Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-26-23 | Cardinals +100 v. Giants | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. We'll often look to fade MLB teams coming off emotional, come-from-behind victories like the one we saw from the Giants last night. San Francisco has now won a season-high four games in a row after having not strung together consecutive victories on a single occasion previously. The win streak has really come out of nowhere for a team that wasn't doing anything particularly well and I expect it to grind to a halt on Wednesday. Steven Matz will take the ball for the visiting Cardinals. I think some positive regression to the mean is in order when it comes to the left-hander as he has gone winless through his first four starts this season, posting a 4.87 FIP and 1.64 WHIP along the way. Keep in mind, in his first year with the Cardinals in 2022, Matz logged a 3.78 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in 15 appearances spanning 48 innings of work. In his last full big league season, Matz recorded a 3.79 FIP and 1.33 WHIP in 150 2/3 innings with the Blue Jays in 2021. Matz command simply hasn't been there in the early going as he has issued north of 4.0 walks per nine innings. I do think he can and will settle down and it's worth noting that the Giants don't put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with runners on base, with just 12 stolen bases to date this season. Behind Matz is a Cards bullpen that has pitched well (despite last night's debacle), recording a collective 3.43 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season. That's in stark contrast to the Giants bullpen, which has logged a collective 5.44 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Anthony DeSclafani will get the nod for San Francisco on Wednesday. Perhaps the opposite of Matz, some negative regression to the mean can be expected when it comes to the veteran right-hander. He has posted a 2.91 FIP and 0.88 WHIP but comes off his worst outing of the season against the Mets last Friday. After pitching lights out in his first two starts this season, DeSclafani has allowed six earned runs on 13 hits, including two home runs, over his last two outings, covering a span of 11 2/3 innings. Take St. Louis (10*). |
|||||||
04-26-23 | Padres +100 v. Cubs | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We'll fade Cubs starter Drew Smyly off his incredible brush with a Perfect Game in his most recent outing last Friday. Smyly has pitched exceptionally well over his last three starts and it has really come out of nowhere. Note that he'll be pitching on short rest (four days) here for the second straight outing, however, and I look for the Padres bats to come alive off last night's shutout defeat in the series-opener. Some regression is almost certainly in order when it comes to the veteran Smyly, noting that he has posted a 3.37 FIP and 0.91 WHIP so far this season after logging 5.11/1.37 and 4.23/1.19 splits over the last two campaigns. Michael Wacha will counter for San Diego. He hasn't been good over his last two outings but we know he's capable of giving the Padres some quality starts. After all, he had worked 12 innings and allowed just four earned runs on eight hits in his first two starts this season, including an outing in Atlanta where he tossed six shutout frames, striking out 10 along the way. Wacha owns a 4.36 FIP and 1.72 WHIP so far this season after logging a 4.14 FIP and 1.12 WHIP in 23 starts spanning 127 1/3 innings with the Red Sox last year. The good news here is that Wacha will be pitching on full rest (five days) for the fifth straight outing to open the campaign. While the Cubs bullpen has posted better numbers than that of the Padres so far this season there hasn't been a considerable gap. In fact, San Diego's relief corps has already converted eight saves while blowing just three while the Cubs have only two saves to their credit to go along with three blown. Take San Diego (8*). |
|||||||
04-25-23 | Royals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in the opener of this series last night but probably deserved a better fate as both teams wasted numerous scoring opportunities, not to mention the fact that seven runs were scored before the middle of the fifth inning (the game finished with nine runs). I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday as we arguably have an even more favorable starting pitching matchup for the hitters, not to mention the fact that both bullpens were forced to use a number of key arms in last night's contest. Brady Singer will take the ball for the Royals. Through four starts spanning 21 innings of work, Singer has recorded a 5.46 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while allowing 32-of-93 batters he's faced to reach base so far this season. Not only that but he's been tagged for five home runs. It's a similar story for Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson. We actually won with the 'over' in his most recent start against the Padres last week. Nelson has logged a 5.50 FIP and 1.18 WHIP through his first four outings this season, covering a span of 22 innings. He has only allowed 26-of-91 batters to reach base but that's had more to do with batted balls not falling in than anything else (he's giving up just 7.4 hits per nine innings but has been lit up for four home runs including three in his last two starts). It's worth mentioning that Nelson started on short rest (four days) for the first time in his big league career last time out and will have to do so for a second straight outing here. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence. The Royals 'pen sports a collective 6.30 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, converting only three saves while blowing three as well. Arizona's relief corps has logged a more respectable 4.73 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with six saves converted and four blown but used closer Andrew Chafin for 1 2/3 innings (and 30-plus pitches) last night, meaning he likely won't be available on Tuesday. Also note that the D'Backs 'pen has already worked 91 1/3 innings this season and hasn't had a day off since April 13th. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
04-25-23 | Padres v. Cubs -122 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over San Diego at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs had a day off on Monday to digest dropping three of four games at home against the Dodgers from Thursday-Sunday. Meanwhile, the Padres are 'fat and happy' after taking three of four games from the division-rival Diamondbacks in Arizona. I don't like the way this starting pitching matchup sets up for the visiting Padres as they hand the ball to Blake Snell against Justin Steele. Snell hasn't been any better than his 6.00 ERA indicates this season as he has logged a 6.04 FIP and 1.89 WHIP. The left-hander has allowed 34-of-86 batters to reach base and figures to be under plenty of pressure against a Cubs lineup that has swiped 24 bases and averages 5.8 runs per game on the campaign. Steele was quietly effective in his 24 big league starts last season, posting a 3.20 FIP and 1.35 WHIP. He's arguably been even better so far this season, recording a 3.52 FIP and 0.88 WHIP in four starts spanning 25 innings of work. Only 23 of the 95 batters he has faced have reached base and the Padres haven't been overly aggressive on the basepaths this season, swiping only nine bases to date. Behind Steele is a Cubs bullpen that has logged a collective 4.31 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. The Padres on the other hand have posted a collective 4.45 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Over their last seven games, Padres relievers have allowed 17 earned runs in just 23 1/3 innings. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
04-25-23 | Rockies v. Guardians -1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland -1.5 runs over Colorado at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Rockies took the opener of this series last night and it wasn't particularly close as they jumped ahead 6-0 before the end of the fifth inning and never looked back. The Guardians have admittedly been stumbling lately but I do see this as an ideal bounce-back spot on Tuesday. Ryan Feltner will take the ball for Colorado. He hasn't been quite as bad as his six-plus ERA would indicate but he hasn't been good either. Feltner checks in sporting a 4.69 FIP and 1.68 WHIP, allowing 32-of-88 batters to reach base. As I've noted on multiple occasions this season, the Guardians have the type of lineup that puts a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers - especially those that tend to play with fire and put men on base consistently. Note that Cleveland boasts an incredible five players ranked in the top-15 in baseball (including ties) in stolen bases this season. The Rockies bullpen held up well late night but didn't face much pressure either. Entering this series, Colorado's 'pen had logged a 4.50 ERA and 1.47 WHIP while being forced to work a whopping 90 innings collectively. Rookie Peyton Battenfield will get his third start of the campaign for the Guardians. More has been asked of him due to injuries in Cleveland's starting rotation and the rookie starter has taken advantage. He enters Tuesday's outing sporting a 3.88 FIP and 0.94 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings of work. Of the 41 batters Battenfield has faced, only 10 have reached base. A closer look into Battenfield's background shows that he posted a solid 3.63 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 28 starts at the Triple-A level last season. It's been a steady ascension through the Guardians' minor league system for the right-hander and he certainly appears ready for the opportunity to pitch at this level. Of course, Cleveland owns one of the best bullpens in baseball, even if its numbers have been rather pedestrian so far this season. The Guardians relief corps' has posted a collective 3.47 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with nine saves converted and four blown here in 2023 (entering last night's action). They kept most of their key arms idle thanks to the lopsided result last night, including setup man James Karinchak and closer Emmanuel Clase. Take Cleveland -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
04-24-23 | Royals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. These two teams met for a two-game series at Chase Field last season and the result was a pair of slugfests with each contest totalling exactly 14 runs. While I'm not sure we see that many runs on Monday, I do think the total will prove too low once again. The Royals will hand the ball to Brad Keller for his fifth start of the season. While he has posted a solid 3.00 ERA that doesn't tell the whole story as he owns a 4.38 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. The hits haven't necessarily been falling in against him but that's likely to change as he has given up considerably more hits than innings pitched in each of his last two seasons. Note that of the 87 batters Keller has faced, 29 have reached base. The Diamondbacks are a team I would classify as being a handful to deal with when getting on base, racking up 20 stolen bases so far this season. Behind Keller is a Royals bullpen that has been among the worst in baseball this season, posting a collective 6.69 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with only three saves converted and three blown. Tommy Henry gets the call-up and will make his first start of the season for the D'Backs. He found some success early last season but it seemed the book was out on him late as he allowed 18 earned runs in just 19 1/3 innings of work over his last four starts. Henry ended up logging a 5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in his rookie campaign. Things haven't gone swimmingly for him in the early going at the Triple-A level this season as he has recorded a 6.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in four starts spanning 21 1/3 innings. Of the 91 batters he has faced at that level, 32 have reached base. Arizona's bullpen could be in tough in this series noting that the D'Backs haven't had a day off since April 23rd and their relief corps has struggled at the best of times, recording a collective 4.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with six saves converted and three blown. The Royals scored more runs in yesterday's game (11) than they had in their previous five contests (9), perhaps providing a spark as this three-game series begins. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-23-23 | Nationals v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 runs over Washington at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We resisted the temptation to back the Twins on the run-line yesterday after they dropped the opener of this series on Friday night, thankfully so as they got drilled in the second game of this series. They'll look to avoid the unlikely series sweep at the hands of the Nationals on Sunday afternoon and I'm confident they can do just that in convincing fashion. Patrick Corbin will get another turn in the Washington rotation, despite his struggles continuing in the early going this season. Corbin has been just about as bad as his 6.30 ERA indicates, recording a 4.91 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while allowing 35-of-96 batters to reach base. I do think the Twins have a similar lineup to the Guardians in terms of their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths and that particular order gave him plenty of trouble in his most recent start. The presence of Bailey Ober on the mound for the Twins may give some bettors pause but I'm not sure that it should. Ober quietly recorded a 2.92 FIP and 1.05 WHIP in 11 starts spanning 56 innings of work last season but was the odd man out in terms of the Twins rotation to start this season after the acquisition of Pablo Lopez. Due to injuries, there is an opportunity for Ober to perhaps stick at the big league level for a bit should he perform well here. Note that the right-hander had been pitching well at Triple-A, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, not to mention a 22:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 17 2/3 innings this season. The Nationals bullpen has actually outperformed that of the Twins so far this season, but similar to what I alluded to in my Dodgers-Cubs writeup yesterday, I would anticipate that script flipping as the season goes on. Note that the Minnesota 'pen is still one of the fresher relief corps' in baseball having only logged a collective 69 innings this season. Thanks to the lopsided nature of yesterday's game, the Twins were able to keep their key relievers off the mound with recent call-up Simeon Woods Richardson logging a key 4 2/3 innings in relief in Saturday's contest. Take Minnesota -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
04-22-23 | White Sox v. Rays -179 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm willing to pay up to back the Rays in Game 2 of this series against the White Sox after they probably had no business winning last night's game (but did anyway). Chicago's bullpen continues to implode game-after-game. It entered this series sporting a collective 6.68 ERA and 1.77 WHIP and those numbers only got worse after last night's debacle. On a positive note for Chicago, Dylan Cease will get the start on Saturday. He's faced the Rays three times previously and has never lasted a full six innings. Cease enters this start sporting a sparkling 2.01 ERA this season but probably hasn't been quite as good as that ERA indicates, recording a 3.34 FIP with 28-of-99 batters he has faced reaching base despite hits falling in at an unusually low rate. The Rays will of course put pressure on the best of pitchers and remain one of the healthiest lineups in baseball as we approach the end of April. Tampa Bay will hand the ball to its own ace, Shane McClanahan. He's been outstanding through his first four starts this season with the Rays winning all four of those games. McClanahan has posted a 2.43 FIP and 1.13 WHIP and has yet to give up a home run. Again, the bullpen matchup in this series is no contest, noting that Tampa Bay relievers entered last night's action with a collective 2.89 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, converting three saves without blowing a single one. With the White Sox still sorely missing table-setter Tim Anderson at the top of their lineup, I look for the Rays to put another one past them on Saturday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
|||||||
04-22-23 | Dodgers -128 v. Cubs | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers were a no-show yesterday after taking the opener of this four-game set on Thursday. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday, however, as they hand the ball to Dustin May against Hayden Wesneski of the Cubs. May is off to a terrific start this season but did get roughed up at the hands of the Mets last time out. The right-hander still owns a solid 3.80 FIP and 0.92 WHIP and I like his chances of rebounding against a Cubs offense that isn’t as good as it showed in yesterday’s 13-0 rout. Note that only 23-of-92 batters May has faced have reached base this season. That’s in stark contrast to his counterpart Wesneski, who has allowed 23-of-61 batters aboard. Wesneski did silence the lowly A’s bats last time out but still owns an ERA and FIP north of six this season. While he does have terrific stuff, he’s not really fooling a lot of big league hitters right now with only 11 strikeouts in 13 innings of work this season. While the Cubs bullpen has been more effective than that of the Dodgers so far this season I do expect that script to flip as time goes on. Thanks to the lopsided nature of yesterday’s defeat the Dodgers have their key relievers fresh for this contest. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
04-21-23 | Mets v. Giants -105 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
National League Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco over New York at 10:15 pm et on Friday. The Mets entered the week on a four-game winning streak and have stayed hot, first taking two of three games from the mighty Dodgers in Los Angeles and then defeating the down-trodden Giants 9-4 in last night's series-opener in San Francisco. I look for their streak to grind to a halt on Friday, however, as they send Joey Lucchesi to the mound for his first big league start since 2021 against Anthony DeSclafani of the Giants. The plan probably wasn't for Lucchesi to be dropped into the starting rotation so early this season but the Mets are desperate with Justin Verlander and Carlos Carrasco sidelined due to injuries and Max Scherzer now suspended for 10 games for using an illegal substance. Lucchesi will be making his first big league start since undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has made three starts at the minor league level this season, recording an impressive 2.30 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. However, 18-of-64 batters he has faced have reached base and he was tagged for a pair of home runs in 15 2/3 innings of work so it's not as if he's been setting the Triple-A circuit on fire. It remains to be seen how deep he can work into a game and the Mets bullpen is a bit taxed at this point, having already logged 75 1/3 innings and not having had a day off since April 13th. DeSclafani has been sharp in his first three starts for the Giants this season. While he's bound to suffer some regression as he enters sporting a 1.42 ERA, his 2.34 FIP and 0.63 WHIP indicate he's pitching well without the help of smoke-and-mirrors. Only 12 of the 68 batters he has faced have reached base through his 19 innings of work this season. This will be a 'revenge game' of sorts for DeSclafani after he allowed five earned runs on nine hits over five innings against the Mets last April. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here as he was pitching on short rest (four days) in that previous outing against them and certainly wasn't in the same form he is now, noting that he battled injuries from that start on last year, ultimately making only two more trips to the hill (two months later) before being shut down for the season. Behind DeSclafani is a Giants bullpen that has struggled to the tune of a 5.65 ERA and 1.45 WHIP this season but does come in relatively fresh after Tristan Beck did yeoman's work last night, tossing 5 1/3 innings in relief of an ineffective Sean Manaea, just one day after getting called from the minors. On the flip side, the Mets were forced to use key reliever Drew Smith for the second straight game (and third in the last four) meaning he likely won't be available for Friday's game. Remember, New York is already without closer Edwin Diaz and Stephen Nogosek due to injuries. Take San Francisco (10*). |
|||||||
04-20-23 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. You have to figure the Padres offense is going to explode sooner rather than later after being held to a grand total of two runs over their last four games and four runs or less in nine of their last 10 contests (they scored 10 runs in the lone outlier over that stretch). I actually like the way this spot sets up for the San Diego bats. Note that the Padres will be seeing Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson for the fourth time going back to last season. That's notable when you consider Nelson will only be making his seventh career big league start. Since getting shut down by Nelson in their first look at him last September, they've plated six earned runs on nine hits over just 10 1/3 innings against him, including a 5-4 loss at home back on April 3rd. San Diego has struggled mightily at the plate at home this season but has been much more productive on the road, where it averages 4.4 runs per game (compared to its season scoring average of 3.6 rpg). Here, we'll note that Nelson will be making his first career start on short (four days') rest. Note that while he has recorded a respectable 3.71 ERA so far this season, his 4.56 FIP tells a different story. After striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings in limited work last season, Nelson has seen that number drop to 5.3 this year. Michael Wacha will take the ball for the visiting Padres. He's had an up-and-down start to the campaign, most recently getting shelled by the red hot Brewers last time out. Wacha hasn't been quite as bad as his 6.06 ERA would seem to indicate but he hasn't been good either, recording a 4.79 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while allowing 24 of the 70 batters he's faced to reach base. I expect him to labor against a D'Backs lineup that can wear you out. Similar to the Guardians (who we won with yesterday), Arizona has speed to burn and is aggressive on the basepaths, with 19 stolen bases so far this season. While Wacha enjoyed a renaissance year of sorts with the Red Sox in 2022, his numbers have generally been on the decline and while he's capable of giving the Padres some quality innings, there are going to be some rough outings in the mix as well, as we saw in his most recent start. Behind Wacha is a Padres bullpen that hasn't enjoyed a day off since April 5th. San Diego relievers have logged a collective 3.93 ERA and 1.37 WHIP and have just 19 strikeouts compared to 14 walks over their last 25 innings of work. The D'Backs bullpen has been among the worst in baseball, posting a collective 5.51 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with those numbers ballooning to a 6.66 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last seven games. It's been a week since Arizona had a day off and with a number of recent high-scoring games, its bullpen has been taxed. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-19-23 | Twins -124 v. Red Sox | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series in extra innings last night but I look for the Twins to answer back on Wednesday. Joe Ryan will take the ball for Minnesota. He has posted terrific numbers through his first three starts this season and it hasn't had anything to do with smoke-and-mirrors. Ryan owns a 2.84 ERA and a 3.10 WHIP not to mention a sparkling 0.63 WHIP. Of the 70 batters he has faced, only 12 have reached base. Keep in mind, the right-hander posted a solid 3.99 FIP and 1.10 WHIP in his first full big league season last year. Behind Ryan is a Twins bullpen that has recorded a collective 2.75 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, converting five saves and blowing only two. Red Sox starter Corey Kluber has labored through his first three starts this season and he's been every bit as bad as his 6.92 ERA indicates, logging a 6.70 FIP and 1.46 WHIP in 13 innings of work. In stark contrast to Ryan, Kluber has allowed 19 of the 57 batters he has faced to reach base. The Red Sox bullpen has held up well but there's reason for concern as they've already logged a whopping 76 1/3 innings. Over the last seven games alone Red Sox relievers have worked 29 2/3 innings. Compare that to the Twins relief corps, which has been called into action for just 52 1/3 innings this season. Take Minnesota (8*). |
|||||||
04-19-23 | Guardians -137 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Guardians have lost three games in a row including a double-header sweep at the hands of the Tigers yesterday. All three of those contests could have gone either way as they were all decided by a single run. I expect to see the Guardians offense wake up on Wednesday afternoon as they face Spencer Turnbull of the Tigers. Turnbull hasn't been as bad as his inflated 9.00 ERA would seem to indicate but he hasn't been good either. The right-hander checks in sporting a 4.62 FIP and 1.92 WHIP through 13 innings of work. The Tigers have been careful with him as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. As I've noted on more than one occasion this season, the Guardians are a taxing opponent to face as they put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers thanks to their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths. Here, they'll be facing Turnbull who has had a tendency to put a lot of runners on with 27 of the 63 batters he has faced reaching base so far this season. Behind Turnbull is a Tigers bullpen that held up well in yesterday's double-header but entered the day sporting a collective 5.46 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with only two saves converted and three blown this season. Cal Quantrill will take the ball for the Guardians. He has posted similar numbers to those of Turnbull so far this season. He hasn't had as much of an issue with his command, however, and will be facing the weaker of the two lineups in this contest (note that the Tigers 3, 4 and 5 hitters last night finished the game batting .189, .189 and .167, respectively). The hits have been falling in at an uncommon rate against Quantrill so far this season (12.1 hits allowed per nine innings) when you consider that he has only allowed more hits than innings pitched in one of his previous four big league seasons - that in his rookie campaign with the Padres in 2019). Quantrill has alternated good and bad outings against the Tigers over the course of his career but the Guardians have won his last two starts against them by a combined 18-4 score. Cleveland's bullpen entered yesterday's action with a collective 3.23 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in tow and didn't end up using closer Emmanuel Clase, keeping him fresh in case he's called upon on Wednesday afternoon. Take Cleveland (10*). |
|||||||
04-18-23 | Mets v. Dodgers -150 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mets took the opener of this series by a score of 8-6 last night as the Dodgers fell below the .500 mark once again. I look for Los Angeles to answer back behind veteran starter Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday. New York will hand the ball to Tylor Megill. While he owns a sparkling 2.25 ERA through his first three starts this season, his 4.64 FIP tells a different story. Megill isn't really fooling many hitters with a 1.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 16 innings of work. Of the 65 batters he has faced, 19 have reached base. Note that Megill is headed into uncharted territory riding a five-game team win streak in his starts going back to last season. He's accomplished that feat once previously in his career with the Mets losing his next outing by a 9-2 score against the Braves, at home no less. Kershaw is off to a solid if not spectacular start this season having logged a 4.44 FIP and 1.11 WHIP. His command has been there as he has recorded 8.5 strikeouts and just 2.0 walks per nine innings. Note that Kershaw faced the Mets once last season and was effective, allowing just one earned run (on only one hit) while striking out six and walking three over five innings. The Dodgers have gone an incredible 15-3 in Kershaw's 18 career outings against New York but again, only last year's start was all that relevant as that was his first start against the Mets since 2019. The Mets bullpen has been terrific despite missing some key arms due to injury. However, I am concerned with the fact that their relief corps has already logged 62 1/3 innings. The Dodgers did save some of their key bullpen arms thanks to trailing by multiple runs over the game's final three innings last night. I certainly anticipate positive regression from the Los Angeles 'pen as it has uncharacteristically struggled so far this season, recording a collective 4.97 and 1.53 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
04-17-23 | Blue Jays v. Astros UNDER 8 | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold as they match up in Houston on Monday. Kevin Gausman will take the ball for the visiting Blue Jays. He's off to a fine start to the campaign having posted a 2.57 FIP and 1.00 WHIP through his first three starts, allowing just 20-of-79 batters he's faced to reach base. With that said, he was visibly frustrated after allowing a pair of home runs (the first two he's given up this season) against the light-hitting Tigers in an otherwise fine outing last week. Keeping in mind, Gausman received A.L. Cy Young Award votes last year, logging a 2.38 FIP and 1.24 WHIP I expect the right-hander to keep up his strong pitching here. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He'll be looking to bounce back from his worst outing of the young season against the Pirates last week. Javier was of course a breakout star for the Astros last season, proving invaluable in the postseason to earn a lucrative five-year contract extension in the offseason. He had a fine Spring and still owns a solid 3.74 FIP and 1.18 WHIP through his first three regular season starts. While the hits have been falling in against him, I would anticipate him getting that sorted out sooner rather than later, noting that he has allowed just 5.9 hits per nine innings over the course of his 3+ year big league career. Note that despite his up-and-down start, Javier has actually allowed only 21-of-71 batters he's faced to reach base. Both teams kept their key bullpen arms fresh yesterday thanks to lopsided defeats. Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano should be available after suffering a rib contusion on Saturday. Note that the Jays 'pen has recorded a collective 3.30 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this season while the Astros relief corps has had little to do with the team's slow start, logging a respectable 3.95 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
04-16-23 | Guardians v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland at Washington at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. While the scoring fizzled in the second half of the game, last night's contest between these two teams did find its way 'over' the total. I expect a similar result on Sunday as the Guardians look to wrap up a series sweep with ace Shane Bieber taking the ball against Patrick Corbin of the Nationals. Bieber has been terrific as expected in the early going this season. I do think some regression is in store, however, noting that he has posted a 2.52 FIP and 0.95 WHIP through his first three outings after logging a 2.87 FIP and 1.04 WHIP last year (he finished seventh in A.L. Cy Young Award voting). Note that the Nationals have faced their share of tough pitchers at home already this season with their previous two series' in the host role coming against the Braves and Rays. Yet they've still averaged 3.0 runs per game here at Nationals Park and 3.5 rpg when facing right-handed starting pitching, as will be the case today. It's also worth noting that the Guardians have used setup man James Karinchak and closer Emmanuel Clase in each of the last two games so they'll either be unavailable or see their effectiveness diminished on Sunday. On the flip side, much like last night against Chad Kuhl, the Guardians should have little trouble getting to Nats' starter Patrick Corbin. He checks in sporting a 6.15 FIP and 2.14 WHIP this season. Of the 71 batters he has faced, 30 have reached base. As I noted in yesterday's analysis of the Guardians, they have speed to burn and are ultra-aggressive on the basepaths and I'm confident we'll see them knock Corbin off his game early on Sunday. Behind Corbin is a pedestrian Nats' bullpen that has posted a collective 4.23 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with three saves converted and three blown this season. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
04-15-23 | Guardians v. Nationals OVER 9 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Washington at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The 'under' cashed in the opener of this series last night as the Guardians prevailed by a 4-3 score in a well-pitched game from both sides. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as Cleveland sends Zach Plesac to the mound against Chad Kuhl of the Nationals. Plesac has posted rather pedestrian numbers throughout his 4+ year big league career. Things haven't gone well for the right-hander through two outings this year as he has recorded a 5.62 FIP and 1.75 WHIP. That includes a start on the road against the light-hitting A's in which he allowed six earned runs in a single inning of work. He did bounce back nicely in his home debut against the Mariners but I certainly don't anticipate seeing him completely shut down the Nationals here. Note that the Guardians used three of their best relievers in last night's game, Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak and closer Emmanuel Clase each logged an inning. While that doesn't mean they won't be available on Saturday, we could see diminished effectiveness. I expect Washington starter Chad Kuhl to have a tough time containing the Cleveland offense here. The Guardians put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers thanks to their aggressive base-running and speed on the basepaths. That's not to mention the fact that they know how to work the counts and see a lot of pitches. Kuhl has logged a 7.37 FIP and 1.50 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 16-of-44 batters to reach base. Behind Kuhl is an average-at-best Nats' bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.40 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
04-14-23 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I think this has the potential to be one of the more entertaining games on Friday's MLB board but not necessarily because it projects as high-scoring. We actually have a solid starting pitching matchup as the Cubs hand the ball to Justin Steele and the Dodgers counter with Noah Syndergaard. Steele had an impressive 2022 campaign, recording a 3.20 FIP and 1.35 WHIP. Command was an issue and has been through his first two outings this season as well but he's managed to limit the damage thanks to keeping his hits allowed down and strikeouts up. While Steele's last outing did find its way 'over' the total in a blowout win over the Rangers, he hasn't seen consecutive starts go 'over' the total since last June. It's a similar story for Syndergaard. His last start went 'over' the total but he's only posted consecutive 'over' results once since last June. Speaking of that last start, it was an ugly one as Syndergaard allowed six earned runs on eight hits over just four innings, clearly the D'Backs had his number seeing him for the second time in six days. That performance skewed his early season numbers as he was actually sharp in his debut, right here at home at Dodger Stadium, holding the same D'Backs to just one earned run over six innings. Both bullpens have been good but not great in the early going. I would certainly expect the Dodgers relief corps to rank among the best in baseball before too long. I like the fact that both teams are coming off an off day on Thursday given both bullpens have worked north of 40 innings already this season. Cubs and Dodgers relievers have combined to record an impressive 93:25 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 in the Cubs last 18 games following an off day going back to last season, resulting in an average total of just 6.5 runs in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
04-14-23 | Mets -1.5 v. A's | 17-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The A's actually had a bit of an offensive explosion over the final three games of their series in Baltimore but managed just one victory. Here, I look for the Oakland offense to go back in the tank as it returns home to cavernous O.co Coliseum to host the Mets. Kodai Senga will get his third big league start for the Mets. While his command hasn't necessarily been there just yet (six walks through 11 1/3 innings, there's no question he has been impressive, posting a 3.66 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings. His counterpart on Friday will be James Kaprielian. I question whether the A's right-hander is long for a big league rotation at this point. He's been in the majors full-time since 2021 and has logged a 4.72 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. The book is effectively out on Kaprielian and I look for the Mets to be next in line to take advantage on Friday. Behind Kaprielian is an A's bullpen that doesn't even get a chance to catch its breath after another wild, high-scoring game in Baltimore yesterday. The A's have already logged 55 innings in relief, posting a collective 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and lost an arm to injury in Domingo Acevedo during the series in Baltimore. New York's 'pen is still missing closer Edwin Diaz but has been impressive nonetheless, recording a 3.72 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
04-14-23 | Orioles -101 v. White Sox | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. It seems that every year the White Sox carry high hopes into the season residing in a seemingly manageable American League Central but here we are a couple of weeks into the season and they're already four games back of first place looking up at both the Guardians and Twins. Coming off consecutive losses in Minnesota and missing table-setter Tim Anderson due to injury, I look for them to fall short again as they open this series with the Orioles on Friday. Baltimore just took three of four games from Oakland, scoring 29 runs in the process. I look for it to keep up its hot streak at the plate here against Chicago starter Mike Clevinger. He has posted a 3.68 FIP but an ugly 1.55 WHIP through two outings, allowing 18-of-49 batters he has faced to reach base. Inconsistency has been Clevinger's calling card throughout his big league career and I expect that to be a storyline thorughout this season as well. Behind Clevinger is a White Sox bullpen that has been among baseball's worst so far this season, recording a collective 7.01 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 43 2/3 innings. That's in stark contrast to the O's relief corps' which has posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 54 1/3 innings. I don't know that too much will be asked of Baltimore's 'pen in this one with Tyler Wells starting. He has posted a 4.30 FIP but an impressive 0.55 WHIP through two outings (one in long relief) spanning 11 innings so far this season. Only six of the 39 batters Wells has faced have managed to reach base. Across parts of three big league seasons, Wells has allowed just 7.1 hits, 1.4 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings, only lagging behind Clevinger in one of those departments (home runs allowed). Take Baltimore (8*). |
|||||||
04-13-23 | Twins v. Yankees -140 | 11-2 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Minnesota at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Twins managed to pull out a series victory over the division-rival White Sox after dropping the opener earlier in the week and they did it thanks in large part to their pitching staff. Minnesota is playing with a fairly slim margin for error right now as it continues to deal with a number of key injuries. The Twins could be without Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Alex Kirillof and Jorge Polanco for this game with only Buxton and Correa even having an outside chance at starting. Not surprisingly, the Twinkies have plated just 11 runs over their last four games with some help from extra innings over that stretch. While I do like Minnesota starter Joe Ryan, I can't help but feel he'll be asked to do a little too much on Thursday. Note that he's made just one previous start against the Yankees, that coming last September in a 7-1 defeat here in the Bronx. Ryan has already allowed two home runs in as many starts this season despite those two outings coming in predominantly 'pitcher's parks' in Kansas City and Minnesota. While the Twins bullpen is outstanding, it did use two of its key late-inning arms in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran in each of the last two days. The Yankees will hand the ball to impressive rookie start Jhony Brito. We won with the Yanks in his most recent start in Baltimore last Saturday. While he didn't have his best stuff in that contest, he still allowed just one earned run over five innings. Brito has posted a 2.70 FIP and 0.80 WHIP through two big league outings this season. Like the Twins, the Yankees have an elite bullpen that enters Thursday's action sporting a collective 1.87 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with four saves converted and only one blown. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
04-13-23 | Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
A.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I think we're dealing with a bit of 'small sample size-itis' when it comes to the two starting pitchers in Thursday's series-finale between the Red Sox and Rays. Corey Kluber probably isn't as bad as his early returns indicate while Jeffrey Springs probably isn't quite as good (although I still have him pegged as an elite starter this season). With that said, I believe this total will prove too high after we saw the last two contests in this series sail 'over' the number. Kluber had an awful season debut on Opening Day against the Orioles but did rebound to work five effective innings against the upstart Pirates last time out. Here, he'll pitch on seven days' rest and I do think that helps his cause as he faces a familiar foe in the Rays (who he pitched for last season). Springs has been lights out through his first two starts, recording a 1.40 FIP and 0.54 WHIP in 13 shutout innings. Of course, he's faced the Tigers and A's - two of the American League's weakest offensive clubs. With that being said, I do think he can keep his hot start going against a Red Sox lineup that has proven to be top-heavy to say the least. Both bullpens got touched up in last night's wild 9-7 Rays victory but had previously been solid in the early going this season. Boston entered last night's play with a collective 3.09 bullpen ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The Rays relief corps went into Wednesday's action sporting an impressive 1.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-12-23 | Mariners -104 v. Cubs | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Wednesday. The Cubs have gotten the better of the Mariners in the first two games of this series but I think Seattle has the right pitcher on the mound to stem the tide and end its three-game losing skid on Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Logan Gilbert will take the ball for the Mariners. We cashed one of our bigger plays of the season in a similar situation last year as Gilbert took the ball in a matinee affair against the White Sox in Chicago and helped Seattle avoid the sweep with a terrific performance. I expect a similar outcome here. Gilbert had a fine Spring and he's picked up right where he left off in the regular season, recording a 3.01 FIP and 1.30 WHIP in 10 innings of work. Behind Gilbert is a Mariners bullpen that got roughed up last night but has been solid in the early going this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.76 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Thanks to getting three innings from seldom-used Jose Rodriguez in mop-up duty the M's 'pen isn't in all that awful shape rest-wise entering Wednesday's matinee affair. Marcus Stroman will get the start for the Cubs. He's turned back the clock in a sense, following up an outstanding Spring with two fine outings to open the regular season (2.82 FIP and 0.92 WHIP). I can't help but feel regression is coming, however, noting that Stroman recorded a pedestrian 3.76 FIP and 1.15 WHIP last season. The Cubs have used key bullpen arm Mark Leiter Jr. in each of the last two nights so you have to figure he'll be unavailable on Wednesday. Chicago's bullpen entered last night's game having logged a collective 4.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with one save converted and two blown on the campaign. Take Seattle (10*). |
|||||||
04-11-23 | Cardinals -162 v. Rockies | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cardinals have run into some tough pitching after a hot start to the season (offensively at least), recording single-digit hits in four of their last five games. In fact, they enter this game on a 1-6 slide but I look for them to turn things around on Tuesday. Cards starter Miles Mikolas is off to a rough start himself, allowing 19 hits and 10 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings so far this season. With that being said, things probably aren't as bad as his inflated 9.64 ERA would seem to indicate as he has actually posted a 2.86 FIP. Keep in mind, he had an outstanding Spring, not allowing a single earned run in three starts, covering a span of 12 innings. While Coors Field isn't exactly an ideal park to bounce back in, I'm confident Mikolas can pitch well enough to give his team a chance on Tuesday. St. Louis will get a chance to tee off on a left-hander for the first time since it delivered a 6-0 win over Eric Lauer and the Brewers on Saturday. The Cards check in 49-25, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.5 runs when facing left-handed starting pitching over the last 2+ seasons. St. Louis is also an incredible 46-19 in its last 65 games as a road favorite, outscoring the opposition by 1.9 runs on average along the way. Here, the Cards will face Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland. He's off to an admittedly strong start - the polar opposite of Mikolas after Freeland endured a difficult Spring that saw him post an ERA approaching six and a 1.93 WHIP in 9 1/3 innings. I don't think we should get too excited about the fact that Freeland hasn't allowed an earned run through two starts as he has posted a less-than-impressive 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings and his 3.16 FIP tells a different story compared to his flawless ERA. This will be the Cards third time seeing Freeland since the start of last season, connecting for nine earned runs on 17 hits over 10 1/3 innings over those two previous contests. The St. Louis bullpen is worth betting on in my opinion even if its numbers have been rather pedestrian so far (3.53 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 35 2/3 innings). The Rockies 'pen has struggled to the tune of a 5.31 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, not to mention the fact that it has already been overworked, logging north of 40 innings collectively. Take St. Louis (10*). |
|||||||
04-10-23 | Dodgers -148 v. Giants | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The Dodgers had a rough weekend in Arizona, dropping three straight games, allowing double-digit runs in the most recent two setbacks. They have the right guy on the mound to get them back on track on Monday in Julio Urias. He was good but not great in the Spring but has ramped up quickly in the regular season, recording a 1.65 FIP and 0.75 WHIP through two starts, spanning 12 innings of work. Urias faced the Giants five times last season, allowing only three earned runs in 30 innings. Logan Webb will counter for San Francisco. He's been solid through two outings as well but his numbers certainly don't stand up to Urias', with a 3.40 FIP and 1.36 WHIP. The Dodgers should welcome the opportunity to face Webb after tagging him for 13 earned runs across four starts last season. While we've seen a couple of offensive breakouts from the Giants this season, I do think it's going to be a struggle for them to manufacture offense on most nights. We certainly saw that against the Royals over the weekend as they were barely able to salvage Sunday's series-finale with an eighth-inning rally. Here, they'll be in tough against a Dodgers bullpen that is in line for a bounce-back series, having logged a 4.68 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in a reasonable 32 2/3 innings. The Giants 'pen has recorded a 5.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 30 frames so far this season. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
04-10-23 | A's v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Baltimore at 6:35 pm et on Monday. This game pits a matchup of two offenses looking to explode after getting held down by superior pitching over the weekend. The A's were completely shut down by Rays starters Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen and that certainly wasn't unexpected. Keep in mind, Oakland had plated at least four runs in four straight games prior to those shutout losses. The Orioles couldn't get anything going against Yankees impressive rookie Jhony Brito and Nestor Cortes Jr. They scored just four runs across those two contests after plating seven in a one-run victory on Friday. JP Sears will take the ball for the A's on Monday. He got off to a promising start with the Yankees last season but it seemed that the book was out on him as the season went on as he recorded a 4.70 FIP and 1.48 WHIP in 48 innings pitched with the A's. His counterpart on Monday will be Kyle Gibson. His numbers have gotten progressively worse over the last two seasons and he's not exactly off to a banner start this year either. Gibson has posted a 4.73 FIP through his first two starts, allowing six earned runs in 12 innings of work. Note that the 'over' is 74-49 all-time (average of 10.0 total runs per game) with Gibson pitching at home and now he moves to a hitter-friendly park in Baltimore. The two bullpens in this matchup have been a mixed bag this season. The A's 'pen checks in sporting a 4.46 ERA and 1.40 WHIP after getting roughed up by the Rays over the weekend. The O's relief corps' has posted a 3.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP but has already blown a pair of saves. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
04-09-23 | Rangers v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. We saw a much higher-scoring game than expected in this matchup yesterday as the Cubs tacked on seven runs over their final three turns at bat in a 10-3 rout. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair as the Rangers send Jon Gray to the hill against Jameson Taillon of the Cubs. Gray had a terrific first season with the Rangers last year, posting a 3.80 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. To say he excelled in the Spring this year would be an understatement as he logged a 1.02 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work. While he wasn't overly sharp in his first regular season outing, he did minimize the damage, allowing just two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings. It's a similar story for Cubs offseason acquisition Taillon. He had a strong Spring, posting a 0.76 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings. Last season he recorded a 3.94 FIP and 1.13 WHIP with the Yankees. In his Cubs regular season debut last week, Taillon got worked over a bit over four innings, yielding three earned runs on seven hits. I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here as he makes his second start of the campaign at Wrigley Field. While things fell apart for the Rangers bullpen yesterday, it had been one of the strongest relief corps' in baseball in the early stages of the season and I'm not sure too much will be asked of it here given Gray's ability to work deep into the game. The Cubs 'pen has logged a less than impressive collective ERA but entered yesterday's game sporting a 1.15 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-09-23 | Red Sox v. Tigers +106 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Boston at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Red Sox have taken the first two games in this series in lopsided fashion but I look for the Tigers to answer back and avoid the sweep in Sunday's series finale. Kutter Crawford will take the ball for Boston. He was good, but certainly not great, during the Spring as he logged a 4.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The wheels came off rather quickly in his regular season debut as he was tagged for seven earned runs in just four innings with 10 of 22 batters he faced reaching base. Crawford has yet to really show he can excel at the big league level after posting a 4.34 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in his rookie campaign last year. Matt Boyd had a terrific Spring and while he labored through 4 1/3 innings in his first regular season outing against the Astros, he did limit the damage giving up only two earned runs. Boyd showed promise in his last season with the Tigers in 2021 before an injury-shortened 2022 campaign with the Mariners saw him work just north of 13 innings. Boston's bullpen holds the edge based on early season numbers but has already been overworked, logging 36 2/3 innings through eight games. Take Detroit (8*). |
|||||||
04-08-23 | Blue Jays v. Angels -109 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Toronto at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. While I do expect Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios to pitch better than he did in his regular season debut against the Royals, I'm not convinced we'll see him out-duel a still-underrated Tyler Anderson on Saturday night in Anaheim. Berrios generally does bounce back from bad performances but this is still a tricky spot after the Angels tagged him for six earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings in this ballpark last May. Berrios didn't have a great Spring, logging a 4.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings. In stark contrast, Anderson posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 13 1/3 Spring innings and picked up right where he left off in his first regular season start, allowing only six of 24 batters to reach base over six shutout innings against Oakland. While I'll give the Blue Jays bullpen the slight edge, the gap isn't perhaps as wide as you might expect with the Angels relief corps having posted a collective 4.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP so far this season. The Halos 'pen has also been asked to work just 23 innings through seven games which is certainly a positive. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
04-08-23 | Yankees -120 v. Orioles | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I think we can buy low with rookie starter Jhony Brito and the Yankees on Saturday as they look to get back at the Orioles after dropping yesterday's series-opener by a 7-6 score. Brito was impressive during the Spring as he posted a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, allowing only 12-of-52 batters to reach base in 13 innings of work. He picked up right where he left off in his first regular season outing, yielding just two hits and no walks over five shutout innings against the Giants. Cole Irvin joined the Orioles by way of the A's in the offseason. He has proven very hittable over the course of his young career, allowing 9.5 hits per nine innings. That continued in the Spring as he was tagged for 10.5 hits per nine frames in 14 1/3 innings logged. His regular season debut didn't go so well either as he lasted only four innings and gave up six earned runs on eight hits against the Red Sox. While the Yankees bullpen has posted the considerably better ERA, I do think the two relief corps' are more or less a wash so far this season. With that being said, I'm confident the Yankees can persevere in this bounce-back spot as they avoid losing consecutive games for the first time this season. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
04-08-23 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 0-11 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Tampa Bay at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. There's going to be a wide range of outcomes to deal with every time A's starter Shintaro Fujinami takes the ball in the early going this season. His first big league outing didn't go so well as he couldn't make it through three innings against the Angels, allowing eight earned runs on five hits and three walks. I do think he can bounce back here, however, noting that he has tremendous stuff, but needs to find some consistency. The Rays offense exploded in a blowout victory last night, paced by a Isaac Paredes grand slam. Here, they'll turn to Jeffrey Springs to start Game 2 of this series. Springs is one of the most underrated starters in baseball in my opinion. He had an incredible 2022 campaign, posting a 3.04 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in 135 1/3 innings. His first start this season was a gem as he allowed just one walk over six otherwise perfect innings, striking out 12 along the way. That comes on the heels of a phenomenal Spring that saw him toss 14 shutout frames. Both bullpens have been sharp in the early going this season with the A's relief corps posting a 3.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP and the Rays 'pen logging a 2.16 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-07-23 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 11 | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. Yesterday's series-opener produced a grand total of one run as the Rockies delivered a rare shutout victory behind a terrific pitching performance from Kyle Freeland. I expect nothing of the sort on Friday as Colorado sends Jose Urena to the mound against MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals. Gore faced the Rockies twice last season as a member of the Padres, including a start here at Coors Field where he allowed three home runs and eight earned runs in just four innings in a 10-4 loss. In his 2023 debut, Gore limited the damage in an eventual 4-1 home win over the Braves, but did struggle with his command, issuing four walks over 5 1/3 innings. That's been a common theme as he allowed 4.8 walks per nine innings and posted a 1.47 WHIP in his rookie campaign a year ago. It's a wonder that Jose Urena is still in a big league rotation. He logged a 4.65 FIP and 1.57 WHIP splitting time with the Brewers and Rockies last year. He struggled in the Spring with a 6.52 ERA and 1.35 WHIP and then labored through 2 1/3 innings, allowing four earned runs in his first regular season outing against the Padres. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence in this matchup. The Nationals relief corps has been the better of the two but hasn't enjoyed an off day since last Friday. The Rockies 'pen checks in sporting a collective 5.73 ERA and 1.46 WHIP but was helped out by Freeland working deep into yesterday's contest. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
04-07-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I do like the Brewers in this matchup but I think they're being priced appropriately so will go with a play on the total instead. Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty struggled mightily with his command in his first start of the campaign, walking seven Blue Jays batters while hitting another over five innings. With that being said, he didn't allow a hit in that contest and faced less than ideal conditions on a cold, windy day in St. Louis. Here, he'll look to bounce back in perfect conditions indoors in Milwaukee, noting that the Brewers are probably in line for some regression at the plate after racking up 35 runs over their last four games. Even after a rough Spring, not to mention a laborous 2022 campaign, I'm not ready to give up on Flaherty just yet as he still owns a career 3.94 FIP and 1.11 WHIP and it's not as if his velocity has fallen off a cliff despite shoulder issues. Countering Flaherty will be Brewers co-ace Brandon Woodruff. He was terrific in his first start of the season, allowing just one earned run on three hits over six innings against the Cubs. Woodruff had a solid Spring as well, logging a sparkling 0.83 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings. While he didn't factor into the All-Star Game or National League Cy Young voting last season, there was certainly nothing wrong with a 3.08 FIP and 1.07 WHIP. Both bullpens have been among the best in baseball in the early going this season with the Cards relief corps logging a collective 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and the Brewers putting together a 1.33 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Both will also have all hands on deck after an off day on Thursday. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
04-07-23 | Astros v. Twins -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota over Houston at 4:10 pm et on Friday. If the Twins are going to be true contenders in the American League this season, this is a good early 'measuring stick' series for them at home against the Astros. I like them to take the opener on Friday night with Sonny Gray taking the ball against Jose Urquidy. Gray hasn't received many accolades but he's pitched exceptionally well over the last few seasons in particular. Last year, Gray logged a 3.40 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. He had a terrific Spring, posting a 1.86 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings and while his command wasn't necessarily there in his regular season debut he did battle through it to work five innings, allowing just three hits and no earned runs against the Royals. He'll obviously face a tougher challenge here but I'm confident he'll be up for it. Urquidy has been a bit of an enigma for the Astros. Last year he posted a less than impressive 4.60 FIP but a solid 1.17 WHIP and that's been about par for the course for him over his 4+ year big league career. Urquidy didn't have a great Spring and followed that up with a shaky first regular season outing, allowing seven hits and three earned runs including two home runs in only four innings against the White Sox. While the Astros bullpen has been solid in the early going this season, it has already been overworked, logging 28 1/3 innings. Contrast that with the Twins relief corps, which has been asked to work just 18 2/3 innings, recording a collective 3.37 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Take Minnesota (10*). |
|||||||
04-06-23 | Dodgers -144 v. Diamondbacks | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The D'Backs have hung tough through their first six games this season, managing to split a pair of road series' against tonight's opponent, the Dodgers, and the Padres. While I do think the Snakes can surprise in the N.L. West this season, I still feel there's a considerable gap between these two clubs and will back the Dodgers and starter Dustin May in a 'revenge' spot on Thursday. May was masterful in his season debut against these same D'Backs last weekend but was ultimately saddled with a no-decision in a 2-1 loss. After a terrific Spring, May picked up right where he left off, tossing seven innings of three-hit shutout ball against Arizona. Note that May has only gotten limited work in during the early stages of his big league career but when he's healthy, he's capable of big things, as he showed during his rookie campaign back in 2020 when he finished top-five in National League Rookie of the Year voting. Merrill Kelly will counter for the D'Backs. We saw an alarming trend emerge during his Spring starts as he issued four walks in only seven innings of work and that lack of command seems to have carried over to the regular season as well as he handed out four free passes in just 3 2/3 innings against the Dodgers last weekend. Los Angeles has now seen Kelly a whopping six times since the start of last season. Last Friday marked the first time in any of those six games that Arizona actually managed to pick up a victory. Kelly has allowed 29 earned runs on 53 hits in his last 38 2/3 innings pitched against Los Angeles. Finally, I'll point out that the Snakes bullpen has recorded a collective 4.77 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 22 2/3 innings this season while the Dodgers relief corps has posted a sparkling 2.84 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
04-06-23 | Padres v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. This game features one of the best pitching matchups on Thursday's board as the Padres send left-hander Blake Snell to the hill against super-soph Spencer Strider of the Braves. Snell has settled in nicely since joining the Padres prior to the 2021 campaign. He recorded a 3.82 FIP and 1.32 WHIP in 128 2/3 innings that season before improving on those numbers with a 2.80 FIP and 1.20 WHIP in 128 frames of work last year. Snell has the benefit of having faced the Braves only once before with that start coming back in 2018 (he allowed one earned run in 6 1/3 innings in a 1-0 loss). Spencer Strider finished second in National League Rookie of the Year voting last year and probably should have received votes for the Cy Young as well as he posted a sparkling 1.83 FIP and 0.96 WHIP in 131 2/3 innings. Like Snell against the Braves, Strider will have the element of surprise working in his favor here having never faced the Padres previously. The Braves bullpen has been outstanding in the early going this season and while the Padres relief corps' has struggled, it does have the advantage of having had yesterday off so it will be all hands on deck for Thursday's series-opener. All three meetings here in Atlanta last season went 'over' the total but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
04-06-23 | Giants +122 v. White Sox | 16-6 | Win | 122 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. Alex Wood finally gets his first start of the season for the Giants on Thursday and I look for him to outduel White Sox veteran Lance Lynn. Wood had a fine Spring, posting a 3.60 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Last season, he recorded in inflated 5.10 ERA but that didn't tell the whole story as he logged a solid 3.76 FIP and 1.24 WHIP. Lynn labored to the tune of a 4.30 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 14 2/3 Spring innings and didn't pitch particularly well in his regular season debut either, allowing just two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings but posting a 6.02 FIP. Behind Lynn is a White Sox bullpen that has logged a collective 7.97 ERA and 2.16 WHIP in 20 1/3 innings of work this season. The Giants 'pen hasn't been lights out either, posting a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.53 WHIP but at least has the benefit of being relatively fresh, working just 16 1/3 innings to date. Take San Francisco (8*). |
|||||||
04-05-23 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Milwaukee at 1:40 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive 'over' results to open this series and it's had everything to do with the Brewers hot bats as they've plated 19 runs while shutting out the Mets in consecutive games. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as New York sends left-hander David Peterson to the mound against Brewers ace Corbin Burnes. Peterson had a fine Spring, not allowing a single earned run in in 12 innings of work. Walks were an issue as he handed out eight free passes but he put those concerns to rest in his regular season debut as he walked just one in five innings (while allowing one earned run on a solo home run) in an encouraging performance against the Marlins. Note that the Brewers have seen just one left-handed starter this season and struggled at the dish in that game against Justin Steele of the Cubs, ultimately prevailing by a 3-1 score. Burnes struggled in his first start of the campaign in Chicago but that's not all that unique as the exact same thing happened in his season debut at Wrigley Field last year. He proceeded to strike out eight batters over seven shutout innings in his next outing last April. We're talking about an elite starter that has finished at least top-seven in N.L. Cy Young voting in each of the last three seasons. I'm confident we'll see Burnes pitch well against the slumping Mets bats on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-04-23 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams have alternated high and low-scoring games out of the gates this season and last night we saw a slugfest as the Dodgers won by a 13-4 score. I expect a reversal of course once again here as Colorado sends veteran German Marquez to the hill against Julio Urias of the Dodgers. Marquez was sharp in his season debut, allowing just two earned runs on five hits (and no walks) in six innings against the Padres. He saw plenty of these Dodgers last season and actually fared alright, allowing exactly one earned run while lasting at least six innings in two of those five outings. I like the form Marquez has shown going back to the Spring, when he recorded a sparkling 0.53 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 17 innings of work. Urias was once one of the more underrated starters in baseball but perhaps not so anymore as he's finished seventh and third in National League Cy Young voting over the last two seasons and even received MVP votes in 2022. Like Marquez, Urias tossed six solid innings in his first outing this season and also had a fine Spring that included work in the World Baseball Classic. Urias worked at least six innings in four of five starts against the Rockies last season, allowing two earned runs or less in three of those outings. While the Dodgers are absolutely loaded again offensively, I think it's too early in the campaign to expect them to hang a crooked number on the board every night. Meanwhile, Colorado has plated just 36 runs in its last 14 games played here at Chavez Ravine. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-03-23 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
N.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. We saw a low-scoring game here at Great American Ballpark on Sunday but that should be the exception rather than the rule this season. I like the way the Reds are built offensively - a perfect fit for the bandbox they play their home games in. They'll get the opportunity to tee off on Cubs journeyman starter Drew Smyly on Monday, noting that the veteran left-hander posted an ERA north of six and a 1.84 WHIP in 16 1/3 innings in the Spring, tagged for six home runs along the way. Speaking of Spring struggles, Reds starter Connor Overton was lit up to the tune of a 15.43 ERA and 2.49 WHIP in 11 2/3 innings. He allowed six home runs. Again, that doesn't bode well as he prepares to make his first start of the season at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. While it's important not to put too much stock in Spring Training results, sometimes the numbers are alarming enough to cause concern and I feel that's the case here. Both lineups have shown some pop in the early going this season with the Cubs scoring 10 runs through three games against a tough Brewers pitching staff and the Reds plating 13 runs in their three-game set against the Pirates. Of note, the Cubs bullpen has already given up nine earned runs on 10 hits in just 11 innings logged. The Reds 'pen has been better, but also owns a less-than-impressive 7:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-02-23 | Tigers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Rays bats exploded for 12 runs in yesterday's rout of the Tigers but I think performances are likely to be few and far between for this lineup this season. While Sunday's series-finale features a pitching matchup lacking in star power, it's one with no shortage of quality nonetheless. Joey Wentz will take the ball for Detroit. He struggled to keep the ball in the yard in the Spring, leading to some inflated numbers but that was in just 14 2/3 innings of work. In his first big league season a year ago, Wentz logged 32 2/3 innings and posted a 3.54 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. Home runs weren't an issue as he allowed just 0.6 long balls per nine innings. Jeffrey Springs will counter for Tampa Bay. He improved on a stellar 2021 showing by recording a 3.04 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in a career-high 135 1/3 innings of work last season. That included a start against these same Tigers in August as he didn't allow a single earned run over six frames of four-hit ball. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 with Springs on the mound and the total set between 7.0 and 8.5 over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of just 6.6 runs scored. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
03-31-23 | Mets v. Marlins +105 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over New York at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Mets took the opener of this series last night as the two starters duelled for five innings before things broke open in the second half of the game. Here, I look for the Marlins to answer back with Jesus Luzardo taking the ball against David Peterson of the Mets in a lefty-lefty matchup. Luzardo had a fine Spring, posting a 4.34 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to go along with a 19:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 2/3 innings of work. I would put Luzardo in the undervalued category after he recorded a 3.12 FIP and 1.04 WHIP in just north of 100 innings pitched last season. His counterpart, David Peterson, didn't give up a single earned run in the Spring but also pitched just 12 innings, issuing eight walks along the way. Peterson, like Luzardo, quietly had an impressive 2022 campaign, posting a 3.64 FIP and 1.33 WHIP. With that said, he allowed more hits, more walks and recorded fewer strikeouts per nine innings compared to Luzardo. Also note that the Marlins got to see him three times, seemingly getting better each time they faced him, culminating with a 6-3 win here at home in which they chased him from the game before the end of the fourth inning. The Mets saw Luzardo twice last season and he was more effective in his second outing against them, holding them to just two earned runs on four hits over six frames. The bullpens are pretty much a wash in my opinion and both had to work around three innings in yesterday's contest. Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Phillies +135 v. Astros | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Phillies to extend this series to a seventh game with Zack Wheeler on the mound against Framber Valdez on Saturday. Philadelphia has yet to figure Valdez out in two previous looks at him but now they'll be seeing him for the third time in just over a month and I look for them to finally make the necessary adjustments and get to him on Saturday night in Houston. Speaking of adjustments, Wheeler will need to make his after he got rocked for four earned runs in just five innings in Game 2 of this series one week ago tonight. That was his first career outing against the Astros. I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here, noting that he had allowed a grand total of just six earned runs over his previous seven outings going back to September. Both bullpens have been lights out in this series and I expect more of the same here. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
|||||||
11-02-22 | Astros v. Phillies +102 | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Aaron Nola has not pitched well in his last two starts after turning in a pair of terrific outings to open the postseason. Just as I alluded to with Ranger Suarez last night, who had struggled mightily in his previous start against the Astros in early October, I look for Nola to make the necessary adjustments here and put his team on the brink of a World Series title. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He hasn't started since October 22nd when he held the Yankees to just one hit over 5 1/3 shutout innings. The Phillies aren't likely to be easy intimidated at the plate as I get the sense they feel they can hit anyone right now. We'll back them again here. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
|||||||
11-01-22 | Astros v. Phillies +114 | 0-7 | Win | 114 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take a shot with the Phillies on Tuesday as they return home after getting what they wanted in Houston, a 1-1 split in the first two games of this series. I like the fact that Ranger Suarez will get the start for Philadelphia here. He struggled in a start against the Astros back in early October but I expect him to make the necessary adjustments here, noting that he gave the Phils a terrific outing against the Padres last round, allowing one earned run over five innings. Philadelphia is 10-6 when Suarez starts in an underdog role this season. Meanwhile, the Astros are just 10-22 in Lance McCullers Jr.'s 32 career starts when priced between +125 and -125 as is the case here. Speaking of adjustments, the Phillies hitters will be looking to make the necessary adjustments as well after McCullers held them to one earned run over six innings back on October 3rd. That was in Houston. I expect a different story to unfold here in Philadelphia. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
|||||||
10-15-22 | Braves -118 v. Phillies | 3-8 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. After watching the raucous crowd supporting the Phillies yesterday, bettors may be a little hesitant to back the defending World Series champion Braves on Saturday, even as they face elimination. I'm confident we'll see them bounce back from yesterday's lopsided defeat, however, as they send veteran Charlie Morton to the hill against Noah Syndergaard of the Phillies. Morton struggled in his most recent start against Philadelphia back on September 25th, but the Braves still won that game, right here in the City of Brotherly Love, by a score of 8-7. I'm confident we'll see Morton make the necessary adjustments here and I don't expect him to come unglued the way rookie Spencer Strider did in the third inning yesterday. Syndergaard wasn't necessarily brought over to Philadelphia prior to the trade deadline with big starts like this in mind. He was acquired to give the team some additional depth in the starting rotation. It was always going to be guys like Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola that would be asked to do much of the heavy-lifting. Since joining the Phillies, Syndergaard has posted a 3.66 FIP and 1.31 WHIP, allowing a whopping 10.4 hits per nine innings. He's done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, but I'm confident in Atlanta's ability to manufacture runs in this one, as it ultimately forces a fifth and deciding game in this series. Take Atlanta (8*). |
|||||||
10-14-22 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 1:05 pm et on Friday. PLEASE NOTE: This is the same play that we originally had when the game was scheduled for Thursday night. We missed with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play on Friday, however, as we work with an even lower posted total. Nestor Cortes has enjoyed a tremendous campaign. He hasn't pitched since October 1st though - nearly two weeks ago - and I can't help but feel there's nowhere to go but down after he allowed just one hit in each of his last two outings, and having not allowed a single home run over his last five starts. Note that the Guardians will be seeing Cortes for the third time this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 21-12 with Cleveland seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent where it scored one run or less this season, with that situation producing an average total of 9.3 runs. The Guardians will hand the ball to their ace Shane Bieber after he was lights out in his lone Wild Card round start against the Rays last week. While Bieber's numbers are tremendous, I feel like every time I watch him pitch, he's laboring. I just don't find anything seems to come all that easy for the admittedly 'elite' right-hander. The Yankees will obviously make opposing pitchers work for everything. They average 5.1 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching and 5.2 rpg at home this season. Interestingly, the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 with Bieber starting in an underdog role priced between +125 and +175 this season, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 4-1 in Yankees home games where the total is set at 6.0 or 6.5 this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-12-22 | Phillies v. Braves -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NLDS Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 4:35 pm et on Wednesday. It's not a difficult decision to back the Braves against the red hot Phillies in Game 2 of this NLDS on Wednesday afternoon. Atlanta has one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball on the mound in 21-game winner Kyle Wright. While I'm not looking to make a habit of fading Phillies starter Zack Wheeler, I'll make an exception here. The Braves are 18-3 in their last 21 games after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.9 runs on average in that spot. They're also 22-3 as a favorite with Wright starting this season, outscoring the opposition by 2.2 runs on average in that situation. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
10-11-22 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 6.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Guardians' Wild Card series against the Rays saw just four runs scored in 24 innings. I expect a much different story to unfold as Cleveland moves on to face the Yankees in the Bronx on Tuesday. Gerrit Cole will get the start for New York. The Guardians are certainly familiar with him as he's made 10 career starts against them. Only once has Cole completely shut them down - that performance coming in a game back in April of this year. Keep in mind, that contest still totalled 12 runs. High-scoring games have been the norm when Cole faces Cleveland with four of his last five outings against it reaching at least 12 runs. Cal Quantrill will counter for the Guardians. He faced the Yankees just once previously this season and that was his only career outing against them. New York had little trouble in that contest, reaching Quantrill for three earned runs on six hits while striking out only two times and walking on three occasions over 6 1/3 innings. It's worth noting that the Guardians have been a considerably higher-scoring club on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 4.6 runs per game compared to their 4.3 rpg season scoring average. Likewise for the Yankees at home where they've averaged 5.2 rpg compared to their season scoring average of 5.0 rpg. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
10-08-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -150 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
A.L. Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Toronto over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blue Jays offense was non-existent against Mariners ace Luis Castillo yesterday, falling by a 4-0 score in a game that was never competitive. Here, I look for Toronto to answer back and salvage its season with a victory behind Kevin Gausman on Saturday afternoon. It may be surprising to some that Gausman actually led the league in FIP with a 2.38 this season. He did allow 3.71 runs per nine innings but that's still better than his counterpart on Saturday, Robbie Ray's 3.81 mark. Gausman didn't necessarily have his best stuff in his lone outing against Seattle this season, allowing two earned runs over five innings back in mid-May, but he does own a career 2.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in seven outings against the Mariners. Note that Ray checks in sporting a 4.17 FIP on the campaign. Note that Toronto has outscored opponents by 0.5 runs on average when playing at home off a loss this season (32-game sample size). The Blue Jays are also a long-term 309-263 (+55 net games) after scoring one run or less in their previous contest, as is the case here. Take Toronto (10*). |
|||||||
10-07-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -125 | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Blue Jays on Friday as they hand the ball to Alek Manoah for the opener of their Wild Card showdown against the Mariners. Manoah may be making his first postseason start but he has plenty of big game experience pitching for Toronto down the stretch. In that time, Manoah thrived, allowing just six earned runs over his final eight regular season starts, covering a span of 54 innings of work. Impressively, he lasted at least six innings in all eight of those outings. Mariners starter Luis Castillo didn't bring a wealth of big game experience to the team coming from the perennial bottom-feeding Reds. We saw Castillo wilt under the pressure down the stretch, allowing 13 earned runs over his final five regular season outings - a span of 27 2/3 innings. Castillo lasted at least six innings in only two of those five starts. The bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup but I'll give the Jays bats a considerable edge, noting that they averaged 6.0 runs per game over their final seven regular season contests while the Mariners put up just 4.9 rpg over that same stretch. Take Toronto (8*). |
|||||||
10-05-22 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. Neither of these teams have been scoring down the stretch, looking generally disinterested in doing anything other than 'playing out the string'. I expect nothing different in Wednesday's season-finale in Cincinnati. Adrian Sampson has actually been one of the Cubs most reliable starting pitchers this season, checking in with a 3.81 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.4 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for his opponent on Wednesday, Graham Ashcraft. He's had a trying rookie campaign in Cincinnati and will be facing the Cubs for the fourth time. On a positive note, he has limited the walks (2.3 per nine innings) and home runs (0.9 per nine innings). With the Reds having dropped each of his last three outings against the Cubs he'll be out for revenge here. While it's had a lot to do with facing disinterested opponents, the two bullpens have been terrific down the stretch with the Cubs relief corps posting a 2.28 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over the last seven games and the Reds 'pen recording a 2.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 7 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Josh Winder will get the start for the visiting Twins. The White Sox will be getting their second look at him in less than a week after plating three earned runs in 4 2/3 innings against him on September 28th. He didn't give up a home run in that outing but that was an unlikely occurrence as he has been tagged for at least one long ball in four of his last five starts, giving up two in three of those outings. For the season, Winder owns a 4.90 FIP and 1.25 WHIP while yielding 1.5 home runs per nine innings. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito has labored through the 2022 campaign, recording a 4.07 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while giving up 1.4 home runs per nine innings (not to mention just shy of 10.0 hits per nine frames). The Twins will be getting their third look at the right-hander since September 4th, having scored four earned runs off of him in 10 innings in those two previous contests. Between the two bullpens this season, we've seen a whopping 47 combined blown saves so the potential for late runs is there as well. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee -1.5 runs over Arizona at 7:40 pm et on Monday. I understand the hesitation to lay an extra run with a Brewers team that has had a tough enough time simply winning games lately, let alone by margin. With that being said, I like the spot on Monday as the Brew Crew look to bounce back from consecutive one-run losses against the Marlins as they host a D'Backs club simply playing out the string on the final stop of this road trip that has already taken them to Houston and San Francisco. Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff has supplanted Corbin Burnes as the team's 'ace', reeling off a stretch of four consecutive incredible outings. Over that stretch, Woodruff has allowed just four earned runs on 18 hits while striking out 42 and walking only five in 26 innings of work. Arizona will counter with rookie left-hander Tommy Henry. He got off to a reasonably solid start this season but the wheels have since come off as he's been tagged for 17 earned runs on 20 hits over his last three starts, covering a span of just 13 innings. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has posted a 5.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Noting that the Brewers have won each of Woodruff's last three starts by 3+ runs, I'm comfortable backing them on the run-line here. Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-22 | Royals +121 v. Guardians | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. This will be our last chance to back Brady Singer this season and I like his chances of lifting the Royals out of their current slide. Singer checks in having posted a 0.45 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his last three starts. Kansas City has incredibly won eight of his last nine trips to the hill. Note that the Royals did lose in a Singer start against these same Guardians earlier this month but I look for him to get his revenge here. Here, we'll note that the Royals are 21-13 in Singer's last 34 starts against A.L. Central opponents over the last two seasons. Aaron Civale will take the ball for Cleveland. He owns a 4.41 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over his last three starts. Note that the Guardians have won just twice in his five career outings against Kansas City including an 11-1 defeat in his lone previous start against the Royals here at home. Take Kansas City (10*). |
|||||||
09-28-22 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen two high-scoring games to open this series and I expect more of the same on Wednesday. Dean Kremer will take the ball for the playoff-hungry Orioles. Kremer is coming off a complete game shutout against the Astros - an incredible feat to be sure. However, here he's in a tough spot as he makes his third consecutive start on just four days' rest. Note that prior to tossing that complete game shutout he had allowed seven earned runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 16 2/3 innings. The Red Sox will be seeing Kremer for the third time this season and over the course of his career, the right-hander has posted a 7.23 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in four starts against Boston. Veteran left-hander Rich Hill will counter for Boston. He pitched five shutout innings against the Orioles just a couple of weeks ago. I'm confident we'll see the O's make the necessary adjustments here. Note that when Baltimore previously saw Hill on May 30th, it plated six earned runs in just four innings. Both bullpens are a mess right now. Baltimore's 'pen entered last night's action sporting a 7.25 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven games. The Red Sox relief corps recorded a 6.26 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-27-22 | Royals v. Tigers -103 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit over Kansas City at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams are playing some of their best baseball of the season down the stretch, not coincidentally as they deal with zero pressure having been out of the playoff race for months. Zack Greinke will get the start for the visiting Royals on Tuesday. He hasn't been awful this year, but he hasn't been good either. Greinke checks in with a 4.13 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.6 runs per nine innings. Behind him is a Royals bullpen that continues to struggle, having posted a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over the last seven games. Detroit will counter with rookie Joey Wentz. He's been quietly impressive since returning to the bigs, lowering his FIP to 2.94 and his WHIP to 0.96 while yielding just 3.13 runs per nine innings in five starts this season. He actually faced the Royals on the road back on September 9th and didn't allow a single earned run over 6 2/3 innings - the best start of his young career. Should Wentz falter, the Tigers bullpen behind him has been solid lately, logging a collective 3.63 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over the last seven games. The Detroit 'pen has blown only six saves at home this season while recording a 3.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Take Detroit (10*). |
|||||||
09-26-22 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The 'under' cashed in all three games between these two teams last week but since then the Braves have reeled off three consecutive 'over' results in a series in Philadelphia. You would have to go back to September 16th to find the last time the Nationals posted an 'over', but I look for that to change tonight. Bryce Elder will get the start for the visiting Braves. He's been a different pitcher in his last three starts compared to four rocky outings back in April. With that being said, he still owns a 4.09 FIP and 1.33 WHIP at the big league level this season and here the Nationals will be seeing him for the second time in less than a week after scoring one run on four hits and two walks over 5 2/3 innings against him last week. Note that Elder allowed 1.2 home runs per nine innings at the AAA level this season but has gone three consecutive big league starts without giving up a single long ball. I'm not convinced that will continue. Cory Abbott will counter for Washington. He's been awful this season, posting a 6.09 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while allowing 2.1 home runs and 4.85 runs per nine innings. The Braves will be getting their second look at Abbott after plating four runs on six hits including a home run over four innings last week. Abbott didn't strike out a single batter while walking two in that contest. The Nationals bullpen is a concern as well as it has logged just shy of 33 innings over its last eight games. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-24-22 | Mariners -1.5 v. Royals | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Royals took the opener of this series last night, their fourth consecutive win. The Mariners have been stumbling lately but we've picked our spots wisely backing them and we'll do so again here with Logan Gilbert on the mound against Kris Bubic. Gilbert is in terrific form, having allowed just two earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 23 innings. The Mariners last three victories with Gilbert starting have come by seven, three and eight-run margins. It's been a much different story for Kris Bubic of the Royals. He has allowed 10 earned runs over his last two outings. He checks in with an 8.36 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over his last three starts. The Royals have dropped his last seven starts with all seven of those losses coming by 2+ runs and the last three by three runs or more. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
09-23-22 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Friday. We saw a low-scoring game to open this series last night as the Cubs delivered their third straight victory while handing the Pirates their seventh consecutive defeat. Here, I'm anticipating a higher-scoring contest as dictated by the poor starting pitching matchup. The book is already out on Cubs rookie Javier Assad and it's not a good one. Assad has been touched up for nine earned runs on 12 hits and eight walks, not to mention three home runs over his last three starts, covering a span of just 13 1/3 innings. While the Pirates bats have been quiet, we know they're capable of outlier performances as they just hung eight runs on the Yankees three nights ago. Bryse Wilson gets another turn in the Buccos rotation out of necessity only. He's been awful this year, posting a 6.72 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Over his last three outings, those numbers rise to 7.67 and 1.67, respectively. To make matters worse, the Cubs will be seeing Wilson for the third time this season having already plated six earned runs in nine innings against him. They also faced him twice last season, scoring six earned runs in eight innings. You get the picture. Even if the starters do manage to pull rabbits out of their hat in this one, we have the potential for late runs with a Pirates bullpen that has recorded a collective 9.00 ERA and 2.09 WHIP over the last seven games and a Cubs 'pen that has posted a 4.54 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 13 blown saves on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-22-22 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The D'Backs have surprisingly come back with consecutive wins over the Dodgers after opening the series with two straight losses. Here, I look for Los Angeles to answer back in the finale of an extended five-game set. To say that Dodgers starter Julio Urias has owned the D'Backs over the course of his career would be an understatement. He has posted a sparkling 1.59 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in seven outings against them with the Dodgers going 6-1 in those games. All six of those victories have come by 2+ runs. D'Backs starter Zac Gallen actually outdueled Urias in a previous matchup back in late April this season. Gallen didn't allow a run over six innings while Urias gave up a solo home run in an eventual 3-1 Arizona win. I look for Urias and the Dodgers to get an ounce of revenge here, noting that Gallen will be starting on four days' rest after allowing five earned runs over his last two starts, covering a span of 11 1/3 innings. While the D'Backs bullpen has held up reasonably well over the last couple of nights, it still entered last night's contest having converted just 17 saves while blowing 13 on the road this season, posting a collective 4.79 ERA and 1.40 WHIP along the way. The Los Angeles relief corps entered last night's game having logged a 3.39 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while making good on 23 saves and blowing only nine at home this season. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
09-21-22 | Giants v. Rockies +124 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over San Francisco at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Giants have taken the first two games in this series but I look for the Rockies to answer back on Wednesday. Logan Webb carries a reputation as a front-of-the-rotation starter for San Francisco but he's looked anything but the part lately, lasting six innings or more only twice in his last six starts, failing to make it through the fifth inning in three of those outings. The Rockies have already seen him (and beat him) twice this season, scoring five earned runs on 11 hits in 12 2/3 innings. Note that Webb has recorded more than six strikeouts just once in eight career starts against Colorado. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies. He's faced San Francisco once this season, holding it to three earned runs over six innings in a 5-3 win as a +225 underdog back on June 7th. For as poorly as the veteran right-hander has pitched at times this season, the Rockies bats do tend to come alive for him, noting that they've won nine of his 15 home outings here in 2022. Marquez actually brings his best form of the season into this start having lasted seven innings and allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four trips to the hill. While the Giants are technically still alive in the N.L. Wild Card race, the reality is they're not going to make it as they sit 9.5 games back of the third and final spot. Despite losing the first two games in this series, the Rockies have been battling, going 7-5 over their last 12 contests. Take Colorado (10*). |
|||||||
09-21-22 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game to open this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Angels spot starter Tucker Davidson probably isn't long for a big league rotation. He wasn't able to stick with the Braves organization and has struggled mightily since joining the Angels, posting a 5.99 FIP and 1.78 WHIP while allowing just shy of 7.0 runs per nine innings in 42 2/3 innings of work this season. The Rangers will counter with a struggling pitcher of their own in Dane Dunning. He checks in having allowed 18 earned runs over his last five starts, covering a span of 24 1/3 innings. Dunning owns a 4.49 FIP and 1.46 WHIP while yielding north of 4.7 runs per nine innings this season. Here, Dunning will be facing the Angels for the fifth time this season. Los Angeles should be happy to see him noting that he owns a career 5.75 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in seven career starts in this series. Neither bullpen is anything to write home about and with both starters likely to make early exits, the opportunity should be there for plenty of tack-on runs late. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
09-20-22 | Astros v. Rays OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a predictably low-scoring game between these two teams to open this series last night as two underrated starters went head-to-head in Luis Garcia and Drew Rasmussen. Here, I think the pendulum swings the other way as we have perhaps two overrated (I use that term in a relative sense) starters in Cristian Javier and Shane McClanahan taking the hill. Note that we haven't seen consecutive meetings between these two teams stay 'under' seven total runs since back in the 2020 postseason. Javier enters this start after tossing six shutout innings last time out but that performance came against the light-hitting Tigers. Prior to that he had given up a home run in three straight starts, walking six in 16 1/3 innings over that stretch. The Rays saw Javier once previously, that coming last season as they chased him after scoring three earned runs in five innings in a 5-4 victory. McClanahan hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts - the first time he's accomplished that feat all season. I'm not convinced he's had his best stuff lately, noting that he hasn't recorded double-digit strikeouts in a start since way back on July 2nd after doing so four times in a 12-start stretch at that time. Note that six of McClanahan's last seven starts have gone 'over' 6.5 total runs. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-19-22 | Mariners -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 9-1 | Win | 120 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Monday. The Mariners have inexplicably dropped the first three games of this series and while the Angels would like nothing better than to play spoiler against their division rivals in Monday afternoon's series-finale, I expect Seattle to have other ideas. The Mariners have the right pitcher on the mound to stem the tide in Logan Gilbert. He's arguably been their best starter all season, checking in with a 3.46 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while holding opponents to just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. Note that the Mariners are 4-1 in Gilbert's five career outings against the Angels with three of those wins coming by at least two runs. Jose Suarez will counter for Los Angeles. He owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while yielding north of 3.9 runs per nine innings. The Mariners chased him after 5 1/3 innings in an 8-2 win here in Anaheim back on August 16th. While things have gone well for the Angels in this series, their bullpen still entered yesterday's action sporting a 6.29 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last seven games. The Mariners 'pen went into Sunday's contest with a 3.56 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 20 saves converted and only six blown on the road this season. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
09-17-22 | White Sox -1.5 v. Tigers | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Tigers had arguably their most favorable starting pitching matchup of this series last night and took advantage in a 3-2 victory. As much as they'd like to play spoiler again on Saturday, I expect the White Sox to answer back. Johnny Cueto will take the ball for Chicago. He's enjoyed a 'turn back the clock' season of sorts but certainly didn't have his best stuff in a blowout loss against the A's in Oakland last time out. This is the type of big game the Sox brought the veteran in for and I expect him to pitch well, noting he owns a 2.30 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 11 previous road starts this season. The last time he faced Detroit back in early July he tossed eight shutout innings in one of his best outings of the season. Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for the Tigers. He has labored through 13 starts this season, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Over his last three outings he has been tagged for 13 earned runs in 16 innings, yielding five home runs over that stretch. He was ineffective in his lone previous start against Chicago this season, giving up three earned runs while lasting only four innings. Noting that each of the White Sox last six victories has come by 2+ runs, I'm comfortable laying the extra run here. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
09-16-22 | Phillies v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 115 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The Braves have lost four of their last five games but they had the benefit of an off-day following a long road trip yesterday and I expect them to right the ship on Friday against division-rival Philadelphia. N.L. Cy Young candidate Max Fried would seem to be the right guy to have on the mound to start the turn-around. Fried checks in with a 2.42 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with the Braves winning 11 of his 16 home starts this season. The last time he pitched against Philadelphia, the Braves fell by a 6-4 score on the road. It was still a fine outing for Fried as he allowed just three earned runs while striking out eight and not walking a single batter over six innings. His counterpart on Friday will be fellow left-hander Ranger Suarez of the Phillies. He's had an up-and-down season and should be in tough here as the Braves get their fourth look at him, having already plated 12 runs in 16 innings against him this season. Note that of Suarez's nine team losses this season, eight of them have come by multiple runs. The only one that didn't was a game where Philadelphia didn't score a run in a 1-0 defeat against Cincinnati. The Braves two previous victories against Suarez this season came by scores of 8-4 and 4-1. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
09-16-22 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Royals 3-2 loss in Minnesota last night. The Kansas City bats were quiet once again but I think a change of scenery will serve them well as they head to Fenway Park on Friday. Jon Heasley will take the ball for the visiting Royals. He's had a miserable rookie campaign and things certainly haven't gotten any better down the stretch as he's been tagged for 12 earned runs in 16 innings over his last three outings, yielding four home runs along the way. His last four road starts have resulted in games totalling 23, 13, 10 and 14 runs. Michael Wacha has actually been terrific for the Red Sox this season but I can't help but after stringing together three consecutive quality starts on the road, I think he gets a dose of reality back at home. The 'under' cashed in each of Wacha's first five starts this season but high-scoring games have been the norm since then as the 'over' has gone 8-5-1 over his last 14 starts. The last time he pitched here at Fenway Park back on August 26th we saw 17 total runs in a game against the Rays. The Royals bats have been quiet but they still average 3.8 runs per game away from home this season and I think that will be enough to help this one 'over' the total on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-15-22 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Royals bats stayed quiet for a second consecutive night. Interestingly, Kansas City has now gone eight games without scoring at least six runs - its second-longest such streak of the season. I feel the Royals are well-positioned to bust out at the plate against Twins starter Dylan Bundy on Thursday. Bundy got rocked for seven earned runs on 12 hits including three home runs against the Guardians last time out. You would have to go all the way back to June 24th to find the last time he lasted at least six innings in a start, illustrating his lack of effectiveness. He checks in allowing a lofty 9.6 hits and 4.83 runs per nine innings this season. Daniel Lynch hasn't been much better for the Royals - in fact, he's been worse. Lynch gives up a whopping 10.5 hits and 5.38 runs per nine innings this season. He's clearly wearing down as we hit the stretch run, having allowed 17 earned runs in just 18 1/3 innings over his last four outings. Neither bullpen instills much confidence as the two relief corps have combined for 39 blown saves this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-14-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +120 | 3-5 | Win | 120 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. I can't help but feel this is a 'throwaway game' for the Dodgers after taking the first two games of the series in lopsided fashion. They'll send rookie Michael Grove to the hill. He hasn't fared particularly well in 9 1/3 innings at the big league level this season but worse still, he allowed 2.4 home runs and 5.3 walks per nine innings at the highest minor league level he pitched at last season (Double-A) and we're not talking about a small sample size as he's logged 71 innings. This year he has logged a 3.79 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, still yielding 1.3 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings in time split between Double and Triple-A. Zach Davies has held his own in three previous starts against the Dodgers this season with the D'Backs splitting his two home outings against them. He didn't have his best stuff last time out and paid the price at hitter-friendly Coors Field but I look for him to bounce back here at home where he owns a 3.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season. Take Arizona (8*). |
|||||||
09-14-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals +112 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 112 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis over Milwaukee at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers took the opener of this two-game set by an 8-4 score last night. I look for the Cardinals to bounce back on Wednesday. Corbin Burnes will take the ball for the Brewers. After topping out at six strikeouts in his previous five starts, he K'd 14 batters against the Giants last time out. You would have to go back six starts against the Cardinals to find the last time St. Louis picked up a win against Burnes. With that being said, I believe there's reason for optimism on Wednesday. Cards starter Adam Wainwright is one of the fiercest competitors in baseball so you can be sure his last two rocky outings haven't sat well with him. On a positive note, he's given up just one home run in his last nine starts and hasn't issued a walk in three of his last five outings. He checks in sporting a 2.65 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at home this season. With a comfortable cushion atop the N.L. Central Division, the Cards may not have a lot to motivate them at the moment but I believe avoiding a sweep at the hands of the division-rival Brewers should do the trick on Wednesday. Take St. Louis (10*). |
|||||||
09-14-22 | Cubs v. Mets -1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mets have inexplicably dropped the first two games against a Cubs team that is simply playing out the string at this point. I'm confident we'll see them answer back on Wednesday. Drew Smyly will take the ball for Chicago. He's coming off one of his best starts of the season, tossing seven innings of one-run ball against the Giants. Consistency hasn't been his calling card, however, noting that he was tagged for seven earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings against the Cardinals in the start previous to that. In 12 nighttime starts this season, the Cubs have won just twice and Smyly has recorded a 4.71 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. David Peterson will counter for New York. He's coming off a shaky outing against the Mets, allowing three earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings. There's still a lot to like about Peterson as he's allowed just one home run in his last six starts. In his lone previous outing against the Cubs this season he didn't allow an earned run over five innings, striking out eight along the way. Noting that the Mets last five wins have come by 4, 4, 10, 8 and 6 runs, I'm comfortable laying the extra run with the Mets here. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
09-13-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-1 | Win | 102 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants got past the Braves by a 3-2 score last night, taking advantage of an off night from the Atlanta offense. Here, I look for the visiting Braves to answer back and bring an end to their three-game slide. As I've talked about all season long, Braves starter Kyle Wright is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. With that being said, he's coming off his worst outing of the season last week against the A's. He also struggled in his lone previous start against the Giants this season. Noting that he has posted a 3.69 FIP and 1.15 WHIP while allowing only 3.4 runs per nine innings this season, I'm confident he'll make the necessary adjustments and bounce back here. Jakob Junis will counter for the Giants. He's labored through his last two starts, lasting just 4 1/3 innings in each outing. He checks in with a 3.82 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.1 runs per nine innings this season. The Giants bullpen held up well last night but still owns a less than impressive 4.12 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at home this season. The Braves 'pen on the other hand has posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while converting 26 saves and blowing only nine on the road. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
09-13-22 | Rockies v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The hard-charging White Sox still believe they have a shot at the postseason but this is precisely the type of matchup they'll need to take advantage of if they're to play their way into October. The Rockies are coming off a 4-2 homestand but the road hasn't been kind to them this season (that's nothing new). Colorado checks in a woeful 21-46 away from home this season where it has been outscored by 2.1 runs per game. Chad Kuhl will get the start for the visiting Rockies. He had a solid start to his Rockies tenure earlier this season but the wheels have since fallen off. Kuhl owns an ugly 6.29 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 13 road starts, averaging fewer than five innings per outing. That spells trouble when you consider Colorado's bullpen has posted a collective 5.27 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Michael Kopech hasn't been much better for Chicago but at least he's pitched well here at home where he owns a 2.97 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 12 starts. Behind him is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a collective 1.20 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
09-12-22 | Braves -170 v. Giants | 2-3 | Loss | -170 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. Tough turnaround for the Giants here as they played a night game in Chicago last night (they won 4-2) and now have to return home to host the Braves on Monday. Atlanta should be in a foul mood after dropping consecutive games against the Mariners over the weekend. I like the Braves chances of rebounding here with impressive rookie Spencer Strider getting the start. Strider will be out for revenge after he turned in one of his worst performances of the season against the Giants back in June (six ER in 3 2/3 innings). He's been terrific lately, allowing a grand total of five earned runs over his last five starts, covering a span of 31 innings. In his last 20 innings of work he's struck out 32 batters. Alex Cobb will counter for San Francisco. He lasted only 4 1/3 innings and allowed three earned runs on seven hits against the Dodgers last time out. Facing the Dodgers and Braves in succession is obviously a tall order for any pitcher and I expect Cobb to struggle again here. While the Braves bullpen coughed one up against the Mariners yesterday, it entered that contest sporting a collective 1.96 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Giants 'pen owns a 4.09 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with only 13 saves converted and seven blown at home this season. Take Atlanta (8*). |
|||||||
09-12-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back 10 games to find the last time the Dodgers posted an 'over' result. I don't expect that streak to continue on Monday, however. Los Angeles will send Tyler Anderson to the hill on Monday. The left-hander has enjoyed a career year and hasn't shown any signs of wear in the latter stages of the campaign as he's gone seven innings in three of his last four starts (and allowed just one earned run over 5 1/3 innings in the other). Anderson checks in sporting a 3.16 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 13 road starts this season and has allowed just two earned runs in 13 innings in two outings against the D'Backs. Rookie Ryne Nelson (a top-10 prospect in the D'Backs organization) will counter for Arizona. He was masterful in his big league debut, tossing seven shutout innings against the Padres, on the road no less. While I do expect the Dodgers to inflict some damage tonight, I simply feel that this total has been set too high given the high potential that Anderson and the L.A. bullpen shut down the D'Backs offense. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
09-12-22 | Rangers v. Marlins -118 | 3-2 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Texas at 1:10 pm et on Monday. The Rangers salvaged the finale of their three-game series with the Blue Jays yesterday but I look for their winning ways to be short-lived as they head to Miami to face the Marlins in Game 1 of a day-night double-header on Monday. Glenn Otto will get the start for Texas. After getting a cup of coffee with the big club last season (he pitched just over 20 innings), he's struggled here in 2022, posting a 5.16 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while allowing north of 5.1 runs per nine innings. He looks very much like a pitcher that might be running out of gas down the stretch, having failed to last more than five innings in any of his last three outings. Marlins starter Trevor Rogers has seemingly regained his form since returning from injury. He's given up just four earned runs in 12 innings, striking out 13 and walking only one, in two starts since returning to the rotation in late August. While the Rangers bullpen brings better recent form to the table, it's worth noting that they've converted just 14 saves while blowing 13 on the road this season. Look for Miami to bounce back from yesterday's beatdown at the hands of the Mets. Take Miami (8*). |
|||||||
09-11-22 | Tigers v. Royals -145 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City over Detroit at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Tigers have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Royals to answer back on Sunday. Tyler Alexander takes the ball for Detroit. He checks in sporting a 5.03 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while allowing north of 5.7 runs per nine innings this season. The Royals have never faced him but going up against an opponent for the first time hasn't necessarily led to success for Alexander in the past and I don't believe it will here either. Kansas City will counter with Brady Singer. He hasn't had his best stuff over his last two outings but I look for him to bounce back here, noting that he owns a career 2.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in nine previous starts against Detroit. Singer owns a 3.70 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while holding opponents to just 3.6 runs per nine innings this season. The Royals should own an advantage in the later innings as well as their bullpen has posted a collective 2.13 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games while Detroit's relief corps checks in with a 5.62 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Kansas City (10*). |
|||||||
09-10-22 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 8-4 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We saw last night's series-opener creep 'over' the total in extra innings. The Dodgers haven't posted an 'under' result since back on August 31st while the Padres are now riding a three-game 'over' streak. I look for a reversal of those trends here. Julio Urias will take the ball for Los Angeles. He's been terrific against the Padres this year, facing them twice and giving up just two earned runs on four hits in 11 innings of work. Likewise for Padres starter Blake Snell against the Dodgers. He struck out 12 over five innings in L.A. back on July 1st. He also struck out 10 in 7 2/3 innings at home against the Dodgers last August. Both starters bring excellent recent form into this start with Urias allowing just four earned runs over his last six starts and Snell giving up one earned run over 12 innings in his last two outings. Both bullpens rate among the best in baseball. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
09-09-22 | Red Sox v. Orioles -126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Orioles just dropped three of four games against the Blue Jays to fall 4.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Needless to say, they can ill afford another slip-up this weekend against the Red Sox. Fortunately for Baltimore, Boston is reeling as well, fresh off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Rays. The Red Sox will hand the ball to rookie Brayan Bello on Friday. He's coming off the best start of his young career, tossing six shutout innings against the Rangers. That start came at home. In two road outings, Bello has been tagged for eight earned runs on 12 hits in just eight innings. Austin Voth will counter for Baltimore. He's quietly enjoying a terrific season - the best of his young career - but he didn't have his best stuff last time out, yielding six hits and one earned run while lasting only 3 1/3 innings. While the two bullpens enter in similar recent form, the O's have without question had more success in that department this season, posting a collective 2.80 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while converting 18 saves and blowing only six here at home. Take Baltimore (10*). |
|||||||
09-08-22 | Giants v. Brewers -197 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over San Francisco at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. This is a smash spot for the Brewers after getting their lunch handed to them in the last two games in Colorado. Corbin Burnes is also in a big-time bounce-back spot after three consecutive poor outings. The Giants haven't figured him out yet this year as they've managed to scratch out just one earned run in 14 innings, striking out 21 times along the way. San Francisco's season continues to circle down the drain after another series loss in Los Angeles. The Giants look like they could be 'punting' this one, starting Scott Alexander who will likely play an 'opener' role here. Brewers bounce back. Take Milwaukee (8*). |
|||||||
09-07-22 | Brewers -133 v. Rockies | 4-8 | Loss | -133 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm always looking for spots where pitchers (and hitters) can make the necessary adjustments in particular matchups and this situation sets up nicely for the Brewers on both fronts. Eric Lauer struggled against the Rockies back on July 24th, yielding four earned runs on six hits and lasting only 4 1/3 innings. In two starts against them last year he gave up just three earned runs over 11 innings. Since that late-July outing, Lauer has given up two earned runs or less in five of his last seven trips to the hill. Meanwhile, the Brewers were held scoreless over seven innings against today's opposing starter, Kyle Freeland, back on July 25th. That was in Milwaukee. They'll catch him at Coors Field today, where he owns a 6.10 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this season. Both bullpens are in similar recent form but it's the Brewers relief corps that has been more reliable as a whole this season, entering last night's action with a 3.85 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Take Milwaukee (8*). |
|||||||
09-06-22 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in the series-opener between these two teams last night. The D'Backs did their part scoring five runs but the Padres were held off the scoreboard entirely. Here, I look for San Diego to bounce back offensively as it sees Arizona starter Merrill Kelly for the third time this season. As I noted in yesterday's analysis, both bullpens have struggled lately. The D'Backs relief corps entered this series sporting a collective 6.66 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games. San Diego's 'pen had posted a 7.98 ERA and 2.07 WHIP over the same stretch. While Padres starter Joe Musgrove is thought of as an elite pitcher, the opposition has scored 10, 8, 7, 7, 4, 3, 1, 5 and 4 runs in his last eight trips to the hill. The D'Backs will be seeing Musgrove for the second time this season and the fourth time since the start of last year, plating eight earned runs on 18 hits over 17 innings in their three previous games against him over that stretch. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-05-22 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 7-4 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. This series-opener pits two starting pitchers that we generally like to support. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair at Chavez Ravine on Monday night. Logan Webb will take the ball for the Giants. His recent results have been a mixed bag but we know he can pitch well against the Dodgers as he has posted a 3.25 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 10 career outings against them. On the season, Webb owns a 3.19 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing 3.6 runs per nine innings. Andrew Heaney got off to a tremendous start to his Dodgers career after returning from injury earlier this season but has since struggled. I'm still confident in his ability to right the ship, noting that he has recorded a 3.29 FIP and 1.05 WHIP in 46 2/3 innings pitched this season. The Giants bullpen entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games while the Dodgers relief corps posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
09-05-22 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We'll take a flyer on Astros rookie starter Hunter Brown on Monday but we'll do so by playing the 'under' in this divisional matchup. Brown has logged 100+ innings at the AAA level this season and he's fared exceptionally well, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while allowing a paltry 0.4 home runs per nine innings. He should pitch confidently knowing that the bullpen behind him has been lights out, recording a 1.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over the last seven games, entering yesterday's actoin. Martin Perez will take the ball for Texas. He's struggled in his last two outings against the Astros but does have a stellar start here in Houston to his credit this season, tossing a complete game shutout at Minute Maid Park back on May 20th. Perez owns a 3.32 FIP and 1.23 WHIP this season, yielding just shy of 3.3 runs per nine innings. While the Rangers bullpen has struggled lately, it did turn things around with four shutout innings in yesterday's game in Boston. Entering that contest, the Rangers 'pen had logged a respectable 3.39 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
09-05-22 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
N.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Diego at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Padres just had their lunch handed to them by the Dodgers over the weekend and limp home for a favorable matchup against rookie Ryne Nelson, making his first big league start, and the D'Backs. Nelson hasn't fared well at the AAA level this season, posting a 5.43 ERA and 1.39 WHIP while allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings. Behind him is an unreliable D'Backs bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last seven games. Speaking of bullpens, the Padres relief corps recorded a 7.29 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over the same stretch. That unit will be working behind starter Blake Snell on Monday. Snell has turned his season around but still owns a less than impressive 1.32 WHIP and allows north of 4.0 runs per nine innings. The Snakes haven't fared well against Snell in his five career starts against them but they've yet to face him this season. Note that Arizona checks in averaging 4.8 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, compared to its 4.4 rpg season scoring average (entering yesterday's action). Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-04-22 | A's v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
My selection is on the first five innings ‘over’ between Oakland and Baltimore at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. |
|||||||
09-02-22 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair on Friday night in Cincinnati. Kyle Freeland will take the ball for Colorado. He checks in with a 4.50 FIP and 1.40 WHIP this season, allowing 5.26 runs per nine innings. Note that the Reds will be out for revenge against the left-hander after being held to just one earned run over seven innings against him back in May. Despite the Reds poor showing at the plate in that game, we still saw 11 total runs. Luis Cessa gets the start for Cincinnati. This will be his first home start of the season. I don't expect it to go well, noting that he's been tagged for 1.9 home runs per nine innings and now has to pitch at a hitter-friendly park. Note that Cessa sports a 5.50 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while yielding 5.77 runs per nine innings this season. Neither bullpen has been reliable this season. The Rockies relief corps entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.24 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Reds 'pen owns a 4.89 ERA and 1.40 WHIP at home. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-01-22 | Dodgers -140 v. Mets | 3-5 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. The Mets snapped their brief two-game skid with a victory behind another stellar outing from Jacob deGrom last night. Here, I look for the Dodgers answer back and secure the series win. Clayton Kershaw will make his first start since the first week of August for the Dodgers. Before hitting the shelf, Kershaw had posted a 2.72 FIP and 0.98 WHIP while allowing only 3.06 runs per nine innings this season. Note that he'll be facing a Mets team that averages just 4.2 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, compared to their 4.7 rpg season scoring average. Los Angeles' bullpen has been terrific all season and entered last night's action sporting a collective 2.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games. Chris Bassitt will counter for New York. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I'm generally high on Bassitt. However, his numbers just don't match Kershaw's this season as he checks in with a 3.53 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.5 runs per nine innings this season. Also note that the Dodgers will be seeing him for the second time this year after knocking him around for four runs, three of them earned, over six innings back in June. In fact, in two games against Bassitt going back to last season the Dodgers have plated seven earned runs on 14 hits in 12 innings. There's not a lot negative I can say about the Mets bullpen as a whole this season, but it is worth noting that it entered last night's action with a 1.53 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
08-31-22 | Royals v. White Sox -187 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Royals in the first five innings in the opener of this series last night. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the White Sox on Wednesday as they send veteran Lance Lynn to the mound against Kris Bubic of the Royals. Bubic has been a punching bag for us (and opposing hitters) all season long, recording a 4.80 FIP and 1.68 WHIP while getting tagged for 6.25 runs per nine innings. He actually held up well against the White Sox back on August 10th. I'm confident the White Sox will get their revenge here, noting that Bubic has posted a 9.45 ERA and 2.48 WHIP in three starts since that outing. Lance Lynn has also had a tough time this season but he's marginally better than Bubic and has an excellent track record against the Royals. Note that Lynn owns a 4.24 FIP and 1.19 WHIP while yielding 5.59 runs per nine innings this season. In his last three home starts against the Royals, including an outing earlier this month, he has allowed just three earned runs in 21 1/3 innings of work. The Kansas City bullpen has been a mess, posting a collective 7.40 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over the last seven games. The White Sox 'pen hasn't been anything special, but like Lynn against Bubic, it is marginally better than the Royals relief corps and has converted 19 saves while blowing only nine at home this season. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
08-31-22 | Rockies v. Braves -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. We’ll continue to fade Rockies starter Ryan Feltner, despite the fact that the Rockies have managed to split his last four outings. Feltner checks in with a 4.92 FIP and 1.42 WHIP while allowing 6.16 runs per nine innings on the season. His counterpart on Wednesday will be Kyle Wright, who I consider to be one of the most underrated starters in baseball this year. Wright owns a 3.56 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 3.17 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup goes to the Braves in this one as well as their relief corps has been terrific at home this season while the Rockies ‘pen has been a disaster (as usual) on the road. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
08-31-22 | Cardinals -1.5 v. Reds | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. We’ll back the Cardinals on Wednesday as they hand the ball to Jose Quintana against Mike Minor of the Reds. Quintana has enjoyed a ‘turn back the clock’ type of season, posting a 3.28 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.0 runs per nine innings. It’s been a much different story for Minor as he has labored through the 2022 campaign, recording a 5.89 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while getting tagged for 6.55 runs per nine frames. As far as recent form goes, the bullpen matchup is fairly even. With that being said, the Cards certainly have the superior stable of relief arms and I’m confident they can put this one away. Take St. Louis -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
08-31-22 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers own a considerable starting pitching edge in this matchup. Pirates starter Zach Thompson has been awful this season, logging a 5.33 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while allowing 5.85 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta has battled through injuries and as a result has only pitched 63 1/3 innings for the Brewers, but he’s fared well when he’s been out there, posting a 2.97 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while yielding only 3.69 runs per nine frames. The Pirates actually have the stronger bullpen, in terms of recent form anyway, so there’s no real edge for the Brew Crew in the later innings. We’ll back them in the first five innings only as a result. Take Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-30-22 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | 3-12 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair to open this series last night but I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the visiting Phillies. He's quietly put together a tremendous 2022 campaign having recorded a 2.68 FIP and 0.94 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.1 runs per nine innings. With Zack Wheeler on the shelf, he'll need to step up for the Phillies as the anchor of their starting rotation down the stretch. Note that Nola checks in with a sparkling 2.13 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 12 road outings this season. Zac Gallen will counter for Arizona. He's having a fantastic season in his own right, posting a 3.25 FIP and 0.97 WHIP while yielding just 2.92 runs per nine frames. Gallen did get rocked for four earned runs in just 1 2/3 innings against the Phillies earlier this season but that start came back in early June and it came on the road. Here at home, Gallen has recorded a 2.92 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 12 starts this season. While neither bullpen has been lights out lately, I'm confident in both of tonight's starters' ability to work deep into this ball game and minimize the effect of the relief corps'. I also simply feel we'll see the pendulum swing back in favor of the pitching staffs after last night's offensive showcase. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
08-30-22 | Royals +1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City +0.5 runs first five innings over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. You could certainly make the argument that the Royals are the superior team in this matchup based on recent form. It's not an argument at all as to who the better starting pitcher is in this matchup, at least this season, as Brady Singer has been a pleasant surprise for Kansas City while Lucas Giolito has fallen flat on his face for the White Sox. Singer enters this start sporting a 3.55 FIP and 1.11 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings this season. He just faced the White Sox on August 9th, giving up only one earned run over 7 1/3 innings of work. For his career, he has posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in seven outings against Chicago. We'll back the Royals in the first five innings only here as their bullpen continues to struggle and is quite simply among the worst in the league in most categories. Lucas Giolito owns a 4.09 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while yielding north of 5.4 runs per nine innings for the White Sox this season. While he is coming off one of his best outings of the season, that's not saying much as he gave up one earned run on four hits while striking out only three and walking two in 6 1/3 innings against the Orioles last time out. In two previous starts against Kansas City this season, Giolito has allowed four earned runs in 10 innings. Take Kansas City +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
|||||||
08-30-22 | Rockies v. Braves -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -159 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. With the Braves coming off consecutive losses and favorites getting roasted across the board last night, I can understand the hesitancy to back Atlanta here. I won't shy away, however, as the Braves have a considerable starting pitching edge that should contribute to a comfortable, bounce-back victory. Jose Urena will get the start for the visiting Rockies. To say that his 2022 campaign hasn't gone well would be an understatement. Urena checks in with a 5.65 FIP and 1.67 WHIP while allowing 6.9 runs per nine innings. The Braves actually got two looks at Urena two seasons ago, plating seven earned runs in only 11 innings. Atlanta will turn to its ace, Max Fried, on Tuesday. He's posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, a 2.55 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while giving up only 2.7 runs per nine innings. Note that he faced the Rockies once previously this year and went eight shutout innings, on the road no less. While the Braves bullpen has struggled a bit lately, a return home should help matters, noting that Atlanta's relief corps owns a collective 3.35 ERA and 1.18 WHIP here at Truist Park this season. Meanwhile, the Rockies 'pen checks in with a 5.41 ERA and 1.59 WHIP away from home. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
08-30-22 | Mariners v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this non-division matchup sets up as a low-scoring affair on Tuesday as the Mariners hand the ball to impressive rookie George Kirby against Matt Manning of the Tigers. Kirby checks in sporting a 3.19 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings this season. He deserved a better fate in his most recent outing as he allowed just one earned run while striking out nine over seven innings in an eventual 3-1 loss to the Nationals. Note that Kirby owns a 3.19 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in eight previous road outings this season. Detroit will give Matt Manning another turn in the starting rotation. He's certainly deserving of the spot as he owns a 3.23 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in 38 innings of work this season. Manning has allowed only 2.37 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have been reasonably effective lately with the Mariners relief corps sporting a collective 3.15 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games and the Tigers 'pen posting a 3.51 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
08-29-22 | Padres v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. We'll back the 'under' but in the first five innings only in this N.L. West showdown on Monday night in San Francisco. Mike Clevinger will take the ball for the visiting Padres. He's been bitten by the home run ball at times but for the most part has held up well this season, posting a 4.32 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while yielding 3.7 runs per nine innings. Note that he's faced the Giants twice previously in his career, most recently in 2020 when he tossed seven shutout innings. San Francisco just isn't hitting right now, having plated three runs or fewer in five consecutive games. The Giants will turn to their ace Carlos Rodon for Monday's series-opener. He's quietly been one of the best starters in baseball this season, recording a 2.25 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing only 2.87 runs per nine innings. The Padres have seen the left-hander twice already this season and have yet to figure him out, scoring just three earned runs in 15 innings against him. We'll look to avoid both bullpens in this one as those two units have been overworked lately and neither has been all that reliable in this setting (the Padres on the road and the Giants at home). Take the first five innings under (8*). |
|||||||
08-29-22 | Phillies -174 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -174 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
National League Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Phillies had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 5-0 loss to the Pirates yesterday. Meanwhile, the D'Backs wrapped up a three-game sweep of the White Sox in Chicago. Here, I look for both teams fortunes to turn once again. Philadelphia will hand the ball to left-hander Ranger Suarez. He's actually pitched better on the road than at home this season, posting a 2.41 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 11 starts. He'll be out for revenge here after giving up two earned runs over 4 1/3 innings in a 13-1 rout at the hands of the D'Backs back in June. Note that Suarez owns a 3.68 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while allowing 3.9 runs per nine innings on the campaign. Fellow left-hander Madison Bumgarner will get the start for the D'Backs. He checks in with a 4.65 FIP and 1.43 WHIP while yielding just north of 5.2 runs per nine innings this season. Bumgarner has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last month, allowing a whopping 24 earned runs across his last five starts, spanning just 28 2/3 innings. While the Phillies bullpen hasn't been lights out lately, it has been far better than that of the D'Backs. Arizona's relief corps entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 10.54 ERA and 1.92 WHIP over the last seven games. The D'Backs 'pen has converted just 12 saves while blowing nine at home this season. Meanwhile, the Phillies bullpen has made good on 19 saves while blowing only eight away from home. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
|||||||
08-29-22 | Cardinals -1.5 v. Reds | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. We settled for a push with the Cardinals in the first five innings against Atlanta last night. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well, this time laying the half-run as St. Louis travels to Cincinnati to open a series against the Reds. Miles Mikolas will be looking for revenge after struggling in his most recent start against Cincinnati. On the season, he's been terrific, posting a 3.72 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings. My concern with the Cardinals is their bullpen as it entered last night's action sporting a collective ERA north of six and a WHIP approaching 1.50 over the last seven games. The Reds 'pen had recorded a 3.04 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the same stretch. Cincinnati will give newly-signed Chase Anderson the start on Monday. He's struggled in the minors with Tigers and Rays affiliates, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP while allowing 1.8 home runs per nine innings. Keep in mind, in 48 innings with the Phillies last season, Anderson posted a 5.86 FIP and 1.48 WHIP. He draws a tough matchup in the hot-hitting Cardinals on Monday. Take St. Louis -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Sean Murphy MLB Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-26-23 | Cardinals +100 v. Giants | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
04-26-23 | Padres +100 v. Cubs | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
04-25-23 | Royals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
04-25-23 | Padres v. Cubs -122 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
04-25-23 | Rockies v. Guardians -1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
04-24-23 | Royals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
04-23-23 | Nationals v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
04-22-23 | White Sox v. Rays -179 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
04-22-23 | Dodgers -128 v. Cubs | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
04-21-23 | Mets v. Giants -105 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
04-20-23 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
04-19-23 | Twins -124 v. Red Sox | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
04-19-23 | Guardians -137 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
04-18-23 | Mets v. Dodgers -150 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
04-17-23 | Blue Jays v. Astros UNDER 8 | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
04-16-23 | Guardians v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
04-15-23 | Guardians v. Nationals OVER 9 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
04-14-23 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
04-14-23 | Mets -1.5 v. A's | 17-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
04-14-23 | Orioles -101 v. White Sox | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
04-13-23 | Twins v. Yankees -140 | 11-2 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
04-13-23 | Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
04-12-23 | Mariners -104 v. Cubs | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
04-11-23 | Cardinals -162 v. Rockies | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
04-10-23 | Dodgers -148 v. Giants | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
04-10-23 | A's v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
04-09-23 | Rangers v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
04-09-23 | Red Sox v. Tigers +106 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
04-08-23 | Blue Jays v. Angels -109 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
04-08-23 | Yankees -120 v. Orioles | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
04-08-23 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 0-11 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
04-07-23 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 11 | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
04-07-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
04-07-23 | Astros v. Twins -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
04-06-23 | Dodgers -144 v. Diamondbacks | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
04-06-23 | Padres v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
04-06-23 | Giants +122 v. White Sox | 16-6 | Win | 122 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
04-05-23 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
04-04-23 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
04-03-23 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
04-02-23 | Tigers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
03-31-23 | Mets v. Marlins +105 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
11-05-22 | Phillies +135 v. Astros | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
11-02-22 | Astros v. Phillies +102 | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
11-01-22 | Astros v. Phillies +114 | 0-7 | Win | 114 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
10-15-22 | Braves -118 v. Phillies | 3-8 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
10-14-22 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
10-12-22 | Phillies v. Braves -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
10-11-22 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 6.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
10-08-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -150 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
10-07-22 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -125 | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
10-05-22 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
10-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 7 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
09-30-22 | Royals +121 v. Guardians | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
09-28-22 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
09-27-22 | Royals v. Tigers -103 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
09-26-22 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
09-24-22 | Mariners -1.5 v. Royals | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
09-23-22 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
09-22-22 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
09-21-22 | Giants v. Rockies +124 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
09-21-22 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
09-20-22 | Astros v. Rays OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
09-19-22 | Mariners -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 9-1 | Win | 120 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
09-17-22 | White Sox -1.5 v. Tigers | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
09-16-22 | Phillies v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 115 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
09-16-22 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
09-15-22 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
09-14-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +120 | 3-5 | Win | 120 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
09-14-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals +112 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 112 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
09-14-22 | Cubs v. Mets -1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
09-13-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-1 | Win | 102 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
09-13-22 | Rockies v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
09-12-22 | Braves -170 v. Giants | 2-3 | Loss | -170 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
09-12-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
09-12-22 | Rangers v. Marlins -118 | 3-2 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
09-11-22 | Tigers v. Royals -145 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
09-10-22 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 8-4 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
09-09-22 | Red Sox v. Orioles -126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
09-08-22 | Giants v. Brewers -197 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
09-07-22 | Brewers -133 v. Rockies | 4-8 | Loss | -133 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
09-06-22 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
09-05-22 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 7-4 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
09-05-22 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
09-05-22 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
09-04-22 | A's v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
09-02-22 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
09-01-22 | Dodgers -140 v. Mets | 3-5 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
08-31-22 | Royals v. White Sox -187 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
08-31-22 | Rockies v. Braves -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
08-31-22 | Cardinals -1.5 v. Reds | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
08-31-22 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
08-30-22 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | 3-12 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
08-30-22 | Royals +1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
08-30-22 | Rockies v. Braves -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -159 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
08-30-22 | Mariners v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
08-29-22 | Padres v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
08-29-22 | Phillies -174 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -174 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
08-29-22 | Cardinals -1.5 v. Reds | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |