Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-14-23 | Bradley v. Drake OVER 128.5 | Top | 61-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Bradley and Drake at 8 pm et on Saturday. This isn't the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament and as such I think we'll see a much looser, up-tempo game between these two conference powerhouses than what you would expect to see in March. We're talking about two of the best offensive teams in the MVC on paper. Bradley has certainly showed it over its last two games, scoring 88 and 91 points in wins over Valpo and Evansville. While the level of competition steps up here, I like the consistency Bradley has shown at the offensive end of the floor, making good on 27 or more field goals in six of its last seven games. Drake comes off of a pair of exceptional offensive performances as well, scoring 82 and 76 points in wins over Murray State and Illinois-Chicago. The most recent meeting between these two teams last February was a low-scoring affair but of note, we haven't seen consecutive 'under' results between these two teams since back in 2018-19. Take the over (10*). |
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01-14-23 | Wisconsin v. Indiana OVER 135.5 | Top | 45-63 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Wisconsin and Indiana at 1 pm et on Saturday. The 'over' has cashed in each of Wisconsin's last two games while Indiana has seen all three of its Big Ten contests sail 'over' the total, allowing 91, 84 and 85 points in the process. While the Badgers aren't exactly known for their offensive prowess, I do think they find the going much easier against the Hoosiers non-existent defense after facing Illinois and Michigan State in their last two games. On the flip side, it's desperation time for Indiana and at home in what is a stand-alone Big Ten matchup on Saturday afternoon, I do think we see it come to play. The Hoosiers offense hasn't necessarily been the problem, even if it is coming off a poor showing against Penn State last time out. Prior to that, Indiana had put up 89 and 83 points against Iowa and Northwestern, respectively. I think we see both teams approach or eclipse the 70-point mark in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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01-13-23 | Juventus v. Napoli UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Napoli and Juventus at 2:45 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a cagey, low-scoring affair between the top two sides in the Serie A table on Friday in Naples. You would have to go back eight matches between these two Italian rivals to find the last time a game totalled more than three goals with four of the last seven meetings staying 'under' 2.5 total goals. While Juventus finds itself as the decided underdog ahead of this clash, it has conceded a grand total of only four goals in seven 'away' matches in Serie A play this season. It's a similar story for Napoli from a defensive standpoint as it has allowed only six goals in eight home matches. Both squads enter in fine form, particularly at the back line. You'd be hard-pressed to find two teams with stronger defensive units, certainly in Italy. Napoli's four-man back line rates out about as high as it gets based on my own metrics. Juventus' back line rates only slightly lower but we can anticipate the visitors also playing a little more conservatively here, helping their cause in trying to contain Napoli's opportunistic attack up front. Since returning to league play post-World Cup, Napoli has given up one goal in two matches while Juventus has yet to concede through a pair of contests. Of note, you would have to go back six matches across all competitions to find the last time a game involving Juventus went 'over' 2.5 total goals. Take the under (10*). |
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01-10-23 | Pistons v. 76ers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 116-147 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams were just involved in a relatively high-scoring affair two nights ago as the 76ers rolled to a 123-111 win in Detroit. That's been the norm for the Sixers lately as they enter this game riding a four-game 'over' streak (which matches a season-high). With both teams playing their fifth game in five nights, I believe both would prefer a slower-paced affair in Tuesday's rematch. The Pistons quietly shot the lights out in Sunday's contest, knocking down 44-of-87 field goal attempts. I don't anticipate a repeat performance with the scene shifting to Philadelphia, noting the 76ers are allowing just 40 made field goals per game on average at home this season. In a similar vein, the Pistons are making good on just 39 field goals per contest on the road this season. Philadelphia knocked down 46-of-94 field goal attempts on Sunday. The 76ers have been pushing the pace lately, getting off 98, 92 and 94 FG attempts in their last three games. I just don't see that being a sustainable trend, noting that Philadelphia averages just 85 FG attempts per contest this season, with that number rising only slightly to 86 here at home. Take the under (10*). |
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01-10-23 | VCU v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 137 | Top | 78-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between VCU and Loyola-Chicago at 7 pm et on Tuesday. VCU enters this showdown off three consecutive 'over' results while Loyola-Chicago has seen each of its last four contests go 'over' the total. I look for a reversal of those trends on Tuesday, however. Neither team has faced all that difficult of a schedule this season according to KenPom - both teams rank well north of 200th in the country in that department. VCU is knocking down an average of 23 field goals per game with that number dropping to 21 away from home. While Loyola-Chicago has made good on an impressive 29 field goals per contest here at home, that's had everything to do with the slate of opponents it has faced. The Ramblers have hosted Fairleigh-Dickinson, Central Arkansas, Depaul, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Albany and George Washington to date. You could certainly argue this will be their toughest defensive test to date on their home floor. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia UNDER 64 | Top | 7-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Georgia at 7:30 pm et on Monday. Both CFP semi-final matchups ended up being high-scoring affairs and that's helping this total hold strong approaching the mid-60's. I believe it will prove too high. Lost in TCU's 51-point explosion against Michigan was the fact that it completed just 14-of-29 passes for 225 yards - the second straight games in which the Horned Frogs completed 18 or fewer passes. Their ground game has of course been dominant, led by RB Kendre Miller. It is worth noting that Miller suffered a minor MCL injury in that semi-final against Michigan and now goes against a Georgia defense that has held opponents to just 3.0 yards per rush this season. The Bulldogs check in having allowed more than 94 rushing yards just once in their last six games - that coming in the scare against Ohio State in the CFP semi-final (we won with the Buckeyes in that game). Note that TCU earned itself three extra offensive possessions against Michigan, turning the Wolverines over three times in that contest. They're unlikely to enjoy the same good fortune here, noting that Georgia has turned it over just once in each of its last four games. While the Bulldogs offense has enjoyed tremendous success over their last two games going back to the SEC Championship Game, here we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times Georgia has played away from home off three straight 'over' results, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 45.8 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-08-23 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks offense has actually been struggling lately, despite last week's 23-6 win over the Jets here at home. The Rams down-trodden and injury-ravaged defense should be the cure for what ails them here, however. Teams have been running all over Los Angeles' defense since DT Aaron Donald and space-eater A'Shawn Robinson went down to injury. The Rams have given up 165, 138, 104 and 192 rush yards over their last four contests. That's not to say they've been any stronger against the pass either. Last week, the Chargers lit them up for 24-of-31 passing, good for 7.7 yards per pass attempt and two touchdowns. With all of his weapons at his disposal, Seahawks QB Geno Smith has the potential to go off in this one. The question becomes whether the Rams lukewarm offense can keep up in a potential shootout. They did find some success early in last week's game against the Chargers but once the margin got too large, they essentially took the air out of the football. I do expect a more competitive affair here, noting that the Rams will be looking to avenge an early-December home loss against the division-rival Seahawks. Keep in mind, Seattle hasn't won consecutive matchups in this series since 2016-17. Take the over (10*). |
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01-06-23 | Islanders v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The Flames are in uncharted territory from an o/u perspective, having seen the 'under' cash in five straight games - their longest such streak over the last 2+ seasons. The 'over' has gone 5-1 on the six occasions where their 'under' run reached four games over the last three campaigns, with that lone 'under' result coming in their most recent game in Winnipeg two nights ago (we won with the Jets in that contest). The 'under' has cashed in two of the Islanders first three games on their current road trip (we've successfully faded them in Seattle and Edmonton). Off a loss to the Oilers last night I do expect a better effort from the Isles here and it's worth noting that they've scored 6, 5, 5, 5, 2 and 6 goals. All three meetings between these two teams going back to last season have totalled exactly seven goals. You would have to go back six meetings here in Calgary - all the way to 2016 - to find the last time a game finished with fewer than six total goals. Take the over (10*). |
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01-06-23 | Dartmouth v. Yale OVER 129 | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Yale at 7 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting on Friday night. Dartmouth limps into this game on the heels of six consecutive losses, not to mention six straight 'under' results. The Big Green have done little to slow the pace of the opposition, allowing an average of 61 field goal attempts per game on the season. That spells trouble as Yale likes to push the pace, having hoisted up 60 or more FG attempts in six of its last eight games and gets a chance to show out here at home for the first time since November 30th (each of its last six games were played on the road). The Bulldogs check in off consecutive 'under' results. Note that both teams present a bit of a 'shock to the system' for the opposing defenses in this one as Dartmouth gets off an average of 26 three-point attempts per game while Yale hoists up 24 shots from beyond the arc per contest, with both teams having faced an average of only 19 attempts per game in that department. Last year's matchup between these two teams on Yale's home floor totalled 141 points, despite the two teams getting off just 53 (Dartmouth) and 50 (Yale) FG attempts. You would have to go back 10 meetings here at Yale - all the way to 2012 - to find the last time these two teams combined to score fewer than 130 points in a game against one another. Take the over (10*). |
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01-02-23 | Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 229 | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Pacers enter this game on the heels of three consecutive 'over' results - their longest such streak of the season to date. I don't believe tonight's opponent, the Toronto Raptors, will have any interest in getting involved in a track meet, noting that Indiana has shot the lights out over its last three games, putting up 129, 135 and 131 points in reeling off three straight victories. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 222 points back in November. Toronto dropped that game by double-digits, pushing the pace to its own detriment, shooting just 37-of-94 from the field. After snapping its two-game skid with defense last time out (Toronto limited Phoenix to 35-of-71 shooting), I'm expecting the Raps be selective at the offensive end of the floor, noting that they've hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. Having held the opposition to just 81 FG attempts on average on the road this season, Toronto's gameplan is fairly clear at this point. As I mentioned, the Pacers have been shooting the lights out. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for such high-scoring results though, noting that they've gotten off 88 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last five contests. Given we've seen point totals of 218, 191, 211, 222 and 222 in five meetings between these two teams going back to the start of last season, I believe tonight's total will once again prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants UNDER 39 | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. New York is coming off a relatively high-scoring affair in an indoor setting in Minnesota last Sunday. The Giants have seen consecutive games go 'over' the total only once previously this season though, that coming in a two-game stretch that saw them face the Lions and Cowboys - two distinctly different opponents than they'll face today in the down-trodden Colts. Indianapolis had a tough enough time just getting plays off let alone scoring with Nick Foles at the helm on Monday night against the Chargers. The Colts ran the ball only 14 times and threw it just 29 times in that 20-3 defeat. Needless to say, they'll be interested in shortening this game as much as they can to stay competitive on Sunday. The Giants would be wise to employ a similar gameplan given they've managed to win just once in their last six contests (they've played much better than that record would indicate going 4-2 ATS over that stretch). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Giants having lost four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 32.0 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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12-31-22 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 224.5 | Top | 103-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Saturday. The Cavs have seen each of their last five games go 'over' the total while the Bulls enter riding a four-game 'over' streak. Note that both teams shot the lights out in their most recent game with Cleveland knocking down 50-of-96 field goal attempts and Chicago hitting 53-of-92. I'm certainly not anticipating a repeat performance from either team on Saturday. Despite its recent 'over' streak, Cleveland has held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. It has allowed the opposition to knock down an average of only 39 field goals per contest on the road this season. Chicago yielded just 86 FG attempts in last night's double-digit win over the Pistons. It has now held five of its last six opponents to a reasonable 43 or fewer made field goals. The only previous matchup between these two teams this season reached 224 total points but it got there thanks to the Cavs exploding for 128. Take the under (10*). |
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12-29-22 | Washington v. Texas OVER 67 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 10 m | Show |
Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Texas at 9 pm et on Thursday. I don't expect either offense to have any trouble moving the football up and down the field, not to mention ending drives with 7's in this 'defense-optional' Bowl matchup. Texas will be without RBs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson but that should only lead to more passing and there's little reason to expect QB Quinn Ewers to be faced with any sort of resistance against the Huskies sieve-like pass defense. What will be an issue for Texas will be the gaping hole on defense left by the absence of LB DeMarvion Overshown. This isn't a particularly deep defense and Washington certainly has the pieces on offense to take advantage of any weaknesses. Note that the Huskies didn't suffer any sort of drop-off in production at all away from home this season, averaging 4.8 yards per rush and 8.3 yards per pass attempt. It's all systems go for the Huskies here with QB Michael Penix and the rest of his weapons healthy and ready to go. Of note, this will be Penix's first-ever Bowl game and I expect him to show up and show out. Take the over (10*). |
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12-27-22 | Jacksonville v. Notre Dame OVER 129 | Top | 43-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Notre Dame at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We won with Jacksonville in its most recent game but I think it's in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here as it travels to face Notre Dame which is in a 'sling-shot' situation after a tough three-game stretch that saw it face Marquette, Georgia and Florida State. With that being said, I don't think we see the Irish run away and hide in this one. Note that Jacksonville has impressively gone 7-3 despite facing the 32nd toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom. The Irish are actually allowing five more made field goals on only two additional shot attempts per game this season in comparison with the Dolphins. The two teams are virtually mirror images of one another offensive, from a statistical standpoint at least, in the early going this season. I expect both to find some success here and we're dealing with a reasonably low total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-24-22 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 47.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 39 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Saturday. It seems that the Eagles intentions are clear heading into this one as they're expected to give QB Gardner Minshew the start after Jalen Hurts injured his shoulder in last Sunday's win in Chicago. While it doesn't sound like Hurts' injury is all that serious, he's likely to sit as Philadelphia owns a comfortable three-game cushion atop the NFC East. While there are some that believe backup Minshew can keep the train rolling offensively, I'm not in that group. I don't expect the Eagles to put a whole lot on Minshew's plate here. The Eagles still have enough offensive playmakers to churn out some long, clock-eating drives but I question how many of those drives they can end with seven points on the board. The Cowboys probably aren't all that interested in getting involved in another shootout here - not after last week's disappointing overtime loss in Jacksonville. They've now seen the 'over' cash in four straight and six of their last seven games overall but I look for that streak to end here. Note that the first meeting between these two teams totalled 43 points. That was with Cooper Rush at quarterback for the Cowboys of course. I do think we see Dallas scale back its offense a bit here after turning the football over five times in the last two games. While Philadelphia is without Hurts on offense, its defense remains healthy and poised to shoulder the load here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat UNDER 224 | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers scored 117 points in an upset victory in Boston last time out but needed a whopping 98 field goal attempts to get there. It's highly unlikely they come close to approaching that level of production here as Miami has held five of its last seven opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts, including these same Pacers back on December 12th, in a game that totalled just 169 points. For their own part, the Heat aren't scoring with much consistency right now, knocking down 40 or more field goals just once in their last six contests. The Pacers have quietly held the opposition in check lately, yielding just 38, 39 and 39 made field goals over their last three games. Take the under (10*). |
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12-18-22 | Eagles v. Bears UNDER 48.5 | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. While this game is being pegged as a potential shootout, I believe there's a good chance we see both offenses frustrated on Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field. The Eagles are in a prime letdown spot offensively after scoring a season-high 48 points in last Sunday's rout of the Giants (we won with Philadelphia in that game). The Bears come out fresh off their bye week but with an offense that has regressed, scoring 24, 10 and 19 points over the last three games since putting up 30 or more points in consecutive games earlier in November. The 'over' has actually cashed in each of the Bears last seven contests but this game matches the highest total we've seen over that stretch. For the Eagles, this is the highest total we've seen since October 9th in Arizona - a game that ended up reaching just 37 total points. Both defenses should be familiar with what they'll face on Sunday as quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields are two of the most mobile pivots in the league and the defenses see them operate every day at practice. I believe there's a good chance this develops into a bit of a chess match on Sunday afternoon in the Windy City. Take the under (10*). |
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12-17-22 | Islanders v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in the Islanders 4-3 loss in Boston earlier this week but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they look to snap their three-game skid in Las Vegas on Saturday. Note that the 'over' has cashed in each of the Isles last two games. That's notable as the 'under' has gone 26-9 with the Isles coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of just 4.4 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 14-5 with New York playing on the road off consecutive games that totalled seven goals or more over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 4.7 goals in that situation. It's a similar story for the Golden Knights as they've posted a 10-21 o/u mark when coming off a road win by two goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with an average total of only 5.1 goals scored in that spot. In fact, the 'under' is 11-1-3 in the Knights 15 home games to date this season, averaging just 4.7 total goals per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills OVER 43 | Top | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
AFC Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two AFC East foes this season but probably deserved a better fate after that game got off to a quick start but stalled out thanks to a number of failed red zone trips from the Bills. Miami played keep-away in the south Florida heat on that day in late September, needing to do so to keep its banged-up defense off the field as much as possible. I expect a much different story to unfold in Buffalo on Saturday. Miami has been held down offensively in consecutive losses to the 49ers and Chargers but I expect it to 'get right' here. The Bills are going to be without key run-stopper Jordan Phillips while Matt Milano is banged-up as well. That should open the door for the Fins to restore some offensive balance and ultimately feed Buffalo's front-line a heavy dose of RB Raheem Mostert. The success of Miami's ground game figures to open things up for Tua Tagovailoa and its suddenly dormant passing attack. I'm never all that worried about where the points will come from when it comes to the Bills. They were held in check for the most part against a tough Jets defense last Sunday but should bounce back in sling-shot fashion here. Miami's defense has been good for stretches but has been on the field for an awful lot of football over the last two weeks (thanks to the ineptitude of the offense) and now faces the unenviable task of containing the Bills on a short week, not to mention on the road for the third straight game. This is a blow-up spot for Bills WR Stefon Diggs as Dolphins top corner Xavien Howard hasn't looked right all season due to various injuries. We're seeing a sharp drop from the total in the first meeting this season (that total was set in the low-50's). I don't believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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12-16-22 | Hawks v. Hornets UNDER 234.5 | Top | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Friday night in Charlotte. The Hawks have gotten drilled in the first two games of their current road trip, allowing 128 and 135 points in lopsided defeats in Memphis and Orlando. You have to imagine they'll be looking to button things up defensively in this one, noting that they've actually allowed 120 points or more in four straight games heading in. The good news is, they've allowed just 91 and 116 points in their last two trips to Charlotte going back to last season with neither of those contests coming close to approaching the lofty total we're dealing with tonight. Charlotte is reeling as well having lost six consecutive games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 26-13 with the Hornets playing at home off a loss over the last three seasons, 13-3 when playing at home off two straight losses over the last two seasons and 9-1 when at home following three consecutive defeats over the same stretch. Perhaps better still, the 'under' is 15-5 with Charlotte playing at home after losing four or five of its last six games ATS over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of only 214.5 points in that spot - a full 20 points below the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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12-16-22 | Miami-OH v. UAB OVER 45 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami-Ohio and UAB at 11:30 am et on Friday. I can't help but feel this total is way off. Neither of these teams have shown any ability to stop or even slow opposing ground attacks, at least lately in the case of Miami-Ohio and all season long when it comes to UAB. The Blazers boast one of the most underrated or overlooked 1-2 tandems in the backfield in the nation in RBs Dewayne McBride and Jermaine Brown and figure to feast on a Miami-Ohio defense that never really got it together over the course of the season. On the flip side, the Blazers were eviscerated for 172 rush yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush over the course of the season. While the Redhawks backfield hasn't been all that explosive, I do think their ability to run the football should open things up for the passing game here. It's worth noting that three of Miami-Ohio's five highest-scoring performances of the season came in its last four contests. UAB's defense - much like Miami-Ohio's - entered the season with optimism but was never able to truly flourish, allowing 20 or more points in 10 of 11 games against FBS opposition. The only occasion where it did hold an FBS opponent to fewer than 20 points that contest still reached 55 total points in a rout of Middle Tennessee State. Take the over (10*). |
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12-13-22 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. While last season's three meetings between these two teams included two 'under' results, this is actually a surprisingly strong 'over' spot on Tuesday night in Beantown. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-8 with the Isles coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.4 goals. Likewise, the 'over' is 17-9 with New York coming off four or five losses in its last six games, as is the case here, over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 6.3 goals. Even better still, the 'over' is 8-1 in the Isles last nine games off a home loss, good for an average total of 7.6 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Bruins have had a tendency to let down their guard off big road wins, with the 'over' going 21-9 in their last 30 games following a road victory by two goals or more, leading to an average total of 6.6 goals. The 'over' is also 18-8 in Boston's last 26 contests after holding its last opponent to one goal or less, resulting in an average total of 6.5 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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12-12-22 | Wolves v. Blazers UNDER 232.5 | Top | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams combined to score 242 points in the front half of this two-game set in Portland on Saturday. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring result, however, with both teams getting off just 83 field goal attempts. Both the Wolves and Blazers shot the lights out in that contest but I expect to see some adjustments made and better defense played in Monday's rematch. Keep in mind, these two teams met four times last season and we didn't see the 'over' hit in consecutive meetings on any occasion. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-10 with the Wolves coming off a loss by six points or less over the last three seasons and has cashed three out of four times it has followed four consecutive games shooting 47% or better from the field over the same stretch. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 17-10 with the Blazers playing at home with a total of 230 points or higher over the last three seasons and 5-1 when coming off a win by six points or less this season. We've seen Portland post consecutive 'over' results on only three previous occasions this season and all three times its next contest stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-11-22 | Browns v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think we see a 'slingshot effect' from the Browns offense here in QB Deshaun Watson's second game back under center following a nearly two-year absence from game action. Watson didn't look good against an awful Texans defense last week, but Cleveland still found a way to manufacture 27 points and I do think that bodes well going forward. This is a game where the Browns likely find themselves playing from behind in which case we should see them open the playbook far more than they did last week against Houston. The Bengals offense figures to smash in this spot as they catch an already struggling Browns defense without key run-stopping LB Sione Takitaki. All indications are that RB Joe Mixon will be back on the field and of course Ja'Marr Chase is back healthy as well, ready to go off on a vulnerable Browns secondary. While division games often lead to tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affairs, that hasn't been the case in this particular matchup, at least not in Cincinnati, where the last four meetings have produced 57, 71, 56 and 55 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 52 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 34 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. With Minnesota coming off consecutive 'over' results and Detroit fresh off a high-scoring result of its own last week at home against the Jaguars, I feel this total will prove too high as these two NFC North opponents square off on Sunday afternoon in the Motor City. The Vikings offense really has nowhere to go but down after scoring 60 points combined in consecutive home wins over the Patriots and Jets over the last two weeks. While Detroit's defense was down-trodden earlier in the campaign, this is a unit that has improved as the season has gone on, allowing just 60 points over its last three games combined. Meanwhile, Minnesota has yielded more than 26 points only twice this season with those two poor performances coming in consecutive weeks against the Bills and Cowboys back in November. The Vikes 'D' should be brimming with confidence after saving last week's victory over the Jets with a goal-line stand in the waning seconds. We'll certainly look to fade the Lions offense here after it put up 40 or more points for the second time this season in last week's win over the Jags. The last time Detroit scored 40+ points it followed it up by getting shut out in New England the very next week. While another shutout certainly isn't likely here, I do think both defenses come up with enough stops to keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-06-22 | Kings v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams have met three times since the start of last season, including a 3-2 Senators victory in Los Angeles just over a week ago. Of those three games, only one came all that close to going 'over' the total and that was thanks only to an empty-net goal from the Kings in a 4-2 win last season. The lone matchup between them here in Ottawa since the start of last season resulted in a 2-0 Los Angeles victory. The Sens did explode for five goals in their most recent contest but that came against the lowly Sharks. In fact, the only other occasion where Ottawa scored more than three goals over its last eight games came against another of the league's worst teams in the Ducks. Los Angeles will undoubtedly be looking to tighten things up here off a 1-3 homestand. Noting that the 'under' is 25-13 with an average total of just 5.5 goals scored when the Sens play at home after their previous contest totalled seven or more goals, we'll confidently back the 'under' here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 41.5 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll stick with what works here and call for another low-scoring start between the Saints and Buccaneers on Monday night in Tampa. The first time these two teams met this season they combined to score three, yes three, first half points (New Orleans led 3-0 at the break). In fact, the first half 'under' has gone an incredible 10-1 in all Bucs games this season with the only outlier being a wild, high-scoring affair against the Chiefs in Week 4. New Orleans has scored a grand total of 23 first half points in its last four games combined. You would have to go back six games to find the last time it allowed more than 14 points in the first half and that's only happened three times in 12 games so far this season. As for Tampa Bay, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time it put up more than 14 first half points. In fact, it has been held to 10 or fewer first half points in four of its last five contests. Alvin Kamara is one of the Saints lone weapons on offense and he faces a tough matchup here given the fact that the Bucs have all but stamped out opposing running backs, both on the ground and through the air this season. Only one team has allowed fewer catches to opposing running backs, which is obviously Kamara's bread-and-butter. While the Bucs offense showed signs of life last week in Cleveland, this is still very much an under-achieving group facing a revenge-minded Saints squad on Monday. Tom Brady has posted unremarkable results in three of five career matchups against Dennis Allen-coached defenses and just lost one of his best offensive linemen in Tristan Wirfs to an ankle injury. We'll play the first half 'under' only in this spot given the Saints could turn to QB Jameis Winston for a spark against his old team should Andy Dalton struggle early on. Take the first half under (10*). |
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12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout potential as the Texans look to avenge last year's 31-21 loss to the Browns. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in last year's meeting but I don't believe the move is warranted. It has everything to do with the fact that the Texans have been involved in a string of relatively low-scoring games with the 'under' cashing in each of their last three contests. The Browns posted an 'under' result last week as well as they pulled out a 23-17 overtime win over the Bucs. Here, Cleveland's offense figures to get a boost from the return of QB Deshaun Watson. While Watson is dealing with returning from a long layoff, he draws an ideal matchup against a Texans defense that has seen things go from bad to worse. Houston checks in having allowed 29, 24, 23 and 30 points over its last four games, getting ethered by both the pass and the run. The Browns held up alright defensively on paper last week against the Bucs, but this is still a vulnerable unit that doesn't do anything particularly well. The Texans will give QB Kyle Allen another start in place of an ineffective Davis Mills. Allen was at least in sync with WR Nico Collins last Sunday, hitting him on six of nine targets. WR Brandin Cooks is expected to miss this game but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he's been virtually invisible this season. RB Dameon Pierce remains the focal point of the Texans offense and he should bounce back with a full workload after being taken out of the gameplan thanks to Houston trailing big early last week in Miami. The Browns have been touched up for 4.8 yards per rush attempt this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-03-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-45 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Troy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We got precisely the results we wanted out of both of these teams over the last couple of games to set us up exceptionally well with the 'under' in this Sun Belt Conference Championship matchup on Saturday. Both teams saw their last two contests go 'over' the total, not only that, but both were turnover-prone in their respective regular season finale, leading them to perhaps approach this game with a little more caution than they might have otherwise. For Coastal Carolina, there's certainly reason to go ultra-conservative on offense in this game with QB Jarrett Guest struggling since taking over for NFL prospect Grayson McCall. Guest was directly responsible for two turnovers in each of the last two games (his two starts since McCall went down with a season-ending injury). Facing an opportunistic and perennially-tough Troy defense here, the Chanticleers won't want to leave anything to chance, perhaps putting this game largely in the hands of their defense (which is in line for a strong bounce-back effort after a poor performance against James Madison last week). Troy hung 48 points on the scoreboard in last week's rout of hapless Arkansas State. Keep in mind, however, that the Trojans actually didn't reach the end zone for a second time in that game until there were less than five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Like Guest, Troy QB Gunnar Watson has also been mistake-prone tossing an interception to go along with a lost fumble in last week's contest. The Trojans, like the Chanticleers, want to run the football, but will be running into a Coastal Carolina defense that has held up reasonably well against the run this season, allowing 4.0 yards per rush overall and 3.7 away from home. Down the stretch the Chanticleers stiffened up against opposing ground attacks, yielding fewer than 90 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Coastal Carolina has put up 36, 42 and 35 points in winning the last three meetings in this series but they didn't match up in the regular season this year, and we're obviously talking about much different Chanticleers squads, certainly in those games with McCall at the helm of the offense. Noting that Troy has held seven straight opponents to fewer than 20 points but also finds itself in a letdown of sorts offensively off its highest-scoring performance of the season, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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12-02-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 233 | Top | 117-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met last week they combined to score 239 points as, you guessed it, the Spurs lost and failed to cover, currently mired in a seven-game ATS losing streak. You would have to go back three games to find the last time a San Antonio game stayed 'under' the total while the Pelicans check in off an 'over' result themselves and have played to the 'under' just once in their last four contests. I'll go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we're dealing with a higher posted total than we saw when these teams met on November 23rd. Prior to their last game on Wednesday in Oklahoma City, the Spurs had been doing a good job of at least limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, allowing 85 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight contests. That changed on Wednesday as they yielded 94 FG attempts in the Thunder's come-from-behind victory. I'll chalk that up as a 'game-script' related performance as the Thunder pushed the pace due to the fact they were trailing most of the way. Here, the Pelicans should be able to control proceedings and we'll note that they check in having hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in four straight and six of their last seven games overall. San Antonio's last two opponents have 'shot the lights out' as I like to say, but that actually sets the 'under' up well here, noting that the 'under' has gone 19-8 the last 27 times the Spurs previous two opponents shot 50% or better from the field, resulting in an average total of 221.7 points in that situation. The Pelicans also saw their most recent opponent shoot well, with the Raptors knocking down just shy of 48% of their FG attempts against them on Wednesday. Keep in mind, New Orleans is just one game removed from limiting the Thunder to 34-of-92 (37%) shooting in a game that totalled 'only' 206 points. Finally, I'll note that the Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram again on Friday as he deals with a toe injury. He contributed 17 points and added 10 assists the last time these two teams met. Meanwhile, the Spurs are dealing with a number of key injuries. Of note, Doug McDermott, currently listed as questionable to play on Friday, poured in 21 points when these two teams matched up last week. Take the under (10*). |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New England at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Bills Thanksgiving Day victory in Detroit last Thursday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they stay on the road to face the division-rival Patriots in Foxborough. While Buffalo has still put up 30, 31 and 28 points over its last three contests, it hasn't looked totally in-sync. Whether that has to do with Josh Allen's injury is up for debate. With the Patriots having had an extra couple of days to prepare for this tall task, I do think we'll see their defense, which is still underrated at this late stage of the season in my opinion, keep Allen and Co. in check, relatively-speaking at least. I'm willing to chalk up last week's allowance of 33 points in Minnesota as an aberration as the Pats suffered a 'shock to the system' of sorts after facing the Jets (twice) and Colts over a three-week span heading in. I think we see their defense bounce back here. On the flip side, the Pats have gone fairly conservative offensively ever since Mac Jones orchestrated a turnover-fest against the Bears in a Monday nighter in late October. Since then, the Pats have turned the football over just twice in four games, without a single TO in their last two. While the Bills are known for their offense, they can play elite defense as well and while losing Von Miller to an injury hurts, the rest of the defense is as healthy as it's been in quite some time off the extended week. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in Bills road games this season. We've also seen the 'under' go 6-1 with Buffalo coming off consecutive games totalling 50 or more points over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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11-30-22 | Rangers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers are reeling off three straight losses and we've successfully faded them in their last two contests as they blew a 3-0 third period lead in a 4-3 loss to the Oilers and a 2-0 first period lead in a 5-3 defeat at the hands of the Devils, with both games coming at home. Here, they'll obviously be looking to tighten things up and I do think they benefit from stepping down in class after facing the first-place Devils on Monday to take on the second-last (in the Eastern Conference) Senators on Wednesday. Ottawa does check in off consecutive wins out west but now faces the tough 'first game back off a long road trip' situation, noting that New York has been much tougher defensively on the road compared to at home this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-11 with the Rangers coming off a home loss over the last two seasons and better still, the 'under' is 13-2 when that home defeat came by two goals or more, as is the case here. That latter situation has produced an average total of just 4.8 goals. All three of last season's matchups between these two teams totalled six goals or less with the two games played here in Ottawa reaching only five and three total goals. Take the under (10*). |
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11-27-22 | Canada v. Croatia OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 115 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Canada and Croatia at 11 am et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring contest between two squads that appear to have 'no love lost' heading in. Both sides could certainly use the three points from this match with Canada off a 1-0 loss to Belgium and Croatia following up on an uninspiring draw with Morocco in their respective tournament openers. I'm confident the Croatians can put the Canadians on their back foot early on, noting that they've scored first in five of their last six matches. Canada couldn't break through against Belgium but certainly showed plenty of promise, taking the play to the much higher ranked squad in Wednesday's shutout loss. I'm confident we'll see the Canadians finally break through with their first World Cup goal in this match - I'm just not convinced it will be enough to come away with point(s), speaking to the potential of a 2-1 result. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 60.5 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Ole Miss at 7 pm et on Thursday. While this isn't Army-Navy, these two teams have now gone 'under' each of the last five times they've met over the last five seasons. I'm expecting that trend to continue on Thursday. The Bulldogs offense hasn't been the same high-octane scoring machine it was earlier in the campaign. Yes, they exploded for 56 points last Saturday, but that was against FCS squad East Tennessee State. They were held to fewer than 20 points in three of four games prior to that and in the other scored only three offensive touchdowns in regulation time against Auburn. It's been a similar story for Ole Miss as its offense has struggled as the schedule has toughened up. Last Saturday against Arkansas, the Rebels didn't score a touchdown until nearly a minute into the fourth quarter, when the game was already well in hand for the Razorbacks, up 42-6. Two games back against Alabama, Ole Miss couldn't muster a single point from seven minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Even the game prior to that, an eventual 31-28 win over Texas A&M, the Rebels scored a touchdown less than two minutes into the game but then didn't reach the end zone again until nearly midway through the third quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. Last Thanksgiving, we saw the Cowboys fall in a wild, high-scoring shootout against the Raiders (in overtime) but I expect a much different story to unfold in this year's instalment as Dallas draws a divisional foe in the New York Giants. Of course, the Giants allowed a season-high 31 points in last Sunday's home loss against the Lions. While they're dealing with some key injuries in the secondary, I do expect them to at the very least do a better job of defending the Cowboys than the Vikings did last Sunday (we won with Dallas and the 'under' in that game). The presence of DT Leonard Williams has certainly made a difference for New York's run defense, noting that it has held opponents to 4.3 yards per rush over the last three games (5.3 ypr allowed this season). Don't count on the Giants abandoning the run the way the Vikings did against Dallas last Sunday (that was largely game-script related as they fell behind big early). While RB Saquon Barkley hasn't been his usual dominant self in recent weeks, the G-Men will still want to get all they can out of him in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives to effectively shorten this contest as double-digit underdogs. New York, unlike Minnesota, also has a mobile quarterback that can help in minimizing the effectiveness of Dallas' ferocious pass rush. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Giants have come off a game in which they allowed 31 or more points, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 31.5 points in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-22 | Bills v. Lions UNDER 54.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. This is the highest posted total on this week's NFL board and I believe it will prove too high at Ford Field on Thursday afternoon. The Bills offense 'should' have its way with a weak Lions defense in this one but I can't help but feel their ceiling is somewhat capped by QB Josh Allen's nagging elbow injury. He's coming off a poor performance against a very beatable Browns defense last Sunday and now plays on a short week, knowing he'll need to be somewhat cautious against an opportunistic Lions defense that has forced seven turnovers in the last three games. With injury concerns on their offensive line, I'm not expecting much from the Lions offense here. Speaking of capped ceilings, that's precisely what we've seen from Detroit's offense with QB Jared Goff at the helm. Note that while the Lions have scored 31 points in consecutive games, they've completed just 14, 19 and 17 passes for 137, 228 and 165 passing yards over their last three contests. I can't help but feel the optimal gameplan here involves making running backs Jamaal Williams and DeAndre Swift the focal point on Thursday afternoon, in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives to effectively shorten proceedings as a two-score underdog. Detroit's recent scoring spike has also had something to do with the fact that it has turned the football over just once over its last four games. It will need to be cautious here, however, noting that Buffalo has forced at least one turnover in seven straight games. Take the under (10*). |
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11-23-22 | Canada v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
Group Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Canada and Belgium at 2 pm et on Wednesday. While few expect Canada to make much noise in its first World Cup appearance in what seems like an eternity, there are those that feel Belgium may be a little less explosive than we've been accustomed to seeing entering Wednesday's opener. The absence of striker Romelu Lukaku certainly casts a heavy shadow over the Belgian side, but I'm confident we'll still see it thrive offensively against a Canadian side that isn't without its warts defensively. Milan Borjan checks in as one of the weakest goalkeepers in the entire tournament according to my own ratings. Miller and Johnston are wildcards at the back-end as they've performed well at the club level but it's a big jump from MLS to the World Cup stage and they'll have a trial by fire against one of the best squads in the World on Wednesday. This is without a doubt one of the weakest defenses across the board in the entire tournament. The question becomes whether the Canadians can break through offensively to help this total along and I do think they're catching the Belgians at the right time in that regard. Surprisingly, world class keeper Thibaut Courtois enters in less than top form after a string of poor performances, including against Egypt in a friendly warm-up match. Toby Alderweireld has also struggled in recent club play with Royal Antwerp - his responsibility is defending the middle of the field on the back line, an area I'm confident Canada can exploit with table-setter Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David looking to write a new chapter in Canadian soccer history. Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-22 | Pistons v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. Detroit enters this contest off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results against the Lakers and Kings after the first game on its current road trip totalled just 187 points. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting as the Pistons continue their road trip in Denver. The Nuggets are of course missing a number of key contributors right now and it has shown. They've managed to get off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. However, they have figured out how to stay competitive and that's by slowing the opposition, limiting three of their last four opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. Detroit quite simply shot the lights out last time out in Sacramento. While it has knocked down 43 and 47 field goals over its last two games, I'm not convinced that type of production is sustainable as it had been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of its previous eight contests. On the flip side, the Pistons have done a nice job of at least limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts. You would have to go back four games to find the last time Denver made good on more than 38 field goals, leaving it in a tough spot here should the pace stay down. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month (1H). My selection is on the first half 'under' between San Francisco and Arizona at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The 49ers have generally been slow starters offensively this season, scoring more than 14 points in the first half only once through their first seven games. While we won with the first half 'over' in last week's eventual victory over the Chargers, I won't hesitate to go the other way as they head to Mexico to face the Cardinals on Monday night. Arizona came up with its best defensive effort in weeks in a 27-17 victory over the Rams last week. I actually don't mind Colt McCoy at quarterback given the team's current state as he doesn't tend to stretch out plays and force the offensive line to block for extended periods the same way Kyler Murray does (McCoy also lacks Murray's elusiveness and mobility of course). This is obviously a favorable matchup for the 49ers vaunted defense but I do think the Cards can do enough to extend some drives and eat some clock early on. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense remains somewhat capped in terms of its ceiling with QB Jimmy Garropolo at the helm. My concern for the full game 'under' in this one is that the Cards defense wears down and ends up getting exposed by San Francisco's ground attack and middle-of-the-field passing attack as the game goes on. Early, I do think the Cards can hang, however. Here, we'll note that the first half 'under' is 8-2 with the Niners coming off four or five wins in their last six games over the last three seasons and 5-1 with the Cards following up consecutive 'over' results over the same stretch. Take the first half under (10*). |
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11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 52 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. The first matchup between these teams came back in Week 2 and was not surprisingly pegged as a shootout but fizzled somewhat as the Chiefs pulled out a 27-24 victory that stayed just 'under' the total. While both offenses are missing or dealing with some banged-up key pieces, I believe we're in for a true back-and-forth shootout in Sunday night's rematch. Kansas City's offense keeps rolling along with a 'next man up' philosophy, particularly at the wide receiver position where QB Patrick Mahomes serves as a true talent-elevator. The Chiefs backfield has been a revolving door this season as well but should feast on a Chargers defense that hasn't been able to even slow opposing running games this season and now deals with a cluster of injuries along its defensive line. Los Angeles is expected to have wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back on the field on Sunday. Regardless whether they're 100% healthy, their presence alone should give the offense a much-needed boost after it stalled in the second half against the 49ers last week. QB Justin Herbert has fared exceptionally well against this Chiefs defense in recent years and should be in for another boxscore-stuffing performance on Sunday night. Given Kansas City's tendency to allow opposing running backs to get loose in the short passing game, Chargers RB Austin Ekeler sets up well to go off in this matchup as well. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 in the Chargers last nine games following a road loss, resulting in an average total of 55.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-20-22 | Toronto v. Winnipeg UNDER 49 | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 6 pm et on Sunday. To me, this has been a rather uneventful CFL season with things going mostly as planned with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers entering the Grey Cup favored to win once again. While I do think Winnipeg ultimately wins this game, I'm not interested in laying the points here. Instead, I'll call for the Blue Bombers defense to come up big again while both offenses play it conservatively enough to help keep this one 'under' what I consider to be an inflated total. In an odd quirk, this will be the first time either side faces a different opponent in the last four games. By that I mean, the Argos have faced Montreal in each of their last three contests while the Bombers are coming off three consecutive games against the Lions. These two teams faced each other just once during the regular season and the result was a 23-22 Winnipeg victory in Toronto. That game actually eclipsed the closing total by a half-point, so we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total here. I don't believe it's warranted. While Argos QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson avoided costly turnovers against Montreal last week, he has been turnover-prone over the course of the season and I don't believe Toronto wants to put too much on his plate here, especially with veteran RB and former Bomber Andrew Harris in the backfield. The same goes for the Bombers, at least to a certain extent, as they're always comfortable doing just enough offensively while putting most of the load on their elite defense, which has been the class of the CFL this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 6-3 the last nine times the Argos have sought revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent while the 'under' is 18-11 in Winnipeg's last 29 games when installed as a favorite. Take the under (10*). |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 48.5 | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 50 h 27 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Most have this game projected as a shootout between two of the NFC's elite teams in the friendly confines of U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. I'm not so easily convinced. Both teams are coming off poor defensive performances last week with the Cowboys coming away with an overtime loss against the down-trodden Packers and the Vikings coming from behind to defeat the Super Bowl-contending Bills, also in overtime. While Minnesota's defense continues to give up a ton of yardage to opposing offenses, it has done a reasonable job of limiting points, and more specifically touchdowns. Note that last week marked the first time all season the Vikings had yielded more than 26 points in a game. They haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since a three-game 'over' streak from Weeks 3 through 5. The Cowboys have one of the better defenses in the league but haven't shown it in the last couple of games against the Bears and Packers. That's been somewhat game-script dependent as they've been playing from ahead most of the way (something they don't necessarily project to do here in this near pk'em priced contest). Note that Dallas enters this game leading the NFL in sacks per game and only two teams have held the opposition to fewer yards per pass play. While you can run on these Cowboys, it seems that opponents are rarely able to resist the urge to test their aggressive pass defenders, often leading to negative results. Here, we'll note that the Cowboys have checked in as a road favorite of a field goal or less only twice over the last three seasons and both of those games stayed 'under' the total. The 'under' is also 9-4 in the Vikings last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous contest and 25-12 the last 37 times they've played at home after winning six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 42.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-19-22 | Jazz v. Blazers OVER 222.5 | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Jazz were involved in a wild, high-scoring affair against the Suns last night, with that 'over' result snapping a brief two-game 'under' streak. I look for another relatively high-scoring contest on Saturday as the top two teams in the Northwest Division (currently) match up in Portland. While Utah's offense has been terrific, I'm still concerned about its lack of defense. Note that the Jazz have now allowed four of their last five opponents to knock down 44 or more field goals. Three of their last five opponents have gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts. The opportunities are there and I expect the Blazers to take advantage as they look to bounce back from a near-miss against the Nets two nights ago. While Portland has been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent by holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts, that hasn't stopped the opposition from making good on 40+ attempts in three consecutive games. Noting that this was a favorable matchup for Utah all of last season (the Jazz scored 129, 120, 123 and 111 points in four meetings) and arguably plays faster and with more efficiency this season, the Blazers should have their hands full defensively in this one. That being said, Portland is back at virtually full strength and will undoubtedly have its legs under it as it wraps up a three-game homestand off a day's rest. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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11-19-22 | Virginia Tech v. Liberty UNDER 47 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a low-scoring affair between the down-trodden Hokies and upstart Flames on Saturday afternoon. Virginia Tech won two of its first three games this season but has gone winless in seven games since. While you might not know it by last week's 24-7 loss to Duke, I don't think the Hokies have quit on the season. This is still a talented defensive team at the very least and one that can relish the role of spoiler in the final two games of the regular season. Note that for as bad as things have gone for the Hokies and for as little the offense has been able to produce and stay on the field, they've actually held their last four opponents to 20, 22, 28 and 24 points. There was a stretch in late-September and early-October where their defense got worn down but we have seen that unit regroup and play the way it can lately. Now it faces a Liberty offense that has kept rolling along despite missing a number of key contributors due to injuries, including its top two quarterbacks on the depth chart and standout RB Dae Dae Hunter. The 'next man up' philosophy on that side of the football certainly worked last week as the Flames scored 33 points, albeit in a losing effort against UConn. They will face a tougher defensive challenge here, and I would anticipate perhaps a more conservative, ball control type of offensive gameplan given QB Jonathan Bennett's turnover-prone nature so far. The Liberty defense suffered a letdown against the Huskies last week but that was to be expected after holding Arkansas to 19 points in a stunning upset win the week previous. Note that Liberty has still held three of its last four opponents to 20 points or less and should be able to contain a Hokies offense that scored a touchdown less than two minutes in against Duke last week but then never hit the scoresheet again. Take the under (10*). |
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11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New Orleans at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We saw two relatively low-scoring affairs between these two teams last season but I expect a different story to unfold on Friday in New Orleans. Boston enters this game locked-in offensively, knocking down 46+ field goals in four of its last five games. Concerning, however, is the fact that the Celtics have allowed their last two opponents to get off a whopping 98 and 101 field goal attempts. In fact, seven of the C's last 10 opponents have hoisted up 90+ FG attempts. Not only that but seven of their last nine foes have knocked down more than 40 field goals. New Orleans certainly appears set to take advantage as it has made good on 42+ field goals in six of its last seven games and more than 40 in nine of its last 10 contests. However, like the Celtics, the Pelicans have proven vulnerable at times defensively, yielding 43+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-22 | Baylor v. Virginia UNDER 133.5 | Top | 79-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. We've seen the 'over' go a combined 5-0 in these two teams' first five games but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Las Vegas on Friday. While Baylor's offense has garnered most of the attention, it has quietly been in midseason form defensively as well. The Bears check in having allowed just 49, 48 and 56 field goal attempts through three games. Yes, they've faced inferior competition but it's not as if today's opponent, Virginia, will be looking to really push the pace offensively. The Cavaliers have scored 73 and 89 points in winning their first two games, also against inferior competition, but have hoisted up just 47 and 54 field goal attempts. They quite simply shot the lights out against Monmouth last time out, leading to their highest-scoring performance of the young season. Like Baylor, Virginia has been locked-in defensively, holding its first two opponents to only 53 and 41 FG attempts. Both teams have been lighting it up from three-point range while also getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. That changes as they both step up in class in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-22 | Kings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. These aren't the same Kings we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. Previous Los Angeles' clubs wouldn't have been able to sniff out a comeback in a game like Monday's in Calgary. In that contest, the Kings fell behind 5-2 and 6-3 but ultimately rallied for a narrow 6-5 defeat, coming one near-miss from tying the game in the closing minute. Los Angeles has now scored nine goals over its last two contests and checks in averaging 3.7 goals per game (an average total of 7.8 goals) on the road this season. The Oilers are back home following a three-game road trip that saw them win two games. They're averaging 3.8 goals per game on home ice this season but also allowing an average of 3.8. Noting that the 'over' is 15-5 the last 20 times the Oilers have come off a win by 2+ goals, as is the case here, with that situation averaging a total of 7.4 goals, we'll confidently back the 'over' in Oil Country on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-22 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs pulled out a 103-101 win over the Clippers last night despite the visitors shooting a blistering 54% from the field. I'm not going to knock the Dallas defense for that performance as Los Angeles quite simply shot the lights out. Incredibly, the Mavs actually held the Clips to just 64 field goal attempts. Dallas has now held four of its last five opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and should have little trouble locking down one of the worst offenses in the league in the Rockets on Wednesday. Note that the Mavs themselves have topped out at just 86 FG attempts over their last eight contests. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six games. Stunningly bad on offense, Houston has been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in 11 of its last 12 contests. On a more positive note, the Rockets have at least been able to keep their opponents pace in check to a certain extent, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts. Take the under (10*). |
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11-15-22 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 212 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks are mired in an incredible ATS slump right now having gone eight games without covering the spread. While I do look for them to win this game on Tuesday night, we're dealing with another inflated pointspread so I prefer to play the 'under' in this spot, which is set up well with the Clippers coming off a relatively high-scoring 'over' result last night and Dallas checking in off consecutive 'overs'. Note that these two teams met four times last season with Dallas topping out at 112 points in those contests with two of them being settled in the 90's. The Mavs continue to do a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, having held six of their last seven opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts with six of those foes knocking down fewer than 40 of those attempts. From an offensive standpoint, Dallas has hoisted up 86 of fewer FG attempts in seven straight games. The Clippers certainly won't shy away from a low-event game in a back-to-back spot. Note that they've gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts in all 14 games this season. They've also limited seven straight opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts and four of their last five to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*). |
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11-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. After giving up 132 and 118 points in losing efforts to open this three-game road trip, I look for the Raptors to tighten things up considerably on Monday night in Detroit. Toronto has still held three of its last four opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, we find the Raptors down-trodden offensively missing a number of key contributors and having knocked down 38 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Pistons have lost three games in a row, allowing 117 points or more in each contest. Like the Raptors, they're struggling offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. Noting that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Pistons last 34 games when coming off consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of 216.4 points, we'll confidently take that position here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I believe this sets up as a smash spot for the 49ers offense against a Chargers defense that has been plagued by a number of key injuries and absolutely shredded by opposing ground attacks, allowing north of 6.0 yards per rush this season. Coming off their bye week and with all of their weapons healthy, including all-world o-lineman Trent Williams, the potential is there for Kyle Shanahan's offense to go off in this spot. I'll play the first half 'over' only as I do think there's a good chance the game becomes lopsided, in which case the Chargers would likely stray away from their effective ground game with RB Austin Ekeler while the 49ers could elect to take the air out of the football. The Niners opened the season with their first four games totalling just 20, 10, 20 and 20 first half points. Since then, their last three contests have reached 35, 27 and 24 points in the first half. Relatively high-scoring first halves have been commonplace for the Chargers this season as their games have reached 17, 23, 34, 38, 23, 38 and 24 points in the first 30 minutes. We can't ignore the Niners defensive injuries, which are numerous, opening the door for the Chargers to at least scheme up positive plays early in this contest. Again, my concern is that the visitors get forced to move away from a more balanced attack as the game progresses, noting that they're without their two top receivers in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Take the first half over (10*). |
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11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Texans aren't shying away from handing rookie RB Dameon Pierce a heavy workload as the centerpiece of their offense and that should pay dividends against a Giants defense that has given up a whopping 5.4 yards per rush this season. Houston's offense also gets back underrated WR Nico Collins for this one while it remains to be seen whether Brandin Cooks will return to the field or not. Regardless, I do think the Texans can make some headway, likely playing catch-up most of the day on Sunday. Speaking of bad run defenses, Houston has arguably been even worse than New York in that department. No team has given up more rushing yards or rushing touchdowns this season. That opens the door for another monster performance from Giants RB Saquon Barkley here. Of course, the Giants offense goes as Barkley goes and off their bye week I'm confident they'll get back on track here. Note that prior to losing 27-13 in Seattle last time out (we won with the Seahawks in that game), New York had scored 20+ points in four straight games. Even with a limited passing game, there's reason to believe Daniel Jones can have a one-off breakout performance against a Texans pass defense that has been flamed for 48-of-64 passing over their last three contests. Take the over (10*). |
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11-12-22 | San Jose State v. San Diego State UNDER 41.5 | Top | 27-43 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 43 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose State and San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but feel San Diego State's 32-28 loss to Fresno State two games back served as a 'watershed moment' for the team. The Aztecs leaned heavily on their defense last Saturday, prevailing by a 14-10 score over UNLV (we won with Rebels ATS in that game). With a severely disjointed offense, San Diego State will likely need to continue to ride its defense hard down the stretch and I think it's catching San Jose State at the right time here, as the Spartans are likely in for a letdown after scoring 35 and 28 points over their last two games. San Jose State can play some defense as well. The Spartans have incredibly held six of eight opponents to 17 or fewer points this season. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in six of their eight contests. Noting that last year's meeting between these two teams produced a grand total of just 32 points, I'm comfortable playing the 'under' again here, even as we work with a relatively low number. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-22 | South Carolina v. Florida UNDER 59.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Florida at 4 pm et on Saturday. South Carolina's offense got off to a roaring start this season, scoring 30+ points in four of its first five games. That had a lot to do with a very manageable non-conference schedule, however. Since then, the Gamecocks have put up 24, 30, 10 and 38 points with the latter performance coming against one of the worst defensive teams in the country in Vanderbilt last Saturday. Florida's defense has been ripped by the likes of Tennessee and Georgia but there's no shame in that. Outside of those two poor performances, the Gators 'D' has held up reasonably well and I'm confident it can stand up against what I still consider to be a fading Gamecocks offense (note that South Carolina gained four extra possessions thanks to turnovers last week and still scored 'only' 38 points against an awful Vandy defense). Florida is coming off a 41-point outburst in a win over Texas A&M last week but I don't think this is an offense built to deliver those type of point explosions on a regular basis. Note that the Gators have been held to 18 or fewer pass completions in five consecutive games, despite trailing most of the way in two of those contests. While the 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series, those games topped out at 66 points so not all that much higher than the number we're dealing with here. Also note that only three of those five contests surpassed Saturday's total (at the time of writing). Take the under (10*). |
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11-11-22 | Colorado v. USC UNDER 66.5 | Top | 17-55 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 48 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and USC at 9:30 pm et on Friday. After getting involved in three straight high-scoring shootouts - two resulting in victories - I can't help but feel the Trojans are looking to catch their breath in what should be a layup against lowly Colorado on Friday. USC needed all the offense it could get in posting wild wins over Arizona and California over the last two weeks. Here, it finally finds itself back in a 'name your score' type of contest against a Buffaloes squad licking its wounds off a 49-10 dismantling at the hands of Oregon last Saturday. Colorado has been held to 20 or fewer points in eight of nine games this season with the only outlier coming in a 42-34 loss to Arizona State two weeks ago - a game where the Buffaloes still mustered only 359 total yards of offense. While USC's offense has been rolling along, there has been an apparent ceiling with it topping out at 45 points over its last eight games (it did score 66 in its season-opener against Rice). I'm not convinced that will be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total as Colorado isn't likely to end many drives with 7's against a talented Trojans defense that should be in a foul mood after allowing 35 points against an oft-punchless Cal offense last Saturday. You would have to go back seven meetings in this series, all the way to 2014, to find the last time these two teams combined to put up more than 66 total points (which is the posted total at the time of writing). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 the last three times Colorado has come off consecutive losses against Pac-12 opponents in which it yielded 31+ points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 5-1 in USC's last six contests after gaining 450+ total yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-10-22 | Sharks v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are struggling mightily right now with St. Louis' issues coming completely out of left field giving all of the talent on its roster, not to mention the fact that it had gotten off to a perfect 3-0 start this season. Since then, the Blues have suffered eight consecutive losses and it's no secret what the problem has been as they simply can't score with any consistency. St. Louis has mustered two goals or less in eight of its last nine games. While the Sharks have been sieve-like defensively of late, they do come off a bye week of sorts, having not played since Saturday. They should be pleased to be hitting the road, where they've played a much cleaner brand of hockey, allowing only 2.7 goals per game. They don't figure to find much success breaking through offensively, however, as they've averaged just 2.0 goals per game on the road and you have to figure Blues head coach Craig Berube gave his team an earful following Tuesday's dreadful defensive effort in a 5-1 loss in Philadelphia. Note that the 'under' is 13-2 in the Blues last 15 games following eight or more consecutive losses, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks have seen the 'under' go 19-4 in their last 23 games after playing four consecutive games in which seven or more total goals were scored, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of just 4.8 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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11-10-22 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 217.5 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Hornets are mired in a serious shooting slump right now, due in part to injuries to key players but also just as a result of what looks like a broken offense. They don't figure to pick themselves up off the mat against one of the league's best defensive teams in the Heat on Thursday. Note that Charlotte has knocked down just 36, 33, 32, 42 and 34 field goals over its last five games. In the one outlier the Hornets still scored only 100 points in an eight-point home loss against the Wizards. On a positive note, we have seen Charlotte limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent, yielding just 84, 80 and 75 field goal attempts over its last three contests. The Hornets last two opponents, the Wizards and Blazers, have quite simply shot the lights out, something I don't envision the Heat doing on Thursday. Miami is in a bit of a slump of its own, making good on 40 or fewer field goals in five of its last six games. The pace still isn't there for the Heat as they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in nine straight games - of course that's partly by design. Few teams have been as stingy defensively as the Heat check in having allowed 76, 84, 86, 80 and 72 FG attempts over their last five games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Hornets last 34 games following consecutive ATS losses while the Heat have seen the 'under' go an incredible 10-1 in their last 11 home games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-09-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We're working with a considerably lower total than we saw in the first matchup between these in-city rivals this season. That game was of the low-scoring variety with the Clippers prevailing by a 103-97 score. Here, I'm expecting a different story to unfold, at least as far as the total is concerned. Few teams are struggling to defend as badly as the Lakers. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 95+ field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes knocking down 41+ field goals. In fact, three of their last four opponents have made good on a whopping 47+ field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers come in on a bit of an offensive run, knocking down 40+ field goals in four straight games - despite getting off only 84, 80, 87 and 79 FG attempts over that stretch. On the flip side, we've yet to see the Clips really lock in defensively as they continue to miss super-stopper Kawhi Leonard due to injury. Seven of the Clippers last 10 opponents have made good on 40+ field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 15-4 in the Lakers last 19 road games (which this technically is) after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 237.8 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-09-22 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 12 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'under' in both of these teams' games last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Bulls and Chippewas match up on Wednesday. Buffalo turned the football over three times in its 45-24 road loss against Ohio last week. Interestingly, the Bulls have forced a whopping eight turnovers over their last two games yet still scored 'only' 58 points combined in those contests. You would have figured all of those extra possessions would lead to more of a points explosion. Here, they'll be facing a Central Michigan squad that will be ultra-focused on taking care of the football after turning it over a whopping eight times itself over its last two games. It's also interesting to note that despite the Chips giving their last two opponents all of those extra possessions they 'only' gave up 56 points over those two games. Both teams want to run the football. Note that Buffalo hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since back on September 10th against FCS squad Holy Cross. Meanwhile, Central Michigan hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since Week 1 against Oklahoma State when it was in comeback mode for most of the game and racked up 424 yards through the air. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 in Buffalo's last 12 games when playing on the road after a road loss against a MAC opponent, resulting in an average total of just 50.1 points in that situation. The 'under' is also 4-2 in the Bulls last six games after their previous two contests totalled 60+ points. CMU has seen the 'under' cash four of the last times it has come off a game where it lost the turnover battle by at least two. Take the under (10*). |
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11-07-22 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 231 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and San Antonio at 9:40 pm et on Monday. These two teams just met on Saturday, posting an 'under' result as the Nuggets rolled to a 126-101 victory. We've seen an adjustment to the total in advance of Monday's rematch but I believe it's moving in the wrong direction. You could argue that San Antonio is the league's worst defensive team right now. The Spurs have allowed their last six opponents to stuff the boxscore, knocking down 52, 47, 40, 57, 42 and 53 field goals. While they did limit Denver to only 80 field goal attempts on Saturday, that was on the road. It's been a different story at home, where San Antonio has allowed four of its five opponents to get off 94+ field goal attempts. It's been a similar story for the Nuggets on the road, where they've allowed all five of their opponents to make good on 42+ field goals. Prior to Saturday's game, Denver had allowed each of its previous four opponents to attempt 90+ field goals. Take the over (10*). |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints UNDER 47 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Year (1H). My selection is on the first half ‘under’ between Baltimore and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. With both teams missing a number of key contributors on offense and both confident off wins last week, not looking to relinquish the momentum here, I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring first half on Monday night in New Orleans. Note that the first half ‘under’ is a perfect 6-0 with Baltimore coming off three ATS losses in its last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average first half total of just 13.3 points. Meanwhile, the first half ‘under’ is 11-3 with the Saints listed as an underdog over the last two seasons, which is also the situation here, leading to an average first half total of 19.9 points in that spot. Without Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman - their two biggest offensive threats apart from Lamar Jackson - I look for the Ravens to take a more methodical approach on offense, at least early in this game. Meanwhile, the Saints will be wary of QB Andy Dalton's tendency to turn the ball over (remembering that ugly Thursday night loss in Arizona two games back) against an opportunistic Ravens defense. I'm confident we'll see the Saints offense run through RB Alvin Kamara for the most part on Monday, noting that the Ravens have yielded 4.4 yards per rush this season. New Orleans best chance at winning this game likely comes from churning out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to shorten the game and give Jackson as few opportunities as possible to make an impact. Take the first half ‘under’ (10*). |
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11-06-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 49.5 | Top | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
NFC Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Lions home loss to the Dolphins last week and were fortunate to do so as Detroit's offense was non-existent for the entire second half. Here, both teams know exactly what to expect from their opponent in this divisional showdown. The Packers defense has been putting the clamps on opposing passing games but has proven vulnerable against the run. Detroit quite simply hasn't shown any tendency to stick with the run, abandoning it on a weekly basis, albeit somewhat game script dependent. Detroit's defense didn't have any answers for the Dolphins multi-pronged offensive attack last week but catch a break here, facing a depleted Packers offense that hasn't been able to get it going for any sustained periods this season. Last year's two matchups in this series were of the high-scoring variety. I think we see a different story here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-05-22 | California v. USC UNDER 60.5 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between California and USC at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. After getting involved in consecutive track meets on the road against Utah and Arizona, I look for USC to 'manage' this very winnable matchup with Cal on Saturday. The Golden Bears are mired in another trying campaign having lost four in row entering Saturday's matchup. They've had only two breakout performances offensively, one of those coming against FCS squad Cal-Davis and the other against the aforementioned Arizona Wildcats, who boast one of the worst defenses in the FBS. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 39-21 in Cal's last 60 road games following an 'over' result, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 52.9 points in that spot. The 'under' is also 28-14 in USC's last 42 contests after scoring 37+ points in consecutive games, which is also the situation here, resulting in 54.9 total points on average. Take the under (10*). |
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11-05-22 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 38 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday. Iowa opened the season with four 'under' results in its first five games but that changed in a 54-10 rout at Ohio State two weeks ago. That was a bit of a back-breaker of a defeat and from there we saw the Hawkeyes essentially ease off the pressure valve and the result was a 33-point explosion in a 20-point win over Northwestern last week. Now Iowa goes back on the road to face Purdue, and I'm not anticipating the type of defensive slugfest the oddsmakers are projecting. Note that we've seen a strong home-road dichotomy in terms of high and low-scoring games involving the Boilermakers in recent years. That's continued to a certain extent this year. Note that the Boilers have baited the likes of Penn State and Nebraska into back-and-forth shootouts here at home with those two contests totalling 66 and 80 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-6 in Iowa's last 22 games after losing three of its last four games, resulting in an average total of 50.5 points. Meanwhile, the Boilers have seen their last six games go 'over' the total after winning four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 69.3 points in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The 'over' has cashed in each of Dallas' last five games as the Mavs have knocked down 41+ field goals in four of those five contests. Keep in mind, we saw two games go to overtime over that stretch. Dallas has limited each of its six opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time this season and I expect it to keep Utah in check to certain extent here as well. The Jazz had a stretch earlier this season where they got off 93+ field goal attempts in three consecutive games, knocking down 43+ field goals in each of those contests. Since then, they've gotten off just 90, 91, 87 and 89 FG attempts over their last four games. I'm certainly anticipating some regression here after they laid waste to an undermanned Grizzlies defense in a two-game set in Salt Lake City over the weekend, making good on 45 and 42 field goals in those two contests. Different story here as the Mavs build off Sunday's game in which they limited the Magic to only 37 made field goals (that contest still found its way 'over' the total). Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-22 | Buffalo v. Ohio UNDER 58.5 | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While Buffalo is coming off an 'over' result, both of these teams are trending to the 'under' lately. The Bulls have seen three of their last four games stay 'under' the total and the same goes for Ohio. The only game that went 'over' the total during that stretch for the Bobcats came against the lowly Akron Zips in a contest where Ohio jumped ahead big early and eased off the gas defensively in a wild 55-34 win. Since then, the Bobcats have seen their last two games total just 47 and 41 points. Both teams want their offense to run through their ground attack. I do think both can find some success in that regard but that likely leads to plenty of long, clock-churning drives. Note that Buffalo has done an excellent job of stamping out opposing passing games, yielding more than 21 completions only twice while having yet to allow an opponent throw for 300+ yards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-6 the last 25 times Ohio has come off three straight wins in conference play with that spot producing an average total of only 45.9 points. The 'under' has gone 8-5 the last 13 times the Bulls have come off a game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-22 | Senators v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent game with the Senators notably yielding a whopping 58 shots on goal in a 5-3 loss to the Panthers. They've had a couple of days off to shake off that ugly performance and I fully expect the gritty Sens to rebound with a much sharper performance here. Meanwhile, the Lightning are in a bit of a hangover spot, returning home off a successful three-game road trip to California. The Bolts are unlikely to provide such an onslaught of shots as we saw from the Panthers, noting that they've fired 30 or fewer shots on goal in four consecutive games. Ottawa was on fire offensively for a four-game stretch in mid-October but has now scored just five goals in its last two games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Senators have played on the road after giving up 5+ goals in their previous game, resulting in an average total of 5.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 8:15 pm et on Monday. High-scoring games have been the norm in this series in recent years but I look for a different story to unfold on Monday night in Cleveland. The Browns offense has cooled off considerably following a hot start to the season. After scoring 26, 30 and 29 points in their first three games, they've put up just 20, 28, 15 and 20 points over their last four. Now they face a Bengals defense that I believe is far better than most give it credit for. The Cincinnati offense gets all of the hype with Joe Burrow and Ja'marr Chase going off on a weekly basis (Chase will of course miss this game - more on that in a moment). However, the defense has been outstanding, holding five of seven opponents to 20 points or less this season. Opposing passing games have been completely stymied and it's tough to envision Browns QB Jacob Brissett changing that trend, especially with underrated TE David Njoku slated to miss. Cleveland has topped out at 258 passing yards in a game this season. You know what you're going to get from the Browns as they look to run their offense through RB Nick Chubb (and Kareem Hunt). Theoretically, Cleveland is in line to feast with the Bengals missing key run stoppers D.J. Reader and Josh Tupou. However, rookie Zach Carter and Jay Tufele have stepped up in their absence. I mentioned that Cincinnati will be without WR Ja'marr Chase for this one. His absence can't be understated in my opinion. Yes, the Bengals are saying all of the right things with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, not to mention TE Hayden Hurst capable of picking up some of the slack. But you just don't replace a guy like Chase. With CB Denzel Ward among those sidelined for the Browns, this is a major break facing the Bengals without their top weapon in the passing game. I really think the Cincinnati offense will flow through RB Joe Mixon in this game as the Browns have proven vulnerable against the run. With that being said, I can't help but feel we'll see plenty of long, clock-churning drives from both offenses. Note that the 'under' is 12-3 in the Bengals last 15 road games and a perfect 10-0 in Cincinnati's last 10 games after being held to fewer than 100 rushing yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. The 'under' is a long-term 48-25 with the Browns playing at home off consecutive losses and 13-4 when playing at home after losing the turnover battle in three straight games. Those angles make sense when you consider the Bengals will likely look to get their ground game going again, most notably Mixon while the Browns do everything they can to take care of the football, perhaps at the expense of aggressiveness in the passing game. Take the under (10*). |
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10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 44 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a potential shootout inside the friendly confines of Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday. We inexplicably missed with the 'over' in Miami's strange 16-10 win over the Steelers last Sunday night (that contest featured a scoreless second half). The Dolphins jumped ahead early and then eased off the gas against a subpar Steelers squad - something I don't think they can afford to do against the Lions on Sunday. We were also on the 'under' in Detroit's rather uneventful loss in Dallas. I saw a lot of support for the 'over' in that contest last Sunday but I think those 'over' bettors were a week too early as Detroit was still nursing some key contributors back to health (and also lost Aman-Ra St. Brown to concussion protocols early in the game). St. Brown is expected back this week and should pace the Lions in what sets up as a dream matchup against a depleted Dolphins secondary. Detroit has been starved for an offensive breakout over the last two games - scoring a grand total of six points against the Patriots and Cowboys. This looks like an ideal spot for QB Jared Goff and the offense to bounce back with Miami missing Byron Jones, Nik Needham and now strong safety Brandon Jones as well after he tore his ACL. The Fins makeshift secondary did hold up alright against the Steelers, although Pittsburgh wasn't all that aggressive in that game. I expect a different story to unfold here as a banged-up Xavien Howard (he's been dealing with groin/quad injuries all season long) is left on an island against a loaded Lions offense. On the flip side, there's little reason to believe that Detroit's woeful defense can hold up well for a second straight game. We certainly saw flashes of brilliance from the Miami offense in last Sunday's win over the Steelers. QB Tua Tagovailoa looked no worse for wear after suffering multiple concussions, deftly distributing the ball to his playmakers. The Lions have been getting roasted by the better offenses they've faced all season, most notably allowing 5.4 yards per rush attempt. With Miami likely to smash on the ground, that only serves to set up plenty of big plays through the air against a very beatable Lions secondary. I think there's a good chance we see this one go back-and-forth all afternoon long with neither defense able to string together many stops. Note that the 'over' is 7-3 in the Dolphins last 10 games following consecutive 'under' results, which is the situation here. Better still, the 'over' is 9-2 in the Lions last 11 games when priced as a home underdog of a touchdown or less. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Pacers v. Nets UNDER 235 | Top | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have struggled out of the gates this season although Indiana did pick up a much-needed win in a high-scoring affair in Washington last night. The Nets have had a tough enough time just getting their shots off on offense, attempting fewer than 90 field goals in regulation time in all five games to date. We have seen them clamp down on the opposition over their last two contests, limiting the Bucks to 88 field goal attempts and the Mavericks to just 73 in regulation time last time out. The Pacers two lowest FGA numbers of the season to date have come in their last two games. They've knocked down 38, 37 and 41 field goals over their last three contests. On the flip side, Indiana has limited four of its last five opponents to 87 FGA or fewer. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | USC v. Arizona UNDER 76 | Top | 45-37 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 34 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between USC and Arizona at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Arizona's most recent game - a wild 49-39 loss against the Huskies in Washington two weeks ago. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Wildcats return home to host USC off their bye week on Saturday. The fact that Arizona was able to keep pace (to a certain extent) with Washington was no big surprise as that's been the Huskies M.O. this season - jump ahead and then let their opponent back in the game. The Wildcats have bombed away for 400+ passing yards against the likes of Cal, Colorado and Washington but I suspect they'll have a much more difficult time doing so against the well-rested Trojans here. USC is coming off a wild game of its own, falling by a 43-42 score on the road against Utah on October 15th. That marked the first time this season that USC allowed more than 257 yards through the air and I'm confident it will make amends here. Note that the Trojans have topped out at 42 points in three road games this season and I'm not sure even that crooked number would be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total. I don't think USC wants to get involved in another track meet here, knowing that Arizona does have the QB in Jayden De Laura and receiving corps to potentially pull off a stunner. Instead, I look for the Trojans to lean on their ground attack, as they often have this season (they've topped out at 25 pass completions in a game), churning out long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten proceedings and stamp out any hope of a Wildcats upset. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 53-31 with USC coming off a game in which it scored 42+ points while the 'under' is 21-9 in Arizona's last 30 home contests after dropping consecutive games in-conference, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State UNDER 56 | Top | 0-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Kansas State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. After suffering a bad beat with the 'under' in Oklahoma State's double-overtime loss at TCU two weeks ago we went back to the well with the same play as the Cowboys returned home to host Texas last week. Unfortunately that result didn't go our way either as a high-scoring first half was ultimately the downfall for 'under' bettors such as ourselves. Here, I won't hesitate to take another shot with the 'under', however, as the Cowboys head back on the road to face upstart Kansas State, which checks in off a 38-28 loss to TCU last Saturday. In that loss against TCU, Kansas State lost do-it-all QB Adrian Martinez to injury. It remains to be seen whether he can play this week although it sounds like he's on the doubtful end of the spectrum. Regardless, I do expect the Oklahoma State defense to step up and carry over some positive momentum after holding Texas out of the end zone over the game's final 33+ minutes in a tight affair last week. It was the opposite story for Kansas State. It jumped ahead 28-10 in the second quarter against TCU and probably thought it would be able to cruise from there. Things didn't go as planned as the Horned Frogs went on to score the game's final 28 points in a 10-point victory. Without Martinez, the Wildcats were unable to score over the game's final 38+ minutes. Note that none of the last four meetings between these two teams over the last four years have come all that close to getting 'over' the total we're dealing with this week. The fact that the Cowboys have seen each of their last five games and six of seven overall go 'over' the total this season is a big reason why we're being offered such a generous total. Keep in mind, Kansas State is just one game removed from a contest that totalled just 19 points against Iowa State. Earlier in the season, the Wildcats were upset at home against Tulane in a game that reached only 27 points. Noting that the 'under' remains 40-23 in Oklahoma State's last 63 road games following an 'over' result and 35-17 the last 52 times it has gone 'away' off consecutive games totalling 70+ points, we'll go back to the well with the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 3 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Ohio State has been tearing through the opposition, scoring 45 points or more in all six games since putting up only 21 points in a low-scoring win over Notre Dame to open the campaign. Here, I do think there's a path for Penn State to stay competitive and ultimately do a reasonably good job of keeping the Buckeyes defense under wraps. Note that while Ohio State did score 54 points in a rout of Iowa last week, a lot of the Hawkeyes issues were self-inflicted. After scoring a touchdown around midway through the first quarter, Ohio State didn't reach the end zone again on offense until more than five minutes into the third quarter. Penn State bounced back nicely from a drubbing a the hands of Michigan one week previous, delivering a 45-17 rout of Minnesota on Saturday. Note that the Nittany Lions didn't allow a touchdown in that game until they were already ahead 17-3 with less than a minute remaining in the first half. The Golden Gophers didn't score again until nearly midway through the fourth quarter, already trailing by a score of 38-10 at the time. Note that Penn State has held five of its last six opponents to 17 points or less. Of course Ohio State poses a serious challenge and will undoubtedly score its share of points in this contest, but I don't anticipate Penn State getting ripped the way it did against Michigan's run-heavy attack two weeks ago. Offensively, the Nittany Lions gameplan should involve orchestrating long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten this contest and keep the ball out of the hands of the high-powered Ohio State offense. I do think that's well within the realm of possibility with seasoned QB Sean Clifford running the offense. The Nittany Lions were able to possess the football for 29:50 in last year's matchup and that was despite getting virtually nothing from their ground attack. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 33-17 in Penn State's last 50 games played at home following a home victory, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 49.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU UNDER 61.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 2 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between East Carolina and BYU at 8 pm et on Friday. I don't think this is anywhere near the type of track meet that most are expecting as it's actually a critical game for both teams as far as potential Bowl standing goes. East Carolina is coming off a massive upset win over Central Florida on Saturday. The Knights had owned the Pirates for years and certainly entered the game playing well (including scoring 70 points in their previous contest) so that was an uplifting result for ECU to be sure. Credit the Pirates defense in that game as the only touchdown it allowed came when leading by a 17-3 score in the third quarter. ECU has certainly given up its share of yardage to opposing offenses but it has that ball-hawking ability, having forced six turnovers in the last two games alone. With that in mind, job number one for BYU's struggling offense will be to take care of the football. The Cougars have gotten away from their running game more than they'd like but that's had everything to do with game script as they've dropped their last three contests. I do think we see them go back to the run from the outset in this one in an effort to effectively shorten this game against a dangerous Pirates offense. Last time out against Liberty, BYU scored a pair of first quarter touchdowns but then didn't score again the rest of the way. After that embarrassing defensive performance (the Cougars allowed six Liberty scoring drives over a 34-minute stretch from the second to fourth quarter) I expect that unit to respond favorably here. This Cougars defense is too talented to struggle as badly as it has. Of course, facing Arkansas and Liberty in consecutive games is a tall task for even the best of defenses. Note that East Carolina has actually only played one true road game this season and it scored just nine points in that 15-point loss at Tulane. I mentioned this is a critical game for both teams in regard to Bowl game prospects. ECU does have what figures to be a layup in the final week of the season against Temple (it only needs one more win for Bowl eligibility) but you can be sure it would like to take care of business well before that. For BYU, things are a little tougher as they enter with just four wins and have only three games left on the schedule, including this one (it will face Boise State and Stanford - both on the road - to close out the regular season). I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair and I think that lends itself to a game of the lower-scoring variety in this case. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-22 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat will be playing the second of back-to-back nights off a lopsided win in Portland last night. Miami had little success breaking through against Golden State in two matchups last season, making good on just 37 field goals in each contest. While the Warriors have looked vulnerable defensively in the early going this season, they do come in the more rested team and off a 134-105 dismantling at the hands of the Suns (we won with Phoenix in that game) two nights ago, I'm confident we'll see them come out much sharper on Thursday. Note that this has all the markings of a game Steve Kerr's Warriors would like to 'manage' noting that they'll head out on a five-game in seven-night road trip that begins Friday in Charlotte. While Miami did score 119 points in last night's victory, the Heat have played at a reasonably slow pace, getting off 80, 92, 76, 83 and 87 field goal attempts through their first five games this season. In the outlier they hoisted up 92 field goal attempts but still scored 'only' 104 points in a loss against Boston (that game totalled just 215 points). Defensively, Miami has been as locked-in as any team in the Association, holding each of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts while yielding just 37, 34 and 34 made field goals over its last three contests. The Warriors last three opponents have quite simply shot the lights out but I'm not convinced we'll see that from the Heat in a back-to-back, three-in-four and five-in-seven situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-22 | Canadiens v. Sabres UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Last season, we saw three of four meetings between these two teams stay 'under' 6.5 total goals and I expect a similar outcome on Thursday as the Canadiens and Sabres match up for the first time this season. Montreal has struggled to find the back of the net with any consistency this season, scoring 4, 0, 1, 3, 6, 2 and 1 goal through its first seven contests. The good news is, the Habs have held six of their seven opponents to three goals or less. It's been 'feast-or-famine' for the Sabres offensively. They piled up 15 goals in a three-game swing through western Canada last week but outside of that have scored just eight goals in their other three contests. After allowing five goals in a blowout loss in Seattle two nights ago, I'm confident we'll see the Sabres tighten things up here. They've held four of their six opponents to three goals or less and three of those opponents to two goals or fewer. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. Few teams have been as locked-in defensively as the Raptors in the early going this season. They check in having held their first four opponents to 77, 80, 76 and 83 field goal attempts and have yet to allow more than 38 made field goals in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three of their four games to date. Offensively, it's been a bit of a struggle. Toronto has topped out at 41 made field goals and that came in a game where it scored just 105 points in a loss in Brooklyn. The 76ers have struggled offensively out of the gate as well, getting off no more than 84 field goal attempts in any of their four contests. They shot exceptionally well in their opener against the Celtics but it came at the expense of their defense in a 126-117 loss (we won with the Celtics in that game). Only one of Philadelphia's four opponents has reached 90 FG attempts and that was Indiana last time out, scoring just 106 points in that game. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-22 | Golden Knights v. Sharks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Sharks shutout victory over the Flyers on Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they return home to host the Golden Knights on Tuesday. Vegas is in a back-to-back spot after defeating the Maple Leafs by a 3-1 score on home ice last night. The Knights are off to a terrific start to the season and it's had a lot to do with their defensive play. The 'under' checks in 3-0-1 in their last four games as they've scored 2, 5, 2 and 3 goals over that stretch. Vegas has allowed only 3, 0, 2, 3, 2, 3 and 1 goal in its first seven contests this season and now draws an offensively-challenged Sharks squad that has yet to top the three-goal mark this season, reaching that number only twice in eight games. The good news for San Jose is that it has tightened things up defensively, yielding just four goals in its last three games combined. Note that 11 of the last 15 meetings in this series have stayed 'under' 6.5 total goals. Take the under (10*). |
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10-24-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are content to play at a relatively slow pace, noting that the Nuggets have gotten off 83, 86 and 85 field goal attempts in their first three games while the Blazers are in a similar boat, attempting 88, 82 and 84 field goals in their first three contests. We did see Denver look somewhat vulnerable defensively on Saturday against Oklahoma City (we won with the Thunder plus the points in that game) but that was in a tough back-to-back and three-in-four spot off an exhausting 128-123 road win over the Warriors the night previous. Prior to that, the Nuggets had held the opposition to 83 and 88 field goal attempts in their first two contests. Denver's first three opponents have shot exceptionally well from the field, with all three making good on exactly 42 field goals. I don't think the Nuggets face the same challenge here, however, as the Blazers are still finding their way offensively, knocking down 39, 36 and 37 field goals in their first three contests. This will be the fifth meeting between these two teams going back to the start of last season and as I often say, familiarity tends to lend itself to relatively low-scoring basketball. Note that only twice in those previous four meetings did either side get off more than 88 FG attempts with Denver getting to 90 once and Portland reaching 91 on one occasion (those two contests still totalled only 219 and 216 points). Take the under (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 220 | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm not convinced the pace will be there to warrant a total in the 220's on Sunday night in Los Angeles. Phoenix has incredibly limited its first two opponents to just 75 and 74 field goal attempts in regulation time. Opponents are having a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Clippers don't figure to be the opponent to break through as they're still finding their way with last night's 41 made field goals serving as their high-water mark going back over their last five games, including preseason action. It's a similar story for the Suns as they're off to a 1-1 start, knocking down 40 and 39 field goals in regulation time in those two contests. They made 40 field goals in a come-from-behind win over the Mavericks to open the season (scoring only 107 points in the process) and that's their highest total across five games, including the preseason. Four meetings between these two teams last season totalled 206, 195, 199 and 222 points. I believe tonight's total will prove too high, noting that the 'under' is 18-5 in the Suns last 23 games following a loss and better still, 12-1 in their last 13 contests off a road defeat. Take the under (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Steelers v. Dolphins OVER 44.5 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Miami at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. There's a lot to like about how this game sets up as a potential shootout, although perhaps not at first glance. We've only seen Steelers QB Kenny Pickett for one full game as he suffered a concussion in last week's stunning victory over the Buccaneers. In that contest he completed 34-of-52 passes for 327 yards against a pretty good Bills defense, on the road no less. While that performance was somewhat aided by game script as the Steelers trailed (by a wide margin) most of the way, there's no guarantee that won't be the case again as a touchdown underdog here. Miami is dealing with a cluster of injuries in its secondary and one of the only healthy bodies isn't even all that healthy as CB Xavien Howard has dealt with groin injuries all season long. The Dolphins defense as a whole has been unimposing for opposing quarterbacks, who have carved them up for 10 touchdown passes and only one interception. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are expected to have QB Tua Tagovailoa back from his scary concussion suffered 3+ weeks ago. He returns with a full compliment of weapons (Tyreek Hill was dropped from the injury report this week) and faces an injury-depleted Steelers defense that held up well at home against the Buccaneers last week but isn't likely to turn the trick for a second straight Sunday. Only one team has allowed more yardage to opposing wide receivers and no team has given up more touchdowns to that position this season. The Dolphins previous three home games were all played in the sweltering afternoon heat whereas this game will be played under the lights. I believe that lends itself to a higher-scoring affair than we've been accustomed to seeing here in Miami this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Falcons v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This play sets up beautifully after so many bettors were left hanging with the 'over' in the Falcons 28-14 win over the 49ers last week. I can understand why those same bettors might be a little gun shy when it comes to playing the 'over' again here. Note that the 'under' has actually cashed in each of Atlanta's last three contests. With that being said, the Falcons led most of the way in two of those games while a very limited Buccaneers offense took its foot off the gas after jumping ahead 21-0 in the other. I mention that the Falcons led most of the way in two of those games as they were able to take their preferred course of action, taking the air out of the football and effectively shortening those contests. Here, I'm confident we'll see a much different game script as Atlanta projects to trail as a near-touchdown underdog against an improving Bengals offense. Let's get it straight, the Falcons defense isn't particularly good. Opponents have been bombing away on them with opposing quarterbacks facing little to no pressure in the pocket. Atlanta has yet to limit a single opponent to fewer than 226 passing yards this season. The Bengals are certainly comfortable following a similar gameplan, noting that they've attempted 32+ passes in all six games to date. We've also seen Cincinnati put up 27+ points in three of its last four games with the lone exception coming in a primetime division game in Baltimore two weeks ago. The Falcons offense doesn't get better after losing CB Casey Hayward to a shoulder injury. The good news for the Falcons is, the potential is there for them to stay competitive in this game due to a number of key injuries on the Bengals defense. DT D.J. Reader - one of Cincinnati's best run stoppers - remains sidelined. His backup Josh Tupuo is now out as well. Note that the Bengals have been torched for 155 and 228 rush yards over their last two games, which certainly plays into the hands of the run-happy Falcons here. Perhaps most importantly, LB Logan Wilson is nursing a shoulder injury. Should he miss that would really open things up for Atlanta TE Kyle Pitts, who has been a disappointment to this point, but draws a very favorable matchup against a Cincinnati defense that hasn't been able to contain opposing tight ends all season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-22 | Browns v. Ravens OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 55 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. We got the injury news we wanted on Friday as tight end Mark Andrews returned to practice for the Ravens while cornerback Denzel Ward was ruled out for the Browns. Of course, Cleveland's defense has been a disaster this season, in the conversation as one of the worst defensive units in the entire league. Myles Garrett did return against the Patriots last week and contributed three tackles and two sacks but he re-aggravated his shoulder injury badly enough that he needed an MRI earlier this week. It sounds like he'll be on the field for the Browns on Sunday but whether he's 100% healthy is certainly up for debate. The Ravens are a team built for shootouts with a quick-strike offense but a defense that has plenty of holes. With that being said, they're coming off three consecutive 'under' results. That's had a lot to do with QB Lamar Jackson's inability to connect on his deep throws over the last few games. I think we do see him clean that up this week, noting that the Ravens could have field-stretcher Rashod Bateman back from injury. Regardless whether Bateman plays or not, the Ravens receivers, and Andrews, can win matchups all over the field. On the flip side, the Browns running game should feast on a Ravens defense that has been fairly soft against opposing ground attacks, yielding 4.5 yards per rush. While Cleveland QB Jacoby Brissett has been a 'game manager' throughout his career, he's at least been consistent this season, completing 21 or 22 passes in five straight games. The Ravens haven't given up a lot through the air over their last couple of games but that's only because the opposition has elected to gash them on the ground, as Cleveland is likely to do here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon OVER 69.5 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Bruins and Ducks on Saturday afternoon. This is about as close to the high-flying Oregon teams of the past that we've seen in recent years. The Ducks are scoring at will. They most recently had one stretch where they scored three touchdowns in 14 minutes and then another where they hung four touchdowns on the board in 11 minutes - in the same game - against Arizona. The week previous they scored three touchdowns in the final four-and-a-half minutes of the first half against Stanford. While UCLA is certainly a better defensive team than both of those opponents, it's not as if the Bruins are the '85 Bears. The last time we saw UCLA it prevailed in a wild 42-32 game against Utah. That was a day where the Utes clearly weren't at the top of their game offensively, yet they still managed to eclipse 30 points. There was probably some reason for concern with this Bruins defense earlier in the season when we saw it allow South Alabama to put together four scoring drives in an 18-minute stretch in the first half of a 32-31 UCLA victory. The good news for the Bruins is that they have an explosive offense of their own. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is one of the more underrated players in college football in my opinion, as is RB Zach Charbonnet, who has seemingly been getting stronger with each passing game. Noting that the 'over' is now 10-1 in UCLA's last 11 games after committing one or fewer turnovers in its previous game and a perfect 6-0 in Oregon's last six home games following a win, I'll call for nothing short of a shootout on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-22 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games but I'm not all that high on either side offensively and expect a lower-scoring affair when they match up on Friday night in Chicago. Since opening the season with a 3-0 blanking of Montreal, Detroit has seen its last two contests total seven and nine goals. That's notable as the 'under' has gone 8-1 the last nine times the Red Wings have played on the road following a game that totalled nine goals or more, resulting in an average total of just 4.1 goals. The Blackhawks nearly tripled their offensive output through their first two games with a 5-2 victory in San Jose - that was last Saturday. They've been idle since. They had scored just two goals through their first two contests this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 10-4 the last 14 times Chicago has come off a game in which it scored five or more goals. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Arizona at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We've seen plenty of stinkers in primetime action this season and it's hard to envision anything other than another relatively uneventful affair between the Saints and Cardinals on Thursday. It sounds like the Saints will give the keys to QB Andy Dalton for at least one more game, although there is an outside chance that Jameis Winston returns for this game. I'm not sure it really matters right now. While the Saints have seen each of their last three games go 'over' the total since Dalton took over for an injured Winston, it's had little to do with the 'Red Rocket' as they've actually seen their passing yardage regress over those three contests (19-of-36 passing for 171 yards last week). New Orleans' offensive line is banged-up and outside of standout rookie WR Chris Olave, there are few dynamic options in the receiving corps. QB Alvin Kamara remains the focal point of the offense and while he's played well, he's not the gamebreaker he once was and his ceiling is somewhat limited by the presence of Dalton, not to mention the Saints poor run and pass blocking. The Cardinals have quietly snuffed out opposing passing games this season, not allowing any opponent to throw for more than 244 yards since Week 1 against the Chiefs. Arizona will get WR DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension on Thursday and while he could make an immediate impact, he lands in a struggling Cardinals offense. Arizona's offensive line is dealing with injuries, leading to QB Kyler Murray running for his life a lot of the time. I'm confident in the Saints ability to contain Murray here. New Orleans QB Marshon Lattimore remains sidelined although his backup, Bradley Roby has held up alright, allowing 16 catches on 35 targets this season. The Cards have yet to throw for 300 yards this season and that's despite one game where they completed 37-of-58 passes against the Rams (they scored only 12 points in that contest). This has all the makings of another primetime game played close to the vest with both sides looking to run the football and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that the 'under' is a staggering 14-3 in the Saints last 17 Thursday games and 22-9 in the Cardinals last 31 contests at home following a double-digit loss against a division opponent. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech UNDER 47.5 | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 29 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Georgia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Last year, these two teams were involved in a wild shootout that went Virginia's way by a 48-40 score. That game saw a closing total of 65.5 points so a high-scoring affair was to be expected. How things have changed for both teams. Virginia was involved in plenty of shootouts last year with an electric offense and a defense that couldn't get many stops at all. The script has flipped this year. The Cavaliers offense continues to struggle in pass and run blocking, and generally appears broken. They've topped out at 34 points and that performance came way back in Week 1 against an FCS opponent in Richmond. In fact, that's the last time the Cavaliers eclipsed the 20-point mark. Teams have been able to run on Georgia Tech but Virginia doesn't seem to have anyone capable of taking the lead out of the backfield, and as I mentioned its offensive line hasn't helped matters, struggling mightily in run-blocking. Georgia Tech has turned things around following a 1-3 start, posting back-to-back conference wins over Pittsburgh and Duke. While QB Jeff Sims might be the Yellow Jackets best offensive player, he's really their only true threat. WR Malachi Carter has dealt with an injury and when he has played, hasn't looked quite right. One thing we know is that the Yellow Jackets want to run the football, racking up 30+ rush attempts in all six games so far this season. The gameplan has been to keep drives (and the clock) moving, effectively shortening the game and leaving the heavy lifting to the defense. That defense has certainly had a 'bend but don't break' type of philosophy, giving up yardage on the ground but doing a nice job of snuffing out opposing aerial attacks. Only one opponent has thrown for 300+ yards on them and that was Pitt (it needed 45 pass attempts to get to 305 yards and scored 'only' 21 points in the game). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-4 the last 23 times Virginia has come off a game in which it ran for 40 or fewer yards, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 40.8 points in that spot. The idea is that the Cavaliers generally look to run the football after games where they're unable to do so. Note also that the 'under' is a long-term 53-29 with Georgia Tech coming off consecutive victories, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 225.5 | Top | 90-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday night in Philadelphia. The Bucks went winless in five preseason games. No big surprise as wins and losses mean little during the preseason, especially for perennial contenders like the Bucks. That being said, what does have some carry-over effect from the preseason to the regular season is pace and efficiency at both ends of the floor. Milwaukee made good on 37, 41, 33, 37 and 34 field goals in its five exhibition contests. It got off more than 86 field goal attempts just twice in those five games, and scored 'only' 103 and 113 points in those two contests. While I do think Milwaukee can 'flip the switch' from a defensive standpoint and step up the intensity against an opponent that will certainly draw its intensity, I'm not sure we see the Bucks offense come roaring out of the gates. Philadelphia will obviously be in a foul mood after dropping its season-opener in Boston two nights ago. The 76ers allowed a whopping 126 points in that defeat although the pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring result. Note that Boston actually got off only 82 FG attempts. Both teams simply shot the lights out in that contest, as Philadelphia contibuted 40-of-80 shooting. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has cashed five of the last seven times the 76ers have come off a road loss against a division opponent while the 'under' has also gone a profitable 44-39 the last 83 times Philadelphia has come off an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 42.5 | Top | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Last season's two meetings between these NFC East rivals were wild, high-scoring affairs in favor of the Cowboys but I look for a much different story to unfold on Sunday night in Philadelphia. With QB Cooper Rush in line to start for at least one more game, we know what we're going to get from the Cowboys at this point. They'll keep Rush in a 'game-managing' role as they look to leave proceedings in the hands of their very capable defense. On the flip side, Philadelphia has been somewhat 'feast-or-famine' on offense, scoring points in bunches but also going extended stretches without hitting paydirt. The Eagles are expected to be back at full strength on their offensive line and that should equate to plenty of long, clock-churning drives against a Cowboys defense that will look to 'bend but not break', keeping everything - and most importantly dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts - in front of them on Sunday night. Note that the 'under' is 28-14 the last 42 times the Cowboys have played on the road following three consecutive victories, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 40.8 points. The Eagles have seen the 'under' go 17-12 in their last 29 games against NFC opponents. Take the under (10*). |
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10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 49 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 50 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Kentucky at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Mississippi State has seen three straight games go 'over' the total (based on closing numbers - we played the 'under' early in the week prior to its game against Arkansas last week before the total moved seven points) but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday in Lexington. Note that the Bulldogs have forced seven turnovers while turning the football over just once themselves over the last three games - a big reason they racked up 45, 42 and 40 points over those three contests, all victories, also notably all at home. In two previous road games this season we've seen Mississippi State hang 40+ points on a bad Arizona defense and score just 16 points the next week at LSU. Here, the Bulldogs will face a tough challenge against a Kentucky squad that has held all six opponents to 24 points or less this season. The Wildcats are expected to have QB Will Levis back for Saturday's game and most expect the offense to immediately take off after scoring just 14 points in a disappointing home loss against South Carolina last week. I'm not so easily convinced. Remember, just two games back, with Levis on the field, Kentucky scored just 19 points in a loss to Ole Miss. While Mississippi State is known for its high-powered offense, its defense has been outstanding as well. Case in point, last week it didn't allow a touchdown against Arkansas until it was already ahead 21-3 with less than two minutes remaining in the first half. It has topped out at 276 passing yards allowed this season and that came in a game where Arizona attempted 54 passes and scored just 17 points. While last year's matchup between these two teams did go 'over' the total, it also featured a lower total than we're working with here. You would have to go back five meetings in the series to find the last time the two teams combined to score more than 48 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. TCU UNDER 69.5 | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 1 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth. This is obviously a massive Big 12 showdown as both teams enter sporting perfect 5-0 records. Oklahoma State is coming off consecutive wild, high-scoring wins over Baylor and Texas Tech to open its Big 12 schedule. Meanwhile, TCU won (and covered) in thrilling fashion on the road against previously undefeated Kansas last Saturday, scoring at least 38 points for the fifth straight time to open the campaign. I believe both teams will be facing their toughest defensive test of the season on Saturday. Note that game script has been a big factor in the Cowboys last two high-scoring results. Last week against Texas Tech, two early touchdown scores (one by each team) in the game's first four minutes ultimately led to a back-and-forth shootout. Keep in mind, after giving up a Texas Tech touchdown just under three minutes into the second quarter, the Cowboys held the Red Raiders out of the end zone with the exception of one score around midway through the third quarter. Two weeks ago against Baylor, Oklahoma State jumped ahead 23-3 and didn't yield a Bears touchdown until nearly three minutes into the second half. Meanwhile, TCU gave up two touchdowns in the first 17 minutes against Oklahoma two weeks ago but then didn't allow another touchdown score until the outcome had long been decided, up 55-17 just shy of four minutes into the fourth quarter. Last week, the Horned Frogs didn't allow a Kansas touchdown until just over two minutes into the second half. Things went a bit sideways from there as TCU was geared toward facing dual-threat QB Jaylon Daniels but after he suffered an injury, Jake Bean took over the Jayhawks offense and bombed away. After Oklahoma State won last year's matchup between these two teams by a 63-17 score, you can be sure that TCU has little interest in getting involved in a shootout here, regardless how much confidence it has in QB Max Duggan. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 in the Cowboys last 10 games when playing on the road off a home win but non-cover as a favorite, resulting in an average total of just 46.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have seen the 'under' cash in four of their last five games following consecutive contests in which 60+ points were scored, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-22 | Navy v. SMU UNDER 57.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Houston at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While five of the last seven meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total, two of the last three matchups have stayed 'under' including last year's 31-24 SMU victory. Navy exploded for 53 points in last week's blowout win over Tulsa but there's little chance we see it repeat that performance here. The Midshipmen benefited from four Golden Hurricane turnovers in that contest. It's worth noting that prior to that game, Navy had been held to 23 points or less in each of its first four contests this season, including 13 or less in three of those games. If the Midshipmen are going to keep this one competitive on Friday, they're going to need to come up with another strong defensive performance. Note that they've actually held up well on that side of the football this season and particularly of late. Navy enters this contest having yielded just six offensive touchdowns over their last 12 quarters of action. SMU isn't one-dimensional on offense by any means, but it hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire with its ground attack. The Mustangs have attempted 49+ passes in three straight games but that's had more to do with game script than anything else as they've either been trailing or involved in tightly-contested affairs. As a double-digit favorite here, the potential is there for them to lean a little more heavily on their running game to take some of the load off of QB Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown just five touchdowns to go along with five interceptions over the last three games. Navy's gameplan will obviously involve effectively shortening this game but churning out long, time-consuming drives with its triple-option offense. Despite gaining just 177 rushing yards on 53 attempts in last year's meeting, the Midshipmen still won the time of possession battle, holding onto the football for 32+ minutes. It's also worth noting that they 'only' allowed 31 points despite SMU completing 30-of-40 passes for 324 yards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 4-1 in Navy's last five games following an outright underdog victory, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has cashed four of the last six times SMU has come off consecutive games totalling 60+ points, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-22 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 1:05 pm et on Friday. PLEASE NOTE: This is the same play that we originally had when the game was scheduled for Thursday night. We missed with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play on Friday, however, as we work with an even lower posted total. Nestor Cortes has enjoyed a tremendous campaign. He hasn't pitched since October 1st though - nearly two weeks ago - and I can't help but feel there's nowhere to go but down after he allowed just one hit in each of his last two outings, and having not allowed a single home run over his last five starts. Note that the Guardians will be seeing Cortes for the third time this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 21-12 with Cleveland seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent where it scored one run or less this season, with that situation producing an average total of 9.3 runs. The Guardians will hand the ball to their ace Shane Bieber after he was lights out in his lone Wild Card round start against the Rays last week. While Bieber's numbers are tremendous, I feel like every time I watch him pitch, he's laboring. I just don't find anything seems to come all that easy for the admittedly 'elite' right-hander. The Yankees will obviously make opposing pitchers work for everything. They average 5.1 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching and 5.2 rpg at home this season. Interestingly, the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 with Bieber starting in an underdog role priced between +125 and +175 this season, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 4-1 in Yankees home games where the total is set at 6.0 or 6.5 this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Louisiana and Marshall at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. You've heard the saying that when a coach says he has two capable quarterbacks that really means he has no capable quarterbacks. That might be a bit harsh but I think it rings true with the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns this season. Ben Wooldridge and Chandler Fields have split time under center with neither showing the ability to take over the reins entirely. I do think the Ragin' Cajuns have a capable enough offense led by RB Chris Smith to at least move the chains with some consistency and churn out some long drives in this midweek affair. I'm just not convinced they can finish a lot of drives with seven's on the board. In fact, Louisiana has scored just one offensive touchdown over its last seven quarters of football and that's despite its last two contests coming against anything but defensive powerhouses in South Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe. Marshall's biggest issue a year ago and ultimately the biggest reason it dropped a 36-21 decision in its matchup against Louisiana was its lack of run defense. It has shown improvement in that regard, however, this season. Only one opponent has gained more than 100 yards on the ground against the Thundering Herd this season and that was Notre Dame, picking up 130 rushing yards but needing 37 attempts to get there. Offensively, Marshall has topped out at 28 points in regulation time in four games (it reached that number twice) since opening the campaign with a 55-3 rout of FCS squad Norfolk State. RB Khalal Laborn has proven to be a big get for the Herd, running for 100+ yards in all five games this season. I do think Marshall will look to manage his workload a little bit moving forward though, noting that he's racked up 30+ carries in two straight and three of his last four games. Louisiana has held opponents to just 3.8 yards per rush this season but did turn in one bad game against the run, that coming against Louisiana-Monroe two contests back. The Warhawks rushing numbers were boosted by one 75-yard run - outside of that they actually gained just 152 yards on their other 38 attempts. Take the under (10*). |
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10-12-22 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. PLEASE NOTE: Elvis Merzlikins is a late scratch for the Blue Jackets due to illness. Daniil Tarasov will start in goal in his place. That obviously works in our favor but the total will likely move to 6.5 as a result. I'll stick with the play. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair as the Blue Jackets head to Raleigh to face the Hurricanes on Wednesday. Columbus made a big splash in the offseason, landing perhaps the biggest free agent prize in Johnny Gaudreau. While there's not a ton of depth up front, I do like the way the Jackets top two lines shape up and feel this is a team that will get involved in plenty of high-scoring affairs this season given the deficiencies at the back-end. Watch for second-year right-winger Yehor Chinakhov, who had a terrific preseason, scoring six goals in seven games. Columbus' defensive corps ranks among the worst in the league while Elvis Merzlikins has never really lived up to expectations between the pipes. The hope was that Merzlikins would serve as an equalizer of sorts last season but he ended up logging a 3.22 GAA and .907 save percentage in 59 games. The Hurricanes don't necessarily get better defensively by adding Brent Burns, but he does give them a lift offensively. Burns contributed three goals and two assists in two preseason contests. Of course, it's the Hurricanes depth up front that is really the envy of the league. Carolina has three forward lines that can threaten to score on every shift - something that just can't be said for most teams. Goaltender Frederik Andersen is coming off a career year but I question whether he can duplicate that performance this season. Note that he allowed four goals on just 31 shots in two preseason appearances. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-22 | Golden Knights v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. Neither of these teams did anything to upgrade their situation between the pipes with the Golden Knights forced to go with the duo of Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit with Robin Lehner sidelined for the season due to injury and the Kings sticking with veteran Jonathan Quick and backup Cal Petersen. I do think both sides are fairly set offensively, with the Knights adding Phil Kessel in the offseason and the Kings making a big splash with the addition of Kevin Fiala to provide some much-needed scoring punch. The Knights have built out their forward depth to the point that guys like Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson now reside on the third line. With three capable scoring lines up front, not to mention a fourth line that includes Arthur Kaliyev, who performed exceptionally well during the preseason, the Kings boast a lot more offensive pop than we've seen in recent years. Last season's four matchups between these two teams totalled 8, 9, 7 and 6 goals and five of the last six meetings here in Los Angeles have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-10-22 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Montreal at 1 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the RedBlacks blowout loss against the Lions last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as they stay on the road to face the Alouettes on Canadian Thanksgiving Monday. Ottawa was in an extremely tough spot last week, playing on a short week after a physically-draining affair against the Argos in which they coughed the football up six times and dropped a 45-14 decision. Not surprisingly, we saw Ottawa's defense look tired against the Lions, ultimately giving up 34 points on over 450 total yards of offense. Here, I do look for that Ottawa defense to regain its footing against a limited Alouettes offense that has gone run-heavy in recent weeks. Even two games back, when Montreal made good on 26-of-35 passes for 244 yards, without turning the ball over once, it still only managed to score 23 points in a win over the Tiger-Cats. It's a similar story for the RedBlacks offense. Two games back they completed 33-of-54 passes for a whopping 368 yards but could only muster 15 points in that aforementioned blowout loss against the Argos. In fact, you would have to go back four games to find the last time Ottawa scored more than 19 points in a game and that came in a wild 38-24 win over these same Alouettes right here in Montreal. Needless to say, the Als have had this rematch circled and I certainly don't expect them to turn in another flat defensive performance as they look to keep their three-game winning streak rolling. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the RedBlacks coming off five or six losses in their last seven games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 41.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 32-39 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Seahawks enter this game off consecutive 'over' results, including last week's 93-point shootout in Detroit. I expect a much different story to unfold on Sunday as they stay on the road to face the Saints at the Superdome in New Orleans. I think both teams have an interest in effectively shortening this game as their best chance at coming away victorious. For the Seahawks, they're essentially playing with 'house money' off to a surprising 2-2 start and having already won the front-half of this two-game road set. They've been throwing the football far more than most expected given head coach Pete Carroll's penchant for 'establishing the run' at all costs. Here, I think we'll see Seattle get back to that run-first gameplan with RB Rashaad Penny performing exceptionally well. The problem here is that the Saints defense is capable of smothering opposing ground attacks and I'm not convinced the Seahawks passing game can do enough to keep them honest here. Note that only four other pass defenses have held opposing quarterbacks to a lower completion percentage than the Saints this season. Offensively, New Orleans is limited, due in large part to a number of key injuries. QB Jameis Winston isn't expected to play meaning the offense will once again be left in the hands of veteran Andy Dalton. Returning from London, I don't believe the Saints have any interest in getting involved in an exhausting shootout here. Look for them to focus on churning out long, clock-eating drives with a focus on running the football with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. The Seahawks have been helpless against the run this season, yielding well north of 5.0 yards per rush but the Saints ground attack has appeared anything but explosive so we could see a bit of a stagnant battle here. Note that last year's meeting between these two teams totalled just 23 points, easily staying 'under' the closing total of 41.5. We're working with a considerably higher total here and I don't believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-22 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 22-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. I expected the Vikings to be a strong 'over' play with Kevin O'Connell taking over head coaching duties from Mike Zimmer this season, not to mention Minnesota's leaky defense. It took a few weeks but now we've seen the Vikings get involved in consecutive shootouts, loosely-speaking, resulting in back-to-back 'overs' against Detroit and New Orleans (in London). Here, I expect another higher-scoring than expected matchup against the Bears in friendly offensive conditions indoors in Minnesota. The Bears offense has been putrid so far this season but it has also faced some tough defensive opponents, in difficult settings, with the exception of a game against Houston in which it scored a season-high 23 points. Here, there's reason for optimism as the Bears running game should feast on a Vikings run defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. QB Justin Fields continues to be under constant duress but there will be plays to be made against a below-average Vikings secondary in this game, especially as game-script will likely favor the Bears going a little more aggressive playing from behind. It should be all systems go for the Vikings offense as they look to tee off on a Bears defense that has done little to slow opposing running or passing games this season. Chicago checks in allowing 4.8 yards per rush, setting this up as a blow-up spot for Vikes RB Dalvin Cook. The Bears could be in dire straits trying to defend Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, who checks in off a dominant performance in London, noting that CB Jaylon Johnson is questionable to play again this week as he recovers from a quad injury that has kept him out of the last two games. Note that last year's matchup between these two teams in Minnesota totalled 48 points. The 'over' is 9-1 the last 10 times Minnesota has come off an ATS loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 55.0 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-22 | Utah v. UCLA UNDER 64.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and UCLA at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with UCLA against Washington last week as that matchup set up well for the Bruins to stay undefeated while also ending the Huskies perfect run in what turned out to be a wild, high-scoring game. It's a much different story this week as I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair as the visiting Utes aim to deliver their fifth straight victory since dropping their opener at Florida. That trip to The Swamp to face the Gators in Week 1 was a tough one to be sure. Often teams just aren't ready to get punched in the mouth right out of the gate and I think that was the case with Utah - even though that result against Florida certainly could have gone either way. Since then, the Utes have been nothing short of dominant. Over their last four games they've allowed a grand total of four touchdowns. The only touchdown scores they allowed against San Diego State and Arizona State came when those games were already long decided, up 35-0 in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter against the Aztecs and 34-6 as the clock wound down against the Sun Devils. Last week, Utah gave up a touchdown in the first six minutes of the game against Oregon State but that was it as far as touchdowns go the rest of the way as the Utes cruised to a 42-16 victory. I am somewhat concerned about the season-ending injury to Utah TE Brant Kuithe. He was a big part of what the Utes do on offense and certainly added to the comfort level of QB Cam Rising. Kuithe led the Utes in receiving in last year's meeting with UCLA. That's not to say Utah can't be explosive without him - we still saw it put up 40+ points in last week's win over Oregon State, but his absence is notable to be sure. While UCLA doesn't shy away from shootouts often, I think it might be well-served to employ more of a clock-control offensive gameplan here, knowing its own defensive deficiencies. Keep in mind, this matchup went Utah's way by a 44-24 score last year. Forcing nine turnovers over its last four games, UCLA has been gaining plenty of extra offensive possessions but Utah isn't likely to be as generous, noting that it has turned the football over just four times in five games this season. I expect to see both teams churn out some long, clock-eating drives over the course of this game. While the Bruins defense has struggled for extended stretches, we also have to give it credit for last week's win over Washington as it gave up a touchdown in the game's first five minutes but then held the Huskies out of the end zone until there were just over five minutes remaining in the third quarter. The Bruins did give up two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter but that was when the outcome was all but decided, up 40-16 (Washington tacked on a pair of two-point conversions to make the final score a little more flattering). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 30-14 the last 44 times Utah has played on the road following a home win by 17+ points with that spot producing an average total of just 48.1 points. The 'under' is also 87-60 in the Bruins last 147 games following an 'over' result, resulting in an average total of 54.6 points in that spot. I mentioned last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 68 points, sailing 'over' the closing total of 60.5. We're dealing with a higher number this time around and I'll point out the last time these teams met on this field we saw just 51 total points in 2018. Take the under (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Top Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-14-23 | Bradley v. Drake OVER 128.5 | Top | 61-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
01-14-23 | Wisconsin v. Indiana OVER 135.5 | Top | 45-63 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
01-13-23 | Juventus v. Napoli UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
01-10-23 | Pistons v. 76ers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 116-147 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
01-10-23 | VCU v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 137 | Top | 78-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia UNDER 64 | Top | 7-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
01-08-23 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
01-06-23 | Islanders v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
01-06-23 | Dartmouth v. Yale OVER 129 | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
01-02-23 | Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 229 | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants UNDER 39 | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
12-31-22 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 224.5 | Top | 103-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
12-29-22 | Washington v. Texas OVER 67 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 10 m | Show |
12-27-22 | Jacksonville v. Notre Dame OVER 129 | Top | 43-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
12-24-22 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 47.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 39 m | Show |
12-23-22 | Pacers v. Heat UNDER 224 | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
12-18-22 | Eagles v. Bears UNDER 48.5 | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
12-17-22 | Islanders v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills OVER 43 | Top | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
12-16-22 | Hawks v. Hornets UNDER 234.5 | Top | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
12-16-22 | Miami-OH v. UAB OVER 45 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
12-13-22 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
12-12-22 | Wolves v. Blazers UNDER 232.5 | Top | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
12-11-22 | Browns v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 52 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 34 m | Show |
12-06-22 | Kings v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 41.5 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
12-04-22 | Browns v. Texans OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
12-03-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-45 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
12-02-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 233 | Top | 117-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
11-30-22 | Rangers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
11-27-22 | Canada v. Croatia OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 115 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 60.5 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
11-24-22 | Bills v. Lions UNDER 54.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
11-23-22 | Canada v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
11-22-22 | Pistons v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 52 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
11-20-22 | Toronto v. Winnipeg UNDER 49 | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 48.5 | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 50 h 27 m | Show |
11-19-22 | Jazz v. Blazers OVER 222.5 | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
11-19-22 | Virginia Tech v. Liberty UNDER 47 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
11-18-22 | Baylor v. Virginia UNDER 133.5 | Top | 79-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
11-16-22 | Kings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
11-16-22 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
11-15-22 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 212 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
11-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
11-12-22 | San Jose State v. San Diego State UNDER 41.5 | Top | 27-43 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 43 m | Show |
11-12-22 | South Carolina v. Florida UNDER 59.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show |
11-11-22 | Colorado v. USC UNDER 66.5 | Top | 17-55 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 48 m | Show |
11-10-22 | Sharks v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
11-10-22 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 217.5 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
11-09-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
11-09-22 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 12 m | Show |
11-07-22 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 231 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints UNDER 47 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
11-06-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 49.5 | Top | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
11-05-22 | California v. USC UNDER 60.5 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
11-05-22 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 38 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
11-01-22 | Buffalo v. Ohio UNDER 58.5 | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
11-01-22 | Senators v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 44 m | Show |
10-29-22 | Pacers v. Nets UNDER 235 | Top | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10-29-22 | USC v. Arizona UNDER 76 | Top | 45-37 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 34 m | Show |
10-29-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State UNDER 56 | Top | 0-48 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
10-29-22 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 3 m | Show |
10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU UNDER 61.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 2 m | Show |
10-27-22 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
10-27-22 | Canadiens v. Sabres UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10-26-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10-25-22 | Golden Knights v. Sharks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
10-24-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 220 | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Steelers v. Dolphins OVER 44.5 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Falcons v. Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 4 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Browns v. Ravens OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 55 m | Show |
10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon OVER 69.5 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
10-21-22 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech UNDER 47.5 | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 29 m | Show |
10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 225.5 | Top | 90-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 42.5 | Top | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 49 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 50 m | Show |
10-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. TCU UNDER 69.5 | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 1 m | Show |
10-14-22 | Navy v. SMU UNDER 57.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10-14-22 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
10-12-22 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10-11-22 | Golden Knights v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
10-10-22 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 32-39 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 22-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
10-08-22 | Utah v. UCLA UNDER 64.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 33 m | Show |