Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-04-18 | Mets v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Corey Oswalt will take the ball for the Mets, making his second big league start. He struggled in his first, but I do look for him to settle down against an inconsistent Blue Jays offense on Wednesday. Note that Oswalt did hold the Cardinals to just two earned runs on two hits over 4 2/3 innings in a relief appearance earlier this season, so he's capable of stepping up. Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman has rounded back into form since returning from injury, allowing only one earned run over 12 frames in his last two starts. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in both of those games. I like the fact that he hasn't been overworked, needing only 81 and 90 pitches to get through those two outings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-30-18 | Portugal v. Uruguay UNDER 2 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -123 | 41 h 57 m | Show |
World Cup Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Uruguay and Portugal at 2 pm et on Saturday. There is so much star power in this matchup it’s not surprising that we’re dealing with a juiced-out total shaded to the ‘over’. We’ll go the other way and call for a ‘push’ at worst as I don’t see this one settling at anything other than 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 at the end of 90 minutes. We saw Iran take away a number of Cristiano Ronaldo’s opportunities in the final group stage match and I’m confident we’ll see Uruguay do the same on Saturday. Save for a penalty kick awarded, Ronaldo was frustrated for much of that night against the Iranians. On the flip side, Portugal is capable of keeping the outstanding duo of Suarez and Cavani under wraps, unlike Uruguay’s previous opponents, perhaps save for Egypt, which held up well until added time in their World Cup opener. While the potential is there for both of these squads to bust out offensively, I just don’t see it happening with so much on the line, and so little separating the two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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06-29-18 | BC v. Edmonton UNDER 55.5 | Top | 22-41 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between B.C. and Edmonton at 10 pm et on Friday. Edmonton has been involved in a couple of high-scoring affairs to open the season, splitting those two games. I look for the Eskimos defense to step up on Friday night, however, as they welcome the Lions to Commonwealth Stadium. There’s no question the Eskimos defense is better than it has shown in the early going this season. This looks like a fine ‘get right’ game at home against a Lions offense that the jury is still out on, having only played one game – a 22-10 victory over a bad Alouettes squad back in Week 1. On the flip side, I’m confident the Lions defense can hold its own against an Edmonton offense that has yet to find its groove. The Eskimos scored points in bunches against Winnipeg in a wild season-opener but stumbled last week. It’s hard to say which offense we see on Friday night, but I do feel we’re dealing with an inflated total based on the Eskimos high-scoring contests so far. Take the under (10*). |
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06-29-18 | Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met last week they combined to score 36 runs in three games. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday night, however, as two young starting pitchers go head-to-head. Erick Fedde will take the ball for the Nationals. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six trips to the hill. I like the fact that Fedde has thrown fewer than 100 pitches in six of his first seven big league starts. His ground ball to fly ball ratio has been outstanding over his last few outings. The 'under' has cashed in each of Fedde's last four starts. Nick Pivetta will counter for Philadelphia. He hasn't been working deep into ball games lately but should take some positives from his most recent start against the same Nats' he'll face on Friday night. In that outing he gave up just two earned runs in five innings and needed only 87 pitches to get through that start. Pivetta has been solid at home this season, posting a 3.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. His home starts are totaling just shy of 7.5 runs per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-18 | Padres v. Rangers UNDER 10 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Padres aren't scoring with any consistency right now and while the Rangers have been on a bit of a tear at the dish, I believe they'll be held in check by San Diego starter Tyson Ross. Ross has been effective on the road this season, posting a 3.13 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 54 2/3 innings of work. He enters this outing having worked at least into the sixth inning in nine of his last 10 starts overall. Ross is coming off one of his best starts of the season, having allowed just one earned run over seven innings against the Giants, albeit in a losing effort. Austin Bibens-Dirkx has made three starts this season, working into the seventh inning in two of those. He needed only 81 pitches to go 6 2/3 innings against the Royals last time out. I look for him to build off of that performance against a slumping Padres lineup here. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-18 | Orioles v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Friday night as two teams that have been struggling to score with consistency lately go head-to-head in an interleague matchup. Baltimore will hand the ball to Alex Cobb. He missed all of spring training so the first part of the regular season was essentially his time to work out the kinks. He certainly struggled as a result. However, he has rebounded lately, working at least six innings in three of his last four starts. Note that he has also thrown fewer than 100 pitches in six of his last seven outings. The 'under' is 3-1 in Cobb's last four starts. Sean Newcomb will counter for Atlanta. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. Last time out, Newcomb threw six innings of two-hit shutout ball. He checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last nine outings. Newcomb has been sharp here at home, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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06-16-18 | Hamilton v. Calgary UNDER 55 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Calgary at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Stampeders are certainly familiar with this Ti-Cats offense run by QB Jeremiah Masoli. Last year, Calgary took both meetings by a combined 88-26 score. Masoli didn't throw a single touchdown while tossing a pair of interceptions in those two contests. Obviously, the Ti-Cats QB will be feeling some heat here with Johnny Manziel waiting in the wings. I'm not sure Manziel's presence on the bench is a good thing for this Ti-Cats offense. Calgary is of course one of the league's elite teams and a serious Grey Cup contender. However, it's the opening week of the season. I'm just not sure we'll see the Stamps come out all guns blazing in their opener. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-5-1 in the Stamps last 22 season-openers. Take the under (10*). |
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06-15-18 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Yankees were one of the best 'over' bets in baseball for the first two months of the season but that has certainly turned around lately as they've reeled off nine straight 'under' results. I look for that trend to continue on Friday night in the Bronx. Tampa Bay will hand the ball to Nathan Eovaldi. He tossed six innings of no-hit ball in his return from Tommy John surgery and since then has worked five innings in back-to-back outings against the Nationals and Mariners. While we're dealing with a small sample size it is worth noting that his strikeout numbers are up while his walk totals are down. After giving up three home runs in his last two starts he will definitely need to do a better job of commanding the strike zone in order to keep the Yankees All-Star lineup in the ballpark on Friday. Jonathan Loaisiga will make his first big league start for the Yankees. The 23-year old hasn't even started a game at the Triple-A level so it's difficult to say how he'll adapt to facing big league hitters. The good news is he faces a lower-tier opponent in the Rays. It's also worth noting that Loiaisiga has posted an impressive 58:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the minors this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-13-18 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 102 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' this season and I don't see anything changing as they meet in Wednesday's series finale at Miller Park. Mike Montgomery is off to a terrific start for the Cubs this season, having worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his first three starts, allowing a grand total of two earned runs in 17 2/3 innings of work. He has needed just 76, 76 and 95 pitches to get through those three outings so he has been relatively efficient as well. The Brewers haven't been scoring with much consistency over the last couple of weeks so Montgomery may be catching them at the right time here. Jhoulys Chacin wil counter for Milwaukee. He's been sharp here at home this season, posting a 2.79 ERA in 29 innings of work. His five home starts have averaged a total of just 7.6 runs scored. Chacin brings solid form to the table having worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. He hasn't thrown more than 100 pitches in a start since April 20th so his arm should be in fine shape for this one. Take the under (10*). |
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06-12-18 | Nationals v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees were the best 'over' bet in baseball for the better part of the first two months of the season but now they check into this series riding a six-game 'under' streak. I look for that trend to continue on Tuesday as the Nationals send Tanner Roark to the hill against CC Sabathia. Roark has been extremely consistent this season, working at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts and giving up three earned runs or less in seven of those starts. Last time out he allowed only two earned runs over six innings against the Rays. The Nats' gave Roark 11 runs in that game but generally haven't provided him a great deal of run support, putting up four runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts overall. Sabathia bounced back from a rough stretch, allowing only two earned runs on three hits over seven innings against the Blue Jays last time out. He has been fairly consistent at home this season, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 29 1/3 innings here at Yankee Stadium. His starts have generally been high-scoring but but here we're dealing with a fairly high posted total as well. Take the under (10*). |
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06-11-18 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 109 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Cleveland exploded for nine runs in yesterday's victory in Detroit, matching its highest offensive output since putting up nine runs in a game on May 31st. Note that the Indians had scored just 20 runs in total over their previous six contests. Meanwhile, the White Sox posted an impressive series win over the Red Sox at Fenway Park but scored only eight runs in the process. They've plated a grand total of 29 runs over their last nine games overall. Carlos Carrasco will take the ball for the Indians. He bounced back nicely following back-to-back shaky outings, allowing just one earned run over seven innings last time out against Milwaukee. Note that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. His road starts are averaging just seven total runs this season. The 'under' has cashed in each of Carrasco's last four starts against the White Sox and he's given up only four earned runs in 29 1/3 innings of work. Lucas Giolito will counter for Chicago. He was rocked for seven earned runs and lasted only 1 1/3 innings against the Orioles back on May 24th. However, since then he has worked six innings in back-to-back outings - last time out allowing just two earned runs in Minnesota. The 'under' has gone 3-1-1 in Giolito's last five starts overall. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-18 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -119 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in the series finale between the Braves and Dodgers on Sunday afternoon. Sean Newcomb will take the ball for Atlanta. He is off to an incredible start this season, having gone 7-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Newcomb has worked at least six innings in eight of his last nine starts and has given up two earned runs or less in six of his last seven outings. He's been getting a ton of run support on the road, well north of six runs per start, but I'm not expecting the Braves bats to do much damage on Sunday afternoon. That's because the Dodgers will turn to Ross Stripling, who has been pitching exceptionally well. Stripling has posted a 4-1 record to go along with a 1.52 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. We won with the 'under' in his most recent start as he pitched five shutout innings, allowing just four hits and no walks while striking out seven against the Pirates. The 'under' is 5-1 in Stripling's last six trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Golden State and Cleveland at 9 pm et on Friday. The Warriors have had four previous series-clinching opportunities in these playoffs, going 3-1 straight-up in those games. For our purposes with this play, it’s worth noting that those games have averaged just 198.3 total points, with only one of those games surpassing the total we’re working with on Friday night. The Cavs played about as well as we could have expected in Game 3 of this series but could still only muster 102 points in a losing effort. They know they’re not coming back to win this series at this point, and I certainly don’t think they’re interested in getting involved in a track meet with the Warriors on Friday night. Meanwhile, after three games, and with Andre Iguodala back in the rotation, the Warriors should have a pretty good handle on how to contain the Cavs less-than-complex offense at this point. It’s really up to Golden State how it wants this game to play out and based on its track record in these playoffs, I look for it to lock down the Cleveland offense as it stares down an opportunity to wrap up this series rather than drag it out another few days. Steph Curry isn’t going to go 0-for-9 from three-point range again but I’m also not sure we’ll see Kevin Durant go off the way he did in Game 3. Cleveland made every effort to push the pace early in Game 3 and got off to a fantastic start in the first two minutes, but it wasn’t able to keep up that frantic tempo and certainly wasn’t effective getting back on defense while doing so. As I mentioned, the Cavs know they aren’t going to beat the Warriors at their own game. The last time the Warriors wrapped up an NBA title here on this floor in Cleveland back in 2016, they did so with a 105-97 victory in Game 6. I expect to see a similar story unfold on Friday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-06-18 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair in the series opener between these A.L. West rivals last night. That game got off to a slow start before the Rangers offense took over. Look for a different story to unfold tonight. Daniel Mengden will take the ball for the A's. He has quietly been one of the best starters in the American League so far this season, going 6-4 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Mengden has worked at least seven innings in each of his last three starts and has gone at least six innings in five consecutive outings. Over that stretch his highest pitch count was just 102. Note that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in three of four career starts against the Rangers and tossed seven innings of four-hit shutout ball here in Arlington last year. Bartolo Colon will counter for Texas. He's been alternating good and bad starts lately and is certainly coming off a disappointing outing against the Angels in which he lasted just three innings. I do look for him to bounce back here, noting that Colon has given up just four earned runs and worked at least six innings in both starts against the A's since the start of last season. Take the under (10*). |
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05-21-18 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and New York at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I really like the way the 'under' sets up in the opener of this series on Monday night in New York. The Marlins were involved in a high-scoring affair in yesterday's series finale against the Braves but I look for a different story to unfold in this one. Rookie Elieser Hernandez will take the ball for the Mets on Monday. After making two relief appearances he made his first career start last week against the Dodgers, and pitched well, allowing just one earned run on three hits over five innings of work. He needed only 75 pitches to get through those five innings. Jason Vargas will counter for New York. He has gotten off to a disastrous start this season, allowing 19 earned runs on 26 hits in 12 1/3 innings, spanning three starts. Keep in mind, Vargas was an 18-game winner with a 4.16 ERA as a member of the Royals last year. I see this as a solid bounce-back spot for the veteran left-hander. Take the under (10*). |
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05-18-18 | Yankees v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Friday. Perhaps these two clubs' reputations precede them as we're dealing with a lofty total in the opener of this series on Friday night in Kansas City. CC Sabathia will take the ball for the Yankees. He struggled last time out, allowing four earned run on nine hits in just four innings of work. Keep in mind, that start came against the Boston Red Sox. He'll be taking a step down in class against the Royals here. In two starts against Kansas City last year, Sabathia allowed only three earned runs over 12 2/3 innings. The 'under' has cashed in five of his last six trips to the hill against the Royals. Jakob Junis will counter for Kansas City. He has been quietly effective this season, despite pitching for one of the worst teams in baseball. With that being said, Junis is fresh off a rocky outing, giving up four earned runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings. That start came on the road against the Indians, a tough challenge to be sure. He'll face another tough challenge against the Yankees here but I'm confident he'll hang in there. Note that Junis has at least worked into the sixth inning in five straight and seven of eight starts overall this season. The Royals are giving up just 3.25 runs per contest in his four starts at Kaufman Stadium. Take the under (10*). |
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05-15-18 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5 | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cleveland and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavs were essentially run out of the building in Game 1 of this series in Boston on Sunday afternoon (we won with the Celtics), scoring only 35 first half points en route to a 108-83 beatdown at the hands of the Celtics. While I’m not sure the Cavs make the complete turnaround and win Game 2, I am confident we’ll see them put forth a much stronger offensive showing. Lebron James certainly said all of the right things after that Game 1 blowout and I believed much of what he said in that he’s not one bit concerned by one loss. Look for a big game out of Lebron on Tuesday night as he takes advantage of what I consider an average Celtics defense. On the flip side, Boston continues to impress, getting offensive contributions from everywhere on the floor. Despite getting only 17 points combined from Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart, the C’s still managed to easily eclipse the 100-point mark on Sunday. There’s little reason to expect much of a letdown here. Brad Stevens continues to prove himself as one of the league’s best coaches and I’m confident he’ll make a few adjustments to keep the offense flowing on Tuesday night. We’re dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in the series opener, but I believe it’s the wrong move. Expect a competitive, relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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05-12-18 | Golden Knights v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
NHL Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Vegas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. While most are expecting this to be a high-scoring series, I don't see it playing out that way. Both teams are loaded with speed and high skill but they also boast two outstanding goaltenders that are absolutely at the top of their game right now. Marc-Andre Fleury has to be considered the front-runner for Conn Smythe through the first two rounds of the playoffs. He's enjoying a record-setting run between the pipes and I don't see him suffering any sort of letdown against the high-flying Jets. While Pekka Rinne got most of the press leading up to the much-anticipated showdown between the Jets and Predators, it was Connor Hellebuyck that stole the show. He shut the Preds down in Game 7 and I expect plenty of carry-over from that performance in the opener of the West Final. The 'over' went 2-1 in three regular season meetings between these two teams this season but both 'over' results came December 1st and earlier. The most recent matchup was played in February, and that game totaled only four goals in regulation time with Vegas ultimately winning 3-2 in overtime. Take the under (10*). |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 226.5 | Top | 104-113 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Pelicans quite simply couldn't knock down their shots in Game 4 of this series and the Warriors rolled to an easy victory as a result (we won with Golden State and the 'under'). I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' in this elimination game on Tuesday night. There's reason for the Pelicans to be confident heading into this one as they've scored at least 115 points in five of eight meetings between these two teams this season. The Warriors came out with the right level of intensity in Game 4 on Sunday, but that was coming off a 19-point drubbing just two nights earlier. Here, I'm not sure they manhandle the Pelicans right out of the gate in quite the same way. On the flip side, there's little reason to think that New Orleans can slow an offensive juggernaut like the Warriors on the road. Golden State has scored 120, 123 and 121 points in its last three home games against the Pelicans. Take the over (10*). |
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05-05-18 | Jets v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
NHL Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Winnipeg and Nashville at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. We saw plenty of offense in the first few games of this series, particularly in Games 2 and 3 but things settled down considerably in Game 4 on Thursday night as the Predators ‘won ugly’ and evened the series up at two games apiece. I don’t think we’ll see a return to the wild, back-and-forth style of game on Saturday night, with so much on the line for both teams. The Jets know they can ill afford to be forced to the brink of elimination against a team as good as the Preds. Winning back-to-back games against Nashville, with all of the pressure squarely on them, would be a tall order to be sure. Meanwhile, Nashville needs a victory here to avoid heading to Winnipeg to face a must-win situation in front of that hostile crowd at MTS Centre. I’m anticipating a slugfest between what has to be two weary opponents at this point. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-18 | Blue Jays v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Tampa Bay at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in St. Petersburg on Saturday evening. Aaron Sanchez will take the ball for the Jays. He has worked at least six innings in each of his last five starts, and has worked into the sixth inning in all six of his starts this season. He wasn't at his best on the road against the Twins last time out but the Jays still managed to win that game so it shouldn't knock his confidence heading into this outing. The 'under' is a perfect 5-0 in his five career starts against the Rays. Jake Faria will counter for Tampa Bay. He has settled in nicely to the Rays rotation, most recently tossing eight shutout innings against the Tigers. He has given up one earned run or less in three of his last four trips to the hill. Note that the 'under' has gone 3-1 over those four outings. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 107 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and New York at 6:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in the Bronx on Thursday evening. The Blue Jays are coming off an offensively explosion against the Royals yesterday, scoring 15 runs in their fourth consecutive victory. Here, they face a tougher challenge, however, as they go up against CC Sabathia. The big left-hander will be making just his third start of the season and he hasn't exactly been dominant. But I do expect him to perform well on Thursday night, noting that he allowed just one earned run in five innings of work against the Jays earlier this season. Aaron Sanchez will counter for Toronto. Like Sabathia, he's capable of pitching better than he has so far this season, but I look for a solid outing in a big spot here. Note that Sanchez is coming off his best start of the campaign, allowing just three hits and one earned run over eight innings against the Orioles. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-18 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 215 | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this total sets up on Monday night. We saw 233 total points in the series opener on Saturday with the 76ers facing little resistance en route to a 130-point performance. For their part, the Heat looked various shades of awful, struggling to knock down shots for much of the game. Yet, they still managed to score 103 points. I certainly expect to see the Heat improve offensively on Monday night but I'm not convinced they can do anything to slow down Ben Simmons and the 76ers offense. Philadelphia won't get center Joel Embiid back for this game and that actually works well for our purposes with the 'over'. The scoring will die down a bit as this series progresses, especially if the 76ers have to adjust to bringing Embiid back in the lineup but that won't happen on Monday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-12-18 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Twins are coming off a wild victory over the Astros on Wednesday afternoon but I expect to see a return to 'normal' on Thursday night at Target Field. The White Sox got off to a fine start at the plate this season but have certainly cooled off since. They're going to need a better performance from Lucas Giolito on the hill on Thursday after he struggled in his first two outings. The Sox do have high hopes for the young righty and I believe he can handle this matchup with the Twins. Jose Berrios has been making a name for himself in the Minnesota rotation and has posted a 3.29 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 13 2/3 innings of work this season. He has also recorded a stellar 13:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the early going. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-14 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I simply believe this total has been set a full run too high as two of the best pitchers in the American League, or should I say all of baseball, go head-to-head on Tuesday night. Luis Severino is off to a terrific start for the Yankees. He was nearly untouchable against the Rays last time out and while he'll face a tougher challenge here at Fenway Park, he will benefit from Xander Bogaert's absence. Severino has allowed just six hits and two earned runs over eight innings of work through two starts. Red Sox ace Chris Sale had his start pushed back to Tuesday night. He's been even better than Severino, having given up just six hits and one earned run while striking out 15 in 11 innings pitched. The Yankees obviously have a tough lineup to navigate but Sale should be up to the challenge. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-18 | Blazers v. Thunder OVER 216 | Top | 108-105 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Oklahoma City at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Oklahoma City on Sunday night. Neither team is coming off a tremendous offensive effort, but I expect both to respond positively in this key late season Western Conference showdown. Both teams have certainly been putting up big points in recent weeks, and throughout the season. Yet, the last time they met back on March 3rd we saw only 208 total points in an eight-point Blazers victory. That's a big reason why this total hasn't gotten to an unreasonable level. Prior to being held to just 100 points last time out, the Blazers had scored at least 111 points in six of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Thunder have scored just 100 and 105 points in their last two contests, but had put up 119, 121 and 132 points in their previous three. Take the over (10*). |
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03-09-18 | Rockets v. Raptors OVER 220 | Top | 105-108 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Rockets are coming off a relatively low-scoring game, by their own standards, in Milwaukee on Wednesday night but I expect a return to form on Friday as they square off against the East-leading Raptors in Toronto. The Raptors aren't going to back down from the challenge at hand, as they come in playing some of their best basketball of the season. The last time they faced a real step-up game on their home floor they fell against the Warriors so you can be sure they'll be up for this one. I don't think we'll see the Raps shy away from a potential track meet here either. Unlike previous years, Toronto has the scoring depth to keep up with a team like the Rockets. This has the potential to be one of the most entertaining games of the season and we'll grab a piece of the 'over' at what I would consider a reasonable number. Take the over (10*). |
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03-03-18 | Celtics v. Rockets OVER 216.5 | Top | 120-123 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Houston at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Houston on Saturday night. The Rockets are somewhat surprisingly coming off back-to-back relatively low-scoring affairs. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. The Celtics put up north of 130 points in their last game - a rout of the Hornets at home. Having won four games in a row, I don't believe they'll miss a beat here. Keep in mind, the Rockets have won a whopping 14 games in a row so they're obviously the 'hunted' at this point. They're also brimming with confidence and certainly won't back down from the Celtics. Look for this to be a highly-competitive matchup, with the final score soaring 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-18 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 219.5 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Pelicans have been absolutely rolling offensively over the course of their six-game winning streak but I do expect them to face some resistance against the Spurs on Wednesday night. That's not to say they can't hang tough in this game, or even keep their winning streak going, but I think we're going to see a different pace of play than the breakneck one they've settled into lately. The Spurs are coming off a big blowout win in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon, snapping a four-game losing streak in the process. Note that they had been struggling mightily defensively, but that performance against the Cavs, allowing only 94 points, should give them a bit of a shot in the arm. Look for a tightly-contested affair all the way on Wednesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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02-22-18 | Wizards v. Cavs OVER 220.5 | Top | 110-103 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Cleveland on Thursday night. Both of these teams went into the All-Star break firing on all cylinders offensively. It remains to be seen whether the break costs them their positive momentum but I'm willing to bet both pick up right where they left off and we see a track meet on Thursday night. The Wizards have actually been pushing the pace even more since losing John Wall to injury with Bradley Beal really stepping up in his absence. On the flip side, the Cavs have looked like a completely different team since their flurry of trade deadline deals. Count on an entertaining affair on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-21-18 | Flames v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Vegas at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Las Vegas on Wednesday night as the Golden Knights aim to bounce back against the Flames, who are eager to get back on track themselves. The Knights have been involved in more low-scoring affairs than high scoring ones of late, and are fresh off a 2-0 home loss to the Ducks on Monday. This will be the sixth game of a seven game homestand that wraps up on Friday night against the Canucks. Note that on this homestand they've also been held to just one goal against the Flyers. Their other three contests came against non-playoff foes in the Blackhawks, Oilers and Canadiens and I take those results, in which they scored a whopping 15 goals, with a grain of salt. The Flames suffered a 2-1 overtime loss to the Bruins on Monday afternoon and have been held to three goals or less in regulation time in eight of their last nine games. In other words, breakout performances offensively have been few and far between in recent weeks. With goaltender Mike Smith still on the shelf they'll need to continue to keep things tight defensively and I don't think they'll be interested in getting involved in a run and gun affair against the opportunistic Knights. Take the under (10*). |
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02-11-18 | Penguins v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 101 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
NHL TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and St. Louis at 12:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in St. Louis on Sunday afternoon. The Blues have scored 11 goals in their last two games after being held to only four in their previous three contests. Here they'll be facing a Pens squad that should be highly-motivated to bounce back after suffering two losses in their last three games. The 'over' has cashed in five of Pittsburgh's last six games overall. The Blues have been involved in three straight 'over' results following five consecutive 'unders'. In this very early Sunday start I expect goals to come at a premium. Take the under (10*). |
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02-07-18 | Bruins v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The case can be made for the Bruins as the best team in hockey right now and they're coming off another win last night, 3-2 over the Red Wings in Detroit - the B's third consecutive victory. Meanwhile, the Rangers continue to struggle in what is quickly becoming a lost season. We can expect a sell-off from New York prior to the trade deadline but as many have pointed out, it's tough for this team to tank for a high draft pick when they still have one of the game's best goaltenders in Henrik Lundqvist. He's expected to get the start in goal tonight while the B's will turn to backup Anton Khudobin. That doesn't represent a considerable downgrade for Boston, however, as Khudobin has gone 10-3-4 with a 2.36 GAA and .924 save percentage this season. I expect the Rangers to give the Bruins a run in this one and that should lend itself to a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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02-02-18 | Sharks v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Sharks are missing something right now and that something is the heart and soul of the franchise, Joe Thornton. San Jose simply can't get out of its own way and its going to find the sledding tough on a Friday night in Columbus. The Blue Jackets have fallen on hard times as well and I don't think they're going to climb out of it by getting involved in a fire fight with the Sharks. Instead look for the Jackets to focus on slugging it out, and relying on goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky to bail them out if needed. This total is already juiced-out to the 'under' and that's warranted in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Jacksonville and New England at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll back the ‘under’ on Sunday afternoon in Foxborough. Both of these teams lit up the scoreboard in their respective Divisional Round games last weekend. The Jaguars were buoyed by a number of Steelers turnovers and took advantage of excellent field position throughout the game, an advantage they’re not likely to enjoy against the Pats this Sunday. Meanwhile, New England faced no resistance against a middle of the road Titans defense last Saturday night. Jacksonville’s defense is undoubtedly on another level by comparison. That’s not to say they’ll shut down the Pats vaunted offense by any means, but we don’t really need them to with the total set where it is. While the New England offense gets most of the credit, we’ve seen the defense come up big time and time again and I expect no different here as they take away Jacksonville’s best offensive weapon, RB Leonard Fournette, and force QB Blake Bortles into obvious passing situations. I believe there’s a good chance we see the winning side score in the 24-27 point range here, which puts us in good position to cash our ticket. Take the under (10*). |
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01-20-18 | Rangers v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Colorado at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Rangers are coming off four consecutive 'over' results but I look for that to turn around on Saturday afternoon as they take on the red hot Avalanche in Colorado. While New York has scored nine goals in its last two contests it has to realize that is a pace it can't keep up. Note that the Rangers had scored only nine goals combined in their previous five games. The Avalanche have won an incredible eight games in a row and they're doing it thanks to some clutch offense and excellent defensive play. Here, I do expect them to face some resistance, however, noting that the Rangers have held them to two goals or less in four of the last five meetings in this series. Colorado hasn't allowed more than three goals in a game since December 16th, which speaks to its consistency in recent weeks. Take the under (10*). |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers OVER 41 | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' at Heinz Field on Sunday afternoon. The Jags certainly didn't put their best foot forward offensively against the Bills last Sunday, QB Blake Bortles in particular. However, they still managed to win the game, and now they have a shot at accomplishing something truly great in Pittsburgh. I look for a much better showing by Bortles and the offense in general. Keep in mind, RB Leonard Fournette ran wild against the Steelers back in early October, gaining 181 yards and punching in a pair of touchdowns on the ground. Ben Roethlisberger threw five interceptions against the Jags defense on that afternoon, but I expect a much different story to unfold this time around. Big Ben will have all-world WR Antonio Brown back at his disposal, and with Martavis Bryant stepping up down the stretch as well, this aerial attack is truly loaded. We're dealing with a low total, but I don't believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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01-10-18 | Thunder v. Wolves UNDER 211.5 | Top | 88-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the T'Wolves last game - a rout of the Cavaliers on Monday night. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, as they welcome the Thunder to town. Lost in that blowout win by Minnesota was its exceptional defensive effort against not just Lebron James (he was held to 10 points) but the entire Cavs offense. Yes, Cleveland did end up reaching 99 points but that was thanks only to a big fourth quarter after the T'Wolves had already solidified a positive result. Here, I'm anticipating a more tightly-contested affair, and that should lend itself to tougher defense throughout. The Thunder are known for their offense, but here they're going to need to tighten things up defensively in order to bring an end to a two-game slide. After giving up 114 and 117 points in back-to-back flat performances against Phoenix and Portland I expect them to do just that on Wednesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tennessee and Kansas City at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ as the NFL Playoffs kick off in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon. While the Chiefs did close out the regular season with their offensively seemingly humming along, the fact is, neither of these offenses was all that consistent this season. Note that the Titans haven’t allowed more than 27 points in a game since Week 11, when they suffered a 40-17 loss in Pittsburgh, playing just four days after a 24-20 home win over the Bengals. Meanwhile, the Chiefs allowed 15 points or less in their last three games that mattered (they gave up 24 points in last week’s meaningless win over the Broncos – we won with the ‘over’ in that contest). There’s really no need to overthink things here. I’m just not sure that either quarterback really gets rolling, nor do I believe the ground games will run wild in the first of this weekend’s four Wild Card matchups. Take the under (10*). |
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12-31-17 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 37.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Denver on Sunday afternoon. I'm confident we'll see both offenses open things up in this somewhat meaningless Week 17 matchup. The Chiefs will give rookie Patrick Mahomes a chance under center and I believe we'll see him perform well. Meanwhile, the Broncos offense has been a mess all season long but can take a step toward next season with a strong finish in front of the home faithful. Both defenses have had their ups and downs this season, but in reality there have been more downs than ups. Familiarity generally lends itself to lower scoring football games, but I believe the oddsmakers have gone too low with this total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers OVER 42 | Top | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The betting marketplace still hasn't caught up with these two rejuvenated offenses, at least considering this relatively low posted total. The Jags have seemingly come out of nowhere to become a contender in the AFC this season and while their defense has led the way for much of the campaign, it has been their offense that has really shouldered the load lately. A host of emerging talents at wide receiver have helped lift up QB Blake Bortles and I expect to see continuation of that strong play here in San Francisco. Meanwhile, the 49ers have found their QB of the future in Jimmy Garoppolo. In fact, he's proving to be their QB of the present as well. This will be Garoppolo's toughest test since taking over the starting job for the Niners, but I'm confident he'll exceed expectations. Take the over (10*). |
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Sean Murphy ALL Sports Top Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-04-18 | Mets v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
06-30-18 | Portugal v. Uruguay UNDER 2 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -123 | 41 h 57 m | Show |
06-29-18 | BC v. Edmonton UNDER 55.5 | Top | 22-41 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
06-29-18 | Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
06-26-18 | Padres v. Rangers UNDER 10 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
06-22-18 | Orioles v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
06-16-18 | Hamilton v. Calgary UNDER 55 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
06-15-18 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
06-13-18 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 102 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
06-12-18 | Nationals v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
06-11-18 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 109 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
06-10-18 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -119 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
06-06-18 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
05-21-18 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
05-18-18 | Yankees v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
05-15-18 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5 | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
05-12-18 | Golden Knights v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 226.5 | Top | 104-113 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
05-05-18 | Jets v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
05-05-18 | Blue Jays v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
04-19-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 107 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
04-16-18 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 215 | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
04-12-18 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
04-10-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-14 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
03-25-18 | Blazers v. Thunder OVER 216 | Top | 108-105 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
03-09-18 | Rockets v. Raptors OVER 220 | Top | 105-108 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
03-03-18 | Celtics v. Rockets OVER 216.5 | Top | 120-123 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
02-28-18 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 219.5 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
02-22-18 | Wizards v. Cavs OVER 220.5 | Top | 110-103 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
02-21-18 | Flames v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
02-11-18 | Penguins v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 101 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
02-07-18 | Bruins v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
02-02-18 | Sharks v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
01-20-18 | Rangers v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers OVER 41 | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
01-10-18 | Thunder v. Wolves UNDER 211.5 | Top | 88-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 37.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers OVER 42 | Top | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |