Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-15-22 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
AFC West total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. In a division game on a short week at this early stage of the season, I'm not anticipating a lot of first half offensive fireworks between the Chargers and Chiefs on Thursday night. Note that this same matchup produced just 17 and 24 points in the first half in two meetings last year. The Chargers have seen six of their last seven September games stay 'under' the total in the first half and the 'under' is 9-4 in the first half in all Chargers games where the first half total has been set at 25 points or more going back to 2020. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have appeared in two Thursday night games over the last two seasons and both got off to low-scoring starts with the 'under' cashing in the first half. In the long-term picture, the 'under' is 35-19 in the first half in the Chiefs last 54 games played in the first month of the season. I'm not convinced the Kansas City offense is going to be quite as explosive as we saw in last week's rout of the Cardinals, noting that Arizona's blitz-happy nature on defense really opened things up for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. The Chargers can stay home a little more and still generate pressure with the likes of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack on the outside. On the flip side, the Chargers always seem to generate a ton of early season hype before fizzling late. I don't expect them to roll into Arrowhead and lay waste to a good Chiefs defense - at least not early in Thursday's contest. Take the first half under (10*). |
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09-11-22 | Eagles v. Lions OVER 48.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 55 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be one of the most entertaining games on the Week 1 board. While we're dealing with a reasonably high posted total, I believe it could be even higher. Philadelphia is well-positioned to smash in this spot offensively. The Lions are an intriguing sleeper pick in the NFC North this season but that optimism has a lot more to do with their offense than their defense. That defense might just be awful and certainly doesn't get better after losing pass rusher Romeo Okwara to the PUP list. Philadelphia's offense should take flight in Jalen Hurts' second year as the starting QB. He'll be given plenty of help with an improved cast of receivers led by one of the best in the game in A.J. Brown. Perhaps what isn't getting enough attention is the strength of the Eagles offensive line, which should help give Hurts the opportunity to put up monster numbers this season. RB Miles Sanders and WR Devonta Smith are two keys at the skill positions that aren't being talked about enough in this offense either and set up well to go off in this particular matchup. Defensively, the Eagles are stout at the back-end but appear average at best up front and in the middle of the field. That plays right into the hands of a Lions offense that has two gamebreakers in RB De'Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown that are adept at attacking the middle of the football field. With Swift back healthy he's in for a monster season, operating behind an underrated Lions offensive line. I'm higher on QB Jared Goff than some, feeling that he's an excellent fit in this offense. We certainly saw him build terrific chemistry with St. Brown down the stretch last year (he had few other options to throw to at the time) and I'm confident that duo will pick up right where they left off here. While I like the Eagles to win this game, the Lions will undoubtedly be a 'tough out' playing in front of a rare packed house at Ford Field. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-22 | Mississippi State v. Arizona OVER 58.5 | Top | 39-17 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 24 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Mississippi State and Arizona at 11 pm et on Saturday. We won with Mississippi State in its rout of Memphis last Saturday but I'll shift gears this week and back the 'over' as the Bulldogs take their show on the road to face upstart Arizona in Tucson. There was a lot to like about the Bulldogs offense last week as it scored four touchdowns in the game's first 28 minutes before adding three more in the second half. I liked the way they kept their foot on the gas for four quarters (what else would you expect from a Mike Leach offense?), tacking on a touchdown in the game's closing minutes after Memphis had narrowed the gap to 42-23 less than a minute earlier. The Mississippi State defense was able to pin its ears back and attack the Memphis offense after jumping ahead earlier. I expect a different game script to unfold this time around, however. That's because Arizona actually has a legitimate football team this year, as evidenced by last week's stunning 38-20 rout of San Diego State (the Aztecs were opening their brand new home stadium making the victory that much more impressive). The Wildcats offense looked much different with QB Jayden De Laura under center and UTEP transfer WR Jacob Cowing blowing the top off the Aztecs defense. De Laura threw for just shy of 300 yards and four touchdowns in the victory. San Diego State wasn't able to mount any sort of offensive attack but I think that had more to do with transfer QB Braxton Burmeister looking lost in his first game running a new offense (trailing by two touchdowns early in the second quarter didn't help the Aztecs as they're generally a front-running team that likes to pound the football and control the clock). Different story here as this matchup has true shootout potential. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-22 | Kentucky v. Florida UNDER 53 | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 103 h 31 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and Florida at 7 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter Saturday's showdown in the Swamp off to 1-0 records. This rivalry has produced plenty of relatively low-scoring contests over the years. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time the two teams totalled more than 50 points. While Florida certainly impressed offensively behind a tremendous performance from QB Anthony Richardson in last week's upset win over Utah, it won't benefit from the same element of surprise against the Wildcats. It's not as if Florida tore through the Utes defense last Saturday. In fact, it only managed to score 14 points through the game's first three quarters. I came away impressed by the Gators defense as they allowed an early touchdown in the first four minutes but then held the Utes out of the end zone until the closing seconds of the third quarter. They also came up with a game-clinching interception in the end zone as the clock ticked down in the fourth quarter. Here, the Gators will benefit from facing a Kentucky offense that is reworking its offensive line after a host of departures (it yielded four sacks to QB Will Levis in the opener) and also dealing with the absence of standout RB Chris Rodriguez. Kentucky did score 37 points in last week's victory but that came against a middling MAC squad in Miami-Ohio. The Wildcats scored a touchdown midway through the first quarter but then didn't reach the end zone on offense again until being gifted terrific field position thanks to a Redhawks turnover early in the third quarter (they did return the second half kickoff for a touchdown as well). On the flip side, Kentucky gave up a touchdown in the first six minutes of that game but then held Miami-Ohio out of the end zone for the game's final 54 minutes. I can't help but feel the Wildcats defense is well ahead of the offense at this early stage of the season. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-22 | Memphis v. Navy OVER 51 | Top | 37-13 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 1 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Navy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This total has dropped since opening, an overreaction to Navy's ugly 14-7 loss to FCS squad Delaware in its season-opener last week. Here, I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair as the Midshipmen look to avenge last year's 35-17 rout at the hands of Memphis. The Tigers dropped a 49-23 decision at Mississippi State last Saturday (we won with the Bulldogs in that game). Their defense, which struggled last year, has lost a number of key parts and it certainly showed against Mississippi State as they gave up five touchdowns in the first 35 minutes. Even when the game had long been decided, the Bulldogs were able to tack on two touchdowns in the final six minutes of the fourth quarter. The good news is, Memphis did manage to score 20+ points despite going entirely one-dimensional early on. RB Jeyvon Ducker - a transfer from Northern Illinois - was a bright spot, running for 63 yards and a score on just five carries. I do think the potential is there for the Tigers offense to go off against an average Navy defense that certainly doesn't get better by losing a talent like Diego Fagot to the NFL. Fagot isn't the only departure from a Navy defense that wasn't all that great to begin with last year (as I mentioned earlier, the Midshipmen gave up 35 points in last year's matchup against Memphis). Navy's offense was putrid against Delaware last week. There's no reason to expect the Midshipmen to be that bad offensively here in 2022. They did gain 319 total yards in that setback and had 17 first downs compared to Delaware's 13. Three failed fourth down conversions contributed to Navy's downfall in that contest. I believe the potential is there for this one to go back-and-forth all afternoon long and we're being offered a favorable total to work with when you consider last year's meeting saw a closing number of 56. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-22 | Boise State v. New Mexico UNDER 45.5 | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 86 h 10 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and New Mexico at 9 pm et on Friday. This total has already dropped from the opener and I believe the move is warranted. Boise State was stunned 34-17 on the road against Oregon State in its season-opener last Saturday. While most are expecting the Broncos to take out their frustrations on a hapless New Mexico squad on Friday (and that very well could happen), I'm not anticipating a shootout. The Broncos actually benched QB Hank Bachmeier after a shaky start against the Beavers last week. While this might look like an ideal bounce-back spot at first glance, Boise State can ill afford to overlook the Lobos, who are coming off a 41-0 rout of FCS squad Maine last week. While it's highly unlikely we see New Mexico hang another crooked number on the scoreboard, I'm confident its defense can hang. This is an experienced and talented group that got off to about as good of a start as you could hope for, holding Maine to just 118 total yards in the shutout victory. Boise State didn't even manage to score a point until a field goal nearly three minutes into the third quarter against Oregon State. It didn't find the end zone until the final three minutes of that third quarter, when the game was already all but out of reach. This isn't the same Boise State offensive juggernaut that we've seen in years' past. While their offense remains a question mark, I certainly expect a better performance from the Broncos defense this week. New Mexico did put up 41 points in its season-opening win but it was actually held scoreless through the first quarter and there weren't a whole lot of explosive plays. Kansas transfer QB Miles Kendrick threw for only 170 yards, the Lobos leading rusher tallied just 58 yards and their top receiver racked up only 54 yards. Maine simply couldn't get off the field defensively but we can anticipate a much different story playing out here, noting that Boise State shut out New Mexico in last year's meeting. Take the under (10*). |
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09-01-22 | Central Michigan v. Oklahoma State UNDER 60.5 | Top | 44-58 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 24 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Oklahoma State at 7 pm et on Thursday. It may surprise you to find out that Central Michigan finished 24th in the entire country in total offense last season. So perhaps it's understandable that we're dealing with a total just shy of 60 in this season-opener against Oklahoma State. The issue for the Chips this year, as if often the case with these smaller schools, is roster turnover. Last year's standout WR Kalil Pimpleton is trying out for the Detroit Lions. The offensive line lost a pair of tackles to the NFL. There are going to be some growing pains early on but I do think the Chips can at the very least move the football consistently enough to keep the offense on the field for extended stretches, even in the face of a fierce defensive opponent in Oklahoma State. One thing is for sure, Central Michigan will have little interest in getting involved in a high-scoring shootout here in Week 1. The uglier the game, the better the chances of the Chips staging a massive upset. Not unlike the offense, the CMU defense will be missing a number of key pieces from last year's group. It's not a surprising that a number of the Chips top defenders from a year ago were hot commodities in the transfer portal (and the NFL Draft) as this is a unit that ranked tops in the entire country in tackles for loss. Interestingly, the secondary was the weakness last year but could turn out to be a strength here in 2022. I don't anticipate the Chips defense trying to be too cute in this difficult matchup, instead look for a gameplan that will involve keeping everything in front of them in an effort to keep the Cowboys explosive offense in check. Oklahoma State has had a tendency to get off to slow starts offensively in recent years, putting up 16 points in a win over Tulsa two years ago and 23 points in a victory over FCS squad Missouri State in last season's opener. The return of QB Spencer Sanders will have most expecting the Cowboys offense to come storming out of the gate. I do think there were enough offseason losses to warrant some pause as far as expectations go, at least in Week 1. The Cowboys lose two starters on the offensive line including current Philadelphia Eagle Josh Sills. Top wide receiver Tay Martin is off to the NFL as well. That's not to mention the absence of standout RB duo Jaylen Warren and Dezmon Jackson. No team registered more sacks last season than Oklahoma State and while there are a number of notable departures on defense, those returning and those shuffling in are exceptional. The return of Trace Ford from injury only adds to an already dominant pass rush. Let's keep it brief by saying there are just enough key pieces moving on to allow the Chips to at least have a hope of moving the chains and ultimately keeping the Oklahoma State offense off the field long enough to help keep this one 'under' the generous total, but don't expect any miracles from the CMU offense. Take the under (10*). |
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08-27-22 | Nevada v. New Mexico State UNDER 53.5 | Top | 23-12 | Win | 100 | 272 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and New Mexico State at 2 pm et on Saturday August 27th. This total has been dropping since opening in the mid-to-high 50's but I believe we still have plenty of wiggle room at the current number. We actually cashed with the 'under' in New Mexico's season-opener last year and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Nevada isn't the same team that lit it up under the leadership of dynamic duo QB Carson Strong and WR Romeo Doubs in recent years. Both have moved on with Doubs currently turning heads at Green Bay Packers training camp. Projected starting QB this year, Nate Cox was charged with a DUI earlier this summer, leaving his availability in question leading up to the season-opener. It's no sure thing that he'll even lock up the starting QB job, regardless of his legal trouble, even after he received some playing time during the regular season and started the Wolf Pack's Bowl game last year. I would anticipate the Wolf Pack leaning heavily on their experienced 1-2 punch at running back, at least early in the campaign. Their defense should also be ahead of the offense in the early stages of the campaign, even though that unit loses plenty of talent from last year's team. It was a deep defense a year ago with plenty of experienced players ready to step in and take on bigger roles this year. DT Dom Peterson is an anchor up front while Michigan transfer at CB, Darion Warren-Green should lead the back-end. New Mexico State is coming off another lost season in 2021 and the potential is there for this to be a down year as well, before the Aggies finally find a home in Conference-USA next season. New Mexico State has another QB battle brewing in August but that's not necessarily a good thing as that only means that no one seems capable or ready to step up and take the reins. Expect NMSU to once again rely on pounding the football behind an offensive line that returns three starters from a year ago. New head coach Jerry Kill has a run-first mentality and with a questionable-at-best aerial attack, there's even more reason to keep the ball on the ground early this season. The Aggies return eight starters from last year's defense. Whether that's a good or bad thing is up for debate considering just how bad that unit was in 2021. I'm willing to be a little more optimistic than most as I like the pieces the Aggies have in place on the line and in the linebacking corps. The question is whether the secondary can hold up, but this is a favorable matchup against a rebuilding Nevada passing game that still isn't set on a starting QB, and whose best talent might be Arizona transfer WR B.J. Casteel who is learning a new offense and will have had precious few reps with whoever ends up the starter at QB. Take the under (10*). |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
NFL Playoffs First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 3:05 pm et on Sunday,. The Chiefs have now seen the first half 'over' cash in five straight games. I believe that streak comes to an end on Sunday. The stakes are obviously sky-high in this one as Kansas City looks to advance to a third consecutive Super Bowl while the Bengals look to get there well ahead of schedule in the Joe Burrow era. There's been a pretty solid pattern developing with Bengals first half totals away from home. Cincinnati has scored just 9.6 points on average in the first half on the road this season - north of three points fewer than their overall first half scoring average. While the Chiefs don't figure to generate the same level of pressure on Burrow that the Titans did last week, Kansas City still boasts a capable defense that has excelled in the first half at home this season, giving up just 9.1 points on average. The Bengals defense wasn't pushed all that hard by the Titans last Saturday but it will be here. With that being said, this is a capable defense that I believe can hold up well, at least in the early stages of this game. I certainly don't expect to see the Bengals serve as a 'swinging gate' the way they did in their regular season meeting with the Chiefs, when they gave up a whopping 28 first half points. Keep in mind, after making halftime adjustments, they held the Chiefs vaunted offense to just three points in the entire second half, so we do know they're capable. I'm not convinced that either team wants to get involved in the type of shootout we saw in Cincinnati. Both offenses are certainly capable but effectively shortening this game might be the best course of action for both squads given the talent on the opposing sideline. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in the first half over the last three seasons with the Chiefs having gained an average of over 450 total yards per contest over their last three games, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average first half total of just 24.1 points. Take the first half under (10*). |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs UNDER 55 | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -105 | 130 h 17 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have been involved in a pair of high-scoring shootouts going back to last year's playoffs so it's not surprising that we're dealing with a total in the mid-50's in advance of Sunday's Divisional Round showdown in Kansas City. I believe that total will prove too high. Both defenses are for the most part healthy entering this clash (with the exception of Tre'Davious White for the Bills who has been sidelined for quite some time). While the offenses generally get all of the press, the two defenses are elite. The Bills check in allowing just 17.5 points per game on the road this season. The Chiefs give up 17.9 points per game at home. While the Chiefs have supreme confidence in their ability to go back-and-forth with any offense in the league, there is some reason for caution here after Buffalo rolled up well over 400 yards and hung 38 points on them here at Arrowhead Stadium back in October. I think it would be foolish to expect a similar performance from the Buffalo offense here, however. The Chiefs defense was a mess going into that matchup, having allowed 29, 36, 30 and 30 points over their first four games of the season. Since then, Kansas City has allowed 21 points or less in nine of 13 games and that 21-point performance came by way of a defensive score from the Steelers last Sunday. The Bills defense has had a giant chip on its shoulder ever since getting run over by the Patriots ground game in that memorable Monday night affair back in early December. They've given up just 77 points over their last five games. I have a lot of respect for both offenses and they'll undoubtedly find some success in this game. But we're talking about an extremely high total here - too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans OVER 47 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -108 | 123 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We got what we wanted with a relatively low-scoring game in the Bengals playoff debut last Saturday. Cincinnati has had a tendency to ease off the gas offensively in games where it hasn't needed to trade scores and we certainly saw that against the Raiders. With that being said, there was nothing I saw from the Bengals offense in that game that gave me pause looking ahead to playing the 'over' in this matchup. Cincinnati was able to move the football up and down the field with little resistance against the Raiders and I like the way it matches up against the Titans as well. Tennessee faced an extremely soft stretch of defensive opponents over the second half of the season. Look at their lineup of opponents going back to Week 10; New Orleans, Houston, New England, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, San Francisco (in a game where Jimmy Garoppolo injured his thumb), Miami and Houston again. Not surprisingly, the Titans defense posted some solid numbers over that stretch while their offense was able to tread water and do just enough to earn the number-one seed. Now the Titans defense will certainly be tested, but I also think their offense will be more than up to the challenge, noting that they're expected to get RB Derrick Henry back on the field while the Bengals lost a number of key defensive cogs to injury in last week's win, with Larry Ogunjobi already ruled out and Trey Hendrickson and Mike Daniels' status still up in the air. These two teams actually matched up last season and combined to score 51 points in a Bengals win in Cincinnati. That game saw a closing total of 49 points. Remember, earlier this season the Titans regularly saw totals posted in the 50's - in six of their first nine games, in fact. This total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 50 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. As much as we'd all like to see an entertaining, back-and-forth shootout to close out Wild Card weekend, I don't think we're going to get it when the Cards and Rams match up for the third time this season on Monday night. The Arizona offense is a shadow of its former self right now. It seems like an eternity ago that the Cards boatraced the Rams in a 37-20 stunner here at So-Fi Stadium back in early October. Let's face it, the Cards offense has been hamstrung since losing WE DeAndre Hopkins. The fact that TE Zach Ertz has essentially become the focal point of the passing game is telling. QB Kyler Murray has been running for his life most games (he was sacked five times against Seattle last week). Now he faces a Rams defense that has seemingly figured him out, holding him to just eight all-purpose touchdowns in six career matchups not to mention a very pedestrian 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The last time these two teams met Murray had the benefit of facing a Rams defense that was without Jalen Ramsey due to Covid protocols. With all of that being said, there is a path for the Cards to stay competitive in this game and that involves effectively shortening it by running the football (both James Conner and Chase Edmonds are apparently good to go health-wise) and playing smart, fundamentally-sound defense. Let's face it, the Cards defense wasn't good in last week's loss to the Seahawks. We know they're capable of better though and there is help on the way with J.J. Watt, Jordan Phillips and Marco Wilson expected back from injury. No Watt isn't the game-changer he once was, but his presence is a factor on this defense. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Cards have come off a game in which they allowed 30+ points, with that situation producing an average total of just 41.6 points. The 'under' is also an identical 12-4 in Arizona's last 16 road games and Los Angeles' last 16 home games with those games producing totals well below the number we're working with here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 44.5 | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season way back in mid-September. We're likely to see a much different story unfold here as the Packers have little to play for and will likely only field their starters, on offense in particular, for a cameo appearance on Sunday afternoon in Detroit. As for the Lions, their offense has become depleted over the course of the season, missing TE T.J. Hockenson in particular. Despite 35+ pass attempts in four of its last five games, Detroit has topped out at 272 passing yards over that stretch with that performance coming in its first victory of the season against the defense-optional Vikings. I would anticipate a RB De'Andre Swift-centric offensive gameplan from the Lions here and the Packers likely wouldn't oppose to that as they look to get this game over with as quickly as possible and move on to playoff preparations. Note that both regular season meetings between these two NFC North rivals haven't gone 'over' the total since back in 2017. Take the under (10*). |
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01-08-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | Top | 51-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. |
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01-02-22 | Jaguars v. Patriots OVER 41 | Top | 10-50 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've won with the 'over' in games involving the Jaguars in each of the last two weeks and I won't hesitate to go back to the well again here as we once again deal with a total set in the low-40's. Jacksonville has at least shown some life since ousting much-maligned head coach Urban Meyer. Over the last two games we've seen the Jags attempt a whopping 77 passes, completing 48 of those for well over 400 yards. That's progress as far as I'm concerned. Of course, we should temper expectations here as those last two performances came against the lowly Texans and Jets. That being said, I would expect to see the Jags stay aggressive as a massive underdog here. What do they have to lose? The Patriots on the other hand should absolutely go off in this bounce-back spot off last week's home loss against the Bills. The Jags have shown no semblance of run defense whatsoever, last week allowing the Jets to rush for a whopping 273 yards. That was before they lost a number of run-stuffers to the Covid list late in the week. Here, we'll note that Patriots home games have totalled an average of just shy of 50 points this season. Meanwhile, the Jags for all their problems still put up over 14 points per contest on the road, with those games averaging just shy of 42 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin OVER 41 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Bowl First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Arizona State and Wisconsin at 10:30 pm et on Thursday.
This is one of the lowest totals we'll see during Bowl season and while I can certainly understand the logic behind it, I believe it sets us up well to attack the first half total with a play on the 'over'. The common line of thinking here is that Wisconsin is going to pound the football all night long while Arizona State simply looks to possess the football for extended stretches and ultimately shorten this game in an effort to stay competitive. I actually think we'll see the Sun Devils and Badgers both take some shots down the field early on, however, in an effort to catch the opposing stout defenses off guard and open things up for the ground games to go off later in the contest. In other words, I can certainly see the game getting off to a relatively high-scoring start before the defenses and ground games settle in. Note that the Sun Devils saw an average total of 28.8 points scored in the first half in their games played away from home this season. Their defense certainly looked beatable away from Tempe, giving up 17 points per game in the first half. Wisconsin's defense allowed 1.5 points per game more in the first half away from home compared to at home, with its road contests totalling an average of 19.8 points - just shy of the number we're working with tonight. I have plenty of respect for the Wisconsin defense but here it will be facing a different type of offense than it's accustomed to seeing in the Big 10, with Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels a dual-threat capable of creating splash plays with his arm or his legs. Meanwhile, Badgers fans are hoping this can be a lift-off game for QB Graham Mertz heading into 2022, something they've of course been starving for all season. Look for him to be afforded the opportunity to push the ball down field early on. Take the first half over (10*). |
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12-29-21 | Iowa State v. Clemson OVER 44 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa State and Clemson at 5:45 pm et on Wednesday. This is one of the lowest posted totals we'll see in Bowl season. I believe it will prove too low. Iowa State is in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here as Clemson ran the football 40+ times in six of its final 10 regular season games, and it had plenty of success doing so, particularly at the tail-end of the season as it piled up nearly 600 rushing yards in its final two contests. Only one of the Cyclones 12 opponents this season ran the football 40+ times. Note that two of their final three opponents gained over 200 yards on the ground. Of course, running the football equates to time off the clock. I'm not overly concerned, however, as I do feel the Clemson ground game should only serve to open things up for the pass. On the flip side, Iowa State is going to sling the football all over the field, especially without RB Breece Hall. The Cyclones threw the football 39, 42, 52 and 30 times over their final four regular season games, racking up over 300 yards passing in three of those games while scoring a whopping 48 points in the other. Take the over (10*). |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins v. Saints UNDER 37 | Top | 20-3 | Win | 102 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFL MNF 1H Total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Miami and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We'll play the first half total only in this one as there's obviously plenty of uncertainty when it comes to the Saints gameplan on both sides of the football with so many key contributors sidelined. I like the way it sets up as a low-scoring start. While this looks like a slam dunk for the Fins on paper given all of the Saints absences, they'll have to be careful not to overlook New Orleans, which still has many of its defensive anchors on the field. I'm anticipating a more conservative offensive gameplan here after QB Tua Tagovailoa turned the football over twice in last week's win over the Jets, including one interception that was returned for a touchdown. We've seen renewed balance from the Miami offense lately as it has ran the football at least 39 times in two of its last three games and finally appears to have a fully healthy backfield for this one. The Saints are going to be extra-cautious when they have the football with fourth-string QB Ian Book running the offense. We can obviously expect to see a heavy dose of RB Alvin Kamara in this one. Regardless, I'm not expecting much from the New Orleans offense. Note that the Saints are averaging a woeful 6.0 points in the first half at home this season. The Dolphins, meanwhile, average 9.5 points in the first half on the road. The 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 in the first half of their next game with the Saints coming off a win this season, resulting in an average total of just 14.5 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 55-33 in the first half with the Fins coming off a win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the first half under (10*). |
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12-26-21 | Jaguars v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Jaguars home loss to the Texans last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they travel to New York to face the Jets. The Jags offense did show some signs of life or at least some semblance of an identity in last week's loss - the first game of the post-Urban Meyer era. RB James Robinson should be the focal point of the Jags offense moving forward and he figures to go off against the Jets league-worst run defense. New York is favored for a reason here, however, and I would anticipate the Jets offense enjoying some success against a Jags defense that will be missing arguably its best player in DE Josh Allen. Despite gaining only 228 total yards of offense in last week's loss in Miami, the Jets still managed to manufacture 24 points. They'll be taking a considerable step down in class against the Jags here and I expect them to turn Zach Wilson loose (which as we know could lead to points for either team). Take the over (10*). |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans OVER 44 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Tennessee at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. After watching the Titans dismal offensive performance against the Steelers last Sunday this is a bit of a 'plug-your-nose and bet it' type of play on Thursday night but I love the way it sets up. The 49ers offense is set up to go off both on the ground and through the air as Jimmy G. in particular remains an undervalued commodity, even after a string of top flight performances. The question becomes whether the Titans offense can keep up, but I believe they can. Derrick Henry remains sidelined, as does Julio Jones. However, Tennessee got some good news with the return of WR A.J. Brown. He's in line to go off against a very beatable 49ers pass defense here. I'm still a believer in Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, even after last Sunday's ugly performance against the Steelers. The 49ers defense is thought of as a top-level unit but it has been getting regularly torched by opposing wide receivers. Last week's mistake-laden effort in Pittsburgh couldn't have sat well with the Titans. I expect them to come out aggressively as a result here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas UNDER 55 | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and North Texas at 3:30 pm et on Thursday. I love the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday. Miami-Ohio is coming off a wild 48-47 loss to Kent State (who we saw light it up but also fail to come up with any stops in Tuesday's lopsided loss against Wyoming). In fact, the 'over' has cashed in three of the Redhawks last four games. They threw all over the likes of Ohio, Buffalo and aforementioned Kent State over that stretch. I wouldn't anticipate them doing the same here. Note that North Texas allowed 20+ pass completions on only three occasions this season, against SMU, Missouri and Marshall. Over the Mean Green Eagles' last six games they held the opposition to a combined 97-for-184 (53%) passing. It's not as if teams simply elected to run all over them either, only UTSA (with standout RB Sincere McCormick) managed to gain more than 113 yards on the ground against them over that stretch. On the flip side, North Texas employs a run-first offense. Only twice this season did it complete more than 17 passes and it managed to score a combined 38 points in those two contests against SMU and Liberty where it was forced to play in catch-up mode. Miami-Ohio was respectable defending the run this season, holding opponents that average 4.4 yards per rush to 4.3 ypr. I don't envision the Redhawks getting taken advantage of through the air in this one, noting that they've been accustomed to facing pass-first offenses in the MAC, noting that they've seen 30+ pass attempts in eight straight games heading into this one. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 70-48 the last 118 times Miami-Ohio has come off a loss with those games totalling an average of just 47.3 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with North Texas coming off five or more consecutive wins, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 47.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. With all of the Bears projected absences on defense due to Covid protocols and other various injuries and ailments there's absolutely no excuse for the Vikings not to approach 30 points in this game. The Vikes are still missing WR Adam Thielen but the emergence of K.J. Osborn certainly lessens the blow. This one should be all about RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson anyway. Cook is in a smash spot against a very beatable Bears run defense that as I mentioned is missing a number of key cogs. Jefferson is always a strong candidate to find the end zone and he's likely to avoid Bears standout CB Jaylon Johnson here as he was moved to the Covid list on Sunday. The question becomes whether the Bears can do enough to help this one 'over' the total. I believe they can. Few teams have struggled as badly against opposing wide receivers as the Vikings this season and Bears rookie QB Justin Fields seems to be building a better rapport with his receiving corps with each passing week. WR Darnell Mooney brings the big play potential but it's actually Damiere Byrd and Jakeem Grant that I would keep an eye on in this one. Allen Robinson is likely going to be sidelined after hitting the Covid list but he's never been on the same page as Fields this season anyway, coming off another low-key performance last Sunday in Green Bay. The Vikings have been anything but stout against the run this season opening the door for a possible big game from Bears RB David Montgomery as well. Take the over (10*). |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's hard not to envision the Jaguars offense getting a much-needed boost following the firing of head coach Urban Meyer. This is a smash spot for the Jags offense against a Texans defense that has never been able to find its footing this season and has been absolutely drummed by opposing ground attacks. Jags RB James Robinson was inexplicably in Meyer's doghouse but should be unleashed under interim head coach Darrell Bevell's guidance. If Robinson can get going in this one that should really open things up for Lawrence, who faces the Texans very beatable defense for the second time this season. Let's give credit where credit is due; Texans QB Davis Mills has shown signs of improvement recently and given the way the Jags secondary has struggled to defend opposing wide receivers, there's reason to believe Mills can enjoy another fine day on the statsheet on Sunday. As long as the Texans have a healthy Brandin Cooks they have the ability to move the chains and put points on the board. Let's not forget that the last time these two teams met, way back in Week 1, the Texans scored a season-high 37 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts OVER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
NFL AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Indianapolis at 8:20 pm et on Saturday. Most are expecting a defensive slugfest between these two old AFC rivals on Saturday night but I think we're in for an entertaining, relatively high-scoring affair. As the total continues to drop we'll step in now with a play on the 'over'. All most remember when it comes to the Patriots is that run-dominated 14-10 in windy Buffalo two Mondays ago. However, the Pats enter this game having posted their six highest point totals of the entire season over the last eight games alone. Take away that wind-induced low-scoring performance in Buffalo and you'll see just how consistent New England has been offensively on the road, scoring 25, 25, 27, 24 and 25 points in their five other road contests. As for the Colts, three of their four highest scoring performances of the season have come in their last three games as they've put up 41, 31 and 31 points. They know they're going to need to put some points on the board in order to prevail in this game as their defense simply hasn't held up well against the run (allowing 4.5 yards per rush) and they figure to face an onslaught from the Pats ground attack here. Don't discount Mac Jones in this one though either. He has completed 22 or more passes in nine of 13 games this season. Finally, I'll point out that the Pats haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since opening the season with four straight 'unders'. Meanwhile, the Colts have yet to post back-to-back 'under' results this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State OVER 51.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Fresno State at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. There's a lot of uncertainty around Fresno State this week, stemming from QB Jake Haener seemingly transferring from the program but then reversing course and returning to the team in time for Bowl week. I'm not overly concerned. Haener is with the team and likely to at least see some action in this one. Even if he doesn't, the Bulldogs offense is capable of going off against a Miners defense that sagged down the stretch. UTEP comes in on a 1-4 slide, allowing 28, 44, 20, 28 and 42 points over that stretch. The good news for the Miners is they do have an offense capable of putting points on the board with a standout WR duo in Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett who have the ability to blow the top off of any secondary. Note that while the Miners are generally a run-first team, they're likely to be playing from behind for the majority of this game and in that scenario we saw them bomb away down the stretch, attempting 30+ passes in four of their final five regular season games. The 'over' went 4-1 in UTEP's five losses this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 52.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. All three primetime games went 'over' the total last week but I expect a different story to unfold as the division-rival Chiefs and Chargers kick off Week 15 with a good matchup on Thursday night. The Chargers defense has actually had the Chiefs number since the start of last season, allowing only 24, 23 and 21 points in three matchups, winning two of those. While Los Angeles did light up the Kansas City defense for 30 points in the last matchup between these two teams back in September, there's no question the Chiefs 'D' is playing much better now. While Kansas City will be without key pass rusher Chris Jones for this one, the Chargers will be without arguably their best o-lineman in rookie Rashawn Slater. That's not to mention the fact that WR Keenan Allen is coming out of Covid protocols after missing last week's game while RB Austin Ekeler is questionable to play due to an ankle injury. To put it simply, I don't expect Chargers QB Justin Herbert to enjoy the same level of success he did against Kansas City back in September. The Chargers defensive strength has been against the pass this season as they come in having held their last seven opponents to 138-of-235 (59%) passing - awful numbers for opposing QB's by today's NFL standards. Yes, you can beat the Chargers on the ground but the Chiefs by no means possess a dominant ground attack. With so much on the line in this one, I'm confident we'll see points come at a premium. Take the under (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team OVER 48 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have been strongly trending to the 'under' lately but that only serves to set us up with value on the 'over' on Sunday as they match up for the first time this season. Dallas didn't have to score a whole lot against an extremely limited Saints offense last week but still managed to put 27 points on the board. With a couple of extra days of rest between games (that game against New Orleans was on Thursday) the Cowboys banged-up weapons on offense, namely Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott have had extra time to get back closer to full strength. I expect them to be all systems go for this favorable matchup on Sunday. Washington hasn't been able to stop or even slow opposing passing games. They've given up 20+ pass completions in six of their last seven games. Here, they'll be without yet another pass rusher in Montez Sweat as he is on the Covid list and being un-vaccinated is unable to play on Sunday. Dak Prescott has the potential to absolutely go off in this one. Washington is coming off consecutive low-scoring affairs. Similar to Dallas' relatively low-scoring performance against the Saints last week, the Football Team hasn't had to score much to secure its last two victories against Seattle and Las Vegas. We should see a different story here, however. Washington WR Terry McLaurin should absolutely wreck Cowboys corner Trevon Diggs, who has been outstanding at intercepting the football but horrible at covering opposing wide receivers. Meanwhile, the Dallas run defense has shown some major cracks in recent weeks, allowing just shy of 5.0 yards per rush over its last three games. Everything should be on the table for QB Taylor Heinecke and the Washington offense in this one. Note that the Football Team scored 25 and 41 points in two meetings against Dallas last season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 45.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in Seattle's 17-15 loss in Washington on Monday night - we weren't even close with that one. Seattle has now seen the 'under' cash in five straight games and that's a trend I see continuing here. The Seahawks point totals going back to October 7th are 17, 20, 10, 31, 0, 13 and 15. The one outlier was a 31-point outburst against Jacksonville in a game that still stayed 'under' the total. I have, however, been impressed by the way the Seahawks have defended lately and they're well-positioned to slow an undermanned 49ers offense that will be without its best weapon, WR Deebo Samuel here. The Niners offense is in a classic contrarian fade spot after scoring 30+ points in three straight games. Note that the Seahawks have turned into a bit of a pass funnel defense lately and I think that will work out fine in this matchup. San Francisco wants to run the football - noting that it has 39 or more rush attempts in each of its last three games. Seattle has limited opponents to just 3.9 yards per rush - opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush on the season. Over their last three games, the Seahawks have given up just 3.3 ypr. While the Niners offense has been explosive points-wise, they've completed 17 or fewer passes in six of their last seven games. The Seahawks are always going to remain committed to the run as long as Pete Carroll is the head coach (which may not be for much longer). That doesn't mean they'll find success on the ground, however, noting that they've rushed for fewer than 100 yards in five consecutive games. Take the under (10*). |
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12-03-21 | Holy Cross v. Villanova UNDER 49.5 | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
FCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Holy Cross and Villanova at 7 pm et on Friday. This matchup pits two of the best defensive teams in FCS. Holy Cross ran roughshod over the rest of the Patriot League but barely survived its playoff test against Sacred Heart last week, rallying for a 13-10 victory thanks to a touchdown in the closing seconds. The Crusaders struggled to get anything going offensively in that game and they'll be hard-pressed to bounce back in that regard against a championship-caliber defense in Villanova. Note that the Wildcats earned a first-round bye so they'll be taking the field for the first time in a couple of weeks on Friday night - this is a team with true FCS Championship aspirations, entering as the five-seed. What Holy Cross can hang its hat on is its own stout defense. The Crusaders have an outstanding defensive line, camping out in opposing backfields all season to rank fifth in the country in sacks. Both teams would be wise to keep the football on the ground for much of the evening, noting that the two defenses have had a knack for forcing turnovers. Holy Cross ranks tied for second in the country in interceptions while Villanova sits just behind, tied for third. The Wildcats have allowed just 18 offensive touchdowns in 11 games so far this season. In terms of yards per play allowed, these two teams both sit inside the top-four in FCS. You get the picture. Many bettors simply looking for early action on Friday night might look to the 'over' with this total sitting in the 40's. I believe it's the wrong move, however, as this game has the potential to be a slugfest. Take the under (10*). |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Seahawks season is long lost and after scoring a combined 13 points in Russell Wilson's first two games back from injury it's no surprise that bettors are spooked from backing them, or the 'over' in this matchup on Monday night. Seattle's last four games haven't come close to sniffing an 'over' result but I expect a different story to unfold here. There's little reason for the Seahawks to hold anything back from an offensive gameplanning standpoint in this one. Yes, Pete Carroll is always going to employ a run-first gameplan but due to a limited backfield as a result of a cluster of injuries, we've seen the Seahawks shift away from that somewhat since Russ' return. Game script has had something to do with that as well as the Seahawks have been trailing for the majority of the time in their last two games. Nevertheless, we've seen Seattle run the ball just 16 and 19 times in its last two games while throwing it a combined 66 times. Here, the Seahawks should benefit from facing a depleted Washington defense that is without its top two pass rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Opponents have rightfully attacked Washington through the air with considerable success, completing 90-of-122 (74%) pass attempts over the last four games. On the flip side, the Seahawks defense has been mercilessly assaulted by opposing passing games, allowing an average of 40 pass attempts per game this season. Last week, the Colt McCoy-led Cardinals offense completed 35-of-44 passes for 318 yards through the air. Washington QB Taylor Heinecke is an underrated passer and isn't afraid to take chances, which should work to his benefit as his receivers led by Terry McLaurin own an advantage against the Seahawks depleted secondary (they lost CB Tre Brown to injury in last week's game). It sounds like TE Logan Thomas and WR Curtis Samuel could be back on Monday as well to further bolster a very capable Washington offense. Heinecke should have plenty of time to operate against a Seahawks defense that sits last in the league in sack rate this season. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced just 35 points here in Washington. That, along with the fact that both teams have strongly trended to the 'under' in recent weeks and months helps keep this total in a very reasonable range. Take the over (10*). |
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11-28-21 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 45.5 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are coming off a high-scoring game against the Saints last week - in fact, they've seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five contests. It generally takes two to push a game 'over' the total, however, and I'm not sure we'll see a shootout in this one. The Giants defense hasn't really been the problem this season. I expect to see them keep things simple as they try to contain the big plays and minimize the effectiveness of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts on Sunday. On the flip side, New York hands the offensive keys over to Freddie Kitchens after firing Jason Garrett on Tuesday. I don't envision a sudden turnaround for the G-Men offensively under Kitchens. If anything we'll likely see a renewed focus on the ground game with RB Saquon Barkley presumably back to full health. The Eagles are no pushovers against the run, however, allowing 119 rush yards or less in seven straight games entering Sunday's contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is on a stellar 43-19 run when the Eagles come off a game that totaled 60 or more points, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 42.2 points. The 'under' is also 12-3 in the Giants last 15 games with a total of between 42.5 and 49 points, producing an average total of 39.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-26-21 | UTEP v. UAB UNDER 50.5 | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and UAB at 2 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results last week. UTEP matched a season-high for points scored, hanging 38 on Rice in a 10-point victory. UAB fell in a wild one against UTSA, dropping a 34-31 decision. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Miners and Blazers wrap up the C-USA regular season. Both teams want to run the football on offense but it's notable that the two defenses have held up well against the run, with UTEP allowing 3.7 yards per rush and UAB even better, giving up just 3.0 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.2 ypr this season. Note that UTEP also checks in allowing just 6.8 yards per pass attempt. UAB has been slightly worse in that department, giving up 7.0 yards per pass attempt but that's against opponents that average 7.4 yppa. While UAB has given up north of 550 passing yards in its last two games combined, those two contests came on the road against quality offenses in Marshall and UTSA. Despite last week's 38-point outburst, UTEP is no offensive juggernaut having scored 30, 13, 26, 25 and 17 points in its five road games this season. UAB scored a season-high 52 points in its most recent home game but that came against a reeling Louisiana Tech squad. Both of these teams will be going Bowling this season and I anticipate a tightly-contested affair on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 63 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in this same matchup last season despite the fact that I think we're better-positioned for a true shootout on Thursday. Ole Miss has seen the 'under' cash in six consecutive games heading into this one. The fact is, the Rebels ultra-fast offense hasn't had to score a whole lot in recent weeks, simply due to the type of opponents it has gone up against. Here, I expect a different story to unfold. Mississippi State doesn't run the football often. The Bulldogs have just 60 rush attempts over their last three games combined. Over that same stretch they attempted a whopping 150 passes, with considerable success, gaining over 1,300 yards through the air. Ole Miss has held up well defensively over the last few games, allowing less than 20 points in each contest. But we got a first hand look at just how bad the Rebels defense can be in an earlier matchup against Arkansas - a game in which they got lit up for 51 points in a narrow one-point win (and non-cover). The Bulldogs offense hasn't had a great deal of success in this series in recent years, but this is its best shot at lighting up the scoreboard. Expect plenty of offense on Thanksgiving Night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Bills and the 'over' in the Jets blowout loss last week here at home. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the New York hosts Miami. The Jets will turn to veteran Joe Flacco at quarterback. I don't need to tell you how much that should limit the offense. Flacco is more or less in there to be a 'game manager' as this appears to be a decent chance for the Jets to earn a rare victory, at least on paper. While we've seen New York really open up the playbook with Mike White under center, I don't think that will be the case with Flacco at the helm. On the flip side, while we can project moderate success for the Dolphins offense against a reeling Jets defense, I don't expect an offensive explosion. Miami has a very pedestrian ground attack, which is the area where the Jets defense has struggled most. The Miami passing attack remains undermanned, leaning heavily on rookie WR Jaylen Waddle and TE Mike Gesicki in the absence of Devante Parker and Will Fuller. Note that you would have to go all the way back to October of 2017 to find the last time a matchup in this series topped 44 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings OVER 47 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has inexplicably cashed in each of the Packers last seven games and five of the Vikings last seven contests overall. That is providing us with a very reasonable total to work with on Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, when these two division rivals met here at U.S. Bank Stadium last season they combined to score a whopping 77 points. The return matchup in Green Bay totaled 50 points. The Packers last two games have reached only 20 and 17 points but those were in unique circumstances. Two games back Green Bay was without Aaron Rodgers in Kansas City. Last week, it didn't need to keep its foot on the gas offensively as the Seahawks offense was severely limited with Russell Wilson clearly not 100% healthy in his first game back from injury. Here, I think both teams will gameplan aggressively on offense knowing they're going to need to put up plenty of points to prevail. The Packers have held up well despite missing some key cogs on defense. Now they'll be without do-it-all RB Aaron Jones as well but I'm confidence in A.J. Dillon's ability to fill the void in the backfield. Vikes QB Kirk Cousins has been wildly inconsistent but I think he can find some success in this matchup. Note that in last year's two matchups, the Vikes offense held the ball for just over 18 and 27 minutes but still managed to score 34 and 28 points in those two games respectively. I'm banking on a shootout on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The last time these two teams met almost two years ago to the day we saw a closing total of 47.5 points in a game that snuck just below that number. I believe we're dealing with a higher number here largely due to the recent wild, high-scoring results we've seen in these weeknight MAC tilts. In fact, the 'over' has cashed in each of Bowling Green's last five games while the 'over' is a perfect 2-0 in Miami-Ohio's last two contests. I look for a reversal of that trend here. Bowling Green's offense came crashing back to Earth last week following a 56-point outburst against Buffalo the previous week. Last Wednesday we saw the Eagles score just 17 points in a blowout loss at Toledo. Note that the Eagles have been held to 21 or fewer pass completions in five straight games, topping 16 completions only twice over that stretch. They're averaging just 6.5 yards per pass attempt against opponents that allow an average of 7.7 yards per pass attempt this season. Their running game hasn't been any better but I do expect them to lean on their ground attack in an effort to effectively shorten this contest as a big underdog on Tuesday night. Miami-Ohio scored a season-high 45 points in last week's win over Buffalo. It had previously topped out at 34 points this season. There's no question the Redhawks strength is on the defensive side of the football, noting that they've allowed 18 points or less in four of six conference games so far this season. While they did put up 45 points last week, that was on the strength of four Buffalo turnovers. Bowling Green has struggled this season but actually checks in having turned the football over only four times over its last four games combined. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 18-3 the last 21 times Miami-Ohio has come off consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 47.3 points in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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11-14-21 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 54.5 | Top | 3-43 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 21 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. We ended up just missing with the 'over' in the Cowboys stunning blowout loss to the Broncos here last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this Sunday as Dallas hosts Atlanta. The Falcons are in a clear letdown spot after a wild upset win over the Saints in New Orleans last Sunday. While I don't expect Atlanta to notch a second straight underdog victory here, I do think it can contribute enough offense to help this one 'over' the total. The Cowboys have been vulnerable against tight ends this season and the Falcons obviously have a good one in rookie Kyle Pitts. We've seen Falcons veteran QB Matt Ryan settle in a little bit in recent weeks, save for an ugly defensive slugfest against the Panthers, and here I think we can have confidence that we'll see him bomb away, noting that he's thrown for 325 yards or more in three of the last four contests. On the flip side, the Cowboys offense is set to eat against a very beatable Falcons defense on Sunday. We did see Dak Prescott and the offense round into form late in last week's loss, even if that had more to do with game script playing from well behind than anything else. We know that this offense is far better than it showed in that game against Denver - I think the argument can be made that the Cowboys overlooked a Broncos squad that was ravaged with injuries and had just dealt away its best defensive player in Von Miller. The 'under' has now cashed in each of Dallas' last two games but that's not a sustainable trend in my opinion. Note that the 'over' is 13-2 the last 15 times the Cowboys have come off an upset home loss by two touchdowns or more. Over the last 2+ seasons we've seen Dallas post a 9-1 o/u record when coming off an upset loss of any kind, with that situation producing an average total of 59.7 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming v. Boise State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wyoming and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. Few pay much attention to the Wyoming Cowboys and perhaps rightfully so at this point as they've fizzled with four losses in their last five games. For those that are paying attention, though, they know that the Cowboys can play some defense. That unit has remained healthy this season and it's loaded with experience and talent. The results on the field have bared that out as they've allowed 27 points or less in all but one of their games (consider that wild 50-43 victory over Northern Illinois back in Week 2 an aberration). They're allowing only 4.2 yards per rush and a staggering 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Boise State certainly offers a stiff challenge after putting up 40 points on the road against Fresno State last time out but it's not as if the Broncos have been consistently lighting up the scoreboard this season. Note that Boise State has been held to 28 points or less in five of its last seven games. The Broncos enter this contest playing some of their best defensive football of the season, having held three of their last four opponents under 20 points. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in all four of those games. Wyoming hasn't taken major strides forward offensively this season and we know the Broncos can contain that unit, noting that they've allowed a grand total of just 54 points in the last four meetings in this series. Both teams like to run the football, which obviously helps keep the clock moving and supports our cause with the 'under'. Note that Wyoming checks in having topped out at 15 pass completions in a game this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 54-35 in Wyoming's last 89 games a road underdog and 61-40 in Boise State's last 101 contests as a home favorite. Take the under (10*). |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers OVER 39 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NFL First Half Total of the Week. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We've taken advantage of some lofty first half totals on a number of occasions on Monday Night Football this season, including last week as we cashed the 'under' in the first half of the Giants-Chiefs matchup. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as I see this as a fine spot for both offenses to get off to strong starts at Heinz Field. Chicago showed some signs of life offensively against San Francisco last week - even if it was in a losing effort. QB Justin Fields looked as comfortable throwing the football as he has all season. On Chicago's first drive of the game Fields was 4-for-4 for 46 yards passing - a drive that ultimately ended with a made field goal. In fact, all three of Chicago's first half drives resulted in points on the board - 13 in all. Pittsburgh's pass rush offers a difficult challenge for Fields and he'll undoubtedly take some sacks and hits but I do think his mobility helps and the Bears receivers should have an advantage against a Steelers secondary that has struggled against the pass. Also note that the Pittsburgh defense has allowed 4.2 yards per rush, opening things up for underrated Bears rookie RB Khalil Herbert. Steelers dinosaur QB Ben Roethlisberger catches a break here as Khalil Mack remains sidelined for the Bears, taking away their best pass-rushing piece. They're also likely to be without another one of their top defenders in S Eddie Jackson. The Bears defense hasn't been stout against the run at the best of times and Steelers rookie RB Najee Harris is evolving into a bigger factor each week. He should go off in this matchup. Like the Steelers, the Bears secondary has generally been soft against opposing wide receivers. My concern with playing the full game 'over' in this one is the potential game script should the Steelers hold a lead in the second half. There's a good chance they elect to salt the game away with their ground attack in that scenario. In general, I don't have a great deal of confidence in the Chicago coaching staff drawing up the right plays in high-pressure situations late. Take the first half over (10*). |
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11-07-21 | Vikings v. Ravens OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 39 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Ravens most recent game two weeks ago at home against the Bengals. That turned out to be a 'rocking chair' variety winner as the Bengals exploded on an overrated Ravens defense. Here, I look for the Ravens offense to bounce back in a big way as they come off their bye week and face an undermanned Vikings defense that is without Danielle Hunter and Patrick Peterson among others. While I'm not sure the majority of casual bettors have taken notice, the Ravens offense is no longer the run-first unit we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. With no true bell-cow in the backfield, they've began to shift to a more pass-friendly offense and that should continue to pay dividends for 'over' backers moving forward. This is a favorable spot for Ravens WR Hollywood Brown to go off. Mark Andrews has been the focal point of the Baltimore passing game recently but he's at risk of getting locked up by the Vikes solid linebacking corps in this one. Look for the Ravens receiving corps to shine here. On the flip side, the Vikes offense didn't look good against the Cowboys last Sunday night. Perhaps Minnesota got caught looking past a Dak-less Cowboys squad. I simply chalk it up to inconsistency, something we've come to expect from Vikes QB Kirk Cousins. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot for Cousins and the loaded Minnesota offense. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen should feast against a Ravens defense that has given up the fourth-most pass completions of 20 yards or more this season. Vikes RB Dalvin Cook is in a smash spot as well as the Ravens defensive front has been repeatedly shredded this season, giving up nine touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-06-21 | Houston v. South Florida OVER 52 | Top | 54-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. South Florida is coming off a lower-scoring result than expected against East Carolina in a primetime weeknight game last week. In fact, the Bulls are coming off back-to-back 'under' results. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair here, however, as they return home to host a rolling Houston squad on Saturday night. First, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with South Florida coming off a road loss against a conference opponent over the last 2+ seasons with that situation resulting in an average total of 72.0 points. Also note that the last seven times USF has come off an ATS loss it has seen its next contest average a whopping 67.0 points. If the Bulls are going to keep this game even remotely competitive, they're going to need to step up their game offensively. The good news is they are expected to have dual-threat QB Timothy McClain back on the field. Houston has padded its defensive stats against the likes of Rice and FCS squad Grambling. There was also a weeknight affair that completely got away from Tulsa, which has been highly-inconsistent offensively. Here, I think we see the Cougars once again go off offensively, having scored 44, 45 and 40 points in their three previous road games this season. FCS squad Florida A&M and Temple (one of the worst FBS teams in the country in my opinion) are the only two opponents that USF has held to under 29 points this season. Note that Houston has scored at least 56 points in each of the last two meetings in this series. The last two matchups have totaled at least 77 points. This total is too low with last week's poor showing from the Bulls in front of a national audience factoring heavily into the number. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College OVER 46.5 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the the 'over' between Virginia Tech and Boston College at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While both of these teams have been involved in some low-scoring games recently, I believe the betting markets have over-adjusted when it comes to this total. Keep in mind, Virginia Tech is just one game removed from a wild game against Syracuse that totaled 77 points. Speaking of Syracuse, Boston College tangled with the Orange last week, losing an ugly 21-6 decision at the Carrier Dome. That extremely low final score was somewhat misleading, however. In that game, Boston College marched down the field to just outside the Orange red zone on its first drive of the game but was stopped on fourth down. The very next drive Syracuse took the ball all the way to the Boston College three-yard line before coughing up a fumble. Two of the next three drives after that would see the Orange drive into BC territory before being stopped on fourth down and then the Eagles stalling at the Syracuse 14-yard line before settling for a field goal. You get the picture. Boston College has actually only had the benefit of playing two home games to date this season. It recorded a thrilling 41-34 overtime win over Missouri in one of them before being held in check by a good N.C. State team in a 33-7 loss in mid-October. Virginia Tech is coming off a game against Georgia Tech that reached 43 total points despite a whopping 83 rush attempts in the game. The Hokies have been alternating high and low-scoring games over the last month. They haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since opening the season with three in a row and even during that stretch, two of those three games went 'over' the number we're dealing with tonight. You would have to go back four meetings to 2017 to find the last time these two teams played a game that totaled less than 52 points. We've seen closing totals of 57, 56.5 and 61.5 in the last three meetings and the last time the Hokies and Eagles matched up in Chestnut Hill they combined to score 63 points two years ago. Again, while both of these offenses have been prone to scoring droughts, I believe this total has been set too low. With both teams desperate for a victory to keep Bowl hopes alive, I expect them to come out with an attacking mentality on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -106 | 78 h 56 m | Show |
NFL AFC Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Indianapolis at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Colts overtime loss to the Titans on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they stay home to host the upstart Jets on a short week on Thursday night. Mike White-mania has taken hold in New York after the QB led the Jets to a stunning 34-31 win over the Bengals on Sunday. Let's not get too carried away though. The Jets caught the Bengals in an obvious letdown spot off a monster blowout win over the rival Ravens the previous week. Cincinnati's defense might have got caught reading a little too much of their own press leading into that one and certainly appeared to overlook White's ability to move the Jets offense and put points on the board. Don't expect the Colts to fall into the same trap here. Indianapolis has to feel that the AFC South is still up for grabs, especially with the new that Titans RB Derrick Henry will miss 6-10 weeks with a foot injury. With that being said, Frank Reich probably doesn't want his QB Carson Wentz throwing the football 50+ times again like he did on Sunday against the Titans. We saw that the Jets defense can be opportunistic against the Bengals. Credit New York for limiting Cincinnati to just north of 300 total yards in that game. The majority of the Bengals offense in that game came thanks to turnovers from the Jets offense. Knowing that, I'm confident predicting a more conservative gameplan from Robert Saleh's Jets offense here. The Colts come in having scored 30+ points in three straight games but that's not a sustainable trend in my opinion. Note that the 'under' is a long-term winner at 60-40 with the Colts playing at home off a loss, resulting in an average total of just 42.6 points. The 'under' is also 48-30 with the Jets playing on the road after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here, good for an average total of just 37.6 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo UNDER 53.5 | Top | 52-49 | Loss | -113 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Michigan and Toledo at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Eastern Michigan enters this game off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results, scoring a whopping 86 points along the way. The Eagles should find the going much tougher on Tuesday, however, as they face one of the MAC's best defensive teams in Toledo. The Rockets have given up more than 26 points in a game only once this season and that came against nationally-ranked Notre Dame, on the road no less, back in Week 2. Offensively, the Rockets aren't the juggernaut we've become accustomed to seeing in Toledo. Their overall numbers are skewed by a couple of explosions against FCS squad Norfolk State way back in Week 1 and lowly UMass in the first week of October. The Rockets have completed 20 or more passes only twice this season - they've run the football 30+ times in six of eight games to date. They've also allowed more than 21 pass completions only once, that coming in the aforementioned game against Notre Dame. Last year's matchup between these two teams was high-scoring with Toledo winning by a 45-28 score. Keep in mind, that was a wild contest that included four turnovers by way of fumbles (and an interception as well). Of course we can't account for turnovers creating short fields here, but with a lot on the line between these two MAC squads, I'm expecting a lower-scoring game than most. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs UNDER 52 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NFL MNF First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between New York and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is an obvious 'get right' spot for the Chiefs against a lowly Giants squad that looks ripe for the picking coming off a 25-3 win over the Panthers last week. Most are expecting the Chiefs offense to lay waste to a depleted Giants defense here but I believe another slow start from Patrick Mahomes and company could be in order. Keep in mind, the Chiefs are averaging only 8.7 points in the first half here at home this season. On the flip side, they're giving up a whopping 20.0 points on average in the first half at home - a number I certainly expect them to improve on against a Giants squad that will simply be looking to hold onto the football and effectively shorten this game given their lack of offensive weaponry due to injuries and otherwise. Note that the G-Men are averaging just shy of 7.0 points in the first half this season, topping out at 10 points through their first seven games. They reached that 10-point mark in the first half twice previously, in Dallas and Washington - more favorable matchups than the one they'll face here in my opinion. While the potential is certainly there for the Chiefs to come out and boatrace the Giants and take care of this first half total all on their own, given their inconsistency on offense I don't see it happening. Here, I'll note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 26-4 in the first half over the last 10 seasons when a team comes off an upset road loss by two touchdowns or more in the first half of the season, as is the case with the Chiefs here, resulting in an average total of just 17.8 points. That situation has gone a perfect 13-0 over the last five seasons. Take the first half under (10*). |
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10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Entering the season I had the Jaguars and Seahawks pegged as having two of the league's worst defenses. While both teams have trended to the 'under' through the first seven weeks of the season, that's had more to do with the inept nature of their offenses (and an injury to Russell Wilson for Seattle) than anything else. With that being said, I do see this as a potential breakout spot for both offenses. The Jags are coming off their bye week, giving them an extra week to perhaps add a couple of extra wrinkles to an offense that did show some signs of life prior to the bye. They certainly haven't been afraid to sling the ball all over the field, with rookie QB Trevor Lawrence attempting more than 30 passes in five of six games to date. The Seahawks offense has labored with journeyman QB Geno Smith at the helm but the big play potential is certainly still there with WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the field (we saw that as Metcalf had a long touchdown catch on Monday night against New Orleans). Note that when we last saw the Jags they were giving up a whopping 354 passing yards against Tua Tagovailoa and a struggling Miami offense in London. While the Jags have posted a 2-4 o/u record this season, they've actually gone 'over' the number we're dealing with on Sunday in four of six games to date. Off Monday's staggeringly low-scoring game in Seattle, I believe Sunday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts OVER 51 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 30 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first matchup between these two teams fizzled as a banged-up Carson Wentz wasn't able to get anything going offensively for the Colts in a 25-16 loss in Tennessee, snapping a three-game 'over' streak in this series. Here, I expect things to go back to 'normal' in this series with a shootout in Indianapolis. The Colts offense is red hot right now and has been for a number of weeks. With that in mind, I expect offensive-minded head coach Frank Reich to orchestrate an aggressive offensive gameplan here, knowing that his team is going to need to put up plenty of points to outlast a surging Titans squad. Tennessee has come to life offensively over the last few weeks, scoring 98 points in three games - all victories. I still have my concerns when it comes to the Titans defense, however. They held the mighty Chiefs to only three points in a very strange game last Sunday but that had more to do with game script than anything else as the Titans got off to a blazing start and never looked back. Neither team has been particularly stout against the run this season with the Titans checking in having allowed north of 100 rush yards in six straight games (despite winning five of those) and the Colts having given up over 100 rushing yards in four straight and six of seven contests this season. Indy won its last two games by double-digit margins yet still gave up well over 300 yards rushing in those two contests. I point that out as both teams boast all-world running backs and it really opens everything up for the two offenses. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 10-2 the last 12 times the Titans have come off three wins in their last four games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 56.5 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-30-21 | Florida State v. Clemson OVER 47 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida State and Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring game between two teams that have largely been disappointments this season. Florida State has at least turned things around lately, reeling off three straight wins while scoring 33, 35 and 59 points. With that in mind, I think Clemson knows it will have to step up its offensive game and come out with an aggressive mindset on Saturday. The Tigers have certainly been bogged down, held to fewer than 20 points in each of their last three games and 21 points or less in all six of their games against FBS opponents this season. This is still a talented team and one that still has plenty to play for, especially when you consider each of its last five games are of the 'winnable' variety. This is an excellent get-right spot for the Clemson offense against what I consider a bad Florida State defense. Note that the Seminoles have allowed 30+ points in four of seven games this season. Two of their other three games came against the likes of FCS squad Jacksonville State and lowly UMass. Here, we'll play the 'over' noting that it has cashed at an impressive 32-9 clip over the last five seasons when set between 42.5 and 49 points with the road team having won two of its last three games ATS but sporting a losing record on the season, as is the case with Florida State. The 'over' has gone a stunning 19-2 in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 46 | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 49 h 6 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. Lamar Jackson has made a habit of laying waste to the Bengals defense and as he checks into this game playing some of the best football of his career, we can anticipate more of the same on Sunday. The question when it comes to the total in this game is whether Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense can be along for the ride and help this one 'over' the very reasonable number. I believe he and they can and will. The Chargers quite simply didn't show up for last week's much-hyped showdown with the Ravens. We won with Baltimore in that game as the Ravens jumped ahead early and salted the game away from there. Here, I believe we'll see the Bengals find a way to stick around in this game, just as they have in virtually every game this season. The Ravens defense hasn't been particularly dominant against the run or the pass - due to injuries or otherwise. Last week's solid boxscore numbers for the defense had everything to do with the Chargers throwing their offensive gameplan out the window after the deficit got out of hand. While this game isn't likely to be a true shootout, it doesn't have to be for us to cash this ticket given the range the total currently sits in. Interestingly, the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Ravens have come off an 'under' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 53.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-16-21 | BYU v. Baylor UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Baylor at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Baylor has had a couple of offensive explosions this season, including a 45-point outburst against West Virginia last Saturday (we won with the Bears in that game). However, while known for their offense, I believe the Bears strength lies on the defensive side of the football this season. Don't count on another boxscore-stuffing game from the Baylor offense here as it faces a good BYU defense coming off a tough 26-17 loss against Boise State last week. Credit the Cougars defense for holding up well in that game despite being dealt a tough hand with the offense turning the football over four times in the loss. With that in mind, we can anticipate a more conservative offensive approach from BYU here, especially considering the ball-hawking nature of the Bears defense (they've forced at least one turnover in all six games this season). Note that the Cougars have yet to top 22 pass completions in a game this season. They posted a season-high 37 pass attempts in last week's game against Boise, but that had everything to do with game script. I'm confident we'll see them rely heavily on the run as they try to effectively shorten this game as a substantial underdog in Waco. Baylor boasts a shutdown pass defense of sorts, allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt and no more than 24 pass completions in any of its six games this season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-16-21 | Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 51 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Miami-Ohio at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. Akron managed to score 35 points in last week's upset win over Bowling Green, on the road no less, but don't count on a similar story unfolding this week as the Zips head to Yager Stadium to take on the Redhawks of Miami-Ohio. It's worth noting that the Zips scored those 35 points thanks in large part to an awful Bowling Green squad turning over the football on five occasions. Last week actually marked the second time Akron managed to score 35 points this season but the other occurrence came against an FCS opponent, Bryant, back in mid-September. Outside of those two performances, the Zips have managed to score more than 17 points just once this season, that coming against an awful Temple defense in a blowout loss. Defensively, the Zips haven't been as bad as we've seen in recent years, particularly against the run. The longest rush they allowed in blowout losses against powerhouse opponents Auburn and Ohio State (both games were played on the road) went for 'just' 37 yards. It's not as if teams have been bombing away on them either. Only Ohio State managed to pass for more than 300 yards against the Zips and no opponent has topped 22 pass completions (I realize game script has had a lot to do with that as most of Akron's opponents have been nursing big leads). My point is, Akron does boast a better, more experienced defense than we've been accustomed to seeing in recent years and there's reason to believe it can at least keep a struggling Redhawks offense in check on Saturday. Miami-Ohio has topped out at 28 points in a game this season as it continues to have a tough time finding any sort of continuity at the quarterback position, or explosiveness out of the backfield. Here, I don't think the Redhawks will pay too much attention to earning 'style points' - they simply want to avoid falling to 1-2 in MAC play before playing their next two games on the road. As usual, Miami-Ohio has a terrific defense. You can't put too much stock in the Redhawks defensive numbers so far this season as they opened with a tough three-game slate on the road against Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army. Since opening MAC play they've held their two opponents to just 103 rushing yards on 60 attempts and 50-of-80 passing, allowing a grand total of only 30 points. Note that the 'under' checks in 17-3 the last 20 times the Redhawks have come off an upset loss as a favorite, leading to an average total of just 40.6 points scored in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-4 the last 20 times Akron has allowed 475 total yards per game over its last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 52 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. It's going to take a monumental defensive effort to slow the Bucs offense right now (yes, I realize they're just one game removed from a heavy rain-induced slugfest in New England) as they feature a number of elite players performing at a career-best levels. Tom Brady is averaging north of 350 passing yards per game and has already racked up 15 touchdown passes. Mike Evans and Antonio Brown are playing out of their minds right now while we're bound to see Chris Godwin explode any week now, noting that he drew a whopping 11 targets against the Dolphins last Sunday. The Eagles haven't been tough against the pass in recent years and that certainly hasn't changed here in 2021, particularly against elite opposing quarterbacks (ugly performances against Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes come to mind). The only difference with the Eagles defense this year is that they're struggling to stop the run as well, allowing north of 4.5 yards per rush. I like the fact that the Bucs have finally settled on Lenny Fournette in a lead-back role. The Bucs aren't without their issues defensively, largely due to injuries in their secondary. Antoine Winfield Jr. is the latest key cog to go down with an injury. While it's possible he plays, that's no certainty as he deals with a concussion on a short week. With the Eagles low-scoring 21-18 win over the defensive-minded Panthers fresh in everyone's minds, we're able to take advantage of a reasonable total here. Keep in mind, Philadelphia has also been involved in games totaling 62 points against Dallas (we won with the 'over' in that one) and 72 points against Kansas City. Game script has resulted in a few other low-scoring affairs, but in this spot, I fully expect to see the Eagles playing from behind for much of the night - just as they were in those high-scoring affairs against the Cowboys and Chiefs. While I'm not all that high on Jalen Hurts as the long-term solution for the Eagles at quarterback, there's no denying he's a baller, certainly capable of taking advantage of a banged-up, underperforming Bucs defense. Even the punchless Dolphins offense, led by Jacoby Brissett, was able to put up 17 points just past the midway point of the third quarter last week, on the road no less. Miami's offense fizzled from there while the Bucs kept pouring it on, as they're known to do, scoring three unanswered fourth quarter touchdowns. As much as I like playing primetime 'unders', I don't believe this matchup fits the bill. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-21 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 55 | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 43 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Navy and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. While some will look at this matchup and see a high posted total given Navy's reputation for running the football and eating clock in the process, I believe the number will prove too low. I simply feel this game has big-play potential from start to finish and projects as precisely the shootout the oddsmakers are expecting. Of course, last year's matchup between the Midshipmen and Tigers fizzed, ending with just 17 total points despite the total being set in the mid-60's. I expect a different story to unfold here. Navy has had a miserable time trying to stop opposing offenses, whether it's on the ground or through the air. The Middies check into this one allowing 8.3 yards per pass and 5.7 yards per rush. Their depth on defense has been seriously tested as they lost two of their five best defenders earlier in the season, Tama Tuitele (transfer portal) and Mitchell West (season-ending knee injury). While they haven't been truly boat-raced since their season-opening 49-7 rout at the hands of Marshall, they have allowed at least 28 points in each of their last three games. Two weeks ago against a comparable offense to the one they'll face on Thursday, they gave up three touchdown drives in the game's first 29 minutes against Central Florida. Memphis poses a stiff challenge with an offense that has been highly-consistent and explosive at times this season. QB Seth Henigan isn't afraid to bomb away and he should find plenty of success throwing on an average Navy secondary. Henigan has attempted 97 passes in the Tigers last two games, throwing for nearly 800 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. He also has some mobility and should give the Middies plenty of headaches on Thursday night. The fact that Asa Martin, a key transfer at running back, has only had 14 carries for the Tigers this season is telling. The Memphis backfield is brimming with talent and with a steady rotation should be able to stay fresh and excel against an undersized Navy defensive front. On the flip side, few teams have stuck with the run against Memphis this season but we know the Midshipmen will with their triple-option attack. Navy hogged the time of possession last year, churning out well over 200 rush yards on north of 50 attempts against the Tigers last season. Here, I look for Navy to hit a few more home runs and perhaps not put together as many of those long, clock-churning drives. We saw some leaks in the Memphis run defense last week as it was torched for 235 yards on 44 attempts - good for well over 5.0 yards per rush - and three touchdowns against Tulsa. Playing on a short week here, I don't expect there to be any quick fixes. Take the over (10*). |
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While both of these offenses are ultra-talented and capable of putting points on the board in a hurry, they'll both be facing their toughest defensive opponent to date on Tuesday night. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced just 45 points as the Ragin' Cajuns pulled off an outright upset away from home. In what should be a similarly tightly-contested affair, I expect points to come at a premium. Both squads are loaded with talent and experience on the defensive side of the football. In fact, the majority of the defenders that starred in last year's matchup that featured just 18 completed passes between the two teams are back in the fold here in 2021. It's also notable that both teams have somehow avoided the injury bug (for the most part) through the first month and a half of the season. Louisiana recently welcomed back star LB Ferrod Gardner and he's chipped in 11 tackles and generally wreaked havoc in two games. Appalachian State is strong from the back-end in (by that I mean their secondary is their strength) and that's what we want to see when backing a college football 'under'. Ragin' Cajuns QB Levi Lewis is an experienced leader of the offense but he's often relegated to 'game manager' role in tough matchups such as this one. Note that he's completed more than 19 passes just twice in five games this season, with one of those efforts coming as the Cajuns played in catch-up mode in a season-opening blowout loss on the road against Texas. Save for a 49-point explosion against a down-trodden Ohio squad, the Ragin' Cajuns have generally been held in check on offense, topping out at 28 points in their other four games. Appalachian State busted out for 45 points last time out but that performance came against a Georgia State squad that earlier in the season allowed 102 points in consecutive games against Army and North Carolina. In their toughest previous defensive test this season, the Mountaineers scored just 23 points in a two-point loss at Miami. Of course, it's not as if the Canes are a defensive powerhouse this season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-10-21 | 49ers v. Cardinals OVER 48 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting another shootout as the Cardinals return home off a huge win over the Rams to host another division foe, the 49ers, on Sunday afternoon in Glendale. This total has actually dropped since opening, a curious move considering the absence of Jimmy G. actually leads me to upgrade the Niners offense with rookie Trey Lance at the helm. Lance has had enough reps with the ones both in the preseason and in limited work during the regular season to leave me confident with him running the offense against a very beatable Cardinals defense on Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, only six teams have given up more rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks than Arizona this season. In general, the Cards haven't been able to stop opposing running games, giving up well north of five yards per rush. Of course, we know that the Cards can sling it with QB Kyler Murray turning in an MVP caliber season so far. There's little reason to expect Arizona to slow down offensively in this one with the 49ers once again proving to be an overrated defensive squad due to injuries and otherwise. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-1 the last 10 times the 49ers have played on the road after getting upset as a home favorite against a division opponent, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 52.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-09-21 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse UNDER 59 | Top | 40-37 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Syracuse at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in Wake Forest's wild 37-34 win over Louisville but it's certainly worth noting that were it not for an unthinkable defensive breakdown from the Demon Deacons that allowed a 70+ yard touchdown completion in the final minutes, we likely would have cashed that ticket. It was not a good game as a whole for the Wake defense but I do see this as a fine bounce-back spot against an inconsistent Syracuse offense on Saturday. On the flip side of that, the Demon Deacons have now scored 35 points or more in five straight games. As good as their offense is, I don't believe that trend is sustainable. While the Orange are coming off a wild, high-scoring shootout of their own at Florida State last week, I don't believe that's their preferred type of game. Note that their two previous home games against FBS opposition totaled just 24 and 45 points against Rutgers and Liberty, respectively. I still have my doubts as to whether the Syracuse offense can match last week's production against a tougher opponent here, even with the benefit of playing at home. When these two teams met last Halloween we saw an almost identical posted total. Wake ended up winning that game in blowout fashion, 38-14, easily staying 'under' the total we're dealing with here. Syracuse will be looking to do a much better job of keeping its offense on the field and controlling the time of possession here after Wake dominated in that department in last year's meeting to the tune of a 36:14 to 23:46 edge. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I get it. Both of these teams scored 30+ points last week and now clash in a division game on Monday Night Football, leading many to back the 'under' as the so-called 'sharp' play. I believe this one is being totaled as a potential shootout for good reason, however, and will stick with what's been working and play the 'over' on MNF. The Raiders are playing with house money at this point. Most expected they would be 1-2 or possibly 2-1 at best entering Week 4 but here they are sitting atop the AFC West with a flawless 3-0 record. I don't expect them to suddenly get tentative here. While their defense has held up better than most anticipated, I'm not all that high on that unit. Their offense on the other hand has impressed me and I believe they can find continued success, even in this tough road matchup on Monday. Note that opponents have gashed the Chargers defense in two particular areas this season, running the football and on tight end targets. Los Angeles checks in allowing well north of five yards per rush and I believe that sets up the Raiders underrated ground attack well in this one. It's been a bit of a 'plug-and-play' situation in the backfield for Las Vegas this season, with Peyton Barber being the most recent 'next man up'. Regardless who gets the lion's share of the carries on Monday night, I think the Raiders can gash the Chargers run defense. Meanwhile, Las Vegas obviously has one of the best in the business at tight end in Darren Waller. He's keeping opposing defensive coordinators up at night trying to come up with schemes to defend him. I mentioned I'm not all that high on the Raiders defense. I believe this is a spot where they could very well get flamed by an ascending Chargers offense. Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert is absolutely locked in right now, showing incredible chemistry with WR Mike Williams. Only six other teams have given up more catches to wide receivers than the Raiders and I expect to see the Chargers wideouts make the most of their opportunities in this one. Of course, the Las Vegas run defense hasn't been all that imposing in the early going, opening the door for a big night from Chargers do-it-all RB Austin Ekeler as well. It's a pick-your-poison type of matchup for the Raiders defense that appeared to wear down over the course of the game against an otherwise punchless Dolphins offense last Sunday. This game represents a big step up in class for the Raiders 'D' after going against Pittsburgh and Miami in consecutive weeks. A Monday night 'under' result is certainly coming but I don't think this is the spot. Take the over (10*). |
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10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers UNDER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Green Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Sure, I'd like to (and expected to) be working with a higher posted total in this one, but I still believe there's considerable value in backing the 'under' with the Packers coming off consecutive 'over' results. The Steelers offense is arguably the most predictable in the entire league right now and there's really nowhere for them to turn for answers at this point. Big Ben's time as a useful starting quarterback in the NFL is over, and I don't believe that's a knee-jerk reaction at all. Injuries and general wear-and-tear have taken their toll over the years and his decision-making has certainly left a lot to be desired in recent years. Here, with WR Chase Claypool ruled out and JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson dealing with nagging injuries, we can expect RB Najee Harris to be the focal point of the offense as the Steelers try to effectively shorten this contest and play keep-away from Aaron Rodgers and the explosive Packers offense. On a positive note for Pittsburgh, it is expected to have T.J. Watt back from injury. Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in consecutive wins over the Lions and 49ers. As good as the Packers offense is, an extended run of 30+ point performances certainly isn't sustainable. Note that the 'under' is 28-12 with the Steelers playing on the road off a home loss with those games totaling an average of 38.8 points. Better still, the 'under' is 21-8 when Pittsburgh plays on the road off an outright loss as a home favorite with that spot producing an average of 38.4 total points. Also note that the Steelers have given up just 15.4 points per game the last 23 times they've come off a double-digit loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, with that situation resulting in an average total of 39.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 46 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 17 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Maryland at 8 pm et on Friday. The 'under' is now a perfect 4-0 in games involving Iowa this season after last Saturday's closer than expected 24-14 win over Colorado State. The fact that the Hawkeyes trailed that game 14-7 at halftime may be concerning at first glance. However, a closer look shows that Iowa actually shut Colorado State out in the first, third and fourth quarters in that game. A 22-yard punt from the Hawkeyes deep in their own territory set up the Rams first touchdown drive - a drive they needed nine plays to turn into a touchdown despite starting from the Iowa 35-yard line. The Hawkeyes next offensive drive ended with an interception that the Rams returned all the way to the Iowa 23-yard line. Colorado State made good with a touchdown on that drive as well but that was it in terms of Rams scoring offense for the remainder of the game. You could argue that this will be Iowa's toughest test to date, although it did already go on the road and defeat rival Iowa State (which was ranked ninth in the country at the time) by a 27-17 score back on September 11th (we won with the 'under' in that game). That game reached 44 total points but did include a defensive fumble return for a touchdown. We've backed Maryland in each of the last two weeks, managing to split those plays thanks to last Saturday's rout of Kent State. The Terps offensive stats are somewhat skewed from playing FCS squad Howard (won 62-0) and Kent State and its 'FlashFast' offense that essentially served to give Maryland a number of extra possessions. While I do think the Terps can move the football against this tough Iowa defense, I'm not convinced they can end many drives with 7's on the board. Remember, back in Week 1 Maryland faced a tough home game against West Virginia and while it did put up 30 points, two touchdowns went for 60+ yards thanks to Mountaineers defensive breakdowns - something we're unlikely to see from the fundamentally-sound Hawkeyes defense here. On the flip side, the Terps can play some defense, noting that they've allowed just four touchdowns in their last 15 quarters of action, with one of those coming on a broken play offensive fumble return for a touchdown on the road against Illinois two weeks ago. Iowa has topped out at 34 points this season, and that performance came in a game in which they returned two interceptions for touchdowns against Indiana. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 101 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I fully expected this total to rise over the course of the week but that hasn't been the case. In fact, we've seen the opposite play out. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that both teams are coming off low-scoring results in Week 2. Regardless the reason, we'll take advantage and back the 'over' on Monday night. This is a 'revenge game' of sorts for Eagles dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts. He led Philadelphia on touchdowns on each of the first two drives in his lone start against Dallas last December, and continued to march the offense up and down the field for the remainder of the game but ultimately couldn't find the end zone again in an eventual 37-17 loss. Hurts threw for 342 yards in that game and also led the team in rushing but fumbled twice and tossed an interception that proved to be the team's downfall. That loss dashed the Eagles slim playoff hopes and you can be sure Hurts hasn't forgot about it. I do like the fact that he's catching the Cowboys early in the season here (Eagles head coach at the time Doug Pederson noted that Hurts was banged-up heading into that late-December meeting with the Cowboys), not to mention he'll be facing a depleted Dallas defense that is missing three of its top four edge rushers - a critical defensive position given Hurts mobility. Dallas isn't just dealing with defensive injuries, it has also taken a hit at the wide receiver position with Michael Gallup sidelined and Amari Cooper dealing with cracked ribs. All indications are that Cooper will play and I'm willing to bet on offensive coordinator Kellen Moore's ability to come up with a gameplan to take advantage of an Eagles defense that has been vulnerable against the pass in recent years and will also be missing key cogs both up front and at the back-end (notably DE Brandon Graham and S Rodney McLeod) in this one. The emergence of RB Tony Pollard adds another wrinkle to an already dynamic Cowboys offense that might even have a little more juice than usual with QB Dak Prescott returning to the field where he suffered a devastating season-ending injury in Week 5 last year. Note that the 'over' has gone 10-2 with the Cowboys playing at home against NFC opponents over the last three seasons with those games averaging a total of 60.0 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Bills OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-43 | Win | 100 | 47 h 48 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. Despite the fact that this game has the highest shootout potential of any of the Bills first three games this season (they previously faced two plodding offenses in the Steelers and Dolphins) this is the lowest total we've seen. I believe it will prove too low on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park. The Washington Football Team entered the season with plenty of optimism and dare I say hype, largely due to their potentially fierce defense. Well, that defense has been anything but fierce through two weeks, carved up to the tune of 53 pass completions for well over 550 yards. Now they head to Buffalo to take on a Josh Allen-led Bills offense that has yet to play its best game of the season but will continue to employ an aggressive attack under mastermind coodinator Brian Daboll. Interestingly, Buffalo's ground attack has been just fine, gaining 260 yards on 55 rush attempts. Once the passing attack gets back up to speed, look out. I'm willing to bet on that happening in this matchup. On the flip side, while Buffalo's defensive numbers through two games are solid, it's had everything to do with the opposition it has faced, Pittsburgh with an aging and noodle-armed QB in Ben Roethlisberger and Miami which was forced to turn to journeyman backup QB Jacoby Brissett after Tua Tagovailoa exited early with an injury. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke has already proven to have a gunslinger mentality and enters this game having thrown for 901 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions while also running for 91 yards and a score in four previous appearances since the start of last season. Likely playing in comeback mode for most of the afternoon on Sunday, I expect Heinicke to once again pad his stats and further build on his connection with standout WR Terry McLaurin. Take the over (10*). |
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09-25-21 | Kentucky v. South Carolina UNDER 48.5 | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 80 h 46 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and South Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday. We've won countless plays on the 'under' in games involving the Kentucky Wildcats over the years. However, so far in 2021 we've seen Kentucky post a perfect 3-0 o/u record. I expect that to change on Saturday as the Wildcats hit the road for the first time this season, going up against a South Carolina Gamecocks squad that is licking its wounds after a 40-13 drubbing at the hands of Georgia last week. A couple of transfers have given the Kentucky offense a big boost so far this season, QB Will Levis and WR Wan'Dale Robinson. Let's keep things in perspective though. While the Wildcats have put up a whopping 108 points in three games - all victories - they've done so against the likes of Louisiana-Monroe, Missouri and Chattanooga, not exactly a who's who of elite defensive teams. Also keep in mind, last week against FCS squad Chattanooga, the Wildcats scored just three offensive touchdowns, with two of those coming in the game's first 29 minutes. From there, Kentucky found the end zone just once with that touchdown coming nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. The only opponent that has had any considerable success against the Kentucky defense this season was Missouri and that was because it bombed away - 52 pass attempts to be exact, yet still managed under 300 yards through the air. South Carolina isn't built that way with QBs Zeb Noland and Luke Doty both struggling. Both of these teams might be well-suited to scaling back the offense a bit here given the Wildcats have turned the football over eight times while the Gamecocks have coughed it up seven times. Both defenses have the ability to get into the backfield which makes it more difficult for the quarterbacks, all more or less pocket-passers, to have time to get the football more than 10-15 yards down the field. Two weeks ago South Carolina traveled to East Carolina and didn't score an offensive touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter. That was the Gamecocks only offensive TD of the entire game in a narrow 20-17 victory. In fact, in their last 10 quarters of football they've managed to score just three offensive touchdowns. The last time these two teams met on this field they combined to score just 31 points back in 2019. We're obviously talking about two different teams now, but I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 61.5 | Top | 35-70 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 17 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas Tech and Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring (that's an understatement) shootout between these in-state rivals last season as Texas prevailed by a 63-56 score almost a year ago to the day. I'm expecting a different story to unfold this time around, however. Texas Tech routed Florida International by a 54-21 score last week. It's worth noting that the Red Raiders were forced to punt on each of their first two drives in that game and actually trailed 7-0 before a pick-six with less than four minutes remaining in the first quarter. It wasn't until nearly three minutes into the second quarter that they scored their first offensive touchdown of the game. From there, FIU fell apart, as is often the case for big non-conference underdogs, and Texas Tech padded its offensive stats. Keep in mind, prior to that game, the Red Raiders had scored just 66 points combined in their first two games this season. That's nothing to sneeze at, but I'm not entirely convinced this is an elite offensive football team. The key here is that Texas got the perfect tune-up in a shutout performance against Rice last week. This is an experienced Longhorns defense, particularly in the secondary which is obviously an area that is of critical importance against the Red Raiders. Note that Texas enters the week ranked 87th in the country in pass yards allowed per game this season. Most will point to the Longhorns ugly 40-21 loss against Arkansas. Texas actually allowed just one touchdown in the first 36 minutes of that game. It was only when they were forced to play from behind 13-0 in the second half that they abandoned the run and their offense couldn't stay on the field, allowing the Hogs to run it up. Texas Tech is obviously known for its offense, but it has held up well defensively so far this season, and obviously won't have to deal with QB Sam Ehlinger for the Longhorns this time around. The Red Raiders already faced a tough road test against Houston (2-1) back in Week 1 on the fast track at NRG Stadium. They got off to a rough start in that game, allowing two first quarter touchdowns, but from there they gave up just one score the rest of the way, pitching a shutout in the second half. That was against a Cougars squad that proceeded to put up 89 points on over 800 yards of total offense over the next two games. Note that Texas Tech returns 11 of its top 13 tacklers from last season and checks in as one of the healthiest teams in the nation entering Week 4. The Red Raiders boast plenty of size and talent up front to help contain the Longhorns ground attack, while the secondary boasts a trio of 'super seniors' as a result of the unique Covid rules regarding player eligibility. Take the under (10*). |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia UNDER 67 | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 83 h 36 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. We're dealing with a very high total in this game, perhaps rightfully so given Virginia is coming off a wild game that featured a whopping 98 points against North Carolina last Saturday night. Let's keep that result in perspective, however. Wake Forest is not North Carolina. The Tar Heels have been in a foul mood ever since opening the season with a stunningly-poor offensive showing in a loss to Virginia Tech - and they have the talent to back it up led by future NFL quarterback Sam Howell. While Wake Forest has scored 42, 41 and 35 points in starting the season 3-0, the first two games came against the likes of Old Dominion and FCS squad Norfolk State and last week's 35-point performance against Florida State was aided by a number of Seminoles miscues. The Demon Deacons orchestrated four touchdown drives against the 'Noles but two of those were kept alive by FSU penalties. I've been encouraged by the Wake Forest defense through three games, noting that in their first two contests they allowed just three touchdowns, with two of those coming when those games were long decided late in the fourth quarter. They gave up two first half scores against Florida State last week but then shut the 'Noles out over the game's final 33 minutes. Virginia has lit up the scoreboard through three games but again, the level of competition is worth noting as its first two games were against FCS squad William & Mary and a rebuilding Illinois team. After falling by a 59-39 score last Saturday in Chapel Hill, I'm not sure the Cavaliers are all that interested in another track meet here. They've done a nice job of controlling proceedings defensively in their two home games this season, allowing just two touchdowns with both of those coming in a game that wasn't competitive against Illinois (we won with Virginia in that contest). Here, they should benefit from facing a Demon Deacons offense that has been a little more one-dimensional this season with QB Sam Hartman shouldering much of the load. RB Christian Beal-Smith is a capable back, but not really a home run hitter out of the backfield like we've seen in recent years from the Deacs'. This matchup produced 63 total points last year as Wake Forest rolled to a 43-20 victory. I look for both offenses to find success moving the football in this one but with enough of those drives stalling, or resulting in 3's rather than 7's to help keep the final score 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Packers return home in a smash spot off last week's dismantling at the hands of the Saints. Green Bay's performance last week was as bad as it gets, particularly on the offensive side of the football. This is the perfect bounce back spot, however, as the Packers play their home-opener in primetime against a Lions defense that has the potential to be very bad this year. Detroit got throttled 41-33 by the 49ers in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated last Sunday (we got back-doored with the Niners in that game). What did we learn from that game? The Lions defense is by no means ready for primetime and now has to make do without arguably its best player in CB Jeff Okudah. Question his motivation and general interest in football at this point all you want, but Packers QB Aaron Rodgers should absolutely roast the Lions defense on Monday night. All of Green Bay's key skill position players on offense are poised for monster performances off last week's complete no-show. As WR DaVante Adams put it, last week's result was easy to toss in the trash. Forget it and move on. The real question is whether the Lions can do enough offensively to lift the final score 'over' the total. I believe they can. I think there's a false narrative out there that the Lions are going to be a 'ground and pound' offense with Dan Campbell at the helm. We saw in last week's game that Campbell won't hesitate to abandon the run should things go sideways and perhaps in watching Jared Goff carve up a capable 49ers defense in the fourth quarter he learned something about his offense. While the Lions have two capable running backs in DeAndre Swift and former Packer Jamaal Williams, I don't think they'll bang their heads against the wall running the football all night on Monday. Detroit knows it doesn't have the defense to turn this game into a slugfest. Instead, I look for the Lions to once again open things up on offense, leaning heavily on the likes of Swift (in the passing game) and TE T.J. Hockenson, who proved very useful against the Packers in two meetings last year, catching 10 passes for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Last season we saw totals of 77. 63, 50, 66, 55 and 51 points when the Packers faced NFC North opponents. Also note that Green Bay averages over 35 points per game when coming off a game in which it allowed 30+ points over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 55.3 points. Off a loss of any kind of the last three seasons, the Packers next game has averaged a total of 52.4 points scored. It takes a lot for an NFL game to stay 'under' the total these days - in fact, we've yet to see a primetime game go 'under' this season ('over' is a perfect 5-0). While an 'under' result is certainly coming, I don't think it happens here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati v. Indiana UNDER 50 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
CFB First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off blowout victories over FCS squads last week with Cincinnati putting up 42 points in a rout of Murray State and Indiana scoring a whopping 56 points in a dismantling of Idaho. Here, I'm expecting a much more tempered offensive start given there's so much on the line for both teams. Cincinnati entered the season with CFP aspirations and it's all still in front of it off to a perfect 2-0 start, albeit against inferior competition. Meanwhile, Indiana opened with a blowout road loss against Iowa and needs to make a statement here as its only other non-conference matchup comes against Western Kentucky next week. This will obviously be Cincinnati's first time playing in front of a packed house on the road in quite some time. I fully expect the focus early on to be on taking care of the football and perhaps sucking some of the life out of what is sure to be a raucous Memorial Stadium. The Bearcats have the offense to do that with NFL QB prospect Desmond Ridder and Alabama transfer RB Jerome Ford, not to mention a wealth of talent at the wide receiver and tight end positions. They will be facing their toughest test of the season, however, as Indiana has built a very capable defense and one that is expected to get back one of its key cogs, CB Jaylin Williams from injury. While the Hoosiers did allow 34 points in their opener against Iowa, the defense wasn't to blame as the Hawkeyes had two pick-sixes in the first half. There was an early defensive breakdown on a long touchdown run early on but form there, the Hoosiers allowed just one more touchdown the rest of the game and that only came thanks to the Hawkeyes being given a short field and proceeding to (barely) convert a fourth down early in the second quarter. On the flip side, the question remains whether Hoosiers QB Michael Penix Jr. is healthy after last year's devastating season-ending injury. Even in last week's 56-14 rout, Penix completed just 11-of-16 passes for 68 yards (he did throw two touchdowns). He ran for a touchdown as well but actually lost 13 yards on four rush attempts in the game. Indiana will be facing an extremely difficult challenge in this one as the Bearcats defense is absolutely loaded and I believe job number one will be taking care of the football after that disastrous affair in Iowa two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of the Hoosiers ground game early on as they look to play keep away and control proceedings from the jump. Take the first half under (10*). |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team UNDER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -103 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Washington at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This is a very low total by today's NFL standards but I'm not sure it's been set low enough given the state of both of these offenses, not to mention the familiarity between the two teams and the fact they'll be playing on a short week. We saw three extremely high-scoring primetime games in Week 1 but that was to be expected given the matchups. Here, we should see a much different brand of football on display to kick off Week 2. The Giants offense is just a week into the season and it already looks downright scary - not in a good way. There was nothing creative or explosive about the G-Men offense against Denver and while that was to be expected given the strength of the Broncos lies on the defensive side of the football, this isn't much easier of a matchup for New York, if at all. With major o-line issues there's simply very little time for plays to develop before QB Daniel Jones' pocket collapses, leading to lots of short dump-off passes. RB Saquon Barkley clearly isn't all the way back from last year's devastating injury, although I do expect him to play a larger role in this week's offensive gameplan after getting only 11 touches in last Sunday's loss. Given Washington's vaunted pass rush, we can expect G-Men offensive coordinator Jason Garrett to develop a fairly conservative gameplan for Jones and the offense here, simply looking to take care of the football and sustain some drives to effectively shorten the game. Washington's offensive prospects don't look a whole lot better than New York's with QB Taylor Heinicke taking over for an injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. Heinicke won't take nearly as many chances as Fitz and this is a sneaky-tough matchup against a quality Giants secondary anyway. Washington RB Antonio Gibson is one of its biggest home run threats, along with WR Terry McLaurin, but there's still questions as to whether Gibson can take care of the football after he coughed up a pair of fumbles last week. Regardless, the Football Team should focus on churning out long, ground-oriented, clock-eating drives when on offense in this one as the Giants biggest vulnerability lies in its run defense. Take the under (10*). |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders OVER 50 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The first Monday nighter of the 2021 season matches up two teams that will feel some urgency to get off to a positive start after watching their division mates turn in (mostly) impressive performances on Sunday. For the Ravens, they're in a loaded AFC North that saw both the Steelers and Bengals prevail yesterday while the Browns hung tough but ultimately fell by the narrowest of margins on the road against the two-time defending AFC champion Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Raiders will have to contend with an improved AFC West this year - all three of their divisional counterparts secured victories on the first Sunday of the season. With all of that being said, I don't expect to see either of these teams ease their way into proceedings on Monday night. Yes, the Ravens have been ravaged by key injuries heading into the season, particularly at the running back position. I do feel this is very much a 'plug-and-play' offense, however, that obviously revolves round the play of dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. We can expect RB Ty'son Williams to step in and fill the void left by J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. With the starting job his for the taking, expect him to make a splash against a very manageable opponent on Monday. Of course, Jackson is the real key here and I expect him to have a field day against a Raiders defense that is weak at the linebacker position and also depth-shy in the secondary. With all of the changes Las Vegas made leading up to and during training camp at the linebacker and cornerback positions it's obvious that the organization has reasons for concern at those spots. Ravens TE Mark Andrew figures to be in for a big night matched up against a linebacking corps that should struggle in coverage. Las Vegas did upgrade its defensive line with the addition of Yannick Ngakoue from the Ravens in free agency. However, he's on his fourth team since 2019 and I think there's a reason for that. The Ravens weren't willing to pay up to re-sign him after he was relatively ineffective for them last season. The Raiders offense was actually pretty fun to watch last season, noting that they scored 30+ points on seven different occasions. Known for his lack of aggressiveness throwing the ball down field, we saw QB Derek Carr show some improvement in that regard last season. The Raiders used a first round pick to draft speedster Henry Ruggs in 2020, determined to stretch the field more to keep up with the likes of the high-octane Chiefs offense, and that they did, even picking up a 40-32 win at Arrowhead Stadium last October. TE Darren Waller is the real focal point of the offense, however, and I would certainly anticipate a strong performance from him in a likely high-volume spot here in the opener. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Raiders listed as a 3.5-9-point underdog over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 64.7 points. The 'over' has also gone 9-2 in the Raiders last 11 games played on turf with those contests averaging 57.6 total points. John Harbaugh's Ravens teams have had plenty of success lighting up the Raiders defense over the years, noting that in four meetings between 2015 and 2018, Baltimore put up 33, 27, 30 and 34 points. Expect more of the same on Monday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-12-21 | Jets v. Panthers OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-19 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. This one has the potential to be one of the more sneaky-entertaining, high-scoring games of the week as the Jets travel to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Carolina's offense was woeful last season, largely due to an early-season injury to do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey but also as a result of game manager Teddy Bridgewater playing quarterback. While Sam Darnold comes to Carolina with little reason for optimism based on his performance as a New York Jet, I believe Darnold could actually thrive in this Panthers offense. Unlike in New York, Darnold now has a wealth of talent to work with, starting with McCaffrey in the backfield, but also former Jet WR Robby Anderson, big play threat D.J. Moore and promising rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. The Jets secondary should be no match at all for the Panthers receiving corps. Meanwhile, the New York pass rush took a massive hit with the likes of Carl Lawson, Vinny Curry and Jarrad Davis all sidelined due to injuries. The real question here is whether first round pick QB Zach Wilson can do enough in the Jets offense to help this one 'over' the total. I believe he can. While some will chalk up his preseason success to playing against second and third-string defenders, I think we'll see some carry-over effect. Wilson has built up a strong enough rapport with his receivers, most notably former Titan Corey Davis, and should be able to take advantage of a Panthers secondary that should prove to be its defensive weakness, particularly in the early stages of the season. I wouldn't count on the Jets banging their heads against the wall trying to run the football in this one. If anything, look for some designed runs from Wilson as he provides the offensive spark the Jets have so desperately needed for so many years. Take the over (10*). |
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09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 46.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Iowa State at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Iowa's season-opener against Indiana last week and were extremely fortunate to do so as the Hawkeyes built a big lead and essentially 'parked the bus' in the second half. Here, I'm expecting both sides to contribute to keeping this one 'under' the total, noting that this rivalry series has generally been low-scoring with last year's matchup producing just 35 total points. Iowa set the tone early against Indiana last week, with RB Tyler Goodson breaking off a 56-yard touchdown run less than two minutes into the game. From there, Indiana had to take a lot more chances than it would have liked and ultimately threw a pair of pick-sixes in the first half. All told, the Hawkeyes allowed just one big play in the entire game - that being a 33-yard catch from standout Hoosiers WR Ty Fryfogle. With Iowa's ball-hawking (no pun intended) tendencies, I think we'll see Iowa State go a little more conservative on offense, noting that the Cyclones are coming off a very low-scoring 16-10 victory over FCS squad Northern Iowa last week. In that game, Iowa State scored a touchdown halfway through the second quarter but was then held out of the end zone the rest of the way. The Cyclones were efficient in the passing game but QB Brock Purdy only attempted 26 passes. Meanwhile, they ran the ball 34 times. On the flip side of that, Iowa State effectively had just one defensive breakdown in the entire game against NIU, that coming on a first quarter 52-yard catch and run that resulted in a touchdown. I do think Iowa State can find success against the rival Hawkeyes by grinding out long, clock-churning drives and essentially shortening this game. Of course, the same can be said for Iowa. Note that Hawkeyes QB Spencer Petras actually completed just 13-of-27 passes for only 145 yards in last week's 34-point performance. With both teams returning plenty of talent from last season and a win or a loss meaning so much, even at this early stage of the season with these two teams sitting in the top-25 rankings, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss OVER 75 | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Ole Miss at 8 pm et on Monday. I don't know if everyone realizes just how high the ceiling is for this Ole Miss offense this season. Last year, the Rebels put up 48+ points on four different occasions (in only 10 games). Most of the key pieces from that offense are back in place and while head coach Lane Kiffin will miss Monday's game after testing positive for Covid-19, I don't expect the offense to miss a beat. Meanwhile, the Louisville offense should be along for the ride in this one, likely playing in comeback mode for much of the night. The Cardinals are well-suited to put points on the board as well with QB Malik Cunningham firmly entrenched as the starter - unlike last season. Louisville turned in a solid 2020 campaign offensively but there's still a lot of room for improvement. Cunningham needs to take better care of the football but I don't expect him to be any less aggressive. The Cardinals lose more talent on offense than the Rebels but there are still plenty of playmakers, more than enough to give the Rebels defense some problems in this one. On the fast track in Atlanta, there's a reason why we're dealing with such a high posted total. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough. Take the over (10*). |
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09-04-21 | Indiana v. Iowa UNDER 45.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. To put it simply, I expect the defenses to be ahead of the offenses in this Week 1 Big Ten showdown at Kinnick Stadium. With that being said, I'm not sure we'll see a whole lot of 'splash plays' resulting in turnovers or short fields from the defenses that would contribute to a higher-scoring game than expected. Indiana scored more than 30 points in four of its first five games last season before the offense sputtered down the stretch, putting up just north of 20 points per game over its final three contests culminating with a 26-20 loss against Ole Miss in the Outback Bowl. The upstart Hoosiers caught some opponents - namely Penn State and Michigan - flat-footed in the early stages of last year's unique season but I don't expect them to do the same against a well-coached Iowa squad here. Michael Penix Jr. is back under center for the Hoosiers after suffering another knee injury that required season-ending surgery last year. All indications are that he's good to go for the opener but I'm not sure the Hoosiers offensive gameplan will involve throwing him to the wolves in this difficult opening week road tilt. Indiana's ground attack hasn't impressed in recent years but I do think it will make a concerted effort to control the clock and pound away a little bit in this one. Indiana's defense struggled in pass coverage a year ago but gets back plenty of experience in the secondary and should hold up just fine against a Hawkeyes offense that isn't built to bomb away. The Hoosiers defense proved more than capable of stopping the run and getting into the backfield to harass opposing quarterbacks a year ago and most of the key pieces from that unit are back. Iowa's offense took a bit of a step forward last year thanks to ultra-efficient performance in the red zone. Can it repeat that level of production this year? I'm not so sure. QB Spencer Petras loses his top two wide receivers from a year ago to begin with. Keep in mind, the Hawkeyes aerial attack managed just nine touchdowns all of last season. There's reason to believe the Iowa ground game can continue to find success, even with Mekhi Sargent moving on to the NFL (and impressing in preseason action with the Titans). Tyler Goodson is a quality running back that seems like he's been around forever, but he's not exactly a true home run hitter out of the backfield. There will be times where the Hawkeyes offense plods along in this contest. Last year, Hawkeyes home games produced 41, 56, 46 and 35 total points. That was about par for the course for a team that has become accustomed to playing tight, relatively low-scoring affairs here at Kinnick Stadium over the years. There will be opportunities to sneak in 'over' plays in games involving Iowa this season as we're almost always afforded relatively low totals. I just don't believe this is such a spot. Take the under (10*). |
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08-28-21 | Hawaii v. UCLA UNDER 70.5 | Top | 10-44 | Win | 100 | 218 h 21 m | Show |
CFB on ESPN TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and UCLA at 3:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th. This is being pegged as a shootout. That's not surprising considering Hawaii is known for its high-flying offensive ways (even if that hasn't necessarily held true in recent years) and UCLA has plenty of returning talent under the guidance of offensive guru Chip Kelly. I believe the total will prove to be too high, however, as the two teams could surprise defensively. Hawaii returns last year's defense virtually intact. Expect defensive-minded head coach Todd Graham to treat this as an excellent 'measuring stick game' right out of the gates against a quality UCLA offense. The Rainbow Warriors boast speed all over the defensive backfield and should be able to do a good job of limiting big plays down the field in this one. They're also well-positioned to minimize UCLA's effectiveness on the ground with a substantial defensive line led by NT Blessman Ta'ala. LB Darius Muasau is by no means a household name but he's a stud linebacker that led the team in tackles a year ago, including 4.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss. Offensively, I expect Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro to do enough running to help keep drives alive, moving the chains and ultimately shortening this game by keeping the clock moving. Cordeiro isn't going to wow anyone with his arm and I don't expect him to be put in too many high-risk situations against an opportunistic UCLA defense here. Instead, look for him to take what the Bruins give him and rely on steady RB Calvin Turner to pound away on early downs. The Bruins have to replace their leading rusher from a year ago but outside of that, their offense is loaded. I simply question whether we'll see them hit the ground running right out of the gates in this non-conference Week 0 affair. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been dealing with an undisclosed injury but is expected to be good to go for the season-opener. The ceiling is sky-high for this offense but as I mentioned, Hawaii has a capable defense that could make life at least a little bit difficult here. Defensively, UCLA loses Osa Odighizuwa to the NFL but returns the bulk of the defense that finished last season sixth in the Pac-12 in total defense and second in scoring defense. This is a season-opening matchup it can handle but I do think the Bruins could end up on the field a little more than they would like should the Warriors pound away as I would expect them to. That only serves to help our cause with the potential for long, clock-churning drives. Take the under (10*). |
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01-16-21 | Ravens v. Bills OVER 50 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -102 | 55 h 22 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I believe this has the potential to be the most entertaining - and highest-scoring - game of the Divisional Round. Baltimore got 'over the hump' so to speak with a come-from-behind win in Tennessee last Sunday. This Ravens offense has seemingly been getting better with each passing week - no longer the run-first (and run-only) offense that we saw a year ago. QB Lamar Jackson did it with his arm and his legs in last week's contest and should pick up right where he left off against what I consider to be an overrated Bills defense. Buffalo didn't get after Colts statue-esque QB Philip Rivers last Saturday and will be hard-pressed to do so against Jackson here. Of course, the Bills offense can score with the best of them and while this is a tough matchup against a stout Ravens defense, I believe QB Josh Allen and his terrific receiving corps will be up to the challenge. Last week it was the Stefon Diggs show but here against the Ravens I look for John Brown and Cole Beasley to step up as well. I don't expect to see Buffalo do too much running in this game, which certainly works in our favor, lending itself to shorter, but still productive, drives. I don't expect either side to back down in what I project as a back-and-forth shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 42.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with this same play the last time these two teams met in Week 16 - a game that totaled just 29 points. While I'm not going to count on another sub-30-point result here, I do expect this third meeting of the season to say 'under' the low posted total. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson threw just one touchdown compared to two interceptions in two regular season meetings between these two NFC West rivals. There's little reason to expect a sudden breakout here, with Wilson being asked to do far less down the stretch during the regular season, as the Seahawks defense rose to prominence. Meanwhile, the Rams offense has a big question mark under center - will it be Wolford or Goff under center? Regardless which quarterback gets the start, they're likely to struggle against a Seattle defense that absolutely rounded into form at the most critical point of the season. I do believe Los Angeles can have some success moving the football and orchestrating long, clock-churning drives in this game (the return of left tackle Andrew Whitworth is key) but I'm not confident in its ability to end many of those drives with 7's on the board. Much like the Rams, the Seahawks defense has the ability to take away big plays downfield, and the presence of Wolford (or Goff for that matter) also keeps a cap on that big-play potential. These two teams know each other inside and out and their recent matchups have been un-exciting for those that love wild, high-scoring shootouts. Expect another hard-fought, low-scoring affair on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL UNDER 61.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Miami at 5:30 pm et on Tuesday. This game is being pegged as a potential offensive shootout. I'm not so sure that's how it will play out on the field, however. Oklahoma State was supposed to contend for a Big 12 Championship this season but a nagging ankle injury to RB Chuba Hubbard helped derail its hopes, and now Hubbard has opted-out of the Cheez-It Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. While the Cowboys offensive cupboard is by no means bare without Hubbard, I expect them to have their work cut out for them here. That's mainly because QB Spencer Sanders has failed to impress in his sophomore campaign. He threw more than a single touchdown pass just twice in eight games during the regular season and threw at least one interception in six of those contests. He's likely to be under duress for much of this game with Miami ranking a respectable 39th in the nation in sack percentage with that ranking rising to ninth over its last three games. Yes, the Canes have struggled against the run, which is the Cowboys strength, but here I'm not sure they'll respect Sanders enough to stray from stacking the box and forcing him to beat them through the air. On the flip side, the Miami offense showed flashes of brilliance with transfer QB D'Eriq King this season, but now face an underrated Oklahoma State defense that ranks ninth in the country in sack percentage and 22nd in yards allowed per pass attempt. Note that Miami RB Cam'Ron Harris ran for exactly 134 yards in each of his first two games this season but never reached those heights again, topping out at 96 rush yards over his last eight contests while being held to 63 rush yards or less in seven of those. It doesn't take many stalled drives to stay 'under' a lofty total such as this one. Both offenses are capable of moving the football but long, clock-churning drives can work in our favor in this case. Take the under (10*). |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers OVER 54 | Top | 14-40 | Push | 0 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. We've seen this total drop and that likely has something to do with the forecast calling for possible snow and cold conditions at Lambeau Field on Sunday night. We're not likely going to see the type of weather that has a real impact on scoring, however, and I certainly feel that this game has shootout potential in the second-last Sunday Nighter of the regular season. We rode the Titans offense to victory in last week's blowout win over the Lions but the matchup is obviously much tougher here as they travel to face the Packers. With that being said, I like Tennessee's chances of finding continued offensive success with QB Ryan Tannehill having settled into a groove with standout WR duo A.J. Brown and Corey Davis and RB Derrick Henry absolutely running wild down the stretch. Henry draws a favorable matchup here against a Packers defense that can't stop the run. On the flip side, the Packers offense is relatively healthy and figures to feast on a bottom of the barrel Titans defense that has only avoided embarrassment thanks to facing the lowly Jaguars and Lions over the last two weeks. Tennessee doesn't get after opposing quarterbacks at all, which spells likely doom against MVP front-runner Aaron Rodgers. Note that only three teams have allowed more yardage to wide receivers than the Titans this season, setting this up as a monster spot for WR Davante Adams and company. Take the over (10*). |
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12-27-20 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 50 | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I really liked the way the 'over' set up in the Eagles narrow loss to the Cardinals week but didn't end up playing it due to the inconsistent nature of the two offenses. It was obviously the wrong decision but that high-scoring outcome does seem to be leading plenty of bettors to the window to play the 'over' in this one. Most are very high on Eagles rookie QB Jalen Hurts' after he ran wild against the Saints and then threw for 300+ yards against the Cardinals last week. I'm not convinced we're going to see another big performance from Hurts in the boxscore on Sunday, however - even if this is a mouth-watering matchup against the lowly Cowboys. Keep in mind, while Hurts did throw for 338 yards and three touchdowns in Arizona, he also took six sacks, fumbled the ball three times and completed just 24-of-44 passes. In other words, Hurts is no sure thing to explode against an admittedly beatable Cowboys defense on Sunday. With each passing week opponents have a little more tape on Hurts and it's not as if he has an elite supporting cast. Dallas' offense remains in shambles, although you wouldn't know it by last week's wild 41-33 win over the 49ers. That high-scoring result serves us well here as it keeps this total higher than it probably should be noting these two teams combined for 32 points the last time they faced each other. While the Eagles are dealing with a cluster of injuries in their secondary, I'm not sure that QB Andy Dalton and the Dallas offense is capable of taking advantage. Philadelphia still has a vaunted pass rush, ranking second in the NFL in sack percentage this season. The Cowboys offense ranks 23rd in sacks allowed per game. Take the under (10*). |
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12-26-20 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 54 | Top | 47-7 | Push | 0 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
NFL Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Saturday. This is an absolute smash spot for the Bucs offense coming off an encouraging come-from-behind win in Atlanta last Sunday. Detroit is a mess defensively with a number of key cogs missing, including their top two cornerbacks. The Bucs should be able to take their pick here as to whether they want to throw all over the Lions beatable pass defense or run wild against their non-existent run defense. While I've been high on the Bucs defense for much of the season, I do think Detroit can do some damage in this game with enough skill position players performing well (most notably WR Marvin Jones, TE T.J. Hockenson and RB D'Andre Swift) to instill confidence in this possible letdown game for Tampa Bay. QB Matt Stafford is still banged-up nursing multiple injuries but there's little reason to expect him to do anything but bomb away in this 'nothing to lose' matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston UNDER 60.5 | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Houston at 3:30 pm et on Thursday. This one is being pegged as a potential shootout between the Rainbow Warriors and Cougars - after all, both programs are known for their high-octane offenses and what else would we want to see on Christmas Eve other than a wild, high-scoring affair? With that being said, I believe this lofty total will prove too high. Hawaii checks in ranked 88th in the nation in points per play, struggling against any defense with a pulse this season. While Houston could be undermanned due to ineligibility and opt-outs, it still possesses a defense that ranks an impressive eighth in the country in sack percentage. Meanwhile, the Warriors offense ranked a miserable 92nd in the nation in QB sacked percentage this season. It's certainly worth noting that the Cougars are expected to miss arguably their best offensive player in WR Marquez Stevenson, who has apparently elected to opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft. While the cupboard is by no means bare for the Cougars on offense, QB Clayton Tune can't be asked to do it all. Hawaii actually finished the season ranked a respectable 39th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt. I suspect we'll see plenty of long, clock-churning drives in this game, ultimately keeping it 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-20-20 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 47 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. I can understand the relatively low posted total here as we saw just 32 points scored the last time these two teams met back on November 16th in Chicago. However, the domed environment in Minnesota along with the steady improvement of the Bears offense with Mitchell Trubisky under center (I can't believe I'm saying that) should lead to a much higher-scoring affair here. Only four teams have allowed more touchdown passes than the Vikings this season and that's had a lot to do with the fact that they've had virtually no success getting after opposing quarterbacks. Trubisky and WR Allen Robinson in particular should have a field day on Sunday afternoon. Interestingly enough, a key to this play could be the ability of the Bears defense to minimize Vikings RB Dalvin Cook's effectiveness. That should force QB Kirk Cousins to take to the air more often than usual, which would be a good thing for us with an 'over' ticket in hand as the Bears are vulnerable against the pass and Cousins has a true dynamic duo at WR in Adam Thielen and standout rookie Justin Jefferson. This has the potential to turn into a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos OVER 49 | Top | 48-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Denver at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting a relatively high-scoring affair as the Bills head to Denver to face the Broncos on Saturday. The Buffalo offense is certainly catching the Denver defense as the right time with the Broncos missing numerous key cogs on that side of the football. Vic Fangio is a terrific defensive coach but he can only do so much with the limited personnel he has on hand. Missing the majority of its starting secondary, the Broncos are likely to get lit up by a red hot Josh Allen. Note that no team has allowed more rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks than the Broncos this season and we know Allen can be just as much of a threat with his legs as he is with his arm. Denver showed plenty of life offensively in last week's road win over the Panthers - scoring 32 points in the process. With the Broncos offensive line getting back to full strength, QB Drew Lock could be in for another solid day statistically on Saturday. Lock has obviously become accustomed to playing from behind, which is likely to be the case again here. Look for the Broncos to do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State UNDER 58.5 | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma and Iowa State at 12 noon et on Saturday. This isn't the first time we've played the 'under' in the Big 12 Championship Game. It seems that on an annual basis most bettors are comfortable backing the 'over' in this contest played on the fast track at AT&T Stadium. Note that only one of the last five Big 12 title games have totaled more than 58 points. Of course, Oklahoma is a perennial Big 12 title contender having appeared in this game in seven of the last eight years. I consider this year's Sooners squad to be a little different. I certainly don't put QB Spencer Rattler in the same category as the previous three players to QB the Sooners in this game, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield. Note that Rattler has thrown for more than two touchdowns just once in his last five games. He topped out at 332 passing yards in those games, topping 300 yards only twice. Also note that he's been sacked seven times in the last two contests. Obviously the Sooners still boast a potent offense but they're running into a tough opponent in Iowa State here. The Cyclones have been a largely underrated commodity for much of this season and check in having allowed just 26 points over their last three games combined. Iowa State checks in 29th in the nation in points allowed per play. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has also been stout defensively, ranking 37th in the country in points allowed per play. While the Cyclones have had some breakout performances offensively, they're not what I would consider a juggernaut in that regard. QB Brock Purdy hasn't attempted more than 36 passes in a game since back on October 10th against Texas Tech. When these two teams met back on October 24th we saw a wild 37-30 game won by Iowa State. That game was actually fairly defensive until a late fourth quarter scoring flurry that saw three touchdowns in the game's final eight minutes. Take the under (10*). |
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12-18-20 | UAB v. Marshall UNDER 42.5 | Top | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 57 h 11 m | Show |
CFB Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UAB and Marshall at 7 pm et on Friday. This is certainly a low total by today's college football standards but much like our play on the 'under' in last Saturday's Wisconsin-Iowa matchup, I believe it is warranted. UAB shook off the rust after not playing for over a month due to Covid protocols, holding on for a 21-16 win but non-cover against Rice last week. The Blazers are expected to get some reinforcements on both sides of the ball this week with their entire team testing negative for Covid earlier this week. That means they'll have their tremendous stable of running backs back on the field. While that may help them extend their offensive drives in this game, it's certainly worth noting that Marshall has been extremely stingy against opposing running backs this season. In fact, the Thundering Herd rank tied for top spot in the nation in rush yards allowed per attempt (along with Georgia) at a measly 2.3. Only Cincinnati has allowed fewer points per play than Marshall this season. Of course, UAB can hold its own in that department as well with a loaded, experienced defense that ranks 21st in the nation in points per play allowed. The Blazers check in an impressive 16th in the country in yards allowed per game. I don't have a great deal of confidence in either starting quarterback in this matchup to be honest. I really think that both teams will enter this game with a focus on running the football, controlling the clock and letting their defenses take care of the rest. Expect Tyler Johnston and Grant Wells to assume dreaded 'game manager' roles with a Conference Championship on the line. There will be a few big plays, but I'm confident the game ultimately slides 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-12-20 | Wisconsin v. Iowa UNDER 42 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in this Big Ten showdown on Saturday afternoon. This game pits a matchup of two of the nation's best defensive teams while at the same time two teams that boast inconsistent, ball control, clock-churning offensive attacks. Last year we saw 46 total points in this same matchup but that game also featured a 250+ yard rushing performance from current Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor. Were it not for his success that game easily could have been far lower-scoring. Note that the Badgers and Hawkeyes have stayed true to character here in 2020, combining fierce defense with conservative offense and the formula has worked with varied success. The Badgers and Hawkeyes check in fourth and fifth respectively in terms of points allowed per play. No team allows fewer offensive touchdowns per game than Wisconsin and while Iowa checks in a less impressive 23rd in the nation in that category, we're talking about 127 qualifying teams. The Badgers ran up the score in their first two games against Illinois and Michigan this season but that had more to do with their opponent's defensive ineptitude than anything else. Note that they've yet to have a 100-yard rusher in a game this season while QB Graham Mertz has thrown for just 559 yards and three touchdowns over his last three games. Ball security needs to be a focal point this week as he has tossed four picks in the last two games. With that in mind, look for Mertz to be relegated to a true game manager role here. Iowa's offense has been a little more consistent but will face a tough challenge against the Badgers defense this week. We've seen the Hawkeyes feast on some weak Big Ten defenses this season but also struggle against the likes of Purdue, Northwestern and Nebraska - only one of which I would consider a truly elite defensive squad (Northwestern). QB Spencer Petras has thrown more than a single touchdown just once in seven games - that coming against a hapless Illinois defense last week. I suspect both teams will be content with turning this one into a slugfest. While we're dealing with a low posted total, it could be even lower in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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12-10-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Southern Miss UNDER 44 | Top | 31-45 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss at 6:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' as FAU and Southern Miss close out their respective regular seasons on Thursday night. This is a major flat spot for the Owls as they suffered a deflating 20-3 loss to Georgia Southern - snapping their four-game winning streak - last time out. With Marshall's game getting canceled this week, the Owls now have virtually no shot at earning a spot in the C-USA Championship Game. For Southern Miss, this game brings a merciful end to what has been a highly disappointing 2020 campaign. It all started with a 32-21 loss to South Alabama and never really turned around from there. While there were some positive signs from the Eagles offense earlier in the season, those disappeared down the stretch with USM scoring just 33 points in its last three games against FBS opposition. Against a strong FAU defense, with nothing but pride to play for on Thursday night, I'm not expecting a sudden turnaround from the Eagles offense. Take the under (10*). |
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12-06-20 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 50.5 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -109 | 71 h 38 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair as the Chiefs should ultimately have their way with the weary, injury-plagued Broncos on Sunday night - just as they did in their earlier matchup this season. Denver limps into this contest off a beatdown at the hands of the Saints last Sunday. Of course, the Broncos didn't have a hope of competing in that game with little-used wide receiver Kendall Hinton starting at quarterback. Here, they'll get QB Drew Lock back on the field and while he will likely struggle to take care of the football against an aggressive Chiefs defense, I do have some faith in him to orchestrate some scoring drives once this contest gets out of hand. It's not as if Kansas City possesses a shut down defensive unit - they're been vulnerable against the pass this season, struggling in particular against the tight end position and Denver has a sneaky-good one in Noah Fant. Likewise, Kansas City has had a tough time defending the run, allowing just north of 4.5 yards per rush. I don't need to say a lot about the Chiefs explosive offense. What you see is what you get as QB Patrick Mahomes is playing some of the best football of his career. The Chiefs should have little trouble exposing an injury-ravaged Broncos defense that gives up over 4.8 yards per rush and has been tagged for four touchdowns to WR Tyreek Hill alone over the last three matchups between these AFC West foes. As an added bonus, we can likely anticipate some short fields for the Chiefs offense thanks to their opportunistic defense taking advantage of a mistake-prone Drew Lock. Take the over (10*). |
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12-06-20 | Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47 | Top | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. It's not easy betting NFL 'unders' these days but we won with the 'under' in the Seahawks most recent game - Monday's 23-17 win in Philadelphia and Seattle has actually seen its last three games stay 'under' the total. Here, I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair as the Seahawks host the Giants. New York will be without QB Daniel Jones in this game, which means we should see an increased focus on running the football and churning out long drives in an effort to keep the Seahawks offense off the field (and protect mistake-prone veteran QB Colt McCoy). I'm high on the Giants defense and believe they're capable of rising to the occasion again here, especially given Seattle's recent shift to a more conservative gameplan after Russell Wilson's early November struggles. The Seahawks have been doing just enough on offense to win games in recent weeks, and letting their defense take care of the rest - a defense that has certainly been playing some of its best football of the season. Take the under (10*). |
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12-03-20 | Air Force v. Utah State OVER 51 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
Mountain West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Air Force and Utah State at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with Utah State in its 'upset' win over New Mexico last week but I'm going to switch gears and back the 'over' as the Aggies host 2-2 Air Force on Thursday night. I was high on Utah State's defense only due to the matchup last Thursday as New Mexico's offense had been as punchless as they come. While the Aggies certainly did enough defensively to win that game, we did see some serious cracks, especially after they were able to build a big third quarter lead. When they had a chance to really put the game to bed, they couldn't get their defense off the field as the Lobos went on a pair of touchdown drives that got them back into the game. Utah State hasn't done a good job defending the run this season and now faces Air Force's dominant option-based ground attack. I don't see the Aggies faring particularly well. Meanwhile, the Air Force defense has taken a step back after ranking near the top of the Mountain West Conference in most categories a year ago. That's not a surprise given all the turnover to their roster on that side of the football. While the Falcons are coming off a shutout victory, that came at the expense of aforementioned New Mexico. I'm willing to take a flyer on the Utah State offense here after QB Andrew Peasley stepped in and showed he could be a dual threat in last week's victory. While some regression should be in order, he'll by no means be facing an elite defense. Take the over (10*). |
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12-02-20 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Pittsburgh at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. This is obviously one of the more unique scheduling situations we've seen in NFL history and I'm anticipating a bit of a disjointed affair from both sides. The Ravens are obviously decimated with injuries and Covid-related absences. Robert Griffin III will get the start at quarterback and I expect him to serve as little more than a game manager in this one. With the Steelers struggling to slow down opposing ground games in recent weeks, I do believe Baltimore can have some success running the football, but that might only lead to long, clock-churning drives rather than 7's on the board. On the flip side, the Steelers always seem to have a tendency to play down to the level of their opposition and this is a division rivalry game after all. I'm not convinced we'll see the Pittsburgh offense operating at peak efficiency. Even with RB James Conner sidelined, I think we'll see the Steelers make a concerted effort to pound the football and ultimately shorten this game. It really is a 'win and move on' type of situation for Mike Tomlin's squad as far as I'm concerned. Take the under (10*). |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 49 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. While I'm not expecting a defensive slugfest in this game (those type of affairs are virtually non-existent in today's NFL) I do believe the total will prove to be too high. Seattle's offense has taken a step back in the last couple of games and while this does look like a favorable matchup at first glance, a deeper looks shows the Eagles have proven capable of limiting the big play potential of opposing wide receivers while also playing tough run defense, giving up just 3.4 yards per rush. I believe we'll see Seahawks QB Russell Wilson orchestrate plenty of long, clock-churning drives in this game. Note that Seattle was the best 'over' bet in the league earlier in the season but has now seen its last two games stay 'under' the total. Philadelphia's offense continues to be hampered by injuries on the offensive line and a largely ineffective QB in Carson Wentz. The Eagles will trot out their eighth different offensive line combination in 11 games on Monday night. Head coach Doug Pederson has also alluded to the fact that rookie backup QB Jalen Hurts could see more playing time and I'm not sure that's a positive for an offense that is trying to find some continuity. Note that the Seahawks pass rush has stepped up in recent weeks, recording 16 sacks in their last four games. Wentz has certainly been prone to drive-stalling plays (no quarterback has taken more sacks this season) and I believe we could see more of that tonight, with Philadelphia moving the football but not finishing drives with 7's on the board. Take the under (10*). |
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11-29-20 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Rams last game - a 27-24 win over Tampa Bay on Monday night. That was somewhat of an uncharacteristic breakout performance from the Los Angeles offense, but with the Bucs defense suddenly slumping, perhaps it shouldn't have come as a surprise. Here, the Rams go up against a familiar divisional foe in the 49ers and while San Francisco continues to play without a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football, that unit has still managed to hold its own, allowing just over 3.5 yards per rush and limiting the big play potential of opposing offenses. Meanwhile, the Niners offense is a shell of its former self with a number of key players sidelined due to Covid or otherwise. We may see the Niners make some headway on the ground in this one but that actually plays into our favor as we could see them grind out some clock-churning drives, but perhaps not be able to finish many of those drives with 7's on the board. You'd be hard-pressed to find a defense that minimizes the impact of opposing wide receivers more than the Rams. Take the under (10*). |
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11-29-20 | Giants v. Bengals OVER 44 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
NFL Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a smash spot for the Giants offense (now that's something we don't say very often) as they return from their bye week to face a Bengals defense that has been blown up time and time again this season. Only three teams have recorded fewer sacks and five fewer quarterback hits than Cincinnati this season which should really open things up for promising but mistake-prone Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. While the G-Men by no means boast an elite ground attack they should have little trouble running wild against a Bengals defense that allows well over five yards per rush this season. Of course, few are expecting much from the Cincinnati offense now that super rookie Joe Burrow is sidelined for the year. With that being said, I believe the Bengals have a bit of upside here as they catch New York in a possible letdown or even lookahead spot now that Burrow is out. Word is that Brandon Allen will get the call-up from the practice squad to start this game. I prefer Allen over backup Ryan Finley, noting that Allen did see some game action with the Broncos last year and has some history with Bengals head coach Zac Taylor from their days together with the Rams. It's not as if Allen is devoid of any weapons as WR Tyler Boyd remains a home run threat at any given time. One thing I don't think we'll see is Cincinnati go on long, clock-churning drives in this game, which plays into our hands with the 'over'. Take the over (10*). |
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11-28-20 | Utah v. Washington UNDER 48 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Washington at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We cashed a free play on the 'under' in Utah's season-opening loss to USC last Saturday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Utes head to Washington to face the Huskies. All things considered, Utah held up well defensively against the Trojans last week, allowing just 357 total yards while recording three sacks and forcing a pair of turnovers, including one they returned for a touchdown. Offensively, the Utes will need some time to mesh with a lot of new pieces in place this year. This is a tough second matchup against a good Huskies defense that comes in off a bye week due to a Covid-related cancellation last Saturday. Washington has allowed just 48 points through two games this season but that includes a punt return touchdown against Oregon State. Note that in the Huskies most recent game they actually pitched a shutout until the fourth quarter against Arizona. Offensively, Washington isn't all that threatening. It took advantage of a bad Wildcats defense last time out but will obviously be facing a difficult matchup against a perennially-tough Utes defense on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-27-20 | Nebraska v. Iowa OVER 53 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Nebraska and Iowa at 1 pm et on Friday. We cashed our Big Ten Total of the Month in October with the 'under' in Iowa's 21-20 loss to Northwestern. Since then, the Hawkeyes have rattled off three straight wins, scoring 49, 35 and 41 points in the process. Iowa's offense draws another favorable matchup on Friday as Nebraska comes in off a disappointing 41-23 home loss to Illinois. The Huskers defense isn't stopping anyone right now and will certainly have their hands full once again on Friday afternoon. I do expect Nebraska to show up, however, on the strength of an offense that is better than it has showed (at least in my opinion). The Huskers took three sacks and turned the football over a whopping five times last week against Illinois, but still managed to score 23 points. Meanwhile, Iowa recorded five sacks and forced five turnovers but still gave up 21 points on the road against Penn State last Saturday. I'm not going to overthink the situation here as I expect a physical Iowa offense to make life miserable for the Huskers defense while Nebraska should stay competitive in what amounts to the biggest game left on its 2020 calendar. I do think the Huskers worst offensive performances are behind them as their schedule was front-loaded with a tough season-opening three-game slate at Ohio State, vs. Wisconsin (that game was canceled) and at Northwestern. Take the over (10*). |
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11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
NFL Turkey Day Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. We frustratingly missed the mark with the 'over' in the Texans most recent game - a narrow victory over the Patriots last Sunday that saw the scoring fizzle in the second half. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well as Houston draws an even more favorable matchup on the road against the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. We noted in our analysis last week that Texans QB DeShaun Watson would likely benefit from facing little pressure against the Pats and the same holds true here as Detroit ranks last in the NFL in quarterback hit rate. Watson has certainly looked a lot more comfortable in the Texans offense since head coach Bill O'Brien was sent packing and he should enjoy another big day statistically on Thursday. Likewise, the Texans mediocre running game should flourish against a Lions defense that gives up 4.7 yards per rush. On the flip side, the Detroit offense continues to deal with key injuries, most notably to WR Kenny Golladay - the focal point of its offense. With that being said, QB Matt Stafford has seen it all and draws a favorable matchup against a weak Texans defense that is certainly worse than it showed against an inefficient Patriots offense last Sunday. Like Detroit, Houston doesn't get after opposing quarterbacks which should be music to the ears of Stafford, who is used to taking a beating in the Lions pocket. Meanwhile, the Lions ground attack sets up very well against a Texans run defense that has been virtually non-existent, allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per rush on the season. This one has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between two NFC squads that believe they're Super Bowl contenders in the Rams and Bucs. Los Angeles has regained its defensive swagger here in 2020. No team has allowed fewer yards per pass attempt and the Rams have also been tough on opposing ground attacks, giving up just a shade over four yards per rush. While the Bucs exploded offensively last week (we won with Tampa Bay in that game), that was against a below average Panthers defense. Here, Tom Brady's number one job will be taking care of the football and keeping the Bucs offense on schedule with long, methodical drives down the field. On the flip side, the Rams offense draws a tough matchup against a Bucs defense that is still among the league's best, even after that poor showing in front of a national audience against the Saints two weeks ago. Rams QB Jared Goff hasn't fared well when under pressure throughout his career, and he should be under duress for much of this contest with Tampa Bay entering the week second in the NFL in sacks. I mentioned the Rams run defense earlier - the Bucs have been even better in that regard, giving up a measly three yards per rush. I just don't believe anything will come easy for these two offenses on Monday night and we're working with a reasonably high total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Patriots v. Texans OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This one sets up as a shootout in Houston as the suddenly rejuvenated Patriots challenge the Texans. Houston's defense has been virtually non-existent this season, against both the pass and the run. The Texans aren't generating any semblance of a pass rush and that spells trouble as Pats dual-threat QB Cam Newton looks healthy again and seems to be getting stronger with each passing week. Incredibly, Houston is allowing north of 5.5 yards per rush which should really open things up for New England offense, which is admittedly a little undermanned. Meanwhile, the Houston offense has looked like a different unit since moving on from head coach Bill O'Brien. And speaking of defenses that don't get after opposing quarterbacks, the Patriots fall into that category as well. Even statuesque QB Joe Flacco was able to absolutely torch the Pats two weeks ago. There's little reason to expect anything different here. Also like the Texans, the Pats have struggled to contain opposing ground attacks, giving up 4.6 yards per rush on the season. All in all, both offenses are set up well inside ideal conditions at NRG Stadium and I'm fully expecting offensive fireworks. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-20 | Broncos v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | Top | 12-37 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a shootout between these AFC West rivals in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'over' in the Broncos loss in Atlanta last Sunday and there's little reason to go any other way this week as they take on the surging Raiders. Broncos QB Drew Lock didn't exactly flourish in last week's favorable matchup with the Falcons but he did eventually get the offensive moving and put points on the board and I look for him to build off of that performance here. The Raiders aren't applying any pressure on opposing quarterbacks - a contrast to the pressure Lock has been under in recent weeks. Given a clean pocket I'm confident Lock can continue to build on his solid rapport with his young receiving corps, most notable Jerry Jeudy, who is looking like a star in the making. Also note that Las Vegas has been terrible against the run, allowing a whopping 4.7 yards per rush which should open things up even more for this Denver offense. I have no concerns at all about the Raiders offense thriving against the Broncos injury-plagued defense. Denver hasn't been particularly tough against the run or the pass and the Raiders are quietly ascending to elite-level status on offense. Look for TE Darren Waller and RB Josh Jacobs in particular to feast in this matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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11-10-20 | Akron v. Ohio UNDER 57 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This should be a 'name your score' type of game for Ohio as it looks to bounce back from a 30-27 loss against Central Michigan last week against perennial MAC bottom-feeder Akron. With that being said, I'm not convinced we're going to see a ton of offensive fireworks. The Bobcats did well to put up 27 points in last week's setback, although it's worth noting that seven of those points came by way of a kickoff return for a touchdown. QB Nathan Rourke did it all for Ohio last season but he has since moved on, making way for his younger brother Kurtis, who is really more of a pocket passer and had mixed results in his starting debut last week. Dual-threat UNLV transfer Armani Rogers will continue to see playing time as well - I'm not a big fan of the two-headed QB system but it likely helps the Bobcats churn out some long, clock-churning drives in this one. After getting dominated in terms of time of possession in last week's loss, look for Ohio to flip the script and control this game from the opening kickoff. Akron scored 13 points in last week's blowout loss to Western Michigan. I believe it will be hard-pressed to reach that number again here. The Zips had one of the nation's worst offenses last year and there's little reason for optimism here in a unique 2020 campaign. While we may see Akron put together some lengthy drives against an Ohio defense that is by no means in midseason form (it didn't record a single sack last week), I don't expect it to end many of those drives with points on the board. To get 'over' this total I believe there would have to be solid contributions from both squads - I simply don't see that happening on Tuesday. Take the under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy Football Top Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-15-22 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
09-11-22 | Eagles v. Lions OVER 48.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 55 m | Show |
09-10-22 | Mississippi State v. Arizona OVER 58.5 | Top | 39-17 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 24 m | Show |
09-10-22 | Kentucky v. Florida UNDER 53 | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 103 h 31 m | Show |
09-10-22 | Memphis v. Navy OVER 51 | Top | 37-13 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 1 m | Show |
09-09-22 | Boise State v. New Mexico UNDER 45.5 | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 86 h 10 m | Show |
09-01-22 | Central Michigan v. Oklahoma State UNDER 60.5 | Top | 44-58 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 24 m | Show |
08-27-22 | Nevada v. New Mexico State UNDER 53.5 | Top | 23-12 | Win | 100 | 272 h 52 m | Show |
01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs UNDER 55 | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -105 | 130 h 17 m | Show |
01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans OVER 47 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -108 | 123 h 52 m | Show |
01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 50 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
01-09-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 44.5 | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
01-08-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | Top | 51-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
01-02-22 | Jaguars v. Patriots OVER 41 | Top | 10-50 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin OVER 41 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
12-29-21 | Iowa State v. Clemson OVER 44 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
12-27-21 | Dolphins v. Saints UNDER 37 | Top | 20-3 | Win | 102 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
12-26-21 | Jaguars v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans OVER 44 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas UNDER 55 | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts OVER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State OVER 51.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 52.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team OVER 48 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 45.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
12-03-21 | Holy Cross v. Villanova UNDER 49.5 | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
11-28-21 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 45.5 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
11-26-21 | UTEP v. UAB UNDER 50.5 | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 63 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
11-21-21 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings OVER 47 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
11-16-21 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
11-14-21 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 54.5 | Top | 3-43 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 21 m | Show |
11-12-21 | Wyoming v. Boise State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers OVER 39 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
11-07-21 | Vikings v. Ravens OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 39 m | Show |
11-06-21 | Houston v. South Florida OVER 52 | Top | 54-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College OVER 46.5 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -106 | 78 h 56 m | Show |
11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo UNDER 53.5 | Top | 52-49 | Loss | -113 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs UNDER 52 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts OVER 51 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 30 m | Show |
10-30-21 | Florida State v. Clemson OVER 47 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 46 | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 49 h 6 m | Show |
10-16-21 | BYU v. Baylor UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
10-16-21 | Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 51 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 52 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
10-14-21 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 55 | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 43 m | Show |
10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
10-10-21 | 49ers v. Cardinals OVER 48 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
10-09-21 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse UNDER 59 | Top | 40-37 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers UNDER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 46 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 17 m | Show |
09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 101 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Bills OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-43 | Win | 100 | 47 h 48 m | Show |
09-25-21 | Kentucky v. South Carolina UNDER 48.5 | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 80 h 46 m | Show |
09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 61.5 | Top | 35-70 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 17 m | Show |
09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia UNDER 67 | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 83 h 36 m | Show |
09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
09-18-21 | Cincinnati v. Indiana UNDER 50 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team UNDER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -103 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders OVER 50 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Jets v. Panthers OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-19 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 46.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss OVER 75 | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
09-04-21 | Indiana v. Iowa UNDER 45.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
08-28-21 | Hawaii v. UCLA UNDER 70.5 | Top | 10-44 | Win | 100 | 218 h 21 m | Show |
01-16-21 | Ravens v. Bills OVER 50 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -102 | 55 h 22 m | Show |
01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 42.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL UNDER 61.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers OVER 54 | Top | 14-40 | Push | 0 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
12-27-20 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 50 | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
12-26-20 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 54 | Top | 47-7 | Push | 0 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston UNDER 60.5 | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
12-20-20 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 47 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos OVER 49 | Top | 48-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
12-19-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State UNDER 58.5 | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
12-18-20 | UAB v. Marshall UNDER 42.5 | Top | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 57 h 11 m | Show |
12-12-20 | Wisconsin v. Iowa UNDER 42 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
12-10-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Southern Miss UNDER 44 | Top | 31-45 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
12-06-20 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 50.5 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -109 | 71 h 38 m | Show |
12-06-20 | Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47 | Top | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
12-03-20 | Air Force v. Utah State OVER 51 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
12-02-20 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 49 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
11-29-20 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
11-29-20 | Giants v. Bengals OVER 44 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
11-28-20 | Utah v. Washington UNDER 48 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
11-27-20 | Nebraska v. Iowa OVER 53 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
11-22-20 | Patriots v. Texans OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
11-15-20 | Broncos v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | Top | 12-37 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
11-10-20 | Akron v. Ohio UNDER 57 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |