Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-09-21 | Reds v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the Reds 'over' yesterday afternoon but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they open a road trip in Cleveland on Monday. First, it's worth noting that the wind is expected to be blowing out to right-center field in this one, ideal conditions for the bats at Progressive Field. Luis Castillo will take the ball for the Reds. While he has certainly turned things around with a terrific stretch of performances, this is by no means an ideal spot as he starts on just four days' rest for the third consecutive outing. While the Indians struggled against Castillo in their first look at him back in 2019, they've figured him out since, scoring seven earned runs in just nine innings against him since last season, including a 9-2 victory here in Cleveland back in May. Behind Castillo is a Reds bullpen that really struggled in night games this season, posting a collective 5.45 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with 19 saves converted and 16 blown. Sam Hentges will get a spot start for the Indians. He's yet to find much success at the big league level and the jury is still out as to whether he's capable of rounding into a major league starter. In three home starts this season, the left-hander has recorded an ugly 9.31 ERA and 2.38 WHIP. That's despite tossing 4 2/3 shutout innings here in his big league debut back in mid-May. Hentges is averaging just under 3 2/3 innings per start and now faces a Reds club that has averaged a whopping seven runs per game over the last week. While the Indians bullpen has been solid this season, it has struggled in interleague play, recording a collective 4.92 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with only three saves converted and four blown in 56 2/3 innings of work. Take the over (10*). |
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08-08-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. This has been a high-scoring series all the way with the first three games totaling 11, 10 and 14 runs. I expect more of the same on Sunday afternoon. Bryse Wilson will get a third straight turn in the rotation for the Pirates. He's held up alright over his last couple of outings, allowing only one earned run in eight innings. However, he's struck out only two while walking three so it's not as if he's really fooling anyone. In three daytime starts this season he owns a 5.52 ERA and 1.43 WHIP and faces a Reds club that has plated 46 runs over its last six games. With Wilson averaging just over four innings per start we should see plenty of a Pirates bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.03 ERA and 1.35 WHIP on the road (entering last night's action) and hasn't had a day off since July 26th. Tyler Mahle will counter for Cincinnati. He has struggled all season at Great American Ballpark, posting a 6.18 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in eight of his 10 starts. With Mahle averaging just a shade over five innings per start at home the Reds bullpen, which has recorded a collective 5.88 ERA and 1.44 WHIP here in Cincinnati (entering last night's action) should be pressed into action once again. Take the over (6*). |
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08-07-21 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the first five innings 'over' in Mariners starter Chris Flexen's most recent outing. He actually pitched well in that game, allowing only two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work against the Rays. Road success hasn't been the norm for Flexen this season, however, as he's posted a 5.44 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in eight starts away from home. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 in his eight previous road starts. Behind Flexen is a Mariners bullpen that has already coughed up the first two games in this series and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.85 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with 15 saves converted and 13 blown away from home this season. With Flexen averaging just 5.6 innings per start on the road this season, we should see plenty of the M's relief corps today. Andrew Heaney will counter for New York. His Yankees debut did not go well at all as he was lit up for four home runs (all four were solo shots so the damage could have been worse) in just four innings of work against the Orioles. Now he makes a second straight start on just four days' rest and faces a familiar Mariners lineup (from his days with the Angels in the A.L. West) that has torched him for eight earned runs in just 7 1/3 innings this season. Heaney didn't issue a walk in his last start but command has been an issue for the left-hander. After giving up those four home runs last time out, look for him to try to be a little too perfect today and that could lead to plenty of Mariners base-runners. With the Yankees having not had a day off since July 26th, their bullpen comes in overworked. Keep in mind, this is a bullpen that has posted a 3.85 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with only 11 saves converted and eight blown at home (entering last night's action), with that ERA rising to 4.50 in day games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-05-21 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair on Thursday night in Chicago. Rookie Daniel Lynch gets the nod for the Royals. He's pitched reasonably well since returning to the big leagues in July but we're talking about a small sample size of just two starts. He's recorded an ugly 46.3% hard-hit ball percentage this season, more than 7% higher than the MLB average. That's not to mention his 30% line drive percentage - also around 7% north of the MLB average. The White Sox will be in bounce-back mode on Thursday and get their second look at Lynch this season after chasing him after scoring a whopping eight earned runs in just 2/3 of an inning back in early May. Behind Lynch is a Royals bullpen that has posted a 5.19 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the road this season. Veteran Dallas Keuchel will take the ball for the White Sox. He'll be pitching on just four days' rest for the second straight start. The last time he did that he allowed six runs, three of them earned, and lasted only 2 2/3 innings against the Astros back in June. He enters this start having been blasted for six home runs over his last two outings, including three in a start against these same Royals last week. In nine starts against division opponents this season, Keuchel has posted a 6.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in seven of those games. The White Sox bullpen has logged just 342 innings this season so should be holding up well at this stage of the season. However, they've managed to convert just one save while blowing three in the last seven games alone and check in with a less than impressive 4.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 15 saves converted and 11 blown at home this season. Take the over (7*). |
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08-05-21 | Twins v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in Houston on Thursday night. The Twins were of course sellers prior to the trade deadline and are now left with a lineup that could probably fit in at triple-A ball. With that being said, they are coming off a high-scoring series against the Reds as they abused an awful Cincinnati bullpen. They're not likely to be so fortunate here, however, as the Astros 'pen has posted a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 11 saves converted and only five blown at home this season. It would certainly be understandable if the Astros lacked some focus at the plate in this one as they return home after a long road trip that included stops against the division rival Mariners in Seattle and two of the N.L.'s best teams in the Giants and Dodgers. Griffin Jax will take the ball for Minnesota. He was slated to start yesterday but that was pushed back a day allowing him to pitch on a full five days' rest here. Each of his first three big league starts have come on the road so he's battle-tested in a sense. After struggling in his first outing he's settled down to allow just two earned runs in nine innings over his last two starts. This will be just his fourth outing since July 3rd so his arm is fresh. I expect him to perhaps go deeper into this game than he has previously, having never gone more than five innings. He'll have the advantage of facing the Astros for the first time. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. He's faced the Twins twice during his career and has managed them well on both occasions, allowing just two earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. He'll be making his fourth straight start on at least five days' rest. While his command hasn't been there over his last couple of starts he's made up for it by allowing just four hits while striking out 10 in 11 innings of work. The Twins are a weaker offensive club both on the road and against left-handed pitching and I don't envision them inflicting much damage against Valdez here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-05-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 0-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Cleveland and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Truth be told, the Blue Jays should have a good shot at toppling this total all on their own based on the way they're seeing the ball right now. They'll be facing Triston McKenzie for the first time on Thursday but I don't expect the right-hander to have any sort of advantage. Note that he'll be pitching on just four days' rest for the second time in his last three starts. He's been lit up for six home runs in 14 innings over his last three outings, allowing a whopping 17 hits and 13 earned runs along the way. He checks in sporting a 6.75 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in eight away starts this season. Ross Stripling has held up well over his last couple of starts for Toronto but he's been anything but consistent this season. He enters this start having recorded a 6.93 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in eight nighttime starts with the 'over' cashing in five of those games. The Indians only managed to score one earned run off of him over five innings the last time they saw him back in May, but he had the advantage of pitching on 10 days' rest on that occasion. Here, he'll be making his third start since July 25th. Take the first five innings over (6*). |
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08-04-21 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | 3-10 | Loss | -116 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This one doesn't scream pitcher's duel with Matt Harvey taking on Jameson Taillon but I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in the Bronx nonetheless. Harvey has quietly turned things around, tossing 18 1/3 shutout innings over his last three starts. He hasn't issued a walk in his last two outings and hasn't given up a home runs since back on June 25th against Toronto - six starts ago. He's always had the Yankees number, most recently allowing just three earned runs on six hits over 12 innings against them since 2019, including one start this season resulting in a 4-2 Orioles victory. Jameson Taillon has posted a 3.26 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 11 home starts this season and enters this start in fine form having given up just one earned run over his last three outings, covering a span of 18 innings (you would have to go back four starts to find the last time he gave up a home run). We saw a slugfest in this same matchup last night with the Yankees bats finally waking up to score 13 runs. Keep in mind, they had scored four runs or less in 11 straight games prior to that. Meanwhile, the Orioles have been a weaker offensive team both on the road and against right-handed pitching this season. While both bullpens have been somewhat unreliable there's reason for optimism here noting that the O's relief corps has converted 13 saves while blowing only six on the road and the Yankees 'pen has posted 12 saves compared to only three blown against A.L. East opponents. Take the under (6*). |
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08-03-21 | Braves v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. The Braves have seen just three of their last nine games go 'over' the total and I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday night in St. Louis. While Atlanta has hit better against left-handed pitching this season it has actually scored a grand total of just one run in its last two games against southpaw starters. Also note that it has already seen Cards newly-acquired left-hander Jon Lester twice this season and has managed to score just four earned runs in 10 2/3 innings with the 'under' cashing in both of those games. Lester enters this start on extended rest but will likely still have a short leash, noting that he averages less than five innings per start this season. The good news is that behind Lester is an improving Cardinals bullpen that comes off an off day on Monday and has posted a collective 3.90 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 19 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Max Fried gets the nod for Atlanta. He should benefit from facing a Cards club that averages just 3.6 runs per game against lefties this season. Fried already limited St. Louis to just one earned run over seven innings back in June. His road numbers aren't good this season but he enters this outing on a full five days' rest and has posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his last three starts overall, with two of those coming on the road. Like the Cards 'pen, the Braves relief corps has been improving and checks in with a 4.27 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season, converting 13 saves while blowing only five. Take the under (10*). |
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08-02-21 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
A.L. First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Seattle and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring start on Monday's showdown between the Mariners and Rays in St. Petersburg. Chris Flexen gets the start for Seattle. The wheels have come off for him over his last couple of starts as he's been tagged for nine earned runs on 15 hits over just 9 1/3 innings of work. Note that he's recorded a grand total of only six strikeouts over his last three outings. He owns a 5.92 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in seven road starts this season with the 'over' cashing in all seven of those contests. To make matters worse he faces a Rays club that he has faced once before, back in 2018, when he gave up five earned runs and exited after just three innings. Michael Wacha will counter for Tampa Bay. He's been terrific at home this season but I don't have a great deal of confidence in him as he pitches on just four days' rest here, and faces a Mariners club that has certainly had his number, facing him twice since 2019, including once already this season, scoring nine earned runs on 17 hits while drawing three walks and striking out only twice in just seven innings. It's worth noting that Wacha has allowed 11 earned runs on 22 hits in just 14 1/3 innings when pitching on four days' rest this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid (for the most part) a Rays bullpen that has posted a collective 2.56 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at home this season. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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08-02-21 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | 7-1 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Baltimore and New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring weekend series' but I expect a different story to unfold on Monday night in the Bronx. Baltimore will give the start to Jorge Lopez. He'll be facing the Yankees for the fifth time since the start of last season and he's had very minimal success against them. New York has scored 10 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings against Lopez this season. He's topped out at four strikeouts over his last six starts, failing to last five innings in any of those outings. Andrew Heaney will get his first start since coming over to the Yankees prior to the trade deadline. This might be a tougher matchup than it appears as the Orioles enter this game hitting better against left-handed pitching and also overall in their last seven games. Heaney struggled at the best of times at home as a member of the Angels this season, posting a 5.57 ERA and 1.39 WHIP and now faces the pressure of pitching in the Bronx. Here, he'll be starting on just four days' rest for the first time this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid factoring in a solid Yankees bullpen that has by no means been lately and owns a collective 3.55 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 12 converted saves and only three blown against division opponents this season. Take the first five innings over (7*). |
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07-31-21 | Twins v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting some offense as the Twins and Cardinals continue their series in St. Louis on Saturday night. Bailey Ober will get another turn in the rotation for the Twins. He checks in sporting a 4.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with the 'over' having cashed in three of his four road starts this season. Given he averages just over four innings per start on the road we should see plenty of a Twins bullpen that has posted a collective 5.62 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 11 saves converted and eight blown in night games this season. Jake Woodford will counter for the Cards. He's failed to make it through six innings in his first two starts, allowing 13 hits and four earned runs in 10 2/3 innings of work. Should he fail to work deep into the game again on Saturday we'll see plenty of a Cards 'pen that owns a collective 4.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in night games this season. Take the over (7*). |
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07-31-21 | A's v. Angels OVER 10 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We've seen consecutive low-scoring games to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold in Anaheim on Saturday. Left-hander Cole Irvin will take the ball for Oakland. The Angels will be getting their fourth look at him already this season. They enjoyed plenty of success in their first two tries against him before getting shut out over seven innings against him a couple of weeks ago (we actually won with the A's in that game). Note that the Angels have been a better offensive team both at home and against left-handed starting pitching this season. Prior to getting shut out the last two nights, the Halos had scored 23 runs in their previous four contests. Irvin has generally been weaker in day games this season, recording a 4.14 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 10 starts. Behind Irvin is an uneven A's bullpen that has posted a collective 3.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the road this season with 12 saves converted and 10 blown. Jaime Barria will counter for Los Angeles. He pitched well in his first start of the season last time out but going back further has generally struggled at the big league level. The A's didn't do much against him back in 2018 but then in 2019 scored five runs, four of them earned, in just four innings. Note that the A's have actually been a better offensive team on the road than at home this season. The real key to the A's success here could be the way they match up against the Angels bullpen. Los Angeles hasn't had a day off since July 21st and its 'pen has struggled all season, particularly in day games where it owns a collective 5.54 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with nine saves converted and five blown. Take the over (10*). |
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07-30-21 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Neither of these teams are tearing the cover off the ball right now - in fact, quite the opposite. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in Friday's series-opener. Jean-Carlos Mejia will take the ball for the Indians. He has admittedly struggled this season - his numbers are downright ugly. However, he did match a season-high by going six innings in his most recent start and now gets the opportunity to face the White Sox for the first time in his career, and do so on a full five days' rest. Note that his last two starts have come against opponents he's been facing for the second time in less than a month. I'll also point out that Mejia has struck out 14 in his last two outings - showing some clear progress after recording just 14 strikeouts in his previous four starts combined. Mejia will likely have a short leash here though, noting that he averages less than four innings per start on the road this season. That's ok with us as the Indians bullpen has been solid, recording a 3.03 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only three blown against division opponents this season. Lance Lynn will counter for Chicago. He's been lights out at home this season, posting a 1.64 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 11 home starts, with the 'over' cashing in just one of those games. Going back over his last five outings, Lynn has given up just four earned runs in 28 innings of work. Behind Lynn is one of the freshest bullpens in baseball as the White Sox relief corps has logged just over 320 innings this season. Like the Indians, the White Sox 'pen has fared well against division opponents, posting a collective 3.27 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 14 saves converted and eight blown entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). |
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07-29-21 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Colorado and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Padres are coming off consecutive high-scoring affairs against the A's but I look for a different story to unfold against the Rockies on Thursday - at least in the early stages of this one. Kyle Freeland will take the ball for the Rockies. The Padres will be seeing him for the third time this season and while they've had some previous success against him, he does come into this start pitching well, noting that he's allowed three earned runs or less in six straight starts. The 'under' has actually cashed in five of his six road outings this season. I'll also point out that the Padres offense has been slightly weaker both at home and against left-handed pitching this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid factoring in an awful Rockies bullpen that has struggled all season, particularly away from home. Joe Musgrove will counter for San Diego. He's been outstanding at home this season but did struggle in his most recent outing against the Rockies, which did come here in San Diego. Keep in mind, he was pitching on just four days' rest in that one. Here, he starts on a full five days' rest and should improve on his stellar 2.83 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home. Better still, Musgrove owns a 2.59 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 13 nighttime starts this season. The Rockies have of course been a weaker offensive club both on the road and against right-handed pitching this season. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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07-28-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 11-4 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series have been high-scoring but I look for Wednesday's series-finale to get off to a low-scoring start at the very least. Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for Houston. He has struggled a bit in his last couple of outings but still owns a solid 3.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in six road starts this season. He has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, not allowing a home run in five of his last six starts overall. Despite what we've seen in the first couple of games in this series, the Mariners have actually been a slightly weaker offensive team at home compared to on the road this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid an Astros bullpen that owns a 4.40 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with 12 saves converted and 11 blown on the road this season. Yusei Kikuchi will counter for the Mariners. He bounced back from a couple of shaky outings to strike out 12 while allowing just three earned runs over six innings last time out. Kikuchi has posted a sparkling 1.77 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in six daytime starts this season. He seemed to figure out the Astros in his last start against them in late April, tossing seven innings of one-hit shutout ball. There's no real reason to knock a quality Mariners bullpen but I will point out that they have collectively posted a higher ERA in day games this season, currently sitting at 3.91. Take the first five innings under (7*). |
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07-23-21 | Padres v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. |
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07-23-21 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 1-5 | Win | 101 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Braves got off to a fast start at the plate and cruised the rest of the way in last night's 7-2 victory. I look for the starting pitchers to dominate Friday's contest, in the early going at least. Max Fried will get the nod for Atlanta. After struggling in his first few starts against the Phillies back in 2019 he's been locked in over his last three going back to the start of last season. In those three outings he has allowed just three earned runs in 15 innings of work. Note that Fried comes into this start off a seven-inning shutout performance against the Rays last week. While his road numbers are poor this season, it's worth noting that in his last two road starts on five days' rest (as is the case here) he's given up just four earned runs in 11 innings. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Braves bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 4.63 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road this season. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. He is of course enjoying a career year and has been particularly sharp here at home, recording a 2.16 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 11 starts. Not surprisingly, he's owned the Braves in two previous home starts this season, allowing only five hits while posting a ridiculous 22:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 shutout innings. The Phillies bullpen is another one we'll look to avoid, noting that they've posted a collective 5.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 11 saves converted compared to nine blown at home this season. Take the first five innings under (7*). |
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07-22-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams come in riding three-game 'over' streaks, with those streaks starting with an 'over' result last Sunday night that we experienced first hand (a true 'bad beat' for us with the 'under' as the game was 3-0 heading into the bottom of the seventh inning but went 'over' by half a run with a 9-1 final score). Here, I look for those 'over' streaks to come to an end as the scene shifts to Fenway Park. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for the Yankees. He's held his own on the mound lately but unfortunately has been given just seven runs to work with over his last five starts. Montgomery checks in sporting a 3.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 11 nighttime starts this season with the 'under' cashing in seven of those games. This will be Boston's third look at Montgomery this season with minimal previous success having scored six earned runs in 12 innings against him. Behind Montgomery is a Yankees bullpen that has been at its best on the road this season, recording a collective 3.11 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only two blown. Tanner Houck returns to the big leagues to make just his third start of the season for the Red Sox. In his first two starts this season - which both came back in April - he allowed five earned runs in 9 1/3 innings. Note that he faced the Yankees last September and pitched well, giving up just one unearned run over six innings here at Fenway Park. Houck will likely have a short leash in this game and that's fine for our purposes as the Red Sox bullpen has posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with 13 saves converted and five blown here at home this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-21-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Rivalry Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive high-scoring games to open this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Kyle Hendricks will make his fourth start against the Cardinals this season and sixth going back to the start of last season. The Cards have never really been able to figure the veteran right-hander out and I don't expect them to do so tonight either. In five previous games against Hendricks since last August, St. Louis has never managed to score more than three earned runs - held to two earned runs or less in each of their last four tries against him. Just before the All-Star break, Hendricks held the Cards to two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings. Note that Hendricks checks in sporting a 3.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in nine road starts this season with the 'under' cashing in five of those games. With Hendricks averaging over six innings per start on the road this season we might not need too much help from the Cubs bullpen but it's worth noting that they entered last night's action sporting a solid 3.37 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in night games this season with 11 converted saves and only four blown. Adam Wainwright will counter for St. Louis. He's been outstanding at home this season, recording a 2.84 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 11 starts with the 'under' going 8-3 in those games. The Cubs will be seeing him for the third time since last September, having managed just two earned runs on seven hits off of him in their last two tries, covering a span of 14 1/3 innings. While Wainwright will be starting on just four days' rest that's not as big of a concern given he had a 10 days between starts previously thanks to the All-Star break. While the Cards bullpen has posted outstanding numbers across the board this season, they did enter last night's contest having converted an incredible 18 saves while blowing only one here at home this season. The Cubs offense busted out last night but prior to that had averaged just 3.6 runs per game on the road this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-20-21 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 1-4 | Win | 101 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Texas and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Tigers offense exploded for 14 runs in last night's rout of the Rangers. Texas' scoring woes continued as it has now scored just two runs in four games since the All-Star break and has been shutout in three consecutive contests (two of those games were seven-inning affairs). Dane Dunning will get the start for the Rangers on Tuesday. He has admittedly struggled on the road this season but did head into the break on a positive note, having posted a 1.93 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three starts, including a road start in Oakland that saw him toss four shutout innings. The break probably came at a good time for Dunning as he had made two of his last three starts on just four days' rest. Note that he has been at his best this season in nighttime starts, recording a 4.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 10 outings. After struggling against the Tigers in his first start against them last August, he bounced back and allowed just one earned run on one hit over five innings against them in his last start before the break. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Rangers bullpen that has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 5.35 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with only six converted saves and five blown (entering last night's action). Left-hander Tarik Skubal will counter for Detroit. Like Dunning, he also made two of his last three starts before the break on just four days' rest so the extra days off came at a good time. Skubal has pitched reasonably well at home this season, recording a 3.78 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in nine starts. He'll have the benefit of facing the Rangers for the first time in his career on Tuesday. With the Tigers bullpen entering last night's action having posted a collective 5.89 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at night this season, we'll look to avoid that unit by playing the first five innings only here. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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07-19-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 8.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. We saw consecutive low-scoring games involving the A's over the weekend as they dropped a pair against the Indians. Here, I look for a different story to unfold as the Angels roll into Oakland to open this series. Shohei Ohtani will get the start for Los Angeles. After taking center stage during the All-Star festivities last week he played in all three games during the Angels weekend series against the Mariners. I simply question whether we'll see Ohtani at his best on the mound on Monday night. Note that he has posted an ugly 6.46 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in three of his five road starts this season. The A's have already seen Ohtani twice since the start of last season, scoring eight earned runs in just six innings against him. Behind Ohtani is a weak Angels bullpen that has posted a collective 4.74 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season. Note that the L.A. relief corps was just forced to work 9 1/3 innings over the course of its three-game series against the Mariners. Not including yesterday's game, the Angels 'pen has recorded a 5.26 ERA and 1.47 WHIP against A.L. West opponents this season. Cole Irvin will counter for the A's. The Angels have of course been a considerably better offensive club against left-handed pitching this season. In fact, in their last two games against left-handed starters they've put up a whopping 16 runs. Irvin has made eight starts against division opponents this season, recording a 6.80 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. The Angels will be getting their third look at him this season having already scored eight earned runs on 15 hits in just 11 2/3 innings. The only other opponent Irvin has faced three times this season is the Astros and in his third outing against them he was tagged for five earned runs on eight hits over five innings. While the A's bullpen has been terrific at converting saves here at home this season it has still given up its share of runs, entering yesterday's game sporting a collective 4.25 ERA and 1.23 WHIP here at home. Against A.L. West opponents, the A's 'pen has posted a 4.90 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Take the over (7*). |
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07-18-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring, rain-shortened game between these two teams last night as the Yankees prevailed by a 3-1 score in six innings. While I'm not anticipating a true pitcher's duel here, I do think we'll see this contest stay 'under' the lofty total. Martin Perez has been a pleasant surprise for the Red Sox this season, particularly on the road where he has recorded a stellar 2.04 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in seven starts, with the 'under' cashing in six of those games. He does average less than five innings per start overall, but that number bumps up to 5 2/3 innings on the road. He'll likely have a short leash again here but that's fine as the Red Sox bullpen has recorded a collective 3.09 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 23 saves converted and only nine blown in night games this season. While the Yankees did have Perez's number earlier in this career, he has been serviceable against them lately, allowing just three earned runs over 12 2/3 innings in his last three outings against them. Jameson Taillon didn't get his Yankees tenure off to a positive start this season but he has pitched better lately and has certainly been at his best here in the Bronx where he owns a 3.59 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 10 starts this season. He checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. Like Perez, he generally doesn't work deep into ball games, averaging just 4.9 innings per start but that number does boost to 5 1/3 innings here at home. Behind Taillon is a fresh Yankees bullpen that didn't have to work thanks to the rain (and Gerrit Cole) last night. The New York relief corps has posted a collective 3.17 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with 15 saves converted and only six blown in night games this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-18-21 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. |
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07-17-21 | Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Francisco and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Giants busted out for seven runs in last night's rout of the Cardinals. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair on Saturday - at least in the early stages of this one. Anthony DeSclafani will take the ball for San Francisco. He labored through a couple of starts against the Cardinals last season but he's obviously been a different pitcher here in 2021. DeSclafani checks in sporting a 2.14 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 11 road starts this season, with the 'under' cashing at an 8-3-1 clip. Better still, he has posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 14 nighttime outings. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Giants bullpen that has blown 11 saves on the road this season. The Cards will give left-hander Kwang-Hyun Kim the nod. He owns a 3.27 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in seven home starts this season. Kim really rounded into form prior to the All-Star break, recording a sparkling 0.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over his last three outings. I do think the extra couple of days off should serve as a positive, however, as he had made five consecutive starts on just four days' rest. Note that he'll be facing a Giants club that has been slightly weaker offensively on the road and considerably so against southpaw pitchers this season. They certainly didn't fare well against Kim earlier this month as they were shut out over seven innings. With Kim averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start at home, we'll likely see plenty from the Cardinals bullpen here, which we'll look to avoid by playing the first five innings only as St. Louis' relief corps has posted a 4.06 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at home this season. Take the first five innings under (8*). |
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07-17-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
MLB on FOX F5 Innings Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Chicago at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. |
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07-16-21 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. While playing 'overs' can be tricky coming out of the All-Star break with rested starting pitchers and bullpens, I see this as an ideal spot to call for a relatively high-scoring affair. Chris Flexen will take ball for the Mariners. While he's posted impressive numbers overall this season, that's been due in large part to the fact that he's made 10 of his 16 starts at home. Things haven't gone nearly as smooth on the road, where he owns a 6.97 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 31 innings of work. Here, the Angels will be getting their second look at Flexen in less than a week after he shut them down in Seattle on July 10th. In their lone previous game against Flexen, the Angels had more success, scoring three earned runs and chasing him from the game after just four innings in late April. With Flexen averaging just over five innings per start on the road this season we'll likely see plenty of the Mariners bullpen in this one. Like Flexen, the Mariners relief corps has also been much better at home than on the road, where it has recorded a collective 5.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with 12 converted saves and 10 blown this season. Los Angeles will counter with left-hander Andrew Heaney. He checks in with a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in eight home starts this season with the 'over' cashing at a 6-1-1 clip. The Mariners didn't do much against him in three tries last season but seemed to figure him out in his lone outing against them this year, scoring four earned runs including three home runs in only 3 1/3 innings. Note that Seattle has been a slightly better offensive club against left-handers and on the road this season. Like Flexen, Heaney doesn't tend to work deep into games, averaging just over five innings per start. While the Angels bullpen was better in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break, it still owns a less than impressive 4.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with 11 converted saves and eight blown here at home this season. Worse still, that ERA rises to 5.21 to go along with a 1.45 WHIP against division opponents. Take the over (10*). |
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07-16-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting a well-pitched game in Chicago on Friday night as the Astros send Lance McCullers Jr. to the hill against Dylan Cease. McCullers checks in sporting a 2.94 ERA 1.43 WHIP in six road starts this season. The White Sox have never really been able to figure him out, seeing him five times previously and managing to score just eight earned runs in 30 1/3 innings. Note that Chicago has been slightly weaker offensively both at home and against right-handed pitching this season. Behind McCullers is a solid Astros bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.99 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road this season. Here, they'll have all hands on deck coming out of the break and it's worth noting they've posted a stellar 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over their last seven games with three saves converted and only one blown. Dylan Cease got hit hard by the Astros earlier this season but that was in Houston. He's been a completely different pitcher at home compared to on the road this season, posting a 1.81 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in eight starts. While he will be pitching on just four days' rest here, that hasn't been a problem this season - at least at home, where he has done so on three previous occasions, allowing just one earned run over 18 2/3 innings of work. With Cease averaging right around 5 2/3 innings per start at home we're likely going to need a significant contribution from the White Sox bullpen. That's fine as they've posted a collective 4.03 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 14 saves converted and eight blown here at home this season and like the Astros have been better lately, recording a 2.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over their last seven contests. Take the under (8*). |
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07-11-21 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between New York and Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. |
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07-10-21 | Royals v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Kansas City and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. |
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07-10-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 11 | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Boston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. This is obviously a very high posted total for a game not played at Coors Field but I believe it's warranted. Matt Moore gets the start for the Phillies. He's actually been solid in two starts since returning to the rotation in late June. Here, he'll be pitching on four days' rest for the first time this season, however. He'll also be facing a Red Sox club that has averaged seven runs per game in their last six games against left-handed starters. Behind Moore is a Phillies bullpen that has posted a collective 5.17 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in day games this season blowing eight saves while converting only four. Martin Perez will counter for Boston. He's having a fine season but is in a bit of a tough spot today, making his third consecutive start on four days' rest. It's also worth noting that he has posted an inflated 5.66 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 10 home starts. We've seen him labor through his last three outings, allowing 21 hits in 14 1/3 innings of work. He's also topped out at three strikeouts in his last six starts. The Red Sox bullpen has been solid this season but if there's a spot they're vulnerable it's in day games as they've recorded a collective 4.28 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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07-09-21 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 9 | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We saw a relatively low-scoring contest to open this series last night as the Twins rallied for a 5-3 victory. While Minnesota 'should' pick up a second straight win over the Tigers here, I'm more confident playing the 'over'. Matt Manning gets another start in the Tigers rotation but it's certainly not due to his fine pitching. Quite the contrary, he has been awful in four big league starts this season, allowing 15 earned runs on 25 hits while striking out only six in 17 innings of work. In two road starts Manning has posted an 11.42 ERA and 1.73 WHIP with those two games totaling 12 and 18 runs. Here, he'll be starting on four days' rest for the second time this season after getting tagged for nine earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings in his first opportunity at Cleveland on June 28th. With Manning averaging just 4 1/3 innings per start we should see plenty of the Tigers bullpen in this one as well. They've posted a collective 5.99 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Also note that Detroit hasn't had an off day in over a week. Kenta Maeda will get the call for Minnesota. He rebounded to deliver one of his best starts of the season in Kansas City last time out. That doesn't change the fact that he's struggled for the most part this season. Even here at home while he has managed to record a respectable 3.29 ERA, his WHIP stands at 1.61. Like Manning, Maeda will be starting on four days' rest - doing so for just the third time since the start of last season. In those two previous starts on short rest, Maeda allowed eight runs, six of them earned, in 10 innings of work with the two games totaling 11 and 13 runs. While Maeda has had previous success against Detroit, they'll be seeing him for the fifth time in the last 11 months. Note that the Tigers are generally good for at least a few runs off of Maeda in six or so innings (he's given up 15 earned runs in 30 previous innings pitched against them) and that just might be all we need from them here to help this one 'over' the total. Behind Maeda is a Twins bullpen that hasn't had an off day since June 28th and has been generally awful at home this season, recording a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Worse still, they've posted a 5.70 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in night games. Take the over (10*). |
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07-09-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 5-10 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between St. Louis and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Friday. |
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07-08-21 | Nationals v. Padres UNDER 7 | 8-9 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Washington and San Diego at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night. In fact, each of the first three games in this series have been high-scoring. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however, at least in the early stages of this contest. Max Scherzer will take the ball for Washington. He'll be pitching on a full five days' rest for the first time since missing a turn in the rotation in mid-June. Note that short rest has fazed him as he has allowed just three earned runs in 17 innings over his last three trips to the hill. Scherzer checks in sporting a 2.30 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in eight road starts this season. The Padres had some success against Mad Max early in his career but we're talking over a decade ago. In his last six starts against them he's locked them up, allowing only six earned runs in 42 2/3 innings. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Nationals bullpen that has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 4.49 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The Padres will counter with their ace Yu Darvish. All he's done this season is record a sparkling 2.12 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 11 home starts. He'll be pitching on just four days' rest but that's not a big concern as he hasn't gone beyond the sixth inning in any of his last four starts and hasn't pitched on short rest since June 3rd. Darvish has no recent history against the Nationals, which should give him an advantage here. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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07-06-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the first five innings 'under' in the D'Backs most recent game - a 5-2 loss to the Giants on Sunday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as they open a series at home against the Rockies. Jon Gray will make his third start for the Rockies since returning from a stint on the I.L. He's held up well in his last two outings but I expect him to struggle here. Note that Gray has posted a 5.70 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in five road starts this season with the 'over' cashing in four of those games. The D'Backs will be getting their fourth look at Gray already this season and sixth going back to last August. They've had some success against him, particularly here at home, where they most recent chased him after scoring five runs, four of them earned, over six innings in a 7-2 victory on April 30th. With Gray averaging less than five innings per start on the road this season we'll likely see plenty of the Rockies awful bullpen which owns a 5.50 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road this season. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. He has been pitching reasonably well of late but finds himself in a bit of a tough spot here, pitching on four days' rest for a fifth straight turn in the rotation. Kelly's overall numbers are fine this season but there's no question, the Rockies have had his number, already facing him twice this year and scoring eight earned runs on 16 hits in just 11 2/3 innings. Kelly's last four starts against Colorado have resulted in 9, 14, 10 and 12 total runs. Behind Kelly is a D'Backs bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.06 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with just four saves converted compared to five blown here at home this season. Worse still, against division opponents, the Arizona 'pen has posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.70 WHIP with three saves converted and eight blown. Take the over (10*). |
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07-06-21 | A's v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 6-9 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair as the A's and Astros open their series in Houston on Tuesday night. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the A's. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I've been high on Bassitt all season, even during a tough stretch to open the campaign. He brings excellent form into this start having posted a 1.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three outings. Here, he'll be making his second straight start on five days' rest. Bassitt has certainly held his own on the road, where he has posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season, with the 'under' cashing in five of his nine starts. While he hasn't been great in his career against the Astros, given his current form I think Bassitt can overcome his previous struggles against them here. The A's bullpen got a much-needed off day yesterday and checks in sporting a collective 3.75 ERA and 1.31 WHIP on the road this season. Interestingly, they've converted 15 saves while blowing just five in night games this season. Left-hander Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. He's currently one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball. In three home starts he has recorded a sparkling 2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Better still, in five nighttime starts he has posted a 1.95 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The A's got two looks at Valdez last season and never figured him out, managing just three earned runs in 14 innings. Like the A's, the Astros bullpen also enjoyed an off day on Monday. The Houston relief corps has been at their best against division opponents this season, posting a collective 3.69 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 126 2/3 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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07-05-21 | Reds v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -118 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in the Royals 6-2 loss to the Twins yesterday as the scoring simply started too late. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday night as the Royals open an Interleague series against the Reds. Vladimir Gutierrez will get the call for Cincinnati. He owns a 4.77 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season. Here, he'll be making his second straight start on four days' rest. Considering he has posted an ugly ERA north of eight to go along with an 1.89 WHIP over his last three outings there's reason for concern as he prepares to face the Royals here. Behind Gutierrez is a Reds bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 4.77 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season. Also note that the Reds haven't had an off day since June 23rd. Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. He'll inexplicably be making his ninth consecutive start on four days' rest. Note that Minor has recorded a 5.57 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in nine home starts this season. Over his last three trips to the hill he has posted an 8.64 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. The Royals bullpen has posted a collective 4.39 ERA and 1.39 WHIP at night this season, converting 10 saves to go along with seven blown. Take the over (10*). |
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07-05-21 | Dodgers v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Marlins are coming off a wild, high-scoring extra innings loss in Atlanta yesterday but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday. Walker Buehler will get the start for the Dodgers in Monday's series opener. He has struggled in two previous starts here in Miami but those came long enough ago that I'm willing to take a flyer here (his last start in Miami came in August of 2019). He didn't give up a single earned run in two other previous outings against the Marlins in Los Angeles. Back to this season though, Buehler has been outstanding on the road, posting a 2.06 ERA and 0.79 WHIP, averaging just shy of 6 2/3 innings per start. He's coming off one of his better outings of the season and will be pitching on five days' rest for the first time since June 19th when he gave up just two earned runs over 7 1/3 innings in Arizona. The Dodgers bullpen hasn't been as dominant on the road as it has been at home but has certainly pitched well so far on this trip, entering yesterday's game sporting a collective ERA of 0.40 and a 0.94 WHIP over their last seven contests. L.A.'s relief corps checks in with a 3.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in night games this season. Trevor Rogers will counter for Miami. He's been terrific at home this season, recording a 2.45 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Better still, he has posted a 2.20 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts this season. I also like the fact that Rogers will be making his third straight start on at least five days' rest. The Miami bullpen has posted a collective 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home this season with eight converted saves and four blown. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-21 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Francisco and Arizona at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. |
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07-04-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Rockies prevailed by a 3-2 score. Here, I look for a different story to unfold. Carlos Martinez will take the ball for the Cardinals. He has of course struggled at the best of times this season and here will be making his third straight start on just four days' rest. Martinez owns a 7.08 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road this season. The Rockies have certainly had his number over the years, most recently scoring seven earned runs in 9 2/3 innings against him in two starts going back to the 2018 season. With Martinez averaging just 5.1 innings per start on the road this season we should see plenty of the Cardinals bullpen here. While St. Louis' relief corps hasn't been awful, it has posted a less than impressive 4.33 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with eight saves converted and five blown on the road this season. My concern is that St. Louis hasn't had an off day since June 21st so we're talking about an overworked 'pen. German Marquez will start on four days' rest for the Rockies after tossing a complete game shutout against the Pirates last time out. He's actually pitched well overall this season but hasn't been at his best in daytime starts, posting a 5.22 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in eight outings. In those eight starts he has lasted just 5.2 innings on average. That opens the door for an awful Rockies bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with just nine saves converted compared to 10 blown here at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-04-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 10 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. This is an absolute smash spot for the Twins offense but I also expect the Royals to do their part to help this one 'over' the total. Kenta Maeda will take the ball for Minnesota. He just can't seem to get it right this season having posted a 6.49 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in nine road starts with the 'over' cashing in six of those games. Here, he'll be starting on four days' rest for just the second time this season. The last time he did, he allowed five runs, three of them earned, and lasted just four innings in a 7-6 loss to the A's on May 16th. Maeda averages less than five innings per start so we'll likely see plenty of the Twins bullpen which owns a 4.94 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road this season. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. We won with the first five innings 'over' in his most recent start in Boston. He'll be pitching on just four days' rest, inexplicably for the eight consecutive outing on Sunday afternoon. Things haven't been going well for Keller as he has posted a 7.97 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in eight home starts with the 'over' cashing in five of those games. In nine daytime starts that WHIP rises to 1.97. The Twins will be getting their fourth look at Keller this season having already scored seven earned runs off of him in 14 1/3 innings. Keller averages just 4.4 innings per start here at home so an overworked Royals bullpen is likely to see plenty of action again today. Note that Kansas City hasn't had an off day since June 21st. The Royals 'pen owns a collective 4.16 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with just seven saves converted compared to eight blown against division opponents this season (entering yesterday's action). Take the over (10*). |
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07-04-21 | Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Brewers are absolutely rolling right now, riding an 11-game winning streak after yesterday's 11-2 victory. This isn't an ideal spot on getaway day against a left-handed starter, noting that they average just 3.6 runs per game against southpaw starters this season. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair. Freddy Peralta will take the ball for Milwaukee. He has posted a 2.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in seven road starts this season. Better still, he owns a 2.63 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in seven daytime starts. Behind Peralta is a solid Brewers bullpen that has posted a collective 3.42 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the road this season. Tyler Anderson will counter for Pittsburgh. He certainly hasn't been great this season but has pitched better at home, where he has recorded a 3.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, averaging around 5 2/3 innings per start here at PNC Park. Behind Anderson is a Pirates bullpen that has posted a 3.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with five saves converted and only two blown at home this season. Take the under (9*). |
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07-03-21 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
MLB on FOX Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Dodgers prevailed by a 10-5 score. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. Clayton Kershaw gets the nod for Los Angeles. He's off to a terrific start this season having posted a 3.86 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in eight road starts. Better still, he owns a 2.88 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 11 nighttime outings. The Nationals have never really been able to figure the veteran left-hander out. He already tossed six shutout innings against them earlier this season. Behind Kershaw is a Dodgers bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.19 WHIP at night this season. Paolo Espino will counter for Washington. He's been sharp in his last two spot starts and will be facing the Dodgers for the first time in his career on Saturday. With Espino averaging less than five innings per start we're likely to see plenty from the Nats' bullpen and that's not a bad thing. They've posted a collective 3.06 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-02-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Twins have seen the 'over' cash in five straight and seven of their last eight games overall and I expect that streak to continue on Friday night. J.A. Happ will take the ball for Minnesota. He'll be starting on just four days' rest and has struggled at the best of times on the road this season, posting a 7.98 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in six road starts with the 'over' cashing in five of those games. The Royals will be getting their third look at the left-hander this season having already scored seven earned runs in just 10 innings against him. Behind Happ is a Twins bullpen that owns a 5.64 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with just seven saves converted and five blown in night games this season. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He'll be making his third straight start on four days' rest and owns a 5.02 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in eight nighttime starts this season. The Twins have only scored three earned runs in 7 2/3 innings against him this season but in five career starts against Minnesota, Singer owns a 4.83 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. With Singer averaging less than five innings per start we're likely to see plenty of a Royals bullpen that hasn't had a day off since June 21st and has struggled to the tune of a 4.49 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with nine saves converted and seven blown at night this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-02-21 | Astros v. Indians OVER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Houston and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We'll back the 'over' in the first five innings only in this one as I look for both offenses to get going early in this contest. There's not a lot bad I can say about Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. right now. However, I will point out that he has been laboring a bit in recent starts, only able to last through the sixth inning once in his last four starts. He'll be facing an Indians lineup that has hit better at home, averaging 4.5 runs per game and not all that different of an order than the one he struggled against in a pair of starts here at Progressive Field back in 2017-18 when he was tagged for 12 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings. Sam Hentges will counter for Cleveland. He'll be starting on just four days' rest which spells trouble considering the last time he did that he gave up six earned runs in just 1 2/3 innings against the Angels. Hentges owns a 5.14 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in a pair of home starts this season. In fact, overall he has recorded a 7.77 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in six starts. You have to wonder how many turns he'll get in the rotation but for now, we'll fade him by playing the 'over' in the first five frames on Friday. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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07-01-21 | Padres v. Reds UNDER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Diego and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. |
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07-01-21 | Mariners v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. The totals are beginning to be shaded much higher for games played in Buffalo and I believe the number will prove too high on Thursday afternoon. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for Seattle. He's been terrific on the road this season, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in eight starts. Better still, he owns a 1.87 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in five daytime starts. Also note that the Jays have faced him just once, that coming back in 2019 when he tossed a complete game shutout. Behind Kikuchi is a Mariners bullpen that has been better in day games this season, recording a collective 4.06 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 10 converted saves and only five blown. Hyun-Jin Ryu hasn't been his Cy Young-contending self for much of the season but that doesn't mean he hasn't pitched well. Ryu checks in with a 3.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP at home (games split between Dunedin and Buffalo). Like Kikuchi, he's been better in day games, recording a 3.27 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He'll have the advantage of having never faced the Mariners. The Blue Jays bullpen owns a collective 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in day games this season, recording eight saves while blowing three. Take the under (10*). |
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06-30-21 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. I think we're in for a high-scoring affair between these two A.L. West rivals on Wednesday night in Oakland. Kolby Allard will get the start for the Rangers. He has struggled mightily in three career starts against the A's going back to last August, allowing 11 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings of work. In his last two outings against Oakland, Allard managed to record just two strikeouts while giving up 13 hits in only seven innings. With Allard averaging just a shade over five innings per start this season we should see plenty of the Rangers bullpen which has had a tough time on the road, posting a collective 5.62 ERA and 1.54 WHIP with just five saves converted and four blown. Chris Bassitt will counter for the A's. While he has pitched well we could see some regression from the right-hander here, noting that the Rangers have managed just two earned runs in 13 innings in their last two looks at him but have collected 13 hits and five walks. Bassitt will be making his fifth start since June 8th so he's had a pretty heavy workload this month. The A's bullpen has been effective in converting saves here at home but have only managed to record a collective 4.43 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Against division foes this season they've posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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06-30-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and St. Louis at 1:15 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series have stayed 'under' the total but I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Riley Smith gets his first start since mid-May for the D'Backs. He's been awful this season, recording a 7.36 ERA and 1.68 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in four of his five starts. The fact that he averages just 4.4 innings per start is concerning given the Snakes bullpen has been awful, entering last night's action sporting a 5.63 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with only three saves converted and eight blown on the road this season. Kwang-Hyun Kim will be making his third consecutive start on four days' rest and checks in sporting a 4.43 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in day games this season (the 'over' has cashed in four of his five daytime starts). Like Smith, Kim doesn't work deep into games, averaging just 4.5 innings per start and it's worth noting that the Cards haven't had a day off since June 21st so their 'pen has been extended. Take the over (9*). |
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06-29-21 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
American League First Five Innings Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Kansas City and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair to open this series in the Boston heat last night and I expect for another high-scoring start at least to Tuesday's contest. Brad Keller will take the ball for Kansas City. He'll inexplicably be making his seventh straight start on just four days' rest. The signs of wear are showing as he's been tagged for a whopping 20 earned runs over his last four starts, spanning just 20 1/3 innings of work. Note that he checks in sporting an ugly 6.91 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 15 nighttime starts this season. Things don't figure to improve against a Red Sox lineup that just saw him on June 18th, scoring five earned runs over five innings against him. Nick Pivetta will counter for Boston. He'll also be pitching on four days' rest after a lights out 6 2/3 innings performance against the Rays last time out. Keep in mind, he owns a 4.57 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in eight home starts this season. The Royals will be getting their second look at Pivetta in as many weeks as well, having scored three earned runs on six hits and three walks over five innings against him back on June 18th. By playing the first five innings only we should avoid factoring in two bullpens that have held up reasonably well. Much like we saw last night, I expect the starters to get roughed up early in this one. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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06-28-21 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 7 | Top | 4-14 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a low-scoring affair as the Cubs and Brewers renew their N.L. Central rivalry on Monday night in Milwaukee. Kyle Hendricks will take the ball for the Cubs. He has turned his season around after a rocky start, working at least six innings in eight straight outings and posting a sparkling 1.00 ERA and 0.67 WHIP over his last three starts. He's been at his best against divisional opponents this season, recording a 3.40 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. While the Brewers have had plenty of looks at Hendricks in recent years, they've never really been able to figure him out. He has allowed just four earned runs in his last five outings against Milwaukee, covering a span of 33 2/3 innings. Behind Hendricks is one of the best bullpens in baseball as the Cubs relief corps has posted a collective 2.88 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season, blowing only two saves while converting 10. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He's been lights out in seven home starts this season, posting a 1.62 ERA and 0.59 WHIP. In seven nighttime starts he owns a 1.74 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with the 'under' cashing at a 4-2-1 clip. The Cubs have already seen Peralta three times this season but haven't had much success, scoring just three earned runs in 15 innings. The 'under' is 3-1 in his four previous career starts against Chicago. Like the Cubs, the Brewers have a solid bullpen that has been at its best in night games this season, recording a collective 3.47 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a 10:4 converted save rate. Take the under (10*). |
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06-27-21 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating another low-scoring game between these two teams on Sunday afternoon as we have a terrific pitching matchup between Max Scherzer and Sandy Alcantara. Scherzer checks in sporting a 2.41 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in seven road starts this season. Better still, he owns a 2.01 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in six daytime starts. He's seemingly gotten stronger with each passing start against the Marlins, most recently holding them to one earned run in a complete game victory back on May 2nd. Behind Scherzer is a Nationals bullpen that has been at its best in day games this season, recording a collective 3.35 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with eight saves converted and only three blown. Sandy Alcantara is quietly having a fine season for the Marlins. He has posted a 2.19 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in eight home starts and a sparkling 0.74 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in five daytime outings. Like Scherzer, he has gotten stronger with each passing start against today's opponent, most recently allowing just one earned run over six innings against Miami last September. The Marlins bullpen has been terrific here at home this season, posting a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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06-25-21 | Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. With both of these offenses struggling a bit right now and two in-form starting pitchers on the mound, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair on Friday night. Yusei Kikuchi will start for the Mariners. He has posted a 2.85 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in seven road starts this season but due in large part to the Mariners unreliable offense, has only managed to post a 3-4 team record in those seven outings. Kikuchi checks in having allowed just one earned run in 14 innings in his last two starts. While he has struggled in two previous starts against the White Sox, both of those came during his rookie MLB season as he struggled to transition from Japan, posting an ERA north of five and a 1.50 WHIP. The Mariners bullpen hasn't been great on the road this season but has pitched well lately and comes off an off day yesterday. Carlos Rodon has quite simply been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season for the White Sox, checking in with a sparkling 1.99 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in five home starts, including a no-hitter. He's given up just three earned runs in 19 innings of work over his last three starts. Rodon has already shut the Mariners down once this season and has performed well in all four career outings against them with the 'under' cashing in each of the last three. Chicago's bullpen also comes off an off day and has recorded a collective 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP here at home this season. Take the under (9*). |
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06-24-21 | Royals v. Yankees UNDER 10 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and New York at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. This has been a high-scoring series so far with each of the first two games cruising 'over' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday afternoon, however. With a starting pitching matchup of Brad Keller and Jameson Taillon, neither of which having been able to work deep into ball games with any consistency, we should see plenty of the two bullpens in this game. That's not a bad thing for 'under' backers, giving both relief corps' have been solid this season. Keller hasn't been good this season but he has been marginally better on the road than he has at home, recording a 4.75 ERA - I realize that's not saying much. The 'under' has gone 4-2-1 in his seven road outings compared to his 5-3 o/u mark at home. Behind Keller is a Royals bullpen that has posted a 3.58 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with seven converted saves and only four blown on the road this season. Taillon has actually been solid at home this season, recording a 3.29 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in eight starts with the 'under' cashing in five of those. He faced the Royals once back in 2018 and tossed seven shutout innings. Interestingly, we have seen some continuity with the Royals lineup in recent years so that start is still worth mentioning in my opinion. The Yankees bullpen has been among the best in baseball this season, posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.18 WHIP here at home. They've posted six saves with only two blown in day games this season, recording a collective 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP along the way. Take the under (9*). |
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06-23-21 | Blue Jays v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 3-1 | Win | 104 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night and I expect more of the same on Wednesday. Robbie Ray will take the ball for the Blue Jays. The Marlins have faced him seven times over the course of his career and they've never really figured him out. In four looks at him since the start of the 2018 season they've managed to score just four earned runs in 24 innings. In 10 nighttime starts this season, Ray has posted a 3.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with the 'under' cashing at a 7-3 clip. The Blue Jays bullpen gets a bad rap, and perhaps rightfully so of late. However, they've performed reasonably well as a whole on the road this season, recording a collective 3.29 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 11 converted saves and only three blown. The Marlins will hand the ball to their ace Trevor Rogers. He has been terrific at home this season, posting a 1.93 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in five starts here in Miami. You would have to go back to May 2nd to find the last time Rogers allowed more than two earned runs in a start. He also averages just shy of six innings per start this season. Note that he has the advantage of facing the Blue Jays for the first time in his career. Behind Rogers is a Marlins bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.29 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with only four blown saves at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed our free play on the 'under' in the opener of this series last night as a hot start at the plate by the Padres proved to be our downfall. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well, however, as we have a fine pitching matchup between Clayton Kershaw and Blake Snell. Kershaw enters this start having lasted at least six innings in seven consecutive outings. He owns an outstanding 2.73 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 10 nighttime starts this season. He'll be pitching on five days' rest here. The Padres have never really been able to figure Kershaw out, somewhat incredibly scoring three earned runs or less in each of their last 23 games against him. The Dodgers bullpen has been terrific lately, posting a sub-3.00 ERA over their last seven games and check in sporting a collective 3.27 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 18 converted saves and only eight blown at night this season. Blake Snell has been a completely different pitcher at home compared to on the road this season. Here at Petco Park he owns a 1.65 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in six starts. He got lit up in his most recent outing but that was a less than ideal situation as he was pitching on four days' rest at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado no less. The Dodgers have had four looks at Snell going back to last year's playoffs. They've managed to score only seven earned runs on just 13 hits in 20 1/3 innings against him in those four games. The Padres have one of the best bullpens in baseball, checking in with a 2.72 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 16 saves and only four blown saves at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in the opener of this series last night but I do think we're set up well to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday. Freddy Peralta will get the start for the Brewers. While he has been terrific this season you do have to wonder whether some regression is on the way. Here, the D'Backs will be getting their second look at him this season and I expect them to fare better than they did on June 4th when they managed just one earned run over 7 1/3 innings. That was in Milwaukee. Here at home, the D'Backs actually average a respectable 4.9 runs per game. Note that Peralta averages just 4 2/3 innings per start on the road this season. That could spell trouble for an overworked Brewers bullpen that hasn't had a day off in over two weeks and has converted nine saves compared to seven blown on the road this season. Zac Gallen will make his second start since returning form the I.L. for the D'Backs and he'll do so on just four days' rest. He hasn't been good at the best of times here at home this season, posting a 5.62 ERA and 1.63 WHIP, averaging just four innings per start. That opens the door for a D'Backs bullpen that has struggled to the tune of a 5.21 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with only three converted saves and four blown here at home. Like the Brewers, the D'Backs have an overworked bullpen that hasn't had an off day in over two weeks. Take the over (10*). |
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06-21-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the Brewers 7-6 win over the Rockies yesterday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they continue their road trip against the reeling D'Backs in Arizona. Brett Anderson will take the ball for the Brewers. He's coming off a surprisingly strong start against the Reds, tossing seven shutout innings. That was at home, however. He's been awful on the road this season, posting a 5.47 ERA and 1.46 WHIP while averaging just 3.5 innings per start. The fact that he hasn't been able to work deep into ball games doesn't bode well given the Brewers overworked bullpen hasn't had a day off in two weeks and checks in sporting a collective 4.76 ERA and 1.59 WHIP with two converted saves to go along with two blown over their last seven games. The D'Backs have already faced Anderson once this season, chasing him after just 4 1/3 innings, scoring three earned runs on eight hits and striking out only once. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. The Brewers have seen him three times since the start of the 2019 season, including once this year. In their last two games against Kelly they've hit him hard, scoring 10 earned runs on 14 hits, including three home runs, in just 10 1/3 innings. Kelly owns a 5.19 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 11 nighttime starts this season. Working behind Kelly is an awful D'Backs bullpen that has posted a collective 5.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with only three converted saves and four blown here at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-20-21 | White Sox v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 2-8 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We've won with the Astros in each of the last two games but I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as they close out their series with the White Sox on Sunday. Dallas Keuchel will get the nod for Chicago. He's rounded into form over his last three starts, posting a stellar 1.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 19 innings of work. Keuchel has been solid in six road starts this season, recording a 3.37 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Interestingly, he's never faced his former team, the Astros, perhaps giving him a bit of an advantage here. Behind Keuchel is a White Sox bullpen that has held its own in day games this season, posting a collective 4.04 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with 10 converted saves compared to only four blown. Lance McCullers Jr. will counter for Houston. We missed with the 'under' in his last start, only thanks to extra innings (that game was 2-1 in the ninth inning but ended 6-3 to go 'over' by half a run). That was his first start back off the I.L. and while he wasn't overly effective, he pitched well enough to keep the Rangers bats at bay into the fifth inning. I expect him to get stretched out a little more here. Note that he has recorded a 3.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in six home starts this season. The White Sox faced him twice during the 2018 season and weren't able to figure him out, scoring just two earned runs in 13 innings. Of course that can be taken with a grain of salt as we're talking about a largely different White Sox lineup today. Behind McCullers is an Astros bullpen that has been lights out lately, and entered last night's game sporting a collective 3.68 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this season with seven converted saves compared to just three blown. Take the under (10*). |
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06-18-21 | A's v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This is being pegged as a potential slugfest between two hot-hitting teams in the Bronx on Friday night. I expect a different story to unfold, however. Rookie James Kaprielian will get the start for Oakland. Making your first career start at Yankee Stadium is always a big deal and I think Kaprielian will be up to the challenge. Keep in mind, his first big league start came at Fenway Park back in May and he gave up just one earned run over five innings in a 4-1 A's victory. Kaprielian has really had just one bad start in six turns in the rotation this season, that coming in Seattle back on May 31st. Consider he was making his second straight start on four days' rest in that situation. Here, he pitches on five days' rest for the third consecutive time. While Kaprielian averages just 5.4 innings per start this season that's not a major concern as the A's bullpen comes off an off day yesterday and has been terrific on the road this season, recording a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Jameson Taillon looks to bounce back from one of the worst (and shortest) outings of his career. He's actually well-positioned to do so here at home, where he has been at his best this season recording a 3.22 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in seven starts. He averages just over five innings per start at home but again, that's not a big concern as the Yankees bullpen has been effective here at home, posting a collective 3.23 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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06-17-21 | Brewers v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. With the Rockies coming off consecutive high-scoring wins over the Padres to complete an improbable series sweep here at Coors Field, I look for a much different story to unfold on Thursday. The Brewers will send Brandon Woodruff to the hill for the opener of this series. He's been phenomenal on the road this season, posting a minuscule 0.67 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in six starts this season. We shouldn't need much help from the Brewers bullpen given Woodruff averages just shy of seven innings per start on the road, but it's worth noting that it has been reliable away from home, posting a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. In night games this season, the Brewers 'pen has recorded a 3.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with nine converted saves compared to only three blown. German Marquez will counter for Colorado. He's posted a strong home-road dichotomy as usual, recording a 3.99 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in nine home starts with the Rockies winning seven of those games. Note that Marquez has worked at least six innings in six of his last seven starts. The Colorado bullpen is certainly a concern here although the Brewers aren't exactly an explosive offensive club, averaging just 3.5 runs per game on .203 hitting at night this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-16-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive relatively high-scoring games between these two teams to open this series and I expect more of the same on Wednesday afternoon. Griffin Canning will take the ball for the Angels. He has struggled on the road this season, posting a 5.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in five starts with three of those games finding their way 'over' the total. Worse still, he has recorded an 8.81 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in four daytime starts. After struggling against Canning in the 2019 season, the A's had a lot more success against him last year, facing him three times and scoring 10 earned runs in just 13 1/3 innings. With Canning averaging less than five innings per start this season we should see plenty of the Angels below-average and overworked bullpen, which allowed another three earned runs in last night's loss. L.A.'s 'pen has recorded a collective 5.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in day games this season. Left-hander Cole Irvin will counter for Oakland. The Angels will be getting their second look at him this season after scoring four earned runs off of him over six innings in a game back on May 30th. Of course, the Angels have been a far better hitting team against southpaw starters this season, hitting .275 and averaging 5.9 runs per game. Irvin has been good but certainly not great at home this season, posting a 4.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He's averaging right around 5 2/3 innings per start here in 2021. While the A's bullpen has been terrific in terms of converted save percentage here at home (12 saves converted compared to two blown), they will give up some runs. They allowed two earned runs in two frames in last night's 6-4 victory and now own a 4.54 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Marlins v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in Marlins ace Trevor Rogers' most recent start last week against the Rockies as that game totaled 15 runs. In fact, that was the third time in Rogers' last four outings that the game reached exactly 15 total runs. While I'm not bold enough to call for that level of offensive production here, I do expect this one to find its way 'over' the very reasonable total. Rogers has been terrific this season. There's really no reason to knock him here. However, I will point out that the Cardinals did get a look at Rogers back in April and managed to chase him after just four innings, scoring three runs, two of them earned, on two hits and four walks. Note that St. Louis is 9-4 against left-handed starters this season, averaging 4.6 runs per game - well north of their season average. I'll also point out that Rogers will be starting on just four days' rest for a second straight time on Tuesday. Behind Rogers is an overworked Marlins bullpen that has blown eight saves compared to only six converted on the road this season. I say overworked because the Marlins haven't had a single day off here in June. Kwang-Hyun Kim will take the ball for the Cardinals. He was just activated off the I.L. after dealing with a back injury. While Kim got off to a solid start this season, it seems that as more teams get a look at him, he has started to struggle, posting a 6.58 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over his last three starts. His last two trips to the hill have resulted in 11 and 10 total runs. In fact, the 'over' is 6-2-1 in his nine starts overall this season. With Kim averaging just a shade over 4 2/3 innings per start this season and given the fact he's returning from the I.L., we should see plenty of the Cards bullpen on Tuesday. While they've posted a tremendous save conversion rate here at home (13 saves converted with only one blown), the rest of their numbers have been pretty pedestrian, posting a collective 4.34 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. In night games this season, the Cards 'pen has recorded a 4.89 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This series opens with a sneaky-good pitching matchup on Tuesday night as the Rangers send Kyle Gibson to the hill against Lance McCullers Jr. Gibson got lit up in his first start of the season but he's been terrific ever since. He checks in sporting a 3.41 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in six road starts this season. The Astros have had four previous looks at Gibson since the start of last season but they've yet to figure him out, managing to score just three earned runs off of him over 28 innings. While the Rangers awful bullpen is a concern, that concern is somewhat muted by the fact that Gibson averages a solid six innings per start and with the Astros likely to be out in front in the latter stages of this game, we may only have to deal with a couple of innings from the Texas 'pen. Lance McCullers Jr. will counter for Houston. He has posted a 3.14 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five home starts this season and brings excellent current form into this start having recorded a 1.89 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his last three outings. In three games against McCullers since the start of last season, the Rangers have managed to score just three earned runs in 15 innings. Working behind McCullers is an Astros bullpen that has has been solid at home, posting a collective 3.99 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with seven saves converted and only three blown. Take the under (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We keep seeing low posted totals in games starter by Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler and the 'over' has now gone 6-2 over his last eight outings. I look for that trend to continue on Sunday after these two teams took turns beating each other up over the last two nights. Dane Dunning will take the ball for the Rangers. To say he's been terrible on the road would be an understatement. He has posted a 7.20 ERA and 1.80 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in four of his six outings away from home. With Dunning averaging just over four innings per start on the road, we should see plenty of a Texas bullpen that has had a tough time getting outs on the road this season, posting a collective 5.63 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. In 86 1/3 innings worked in day games, the Rangers have managed to record just three saves while blowing three other opportunities. Walker Buehler is an outstanding pitcher, there's no reason to really knock him here. However, his 12 previous starts this season have resulted in 11, 1, 17, 5, 11, 11, 10, 4, 9, 13, 17 and 8 total runs, good for an average of 9.75 runs per contest. Buehler averages between six and seven innings per start here at home. While the Dodgers bullpen has been terrific for the most part this season, they have struggled a bit in day games, recording a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with four blown saves compared to six converted. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Yankees v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams yesterday as the Phillies posted their third straight walk-off win by an 8-7 score in extra innings. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Domingo German will take the ball for the Yankees. He owns a 2.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in five road starts this season, where he's averaged six innings per start. He'll have the advantage of never facing the Phillies. Behind German is a Yankees bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 3.20 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the road this season, making good on nine save opportunities while blowing only two. Aaron Nola will counter for Philadelphia. He's been terrific at home this season, recording a 3.02 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in six starts. He's been at his best in daytime starts, posting a 2.10 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. The Phillies bullpen has been in excellent form lately and has recorded a collective 3.93 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in day games this season. With Nola giving the Phillies over 6 1/3 innings per start in daytime outings this season, we may not need too much help from the Philadelphia 'pen here. Also note that in his lone previous start against the Yankees, Nola allowed just one earned run in six innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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06-11-21 | Royals v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams last night with just seven total runs scored. I'm expecting a similar story to unfold on Friday night. Brady Singer will take the ball for the Royals. His numbers certainly aren't great but he's been saddled with some bad luck as well. Note that Singer has posted a 34.3% hard-hit ball percentage this season - nearly 5% below the MLB average. He's also recorded a ground ball rate north of 50%. However, his BAbip is .345, contributing to his ugly ERA which is approaching five. Note that he will have the advantage of facing the A's for the first time on Friday. Also note that the A's average less than four runs per game here at home. With Singer averaging less than five innings per start, we should see plenty of the Royals bullpen and that's not a bad thing as they've collectively posted a 3.51 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with just three blown saves compared to seven converted on the road this season. Cole Irvin will counter for Oakland. While his 4.72 ERA at home leaves a lot to be desired he has posted a terrific 1.20 WHIP in his seven home starts. Note that he's been at his best at night, recording a 3.31 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. In fact, the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 in his six nighttime starts this season. Behind Irvin is an A's bullpen that has under-achieved a bit but has still managed to post a respectable 3.83 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 112 2/3 innings logged at night. The A's relief corps has racked up nine converted saves with only one blown here at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-11-21 | Astros v. Twins OVER 11 | 6-4 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This may look like an exorbitantly high total for a game not played at Coors Field but a deeper look indicates why and I'm confident we'll see these two teams find a way 'over' the lofty number. Jose Urquidy will take the ball for Houston. The Twins will be getting their second look at him since last September after he held them to just one earned run over 4 1/3 ok innings last fall. Urquidy has had an up and down start to the season but has generally been subpar on the road, where he owns a 4.79 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 26 1/3 innings of work. He averages just 5 1/3 innings per start away from home which means we should see plenty of an Astros bullpen that got extended in Boston last night and owns a collective 4.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP with eight blown saves (compared to only six converted) on the road this season. Matt Shoemaker will inexplicably get another turn in the rotation for the Twins. He's been awful this season. In seven home starts he has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. For the season he's averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start which spells trouble as the Twins bullpen has been overworked over the last week or so, pitching a collective 31 2/3 innings over their last seven games. Note that the Minnesota 'pen has struggled at night this season, posting a collective 5.67 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with only four converted saves. Take the over (10*). |
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06-11-21 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Colorado's blowout loss in Miami last night and I'll come right back with the same play here as the Rockies continue their road trip in Cincinnati. Kyle Freeland will make his fourth start of the season for the Rockies. He's struggled so far, recording a 6.23 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in 13 innings of work. Perhaps most concerning is the fact that he's yet to last more than five innings in a start, which opens the door for an extended night from the Rockies awful bullpen. Colorado's relief corps entered last night's game sporting a collective 4.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the road this season. Tyler Mahle will counter for the Reds. He pitched relatively well against the Rockies earlier this season but I expect them to do a little more damage here as they get their second look at the right-hander in less than a month. Mahle owns an ugly 7.23 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four home starts this season, where he averages only 4 2/3 innings per start. That spells trouble given the Cincinnati bullpen has recorded a collective 7.17 ERA and 1.53 WHIP (prior to another poor performance yesterday) at home this season, with only two-of-five converted save opportunities. Take the over (10*). |
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06-11-21 | Giants v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. NOTE: Our play on the 'under' 3.5 runs first five innings in this same matchup was rained-out last night. Now with both teams playing just their second game in the last four days we have two rested bullpens and I'm comfortable playing the full-game 'under' rather than the first five innings only. I like the way this one sets up as a low-scoring affair with the Giants sending pleasant surprise Anthony DeSclafani to the hill against Nationals ace Max Scherzer. DeSclafani has come out of nowhere (Cincinnati actually) to go 5-2 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.11 WHIP out of the gates this season. He's been at his best on the road, where he has posted a 2.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in seven starts, with four of those staying 'under' the total. Best of all, he has recorded a sparkling 2.17 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in nine nighttime starts. While he has had mixed results in his career against the Nats', there's no decisive edge here as he hasn't faced them since 2019. The Giants bullpen has been outstanding lately, recording a collective 1.27 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over their last seven games and as noted above, while previous extended having worked 35 1/3 innings over that seven-game stretch, as a result of last night's postponement they've now had two out of the last four days off. Max Scherzer has been doing 'Max Scherzer things' for the Nats' so far this season, posting a 2.22 ERA and 0.82 WHIP through his first 12 outings, with the 'under' cashing in nine of those. Scherzer has not surprisingly been at his best at home where he has recorded a 1.98 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in 41 innings of work. Washington's bullpen has been at its best here at home where it has posted a collective 3.59 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with only two blown save opportunities. Take the under (9*). |
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06-10-21 | Rockies v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 4-11 | Win | 104 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been involved in a number of relatively low-scoring games recently. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. The Rockies will hand the ball to Chi Chi Gonzalez. He's been awful on the road this season, posting a 6.20 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in five starts, spanning 24 2/3 innings of work. Noting that he averages less than five innings per start away from home, we should see plenty of a Rockies bullpen that has posted a collective 4.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the road this season. Colorado's 'pen has converted just 10 saves this season while blowing nine. Marlins ace Trevor Rogers will counter. He's been excellent this season, however, it's worth noting that two of his last three starts have totaled a whopping 15 runs. Note that Rogers actually only averages 5 2/3 innings per start, and slightly less than that here at home. He'll be facing a Rockies lineup that has been better against southpaw starters, hitting .270 as a team. Miami's bullpen has eight blown saves compared to only seven converted in night games this season and has posted a collective 5.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over its last seven contests. While I do like the Marlins to prevail in this one, I think it could be higher-scoring than most expect. Take the over (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a somewhat surprising low-scoring contest between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Veteran left-hander Brett Anderson will take the ball for the Brewers. He owns a 4.63 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season and the Reds will be getting their fifth look at him since the start of last season. Note that he's allowed six home runs against them in those previous four starts. Anderson averages less than four innings per start on the road this season so we'll likely see plenty of a Brewers bullpen that while solid overall this season has really struggled against division opponents, posting a collective 5.01 ERA and 1.41 WHIP entering last night's contest. They got stretched out last night as Adrian Houser could give the Brew Crew just 5 1/3 innings in that 5-1 victory. Vladimir Gutierrez will get his third start of the season for the Reds. He's been fine through two starts but don't count on him to work deep into this ball game. Note that he's lasted just five innings in each of his previous two outings. That opens the door for a dreadful Reds bullpen that has recorded a collective 7.21 ERA and 1.48 WHIP here at home this season (entering last night's game), with just two converted save opportunities. The Brewers offense while subpar for much of the season, has come around a bit lately, averaging right around five runs per game over the last week. Take the over (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are better known for their offense but it's been their pitching that has really shone so far this season. Robbie Ray will take the ball for Toronto on Tuesday. He checks in sporting a 3.06 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his last three starts. While he does own an ERA north of four on the road, the 'under' has still cashed in three of his five outings away from home. The White Sox have of course dominated left-handed starting pitching in recent years, however it's worth noting that they've scored a grand total of just nine runs in their last three games against southpaw starters. The 'under' is actually 10-7 when they face left-handed starters this season. Behind Ray is a Jays bullpen that has been terrific on the road this season, posting a collective 2.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, converting nine saves while blowing only two. Carlos Rodon will counter for Chicago. The left-hander has been outstanding this season, particularly here at home where he owns a 2.02 ERA and a minuscule 0.56 WHIP in four starts, spanning 26 2/3 innings. The 'under' has gone 4-2 in Rodon's six nighttime starts, when he has recorded a 1.23 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Note that the Blue Jays haven't seen Rodon since the 2018 season and in two previous games against him scored just four earned runs in 13 1/3 innings. Behind Rodon is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a collective 3.46 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (9*). |
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06-08-21 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair as the Braves and Phillies renew their rivalry in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. Drew Smyly will take the ball for Atlanta. To say he's been awful lately would be an understatement as he has posted a 7.47 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over his last three outings. Of course, that's about par for the course for Smyly in nighttime starts this season, when he has recorded a 7.05 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, with the 'over' cashing at a 5-1 clip in his six outings. Now he faces a Phillies lineup that will be getting a second look at him this season after they tagged him for five earned runs in five innings in a wild 7-6 Sunday night victory earlier this season. Behind Smyly is a Braves bullpen that has posted a collective 5.19 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road this season. Aaron Nola will counter for Philadelphia. He's been terrific at home this season but much of his success has been in the daytime. In eight night starts this season he has recorded a 4.84 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. The biggest issue here is that the Braves will be seeing Nola for the third time this season. In their second look at him they chased him after he allowed five earned runs in four innings. Nola has failed to last more than five innings in three of his last five outings and that means we should see plenty of a Phillies bullpen that has recorded a 4.81 ERA and 1.35 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-07-21 | Royals v. Angels OVER 9 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We saw a low-scoring game involving the Royals yesterday as they fell by a 2-1 score in the finale of a four-game set against the Twins. Prior to that the 'over' had gone 7-0-2 over their last nine contests. I expect a return to form here as they head to Anaheim to take on the Angeles. Jackson Kowar will make his highly-anticipated debut for Kansas City on Monday. Of course, in today's MLB it's unlikely we'll see the Royals stretch out one of their top prospects too much in his first big league start. That likely leaves plenty of work for a Kansas City bullpen that owns a collective 4.64 ERA and 1.49 WHIP at night this season. Keep in mind, the Angels have been a much better offensive team here at home, where they average nearly 5.5 runs per game this season. Dylan Bundy will counter for Los Angeles. The wheels have fallen off for Bundy following a strong start to the season and he's likely to struggle again here as the Royals get their second look at him this season. Bundy has posted an awful 7.94 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home this season. He's been hit hard in four nighttime starts as well, recording a 6.75 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. With Bundy averaging just 4.5 innings per start here at home we should see plenty of the Angels bullpen that got lit up yesterday after entering the game sporting a collective 4.82 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with six blown saves compared to seven converted here at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-06-21 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll call for a high-scoring game at Guaranteed Rate Field on Sunday afternoon. The White Sox will be getting their second look at Tigers right-hander Jose Urena this season. He did last seven innings in a 5-2 victory against them back in late April but it's not as if he was dominant. Urena gave up seven hits, walked three and struck out only two over those seven frames. Note that he owns a 5.34 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in six daytime starts this season. Likewise, the Tigers 'pen has struggled in daytime appearances, recording a collective 4.90 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Worse still, the Detroit bullpen entered yesterday's action sporting a 6.46 ERA and 1.66 WHIP on the road this season. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. The Tigers will be seeing him for the fourth time since last August. Cease has posted an ERA near eight to go along with a 1.76 WHIP over his last three outings. He also owns a less than impressive 1.60 WHIP in four daytime starts this season. The White Sox bullpen has posted a collective 4.59 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in day games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-05-21 | Indians v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 10-4 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Baltimore at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up well as a low-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon at Camden Yards. Aaron Civale will take the ball for the Indians. He's been solid in six road starts this season, posting a 3.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Note that he'll have the advantage of facing the Orioles for the first time in his career on Saturday. Behind Civale is a bullpen that has recorded a collective 2.52 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the road this season converting 11 saves compared to just one blown save. IN day games, they've been even better, posting a 1.89 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. John Means will counter for Baltimore. Means of course threw a no-hitter in Seattle earlier this season. He owns a sparkling 1.60 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in six daytime starts this season. He has faced the Indians twice in his career, allowing just three earned runs in 10 innings, however they haven't got a look at him since the 2019 season. Behind Means is an Orioles bullpen that has been at its best in the daytime, recording a collective 3.69 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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06-04-21 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Friday. This one sets up nicely as a high-scoring affair after last night's low-scoring 4-2 Reds victory in the series-opener. Luis Castillo will somewhat inexplicably get another turn in the Reds rotation despite his massive struggles this season. Castillo has posted an 8.73 ERA and 1.81 WHIP on the road this season lasting less than five innings per start. The Cards have already seen him twice this season, lighting him up to the tune of 12 earned runs on 14 hits in just 8 1/3 innings. Behind Castillo is a dreadful Reds bullpen that entered last night's game sporting a collective 8.28 ERA and 1.88 WHIP on the road this season. Kwang-Hyun Kim will counter for St. Louis. He's labored through his last three starts, posting a 5.14 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. He has actually pitched quite well at home, however, and those last three outings came on the road. But here's my concern; Kim averages just under 4 2/3 innings per start this season. The Cardinals bullpen has not been good, entering last night's game with a 6.21 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over their last seven contests. They own a 5.11 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at night this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-04-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This is one of the highest totals on Friday's MLB board but it's high for a reason (a number of reasons actually). Last night's series opener was of the high-scoring variety as the Royals prevailed by a 6-5 score. I'm anticipating more of the same here. Matt Shoemaker will get the nod for the visiting Twins. He's not set up well here as he faces the Royals for the third time this season, having had very little success against them, allowing 13 earned runs on 14 hits over just 7 2/3 innings. Shoemaker has pitched better on the road than he has at home this season but that's not really saying much. The 'over' has still gone a perfect 3-0 in his three road outings. Behind Shoemaker is a Twins bullpen that has posted a collective 5.79 ERA and 1.56 WHIP at night this season. On the road, Twins relievers have recorded a 5.16 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, converting just six of 10 save opportunities. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. He'll be facing the Twins for the third time this season as well. He hasn't struggled quite as badly as Shoemaker but has still been hit hard, allowing five earned runs on 11 hits over 9 1/3 innings. He's been dreadful in five home starts this season, recording an 8.10 ERA and 1.85 WHIP, with the 'over' cashing in three of those five outings. The Royals bullpen has pitched well lately but still owns a less than impressive 4.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP while converting only seven of 12 save opportunities here at home this season. Take the over (9*). |
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06-04-21 | Dodgers v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. This matchup obviously features plenty of big bats and I expect Friday's series-opener to play out accordingly in spite of the solid starting pitching matchup. Julio Urias will take the ball for the Dodgers. It's worth noting that while his overall numbers are terrific, he has posted a less than impressive 4.58 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over his last three starts. He has also recorded a 4.33 ERA in six nighttime starts. His road numbers are admittedly terrific, however, much of his success away from home came early in the season when he faced the Rockies, Mariners and Brewers - three light-hitting teams - in his first three road starts. It is worth pointing out that his last three road starts have totaled 20, 11 and 16 runs. The Braves did get a chance to see Urias for the first time last October in a start where he lasted just five innings. Behind Urias is a Dodgers bullpen that has posted a collective 4.80 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the road this season, with an equal number of saves and blown saves (7). Meanwhile, Ian Anderson will start for Atlanta. Like Urias, his overall numbers are terrific. However, I am a a little concerned that he's facing the Dodgers for the third time since last October (he started twice in their playoff series last year). Note that Los Angeles gave him some trouble, collecting six hits and two earned runs to go along with seven walks, with Anderson working only seven innings total in those two starts. With Anderson averaging less than six innings per start this season we should see plenty of an Atlanta bullpen that entered yesterday's action having posted a collective 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with six blown saves compared to only four successfully converted at home this season. Note that Braves relievers have recorded a 4.68 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 132 2/3 innings logged at night this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-02-21 | Rangers v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. Even extra innings couldn't get the final score even close to the total in last night's series-opener between these two teams at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Here, I don't expect the same problem. Jordan Lyles will take the ball for Texas. He has been downright awful in nighttime starts this season, posting a 6.55 ERA and 1.57 WHIP with the 'over' cashing at a 4-3 clip. Given he's averaging just a shade over five innings per start this season that spells trouble as the Rangers bullpen has been terrible on the road this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 5.50 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Antonio Senzatela will counter for Colorado. He owns a 4.35 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at home this season and a 6.91 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in nighttime starts. Like Lyles, he has struggled to work deep into games meaning we should see plenty from a Rockies bullpen that has posted a 6.07 ERA and 1.61 WHIP with five blown saves at home this season (entering last night's contest). Take the over (10*). |
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06-02-21 | Marlins v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game as the Blue Jays returned to Sahlen Field in Buffalo and delivered a 5-1 victory over the Marlins last night. Here, I look for a different story to unfold. The Marlins will hand the ball to Pablo Lopez. While he's been terrific at home this season, he's been awful on the road, posting a 5.13 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 26 1/3 innings of work. Of course, the Blue Jays are fully capable of teeing off on him here on Wednesday. Alek Manoah will counter for Toronto. He tossed six quality innings of shutout ball at Yankee Stadium in his big league debut last week. Perhaps we see a bit of a letdown off that adrenaline-fueled performance here, however. Note that behind Manoah is a Jays bullpen that entered last night's game having posted a collective 4.19 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over their last seven games. With the Marlins once again getting healthier I do think they're a strong candidate for a breakout offensive performance following a down stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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06-02-21 | Mets v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night, albeit aided by extra innings, as the D'Backs prevailed by a 6-5 score. I'm anticipating more of the same on Wednesday as the Mets send David Peterson to the hill against D'Backs veteran Madison Bumgarner. Peterson has struggled on the road this season, posting a 5.55 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. To make matters worse, the D'Backs will be getting their second look at the left-hander after chasing him after just 1 2/3 innings in an eventual 5-4 win back on May 7th. With Peterson averaging less than five innings per start this season we're likely to see plenty of a Mets bullpen that just hasn't been the same on the road this season, posting a collective 4.78 ERA and 1.44 WHIP before giving up another two earned runs in 3 1/3 innings last night. Bumgarner got off to a fine start for the D'Backs this season but the wheels have come off lately as he has posted an 8.36 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over his last three outings. He owns a 5.66 ERA and 1.36 WHIP here at home this season and like Peterson, hasn't shown the ability to work deep into games, averaging just over five innings per start. The Arizona 'pen has recorded a collective 5.27 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Angels v. Giants OVER 6.5 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday as the Giants pulled away late for a 6-1 victory. Of course that result would actually be enough to get Tuesday's game 'over' the very low posted total. I believe it will prove to be too low. Andrew Heaney gets the start for the Angels. We won with the 'over' in his most recent outing against the Rangers. He has posted an inflated 7.71 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over his last three starts and has seen the 'over' cash at an 8-1 clip in his nine starts to date this season. Given the fact that he averages just five innings per start we're likely to see plenty from the Angels bullpen in this one. They have posted a collective 4.72 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the road this season (entering yesterday's action). They gave up another two earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in yesterday's loss. Left-hander Alex Wood will take the ball for the Giants. While he has been solid overall this season I will point out that the Angels are averaging 5.3 runs per game against southpaw starters this season with those games totaling an average of 11.2 runs. Wood's home numbers do jump off the page but just one reason for caution (and why my play on the Giants is of the 8* variety), three of his four home outings have come against the Marlins, Rockies and Rangers - three subpar offensive clubs, particularly on the road. We likely won't need much from the Angels offense to help this one 'over' the low total. Take the over (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Pirates v. Royals OVER 8 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in this matchup last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Tuesday. William Crowe will get another turn in the rotation for the Buccos. He's been generally awful this season but particularly bad in three nighttime starts in which he has posted a 7.94 ERA and 2.12 WHIP. Crowe is averaging just over four innings per start which means we'll likely see plenty from a Pirates bullpen that has posted a collective 4.59 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Brady Singer gets the start for the Royals and he hasn't been much better than Crowe. Singer has posted a 6.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over his last three starts and checks in sporting a 4.84 ERA and 1.57 WHIP at night. Like Crowe, he generally doesn't work deep into ball games, averaging fewer than five innings per start. The Royals bullpen has been fairly solid lately but still entered last night's action sporting a 4.61 ERA and 1.42 WHIP here at home this season and a 4.88 ERA and 1.56 WHIP at night. Take the over (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday as the Twins prevailed 3-2 in extra innings. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Michael Pineda will get the call for the Twins. He was sharp against the Orioles in his most recent start last week and his overall numbers are solid this season. With that being said, he's certainly prone to giving up the long ball, having been tagged for nine home runs in eight starts this season, including seven in his last five starts. Now he pitches at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. His recent numbers against the O's are positive but he hasn't faced them here in Baltimore since 2016. In six career starts at Camden Yards he has been tagged for 20 earned runs in 29 1/3 innings. Working behind Pineda is a Twins bullpen that owns a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.53 WHIP (entering yesterday's action) on the road this season. Bruce Zimmermann remains in the Orioles rotation only because they have no better options right now. To say that he's struggled would be an understatement. He owns a 5.52 ERA and 1.84 WHIP here at home and like Pineda, has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing home runs in four straight and eight of nine career big league starts. Note that he'll be facing a Twins club that actually produces better on the road, where it averages north of five runs per game this season. With Zimmermann unlikely to work deep into this game that means we should see plenty from the O's down-trodden bullpen, which entered yesterday's game having posted an 8.31 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over its last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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05-31-21 | Pirates v. Royals OVER 8 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Chad Kuhl - one of the most hittable starters in all of baseball in early April - returns to the Pirates rotation following a stint on the I.L. and I look for him to struggle against a Royals club that lit him up last September. In that start in the latter stages of last season, Kuhl allowed a whopping nine earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings of work. Before hitting the injured list this season, Kuhl had posted a 6.32 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in four starts spanning 15 2/3 innings of work. While the Pirates bullpen has pitched well lately, most of that success came during a six-game homestand. The Buccos 'pen has posted a less than impressive 4.63 ERA on the road this season, not to mention a 4.59 ERA and 1.40 WHIP under the lights. Mike Minor will counter for Kansas City. The Pirates will be getting their second look at the left-hander this season after knocking him around for four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in a wild 9-6 Royals victory back on April 28th. Note that Minor has been at his worst at home this season where he has recorded a 6.43 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with the 'over' cashing at a 4-1 clip in his five starts. Likewise, the Royals 'pen has struggled at home this season to the tune of a 4.61 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with four blown saves along the way. Take the over (10*). |
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05-29-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in this matchup last night as Jordan Lyles and Justus Sheffield surprisingly pitched well and the bullpens took care of the rest in a 3-2 Mariners victory. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. Mike Foltynewicz will take the ball for Texas on Saturday. The Mariners will be getting their second look at the veteran right-hander this season after collecting six hits and four earned runs against him in 6 2/3 innings in a 5-4 loss back on May 7th. He has struggled to the tune of a 6.31 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season, averaging just a shade over five innings per start. That spells trouble with a Rangers bullpen that entered last night's game having posted a collective 5.76 ERA and 1.61 WHIP on the road this season likely to get extended work here. Justin Dunn counters for Seattle. He has been pitching reasonably well lately after an inconsistent start to the season. However, the Rangers did see him three times last season and should improve on their numbers against him here, noting that Dunn is in line for some regression here at home where he's managed to record a solid 3.45 ERA but a less than impressive 1.47 WHIP. Dunn is averaging only five innings per start this season so like the Rangers, the Mariners will likely be forced to employ their bullpen for a number of innings here, and that 'pen entered last night's game having posted a collective 6.00 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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05-29-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 8 | 4-0 | Loss | -126 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We've already cashed a couple of daytime 'overs' here in Oakland this season and we'll go back to the well for another similar setup here. Alex Cobb will take the ball for the Angels. He's pitched well over his last two starts but both of those came at home. It's been a different story on the road where he has posted an 8.70 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in three starts this season. Of course, working behind Cobb is a horrible Angels bullpen that entered last night's game sporting a 6.66 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over their last seven contests. Frankie Montas will get the start for the A's. He's had an up and down start to the season. Here at home, though, it's been mostly down as Montas has recorded a 6.17 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 35 innings of work. The Angels will be getting their third look at Montas since the start of last season, chasing him before the end of the fifth inning in the two previous games. The A's bullpen has held up well so far in this series, but entered last night's action with a collective 4.67 ERA and 1.34 WHIP here at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-28-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair in the opener of this series last night as the Mariners cruised to a 5-0 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday, however. Jordan Lyles will take the ball for Texas. The Mariners will be getting their fourth look at the veteran right-hander since last August and they've teed off on him so far, to the tune of 16 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings. While Lyles has pitched reasonably well over his last few starts he still checks in sporting an inflated 6.99 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in night starts this season, averaging less than five innings per start. That spells trouble considering the Rangers bullpen has been a mess, entering last night's action with a collective 5.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP on the road this season. They proceeded to allow three earned runs on five hits over four innings in last night's game. Justus Sheffield will counter for Seattle. Like the Mariners with Lyles, the Rangers will be seeing Sheffield for the fourth time since last August. They've already faced him once this season, scoring five earned runs on 10 hits over five innings in a 10-2 victory on May 9th. Sheffield has really struggled lately, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over his last three starts with the 'over' cashing in all three of those. Like Lyles, he has also struggled at night, recording a 6.00 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 27 innings. Prior to last night's contest, the Mariners bullpen had posted a collective 6.03 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over their last seven games. Expect plenty of offense on the board tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-27-21 | Orioles v. White Sox OVER 9 | 1-5 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Orioles and White Sox open their four-game series in Chicago on Thursday night. Bruce Zimmermann will inexplicably get another turn in the rotation for the O's. He's been awful this season and at his absolute worst on the road where he has posted a 6.87 ERA and 1.64 WHIP with the 'over' cashing in three of his four starts. The White Sox success at the plate against left-handed starting pitching has been well-documented. They're 10-3 against lefties this season, averaging a whopping 7.8 runs per game and hitting .292 as a team. With Zimmermann unlikely to work deep into this game (he averages less than five innings per start), that opens the door for a struggling Orioles bullpen that entered yesterday's action having posted a collective 9.52 ERA and 2.38 WHIP over their last seven games. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. He's coming off a rocky outing - albeit a tough one - on the road against the Yankees last Sunday. Cease has now failed to last six innings in any of his last three starts. He's averaging five innings per start this season. Behind him is a White Sox 'pen that has also struggled, posting a collective 4.34 ERA and 1.82 WHIP over their last seven games before giving up three more late runs in a 4-0 loss to the Cardinals yesterday. Chicago has five blown saves at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-26-21 | Royals v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a very low-scoring contest between these two teams last night and I expect more of the same on Wednesday. Left-hander Mike Minor will get the start for Kansas City. He's been a different pitcher on the road compared to at home this season, posting a 3.43 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with the Royals winning all four of his road outings. Note that Minor will have the advantage of facing the Rays for the first time. They check in hitting just .200 as a team against southpaw starters this season. Behind Minor is a Royals bullpen that has really settled down lately, entering last night's action having posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over their last seven games before tossing two scoreless frames in Monday's victory. Tyler Glasnow will counter for Tampa Bay. He's faced the Royals just once in his career, that start coming back in 2018. Glasnow has been lights out here at Tropicana Field this season, posting a 2.20 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 28 2/3 innings of work. He averages more than six innings per start so the Rays bullpen isn't as big of a concern but on that note, Tampa Bay relievers have been among the best in baseball this season, recording a collective 2.94 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home this season, blowing just one save. Take the under (10*). |
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05-26-21 | Braves v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday The Braves got the better of the Red Sox in the opener of this series last night, notching their fourth straight victory and handing Boston its second loss in a row following a four-game winning streak. That was a low-scoring contest with just four total runs scored. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however. Drew Smyly will get the start for Atlanta. He has pitched reasonably well on the road this season, posting a 3.27 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, but his three quality road outings have come against the Nationals (twice) and Brewers - two subpar offensive clubs. In his other road start he was lit up by the Blue Jays, allowing five earned runs in just four innings in a 13-5 loss. Note that Boston checks in 10-5 against left-handed starters this season. Behind Smyly is a Braves bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a collective 4.92 ERA and 1.61 WHIP on the road this season. Nick Pivetta will counter for Boston. He's been a pleasant surprise for the Red Sox, going 5-0 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He's been at his best here at Fenway Park where he owns a 3.17 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with the Sox winning four of his five starts. However, here he'll face a Braves team that should be quite familiar with him from his days with the N.L. East rival Phillies. Pivetta's last three starts against the Braves have resulted in 17, 11 and 10 total runs. Pivetta generally only works around five innings per start and while the Red Sox bullpen has been solid, it will face a tough challenge against a deep Braves lineup that is seeing the ball well right now. Take the over (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair as the streaking Rangers head to Anaheim to face the Angels on Tuesday night. Left-hander Hyeon-Jong Yang will take the ball for the Rangers. He was terrific in his most recent start, allowing just three hits and two earned runs over 5 1/3 innings against the Yankees. Here, he'll face an Angels team that has performed well against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 5.3 runs per game on .268 hitting. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-3 in the Angels 12 games against southpaw starters. Yang hasn't shown the ability to work deep into ball games which opens the door for a Rangers bullpen that has posted a collective 5.67 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the road this season. Texas will be getting its third look at Angels starter Andrew Heaney since the start of last season and it has enjoyed success against him, knocking the left-hander around for 11 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings. The Rangers are 12-5 against southpaw starters this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game on .254 hitting. Heaney has postd a 6.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in four home starts this season with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0. Note that Heaney is averaging less than five innings per start this season which means we're likely to see plenty of an Angels bullpen that has posted a 5.00 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, not to mention six blown saves, at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring contest between these two teams last night in Dunedin and I expect more of the same on Saturday. As expected, games played here in Dunedin have been generally high-scoring this season with the 'over' cashing at an 11-7 clip and an average total of nearly 11 runs. Shane McClanahan will take the ball for the Rays on Saturday. As opponents get more tape on the left-hander we're starting to see him struggle. Over his last two starts he has allowed seven earned runs on 10 hits over just 9 1/3 innings of work after he had given up only two earned runs in eight innings in his first two big league outings. The Jays are rolling along offensively right now having scored seven runs or more in four of their last five games. Robbie Ray will counter for Toronto. He's made great strides in terms of his command this season, issuing only two walks over his last five starts after handing out nine free passes in his first two outings. However, it seems to have come at the expense of his ability to keep the ball in the park. Ray has been lit up for 10 home runs in his last five starts, spanning 30 1/3 innings. The Rays have exploded offensively of late, scoring seven runs or more in six consecutive games. Take the over (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-16 | Win | 103 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Mariners offense is coming off a miserable series against the Tigers which included being no-hit for the second time this season. Perhaps a change of scenery will serve them well. They'll be getting their third look at Padres starter Chris Paddack since last August. The last time they faced him here in San Diego they touched him up for six earned runs over just five innings in an 8-3 victory. Note that the 'over' is 11-2 in Paddack's last 13 starts with the total set between 7.0 and 8.5 runs with those games totaling an average of 10.6 runs. Chris Flexen will take the ball for Seattle. The 'over' has cashed at a perfect 8-0 clip in his eight career road starts as an underdog with those contests reaching an average total of 13.0 runs. Both bullpens are solid, but with neither starter showing the ability to work deep into ball games (Flexen averages around 5 2/3 innings per start while Paddack lasts just 4 1/3 innings on average), there's a good chance they get over-extended in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9 | 7-5 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. First, it's certainly worth pointing out that these two bullpens have been lights out over the last week or so with Detroit's 'pen recording a collective 2.11 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over its last seven games and Kansas City's relief corps having posted a 0.78 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over that same stretch. Note also that the 'under' has gone 25-10 in Royals starter Mike Minor's last 35 starts with the total set between 8.5 and 10.0 runs, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 7.6 runs. Tigers starter Jose Urena has struggled in his last two outings but both of those came at home. He's been a better pitcher on the road, recording a 2.45 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. The Royals still aren't hitting, averaging just 3.7 runs per game over their last seven contests. Meanwhile, the Tigers check in averaging a paltry 2.7 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. The 'under' has cashed at a 10-2 clip when the Tigers face southpaw starters this season with those games averaging just 7.0 total runs. Take the under (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Red Sox v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 11-3 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Red Sox are coming off a high-scoring come-from-behind victory over the Blue Jays last night while the Phillies were shut out by the Marlins and have now scored one run or less in four of their last seven games. Note that the 'under' has gone 25-11 in Phillies starter Aaron Nola's 36 career starts as a favorite priced at -150 or higher, as is the case here at the time of writing, with those games totaling an average of just 7.0 runs. Nola has faced the Red Sox three times previously, allowing just four earned runs in 22 innings of work with the 'under' cashing in all three of those games. Martin Perez is off to a somewhat surprising strong start for the Red Sox this season. He has recorded a 35.3% hard-hit ball percentage through 39 2/3 innings after turning in an incredible 29.7% hard-hit ball rate last year. Perez hasn't fared particularly well in three previous outings against the Phillies with an ERA north of four and a 1.30 WHIP, however, as I mentioned he's catching them at the right time here. Both bullpens have performed admirably of late, with the Red Sox relief corps entering last night's game sporting a 3.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over theirs last seven games and the Phillies 'pen having posted a sparkling 2.02 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over that same stretch. Take the under (9*). |
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05-20-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. We've already seen 20 runs cross home plate in the first two games of this series and I expect more of the same on Thursday afternoon. Note that the Astros check in averaging 5.4 runs per game in day games this season and north of six runs per contest over the last week. Meanwhile, the A's average 5.0 runs per game in day contests and prior to getting shut down by Zack Greinke last night, they had plated six runs or more in three of their last four games. Here, the A's will get their third look at Astros starter Luis Garcia since last September. Garcia was solid in his first outing against the A's but in his next he didn't record a single out, issuing three walks before allowing a grand slam in the first inning. Note that Garcia owns a 4.61 ERA on the road this season where he averages fewer than five innings per start. That opens the door for an Astros bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.30 ERA on the road this season. Cole Irvin has posted solid overall numbers for the A's this season but again, there's some familiarity here as the Astros will face him for the third time this season. They've already touched him up for 12 hits and eight earned runs in 9 2/3 innings of work. Note that the A's bullpen entered last night's game having recorded a collective 7.30 ERA against division opponents this season and a 4.59 ERA here at home. Take the over (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a one-sided game between these two teams to open this series last night, with just seven total runs scored - all coming from the Padres. While I look for San Diego to turn in another fine showing at the plate, I think Colorado can help us along in terms of getting 'over' the low total on Tuesday as well. These same two pitchers, Austin Gomber and Blake Snell, matched up last week in Colorado with the Rockies prevailing by a 3-2 score but I expect a different story to unfold here. Gomber has already logged a lot of innings in his first year with the Rockies and we've seen a strong home-road dichotomy play out. In four road outings, Gomber has posted an ugly 7.56 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, averaging just five innings per start. That opens the door for the Rockies dreadful bullpen to potentially be forced into extended duty on Tuesday, noting that unit entered last night's action sporting a collective 9.39 ERA over their last seven games. Gomber continues to struggle with his command having posted a walk rate north of 12% while also giving up a ton of fly balls, to the tune of a 30.9% fly ball rate - more than 7% higher than the MLB average. Blake Snell has had his own issues with command, also recording an inflated walk rate - a staggering 15.2%! Snell has been terrific here at home, posting a 2.29 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but averaging less than five innings per start. It's certainly worth noting that the Rockies have gone 6-4 against left-handed starting pitching (compared to 9-23 against righties). Colorado is hitting .282 against southpaw starters this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-17-21 | Indians v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. There are a number of factors that lead me to believe we're in for a high-scoring affair in Anaheim on Monday night. The Indians will certainly be eager to bring an end to their three-game skid and get back on track at the plate. This looks like an ideal spot to do just that against a poor Angels pitching staff. Patrick Sandoval will get the start for Los Angeles on Monday - his first of the season after being used as a long reliever. Sandoval has yet to figure it out at the big league level, posting a career 5.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. In 7 1/3 innings of relief duty this season he has recorded a 55.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 92.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably north of the MLB average. He's struggled to keep the ball in the park throughout his career, posting an ugly 5.3% home run rate, which is 1.8% higher than the MLB average. Rookie Sam Hentges will counter for Cleveland. He was never able to perform particularly well at the minor league level and now his struggles have carried over to the big leagues as well. Opponents are hitting .316 off of Hentges in 13 2/3 innings this season and he's posted a 32.6% fly ball rate and 6.4% home run rate. He was bailed out time and time again by the Cubs in his last start but I don't think he'll be so fortunate here. Both teams possess struggling bullpens. The Indians got off to a great start in that department this season but have taken a negative turn lately. Meanwhile, the Angels 'pen has been awful from the drop here in 2021. Take the over (10*). |
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Sean Murphy MLB Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-09-21 | Reds v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
08-08-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
08-07-21 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 10 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
08-05-21 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
08-05-21 | Twins v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
08-05-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 0-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
08-04-21 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | 3-10 | Loss | -116 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
08-03-21 | Braves v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
08-02-21 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
08-02-21 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | 7-1 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
07-31-21 | Twins v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
07-31-21 | A's v. Angels OVER 10 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
07-30-21 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
07-29-21 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
07-28-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 11-4 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
07-23-21 | Padres v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
07-23-21 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 1-5 | Win | 101 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
07-22-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
07-21-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
07-20-21 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 1-4 | Win | 101 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
07-19-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 8.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
07-18-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
07-18-21 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
07-17-21 | Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
07-17-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
07-16-21 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
07-16-21 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
07-11-21 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
07-10-21 | Royals v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
07-10-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 11 | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
07-09-21 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 9 | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
07-09-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 5-10 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
07-08-21 | Nationals v. Padres UNDER 7 | 8-9 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
07-06-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
07-06-21 | A's v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 6-9 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
07-05-21 | Reds v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -118 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
07-05-21 | Dodgers v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
07-04-21 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
07-04-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
07-04-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 10 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
07-04-21 | Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
07-03-21 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
07-02-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
07-02-21 | Astros v. Indians OVER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
07-01-21 | Padres v. Reds UNDER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
07-01-21 | Mariners v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
06-30-21 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
06-30-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
06-29-21 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
06-28-21 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 7 | Top | 4-14 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
06-27-21 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
06-25-21 | Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
06-24-21 | Royals v. Yankees UNDER 10 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
06-23-21 | Blue Jays v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 3-1 | Win | 104 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
06-22-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
06-22-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
06-21-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
06-20-21 | White Sox v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 2-8 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
06-18-21 | A's v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
06-17-21 | Brewers v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
06-16-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Marlins v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
06-13-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
06-13-21 | Yankees v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
06-11-21 | Royals v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
06-11-21 | Astros v. Twins OVER 11 | 6-4 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
06-11-21 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 9 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
06-11-21 | Giants v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
06-10-21 | Rockies v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | 4-11 | Win | 104 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
06-09-21 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
06-08-21 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
06-07-21 | Royals v. Angels OVER 9 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
06-06-21 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
06-05-21 | Indians v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 10-4 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
06-04-21 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
06-04-21 | Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
06-04-21 | Dodgers v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
06-02-21 | Rangers v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
06-02-21 | Marlins v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
06-02-21 | Mets v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
06-01-21 | Angels v. Giants OVER 6.5 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
06-01-21 | Pirates v. Royals OVER 8 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
06-01-21 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
05-31-21 | Pirates v. Royals OVER 8 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
05-29-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
05-29-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 8 | 4-0 | Loss | -126 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
05-28-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
05-27-21 | Orioles v. White Sox OVER 9 | 1-5 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
05-26-21 | Royals v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
05-26-21 | Braves v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
05-25-21 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
05-22-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
05-21-21 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-16 | Win | 103 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
05-21-21 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9 | 7-5 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
05-21-21 | Red Sox v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 11-3 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
05-20-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
05-18-21 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
05-17-21 | Indians v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |