Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -9 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
9* Jaguars/Chiefs AFC Div Rd NO-BRAINER PLAY CHIEFS -9: Should have jumped on this one earlier at a better price, but how do we not bet the Chiefs in this game. I hear a lot of people picking the Jags as their favorite upset play of the week. The lack of respect people have with Mahomes and this team is laughable. Jacksonville isn't going into Kansas City in January and making a game of it. When these two teams played in the regular season, the Chiefs won that game 27-17 with a 486 to 315 edge in total yards. KC won that game by double-digits, despite being -3 in the turnover department. Most teams lose by double-digits with that kind of a turnover margin. Not that the Chiefs didn't try in the regular-season, but I do think there's another level they can take their game to in the playoffs. This team has been here before. Jags haven't. I don't think Jacksonville is ready for this stage. Not against Mahomes at Arrowhead. Lawrence may not have intended to piss off Chiefs Kingdom, but him saying the Jags fans are on the same level as them was a mistake. I don't think Jacksonville will is going to be up to the challenge on either side of the ball. It's a big number and why it's not a bigger play, but my money is on KC to roll on Saturday. Give me the Chiefs -9! |
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01-15-23 | Ravens +8.5 v. Bengals | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
10* NFL Wild Card Sunday VEGAS INSIDER: Baltimore Ravens +8.5 I'll take my chances with Baltimore as a 8.5-point dog against the Bengals on Wild Card Sunday. Yes, Cincinnati just beat the Ravens 27-16 at home in Week 18 to lock up the AFC North title. It never really felt like it was that close, as the Bengals jumped out to a 17-0 lead and led 24-7 at the half. Most are going to just assume Cincinnati is going to roll again at home against these Ravens. I'm not as convinced. Not enough is being made about Baltimore's defense and the job it did against this Bengals offense. Cincinnati was only able to put up 257 total yards. Baltimore had 386 total yards averaging 5.1 yards/play to the Bengals 4.0. Ravens rested two of their biggest offensive weapons in running back J.K. Dobbins and tight end Mark Andrews. They also were down to 3rd string rookie quarterback Anthony Brown. While Brown is expected to see some action in this one, 2nd string quarterback Tyler Huntley is expected to play. It feels like no one is giving this Ravens team any chance of winning this game. I just think that's a big mistake with how well this Baltimore defense is playing. If they can get the run game going with Dobbins, they got a legit shot to pull off the upset. Either way, I think they keep this to a 1-score game. Give me the Ravens +8.5! |
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01-14-23 | Chargers -2 v. Jaguars | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
10* NFL Wild Card Saturday VEGAS INSIDER: Chargers -2 I'll take my chances with the Chargers as a 2-point road favorite against the Jaguars in Saturday's AFC Wild Card matchup. You got to tip your hat to Jacksonville for turning their season around, but the only reason this team is in the playoffs is because they won a bad division (AFC South). They also benefited from an extremely easy schedule down the stretch. In their 5 game winning streak to end the year, they played the Titans twice, Cowboys at home, Jets and the Texans. The win over Dallas was impressive, but they also had to come from way behind to win that game. Justin Herbert should be able to exploit a bad Jaguars secondary. At the same time, I don't see the Jacksonville offense doing a whole lot. Give me the Chargers -2! |
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01-08-23 | Patriots +7.5 v. Bills | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 12 m | Show | |
9* NFL Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Patriots +7.5 I'm going to take the New England Patriots as a 7.5-point road dog against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. It's extremely unfortunate what happened to Bills' safety Damar Hamlin on Monday Night Football against the Bengals. I want nothing but the best for that kid and for him to make a full recovery. With that said, I just think the emotional toll of that injury is going to make it really hard for Buffalo to come out and give the kind of effort needed to beat the Patriots by more than a touchdown. In fact, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they lost this game outright. I know it's not something they probably care a whole lot about, but with that game against Cincinnati being declared a no contest, this game could lose a lot of meaning by kickoff. If Kansas City beats Las Vegas on Saturday, the Chiefs will get the coveted first round bye. There is talk that if Buffalo wins, they may move the AFC Championship Game to a neutral site. That's nice and all, but the week off is what these teams really care about. On the flip side of this, the Patriots need to win this game to ensure a playoff spot. New England can get in with losses by the Dolphins, Steelers and Titans, which is possible but very unlikely if you ask me. So on one side you have a team fighting for their playoff lives and the other with very little at stake. Even if KC were to get upset by the Raiders on Saturday, I still would like NE at this price. I know the Bills players are going to say they are ready to play, I just don't think they will be. Give me the Patriots +7.5! |
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01-08-23 | Jets v. Dolphins -2 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 66 h 24 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: Miami Dolphins -2 I love the Dolphins laying less than a field goal at home against the Jets in Week 18. I get both of these teams have not played great down the stretch. Both come into this game having lost 5 straight. The big difference is, New York's 6-23 loss at Seattle last week ended any hopes they had of making the playoffs. Miami is still alive and very much so. All they need is a win and for Buffalo to defeat the Patriot at home and they are in. I think the only reason this line isn't pushing a touchdown, is the fact that the Dolphins are down to 3rd string quarterback Skylar Thompson. Can this team win in the playoffs with Thompson as their quarterback? Probably not, but he's facing an unmotivated Jets team that hasn't put up more than 17 points in each of their last 4 games, failing to reach double-digits in each of their last 2 games. He doesn't have to be great and let's not forget who he has to throw the ball to. Having a full week to prepare is also going to help him. I just think the line has been adjusted too much for him being the starter and not enough for the spot. Give me the Dolphins -2! |
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01-07-23 | Titans +6.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10* NFL Titans/Jags AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Titans +6.5 I love the Titans as a 6.5-point road dog against the Jaguars in Saturday's winner take all for the AFC South title. I know it's technically Week 18, but this 100% going to have the feel of a playoff game. It's asking a lot for the Jags to win by a full touchdown in this spot. This is a young team that hasn't been in this kind of pressure, where Tennessee has a bunch of dudes that have played very meaningful games in January the past few seasons. I think that people also get lost in the fact that the Titans come in having lost 6 straight and Jacksonville has won their last 4. We kind of knew given Tennessee's injuries that it was going to come down to this game. We saw the Titans rest all their guys last week against Dallas. Jags decided to play their starters in a meaningless game vs the Texans. Tennessee should be the fresher team and more importantly they are as healthy as they have been in a while, especially on defense. Dobbs isn't great and probably a downgrade from Tannehill, but he's also a massive upgrade over what they were working with in rookie Malik Willis. Not saying Titans will win, but they should at the very least keep this within the number. Give me Tennessee +6.5! |
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01-01-23 | Jets -1 v. Seahawks | 6-23 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
9* NFL No Doubt ATS MASSACRE: New York Jets -1 I'll take my chances with the Jets as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Seahawks. I've played and lost with New York in each of their last two games. The first one I didn't know Mike White wasn't going to be under center. The second was just a bad play on this team with Wilson at quarterback against a surging Jaguars team. The big reason I'm going right back with New York again this week is the fact that White has been cleared to play and will be back under center. I just think there is zero faith in Wilson with the other guys in the locker room. The entire attitude changes with White under center, as their offense can provide some balance and not just force the defense to do everything. People forget how good this Jets' defense is. They have allowed more than 20 points just once in their last 7 games. That defense will be facing a Seattle offense that is trending in the wrong direction. Seahawks scored just 10 points last week against a struggling Chiefs defense and 13 the week before against the 49ers. Star rookie running back Kenneth Walker is questionable and will be playing at less than 100% if he suits up. Seattle really needs him to be a difference maker in this game, because you aren't going to make a living trying to attack this Jets defense thru the air. I just don't see their offense doing enough in this one. Give me the Jets -1! |
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01-01-23 | Browns v. Commanders -2 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 30 m | Show | |
9* NFL Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Washington Commanders -2 I'm going to lay the 2-points at home with the Commanders against the Browns. I just don't understand why Cleveland is getting so much respect in this spot. There's zero motivation for the Browns to show up in this game, as they were eliminated from the playoffs with last week's 10-17 loss at home to the Saints. A loss that stings that much more given that Cleveland had a 10-point lead in the game. It was another dreadful showing by Deshaun Watson and the offense. Watson completed just 15 of 31 attempts for 135 yards, as Cleveland's offense was able to manage to just 249 total yards and a mere 3.7 yards/play. Watson is averaging just 175.8 passing yards and has thrown just two touchdown in 4 starts since returning from his suspension. Browns offense as a whole is averaging just 295 ypg in his 4 starts. The offense hasn't gotten better with Watson. It's gotten a lot worse and I don't see it getting any better against a good Washington defense that just recently got back one of the best defensive players in the NFL in Chase Young. While Cleveland has absolutely nothing to play for, Washington desperately needs to win this game. The Commanders currently sit in the 7th and final spot in the NFC, but are just a 1/2 game up on Seattle, Detroit and Green Bay. The big thing that I think is generating the value with Washington and why everyone isn't running to bet on this team, is the uncertainty with the offense given the news that Carson Wentz is going to take back his job. It's a bit of a surprise move, as backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke guided the team to a 5-3-1 record in his 8 starts and Wentz wasn't exactly playing great when he was in control of the offense. I can't say I love the decision, but I also don't hate it. There's not that much difference between the two and Washington has transformed into a more run heavy offense than what they were earlier in the year with Wentz. Tha run-first attack should work just fine against a Browns defense that has given up 162 ypg on the ground over their last 3 games. I'm also not expecting Cleveland's defense to be all that interested in this game with the playoffs out of reach. This line to me should be closer than to a touchdown than a pick'em and at the very least the Commanders should be laying at least a field goal. Give me Washington -2! |
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12-26-22 | Chargers v. Colts +4 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
10* NFL Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Indianapolis Colts +4 I'll take my chances with the Colts as a 4-point home dog against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. Not many are going to want anything to do with betting Indy in this one. Not after last week's historic collapse against the Vikings, where Indy somehow managed to turn a 33-0 halftime lead into a 36-39 OT loss. It was the largest blown lead in NFL history and you can bet this Colts team is sick and tired of hearing about it. What better way to put it to rest, than playing at home on Monday Night Football against an opponent fighting for their playoff lives. I also like the decision head coach Jeff Saturday has made to bench Matt Ryan in favor of Nick Foles. A move I think they should have done a long time ago. Ryan just has been too inconsistent and has done a horrible job protecting the football. Foles gives that offense new life and it simply can't be any worse. As for the Chargers, they haven't exactly been clicking on the offensive side of the ball. LA scored just 20 points on the road in a loss to the Raiders, put up 23 at home against a very average Dolphins defense and last week snuck by a bad Titans defense with a 17-14 win. This is also a Chargers defense that has allowed 368.6 ypg and 6.2 yards/play on the road this season. I just can't get to them being this big a road favorite. Give me the Colts +4! |
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12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 54 h 5 m | Show |
10* NFL Christmas Day ATS MASSACRE: Denver Broncos -2.5 I'll take my chances with the Broncos as a 2.5-point road favorite against the Rams. The fact that Denver, who is just 4-10, is favored on the road against the defending champs, tells you everything you need to know about how bad this season has went for Los Angeles. Injuries have completely derailed any hopes the Rams had of running it back. Just on the offensive side of the ball, they have lost starting quarterback Matthew Stafford, one of the best WR in the game in Cooper Kupp and their big FA signing at WR in Allen Robinson. They have also had a ridiculous 14 different starters on the offensive line. No injuries at running back, but they might as well, but it's not like they can run the ball. Baker Mayfield is starting at quarterback after he was claimed off waivers a couple weeks ago. Mayfield did lead a crazy comeback win against the Raiders in his first start, but the offense managed just 3 points for 56+ mins of that game. They then proceeded to score just 12 points and rack up a mer 156 total yards in a 12-point loss at Green Bay last week. Simply put, this offense is down bad, even more so than this Broncos team. You combine that with the talent Denver has on the defensive side of the football and I just think it's without question the biggest mismatch on the field in this game. The Broncos offense has looked a little more competentent of late as well, scoring 24 last week in a win at home over Arizona and 28 the week before against the Chiefs. I'm confident they can score enough to win this game by at least a field goal. Give me the Broncos -2.5! |
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12-24-22 | Raiders v. Steelers -2 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 69 h 22 m | Show | |
9* NFL Raiders/Steelers ATS NO-BRAINER: Steelers -2 I'm going to take the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 2-point home favorite against the Las Vegas Raiders. I just think this is the perfect spot to go against the Raiders. Las Vegas comes into this game having won 4 of their last 5 games and everyone is talking about them after their crazy 30-24 win over New England last week, where the Patriots started lateralling the ball on the final play with the game tied and it ended up resulting in a Raiders defensive touchdown. Keep in mind this came after Las Vegas went 81 yards in 1:39 to tie the game with just 32 seconds to play. They also had similar wins over the Broncos and Seahawks during this 4-1 run. They tied it up with Denver with 16 left before winning the game in OT. They scored with 1:54 on the clock to tie it up and force OT in their win over Seattle. So while it may appear this team is playing better, I'm not buying it and I think they are going to have a terrible time keeping this game respectable against Pittsburgh. The Steelers are better than they get credit for. Pittsburgh has won 5 of their last 9 games with the 4 losses coming all to playoff teams in the Dolphins, Eagles, Bengals and Raiders. I also think the atmosphere at this game is going to be something special. This game is being played to honor of the Immaculate Reception by Franco Harris. They are going to retire his number at the half, which is something they don't do often in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately Harris won't be there to see it, as he passed away on Wednesday. I see the Steelers laying it all on the line in this one in honor of Harris. I also don't think you can handicap this game without looking at the weather. These two teams will be lucky if the temp reaches double-digits. Wind Chills are expected to be pushing -10 degrees. I get the Raiders have played games in the cold, but chances are not many have played in games that are going to be this cold. I just think it plays to the strength of the Steelers, who are the more physical team. Give me Pittsburgh -2! |
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12-24-22 | Seahawks +10 v. Chiefs | 10-24 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 34 m | Show | |
9* NFL - Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Seattle Seahawks +10 I'll take my chances with the Seahawks as a 10-point road dog against the Chiefs on Saturday. Kansas City has no business laying double-digits against Seattle. Yes, the Seahawks have lost 4 of their last 5 and failed to cover in all 5, but all 4 losses during this stretch have come by 8 or fewer points. The Chiefs have won 7 of their last 8 and own one of the league's best records at 11-3, but are just 4-9 ATS over their last 13 games, with two of those covers being a 10-point win over Jacksonville as a 9.5-point favorite and a 16 point win over the Rams as a 15.5-point favorite. It just seems that whenever KC is playing well, the books don't hesitate to inflate the number on them and it makes sense given how willingly the public is to lay their money on a quarterback like Mahomes. Not only is the line inflated, but this Kansas City defense has not been playing well at all of late. Their run defense has slipped from the start of the year and while their not giving up a ton of yards in the passing game here of late, they just don't seem to make a lot of big plays and aren't great on 3rd downs. I think Geno Smith will be able to do enough here to at the very least keep this a one-score game. Give me the Seahawks +10! |
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12-24-22 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
10* NFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: New York Giants +4 I got no problem taking the 4-points with the Giants as they go on the road to face the Vikings on Saturday. I just don't think Minnesota should be laying more than a field goal in this match. The Vikings are without a doubt the luckiest team in the NFL this season. They added yet another close win to their resume with last Saturday's crazy 39-36 OT win over the Colts, where they rallied from a 33-0 halftime deficit. You just can't keep winning games like this. I also think this is a horrible matchup for the Vikings. Minnesota has not been able to get their run game going of late. Vikings have eclipsed 100 yards rushing just once in their last 5 games and are averaging just 74.4 ypg during this stretch. I don't know if having to rely heavily on the pass game is a good strategy against a stingy Giants secondary. New York's only giving up 216.9 passing yards/game on the season and have allowed more than 300 yards passing just once all season. If the offense struggles to throw, they could find themselves in another big hole in this one, because there's no signs that this Vikings defense is going to get better. Minnesota is dead last in the NFL in total defense, giving up 278.8 ypg. They are allowing an average of 6.2 yards/play and are giving up an average of 31.3 ppg over their last 6 contests. Give me the Giants +4! |
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12-22-22 | Jaguars v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: New York Jets -1.5 I'll take my chances with the Jets as a 1.5-point home favorite against the Jags on Thursday Night Football. This is just too good a price to pass up on New York, especially at home in a game that will be played on just 3 days rest. Home team has a huge edge in this one. Jets should be extra motivated coming into this game having lost 3 straight. All 3 games they could have easily won. I thought Zach Wilson played well last week in place of Mike White. Better than expected. Maybe the benching helped him. Either way, this is another defense he should be able to move the ball against. Jacksonville is giving up 26.4 ppg, 394 ypg and 6.0 yards/play on the road this season. I also think this is a big flat spot for Jacksonville off last week's huge 17-point come from behind win at home against the Cowboys. How much of that was Dallas looking ahead to this week's game against the Eagles? It certainly didn't look like the Cowboys were fully invested. This is also the 3rd road game in less than 4 weeks for Jacksonville, who has shockingly will not play a single stretch all season where they play two consecutive games at home. This team is on a plane to a new city or back home every week. This feels like the spot where it catches up to them. Give me the Jets -1.5! |
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12-18-22 | Titans +3 v. Chargers | Top | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 76 h 16 m | Show |
10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Titans +3 I love the Titans as a 3-point road dog against the Chargers. This is a great buy-low spot on the Titans coming off last week's surprising 22-36 loss at home to the Jags. It's also a great sell-high spot on the Chargers, who are off a 23-17 upset win at home against the Dolphins. I get there was a lot not to like with the performance the Titans gave against the Jags, but it is worth noting they turned it over 4 times in that game. Jaguars had to go less than 50 yards on each of their first 3 scoring drives. It had them playing from behind and that's just not an ideal scenario for this run-heavy team. They shouldn't have any problem keeping their offense humming along in this one, as the Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the league. I know LA's defense played great against Tua and the Dolphins, but I believe that was more of them just copying what the 49ers did to slow down Miami. I haven't even got into all the injuries the Chargers are dealing with on the defensive side of the ball. I know it will be Justin Herbert facing off against this bad Titans secondary, but I think the Titans are going to be able to get a pass rush going in this game. Herbert has been running for his life of late. He's been sacked 18 times in the last 4 games, getting sacked at least 4 times in each game. Herbert may very well throw for a bunch of yards, but those negative plays are going to kill drives. I also think it will be tough for LA to execute in the redzone. Simply put, I like the Titans to win this game and to do so rather easily. Give me Tennessee +3! |
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12-18-22 | Patriots v. Raiders +1 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 76 h 59 m | Show | |
9* NFL Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Las Vegas Raiders +1 I'll take my chances with the Raiders as a 1-point home dog against the Patriots. Las Vegas is nowhere near as bad as their 5-8 record would lead you to believe. Their scoring differential for the season is a mere -5. Just to give you an idea of where that stacks up with the rest of the league, Miami is 10th in the NFL in scoring difference at +4. The Raiders couldn't be much unluckier in close games. Out of their 8 losses 7 of those have come by 7 or fewer points. That includes their shocking 16-17 loss at the Rams last week. The Raiders had a 16-3 lead in the 4th quarter of that game. It was all downhill from there. They gave up a 17-play 75-yard TD drive and then let the Rams go 98-yards on just 8 plays in 1:35 to score the game-winning TD with just 10 seconds to play. LA had 173 total yards in those last two drives. They had 109 total yards prior to that. It's a bad look to lose a game like that, but I don't think it's going to keep the Raiders from coming out with a big effort in this game. Keep in mind, if they win that game, they would be coming into this game having won 4 straight. Not only do I think the Raiders come into this game a bit undervalued, I'm not sold on this Patriots team. Sure they are coming off a 27-13 win at Arizona, but the Cardinals lost starting quarterback Kyler Murray early in that game. NE only outgunned Arizona 328-323. I just don't like what I've seen at all out of this Patriots offense and I don't think there defense is as good as what it gets made out to be. In this game, they will be facing a Raiders offense that is scoring 28.0 ppg at home. I just don't think NE is going to be able keep pace offensively. Give me the Raiders +1! |
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12-18-22 | Lions v. Jets | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 21 m | Show | |
9* NFL Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE: New York Jets PK I'm going to take the New York Jets as a pick'em at home against the Detroit Lions. I just think this is the time to fade the Lions. Detroit has really changed the narrative on their season and how they are perceived by going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games. The most recent being an impressive 34-23 win at home over a Minnesota team that came in with a 10-2 record. No question Dan Campbell has got this team playing well, but let's not get too carried away with this. The Lions other 4 wins during their recent hot streak are against the Jags, Giants, Bears and Packers. They have also benefited from playing each of their last 3 games at home, where they are simply a different offensive team. Detroit is scoring 26.8 ppg for the season, yet are only averaging 18.4 ppg on the road. You also got to factor in the Lions being a team that plays their home games in a dome. This game will be played outdoors with the wind chill expected to around freezing. Not to mention they are facing a pretty stingy Jets defense, that is only giving up 18.7 ppg. New York is holding opponents to an average of just 301 ypg and 5.0 yards/play and that's against teams who on average have put up 349 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. This just also feels like the perfect spot to back the Jets, who come in off back-to-back road losses to the Vikings and Bills where they had to feel like they were the better team. New York outgained the Vikings 486 to 297, averaging 5.9 yards/play to Minnesota's 4.3. They also outgained Buffalo 309 to 232 this past Sunday. I still think this is a better team with Mike White at quarterback instead of Zach Wilson. With White the offense can actually compliment the defense. I definitely think the offense will do their part in this game. Detroit's not a great defensive team. The Lions are giving up 26.7 ppg, 403 yards/game and 6.4 yards/play. I just don't see Detroit scoring enough to pull off the road win in this one. Note that the Lions are just 3-12 ATS last 15 times they have played on the road having won 4 of their last 5 games. We also see that Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are giving up 24 or more points/game and have scored 25 or more in each of their last 4 games are just 4-24 ATS in the NFL going back to 1983. This system is a perfect 1-0 this season, 9-1 over the last 3 seasons and 17-2 over the last 10 years. Give me the Jets Pk! *This play was released before the news came out that Mike White was going to be unavailable to play. With that said, I'm sticking with my play on the Jets. Zach Wilson may be a slight downgrade from White, but this Lions defense is one that even Wilson can have success against. I also have a ton of trust in this Jets defense and their ability to make things extremely difficult on Goff and this Lions offense. |
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12-18-22 | Cowboys v. Jaguars +4 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 73 h 48 m | Show |
10* NFL Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars +4 I'll take my chances with the Jaguars as a 4-point home dog against the Cowboys. I just think this Cowboys team is a bit overrated and simply being asked to lay too many points on the road in a massive lookahead spot. Next week's showdown with the Eagles is being hyped like it's the Super Bowl. It's certainly a game Dallas has been looking forward to with all the hype Philly has been getting this season. I get the Cowboys come into this game having won 4 straight, but I don't think they have necessarily played great. Sure they couldn't have looked better in a 40-3 win at Minnesota to start the win streak back in Week 11, but the Vikings are as big a fraud as you are going to find. They far from dominated the Giants at home on Thanksgiving Day the next week. They did beat the Colts 54-19, but they did go into the 4th quarter of that game leading 21-19. Last week they trailed going into the 4th quarter against one of the league's worst teams in the Texans, scoring a late TD to sneak out a 27-23 win. Thing is, when you are winning you don't really focus on the negatives like you do when you are losing. You also have a tendency to repeat those mistakes. I definitely think that will be the case here and I just don't think this Jags team is one you want to overlook right now. Jacksonville deserves a lot of credit for their 14-point road win over the Titans last week. Trevor Lawrence is only getting better and it just feels like this team has figured some things out. I can assure you the Jags are going to be motivated for this game. They are basically in playoff mode right now, as they probably need to win out to have any real shot at making the playoffs. Give me the more motivated team, playing at home and getting points. Give me the Jaguars +4! |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 2 m | Show | |
9* NFL Saturday Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Buffalo Bills -7 I got no problem laying a touchdown at home with Buffalo against the Dolphins. Defenses have figured out how to stop this Miami offense. The 49ers laid the blueprint and a Chargers defense that was missing 6 starters replicated it the next week. They are pressing the speedy wideouts and taking away the middle of the field. In the last two games, Tua has returned to the Tua we saw in the past. I would be shocked here if Buffalo didn't give them the same looks. I also think the Miami offense and entire team for that matter, could struggle in what figures to be some less than ideal playing conditions. The wind chill is expected to be below 20 with close to 25 mph wind gusts. I know that's not ideal playing conditions for the Buffalo offense either, but their might not be a better quarterback for shitty weather than Josh Allen. He's got the arm strength to zip the ball thru the wind and is really an elite runner with the ball. I also don't think this Dolphins defense is very good. It certainly hasn't been on the road this season. Miami is giving up 31.4 ppg, 387 ypg and 6.1 yards/play away from South Beach. The Dolphins defense certainly couldn't stop the Bills in the previous meeting between these two teams this season. Buffalo put up 497 total yards. Their defense also held Miami to just 212 yards. Hard to believe the Dolphins won that game 21-19. I got to think that loss is fresh in the minds of the Bills. This also feels like a huge game for Buffalo in securing an AFC East title. A win here and the Bills would be at least 3 games up on every other team in the division. A loss would put them just 1-game ahead of Miami with the Dolphins holding the tie-breaker. My money is on Buffalo to not just win, but make a statement doing so. Give me the Bills -7! |
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12-15-22 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10* NFL - 49ers/Seahawks NFC West PLAY OF THE YEAR: San Francisco 49ers -3 I'll take my chances with the 49ers laying just 3-points on the road against Seattle. If this game were being played about a month ago, I'd say it was about right. A lot has changed for these teams, most notably San Francisco. The 49ers traded for star running back Christian McCaffrey and have seen Brandon Aiyuk blossom alongside Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. It's why I'm not overly concerned about the absence of Samuel in this game, especially against what I think is a pretty bad Seattle defense. San Francisco also has a new quarterback by injury and don't seem to concerned about it. Brock Purdy, who was the last pick in last year's draft, has thrived in relief. He played great coming off the bench in the game Jimmy G got hurt against the Dolphins. He was every bit as good in his first start against the 49ers, as SF won in a blowout 35-7. I'm going to jump on the Purdy bandwagon until he doesn't deliver. As for the Seahawks, their midseason momentum has been put to a stop with 3 losses in their last 4 games. The run game has disappeared (60.0 ypg L4), Geno Smith isn't playing as well as he was and the defense is getting exposed again. I can't see them getting the run game going against the 49ers defense. Smith is going to have to play out of his mind for Seattle to move the football. I just don't see the Seahawks being able to keep pace. I like the 49ers to not just win and cover, but to win here convincingly. Give me San Francisco -3! |
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12-11-22 | Bucs v. 49ers -3 | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
9* NFL Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: San Francisco 49ers -3 I'll take my chances with the 49ers as a 3-point home favorite against the Bucs. I think we are getting some exceptional value here with San Francisco, largely due to the market not really knowing what to make of the 49ers being down to 3rd string QB Brock Purdy. I was impressed with what I saw out of Purdy in relief of Garoppolo in last week's 33-17 win over the Dolphins. He went 25 of 37 for 210 yards and 2 TDs. Much like Garoppolo, he's not going to be asked to shoulder the load. They are going to get the ball out of his hands quick and let their playmakers do the rest. It also helps having one of the league's best defenses. I'm not buying the Bucs two late TD drives against the Saints as some sign that this offense is going to break out. I don't think there's any fixing Tampa Bay's offense. I really think the 49ers defense is going to torment Brady and the Bucs in this one. Give me the 49ers -3! |
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12-11-22 | Jets +10 v. Bills | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
9* NFL Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: New York Jets +10 I'll take my chances with the Jets as a 10-point road dog against the Bills. These two teams already played once in New York, with the Jets winning that game 20-17 as a 10.5-point home dog. They did so with Zach Wilson as their starting QB. I'm not saying their new starter, Mike White, is this elite guy, but he's a massive upgrade over Wilson. Not just on the field, but I think there's a different mindset with the entire team now that Wilson isn't the guy under center. White led the Jets to a 31-10 win over the Bears in his first start and then really should have gotten them a big road win at the Vikings last week. New York ended up losing that game 22-27, despite outgaining the Vikings 486-287. We saw the Jets' defense really give Josh Allen and that Bills offense some troubles in the first meeting and I expect more of the same this time around. Buffalo to me is just being way overvalued coming off a big win and cover in a prime time game against the Patriots. Give me the Jets +10! |
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12-11-22 | Jaguars v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 36-22 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
10* AFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tennessee Titans -3.5 I can't help myself but to lay it with the Titans at home against the Jaguars. I just don't understand all the Jacksonville love from the oddsmakers this season. Jacksonville is just 2-7 SU and 2-7 ATS over their last 9 games, yet are being treated here like they are the same playing field as the Titans. Not to mention Tennessee just seems to be a team that year in and year out get no respect. Titans were the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year and yet are 8-4 ATS this year. Tennessee is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and those 3 losses are to the Chiefs by 3, the Bengals by 4 and then last week's ugly 25-point loss at the Eagles. I get it the loss was bad, but that was a tough matchup for the Titans. It's not going to be as tough on their offense against the Jags. This is also a Jaguars offense that has scored 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 6 games. One exception was they scored 27 on an awful Raiders defense. They also had 28 in that crazy win over the Ravens at home a couple weeks back. Jacksonville had just 10-points in that game with under 6 minutes to play. I also look at the head-to-head in this series, which has been dominated by the Titans. Tennessee has won the last 5 meetings with each of the last 3 wins combing by at least 18 points. Give me the Titans -3.5! |
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12-05-22 | Saints +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: New Orleans Saints +3.5 I'll take my chances with the Saints as a 3.5-point road dog against the Buccaneers. I just feel like 3.5 is too many points to pass up in a matchup that doesn't figure to see a ton of offense. The biggest thing for me is I just don't trust this Tampa Bay offense to get this thing turned around. The offensive line has been a major problem for the Bucs this season and it suffered a massive blow in last week's loss to the Browns, losing starting right tackle Tristan Wirfs 3-4 weeks to an ankle injury. That combined with Tampa Bay's inability to run the football, really puts them behind the 8-ball against a New Orleans defense that ranks in the Top 10 in the NFL against the pass and is T-10th in sacks with 33. You also got to look at how much Brady and this Bucs offense has struggled against this Saints defense even in previous years when they were putting up big numbers on the offensive side of the ball. Tampa Bay won the previous meeting 20-10, but keep in mind that game was 3-3 midway thru the 4th quarter before Jameis Winston threw an interception on 3 consecutive drives. New Orleans is 20-8 ATS last 28 on the road when revenging a same season loss and 17-5 ATS last 22 when revenging a road loss where they score 14 or fewer points. Give me the Saints +3.5! |
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12-04-22 | Dolphins v. 49ers -4.5 | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
8* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: San Francisco 49ers -4.5 I'll take my chances with San Francisco laying 4.5 at home against Miami. I just got a feeling this Dolphins team isn’t as good as what people think. Miami has won 5 straight since Tua’s return from a concussion and are 8-0 this season when he starts and finishes a game. It’s impressive, but at the same time, this team could very easily be 4-4 in Tua’s 8 full starts this year. They had a ridiculous 42-38 win at Baltimore, where they trailed 14-35 going into the 4th quarter. They were outgained 497 to 212 in a 21-19 win at home over the Bills, trailed by doubled-digits in the 2nd half at Detroit and barely snuck out a 3-point win against the Bears. The other 4 wins were against the Patriots, Steelers, Browns and Texans. I also think this team has feasted on some bad defenses and outside of the 4th quarter against the Ravens have struggled against the better defensive teams. I think a 49ers defense that can get pressure without blitzing can really cause some problems for Tua and this offense, especially when you factor in how good this San Francisco defense is against the run. I get the 49ers offense isn’t anything special and certainly didn’t play up to their potential in last week’s 13-0 win at home against the Saints, but let’s not forget they did have to play that game on just 6 days of rest after playing the previous week in Mexico City. This is not a very good Dolphins defense. Give me the 49ers -4.5! |
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12-04-22 | Steelers +1 v. Falcons | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* NFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Pittsburgh Steelers +1 I'll take my chances with the Steelers as a slim 1-point road dog against the Falcons. I don't understand the lack of respect for Pittsburgh and why more people aren't betting them against what I think is a very overrated Falcons team. The Steelers are coming in off an impressive 24-17 road win over the Colts and have been playing much better over the last month than they were early on. I get they are just 3-3 in their last 6 games, but the 3 losses have come against the Dolphins, Eagles and Bengals with both games against Miami and Philly on the road. This couldn't be a better matchup for them defensively, as they are very physical upfront and aren't going to just let teams run it down their throat. Running the football is really all this Atlanta offense can do. The Falcons are averaging a mere 155 passing yards/game for the season. Not only do they not put up numbers, but they don't have the weapons to even threaten this Steelers defense thru the air. I also think this Falcons team is overvalued from their ridiculous ATS run to start the year. Atlanta started out the season a perfect 6-0 ATS. They are 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games. They are also just 2-4 SU over their last 6 and the two wins are a 3-point win at home over the Panthers and a 3-point win at home against the Bears. Give me the Steelers +1! |
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11-28-22 | Steelers v. Colts -2 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
9* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Indianapolis Colts -2 I'll take my chances with the Colts as a 2-point home favorite against the Steelers on Monday Night Football. I've really liked what I've seen out of Indianapolis in the two games since Jeff Saturday took over as interim head coach. This has looked more like the team that we expected to see coming into the year, yet I still think they are being priced like the team that has a 4-6-1 record. In the two game under Saturday, the Colts have went on the road and beat the Raiders 25-20 as a 4.5-point dog and lost 16-17 at home to the Eagles as a 7-point dog. I backed Indy in both of those games. The defense has been outstanding in both of those games. They held the Raiders to 77 rushing yards and just 309 total yards. They held the Eagles to just 141 rushing yards and 314 total yards. I think they will be able to keep Pittsburgh from running the football and I just don't have a lot of faith in Kenny Pickett to make the plays needed on the road for Pittsburgh to win this game. I'm not saying it will be easy for Indy's offense. I do have my concerns with that o-line trying to pass protect against T.J. Watt. However, we have seen the Colts get back to running the ball with Taylor since Saturday took over and I think he will be able to do enough to take some of the pressure off of Ryan in this one. Give me the Colts -2! |
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11-27-22 | Bears v. Jets -4 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 133 h 57 m | Show | |
9* NFL Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER: New York Jets -4 I'll take my chances with the Jets as a 4-point home favorite against the Bears. This to me is a no-brainer. The ONLY reason that Chicago has been competitive of late has been the play of quarterback Justin Fields. He's been absolutely tormenting defenses with his legs. I think there's a good chance he doesn't even play in this game. Fields is listed as questionable with a pretty bad injury to his non-throwing shoulder. It really doesn't make sense for Chicago to risk playing him, as they are completely out of it at 3-8. Also, even if he were to play, I don't think he would be very effective. Fields' ability to pick up yards with his legs has been what's transformed this Chicago offense into one of the highest scoring in the league over the last month. Bears are averaging well over 200 rushing yards/game over their last 6 games. I just don't see him being as willing to run the ball if he's got a banged up shoulder. Not to mention, if he does, there's a good chance he reinjures it and has to leave the game. Problem for Chicago is they needs Fields and that offense to be great for them to be competitive, because their defense has been terrible since trading away Quinn and Smith. Lastly, this is a great buy-low spot on the Jets, whose last three games have come against the Patriots, Bills and Patriots. New York is also likely a little undervalued at home. Jets have played what has to be the toughest home schedule so far this season, as their 5 homes to this point have been against the Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Patriots and Bills. Give me the Jets -4! |
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11-27-22 | Bengals -1 v. Titans | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 133 h 59 m | Show |
10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR: Cincinnati Bengals -1 I'll take my chances with the Bengals as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Titans. You would expect Tennessee to be favored in this one, given the Titans are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS over their last 8 games. The betting public has caught on to this team and now everyone is looking to play Tennessee in this matchup. It's a big reason why I'm loading up on the Bengals. The books know what they are doing with this line and this is a Cincinnati team that has been really good since that 0-2 start. Bengals are 6-2 in their last 8 games, covering the spread in 7 of those. This is also a Bengals team that is dangerously close to having the best record in the AFC, as 3 of their 4 losses have come by a field goal or less. Their only real bad loss all season was that 13-32 loss at Cleveland a few weeks ago, but that was their first game without Jamar Chase and the offense just looked lost. They put up 42 the following week against the Panther sand then 37 last week against a really good Pittsburgh defense that recently got T.J. Watt. It's unfortunate Joe Mixon won't be able to play in this game for Cincinnati, but all signs point to the Bengals getting back Chase. Either way, I like Burrow to carve up this soft Titans secondary. I also think it's a good matchup for the Cincinnati defense, as they aren't terrible against the run and without the run game working in full force, this Tennessee offense doesn't have a lot to offer. Give me the Bengals -1! |
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11-24-22 | Patriots +3 v. Vikings | Top | 26-33 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 36 m | Show |
10* NFL Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH: New England Patriots +3 I will gladly take my chances with the Patriots as a 3-point road dog against the Vikings. I played against Minnesota last week in their 40-3 loss to the Cowboys and I'm going to play against them against New England for a lot of the same reasons. I just don't think the Vikings are that great of a football team. Prior to their loss to the Cowboys, the Vikings had won 7 straight games and probably should have lost at least 3 of those, given all 7 of those were decided by one score and several of which they had to rally late for the win. They haven't really been great on either side of the ball. They come in averaging 22.9 ppg and 338 ypg, which is basically what their opponents give up on average (22.3 ppg and 338 ypg). Defensively they are giving up 389 ypg and 6.2 yards/play vs teams that on average only put up 358 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. I really have concerns with their offense against a stingy Pats defense. New England doesn't give up much of anything on the ground. The only team to rush for more than 78 yards against them in their last 5 games is the Bears and almost all of that was Justin Fields. As for the passing game, you know Belichick is going to do everything in his power to take Justin Jefferson out of the picture. Lastly, you simply can't ignore how bad Kirk Cousins has been in prime time games. I just don't think the Vikings can win without him being great, because I think this New England offense will have no problem moving the ball against what I think is a pretty bad Minnesota defense. Give me the Patriots +3! |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys -1 v. Vikings | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 73 h 26 m | Show |
10* NFL Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Dallas Cowboys -1 I'll take my chances with the Cowboys as a slim 1-point road favorite against the Vikings. This line really says it all. Minnesota is sitting at 8-1, riding a 7-game win streak and fresh off a win over the Bills and yet are a home dog to a Cowboys team that is coming off an ugly loss to the Packers. This line is begging you to take Minnesota, which is why we are doing exactly the opposite and laying it big on Dallas. I get all wins count the same in the NFL, but there's not a luckier team thru the first 10 weeks of the season than the Vikings. Minnesota could just as easily be coming into this game with a losing record, as there are at least a handful of games that could of went the other way. Just in their last two games they have trailed by double-digits in the 4th quarter. It's not just the fluke wins and the line that has me betting against the Vikings. I also think this is a brutal spot for Minnesota coming off of that massive and unthinkable OT win over the Bills. It's just not easy bouncing back from an emotional victory like that and on the other side you have a Cowboys team that has to be chomping at the bit after how they blew that game last week against Green Bay. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Dallas ended up winning this game going away. Give me the Cowboys -1! |
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11-20-22 | Raiders v. Broncos -2.5 | 22-16 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 16 m | Show | |
8* NFL - Sharp Money ATS ANNIHILATOR: Denver Broncos -2.5 I'll take my chances with the Broncos as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Raiders. I can't believe I'm playing Denver, as there's not much to like about with how this team has performed in 2022. Russell Wilson just hasn't lived up to the hype at all. That's just it. This is more of a play against the Raiders than it is a play on the Broncos. Las Vegas is an absolute mess. After last week's 20-25 loss at home to the Colts, who had an ESPN analyst as their interim head coach, the Raiders fell to 2-7 and whatever hope they had of turning this season around and getting back in the playoff picture was completely lost. Just look at how Derek Carr was crying after the game. He knows this season is over and to make matters worse he basically called out some of his teammates for not giving it their all. I just don't see how the Raiders aren't a bigger dog on the road in this game. As bad as Wilson and the Broncos have been, let's not forget that the one game Russ actually looked like his old self was an earlier matchup against the Raiders. I also think we saw some promising signs in last week's loss to the Titans. Tennessee is playing as well as any team in the league right now and the Broncos led the majority of that game and outgained the Titans 313-307. They completely shutdown Henry, limiting him to just 53 yards on 19 carries and if you can keep the Raiders from getting their run game going they don't offer much of a threat, especially with Waller and Renfrow sidelined. This is also a Denver defense that has held each of their last 5 opponents under 20 points. Give me the Broncos -2.5! |
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11-20-22 | Jets v. Patriots -3 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 70 h 14 m | Show | |
9* NFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: New England Patriots -3 I'll take my chances with the Patriots as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Jets. I just don't understand the lack of respect for New England in this one. These two teams played back in Week 8 in New York with the Patriots winning that game 22-17. They won that game without the offense being able to get anything going, which I think is why some people are liking the Jets to get their revenge. Not me, especially not with the horrible passing conditions. It's going to be hard for either team to move the ball thru the air, as winds are expected to be a minimum of 25 mpg with gust pushing 40 mph. This game is going to come down to who can have more success running the ball. If you remember back to that Week 8 matchup, almost all of New York's offense came thru the air. The Jets had just 51 rushing yards. New England on the other hand had 127. I just think it really gives a strong edge to the Patriots, especially with the game this time being played in New England. I also feel that while both teams have had two weeks to prepare after a bye week, that's a bigger edge to the Pats, who have the much better coaching staff. Give me New England -3! |
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11-20-22 | Eagles v. Colts +7 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 70 h 58 m | Show | |
8* NFL Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Indianapolis Colts +7 I'll take my chances with the Colts as a 7-point home dog against the Eagles on Sunday. While everyone was bashing Indy's decision to go out and hire ESPN analyst Jeff Saturday to be their interim head coach, I thought it presented a great spot to back the Colts against the Raiders and Indy delivered in a 25-20 win as a 5-point dog. I could be stepping in it here with Indy this week against an Eagles team that will be looking to bounce back from their 21-32 upset loss at home to the Commanders on Monday Night Football, which put to rest all the talk about this team going undefeated. So be it. I just think there's too much value to pass up at this price. It's not as easy as people think for a team to rebound after that first loss to snap a long winning streak. Philly is also in a tough spot here having to play on a short week. As for Saturday, say what you want about his lack of experience and I'm sure there will be those that point to the fact that it was the Raiders who they beat. I get it, but to me it was more than that. This looked more like the Colts team we expected to see from the start of the year. Was it just a coincidence that in Saturday's first game as coach, Jonathan Taylor had a monster game with 147 yards on 22 attempts. His first 100+ yard performance since Week 1 against the Texans. Was it also a coincidence that Matt Ryan had one of his cleanest games of the year, getting hit just once the entire game while completing 21 of 28 attempts for 222 yards. Maybe so, but Saturday was a damn good offensive linemen in his day and he learned how to read defenses from one of the best to ever do it at quarterback in Peyton Manning. If by chance he did figure something out with that offensive line, which was hands down the biggest thing that was holding this team back, the Colts aren't just going to be a great position to cover this spread, I could see them winning this game outright. Give me Indy +7! |
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11-17-22 | Titans +3.5 v. Packers | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
10* NFL Titans/Packers TNF VEGAS INSIDER: Tennessee Titans +3.5 I'll take my chances with the Titans as a 3.5-point road dog against the Packers on Thursday Night Football to kickoff Week 11. I'm just not ready to buy Green Bay as a team that has figured it out. I think we are seeing a big overreaction to the Packers 31-28 OT win over the Cowboys in Week 10. Great win, but let's not forget the Packers trailed 14-28 in the 4th quarter of that game. They also had just 186 total yards with less than 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Yes, rookie wide out Christian Watson had a bit of a breakout game with 3 TD catches, but he only caught 4 passes the entire game. This is still a Packers offense that needs to be able to run the football to have success and the Titans aren't exactly the defense you want to try and run against. Tennessee is No. 2 in the NFL, giving up just 85.1 yards/game and 3.9 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, we all know the Titans offense goes with Derrick Henry and this is not a great Packers run D. Green Bay is 26th in the NFL giving up 140.6 rush yards/game. This is also a Tennessee team that seems to play their best in big games like this. We saw it a couple weeks ago in there near upset of the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Titans are also an incredible 20-7 ATS as a dog of 3 or more since he became their head coach. Give me Tennessee +3.5! |
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11-13-22 | Colts +5 v. Raiders | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 3 m | Show | |
8* NFL - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Indianapolis Colts +5 I'm going to take my chances with the Colts as a 5-point road dog against the Raiders. I could be dead wrong here, but I just can't help myself but to take the points with Indy in this game. There's so much negativity going on with the Colts right now, as everyone thinks they are nuts for hiring Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach. I just don't think it's as big a deal as what it's being made out to be. How much worse can it really get with Indy? Unless there's some behind the scenes initiative to tank for a better draft pick, I actually think we are going to get one of the best efforts of the season from Indy. I think a coaching change adds a sense of urgency across the board and this Colts defense, which has been playing really well, should bring their "A" game in this one. As for the offense. I don't know if Saturday can really do a lot given how bad the offensive line is, but if there's a guy that can maybe work some magic with an offensive line, it might be him. He was an outstanding center, who learned how to decipher defenses from one of the best to ever do it in Peyton Manning. Lastly, this Raiders team is an absolute dumpster fire right now. They just put Waller and Renfroe on IR and had one of their better linebackers retire midseason. If anyone isn't deserving of being a head coach it's Josh McDaniels. I just don't think there's a lot of fight left in this Raiders team and wouldn't be shocked at all if Indy won this game rather convincingly. Give me the Colts +5! |
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11-13-22 | Saints v. Steelers +1.5 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show | |
9* NFL - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 I'll take the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 1.5-point home dog against the New Orleans Saints. I'm a little bit surprised the Steelers are a home dog in this one. I get Pittsburgh is just 1-6 in their last 7 games, but it's not like New Orleans has been that much better. The Saints are 2-6 in their last 8 and 3-6 ATS for the season. New Orleans has also not won a road game since their 27-26 win at Atlanta in Week 1, which they had no business winning, as they were down by as many as 16 in the 4th quarter. They will be at a huge rest disadvantage in this game, as they will be on a short week after playing the Ravens on MNF in Week 9, while Pittsburgh hasn't played in two weeks after their bye in Week 9. Pittsburgh is also expected to getting back their best player in defensive end T.J. Watt. The record is night and day with Watt on the field for the Steelers. The one game he played this year, they went on the road and beat the Bengals as a 7-point dog. They are also expected to get back safety Damontae Kazee, who they signed in free agency and was a standout in training camp. Kazee hasn't played a game since injuring his forearm in the final preseason game. Corner Levi Wallace should also be back from a shoulder injury and newly acquired corner William Jackson III could make his debut with the team. I think with just Watt coming back this Steelers defense quickly becomes one of the Top 5 defensive teams in the league. I also look at how much trouble the Saints offensive line had blocking an aging Justin Houston last week. No way are they going to be able to keep Watt out of their backfield. As for the Steelers offense, I know it's not been anything to write home about this year. However, it's also not been a very favorable slate in terms of the caliber of defenses played. Pittsburgh has faced one team, the Dolphins, who rank outside the Top 15 in total defense. Just to give you a comparison, the Saints have played 7 of their 9 games against teams who rank 20th or worse in total defense, 6 of which rank in the bottom 10. New Orleans has allowed 27 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. The only exception being the Raiders, who they shutout a couple weeks ago. The wrong team is favored in this game. Give me the Steelers +1.5! |
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11-13-22 | Broncos v. Titans -1.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 57 m | Show | |
9* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Tennessee Titans -1.5 I will take my chances with the Titans as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Broncos. I think there's a perception here that Tennessee is going to suffer a letdown coming off that emotional loss to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 10. Plus, there's the perception that Denver has a big edge here coming off of their bye week. I'm just not buying it. I just don't see how this Denver offense is going to be able to get anything going against this Tennessee defense. It's crazy how little respect this Titans team has gotten, despite what they have accomplished over the last few seasons under Vrable. I don't think Denver is going to be able to stop Henry, which is the one thing you have to be able to do if you are going to slow down Tennessee's offense. I also have some concerns with the mindset of this Broncos defense after the team traded away star pass rusher Chubb. Give me the Titans -1.5! |
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11-13-22 | Seahawks +3 v. Bucs | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 65 h 23 m | Show | |
8* NFL Seahawks/Bucs Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER: Seattle Seahawks +3 I'll take my chances with the Seahawks as a 3-point underdog against the Bucs in Sunday's early game in Munich. I think the wrong team is favored in this one. I backed the Bucs and got the win last week against the Rams, but that was an extremely fortunate win and cover for Tampa Bay. It just isn't getting any better for Tom Brady and the Bucs offense. Their inability to run the football and poor offensive line play continues to be a major problem. Now they face a Seattle defense that has went from being one of the worst defenses in the league to a very competent team on that side of the ball. In their last 4 games the Seahawks have held the Cardinals to 9, Chargers to 23, Giants to 13 and the Cardinals to 13. On the flip side, Geno Smith and the Seattle offense continue to impress. Seahawks have scored 27 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. I know the numbers look good for Tampa Bay's defense, but this is not as good a unit as people think. They have really benefited lately by playing a bunch of bad offenses. Give me the Seahawks +3! |
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11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
9* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Carolina Panthers +2.5 I'll take my chances with the Panthers as a 2.5-point home dog against the Falcons on Thursday Night Football. I'm not so sure the right team is favored in this game. It just feels like this line is a big overreaction to what we saw last week out of this Carolina team. The Panthers haven't been any good, but last week's 21-42 loss to the Bengals was arguably their worst showing of the season. The final score doesn't even do justice to how bad Carolina played, as Cincinnati had 35-0 lead at the half. It was so bad that it's like everyone is ignoring how the game played out between these two teams in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago. A game Carolina ended up losing 34-37 in OT, yet would have won in regulation had D.J. Moore not took off his helmet and forced the PAT to be pushed back 15 yards (missed). They also had a 32-yard missed field goal in OT that would have won the game. NFL teams have a way of responding in a big way after an embarrassing loss like that and I think it definitely helps this game being in prime time, as that will also get them excited to play when there's really not much to play for. One last thing, I think this could be a tough spot for Atlanta. Not just playing on the road on just 3 days of rest, but coming off that gut-wrenching loss to the Chargers, where they forced a fumble late that looked to set them up for a game-winning field goal, only to have the player re-fumble the ball back to the Chargers, which set LA up for the game-winning field goal. Give me the Panthers +2.5! |
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11-06-22 | Rams v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 74 h 49 m | Show |
10* NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH: Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5 I'll take my chances with the Buccaneers as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Rams. I just feel like this is the ultimate buy-low spot on Tom Brady and the Bucs. Tampa Bay has went from a team the public would bet blindly no matter what the spread was, to a team they want absolutely nothing to do with. Hard to blame them, given the Bucs are a dismal 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. Maybe I'm stepping in it with Brady and the Bucs on Sunday, but to me there's so much value here with Tampa Bay. While some teams might be already looking to next year after a 3-5, everything is still right in front of the Bucs, as they have lucked out with how bad the other 3 teams in the NFC South are. The Falcons currently lead this division with a 4-4 record and I don't see Atlanta being the team on top when it's all said and done. I'm not sure Brady and the Bucs offense are going to ever end up developing into the juggernaut we saw his first two years with Tampa Bay, but this is not a game or spread where I think the offense has to be great for them to cover. The Rams have been just as disappointing as the Bucs in terms of how their offense has performed vs expectations. LA comes into this game averaging just 16.9 ppg and 297 yards/game which is noticeably worse than the 18.3 ppg and 333 ypg the Bucs are averaging. The only real offensive weapon the Rams have had is wide out Cooper Kupp, but he injured his ankle on the final play in last week's loss to the 49ers. It does appear that Kupp is going to try to give it a go, but I can't imagine he's going to be anywhere close to 100% and if he's not dominating, I just don't know where the offense comes from. It's now or never for the Bucs and I believe they get the job done. Give me Tampa Bay -2.5! |
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11-06-22 | Panthers +7.5 v. Bengals | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 48 m | Show | |
9* NFL Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MITAKE: Carolina Panthers +7.5 I'll take my chances with the Panthers catching 7.5-points on the road against the Bengals. Carolina has looked like a different team since trading away McCaffrey and shockingly they have really improved on the ground since McCaffrey left. In the two games without him they have rushed for 173 yards against Tampa Bay and 169 yards against the Falcons. They should be able to keep that going against a Bengals defense that is giving up 126 rush yards/game and 4.4 yards/carry. The other big thing for me is the Bengals are being way overvalued without their top offensive weapon in Jamar Chase. In their first game without Chase, Cincinnati managed just 13 points and 229 yards of total offense against the Browns last week. Joe Burrow, who had just thrown for 459 yards the previous game against the Falcons, threw for just 193. Some of that was the Bengals offensive line not being able to keep the Browns out of the backfield, but I expect more of that against Brian Burns and the Panthers defensive front. I just think given the situation, 7.5 points is way too many. Give me Carolina +7.5! |
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11-06-22 | Raiders -1.5 v. Jaguars | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 47 m | Show | |
8* NFL Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 I'll take my chances with the Raiders as a slim 1.5-point road favorite against the Jaguars in Week 9. The line here really says it all, as we have Las Vegas laying points on the road after they just had arguably the worst showing of any team all season in last week's 24-0 loss at New Orleans. The Raiders didn't even get the ball past midfield until the final minutes of the 4th quarter. The key thing to note with that showing is Las Vegas was dealing with the flu bug and it's really the only thing that could explain that pitiful performance. The only other thing is if this team has just thrown in the towel on this season, but I can't see that being the case this early on. My money is on the Raiders to put that ugly showing behind them with one of their best showings of the season Sunday against a Jags team that just keeps finding ways to lose. Since their big 38-10 upset win at the Chargers back in Week 3, Jacksonville has proceeded to lose 6 straight games. In terms of talent, I don't think this one is that close. The Raiders are as talented of a 2-win team as you will find going into Week 9 of a season. I just trust them to find a way to win this game to save their season. Give me Las Vegas -1.5! |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans +13.5 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Houston Texans +13.5 I'll take my chances with the Texans as a 13.5-point home dog against the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. As difficult as it may be to back Houston in this game, I just feel like there's too much value to pass up. As good as the Eagles are, it's not easy going on the road and playing up to your true potential in a Thursday game. The other big concern I have with Philly is the mindstate of this team coming in. It's been a bit of a cakewalk for the Eagles so far in 2022. They are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS, coming off a 35-13 win over the Steelers and facing what many feel is the worst team in the league. It's going to be hard for them to take the Texans seriously and for as bad as Houston has been, they have shown they can be competitive. Only game they have lost by more than the number here is a few weeks back against the Raiders and that was a 20-20 game at the half. Road favorites who are outscoring teams by 10+ points/game and off a win by 10 or more points have gone a mere 17-46 (27%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. On the flip side, Underdogs who have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and facing an opponent that has covered 3 of their last 4 are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Texans +13.5! |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns +3.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 31 h 6 m | Show |
10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Cleveland Browns +3.5 I'll take my chances with Cleveland as a 3.5-point home dog against the Bengals. Hard to not like a division home dog in prime time, especially one that I think is fairly evenly matched. The Browns are just 2-5, but could very easily have a winning record. They had that crazy loss to the Jets in Week 2 and then 3 of their other 4 losses have all come by a field goal or less. The Bengals have got things going after their 0-2 start, but now Joe Burrow is down his biggest weapon in wide out Ja'Maar Chase. Not that the Bengals don't have other quality receivers, Chase is in a different class. He's Burrow's go to guy when things get bad. Chase has 16 more catches, 150 more yards and 3 more TDs than the next best guy. On the flip side, I like the Browns to be able to run the ball against this Bengals' defense. Cincinnati is giving up 119 ypg and 4.6 yards/carry on the ground. Which spikes to 142 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the road. Browns average 164 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the ground. I just think there's way too much value here with Cleveland catching more than a field goal. Give me the Browns +3.5! |
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10-30-22 | Bears +9.5 v. Cowboys | 29-49 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 6 m | Show | |
8* NFL Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Chicago Bears +9.5 I will gladly take my chances with the Bears as a 9.5-point road dog against the Cowboys. Not many times a team coming off a 33-14 win as a 8.5-point dog will stay undervalued, but that's exactly the case here with Chicago. The Bears are getting no love for their blowout win on the road against New England on Monday Night Football. Some of that has to do with what we have seen prior to that game from Chicago. A lot also has to do with the opponent being the Cowboys, who are one of the biggest public teams in the league. Not to mention Dallas has covered 5 of their last 6 and just won 24-6 as a 7-point favorite in Dak's first game back last week against the Lions. There was definitely value with Dallas when Dak was injured, as backup Cooper Rush played as well as you could have asked for. I know it was his first game back after a long layoff, but I was not impressed with Dak against a Lions defense he should have feasted on. If Detroit doesn't turn the ball over on 5 times in the 2nd half of that game, the Lions easily cover and potentially win outright. Keep in mind Detroit had 1st and Goal from the 1-yard line down just 6-10 in the 4th quarter and fumbled the ball on their first attempt to score. It was all downhill from there. It's not going to be any easier on the Cowboys offense against an underrated Bears defense. One that should only get better if Chicago continues to run the football like they have. After putting up 238 rushing yards against the Commanders, the Bears had 243 rushing yards on the road against a Belichick led defense that knew coming in they just needed to stop the run to keep that offense in check. Fields looked as comfortable as I have seen him and I'm willing to roll the dice at this price that he's able to build off that performance. Give me Chicago +9.5! |
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10-30-22 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 71 h 19 m | Show |
10* NFL NFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Carolina Panthers +4 I'll gladly take my chances with the Panthers as a 4-point road dog against division rival Atlanta on Sunday. Just about everyone, including myself, had written this Panthers team off. I thought after firing head coach Matt Rhule and benching Baker Mayfield we were going to see a different team and they came out that first game under interim head coach Steve Wilks and lost 10-24 at the Rams, totaling just 203 yards of total offense. Who would have thought trading away wide out Robby Anderson and star running back Christian McCaffrey would be the spark this team needed, but they delivered in a big way without those two, beating the Bucs 21-3 as a 13-point dog last Sunday. The first game without McCaffrey and they rushed for a season-high 173 yards. PJ Walker was also an efficient 16 of 22 passing. It certainly seemed to give life to a Panthers' defense that was playing extremely well early on while the offense struggled. I like that defense to not only carry them to cover but an outright win against the Falcons. Atlanta's offense has not been the same since losing Cordarrelle Patterson. He's missed the last 3 games and still leads the team with 340 rushing yards. I also think people got so caught it up in Atlanta covering the spread, they ignored how bad this Falcons offense has been. Marcus Mariota has thrown for 462 yards in his last 4 games combined. He had a mere 107 passing yards in a blowout loss last week to the Bengals and 75 of those yards came on one pass play. Give me the Panthers +4! |
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10-30-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 4 m | Show |
10* NFL NFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: New England Patriots -2.5 I will gladly take my chances with the Patriots as a 2.5-point road favorite against the Jets. A lot of people might be left scratching their head to why New England is favored in this game. The Pats are coming off a 14-33 loss at home to the Bears as a 8.5-point favorite, while New York has won and covered each of their last 4 games. I might be dead wrong here and the Jets will find a way to win this game, but I think this is the perfect time to sell-high on New York. During the Jets 4-game win streak they have beat a broken Denver team without starting quarterback Russell Wilson, a broken Packers team, a Dolphins team that was down to 3rd string QB Skylar Thompson and a Steelers team that isn't very good. Their only other win is that crazy comeback in the final minutes vs the Browns in Week 2. Not only do I think the Jets are being overvalued coming into this game, they also have to try and figure out how to keep their offensive afloat after losing stud rookie running back Breece Hall, who had rushed for 463 yards (5.8 yards/carry) and 4 TDs. Hall also had 218 yards receiving. I know they traded for James Robinson, but I'm not buying he's going to make a huge impact in his first game. Keep in mind this is a Jets' offense that has been all run of late. New York has just 391 total passing yards in their last 3 games combined. All of that and the Jets are having to go up against what I going to be a pissed off Patriots defense that was just embarrassed on their home field in prime time on Monday Night Football. I will be shocked if this game is even remotely close. Give me the Pats -2.5! |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos -1 | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 46 m | Show | |
8* NFL Public Money ATS SHOCKER: Denver Broncos -1 You might think I'm crazy backing the Broncos with how they have struggled of late, but I just can't help myself here with Denver basically at a pick'em in this one. Just a few weeks ago this line would have been pushing a touchdown. Now after the Jets big road win over Green Bay and Denver coming off another awful offensive showing on MNF, the line has been way over-adjusted. The one thing that is getting way overlooked with this Denver team is their defense. The Broncos have held 5 of their 6 opponents this season to fewer than 20 points and yet are just 2-4 in those games. I think their defense and playing at home is enough to carry them to a win in this game. I also think as bad as the Broncos offense has been, there have been some flashes of what they could become. This will never be the elite offense we all expected when Denver landed Wilson in the trade with Seattle, but I'm confident it won't continue to be as bad as it's been. The Jets have went from being a team everyone thought was terrible to now having to play with expectations. That can be a difficult thing to do and it would not surprise me in the least if New York laid an egg in this game. Keep in mind this is their second straight game on the road and 3rd time in the last 4 weeks they are playing on the road. Not to mention they got a big home game against their hated rivals in New England looming on deck next week. Give me the Broncos -1! |
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10-23-22 | Lions +7 v. Cowboys | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 39 m | Show | |
9* NFL - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Detroit Lions +7 I like the value with the Lions catching a full 7-points on the road against the Cowboys. I just feel like Dallas is coming into this game way overpriced because of Dak's return from injury. Everyone is just assuming that the Cowboys are going to be better because he's back, but I gotta see it to believe it. The offense did not look good with him in Week 1 and it was like they ran a completely different offense with Cooper Rush. They just try to force the pass too much with Dak. I also don't love the spot for Dallas, as they put in a lot to last week's big division showdown with the Eagles on Sunday Night Football. While the Cowboys' could be a bit flat, we should get an A+ effort from the Lions in this one. Detroit is coming off of their bye week and should be extremely motivated given they went into their bye with a 29-0 loss at New England. The offense did play well against the Patriots, but they were without Swift and star wide out Amon-Ra St. Brown was playing at less than 100%. Both are expected to be on the field Sunday. Detroit is a team that also just doesn't go away and have thrived in this spot under head coach Campbell. Lions are 9-2 ATS under Campbell as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after a game where they scored 14 or fewer points. Give me Detroit +7! |
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10-23-22 | Packers -4.5 v. Washington Commanders | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 27 m | Show | |
8* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Green Bay Packers -4.5 I might be kicking myself tomorrow afternoon after this game gets going, but there's no way I'm passing up on the Packers laying less than a touchdown at Washington. This is a bad Commanders team that is extremely limited on the offensive side of the ball. Forget about the Packers offensive struggles for a second. Green Bay is giving up just 299 total yards per game. Simply put, this is a big time buy-low spot on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay has lost 2 straight games. First it was the 2nd half collapse against the Giants in London, then it was an absolutely brutal showing at home against the Jets. If this team is anything close to what we thought coming into the year, they should respond in a big way in this game. I know they failed in this spot last week after their loss to the Giants, but it's worth noting that the Packers are a dominant 12-4 ATS in their last 16 off a SU loss. Green Bay is also 8-2 ATS last 10 after scoring 15 or fewer points and 4-1 ATS last 5 (doesn't happen often) when coming off a double-digit loss at home. Give me the Packers -4.5! |
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10-23-22 | Giants v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 40 m | Show |
10* NFL Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars -3 I really like the Jaguars as a 3-point home favorite. The books are begging the public to take the Giants in this one. New York is 5-1 and getting all kinds of praise from the media after knocking off the Packer and Ravens the last two weeks. Jags on the other hand are just 2-4 and riding a 3-game losing streak. It makes no sense that Jacksonville is a field goal favorite here. That tells me the books really like the Jags in this one and I'm on board. As good a story as the Giants have been, they are not exactly playing like a 5-1 team. In fact, this team is a lot closer to being 1-5 than most people realize. New York trailed the Titans 0-13 at the half in Week 1 and wound up winning the game 21-20 on a late TD. They barely squeaked by with a 19-16 win at home against an awful Panthers team. They led the Bears just 14-12 late in the 3rd quarter of a 20-12 win. They erased a double-digit 2nd half deficit in London in a 27-22 win over Green Bay. Last week they were down 10 midway thru the 4th quarter to the Ravens and won the game 24-20. I just think it's going to catch up to this team at some point and we should be getting the very best the Jags have to offer with them having lost their last 3. Even though they have taken a step back from their early season success, I still think this is a solid Jags team. Give me Jacksonville -3! |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
9* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Denver Broncos +5 I'll take my chances with the Broncos catching 5-points on the road against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. No one is going to want anything to do with betting Denver in this game. The Broncos haven't even come close to resembling the team that we expected to see when they landed Russell Wilson in a trade this past offseason. As bad as the offense has looked, I don't think it's in as bad a shape as what it's being made out to be. Denver has actually moved the ball well at times. They are gaining 343.6 ypg and 5.7 yards/play. They have just been historically bad whenever they get in the red zone. They simply can't have that bad of luck in the red zone the rest of the way and I think this has the potential to be a breakout game for them. The Chargers defense has not been playing well at all of late. In LA's last 3 games, they are giving up a staggering 30.0 ppg and 400.7 ypg. The bigger thing to note is that the struggles have come against the likes of the Jaguars, Texans and Browns. On the other side of the ball, LA's offense has one of the top young quarterbacks in the NFL in Justin Herbert, but he's playing behind a banged up offensive line that has struggled some since losing starting left tackle Rashawn Slater. Denver has some pass rushers that should be able to exploit that o-line and one of the better secondaries in the game. Broncos are only giving up 177 passing yards/game. Division games have a way of coming down to the wire and I see this being one of those games that isn't decided until the final minutes of the 4th quarter. That makes Denver an easy play for me catching north of a field goal. Give me the Broncos +5! |
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10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | 24-20 | Loss | -120 | 89 h 4 m | Show | |
9* NFL No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR: Kansas City Chiefs +3 I will take the Chiefs as a 3-point home dog against the Bills in arguably the most anticipated regular-season game of the year after what took place last January between these two teams in the playoffs. All you are going to hear this week is about how Buffalo is going to get their revenge on KC after letting one get away in their 36-42 OT loss to the Chiefs. The biggest talking point being the Bills allowing Mahomes and the Chiefs to get a game tying field goal with just 13 seconds to work with. What people are quick to forget in that game is the Chiefs had a 23-14 lead late in the 3rd quarter. KC outgained the Bills 552 to 422. Not to mention Buffalo got as good a game out of a WR as you could have with Gabe Davis catching 8 passes for 201 yards and 4 scores. I just don't see KC letting Davis beat them over the top in this one. I also think that while the Chiefs secondary hasn't been great at times, KC's getting back stud rookie corner Trent McDuffie for this game and their pass rush compared to last year is vastly improved. I also think that for as much as Buffalo wants to win this game, the same could be said for Kansas City. All you have heard all offseason and thru the first 5 weeks is how good this Bills team is. How they are the team to beat and how Josh Allen is a lock for MVP. I don't think it's sat well with this team at all and there's no question that Patrick Mahomes takes notes on what people say. As good as Allen is, Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL and he'll do everything in his power to get them a win in this game. I think getting a field goal at home is too good to pass up. Give me the Chiefs +3! |
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10-16-22 | Panthers +10.5 v. Rams | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -120 | 89 h 53 m | Show |
10* NFL Situational PLAY OF THE MONTH: Carolina Panthers +10.5 I love the Panthers as a 10.5-point road dog against the Rams in Week 6. This to me is the ultimate buy-low spot with Carolina, who just fired head coach Matt Rhule and it looks like starting quarterback Baker Mayfield won't play with a high ankle sprain suffered in last week's ugly loss to the 49ers. All of that only makes me like the Panthers that much more in this spot. Teams always seem to respond with a huge effort in that first game after a head coach is fired and it certainly felt like Rhule had lost this team. As for Mayfield, I'm not so sure he should be playing if he was healthy. He's been awful thru the first 5 weeks and it doesn't feel like he's got a great rapport with his teammates. You also got to believe the inability of the offense to get anything going has worn on the defense, as they got talent on that side of the ball. I'm counting on Mayfield not being able to play, as I think the offense needs a new face. At the very least it's not a downgrade going from Mayfield to backup PJ Walker. On the flip side of this, I believe we are still seeing the Rams being way overvalued by the books after their Super Bowl win last year. LA is just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS, yet they haven't been more than a 2-point dog in any game. The offense relies way too much on Cooper Kupp and they not only can't run the ball, they don't even try to establish the run anymore. They have scored 20 or fewer points in all but one game. It's hard to win by double-digits when you aren't explosive on offense. Keep in mind that as bad as Mayfield and the Panthers offense has looked, they come into they are scoring 18.6 ppg. The Rams are averaging a mere 16.0 ppg. Both teams are averaging an identical 5.2 yards/play. I not only think Carolina will cover, I think they got a real shot here to win outright. Give me the Panthers +10.5! |
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10-16-22 | Cardinals v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 89 h 51 m | Show |
10* NFL NFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH: Seattle Seahawks +3 I will gladly take the Seahawks as a 3-point home dog against the Cardinals in Week 5. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out Seattle thus far this season. Everyone thought it was crazy that the Seahawks traded away a franchise QB the caliber of Russell Wilson, yet it's Wilson and the Broncos offense that is struggling while Seattle's offense is thriving under Geno Smith. If it wasn't for the defense being so bad, the Seahawks could easily be sitting here at 4-1. While the defense scares me to death in this matchup, I love Seattle here as a division home dog against a Cardinals team that is overrated and in a horrible spot. I'm not saying the defense is going to play well, but there is reason to think they will be competent in this matchup. With Arizona being a division rival, they know what Kyler Murray and that offense want to do. I also think bad defenses show much better at home where they can feed off the home crowd. As for the bad spot for Arizona, I think this team could have a tough time picking themselves up off the mat after last week's gut-wrenching 17-20 loss at home to the Eagles. Philly is getting hyped up as the best team in the NFC, rightfully so. That combined with them being undefeated has everyone lining up to give the Eagles their best shot. I think a prime example of this is what we saw from Jacksonville last week after their loss the Eagles the week before. The Jags played their worst game of the season and ended up losing at home to a bad Texans team. I also think you got to look at what Arizona has done as a whole this year. They should at the very least be 1-4 and aren't far from 0-5. They trailed 23-7 in a 39-23 OT win at Las Vegas in Week 2 and were tied 10-10 going into the 4th quarter of a 26-16 win over a Panthers team that has looked awful thru the first 5 weeks. I'm not so sure the right team is favored. Give me the Seahawks +3! |
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10-16-22 | Bucs v. Steelers +9.5 | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 86 h 4 m | Show | |
8* NFL Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Pittsburgh Steelers +9.5 I'll take my chances with the Steelers as a 9.5-point home dog against the Buccaneers. Great time to buy low on Pittsburgh, who is just 1-4 and fresh off an ugly 38-3 loss at Buffalo last week. We should get a big time effort from the Steelers after that awful showing. I also don't think you can overreact to that loss, given just how good the Bills are. If you remember back to MNF in Week 2, Buffalo absolutely destroyed the Titans 41-7. Everyone was saying how bad Tennessee was and the Titans have since won 3 straight games. As ugly as the final score was, 3-points was as bad as Pittsburgh could have done. Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett threw for 327 yards. The Steelers offense had the ball inside the Bills 40-yard line 6 times on their first 9 drives and only came away with 3 points. They turned it over on downs twice, missed two field goals and had another drive end in an interception. They also had another drive late in the 4th quarter where they got in the red zone and turned it over on downs. I don't think people who don't follow this team closely really understand how much better this offense is with Pickett instead of Mitch Trubisky. I also don't think the defense is as bad it showed in that game. They just had no answer for Josh Allen and that passing attack. Buffalo had 5 different receivers log a catch of 26 or more yards. Gabe Davis had a 98-yard and a 62-yard TD catch. Yes, it's Tom Brady on the other side this week, but this is not the same potent Tampa Bay offense that they have been the last two years. It's been better of late, but still lacks explosion. It's a lot of dink and dunk right now. Leonard Fournette led the team with 10 receptions and 83 yards last week. That's also not a very good Atlanta defense. Really the only time this offense has shown us anything is in Week 4 in a 31-41 loss at home to the Chiefs. Big thing to note about that is the Chiefs were up 38-17 in the final minute of the 4th quarter I just think when you factor in how motivated Pittsburgh will be, how underrated the offense is coming into this game, the Bucs not being an offensive juggernaut and how hard it is to win on the road in the NFL, you have to roll the dice with the Steelers at this price. Give me Pittsburgh +9.5! |
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10-16-22 | Jaguars +2.5 v. Colts | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 56 m | Show | |
9* NFL Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 I will gladly take the 2.5-points with the Jaguars in Sunday's road game against the Colts. I just don't know what Indianapolis has done to deserve to be favored in this spot. These two teams played back in Week 2 at Jacksonville and the Jaguars completely dominated that matchup from start to finish. Jacksonville won the game 24-0, with their defense limiting Indy to just 218 yards and 9 first downs. The key here is we are catching the Jags in a massive buy-low spot after last week's shocking 6-13 home loss to the Texans as a 7-point favorite. No one (including myself) was giving Houston any shot in that game. Needless to say the Jags burned a lot of people last week, whether they laid the big number on the spread, teased Jacksonville down to a near pick'em or backed them in survivor. The narrative has gone from this might be one of the surprise teams in the NFL to this is a team who overachieved early and is now showing it's true colors. Maybe I'm wrong, but I still think this is a pretty good football team. They outgained the Texans 422 to 248. Scoring just 6 points was the worst possible outcome given how well they moved the ball. You just have to wonder if there was not only a lack of respect given to Houston, but also a bit of a letdown coming off that tough loss at Philly the week before. Going back to the Colts. It's a miracle Indy isn't coming into this game at 0-5 and yet they are 2-2-1. Indy trailed 3-20 going into the 4th quarter and managed to pull out a 20-20 tie against the Texans in Week 1. The Chiefs couldn't have played any worse against the Colts in Week 3 and it still took a TD in the final seconds for Indy to win that game 20-17. If KC doesn't have an awful backup kicker they lose that game. Then there's last week's 12-9 OT win against the Broncos, which I'm sure most of you saw as it was the Thursday Night Football matchup. Denver gave that game to them in on silver platter. What's made the Colts so bad is the horrific play they are getting out of their offensive line. Indy's front five hasn't shown the ability to pass protect or run block. They tried to switch up the starting unit against the Broncos and it was just as bad as before. It's not getting any better and I just don't see how you can expect them to move this ball against this Jags defense. In their first meeting, the Jaguars sacked Matt Ryan 5 times and held Indy to just 54 yards rushing. Give me Jacksonville +2.5! |
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10-09-22 | Eagles -5 v. Cardinals | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 40 m | Show | |
9* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Philadelphia Eagles -5 Laying points on the road with a public favorite is typically a recipe for disaster in the NFL, but there's no way I'm not betting the Eagles laying less than a touchdown against the Cardinals I jus don't think Arizona is any good. I think for every great play Kyler Murray makes he makes 9 average plays. He also doesn't seem to show up early in games. I certainly don't think that Arizona offense is going to be able to do much against this Eagles defense. Philly comes in giving up just 17.8 ppg, but I think they are even better than that. They gave up 35 in Week 1 to the Lions, but most of that came in garbage time. Eagles led 31-14 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. They held a good Vikings offense to 7 points and gave up 8 in Week 3 to the Commanders (was 24-2 with less than 2 minutes to play). Last week they gave up 21 to the Jags, but 7 of those were from a pick six and Jacksonville had just 1 offensive TD midway thru the 4th quarter of that game. Even if Arizona's defense plays well, which I think is unlikely, I don't think their offense will do enough to cover. Cardinals defense has looked better the last 3 weeks after giving up 44 in their opener to the Chiefs, but their last 3 games have come against an AWFUL Panthers offense, struggling Rams offense and an underachieving Raiders offense. Philly's offense probably isn't as good as it's performed so far, but it's still one of the better offenses in the league. I would not be surprised if Hurts and company behind that great offensive line put up a big number in this one. Give me the Eagles -5! |
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10-09-22 | Lions v. Patriots -3 | 0-29 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
8* NFL Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER: New England Patriots -3 I'm shocked the Patriots are only 3-point favorites at home against the Lions. I know the Patriots are just 1-3 to start the year and are likely down to 3rd string quarterback Bailey Zappe. That's where the value comes from. It's not that surprising to me that the Patriots are 1-3. A lot of teams would be with their schedule. The Patriots have played road games against the Dolphins and Packers. Their other two were home games against the Steelers and Ravens. They beat Pittsburgh, but lost to Baltimore. I've actually thought New England has looked better than what I anticipated coming into the season. They outgained the Ravens 447 to 394 and had a lead in the 2nd half of that game. They also lost in OT at Lambeau. This game against the Lions will technically be Zappe's first start, but he pretty much played the whole game against the Packers. Backup Brian Hoyer was knocked out of the game in the 1st quarter. Zappe didn't light it up with just 99 yards, but he did complete 10 of 15 attempts with a 25-yard TD pass to DeVante Parker. That was against a pretty good Green Bay defense. I think he'll be even better having that game experience to go off of. It also helps he's playing a BAD Lions defense. Detroit hasn't been able to stop anybody. They are giving up a staggering 35.3 ppg, 445 ypg and 6.7 yards/play. That's against teams who on average are scoring just 23.1 ppg, 368 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. The saving grace for the Lions this year has been their offense, which has been one of the best in the league. Detroit's scoring 35.0 ppg, putting up 437 ypg and averaging 6.6 yards/play. It's definitely a good offense, but I'm not convinced it's as good as people think. The have feasted on two bad defenses in the Commanders and Seahawks. They only had 24 points at the Vikings and while they scored 35 against the Eagles, that game was 31-14 in favor of Philadelphia less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. The other big thing is the health of this Lions' offense. Detroit won't have stud running back D'Andre Swift. They are down one of their top wide outs in DJ Chark. Their top WR, Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable, as is fellow starter Josh Reynolds. They also have ben hit hard with injuries on the o-line. I think the Lions offense comes back to reality and the Patriots end up winning this game going away. This is definitely a game I might end up putting a little more on before kickoff. Give me Detroit. |
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10-09-22 | Chargers v. Browns +2.5 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 71 h 9 m | Show | |
8* NFL Sharp Money ATS SHOCKER: Cleveland Browns +2.5 I will take my chances with the Browns as a 2.5-point home dog against the Chargers. The betting public can't get to the ticket window fast enough to lay this short number with LA, yet the line is only getting shorter. That on it's own is enough reason to bet Cleveland. With that said, I do think there's more than just a reverse line move that says back the Browns in this one. I think the perception on Cleveland has really taken a hit the last few weeks. First it was the unthinkable collapse at home to the Jets and then last week's 4th quarter meltdown in a 20-23 loss at Atlanta. This team could very easily be 4-0 right now and should at the very least be 3-1. If that were the case I think they would be favored to win this game. I also love the matchup for the Browns. That Chargers defense is really built to stop the pass, as they continue to try and figure out a way to overtake Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC West. They are not good at stopping the run and are facing a Browns defense that comes in No. 2 in the NFL in rushing at 187.3 ypg. I also have a lot of concerns with the Chargers offensive line, which has lost a top tier left tackle for the season in Rashawn Slater. A loss that could really show up this week. Myles Garrett is back at practice and while he's listed as questionable, I got a pretty good feeling he will play. One last thing, I think time of possession could be huge in this game. Cleveland is going to be to take the air out of the football and limit the number of possessions for Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense, especially given how bad LA is running the ball this year. They aren't going to be able to give their defense any kind of significant break. I could see this being very similar to the Chargers game against the Jags, where Jacksonville had the ball for over 38 minutes in a 38-10 win. Give me the Browns +2.5! |
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10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH: Miami Dolphins -3 I will gladly lay the 3-points on the road with the Dolphins as they go to New York to take on the Jets in a AFC East clash. I just feel like we are getting some exceptional value with Miami because of the fact that starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa isn't going to play. I don't see much of a dropoff from Tua to backup Teddy Bridgewater. In relief of Tua last week against the Bengals, Bridgewater completed 14 of 23 (61%) attempts for 193 yards (8.4 yards/attempt). I wasn't surprised at all that the Dolphins lost that game at Cincinnati, as that was about as tough a spot as they will be in all year. Miami had just 3 days to prepare for the Bengals and were coming off a huge upset win at home against Super Bowl favorite Buffalo. A game in which their defense was on the field for 90+ snaps. There's a lot of fraud teams out there in the NFL thru the first 4 weeks and the Jets are definitely one of those teams. New York is somehow 2-0, despite having trailed by 10 or more points in the 4th quarter of every game. Outside of the final minutes of the 4th quarter when it feels like the opposing defense is letting up, the Jets offense hasn't been able to much of anything. New York comes in averaging just 19.0 ppg. They have failed to rush for 100 yards in every game. Miami's defensive numbers don't look great, but a lot of that has to do with their schedule. In their last 3 games they have played 3 of the best QBs in the league in Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. In their one game against an average to below average QB, they held the Patriots to just 7 points and 271 total yards in a 20-7 win. I also think it's worth noting that the Jets somehow managed to sweep the season series with Miami last year. The Dolphins are not going to overlook this game and a lack of focus is the only thing I think could keep Miami from winning this game by at least a field goal. Give me the Dolphins -3! |
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10-09-22 | Texans v. Jaguars -7 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -102 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars -7 I absolutely love the Jaguars as a mere 7-point home favorite against the Texans in Week 5 of the NFL. The Jaguars were really gaining a lot of steam going into last week's big showdown at Philly. In their previous 2 games they had beat the Colts 24-0 at home and rolled the Chargers 38-10 on the road. It started off great against Philly, as Jacksonville jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the 1st quarter, but it was all Eagles from there. Philadelphia scored 29 unanswered points and went on to win the game 29-21. Not only that but the Jags managed just 219 total yards and turned it over 5 times. Sure it doesn't look good, but that's about as bad as Jacksonville could have played and yet they still only lost by 8 despite all the offensive struggles and turnovers. Let's also not ignore the fact that game was played in the rain, which I think really benefited the Eagles and their strong run game. I always like to back good teams who are coming off a bad game, especially when they are facing a bad team like they are here with the Texans. Had Jacksonville won that game, who knows if they would have taken this game seriously. They certainly will having lost the way they did. I know the Texans have been respectable thru their first 4 games, but their first 3 games were against the Colts, Broncos and Bears. While they did tie Indy 20-20, it's worth noting that the Colts offense that couldn't have looked much worse in their 3 other games put up 517 total yards on the Texans. They also trailed 7-27 at the Chargers last week before eventually cutting it 3 and losing by 10. I'm not so sure this isn't the worst team in the league. I don't see Houston's offense being able to get anything going against a pissed off Jacksonville defense and I don't see the Texans being to slow down the Jaguars offense. Give me the Jags -7! |
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10-06-22 | Colts v. Broncos -3 | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 7 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night Football NO-BRAINER: Denver Broncos -3 I think we are getting an exceptional price here with the Broncos laying only a field goal at home against the Colts. The public perception here is we have a couple of teams that are not as good as what we thought coming into this year. Almost everyone was picking the Colts to win the AFC South and there was plenty of buzz about Denver being that team that dethrones the Chiefs in the AFC West. After the first 4 weeks of the season, it's up in the air if these two teams will even make the playoffs. For a lot of people, they will have a tough time feeling good about betting either of these teams, which is why I think we are getting a good price here. I'm way more concerned about the Colts going forward than I am the Broncos. Unlike the Broncos, who I think will only get better as Russell Wilson gets a better understanding of the offense and his new weapons, I'm not sure how Indy is going to turn this thing around. Especially on the offensive side of the ball. The Colts offensive line play has been brutal. They are 27th in the NFL in rushing at 87.8 ypg and Matt Ryan has been sacked 15 times. Their receiving corps lacks a go-to guy and for the time being are without running back Jonathan Taylor, who was really the guy who made this team what it was last year. Keep in mind the run game is what made this team great last year. They finished 2021 ranked No. 2 in the NFL in rushing at 149.9 ypg and were T-9th in sacks allowed at 32. Now Taylor is out with a ankle injury. I just have a hard time seeing that offensive going into the thin air of Denver on just 3-days of rest and performing well against a Broncos defense that is outstanding in the secondary and Top 10 in sacks. Not saying it will be easy for Wilson and that Denver offense against a pretty good Indianapolis defense, but I got a lot more faith in them being able to sustain drives and most importantly finish them off with TDs. Give me the Broncos -3! |
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10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: San Francisco 49ers PK I'm going to back the 49ers as a pick'em at home against the Rams. The 49ers are off to a disappointing 1-2 start with ugly losses on the road to the Bears and Broncos. San Francisco has showed little to no signs of life on offense, which a lot of people are going to see as a big concern against the Rams. On the flip side the Rams, the defending champs, are 2-1, having won their last two after that ugly Week 1 loss to the Bills. They are also coming off an easy cover in a 20-13 win as a 3-point favorite at Arizona. Simply put, everyone is going to being picking LA to win and cover the spread. The books know this. You have to ask yourself, why aren't the Rams a bigger favorite here? It feels like to me the books are taking a stance with San Francisco. I see where they are coming from. As bad as the offense has been for the 49ers, the defense has looked incredible. The 49ers are giving up just 12.3 ppg, 227 ypg and 4.1 yards/play. You can't run on this front. SF is allowing just 2.8 yards/carry and holding teams 2.1 yards/rush under their season average. This to me is a problem for the Rams. LA is one of the worst rushing teams in the league. They are averaging just 72 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry. The 49ers should be able to make the Rams one dimensional. I just don't think LA's offensive line is going to be able to hold up, if Stafford has to drop back every snap. This o-line isn't anything close to the unit they won the Super Bowl with. Stud left tackle Andrew Whitworth in the offseason. Starting center Brian Allen was for the foreseeable future in Week 1. Starting right guard Coleman Shelton has had to move inside to center. Problem is his backups Logan Bruss and Tremayne Anchrum Jr. are both on IR. They will also be without starting left guard Brian Allen (concussion) in this game. One other thing, I think there's this perception that the Rams are this great defensive team. They got some great players, but I question the talent around them. I still think SF is a better offensive team with Jimmy G. As bad as he looked in his first start last week, it's not easy winning at Denver and that Broncos defense is sneaky good. Rams gave up 31 to the Bills and 27 to Falcons. They held the Cardinals to just 12 points, but Arizona had a very respectable 365 total yards in that game. Give me the 49ers PK! |
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10-02-22 | Broncos +2.5 v. Raiders | 23-32 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 28 m | Show | |
8* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Denver Broncos +2.5 I'm going to take the Broncos as a 2.5-point road dog against the Raiders on Sunday. This is being labeled a "must-win" for the Raiders after their 0-3 start. I'm not saying it isn't but the idea that Las Vegas has to win has the public quick to back the Raiders at home laying less than a field goal. I also think there's a lot of negativity towards Denver right now because their offense isn't performing like people expected. I believe the Broncos are the right side in this matchup and I wouldn't be surprised if they won this game going away. Denver's offense is not as bad as people are making it out to be. They should have 30+ points in their opener against the Seahawks and would have had they not fumbled twice on the 1-yard line when going in for a TD. Sure they looked bad last week against the 49ers, but San Francisco has one of the best defenses in the league. The Raiders are not a good defensive team. Las Vegas is giving up 25.7 ppg, 376 ypg and 5.8 yards/play vs teams that are averaging just 19.0 ppg, 337 ypg and 5.3 yards/play. This is a defense that Russell Wilson and that Denver offense should be able to exploit. On the flip side of this, I really like what I've seen out of this Denver defense. The Broncos have a great pass rush and one of the better secondaries in the NFL. They have allowed 177, 154 and 179 passing yards in their first 3 games. Raiders have not been able to run the ball, averaging just 80 ypg on the ground, which means they will be trying to attack the strength of this Broncos defense. Give me Denver +2.5! |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -3.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 2 m | Show | |
8* NFL - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 I will lay the 3.5 with the Colts at home against the Titans in Week 4. While the Colts are coming off a 20-17 upset win over the Chiefs last week as a 4.5-point dog, no one is really giving this team any credit for that victory. All the talk is about how Kansas City gave that game away. No question the Colts caught some breaks in that game, but that's the kind of win that can turn things around for a team. The biggest thing that has held the Indy offense back the last two games is they haven't been able to get the running game going. Just keep in mind the Jags lead the NFL in run defense, giving up just 55.0 ypg on the ground and KC is 9th, allowing just 86.7 ypg. The Titans are 29th in the league, giving up 145 ypg and dead last in the NFL, allowing 5.8 yards/carry. This should be a breakout game for Colts' running back Jonathan Taylor and with Tennessee having to focus all their attention on him, it should also mean a big day for Matt Ryan and the passing game. On the flip side of this, we know the Titans are a team that wants to establish the run with Derrick Henry. Thing is, Henry hasn't looked himself in 2022 and Indy comes into this game allowing a league low 2.6 yards/carry vs the run. I look for the Colts to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and win this game going away. Give me the Colts -3.5! |
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10-02-22 | Jets v. Steelers -3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 9 m | Show |
10* NFL - Bookie Slaughter PLAY OF THE MONTH: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 I love the Steelers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Jets in Week 4. This to me is the perfect buy-low spot on Pittsburgh. The Steelers are just 1-2 to start the year and because their offense has struggled to get anything going, no one really wants anything to do with this team. I believe it's created some big time value with the Steelers laying only a field goal at home against a bad Jets team. New York should be 3-0, but had that crazy comeback in Week 2 at Cleveland. With 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter, the Jets have trailed 24-3, 30-17 and 27-9. They have 4 TDs thru 3 games in the final 2 minutes of regulation, which has made them appear a little more competent than they are. You might be saying, they should be a lot better with Zach Wilson expected to make his first start of the season. I'm not buying it. Wilson is going to be rusty and is facing a very good Steelers defense that knows how to disguise their coverages. I also think people are quick to ignore how well Joe Flacco was playing. Flacco was averaging over 300 yards passing per game. I'm not saying the Steelers offensive problems are going to be fixed, but this is by far the least talented defense they have faced so far this season. Not to mention the defense should help them out with plenty of 3 and outs and short fields off turnovers. This line to me is a good 3-points lower than it should be. Give me the Steelers -3! |
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10-02-22 | Bills -3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 48 h 7 m | Show |
10* NFL - ATS Blowout PLAY OF THE MONTH: Buffalo Bills -3 I will gladly lay the 3-points on the road with the Bills against the Ravens on Sunday. Going into last week's game against the Dolphins, everyone was talking about how good this Buffalo team is and how they got a legit shot to run the table. They end up losing 19-21 on the road to Miami and now it's like everyone isn't so sure about this team. I also think there's a lot of people falling in love with this Ravens team because of how good Lamar Jackson has been. I know a loss is a loss, but if you watched that game last week, Buffalo should have won that game by double-digits. The Bills outgained the Dolphins 497 to 212, had 31 first downs to Miami's 15 and ran 90 plays to the Dolphins 39. This is still the elite Bills team that we saw dominate the Rams on the road in Week 1 and destroy the Titans at home in Week 2. As for the Ravens, Jackson has been incredible to start this season and will likely continue to put up big numbers. The thing is, he's got no choice with how bad this Ravens' defense is. Baltimore was fortunate to only give up 9 points to the Jets in Week 1, as NY had 378 total yards in that game. Ravens then allowed 42 and over 500 yards to the Dolphins at home in Week 2 and last week let Mac Jones and a struggling Patriots offense go up and down the field on them. Thru 3 games the Ravens have the worst pass defense in the NFL and it's not even close. Baltimore is giving up 353.3 ypg. The next worst is the Dolphins, who are giving up 299.3 ypg. Josh Allen and the Bills offense are going to score at will and while they might not be able to shutdown Jackson, Buffalo's defense is going to get more than enough stops to easily cover this spread. Give me the Bills -3! |
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09-25-22 | Packers +1 v. Bucs | 14-12 | Win | 100 | 75 h 59 m | Show | |
8* NFL Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: Green Bay Packers +1 I'm betting the Packers as a 1-point dog against the Bucs in Week 3. I just think given the current state of the Tampa Bay offense, there's too much value here with Green Bay at basically a pick'em. Who knows what Tom Brady is going to have to work with at wide receiver in this game. We know for sure he won't have Mike Evans, who is suspended for this game. Their next 5 WR's on the depth chart are Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Russell Gage, Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller. All 5 of them are questionable. They have also ready lost starting center Ryan Jensen to a season-ending injury from a unit that was down after losing two starters from last year in Cappa and Marpet. Starting left tackle Donovan Smith is questionable and his backup Josh Wells is on IR. The offense wasn't sharp in their opener against the Cowboys. They had just 12 points in that game with less than 5 minutes to play. They scored just 20 against the Saints last week. That game was 3-3 going into the 4th and 7 of their 20 came on a 68-yard pick-six. Packers offense wasn't very good in Week 1, but the defense played pretty well against a good Vikings offense. Green Bay then held the Bears to just 228 and 11 first downs in Week 2. As good as Brady is, it's going to be really hard for TB to keep their offense on the field and finish off drives with TDs. I also think there's some value still with Green Bay due to their ugly showing in Week 1 against the Vikings. It's just what this team does. They did it last year. They lost 38-3 to the Saints and then won 7 in a row. Rodgers and the offense looked much better in Week 2 and will only get better. He is facing a top tier Tampa Bay defense, but he's one of the few QBs where it just doesn't matter how good the defense is, he's going to get his. Give me the Packers +1! |
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09-25-22 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Chargers | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 75 h 37 m | Show |
10* NFL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH: Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 I love the Jaguars as a 7.5-point road dog against the Chargers. If 7 is all your books is offering, I think it's worth paying a little more to get it to 7.5. I just feel like Los Angeles is getting way too much respect from the books in this game. There's not even a guarantee that Justin Herbert is going to play. I know he finished the game against KC, but it was pretty obvious the amount of pain he was in. I don't think even the extra few days they got after playing Thursday is near enough for him to be close to 100% in this game. If he guts it out, you got to think the game plan will be skewed more to the run than it normally is. There's also no guarantee he finishes the game. He takes one good shot to that rib area and he's going to be right back where he started. I really think it's 50/50 if he even plays and it's a massive downgrade from him to backup Chase Daniel. You also got to look at the status of the Chargers offensive line. Right tackle Trey Pipkins was limited in Wednesday's practice and center Corey Linsley didn't practice. We saw this offensive line really regress in that game against KC. Chiefs were getting all kinds of pressure in the 2nd half. This unit will be up against an underrated Jags defensive line that has a top tier pass rusher in Josh Allen. I also think you got to look at what have seen from Jacksonville in their first two games. They should be 2-0. They blew a 22-14 lead with less than 10 minutes to play in a 22-28 loss to Washington in Week 1 and embarrassed the Colts 24-0 last week. All anyone wants to talk about is how bad Indy is after that loss. No one wants to give this team any credit. I like teams who are playing well and go into a game feeling like they are being disrespected. I not only think they can keep it close enough to cover, but I give them a legit shot here of winning this game outright. Give me the Jaguars +7.5! |
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09-25-22 | Ravens v. Patriots +3 | 37-26 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 40 m | Show | |
8* NFL Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: New England Patriots +3 I will gladly take the 3-points with the Patriots as a home dog against the Ravens. Any time you got a Bill Belichick coached team getting points, you really don't have to do any more research. You just bet New England. The Patriots are 14-5 ATS as a home dog since Belichick took over. It's also worth noting that the Pats had to play their first two games on the road, which probably has them undervalued given their home field edge. It's definitely been a profitable spot long term, as the Pats are 30-17 (64%) ATS under Belichick after playing their last two games on the road. Baltimore is also a team that I think is getting too much respect in this spot. Most will just chalk it up as a fluke that the Ravens blew that 35-14 lead in the 4th quarter against the Dolphins last week. Not me. I think Baltimore isn't quite as good defensively as what we expected them to be. You also have a banged up Lamar Jackson, who is dealing with an injury to his throwing elbow. He says he's going to play, but it's bothering him enough he wasn't throwing at all in practice. You got to wonder if he will be as willing to run the ball with that banged up elbow. On top of that, Belichick is going to do everything he can to keep him from making plays with his feet. He's going to make Jackson beat him with his arm. I don't know that he can against this Patriots defense. No one is going to praise them for how the defense looked in last week's win over the Steelers, but I don't think they are getting enough credit for what their defense did against the Dolphins in Week 1. They held Miami to just 20 points on 307 yards. Dolphins had 42 points and 547 yards against the Ravens. Give me the Patriots +3! |
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09-25-22 | Raiders -2 v. Titans | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 35 m | Show | |
8* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Oakland Raiders -2 Even after all the pain the Raiders caused me last Sunday when they somehow managed to fail to cover as a 5.5-point favorite after leading 23-7 going into the 4th quarter, I'm backing them again this week. I'll lay the 2-points with Las Vegas on the road against the Titans. I know both teams are 0-2 and are going to feel like this is a must-win. I just don't think Tennessee is any good. The Raiders in my eyes are by far the better team. My money is on them to find a way to avoid the 0-3 start. Tennessee is so far removed from the team that was the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year. Not that they were anything close to the best team in that conference in 2021. They traded away their only real threat in the passing game in A.J. Brown and didn't improve the defense. Derrick Henry hasn't even remotely resembled the back that from two years ago. I also think Ryan Tannehill is regressing with having to shoulder more of the load. They are just not a good football team. They lost a game they shouldn't have in Week 1 to a average at best Jets team and didn't even look like they belonged on the same field as Buffalo. I don't see the Titans defense being able to get off the field and I think the Raiders front 7 is good enough to not allow Henry to get going and make it really hard on Tennessee to move the ball. Give me the Raiders -2! |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night Football BEST BET: Cleveland Browns -4.5 I like the Browns to cover the 4.5 at home against the Steelers. Historically betting against Tomlin and the Steelers as a division dog has not treated you well. However, a lot of that was with a future HOF quarterback under center. With Mitch Trubisky under center and no TJ Watt on the defensive side of the ball, I think this has to be a lot more lopsided than people think. Yes, the Steelers upset the Bengals in Week 1 as a 7-point dog, but let's not forget they needed the Bengals to miss an extra point for that game to even get to OT. Not to mention they were outgained 432 to 267 in that game. The books were so unimpressed by that win they made the Steelers a home dog last week against a Patriots team that lost 7-20 at Miami. Pittsburgh was able to keep it close in a 14-17 loss, but they never had a lead and got outgained 376 to 243. As for the Browns, I think it's the perfect spot to jump on Cleveland. All anyone is talking about with the Browns is their unfathomable 30-31 loss to the Jets last week, where the Browns went up 30-17 with 1:55 left. Chubb could have went down at the 1 and Cleveland could have just ran out the clock. They then miss the extra points and two plays in the Jets drive they gave up 66-yard TD. NY then recovers an onside kick and goes 9 plays and 53 yards to win the game in regulation. Had Chubb went down and the Browns ran out the clock, the Jets would have finished the game with just 274 total yards and been outgained 405 to 274. Instead it ended up Cleveland only outgained NY 405 to 402! This comes after the Browns took a 20-7 lead into the 4th quarter of their Week 1 matchup against Carolina and needed a 58-yard field goal as time expired to win 26-24. Some might argue losing that way sets up the Browns for a letdown, but I don't think that's the case in Week 2. I think it will have them extremely pissed off and ready to take out that frustration on Pittsburgh. You can be assured their will be no taking their foot off the gas the rest of the season. Pittsburgh's defense just isn't the same without Watt and I could see them having a hard time slowing down the Browns ground game. On the flip side, Cleveland's only given 147 rushing yards over their first two games. I just don't see the Steelers offense being able to do enough to keep this close. Give me the Browns -4.5! |
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09-18-22 | Cardinals v. Raiders -5.5 | 29-23 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 30 m | Show | |
9* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Las Vegas Raiders -5.5 I'm going to take the Raiders as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Cardinals on Sunday. I know you don't want to overreact to what you saw in Week 1, but I can't help myself here laying less than a touchdown with the Raiders. The biggest thing for me is I came into this season way down on the Cardinals, especially early in the year with DeAndre Hopkins serving his suspension. Keep in mind they also lost Christian Kirk in free agency, who led them last year in receiving with 77 catches for 982 yards and 5 scores. One of the guys they were hoping to fill the void was Rondale Moore and he's doubtful. Tight end Zach Ertz is also questionable with a calf injury. That's just the offense. The defense lost one of their stud pass rushers in Chandler Jones and failed to address their biggest need up front on the defensive line. J.J. Watt didn't play in the opener and while he could be back isn't enough to sure up that side of the ball. I just have a hard time seeing this team as it's currently constructed being able to go on the road and compete with a Raiders team that is much better than they showed in Week 1 against the Chargers. Everyone acts like Las Vegas was dominated in their 19-24 loss to LA, but I saw it differently. I thought it was actually impressive that the Raiders had the ball with a chance to take the lead late in the 4th quarter given Derek Carr threw 3 interceptions and was sacked 5 times. The offensive line clearly is a weakness for Las Vegas and was exposed against maybe the pass rushing duo in the NFL in the Chargers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Arizona just doesn't have the talent in their front 7 to expose the Raiders weakness on the o-line and in turn I look for Carr and the Raiders offense to have a similar type of showing as we saw last week with Mahomes and Chiefs doing whatever they wanted on the offensive side of the ball. I'll take my chances with the Raiders defense doing enough for Las Vegas to get at least 6 points of separation when this is all said and done. Give me the Raiders -5.5! |
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09-18-22 | Falcons +10.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
10* NFL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH: Atlanta Falcons +10.5 I love the value with the Falcons as a 10.5-point road dog against the Rams in Week 2. Even though Atlanta came up short in Week 1, losing 26-27 at home to the Saints, I came away from that game very impressed with what I saw from the Falcons. They outgained New Orleans 416 to 385 with over 200 yards rushing and passing. They had 26 first downs to the Saints 18. They also led 26-10 with just under 12 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. The biggest thing that held Atlanta back in that game was the struggles in the red zone. Falcons kicked four field goals. They also fumbled the ball inside the red zone. I don't think this offense gets enough credit for how well they moved the ball against what many expected to be a very good New Orleans defense. A lot of that is also a credit of new starting quarterback Marcus Mariota. He was 20 of 33 for 215 yards (0 picks) and had 72 rushing yards, including a 2-yd TD run. As for the Rams, they lost their home opener in the big season opening matchup against the Bills last Thursday. I get that Buffalo is one of the best teams in the league, but no one expected LA to be that outclassed. Buffalo won the game 31-10 with 4 turnovers. They outgained the Rams 413 to 243. Los Angeles showed zero ability to run the football and Matthew Stafford just didn't look himself. Everyone just expected the Rams to be great again this year after winning it all, but I'm not so sure that's going to be the case. The offensive line is a problem and the defense has a couple of great players surrounded by a bunch of mediocre guys. I just think the Rams are being way overpriced in this game and it's no surprise to me. The defending Super Bowl champs are almost always overvalued the following year and there's massive public perception going into this game that there's no way LA can start 0-2. I'm not about to say Atlanta will win, but I definitely think this thing will be decided by 1 score. Give me the Falcons +10.5! |
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09-18-22 | Jets +7 v. Browns | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 74 h 9 m | Show | |
8* NFL Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: New York Jets +7 I'll take my chances with the Jets cashing in as a 7-point road dog against the Browns in Week 2. Even though we lost with the Panthers in Week 1 against Cleveland, I still think this Browns team is getting a little too much love with Jacoby Brissett as their starting quarterback. The Panthers did nothing but shoot themselves in the foot for the majority of that game. Even after trailing by 14 early and by double-digits going into the 4th, Carolina had a 24-23 lead with 1:13 left to play. If not for Cade York's 58-yard game winning field goal, I think the perception would be a lot different on Cleveland going into Week 2. Even with rushing for 217 yards and 5.6 yards/carry, Cleveland finished the game averaging just 4.8 yards/play. That really speaks to how much the offense is playing behind the 8-ball with Brissett. As for the Jets, I didn't feel they played as poorly as it appeared in Week 1. The Jets lost 24-9 to Baltimore, but they actually outgained the Ravens 380 to 274. Joe Flacco wasn't great, but did manage to thro for 309 yards. No one is giving the Jets defense the love it deserves after holding Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in check. NY was very stingy versus the run, giving up just 63 yards on 21 attempts. Jackson, only had 17 rushing yards on 6 attempts. That right there is probably the biggest reason I like New York in this game. I think the Browns are extremely one-dimensional with their run game until Watson gets back from suspension. If the Jets run defense can keep the Browns from racking up 1st downs on the ground, they not only are going to keep this within 7 but will be right there with a chance to win outright. Give me the Jets +7! |
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09-15-22 | Chargers v. Chiefs -4 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 38 m | Show |
10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas City Chiefs -4 I got no problem laying the 4-points with the Chiefs at home on Thursday Night Football to kickoff Week 2. Kansas City to me was the most impressive team in Week 1. They went on the road and annihilated Kyler Murray and the Cardinals 44-21. It wasn't even that close, as KC led 37-7 going into the 4th quarter. Chiefs outgained Arizona 488 to 282. They averaged 7.4 yards/play while giving up just 4.5 yards/play. Patrick Mahomes was sensational with 360 yards and 5 TDs. Keep in mind this is a Chiefs offense a ton of people questioned being able to produce after trading away their No. 1 WR in Tyreek Hill. For whatever reason Mahomes just doesn't get the praise he deserves. He's the best at the position right now and has more weapons to work with than he ever has. What also gets lost in that win is how good the defense played, holding Murray and the Cardinals under 300 total yards. That's a defense that has gotten a lot of young talented guys sprinkled at all 3 levels. I see them being much improved and I really think they are going to feed off the home crowd at Arrowhead. Chargers were the pick a lot of people had to dethrone KC in the AFC West. The Chiefs are well aware of that and I think they will be out to send a message. LA is getting a lot of praise for their Week 1 win over the Raiders, but they only outgained LV 355 to 320 and had 5.5 yards/play to the Raiders 5.7 yards/play. Derek Carr doesn't throw 3 picks and the Raiders probably win that game. Looking like LA will be without top wide out Keenan Allen and also one of their top corners in KC Jackson. Also much tougher on the road in these Thursday games playing on just 3 days of rest. Give me the Chiefs -4! |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
8* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Seattle Seahawks +7 Not a huge bet for me, but I'll throw some cash on the Seahawks catching a touchdown at home against the Broncos. I'm not as high on Denver as some others. Russell Wilson is without a doubt an upgrade at quarterback. I just don't think it's a lock he comes in and this offense just takes off. Much like his days in Seattle, Wilson will be taking snaps behind another poor offensive line. I also don't think it's close in terms of the talent he has in the passing game. Sutton and Jeudy have some promise, but they aren't on the same level as Metcalf and Lockett. I also worry about that offensive line in a hostile road environment. Not only is MNF, but this game means more given the history with Wilson. Seattle isn't getting any love coming into this season. That should have them coming out in this one with a huge chip on their shoulder. Geno Smith is far from elite, but he's not horrible and this should be one of the better rushing teams in the league. Denver's run defense was a weakness last year and I don't see it being all that improved. Give me the Seahawks +7! |
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09-11-22 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC West PLAY OF THE MONTH: Los Angeles Chargers -3 I love the Chargers as a 3-point home favorite against the Raiders. I think there's a little too much hype coming into this season with Las Vegas. Everyone focuses on the big additions they made, most notably adding wide out Davante Adams, but it's not like the Raiders didn't have a great passing attack last year. They were 6th in the NFL in passing. The problem was they couldn't run the ball and I got major concerns for them up front on the offensive line. Them wanting to throw the football, plays right into the strength of the Chargers defense. LA was No. 12 vs the pass compared to No. 30 vs the run in 2021. I really think the secondary for the Chargers is one of the best in the league. I think they will be better against the runs with the guys they added up front in their 3-4 and the pass rush figures to also get a boost with Khalil Mack now lining up opposite of Joey Bosa. On the flip side of the ball, I think LA is going to torment defenses. Justin Herbert is only going to keep getting better, which is scary when you consider he's already thrown for 9,350 yards and 69 TDs in 32 games. I have a lot more confidence in him making big plays against the Raiders dynamic pass rush duo of Max Crosby and Chandler Jones. A lot of that has to do with the lack of talent LV has around them. I also have concerns with how they will transition into their 3-4 look after using the 4-3 for years. Either way, only having to lay 3 at home with LA is too good to pass up. Give me the Chargers -3! |
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09-11-22 | Ravens -6.5 v. Jets | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 93 h 36 m | Show | |
8* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Baltimore Ravens -6.5 I got no problem laying the 6.5 on the road with Baltimore in Week 1, as they will fly to New York to take on the Jets. I know people aren't exactly dogging on the Ravens coming into this season, but I don't think they are getting near the respect they deserve. People forget about all the injuries they had to overcome last year. They finished just 8-9 and had 6 losses decided by fewer than a touchdown, including 5 by 3 or fewer. Lamar Jackson is special and I look for him to bounce back in a big way after a disappointing season last year. On the defense, I expect the Ravens to be one of the top units in the league. They were No. 1 last year against the run, but were dead last against the pass. They won't be last against the pass again. They get back stud corner Marcus Peters after he missed all of last year, added in a really good safety in Marcus Williams and used a 1st round pick on Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton. You also have a Jets team that I think is a year away from competing. Yes, New York had a great draft this offseason, but expecting all those guys to come in and contribute at the level needed right away is asking a lot. They are also starting the season without Zach Wilson at quarterback and instead will be sending the old and washed up Joe Flacco. I don't see that offense being able to much of anything against this Ravens defense. Give me Baltimore -6.5! |
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09-11-22 | Browns v. Panthers -1 | 26-24 | Loss | -120 | 93 h 36 m | Show | |
9* NFL - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Carolina Panthers -1 I'll take my chances with the Panthers as a slim -1 home favorite against the Browns. I don't think Carolina is getting near the respect they deserve to start the season. They are one of my favorite sleeper teams coming into 2022. I not only think they will be in the playoff picture, but I give them an outside shot of winning the NFC South. Tampa Bay still has Tom Brady, but he's one year older and playing behind a much worse offensive line. The Saints got a ton of talent, but no longer have Sean Payton to steer that offense. The Falcons are in full on rebuild mode. Say what you want about Baker Mayfield, he's a massive upgrade at the quarterback position for Carolina. Last year the Panthers had to make do with either Sam Darnold, Cam Newton or PJ Walker under center. Combined those 3 had a horrific 14 to 21 TD to INT ratio. Mayfield, who everyone was ragging on last year had a 17-13 TD-INT ratio and did that playing at less than 100%. A lot of people forget how good Mayfield was when he was healthy in 2020, throwing for over 3,500 yards with a 26-8 TD-INT ratio. Not only do they get an upgrade at quarterback, but at least to start the season they have a healthy Christian McCaffrey at running back. Injuries have shortened his last two seasons, but in 2019 he played 16 games and rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 touchdowns, while also catching 116 passes for 1,005 yards and 4 scores. They get back their top two WRs in DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson, while also adding in one of Mayfields old teammates in Rashad Higgins and trading for Laviska Shenault, who has 121 catches for 1,219 yards in two seasons playing for a bad Jaguars team. Not to mention they completely revamped their offensive line and should be greatly improved up front. I also don't think people realize how good this Panthers defense was last year. While they ranked a mere 21st in scoring defense, giving up 23.8 ppg, they were No. 2 in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 305.9 ypg. They had the No. 4 ranked pass defense, despite losing stud rookie 1st round corner Jaycee Horn to an injury after just 3 games. As for the Browns, they got some nice pieces on both sides of the ball, but until Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension, they are going to be limited offensively with Jacoby Brissett. I really think they are going to be a little too one dimensional with the run game and really struggle to win games early on in the year. Give me the Panthers -1! |
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09-11-22 | Steelers +6.5 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 92 h 30 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH: Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5 I really like the Steelers as a 6.5-point dog against the Bengals in Week 1. The Bengals shocked everyone last year not only getting to the playoffs but making it all the way to the Super Bowl. I just feel it has them way overvalued coming into the 2022 season. At the same time, I think the Steelers are one of the more underrated teams in the league to start the year. Losing a Hall of Fame quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger isn't as big a deal as some might think. Roethlisberger's skills and mobility really declined over the last couple of seasons. I might look back at this a couple weeks from now and wonder what I was thinking, but I got high expectations for Mitchell Trubisky as the new starter. He'll take over an offense that returns one of the best young backs in the NFL in Najee Harris, who rushed for 1,200 yards and 7 scores and had 74 catches for 467 yards as a rookie. Doing so behind a bad offensive line. Pittsburgh invested this offseason in improving that offensive line, which I think goes greatly unnoticed. They also get back their top 3 pass catchers in wide outs Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, as well as tight end Pat Freiermuth. I also really liked what I saw out of rookie wide out George Pickens in preseason and expect him to make an immediate impact. The defense should be good. Last year they struggled against the run, but that was due to them losing two guys up front. Nose tackle Tyson Alualu only played in 2 games and defensive end Stephon Tuitt didn't play at all after the death of brother. They improve against the run and this unit has a chance to be elite. They were No. 9 against the pass last year and led the league with 55 sacks. I'm not about to sit here and say the Bengals Super Bowl run was a fluke and they are going to take this major step back. As long as Joe Burrow is healthy, this team will be in the playoff mix. With that said, it's a lot different going into a season with a chip on shoulder than it is coming in with a target on your back. I think this line at the most should be a field goal, giving us way too much value to pass up with Pittsburgh. Give me the Steelers +6.5! |
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02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Super Bowl MAX UNIT Top Play (Rams -4) I love the Rams at -4 in the Super Bowl. It's been a great ride for the Bengals to get to this point, but I believe they have met their match in this one. I'm a big Joe Burrow fan and think he's going to be a top tier guy for years to come, but I don't think he's going to play well in this game. Two big reasons for that. The biggest being the guys the Rams have up front on the defensive line. I think the likes of Aaron Donald, Von Miller and company are going to have a field day in this game. The other big thing is the Rams having Jalen Ramsey to shadow Jamar Chase. I get the Bengals have some other guys, but I think without Chase being a huge factor, the Bengals are going to find it really hard to score. On the flip side of this, I think the Rams are going to be able to run the football and really open up the playbook against this Cincinnati defense. Give me Los Angeles -4! |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - AFC Champ Game MAX UNIT Top Play (Chiefs -7) I'll gladly take my chances with the Chiefs covering the 7-point spread at home against the Bengals. I know Cincinnati beat KC at home in Week 17, but they were pretty fortunate to do so, as the Chiefs scored just 3-points in the 2nd Half of that game. KC also had a horrible game-plan defensively going into that game, as they let Chase run wild on their secondary. They won't make that mistake again and this Chiefs defense is much better at home than on the road. As good as Burrow is, he's not Josh Allen, who is a much bigger threat to run. You also got Mahomes on the other side, who has been incredible in the postseason. I also think the experience with KC in this big game is a bigger advantage than people think. Give me the Chiefs -7! |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs -1 | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Bills/Chiefs VEGAS INSIDER (Chiefs -1) I will gladly take my chances here with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at basically a pick'em at home against the Bills in Sunday's AFC Divisional Round showdown. Everyone has fallen in love with Josh Allen and the Bills after what they did to the Pats last week. Allen basically threw the equivalent of a perfect game in baseball. How many guys do you see throw perfect games in back-to-back games. I think it's going to be a lot tougher for Allen and company on the road against a much improved Chiefs defense. I know the Bills won at KC earlier this season, but that was back in Week 5. At that point the Chiefs were on pace to be one of the worst defensive teams in NFL history and the offense was struggling to do anything. Mahomes and the Chiefs have figured things out and this is the time of year where they play their best football. Crazy to think, but KC is going to have the chip on their shoulder with all this talk about Buffalo. Give me the Chiefs -1! |
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01-22-22 | 49ers +6 v. Packers | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - 49ers/Packers PLAYOFFS PLAY OF THE WEEK (49ers +6) I love the value with the 49ers as a 6-point dog against the Packers. This just feels like the same story that we have seen with Green Bay posting this great regular-season record after feasting on a horrible division and sneaking out several close wins. I just don't know that I believe the Packers are the best team in the NFC. I certainly don't think they should be laying close to a touchdown against a 49ers team that seems to have really turned a corner in the 2nd half of this season. The San Fran defense looks a lot like the unit that carried them to the Super Bowl two years ago. The key here is Garoppolo and can/will he take care of the football. I think he will, as I think the 49ers will be able to run the ball on this Green Bay defense. It's also not like he can't have a turnover. He just can't have multiple big mistakes. If he takes care of the ball, I think the 49ers can win this game. Give me San Francisco +6! |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Cards/Rams Wild Card MAX Unit Top Play (Rams -3.5) I just can't help myself but to lay the 3.5-points with the Rams against the Cardinals. I'm still trying to figure out how LA blew that big lead against the 49ers in Week 18, but it's not something I'm going to keep me from backing them here. I just don't know how you can trust the Cardinals in the postseason. Arizona was never as good as their great start to the season and have shown nothing to make you think they are going to turn this thing around. They went just 1-4 to close out the season with a division title on the line. The Rams are just too good defensively and Arizona is missing too many pieces on offense, most notably wide out DeAndre Hopkins. Just too much pressure on Kyler Murray without Hopkins to bail him out. Give me the Rams -3.5! |
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01-09-22 | Chargers -3 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -109 | 103 h 31 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - AFC West GAME OF THE YEAR (Chargers -3) I will gladly lay the 3-points with the Chargers as they head to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders. I know the playoffs don't start until next week, but this is essentially a playoff game with what's at stake. The winner will secure a Wild Card spot, while the loser's season will come to an end. I just don't view these two teams as equals. Even given the spot they are in, where they have to win to make the postseason, I view this Chargers team as one of the better teams in the AFC. They have 3 road wins on their resume vs playoff teams in the Chiefs, Eagles and Bengals. They also have a couple of 3-point losses to the Patriots and Cowboys, as well as an OT loss to the Chiefs. The Raiders don't have near the resume and if we are being honest, the only reason they are even in this spot is injuries and Covid. In their last 3 games they have beat a decimated Browns team 17-15 with Cleveland starting Nick Mullens at quarterback. They played the Broncos minus Teddy Bridgewater and won 17-13 and last week Carson Wentz was in Covid protocol all week before getting cleared to play. Now they have to face one of the top QBs in the game in Justin Herbert and the top tier of the league have really had their way with this Raiders defense. While Herbert only threw for 222 yards in the fist meeting between these two teams, he was an efficient 25 of 38 with 3 TDs. LA was also doing as they pleased on the ground with 168 rushing yards. The Raiders could only manage 213 total yards in that first game against the Chargers and that was back when they had Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs, who had 110 of the 196 yards Derek Carr threw for in that game. I just don't think Las Vegas has the fire-power offensively to keep pace in this game. LA has scored at least 28 points in 5 straight games. The Raiders are only averaging 16.0 ppg in their last 5, eclipsing 20 just once during this stretch. Give me the Chargers -3! |
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01-09-22 | Saints -4 v. Falcons | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 6 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Saints -4) I will gladly take my chances with the Saints as a mere 4-point road favorite against the Falcons. New Orleans needs to win and get some help to make the playoffs, but it's definitely a possibility. The Saints need the 49ers to lose at the Rams and LA needs to win that game to lock up the NFC West and No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Falcons aren't a very good team and in a really bad spot, having just watched their playoff hopes come to an end with last week's loss at Buffalo. I just don't see Atlanta being all that interested in this game and I also think that Falcons offense is in for a long day against a Saints defense that is really playing well down the stretch. Give me New Orleans -4! |
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01-08-22 | Chiefs -11 v. Broncos | 28-24 | Loss | -103 | 49 h 22 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Chiefs/Broncos VEGAS INSIDER (Chiefs -11) I'm laying the big number with the Chiefs on the road against the Broncos. I get this is a division game and these two fanbases can't stand each other, but KC is the only team with something to play for, they are clearly the better team and they are decimated with injuries to close out the year. Denver won't have starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and while Drew Lock isn't horrible, he does tend to force some things and turn the ball over. Denver's defense will also have to try to contain Patrick Mahomes and the CHiefs high-powered offense without their two starting corners. Chiefs need to win this game to ensure they get at least the No. 2 seed and keep their slim hopes alive for that No. 1 seed (need Titans to lose at Texans). I really like how this team has been playing down the stretch, despite last week's slip up against the Bengals. I don't think this game is close for long. Give me KC -11! |
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01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Browns/Steelers MAX UNIT Top Play (Steelers -2.5) I don't know how you don't take the Steelers laying less than a field goal at home in this spot. With the Chargers win on Sunday, Cleveland was eliminated from playoff contention. This has really been an epic fall from the top for the Browns, who have gone from Super Bowl contenders to completely out of it with 2 games to play. I get it's the Steelers and they could eliminate their rivals with a win, I just don't think that outweighs the disappointment for Cleveland right now. Even more so with the game being played in Pittsburgh. Speaking of where the game is being played. I don't think the Steelers homefield advantage gets enough love. Pittsburgh is 5-2-1 at home compared to 2-5 on the road. Browns are just 2-5 on the road compared to 5-3 at home. I just can't come up with many scenarios where the Steelers don't win this game by at least a touchdown. Give me Pittsburgh -2.5! |
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01-02-22 | Cardinals v. Cowboys -5 | 25-22 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 17 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Cowboys -5) This feels like a massive square play, but I can't help myself. I just think there's some value here with the Cowboys laying less than a touchdown at home against the Cardinals. I was on Arizona in last week's loss at home to the Colts. I really thought we were going to see that team respond in a big way after that embarrassing loss to the Lions. Instead they can't beat a Colts team that lost 80% of their offensive line and best player on defense. I don't think people realize how hard it is for a team to compete with that much turnover in such a short period of time on the offensive line. To me the only think you can do right now is keep betting against the Cardinals, at least until they show us anything that makes you think they are the team we thought they were in their 7-0 start to the season. They remind me a lot of the Steelers team from last year, who had a bit of a fraudulent 11-0 start before ending the regular season 1-4 over their final 5 games. The other big thing for me is that I believe the Cowboys have got some of that swagger back offensively. If Dak doesn't get hurt and go through that midseason lull, the media wouldn't be able to stop talking about this unit. I also think they got a very underrated defense that has a lot of guys who are really good at getting after the quarterback. I think the Cowboys will be out to make a statement in what feels like their final tune-up before the postseason. I think if they lay a dud down the stretch, it's next week at Philly when maybe the rest some guys. Give me Dallas -5! |
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01-02-22 | Chiefs -4 v. Bengals | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
50* (NFL) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Chiefs -4) I love the Chiefs -4 at Cincinnati on Sunday. It took a little longer than expected, but Kansas City is finally playing like that elite team we all grew accustomed to the past two years when they made the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes and the offense has found their rhythm and the KC defense has been playing at a really high level for months now. As good as Cincinnati looked in their win over the Ravens, I still don't trust this team in a big spot like this against one of the league's best. I also think this game is personal for Mahomes, as there's been a lot of chatter in the media about Burrow being the better quarterback in this matchup. I like Burrow, but that's laughable to think he's on the same level as Mahomes. I don't see Cincinnati's defense being able to hold up against the Chiefs offensive attack and I think the bigger story here will be KC's ability to get after Burrow with Jones, Clark and Ingram, as the Bengals just don't have a lot of talent on that offensive line. Give me the Chiefs -4! |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Saints | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Dolphins/Saints MAX UNIT Top Play (Dolphins -3) I just think the Saints defense is getting a little too much respect coming off last week's performance where they shutout Tom Brady and the Bucs. I get it's a worse offense they will be facing in the Dolphins, but this is also a very underrated Miami team. The Dolphins have won 6 straight and covered 5 of those. You also got to look at what the Saints are going to have to overcome offensively. They are going to start rookie Ian Book in this game. Hard to expect a lot out of him, especially against this Miami defense. I think getting 1st downs is going to be a struggle. Miami should have great field position throughout and as long as they take care of the ball they should win this game. Give me the Dolphins -3! |
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12-26-21 | Bears +6.5 v. Seahawks | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 32 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Bears +6.5) I really like the value here with the Bears as a 6.5-point road dog against the Seahawks. Seattle has no business laying this kind of number in this spot. The Seahawks just had their playoff hopes put to rest in last week's 10-20 loss at the Rams. Even if they win out, the best they can do is 8-9. I could definitely see this team throwing in the towel given all they have gone through this year. It also feels like it's the end of an era in some way for Seattle. Hard to believe that both Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson will be back. Some might see Chicago starting Nick Foles as a bad thing, but I'm not so sure Foles shouldn't have been the guy from the start. Andy Dalton gives you next to nothing and Fields isn't quite ready. More than anything, the quarterback play can't be much worse. Give me the Bears +6.5! |
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12-26-21 | Rams v. Vikings +3 | 30-23 | Loss | -112 | 94 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Vikings +3) I'll take the 3-points with the Vikings at home, as they get ready to host the Rams on Sunday. I just think Los Angeles is bit overvalued coming into this game, as I think this line should be closer to a pick'em. I know a win is a win and a loss is a loss, but this Vikings team deserves to better than 7-7. Every single one of their losses have come by 8 points or less with 5 of them coming by 4 or fewer. A few bounces go the other way and they could easily be sitting here with the same record as these Rams and in that scenario they certainly wouldn't be a dog at home. I also don't love the spot for LA. While the Vikings are on a short week of rest after playing Monday, the Rams are only going to have 4 days to prepare for this game and it's really only 3 when you figure in the travel. On top of that, it's an early window game, which is always tough on west coast teams that have to travel east across multiple time zones. I know the Rams are still trying to get that No. 1 seed, but it's not like they can feel great about catching Green Bay. While they are just 1-game back of the Packers in the standings, their head-to-head loss to the Packers means they have to make up 2 games with 3 to play. Minnesota is clearly the more desperate team in this game, as they are currently tied with the Eagles and Saints for the 3rd and final Wild Card spot in the NFC. Rams are just 3-11 ATS since McVay took over after 3 or more consecutive wins and just 2-9 ATS when coming off 2 or more straight wins the last two seasons. Give me the Vikings +3! |
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12-26-21 | Ravens +3 v. Bengals | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -108 | 73 h 29 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Ravens +3) This is a prime example of how hard it is to bet the NFL early. I was more than fine with Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback. In fact, I would have prefered it. Next thing you know he goes down to Covid. Unfortunately I'm stuck with a bad number on the site, but I have got down again on Baltimore at 7.5 and would still recommend it at +7. Baltimore will have Josh Johnson at quarterback. Not ideal, but it could be worse. Johnson didn't look bad in his limited action with the Jets earlier this season. He had that game against Indy where he threw for 317 yards and 3 TDs. It's also tough on the opposing team when a team looks like they are dead in the water. You just don't get as jacked up for a game you feel like you should win no problem. On the flip side, the Ravens got nothing to lose here. They are going to come out firing, especially playing with revenge from that ugly loss the Bengals handed them on their home field earlier this season. Give me Baltimore plus the points! |
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12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 59 m | Show |
50* (NFL) - Colts/Cardinals MAX UNIT Top Play (Cardinals -1) I just think the price is too good to pass up with the Cardinals. Arizona has went from being the talk of the NFL with their 7-0 start, but they have lost a lot of that hype going just 3-4 over their last 7 games. I was one that never thought the Cardinals were as good as their great start, but this is a very good football team and one that I think is primed for a big bounce back after an UGLY loss to the Lions last week. As for the Colts, they have now become that team everyone can't stop talking about. Indy has won 5 of their last 6 and are fresh off a strong 27-17 win at home against the Patriots, who coming in were the team everyone was riding. I think Arizona's ability to contain Jonathan Taylor and when he's not the dominating part of that offense they can be exposed. Cardinals should be at least a field goal favorite here. Give me Arizona -1! |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans +3.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
40* (NFL) - Smart Money ATS MASSACRE (Titans +3.5) I got to take the Titans at +3.5 at home against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football. I know Tennessee has fallen off quite a bit since losing Henry, but they have actually ran it pretty well without their big horse. Titans had over 200 yards on the ground in their last game against the Steelers and 270 a couple of games back against the Pats. I also think it's HUGE for that Titans offense to get back their go-to-guy on the outside in wide out A.J. Brown. Tennessee is also not an easy place to play and these home teams have quite a big edge in these Thursday Night games. Give me the Titans +3.5! |
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Brandon Lee NFL Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -9 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
01-15-23 | Ravens +8.5 v. Bengals | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
01-14-23 | Chargers -2 v. Jaguars | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
01-08-23 | Patriots +7.5 v. Bills | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 12 m | Show | |
01-08-23 | Jets v. Dolphins -2 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 66 h 24 m | Show |
01-07-23 | Titans +6.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
01-01-23 | Jets -1 v. Seahawks | 6-23 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
01-01-23 | Browns v. Commanders -2 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 30 m | Show | |
12-26-22 | Chargers v. Colts +4 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 54 h 5 m | Show |
12-24-22 | Raiders v. Steelers -2 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 69 h 22 m | Show | |
12-24-22 | Seahawks +10 v. Chiefs | 10-24 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 34 m | Show | |
12-24-22 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
12-22-22 | Jaguars v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
12-18-22 | Titans +3 v. Chargers | Top | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 76 h 16 m | Show |
12-18-22 | Patriots v. Raiders +1 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 76 h 59 m | Show | |
12-18-22 | Lions v. Jets | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 21 m | Show | |
12-18-22 | Cowboys v. Jaguars +4 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 73 h 48 m | Show |
12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 2 m | Show | |
12-15-22 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
12-11-22 | Bucs v. 49ers -3 | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
12-11-22 | Jets +10 v. Bills | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
12-11-22 | Jaguars v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 36-22 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
12-05-22 | Saints +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
12-04-22 | Dolphins v. 49ers -4.5 | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
12-04-22 | Steelers +1 v. Falcons | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
11-28-22 | Steelers v. Colts -2 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
11-27-22 | Bears v. Jets -4 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 133 h 57 m | Show | |
11-27-22 | Bengals -1 v. Titans | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 133 h 59 m | Show |
11-24-22 | Patriots +3 v. Vikings | Top | 26-33 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 36 m | Show |
11-20-22 | Cowboys -1 v. Vikings | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 73 h 26 m | Show |
11-20-22 | Raiders v. Broncos -2.5 | 22-16 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 16 m | Show | |
11-20-22 | Jets v. Patriots -3 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 70 h 14 m | Show | |
11-20-22 | Eagles v. Colts +7 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 70 h 58 m | Show | |
11-17-22 | Titans +3.5 v. Packers | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
11-13-22 | Colts +5 v. Raiders | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 3 m | Show | |
11-13-22 | Saints v. Steelers +1.5 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show | |
11-13-22 | Broncos v. Titans -1.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 57 m | Show | |
11-13-22 | Seahawks +3 v. Bucs | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 65 h 23 m | Show | |
11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
11-06-22 | Rams v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 74 h 49 m | Show |
11-06-22 | Panthers +7.5 v. Bengals | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 48 m | Show | |
11-06-22 | Raiders -1.5 v. Jaguars | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 47 m | Show | |
11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans +13.5 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns +3.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 31 h 6 m | Show |
10-30-22 | Bears +9.5 v. Cowboys | 29-49 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 6 m | Show | |
10-30-22 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 71 h 19 m | Show |
10-30-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 4 m | Show |
10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos -1 | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 46 m | Show | |
10-23-22 | Lions +7 v. Cowboys | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 39 m | Show | |
10-23-22 | Packers -4.5 v. Washington Commanders | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 27 m | Show | |
10-23-22 | Giants v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 40 m | Show |
10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | 24-20 | Loss | -120 | 89 h 4 m | Show | |
10-16-22 | Panthers +10.5 v. Rams | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -120 | 89 h 53 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Cardinals v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 89 h 51 m | Show |
10-16-22 | Bucs v. Steelers +9.5 | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 86 h 4 m | Show | |
10-16-22 | Jaguars +2.5 v. Colts | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 56 m | Show | |
10-09-22 | Eagles -5 v. Cardinals | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 40 m | Show | |
10-09-22 | Lions v. Patriots -3 | 0-29 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
10-09-22 | Chargers v. Browns +2.5 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 71 h 9 m | Show | |
10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
10-09-22 | Texans v. Jaguars -7 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -102 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
10-06-22 | Colts v. Broncos -3 | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 7 m | Show |
10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
10-02-22 | Broncos +2.5 v. Raiders | 23-32 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 28 m | Show | |
10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -3.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 2 m | Show | |
10-02-22 | Jets v. Steelers -3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 9 m | Show |
10-02-22 | Bills -3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 48 h 7 m | Show |
09-25-22 | Packers +1 v. Bucs | 14-12 | Win | 100 | 75 h 59 m | Show | |
09-25-22 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Chargers | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 75 h 37 m | Show |
09-25-22 | Ravens v. Patriots +3 | 37-26 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 40 m | Show | |
09-25-22 | Raiders -2 v. Titans | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 35 m | Show | |
09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
09-18-22 | Cardinals v. Raiders -5.5 | 29-23 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 30 m | Show | |
09-18-22 | Falcons +10.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
09-18-22 | Jets +7 v. Browns | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 74 h 9 m | Show | |
09-15-22 | Chargers v. Chiefs -4 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 38 m | Show |
09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
09-11-22 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
09-11-22 | Ravens -6.5 v. Jets | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 93 h 36 m | Show | |
09-11-22 | Browns v. Panthers -1 | 26-24 | Loss | -120 | 93 h 36 m | Show | |
09-11-22 | Steelers +6.5 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 92 h 30 m | Show |
02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs -1 | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
01-22-22 | 49ers +6 v. Packers | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
01-09-22 | Chargers -3 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -109 | 103 h 31 m | Show |
01-09-22 | Saints -4 v. Falcons | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 6 m | Show | |
01-08-22 | Chiefs -11 v. Broncos | 28-24 | Loss | -103 | 49 h 22 m | Show | |
01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
01-02-22 | Cardinals v. Cowboys -5 | 25-22 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 17 m | Show | |
01-02-22 | Chiefs -4 v. Bengals | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
12-27-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Saints | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
12-26-21 | Bears +6.5 v. Seahawks | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 32 m | Show | |
12-26-21 | Rams v. Vikings +3 | 30-23 | Loss | -112 | 94 h 26 m | Show | |
12-26-21 | Ravens +3 v. Bengals | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -108 | 73 h 29 m | Show |
12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 59 m | Show |
12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans +3.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |