Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-23-22 | TCU v. Texas UNDER 126.5 | 66-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Texas at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Texas' most recent game - a 61-55 loss at home against Texas Tech on Saturday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Longhorns look to bounce back against another in-state rival in TCU. As I noted in Saturday's analysis, Texas has done an incredible job playing defense at home this season, allowing only 19 made field goals including only five made threes per game, also sending opponents to the free throw line just 15 times per contest. TCU doesn't figure to be a team that will easily break down the Longhorns defense. When these two teams met back on January 25th at TCU, the Horned Frogs scored only 50 points, knocking down just 18 field goals including only two shots from beyond the arc. Were it not for 21 trips to the free throw line, that could have been a truly embarrassing offensive performance (it was already bad enough considering TCU lost by a score of 73-50). Texas actually got off an uncharacteristically-high 65 field goal attempts in that contest, helping boost their scoring output. Consider the Longhorns average just 55 FG attempts per game, 54 per contest here at home. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 8-2 with Texas coming off an ATS loss this season, resulting in an average total of only 116.2 points. Take the under (8*). |
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02-21-22 | Eastern Illinois v. SIU-Edwardsville UNDER 128 | 52-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Illinois and SIU-Edwardsville at 8 pm et on Monday. Eastern Illinois has been one of the best 'under' bets in the country this season, with 19 of its 26 lined games staying 'under' the total. Few teams play at a slower pace, as the Panthers rank 296th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). To compound matters, they rank a dreadful 357th in adjusted offensive efficiency. SIU-Edwardsville plays at a faster pace but doesn't fare much better offensively, ranking 327th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Both teams have had a penchant for turning the basketball over. In fact, Edwardsville turned it over 19 times in the first meeting between these two teams this season yet Eastern Illinois still only managed to score 53 points despite all of those extra possessions. On the road, we've seen the Panthers average just 19 made field goals including an average of only six from beyond the arc. That's not to mention only eight made free throws per road game. In a game where SIU-Edwardsville figures to control proceedings and perhaps take the air out of the basketball with a sizable lead in the second half, I'm comfortable playing the 'under', even at a lower number than we saw in the first meeting this season (that game totalled only 119 points). Take the under (7*). |
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02-21-22 | Liberty v. Central Arkansas OVER 150.5 | Top | 85-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Liberty and Central Arkansas at 8 pm et on Monday. Central Arkansas checks into this game off three consecutive 'under' results but remains one of the fastest-paced teams in the entire country, ranking 13th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. A look at its home conference games shows totals of 181, 177, 167, 188, 154, 148 and 159 points. Liberty is coming off a tougher-than-expected 88-82 win over Stetson on Saturday. The Flames don't play at nearly the same break-neck pace as Central Arkansas but as we saw on Saturday, they're certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard. That's thanks in large part to the fact that they knock down 11 three-pointers per game with not much of a drop-off in production at all on the road this season. Central Arkansas will certainly afford Liberty plenty of opportunities in this contest, noting that it yields 24 three-point attempts and 20 trips to the free throw line at home this season. It's worth noting that it has held three straight opponents to fewer than 80 points as it marks the first time that has happened all season. Don't count on the Bears accomplishing that feat for a fourth consecutive game on Monday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-19-22 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 126.5 | 61-55 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas Tech and Texas at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two in-state rivals totalled 141 points back on February 1st. I don't think the Longhorns want any part of a similar type of contest here, noting that they allowed 77 points in that lopsided loss. Keep in mind, this is a Texas team that gives up just a shade over 50 points per game at home this season, on a ridiculously-low 49 field goal attempts. Texas Tech can play some defense too, as we saw in its impressive home win over Baylor earlier this week. The Red Raiders have held the opposition to 38% shooting on the road this season. This is without a doubt a low total, but it's actually higher than the closing number we saw in the first meeting between these two this season. With injury doubts for the Red Raiders (Kevin McCullar could miss again), I believe they'll be comfortable getting involved in a slugfest here. Expect an NCAA Tournament-like atmosphere for this one. Take the under (9*). |
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02-16-22 | Baylor v. Texas Tech UNDER 137 | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Texas Tech at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off 80+ point performances in winning efforts on Saturday. I don't expect either side to sniff out that number on Wednesday, however. Those respective 'over' results snapped two-game 'under' streaks for both teams. They also served to give us a bit of a higher total to work than we might have otherwise seen here considering the first meeting between the Bears and Red Raiders this season saw a closing total of just 135.5 in a game that totalled only 127 points. Texas Tech pulled off a stunning 65-62 upset victory in that one, thanks in large part to shooting just shy of 51% from the field. It will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance here as Baylor has locked in defensively ever since that 83-59 loss in Kansas a week-and-a-half ago. Since then, the Bears have held Kansas State and Texas to 60 and 63 points, respectively, on a combined 41-of-115 (35.6%) shooting. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Texas Tech allowed more than 70 points. It has done a tremendous job on defense here at home this season, limiting the opposition to just 20-of-52 shooting on average while giving up just a shade over 58 points per game. In last year's meeting on this floor, Texas Tech held Baylor to just 68 points on 41.8% shooting but ultimately fell by a 68-60 score. Take the under (10*). |
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02-15-22 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green OVER 163 | 112-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Bowling Green at 7 pm et on Tuesday. While there are times the oddsmakers can't set the total low enough (case in point our play on the Virginia-Virginia Tech 'under' last night - a sub-120 total), there are also situations where the number simply can't be set high enough. The latter is the case here in my opinion. We won a big play on a Buffalo 'over' last week - a game that reached 166 points despite its extremely lopsided nature against Eastern Michigan (Buffalo won 102-64). Here, I'm anticipating a far more competitive affair for the Bulls, but ultimately a game that will be equally, if not even higher scoring. Buffalo has taken its aggressiveness on offense to a whole new level lately, hoisting up 70+ field goal attempts in three of its last five games. The only two contests were it didn't get off 70+ shots came in lopsided affairs at Ohio (a 21-point loss) and at home against Central Michigan (a 20-point win). Bowling Green can run and gun with the best of them. In fact, only four other teams in the country rank higher in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). We successfully faded the Falcons in their most recent game as they fell by a 92-78 score at Miami-Ohio on Saturday. They've had no interest in trying to limit opponents scoring opportunities here at home, allowing 74.6 points per game on an average of 64 field goal attempts per contest. Offensively, the Falcons have been hard to handle here on their home floor, hoisting up a whopping 68 field goal attempts per game, resulting in north of 87 points per contest. These two teams met back in January in Buffalo - a game that totalled 187 points. We didn't see anything particularly out of the ordinary in that game, perhaps other than Buffalo getting to the free throw line 35 times (and making 33 of those). Even if we do temper expectations on that front, we still have plenty of wiggle room with this total sitting in the low-160's (at the time of writing). Take the over (10*). |
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02-14-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas UNDER 143.5 | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Kansas at 9 pm et on Monday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 137 points in a game where both teams played faster than usual. We're dealing with a slightly lower total for this one than we saw in that previous encounter but I'm not sure enough of an adjustment has been made. It's unlikely Kansas is going to shoot better than it has over its last four games, incredibly knocking down better than 51% of its field goal attempts in each of those four contests. Oklahoma State is fresh off a strong offensive showing of its own, scoring 81 points on 48% shooting but that came at the expense of West Virginia at home. Lost in that strong offensive performance was the fact that the Cowboys held the Mountaineers to just 31.7% shooting. That marks the second time in the last three games that Oklahoma State has held the opposition to sub-40% from the field. Note that the 'under' is on a long-term 24-15 run in this particular series. Take the under (8*). |
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02-14-22 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech UNDER 119.5 | 53-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Virginia Tech at 7 pm et on Monday. At first glance, this looks like a pretty low total. In fact, it doesn't just look like a low total, it is. With that being said, it's warranted in my opinion. These two in-state rivals have met four times since the start of 2020 with those four games totalling 104, 109, 116 and 106 points with the latter result coming earlier this season. Both teams are rolling right now. The Cavaliers have won four in a row including a stunning upset win at Duke while the Hokies are winners of five straight games. The question will be which defense blinks first in this one as both are more than capable of stymieing the opposing offense. There have certainly been situations lately where the oddsmakers have gone a little too far in setting low totals in games involving these teams as Virginia has seen the 'over' cash in four of its last five games while Virginia Tech has posted a 6-2 o/u mark over its last eight. I don't expect that to be the case here as neither team gives an inch in this rivalry showdown. Take the under (7*). |
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02-13-22 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
CBB Mountain West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and Boise State at 4 pm et on Sunday. Boise State is one of the stingiest home teams in the country, allowing just 53 field goal attempts per game (17 from beyond the arc) while sending opponents to the free throw line only 14 times per game. Yet here the Broncos are, coming off four consecutive 'over' results, with their last two games being played right here in Boise. I believe that has helped push this total a little too high. Colorado State isn't going to overwhelm anyone with its pace. In fact, the Rams play at an almost identical tempo to that of the Broncos. While they do average 73 points per game away from home, I don't see them coming close to that number against a Boise State defense that allows less than 60 points per game here at home. The Rams are fresh off a game that totalled just 115 points in a lopsided victory over Fresno State. They actually check in having shot 51% or better from the field in consecutive games but again, I don't see them approaching that level of success here. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with Colorado State involved in a game with a total set between 130 and 139.5 points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-22 | Stony Brook v. Maine UNDER 139.5 | Top | 85-74 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
CBB America East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Stony Brook and Maine at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 152 points but that's been far from the norm in this series with the last 10 matchups averaging a total of just 130 points. Stony Brook enters this game off a wild 87-85 win over UMass-Lowell - also not the norm for the Seawolves this season, noting that their previous three contests had all stayed 'under' the total. Stony Brook has had a bit of a difficult time controlling opponents' tempo on the road but shouldn't have such trouble here against a Maine squad that doesn't tend to get out and run here at home, averaging 56 field goal attempts per game (20 from three-point range) and gets to the free throw line an average of just 14 times per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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02-12-22 | Dartmouth v. Princeton OVER 139.5 | 40-85 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Princeton at 4 pm et on Saturday. Dartmouth has a tendency to yield to whatever tempo its opponent chooses to set, as we saw in the previous meeting between these two teams this season - a game that Princeton won by an 84-80 score. In this case, I'm confident we'll see the Tigers continue to push the pace, just as they have in their last four games, hoisting up 67, 64, 65 and 68 field goal attempts. Dartmouth got off 62 field goal attempts but couldn't make the most of them in a 62-60 loss at Brown last time out. Note that the Big Green have scored fairly consistently on the Ivy League road this season, racking up 71, 68, 76, 69 and 60 points in five conference road tilts. Princeton hasn't been held to fewer than 72 points since way back on November 24th at Monmouth. The Tigers have been ultra-efficient at the offensive end of the floor here at home this season, shooting better than 50% from the field and knocking down 11-of-28 three-point attempts per contest. With Dartmouth playing its fourth straight game away from home, it will need to push the pace itself in order to keep up. The good news is, the Big Green have actually shot better from beyond the arc on the road this season, knocking down an average of 10 triples per game. Take the over (9*). |
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02-09-22 | High Point v. Presbyterian UNDER 128 | Top | 79-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Big South Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between High Point and Presbyterian at 7 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams are coming off very different results last time out as High Point outlasted UNC-Asheville by a 91-83 score in overtime while Presbyterian fell by a 74-69 score at Hampton. That most recent game was at home for High Point. It has struggled mightily on the road, winning just once in 10 tries. Presbyterian has proven to be a very frustrating team to play against, particularly on this floor, where it has held opponents to just 50 field goal attempts per game. For its part, High Point has had a tough time getting into any sort of rhythm on the road, getting off just 51 field goal attempts per contest. The Panthers also get to the free throw line five times less than their season average away from home. With all of that being said, High Point has also done a nice job of controlling the tempo on the road, giving up just 51 field goal attempts per game. In other words, I'm not expecting a free-flowing affair here. Presbyterian is actually coming off consecutive 'over' results - the first time we've seen that since December 6th and 12th. High Point's most recent game also found its way 'over' the total. We haven't seen consecutive games involving the Panthers go 'over' the total since December 29th and 31st with those two games coming against Michigan State and Kentucky (High Point allowed 81 and 92 points in those two games). Presbyterian has allowed just 57.7 points per game when playing at home off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons (six-game sample size), as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-6 with High Point having lost two of its last three games over the last two seasons (22-game sample size). Take the under (10*). |
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02-08-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo OVER 148.5 | Top | 64-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
CBB MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Michigan and Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Buffalo enters this game off consecutive 'under' results. I expect that streak to be short-lived, however. No team has struggled more to control tempo (perhaps I should word that another way given the Bulls actually prefer to play at a fast pace), as Buffalo has allowed opponents to get off an incredible 68 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. Not surprisingly, Bulls home games have averaged north of 149 points per contest. Eastern Michigan doesn't operate at a blazing fast pace but it has picked it up after a couple of dismal campaigns, averaging just over 71 points per game this season. The Eagles are going to have to keep pace with the Bulls if they want to snap their current three-game skid on Tuesday. Note that Eastern Michigan has been held to 71 points or less in three straight games but this is a team that has scored 90+ points on three previous occasions this season and an arguably worse Eagles squad did manage to score 77 points (in a game that totalled 169) points in last year's meeting here in Buffalo. As I mentioned, the Bulls are coming off consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs. Keep in mind, the first of those two games came against one of the MAC's better teams in Ohio and the other against one of the conference's worst squads in Central Michigan. I look for a big bust-out performance from the Buffalo offense, noting that it averages just shy of 80 points per game at home this season, where it averages 28 three-point attempts per game (two more than its season average) and gets to the free throw line an average of 22 times per contest (four above its season average). EMU has allowed 80+ points in four of its last five games and has given up 90 or more points on three previous occasions this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 with Eastern Michigan coming off consecutive double-digit losses against conference opponents over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 150.9 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-07-22 | NC-Wilmington v. Hofstra OVER 145 | Top | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between N.C. Wilmington and Hofstra at 5 pm et on Monday. This will be the second meeting between these two teams in as many weeks after Wilmington prevailed by a 78-72 score at home on January 29th. The Seahawks are the surprising leaders in the CAA right now with head coach Takayo Siddle squeezing every last drop out of the talent he has at hand. As expected, Wilmington is playing fast and comes into this game off a 92-point explosion against William and Mary last time out. Of course, going up-tempo plays right into the hands of Hofstra, which checks in ranked 112th in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). Aaron Estrada has absolutely gone off for the Pride, most recently pouring in 35 points in Saturday's overtime win over James Madison. The Pride have scored 70+ points in six of their last seven games and come into this one on the heels of three straight 'over' results. Note that in that first meeting with Wilmington, the Pride knocked down only three of 18 three-point attempts. Considering they shoot 10-of-28 from beyond the arc here at home, I would expect a vast improvement over that performance here. Note that the Seahawks have held just one conference opponent to fewer than 70 points on the road this season, that being a highly-disappointing Northeastern squad in a game that still found its way 'over' the total. The 'over' has cashed in five of Wilmington's last seven games overall. Note that the second meeting between these two teams has been higher scoring than the first in each of the last three years in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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02-05-22 | UNLV v. Utah State UNDER 139 | 75-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and Utah State at 6 pm et on Saturday. Utah State got off an uncharacteristically-high 67 field goal attempts in its most recent game - a 78-62 rout of lowly San Jose State on Thursday. Off that 'over' result, we'll go the other way and back the 'under' on Saturday, noting that the 'under' has cashed on both occasions that situation has come up in conference play involving the Aggies this season. Utah State enters this game having scored 70+ points in four straight games. While UNLV isn't known for its defense, it has actually held opponents to a slightly slower pace on the road compared to at home this season, giving up fewer field goal and free throw attempts per game. The Rebels don't play at a particularly fast pace themselves, checking in 181st in the nation in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). They've gotten off 60+ field goal attempts in four of nine Mountain West games this season but scored more than 55 points in just two of those contests, with those coming against two of the conference's weakest teams in New Mexico and San Jose State. Utah State has not surprisingly done a terrific job of defending here at home this season, holding opponents to just 18 three-point attempts per game (five below their season average allowed) and 15 free throw attempts per contest. Note that the 'under' is 15-6 with Utah State coming off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 132.5 points. Take the under (9*). |
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02-05-22 | Sacred Heart v. St Francis NY OVER 142.5 | Top | 66-62 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Sacred Heart and St. Francis (NY) at 4 pm et on Saturday. This is a rematch of a game between these two teams on January 27th. St. Francis took that meeting by a 71-66 score in a game that stayed 'under' the closing total. As a result we're dealing with a slightly lower total here, but I'm not sure the move is warranted. That game was played at a relatively slow pace with both teams hoisting up sub-60 field goal attempts and a combined 26 trips to the free throw line. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Sacred Heart hasn't had a hope of slowing down opponents on the road, particularly of late. It has yielded 62, 69, 63 and 65 field goal attempts in four road games since New Year's Eve and while St. Francis (NY) doesn't play at all that quick of a pace, it does play considerably faster at home and I expect it to be afforded plenty of good looks in this one. Note that opponents are shooting a ridiculous 49.3% against Sacred Heart in its road games this season, where it allows just shy of 80 points per game. I do think that Sacred Heart can stay competitive in this one, however. It shot a miserable 5-of-16 from beyond the arc in that first meeting this season but that could be considered an anomaly as the Pioneers average nine made threes per game on the season, with that average holding steady on the road. Noting that St. Francis sends opponents to the free throw line 19 times per game on average, I would also anticipate Sacred Heart improving on its 10 free throw attempts in the first matchup. When these two teams last played on this floor last February they combined to score 170 points in a wild 88-82 Sacred Heart victory. That was the back half of a two-game set with the front-end resulting in 164 total points. Noting that both teams bring plenty of returning experience to the table, I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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02-04-22 | Princeton v. Cornell OVER 157.5 | Top | 83-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
CBB Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Princeton and Cornell at 7 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams this season stayed comfortably 'under' the total as Princeton prevailed by a 72-70 score at home. There were some notable takeaways from that game. Cornell got all the looks it wanted but simply couldn't knock down enough shots, noting that it shot 43% from the field on 62 attempts. It's worth mentioning that the Big Red were playing their second game in as many days on that occasion. Here, we'll see a rested Big Red bunch having not played since last Sunday (in typical Ivy League scheduling). As further illustration to how many points Cornell left on the table in that first meeting, it made just 9-of-26 three-point attempts and got to the free throw line an uncharacteristically-low nine times (but did make nine of those freebies). The Big Red check in an impressive seventh in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and will certainly look to dictate the pace against a very beatable Princeton defense here. On the flip side, the Tigers should be more than happy to be along for the ride in a potential track meet, noting that they've scored 70+ points in 13 consecutive games. This isn't the same fundamentally-sound Princeton defense we've been accustomed to seeing, however, as it has allowed 80, 76, 81, 73 and 80 points in five road games this season. The fact that the Tigers baited a slow Dartmouth squad (334th in adjusted tempo) into a game that totalled 164 points in their most recent road game is telling. Princeton is more than capable of shooting the lights out and I suspect it will be even more set on pushing the pace after Cornell was seemingly the more aggressive offensive side in the last meeting. It's worth noting that the Tigers were without sharp-shooter Jaelin Llewellyn in the first meeting, which certainly hampered their offense. He knocked down six threes in Princeton's most recent game - an 80-74 loss to Yale last Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-22 | UCLA v. Arizona OVER 146.5 | Top | 66-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Arizona at 8 pm et on Thursday. We saw a closing total north of 150 points in the first matchup between these two teams last week. That game ultimately fizzled with just 134 points as UCLA rolled to a double-digit victory. The Wildcats followed up that loss with another unimpressive offensive showing, albeit in a double-digit win of their own over Arizona State, scoring just 67 points on 32% shooting. Keep in mind, Arizona still ranks second in the nation in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency (both according to KenPom). I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Wildcats offense in this one. UCLA hasn't posted monster offensive numbers away from home, but that's had a lot to do with the opposition they've faced. The Bruins simply haven't had to ramp it up offensively in order to secure road victories. Again, I expect a different story to unfold here. While the Bruins defense has been terrific, it also checks in 17th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Here, we'll note that Arizona has averaged 82.1 points per game when coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games totalling an average of 148.2 points (16-game sample size). The fact that Arizona shot just 30% on a whopping 75 field goal attempts in the last meeting indicates plenty of points were left on the table in that one. Also note that the game featured a grand total of just 16 free throw attempts. Noting that last year's meeting in Tucson totalled 157 points, I'm quite comfortable playing the 'over' in this rematch. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-22 | Western Illinois v. Oral Roberts OVER 161.5 | Top | 90-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
CBB Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Western Illinois and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Thursday. I don't expect either of these teams to pump the breaks one bit in this rematch of a wild 87-86 Oral Roberts victory in January. We're talking about two teams that rank well inside the nation's top-50 in terms of adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) with neither boasting a great deal of defensive prowess. Western Illinois scored 'only' 75 points in a disappointing home loss against UMKC last time out. The Leathernecks left plenty of points on the table in that game as they turned the ball over 15 times and shot just 44% from the field. That marked the second time in their last four games that they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 56% from the field. Oral Roberts is coming off a two-game road trip that saw it score 100 and 89 points in wins over Nebraska-Omaha and Denver. While Western Illinois will pose a more difficult challenge, the Golden Eagles should be up for it. They average an incredible 87.7 points per game at home this season. That's on the strength of 13-of-31 shooting from beyond the arc. You could argue that Western Illinois was fortunate to only lose by a single point in the first meeting between these two teams this season as ORU knocked down just nine three-pointers in the game. Speaking of that contest, Western Illinois shot a woeful 40% from the field but isn't likely to shy away from pushing the pace again here, noting that it did get plenty of good looks on 64 field goal attempts, not to mention 30 free throws in that narrow loss. While this total has been adjusted by a couple of points, I don't believe it will be enough. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-22 | Binghamton v. Stony Brook OVER 141 | 77-61 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Binghamton and Stony Brook at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We saw 145 total points in the first meeting between these two teams this season, a game that was closer than expected with Stony Brook going on the road and winning by a 74-71 score. Stony Brook left a ton of points on the table in that game as it shot a miserable 34% from the field, knocking down only five three-pointers. Binghamton essentially bailed the Seawolves out, sending them to the free throw line a whopping 34 times. I'm confident we'll see Stony Brook stay aggressively offensively and this time around, absolutely go off against a Binghamton squad that generally doesn't play a lick of defense, ranking 268th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom). Note that Stony Brook ranks 114th in the country in adjusted tempo and should relish the opportunity to get loose after facing a tough three-game stretch that included matchups against Albany, Vermont and New Hampshire. The Seawolves are averaging just shy of 75 points per game, getting off 63 field goal attempts per contest here at home this season. On the flip side, I do think Binghamton can be along for the ride offensively here. It's certainly worth noting that the oddsmakers are anticipating another reasonably competitive affair with the spread holding steady in single-digits. Stony Brook, while one of the America East's elite teams, ranks 291st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Binghamton averages over 72 points per game the last six times it plays on the road off a conference loss, as is the case here. It should be able to get off plenty of scoring opportunities here against a Stony Brook squad that despite forcing an average of 14 turnovers per game here at home, still gives up 60 field goal attempts per contest on average. Take the over (8*). |
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02-01-22 | Providence v. St. John's OVER 146 | 86-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Providence and St. John's at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I expected this total to get bet up considerably in the morning hours on Tuesday but that simply hasn't been the case. Noting that the first meeting totalled 156 points earlier this season - with a load of points left on the table - I'm comfortable playing the 'over' in Tuesday's rematch. The Friars are coming off consecutive 'under' results while the Red Storm have seen each of their last three contests stay 'under' the total. That serves to give us some value with the 'over' on Tuesday. Note that St. John's still ranks top-four in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The Red Storm will certainly look to run the Friars out of the gym in this one with Providence playing on just one day of rest after successfully avenging an earlier loss against Marquette. In that first matchup between these two teams this season St. John's shot just north of 41% from the field, including 5-of-22 from beyond the arc. It also missed nine of 17 free throw attempts. The Friars hung 83 points on the board despite shooting just 3-of-16 from three-point range. Note that the Red Storm are allowing an average of nine made threes per game here at home this season, not to mention the fact they send opponents to the free throw line an average of 20 times per contest (Providence gets to the charity stripe 21 times per game and shoots better than 73% from there). Take the over (9*). |
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01-31-22 | New Mexico v. San Diego State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 47-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Mexico and San Diego State at 10 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a lower-scoring game than most in this Mountain West matchup on Monday night as San Diego State looks to bounce back from a disappointing lopsided loss at Utah State. That game was played last Wednesday night so the Aztecs have had five days to chew on it and I expect them to come out with plenty of fire as a result on Monday. Whether that fire leads to offensive success is up for debate but I'm confident the Aztecs will put their best foot forward defensively. Note that off its four previous losses this season, San Diego State allowed just 63, 47, 56 and 55 points in its next game with the 'under' going a profitable 3-1. The only game that didn't stay 'under' the total still reached just 135 points. Given how well New Mexico has been playing (7-1-1 ATS over its last nine games) I don't expect it to let San Diego State run up the score here. The Lobos are by no means an elite defensive team, but they're a confident bunch right now and I do feel they can handle San Diego State's very manageable pace. Note that the Aztecs average just a shade over 67 points per game at home this season and 70.8 points per game when coming off a loss. The Aztecs did score 80 points on 52% shooting in a win over UNLV in their most recent home game, but they're also just two games removed from an ugly 37-point on 28% shooting performance against Boise State on this same floor. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 with San Diego State priced as a home favorite of between -12.5 and -15 points over the last three seasons with those games totalling an average of just 125.5 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-31-22 | Eastern Washington v. Weber State OVER 156 | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Washington and Weber State at 9 pm et on Monday. If Eastern Washington wants to snap out of its two-game mini slide, it's going to have to keep up with one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation in Weber State on Monday. The Wildcats enter this game as hot as any team in the country shooting the basketball, knocking down 55%, 52%, 50% and 58% of their FG attempts while scoring 95, 92, 85 and 79 points over their last four games. While they 'only' got to 79 in their most recent contest that was only due to the lopsided nature of their win over Sacramento State. I do expect Eastern Washington to pose more of a challenge here. The Eagles opened their current road trip with an 89-point explosion at Idaho State but then got bogged down in a pair of games against Montana State and Montana. After shooting sub-39% in consecutive contests I look for the Eagles to get back on track here. They can run with the best of them, ranking 43rd in the country in adjusted tempo. Take the over (9*). |
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01-29-22 | Eastern Kentucky v. Stetson OVER 139.5 | Top | 95-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Atlantic Sun Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Kentucky and Stetson at 4 pm et on Saturday. There's a lot of upside playing this one 'over' the total with the number sitting in the high-130's. We'll certainly see a contrast in styles here as Eastern Kentucky ranks top-25 in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Stetson sits well north of 300th in that category. With that being said, Stetson is just two games removed from a 91-point performance in a narrow two-point home loss against Florida-Gulf Coast. There's reason to believe we'll see Stetson push the pace a little more than usual here after it was held to just 47 points on 28% shooting last time out against Bellarmine. Despite its break-neck place, Eastern Kentucky hasn't posted an 'over' result since the first week of December. Keep in mind, it has regularly seen totals posted in the 150's and 160's. We're dealing with a much lower total here. Stetson has high hopes this season after appearing in the CBI Tournament last April and returning a wealth of talent. Rob Perry being sidelined hasn't helped its cause but in theory there is plenty of depth - particularly at the guard position - to make up for his absence. Regardless, I believe the Hatters will be afforded plenty of good looks against a 'defense-optional' Eastern Kentucky squad here as both teams do their part in helping this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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01-27-22 | California v. UCLA UNDER 130 | Top | 57-81 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between California and UCLA at 9 pm et on Thursday. Cal is coming off a dreadful performance against Arizona in which it was ripped for 96 points. That could be considered an outlier, however, as the Bears had only allowed more than 65 points once in five previous Pac-12 contests this season. UCLA came up with a stunning 16-point upset win over Arizona two nights ago which obviously sets it up in a bit of a letdown spot here. The Bruins are locked in defensively right now, allowing 65, 58, 65 and 59 points over their last four contests. Since the start of 2020, they've held Cal to 40, 56, 57 and 52 points with the latter coming in a 60-52 victory earlier this month. With both teams adept at taking care of the basketball, I look for much of this one to be played in the half-court, much like we saw in the first meeting between these two squads this season. Take the under (10*). |
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01-27-22 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska OVER 145 | Top | 73-65 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
CBB Big Ten Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Wisconsin and Nebraska at 5 pm et on Thursday. I don't believe for a second that Nebraska's defense can contain Wisconsin's offense in this game. The Badgers, more often known for their patient, methodical offense have shifted into another gear this season. They check in averaging well north of 70 points per game and come into this game in a foul mood after dropping an 86-74 decision against Michigan State last time out. This is an ideal bounce-back spot as the Cornhuskers don't play a lick of defense, allowing 87, 79, 93, 81, 92 and 78 points over their last six games with the 'over' cashing at a 5-1 clip along the way. Desperate for a victory off six consecutive losses, I'm confident we'll see Nebraska throw everything it has at the Badgers defense in this one. We've certainly seen cracks in that Badger defense as they've given up a very un-Wisconsin-like 43.9% shooting on the season. The Huskers should find their opportunities, noting that they rank 21st in the nation in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Last year's two meetings between these two teams were low-scoring. Different story here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-26-22 | Marquette v. Seton Hall OVER 145.5 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
CBB Big East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Marquette and Seton Hall at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams just met on January 15th. That game totalled 145 points, staying comfortably below the closing total of 152.5 points. Now that both teams come in riding three-game 'under' streaks, I believe this total has swung too far in the other direction. Note that in that previous meeting Seton Hall scored 72 points despite turning the basketball over a whopping 20 times. The Pirates average only 12 turnovers per game (despite ranking 53rd in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom). I expect a far more efficient offensive performance from Seton Hall here, especially after shooting sub-40% from the field in consecutive games. As for Marquette, it ranks 42nd in the country in adjusted tempo and is playing its best basketball of the season, reeling off six straight wins both SU and ATS. The Golden Eagles scored 75 points in a win over Xavier last time out but that's really only scratching the surface offensively as they started their current win streak by scoring 88, 92 and 87 points in consecutive games. After holding their last two opponents under 39% shooting, I look for some regression from the Golden Eagles defense here, noting that they've allowed 89 points at Wisconsin and 80 points at Xavier earlier this season. Take the over (10*). |
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01-24-22 | Louisville v. Virginia UNDER 124.5 | Top | 52-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. I love the way this one sets up as a prime bounce-back spot for both defenses. Louisville just gave up 82 points on a ridiculous 63% shooting in a loss to Notre Dame on Saturday, marking its fourth loss in its last five games. There's no reason to expect a repeat performance here as the Cardinals look to contain a Virginia team that hasn't sniffed 70 points over its last five games, topping out at 66 points and scoring sub-60 in three of those contests. For its part, Virginia allowed N.C. State to score 77 points on 60% shooting in a loss on Saturday. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Cavaliers last two games. That situation has come up three times previously this season, and on each occasion the 'under' has cashed in the next game. We know the Hoos' can play defense. Here at home they're allowing just 57.5 points per game on 40.6% shooting. The Cardinals don't figure to be able to expose any sort of weaknesses, noting that they average right around three points below their season scoring average on the road, where they shoot just a shade over 40% from the field. The last time these two teams met on this floor they combined to score just 111 points. Expect more of the same on Monday. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-22 | Northwestern v. Ohio State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 87-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
CBB Big Ten Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern and Ohio State at 5:30 pm et on Sunday. I expect points to come at a premium in this Big Ten matchup with Northwestern coming off consecutive home losses in-conference and Ohio State fresh off a 16-point dismantling at the hands of Indiana on the road. Note that the Buckeyes have turned in two of their best defensive efforts of the season when coming off their two previous losses this season, holding Duke to 38.5% shooting following a loss to Florida and Seton Hall to 38.1% shooting after a loss against Xavier. Note that Ohio State checks in 49th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Northwestern has given up 70+ points in consecutive games for the first time this season but still ranks top-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I don't expect Ohio State to run away and hide in this one, noting that the Buckeyes sit 249th in the country in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). While Northwestern generally likes to push the pace a little bit, I'm not sure it will be afforded the opportunity to do so against the Buckeyes. The Wildcats have been able to force the tempo in large part thanks to facing the nation's 265th toughest schedule. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Wildcats have played on the road following an 'over' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 126.3 points. The 'under' is also a long-term winner at 89-60 with the Buckeyes playing at home coming off an ATS loss, which is also the situation here, producing an average total of 133.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-02-22 | Michigan State v. Northwestern UNDER 139.5 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan State and Northwestern at 2 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams have been filling up boxscores in the early going this season with Michigan State checking in with an 11-2 record and Northwestern sitting at 8-2. With both teams averaging just shy of 80 points per game I can understand why we're looking at a total in the high-130s on Sunday. I believe it will prove too high, however. This will be the toughest test either team has faced in the last month. I don't think we're going to see Michigan allow Northwestern to get out and push the pace as much as it would like in this home matchup. I do, however, believe that the Wildcats will be able to run their offense, noting that they're turning the ball over only nine times per game while Michigan State has forced just 11 turnovers per contest. While both teams have shot well, neither has put up over-the-top numbers in terms of three-pointers of free throws made per game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 17-6 the last 23 times the Spartans have played on the road after scoring 75+ points in four straight games, as is the case here. Northwestern has had a tendency to struggle in these January Big Ten home games, averaging just 62 points per game while going 0-7 ATS in its last seven home tilts in the first month of the year. Take the under (10*). |
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12-28-21 | Northwestern State v. Baylor UNDER 146 | Top | 68-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern State and Baylor at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are anticipating on Tuesday night. Northwestern State has faced an extremely tough schedule so far this season - the seventh-toughest in the country according to KenPom. It faces another very tough matchup on the road against defending national champion Baylor on Tuesday. I expect it to once again struggle offensively, noting that it checks in averaging just six made three-pointers and 13 free throw attempts per game this season. Baylor meanwhile allows an average of only five made threes per game at home while sending opponents to the free throw line just 13 times per game on average. The question becomes whether Baylor goes off offensively in this one. It scored 94 points in its most recent game against Alcorn State. Prior to that it had scored fewer than 80 points in five of its last six games. Note that the Bears average nine made threes per game and should approach that average here. However, they also average only 10 made free throws per contest. Despite facing a difficult schedule, Northwestern State has managed to force an average of 12 turnovers per game while Baylor has turned it over 10 or more times in six consecutive games heading into this one. Take the under (10*). |
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12-18-21 | Northern Colorado v. Washington State OVER 141 | 56-82 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Northern Colorado and Washington State at 4 pm et on Saturday. The 'over' has now cashed in six straight games involving Northern Colorado while Washington State has seen the 'under' cash in five of its last six contests. I expect the former to prevail on Saturday as the Bears and Cougars do battle in Pullman. Both defenses may be in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' in this one as the two offenses live beyond the three-point line where Northern Colorado averages 26 attempts per game (and makes 10 of them on average) and Washington State puts up 25 per contest (making nine on average). Note that Northern Colorado has faced an average of 19 three-point shots per game while Washington State checks in at 20. Both teams have been terrific at getting to the free throw line and knocking their shots down when they do, noting that Washington in particular averages 21 free throws per game, making good on better than 75% of them. Washington State checks in having averaged over 64 field goal attempts per game over its last three and I don't think Northern Colorado will shy away from running with the Cougars here. Note that the Bears have shot better than 44% from the field in six straight games. Despite attempting fewer than 60 shots in each of their last three games they still managed to score 78, 74 and 76 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-17-21 | St. Mary's v. San Diego State UNDER 119 | 53-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Mary's and San Diego State at 10 pm et on Friday. Now that this total has bumped back up a couple of points, we'll step in with a play on the 'under'. Needless to say, both teams have trended to the 'under' so far this season. St. Mary's has allowed just four of 12 opponents to score 60+ points. San Diego State has held four of its last five opponents to 58 points or less. Neither team has been adept from beyond the three-point line with St. Mary's averaging seven made threes per game but only five per game away from home. San Diego State averages just five made three-pointers per contest. While San Diego State does get to the free throw line 20 times per game, they might struggle to approach that average here given St. Mary's has been one of the most disciplined defensive teams in the country, giving up just 13 free throw attempts per contest. When these two teams met last season they combined to score 123 points. That was a 74-49 rout in favor of San Diego State. In what should be a far more competitive affair this time around and I'm anticipating a low-scoring contest. Take the under (8*). |
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12-16-21 | Dartmouth v. Stanford UNDER 131.5 | 78-89 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dartmouth and Stanford at 10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams enter this game trending strongly to the 'over' with Dartmouth's last four games going 'over' the total and Stanford's last three doing the same. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. Dartmouth has been heavily reliant on the three-ball, knocking down an average of 10 made threes per game this season. It would be reasonable to question where the scoring will come from on Thursday, however, as the Big Green face a Stanford squad that boasts a ton of length on the perimeter and won't give up many easy looks. As a team, Dartmouth has shot just 42.8% from the field against opponents that allow an average of 45.8% shooting this season. On a positive note for Dartmouth, it is sending opponents to the free throw line only 15 times per game and while it has allowed a disappointing nine made threes per contest, Stanford doesn't figure to abuse it on the perimeter, noting that the Cardinal are averaging only six made threes per contest. Stanford has played a very disciplined brand of defense, allowing just 13 free throw attempts per game and here will face a Big Green squad that gets to the line only 10 times per contest. In what doesn't figure to be an ultra-competitive game with a whole lot of late fouling, I'm comfortable calling for this one to stay 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
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12-15-21 | Middle Tennessee v. Ole Miss OVER 133.5 | 52-62 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Middle Tennessee State and Ole Miss at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair between the Blue Raiders and Rebels on Wednesday night. Middle Tennessee State is off to a terrific 8-2 start to the season. It should represent a bit of a shock to the system for the Ole Miss defense, noting that the Blue Raiders hoist up 26 three-point attempts per game and get to the free throw line an impressive 22 times per contest - a stark contrast to the type of teams the Rebels have faced so far this season (they've faced just 19 three-point attempts per game with opponents getting to the charity stripe 18 times per contest). The Rebels will certainly look to come out aggressive on offense after being held to a woeful 48 points in a blowout loss to underdog Western Kentucky on Saturday (we won with the Hilltoppers in that game). Perhaps Saturday's poor offensive performance could be considered an aberration as the Rebels were playing for the first time in a week. Note that they average 78 points per game on just shy of 45% shooting at home this season. In three previous road games, the Blue Raiders have given up nine made three-pointers per game while sending opponents to the free throw line a whopping 25 times per contest. Take the over (10*). |
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12-15-21 | Chattanooga v. Belmont UNDER 141 | 68-76 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chattanooga and Belmont at 6 pm et on Wednesday. This has the potential to be one of Wednesday's best games on the college hoops board and I'm confident we'll see it say 'under' the inflated total. Chattanooga hasn't faced the toughest schedule but it has taken care of business nonetheless, going 9-1 so far. The Mocs are doing an excellent job of holding down opposing offenses, limiting them to just 13 free throw attempts and six made three-pointers per game. They've also been able to run their offense more often than not, turning the basketball over just 10 times per contest. That's all while limiting opponents to just north of 38% shooting. Belmont is of course an elite team we'll likely be seeing plenty of come March. The Bruins have limited opponents to just 14 free throw attempts and have been a defensive force at home where they've held the opposition to 40.5% shooting and forced a whopping 19 turnovers per game. The 'under' has cashed in six of Belmont's last seven games overall and I see that trend continuing here. Take the under (8*). |
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12-13-21 | Rhode Island v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 131.5 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Rhode Island and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 8 pm et on Monday. We won with Wisconsin-Milwaukee in its most recent game as it stayed inside the double-digit pointspread on the road against Pac-12 squad Colorado. Here, I'll call for another relatively low-scoring affair (that loss to Colorado totalled just 119 points) as the Panthers host Rhode Island on Monday. The Rams have seen the 'under' cash in three consecutive games. Interestingly, the Rams are attempting only 15 three-pointers per game and I don't anticipate shifting course here on Monday. What they have done is do an excellent job of getting to the free throw line, doing so 20 times per game. Here, though, they'll face a Wisconsin-Milwaukee squad that has done a good job of limiting opponents' attempts from the charity stripe, giving up just 15 per game. That's not to mention the fact that the Panthers are allowing opponents to shoot just 39.2% from the field. They haven't guarded the perimeter particularly well, but again they'll be facing a Rams squad that tends to operate lower in the half court. I don't anticipate either team looking to push the pace too much in this one, instead look for both sides to look to run their offense, ultimately eating clock and helping the final score stay 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-11-21 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State UNDER 136.5 | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Ohio State at 12 noon et on Saturday. We should be in for an old-fashioned Big 10 slugfest as the Badgers and Buckeyes do battle in early action on Saturday. Wisconsin has gone back to its roots, playing exceptional defensive basketball while limiting its opponents possessions severely. Employing that style should give the Badgers their best shot at staging an upset win over Ohio State on Saturday as well. We did see Wisconsin get involved in a relatively high-scoring affair against Marquette just two games back. It was right back to business last time out, however, in a hard-fought 64-59 win over Indiana. Note that the most recent matchup between these two teams produced 'only' 136 points last January. Ohio State is coming off a high-scoring 85-74 win over Towson. The Buckeyes still check in ranked 255th in the nation in points per game - that's despite sitting top-30 in the country in field goal percentage. By contrast, the Badgers sit north of 300th in both points per game and field goal percentage. Take the under (9*). |
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12-06-21 | Mercer v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 139.5 | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mercer and Coastal Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday. Mercer enters this game off three consecutive wins, scoring 88, 73 and 83 points in the process but I expect the Bears to have some difficulty scoring against a stout Coastal Carolina zone defense on Monday night. The Chanticleers have held their last two opponents to 41-for-124 shooting and have yet to allow an opponent shoot better than 43.7% from the floor this season. Mercer isn't a team that plays exceptionally fast. For the Bears to stay competitive in this game they'll need to get back defensively in transition and force Coastal Carolina to operate its offense in the halfcourt. The Chanticleers are coming off two of their three highest-scoring performances of the season over their last two games. Those efforts came in a game against South Carolina where the Gamecocks essentially folded the tent in the second half and a contest against Winthrop that saw a closing total north of 150 points. Take the under (8*). |
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12-03-21 | Fairfield v. Canisius OVER 141.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Fairfield and Canisius at 7 pm et on Friday. We've made just one play involving either of these teams this season and it was on the 'under' in Fairfield's 83-78 win over Stony Brook last week. In case you were wondering, we weren't close on that play as the final score eclipsed the total by 17 points. I won't make the same mistake again here. Fairfield's offense wasn't good last season but with virtually the entire squad returning there was plenty of potential entering the 2021-22 campaign. So far so good, as the Stags have scored 70+ points in five of six games and check in shooting 47.5% from the field and 37.6% from three-point range. They don't figure to face much resistance against Canisius as the Golden Griffins have allowed the opposition to shoot just shy of 47% from the field and may face a bit of a system shock here as the Stags average seven more three-point attempts than what they've faced so far this season. The fact that Canisius managed to score 75 points despite shooting sub 38% from the field against Cornell last time out is telling. The Griffins are playing at a fast pace, hoisting up a whopping 65 field goal attempts per game including 32 from three-point range. There's reason to believe they can go off offensively in this one against a Fairfield squad that has allowed anyone with a pulse to shoot 50% or better this season. This has the makings of a big game for super sixth-man Malek Green of Canisius. He's still working his way back to 100% health after foot surgery last season. He's averaging 16.6 points per game in just over 24 minutes per game this season and with the Griffins having not played since Sunday should see plenty of action in this one. Key cog Armon Harried shot a miserable 1-for-10 from the field against Cornell but should bounce back here. He's just one game removed from a 22-point effort against Coppin State. Virtually all trends point to an 'under' result here but I'm confident enough that both teams have made enough progression offensively that we could be in for a track meet on Friday night. With both projected to finish in the bottom half of the MAAC standings they can certainly use all the wins they can get - make no mistake, this is an important conference opener for both teams. I expect both to come in with an aggressive mentality, knowing they'll likely need to put up 70+ points to prevail. While the last meeting between these teams totaled only 119 points, it featured just seven made three-pointers. The two teams are combining to average 20 made threes per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-26-21 | Oklahoma State v. Oral Roberts OVER 148 | Top | 78-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma State and Oral Roberts at 4 pm et on Friday. You might be hard-pressed to find a worse defensive team than Oral Roberts at this given moment in time. In two games against Division-I opponents, it ranks 343rd in the country in opponents floor percentage. Outside of that it has faced a laundry list of no-name schools to put it mildly. Now it has to contend with a red hot Oklahoma State squad that has hung 80+ points on it in each of the last two meetings over the last two years and checks in off a 96-point effort against Charleston. Oral Roberts knows it is going to have to light up the scoreboard in order to keep pace in this one, and I think it can. Note that the Cowboys opponents have averaged just 20 three-point attempts per game so far this season. Oral Roberts averages 34. In its last two matchups against Oklahoma State, ORU hoisted up 32 and 33 three-point attempts, scoring 75 and 78 points in those two contests. The 75-point effort came despite shooting a woeful 33.8% overall and 21.9% from beyond the arc in the 2019 matchup. The Cowboys ride into this game on a three-game 'over' streak and I think it continues for at least one more game. Take the over (10*). |
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11-25-21 | Alabama v. Iona OVER 148 | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Alabama and Iona at 5 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met in last March's NCAA Tournament we saw a much lower-scoring game than expected with Alabama essentially holding Iona down for 40 minutes in a 68-55 rout. Here, I'm anticipating a more spirited affair. Note that Iona got to the free throw line only five times in that previous matchup. The Gaels are getting to the line an average of 29 times per game in the early going this season. While the Gaels have yet to really get rolling offensively this season, I do think Alabama's up-tempo style will assist them in padding their offensive stats in this one. Note that the Crimson Tide are shooting a terrific 46.7% against opponents that allow just 40.6% this season. They've scored at least 86 points in three of four games so far. That low-scoring result in the 2021 NCAA Tournament is helping keep this total in check as I fully expected to see it open in the low-150's. Take the over (8*). |
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11-24-21 | Stony Brook v. Fairfield UNDER 134.5 | 78-83 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Stony Brook and Fairfield at 2 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams met right around a year ago with that game reaching 141 points to topple the closing total of 131.5. We're dealing with a higher posted total in this rematch but I'm not sure the move is warranted. There was nothing exceptional that either team did in last year's matchup. In fact, both teams shot around 40% from the field, they combined to knock down only nine three-point attempts and missed a whopping 23 free throws. That game saw just 55 first half points. Only a late scoring flurry, aided by free throws, ended up pushing the game 'over' the total. I like the way this sets up as a bounce-back spot for Stony Brook defensively. It has allowed all three opponents to shoot 50% or better this season but keep in mind, two of its three games came against quality foes in George Mason and Kansas, both on the road no less. Fairfield has shot 42.9% or worse in three of four games this season with the other coming against little-known Medgar Evers. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 35-22 in Stony Brook's last 57 lined contests and 40-21 in Fairfield's last 61. Take the under (8*). |
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11-24-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan State UNDER 138.5 | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Loyola-Chicago and Michigan State at 12 noon et on Wednesday. We'll go the contrarian route here and back the 'under' as the Ramblers enter this game sporting a 4-0 o/u record so far this season. Of course, Loyola-Chicago is known for its methodical pace and tough defense. Early on this season, however, the Ramblers have shot the lights out, knocking down better than 52% of their field goal attempts in all four games. The level of competition they've faced has had a lot to do with that as they've been favored by 18 points or more in all four games so far. Needless to say, they'll face their toughest test of the young season against the Spartans on Wednesday. Michigan State has held its last three opponents to a ridiculous 57-for-185 (30.8%) shooting. Like the Ramblers, the Spartans have also been lighting it up offensively. In their toughest previous test, they were held to a season-low 73 points against an undermanned Butler squad, however. With Loyola-Chicago looking to tighten things up off its worst defensive effort of the season (relatively speaking), I wouldn't anticipate Sparty running away and hiding in this one. Expect a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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11-11-21 | Cal-Riverside v. Arizona State UNDER 142 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UC-Riverside and Arizona State at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. Expectations are fairly high for both of these teams although Arizona State certainly boasts the loftier goals. The Sun Devils are hoping that a number of key transfers can help them rebound from a disastrous Covid-tinged 2020-21 season. Meanwhile, Riverside is hoping to build on the progress it made during a big 'step up' campaign last season. The Highlanders will once again hang their hats on their defensive play, which should be every bit as sound as it was a year ago. They drew a tough season-opening matchup on Tuesday but still managed to hold their own, allowing only 66 points while limiting San Diego State to 49 field goal attempts. The problem was their own three-point shots weren't falling (6-of-22 from three-point range) in an eventual 13-point loss as a 12.5-point underdog. Arizona State will look to play fast, just as it always has under Bobby Hurley. I do think the Highlanders are capable of frustrating the Sun Devils a bit in that regard though. Like Riverside, Arizona State struggled from beyond the arc in its season-opener, knocking down only 7-of-26 three-point attempts. The Sun Devils ultimately scored 76 points against Portland on Tuesday, but only managed to do so thanks to hoisting up 66 shots - a number I'm not convinced they can approach here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-09-21 | St. Peter's v. VCU UNDER 132.5 | 54-57 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Peter's and VCU and 6 pm et on Tuesday. St. Peter's returns all five starters from last year's team including defensive standout KC Ndefo and should prove to be a tricky season-opening non-conference opponent for VCU on Tuesday. The Peacocks ranked eighth in the country in defensive rating last season and will hang their hat on their play at the end of the floor again here in 2021-22. That's because their offense remains severely limited, noting they finished T233rd in pace rating and T324th in field goal percentage last season and don't figure to show a big improvement. This is certainly a tough season-opening draw for St. Peter's as well with VCU coming off a season that saw it finish 15th in the country in defensive rating and sixth in steals. While there are major questions in the backcourt, especially after losing Bones Hyland to the NBA and Ace Baldwin to a devastating ruptured achilles in the offseason, the Rams mantra will remain the same and that means playing a high-pressure brand of defense and being physical on offense, waiting for its opportunities to get to the rim rather than relying on outside shooting. The latter can result in draining the shot clock, and I'm confident Ndefo and the Peacocks will make them work for every basket down low. Both of these teams were comfortable playing games in the 110's and 120's last season and I would expect nothing different as they work out the kinks in Tuesday's season-opener. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga UNDER 160 | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 36 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Gonzaga at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Gonzaga's thrilling overtime victory over UCLA on Saturday while missing by a bucket with the 'under' in Baylor rout of Houston. Here, I love the way the 'under' sets up with what I feel is an inflated total for the final. Credit UCLA for hanging around in a game where most felt it would be overmatched on Saturday. It wasn't that Gonzaga played that poorly defensively, the Bruins quite simply knocked down their shots, hitting 58% from the field, in fact. There's no reason to get down on the Zags defense heading into Monday's game, however, noting that while known for its prolific offense, this is a Bulldogs squad that entered the tournament ranked 13th nationally in opponents floor percentage and 31st in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Unlike UCLA, Baylor does possess the length and athleticism to contend with the Zags offense in my opinion. The Bears have an active defense that entered the tourney ranked seventh in the country in steals per possession and 71st in block percentage. That's not to mention a very respectable 44th in opponents floor percentage. If anything, we've seen Baylor get stronger defensively as this tournament as gone on. The Bears not surprisingly got sped up a bit against Arkansas in the Elite Eight but outside of that we've seen them prefer to play a halfcourt game. This one is being priced as a potential track meet and while both teams have the pro-level talent to bring that to fruition, I believe there's a better chance we see the defenses step up and keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-03-21 | UCLA v. Gonzaga OVER 145.5 | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Gonzaga at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams delivered 'under' results in the Elite Eight, albeit in very different ways with UCLA involved in an extremely low-scoring victory over defensive-minded Michigan and Gonzaga putting up 85 points in a rout of USC. Here, I don't believe UCLA will be able to do anything to throw the Bulldogs off their game offensively, noting that the Bruins entered the tournament ranked a miserable 299th in the nation in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage. They also checked in ranked 201st in opponents effective field goal percentage and 156th in opponents floor percentage. I don't need to tell you that's just not going to cut it against a Gonzaga squad that ranks tops in the nation in both offensive efficiency and floor percentage. The Bruins have been hot and cold offensively in this tournament but might have a sliver of hope here with the Zags holding USC to 38.7% shooting last time out. That may seem contradictory, but it's worth noting that the Bulldogs haven't held consecutive opponents under 40% shooting since January 16th and 23rd against St. Mary's-CA and Pacific. The Bruins should at least get some good looks at the basket in this one, noting that Gonzaga ranks well north of 200th in terms of block percentage, and ranks worse than UCLA's last opponent, Michigan, in terms of opponents floor percentage, opponents effective field goal percentage and opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. This will by no means be a walk in the park for the Bruins offensively, but I think they can do enough to help get this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor UNDER 135 | Top | 59-78 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Baylor at 5:15 pm et on Saturday. This has the makings of a low-scoring battle between the Cougars and Bears on Saturday evening. Houston entered the tournament ranked number one in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage and it hasn't disappointed, holding its four opponents to 56, 60, 46 and 61 points. While this will be Houston's toughest test in the tournament to date, I believe it will be up for the challenge. Baylor put up 81 points in its Elite Eight win over Arkansas but that was the first time it broke the 80-point mark since back on March 7th against Texas Tech. I suspect the Bears might have trouble running their offense against a Houston defense that entered the tournament ranked ninth in the nation in block percentage and 16th in steals per possession. I also think Houston's slow pace, ranking around 300th in the country in possessions per game could cause the Bears some problems here. Where I don't expect Baylor to have any trouble is slowing a Houston offense that has topped out at 67 points since opening the tournament with a rout of an overmatched Cleveland State squad. Keep in mind, the Cougars Elite Eight victory over Oregon State got to just 128 points but featured 12 points in the game's final minute as the Beavers did everything they could to extend proceedings. I'm not convinced this game will go right down to the wire, and that should help our cause with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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03-30-21 | UCLA v. Michigan UNDER 136 | Top | 51-49 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UCLA and Michigan at 9:55 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in Michigan's Sweet 16 victory over Florida State on Sunday in a game that only came close to approaching the total thanks to its lopsided nature. Here, I'm expecting a more tightly-contested affair and will go back to the well with the 'under' once again. UCLA certainly didn't enter this tournament looking like an elite defensive team but we have seen the Bruins round into form at that end of the floor over the last couple of games, holding Abilene Christian and Alabama to a combined 37.3% shooting. Michigan has shot the lights out in this tournament so far but I would anticipate some regression in that department on Tuesday. It's worth noting that the Wolverines entered this tournament ranked a less than impressive 175th in the nation in extra scoring chances per game. I like the fact that both of these teams should be able to run their offenses on Tuesday night, with neither defense overly disruptive. UCLA entered the tourney ranked 299th in the nation in steals per possession while Michigan checked in an ugly 331st in that department. Both teams prefer to work deep into the shot clock on offense, with UCLA entering the tournament ranked 288th nationally in possessions per game and Michigan checking in 259th. The Bruins were involved in a more up-tempo game against Alabama on Sunday, although that one still only managed to get to 130 points in regulation time. Michigan has scored 82, 86 and 76 points through three games in this tournament. Keep in mind, the Wolverines had scored fewer than 70 points in four of their last five games heading in. Look for a return to 'normal' here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 148.5 | 72-81 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Baylor at 9:55 pm et on Monday. The potential is obviously there for this to turn into a track meet on Monday night but that's ultimately been factored into the total. I like what both teams bring to the table defensively and with a spot in the Final Four hanging in the balance, look for points to come at a premium in this one (relatively speaking, of course). Note that Baylor has allowed just north of 57 points per game when playing for just the second time in eight days over the last two seasons. Saturday's win over Villanova wasn't overly taxing on the Bears as far as I'm concerned and I expect them to be extremely active at the defensive end of the floor in this one, noting that they entered the tournament ranked an impressive seventh in the nation in steals per possession and top-75 in block percentage. For Arkansas' part, it has been a top-25 team in terms of opponents floor percentage this season and top-65 in opponents effective field goal percentage. After a loosely-played affair that featured 138 combined field goal attempts against Oral Roberts, look for this game to take on a more defensive tone. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC UNDER 138 | 68-82 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and USC at 9:45 pm et on Sunday. When these teams met during the Pac-12 regular season they combined to score only 130 points and I anticipate more of the same here with a lot more to play for in the Sweet 16. While the Ducks put up a whopping 95 points in an extremely high-scoring affair against Iowa last time out, note that Oregon checks in 262nd in the nation in possessions per game and won't have much interest in a track meet here. Likewise, USC ranks north of 200th in the country in possessions per game and should be comfortable playing this one in the 50's or 60's. I like the disruptive nature of both defenses, with USC in particular being stingy around the basket, ranking an impressive 11th in the country in block percentage. The Trojans will let Oregon run its offense here, likely deep into the shot clock on most possessions, noting that USC ranks 316th in steals per possession. Conversely, while Oregon sits just inside the top-90 in block percentage, it ranks 45th in steals per possession. But again, what it does with those extra possessions should support our cause with the 'under' as the Ducks don't generally look to push the pace. Note that USC allows just 64.5 points per game playing away from home off a double-digit win over the last two seasons while Oregon gives up 64.2 ppg after an ATS win over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-21 | Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143.5 | 58-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida State and Michigan at 5 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Florida State's blowout win over Colorado in the Round of 32 and I won't hesitate to go back the well with the same play here as the Seminoles challenge top-seeded Michigan on Sunday afternoon. This game will pit two elite defensive teams with Michigan ranking sixth in the nation in opponents effective field goal percentage and third in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Florida State is a top-20 team in opponents effective field goal percentage and a very respectable 48th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage this season. Both teams also rank inside the top-60 in opponents floor percentage. We'll see a contrast in styles here as Michigan will look to use most of the shot clock as it checks in 245th in the country in possessions per game while Florida State will undoubtedly try to speed things up, ranking 132nd in that category. I do believe both teams will be able to run their offenses without a great deal of disruption. Note in particular that Michigan ranks a woeful 337th in the nation in steals per possession this season. That's beneficial to Florida State given it doesn't always take great care of the basketball, ranking 251st in the nation in turnovers per possession. While I have a lot of respect for both of these offenses, I simply feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis UNDER 135.5 | 64-77 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Memphis at 12 noon et on Sunday. Both of these teams overwhelmed their opponents in yesterday's NIT matchups with Memphis scoring 90 points and Mississippi State putting up 84 points in blowout victories. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. While the Bulldogs shot 56% from the field including 50% from beyond the arc yesterday, they can go cold just as quickly as they get hot, noting they've been held to fewer than 60 points on eight different occasions this season. Here, they'll be up against an elite Memphis defense that has only allowed one opponent to break 70 points since the beginning of March - that being Elite Eight-bound Houston. The Tigers also shot a blistering 56% from the field yesterday including 52% from beyond the arc but will have to deal with a Mississippi State defense that ranks 34th in the nation in block percentage. Also note that the Bulldogs do an excellent job cleaning up on the glass, ranking 12th in the country in total rebounding percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas OVER 159 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oral Roberts and Arkansas at 7:25 pm et on Saturday. This will be the second meeting between these two schools this season with Arkansas cruising to a 87-76 victory back on December 20th. Here on Saturday, I believe the Razorbacks scoring 100 or more points is well within the realm of possibility - a bold prediction, I know, but the situation sets up well for a track meet between these two up-tempo teams. Oral Roberts entered this tournament ranked a miserable 292nd in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 187th in opponents effective field goal percentage. The Golden Eagles have rode their offense to consecutive upset victories over Ohio State and Florida to reach the Sweet 16 but now face a whole other sort of challenge, as they're well aware of after running into the Hogs during the regular season. I don't expect ORU to shy away from its regular gameplan here, as it entered the tourney ranked 42nd in the nation in possessions per game. That of course plays right into the hands of an Arkansas team that likes to play at a break-neck pace, entering the tournament ranked 12th in possessions per game. There's little reason to believe the Golden Eagles can offer much defensive resistance here as they rank north of 200th in the country in steals per possession and do an awful job rebounding, checking in north of 300th in total rebounding percentage. The hope for ORU here is that Arkansas gets a little carried away running the floor and lacks a bit of focus at the defensive end of the floor. After getting bogged down in a narrow win over defensive-minded Texas Tech, the Hogs will certainly welcome the opportunity to get loose in this one but it may come at the expense of their own defense. Either way, much like the regular season matchup did, I'm confident this one finds its way 'over' the lofty but not unreasonable posted total, noting that Arkansas averages a whopping 93.8 points per game when the total is set between 150 and 159.5 this season, with those contests totaling an average of 167.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-25-21 | Boise State v. Memphis UNDER 143 | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Memphis at 9 pm et on Thursday. Boise State has given up 80+ points in back-to-back games which I don't think speaks to the identity or quality of this Broncos team. Meanwhile, Memphis has been playing like an elite defensive team for weeks and does match up well with the Boise offense here. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 when Memphis checks in playing away from home off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 128.9 points. The Tigers have allowed just 62 points per game in lined contests as a favorite this season. Meanwhile, Boise State has allowed just 67 points per game after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons. Here, the Broncos will run into a Memphis squad that ranks top-three in the nation in opponents floor percentage this season. The Tigers also rank eighth in the country in steals per possession and 15th in block percentage. Boise State is what I would consider a 'tough out', however, noting that the Broncos do rank a respectable 63rd in the nation in defensive efficiency and 60th in turnovers per possession on offense. I'm not expecting a third straight track meet for Boise here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-21 | NC State v. Colorado State UNDER 146 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and Colorado State at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams put up 75 points in their NIT openers but I expect them to have a tough time approaching that number as they match up in this quarter-final game on Thursday night. Note that N.C. State ranks just 225th in the nation in possessions per game while Colorado State checks in 205th. I do think the Wolfpack will be able to run their offense in this one as the Rams rank 258th in steals per possession and 232nd in block percentage. However, Colorado does rank an impressive 64th in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage, not to mention 25th in opponents floor percentage. The Rams offense will be taking a step up in class against N.C. State here, noting that the Wolfpack rank 11th in the country in steals per possession and 34th in block percentage. I do think Colorado State will have a tough time getting comfortable at the offensive end of the floor. Keep in mind, this is a Rams squad that shoots below 44% from the field away from home this season. Also alarming for Colorado State is the fact that it ranks 251st in the nation in extra scoring chances per game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
CBB Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Florida State at 7:45 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in second round action on Monday night. The Buffaloes exploded for 96 points in a rout of Georgetown on Saturday but I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. Monday's opponent, Florida State, entered the tournament ranked 12th in the nation in block percentage and 32nd in opponents effective field goal percentage this season. For its part, Colorado entered the tournament ranked a very respectable 41st in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 30th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. The Buffaloes 96-point outburst in the opening round was unlikely considering they rank north of 300th in the country in possessions per game. I expect a much different type of game to unfold against the Seminoles on Monday. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 when Colorado comes off a game where 155 or more points were scored over the last two seasons with those contests totaling just 126.6 points on average. The 'under' is also 24-8 when Colorado plays after winning four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 132.3 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois UNDER 133.5 | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Loyola-Chicago and Illinois at 12:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Illinois' opening round win over Drexel and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as the Illini take in Loyola-Chicago. The Ramblers play at one of the slowest paces in the entire nation, yet they're coming off an 'over' result in their opening round matchup - a 71-60 win over Georgia Tech. Note that in 10 games where the Ramblers played on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, those contests totaled an average of just 126.7 points. Loyola-Chicago entered the tournament ranked tops in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 14th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Of course, Illinois is no slouch defensively as we saw on Friday as it held Drexel to 30.6% shooting. While Loyola-Chicago will likely improve on that shooting performance here, I'm not convinced it will be enough to get this one 'over' the total. In what has the potential to be a tightly-contested affair it's worth mentioning that Illinois ranks 234th in the country in free throw percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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03-20-21 | UCLA v. BYU OVER 138.5 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
CBB First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and BYU at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in UCLA's overtime victory over Michigan State in Thursday's First Four matchup and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Saturday as the Bruins take on the Cougars of BYU. As I noted in Thursday's analysis, Bruins head coach Mick Cronin noted during the Pac-12 Tournament that his team had 'hit a wall' both mentally and physically. I mentioned that I felt the week off following their exit from the Pac-12 Tournament might serve them well and that's precisely what appeared to be the case on Thursday as the Bruins played loose and scored 86 points (77 of those in regulation time), shooting better than 46% from the field and turning the ball over only eight times. I like the way this sets up as another relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday. Note that UCLA checks in 38th in the nation in offensive efficiency and an even better 27th in floor percentage. For its part, BYU also ranks highly at the offensive end of the floor, sitting 42nd in offensive efficiency and 59th in floor percentage. While the Cougars also check in as a solid defensive team, it's certainly worth noting that they didn't face many elite offenses outside of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. In two matchups against Gonzaga, BYU gave up 82 and 88 points. While UCLA is by no means on the same level as Gonzaga, the point is still worth making as a now-healthy Bruins squad is certainly capable of giving the Cougars some heartburn defensively. I like the fact that neither team causes a great deal of chaos at the defensive end of the floor. UCLA ranks a miserable 299th in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage. For its part, BYU ranks 329th and 220th in those two categories, respectively. While the Bruins don't prefer a fast pace, ranking 288th in possessions per game, they do make up for it by ranking 61st in extra scoring chances per game. This may not turn out to be a track meet, but it doesn't have to be with the total sitting in the 130's. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Drexel v. Illinois UNDER 143.5 | 49-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Drexel and Illinois at 1:15 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Illinois' Big Ten Championship Game win over Ohio State last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Illini begin what they hope will be a deep NCAA Tournament run. While the Illini should handle Drexel without too much heartburn, there are a number of reasons why I believe the Dragons can at least keep things respectable and ultimately help keep this one 'under' the total. Drexel actually ranks 42nd in the nation in offensive efficiency this season and 50th in floor percentage. Against an Illinois defense that ranks 263rd in steals per possession and 224th in block percentage I do think the Dragons will be able to run their offense to a certain extent but I question how many productive possessions (possessions resulting in points) they'll have given Illinois ranks 34th in the nation in opponents effective field goal percentage. Note that Drexel ranks 319th in the country in possessions per game so it isn't going to look to push the pace in this one. That's obviously a stark contrast to Illinois, which ranks 70th in possessions per game but I do think the Dragons can at least make a concerted effort to bog things down a little bit in this one - it's really their only hope of staying competitive. I'll also point out that Drexel ranks 235th in extra scoring chances per game while Illinois has also been quite average in that category, ranking 130th. Take the under (10*). |
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03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State OVER 134.5 | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Michigan State at 9:55 pm et on Thursday. In previous years this matchup may have set up as a defensive slugfest but given the current state of both programs, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair on Thursday night. Note that both UCLA and Michigan State have given up well north of 70 points per game away from home this season. Michigan State enters this game riding a six-game 'under' streak and admittedly played pretty solid defense down the stretch. I believe UCLA will give it some trouble on Thursday night, however. The time off since the Bruins made their unceremonious exit from the Pac-12 Tournament should have served them well as this was a team that head coach Mick Cronin admitted had 'hit the wall' near the end of a trying season due to injuries and otherwise. This 'First Four' berth gives the Bruins a new lease on life, so to speak. Note that UCLA ranks an impressive 28th in the nation in floor percentage this season and also checks in 62nd in the country in extra scoring chances per game. The problem for the Bruins is that they rank 199th in opponents effective field goal percentage, really not able to make life difficult on opposing offenses with any consistency over the course of the season. Michigan State got bogged down offensively at times but that's pretty much par for the course against some elite defensive teams in the Big Ten. Keep in mind, prior to the onset of conference play, the Spartans averaged 84.8 points per game in six non-conference tilts. Take the over (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Drake and Wichita State at 6:25 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as more of a grind-it-out, defensive battle than the oddsmakers are accounting for on Thursday. I expect to see both teams run their offenses in this one, with not a lot of fast break and transition points with both sides adept at taking care of the basketball. Note that Drake ranks an impressive ninth in the country in fewest turnovers per possession while Wichita State checks in a very respectable 24th. Drake is also 299th in the country in possessions per game with Wichita State in the middle of the pack in that department, ranking 168th. I'm not expecting either team to stray from their preferred style and really look to speed things up here with a berth in the field of 64 on the line. Drake is expected to have ShanQuan Hemphill back in the lineup for the first time since February but it remains to be seen how much he will contribute in his first game back. Both teams rank top-100 in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage this season, with Wichita State sitting in the top-50. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 when Wichita State follows two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 129.5 points. With the Missouri Valley Conference being quite top-heavy this season, Drake was able to pad its offensive stats against some weak opposition. Meanwhile, Wichita State - a former MVC member - now resides in the American Athletic Conference, which is known for its high-scoring, up-tempo teams. It all adds up to a relatively high posted total for this one, and I believe that number will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy NCAA-B Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-23-22 | TCU v. Texas UNDER 126.5 | 66-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
02-21-22 | Eastern Illinois v. SIU-Edwardsville UNDER 128 | 52-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
02-21-22 | Liberty v. Central Arkansas OVER 150.5 | Top | 85-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
02-19-22 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 126.5 | 61-55 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
02-16-22 | Baylor v. Texas Tech UNDER 137 | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
02-15-22 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green OVER 163 | 112-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
02-14-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas UNDER 143.5 | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
02-14-22 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech UNDER 119.5 | 53-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
02-13-22 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
02-13-22 | Stony Brook v. Maine UNDER 139.5 | Top | 85-74 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
02-12-22 | Dartmouth v. Princeton OVER 139.5 | 40-85 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
02-09-22 | High Point v. Presbyterian UNDER 128 | Top | 79-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
02-08-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo OVER 148.5 | Top | 64-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
02-07-22 | NC-Wilmington v. Hofstra OVER 145 | Top | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
02-05-22 | UNLV v. Utah State UNDER 139 | 75-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
02-05-22 | Sacred Heart v. St Francis NY OVER 142.5 | Top | 66-62 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
02-04-22 | Princeton v. Cornell OVER 157.5 | Top | 83-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
02-03-22 | UCLA v. Arizona OVER 146.5 | Top | 66-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
02-03-22 | Western Illinois v. Oral Roberts OVER 161.5 | Top | 90-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
02-02-22 | Binghamton v. Stony Brook OVER 141 | 77-61 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
02-01-22 | Providence v. St. John's OVER 146 | 86-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
01-31-22 | New Mexico v. San Diego State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 47-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
01-31-22 | Eastern Washington v. Weber State OVER 156 | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
01-29-22 | Eastern Kentucky v. Stetson OVER 139.5 | Top | 95-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
01-27-22 | California v. UCLA UNDER 130 | Top | 57-81 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
01-27-22 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska OVER 145 | Top | 73-65 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
01-26-22 | Marquette v. Seton Hall OVER 145.5 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
01-24-22 | Louisville v. Virginia UNDER 124.5 | Top | 52-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
01-09-22 | Northwestern v. Ohio State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 87-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
01-02-22 | Michigan State v. Northwestern UNDER 139.5 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
12-28-21 | Northwestern State v. Baylor UNDER 146 | Top | 68-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
12-18-21 | Northern Colorado v. Washington State OVER 141 | 56-82 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
12-17-21 | St. Mary's v. San Diego State UNDER 119 | 53-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
12-16-21 | Dartmouth v. Stanford UNDER 131.5 | 78-89 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
12-15-21 | Middle Tennessee v. Ole Miss OVER 133.5 | 52-62 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
12-15-21 | Chattanooga v. Belmont UNDER 141 | 68-76 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
12-13-21 | Rhode Island v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 131.5 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
12-11-21 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State UNDER 136.5 | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
12-06-21 | Mercer v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 139.5 | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
12-03-21 | Fairfield v. Canisius OVER 141.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
11-26-21 | Oklahoma State v. Oral Roberts OVER 148 | Top | 78-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
11-25-21 | Alabama v. Iona OVER 148 | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
11-24-21 | Stony Brook v. Fairfield UNDER 134.5 | 78-83 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
11-24-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan State UNDER 138.5 | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
11-11-21 | Cal-Riverside v. Arizona State UNDER 142 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
11-09-21 | St. Peter's v. VCU UNDER 132.5 | 54-57 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga UNDER 160 | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 36 h 21 m | Show | |
04-03-21 | UCLA v. Gonzaga OVER 145.5 | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor UNDER 135 | Top | 59-78 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
03-30-21 | UCLA v. Michigan UNDER 136 | Top | 51-49 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 148.5 | 72-81 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC UNDER 138 | 68-82 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
03-28-21 | Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143.5 | 58-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
03-28-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis UNDER 135.5 | 64-77 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
03-27-21 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas OVER 159 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
03-25-21 | Boise State v. Memphis UNDER 143 | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
03-25-21 | NC State v. Colorado State UNDER 146 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois UNDER 133.5 | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
03-20-21 | UCLA v. BYU OVER 138.5 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
03-19-21 | Drexel v. Illinois UNDER 143.5 | 49-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State OVER 134.5 | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |