Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-20-21 | Raiders +3 v. Browns | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Raiders +3) I was on the Raiders early last week before the game had to be moved back and I'll still take Las Vegas in this fight. Not sure why they moved the game back, because it's not like Cleveland is going to get a lot of guys back. They won't have starting quarterback Baker Mayfield or backup Case Keenum. That's a big problem for an offense that wasn't playing very well. Key here is there's no way the Raiders can assume anything and just think they will walk over Cleveland. They have to win this game to keep their season alive and arguably have the best looking injury report of any team in the league right now. Give me Las Vegas +3! |
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12-19-21 | Panthers +11 v. Bills | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 3 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Panthers +11) As difficult as it is to back the Panthers given how much I've been burned by Carolina this season and the ridiculous rate at which these big favorites have been covering the last two weeks, there's no way I'm not playing the Panthers at this price. It's not so much that I'm really big on Carolina. More than anything, this is a play against the Bills. I want to start out by saying, I was on this Buffalo downfall from the start. With last week's loss to the Bucs we at worst will push our win total bet on the Bills UNDER 11. I'd love to see it here, but I think we will get it for next week when they go to Foxborough to face the Patriots. Speaking of that game, it's part of why I like this spot for the Panthers. Buffalo is coming off two massive games with that monster game on deck. Two weeks ago they hosted the Pats on MNF in a wind storm and last week went on the road and lost a heartbreaker to Tom Brady and the Bucs 27-33 in OT. Also, while I think the experts can see the flaws in this Buffalo team, the betting public still thinks they are great and in their minds this is the perfect bounceback spot for the Bills against a struggling Panthers team. Which is why I think we are seeing the inflated number here. I also think the books really want to push the envelope on these big favorites given how many have covered the last two Sunday's. I know Cam Newton and the Panthers offense have been a mess the last two games, but it's been more about turnovers than anything, as they have coughed it up 3 times in each of their last two games. I'm banking that we will see some regression in that area this week against a Bills defense that has regressed a ton of late and forced just 2 turnovers total in their last 4 games combined. I also love the matchup for the Panthers defense. Carolina's ranked No. 1 in the NFL in pass defense, giving up a mere 177.7 ypg. It's really a nightmare matchup for this Bills offense that really has no desire to run the football. Give me the Panthers +11! |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars -3.5 | 30-16 | Loss | -113 | 75 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) -Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Jaguars -3.5) As soon I heard that Urban Meyer was being fired from the Jaguars, I couldn't place my bet fast enough on them to cover at home against the Texans on Sunday. I think it's pretty safe to say that Meyer had lost that lockerroom and I'm not really sure he ever had it. There's no question that he rubbed several of the players and coaches the wrong way. It's going to be like a breath of fresh air for this team to go to work and not have to see his face. I think it's going to translate into by far the best showing the Jags will have had this season and lucky for them they get to take out their frustration on a horrible team like the Texans. Houston is a team the Jags could have beat and covered against despite Meyers. Keep in mind not only have the Jags had to deal with all of Myers crap, they have played a brutal schedule. Give me Jacksonville -3.5! |
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12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers -1 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
50* (NFL) -Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Steelers -1) I will gladly take my chances with the Steelers at basically a pick'em at home against the Titans. I'm not big on this Pittsburgh team, but I love this matchup and price on the Steelers. The Titans are still getting way too much respect for what they accomplished prior to losing two of their best players to injury in Derrick Henry and AJ Brown. It's also not just those two, Tennessee has a laundry list of guys on the injury report. Big Ben has looked better of late, but more than anything, this is a game the Steelers should be able to control from the start with their defense. As long as the offense shows some kind of life and avoids turning it over, Pittsburgh should not only win this game, but win comfortably. Give me Pittsburgh -1! |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Rams/Cardinals MNF Vegas INSIDER (Rams +2.5) I will take my chances with the Rams as a slim 2.5-point road dog against the Cardinals. I'll admit it's not easy going against Arizona at home laying less than a field goal, but it just feels too good to be true. Everyone is going to be on the Cardinals, which has me taking the Rams. I do like this Rams team and they are do for a real signature type of win. They also will be playing with revenge after getting embarrassed 37-20 at home by Arizona back in Week 4. Give me LA +2.5! |
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12-12-21 | Bears +13 v. Packers | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -118 | 76 h 19 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Bears/Packers MAX UNIT Top Play (Bears +13) I love the Bears catching almost two touchdowns against the Packers on Sunday Night Football. This line was going to be inflated on Green Bay no matter when it was played, but even more so with it being a prime time game that is going to get a ton of action. Chicago might not have any business winning this game, but it's not asking a lot for a division opponent to keep it within two touchdowns. Chicago did only lose by a final of 14-24 in the first meeting and that was without starting running back David Montgomery and rookie quarterback Justin Fields still adjusting to the NFL game. Fields definitely has a ways to go, but him getting the start over Andy Dalton at least gives Chicago a chance. Fields didn't do much throwing it against the Packers in the first meeting, but did rush for 43 yards and has been a much bigger threat on the ground as he's gotten more reps. I know the Packers have that No. 1 seed in their sights, but this isn't exactly a game that is going to have their juices flowing. It's a bit of a letdown off that big win against the Rams and a big road game against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on deck. Give me the Bears +13.5! |
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12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -2 | 22-24 | Push | 0 | 95 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Browns -2) I just really think we are getting a great price here with Cleveland in this spot. Not only do the Browns need this game to stay in the race for the AFC North title, they desperately need a win here just to stay in the playoff picture in the AFC. Not that motivation was going to be an issue, but this one will mean a little more to Cleveland, as they went into their bye last week off a hard fought 16-10 loss at Baltimore. While the Browns have had two full weeks to get ready for their shot at revenge, Baltimore had to play at Pittsburgh this past Sunday and it didn't go as planned with the Ravens losing 19-20 on a failed 2-pt attempt at the end of regulation. Not only is the spot bad for Baltimore, but this is a banged up Ravens team. They got 17 guys on IR with 7 of those being starters and 3 of them former Pro Bowl players. They have really been decimated in the secondary, which just lost starter Marlon Humphrey in the loss to Pittsburgh. The offensive line has been a mess and it's shown in the recent struggles of Lamar, who has thrown 10 interceptions and been sacked 24 times in their last 6 games. I know this game still comes down to the play of Baker Mayfield and the Browns ability to get the ground game going, which is no sure thing. However, I just think the extra rest, especially for Mayfield will pay off in a big home win. Give me the Browns -2! |
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12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team +4.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Football Team +4.5) I have to roll the dice and take Washington as a 4.5-point home dog in Sunday's division showdown with the Cowboys. The Football Team has really came out of nowhere to turn their season around with 4 straight wins. All of it starting when they came out of their bye and beat the Tom Brady and the Bucs 29-19 as a 10-point dog. All 4 of their wins during this run have came as a dog and I think you got to ride this team in this underdog role as long as you can. You could argue their turnaround started before the bye, as they could have easily won at Green Bay and at Denver in the two games leading up to the extra week off. The running game has really sparked the offense and the defense is playing exceptionally well right now. Washington has allowed 21 or fewer points in 5 straight. As for the Cowboys, they always are inflated when it comes to the spread because the public just can't help themselves. I just don't like what I've seen out of Dallas of late. The defense has to force turnovers to be any good and the offense has not been in sync since Dak got hurt. Give me the Football Team +4.5! |
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12-12-21 | Jaguars +8.5 v. Titans | 0-20 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Jaguars +8.5) As difficult as it is to go into a game needing the Jags to play well, I have to take my chances with Jacksonville at 8.5 against the Titans. I just don't understand what Tennessee has done besides go on their bye week that makes you think this team is going to look any different than it did prior to the bye. It's just not the same team without Derek Henry to really dictate the game. Not only can the Titans not run the ball, defenses no longer have to load the box to try and stop him. I know the numbers aren't great and it hasn't resulted in a lot of close games, but the Jaguars defense isn't as bad as what people think. They haven't allowed an opposing QB to throw for more than 290 yards in 6 straight games and this is a stretch where they have faced some decent teams and QBs. If we can just get a little something out of that Jags offense, they might just win this game outright. Give me Jacksonville +8.5! |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
50* (NFL) -Steelers/Vikings MAX UNIT Top Play (Vikings -3) I love Minnesota at -3. The Vikings are the much better team, but there's been an overreaction with the public on these two teams after last week's results. The Vikings just lost a game to the Lions, who hadn't won a game all season. It doesn't get much worse than that. Pittsburgh on the other hand beat a Ravens team that came in with the best record in the AFC. It was also a game many were calling a "must-win" for the Steelers. As bad as it looks losing to the Lions, it's not as bad as what it's being made out to be. In all honesty, that's a Detroit team that could have a handful of wins this year. They are still not out of a playoff spot in the NFC at 5-7. It really feels a lot like the spot Pittsburgh was in last week, where Minnesota has to win here if they want to realistically have a shot. I would clearly say the Vikings have the motivation edge. While not technically a dog, this to me will be a home team playing with a chip on their shoulder. I also just don't think this Steelers team is that good. People forget they tied the Lions and more than half (4) of their wins have come by 5 or fewer points. Give me the Vikings -3! |
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12-06-21 | Patriots +3 v. Bills | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Pats/Bills MNF Vegas INSIDER (Patriots +3) I've been on this Patriots bandwagon for a while now. I bet them to win the AFC East before the season even started. I can't help myself but to take them as a dog against the Bills on Monday Night Football. New England is a matchup nightmare for this Buffalo team that can't run the ball and just aren't a very physical team. The Pats have one of the best secondaries in the league and are one of the best running teams on the other side. If that wasn't going to be hard enough for the Bills to overcome, Mother Nature is going to make it even harder. The conditions for this game are going to be brutal with winds pushing 30 mph and a chance of rain. That's not ideal for a team that can't run the ball. Give me the Patriots +3! |
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12-05-21 | Broncos +10 v. Chiefs | 9-22 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 22 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Broncos/Chiefs SNF Vegas INSIDER (Broncos +10) As difficult as it is to bet against Andy Reid and the Chiefs off a bye, I just can't pass up on the value with Denver at +10. No question Kansas City has played better football during their 4-game win streak, but not all is quite right with this team. Outside of that game against the Raiders, where Mahomes and the Chiefs looked like the offense of years past, this KC offense has not really done a lot during the win streak. If this offense was truly back to its old form, they would have easily put up 30+ on that Cowboys defense at home. Now they face a really good Denver defense who not only will play that 2-high look that has been giving this Chiefs offense trouble, but also has some nice talent on that side of the ball. Also, while the Chiefs defense has been playing much better, Teddy Bridgewater and that Denver offense are going to be just fine in this game. Give me the Broncos +10! |
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12-05-21 | Washington Football Team +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 72 h 16 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Football Team +2.5) I love the Football Team to go into Las Vegas and beat the Raiders, making this an easy play for me with Washington as the dog in this fight. While I think people are starting to take notice of what the Football Team has been doing of late, I don't think they have been impressive enough to where they are getting too much respect. It still feels like to me that it's time to buy stock on this team. On the flip side of this, I'm not buying into the Raiders big win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The offense had one good game against a bad Dallas defense. Big deal. Couple big things for me in that game is I don't think people factor in that it was a bit of a letdown spot for Dallas coming off that big game against Mahomes and the Chiefs the week before (it's all anyone was talking about leading up to that Sunday). The other is the Cowboys offense didn't have Cooper or Lamb and Dak still managed to carve up Las Vegas' secondary for 375 yards. That's now 3 straight games the Raiders defense has been absolutely shredded and while this Washington offense isn't as good as those 3 teams the Raiders just faced (Chiefs, Bengals, Cowboys), I think they are going to be able to move the ball and put up points. I can't say the same about the Raiders offense. Washington's defense has gotten better and better as the season has progressed. They have held each of their last 5 opponents under 250 passing yards and are giving up just 67.6 rushing yards/game during this stretch. Give me the Football Team +2.5! |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Monday Night Football MAX UNIT Top Play (Seahawks +1) I'm going to take the Seahawks to go on the road and find a way to get a win against the Football Team. I just think this is the buy low spot for Seattle. Everyone is not only writing this team off for this season, but I hear all kinds of people talking about how they should blow this whole thing up. I just think it's quite the overreaction and while Russell Wilson hasn't looked great since he came back, he has faced two of the best teams in the league in the Packers and Cardinals. Wilson also came back earlier than expected from that injury, so it shouldn't have been a shocker he didn't look like himself right away. This should be more in line when we expected him back and I think he has a big game. I also think this is a good time to sell high on Washington after back-to-back upset wins over the Bucs and and Panthers. I'm still not a believer in this Football Team's offense and because so much attention is going to how bad the Seattle offense has been, people are overlooking how good this team has been defensively over the last couple months. Give me the Seahawks +1! |
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11-28-21 | Browns +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -101 | 74 h 8 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Browns/Ravens MAX UNIT Top Play (Browns +3.5) I love the Browns as a 3.5-point dog against the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. I just think this is the perfect buy low spot on Cleveland. All you hear about is how bad Baker Mayfield is playing and how this team isn't what we thought they were during their great start to the season. I'm not about to say Mayfield has played great, but he's not built to carry a team. This team is built on their running game and defense and injuries have really kept them from playing to their potential. I think they are close. They got back Chubb and now will finally have their 1-2 punch out of the backfield back with Kareem Hunt expected to return. They also are getting back tackle Jack Conklin to give that o-line a big boost. As for the Ravens, I think they aren't as good as what people think. Lamar Jackson is great, but they have decimated with injuries. The offensive line is awful and will somehow have to slow down that great Browns pass rush. They also aren't the same on defense as they have been in past years. There's a lot of weak spots for Baltimore on that side of the ball. I think Cleveland could really make a statement here. Give me the Browns +3.5! |
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11-28-21 | Bucs -3 v. Colts | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 95 h 14 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bucs -3) I agreed with you that the Colts were the play last week as a 7.5-point dog at Buffalo. I just think winning the way they did has them getting way to much respect this week against Tom Brady and the Bucs. We both mentioned how we didn't think that Josh Allen and the Bills were as good as what people thought. That's the thing tough. The public still sees Buffalo as one of the best teams in the league. No one is even hesitating to lay almost a touchdown with them on the road in a short week against the Saints on Thanksgiving night. So while Indy may have went on the road and embarrassed Buffalo last week, I think they could be the ones on the receiving end of a lopsided loss this week. I think most have come to realize that the Colts want to run their offense through running back Jonathan Taylor. I just saw an article on ESPN on how Taylor leads all players, not just RBs, in Pro Bowl voting. Maybe I'm on underestimating him, but I think he's going to have a really tough time getting going against this Bucs front seven. Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the NFL, giving up just 78.4 ypg. More than 10 yards fewer than the next best team in the Ravens, who give up 88.6 ypg. I think with Taylor being limited, the Colts are going to have a really tough time moving the ball in this game. On the flip side of this, Brady and the Bucs put their ugly showing at Washington out of their bye in the rear view window, as they scored 30 points with over 400 yards in their blowout win against the Giants on Monday Night Football. Now I know the Giants aren't viewed as a very good team, but they had been playing really well defensively going into that game. Even after that showing, NY's secondary ranks 8th in the NFL, giving up just 6.9 yards/pass attempt. The Colts on the other hand are way back at 20th in that department, giving up 7.5 yards/attempt. I get they made Josh Allen look bad, but making Tom Brady look bad is a different story. Brady knows how to beat any defense you throw at him and I just don't trust this Indy secondary. Prior to facing Allen, the Colts previous 8 games had them go up against the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Mike White/Josh Johnson, Ryan Tannehill twice, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davis Mills, Lamar Jackson and Jacoby Brissett. You might be saying Jackson is good. I agree and he went 37 for 44 for 442 yards and 4 scores against Indy. I just think there's too much value with Tampa Bay at -3 to pass up and if it were to dip under 3 to 2.5, I'll be adding even more. I think the line here should at a minimum be Bucs -3.5 and probably should be 4 to 4.5. Give me Tampa Bay -3! |
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11-28-21 | Jets v. Texans -2.5 | 21-14 | Loss | -108 | 67 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Texans -2.5) I just think there's some decent value with the Texans laying less than a field goal at home against the Jets. I'm not just taking Houston because they are coming off that big upset win over Tennessee. I really don't love betting on bad teams, but I do like betting against the worst of the worst and this Jets team is really bad. The Jets decided to start Joe Flacco last week to make sure there was no debating on if they should go back to Zach Wilson this week. There's definitely some upside with Wilson, but I think any of the other three guys they have used in recent weeks are a better option. I think people forget how bad Wilson was prior to his injury. I also wonder how the players will respond if he struggles to play well. You have to think there's some guys on that team that don't think he's the guy that gives them the best shot to win. The other big thing is I think this Jets defense might be one of the worst we have seen in some time. Don't be fooled by a bad Dolphins offense only scoring 24 on them last week. That's more of Miami than anything. With Tyrod Taylor calling the shots for Houston, I think the Texans will have their best showing since Week 1, when they put up 37 points and nearly 450 yards of offense against the Jags. Give me the Texans -2.5! |
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11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | 10-30 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Giants/Bucs MNF Vegas INSIDER (Giants +11.5) I'll take my chances with the Giants catching double-digits on the road against Tampa Bay. It just feels like the books are giving Tom Brady and the Bucs the same treatment this year that they gave Mahomes and the Chiefs last year after they won the Super Bowl. They know the public is going to back them no matter what and are inflating the lines so much that they you got to take the other side. It would be one thing to lay this big number with Tampa Bay if they were at full strength, but they are still without one of their top weapons offensively in Antonio Brown and even if Gronk comes back, he's been out so long that he's unlikely to have a big role if he does play. I also think the loss of defensive tackle Vita Vea isn't getting near the attention it should. He's the reason that the Bucs have been so good against the run and I think his absence has a negative ripple effect on the rest of the defense. The Giants also got a lot of injuries they are dealing with, but they are going to be the much more rested team coming off of their bye. I also think this New York defense is very underrated. They have given up 20 or fewer in each of their last 3 games and have been forcing a ton of turnovers (10 takeaways in their last 5 games). Give me the Giants +11.5! |
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11-21-21 | Cowboys v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -2.5) I love the Chiefs as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Cowboys, as this is just too good a price to pass up on KC at home, especially after what we saw last week with their offense finally getting back on track in a 41-14 blowout win against the Raiders. I just think there's a lot of people that credit the Chiefs offense getting back on track as a result of playing the Raiders, who they have seen really fall apart over the last few weeks. I think that's a big mistake. I believe it was exactly what Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs team needed and we are going to see them carry it over against an awful Cowboys defense that isn't nearly as good as the numbers show. The other big thing that gets overlooked with Kansas City is their defense and the improvements they have made since the beginning of the season. They have got some guys back from injury like corner Ward and linebacker Gay. They have replaced Sorenson with Thornhill at safety, moved Chris Jones back inside and added a good pass rusher in Melvin Ingram. In the Chiefs last 5 games they are giving up just 88.2 rushing yards/game and 220.8 ypg. Say what you want about who they have played, those numbers would both rank in the Top 10 in the league for the season. I also don't think there's near enough being made about Amari Cooper not being able to play for Dallas. Not having to worry about him is going to allow KC's defense to focus that much more on stopping CeeDee Lamb and if they can keep him from having a big game, I think they keep this Cowboys offense in check. Give me the Chiefs -2.5! |
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11-21-21 | Bengals v. Raiders +1 | 32-13 | Loss | -102 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS BLOODBATH (Raiders +1) I think we are getting a great price on the Raiders at basically a pick'em at home against the Bengals. Not a big surprise, as the public likes this Cincinnati team with Joe Burrow and they will like that the Bengals are coming off a bye. They also want nothing to do with Las Vegas right now, especially after watching them get beat pretty bad last week at home against the Chiefs. I know the final score looks bad in that game against KC, but that's a different game if DeSean Jackson doesn't fumble on that long pass. He scores there and it's a 3-point game. Instead it was like the life was sucked out of this team. I also think people are sleeping on the improvements that the Chiefs have made defensively over the last month with some of the guys they have added and got back from injury. I think this Raiders defense and their ability to get pressure on the quarterback is something that is getting overlooked, as they should have a field day against a horrible Bengals' offensive line. I also think this Cincinnati defense is one that LV can have some success against. Give me the Raiders +1! |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 10 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Dolphins -3) I'll be the first to admit that there wasn't a scenario or opponent that would have had me laying points with the Dolphins on the road, but there's just no way I'm passing up Miami as a mere 3-point road favorite against this Jets team. Not only do I think Miami has improved quite a bit over the last month of the season, I feel that the Jets are playing with fire with the decision of the coaching staff to start a washed up Joe Flacco at quarterback over the likes of Mike White. Now I know White played poorly last week against the Bills, but that was somewhat to be expected given he was up against arguably the league's best secondary. The thing is, they aren't benching him because of that or because he's injured. They are 100% starting Flacco to protect their 1st round investment of Zach Wilson. They want to make sure that when Wilson is healthy and ready to play, they can go back to him as the starter without any controversy. While it might prove to be the wise decision long-term, I don't think the decision can sit well with the players in the locker room. They are basically saying they would rather lose than play the best players that give them a chance to win. I really think as bad as the Jets have looked of late, this could very well go down as their worst performance of the year. Not only are they limiting themselves offensively, but they have without a doubt in my mind the worst defense in the league. I think Miami showed us in last week's big upset win over the Ravens that they have not quit on this season. I know it's a longshot, but even at 3-7 this team has to feel like they can get back in the playoff race in the AFC. With home games against the Panthers, Giants and Jets after this road game at New York, they got a realistic shot to be sitting at 7-7 with 3 to play. Give me the Dolphins -3! |
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11-21-21 | Ravens v. Bears +6.5 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS SHOCKER (Bears +6.5) I really like the value we are getting with the Bears catching 6.5-points at home against the Ravens. I really don't think the Ravens should be more than a field goal favorite in this game, but it's been inflated because of all the public love for Lamar Jackson and Baltimore, as well as the fact that Chicago has lost 4 straight. I just don't think this Ravens team is as good as what their record shows or what people think. The defense is no where close to what it's been in the past, they don't have the talent at running back that they have had in the past. The offense is also not producing anywhere close to expectations on the road, as they are scoring just 19.8 ppg away from home on the season. As for the Bears, I think this is a team that is on the rise. It took some time, but Justin Fields finally looks comfortable and we really saw him take a big step forward in the second half of that game against the Steelers in Week 9. Ravens have failed to cover each of their last 6 games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, losing on average in this spot by 5.2 ppg. Give me the Bears +6.5! |
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11-18-21 | Patriots -6.5 v. Falcons | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Patriots/Falcons TNF NO-BRAINER (Patriots -6.5) I know everyone is going to be on the Patriots in this game, but there's no way I'm betting against Bill Belichick and this New England team in this spot. I was high on this Pats team coming into the year and bet them at 3/1 to win the AFC East when everyone was taking the Bills. They got off to a slow start, but as Belichick teams do, they have gotten better and better as the season rolls on. New England has won and covered each of their last 4 games, with 3 of those 4 wins coming in blowout fashion. I just don't see how the Falcons can make a game of this. Everyone was buying into Atlanta after their 3-1 SU and ATS run leading into the Cowboys game, but it was more of them just taking advantage of a soft schedule. I still think this is a below average team and they showed that last week in their 43-3 loss at Dallas. The biggest thing here for me is Belichick's ability to gameplan week to week and take away what a team does best. Well this Atlanta team can't run the ball and you can bet your last dollar that Belichick is going to do everything in his power to take Kyle Pitts out of the game. I also think it's huge that Atlanta will likely be without their swiss army knife in Cordarrelle Patterson. Outside of Pitts, Patterson and Ridley (who left the team), no other player for the Falcons has more than 200 yards receiving. Unless the Pats offense has a complete no show, I just don't see them not winning here by less than a touchdown. Give me New England -6.5! |
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11-14-21 | Eagles v. Broncos -2.5 | 30-13 | Loss | -104 | 73 h 53 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Broncos -2.5) I will gladly lay the 2.5 at home with the Broncos against the Eagles. I just don't understand why this Philly team keeps getting so much respect. They closed as a pick'em at home against the Chargers and were only a 1-point dog at LV. Their only 3 wins on the sason are at Atlanta in Week 1 when the Falcons were a complete mess, at Carolina and at Detroit. I know they are a good running team, but they have a liability at quarterback in Jalen Hurts. In the Eagles last 5 games they are averaging a mere 157.4 passing yards/game. I just don't see them going on the road in a very tough place to play at Denver and just running the ball effectively enough to win this game. The Broncos come into this game off a shocking 30-16 win at Dallas as a 10-point dog. I don't always love backing teams off a big win like this, but that's usually because they end up being overvalued and laying more than they should be. I don't think that's the case here. Everyone wants to just say the Cowboys didn't play well and Dak wasn't ready to come back. No one wants to give this team the respect they deserve. I don't think there's any question that Teddy Bridgewater is the best QB on the field in this game and I think he's going to have a huge game against an awful Eagles secondary. I also wouldn't sleep on this Denver ground game. They got two talented back in rookie Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. The two had 191 yards on 38 carries against Dallas. I just don't think the Eagles are good enough to even make a game of it. Give me the Broncos -2.5! |
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11-14-21 | Browns v. Patriots -1 | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 95 h 55 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Patriots -1) I will gladly take my chances betting against Cleveland in this one. The Browns had the most lopsided win of any team in Week 9, as they went on the road and crushed division rival Cincinnati 41-16. Some might see a strong correlation with Cleveland having one of their best games after they ridded themselves of Odell Beckham Jr, but I'm not buying that storyline. I think the Browns caught a massive break early in that Bengals game and it was also a great matchup for Cleveland. The break came on the first drive of the game, where Cincinnati drove it all the way down to 1st & Goal to go, only to throw a 99-yard pick six. That completely flipped the script of that game and gave a struggling Browns team some much-needed life. Browns also had two long TD plays. They had a 60-yard TD pass on the first play after the Bengals turned it over on downs. They later got a 70-yard TD run from Nick Chubb. They only outgained the Bengals 361 to 348 and were out first downed 25 to 14. It simply wasn't as dominant as performance as what the score leads you to believe. I think it's going to be a lot tougher sledding for Baker Mayfield and that Browns offense on the road against a Pats defense that has really come into their own of late. It also doesn't help that Chubb is probably a no go after testing positive for COVID and even if he does play, Bill Belichick will have a game plan in place to not let Cleveland get their running game going and force Mayfield to beat them. Mayfield has faced a Belichick defense once so far in his brief career. That was at New England back in 2019. It didn't go well. He threw for just 194 yards and was sacked 5 times in a 13-27 loss. It's not going to be easy for the Pats offense against this Browns defense, but I just trust New England's offense more in this game and all we need is for them to find a way to win the game. Give me the Patriots -1! |
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11-14-21 | Lions +9 v. Steelers | 16-16 | Win | 100 | 69 h 27 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER (Lions +9) I will gladly take my chances here with the Lions as a 9-point dog against the Steelers. I don't care how bad you think this Detroit team is, Pittsburgh should not be close to a double-digit favorite against any team in the league. The Steelers offense is extremely limited with the little that Big Ben has left in the tank and their defense isn't all that it's made out to be. We saw that in their last game against the Bears, where they couldn't stop Justin Fields in the 2nd half of that game. I also think there's value here with Detroit, because the last time we saw them they got annihilated 44-6 at home by the Eagles. Thing with that game was it was a massive letdown for the Lions after playing their hearts out for Jared Goff against his old team in the Rams. Outside of that game, the one thing the Lions have done under Campbell is play extremely hard. This team is an NFL record long field goal from beating the Ravens, they also lost by just 2 at Minnesota. The game against the Rams was extremely close. I just feel like we are going to get one of those massive efforts from Detroit out of their bye week. I definitely think they cover the big number and I don't think it's out of the question that they win this game outright. Give me the Lions +9! |
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11-14-21 | Saints v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -120 | 69 h 18 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Titans -2.5) I don't care that this looks too good to be true with Tennessee. The Titans are getting disrespected with this number. They should be be a bigger favorite than 2.5 at home against a Saints team that is starting Trevor Siemian at quarterback. It shouldn't really come as a huge surprise that the books are off on the line when it comes to the Titans. They have been all season. Tennessee has covered 5 straight and are 7-2 ATS on the year. Everyone wanted to make a big deal about losing Derrick Henry, but we saw they just won 28-16 last week at the Rams in a prime time game. I also don't know that this Saints defense is as good as people are making it out to be. They didn't look elite in last week's home game against the Falcons. The other big thing that I think people overlook with the Titans is their defense. This team has went from being viewed as one of the worst defenses in the league to playing as well as any team on that side of the ball. You can't run the ball on them and they got guys who can get after the QB. I just don't see Siemian and the Saints offense being able to do enough to win on the road, which is basically what they would have to do to cover a number like this. Give me the Titans -2.5! |
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11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins +7.5 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Dolphins +7.5) I know I'm going to be in the minority here, especially in the eyes of the public, but I like the Dolphins as a home dog against the Ravens on Thursday Night Football. I don't really care if it's Tua Tagovailoa or Jacoby Brissett, I think this Miami offense can move the ball on what I think is an overrated Baltimore defense. I think a lot of people would be surprised by just how bad the numbers are for the Ravens defense. Baltimore is giving up 374 ypg, which is only slightly better than the 392 that the Dolphins give up. The more staggering stat is that they are giving up 6.5 yards/play, which I care about a lot more than yards/game. Just to compare, Miami is only giving up 5.9 yards/play and that drops to 5.3 yards/play at home. The other thing for me is the spot. Baltimore just finished up playing 4 straight games at home with a thrilling 34-31 OT win against the Vikings, where they trailed 17-3 early and 24-10 in the 2nd half. It would not shock me at all on a short week if the Ravens went down to warm Miami against a bad Dolphins team and laid an egg. The other thing with Miami is they have been closer to winning than what people give them credit for. Prior to their win over the Texans, they only trailed the Bills 10-3 going into the 4th quarter, lost by just 2 to a Falcons team that has taken off, by just 3 in London to the Jags, by 10 to the Colts and by 3 to the Raiders. I don't know if they can win this game, but 7.5 is too good a price to pass up. Give me the Dolphins +7.5! |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers -7 | 27-29 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Steelers/Bears MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Steelers -7) I'm going to lay the 7-points with Pittsburgh in this one. I just don't trust this Bears team at all. The are extremely limited offensively and the defense is missing two of their best players in linebacker Khalil Mack and safety Eddie Jackson. Mack didn't play at all in their last game against the 49ers and Jackson left on the second play from scrimmage. Without those two, San Francisco's limited offense was able to put up 33 points and 467 total yards. It's why I feel pretty good hear about the Steelers being able to do some things offensively. On the flip side of the ball, I just don't think Justin Fields is there. I know he played better in the loss to the 49ers, but most of the damage he did was on the ground. There's just zero threat of a passing game. I just think this Steelers defense is going to be able to take the run away and I don't know what Chicago can do to stay on the field. I see something along a 24-10 type of game. Give me the Steelers -7! |
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11-07-21 | Titans +7.5 v. Rams | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 76 h 47 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sunday Night Football NO-BRAINER (Titans +7.5) I'll take my chances with the Titans as a 7.5-point dog against the Rams on Sunday Night Football. I think the perception with Tennessee is that they are going to fall flat on their face without Derrick Henry at running back. I'm not saying it's not a big blow to this team, but I think we are definitely seeing a big overreaction with this line because of Henry's absence. I think Adrian Peterson is going to surprise some people with how well he plays. People forget how good this guy was last year on a bad Lions team. Tennessee is also not all run. They can beat you with the passing game with Ryan Tannehill. A.J. Brown has also really picked up his game of late. In his last 3 games, he's got 25 passes for 379 yards (had 10 catches for 130 yards in the previous 4 games). This is also not the same elite defense for the Rams that we saw a year ago. Not to say they aren't an above average unit on that side of the ball, they just don't look to be on par to last year and some of that is definitely losing their defensive coordinator. Also, Keep in mind that 5 of their 8 opponents have been some bad offensive teams in the Colts, Bears, Giants, Lions and Texans. Give me the Texans +7.5! |
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11-07-21 | Packers +7.5 v. Chiefs | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 72 h 58 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Packers +7.5) I will gladly take my chances with the Packers as a 7.5-point dog against the Chiefs. Not having Aaron Rodgers is a big blow to Green Bay's chances of winning this game, but that's not to say the Packers can't win this game with Jordan Love at quarterback. Kansas City has shown nothing to this point of the season to make me think they can blow out a team like Green Bay. Daniel Jones and the Giants almost beat KC last week in a prime time game and that was one the Chiefs had to have. Everyone just wants to assume that Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs team is going to flip a switch and just go right back to being the same team that made it to back-to-back Super Bowls. I just don't see it. Mahomes is not right. He's not seeing the field well at all and to me it looks like he's playing way to fast and not letting it come to him. He's trying to be the hero on every play. You also got to looks at this Chiefs defense. They have played better of late, but they are still one of the worst teams in the league on that side of the ball. Green Bay should be able to use their running game to really make the game easy for Love. I would not be shocked at all if Love came out and played well. I think KC wins the game, but I think this going to be a 1-score game in the 4th quarter that could go either way. Give me the Packers +7.5! |
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11-07-21 | Cardinals v. 49ers | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 114 h 43 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - NFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH (49ers PK) I love the 49ers at a pick'em at home against the Cardinals. San Francisco really should have beat Arizona in the first meeting. A game they lost 10-17. They did that with rookie backup Trey Lance at quarterback and it's clear that Lance is not ready for this stage. This time they will have Jimmy G under center and that's a huge upgrade at the biggest position on the field. On the flip side of this, I think there's a decent chance here that the Cardinals will be without their starting quarterback in Kyler Murray. He's questionable with an ankle injury and was very limited in practice this week. Without Murray I think Arizona would be around a .500 team, as he's had to do so much for this offense. Even if he plays, he doesn't figure to be 100% and will certainly not be looking to run the ball, which is arguably what makes him so special. This is a statement game for the 49ers, who really have to win this one to have any shot at making the playoffs. Give me San Francisco PK! |
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11-07-21 | Chargers -1 v. Eagles | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 113 h 25 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Chargers -1) I'm shocked the Chargers are only a 1-point favorite at the Eagles in Week 9. It almost makes me wonder if there's some covid problems or something we don't know about with LA. Unfortunately you just can't handicap that and I just can't pass up on this line. I'm not sure why the Eagles are getting this much respect from the books. Sure they looked great in last week's 44-6 win over the Lions, but I loved Philly in that game. They were laying just 3.5 on the road vs an awful Detroit team that was in a massive letdown spot. The Lions were coming off a devastating 19-28 loss at the Rams. A game they led 19-17 going into the 4th quarter. Losing how they did definitely played into the bad spot, but it was also the emotional letdown from playing as hard as they could for Goff in his first game vs his former team. The other two wins for Philly are a 21-18 road win against a struggling Panthers team and a Week 1 win over the Falcons. We saw them lose 21-41 at Dallas, 30-42 at home to the Chiefs and 22-28 at home to the Bucs. In those 3 games the Eagles defense gave up an average of 416.7 ypg. I got some concerns with the Chargers defense, but there's no reason I can find that would make me think Justin Herbert and that LA offense won't have their way on Sunday. I do get the Eagles are a good running team and the Chargers have not been good vs the run, but I don't think it's bad enough that Philly is going to be able to keep pace offensively in this game. Another thing with Philly's run game is they lost their top back in Miles Sanders before that Lions game. Something I don't think that's getting much attention because the Eagles just had 236 rushing yards in that win over the Lions. I really think LA should be at least a field goal favorite here. Give me the Chargers -1! |
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11-07-21 | Raiders v. Giants +3 | 16-23 | Win | 108 | 69 h 33 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Giants +3) I will take my chances with the Giants as a 3-point home dog against the Raiders. I've really liked what I've seen out of this Giants team the past couple of weeks. They had dominating 25-3 win over the Panthers as a 3-point home dog in Week 7 and then went on the road and gave the Chiefs all they could handle in a 17-20 loss on Monday Night Football. The offense still has a ways to go, but that defense has really impressed me. They held the Panthers to a mere 173 total yards and then only gave up 368 to Mahomes and the Chiefs. A game no one wants to give them any credit for. All everyone wants to talk about is how bad KC is playing. On the flip side of this, I really have a hard time seeing Las Vegas showing up and playing well in this game given what's happened to their young star wide out Henry Ruggs III. For those that don't know, Ruggs III drove drunk and killed somebody this past week and will be spending the next 10 years or so in prison. Ruggs currently leads LV in receiving with 469 yards and was averaging a team-best 19.5 yards/reception. Not having that big play guy is going to make it that much harder on Carr and this offense. It's also nothing like when they came out fired out with something to prove after Gruden was fired. Focusing on football will be really hard for this Raiders team not just this week but the rest of the season. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Giants didn't win this game in a blowout. Give me New York +3! |
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11-07-21 | Vikings +6.5 v. Ravens | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 69 h 31 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS MASSACRE (Vikings +6.5) I just think there's too much value to pass up a play on the Vikings as a 6.5-point dog against the Ravens. A lot of people were burned by Minnesota in last week's loss to the Cowboys, as everyone was on them with the Cowboys playing without Prescott. Not only did the Vikings not cover, they lost the game outright. I also think people are drawn to bet Baltimore with the Ravens coming off their bye week. Having the extra rest is nice and all, but the number here has been inflated because of it. I also think there's this perception that the Ravens are this elite team, when they haven't really played like one. Baltimore's 5-2 record looks great, but they could very easily be 2-5. They trailed 17-28 in the 4th quarter of a 36-35 win over the Chiefs, needed an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired to beat the Lions 19-17 and somehow beat the Colts 31-25 in OT after trailing 25-9 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. The offensive line has been decimated with injuries. Lamar Jackson has been sacked 3 or more times in 5 of their 7 games. The defense is also not what we are use to seeing. The biggest weakness being their secondary. If they can just give Kirk Cousins a little bit of time in the pocket, he's going to have a huge game here. Either way, I see this as a one score game in the 4th quarter, making it an easy play on Minnesota. Give me the Vikings +6.5! |
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11-07-21 | Browns v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 26 m | Show |
50* (NFL) AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals -2.5) I love the Bengals as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Browns. I just think we are getting an exceptional price here with Cincinnati after last week's shocking 31-34 loss at the Jets as a 11.5-point favorite. What a lot of people overlooked in that game against the Jets, is that was about as tough as spot as you will find. Cincinnati was coming off an emotional statement win on the road against the Bengals and were playing their 3rd straight road game, which is historically a spot where even the best teams struggle to play well. Add in this big game against Cleveland looming and it's no surprise they didn't show up with their best effort. As difficult as it is, you just got to throw that performance out and look at what this team was in the weeks prior. And that's a Bengals team that was playing as well as any team in the league. Offensively they got something special going with their combo of second year quarterback Joe Burrow and rookie wide out Chase. Defensively this is a team that had not allowed more than 25 in any game before giving up 34 to the Jets. On the flip side, this Browns team is trending in the wrong direction. Baker Mayfield is just not playing good football and even with a great running game, they struggle to score. Cleveland has scored 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games. I just think it's asking a lot for the Browns to go on the road and win this game, which is basically what you are saying will happen if you take the 2.5. Give me the Bengals -2.5! |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts -10 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Jets/Colts TNF VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -10) I'm shocked we have seen this much overreaction from last week. The lookahead on this game was around the Colts -14 and we are getting them at -10. Everyone is jumping on the Mike White bandwagon after his 400+ yard performance in his first ever start last week against the Bengals. I just think that big game by White was more a culprit of the Bengals just not showing up to play after such a big game the previous week against Baltimore and it being their 3rd straight road game. Not to mention the Jets had just lost 13-54 the previous week to the Pats. I just think if White was as good as he looked in that start, he would have somehow forced his way onto the field before now. Guy was drafted back in 2018. I also think there's a narrative out there that with the Colts heartbreaking 31-34 OT loss last week to the Titans their season is now over with them sitting at just 3-5 and and essentially 4-games back of Tennessee in the AFC South. No questions is a much bigger uphill climb after losing that game, but I'm not buying at all that this team is going to just throw in the towel with more than half of the schedule still to play. I like the Colts to win here and win going away. Give me Indianapolis -10! |
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10-31-21 | Patriots +4.5 v. Chargers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Afternoon ATS ANNIHILATOR (Patriots +4.5) We may have missed the best number, but I still see more than enough value with the Pats at +4.5 to back them. I think a lot of people have really fallen in love with this Chargers team and at the same time don't trust this New England team. The Pats are just 3-4 going into Week 8 with two of their wins coming against the Jets and the other against the Texans. With that said, they are dangerously close to being 6-1. They had 1st and 10 at the Dolphins 11 yard line down 16-17 and fumbled the ball with just minutes to play. They were a missed 56 yard FG away from being up 20-19 on TB with less than a minute to play. They were up 21-20 on Dallas with the ball and 2:34 on the clock and threw a pick-six. They get a 75-yard TD on their next series to lead 29-26, only to let the Cowboys get a FG and then go on to lose in OT. Even in their 28-13 loss to the Saints they outgained NO 300-252. As for the Chargers, they are a good team, but I don't think they are as good as what people think. They were lucky to win that game at KC in Week 3 and somehow they get that 47-42 win over the Browns after trailing by 14 in the 2nd half. The biggest thing that gets overlooked with LA is their defense and the inability it has at stopping the run. No body is better at exploiting a team's weakness than Belichick and there is a massive mismatch in this game in favor of the Pat's O-line and the Chargers defensive front (the front 7 for LA is awful outside of Bosa). I also like Belichick and his defense to make things a little difficult on Justin Herbert. If you remember last year when these two teams played, Herbert was a mere 26 of 53 for 209 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs in a 45-0 Pats win. Give me New England +4.5! |
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10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 55 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Seahawks -3) Maybe I'm not giving this Jags team enough respect, but I think this is the perfect buy low spot on the Seahawks. Everyone has kind of written off Seattle, at least until they get Russell Wilson back at quarterback. It's going to be an uphill climb, but the Seahawks aren't out of the playoff picture just yet. You have to believe we are going to get their best effort in this game. They have to beat Jacksonville or their season is over. Geno Smith isn't Russell Wilson, but there's a lot worst backup QBs in this league. He hasn't done anything special, but in the 3 games (2 starts) he's been up against some pretty good defenses, at least in being able to pressure the QB, in the Rams, Steelers and Saints. This Jacksonville defense is giving up 28.7 ppg, 412 ypg and 6.5 yards/play. Yes the Jags are off a bye, but outside of beating a bad Dolphins team in London a couple weeks ago, what has this team done to make you think they can across the country to one of the toughest places in the NFL to play and get a win (that's basically what you are saying if you take the +3). Not to mention, they got to do that with a head coach in Urban Meyer who is clueless to how this all works at the NFL level. Give me the Seahawks -3! |
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10-31-21 | Steelers v. Browns -3.5 | 15-10 | Loss | -102 | 95 h 37 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Browns -3.5) I'm going to take the Cleveland Browns as a -3.5 point home favorite against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I just feel like the number here is way too low. I just think all the questions around this Browns team with their lengthy injury report and how much the offensive struggled in last week's game against the Broncos, has Cleveland way undervalued going into this matchup. There's no definite word out there on Browns starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, but when he was asked this week about his non throwing shoulder, he said it was feeling a lot better and there's absolutely a chance he plays. Even if he doesn't play, I don't feel the drop off to backup Case Keenum is all that much. Keenum didn't wow us in his start vs Denver, but he wasn't horrible. Most importantly he took care of the football with no turnovers. Cleveland is also optimistic that they will have stud running back Nick Chubb back, though I don't think they are in terrible hands if they have to go with D'Ernest Johnson after watching how hard this guy ran it last week. Johnson carried it 22 times for 146 yards and the Broncos couldn't stop him knowing he was getting the ball. I just think that regardless if Mayfield and Chubb suit up, this Browns team will be able to do some things offensively at home against this Steelers defense. Everyone loves to praise this Pittsburgh defense, but it's not been as elite as what people think. They are giving up 5.8 yards/play and facing a Browns offense that averages 6.3 yards/play. They are also middle of the back vs the run, giving up 4.2 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, I don't trust Ben Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense to do anything against this Browns defense. Pittsburgh only averages 5.3 yards/play and that drops to 4.9 yards/play on the road. Cleveland only gives up 5.3 yards/play and a mere 4.5 yards/play at home. I just think the Browns have the edge on both sides of the ball in this game and this line should be closer to a touchdown than a field goal. Keep in mind the Steelers were a 6.5-point dog at Buffalo and 6-point dog at Green Bay. Two teams I rate very closely to Cleveland at this point in the season. Give me the Browns -3.5! |
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10-31-21 | Eagles -3.5 v. Lions | 44-6 | Win | 100 | 68 h 51 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Eagles -3.5) I really like the Eagles at this price and I love the situation that this game falls in. Every one has thrown Philadelphia under the bus after their 2-5 start. So much so that the betting public is wanting to play the Lions in this game as a mere 3.5-point dog. The one thing that people can use to convince themselves that Detroit is the play, is the fact that the Lions play hard and it's got them to keep some games closer than expected. I think in any sport, bad teams who play hard can do that, largely because the opponent doesn't bring their 'A' game against them. I got to believe that even at 2-5, the Eagles aren't quite to the breaking point of giving up on their season. While the top 5 teams all look great in the NFC, it's really a mixed bag after that. It's anyone's game for those final two wild card spots. I just think if the Eagles come to play, they can not only win this game, but win it going away. Keep in mind the Eagles have just gone through a pretty brutal stretch in their schedule playing @ Dallas, home vs KC, @ Carolina, home vs TB and @ Las Vegas. I also wonder just how much fight the Lions are going to have this week. Detroit just put everything they had into beating the Rams last week, as they really wanted to get Goff a win vs his old team. Give me the Eagles -3.5! |
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10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks +4 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
40* (NF) - Saints/Seahawks MNF Vegas Insider (Seahawks +4) I like the Seahawks as a 4-point home dog against the Saints on Monday Night Football. I just don't think New Orleans should be favored by more than a field goal in this game. Seattle is just getting way undervalued right now because of the injury to Russell Wilson. We saw it last week in prime time, as the Seahawks went off as a 5.5-point dog at Pittsburgh. They wound up losing the game, but covered in a 20-23 defeat. A game they were only outgained 309 to 345. I just don't see a lot of difference in the Steelers and the Saints. Both of those teams have not looked very good offensively and both rely a ton on their defense. I know the Seattle defense isn't great, but the biggest thing they have struggled with is stopping teams that can throw the ball efficiently. That's not the strength of this Saints offense. The most yards New Orleans has had passing in any game was 271 and that was against the Football Team. They have had 235 or fewer in every other game. The weather should also help the Seahawks defense, as it's expected to be an awful night in Seattle with a near 100% chance of rain and winds pushing 20 mph. I think Geno Smith can do enough in what probably ends up being a very low scoring game to keep Seattle within a field goal and I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. Give me the Seahawks +4! |
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10-24-21 | Bears +13 v. Bucs | 3-38 | Loss | -118 | 72 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bears +13) I will gladly take my chances with the Bears as a 13-point road dog against the Bucs. We saw it last year with the Chiefs after their SB win, the books just got tired of people winning money on them and they started to inflate their spreads by what felt like more than a FG per game. I think we are seeing the same thing with Tampa Bay this year. The Bucs are just 2-4 ATS to start the year and both of their covers were a bit fortunate. They won 48-25 against the Falcons as a 13-point favorite after going into the 4th quarter leading by a score of just 28-25. They also covered double-digits against the Dolphins where they only led 24-17 going into the 4th quarter. Chicago isn't a great team, but they are a heck of a lot better than the Falcons and Dolphins, yet they are being priced the same. I know Fields hasn't been the guy we thought we were going to get after his great preseason performances, but some of that in my opinion is coaching. While I'm not banking on anything, I do think there's reason to be optimistic he can get something going against this banged up Bucs secondary. The other big thing for me, is I think Chicago's got a very underrated defense. Since giving up 34 in their opener to the Rams, they haven't allowed more than 30 in their last 5 games. Last week they held Green Bay to just 24 points and Aaron Rodgers and that Packers pass attack had just 169 thru the air. Tom Brady is great, but he is going to have to make it work in this game without two of his best options in tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide out Antonio Brown. Give me the Bears +13! |
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10-24-21 | Panthers -3 v. Giants | 3-25 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 10 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Panthers -3) I'm going to take the Carolina Panthers as a 3-point road favorite against the New York Giants in Week 7 of the NFL. Even after that tough loss we took with the Panthers in last week's OT loss at home to the Vikings, I'm not going to let that deter me from backing this team laying just a field goal against a bad Giants team that appears to be getting worse and worse as the season progresses. I know this is going to be a big public play with everyone looking to fade the Giants right now, but we have seen a number of these short road favorites cover in recent weeks. I just think more than anything, we are getting value with the Panthers because of the fact that they come into this game having lost and failed to cover in each of their last 3 games. Sam Darnold has been a big reason why Carolina has seen their season to a complete 180 flip after their 3-0 start. After throwing just 1 interception in that perfect 3-0 start to the season, Darnold has thrown 6 picks in the last 3 games. Panthers head coach Matt Rhule appears to have had enough of trying to let the offense rely on the arm of Darnold. After the loss to the Vikings, Rhule came out and said the offense is going to have a vastly different look and is going to focus everything around the run game. It's up in the air if this plan of attack can work long-term without Christian McCaffrey as the lead back, but I do think it's the right game plan against the Giants. In New York's last 3 games, they have allowed an average of 167.3 rushing yards/game. I also think you got to look at how much the Giants offense is struggling to score. New York can't run the ball and Daniel Jones looks to be in over his head with all the injuries the Giants have around him on offense. Highly unlikely that Saquon Barkley will be back for this game, they also figure to be missing talented rookie wide out Kadarius Toney. Two other wide outs, Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton are also both question. It's not just the skill players, they just lost starting left tackle Andrew Thomas and are now down three of their Week 1 starters on the offensive line, as starting guard Shane Lemieux and center Nick Gates are likely out for the year. This just feels to me like the perfect get right spot for Carolina and we are getting them at quite the discount. Give me the Panthers -3! |
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10-24-21 | Jets v. Patriots -6.5 | 13-54 | Win | 100 | 68 h 15 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Patriots -6.5) I was considering the Pats at -7, but was hoping this thing would drop to 6.5 at some point during the week and it did. I just think that because the Patriots come into this game at 2-4 there's value on them right now. NE has not been as bad as their record. The only game they lost that they didn't have a legit shot at winning is their Week 3 game against the Saints. They lost by 1-point against the Dolphins where they fumbled the game away, lost by 2 at home to the Bucs where they missed a late FG and just lost 29-35 at home in OT to the Cowboys. One of their two wins came against these Jets, which they won going away 25-6. As he often does, Bill Belichick devised a game plan that made life miserable for a rookie quarterback. Zach Wilson completed just 19 of 33 attempts for 210 yards and 0 TD passes to 4 interceptions. It's not going to be any easier the second time around, especially on the road against a Pats team that will be all in to get back in the win column this week. Give me the Patriots -6.5! |
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10-24-21 | Bengals +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 68 h 16 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Bengals/Ravens AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals +6.5) I think we are getting a gift here with Cincinnati catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Ravens. I just think when a team everyone expects to be good backs it up with their record, they really become a public play. That definitely feels like the case with Baltimore, who are 5-1 and own the best record in the AFC. This is a good Ravens team. However, they are very lucky to be 5-1. If the Chiefs don't fumble in the final minutes, they are going to have a chip shot field goal to win that game. Baltimore also needed the longest field goal in NFL history to beat the Lions and trailed 25-9 in the 2nd half of a 31-25 OT win against the Colts at home. On the flip side of things, Cincinnati comes in at 4-2 and are one of the big surprises early on this season. I just don't think the Bengals hot start is a fluke. They have a great quarterback in Joe Burrow, who is on the verge of being an elite starter in this league. They also got a very underrated defense. Cincinnati isn't just good enough to keep this game within a TD, they can definitely win this game outright. This line to me should be more like Baltimore -3. You don't get this much value in the NFL often. Give me the Bengals +6.5! |
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10-18-21 | Bills -6 v. Titans | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Bills/Titans MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Bills -6) I'll be the first to admit that I thought Buffalo wasn't as good as everyone was saying coming into the 2021 season. I was wrong. The Bills not only look like the best team in the AFC, but maybe the best team in the league. I know the Cardinals hold that claim after their 6-0 start, but let's forget the Bills only loss of the season came in Week 1, where they fell 16-23 at home to the Steelers. A loss is a loss, but it didn't feel like Pittsburgh was the better team on that day. Buffalo was up 10-0 at the half with the Steelers doing next to nothing on offense. They were still up 10-6 in the 4th quarter before they turned it over on downs, which led to a short field and a field goal. Next time they have the ball they get a punt blocked that was returned for a TD. Since that loss the Bills have demolished every team that has got in their way, outscoring opponents in their 4-game win streak 39.0 to 10.3! That includes last week's 38-20 beatdown of the Chiefs on the road. *The only thing that scares me is the Bills having a letdown after that win over KC. It clearly was a game that meant a lot to them after the Chiefs knocked beat them in last year's AFC Championship Game. There is reason to believe that Buffalo will show up. One, it's Monday Night Football with all the eyes on you. The other is revenge. Last year, the Bills had their 4-0 start to the season put to an end in an embarrassing 42-16 loss at Tennessee. A game many of you will remember had that epic stiff arm by Henry against Josh Norman. Henry is always scary to bet against, as he just take over a game, but I'm just not sold on this Titans team. They have a MASSIVE list of injuries and their 3 wins were against the Seahawks, Colts and Jags. They got destroyed Week 1 at home by the Cardinals 38-13 and have that shocking lost to the Jets back in Week 4. Give me the Bills -6! |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks +5 v. Steelers | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 94 h 59 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Seahawks/Steelers SNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Seahawks +5) I absolutely love the Seahawks as a 5-point rod dog against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Everyone is writing off Seattle after the injury to Russell Wilson. The betting public is going to want absolutely nothing to do with betting this team, even against an uninspiring Steelers team. I'm not going to sit here and say that backup Geno Smith is anywhere close to as good as Wilson, but there's a lot to like about how well Smith played in relief of Wilson against the Rams last week. He should be even better with a full week of prep. You also got to factor in how tough it can be for a team like Pittsburgh to win by a touchdown with how much they struggle to score on the offensive side of the ball. Pittsburgh comes in averaging just 18.8 ppg. The only teams with a worse scoring offense are the Jets, Dolphins, Bears, Texans and Jaguars. It's also an offense that is without their top wide out JuJu Smith-Schuster and has a couple of other wide outs in Chase Claypool and James Washington listed as questionable. Pittsburgh's also got a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line and at linebacker. Give me the Seahawks +5! |
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10-17-21 | Raiders v. Broncos -3.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -101 | 90 h 7 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (Broncos -3.5) I'll lay the 3.5 with Denver at home against the Raiders on Sunday. I just think this Las Vegas team is in a really bad place with what's transpired over the last week with watching their head coach Jon Gruden basically be forced into resigning. It's just a bad situation for a team that came into this season with expectations of at least making the playoffs. We have seen the offense take a massive step back the last couple of weeks and now they have to try to figure out on the fly how to go forward without their play caller in Gruden. Say what you want about Gruden as a head coach, the guy is a good offensive play caller. Making matters even worse is the Raiders are going up against a pretty good Broncos defense. Now you can't get too carried away with the numbers given who Denver has played, but you also can't ignore the fact that they are 3rd in the NFL right now giving up just 292.4 ypg. They also rank in the Top 10 in the NFL vs both the run and the pass. I can assure you that the Broncos will not in the least bit feel bad about beating up on the Raiders when they are down. These two teams despise each other. I'm not wild about the Denver offense, but I would much rather have the Broncos offense than the Raiders defense. Denver should do more than enough to get the win and cover at home. Give me the Broncos -3.5! |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR (Browns -2.5) I think we are getting a gift here with Cleveland laying less than a field goal at home against the Cardinals. Arizona might be the only team left in the NFL with an undefeated record, but they are nowhere close to the best team in the league. They should have lost to the Vikings at home in Week 2, caught the Rams in a massive letdown spot off their big win over Tom Brady and the Bucs and likely lose last week to the 49ers if San Francisco has Jimmy G at quarterback. I think if Arizona is simply 4-1 instead of 5-0, they wouldn't be getting near the respect they are getting in this game. I I was on the Browns in last week’s brutal loss at the Chargers where they dominated LA for over half of that game. If anything that loss makes me like Cleveland even more in this spot, as they are going to be highly motivated to rebound at home. I also like the matchup. I think the biggest thing you got to look at with the Browns is whether or not the opposing team can stop the run. Arizona has struggled in that area of the game, Cardinals rank 28th against the run giving up 139.0 ypg and are giving up 5.4 yards/carry, which ranks 31st in the league. I also still think this Browns defense is one of the better units in the league and are well suited to slow down Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense. You also have to keep in mind that Murray is dealing with an arm injury. He did not look like his old self in last week's game against the 49ers and they need him to be great to even have a shot in this game. Give me Cleveland -2.5! |
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10-17-21 | Vikings v. Panthers +1 | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 95 h 47 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER (Panthers +1) I'm going to take the Carolina Panthers as a 1-point home dog against the Minnesota Vikings. I think we are seeing some value with Carolina, as I think they should be -2.5 at home. Big reason I think we are getting value with the Panthers is last week's horrific 2nd half against the Eagles. Carolina couldn't have looked any better in the 1st half of that game. If they just have a little bit of ball skills on that fumble they botched in the end zone, they probably win that game and cover. Instead it was just a safety and the offense fell apart in the 2nd half. I think losing that game and Sam Darnold kind of reverting back to his old ways with the Jets has really reversed how people view this team. They no longer see them as a legit playoff contender. I think that's a mistake and I think the Panthers respond in a big way. I really don't have a lot of concerns with the Carolina defense. They did their part once again, holding the Eagles to just 273 total yards and dominating the time of possession by more than 10 minutes. Offensively, Darnold isn't as bad as what he showed in the 2nd half of that game against the Eagles and let's not forget the Panthers offense was without their best player in Christian McCaffrey. He was close to returning for that game and as long as there are no setbacks in practice, he will be on the field Sunday. As for the Vikings, I just don't think there as good as what people think. Sure they have had a couple close games not go their way, but the fact of the matter is this team continues to find ways to lose games. They needed a last second field goal after blowing a 16-6 lead in the final 5 minutes against the winless Lions at home. That comes after a week where the offense couldn't do anything at home against the Browns. Vikings are just 3-7 ATS last 10 off a home win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a close win by 6 points or less. Panthers have covered 10 of their last 15 with a line of +3 to -3 and are 5-1 ATS last 3 years off a upset loss as a home favorite. Give me Carolina +1! |
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10-17-21 | Packers -4 v. Bears | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 87 h 51 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Big Money VEGAS INSIDER (Packers -4) I can't help myself here but to lay the 4-points on the road with the Packers. I know it's not wise to lay points on the road in division games, but I just don't see these two teams being anywhere close in terms of talent. I could be dead wrong here, but I got a pretty good feeling that the Bears holding the Raiders to just 9 points and 252 total yards last week was more a result of the news surrounding Gruden than it was this Chicago defense. I also think with the Bears defense, they are much better suited to stop teams that want to run the ball. They just don't have that great of talent in the secondary and are tasked in this game with going up against one of the best QBs in the league in Aaron Rodgers. I know Green Bay isn't exactly blowing teams out, but I've really liked what I've seen out of Aaron Rodgers early on. He looks to be 100% locked in and when he's going well this team is tough to beat. You also have to factor in just how bad this Bears offense has been since Justin Fields became the starter. It's a bit comical how scared Chicago is of letting Fields throw the ball. How in the world is he going to do enough here to keep pace with Rodgers and that Packers offense? I don't see it. Give me Green Bay -4! |
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10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 49 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Bills/Chiefs SNF PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -2.5) I can't believe we are getting the Chiefs at less than a field goal at home on Monday Night Football. I know there's a lot of people concerned with what they have seen out of KC so far, especially on the defensive side of the ball. As bad as the defense has been and it's been downright awful, the Chiefs are a couple plays away from being 4-0 and it's not like they have played a cupcake schedule. That defense could be getting back one of their top pass rushers in Frank Clark and all signs point to linebacker Willie Gay making his first start after starting the season on IR with a toe injury. Gay is a guy that I think can really have an impact. Clark can too, but you never know what you are going to get from him. Gay has great sideline to sideline speed and should help a lot against the run. He's also the guy that was suppose to have the green dot on his helmet. No question there's been a lack of communication on that side without him. I also think the defense has been so bad, it has people overlooking just how good the offense has been. KC has had the fewest amount of drives of any team in the league and are T-2nd in scoring at 33.5 ppg. It's only going to get better. They got 3 talented rookie offensive linemen and 5 all new starters on the o-line. That unit is going to just get better and better as they play more together. The Chiefs also added Josh Gordon. Not much has been made of this. Probably because no one thinks Gordon will last long, but he came in to the team in INCREDIBLE shape and has already formed a chemistry with Mahomes. One last thing on the Bills. This Chiefs defense is built to play from ahead and are much better suited to defend the pass than they are the run. I'm not saying they are a great pass defense, but they can get some stops if teams try to attack them thru the air. All Buffalo wants to do is throw the football. I think it's why it's been a really tough matchup for them. Give me the Chiefs -2.5! |
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10-10-21 | Broncos v. Steelers -1 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 95 h 40 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Steelers -1) Not only is Denver a team that I think is overrated, I also feel like we are in a great buy low spot with the Steelers. Pittsburgh might not be a playoff team, but they aren't as bad as what the media is making them out to be. There's clearly concern with Big Ben and that Steelers offense, but we know they got a defense that carry them if they just get a few kinks worked out. I think Pittsburgh defense is going to dominate this game right from the start. It doesn't really matter to me if it's Bridgewater or Drew Lock. Denver is down big at wide receiver with KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy both on IR. Those were their two speed threats that could really stretch the defense. They also are hurting on the o-line. Both starting guards are questionable to play. If that unit thought it was tough slowing down that Ravens pass rush, they are in big trouble here against T.J. Watt and the Steelers front. The other big thing you have to keep in mind with this Steelers defense is they have faced 4 of the better QBs in the league in Josh Allen, Derek Carr, Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers. The injuries are also starting to mount up on defense. The most recent being stud rookie corner Pat Surtain II, who left their last game with a chest injury. Denver's already without one of their top corners in Ronald Darby, as well as pass rusher Bradley Chubb and linebacker Josey Jewel. It's also worth noting that backup linebackers Andre Mintz and Baron Browning are both questionable. They already got 4 guys at linebacker on IR. They are really on thin ice at this position. I'm not expecting a ton out of Big Ben and that Steelers offense, but they should benefit in this game from great field position. I think they do more than enough to win this game. Give me Pittsburgh -1! |
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10-10-21 | Eagles v. Panthers -3.5 | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 23 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Eagles/Panthers NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers -3.5) I love the Panthers as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Eagles. I've been on this Carolina team quite a bit early in the year and they have got off to a great start at 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS. They did fail to cover last week on the road in a 28-36 loss to Dallas, but that's nothing to change how you view this Panthers team. I really think Carolina is a playoff team, especially with what they have done to sure up that secondary. The Eagles aren't close to being a playoff team. They are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS with their only win and cover coming in a Week 1 win over a bad Falcons team. Jalen Hurts has been impressive at times, but they get no production out of their backs and their weapons at receiver aren't great. The defense also has holes all over it. Panthers have an elite defense and a much-improved offense under former Jets quarterback Sam Darnold. Would love it if McCaffrey played, but they don't need him to move the ball against this Eagles team. Give me Carolina -3.5! |
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10-07-21 | Rams -1.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 45 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Rams/Seahawks TNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Rams -1.5) I will take my chances here with the Rams laying less than a field goal on the road against the Seahawks. I played and lost with the Rams last week, as they got embarrassed on their home field by the Cardinals. Turns out the bounce back from that emotional win over the Bucs was a little tougher than anticipated. I think there can be some value with teams the game after a letdown spot. Not only are we not going to get as inflated a number to bet into, we should also get a max effort from that team. That's really the handicap for me here, because I don't think it's close in terms of talent when you look up and down the roster of these two teams. Seattle's got a great offense led by Russell Wilson, but their defense is as bad as it gets. Everyone keeps talking about how bad the Chiefs defense has been. Yet it's the Seahawks who are giving up a league worst 444.5 ypg. A pretty staggering number when you consider they have exactly went up against an elite offense. Their 4 games have been against the Colts, Titans, Vikings and 49ers. Just to compare, the Chiefs have at least been bad against good offenses, as they have faced the Ravens, Browns, Chargers and Eagles. I think it's pretty safe to say the Rams have an elite offense with Matthew Stafford and it's without question the best offense and quarterback Seattle will have seen so far this year. I just don't see Wilson and that Seahawks offense being able to go score for score with Stafford and the Rams in this one. Give me the Rams -1.5! |
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10-03-21 | Ravens +1 v. Broncos | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 99 h 9 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Situational No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR (Ravens +1) I will gladly take my chances with the Ravens as a road dog against the Broncos. Baltimore was laying more than a field goal in this game before the season started and has completely flipped to the other side, where Denver is a slim 1-point favorite. I'll be the first two admit last week's bet against the Broncos with the Jets was terrible. However, I don't think my mistake was undervaluing Denver. I just put too much faith into that Jets offense. Think about this, the Broncos 3 games this season have seen their defense have to defend Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson. Now they have to face one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league in Lamar Jackson. Now I know the Ravens weren't exactly world beaters last week in their crazy 19-17 win over the Lions, where they won the game on a record-setting field goal at the buzzer. However, that was a spot where you would expect Baltimore to not have their best coming off an emotional and thrilling 36-35 win over the Chiefs on SNF the week before. The Broncos being undefeated will more than be enough to get the attention of Baltimore in this game. Not only do I think Denver is a bit overvalued because of their schedule, but the injuries are starting to pile up. Two of their top options at receiver on IR with Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. They also could be down both starting offensive guards with Glasgow doubtful and Risner questionable. Defensively they have 3 more key guys on IR in linebackers Bradley Chubb and Josey Jewell and corner Ronald Darby. Give me the Ravens +1! |
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10-03-21 | Steelers +6.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 7 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH (Steelers +6.5) I think we are getting some exceptional value here with Pittsburgh catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Packers. Everyone has written off the Steelers after back-to-back ugly home losses to the Raiders and Bengals. It's almost like their Week 1 23-16 win at Buffalo as a 6.5-point dog doesn't exist. There's not many teams I feel better about backing with their backs against the wall as a dog than the Steelers. Pittsburgh is an impressive 37-22 ATS when listed as an underdog since Tomlin took over as head coach and are 28-17 ATS when they are a road dog. Steelers are also 17-6 ATS in their last 23 off a loss by 10 or more to a division rival. Aside from how good Pittsburgh has been in this spot historically, I also think this is a good spot here to bet against Green Bay off their thrilling win at San Francisco on Sunday Night Football in Week 3. I'm also not completely sold on this Packers offense. They have not ran the ball well at all, 80 ypg and just 3.4 yards/carry and have not had more than 255 yards passing in any game. I also think you got to keep in mind they just played two awful secondaries in Detroit and San Francisco. This Steelers defense is no joke and are starting to get back to full strength on that side of the ball. I think their ability to defend the pass and put pressure on the QB is going to be huge in this game. I also think they will be able to slow down the Rodgers to Adams connection. Much like we saw in Week 1, when the Saints held Adams to just 5 catches for 56 yards. Adding to this, Pittsburgh is 68-33 (67.3%) ATS last 101 times they have faced a team that averages more than 7 passing yards/attempt. Give me the Steelers +6.5! |
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10-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rams -4 | 37-20 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 48 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Smart Money PLAY OF THE WEEK (Rams -4) I might be walking right into a trap here with the Rams, but there's just no scenario right now that I'm not laying a mere 4-points with LA at home. I definitely think the Cardinals coming into at 3-0 is giving us value. At the same time, I think the public perception is that the Rams are going to come out flat after their huge win over the Bucs. I just think all the talk about how the Rams won't play well after their big win against Brady and Tampa Bay, is going to have them locked in. I think it also helps that LA is at home and this is a division game. It's no secret how good the NFC West is this year. I just don't see the Rams not showing up with their best effort on Sunday. The biggest thing here for me is I don't see how this Arizona defense is going to be able to slow down Matthew Stafford and this Rams offense. LA is averaging 31.7 ppg, 388 ypg and 6.8 yards/play. Keep in mind McVay and the Rams owned the Cardinals when Goff was their quarterback. Kyler Murray on the other hand has had an awful time when matched up with this Rams defense. Murray has started 4 games against LA since coming into the league and the Cardinals are 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS in those game. The Rams have won those contests by an average scored of 30.2 to 16.5. Murray is averaging just 187 passing yards/game with a mere 5-4 TD-INT ratio. Give me the Rams -4! |
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10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +7 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 63 h 47 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Public Money ATS MASSACRE (Jets +7) I know it's asking a lot to put your hard earned money on a team like the Jets, but I just feel like there's just too much value on New York to pass up. This comes from the guy who bet the Jets a +10.5 last week at Denver in a game they lost 26-0 with just 162 total yards of offense. It's just how the NFL works. What it's done is really create a buy low spot on the Jets at home against a mediocre at best Titans team. Let's start off with Tennessee. They come in 2-1, but could and should be 1-2. They got absolutely embarrassed in their opener at home by the Cardinals 13-38. They then somehow beat the Seahawks on the road 33-30 after railing 16-30 in the 4th quarter. I also don't think there's anything to get excited about with last week's 25-16 win over a Colts team that hasn't won a game. The other big thing working against the Titans is injuries. We know for sure they won't have top wide out A.J. Brown and there's a chance they won't have Julio Jones. Running back Derrick Henry is the only other Tennessee player with more than 100 yards receiving. Say what you want about the talent the Jets have on defense, they are playing really hard on that side of the ball and if there's a strength for New York on that side of the ball it's stopping the run. I really think they are going to be able to load the box here and keep Henry in check, which in turn makes you wonder how this Titans team is going to score. Tennessee also has all kinds of guys out on defense and they have not looked good on that side of the ball. I know Zach Wilson has struggled and is playing behind a horrible o-line, but this is a defense he can have some success against. It might not be pretty, but I really like the Jets to find a way to keep this within a touchdown at home on Sunday. Give me New York +7! |
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10-03-21 | Panthers +4.5 v. Cowboys | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Panthers +4.5) I will gladly take my chances with the Panthers as a 4.5-point dog at Dallas on Sunday. It's no secret that the Cowboys are a huge public team. Every amatuer player out there is going to be running to the ticket window to lay the short number with Dallas in this one, especially after just watching them blowout the Eagles at home on Monday Night Football in Week 3. I just think it's created a great sell high spot on the Cowboys against a vastly improved Panthers team that comes in at 3-0. One huge factor here that's getting overlooked is the huge rest edge that Carolina has. The Panthers are playing an extra 3 days of rest compared to normal after playing on TNF last week. Dallas on the other hand is playing on 1 less day of rest after playing on MNF. On top of the rest, you also have to factor in the massive edge in coaching Carolina has with Rhule compared to McCarthy. I think the big thing here for a lot of people is they just don't see a world in which the Panthers can go score for score with Dallas. I don't think the Panthers have to score a ton to cover or even win this game. The Panthers have one of the best defenses in the league that has excelled against both the run and the pass. They are giving up just 2.6 yards/carry, a mere 146 passing yards/game and lead the league with 14 sacks. It also wouldn't shock me if Sam Darnold and the Panthers offense didn't have a big game in this one. I get the Cowboys are improved defensively, but a lot of that has been their offense playing ball control, something that won't be as easy in this game. Darnold looks like a completely different QB than what we saw with the Jets. I could definitely see him having a big game. Give me the Panthers +4.5! |
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10-03-21 | Chiefs -7 v. Eagles | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 63 h 44 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Big Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Chiefs -7) I know the Chiefs haven't been able to cover the spread, but I'm willing to go down swinging with Patrick Mahomes and this Kansas City team in this spot. It's hard to believe we are even talking about a must-win game in Week 4 with the Chiefs, but with KC sitting at 1-2 they desperately need to win this game. I know the defense has been bad for Kansas City, but as bad as it's been they could still be sitting at 3-0 right now. You also have to keep in mind who the Chiefs have played the first 3 weeks. They have faced 3 of the best offensive teams in the league in the Browns, Ravens and Chargers. The drop off from facing Mayfield, Jackson and Herbert to Hurts is massive. The only team the Eagles have had any kind of success against in their first 3 games is the Falcons. They scored just 11 points at home against the 49ers and 14 of their 21 against the Cowboys came after that game was well out of reach. On the flip side of this, the Eagles just gave up 41 points to the Cowboys with Mike McCarthy doing everything in his power to hold Dallas back. I see no scenario here with Philly holds Mahomes and this Chiefs offense under 30 points and that means they got to score at least 23 here to push at this number. Everyone has been waiting for Kansas City to have that dominating win and I think this is the week they deliver. Give me the Chiefs -7! |
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10-03-21 | Giants +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 63 h 45 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - NFC Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR (Giants +7.5) I absolutely love the Giants as a 7.5-point road dog against the Saints on Sunday. You got everyone wanting to lay the big number here with the Saints in their first game back home and yet we have seen this line drop in favor of the Giants. The smart money is on New York and for good reason. I'm just not buying into the hype with New Orleans. They have been all over the place in their first 3 games. They shocked everyone by embarrassing the Packers in Week 1 playing keep away from Aaron Rodgers, they then get beat badly on the road at Carolina and last week take down Belichick and the Pats 28-13. I get a win is a win, but you can't ignore the fact that the Saints were outgained in that game by New England 300-252. I just don't trust Jameis Winston. He's got an impressive 7-2 TD-INT ratio, but has yet to throw for more than 150 yards in a game this season. Asking a team to cover a 7.5-point spread that has this much trouble moving the ball thru the air is a lot. On the flip side of this, the Giants aren't as bad as their 0-3 record. Everyone talks like they this awful team, yet they are only getting outgained by 24 ypg. The Saints are getting outgained by 70 ypg. Daniel Jones has also been a covering machine in this spot, going 8-3 ATS as a road dog in his NFL career. I know a lot of the games for Winston came with the Bucs, but it's worth noting that he's just 7-14 ATS as a starter when his team is favored and just 4-12 when his team is laying points at home. This has all the makings of one of those games the Giants don't just cover but win outright. Give me New York +7.5! |
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09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers -3.5 | 30-28 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 35 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Packers/49ers SNF MONEY-MAKER (49ers -3.5) I bought this to -3 when I put the play in (can't buy points on the site), but lucky for you this line has dropped down to -3 at most books. I don't think it will matter either way. I'm just don't think this Packers team is as good as what people think. The defense is vulnerable, especially against the run, and the offense is going to have their ups and downs until they get healthy on the offensive line. I give the 49ers a massive edge on both sides of the trenches and we have seen Rodgers struggle to play well when Green Bay goes out west. I see the 49ers putting together a very similar game plan to the Saints, where they just play keep away from Rodgers and the offense with the run game. The betting public won't be able to help themselves with the Packers as a dog, but I got a feeling this game is going to be lopsided the other way. Note that Green Bay is just 9-14 ATS with Rodgers as a starter as a dog and the 49ers are 14-5 SU last 19 at home and have won 23 of their last 27 as a favorite. Give me San Francisco -3.5! |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings +2 | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 76 h 25 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Public Money ATS MASSACRE (Vikings +2) I will take a shot on the Vikings as a 2-point home dog against the Seahawks on Sunday. The betting public is going to be all over Seattle in this game and the books know it. For them to make the Seahawks less than a field, tells you a lot about how confident they are with Minnesota winning this game. The Vikings are 0-2, but could just as easily be 2-0. They should have won in OT at Cincinnati in Week 1 and had a field goal to win it on the road late at Arizona in Week 2. So not only is Minnesota better than people think, they are going to be a desperate team here to avoid an 0-3 start. You also have to keep in mind the Vikings will be playing their first game at home this year. Minnesota is 35-22 (61%) ATS at home under head coach Mike Zimmer. They are also 20-9 ATS last 29 off a road loss under Zimmer and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a loss by 3-points or less. Give me the Vikings +2! |
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09-26-21 | Bucs v. Rams +1.5 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 49 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Bucs/Rams Big Game ATS NO-BRAINER (Rams +1.5) I will take my chances with the Rams as a +1.5 home dog against the Bucs in the most anticipated game of Week 3. While these are two public teams right now, Tampa Bay is right there with the Chiefs as the biggest public teams and they are going to be the one everyone takes, especially with this line. I just think the Rams are primed to win this game at home. LA head coach Sean McVay couldn't have been more excited about getting Matthew Stafford and you can see why after these first two games. This Rams team was pretty potent with Goff, now they are elite. I also still think people are way too high on this Tampa Bay defense after how they dominated the Super Bowl against the Chiefs. That was more of the Chiefs having 2nd and 3rd stringers on the offensive line, many of which were playing out of position. This Bucs secondary is not that good and we have seen them get exposed in the first two games. Tom Brady and the Bucs clearly have a great offense, but this is going to be by far the best defense they have seen this season after playing the Cowboys and Falcons. We also know the one way to get Brady off his game is to get pressure up the middle. No one in the league is better at that than LA's Aaron Donald. I just trust the Rams offense more in this one. Give me Los Angeles +1.5! |
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09-26-21 | Jets +10.5 v. Broncos | 0-26 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 48 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (+10.5) I’m going to take the New York Jets as a 10.5-point road dog against the Denver Broncos. I just think this line is a little out of control. This might be from a casual fans perspective the biggest mismatch on the board Sunday. The Jets are 0-2 and have failed to cover the spread in both games. They looked dreadful last week in a 25-6 loss at home to the Pats. Denver on the other hand is 2-0 and have cashed against the spread in both games. When I look at how these two teams got to where they are, I don’t think New York is as bad as what people think and I don’t think the Broncos are as good as people think. It shouldn’t have surprised anyone how bad the Jets looked last week against the Patriots. That was a matchup nightmare with how Bill Belichick’s mastery of rookie QBs on the defensive side and the fact that you had a desperate and pissed of NE team that was trying to avoid an 0-2 start after giving a game away at home to the Dolphins in Week 1. That game was so lopsided that I think people are completely overlooking how competitive they were in a 14-19 road loss to the Panthers. Now I know it’s only two weeks in, but that Carolina team is the real deal. If there’s a team that surprises and makes the playoffs out of the NFC, my money is on the Panthers. They got a very good defense and are extremely well coached on both sides. I really think the Jets have faced two of the best defensive teams in the league in their first two games. Now I know the Broncos are no pushover defensively, but I don’t think they are on the same level as those two teams. Denver is also down some guys on the defensive side. They lost starting inside linebacker Josey Jewell, one of their top pass rushers in Bradley Chubb and one of their top corners in Ronald Darby. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if Zack Wilson had a breakout game here. Getting back to Denver being overvalued. I don’t get why everyone is going all in with this team after beating the Giants and Jags. I get both of those were on the road, but they should be 2-0 coming into this game. Anything other than that would be a huge disappointment. They only beat the Giants by 14 and that game was 10-7 less than halfway thru the 3rd quarter. New York had 4 drives end in Broncos territory that resulted in 0 points. Trailing by just 10 late in the 3rd, they fumbled on 1st and 10 from the Denver 22. The next drive they had 1st and Goal from the 7 and gained 1 yard before turning it over on downs. Very next series they had 1st and 10 from the Den 16 and again turned it over on downs. I know the Jags had a 102 yard KO return for a TD late in the 4th to only lost by a final score of 23-13, but I feel pretty confident saying Jacksonville is the worst team in the league. Let’s not also forget they only led 10-7 at the half of that game. If the Broncos are a real playoff contender, that should have been even more lopsided than it was. Last thing I want to point out is I think the perception is the Jets are an awful defensive team, but the numbers don’t support that. Not many teams only give up 25 points when their offense turns it over 4 times. Pats scored two TDs and a FG on 3 of those turnovers. I think people would be shocked to see that the Jets outgained NE 336 to 260 in that game. No way I’m passing up on the value we are getting at 10.5 with the spread, but I truly believe New York can win this game outright if Wilson takes care of the ball. Give me the Jets +10.5. |
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09-26-21 | Washington Football Team +8 v. Bills | 21-43 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 22 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Football Team +8) I will gladly take the 8-points with the Football Team on the road against the Bills. I came into this season thinking Buffalo was one of the most overrated teams in the NFL and they certainly haven't looked like an elite team early on. They lost Week 1 at home to a Steelers team that has no offense and while they did win 35-0 last week at Miami, that game was not near as close as the final score would indicate. Not to mention the Dolphins were behind the 8-ball early in that game with Tua leaving with an injury. Washington was a team a lot of people were high on coming into the season. Even though they are 1-1 with their only loss to the Chargers, it's like everyone has flipped on this team and think they aren't a serious contender anymore in the NFC East. I just think it has the Football Team way undervalued here against a Bills team that just hasn't played great. One thing that I keep hearing is how this Washington defense isn't any good. Yes, they were overrated coming into the season, but they aren't as bad as what people are saying. I think Chase Young is going to have a big game here and I like this defense to play well enough for the Football Team to not only cover, but win outright. Give me Washington +8! |
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09-26-21 | Bengals +3 v. Steelers | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 73 h 33 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals +3) I love the Bengals as a mere 3-point road dog against the Steelers. I'll be the first to admit that I thought this Steelers team was going to be better than people thought. I don't think that anymore. While Pittsburgh's defense is one of the better units in the league, the offense is one of the worst. The Steelers offensive line might be the worst in the NFL and Big Ben looks like he's half the quarterback he was. Roethlisberger is also now dealing with a pec injury, so this doesn't figure to be the game he gets on track. I also have big concerns with Pittsburgh's defense is T.J. Watt can't go. He's one of several guys on the defensive side of the ball that are questionable for this game. As for the Bengals, I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of this team in their first two games. Joe Burrow might not have any better of an offensive line in front of him, but he's shown that he can find a way to make things happen. I also think this Cincinnati defense is vastly underrated. The Bengals are only giving up 304 ypg, 4.7 yards/play and 3.4 yards/rush. Give me Cincinnati +3! |
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09-23-21 | Panthers -7.5 v. Texans | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
40* (CFB) - Panthers/Texans TNF ATS ANNIHILATOR (Panthers -7.5) If you are a long-term client, you know that the OVER is my go to in these Thursday games, especially early in the season. If Tyrod Taylor was starting for Houston, I would have been. I just can't take an over when I'm not sure one of the two teams will be able to move the ball. Third round rookie Davis Mills will start in place of Taylor. Mills wasn't drafted with any kind of expectation that they would need him. He's just not ready for this stage and honestly may never be. He was 8 of 18 for 102 yards. That's 5.7 yards/attempt. Taylor was 10 of 11 for 125 yards with an 11.4 yards/attempt before he went down (Houston might have won that game if he doesn't get hurt). Mills also doesn't have the mobility and ability to move the chains with his feet. He's also going up against an extremely well coached Carolina defense that has been elite in their first two games. They held the Jets to 252 total yards and the Saints to a whopping 128. They have given up 90 rushing yards in two games, giving up just 2.7 yards/carry. I think the only thing that would give Mills a chance to be good in this game, is if Houston got the run game going. On the flip side, there's no reason to think this Carolina offense won't be able to expose a bad Houston defense that won't by near it's best on just 3 days. Houston is giving up 375 yards/game (Panthers have allowed 380 total in two games). They let an awful Jags offense put up 395 yards. The other thing with the Panthers is I think people are slow to believe in this team because of Sam Darnold. All they can think about is how bad the Jets were with Darnold the last couple of years. He's much improved and in a much better scheme for his skill set. He also benefits from all the attention that Christian McCaffrey gets from defenses. I know it's the NFL and you never quite know what is going to happen, but I would be shocked if Houston had any kind of chance to cover in the 2nd half. Give me the Panthers -7.5! |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Ravens | Top | 35-36 | Loss | -112 | 129 h 3 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Chiefs/Ravens SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -3) I just don't understand this line. This to me feels like what the line should be if both teams were at full strength. That's just not the case. The Ravens have been absolutely decimated by injuries. It's really starting to remind me a lot of the 49ers last year, where they had so many guys go out they went 6-10 just one year removed from playing in the SB. Everyone knows about all the guys the Ravens have had go down at running back. They also lost one of their best defensive players in corner Marcus Peters. There's also major concern up front on the offensive line. That unit played really bad against a mediocre Raiders defensive front. While it doesn't figure to be long-term, starting left-tackle Ronnie Staley is doubtful to play. The Chiefs are going to LIVE in the Ravens backfield. On the flip side of this, I think because the Browns were up the majority of that game last week, people overlook just how good the Chiefs offense was. Kansas City only punted twice that entire game. Only one of their drives didn't end in Cleveland territory. Patrick Mahomes was only sacked twice, which I think speaks volumes to that new offensive line. The Browns got one of the best defensive fronts in the league. If Baltimore runs all that man-to-man defense, Mahomes is going to pick them apart if he's got time to throw. Mahomes has really feasted on this Baltimore defense the past few years and this might be his best game versus them yet. Give me the Chiefs -3! |
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09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers -3 | 20-17 | Loss | -100 | 127 h 3 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Chargers -3) I'm going to take the Los Angeles Chargers as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Dallas Cowboys. After watching that Cowboys/Bucs game last Thursday, I immediately circled this game at the Chargers as a spot to play against Dallas. The betting public loves the Cowboys and are going to be betting them like crazy here after what they saw out of this Dallas offense with Dak Prescott under center. That offense is really good, but I'm not as high on that Tampa Bay secondary as others. It's the front 7 that really makes that Bucs defense. I think they could have a little tougher time against this Chargers secondary. I know Ryan Fitzpatrick barely played, but you can't ignore the fact that they held Washington 133 yards passing. That's unheard of in today's NFL. Let's also not forget their new head coach, Brandon Stately got this job because of what he did on the defensive side of the ball with the Rams. The even bigger thing that is getting overlooked with Dallas because of all the attention Dak and that offense are getting, is this Cowboys defense is once again one of the worst units in the league. I thought they were fortunate to only give up 31 to Brady and the Bucs. The Chargers offense didn't wow us in Week 1, as they only put up 20 points in their win over Washington. While I don't know if the Football Team is as good defensively as what everyone is saying, that's a much better defense than the one they will face on Sunday and they should be much more comfortable at home. They did have an impressive 424 yards of total offense against Washington. I think Justin Herbert is going to have a field day in this one and I would be shocked if LA didn't put up at least 30 in this one. Give me the Chargers -3! |
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09-19-21 | Patriots -4.5 v. Jets | Top | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 147 h 4 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH (Pats -4.5) I absolutely love the Patriots this week. I bet them early before the line jumped even more, but I do still recommend a play at the current line. As long as this is less than a touchdown, play it. New England was one of my favorite bets in Week 1 that didn't get home. It definitely felt like the right side, as the Pats dominated the box score. NE really beat themselves in that one. Rarely have we seen a Bill Belichick coached team execute poorly in 2 straight games. Let's also not overlook who they are playing. The Jets are awful. I think they may have something in rookie QB Zach Wilson and that's maybe why they are getting some love early on. The problem isn't Wilson, it's the offensive line. Wilson was sacked 6 times in last week's loss to the Panthers. Add in the mastery of Belichick against rookie QBs and there's just little upside for that Jets offense that can't run the ball to do much of anything. The Pats also have a rookie QB in Mac Jones. I said before the season he was my favorite pick to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and he was by far the best rookie QB in Week 1. He's only going to get better as he learns that McDaniels offense. I think NE will have no problem moving the ball and winning this game by at least double-digits. Give me the Pats -4.5! |
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09-12-21 | Packers v. Saints +4.5 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 139 h 58 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Public Money BLOODBATH (Saints +4.5) It doesn't feel like anyone is giving New Orleans a shot in this game. Easy to see why. The public loves Aaron Rodgers as a small favorite (certainly don't want to bet against him), there's a lot of questions with the Saints offense now that it's Jameis Winston and not Drew Brees at quarterback and the game isn't being played in the SuperDome (neutral site at Jacksonville). I could be dead wrong here, but I think Winston is going to put up some big numbers in this Sean Payton offense. The one knock on Brees in his final years was he couldn't throw it deep. It really let defenses play up. That's not an issue with Winston (it's forcing it into bad spots). If he can stretch the defense, it's only going to create more space for Alvin Karma and that's a scary thing for opposing teams. Defensively, there's a lot to like here with the Saints. They did lose some guys up who played big roles, but the core of that unit is back. They finished 4th against the run and 5th against the pass last year. They led the league in interceptions and were 8th in sacks. I think they can make life tough for Rodgers and that Packers offense, especially with Green Bay missing stud left tackle David Bakhtiari. It's also worth noting both Packers starting OLB Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith are questionable to play. Give me the Saints +4.5! |
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09-12-21 | Broncos -2.5 v. Giants | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 139 h 57 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Broncos -2.5) I just think this is too good a price to pass up with the Broncos. I don't love to play road favorites in Week 1 (this is the only one), but I just can't pass up with the value I see with Denver in this one. I just don't know what people are seeing in this Giants team. Getting Saquon Barkley back is a big deal, but they got a below-average QB running their offense in Daniel Jones. They also have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, which is both a negative for Barkley and Jones. It's certainly a negative for New York in this matchup against a really good Denver defense that has two elite pass rushers in Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. The Broncos also made massive improvements in the secondary with the free agent additions of Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller, as well as their first round pick on Patrick Surtain II. I just don't see the Giants offense doing much of anything in this game. On the flip side, I think this Denver offense is one to watch out for. Teddy Bridgewater is an upgrade over Drew Lock and they one of the most underrated receiving corps in the league. They also had the 13th best rush attack last year. Give me the Broncos -2.5! |
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09-12-21 | Browns v. Chiefs -6 | 29-33 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 50 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Browns/Chiefs GAME OF THE WEEK (Chiefs -6) I got absolutely no problem laying less than touchdown at home with the Chiefs. It's no disrespect the Browns. Okay maybe a little, but it's more about how good I think this Kansas City team is. I really feel like this is the most talented and deep the Chiefs have been on both sides of the ball since Mahomes took over. What GM Brett Veach did to overhaul that offensive line is really remarkable. Even more so that a lot of the guys he went out and got, got beat out by some really promising rookies. Not only is this unit going to better protect Mahomes, but they are going to be able to make defenses that sit back in zone pay with the run game. I really think this offense will be near impossible to start. The Browns made a lot of big moves in the offseason, but I just don't think they are on the same level here. Baker Mayfield is good, but he's not elite and he has to be so good for Cleveland to keep it close in a shootout. This is also no joke of a Chiefs defense. They got one of the best secondaries in the league, made some nice additions to improve against the run and a freak up front in Chris Jones. Add in how difficult it's going to be for Mayfield and the Browns offense to execute with the noise of Arrowhead and I just don't see this game being all that close. Give me the Chiefs -6! |
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09-12-21 | Dolphins v. Patriots -2.5 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -110 | 559 h 45 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Opening Week PLAY OF THE YEAR (Pats -2.5) I will gladly lay less than a field goal at home with the Patriots and I don't care if it's Cam Newton or Mac Jones under center for New England. I don't think people give the Pats enough credit for going 7-9 last year. I know it's nowhere close to the standards we have seen in the last two decades, but I don't know many other coaches that could get 7 wins out of a team with as little talent as NE had after all those guys opted out. *I'm extremely excited that it's going to be Jones at QB. I never really thought Cam was a good fit. For NE's offense to thrive, they need to execute at a high level. Cam isn't a guy that can pick apart defenses in the pocket with his arm. It was all about his freakish size and athleticism, which is why he doesn't have a job just a few years removed from winning the MVP. They should be one of the best defensive teams in the league this year and I'm pretty confident they are going to get better QB play, whether it's Cam or Jones. I do think it will be Cam and I think if he's healthy, he's going to surprise some people. They are also really strong up front on the o-line and should be able to run the football. The Dolphins are a franchise that looks to be headed in the right direction, but I'm not as high on this team as others. I think there's still legit questions on Tua Tagovailoa and if he's a legit franchise QB. I also don't love the weapons he has at his disposal and I got major concerns with their offensive line. Defensively they are going to be solid, but they are more better suited to stop a strong passing attack than a strong run game. Give me the Pats -2.5! |
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09-12-21 | Steelers +6.5 v. Bills | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 136 h 33 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Steelers +6.5) I’m going to take the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 6.5-point road dog at the Buffalo Bills. It doesn't happen often, but this is one of those Week 1 games where it's a matchup between a team that I feel is very underrated and a team I think might be a little overrated. I think because of all the love the Browns and Ravens are getting as the top contenders in the AFC North, people are mistakenly overlooking this Steelers team. Yea they lost a shootout to the Browns in the playoffs, but they won the division last year with a 12-4 record. They are going to be elite on defense again. They only real loss was linebacker Bud Dupree. They got the core back from a unit that was #3 in 2020 in both scoring and total defense, giving up just 305.8 ypg and 19.5 ppg. Offensively there's a lot of questions around Big Ben and can he keep this going. Injuries have been a problem. You can't assume someone is going to get hurt and he's as tough as they get at the position. I've liked what I've seen out of him and this offense in training camp. You also have to keep in mind he doesn't figure to have to carry as big a load this year. The Steelers used a 1st round pick on Alabama RB Najee Harris. There's been nothing but positive reports about Harris so far and I think he's going to be a star from the get go. Yes I said the Bills were overrated. That's not saying I think they are a bad team, but I just think the hype's a little much. They feasted on a down AFC East, going 6-0 in division games. They also went 5-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points. I'll admit Josh Allen has turned out to be better than I thought he would, but he's still not a guy I fully trust. He was just 24 of 32 for 238 yards in last year's game against the Steelers. Defensively they were middle of the pack in about every major stat. I really think this line should be Bills -3 at most. Keep in mind Buffalo was only a 2-point favorite at home vs the Steelers last year. I not only think Pittsburgh keeps it close, but I like their chances of winning outright. Give the Steelers +6.5! |
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09-12-21 | Vikings v. Bengals +3.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 91 h 7 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Big Money Vegas STEAMROLLER (Bengals +3.5) I think there's some really good value here with Cincinnati as a 3.5-point home dog against the Vikings. I'm a big Joe Burrow fan. I think the kid has something special and the more I see LSU struggle without him, the less we have to worry about him not being able to be that same guy in the NFL. A big reason there's not more hype on Cincinnati and Burrow coming into 2021, is the simple fact that Burrow missed the last 6 games in 2020. People forget he was on pace to break a lot of rookie record not just in Cincinnati but all-time. He was doing it behind an absolutely awful offensive line and with Tyler Boyd as his No. 1 wideout. Burrow also didn't play in the preseason and for many they need to see it to believe it, so they are holding out to make their evaluations on this team until after this game. The offensive line is far from a strength, but it should be improved. They used a Top 5 pick on wide out Ja'Marr Chase, Burrows former teammate at LSU and a rising star in second year wide out Tee Higgins. The other thing here, this is a plus matchup for Burrow and the Bengals offense. Minnesota was 27th last year in total defense (393.3 ypg), ranking 25th against the pass and 27th vs the run. Their 23 sacks ranked 28th. It's hard to imagine a Mike Zimmer defense being that bad again in 2021, but I'm not one that think he's just going to magically turn them into a Top 10 or even Top Half of the league unit. Vikings got some big names on offense, but I got zero trust in Kirk Cousins. He hasn't looked great in training camp and lost one of his best weapons in TE Irv Smith. Give me the Bengals +3.5! |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Bucs | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -114 | 266 h 15 m | Show |
50* CHIEFS/BUCS SUPER BOWL *BEST BET* (Chiefs -3) This is an easy play for me on the Chiefs. I not only think the Chiefs win the game and cover, but I could see this thing getting out of hand. Kansas City had little to no problem moving the ball against the Bucs defense when these two teams played in the regular-season. The Chiefs put up 543 yards with Mahomes completing 37 of 49 attempts for 462 yards and 3 scores. That's the thing, this Tampa Bay defense is built to stop the run. They just don't have the corners to hang with the weapons that this KC offense possess. I also think their pass rush will be negated with how good Mahomes is in the pocket. Let's also not forget how bad Mahomes played for about 3.5 quarters of last year's Super Bowl and the Chiefs still won that game. I don't think Mahomes will play that poorly in his second Super Bowl. As for Tom Brady and the Bucs offense, I think they could struggle. The Chiefs should be able to get pressure on Brady, as they got the guys in the secondary to matchup with Tampa Bay's weapons. Sure the Bucs could try and run the ball and might have some success, but it's only a matter of time before they have to throw to keep pace with the Chiefs offense. Give me Kansas City -3! |
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01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 103 | 118 h 6 m | Show |
50* BILLS/CHIEFS AFC CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Chiefs -3 I'm shocked the Chiefs are only a 3-point home favorite in the AFC Championship Game. I feel like this should be the line if Mahomes wasn't playing, but as expected he's been cleared to play. I get the Chiefs have struggled to cover down the stretch, but we are talking about a 3-point spread with a team that is 24-1 in Mahomes last 25 starts. That includes a win over the Bills earlier this season. A game in which the Chiefs didn't need Mahomes to be great to win, as they rushed for more yards (245) than the Bills had total yards (206). KC's defense completely shutdown Josh Allen, who had a mere 66 passing yards in the 4th quarter before finishing with a mere 122. I just think this Bills offense is a perfect matchup for the Chiefs, as Buffalo doesn't have a running game. If you can't play keep away from Mahomes and that KC offense you are in trouble and I think the the Chiefs defense can exploit Allen's lack of accuracy. I just don't see Mahomes losing a game of this magnitude at home. Give me the Chiefs -3! |
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01-16-21 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 18-32 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
50* RAMS/PACKERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams +7) I will gladly take the 7-points with the Rams against the Packers on Saturday. LA was my favorite sleeper pick coming into the playoffs. They lived up to the hype on Wild Card Weekend, going on the road and beating the Seahawks 30-20. For me it's all about the Rams defense. They are so good across the board on that side of the ball. They can take away Aaron Jones and the run game and have one of the best corners in the league in Jalen Ramsey to matchup with Rodgers favorite weapon Davante Adams. There's just not a lot of other weapons out there for GB and if LA can get that pass rush going, the Rams could easily win this game outright. Give me Los Angeles +7! |
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01-10-21 | Browns +5 v. Steelers | 48-37 | Win | 100 | 147 h 5 m | Show | |
40* BROWNS/STEELERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Browns +5) I mentioned in the podcast I do during the week that road underdogs were 9-1-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons on Wild Card weekend. That improved to 11-1-1 with both the Colts and Rams covering as road dogs on Saturday. While I do have some concerns with the news that the Browns will be without their head coach, I'm riding with Cleveland in this one. I just think so many people are focusing on that and ignoring the fact that the Steelers did not play well at all down the stretch. Pittsburgh went just 1-4 in their last 5 games and in their lone win, a 28-24 victory against the Colts, they trailed 24-7 in that game. A lot of people will point to the Steelers nearly beating the Browns in Week 17 with Mason Rudolph instead of Ben Roethlisberger. I'm not saying that they are the same quarterback, but Rudolph threw for 315 yards and 2 scores. How much more than that can you really expect out of Big Ben. He only had two games all season where he threw for more than 315 yards and he had 2 or fewer TD passes in 5 of his last 6 starts. Give me the Browns +5! |
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01-10-21 | Bears +10.5 v. Saints | Top | 9-21 | Loss | -125 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
50* BEARS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (BEARS +10.5) I mentioned in the podcast I do during the week that road underdogs were 9-1-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons on Wild Card weekend. That improved to 11-1-1 with both the Colts and Rams covering as road dogs on Saturday. I fully expect the Bears to add to this red-hot trend on Sunday. I played against Chicago as a 5.5-point home dog to the Packers in Week 17. Green Bay went on to cover in a 35-16 win, but it was not anywhere close to as big a blowout as that final score would indicate. The Packers had a mere 21-16 lead with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. Chicago outgained Green Bay 356 to 316. This is simply no longer an anemic offense that the Bears have. When you couple their ability to now move the ball with a defense that can matchup with anyone, this team is built to keep games close and that's where the value comes in with this line at 10.5. Not to mention Drew Brees is not Aaron Rodgers, he doesn't put near the threat on the defense down the field that Rodgers does. Give me the Bears +10.5! |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +9 | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 123 h 6 m | Show | |
40* BUCS/FOOTBALL TEAM NFL SHARP STAKE (Football Team +9) No one is going to be running to the ticket window to bet Washington in the last game of Saturday's triple-header and I think it has the Football Team showing tremendous value here as a near double-digit home dog against Tom Brady and the Bucs. History not only says Washington is the right team to back, but it says they will win this game outright. There have been two times where a team has made the playoffs after a full season of games. The 2010 Seattle Seahawks and the 2014 Carolina Panthers. Both teams won outright on Wild Card weekend, with the Seahawks defeating the Saints 41-36 as a 10-point dog and the Panthers taking out the Cardinals 27-16 as a 10-point dog. Not to mention Washington head coach Ron Rivera was the man in charge of Carolina's victory. I'm well aware of the numbers that Tom Brady and the Bucs offense has put up in their 4-game win streak to close out the regular-season, but let's not overlook who they have played during this stretch. Two of the games were against the Falcons and the other two were against the Vikings and Lions. Those are 3 of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Lions are dead last in the league in total defense, Atlanta is 29th and Minnesota is 27th. Washington is No. 2 in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 304.6 ypg. Their strength being against the pass, as the are No. 2 in that department, giving up just 191.8 passing yards/game. They are also No. 6 in the league in sacks, and it's no secret that over the course of his career the one thing Tom Brady struggles with is pressure and I think it could really be a problem with how much Tampa Bay likes to throw it deep. For the entire season the Bucs only faced 4 teams who finished the league in the Top 10 in sacks. The only two teams they have faced that I think compare to the defensive front of Washington is the Saints and Rams. Tampa Bay lost all 3 of those games and in those games they only averaged 251.7 ypg. Also, Brady in those games averaged just 221.3 passing yards with a 4-7 TD-INT ratio (at least 2 interceptions in each game). I get there's concerns with Alex Smith and the Washington offense, but they have won each of his last 5 starts and scored at least 20 points in each of those games. I think if they can get to 20 they got a great shot at covering this spread and if they can force some turnovers they got a shot to pull off the biggest upset of the weekend. Give me the Football Team +9! |
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01-09-21 | Rams +5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 120 h 42 m | Show |
50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR (Rams +5) I love the Rams at this price and I don't care if Goff plays or not. I like LA to win this game outright. These two split their two regular-season meetings and while Seattle won the most recent matchup at home 20-9, the Rams outgained the Seahawks 334 to 292. They outgained them 389 to 333 in the first meeting. This for me is all about the Rams defense and them being able to get stops. LA had the No. 1 total defense, allowing just 281.9 ypg and the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing 18.5 ppg. They were No. 1 against the pass, No. 3 against the run and were No. 2 in sacks. They also were one of the better teams running the football down the stretch, averaging close to 130 ypg over their last 6 games. If it's Wofford, he makes their ground game even that more potent. The ability to put pressure on Russell Wilson and shutdown Metcalf with Ramsey is another huge reason I like the Rams in this game. I see this as a one-score game in the 4th quarter and that's where the value really comes from with the Rams at this price. Give me Los Angeles +5! |
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01-03-21 | Packers -5 v. Bears | 35-16 | Win | 100 | 99 h 17 m | Show | |
40* PACKERS/BEARS NFL ATS NO-BRAINER (Packers -5) I’m going to take the Green Bay Packers -5 on the road against the Chicago Bears. I just think this is too good a price to pass up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. I know the Bears need a win to ensure they make the playoffs, but this game is every bit as important to Green Bay, who needs a win to lock up the No.1 seed in the NFC. I just don’t see a Packers team that comes in having won 5 straight losing a game of this magnitude. I’m sure there will be people looking to take the points with Chicago at home, as they see a Bears team that has appeared to finally figure things out offensively since reinserting Mitch Trubisky back in the starting role. I’ll be the first to say I didn’t think this Bears offense was capable of scoring 30+ points in 4 straight games, but if it was going to happen it was going to be in this stretch of games. You just can’t overlook who this offensive outburst has come against. It’s been against 4 of the worst defensive teams in the league in the Lions, Texans, Vikings and Jaguars. Houston Detroit and Jacksonville rank 30th, 31st and 32nd in total defense all giving up 411 or more yards/game. Minnesota isn’t far back at 27th. Those 4 teams also all rank in the bottom 7 in points allowed. Green Bay isn’t an elite defensive team by any means, but they held Chicago to just 10 points thru 3 quarters back in Week 12. The Bears added to garbage touchdowns late to finish with 25, but both of those came with the Packers up 31 points. Aaron Rodgers threw 4 touchdowns in that win as Green Bay finished with 41 and that was with good old Mitch at quarterback for the Bears. I just think when you factor in who the Bears have beat up on over the last month, there’s no reason to think the Packers can’t win this game by at least a touchdown. I think they not only do that, but likely win going away. Give me Green Bay -5! |
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01-03-21 | Chargers -4.5 v. Chiefs | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
40* CHARGERS/CHIEFS NFL STEAMROLLER (Chargers -4.5) I think we are getting a steal with the Chargers as a mere 4.5-point favorite against the Chiefs. Los Angeles comes into this game having won 3 straight and I see them being plenty motivated here, even with KC resting several players and those starters that do end up playing don't figure to stay in long. The biggest thing for me is no Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs. A lot of people want to write off what Mahomes is doing because of Andy Reid and all the weapons he has. They ignore all the guys the Chiefs have lost on the offensive line. Mahomes is under constant pressure that not many quarterbacks could deal with. I think it's going to be a really tough game for backup Chad Henne. On the flip side of this, the Chargers should be able to move the ball here with Herbert. He made his NFL debut against KC back in Week 2 and went 22 of 33 for 311 yards. I don't expect many of the starters on defense to play long or at all. Give me Los Angeles -4.5! |
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12-27-20 | Broncos v. Chargers -3 | Top | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
50* BRONCOS/CHARGERS AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH (Chargers -3) I love the Chargers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Broncos. After a season filled with finding ways to lose games, LA has flipped the script the last two weeks with a 20-17 home win over the Falcons in Week 14 and a thrilling 30-27 win at Las Vegas last week. I not only think the trend continues, I think they win here easily. The Broncos have been decimated with injuries in their secondary, most notably at the corner position. Denver has not only lost both starting corners, Bryce Callahan and A.J. Bouye, but Kevin Tolliver, Duke Dawson and Essang Bassey have all suffered season-ending injuries. They also won't have one of their top pass rushers in Bradley Chubb. That's a big problem against talented rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. On the flip side of things, Denver won't have their best back in Phillip Lindsay to take advantage of weak Chargers run defense and you can't trust Drew Lock at all. I just don't see the Broncos being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Give me the Chargers -3! |
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12-27-20 | Colts -1.5 v. Steelers | 24-28 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 42 m | Show | |
40* COLTS/STEELERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -1.5) Pittsburgh comes into this game 11-3 and currently tied for the 2nd best record in the AFC, while the Colts are 10-4 and in a dog fight with the Titans for the top spot in the AFC South. Not many times are you going to see an 11-win team in the month of December as a home dog. I just think that right there tells you how bad it is right now with Pittsburgh. It crazy that just a few weeks ago the Steelers were the talk of the NFL as the lone unbeaten team at 10-0. The downward spiral started when they lost 23-17 at home to Washington after leading in that game 14-0. Then came a 26-15 loss at Buffalo, which I don’t think surprised a lot of people given how well the Bills have been playing. Then the unthinkable happened, they lost as a 14.5-point favorite to an awful Bengals team that was starting 3rd string quarterback Ryan Finley, who finished the game 7 of 13 for 89 yards. I’m sure there are going to be some that give Pittsburgh a pass. It’s easy to do when you have an 11-3 team. I just don’t think it’s a wise move. I just don’t think this is something that the Steelers can just snap out of. The writing was on the wall way before the losing started to happen, but a cupcake schedule covered up a lot of flaws. The defense that carried this team early has been decimated with injuries, Big Ben is not playing well and a lot of that is he has to do too much. Steelers are 31st in the NFL in rushing and they just don’t have the weapons like they use to on the outside. I don’t see them doing anything on the ground against a Colts defense that is one of the best in the league against the run. That’s going to make it really tough on the Steelers to sustain drives and I just feel that Indy’s renewed running game is going to be able to wear down the Steelers defense and secure a big road win on Sunday. Give me the Colts -1.5! |
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12-26-20 | 49ers v. Cardinals -5 | 20-12 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
40* 49ERS/CARDINALS NFL NO-BRAINER (Cardinals -5) I just can't help myself with Arizona laying less than a touchdown. The 49ers were eliminated from the playoffs with last week's 33-41 loss to the Cowboys and for a team that played in the Super Bowl last year, finishing out these last two games could prove to be quite a challenge. I know they are getting Kittle back, but he's likely on a play count and there's just too many injuries on both sides for it to make that big of a difference. This is a must-win for Arizona, who currently is 1-game up on the Bears, who play the Jags on Sunday. Keep in mind the Cards have to play at LA in Week 17 and the Rams will likely need that game for the NFC West title. Chicago on the other hand could be playing at home against a Packers team that has nothing to play for. There's really no excuse for Arizona to not win by at least 7 here. While they only won by 4 in the first meeting, that was back in Week 1 when the 49ers were still healthy. I just think the sharps are playing the number with SF and it's not the right move given the circumstances in Week 16. Give me the Cardinals -5! |
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12-20-20 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
50* CHIEFS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chiefs -2.5) I just can't pass up on the Chiefs at -2.5. Kansas City is in control of the No. 1 seed in the AFC and are not going to take their foot off the gas these final 3 games. The big news for this game is that Drew Brees is returning from injury. I'm a bit shocked Brees is back this early and I just wonder what he's going to be able to do and how he will respond to a hit. I'm sure they are going to try and rely heavily on their run game, but that only works if the defense can keep Mahomes and the KC offense in check. We have also seen time and time again teams who try to play keep away with the run game, they get up early, but can't sustain it for a full 4 quarters. Another big thing for me is Mahomes wasn't great last week against the Dolphins with 3 interceptions. I can guarantee you that game has been itching at Mahomes all week. Great players almost always respond after a bad showing and I think that's what we get here. Give me the Chiefs -2.5! |
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12-20-20 | Bears v. Vikings -3 | 33-27 | Loss | -120 | 119 h 57 m | Show | |
40* BEARS/VIKINGS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Vikings -3) *Analysis Coming* |
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12-20-20 | Texans +7.5 v. Colts | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
40* TEXANS/COLTS NFL ATS STEAMROLLER (Texans +7.5) I like the value here with the Texans catching 7.5-points on the road against a division rival. I think the perception with Houston is they have thrown in the towel after last week's embarrassing loss to the Bears. That performance wasn't pretty, but it was also to be expected after a crushing loss to the Colts the week before. If not for fluke fumble inside the 10-yard line in the final seconds, there's a very strong chance the Texans would have scored and beat Indy outright. There's definitely going to be some motivation here for revenge, but there's also motivation to play spoiler with how important this game is to the Colts in winning the AFC South. Another thing with last week's game against the Bears, Houston was down basically all their best skill players. They are going to get a few guys back for this game and with Deshaun Watson at quarterback they will be able to move the ball. Texans had over 300 passing yards in that previous game against the Colts. Give me Houston +7.5! |
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12-20-20 | 49ers -3 v. Cowboys | 33-41 | Loss | -122 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
40* 49ERS/COWBOYS NFL SHARP STAKE (49ers -3) I like this spot and price with San Francisco. You have the 49ers coming into this game off back-to-back losses as a slim favorite, while the Cowboys enter off their best win of the season, as they crushed the Bengals 30-7 last week. The thing is the 49ers two losses came against a red-hot Bills team and a surging Washington squad. Dallas' blowout victory was against the reeling Bengals, who have been a dumpster fire offensively since losing Burrow. Part of the problem in San Francisco's two most recent losses is they couldn't get the run game going against the strong defensive fronts of Buffalo and Washington. That's not going to be the case here. Dallas is awful against the run. On the flip side, the 49ers defense has continued to hold their own no matter who they have healthy and this Cowboys offense is one they should have success against. Give me San Francisco -3! |
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12-20-20 | Bucs v. Falcons +7 | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
40* BUCS/FALCONS NFL MONEYMAKER (Falcons +7) I felt very fortunate cashing with the Bucs last week against the Vikings. I thought when this line came out that maybe the books were trying to get us to take the Falcons, but the more I looked into it, the more it just feels like Brady and the Bucs are being overvalued. I just don't see Atlanta laying down in a division game, so while it's clear that Tampa Bay is the only team with something to play for, I expect the Falcons to be extremely motivated to play spoiler. You also have to like Matt Ryan and the weapons they have against a Bucs secondary that has a way of giving up big plays down the field. I'm not saying Atlanta pulls off the upset, but I wouldn't be shocked if they did. Give me the Falcons +7! |
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12-19-20 | Panthers +8 v. Packers | 16-24 | Push | 0 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
40* PANTHERS/PACKERS NFL NO-BRAINER (Panthers +8) This just feels like a few too many points for Green Bay to be laying against Carolina on Saturday. Even though all Teddy Bridgewater does is cover the spread, the betting public can't help themselves when it comes to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, especially when they are rolling and playing at home. It's what has allowed the books to inflate the number here. It's very similar to last week against Detroit with the Packers laying 9-points on the road to a Lions team that can attack their weak secondary. Carolina can do the same and will always be in this game because of it. The backdoor will be wide open in the 4th quarter if needed, though I think the Panthers are going to be in it the whole way. Keep in mind the only team to beat Carolina by more than 8 is the Bucs. Also, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are off a road division win and have won 75% or more of their games are a mere 8-31 (20%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me the Panthers +8! |
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12-17-20 | Chargers +3 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
50* CHARGERS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chargers +3) I'm taking the Chargers and the points on Thursday Night Football. I've had it with this Raiders team. This team was right in the thick of things in the AFC playoff picture and have just not showed up to play. They got absolutely annihilated by the Falcons 43-6 in Week 13, should have lost to the Jets (won 31-28 on last second TD) and got embarrassed at home last week by the Colts 44-27. The firing of defensive coordinator Paul Guenther should have happened before the season ever started. I don't think doing it in Week 15 is going to do a whole lot. Especially with all the injuries the Raiders are dealing with on that side of the ball. They got at least 4 starters out for this one and it's not like this defense was playing any good when they were at full strength. Herbert and the Chargers are a difficult team to trust with how they find ways to lose games, but I think some of that is playing into this favorable line. I really think Las Angeles is the more talented team and there's plenty of motivation for them to put an end to the Raiders playoff hopes with a win tonight. Give me the Chargers +3! |
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12-13-20 | Washington Football Team v. 49ers -3 | Top | 23-15 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
50* FBALL TEAM/49ERS ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH (49ers -3) I absolutely love this spot and price with the 49ers against the Redskins. This is the perfect time to fade Washington off that huge win over the Steelers on Monday. I also think it's the perfect spot to jump on San Francisco after they got embarrassed by the Bills last week. Not to take anything from Washington's win over Pittsburgh, but you can't overlook the difficult circumstances that the Steelers were in for that game. Pittsburgh was playing that game on 4 days rest, while Washington came into that game on 10 days of rest. The Football Team's 4 other wins besides the upset of the Steelers are against the Eagles, Cowboys (twice) and Bengals. I know the 49ers are playing in Arizona as their now home, but should be more familiar with this spot having played here last week. It's also the 3rd straight game Washington will be playing away from home. I just feel like SF's defense will be the difference maker in this one. Give me the 49ers -3! |
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12-13-20 | Colts v. Raiders +3 | Top | 44-27 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
50* COLTS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Raiders +3) I love the Raiders catching a field goal at home against the Colts. The perception with Las Vegas has dropped dramatically over the last few weeks. People were talking about the Raiders as one of the best teams in the AFC when they nearly upset the Chiefs for a second time in Week 11. Then came a 43-6 los at Atlanta and a miracle 31-28 win at New York. It's created the perfect buy low spot on Las Vegas this week. Right now the Raiders are sitting on the outside looking in at the playoffs. They are tied for the 8th best record in the AFC with Baltimore at 7-5, but are just 1-game back of the Colts and Dolphins. They can move into a tie with Indy and possibly Miami (play KC). I also got some big concerns with the Colts in this one. Philip Rivers is not right as he continues to fight through turf toe and Indy is a little banged up on the defensive line. I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for the Colts playing their second straight on the road (decent travel here) and off that huge win over the Texans last week. Give me Las Vegas +3! |
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Brandon Lee NFL Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-20-21 | Raiders +3 v. Browns | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
12-19-21 | Panthers +11 v. Bills | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 3 m | Show | |
12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars -3.5 | 30-16 | Loss | -113 | 75 h 45 m | Show | |
12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers -1 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
12-12-21 | Bears +13 v. Packers | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -118 | 76 h 19 m | Show |
12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -2 | 22-24 | Push | 0 | 95 h 34 m | Show | |
12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team +4.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 45 m | Show | |
12-12-21 | Jaguars +8.5 v. Titans | 0-20 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 43 m | Show | |
12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
12-06-21 | Patriots +3 v. Bills | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
12-05-21 | Broncos +10 v. Chiefs | 9-22 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 22 m | Show | |
12-05-21 | Washington Football Team +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 72 h 16 m | Show |
11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
11-28-21 | Browns +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -101 | 74 h 8 m | Show |
11-28-21 | Bucs -3 v. Colts | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 95 h 14 m | Show | |
11-28-21 | Jets v. Texans -2.5 | 21-14 | Loss | -108 | 67 h 43 m | Show | |
11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | 10-30 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
11-21-21 | Cowboys v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
11-21-21 | Bengals v. Raiders +1 | 32-13 | Loss | -102 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
11-21-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 10 m | Show | |
11-21-21 | Ravens v. Bears +6.5 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
11-18-21 | Patriots -6.5 v. Falcons | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
11-14-21 | Eagles v. Broncos -2.5 | 30-13 | Loss | -104 | 73 h 53 m | Show | |
11-14-21 | Browns v. Patriots -1 | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 95 h 55 m | Show | |
11-14-21 | Lions +9 v. Steelers | 16-16 | Win | 100 | 69 h 27 m | Show | |
11-14-21 | Saints v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -120 | 69 h 18 m | Show |
11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins +7.5 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers -7 | 27-29 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
11-07-21 | Titans +7.5 v. Rams | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 76 h 47 m | Show | |
11-07-21 | Packers +7.5 v. Chiefs | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 72 h 58 m | Show | |
11-07-21 | Cardinals v. 49ers | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 114 h 43 m | Show |
11-07-21 | Chargers -1 v. Eagles | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 113 h 25 m | Show | |
11-07-21 | Raiders v. Giants +3 | 16-23 | Win | 108 | 69 h 33 m | Show | |
11-07-21 | Vikings +6.5 v. Ravens | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 69 h 31 m | Show | |
11-07-21 | Browns v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 26 m | Show |
11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts -10 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
10-31-21 | Patriots +4.5 v. Chargers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show | |
10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 55 m | Show |
10-31-21 | Steelers v. Browns -3.5 | 15-10 | Loss | -102 | 95 h 37 m | Show | |
10-31-21 | Eagles -3.5 v. Lions | 44-6 | Win | 100 | 68 h 51 m | Show | |
10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks +4 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
10-24-21 | Bears +13 v. Bucs | 3-38 | Loss | -118 | 72 h 43 m | Show | |
10-24-21 | Panthers -3 v. Giants | 3-25 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 10 m | Show | |
10-24-21 | Jets v. Patriots -6.5 | 13-54 | Win | 100 | 68 h 15 m | Show | |
10-24-21 | Bengals +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 68 h 16 m | Show |
10-18-21 | Bills -6 v. Titans | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Seahawks +5 v. Steelers | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 94 h 59 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Raiders v. Broncos -3.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -101 | 90 h 7 m | Show | |
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
10-17-21 | Vikings v. Panthers +1 | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 95 h 47 m | Show | |
10-17-21 | Packers -4 v. Bears | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 87 h 51 m | Show | |
10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 49 m | Show |
10-10-21 | Broncos v. Steelers -1 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 95 h 40 m | Show | |
10-10-21 | Eagles v. Panthers -3.5 | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 23 m | Show |
10-07-21 | Rams -1.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 45 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Ravens +1 v. Broncos | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 99 h 9 m | Show | |
10-03-21 | Steelers +6.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 7 m | Show |
10-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rams -4 | 37-20 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 48 m | Show | |
10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +7 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 63 h 47 m | Show | |
10-03-21 | Panthers +4.5 v. Cowboys | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 45 m | Show | |
10-03-21 | Chiefs -7 v. Eagles | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 63 h 44 m | Show | |
10-03-21 | Giants +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 63 h 45 m | Show |
09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers -3.5 | 30-28 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 35 m | Show | |
09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings +2 | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 76 h 25 m | Show | |
09-26-21 | Bucs v. Rams +1.5 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 49 m | Show | |
09-26-21 | Jets +10.5 v. Broncos | 0-26 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 48 m | Show | |
09-26-21 | Washington Football Team +8 v. Bills | 21-43 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 22 m | Show | |
09-26-21 | Bengals +3 v. Steelers | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 73 h 33 m | Show |
09-23-21 | Panthers -7.5 v. Texans | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
09-19-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Ravens | Top | 35-36 | Loss | -112 | 129 h 3 m | Show |
09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers -3 | 20-17 | Loss | -100 | 127 h 3 m | Show | |
09-19-21 | Patriots -4.5 v. Jets | Top | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 147 h 4 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Packers v. Saints +4.5 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 139 h 58 m | Show | |
09-12-21 | Broncos -2.5 v. Giants | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 139 h 57 m | Show | |
09-12-21 | Browns v. Chiefs -6 | 29-33 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 50 m | Show | |
09-12-21 | Dolphins v. Patriots -2.5 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -110 | 559 h 45 m | Show |
09-12-21 | Steelers +6.5 v. Bills | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 136 h 33 m | Show | |
09-12-21 | Vikings v. Bengals +3.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 91 h 7 m | Show | |
02-07-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Bucs | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -114 | 266 h 15 m | Show |
01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 103 | 118 h 6 m | Show |
01-16-21 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 18-32 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
01-10-21 | Browns +5 v. Steelers | 48-37 | Win | 100 | 147 h 5 m | Show | |
01-10-21 | Bears +10.5 v. Saints | Top | 9-21 | Loss | -125 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +9 | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 123 h 6 m | Show | |
01-09-21 | Rams +5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 120 h 42 m | Show |
01-03-21 | Packers -5 v. Bears | 35-16 | Win | 100 | 99 h 17 m | Show | |
01-03-21 | Chargers -4.5 v. Chiefs | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
12-27-20 | Broncos v. Chargers -3 | Top | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
12-27-20 | Colts -1.5 v. Steelers | 24-28 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 42 m | Show | |
12-26-20 | 49ers v. Cardinals -5 | 20-12 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
12-20-20 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
12-20-20 | Bears v. Vikings -3 | 33-27 | Loss | -120 | 119 h 57 m | Show | |
12-20-20 | Texans +7.5 v. Colts | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
12-20-20 | 49ers -3 v. Cowboys | 33-41 | Loss | -122 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
12-20-20 | Bucs v. Falcons +7 | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
12-19-20 | Panthers +8 v. Packers | 16-24 | Push | 0 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
12-17-20 | Chargers +3 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
12-13-20 | Washington Football Team v. 49ers -3 | Top | 23-15 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
12-13-20 | Colts v. Raiders +3 | Top | 44-27 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 8 m | Show |