Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-29-18 | Texas v. Kansas State OVER 48 | Top | 19-14 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
NCAAF Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Texas and Kansas State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Texas’ big win over TCU last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘over’ as the Longhorns hit the road to face Kansas State this week. I thought the Longhorns did a tremendous job moving the football against a good Horned Frogs defense last Saturday. They were able to come up with big plays when they needed to and have now strung together four pretty impressive offensive results through four games, scoring 29, 28, 37 and 31 points. While their defense has certainly contributed as well, I will give plenty of credit to this emerging offense and I’m confident they can keep things rolling against a Wildcats squad that has had a tough time defending against anyone with a pulse this season. Kansas State gave up five touchdowns through the first three quarters against West Virginia last Saturday. In a previous step-up game against Mississippi State two weeks earlier it hung tough for a quarter before allowing a pair of back-breaking second quarter touchdowns. Offensively the Wildcats have had a tough time as well but will look for a spark with QB Alex Delton taking over the reins against the Longhorns. I like the fact that they’re catching Texas in a clear letdown spot off back-to-back high profile wins over USC and TCU. Let’s also keep in mind that we saw a shootout between these two teams last year with Texas prevailing by a 40-34 score. Take the over (10*). |
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09-28-18 | UCLA v. Colorado OVER 60.5 | Top | 16-38 | Loss | -107 | 84 h 42 m | Show |
NCAAF Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between UCLA and Colorado at 9 pm et on Friday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Boulder on Friday night. The UCLA offense has had a tough time getting things going in its first year under the guidance of Chip Kelly, scoring a grand total of just 52 points through three games. This does have the feel of a ‘clean slate’ game, however, as the Bruins head out on the road for their first Pac-12 game of the season. And they’ll be facing a Colorado defense that probably isn’t quite as good as the stats may indicate, as it has faced a weak Colorado State offense and an FCS opponent in New Hampshire in two of its first three games this season. In the Buffaloes other game, they allowed well over 500 total yards of offense in a wild 33-28 victory over Nebraska. The good news for Colorado is that its offense has been better than anticipated and I don’t believe the UCLA defense will offer a great deal of resistance on Friday night. Colorado scored three offensive touchdowns in the first half against UNH last Saturday and it was a breakout performance by RB Travon McMillian as he ran for 162 yards on only 15 carries. Of course, the offense evolves around experienced QB Steven Montez. He didn’t have to do much against UNH last time out, but in his first two games, threw for 689 yards, seven touchdowns and just one interception. He should have a field day against a very beatable UCLA defense that is still finding its way in the early going and just allowed five offensive touchdowns in a blowout loss against Fresno State, at home no less. Take the over (10*). |
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09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams OVER 49 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Los Angeles on Thursday night. We won with the ‘over’ in the Rams victory over the Chargers last Sunday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. While the Vikings have seen the ‘under’ cash in two of their first three games this season, the fact is, all three of those contests just as easily could and probably should have gone ‘over’ the number. A lot of points were left on the field in their opener against the 49ers as San Francisco in particular had a tough time finishing drives – keep in mind that was against a Vikings defense that was virtually at full strength, and at home no less. The Vikes followed that up with a wild 29-29 tie in Green Bay before returning home in a massive sandwich spot against the lowly Bills, shockingly dropping that game in blowout fashion. There’s no question Minnesota was caught looking past Buffalo and wasn’t sharp on either side of the football. The Vikes know they’ll need to be a lot better, particularly on offense, in order to hang with the red hot Rams on Thursday night. Los Angeles has gotten better offensively with each passing game this season. There really was no stopping Sean McVay’s offense last Sunday as the Rams moved the football at will against a banged-up Chargers defense. Now they face another quality defensive opponent, but one that is also missing a number of key cogs. I look for Rams WR Cooper Kupp in particular to have a big game in this spot after being generally held in check by the Chargers last week. He owns a considerable advantage against Vikings slot corner Mackensie Alexander in this one. The Vikings will be without their best pass rusher in Everson Griffen this week and are banged-up in the secondary as well. For a team that hasn’t performed particularly well defensively on the road, that spells major trouble against the Rams outstanding offense. I do believe the Vikes can hang in there on the strength of their offense, however, and they certainly have ‘bomb away’ potential should they fall behind. Dalvin Cook may be sidelined again on Thursday, but it should be the Minnesota passing game that exploits a couple of mismatches on the perimeter with Rams' corners Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib sidelined. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions OVER 53.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between New England and Detroit at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This has all the makings of a high-scoring shootout on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots defense isn’t an elite group to begin with and things have gotten worse on the injury front with both Trey Flowers and Patrick Chung expected to miss this week’s game. While the Lions are off to a miserable 0-2 start, they have continued to bomb away with Matt Stafford throwing for well over 600 yards and four touchdowns (to go along with four interceptions). There’s a good chance the Lions will be playing from behind again on Sunday night, which opens the door for another aerial assault from Stafford to his fantastic trio of wide receivers in Tate, Jones and Golladay. I don’t think Lions fans should have any false hope that their team can slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense here. Detroit’s two best defensive players, Ezekiel Ansah and Darius Slay are both expected to miss this game. That leaves the Lions defense completely exposed in this particular matchup. Brady should have little trouble carving up this Detroit secondary in particular, and will have no shortage of motivation after suffering that ugly loss in Jacksonville last Sunday. Expect to see both offenses keep their foot on the gas pedal for four quarters in ideal conditions indoors at Ford Field. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-18 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 56 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 6 m | Show |
NCAAF SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Mississippi State and Kentucky at 7 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Lexington on Saturday night. This is a showdown between two undefeated SEC squads and sets up as a potential slugfest as far as I’m concerned. It’s certainly not being priced that way as far as the total goes, however. While Mississippi State’s offense has grabbed all of the attention, it’s been the Bulldogs defense that I’ve been most impressed by. Through three games they’ve allowed a grand total of just 26 points and have yet to give up more than 10 points in a game. Last week’s rout of Louisiana-Lafayette may have looked like and played out like a cupcake matchup, but the Ragin’ Cajuns had scored 49 points in their season-opener and Sun Belt squads never shy away from dialing up their offense in non-conference matchups. The Bulldogs allowed an early first quarter field goal but then held the Ragin’ Cajuns scoreless until more than midway through the fourth quarter in that one. In a tougher test on the road against Kansas State, Mississippi State didn’t allow a touchdown until the final three minutes of the third quarter. Kentucky has given up just 46 points through three games and has seemingly gotten stronger defensively with each passing game. The Wildcats were certainly impressive in their lone true test so far this season, allowing only 16 points on the road against Florida two weeks ago. They held the Gators out of the end zone until midway through the second quarter in that contest. The Kentucky offense scored an early touchdown against Murray State last week but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the final two minutes of the first half. I believe both defenses can keep the opposing offenses at bay for stretches in this Saturday night showdown. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple UNDER 58 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 2 m | Show |
NCAAF AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tulsa and Temple at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Lincoln Financial Field on Thursday night. Tulsa has suffered back-to-back losses since opening the season with a win over FCS squad Central Arkansas. Even in that 38-27 win over Central Arkansas, the Golden Hurricane were only at 24 points until a couple of late fourth quarter scores put the game away. In their second game against Texas they didn't find the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter. Then last week against Arkansas State, Tulsa scored a touchdown midway through the first quarter but then didn't hit paydirt again until the fourth quarter. We won with the 'under' in Temple's surprising blowout win at Maryland last Saturday. That game got to 49 total points but it's worth noting that it featured three defensive or special teams touchdowns. Prior to that, the Owls had started the season 0-2 and in their last game didn't score a touchdown until the final play of the first half against a middle of the road Buffalo defense. In the Owls season-opener against FCS squad Villanova they didn't find the end zone until past midway through the third quarter. With all of that said, their defense has held up pretty well and I would expect more of the same on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Miami and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in the Jets season-opening win in Detroit (we weren’t close with that play) but won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as New York returns home to host the Dolphins this week. Everyone is singing Sam Darnold’s praises but he will face a much tougher test here than he did against the Lions defense, which was an absolute joke on Monday night. Not only that but Darnold will be working on a short week of preparation following the Monday nighter. Expect another solid but perhaps not spectacular game from the rookie QB. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill did a nice job of managing the game against the Titans last Sunday and will have to play smart again this week as he faces an opportunistic Jets defense. Don’t count on Tannehill airing it out early and often in this contest. I would count on Miami serving the Jets with a heavy dose of their RB tandem in Kenyon Drake and Frank Gore in an effort to control time of possession. This total is actually a couple of points higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-18 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State UNDER 58 | Top | 42-25 | Loss | -107 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
NCAAF Rivalry Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between New Mexico and New Mexico State at 8 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring game between these two rivals last season with New Mexico State prevailing by a 30-28 score. I believe it will be a struggle to get to that total in this year’s meeting, however. New Mexico opened the season with a wild 62-30 win over Incarnate Word, a cupcake matchup to open the season that the Lobos took full advantage of. They actually held their own last week as well, despite facing one of the best teams in the country in Wisconsin on the road. I like the way the Lobos held up defensively in that one early on, not giving up a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half. The question is whether New Mexico will suffer from any lingering effects after facing a big, physical football team like Wisconsin. The good news is the Lobos will be going up against a New Mexico State offense that is still trying to find its way even as it plays its fourth game of the season on Saturday. Because of a first-year starter at quarterback and issues on the offensive line, the Aggies have really had to scale back the offense and I can’t see them really opening things up, or finding a great deal of success against a familiar opponent in New Mexico this week. The Lobos did gain a bit of traction running the football in a blowout loss to Utah State last Saturday and will aim to control the football and the clock again here. Defensively, the Aggies are dealing with some key injuries but on a positive note, didn’t give up an offensive touchdown against Utah State until the final six minutes of the first half last week. After facing Minnesota and Utah State on the road in back-to-back weeks, I’m sure the Aggies will be happy to be back home and facing a rival opponent. In what should be a tightly-contested affair I’ll back the ‘under’. Take the under (10*). |
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09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest OVER 51 | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 56 h 8 m | Show |
NOTE START TIME: NCAAF ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Wake Forest at 5:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in this ACC showdown on Thursday night. The 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 in the last eight meetings in this series but I believe that has been factored into this total. Boston College has gotten off to an incredible start having scored 117 points in rolling to back-to-back home wins over UMass and Holy Cross. Now the Eagles will face their first true test of the season on the road against conference opponent Wake Forest. In short, I expect the BC offense to keep rolling. Note that the Eagles have scored an incredible 82 points in the first half of their first two games this season. The difference is here on Thursday they likely won't be able to take their foot off the gas in the second half, and that certainly helps our cause with the 'over'. Wake Forest followed up a rather ho-hum 23-17 win over Tulane in its season-opener before scoring 51 points in a rout of Towson last Saturday. The Deacons did whatever they wanted on the ground against the Tigers in that one. They'll face more resistance here, but I still expect them to put some points on the board. Note that even in that ugly victory over Tulane, QB Sam Hartman threw for nearly 400 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The problem was a pair of key interceptions. He'll certainly need to do a better job of taking care of the football in this one, but I do believe he's capable of doing so in this step-up game. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions UNDER 45 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in the first half of Monday's NFL double-header in Detroit. The Jets won their preseason opener by a 17-0 score over Atlanta but followed it up with three straight losses, scoring a grand total of just 38 points in the process. Sam Darnold takes over at quarterback but I certainly don't expect the Jets to throw him right into the fire in his first career road start, on Monday Night Football no less. Look for a heavy dose of the Jets running game in this one as they count on a combination of that and solid defensive play to shoot for an opening week victory. The Lions put up 33 points in their 'dress rehearsal' game in Week 3 of the preseason but that had little to do with the Detroit starters, with QB Matt Stafford completing just 9-of-18 passes. I'm not all that high on this Lions offense, even with the addition of veteran RB LaGarrette Blount, who should alleviate some of their concerns on the ground. I actually believe it will be the Detroit defense that shines in this contest. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-18 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 51 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last year as the Patriots came back to win by a 36-33 score. That has most bettors anticipating another shootout on Sunday afternoon, but I'm not so easily convinced. The Texans were certainly a better defensive team than they showed in that game against the Patriots last season. I believe they have the potential to be even better on that side of the football this year. Meanwhile, the Patriots offense is missing a number of key cogs from a year ago and while they should cruise to another AFC East title, I'm not sure they're going to be the offensive juggernaut we've seen in years' past. Defensively, the Pats were shredded by Texans QB DeShaun Watson in what was really his 'coming out party' a year ago. Expect New England to do a better job of containing Watson this time around. I don't anticipate either team generating much on the ground in this one, and while that can sometimes mean we're in for an air show, I do have confidence in both secondaries to hold up well here in Week 1. Note that the closing total in this matchup last year was just 44.5 points at most books. We're dealing with a much higher number this time around - I'm not sure it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Arizona v. Houston UNDER 72 | Top | 18-45 | Win | 100 | 63 h 34 m | Show |
NCAAF Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Houston at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll go the contrarian route on Saturday afternoon as Arizona heads to Houston for an early start non-conference showdown. Most are expecting a high-scoring affair but I expect a different story to unfold. Keep in mind, these two teams met last September in Arizona and totaled just 35 points in a three-point Cougars victory. Arizona is in a bit of a tough spot here, coming off an unexpected home loss to BYU to open the season last week. The Wildcats scored only 23 points in that loss, with 13 of those coming in the fourth quarter. They didn't manage to put any points on the board in the first or third quarters in that contest. Their first touchdown didn't come until the final minute of the first half. While the Arizona offense will undoubtedly improve as the season goes on, I don't see a big bounce-back performance from that unit here. Houston rolled to a 45-27 victory over Rice last week but it's worth noting that the Cougars didn't put a touchdown on the board until midway through the second quarter, and that was against a weak Owls defense. I do feel that QB D'Eriq King's three-touchdown (through the air - he added one on the ground) day had more to do with taking what Rice gave him than anything else. I expect him to face a tougher challenge against a Wildcats defense that did hold its own against BYU last week. The early start doesn't hurt our cause here as this game will kick off just after 11 am local time. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-18 | TCU v. SMU UNDER 58.5 | Top | 42-12 | Win | 100 | 73 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAF Friday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and SMU at 8 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams were involved in high-scoring affairs last week, albeit with much different outcomes as TCU rolled past Southern and SMU had its doors blown off by North Texas. It is worth noting that TCU was a 49.5-point favorite against Southern and it did take the Horned Frogs half a quarter to find the end zone. QB Shawn Robinson has taken over the reins and certainly played well, but I don't believe we'll see this offense firing on all cylinders for at least a couple of weeks. SMU didn't get on the scoreboard until the fourth quarter against a very beatable North Texas defense last week. On a positive note, the Mustangs did allow only one offensive touchdown in the entire first half against the Mean Green Eagles. They were facing a seasoned veteran QB in Mason Fine in that contest, noting that he threw for over 4,000 yards and 31 touchdowns a year ago. The Mustangs will actually be taking a step down in class in some sense as far as quarterbacks go against Robinson. Last year's matchup between these two teams ended up reaching 92 total points. However, it's worth noting that the last three matchups on this field have totaled 56 points or less with the most recent totaling only 36 points in 2016. There's no rush to play this total as we'll likely see it climb by at least a couple of points before kickoff on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Jacksonville and New England at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘under’ on Sunday afternoon in Foxborough. Both of these teams lit up the scoreboard in their respective Divisional Round games last weekend. The Jaguars were buoyed by a number of Steelers turnovers and took advantage of excellent field position throughout the game, an advantage they’re not likely to enjoy against the Pats this Sunday. Meanwhile, New England faced no resistance against a middle of the road Titans defense last Saturday night. Jacksonville’s defense is undoubtedly on another level by comparison. That’s not to say they’ll shut down the Pats vaunted offense by any means, but we don’t really need them to with the total set where it is. While the New England offense gets most of the credit, we’ve seen the defense come up big time and time again and I expect no different here as they take away Jacksonville’s best offensive weapon, RB Leonard Fournette, and force QB Blake Bortles into obvious passing situations. I believe there’s a good chance we see the winning side score in the 24-27 point range here, which puts us in good position to cash our ticket. Take the under (10*). |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers OVER 41 | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' at Heinz Field on Sunday afternoon. The Jags certainly didn't put their best foot forward offensively against the Bills last Sunday, QB Blake Bortles in particular. However, they still managed to win the game, and now they have a shot at accomplishing something truly great in Pittsburgh. I look for a much better showing by Bortles and the offense in general. Keep in mind, RB Leonard Fournette ran wild against the Steelers back in early October, gaining 181 yards and punching in a pair of touchdowns on the ground. Ben Roethlisberger threw five interceptions against the Jags defense on that afternoon, but I expect a much different story to unfold this time around. Big Ben will have all-world WR Antonio Brown back at his disposal, and with Martavis Bryant stepping up down the stretch as well, this aerial attack is truly loaded. We're dealing with a low total, but I don't believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tennessee and Kansas City at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ as the NFL Playoffs kick off in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon. While the Chiefs did close out the regular season with their offensively seemingly humming along, the fact is, neither of these offenses was all that consistent this season. Note that the Titans haven’t allowed more than 27 points in a game since Week 11, when they suffered a 40-17 loss in Pittsburgh, playing just four days after a 24-20 home win over the Bengals. Meanwhile, the Chiefs allowed 15 points or less in their last three games that mattered (they gave up 24 points in last week’s meaningless win over the Broncos – we won with the ‘over’ in that contest). There’s really no need to overthink things here. I’m just not sure that either quarterback really gets rolling, nor do I believe the ground games will run wild in the first of this weekend’s four Wild Card matchups. Take the under (10*). |
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12-31-17 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 37.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Denver on Sunday afternoon. I'm confident we'll see both offenses open things up in this somewhat meaningless Week 17 matchup. The Chiefs will give rookie Patrick Mahomes a chance under center and I believe we'll see him perform well. Meanwhile, the Broncos offense has been a mess all season long but can take a step toward next season with a strong finish in front of the home faithful. Both defenses have had their ups and downs this season, but in reality there have been more downs than ups. Familiarity generally lends itself to lower scoring football games, but I believe the oddsmakers have gone too low with this total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers OVER 42 | Top | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The betting marketplace still hasn't caught up with these two rejuvenated offenses, at least considering this relatively low posted total. The Jags have seemingly come out of nowhere to become a contender in the AFC this season and while their defense has led the way for much of the campaign, it has been their offense that has really shouldered the load lately. A host of emerging talents at wide receiver have helped lift up QB Blake Bortles and I expect to see continuation of that strong play here in San Francisco. Meanwhile, the 49ers have found their QB of the future in Jimmy Garoppolo. In fact, he's proving to be their QB of the present as well. This will be Garoppolo's toughest test since taking over the starting job for the Niners, but I'm confident he'll exceed expectations. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Tampa Bay at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I don't believe either of these teams will have trouble moving the football on Monday night. The Falcons stumbled last week against New Orleans, but still managed to prevail in a rather ugly 20-17 affair. I expect them to bounce back in a big way offensively here - QB Matt Ryan in particular. Meanwhile, the Bucs have had some success putting points on the board against the Falcons, even if it hasn't resulted in much success in the win column. Note that Tampa Bay has scored at least 20 points in four straight games. With that being said, it has lost three games in a row and will be highly-motivated to respond here. Keep an eye on Bucs RB Peyton Barber in particular in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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12-02-17 | Memphis v. Central Florida UNDER 81 | Top | 55-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
CFB Championship Saturday Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Central Florida at 12 noon et on Saturday. These two teams have combined to post a 15-7 o/u record this season but as we've learned year after year, Championship Saturday is a different animal in college football. Both of these offenses are outstanding - among the best in the nation. But they've also beat up on mostly terrible defensive units from the AAC over the course of the season. Here, I look for both teams to bring their 'A' game defensively, and even if both units are vulnerable, I believe they're capable of stepping up in this winner take all affair. Note that Memphis hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game in this series since 2008. Since then, the 'under' has gone 4-1-1 in six meetings. Take the under (10*). |
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11-30-17 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Dallas at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'm anticipating a bit of a shootout in Arlington on Thursday night. The Redskins scored only 20 points against a struggling Giants defense, at home no less, on Thanksgiving Night but I'm not going to knock them for that ho-hum performance. We've seen QB Kirk Cousins renew acquaintances with WR Jamison Crowder and also WR Josh Doctson in recent weeks. Last Thursday Crowder went off for 141 yards on seven catches while Doctson kept up his hot hand with a touchdown as well. RB Samaje Perine looked good out of the backfield as well, running for 100 yards and adding three catches. I don't expect the Redskins to face much resistance against a Cowboys defense that is still missing its anchor, LB Sean Lee. Until he returns, this unit is vulnerable to say the least. The Cowboys offense has struggled mightily since losing RB Ezekiel Elliott to suspension but I'm anticipating a strong bounce-back performance here. There's no excuse for this offense now. The Cowboys were a no-show against the Chargers on Thanksgiving Day but now face a more manageable matchup against a Redskins defense that is also missing some key cogs. There's no doubt this is a huge game for both teams, perhaps a little moreso for the Cowboys on the heels of three straight losses. Look for them to finally find the end zone and spark what should be an entertaining NFC East showdown on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-25-17 | Connecticut v. Cincinnati OVER 57.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Connecticut and Cincinnati at 12 pm et on Saturday. It certainly appears that both of these three-win teams have checked out defensively and I’m not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough as a result. Connecticut has lost four games in a row, allowing 52, 37, 49 and 39 points along the way. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has dropped back-to-back games, giving up 35 and 48 points in the process. I do expect the offenses to show up on this occasion as both teams will be taking the field for the final time this season. The last meeting between these two teams was a 20-9 snoozefest in favor of UConn last year. Expect a different story to unfold this time around. Take the over (10*). |
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11-19-17 | Chiefs v. Giants OVER 45 | Top | 9-12 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. Not sure that either side is going to show up and play defense in this non-conference matchup on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs are back at it after suffering a 28-17 loss in Dallas two weeks ago. The bye should serve them well as they aim to get their previously high-octane offense back in gear, and this is the perfect matchup to do just that as the Giants haven't played any semblance of defense in recent weeks. New York does continue to sling the football around on offense, even if they have struggled to put points on the board consistently. We saw them play right to the final whistle last week in San Francisco, scoring a touchdown on their final offensive drive of the game. WR Sterling Shepherd has quietly taken on the number one role while rookie TE Evan Engram has found excellent chemistry with Eli Manning. I don't expect the G-Men to hold anything back in this one, and the Chiefs defense has certainly been vulnerable since losing Eric Berry. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-17 | Georgia Tech v. Duke OVER 46.5 | Top | 20-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Georgia Tech and Duke at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Last year’s meeting between these two teams totaled 73 points and I believe we’re dealing with an overreaction to the step back both squads have taken this year, particularly on the offensive side of the football. I’m confident we’ll see a high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon in Durham. Both teams will certainly have ample motivation. Georgia Tech needs one more victory to become Bowl eligible while Duke will need to win its final two regular season games to accomplish that feat. The Yellow Jackets stunned Virginia Tech by a 28-22 score last week but haven’t won back-to-back games since September. While their offense hasn’t been all that consistent, it has certainly come up with big performances over the course of the season and I believe Duke is vulnerable against their option attack here. The Blue Devils have lost six straight games since opening the campaign with four wins in a row. Their offense, or lack thereof, has been the main culprit. However, as I mentioned, with Georgia Tech coming off a big victory last week, they could suffer a big of a defensive letdown here and open the door for a breakout performance from the Duke offense. I believe this total has been set at least a few points too low. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-17 | Rice v. Old Dominion OVER 53 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
CFB C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Rice and Old Dominion at 2 pm et on Saturday. I fully expect to see an entertaining shootout between these two losing football teams on Saturday afternoon. Maybe shootout isn’t the appropriate word as I’m not sure either offense will rely on its passing attack to put points on the board in bunches. Instead I look for both ground games to run wild. After pitching a shutout against Charlotte, ODU was torched for 30 points by Florida International last week, but still managed to win the game by eight points on the strength of a big day from RB Ray Lawry. The ODU defense has been lit up more often than not this season, and while Rice is by no means an offensive juggernaut, I do expect the Owls to find some success after scoring 34 points in a losing effort last week. RB Nahshon Ellerbe ran for 153 yards and four scores in that game. I’m confident the losing side can get well into the 20’s in this contest, and that should put us in excellent shape with an ‘over’ ticket in hand. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-17 | Chargers v. Jaguars OVER 40.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. The last time we saw the Chargers they were struggling to a 21-13 loss in New England two weeks ago. There were some positives to take from that setback, however, most notably the performance of RB Melvin Gordon who ran for 132 yards and a score. While the Jaguars defense has been terrific as a whole this season, it has still allowed the opposition to run for just shy of five yards per rush. I expect Gordon to turn in another strong performance here, which obviously works to help open things up for Philip Rivers and the passing game as well. On the flip side, Jags RB Leonard Fournette was suspended for last Sunday's game. He'll be back tomorrow and I expect him to run like a man possessed. Like the Jags defense, the Chargers have been stout, but not particularly strong against the run, giving up 4.6 yards per rush. Fournette should set up the Jags aerial attack here. We're dealing with a reasonably low total in what should be a competitive game on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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11-04-17 | Arizona v. USC UNDER 76.5 | Top | 35-49 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Arizona and USC at 10:45 pm et on Saturday. I’m not anticipating the type of shootout the oddsmakers are calling for in Los Angeles on Saturday night. Yes, this sets up as a fantastic matchup between two nationally ranked Pac-12 foes, both with offenses that can put points on the board in a hurry. However, I’m confident the Trojans athletes on the defensive side of the football will give the Wildcats offense some trouble, and that sets the tone for this contest in my opinion. Arizona will stick around as this is a confident bunch that certainly doesn’t want to throw away all it has accomplished already this season, having gone 4-1 in Pac-12 play. But I don’t believe the Wildcats will be successful in turning this into a track meet (or maybe they’d prefer to take their chances in a lower-scoring affair). Either way, I don’t think the winning side sniffs out 40. Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 43 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New York at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair between these AFC East rivals on Thursday night. The Bills have scored 30+ points in back-to-back games but those came against reeling defenses in the Bucs and Raiders. Different story here as save for a fourth quarter lapse against the Dolphins, the Jets defense has held up pretty well. Keep in mind, the first meeting between these two teams this season totaled only 33 points. Offensively, New York has put up 48 points in its last two contests. That type of production isn't sustainable given the makeup of its offense, however. At least in my opinion. The Bills added WR Kelvin Benjamin prior to the trade deadline but it's unlikely he'll make an immediate impact. On the flip side, the Jets will aim to turn this into a slugfest. At home, they'll have a puncher's chance of doing just that. Take the under (10*). |
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10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 42.5 | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Kansas City at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night. Two familiar AFC West foes will go at it in this one and I'm expecting points to come at a premium. The Denver defense is in full bounce-back mode after struggling against the Chargers and Giants in the last two weeks (of course they haven't had much help from their offense staying on the field). The Chiefs got torched for 31 points in Oakland last week. Things won't get much easier on Monday as the Broncos will likely open up the playbook coming off a shutout loss. The last meeting between these two teams came on Christmas Night last year, as the Chiefs rolled to a 33-10 victory. The 'over' has actually gone 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in this series. That only sets us up with a posted total higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-17 | Georgia v. Florida OVER 43.5 | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
CFB SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Georgia and Florida at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. The thinking here is that Florida will turn this game into a slugfest. I’m not so easily convinced that will be the case, however. The Georgia Bulldogs have evolved into an offensive juggernaut this season and I don’t see them getting derailed by the Gators. Florida has been involved in back-to-back low-scoring affairs, totaling just 69 points combined over its last two contests. Keep in mind, this is a team that put up 92 points during a three-game winning streak in the latter half of September though. Georgia looked nearly invincible defensively earlier in the season but does check into this game having allowed 42 points against Vandy and Missouri over its last two contests. We’re dealing with a low total in this matchup, too low in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-17 | Akron v. Toledo OVER 60.5 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Akron and Toledo at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ at the Glass Bowl on Saturday afternoon. Akron is coming off back-to-back strong defensive performances, giving up just 16 points combined in victories over Ball State and Western Michigan. I look for the Zips to struggle to contain the Rockets offense on Saturday, however. Akron can certainly put points on the board itself, even if it has been inconsistent in that regard this season. I see this as a favorable spot for the Zips offense to get rolling again after getting bottled up for much of the game against Western Michigan last week. The only blip on the Rockets schedule so far was a 52-30 road loss against Miami. Like Akron, Toledo has put forth a couple of solid defensive showings lately, giving up just 25 points combined in wins over Eastern and Central Michigan. But again, I’m not sure that’s sustainable. Last year’s meeting between these two teams totaled 65 points. I believe the potential is there for this one to eclipse that number. Take the over (10*). |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 47 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Oakland at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Oakland on Thursday night. The Chiefs are a little banged up following a physical, losing effort at home against the Steelers last Sunday. We saw the Pittsburgh defense do an excellent job of slowing down what had been an explosive Chiefs offense, and I expect to see some carry-over from those struggles as the reeling Raiders know exactly what is on the line in this AFC West showdown. Oakland got off to an impressive 2-0 start this season, but has since lost four games in a row, never scoring more than 17 points. Of course, an injury to QB David Carr contributed to that. He's back now, but didn't look all that in sync with the rest of the offense last Sunday and now faces a quick turnaround against a familiar opponent. The Chiefs defense has really only struggled in one game this season, that coming on the road against the Texans two weeks ago in a contest where they jumped ahead big early. I'm anticipating more of a nip-and-tuck affair on Thursday night, even with all the offensive weapons on both teams. Last season's two matchups totaled 36 and 34 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 38-52 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in the Big Easy on Sunday afternoon. The Lions have been involved in two low-scoring road games already this season, totaling 34 points in New York (against the Giants) and 21 points in Minnesota. We saw the Lions defense get roughed up by Cam Newton and the Panthers last Sunday, but I expect a strong bounce-back performance here. Meanwhile, the Saints young defense has started to round into form, allowing just 13 points over their last two games combined. This is a unit that dealt with some early season headaches but has settled in of late, and draws a favorable matchup against a Lions offense that isn't exactly firing on all cylinders. We're dealing with a relatively high total here, just as we did in last year's matchup in New Orleans - a game that reached only 41 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 40 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I simply feel that this total has been set too high. The Vikings are obviously missing a number of key pieces on offense. It showed last week as they managed only seven points in a home loss against the Lions. I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat on offense this week as they hit the road for the first time in three games. Meanwhile, the Bears will turn to Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. It's the right move to displace an ineffective Mike Glennon but I'm not sure we'll see them light up the scoreboard with Trubisky at the helm either. Yes, the Bears have a dynamic ground attack led by Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen but I look for the Vikings vaunted defense to hold that duo at bay. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-17 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina UNDER 63 | Top | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Notre Dame and North Carolina at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. After getting off to a hot start offensively this season, North Carolina has cooled off considerably over the last two games and I’m not sure we’ll see the Tar Heels pick themselves up off the mat against an elite opponent in Notre Dame on Saturday afternoon. A more likely ‘get right’ matchup will come next week as UNC hosts Virginia. Notre Dame hasn’t faced any resistance over the last three weeks, scoring 49, 38 and 52 points in reeling off three consecutive victories. While the Tar Heels certainly aren’t known for their defensive ability I do expect them to show up in that regard here. They had very little success against the Georgia Tech option offense last Saturday but should bounce back against an Irish offense that could be in for a letdown. Take the under (10*). |
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09-23-17 | Duke v. North Carolina UNDER 60 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Duke and North Carolina at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in North Carolina’s rout of Old Dominion last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well here as the Tar Heels welcome the Blue Devils to Chapel Hill. Duke is off to a somewhat surprising 3-0 start to the season and while the Blue Devils offense has been terrific, it has been the defense that has impressed me the most. Through three games, Duke has allowed a grand total of only 44 points. Yes, there was a gimme against North Carolina Central in the mix but over the last two weeks, the Blue Devils have held both Northwestern and Baylor in check. Meanwhile, North Carolina has faced a pretty tough early season slate, hosting Cal and Louisville before defeating Old Dominion on the road last week. The Tar Heels know they’ll need to be better defensively in order to take down the Blue Devils and I believe they will be. Offensively, they’ve been better than expected but face a tough challenge here. Most are anticipating a shootout but I believe the total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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09-17-17 | Bears v. Bucs OVER 43 | Top | 7-29 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 13 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Chicago and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ as the Buccaneers finally open their season at home against the Bears on Sunday afternoon. The Bears opened with a narrow 23-17 loss to the Falcons last week. There were certainly some positives to take away from that game, however. Yes, the defense held up well, limiting a very good Falcons offense to only two touchdowns, but I came away more impressed by the offense. Maybe ‘impressed’ is a bit of a stretch, but I liked the fact that they made an effort to push the ball downfield, with Mike Glennon attempting 40 passes, not to mention the emergence of RB Tarik Cohen as a versatile runner and pass catcher out of the backfield. RB Jordan Howard got plenty of hype leading into the season, but Cohen was certainly the more electric back last Sunday. It may not last, but for now, I believe the Bears have big play ability with their RB tandem. The Bucs offense has a chance to be really special this season. Adding DeSean Jackson was big, as was drafting TE O.J. Howard. Mike Evans is in line for a career year with QB Jameis Winston continuing his progression. While the Bears pose a tough challenge defensively, I believe the Bucs will be up for it. This total is a shade low as far as I’m concerned. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-17 | Ole Miss v. California OVER 71.5 | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
CFB ESPN O/U Bailout. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Ole Miss and Cal at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Berkeley on Saturday night. This one is being pegged a shootout, and rightfully so. Ole Miss probably isn’t quite as good as it has looked through two games but there’s no denying that the Rebels possess an offense that is capable of putting points on the board in a hurry. Against a Cal squad that won’t shy away from a track meet, I expect Ole Miss to continue to thrive offensively. The Bears have scored 68 points in winning back-to-back games to open the season, including a quality road win against North Carolina two weeks ago. It’s the Bears running game that really exploded against Weber State last week, and I’m confident they’ll be able to move the chains on the ground against a middle of the road Rebels defense as well. Despite facing two lower-tier opponents in South Alabama and Tennesee-Martin to start the season, the Rebels have still allowed 50 points, albeit in two winning efforts. They know that they’ll need to end most drives with seven points on the board if they want to stick around in this game. Likewise for Cal. In a matchup of two teams that need to make the most of their non-conference schedules, I’m anticipating an entertaining, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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09-15-17 | UMass v. Temple OVER 52 | Top | 21-29 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UMass and Temple at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' at the Linc on Friday night. We cashed a ticket fading UMass last week, and also cashed with the 'over' in the Minutemen's season opener against Hawaii. In other words, I think we have a pretty good handle on where this team is at right now. I certainly feel that UMass is a better offensive team than it showed in last week's ugly 17-7 home loss to Old Dominion. Note that the Minutemen had scored 63 points in their first two games. With TE Adam Breneman and WR Andy Isabella, not to mention RB Marquis Young, who scored four touchdowns in the first two games, UMass has a solid nucleus on offense. It's just a matter of them finishing drives. I believe they'll be able to do that against a Temple defense that lost a lot of talent from last year's team. The Owls have been held to 16 points in each of their first two games going 1-1. They ran into a tough FCS opponent in Villanova last week but will take a step down in class against the Minutemen. Keep in mind, this is a UMass team that gave up 38 points against both Hawaii and Coastal Carolina. Last week's opponent, ODU was missing its top offensive player in RB Ray Lawry. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-17 | Boise State v. Washington State UNDER 58 | Top | 44-47 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Washington State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. Boise State has reeled off three consecutive 'under' results going back to last season while the Cougars have posted an 0-2-1 o/u mark over their last three contests dating back to 2016. Washington State is still thought of as an offensive powerhouse rather than a defensive stalwart but the fact is, the Cougars can bring it on the defensive side of the football, particularly here at home. They opened the 2017 campaign with a shutout performance against Montana State. They'll obviously be facing a much tougher challenge here but after barely breaking a sweat last week, I believe they'll be up to the task. Boise State had its way with Troy in its season opener, prevailing by a 24-13 score. Note that the Broncos managed only 12 points in a blowout loss in their Bowl game against Baylor last year. We've seen the Broncos have a tough time keeping it rolling offensively when stepping up in class in recent years and I believe that will prove to be the case here as well. Boise State may not be an elite defensive squad but it is serviceable to be sure. Note that it hasn't allowed more than 31 points in a game since November 2015. Take the under (10*). |
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09-02-17 | BYU v. LSU UNDER 47 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 50 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and LSU at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. College football games in domed stadiums always seem to draw in plenty of 'over' bettors. On the 'fast track' the common line of thinking is that the offenses will ultimately take over. I'm not sure that will be the case in this matchup between two excellent defensive squads, however. No Taysom Hill. No Jamaal Williams. Of course, that's not the entire story for BYU heading into this season, but it's a strong narrative for sure. Last week we saw the Cougars defeat FCS squad Portland State by a 20-6 score. QB Tanner Mangum completed only 16-of-27 passes for 194 yards and a touchdown. Note that BYU was held scoreless for the entire third quarter in that game and managed only a pair of field goals in the second half. Things certainly won't get any easier against LSU. On the flip side, I do expect BYU to hold its own defensively against the Tigers. LSU had a few offensive explosions last season, but more commonly we saw it struggle to string together fruitful offensive drives, particularly in the early stages of the season. I don't believe we'll see the Tigers come out firing on all cylinders here. Yes, the Cougars will be stepping up in class, but they've proved before they can hang with the big boys. Take the under (10*). |
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08-31-17 | Ohio State v. Indiana UNDER 58 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 51 m | Show |
CFB TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Indiana at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in this Big Ten showdown on Thursday night. Indiana has had a nightmarish time trying to slow down the Buckeyes over the years but I believe the time is right for the Hoosiers to at least keep things interesting in the 2017 season opener, and it all starts with keeping the Ohio State offense at bay. Last year's Hoosiers squad was a little different. They didn't get involved in as many wild shootouts and that served them well as they reached a Bowl game and nearly took down a good Utah squad, ultimately falling by a 26-24 score. Indiana returns nine starters on defense this year and I believe it is well-positioned to at least get a few more stops than it did in last year's 38-17 drubbing at the hands of the Buckeyes. Of course, Ohio State is one of the strongest teams not only in the Big Ten, but in the nation. It should only be a matter of time before the Buckeyes impose their will on the Hoosiers, especially on the defensive side of the football. We did see Ohio State's offense stagnate at times last year and I believe we see a similar story unfold as the season begins on Thursday. Last year's matchup totaled 55 points - the second straight 'under' result in this series. We're dealing with a slightly lower total as a result, but I believe the move is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs OVER 44.5 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Pittsburgh and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Kansas City on Sunday night. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Steelers blowout win over the Dolphins last Sunday. That was a tough roll of the dice as there were plenty of opportunities to send that one ‘over’ the number but turnovers essentially did us in. I expect a different story to unfold this week as the Steelers travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs. This total has been dropping and it likely has a lot to do with the weather forecast, which is calling for cold temperatures and some precipitation. I’m not all that concerned about that. I think the key here is that the Chiefs offense is being underrated by the betting marketplace – at least in my opinion. The emergence of the versatile Tyreek Hill down the stretch made a big difference for this group and with Jeremy Maclin back to full strength as well, this is suddenly a team that doesn’t have to rely on its defense and ground game to grind out victories. The Steelers defense looked good against the Dolphins last week but let’s not get carried away as they were facing the likes of Matt Moore at quarterback. I do expect Pittsburgh to stick around in this game thanks to its own explosive offense, even if Big Ben isn’t 100% healthy. This is the first time Pittsburgh has had both Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell healthy for the playoffs, and their presence was certainly felt last week, and should be again here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers OVER 45.5 | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Cold temperatures are in the forecast and that combined with the fact that the Dolphins are turning to backup QB Matt Moore is helping to keep this total in check. I believe it could be higher. Note that these two teams produced just 45 points in their regular season meeting in Florida. That one featured a closing total of 49.5 points. So the oddsmakers have made an adjustment here, I'm just not sure that it's warranted. The Dolphins ended the regular season with a thud, dropping a blowout decision against the Patriots. I do expect them to respond favorably on the offensive side of the football here, even with Moore at the helm. The Steelers don't tackle particularly well, and that opens the door for a Fins attack that does feature plenty of playmakers. On the flip side, I don't see the Fins defense slowing the Steelers three-headed monster on offense. For the first time, Pittsburgh has Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger all on the field for a playoff game. I don't believe they can be contained in this setting. The last meeting between these two teams here in Pittsburgh came back in 2013 and it totaled 62 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-16 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 59 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating another low-scoring affair between these two AFC North rivals on Sunday afternoon. The first meeting between these two teams this season totaled just 40 points back in September. We're dealing with a much lower posted total this time around, but it's warranted in my opinion. The Steelers have been one of the best 'under' bets in the league this season, posting a 4-9 o/u mark. Their offense has been steady lately, but not particularly explosive. Meanwhile, their defense has been better than expected as a whole this season. The Bengals have put up 55 points over their last two games, but don't count on them keeping it up as the competition gets tougher this week. This is still an offense that is missing its top weapon in WR A.J. Green, not to mention versatile RB Gio Bernard. The good news for Cincinnati is it has delivered back-to-back wins and its defense is performing at a very high level. I look for that to continue on Sunday afternoon at home. Take the under (10*). |
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12-15-16 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 38.5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Seattle on Thursday night. Both of these teams are coming off ugly losses last Sunday. Now playing on a short week, both will look to clean things up. I'm not anticipating many offensive fireworks. The Rams offense has been awful this season, and I'm not sure a coaching change will make an immediate impact this week. Rookie QB Jared Goff continues to make strides, but he's coming off an ugly performance against the Falcons on Sunday. Don't expect the Rams to ask him to do too much against an opportunistic Seahawks defense on Thursday. Seattle has struggled to put points on the board with QB Russell Wilson hobbled for much of the campaign. He's finally healthy, and turned in a strong effort two weeks ago against a reeling Panthers squad, but had a really tough time in Green Bay this past Sunday. Expect the Seahawks offensive performance to fall somewhere in the middle of those two games here. The Rams defense has the talent and the familiarity with the Seahawks to hold up well playing on a short week - even on the road. Three of the last four meetings in Seattle have totaled 36 points or less. Take the under (10*). |
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12-08-16 | Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 47 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 60 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Oakland and Kansas City at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. It would be easy to jump on the ‘over’ after watching these two offenses race up and down the field in their respective games last Sunday. But I’m going to go the other way, as I have respect for both defenses and don’t believe the Chiefs offense in particular is as good as it showed four days ago. Of course, playing on a short week also factors in as these Thursday night games always seem to trend to the ‘under’. The Raiders got off to a slow start against the Bills last Sunday but responded in a big way in the second half, ultimately cruising to yet another victory. Things will be a little tougher here, as they hit the road to face a Chiefs squad that already beat them by a 26-10 score in Oakland earlier this season (we won with Kansas City in that game). For the Chiefs, I believe they’ll face a lot more resistance against the Raiders than they did against the Falcons. Atlanta set the tone for that Sunday shootout early, scoring on its opening drive – yet the ‘over’ result was still in question in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. Given the fast start from both teams, it was surprising that the game ‘only’ reached 57 points. I expect a return to ‘normal’ here. This is obviously a big game for both teams. I’m anticipating a playoff atmosphere at Arrowhead and I don’t expect either team to give an inch. Take the under (10*). |
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12-04-16 | Chiefs v. Falcons UNDER 50 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon. Despite giving up 27 points in last week's wild overtime win in Denver, I still believe the Chiefs have one of the league's best defenses. The Falcons have been nothing short of explosive on offense this season but I believe they'll face considerable resistance in this one. Meanwhile, the Atlanta defense has been ripped on more than one occasion. However, this unit is coming off a strong performance last week against Arizona, and despite last week's outburst in Denver, the Kansas City offense is by no means a juggernaut. After losing Jeremy Maclin to injury the question lingered as to who would step up to produce in the Chiefs offense. That question was answered in the form of Tyreek Hill, who has been doing it all. But you can be sure the Falcons defense has been game planning for Hill all week long. I'm confident they'll be ready for what the Chiefs have to throw at them on Sunday. The last time these two teams met in 2012 we saw a closing total of 43. That game sailed 'over' the total with Atlanta rolling to a 40-24 road victory. I'm expecting a much different story to unfold on Sunday. Take the under (10*). |
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12-03-16 | Temple v. Navy UNDER 60.5 | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Temple and Navy at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in the AAC Championship Game on Saturday afternoon. Simply put, I believe Temple can slow the high-powered Navy offense. The oddsmakers would seem to be on board with that thinking as well, installing the Midshipmen as a very small favorite in this one. Temple has reeled off 11 straight ATS wins, and has given up just 10 points over its last three contests. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in the Owls last four games. Navy faced a tough schedule this season but came away relatively unscathed, going 9-2 SU. The Middies have posted an 8-3 o/u mark, but again, that has a lot to do with the tough schedule they faced. I see this as a manageable matchup for the Navy defense. The last time these two teams met two years ago they combined to score 55 points, staying just 'under' the posted total. I'm calling for a similar outcome on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-28-16 | Packers v. Eagles UNDER 47.5 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Philadelphia on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Philadelphia on Monday night. The Packers are coming off four straight high-scoring affairs. They've been absolutely beaten down in Tennessee and Washington over the last two weeks but I look for them to hold up better in this spot, particularly on defense. Keep in mind, the Eagles are struggling offensively with rookie QB Carson Wentz looking every bit like a first-year starter over the last several games. The Packers defense is better than it has shown over the last few weeks, only collapsing in the fourth quarter last week in Washington. The Eagles defense doesn't get enough credit. This is a solid unit that has been particularly stout at home, where Philadelphia has gone a perfect 4-0 this season. Even in last week's double-digit loss in Seattle the defense did all it could to keep the team in the game right into the fourth quarter. The last time these two teams met they combined to score 73 points in a Packers rout back in 2014 at Lambeau Field. The two teams are in much different places now, however, with the Packers offense looking disjointed and the Eagles more of a defense-first squad. I simply feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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11-27-16 | Panthers v. Raiders UNDER 50 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Oakland on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'under' in the Panthers win over the Saints last week while missing with the 'under' in the Raiders victory over the Texans on Monday Night Football. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Yes, the Panthers will be without their best defensive player in Luke Kuechly, but I look for the rest of this unit to pick up the slack in his absence. Note that the Panthers have essentially turned in just two poor defensive performances this season, those coming against familiar opponents in the Falcons and Saints on the road. The Raiders offense is explosive, there's no question about that. However, this isn't an unstoppable offense. I don't believe the Raiders defense gets enough credit, noting that they have allowed 20 points or less in three of their last four games. The 'over' is a perfect 4-0 in the Raiders last four contests, but that streak will be seriously tested here with a high number. Take the under (10*). |
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11-25-16 | Arizona State v. Arizona OVER 67.5 | Top | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
CFB Black Friday Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona State and Arizona at 9:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Tucson on Friday night. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Arizona's last game, a 42-17 loss at Oregon State last week. With that being said, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Arizona State hasn't tasted victory since October 8th. The Sun Devils offense has continued to perform at a fairly high level, however, despite a poor showing last week against a powerful Washington squad. With QB Manny Wilkins getting back to full strength there's reason to believe they'll shred the Arizona defense on Friday night. The Wildcats have dealt with injury issues of their own on offense this season. But Solomon and Dawkins are both healthy under center now. They'll be facing a Sun Devils defense that hasn't been able to stop anyone. Keep in mind, last year's meeting between these in-state rivals totaled 89 points. In fact, the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-16 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 51 | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 44 h 59 m | Show |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Dallas on Thursday. This one sets up nicely after the Cowboys delivered a relatively low-scoring win over the Ravens last Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, the Redskins exploded for 42 points in a win over the reeling Packers on Sunday night. I expect to see a strong performance from both offenses in Big D on Thursday. With QB Kirk Cousins once again rounding into form, WR DeSean Jackson back healthy, and some semblance of a running game making an appearance, the Redskins are evolving into one of the more explosive offenses in football. I see this as a manageable matchup against a Cowboys defense that has performed better than advertised at times, but has also proven vulnerable without a number of key cogs. Of course, the Dallas offense has been the talk of the league with rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott going off on a weekly basis. There’s little reason to expect any sort of slowdown from that duo on Thursday. Add in a healthy Dez Bryant and this is an awfully tough offense to slow down, let alone stop these days. We’re dealing with a high total in this one, higher than the number these two teams reached in their first meeting this season. It’s warranted though, as far as I’m concerned. Take the over (10*). |
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11-20-16 | Patriots v. 49ers OVER 51 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 15 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a shootout at Levi's Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Yes, the Patriots will be without Rob Gronkowski but I don't expect that to hold the offense back. Last Sunday night we saw New England struggle against the Seahawks, but they'll face a more favorable matchup here. The 49ers are by no means what they once were defensively, and I'm confident the Pats will expose their weaknesses. San Francisco saw its four-game 'over' streak grind to a halt against the Cardinals last Sunday. Note that the 49ers have put up 43 points over their last two games. I still believe the Niners can have a strong finish to the campaign offensively with Colin Kaepernick locked in under center and Carlos Hyde back healthy. Who could forget the last meeting between these two teams - a Sunday night showdown in Foxboro back in 2012 - a game the 49ers won by a 41-34 score. While I'm not about to predict a game that gets into the 70's, I do believe this lofty total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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11-17-16 | Saints v. Panthers UNDER 52.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Carolina at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Carolina on Thursday night. The Saints are known for their offense and they've certainly performed well on that side of the football in recent weeks, but I'm not convinced they'll enjoy the same success they did in the first meeting between these two teams this season. New Orleans' o-line took a hit with the absence of Terron Armstead last week and he isn't expected to play on Thursday. That's a key injury you won't hear a lot about. Defensively, the Saints turned in one of their better performances of the season last week, even if it was in a losing effort against the Broncos. I look for them to build off of that strong showing here. Of course, the Panthers offense has struggled to regain the form that carried the team all the way to the Super Bowl last February. Cam Newton has been under pressure virtually every snap, and the run game has been non-existent. Meanwhile, the receiving corps leaves a lot to be desired. TE Greg Olsen has been one of the few bright spots on offense. The Panthers defense held up well most of the way against the Chiefs last Sunday, but it wasn't enough as they were unable to hold off a fourth quarter comeback. This defense has been playing well, however, allowing 20 points or less in three straight games. If the Panthers are going to turn things around, the defense will need to lead the way. The last two meetings between these two teams resulted in identical 41-38 scores, with each team winning once. However, the most recent meeting here in Carolina resulted in only 49 points in September of last year. Of course, the Saints were without Drew Brees in that one. I'm not sure it makes a difference as far as the total is concerned here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants UNDER 47.5 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and New York at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in New Jersey on Monday night. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results in their most recent games. In fact, the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 in the Bengals last three games. I don't see that streak continuing here, however. The Bengals have topped out at 31 points this season, and that performance came against the lowly Browns. I don't expect to see them approach that number here. The Giants have topped out at 28 points, doing so last week against the Eagles. It's worth noting that the G-Men scored two quick touchdowns in the first six minutes of that game before putting up only 14 points the rest of the way. Both defenses are better than they have shown and both offenses have been inconsistent at best. I'm surprised so many bettors are quick to back the 'over' in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-16 | Stanford v. Oregon OVER 57 | Top | 52-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and Oregon at 4 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' at Autzen Stadium on Saturday afternoon. We missed the mark with the 'over in Stanford's most recent game - a double-digit win over Oregon State last Saturday. A goal-line stand in the final minutes was all that kept that one from going 'over' (and Stanford from covering the spread). We came out on the wrong end of that one, but I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. The Cardinal at least made some positive strides offensively last week. In fact, Stanford has scored 60 points over its last two games which is major progress considering how it had performed earlier in the campaign. I'm confident we'll see Stanford get loose offensively against a weak Oregon defense that hasn't really slowed anyone down this season. The Ducks have allowed at least 35 points in all six Pac-12 games to date. The good news for Oregon is that it has enjoyed some offensive success this season and I'm not convinced Stanford is quite as good defensively as it has showed in recent weeks. Slowing the Ducks down on this field will be a challenge for the Cardinal, noting that Oregon has scored 53, 44, 38, 21 and 54 points at home this season. Last year's meeting between these two teams barely crept 'over' the total but we were dealing with a higher posted total on that occasion. This number remains in a reasonable range thanks to Stanford's offensive struggles more than anything else. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-16 | Pittsburgh v. Clemson UNDER 65.5 | Top | 43-42 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
ACC Super Total. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. After posting a shutout against Syracuse last Saturday some are anticipating a defensive letdown from Clemson in this matchup, at least based on the relatively high total we're dealing with. However, I'm confident we'll see the Tigers manhandle the Panthers in this one. Pittsburgh put up 28 points in last week's blowout loss at Miami, but it was fortunate to get to that number, thanks to a 100-yard kickoff return. The Panthers offense actually struggled with QB Nathan Peterman completing only 17-of-35 passes and RB James Conner gaining only 40 yards on 12 carries. It's hard to envision the Panthers bouncing back in this tough matchup. I feel that the Panthers are running out of gas after being involved in so many wild, high-scoring affairs early in the season. Yes, they're still in good position to reach a Bowl game but back-to-back losses to Virginia Tech and Miami have struck a blow. Pitt won't be interested in getting involved in another shootout here - it simply doesn't have the the type of defense that could possibly get enough stops down the stretch to prevail. It desperately needs to tighten things up on that side of the football or it is going to get its doors blown off again here. I'm confident we'll see the Clemson defense do enough, and for the offense to take its foot off the gas enough down the stretch to keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-10-16 | Utah v. Arizona State UNDER 57 | Top | 49-26 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Arizona State at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been solid 'over' bets recently, with the 'over' going a perfect 2-0 in each of their last two games. I see that trend changing on Thursday, however. Both the Utes and Sun Devils are coming off bye weeks so they've had plenty of time to get ready for this matchup. Utah will certainly be focused on rebounding defensively after allowing a whopping 76 points in its last two games. The same goes for Arizona State as it has been ripped for 131 points in its last three contests. I'm not sure either squad is interested in another high-octane shootout on Thursday. Note that these two teams have met in each of the last five seasons and none of those games surpassed 52 points. We did see last year's matchup creep 'over' the posted total but we're dealing with a considerably higher number this time around. Take the under (10*). |
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11-05-16 | Arizona v. Washington State OVER 65 | Top | 7-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arizona and Washington State at 4 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Pullman on Saturday afternoon. We played the ‘over’ in Arizona’s blowout loss at home against Stanford last Saturday night, and were never really all that close to cashing that ticket. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well here, however. Arizona did welcome Brandon Dawkins and Anu Solomon back from injuries last Saturday, but both showed some rust. In fact, Solomon threw only three passes. Clearly rust was a factor for both quarterbacks. I’m expecting a far more positive performance from the Wildcats as a whole on Saturday. On the flip side, I don’t see the Wildcats slowing down an underrated Cougars offense. Mike Leach has his offense humming once again, having scored at least 35 points in five of the last six games. There’s little reason to anticipate the Cougars slowing down against a very beatable Wildcats defense. In order to topple this total we’re going to need to get plenty of help from Arizona as well, but Washington State has proven vulnerable defensively, and I don’t see that being an issue. Take the over (10*). |
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10-30-16 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 42.5 | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Dallas on Sunday night. The Eagles put up 21 points in last week's big win over the Vikings at home, even if it had little to do with the offense. Rookie QB Carson Wentz struggled once again but did just enough to guide his team to victory. I expect a better showing from Wentz here as he'll obviously be up for this matchup with the rival Cowboys - the first time he's faced them in his NFL career. Early in this game at least, I'm confident he'll make some big plays for the Eagles offense. On the flip side, I'm looking for another big performance from the Cowboys offense. Tony Romo returned to practice this week and could be close to returning but that should only fuel the fire of rookie QB Dak Prescott. All indications are that Prescott isn't feeling the pressure of playing in front of a proven QB like Romo. And it doesn't hurt that the Cowboys will likely have WR Dez Bryant back on the field, not to mention arguably the best running back in football right now, rookie Ezekiel Elliott. The 'under' has cashed in the Cowboys last three games but I don't see that trend continuing here. In fact, it works in our favor as it helps to keep this total down, as does the fact that the Eagles are coming off a low-scoring affair against defensive-minded Minnesota. The last time the Eagles and Cowboys hooked up they combined to score 60 points in an overtime affair last November. Take the over (10*). |
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10-30-16 | Seahawks v. Saints OVER 48 | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in the Big Easy on Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks are coming off a disappointing 6-6 tie in Arizona last Sunday night, but I look for them to bust out offensively as the scene shifts to the SuperDome in New Orleans on Sunday. Everyone is quick to refer to the Seahawks as a 'struggling' offensive team, even though they had produced at least 26 points in three straight games prior to last week's contest. That's not to mention the fact that most see the Seahawks as an elite defensive squad. But this is a defense that is dealign with some key injuries with Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett sidelined. New Orleans had some big plays, but was ultimately held down by the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium last Sunday. With that being said, outside of a no-show against the Giants in New York, the Saints offense has been rolling all season. They'll certainly be up for this matchup with perennial NFC contenders the Seahawks. When these two teams last met in the playoffs in 2014 they combined to score just 38 points. We're dealing with a much higher posted total this time around, but it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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10-28-16 | San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 44 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -114 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego State and Utah State at 8 pm et on Friday. San Diego State crushed Utah State in last year's meeting - a loss the Aggies certainly haven't forgotten as it sent them into a tailspin that some would say they still haven't recovered from. Here, Utah State will be looking to exact some revenge but I'm not sure they'll be able to do that with standout RB Devonte Mays still not back at full strength. I do expect the Aggies to hang in a little tougher against the nation's leading rusher Donnell Pumphrey. They were ripped to shreds by the RB in last year's matchup, but that was a banged-up Aggies defense. They're at close to full strength now and I'm confident they'll do a better job of at least slowing Pumphrey down. On the flip side, the Aztecs are down a couple of key cogs in their secondary but I'm not sure the Aggies offense can take advantage. Utah State has struggled to complete passes with any consistency since losing RB Mays. It should be another grind on Friday night against a quality Aztecs defense. The 'under' has cashed in San Diego State's last three games. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 2-0 in the Aggies last two contests. We're dealing with a relatively low total here, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-16 | California v. USC UNDER 75.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between California and USC at 10:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Los Angeles on Thursday night. We missed with the 'under' in Cal's most recent game - a wild 52-49 overtime win over Oregon last week. We did deserve a better fate in that one but were ultimately foiled by overtime. Here, I'm willing to go back to the well as I have a lot of respect for the Trojans defense. If anyone is going to slow down the rolling Cal offense, it's USC. The Trojans got steamrolled by Alabama back in the opening week of the season but since then they've tightened up in spite of a tough schedule. Over their last two games, the Trojans gave up just 31 points against Colorado and Arizona. The 'under' has cashed in each of their last three and five of their last six games overall. Cal is capable of playing some defense and I see this as a favorable matchup against a relatively inconsistent USC offense. Note that Trojans standout WR JuJu Smith-Schuster continues to go at less than 100% due to an ailing back. Last year's meeting between these two teams totaled just 48 points. Two years ago they reached 68 points. The oddsmakers can't help but hang out a high total here based on Cal's recent results. I'm just not sure such a high number is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 44 | Top | 25-28 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Miami on Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring affairs last week. The Bills have seen the 'over' cash in their last two games, scoring 30 and 45 points in wins over the Rams and 49ers. Meanwhile, the Dolphins offense got rolling against the Steelers last week, putting up 30 points. But make no mistake, this is still a plodding Miami offense as far as I'm concerned. RB Jay Ajayi had a breakout performance last week and essentially carried the offense. The Fins are still content to dink and dunk their way down the field with Ryan Tannehill under center. I'm not convinced the Bills are quite as good offensively as they've shown in the last couple of weeks. They'll face a Fins squad that will certainly have its guard up after allowing a whopping 74 points in two meetings - both losses - last year. Buffalo has played three road games this season, and two of those totaled 20 points or less. Note that prior to last season, the 'under' had cashed in five of the previous six meetings in this series. Expect a return to form here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-16 | Titans v. Dolphins OVER 43 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Miami on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark with the Titans last week in Houston as they simply couldn't get enough stops and gave up a big punt return touchdown en route to a seven-point loss. I certainly didn't come away impressed by the Tennessee defense in that game, even if it did manage to limit the Texans offensive unit to only 20 points. Now it goes up against a Miami squad that will likely start slinging the football all over the field with the running game simply not working. The Dolphins should be able to have some success through the air with the trio of Stills, Landry and Parker. Last week they were completely shut down by a quality Bengals defense but an easier test awaits this Sunday. Offensively, I believe the Titans are far better than they have shown so far this season. Marcus Mariota was shaky last week but I'm confident he'll bounce back in this spot. I'm also confident that the Titans ground game can find some running room against an aggressive Dolphins front line. We won with the 'under' in the Fins loss in Cincinnati last week but I won't hesitate to switch gears here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-16 | Army v. Duke OVER 46.5 | Top | 6-13 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Army and Duke at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' at Wallace Wade Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Army has made positive strides offensively this season, even if it didn't show it last week in an overtime loss at Buffalo. Prior to that setback, the Black Knights were a perfect 3-0, scoring 28, 31 and 66 points. Here, I look for the Black Knights to bounce back against a very beatable Duke defense. Despite allowing 35 and 34 points in their last two games, I'm not sure we've seen the worst the Blue Devils defense has to offer to be honest. There have been times this season where Duke has looked like a quality defensive squad but that was against the likes of North Carolina Central, Wake Forest and Northwestern (the latter being the most impressive performance). Duke is more than comfortable getting involved in a shootout, as we saw two weeks ago in that wild win at Notre Dame (we cashed with the Blue Devils in that one). The Blue Devils will certainly be looking to get loose again offensively after a poor performance at home against Virginia last week (we won with Virginia in that game). And the Blue Devils should be able to thrive offensively against an Army defense that has had it pretty easy this season, facing Temple, Rice, UTEP and Buffalo. Last year's matchup between these two teams totaled only 47 points as Army was a no-show offensively. We're looking at almost an identical closing total this time around but I believe it could be higher. Take the over (10*). |
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10-06-16 | Temple v. Memphis OVER 60.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 26 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Temple and Memphis at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Memphis on Thursday night. This matchup reminds me a little bit of a primetime opportunity the Memphis Tigers enjoyed early last season - a game they won by a 53-46 score over Cincinnati - easily eclipsing the seemingly high closing total of 70. Here, we're dealing with a much lower total, and only a slight adjustment from last year, when we saw a closing number of 57 points in this same matchup between Temple and Memphis. The Owls got the better of the Tigers on that day, winning by a 31-12 score. I'm anticipating a far more competitive affair this time around. There are a lot of new faces on the Memphis offense, namely at the quarterback position with Paxton Lynch having moved on to the Denver Broncos. But the Tigers haven't missed a beat, scoring at will through their first four games. Their balanced attack should give Temple plenty of trouble on Thursday night, but I question how many stops the Tigers can get defensively. They faced what was essentially their first real test of the season last week and gave up 48 points in a blowout loss at Ole Miss. Temple has an experienced offense that is firing on all cylinders right now, coming off back-to-back 40+ point performances. When you think of the Owls you don't generally think of offense, but this is a group that has really come around in that regard. They're well tested on the road as well, having hung in there in a close loss at Penn State earlier this season - a game in which they scored a respectable 27 points. This hasn't been a particularly high-scoring matchup in the last three meetings over the last three years, but I believe that changes here in 2016. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington OVER 44.5 | Top | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and Washington at 9 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' at Husky Stadium on Friday night. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Stanford's most recent game - a 22-13 win at UCLA last Saturday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. It took a while for the Cardinal offense to get rolling against the Bruins but I do expect them to turn in a much more efficient performance in this matchup. There's no question they're still working out some kinks with a new starting quarterback. But the pieces are in place for this offense to start taking strides forward. Washington has been electric offensively and is fresh off a big 35-28 overtime win at Arizona (we won with the Wildcats ATS in that game). I don't believe the Huskies are interested in a bruising, defensive-minded affair here. Not at home. I look for them to set the tone early as they look to knock the Cardinal defense down a peg or two. This hasn't been a high-scoring series, with the 'under' cashing in five of the last seven meetings. However, that actually works in our favor here - combined with the fact that the Cardinal have seen the 'under' cash in all three of their games so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 12 m | Show |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Miami and Cincinnati at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Cincinnati on Thursday night. The Dolphins were involved in a wild 30-24 overtime affair against the Browns last week but let’s not get too carried away by that high-scoring result. Scoring 24 points in regulation time against a team the caliber of the Browns is no real accomplishment. This is still very much a ‘dink and dunk’ offense with Ryan Tannehill at the helm as far as I’m concerned. They’ll move the football at times on Thursday night but I’m not convinced they’ll put a lot of ‘7’s on the board. Defensively, the Fins gave up plenty of yardage but when it was all said and done, allowed just one offensive touchdown against the Browns last Sunday. This is still a quality defense, particularly up front, and they’ll need to bring their ‘A’ game to contend with a highly-motivated 1-2 Bengals squad on Thursday night. I don’t like the effort the Bengals have put forth on offense so far this season. It’s pretty much been A.J. Green or bust and while that can work at times, it’s not a feasible long-term strategy. They need to get RB Giovani Bernard in particular more involved, but I’m not sure the Dolphins will give them a great deal of open space on Thursday night. Cincinnati remains a stout defensive squad, even if it has shown some cracks so far this season. It's worth noting the Bengals have faced a tough schedule including matchups with Pittsburgh and Denver. Look for this game to play out just the way the Bengals like it – I’m confident we’ll see enough of a slugfest to keep this one ‘under’ the total on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 41.5 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Tampa on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark badly with the 'over' in the Rams most recent game - a big home win over the Seahawks last Sunday. L.A. couldn't get anything going offensively in that game, but it was also up against a premier defensive unit. Different story here on Sunday as the Rams head to Tampa to take on the Bucs. Tampa Bay has been involved in back-to-back relatively high-scoring affairs, however the Bucs did little to help their own cause last week in a 40-7 loss against the Cardinals. I do expect to see the Bucs bounce back offensively here as they return home for the first time this season. Don't be fooled by last week's game against a hungry Cards squad. This Bucs offense has improved with QB Jameis Winston coming into his own in the pro ranks. The Rams are a good defensive team, but not a great one. Remember, in their opener they got ran all over in a 28-0 rout at the hands of the 49ers. They were fired up last week in their first game back in L.A. but here it may be a little tougher to get up for the opposition. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-16 | Penn State v. Michigan UNDER 56.5 | Top | 10-49 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Michigan at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Ann Arbor on Saturday afternoon. The 'over' is a combined 6-0 in these two teams' six games so far this season. That only serves to give us value with the 'under' in this matchup, however. Note that the last two meetings in this series have totaled just 31 and 44 points. I don't believe that Penn State is as efficient offensively as it has shown through its first three games. Note that the Nittany Lions have faced Kent State, Pitt, and Temple - not exactly three defensive powerhouses. Michigan has rolled past three very beatable opponents in Hawaii, UCF, and Colorado. The Wolverines will taking a step up in class here, and I believe they're in for a battle. We'll see some big plays in this game but the total has ultimately been set too high based on recent results. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 41 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New England at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll play the 'under' in Foxborough on Thursday night. The Texans defense has held up well through two games - of course, those two games have come at home against two weak offensive squads in the Bears and Chiefs. Those performances should serve to give them a nice confidence boost, however, and it's not as if they're facing a Patriots offense that is at full strength. On the flip side of the equation, Bill Bellichick is known for his ability to have his team take away their opponent's best weapon and I expect that to hold true on Thursday as they do everything they can to minimize DeAndre Hopkins' contribution. The Texans still have other weapons but I don't have a lot of faith in QB Brock Osweiler lighting up this Patriots defense. New England gave up its share of points against Miami last week, but most of those points were scored when the game was already out of hand. The Patriots offense has been performing well but will undoubtedly take a step back with Jacoby Brissett under center. These two teams met last year in Houston and that game totaled just 33 points. I'm expecting more of the same this time around. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-16 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech UNDER 58 | Top | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Clemson and Georgia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Thursday night. I have a lot of respect for both of these programs. While I do feel the pointspread has been set just about right in this one, I can't help but feel the oddsmakers have missed the mark with the total. Both teams roll into this matchup 3-0. I do feel that if Clemson brings its 'A' game it should have little trouble brushing aside the Yellow Jackets, in particular manhandling them defensively. With that being said, Georgia Tech is unlikely to roll over. The Yellow Jackets are more than capable of churning out some long drives, even if they don't end in scores. That would certainly serve its purpose, keeping the electric Clemson offense off the field. This has been an 'over' series in recent years, with three of the last four meetings sailing over the number. However, the last time they met here, we saw just 34 total points scored in 2014. Too many long drives should help keep this one 'under' the total as well. Take the under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy Football Top Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-29-18 | Texas v. Kansas State OVER 48 | Top | 19-14 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
09-28-18 | UCLA v. Colorado OVER 60.5 | Top | 16-38 | Loss | -107 | 84 h 42 m | Show |
09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams OVER 49 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 25 m | Show |
09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions OVER 53.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
09-22-18 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 56 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 6 m | Show |
09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple UNDER 58 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 2 m | Show |
09-16-18 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
09-15-18 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State UNDER 58 | Top | 42-25 | Loss | -107 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest OVER 51 | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 56 h 8 m | Show |
09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions UNDER 45 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
09-09-18 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 51 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
09-08-18 | Arizona v. Houston UNDER 72 | Top | 18-45 | Win | 100 | 63 h 34 m | Show |
09-07-18 | TCU v. SMU UNDER 58.5 | Top | 42-12 | Win | 100 | 73 h 56 m | Show |
01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers OVER 41 | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 37.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers OVER 42 | Top | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
12-02-17 | Memphis v. Central Florida UNDER 81 | Top | 55-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
11-30-17 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
11-25-17 | Connecticut v. Cincinnati OVER 57.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
11-19-17 | Chiefs v. Giants OVER 45 | Top | 9-12 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
11-18-17 | Georgia Tech v. Duke OVER 46.5 | Top | 20-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
11-18-17 | Rice v. Old Dominion OVER 53 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
11-12-17 | Chargers v. Jaguars OVER 40.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
11-04-17 | Arizona v. USC UNDER 76.5 | Top | 35-49 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 43 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 42.5 | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
10-28-17 | Georgia v. Florida OVER 43.5 | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
10-21-17 | Akron v. Toledo OVER 60.5 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 47 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 38-52 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 40 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
10-07-17 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina UNDER 63 | Top | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
09-23-17 | Duke v. North Carolina UNDER 60 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
09-17-17 | Bears v. Bucs OVER 43 | Top | 7-29 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 13 m | Show |
09-16-17 | Ole Miss v. California OVER 71.5 | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
09-15-17 | UMass v. Temple OVER 52 | Top | 21-29 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
09-09-17 | Boise State v. Washington State UNDER 58 | Top | 44-47 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
09-02-17 | BYU v. LSU UNDER 47 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 50 m | Show |
08-31-17 | Ohio State v. Indiana UNDER 58 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 51 m | Show |
01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs OVER 44.5 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers OVER 45.5 | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
12-18-16 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 59 m | Show |
12-15-16 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 38.5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
12-08-16 | Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 47 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 60 h 15 m | Show |
12-04-16 | Chiefs v. Falcons UNDER 50 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
12-03-16 | Temple v. Navy UNDER 60.5 | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
11-28-16 | Packers v. Eagles UNDER 47.5 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
11-27-16 | Panthers v. Raiders UNDER 50 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
11-25-16 | Arizona State v. Arizona OVER 67.5 | Top | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
11-24-16 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 51 | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 44 h 59 m | Show |
11-20-16 | Patriots v. 49ers OVER 51 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 15 m | Show |
11-17-16 | Saints v. Panthers UNDER 52.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants UNDER 47.5 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
11-12-16 | Stanford v. Oregon OVER 57 | Top | 52-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
11-12-16 | Pittsburgh v. Clemson UNDER 65.5 | Top | 43-42 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
11-10-16 | Utah v. Arizona State UNDER 57 | Top | 49-26 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
11-05-16 | Arizona v. Washington State OVER 65 | Top | 7-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
10-30-16 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 42.5 | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
10-30-16 | Seahawks v. Saints OVER 48 | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
10-28-16 | San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 44 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -114 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
10-27-16 | California v. USC UNDER 75.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 44 | Top | 25-28 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
10-09-16 | Titans v. Dolphins OVER 43 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
10-08-16 | Army v. Duke OVER 46.5 | Top | 6-13 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
10-06-16 | Temple v. Memphis OVER 60.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 26 m | Show |
09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington OVER 44.5 | Top | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 12 m | Show |
09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 41.5 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
09-24-16 | Penn State v. Michigan UNDER 56.5 | Top | 10-49 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 41 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
09-22-16 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech UNDER 58 | Top | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |