Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-21-20 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Kansas City on Friday night as we have an underrated pitching matchup between Jake Odorizzi and Danny Duffy. It may come as a surprise that Odorizzi was a 15-game winner a year ago, earning a spot in the A.L. All-Star team. He's had a bit of tough luck so far this season, giving up far more home runs than usual but his strikeouts per nine innings are up and his walks are down compared to his career year in 2019. He handled the Royals in a seven-inning double-header game last week and should find some success again here. Duffy has been a middle of the road pitcher over the course of his career but has shown signs of breaking out so far this season. His strikeouts have climbed to a career-high 10.4 per nine innings while his walks are a respectable 2.6 per nine innings. He has also given up a career-best 5.9 hits per nine innings. Take the under (10*). |
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08-21-20 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 2-11 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Phillies are coming off a wild double-header sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays yesterday, which included blowing a 7-0 lead in Game 2. Here, I look for a lower-scoring affair as we have an excellent pitching matchup between Aaron Nola and Max Fried. Nola is having a career-year (even though it's early). His strikeouts per nine innings are way up, hitting 12.6 while his walks are down to a career low 1.4 per nine innings. He's also giving up fewer home runs and just north of four hits per nine innings. After struggling with his command in his first two big league seasons, Max Fried has seemingly got it under control since last year. Through five starts this season he has posted an impressive 1.24 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly while his walks are up a shade, but he has yet to allow a home run in 29 innings and is giving up just 5.3 hits per nine innings. Take the under (10*). |
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08-20-20 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' on Thursday as the Reds and Cardinals match up in what has the potential to be a pitcher's duel. Sonny Gray will take the ball for Cincinnati. He's arguably been the best pitcher in baseball this season, building off what was a terrific 2019 campaign. Keep in mind, he was an All-Star and finished seventh in N.L. Cy Young voting last season. So far this year, Gray's strikeouts per nine innings are up significantly while his walks are down. He's also allowing a career-low hits per nine innings. While we're certainly dealing with a small sample size, Cards veteran starter Adam Wainwright is off to a solid start as well. His strikeouts are down to 6.5 per nine innings but he's done an excellent job of limiting good contact, having yet to give up a home run and a career-low 4.1 hits per nine innings. Note that the Reds entered last night's action sitting tied for 19th in runs per game and 25th in team batting average. Take the under (10*). |
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08-19-20 | Astros v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | 13-6 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll go the contrarian route once again and back the 'under' as the Astros and Rockies shift their series to Coors Field on Wednesday night. Framber Valdez will take the ball for Houston. He's off to a terrific start in his third big league season. Valdez has seen his strikeouts per nine innings go up while his walks per nine innings have dropped significantly. He's also giving up fewer hits and home runs. Meanwhile, Rockies rookie Ryan Castellani has pitched well in limited action so far this season, allowing just two hits and one earned run in 8 2/3 innings of work. We won with the 'under' in his most recent start, a 3-2 loss to the Rangers last week. While the Astros did enter yesterday's action ranking tied for eighth in baseball in runs per game, they were just 17th in batting average and 22nd in slugging percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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08-18-20 | A's v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Arizona at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' as the A's and D'Backs do battle in a late afternoon affair on Tuesday. Frankie Montas will take the ball for Oakland. While he has posted a 1.57 ERA through four starts this season his strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up compared to the last two seasons. He's yet to give up a single home run but that's obviously not a sustainable trend. Luke Weaver will counter for Arizona. He has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, allowing north of 14 hits per nine innings, not to mention a ridiculous 4.6 home runs. While Weaver's strikeouts are up, so are his walks issued. Needless to say he's going to face a tough challenge in the hot hitting A's on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-20 | A's v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. |
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08-17-20 | Giants v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair between the Giants and Angels on Monday night in Anaheim. Tyler Anderson will take the ball for San Francisco. He has yet to make it more than five innings in any of his three starts this season. Note that Anderson's strikeouts per nine innings are way down from his previous work with the Rockies while his walks per nine innings are up significantly to nearly six. He'll have his hands full with the Angels lineup on Monday. Griffin Canning counters for Los Angeles. He didn't have a banner rookie campaign a year ago and has struggled again in early season action here in 2020. Like Anderson, Canning's strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up. He's also allowing two home runs per nine innings. Off a tough weekend series against the red hot A's, look for the Giants to do some damage at the plate tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-20 | Padres v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 14-4 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
**NO PLAY DUE TO PITCHING CHANGE** My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Texas at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Rangers entered Sunday's action ranking 29th in baseball in runs per game but ninth in runs allowed per contest. Expect another low-scoring game featuring the Rangers here as they send Mike Minor to the hill against Zach Davies. Minor's overall numbers aren't great but it's worth noting his strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly while his home runs and hits allowed per nine innings are down compared to last year as well. He needs to work on his command but I do think that will turn around. Davies has been terrific for the Padres, posting a career high in strikeouts per innings and a career low walks per nine innings in the early going. Take the under (10*). |
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08-15-20 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 2-6 | Win | 105 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. Unlike last night when we saw two back of the rotation starters go head-to-head in the opener of this series, I expect to see a much more impressive pitching matchup on Saturday night as the Mets send Steven Matz to the hill against the Phillies Aaron Nola. Matz' overall numbers so far this season are awful as he has gone 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Keep in mind, he did allow just four earned runs over 11 1/3 innings of work in his first two starts before getting lit up over his last two outings. Remember, Matz finished sixth in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting back in 2016 and save for a poor 2017 campaign has generally pitched well at this level. Even this year he has slightly increased his strikeouts per nine innings while reducing his walks per nine innings considerably over last season. Aaron Nola has been the Phillies ace so far, posting a 2.79 ERA and incredible 0.62 WHIP through three starts. He's striking out a whopping 13.5 batters per nine innings while issuing just 0.9 walks. Just two years ago he finished third in N.L. Cy Young voting and even reached the MVP ballot. Take the under (10*). |
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08-14-20 | Rangers v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. I'll take the contrarian route and back the 'under' as the Rangers and Rockies open up their series in Denver on Friday night. The Rangers aren't the offensive powerhouse they once were. While they did plate seven runs in a win over the Mariners two nights ago, they've scored more than seven runs in a game on only one occasion this season and rank tied for 28th in the majors in runs scored per game at 3.6. Somewhat surprisingly, they find themselves in the top half of the majors in fewest runs allowed per game. Rockies rookie Ryan Castellani made his big league debut on August 8th, not allowing a single hit while striking out three and walking one over four innings. Veteran Lance Lynn takes the ball for the Rangers. He's been more than serviceable over the last couple of seasons and is off to an alright start this year as well. While he's issued a lot more walks than I would like, I do expect him to pitch reasonably well here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-14-20 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Expect plenty of runners on base and ultimately runs on the board as the Braves and Marlins open their series in Miami on Friday night. Kyle Wright will take the ball for the Braves. He previously had a cup of coffee at the big league level over the last two seasons, making 11 combined appearances in 2018 and 2019. He struggled in those outings and has picked up right where he left off this year, recording a 6.75 ERA and 2.08 WHIP through 12 innings of work. After issuing a whopping 5.9 walks per nine innings in seven appearances last year he's inexplicably been even worse in limited work so far this season, handing out 7.5 walks per nine innings. Pablo Lopez will counter for Miami. His numbers this season are just fine, but he's worked just 10 innings and has a poor track record at the big league level. He posted an ERA north of five in 21 starts last season. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up through two appearances this year, so are his walks. In this matchup of two teams than rank top-10 in baseball in runs per game, I'll back the 'over' on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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08-13-20 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. While both of these offenses are off to terrific starts this season, I'm comfortable playing the 'under' with the oddsmakers hanging out a generous total in Thursday's series finale. Chris Paddack will take the ball for the Padres. Few starters have been more consistent than Paddack in the early going this season as he has already worked 22 2/3 innings, posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly compared to his rookie campaign last year, but so are his walks. In fact, he's handed out only three free passes so far this season. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He has seen the 'over' cash in two of his first three starts but keep in mind, he's been opposed by the likes of Drew Smyly, Luke Weaver and Jeff Samardzija. Here, he's in line for a pitcher's duel with Paddack. Urias had his start pushed back a night as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts tries to manage workload during a 17-game in 17-night stretch. After posting a stellar 2.49 ERA in 37 appearances, mostly as a reliever, last year he's off to another fine start here in 2020, having recorded a 2.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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08-12-20 | Cubs v. Indians UNDER 8 | 7-2 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Wednesday. Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks has put together a rock solid big league career and he's off to another fine start here in 2020. Consistency has been key over the course of Hendricks' seven-year career as he has never posted an ERA north of 3.95 in a season, with that career-high number coming way back in 2015. It's easy to forget that Hendricks was actually third in N.L. Cy Young voting back in 2016. So far this year he has issued just 0.9 walks per nine innings and allowed only eight earned runs on 17 hits through 20 1/3 innings of work. Likewise, Cookie Carrasco has been terrific for the Indians, working exactly six innings in each of his first three outings, allowing just five earned runs on 12 hits. Take the under (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 8 | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks as the Cubs and Indians do battle in a 2016 World Series rematch on Tuesday. Jon Lester is off to a tremendous start for the Cubs this season, perhaps turning back the hands of time after struggling last year. I'm not sure his success is sustainable. He's not missing a lot of bats and faces a tough Indians lineup here on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Adam Plutko is nothing more than a stop-gap for Cleveland as it goes through some starting rotation woes. He's been routinely owned by opposing bats over the course of his big league career, struggling as a starter in each of the last two seasons. He has posted a solid 2.57 ERA and 0.86 WHIP so far this season, but that's through just seven innings of work. Take the over (10*). |
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08-11-20 | Royals v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 103 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I had a strong lean to the 'under' in Royals rookie Kris Bubic's most recent start, which ultimately turned out to be a 6-1 loss to the Cubs. Here, I look for plenty of offense as the suddenly surging Royals travel to Cincinnati to face the Reds. Bubic missed plenty of bats against the Cubs last time out but I'm not sure his success is sustainable. He'll be making his first road start of the season. Note that he made one start away from home back in Spring Training and got lit up for four earned runs and couldn't make it out of the second inning against the White Sox. Luis Castillo will counter for the Reds. His strikeout numbers are up so far this season but he has also been hit hard, allowing 18 hits and nine earned runs in 17 innings of work. After issuing just 2.6 walks per nine innings in 2018, Castillo handed out 3.7 last year and that number is up over three again so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-10-20 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The A's are off to a terrific start this season, currently running away with the A.L. West division lead. They've been doing it with solid pitching, sitting in a tie for third in baseball in runs allowed per game. They rank just 23rd in the majors in both batting average and slugging percentage and I'm not convinced they'll rack up a ton of runs in the opener of this series in Anaheim. Julio Teheran will take the ball for the Angels. He struggled in his debut with his new club but is certainly capable of bouncing back here, noting that he has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last two seasons as a member of the Braves. Like Teheran, A's starter Sean Manaea is also off to a tough start this season, albeit with a larger sample size. It is worth noting, however, that his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down. Keep in mind, he posted an incredible 1.21 ERA in just five starts last season. Two years ago he made 27 starts for the A's and recorded a solid 3.59 ERA. The Angels check in 24th in baseball in batting average and 17th in slugging percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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08-09-20 | Rockies v. Mariners OVER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. Off a low-scoring contest last night I look for a little more offense in Sunday's series finale between the Rockies and Mariners in Seattle. German Marquez is off to a stellar start this season having posted a 1.89 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in 19 innings of work but I'm not sure those numbers are sustainable. The Mariners know they'll need to get something done at the dish if they're going to contend with the hot hitting Rockies here today. That's especially true when you consider they'll hand the ball to rookie Justus Sheffield, who has really struggled, posting a 9.39 ERA and 1.83 WHIP, lasting only 7 2/3 innings so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-06-20 | Brewers v. White Sox OVER 9 | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a pitching duel in this matchup last night as the Brewers prevailed by a 1-0 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Thursday, however. Josh Lindblom will take the ball for Milwaukee. He labored through this first start this season and I expect more of the same here. Note that he has made more than a single start in a season only once in his career, that coming back in 2013 when he made five starts for the Rangers, ultimately posting a 5.46 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in eight appearances that year. Gio Gonzalez will counter for the White Sox. He's coming off a fine outing but there's no question he's on the downside of his career arc, managing only 23 starts since 2018 due to injuries and otherwise. He has yet to last through the fourth inning in two starts so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-02-20 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under‘ between Cleveland and Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. Travel day on Sunday. Full analysis will return on Monday. |
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07-30-20 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 7:07 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Shane Bieber's season debut against the Royals last week - a no sweat ticket from start to finish - and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Bieber remains one of the most underrated and undervalued starters in baseball as far as I'm concerned. He picked up right where he left off following a tremendous 2019 campaign, tossing six shutout innings while striking out 14 last Friday night against the Royals. Jose Berrios didn't get off to the start he had hoped for, as he was rocked by the White Sox in his season debut. I do expect a better showing from the right-hander here as he returns home to the friendly confines of Target Field. Since a shaky rookie campaign in 2016, Berrios has been terrific at the big league level - last season posting a 3.68 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in over 200 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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07-29-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Texas at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a well-pitched game between the D'Backs and Rangers on Wednesday afternoon as two veteran starters go head-to-head at Globe Life Park. Madison Bumgarner will take the ball for the Giants. Despite posting the highest ERA of his career, Bumgarner matched his career-high in games started and exceeded his career-high in strikeouts per nine innings while also recording a career-low in walks per nine innings last season. He didn't get off to the start he hoped for with the D'Backs in his 2020 debut, allowing three earned runs while striking out only four and walking three in 5 2/3 innings of work last week. Look for a solid bounce-back performance from the veteran left-hander here. Lance Lynn will counter for the Rangers. Despite pitching for three different teams over the last three seasons he has seemingly gotten better with each passing year. He actually finished fifth in A.L. Cy Young voting last season, posting a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while recording a career-high 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. In his 2020 debut he tossed six innings of two-hit shutout ball against the Rockies last week. Take the under (10*). |
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07-28-20 | Braves v. Rays UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I like the 'under' in this matchup on Tuesday night, after we saw a whopping 19 runs cross home plate in last night's series opener. Kyle Wright has struggled in 11 career big league appearances for the Braves over the last two seasons but I expect to see him settle down after locking down the fifth spot in the Atlanta rotation with Cole Hamels still on the shelf. Wright rounded into form during Summer Camp and draws a reasonable matchup here catching the Rays off a big performance last night. Yonny Chirinos will counter for the Rays. He was late joining the Rays after testing positive for Covid-19 but by all accounts he's back to full health now. Chirinos is starting his third big league season after pitching well in both 2018 and 2019. Last season he allowed just 112 hits and posted a 114:28 strikeout to walk ratio in 133 1/3 innings of work. The Braves have been quite inconsistent at the plate in the early going this season with young slugger Ronald Acuna Jr. in particular struggling out of the gate. Take the under (10*). |
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07-27-20 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | 5-8 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two clubs on Sunday afternoon but I expect a different story to unfold on Monday. Kendall Graveman wowed the Mariners staff during Summer Camp and I look for him to hold his own against the mighty Astros in this matchup. A fresh start with a new team might be just what the doctor ordered for Graveman after he struggled in limited work with the A's last season. Note that he has seen his strikeout per nine innings increase over each of the last three seasons. Josh James served as a reliever for the Astros last season but is pressed into starting duty as the 2020 campaign gets underway. James is a hard-throwing strikeout pitcher that should find some success against a relatively inexperienced Mariners batting order. If James can figure out his command issues he could be a force at the back of the Astros rotation. Take the under (10*). |
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07-26-20 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 9.5 | 14-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and New York at 7:08 pm et on Sunday. Neither offense has come roaring out of the gates, which is probably to be expected. I believe we're dealing with a slightly higher total than we should be in Sunday night's series finale. Sean Newcomb will make the start for the Braves. After making 49 starts in 2017 and 2018 only four of his 55 appearances last year were starts. He has managed to lower his walks per nine innings total in each of his first three seasons. He still puts too many runners on base in general but I do think he's catching the Mets at the right time as they continue to shake off the rust at the dish. Rick Porcello gets the nod for the Mets, making his team debut. Like Newcomb, he tends to put too many runners on base but continues to be serviceable in the latter stages of his lengthy big league career. While the Braves offense has a ton of upside, we haven't seen it through the first two days of the season and I'm confident the veteran Porcello can navigate this lineup on Sunday night. Take the under (10*). |
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07-24-20 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 84 h 31 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair on Friday night at Progressive Field. While I'm not particularly high on Royals starter Danny Duffy, there's no question he's a 'serviceable' left-handed big league starter, and capable of keeping the Indians bats at bay here in the 2020 opener. The Indians really didn't do a lot to improve their order during the offseason and as will likely be a theme here early on, I expect the pitchers to be slightly ahead of the hitters in this odd July start to the campaign. Note that Duffy lasted at least six innings in both starts against Cleveland last season. Shane Bieber is the Indians undisputed ace, and would be an ace on most big league staffs to be honest. While he's still relatively early in his career, Bieber remains one of the more underrated starters in the bigs as far as I'm concerned. Bieber incredibly enters this campaign having worked at least into the sixth inning in 20 consecutive starts - a streak I look for him to continue here against the Royals. Kansas City does have some upside at the dish but once again, I'll take the pitchers over the hitters here in late July. Take the under (10*). |
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09-03-19 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 106 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. Ideal hitting conditions along with a subpar pitching matchup lead us to a play on the 'over' at Kauffman Stadium on Tuesday night. Daniel Norris takes the ball for Detroit. It hasn't been a banner year for Norris as he checks in with a 4.66 ERA and 1.38 WHIP despite his solid 111:36 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Royals are suddenly hitting, having plated 29 runs in their last five games. Mike Montgomery will counter for Kansas City and he has been wildly inconsistent this season. He faces a Tigers club that has scored 21 runs in their last four games. Take the over (10*). |
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09-03-19 | Mariners v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. With ideal hitting conditions weather-wise and a matchup of two veteran starters winding down their careers and not pitching particularly well, I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field. Felix Hernandez will take the ball for Seattle. He has made two starts since returning from injury, giving up eight hits and five earned runs, including three home runs, in only 10 2/3 innings of work. He sports an ERA north of six and a 1.42 WHIP in limited action this season. Jon Lester counters for Chicago. He owns a 4.36 ERA and 1.44 WHIP and comes into this one in wildly inconsistent form having allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last six starts. Mixed in that stretch was a home start against Oakland in which he gave up 10 hits and 11 runs, nine of them earned, over just four innings right here at home. Count on plenty of offensive fireworks on Tuesday night in the Windy City. Take the over (10*). |
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09-03-19 | Giants v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in this matchup yesterday afternoon but that had everything to do with the situation as the Cards were back home following rare back-to-back double-headers on the weekend, not to mention the Giants traveling after playing at home on Sunday afternoon. Here, the conditions are ripe for a slugfest as San Francisco sends Dereck Rodriguez and his 5.49 ERA and 1.44 WHIP against Jack Flaherty who is on a red hot run, but one that I don't believe is sustainable. Take the over (10*). |
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09-03-19 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 9.5 | 6-5 | Win | 101 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Indians offense came to life in an 11-3 win over the White Sox last night and I'm confident they'll keep it going against Dylan Cease and his 6.92 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on Tuesday. Chicago will be in tough against Mike Clevinger, who has admittedly been pitching well lately, although I will point out that the Indians right-hander has lasted at least six innings only once in his last four starts. Chicago has plated over four runs per game over its last five contests and getting into that range should prove more than enough for our 'over' play on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-02-19 | Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Monday. We have a couple of things working in our favor here, even if the pitching matchup isn't first-rate. First of all, the early start helps, especially with the Cardinals off back-to-back double-headers against the Reds over the weekend. We've seen the St. Louis bats cool off a bit after a red hot run, averaging under four runs per contest over its last six games. The Giants travel from San Fran after suffering an 8-4 loss to the Padres yesterday afternoon. Save for an eight-run outburst on Friday night, the Giants offense has been fairly abysmal over the last week or so. Take the under (10*). |
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08-29-19 | A's v. Royals OVER 10 | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Kansas City at 1:15 pm et on Thursday. With first pitch only a few hours ago I'll keep my analysis of this play short. We have a low-rate pitching matchup with Chris Bassitt going up against Glenn Sparkman and ideal weather conditions to support the bats at Kauffman Stadium on Thursday afternoon. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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08-27-19 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This series produced a 1-1-1 o/u mark just last week in Minnesota but we did cash the lone 'over' result - a game that produced a whopping 18 runs. Michael Pineda was on the hill for the Twins in that game and he'll take the ball for them again tonight. Note that his 11 road starts have averaged just shy of 11 total runs per game this season. The White Sox will be getting their fourth look at Pineda this season and had their best game against him last week, plating four earned runs in seven innings in that aforementioned 14-4 loss. Lucas Giolito tossed a rare complete game shutout against the Twins last week. There's really not a lot negative I can write about the White Sox ace. I will point out, however, that the Twins will be seeing him for the fourth time since June 30th and have had some previous success against him. The last time they faced him here in Chicago they racked up seven earned runs in five innings in a 10-3 victory. Minnesota also scored seven earned runs off of Giolito in his final start against them last season. Note that the Twins average well north of six runs per game on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-27-19 | Cubs v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Neither of these teams are scoring with a great deal of consistency right now and I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair on Tuesday night at Citi Field. Yu Darvish will take the ball for the Cubs. He labored through his last start, allowing six earned runs but has still worked at least into the sixth inning in eight of his last nine outings overall. He has been at his best on the road this season where he has posted a 3.75 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Marcus Stroman will counter for New York. After allowing seven earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in his first two starts with the Mets, he has bounced back giving up just three earned runs in his last two outings, spanning 9 1/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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08-26-19 | Pirates v. Phillies UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' here as we have a better pitching matchup than most are giving credit for. Joe Musgrove has had an up and down season for the Pirates but did hold the Phillies to just two hits over six shutout innings back on July 20th. He has actually been a better pitcher on the road this season, where he has posted a 4.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Meanwhile, Phillies starter Jason Vargas has recorded a stellar 2.95 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at home. His home starts are averaging just 7.45 total runs. Take the under (10*). |
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08-25-19 | Rays v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tampa Bay and Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. With the Rays struggling to score with any consistency right now and the Orioles still one of if not the worst team in baseball I’ll back the ‘under’ in Sunday’s series finale. We’ve picked on O’s starter Dylan Buddy a lot this season but whole his overall numbers are awful, he has pitched better and more consistently of late. He has given up two earned runs or less in five of his last eight stars. The Rays will go with Diego Castillo as their ‘opener’ on Sunday and that suits our purposes just fine against the light-hitting O’s. Take the under (10*). |
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08-24-19 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 10.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring contest between these two teams last night with the Tigers pulling out an improbable 9-6 win. I expect another offensive onslaught on Saturday evening at Target Field. Edwin Jackson takes the ball for the Tigers. He's at the tail-end of his career and really not able to get out big league hitters consistently at this point. Last time out he gave up five runs, four of them earned, on seven hits while walking four over five innings against the Astros. I don't see him faring much better here. Kyle Gibson will counter for Minnesota. While he does own a solid 11-6 record this season he has posted a less than impressive 4.40 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. The 'over' has gone 14-9-2 in his 25 starts to date and in his last three outings he has given up 13 earned runs in 16 innings of work. Take the over (10*). |
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08-22-19 | Nationals v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. There are reasons for caution in playing the 'under' at PNC Park on Thursday night. After all, Nats' starter Max Scherzer will be making his first start since July. On the flip side, the Nats' offense has been absolutely on fire and after scoring just a single run in a series-opening loss on Tuesday, bounced back to plate 11 runs last night. With that being said, I believe we're set up well for a relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday night. Scherzer kept his ERA below three since the first week of June and has worked at least seven innings in seven of his last eight starts. Meanwhile, Buccos starter Steven Brault has improved as the season has gone on, bringing his ERA down from north of seven on May 24th to just over four today. Last time out he held a good Cubs lineup to just two hits and one earned run over seven innings. Take the under (10*). |
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08-21-19 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a somewhat surprisingly low-scoring game between these two teams last night but I expect a much different story to unfold on Wednesday. With favorable weather conditions for the hitters and a less than impressive pitching matchup, I'm confident we'll see plenty of offensive fireworks. Drew Smyly will take the ball for the Phillies. Smyly pitched well when he first came over to the Phillies but has since gone in the tank, allowing 14 earned runs and six home runs over his last three starts, spanning just 15 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he'll face a tough challenge in one of the best lineups in baseball on Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Red Sox starter Rick Porcello owns a winning record but has recorded an inflated 5.49 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He benefited from facing a struggling Orioles offense in his last start, but prior to that had given up five earned runs over five innings against the Angels on August 10th. Take the over (10*). |
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08-21-19 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in this matchup last night and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play on Wednesday afternoon. Lucas Giolito will take the ball for Chicago. The last time he faced the Twins he got lit up for seven earned runs. Minnesota will be getting its third look at the right-hander this season. Jake Odorizzi will counter for the Twins. He has lasted six innings only once going all the way back to June 20th. Note that the White Sox have scored 44 runs over their last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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08-20-19 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 4-14 | Win | 106 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I expect to see plenty of runs on the board as the White Sox take on the Twins at Target Field on Tuesday night. Reynaldo Lopez will take the ball for Chicago. Sporting a 5.29 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, needless to say he's not enjoying a good season. Lopez has been lit up for 28 hits and 10 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of 22 1/3 innings of work. Now he faces a Twins lineup that ranks tied for second in baseball in runs scored and all alone in second in hits. Michael Pineda will counter for Minnesota. The last time he faced the White Sox he gave up just two earned runs in seven innings but now they'll be getting their second look at him in less than a month. Note that the White Sox have now scored a whopping 40 runs in their last six games, including a 6-4 victory here last night. Take the over (10*). |
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08-20-19 | Giants v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair and fully expect to see the total bump up a run or so before the end of the day (I still like the over if that move happens). Tyler Beede will take the ball for the Giants. His ERA has risen to its highest point since late June as he has been tagged for a whopping 22 earned runs on 40 hits over just 23 1/3 innings in his last five starts. Things don't figure to get any easier against a good Cubs offense with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. Like Beede, Cubs starter Cole Hamels has also struggled lately, giving up 12 earned runs on 17 hits over his last two starts, spanning just five innings. Keep in mind, those two outings came in hitter's parks in Cincinnati and Philadelphia but with excellent hitting conditions expected tonight, again things won't get any easier. Take the over (10*). |
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08-20-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two clubs last night as the Cardinals won by a 3-0 score. I'm anticipating more in the way of offensive fireworks on Tuesday, however. Gio Gonzalez will take the ball for the Brewers. He's obviously on the down side of his career and his numbers reflect that this season. Gonzalez has failed to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, allowing seven earned runs in 13 innings over that stretch. He's been tagged for four home runs while issuing seven walks over his last two trips to the hill. Michael Wacha will counter for St. Louis. He has recorded an inflated 5.44 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season and hasn't worked beyond the fifth inning since way back on June 28th. In Wacha's last two outings he has given up eight earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*). |
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08-19-19 | Royals v. Orioles OVER 10 | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Balitmore at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair on a hot and humid night at the ballpark in Baltimore with a less than appealing pitching matchup on tap. Jorge Lopez will take the ball for the Royals. His ERA has sat north of six going all the way back to early May. In his last two appearances he has been tagged for six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. There's little reason to expect him to come up with a solid performance here as the Orioles return home off a solid weekend at the plate in Boston. John Means will counter for Baltimore. He got off to a great start this season but has seen his ERA rise from 2.50 on July 3rd to 3.76 today. Over his last three outings he has failed to last a full four innings once, giving up 13 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*). |
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08-16-19 | Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 10 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. We won with the under in the Braves wild 10-8 loss to the Mets last night but I’ll go the other way and back the under tonight. We have a solid pitching matchup with Kenta Maeda going for the Dodgers and Mike Soroka on the hill for the Braves. With weather factors supporting a low-scoring affair I’ll back the under. Take the under (10*). |
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08-15-19 | Mets v. Braves OVER 10 | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. Last night's matchup between these two teams saw just one run scored through the first six innings but still managed to reach a total of 10 thanks to a seven-run seventh. I believe the potential is there for an even higher-scoring affair on a hot and humid night in Atlanta on Thursday. Marcus Stroman will take the ball for the Mets. His excellent stuff will scare away plenty of 'over' bettors but consider that in two starts since joining New York he has given up 16 hits and seven earned runs in just 10 1/3 innings of work. He certainly faces a tough challenge here as the Braves are top seven in baseball in both hits and runs scored. Julio Teheran will counter for Atlanta. He has certainly turned things around following a tough start to the season but isn't close to what I would consider an elite starter. He lasted just five innings in a 6-4 loss to the Reds in his most recent home start. The Mets check in top 10 in the majors in hits and sit in the top half in runs scored as well. Take the over (10*). |
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08-14-19 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night and I anticipate more of the same on Wednesday. Dakota Hudson has labored through his last few starts, failing to work beyond the fourth inning in any of them. However, he is a 10-game winner and prior to that stretch owned an ERA well south of four. I like the bounce-back spot against the lowly Royals here. Brad Keller has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven straight starts for the Royals. He was roughed up in Detroit last time out, ending a streak of three consecutive outings working exactly seven innings. Note that when he last faced the Cards back on May 22nd, he gave up just two earned runs on two hits over seven innings. Take the under (10*). |
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08-14-19 | A's v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 103 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two clubs last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Homer Bailey will take the ball for Oakland. He got roughed up last time out, allowing seven earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings against the Cubs. While Bailey does own a winning record this season, he hasn't pitched well, posting a 5.54 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Likewise, Giants starter Tyler Beede has also struggled, recording a 5.61 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He has given up at least four earned runs in four straight starts, allowing 32 hits in just 19 1/3 innings over that stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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08-13-19 | Astros v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Chicago at 4:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' in the first half of the double-header between the Astros and White Sox on Tuesday afternoon. Zack Greinke will get the call for Houston. He hasn't worked more than six innings in any of his last three starts and most recently gave up five earned runs on seven hits over six frames against the Rockies in his first start as a member of the Astros. White Sox starter Dylan Cease has been pretty awful in limited work for Chicago this season, posting a 6.00 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 33 innings. With the Astros having scored a whopping 87 runs in their last nine games I'm confident saying that Cease is in for a long (or more likely short) day at the ballpark on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-12-19 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 10 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. This is one of the highest totals on the board for a reason as the Reds and Nats do battle on a hot and humid night in Washington. Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani hasn't worked a full six innings in any of his last three starts and has been tagged for seven earned runs in just 10 1/3 innings over his last two outings. Erick Fedde is coming off a solid six-inning effort last time out, but prior to that had given up nine earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings in his last start. He owns a less than impressive 1.42 WHIP and a poor 32:25 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-12-19 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 11 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and New York at 1:05 pm et on Monday. I'll keep my analysis brief in the interest of time as this total was just released this morning. The O's are riding high following a wild, come-from-behind 8-7 win over the Astros yesterday and I look for them to have continued success offensively against James Paxton and the Yankees on a hot and humid afternoon in the Bronx. Meanwhile, the Yankees bats were relatively silent against the Jays over the weekend but should have little trouble bouncing back against Gabriel Ynoa and his 5.57 ERA here. Note that the Yanks just faced Ynoa back on August 5th and he didn't make it through the fifth inning. Take the over (10*). |
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08-11-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. This has been a fairly low-scoring series with the first two games producing just 12 runs but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon. Steven Brault has posted overall solid numbers for the Pirates in some regard, having gone 3-1 with a 4.09 ERA that drops to 3.93 on the road. However, his WHIP stands at 1.50 overall and 1.60 on the road. His starts are averaging over 11 total runs. Brault has faced the Cardinals three times in his career, never lasting a full five innings. Miles Mikolas has pitched well for the Cardinals, particularly of late, but the Pirates will be getting their third look at him since July 15th and I expect them to have some success. Note that Mikolas has been weaker in daytime starts, where he owns a 4.61 ERA. Take the over (10*). |
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08-11-19 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' has gone 6-1 in the Reds last seven games and 5-1-1 in the Cubs last seven contests but I'll go against the trend on Sunday. Jon Lester will take the ball for the Cubs. He has really struggled lately but has recorded a 3.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in daytime starts this season. Lester has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts against Cincinnati. Luis Castillo will counter for the Reds. He has worked at least six innings in six of his last seven starts overall. In his last two outings he has given up just three earned runs while striking out 20 and walking just one in 14 innings. The 'under' has gone a perfect 4-0 in his last four starts against the Cubs. Take the under (10*). |
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08-11-19 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Boston at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We've seen 20 and 16 runs scored in this matchup the last two nights and I expect more of the same on Sunday afternoon. Patrick Sandoval will make his first big league start for the Angels. He has posted an ERA north of six while allowing 84 hits in 60 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level this season. He'll be facing a Red Sox lineup that hits .283 as a team and averages 6.2 runs per game here at home. Andrew Cashner will counter for Boston. He continues to struggle with his new club, having now allowed 24 earned runs in 28 2/3 innings since coming over from Baltimore. Take the over (10*). |
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08-10-19 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 12-4 | Win | 101 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Boston at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in last night's matchup between these two teams - a game that reached 20 runs. I expect another high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Andrew Heaney takes the ball for the Angels. He has lasted six innings just once in his last seven starts. His numbers have been consistently poor across the board, and he has posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over his last three starts. Rick Porcello will counter for the Red Sox. Like Heaney, he has posted an ERA north of five this season. He has given up at least five earned runs in five of his last eight starts overall. Take the over (10*). |
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08-09-19 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' at Target Field on Friday night. Shane Bieber has been outstanding for the Indians but here the Twins will be getting their third look at the right-hander this season. They've reached him for five earned runs in 13 1/3 innings in 2019. All told, the Twins will be facing Bieber for the sixth time since May 31st of last year. Devin Smeltzer will counter for Minnesota. He has pitched well in three spot starts this season, although one of those outings came against the same Indians he'll face tonight, and he gave up five earned runs in 6 1/3 innings in that one. Take the over (10*). |
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08-09-19 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 4-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'm calling for a slugfest in Beantown on Friday night as two less than impressive starters take the mound. Jaime Barria has been awful for the Angels this season, posting an ERA well north of six in 46 2/3 innings of work. He has yet to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his six starts this season. Brian Johnson will counter for Boston. He has pitched just 17 innings, but like Barria, has also recorded an ERA just shy of seven. Johnson has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, allowing 30 hits in 17 frames. Take the over (10*). |
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08-08-19 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 12-5 | Win | 104 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Chicago and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Traveling today. Full writeups will return on Friday. |
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08-07-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Miami and New York at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the over in this matchup last night but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Wednesday afternoon. Jordan Yamamoto will take the call for Miami. He has struggled in his last three starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 14 innings of work. Meanwhile, Mets starter Steven Matz was tagged for five earned runs over 3 2/3 innings in his last start and has posted a 4.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season. With the wind blowing out on a sticky afternoon in Queens, look for plenty of offense. Take the over (10*). |
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08-06-19 | A's v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Oakland and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the over in this matchup last night but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the under on Tuesday night. Two veteran starters will take the ball. Brett Anderson goes for the A’s. He had worked at least six innings in five of his last six starts, allowing three earned runs or less in five of those outings as well. Jon Lester counters for the Cubs. He has gone at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight trips to the hill. With the wind expected to be blowing in, I’ll back the under. Take the under (10*). |
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08-06-19 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas City and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. This series got off to a relatively high-scoring start last night and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. After a solid stretch, Royals starter Jakob Junis has gone back in the tank over his last two outings, allowing 10 earned runs on 16 hits over 13 innings of work. Meanwhile Andrew Cashner has had a tough time since joining the Red Sox, giving up 18 earned runs on 31 hits over just 23 1/3 innings pitched. His last two starts have totalled a whopping 28 runs. Look for the bats to once again prevail on a sticky night in Boston. Take the over (10*). |
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08-06-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Miami and New York at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I’m expecting plenty of offense as the Mets look to build on last night‘s victory which pushed them over the .500 mark for the first time since May. Note the pitching change for the Marlins with Noesi starting in place of Yamomoto. I’ll still play the over following the change as the Mets are playing with plenty of confidence at the dish and should have little trouble getting to the journeyman Hector Noesi, who hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since he was a member of the White Sox back in 2015. Zack Wheeler tossed seven shutout innings for the Mets in his last start but prior to that had been tagged for nine earned runs over two starts, spanning 10 1/3 innings. The Marlins are reeling right now but have still managed to score at least four runs in four of their last six contests and we don’t need a slugfest to cash this ticket given the relatively low total. Take the over (10*). |
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08-05-19 | A's v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Oakland and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We settled for a push with the under as the Cubs completed a sweep of the Brewers yesterday but I’ll go the other way and back the over as they open a series with the A’s on Monday. It was a relatively low scoring series between the Cubs and Brewers but I believe the conditions are right for a slugfest here. Note that A’s starter Chris Bassitt has been far better at home than on the road lately where he has been tagged for 12 earned runs in his last 16 2/3 innings. Kyle Hendricks is enjoying a tremendous campaign for the Cubs but faces a tough challenge against an A’s club that has plated 17 runs during its current three-game winning streak. Take the over (10*). |
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08-05-19 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both the Brewers and Pirates enter this series struggling which would lead many to believe we‘re In for a relatively low-scoring affair on Monday night. I expect a different story to unfold, however. Jordan Lyles will face his former club in the series opener. Lyles hasn’t pitched particularly well here at PNC Park this season, allowing 23 earned runs in his last 23 innings pitched here. Dario Agrazal will counter for the Buccos. His last start totaled just five runs against the Reds but don’t be fooled by that result as Agrazal didn’t get out of the fourth inning in that game. After steady performance in his first handful of big league starts, Agrazal has now given up eight earned runs in just nine frames over his last two outings. Take the over. |
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08-04-19 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. I'll stick with the trends and call for another relatively low-scoring affair between the Brewers and Cubs on Sunday afternoon. Chicago has scored more than four runs just twice over its last 12 games. Likewise, the Brewers have topped out at five runs over their last nine games and haven't scored more than four runs in any of their last six contests. Brewers starter Adrian Houser has gotten better as the season has gone on, allowing just one earned run on three hits over five innings last time out against Oakland. Yu Darvish has worked at least six innings in five straight starts for the Cubs, allowing two earned runs or less in three of his last four outings. Take the under (10*). |
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08-02-19 | Reds v. Braves OVER 9 | 5-2 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The opener of this series was low-scoring as Atlanta cruised to a 4-1 victory. I expect to see a different story unfold on Friday night, however. Alex Wood will take the ball for the Reds. He labored a bit in his first start back from injury, needing 80 pitches to get through 4 2/3 innings against the Rockies. Note that he'll be facing a Braves club that averages 5.5 runs per game at home this season. Kevin Gausman will counter for Atlanta. He's been rocked in two previous starts against the Reds, giving up 13 earned runs on 16 hits over eight innings of work. Gausman has never looked all that comfortable pitching for the Braves this season, posting an ERA just shy of six to go along with a 1.45 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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08-02-19 | White Sox v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The White Sox offense has been dormant lately but I do like them to bounce back against Jason Vargas and the Phillies on Friday night. Vargas will of course be making his first start with his new club. While he had pitched better than expected for the Mets this season I'm not sure he's going to be the savior in the Phils rotation. He's become comfortable pitching in the National League but here will have to face an American League club in his debut with Philadelphia. Ivan Nova will counter for Chicago. He's coming off back-to-back solid outings but prior to that had been lit up for 10 earned runs over a two-start stretch. I'm not expecting Nova to find much success against a Phillies lineup that has produced at least seven runs in three of their last five games. Take the over (10*). |
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07-31-19 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Tampa Bay and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The over has now cashed in five straight games involving the Red Sox and I expect more of the same on another hot and humid night at Fenway Park on Wednesday. There’s no reason to downgrade either offense with Andrew Kittredge starting for the Rays and Rick Porcello going for the Sox. Porcello is coming off a fine outing but has been largely inconsistent this season, posting a 5.55 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He’ll have his work cut out against a Rays offense that has racked up 25 runs over their last three contests. Meanwhile Boston is averaging 10 runs per game over its last five. Take the over (10*). |
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07-30-19 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 10 | 2-4 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair on another hot and humid evening in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. Tyler Beede will take the ball for the Giants. He has labored through the season to be sure, with an ERA approaching five overall and closer to six on the road. His road starts have averaged a total of nearly 11 runs. Journeyman lefty Drew Smyly will counter for Philadelphia. He was sharp in his first start with Philadelphia, but that came against the struggling Pirates. Before coming over he had given up 12 earned runs on 14 hits over 6 1/3 innings of work in his last two starts with the Rangers. The 'under' went 5-2 in seven meetings between these two clubs last season but as the relatively high total indicates, I believe we'll see a different story unfold on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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07-29-19 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 10 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 1 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. |
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07-25-19 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. After a wild, high-scoring series against the Yankees which was almost certainly aided by the hot and humid weather in Minnesota, I fully expect the scoring to settle down as the Twins head to Chicago to take on the White Sox. You would have to go all the way back to May 18th to find the last time Twins starter Jose Berrios gave up more than three earned runs in a start. Since then, he has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight of 10 outings. He has also given up three earned runs or less in five straight starts against Chicago, allowing exactly one earned run in three of those outings. Lucas Giolito is quietly putting together a tremendous campaign for the White Sox. His starts are averaging just over 7.3 total runs. Giolito's three career home starts against Minnesota have totaled 5, 3 and 7 runs. With four of the White Sox last five contests totaling six runs or less, I'm looking for another low-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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07-25-19 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and St. Louis at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday afternoon as the Cards and Pirates close out their four-game series. While St. Louis did bust out offensively last night, it's worth noting that they had scored a grand total of 15 runs over their previous four contests. The Pirates remain in an offensive lull. Entering last night's game they hadn't plated more than five runs in a game since July 7th. Miles Mikolas will take the ball for St. Louis. He owns miserable numbers on the road this season, with an ERA north of seven. However, he has actually pitched well in two of his last three outings away from home and has posted a 3.32 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his last three starts overall. He has allowed just five earned runs in 21 innings of work against the Pirates this season. Mikolas has given up two earned runs or less in six of eight career starts against the Buccos. Joe Musgrove will counter for Pittsburgh. He has posted a solid 1.08 WHIP over his last three outings and a 1.13 WHIP at home this season. He tossed six innings of two-hit shutout ball against the hot-hitting Phillies last time out. Musgrove hasn't fared well against the Cardinals over the course of his career but in his lone home start against them he tossed seven shutout innings. Conditions should favor the pitchers on Thursday with relatively low humidity in the ballpark. Take the under (10*). |
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07-21-19 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Arizona at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' as the Brewers and D'Backs wrap up their four-game series on Sunday afternoon. Brandon Woodruff will take the ball for Milwaukee. He has worked at least six innings in each of his last seven starts. Woodruff has allowed only three earned runs over his last three outings, spanning 20 1/3 innings of work. He actually pitched here once last season, giving up just one hit and two earned runs over five innings. Alex Young counters for the D'Backs. He has been extremely efficient, needing fewer than 80 pitches while working at least five innings in each of his first three starts. Young has allowed just six hits and two earned runs over those three outings, covering a span of 16 1/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-20-19 | Cardinals v. Reds UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 101 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in a wild, high-scoring slugfest last night but I look for a different story to play out on Saturday. While the first two games in this series have gone 'over' the total, the Cards and Reds have actually both trended to the 'under' this season. Miles Mikolas owns some awful road numbers this season but he has actually held his own in two career starts here in Cincinnati, allowing four earned runs over 12 innings. Luis Castillo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and has been particularly sharp here at home, where he has posted a 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. The 'under' is 7-3 in his 10 home starts, with those games averaging just over seven total runs. He has allowed just two earned runs in 18 innings in his last three outings against St. Louis. Take the under (10*). |
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07-18-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in this matchup last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Thursday afternoon. Ross Stripling will take the ball for the Dodgers. In four starts since returning to the rotation he has lasted a full five innings only once but he has also been asked to throw 81 pitches or fewer in all four of those outings. Last time out he allowed just one earned run over five frames in a tough setting in Boston. Aaron Nola will counter for the Phillies. He's been the picture of consistency this season, working at least into the sixth inning in 10 of his last 11 starts. Over his last four outings he has allowed just two earned runs in 27 2/3 innings. Nola owns a stellar 2.74 ERA at home this season. Last night's game ended up approaching the total thanks to some late runs. I still feel we're dealing with a higher number than we should be on Thursday. Take the under (10*). |
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07-17-19 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 10.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals have beaten up on White Sox pitching through the first two games of this series. I'll back the 'under' on Wednesday night as Ivan Nova looks to settle the Kansas City bats. Nova has actually held his own lately, working at least into the sixth inning in four straight and seven of his last eight starts overall. The 'under' is 5-1 in his last six trips to the hill. Danny Duffy will counter for Kansas City. He has worked at least into the seventh inning in three of his last four outings. He hasn't allowed a single earned run in his last two starts against the White Sox, covering a span of 12 2/3 innings of work. Note that Chicago hasn't scored more than three runs over its last seven contests. Take the under (10*). |
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07-17-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Fresh off a couple of high-scoring affairs to open this series I look for the scoring to settle down considerably on Wednesday night. Kenta Maeda will take the ball for the Dodgers. He checks in having worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. The only start in which he didn't make it that far came at Coors Field. The 'under' is 5-1-1 in Maeda's last seven trips to the hill. Nick Pivetta will counter for Philadephia. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. Last time out he lasted only five frames but gave up just three earned runs and that game totaled just four runs. He has allowed only four earned runs in 17 career innings against the Dodgers. Take the under (10*). |
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07-15-19 | Braves v. Brewers UNDER 10 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I like the spot here as the Braves travel from San Diego to face the Brewers on Monday night. They'll be facing an unfamiliar opposing pitcher in Adrian Houser and while he hasn't been great, I do think we'll see him pitch well enough to keep Atlanta off balance here. Braves starter Max Fried has been fairly consistent but comes off a rough outing against the Marlins back on July 6th. Prior to that he had given up three earned runs or less in three straight starts. With the Brewers bats relatively quiet right now, I'm confident in Fried's ability to keep them at bay. Take the under (10*). |
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07-14-19 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | 12-4 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Texas at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams have trended to the 'under' this season but the last two games have been admittedly high-scoring. I do look for a lower-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon. Justin Verlander will take the ball for the Astros. He's obviously one of the game's premier pitchers and has posted a 3.01 ERA and 0.82 WHIP on the road this season. In his last two starts against the Rangers he has allowed just one earned run on four hits over 14 innings of work. Ariel Jurado will take the ball for Texas. He has worked at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts overall. In his lone previous start against the Astros last season, Jurado gave up just two hits and one earned run in six innings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-14-19 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. This has been a relatively low-scoring series so far and there's little reason to expect anything different on Sunday afternoon as we have the best pitching matchup of the series. Jose Berrios has worked at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts for the Twins. He has allowed just one earned run in his last two outings against Cleveland, spanning 13 2/3 innings. Shane Bieber will counter for the Indians. He's of course coming off an All-Star Game MVP performance and has worked at least into the sixth inning in five straight starts (prior to that ASG appearance). Bieber has also worked at least into the sixth frame in all four career starts against Minnesota. Take the under (10*). |
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07-13-19 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 10 | 7-6 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring slugfest between these two teams last night but I look for the scoring to settle down a little bit on Saturday. Wade Miley takes the ball for Houston. He has worked six innings, allowing just one earned run in back-to-back starts. Going back further he has lasted at least six innings in six of his last eight trips to the hill. When he faced the Rangers back in May he allowed only two earned runs over six frames. Mike Minor will counter for Texas. He struggled in his most recent outing but prior to that had worked at least into the sixth inning in five straight starts. In two starts against the Astros this season, Minor has allowed only three earned runs in 12 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-05-19 | Rangers v. Twins UNDER 10 | 6-15 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Target Field on Friday night. The Rangers exploded for nine runs thanks in large part to a pair of home runs and five RBI from Rougned Odor last night. Still, the Rangers haven't been scoring with much consistency lately and I don't think things will get any easier in Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Twins travel back following a west coast trip. Adrian Sampson starts for the Rangers. He's pitched well, working seven and six innings over his last two starts, giving up just four earned runs. He's now worked at least six innings in four of his last six outings. Martin Perez will counter for Minnesota. While he has cooled off after a tremendous start to the season, he is coming off a fine effort last time out, giving up just two earned runs on three hits over seven frames against the Rays. Take the under (10*). |
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07-05-19 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Arizona at 9:10 pm et on Friday. I think the oddsmakers are having a tough time evaluating Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela right now. He got off to a poor start this season but has since rebounded and checks in having worked at least six innings in five of his last seven outings, allowing two earned runs or less six times over that stretch. He just faced the D'Backs here in Arizona on June 18th and allowed only one earned run over 6 2/3 innings. Zack Greinke continues to consistently deliver quality starts for the Snakes, having worked at least six innings in five straight starts. He tossed seven shutout innings against the Giants in his most recent outing. He was roughed up in his last start against the Rocks' but also held them to on earned run, working into the seventh inning, at Coors Field no less back on May 27th. Take the under (10*). |
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07-05-19 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I like the pitching matchup here as Masahiro Tanaka goes up against Brendan McKay who will look to follow up on a brilliant debut. Tanaka is coming off a rough outing in which he lasted only 2/3 of an inning, giving up six earned runs, but that came in that wild two-game set against the Red Sox in London. Prior to that Tanaka had been on point, working at least six innings in nine straight starts. I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. As mentioned, McKay was terrific in his debut, giving up just one hit over six scoreless innings against the Rangers. He'll face another tough challenge here, but I look for him to rise to the occasion. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-19 | Indians v. Royals UNDER 10 | 8-4 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Kansas City at 1:15 pm et on Thursday. The days of blindly fading Homer Bailey are over. He checks in having worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. He was roughed up in his last outing in Toronto but that was in a true hitter's park. I like him to bounce back here against an Indians lineup that isn't exactly tearing the cover off the baseball. Indians starter Zach Plesac is also coming off a rough outing but that also came in a hitter's park at Camden Yards in Baltimore. Prior to that he had worked at least into the sixth inning in all six starts, allowing two earned runs or less in five of those starts. We won with the 'under' at Kauffman Stadium last night and I won't hesitate to make the same play here. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-19 | Brewers v. Reds UNDER 9 | 0-1 | Win | 101 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Cincinnati at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night - a stark contrast from what we witnessed the night previous - as the Reds blanked the Brewers 3-0. I expect more of the same on Thursday as we have a fine pitching matchup between Brandon Woodruff and Luis Castillo. Woodruff has racked up 10 wins already this season and he checks in sporting tremendous form having worked at least seven inning in three of his last four starts and at least six innings in five consecutive starts. He just faced the Reds on June 23rd and gave up only three runs over seven frames. Luis Castillo will counter for Cincinnati. He was terrific against the Cubs last time out, giving up one earned run over seven innings. He has now worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six starts. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-19 | Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 10 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Washington at 11:05 am et on Thursday. I simply feel this total is too high with two starters bringing solid form to the table on Thursday morning. Elieser Hernandez has quietly been pitching well since joining the rotation in June. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in three of four starts, allowing three earned runs or less each time out. When he faced the Nationals last season he gave up just two earned runs over five frames, needing only 73 pitches to get through that outing. Veteran Anibal Sanchez will counter for Washington. He has lasted at least into the sixth inning in six straight starts. You would have to go back eight starts to find the last time he allowed more hits than innings pitched in a start. He also hasn't walked more than one batter since that start back on May 10th. Take the under (10*). |
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07-03-19 | Giants v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and San Diego at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. After back-to-back high-scoring affairs to open this series, I'll back the 'under' on Wednesday night at Petco Park. Shaun Anderson has quietly turned in quality start after quality start, working at least into the sixth inning in six straight starts, giving up three earned runs or less in all six of those outings. Meanwhile, Cal Quantrill has been working out of the bullpen for the Padres lately, after struggling a bit as a starter. In those 5 2/3 innings of work out of the 'pen, Quantrill allowed just four hits and one earned run. The Giants have racked up a ton of runs over their last three games but they're still hitting just .232 as a team on the road this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-03-19 | Indians v. Royals UNDER 9 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. I'll take a flyer on Indians starter Mike Clevinger against the lowly Royals on Wednesday. Clevinger has struggled since returning to the rotation, most recently failing to go even two innings against the Orioles. Keep in mind, he was dominant in his first two starts of the season back in April, before hitting the I.L. This is a good bounce-back spot against the Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Royals starter Danny Duffy has worked at least into the seventh inning in three of his last four starts, giving up just 12 earned runs over 26 2/3 innings during the stretch. The Indians busted out for nine runs last night but prior to that they had been held to just two runs over a three-game stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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06-27-19 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 10:07 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Anaheim on Thursday night as two young starters go head-to-head. The 'under' has cashed in all three of A's starter Tanner Anderson's outings this season. After working into the sixth inning in his first two starts he lasted just four innings last time out, but didn't really get stretched out as he threw only 76 pitches. He has yet to throw more than 93 pitches in a start this season. Griffin Canning has worked at least into the sixth inning in five straight starts for the Angels. Note that he has thrown 93 pitches or fewer in each of his last three outings. The 'under' has gone 7-2-1 in his last 10 starts. Take the under (10*). |
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06-27-19 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 8-5 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a pretty low posted total here but I actually feel it could be even lower. To say that Stephen Strasburg has dominated the Marlins here in Miami over the years would be a massive understatement. In his last five starts here he has allowed a grand total of two earned runs in 33 innings of work. He owns a 2.92 ERA and 0.99 WHIP on the road this season. Meanwhile, runs have been awfully hard to come by in Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara's outings. His last eight starts have seen run totals of 5, 3, 5, 4, 11, 5, 9 and 3 with the 'under' going 6-2 during that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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06-27-19 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. One thing we know about Mets starter Zack Wheeler is he gets his team involved in some serious slugfests. Here are the run totals in his last nine starts: 13, 13, 11, 7, 9, 10, 17, 15 and 12. Two of his last four starts here in Philadelphia have totaled 13 runs as well. The story hasn't been much different for Phillies starter Aaron Nola. The run totals in his last six outings have been 16, 15, 10, 7, 11 and 3. We've already seen 41 total runs through the first three games in this series. Expect more of the same on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
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06-26-19 | Rays v. Twins UNDER 9 | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Target Field on Wednesday night. Charlie Morton will look to stop the bleeding for the Rays. He has worked at least six innings in six straight starts, giving up two earned runs or less in five of those outings. Morton gave up just four hits and two earned runs in seven innings in his last start against the Twins late last month. Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for the Twins. He owns a stellar 1.91 ERA and 0.90 WHIP at home this season. He tossed six shutout innings against the Rays earlier this month. Odorizzi checks in having worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-19 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two clubs last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon. Jakob Junis will take the ball for the Royals. He has worked at least six innings in five of his last seven starts and has given up just six earned runs over his last three outings, spanning 16 2/3 innings. He has at least worked into the sixth inning in all six career starts against the Indians. Trevor Bauer will counter for Cleveland. He's coming off a miserable outing against the Tigers but I like the bounce-back spot here, noting he had worked at least six innings in six consecutive starts prior to that, including allowing two earned runs or less in four of his last five outings. The last time he faced the Royals he gave up just one earned run over 7 2/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-23-19 | Angels v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 6-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and St. Louis at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in St. Louis on Sunday evening as the Angels and Cardinals wrap up their three-game interleague series. The Angels offense has gone cold over the last few games, plating a grand total of just eight runs while losing all three contests. Things don't figure to get much better on Sunday, noting that they've produced just 3.25 runs per game with Tyler Skaggs on the mound this season. Skaggs checks in off back-to-back solid outings, allowing only 10 hits and four earned runs over 12 1/3 innings against the Rays and Blue Jays. The 'under' has gone 5-1 in his last six outings. Miles Mikolas will counter for St. Louis. He has had an up and down campaign so far but is coming off a strong start, tossing six shutout innings against the Marlins last time out. The 'under' has gone an incredible 8-1 in his last nine starts. The Cardinals are giving Mikolas less than four runs per start of support this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-23-19 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 10.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. A couple of pitchers in excellent form will do battle at Kauffman Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Michael Pineda has allowed just two earned runs over his last two starts, spanning 11 2/3 innings of work. He's worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven outings. Homer Bailey carries a certain reputation, and it's not a good one. He has pitched well lately, however, allowing a grand total of three earned runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 19 2/3 innings. He worked at least six innings in all three of those outings. Note that he faced the Twins back in April, allowing three earned runs (no home runs) while striking out eight over five innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-20-19 | Rays v. A's UNDER 8 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Oakland at 10:07 pm et on Thursday. The A's are coming off a high-scoring series against the lowly Orioles while the Rays are fresh off a three-game beatdown at the hands of the mighty Yankees. I expect the scoring to settle down in this series, beginning with Wednesday's contest. Charlie Morton will take the ball for the Rays. He owns a 1.59 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 45 1/3 innings of work on the road this season. He has worked at least six innings in five straight starts. In his lone previous start against the A's this season he tossed seven innings of two-hit shutout ball. Frankie Montas will counter for Oakland. He has worked at least six frames in seven of his last eight starts. Over his last three outings he has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 18 innings pitched. Take the under (10*). |
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06-08-19 | Nationals v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. Max Scherzer will take the ball for the Nationals on Saturday night and he has really rounded into form over his last few starts, giving up just two earned runs on 14 hits over his last three starts, spanning 20 innings of work. Scherzer has worked at least six innings in eight consecutive outings. Eric Lauer will counter for San Diego. He shouldn't be overlooked in this matchup as he's been pitching well, giving up only four earned runs in 24 innings of work over his last four starts. Lauer has given up three earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in two career starts against Washington. Take the under (10*). |
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06-08-19 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Kansas City at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito has worked at least seven innings in five of his last six outings, allowing one earned run or less in five of those starts as well. He's worked at least into the seventh inning in four of his last five starts against the Royals. Meanwhile, Royals starter Brad Keller has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six starts. Keller has given up just 10 earned runs in his last six starts against the White Sox, covering a span of 36 1/3 innings pitched. Take the under (10*). |
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05-31-19 | Nationals v. Reds UNDER 9 | 3-9 | Loss | -111 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Cincinnati on Friday night. Patrick Corbin will take the ball for the Nationals. He has worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts and is fresh off a complete game shutout victory over the Marlins. Note that he has worked at least into the eighth inning in two of three career starts here in Cincinnati. Tyler Mahle will counter for the Reds. He saw his streak of three consecutive starts lasting at least six innings end last time out against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. I think we'll see him bounce back here, however, noting that he has posted a miniscule 0.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in two home starts spanning 11 innings this season. Take the under (10*). |
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05-30-19 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 10 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring series a couple of weeks ago but I expect to see a lower-scoring affair in Arlington on Thursday night. Jakob Junis has worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. Only one of those five games went 'over' the total. Junis faced the Rangers once last season and gave up just three runs in six innings in a 3-2 loss. Mike Minor has quietly been getting the job done for the Rangers this season. The 'under' has gone 4-1 over his last five starts and 6-2 over his last eight trips to the hill. He loves pitching here in Arlington, where he has posted a 2.08 ERA in 34 2/3 innings of work this season. Take the under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy MLB Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-21-20 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
08-21-20 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 2-11 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
08-20-20 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
08-19-20 | Astros v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | 13-6 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show | |
08-18-20 | A's v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
08-17-20 | A's v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
08-17-20 | Giants v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
08-17-20 | Padres v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 14-4 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
08-15-20 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 2-6 | Win | 105 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
08-14-20 | Rangers v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
08-14-20 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
08-13-20 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
08-12-20 | Cubs v. Indians UNDER 8 | 7-2 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
08-11-20 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 8 | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
08-11-20 | Royals v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 103 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
08-10-20 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
08-09-20 | Rockies v. Mariners OVER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
08-06-20 | Brewers v. White Sox OVER 9 | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
08-02-20 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
07-30-20 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show | |
07-29-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
07-28-20 | Braves v. Rays UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
07-27-20 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | 5-8 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
07-26-20 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 9.5 | 14-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
07-24-20 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 84 h 31 m | Show |
09-03-19 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 106 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
09-03-19 | Mariners v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
09-03-19 | Giants v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
09-03-19 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 9.5 | 6-5 | Win | 101 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
09-02-19 | Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
08-29-19 | A's v. Royals OVER 10 | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
08-27-19 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
08-27-19 | Cubs v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
08-26-19 | Pirates v. Phillies UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
08-25-19 | Rays v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
08-24-19 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 10.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
08-22-19 | Nationals v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
08-21-19 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
08-21-19 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
08-20-19 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 | 4-14 | Win | 106 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
08-20-19 | Giants v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
08-20-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
08-19-19 | Royals v. Orioles OVER 10 | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
08-16-19 | Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 10 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
08-15-19 | Mets v. Braves OVER 10 | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
08-14-19 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
08-14-19 | A's v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 103 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
08-13-19 | Astros v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
08-12-19 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 10 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
08-12-19 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 11 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
08-11-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
08-11-19 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
08-11-19 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
08-10-19 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 12-4 | Win | 101 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
08-09-19 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
08-09-19 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 11.5 | 4-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
08-08-19 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 12-5 | Win | 104 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
08-07-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
08-06-19 | A's v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
08-06-19 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
08-06-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
08-05-19 | A's v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
08-05-19 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
08-04-19 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
08-02-19 | Reds v. Braves OVER 9 | 5-2 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
08-02-19 | White Sox v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
07-31-19 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
07-30-19 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 10 | 2-4 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
07-29-19 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 10 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 1 h 53 m | Show |
07-25-19 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
07-25-19 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
07-21-19 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
07-20-19 | Cardinals v. Reds UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 101 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
07-18-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
07-17-19 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 10.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
07-17-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
07-15-19 | Braves v. Brewers UNDER 10 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
07-14-19 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | 12-4 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
07-14-19 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
07-13-19 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 10 | 7-6 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
07-05-19 | Rangers v. Twins UNDER 10 | 6-15 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
07-05-19 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
07-05-19 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
07-04-19 | Indians v. Royals UNDER 10 | 8-4 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
07-04-19 | Brewers v. Reds UNDER 9 | 0-1 | Win | 101 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
07-04-19 | Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 10 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
07-03-19 | Giants v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
07-03-19 | Indians v. Royals UNDER 9 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
06-27-19 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
06-27-19 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 8-5 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
06-27-19 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
06-26-19 | Rays v. Twins UNDER 9 | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
06-26-19 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
06-23-19 | Angels v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 6-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
06-23-19 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 10.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
06-20-19 | Rays v. A's UNDER 8 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
06-08-19 | Nationals v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
06-08-19 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
05-31-19 | Nationals v. Reds UNDER 9 | 3-9 | Loss | -111 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
05-30-19 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 10 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |