 43 pass attempts). Take San Francisco (10*). |
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11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I believe this sets up as a smash spot for the 49ers offense against a Chargers defense that has been plagued by a number of key injuries and absolutely shredded by opposing ground attacks, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush this season. Coming off their bye week and with all of their weapons healthy, including all-world o-lineman Trent Williams, the potential is there for Kyle Shanahan's offense to go off in this spot. I'll play the first half 'over' only as I do think there's a good chance the game becomes lopsided, in which case the Chargers would likely stray away from their effective ground game with RB Austin Ekeler while the 49ers could elect to take the air out of the football. The Niners opened the season with their first four games totalling just 20, 10, 20 and 20 first half points. Since then, their last three contests have reached 35, 27 and 24 points in the first half. Relatively high-scoring first halves have been commonplace for the Chargers this season as their games have reached 17, 23, 34, 38, 23, 38 and 24 points in the first 30 minutes. We can't ignore the Niners defensive injuries, which are numerous, opening the door for the Chargers to at least scheme up positive plays early in this contest. Again, my concern is that the visitors get forced to move away from a more balanced attack as the game progresses, noting that they're without their two top receivers in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Take the first half over (10*). |
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11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Texans aren't shying away from handing rookie RB Dameon Pierce a heavy workload as the centerpiece of their offense and that should pay dividends against a Giants defense that has given up a whopping 5.4 yards per rush this season. Houston's offense also gets back underrated WR Nico Collins for this one while it remains to be seen whether Brandin Cooks will return to the field or not. Regardless, I do think the Texans can make some headway, likely playing catch-up most of the day on Sunday. Speaking of bad run defenses, Houston has arguably been even worse than New York in that department. No team has given up more rushing yards or rushing touchdowns this season. That opens the door for another monster performance from Giants RB Saquon Barkley here. Of course, the Giants offense goes as Barkley goes and off their bye week I'm confident they'll get back on track here. Note that prior to losing 27-13 in Seattle last time out (we won with the Seahawks in that game), New York had scored 20+ points in four straight games. Even with a limited passing game, there's reason to believe Daniel Jones can have a one-off breakout performance against a Texans pass defense that has been flamed for 48-of-64 passing over their last three contests. Take the over (10*). |
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11-13-22 | Browns +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Browns seem like they're always good for one stunner of an upset road win each season and I think this could be it on Sunday in Miami. We successfully faded the Dolphins last Sunday as they won but didn't cover against the Bears in Chicago. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well again as I feel the Browns match up well in a number of areas. There's still time for a bit of a quarterback controversy in Cleveland in advance of Deshaun Watson's impending return to the field in Week 13. I haven't always been high on QB Jacoby Brissett but he did win me over when he last took the field with the Browns in their impressive Monday night win over division-rival Cincinnati two weeks ago. The bye week helped Cleveland get healthier with RG Wyatt Teller among those returning for this week's game - giving a boost to an already terrific Browns ground attack. On the defensive side of the football, Cleveland is expected to have CB Denzel Ward back. While the Browns don't have anyone capable of neutralizing Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, even if he does go off (again) there's no guarantee Miami can score enough, or make enough stops on defense to secure the cover. The Miami defense continues to play on without three key pass stoppers in corners Byron Jones and Nik Needham and safety Brandon Jones. Xavien Howard has been able to stay in the lineup but he's dealt with injuries to both groins all season long. Here, we'll note that Miami is a woeful 6-21 ATS in its last 27 home games coming off a win by three points or less, outscored by 4.4 points on average in that situation. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints UNDER 47 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half ‘under’ between Baltimore and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. With both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense and both confident off wins last week, not looking to relinquish the momentum here, I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring first half on Monday night in New Orleans. Note that the first half ‘under’ is a perfect 6-0 with Baltimore coming off three ATS losses in its last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average first half total of just 13.3 points. Meanwhile, the first half ‘under’ is 11-3 with the Saints listed as an underdog over the last two seasons, which is also the situation here, leading to an average first half total of 19.9 points in that spot. Without Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman - their two biggest offensive threats apart from Lamar Jackson - I look for the Ravens to take a more methodical approach on offense, at least early in this game. Meanwhile, the Saints will be wary of QB Andy Dalton's tendency to turn the ball over (remembering that ugly Thursday night loss in Arizona two games back) against an opportunistic Ravens defense. I'm confident we'll see the Saints offense run through RB Alvin Kamara for the most part on Monday, noting that the Ravens have yielded 4.4 yards per rush this season. New Orleans best chance at winning this game likely comes from churning out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten the game and give Jackson as few opportunities as possible to make an impact. Take the first half ‘under’ (10*). |
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11-06-22 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Not to oversimplify things but I don't think the Cardinals are a very good football team. Meanwhile, Seattle remains as underrated a team as you'll find in the NFL, even off last week's impressive win over the Giants. The Seahawks have already handled the Cardinals once and while Arizona now has WR DeAndre Hopkins at its disposal, I'm not convinced his presence is enough to turn the tide in this rematch. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker has been a massive get for the Seahawks with the injury to Rashaad Penny proving to be a blessing in disguise. That's not to mention the departure of Russell Wilson which has given Geno Smith a run at redemption and he's taken full advantage. Plus we have a Seattle defense that is seemingly getting stronger with each passing week. Take Seattle (10*). |
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11-06-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 49.5 | Top | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
NFC Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Lions home loss to the Dolphins last week and were fortunate to do so as Detroit's offense was non-existent for the entire second half. Here, both teams know exactly what to expect from their opponent in this divisional showdown. The Packers defense has been putting the clamps on opposing passing games but has proven vulnerable against the run. Detroit quite simply hasn't shown any tendency to stick with the run, abandoning it on a weekly basis, albeit somewhat game script dependent. Detroit's defense didn't have any answers for the Dolphins multi-pronged offensive attack last week but catch a break here, facing a depleted Packers offense that hasn't been able to get it going for any sustained periods this season. Last year's two matchups in this series were of the high-scoring variety. I think we see a different story here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-06-22 | Dolphins v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I can't help but feel bettors are overreacting to the Bears dealing Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith away prior to the trade deadline. I think Chicago's ugly 12-7 home loss to Washington three games back was something of a watershed moment for the team. Since then, they've put up 62 points in splitting a pair of games against New England and Dallas. They made a move to acquire WR Chase Claypool at the trade deadline and while he's unlikely to make an immediate impact here, I do think the Bears offense can feast on a still-undermanned Dolphins secondary. Too many points for the home side here. Take Chicago (10*). |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans +14 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 58 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. No one is giving the Texans any sort of chance at springing the upset against the undefeated Eagles on Thursday night. While I'm not about to predict Houston will win this game outright, I do think it can keep within arm's reach for four quarters against Philadelphia. The Eagles had no trouble laying waste to the Steelers on Sunday. That was a far worse defensive team than they'll face on Thursday, however. The Texans actually have some semblance of a pass defense led by rookie corner Derek Stingley. For the Eagles to keep their undefeated record intact I think they'll need to involve their ground attack heavily, effectively shortening this game which plays into our hands with two touchdowns in our back pocket with the Texans. Houston looked lifeless against Tennessee last Sunday as they were mercilessly run all over by RB Derrick Henry. The Eagles don't possess that type of bruising, relentless back. RB Miles Sanders will get his, but again, I'm not anticipating the same sort of beatdown on the Texans defensive front. Offensively, Houston has a workhorse to lean on in the form of RB Dameon Pierce and you can run on these Eagles as they've allowed just shy of 5.0 yards per rush and just lost key run-stopper, nose tackle Jordan Davis to an ankle injury. Like the Eagles, I feel the Texans offensive gameplan will work to shorten this game with several long, clock-churning drives. Note that the Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six contests after winning consecutive games ATS. Meanwhile, the Texans have been listed as underdogs of between 10.5 and 14 points just twice over the last three seasons, covering the number on both of those occasions. Take Houston (10*). |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 8:15 pm et on Monday. High-scoring games have been the norm in this series in recent years but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday night in Cleveland. The Browns offense has cooled off considerably following a hot start to the season. After scoring 26, 30 and 29 points in their first three games, they've put up just 20, 28, 15 and 20 points over their last four. Now they face a Bengals defense that I believe is far better than most give it credit for. The Cincinnati offense gets all of the hype with Joe Burrow and Ja'marr Chase going off on a weekly basis (Chase will of course miss this game - more on that in a moment). However, the defense has been outstanding, holding five of seven opponents to 20 points or less this season. Opposing passing games have been completely stymied and it's tough to envision Browns QB Jacob Brissett changing that trend, especially with underrated TE David Njoku slated to miss. Cleveland has topped out at 258 passing yards in a game this season. You know what you're going to get from the Browns as they look to run their offense through RB Nick Chubb (and Kareem Hunt). Theoretically, Cleveland is in line to feast with the Bengals missing key run stoppers D.J. Reader and Josh Tupou. However, rookie Zach Carter and Jay Tufele have stepped up in their absence. I mentioned that Cincinnati will be without WR Ja'marr Chase for this one. His absence can't be understated in my opinion. Yes, the Bengals are saying all of the right things with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, not to mention TE Hayden Hurst capable of picking up some of the slack. But you just don't replace a guy like Chase. With CB Denzel Ward among those sidelined for the Browns, this is a major break facing the Bengals without their top weapon in the passing game. I really think the Cincinnati offense will flow through RB Joe Mixon in this game as the Browns have proven vulnerable against the run. With that being said, I can't help but feel we'll see plenty of long, clock-churning drives from both offenses. Note that the 'under' is 12-3 in the Bengals last 15 road games and a perfect 10-0 in Cincinnati's last 10 games after being held to fewer than 100 rushing yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. The 'under' is a long-term 48-25 with the Browns playing at home off consecutive losses and 13-4 when playing at home after losing the turnover battle in three straight games. Those angles make sense when you consider the Bengals will likely look to get their ground game going again, most notably Mixon while the Browns do everything they can to take care of the football, perhaps at the expense of aggressiveness in the passing game. Take the under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy NFL Top Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 105 h 38 m | Show |
01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 47 h 20 m | Show |
01-21-24 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 49 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 43.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens -9.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
01-15-24 | Steelers v. Bills -10 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 29 m | Show |
01-14-24 | Rams +3 v. Lions | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
01-07-24 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
01-07-24 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 46 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
01-06-24 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 34.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
12-31-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
12-31-23 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 42 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -5 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
12-24-23 | Cardinals v. Bears OVER 43 | Top | 16-27 | Push | 0 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
12-24-23 | Lions v. Vikings +3 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -100 | 71 h 59 m | Show |
12-23-23 | Bengals v. Steelers +3 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
12-17-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Patriots | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
12-17-23 | Giants +5.5 v. Saints | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
12-16-23 | Broncos v. Lions -4.5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
12-14-23 | Chargers +3 v. Raiders | Top | 21-63 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
12-10-23 | Seahawks v. 49ers -13.5 | Top | 16-28 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
12-03-23 | Panthers +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
12-03-23 | Broncos v. Texans OVER 47 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
11-30-23 | Seahawks +9 v. Cowboys | Top | 35-41 | Win | 100 | 58 h 60 m | Show |
11-26-23 | Steelers -1 v. Bengals | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 26 m | Show |
11-23-23 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 44 | Top | 31-13 | Push | 0 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
11-23-23 | Commanders +12.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
11-19-23 | Cardinals +6 v. Texans | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
11-19-23 | Steelers v. Browns -2 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
11-16-23 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
11-12-23 | Commanders v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
11-12-23 | 49ers v. Jaguars OVER 45 | Top | 34-3 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
11-05-23 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
10-29-23 | Saints v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-27 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
10-23-23 | 49ers v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10-22-23 | Chargers +5.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
10-22-23 | Commanders v. Giants +3 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
10-15-23 | Eagles -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
10-15-23 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 43.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
10-08-23 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 42 m | Show |
10-08-23 | Texans v. Falcons -1.5 | Top | 19-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
10-08-23 | Titans -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44 | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
10-02-23 | Seahawks -1 v. Giants | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
10-01-23 | Ravens +2 v. Browns | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
10-01-23 | Broncos v. Bears UNDER 46.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers +2 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs OVER 44.5 | Top | 25-11 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
09-24-23 | Bills v. Commanders +6.5 | Top | 37-3 | Loss | -104 | 95 h 42 m | Show |
09-24-23 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers UNDER 44.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
09-18-23 | Saints -3 v. Panthers | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
09-17-23 | 49ers -7 v. Rams | Top | 30-23 | Push | 0 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
09-17-23 | Raiders v. Bills OVER 47 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
09-10-23 | Jaguars v. Colts OVER 45.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles -1.5 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 33 m | Show |
01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 47.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 46 m | Show |
01-29-23 | 49ers v. Eagles -2 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 31 m | Show |
01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers -3.5 | Top | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 105 h 52 m | Show |
01-21-23 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 48 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
01-15-23 | Giants v. Vikings OVER 48 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
01-14-23 | Chargers -2 v. Jaguars | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
01-08-23 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
01-07-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders +9.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants -5.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants UNDER 39 | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
12-24-22 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 47.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 39 m | Show |
12-22-22 | Jaguars v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
12-19-22 | Rams v. Packers -7 | Top | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
12-18-22 | Eagles v. Bears UNDER 48.5 | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills OVER 43 | Top | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
12-15-22 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
12-11-22 | Browns v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 52 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 34 m | Show |
12-08-22 | Raiders -6 v. Rams | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 41.5 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans +8 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
12-04-22 | Commanders v. Giants +2.5 | Top | 20-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
11-27-22 | Packers +6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
11-27-22 | Rams +16 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-26 | Push | 0 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
11-24-22 | Bills v. Lions UNDER 54.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 52 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 48.5 | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 50 h 27 m | Show |
11-20-22 | Lions +3 v. Giants | Top | 31-18 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
11-14-22 | Commanders +11 v. Eagles | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers -7.5 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
11-13-22 | Browns +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints UNDER 47 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
11-06-22 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
11-06-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 49.5 | Top | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
11-06-22 | Dolphins v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans +14 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 58 m | Show |
10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |