Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-13-23 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina UNDER 156.5 | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and North Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday. This total is about as high as you would expect in this matchup, noting that we saw a closing total of 154 in a game that totalled only 142 points in the most recent meeting between the two teams last season. While North Carolina is always going to be known for its offense, it can play some defense as well. The Tar Heels have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals while also limiting six of their last nine foes to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. North Carolina checks in ranked a respectable 46th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. The Hurricanes are admittedly red hot offensively right now, having made good on more than 30 field goals in three of their last four games. However, their margin for error hasn't been all that large as they've gotten off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in four of their last six games and 60 or less in eight of their last 10 contests overall. Miami hasn't played its best defensive basketball lately, yielding 28 or more made field goals in three of its last four games with Saturday's poor performance at that end of the floor against Louisville perhaps serving as a low-water mark (it allowed the Cardinals to knock down 33-of-57 field goal attempts). The Canes have managed to limit their opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent, however, allowing just 51, 59, 54 and 57 FG attempts over their last four games. That type of discipline defensively would undoubtedly serve them well in an underdog role against the Tar Heels here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-12-23 | Quinnipiac v. Canisius OVER 144.5 | 65-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Quinnipiac and Canisius at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled a whopping 169 points and while we're working with a slightly higher posted total in this rematch, I believe it will still prove too low. Quinnipiac has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in six of its last seven games overall and it should be able to make the most of those scoring opportunities here noting that Canisius' opponents have been 'filling it up', making good on 33, 30, 25, 26 and 33 field goals over its last six contests. The Golden Griffins are coming off a poor offensive showing in a blowout loss to Iona on Friday as they knocked down only 20-of-53 field goal attempts. Prior to that they had gotten off more than 60 FG attempts in four straight games, making good on 25 or more field goals in all four of those contests. Quinnipiac has allowed 26 or more made field goals in five of its last six contests - the only opponent it held down over that stretch was Fairfield, one of, if not the worst offensive team in the MAAC. Take the over (8*). |
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02-11-23 | Colorado v. Utah UNDER 137 | Top | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Utah at 10 pm et on Saturday. We won with Colorado in its most recent game as it shot the lights out in the second half in an eventual blowout win over Stanford last Sunday. The Buffaloes aren't exactly known for their offense, noting they rank 141st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Prior to last Sunday's breakout performance, Colorado had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in seven of its previous eight games. The going won't be easy on the road against a Utah squad that ranks a respectable 30th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Speaking of that metric, Colorado checks in 19th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Buffaloes have limited six straight opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts with only three of those opponents getting north of 50. Utah, like Colorado, has been inconsistent offensively. It could only connect on 21-of-57 field goal attempts against a bad California defense last time out. The Utes have been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four games with 25 being their high-water mark over that stretch. Both meetings between these two teams last season were surprisingly high-scoring, getting into the 150's despite closing totals in the high-130's. I believe those results are helping play a factor in keeping this total a little higher than it should be on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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02-10-23 | Marist v. St. Peter's UNDER 124.5 | Top | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Marist and St. Peter's at 7 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams saw just 118 points scored in a narrow St. Peter's road victory. We're actually dealing with a higher posted total this time around than we saw in that mid-January matchup and it has a lot to do with the fact that both of these teams are coming off consecutive 'over' results. I expect those 'over' streaks to come to a halt on Friday. Marist has been pushing the pace a little more than we've been accustomed to seeing lately but that's been largely game-script dependent as it has often been playing from behind by considerable margins. Note that the Red Foxes check in ranked 336th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 278th in adjusted tempo despite only facing the 341st toughest slate of opponents this season (all according to KenPom). Things won't get any easier here noting that St. Peter's has been effective in severely limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, allowing fewer than 50 field goal attempts in an incredible seven straight games entering Friday's contest. Last time out, the Peacocks simply ran into a hot shooting Rider squad in an 81-62 loss. Prior to allowing the Broncs to knock down 26 field goals in that game, they had held six consecutive foes to 21 or fewer made field goals. It's been another story offensively as St. Peter's continues to struggle. It has topped out at 23 made field goals over its last six games and that came in a contest where it shot better than 52% from the field. The Peacocks rank a miserable 327th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 343rd in adjusted tempo. Going back to that first meeting between these two teams this season, it reached only 118 total points despite the two teams combining to shoot 51 free throws (making 38). Note that on the season, these two squads average just 21-of-30 combined from the charity stripe. Take the under (10*). |
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02-09-23 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Long Beach State OVER 145 | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
Big West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cal-Santa Barbara and Long Beach State at 11 pm et on Thursday. Santa Barbara plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation yet checks into this game on the heels of four straight 'over' results, including a stunning loss as a double-digit road favorite at Cal State-Fullerton last time out. It's an interesting contrast when it comes to the Gauchos as they play slow but are ultra-efficient offensively. Here, I expect them to get plenty of good looks against a Long Beach State squad that plays at the second-fastest tempo in the country, only ranking behind Alabama in terms of adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The 49ers enter this game off six straight wins, fortunate that a number of their recent opponents haven't been able to take advantage of their wealth of scoring opportunities. Long Beach State has allowed six of its last seven opponents to get off at least 62 field goal attempts. Last time out, it yielded a whopping 70 FG attempts against Cal-Irvine in a game that reached 181 total points. As I mentioned, the 49ers like to play fast offensively, hoisting up more than 70 FG attempts in four of their last seven contests. They've made good on 28 or more field goals in six of their last seven games overall. Cal-Santa Barbara has faced a slew of weaker Big West squads lately, favored by double-digits in four of its last five games. While the Gauchos are a top-100 team in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom), that has had something to do with the fact they've only faced the 305th most difficult schedule in the country. It's interesting to note that Santa Barbara has been held under 70 points in each of their last three games, matching their longest such streak of the season. A date with Long Beach State should provide ample opportunity to bounce back in what projects as a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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02-08-23 | Florida v. Alabama OVER 147.5 | Top | 69-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Alabama at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Despite playing at the fasted tempo in the country this season (according to KenPom), Alabama has posted just two 'over' results in its last 10 games. Each of the Crimson Tide's last two contests have stayed 'under' the total. That's helped set us up with a very reasonable total on Wednesday as the Tide host the Florida Gators. Florida checks in off a 72-67 loss at Kentucky on Saturday. Both of these teams tend to give up a ton of scoring opportunities with Florida having allowed at least 60 field goal attempts in seven straight and nine of its last 10 games overall. Alabama has yielded more than 60 field goal attempts to its opponents in 16 of its last 18 contests. While both squads rate out well in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (again according to KenPom), I believe the door is open for both offenses to go off on Wednesday. Florida has been held under 70 points in three straight games entering this contest - its longest such streak of the season. It did show some signs of life offensively last time out, knocking down 23 field goals in a tough spot at Kentucky. After facing a pair of down-trodden squads in Vandy and LSU over its last two games, I believe Alabama could be in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here, noting that prior to holding those two foes under 20 made field goals, the Crimson Tide had allowed seven of their previous eight opponents to knock down more than 20 field goals. Offensively, Alabama is elite. The Crimson Tide continue to 'fill it up', making good on at least 25 field goals in an incredible 15 of their last 16 games overall. The Gators were locked-in defensively earlier in the campaign but have since sagged in that regard, allowing eight of their last 10 opponents to knock down at least 22 field goals - a number Alabama is sure to eclipse with ease here. The pace will be there, whether this total proves high enough will depend on whether the two teams can make the most of their scoring opportunities. I'm confident they will, noting that last year's lone meeting reached 153 total points despite both teams shooting worse than 43% from the field. Take the over (10*). |
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02-07-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh OVER 138.5 | Top | 57-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Pittsburgh at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams fizzled this season as Pittsburgh rolled to a 75-54 road win on January 18th. We're working with a lower posted total this time around and I believe it will prove too low. Louisville has shown some signs of life offensively of late, knocking down 25 or more field goals in three of its last four games. The Cardinals had their share of opportunities in that first meeting with Pitt but simply couldn't convert, making good on just 19 field goals. It's not as if Pitt is a defensive juggernaut. The Panthers have allowed 10 of their last 11 opponents to knock down at least 23 field goals. They were fortunate last time out that North Carolina had an off night shooting, as the Tar Heels actually got off a whopping 66 field goal attempts, but could only hit 23 of them. Here, I'm just not convinced we see a peak performance from the Pitt defense against an opponent it has already manhandled this season. On the flip side, the Panthers figure to take advantage of an awful Louisville defense that has seemingly gotten even looser lately, allowing three straight opponents to get off more than 60 FG attempts. Pitt enters this contest having made good on 28, 26 and 25 field goals over its last three games and has hoisted up 55 or more FG attempts in seven of its last eight overall. Take the over (10*). |
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02-06-23 | Green Bay v. Wisc-Milwaukee OVER 142 | Top | 80-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wisconsin-Green Bay and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 8 pm et on Monday. The first meeting between these two in-state rivals totalled 148 points back in December. We're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around as a result, but I believe it's warranted. Green Bay enters this contest off four straight 'under' results. The Phoenix have shot poorly over that stretch - in fact, they've been held to fewer than 20 made field goals in four straight games, their longest such streak of the season. I do think the pace alone should get them over the hump here, however, noting that Wisconsin-Milwaukee ranks 17th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Panthers have allowed 16 consecutive opponents to knock down more than 20 field goals. Their last game snapped a stretch of nine straight contests in which they allowed 62 or more field goal attempts. Keep in mind, the pitiful Phoenix made good on 23 field goals and scored 67 points in the first meeting between these teams this season. The Panthers were fortunate to secure a 72-69 win over IUPUI last time out. They got off a whopping 69 FG attempts in that contest but could only hit 26 of them. I certainly anticipate them improving on that shooting percentage here, noting that Green Bay ranks a miserable 361st in the nation (that's third-to-last) in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Take the over (10*). |
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02-06-23 | Duke v. Miami-FL OVER 145.5 | 59-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Miami at 7 pm et on Monday. When these two teams last met on January 21st, they combined to score just 134 points. We're dealing with a lower posted total for this rematch and I believe it will prove too low. The pace was certainly there for a much higher-scoring affair in the first meeting. Duke got off 62 field goal attempts while Miami countered with 63. Both teams ended up shooting poorly with the Blue Devils knocking down 25 field goals and the Hurricanes making good on only 22 in a narrow two-point defeat. It's worth noting that Miami has been more efficient offensively while also playing at a slightly faster pace at home compared to on the road this season. The Canes enter this contest on an offensive tear having knocked down 31, 26, 35 and 26 field goals over their last four games, despite getting off 58 or fewer field goal attempts in three of those tilts. Duke has had little success (or interest) in slowing its opponents' pace lately, allowing 63 or more FG attempts in three of its last five games. Meanwhile, Miami's opponents have been afforded plenty of good looks, knocking down 25 or more field goals in an incredible 10 straight games. Take the over (8*). |
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02-04-23 | Syracuse v. Boston College OVER 138.5 | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Syracuse and Boston College at 5 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results earlier in the week. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as they do battle in a rematch of a New Year's Eve game that reached 144 total points. Syracuse enters this game shooting well, having knocked down 30, 28, 29, 31, 29, 23 and 24 field goals in its last seven games. The two outliers - coming in its last two contests - came in games where the Orange were held to fewer than 50 field goal attempts. I don't see this game being played at such a snail's pace, however. Note that the Orange have allowed six of their last seven opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Boston College yields an average of 59 FG attempts to its opponents here in Chestnut Hill this season. Syracuse isn't an awful defensive team by any means but you would have to go all the way back to December 10th (against an awful Georgetown team) to find the last time it held an opponent to fewer than 23 made field goals. Of the Orange's last seven opponents, six have knocked down at least 25 field goals. It's a similar story for Boston College. The Eagles were fortunate that Clemson couldn't hit its shots last time out, connecting on only 16-of-52 FG attempts in a 62-54 Boston College victory. Prior to that, the Eagles had allowed five of their last six opponents to make good on at least 26 field goals with three of those foes connecting on 30 or more. Offensively, the Eagles are anything but a juggernaut but they're playing some of their best basketball right now and I do think they can give Syracuse a run here and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair, given what I outlined regarding the Orange defense earlier. Take the over (8*). |
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02-04-23 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame OVER 148.5 | Top | 81-64 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Notre Dame at 1 pm et on Saturday. Wake Forest has incredibly seen each of its last 12 games go 'over' the total and I expect that streak to last for at least one more game as the Demon Deacons head to South Bend to face the Irish on Saturday afternoon. Notre Dame has actually posted six consecutive 'over' results itself. The Irish check in ranked a miserable 287th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Facing a Wake Forest squad that ranks 27th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 93rd in adjusted tempo, not to mention the fact it is coming off four straight losses, doesn't figure to help Notre Dame's cause here. The Irish don't play at a particularly fast pace, but I expect their hand to be forced on Saturday, likely playing from behind for a considerable portion of this contest as a home underdog. You would have to go back 10 games to find the last time Notre Dame limited an opponent to fewer than 25 made field goals. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in three of its last five contests. It simply didn't make the most of its scoring opportunities last time out against Duke, shooting a miserable 24-of-64 from the field (but still scoring 73 points). I expect it to snap right back here. The Irish have put up more than 70 points in four straight home games though and could be catching the Demon Deacons defense at the right time. In fact, Wake has been a completely different defensive team compared to the first month of the season, yielding 27 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 14 games. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-23 | Cornell v. Princeton OVER 157 | Top | 82-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cornell and Princeton at 7 pm et on Friday. I've been waiting for this rematch since Cornell and Princeton combined to score 'only' 143 points in the first meeting of the season back on January 7th. We cashed one of our bigger plays of the season last year with the 'over' in a game between the Big Red and Tigers with that contest totalling 171 points almost a year to the day, on February 4th, 2022. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that the first meeting this season was played in Cornell's home gym. That's notable as Princeton plays considerably faster here at home, where it averages two more field goal attempts per game compared to its season average while also giving up three additional FG attempts per contest (also compared to its season average). Cornell figures to take advantage as it is quietly on an incredible shooting run, having knocked down 31, 30 and 32 field goals over its last three contests. Unfortunately, the Big Red have also been very forgiving defensively, yielding 30, 28, 32 and 27 made field goals over their last four games. Princeton got off 62 field goal attempts last time out against Harvard, but could only knock down 26 of them. I certainly expect it to bounce back in that regard here. Like Cornell, Princeton has struggled to contain opposing offenses, allowing 24, 28, 21, 34 and 35 made field goals over its last five contests. Take the over (10*). |
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01-28-23 | Texas Tech v. LSU OVER 132 | Top | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas Tech and LSU at 2 pm et on Saturday. We'll go the contrarian route with this play as LSU checks in off a deplorable 14-made field goal performance in a 60-40 loss to Arkansas last time out while Texas Tech reaches Baton Rouge off consecutive 'under' results. I wouldn't categorize either of these defenses as elite, or anything remotely close. Yet the Red Raiders have held their last two opponents to just 20 and 19 made field goals. Keep in mind, they still lost both of those games by double-digits, allowing 68 and 76 points against Kansas State and West Virginia, respectively. After facing a very difficult slate of opponents in SEC play, the Tigers will likely be happy to face a Big 12 opponent in Texas Tech on Saturday. While LSU's offense has been a big part of the problem lately, it has also allowed its last four opponents to knock down 35, 26, 29 and 23 field goals. The pace has been there but Texas Tech just hasn't been able to make its shots lately, noting that it is just one game removed from hoisting up a whopping 71 field goal attempts against Kansas State. Here, I do expect the Red Raiders to put it together offensively and help this one sail 'over' the reasonably low total. Finally, I'll note that these two teams produced 147 total points (with a closing total of 143.5) the last time they met in 2021. Take the over (10*). |
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01-26-23 | UCLA v. USC OVER 130 | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and USC at 9 pm et on Thursday. The first meeting between these Los Angeles rivals resulted in a low-scoring 60-58 UCLA victory back on January 5th. I expect a higher-scoring affair in Thursday's rematch as we're dealing with a reasonably low total, largely due to the recent run of 'unders' both teams have been on. It's only a matter of time before the Bruins enjoy an offensive explosion in my opinion. I believe we might just see that 'slingshot' effect in this matchup on Thursday. Note that UCLA has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in three of its last four games. Here, it faces a vulnerable USC defense that has had little success (or interest) in slowing its opponents' pace, yielding 24 or more made field goals in four of its last six games and 58 or more field goal attempts in five straight contests. On the flip side, the Trojans can shoot. They've incredible knocked down 24 or more field goals in 11 straight games. The Bruins are one of the best defensive teams in the nation without question but here, against a revenge-minded Trojans squad, I expect them to have their hands full. Take the over (8*). |
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01-25-23 | Louisville v. Boston College OVER 133.5 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Boston College at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting on Wednesday night in Chestnut Hill. Louisville is of course mired in a down season having lost 17 of 19 games overall and eight in a row entering Wednesday's contest. We had actually seen a bit of a spark from the Cardinals offensively for a stretch prior to getting held down by a pair of tough opponents in North Carolina and Pittsburgh in their last two games. I'm confident we'll see them do enough to help this total along on Wednesday, however, noting that Boston College has allowed five of its last eight opponents to get off 60 or more field goal attempts with the opposition knocking down 26 or more field goals in three of its last four contests. Offensively, the Eagles have been quietly 'filling it up', making good on 28, 26, 32, 21, 26 and 29 field goals over their last six games. Even in the low-water mark of 21 over that stretch, the Eagles still scored 63 points in a game that totalled 148 points against Wake Forest. Last year's matchup between these two teams was a low-scoring one, reaching only 121 total points. We're dealing with a considerably lower posted total this time around, however, noting that last year's game saw a closing total of 138. Take the over (10*). |
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01-23-23 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 149.5 | Top | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and Baylor at 9 pm et on Monday. These two teams enjoyed far different results on Saturday as Kansas was embarrassed in a 23-point home loss against TCU while Baylor eked out a 62-60 road win over Oklahoma. Noting that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with Kansas coming off consecutive games in which it allowed 75 points or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 132.3 points, we'll confidently back the 'under' in a series that has generally been lower-scoring than most have expected over the years. Baylor got off to an 0-3 start in conference play, marked by a couple of high-scoring defeats at the hands of TCU and Kansas State, at home no less. Since then, we've seen the Bears lock in defensively, allowing 23, 23, 27 and 26 made field goals and no more than 60 field goal attempts over their last four games. For Kansas, it is in a clear bounce-back spot here after getting lit up for 31 made field goals against TCU on Saturday. Poor defensive efforts don't pop up often when it comes to the Bill Self-coached Jayhawks and I'm confident we'll see them respond positively in that department on Monday. Prior to Saturday's game, Kansas had held an incredible 15 of its first 18 opponents this season to 25 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*). |
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01-22-23 | Washington State v. Colorado UNDER 137 | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Colorado at 6 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Thursday, snapping a three-game 'under' streak for Washington State and a four-game run of 'unders' for Colorado. Here, I expect a return to normal, so to speak, with a relatively low-scoring affair between the Cougars and Buffaloes. Nothing went right for Washington State last time out as it couldn't generate any sustained offense, nor could it sniff out a stop against Utah (the Utes shot 31-of-56 from the field). I do expect the Cougars to bounce back here, particularly at the defensive end of the floor, where they had held their previous three opponents to 20, 19 and 22 made field goals. It's also worth noting they've limited four of their last five opponents to 56 field goal attempts or fewer. The only occasion where they didn't was largely game-script dependent as they had an up-tempo Arizona squad playing from behind most of the night in a stunning double-digit road victory. Colorado is coming off a poor defensive performance of its own as it allowed Washington to knock down 27-of-50 field goal attempts on Thursday. The Buffaloes made good on 28 field goals themselves, representing a high-water mark since hitting 30 field goals in a narrow loss at Cal on New Year's Eve. Prior to Thursday's poor performance, Colorado had held its last two Pac-12 opponents to just 14 and 18 made field goals and 41 and 42 points here on its home floor. Take the under (8*). |
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01-19-23 | UCLA v. Arizona State OVER 135 | Top | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Arizona State at 10:30 pm et on Thursday. The 'under' has cashed in each of UCLA's last seven games but I look for that streak to come to an end on Thursday as the Bruins hit the road for the first time since New Year's Day to face Arizona State in Tempe. UCLA absolutely manhandled Utah and Colorado in its last two games, holding those two opponents to just 18 and 15 made field goals, respectively. It faces a much different challenge on the road here, however, noting that Arizona State has knocked down 25, 31, 29, 33 and 24 field goals since the return of Pac-12 play on New Year's Eve. With that being said, the Sun Devils are in bounce-back mode here in some sense after getting off only 49 field goal attempts in a bit of a sloppy affair against Oregon State last time out (they still scored 74 points in that contest). We know Arizona State will be looking to push the pace here, noting that it has hoisted up 62 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last nine games. Defensively, the Sun Devils are likely to have their hands full here. They've allowed 27, 24, 25, and 24 made field goals over their last four games and have had little success (or interest) in slowing down their opponents' tempo this season. UCLA didn't shoot particularly well against Colorado last time out, knocking down only 38.1% of its attempts from the field. That's notable as the last two times it was held under 40% shooting in Pac-12 play, it responded by making good on exactly 29 field goals in its next contest. The Bruins are averaging 30 made field goals and 76.7 points per game this season with no considerable drop-off in production away from home, where they've hit 29 field goals per game (on one fewer attempt compared to their season average) while averaging 73.7 points per contest. The most recent meeting between these two teams totalled only 118 points last February, however prior to that each of the last 12 matchups in the series produced at least 143 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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01-18-23 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. This is obviously a big game for both teams but it's desperation time for Oklahoma State as it comes off three consecutive Big 12 defeats. Of note for our purposes, the Cowboys have seen each of their last seven games go 'under' the total. Oklahoma State lacks a true go-to scorer and it shows as it has been held to 67, 67, 46, 57 and 58 points in Big 12 play. The Cowboys tried to push the pace in their last two games, getting off 66 and 60 field goal attempts but only managed to knock down 22 and 23 of those shots against Kansas State and Baylor, respectively. Here, they'll face a good Oklahoma defense that's coming off a bad game. The Sooners allowed West Virginia to make good on 31-of-55 field goals in their most recent contest, allowing 76 points in a narrow one-point victory. Note that prior to that, they had held four of their last five opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Oklahoma has one of the more underrated offensive players in the country in former Nevada standout Grant Sherfield. It will be in tough here, however, noting that Oklahoma State has allowed an average of just 20 made field goals per contest at home this season and has held eight of its last 11 opponents to 21 or fewer in that department. The fact that the Cowboys allowed 74 points last time out is notable as they've given up 56, 51 and 49 points on three previous occasions after allowing more than 70 points in a game this season. Take the under (10*). |
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01-17-23 | Clemson v. Wake Forest OVER 147 | Top | 77-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Clemson and Wake Forest at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between two red hot ACC squads in Clemson and Wake Forest on Tuesday night. The Tigers are fresh off a 72-64 victory over Duke on Saturday - their seventh straight victory. They've been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, knocking down 25 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. While they've done a good job defensively as well, they've shown little ability (or interest) in slowing down their opponents' pace, allowing 63 or more field goal attempts in three of their last five games. That should open the door for a blazing hot Wake Forest offense that has made good on 28, 29, 30 and 34 field goals over its last four contests. You would have to go back seven games to find the last time the Demon Deacons were held to fewer than 77 points. Like Clemson, Wake hasn't put much of a priority on slowing the opposition, yielding an average of 61 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. Prior to Saturday's blowout win over struggling Boston College (in which it allowed just 22 made field goals), Wake had allowed eight straight opponents to knock down 26 or more field goals. Of course, this will be a rematch of a meeting between these two teams back in December. That was a strange affair as Clemson got off only 43 field goal attempts, making good on 22 of them, yet scored 77 points in a 20-point rout. Wake has rounded into form since then and I'm confident we'll see a much more competitive, entertaining affair this time around. Take the over (10*). |
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01-16-23 | Princeton v. Pennsylvania UNDER 145.5 | 72-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Princeton and Pennsylvania at 7 pm et on Monday. I like the bounce-back spot for both of these teams defensively after both were involved in 'over' results on Saturday. Princeton inexplicably allowed a middle-of-the-road Brown squad to knock down 28-of-53 field goal attempts in a 72-70 loss. That marked the first time in five games the Tigers allowed an opponent to shoot better than 42.1% from the field. Penn dropped a 75-71 decision at Dartmouth, allowing the Big Green to shoot 27-of-58 from the field. While the Quakers have knocked down 26 or more field goals in four straight games, they've also faced a fairly favorable schedule over that stretch, favored in three of those games with the other coming against the fastest-paced team in the Ivy League, Cornell. I think we're in for a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair here, noting that the most recent meeting produced 163 points in a Princeton blowout win last March, but we haven't seen consecutive meetings in this series go 'over' the total since three straight did back in 2017-18. Take the under (8*). |
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01-14-23 | Utah v. USC UNDER 135.5 | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and USC at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. I expect this game to be played at a snail's pace as Utah looks to 'ugly it up' in an effort to come away with something from this two-game road trip to Los Angeles. The Utes couldn't muster any sort of offense against the mighty Bruins of UCLA last time out and will be hard-pressed to do much better against another terrific defensive squad in USC on Saturday. The good news is, the Utes can play some defense (they rank 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom) - something we didn't necessarily see from them in the loss to UCLA. I expect Utah to step up defensively against a more manageable offensive opponent here and ultimately help keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (8*). |
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01-14-23 | Bradley v. Drake OVER 128.5 | Top | 61-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Bradley and Drake at 8 pm et on Saturday. This isn't the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament and as such I think we'll see a much looser, up-tempo game between these two conference powerhouses than what you would expect to see in March. We're talking about two of the best offensive teams in the MVC on paper. Bradley has certainly showed it over its last two games, scoring 88 and 91 points in wins over Valpo and Evansville. While the level of competition steps up here, I like the consistency Bradley has shown at the offensive end of the floor, making good on 27 or more field goals in six of its last seven games. Drake comes off of a pair of exceptional offensive performances as well, scoring 82 and 76 points in wins over Murray State and Illinois-Chicago. The most recent meeting between these two teams last February was a low-scoring affair but of note, we haven't seen consecutive 'under' results between these two teams since back in 2018-19. Take the over (10*). |
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01-14-23 | Air Force v. Fresno State OVER 123 | 51-48 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Air Force and Fresno State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I simply feel this total will prove too low given the improvement Air Force has shown offensively, combined with the porous nature of both defenses. The Falcons have quietly been lighting it up, knocking down 24 or more field goals in seven of their last eight games. They hung 85 points on the board in a double-digit win over Colorado State last time out. Meanwhile, Fresno State has been getting absolutely torched defensively, allowing 27, 29 and 31 made field goals over its last three games. However, the line dictates a close affair in favor of the hometown Bulldogs here and that's reasonable when you consider Air Force has yielded more than 70 points in four straight games, allowing six straight opponents to knock down at least 23 field goals. I think we're in for a much higher-scoring game than most expect here. Take the over (8*). |
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01-14-23 | Virginia v. Florida State OVER 131 | 67-58 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Virginia and Florida State at 4 pm et on Saturday. I don't think this is going to be the defensive slugfest that most are expecting in Tallahassee on Saturday afternoon. Virginia has been a bit different than we've come to expect this season, riding its offense a little more on the way to a 12-3 overall record. The Cavaliers enter this game having gotten into the 60's or 70's in terms of scoring in seven straight games. Florida State is in the middle of a tough campaign but has certainly played better basketball lately. The Seminoles check in having scored 73 or more points in six of their last seven contests. Florida State does continue to struggle defensively, however, yielding 28 or more made field goals in four of its last five games. Take the over (8*). |
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01-14-23 | Troy State v. Appalachian State OVER 133.5 | 45-58 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Troy and Appalachian State at 4 pm et on Saturday. I think we're in for a barn-burner between these two teams on Saturday afternoon and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Both teams average in the mid-20's in terms of three-point attempts per game. There's certainly a wide range of outcomes in this contest given Troy's defensive ability and the pace that Appalachian State plays at but I believe the most likely one is a game where both teams approach or eclipse the 70-point mark. We're being given a relatively low total to work with largely due to the fact that the Trojans come in off consecutive low-scoring 'under' results. That of course has little bearing on today's matchup in particular. Take the over (8*). |
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01-14-23 | Pennsylvania v. Dartmouth UNDER 141.5 | 71-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Penn and Dartmouth at 2 pm et on Saturday. A little too much respect being given to the Penn offense here. Dartmouth plays at a fast pace but doesn't shoot particularly well and is in line for some regression on Saturday. We've seen some high-scoring matchups between these two teams in recent years, but I don't think this will be one of them. Note that the last two meetings have seen totals posted in the 130's. I believe this number will prove too high as Penn ultimately stretches out the margin and takes the air out of the basketball in the second half. Take the under (8*). |
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01-14-23 | Wisconsin v. Indiana OVER 135.5 | Top | 45-63 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Wisconsin and Indiana at 1 pm et on Saturday. The 'over' has cashed in each of Wisconsin's last two games while Indiana has seen all three of its Big Ten contests sail 'over' the total, allowing 91, 84 and 85 points in the process. While the Badgers aren't exactly known for their offensive prowess, I do think they find the going much easier against the Hoosiers non-existent defense after facing Illinois and Michigan State in their last two games. On the flip side, it's desperation time for Indiana and at home in what is a stand-alone Big Ten matchup on Saturday afternoon, I do think we see it come to play. The Hoosiers offense hasn't necessarily been the problem, even if it is coming off a poor showing against Penn State last time out. Prior to that, Indiana had put up 89 and 83 points against Iowa and Northwestern, respectively. I think we see both teams approach or eclipse the 70-point mark in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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01-10-23 | VCU v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 137 | Top | 78-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between VCU and Loyola-Chicago at 7 pm et on Tuesday. VCU enters this showdown off three consecutive 'over' results while Loyola-Chicago has seen each of its last four contests go 'over' the total. I look for a reversal of those trends on Tuesday, however. Neither team has faced all that difficult of a schedule this season according to KenPom - both teams rank well north of 200th in the country in that department. VCU is knocking down an average of 23 field goals per game with that number dropping to 21 away from home. While Loyola-Chicago has made good on an impressive 29 field goals per contest here at home, that's had everything to do with the slate of opponents it has faced. The Ramblers have hosted Fairleigh-Dickinson, Central Arkansas, Depaul, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Albany and George Washington to date. You could certainly argue this will be their toughest defensive test to date on their home floor. Take the under (10*). |
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01-06-23 | Dartmouth v. Yale OVER 129 | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Yale at 7 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting on Friday night. Dartmouth limps into this game on the heels of six consecutive losses, not to mention six straight 'under' results. The Big Green have done little to slow the pace of the opposition, allowing an average of 61 field goal attempts per game on the season. That spells trouble as Yale likes to push the pace, having hoisted up 60 or more FG attempts in six of its last eight games and gets a chance to show out here at home for the first time since November 30th (each of its last six games were played on the road). The Bulldogs check in off consecutive 'under' results. Note that both teams present a bit of a 'shock to the system' for the opposing defenses in this one as Dartmouth gets off an average of 26 three-point attempts per game while Yale hoists up 24 shots from beyond the arc per contest, with both teams having faced an average of only 19 attempts per game in that department. Last year's matchup between these two teams on Yale's home floor totalled 141 points, despite the two teams getting off just 53 (Dartmouth) and 50 (Yale) FG attempts. You would have to go back 10 meetings here at Yale - all the way to 2012 - to find the last time these two teams combined to score fewer than 130 points in a game against one another. Take the over (10*). |
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12-28-22 | Duquesne v. Dayton OVER 131 | 57-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duquesne and Dayton at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I think Dayton is in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here after holding Wyoming and Alcorn State to fewer than 50 points in consecutive games. Duquesne has displayed a solid floor when it comes to point totals this season, scoring 66 points or more in 11 of 13 games to date. With both teams having faced similar schedules in terms of difficulty according to KenPom, you could argue that Duquesne has been the better offensive team. Defensively, the Dukes leave a lot to be desired, however, allowing three more made field goals on one less field goal attempt per game compared to the Flyers. Dayton is favored by nearly double-digits for a reason here but I do think Duquesne can at least bait it into a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). |
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12-27-22 | Jacksonville v. Notre Dame OVER 129 | Top | 43-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Notre Dame at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We won with Jacksonville in its most recent game but I think it's in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here as it travels to face Notre Dame which is in a 'sling-shot' situation after a tough three-game stretch that saw it face Marquette, Georgia and Florida State. With that being said, I don't think we see the Irish run away and hide in this one. Note that Jacksonville has impressively gone 7-3 despite facing the 32nd toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom. The Irish are actually allowing five more made field goals on only two additional shot attempts per game this season in comparison with the Dolphins. The two teams are virtually mirror images of one another offensive, from a statistical standpoint at least, in the early going this season. I expect both to find some success here and we're dealing with a reasonably low total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-22 | Bellarmine v. Evansville OVER 127.5 | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Bellarmine and Evansville at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I simply feel this total will prove too low as these two teams look to bounce back from losses suffered last time out. Bellarmine has faced one of the toughest schedules in the nation this season - 10th most difficult according to KenPom - yet still checks in a respectable 105th in the country in offensive rating. I expect it to bring a barrage of threes against a vulnerable Evansville defense here (the Purple Aces rank 276th in the nation in terms of defensive rating). Bellarmine has played at a slow pace so far this season but that's had a lot to do with the level of competition they have gone against. The Purple Aces are a short underdog for a reason here, but do have something to build on after scoring 72 and 69 points, knocking down 18 threes along the way, in their last two games. I do think they can at least keep pace here and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair as they look to go into the holiday break (they won't play again until the 29th) on a positive note. Take the over (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Creighton v. Arizona State OVER 139.5 | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Creighton and Arizona State at 9 pm et on Monday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring slugfest last year as Arizona State pulled off a stunner by a score of 58-57. I expect nothing of the sort in terms of pace here, noting that the high-flying Blue Jays were limited to only 54 field goal attempts in that defeat last year. Their low-water mark in that department this season is 53 but that came in a game where they scored 90 points in a win over Arkansas. I think the question here is whether the Sun Devils can get theirs offensively and I'm confident they can given the way Creighton's opponents have been stuffing the boxscore. The Blue Jays check in having yielded 30 or more made field goals in four of their last five games. Creighton is certainly in line for some positive regression offensively here. After knocking down 31+ field goals in four of its first six games this season it has been held to 27 or fewer made field goals in four straight contests. While Arizona State has been locked in defensively, I think it's in for a 'shock to the system' here against Creighton's shooting barrage. Take the over (8*). |
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12-09-22 | Washington v. Gonzaga OVER 149 | 60-77 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Friday. Off a stretch that saw it face Purdue, Xavier and Baylor in succession perhaps Gonzaga can be excused for an less-than-inspiring performance against Kent State last time out. Off consecutive 'under' results, I'm anticipating a much stronger offensive showing from the Bulldogs on Friday. Washington's opponents have shot a woeful 39.3% from the field this season. Some of that has to do with strong defensive play from the Huskies but part of it is simply related to luck. With that said, Washington has still allowed five of its last seven opponents to make good on 24 or more field goals. The Huskies have shown no ability, or interest to dictate their opponents' pace and I'm confident Gonzaga can take full advantage of that on Friday. For their part, the Bulldogs allowed 64 and 66 points in their last two games, despite those two opponents shooting sub-40% from the field. While Washington's offensive ceiling isn't all that high, its floor is at a solid level, noting that the Huskies have made good on 25 or more field goals in five of their last eight contests, held to a low-water mark of 62 points on the season. Take the over (8*). |
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12-08-22 | Colorado State v. Colorado UNDER 143.5 | 65-93 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and Colorado at 9 pm et on Thursday. Colorado has faced the 25th toughest schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom and while this matchup with Colorado State looks daunting when you consider the Rams have scored 80+ points in three straight and five of nine games this season, it's important to note that CSU has faced a cupcake schedule (311th toughest in the nation according to KenPom) and is certainly in line for some regression from the field having shot just shy of 50% on the campaign. Colorado has actually allowed just two more made field goals per game (25) compared to Colorado State this season. The Buffaloes have had to play keep-up much of the way, knocking down 26 field goals per contest (that's two fewer than CSU on average, on four more attempts per game). Both of these teams have seen the opposition make good on better than 70% of their free throw attempts - not a sustainable average in my opinion. This has generally been a series played in the 120's and 130's, although the two teams haven't met since the 2019-20 season. I believe this total will prove too high on Thursday. Take the under (8*). |
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12-07-22 | Brown v. Rhode Island UNDER 131 | 59-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brown and Rhode Island at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Brown should have Rhode Island's undivided attention for this game as the Bears come off four straight wins, shooting 52% or better from the field in their last two contests. Keep in mind, the Rams are coming off an 88-74 loss to Providence in which the Friars shot a blistering 54% from the field. There have essentially been three games where Rhode Island's opponents have shot the lights out this season, that most recent affair against Providence being one of them. Apart from that, the Rams have been tough defensively and I do think this is a matchup they can handle. Both teams sit around the middle of the pack in terms of tempo with Rhode Island checking in 184th and Brown just behind at 187th. Playing at home, I do think we see the Rams dictate the pace here and they certainly won't want to let Brown get out and run after getting boat-raced by Providence last time out (the Friars got off 63 field goal attempts in that game - only the second time Rhode Island allowed an opponent to hoist up more than 56 FG attempts this season). Take the under (8*). |
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12-02-22 | Campbell v. East Carolina OVER 133.5 | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Campbell and East Carolina at 7 pm et on Friday. East Carolina checks into this game off back-to-back losses, held under 70 points in both contests after opening the season by scoring 75+ points in six straight games. Pirates opponents have been 'filling it up' so far this season, with six of eight foes having made good on 26 or more field goals, six of eight opponents have also scored more than 70 points. We will give the Pirates due respect in this bounce-back spot, however, confident that they can at least keep up with the Campbell Tigers in the role of short home favorite. Campbell successfully rebounded from its worst offensive showing of the season by exploding for 87 points last time out against Stetson. While Stetson's break-neck pace had a lot to do with that high-scoring result, it's not as if East Carolina will be looking to slow it down either. The problem is, the Tigers have been ultra-efficient offensively, knocking down the same number of field goals per game (24) as ECU despite six fewer attempts while making good on just one less three-pointer per contest, also on eight fewer attempts. Both of these teams get to the free throw line with consistency as Campbell averages 22 FT attempts per contest and ECU checks in averaging 23. The last time these two squads met in 2019 they combined to score 146 points. While the personnel has obviously changed, I'm anticipating a similar result here. Take the over (8*). |
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11-19-22 | Providence v. Miami-FL UNDER 141.5 | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Providence and Miami at 4 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been made to look very good offensively over the last couple of games but that's had everything to do with the level of competition they've faced. Here, we'll note that neither team has allowed an opponent to get off 60+ field goal attempts through three games this season. We've also seen some good discipline out of both teams defensively, with Providence yielding just 10 free throw attempts per game and Miami checking in allowing 13. In what projects as a tightly-contested affair with Miami favored by just a couple of points, I'll back the 'under' in Uncasville on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (8*). |
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11-18-22 | Baylor v. Virginia UNDER 133.5 | Top | 79-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. We've seen the 'over' go a combined 5-0 in these two teams' first five games but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Las Vegas on Friday. While Baylor's offense has garnered most of the attention, it has quietly been in midseason form defensively as well. The Bears check in having allowed just 49, 48 and 56 field goal attempts through three games. Yes, they've faced inferior competition but it's not as if today's opponent, Virginia, will be looking to really push the pace offensively. The Cavaliers have scored 73 and 89 points in winning their first two games, also against inferior competition, but have hoisted up just 47 and 54 field goal attempts. They quite simply shot the lights out against Monmouth last time out, leading to their highest-scoring performance of the young season. Like Baylor, Virginia has been locked-in defensively, holding its first two opponents to only 53 and 41 FG attempts. Both teams have been lighting it up from three-point range while also getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. That changes as they both step up in class in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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11-15-22 | Michigan State v. Kentucky UNDER 141.5 | 86-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan State and Kentucky at 7 pm et on Tuesday. There's no question which way I'm going with the total in this early season showdown between the Spartans and Wildcats. The 'under' has combined to go 3-1 in these two teams' first four games this season and there's little reason to anticipate a reversal of that trend here. Kentucky has been 'filling it up' through two games, knocking down 34 and 28 field goals in blowout wins over Howard and Duquesne - both at Rupp Arena no less. It isn't likely to enjoy the same type of success here, however, noting that Michigan State just got done holding Gonzaga to only 23 made field goals in a tough 64-63 loss on Friday. Speaking of that game, the Spartans could only muster 21 made field goals against the Zags and now deal with a Kentucky defense that limited its first two opponents to just 43-of-133 shooting, despite the lopsided nature of those two aforementioned contests. Noting that the 'under' is a long-term 110-79 with Michigan State playing on a neutral court and 13-2 the last 15 times Kentucky has come off a double-digit home victory, as is the case here, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Tuesday. Take the under (8*). |
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11-12-22 | UMass Lowell v. Rutgers UNDER 136 | 65-73 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UMass-Lowell and Rutgers at 2 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams shot the lights out in their most recent game with UMass-Lowell crushing Columbia 89-62 and Rutgers rolling to an 88-50 rout of Sacred Heart (we won with the Scarlet Knights in that game). Note that Rutgers got off 'only' 60 field goal attempts in Thursday's win after hoisting up 72 in its season-opener against a defense-less Columbia squad. The Scarlet Knights have absolutely manhandled their first two opponents defensively, limiting them to 47 and 53 field goal attempts. UMass-Lowell has thrived from beyond the arc through two games, averaging 10 made three-pointers per contest. Rutgers, however, has limited its first two opponents to a grand total of six made threes. Like Rutgers, UMass-Lowell has also played with some defensive intensity in the early going this season, yielding just 18 and 19 made field goals to its first two opponents. After turning the basketball over 21 times last time out and facing a Rutgers defense that has forced 50 turnovers through two games, I can't help but think UMass-Lowell's number one priority in this one will simply be hanging on to the basketball, ultimately leading to plenty of shot clock-draining possessions. Take the under (8*). |
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11-07-22 | Hofstra v. Princeton OVER 151 | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Hofstra and Princeton at 7:30 pm et on Monday. These two teams met last season with Hofstra prevailing by a score of 81-77. That was a game that saw just 21 made three-pointers and only 15 free throw attempts. Both teams have some talent to replace this season - Princeton in particular with three starters from last year's team having moved on. The cupboard is by no means bare, however. Hofstra adds Tyler Thomas from Sacred Heart, where he averaged over 19 points per game last season and could challenge Aaron Estrada for CAA Player of the Year - an award won by Estrada in 2021-22. While we're dealing with a higher posted total in this matchup than we saw in last year's meeting, I don't believe it will prove to be high enough. Note that the 'over' is 25-10 in Hofstra's last 35 games as a road underdog of three points or less, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 153.4 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 10-2 in Princeton's last 12 non-conference tilts, also averaging a total of 153.4 points in those contests. Take the over (8*). |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas UNDER 152.5 | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Kansas at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We won with our big play on the 'over' in North Carolina's thrilling 81-77 win over Duke in the Final Four on Saturday. Kansas also saw its rout of Villanova sail 'over' the total. I believe both results are setting us up with an inflated total on Monday, keeping in mind both teams entered the Final Four on the heels of consecutive 'under' results. We can't anticipate Kansas to go off from three-point range again on Monday the way it did on Saturday. The Jayhawks made good on 13-of-24 attempts from beyond the arc in that contest but average just 6-of-18 from three-point range away from home this season. We also can't count on North Carolina to get to the free throw line 24 times the way it did against Duke (Kansas yields opponents just 17 free throw attempts per game this season). The Jayhawks have done a tremendous job defensively, allowing 23 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine games overall with the 'under' cashing in five of those nine games. It's worth noting that this is the highest posted total we've seen in any of Kansas' last 10 contests, by a considerable margin (the next highest was 145.5). While both teams are certainly capable of 'filling it up' the fact is neither has topped 29 made field goals in any of their last four games, respectively. In fact, the Tar Heels have knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in regulation time in four consecutive games. Kansas has made good on 29 field goals in consecutive games after being held to just 27 and 22 against Creighton and Providence. Take the under (8*). |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke OVER 151 | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. This will be the third meeting between these rivals this season with the previous two both sailing 'over' the total we're working with on Saturday. Given the way both teams have played leading up to and in this tournament, barring one of both sides going ice cold shooting the ball, I see no other way to go but the 'over' again here in their much-anticipated Final Four showdown. We missed with the 'over' in the Tar Heels most recent game - a 69-49 rout of an overmatched St. Peter's squad last Sunday. The Peacocks actually got off 60 field goal attempts in that game but knocked down only 18 of them in the blowout loss. North Carolina has now yielded its opponents 73, 81 (OT game against Baylor), 62 and 60 FG attempts in four games in this tournament. Prior to its Elite Eight matchup, UNC had allowed 25+ made field goals in eight of its last nine games. On the flip side, the Tar Heels have made good on 25+ field goals in eight of their last nine games overall. While not all of their recent opponents have shot well, the Blue Devils have essentially been a 'swinging door' defensively, allowing 62+ field goal attempts in eight consecutive games. Seven of their last eight opponents have knocked down 26+ field goals with the 'over' going 6-1-1 over that stretch. Of course, from an offensive standpoint, few are doing it better than the Blue Devils right now as they've made good on 30, 32, 28 and 29 field goals in their first four games in this tournament. Duke has scored 78+ points in nine of its last 10 games overall. Its lone 'under' result over that stretch came in a game where its opening round opponents in this tourney, Cal-State Fullerton, shot a woeful 24-of-64 from the field. With UNC allowing 65 field goal attempts per game away from home this season, not to mention eight made threes per contest, I believe the door is open for Duke to set the pace on Saturday. Meanwhile, we haven't seen UNC's best offensively over the last couple of games but we know its capable of keeping up here, noting that it scored a whopping 95 points in a stunning victory in Coach K's final game at Cameron Indoor back on March 5th. Take the over (10*). |
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04-01-22 | Fresno State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 126.5 | 85-74 | Win | 100 | 34 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Fresno State and Coastal Carolina at 6 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results in the semi-finals of this tournament but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Thursday's final. The pace was actually there for 'over' results in both semi-final contests. Fresno State did its part, knocking down 50% of its field goal attempts to put up 67 points but its opponent, Southern Utah, couldn't hit anything, making good on just 19-of-61 field goal attempts in a 19-point loss. Part of that obviously had to do with Fresno State's defense, but sometimes the shots simply aren't falling as well. The fact that Southern Utah was able to get off 66 attempts encourages me to play the 'over' here as I certainly don't expect Coastal Carolina to shoot as poorly. The Chanticleers check in having made good on 27, 21, 23, 28, 24, 22, 25, 33 and 28 field goals (you get the picture - consistency is what we're looking for) over their last nine games with the 'over' going 5-3-1 over that stretch. Coastal Carolina allowed South Alabama to get off 66 FG attempts in the semis. Five of the Chanticleers last seven opponents have hoisted up 58+ FG attempts with four of those teams scoring at least 68 points. Take the over (8*). |
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03-29-22 | St Bonaventure v. Xavier OVER 142 | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 127 h 30 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Bonaventure and Xavier at 10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in Xavier's most recent game - a 75-73 NIT quarter-final victory over Vanderbilt. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Musketeers take on St. Bonaventure in NIT semi-final action on Tuesday. Xavier continues to allow the opposition to get off plenty of scoring opportunities, yielding 60, 65, 64, 60, 64 and 59 field goal attempts over its last six games. St. Bonaventure figures to take advantage of those opportunities, noting that it has knocked down 30, 24, 29, 27 and 20 field goals over its last five games with the outlier being a defensive slugfest against one of the slowest-paced and defensively-elite teams in the country in Virginia last time out. The Bonnies have generally done a nice job of limiting their opponents opportunities, allowing fewer than 60 FG attempts in 12 straight games heading into this one. However, they'll have their hands full with Xavier. The Musketeers check in having made good on 35, 33, 24, 26 and 27 field goals over their last five contests, most recently thriving in the second half of their win over Vandy. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Xavier was held to fewer than 72 points. In a game where I expect the pace to tick up a bit, I'm confident both offenses can continue to thrive and this total will quite simply prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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03-28-22 | Southern Utah v. Fresno State OVER 135.5 | Top | 48-67 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
The Basketball Classic Third Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Southern Utah and Fresno State at 10 pm et on Monday. Fresno State has looked like a different team in this tournament, making good on 28 and 27 field goals while scoring 80+ points in both games. Perhaps getting out of the defensive-minded Mountain West Conference was just what the doctor ordered. Here, the Bulldogs draw another vulnerable defensive opponent in Southern Utah. The Jaguars have consistently allowed between 23-28 made field goals per contest over the last month. On the flip side, Southern Utah has been scoring with the best of them, knocking down 27, 28, 25, 28, 32 and 29 field goals over its last six contests. Fresno State played lights out defensive basketball earlier in the season but that hasn't really been the case lately. The Bulldogs have yielded 26, 20, 26 and 23 made field goals over their last four games, despite a relatively slow pace. Here, we can anticipate the Jaguars forcing the issue a little more than Fresno's recent opponents, noting that they've averaged 27-for-61 shooting away from home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-27-22 | St. Peter's v. North Carolina OVER 136.5 | 49-69 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Peter's and North Carolina at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' (barely) in St. Peter's upset win over Purdue on Friday. That game just about got to the posted total but ultimately fell just short, largely due to the pace simply not being there. Here, I expect a different story to unfold. North Carolina continues to push the pace at every opportunity, getting off 60+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. Of course, the Tar Heels continue to make the most of their scoring opportunities, knocking down 28+ field goals in six of their last eight contests. On the flip side, they're also affording their opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, allowing 73, 81 and 62 FG attempts through their first three tournament games. Their last four opponents have made good on 25, 26, 28 and 28 field goals with all four of those opponents scoring at least 63 points. While St. Peter's certainly isn't known for its offense, it has scored 64+ points in five of its last six contests. That's despite playing at a very slow pace. Defensively, the Peacocks are terrific, but we have seen Kentucky and Purdue at least find some success, and they'll undoubtedly have their hands full with a Tar Heels offense that is peaking at the right time. Take the over (9*). |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas v. Duke UNDER 147.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NCAA Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Thursday's Arkansas-Gonzaga game wasn't a typical one for the Razorbacks. They average 60 field goal attempts per game away from home this season and had gotten off 57 or fewer in four straight games prior to that contest. Yet they ended up hoisting up 72 field goal attempts, making good only only 29 of them, in that stunning upset victory. On the flip side, they also allowed the Zags to get off 64 FG attempts - well north of the 57 FG attempts they yield on average away from home this season. It's not the way Hogs head coach Eric Musselman wants this game to play out on Saturday against the red hot Blue Devils, I'm sure of that. Duke has shot better than 51% in each of its first three games in this tournament. Interestingly, it has actually attempted 58 or fewer field goals in all three contests. I'm not expecting anything to come easy for the Blue Devils on offense here. Note that Arkansas has held six of its last seven opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. With that being said, there is seemingly a 'ceiling' for the Arkansas offense. Even with 70+ FG attempts against Gonzaga it still managed to make good on just 29 field goals. Prior to that it had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. The Hogs have of course made their living at the free throw line this season but it is worth mentioning that the Blue Devils send opponents to the charity stripe just 12 times per game. With the Blue Devils coming off consecutive 'over' results (we cashed with the 'over' in both games), I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-22 | Iowa State v. Miami-FL OVER 131.5 | 56-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa State and Miami at 9:55 pm et on Friday. The 'under' has cashed in both the first and second round for both of these teams in this tournament. In fact, the last 'over' result for Miami came in a game where we were on that side of the total in an 80-76 loss to Duke in the ACC tournament. I'll go back to the well here, noting that this is the lowest total we've seen in a game involving the Hurricanes in this tournament, by a considerable margin. Miami isn't likely to allow Iowa State to dictate the (slow) pace the way it did in its first two tournament games against LSU and Wisconsin. The Hurricanes have consistently been getting (and making) their shots for weeks now. They check in having knocked down 27+ field goals in 12 of their last 13 games. The lone outlier came in the opener of this tournament against USC - a contest that got off to an incredibly slow start before both teams heated up in the second half (we just missed with the 'over' in that game). On the flip side, Miami is certainly fortunate that Auburn wasn't able to hit anything in its second round matchup, as it did yield the Tigers a whopping 69 field goal attempts. The Canes can't count on the Cyclones shooting as poorly as they did in their first two tourney games (they made just 20 field goals in each contest - shooting sub-36% in both games). Note that entering this tournament, Iowa State had allowed 28, 25, 22, 26, 20, 21, 25, 20, 23, 26 and 28 made field goals over its last 11 games (I know you get the picture but sometimes seeing the numbers visually is better). None of those numbers are earth-shattering, but my point is, the Cyclones haven't been completely locking opponents down defensively. I am confident Iowa State can contribute enough offensively to help this total along, noting that Miami ranks 121st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, according to KenPom. The Canes check in having allowed opponents to make good on 26-of-56 field goal attempts per game including eight made threes per contest away from home this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-25-22 | St. Peter's v. Purdue OVER 133 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
NCAA Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Peter's and Purdue at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen this total drop since opening as it seems bettors have little faith in St. Peter's to keep it rolling against Purdue. The Peacocks have certainly impressed through two tournament games, scoring 85 points in a win over Kentucky (aided by overtime - they scored 71 points in regulation time) and then 70 points in a double-digit victory over Murray State. Even though the game against Kentucky went to overtime, the Peacocks still made good on 27-of-54 field goal attempts in regulation time. Here, they're likely to be afforded a whole lot more scoring opportunities, noting that Purdue has yielded 61, 60, 59, 69, 61, 63 and 68 field goal attempts over its last seven games. The Boilermakers allow an average of 61 FG attempts per game away from home this season. Not only that, but the opposition has knocked down an average of nine three-pointers per game against the Boilers away from their home gym. My point is, there's going to be a path for the Peacocks to score a reasonable number of points and keep this game competitive - which lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Of course, little needs to be said about the Purdue offense. The Boilers currently rank first in the nation in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. While St. Peter's has been terrific defensively, coming from the MAAC it's no surprise that its slate of opponents ranks 185th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. This is a considerable step up in class, noting that the Peacocks allowed Kentucky to make good on 26-of-61 field goal attempts in the opening round of this tournament (again, aided by overtime). Earlier in the season, St. Peter's faced a couple of opponents in the same vein as Purdue, with those contests totalling 161 points against St. John's and 156 points against Providence - another team that's still dancing in this tournament. I mentioned that Purdue has yielded plenty of FG attempts on a game-by-game basis but it has also allowed 26+ made field goals in seven of its last nine games. Both teams have shown the ability to get to the free throw line with St. Peter's averaging 20 field goal attempts per game while also sending opponents to the line 22 times per contest. Purdue averages 22 trips to the charity stripe per game. Take the over (10*). |
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03-24-22 | Houston v. Arizona OVER 145 | 72-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Arizona at 9:59 pm et on Thursday. This is the highest total in a game involving Houston since way back on December 11th when it faced Alabama - a game that totalled 165 points. I believe it's warranted. While Arizona's offense will get most of the hype leading into this matchup, it's worth noting that Houston has made good on 25+ field goals in 13 of its last 16 games, eclipsing the 30 field goal mark in six of those games. Here, the Cougars will likely be involved a much faster-paced game than they're used to, but I don't think we'll see them shy away from an up-tempo affair. Arizona has yielded 62, 69, 69 and 74 field goal attempts over its last four games and 60+ FG attempts in 21 of their last 25 contests overall. Of course, as I alluded to, the Wildcats are capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard on any given night. They've racked up 26+ made field goals in eight straight games, reaching the 30 mark five times over that stretch. Yes, Houston is an elite defensive team. That being said, it hasn't faced many teams like Arizona this season. In fact, the Cougars rank 92nd in the country in terms of opponents' average adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Take the over (6*). |
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03-24-22 | Texas Tech v. Duke OVER 137 | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas Tech and Duke at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Duke's most recent game - an 85-76 win over Michigan State in the round of 32 last Sunday. That game got into the 160's despite about a four-minute stretch in the first half where neither the Blue Devils or Spartans could hit a shot. Few teams are playing at the same level as Duke offensively right now, maybe Gonzaga and Arizona would fit in that category. The Blue Devils have made good on 35, 32, 34, 32, 29, 24, 30 and 32 field goals in their last eight games. However, at the other end of the floor they've yielded 64+ field goal attempts in six straight games. I realize Texas Tech doesn't play at a fast pace - far from it, in fact. But I do think the Red Raiders will have plenty of opportunity to get loose offensively in this one. Note that Texas Tech has managed to knock down 28, 21, 27, 36 and 21 field goals in its last five games so some consistency to rely on there. With that being said, the Red Raiders shot just 21-of-59 last time out against Notre Dame. Keep in mind, they've averaged right around 27 made field goals per game after being held to 21 or fewer made field goals in their previous game this season (nine-game sample size). The question here really becomes whether the Duke offense can keep rolling against an elite Texas Tech defense. I'm confident it can, noting that while Texas Tech yields just 21-of-55 shooting away from home this season, it has given up eight made threes per contest, an area where the Blue Devils can thrive. Also consider we're dealing with a reasonably low total here - the lowest in a Duke game since it faced Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game - a contest that totalled 149 points. Take the over (8*). |
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03-22-22 | Vanderbilt v. Xavier OVER 143 | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Vanderbilt and Xavier at 9 pm et on Tuesday. While the pace has certainly been there, Xavier has seen its first two NIT matchups stay 'under' the total. I look for that to change on Tuesday as they host Vanderbilt in quarter-final action. The Musketeers game against Florida on Sunday certainly looked on track to fly 'over' the total early but Florida settled into a scoring drought and never really recovered, ultimately making good on just 21-of-64 field goal attempts in a 72-56 Xavier win. Now we're being offered the lowest total we've seen in Xavier's three NIT games and I believe it will prove too low. The Musketeers have yielded 60+ FG attempts in five straight and nine of their last 11 games overall. The 'over' has cashed at a 7-4 clip over that stretch. We know Vandy is comfortable pushing the pace, noting that it has hoisted up 62+ FG attempts in four of its last five contests. In the only game where it didn't it still managed to score in the 80's against Alabama. On the flip side, the Commodores have yielded 67, 61, 60 and 56 FG attempts themselves over their last four games. Opponents have generally been 'filling it up' against them, knocking down 24, 30, 27 and 26 field goals over those four contests with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0 along the way. For its part, Xavier checks in having made good on 35, 33, 24 and 26 field goals over its last four games, scoring 72+ points in all four games. We don't need a track meet to cash this ticket but I do think we'll see a relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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03-21-22 | USC Upstate v. South Alabama UNDER 142 | 79-83 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between USC Upstate and South Alabama at 8 pm et on Monday. USC Upstate enters this contest off consecutive 'over' results while South Alabama saw its opening round matchup stay 'under' the total. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most. The visiting Spartans stunned heavily-favored Appalachian State to get to this game. In that contest, they knocked down 30-of-66 field goals - two numbers I don't expect them to approach against an incredibly stingy South Alabama squad on Monday. Note that the Jaguars have held opponents to an average of 21-of-56 shooting at home this season, including just six made three-pointers per game. On the flip side, South Alabama managed to put up 70 points in a narrow win over Southeast Louisiana in its tournament opener. Of course, it needed 61 field goal attempts to get there, making good on 28 of them. Note that the Jaguars don't generally look to push the pace. Prior to their last game, you would have to go all the way back to January 6th to find the last time they hoisted up more than 58 FG attempts in a game. Meanwhile, USC Upstate has held three of its last five opponents to 54 or fewer FG attempts. The only two opponents to top that mark over that stretch only managed to make good on 24 and 20 of those attempts. Take the under (8*). |
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03-20-22 | Michigan State v. Duke OVER 142.5 | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 32 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Michigan State and Duke at 5:15 pm et on Sunday. Michigan State saw its NCAA Tournament opener sail 'over' the total while Duke had its six-game 'over' streak come to an end in its rout of Cal-State Fullerton. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring second round affair between the Spartans and Blue Devils. Both offenses can absolutely 'fill it up' with Michigan State having made good on 27+ field goals in six of its last eight games and Duke knocking down 29+ field goals in six of its last seven contests. On the flip side, neither defense has really shown the ability or interest in slowing the pace, with MSU allowing 61, 64, 60, 57 and 59 field goal attempts over its last five games and Duke yielding 64+ FG attempts in each of its last five contests. The opportunities to run this score up should certainly be there on Sunday, noting that the Spartans allow an average of 59 FG attempts per game away from home with the Blue Devils yielding an average of 62 away from Cameron Indoor Stadium. The only thing keeping me from going to a higher rating is the fact that both teams are fairly disciplined and we're unlikely to see a parade to the free throw line at any point in this one. Take the over (9*). |
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03-20-22 | Florida v. Xavier OVER 144 | 56-72 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Xavier at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in Xavier's NIT opener against Cleveland State. We probably deserved a better fate as the pace was certainly there to get that one 'over' the total. Xavier continues to push the pace at every opportunity, hoisting up 60+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. The Musketeers simply had an off night shooting the ball against Cleveland State, noting that they made good on just 24-of-62 FG attempts. Keep in mind, prior to that, Xavier had knocked down 33 and 35 field goals over its last two contests. Here, it will face a Florida squad that has allowed 29, 27, 30, 28, 24 and 29 field goals over its last six games. Not surprisingly, the 'over' has gone 5-1 over that stretch. Like Xavier, Florida continues to force the issue offensively, getting off 60+ FG attempts in four of its last five contests. The Gators have made good on 25+ field goals in six straight games. Xavier has certainly allowed the opposition to 'fill it up' lately, yielding 27+ made field goals in seven of its last eight games. Take the over (9*). |
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03-19-22 | New Orleans v. Portland OVER 153.5 | 73-94 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams will be looking to get out and run in their Basketball Classic opener on Saturday night. New Orleans hoisted up 62+ field goals in four of their last five games heading into this tournament. The Privateers bowed out of the Southland Conference Tournament thanks to a brutal shooting performance against Southeast Louisiana. I certainly expect them to bounce back here, noting that they knocked down 28+ field goals in six of their last eight contests. Here, they'll be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a Portland squad that allowed 27, 24, 36, 23 and 31 made field goals over its last five games, showing no ability or interest in controlling their opponents tempo down the stretch. The Pilots have allowed 10 of their last 12 opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Offensively, we saw Portland round into form down the stretch, making good on 34, 29, 24, 35, 27 and 25 field goals over its last six contests. Here at home this season, the Pilots make an average of 27 field goals per game including eight from beyond the arc, while also getting to the free throw line 22 times per contest. New Orleans should offer little in the way of resistance, allowing 28, 30, 26, 31, 25 and 26 field goals over its last six games. Away from home this season, the Privateers have yielded 28-of-62 shooting on average, including eight made threes per game. Like Portland, New Orleans also lived at the free throw line for much of the season, particularly away from home where it averages 25 free throw attempts per game. Take the over (8*). |
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03-19-22 | Richmond v. Providence OVER 134 | Top | 51-79 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Richmond and Providence at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams saw their opening round games stay 'under' the total and as a result we're dealing with a reasonably low total here. Richmond has actually seen consecutive 'unders', even if the pace in yesterday's upset win over Iowa would have usually dictated an 'over' result. The Spiders were certainly fortunate to catch Iowa on an off day shooting-wise, perhaps suffering from a letdown following its Big Ten Tournament championship run. The Hawkeyes got off 66 field goal attempts against Richmond but could only knock down 24 of them. It was a similar story in the A-10 Tournament final as Davidson shot 19-of-51 against the Spiders. Here, I'm anticipating a better shooting performance from Providence. The Friars had a poor day shooting the basketball yesterday as well, not all that surprising as teams adjust to playing in new venues in the tournament's opening weekend. Providence did hoist up 61 FG attempts but made good on just 24 of them. Note that prior to that, the Friars had seen each of their last four games in which they attempted 60+ field goals go 'over' the total. Going back to February 15th, Providence has attempted 62, 60, 68, 59, 56, 54, 65 and 61 field goals so it has certainly been making an effort to push the tempo. Like the Spiders, the Friars benefited from yesterday's opponent - normally explosive South Dakota State - shooting a woeful 22-of-57 from the field. Providence has yielded plenty of scoring opportunities in recent games, allowing 79, 59, 57, 61, 57 and 57 FG attempts over its last six contests. It's certainly worth noting that yesterday's game against the Jackrabbits also featured just 21 free throw attempts. The Spiders and Friars combine to average 39 free throw attempts per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-22 | Michigan v. Tennessee UNDER 136.5 | 76-68 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan and Tennessee at 5:15 pm et on Saturday. Michigan enters this game off three consecutive 'over' results while Tennessee posted an 'over' result of its own in its tournament-opening blowout win over Longwood. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as the two power programs match up in round two. Tennessee should be able to frustrate the Michigan offense here, noting that the Vols have limited three of their last four opponents to 52 or fewer field goal attempts. Over that stretch they've given up just 19, 22, 16 and 20 made field goals. On the season, Tennessee yields just 22 made field goals per game away from home including only six made threes per contest. While Michigan ended up scoring 75 points in its tournament-opening win over Colorado State, it only got there thanks to shooting the lights out. The Wolverines actually only managed to get off 48 FG attempts in that contest. It was a similar story for the Vols, as they attempted 55 field goals against Longwood, making good on 33 of them. That certainly hasn't been the norm for Tennessee, however, noting that it has made good on 24 or fewer field goals in seven of its last 11 games overall. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Vols attempted 60+ field goals, and even in that contest they only managed to knock down 27. Take the under (8*). |
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03-19-22 | Western Illinois v. UTEP OVER 144 | Top | 54-80 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 45 m | Show |
The Basketball Classic Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Western Illinois and UTEP at 3 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter this tournament off 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold when they match up on Saturday afternoon. Western Illinois is one of the fastest-paced teams in the country, particularly away from home where it averages a whopping 66 field goal attempts per game. That's a stark contrast to what UTEP is accustomed to facing. I also feel the Miners could be in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here given WIU averages 10 more three-point attempts per game than UTEP has faced this season. While I do consider the Miners to be a quality defensive team, they weren't at their best down the stretch, allowing 23+ made field goals in each of their last seven games, despite playing at a reasonably slow pace (only one of their opponents over that stretch got off 60+ FG attempts and that game against Old Dominion went 'over' the total by double-digits). Of course, WIU is one of the weaker defensive teams in the nation. It checks in having allowed seven of its last 10 opponents to make good on 30+ field goals with the 'over' going 6-4 over that stretch. UTEP actually rounded into form offensively down the stretch, knocking down 25, 29, 22, 28 and 24 field goals over its last five contests. Again, that's more impressive when you consider the slow pace the Miners generally play at (they attempted more than 57 field goals just once over that five-game stretch). I'm not convinced the opening round of 'The Basketball Classic' is the time and place for a defensive slugfest. I'm anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-22 | North Carolina v. Baylor UNDER 149 | 93-86 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Baylor at 12:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in North Carolina's first game of this tournament - a stunning rout of Marquette on Thursday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Tar Heels face a much tougher challenge in the form of the defending national champion Baylor Bears. Baylor has allowed 28 or fewer made field goals in nine straight games. The only opponent to reach that 28 mark was Iowa State and that game still totalled only 143 points. Note that Baylor checks in having held its last three opponents to just 59, 51 and 57 field goal attempts. North Carolina shot the lights out against Marquette, making good on 34-of-74 FG attempts. It went off from three-point range in particular but now goes up against a Bears squad that guards the perimeter fiercely, allowing only six made threes per contest away from home this season. The Bears knocked down 31-of-54 FG attempts in their NCAA Tournament opener against Norfolk State. Note that prior to that they had made good on 28 or fewer field goals in eight straight contests. For its part, North Carolina has allowed 27 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 11 games overall and also sends opponents to the free throw line only 15 times per game away from home this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-18-22 | Miami-FL v. USC OVER 139.5 | 68-66 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and USC at 3:10 pm et on Friday. While it met its demise at the hands of Duke in the ACC Tournament semi-final round, there's no denying Miami heads into this tournament playing well, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. In fact, you'd be hard-pressed to find another team performing as efficiently offensively heading in. Going back to February 12th, the Canes have knocked down 28+ made field goals in nine consecutive games. Not surprisingly, the 'over' cashed in six of those nine contests. On the flip side, Miami has allowed four of its last five opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. The Canes have shown no ability or interest in controlling their opponents' tempo and yielded 28+ made field goals in four of their last five contests. USC got bogged down a bit in the Pac-12 Tournament, seeing its two games stay 'under' the total. The Trojans have yielded 60+ FG attempts in eight of their last 10 games and unlike a lot of their opponents in the Pac-12, the Canes figure to take advantage here. USC wasn't able to get out and run as much as it would have liked to in its last few games but we know that it can, and Miami should afford it that opportunity here. Prior to a poor performance against a terrific UCLA defense, the Trojans had made good on 33, 26, 27, 25 and 25 field goals over their previous five contests. Take the over (9*). |
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03-18-22 | Delaware v. Villanova UNDER 133.5 | 60-80 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Delaware and Villanova at 2:45 pm et on Friday. Delaware heads into this tournament on a five-game 'under' streak while Villanova has posted three consecutive 'under' results. I expect that trend to continue here. The Blue Hens may have ran the table in the CAA Tournament but you could argue that they limp into the NCAA Tournament from an offensive standpoint. You would have to go back to February 24th to find the last time they knocked down more than 26 field goals in a game. That was an outlier game that totalled a whopping 195 points against Charleston. All told, Delaware made good on 24 or fewer field goals in six of its last eight games. While the Blue Hens offense has lagged with the games getting tougher, their defensive has thrived. They check in having allowed 23 or fewer field goals in seven of their last nine contests. In fact, they've yielded fewer than 60 field goal attempts in six of their last seven games. Given the way Villanova plays, this one could very well have an 'old school basketball' kind of feel. The Wildcats have allowed 24, 26, 25, 20, 27, 22 and 19 made field goals over their last seven games, giving up 66 points or less in five of those contests. While Villanova can be an effective, efficient offensive team, it hasn't been lately, making good on 21, 23, 30, 20, 23 and 19 field goals over its last six games. It got off 57 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. I'm not convinced that Delaware is the team to really allow the Wildcats to open things up, nor do I think 'Nova is all that interested in that type of affair here. Take the under (8*). |
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03-17-22 | Marquette v. North Carolina OVER 151.5 | Top | 63-95 | Win | 100 | 76 h 35 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Marquette and North Carolina at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams lost out in their respective conference tournaments in games that stayed 'under' the total. In the case of North Carolina, it heads into the NCAA Tournament off consecutive 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold as they meet up in the first round of the tournament on Thursday afternoon. Marquette has certainly endured an uneven season to this point but one thing we know is that the Golden Eagles can 'fill it up', having made good on 30, 35, 23, 32, 29 and 23 field goals over their last six games despite not all of those games being played at all that fast of a pace. Here, we are likely to see an up-tempo affair and I'm confident the Eagles can thrive in that type of environment. Of concern, however, is the fact that Marquette has been lit up for 28+ made field goals in four of its last five contests, with no ability whatsoever to dictate their opponents' tempo over that stretch, allowing Depaul and St. John's in particular to get off 67 and 70 field goal attempts, respectively. Put the Tar Heels into that sort of contest and they'll undoubtedly hang a crooked number on the scoreboard here. North Carolina went down swinging in the ACC Tournament, attempting 60 field goals but simply not hitting nearly enough in its loss to Virginia Tech. Note that the Tar Heels have knocked down 29, 29, 33, 25 and 22 field goals over their last five contests. Over that stretch they attempted fewer than 60 field goals only once, getting up to 65+ in that department on three occasions. Outside of a very limited (offensively) Virginia squad, UNC's opponents have had little trouble scoring, knocking down 27, 25, 31, 34, 18 and 25 field goals over its last six games. Four of the Tar Heels last five opponents scored 72+ points with the lone outlier being Virginia, as I mentioned. These two teams actually have a bit of recent history having met last February in a game that totalled 153 points. That game as played at a slower pace than I'm anticipating here and it's also worth noting that the two teams combined to make just 14 three-pointers (they average 17 per game combined this season) and the Tar Heels shot a miserable 25-of-60 from the field. We've seen an adjustment to the total (that game saw a closing total of 145.5) but I'm not convinced it will be enough. Take the over (10*). |
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03-16-22 | Notre Dame v. Rutgers OVER 131 | Top | 89-87 | Win | 100 | 60 h 0 m | Show |
NCAA First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Notre Dame and Rutgers at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. It might be easy to forget due to its early exit in the ACC Tournament but Notre Dame enters the NCAA Tournament riding a 7-0-1 'over' streak. Meanwhile, Rutgers was brought to an early demise in the Big Ten Tournament with an 'over' result against Iowa, snapping a four-game 'under' streak in the process. Notre Dame certainly 'filled it up' down the stretch, making good on 27+ field goals in six of its final eight games. Despite the pace not being there over the Irish's last two games, they still managed to knock down 27 field goals in each contest, putting up 78 and 80 points against Pitt and Virginia Tech. On the flip side, we've seen the Irish allow 36, 29, 26, 21, 28, 23 and 31 made field goals over their last seven games. The two outliers were 21 and 23 against two weak opponents in Georgia Tech and Pitt. Rutgers should pose a significantly tougher challenge here. The Scarlet Knights haven't posted eye-popping offensive numbers by any means, largely due to a relatively slow pace in most games. They still managed to make good on 27+ field goals in four of their last seven games and I do think this is a game where we see that pace pick up a bit (Notre Dame has yielded opponents 60+ field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games). Despite the slow tempo, Rutgers has allowed 26, 27, 23, 23, 18 and 26 made field goals over its last six games with the outlier coming in what amounted to a defensive slog against Penn State - an opponent that certainly attracts that type of contest. Neither team guards the perimeter all that well with Notre Dame allowing 8-of-20 shooting from three-point range away from home and Rutgers yielding 8-of-24 from beyond the arc away from Piscataway. Take the over (10*). |
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03-15-22 | Cleveland State v. Xavier OVER 146.5 | Top | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
NIT First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Xavier at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a track meet between Cleveland State and Xavier in NIT action on Tuesday. Cleveland State made an unceremonious early exit in the Horizon League Tournament thanks to a poor shooting effort against Wright State. The Vikings still managed to knock down 25 field goals and score 67 points in that setback. Note that they've made good on 30+ field goals in four of their last eight games with the low-water mark being 21 over that stretch in what turned out to be a lwo-scoring, defensive affair against Oakland. Here, I'm confident we'll see Xavier push the pace, noting that it has gotten off 60+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games, eclipsing the 70 FG mark three times over that stretch. The Musketeers haven't just been pushing the pace, they've been knocking down their shots as well, making good on 33+ field goals in three of their last five games. While Cleveland State has held six straight opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals, that's had more to do with pace than anything else. The Vikings have been nothing special defensively away from home, where they've yielded 26-of-56 shooting and eight made threes per game. Not only that but they've sent opponents to the free throw line 22 times per game away from home this season. Xavier is certainly vulnerable at the defensive end of the floor, allowing 34, 25, 33, 29, 28, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last seven contests. Even in the game where they only allowed 25 made FG's they still gave up 72 points in a loss to UConn. Take the over (10*). |
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03-15-22 | Missouri State v. Oklahoma OVER 138.5 | 72-89 | Win | 100 | 32 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Missouri State and Oklahoma at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Missouri State is absolutely capable of 'filling it up', even against a Big 12 opponent in Oklahoma on Tuesday. It was an 'up' year for the Missouri Valley Conference as far as I'm concerned with no easy games to be had. The Bears thrived offensively, knocking down 26+ made field goals in each of their last seven games, including 29 or more in four of those contests. However, they did little to slow the opposition, a big reason for their early demise in the MVC Tournament. Missouri State checks in having allowed 33, 26, 24, 22 and 28 made field goals over its last five contests, with the two outliers coming against weaker Valpo and Evansville squads. Only one of the Bears last four opponents failed to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Not surprisingly, we've seen the 'over' cash in six of the Bears last seven games overall. Oklahoma got bogged down offensively in a couple of matchups against Texas Tech - one of the best defensive teams in the country - including in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. Between those two games, the Sooners did make good on 22, 27, 28 and 26 field goals, despite the fact that they got off 54 or fewer FG attempts in all four of those contests. Here, I'm expecting the Sooners to get involved in a more up-tempo affair with the Bears. I say that as we did see Oklahoma yield 58+ FG attempts in four of its last five games and it comes in having allowed six of its last nine opponents to make good on 25+ field goals. Take the over (8*). |
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03-13-22 | Yale v. Princeton OVER 142.5 | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Yale and Princeton at 12 noon et on Sunday. I think the betting markets are a little spooked when it comes to the total here after both of these teams produced 'under' results in yesterday's Ivy League semi-final matchups. We're dealing with a considerably lower posted total that we saw in the two regular season meetings, keeping in mind both of those games got into the 150's. Yale didn't need to force the issue yesterday as Penn simply wasn't hitting its shots, making good on just 23-of-58 of its field goal attempts. The Bulldogs have generally been giving up a fairly consistent number of buckets though, yielding 26+ made field goals in five straight games prior to yesterday's contest. That's with a relatively slow pace. Here, we can anticipate Princeton pushing the pace. The Tigers have certainly been 'filling it up' lately, and really all season long. The enter this game having made good on 29+ field goals in seven of their last nine games and have scored 74+ points in five straight contests. An issue, however, is Princeton's inability to slow down opposing offenses, allowing 28, 29, 31 and 32 made field goals over its last four games, yielding 63 or more FG attempts in three straight contests entering Sunday's Championship Game. Take the over (8*). |
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03-12-22 | Louisiana Tech v. UAB OVER 135 | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisiana Tech and UAB at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We saw an exceptionally low-scoring game involving Louisiana Tech yesterday as the Bulldogs defeated North Texas 42-36 in one of the uglier college basketball games you'll ever see. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday as the Bulldogs challenge the UAB Blazers in the C-USA Championship Game. Note that the two regular season matchups between these two teams totalled 159 and 161 points. They just faced one another last week and we saw a closing total of 147, so we're dealing with a major adjustment to that number here. I'm not sure it's warranted. Louisiana Tech's three previous opponents in this tournament simply haven't been able to knock down their shots, with only Marshall managing to hit more than 21 field goals (the Thundering Herd made 25 in a 77-67 loss). It's not as if the Bulldogs have been a dominant defensive team all season though, noting that they yield 25-of-59 shooting including 8-of-24 from beyond the arc away from home this season. The Blazers offer a much different challenge compared to what the Bulldogs have faced so far in this tournament. UAB checks in having knocked down 32, 32, 27 and 31 field goals over its last four games, scoring 80+ points in each of those contests. I am confident that Louisiana Tech can be along for the ride here, however, noting that the Blazers have proven vulnerable defensively, yielding 25, 22, 29, 23 and 32 made field goals over their last five contests (I realize the latter result involved three overtime periods against Middle Tennessee State yesterday). UAB generally likes to push the pace, averaging 62 field goal attempts per game away from home this season and I do believe that will open the door for the Bulldogs offense here, noting that they hit 53 field goals across the two regular season meetings, even reaching 76 points in the first matchup despite getting off only 52 attempts. Take the over (10*). |
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03-12-22 | Pennsylvania v. Yale OVER 144.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
Ivy League Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Penn and Yale at 2 pm et on Saturday. Penn enters this Ivy League semi-final matchup riding a five-game 'over' streak and I look for that to continue against Yale on Saturday. The Quakers were one of the worst defensive teams in the country down the stretch, allowing 28, 30, 30, 28 and 37 made field goals over their last five games. They can't help but continue to push the pace though, as they continue to 'pour it in', knocking down 28, 29, 33, 26 and 31 field goals over their last five games and enter this contest having scored 70+ points in nine straight games - a run that started with a 76-point performance against Yale. The Bulldogs took their share of lumps down the stretch, unable to consistently slow down the opposition, allowing three of their last five opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Their offensive numbers certainly don't pop off the page, but they did manage to make good on 24 or more field goals in five of their last six games, an encouraging sign given that they don't play at all that quick of a pace. Note that we have a potential floor to work with as far as these two offenses go, noting that Yale shot 23-of-59 from the field including just 3-of-19 from beyond the arc in the first meeting between these two teams this season, yet that game still got to 144 total points. The next meeting was higher-scoring as Yale won by an 81-72 score. Take the over (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Miami-FL v. Duke OVER 147.5 | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Duke at 7 pm et on Friday. This one has all the makings of a track meet as Duke heads into this game riding a four-game 'over' streak while Miami has shot a blistering 50%+ from the field in five consecutive games. The Hurricanes are absolutely locked-in offensively right now, making good on 28+ field goals in eight straight games, albeit boosted by overtime yesterday against Boston College. On the flip side, the Canes aren't really slowing anyone down, allowing 28+ made field goals in three of their last four games and now run into a juggernaut in the Blue Devils. Duke has knocked down 35, 32, 34 and 32 field goals over its last four games, scoring more than 80 points in all four contests. Like Miami, though, Duke has done little to slow opponents down, yielding 27+ made field goals in five of its last seven games. The Blue Devils last two opponents have gotten off 68 and 67 FG attempts. In the lone regular season matchup between these two teams Miami pulled off a stunning 76-74 upset win at Cameron Indoor. That game saw 150 total points despite the two teams hitting only 10 three-pointers (they average 15 per game combined this season) and combining for only 28 free throw attempts (they average 34 FT attempts per game combined). Take the over (8*). |
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03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence OVER 130.5 | Top | 85-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Big East Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Creighton and Providence at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Creighton enters this game on the heels of four straight 'under' results - a streak that started with a 72-51 road loss against Providence. That low-scoring recent matchup is serving to give us a lower posted total for this rematch. I believe it will prove too low. Note that Creighton made good on only 18 field goals in that contest, including just four from beyond the arc. While Providence can obviously be tough to break down defensively, the Blue Jays do check in averaging 26 made field goals including seven from beyond the arc per game away from home this season. There's reason to believe they can show at least some improvement offensively in this one. Defensively, it's another matter entirely. The Blue Jays have had no success slowing opposing offenses. Going back to February 20th, they've yielded 35, 33, 28, 27, 27 and 23 made field goals over their last six games. Providence shot 28-of-59 against them four games back. Here, the Friars check in off a poor offensive showing against a frustrating Butler squad last night, making good on only 20 field goals but still managing to score 65 points in a four-point victory. Prior to that, the Friars had hit at least 25 field goals in six straight games, scoring 70+ points in all six of those contests. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Washington v. USC OVER 141.5 | Top | 61-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and USC at 11:30 pm et on Thursday. Washington enters this game having seen the 'over' cash in five of its last six and 11 of its last 13 games overall. USC, meanwhile, has posted a 3-1 o/u record over its last four games. Washington didn't do much to stop the Utah offense in last night Pac-12 Tournament opener, but prevailed thanks to its own offense pouring in 82 points on 30 made field goals. The Huskies have now allowed 26 or more made field goals in nine of their last 11 games, including back on February 17th when they allowed the same USC squad they'll face tonight knock down 30-of-62 attempts from the field in a 79-69 loss. There was really nothing special that got that contest 'over' the total. In fact, it was an off night for the Washington offense as they could only make good on 22-of-60 field goal attempts. The Huskies were mired in a scoring slump at that time - a stretch that saw them knock down just 21, 22 and 18 field goals in consecutive games. Here, Washington enters having hit 25 or more field goals in six straight games and 32 and 30 in its last two contests. USC has been hot as well, knocking down 33, 26, 27 and 25 field goals over its last four games. The pace didn't necessarily dictate all that high-scoring of performances over its last few games but here I suspect we'll have to combatants willing to go up and down the floor. Neither has shown any consistent ability or interest in slowing down their opponents tempo. While we are dealing with a higher posted total than we saw for the first meeting this season, I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Indiana v. Michigan OVER 136 | 74-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Michigan at 11:30 am et on Thursday. The lone regular season meeting between these two teams totalled 142 points and as a result we're dealing with a slightly higher posted total for this one. I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made, however. The Hoosiers haven't made life all that difficult on opposing offenses lately. Note that their opponents have made good on 26, 23, 27, 24 and 23 field goals over their last five games. At the face of it, those numbers don't look all bad. However, when you consider the Hoosiers yielded 58 or fewer field goal attempts in each of those five contests you see a different picture. Here, I do think Michigan will be able to push the pace a little bit. The Wolverines have had their own issues containing opposing offenses, giving up 27 or more made field goals in six of their last seven games. The only occasion where they didn't give up that number was last time out against Ohio State - a game in which the Buckeyes still shot a solid 24-of-50 from the field. On the flip side, the Michigan offense has been 'filling it up' lately, making good on 27 or more field goals in five straight games while getting off 60 and 68 FG attempts in its last two contests, showing a keen interest in pushing the tempo as I mentioned. Indiana should be a willing participant in an up-and-down affair here though, noting that despite playing at a slower pace, the Hoosiers have knocked down 28, 30, 23 and 26 field goals over their last four games, scoring 74, 84, 63 and 67 points along the way. Take the over (9*). |
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03-09-22 | Oregon State v. Oregon OVER 142.5 | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oregon State and Oregon at 5:30 pm et on Wednesday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team that played worse defensively down the stretch than Oregon State. The Beavers check in having allowed a ridiculous 30+ made field goals in six of their last eight games. The last time they played in-state rival Oregon, they gave up 78 points on 31 made field goals despite the Ducks barely needing to break a sweat getting off just 56 field goal attempts. Here, I do think Oregon State can be along for the ride, however, noting that Oregon brings awful defensive form into this contest as well. The Ducks check in having yielded 31, 31, 25, 26, 27 and 32 made field goals over their last six games. That's despite four of their six opponents over that stretch hoisting up fewer than 60 FG attempts. While the first meeting between these two teams totalled 154 points back in early January, the aforementioned second matchup reached only 134 points. That was thanks to the Beavers hitting just 20-of-66 field goals including only five from beyond the arc. While the Beavers offense isn't going to wow anyone, that was arguably its worst performance of the season. They did ramp things up a bit down the stretch, knocking down at least 23 field goals in seven of their last nine games. Of course, we all remember Oregon State's incredible run to a Pac-12 championship last year. While that's probably not in the cards this year, I don't expect the Beavers to go down without a fight. Take the over (8*). |
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03-08-22 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. California Baptist UNDER 148.5 | Top | 80-81 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
WAC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas-Rio Grande Valley and Cal Baptist at 9 pm et on Tuesday. |
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03-05-22 | Stanford v. Arizona State UNDER 130.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and Arizona State at 3 pm et on Saturday. We missed by the narrowest of margins with the 'under' in Stanford's last game against one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation in Arizona. Credit the Cardinal for at least slowing the Wildcats down enough to stay inside the pointspread in that game but it wasn't enough to keep it 'under' the total. Nevertheless, we'll go back to the well with the same play here as the Cardinal stay on the road to face a much slower-paced opponent in Arizona State. The Sun Devils have allowed just 22 made field goals on average here at home this season, limiting opponents to just under 64 points per game. Going back to February 12th, they've yielded just 18, 19, 21, 21, 21, 23 and 18 made field goals in their last seven contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed at a 5-2 clip over that stretch. While Arizona has also been shooting the ball well, fueling its current three-game winning streak and 6-1 run, I do think Stanford will pose a challenge here. The Cardinal have limited each of their last six opponents to 27 made field goals or fewer. Perhaps more importantly, they've been able to limit scoring opportunities in general, holding the opposition to 55 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last five games. Unfortunately for them, it hasn't translated to victories as their offense has been uneven at best, knocking down 21 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Wildcats up-tempo style was really the only thing that afforded Stanford the ability to approach 30 made field goals and 70 points last time out. I expect a different story to unfold here, noting that Stanford was held to 19-of-50 shooting, albeit in a winning effort, in its first meeting with Arizona State this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-05-22 | Dartmouth v. Harvard OVER 129.5 | Top | 76-54 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Harvard at 2 pm et on Saturday. When these teams matched up for the first time this season they combined to score only 119 points and as a result we're working with a lower posted total for this rematch. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair between the Big Green and Crimson. After a major offensive lull from January into early February, Dartmouth has started 'filling it up' again lately, knocking down 23, 28, 26 and 28 field goals in its last four contests, scoring 70+ points in three of those games. I'm confident the Big Green can continue their surge against a Harvard squad that has allowed 25+ made field goals in four of its last five games. On the flip side, we've seen the Crimson perform well offensively lately as well, even if the wins haven't come. They're coming off back-to-back losses but have knocked down 29, 28 and 29 field goals in their last three games, scoring 77, 67 and 73 points along the way. Note that Dartmouth hit only six three-pointers in its first meeting with Harvard this season but averages nine made threes per contest on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-05-22 | Alabama v. LSU UNDER 152.5 | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Alabama and LSU at 12 noon et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two SEC rivals totalled only 137 points this season. We're actually dealing with a higher posted total this time around, largely due to recent high-scoring results from both teams. I see a different story unfolding on Saturday, however. Note that LSU has held the opposition to an average of 19-for-54 shooting here at home this season. After falling short in a high-scoring game against Arkansas last time out, I'm not sure the Tigers want to get involved in a track meet against a more athletic Alabama squad here. The Crimson Tide's most recent game reached 158 points against Texas A&M but that was only thanks to both teams shooting the lights out. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring affair. I don't expect the Tide to have such a difficult time containing an LSU offense that has topped out at 28 made field goals over its last four games and averages that exact number here at home this season. Keep in mind, in the first matchup between these two teams, LSU knocked down 10 three-pointers, well north of its season average, yet still only got to 67 points. Alabama benefited from 32 trips to the free throw line in that contest, a number I don't expect it to approach with the scene shifting to Baton Rouge for this rematch. Take the under (8*). |
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03-04-22 | Bowling Green v. Toledo OVER 165 | Top | 56-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Toledo at 6:30 pm et on Friday. This game has 'track meet' written all over it. While we're dealing with a very high posted total, I believe it could be even higher. Bowling Green hasn't had any success in slowing the pace although I'm not sure it really has any interest in doing so. The Falcons have allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Opponents have been 'filling it up' against BGSU, knocking down 28, 34, 44, 28, 27, 28 and 26 field goals over its last seven contests. Enter Toledo. The Rockets have lit it up, making good on 105 field goals in their last three games alone, scoring 92, 88 and 92 points in those three contests. The Rockets play at an even faster pace than the Falcons, yielding 63+ field goal attempts to opponents in six of their last seven games. That should open the door for the Falcons capable offense to go off as well in an effort to keep up. BGSU has been fairly consistent offensively, knocking down 25 or more field goals in six straight games entering Friday's contest. The Falcons didn't shoot particularly well in the first meeting between these two teams this season, but still made good on 30 FG attempts including 10 from beyond the arc for 78 points in a game that totalled 169 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 116.5 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and San Diego State at 11 pm et on Thursday. There are times where the oddsmakers simply can't set a total low enough (or high enough) and I feel this is such a spot. Fresno State checks in off a relatively high-scoring 71-68 win over New Mexico last time out. Meanwhile, San Diego State has seen its last two games go 'over' the total. That only helps to keep this number in a playable range for us on Thursday. Both teams are capable of playing stout defense and slowing the game to a crawl. In fact, they prefer it that way. Fresno State has held opponents to an average of 22-of-50 shooting on the road this season while San Diego State has been even better here at home, limiting the opposition to just 20-of-53 field goals and only five made threes per game. While both teams are capable of 'filling it up' against the weaker teams in the Mountain West, that's rarely been the case in matchups with the conference's power teams. Note that the first meeting between the Bulldogs and Aztecs this season totalled just 105 points. We saw just 37 combined field goals made in that contest. The only thing that ended up boosting the total north of the century mark was the fact that the two teams knocked down 15 threes. Keep in mind, Fresno State and San Diego State combine to average just 12 made threes per game this season so a repeat performance isn't necessarily a sure thing in that regard. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with Fresno coming off an ATS loss this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-3 with the Aztecs following up consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Stanford v. Arizona UNDER 147.5 | 69-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and Arizona at 9 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Arizona's most recent game - a 91-71 blowout win at USC on Tuesday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Wildcats begin a two-game homestand to close out the regular season. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 142 points. We're dealing with a slightly lower posted total this time around but I'm not sure enough of an adjustment was made. Stanford got off a whopping 70 field goal attempts in that game yet still only got to 57 points. Here, I don't expect the Cardinal to attempt nearly as many shots, noting that they've gotten off just 54, 58, 49 58, 54 and 51 FG attempts over their last six contests. On the flip side, Stanford has done a good job of keeping opposing offenses in check lately, limiting its last five opponents to 70 points or less on 57 or fewer FG attempts. Arizona will obviously always be looking to push the pace, but I'm not convinced it will have to for a full 40 minutes here, noting it checks in as a nearly 20-point favorite at home. While the Wildcats offense gets all of the press, their defense deserves some credit as well as they've held opponents to just north of 62 points per game on a paltry 36% shooting at home this season. Stanford doesn't figure to pose much of a threat to those numbers as it averages just 22 made field goals per game including only six from beyond the arc on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-03-22 | Memphis v. South Florida UNDER 131.5 | 73-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and South Florida at 9 pm et on Thursday. South Florida enters this game off four consecutive 'under' results while Memphis saw its most recent game stay 'under' the total despite scoring 80+ points in a rout of Wichita State. I look for another relatively low-scoring affair when the two teams meet up for their only regular season matchup on Thursday night. South Florida plays at an incredibly slow pace at home. For as poorly as things have gone for the Bulls at times this season, they have held opponents to just 61.3 points per game on 22-for-53 shooting on average here at home this season. The enter this game in fine form defensively, fresh off an upset win at Cincinnati, having held the opposition to just 20, 22, 16 and 19 made field goals over their last four games. Even with Memphis playing at a fairly fast pace lately, it has still managed to hold consecutive opponents to just 21 made field goals. Going back further, nine of the Tigers last 11 opponents have made good on 23 or fewer field goal attempts. Memphis itself has gotten off fewer than 60 FG attempts in four of its last five games. The only reason it was able to break 80 points last time out was because it shot the lights out (55% from the field). I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. Take the under (8*). |
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03-02-22 | LSU v. Arkansas UNDER 142 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between LSU and Arkansas at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 123 points. While we're dealing with a lower posted total for this game than we did for that previous matchup, I'm not sure enough of an adjustment has been made. LSU has done a nice job defensively over the last month or so but unfortunately its offense hasn't always lived up to its end of the bargain. The Tigers have held five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals while limiting five straight opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. It was actually their most recent opponent that got off those 56 attempts, that being Missouri in a game where it scored just 55 points on 20 made field goals. The Tigers are allowing just 24 made FG's per game including only six from beyond the arc on the road this season. Arkansas rolls into this matchup off four straight wins. While it did manage to come away victorious in both games, I'm not convinced it wants the pace up around where it was in its last two contests against Florida and Kentucky. Prior to allowing 26 and 30 made field goals in their last two games, the Razorbacks had held four of their previous five opponents to 24 made FG's or less, giving up 21 or less in three of those contests. The Hogs filled up the boxscore in their last two games but are also just two games removed from knocking down only 18 field goals in a very low-scoring game against Tennessee (106 total points). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 with LSU coming off consecutive ATS wins this season and 11-3 with Arkansas having won six or seven of its last eight games ATS over the last two seasons. Take the under (9*). |
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03-01-22 | Arizona v. USC OVER 149 | 91-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and USC at 11 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 135 points. Both teams are coming off 'under' results. Those two factors only serve to keep Tuesday's posted total in check. Both teams are giving up a ton of opportunities right now. Arizona has allowed 12 of its last 13 opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Its only opponent over that stretch that didn't top the 60 FG mark was Washington and that was a game that still reached 160 points. USC has allowed 60+ FG attempts in six straight games. The Trojans aren't likely to force the Wildcats into a slugfest here and even if they could, that type of contest likely wouldn't favor them anyway given that the first meeting between these two teams this season was relatively low-scoring and still went Arizona's way by nine points. USC does come in having knocked down 59 shots in its last two games. The Trojans have won six games in a row and haven't seen consecutive games stay 'under' the total since February 3rd and 5th. Take the over (6*). |
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03-01-22 | Cincinnati v. Houston UNDER 136.5 | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Houston at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The Bearcats were embarrassed by Houston 80-58 on their home floor back on February 6th. In fact, this series has been all Cougars lately as they've taken each of the last three meetings by 20+ points. I do expect Cincinnati to put up more of a fight on Tuesday but if it is going to accomplish that, it will need to tighten things up defensively. The good news is, the Bearcats have done a better job of keeping opposing offenses under wraps on the road than they have at home this season. Note that they allow just 23 made field goals including only five made threes per game on the road this season. Houston has of course been lights out defensively all season but particularly of late. The Cougars have limited opponents to 20 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last 11 games. With the Bearcats having only managed to score 52, 54 and 58 points against them in their last three meetings there's a low probability that the Cougars suddenly get blitzed here. Note that Houston allows a ridiculously-low 18 made field goals including only six made threes per game here at home this season. Take the under (6*). |
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03-01-22 | NJIT v. Stony Brook UNDER 139 | Top | 68-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
America East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Jersey Tech and Stony Brook at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these offenses are slumping right now and given the first meeting between the two squads this season totalled only 127 points, I'm not expecting anything resembling a track meet on Tuesday. New Jersey Tech has topped out at 24 made field goals in its last six games with that performance coming last time out, in a game in which it hoisted up 63 field goal attempts and still scored just 63 points. Stony Brook has made just 22, 18 and 24 field goals in its last three contests. We have seen the Sea Wolves tighten things up defensively over that stretch, however, yielding a grand total of just 63 made field goals over those three games. New Jersey Tech's last two opponents have shot the lights out, leading directly to a pair of 'over' results. The pace wasn't necessarily there in either of those contests and I don't believe it will be in Tuesday's game either. Take the under (10*). |
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03-01-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia OVER 145 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
SEC Regular Season Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Georgia at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. Georgia enters Tuesday's clash with Tennessee having seen the 'over' cash in five straight games and I look for that streak to continue here. The Vols should have little trouble 'filling it up' against the Bulldogs, noting that Georgia has allowed 30+ made field goals in five straight games. In fact, each of the Dawgs last three opponents have shot better than 51% from the field. The Vols will be looking to 'get right' offensively after struggling a bit with their shooting over their last five contests. I have no doubt that the Georgia defense will be the cure for what ails them. We have seen Tennessee make a concerted effort to push the pace over the last couple of games, hoisting up 60+ field goal attempts in consecutive wins over Missouri and Auburn. That quicker pace should open the door for the Bulldogs to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. Note that despite Georgia's recent struggles, it has shot reasonably well despite a slew of slower-paced contests. Also note that the Vols do send opponents to the free throw line 21 times per game on the road this season while Georgia has shown the ability to get there with some consistency at home, averaging 21 attempts per contest on this floor. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Central Connecticut State v. Fairleigh Dickinson OVER 135.5 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Central Connecticut State and Fairleigh Dickinson at 7 pm et on Monday. The fact that this is a matchup between two bottom-dwellers in the NEC has most expecting a rather sloppy, low-scoring affair. I'm not so easily convinced. Rather than simply 'play out the string', we saw Fairleigh Dickinson throw caution to the wind down the stretch and it all started with a wild 91-82 loss against the same opponent it will face on Monday, Central Connecticut State, back on February 5th. Including that contest, FDU scored 82, 65, 82, 44, 93, 88 and 77 points. The Knights have essentially been stuffing boxscores since late January. They should have little trouble terrorizing a Central Connecticut defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. The question here is whether CCU can do its part to help this one 'over' the total. Given that it shot 50% on 64 field goal attempts when these two teams last met earlier this month and the fact that FDU has yielded 60+ FG attempts in six of its last eight games, allowing 30+ made field goals in half of those contests, I believe it can. We're dealing with a short pointspread for a reason in this game in my opinion, and I'm confident that the Blue Devils can 'fill it up' against a vulnerable FDU defense and ultimately keep within arm's reach, helping generate a flurry of late scoring as well, even if we may not even need that support. Take the over (10*). |
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02-27-22 | Montana State v. Montana UNDER 135.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Montana State and Montana at 5 pm et on Saturday. Montana enters this game on the heels of seven consecutive 'over' results. With that in mind, we're not seeing a major adjustment to the total compared to the first meeting between these two in-state rivals this season, despite that contest reaching just 125 total points (that game saw a closing total of 137.5). Montana has been a different team at home compared to on the road, absolutely locking down the opposition, allowing just 20 made field goals per game including only five from beyond the arc. While the Grizzlies have scored 70+ points in three consecutive games entering Sunday's contest, that's been the exception rather than the rule as they eclipsed that mark in only seven of their previous 14 conference games this season. Montana State currently leads the Big Sky Conference with a 13-3 record and has certainly been 'filling it up' lately but that's had a lot to do with the level of competition it has faced. It shot better than 50% from the field but still scored 'only' 66 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season. In that game, the Bobcats only managed to get off 45 field goal attempts (they also got to the free throw line 19 times, two shy of their season average). Off consecutive losses and sinking in the Big Sky standings, I do expect Montana to put up a serious fight in this game, as the line would indicate and that should lend itself to a relatively low-scoring affair, much like we saw in the first meeting. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-22 | CS Bakersfield v. Hawaii UNDER 130.5 | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cal State-Bakersfield and Hawaii at midnight et on Saturday. We saw CSUB's seven-game 'over' streak come to an end last time out as it was involved in a slugfest that totalled only 121 points against Cal-Poly. I expect more of the same as it heads to Hawaii on Saturday. Both of these teams have done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities. CSUB checks in allowing just 22 made field goals per game on the road this season. While opponents have gotten to the free throw line with consistency against them, Hawaii doesn't figure to be a team to take full advantage, noting that it averages only 17 trips to the charity stripe per game and got there only 12 times in the first meeting between these two this season (that game totalled only 122 points). Hawaii has really stepped it up defensively of late, limiting three of its last four opponents to 20 or fewer made field goals. It does send opponents to the free throw line 20 times per game here at home but again, CSUB doesn't figure to take advantage, noting that it gets to the line just 15 times per contest and shoots sub-70% from the stripe on the road this season. Take the under (6*). |
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02-26-22 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts OVER 154.5 | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled 155 points and as a result we're looking at a higher posted total for this rematch (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 145.5). I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. There was really nothing special about that first matchup as far as the performance of the two offenses goes. In fact, South Dakota actually knocked down only four three-pointers in the game - three less than its season average. The two teams also made just 20 free throws combined, less than their combined per game season average of 26. South Dakota enters this game off three consecutive 'under' results. I simply don't see this game being played at the same relatively slow pace that we saw in any of those three games. Note that Oral Roberts comes in having knocked down a whopping 69 field goals over its last two games. But it is also affording the opposition a ton of scoring opportunities, allowing 60+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games with the 'over' cashing at a 4-2 clip over that stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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02-26-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa OVER 137.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Loyola-Chicago and Northern Iowa at 6 pm et on Saturday. The opposition has been absolutely filling it up against Northern Iowa lately, knocking down 35. 26, 29 and 32 field goals in the Panthers last four games, leading to a 3-1 o/u record over that stretch. There's little reason to think Loyola-Chicago can't add to the Panthers defensive woes here, as it comes in off an 82-point explosion against Evansville and has scored 70+ points in four of its last five contests. The question here is whether Northern Iowa can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonably-priced total. I believe the Panthers can as they come into this one after scoring 72, 95 and 88 points over the course of a three-game winning streak. They scored only 58 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season (that game still got into the 140's) but shot just 40% from the field and got to the free throw line only six times in that game. In fact, we saw just six made free throws in that contest (the two teams combine to average 26 made free throws per game this season). With this total sitting in the 130's, I believe we have plenty of wiggle room to work with. Take the over (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Texas-Arlington v. South Alabama UNDER 133 | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas-Arlington and South Alabama at 8 pm et on Friday. While the first meeting between these two teams was played at a break-neck pace and ultimately got into the 170's, I don't expect anything of the sort in Friday's rematch. South Alabama is playing a completely different style of basketball now than it was back in that late-December meeting. The Jaguars have been slowing things down to a crawl and should be even more motivated to do so as they look to snap a two-game skid on Friday. They certainly don't want to get out and run with UTA, noting that it has had considerable success doing so lately, scoring 80+ points in recent wins over Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas-Little Rock. When opponents have elected to slow Arlington down, they've found success, noting that UTA has scored just 49 and 53 points in consecutive losses entering Friday's contest. South Alabama has allowed more than 21 made field goals just once in its last six games and gives up less than 58 points per game at home this season. The Jaguars figure to be able to dictate the tempo as considerable home favorites in this one. Take the under (7*). |
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02-25-22 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Arkansas State at 8 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 115 points and while we're dealing with a small adjustment to the posted total in this one (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 134.5) I don't believe it will prove to be enough. Arkansas State enters this game off a five-point loss at home against Coastal Carolina as it performed poorly defensively, allowing the Chanticleers to eclipse the 70-point mark and shoot 50% from the field. Keep in mind, the Red Wolves allow just 62.7 points per game on an average of only 23 made field goals including just five from beyond the arc here at home this season. Appalachian State is fresh off consecutive wins and scored 78 points in a double-digit victory over Arkansas-Little Rock last time out. The Mountaineers knocked down 32 field goals in that contest - the first time they hit more than 27 field goals in a game since posting 33 back in mid-January against Coastal Carolina. The Mountaineers average only 65.1 ppg on the road this season where they're good for an average of 24 made field goals including seven from three-point range, not to mention only 14 trips per contest to the free throw line. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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02-24-22 | Buffalo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Northern Illnois at 8 pm et on Thursday. Buffalo has been on a blistering scoring pace lately, scoring 80+ points in six consecutive games. I do think Northern Illinois has a shot at knocking the Bulls off balance a little bit here, noting that the Huskies have limited opponents to just 53 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. None of NIU's last four opponents have gotten off more than 54 field goal attempts but the problem is it has allowed its last two foes to shoot 52% and 59% from the field. The good news is, the last time the Huskies allowed consecutive opponents to shoot better than 50% they followed it up with a 64-58 win over Ball State in which they held the Cardinals to 35% shooting. Buffalo allowed 84 points against Miami-Ohio last time out, barely escaping with a two-point win. Note that the Bulls have given up just 64, 74, and 69 points in their last three conference games after giving up 80+ points in their previous game. NIU certainly isn't an imposing offensive threat here at home where it averages 25 made field goals per game including only six from beyond the arc, while getting to the free throw line 19 times and knocking down an average of 13 of those freebies. Take the under (8*). |
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02-24-22 | Cleveland State v. Detroit OVER 144 | Top | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Detroit at 7 pm et on Thursday. Cleveland State is on an incredible 'over' run right now, with seven of its last eight games finding their way 'over' the total with one 'push' mixed in. The Vikings have scored 85, 84, 75, 83, 98, 78 and 79 points over that stretch and I don't see the Detroit Titans doing much to slow them down here. I do think the Titans can stick around, however, and I'm certainly not alone with this pointspread sitting near a pk'em. The Titans play reasonably fast at home, and get off an average of 30 three-point attempts per game, knocking down 12 of them. If they play their cards right, they should also be afforded plenty of opportunities at the free throw line, with Cleveland State sending opponents to the charity stripe an average of 22 times per game on the road this season. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 142 points but that contest was played at a slower pace than I'm anticipating tonight, not to mention the fact that Detroit knocked down only 4-of-21 three-point attempts, a performance I'm certain it can and will improve on here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with Cleveland State coming off a double-digit victory over a conference opponent this season, leading to an average total of 167.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-23-22 | Cincinnati v. UCF UNDER 141.5 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and UCF at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Cincinnati has seen the 'over' cash in six straight games entering Wednesday's matchup with the Golden Knights in Orlando. The Bearcats have scored 70+ points in five straight games but clearly what they're doing right now isn't working as they've lost five of their last eight contests, going 2-6 ATS over that stretch. I do think that UCF will be able to slow the Bearcats down, noting that the Knights allow an average of only 23 made field goals and 14 free throw attempts per game here at home this season. The 'under' has cashed in UCF's last two games and it checks in having given up fewer than 70 points in five of its last seven contests. Only one of the two games where the Knights did allow 70 or more points over that stretch found its way 'over' the total. Interestingly, Cincinnati has been at its absolute best defensively on the road this season, giving up only 23 made field goals including just three made threes per game away from home. With that being said, it has had an issue with sending opponents to the charity stripe, yielding 23 free throw attempts per game on the road. Can the Knights exploit that? I'm not so sure. UCF averages only 17 free throw attempts per contest overall and just 14 per game at home. This will be the first matchup between these two teams this season and it's worth noting that we're working with a higher posted total than we saw in either of last season's two meetings. Those two games went 'over' the total but only one eclipsed the number we're working with here. That being said, seven of the last eight meetings between these two quads here in Orlando have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy NCAA-B Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-13-23 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina UNDER 156.5 | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
02-12-23 | Quinnipiac v. Canisius OVER 144.5 | 65-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
02-11-23 | Colorado v. Utah UNDER 137 | Top | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
02-10-23 | Marist v. St. Peter's UNDER 124.5 | Top | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
02-09-23 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Long Beach State OVER 145 | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
02-08-23 | Florida v. Alabama OVER 147.5 | Top | 69-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
02-07-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh OVER 138.5 | Top | 57-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
02-06-23 | Green Bay v. Wisc-Milwaukee OVER 142 | Top | 80-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
02-06-23 | Duke v. Miami-FL OVER 145.5 | 59-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
02-04-23 | Syracuse v. Boston College OVER 138.5 | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
02-04-23 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame OVER 148.5 | Top | 81-64 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
02-03-23 | Cornell v. Princeton OVER 157 | Top | 82-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
01-28-23 | Texas Tech v. LSU OVER 132 | Top | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
01-26-23 | UCLA v. USC OVER 130 | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
01-25-23 | Louisville v. Boston College OVER 133.5 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
01-23-23 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 149.5 | Top | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
01-22-23 | Washington State v. Colorado UNDER 137 | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
01-19-23 | UCLA v. Arizona State OVER 135 | Top | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
01-18-23 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
01-17-23 | Clemson v. Wake Forest OVER 147 | Top | 77-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
01-16-23 | Princeton v. Pennsylvania UNDER 145.5 | 72-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
01-14-23 | Utah v. USC UNDER 135.5 | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
01-14-23 | Bradley v. Drake OVER 128.5 | Top | 61-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
01-14-23 | Air Force v. Fresno State OVER 123 | 51-48 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
01-14-23 | Virginia v. Florida State OVER 131 | 67-58 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
01-14-23 | Troy State v. Appalachian State OVER 133.5 | 45-58 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
01-14-23 | Pennsylvania v. Dartmouth UNDER 141.5 | 71-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
01-14-23 | Wisconsin v. Indiana OVER 135.5 | Top | 45-63 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
01-10-23 | VCU v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 137 | Top | 78-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
01-06-23 | Dartmouth v. Yale OVER 129 | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
12-28-22 | Duquesne v. Dayton OVER 131 | 57-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
12-27-22 | Jacksonville v. Notre Dame OVER 129 | Top | 43-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
12-21-22 | Bellarmine v. Evansville OVER 127.5 | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
12-12-22 | Creighton v. Arizona State OVER 139.5 | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
12-09-22 | Washington v. Gonzaga OVER 149 | 60-77 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
12-08-22 | Colorado State v. Colorado UNDER 143.5 | 65-93 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
12-07-22 | Brown v. Rhode Island UNDER 131 | 59-58 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
12-02-22 | Campbell v. East Carolina OVER 133.5 | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
11-19-22 | Providence v. Miami-FL UNDER 141.5 | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
11-18-22 | Baylor v. Virginia UNDER 133.5 | Top | 79-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
11-15-22 | Michigan State v. Kentucky UNDER 141.5 | 86-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
11-12-22 | UMass Lowell v. Rutgers UNDER 136 | 65-73 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
11-07-22 | Hofstra v. Princeton OVER 151 | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas UNDER 152.5 | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke OVER 151 | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
04-01-22 | Fresno State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 126.5 | 85-74 | Win | 100 | 34 h 23 m | Show | |
03-29-22 | St Bonaventure v. Xavier OVER 142 | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 127 h 30 m | Show |
03-28-22 | Southern Utah v. Fresno State OVER 135.5 | Top | 48-67 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
03-27-22 | St. Peter's v. North Carolina OVER 136.5 | 49-69 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
03-26-22 | Arkansas v. Duke UNDER 147.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
03-25-22 | Iowa State v. Miami-FL OVER 131.5 | 56-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
03-25-22 | St. Peter's v. Purdue OVER 133 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
03-24-22 | Houston v. Arizona OVER 145 | 72-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
03-24-22 | Texas Tech v. Duke OVER 137 | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
03-22-22 | Vanderbilt v. Xavier OVER 143 | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
03-21-22 | USC Upstate v. South Alabama UNDER 142 | 79-83 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
03-20-22 | Michigan State v. Duke OVER 142.5 | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 32 h 21 m | Show | |
03-20-22 | Florida v. Xavier OVER 144 | 56-72 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
03-19-22 | New Orleans v. Portland OVER 153.5 | 73-94 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
03-19-22 | Richmond v. Providence OVER 134 | Top | 51-79 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
03-19-22 | Michigan v. Tennessee UNDER 136.5 | 76-68 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
03-19-22 | Western Illinois v. UTEP OVER 144 | Top | 54-80 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 45 m | Show |
03-19-22 | North Carolina v. Baylor UNDER 149 | 93-86 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
03-18-22 | Miami-FL v. USC OVER 139.5 | 68-66 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 50 m | Show | |
03-18-22 | Delaware v. Villanova UNDER 133.5 | 60-80 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 19 m | Show | |
03-17-22 | Marquette v. North Carolina OVER 151.5 | Top | 63-95 | Win | 100 | 76 h 35 m | Show |
03-16-22 | Notre Dame v. Rutgers OVER 131 | Top | 89-87 | Win | 100 | 60 h 0 m | Show |
03-15-22 | Cleveland State v. Xavier OVER 146.5 | Top | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
03-15-22 | Missouri State v. Oklahoma OVER 138.5 | 72-89 | Win | 100 | 32 h 51 m | Show | |
03-13-22 | Yale v. Princeton OVER 142.5 | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
03-12-22 | Louisiana Tech v. UAB OVER 135 | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
03-12-22 | Pennsylvania v. Yale OVER 144.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
03-11-22 | Miami-FL v. Duke OVER 147.5 | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence OVER 130.5 | Top | 85-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
03-10-22 | Washington v. USC OVER 141.5 | Top | 61-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
03-10-22 | Indiana v. Michigan OVER 136 | 74-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
03-09-22 | Oregon State v. Oregon OVER 142.5 | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
03-08-22 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. California Baptist UNDER 148.5 | Top | 80-81 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
03-05-22 | Stanford v. Arizona State UNDER 130.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
03-05-22 | Dartmouth v. Harvard OVER 129.5 | Top | 76-54 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
03-05-22 | Alabama v. LSU UNDER 152.5 | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
03-04-22 | Bowling Green v. Toledo OVER 165 | Top | 56-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
03-03-22 | Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 116.5 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
03-03-22 | Stanford v. Arizona UNDER 147.5 | 69-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
03-03-22 | Memphis v. South Florida UNDER 131.5 | 73-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
03-02-22 | LSU v. Arkansas UNDER 142 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
03-01-22 | Arizona v. USC OVER 149 | 91-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
03-01-22 | Cincinnati v. Houston UNDER 136.5 | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
03-01-22 | NJIT v. Stony Brook UNDER 139 | Top | 68-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
03-01-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia OVER 145 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
02-28-22 | Central Connecticut State v. Fairleigh Dickinson OVER 135.5 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
02-27-22 | Montana State v. Montana UNDER 135.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
02-27-22 | CS Bakersfield v. Hawaii UNDER 130.5 | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
02-26-22 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts OVER 154.5 | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
02-26-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa OVER 137.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
02-25-22 | Texas-Arlington v. South Alabama UNDER 133 | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
02-25-22 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
02-24-22 | Buffalo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
02-24-22 | Cleveland State v. Detroit OVER 144 | Top | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
02-23-22 | Cincinnati v. UCF UNDER 141.5 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |