Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-28-24 | Diamondbacks v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has cashed in five straight games involving the Mariners while the Diamondbacks are on a three-game 'under' streak of their own. I look for those streaks to continue for at least one more day. Brandon Pfaadt gets the start for Arizona. He owns a 3.92 FIP and 1.17 WHIP this season. The Mariners rank 27th in baseball in home OPS. Logan Gilbert will counter for Seattle. He's off to a fine start to the season with a 3.34 FIP and 0.80 WHIP. The D'Backs are middle of the pack in terms of road OPS but it's worth noting that Gilbert has held current Arizona hitters to 8-for-36 at the plate with just one extra-base hit (a Randal Grichuk home run). Take the under (8*). |
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04-27-24 | Yankees v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 15-3 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a well-pitched game between the Yankees and Brewers on Saturday, unlike what we saw in the opener of this series last night. Carlos Rodon will get the start for the visiting Yankees. He had a positive Spring and has taken another step in the right direction in five regular season starts, posting a 4.14 FIP (after logging a 5.79 FIP last season). Rodon will be facing a Brewers club that ranks 27th in the majors in OPS vs. left-handed pitching. Journeyman right-hander Joe Ross will counter for Milwaukee. He has proven serviceable at the back of the Brewers starting rotation this season, recording a 3.32 FIP. It's not as if the Yankees are tearing the cover off the baseball, ranking 14th in the majors in OPS and 20th over the last seven days. Both bullpens entered last night's action sporting collective ERA's south of three. Take the under (8*). |
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04-26-24 | Guardians v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The Braves are coming off a string of low-scoring games but I look for a different story to unfold as we see a battle of southpaw starting pitchers in Logan Allen and Chris Sale. The Guardians aren't known for their offense but they've been on a tear against left-handed pitching this season, ranking third in the majors with an .826 OPS. The Braves are just two spots behind them with a .793 OPS against lefties. Of course, it hasn't really mattered who Atlanta has faced at home - the Braves rank second in baseball with an .804 home OPS. Logan Allen continues to labor through his second big league season with a 5.50 FIP and 1.39 WHIP in five starts. Chris Sale has fared much better for the Braves, sporting a 3.39 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. With his durability always in question, I do think some regression is in order for the veteran left-hander. Take the over (10*). |
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04-26-24 | Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and New York at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Neither of these offenses have impressed me all that much in the early going this season and I think the starting pitching matchup serves our purposes well on Friday night in Queens. Miles Mikolas had a terrific Spring for the Cardinals but that hasn't carried over to the regular season as he checks in sporting a FIP north of five. This might be just the matchup to get him back on track, however. Note that current Mets hitters have gone 32-for-137 off of him with just 12 extra base hits. Only D.J. Stewart and Tyrone Taylor have managed to take Mikolas deep. Of note, Pete Alonso is just 2-for-12 off of Mikolas with a pair of singles. Mets starter Jose Butto has been terrific through three starts this season, sporting a 2.59 FIP and 1.04 WHIP. No current Cardinals hitter has seen Butto before. Both bullpens have been serviceable in the early going, particularly when holding leads (15 converted saves and only five blown combined). Take the under (8*). |
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04-25-24 | Phillies v. Reds UNDER 8 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring contest between these two teams last night as the Reds took a second straight win in the series by a score of 7-4. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair in Thursday's series finale. Zack Wheeler will take the ball for Philadelphia. He went six innings allowing just one earned run while striking out 10 against the Reds back on April 3rd. Wheeler checks in sporting a 2.42 FIP and 0.89 WHIP this season. Nick Martinez has had a run of tough luck for the Reds in his first two starts this season. While his ERA approaches five his FIP sits at a respectable 2.98. Behind Martinez is a Reds bullpen that has been quietly impressive this season, particularly at home where it entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.15 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Take the under (8*). |
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04-25-24 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 7 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. I think 'under' bettors may have been lulled into a false sense of security after three straight low-scoring games to open this series. While this starting pitching matchup looks to be a good one on paper, the fact is both lineups have enjoyed considerable success against their opponent. Current Pirates hitters are 21-for-70 off of Freddy Peralta with Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen and Ke'Bryan Hayes all taking him deep. Meanwhile, current Brewers hitters are 17-for-44 off of Mitch Keller with four different players taking him out of the park. Neither team has had a day off in the last week and given the close nature of recent games you have to figure both bullpens are somewhat depleted. I'll take my chances with the 'over' at such a low posted total. Take the over (8*). |
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04-24-24 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two teams last night as the Mariners cruised to a 4-0 victory behind another strong pitching performance from Logan Gilbert. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday as Seattle sends Bryce Miller to the hill against veteran Jon Gray of Texas. Miller hasn't fared well in limited work against the Rangers, allowing their current hitters to collect 10 hits in 25 at-bats with five of those knocks going for extra bases and three for home runs. Not only that but Miller has recorded only a 3:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against them. The Mariners bullpen has been terrific but Miller is generally good for five or six innings and I expect the Rangers to get their opportunities against him. Jon Gray has held up reasonably well in the early going this season but I do think regression is on the way. Note that current Mariners hitters are just 14-for-88 against him but Mitch Haniger is 2-for-6 with a pair of home runs and Ty France and Julio Rodriguez have both gone deep against him as well. In fact, of the 10 Mariners hitters that have faced him all but two have collected at least a hit. Note that Gray has worked five innings or less in seven of his last nine starts so there's a good chance we'll see plenty of the Rangers bullpen. Texas relievers entered this series sporting a collective 4.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-24-24 | Astros v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up as a back-and-forth high-scoring game as the Astros send rookie Spencer Arrighetti to the mound against Jameson Taillon of the Cubs. Arrighetti is in the Houston starting rotation out of necessity only with Cristian Javier joining Framber Valdez on the shelf. The rookie has made two starts and labored through both, recording a 3.44 FIP (that number has only been held in check by the fact that he's yet to allow a home run) and 2.29 WHIP. Behind Arrighetti is an Astros bullpen that has been among the worst in baseball this season. Entering last night's action, Houston relievers had recorded a collective 5.36 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with only two saves converted and six blown. The Cubs entered this series averaging 6.2 runs per game at home this season and scored seven runs in last night's victory. Taillon faces the tall task of silencing the Astros bats. I say it's a tall task because he has struggled mightily against current Houston hitters, allowing them to go 27-for-78 with 12 extra-base hits. Not only that but he has recorded just eight strikeouts while walking six against current Astros hitters. The Cubs bullpen has posted solid overall numbers but can be had in the later innings, as evidenced by the fact that it has converted five saves while also blowing five. Take the over (8*). |
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04-23-24 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams last night and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Luis Severino entered the season with rather low expectations as he made the move from the Bronx to Queens to join the Mets. However, the veteran right-hander had a terrific Spring and has picked up where he left off in the regular season, recording a serviceable 3.70 FIP and 1.38 WHIP. The Giants don't have a lot to go on against Severino as their current hitters are a combined 2-for-28 against him with a pair of singles. Behind Severino is a Mets bullpen that entered this series among the best in baseball, sporting a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Giants ace Logan Webb has been terrific in the early going this season, posting a 2.85 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings of work. Webb is capable of giving the Giants seven-plus quality innings on any given night and he draws a favorable matchup here as current Mets hitters are 13-for-73 against him with only four extra-base hits. Pete Alonso has homered off of Webb but is just 1-for-11 against him. The Giants bullpen hasn't been great this season but again that's not as much of a concern with Webb starting as they may only be asked to piece together an inning or two. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-24 | Blue Jays v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 109 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Kansas City at 7:40 pm et on Monday. This one sets up as a well-pitched affair between the Blue Jays and Royals at Kauffman Stadium on Monday. Yusei Kikuchi had an awful Spring for the Blue Jays but has had no such trouble in his first four regular season starts, recording a 2.24 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings of work. Current Royals hitters have combined to go 7-for-35 against him with just three extra-base hits. Bobby Witt Jr. is 0-for-4 against Kikuchi with a pair of strikeouts and one walk. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. Like Kikuchi, he struggled in the Spring but has pitched reasonably well in his first four regular season outings, logging a 4.06 FIP and 0.86 WHIP. Current Blue Jays hitters have gone a miserable 8-for-41 against Singer including just on extra-base hit (a home run by Daulton Varsho). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 0-for-7 in his career against Singer. Neither bullpen has been lights out this season but I do think both starters are capable of working relatively deep into this ball game. Of note, the two bullpens entered yesterday's action having combined to record 12 saves while blowing only three. Take the under (10*). |
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04-21-24 | Red Sox v. Pirates -140 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -140 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Red Sox have proven to be road warriors in the early going this season but I look for them to get tripped up in the finale of their series in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Josh Winckowski will get the start for Boston. He has logged 11 2/3 innings in relief this season, posting an ugly 2.06 WHIP. Keep in mind, for his career he has recorded a 1.54 WHIP so it's not like there's a lot of positive regression to be expected. Veteran left-hander Martin Perez had a terrific Spring for the Pirates and has picked up right where he left off in the regular season, posting a 3.43 FIP and 1.26 WHIP in four starts. He did labor through his most recent outing against the red hot Mets but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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04-20-24 | Rangers +140 v. Braves | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Saturday. I like the Rangers to bounce back on Saturday after they were crushed by the Braves in the opener of this series last night. Nathan Eovaldi is in line for a bounce back performance of his own after he allowed two home runs and five earned runs in an 8-5 loss against the Astros last time out. Through his first three starts this season Eovaldi had given up just three earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. Charlie Morton will counter for Atlanta. He can certainly be had right now as he has been tagged for 10 earned runs over his last two starts spanning just 11 2/3 innings. The bullpens are closer to a wash than you might think. The Braves 'pen entered this series sporting an ERA well north of five and a 1.50 WHIP at home this season. Take Texas (8*). |
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04-20-24 | A's v. Guardians -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 125 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland -1.5 runs over Oakland at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade Alex Wood and the A's on Saturday as they challenge Logan Allen and the Guardians in Game 2 of their series in Cleveland. Wood's best days are obviously behind him. He's made four starts this season, logging a 5.54 FIP and 2.10 WHIP. Logan Allen hasn't exactly been at his best for the Guardians but the potential is there and I look for him to bounce back from consecutive rough outings here at home. Note that he has posted a 1.36 WHIP through 21 1/3 innings of work this season. The A's are off to a fine start this season - certainly better than most expected - but I'm going to be looking to fade them in the coming weeks. Take Cleveland -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-20-24 | Mets v. Dodgers -1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over New York at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I like the Dodgers to rebound from last night's loss to the Mets and two losses in a row overall. Jose Butto has been impressive for the Mets so far this season but I do think he's in for some considerable regression moving forward. The hits simply haven't been falling in against him as he has held the opposition to 3.8 hits per nine innings. Keep in mind, for his limited big league career, Butto has allowed 7.3 hits per nine frames. Dodgers starter Gavin Stone has also got off to a solid start this season with a 2.18 FIP and 1.57 WHIP despite allowing 11.0 hits per nine innings. The Mets bullpen didn't have to do a lot of heavy lifting in last night's game but I think we'll see a different story on Saturday as the Dodgers offense figures to erupt off a couple of subpar performances. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-19-24 | Rays +140 v. Yankees | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I think some bettors may have Rays 'opener' Tyler Alexander confused with Angels journeyman Tyler Anderson as this price seems a little out of whack. Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt has had an up and down start to the campaign having posted a solid 3.54 FIP but a lofty 1.64 WHIP through three outings. Keep in mind, you would have to go back eight Schmidt starts to find the last time he made it through six innings. The Rays have long held their own against the Yankees, going 16-16 (+0.7 net games) in this series over the last three seasons. We'll back them at a considerable underdog price on Friday. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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04-19-24 | White Sox +148 v. Phillies | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Rockies let the Phillies off the hook two nights ago and Philadelphia came away with a series sweep. I look for the White Sox to bring an end to the Phillies winning streak on Friday, however, as they send impressive rookie Garrett Crochet to the hill against Tigers castaway Spencer Turnbull. The White Sox are off to a tough start to the season, as was expected. Few will be expecting much out of them in this series against the red hot Phillies but that's precisely why I see them as offering value. Crochet is undoubtedly the better starting pitcher in this matchup and I still feel the Philadelphia bullpen can be had - as we saw against Colorado when it nearly blew a 7-1 lead two nights ago. Take Chicago (8*). |
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04-18-24 | Diamondbacks +150 v. Giants | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Arizona over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Thursday. Going back to the start of last season, the Giants are 17-20 in Logan Webb's 37 starts. Yes, he's a quality pitcher but San Francisco doesn't always provide the support needed to secure victories in spite of his terrific pitching. That wasn't the story in his most recent outing as the Giants produced 11 runs in a rout of the Rays last Saturday. I expect a much different story to unfold on Thursday in San Francisco. Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson is coming off a masterful six-inning outing against the Cardinals in which he allowed just one earned run. Note that the D'Backs have come away victorious in each of his three career starts against the Giants including a pair of wins in San Francisco. While the bullpen matchup is virtually a wash over the last week, D'Backs relievers have posted better overall numbers this season. Take Arizona (10*). |
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04-18-24 | Rangers v. Tigers +100 | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Texas at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. This series has been about as back-and-forth and tightly-contested as it gets and we'll count on the Tigers to bounce back and earn a 2-2 split on Thursday afternoon in Detroit. Kenta Maeda will get the start for Detroit. His overall numbers through three starts this season are not good but he is trending in the right direction. Last time out Maeda held the Twins to just one earned run over six innings. In four career starts against Texas he has posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Jack Leiter will get his first career big league start for the Rangers. While he could be effective in this game, it's unlikely we'll see him work deep into the contest. That leaves plenty of work for a Rangers bullpen that has struggled for the most part this season, logging a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.38 WHIP entering yesterday's game. In stark contrast, the Tigers 'pen entered yesterday's action with a 1.70 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Take Detroit (8*). |
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04-17-24 | Rockies +195 v. Phillies | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockies are certainly looking ahead to a return home at the conclusion of this series but I do look for them to avoid the sweep and pick up a rare road victory on Wednesday night in Philadelphia. Ryan Feltner was on the hill for the Rockies most recent win - last Friday in Toronto. He's as serviceable as it gets when it comes to the Colorado starting rotation. This play is more about fading Phillies starter Christopher Sanchez, who I don't feel belongs in this price range. I don't anticipate either starter working deep into this ball game but will take my chances fading the Phillies subpar bullpen which entered last night's action sporting a collective 6.31 ERA and 1.57 WHIP at home this season. Take Colorado (8*). |
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04-17-24 | Cardinals v. A's +145 | 3-6 | Win | 145 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over St. Louis at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. Steven Matz was spotted a 4-0 lead in the first inning in his most recent start against Arizona. The Cardinals would go on to blow a 6-0 lead in that game before rallying for a 9-6 victory. All of that to say, Matz has been anything but dominant through his first three starts this season, striking out only eight while allowing 17 hits in 15 innings of work. It's been a different story for A's starter Paul Blackburn. He has yet to give up an earned run in 19 1/3 innings this season. Meanwhile, the A's bullpen has been terrific in the early going. We'll back the A's as they look to avoid the series sweep on Wednesday. Take Oakland (8*). |
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04-17-24 | Nationals +226 v. Dodgers | 2-0 | Win | 226 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Los Angeles at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Nationals were never going to have much of a shot at beating the Dodgers for a second straight game on Tuesday as they handed the ball to inning-eating batting practice pitcher Patrick Corbin. The Dodgers rolled in that contest. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however, as Washington sends Jake Irvin to the hill against Dodgers rookie Landon Knack. Irvin has been serviceable in the early going this season, logging a 4.01 FIP and 1.06 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Nats bullpen has held up well, recording a collective 3.26 ERA with six saves converted and three blown in the early going this season. With a win on Wednesday, Washington would wrap up a confidence-building 5-4 road trip. The Dodgers on the other hand are just 2-4 over their last six games, still setting into the long 162-game season. Take Washington (8*). |
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04-17-24 | Yankees -1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-4 | Win | 155 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Week. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday. Kevin Gausman has been awful in his last two starts. In fact, he's been pretty bad going all the way back to last August save for a few starts. When things have gone south for the veteran right-hander it's been in spectacular fashion. Note that in Gausman's last seven team losses, the opposition has plated a whopping 51 runs. After dropping the first two games of this series, I look for the Yankees to rebound on Wednesday afternoon. Marcus Stroman will get the nod for New York. He's coming off a rocky outing of his own but still owns a respectable 3.42 FIP and 1.06 WHIP on the campaign. He'll of course be up for this matchup against his former team. The Jays bullpen has held up well in this series so far but I think it's only a matter of time before it gets blown up. We'll bet that today is the day. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-17-24 | Twins -1.5 v. Orioles | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 runs over Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Orioles have elected to give Bruce Zimmermann the start on Wednesday as they look to wrap up a series sweep of the Twins. This is a starting pitching mismatch as Minnesota will hand the ball to its ace Pablo Lopez. We'll lay the extra run in this spot as the Twins are well-positioned to avoid the sweep in convincing fashion, noting their bullpen continues to pitch well having recorded a collective 2.37 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season. Take Minnesota -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-16-24 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 11-12 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona -1.5 runs over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs have now won three games in a row but I expect them to fall flat on Tuesday as they send Kyle Hendricks to the mound against Tommy Henry. This likely amounts to a bullpen game and in that case I'll favor the Diamondbacks based on the situation alone. Note that Chicago has been involved in four straight tightly-contested games in as many days, using many of its key bullpen arms. There's a good chance this one gets way from the Cubs, especially with Hendricks struggling (he's been one of the worst starters in baseball so far this season) in the early going. While I'm not overly high on Tommy Henry, I do think the attractive plus-money return laying the extra run with the D'Backs is too much to pass up, noting that seven of their eight wins this year have come by at least two runs including all six victories at home. Take Arizona -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-16-24 | Braves -1.5 v. Astros | 6-2 | Win | 140 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Braves were high on Reynaldo Lopez when they brought him over from the White Sox and perhaps for good reason. He's proven to be a useful cog in their injury-depleted starting rotation and I look for him to step up and give them another quality outing on Tuesday. It's a much different story for Astros starter Hunter Brown. He has all the tools to succeed but hasn't been able to put it together in his first season-plus at the big league level. He's been rocked over his last two outings and now faces the daunting task of trying to keep the Braves loaded lineup at bay. Behind Brown is an Astros bullpen that has been among the worst in baseball so far this season. It was only a matter of time before the Braves pulled away last night and I expect a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-16-24 | Pirates +120 v. Mets | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Off last night's big rally, we'll fade the Mets on Tuesday as they send veteran Jose Quintana to the mound against Pirates rookie Jared Jones. The starting pitching matchup doesn't matter all that much to me in this spot but I will note that Jones has shown the ability to work relatively deep into ball games, lasting at least 5 2/3 innings in all three of his starts this season. Quintana on the other hand has topped out at 5 2/3 innings in his first three outings this year. The Pirates bullpen figures to be in better shape here as the Mets come off consecutive tightly-contested affairs (and have nearly doubled the Pirates bullpen innings pitched over the last week). Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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04-16-24 | Rockies +210 v. Phillies | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I don't think the Phillies have any business being priced in this range with Ranger Suarez starting on Tuesday. The Rockies were right there with the Phils last night despite a no-show from their offense, ultimately dropping a 2-1 decision in extra innings. They'll hand the ball to Austin Gomber on Tuesday and while he's a prototypical back-of-the-rotation starter, the fact is he's been on the hill for two victories in his first three starts, once again illustrating that starting pitching matchups aren't the end-all and be-all when it comes to baseball handicapping. The price is right to take a flyer on the Rockies as they look to snap a three-game skid. Take Colorado (8*). |
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04-15-24 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -136 | 3-2 | Loss | -136 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Diamondbacks come into this series feeling pretty good about themselves after posting four wins in their last five games. We'll back them here and fade the Cubs who are coming off a series win in Seattle including a 3-2 victory yesterday. Rookie Ben Brown will get his second start for the Cubs. He impressed in his first, allowing just three hits over 4 2/3 shutout innings against the Padres. Control has been an issue for Brown in the minors and I suspect the D'Backs will stay patient against him on Monday, ultimately leading to a relatively short outing. Merrill Kelly has been the picture of consistency for Arizona. He rarely gets blown up and when he does it usually happens on the road, not at home. Going back to last season, Kelly has lasted at least six innings in each of his last four starts. Take Arizona (8*). |
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04-15-24 | Rangers v. Tigers +110 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Texas at 6:40 pm et on Monday. I think the Rangers chasers will be out in full effect for this game as a short favorite after they dropped the final two contests of their weekend series in Houston. Instead we'll back the Tigers as they look to keep their terrific start going and own a starting pitching edge with Reese Olson going up against call-up Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen is only making this start because of an injury to Cody Bradford. You may remember Lorenzen from his no-hitter last season but he faded after that and doesn't have the skills to succeed as a starter at the big league level. Olson showed positive flashes last season even if his overall numbers didn't impress. He was solid in his 2024 debut before getting roughed up by the Pirates in his most recent start. Both of his previous outings came on the road. I look for him to benefit from making his third start here at hitter-friendly Comerica Park. Take Detroit (8*). |
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04-15-24 | Rockies v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Phillies saw their 10-game 'under' streak grind to a halt against the Pirates yesterday. I expect to see a bit of a correction moving forward, continuing with Monday's date with the Rockies. Colorado starter Cal Quantrill couldn't make a go of it in Cleveland and won't find life any easier with one of the worst teams in baseball. Quantrill figures to get hit hard by a Phillies team that is looking to bounce back from Sunday's loss. Aaron Nola is often priced as an elite pitcher for the Phillies but I don't necessarily think he falls into that category. Nola owns a 6.75 FIP and 1.50 WHIP through three starts spanning 16 innings this season and while those numbers are sure to come down, how much remains to be seen. Take the over (8*). |
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04-15-24 | Giants -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday. Marlins starter A.J. Puk has proven he's not ready for a rotation spot, issuing 14 walks while giving up 12 hits in barely 10 innings of work this season. The Giants should be in a foul mood after failing to secure a series win in St. Petersburg yesterday. Kyle Harrison looks like he has the stuff to succeed at the big league level and I'm confident he'll put San Francisco in good position to win by margin on Monday in Miami. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-15-24 | Guardians v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Boston at 11:10 am et on Monday. Few are probably expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks in this early morning start on Marathon Day in Boston. I'll go the other way and call for a relatively high-scoring affair as the two teams are well-positioned to score early and often. Xzavion Curry gets his first start of the season for the Guardians after getting an audition for a starting job late last year. In just over 100 big league innings, Curry owns a 4.64 FIP and 1.41 WHIP. We know what we're going to get from the right-hander, who I should mention is unlikely to work deep into this ball game. It's a similar story with Kutter Crawford of the Red Sox. He has punched above his weight class in his first three starts this season but I expect regression moving forward. Like Curry, he's not a candidate to work deep into ball games. The Guardians have the type of lineup that puts a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers and can certainly move the line. I think these two teams go back-and-forth all day long. Take the over (8*). |
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04-14-24 | Nationals v. A's OVER 8.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We haven't seen much offense so far in this series and I suppose that's to be expected with these two lineups. I do think we'll see a different story unfold on Sunday, however, as the Nationals send Trevor Williams to the hill against Alex Wood of the A's. Both starters are coming off fine outings last time out. I question whether either can string together a second straight positive outing though. Williams recorded a 5.98 FIP and 1.60 WHIP for the Nats last year. Pitchers of his age and quality don't tend to turn things around at this stage of their career. Wood is a journeyman left-hander that has posted a 4.55 FIP and 1.95 WHIP through three starts this season. The Nats can get to him here. Take the over (8*). |
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04-13-24 | Cubs -1.5 v. Mariners | 4-1 | Win | 125 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. I think there's a certain feeling of confidence the Cubs have when Japanese import Shota Imanaga takes the hill, even if he is only two outings into his big league career. The Cubs have won his two previous starts by scores of 5-0 and 8-1 and I like their chances of posting another lopsided victory on Saturday in Seattle. The Mariners did take the opener of this series last night as the Cubs bats were silent against Bryce Miller and the Seattle bullpen. This is a fine bounce-back spot as they draw Mariners sophomore starter Emerson Hancock. He has yet to really fine-tune his stuff, as evidenced by a 7.52 FIP and 1.96 WHIP through two outings this season. He's now faced 93 batters at the major league level going back to last season and they've recorded a lofty .325 batting average against him. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-13-24 | Giants v. Rays -105 | 11-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over San Francisco at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rays are rolling right now, winners of three games in a row. I look for them to keep it going as they send promising right-hander Ryan Pepiot to the mound against veteran Logan Webb of the Giants. Pepiot got roughed up by the Rangers in his Rays debut but bounced back nicely to toss six shutout innings of three-hit, no-walk ball while striking out 11 at hitter-friendly Coors Field last time out. Coming over from the Dodgers, the Rays do feel like they have a good one in Pepiot and I tend to agree. He showed plenty of promise before injuries took their toll last season. Logan Webb has battled through some control issues in the early going this season but has still posted a FIP around three. He's always good for eating innings and is consistently effective but I'm not convinced the Giants can give him enough run support nor do I have much faith in San Francisco's sagging bullpen. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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04-13-24 | Rockies v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Rockies bats exploded in the series opener between these two teams last night. I expect the Blue Jays to return the favor against Colorado starter Dakota Hudson on Saturday but question whether Toronto's pitching staff can stem the tide with Yariel Rodriguez getting the call to make his big league debut. Rodriguez is a bit of a Wild Card having mostly excelled as a reliever in Japan. The Blue Jays are certainly believers in him after handing him a $32 million contract but it remains to be seen how he'll perform at the big league level. For now, I'm not anticipating him to work deep into this ball game, nor do I expect him to completely shut down the Rockies bats. Toronto's bullpen hasn't been good and there's no help coming at the moment. Given how I expect the Jays bats to perform in this game I don't think we'll need much from the Rockies to get this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-12-24 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -116 | 9-6 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over St. Louis at 9:40 pm et on Friday. Brandon Pfaadt enjoyed a nice turnaround for the Diamondbacks last season and while his ERA through two starts this year leaves a lot to be desired that doesn't tell the whole story. Pfaadt actually checks in sporting a 2.85 FIP giving him something to build on as he faces the Cardinals on Friday. We'll fade Cards starter Steven Matz as he comes off a solid five-inning outing against the Marlins. His 1.74 ERA and 1.16 WHIP won't hold. I look for the D'Backs to get to him on Friday. Take Arizona (8*). |
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04-12-24 | Cubs +105 v. Mariners | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I'm fairly high on Cubs starter Jordan Wicks in the early going this season. We managed to cash the 'under' in his most recent start against the Dodgers. He didn't necessarily have his best stuff on that afternoon but still hung in there and ultimately helped our cause. I like the matchup here against a Mariners offense that just hasn't been there with any consistency in the early stages of the season. Bryce Miller has a bright future for Seattle, or at least that's the general consensus. I do think he's a considerable step behind the likes of George Kirby and Logan Gilbert in the M's starting rotation, however. In fact, I'm not sure Miller will every reach those heights. He's alternated good and bad starts so far this year and I think he's in for a rough one on Friday. Take Chicago (10*). |
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04-12-24 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We'll pick on the two starters in this divisional matchup as neither arm has the track record to shine in this particular spot. Dane Dunning can succeed at times for the Rangers but it's more a matter of holding the opposing bats at bay just enough for his team's offense to take care of the rest. Dunning isn't shutting many opponents down. It's a similar story for J.P. France. He has actually recorded a terrific 2.43 FIP through two outings this season but regression figures to be on his way, noting he has posted a lofty 1.50 WHIP. Off a 1-0 loss to the A's yesterday the Rangers bats figure to wake up and it's worth mentioning that they just faced France last week, plating three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. The damage could have been even worse as France yielded eight hits and two walks while striking out only four. Dunning fared slightly better against the Astros and has solid career numbers against them. Note the he's faced them just once in Houston and lasted only four innings after giving up four earned runs on seven hits. Take the over (10*). |
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04-11-24 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | 9-4 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The bats came to life at Fenway Park last night with the Orioles rallying for a 7-5 victory. I look for a lower-scoring affair as the series wraps up on Thursday evening. This game features two promising starting pitchers in Grayson Rodriguez and Garrett Whitlock. There's not a lot bad you can say about either one of them in the early going this season other than Rodriguez having had a penchant for allowing home runs. He does minimize the damage by not putting a lot of runners on base. Whitlock, meanwhile, has recorded a 2.25 FIP and 1.18 WHIP in his first two outings this season. The Boston bullpen imploded last night but had been solid previously. The O's 'pen is as advertised. Take the under (8*). |
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04-11-24 | Orioles v. Red Sox +112 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston over Baltimore at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Orioles have taken the first two games in this series including last night's contest in comeback fashion. We have a terrific starting pitching matchup on tap for Thursday's series finale but I'll give the Red Sox the edge with Garrett Whitlock taking the ball. Whitlock showed promise before being moved to the bullpen last year. So far this season he has logged a 2.25 FIP and 1.18 WHIP and that comes on the heels of an outstanding Spring. Grayson Rodriguez has the potential to be an ace for the Orioles but we saw him go through a stretch where he couldn't keep the ball in the park last May and we're seeing signs of that again in the early going this season (three home runs allowed in two starts). Fenway Park isn't a great place to figure out such issues. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-10-24 | A's v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 112 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Oakland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have inexplicably reeled off three straight wins but I look for that streak to end on Wednesday. Ross Stripling will get the start for Oakland. He caught lightning in a bottle in his most recent outing, getting involved in a pitching duel with Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox in an eventual 1-0 loss. Those type of impressive outings are likely to be few and far between for the journeyman starter this season, however. After his line drive percentage rocketed last season it has held through two starts this year as well. I look for the Rangers bats to feast. Cody Bradford doesn't get much attention near the back of the Rangers starting rotation but he has the potential to be a quality arm for the defending champs again this year. Bradford won't overwhelm hitters with his pitch velocity but he makes the most of his pitch arsenal and has recorded a 2.91 FIP and 0.47 WHIP through two outings this season. The A's have been winning but have a small margin for error averaging only 3.0 runs per game on the season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-10-24 | Nationals v. Giants -1.5 | 1-7 | Win | 107 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Washington at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Giants are reeling right now having dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to bounce back on Wednesday. Patrick Corbin will get the start for Washington. The beauty of fading Corbin is that as poorly as he's likely to pitch, the Nationals aren't going to lift him from the game early. He's quite simply an innings eater at this stage of his career with a FIP approaching six and a WHIP nearing two already this season. Jordan Hicks continues to get run out as a starter for the Giants and so far, so good. Hicks had a terrific spring and has recorded a sub-2.00 FIP and 0.75 WHIP in 12 regular season innings. We'll lay the extra run in this spot. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-10-24 | Dodgers v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bobby Miller and Chris Paddack are two starting pitchers that I'm willing to support in the early going this season. Miller is coming off a shaky outing against the Cubs at Wrigley Field but still sports a 2.45 FIP and 1.17 WHIP through his first two starts this season. He's got the potential to eventually be a top of the rotation arm for the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Chris Paddack continues to work his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. The Twins are believers in him and I am as well, noting that the right-hander has showed flashes for Minnesota after shining at the minor league level in brief action in each of the last two seasons. Paddack won't be asked to do too much in this matinee affair but can fend the Dodgers off long enough to help this one stay 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). |
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04-09-24 | Astros v. Royals +114 | 3-4 | Win | 114 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Houston at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Astros rallied to win the final two games of their four-game series in Texas but now find themselves at a disadvantage travelling to face a rested and rolling Royals club on Tuesday in Kansas City. I like the way the starting pitching matchup sets up for Kansas City in the series opener as it sends Cole Ragans to the hill against Cristian Javier. These two pitchers are on different career trajectories right now with Javier heading in the wrong direction and Ragans quickly ascending to elite status. Javier did pitch well in his most recent outing but that only serves to artificially inflate his price here. Ragans recorded a 2.49 FIP in 70+ innings after joining the Royals last season and has picked up right where he left off in 2024, posting a 2.91 FIP and 0.89 WHIP in two starts. Take Kansas City (8*). |
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04-09-24 | Marlins +169 v. Yankees | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins were shut out on Monday failing to build off Sunday's first victory of the season. I do think that lopsided result gives Yankees bettors a false sense of security with Carlos Rodon taking the ball for the third time this season on Tuesday. His 2.79 ERA so far this season doesn't tell the whole story as he has recorded a lofty 5.98 FIP in 9 2/3 innings of work. Likewise, Marlins starter A.J. Puk had a fine Spring but has been lit up in his first two regular season outings. I look for him to bounce back here and we'll note that he's not the one being priced as a big favorite. For his big league career, Puk has posted a solid 3.67 FIP. I think better days are ahead for the left-hander. Take Miami (8*). |
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04-09-24 | Orioles -136 v. Red Sox | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Boston at 2:10 pm et on Tuesday. We're being offered a decent price to back the Orioles on Tuesday as they look to cool off the red hot Red Sox. Corbin Burnes has been terrific in two starts with his new team, logging a 1.95 FIP and 0.86 WHIP. Red Sox starter Brayan Bello certainly isn't as bad as he's shown in the early going this season but a FIP north of six can't be ignored, especially as he prepares to face a loaded Orioles lineup. I think there's trouble brewing for the Sox in their home opener on Tuesday. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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04-08-24 | Rays -135 v. Angels | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We'll get another shot at fading Angels starter Tyler Anderson at a reasonable price after he inexplicably tossed seven shutout innings against the Marlins in his 2024 debut. Los Angeles is coming off a series loss at home against another (weaker) A.L. East opponent in the Red Sox. The Rays come in off a series win in Colorado and will look to keep it rolling with Zach Eflin on the mound on Monday. He shook off a rough debut against the Blue Jays by holding the Rangers to just one earned run over 6 1/3 innings last time out. I would consider Anderson one of the more overpaid starters in baseball right now and will gladly fade him in this matchup. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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04-08-24 | Marlins +145 v. Yankees | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over New York at 6:05 pm et on Monday. The Marlins finally picked up their first victory of the season on Sunday and I look for them to notch a second straight win on Monday as they hand the ball to Jesus Luzardo against Nestor Cortes of the Yankees. I'm not going to knock Luzardo for a shaky outing against the Angels last time out. His FIP north of four is going to come down in time while he has recorded a sub-1.00 FIP through his first two starts. Cortes' first couple of starts haven't been all that encouraging for a pitcher approaching 30 years of age that has dealt with shoulder concerns. Through two outings, Cortes owns a 4.30 FIP and 1.70 WHIP. Coming off three straight series victories to open the campaign, I look for the Yankees to get tripped up here. Take Miami (8*). |
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04-07-24 | Padres v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Padres starter Matt Waldron's stay at the big league level could prove to be short-lived but we want to fade him while we can as he makes his second start of the campaign in San Francisco on Sunday. Waldron actually looked pretty good in the Spring, earning a role in the starting rotation. His first regular season outing didn't go so well as he allowed nine hits and four earned runs in just four innings of work. The Giants will get their second look at the knuckle-baller after facing him in late September last year. Waldron recorded a 5.46 FIP in 41 1/3 big league innings last season. San Francisco will hand the ball to Logan Webb as he looks to shake off a rough outing in Los Angeles earlier this week. I'm not overly concerned by that shaky performance as Webb was terrific in his regular season debut (against these same Padres). The Giants ace owns a career 2.56 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts against San Diego. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-07-24 | Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Washington at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. While it features back-of-the-rotation starters, I do think we'll see a pretty good pitching matchup on Sunday afternoon in Washington. Christopher Sanchez had a miserable Spring but shook that off to toss five quality innings in his regular season debut, striking out eight while allowing just two earned runs against the Reds. He was serviceable last year, recording a 3.99 FIP and 1.05 WHIP in just shy of 100 innings pitched. Mackenzie Gore will counter for Washington. He was shaky in his first regular season outing. There are going to be plenty of ups and downs with Gore but the potential is there to rise to the occasion in spots like this one where the Nationals are trying to avoid the sweep. The Phillies aren't exactly tearing the cover off the baseball right now having scored more than four runs just twice in seven games to date. Take the under (8*). |
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04-06-24 | Mets v. Reds -115 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over New York at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series yesterday but that was their game to get in my opinion as they had veteran Jose Quintana going against Hunter Greene. On Saturday, the starting pitching advantage flips back to the Reds as they send Nick Martinez to the hill against Luis Severino. I think Severino might just be done as a productive big league starter. Starting pitchers at his age don't tend to enjoy sudden turnarounds and he showed us nothing in his regular season debut, getting lit up for 11 hits and six earned runs in just five innings of work against Milwaukee. The Mets took a flyer on the veteran right-hander but we won't do the same. Martinez has showed some promise in a starting role over the course of his career. He didn't have his best stuff in his regular season debut with the Reds but after a fine Spring, I'm willing to give him a pass. Look for the Reds bats to wake from their slumber on Saturday. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
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04-06-24 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 8 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams yesterday afternoon at Wrigley Field but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Yoshinobu Yamomoto had a rough Spring and followed it up with a shaky regular season debut for the Dodgers. However, his second start went a lot better and I look for him to build off of that performance here. Note that Yamamoto actually dropped his FIP all the way to 1.85 on the campaign following his most recent effort. His opposing starter on Saturday will be Jordan Wicks. I'm relatively high on the Cubs left-hander who dazzled in the Spring and while he didn't have his best stuff in his first regular season outing, he did hang in there for four innings allowing only two earned runs, logging a 2.43 FIP. Look for runs to come at a premium at Wrigley on Saturday. Take the under (8*). |
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04-05-24 | Mariners v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 5-6 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We saw what we needed to from Mariners starter Logan Gilbert in his regular season debut as he was dominant over seven innings against the Guardians. Now he faces a similarly tricky lineup in Milwaukee but I'm confident he'll be up to the task. Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has quite simply been the picture of consistency when healthy and he shook off a rough Spring to toss six razor sharp innings in his first start of the campaign. The Mariners bats have yet to wake up from their Spring slumber, already held to one run or less on three different occasions this season. Take the under (8*). |
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04-05-24 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring game in Atlanta on Friday. Tommy Henry will get the start for the visiting Diamondbacks. Even the most casual observer could see that there was trouble brewing for Henry last season. He had an awful Spring and followed it up with an ugly regular season debut last week. Now he draws an extremely difficult test in the Braves home opener on Friday. Spencer Strider was lights out in the Spring but his first regular season outing was about what we've come to expect from the Braves ace - plenty of strikeouts (eight) but also a couple of runs allowed. I do think the D'Backs bats can get to him here, even if he does end up hanging another crooked number of K's on the board. The potential for a 6-5 type of game is there in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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04-04-24 | White Sox v. Royals -1.5 | 1-10 | Win | 126 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Royals let the Orioles off the hook last night, blowing a late 3-0 lead in a 4-3 defeat. I don't expect them to suffer the same fate as they return home to host the White Sox on Thursday. Chicago is coming off a rain-out against the Braves yesterday. Mike Soroka is expected to get the start for the Sox. He was roughed up early in his season debut before settling down. So far so good on the injury front for the right-hander. I do think expectations should be tempered as he is by no means a number two starter for most teams in baseball. Seth Lugo is in his sweet spot as a home favorite, noting his teams have gone 16-5 (+7.6 net games) in his last 21 starts in that role. The White Sox check in a woeful 58-81 (-30.8 net games) in their last 139 contests following a victory, as is the case here. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-03-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a low-scoring affair as the Giants and Dodgers do battle in the third game of their series on Wednesday. Kyle Harrison is a pitcher I'm willing to get behind as he comes off a a fine rookie campaign in which he proved he has the stuff to deceive hitters at the big league level. Tyler Glasnow is of course already an elite starter that earned a big contract from the Dodgers in the offseason and has been terrific through two starts this season (following a lights out Spring), allowing only nine of 42 batters he has faced to reach base. Expect runs to come at a premium in this one. Take the under (8*). |
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04-03-24 | Pirates -151 v. Nationals | 3-5 | Loss | -151 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Washington at 6:45 pm et on Wednesday. This is a pitching mismatch that isn't being properly reflected in the price. Mitch Keller is a serviceable starter for the Pirates. He will be looking to bounce back following a shaky first start of the regular season, however. I'm confident he'll rebound, noting he recorded a 3.80 FIP and 1.25 WHIP last season (and has posted a sub-4.00 FIP in three consecutive years). Trevor Williams, a former Pirate, will counter for Washington. He was awful for the Nationals last season and even worse in the Spring. Starters of this age and quality don't tend to enjoy sudden rebounds. Look for the Buccos bats to stay hot. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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04-03-24 | Reds v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. It's not too often we can talk about a potential pitcher's duel in a game involving these two teams but I do think that is the case on Wednesday. Frankie Montas had a rough Spring as he works his way back from injuries. He shrugged it off in his regular season debut, however, as he allowed just four of 21 batters to reach base over six shutout frames against the Nationals. Montas still has terrific stuff, his health is the only real concern and that's not a big issue at the moment. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. He was also terrific in his regular season debut, allowing only five of 23 batters to reach base in six shutout innings. Wheeler was also lights out in the Spring, recording a 1.26 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings of work. Take the under (8*). |
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04-03-24 | Angels v. Marlins -114 | 10-2 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. While most have already written off the the Marlins it's important to remember we're less than a week into the season. I like the matchup here as they look to tee off on Patrick Sandoval. The left-hander hasn't been good in his recent years, wasn't good in the Spring and was downright awful in his regular season debut. The opportunities have been there for the Marlins offensively, they simply haven't been able to cash in. Today they will. A.J. Puk won't be asked to do too much for Miami in a starter's role here. It's not as if the Angels bats are setting the world on fire, producing just three runs in last night's victory. Take Miami (8*). |
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04-02-24 | Giants +130 v. Dodgers | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants got drummed 8-3 in the opener of this series last night. I look for them to bounce back from consecutive losses as they send steady right-hander Logan Webb to the hill on Tuesday. Webb comes off three consecutive seasons in which he recorded an xERA of 3.31 or better including a 2.98 mark last year. The Dodgers haven't settled on a starter for Tuesday's game as of yet. We'll back the Giants as an 'action' bet here as Los Angeles isn't brimming with favorable options for the slot. Take San Francisco (8*). |
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04-02-24 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks -111 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over New York at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Nestor Cortes was awful in exhibition action and struggled in his regular season debut as well. You have to wonder whether his shoulder issues from a year ago are still a factor. The Yankees are undoubtedly rolling out of the gate but I expect the Diamondbacks to bounce back from last night's series-opening loss. Arizona has been hot at the dish early in the campaign as well and should get to Cortes early and often. Zac Gallen looked good in his first start of the campaign, allowing just one earned run over five innings. He faces a much tougher test in his second outing but it's worth noting that he did pitch six shutout frames against New York last September. Take Arizona (8*). |
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04-02-24 | Rockies v. Cubs -1.5 | 2-12 | Win | 115 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. Kyle Freeland remains in the Rockies rotation for another year and if his season debut was any indication, it's likely to be another long one for the veteran left-hander. Freeland has had previous success in two career starts at Wrigley Field. Those came prior to 2019 though. We can expect the Cubs bats to tee off on the soft-tossing southpaw on Tuesday. Javier Assad is a typical back-of-the-rotation starter but not a bad one by any means. He'll give Chicago 5-6 effective innings against a stuttering Rockies offense on Tuesday. I'm not interested in paying near -200 prices this early in the season but will lay the extra run for a plus-money return with the Cubbies here. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-02-24 | Angels v. Marlins -140 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. This is one of the bigger starting pitching mismatches on Tuesday's board but it isn't being priced like it. Tyler Anderson will start the year in the Angels rotation. That's only because he earned a big contract following consecutive solid campaigns in 2021 and 2022. He wasn't good in 2023 and I don't expect him to turn back the clock in 2024. The Marlins will hand the ball to their ace Jesus Luzardo. His ho-hum season debut against the Pirates (a game the Marlins lost) keeps the price in a reasonable range here. I expect Luzardo to make the leap to elite status this season, if he's not already there, but it will take some time for the betting marketplace to come around (and for the Marlins bats to start producing). I like the spot off last night's loss. Take Miami (10*). |
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04-02-24 | Twins v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. I think we're going to see a better pitching matchup than most are expecting as these interleague foes square off on Tuesday afternoon in Milwaukee. Louie Varland has always had potential but ended up getting demoted last season after coming down with case of the yips and proving unable to keep the ball in the park. He did fare better after getting called back up in September and there's reason to believe he can battle for a spot in the Twins starting rotation this season. Jake Junis is in a similar boat potential-wise. He simply hasn't been able to put it all together but has certainly shown flashes of brilliance in time spent with the Royals and Giants. While the Twins do have some terrific hitters sprinkled in their starting nine, they're not going to be an offensive juggernaut, as we saw in their first series as they plated just nine runs in three games against the Royals. Take the under (8*). |
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04-01-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Giants are coming off an exceptionally high-scoring series in San Diego. Meanwhile, the Dodgers saw plenty of runs in their home series against the Cardinals. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as these N.L. West rivals match up for the first time in 2024. Keaton Winn will take the ball for the visiting Giants. He's probably better than a back-of-the-rotation starter after an up-and-down 2023 campaign. Winn saw limited action in the Spring but did record a 3.18 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He's a ground ball pitcher with an effective splitter that should keep the Dodgers mighty bats guessing on Monday. Veteran James Paxton joins the Dodgers after spending last season with the Red Sox. He should benefit from moving over to the National League (and making most of his starts at Dodger Stadium) at this stage of his career. Paxton worked seven innings in the Spring, logging a 5.14 ERA but a solid 1.14 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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04-01-24 | Braves -1.5 v. White Sox | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Monday. This is a smash spot for the Braves off Sunday's loss in Philadelphia. Atlanta sends Charlie Morton to the mound against Chris Flexen of the White Sox. Morton had a terrific Spring posting a sub-3.00 ERA after turning back the clock to the tune of a 3.64 ERA in 2023. Flexen will be pitching for his fourth big league club after stints with the Mets, Mariners and Rockies. Things haven't gone particularly well for the right-hander in any of his previous stops. For his career he owns a 4.97 FIP and 1.49 WHIP in just shy of 500 innings of work. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
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03-31-24 | Red Sox +134 v. Mariners | 5-1 | Win | 134 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Mariners walked the Red Sox off on a Julio Rodriguez extra innings RBI single on Saturday, notching their second straight win in this series. I look for Boston to bounce back behind an underrated starter in Garrett Whitlock on Sunday. Whitlock had a fantastic Spring following a so-so 2023 campaign. While Whitlock did record an ERA north of five last season he was certainly better than that with a FIP nearly a full run lower. Bryce Miller will get the start for Seattle. He's considered among the 'big three' of young arms in the Mariners starting rotation but I do think he's a notch below both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. Seattle continues to have a tough time manufacturing offense and at this price, I'm willing to fade it on Sunday. Take Boston (8*). |
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03-30-24 | Yankees v. Astros -128 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston over New York at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Astros have dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to bounce back behind impressive young starter Hunter Brown on Saturday. Not that Spring Training numbers ultimately mean all that much but Brown was electric during exhibition play, posting a 2.12 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 17 strikeouts in 17 innings of work. The long season ultimately wore on Brown in 2023 but I look for a big sophomore campaign for the right-hander and this is a big stage for him in his season debut, facing the mighty Yankees off consecutive losses. New York will hand the ball to newly-acquired Marcus Stroman. He's coming off an All-Star campaign and makes the jump back to the American League. Note that Stroman's teams are just 11-19 (-3.2 net games) in his last 30 starts as an underdog priced between +125 and +175 including a 2-6 (-2.9 net games) record in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-29-24 | Blue Jays v. Rays -113 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 6:50 pm et on Friday. The Blue Jays smashed the Rays on Opening Day but I look for Tampa Bay to return the favor on Friday. Jays starter Chris Bassitt didn't have a great Spring, allowing 28-of-93 batters he faced to reach base. Last season, he recorded a middling 4.28 FIP and 1.18 WHIP. Aaron Civale will counter for Tampa Bay. He posted an ERA north of five during the Spring but did allow only 13-of-47 batters he faced to reach base. Civale saw his home runs allowed take a jump in 2023 but the rest of his numbers were fine. He has recorded a 3.57 FIP or better in each of the last three seasons. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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11-01-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Rangers held on for an 11-7 victory to push the Diamondbacks to the brink of elimination. This Game 5 matchup will feature a rematch of Game 1 of the series with Nathan Eovaldi going up against Zac Gallen. While Eovaldi has been a good luck charm for the Rangers in these playoffs (they've yet to lose with him on the mound), Gallen has struggled. I do think we'll see the latter rise to the occasion in this must-win game at home though, noting that his strikeout-to-walk ratio nearly doubles at home compared to on the road and he has recorded a sparkling 2.47 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 16 outings at Chase Field this season. There's been no real difference whether Eovaldi has been on the road or at home this season and while he didn't have his best stuff in the series-opener, he still struck out eight while walking only one in 4 2/3 innings of work. The bullpens were asked to take on a lot of mop-up duty last night. Here, I look for both teams relief corps' to lock right back in as this figures to be a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (8*). |
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10-31-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
World Series Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers gained the upper hand in this series last night as they jumped all over Diamondbacks rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt early and cruised to a 3-1 victory. I look for Arizona to answer back on Tuesday in what sets up as a battle of the bullpens. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the visiting Rangers but isn't likely to be given a long leash. He has pitched just 2 1/3 innings in the last two rounds of the playoffs, allowing six of the 13 batters he has faced to reach base. On the season, Heaney owns a very pedestrian 4.66 FIP and 1.38 WHIP. Reliever Joe Mantiply will counter for Arizona. Again, we can expect to see only an inning or so from the left-hander. I liked the way the D'Backs managed their bullpen in last night's defeat as they kept key arms like Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel and closer Paul Sewald fresh for Game 4 on Tuesday. As expected in a tight game playing with the lead, the Rangers used both setup man Aroldis Chapman and closer Jose Leclerc. The Rangers already accomplished their goal of at least getting this series back to Texas for a Game 6. Now the pressure is squarely on Arizona as it can ill afford to go down 3-1 against a team as good as Texas. The D'Backs have proven resilient throughout these playoffs and I look for them to answer the bell once again on Tuesday. Take Arizona (10*). |
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10-30-23 | Rangers -104 v. Diamondbacks | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Monday. It wasn't all that surprising to see the Diamondbacks rebound following their disheartening loss in Game 1 of this series. After all, the Snakes have been incredibly resilient throughout these playoffs and didn't want to go down the path of needing to rally from an 0-2 series deficit again the way they did last round. Here, I think it's advantage Rangers as the series shifts to Arizona for Game 3. Veteran Max Scherzer hasn't pitched particularly well in his two playoff starts this year, but he was certainly 'good enough' in the fifth and deciding game against the Astros last round as Texas rolled to an 11-4 victory. Scherzer has absolutely manhandled the current Diamondbacks roster, holding them to a collective 16-for-103 (.155) with 39 strikeouts and eight walks. Meanwhile, D'Backs rookie Brandon Pfaadt has impressed in his four playoff starts but he faces a tall task here as the current Rangers roster torched the right-hander in a regular season matchup, hitting a combined 9-for-19 (.474) with four home runs and only three strikeouts. Take Texas (8*). |
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10-24-23 | Diamondbacks +158 v. Phillies | 4-2 | Win | 158 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The pressure rests squarely on the shoulders of the Phillies in Game 7 on Tuesday after they squandered an opportunity to close out this series at home yesterday. Most expected the Diamondbacks to go off quietly into that good night after dropping Games 1 and 2 in this series. Instead, Arizona answered back with consecutive wins of its own at home before dropping Game 5. Now this youthful team has all the confidence in the world as it looks to stun Philadelphia in front of its home faithful on Tuesday. Rookie Brandon Pfaadt will take the ball for the D'Backs. He displayed some nerves in his first career playoff start in Milwaukee but that seems like ages ago now as he's bounced back by silencing both the Dodgers and these same Phillies in his last two outings. In those two starts, Pfaadt yielded just four hits and no walks while striking out 11 in 10 shutout innings. Current Phillies hitters are a combined 2-for-18 off of the rookie right-hander. Ranger Suarez will counter for Philadelphia. Like Pfaadt, he's been sharp over his last two starts, three if you include a brief outing against the Braves in the NLDS. I don't believe he has the same dominant stuff or extra gear to reach back to compared to Pfaadt, however. What you see is what you get with the veteran left-hander. In 125 innings of work this season he owns a rather pedestrian 3.90 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. If we've learned one thing in these playoffs it's to expect the unexpected and what could be more unexpected than a Rangers-Diamondbacks World Series matchup? Take Arizona (8*). |
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10-23-23 | Rangers +114 v. Astros | Top | 11-4 | Win | 114 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
ALCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Bettors will likely be quick to back the Astros to bounce back following last night's blown opportunity to close out this series at home, especially given we're going to see the same pitching matchup from Game 3 - a contest Houston led virtually wire-to-wire in an 8-5 victory. I like Rangers veteran and future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer's chances of bouncing back here, however, after he pitched for the first time in over a month in Game 3. Scherzer said after the game that he had more in the tank but agreed with manager Bruce Bochy's decision to lift him from the game after four innings with the Rangers trailing 5-0. While Mad Max got off to a shaky start in that contest, he did settle down and strike out the final two batters he faced and threw 42-of-63 pitches for strikes. We know the moment isn't too big for Scherzer as he's been in similar situations before. Also note that his teams have gone a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts here at Minute Maid Park, including 2-0 in postseason play (as a member of the Nationals in 2019). Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He's posted tremendous postseason stats during his career and has successfully bounced back in these playoffs following a rough regular season. With that being said, I don't think there's any intimidation factor at play here as the Rangers will be seeing Javier for the eighth time since the start of last season. He didn't last beyond the sixth inning in any of those previous seven outings against Texas. In fact, he's failed to make it through the sixth inning in any of his last four starts against the Rangers. Texas is a perfect 7-0 on the road in these playoffs but it will be all for not if it can't secure a Game 7 victory on Monday night. I expect the Rangers to rise to the occasion once again. Take Texas (10*). |
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10-20-23 | Phillies -124 v. Diamondbacks | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Phillies offense dried up in last night's 2-1 defeat as they let the Diamondbacks back into the series. I expect Arizona's success to be short-lived, however, as it looks to even the series at two games apiece on Friday. Cristopher Sanchez will take the ball for the Phillies in Game 4. I wouldn't put too much stock into his presence at the start of this game as he's likely to be on a short leash having not pitched since September 30th and not started a game since September 27th. He's held his own on the road this season, holding opposing batters to a .207 average while giving up only five extra-base hits in 92 plate appearances. Joe Mantiply will get the start for the D'Backs in what amounts to a bullpen game. I think there's a good chance the Phillies jump all over the left-hander, noting their current hitters are a combined 14-for-31 including six extra-base hits against him. Interestingly, Bryce Harper is 0-for-4 against Mantiply but I'd rather bet on Harper noting he's been one of the Phillies hottest hitters in these playoffs, batting .357 with four home runs. He was 0-for-2 last night. The last time he went hitless in a playoff game (and only previous time he did so this October) he responded by going 2-for-2 in Game 1 of the NLDS in Atlanta, helping Philadelphia to a 3-0 victory. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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10-19-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks +117 | 1-2 | Win | 117 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Philadelphia at 5:05 pm et on Thursday. For the Phillies, picking up two more wins and moving on to the World Series for a second straight year seems like only a formality at this point. With that being said, I don't think the Diamondbacks will go away quietly as the series shifts to Arizona for Game 3 on Thursday afternoon. Ranger Suarez will get the start for Philadelphia. He pitched well in two NLDS starts against Atlanta although not much was asked of him as he faced just 13 and 18 batters in those two contests. The D'Backs have had some success against the left-hander, going a combined 20-for-70 (.270) against him with only 15 strikeouts and 11 walks. Brandon Pfaadt will counter for Arizona. The rookie struggled in his playoff debut against the Brewers (in Milwaukee) but rebounded in his next outing against the Dodgers (at home), throwing 30-of-42 pitches for strikes and allowing just two hits over 4 1/3 shutout innings. Note that the Phillies are just 6-12 this season after allowing four runs or less in four consecutive games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 runs in that situation. Take Arizona (8*). |
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10-18-23 | Astros +121 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 121 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not entirely sure why the Rangers are messing with their starting rotation and inserting Max Scherzer on Wednesday when they've clearly got a good thing going in that regard. The Rangers are saying all the right things and we know Scherzer is the ultimate competitor so he wants to be out there but he's only thrown a 65 or 70-pitch bullpen session ahead of this critical start and I won't be surprised if the Astros jump all over him, just as they did back on September 6th, right here in Texas (Houston scored seven earned runs off of Scherzer in just three innings). Cristian Javier will get the call for the Astros. He improved on his terrific career postseason numbers with a masterful outing against the Twins in the ALDS. Houston has to feel as if it has the right guy on the hill to get it back into this series noting that it has gone 7-3 in Javier's 10 previous starts against Texas. Current Rangers hitters are just 30-for-123 (.244) off of Javier with only 12 extra-base hits. Take Houston (8*). |
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks +149 v. Phillies | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
NLCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Phillies took the opener of this series by a 5-3 score last night, notching their fifth consecutive victory at home in these playoffs. I look for that streak to come to an end on Tuesday, however, as the Diamondbacks hand the ball to Merrill Kelly against Aaron Nola of the Phillies. Kelly should have a live arm having not pitched since October 7th, when he helped the D'Backs to an 11-2 rout of the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Since getting rocked for seven earned runs against the Mets on September 14th, Kelly has allowed just four earned runs in four starts, covering a span of 25 innings of work. Note that Arizona has won 10 of Kelly's 16 road starts this season. Aaron Nola recorded nine strikeouts against Atlanta last time out and while most bettors will look at that as a positive, high strikeout totals have been problematic for Nola in his next start this season. After striking out nine or more batters, Nola has gone on to allow 5, 6, 0, 4 and 7 earned runs in his next outing with the Phillies going 0-5 in those contests. The D'Backs should be happy to be facing Nola noting that he owns a 7.67 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five career starts against them. While Arizona has now dropped four straight meetings with the Phillies, that actually sets up favorably here as it has gone 7-1 when seeking quadruple-revenge against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.0 runs on average in that situation. Take Arizona (10*). |
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10-16-23 | Rangers v. Astros -118 | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Texas at 4:35 pm et on Monday. The Rangers took the opener of this series last night, improving to an incredible 6-0 in the postseason. I look for the Astros to answer back on Monday as they send Framber Valdez to the hill against Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers. It's worth noting that Texas hasn't won consecutive games against Houston since back in May of 2021. Eovaldi has struggled mightily against current Astros hitters, allowing 45 hits in 145 at-bats (.310). That includes a whopping 22 extra-base hits, not to mention a modest 27:16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Framber Valdez hasn't pitched particularly well lately but I like his chances of rising to the occasion in this critical matchup. He owns a 3.64 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home this season and will be happy to be pitching in the daytime, having logged a sparkling 1.32 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in five afternoon starts this year. While the Rangers were able to close out last night's game, they've blown 16 saves while converting only 13 on the road this season. Take Houston (8*). |
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10-11-23 | Dodgers -140 v. Diamondbacks | 2-4 | Loss | -140 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Dodgers couldn't get their offense going at all in Games 1 and 2 in Los Angeles. With this game projected to be much higher-scoring, I look for L.A. to find its way back into the series with a victory. Lance Lynn will be tasked with stopping the bleeding for the Dodgers. I believe he's the right guy on the mound in this moment, noting that he has held current Diamondbacks hitters to a combined 10-for-50 at the plate. It's a much different story for D'Backs rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt. He was shaky in his postseason debut in Milwaukee. Now he goes up against a Dodgers club that has clocked him to the tune of 16-for-42 (.381) at the dish with eight extra-base hits. Pfaadt won't have a very long leash in this game. Note that Los Angeles is 18-4 when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 runs in that situation. Arizona checks in 15-24 when coming off a victory by two runs or less this season, outscored by 1.1 runs on average in that spot. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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10-10-23 | Astros v. Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Minnesota at 4:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way the 'under' sets up in Game 3 of this series on Tuesday afternoon in Minnesota. Astros starter Cristian Javier had a tough regular season as a whole. Big things were expected of the young right-hander after a phenomenal 2022 campaign but he struggled for the most part. The good news is, he did close out the campaign in solid form, posting a 2.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over his last three starts. Also note that Javier, while young, has been here before, logging a 4-1 record to go along with a 2.20 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 14 career playoff appearances. Twins starter Sonny Gray has recorded a 2.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season - Cy Young Award-caliber numbers for the underrated right-hander. Gray tossed five shutout innings against the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. For his career, Gray owns a 2.39 ERA with 24 strikeouts in five postseason appearances. Both bullpens are in solid form and of course the off day on Monday helps their cause. Also note that Bill Miller will be the umpire on Tuesday and he has seen the 'under' cash at a 440-363 clip over the course of his career, including a 17-12 mark this season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -149 | 4-2 | Loss | -149 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Diamondbacks are the Cinderella story of this year’s playoffs but I do expect their three-game winning streak to come to an end on Monday. Zac Gallen will take the ball for Arizona. While he’s had another terrific season he’s up against a Dodgers lineup that is familiar with his stuff. A whopping seven different Los Angeles hitters have homered off of Gallen. Rookie Bobby Miller will counter for the Dodgers. I like the fact that he gets to make his playoff debut at home. A lot is expected of the Dodgers young pitchers with the likes of Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin sidelined and I look for Miller to rise to the occasion with L.A. coming off a loss in Game 1. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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10-09-23 | Phillies v. Braves -149 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Monday. The Braves dropped the opener of this series in shutout fashion on Saturday but that sets them up well to rebound in Game 2 in Atlanta on Monday. Note that Atlanta has gone 70-26 all-time with Max Fried on the mound as a favorite, as is the case here. The Braves are also 47-21 when coming off consecutive losses against an opponent, which is also the situation here (Atlanta has dropped its last two meetings with Philadelphia), over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Phillies check in just 6-11 when coming off four or more consecutive games in which they allowed four runs or less this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 runs in that situation. We'll also favor the Braves noting that Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has posted a 7-11 team record in 18 previous nighttime starts this season. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves -195 | 3-0 | Loss | -195 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. I expect plenty of runs on the board as the Braves send Spencer Strider to the hill against Ranger Suarez in Game 1 of this NLDS on Saturday. Current Braves hitters have actually been held at bay to a certain extent by Suarez, combining to go 27-for-113 (.239). However, four different Braves have homered off of the left-hander previously and I believe a number of bats in their lineup are in line for some positive regression here. Note that Michael Harris in particular is just 1-for-13 against Suarez but hasn't really been getting fooled, striking out only twice. That's a common theme. As a whole, the Braves have struck out just 23 times while walking 16 times against Suarez. Compare that to Spencer Strider against current Phillies hitters. Strider has held the Philadelphia bats to a 25-for-146 (.171) ledger at the dish, racking up a whopping 60 strikeouts while walking only 10. With that said, four different Phillies hitters have also homered off of Strider. If the Braves have an achilles heel it's their bullpen as they've blown 13 saves at home this season and rate out poorly in terms of hits and home runs allowed. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 151-111 with the Phillies coming off a win over a division opponent in which they allowed one run or less, leading to an average total of 9.5 runs in that situation while the 'over' is 21-8 with the Braves at home seeking revenge for a one-run loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 10.6 runs. Take the over (8*). |
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10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. I expect plenty of runs on the board as the Braves send Spencer Strider to the hill against Ranger Suarez in Game 1 of this NLDS on Saturday. Current Braves hitters have actually been held at bay to a certain extent by Suarez, combining to go 27-for-113 (.239). However, four different Braves have homered off of the left-hander previously and I believe a number of bats in their lineup are in line for some positive regression here. Note that Michael Harris in particular is just 1-for-13 against Suarez but hasn't really been getting fooled, striking out only twice. That's a common theme. As a whole, the Braves have struck out just 23 times while walking 16 times against Suarez. Compare that to Spencer Strider against current Phillies hitters. Strider has held the Philadelphia bats to a 25-for-146 (.171) ledger at the dish, racking up a whopping 60 strikeouts while walking only 10. With that said, four different Phillies hitters have also homered off of Strider. If the Braves have an achilles heel it's their bullpen as they've blown 13 saves at home this season and rate out poorly in terms of hits and home runs allowed. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 151-111 with the Phillies coming off a win over a division opponent in which they allowed one run or less, leading to an average total of 9.5 runs in that situation while the 'over' is 21-8 with the Braves at home seeking revenge for a one-run loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 10.6 runs. Take the over (8*). |
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10-04-23 | Rangers v. Rays OVER 8 | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Tampa Bay at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday. Nathan Eovaldi will get the start for the Rangers on Wednesday as they try to eliminate the Rays and advance to an ALDS matchup with the Orioles. The good news is, Texas' scoring floor has been fairly solid in this particular matchup this season as it has produced at least three runs in seven previous matchups, averaging 4.4 runs per game along the way. I do think the Rays hold up their end of the bargain offensively on Wednesday as well, though, following yesterday's embarrassing shutout loss. Eovaldi was a mess down the stretch in the regular season. He returned from injury at the beginning of September and proceeded to allow 21 earned runs in six starts, spanning 20 1/3 innings of work. The 'over' went 4-1-1 in those six contests. Zach Eflin will counter for Tampa Bay. He showed signs of wearing down in September, lasting just five innings in four of his last five starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 27 innings over that stretch. Neither bullpen impresses me all that much, noting that the two teams have combined to blow 56 saves this season with both getting bitten by the long ball on a consistent basis. Take the over (8*). |
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10-03-23 | Rangers v. Rays -146 | 4-0 | Loss | -146 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Texas at 3:05 pm et on Tuesday. Rangers starter Jordan Montgomery pitched exceptionally well down the stretch, allowing just two earned runs over his last four starts. He's made 14 career starts against the Rays and hasn't fared well, however, posting a 4.93 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Current Tampa Bay hitters have had plenty of success against the left-hander, batting just shy of .300 in 84 at-bats with six home runs. Rays starter Tyler Glasnow will be pleased to be facing the Rangers as he owns a 0.46 ERA and 0.56 WHIP, albeit in just three career outings against them. Glasnow also checks in sporting a 3.18 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash with one important exception. The Rangers have converted just 30 saves this season while blowing an identical 30. Meanwhile, the Rays 'pen has converted 45 saves while blowing only 26. This series won't be a walk for Tampa Bay but I do expect it to gain the upper hand in Game 1 on Tuesday. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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09-30-23 | Dodgers -160 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over San Francisco at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. Clayton Kershaw will get his final start of the regular season for the Dodgers on Saturday and while this is a meaningless game in the grand scheme of things, I do expect the future Hall-of-Famer to keep the same approach and take care of his business the way he always does. Kershaw will undoubtedly be happy to be facing the Giants, noting that he owns a 1.98 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 56 career starts against them. He most recently tossed five shutout innings in a 7-0 victory over San Francisco one week ago tonight. San Francisco will give the start to Tristan Beck. He's been reasonably effective out of the bullpen this season but not so much as a starter. In two previous starts, Beck has allowed nine earned runs in seven innings. Note that the trio of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and J.D. Martinez have gone a combined 5-for-9 off of Beck without a single strikeout. The Dodgers bullpen doesn't own as much of an advantage as you might think in this game as the Giants relief corps has been fairly reliable if not overworked (they're approaching 700 innings pitched on the season). With that said, the Los Angeles bullpen is easy to trust away from home, where it has converted 21 saves while blowing only six this season. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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09-30-23 | Red Sox v. Orioles -130 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox were shutout victors in last night's matchup between these two teams, evening the series at a game apiece. I look for the Orioles to answer back on Saturday. Kutter Crawford will take the ball for Boston. He's lasted six innings just once in his last six starts and checks in sporting a 5.69 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 13 nighttime starts this season. Current Orioles hitters have had plenty of success against Crawford, reaching him for 11 hits in 22 at-bats with only three strikeouts to go along with three walks. Kyle Gibson will counter for Baltimore. He's given the O's a big lift when it counts this season, logging a 3.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in eight starts against A.L. East opponents, with Baltimore winning six of those contests. He's also closing out the regular season in excellent form, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over his last three starts. For his career, Gibson has recorded a 3.72 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in nine previous starts against Boston. The Orioles own a slight advantage in terms of the bullpen matchup. Baltimore's relief corps has posted a collective 1.86 ERA and 0.62 WHIP over the last seven games, being called into duty for only 19 1/3 innings over that stretch. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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09-29-23 | Cubs -111 v. Brewers | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Cubs margin for error is razor-thin at this point after they were swept in a three-game series in Atlanta. The good news is, they're heading to Milwaukee to face a Brewers club that wrapped up the N.L. Central title earlier this week and will be looking to give some of their regular starters some rest during this series. I do think Chicago has the right guy on the mound to end its losing skid on Friday as it hands the ball to veteran Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs are a perfect 4-0 in his last four outings against the Brewers. Current Milwaukee hitters have gone a woeful 34-for-152 (.224) with 40 strikeouts and 17 walks against Hendricks. He deserved better than the loss he received in his most recent outing as he gave up three earned runs, only one of them earned, over six innings against the Pirates. The fact that Hendricks hasn't allowed a home run in seven of his last eight starts is a good indicator that he's in solid form down the stretch. Colin Rea will counter for Milwaukee. He was demoted to the bullpen following his last start. Rea pitched reasonably well earlier in the season but has seen his FIP rise to 5.07 thanks to a rough stretch this month. He lasted fewer than five innings in each of his four September starts. It's difficult to get a sense for how Cubs hitters will fare against Rea as only Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario have seen him previously (a combined three at-bats). The Brewers bullpen has certainly been superior to that of the Cubs this season but I question how Milwaukee will handle its key relief arms (likely very carefully) in this series with the playoffs on the horizon. Take Chicago (8*). |
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09-28-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. Dakota Hudson has been a fixture in the Cardinals starting rotation since the beginning of August but it's been out of necessity only. He owns a 5.14 FIP and 1.47 WHIP on the season and runs into a Brewers club that has had plenty of success against him. Current Milwaukee hitters are 18-for-54 (.333) off Hudson and the right-hander has recorded an ugly 9:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Note that Hudson has been at his worst on the road this season, logging a 7.62 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in five starts, allowing a ridiculous 37 hits in 26 innings while posting a 9:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. I understand why bettors might be a little spooked after the Brewers sent out their 'B' lineup last night (after clinching the N.L. Central the night previous) but I'm not overly concerned. Corbin Burnes will get the call for Milwaukee. He's alternated good and bad starts going all the way back to the second week of August. After tossing five shutout innings in Miami last time out, you have to figure he's in for some regression here. Note that Burnes hasn't been his dominant self this season, recording a 4.50 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 13 home starts (the 'over' has gone 9-4). Even if we don't see a bullpen implosion, I believe this total is low enough for these two teams to get 'over' it. Take the over (8*). |
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09-27-23 | Padres -105 v. Giants | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. To say Padres hitters have worn out former teammate Sean Manaea would be an understatement. They've gone a combined 26-for-78 (.333) off the left-hander including 11 extra-base hits. Manaea is coming off a stunning seven-inning, shutout performance on the road against the Dodgers but I'm willing to pay to see him to do it again here. On the season, Manaea owns a 5.48 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 23 innings of work here at home. Rookie Matt Waldron will counter for the Padres. He's been getting better with each start, most recently striking out nine and allowing only one earned run in 5 2/3 innings in a 4-2 victory over the Cardinals. Prior to that he gave up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in a 4-2 road win over the A's. I'll continue to beat the drum that the Giants bullpen is severely overworked in the final week of the season. San Francisco's relief corps is approaching a whopping 700 collective innings on the campaign. In stark contrast, the Padres bullpen entered last night's contest having logged just 561 innings. Take San Diego (8*). |
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09-27-23 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. We've now seen three straight meetings between these two N.L. West rivals stay 'under' the total including the first two contests in this series. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday, noting you would have to go back to the end of the 2021 season and the beginning of 2022 to find the last time we saw an 'under' streak lasting more than two games in this matchup. Of note, Giants starter Sean Manaea has seen two of his last six trips to the hill result in BOTH teams scoring double-digit runs. The 'under' cashed in his most recent outing against the Dodgers but you would have to go back to last September to find the last time he recorded 'under' results in consecutive starts. The Padres have been a better offensive club on the road this season where they average 5.0 runs per game but they've also allowed 0.4 runs per game above their season average away from home, good for an average total of 9.5 runs. Finally, the possibility of late offensive production is certainly in play with the Padres bullpen having recorded a 5.02 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the last seven games and the Giants 'pen severely overworked on the campaign, approaching 700 total innings and having posted a 6.18 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the over (10*). |
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09-27-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee over St. Louis at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers jumped ahead early and had their opportunity to throw a knockout punch against the reeling Cardinals in last night's series-opener, but squandered it in an eventual 4-1 loss. I look for Milwaukee to bounce back on Wednesday as it hands the ball to veteran left-hander Wade Miley against Zack Thompson of the Cards. Thompson remains in the St. Louis starting rotation out of necessity only as the Cards are simply playing out the string at this point. The right-hander checks in sporting a 4.72 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in eight appearances this season. He just faced the Brewers last week, allowing four earned runs including two home runs in five innings. Note that Thompson has topped out at six strikeouts in his last seven starts. Wade Miley threw six shutout innings in a 6-0 victory over the Cards last week. In fact, Milwaukee has won each of his last three and five of his last six starts overall. Note that Miley owns a 3.08 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 12 nighttime starts this season. While his career numbers against the Cards aren't eye-popping, he has handled their current lineup. St. Louis hitters have gone 18-for-63 (.286) off the left-hander with five extra-base hits. Keep in mind, Paul Goldschmidt is 10-for-20 against Miley with a pair of doubles and a pair of home runs. The problem for Goldy right now is, it's just not that difficult to pitch around him given the current state of the St. Louis lineup (Nolan Arenado headlines the list of players on the I.L.). Sporting one of the best bullpens in baseball, the Brew Crew should have a significant edge in the latter innings on Tuesday. Milwaukee relievers have not only been effective, but haven't been overworked either, logging a collective 538 2/3 innings on the campaign (entering last night's action). The Brewers 'pen entered this series having recorded a collective 1.93 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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09-26-23 | Padres -118 v. Giants | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Padres dropped a heart-breaker and spoiled another win for likely N.L. Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell in the opener of this series last night. San Diego couldn't get anything going offensively after plating a run in the first inning against Giants ace Logan Webb. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as they face San Francisco rookie Kyle Harrison. While Harrison undoubtedly has a bright MLB future, he's been going through it since his late-August call-up. Harrison checks in having allowed 14 earned runs in just 20 innings of work over his last four starts. This will be his second career start against the Padres after getting lit up to the tune of six earned runs in 5 2/3 innings back on September 2nd. Behind Harrison is a struggling Giants bullpen that entered last night's contest sporting an ERA well north of six over the last seven games. The good news is they weren't pressed into duty thanks to Logan Webb's complete game performance. The bad news is, they do figure to play a prominent role on Tuesday, noting that Harrison has lasted six innings just once in six career outings. Seth Lugo will take the ball for San Diego. He has quietly been the Padres most consistent starter outside of Snell, working at least six innings in 11 of his last 15 starts. In nine outings against N.L. West opponents this season he has logged a 3.16 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He should be happy to be facing the Giants here, noting that he has posted a 3.08 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in four career starts against them. Like the Giants, the Padres didn't need to use many bullpen resources last night and unfortunately it was to their detriment leaving Robert Suarez in the game for the final 1 1/3 innings. All told, Padres relievers have worked around 120 innings fewer than the Giants relief corps this season. Take San Diego (10*). |
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09-26-23 | Reds v. Guardians -102 | 11-7 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Cincinnati at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the Reds after they snapped their losing streak with a victory over the Pirates on Sunday. Now they follow up an off day on Monday with a short trip to Cleveland to face a Guardians club that is essentially playing with 'house money', albeit not in a positive way, as they play out the string at the end of a disappointing campaign. Guardians starter Lucas Giolito has bounced around more than any starter in baseball this season so he'll be looking to audition for next season in what is likely his last start of the year on Tuesday. His results have been mixed since joining Cleveland but he is just one start removed from striking out 12 batters over seven shutout innings against Texas so we know what he's capable of. Reds starter Hunter Greene has had an up-and-down campaign as well. He's the pitcher that falls into the letdown spot here after striking out 14 batters against the Twins in his most recent turn in the starting rotation. Note that Cincinnati still lost that game 5-3 as its offense has run dry down the stretch. Of course the Reds 'need this one more' but that should have little bearing on the end result on Tuesday. I like the Guardians chances of playing spoiler against their cross-state rival. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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09-25-23 | Padres -116 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. While it's a case of too little, too late, the Padres have undoubtedly played their best baseball down the stretch. Monday's starter, Blake Snell, has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers, logging a 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. As usual, command has been an issue and as a result Snell's FIP has remained relatively high at 3.48. Here, he'll face a Giants club that doesn't walk at an abnormally high rate but does strike out a ton. Snell should be happy to be facing San Francisco, noting that he owns a career 1.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in eight starts against it. The Giants will hand the ball to their ace Logan Webb. Note that he'll be making his second consecutive start on short rest (four days) and looks like a pitcher that's running out of gas a bit having worked north of 200 innings on the season. Webb has topped out at six strikeouts over his last four starts, reaching just four in three of those outings. Speaking of overworked, the Giants bullpen has logged just shy of 700 total innings this season. Entering last night's contest, San Francisco relievers had combined to post a 7.60 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over the last seven games. Take San Diego (8*). |
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09-24-23 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. While I do like the Mets to avoid the sweep in Sunday's series finale in Philadelphia, I think they're going to have a hard time holding down the Phillies offense. New York starter Jose Butto has only faced the Phillies once previously but made quite an impression, and not in a good way. Current Phillies hitters are a combined 7-for-13 off of him. Alec Bohm is a perfect 3-for-3 with a pair of home runs. Behind Butto is a worn out Mets bullpen that hasn't had a day off since September 7th. It's a similar story for Philadelphia's relief corps as the Phils haven't been idle since September 7th either. Christopher Sanchez will get the start for Philadelphia. Mets hitters have gone 8-for-23 off of him with three extra-base hits. He checks in having allowed seven earned runs over his last two outings, covering a span of just 11 1/3 innings. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-23 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Dodgers here as they send Clayton Kershaw to the hill against the Giants on Saturday. Kershaw will be happy to be facing rival San Francisco, noting that he owns a career 2.01 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 55 outings against the Giants. His last four starts against them have resulted in Dodgers victories by scores of 7-4, 5-3, 7-3 and most recent 10-5 back on April 12th. Off a one-run performance last night, this is an ideal rebound spot for Los Angeles, noting that it still averages 5.3 runs per game at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.4 runs. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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Sean Murphy MLB Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-28-24 | Diamondbacks v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
04-27-24 | Yankees v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 15-3 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
04-26-24 | Guardians v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
04-26-24 | Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
04-25-24 | Phillies v. Reds UNDER 8 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
04-25-24 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 7 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
04-24-24 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
04-24-24 | Astros v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
04-23-24 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
04-22-24 | Blue Jays v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 109 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
04-21-24 | Red Sox v. Pirates -140 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -140 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
04-20-24 | Rangers +140 v. Braves | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
04-20-24 | A's v. Guardians -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 125 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
04-20-24 | Mets v. Dodgers -1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
04-19-24 | Rays +140 v. Yankees | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
04-19-24 | White Sox +148 v. Phillies | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
04-18-24 | Diamondbacks +150 v. Giants | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
04-18-24 | Rangers v. Tigers +100 | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
04-17-24 | Rockies +195 v. Phillies | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
04-17-24 | Cardinals v. A's +145 | 3-6 | Win | 145 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
04-17-24 | Nationals +226 v. Dodgers | 2-0 | Win | 226 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
04-17-24 | Yankees -1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-4 | Win | 155 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
04-17-24 | Twins -1.5 v. Orioles | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
04-16-24 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 11-12 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
04-16-24 | Braves -1.5 v. Astros | 6-2 | Win | 140 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
04-16-24 | Pirates +120 v. Mets | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
04-16-24 | Rockies +210 v. Phillies | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
04-15-24 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -136 | 3-2 | Loss | -136 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
04-15-24 | Rangers v. Tigers +110 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
04-15-24 | Rockies v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
04-15-24 | Giants -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
04-15-24 | Guardians v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
04-14-24 | Nationals v. A's OVER 8.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
04-13-24 | Cubs -1.5 v. Mariners | 4-1 | Win | 125 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
04-13-24 | Giants v. Rays -105 | 11-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
04-13-24 | Rockies v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
04-12-24 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -116 | 9-6 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
04-12-24 | Cubs +105 v. Mariners | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
04-12-24 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
04-11-24 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | 9-4 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
04-11-24 | Orioles v. Red Sox +112 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
04-10-24 | A's v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 112 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
04-10-24 | Nationals v. Giants -1.5 | 1-7 | Win | 107 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
04-10-24 | Dodgers v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
04-09-24 | Astros v. Royals +114 | 3-4 | Win | 114 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
04-09-24 | Marlins +169 v. Yankees | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
04-09-24 | Orioles -136 v. Red Sox | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
04-08-24 | Rays -135 v. Angels | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
04-08-24 | Marlins +145 v. Yankees | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
04-07-24 | Padres v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
04-07-24 | Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
04-06-24 | Mets v. Reds -115 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
04-06-24 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 8 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
04-05-24 | Mariners v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 5-6 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
04-05-24 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
04-04-24 | White Sox v. Royals -1.5 | 1-10 | Win | 126 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
04-03-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
04-03-24 | Pirates -151 v. Nationals | 3-5 | Loss | -151 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
04-03-24 | Reds v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
04-03-24 | Angels v. Marlins -114 | 10-2 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
04-02-24 | Giants +130 v. Dodgers | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
04-02-24 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks -111 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
04-02-24 | Rockies v. Cubs -1.5 | 2-12 | Win | 115 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
04-02-24 | Angels v. Marlins -140 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
04-02-24 | Twins v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
04-01-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
04-01-24 | Braves -1.5 v. White Sox | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
03-31-24 | Red Sox +134 v. Mariners | 5-1 | Win | 134 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
03-30-24 | Yankees v. Astros -128 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
03-29-24 | Blue Jays v. Rays -113 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
11-01-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
10-31-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
10-30-23 | Rangers -104 v. Diamondbacks | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
10-24-23 | Diamondbacks +158 v. Phillies | 4-2 | Win | 158 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
10-23-23 | Rangers +114 v. Astros | Top | 11-4 | Win | 114 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
10-20-23 | Phillies -124 v. Diamondbacks | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
10-19-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks +117 | 1-2 | Win | 117 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
10-18-23 | Astros +121 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 121 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
10-17-23 | Diamondbacks +149 v. Phillies | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10-16-23 | Rangers v. Astros -118 | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
10-11-23 | Dodgers -140 v. Diamondbacks | 2-4 | Loss | -140 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
10-10-23 | Astros v. Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -149 | 4-2 | Loss | -149 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
10-09-23 | Phillies v. Braves -149 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves -195 | 3-0 | Loss | -195 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
10-04-23 | Rangers v. Rays OVER 8 | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
10-03-23 | Rangers v. Rays -146 | 4-0 | Loss | -146 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
09-30-23 | Dodgers -160 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
09-30-23 | Red Sox v. Orioles -130 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
09-29-23 | Cubs -111 v. Brewers | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
09-28-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
09-27-23 | Padres -105 v. Giants | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show | |
09-27-23 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
09-27-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
09-26-23 | Padres -118 v. Giants | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
09-26-23 | Reds v. Guardians -102 | 11-7 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
09-25-23 | Padres -116 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
09-24-23 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
09-23-23 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |