Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-04-21 | Temple v. Rutgers -14.5 | Top | 14-61 | Win | 100 | 48 h 24 m | Show |
CFB on BTN Game of the Year. My selection is on Rutgers minus the points over Temple at 3 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: This game was moved from Thursday to Saturday. We'll stick with our original play on Rutgers. Bettors are generally 'Rutgers-averse' as in they're not all that interested in backing the Scarlet Knights thanks to years of futility in Piscataway. Last season, the Knights actually made some headway despite a 3-6 overall record as they were highly-competitive and could have just as easily won six or seven games. Now, with their sights set on a possible Bowl game, I look for the Knights to get off to a strong start in their home opener against Temple. The Owls were one of the weakest teams in the nation in a unique Covid-tinged 2020 season. They finished 10th in the AAC, averaging just 20 points per game. The hope is that Georgia transfer D'Wan Mathis can be the answer at quarterback. He was the opening day starter for the mighty Bulldogs last year but struggled against Arkansas and only appeared in two more games before deciding to transfer. Mathis got that season-opening start due to necessity only as the Bulldogs were dealing with injuries at the position. Now he needs to learn a new offense and doesn't exactly have a cupboard full of weapons to work with. Re-al Mitchell could eat into some of Mathis' snaps. Keep in mind, Mitchell couldn't win the starting job last year, even after Anthony Russo went down to injury. Standout RB Re'Man Davis is gone. The owls coaching staff is saying all the right things when it comes to the Owls backfield options but they're also talking about a running back by committee approach. That tells me there's no true standout in the backfield entering the season. Defensively, the Owls got torched throughout the 2020 season. Now they lose their sack leader from a year ago, along with three defensive tackles. Two corners are gone as well, from a group that couldn't come up with any big plays with just three interceptions all season. Rutgers on the other hand is loaded with returning talent on the offensive side of the football. I like the stability and continuity of this group which will be led by QB Noah Vedral. He was asked to do a little too much last year and ultimately threw just nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. I expect a different story to unfold this year as he can let the likes of RB Isaih Pacheco and the outstanding WR duo of Bo Melton and Aron Cruickshank go to work. The o-line was an issue a year ago but gets all five starters back and there's really nowhere to go but up. This is a favorable matchup for that unit to ease its way into the new season as the Owls aren't likely to have a dominant pass rush. There are a couple of key losses for the Scarlet Knights to deal with on defense but they return the bulk of the unit that did enough last season to provide some optimism entering 2021. The Knights actually scooped one of Temple's best defenders from a year ago in the transfer portal in Ifeanyi Maijeh. He might not even earn a starting job which tells you that the Knights boast plenty of talent on the defensive line. They're loaded at linebacker and have something to build on in the secondary with a pair of corners that earned honorable mentions on the All-Big Ten list last season. I expect this defense to make progress this season, and like the o-line, it gets a favorable opening week matchup against a Temple offense that isn't likely to come out firing on all cylinders. If Rutgers is going to make a run at a Bowl game, this is a game it needs to win. With Syracuse and Delaware on deck there's a real chance for the Scarlet Knights to get off to a strong start before the schedule really toughens up in late September. I believe there's a class difference that simply isn't being represented with this line sitting under two touchdowns (at the time of writing). Take Rutgers (10*). |
|||||||
09-03-21 | North Carolina -5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 14 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Virginia Tech at 6 pm et on Friday. A trip to Blacksburg isn't nearly as daunting as it once was. I love the way this one sets up for the Tar Heels who have their sights set on some lofty goals once again this season. North Carolina loses plenty of talent to the NFL - that's simply the sign of a great college team. The best programs don't need to rebuild, they simply reload, and I think that's the case with Mack Brown's Tar Heels. QB Sam Howell is back to run the offense and despite losing a host of talent at the running back and wide receiver positions, I expect this high-octane attack to keep humming along. This is obviously a big season for Howell as he's likely to be a highly-touted NFL draft pick next spring. First things first, he looks to guide this Tar Heels squad to another stellar campaign. While plenty of names have moved on, the cupboard is by no means bare. RB Ty Chandler transfers in from Tennessee and should run wild behind an offensive line that was terrific at opening up holes for the ground game last season and returns all five starters this year. There are questions at the wide receiver position but this is very much a 'plug-and-play' type offense and there's a host of talented receivers that have simply been waiting for their opportunity to step out of the shadows and into the spotlight. It shouldn't take long for this offense to start piling up points. The Tar Heels defense loses standout LB Chazz Surratt but that's about it. There's talent and experience all over the field. While the North Carolina offense gets all the press, the defense can play as well and I expect it to come out and make a statement against an overmatched Hokies offense here. Virginia Tech has managed to go just 19-18 SU over the last three seasons under head coach Justin Fuente. Keep in mind, the Hokies went 19-8 in Fuente's first two seasons as he reaped the benefits of Frank Beamer recruits. If it weren't for standout RB Khalil Herbert, the Hokies probably wouldn't have won five games last year. He's gone so now someone else will need to step up. Unfortunately, the Hokies don't have the benefit of a transfer like Chandler for the Tar Heels. The biggest issue might be on the offensive line where Virginia Tech lost two of its best starters to the transfer portal. It's going to take some time for the new look o-line to come together - the problem is the Hokies won't have the benefit of time here in Week 1 as the Tar Heels are capable of scoring in bunches. Virginia Tech's defense returns just six starters from a year ago. This simply isn't the same feared Hokies defense from the Frank Beamer era. Last season, Virginia Tech gave up just shy of 450 total yards per game and 32 points per contest. I'll admit, it's likely we'll see an improved defense here in 2021. Jordan Williams transfers in from Clemson to anchor the defensive line but there are still holes that I believe the Tar Heels will be able to expose over the course of four quarters on Friday. All of North Carolina's road games this season are winnable, with the toughest test coming at Notre Dame on the final Saturday in October. If the Tar Heels are going to reach their goals, they need to get off to a fast start and I'm certain the Hokies will have their full attention this week. Take North Carolina (10*). |
|||||||
08-31-21 | Yankees -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
A.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way the Yankees are set up to bounce back from last night's series-opening loss here in Anaheim on Tuesday. In fact, New York has dropped three games in a row following an extended winning streak. Don't expect the Yanks losing ways to continue here as they look to tee off on Anaheim starter Jaime Barria. He's by no means a long-term solution in the Angels starting rotation. He's been used out of necessity this season, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. While those numbers aren't all bad, the wheels have come off lately as he has recorded a 9.72 ERA and 2.52 WHIP over his last three outings, covering a span of just 8 1/3 innings of work. Barria isn't fooling anyone right now, topping out at five strikeouts over his last seven starts. It's not as if the Halos bullpen is likely to rescue Barria here, noting that the L.A. relief corps has posted a collective 5.49 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over their last seven games. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for New York. Like Barria, he has struggled lately. However, he faces an Angels lineup that has been a true 'feast-or-famine' group lately. The Yankees check in 7-5 in Taillon's 12 road starts this season. The big difference here is that behind Taillon is a capable Yankees bullpen that has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with an incredible 24:7 save conversion ratio on the road this season. There's reason to believe the Yankees bats can eventually stretch out the winning margin in this one so we'll lay the extra run. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
08-28-21 | UTEP -9 v. New Mexico State | Top | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 465 h 11 m | Show |
College Football Game of the Month. My selection is on UTEP minus the points over New Mexico State at 9:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th. C-USA media members have the UTEP Miners slated to finish in last place in the West Division this season. I believe that the potential is there for a much better campaign, however. The Miners haven't had much recent success to boast about. They've gone a miserable 5-27 going back to the 2018 season but three of those victories came in eight games last season. Here, they have an excellent opportunity to get off to a fast start with this road tilt against New Mexico State followed by their home opener against FCS squad Bethune-Cookman. This is a team that has lofty goals this season, believing it can exceed expectations and reach a Bowl game. Note that UTEP was favored in only three games all of last season and won all three by an average margin of 14 points. UTEP returns the bulk of the squad that won those three games last season. On offense, there's finally some continuity with QB Gavin Hardison back under center. In the backfield, the potential is there for a breakout campaign from RB Deion Hankins who returns after rushing for nearly 600 yards and nine scores as a redshirt freshman last season. The Miners also have an excellent 1-2 punch at wide receiver with Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett. There are questions on the offensive line after a shaky 2020 campaign, but with plenty of experience returning there's reason for optimism. Defensively, the Miners draw a favorable matchup against an Aggies offense that has been punchless over the last couple of seasons (keep in mind New Mexico State didn't play a single game in 2020 due to Covid). UTEP has a true star on the outside in DE Praise Amaewhule, who finds himself on the Bednarik Award Watch List for the nation's best defensive player. He could quickly climb up the NFL Draft board should he repeat or improve on his incredible 2020 performance. UTEP's secondary could be leaky early on, but this is a matchup where I expect its pass rush to give the Aggies little time to get the football down the field for big plays. The Miners are set on the defensive line and should devour a New Mexico State offensive line that lacks continuity and will need time to come together as a unit. There's a QB competition ongoing for New Mexico State with junior Jonah Johnson trying to hold off Weston Eget. Eget was more effective in the team's first of two Spring games against non-FBS opponents but injured his ankle early on and missed crucial practice time as a result. Johnson struggled against the likes of Dixie State and Tarleton State and I question how he will perform should he get the nod against the Miners vaunted pass rush here. While the Aggies should have a solid backfield, again this is a tough opening matchup against a good defensive line. Defensively, the Aggies allowed their two FCS opponents in the Spring to rush for over five yards per carry. Meanwhile, they failed to come up with a single interception. While I realize they've had plenty of practice time since then and those two results don't tell the entire story, this is a defensive unit that is unrecognizable compared to the 2019 edition and I simply feel it's going to take time to round into form. Take UTEP (10*). |
|||||||
08-26-21 | Aces -10.5 v. Dream | Top | 78-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Thursday. Atlanta gave Chicago all it could handle two nights ago but again fell short by six points to remain winless since returning from the Olympic break. Now with a host of key injuries and absences it will be hard-pressed to bounce back as it welcomes what is sure to be a fired up Aces squad coming off a tough loss in Connecticut. Las Vegas has already handled the Dream with ease once this season, rolling to a 118-95 win back on July 4th (we won with the Aces and the 'over' on that night). With A'ja Wilson coming off a ridiculous (and highly uncharacteristic) 1-of-15 shooting performance against an elite Sun squad two nights ago we can expect her to lead the bounce-back charge here. Note that the Aces also got poor performances from generally steady contributors in Jackie Young, Riquna Williams and Kelsey Plum in that loss. The Dream appeared headed for another blowout loss on Tuesday before they caught fire shooting the ball in the second half. That was of course after Chicago had already built up a sizable lead and let down its guard defensively. Things have gone downhill in a hurry for the Dream who didn't exactly start the season on the right foot. A suspension to Chennedy Carter has been key to their regression but the fact is, when you shoot below 41% from the field at home and average fewer than 79 points per game, you're not going to find much success in today's WNBA. Las Vegas has shown the ability to win by margin on the road this season. Two of its last three road victories have come by 16 points or more. Note that the Aces haven't suffered any sort of drop-off in execution defensively on the road this season, holding opponents to 80.3 points per game on 41.6% shooting. I suspect this will be a situation where the Aces clamp down on the Dream offense, ultimately opening things up for their offense to rebound off Tuesday's poor showing. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
|||||||
08-20-21 | Chiefs -2 v. Cardinals | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
NFLX TV Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Arizona at 8 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the short number with the Chiefs as they travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals in front of a national ESPN audience on Friday. Both of these teams were victorious by identical 19-16 scores last week as the Chiefs defeated the Niners in San Francisco and the Cardinals took down the Cowboys here at home. It's worth noting that Arizona's victory came thanks to a pair of Matt Prater field goals inside the game's final two minutes (foiling our play on the Cowboys plus the points). Kyler Murray is expected to see his first action of the preseason for the Cardinals. He has already stated that he 'hates the preseason' and puts virtually no stock in what happens on the field. With WRs DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green and RB James Conner on and off the field due to various ailments, he may not have his full compliment of weapons during what should be a brief appearance in the first half on Friday. Also note that depth WR Andy Isabella will miss this game due to Covid protocols. Behind Murray in the QB rotation is the capable but underwhelming duo of Colt McCoy and Chris Streveler. Note that the Cards went 1-3 in the preseason in their first year under head coach Kliff Kingsbury back in 2019. So they're in uncharted territory in a sense as they look for their second consecutive preseason win here. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has said that he will play his starters for most, if not all of the first half on Friday. While it remains to be seen whether that means we'll see a full half from QB Pat Mahomes (probably not), I still think we're going to see Kansas City put forth a fairly serious effort (by preseason standards) as they look to go 2-0 on the road. The Chiefs offense will be facing a Cardinals defense that won't have the services of J.J. Watt or Chandler Jones. Kansas City doesn't have a top-flight QB rotation by any means but I do like the veteran presence of Chad Henne and Shane Buechele did show he can move the ball down the field with his arm and his legs in last week's victory (8-of-11 passing and three runs for 13 yards). I simply feel we'll see a little better execution from the Chiefs for four quarters than we will from the Cardinals as Kansas City is a road favorite for a reason. Take Kansas City (10*). |
|||||||
08-19-21 | Edmonton Elks +4.5 v. BC | Top | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over B.C. at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Elks are off to a very disappointing 0-2 start, especially considering their first two games were played at home, against seemingly inferior East Division opponents no less. Expect them to bounce back on Thursday as they hit the road for the first time this season and play their first division game. In Week 1, it was all about a lack of execution for Edmonton as it marched up and down the field but simply couldn't finish drives with touchdowns against the RedBlacks. Last week, the Elks were simply overmatched by an Alouettes squad that came out firing on all cylinders on both sides of the football, but particularly on defense as they were all over Elks QB Trevor Harris all night long. I think the case can certainly be made that the Elks overlooked the Als. They won't make the same mistake against the Lions, who are coming off an upset win on the road against the Stampeders. The news has now come out that Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell has a broken fibula and all indications are that he was playing hurt in last week's game against B.C. Credit for the Lions for coming up with the win, but let's not get too excited. They're still dealing with injury issues to starting QB Mike Reilly with reports from practice this week indicating that he is still having trouble pushing the football down the field. While he is expected to start on Thursday night you can take that news with a grain of salt as we've seen plenty of mystery around the QB position in B.C. already this season. While the Lions offensive line held up well last week, I still think it's an area of concern with big offseason acquisition Ryker Matthews sidelined due to a head injury. He isn't expected to be cleared to play this Thursday night. This one really comes down to whether we can trust the Elks offense. If Edmonton is going to turn things around, that's the area that needs to improve the most and I'm confident we'll see just that on the fast track at B.C. Place on Thursday. This is an ultra-talented group led by veteran QB Trevor Harris and WR Greg Ellingson. After being held to just one catch for one yard last week, I believe we can bank on a big bounce-back performance from Ellingson in particular. Harris was given no time to operate against the Als retooled pass rush but should find the going a little easier against the Lions this week. Take Edmonton (10*). |
|||||||
08-12-21 | Washington Football Team -2 v. Patriots | Top | 13-22 | Loss | -108 | 85 h 31 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington minus the points over New England at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. If a road team is favored in Week 1 of the NFL preseason, there's usually a valid reason for it. I believe that statement holds true in this matchup as the Washington Football Team travels to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots. Washington head coach Ron Rivera sounds like he's taking the preseason seriously right out of the gate this season, indicating his starters are likely to see extended playing time on Thursday night. Whether or not that will actually be the case remains to be seen but regardless, I like the mentality he's building in his team that these preseason games are important. Here's a telling quote from Rivera from the weekend, “I think we have to grow and mature as a football team. I don’t think we can show up and automatically assume we’re gonna pick up where we left off last year.'' Washington boasts a very capable QB rotation with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taylor Heinecke, Kyle Allen and Colorado U standout Steven Montez. The Patriots have been dealing with a number of injuries over the past week and will simply look to come out of this preseason opener healthy. Yes, rookie QB Mac Jones pushing veteran Cam Newton is a popular storyline at Patriots camp but the reality is Newton will more than likely begin the season as the starter, even though he has reportedly struggled in the early stages of training camp. He'll likely see only a cameo appearance on Thursday while Jones is still learning the offense and has spent more of his time working with the 'ones' at camp, and might struggle should he be on the field with backups on Thursday. Behind Newton and Jones will be veteran Brian Hoyer and Jake Dolegala. That duo inspires little confidence in the Pats ability to find much second half offensive success in this one. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
08-09-21 | Marlins v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Miami at 10:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the Padres yesterday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them as they open a series against the Marlins on Monday night. Zach Thompson will take the ball for Miami. Unfortunately, he's in a tough spot here, making his second consecutive start on just four days' rest. The Marlins are winless in his four road starts this season, where he's averaged just a shade over four innings per start. That spells trouble for an overworked Marlins bullpen that hasn't had a day off since July 29th. Note that Thompson has topped out at three strikeouts or less in three of his last four starts after posting six or more K's in four of his first five outings. Here, he'll be facing the Padres for the second time this season after suffering a 5-2 loss against them at home back on July 23rd. He lasted only five innings in that start, allowing three earned runs on six hits while striking out only three and walking one. Joe Musgrove will counter for San Diego. We actually cashed a ticket fading him in his most recent start in Oakland. That was no fault of his, however, as he allowed only one earned run on two hits over six innings. Now Musgrove is back home where he owns a 2.52 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this season. He faced the Marlins once this season, allowing two earned runs over six innings, also matched up against Thompson in that 5-2 win back on July 23rd. Like the Marlins 'pen, the Padres bullpen has also been overworked this season. However, they've still managed to pitch well, recording a collective 2.65 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 23 saves converted and only seven blown here at home. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
08-08-21 | Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on the Dodgers -1.5 runs over the Angels at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Dodgers bounced back from a disappointing extra innings loss on Friday with a come-from-behind 5-3 victory last night. I look for them to pick up right where they left off on Sunday as they wrap up the series win in convincing fashion. Reid Detmers will get a second straight turn in the rotation for the Angels despite pitching poorly in his big league debut. Detmers was actually favored in that start, at home against the A's, but ultimately lost the game by a lopsided 8-3 score. He gave up six hits and six earned runs, including two home runs, while striking out only two and walking two over 4 1/3 innings. It's hard to envision him faring much better against an even tougher opponent here. While the Angels bullpen has pitched better lately, this is by no means an ideal spot as they've posted a collective 5.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in day games this season. To make matters worse, the Halos inexplicably haven't had a day off since way back on July 21st. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will hand the ball to Walker Buehler. All he's done in 13 home starts this season is post a 2.16 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Better still, he has recorded a sparkling 0.47 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in three daytime outings with the Dodgers winning all three of those games. The Dodgers bullpen has of course been effective at home this season, recording a collective 3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 18 saves converted and only nine blown (entering last night's action). Take the Dodgers -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
07-25-21 | Canada v. Costa Rica | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Gold Cup Game of the Year. My selection is on Costa Rica pk'em (draw no bet) over Canada at 7 pm et on Sunday. Credit Canada for battling through key injuries to Jonathan David and Alphonso Davies to get to this stage of the tournament but now with striker Cyle Larin and midfield Ayo Akinola missing due to injury as well, I believe getting past an improving Costa Rica squad will be a bridge too far. Costa Rica has impressed in this tournament, certainly performing better than I expect this veteran squad to heading in. Keep in mind, Costa Rica does find itself ranked above Canada in the FIFA world rankings so the case can certainly be made that the wrong side is being favored here (ever so slightly). Canada went all out in its final Group Stage match against the USA, but ultimately failed to find the back of the net despite applying waves of pressure throughout the match. The low posted total gives us a hint of what to expect here as well as I suspect the Canadians will once again have a tough time finding goals with what could only be considered their 'B' squad at this point. Costa Rica will be without goalkeeper Leonel Moreira for this match after he was given a red card against Jamaica. However, this is still a well-organized Costa Rican defense that should prove difficult to break down and I don't expect it to afford the Canadians a great deal of scoring chances. Costa Rica has been clinical in attack from the get-go in this tournament and while this will arguably be its toughest test to date, I look for Ariel Lassiter in particular to shine up front in this match. Take Costa Rica pk/draw no bet (10*). |
|||||||
07-14-21 | Suns +4 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Milwaukee at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Bucks in Game 3 of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Suns as they look to grab a 3-1 stranglehold in this series on Wednesday night. Sunday's result could be chalked up as an anomaly as Phoenix had previously gone a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS when playing on two or more days' rest in these playoffs. It actually got off to a terrific start in that contest but ultimately couldn't match the Bucks desperation and fell behind by 20+ points entering the fourth quarter. The fact that Frank Kaminsky saw 13 minutes of playing time in that game tells you all you need to know about how that one played out. Here, we can expect the Suns to make the necessary defensive adjustments after Giannis Antetokounmpo went off for 41 points on 14-of-23 shooting (13-of-17 at the free throw line) in Game 3. It was just a solid all-around bounce-back game for the Bucks on Sunday with Jrue Holliday finally getting going again as well, knocking down 8-of-14 shots for 21 points. In the loss, Devin Booker shot a miserable 3-of-14 for 10 points for the Suns. We saw a similarly bad performance from him in Game 3 against the Clippers last round - a game Phoenix lost by 14 points. He responded by scoring 25 points in the next game, which the Suns won by an 84-80 score. In fact, the Suns are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in these playoffs after Booker is held to less than 20 points, winning those next games by an average margin of 14 points. Note that Phoenix checks in an incredible 9-1 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 12 points in that situation. The Suns have shot below 50% in three straight games to open this series. The last time they shot below that mark in three consecutive games they exploded with a 130-point outburst on 56.4% shooting on the road in Game 6 against the Clippers last round. Take Phoenix (10*). |
|||||||
07-09-21 | Lynx v. Aces -6.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
WNBA Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Minnesota at 10:30 pm et on Friday. The Aces have plenty of reason to get up for Friday night's showdown with the Lynx in Las Vegas as they come off a tough overtime loss against Phoenix, at home no less, and look to avenge a narrow one-point loss suffered in Minnesota on June 25th. We won with the Aces this past Sunday as they cruised to a 23-point rout of Atlanta. They couldn't follow that performance up with another stellar effort, however, as they shot just 43.9% from the field in an overtime loss to the Mercury on Wednesday night. Keep in mind, the Aces are averaging an incredible 96.7 points per game on 49.9% shooting here at home this season. They've been a much more potent offensive team at home compared to on the road while also holding the opposition to just 39.5% shooting. That's why it's somewhat perplexing that we're 'only' being asked to lay 6.5 points (at the time of writing) in this spot given the Aces closed as six-point favorites on the road against Minnesota in that most recent meeting on June 25th. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that the Lynx have gone on a tear, entering this game riding a five-game winning streak. Former Aces sharp-shooter Kayla McBride has been absolutely on fire over the last few games but what better team to slow her down than her former one. The Lynx aren't exactly brimming with scoring depth, relying heavily on veteran Sylvia Fowles and McBride. Bridget Carleton did chip in with 10 points off the bench in Wednesday's win over Dallas but she had previously topped out at just five points in her last six games. This will be Las Vegas' final home game before the extended Olympic break. Meanwhile, Minnesota will wrap up pre-Olympic play with a stop in Los Angeles on Sunday. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
|||||||
07-06-21 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 15-10 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs are obviously reeling right now, having not won a game since June 24th. After getting blown out 13-3 in the opener of this series last night, I look for them to bounce back and at the very least take this one down to the wire on Tuesday. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phillies. Like the rest of his team, he has struggled on the road this season, posting a 5.32 ERA and 1.33 WHIP to go along with a 3-6 team record in nine starts. Note that he has lasted more than 5 1/3 innings just once in his last six trips to the hill. That's concerning as the Phillies bullpen has struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 3.96 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 10 converted saves to go along with 10 blown. Despite last night's victory, the Phils are still 10 games under .500 on the road this season. Jake Arrieta will counter for Chicago. While it's not saying much, he has been better at home this season than on the road, posting a 4.08 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He'll likely be on a short leash here after struggling in his last several starts but that's not a bad thing as the Cubs bullpen has recorded a terrific 2.78 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only three blown at home this season. Note that Arrieta will be pitching on five days' rest here. The last four times he's done so he has allowed just seven earned runs in 21 innings of work. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Bucks in Game 5 of this series two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Hawks as the series shifts back to Atlanta on Saturday night. The Bucks are of course expected to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo once again on Saturday night. While there's a better chance that Trae Young is able to play for the Hawks, that's certainly no guarantee. Regardless whether he plays or not, I expect to see the Hawks bounce back with one of their best efforts of the series off of Thursday's lopsided loss. Note that the Bucks are just 4-13 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 4.0 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Hawks have gone 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.5 points in that situation. After allowing Milwaukee to shoot better than 50% from the field in Game 5 we can expect Atlanta to make the necessary defensive adjustments here, noting that it has been a considerably better defensive team at home compared to on the road this season, allowing 2.5 points per game less than its season-average while holding the opposition to under 45% shooting. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
07-03-21 | Denmark v. Czech Republic +0.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Euro Quarter-Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Czech Republic +0.5 goals over Denmark at 12 noon et on Saturday. It's time for teams to starting taking this Czech Republic side seriously after it dispatched the Netherlands in a convincing 2-0 victory last Sunday. The Czechs have done nothing but impress in this tournament and I don't expect to see them wilt under the pressure against the favored Danes on Saturday. Note that Denmark has rode a wave of positive momentum in this tournament ever since a stunning loss to Finland that was marred by Christian Eriksen's cardiac-arrest on the field in mid-match. I give the Danish side all the credit for their incredible run but now they've been sitting idle since breezing past Wales 4-0 last Saturday and I simply feel they're going to have their hands full with a cagey Czech squad. Patrik Schick has arguably been the breakout star of this tournament and he'll be called on once again to lead the Czechs to victory here. Note that they're expected to have key defender Jan Boril back from suspension for this match as well and they'll need all hands on deck given Denmark's ability to find the back of the net, scoring eight times in its last two contests. There's a certain confidence and swagger that the Czech's have displayed in this tournament and I believe it carries them to at least a level result after 90 minutes against Denmark on Saturday. Take Czech Republic +0.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
06-30-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Suns in Game 4 of this series last Saturday before switching gears to cash the first half 'over' in Game 5 on Monday. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Phoenix as it looks to wrap up this series and advance to its first NBA Finals since 1993. Paul George went into 'superstar mode' for the Clippers in Game 5, shooting a blistering 15-for-20 from the field and pouring in 41 points as Los Angeles staved off elimination with an 'upset' win in Phoenix. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I like to fade teams after they have a player 'go off' in their previous contest. Lost in George's monster performance was the fact that Devin Booker also got on track with a 31-point effort - the first time he eclipsed the 30-point mark since scoring 41 in Game 1 against the Clips. Note that the Suns check in an incredible 11-2 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 13.4 points. They've gone 23-9 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, outscoring opponents by 7.8 points on average. Phoenix has shot 45.2% or worse in three consecutive games - its longest such streak this season. It did shoot 45.7% or worse in three straight games back in round one against the Lakers. In their next game, the Suns shot better than 50% from the field and won by a 113-100 score right here at Staples Center. A similar scoreline would be well within the realm of possibility on Wednesday. Take Phoenix (10*). |
|||||||
06-29-21 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -164 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
MLB N.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers got past the Giants by a 3-2 score last night. I like San Francisco to get off to a positive start on Tuesday, however, as I fully expect it to at the very least stay level with the Dodgers through the first five innings. Kevin Gausman remains one of the most underrated and underappreciated starters in baseball this season. He checks in sporting an incredible 1.02 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 10 road starts. Here, he'll be pitching on five days' rest for the third consecutive start. While he will be facing the Dodgers for the second time this season, it's worth noting that he has allowed a grand total of just four earned runs in 26 innings of work when facing a team for a second (or third) time this season. By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Giants bullpen that while solid, has managed to blow 11 saves on the road this season. Walker Buehler will counter for Los Angeles. There's really not a lot negative that can be said of the Dodgers ace (that title is of course debatable given how well Clayton Kershaw has pitched). However, he did labor through his most recent start, allowing three earned runs on five hits, including two home runs, while also issuing a pair of walks over six innings in his most recent start against the Cubs - a 4-0 Dodgers loss. Here, he'll be pitching on just four days' rest. The Giants will be facing Buehler for the third time this season. Take San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
|||||||
06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +7 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the Bucks on Tuesday coming off Khris Middleton's 38-point explosion in Game 3 (we won with the 'under' in that game). The Hawks are of course dealing with an injury to Trae Young, who may or may not be able to play due to a bruised foot suffered on Sunday. Whether he can go or not, I still like Atlanta in this spot as we're being given a generous helping of points with the home side, noting that the Hawks have already defeated the Bucks by seven as a six-point home underdog without Young in the lineup back in late April. Milwaukee has shot better than 51% in consecutive games - the first time it has accomplished that feat since May 13th and 15th. On that occasion, they followed up those two games with a 118-112 loss in Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite, shooting just 42.2% from the field in that loss. Note that the Bucks check in a miserable 4-12 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points in that situation. They're also 8-22 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games overall this season, as is the case here, only managing to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points in that spot. The Hawks are 15-5 ATS playing at home off a double-digit home loss over the last three seasons and 28-15 ATS when at home off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.3 points on average in the latter situation. Finally, in 10 games played at home after two or more consecutive ATS losses this season, the Hawks have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 6.3 points. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
06-29-21 | Ukraine v. Sweden | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
Euro Knockout Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Sweden pk (draw no bet) over Ukraine at 3 pm et on Tuesday. We won with Sweden in its most recent match, a 3-2 victory in a wild contest against Poland. Credit the Swedes hanging in there despite Robert Lewandowski's heroics and thanks to the victory they draw a favorable matchup against Ukraine here. Ukraine is certainly fortunate to be here after closing out the group stage with a 1-0 defeat against Austria. While it showed plenty of fight in a narrow 3-2 loss to the Netherlands in its opener and ultimately faced little resistance in a win over North Macedonia, the tournament has generally been a mixed bag for Andriy Shevchenko's squad. That's a stark contrast to the Swedes, who have been rock solid, showing excellent form defensively and just enough attacking prowess to make them a dangerous team moving forward in this tournament. Sweden is now undefeated in its last eight matches and I don't believe Ukraine will be the side to end that run. While I have a lot of respect for Ukraine, particularly for the duo of Zinchenko and Yarmolenko, I look for Sweden to ultimately prevail in what will likely be a low-scoring affair. Take Sweden (10*). |
|||||||
06-26-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Suns couldn't have played much worse in Game 3 of this series but perhaps that was to be expected after they grabbed a 2-0 series lead thanks to a thrilling last-second win in Game 2 (we won with the Clippers in Game 3). Here, I look for Phoenix to bounce back in all areas of the game as it looks to grab a 3-1 stranglehold on the series before heading back home. Much has been made of Devin Booker's awful 5-of-21 shooting night and whether it had anything to do with him wearing a protective mask after breaking his nose in Game 2. Regardless whether the mask played a role, I expect him to respond with a big performance on Saturday night. The best generally bounce back and Booker is certainly in that elite category a this stage of his career. For the Suns, Game 3 was also their first game of the series with Chris Paul back in the lineup. I did figure it would take some time for him to get re-acclimated with the offense and that certainly appeared to be the case. Look for a more cohesive effort from the Suns offense here on Saturday. Note that Phoenix has gone 8-1 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 12.9 points on average in that situation. The Suns have been an excellent bounce-back team all season, going 16-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.2 points when coming off a loss of any kind. While the Suns did hold Paul George relatively in check in Game 3 (he shot 9-of-26 from the field for 27 points), they'll need to play with a lot more intensity here after George and Ivica Zubac combined to haul in 31 rebounds. Again, it was no real surprise that we saw Phoenix take a breath in Game 3 after they had not only won the first two games in this series, but nine straight overall. The only other time they lost a game by double-digits in these playoffs, they responded with a 100-92 victory right here at Staples Center in Game 4 against the Lakers in round one. Take Phoenix (10*). |
|||||||
06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets -1 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We got what we wanted in Game 6 of this series as the Bucks cruised to an easy, double-digit victory to force a seventh and deciding game back in Brooklyn on Saturday night. Here, we'll back the Nets at a short number as they look to hold serve for a fourth time at home and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals in the process. The Bucks have offered the Nets their best punches in the last two games of this series, shooting better than 49% from the field in a six-point loss here in Brooklyn in Game 5 before registering a 16-point home win in Game 6. Now it's the Nets turn to answer back with a peak performance here at home, even without Kyrie Irving. Brooklyn has of course been a tremendous home team this season, going 34-8 while outscoring the opposition by just shy of eight points per game. The Nets have gone a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS here at home in these playoffs. Game 6 was always going to be an uphill battle for the Nets off an emotional, Kevin Durant-fueled Game 5 victory here at home. Not surprisingly, the Bucks came out with more energy and had little trouble forcing a seventh game. Now the situation sets up well for the Nets, noting that Milwaukee has gone 5-14 ATS when playing on the road after winning two of its last three games this season. We're dealing with a short pointspread here for a reason as the Nets certainly aren't the same team without their 'Big Three' intact. With that being said, I do think they're right where they want to be, at home with a chance to close out this series, and I look for them to take full advantage. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
|||||||
06-19-21 | A's +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -165 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
American League Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the A's on the run-line (free play) last night even though we didn't even need the insurance run in a 5-3 victory. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they continue their series with the Yankees in the Bronx. Chris Bassitt gets the start for Oakland. He was quietly an A.L. Cy Young contender last season and after a slow start this year, he has been excellent for the A's once again. Bassitt checks in sporting a 3.98 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in seven road starts this season with the A's winning all seven of those games. While he was shaky in his most recent road start in Seattle back on June 1st, it's worth noting that he was pitching on four days' rest for the second straight start in that one. Here, he pitches on five days' rest for a second consecutive outing. Bassitt will also have the advantage of the Yankees having never faced him. Behind Bassitt is a solid A's bullpen that entered last night's game having worked just 20 2/3 innings over their last seven contests, with an off day in the mix as well. They've posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season. Domingo German will counter for New York. He's generally been awful over his last four starts. In six daytime starts this season he owns an ugly 5.34 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He averages just 5 1/3 innings per start here at home and while that's generally not a problem as the Yankees bullpen is terrific, we're talking about a group that has been somewhat overworked lately and has struggled a bit as a result. Entering last night's game, the Yankees relief corps had worked 29 1/3 innings over their last seven contests, recording a collective 3.99 ERA and 1.43 WHIP along the way. Finally, I'll point out that the A's have faced German three times since the 2018 season, knocking him around for 13 earned runs in just 15 1/3 innings. With the A's roster mostly intact from recent years, look for them to find continued success here today. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
06-16-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Playoff Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Habs for at least staying in the game in the opener of this series on Monday night. They could have easily folded the tent after falling behind 2-0 early in the second period but answered back with a goal to cut the lead in half. They could have also let the game get out of hand after a quick response from Vegas to make it 3-1 but instead they battled in the third period, ultimately outshooting the Knights 12-9 in the final frame and falling by a 4-1 score. The Canadiens are very much a team with 'nothing to lose' here in the Stanley Cup semi-final round. Few expected them to get out of the first round let alone make it out of the North Division. Facing the Knights is a tall task and I certainly don't expect them to win this series. However, I do think they're well-positioned to give Vegas a run in Game 2 on Wednesday night. Note that Montreal is 11-5 after scoring a goal or less in its last game this season, averaging 3.1 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that spot. We've also seen the Habs allow just 2.4 goals per game and outscore opponents by an average margin of 0.4 goals when revenging a loss by four goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation coming up 21 times previously. The Knights are just 4-10 when coming off consecutive home wins by two goals or more in franchise history, allowing 3.5 goals per game and outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that spot. Vegas is a terrific team and certainly has a clear path to a Stanley Cup title at this point. However, I don't think it will go completely untested in this series. Look for the Habs to keep things close at the very least in Game 2 on Wednesday night. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Phoenix at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. This line is moving in the wrong direction in my opinion. While the Nuggets are highly unlikely to give the Suns a serious run int his series I do think that they can salvage at least one game. Note that Denver is 10-2 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 10.3 points. In fact, coming off a home loss of any kind this season, the Nuggets have outscored opponents by 12.8 points on average the 12 times that situation has come up. They're also an impressive 17-5 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 14.4 points in that situation. I have a lot of respect for Phoenix. There's a reason I didn't fade them in Game 3 (instead playing the 'under'). However, the fourth win is always the toughest in a series and I expect them to get extended at least one more game against a Nuggets squad that should play with some pride on Sunday night. Take Denver (10*). |
|||||||
06-12-21 | Padres v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
N.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over San Diego at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets got the better of the Padres in last night's pitcher's duel (we won with the 'under') and I expect a similar story to unfold on Saturday. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for San Diego. He's off to an incredible start this season and of course already has a no-hitter to his credit. However, he has struggled in four daytime starts, posting a 4.50 ERA and he averages just north of five innings per start on the road. Musgrove has already faced the Mets once this season and it was one of his worst starts of the season as he allowed three earned runs on eight hits over just five innings (he did strike out 10 along the way). While the Padres bullpen working behind him has posted excellent overall numbers this season, I still feel it's an overworked group, having already pitched 271 innings (prior to last night's game). We've seen some regression from the Padres relief corps in recent weeks and could certainly see more of that should they get extended today. Marcus Stroman will counter for the Mets. He didn't allow a single earned run over 6 2/3 innings when he faced San Diego on June 6th. Stroman checks in sporting an impressive 2.02 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in four home starts this season. He's lasted at least six innings in six straight starts and behind him is one of the best bullpens in baseball, particularly here at home where the Mets relief corps has posted a collective 1.69 ERA and 1.11 WHIP (entering last night's action). We'll grab the insurance run here but hopefully won't need it. Take New York +1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
06-11-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Run-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Texas at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Dodgers are showing signs of getting rolling again, coming off a three-game sweep of the Pirates in Pittsburgh. I look for them to win in convincing fashion with Clayton Kershaw on the hill against Mike Foltynewicz on Friday night. Foltynewicz is a somewhat familiar face to the Dodgers from his days in the National League. In six career starts against them, he's posted a 6.11 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Of course, that's pretty much par for the course for Folty as so far this season he owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in four road starts, with the Rangers winning just one of those games. While he has worked seven innings in two of his last three starts, he's still averaging just 5.5 innings per start this season which is concerning as the Rangers bullpen has been awful on the road, posting a collective 5.58 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Clayton Kershaw is coming off back-to-back rough outings but should get back on track here. He has posted a 3.55 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in six home starts, with the Dodgers winning four of those games. Note that he's absolutely owned the opposition in three previous interleague starts, recording a sparkling 0.92 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings of work. While the Rangers have hit better against left-handers this season, better is a relative term in this case as they're still averaging just 4.1 runs per game and hitting .241 against southpaws. With Kershaw averaging around 6 1/3 innings per start here at home, the Dodgers bullpen may not have to factor in too much, but it's worth noting that they've recorded a collective 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home this season. Over their last seven games (entering yesterday's action) they've posted a 2.60 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with no blown saves. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
06-09-21 | Storm v. Dream +10 | Top | 95-71 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
WNBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Seattle at 7 pm et on Wednesday. In my opinion, this is a bit of a lazy WNBA line set by the oddsmakers. Yes, the Storm are the defending champs and yes, Atlanta is coming off a 20-point drubbing at the hands of a middling Minnnesota squad - its second straight loss at the hands of the Lynx. However, I fully expect to see the Dream get up for this game. Despite the consecutive losses in Minnesota, Atlanta has been playing better lately, going 5-1 ATS over its last six contests. While losing guard Chennedy Carter to injury hurt, we've seen highly-touted draft pick Aari McDonald finally start to acclimate herself to the offense in recent games, most recently scoring a season-high 15 points in consecutive games against the Lynx. Meanwhile, Tiffany Hayes has scored 20+ points in four of her last five games and Cheyenne Parker, the Dream's big offseason acquisition, is rounding back into form after contributing 19 minutes and 12 points last time out. Seattle is coming off a hard-fought 1-1 split in a two-game set against the Dallas Wings at home and checks in just 1-5 ATS over its last five contests. I'll grab the generous helping of points with a Dream squad that despite its early-season struggles, hasn't lost three games in a row yet this season. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
06-05-21 | Sky +5 v. Sparks | Top | 63-68 | Push | 0 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Los Angeles at 3 pm et on Saturday. We just missed with the Sky in their last game as they blew a late five-point fourth quarter lead before dropping a three-point decision in overtime - their second straight heartbreaking loss at the hands of the Phoenix Mercury. Here, they'll continue their road trip against a Sparks squad that is off a blowout win against the lowly Fever, but play without a number of key players. While Los Angeles gets bit by the injury bug, Chicago gets healthier. The Sky welcomed back Allie Quigley and Stefanie Dolson last game and while both played limited minutes, they both contributed and I expect both to make even more of an impact on Saturday. Chicago isn't off to the start it had hoped for this season but there's obviously plenty of time to turn things around. This is a key spot and I look for the Sky to come up big. Take Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers -2 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Everyone is down on the Lakers right now. Perhaps rightfully so after an ugly 30-point loss in Game 5 of this series two nights ago. Concerning for the Suns though is the fact that Chris Paul was forced to leave Tuesday's game after aggravating his shoulder injury. Now he'll be forced to play on just one day of rest once again - just as we saw between Games 2 and 3 when the Lakers rolled to a 14-point victory here at home. It was only after two off days that CP3 was able to turn in a stellar performance in last Sunday's key Game 4 victory here in Los Angeles. While Anthony Davis' status remains in question for Los Angeles I would expect him to play in this elimination game, although even if he can't go, I still like the Lakers at a short number here. Even with Lebron and AD in and out of the lineup this season, Los Angeles has still managed to go 23-16 here at home, outscoring the opposition by 3.5 points on average. Better still, the Lakers have outscored opponents by an average of 6.7 points as a favorite this season. Considering the Lakers closed as -6.5-point favorites in both Games 3 and 4 here at home, I believe we're dealing with an overreaction to the last two results in this series. AD's status certainly plays a factor as well but perhaps a little more than it should as the defending champs face elimination on Thursday. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
NBA First Round Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:35 pm et on Saturday. You probably won't find the majority of bettors looking to back the Heat here as they come off consecutive embarrassing performances to dig themselves a virtually insurmountable 0-3 hole in this series. Believe it or not, I think the Heat are set up well to avoid elimination on Saturday afternoon, however. Note that Milwaukee is just 11-24 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season. Better still, the Bucks are 5-16 ATS after posting three or more consecutive victories this season, outscoring opponents by just 0.7 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Heat have gone 13-3 ATS after giving up 105 points or more in five consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive 7.9 points per game in that spot. The fourth win is generally the toughest in a playoff series and I expect that to hold true here. While the Heat were absolutely crushed in Game 3, at least Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler both managed to post series-high scoring totals. I expect that duo to show some pride and lead the Heat to a strong bounce-back effort here. Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
05-28-21 | Lynx +7.5 v. Storm | Top | 72-82 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
WNBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Seattle at 10 pm et on Friday. As defending WNBA champions, Seattle is likely to get every opponent's best shot this season. Perhaps even moreso here as Minnesota has been idle since dropping a 12-point decision at home against the Storm back on May 20th. The Lynx were right there in that one until Seattle caught fire in the fourth quarter. Here, I look for Minnesota to do a better job of keeping things close for 40 minutes. Note that the extra time off has given the Lynx a chance to get underrated Napheesa Collier back for this matchup. She was a force at both ends of the floor last season and adds to an already talented Lynx lineup. The extra time off should have also served to get former Las Vegas Aces sharp-shooter Kayla McBride better acclimated in the offense. Seattle has reeled off three straight wins since opening the season with a 1-1 split in a two-game set against the Aces. However, the Storm have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games (we settled for a 'push' with Seattle in its three-point win over Connecticut earlier this week). With Minnesota desperate to end its three-game slide to open the season, we'll grab the generous helping of points on Friday night. Take Minnesota (10*). |
|||||||
05-28-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
NBA First Round Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Clippers have dug themselves an 0-2 hole heading to Dallas for Game 3 but I don't expect them to panic. No NBA series is really over (for all intents and purposes) until a team goes down 3-0. Here, the Clips are actually set up well as they've gone 22-10 ATS on the road revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Better still, they're an incredible 13-2 ATS after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 19.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Mavs have generally been a better team at home off a loss in recent years, going 6-16 ATS the last 22 times they've returned home following a road victory, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that spot. Dallas has now won three straight meetings in this series, noting that it hadn't even managed to take two straight matchups in the previous nine games between these two teams going back to the bubble in Orlando last summer. A quality road team having gone 21-15, outscoring the opposition by 4.3 points on average, I look for the Clippers to come up with an answer in Big D on Friday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
05-27-21 | Suns v. Lakers -7 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Lakers (and the 'over') in Game 2 of this series and we'll come right back with them again in Game 3 as the scene shifts to Staples Center in Los Angeles. Chris Paul is obviously the engine that runs the Suns offense. Yes, Devin Booker is electric and capable of going off on any given night, but without a healthy CP3, the Suns aren't going anywhere. Paul is nursing a shoulder injury he suffered in the opener of this series and was limited to just 22 ineffective minutes in Game 2. Now with only a day off between games, I'm not sure how much he can give the Suns on Thursday night. There's probably a better chance we see him go full throttle in Game 4 as there will be a two-day layoff between games. Regardless, the Suns are not well-positioned to take control of this series here, noting they've gone just 5-5 over their last 10 road games after starting the season 19-7 away from home. Meanwhile, home court has suddenly meant something to the Lakers as they've reeled off five straight victories here at home, not coincidentally the streak has had a lot to do with them getting healthier down the stretch. We saw the Lakers clamp down on the Suns offense in Game 2. We've yet to see them turn in their best effort offensively but I do think it's coming. Why not on Thursday, in a pivotal Game 3 matchup on their home floor. Note that L.A. checks in 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six home matchups against Phoenix. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
05-27-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NHL First Round Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Leafs have cruised to three straight victories in this series to push the Habs to the brink of elimination but I don't expect Montreal to go down without a fight on Thursday. Note that Montreal is an incredible 21-8 when coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. They're also 13-6 when playing on the road after scoring two goals or less in consecutive games over that same stretch, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.5 goals. Meanwhile, the Leafs are just 11-14 after winning three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons. They're also 10-14 when playing their third game in four nights over that stretch, outscored by 0.2 goals on average in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that the Habs have been in a situation where they've been seeking revenge against an opponent for a loss by three or more goals on 11 occasions this season and in that situation they've allowed just 2.1 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average of 0.4 goals. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -2 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Round 1 Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Knicks after they played poorly but still took the Hawks right down to the wire in the opener of this series on Sunday. The fantastic duo of R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle combined to knock down just 12 shots and score only 29 points in Game 1, something I look for them to make amends for here in Game 2. Hawks superstar Trae Young got to the free throw line nine times (and knocked down all nine shots) in Game 1 and now continues to get called out for 'flopping'. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Knicks get the benefit of the doubt from the officials a little more here in Game 2. Note that the Hawks are just 5-15 ATS on the road after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 7.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Knicks have thrived in similar situations to this all season, going 18-8 ATS as a favorite and and incredible 25-6 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3, as is the case here. Better still, they're 17-2 ATS when at home in the latter situation this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.9 points. Finally, note that the Knicks have taken four of the last six meetings with Atlanta here at home. I don't believe there's any real intimidation factor at play in this one. Now that the Hawks have earned their split in New York, I look for the Knicks to answer back and send the series back to Atlanta knotted at one game apiece. Take New York (10*). |
|||||||
05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Blazers took the opener of this series, which shouldn't have come as a big surprise as they played exceptionally well down the stretch this season and they've been terrific on the road, going 23-14. Here, I expect the Nuggets to bounce back, however, noting that they've gone 25-12 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of six points, and have taken seven of their last 10 home meetings with Portland. The Blazers have now won consecutive games in this series after the Nuggets had taken the previous two. Note that the Nuggets check in 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when trailing a playoff series, outscoring the opposition by 6.9 points per game. They've also a terrific 13-4 ATS when coming off two more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.8 points. All respect to Portland, it was the better team in Game 1, but now it has accomplished its goal of earning at least a split here in Denver. Look for the Blazers to fall short on Monday. Take Denver (10*). |
|||||||
05-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
NBA First Round Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Sunday. The Grizzlies did well to take down the eight-seed with consecutive wins in the play-in tournament, including Friday's upset win over the Warriors in San Francisco. Here, however, I look for them to get a bit of a reality check against the well-rested Jazz. Utah has been positively dominant here at home this season, posting a 31-5 record while outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game. While the Grizzlies were battling it out in a pair of close games against the Spurs and Grizzlies the Jazz were at home resting, and getting healthier with both Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley expected to play in Sunday's playoff-opener. Mitchell obviously gives the Jazz a major boost. Even without him, they still put up gawdy offensive numbers, scoring more than 120 points in four of their final seven games down the stretch. While Memphis has been locked in defensively this will undoubtedly be a difficult challenge against a Jazz squad that averages over 117 points per game and shoots better than 47% from the field at home this season. I'm concerned that the Grizzlies offense might not be able to keep pace here considering they check in having shot 44.4% or worse from the field in each of their last four contests. Take Utah (10*). |
|||||||
05-22-21 | Storm -6 v. Wings | Top | 100-97 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
WNBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Saturday. Dallas exploded for 94 points in its season-opening rout of Los Angeles last Friday night but should find the going much tougher as it returns home to host a Seattle squad that already appears to be in midseason form. The Storm are off to a 2-1 start with their lone loss coming in the second of a two-game set against Las Vegas. We should see the Seattle offense go off in this game as it faces a below-average Dallas defense that is missing a number of key cogs including two-way star Allisha Gray on Saturday. Arike Ogunbowale is an all-world talent for the Wings but she can't carry the team all on her own. I believe secondary scoring could be an issue moving forward with Gray sidelined as well as Satou Sabally. Seattle has taken five straight meetings in this series, going 4-1 ATS along the way. That includes a pair of double-digit wins in the bubble last summer. Note that the Storm check in an impressive 23-10 ATS after giving up 75 points or more in their last game over the last three seasons and 20-10 ATS against division opponents over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by more than 10 points per game in the latter situation. Take Seattle (10*). |
|||||||
05-21-21 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 goals over Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Friday. This series looks like it's over by all accounts after consecutive lopsided victories by the Avs but with the scene shifting to St. Louis for Game 3 I do look for the Blues to put up a fight. Note that Colorado is just 21-30 when playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in its last game over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, St. Louis checks in 11-2 when playing at home off consecutive losses by three goals or more, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. The Blues have more than held their own here at home against the Avalanche over the last three seasons, taking six of the last eight meetings. We'll grab the insurance goal with St. Louis here as the price warrants such a play, noting the Avs managed just one win by more than a single goal in four tries here in St. Louis this season. Take St. Louis +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
05-18-21 | Lynx -1.5 v. Liberty | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over New York at 7 pm et on Tuesday. New York is off to a perfect 2-0 start to the season but is fortunate to have faced the lowly Indiana Fever twice, and it's worth noting it needed a last-second game-winning shot from Sabrina Ionescu to secure one of those victories. Minnesota suffered a narrow two-point loss in its home-opener against Phoenix but should bounce back here against a weaker opponent. Keep in mind, the Lynx have taken four of their last five meetings with the Liberty, sweeping last year's two matchups by 26 and 30-point margins. Minnesota is a perennial WNBA title contender and should be right there in the conversation this season with the addition of Kayla McBride, who contributed 17 points in the season-opener. Of course the Lynx will be even stronger once they get Napheesa Collier back from quarantine later this week but for now, I believe this is a matchup they can handle with the Liberty missing a number of key players as well. Take Minnesota (10*). |
|||||||
05-14-21 | Sun -2.5 v. Dream | Top | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I actually like the prospects of both of these teams but Connecticut is the squad that has legitimate championship aspirations, even if the odds are long on the Sun reaching that pinnacle for the first time in franchise history. The Sun return most of their roster from a year ago - a team that got off to a slow start before eventually rounding into form and going on a deep playoff run. While the Sun won't have Alyssa or Jasmine Thomas for Friday's opener, they do have Jonquel Jones back after she opted-out of the 2020 campaign, and should also have the services of Briann January (for limited minutes at least) after there was some question whether she would be able to start the season due to Covid quarantine. Losing Alyssa Thomas for the season to a torn achilles was obviously a major blow, but I do feel the Sun have the depth to stay competitive, especially if rookie DiJonai Carrington can exceed (or even just meet) expectations following an impressive training camp. Look out for Brionna Jones as well as she took on a bigger role in Jonquel Jones' absence last season and comes off an incredible championship season in the Czech Republic League. Atlanta has the potential to improve considerably following its second consecutive losing season but I'm not sure we're going to see it all work right out of the gate. The Dream will be without Tiffany Hayes and Cheyenne Parker for their opener, which means they'll rely heavily on sophomore guard Chennedy Carter and third-overall draft pick Aari MacDonald. Head coach Nicki Collen bolted for Baylor on short notice, leaving the team under the guidance of interim coach Mike Petersen. With a lot of new pieces to work with, it will likely take some time to figure things out. The potential is there for the Dream to be one of the entertaining teams in the league with a guard-heavy rotation, but on night one of the regular season, I expect them to fall short against a more seasoned Sun squad. Take Connecticut (10*). |
|||||||
05-13-21 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
A.L. Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over New York at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Rays as they try to avoid the series sweep at the hands of the Yankees on Thursday night. Tampa Bay has run into a couple of hot pitchers over the last two nights, unable to get anything going against Jordan Montgomery and Gerrit Cole. Here, it will benefit from facing what I would consider the weak link in the Yankees rotation in Jameson Taillon. The Yanks are just 2-4 with Taillon on the hill this season and he's posted an ugly 10.56 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in two road starts - both losses. We did see Taillon work into the seventh inning in his most recent start, but that was at home against the light-hitting Nationals and New York still lost the game 11-4 (we won with the underdog Nats in that game). Crafty veteran Rich Hill will take the ball for the Rays tonight. After a rough start to the season he has righted the ship over his last three starts, allowing just two earned runs on five hits over 15 innings of work. Hill has already guided the Rays to a victory against the Yankees this season, 10-5 back on April 9th. Hill's 4.66 home ERA is slightly misleading as he's recorded a stellar 0.98 WHIP here at Tropicana Field. Despite losing the first two games in this series, Tampa Bay is still 12-9 at home against New York over the last three seasons, and 5-3 overall against the Yankees here in 2021. I'll grab the insurance run with the Rays here as the very reasonable price warrants such a play. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
05-12-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -6 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This is a brutal spot for the Wizards as they play a second straight game in Atlanta (following an off day yesterday) on the heels of a momentum-killing one-point loss here on Monday (note they outscored the Hawks by 16 points and scored 45 points in the fourth quarter, only to fall one point short). Washington has been battling hard to earn a spot in the NBA Play-in Tournament but how bad do they really want it apart from Russell Westbrook who continues to stuff the statsheet and chase individual records? The Hawks have won eight straight games here at home with the first seven of those victories coming by 12, 16, 15, 7, 11, 9 and 32-point margins prior to Monday's close call. Atlanta is in an excellent spot here having gone 8-1 ATS when playing at home off a home win this season, outscoring the opposition by 9.4 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in allowing a whopping 122 points per game when playing with double-revenge, as is the case here after dropping the previous two meetings this season. The Wizards have been involved in so many tightly-contested games lately - I simply expect them to run out of gas in this spot. Keep in mind, Bradley Beal remains sidelined with a hamstring injury while the Hawks are as healthy as they've been in quite some time after dealing with numerous key injuries over the course of the season. The Hawks are a good defensive team that hasn't played like it over the last couple of games but I look for them to turn in a solid performance in that department here, noting they have held opponents to 45.6% shooting on their home floor this season. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
05-08-21 | Thunder v. Warriors -14 | Top | 97-136 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Oklahoma City at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors have already crushed the Thunder twice this season including two nights ago as they rolled to a 21-point victory. I don't mind laying all the points with the Warriors here as they check in playing phenomenal defensive basketball having held four straight opponents to 43.3% or worse shooting. They won three of those four games, with all three victories coming by at least 15 points. The Thunder are simply playing out the string at this point and have managed to shoot better than 40.9% just once over their last five contests. While they'll be looking for quick revenge here, no more so than last time out as they were looking to avenge an even more lopsided 147-109 loss at home back on April 14th. The fact is, the Thunder are overmatched against most opponents right now and the Warriors aren't likely to sleepwalk through this one as they continue to fight for playoff positioning in a crowded Western Conference. Note that the SU winner has also covered the spread in 40 of the Warriors last 41 games overall. I look for that trend to continue tonight. Take Golden State (10*). |
|||||||
05-04-21 | Oilers v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -141 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Oilers took the first game in this two-game set in Vancouver by a 5-3 score last night. The Canucks have now dropped five games in a row although four of those five losses came on the road. 12 of their 19 victories have come on home ice this season where they've been outscored by an average margin of just 0.2 goals. Note that Edmonton checks in 0-5 when coming off consecutive wins by two goals or more this season, as is the case here, outscored by 2.2 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Canucks have gone 16-9 when coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average of 0.9 goals in that spot. As well as the Oilers have been playing, they haven't strung together three consecutive victories since March 17th to 20th. With this the second game of four in a row against Edmonton, look for the Canucks to show some push back on Tuesday night. We'll grab the insurance goal as the price warrants such a play. Take Vancouver +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets are coming off consecutive losses, including a three-point setback in a poor all around performance here in Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon. I look for Brooklyn to answer back positively here on Tuesday as it finds itself in what I would consider a smash spot offensively after being held to 42.1% and 42.7% shooting in its last two games. Keep in mind, the Nets had shot 48.2% or better in seven of its previous 11 contests, even with what seems like a merry-go-round rotation on any given night. The Nets are averaging north of 119 points per game on an impressive 49.3% shooting on the road this season. Of course, the Bucks have been every bit as good offensively here at home this season and enter this game off consecutive victories. They haven't won three games in a row since April 11th to 15th, however, going just 5-4 SU and ATS since. They're certainly not invincible here at home, having lost five games outright here in Milwaukee since March 26th. Note that the Nets are 34-16 ATS when on the road revenging a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 points on average in that situation. Milwaukee checks in a miserable 7-17 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season, as is the case here. The Bucks are also just 29-49 ATS when coming off a home win by three points or less the last 78 times that situation has come up. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
|||||||
05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks -1 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Portland at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Hawks are well-positioned to go on a late season run after a brief lull on the road last week. Trae Young returned to the lineup two games back and proceeded to pour in 30+ points in both contests. Now Atlanta draws a tough matchup with the surging Blazers on Monday with Portland coming off its fourth straight road win to open its current trip last night in Boston. I believe the Hawks will be up to the challenge in this revenge spot after suffering a 112-106 loss in Portland back in mid-January. Note that the last time these two teams met here in Atlanta, the Hawks prevailed by a 129-117 score last February. The Hawks shook off a three-game losing streak to deliver a 108-97 win over the Bulls on Saturday. They've scored just 104 and 108 points since Trae Young returned to the lineup but an offensive outburst is coming, and could very well come against a road-weary Blazers squad on Monday. Note that Portland allows 114.9 points per game on 47.6% shooting on the road this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in 13-5 ATS as a home favorite this season, allowing just 104.3 points per game in that situation. The Hawks have put together a terrific stretch of defensive basketball here at home lately, allowing 96, 103, 104 and 97 points in their last four home games - all victories. Note that Atlanta is 26-14 ATS the last 40 times it has played at home revenging a loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 points, which is more encouraging when you consider that trend goes back two seasons, when the Hawks were a far weaker team than they are this year. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
05-02-21 | Raptors v. Lakers -7 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Toronto at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. Bettors were quick to get behind the Lakers on Friday night as Lebron James made a surprising return and Los Angeles closed as an 11.5-point favorite. Things didn't go well, however, as the Lakers ultimately fell by four points against the Kings. I expect a better performance from the Lakers here as they look to regain their footing and snap their two-game skid before a tougher matchup against the Nuggets tomorrow night. It actually wasn't that bad of a game from Los Angeles on Friday as it shot 50% from the field and held Sacramento to 45.3% shooting. It was a tough scheduling spot in the first place, given the Lakers were returning home on just one day rest and across three time zones following a four-game road trip. The Raptors have opened their current trip with consecutive losses in Denver and Utah. Toronto is simply playing out the string at this point and doesn't look all that interested in winning games, resting Kyle Lowry last night. I have no doubt the Raps will get up for this game on Sunday - I'm just not convinced they can match the Lakers hunger in this spot. Note that Toronto has allowed three straight opponents to shoot better than 47% from the field and things don't figure to get any easier here, playing on no rest after consecutive games in altitude. There's been plenty of talk after Lebron James indicated following Friday's game that he may never again be 100% healthy. That's just talk. If he's in the lineup on Sunday, he'll play well. If he's not, I still like the Lakers at a reasonable price against a road-weary Raptors squad playing their sixth game in the last nine nights, in five different cities (by contrast the Lakers are playing just their fifth game over that stretch, in four different cities). Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
05-01-21 | Pistons v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 94-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'm not sure the average bettor realizes how dire the Pistons injury situation is right now. Mason Plumlee, Jerami Grant and Cory Joseph have all been ruled out for Saturday's game (among many others) while Hamidou Diallo, who has given them good minutes and production off the bench, is now listed as doubtful as well. Detroit hung around for a while against an undermanned Mavs squad on Thursday (Luka Doncic missed that game) but still fell by double-digits, despite shooting better than 50% from the field. Here, the Pistons will run into a Hornets squad that should certainly be in a foul mood following consecutive losses, as they continue to fight for a playoff spot in the East. Charlotte is of course dealing with injury issues of its own but it does appear Malik Monk and LaMelo Ball are at least close to returning, which should give the Hornets a bit of an emotional boost as they continue to push forward. Note that Charlotte checks in 16-7 ATS after losing two of its last three games this season and owns a 31-17 ATS mark following consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons. There are plenty of trends supporting the Pistons here, and that certainly factors into the relatively short pointspread. But the fact is, Detroit has now dropped three of its last four games ATS with its lone victory over that stretch coming against a banged-up Hawks squad that was in letdown mode following a home upset win over the Bucks two nights earlier. Take Charlotte (10*). |
|||||||
04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies -10.5 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Grizzlies returned home from a long, successful road trip that ended with a thud (a blowout loss in Denver) and couldn't regain their footing in a blowout loss at the hands of the Blazers, who were in a quick revenge spot, two nights ago. Here, I expect Memphis to fare much better as it draws a favorable matchup against the lowly Magic. Orlando is actually coming off a rare win but that came against the Cavs. The Magic have now won consecutive games ATS but I think that's about as much as we can expect from this team that's simply playing out the string at this point. Orlando certainly isn't looking to force the issue down the stretch, taking a cautious approach with both Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross, who are nursing minor injuries but likely to sit again on Friday. The Grizzlies were actually favored against the Blazers two nights ago but probably shouldn't have been (hindsight is 20/20 of course) as they were playing on just one day of rest following an extremely difficult seven-game road trip. We should see the Grizz come out with much fresher legs tonight and that should result in a far better shooting performance after they were held to 42% shooting against Portland. The Magic held the Cavs to 40.2% shooting last time out but check in allowing 118.8 points per game when playing in a game with a posted total 220 points or higher, as is the case here. The Grizzlies have shown the ability to tighten things up following a bad loss, allowing just 107.9 points per game after a double-digit home loss over the last two seasons. They should be able to get loose in this one against a Magic squad that prior to their last game had allowed five of their last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three consecutive opponents shoot 54% or better. The Magic took the most recent meeting in this series but that was last March. We haven't got a real picture of just how wide the gap has grown between these two squads here in 2021 but we should see it in the front half of this home-and-home series on Friday night. Take Memphis (10*). |
|||||||
04-30-21 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Division Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the insurance run with what I consider to be the superior team in this matchup (for now at least) as the Twins continue to deal with some key absences early in the season and struggle to find their footing. Brady Singer will take the ball for Kansas City. He's made some nice progress over his rookie campaign, which was impressive in its own right. Singer has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance this season, recording a 33.9% hard-hit ball percentage while also posting a ground ball percentage a shade over 55% after recording a 53.7% in that department last season. His walks are down while his strikeouts are up compared to last year and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .210 batting average. Michael Pineda is off to an up and down start to the campaign and draws a tough Royals lineup here. Pineda has once again had a tough time keeping the ball down, leading to a 32.3% fly ball percentage and a 4.6% home run percentage in the early going this season. He has held opposing hitters to a .193 batting average but we can certainly anticipate some regression to the mean in that department as he owns a career .248 opponents BA, not posting a number lower than that since way back in 2014. With a 43.5% hard-hit ball percentage and an exit velocity off opposing bats nearly 90 mph, look for the Royals to enjoy a solid night at the plate and keep this one within arm's reach at the very least. Take Kansas City +1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
04-29-21 | Pelicans -9 v. Thunder | Top | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans may appear to be in a tough situation on paper as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a two-point loss in Denver last night. However, they're actually in the same three-in-four situation as the Thunder and catch Oklahoma City in a letdown spot off an upset win in Boston two nights ago - the team's first victory since back on March 31st against the Raptors. In order to secure that win, the Thunder needed to shoot better than 48% from the field - their best shooting performance since April 10th against the 76ers (a game they lost by 24 points). Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is averaging just 106.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting here at home this season. Playing at a much quicker pace lately they can certainly turn this into a track meet but that should only serve to stretch out the margin. The Pelicans are bringing the proper level of intensity to the floor every night, having shot 47.1% or better from the field in five straight games, shooting north of 53% in three of those contests. Last night's game ended a streak of three straight contests holding their opposition to 43.6% shooting or worse. Note that the Pelicans check in ranked eighth in the league in opponents effective field goal percentage over their last three games. They rank tops in the league in floor percentage this season. Oklahoma City hasn't fared well as a home underdog this season, going 9-20 ATS, outscored by 12 points on average. They're also 3-11 ATS the last 14 times they've come off a non-conference game, outscored by an average margin of 15.9 points, and that's exacerbated further by the fact that they're in for an obvious letdown off the win over what seemed to be a disinterested Celtics team. This wouldn't appear to be an easy game for the Pelicans to get up for until you realize that Oklahoma City took the last meeting in this series by a single point as an eight-point underdog in New Orleans back on January 6th. The Pelicans may have overlooked the Thunder in that one after they took the first meeting here on this floor by 33 points on December 31st. Take New Orleans (10*). |
|||||||
04-29-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Boston at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Two clubs heading in opposite directions will meet on Thursday night in Texas as the Red Sox travel from New York to face the Rangers, who just wrapped up a series with the division-rival Angels. Boston enters riding a three-game winning streak thanks to some outstanding pitching. Here, I'm not sure they'll get such a positive performance from former Ranger Martin Perez. Opponents are hitting .290 against Perez this season, bumping his career opponents batting average all the way up to .283 - 31 points higher than the MLB average. His walk rate is up again after a miserable 2020 campaign in that department, while his strikeout rate remains well below the MLB average. He has always done a fairly good job of keeping opposing hitters off balance and limiting his hard-hit ball percentage but his ability to induce ground balls has dropped off considerably in recent years. So far this season he has recorded a 38.2% ground ball percentage - nearly 6% lower than the MLB average. Kyle Gibson will counter for Texas. He's enjoying a resurgence of sorts, building off an encouraging spring to post a 2.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through his first five regular season outings. Gibson has always been a good ground ball pitcher and he's on track for another solid year in that department having recorded a 53.2% ground ball percentage through 27 1/3 innings of work. Gibson's fly ball percentage is all the way down south of 14% so it's no surprise that he's yet to allow a home run this season. Also note that Gibson's strikeouts are up and his walks are down compared to last season and he's held opponents to a .235 collective batting average. While he won't be able to keep it up forever, I do like his chances of keeping the Rangers in the game in a bounce-back spot here tonight. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
04-25-21 | Cavs v. Wizards -9.5 | Top | 110-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Wizards are absolutely rolling right now, taking full advantage of a favorable schedule to reel off seven straight wins, going 6-0-1 ATS along the way. I expect them to keep it rolling against the lowly, undermanned Cavs on Sunday. Cleveland was already in for a bit of a letdown after shooting better than 51% in each of its last two games, but now will be without its top offensive threat in Collin Sexton due to a concussion. While I'm a fan of Darius Garland, the budding star isn't capable of shouldering the entire load with a poor supporting cast around him. Keep in mind, the Cavs were already without Taurean Prince, who had been giving them solid minutes and offensive production before going down to injury last week. The Wizards certainly haven't been playing down to the level of competition lately, delivering blowout wins against the Kings, Pistons and Thunder (twice) during their current winning streak. Note that the Wizards are an excellent positive momentum play having gone 8-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win this season. Meanwhile, the Cavs are a miserable 9-19 ATS as a road underdog this season, outscored by an average margin of 10.9 points. Washington is absolutely locked in defensively right now, having held its last five opponents to 43.4% or worse shooting - an incredible stretch of defensive dominance by today's NBA standards. This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season after the Cavs took a 113-108 decision against a much different Wizards squad here in Washington last February. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
04-24-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
National League Run-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Marlins have had a tough time through the first two games here in San Francisco, only making things look close thanks to a two-out ninth inning error followed by a two-run home run to close the gap to 5-3. Here, I do like Miami in what figures to be a close affair. Pablo Lopez will take the ball for the Marlins. He was solid last season and has picked up right where he left off here in 2021. Through 21 2/3 innings of work, Lopez has recorded a 37.3% hard-hit ball percentage and an 84.6 mph exit velocity off opposing bats, noting that the MLB average in those departments is 39.2% and 88.7 mph. He's done a terrific job of staying out of danger throughout his career thanks to a 49.0% ground ball percentage and he checks in 47.5% in that category so far this season. His career fly ball percentage is nearly 5% lower than the MLB average. It's also encouraging to see Lopez's strikeout rate climb in each of his last three big league seasons. Kevin Gausman is pitching with a bit of pressure off a solid 2020 campaign as the Giants are paying him $18.9M this season. He's been solid in the early going this season but there is some reason for concern. Gausman's strikeouts are down and his walks are up while he's also recorded a 38.6% fly ball percentage. Opponents are hitting just .185 against him but we're bound to see some regression to the mean in that regard as he owns a career .263 opponents batting average. Rather than back the Marlins outright here, we'll grab the insurance run in what projects as another low-scoring affair in San Francisco. Take Miami +1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
04-23-21 | Nuggets -2 v. Warriors | Top | 97-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Most were quick to write off the Nuggets after they lost Jamal Murray for the season to a torn ACL, interestingly enough in a game right here in San Francisco against the Warriors earlier this month. Instead of hanging their heads, the Nuggets have reeled off four straight victories with Nikola Jokic leading the way in his MVP-worthy campaign. While Denver has gone 0-8 ATS when on the road revenging a loss against an opponent this season, I think this one is a little different. The Nuggets certainly haven't forgotten that 116-107 loss here on April 12th and I'm confident they'll make amends for it with the Warriors in a tough spot, returning home following an eastern road trip that saw them start strong but finish poorly, blowing a fourth quarter lead in an eventual loss to the Wizards two nights ago. Here, Golden State will be playing its seventh game in the last 12 nights, in six different cities. It very much looked like a team that was running out of gas in Washington, shooting worse than 40% from the field against a below-average Wizards defense. The Nuggets will be playing their sixth game in the last 12 nights, but in just four different cities. They're set up well here, noting they've gone 21-9 ATS after losing at least two games in a row ATS over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 10.2 points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Warriors have gone a miserable 1-10 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 11.1 points in that spot. The Nuggets are locked in at both ends of the floor right now, having outrebounded each of their last five opponents while holding eight straight opponents to worse than 50% shooting, a strong defensive run by today's NBA standards. Denver checks in ranked fourth in the league in floor percentage over its last four games while Golden State sits bottom-six in that category over the same stretch. The Nuggets are also top-five in extra scoring chances per game over their last three contests while the Warriors rank 29th. You get the picture. Take Denver (10*). |
|||||||
04-22-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
MLB American League Run-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Mariners head east following a 1-0 loss to the Dodgers two days ago to face a Red Sox club that's fresh off a two-game split against the division rival Blue Jays. I like the way this one sets up for Seattle as it sends Justin Dunn to the mound against Nick Pivetta. Dunn has been a bit of an enigma for the M's during the early stages of his big league career. Command has certainly been an issue as Dunn has recorded an ugly 18.5% walk percentage in 62 innings of work. However, there is reason for optimism as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .168 batting average. We've also seen him improve on his strikeout percentage this season, averaging 8.4 K's per nine innings. Note that the Mariners own a terrific 6-1 record with Dunn on the mound as a road underdog over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs per game in that situation. Nick Pivetta was cast away after a brutal start with the Phillies last season. He was fine in a couple of appearances with the Red Sox last season but now we're seeing the same issues creep up again in the early going here in 2021. Pivetta has recorded a 45.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats so far this season - both well north of the MLB average. He has also posted a 32.5% line drive percentage and 27.5% fly ball percentage to go along with a poor 30.0% ground ball percentage - again, all worse than the MLB average. His walks are up and his strikeouts are down so far this season. The only thing that has helped him save face has been the fact that he's kept the ball in the park for the most part, but it should only be a matter of time before that changes, noting that he owns a career 4.0% home run percentage compared to the MLB average of 3.3%. For his career, opponents are hitting a lofty .272 against him - 22 points higher than the MLB average. Noting that the Mariners have gone a perfect 11-0 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line over their last 11 games, we'll grab the insurance run again here with the price warranting such a play. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
04-21-21 | Suns -1 v. 76ers | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I really wanted to back the 76ers in this game but the more I look into the matchup, the more I like the Suns. Of course, what was originally keeping me from getting behind Philadelphia was its injury/illness concerns with Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons questionable to play. While it is likely at least one of the two will be good to go for this one, I'm still not sure it will be enough, and question how much they would really contribute here. The Suns are in an obvious letdown spot off the overtime win over the Bucks in Milwaukee two nights ago, but letdowns have been few and far between for this team this season, particularly on the road where they check in 18-7, outscoring opponents by 4.0 points per game. The Suns are a terrific positive momentum play, having gone 17-5 ATS on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. They're also an incredible 21-5 ATS after winning two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.0 points per game in that spot. The 76ers are quite simply out of rhythm right now, barely getting by an undermanned Clippers squad last Friday night before falling to the Warriors in a 107-96 decision on Monday. They shot a miserable 42.2% and 39.3% in those two games, respectively. We've seen the Sixers fall in a number of step-up spots here at home in recent weeks. While they check in 22-6 SU at Wells Fargo Arena this season, half of those losses have come since March 17th. Phoenix has taken each of the last two meetings in this series, including a 120-111 win at home back on February 13th. Take Phoenix (10*). |
|||||||
04-19-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 137-139 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Memphis at 9:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the Grizzlies in their outright underdog victory in Milwaukee on Saturday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade them here as they head to Denver in what I consider a throw-away game. Note that Memphis has now won three of its last four games SU and four in a row ATS but will be without Jonas Valanciunas due to a concussion on Monday and could also be missing Dillon Brooks, among others. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Grizz as they still have four games left on their current road trip, with a four-game in six-night stretch on deck. Meanwhile, the Nuggets lost Jamal Murray for the season with a torn ACL last week but proceeded to reel off consecutive wins in blowout fashion over the Heat and Rockets. While Memphis is playing its fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities, this will be just the Nuggets third game in the last six nights, with two of those contests coming here at home. Denver checks in 18-10 at Ball Arena this season, outscoring opponents by six points per game. The Nuggets have taken consecutive meetings in this series in Denver, going 1-0-1 ATS along the way. Take Denver (10*). |
|||||||
04-17-21 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 128-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Grizzlies will have revenge on their minds after they suffered a heart-breaking last-second loss against the Bucks on their home floor back on March 4th and I like their chances of taking Milwaukee down to the wire again here. While the Bucks are back home following a three-game road trip (in which they went a perfect 3-0) and had an off day yesterday, this is still a tough scheduling spot as this will be their 11th game since March 29th, in nine different cities no less. The Grizzlies are in a back-to-back spot, making the short trip from Chicago, but had the benefit of a three-game homestand prior to that. Of course, Memphis has been playing excellent basketball, having gone 13-3 ATS over its last 16 games. The Grizzlies have certainly been a streaky team and set up well here given their 14-5 ATS mark after winning consecutive games ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 3.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks check in just 21-33 ATS when coming off three more more consecutive victories over the last two seasons. I'll also point out that the Grizzlies have been outscored by an average margin of just 0.5 points when coming off a game in which they gave up 115 points or more, as is the case here off last night's 126-115 win in Chicago. Memphis has certainly held its own against the Bucks, going 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings, including an outright victory in its last trip to Milwaukee. Take Memphis (10*). |
|||||||
04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Some will be expecting a letdown from the 76ers here as they come off Wednesday's wire-to-wire win over the Nets but I don't see it happening. Perhaps that game wasn't quite as big as it could have been as Brooklyn didn't have the services of two-thirds of its 'big three', Kevin Durant and James Harden. Here, the Sixers host another elite opponent but do so knowing they've taken each of the last two meetings in this series in Philadelphia, but also with revenge on their minds following a 10-point loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles back on March 27th. The Clippers have already locked up a winning three-game road trip thanks to victories in Indiana and Detroit. Now they're in a tough spot, playing their fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities, with another three-in-four spot up next beginning Sunday at home against Minnesota. It's still unknown whether the Clips will have Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup for Friday night's game. I would lean toward him playing but still like the 76ers in that situation. Note that Philadelphia is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games as a home favorite of six points or less, outscoring the opposition by 12.3 points on average in that spot. The 76ers are also 21-9 ATS when playing at home following an ATS loss, as is the case here after Wednesday's win but non-cover against the undermanned Nets, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game in that situation. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
|||||||
04-15-21 | Devils +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NHL East Division Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on New Jersey +1.5 goals over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers have posted some big wins lately that give off the impression that they're playing better than they actually are. The fact is, New York hasn't won consecutive games since March 30th and April 1st. New Jersey has somewhat surprisingly been a much better team on the road than at home this season, posting a 10-8 record in enemy territory while averaging 3.1 goals per game. Here, the Devils are set up well having gone a perfect 4-0 when playing on the road off three straight home losses, outscoring opponents by a whopping 2.8 goals per game in that situation (yes, I know, small sample size). We've also seen the Devils go 7-2 when playing on the road after being held to two goals or less in their last two games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals per game in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rangers are a woeful 2-9 when coming off a win by three goals or more this season, outscored by 1.0 goal per game in that spot. They're 0-8 the last eight times they've come off a shutout victory, as is the case here, allowing 3.9 goals per game while being outscored by an average margin of two goals in that spot. The Devils have certainly held their own in this series at MSG in recent years, splitting the last six meetings, including taking both matchups in Manhattan this season. Take New Jersey +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
04-14-21 | Mavs -2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 114-113 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Memphis at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs are coming off consecutive home losses against the Spurs and 76ers with the latter coming in embarrassing form in a lifeless effort two nights ago (in front of a national audience on ESPN, no less). It shouldn't be difficult for the Mavs to get back up for this one-game road trip to Memphis on Wednesday and they're set up well to get back in the win column. Note that Dallas is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as a road favorite of six points or less, outscoring the opposition by 9.2 points per game in that situation. The Mavs are also a solid 39-25 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.3 points per game in that spot. The Grizzlies check in averaging just 106.2 points per game when playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS this season and should have hard time keeping up with the a Mavs squad that has inexplicably been better both offensively and defensively on the road compared to at home this season. Note that Dallas averages 118 points per game when playing on the road off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Dallas took the first meeting in this series this season by 10 points back on February 22nd and has won two of its last three trips to Memphis, both SU and ATS. Take Dallas (10*). |
|||||||
04-13-21 | Celtics v. Blazers -1 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Boston at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers should be in a foul mood when they take the court on Tuesday night after suffering a disappointing 107-98 loss at home against the defensive-minded Heat on Sunday. While the Blazers have certainly been scuffing their heels lately, dropping three of their last four games overall, I'm confident we'll see them bounce back against the resurgent Celtics on Tuesday. Note that Portland has outscored the opposition by 5.3 points per game when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Celtics have averaged just 105.4 points per game and have been outscored by 2.4 points per contest when coming off a win by 15 points or more this season, as is the case here. Boston delivered that blowout win on Sunday, rallying against what appeared to be a very disinterested Nuggets squad (Denver scored just eight fourth quarter points in the loss). Portland couldn't have played much worse, particularly at the offensive end of the floor, against the Heat on Sunday. I don't think the Blazers will have any trouble getting up for this nationally-televised game at home before heading on the road for a two-game trip to San Antonio and Charlotte. Portland has lost a number of games against marquee opponents here at home lately and I think that's why this line is as short as it is. Thi sis a 'put up or shut up' game of sorts and I'm confident we'll see Damian Lillard take charge and lead the Blazers to a strong bounce-back performance. Take Portland (10*). |
|||||||
04-12-21 | Jets v. Senators +1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Ottawa +1.5 goals over Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Jets are rolling right now, winners of three games in a row including a two-game sweep in Montreal which culminated with a 5-0 victory on Saturday night. While Winnipeg has owned this series, taking five of six meetings so far this season, the Senators have been right here with the Jets in the last two matchups, winning 2-1 here in Ottawa on February 13th before dropping a 4-3 decision in Winnipeg on April 5th. The Jets are set up poorly here, noting that they've gone just 17-26 after allowing one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.3 goals per game in that situation. They've also posted an ugly 3-12 record and average just 2.1 goals per game after scoring three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Sens have somewhat surprisingly gone 5-1 after allowing six goals or more over the last two seasons, averaging 3.8 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that situation which presents itself here after Saturday's wild 6-5 loss in Toronto (we won with the 'over' in that game). Also note that the Sens give up just 2.3 goals per game playing at home after losing five or six of their last seven games this season. Expect a tightly-contested affair on Monday night in Ottawa. Take Ottawa +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
04-09-21 | Rockets +12 v. Clippers | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is a 'name your score' type of game for the Clippers but as we know from recent history, they don't always fare that well in that type of situation. We cashed the Magic in an outright underdog victory in a similar spot on March 30th. On that night, the Clippers were also playing the second of back-to-backs and also coming off consecutive games in which they shot 50% or better from the field. Here, we find Los Angeles coming off a victory over the Suns last night (we won with the 'under') - their third consecutive SU and ATS win. Note that the Clips have allowed 116.7 points per game when playing at home off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by just 1.8 points per game in that situation. They've also gone just 8-21 ATS the last 29 times they've played at home off three consecutive home victories, outscoring opponents by just 1.6 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rockets have actually been playing some competitive basketball lately, going 4-3 ATS over their last seven contests, including an upset win over the Mavericks two nights ago - a game in which Dallas did put forth a quality effort with a full roster and no limits on minutes even though it was the front half of a back-to-back. The Rockets won't have John Wall on Friday night after he poured in 31 points on Wednesday but they also didn't have him two games back when they gave the Suns all they could handle in a narrow 133-130 loss. As bad as the Rockets have been at times this season, they've still only been outscored by 5.5 points per game on the road. I'm not sure how interested the Clippers will be in laying a beatdown here while Houston has shown that it hasn't quit on the season despite its miserable record. Take Houston (10*). |
|||||||
04-09-21 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +2 | Top | 129-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Memphis at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Knicks are in a bit of a lull right now, having lost five of their last six games but it's worth noting that four of those five games were played on the road and three of those losses almost certainly could have gone either way. While this looks like an awfully tough matchup on paper with the Grizzlies coming in off four straight victories, including a perfect 3-0 start to this current road trip, I expect New York to be up for the challenge. Note that the Grizz have caught a couple of favorable situations on this trip with the 76ers sitting Joel Embiid last Sunday and the Hawks missing a number of key cogs on Wednesday. After shooting a blistering 54.8% and 53.9% over their last two games, I'm certainly anticipating some offensive regression from the Grizzlies here, as they face a Knicks squad that allows just 104.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home this season. Note that New York is 10-1 ATS at home with the line set between +3 and -3 this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.9 points in those contests. Also note that the Knicks have outscored opponents by 3.7 points per game following a loss by six points or less this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Grizz have been outscored by 2.5 points per game when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons. Take New York (10*). |
|||||||
04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga -4 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over Baylor at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Gonzaga's thrilling semi-final victory over UCLA on Saturday. Here, I'll switch gears and look at the side as we back the Bulldogs in their final showdown with Baylor. I hesitate to say that the Zags merely survived Saturday's buzzer-beating win over UCLA. You could certainly make the case that both teams deserved the win on that night - the Zags were simply able to make one more shot than the Bruins. With that being said, I give a ton of credit to UCLA. It shot an exceptional 57.6% from the field, knocking down incredibly tough shots all night long. Keep in mind, that was only the third time all season that Gonzaga allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field. In two previous occurrences, the Bulldogs followed it up with an ATS victory, holding Auburn to 37.3% shooting in a 23-point rout on November 27th and limiting Creighton to 40.6% shooting in an 18-point victory earlier in this tournament. Considering the Bruins shot so well, and also held a 32-26 rebounding edge, the Zags should be incredibly pleased with the fact that they were able to come away victorious on Saturday. Here, I certainly don't expect Baylor to shoot nearly as well, nor do I expect the Zags to lose the rebounding battle (note they hadn't been outrebounded in a game since February 27th prior to Saturday's contest). Note that the Zags entered this tournament ranked 11th in the nation in total rebounding percentage and 13th in opponents floor percentage. By contrast, Baylor checked in ranked 44th in both of those categories. For Baylor's part, it shot an impressive 52.7% from the field in Saturday's blowout win over Houston. The Cougars were quite simply overmatched from the start in that game as the Bears jumped ahead early and never looked back. Now I question whether Baylor can get right back up to the necessary level of intensity to stage the upset against Gonzaga. Note that Saturday's game marked the first time in six games that the Bears shot better than 50% from the field. It was also the first time they outrebounded an opponent since a lopsided victory over Hartford in the opening round of this tournament. We know that Gonzaga prefers to play at a fast pace, entering the tournament ranked 16th nationally in possessions per game. Also note that the Zags have gone 28-14 ATS with the total set in the 150's over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 26.1 points. Take Gonzaga (10*). |
|||||||
04-03-21 | Mavs v. Wizards +6 | Top | 109-87 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Dallas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I thankfully laid off my potential fade of the Mavs last night as they ended up defeating the Knicks by double-digits in New York. Here, I will go to the well with a fade of streaking Dallas, however, as it might struggle to find the proper level of motivation to draw on in the final installment of what has been a successful five-game road trip. The Mavs lone loss on the trip came one week ago tonight in New Orleans in a game where they sat both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. While I certainly expect both to play here, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that Luka at the very least could be given another night off in this back-to-back situation - but we'll operate under the assumption that he does play. The Wizards didn't show up to play in Thursday's 29-point blowout loss in Detroit. You really do have to pick your spots wisely when it comes to the Wiz, but when they do show up motivated, you can generally count on a competitive game and I do expect them to step up here at home against the Mavs. Note that as poorly as things have gone in general for the Wiz in recent years, they've actually been outscored by just 0.2 points per game in their last 96 games played here at home. Meanwhile, the Mavs have outscored opponents by an average margin of just 1.3 points when coming off a win over the last two seasons and here they check in off three consecutive victories. Washington is in a favorable situation here as it has gone 19-9 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS over the last two seasons, actually outscoring the opposition by 0.3 points per game in that spot. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
04-02-21 | Bulls +12.5 v. Jazz | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Bulls here, even with the assumption that Zach LaVine won't be in the lineup. Chicago fell just short in Phoenix two nights ago as Devin Booker absolutely went off in a five-point Suns victory. Now at the tail-end of this four-game road trip, Chicago will be looking to at least salvage some positive momentum before returning home. Of course, that's a tall task against the league-leading Jazz. However, this has been a bit of an emotionally-draining week for Utah after its plane headed for Memphis was forced to make an emergency landing after hitting a flock of birds shortly after taking off. Donovan Mitchell was particularly shaken up following the experience and didn't make the trip to Memphis. Utah ended up getting past the Grizzlies by four points in a game where we won with the 'under'. The Bulls are in a good spot here, noting that they've gone an incredible 20-5 ATS when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. They're also 10-2 ATS when playing on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game this season, outscoring opponents by 5.5 points per game in that spot. There's really not much negative we can say about the Jazz as they've been dominant this season. I simply feel this is a spot where they're simply looking to keep their winning streak intact rather than win by margin. Take Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
03-31-21 | Blazers v. Pistons +7 | Top | 124-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. After an extended stay in Florida - a successful one at that - I think this might be a tough game for the Blazers to get up for on Wednesday night as they look to wrap up a perfect 4-0 eastern road swing. Portland has been a solid road team all season, going 14-9 SU and ATS, however it's been a dead heat in terms of scoring averages as it puts up 115.7 points per game while giving up, you guessed it, 115.7 points per game away from home. Also note that the Blazers have been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points per game after winning four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons. They've also been outscored by 2.9 points per game on average when coming off an ATS win over the last two seasons. For their part, the Pistons have been a solid spread team at home this season, going 12-9 ATS, outscored by just 1.5 points per game on average. They check into tonight's game having gone a profitable 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games overall. Note that Detroit owns a stellar 17-7 ATS mark after losing four of its last five games this season, as is the case here, actually outscoring the opposition by 0.4 points per game in that situation. With Portland looking forward to getting back home to host Giannis and the Bucks on Friday, look for the Pistons to keep this one competitive on Wednesday. Take Detroit (10*). |
|||||||
03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga -8 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over USC at 7:15 pm et on Tuesday. Credit USC for reaching the Elite Eight on the strength of some truly incredible shooting performances over the last couple of games. The Trojans shot better than 57% against both Kansas and Oregon and enter tonight's contest having shot 50% or better in four straight games going back to the Pac-12 Tournament earlier this month. Keep in mind, only once previously this season did the Trojans shoot better than 50% from the field in three consecutive games, and that took place right out of the gates in a stretch that saw them face the likes of Cal Baptist and Montana (along with a solid BYU squad). While USC has enjoyed an incredible run, I expect it to run out of magic here, and it's certainly worth noting that the Trojans have gone 0-7 ATS in their seven straight-up losses this season, losing four of those games by nine points or more. What more can be said about Gonzaga? They were the heavily favored to win this tournament at the outset for a reason and have only gotten better with each passing game. While the Bulldogs have shot better than 55% from the field in two of their three tournament games to date, that's only par for the course really, noting that their Round of 32 win over Oklahoma marked the first time since January 23rd that they shot worse than 50%. The Zags are tops in the nation in both offensive efficiency and floor percentage and play at a pace that should make the Trojans uncomfortable, noting that USC entered the tourney ranked north of 200 in terms of possessions per game. I don't expect USC to afford itself enough extra scoring opportunities to keep pace here, noting that it entered the tournament ranked 311th in steals per possessions, 123rd in turnovers per possession and 98th in extra scoring chances per game. By contrast, Gonzaga ranked 41st, 36th and 32nd in those three categories, respectively. Take Gonzaga (10*). |
|||||||
03-29-21 | Pacers v. Wizards +5 | Top | 124-132 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We saw this line open a little higher than expected with Bradley Beal questionable to play after exiting with a hip injury on Saturday. I would operate under the assumption that Beal won't play on Monday - should he be able to go that will serve as an added bonus. I like the spot for the Wizards regardless. There's no question this is a tough spot for the Pacers to get up for as they look ahead to a pair of much tougher home games against the Heat and Hornets later this week. Washington is coming off a 14-point rout of Detroit on Saturday night, shooting better than 46% from the field for a seventh consecutive game while holding the opposition to under 39% shooting for the second straight contest. While Washington is thought of as an Eastern Conference doormat, it has held its own here at home this season, going 11-12 ATS while being outscored by less than four points per game. The Pacers are outscoring opponents by just 0.6 points per game on the road this season. Indiana checks in off consecutive victories over the Pistons and Mavs but it's certainly worth noting that Dallas was without Luka Doncic in the latter contest. The Pacers check into a miserable spot here having gone a woeful 1-11 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games this season, outscored by six points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Wizards average an impressive 122.9 points per game playing at home off an ATS win this season, outscored by just 0.9 points on average in that spot. The Pacers are averaging 113 points per game overall this season but that average drops to 108.1 ppg when coming off a win over the last three seasons. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech +1 | Top | 84-62 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Mississippi State at 3 pm et on Saturday. Most bettors will likely back Mississippi State by default at virtually a pk'em price in this one as it comes from a power conference in the SEC while Louisiana Tech is out of the far less respected C-USA. I like the Bulldogs' (La. Tech) chances of staging the minor upset, however, as they come in playing some of their best basketball of the season and match up well here. It's worth noting that Louisiana Tech ranks an impressive eighth in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 11th in opponents effective field goal percentage this season. While Mississippi State has the better offense, I do think that Louisiana Tech, which comes in having scored 70+ points in six of its last seven games, can hang. Note that Mississippi State ranks just 161st in the country in steals per possession and conversely, ranks a miserable 319th in turnovers per possession on offense. With Mississippi State ranking 248th in the country in possessions per game, it isn't going to overwhelm Louisiana Tech with its pace here either. Louisiana State checks in as a positive momentum play having gone 10-1 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games this season, outscoring opponents by 14.6 points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, Mississippi State is just 1-9 ATS following a close victory by six points or less over the last two seasons, outscored by 5.1 points per game in that spot. Take Louisiana Tech (10*). |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Oregon State v. Loyola-Chicago -6.5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago minus the points over Oregon State at 2:40 pm et on Saturday. We won one of our big ticket plays backing Oregon State in its win over Oklahoma State last round but I won't hesitate to switch gears and go against the Beavers here as they go up against Loyola-Chicago in the Sweet 16. The Ramblers are by no means a 'Cinderella' team. They've turned in a tremendous season so far, winning 26 of 30 games, leaning on their wealth of talent and experience to reach the Sweet 16, even if few gave them a chance against Illinois last Sunday. This is a team that is certainly comfortable being in the 'favorite' role, having been the front-runner in the Missouri Valley Conference for much of the season. If any team is going to suffer a letdown here, it's not going to be the Ramblers off the upset win over one-seed Illinois, instead I feel that Oregon State might have a tough time getting its emotions running as high as it did against 'name' programs like Tennessee and Oklahoma State in the first two rounds of this tournament. The Beavers are undoubtedly deserving of respect as they've gotten hot at the right time, parlaying a Pac-12 Tournament championship run into two victories here in the NCAA Tournament. However, let's not lose sight of the fact that this is a team that entered the tourney ranked 274th in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 190th in opponents effective field goal percentage, not to mention its dreadful 298th ranking in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Like Loyola-Chicago, Oregon State plays at a slow pace, ranking 316th in the country in possessions per game. But the Ramblers do it much better, entering the tournament ranked 26th in the country in offensive efficiency and 25th in floor percentage. By contrast, the Beavers sat outside of the top-100 in both of those categories. The Pac-12 is being given plenty of respect now with four teams reaching the Sweet 16. However, noting that Loyola-Chicago has gone 10-3 ATS when playing away from home off three or more consecutive wins this season, outscoring the opposition by 13.1 points on average, while also going 15-4 ATS off a double-digit victory, outscoring opponents by 16.8 points per game in that situation, I'll gladly back the Ramblers laying a relatively short number here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
03-26-21 | Nets -5.5 v. Pistons | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We've made a habit of fading the Nets over the last week or so, cashing tickets against them with the underdog Magic last Friday night and the favored Jazz in what turned out to be a monster blowout on Wednesday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the Nets as they stay on the road to face the Pistons in Detroit on Friday. Brooklyn obviously has injury concerns but I would expect it to have James Harden back on the floor for Friday's game. According to head coach Steve Nash it sounded like Harden could have played on Wednesday in Utah but the team essentially treated that as a throw-away game on the second of back-to-back nights off a win in Portland on Tuesday. The Pistons check in off an ATS win in Indiana on Wednesday but that sets them up poorly here, noting they've gone 17-31 ATS off an ATS victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 6.5 points per game in that situation. Having dropped their last meeting with the Nets after staging an upset in their first matchup, I'll point out that they're 26-41 ATS when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.2 points in those contests. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
|||||||
03-22-21 | Abilene Christian +5 v. UCLA | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
CBB East Region Game of the Year. My selection is on Abilene Christian plus the points over UCLA at 5:15 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with Abilene Christian as it continue on a Cinderella run here in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats shot a miserable sub-30% from the field in their opener against Texas but still managed to stage the upset thanks to an incredible defensive effort. That shouldn't have come as a big surprise as Abilene Christian has terrific at that end of the floor all season, entering the tournament ranked sixth in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 13th in opponents effective field goal percentage. That's not to mention the fact that the Wildcats are capable of ratcheting up the pressure, ranking third in the country in steals per possession. I'm not overly concerned by their awful shooting performance against Texas. Keep in mind, ACU entered the tourney ranked a respectable 67th in offensive efficiency and 55th in floor percentage, not to mention sixth in the country in extra scoring chances per game. I feel their up-tempo style could give UCLA some problems here, noting that ACU ranks 97th in possessions per game compared to the Bruins', who entered the tourney 288th. UCLA rode the hot hand of Johnny Juzang in its 'upset' win over BYU in the opening round. Juzang had been dealing with injuries and I do question what happens if he doesn't shoot the lights out again here. While ACU has had some issues taking care of the basketball this season, UCLA is unlikely to take advantage, ranking 299th in the country in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage entering this tourney. The Bruins have really been nothing special defensively either, ranking 156th in opponents floor percentage and 201st in opponents effective field goal percentage. Finally, I'll point to the fact that UCLA has gone just 3-11 ATS away from home after winning two of its last three games over the last three seasons, outscored by a whopping 11 points per game in that situation. Take Abilene Christian (10*). |
|||||||
03-21-21 | Oregon State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Oklahoma State at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. Oklahoma State held on for the cover against Liberty in its NCAA Tournament opener on Friday but I expect the Cowboys will be in for a tough challenge against red hot Oregon State on Sunday. The Beavers got hot at exactly the right time, improbably winning the Pac-12 Tournament last week before dominating a good Tennessee team in their opening round matchup on Friday. I like the matchup here as well. Oklahoma State has outscored the opposition by just 1.8 points per game after winning four of its last five games this season. In 14 situations where it has won five or six of its last seven games this season it has outscored opponents by just 0.5 points per game. While Oregon State is considered an upstart, it has actually posted a winning record away from home this season, allowing just 66.7 points per game. Albeit against a tougher schedule, Oklahoma State has allowed 72.9 ppg away from home this season. Note that entering this tournament, the Cowboys ranked just 135th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 79th in floor percentage while also ranking 270th in extra scoring chances per game. By contrast, Oregon State entered the tourney ranked 88th in extra scoring chances per game. Take Oregon State (10*). |
|||||||
03-21-21 | Bulls -3 v. Pistons | Top | 100-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. This is a fine bounce-back spot for the Nuggets after suffering consecutive losses against the Spurs and Nuggets. Both of those losses could have gone either way and there's certainly no reason for Chicago to hang its head following a four-point setback in Denver. Somewhat surprisingly, the Bulls are actually a better team on the road than at home this season, posting a 9-8 record and outscoring the opposition by 2.6 points per game. Note that Chicago is a stellar 14-2 ATS on the road after posting three wins in its last four games ATS over the last three seasons. As we've noted before, the Pistons are not a good revenge team, having gone 25-40 ATS revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points in that situation. They're also a miserable 3-13 ATS after posting consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here, outscored by 9.3 ppg in that spot. It's certainly worth mentioning that Detroit's last two wins came against a reeling Raptors squad and a dreadful Houston team. Take Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
03-20-21 | Spurs v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 113-120 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over San Antonio at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Spurs guaranteed themselves a winning road trip with last night's 116-110 win in Cleveland. I can certainly see a scenario unfolding where they have a tough time keeping within arm's reach against a much better rested Bucks squad here on Saturday. For San Antonio, this will be its fifth game in the last seven nights (in five different cities). In fact, it will be the Spurs seventh game in seven different cities since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Bucks are home off two days' rest and this will mark just their fourth game in the last eight days and only their fifth since the All-Star break (in only three different cities). Note that Milwaukee has gone 28-15 ATS returning home following an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 14.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been outscored by 7.2 points per game on average as a road underdog over the last three seasons, and this is by no means a favorable situation (for the reasons noted above). Take Milwaukee (10*). |
|||||||
03-20-21 | Texas Southern v. Michigan -25 | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Texas Southern at 3 pm et on Saturday. I expect to see Michigan lay waste to Texas Southern on Saturday afternoon. Of course, credit the Tigers for advancing past Mount St. Mary's in come-from-behind fashion in their First Four matchup on Thursday, but they're likely to get drummed in this one. Note that Texas Southern ranks just 209th in the nation in offensive efficiency and a miserable 277th in turnovers per possession. While we didn't see it on Thursday, the Tigers generally look to push the pace but that will likely backfire against the Wolverines here. Michigan of course has a sour taste in its mouth after failing to reach the final in the Big Ten Tournament last weekend. The Wolverines check into this game ranked 17th in offensive efficiency, 21st in floor percentage, 24th in total rebounding percentage, eighth in opponents effective field goal percentage and third in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage - you get the picture. Texas Southern regularly got torched during its non-conference schedule, allowing 80+ points against Oklahoma State, St. Mary's-CA, Auburn and BYU. Here, unless the Wolverines completely look past the Tigers, they should be able to approach 90 while I don't see Texas Southern finding an easy path to 60. Take Michigan (10*). |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Winthrop +7 v. Villanova | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
CBB First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Winthrop plus the points over Villanova at 9:55 pm et on Friday. While Villanova is just two tournaments removed from a National Championship and head coach Jay Wright is deserving of all the respect he receives for putting together a title contender year in and year out, I believe this is a tough opening round matchup for the Wildcats against a Winthrop squad that 'checks all the boxes' as a potential Cinderella team here in March. We've seen some cracks in Villanova's armor down the stretch while Winthrop has just one blemish on its otherwise flawless resume, albeit against inferior opposition to what the Wildcats face on a game-to-game basis in the Big East. I'm not going to knock the Eagles for playing a lighter schedule though - what they've accomplished is certainly deserving of plenty of respect. Winthrop checks in ranked 7th in the nation in total rebounding percentage compared to Villanova's 116th. I really like the fact that the Eagles will be facing a Wildcats defense that hasn't proven to be all that active at its own end of the floor. Note that 'Nova ranks a miserable 343rd in the country in block percentage and 260th in steals per possession. Contrast that with Winthrop, which checks in 59th in steals per possession, while only slightly better in terms of block percentage at 264th. Defensively, Winthrop has been terrific, ranking 18th in opponents floor percentage, top-100 in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage and a respectable 127th in opponents effective field goal percentage. In order to stay inside the number tonight, taking advantage of any and all extra opportunities will be key and the Eagles check in top-five in the nation in extra scoring chances per game and also succeed at pushing the pace, ranking 48th in possessions per game. By contrast, 'Nova ranks 296th in possessions per game. The knock on the Eagles is their inability to knock down their free throws but we did see some improvement from them in that regard down the stretch, as they shot better than 74% from the free throw line in their last three games while the Wildcats saw some regression, knocking down just 66% of their free throw attempts over their last three contests. Maybe the Eagles freeze in the moment and Villanova's championship pedigree leads it to victory here, but I believe Winthrop has all the tools to at the very least take this one down to the wire. Take Winthrop (10*). |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Nets v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Magic haven't won a game since February 21st and are in what appears to be a tough spot here playing the second of back-to-back nights off a tough loss in New York on Thursday. With that being said, I believe they're being given too many points here. The Nets have won six games in a row, including a come-from-behind victory in Indiana (without Kyrie Irving) two nights ago. I do question how easy it will be for the Nets to get up for this one against the slumping Magic, however. The Magic have played hard off a road loss over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 1.9 points per game in that situation, as is the case here. The Nets are outscoring opponents by just 5.2 points per game as a road favorite this season, well south of the spread we're dealing with tonight. Orlando has been getting healthier lately and we've seen signs of progress as it has gone 4-2 ATS over its last six games. I expect the Magic to use last night's close loss as a confidence-builder rather than a reason to be down on themselves here. Take Orlando (10*). |
|||||||
03-17-21 | Heat -1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 85-89 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Memphis at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are fading fast right now, losers of three games in a row, allowing their last two opponents to shoot a combined 89-for-156 (57%) from the field. They're back home tonight and catch the Heat in a back-to-back spot but that's certainly been factored into this line. Keep in mind, Memphis is actually a losing team at home this season where it has been outscored by 3.0 points per game on average. The Heat are an even 10-10 on the road but enter tonight's game riding a six-game winning streak away from home. Having held five straight opponents to 45.3% or worse shooting, I like the way the Heat have locked down on defense lately and I'm confident they can add to the Grizzlies woes on Wednesday night. Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
03-16-21 | Knicks v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks stayed competitive and covered the spread last night in Brooklyn but certainly showed signs of fatigue, shooting just 40% from the field and really only staying in it thanks to the Nets general disinterest in putting the game away. We won with the 76ers in Sunday's rout of the undermanned Spurs and I'm anticipating another convincing victory here on Tuesday. Further to my fatigue comment regarding the Knicks, note that they allowed the Nets to shoot 58% from the field last night. With a number of key cogs currently out of the lineup, I don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot with New York heading home for a four-game homestand after this one. The 76ers continue to play without Joel Embiid but keep rolling along, winners of five games in a row ATS. They're a terrific positive momentum play having gone 14-4 ATS at home after scoring 115 points or more over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.6 points per game in that situation. They've generally been rock solid at home this season, where they outscore opponents by eight points per game, going 14-6 ATS in the process. The Knicks average 105.9 points per game when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 4.4 points. I expect them to have a tough time keeping within arm's reach for four quarters tonight. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
|||||||
03-14-21 | Cavs v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 82-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Cleveland at 7:35 pm et on Sunday. The Hawks avoided a possible 'trap' last night, dominating the Kings in a 121-106 victory. The fact that they're playing on back-to-back nights (and for the third time in four nights) is certainly being factored into the line here. I like the make-up of the Hawks rotation right now with Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic back healthy to contribute off the bench. Cam Reddish remains sidelined but let's face it, he's been a general disappointment in his sophomore season. The Cavs were playing reasonably well prior to the All-Star break but returned with a 34-point loss in New Orleans on Friday. Cleveland remains an awful road team and will face a motivated Hawks squad here after Atlanta dropped a 112-111 decision as eight-point favorites on the road against the Cavs back on February 23rd. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Bucks v. Wizards +11 | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Wizards are 0-2 SU and ATS coming out of the All-Star break and most will expect them to get blown out by the mighty Bucks here, who returned from the break with a rout of the Knicks. I’ll go the other way and grab the points with the Wiz as I see this as a very difficult game for Milwaukee to get up for. Note that the Bucks are just 14-27 ATS on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons. Meanwhile the Wiz are 25-9 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games over the last three seasons and have been out scored by just 4.3 points per game off a loss by 20+ points over the same period. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
03-12-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. The Pacers went into the All-Star break on a real sour note having lost five of their last six games (0-6 ATS) and will certainly have no trouble getting up for this matchup with Lebron and the Lakers in Los Angeles on Friday night. Note that Indiana has gone a stellar 11-1 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 15.1 points when dropping the cash in six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here. The Lakers also entered the break as a downtrodden squad having lost back-to-back games and six of their last eight games overall. Having lost their most recent game in Sacramento, the Lakers are set up poorly here, having actually been outscored by an average margin of 1.6 points following a road loss over the last three seasons. Take Indiana (10*). |
|||||||
03-12-21 | Nevada v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Nevada at 9:30 pm et on Friday. We're able to back the Aztecs at a bit of a discount here thanks to Nevada's upset win over Boise State yesterday combined with San Diego State's narrow escape against Wyoming. Keep in mind, the Aztecs were favored by double-digits in both regular season matchups with Nevada. Both games were close but I look for the Wolf Pack to run out of gas and ultimately for the Aztecs to pull away for a convincing victory tonight. San Diego State is one of the best defensive teams in the country and that's what it takes to win a tough conference tournament like the Mountain West. Note that the Aztecs allow just 59.6 points per game away from home this season. Compare that with Nevada, which gives up north of 72 ppg away from home. San Diego State is a terrific positive momentum play here, noting that it has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.7 points off consecutive wins over the last three seasons. Hammering down further, the Aztecs are 13-5 ATS and outscore opponents by 13.3 points per game when playing away from home following three or more wins in a row over the last two seasons. Nevada hasn't fared particularly well in revenge situations, allowing 79.8 points per game when revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. Take San Diego State (10*). |
|||||||
03-12-21 | South Florida +9 v. Wichita State | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Wichita State at 12 noon et on Friday. While it does check in as the one-seed and has already defeated South Florida twice this season, I think Wichita State is going to play a near perfect game to cover this lofty pointspread. I'm just not convinced we'll see that peak level of performance from the Shockers here. I like the fact that South Florida doesn't need to rely on jacking up threes to stay competitive in a game like this with the Bulls ranking in the top-third in the country in percentage of points from two-pointers this season at north of 52%. I also like that the Bulls have a significant advantage on the glass, ranking an impressive 40th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage (they also check in a respectable 110th in defensive rebounding percentage). Wichita State isn't going to overwhelm South Florida with pressure defense either, noting that it ranks 274th in the country in steals per possession. USF shot miserably in both regular season meetings with Wichita State yet still managed to take one of those games down to the wire losing by only five points. Expect another competitive affair today. Take South Florida (10*). |
|||||||
03-12-21 | California v. Colorado -13.5 | Top | 58-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado minus the points over California at 11:30 pm et on Thursday. I have no problem laying the points with Colorado here as it looks to avenge a stunning nine-point loss suffered as a nine-point favorite at Cal back on February 13th. Cal staged another upset last night, blowout Stanford out of the water as an 8.5-point underdog. I don't expect history to repeat itself here, however. Note that Cal has been outscored by an average margin of 14.5 points when coming off a win over a conference opponent over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Colorado has outscored opponents by an average margin of 14.1 points as a favorite this season, including a 29-point rout of Cal back on January 14th. The Buffaloes clearly looked past the Bears in their most recent meeting but I don't expect to see them get caught flat-footed again here. Take Colorado (10*). |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Suns v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Suns crushed the Blazers by 32 points in Phoenix the last time these two teams met back on February 22nd. This time around, I'm expecting Portland to put up a much tougher fight as it catches the Suns in a favorable situation. Note that Phoenix has inexplicably been outscored by 10.6 points per game on average when playing on the road following a home game over the last three seasons. Further exacerbating things is the fact that the Suns are 0-8 ATS when playing on three or more days' rest over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 10.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Blazers check in 17-6 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.5 points on average. Looking up at Phoenix in the Western Conference standings, look for the Blazers to take a stand at home on Thursday night. Take Portland (10*). |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Penguins v. Sabres +1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
My selection is on Buffalo +1.5 goals over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. This is a tough spot for the Penguins to get up for as they head to Buffalo on the heels of three straight wins on home ice. Note that Pittsburgh is a woeful 0-7 when heading on the road after scoring three or more goals in three straight games over the last two seasons, scoring just 1.4 goals per game in that situation while getting outscored by an average margin of 2.6 goals. The Pens have also been outscored by 0.5 goals per game when coming off consecutive wins by two goals or more over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Buffalo averages an impressive 3.8 goals per game when coming off a one-goal road loss over the last two seasons (the Sabres are coming off a 5-4 overtime loss in Buffalo on Tuesday). Take Buffalo +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Mississippi State +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Kentucky at 12 noon et on Thursday. This looks like a case of undervalued vs. overvalued as Mississippi State has posted a winning ATS record this season while Kentucky checks in seven games below .500 from an ATS perspective. Yes, the Wildcats have owned this series over the years, but if there was ever a time for the Bulldogs to get a win in this series, this would be it. We actually won with Kentucky in its most recent game - a rout of South Carolina this past Saturday. That came at home. Away from home, the Wildcats have gone 4-9 this season, outscored by right around two points per game. Note that Kentucky has gone 0-7 ATS after an ATS win this season, outscored by an average margin of 8.1 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Mississippi State checks in 9-1 ATS coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive margin of 12.8 points on average in that situation. Take Mississippi State (10*). |
|||||||
03-10-21 | Spurs +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. I don't think the Spurs are getting nearly enough credit for what they accomplished in the face of what seemed like constant adversity in the first half of the season. San Antonio checks into this game sporting an 18-14 overall record, including a stellar 9-4 record away from home. That's despite missing key cogs due to injuries and otherwise throughout. The Spurs have had plenty of success here in Dallas in recent years, taking three of the last four meetings outright and I like them catching the points here as well. Note that San Antonio has thrived in a revenge role in recent years, going an incredible 42-17 ATS when revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.5 points. Meanwhile, Dallas has been as inconsistent as they come from an ATS perspective, and check in 9-20 ATS in 29 home games after posting an ATS win in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just 0.5 points in that situation. San Antonio is expected to have some bodies back for this one and should be fresh after the All-Star break. I expect Gregg Popovich will have his team ready for this one. Take San Antonio (10*). |
|||||||
03-10-21 | San Jose State v. Wyoming -11.5 | Top | 80-111 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Wyoming minus the points over San Jose State at 2 pm et on Wednesday. I suspect most bettors may shy away from a middling 13-10 Wyoming squad laying double-digits in the opening round of the Mountain West Tournament on Wednesday afternoon. We won't hesitate to back the Cowboys, however, as they should be able to take their frustrations out on an awful San Jose State squad. The Spartans have just five wins to their credit this season. Two of those victories came against non-Division I opponents. The other three came against 5-19 Air Force (two wins) and 6-15 New Mexico. This will be their first matchup with Wyoming this season with the Cowboys having won 13 of the last 14 matchups. Credit Wyoming for hanging in there against a tough Mountain West schedule this season, winning the games it should and even staging a few upsets along the way (it posted outright underdog wins against Fresno State, Nevada and UNLV). Note that San Jose State was outscored by a whopping 20.4 points per game away from home during the regular season. Wyoming was far more respectable in that regard, outscored by just 3.7 points per game. In an underdog role, San Jose State has been outscored by 17.9 points per game this season. The Spartans have been an excellent negative momentum fade having gone 7-17 ATS, outscored by an average margin of 21.9 points when playing away from home following two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, as is the case here. This is probably the only winnable game for Wyoming in this tournament, and I expect the Cowboys to take full advantage. Take Wyoming (10*). |
|||||||
03-09-21 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -8 | Top | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Notre Dame minus the points over Wake Forest at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We cashed a ticket fading Wake Forest in its most recent game - a double-digit home loss against Georgia Tech last Friday night. The Demon Deacons have all but packed up the tent for the 2020-21 season, losers of six straight games both SU and ATS. Note that Wake Forest has won just once in 10 tries away from its home court this season, outscored by an average margin of 12.3 points. This is a revenge spot after Notre Dame took the regular season meeting by 21 points but Wake hasn't been anything special in that situation, outscored by an average margin of 6.6 points when revenging a loss over the last two seasons. The Irish managed to pull up their socks and bring an end to their four-game losing streak with a very impressive 10-point victory over a quality Florida State squad on Saturday. That was the type of victory that should produce a positive carry-over effect here. While the Irish went 4-9 on the road during the regular season, they were actually outscored by an average margin of only 2.2 points, winning the majority of the games they should (some in blowout fashion) while losing those where they stepped up in class. This game certainly qualifies as the former and I'm confident we'll see the Irish prevail by a convincing margin. Take Notre Dame (10*). |
|||||||
03-09-21 | FC Porto v. Juventus -1 | Top | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
Champions League Match of the Month. My selection is on Juventus -1.5 goals over FC Porto at 3 pm et on Tuesday. The reality here is that Juventus needs only 1-0 victory to advance past Porto onto the Champions League quarter-final round, despite suffering a stunning 2-1 road defeat in the first leg of the Round of 16. With that in mind, I don't believe we're see Pirlo's side hold anything back or leave anything to chance on Tuesday. It's interesting to note that the total has been set at 2.5 for this match. I actually do believe Juventus has a good chance at coming away with a clean sheet, noting that it has allowed just six goals in its last 12 matches combined. Porto clearly caught Juventus flat-footed in the first leg of this matchup but the Italian side's late goal served them well, giving them more than a fighting chance of advancing heading into this match at home. We're being offered a very reasonable price to back the superior side with high motivation here. Take Juventus -1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
03-08-21 | Northern Kentucky -1 v. Oakland | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
CBB Horizon League Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Kentucky minus the points over Oakland at 9:30 pm et on Monday. Given the discrepancy between these two teams overall records, with North Kentucky owning a considerable edge in that regard, it may be a little odd to see the Norse priced near a pk'em in this matchup. I can understand the logic behind it, however, with this game being played on a neutral court and Northern Kentucky having posted a losing record away from home, not to mention the fact that Oakland has been scoring at will lately, putting up 80+ points in five straight and seven of its last nine games overall. With that being said, I like the way this Horizon League Tournament semi-final matchup sets up for the Norse. NKU has outscored opponents by 5.3 points per game on average after winning two of its last three games over the last two seasons. The Norse have also fared well as a positive momentum play coming off a win by six points or less in their last game, outscoring the opposition by 6.7 points on average in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Oakland has been outscored by nearly 10 points per game in an underdog role this season. When coming off an ATS win, the Grizzlies have been outscored by an average margin of 8.4 points in their next contest. While this has been a series that has featured plenty of close games, Northern Kentucky has managed to win four of the last five meetings over the last three seasons. Take Northern Kentucky (10*). |
Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
Sean Murphy ALL Sports Top Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-04-21 | Temple v. Rutgers -14.5 | Top | 14-61 | Win | 100 | 48 h 24 m | Show |
09-03-21 | North Carolina -5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 14 m | Show |
08-31-21 | Yankees -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
08-28-21 | UTEP -9 v. New Mexico State | Top | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 465 h 11 m | Show |
08-26-21 | Aces -10.5 v. Dream | Top | 78-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
08-20-21 | Chiefs -2 v. Cardinals | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
08-19-21 | Edmonton Elks +4.5 v. BC | Top | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
08-12-21 | Washington Football Team -2 v. Patriots | Top | 13-22 | Loss | -108 | 85 h 31 m | Show |
08-09-21 | Marlins v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
08-08-21 | Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
07-25-21 | Canada v. Costa Rica | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
07-14-21 | Suns +4 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 20 m | Show |
07-09-21 | Lynx v. Aces -6.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
07-06-21 | Phillies v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 15-10 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
07-03-21 | Denmark v. Czech Republic +0.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
06-30-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
06-29-21 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -164 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +7 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
06-29-21 | Ukraine v. Sweden | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
06-26-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets -1 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
06-19-21 | A's +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -165 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
06-16-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
06-12-21 | Padres v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
06-11-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Storm v. Dream +10 | Top | 95-71 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
06-05-21 | Sky +5 v. Sparks | Top | 63-68 | Push | 0 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers -2 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
05-28-21 | Lynx +7.5 v. Storm | Top | 72-82 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
05-28-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
05-27-21 | Suns v. Lakers -7 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
05-27-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -2 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
05-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
05-22-21 | Storm -6 v. Wings | Top | 100-97 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
05-21-21 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
05-18-21 | Lynx -1.5 v. Liberty | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
05-14-21 | Sun -2.5 v. Dream | Top | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
05-13-21 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
05-12-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -6 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
05-08-21 | Thunder v. Warriors -14 | Top | 97-136 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
05-04-21 | Oilers v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -141 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks -1 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
05-02-21 | Raptors v. Lakers -7 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
05-01-21 | Pistons v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 94-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies -10.5 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
04-30-21 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
04-29-21 | Pelicans -9 v. Thunder | Top | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
04-29-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
04-25-21 | Cavs v. Wizards -9.5 | Top | 110-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
04-24-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
04-23-21 | Nuggets -2 v. Warriors | Top | 97-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
04-22-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
04-21-21 | Suns -1 v. 76ers | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
04-19-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 137-139 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
04-17-21 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 128-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
04-15-21 | Devils +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
04-14-21 | Mavs -2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 114-113 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
04-13-21 | Celtics v. Blazers -1 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
04-12-21 | Jets v. Senators +1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
04-09-21 | Rockets +12 v. Clippers | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
04-09-21 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +2 | Top | 129-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga -4 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
04-03-21 | Mavs v. Wizards +6 | Top | 109-87 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
04-02-21 | Bulls +12.5 v. Jazz | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
03-31-21 | Blazers v. Pistons +7 | Top | 124-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga -8 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
03-29-21 | Pacers v. Wizards +5 | Top | 124-132 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech +1 | Top | 84-62 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
03-27-21 | Oregon State v. Loyola-Chicago -6.5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
03-26-21 | Nets -5.5 v. Pistons | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
03-22-21 | Abilene Christian +5 v. UCLA | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Oregon State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
03-21-21 | Bulls -3 v. Pistons | Top | 100-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Spurs v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 113-120 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
03-20-21 | Texas Southern v. Michigan -25 | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
03-19-21 | Winthrop +7 v. Villanova | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
03-19-21 | Nets v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
03-17-21 | Heat -1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 85-89 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
03-16-21 | Knicks v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
03-14-21 | Cavs v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 82-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
03-13-21 | Bucks v. Wizards +11 | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
03-12-21 | Nevada v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
03-12-21 | South Florida +9 v. Wichita State | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
03-12-21 | California v. Colorado -13.5 | Top | 58-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
03-11-21 | Suns v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
03-11-21 | Penguins v. Sabres +1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
03-11-21 | Mississippi State +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
03-10-21 | Spurs +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
03-10-21 | San Jose State v. Wyoming -11.5 | Top | 80-111 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
03-09-21 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -8 | Top | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
03-09-21 | FC Porto v. Juventus -1 | Top | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
03-08-21 | Northern Kentucky -1 v. Oakland | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |